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Barbados tropical wave better organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:10 PM GMT on July 12, 2006

A tropical wave about 150 miles east of Barbados has become better organized this morning. A sudden burst of intense thunderstorms developed between 6am and 10am EDT, and a surface circulation is now apparent near 12.5N 57W on visible satellite imagery. The center is exposed on the west side due to strong upper-level winds from the west, and the latest 8am EDT winds shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin showed wind shear of 10-20 knots over the disturbance. Weaker upper-level winds just to the disturbance's south have pushed northwards, creating an opportunity for the system to develop. (The University of Wisconsin wind shear product is updated every three hours, and the 11am EDT analysis is due out around 1 pm EDT).

The system is moving west at 15 mph, and should bring heavy rain and wind gusts of 30-40 mph to Barbados this afternoon and St. Vincent and St. Lucia tonight. It will be very interesting to see what the wind and pressure readings look like from these islands today. It's possible that this system will become a tropical depression later today, but I doubt that it will make it to tropical storm status, despite its healthier appearance on satellite imagery this morning. The area covered by intense thunderstorms is very small, and it would take only a modest increase in wind shear to tear the system apart. There's plenty of wind shear to the system's north and west, and the chances of it surviving beyond Thursday are low.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of the tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.


Figure 2. Model forecast tracks for the tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

The rest of the tropics are quiet. A tropical wave is pushing ashore into South Florida, and will bring heavy rains there. An upper-level low is spinning over the central Gulf of Mexico, but this low is not expected to develop, due to high wind shear. None of the major computer models are forecasting any tropical storm formation in the Atlantic for the next six days. Wind shear is forecast to remain high over most of the tropical Atlantic this week, then gradually decrease for the remainder of the month.

I'll have an update on the Barbados system this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

WX456 I don't believe that the system your looking at, that is approaching the Lesser Antiles is actually 96L. That system was ripped apart by wind shear 48 hours ago when it entered the E. Caribbean. The system your now seeing will, or should be designated 97L or 98L depending upon what they do with Florida Straits system today.
Hmmm...96L not dead quite yet, it seems.
GetReal, the 96L imagery from the Navy is right on top of this thing...
Thank you as always for the update Dr. M.
I admit that I maybe wrong, but that is not the same system that was there last Friday when 96L was issued.
The thunderstorms will decrease as it moves to a more unfavorable environment in a couple of hours.
Dr. Masters, if you could briefly touch on the small system approaching the Florida straights, and the fate of the ULL in the GOM....

as always, thanks for the wonderful tropical forecast! :)
Another pleasant day in the bayou, if you like this sort of thing. I think I'll slip out of the office early and go geocaching in BR.

CO
GR, I think that is still 96L. It got very hard to recognize there for awhile, but I think it is the same.
That is 96L, judging from initial position of last nights 0Z GFDL run on 96L



The OZ GFDL lost 96L in 6 hours.
Geocaching is a lot of fun, Cajun. I haven't done that is over a year. I need to knock the dust off of the ol GPS and do that! I imagine the bayou would be a good place to hide (and find) treasure.
96L visible loop, custom made, by me, with love, w/ a little help from NASA's interactive satellite page.
last time I went Geocaching I buried my GPS... dang! did I ever have a hard time finding it!
Hello all. New here, but I've been enjoying all the comments this season. I think it's a tribute to all that even with nothing going on but some blobs, you all can still keep things entertaining. I've never been so excited about pop-up blobs in all my life.

imho, if it were not for the ull in the GOM, i believe that the Bah blob possible could have developed into something more formidable than a thundershower....

but with the shear from the ull, seems no hope for development atm..... if the ull pulls away a bit, at least maybe we could get some rain to the panhandle? know you guysngals need some! ;)
GulfScottsMan,

I don't think that the ULL in the SW Gulf is going to transisition to the surface, if that's what you're implying. Right now it is providing an outflow channel to Carlotta. As she deepens and becomes a stronger wame core system the UUL will deepen and will become a stronger cold core system.
good morining all!

the Eastern Pacific is really hot this morning.
hi all,,

this is FUNNY

the model
Link

has that storm hitting NO looks like the same spot
that would be nice if the east pacific storms would be in the carrib
LOL at snotly...

BTW, don't hide your wife's Christmas present in the woods and make her find it with GPS... they MIGHT not appreciate the valuable experience you're trying to give them.
Whats the chance of 96L becoming a depression today????????
Again, we are clouding our forecast judgement by looking at 2005 season. Erase it from your memory!..LOL
Well if the cmc does have a correct prediction, it doesn't look so bad. just a good soaking.
Although I don't really see anything funny about it.

Put
Flweather,

It's possible that this system will become a tropical depression later today, but I doubt that it will make it to tropical storm status, despite its healthier appearance on satellite imagery this morning. Dr. M
code1, thanks, but i dont understand why it cant become a storm, becuase the shear maps show that when it gets near hispanoila, the shear is suppost to die down
FLWeather,
The Barbados wave must be kept an eye on...If it rides under that 40 kt shear it could develop further and it gets near Hispanola watch out....but I agree with Dr.M we need to see Wind and pressure first.
how come the NHC update isnt out yet?
But then it will interact with land.
Dr. Masters, I would like to congratulate you on a very informative page...........
It seems the Blob near Barbados is starting to show some signs of out flow, and as Dr, M mentioned some rotation...I think it it gains strength quick enough, a 20 kt shear shouldn't prohibt development.
Right Erik, but that could be a mudslide concern in that area....
Gulf, poodles can be be pretty snippy. I would say that we barely have a Lab and hopefully a Lab that doesn't feel the urge to retrieve and bring this one home.

sit ubu, sit
FLweather, I don't know either. That is why I read all posts (very informative speculation at times), but follow the experts. Am slowly starting to bring head out of the sand now. I did worry at every sighting last year, and wore myself out. I can't do that again, but am thankful for all who do.
i see a depression forming today. it looks pretty impressive.
Well, the Canadian has the low level vort hitting near NOLA, but if you look at surface pressures, its predicting a TD or weak TS
Oh yeah gulf, I have a std. poodle, scardy cat she is of storms, but never try to come in on her home! A toy poodle I had would have fought a Dobie as well.
I truly don't think Bob was being sarcastic to you. Most experts will tell you the same. No two storms are ever the same.
if you still want to give your input on the National Weather Services Duties Act of 2005 you can visit my blog.
The Weather Channel didnt even MENTION the Barbados Blob.
SJ, uyou and FCC are corret and I admit to this mistake on 96L. That is the same system. I was working over the weekend and did not follow the system 96L all of last weekend.
GulfScotsman - According to a presentation given by Dr. Christopher Davis (NCAR) et al at the 60th Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, "Tropical Transition: The Genesis of Tropical Cyclones from Extratropical Disturbances" (Download the Powerpoint presentation from the link above, under Session 3), the number of storms that evolved from non-tropical sources by undergoing tropical transition is as follows for the years 2000-2005 (TT = "Tropical Transition):

Year TTs Other
2000 4 9
2001 8 7
2002 9 3
2003 6 9
2004 5 10
2005 8 19
total 40 57

The authors define non-tropical systems including subtropical or extra-tropical precursors (Cold-core upper tropospheric lows, fronts, and mesoscale convective vortices). Their definition is broader than just tropical transition of cold-core ULLs, but all TTs come from some type of cold-core system according to the authors definition. From 2005, they include in their list of TT cases Franklin, Harvey, Maria, Nate, Vince, and possibly even Katrina and Rita. They attribute the genesis of Emily, Irene, Lee and Beta to formation along the ITCZ, and Cindy, Jose and Stan to "wave accumulation".

I thought this was interesting because according to the authors, transition from a cold-core to a warm-core systems is not uncommon at all, but comprises a large fraction of all tropical geneses.
No sweat GR, it is really the only thing I have been watching as it was the only game in town that was sorta tropical, or could be.

SJ
51. IKE
TWC is so far behind on everything. I've gotten where I don't even watch them except for local on the 8's...and Jen Carfagno
NHC tropical model guidance for 96L aka Barbados Blob

SHIPS keeps it status quo for about 4 days, but seems to suggest things would finally get favorable for slow intensification at 120 hours.
54. IKE
Definitely a swirl in those clouds with 96L...if it's going to develop..normally it does it before it reaches the islands/Barbados...could be a TD in the making.
Jen Carfagno is babe-licious, and her husband (I'm 76% sure she is married because I'm 82% sure she is pregnant right now) is one very lucky man.
57. IKE
She does look pregnant....lucky guy....
John Hope rule: If it isn't a tropical depression by the time it reaches the islands, it won't become a tropical depression until it gets to the Western half of the Caribbean.

I believe that is because the combination of strong low level winds from the East due to the lower pressure inland over Colombia, and upper winds usually from the West, create very unfavorable shear in the Eastern Caribbean.
59. IKE
I miss John Hope and his reporting.
I also miss John Hope - he was the only reason I watched TWC for the tropics. I wish he would've still been around to see the 2005 season.
I'm not a fan of TWC either, but you are on the edge of being sexist here. Go carefully. The men at other more important weather sites have pregnant wives as well, sorry it doesn't show on them!
EdMahmoud - Excellent observation, thanks for reminding me of who I had heard that "rule" from. I miss the wisdom of John Hope as well. There are exceptions (Like Dennis last year) but that rule of thumb seems to hold most of the time.

That is a very good explanation of why the shear in the Eastern Caribbean is usually unfavorable. I also wonder if the mountainous terrain of South America plays some role in creating the shear, as I often see SW shear in the Eastern Caribbean coming off of the continent...
000
ABNT20 KNHC 121501
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED JUL 12 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE...AND IT COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. SURFACE PRESSURE ARE NOT FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINAL FAVORABLE. DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING
WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH
Bud's had it - toss it into the recycle bin. Carlotta will be a hurricane shortly though. It's going through the same conditions that popped Bud - no reason to assume Carlotta won't do the same. As for the Atlantic side of the equation, if and it's a big if, the Barbados blob can hold on for a couple few days - doubtful to say the least - there's a small chance it could develop over the weekend. It's too early to think seriously about the Bahamas right now, but that little blob of thunderstorms is still there which makes me think there might just be more there than meets the eye - no pun intended. As for the ULL in the gulf, fugeddaboutit.
Forgive my ignorance, but what is a ULL? A low of some sort?

I'm new to this, although I have lived in the Houston/Galveston area all my life. My hurricane experience is only Alicia, Allison, and the Rita evacuation.
Thanks!
I can not believe it!!! The high paid wx specialist over at the NHC just out-and-out ignored the Florida Straits system. They did not even give it a passing thought! They made a reference in the 8:00am discussion that some of the cloud tops warmed over the last four hours. I would like to see the satellite pics that they were looking at!!! This system continues to hold concentrated deep convection, and the area of convection is expanding... I guess that the boys at the NHC just hope that if they just ignore it, it will just go away!!!
ULL - upper level low. It's that litlle eddy you see spinning around in the middle of the gulf. They're neat to look at, but they generally don't develop into anything significant.
I guess we will stay tuned to that Gulf ULL then.....winds are dead here by the Bayou St John, clouds are hanging like leaves. Its sickeningly hot, too.
Bud the little shrimp has been boiled and peeled.
Bayou St. John......reminds me of that Little Feat song. "You ain't seen nothing, til you seen my cajun girl"

Thanks for the welcome .
that's why I said generally. You're just looking at the ones that did - and most of those had strong convection associated with them before they started interacting with tropical waves i.e. Nate and Maria last year.
okay, gotta get some work done. I'll check back in later.
litlle eddy? huh ? there a big eddy in the gulf and its geting biger evere day


Link
Gotta take my St. Bernard to the vet....see you all later.
Some will have to forgive me for "bloblet watching", but I am also still interested in the Bahamas system. On the WV loop it looks like it has an anti-cyclonic circulation at the upper-levels, and the long-range radar loop shows cyclonic turning somewhere most-likely at the mid-level above the surface. Still, pressures are high in the area, and the increasing outflow from the activity in the East Pacific being pulled up on the east side of the Gulf ULL look poised to increase shear over the Gulf directly in the bloblet's path.

Whatever happens with the Bahama bloblet, behind that system is some really dry air. Local forecasters are calling for an extended period of dry conditions over the FL peninsula behind the Bahamas system. Current NAAPS measurements of aerosol concentrations show a large area of the Tropical North Atlantic covered with what appears to be African dust, extending all the way to Central America. The latitudunal and longitudinal atmospheric cross sections show a lobe of African dust poised to pass close to the Florida peninsula following the exit of the Bahamas system.
if John Hope was around in 2005, that would have been great! always told the wife, that "when they wake up the ole man, we have something serious!"...... of course i meant that affectionately, as i had alot of respect for Mr. Hope..... will never forget sometimes how dide he would open his eyes sometimes when gettng hurricane data..... RIP John Hope...

getreal..... i am the one in this blog probably most likely to talk up a blob.....

but as you can see on the communist radar channel there just doesnt seem much to our blob atm......

course, if anything fires up, rotates etc..... i'll prob let you know! LOL
oh, and whats the deal with the date on the cuban radar??? seems live to me! :)
can someone explain why this map has the Tropical Wave in favourable shear
Link
But the NHC says "...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINAL FAVORABLE" ?
Thanks.
Gulf Scotsman-

smut? where?
The ULL in the central GOM, currently centered near 24.5N and 89.0W is tracking rapidly off towards the WSW today. This system really is no threat for tropical development, and will be located in the extreme SW GOM by tomorrow morning. The area to watch for developmnet in the GOM, over the next 48 hours, is the tropical wave coming into the Florida Straits today. Once in the GOM this area of disturbed weather will track off towards the WNW or NW towards the N. central Gulf coast. This system will cross over the LOOP, and will have no shear to battle while doing so. That's why it deserves more attention that NWS is giving to it.
Tazmanian - that eddy is HUGE! If I rebuilt a home along the gulf coast I'd be more than slightly concerned about that.
thats not African dust, its just extremely dry air!!
Yeah you rite, Scot.
JugheadFL - Check the link. NAAPS measures aerosol concentration in the atmosphere, not dry air. Most likely, the co-occurrence of dry air and dust is not a coincidence.
hey guygee..... i too noticed that immense area of dry air behind the blob.... seems to be catching up! LOL

this small blob needs a more favorable environment to have any potential development beyond a few showers.....right now if there is and mid-level circ, it seems very near the coast of cuba to me, which even further prohibits development....
Agreed thelmores, but I still find nearby weather features interesting, even if they are interesting in the ways they will not develop.
Mah I dont like to look at those shear forecast map, they are alittle misleading. For current shear look at this...Link And for forecasted shear look at these models...Link
for you jen carfagno fans check this out --http://tv.groups.yahoo.com/group/theadorablejencarfagno/
The deep convection with 96L has been spreading out and dying off for the past few hours, but it seems to be holding enough that it may make it to the diurnal cooling period with a chance to become a TD. I think it needs to pick up as much strength as possible now if it is going to have to battle any shear in the near future. As far as tropical development potential I think this is the most interesting area for now.

Anywho, for those who may not have seen, StormJunkie.com has all of the models, imagery, marine data, preparedness info and much more that you need to stay ahead of the storm. There is also some nice storm video from WU bloggers.

SJ

"create a large wave moveing at an axis beneath the vortex."

ummmm........ how exactly would you do that? hit the side of the bucket? LOL

Weather friends.com

Check it out...where can post in forums and reply to them.
What is an Eddy, and what effects does it have on tropical formation?

Put
GulfScotsman: what happens?

I was sucked into the vortex and almost drowned. Thanks, GulfScotsman. That was nasty trick to play on a fellow blogger.....

putintang3 the eddy in the gulf is if a hurricane would have pass overe it then the TS would go from a cat 1 up to a cat 5 vary fast and a eddy is a beeep warm waters of 80 to 90 sea temps nand they are off the maps this year

Despite the buildup of convection between Cuba and the Bahamas, I still don't think we are going to get much action in the Atlantic today. We had a little squall in Nassau around 8:30 a.m., but the heavier clouds are staying south. I don't see much westward movement either. And the spin peoople are talking about seems non-existent in recent satellite.
oh Taz ty, that really sucks.
Put
no problem Gulf, although I think you should just empty the bucket, fille it with ice and cervezas and go catch some Tarpon.
Posted By: putintang3 at 9:06 AM PDT on July 12, 2006.
What is an Eddy, and what effects does it have on tropical formation?

you ask whats a eddy right?

and her i try to tell you the best way i can


Posted By: Tazmanian at 9:09 AM PDT on July 12, 2006.
putintang3 the eddy in the gulf is if a hurricane would have pass overe it then the TS would go from a cat 1 up to a cat 5 vary fast and a eddy is a beeep warm waters of 80 to 90 sea temps nand they are off the maps this year


and what did i get back by trying to ask your ?

Posted By: putintang3 at 9:14 AM PDT on July 12, 2006.
oh Taz ty, that really sucks.
Put


how rude

113. code1
Thank you Taz! :-)
TPC mentions a possible invest Friday afternoon on 96L.
putintang3 you sucks well same to you too

that was un call for

would evere one take a look at this post her

and look how vary rud he was too me


Posted By: Tazmanian at 9:17 AM PDT on July 12, 2006.
Posted By: putintang3 at 9:06 AM PDT on July 12, 2006.
What is an Eddy, and what effects does it have on tropical formation?

you ask whats a eddy right?

and her i try to tell you the best way i can


Posted By: Tazmanian at 9:09 AM PDT on July 12, 2006.
putintang3 the eddy in the gulf is if a hurricane would have pass overe it then the TS would go from a cat 1 up to a cat 5 vary fast and a eddy is a beeep warm waters of 80 to 90 sea temps nand they are off the maps this year


and what did i get back by trying to ask your ?

Posted By: putintang3 at 9:14 AM PDT on July 12, 2006.
oh Taz ty, that really sucks.
Put


how rude



and i was only trying to help him out with the ?
weatherguy03 - I liked your link to the shear forecasts, but what I don't understand how the forecast fits with all of the cirrus clouds pouring generally north off the Yucatan. Isn't that an indication of higher shear than what is shown? Just wondering...
i am mad i vary mad
Taz - I think putintang3 was trying to say that a
"TS would go from a cat 1 up to a cat 5 vary fast" would be really bad...
i really dont see the strong wind shear. looks like the shear is dropping between fl and the carrib storm.

Link


thats the 12 UTC map so the new one should be out soon...
Taz, I didn't mean you sucked I meant the eddy being off the charts sucked. sorry you miss understood me.

Put
whats the link to the page where you can see like projected destruction paths, rainfall amounts..etc. from 96L
catch one for me, Gulf. You know, what's needed here is a way of verifying who's replying to which post - so that Taz doesn't go ballistic. That and some action so people can talk about something other than blobs.
ah i see that ok
Don't be mad at me Taz please forgive me I didn't mean to upset you. And I do thank you for the explaination. I am not a person with the best vocabulary. Just a cajun girl.

put
flweather- Link

Link

Link
hey high good thinking
: putintang3 thats ok now where cool whats get back with are weather we are all talking about today ok
whirlwind, thanks
Once again, dry air persists over Jacksonville. So weird how we have the "Dry Stream" over us and I can watch all of the potential storms just die as they hit the anti-cyclone dry stream over Jax. Is that dry air always there? I just started noticing it this season and would love to see some WV loop archives from last year. Any input is welcome.

Thanks all,

B
96L seems to be getting bigger..whats its chances on becoming a depression today?? where will it head?
highndry

There is. Just quote the person you are responding to. Rinse and repeat.



is it me, or is there a little spin showing up on the miami long range radar.......

just asking! LOL
every day that goes by with no action is another day the kettle is left on the stove boiling if, u catch my drift
----dreading august here in puerto rico----
If you check the GHCC visible loop and zoom in on the north-central coast of Cuba south of the FL straits, it looks like there might be some onshore flow in the low-level convergence bands, roughly between 79W and 80W on the north coast.
I'm just sitting here waiting for the tropical moisture, that is moving NW from the Bahamas, to smack up against the seabreeze that is comes of the coast here in Tampa and causes terrible thunderstorms....it's been happening for the past 3 days!!!!



guygee, i agree..... this storm is trying to become better organized.....

certainly deserves to be pondered! ;)
it is very windy here and pouring in weston florida.
Same here in Cape Coral jughead, 7 inches this past weekend
good afternoon
LOL Gulf.....

now are you going to answer the question whether a large water spout can actually become a hurricane? :D
can in fact induce hybrid tropical cycle formation.

OH NOES!

*sobs*
We need another bucket experiment to test this hypothesis ;)
looks like its gonna be a stormy time in the keys/ s. florida....

we have gotten about a 1/3 of an inch of rain here in myrtle beach, on unusual thin bands of rain paralleling the coast..... definately somewhat abnormal for this time of year..... this morning when i cheched, had virtually no mention of rain..... but you can't trust those weather guys! LOL
"We need another bucket experiment to test this hypothesis ;)"

more like a bucket of beer! :D
I think it should be AGITATE -- the Al Gore Institute for Tremendously Amplifying Terrestial Events
Zap
more like a bucket of beer! :D

Sounds good! The frothy CO2 will account for the effects of global warming, and the beer will help us fuggitaboutit.
Gulfscotsman: That way the politicans can make up any theory they like

Your tinfoil hat is on crooked.
159. snack
In regards to the swirl between Florida and Cuba, most disorganised waves have many of these. Watch any tropical wave on radar (that has weak shear) and unless its a well established tropical cyclone, it can have several areas of circulation. Undoubtedly the apparent swirl over the Everglades and the possible one over Sebring FL are no weaker than the one over water. They may be leftover MCCs from yesterday's thunderstorm clusters. Get excited when you see large bands of showers hundreds of miles long get organized in a pinwheel first. However its fun to anticipate what kernel of rotation will become the next tropical storm.
162. code1
Sad but true GSM. Politics other than funding, have no place in the science field. True scientist will never allow $$ to hype their experiments though. Sadly, they are the ones we don't hear from because of lack of political funding. And the circle/circus goes round and round.
where or what time dos the next update come out for Carlotta and bud?
looks like the "blob" better be careful.... dry air coming from the east, and high shear goin west.... doesn't look promising for "the blob"

plus the pressures in the straights is still pretty high.....
thelmores - That's weird - Here in Columbia last night, WIS-TV said that there was a good chance of costal showers in your area today. Maybe you need to check out your WX from the midlands LOL :)
Good morning guys ive been looking at global modes this morning and for the first time there are indications that conditions are going to become more favorable near the end of the month. Long range computer models also suggest that surface pressures will gradually lower and that the famed Bermuda High will set up shop across the western Atlantic. This coupled with very active tropical waves should mean that we will see an increase in activity in about 10 days to two weeks.I just wanted to give everyone the heads up. adrian
Posted By: guygee at 12:29 PM EDT on July 12, 2006.
weatherguy03 - I liked your link to the shear forecasts, but what I don't understand how the forecast fits with all of the cirrus clouds pouring generally north off the Yucatan. Isn't that an indication of higher shear than what is shown? Just wondering...

No, it actually is showing alittle area of high pressure there. That has allowed the shear to come down a bit over there. When you see that affect with the cirrus clouds that indicated high pressure alot. If they were moving quickly in one direction or another, like streaking away, that would be faster wind shear. Kind of hard to explain typing!..LOL Hope you understand that..LOL
"96L is days from developing and Blobs are just thunderstorms. The collision of GALAXIES in the Gulf of Mexico could in fact induce something. If not just an excuse to have a beer from a bucket!"

as if i needed
ANOTHER excuse! LOL
...the pressures in the straights are still pretty high.
thelmores - That seems to be the key observation for this system, the pressures are high and I haven't observed any big drops in pressure anywhere. For example, Station MLRF1 - Molasses Reef, FL (25.01 N 80.38 W).
Barbados is reporting 28 mph sustained winds.
guys I see a tropical wave and surface trough per 2:05 PM Discussion but dont see any mention of a LLC...
got this from yahoo weather: Bridgetown, Barbados - Barometer: 29.97 in and falling
yea JugheadFL iam agreeing with jef masters on 96L having a chance today of atleast making to TD status.
weatherguy03 - Thanks for pointing that out. That explanation makes sense to me. I can see the cirrus clouds are wrapping around anti-cyclonically east of the Gulf ULL, not really streaky like if the shear was high. So it is an indication of upper-level moisture but not high shear.
There are reports in barbados right now of near 30mph Pressures are still fairly high but have fallen from about 1016 to 1015 the convection is pulsing right now but should return as the system stays just far enough south to avoid the 20 to 40 kt wind shear and sit under about 15 or so... and condition may briefly improve in the short term as it moves a little further west where the wind shear turns a little more SW-erly. the circulation is small but is also holding to gether and becoming a little more symetrical. So we will have to watch it as it passes through the islands tonight.
the famed Bermuda High will set up shop across the western Atlantic

would this set up tend to steer storms coming up the east coast more to the west... i.e. increasing likelihood of landfall vs. curving back out to sea?
Gulf you seem to be in high spirits today! So I like watching weather, sue me ;)
I really do enjoy a scientific experiment - what do we have to do to the bucket to make it rain in Brundidge, Alabama - do we need a bigger bucket?
Look! Wind Speed: 37.83 from the East

this is for Barbados
No no nvm that comment....this website doesn't make any sense
sue me too..... but you can't get blood from a turnip! LOL
190. cjnew
LOL I have figured out that If I run in circle fast enough in the shallow end of my pool I can make a pretty impressive whirlpool.
It reaches the bottom and makes like tornado that sucks up all the crap in my pool.
Makes it easy to clean as well!

LOL sorry
floodzonenc remmeber its all about timing with tropical systems.Its impossible to know what the setup will be when a tropical system approaches the US.we have an idea on what they might be but nothing is for sure.Right now in my opinion the East coast is more at risk in 2006 then the gulf.

PS!remember tropical systems look for the weakness and were the weakness is at the time the topical system will take the path of least risistance.
wind is currently at 28 mph sustained
in barbados
I'll just have mine straight, please.
Taz that really does look like an eye??/ mayb Carlotta will rapidly intesify like bud
need a commet on my last post on my link thanks
lmao gulf
: HurricaneRoman bud dos now look like march any more look how small it got for bud and yes i think it may be a hurricane now when the next update
CJ you've been watching too much Spongebob with that whirlpool idea (LOL!)

Maybe Mermaid Man and Barnacle Boy will keep these trop cyclones at bay a while longer...

Bucket drink idea... use short section of garden hose as a straw. I did learn something useful at ECU!
I agree or maybe they will bump Carlotta to a 70 mph TS as they do sometimes
HurricaneRoman yes when the next updat on it
Tazmanian it looks like eye like feature.meaning the begins of a pin hole eye.

Here's an IR image of CARLOTTA.

Carlotta has a classic mid-strong tropical storm, comma shapped signature. Intensity is atleast 50mph, probably 60-70mph.
Here's a visable loop of Bud and Carlotta side by side.
Bud's quite a bit smaller, but his eye is coming back now. Most definetly intesifying.
Lastest on 96L...fro the NHC 2:05 DISCUSSION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST
NEAR 15 KT. EARLY THIS MORNING CONVECTION HAS BLOSSOMED AROUND A
1014 MB LOW LOCATED ALONG OR JUST BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 56W-58W.
THIS WAVE REMAINS IN A MARGINAL ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE TROPICAL WAVE AND AREA OF LOW PRES WILL
SPREAD MOISTURE TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT.

wow 2 pin hole eye where starting to see them more now coool this wait in tell we see are 1st hurricane of the year you think they have pin hole eyes
As far as the tropical wave that affected south florida right now i see rotation off of the Miami radar however that rotation is also at +18,000 feet. I don't see any evidence of an LLC.
heu 23 can you post that photo in my blog so that way i can put it on my new web site thanks
I'm not particularly concerned about the wave near Barbadoes. Its not uncommom to have brief spin up that amount to nothing from waves. REMEMBER, PERSISTANCE. If something hasn't last about 12 hours, wait.
Tx
Thanks hurr23 for the explanation. We've had that high set up northeast of NC and the clockwise nature steered a couple of storms our way... can't remember which year, could've been 99 w/ Dennis and Floyd.
hurricane23 - The seabreeze interactions on the north coast of Cuba on the visible loop seem to show some onshore flow, and supression of thunderstorms. That just has me a bit curious.
pin hole eye alert for hurricane CARLOTTA new a good photo that you post on her for my new web site thansk
221. Inyo
pin-hole eyes are trendy and hip now!

i dont know if i think they are more common than they used to be, thought.

Are Bud and Carlotta expected to influence each other? I know they are forecast to follow slightly different paths... i think Carlotta will go a bit further north.
Observed at: Grantley Adams, Barbados
Elevation: 164 ft / 50 m

85 F / 29 C
Light Rain
Humidity: 69%
Dew Point: 76 F / 25 C
Wind: 29 mph / 46 km/h from the East
Wind Gust: -
Pressure: 29.97 in / 1015 hPa
Visibility: 6.0 miles / 10.0 kilometers
UV: 6 out of 16
Clouds: Scattered Clouds 1378 ft / 420 m
Mostly Cloudy 3346 ft / 1020 m
(Above Ground Level)

Definitely agreed with you there jp.
thanks for the link myles...Whoa! I had no clue how small Bud is... and Carlotta definitely has an eye.... Bud has to be one of the smallest storms I have seen ...... Its like the size of Bonnie
Quick FYI,
Fellow Blogger LRandyB, is weather specialist with the AF Reserve Hurricane Hunters at Keesler AFB, MS. Check out His Just Updated Blog for The Recon Plan of The Day from an insider.
Here is a real time altimetry of the Gulf of Mexico.July 11,2006

Inyo, pin hole eyes are not more common than they use to be. as far as the 2 storms interacting, not much chance since they are over 600 apart.

Bud is nearings it end and will withing a day begin the inevitable decline(see the stable clouds ahead of it) and Carlotta is one the upswing and the climo rate and seems to be a strong storm around 60-70 now. It might make hurricane by later. The most interaction would be a slight southward component of Bud Bundy, but since it will be heading more south(as it weakens) we'd hardly notice.

Tx
Carlotta's lookin' good - I wouldn't be surprised if it was upgraded either with the next package or later this evening: a bit ahead of schedule. 96L is on the downswing though, surrounded by dry air and brutal shear: however, given it's history I wouldn't count it out just yet - it really has been the comeback kid so far. As for our little swirl in the GOM, it's going to be interesting to watch it interact with whatever it is streaming off the Yucatan. I've noticed a few clouds popping up around the center of the thing - maybe the core is heating up a bit. Anyhoo, just got back from lunch - Taco Bell and a Scientific American article about metamaterials. Metamaterials and Metafoodstuffs - good combination.
SST'S in the gulf of meixco 2005 july 11



SST'S in the gulf of meixco 2006 july 11
img src="



thanks cracker girl
sorry guys wrong image.
Are they not the same 23?
Here's 2006 july.

hurricane23 -

Question: why does the graph you labelled 2006, July 11 have the title of Day 192, Year 2005?
"an upper level low in the central Gulf is moving pretty quickly to west. It's helping to induce a pretty deep trough over the western Gulf and inducing a broad ridge over the eastern Gulf. The ridge is providing a significant amount of upper level difluence over the west Caribbean and the southeastern Gulf. We'll have to watch for possible development under the ridge as the upper low tracks west away from the Gulf. A persistant low level trough over the western Bahamas and south Florida has been pretty stationary but is slipping slowly west as the upper low moves away. This trough could end up being a system to watch if it gets into the Gulf under the ridge." - LRandyB
nevermind.
Just posted the 2006 july SST'S.
oops, hurricane23 you posted the same image twice(sounds like something I'd do)
hmm do u ppl think the barbados low will form any more??
New video tropical update on the Hurricane Project site:

Link

I suggest you go here; it is very informative.
tx, in regards to your comments on 96L I tend to agree, but would like to point out that those shorter spin ups do have the ability to keep the wave alive longer then it would have normally survived. Like today, I think 96L would have been completely gone if not for the burst of convection. Now it may be able to hang around for another day or two as a weak wave, and it also may have enough spin and warmer water to better utilize the diurnal cooling period.

StormJunkie.com-models, imagery, marine data, preparedness info and much more.
Nice tip FLCrackerGirl, Thanks! I'll be watching Randy's blog from now on.
By the way, this confirms our worst fears (read Dr. Masters entry on the Loop Current to see why it is bad):



More here

As Dr. Masters said:
When a Loop Current Eddy breaks off in the Gulf of Mexico at the height of hurricane season, it can lead to a dangerous situation where a vast reservoir of energy is available to any hurricane that might cross over. This occurred in 2005, when a Loop Current Eddy separated in July, just before Hurricane Katrina passed over and "bombed" into a Category 5 hurricane. The eddy remained in the Gulf and slowly drifted westward during September. Hurricane Rita passed over the same Loop Current Eddy three weeks after Katrina, and also explosively deepened to a Category 5 storm.
Fear the Cock freak1 :)




Gamecock for those who are unclear.
yea MichaelSTL iam seeing the same thing it has me concerned.
SJ - a lot of people out of SC or the SEC wouldn't understand that statement or take offense at it LOL :)
MichaelSTL - Nice graphic. Does it look like we will have 2 eddies later this season? It looks like that main eddy is getting ready to cut-off, and there is already one on the Western Gulf, plus the loop current itself.
And just like that, the Barbados Blob is sheared away!!!!!
Quakeman55 - Thanks for the link. Even a noobie like me could clearly understand.
Be sure to watch Mike Naso's latest tropical update video. It is a little lengthy but very informative. Despite the shear present ahead of 96L, we may not quite be done with it yet (in fact it may just be the beginning).
One of the biggest factors that determines if we will see a repeat of Katrina or Rita (not necessarially as strong, but a storm that blows up in the same way) is whether a storm will get into the Gulf with favorable conditions. However, as with Alberto, even a storm in a highly unfavorable environment can suddenly intensify (although not in the way that Katrina or Rita did).
You're welcome...I believe it was SJ that pointed me to there. Haha I posted it here again since we're on a new page.
Those sst show the difference beween an area that got hit by storms and this year where there's only been alberto.
hurricane23 - Thank you for the link. I went a couple of levels up and there is a lot of good information there. I guess a big question is whether that main very warm eddy cuts off within 2-3 of months, or whether it takes a little longer.
I hope guygee we dont have any tropical systems in the gulf this year because even thow SST'S are down a bit from last years there still above normal and if the conditions are right come august and september we might have a very dangerous situation in our hands.
On the RGB floater you can totally see the swirl outrun the convection on 96L as shear takes a toll.

Nowcast's current loop
Hey guys:
See where Gore and Wal-Mart are going to do a publicity stint about global warming? As the single largest electricity consumer in the nation, Wal-Mart will make proposals about what the company can do to improve the situation with regard to global warming. Think they might consider removing the thousands of square miles of black asphalt and shoddily constructed, eyesore buildings they have left standing empty all over the country from the pre-Super Wal-Mart days? No. But they may possibly raise their thermostat levels from 72 to 73.5 degrees, and get national media coverage for the announcement!
Hello everyone
Bud is an interesting little hurricane.

Look at the visable pic - Sure looks like he has a nice eye going, huh?


But wait just a second - Look at the IR and tell me if you see a good eye.


It's obvious Bud's eye and eyewall are quite ragged, and it's doubtful it will get much better. Bud has time in the next 6-12 hours
to continue to intensify by fully wrapping convection around the eye, but it's unlikely given the dry air to it's west.
right now the 25kt winds at Barbados are blowing away from the mid-level center of the disturbance. Looks like the thunderstorms collapsed and pushed an outflow boundary through Barbados. Certainly no LLC associated with the wave.
agreed JP, the spin on 96L still looks healthy, have to see if it slips under the shear. On the loop current the weaker one near TX, it formed like middle or May beginning of June? Or was it later?
BBL
There is no LLC in my opinion with 96L.its in the mid levels.
The 120 hour puts it at 50 m.p.h. I thought that was interesting
000
ABNT20 KNHC 121501
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED JUL 12 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE...AND IT COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. SURFACE PRESSURE ARE NOT FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINAL FAVORABLE. DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING
WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH
There is a good LLC on the visible satellite imagery for 96L...it can indeed slip under the shear and develop more thunderstorms later...though none going on at the moment.
Guys with 96L There's is nothing but surface divergence occurring now that the thunderstorm activity has collpased and spit out the outflow boundaries. It is just the oppositie of what you would want to see in an organizing low level circulation.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 121501
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED JUL 12 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE...AND IT COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO. SURFACE PRESSURE ARE NOT FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY...AND
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINAL FAVORABLE. DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING
WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH

As for the SHIPS forecast for a 50 mph TS in 5 days, it almost always shows systems that never develop turn into tropical storms or hurricanes.
Thanks Skye, it is a sudden refreshing downpour of good information and new links on this blog. Looks like 96L is just a low-level circulation for now, with a hard road of shear ahead of it.
Guys with 96L There's is nothing but surface divergence occurring now that the thunderstorm activity has collpased and spit out the outflow boundaries. It is just the oppositie of what you would want to see in an organizing low level circulation.
Hello everyone...First time blogger, hanging out at Keesler... Stopped by the 53rd today...The Hurricane Hunters are heading out to have a look see.
It reminds me of a low-level skeleton of a depression that has lost its thunderstorms over cool water.
It seems that there is some convergence, according to CIMSS. Link

Also, there is upper-level divergence over it (indicating outflow).
000
NOUS42 KNHC 121500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT WED 12 JUL 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 13/1100Z TO 14/1100Z JUL 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-042

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL INVEST NEAR 15N AND 69W
FOR 14/1800Z.


II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
WVW


If the current trend continous its almost certain that flight will be cancelled.
Michael, You are correct having those eddies is bad. Historically it makes you wonder whether or not such eddies existed in the past for such storms as the 1900 or numerous early century storms. The sad fact is we don't know, but it would account for quite a bit(this is why "The big increase in 5's is so bogus). One bit of GOOD news for FL is that storms that hit the Panhandle usually have recurved and thus are past their prime(recurvature is usually right after the peak.)

Hopefully we'll avoid the perfect conditions, so even though we have warm water nothing will happen.
TX
96L has survived this long and fought this hard, and I am almost certain it isn't giving up now. =]
I think there may be a circulation well Southeast of Miami, although considering the distance and how far the radar beam must be above the distance (if I was motivated, I could figure it out, but I'll let someone else do the trig) no proof its a surface low.
EdMahmoud there is a circulation but the problem is its 18,000 feet.
About there being 'more' Cat 5's.


It may at least partly be due to the fact that during the last active period 1930s to 1950s there wasn't as many recon missions into the storms. From what I read, when the Navy flew most missions in late 50s and 1960s, (especially after losing a plane in Hurricane Janet) they wouldn't even penetrate strong storms, but would fly the perimeter and attempt to get center fixes with radar.


Recall that while Katrina and Rita were Cat 5s, nobody would have known pre-recon days.
hurricane 23- well, I figured the radar beam was getting pretty high that far out.

But maybe that 500 mb low becomes a 700 mb low becomes an 850 mb low...
One more thing guys on 96L.A LLC means low level circulation (i.e., a closed surface circulation) not lower-level circulation (circulation aloft but not at the surface. There appears to be a tiny area of rotation above the surface but no evidence of that rotation extending down to the surface. In any case, convection has fallen apart as the disturbance races westward into an increasingly hostile environment ahead of the TUTT. Adrian
"EdMahmoud there is a circulation but the problem is its 18,000 feet." - hurricane23

hey 23.... not disputing your facts at all, but where did you get the information that shows this.... it could possible "save face" for me in the future! LOL
Databuoy 30 km East of Galveston, in 15 meters of water, with a temperature sensor depth of 0.6 m, is approaching its diurnal high of 30

Last year, we went to the beach at GLS the weekend before Katrina entered the Gulf, and that buoy was up to 33. Golly, that felt nice.
Maybe a good QuikSCAT can clear things up concerning 96L...
Per radar FAQ page, base reflectivity is at 0.5 elevation, height would be opposite, distance would be adjacent, and the tang...

well, that would only be an approximation due to the curvature of the Earth. We could calculate a distance for the height above the 0 elevation, then calculate the curvature of the Earth at that distance and...

Too much work.

I'll just take Hurricane23's word for it.
EdMahmoud i just sent you a message check your mail. adrian
What you guys are seeing south of florida is aSurface Trough. An elongated area with relatively low MSLP and no closed circulation meaning a local area of lower pressure marked by a windshift and sfc convergence... adrian
Sorry, newbie question here.

What do the numbers you guys are using for blobs mean? I thought it was Lat/Long for a while but then I realized that 96 degrees longitude is almost on Mexico coast and you're talking about straits of Florida.

It looks like this will drop a lot of moisture on Florida as a non-tropical storm.

It looks to me like it enters the eastern gulf right as shear decreases (based on MichaelSTL's link).

What do you guys see this thing doing one or two days out. I would like to see the computer models too if someone has a link.
Thanks JP. Are the numbers issued consecutively? So the next thing they investigate will be 97? What does L mean?

Thanks for the tip. Trying to improve my tropical education in case I move to Houston.
Yeah Scotsman...I'm glad nothing like that is out there too...especially in the extremely warm Gulf waters in the beginnings of an active hurricane season. Sure is good there isn't...that's a load off our backs.
I wonder if I used my home or office e-mail setting up this account.

No email yet.
L's are the ones in the Atlantic basin (not sure why they are L's and not something else like A's), and the E's are for the East Pacific and W's for the West Pacific.
I think Gulf is obsessed with Upper Level Lows!..LOL
Sounds like great news Scotsman. Let's go out and barbecue!
iahishome,

96L is issued by the Navy. The L stands for the Atlantic basin, other ocean basins get other letters. The numbers are consecutive between 90-99, then it starts over at 90 again.

Here are the FSU Models Page It also has links to CIMSS(the page with thre wind shear, plus alot more), QuikScat, and phase analysis. Bookmark it!
EdMahmoud did you get my message?
This stuff moving across Florida, from the east, is reaching the bay and gulf waters and exploding. During the most recent "attack" I had gusts to 40mph, temperature dropped from 89 to 75 in less than 30 minutes.
"What you guys are seeing south of florida is aSurface Trough. An elongated area with relatively low MSLP and no closed circulation meaning a local area of lower pressure marked by a windshift and sfc convergence... adrian"

adrian.... i am not disputing that.... i simply would like to know how you came up with the "18,000 ft" figure.......

inquiring minds want to know! ;)
As GulfScotsman indicated, though, it could mean danger.
thelmores all u have to do is ready the lastest discussion from the NHC.
No message yet, did it go to my work (5 letter company name) or home (alumni account from UT) account?
Speaking of Orlando, I frequently consumed alcohol to excess in 2003 and 2004 while living in Orlando a couple of miles North of the small executive airport in zip code 32813.
bud is a bet stornger 90kts winds 970mb

and .CARLOTTA 50kts 997mb


90kts winds in mph?

50kts winds in mph?
"thelmores all u have to do is ready the lastest discussion from the NHC."

thanks! :)
Wrong century. I drank in Orlando in 1983 and 1984.


In 2003-2004 I never came w/i 1000 km of Orlando.


Well Orlando at least you had power that night because in boca raton that night it got down to about that temperature with no power, never thought I would be that cold on a South Florida night, it was bizarre.
90kts winds in mph?

50kts winds in mph?


commets on this thanks
337. cjnew
I think Gulf is trying to make a point!

I sence Sarcasm
thanks
Dr M Has New Blog Up Now.
340. cjnew
new blog
adrian, i looked in the nhc discussion, but failed to find any mention of "18,000 ft".....

would it be possible for you to provide a link or at least a quote, which contains this information......

just trying to learn here.......

thanks! :)
IR image of Tropical Storm Carlotta