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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Bangladesh reeling from Cyclone Sidr; Landmark climate change report issued today

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 6:01 PM GMT on November 17, 2007

Tropical Cyclone Sidr has left immense devastation and suffering in its wake, after the Category 4 storm smashed ashore in Bangladesh with sustained winds near 150 mph. At least 2,000 people are dead, 5,000 injured, and over three million homeless. The cyclone's winds and storm surge of at least 20 feet destroyed over 273,000 buildings and killed over 242,000 livestock. A nation-wide power outage continues in Bangladesh, making communications difficult with the hard-hit areas.


Figure 1. Population density map of Bangladesh for regions less than 10 meters in elevation (red areas) and higher than 10 meters (green areas). The path of Tropical Cyclone Sidr took it inland over the Sundarbans Forest, the least populated region of the coast. However, the more heavily populated provinces just to the right of the Forest, Barguna and Patuakhali, received a storm surge of 10-20 feet. A storm surge of 20 feet was reported at Charkhali, at the head of a narrow estuary connected to the ocean. Image credit: CIESEN, Columbia University.

Sidr's death toll
The death toll from Sidr will go much higher, making the storm the deadliest tropical cyclone the world has seen since Hurricane Mitch of 1998. Mitch dumped up to 30 inches of rain on Honduras, triggering flash floods that killed over 9,000 people. I don't think Sidr's death toll will surpass Mitch's, as the government of Bangladesh was quite successful getting the warning out and evacuating those who would go. The days when a cyclone will kill tens of thousand of Bangladeshis, such as occurred when 140,000 died in the 1991 Bangladesh Cyclone, are probably done. Bangladesh holds ten of the top twenty spots on the list of the world's deadliest tropical cyclones of all time.

Landmark IPCC report issued today
The Nobel Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released their final "Synthesis Report" today. This massive effort, repeated just once every seven years, summarizes the current state of scientific knowledge on climate change, the likely impacts, and options for how to respond. All literate citizens of the world should read the 23-page report.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update, Dr.Master's.
Very tragic. Thanks for the update, Doctor Masters.
Thanks for the update, Dr Masters!
The Amazon Basin

IQUITOS SECADA, Peru (SPQT)

Overcast Skies with a temperature of 78F and a relative humidity of 80%

Coastal Desert

ANTOFAGASTA CER, Chile (SCFA)

Clear to partly cloudy skies with a temperature of 64F and a relative humidity near 68%.

Marine Layer

Ship V3WW6 is located in the SE Pacific Ocean near 41.6S-90.40W.

The ship is reporting a temperature of 11.9C with 5 oktas of cloud cover. Dew point was not measured. The ship is reporting low level cumulus and mid-level altocumulus.

Discussion.....

The subtropical ridge is centered on a transitory 1032 mb high near 45S-96W. South to southwest winds dominates the eastern flank of this ridge along the Chilean and Peru Coasts. Cold air advection in associated with the cold Humboldt current is causing cooling and the formation of an extensive marine layer with sheets of stratiform clouds and fog across subtropical southeast Pacific Ocean.

This layer is kept low due to high pressure subsidence (adiabatic compression of sinking air) which is creating a thermal inversion near 600 mb.

Meanwhile, typical dry conditions are found over the coastal deserts of Chile and Peru. The Andes Mountain Range helps block most of the moisture from the moist, warm Amazon Basin and the onshore flow from the Atlantic associated with the South America Monsoon (SAM). Desert conditions are also amplified by the inversion and the cool marine layer as cool air holds less moisture and most of the moisture has already condense offshore.

The Amazon Basin, because of its geography, lies within a warm, convergent and moist environment and is almost always in cloud cover with a maxima in January and minima in July. This is due to the South American Monsoon System.



tumbed that link dr nice update liked the link i would like to conclued that year 06 07 has also showing the beginning of a rapid acceration by great loss of ice in high artic and the increase in water vapour levels making the planet increasly more humid which quite possibly could be the reason behind lake levels dropping and in some cases drying up all together as been seen in the artic regions also why is largest of the grt lakes reporting such a dramtic drop in lake level could this also be link not sure got to keep watch 07 is fast coming to a close 08 is yet to unfold interesting to say the least as this grand experiment of our own making unfolds
Thanks, Dr. Masters.

Whew, we can tell hurricane season is over, at least in the Atlantic. No one is posting! XD

But on a more serious note, I feel bad for those people in Bangladesh. 3,000,000 people homeless is a lot.
2007 atlantic hurr. season ends in 320hrs 46 mins.
That is a most unfortunate image you have there, Keeperofthegate.
From hydrus at 4:55pmGMT on 17Nov07 "Does anyone know what the maximum sustained wind speed was when sidr made landfall?"

Using hurricane23's link to the MIMIC of Sidr's path through landfall, the last&lowest maximum sustained winds I could discern was 122knots (140miles per hour / 225kilometres per hour) after Sidr's core had fully crossed the shoreline.
From my viewings, Sidr had maximum sustained winds of at least 126knots (145mph/233kph) at the beginning of the eyewall's landfall.

According to the only Bangladeshi news article I could find containing an officially reported maximum, Patuakhali was hit by winds of 223kph/~139mph/~121knots
However, Patuakhali is ~100kilometres northeast from where Sidr's eyewall made landfall, and thus unlikely to have been the region receiving the highest maximum sustained winds. Plus communications lines are knocked down in the most affected areas, and there was damage shutting down Bangladesh's Internet and international calls* a couple of days before landfall.
So the official weather groundstations in the hardest hit areas were probably unable to file their reports about Sidr's maximum sustained winds.

* The link also contains an excellent interactive satellite composite map of the region.
Left-click&move your mouse to grab&reposition the map.
whys that pottery all guns in the wrong hands causes to make a monkey out of themselves thats what makes us unique as humans we have the right to choose be a smart human or stupid monkey but the choice is ours unforunatly most chose to act like the monkey
ive removed it pottery no problem
OK Keeper. Thanks. I have used a lot of different firearms over the years, and understand what they do. Unfortunately, the young people tend to think that they are real cool, and have no concept of what the result of the thing can be. The monkey comes out, I suppose.
In any case, I try not to advertise the use of them, too much.
Yawn...
....SYNOPSIS....

GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 40W....

High pressure centered over the Southeastern United States dominates the region and is providing fair weather and 10-15 knot anticyclonic flow over the area. A upper trough is digging across the Eastern Rockies near 105W. Rising motion ahead of the front along with onshore flow is advecting multilayered cloudiness from Eastern Pacific Ocean over Mexico and Coastal Texas into the Eastern United States.

As a strong frontal system pushes across the North-Central Atlantic, high pressure is building across the area centered on a series of high pressure systems over Georgia and the Southwest Atlantic...thereby fair weather exist. Upper confluence also dominates the region behind the front which is advecting dry and stable mid-upper level air over the region, with extensive sheets of low level cold air stratocumulus found north of 30N, west of 50W under this dry air regime.


by W456
Tropical Disturbance Summary (2300z 17Nov)
==========================================
An area of convection (98S) near 6.3S 75.6E or 200 NM east-northeast of Diego Garcia. Animated infrared satellite imagery depicts a consolidating low level circulation center with a large, symmetric area of deep convection wrapping into the eastern quadrant. TRMM Image indicates strenghthening convective banding wrapping into a consolidating LLCC. Surface Observation from Diego Garcia indicates a surface low pressure near 1007 mb with 2 mb 24 hours pressure falls. Quikscat shows cross-equatorial inflow and enhancing westerlies converging over the northern semi-circle and strong southeasterlies converging over the south semi-circle. Animated water vapor imagery shows a developing anticyclone over the disturbance with good outflow.

Upper level analysis indicates a favorable environment. Maximum sustained winds is 25-30 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1002 mb. Due to a rapidly developing LLCC and convective banding, the potential of this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to GOOD.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert is now in effect. This alert may be re-issued , cancelled, or upgraded to a warning by 2300z 18Nov.
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION....

In the upper levels, a ridge covers the region with its axis near 63W. Meanwhile, a stationary frontal boundary enters the region across the Southern Tip of Cuba and stretches across Northwest Caribbean to Belize. The front lies within the left entrance region of the upper ridge where synoptic scale sinking is favored resulting in only scattered low level clouds.

A tropical wave near 80W south of 17N is interacting with the ITCZ to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over Lower Central America and the Southwest Caribbean Sea south of 14N. The wave is being significantly sheared by strong southwesterlies associated with the upper ridge. Another tropical wave is surging westward along the ITCZ near 61W south of 17N bringing overcast skies, scattered showers and thunderstorms to Venezuela and the Windward Islands this evening.

Generally, a moderate easterly tradewind flow dominates the region thanks to the transitory high pressure over the Southeastern United States. The strongest trades are found over the Southwest Caribbean and frontal boundary due to the increase pressure gradient. Seas over this region of the Caribbean are 6-7 ft. Small craft and drug traffickers should exercise caution especially across Jamaican and Panamanian waters.


by W456
Since there is much comparison between Sidr and the 1991 Bangaladesh Cyclone, I though it would be revelant to post a loop of the 1991 Cyclone.

Link
This image was taken earlier today by NOAA-18 satellite juts south of the Azores.

Taken yesterday by NOAA-16 satellite

Coastal Deserts taken by MODIS TERRA today...click for higher resolution.

Snow cover over Western Russia dropped by a series of storms this week

Philippines Weather Synopsis
=============================

an Active Low Pressure Area (ALPA) was estimated at 80 kms east of Northern Mindanao (9.0°N 127.0°E).
NW of Hawaii

24. H2PV
The large reddish-orange blob at 180 degrees is the remnants of former cyclone SIDR, now 36 hours from breaking on the shores of British Columbia and CONUS west coast. It still contains ample heat energy and moisture capable of making a lot of mischief. Last year one of these remnants caused 28 deaths in Tennessee from flooding and swarms of tornadoes it spawned. Keep an eye on it.

Storm System in the Norwegian Sea. 40-55 Knot winds and 18-26 ft waves are lasing Jan Mayen Island (that small island in the Northern swath).

43 to 58 knot winds and 32 ft seas are being felt across the Northeast Coasts of Ireland.

Sunday Morning for Northeast Iceland

Gale warning with dangerous seas. Small craft advisory. Use extreme caution. Very large long period swell.

Winds: NNW 34 to 46 knots
Seas: N 27 feet at 12 sec.

Afternoon

Very windy with large choppy seas. Small craft advisory. Very large long period swell.

Winds: NNW 22 to 29 knots
Seas: NNE 22 feet at 12 sec.





Weather456, I was wondering, is what H2PV said in post 24 true. I'm only a rookie here, so I don't know that much yet.
26. HrDelta 9:22 PM AST on November 17, 2007 Hide this comment.
Weather456, I was wondering, is what H2PV said in post 24 true. I'm only a rookie here, so I don't know that much yet.


give a sec
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUBA BULLETIN ISSUED AT 0:00 AM UTC
======================================

The Tropical Cyclone Guba (CAT 2) located near 12.2S 146.9E or 380 km east-northeast of Lockhart River and 405 km north-northeast of Cooktown had 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts up to 70 knots. The system is moving west-southwest at 2 knots.

The cyclone has moved slowly southwest in the last 12 hours and it is expected to continue to move slowly, but in a more westerly direction over the next two
days.

The cyclone has shown considerable signs of weakening in the last 24 hours, but is not likely to weaken any further at this stage.

Storm Warning Area
====================
30 NM from the storm's center

Gale Warning Area
==================
60 NM from the storm's center

Forecast Intensity
=================
12 hours = 985 hPa 50 knots
24 hours = 985 hPa 50 knots
It is not true because of two things:

1. That system is near 180E and Sidr made landfall on Thursday. That distance is too far apart to be the remnants.

2. I tracked the remnants and they are currently over Eastern China.

That system is a separate non-tropical system
Terra MODIS Image of the Eastern Galapagos Islands



Western Galapagos Islands



Predominating the Galapagos climate during the summer and fall the nutrient rich Humboldt Current runs up the west coast of South America from Antarctica. This strong current brought both penguins and fur seals to the Galapagos.

As the Humboldt Current moves through the islands it cools both the land and sea temperatures bringing with it a subtropical climate. Winds come from the southeast creating an inversion layer. Low straight formed clouds cover the islands much of the day. A light mist known as locally as %u2018gar%uFFFDa%u2019 frequents the highlands and at times sweeps down to the shore. Though there is more precipitation this time of year it is referred to as the "dry season" since the mist-like garaua made it difficult for settlers to collect water.

The Humboldt Current is strongest in September, causing the surface waters to be choppy. This is the time when most of the boats cruising the islands go into dry-dock. These later months are a good time for Green Sea Turtle sightings (during their mating season) and shark sightings are still high, but rays are seen less frequently.
Thank You. Am I under the correct beleif that, unless we have a situation like Otto in 2004, or Delta, Epsilon, or Zeta in 2005, this Atlantic hurricane season is essentially over?
Ok according to US Census Bureau, Bangladesh had 67 million people in 1970 and 150 million people today (Mind, I don't trust the 1970 figure to within 5 million, or today's figure to within 10 million) For Bangladesh to have reduced the death toll from a severe hurricane landfall from 550,000 in 1970 to perhaps 5,000 today is an extraordinary achievement!
Two hurricanes have hit the USA after this date, in 1925 and 1985.
thank you for the sad deadly tragic update Dr.Masters not all updates can be good unfortunately:(
Hurricane Dean in 3-D. Gotta go find my red & blue glasses.
Wow~ I like the eye one best... red Glad & blue Ziplock container lids work in a pinch.
This system south of the Azores has the potential to become an invest if it is able to persist some more to shed it frontal boundaries.

goodnight all
good evening - anyone around tonight?
31. HrDelta 7:45 PM CST on November 17, 2007
Thank You. Am I under the correct beleif that, unless we have a situation like Otto in 2004, or Delta, Epsilon, or Zeta in 2005, this Atlantic hurricane season is essentially over?


I think that is all we can expect to see in the next month or so (yes, I think there is a slight chance of something developing even after November 30th, but not like Zeta). Usually, such storms develop from non-tropical lows and can withstand very hostile conditions (remember Epsilon and the frustrated NHC forecasters? LOL):

Hurricane Epsilon developed from an extratropical storm on November 29 and gradually developed into a hurricane on December 2, despite a highly hostile environment. Epsilon then held onto hurricane status for several more days, despite all predictions by the National Hurricane Center, before finally dissipating on December 8.

Tropical Storm Epsilon developed out of an extratropical storm in the central Atlantic Ocean on November 29 that had gradually gained tropical characteristics in the wake of Tropical Storm Delta.[1] It was well east of Bermuda at the time and never would get close to land. Epsilon gradually strengthened into a strong tropical storm before it weakened slightly on December 1. The official forecasts from the National Hurricane Center predicted Epsilon would weaken further in the highly sheared environment before becoming an extratropical system again.[2] Unexpectedly, Tropical Storm Epsilon strengthened again on December 2 and became a hurricane over cooler waters averaging 21–24°C (70–75°F) and continuing shear, conditions that are highly unfavorable to maintaining a tropical cyclone. The official forecasts continued to predict weakening and eventual dissipation but Epsilon defied them and remained at hurricane strength for several days. At one point on December 4 it was thought that Epsilon had briefly weakened into a tropical storm, but later re-analysis showed that it had remained a hurricane. Hurricane Epsilon then strengthened further to its peak intensity of 85 mph (135 km/h) just hours later.

Hurricane Epsilon frustrated the forecasters, and the lack of any weakening led NOAA hurricane forecaster Dr. Lixion Avila to say "There are no clear reasons — and I am not going to make one up — to explain the recent strengthening of Epsilon…"[3] The storm maintained its hurricane status for five days while most of the six-hourly forecasts during that period called for it to weaken below that intensity.[4] Dr. Avila also claimed that Epsilon had developed a structure similar to one of an annular hurricane, which enabled it to maintain its strength despite poor conditions.


And Zeta; this also makes me wonder if they were really purely tropical systems and not some weird subtropical hybrid (of course, no recon in the eastern Atlantic), like the strange storm off the coast of Oregon last year.
42. V26R
Anyone still here?
Infrared Image of the Canadian Arctic. One can actual identify the ice sheets using infrared imagery. Image taken by NOAA-17 satellite.

45. IKE
Point Barrow,Alaska.....says goodbye to the sun tomorrow...

Length of Day.....
0h 59m
Tomorrow will be 59m 34s shorter.
..Bangladesh,so many People...



Certified Gold: 1/4/72

The Concert for BanglaDesh is rock reaching for its manhood. Under the leadership of George Harrison, a group of rock musicians recognized, in a deliberate, self-conscious, and professional way, that they have responsibilities -- and went about dealing with them seriously:

My friend came to me,
With sadness in his eyes,
He told me that he wanted help,
Before his country died,
Although I couldn't feel the pain,
I knew I'd have to try,
Now I'm asking all of you,
To help us save some lies

One can ease the suffering with this link. Link
Good morning everyone! Just stopping in real quick. I see we now have TC 04S in the south-west indian ocean and Meteo France has it as a Disturbance. Right now their track calls for it to become a tropical depression in about 12 hours, then a cyclone in 36 hours.
IKE, that must be far north then (goes looking it up on a map)
The Northern most town of Finland still has a couple of days with sun (if it were not cloudy):
Utsjoki: Aurinko nousee 10:19 ja laskee 13:35. Pivn pituus on 3 h 16 min
(The sun rises at 10:19 and sets at 13:35. Length of the day is 3 h 16 min). Next weekend they have to say goodbye to the sun, the "kaamosaika" (winter nights) lasts from November 26 to January 16.

I found the coordinates for both: Nuorgam, the northernmost village in the county of Utsjoki is at 70 05' whereas Barrow is at 71 23' so a bit more than a degree of latitude makes a week difference. wow!

I'll be out for some shopping before it turns dark in about half an hour here in Helsinki. See you later.
Tropical Disturbance 03R

Tropical Disturbance 03R is located within 30 NM of 8.3S/75.5E moving towards the south near 8 knots. Winds near the center are estimated to be 25 knots and central pressure is down to 999 mb.

Morning everybody.

It's good to see that the death toll with Sidr will be much less than in previous storms. While the warning system may not have worked exactly as they wanted it to, the Bangladesh government has definitely done enough to reduce the horrific effects this storm could have produced. While I doubt we will ever be able to completely rule out the possibility of deaths due to tropical systems, at least we can continue to use whatever resources are at our disposal to keep them to a minimum.

My heart goes out to those who have lost relatives and friends in Sidr.

On an unrelated note, we had a cold front pass through the Bahamas Friday and yesterday, bringing with it chilly rains and cooler conditions. This is the first "real" cold front of the season, i. e. one strong enough to moderate the temperatures so that we are below 65 degrees at night, and temperatures have been quite moderate since then. I'm starting to feel a little more confident that we are truly done with the 2007 season.

One can only hope . . . LOL
I found this excerpt from that Bangladeshi news article very interesting:

During monsoons wind streams over the Bay usually have greater force that is lacking in pre and post monsoon wind streams. The monsoon wind stream does not usually allow any cyclonic formation to stay put at a point, forcing the storm to dissipate its force as the forceful wind stream moves it forward. But in post and pre-monsoon seasons, cyclones formed on the Bay get opportunities to stay put at a point for a much longer period, gathering ferocity from evaporating water of the sea, turning into a 'low' first, and then a 'well marked low' and then a 'depression', which turns into a cyclone if it keeps gaining force.

So the reason why TS's don't form during the monsoon is because the wind shear is too high . . .
Sadly the latest report by the IPCC marks the temporary demise of scientific neutrality. Note the word 'temporary' because that is just what we are experiencing today. A temporary loss of the scientific mindset as many scientists slip into a political bias as they interpret the information they encounter.

For centuries, scientists were proud of and insistent upon the pursuit of impartial, unbiased research and interpretation. The IPCC and those who would follow it, have trashed the past for a politically motivated view.

How can I say that? Easy. Can any of you predict the next storm and its path? If you are part of the IPCC ilk, it would appear that you can. Predicting the weather five days out is impossible, yet they have the ability to predict 50 and 100 year weather. ????

As scientists, we must collectively step back from this precipice and begin by recognizing the this climate change debacle is politically motivated. Then we must begin by excising such transient things as politics and preconcieved notions from our daily lives.

We have a choice, we can continue to be the political pawns that the media and politicians have made us appear to be or we can speak out in support of unbiased science where information is evaluated without preconcieved political notions as to what it may mean.

Look at how many of you spewed on 'eyewall' when he/she said, months ago, that the season was mainly over. He/she was right. Many of you were sobbing in the corner that this season would be the SEASON.

The ACE showed that this season was one fourth the strength of 2005 and yet hardly anyone stepped up to discuss the huge disparity between what those figures actually meant and what the NHC was saying about the season. My guess would be that the current scientific 'political' mindset forbids such blasphemy.

Alas, it is up to us.

Which side are you on?

True science or 'political' science.
....SYNOPSIS....

GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 40W....

Upper level southwesterlies dominate the area in association with a ridge over the Northern Caribbean. At the surface, a 1020 mb high is located near 28N/105W bringing fair weather conditions to most of Mexico. Another high pressure system has move over the Southwest Atlantic with 10-15 knot return flow with scattered low level clouds covering most of the Gulf waters. Upper diffluence and low level convergence where the return flow meets an outflow over Eastern Texas are all factors that have ignited and maintain clusters of convection over the Southern United States between Texas and Alabama, south of 35N.

The main feature over the Atlantic is a broad high pressure ridge centered near 31N/69W. The high is supporting fair weather and scattered to broken patches of stratocumulus clouds. At the leading edge of this is a relatively inactive stationary front along 30N/49W 21N/60W to the Northern Coast of Hispaniola at 20N/71W.

By W456
Dr. Masters,
With all respect, I have read the UN report and I wish to pose the following question. Why should we believe these alarmist reports when you and the other experts weren't capable of forecasting this past hurricane season much less a fifty year scenario?
The numbers are the story. A good look in the mirror scares a lot of the ol dogs that never come here unless they see something that rubs them the wrong way.
Love it.
A blind Mouse in Bangkok can see the Global changes occurring and the cause. Accept the trend and remember..every effect,has a cause.
"All literate citizens of the world should read the 23-page report."

Good thing I am illiterate..... Don't have to read that "the sky is falling" again!

We should clean up our air and water, and just realize there is little we can do if the globe is warming, because the globe has warmed and cooled thousands of times with or without our help!

Who determines what the optimal climate should be??
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION....

Deep layer ridging covers the entire Caribbean with anticyclonic flow extending from Central America, across the Northern Caribbean into the Western Tropical Atlantic. A tropical wave is located near 85W south of 18N. Clusters of thunderstorms are found within 300 nm east of the axis south of 12N mainly associated with the ITCZ and the Colombia Low. A second wave is located near 69W south of 19N. The wave is interacting with the tail end of the frontal boundary over the Atlantic is produce isolated showers and thunderstorms along the Northern Coast of Haiti. Additional clusters of weak to moderate showers further south along the axis near 15N.

Elsewhere...fair weather dominates the remainder the Caribbean. 13 to 18 knot easterly winds is over the Caribbean Sea east of 70W, becoming northeasterly at 20-30 knots over the Southwest Caribbean. Very windy with large choppy seas can be expected here and mariners and drug traffickers should use extreme caution over open waters especially near Colombia.


by W456
Numbers are numbers.
Heres a few unbiased ones.
Never turn away from the data.
Politics are not the motivators here.

Link
Heres 1.53 million more.

Link
possible tropical/subtropical system in the coming days?
Mornin folks

64. IKE
taistelutipu 7:37 AM CST on November 18, 2007
IKE, that must be far north then (goes looking it up on a map)


It is far northern Alaska...on the northern slope.
I've read alot of interesting papers about GW on BOTH sides of the issue. What I find MOST interesting about the whole issue is how scientists not in line with a particular idea are attacked and discredited by those who are.

Interesting note from history (Wikipedia):

Galileo's championing of Copernicanism was controversial within his lifetime. The geocentric view had been dominant since the time of Aristotle, and the controversy engendered by Galileo's opposition to this view resulted in the Catholic Church's prohibiting the advocacy of heliocentrism as potentially factual, because that theory had no decisive proof and was contrary to the literal meaning of Scripture.[6] Though he had managed to evade the Roman Inquisition for a year,[5][not in citation given] Galileo was eventually forced to recant his heliocentrism and spent the last years of his life under house arrest on orders of the Inquisition.

It should also be pointed out that the Catholic church WAS the political leadership at this time.

Just a little interesting tidbit

morning all, beautiful weather here. How about you all?
BajaALemt or ike, can someone tell me how to make my approved photo also my portrait?
i see where it says to upload your portrait, but I would like to use the photo which is already approved in my photo album...
hello? am i being ingnored? if i ask just one person maybe. Ok, Ike, can you help me?
wxhatt

When you upload the photo for portrait, click the box that says 'primary portrait for bio'
After that, it will take a little while to show up (waiting for approval)
ok, i think this is it.
thanks baja!t
but the photo was already approved in my photo album, so when i clicked on that box it did not take. it makes me wonder if it will have to be appvd again..???
i mean, why have to get the same photo which has already been appvd for your photo album, be appvd a second time. redundant, isn't it...
does anyone know about this? Baja? U still here? ;)
may be i will drop out of this convo...

LOL
wxhatt has been shunned. sobbing with lament...

hangs his head and walks away...
BTW

A written report, signed by three meteorologists presenting our opinion, to a reasonable degree of scientific certainty, as to the weather conditions at a particular place during a given time frame. Our report expresses our opinion of the weather conditions at the exact street address where the incident took place, as opposed to the nearest airport. The data used in preparation of a comprehensive site-specific report come from all available sources of weather data. This is the most detailed report available.
wxhatt, reminder...this is Sunday and the individual responsible for allowing such a transaction might not be at his/her terminal until tomorrow.

That is assuming that an individual is ultimately resonsible. It took a bit of time for my ghost orchid to get to the right place too.
Numbers are going higher...

"We are expecting that thousands of dead bodies may be found within a few days," said Shekhar Chandra Das, the deputy head of the government's disaster management office.

The Bangladesh Red Crescent Society said the toll could hit 10,000 once rescuers reach outlying islands.

"The death toll has already reached 3,000 confirmed dead," M Abdur Rab, chairman of the Bangladeshi Red Crescent Society, told AFP news agency.
Hi Baja and everyone!

Baja, fortunately scientists who are not in line with the dominating idea no longer face the threat of being burned alive on the stake like Galileo's contemporary Giordano Bruno. Although he also held the view of Copernicanism there were also other theological reasons why he was burnt as a heretic.
Nowadays it's rather about governmental subsidies for research which are paid or not to certain scientists or how these are represented in the media.

Here in Finland climate is definitely changing. Last winter we had no snow until January 22nd! The whole of Finland up to a latitude of about 64° was practically snowfree. People sent eachother selfmade christmas cards showing themselves mowing the lawn with the wish: happy green christmas. Well, that was rather exceptional but over the last 30 years the average duration of constant snow cover in South Finland has decreased about one month from 5 to 4 months.
In Germany people went in T-shirts on the traditional christmas fairs (temperatures were around 15C / 60F) and shopkeepers rather served caipirinha instead of spiced hot wine. The previous winter 2005/6 was the complete opposite: unceasing snow fall covered the south with up to 4 m snow (13 ft).
So the weather of the last years in Europe seems to be pretty messed up. 2002 had extreme flooding, 2003 extreme heat with about 70,000 dead (final report of a study published in spring 2007), 2005/6 extreme snowfall and 2006/7 the mildest winter on record. What's next?
Good morning!

The 2007 season in my personal opinion the atlantic tropics are now over or better yet has been over for the past couple of weeks as fast upper level are now in control of most of the basin.Just wanted to come on to wish everyone on WU a great holiday season with there families this holiday season and let the long offseason role across the atlantic basin.

PS!Its truly turned out to be a terrible situation out across the area were SIDR came in and my thoughts and prayers go out to the lifes lost in this horrible tragedy.

I'll be working on my website over the offseason and also working on my degree and if anyone wants to get in touch you can always reach me at adrlnr@yahoo.com or at my website www.Adrian's Weather.com Thanks.
What is particularily tragic about all this is the fact that we have such a vast amount of information at our fingertips. All we have to do is sit down at our computers and search to our hearts content. Along with that vast amount of information comes a responsibility to view it and interpret it in an unbiased, neutral viewpoint.

Take one look at the proponents of 'manmade' global warming and it is easy to see their bias in all its' shameful glory. When it is unseasonably cold in a given area, that event is commented on as being further prove that global warming is having an effect. Unseasonable ranfall amounts, either as a drought or an excess is, likewise, touted as proof of global warming. Nevermind that droughts, unexpected monsoons and other unseasonable events have occured since before mankind kept records.

Must history repeat itself once again, as it did in Galileo's time. Do we allow the politically motivated among us to bastardize the information and possibly cause us to miss the true implications and precipitate a real, unexpected, disaster?

Wasn't it Dick Tracy who was wont to say, 'Just the facts.'

We scientists are in the frontlines, we are obligated to remain unbiased, without pre-concieved viewpoints when we analyze any data we encounter. Chicken Little has no place in our world.

How many different individuals posted, back in late September, that the season was over? They were right. How many of us attacked them for their temerity at having the gall to make such predictions? Perhaps we owe them an apology.
OMG, I hope 10,000 is just a very pessimistic estimation. 3,000 is already enough. My prayers go out to the survivors. They face now the aftermath with the threat of diseases due to the polluted water. Hopefully the Red Cross /Crescent transports water cleansing facilities out there quickly but I fear not enough for all :-( The death toll could still rise in the next weeks.
I just came across an impressive satellite image of the Elbe flooding in 2002: August 14 and August 20 in comparison. Under the second picture is a link to a high res image 2.856 × 3.000 pixel.
These events are called "once in a century events" so there have always been floods but unfortunately they occur now more frequently - the next one occured already in 2006 which in some places broke the records set in 2002.
Here I am talking about just one river, in the last decade there were other floods of the river Oder (1997) or the Danube (2002 and 2005) just to name the worst ones. German scientists said that global warming does not necessarily mean a warming of the climate but in the case of Central Europe a wetter climate with more floods. The last 10 years show clearly this tendency.
Another manmade factor is the increase of high-density areas and river regulations. In the 1960s and 70s it was believed that rivers could be tamed by framing them with concrete boundaries - how wrong! It somewhat worked well until the rain rates rose in the 1990s resulting in devastating floods.
Latest satellite analysis shows a non tropical low pressure system is becoming detached from its associated frontal boundaries which moving off to the east leaving the initial low behind. Cyclone phase diagrams show the system is merely a weak cold-core lows while others suggest a system that is neither warm-core or cold core. Quikscat determined the strongest winds are near 30-35 knots in the northern quadrant where the low meets the Azores Ridge. Quikscat also reinforced the findings that the front is well ahead of the initial low, while this is typical of mid-latitude lows, these fronts are associated with another low which will move off the northeast leaving the system of interest behind.

Meteosat Image of the Northeast Atlantic

How many different individuals posted, back in late September, that the season was over? They were right. How many of us attacked them for their temerity at having the gall to make such predictions? Perhaps we owe them an apology.

I disagree with this. The season was not in fact "over"; the facts are that the season's worst storm in terms of death toll happened in November, less than three weeks ago. It was attitudes like those of the people you are quoting ("ah, the season is over, we don't need to pay attention to some little tropical storm") that made it possible for the death toll in Noel to rise so high.

These poeple had an opinion; they were WRONG. I don't need to apologize to them, but neither do they need to apologize to me. Unfortunately there is a lot more at stake with the world climate issue than a blog argument. And whether you believe humanity is contributing to the global warming process or not, it's foolish to dismiss all the evidence. If nothing else, it's a reminder that our planet is an interconnected system of resources that should be respected and cared for to the best of our ablity.
BTW, lin, is your avatar a flower, more particularly an orchid? It looks like that.
hello all - nice to see you Baha. The conditions in Bangladesh are terrible. Always sad to see that people who don't have the resources are the ones who are hurt.
86: I just came across an impressive satellite image of the Elbe flooding in 2002

Amazing picture taistelutipu!

I saw the Donau (Danube) flood of 2002 at Passau. I also saw the 2001 flood on the Ouse at York, which was the second highest in over 1000 years of recorded history.

As you say, it is not that we have not had floods before, it is just that the return period for a given event is getting less.

Is this anthropogenic? We don't know as we do not have a long enough baseline. We do know, however, that the luminosity of the sun has increased by 1% over the last century and by 30% over the lifespan of the earth, so things do change naturally.

In my view (feel free to debate this!), we should be employing the precautionary principle here, we may not be causing climate change but, just in case we are, we should be doing something about it. According to the Stern Report for the UK Government published earlier this year, we only need to invest 1-2% of our GDP to be able to address the problem. Is this too much to ask?

We have a moral duty to do this as we in the West exploit far too much of the world's limited resources and we know that, if anthropogenic global warming does come to pass, it is people like those in Bangladesh who will suffer most.

We should invest these modest sums in our planet's future, and not wait for significant statistical evidence (at the 5% level, 1% level, 0.1% level, or even lower???) by which time it may be too late to do anything about it.

I agree that such decisions are political, not scientific, but there is a moral dimension here which everyone (including scientists and politicians) must take on board.
lindenii - thank goodness for the voice of balance and reason. What short memories we have. In the 70's and 80's we were being warmed about an impeding ice age - supposedly by climatic experts. History is clear on this, there have been periods when the earth has been far warmer and far colder than it is now. It is unbelieveable that people are fooled by snapsots of a few decades and brainwashed by politicians who use the GW farce to hide the real man made catastrophes on earth. Once the GW taxes hit peoples pockets, the emphasis will shift onto something else. Its a passing fad, misrepresented by people attempting to justify their own existence. When they can get the weather right next week - I might listen to their views. Just the humble view of a tired individual bored of this worthless debate.
Low Level Cumulus Streamers over the Gulf of Guinea



TROPICAL CYCLONE 03R WARNING NUMBER TWO ISSUED AT 18:00 PM UTC - UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
========================================

The Perturbation Tropicale located 2580 kms east-northeast of La Reunion's coast strengthened into a depression tropicale with 10 min sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts up to 45 knots moving south-southeast at 7 knots.

Central Pressure: 997 hPa

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Additional Information
=========================
Forecast Position and intensity

12 HRS - 10.3S 76.8E 35 kts
24 HRS - 11.6S 77.0E 40 kts

This system exist in an environment favorable for intensification. It should track globally southward within the next 36 hours then recurve westward.
Up to 10,000 dead in cyclone-hit Bangladesh: officials

5 hours ago

BARGUNA, Bangladesh (AFP) — Up to 10,000 people are dead and millions homeless and hungry in cyclone-hit Bangladesh, officials said Sunday, as the army and aid workers battled to reach the devastated coast.

Three days after cyclone Sidr tore into one of the world's poorest nations from the Bay of Bengal, rescue workers were still fighting their way through a landscape of flattened villages and traumatised crowds.

Survivors on the isolated southern coast, where many areas were still out of reach for aid convoys, warned they would soon die unless help arrived.

"I lost six of my family members in the cyclone. I am afraid that the rest three of us will die of hunger. We are without food and water for the last few days," said a 55-year-old farmer, Sattar Gazi.

"For the corpses, we don't even have clothes to wrap them in for burial... we are wrapping the bodies in leaves," he told AFP in a village situated on the Bay of Bengal coastline and smashed by a six-metre (20 foot) high tidal wave.

Abdul Zabbar, a 50-year-old teacher, said the situation in the area -- already one of the most impoverished places on earth -- was unbearable.

"There is no food and drinking water. Bodies are still floating in the rivers and paddy fields," he said, adding the rice harvest -- or four months of food -- had been washed away.

Victims told an AFP correspondent who managed to reach this coastal area that they had not seen any aid workers, let alone a plane or helicopter.

Officials said the humanitarian situation in coastal districts like Barguna, 200 kilometres (130 miles) south of the capital Dhaka, was catastrophic.

"I have never seen such a catastrophe in my 20 years as a government administrator," said district official Harisprasad Pal.

The chairman of the Bangladeshi Red Crescent Society, the country's central humanitarian organisation, said 3,000 bodies had already been recovered.

He said the death toll "may cross 5,000, but it will remain below 10,000."

Officials have stressed they expect many more victims will be found in remote areas, including around poor fishing villages in the string of small islands off the coast.

Aid efforts were being hampered by roads blocked by fallen trees and the sheer scale of the devastation.

"In the remote areas it is slow-going, they are almost chopping trees as they go along," said Douglas Casson Coutts of the World Food Programme, adding that officials were working with the military to organise air drops to the most inaccessible districts.

Red Cross and Red Crescent workers said they were using their network of volunteers to distribute dried food and plastic sheeting for temporary shelters, but that many helpers were themselves victims.

"Our estimate is that 900,000 families are affected," said Red Cross official Shafiquzzaman Rabbani.

That figure amounts to roughly seven million people -- no small task for the army helicopters and navy ships sent out to distribute food, medicine and relief materials.

Most of the deaths were caused by the tidal wave which engulfed coastal villages, as well as flying debris and falling trees that crushed flimsy bamboo and tin homes -- all that most people in Bangladesh can afford.

A stunned 25-year-old woman, Jahanara, recounted how she managed to cling to a tree as the storm ripped away everything around her, including her husband, two sons and mother, and even the clothes on her back.

Bangladesh was also taking stock of the ecological cost-- with the Sunderbans, the world's biggest mangrove forest and home to the endangered Royal Bengal tiger, taking the brunt of the storm.

"The cyclone has inflicted an ecological disaster," said Shanti Ranjan Das of the government's livestock department.

The vast mangrove forest, listed as a World Heritage Site by the UN cultural organisation UNESCO, is a natural tide barrier crucial to the long-term survival of coastal communities.
Yes baha, it is actually a Ghost Orchid.

The picture was taken by my son when he was deep in the Fakahatchee Strand here in South Florida. The location of the flower is known only to him.

That particular photo does not begin to shown the true 'personality' of the flower. For an idea of the mystique of the ghost, rent the movie, 'Adaptation' which is based on the book 'The Orchid Thief'.
baha,

Your comments in Post # 88 demonstrate just how the facts are so easily distorted because of the desire to make something more than it is. Those folks were killed, not by the wind intensity of the storm, but by the 'effects' of the rainfall that ensued. They did not evacuate because it is likely that they had no place to go or that they were willing to 'take their chances' with the 'effects' of Noel. An intense tropical wave could easily done the same damage...how would that have been spun?

The effects of a lack of an effective national infrastructure does not a major storm make and Noel was no major storm. Eyewall and others were essentially correct that the season was over.

Trying to make an overgrown thunderstorm into something it was not, demonstrates how off the mark we have gone and how we must work to keep our perspective in the future.

As for this discussion thread, keep in mind that we are not arguing the facts, we are attempting to address the sad change in how we, as scientists, have strayed from being unbiased, impartial observers and interpreters to being almost 'hacks' with pre-conceived notions and political motivations. It is almost as if the Inquisition is rearing its ugly head under the banner of Manmade Global Warming (MGW).

Eyewall made observations that went counter to MGW and he was ridiculed for it. Same facts in play and somehow he was the 'fool' and yet he was more correct than his assailants. There are two sides to every set of facts and their interpretation, and we collectively need to respect each other and our interpretations.

To repeat...Chicken Little has no place in scientific discussion and interpretations.
HurricaneBlast, could you provide a link to that article? I want to inform people on the latest with this sickening disaster. Thanks.
Thanks for the info on the orchid, lin.

We have only one small species of orchid commonly found here, but they are beautiful flowers. I may read the book as well as see the movie.
I don't think the debate is worthless. I think the debate reminds us that "no man is an island" and that our actions do affect others, whether we want them to or not. I also think the debate is making us more conscious of the fact that the earth is constantly changing, in flux, and that we should monitor changes so that where possible we can prepare for the future. Whether or not we are changing the earth, we will have to live with the changes (or die as a result of them). Finally the debate can help inform our decisions, IF we are willing to inform ourselves fully about all sides of the question. For example, people building residences in coastal zones may want to revert to the habit of building inexpensively, since storms are an inevitibility of life and since we appear to be in a period of increased storm activity.

I see value in the debate, so long as the debate is actually listened to and not dismissed.
Good Morning!
97. lindenii 2:26 PM EST on November 18, 2007
baha,

Your comments in Post # 88 demonstrate just how the facts are so easily distorted because of the desire to make something more than it is. Those folks were killed, not by the wind intensity of the storm, but by the 'effects' of the rainfall that ensued. They did not evacuate because it is likely that they had no place to go or that they were willing to 'take their chances' with the 'effects' of Noel. An intense tropical wave could easily done the same damage...how would that have been spun?


This is why I made the comments I did. By "minimizing" the effects of a tropical system - that is, assuming that the worst effects only occur when a major hurricane, or at least a hurricane, is affecting land - people gave the impression there was no reason to prepare.

I give you the case of three other areas which TS Noel affected. Rainfall in excess of 20 - 25 inches also fell in the Central Bahamas. Flooding on the islands there was massive; many homes were submerged. Despite this, only one death occurred. In Haiti, where high death tolls due to flooding rains are commonplace, less than 20% of the Dominican Republic's death toll was experienced. Despite the fact that the areas affected by the storm are particularly prone to river flooding and mudslides, relatively few deaths occurred. Even in Puerto Rico, where Noel was in fact a strong tropical wave, there was extensive heavy rain, flooding, and, if my memory serves me correctly at least one landslide. However, deaths there were restricted to at the most 5.

The difference between these other locales and the Dominican Republic, where the most devastating tolls were experienced, was only this: people in the Dominican Republic were not at any time warned by their government, while people in the other areas WERE. Why did this happen? I don't know what motivated the DR government; in the other areas, people realized that THE SEASON WAS NOT OVER!!! People took precautions; they moved away from low-lying areas; they stayed at home instead of going about their normal business. On the other hand, in the Dominican Republic the opposite was true, and therefore people who might otherwise have made a lifesaving choice were killed.

The effects of a lack of an effective national infrastructure does not a major storm make and Noel was no major storm. Eyewall and others were essentially correct that the season was over.

This is my point. The season doesn't end when "major" storms are over. The season ends when tropical systems no longer form. I assure you that record-keepers and weather scientists will consider Noel a part of the 2007 hurricane season.

Trying to make an overgrown thunderstorm into something it was not, demonstrates how off the mark we have gone and how we must work to keep our perspective in the future.

If you make this argument, I can argue quite as logically that both Felix and Dean, and even the recent Sidr, are merely "overgrown thunderstorms". If I had argued that Noel had the same effects as a cat 5, perhaps I could see things your way. As it is, I think "keeping our perspective" might be more possible if we remain cognizant that while the sky may not be falling (to use your Chicken Little allusion), that doesn't mean what IS falling can't kill you. Say, a large chunk of hail? A waterlogged tree?

I still maintain that eyewall made some dogmatic and essentially unfounded statements which the scientific record has already proved to be inaccurate. Moreover, if eyewall was ridiculed, I venture to say that most of the ridicule was directed at his ATTITUDE rather than his facts (of which there not many to begin with, considering the nature of the prediction).

As for this discussion thread, I have a feeling we are not far from each other in terms of our thinking. I'm essentially an agnostic on the MMGW issue, though I am convinced a warming trend is definitely taking place. How long it lasts is anybody's guess right now. I just feel it's a lot easier to take down my storm shutters after the hurricane that didn't happen than rebuild my house after the one that did because I didn't "think the storm would be that bad".


More importantly to me, the measures that are being suggested to "prevent" MMGW are basically the same things we should be doing to preserve the aspects of the planet which sustain human life and community. Why are we arguing against these measures?
Hey lin,

I'm really enjoying a discussion that is both reasoned and mannered. What a pleasure to talk with someone who while disagreeing does not simultaneously descend into screeching, whining, name-calling, threatening, etc. ad nauseum! Unfortunately I have to go out for a few hours, and will likely not be back until about 8 p.m. EST. Maybe we can continue then?

If not, thanks for the conversation.
Trying to make an overgrown thunderstorm into something it was not, demonstrates how off the mark we have gone and how we must work to keep our perspective in the future.

There are always people who try to minimize this past season, because in their minds it was a total bust, even moreso than last year and they refuse to accept that it was in fact an active and bad season for Central America and the Caribbean; in fact, you only have to go back a few years to find seasons that were less damaging (pre-2004, pre-2003 for the U.S only; the worst U.S. storm in 2000-2002 was mostly subtropical*, and only one hurricane hit the U.S. in those three years - out of 42 storms and 21 hurricanes) than this year, yet I don't recall people calling them inactive or busts. Also see my post here.

*Pretty good proof of just what a "mere" tropical storm can do:

Tropical Storm Allison hit southern Texas in early June. It stalled over the state, moved southward, eastward, hit Louisiana, and continued through the northeast. Allison eventually became extratropical on the 18th, after causing heavy flooding throughout its path, especially in Texas and Louisiana.

Although a minimal storm and barely tropical, Allison is one of the costliest and deadliest tropical cyclones to affect the United States, and the worst tropical storm on record in that nation. FEMA estimated damages at $5 billion, nearly all of it related to freshwater flooding in the Greater Houston region. There are 41 deaths directly attributable to Allison, 27 of them due to flooding.


Also, in reply to the comments a while back about the unusually low ACE this year and mostly short-lived storms; the entire Northern Hemisphere has been like 1977, with the exception of the Atlantic (more than twice as active, both storm numbers and ACE; indeed, if the Atlantic had been as inactive as in 1977, it is possible that 2007 would be the least active year so far in some categories) and the North Indian Ocean; I attribute this difference (at least the Atlantic) to La Nina vs. El Nino:

2007 fewest Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone days since 1977 (to date)
2007 fewest Northern Hemisphere hurricane days since 1977 (to date)
2007 lowest Northern Hemipshere tropical cyclone activity on record since 1977 ACE (to date)
2007 second lowest Northern Hemipshere tropical cyclone activity since 1977 and 1981 PDI (to date)
2007 lowest NH September activity on record since 1977
2006 and 2007 lowest NH October activity on record since 1976 and 1977
baha,

First of all, in reference to your next to the last paragraph, I agree completely with you...we really are not that far apart in our views.

As for eyewall...it is my belief that most of what he predicted was...'tongue in cheek'. He simply took the same information the most others were using to wring their hands in dismay and interpreted the information to suggest an end to the season. Except for a sputtering storm named Noel, he/she was essentially correct.

Take your example of the various governments and their reactions to the information. That goes back to my mention of national infrastructure. The mistake that was made was not related to minimizing the storm itself, it was in not taking into account the actual dangers. Those dangers were, as you mentioned, mudslides and the like. The storm itself was a no show in intensity, the rains that accompanied it were the villian in this story and the affected governments were remiss in not warning their citizens of those dangers like mudslides.

Global warming, for example, should not find us trying to read our own biases into the information we have gathered. Archaeological records for the last million years, show clearly that global warming has occurred with remarkable regularity and yet we want to assert that our knowledge of the weather, based on 150 years, somehow makes us (mankind) responsible. Are we really experts at predicting the future when it comes to the weather?. In the days leading up to the naming of Noel, all of the various gurus were coming up with random predicitons as to the navigation as well as the intensity of the storm. It was obvious that they had no clue regarding any predictions.

Doing the math, we are attempting to claim superior knowledge with only 15/1000 of a percent of the actual information. Saying that global warming is manmade is very arrogant of us and flies in the face of scientific principles of impartiality.
A potential developing gale system.



MSLP and PRECIP forecast

MichaelSTL,

I must compliment you on your balanced response.

You actually hit the nail on the head.

Science and news are two different worlds. The news reports what happened and tries to describe the aftermath of an event. There is nothing scientific about reporting news, at least in its most generic sense. Objectivity is nice, yet not obligatory and most media do not hide their bias.

In the world of science, there is, or atleast there was, a totally different set of rules to live by. And those rules are the ones I have mentioned previously. Namely an unbiased, impartial approach to the compilation and/or interpretaion of the facts.

Nothing more, nothing less.
the yellow arrow on the map is indicating the general track of the potential storm.
*pops in for lunch* Afternoon folks...

Mare's tails......mackeral skies here in the panhandle. Yay! Maybe some rain AFTER ALL *smiles*
Quick update.

In post # 105 there was mention of tropical cyclone activity. On the same website there was this information.

" The North Atlantic hurricane season is currently nearly 30% below normal in terms of a well-known activity metric called ACE. While the number of named storms is above normal, their integrated intensity has not matched the hyper-active expectations of many seasonal forecasters (e.g. NOAA 140-200% above median). The Eastern Pacific off the western coast of Mexico is also experiencing record inactivity."

Could it be that their (NOAA) agenda got in the way of clear thinking and predicting? Hmmm.
STL it is interesting to note also that prior to the currently active TC Guba, 1977 was the last time a tropical cyclone formed in the Coral Sea east of Australia in the month of November.
Wow, this has got to be one of the fastest developing systems this year. the Navy didnt even have time to put the TCFA on their site before the JTWC declared this a TD:

Navy infrared imagery suggests cloud tops as cold as -90 degrees celsius
115. KRL
It's crazy in a world filled with so many truly complex and dangerous things that simple water from storms kills so many people every year.

In addition to the people lost in Bangladesh, over 300,000 animals estimated drowned also.

:(
Navy just recently raised the wind speed/pressure up to 25 knots/1002mb for the TD upgrade and they have been re-raised to 30 knots/1000mb
You don't see this that often; cloud tops appear to be as cold as -100ºC:



I actually believe NOAA's prediction was completely reasonable. With recent trends and the la nina conditions. They said 85% chance of above active season, they were correct. They said 13-16 names (originally 13-17) and they were correct. Not a terrible prediction. And yes, ACE was below the mean average, BUT, a season is only below average in ACE when the ACE is below 66, and this season has had a total of 67.0. Therefore the ACE is "near normal."
Tropical Front

A weather front is a boundary between two masses of air of different densities, and is the principal cause of significant weather. In surface weather analyses, fronts are depicted using various colored lines and symbols. The air masses separated by a front usually differ in temperature, humidity and stability. Examples of fronts include cold front, warm front, occluded fronts, outflow boundaries and the ITCZ.

This tropical front in the Tropical Eastern Pacific Ocean actually separates two different air masses - the cool, stable, low humidity marine layer of the SE trade regime and the warm, unstable, high humidity air of the NE trade wind regime.

As they collide with each other the warmer northeast trades are lifted over the more stable southeast trades. Imagine rolling bread doe between your hand which are moving different directions - thats how the frontal ropes form.

Cloud streets are rows of cumulus or cumulus-type clouds aligned parallel to the low-level wind.

The most favorable conditions for their formation occur when the lowermost layer of air is unstable, but is capped by an inversion-by a stable layer of air. This often occurs when upper air is subsiding, such as under anticyclonic conditions, and is also frequently found when radiation fog has formed overnight. Convection occurs below the inversion, with air rising in thermals below the clouds and sinking in the air between the streets.




Lifted Index and Precipitable water (in)
120. BtnTx
link:

http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2007/11/14/nasa-debunks-part-global-warming-myth-will-me dia-report-it
Here is something odd that I found about La Nina, it seems messed up though:

An unexpected crop of sardines off the coast of Chile? Tuna in the Gulf of Alaska? Lower heating bills in the U.S.? Fewer hurricanes in the Atlantic?

Enter La Niña. During a La Niña event, an abnormal cooling in the eastern Pacific produces conditions more or less the opposite of those created by El Niño—nature’s way, perhaps, of rectifying the heat imbalance that El Niño represents. As with El Niño, the effects of La Niña are most pronounced from December to March.
.
.
.

The polar jet stream, which in an El Niño year stays high in Canada, moves farther south, driving frigid air down into the U.S. Winters are colder, especially in the northwestern and upper midwestern states. The subtropical jet stream that blows across Mexico and the Gulf during El Niño events weakens during La Niña; consequently, far less rain falls in the Gulf and southeastern states. Drought is common in the desert Southwest. Hurricanes in the tropical Atlantic encounter no westerly wind resistance and therefore are twice as likely to strike the U.S. The 1998 La Niña hurricane season was the deadliest in the past two centuries.


Seems to say that La Nina means less hurricanes, but greater landfall risk for the U.S. (but how many hurricanes hit the U.S. in 1988, and was 1998 really that bad for the U.S.?)... Also contradicts itself about lower heating bills and colder winters(?!)
Perhaps there are other variables at work that made it so 2007's La Nina wasnt so bad for the US
Well, for many of the storms, they tracked far to the south, as a result of an unusually strong Bermuda High; most of the storms this year in fact had a pronounced westward bias vs. the NHC and most model forecasts.
Some interesting weather this thanksgiving weekend. A potential subtropical storm as seen in the GFS forecast below. Valid 2100 UTC WED. Notice how the 20C isotherm encircles the low. That indicates a barotropic system. Examples of barotropic systems are tropical cyclones, cold core upper level lows and cold core upper level highs, warm-core upper level highs. Also notice that the 20C isotherm crosses the system's isobars. That indicates baroclinic conditions, typical of extratropical storms.

Subtropical storms have characteristics of both systems and even though there are more factors involved it is still a system of interest.



A very strong extra tropical cyclone will develop over Eastern Canada and its associated cold front strong expected to move across Eastern US later on Saturday. This system will dump a good amount of snow over the fair NE US and Eastern Canada.


Storm System Impacts Northern Ireland and the Western Europe

Marine Discussion....

A storm system that is currently located over United kingdom is producing 30-35 knot northeast winds and 20 ft waves which are impacting the north and eastern coasts of Ireland and the United Kingdom. Gale warning in effect for dangerous seas with very large period swells. Small craft are advise to exercise extreme caution. Several buoys across the Donegal Bay (between the island of Ireland and northern UK) namely buoy 62093 is reporting 28 knot winds and seas of 14.1 ft. Another buoy - 64045 - K5 is reporting waves of 22 ft.







extreme236,

In post # 118

I have a problem with you calling an ACE of 67 as being near normal because it is one point higher than the 66 which you describe as being called below normal.

When compared to the climatological number which is '92' (COAPS) the assignment of 'near normal' seems a bit out of kilter. According to their (COAPS) calculation it was described as -30% below normal. Near normal when it is -30% of normal?? Why such a discrepacy?
Maybe this is a classic case of the media incorrectly reporting something or the weather experts weren't very clear, however the yellow press reported that this active hurricane season would be hurricanes that would be on or near US. I pay a fair amount of attention to this stuff and was unaware that they just meant in our hemisphere apparently.
pilotguy1

It was my impression the northern hemisphere meant anything north of the equator. And is the reason that they break the data down to the North Atlantic etc.
Beautiful Extratropical Low in the Northern Central Pacific.

however the yellow press reported that this active hurricane season would be hurricanes that would be on or near US.

Exactly... False reporting and hype; for example, this piece of incredibly misinforming hype:

Frightening forecast
Predictions are rolling in almost daily now from various forecasters around the globe all claiming that the La Nina effect will increase the number and intensity of the Gulf storms this hurricane season. Some are calling for as many as 17 storms that will hit all along the Gulf Coast. The Gulf, especially the Houston area is well known for its refineries, off loading terminals, and drilling operations.


No forecaster ever said that they would all hit the Gulf Coast... indeed, this is from Troopical Storm Risk's August update (many others don't even try to forecast landfalls):

TSR continues to forecast an active Atlantic hurricane season in 2007 but reduces slightly its forecast for US landfalling hurricane activity.


They forecast 1-2 hurricanes and 4 tropical storms to hit the U.S.; how many really hit? 1 hurricane (Humberto) and 4 tropical storms (Barry, Erin, Gabrielle and Humberto). So they were right on with that; luckily none of the storms were particularly bad (their December 2006 forecast had 2 hurricanes and 4-5 storms; the 57 year average is 1-2 hurricanes and 3 storms).

Also, this study makes that article even more misleading - La Nina DOES NOT increase the threat to the Gulf Coast:

The effects of El Nino Southern Oscillation on hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin as a whole have been well established. It is known that El Nino suppresses hurricane activity while La Nina enhances it. Regional differences in the impact of El Nino/La Nina hurricane landfalls have been observed in the Caribbean. The present study focuses on regional differences in the impact of ENSO on hurricane landfalls in the United States.

Hurricane landfall frequencies for Florida and the U.S. East Coast (Georgia to Maine) for El Nino, neutral, and La Nina years are presented. An increase compared to neutral years in Florida landfalling hurricanes for La Nina years is not observed; however, there are more hurricanes making landfall in Florida than along the East Coast during neutral years. Results for the Gulf Coast (Alabama through Texas) are nearly identical to those for Florida. La Nina appears to only increase hurricane landfall activity relative to neutral years from Georgia northward in the United States.


There is also this, saying that La Nina increases the threat to Texas:

One of the researchers today -- and since the conference is "off the record" I am going to withhold names -- presented fairly compelling evidence that a La Nina is particularly bad for the Gulf Coast and Mexico. The scientist broke down storms in the Atlantic basin into three groups:

Cluster A: Storms that form out in the Atlantic and typically curve into the Eastern U.S. or back out into the ocean.
Cluster B: Storms that form between the Canary Islands and Florida, and generally strike Florida or the Gulf Coast.
Cluster C: Storms that form in the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico, and impact the Gulf Coast from Mexico to Florida.

Based on the talk, during La Nina years, two bad things tend to happen for Texas. First of all, according to graphics shown at the conference, the paths of Cluster C storms shift westward, so instead of hitting Florida or even curving back into the Atlantic, they hit Mexico or southern Texas. The Bay of Campeche is incredibly active.

Secondly, the activity in Cluster C blows up during La Nina years.

By way of comparison, for "Cluster A" storms in recent decades, 52 storms formed during El Nino years and 39 during La Nina years. For "Cluster C" storms -- which are much more likely to strike Texas -- the opposite is true. Just 36 storms formed during El Nino years, versus 56 during La Nina.


Also note that less storms form out in the open Atlantic; more hostile conditions? The Gulf was certainly hyperactive this year - note also that 2006 actually had more storms develop in the tropical Atlantic than even 2005, while having zero storms develop in the Gulf:



Overall, the U.S. was very lucky this year; that may not hold true next year though (I of course can't tell you what will happen next year). We could see another period like 2000-2002, which saw just one (Cat 1) hurricane hit the U.S. in that period, as mentiond before, the worst U.S. storm was a weak tropical storm that was subtropical most of its life; rain (flooding and mudslides) is often the most destructive effect of tropical cyclones.
Dry Slot: A zone of dry (and relatively cloud-free) air which wraps east- or northeastward into the southern and eastern parts of a synoptic scale or mesoscale low pressure system. A dry slot generally is seen best on satellite photographs. Dry slot should not be confused with clear slot, which is a storm-scale phenomenon.


TROPICAL CYCLONE GUBA ADVICE NUMBER ELEVEN ISSUED AT 0:00 AM UTC
=============================================

At 21:00 pm UTC, The Tropical Cyclone Guba (CAT 1) located near 12.2S 144.7E or 155 kilometres east northeast of Lockhart River had 10 min sustained winds of 45 knots with gust up to 65. The cyclone is moving west-northwest at 6 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Guba has intensified in the last few hours and is expected to continue to intensify and may make landfall on the east coast of Cape York Peninsula as early as tonight.

Tropical Cyclone Watch/Warning
==============================
A FLASH Tropical Cyclone WARNING has been declared for the coastal and island communities between Thursday Island to Cape Melville, and extending over the remainder of Cape York Peninsula in areas north of Weipa.

A tropical Cyclone WATCH has been declared for the remainder of Cape York Peninsula between Weipa and Cape Keerweer.


Coastal residents between Cape Melville and Thursday Island are specifically warned that a dangerous storm tide could occur should the cyclone cross the coast. The sea would rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline.


People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

People between Thursday Island and Cape Melville should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property before tonight.

Storm Warning Area
==================
30 NM from the storm's center

Gale Warning Area
==================
60 NM from the storm's center

Forecast Intensity
=================
12 hours = 980 hPa 55 knots
24 hours = 985 hPa 50 knots

Next Immediate Tropical Cyclone Advice is at 4:00 am UTC
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: For immediate broadcast. Transmitters servicing the area from Thursday
Island to Cape Melville ARE REQUESTED TO USE the Standard Emergency Warning
Signal.

TOP PRIORITY - FLASH
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE 11
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 10:21am on Monday the 19th of November 2007

A FLASH Tropical Cyclone WARNING has been declared for the coastal and island
communities between Thursday Island to Cape Melville, and extending over the
remainder of Cape York Peninsula in areas north of Weipa. A tropical Cyclone
WATCH has been declared for the remainder of Cape York Peninsula between Weipa
and Cape Keerweer.

At 9:00 am EST Tropical Cyclone Guba Category 1 with central pressure 987
hectopascals was relocated near latitude 12.2 south and longitude 144.7 east
which is 155 kilometres east northeast of Lockhart River.

Tropical Cyclone Guba has intensified in the last few hours and is expected to
continue to intensify and may make landfall on the east coast of Cape York
Peninsula as early as tonight.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Guba Category 1, for 9:00 am EST
Central Pressure : 987 hectopascals
Location of Centre : within 50 kilometres of
: latitude 12.2 degrees south
: longitude 144.7 degrees east
: which is 155 kilometres east northeast of Lockhart River
Recent Movement : west northwest at 12 kilometres per hour
Maximum wind gusts : 120 kilometres per hour and INTENSIFYING

Coastal residents between Cape Melville and Thursday Island are specifically
warned that a dangerous storm tide could occur should the cyclone cross the
coast. The sea would rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide,
with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline.
People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take
measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow
instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the
authorities.

People between Thursday Island and Cape Melville should immediately commence or
continue preparations, especially securing boats and property before tonight.

Cheers AussieStorm
Evenin folks

(WU not posting this link)....
Queensland Weather Observation Stations

http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/qld/qld-observations-map.shtml
Are you still around Baja?
Heyyyyyyy Zoo!! Evenin!
How are you? Been a while.
Im good! It's my FRIDAY *laffs* I was thinking the same thing, zoo. Nice to SEE you. How's you?
Dying for some fish at US$30 per 60kilograms dried, or less than 5 UScents per pound of cleaned fish before drying.
A trivial amount of money to FirstWorlders, yet an amount large enough for a relatively well-off Bangladeshi to risk death rather than watch his hard labor be turned into rapidly growing debt.

The Concert for Bangladesh...
...as in nearly all famines, there was plenty of food warehoused within the country (or being exported) after the floods destroyed the crops. The real problem was a man-made credit crunch.
Farmers couldn't pay back loans they'd taken out for fertilizer/equipment/etc, and couldn't obtain new loans because of the interest*rate on what they already owed. Farm laborers couldn't harvest a destroyed crop, and no employment meant both no money and no loans.
So farmers starved, unless they sold their land for pennies on the dollar. And laborers just starved. As did many workers in businesses which depended upon having farmers and laborers as customers.
Which brings us back to today...
...the fields which were flooded by Sidr's storm surge are gonna take considerably longer to come back into productivity. It takes time for the rains to wash ocean salt outta the soil. And until the soils are fertile again, there are going to be a LOT of unemployed and underemployed Bangladeshis.

It's a big step going from having enough to survive plus just that tiny bit extra to have hope that things are slowly getting better, and having lost everything including any foreseeable employment.
Just something to think about over the Thanksgiving holiday while contemplating Christmas/etc shopping and tax-deductable year-end charitable donations.

*Theoretically, Muslims aren't allowed to charge interest on loans. Practically, it just means usurers get creative ala "I get your fish at 2/3rds of market value until the loan is paid off" as shown in the news article.
Kinda like FirstWorld banks piling on absurd fees to get around laws concerning truth-in-advertising and interest rates.
Good - still on a mission to get the holidays together early. Did you see the pics on Gamma's site on the drought - she did a great job catching the beginning of the season & the end.
Spectre - that's a very dismal report. As I said earlier, its sad that those with the fewest resources are hit the hardest.
No, I didn't. I'll have to go take a look. Thanksgiving is a real busy time for me at work, so I havent been able to get in here as much. It IS nice to see you here (Seems like it's been quiet in here)
thanks - nice to see you "wink", I bet you are crazy at work. What kind of bakery do you work in?
Have you seen Tigger at all today, zoo? Her son, Andy, was supposed to have his MRI today
Last one for the day...have a good night all

I haven't seen Tigger since Weds - I was just wondering how the boys were doing. I have her email address - have to send her a note.

BTW - did your son head out to Cali?
Bakery in a grocery store, zoo. Busy, busy!!
Night 456 - thanks for all the graphics - they are always very interesting.
that's neat - I would love to know how you guys do all those things!
Ok. I just sent her a message here. Hope things went well.

Yah, he left on the 12th. So, there's no 'chirping in the nest' now. Sure is quiet :O lol (but thank you for asking) *smiles*
I'm off - have some sewing to do. Have a good week, hope to catch you one evening.
Thanks for all the pics, 456. Your pics ROCK!!
Take care zoo.....I'm sure I'll catch ya around....nite
Scientists from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate carrying out global warming research have recently predicted that average global temperatures could increase between 1.4 and 5.8 °C by the year 2100. Changes resulting from global warming may include rising sea levels due to the melting of the polar ice caps, as well as an increase in occurrence and severity of storms and other severe weather events.
A weak, but slow-moving storm will continue to blanket portions of the Northeast with snow tonight. Meanwhile, a strong storm will develop in the Plains toward the middle of the week, potentially creating some major troubles on the busiest travel day of the year.
Tropical Atlantic Still Quite CalmA tropical wave is tracking west across Central America and is causing showers and thunderstorms across that area. Another tropical wave along 71 west, south of 18 north is tracking west at 15-20 knots and is passing south of Hispaniola. It the west, causing too much shear for any further organization. This wave should reach Central America by Tuesday and bring another round of thunderstorms to Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica.
October Global Surface Temperature Sixth Warmest on RecordOctober 2007 was the sixth warmest on record globally for surface temperature, according to a news release from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

The newly updated European model monthly forecast just updated its forecast for North America yesterday through the winter and into the spring. The previous forecast issued on October 15th was signaling for a cold and snowy winter in western Canada while much of the eastern U.S. and southeastern Canada would be mild compared to normal with a mean storm track from the central plains through the Great Lakes and into southern Quebec. What did the new update show? What it showed was consistency, which is one thing forecasters look for in model trends to give them more confidence in a forecast. The latest update basically supports the older one, and if anything is more agressive with the cold in the west and the milder weather in the east for the bulk of the winter.
Evenin wxhatt
I believe it will be possible for more subtropical storms to form off the southeast coast for what remains of the season, with an unuasual extension past the normal cutoff date ending November. This will be due to the continued warmer than normal SST's which persist off SE Conus. When cold air pools enough in the central Canadian provinces, and the polar jet does dive towards the SE Coast from time to time, it will result in cyclogenisis which could be subtropical in nature.

Evenin Baja ;)
keep eyes on extreme w gom near cen mex also nw carb got some nw ward movin convection too it
Current Atlantic SST's:

Link
Eye, Eye, Cap'n Keeper Of The Gate!

Storm could be a brew'n. Arrrrg...
Evenin keep

*goes to look*
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUBA ADVICE NUMBER TWELVE ISSUED AT 4:00 AM UTC
=====================================
The Tropical Cyclone Guba (CAT 1) located as of 3:00am UTC near 11.9S 144.7E or 175 kilometers northeast of Lockhart River and 300 kilometers east-southeast of Horn Island had 10 min sustained winds of 45 knots with gust up to 60. The cyclone is moving northwest at 5 knots.

TROPICAL CYCLONE Guba, CATEGORY 1, is expected to INTENSIFY and may make landfall on the east coast of Cape York Peninsula as early as tonight.

DESTRUCTIVE winds of up to 75 knots may develop between Thursday Island and Lockhart River this evening.

GALES may develop between Thursday Island and Cape Melville from late this afternoon. GALES may extend further west across Cape York Peninsula on Tuesday.

Coastal residents between Thursday Island and Cape Melville are specifically warned that a dangerous storm tide could occur should the cyclone cross the coast.

The sea would rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline.

People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Flood rains are likely in the vicinity of the cyclone as it approaches the coast.

Central Pressure: 987 hPa

Tropical Cyclone Watch/Warning
==============================
A FLASH Tropical Cyclone WARNING has been declared for the coastal and island communities between Thursday Island to Cape Melville, and extending over the remainder of Cape York Peninsula in areas north of Weipa.

The Cyclone WATCH for coastal and island communities between Lockhart River and Cape Tribulation has been cancelled and replaced with a Warning.

Actually SW jet looks a bit menacing, yet there isn't a good kick from the north. Things are looking generally west to east zonal flow across CONUS. Now if our old friend the Newfoundland wheel were in place, that might be another story.

Link
Weather's slow...Blog's slow...
not much going on, ~Yawn~

Ah, it's good to be king. LOL

Nite All zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Link

You mean, THIS one *smiles*
rtn flow off the gulf might not be what we want will create some good clashing of the air mass considering all the cold air in place north of gulf this may become quite interesting an fast
Cuidad Victoria weather....thunderstorm/light rain
Nice loop of the t'storms flaring up

Link
TROPICAL CYCLONE BONGWE WARNING NUMBER FOUR ISSUED AT 6:00 AM UTC - UPGRADED TO MODERATE TROPICAL STORM AND NAMED "BONGWE"
==========================================

The Depression Tropicale located near 9.9S 77.2E or 2600 kms east-northeast from La Reunion's coast strengthened into a tempête tropicale moderée and was named "Bongwe" by sub-RSMC Mauritius. Moderate tropical storm Bongwe had 10 min sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts up to 50 knots moving south at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Warning Area
=================
30 NM from the system's center

Additional Information
=========================
Forecast Position and intensity

12 HRS - 10.9S 77.1E 40 kts
24 HRS - 11.9S 76.0E 45 kts

Gale winds are generated by this system so it has been named "Bongwe" at 6:00am by Mauritius Meteorological Service. Center position has been relocated eastward with last satellite data. Guidance has been adjusted equatorward but philosophy remains unchanged.

Bongwe should track globally southward then it is expected to recurve southwestward at Day 1 then west-southwest at Day 2.

This system remains in an environment quite favorable for intensification.

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUBA ADVICE NUMBER THIRTEEN ISSUED AT 6:00 AM UTC
===================================

At 5:00 am UTC, The Tropical Cyclone Guba (CAT 1) located near 11.8S 144.7E or 210 kilometers east-southeast of Orford Ness and 295 kilometers east-southeast of Horn Island had 10 min sustained winds of 40 knots with gust up to 55. The cyclone is moving north-northwest at 6 knots.

Central Pressure: 990 hPa

TROPICAL CYCLONE Guba, CATEGORY 1, with gusts up to 65 knots is expected to INTENSIFY and may make landfall on the east coast of Cape York Peninsula tomorrow.

DAMAGING winds of up to 65 knots may develop on the Torres Strait Islands and the coast between Thursday Island and Lockhart River from early tomorrow morning.

GALES may develop on the Torres Strait Islands and the coast between Thursday Island and Coen overnight. GALES may extend further west across Cape York Peninsula on Tuesday.

As the cyclone crosses/approaches the coast, a storm tide is expected between Lockhart River and Thursday Island. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

Flood rains are likely in the vicinity of the cyclone as it approaches the coast.

Tropical Cyclone Watch/Warning
==============================
A Tropical Cyclone WARNING is current for the Torres Strait Islands and coastal areas between Thursday Island and Coen.

The Tropical Cyclone WARNING also extends inland to areas north of Weipa.

A Tropical Cyclone WATCH remains current for the remainder of Cape York Peninsula north of Cape Keerweer and Coen.

The Tropical Cyclone WARNING for coastal areas between Coen and Cape Melville has been CANCELLED.


Forecast Intensity
=================
12 hours = 987 hPa 45 knots
24 hours = 987 hPa 45 knots
Morning Folks.

Sorry i had not updated my blog over the weekend about the winter storm today :( I was under the weather (pardon the pun) and basically stood in bed. I feel alot better now. For those that got snow I hope your shoveling wasnt too bad :/

as of 5am I had 2.75 inches and still falling when I left my home. Expect to see 3 to 4 inches by the time I get back home.
Good Morning All

Cloud Streets over the Sea of Japan



I see we have a slow blog today. Maybe it will pick up as folks wake up :)
anyone around?
Good morning!

Just wanted to drop in to inform the death toll now in Bangaldesh is up to 15,000...What a sad situation in that area.I posted a link in my blog were you can view the lastest news.

Adrian's Weather
Adrian the article title is misleading here is the part that is important

While the official death toll remains low, Save the Children last night said that it feared that 15,000 people could have died while the Red Crescent estimated around 10,000.

I know the 3000 is low (and I hope it stays that way) but may rise I think these reports of estimated deaths is misleading folks because most dont know right now. More of a headline grabber to sell news more so then actaul figures
update LINK
H10
180. Bonedog 8:36 AM EST on November 19, 2007
Adrian the article title is misleading here is the part that is important

While the official death toll remains low, Save the Children last night said that it feared that 15,000 people could have died while the Red Crescent estimated around 10,000

Yes it is but on the other hand the situation is really horrible and it really does not matter if its 5000,7000 or 10,000.

Here's one of a few sites that are takeing donations.
weather.gov
National Weather Service

Marine Interpretation Message
ATLC WATERS...

CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CHANGE ACROSS NE
WATERS AS LOW PRES TAKES SHAPE JUST N OF BERMUDA. SOME MODELS
SUGGEST WINDS INCREASING TO GALE FORCE JUST E OF THE AREA ON WED
ON THE S SIDE OF THE MODELED LARGE LOW.

Holiday swell for most of the east coast. Cold water just about everywhere.
I remember last week on this Blog we were all talking about the potential of a lot of deaths in Bangladesh because of the low elevation and densely populated areas. We were all hoping that the death toll would remain low because of the evacuation and centers that have been built over the last few years. But it doesn’t appear that those that survived are having it any better. Primarily because of a lack of drinking water. The link below is from a Bangladesh Newspaper. Lack of drinking water
Good Evening!
Thank you for the horrible and surreal update!
..Bangladesh,so many People...



Certified Gold: 1/4/72

The Concert for BanglaDesh is rock reaching for its manhood. Under the leadership of George Harrison, a group of rock musicians recognized, in a deliberate, self-conscious, and professional way, that they have responsibilities -- and went about dealing with them seriously:

" My friend came to me,
With sadness in his eyes,
He told me that he wanted help,
Before his country died,
Although I couldn't feel the pain,
I knew I'd have to try,
Now I'm asking all of you,
To help us save some lies"..

One can ease the suffering with this link. Link
it is a shame that even 1 person had to die let alone 3000. My prayers go out to all those affected by this horrible trajedy.
NEW ANTI-CYCLONE TECHNOLOGY EXIST !

The new anti-hurricane technology is development. PCT/SK2006/000003 - A METHOD OF AND A DEVICE FOR THE REDUCTION OF TROPICAL CYCLONES DESTRUCTIVE FORCE
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www.ahtfund.org