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Bahamas tropical disturbance

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:00 PM GMT on June 22, 2006

The area of disturbed weather between the Bahama Islands and Bermuda associated with a non-tropical low pressure system remains disorganized today. The amount of deep thunderstorm activity has actually decreased since yesterday afternoon, despite a drop in wind shear from 15 - 25 knots to 10 - 20 knots. There is some hint of a circulation at mid levels of the atmosphere in this morning's visible satellite imagery, but no obvious circulation at the surface. This disturbance still has the potential to develop into a tropical depression later this week. There is still a lot of wind shear for the disturbance to overcome, and none of the global computer models are developing it into a tropical depression. Any system that might develop would likely be steered into northern Florida, Georgia, or South Carolina by early next week.


Figure 1. An area of disturbed weather between the Bahamas and Bermuda bears watching the next few days.

Elsewhere in the tropics, there is no activity worth reporting. Some of the computer models are forecasting that a tropical storm could form north of Puerto Rico early next week, but this is unlikely, since wind shear is expected to remain very high over almost all of the tropical Atlantic Ocean for the next week.

I'll be back with an update on Friday, unless there is a dramatic change. I'll take a look on Friday at the large scale weather patterns over the Atlantic the past few weeks, which have led to a significant reduction in sea surface temperatures compared to last year at this time--good news for those of you in Hurricane Alley!

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

ProgressivePulse..yep..but maybe overnight...hard to say right now but there is fuel for the fore right now. We'll see by 11am.
fire
Cut off is the main feature, it may still bomb this morning, it is flaring around the circulation.
Well, we have seen so many unpredictable systems like this that it is becoming the norm now. Too bad conventional mets can't get a grip either.
By 11am we will know...or Saturday at 11am! Just how this goes today! There are larger powers at work here than we can compute.
You guys think this thing really going to develop????
Instead of you sheep that follow all the politicians into the global warming pit...maybe you should actually study the climatic history of Earth. You would learn on your own...that variances like we may or may not be experiencing are the norm in the history of our planet!
Think for yourself...don't listen to politicos like Al Gore!
Fshhead, never said that, just stating the main feature is it is now cutoff and will move now. Convection is starting around the center, have to see if it holds up.
Politicians all have an agenda...mostly it is to enslave you into believeing that they speak the truth!
That would be incorrect. They lie to you and you want to support them? What have they ever done to improve your personal life? Except steal your money in the guise of taxes and war support! Wars that you are too young to understand how they came to be!
Grow up and gas the global warming stuff! You're one of the Sheeples if you go that route.
Let's talk about storms...that's another subject...because the politicians are in there also!
Ahhhhhh, I almost fell of my chair when I read that one. Hmmm guess I would be the sheep huh??
Cute But, 1st of all.. I hate Al Gore, seeing how you knew my name as soon as I posted here I assume you might have read my blog. If so you would see my dislike of him LOL.
As far as the warming...I have learned on my own. There is pretty much indisputed fact the Earth is warming. Just a few skeptic researchers these days. I am sure soon they too will believe.
Pulse no prob'. I was just asking....
Wars that you are too young to understand how they came to be!
Grow up and gas the global warming stuff! You're one of the Sheeples if you go that route

LOL, thats a funny one
Fshhead...This Earth of ours may be warming...maybe it is because of mankind's footprint...maybe not! Maybe it is just a natural event every millenium! Maybe you just can't do anything about it.
Maybe you should just devote your time to helping and supporting hurricane victims if you feel led to be so benevolent! Al Gore or the unemployed scientists that are promoting Global Warming won't treat you half as good!
They're just in it for the money!
But Martha....there's just no diurnal convection developing!
Link
randrewl, the funny part is that when I 1st posted, I was asking about the storm. LOL you were the one who recognized me & started with the global warming........
Fshhead...Cool. Just saw your global warming blog thing and went Wacko! I hate the global warming brigades. Maybe re-think your position after much research...ok?
BTW... since I do live in hurricane alley(Fla.)
I help hurricane victims every year. It is called being a good neighbor. Alot of people here band together & help one another.
Randrewl, sorry my blog made you go wacko LOL
I have researched plenty...... MY mind is made up. Don't need bonehead Gore to tell me.
Fshhead...I can't possibly think of a better way to please the Almighty than assisting your fellow man in their time of need. Keep up the good works!
BTW... nice to meet you LOL
Yah, I'll be around...mostly while a potential storm is fixin to slide up my street...just like this one.
Link
Posted By: Randrewl at 7:39 AM GMT on June 23, 2006.
Fshhead...Cool. Just saw your global warming blog thing and went Wacko! I hate the global warming brigades. Maybe re-think your position after much research...ok?

I gotta say this. Alot of good points on both sides of the issue in my blog. Maybe you should read through some of it...
Fshhead...I have been known to be way too hasty. I will browse your information. But there is no global warming...caused by man!
Yea that thing is a little to close for comfort here too.
Randrewl do me a favor.... Read through the older entries. They are much better with the "facts"....
Some convection firing as we're getting to the diurnal max. Go blob go!
Colby.... what are your thoughts on this storm??
Fshhead...I will do that. Just take my point into consideration as well. that is all I can ask.
Far as our bit of circulation is concerned...I want all it can deliver here. We are so below the mark for rainfall it is not worth mentioning. I see that Cyclone is here...so I will maybe be going....or not!
Our rain pattern already started here. Get afternoon thunderstorms. Grass & stuff much greener now!!!!
There is no storm....Ask the NHC...just some showers east of Eluthera
LOL k. thoughts on the showers out in the ocean....
Man..... I just hope we dont get any monster storms come late summer, early fall
Well, We probably will good buddy! We still have many months to even get to that point. I just have to laugh. I'm a native Floridian since 1952 when I was born here. So, I would be the guy on the block that is prepared....and if the roof actually stays on...I will be burning steaks and have the whole house lit up!
And feeding all the unprepared souls!
Yea native here also ('64).... Guess all that camping in earlier years pays off LOL
Finally getting some shutters.... Figured I have gambled too many times. Went through Andrew without. That was SCARY!!!!
Check this thunderstorm east of the Bahamas:
Link
Hey Randrewl let me ask you something? Have you ever used these ahhh rechargable battery pcaks?? I started using them last few years. I really like them but, cannot find a real good one. Just ordered one that has lifetime warranty so, now if it dies... back it goes!!!
Fshhead....Welp...if you can do that then I believe you can survive anything like global warming. Hope your life was not severely scarred by Andrew.
I personally had no dealings with that bastard...just on the tele!
Fshhead...What exactly are you powering with the packs?
Andrew was a nasty,nasty storm. Yea it was scarred by all the people including my bro' who lost everything. I live right around the corner from coutry walk, that is the place that got all the media hype. As bad as it was we were really really lucky.
Wow, I power lantern, small t.v., cell phone etc..... they are really good idea. Hold on I will get the link to the one i bought.
http://www.sportsmansguide.com/cb/cb.asp?a=231422

They are rechargable & run anything that runs off cigarette lighter plug.
I was living in Port St. Lucie during Andrew. Still...lots of water and wind damage but I was so completely destroyed personally by the destruction I saw. Katrina was nothing compared to Andrew. It is still a horrible thing to mention and I'm sorry...let's not dwell on that.
I have big fourescent lantern that uses lantern batteries. I just plug it into the power pack. Saves on the battery costs BIGTIME!!
yea agreed kinda bad subject with me too...
You need to paste a proper link...I can't get there from here man!
LOL just open browser copy paste go!!!
there lol
550. haydn

This loop of the blob looks promising.
Rechargables are a major problem. There are some systems that are great and then....I personally don't use many. I have my rechargeable headphones I use all the time..like now...while listening to the 60's music. But I have never had to replace them!
Can't help you here.
Ahhhh. '60's music.....
Late '60's early '70's......
When music was real.....
554. haydn
Why do you say real?
lol all the music now is faked or repoduced old tunes
oops reproduced
557. haydn
yea lol..I play the piano. When you get a BA in an area, you look for good stuff to listen to. The musicians then didn't have American Idol. Also, when recording they didn't have a DAW to do retakes and mix that into a recording. Cd's are great sounding, but the concerts show lousy playing.
Jesus....you realize I have no knowlege of anything about American Idol except for the old Lakers cheerleader who is a judge? I saw her once live...shortly after that I quit attending live concerts. So, yeah the 60's was a slice of real music. Got it cranking right now.
one band i really really regret not seeing is my fav. Zeppelin. Saw Plant when he 1st toured but he played no Zep......
Paula Abdul! There...I remembered. Who cares?
There is so much more to life than "network TV"! It is really amazing. Try it sometime...y'all might learn something on your own. Instead of repeating what the politicians want you to!
561. haydn
I watched the first two years of Idol and then quit. ...boring....Grateful Dead fans out there?

Anyone looked at the blob lately?
Never went to see Zepp....they were really lousy in concert sO I never wasted a ticket. I walked out on the Rolling Stones once in W. Palm Beach...but you had to be there to understand!
The Dead was one band out of that era that I am not too crazy about. But man do they have a following
That blob is starting to take on distinct characteristics of Jerry Garcia!!!!!
Look!!!
Link
Yea that I know about Zeppelin BUT, wow song remains the same..... What a performance. Gotta be one the greatest concerts ever IMO
LOL & my dumb*** looked.....
Got ya!
Well Randrewl nice to meet you, gotta get going to bed.
569. haydn
The Dead would play a song more than the five minute polished song thing. They improvised in concerts on their songs. That takes musicianship. Sometimes in a song everyone hit the zone. ....real mystical and ethereal....
I did get to see Jimmy Page play in some late night bar in Key West one night....that was very cool!
haydn...wasn't anything special about the Dead. They were just there at the beginning!
572. haydn
Did he improv on his stuff?
573. haydn
true....Do you like Dave Matthews Band?
Yah...Page improved....but mostly Devil worship stuff you never heard of! You realize he is a Satanist!
dave Matthews Band...very cool. Just I enjoy Tom Petty or the Allman Brothers more.
576. haydn
interesting...I don't worship Satan. His power is real, but there is one greater. ... Our blob is growing.
Good morning Doc's blog...just had to pop in and say, Dave Matthews is fantastic (IMHO)..

It's Friday, and a great way to start Friday, with a litle Dave Matthews.
578. haydn
I had a friend go to the Charlotte, NC concert of Dave Matthews. ...best concert he'd been to in a while
579. IKE
5:30 AM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook...For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
The broad and disorganized area of low pressure continues to be
centered a couple of hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas.
Upper-level winds could become a little more favorable for slow
development during the next day or so...as the system drifts toward
the west-northwest.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Saturday.
aquak9 ...Nice to see you this early...I'm just listening to some old 1966 stuff! So tell me about our area of showers east of Eluethera.
581. haydn
Goodmorning.....woke up at 4:15... couldn't sleep... I'm here for a while.
haydn...so welcome!
Check out my new neighbor:
Link
584. haydn
I like classical stuff and movie soundtracks. Have the Narnia soundtrack in at the moment.

haydn..So tell me about this area of showers east of the Bahamas that the NHC keeps shrugging.
586. haydn
Will your new neighbor be kind enough to give us some rain? Alberto was weak, but I received some needed rain.
haydn...Wow, don't I hope so! On the east coast of FL we missed all of Alberto and we are breathing dust now.
588. haydn
Our blob is entering an area of decreasing shear. link

There are no troughs forecast to come in that area and sweep it out. I looked in the 6 day forecast and found two fronts that are supposed to become stationary. ....more stuff in a minute
589. haydn
This link is from Colorado.

Look below the operational satellites link to find the link to shear forecasts. It's called tropical storms.
590. IKE
This mornings Tallahassee extended weather discussion...Long term...
extended forecast still dependent on final evolution of Bahamas
system. Generally good model agreement regarding Continental U.S. Pattern
setup to begin long term with upper level ridge over the west half
of Continental U.S. ... deep trough over the northeast U.S. And a surface
ridge northeast of Florida. Long wave trough rotates southeastward with axis
over MS valley Sunday night and then remains over the eastern Continental U.S.
Through the period. Also...presence of a weak and meandering frontal
boundary across the southeast corner of the U.S. This combo should
provide an unsettled weather pattern with increasing prospects or
showers and thunderstorms Monday into Tuesday b4 the boundary washes
out. Amount of convection will also be influenced by future track
and intensity of the upper low and surface wave mentioned above
especially if the low crosses the peninsula and emerges into the
eastern Gulf and thus influenced by upper trough. By late
Tuesday...shortwave energy moves eastward. Surface trough kicked northeastward and
in wake of shortwaves...trough begins to flatten out. Scattered probability of precipitation into
Tuesday then at or below widely scattered Tuesday evening into Thursday.


Looks like it crosses Florida and heads NW up into the eastern Gulf states and heads N toward the Carolina's/Tennessee.
591. haydn
Do you have a list of favorites that give anlysis of systems? I have a folder with a few links that I use.
592. haydn
I'm in SC. That would be nice. Fl gets soaked before I do.
These showers east of the Bahamas are supposed to bring me rain first on the east coast and then cross the panhandle. Any deviation from that path is not approved!
594. haydn
blob....."Yes sir."
THIS LOW NOW SEEMS TO BE CUT OFF NEAR
25N75W JUST OFF ELEUTHERA ISLAND.

My God! It's been cut-off again! Somebody call the NHC/TPC!
I happen to reside at 27.16N and 80.2W.
Could wsomeone order up some rain? Please!!
596. haydn
Kind of like Alberto. The main part of the convection is at 15N70W. The center is exposed and convection displaced to the east. ....hmmm
I can work with the NOGAPS here!
Link
598. IKE
At 27N, 80W you should be in for a good soaking rain.
Yes, After Alberto I expect the center of circulation is now in my garage where I have a newly installed "turbo" type fan!
I can dream.....and provide some much needed humor................Ya'll!!!!!!!!!!!!
IKE ....I keep hearing that from all the local mets....the NHC...the NWS...etal! Ain't happened yet buddy!
601. haydn
My little while of staying up is done. I'm going to try to get another hour before the sun arises. ...enjoyed the discussion about 60's music....

Adios
Here's a link to my local NWS forecast...which changes about every 4 hours every day all day!
Link
603. IKE
Im up here in the panhandle...Defuniak Springs area...we got a strong thunderstorm here yesterday. You should get rain off of blob/by then TD2/weak TS.
604. IKE
You're gonna get rain....60% chance Saturday thru Sunday night! You should get a couple of inches...fingers crossed.
IKE ...Yah, how did you do with Alberto? Imagine you got at least a shot of precip.
606. IKE
Alberto went east of here by about 120 miles. Got 1 shower the next afternoon. This disturbance may bring us more. It could cross Florida and head up this way bringing rain.
IKE...I remember talking to you just before Alberto! Sorry you did not get the rain you needed. I think this one might get us both a little bit of help. God, I hope!
Is there anything about this loop that is familiar? Xept for that it is supposedly heading in the opposite direction of Alberto?
Link
609. IKE
Let me guess...it has a blowup of thunderstorms later today or tonight...gets classified as a TD...heads toward you...with a chance of becoming a weak TS.

Then ST comes back to tell....uh...just forget it...he can be funny.......
530 AM EDT FRI JUN 23 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE BROAD AND DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE
CENTERED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI

I am extremely dissapointed Avila!
611. IKE
Pressures have fallen off at those buoys east of Florida and have come down in the Bahamas a couple of more millibars...around 29.90.

Your rain is on the way!
612. IKE
Did you think it would rapidly intensify? Looks like it's heading toward a TD slowly.
Bad news Avila. This is not a couple hundred miles off the Bahamas. It is knocking here right now. The CofC is grinding the middle Bahamas right now! What sat is he viewing? Or maybe he is just cuffed like the rest of them. I respect forecaster Avila...just dissapointed when this crap hits the net!
No rapid intensity....my pressure has dropped...I was at 1015mb earlier....now 1013.
I just want the rain!
615. IKE
That floater loop....loads of rain with this..looks like some thunderstorms are trying to pop around the center.
It's all another Alberto....maybe not by 11am...but later today...we have an area of low pressure!
617. IKE
Probably closer to 130-160 miles from Bahamas. Their weather will go down hill today...with rain and thunderstorms...then you're next.
618. IKE
You're probably right...a TD is a definite possibility...a TS??? it could, I guess?!?!?!
619. IKE
Looks like it's moving west and making a beeline for east/central Florida....satellite presentation looks a little better.
I know....and then you read forecaster Avila's synopsis. WTF?
It's getting there. Winds are roughly 20kt with the surface low slowly closing off. I'd say T.D. 2 within the next 24 hours and Beryl within the next 48.
622. IKE
The conservative approach at the NHC....trying not to scare anyone. To me...slow development means....could become a TD...then a chance of TS.

That shear map on WU shows favorable all the way thru the weekend.


Rain and possibly wind for Florida this weekend....
ForecasterColby...Not even a chance for a named storm here. Sorry. Maybe you could rain on my parade here on the east coast ...we need the precip!
IKE...Yah, it's great when there is a Zeta a couple thousand miles from land. The NHC has no problem jumping on any hof out there!
Just it can't be close to landfall in the US.....OMG....WTF!
625. IKE
May not take 24 hours to be classified...as a TD.
The PTB might not approve of another storm striking the continental US that they already created anyway! So, I say go Forecaster Avila!!!!!
Tell the freakin truth for once!
627. IKE
Really...they should probably go into a slightly more detailed analysis..but...you can read between the lines. It has some potential..
628. IKE
That name Avila....think he's been there awhile.
629. IKE
I'll be back.......
IKE ...Avila is the best! The NHC needs to listen more to what this person has to say.
Avila was so funny during Zeta! I have some saved files on his prognostications on here somewhere. Absolutely the "Best".
Go Avila! Give us some more....please!
631. MahFL
Nice swirl on the visible now, seems a bit more south than the models suggested, is it still forcast to go to South Carolina ?
the shear maps at CIMSS says almost 0 knots over the system.
Weather456...Link it please.
sure can see that shear affect the north east side of the storm away from the center...
Jacksonville appears to be the bullseye for this one, if it develops.

Very nice LLC evident on the visible, I'd say it's probably closed off now.
by the sat loop (flotter yea they moves it)It does seemed to be moving do west.up date on my prediction td by tonight at 11:00 1st landfall on e. coast of florida south central as 50kt ts. then exhit into gulf around Tampa. reorg. into max ts 60kt or min 65kt hurricane turm nw then nnw and n. new makes landfall as min hurricane or max ts. near destin.
ForecasterColby...No, the NHC says it is a cut-off low now. Ya gotta repeat the mantra of the NHC! Say it!
pcolabob...I want to see your map! This area of showers east of the Bahamas will not possibly impact Florida directly until sometime late Sunday at best. Unless I can get Forecaster Avila from the NHC to give us a better forecast!
Which will not happen!
WOWSA......

there it is just north of eleuthera in the bahammas.....

doesnt appear to be moving much, but i agree things circulation appears closed or close to it.....
640. IKE
Looks like it's definitely heading w or wnw toward extreme northern Bahamas......
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/winds-shr.html

link to wind shear maps.
Unofruntately, somebody please tell me what this word could possibly mean? One of those funny bits involved with an area of showers off the Bahamas!
There is a low level swirl about 100 miles or so west of the convection. That swirl is in a blob of moist air diving south into the dry air west of the ULL. Upper level divergence seems to be creating the convection east of the ULL center. The way the convection fires in the shape of a V narrowing down to the point where the most recent convection started reminds me of Kansas.


Randreal

I was not clear the way I wrote my last post.I ment to say td by tonight.lanfall on e coast of fl. (I did not give a time for this), but if I had to Guess I would say late Sunday morn.
Something else I would like to mention is the 24 hr pressure falls in the bahamas are 2-3 mb. You have to look at the 24 hour falls because there are daily max and min.
bappit ...We're just not in Kansas anymore here Toto!
647. IKE
Winds are out of the north a lot of the Bahamas reporting stations....their west/southwest of the low...soon-to-be TD1???
I just live 45 miles west of the Bahamas. My pressure has dropped only 2 MB in the past 6 hours or so. This thing has to pass through me to go anywhere. I'll let you know the pressure.
Randrewl

Sorry I got your handle wrong last post.
Re: my map I am not very good at Posting maps,but if you go to the TPC site and look at the 24, 48, 72 tafb forcast postions you can see they pos. the low in about the same place I am
650. IKE
Looks more impressive each new frame on the loop of the visible. I think it's well on it's way to TD2...should have said TD2 in my earlier post...CAN'T EDIT ON HERE! Dr. M...please let us??????
91L Invest is up!
The CMC and GFS also seem to indicate a storm forming out in the Central Atlantic, roughly north of the Leeward Islands between 20N and 30N.
653. IKE
Tropical weather discussion...8:05 AM EDT...a western Atlantic surface trough is along 72w/73w from 20n to
34n. This trough has been in this part of the western Atlantic
Ocean for the last few days. It is accompanied by a middle to
upper level low center which at one point in time more than a
few days ago was part of a trough. This low now seems to be cut
off near 26n74w about 140 nm east-northeast of Eleuthera island
in the Bahama Islands. Cyclonic flow on the water vapor imagery
covers the Atlantic waters and Florida and the Gulf of Mexico
from 21n to 33n between 70w and 85w. Scattered moderate to
strong showers and thunderstorms are east of the low center from
23n to 27n between 69w and 72w. Isolated to widely scattered
moderate showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere from 26n to 30n
between 68w and 75w. The GFS model shows that this surface
trough will move westward during the next 24 hours to
Florida...and eventually a possible broad surface low pressure
center in Florida.

RAIN!!!!
new here,test post
Beryl is a mineral with a hardness of 8 on Moh's hardness scale...

Don't know if this one will scratch glass though.
Hello airmass. Are you mT?
Hope you gator heads and other dry folks get your rain. Looks rather promising.
Good morning, and welcome, airmass.

Lurker Welcome Wagon hint for the day....

You might want to check in on the WAB directory as well.

Good morning all. Well it looks like the shear is relaxing a little and the dry air starting to get worked out.

Question though...What is the 77.5W 30N circulation? And the 76 26 area. This system is very odd. I do not like the way that most of the models have been splitting it apart and then forming something in the central Atl...

For those that have not seen...Find all of the models, imagery, and marine data and more at StormJunkie.com. Some great WU blogger video also.

SJ
661. IKE
Seems like Alberto did that when it was forming...multiple centers and then it consolidated into one.
All the waves I mentioned yesterday seem to have dwindled over the night so the main area to be watching is the Bahama disturbance. The African wave seems to have diminished in convection, but a circulation seems to be evident.
Stop by my blog and read the future best seller/ We will have to check on this though.
Any thoughts of the convection blowing up to the southeast of the BB?
665. IKE
Looks like it's headin for Florida's east coast...almost all the computer models aim it in that direction too. Whatever it is.
Hello Everybody,
I'm new here..I live in Gainesville,,originally from Lake worth Fl.
The early visible floater shows what appears to 2 small rotations one well east of Daytona the other drifting south just east of the Northern Bahamas.. These weak surface signatures are probably eddies being generated by the mid-level low east of the Bahamas,..The long rang base radar from Melborne possible will detect showers from these features soon..
I will watch for a southerly component in this activity if it appears. Water vapor loop is hinting that that dry air intrusion may be cut off soon.
Bob
I saw the GFS, CMC Models are developing a storm in the Central Atlantic what I don't understand is why would the storm literally plow through the high?? Wouldn't it try to go around it??
Can someone give me a link to the computer models? I had it last season, but I can't find it anymore.

Thanks!!
669. WSI
Vero, the most popular links is the FSU model page, found here.

I also have a ton of model links at weathercore.com. They are in the link directory, and some are also posted on the tropical page.
670. WSI
Most popular links are on the FSU page.

Boy I butchered that one, LOL!
Here is what the local forecasters in Melbourne had to say in last night's AFD:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
440 AM EDT FRI JUN 23 2006

TODAY...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SE U.S. WILL BREAK DOWN TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE UPPER (H5-H25) TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN SPINNING JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS THE LAST FEW DAYS TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD. WATER VAPOR SHOWS VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WRAPPING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THIS FEATURE...WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE EAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES WEST TOWARDS FL. IN ADDITION...A SFC REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF AN OPEN WAVE WILL ALSO MOVE WEST IN TANDEM WITH ITS PARENT UPPER FEATURES AND PRODUCE AN INCREASING NE FLOW THIS AFTN.
[...]
SAT-SUN...
THE T-WAVE JUST N OF THE BAHAMAS WILL RIDE THE ERLY FLOW ON THE SW FLANK OF THE ATLC RIDGE AND SHOULD PUSH FAR ENOUGH W TO BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF CENTRAL FL BY DAYBREAK SAT. MEANWHILE THE FRONTAL TROF OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH STEADILY TOWARD THE ERN SEABOARD THRU THE SAME TIME PD. TOGETHER...THESE TWO LOWS WILL COLLAPSE THE WRN EXTENSION OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE OVER THE GULF STATES.

MEANWHILE...THE JET STREAM OVER THE NRN CONUS WILL SHIFT FROM ITS CURRENT ZONAL PATTERN TO A MERIDIONAL CONFIGURATION AS THE H25 JET MAX S OF THE GULF OF ALASKA PUSHES ITS ENERGY ONSHORE. AS THIS HAPPENS...CHANCES ARE GOOD THAT A JET STREAK WILL DIVE OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS AND SPIN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE H85-H50 SHORT WAVE INTO A CLOSED LOW. INDEED...SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THIS HAPPENING ~12Z SUN. AS A RESULT...THE DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID WEST WILL BE IN A POSITION TO MERGE WITH THE T-WAVE OVER THE SE CONUS BY LATE SUN.

THE PRESENCE OF THE T-WAVE AND ITS SUBSEQUENT MERGER WITH THE FRONTAL TROF WILL MAKE PRECIP LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THERE IS A STRONG POSSIBILITY THAT AS THE WRN PORTION OF THE ATLC RIDGE COLLAPSES...THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCD WITH THE WAVE WILL BE PULLED N TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. FURTHERMORE...THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE INDICATING MARGINAL AMOUNTS OF ORGANIZED MID LVL VORTICITY AND LITTLE UPR LVL DIVERGENCE WITH THE WAVE AS IT MOVES ACROSS S FL. MID LVL OMEGA LIFT LOOKS STRONG BOTH AFTNS...SO WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON SAT AND AREAWIDE ON SUN. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MORE LIGHT TO MODERATE.
[...]
SHORT TERM...KELLY
LONG TERM....BRAGAW
Agreed airmass and welcome aboard.

Welcome Widespread.
Mornign VBN

SJ
Thanks WSI!
Here is the link to the computer model plots.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots.html
Morning Erik

You can also find models and a ton more at StormJunkie.com.

Also got the new SST maps updated in my blog.

Bahama Blob will pass over some warm water no matter where it goes.

SJ
Testing testing...allo?
Swear I lost a post in there somewhere.

I wanted to agree with Bob (airmass) a ways up that the vortex dropping WSW towards Central Florida seems likely to bring in some convergence band showers by late morning today. It shows up nicely on the RAP FL visible loop.

Oftentimes the coastal showers will dissipate as soon as they leave the Gulf stream and hit the cooler near-coastal waters, but I think this will make it through with some showers and a freshening wind.
Im a novice but I just wanted to tell all of you how much I appreciate your insights...I was on a lot last year as I am sure I will be this year. since I live in Central Florida, I like to check in from time to time to see what you guys are saying
Any predictions as to wether or not this blob will become a TD or TS before hitting Central FL? I know some were posted already but that was in the wee hours of the morning so I figured I would see if there are any new thoughts.