WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Bahamas tropical disturbance a threat to the Gulf of Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:04 PM GMT on October 01, 2007

Heavy thunderstorms are firing up over South Florida and the nearby waters, thanks to an upper-level low pressure system interacting with an old front. Long range radar out of Miami shows that this activity is disorganized. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed some rotation in the surface winds over the Central Bahamas, but with wind shear 20-30 knots over the region, no development is likely today. Most of the computer models forecast that wind shear will fall, and a tropical or subtropical depression will form by Wednesday near the Florida Keys, eastern Gulf of Mexico, or western Cuba. There is a strong upper-level low pressure system just southwest of Florida (Figure 1), and water vapor satellite loops show that this low is pulling plenty of dry, continental air from North America southward over the Gulf of Mexico. The upper low is expected to move southwestward. This is a situation very similar to the one that spawned Subtropical Depression Ten in September, off the Gulf Coast of Florida. In that case, the subtropical depression formed right underneath the upper level low, making for a very slow transition phase to a tropical system. It took two days for Subtropical Depression Ten to become Tropical Depression Ten, and the storm ran out of time to intensify into a tropical storm before moving ashore over the Florida Panhandle. This time, the GFS model is supporting formation of a subtropical depression to the northeast of the upper low. This situation would potentially allow a faster conversion of the subtropical storm to a tropical storm. The UKMET and Canadian model predict that a fully tropical storm will form, instead. I think a subtropical storm is more likely.

Any storm that forms is forecast to move west-northwestward across the Gulf of Mexico, pushed by a strong ridge of high pressure expected to build in. An upper-level anticyclone aloft is expected to develop as well, providing an environment favorable for intensification. However, intensification will be slowed by the presence of all the dry air dragged into the Gulf of Mexico by the upper low, and by the transition of the storm from subtropical to tropical. The models project a landfall in Texas or Louisiana on Friday or Saturday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly into this system Tuesday afternoon, if necessary.


Figure 1. This morning's water vapor satellite image. The counter-clockwise flow of air around the upper southwest of Florida is dragging plenty of dry, continental air (brown colors) from North America over the Gulf of Mexico. Heavy thunderstorm activity (blue and orange colors) is over South Florida.

Karen's remains not expected to develop
Karen's remains continue to generate a large area of disturbed weather a few hundred miles east of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands (Figure 1). This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed some rotation still exists near the surface, with winds up to 35 mph. Wind shear is about 20 knots over Karen's remains, and wind shear is expected to remain too high to allow re-development of Karen over the next several days. None of the reliable computer models resurrect Karen.

Melissa
Tropical Storm Melissa is dead, torn up by wind shear.

I'll have an update Tuesday, and post my first half of October outlook for hurricane season.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I see the ngps takes 90L into Texas, the GFS takes it into Louisiana and the HWRF takes it into Mississippi....not much consensus right now
Well I imagine a subtropical system, at first, but over those warm gulf waters it shouldnt take too long for it to become tropical
2003. Bonedog
well I'm off to update my blog. Going to go in depth about the cyclogenisis of Nor'Easters.

Be back in a few....
Ok all, enjoy the weather watching and the new format, I will BBL
Is 90L mostly a rain event as it makes it's way across Florida?

Thanks!
congrats, love new format
2007. MahFL
I don't like the new format !
I'm new to posting here, I've read the blog statements from users for a long time, it's kinda slow here today, so I'd thought I would say HI to all the othe dedicated bloggers who take the weather to heart.
Thank you!
Dr Masters,
Looking foreward to your October forecast
I'm not one of the "super bloggers"..but I'd be glad to say "good morning" back to you...Morning david..
The new blog format looks kinda weird
5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): NNE ( 30 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 6.7 m/s
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 7.2 m/s
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 1007.9 mb
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.8 mb ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 26.8 °C

pressure is still falling
I'm seeing no avatars again, morning all, looks like we might have an interesting day, I'm going back to bed for another round though.
2014. IKE
New format is up.

Are you happy now TAZ?????
Rotating thunderstorms in Palm Bay, Melbourne area in Brevard County Fl. Wind gust in area 50mph moving NW@45mph. Rotation #1 coming onshore in the Malabar area. Rotation #2 Palm Bay-West Melbourne area.
where is everyone talking about 90L
2017. Swigit
Lovely commute weather here in Central FL this morning...

Have a safe day folks. :)
2018. Bonedog
have my new blog up if anyone is interested

Link

Good morning weather lovers, i am ready for a interesting day, working nights right now, so going to bed soon, i will be back on this afternoon hoping to see some exitement, does anyone think i may have a chance??
2020. Bonedog
right here thundercloud :) The disturbance off of Florida is now designated 90L on the Navy Site

Link
2021. Bonedog
still no significant structure to mention

2022. Bonedog
gees the models look like a buckshot pattern on the gulf coast. Seems each one picked a diffrent state to go to LOL

SWEEEEET! this is awesome! thanks admin and people! also, 90l still is very weak. when is it supposed to strengthen and/or develop?
Test
where is the coc of 90?
i see one sw of naples, but thats the ull right?
2027. IKE
It's near 25.0N...80.8W....according to the NCEP fronts on the SSD sites.
thanks ike
2029. Patrap
IR Loop GOM


Link
2030. Bonedog
correct blueranch the coc is placed by the NHC at 25N 79W
2031. IKE
What's this the 6Z GFS has cruising through the GOM in about 6-7 days?

Link

And it's not 90L.
2032. Patrap


NEXRAD Radar
Miami Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI


Link
thanks bonedog,
looks like we could make it to 20 named storms if the GFS happens
A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO 30N75W TO 27N80W TO A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 25N80W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE LOW CENTER TO CUBA JUST WEST OF 80W
AND TO THE HONDURAS COASTAL WATERS NEAR 86W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE 1006 MB LOW CENTER MAY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AFTER 48 HOURS.
Good Morning.
I could not get onto the site last pm. Was this new format being introduced ?? It will take a while to get used to it, and I always thought the previous format was unbeatable. So far, I still do.
Some prospect for heavy weather in the Gulf ? Nothing to see in the Atlantic.
Welcome to some new names.
2037. Patrap
AVN Color IR GOM

Link
It's rainy, windy here in east Central Florida this morning.Link
(Pottery...It's a little distracting but maybe Dr. Masters didn't want to be the only one with a picture...)
2040. IKE
Good Morning.
I could not get onto the site last pm. Was this new format being introduced ??


Yup...started about 8 pm CDST last night when the blogs were shut down due to maintenance. Not sure when they came back up.
2041. Bonedog
your welcome blueranch
Good Morning.
I could not get onto the site last pm. Was this new format being introduced ?? It will take a while to get used to it, and I always thought the previous format was unbeatable. So far, I still do.
Some prospect for heavy weather in the Gulf ? Nothing to see in the Atlantic.
Welcome to some new names.
Looking at IR loop is a LLC trying to form under ther ULL again....
OOOOOOOps. I click refresh, my post is repeated ?? I'll try again. Or wait for advice.......
Real heavy storms passed through here about 4:00 this morning, calmer now, guess 90L on the move
JER
2047. IKE
The ULL in the eastern GOM is almost stationary....I really can't see a whole lot to 90L...maybe the ULL has captured it.
Chicklit, I'll have to add mine then !! Good to see you !

Thanks IKE.

The ignore user button makes sense, considering recent events, but I have never felt the need to ignore anyone in the past. We will see how it improves things.
Wow the new blog is cool..lol
good morning... the new format is really cool! Those spaghetti models look kinda insane....
Wow look at the huge comma in the gulf!!
What comma??? Where??
Morning all and wecome to some new names. Still getting used to new format and look forward to using the Ignore button. LOL
well I guess I meant the Ull and all the clouds comming off of it...lol..it just looked huge that's all
2055. KRL
Holy crapola, just had a humongous lightning strike closeby here in South Palm Beach County. The thunder was instantaneous with it and you could feel the reverberation and pressure wave come through the walls. Cable blew right out. PC's survived. Yipes!

Also, raining like floodcakes right now.

2056. IKE
So much for cooler air coming into the SE US the beginning of next week...this from the New Orleans extended...

"Medium range models have
backed way off of a frontal passage over the weekend.
Any frontal
passage now appears to occur the middle of next week...if
then...as storm track appears to establish from about Nevada to
the Great Lakes."...........
Now all they have to do is put in an option to hide the photos!
The weather here at 11n 61w has been very peculiar this rainy season. The normal pattern with the ITCZ has not set up at all yet. My garden is supposed to be ankle deep in mud now, and it is dry and hard. The showers we have had have been brief, heavy. No long periods of incessant rain.
The current set-up is going to be real bad for the resevoirs and the rivers.
October and November are traditioally very wet, and I certainly hope the thing gets itself in gear.
Otherwise, I will be buying water again come Febuary.
Pottery, which island are you on??
2060. Bonedog
slow blog today again. guess noone is awake yet.
Good Morning....

Looks similar to pre-TD 10

2062. IKE
Short term from Mobile,AL...

"Short term (today through tonight)...an upper ridge extending from
Texas to North Carolina will weaken slightly as an upper low over
the southeast Gulf of Mexico moves northwest at around 10 miles per hour."



Dr. Masters said...."The upper low is expected to move southwestward."


Dr. Steve Lyons on TWC last night said the ULL would move NW and dissipate.
2064. amd
where is the center of 90L. In fact, is there still a center to 90L, or just a broad area of low pressure?
2065. hcubed
"Good Morning.
I could not get onto the site last pm. Was this new format being introduced ??

Yup...started about 8 pm CDST last night when the blogs were shut down due to maintenance. Not sure when they came back up."


Which means, because of the new 12-hour rule, we should see the first trolls around 8AM CST... (new users have a 12 hour delay for first post...)
2066. IKE
Looks like it's now near 24N and 81W.
2067. beell
High out west still pretty strong-but the trof may not make the Gulf Coast. May spin off a coastal low in the Atl next week maybe.

Link
2031. IKE 6:12 AM CDT on October 02, 2007
What's this the 6Z GFS has cruising through the GOM in about 6-7 days?

Link

And it's not 90L.


CrownWx has a big discussion about this potential situation on his site this morning!

Just another cold core system trying to work it's way down to the surface--a very, very, very, slow process--just another rain maker at best--remember a few weeks back--Cantore' down on the beach near Fort Walton Beach FL--tracking what seem to me as a lone thunderstorm coming across the coast (I guess the rains were tropical in nature) but that's the only thing that was tropical--
90 is very broad now, but still has kick. I can tell, as my mini tropical depression continues. More 30mph wind and rain for today.
2071. IKE
CrownWx has a big discussion about this potential situation on his site this morning!

The pattern has completely changed this morning...from yesterday. Yesterday, the models were showing a strong cold front heading through the SE US and now today..no front.

Also, the GFS has latched on to a GOM system by the first of next week....yesterday, there was no hint of that. Darn models! LOL.

Can you link that discussion????
good morning all!
my husband is presently working in the Orlando-Winter Garden area...can someone give me an eye witness view of the weather in that area...thank you....
I can assure you There weren't even THAT many rains that were tropical in nature for TD10..lol
Ike...Let me try to do the link.
ANd what was that?..Jim CAntore was here and I didn't even know it?..lol
StormCh--you are probably correct another cold core trying to warm up...
Link
There we go, Ike
2079. beell
Part of a repost:
Posted By: beell at 8:52 PM GMT on September 30, 2007.
Deep high pressure over MX, NM, TX may shunt the first CONUS trof to the N.
wow really nice look to the blogs!
I like them too Hurricane23..I'm sure Taz will be very happy!!
Question!How do you set the blog to 50 comments?
Good Morning Everyone! Another beautiful (*insert sarcasm here*) day in S. Florida. When is this mess supposed to be gone? Does anyone have any idea? TIA =)
top left corner of blog...should have 50..100..200 comments
2085. Bonedog
not much from this mornings QS pass



I do like the new image feature that self sizes, nice!
2086. beell
So...do avatars slow down the blog?
2087. IKE
I can assure you There weren't even THAT many rains that were tropical in nature for TD10..lol

Agree...TD10 was a non-event.
Iam guessing 50 is good to have at right?
For sure Ike
2090. IKE
There we go, Ike

Thanks, but it wouldn't load bellestarr.
Good Morning..Guess I need to take a picture and post it?............The SE Gulf system looks interesing this morning; I can't discern the low between FL and Bahamas (which is what the models from yesterday depicted as invest 90) but there seems to be a low off the NW tip of Cuba...If this is where the "merge" occured overnight, then the pending system which may form does appear like it would be on track for the Western Gulf if it continued west....A rain event/weak tropical storm for Texas maybe?
2092. Bonedog
yes hurricane set it to 50 also set the filter to average. Makes blogging so much easier
2093. will40
last night 50 was streatching the blog we had to use 100
All I can say is it's raining like crazy here in Melbourne. I think our draught was officially over several weeks ago so it can stop raining any time now ...
2096. Bonedog
last night 50 was streatching the blog we had to use 100

huh? 50 comments stretched the blog?
Morning folks. I'm seeing on our radar here (PCB, FL) that some of the showers from this low are making it up to the Big Bend area AND that winds are going up to 20-30 NE...

Question: Is the ULL moving a little more to the NNW today?
Couple questions....

How can i upload an avatar?And also how can i upload images.Thanks Adrian
that is true JP..we were expecting more considering what it did to the pennisula!
2101. IKE
I don't see a 1006mb low where it's shown on this GOM visible loop...

Link
last night 50 was streatching the blog we had to use 100

yeah but i think they fixed it.
I don't know why it did that, Ike...I'm pretty sure i did it the right way. Here's the address for copy/paste...
http://http//www.crownweather.com/tropdisc.html
Good morning Adrian..nice to see you this morning.

Both thru Member settings/Upload Photos

Uploading pic...make sure and check "use for bio" box for the AV

For Photos: Click "upload" fill in the info, then click browse and go to the folder the pic you want is in..click the photo's icon...click "open"...then "upload"
2106. Bonedog
hurricane23 go to the Your Blog link, click that, right hand side Your Photos, click, upper right Upload, click, follow the screen.

Then you can click your avatar on this page and use the browse key to get the photo you uploaded
2098. hurricane23 12:25 PM GMT on October 02, 2007 Hide this comment.
Couple questions....

How can i upload an avatar?And also how can i upload images.Thanks Adrian
Click on the Alferd Hitchcock avatar by your name, you can upload an avatar but we wand a PICTURE of you. LOL Just kidding but is nice to "see" everyone. Click use for primary bio portrait @ the bottom right before submit. To upload other photos go to photos up @ the top left of this page and click.
I thought you had like been on here forever and were admin or something?
hey off topic..but could someone give me a link or info on how to group my wunderphotos better....maybe send me and email so not to disrupt the blog? thanks..Jen
Link

Ike Maybe thats better?
2090. IKE 7:22 AM CDT on October 02, 2007
There we go, Ike

Thanks, but it wouldn't load bellestarr.

Okay, I redid it and did it right this time!
Possible New Tropical Cyclone Development Late This Week into Early Next Week:
I just about fell out of my chair this morning when I saw the GFS model's forecast of a tropical cyclone developing in the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday. So, I took a look at some of the other computer forecast models and they agree in one way or another that there may be some sort of true tropical cyclone development somewhere from the northwest Caribbean northeastward to the Bahamas this weekend. This potential development stems from a couple of areas. One is some deep convection east of the Bahamas, another is an area of convection in the central Caribbean southeast of Jamaica and yet another is the energy from the remanants of Karen now located to the east of the Leeward Islands. Somehow it seems that all three areas could combine in some way to form some sort of tropical storm this weekend.
Does anyone else have problems with the avatars disappearing or is that another "benefit" of having hughes satellite?

Now aubiesgirl is the only one with a picture but when I come back to the page about the 3rd time almost all the pics will be here, has happened like 4 times?
I have yet to record a TS force gust, but I've come so close as we've had some 37 and 38mph gusts. Today is the day, though. I can tell.
hello all
2112. groundman 12:32 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
Does anyone else have problems with the avatars disappearing or is that another "benefit" of having hughes satellite?

Now aubiesgirl is the only one with a picture but when I come back to the page about the 3rd time almost all the pics will be here, has happened like 4 times?

lol
Morning TAZ!!
2117. Bonedog
If anyone would like I update my blog today to discuss cyclogenisis of nor'easters

Link

any comments, thoughts, discusions is appreciated
2118. IKE
Link

Ike Maybe thats better?


It worked...thanx!
Added avatar....Thanks.
2122. Bonedog
I want some weather up by me. Sick and tired of nice sunny days.
jp, where are you? Sounds pretty bad there.
Morning Taz
good morninig :)

Dead air at the cape (no movement at treetop level)

drizzly rain with heavy coud cover.

quite different from last night. :)
2126. Bonedog
morning Taz your new blog format is up LOL
ok not so tired of the mild sunny days..but we really could use some of that rain!!!
Morning Taz and all, looks like the season may get rather interesting huh??
Ok 23 is a hurricane, and JP is a cloud! Guys we have to do better then that!!..LOL
2124. BajaALemt 5:37 AM PDT on October 02, 2007
Morning Taz


Good Morning BajaALemt
2128. groundman 5:38 AM PDT on October 02, 2007
Morning Taz and all, looks like the season may get rather interesting huh??


yes it could
Good Morning StormW..so good to see ya!!..thanks in advane for the new update!
It's good they made this change while things are slow..trying to get used to it. West Palm is not nearly as windy today..still dreary though.
2135. Bonedog
Morning StormW looking foward to it :)
2136. IKE
weatherguy03 7:38 AM CDT on October 02, 2007
Ok 23 is a hurricane, and JP is a cloud! Guys we have to do better then that!!..LOL


How about a picture of Led Zeppelin? Will that work? LOL.
blog does seem a bit slow to reload!..hopefully they get the kinks worked out
Just checking to see if my avatar works... grrr... its not.
I don't think it does MissBennnet
2140. Hhunter
jajabinks thought...me thanks gom distirbance a becoming cat 1 hurricane for da western gom..
2141. Hhunter
jajabinks thought...me thanks gom distirbance a becoming cat 1 hurricane for da western gom..
Good morning, Storm...nice to "see" you
let's try now... ok I give up. I'll mess with it later.
2145. 606
Good morning Bloggers all is quiet today. Hope it remains that way.
2147. Hhunter
jajabinks thought...me thanks gom distirbance a becoming cat 1 hurricane for da western gom..
sorry MissBennett..still not working
For what it is worth, I see the CMC redevelops Ex Karen and moves it towards Bahamas as a strong system. Before I get hammered about the CMC model, I know. Just thought it was interesting
lol where is everyone?..did the blog crash...lol
2151. Bonedog
wow got to use the new ignore feature works like a charm thanks wunderground admin!
90L has a floater up now..
Does anyone know, historically, which models tend to be better in the GOM?
aubiesgirl how can i change my avater pic?Thanks Adrian
2155. Bonedog
MissBenette dont fret. The pic takes a few before it shows, wunderground admin have to approve it first. Mine took almost an hour to show this morning
Good morning guys...nice to see the new blog this morning
LOL Bonedog! I like the fact that you can hide things without having to (-) someone. (The redundant postings of the TWO) =)
Cool new blog this morning!

So what is the latest on 90L? Our local met was saying if anything, it will be slow develop, so little chance of it becoming a storm and hitting the northern GOM. Any thoughts?
2159. Bonedog
yup ;)
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT TUE OCT 2 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND A WEAK
SURFACE LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA
...ARE PRODUCING SQUALLY
WEATHER OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA...THE
BAHAMAS...CUBA...AND THE ADJACENT WATERS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND EASTERN GULF. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SUBTROPICAL
OR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.



if you all are wanting to no where 90L is here it is in the bold
Wow sooooo many new faces!
Morning all :~)

Before I get hammered about the CMC model, I know. Just thought it was interesting

lol zeph, the CMC is always interesting, or amusing. ☺ Hardly ever correct though!

watchinwx, I agree, the hide feature is really nice!
2163. Soloco2
...
Wow, the new code is in...this will take some getting used to...
Taz
Was looking at the Lake Tahoe pics..is the lake still that low...wow..
2166. nash28
Morning all.
This is like myspace for weather geeks..lol, gotta go..bbl
how dos evere one like it
This is like myspace for weather geeks..lol, gotta go..bbl


lol
No kidding flood, after three years this is a big change. I think I like everything in the change, still a little iffy on the profile images though. Likely just different and once I adapt to it I think it will be ok. Seems it may distract from the conversation a little though. Not complaining, just saying I have to get used to it.
any way here is 90L and 90L is looking good

SJ. Are you are lighthouse!..LOL I cant see that very well.
90L is in the straits?..wow I'm behind..lol
Storm, I agree...this is cool, and they're spending a little time approving the images as well...
Wow! This looks great! Way to go Wunderground Admin! Now I can put a face/pic to a name... lots easier to see who the trolls are, too...

Cool... now I gotta find a pic...

In any case, weather-related, what's shakin' with 90L? Also, what's goin' on with all the storm remnants in the Atlantic? Based on the blog, it looks like these systems may get to "converse"... any thoughts?
2177. Bonedog
is that thick convection over the LLC or associated with the ULL?
Bob, I am a beacon in the fog :~)
lol
2179. NEwxguy
this is pretty interestin,I like the new look
......
I think I read earlier that the weather conditions had totally changed from yesterday's forecast...if that is true what does that do to 90L
don't let stormj fool ya...that light house hasn't worked in over 100 years....
Got to run, have a Dr's appt this morning. See y'all later.

enjoy the new blogs :~)
BajaAlemt, although some of the experimental models (like HWRF) are "tuned" for the tropics and therefore theoretically better, the truth is that models perform well when they have good data and when the atmosphere is not highly chaotic. Most models perform well in the higher lattitudes since the atmosphere is organized in a way that lends itself to predicability. In the tropics, sometimes quite small features will organize into something larger. If the model doesn't detect the small features, it will not be able to predict their evolution. A rule of thumb is that a model can not see items (clouds, convergence lines, fronts) less than about 6X its resolution. So even with a high resolution model (like a 4 km model...some MM5 and other research models are run at that resolution, a feature would need to be about 25 km long, or wide, or in diameter, before the model could resolve it in its analysis and then develop or not develop it, as the case may be. In the tropics, where it is the low level convergence of small features that initiate the rapid development of tropical systems, models can usually only tell us where conditions are unstable enough for tropical systems to develop, not when or even exactly where.
Clear as mud?
2187. Bonedog
thanks JP

to change the avatar go to your photo album and select the new pic, click modify pic, click the set as bio box and viola new avatar
lol press, that is not exactly true...Remember the Spoleto thing few a years ago?

Not sure if that really counts though. Talk to you later.
the new Modify Comment is cool
by the way have you all seen the new update Banned List???

Banning a user means that all of their comments on your blog are instantly hidden from view, and they are no longer allowed to post comments in your blog. If the user is removed from your banned list all of their previous comments will be visible again and they will be allowed to post more comments to your blog. This ban can be for a limited number of hours or permanent as you choose.

Use the Banned Name spaces below to add the Wunder Handles of users whom you wish to block from posting to your blog. If the fields are left blank it will be ignored when you submit the form. To remove a name from the list, simply delete it from it's field and submit the form.

Use the Hours to Ban fields below to determine the number hours you wish a ban to last. The number of hours until the ban ends will be reported to the user when they attempt to access your blog. 0 means the ban is permanent. -1 denotes a ban with a time limit that has since expired. Any other number is seen as a number of hours the ban should remain in force
I agree Taz, the modify feature works great now!
Good morning, I see the invest 90L indeed did not move nw.

Good morning, it's Tuesday and It's NOT raining at my house right now. YIPEE!!!!

got to read back and see wht is going on with 90L!
2192. jphurricane2006 9:16 AM EDT on October 02, 2007
Bonedog I dont see that bio box on mine

Jp--its just a little check box..
2196. Bonedog
jp on the modify image page

Status Primary Portrait for Bio

click that box
2197. beell
42023
Link
42022
Link
VENFL1
Link
2198. Nashda
Good Morning everyone....... :o)
New Blog. Morning folks. Woke up to da boom booms dis mornin!
90L looks to be very weak this morning located somewhere near Key West.
It will be interesting to see if it starts to strengthen.
42003 - MARITIME-buoy (At 25/85)
Tuesday Oct. 2 - 12:49 UTCAir Temperature: 74°F
Dewpoint: 74°F
Wind: NE at 36 mph
gusting to 45
Pressure: 1009.9 mb
Wave Height: 8 ft
Sea Surface Temp: 84.4°F
There's a lot of "how do i change my avatar?" and not enough "What's the weather like?"
haven't been on since yesterday morning...I LOVE it!!!!!
2205. Soloco2
.
90L could end up suprising a lot of people?
There's a lot of "how do i change my avatar?" and not enough "What's the weather like?"

lol nature of the beast..lol
hey there guys.. i just popped in one second to see whats going on... so what are the latest on 90L?
Hey this new blog setup is interesting
Dont worry Aubiesgirl. Just keep smiling. Everything will be ok. The weather. Its wet.
Lots of new people and avatars today ... lol
I'll be back later ... i'm away to chance my avatar xD.
Were on the other side of the storm now. No more N.E. winds for a bit. L.O. got good rain last nite.
2213. Bonedog
ok jp let me try and walk you through it step by step

Left side of page MY PHOTOS

click

Your photos come up
select desired photo by clicking on it

you will see three lines
image approved
modify image
Primary portrait

Click modify image

your image pops up with a bunch of stuff under it
title
caption
camera type
date taken
location
status

Click the little white box in between status and primary portrait for bio

then click the grey box modify image


Give 'em a break, Cloud...it'll settle in once everyone gets used to the new code. Okay, about the weather...what's the current track for 90L? It didn't make the projected move to the NW...
I"m always smilin..lol weather here..mild and very dry..lol
Could someone point out with coordinates the "weak" sfc low that's is supposed to be 90L? Cause, honestly, I don't see it! Now, that upper level low in the seGOM's got a pretty spiral to it, but that's all I see. I suppose it could develop. TIA
Very interesting Invest..lol

2218. NEwxguy
I guess this is going to be something we will have to get use to.
No, Floodman, it didn't...said it wouldn't yesterday, too! All that just bumfuzzled me yesterday, didn't see it!
Aubie: this southerly wind we've got now might send you folks a happy surprise
Weatherguy, a Yankees fan?!? So sorry to hear that...
2223. Bonedog
MLC as of early this morning it was 28N 79W so figure in around that area
42003 is in the middle of some pretty good convection and so higher wind velocities from "aloft" are coming to the surface in its neighbourhood. Having said that, the imagery this morning suggests that a low level warm core system (subtrop) could develop quite soon...maybe 24 hours.
Floodman,

nice dred locks pic.
Ha Ha!! Yep. Yankee fan all the way!!
2221. Ivansvrivr 1:34 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
Aubie: this southerly wind we've got now might send you folks a happy surprise


Oh yea?.
2229. beell
good point progster,
thanks
good synopsis Storm - thanks
Good morning,

Whats up with the new pics on here? Whoa????
I'll have a very weird face as my avatar once it's approved ... lol.
Good blog, StormW...thanks!
Aubie; one of those where some water falls out of the sky.Wind switch doesn't turn of our spicket but may turn it on for alot of other folks who need some rain.
2239. beell
Pressure falls at these buoys have been ongoing for about 24 hours tho.
2240. Bonedog
ok jp on that page click upload and you have to wait a few for wunder admin to acept the image. after its approved the set bio box will appear
Thanks, Bondog; but, I'm picking up the phone and making an appointment with the optometrist. Apparently, I need my eyes checked because I surely can't see a sfc low spinning anywhere. I just see fuzzy clouds moving mostly north with the trough.

Now, that big blob in the seGOM cycloning around has some pretty spin to it, but hey, that's big enough for me to see I guess! lol
2242. Bonedog
good discussion stormw
This is cool.......
great blog, thanks StormW
Initial conditions for 12Z model runs on 90L

LATCUR = 24.3N LONCUR = 82.6W DIRCUR = 260DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 24.9N LONM12 = 79.6W DIRM12 = 256DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 25.2N LONM24 = 77.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Link
This whole system doesn't look very "tropical" anymore.
2248. beell
I guess I need to go to mlc.
Like YOUR pic.

that's big enough for me to see I guess! lol
2249. Bonedog
AMBER ALERT AMBER ALERT AMBER ALERT


Polk County Florida

15 year old disapeared w/ 46 year old sex offender

call 800 266 tips if any informationis known

alysa franks 15 year old white female blonde hair

white male short blonde hair blue eyes

G02-5EL 2000 black lumina


wow when did the blog change so much in looks
2251. Bonedog
jp click the image you have and the box should appear if not then contact wunderground admin for help
I sign on to check my little invest and see the GFS has tracked more west. What's the deal? Any info?
90L is where?

In the gulf?

I guess we have to wait and see......looks like the very least the gulf coast can get some rain. Maybe between Pensacola and Tally..........They need it........Here in the orlando area, we are getting some good rains right now.........
lol, beell...must be old, tired eyes! The NHC must have close-up sats, telescopes, microscopes or mag glasses. They might see it, but I sure can't. Maybe, they'll give us a close up shot later of all the hot "action" with 90L!
We've gone from the steady showery rain, to sun/thunderstorms. I could bet the afternoon heating could pop some big ones, even on the west coast.
Finally some sunshine in SE Florida!
2257. NEwxguy
really enjoying our great weather up here in new england,got to enjoy now,I'm sure the US weather pattern is getting ready to change
Don't worry moonlight I am having trouble seeing it too. He just pointed to a bright blue area where the low was on twc.
2259. NEwxguy
The upper level low does not seem to be moving much in the GOM
2251. Bonedog 1:48 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
jp click the image you have and the box should appear if not then contact wunderground admin for help


Bonedog that little box you check for bio pic only comes up when u first upload the pic. I found that if you upload and get it approved then you have to go back like u didnt upload it and try again to get that box to come up. It was wierd.
test
THE "WETSHINE" STATE apparently in the next couple of days! I know the secoast is prolly tired of the rain, but I know the rest of the state has been needing it! Congrats...and send some our way, please!

Blank
48 HOUR FORECAST
Is Dr. M doing an update this morning? I'm very interested in 90L for my own selfish reasons.
2267. Bonedog
DBW thanks for the info

JP you get that?
Glad to hear it Gulf, now bring on the cold weather
this...new thing looks more modern lol totally like it.
2270. IKE
GulfScotsman 8:59 AM CDT on October 02, 2007
I now declare hurricane season 2007 is over.

everyone have a great winter.


Adios.
Aubie: Moonlight cowboy just posted your happy surprise.
2272. NEwxguy
mlc,from that graphics it looks like there is going to be a steady parade of fronts across the country next week
Daytona,
you can modify image and recheck the box.
holy mackeral - i leave for a day and the entire look of the blog changes...someone pass me a xanax...it's all too anxiety producing for me...
2275. Patrap
GOES IR Loop of Gulf of Mexico

Link
I don't like the new blog format!! I will find another forum to post my views or read others.
good bye all
GulfCoastScotsman could you E-mail me that pic of Max and the fish from yesterday. That was great.
2278. Bonedog
so with those coordinates the convection is still displaced to the NE
Looks like the new blog is here ;) - and we here in Charleston SC are supposed to see some rain etc. but only wind so far.....
2280. IKE
I don't like the new blog format!! I will find another forum to post my views or read others.
good bye all


Adios to you too....jeez, there's 2 gone!!!!
Not on topic.... Do you have to reduce the size of the image you upload?
Moonlight - is that showing 90L in the central Gulf Thursday?
I do like the new blog format! It looks really nice and neat!
2285. Bonedog
according to the cyclone phase site the GFS keeps this system cold core


Link
2286. NEwxguy
2276. hurricanedave 2:01 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
I don't like the new blog format!! I will find another forum to post my views or read others.
good bye all

Some like it and some don't
2287. Oreodog
Later Gulf. See ya in '08.
2272. NEwxguy 2:01 PM GMT on October 02, 2007 Hide this comment.
mlc,from that graphics it looks like there is going to be a steady parade of fronts across the country next week


....yes, it does. But, that could spell trouble, too, if anything spins up in the Caribbean. Could pull something up towards the ncGOM coast, or wFL coast. Climatologically speaking that is.
Hi. Just wondered why the time is jumping all over the place?
2291. Patrap


Max Mayfield pic from yesterday..Grouper,Big,un

Link
2292. Bonedog
NEW BLOG
CMC keeps predicting these cyclones... it must still be running Windows ME...
2294. KRL
Is there a switch somewhere to turn off i.e. hide all the avatars? I'm starting to find them distracting while scrolling.

Melwerle:passing 1mg, taking one too.
2282. txalwaysprepared 2:04 PM GMT on October 02, 2007 Hide this comment.
Moonlight - is that showing 90L in the central Gulf Thursday?


StormW can better answer this; but, my guess is that's still just the ull moving more west in the next couple of days. It may work it's way down to the surface and become tropical eventually, but I wouldn't think the propects of that happening are very high. Could be wrong though.
2297. IKE
Some like it and some don't

What i don't like is the bull you have to go through to upload an image...I'm not the most computer literate person...but, if you could just copy the properties of the image...paste it wherever, click enter, it would be OK....too much to go through on here for me to upload anything.
Lost power here in Ponte Vedra Beach, circuits in the grid have shorted out somewhere.
Good Morning All, So do we have anything interesting going on in the tropics?
I like the format of the blog, it's really nice.
Sheri
Thanks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
2303. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
Tampa Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI 30 frame Loop

Link
oy;
Patrap as you can see I like fish. mmmm. I'm glad the rest of fl is on the wet side now too. I feel sorry for the rest of Fl when we get so much rain but nowhere else. I remember summers when everyday the storms popped up in 10 miles inland and went west. You could see them every afternoon, but not get a drop.
Later Storm:o)
S'long, StormW...
THE LONG FETCH OF WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS OVER THE ATLANTIC WAVE WATCH SHOWS STEADY INCREASE IN WAVE HEIGHTS WITH SEAS FULLY ARISEN (TUESDAY) WITH A 13 TO 14 FT HEIGHT INDICATED. WHEN COMBINED WITH ENE/E WINDS 25 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KNOTS OFFSHORE.

For North Florida.

I can also tell you this-I was in the Bahamas for the past 4 days-and the winds were gale force at times. So Nassau, which never gets surf-well, a swell snuck in there, and a offshore wind shift yesterday made it look decent....if you did't mind paddling at least a mile out, with no one else except the sharks.
2311. NEwxguy
enjoyed your analysis Storm,see ya
hello
2225. Weather456 1:36 PM GMT on October 02, 2007
Floodman,

nice dred locks pic.



Not dreads, 456...Jerry Garcia...
The way the GOM and the Carrib. looks, i thought i was looking at the Western Pacific...lol
hello
2316. CJ5
Melissa is still spinning and now building some convection.