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Bahamas low growing slowly

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:06 PM GMT on June 23, 2006

A non-tropical low pressure system just northeast of the Bahama Islands has a surface circulation, and is expected to slowly grow more organized as it moves west-northwest towards Florida and the Carolinas over the next two days. Wind shear over the low was 10 - 25 knots early this morning at 5am EDT, but the 8 am EDT wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin's CIMSS showed that this shear dropped to 5 - 15 knots. The shear has continued to drop this afternoon, and was 5 - 10 knots at 2pm EDT (18 GMT). This should allow some modest development, and the Hurricane Center has scheduled a Hurricane Hunter aircraft to investigate the system on Saturday.


Figure 1. Preliminary model tracks for the Bahamas disturbance.

The low is very disorganized at present, with only a little intense thunderstorm activity near the circulation center. A QuikScat satellite wind estimate from 6:38 am EDT this morning revealed winds of about 15 - 20 mph in most of the region, with one tiny spot of higher winds in an intense thunderstorm near 23N 72W. Sea surface temperatures are in the 27 - 29 C range, which is well above the 26 C threshhold needed for tropical storm formation. However, as one can see from the water vapor satellite image below, there is a large area of very dry air over Florida. Upper level winds from the west are pushing this dry air into the center of the low, and this is inhibiting development. The low is forecast to move over Florida by Sunday, where it should bring welcome rains. It is also possible the low could turn northwest before reaching Florida, and move ashore over South Carolina or Georgia. Given the low's current poor organization, short amount of time it has to grow, and the presence of dry air and modest wind shear, the strongest system we can expect at landfall would be a 50-mph tropical storm. I think landfall as a tropical depression or a near-tropical depression is more likely.


Figure 1. Latest water vapor satellite image shows a very dry airmass (brown colors) over Florida, extending eastward into the Bahamas. The area of clouds northeast of the Bahamas at the edge of this dry air is what we are watching.

Hurricane-resistant homes
An interesting article from the New York Times yesterday described new super-strong homes being built in Florida and on the Gulf Coast. Insurers love them, and are offering up to 25% discounts on policies. With the high levels of hurricane activity observed since 1995 expected to continue at least another 10-20 years, expect to see this trend continue. I'd certainly be in the market for one if I lived in Florida!

I'll be back with an update later today if there is a significant change in the Bahamas system. I'll save my discussion of the large-scale weather pattern over the Atlantic so far this June for later.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Pony..same thing from the 5:30 outlook.
this syetm is looking even more pathetic tonight than last night - looks like the dry air is catching up with it..
Their discussion this morning had a trough picking up the upper low leaving a weak surface low behind to move into florida. Though there is a drop in shear, with the dry air there is no convection to tie the llc to the ullc.
Michael Formosa was around at least as long ago as Ivan. Do a search on "Formosa NHC".
StormTop What are you going to do if your wrong on this just like Alberto and the Upper low in the gulf early this year. You have been wrong this year so far. I think this will devlop slowly though into a Td then become a TS and hit the Florida Coast or north word as a 40-45Kt Cyclone. Wind shear is Dying and the dry air is receding.
I due think FORMOSA was forecasting last year.

The differnce from 5:30 to 8 was poorly organized to better organized
I think that the disturbance looks really sick right now. Link. Dry air (shear is pretty low, according to this)?
508. A4Guy
Hello. I am new to the site and a meteorological amateur - but I love tropical weather, and am trying to learn more (living in S. Florida). Are there any other great sites I can visit (outside of the NHC TPC). I really like the forecast models, but can never find them on-line except when there is a named storm (and then I can only find them on a non-weather website). Would like to see them as they are run (for example - where did the model map at the top of this blog come form?). Thanks in advance for your help.
Behind the blob is the ULL right? Could the LLC merge with the ULL and therefore develop a TD North of the Virgin Islands??
A4guy - check out stormjunkie.com - he has lots of cool stuff
A4Guy -

Lurker tip of the day -

try stormjunkie's site - lots of links there that you can then bookmark.
Don't get too excited about this storm Pony. Dry air and no cloud tops near -70C all day spells tropical wave to me.
Coopswife - looks like we had the same idea!
The area east of the disturbance (where some models are developing another storm in a few days) looks a lot better. Link
roger that
Not excited the dry air to me has made it look a bit sick as well. Just posting the NHC's discussion on it.
What ever happens we need the rain. If you look at it thats about all it will be a rain maker.
It could still flare up. Some other ships had higher winds


LAT LON WDIR WSPD GST WVHT DPD PRES PTDY ATMP WTMP


26.30 -74.50 91 1.9 29.95 -0.02 79.7 81.9
30.30 -72.40 201 19.4 - 6.6 5.0 30.13 +0.00 76.6 80.1
30.40 -72.60 205 24.1 - 8.2 5.0 30.02 +0.03 77.9 75.2

But the water temp dies off north of it.

The larger piece headed towards Miami could cause problems tonight.
what happen to all the convection?....is this a cycle?
Hello again. Last week tropical wave in the Atlantic didnt became a cyclonic system buut anyway it bring a lot of rain to P.R. I see the new wave coming from Africa and looks fantastic
Hello Everybody,
It is possible the dry anchored over the Gulf of Mexico should start saturating soon,,based on this theory,..
1.Thunderstoms over the coastal deep south are begining to send outflow boundries into the the northern gulf.This should increase nocturnal oceanic thunderstorms over the northern gulf.
This proccess is also occuring in the area near the the Yucatan.
2.The trough in the central USA should change upstream windflow from dry continental Mexican desserts,,to the NW Carribean and Eastern Paciific.
2.CLIMATE! The longer the dry air remaines over the Gulf,,the faster the upper layer of water will heat up,,especially in the coastal shallows..increasing evaporation..the dry air will simply saturate from the surface below.THE RAINY SEASON WANTS TO START.
However,,if the dry air from continental Mexico keeps intruding,,the procces is hindered.
I found a picture of the back of Michael Formosa's head.

link
It seems some people in here want my email address to get my predictions on the storms coming after the 4th of july until the end of october....first i want to clarify something i did not make a prediction last year on how many hurricanes we got...and on alberto i was 50% right i predicted it would never reach hurricane strength which it didnt i was wrong on where it went inland though...ok STORMCHASER_21@HOTMAIL.COM YOU EMAIL ME ILL ANSWER YOUR QUESTIONS YOU HAVE FOR THE FUTURE STORMS THIS YEAR..THATS WHY I ONLY PREDICTED 8 HURRICANES THIS YEAR AND 2 MAJOR ONES BECAUSE THE HIGH IS SET UP WAY SOUTH OF WHERE IT WAS LAST YEAR INCREASING THE THREAT TO THE YUCATAN AND THE MEXICO TEXAS COAST...THIS COULD CHANGE WEATHER CHANGES EVERY 24 HOURS...I CANT SEE THAT MUCH OF A CHANGE UNTIL LATE SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER...THATS WHY IM ONLY PREDICTING 14 NAMED STORMS....StormTOP
sounds reasonable, airmass..
dry air..... massive ull....

things dont look well atm! :)

but looking at the cmc, gfs, and nogaps, we will have beyrl in 3-4 days.....

when the gfs, nogaps, and cmc get into agreement, i think this bears watching.

at this point, if somebody could send up smoke signals with a twirl, i'd be interested! LOL
The back of Formosa's head - this marks the high point of the night.

Well that piece that came off is looking important I guess we have TWO storms now. They both look like there going to make it. Well Kind of I guess.
Since I have never kept up with what goes on elsewhere in the world (apart from the BBC), I found the following site interesting.

http://www.npmoc.navy.mil

For instance, it has historical info on lots of storms. Here's an example.
hey stormtop..... you take your meds? :)
southeast alabama needs rain badly.....any hope from the bahama blob
stormtop, you missed the track by a few states. and dont do caps anymore, its making my turtles mad.
531. MZT
There was plenty of moisture tonight coming through NC... the streets were flooding and I had to jump over muddy streams in the grass.

Weird to have so much moisture inland, and it's dry as sawdust over coastal FLA.
odd to say the least. Take a look at the loop.
I wonder if they throw up any warnings for costal Florida?
535. MZT
The GFS, CMC, and NOGAPS models seem quite interested in the that situation farther east in the Atlantic. They take it different directions but all show it deepening.
that's pathetic!
LOL, and how much would that cost to cool a large area?
I think that the African Dust is like a sponge and drying the storm up.
Actually - for the Navy's view of the Atlantic side you might want to take a look at:

http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/home1.html
cost? and explain the method?
oh crud and kapoooieee...

good evening turtle, coops, and you el pollo loco cyclonebuster person...

looks like jax is gonna get some rain! I sure hope so!
MZT where are you in NC? I saw the large precip shield. It looked almost stationary. I haven't even looked at a surface map. Any storms coming east got the plug pulled on them around I-95 so we haven't gotten any (not that we're complaining).

For all you FL's, I WILL do a rain dance for real. I'll donate any dollar bills to buying Prozac for the unnamed persons that needed it last night (LOL).
I have to say, even though I am in the middle of where our putative storm would go, I am less than impressed. I think it is more likely that the dry air to the west will get entrained in it completely, kill ALL the convection in it and the low will gradually fill in. Looking at it now, there are a couple of thunderstorms in an area of 100,000 square miles and some cyclonically curved high clouds. Maybe tomorrow will be different, but there is no there there now.
548. MZT
Another somewhat unusual too right now... is that the positions of the DryBlob, the potential wave east of it, and a wave coming off Africa are arriving in a rather "August-like" formation. June storms should be deeper in the Carribbean.
That storm just about evaporated in about an hour. I wonder if the center is in the area headed towards fla. It should hit hot water in a few hrs. It doesnt seem to be embedded in any wave.
the disturbance is nothing at the moment.
551. MZT
I'm in Charlotte ... the forecasters just called for a wave of afternoon storms. But it's rained all night. Getting home was a mess, all those big fat puddles slowing traffic.
StSimons...you are like me, falling under that 40-year-old "cone-of-protection"...no, I doubt we will see even 2 inches of rain, maybe you might, but I doubt I will.
I wish we would get 2 inches of rain aquak9
This guy isn't for real, this is just a blog, he isn't going to be cooling water anywhere. An elementary school student could probably tell you that one way to get rid of a hurricane is to remove it's source of warm water. But this isn't reality, it's not going to happen, THIS IS JUST A BLOG TAKE IT AS SUCH.

And whoever it was that was telling people to email him for his "predictions" is a little off the wall also, you can't really be serious....
told you all this afternoon this thing was gonna dissipate
I see what might be anticyclonic outflow to the nw of the center and close in if I squint and imagine things maybe those are curved bands of low level cloudiness, then some blue convection near the center.
CFLweather....who ya talking to? not being mean, just curious about that post...
I know that the first part is referring to cyclonebuster and his (supposedly) water-cooling tunnels.
We'll see what happens at the diurnal max. It's not looking too hot at the moment though.
just to pass the time...say "low growing slowly" five times out loud...

Don't tell me the Good Dr. doesn't have a sense of humor...
Looking at the water vapor loop things might not be quite that dire. There seems to be a circle of moist air where I imagine the center to be. The dry air seems less prevailing with moist air being drawn from the north.

MZT I guess you guys were dry before today, weren't you? Hope it comes in handy.

Question for anyone... I'm only a novice so explain something for me. I live in Greenville NC. There's been precip in central NC for several hours. I can see a cold front draped across region. Why are none of the storms surviving east past I-95? It got cloudy earlier and radar showed impressive little storm couple counties to the west, but before it got close it "got the plug pulled on it". And the overnight forecast downplays chance of T-storms. I guess my question is: is there some feature inhibiting development of T-storms in eastern part of NC and if so what is it?
Colby, what odds do you give that our Bahama disturbance will dissapate completely before hitting any land?
565. MZT
OK, time to quit hedging and "call it".

At the risk of an Alberto-like escape tonight happening, I'm calling the Bahama dance over.

I say it will not be upgraded to a TD tomorrow. Dry air is being pulled south of the system, piercing what little moisture was being drawn from the south.

We may as well start paying more attention to that mess around 60 deg west.
*seconds MZT's call*
567. MZT
flodzonenc, I'm just another amateur here but I think it's a "stalled front". This happens sometimes when fronts drape across the piedmont rather than push offshore. (In the winter is causes thick fog, when so much moisture drops.)
mail, StSimons
href="http://www.ral.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20060622&endTime=-1&duration=4" target="_blank">water vapor loop things might not be quite that dire. There seems to be a circle of moist air where I imagine the center to be. The dry air seems less prevailing with moist air being drawn from the north.
Cyclonebuster,

You cant 'remove' the heat with your tunnels anyways. Unless you plan using your tunnels to heat out to space. All your doing is changing the heat distribution, the total heat of the Earth will not change as stated by the thermodynamic laws of energy conservation. If you had even half the knowledge needed to understand why these tunnels wont work you would know that.
What the dingdong?

It was supposed to be a loop. ANyway the NHC coordinates are on the northern side of the ULC. The dry air is in the middle of the ULC but not the lat/lon the NHC gives.
Best guess - A rotating storm that received momentum in the form of an increased westerly velocity is headed towards Florida. The shear and rotational area E of the Bahamas tore out the core of the storm.
I think that cyclonebuster means not to remove the heat, but to replace the warm surface water with cold water from below (as in upweling). In any case, his tunnels won't work.
replied, aquak9 :)
Dang mistakes - Unless you plan on using your tunnels to send the heat out to space.
MZT, thanks. I figured the front got stuck. Thought the surface map should have been showing stationary rather than cold front, but maybe it's a little old. Isn't western NC very dry? Probably a blessing to you guys (except for those fat messy puddles).
Sorry MZT: thought you ment the Atlantic storm.
Then you should know you cant stop global warming with your tunnels. BTW, you need to prove yourself right, not the other way around. Why cant you understand that. Leave us alone plz. We've all heard your rubbish and none of us are interested;
He's probably very young (cyclonebuster), which isn't a problem at all because we all were at some point. People can be whomever they want to be on this blog, but most don't seem to realize that and actually buy into what some of these nuts are saying.

So what about the Atlantic storm?
JFla....I wouldn't pull out the umbrella...looking like a no-go at this point...







You proved youself right with pascal & bernoulli? When? Please show me the math that proves you right.

Also, global warming as caused by C02 concentrations alters the global heat content by allowing the Earth to obsorb more heat from the sun while radiating less heat away into space. Understand?
586. MZT
That's fricken halarious MZT!
Why is there a due west component now? Take a chance - no model no wait and see its headed towards Miami!
Cyclone buster, dont worry about it, there is no feasible way to weaken hurricanes with our current technologies.
I didnt ask you to change thier forumlas, I aksed you to show me where you plugged in the variables and prove that you tunnels work.
I couldn't tell ya, cyclone. You have to find that out for yourself. Come back when you have done the math.

Anyways, if you looked at this US WV loop you would be hard pressed to tell me their was any chance of a tropical depression. Can only see the upper low spinning away.
cyclonebuster - My suggestion is to put together a good business plan on your "tunnels"
idea.

Also, make a working scaled model and patent
the idea. Then try to sell you idea either to
venture capitalists, or to the oil and coal
industries. You might also want to find an
ally with real scientific credentials, and
have your idea tested under controlled
conditions.

Why do you keep spamming your ideas here? Do
you really think there are people on this blog
that can help you advance your dream? If so,
you are delusional. What are you, like 13
years old?

Your "tunnels" spam gets marked as SPAM by me from now on...
Its not a self guiding storm the wave it was embedded in is back east. You guys are actually going to argue about the tunnel thing.
Nope done with that. Back to weather talk. The chances of the bahamas disturbance developing are looking worse. If it can muster some convection during the dinurnal max then it has a chance, but its not looking tropical at all right now.
JFLORIDA - I was active here last year for a spell, then I dropped out for awhile. I wanted to make my one and only statement to cyclonebuster, who is actually spamming this blog continously with what I believe is a crackpot idea. He is pitching his commercial wares here; which fits the the primary defintion of SPAM. No argument, just this one warning, before I take action.
Dont get me wrong Cyclone good idea but the amount of energy needed would be prohibitive and it would be, er like worse environmental disaster than we have now.

I think a lot of the rotation either went poofy or is headed for south Florida. Is there even a surface low there anymore? Ill check.
cyclonebuster - I just marked your above comment as spam. Let us see how the administrators respond. Your constant spamming of your commerical ideas detracts from the value of this blog. Your half-baked spewing constantly day in and day out distracts people from the the spirit and the true purpose of this blog. You deserve to be banned unless you desist.
604. code1
cyclone, have you tried selling your idea on a strictly scientific blog. Not weather or otherwise? Might be better for you to seek out such. :-)
cyclonebuster - Try publishing your ideas in a peer-reviewed scientific journal. I have several such publications, plus many more conference publications. Email me if you want a review or advice. But please desist from spamming this blog with your ideas. Spamming is also defined as a continual bombardment of the same idea, over and over, when the recipients are not interested, the advice is unsolicited, and you are totally off-topic. Face it, you are a spammer.
Everyone watch the loop. Something was transferred back to a convective cell from that piece that sheared off. In frames 7 - 10. I wonder if that was the Cyclone? I bet it starts back up from that cell.
611. code1
I agree cyclone, it is the best weather blog, just not what you need. Give it a break.
LMAO MZT~ too bad it didn't work.

The GFS rainfall model is showing 2-4 inches over FL. I hope it comes. We're back to preAlberto as far as active fires burning here. Right now we have 71 fires on 20,852 acres, that are less than 100% contained. Link

91L has lost it's ambition for now. I think I'll skip the dinurnal max tonight.
614. Inyo
cyclonebuster, its a lot easier to warm than to cool things. There's a reason we have had fire for the last million years or so but air conditioning for just a few decades.

also weve got an easterly wave coming through southeasten California, its muggy out with mid level clouds. I'll bet we see some mountain thunderstorms tomorrow
I am leaving for St. Maarten on tuesday for 2 weeks of vacation. Any of you care to tell me if there is anything in the Atlantic or coming out of Africa that I should be concerned about?
So whatever this thing is growing again about 300 mi E of Miami.
And then I realized . . . like I was shot . . . like I was shot with a diamond . . . a diamond bullet right through my forehead. And I thought: My God . . . the genius of that. The genius. The will to do that. Perfect, genuine, complete, crystalline, pure.
620. Alec
REPORT THIS BLOGGER.....HE IS HERE TO CAUSE TROUBLE!!! SPREAD THE WORD!!!!!!!!!
Thats the area low center - I think things displace when the center of convection becomes the lowest surface pressure, except of course in large storms.

Its coming back. Made you talk about the weather cyclone!
Guy - Apocalypse Now! My favorite line - you are old!
Its even faceted with a ring nebula in the background. Just what are you proposing cyclone?
Alec where is your alter ego...STORMTOP?
629. Alec
cyclone, you have NO clue about who this guy is....he's come here to start fights....He has stolen "hurricanechaser's" name....this one is "huricanechaser".....
Shut up huricanechaser. YOu are not welcome.
huricanechaser will you shut up
At least he did not infect my blog.
634. code1
huricanechaser is not hurricanechaser. We believe it to be a past trouble maker who has been banned under at least 10-14 former handles. Most longtimers know him as Jeff. Not to worry, his Dad will be notified tomorrow. Ignore and spam his posts.
636. Alec
Posted By: huricanechaser at 4:39 AM GMT on June 24, 2006.
Alec where is your alter ego...STORMTOP?


Ummm....go join the circus....AND GET OUT OF HERE YOU LOSER...
Get the heck out of here and into bed.
So someone why do the highs and lows always take on that same perforated disk shape.
Its not Jeff, he wouldnt have a name like that because he is a friend of Tony's.
atmosweather :huricanechaser insult me in my blog and said not so nic things to me in my own blog i this e mail aron about it he is ban for evere to post in there
Good idea David.

Huricanechaser, I will say it again: GET YOUR FILTHY SELF OUT OF EVERYONE'S SIGHT!
he a jackass if he evere come to my blog and said some like that to or e mail me i kill him for it
644. Alec
OH YEAH MR SMARTY.....GO AHEAD AND TRY ME BIG FELLA..........NOW YOU WILL BE BANNED FROM HERE FOREVER YOU LOSER...
now he trying to kill dr M blog whats next
Yes David do whatever is neccessary.
I wish that he had a blog... I know exactly how to trash one (I wonder if he would know how to fix it).
LOL Michael I know too now that you told me!!!
: atmosweather i have tell aron and i ban him from my blog now he trying to kill dr m blog with a vary long post if you do not want him in your blog ban him now be for he post in there
650. Alec
EVERYBODY BAN THIS BLOGGER FROM YOUR BLOGS OR HE'LL TRASH THEM!!!
Dont mess up the discussion = you signed an agreement entering this site, that is legal and binding, and, you by the Paperwork Reduction Act you are bound to follow its rules. If you damage this site or its commerce its owners may prosecute you and recover money and or property they lost by your malicious attacks. Your ISP will be HAPPY to turn you over too if they suspect this. They know EXACTLY who you are.
And Ill even be happy to testify too!!!
wow, bored much?
I have de-banned him from my blog; I want him to post in it so that there is evidence.
There's evidence here.
If hes done this before they should prosecute him. If he threatens any of you just call the cops. I have a friend that runs a housing service people think its a lot of trouble - its not that hard to trace someone.
Will do JFlorida, thanks.
JFLORIDA - The words of a fanatic. Most people always misunderstood Apocalypse Now! Vietnam vets that I knew said "it wasn't realistic". Of course it was not, it had a much deeper meaning. First of all, it was a modern adaptation of Joseph Conrad's Heart of Darkness. But mostly, it emphasized the loss of our traditional American concepts of morality and justice. It detailed the level of hell we would have descended to be able to "win" the Vietnam War. In other words, if we had really wanted to win in Vietnam, we would have had to lose all the good characteristics that we think of as being "American". Heads on a spike. No compassion or mercy. "We must kill them. We must incinerate them. Pig after pig. Cow after cow. Village after village. Army after army". A complete rejection of the Enlightenment Principles which guided our Founding Fathers.

Here, I use the dialogue to highlight the beliefs of a fanatic. And, yes, I an getting old:)

Enough of this now, back to the tropics...
: MichaelSTL i this for got he now as 2 id if you 2 have ban 1 of his id you have to ban him form his 2 nd one as well
It looks like he stole ALL of hurricanechaser's photos. Link
Which is the other one?
HEY THATS FRAUD AND THEFT!!! REPORT HIM PLEASE!!!
Wow, vandalize, much?
He may not have a blog but he has EMAIL
heer is 2nd id i found it ncforecaster's
Where did Hurricanechaser go?? and who is this huricanechaser????
Have you flagged his posts in here (as we can't ban him or remove them ourselves, unless five of us flag them)?
Ok David I'm right on it.

Ive flagged all of them
ah thought there was already that identity.
674. Alec
Copying someone's photos and stealing a name the way he did is the first step to him getting arrested(if he did it in real life)...
I flagged him. of course!
David, I don't think that huricanechaser is the same person as hurricanechaser and ncforecaster.
now it look like he as 3 ids get lot you jackass huricanechaser or what evere id you have now
678. code1
The more you respond, the more Jeff does. Always has, always will. Just spam every post he makes like that. Believe me, admin knows all about him. His Dad will stop it tomorrow. Don't feed him!!
someone fill me in, whats going on?
ITS NOT JEFF!! HE'S TONY'S FRIEND. ITS A RANDOM IDIOT THAT HATES TONY, MAYBE REDHEDFRED
MichaelSTL oh whats you mean you sure about how mean i think he this did that new id so the one of his older ids got in ban i think he got around the ban so that why he has a new id so he can post in yoour own blogs and kill them well not going to work
HURICANECHASER IS PRETENDING TO BE TONY (HURRICANECHASER) AND IS ATTACKING EVERYONE'S BLOG. YOU NEED TO BAN THE IDIOT FROM YOUR BLOG!
good advice Code...everyone calm down and ignore him...he will be gone soon enough...
he didnt attack mine, theres no reason to i geuss-lol im the neutral zone
Yes, I noticed that he even posted in hurricanchaser's blog.

By the way, I havn't seen any new posts from him for awhile now; maybe he is already gone or has been caught.
Wabit, he's an idiot, that's the point. He is comitting illegal acts and spamming the site with trash.
that nut cam to my blog and said some in i did not like
Its a good movie. Nothing wrong with being older either actually things only get better.

Anywho shes firing back up again. Perhaps a lot of it didnt go poof. It got much closer to fla.
No he probably left. No need for him to do anything else, he's had his fun.
He just insulted me through email.
btw, this isnt the boldman jeff, right?
692. code1
atmos, you have a lot to learn about Jeff. He is no one's friend. That is the way he has always acted and done. It's him!
save every letter
WHY WOULD IT BE JEFF. HE CERTAINLY WOULDNT INSULT ME, HE LIKS ME.
atmos...
yes I know what he is doing...no use to get upset about it... Aaron will find out about it when he reads his mail when he comes in...
he insult me on my blog what all take this talk on to aron blog then he come out and put a storm to this tell aron evere thing he dos in his blog what e mails and so on right on his blog so he can see them
Why wabit, HE INSULTED ME.
I know, hes my good friend also. Its just i only know 2 jeffs here.
I remember getting an email from somebody called imtherealboldman or something like that; I don't remember exactly what it said, but it was not nice (several months ago).
700. code1
C'mon guys!!! Even if you are close to his age, don't act it!! You are all doing exactly what he feeds on. Grow up!
Well it isnt theboldman, its someone who doesn't like Tony, maybe RedHedFred.
Is he still here?
must wait before blaming someone else...
: whitewabit look what he said to me and Alec
easy David...he doesn't seem to be around right now...lets everyone go on with the bloging!!!
whitewabit ok sorry all for my bad words did not mean to do that
I think ST took some extended leave, haha
Even though this is slightly more entertaining than the storm dont worry about it - a record of every transaction is stamped, numbered, dated, referenced, coded, and everything else then saved by the ISPs. Its ridiculous. Its ignorant to do anything like that over the internet against a commercial site. With all the silly laws and anti terrorism surveillance stuff. He was probably even at home. Total idiot.
There should be clouds moving over Florida now from this looks like on the IR.
lol Aaron will have fun email the Internet Server Provider with all the threat reports. >:D
yes it will are you sure this is jeff
hmmm seems alot is going not just in the tropics but in the blog
Actually its not coming back, its still just that one piece that came off. We will get rain but it will be here way sooner, like Saturday and wont last as long as they said. They put out that coastal warning.

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1150 PM EDT FRI JUN 23 2006

Coastal Fla.

NOW...
THROUGH 6 AM...SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL MOVE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST AROUND 17 MPH. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE COAST
AND PRODUCE A BRIEF DOWNPOUR. WHILE ANY COASTAL COMMUNITY FROM
ORMOND BEACH TO JUPITER INLET MAY SEE A SHOWER...THE BEST CHANCE WILL
BE ALONG THE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COASTLINE. THE SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN
AS THEY MOVE INLAND BUT A COUPLE SHOWERS MAY REACH DELAND...SANFORD
AND ORLANDO BEFORE DISSIPATING.

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook 1030 PM EDT FRI JUN 23 2006

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS IS NOT SHOWING SIGNS OF DEVELOPING AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
SYSTEM DRIFTS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
the swirl i talked about earlier is starting to affect palm beach. it has growing tstorms involved with it.
716. MahFL
I see the floater moved the Low center to the NE of where it was earlier.
Link
718. MahFL
You have to click the box marked "fronts", to see the L on the map, just for those that are not familiar with th floater.
check out the GFDL up top
WELL DEFINED LAND BREEZE FRONT
has penetrated 70 miles into the Gulf of Mexico from the Florida Peninsula..The front is accompanied by strong thunderstorms with high tops..These storms have likely broken the mid level dry air cap and are feeding moisture to the upper levels..I believe this may signaling the begining of the rainy season,,or at least a tempory relief from the drought...
The nocturnal Gulf stream thundeshowers are numerous tonight,,likely aided by the weak low over the northern Bahamas..It appears the stable air over Florida is becoming unstable..
If the Bahamas low should aid in a healther sea breaze front tommorow..providing rain mostly inland,,during the day,,with shaowers over the coastal areas in the morning.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=tbw&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no
A WESTERN ATLANTIC 1013 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
NEAR 27N75W. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM THIS LOW CENTER TO
NORTHWESTERN HAITI. THIS WHOLE FEATURE IS ACCOMPANIED BY
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR 25N75W...ABOUT 50 NM
EAST OF ELEUTHERA ISLAND IN THE BAHAMA ISLANDS.
Evening all. Watch the convectin near the center. It looks like all of the dry air is a little further away from the center now also. It should also be nearing some very warm water.

Back to bed
SJ
Any predictions on whats going to happen with the low near the Bahamas?
724. MahFL
TD or weak TS moving over central Florida is my guess.
I am having a hard time seeing any LLC in this system attm. All the convection and moisture seems to be circulating around the ULL center. Also, the ULL seems to be getting embedded in a larger ULH, and the dry air is starting to get mixed out of the center.

It is not that unusual for an ULL to transition to a tropical system under favorable conditions such as this. The convection and moisture must wrap aound the ULL and mix out the dry air, while forming an ULH around the periphery. Development of such systems is usually slow.

This scenario would explain the inversion of the usual diurnal max in convection observed with this system over the past two days. We have seen peaks in convection during the solar heating max in the afternoon , instead of late night/early morning hours, which can be explained by the instabilty caused by heating of the surface and lower atmosphere in the vicinity of the ULL.

Unless the daytime reveals another LLC in the visible satellite loops, this is my best explanation for what we are seeing tonight. The transition from cold core to tropical system would likely be slow, and may not be completed unless this system makes its way into the Gulf of Mexico, depending on the speed and the eventual track.

The Tropical weather discussion
NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 am EDT Sat Jun 24 2006 states
[...]
"a western Atlantic 1013 mb surface low pressure center is near 27n75w. A surface trough runs from this low center to northwestern Haiti. This whole feature is accompanied by a middle to upper level low center near 25n75w...about 50 nm east of Eleuthera island in the Bahama Islands."

So the supposed LLC and the ULL are closely aligned, and I think it a distinct possibility that the ULL will begin to transition to a warm core system. Whether it has time to complete the transition before landfall is unknown, but will depend on the forward speed and eventual track.

Perhaps a Jeanne or Frances track is my outlook
Evening again.. Did not head back to bed quite yet.

guygee-If it happens to start making that N ward turn in the middle of the Gulf Stream it could get interesting as those temps are well over 82. It is also just getting over some warmer water now. And like you mentioned the mositure is trying to work its way in a little better.

SJ
For those that have not seen.
StormJunkie.com-imagery, models, marine data, storm video and much more.

SJ
some convection forming on southeast side. thunderstorm in flagler beach. dry air seems to be disappearing. might rain at my house a little northeast of orlando. would like to see another alberto. great storm for us here.
pressure 28.89 and falling in orlando.
ahem, 29.89.
733. IKE
System in the Bahamas is really fighting it. Maybe conditions are more favorable when it gets close to eastern Florida? It's probably got another comeback in it...these systems do that some times.
good morning.....looks like the blob is still around but the good news is it did not develop overnight.
I guess there is still a chance that something could develop tomorrow morning or monday morning but being so close to land will limit that. Glad this is not August or September......
still plenty of warm water off SE SC/NC for this storm to work with should it turn NW
737. IKE
If it's going to develop...it's got about 24-36 hours left to do it....before it hits Florida or further north. Looking at computer models this morning on the FSU sight...most of them have IT crossing Florida and sitting over the Florida panhandle...southern Alabama...SW GA. area. Then it gets shunted north/northeast.

Pressures in the Bahamas are low...couple of spots down to 29.82.

Wonder if they'll cancel the recon??
good point cane....it also greatly depends on the path......
I am still glad this is not august or september... LOL
i hope they do not cancel the recon ike....that is the best way to get info. I think they will do it "just in case"
741. IKE
K8eCane...don't think it's gonna turn that far north before hitting land. It probably gets up to the Carolinas as a good rainmaker though...which is probably all this amounts to anyway...droughtbuster.
742. IKE
Looking at the visible floater loop...looks like it's headed for east central Florida...
yeah i agree ike....does not look like it is moving real fast either....that could help with development in the warm water over the next 24 to 48 hours.
also looks like south east florida could be getting some much needed rain later this morning . Link
745. IKE
Yeah...I was just looking at the Florida east coast radars...rain is on the way..rotating around the "low"/"blob"/ULL...
746. IKE
This pretty well explains it..from the morning Orlando discussion..."Sun-Mon...
T-wave will continue to work its way around the western periphery of the
Atlantic ridge and should keep the Florida Peninsula under its influence through
the period. The wave will push across the S Florida Peninsula on sun then
into Georgia/Alabama on Monday as it merges with the frontal trough draped over the
middle Atlantic/lower MS valley regions.


A small but noteworthy h50 vorticity maximum over the northern Bahamas is on the
front side of the T-wave's main h50 circulation center. This vorticity
should loop around the base of the circulation...then up the southeast
coast and into the Carolinas through the period as the wave pulls into
GA/al. The position of the vorticity combined with east/southeast flow on the
backside of the wave axis should provide sufficient h50 positive vorticity advection sun/Monday
to go with likely probability of precipitation areawide. Diurnal temperatures will be within 5f
degree of climatology avgs."

747. IKE
Looks like rain for Florida, Alabama and GA...good news!
more convection to the north and even a little in the western side. dry air looking better. ?

dry air over florida is gone, should we see a typical afternoon t-storm, seabreeze fronts?
speaking of sea breeze.....has anyone noticed that the "normal" afternoon showers have been very sparce this year in Florida? any thoughts on why?
they've been of and on ever since the bad drought in 1998 it seems. the fires around here were bad. ormond/flagler went up in flames.
Small rotation off the coast of Palm Beach County, one of the many small voticies that have been associated with this storm. Looks like it has more convection at the center than BB does lol.
The NHC will most likely cancel the recon mission for today due to the lack of deep convection with the Bahama system...
Mostly High Pressure South Beach Dude and stronger that normal easterlies that kept most of what did form well inland.
I would think so also getreal, not much with this system. No action during the diurnal max, what you see is what it will be through south, central Florida.
surf has been up for june. 2-3 feet+ at ponce inlet most days the last few weeks. 1-2 foot elsewhere except other breaks. onshore winds 90% of the time. decent surfing. should be 2-3+ today.
Just an observation... I live on the west side of Orlando. Last night there was one storm cell in the whole sky. This is very odd for Florida! I looked like a Super Cell but much smaller, but there looked to be rotation even. Just not a tipical florida storm. The wierd thing about it was besides the mini super cell look, is that I was setting up my camera to take my tipical lightning shots of it and poof it was gone!! I mean this cell was very active with lightning and all but when I finally got to my position with my camera on my roof, the dang thing just disipated! I mean I would have had some wonderful shots but no go?

Was this the same thing that happened to the blob last night? The dry air just sucked it up?
Yeah ProgP I also belive that the models have been initializing this system to far to the north. In my opinion, the weak surface low center is now nearly over Eleuthera Island. The system will remain very weak and continue on a more westerly coarse, making landfall somewhere between Miami and W. Palm Beach.
758. IKE
Maybe the GFS is right and it gets slightly ignited on Florida's west coast then turns North with the trough aapproaching.
There are alot of mini vorticies with this storm were drying up before they made the coast, one must have made it on the coast last night. There is one on the Palm Beach County coast right now. Has it's own rotation and convection.
convection is following the low. TD by the time it hits the coast. landfall around the cape.
I was thinking Stuart to Melbourne and the LLC and the Mid/Upper low are about 1 degree apart, visible on satalite. It may fire up some more rain when it hits the gulfstream but I don't think a TD, marginal at best.
Today's Question"

What years did the name "Ana" occured as a named Atlantic Storm?

Leave comments at my blog or email me the answer.
The surface low is further to the south, check out the low level wind flow map...Link
The surface low is now located just off the north coast of Great Abaco in the Bahamas. TRhe mid-upper low is still out off Eleuthera. One small vortice right off Palm Beach County right now.
PP...you getting anything from that one yet?
Melbourne radar: Link
Large burst of convection off West End. Hope we get that one in FL>
POSSIBLE SURFACE CIRCULATION NORTH OF GRAND BAHAMA..
bouy 41010 wind NE 8nts
bouy 41009 wind N 7kts
spgf1 (Gran Bahama) wind W 6kts
These stations are far from land mass,,so the winds should be true,,with no land breeze interation.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/Maps/Florida.shtml
768. IKE
But the highest wind at any reporting station in the Bahamas is 7 mph...
This surface low looks to be heading almost due west right now. If it continues that would bring that little bud right in between Stuart and Ft. Pierce. Bring the rain with you please!
My pressure has dropped over night slightly. Now at 1011mb. Basically calm winds here in Stuart and no rain yet.
771. IKE
Looking at those buoys...there's definitely a low out there with the different wind directions. Should go in north of the northern Bahamas....between Melbourne and Daytona Beach???
The way it's headed right now....on that track it won't make it further north than Vero before being on land.
Kind of reminds me of Jeanne in 04 but of course jeanne was a monster in September but very unpredictable. http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at200410.asp
Hello Ike,
Yes the winds are very weak thruout the region..However these light winds hint at a closed surface low,North of Grand Bahahama..
The only thing I can think of that may be causing local wind direction varients,,is the difference in water temperature between the Gulf Stream and slightly coolers waters North east of the Bahamas. This may cause a local East and Northeast wind indicated at the Northern 2 buoys..As the atmosphere heats,,and the wind remains E and NE it will be a more definite indicator of a surface low.
Bob
000
ABNT20 KNHC 240902
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SAT JUN 24 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE EXTREME NORTHERN BAHAMAS HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI

cyclone buster what do u have with tunnels?
HillsboroughBay....That particular discussion is five hours old. The LLC is not East of the Bahamas...it is now off the north coast of Grand Bahama Island and headin just slightly north of west.
Link
we have 2 invest in the atlantic
779. PBG00
Mornin all,,icky day here..gonna get some good thunderstorms from our blob
Yah, another is at about 35 and 50. The models are picking up another one near the Antilles later but not invest 92.
Not the Antilles....north of PR. Sorry.
Models: Link
The spin off of PB County has winds NE over the treasure coast and westerly over PB County. Definitely a circulation.
PBG-would you mind sending that rain down the SE coast when you're done with it? My grass and new landscaping could really use some of what you're going to get.
The CMC, GFS, and NOGAPS all show something developing to the north of the ANtilles and then heads about northwest towards CApe Cod, Massachusetts. The CMC has it quite strong, but NOGAPS and GFS have it weakened before hitting land. Too far out to tell though. Check by my blog and read the next best-selling book - Global Canes/the Atlantic Bomb.
take a look at this.
786. PBG00
No prob Oakland..I have a feeling we will get more than enough to share!
where did 92L come from its looking good
What is that, weather456? Or atleast Where is that?
789. PBG00
Is that what the models have moving towards mass later in the week?
Link to 92L
92L is an upper level low that is cenetered near 32N, 47W. Some thunderstorms are around the low and it is slowly moving west. Some computer models suggest that thunderstorms will become more concentrated around the low over time and a transition to a tropical cyclone is possible into next week
so ? dos any of you think TD2 and TD3 is on the way and would any one be flying in to what my become TD3 today or some in
Little spurts of rain Randrewl nothing big though, just another day in the neighborhood.
what's up eveyone? First time posting this season, been a lurker for the past few weeks.

What is up with the new 91l invest? Is it further east than the previous blob??
If the ULL can put it's pants on today, I think the gulfstream will give it a slim chance at best TAZ.
92L invest is furthur east rescueguy.
Looks like the models are starting to agree. Rain for Jacksonville!
91L is over the Bahama's right now
There is however, mid and low level wind markers popping up on the floater in the west and southwest quadrant of the ULL
God....ProgressivePulse .....I haven't had the first drop of rain yet!
92L is very far north for anything to develop this time of year... However, it does have a whole lot of vigorous T-storms popping around its center, so if the surface temps are warm enough it could have a chance.
Don't think I would waste the money on a flight out there though.
Wow two invests at the same time in the Atlantic! Things are heating up out there.
The surface low is still tracking west. This is going to bring it right onshore between Stuart and Ft. Pierce. I have not seen any variance yet all morning. Thu mid-upper low is just now at the NE coast of Eleuthera. I can't see any new convection around this area yet. Doesn't appear right now that anything is changing there yet!
Starting to take on shear from the NW as the cloud tops build
Doesn't look right now like we'll get any recon on 91 Invest today. There's really nothing to investigate. They'll probably be cancelling that flight.
Today's Question"

What years did the name "Ana" occured as a named Atlantic Storm?

Leave comments at my blog or email me the answer.
You should see some rain in the near future Randrewl, decent sized cell building off the coast.
I see no place is safe from the HA HA! guy.

Anyway, what is a "fish storm"?

91L is really looking bad but 92L looks better organize.....and its too north to develop regardless of SST

Hurricane venice October
Hurricane epsilon November-December
Tropical storm zeta and delta Novmeber
Unname subtropical storm October

so june is not a problem for this to develop.
Hey all.. very new to the blogging here.
I know the current model are track,the system isn't even where the models place it and its not moving where they show it,though I am VERY glad thats the case we need another big rain even here
and is not too north*
i see TD2 coming out of this system soon.
dnalia...a fish storm is when it stays out to sea, and never makes landfall.
816. WSI
Welcome fire635!
817. PBG00
Bring on the rain
ProgressivePulse.....I keep seeing all that rain just moving into PB County. Once it gets dry like this in Martin County...rain is just repelled! Takes a serious low to get anything happening. This little surface low is probably not going to have enough energy to bring much relief here.
hello
I dunno Fire, the dry air coming in from the south might kill it, past hour or so midlevel winds are almost non existiant now.
I think it will not become tropical because of the wind shear
Yeah that too: Shear, dry air and a weak system hummm I think we may be bidding a fond farewell to this one in the near future
mornin everybody, with a steady diet of dry air, don't see anything developing here....

my grass does need watering, so can you please turn this, whatever it is, towards myrtle beach! :)

check back later to see what ya'll have come up with! :)
That about sums this one up!
i evere one that new i am taz welcome to the blogs

there is one name on her you sould no about huricanechaser this is jelff he is 15 and he been tell not to come back on her and he is so if you see him this tell him to go a way

well welcome to the blog
We need the rain here (Ft. Myers area). Alberto was a dud. They forecast 5-8 inches and we got at most 1-2. We are on well water, so it's critical we get the mid-hawthorn aquifer up to normal in the next 5 months... Here's hoping for lots of TS's and few Hurricanes this season... We have had enough thesse past two years!
827. IKE
TWO MISSIONS SCHEDULED FOR 24/1800Z AND 25/1200Z WERE
CANCELLED BY NHC AT 24/1345Z.


They have one planned tomorrow at 28.5 north and 80.5 west.
Recon flight today has been cancelled! Unless something goes crazy with invest 91...it's pretty much done.
so whats talk about 92L now looking happy today
why they cancelled ike
They have one planned tomorrow at 28.5 north and 80.5 west.
These coordinates are basically Melbourne Florida!
Good morning all. The blob does not look very good to day. Looks like the only chance it will have to make TD is if it really picks up some energy over the Gulf Stream.

Like Taz said, welcome to all the new folks in here. If you hve not seen, you can find all of the models, imagery, and, other data that you need to understand the state of the tropics at StormJunkie.com

Thanks all.
SJ
StormJunkie what you think about 92L its looking well today
834. IKE
System is too weak. Just bring the rain with it please.

Maybe it makes a comeback tonight and in the morning.
Howdy SJ
836. PBG00
You are a shameless plugger S J LOL!
Hi all and good morning, my blog is updated.
hi sj, u get my mail?
Morning Turtle
so we got an area of scattered rain and a fish storm. seems lame but, its hyper active for june
: turtlehurricane you may want to talk about 92L on your blog and web site
842. PBG00
I'll take the rain..just a bit worried about later in the season if this is any indication.
im gonna wait till it forms to put it on hurricane warning. theres not enough info on it now anyways.
pbgoo, it is absolutely not an indicator so dont worry
To the beach! lol.
: turtlehurricane ok but what you make of it and where did that come from
it came from an upper low that was cut off from the jet stream, it may form but, its a classic fish storm unless it can get the canadian maritimes.
Melbourne's my home, so I'll try to get some pics of the recon plane tommarrow, seen them fly over before & I imagine that in this little low they will be flying quite low.

I still like the east central fl area & south to Vero as a where 91L will go. Adjusting the strength back down 5% chance of a TS, maybe a TD, probibly just rain. The 2-4 inches the GFS is calling for maybe right on if it fattens up on the gulf stream & comes ashore during the afternoon. We will probibly see less though.
849. PBG00
Off Topic) Does anyone know how to edit their name(Handle)? I have got to get rid of the 00
You know darn well now that everyone thinks BB is going by the wayside, it will form and make us all look bad, lol.
Not sure PBG00, send a message to Dr. Masters, he should be able to help you.
Skyepony.....The surface low is coming onshore in a few hours between Stuart and Ft. Pierce. The actual location of the surface low is just to the north and west of West End. Not north of there like it might appear on satellite. The upper low is still working around Eleuthera and does not seem to be going anywhere very fast. Any recon for tomorrow will most likely be cancelled unless something weird happens today and tonight.
Interesting note on the NOGAPS model. Appears to be a bit of weather popping up on the Yucatan later!
Link
853. IKE
Looks like it's headed for central Florida.
PBG~ Aaron, the developer's blog is a better place to ask, better yet would be Taz. He gets into fits of changing his handle like a shirt:).

PP that's what I hope for. BB probibly dried up because I cleaned out the canal yesterday. Let's all write it off & maybe it'll gather some strength from the gulf stream & suprise us.
IKE....I know it looks that way. But the actual surface low is south of there close to West End. Hard to tell because there really is not much to look at.
856. PBG00
Thanks..Don't want to change it just edit it.
I hope its headed for central florida. I live on the west coast in pasco... the rain would be a welcome sight. (hopefully the heating of our state will boost the thunderstorm activity too)
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT JUN 24 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST NORTHEAST OF GREAT
ABACO ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY ARE POORLY ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THIS
SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED FOR TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELED. ANOTHER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...IF
NECESSARY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT
900 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA. SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN
859. IKE
I see a center at about 28N, 77W...moving west.

skyepony....the GFS initializes it in 6 hours, close to the Florida east coast and crosses it into the gulf as a 1012 mb low. I still contend it will do that then turn north to northeast.

Will it ever amount to anything?? Doubt it...but I'm like you..it may surprise everybody and make a comeback tonight. That's what Alberto taught me. These things have a life of their own.
860. IKE
That new invest is a fish storm...as stated by others on here. I agree.
861. IKE
Apparently the NHC hasn't written it off either.
the strom look's like its getting better then last three hour ago
863. WSI
Morning all. Looks like that system is still trying to fight the dry air. I still don't expect much from this. Maybe a depression, but I don't even give that much of a chance at this point.


weathercore.com has many model links, maps, and other weather information. Look for a new section to be added this weekend or early next week. I think many of you will like it.

864. L5
Fleet numeric needs to be a bit ahead of the forecast curve as they have operating interests for planning that need longer timetables.
865. WSI
Guess it helps if I use a . instead of a ,


weathercore.com
I think it is starting to get a little moisture around the core (I wouldn't call it an eye)...I wouldn't write this one off yet. :)
Off Topic) Does anyone know how to edit their name(Handle)? I have got to get rid of the 00

You can't change your handle.
I am surprised that the SHIPS model (on the map in the header) forecasts it to reach nearly 50 mph in four days, given its appearance. Most other models do not really show much (my blog has several models on it, as well as a satellite animation). The forecast storm in the central Atlantic (unrelated to either 91L or 92L) looks more interesting, as well as what the NOGAPS has over the Yucatan/Gulf.
91L probably missed its chance, but 92L looks practically subtropical. I'd say 30/60% chances of developing, respectively.
the bottom of the storm core show its getting more moisture
Dr. Masters has a new blog up; he mentions three of the systems that I have in my blog (the Invests and forecast development east of 91L), except for the NOGAPS forecast for a Gulf system.
if it stays away from the florida shore long enough, i see a TD coming soon. The center is looking a "little" better organized.
Wow, I just realized how high the enviornmental pressures are around 92L. It's inside the 1024(!)mb isobar of the Azores High, so the listed 1019mb on NRL is actually pretty strong.
It is unfortunate that the more important part of Dr. Master's current entry is almost being overlooked. This little disturbance will quickly come and go but the reference to the New York Time's Article is much more ponient.

This information has been around for over two decades but the public is only now becoming interested. The FEMA Coastal Construction Manual was first published in 1981. FEMA information on Safe Rooms has been around almost as long. Unfortunately our state and local officials continue to require only bare minimum building codes for high hazard areas (Miami/Dade and South Florida excepted).
Question of the Day.
In what years did the name "Ana" was assigned to tropical sytems in the Atlantic.
Afternoon all

The ULL looks like it is about to cut off the dry air that has been intruding from the south and the dry air on the NNE looks like it s also getting cutoff. If this happens there is an outside chance that it gets over those warmer Gulf Stream waters and becomes TD2. Where exactly a center would form out of what is left of this thing, I have no idea. The NWS no longer even has the low on the floater maps.

Anywho for those who have not seen you can find all of the models, imagery, marine data, and much more at StormJunkie.com. There is also some great Wilma video from a couple of the WU bloggers.

SJ
StormJunkie - I am seeing the same thing as you are: the dry air is getting mixed out.

From what I am seeing, the situation with the "Bahama Blob" has changed significantly over the past two days. Formerly there was a well-defined wave axis that was being blocked by a high to the NW, and barely surviving intense shear as it spun out dieing surface vortices to the west. Now, what I see is that the ULL is the main center of circulation at the mid-levels, coming down broadly to the lower-levels, and there is not yet any significant tight low-level circulation. The ULL is transitioning slowly from a cold core to a warm core system. The system cannot develop much until that transition is complete. If the transition takes place before landfall, we could see some strengthening, but it seems that there may not be enough time for significant strengthening if the system makes landfall in FL, unless it slows down. So I think it is worthwhile watching this system, with an eye on the center of the ULL. How quickly the dry air gets mixed out and the convection wraps totally around this center will determine its speed of development.

That is my view on what we have been watching.
lol... My gut is still saying this won't be anything but a rain event. Not even minimal winds.