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Bahamas disturbance 95L could become tropical depression; Lupit spares Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:03 PM GMT on October 23, 2009

An area of disturbed weather over the central Bahama Islands associated with a surface trough of low pressure has been designated Invest 95L by NHC this morning, and has the potential to become a tropical depression on Saturday. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a large, disorganized circulation in the region, and recent satellite loops show a modest and slowly increasing amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. Wind shear over the system was a prohibitively high 30 knots last night, but has fallen dramatically to just 10 knots this morning, and is expected to remain in the moderate range, 10 -15 knots, through Sunday. There is a large region of dry air to the west of 95L, and this dry air is interfering with development. This system is expected to move west-northwest and be near Miami on Saturday night, then potentially turn northwards towards South Carolina. It is unlikely that 95L has enough time to grow to more than a minimal tropical storm with 45 mph winds. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is on call to investigate the system Saturday afternoon, if necessary.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 95L.

Typhoon Lupit spares the Philippines
Tropitcal Storm Lupit has weakened and turn northward, out to sea, sparing the storm-ravaged Philippine Island of Luzon from further misery. Lupit never made landfall and the heaviest rains stayed out to sea, with rainfall amounts from the typhoon generally ranging from 1 - 2 inches over northern Luzon Island. Lupit means "cruel" in Tagalog, one of the main languages of the Philippines, but Lupit was primarily cruel in a psychological sense, keeping jittery residents on edge for days as the storm slowly approached. Luzon is still recovering from the destruction wrought by back-to-back typhoons Ketsana and Parma, which killed 860 people and did $642 million in damage.

The road to Copenhagen
By some accounts, the future of the world will be at stake this December, when the crucial U.N. Climate Change Conference will be held December 7 - 18 in Copenhagen, Denmark. At that meeting, the leaders of the world will gather to negotiate an agreement to replace the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. The new agreement will be the world's road map for dealing with climate change, and the stakes are huge. In the coming weeks, major efforts will be made by both sides of the debate to sway public opinion on climate change. Opponents of CO2 emission regulations made their case last weekend, with the release of the video, Not Evil, Just Wrong. Billed as the largest simultaneous film premiere party in U.S. history, the movie aired on 7,000 screens in 50 states. The movie was originally intended to be released at major theaters throughout the U.S., but Hollywood showed insufficient interest in the film. The producers were forced to release the movie on video and hold private "movie parties" for its opening. The movie fiercely attacks Al Gore, and decrys "the true cost of global warming hysteria" on jobs and the economy.

This Sunday, the green lobby is fighting back. The newly-formed climate advocacy group 350.org is sponsoring 4,517 actions in 173 countries. The group is seeking to promote the views of leading climate scientists, including NASA's Dr. James Hansen, that the highest "safe" level of CO2 in the atmosphere is 350 ppm--lower than the current 388 ppm, and far below the target value of 450 ppm typically cited as the "danger" level for atmospheric CO2. The plan is to have thousands of citizens making giant human 3s in some cities, 5s in others, and 0s in others--a sort of planet-scale Scrabble game that they hope CNN and BBC will try to solve for them on the evening news. There will be underwater rallies on the Great Barrier Reef in Australia and in the Middle East off the coast of Oman. Over 300 land-based rallies will be held in China, and 1,000 in the U.S.

With tropical season winding down, I plan to make regular posts over the next six weeks analyzing the scientific claims of efforts by the green lobby and the fossil fuel industry and its allies to win your hearts and minds in the run-up to the December 7 conference in Copenhagen. My first post in this series will look at 350.org's claim that 350 ppm of CO2 represents the danger level for CO2 in the atmosphere. I'll also look at an audacious TV ad that boldly asserts that more CO2 in the atmosphere is better for Earth's ecosystems.


Figure 2. Competing for your hearts and minds: Cover of the DVD Not Evil, Just Wrong (left), and a promotional image from the http://www.350.org web site (right), showing children in India spelling out the number "350" to promote a 350 ppm target for CO2 levels in the atmosphere.

Next post
Well, I must admit to not being on the ball with this one--the sudden development of 95L caught me by surprise. I'll make another post this afternoon if the system shows significant development.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

So you are back earlier than expected I see.

Thanks for the update Dr Masters!
That has to be the shortest period between blog posts that I've seen on the Doc's blog... and it seems the Doc and I agree that this is not likely to be much of a wind storm.
I think the only model calling for this a few days ago was NAM. I could be wrong though...
TD by Saturday ?. That would be quick given the way it looks now.
Wow!
thanks Dr Masters,wonder if that is going to turn into another nor'easter for us up here
From nothing to a borderline tropical storm in a very, very short period of time. Gotta love the tropics.
Quoting kmanislander:
TD by Saturday ?. That would be quick given the way it looks now.
Prolly because the forecast is calling for it to go up the Gulf Stream.
Actually, I think the low offshore Nicaragua is looking interesting today. Although the coverage is small the thunderstorm acitivty is focused right over the area of lowest pressure and Bluefields just to the S on the coast has a West wind.

If the ULL over Jamaica lifts out of the way who knows ?.
LOL, so we were all sort of caught "off guard" I saw those clouds off over Bahamas but I was looking in the Caribbean for swirls in that area! LOL

Hope this system gives us in SE Florida nothing but some nice gentle rain...
..Yawn,,,stretch,..yes another coffee dear,TYVM
Thanks Dr. Wow.....From nothing for seven days in the models this am to a possible TD in the Bahamas. The CIMSS chart is still showing sheer in the range of 30-40 knots which is what I relied on this am.
Quoting StormW:
Thanks again Jeff!

Morning gang!
95L is in a TUTT axis at the moment. Probably won't see too much out of it until the upper pattern shifts.

RAMSDIS has it centered near 22N;75.5W
That sounds about right. And it does seem to be moving west at a fair pace. It would be nice to have the models accurately predict one weak storm this season.
Wow...that was quick...

from the prior blog:

Thanks to everyone with their advice on my first fishing/real boat experience (hopefully) coming up on Sunday morning. I will certainly be sure to take wind direction into account if I do get sick! :-P

Course, if the Doc is right in saying thre could be a tropical depression near Miami on Saturday night, that could definitely put a damper on my trip. We'll see what happens. Worst case scenario...I sit inside and watch football. I can think of worse things!
I do not see how this can be a threat to anyone...

will not that cold front pushing thru lift up this storm and scoot it out to sea?

I mean, isn't that front going to push all the way thru central and south Fla?
kman, I don't think one can put that area completely out of mind. I still believe whatever else we get this season named-storm-wise is most likely to come out of that area (95L notwithstanding).
never mind, I don't think a cold front is coming in my direction anytime soon, our 5 day forcast just shows increasing temps each day.. not any lowering of temps in the next week.
Geeez, the trolls will have plenty to play with--when they get out of school! Thanks for the "heads up" Dr. Masters.
Quoting seflagamma:
I mean, isn't that front going to push all the way thru central and south Fla?


Here is the thinking from the NHC

Quoting seflagamma:
I do not see how this can be a threat to anyone...

will not that cold front pushing thru lift up this storm and scoot it out to sea?

I can't see how the Bahamas can avoid at least some rain from this. I suppose the front is what's supposed to keep it from crossing into the GoM....
TPC is not expecting development at this time.

HIGH SEAS FORECAST


.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST.

.ATLC LOW PRES 1009 MB NEAR 22N75W. FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 55W
AND 77W NE TO E WINDS TO 20 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 25N79W 1009 MB. N OF 25N FROM 65W TO 78W E
TO SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW DISSIPATED COLD FRONT 31N78W TO 28N80W. N
OF 28N E OF FRONT TO 66W S TO SE WINDS TO 20 KT. SEAS TO 8 FT.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Thanks Dr. Wow.....From nothing for seven days in the models this am to a possible TD in the Bahamas. The CIMSS chart is still showing sheer in the range of 30-40 knots which is what I relied on this am.


????

Maybe you mean last night, like doc?

12Z




09Z




06Z




Last night 03Z

Quoting StormW:


You and I see the same thing...planned on putting that in my synopsis. Good eye kman!

Yea...looking at some things, I wouldn't take my eye off that area...yet.


Hi Storm

I don't want to make too much out of that area just yet but thunderstorm activity has been on the increase all morning and as far as I am concerned this is the best that area has looked from inception. In the past all the activity was pretty diffuse with no real concentrated area of convection to speak of.

Anyway, as we know this time of year one looks for persistence so let's see what it looks like 12 hours from now to begin with.

New obs from Puerto Cabezas showing NNW winds @ 9mph there and Bluefields still showing W winds @ 5 mph.

No doubt of a surface low offshore the East coast of Nicaragua.
There's a game in Miami when this thing is supposed to be affecting the area.

Rain rain rain only please! A delay in playing the game does not favor the Dolphins.
thank you Kman and Baha,

so I guess that cold front is not coming thru my area anytime soon...

Oh Baha, I am sure you all may get something from this since it is on your door step right now.

and from Kman's graphic looks like nothing to stop it for next few days.
That 2nd Red X on your chart is my front door! LOL YIKES!!
This is interesting...



1. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS ARE
PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Guess they didn't think much of the weak surface turning at the time....
What's the shear forecast for the Bahama area and east coast
Quoting StormW:


Couldn't agree more!


I just added new obs from Nicaragua to that post. A definite surface low offshore Nicaragua
Quoting CycloneOz:
There's a game in Miami when this thing is supposed to be affecting the area.

Rain rain rain only please! A delay in playing the game does not favor the Dolphins.


LOL,the 5 and 0 Saints playing Sunday at Miami dosent favor them much either,..LOL
Back later
Quoting Patrap:


LOL,the 5 and 0 Saints playing Sunday at Miami dosent favor them much either,..LOL


Do you have a crow / crawfish recipe ready for Sunday PM after the game is over?
Quoting Patrap:


LOL,the 5 and 0 Saints playing Sunday at Miami dosent favor them much either,..LOL


should be a good game, Saints will lose eventually, so why not this week

Best way to beat the Saints is to keep Drew Brees and that offense off the field as much as possible; Miami has a ball control type offense that should be able to do that.
Quoting CycloneOz:


Do you have a crow / crawfish recipe ready for Sunday PM after the game is over?




No,but a Nice Dolphin Gumbo is on the Menu Ozzy.


Overall:
The Saints, one of four unbeaten teams remaining, come in averaging an NFL-high 38.4 points per game. They also lead the league in turnover ratio at plus-9. The Dolphins are still in the middle of the pack at minus-3. This is the first of four rematches against preseason opponents, with the Dolphins winning a 10-7 snoozer on Sept. 3 in the Big Easy. This is just the Saints' third regular-season trip to South Florida and their first since 1980, with the Dolphins winning both previous times
This is one of those backyard burners that we were told to be on the look-out for...

Can't blame Doc for missing it...it's forming way too fast, and in an area that was not conducive to tropical system formation at the time.
Quoting Patrap:




No,but a Nice Dolphin Gumbo is on the Menu Ozzy.


It's going to rain in Miami! This weekend! You seem pretty happy about that, given that the Stains QB and their passing attack will have to deal with that...and the Wildcat formation.
Looks like little pulse of energy moving nw from between Jamaica,Cuba and Haiti might be the energy to get the Bahama system fired up. System of Nicaragua does look better. Is the Tutt in the Caribbean breaking down.
This is now 95L...Again GFS trys to relax 200mb winds for a brief period but development looks unlikely. should get picked up by the trof. Here a quikscat view

Quoting CycloneOz:


It's going to rain in Miami! This weekend! You seem pretty happy about that, given that the Stains QB and their passing attack will have to deal with that...and the Wildcat formation.


Miami's multi-faceted offense drove the Jets and their defensive guru of a coach absolute fits. I want to see how the Saints defense is going to TRY and handle it.
Quoting Patrap:
Overall:
The Saints, one of four unbeaten teams remaining, come in averaging an NFL-high 38.4 points per game. They also lead the league in turnover ratio at plus-9. The Dolphins are still in the middle of the pack at minus-3. This is the first of four rematches against preseason opponents, with the Dolphins winning a 10-7 snoozer on Sept. 3 in the Big Easy. This is just the Saints' third regular-season trip to South Florida and their first since 1980, with the Dolphins winning both previous times


Yeah, I was snoozing when Sean Smith made that sick interception in the end-zone...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZPhVc9sJZcY
I thought all Marines were friends of aquatic animals such as dolphins. I guess there is a exception to everything. At least he knows what city they are playing in.
Quoting Seastep:


????

Maybe you mean last night, like doc?


I read the CIMSS chart this morning but maybe I forgot to hit the "refresh" button. Thought I did......... :)
Ty gordy,..should be a Good game regardless.
Ricky Williams used to be with us,.and well..Ya gotta Love a good game in the weather.
Quoting CycloneOz:
This is one of those backyard burners that we were told to be on the look-out for...

Can't blame Doc for missing it...it's forming way too fast, and in an area that was not conducive to tropical system formation at the time.
Local mets expected the retrograding trough (basically the front that went through here last weekend) but I didn't hear anything abt a potential low with it. This is the general area where Rita and Katrina blew up a few years ago, so formation in this area is not THAT unusual. However, it's also not that common, and really not common at all at this time of year. Usually u get stuff over the ocean to our east instead.
always beware a strong running team...if they get it going it changes the the flow of the game and can prevent big scoring teams from laying it on.
Time to put up the shutters...

Quoting hurricane23:
Time to put up the shutters...



i don't think so...... Just take in those light plastic chairs and take down the Halloween decorations
I wouldn't joke, seeing how many storms as of late have went from zero to hero in less than 24 hours.
Quoting hurricane23:
Time to put up the shutters...

LOL I have a relative trying to close in a roof this weekend... might be a bit of a challenge....
Adrian,

#43 and #52 sound like contridictions?

you said in 43 probably no developement,
and in 52 to "put up the shutters"..

surely you jest but which time? LOL

Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
I wouldn't joke, seeing how many storms as of late have went from zero to hero in less than 24 hours.


Agreed
This mess should merge with approaching cold with no signifcant development.Both NAM and GFS models this morning had a pretty decent increase in moisture for the southeast.
Quoting seflagamma:
Adrian,

#43 and #52 sound like contridictions?

you said in 43 probably no developement,
and in 52 to "put up the shutters"..

surely you jest but which time? LOL



he is being sarcastic and making fun of people on this blog, like he always does

people watch an area of disturbed weather and they analyze it. If he feels it is a waste of time, he will come on here and say something in regards to a CAT 5 hitting Florida
Quoting hurricane23:
Time to put up the shutters...

I would wait a little bit for that. No reason to believe this may become anything significant.
LOL im closing my shutters.. just so I can sleep in! :p
Quoting hurricane23:
This mess should merge with approaching cold with no signifcant development.Both NAM and GFS models this morning had a pretty decent increase in moisture for the southeast.


and when will this "cold" weather arrive????

I do not see any "coolness" in my 5 day forcast or yours...?????



#59, thanks Burned, I am not on this blog that much anymore unless something developes.
Quoting seflagamma:
never mind, I don't think a cold front is coming in my direction anytime soon, our 5 day forcast just shows increasing temps each day.. not any lowering of temps in the next week.


Yeah... local mets last night said the front is going to 'hang-up' in mid to north florida
and not come all the way thru here in So Fla
I think your right about the good game. Because like coach Ditka said about the game with the Jets, when all the other analyst were against the fins, his recollection is its hard to win in Miami. And who can argue with the coach, pass me a beer and a bratwurst.
Quoting seflagamma:


and when will this "cold" weather arrive????

I do not see any "coolness" in my 5 day forcast or yours...?????



#59, thanks Burned, I am not on this blog that much anymore unless something developes.


I doubt it merges with any front, latest forecasts dissipate the front before it reaches Florida

I see absolutely no cool down in the forecast here either
I do not believe it will develope into a hurricane threat... I predicted that last spring.. no hurricanes to hit the CONUS this year.. and I hope I continue batting 1000! :o)


but even a weak TS, we need to prepare for the rain.. which by the way is needed around here again.

got to go again, will check back later.
Let's see if Dr. Masters and the NHC have a consensus at 2:00. If so, then we should see a code orange.
Jeff Masters wrote: I plan to make regular posts over the next six weeks analyzing the scientific claims of efforts by the green lobby and the fossil fuel industry and its allies to win your hearts and minds in the run-up to the December 7 conference in Copenhagen.

I don't think this sort of motive-questioning is productive, Dr. Masters. Not everyone who doubts all the claims of the alarmists or who worries about the effect on developing nations of draconian cuts in energy production is a tool of big oil. This guilt by association argument is inaccurate, unfair, and BTW illogical. Whatever motivations some people may have do not automatically make them wrong; those are separate issues. Darwin was in part motivated by a personal atheistic desire to see God reasoned away. Some of his critics even attacked him on those grounds - "you're just presenting your preferred view of things." The motive accusation may have had merit, but that didn't refute his theory of evolution by natural selection. A theory has to stand or fall on its own, not on the association or motivation of its supporters.

Is William Gray just a shill for big oil? You and he are two of the most prominent hurricane experts out there. Must one of you be a lying tool on the subject on anthropogenic GW, or is it not possible anymore to have an honest scientific disagreement anymore? I don't recall Bohr and Einstein challenging each others' motivations.

Moreover, I think it's incredibly naïve to stick to the assumptions that energy companies are both infinitely evil and infinitely stupid. Energy companies make money selling energy. They aren't wedded for life solely to oil and coal (now, the at-source originators such as OPEC members may have fewer options, but they're a different story). Why was infamous Texas energy company Enron, whose whole existence was founded on a plan for trading energy and pollution credits (a la carbon offsets) the biggest proponent of Kyoto? Why else is oil billionaire T. Boone Pickens aggressively pushing wind farms (sited on TX and OK areas he happens to own, natch)?

So presenting this as a battle between dirty energy companies and clean energy proponents completely misses the point. Energy companies are like lobbyists: they hedge their bets and play both sides of the aisle. They're not going to be caught flat-footed by something that happens in Denmark, which they've had years to prepare for. Half of the barbs aimed at big oil to the delight of the masses are being hurled by the green energy arms of the very same energy conglomerates that own the fossil fuel producing sub-companies. It's like Coke Zero zinging Coke. Obsessing over energy companies is non-productive. They're neither the heroes in their guise of wind supporters nor the villains in their oil selling capacity.

Sorry for the rant, but I can't be the only one this applies to. I work in the health field, not for or with energy in any way. I don't own any energy stocks. I don't have a dog in this fight (except obviously as a concerned inhabitant of Earth). So it gets old hearing that what many of us regard as an honest quest for the correct answer is treated as proof of a shabby motivation on our parts.
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


he is being sarcastic and making fun of people on this blog, like he always does

people watch an area of disturbed weather and they analyze it. If he feels it is a waste of time, he will come on here and say something in regards to a CAT 5 hitting Florida
I don't think the joke was meant as a way of "making fun of pple". It's a running gag, one we've been using in here for literally years. Let me put it another way; 23 has actually lived through the one genuine cat five to hit our area in our generation. When he comes on here genuinely meaning "a cat 5 is coming", I suggest u batten down your house and leave for the hills... preferably along the NE Piedmont somewhere....
No shutters lol just a joke...Might need those next season as things might come together for a interesting season.
391

WHXX01 KWBC 231414

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1414 UTC FRI OCT 23 2009



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952009) 20091023 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

091023 1200 091024 0000 091024 1200 091025 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 22.0N 75.5W 22.9N 76.9W 23.9N 78.4W 25.2N 79.6W

BAMD 22.0N 75.5W 22.7N 76.8W 23.5N 78.4W 24.8N 79.8W

BAMM 22.0N 75.5W 22.8N 77.0W 23.8N 78.7W 25.1N 80.0W

LBAR 22.0N 75.5W 22.5N 76.1W 23.5N 76.9W 24.6N 77.6W

SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 38KTS

DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 33KTS 38KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

091025 1200 091026 1200 091027 1200 091028 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 26.7N 80.6W 29.9N 81.9W 34.3N 78.8W 36.9N 64.7W

BAMD 26.6N 80.2W 32.1N 79.4W 40.3N 72.1W 46.5N 50.2W

BAMM 26.7N 80.7W 30.9N 80.8W 37.6N 76.1W 42.3N 54.6W

LBAR 26.1N 78.1W 28.3N 77.4W 29.5N 75.0W 27.9N 75.0W

SHIP 42KTS 44KTS 34KTS 17KTS

DSHP 32KTS 31KTS 27KTS 0KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 22.0N LONCUR = 75.5W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT

LATM12 = 22.0N LONM12 = 75.5W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 0KT

LATM24 = 22.0N LONM24 = 75.5W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
thanks FlaGator and Burned!

bbl
Quoting BahaHurican:
I don't think the joke was meant as a way of "making fun of pple". It's a running gag, one we've been using in here for literally years. Let me put it another way; 23 has actually lived through the one genuine cat five to hit our area in our generation. When he comes on here genuinely meaning "a cat 5 is coming", I suggest u batten down your house and leave for the hills... preferably along the NE Piedmont somewhere....


He made the sarcastic comment about a CAT 5 just a few weeks ago when people were tracking Henri
Quoting seflagamma:
I do not believe it will develope into a hurricane threat... I predicted that last spring.. no hurricanes to hit the CONUS this year.. and I hope I continue batting 1000! :o)


but even a weak TS, we need to prepare for the rain.. which by the way is needed around here again.

got to go again, will check back later.
Got to be so careful still. Remember Katrina hit S. Fla as a minimal Cat 1 and still caused quite a bit of damage. And then there was Fay.
48. weathermanwannabe - Happens. Thought so. :)
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


He made the sarcastic comment about a CAT 5 just a few weeks ago when people were tracking Henri
We've been making this same joke, about the cat 5 and the shutters, since 2006. It's really not meant as a sarcastic putdown. Just our way of "messing with" each other.
Quoting BahaHurican:
We've been making this same joke, about the cat 5 and the shutters, since 1996. It's really not meant as a sarcastic putdown. Just our way of "messing with" each other.


ok if you say so, I will take your word for it.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Got to be so careful still. Remember Katrina hit S. Fla as a minimal Cat 1 and still caused quite a bit of damage. And then there was Fay.
True dat. I'm still hoping this doesn't get to be more than a few rain showers. Even minimal TS is more wind than I want to deal with this weekend.
Quoting Seastep:
48. weathermanwannabe - Happens. Thought so. :)


It's all good.......Just a wait and watch to see if the disturbance persists through tommorow afternoon and sheer remains low which are both big "ifs" right now.
004

NOUS42 KNHC 231430

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.

1030 AM EDT FRI 23 OCTOBER 2009

SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)

VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z 0CTOBER 2009

TCPOD NUMBER.....09-148



I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

1. SUSPECT AREA BAHAMAS

FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70

A. 24/1800Z

B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST

C. 24/1530Z

D. 25.5N 79.0W

E. 24/1500Z TO 24/2300Z

F. SFC TO 10,000FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK......NEGATIVE.



II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS

1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK......NEGATIVE.

WVW


Good afternoon,

Interesting... this 95L is. I wonder if the trend of a weaker steering will come to fruition as per 12Z GFS as this could indicate some erratic behavior of this system as the FRNT washes out across NCFL/CFL.
77. I MEANT 2006.... lol.... the blog wasn't here in 1996....

There's also the ubiquitous crow, which has not been so much in evidence this year, dunno why, and the flock of seagulls.... what happened to them again?....

Anyhoo, it is possible to have a few moments of frolic here when pple are actually not trying to cut each other's metaphorical throats.... and even to talk abt weather....
Not meaning to change the subject, but has anyone seen what the panel on space flight has recommended?

Damned depressing, if you ask me...we need an Asimov, a Sagan, a couple of Clarkes...someone with eloquence to go after this subject...a mission to Mars is more cost effective than returning to the moon and trying set up shop? Who are these people?
Quoting StormW:
Good afternoon!

TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS / 95L / OCTOBER 23, 2009 ISSUED 12:05 P.M. EDT


Hey Storm........Might want to update the graphic on your synopsis entry...Looks like a cane headed towards the Antilles..
Latest IR on 95L:

BBL, folks.
Quoting seflagamma:
Adrian,

#43 and #52 sound like contridictions?

you said in 43 probably no developement,
and in 52 to "put up the shutters"..

surely you jest but which time? LOL



Gamma i dont see any issues with the disturbed weather across the bahamas. Iam more concerned about a rather stormy winter south florida might experience during the next few months with el nino around. I'll be attending a press conference at my local NWS on october 29th were they are going to be releasing potential impacts from el nino for the region. should be an interesting winter.Bought a few storm surge protectors this summer which might come in handy. Got a nice discount on 600 Watt AVR Backup System which is essential for the pc.

adrian
For those who seem to forget that there is more to Florida than from Orlando south. No doubt the cold front will make it to Florida, just maybe not all of it.



Quoting Floodman:
Not meaning to change the subject, but has abnyone seen what the panel on space flight has recommended?

Damned depressing, iof you ask me...we need an Asimov, a Sagan, a couple of Clarkes...someone with eloquence to go after this subject...a mission to Mars is more cost effective than returning to the moon and trying set up shop? Who are these people?


That entire panel report was a "joke." When I read it, all I could say was WTF? Land on an asteroid? WTH for?

These people are retards.

You go to the moon, you figure out where the H20 is, break it down into air and fuel...and then establish the new frontier there.

Freakin' idiots! They're talking about having to send fuel to the moon! Geez...
Hey Ron!
Quoting CycloneOz:


That entire panel report was a "joke." When I read it, all I could say was WTF? Land on an asteroid? WTH for?

These people are retards.

You go to the moon, you figure out where the H20 is, break it down into air and fuel...and then establish the new frontier there.

Freakin' idiots! They're talking about having to send fuel to the moon! Geez...


It was the most amazing bunch of bean counrter/sci fi crap I have ever heard. We made the huge mistake under Nixon to stop going to the moon and Carter dropped the ball when he could have kicked it back up. The reason for stopping manned flight to the moon was that no one was interested? Who cares? If we had kept up with the plan for the moon we wouldn't be having this conversation right now and the whole plan? Pennies on the dollar for what we'll have to spend now...think about the advances in technology that would have resulted and the decreased cost of flight to Mars from the moon...OMG, who are these idiots?

Sorry, but space exploration is a subject about which I am eloquent and passionate...

If this debate had occured while Asimov, Sagan and Clarke were alive, things might have been different, but we have no strong, eloquent supporters for our side in this debate...what is it going to take?
Howdy, Adrian!
95. 786
I'd have to say ex-94 looks a lot better than 95L, not sure why they took the yellow off when they never expected development until this weekend in the first place! And IMO ex-94 has a better chance at becoming something than 95
With the BAMM suite tightly clustered like they are, it's indicative of a good forecast.
This new system is being hailed as "Tropical Storm Wildcat" for the obvious reasons!!!

GO PHINS!
98. 786
I am sorry but I will have to downcast a bit by saying that if ex-94 does not make it (I still think it may however)in this last surge of MJO, I believe this season is done.
So...if 95L becomes a TS...what will it be named. I've lost track with this slow season.
100. 786
well its Friday and it has made it off the coast and onto water where convection over the low continues to expand...The forecast called for development Sunday or Monday and for the first time we are seeing (as Kman and Storm said) concentrated convection over the low which is a def. step toward some development.
101. 786
Ida (if ex 94 does not develop before)
Can someone please answer this for me. When I look at WV image looks to me like the dry air is being pulled into 95L and away from X94L. Am I seeing this right ?
Thanks for the update on 95L. Is it unusual for the shear to drop that quickly?
Pretty impressive increase in 850 Vort w/ 95L.


68. Thaale 3:52 PM GMT on October 23, 2009

Hear! Hear! It is unfortunate that political rhetoric and posturing has replaced good ole scientific postulates and debate. A lot of reputations are at stake here, thus the mad rush for change and acceptance.
106. amd
Quoting 786:
well its Friday and it has made it off the coast and onto water where convection over the low continues to expand...The forecast called for development Sunday or Monday and for the first time we are seeing (as Kman and Storm said) concentrated convection over the low which is a def. step toward some development.


agreed. for the first time with the system in the sw caribbean, I feel that it actually has a chance to develop.

The big reason is the moving of the upper and mid level anticyclone into the yucatan, and if this anticyclone continues to move east (due to progression of cold front in the se us), the SW and western Caribbean will have a favorable shear pattern.

Also, I suspect once 95L moves away from the TUTT, it will be pulled off quickly to the ne due to the front, which will leave plenty of moisture for the SW Caribbean disturbance to work with.

Finally, due to a steadily increasing El Nino, especially between 160 E and 130 W, I suspect this could be the last chance for development in the Atlantic basin for the 2009 hurricane season. JMHO
Quoting lawntonlookers:
Thanks for the update on 95L. Is it unusual for the shear to drop that quickly?


No, not at all. Shear frequently changes and sometimes quite unexpectedly.
The strongest MJO pulse the Atlantic has ever seen couldn't be any help with the kind of atmospheric conditions that have been in place this year. Unfavorable conditions have been settled in the Western Atlantic basin for how many months now??? The season is OVER. You could have a better chance hitting the lottery than getting another named storm. I think the NHC is bored and 95L is a joke. Going to be under moderate shear of 30kts for the next 36 hrs and then after that it only gets worse with the trough moving off the east coast. It is most likely going to end up 8/2/2 as the storm count for the 2009 hurricane season. The wishcasters will be crying to sleep but folks on the coast are going to love it.


Dry air moving out of the way off SE FL coast.
Tropical Storm W.I.L.D.C.A.T"

Pretty cool, huh?
Damn, I'm going to the Dolphins game on Sunday. NO DEVELOPMENT PLEASE!
Quoting markymark1973:
The strongest MJO pulse the Atlantic has ever seen couldn't be any help with the kind of atmospheric conditions that have been in place this year. Unfavorable conditions have been settled in the Western Atlantic basin for how many months now??? The season is OVER. You could have a better chance hitting the lottery than getting another named storm. I think the NHC is bored 95L is a joke. Going to be under moderate shear of 30kts for the next 36 hrs and then after that it only gets worse with the trough moving off the east coast. It is most likely going to end up 8/2/2 as the storm count for the 2009 hurricane season. The wishcasters will be crying to sleep but folks on the coast are going to love it.


The trough is not going to make it through and is retrograding after 72 hours.


Quoting PcolaDan:
For those who seem to forget that there is more to Florida than from Orlando south. No doubt the cold front will make it to Florida, just maybe not all of it.





Isn't Pensacola and Destin in Alabama?
Quoting Floodman:


It was the most amazing bunch of bean counrter/sci fi crap I have ever heard. We made the huge mistake under Nixon to stop going to the moon and Carter dropped the ball when he could have kicked it back up. The reason for stopping manned flight to the moon was that no one was interested? Who cares? If we had kept up with the plan for the moon we wouldn't be having this conversation right now and the whole plan? Pennies on the dollar for what we'll have to spend now...think about the advances in technology that would have resulted and the decreased cost of flight to Mars from the moon...OMG, who are these idiots?

Sorry, but space exploration is a subject about which I am eloquent and passionate...

If this debate had occured while Asimov, Sagan and Clarke were alive, things might have been different, but we have no strong, eloquent supporters for our side in this debate...what is it going to take?



Flood,we do have a cheerleader on our side,and he's a Heavy

Read this thru..

Mr. President, Will You Lead Us to Greatness in Space?

By Buzz Aldrin

The road map is now complete.
Today the commission formed to provide President Barack Obama with a series of potential pathways to America's future in space has delivered its final report. Officials in the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP, as they say in Washington) received the report from my friend Chairman Norm Augustine, and have begun the formal process of reviewing the analysis it contains.
The plan is for President Barack Obama to select one of the "options" for America's future in space that the plan lays out-or none at all or something else entirely.
lat: 23.50 lon: -75.77 George Town, Exuma, Bahamas Wind: East at 8mph Pressure: 29.84in

lat: 21.07 lon: -75.62 Punta Lucrecia, Holguin, Cuba Wind: West at 9mph Pressure: 29.86in


See "Wundermap"
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Can someone please answer this for me. When I look at WV image looks to me like the dry air is being pulled into 95L and away from X94L. Am I seeing this right ?


Yes and No. Don't want to start an argument. How are you CI??
I'm back. Increasing cloudiness over New Providence now. Still some sun, but lots more fluffy whites than even an hour ago...

Quoting Grothar:


Yes and No. Don't want to start an argument. How are you CI??
I'm pretty good today, you ?
Quoting markymark1973:
The strongest MJO pulse the Atlantic has ever seen couldn't be any help with the kind of atmospheric conditions that have been in place this year. Unfavorable conditions have been settled in the Western Atlantic basin for how many months now??? The season is OVER. You could have a better chance hitting the lottery than getting another named storm. I think the NHC is bored and 95L is a joke. Going to be under moderate shear of 30kts for the next 36 hrs and then after that it only gets worse with the trough moving off the east coast. It is most likely going to end up 8/2/2 as the storm count for the 2009 hurricane season. The wishcasters will be crying to sleep but folks on the coast are going to love it.


30kts of shear is more then moderate if you ask me but according to Doc 10-15 is moderate so I'm not sure where you get your numbers from?
125. 786
amd, yup I think this is it, the final goodbye (although it could end abrubtly as MJ did). If this doesn't make it 2010 it is which will prob. make up for this year with neutral-La Nina conditions.

Def. Going to keep a close eye on ex-94
CaribWx Update, Interim Tropical, Fri23, 6a

TROPICAL FEATURES:
--Upper-TROF/upper-LO drifting WNW over W Bahamas & surface TROF drifting WNW over C Bahamas support squalls to 40k-or-so across E Jamaica / E Cuba / Haiti thru areas 20N-27N from 76W-67W...then milder activity pulled W into N Bahamas around N periphery of upper-LO/TROF...and stronger squalls in a band E-ward along old FrontalTROF near 24N-25N from 70W-55W, with scattered lesser squalls along this Longitude from 22N-28N (within 180mi both sides of FrontalTROF).

--While a few models (including GFS) still predict weak Tropical LO formation in Bahamas, it's much more likely to remain a squally & nasty TROF moving WNW thru Bahamas today, then lifting N from NW Bahamas tomorrow, ahead of a ColdFRONT that stalls over FL & off the SE US Coast Sun25.

(NOTE: the addition of a weak surface LO analyzed at GeorgetownBahamas at 8am based on 6am QuickScat & 8am UofWisc 850mb vorticity...does not change expectation that any LO with Tropical characteristics will be weak...and I will not rework the entire analysis since our forecast for the area allows for the possibility of weak LO.)

* *

--A few models (notably the credible Euro & NOGAPS) also predict a possibly-Tropical-LO forming off SE US Sun25-Mon26 along the FrontalBoundary...passing just S & SE of NewEngland Tue27 as a GALE or a Tropical or semi-Tropical LO.

* *

--Situation in SW Caribbean remains in flux...all of last evening's clustered activity dissipated overnight...new clustered & strong squalls forming just N of C Panama (10N-12N from 78W-81.5W, drifting NE)...and lifting off NE Colombia, now 13N-15N from 73W-75W, moving N.

--Vorticity (spin) elongated from 12N/80W...13N/84W. Though Tropical LO formation seems very unlikely, GFS & Canadian continue to hint at weak LO formation, possibly S of Caymans tomorrow, moving NW thru YucatanChnl by Mon26 morning / E GOMEX & FL & extreme W Bahamas & feeding squalls along stationary FRONT just off SE US Mon26 & Tue27.

* *

--I give a 30% chance of Tropical LO formation anywhere in the region thru Wed28.
Quoting Patrap:



Flood,we do have a cheerleader on our side,and he's a Heavy

Read this thru..

Mr. President, Will You Lead Us to Greatness in Space?

By Buzz Aldrin

The road map is now complete.
Today the commission formed to provide President Barack Obama with a series of potential pathways to America's future in space has delivered its final report. Officials in the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP, as they say in Washington) received the report from my friend Chairman Norm Augustine, and have begun the formal process of reviewing the analysis it contains.
The plan is for President Barack Obama to select one of the "options" for America's future in space that the plan lays out-or none at all or something else entirely.


Thanks, Pat...I had forgotten Buzz...how eloquent and powerful a voice is he? One who has set foot on the moon himself!
You betcha floodman,and if I were President,Id bring him into the fold and well,make him our Space Czar..

That should rattle some right shoe'd folks some,LOL
Quoting tornadofan:


Isn't Pensacola and Destin in Alabama?



you me
Quoting Floodman:


Thanks, Pat...I had forgotten Buzz...how eloquent and powerful a voice is he? One who has set foot on the moon himself!


Reading a book right now you might find interesting. Shows how they used to do it.
"SOJOURNER An Insider's View of the Mars Pathfinder Mission" by Andrew Mishkin
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
CaribWx Update, Interim Tropical, Fri23, 6a

TROPICAL FEATURES:
--Upper-TROF/upper-LO drifting WNW over W Bahamas & surface TROF drifting WNW over C Bahamas support squalls to 40k-or-so across E Jamaica / E Cuba / Haiti thru areas 20N-27N from 76W-67W...then milder activity pulled W into N Bahamas around N periphery of upper-LO/TROF...and stronger squalls in a band E-ward along old FrontalTROF near 24N-25N from 70W-55W, with scattered lesser squalls along this Longitude from 22N-28N (within 180mi both sides of FrontalTROF).

--While a few models (including GFS) still predict weak Tropical LO formation in Bahamas, it's much more likely to remain a squally & nasty TROF moving WNW thru Bahamas today, then lifting N from NW Bahamas tomorrow, ahead of a ColdFRONT that stalls over FL & off the SE US Coast Sun25.

(NOTE: the addition of a weak surface LO analyzed at GeorgetownBahamas at 8am based on 6am QuickScat & 8am UofWisc 850mb vorticity...does not change expectation that any LO with Tropical characteristics will be weak...and I will not rework the entire analysis since our forecast for the area allows for the possibility of weak LO.)

* *

--A few models (notably the credible Euro & NOGAPS) also predict a possibly-Tropical-LO forming off SE US Sun25-Mon26 along the FrontalBoundary...passing just S & SE of NewEngland Tue27 as a GALE or a Tropical or semi-Tropical LO.

* *

--Situation in SW Caribbean remains in flux...all of last evening's clustered activity dissipated overnight...new clustered & strong squalls forming just N of C Panama (10N-12N from 78W-81.5W, drifting NE)...and lifting off NE Colombia, now 13N-15N from 73W-75W, moving N.

--Vorticity (spin) elongated from 12N/80W...13N/84W. Though Tropical LO formation seems very unlikely, GFS & Canadian continue to hint at weak LO formation, possibly S of Caymans tomorrow, moving NW thru YucatanChnl by Mon26 morning / E GOMEX & FL & extreme W Bahamas & feeding squalls along stationary FRONT just off SE US Mon26 & Tue27.

* *

--I give a 30% chance of Tropical LO formation anywhere in the region thru Wed28.
This actually isn't a bad analysis. Is this from the stormcarib website?
Quoting Patrap:

Hey, Patrap, I just posted that image in #114, has it changed that much in 2 minutes? lol!!!!
hey markymark1973 whats the lottery up to? just wondering
135. 786
how much efftec is the dry air going to have on ex-94L anyone??
136. 786
effect I meant to say
Quoting Grothar:

Hey, Patrap, I just posted that image in #114, has it changed that much in 2 minutes? lol!!!!



Well the way my filter is set,a lotta post are hidden to me,


Depends,..if you turn yer Monitor upside down,U could be in the Southern Hemisphere.

And well,..no one had EVER posted those images till I started posting them last year from that site.

Your clever but not funny,quite yet Gro,..LOL
Quoting BahaHurican:
This actually isn't a bad analysis. Is this from the stormcarib website?
Yes, it is. I find that he tends to have a pretty good handle on happenings in the Caribbean region.
Quoting 786:
how much efftec is the dry air going to have on ex-94L anyone??
I can't answer you since i don't know but as I said earlier looks to me like the dry air is being pulled away from it by the Bahamas disturbance.
Quoting Patrap:



Depends,..if you turn yer Monitor upside down,U could be in the Southern Hemisphere.

And well,..no one had EVER posted those images till I stated posting them last year from that site.

Your clever but not funny,quite yet Gro,..LOL


If you remember, you are the one who gave me the link!! I can be dangerous with a little information. lol Don't give away all your secrets.
Quoting PcolaDan:


Reading a book right now you might find interesting. Shows how they used to do it.
"SOJOURNER An Insider's View of the Mars Pathfinder Mission" by Andrew Mishkin


Interesting book hey Dan. Their conclusion was that Mars once had a thick atmosphere and abundant water. Wonder what could have happened????
Sharing is what I do,..as everyone can access the info.

But some think they have a secret enclave that ,well is kinda silly.

We all can access anything weather wise,save for a few Model suites.

Quoting Jeff Masters: "...then potentially turn northwards towards South Carolina."

That's my boy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I think he meant to say "The Carolina's", didn't he?
Something weird with NHC. They have a floater on AL97 in the Antilles ??????????
Quoting Grothar:


Interesting book hey Dan. Their conclusion was that Mars once had a thick atmosphere and abundant water. Wonder what could have happened????


Time? :) Although the sun is warming gradually (for the next billion years or so) until it becomes a red giant. If it were the other way around I would say it's possible the climate on Mars was warmer and more conducive to life as we know it, but it's a cold place. But then again, atmosphere is much more complicated than that. The Borg did it. :)
Quoting Grothar:


Interesting book hey Dan. Their conclusion was that Mars once had a thick atmosphere and abundant water. Wonder what could have happened????
This is not a particularly new thought. Edgar Rice Burroughs had a 12 part series on a Mars with humanoid life forms and a decreasing water / atmospheric base. That was almost 100 years ago.
Rainbow - 97l???

Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, includes Dr. Masters & Weather456, daily update.

Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI
Seismic Monitor
Humor in Comments
looks like south florida is going to get a soaker to help before the dry season gets futher in, all we might get IF it develops is heavy rain and some gusty winds nothing more.
as for the area near nicaragua i would watch it this could be a player over the weekend
I think the area East of Nicaragua is about to go yellow again.
95L looking good at the surface. Definitely closed.

when is the time frame 95L would be making its closest approach to SE Florida


Lots of new little AOI's today
Now the AL97 tag is back on the floater
Quoting kmanislander:
I think the area East of Nicaragua is about to go yellow again.
hey kman i see that all 95L Needs is convection and we have a TD Closed Circulation
I believe there in Slew mode Kman,or redirecting the FLoater at this time.

Or maybe someone's sitting on the Point console,LOL
000
ABNT20 KNHC 231733
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED BETWEEN THE NORTH COAST OF
EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. THIS LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST ACCOMPANIED BY DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SYSTEM
BECOMES ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT IN A DAY OR TWO.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
164. xcool
I GIVE BIG A+ TO CMC MODEL NAIL IT 95L
Quoting Patrap:
I believe there in Slew mode Kman,or redirecting the FLoater at this time.

Or maybe someone's sitting on the Point console,LOL


Hi Pat,

I took down my posts because I ran the loop and saw the coordinates were over the CATL feature but have just looked again. They are in the process of redirecting that floater I believe. Here is the image again.

166. MayFL
I think Weather456 described it best early this morning on his blog, and I quote:

"There is another area of disturbed weather associated with a low-pressure area over the Bahamas interacting with mid-upper level cyclonic flow over Cuba. Upper winds are extremely unfavourable for development but the feature might deepen some before becoming absorbed into a frontal boundary as it heads west.">
Quoting BahaHurican:
This is not a particularly new thought. Edgar Rice Burroughs had a 12 part series on a Mars with humanoid life forms and a decreasing water / atmospheric base. That was almost 100 years ago.


I would assume any (substantial) atmosphere that Mars once had would have been scoured away by the solar wind and free oxygen would have been locked up in the minerals (the iron oxide on the surface of Mars).

Anyway, where are the remains of Rick at?
Which is 95L?
Quoting kmanislander:


Hi Pat,

I took down my posts because I ran the loop and saw the coordinates were over the CATL feature but have just looked again. They are in the process of relocating that floater I believe. Here is the image again.



Makes ya wonder if the FLoater guys are well,looking to get out early on a Friday.
Quoting InTheCone:
Rainbow - 97l???

No, I think you are too far west from what I saw it was placed at around Barbados area.
Looks like we will soon have AL97
Quoting Weather456:
Which is 95L?


Bahamian disturbance.
173. xcool
YEAH COMING SOON! AL97L
95L is Lower Right

Quoting PcolaDan:


Time? :) Although the sun is warming gradually (for the next billion years or so) until it becomes a red giant. If it were the other way around I would say it's possible the climate on Mars was warmer and more conducive to life as we know it, but it's a cold place. But then again, atmosphere is much more complicated than that. The Borg did it. :)


oh, the Borg, boy, they were really "wired", eh?
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
No, I think you are too far west from what I saw it was placed at around Barbados area.


Look at the image in my post 165

That is the area East of Nicaragua that you saw on that floater. It is on the increase once more.
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


Bahamian disturbance.


Ah ok,

Quoting Weather456:
Which is 95L?
So, where is 96L ? Jumped from 95 to 97.
What happened to 96L? Nicaraguan AOI?
Quoting LavosPhoenix:


I would assume any (substantial) atmosphere that Mars once had would have been scoured away by the solar wind and free oxygen would have been locked up in the minerals (the iron oxide on the surface of Mars).

Anyway, where are the remains of Rick at?


I think headed towards Pennsylvania and New York!
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
No, I think you are too far west from what I saw it was placed at around Barbados area.


That is what is up on the SSD page under 97L. It would be the blob near Nicaragua, just doesn't have the land masses. Coordinates are correct.

Link
The SW Carib disturbance may become 97L or 96L.

Look at the coordinates

Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
What happened to 96L? Nicaraguan AOI?


I am not sure exactly what is going on. The floater that was on the Atlantic area is now capturing images of the area east of Nicaragua and has a tag AL97.

I don't know what happened to the 96L designation.
WOW! look at the Flaoater on AL97 just east of the Nicaraguan, talking about organizing just look at this Link
Kman,

I do not know what is going on myself

But what I can tell we have 95L....Bahamas area

and a possibly new invest SW Caribbean but no mention in TWO.


I also not too much impressed with 95L.
Its a New Game,Floater/Invest Twister,from Mattel.

Break out the Soda's,and lets Play.

Whose gonna spin first?
95L has a closed LLC but no convection ATM. 96/97 has convection but no closed LLC? sheesh, get it together already.
Quoting stormpetrol:
WOW! look at the Flaoater on AL97 just east of the Nicaraguan, talking about organizing just look at this Link


yep. You can see the center near 12.5N 82.7W

Very clear circulation and looks like it is organizing fairly quickly.

It is being affected by some shear from the W and the center is on the Western edge of the convection.
Quoting Weather456:


Ah ok,





Not trying to be funny, but isn't it unusual to see such vigorous waves that far out in a quiet season.
Quoting Weather456:
Kman,

I do not know what is going on myself

But what I can tell we have 95L....Bahamas area

and a possibly new invest SW Caribbean but no mention in TWO.


I also not too much impressed with 95L.


Run the vis loop on the area East of Nicaragua that Stormpetrol just posted and look at the Western edge of the convection
192. xcool
ALL I CAN SAY IS CMC MODEL DO VERY GOOD JOB.IMO!!!!
well if ya look at the 12Z gfs theres AOI out the butt lol
194. xcool
opps cap lock
Quoting kmanislander:


Look at the image in my post 165

That is the area East of Nicaragua that you saw on that floater. It is on the increase once more.
No, when I looked at it first it was right over the Antilles which is why I thought it was weird.
Quoting kmanislander:


yep. You can see the center near 12.5N 82.7W

Very clear circulation and looks like it is organizing fairly quickly.

It is being affected by some shear from the W and the center is on the Western edge of the convection.

yep looks like a clear surface circulation to me, wouldn't surprise me to see this jump to TD status if this trend continues, jmo.
Quoting kmanislander:


yep. You can see the center near 12.5N 82.7W

Very clear circulation and looks like it is organizing fairly quickly.

It is being affected by some shear from the W and the center is on the Western edge of the convection.



This would be greatest comeback ever if it does become 97L. Hospitals will be filled with people suffering from dropped jaws.
@ Pat and Flood

Ever read Kim Stanley Robinson's Red Mars trilogy?

some of the best fiction on the subject of colonization of mars... lots of "hard" science.
Quoting Patrap:
Its a New Game,Floater/Invest Twister,from Mattel.

Break out the Soda's,and lets Play.

Whose gonna spin first?
I'll have a root beer please.
Quoting xcool:
opps cap lock
You're forgiven for that.LOL
201. MayFL
Quoting Weather456:



This would be greatest comeback ever if it does become 97L. Hospitals will be filled with people suffering from dropped jaws.


LOL, that is funny
202. xcool







Quoting Patrap:
Its a New Game,Floater/Invest Twister,from Mattel.

Break out the Soda's,and lets Play.

Whose gonna spin first?
Ya think we oughta invite some woman to this party? Just sayin....j/k
Quoting xcool:
ALL I CAN SAY IS CMC MODEL DO VERY GOOD JOB.IMO!!!!


Yes it do do a job good.
Quoting kmanislander:


Run the vis loop on the area East of Nicaragua that Stormpetrol just posted and look at the Western edge of the circulation


I did and I saw a spin on the edge of the convection, not sure if it closed but there is a spin.
Ya think we oughta invite some woman to this party? Just sayin

yeah, good luck with that....

;)
Quoting Weather456:



This would be greatest comeback ever if it does become 97L. Hospitals will be filled with people suffering from dropped jaws.


No doubt about that.Pressure at Puerto Cabezas and Bluefields now at 1008 and falling.
Back in a while.
209. xcool
JupiterFL yeah i guesss lol
Quoting Unfriendly:
@ Pat and Flood

Ever read Kim Stanley Robinson's Red Mars trilogy?

some of the best fiction on the subject of colonization of mars... lots of "hard" science.


No,but now I will for sure.
been a amateur astronomer since I was round 10.
Cool stuff goin' on here...check it out..
Link
I dunno, that just looks like it's firing again. at least it's firing in the correct place, but this looks like the sos from the last couple of days
213. xcool
Recon scheduled for Saturday


000
NOUS42 KNHC 231430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT FRI 23 OCTOBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z 0CTOBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-148

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA BAHAMAS
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 24/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 24/1530Z
D. 25.5N 79.0W
E. 24/1500Z TO 24/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK......NEGATIVE
Hello all that actually know what you are talking about. I mostly lurk, but am wondering about the weather in the GOM. I took the boat out yesterday (big mistake) it was really rough even in the inland bays. Looks like we have some weather on our hands. Is it possible that it will become tropical? TIA
Quoting NRAamy:
Ya think we oughta invite some woman to this party? Just sayin

yeah, good luck with that....

;)
LTIH great comeback. good to see a sense of humor. this seams to be a season with lots of tension at times.




The GOM frontal Squall Line has more convection than the entire Basin mostly..

But its a feature not likely to become tropical.
The Blue Link:

Link

Note the Naked swirl in the C. Atlantic on the Viz Loop.

Cute one...trailing it as well,but more Diffuse.



Thanks Patrap. Just know it is a pretty nasty squall line. Most assuradly don't want to be on the water! It seems to me that October is a month when "pop-ups" occur in the GOM. I'm all prepared (always am between June and November) since I have five kids in tow!
220. xcool
Quoting tornadofan:


Isn't Pensacola and Destin in Alabama?


I know my first winter in Tallahasse as a delivery truck driver, I was shivering in the sleet with nothing but a windbreaker, moaning about how I thought I'd moved to Florida. The guy on the loading dock said:

"Hell boy, who told you that? This is south Georgia!"
Never Lose Hope..maybe a true miracle.


Pineville boy, 12, survives plunge into culvert originally thought fatal


By The Associated Press
October 22, 2009, 11:45PM

A 12-year-old Pineville boy was in critical condition late Thursday after being swept by rushing storm water into a culvert, police said.

Lt. Darrell Basco, a spokesman for the Pineville Police Department, said the child was submerged in the water for about 45 minutes before department divers found him and pulled him from the drain.

Basco said the boy and two friends were riding their bicycles through the neighborhood and playing in the water. At some point, the boy's bicycle fell into the water. "He reached for it and tried to grab it but the speed of the current took both him and the bike," Basco said.

One of the child's friends tried to grab hold of him to pull him to safety, but was unable.

Earlier reports that the child had been killed were wrong, Basco said. He was treated at the scene by emergency workers and revived during transport or at Rapides Regional Medical Center, he said.

"They were able to get his pulse and heartbeat back and they're still doing further tests," he said.

The child's name has not been released.

Tanya Rogers, who lives in the neighborhood, told The Town Talk that there's usually only about a foot of water in the marsh to the left and right of the road where the accident happened. Thursday, however, there was about 5 or 6 feet of water because of torrential rains. The storm was part of a weather system that triggered tornado warnings throughout the area.

Pensacola and Destin are in Florida. The only difference from S.A. (South Alabama) are their higher taxes!
Quoting FreelanceHistorian:


I know my first winter in Tallahasse as a delivery truck driver, I was shivering in the sleet with nothing but a windbreaker, moaning about how I thought I'd moved to Florida. The guy on the loading dock said:

"Hell boy, who told you that? This is south Georgia!"


I agree with that statement fully, i lived in Tallahassee for five years and it is South Georgia. It one of the colder spots in Florida and they see plenty of 30's and even 20's through the winter.
Quoting lowerbamagirl:
Thanks Patrap. Just know it is a pretty nasty squall line. Most assuradly don't want to be on the water! It seems to me that October is a month when "pop-ups" occur in the GOM. I'm all prepared (always am between June and November) since I have five kids in tow!


Then your way ahead of the Game and a Good Parent as well.

Preparation is the Key for any Natural or other emergency event.
Enjoy the nice weather this weekend as well
i am back anything new with 95L and with the disturbance off nicaragua
Thanks Patrap! We had five days of absolutely gorgeous weather! Hope more is in store for us.
Quoting Seflhurricane:
i am back anything new with 95L and with the disturbance off nicaragua


Read back,or the Doc's entry above,.not much..cept Fla is well,..nevermind,LOL
Quoting Patrap:


Read back,,.not much..cept Fla is well,..nevermind,LOL
thanks patrap!! does it look like 95L with get quickly organized
Strange how we were all worried about 94l hitting SLFA and 95l may hit SFLA anyway.
Andres, CO (Airport)
Updated: 26 min 56 sec ago 26 °C
Light Drizzle
Humidity: 94%
Dew Point: 25 °C
Wind: 4 km/h / 1.0 m/s Variable
Pressure: 1008 hPa (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 kilometers
UV: 5 out of 16
Clouds: Few 457 m
Overcast 2438 m
(Above Groun
Quoting Seflhurricane:
thanks patrap!! does it look like 95L with get quickly organized


from Dr. Master's entry above,

There is a large region of dry air to the west of 95L, and this dry air is interfering with development. This system is expected to move west-northwest and be near Miami on Saturday night, then potentially turn northwards towards South Carolina. It is unlikely that 95L has enough time to grow to more than a minimal tropical storm with 45 mph winds. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is on call to investigate the system Saturday afternoon, if necessary.

Quoting Patrap:


Then your way ahead of the Game and a Good Parent as well.

Preparation is the Key for any Natural or other emergency event.
Enjoy the nice weather this weekend as well


I'll call the parents down south if this thing gets to a TD. They'll be quite surprised.
Some one is in a good mood today at the NWS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
952 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...
.OBSERVATIONS...
FAIR SKIES PREVAILED OVERNIGHT IN THE ISLAND EMPIRE. A STRAY SHOWER
PASSED OVER KEY WEST BEFORE DAWN LEAVING ONE HUNDREDTH IN THE CAN.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER 80S AT PRESS TIME WITH LIGHT WINDS
GENERALLY FROM THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST.
the bare naked swirl in the central atlantic might affect the conus by thankgiving. the bahama swirl looks as if it is on a nw trajectory
whats the different between a circle around a low and a low without a circle?
I dont see any sort of update with another invest on the site I normally use

looking at the visible, I would not be surprised
Quoting Keys99:
Some one is in a good mood today at the NWS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
952 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...
.OBSERVATIONS...
FAIR SKIES PREVAILED OVERNIGHT IN THE ISLAND EMPIRE. A STRAY SHOWER
PASSED OVER KEY WEST BEFORE DAWN LEAVING ONE HUNDREDTH IN THE CAN.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOWER 80S AT PRESS TIME WITH LIGHT WINDS
GENERALLY FROM THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST.


Writing weather reports can get boring, why no spice it up. LOL
I'm not impressed with 95L, I don't think it will amount to much, just personal opinion of course, probably because of its proximity to the US that the HHs are on stand by,jmo.
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
I dont see any sort of update with another invest on the site I normally use

looking at the visible, I would not be surprised


SFWMD has no 18Z updates for 95L either.
Quoting stormpetrol:
I'm not impressed with 95L, I don't think it will amount to much, just personal opinion of course, probably because of its proximity to the US that the HHs are on stand by,jmo.


Patience, still has almost 2 days.
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


SFWMD has no 18Z updates for 95L either.


anyone see if its been dropped?
COC of 97L in my estimation is around 13.2N/83W.
95L has not been dropped
95l is a massive system, looks to be taking a sub tropical look.
247. beell
The FL panhandle ahead of the front may get active over the next couple hours. At least a good day to look for a nearshore waterspout or two.

Possibly the Apalachicola area and to the east a bit.
Quoting stormpetrol:
COC of 97L in my estimation is around 13.2N/83W.


There is no 97L officially at this point, ssd labeled it but I am not sure why

plus the next invest should be 96L not 97L

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
227 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT CONTINUES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE ERN GULF
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A STACKED LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS
CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST. THESE FEATURES WILL BE THE KEY
PLAYERS IN THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY...AND THEIR
EXACT TRACK WILL LARGELY DETERMINE JUST HOW MUCH TSTM CHANCES
INCREASE.

GFS/ECMWF BRING THE WEAK SFC AND MID/UPR LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS W TO
NEAR S FL LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. GFS SHOWS AN ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE SURGE WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH PWATS INCREASING TO JUST
OVER 2 INCHES ALONG THE SE CST...BUT HIGHER VALUES REMAIN JUST
OFFSHORE. THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
POPS TOMORROW. IF THE LOW TRACKS A LITTLE FURTHER W...WE WOULD BE IN
MOIST SERLY FLOW WITH HIGHER TSTM CHANCES...BUT IF IT STAYS JUST
OFFSHORE THEN WE WOULD BE IN WEAK WRLY FLOW AND WEAK PSBL SUBSIDENCE
ON THE W SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. EITHER WAY...THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST
SOME INCREASE IN SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY DUE TO SOME INCREASE IN STABILITY
ACROSS THE REGION.

GFS/ECMWF STALL THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE FL
PANHANDLE NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE SUNDAY...AND THIS IS WHERE THE
GFS/ECMWF BEGIN TO DIVERGE SOMEWHAT. GFS BRINGS A CHUNK OF ENERGY
TOWARDS/OVER THE REGION FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT...WITH A BIG MOISTURE INCREASE AND INCREASE IN TSTM CHANCES
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THESE FEATURES COMBINE ACROSS THE REGION.
ECMWF BRINGS THIS ENERGY MORE NW INTO THE GULF...ALLOWING A BIT MORE
RIDGING TO BUILD W ACROSS SOUTH FL AND SHOVING THE STALLED FRONT
BACK NORTH INTO THE BIG BEND REGION WITH DEEP SERLY FLOW...KEEPING HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE LAKE REGION OR NORTH. THE NAM AGREES WITH
THIS SCENARIO...AND THE GFS SEEMS TO BE INFLUENCED BY CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK. HPC SEEMS TO FAVOR THE ECMWF/NAM MORE WHICH MAKES SENSE
SO WILL NOT DRASTICALLY INCREASE POPS AT THIS TIME.
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
95L has not been dropped


So, in less than 5 hours.

Nothing, 95L, New Blog, Nothing.
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


So, in less than 5 hours.

Nothing, 95L, New Blog, Nothing.


he said 95l has NOT been dropped?
AL 95 2009102318 BEST 0 220N 758W 25 1009 DB
Simply Gaw-jus here this afternoon.

Current Conditions

Audubon Park-Patton St., New Orleans, Louisiana (PWS)
Updated: 5 min 44 sec ago
Partly Cloudy

71.8 °F

Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 60%
Dew Point: 57 °F
Wind: 5.0 mph from the WNW
Pressure: 29.83 in (Falling)
Quoting ElConando:


he said 95l has NOT been dropped?


I guess I need to open my eyes a bit more, lol. Sorry about that
Quoting IKE:
HPC 3-7 day forecast


Thats a big butted 1024mb High Ike on day 7,come on down babe..!
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


There is no 97L officially at this point, ssd labeled it but I am not sure why

plus the next invest should be 96L not 97L

No problem I'm just going by what I see on that site, I really don't know who makes the official call but I sure think it has organized enough to be recognized, but thats just my opinion " a rose by any other name is still a rose"
reading last hr or two first thing i see some character drumming up 95 (or whatever) then i read "another one bites the dust" now im reading 95 is alive. alive or not the wind has picked up this beatiful afternoon in e cent florida good day
259. IKE
Quoting Patrap:


Thats a big butted 1024mb High Ike on day 7,come on down babe..!


It should right after that time period.
Quoting Weather456:



This would be greatest comeback ever if it does become 97L. Hospitals will be filled with people suffering from dropped jaws.


Conditions will get better over the next 24 hours, as the upper level trough degenerates. Wind shear is decreasing rapidly across the eastern GOM and the Caribbean, as an upper level ridge moves across the SE eastern U.S. As a result, 95L will be directly under that high in approximately 24hrs, near the Florida keys. This high barely extends to the 500mb levels, so it will not cause a cap to hinder vertical motion, but will instead favor upper level divergence.

Whether 95L develops or not, its life will be short, for it will positively be absorbed by the surface front within 48hrs.

EX94L weakened substantially yesterday because of dry air and relatively high shear. Because the the upper level trough is weakening, wind shear is decreasing extremely rapid at the moment. The dry air will so will be moistened as the front in the Gulf kinks in the NW Caribbean.

Quoting leftovers:
reading last hr or two first thing i see some character drumming up 95 (or whatever) then i read "another one bites the dust" now im reading 95 is alive. alive or not the wind has picked up this beatiful afternoon in e cent florida good day


95L is alive until they deactivate it, also the latest NHC TWO said slow development was possible.
Quoting futuremet:


Conditions will get better over the next 24 hours, as the upper level trough degenerates. Wind shear is decreasing rapidly across the eastern GOM and the Caribbean, as an upper level ridge moves across the SE eastern U.S. As a result, 95L will be directly under that high in approximately 24hrs, near the Florida keys. This high barely extends to the 500mb levels, so it will not cause a cap to hinder vertical motion, but will instead favor upper level divergence.

Whether 95L develops or not, its life will be short, for it will positively be absorbed by the surface front within 48hrs.

EX94L weakened substantially yesterday because of dry air and relatively high shear. Because the the upper level trough is weakening, wind shear is decreasing extremely rapid at the moment. The dry air will so will be moistened as the front in the Gulf kinks in the NW Caribbean.



So basically the favorable conditions we have been waiting on to happen to help development is starting to occur now?
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


So basically the favorable conditions we have been waiting on to happen to help development is starting to occur now?


Yes
Quoting IKE:


It should right after that time period.


BAMM has 95L near you in 72 hours.
Quoting futuremet:


Conditions will get better over the next 24 hours, as the upper level trough degenerates. Wind shear is decreasing rapidly across the eastern GOM and the Caribbean, as an upper level ridge moves across the SE eastern U.S. As a result, 95L will be directly under that high in approximately 24hrs, near the Florida keys. This high barely extends to the 500mb levels, so it will not cause a cap to hinder vertical motion, but will instead favor upper level divergence.

Whether 95L develops or not, its life will be short, for it will positively be absorbed by the surface front within 48hrs.

EX94L weakened substantially yesterday because of dry air and relatively high shear. Because the the upper level trough is weakening, wind shear is decreasing extremely rapid at the moment. The dry air will so will be moistened as the front in the Gulf kinks in the NW Caribbean.

I asked earlier this morning if 95L was pulling the dry air away from X94L which is what it looks like to me but I never got an answer. Something is pulling/pushing it away, right ?
If that swirl ar 45W 13N gets out from under the shear it will most likely develop quickly.
That and the wave at 35W.
The Mess in the Bahamas will likely be subtropical if it forms up. Stalled frontal boundries have a tendency to do that..example Andrea.

pssst,NEW ENTRY folks


Convection seems to be wrapping into the COC.
Quoting sailingallover:
If that swirl ar 45W 13N gets out from under the shear it will most likely develop quickly.
That and the wave at 35W.
The Mess in the Bahamas will likely be subtropical if it forms up. Stalled frontal boundries have a tendency to do that..example Andrea.



The Tropical Atlantic is basically closed, I highly doubt either wave out there has even a chance to develop
Post 269: Stormwatcher- A rather large squall just moved into Savannah & is thundering down at the moment,hold on..car windows...
Quoting superpete:
Post 269: Stormwatcher- A rather large squall just moved into Savannah & is thundering down at the moment,hold on..car windows...
None in EE yet but it is black to the N so I don't think it will be long. Check out X94L. Looks like it is better organized than previously.
Marine Weather Discussion


A 1009 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR
23N76W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NW TO NEAR 25N79W SAT THEN
INLAND SUN.



A BROAD 1007 MB LOW IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA NEAR 13N83W. THE LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THEN DISSIPATE SUN.
I see it is tagged as 97L on the floater satellite.I'm going to have to put some numbers up on post-its to keep track here soon..lol
Quoting superpete:
I see it is tagged as 97L on the floater satellite.I'm going to have to put some numbers up on post-its to keep track here soon..lol
Still trying to figure out what happened to 96. lol
NEW BLOG folks lol
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
NEW BLOG folks lol


last post :P
Quoting IKE:
HPC 3-7 day forecast


That forecast was from earlier this week. The newest one has the front stalling around south florida
Quoting futuremet:


Conditions will get better over the next 24 hours, as the upper level trough degenerates. Wind shear is decreasing rapidly across the eastern GOM and the Caribbean, as an upper level ridge moves across the SE eastern U.S. As a result, 95L will be directly under that high in approximately 24hrs, near the Florida keys. This high barely extends to the 500mb levels, so it will not cause a cap to hinder vertical motion, but will instead favor upper level divergence.

Whether 95L develops or not, its life will be short, for it will positively be absorbed by the surface front within 48hrs.

EX94L weakened substantially yesterday because of dry air and relatively high shear. Because the the upper level trough is weakening, wind shear is decreasing extremely rapid at the moment. The dry air will so will be moistened as the front in the Gulf kinks in the NW Caribbean.



That ridge is currently breaking down and the trough will get reinforced this weekend.
Good evening all
Both disturbances look anemic at the moment so will just have to see what happens over the weekend. Futuremet pretty much covered it all.