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Bahamas disturbance 95L not organizing

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 6:51 PM GMT on October 23, 2009

An area of disturbed weather over the central Bahama Islands associated with a surface trough of low pressure was designated Invest 95L by NHC this morning, and has the potential for some slow development over the next two days, as it heads west-northwest towards Southeast Florida. An ASCAT pass at 10:21am EDT this morning showed a center of circulation between Cuba and the central Bahamas, with top winds of 25 mph in the heaviest thunderstorms, to the north of the Bahamas. Recent satellite loops show a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity that is not increasing in intensity or areal coverage. The large amount of dry air to the west of 95L is interfering with development. Wind shear over the system was a prohibitively high 30 knots last night, but fell dramatically to just 10 knots this morning, and is expected to remain in the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, through Sunday. The system should be near Miami on Saturday night, and should then get absorbed by a cold front and turn north towards South Carolina. It is unlikely that 95L has enough time to grow into a tropical depression, given the short amount of time it has over water, and the presence of so much dry air to the west. However, an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is on call to investigate the system Saturday afternoon, if necessary.

In the Southwest Caribbean, intermittent heavy thunderstorm activity continues off the coast of Nicaragua, in association with a 1007 mb low. This low does have some spin to it, but the associated heavy thunderstorm activity is very limited at present, due to a large amount of dry air to the north. None of the computer models is forecasting tropical cyclone development over the coming seven days.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Invest 95L.

The road to Copenhagen
By some accounts, the future of the world will be at stake this December, when the crucial U.N. Climate Change Conference will be held December 7 - 18 in Copenhagen, Denmark. At that meeting, the leaders of the world will gather to negotiate an agreement to replace the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. The new agreement will be the world's road map for dealing with climate change, and the stakes are huge. In the coming weeks, major efforts will be made by both sides of the debate to sway public opinion on climate change. Opponents of CO2 emission regulations made their case last weekend, with the release of the video, Not Evil, Just Wrong. Billed as the largest simultaneous film premiere party in U.S. history, the movie aired on 7,000 screens in 50 states. The movie was originally intended to be released at major theaters throughout the U.S., but Hollywood showed insufficient interest in the film. The producers were forced to release the movie on video and hold private "movie parties" for its opening. The movie fiercely attacks Al Gore, and decrys "the true cost of global warming hysteria" on jobs and the economy.

This Sunday, the green lobby is fighting back. The newly-formed climate advocacy group 350.org is sponsoring 4,517 actions in 173 countries. The group is seeking to promote the views of leading climate scientists, including NASA's Dr. James Hansen, that the highest "safe" level of CO2 in the atmosphere is 350 ppm--lower than the current 388 ppm, and far below the target value of 450 ppm typically cited as the "danger" level for atmospheric CO2. The plan is to have thousands of citizens making giant human 3s in some cities, 5s in others, and 0s in others--a sort of planet-scale Scrabble game that they hope CNN and BBC will try to solve for them on the evening news. There will be underwater rallies on the Great Barrier Reef in Australia and in the Middle East off the coast of Oman. Over 300 land-based rallies will be held in China, and 1,000 in the U.S.

With tropical season winding down, I plan to make regular posts over the next six weeks analyzing the scientific claims of efforts by the green lobby and the opponents of CO2 emission regulations to win your hearts and minds in the run-up to the December 7 conference in Copenhagen. My first post in this series will look at 350.org's claim that 350 ppm of CO2 represents the danger level for CO2 in the atmosphere. I'll also look at an audacious TV ad that boldly asserts that more CO2 in the atmosphere is better for Earth's ecosystems.


Figure 2. Competing for your hearts and minds: Cover of the DVD Not Evil, Just Wrong (left), and a promotional image from the http://www.350.org web site (right), showing children in India spelling out the number "350" to promote a 350 ppm target for CO2 levels in the atmosphere.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Saturday.

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

am now calling it the off season, has hurricane season, is vary march overe with
Quoting Weather456:


I know of a relationship between sunspots and climate but not sunspots and tropical activity. I am expected to investigate the topic during the off-season so you may see a blog entry on it. However, I know too little and there is little known to include it one of my seasonal updates.


it's all connected, our earth reflects what occurs with our sun
Yes indeed, Phantom. Yes INDEED.
so 8 name storm 2 hurricane 2 cat 3 or higher storms
Quoting Tazmanian:
so 8 name storm 2 hurricane 2 cat 3 or higher storms


not bad...I have gray hair strands to remember this season.
And the tie breaker goes to pat vis a v the Cardigans.
True, WaterWitch.
History dictates neutral conditions next year

MYG cold core becoming warm over Cuba. Any Mets want to comment on that Re. 505.
Yo! Check us out!Link
" History dictates neutral conditions next year"
Well, we will certainly find out....
But if Neutral does not occur, I would not be surprised. I mean it must become neutral, as the thing swings through. But, for how long, and when??
Quoting pottery:
" History dictates neutral conditions next year"
Well, we will certainly find out....
But if Neutral does not occur, I would not be surprised. I mean it must become neutral, as the thing swings through. But, for how long, and when??


I dont know

El Ninos last several months

La Ninas last twice as long.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


The dry air's getting squooshed out of existence pretty good there. IS that going to help 90-whateverL?
Quoting Weather456:


not bad...I have gray hair strands to remember this season.



so we saw less name storm then we did in 2006
Quoting gordydunnot:
MYG cold core becoming warm over Cuba. Any Mets want to comment on that Re. 505.


Yeah, that could be possible considering that the upper level low has lingered down near Cuba for several days now and tropical moisture has begun wrapping around the west side, indicative of a transitioning cold core system to a possible warm core system.
Quoting Tazmanian:



so we saw less name storm then we did in 2006


That is clearly obvious Taz. But more than the 4 named storms we were predicting back in august. lol.

Anything more than 6 named storms for me is satisfying.
518. MayFL
Taz,

Slight correction there - 8 named storms and a couple of unnamed storms.
Quoting MayFL:
Taz,

Slight correction there - 8 named storms and a couple of unnamed storms.


Don't even start, lol.
Quoting Weather456:


That is clearly obvious Taz. But more than the 4 named storms we were predicting back in august. lol.

Anything more than 6 named storms for me is satisfying.



thats good 456



456 do you think hurricane season is vary march overe with now we are now in late OCT and with EL nino we have right now i dont see any more name storms all so do you think the hurricane season is overe for the E PAC or do you think they stan the ch of see one or two more name storms??? all so the USA is fast heading in too winter mode right now would t you say so
521. xcool



23/1745 UTC 13.6N 82.3W T1.0/1.0 95L -- Atlantic
Quoting Tazmanian:



thats good 456



456 do you think hurricane season is vary march overe with now we are now in late OCT and with EL nino we have right now i dont see any more name storms all so do you think the hurricane season is overe for the E PAC or do you think they stan the ch of see one or two more name storms??? all so the USA is fast heading in too winter mode right now would t you say so


I don't know about the Pacific, they are experiencing an above average season so they can squeeze out another one.

As for the Atlantic basin, this is the last chance, climatological and downward MJO will combine to end this season in a couple of weeks. I cannot rule out a wandering subtropical storm though. But the deep tropical Atlantic has already closed. the W Carib is still moderately riped for the next 2 weeks.
Quoting Weather456:


I don't know about the Pacific, they are experiencing an above average season so they can squeeze out another one.

As for the Atlantic basin, this is the last chance, climatological and downward MJO will combine to end this season in a couple of weeks. I cannot rule out a wandering subtropical storm though. But the deep tropical Atlantic has already closed. the W Carib is still moderately riped for the next 2 weeks.



ok
524. 786
All that energy inland around ex-94L and from the Pacific seems to be moving North....what do you make of that?
525. 786
there is a lotta moisture in the SW now as well..
526. 786
the L from the Pacific seems to be moving N too?
Quoting TampaSpin:
A very strong cold front will plunge deep in the South next weekend.....get the firewood ready.

That looks like a good one, right in line for halloween, breezy and cold, I'll be in Disney World bringing the little ones, we'll dress warmer based on that front!
528. xcool
95L is the worst looking non convection invest ive seen this year!
Quoting stormsurge39:
95L is the worst looking non convection invest ive seen this year!


Despite the lack of convection, it maintains an impressive lower level vort signature as evidenced in the latest CIMSS 850mb Vorticity product below.

Quoting cchsweatherman:


Despite the lack of convection, it maintains an impressive lower level vort signature as evidenced in the latest CIMSS 850mb Vorticity product below.

Is there any expectations of it gaining weight before it is killed by the cold front?
x94L firing convection again.
SW Carribbean blowing up again tonight. There is good vorticity still there and it haas gottem stronger. Also there seems to be a moisture surge from the Pacific Ocean.
Quoting stormsurge39:
Is there any expectations of it gaining weight before it is killed by the cold front?


It all depends upon what happens with the upper level low lingering to the southwest of the system as to whether or not it can not only build, but be able to maintain convection. For now, expectations are fairly low as to this system developing into something more.
Why have the models shifted so fast back to the right on 95L? It looks like its going to have to start turning right now?
Quoting cchsweatherman:


It all depends upon what happens with the upper level low lingering to the southwest of the system as to whether or not it can not only build, but be able to maintain convection. For now, expectations are fairly low as to this system developing into something more.
Thanks, Is it ingesting dry air?
Quoting cchsweatherman:


It all depends upon what happens with the upper level low lingering to the southwest of the system as to whether or not it can not only build, but be able to maintain convection. For now, expectations are fairly low as to this system developing into something more.
What about the sw Caribbean ?
Quoting stormsurge39:
Thanks, Is it ingesting dry air?


There has been some dry air getting funneled into the system by the upper level low to the southwest. But it appears that the dry air may be getting snuffed out as tropical moisture continues to increase in and around the upper level low indicating that the ULL may be weakening some.

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
What about the sw Caribbean ?


At this time, there is nothing organized or organizing down in the region as surface pressures are near normal and there are no wind shifts noted. The burst in convection can be attributed to the usual monsoon gyre that exists in NW Colombia.
Quoting cchsweatherman:


There has been some dry air getting funneled into the system by the upper level low to the southwest. But it appears that the dry air may be getting snuffed out as tropical moisture continues to increase in and around the upper level low indicating that the ULL may be weakening some.



At this time, there is nothing organized or organizing down in the region as surface pressures are near normal and there are no wind shifts noted. The burst in convection can be attributed to the usual monsoon gyre that exists in NW Colombia.
Thanks , why have all the models shifted back to the right with 95L?
541. ackee
the 2009 seasons is over dont see another storm or even a TD
Quoting stormsurge39:
Thanks , why have all the models shifted back to the right with 95L?


Most likely due to the close proximity of the cold front in the Gulf of Mexico to Invest 95L.
Quoting ackee:
the 2009 seasons is over dont see another storm or even a TD
Hmm i thought it was over at the end of NOV? Yea pretty darn sure it is !!
Quoting ackee:
the 2009 seasons is over dont see another storm or even a TD


Even though it currently appears that way if the pattern continues, its never wise to completely discount any hurricane season since Mother Nature always seems to have surprises up her sleeves.
come on guys can we Please this say hurricane season is overe winter is fast takeing overe the USA
Well, I've got to work tomorrow morning, so I'm going to be heading out for the night. Have a good night you all, be safe and good, and I'll probably be back on around the same time tomorrow night.
Quoting Tazmanian:
come on guys can we Please this say hurricane season is overe winter is fast takeing overe the USA


Doesn't mean its over for people in the Caribbean just because winter may be taking hold over most, but not all the United States.
456 if your still on do you think Hurricane Jimena was a cat 5 for a short time and do you think they upgrand the winds too 160mph on it??
DANG!
I think maybe Presslord has gone and gotten himself banned (again), darnit, and evidently he was on a roll tonight! A bunch of posts are missing from a couple pages back. Darn, you have to be fast around here or you miss all the fun. That'll learn me not to watch a cable movie on a Friday night.

[This EDIT made the following Saturday morning. The missing posts from Friday night are back, yea! No, I was not drinking too much Friday pm, lol. Maybe there was blog support or a protest to get them back, yippee.]
Quoting Tazmanian:
come on guys can we Please this say hurricane season is overe winter is fast takeing overe the USA
If you dont live on the Gulf Coast, East Coast, Carribean, Cuba, mexico C/A, and oh yea any other land mass that can be hit before Nov 30 and sometimes after, then i guess you could say it is over!
Quoting pearlandaggie:
is it just me or is this kind of weird?

Brooklyn Mumps Outbreak--Cases also reported in New Jersey


people refusing to vaccinate
Don't write off the SW Caribbean disturbance just yet, the Bahamas disturbance appears to actually be between Jamaica & Cuba.
Quoting stormpetrol:
Don't write off the SW Caribbean disturbance just yet, the Bahamas disturbance appears to actually be between Jamaica & Cuba.


it looks like 94L bit it, but there's still the energy down by Costa Rica... so maybe that will keep this alive tomorrow.

this stupid thing does look like it caved in on itself,though... which means by 5PM tomorrow it'll be a Cat2
No Tropical Storm development is expected for the next few days.. the area we were watching to form today and Saturday south of Jamaica isnt coming thru due to dry air in the mid-levels. 10% chance of anything forming in the next 3 days.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
1. Bahamas 2. Central Caribbean 3. SW Caribbean. Read it again.


sorry for being late. yeah, I understand where the threats were coming from. I was just confused as to what #2 *was*. 1 and 3 are defined, but what is 2, that's what I meant, was it a hypothetical, the uncoming wave, or a remnant of 1/3, or a reorganization of 1.
Quoting DoubleAction:
That looks like a good one, right in line for halloween, breezy and cold, I'll be in Disney World bringing the little ones, we'll dress warmer based on that front!


Yep...Modals are insistent in clearing and cooling us by Halloween! Just like last time. Expect to see it on the 7-forecast tomorrow!

P.S. By the way this disturbance is behaving, we're more likely to see a nice week as opposed to an unsettled one.
Quoting njdevil:


sorry for being late. yeah, I understand where the threats were coming from. I was just confused as to what #2 *was*. 1 and 3 are defined, but what is 2, that's what I meant, was it a hypothetical, the uncoming wave, or a remnant of 1/3, or a reorganization of 1.


no where back to one.
Quoting njdevil:


sorry for being late. yeah, I understand where the threats were coming from. I was just confused as to what #2 *was*. 1 and 3 are defined, but what is 2, that's what I meant, was it a hypothetical, the uncoming wave, or a remnant of 1/3, or a reorganization of 1.

wonder if they meant the central atlantic, interesting area around 14/46, though late in the season & shear on the high side.
Quoting stormpetrol:

wonder if they meant the central atlantic, interesting area around 14/46, though late in the season & shear on the high side.


my answer was one above my post, if I had just looked. lol. busted hypothetical.
Quoting winter123:
]

haha EPIC first post... I have it set to 200 at a time. I really want to see that movie however i do not believe a word that it will actually happen. Too arbitrary a date.
Yeah reminds me of the year 2000 the Y2K scare everything was going to shut down well we're still here 9 years later, then it was supposed to end in 1960 boy do I remember that one too new years came and went nothing happened all Hogwash in My opinion
561. xcool


Yeah reminds me of the year 2000 the Y2K scare everything was going to shut down well we're still here 9 years later, then it was supposed to end in 1960 boy do I remember that one too new years came and went nothing happened all Hogwash in My opinion

What's next...2020? lol
When the Bahama low meets the Cold front, there is going to be a nasty storm. Hopefully, those areas need the rain.
Quoting weatherbro:
Yeah reminds me of the year 2000 the Y2K scare everything was going to shut down well we're still here 9 years later, then it was supposed to end in 1960 boy do I remember that one too new years came and went nothing happened all Hogwash in My opinion

What's next...2020? lol


I believe 2010 is next, followed by 2011, 2012, 2013 (why isn't everyone freaked out by that year?), 2014, etc...
565. xcool
566. xcool
Link


NEW MODEL RUNS
This season is over. Thats O-V-E-R !!



Have a nice morning everyone.
sheartendency
IRLoop
571. unf97
Good morning WU bloggers!

Any word yet if the NHC is canceling the Air Force Recon flight mission into invest 95L. The invest has not organized overnight, which has me inclined to rationalize that they will not fly out today.

Also, TampaSpin, I did observe your post #476. If that upper air pattern evolves in that manner, a very signficant cold weather event indeed will occur by next weekend for the central and eastern third of the USA.

The "sleeper" at around 13N/48W looks mighty impressive this morning, imo might actually be a TD already, would be surprised if the NHC don't mention it this morning.
574. IKE
Looks like recon for 95L should be canceled.

95L looks like it's become a ULL.
Quoting IKE:
Looks like recon for 95L should be canceled.

95L looks like it's become a ULL.


Yep...It could develop from the ULL.....but, its way up there....it will take a couple of days to come down.
576. IKE
From the 8:05 am EDST TWD.....

"CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JAMAICA TO N OF CENTRAL
CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN
70W-80W TO INCLUDE HISPANIOLA....JAMAICA...AND EASTERN CUBA.
FURTHER S...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 78W-84W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N78W.
AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. CONSIDERABLE
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE SW AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS."
15 35 to 15 45 looks interesting?
Good Morning, So is the rain off the west coast of Fl going to make it inland or is it going to dry out? I have a big lemonade show near Ocala today. Any takers. Thank you

Nice outflow
This could make it to Guam
Good morning
581. IKE
Quoting severstorm:
Good Morning, So is the rain off the west coast of Fl going to make it inland or is it going to dry out? I have a big lemonade show near Ocala today. Any takers. Thank you


Small chance of rain....doesn't look like a washout.

You should be okay.
Good morning everyone,
Happy Saturday to you all.

Well, our "invests" do not look too good this morning.

and my forcast:

Saturday Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday

Sat: 88F | 74F 50% chance of rain
Sun: 88F | 74F 50% chance of rain
Mon: 88F | 77F 50% chance of rain
Tue: 88F | 76F 40% chance of rain
Wed: 88F | 74F 30% chance of rain


So I do not see any signs of any cold fronts coming thru SE Florida in the next 5 days...


I guess that cold front is just going to hang it up before it makes it all the way thru Florida.

will check in and out today as I can.

Take care and enjoy your Saturday!
Gams
583. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AND IS PRODUCING
MINIMAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AND
BECOMES ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE... LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BERG
Blog Update

Not a lot going on out there.... so trying some different graphics :)
Hi Ike,

So how is this system going to become "absorbed by a cold front" in the next day or so"
if there is not cold front moving thru Florida?

I do not understand. LOL

thanks for posting the update.

Hi Orca!

586. IKE
Quoting seflagamma:
Hi Ike,

So how is this system going to become "absorbed by a cold front" in the next day or so"
if there is not cold front moving thru Florida?

I do not understand. LOL

thanks for posting the update.

Hi Orca!



I see the cold front heading toward Tampa....

I know ,Ike, it has been out there for 2 days now and seems to be heading our way.. but our forcast does not reflect it and no one is predicting cooler temps just rain for us this weekend.

I still do not understand why our forcast is ignoring this cold front if it is really coming thru. I have seen other reports that it is going to get hung up and disapate and not make it thru South Fla.. I guess we will see.

Thanks for the radar...
I got it, or... maybe the front is coming thru that is why the rain will be 50% chance for 3 days in a row.. but maybe there will no longer be cooler air associated with this passage?

could that be it?
589. IKE
From Melbourne,FL. discussion....

"SUNDAY...
THE WEATHER FOR SUNDAY WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF SATURDAY AS THE
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION CONTINUES TO DISSOLVE AND
MERGE WITH A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE BAHAMAS. THE
RESULT BY SUN AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE A WEAK SFC THROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE STATE FROM NE-SW.

FRONT WILL MAKE IT JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH BEFORE DISSIPATING TO COOL
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY (LOW-MID 80S) NORTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR AS WELL AS FOCUS RAIN CHANCES PRIMARILY ALONG THE COAST
AND SOUTH AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE BEGINS TO CREEP INTO
THE AREA. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE 30-40% SOUTH AND EAST OF
I-4...ISOLATED TO THE NORTH AND WEST."
Thanks Ike,
that explains it... Melbourne is about 2 1/2 hours north of me... so the front is only going to make it barely thur Central Fla before dissipating...

appreciate you looking up the information!

591. IKE
Quoting seflagamma:
Thanks Ike,
that explains it... Melbourne is about 2 1/2 hours north of me... so the front is only going to make it barely thur Central Fla before dissipating...

appreciate you looking up the information!



Have a nice weekend.
Quoting Orcasystems:
Blog Update

Not a lot going on out there.... so trying some different graphics :)


do you ever sleep?
Funny Gamma and I are on the same track - woke up this morning hoping you guys had found us a nice cold front. Just enough to make clouds, not enough to cool off temps.
Morning Ike, see you are up and about early today too.
596. IKE
Quoting zoomiami:
Morning Ike, see you are up and about early today too.


Morning low of 52.2.

Low tonight forecast...Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 42. North wind around 5 mph.
Cold start to fall continues, 252 more low temperature records set in the USA this week


Record Events for Sat Oct 17, 2009 through Fri Oct 23, 2009
Total Records: 2682
Rainfall: 812
Snowfall: 72
High Temperatures: 152
Low Temperatures: 252
Lowest Max Temperatures: 1129
Highest Min Temperatures: 265
Not only an El nino, but other complications have been hampering tropical cyclogenesis this season. For example during August and September, we had anomalously strong troughs amplifying southward due to incessant positive NAOs. We are under the influence of a predominant negative NAO this October, and it is causing the Bermuda high to be unusually strong. This erodes incoming troughs can causes a westward flow in the SW Caribbean. The current conditions in the SW Caribbean currently are favorable, but the low level steering currents advecting all of the moisture toward land. If we had a strong troughs, it would be a whole different story.

Again, the reason why the models backed off the caribbean system is because of the altered steering currents. The models were actually forecasting a stronger trough during the preliminary runs.
Quoting severstorm:
Good Morning, So is the rain off the west coast of Fl going to make it inland or is it going to dry out? I have a big lemonade show near Ocala today. Any takers. Thank you

What is a lemonade show?
Back again for a minute.


So do you all realize what today is??

A very meaningful day for those of us in South Florida.

Hurricane Wilma was blowing our asses away here in S Fla 4 years ago this morning.

What a morning it was!

First of The Bahamas Thing here in So Dade. Rain on Fairchild Tropical Garden's Edible Garden/Scarecrow Fest (:
Quoting seflagamma:
Back again for a minute.


So do you all realize what today is??

A very meaningful day for those of us in South Florida.

Hurricane Wilma was blowing our asses away here in S Fla 4 years ago this morning.

What a morning it was!



Yeah I remember that, and the nice cold temps the next day. That was so strange, hurricane and then 50º morning (which was as cold as I can ever remember in October).
Quoting miajrz:
First of The Bahamas Thing here in So Dade. Rain on Fairchild Tropical Garden's Edible Garden/Scarecrow Fest (:


Not raining here in Westchester just yet, but we are about 6 or 7 miles north west of Fairchild.
Good morning, tropics have gone dormant again and the SW Caribbean disturbance is a forecast bust.

Not only an El nino, but other complications have been hampering tropical cyclogenesis this season. - Futuremet

That's what many have been saying all season.
Quoting Marlinzfan:


Not raining here in Westchester just yet, but we are about 6 or 7 miles north west of Fairchild.

Nor at my friend's by Dadeland. But from the look of the Atlantic WV loop, seems like it'll be soon.
Quoting Weather456:
Good morning, tropics have gone dormant again and the SW Caribbean disturbance is a forecast bust.

Not only an El nino, but other complications have been hampering tropical cyclogenesis this season. - Futuremet

That's what many have been saying all season.


Don't give up just yet, it was forcast to develop slowly.
Quoting miajrz:

Nor at my friend's by Dadeland. But from the look of the Atlantic WV loop, seems like it'll be soon.


Yeah the Hurricanes game this afternoon vs Clemson could be a bit sloppy.
Quoting Marlinzfan:


Don't give up just yet, it was forcast to develop slowly.


There is no longer an area of low pressure but of course it will still be monitored but I do not expect development.
I am going to work on my winter outlook for the Caribbean and the USA south of 35N.
Quoting Marlinzfan:


Yeah the Hurricanes game this afternoon vs Clemson could be a bit sloppy.

Tough to run the offense if it stays like this

Link
Thanks Ike, Sorry it took so long to get back to ya.I'm at work. Still looks like rain.
Check it out...
Link
i was not on yesterday because i was banned for i dont know what....oh well todays another day...latest info out mt office indicates things are just about as i lefet you the only thing is its going to take a little longer then i expected...a rapidly strengthing system could start to delvelop by tuesday and all interests in jamaica should pay attention on the dangerous system..its to early to tell if this system is going to affect south fla...i can tell you you people are not out of the woods yet so pay attention and i will jkeep you informed...shear has slacked off very quickly and the ssts remain 20 degrees celcius.this area will get its act together as the big high is forecast to build over the system on monday.also a trough is forecast to build in just north of the disturbance and complicate things....state tuned for more information on this dangerous situation...tacoman
618. beell
Cold Front and Surface trough

Photobucket
Quoting Weather456:
Good morning, tropics have gone dormant again and the SW Caribbean disturbance is a forecast bust.

Not only an El nino, but other complications have been hampering tropical cyclogenesis this season. - Futuremet

That's what many have been saying all season.


"When I look out my window,
What do you think I see ?…
Oh no, must be the season of the witch…"
mik i really dont know what kind of info you are gettng but you are sticking your foot in your mouth...youneed to go back and read the suface observations for the next 7 days...
Quoting tacoman:
mik i really dont know what kind of info you are gettng but you are sticking your foot in your mouth...youneed to go back and read the suface observations for the next 7 days...


Post your 7 day surface observations that you are looking at........Please help us.....LOL
Quoting severstorm:
Good Morning, So is the rain off the west coast of Fl going to make it inland or is it going to dry out? I have a big lemonade show near Ocala today. Any takers. Thank you


Good morning. What is a lemonade show? Something like a BQ cookoff?
Quoting tacoman:
tampa everyone is in for a big surprise...on tuesday all hell will break loose


Prove your forecast and show us proof
Quoting tacoman:
mik i really dont know what kind of info you are gettng but you are sticking your foot in your mouth...youneed to go back and read the suface observations for the next 7 days...


"...you've got to pick up every stitch..."
well a huge high will build over the sw car ibbean sea..to put a fly in the ointment a strong trough will develop just north of the disturbance and cause it to strengthen...the ingredient are coming together for a whoppper of a hurricane...fla just pay attentin jamaica is unjder the gun...tacoman
Quoting tacoman:
well a huge high will build over the sw car ibbean sea..to put a fly in the ointment a strong trough will develop just north of the disturbance and cause it to strengthen...the ingredient are coming together for a whoppper of a hurricane...fla just pay attentin jamaica is unjder the gun...tacoman


"When I look over my shoulder,
What do you think I see ?
Some other cat looking over
His shoulder at me
And he's strange, sure he's strange.
You've got to pick up every stitch…
Oh no, must be the season of the witch."
Quoting tacoman:
well a huge high will build over the sw car ibbean sea..to put a fly in the ointment a strong trough will develop just north of the disturbance and cause it to strengthen...the ingredient are coming together for a whoppper of a hurricane...fla just pay attentin jamaica is unjder the gun...tacoman


What is in your tacos?!!! lol
Quoting lawntonlookers:


Good morning. What is a lemonade show? Something like a BQ cookoff?

I asked back at 600 and never got an answer. I was hoping for a bbq type of thing. I'm 1.5hrs away. Nice drive and good grub. But still no response.
"With tropical season winding down, I plan to make regular posts over the next six weeks analyzing..."

Looks like it's time to remove this site from my favorites until the May timeframe next year.

I won't be giving hits to those that continue to espouse the global warming hysteria.
Quoting tacoman:
i was not on yesterday because i was banned for i dont know what....oh well todays another day...latest info out mt office indicates things are just about as i lefet you the only thing is its going to take a little longer then i expected...a rapidly strengthing system could start to delvelop by tuesday and all interests in jamaica should pay attention on the dangerous system..its to early to tell if this system is going to affect south fla...i can tell you you people are not out of the woods yet so pay attention and i will jkeep you informed...shear has slacked off very quickly and the ssts remain 20 degrees celcius.this area will get its act together as the big high is forecast to build over the system on monday.also a trough is forecast to build in just north of the disturbance and complicate things....state tuned for more information on this dangerous situation...tacoman
I thought the season was over with?
Quoting seflagamma:
Back again for a minute.


So do you all realize what today is??

A very meaningful day for those of us in South Florida.

Hurricane Wilma was blowing our asses away here in S Fla 4 years ago this morning.

What a morning it was!



what a morning 4 year ago..by this time my patio top was pulled back and banging on my family room roof. it was a long 4-5 hours of my life....
Quoting OhioCanes1667:
"With tropical season winding down, I plan to make regular posts over the next six weeks analyzing..."

Looks like it's time to remove this site from my favorites until the May timeframe next year.

I won't be giving hits to those that continue to espouse the global warming hysteria.


Science will eventually wring the truth from the debate as it always does, but it is a mistake to assume that debate is unnecessary – as that is the very foundation of America’s greatness. Public discourse creates dialogue that will formulate policy by a representative government through the ideals of democracy. It has been that way since our birth, as so to have the cries for our demise been echoed just as long.
Quoting OhioCanes1667:
"With tropical season winding down, I plan to make regular posts over the next six weeks analyzing..."

Looks like it's time to remove this site from my favorites until the May timeframe next year.

I won't be giving hits to those that continue to espouse the global warmin hysteria.

I don't believe you will be missed.
Don't let the door hit you rear end on your way out!
635. amen, brother. reasonable debate is what is so often missing in today's discussions for fear of offending someone with a different point of view. debate truly is essential :) good job, my friend!
Quoting pearlandaggie:
635. amen, brother. reasonable debate is what is so often missing in today's discussions for fear of offending someone with a different point of view. debate truly is essential :) good job, my friend!


Wait a minute, you can do that? Its not allowed by our Government anymore....Fox News just got blackballed for that........LOL j/k of course!
638. oh my.........


LOL


and it's only 9:39AM CDT!
tacoman, what's your prognosis for the upcoming Indian Ocean season?

;)
Quoting pearlandaggie:
638. oh my.........


LOL


it's only 9:39AM CDT!


Sorry i could not help it....ROFLMAO
Quoting pearlandaggie:
tacoman, what's your prognosis for the upcoming Indian Ocean season?

;)


Why did you do that for....he will be in my backyard looking at my lake for samples now!
Quoting TampaSpin:


Wait a minute, you can do that. Its not allowed by our Government anymore....Fox News just got blackballed for that........LOL j/k of course!


The Obama Administration is the best thing that's happened to Foxnews since Bill Clinton, and the "conservative” talk show hosts are LOLing all the way to the bank…
Is Lupit a Subtropical Storm?

Japanese agency calls the cyclone as a STS. The JTWC says nothing in his last forescast

Quoting torreoviedo:
Is Lupit a Subtropical Storm?

Japanese agency calls the cyclone as a STS. The JTWC says nothing in his last forescast


no, it is Severe Tropical Storm with winds of 50 knots (10-minute sustained).
Quoting pearlandaggie:
tacoman, what's your prognosis for the upcoming Indian Ocean season?

;)


[dialogue]
Music industry man: What kind of song do you want?
Jennifer Lopez: Something hot and spicy!
[melody comes on]
Jennifer Lopez: Spicier.
[melody changes]
Jennifer Lopez: Spicier!
[spicy melody comes on]

[Jennifer Lopez (aka Eric Cartman's left hand)]
Burrito. Taco taco. Burrito. Taco. Taco taco.
Don't think just because I got a lot of money,
I'll give you taco-flavored kisses, honey.
Fulfill all your wishes
with my taco-flavored kisses...

642. apparently i can't help poking the bear, either! LOL
#646 -

Good one!
i dont follow that pearl...i have enough with the atlatic hurricane season.i want to stress this the ATLANTIC SEASON is not over ...pay attenetion..dont get caught off guard.....tacoman
*snort* *cackle* LMAO!

now, i've done it!
Grrrr, it's true, I'd forgotten

However, its eyewall not seem to have pieced together like a tropical storm...


Quoting Bobbyweather:

no, it is Severe Tropical Storm with winds of 50 knots (10-minute sustained).
By some accounts, the future of the world will be at stake this December, when the crucial U.N. Climate Change Conference will be held December 7 - 18 in Copenhagen, Denmark. At that meeting, the leaders of the world will gather to negotiate an agreement to replace the 1997 Kyoto Protocol.

The world is more at stake by countries who like to start wars, kill, etc...The world is more at stake by corrupt govt officials who will make a bucket of cash off the AGW scam.

This myth has already been debunked by numerous phD scientists, just start by researching John Christy(Climatologist, served as one of the head authors of IPCC) and Roy Spencer(Climatologist, author, former NASA scientist)!

To brainwash kids and the public about this nonsense is plain wicked and evil! What people need is to be saved from eternal damnation! We've done more damage to the planet by sinning against God than anything else. Much more important- The Reason Why

657. oh my....more recording-breaking lows!

you know, it seems that whenever the cold arctic air spills into the conUS, warm air backfills its place in Siberia and the arctic...
Quoting pearlandaggie:


An increase in sun spot activity?
660. a little bit as of late...still pretty wimpy. see the latest sunspot progression...


658. okay...i'll bite....WTF is that? LOL
Quoting pearlandaggie:
657. oh my....more recording-breaking lows!

you know, it seems that whenever the cold arctic air spills into the conUS, warm air backfills its place in Siberia and the arctic...


Its usually always displaced with the opposite....Just the way The HIGHS and Lows work with each other.
664. IKE
NOUS42 KNHC 241430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT SAT 24 OCTOBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z 0CTOBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-149

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK......NEGATIVE.
3. REMARK: INVEST MISSION FOR 24/1800Z CANCELED BY
NHC AT 24/1200Z.


II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK......NEGATIVE.
SEF

663. well, if that's the case, i suppose we'll be hearing about record-breaking Siberian/Arctic heat in the coming days! LOL
661 - ah, on the upswing...wasn't someone making a correlation between increased SS activity and tropical storms?

662 - big blue marble of course!
Quoting mikatnight:
661 - ah, on the upswing...wasn't someone making a correlation between increased SS activity and tropical storms?



i wouldn't really call it an upswing as of late...check out the solar wind velocity...
the radio flux is not really picking up, either...
Quoting pearlandaggie:
663. well, if that's the case, i suppose we'll be hearing about record-breaking Siberian/Arctic heat in the coming days! LOL


OH NO......GW....did you have to say that.....LOL
Lupit appears subtropical but it's not...its undergoing extratropical transition.



As the cyclone crosses over into an asymmetric warm-core type, extratropical transition has begun. Extratropical transition should be completed through 26 October.

Pearl i would have to say your probably the expert on Solar in this forum.....i dumb as hell about this stuff.
669. i didn't say it....you did! LOL
671. not even close!
tacoman, what's your prognosis on the upcoming South Atlantic hurricane season?
I was refering to the red line "Predicted Values", I see we're at a low point now...
657. all I can say is wow..... It could be very "Cold" here.....
Even posible Tornadic Storms before it gets here....
this is or Tornado season along the Gulf Coast from now thru November,
then starts all over in Febuary when temps start to rebound....

Taco :0)
675. ah, my bad! sorry dude! ;0
Out of courisity.......when a Solar flare up happens say NOW...how long does it take to affect Mother Earth.
678. usually a couple of days...depends on the velocity with which the coronal mass ejection left the sun...
Quoting TampaSpin:
Out of courisity.......when a Solar flare up happens say NOW...how long does it take to affect Mother Earth.


8 minutes? j/k
456.. any comments on this?

Quoting dolphingalrules:


what a morning 4 year ago..by this time my patio top was pulled back and banging on my family room roof. it was a long 4-5 hours of my life....


I did a "remember Wilma" blog if you have any stories you want to tell, please go find it and leave yours!
Might have been discussed here earlier, but what do you think about this video regarding "global warming."

I'm not voicing my opinion one way or the other as this is sure to get some feelings reiled up here. Since, Dr. Masters mentioned this in the blog, I believe it is "on topic."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ddQvhdCyhe4

680. no, the charged plasma travels much more slowly than radiation leaving the sun.

edit: my bad....missed the "j/k"
Ol' 456 (670) sure knows his stuff. Always great graphics (us simple-minded folks loves them pretty pictures)...
Quoting pearlandaggie:
678. usually a couple of days...depends on the velocity with which the coronal mass ejection left the sun...


See you are the expert.....i would have guessed even longer than that.
A magnitude 7 earthquake has hit off the coast of Indonesia, according to the US Geological Survey (USGS).
The quake was reported to have occurred in the Banda Sea, near the Maluku islands to the east of East Timor.
The quake struck at a depth of 92 miles (148km), USGS reported. Indonesian authorities issued a tsunami alert.
Indonesia sits on the Pacific Ring of Fire, one of the most active areas for earthquakes and volcanic activity in the world.
Indonesia is still recovering from a major earthquake in September, which struck off the coast of Sumatra, killing more than 1,000 people.
According the the USGS, Saturday's earthquake struck 138 miles (222km) from Saumlaki, in Indonesia's Tanimbar islands.
Indonesian authorities reportedly put the quake's magnitude at 7.3.

Link
Quoting Weather456:


8 minutes?


Pretty good guess :)

While solar flare radiation is typically not dangerous to humans if they are are at Earth's surface or have proper protection, the flares can be followed by streams of high-speed particles called protons. These "proton storms" are potentially lethal to astronauts and have been known to reach Earth in as little as 15 minutes.
#677 - on the contrary, your posts are much appreciated...
Quoting Orcasystems:
456.. any comments on this?



A tropical low (left) and a tropical wave (right), upper winds are very hostile, too hostile for development.
686. if i remember my physics correctly, light travels ~3x10^8 m/s....solar flares usually give sufficient time to put satellites in protection mode before the charged particles hit the earth's magnetic field. we see the radiation long before the "storm" reaches us...kind of like a hurricane (usually) :)
There is some guy (wish I could remember his name) he uses solar flares to predict big weather events within a few day. I think he makes them near a year out. Imagine how quiet next year could be if he's on to something..
The meridional orientation of the front sure makes for an unusual looking map from SPC:

Quoting Weather456:


A tropical low (left) and a tropical wave (right), upper winds are very hostile, too hostile for development.


Conditions should improve in that area between now and the next 4 days i believe.
693. the only guy i'm aware of that does that is Piers Corbyn...i'm not sure his forecasts are that far in advance (maybe only out to 30 days). this probably isn't the guy you were thinking of.....
Quoting TampaSpin:


Conditions should improve in that area between now and the next 4 days i believe.


Where you got that from?


Shear remains hostile over the Atlantic atleast for 5 days

Quoting Weather456:


A tropical low (left) and a tropical wave (right), upper winds are very hostile, too hostile for development.


Thank you .. nice to get an experts opinion :)
I am sure they will get hyped up anyway.
Wow. You're hilarious.

Quoting pearlandaggie:
*snort* *cackle* LMAO!

now, i've done it!
699. well, i try :) but most often fail! LOL

kind of like my high school football coach used to say...."Even a blind hawg find an acorn, sometimes!"
Looks like it can vary depending on the storm. The one in Jan 2005 that was the strongest in over 50 years it peaked on earth in 15 mins where they usually take a few hours.
Quoting Weather456:


Where you got that from?


Shear remains hostile over the Atlantic atleast for 5 days



Difference of opinons in Maps i guess.....


Sorry to ofend the expert.....as Orca so put it..
New Blog
701. yep, that's true. it's very storm-dependent.