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Bahamas Blob update

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:17 PM GMT on July 05, 2006

An area of disturbed weather over the Bahama Islands is associated with an upper-level low pressure system. This low is kicking up some strong thunderstorms over the Bahamas and Cuba, but has not improved in organization today. The low is cold-cored, and is making the slow transition to a warm-cored system. It needs to have a warm core in order to develop into a tropical storm. It typically takes three or more days sitting over warm water for this process to happen (let's call today day two of its existence). Wind shear is down to 5-20 knots as of 2pm EDT, which is marginally favorable for development. Water temperatures are very favorable, 28 - 29 C. However, there is little thunderstorm activity near the center of circulation, which is southeast of Key Largo, FL. All the thunderstorm activity is well away from the center, making it unlikely that we'll see a tropical depression today or tomorrow. One of the key signs that a cold-cored system is making the transition to warm-cored is that one has substantial thunderstorm activity near the center of circulation.

The big question is if the center of circulation will be over water or land Thursday and Friday. Right now, it appears that the center is moving north-northwest, and will be over the Florida Peninsula Thursday. Most of the models indicate that the center will continue moving north-northwest, and stay over the Florida Peninsula most of Thursday and Friday. Should the center emerge into the Gulf of Mexico, or remain off the East Coast of Florida, we could see a tropical or subtropical depression by Friday. The low is expected to get picked up by a strong trough of low pressure emerging off the East Coast Friday, then get swept up the coast this weekend. Both the GFS and UKMET models predict that the low will from into a tropical or subtropical depression south of North Carolina by Saturday, and bring tropical storm-force winds to the North Carolina Outer Banks on Saturday and Massachusetts' Cape Cod on Sunday. If you have plans to be either place this weekend, keep a watchful eye on the tropics! This situtation is very similar to what we had at the end of June, when we almost had Tropical Storm Beryl hitting eastern North Carolina.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of the blob of disturbed weather over the Bahamas.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is quiet today.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update. Still think, if we see development it will be off the East Coast of Florida and then get pushed NNE. I think NC should be watching this one.
Who said Bahamas is the core?..LOL Its a trough of low pressure.
check out my story i made on katrina i put it in my blog
Anyone have a possible reason why I can't get the floater loops to load?
The Bahamas thing is still a tropical wave, and a Patsy Cline. It will fall to pieces!!!!!
hi im new, ive visited this site for like a year and never became a member. i think this system is going to do something we least expect
hurricanenerd...I like your handle!
yeah, i was going to do weathernerd but it was already taken
I don't know about anyone else....but I'm not reading, hearing or seeing much faith in what any of the "experts are forecasting this upper low to do. Once again....there is a lot of confliction in what is forecast. Even Dr. M is calling this a Bahamas thing. What?
so it needs a warm core become tropical
what is the latest on ewiniar
If the center moves over s. Fla..and drags all that convection with it we are going to get dumped on!
Well the thing is Rand, is that its a trough of low pressure. A surface reflection may form anywhere within this area.
Afternoon all. How is the ULL doing. I just got in from work, so I have not had time to look at the models and imagery.

Find all of the models, imagery, wind data, marine data and much more at StormJunkie.com. Also be sure to check out the new Quick Links for easy navigation of all the information needed to track and stay ahead of our weather.

Welcome canenerd.
weatherguy03...That's true. What's your point?
Ewiniar is a free storm. Unmodified.
No point really..LOL I guess you can call it whatever you want, thats all..LOL
Bahamas thing, S. Fla. thing..LOL
weatherguy03....Yah...lots of Blobs. I'm just focused on the only definable low pressure that is showing itself right now. Unless something else pops out of the varied convection I'll be focused there. While still over hot water this one could go tropical any time.
i have a feeling its gonna do something strange
Afternoon 03.

Got a question for ya'll

I am wondering about this "surface reflection" thing and the terminology I have heard used with ULLs spawning/transitioning to tropical systems. It seems that there are two scenarios where a ULL can cause or aid formation of a tropical system. One, the ULL actually wraps enough convection around the center and the convection stays for an extended period of time then the ULL itself can become a tropical cyclone with a warm core and low level center. Two, an ULL can spawn a tropical system. One I am pretty confident is fact. Two is the one that I have little understanding of. It also seems like Bahama Blob one would support the second way a ULL can become tropical. This system just SSE of Fla seems to support the first. You can clearly see the convection wrapping around the large circulation of the ULL (not that it will develop, but this is what has to persist in order to develop).

03-With the above said, and my complete lack of understanding sometimes, it would seemt that in this case the center could only form with in the center of circulation of the ULL?

SJ
Storm, you are not the only one. I have a bad feeling about this system, not only because of how close it is. But because of the area its in, with all the warm water and the fact that it was supposed to be "dead" today. We have not seen something develop this close to Florida and not move on shore in a while so keep our eyes on it.
This blob is just that, a blob. Its an MIAer for sure.
i have a bad feeling about it too
Junkie, its looking more and more this afternoon that the first senerio may happen, one that Dr. Jeff eluded too. Earlier today, it could of went either way. I have seen the second senerio where the surface low forms away from the ULL, most of the time to the east of it. But, you have it right Junkie. You da man!..LOL
Off-topic of the development near FL for a moment, I've been watching that large ULL spinning over the Central Atlantic for at least two weeks now, centered in the mean somewhere in the lat-long grid bounded by 20 N to 40 N and 40 W to 60 W. It has been very persistant and vigorous, with spokes of vorticity at times extending down below 15 N and as far west a Cape Hatteras. Now, note on the Tropical RAMSDIS WV loop the large upper-level high around 20 N 40 W finally pulling this ULL northeast.

It looks it may finally be the demise of this ULL, which, when centered above the Atlantic surface high, caused a lot of shear. If the large ULH moves in to replace it, could this change in the overall pattern signal the beginning of the Cape Verde season this year?
I am sandwiched between a low pressure system to the West & that Upper Level Low to the SouthEast. Nothing but dry air over Gainesville today. I am hoping that the ULL stays to the East of FL so that we have a better shot of rain. We got little or no rain from the last two tropical systems (wave & "blob") that have crossed the state. Most of the precipitation is well to the East of this one.

Accuweather isn't saying much about this system & they typically want to hype up tropical formations. The NHC isn't expecting much out of the ULL either.
It looks like this ULL will head straight up Fla.

And what is the deal with the ULL over tx slowly pushing it's way to the Gulf. That is a ULL over tx correct?
Caneman is right ! Give it up people. It's the rainy season here in Fl. Thats all we have here is a nice looking Rain.
StormJunkie...Afternoon. Then there is scenario #3. The ull center of circulation shifts towards an area of convection that it can buddy up with and go warm-core there. This one about 2:30 this afternoon. Could do it again and stay over hot water. Possible. Not much yet causing it to do much else. The whole area looks like the itcz right now.
This one did that about 2:30
The rainbow float is positively psychedelic!
Link
I'm back guys after a week and a half gone away from my home computer. I have come back to a hot muggy Cape Cod afternoon and the cold front is still to the west of us. This bahama blob may indeed form and go up the East Coast, but we just have to wait and see what happens if it goes warm core or not if it would be a system to keep great deal of attention too later this week and into this weekend.
Also something to look at would be the Northern Gulf Stream sea surface temperatures right now. One could make a great point that if this system indeed becomes warm core heading up the East Coast where those great warm temperatures are located Cape Cod Massachusetts could be dealing with a hurricane if this all pans out the way Dr. Masters has pointed out above.
Hey guys. Has anyone discussed the possibility of the ULL drifting so far to the west at a very slow rate that the TROF does not pick it up and swing it NE?
Good point Nash.

Was thinking about that a bit ago.
The ULL is moving NW right now....
look at this visible loop.Link
what you think about the Blob thats this about to come off of tx?
a person is only 100% right if another person chooses to put 100% of their confidence in what he says
Thanks for the tip 23 !)

I agree that it is moving NW right now, and think it is unlikely that it will move too far W, but anything is possible if the trough is weaker then expected. I do not think it is because you can see it still pushing the ULL over tx toward Mexico/the Gulf.

SJ
I do not think that the tx blob will do much Taz, but the ULL that can be seen on the WV, could push in to the Gulf, which over time could develop. Not likely, but it soucl happen.

SJ
: StormJunkie ok thank you for yeting me no
Hey All, 1st time poster !

hurricane 23 thanks for that loop/link. the 12th frame, due east of Miami shows a definate strengthening ? (correct term is ?) in the area where all the rain is showing up on radar, technically what is actually occuring there.

bb
Check out this graphic i made very quick.
Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us
Welcome BB...Guess it will be hard to call Bahama Blob BB now :)

Anywho, you can find a lot of the models, imagery, and marine data that we use to track these storms at StormJunkie.com.

SJ
Tooo Funny ! Didn't even think about it. Thanks SJ ! How about BB = Bahama Blob bb = BoyntonBeach ?
No, No you can be BB, hopefully there won't be too many of the other kind. I was just joking anywho. :)

SJ
56. Inyo
these large typhoons present or predicted near Japan are even showing up in the California weather discussions... apparently some of the current one may get sucked into a low and cause some unusual northern california summer rain. Let's hope the second one doesnt form as huge as some of the models predict...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA

EXTENDED...MODELS INDICATING A TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE CA
COAST BEGINNING MON AND CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. BOTH EURO
AND GFS ARE SHOWING THIS TREND. IN FACT GFS HAS SOME PRECIP INTO
NOR CA BY NEXT THU MORNING. STRENGTH AND EXTENT OF TROUGH MAY BE
INFLUENCED BY TYPHOON EWINIAR AS MENTIONED THIS MORNING. THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE TRACK OF THE STORM. GFS WANTS TO MOVE
THE STORM WEST OF JAPAN AND STALL IT AS THE STORM MISSES THE TROUGH
MOVING OUT OF CHINA. THE EURO HAS THE STORM RECURVING INTO THE
WESTERLIES BY SUNDAY. THUS IF THIS STORM IS TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON
THE DEVELOPING TROUGH OFF CA IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IN THE WED TO
THU TIME FRAME. THE IMPACTS WOULD MOST LIKELY BE TO HAVE A
STRONGER AND DEEPER TROUGH OFFSHORE CA BY THIS TIME WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL BREAKUP OF THE MARINE LAYER AND CHANCE
FOR RAIN ALONG THE NORTH COAST AS INDICATED BY THE MODELS. ANOTHER
INTERESTING FEATURE IS THAT THE EURO HAS AN EVEN STRONGER TYPHOON
IN ALMOST THE EXACT LOCATION AS EWINIAR NEXT WED. IT HAS A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 955 MB ON A VERY COURSE GRID. LETS HOPE THIS IS MODEL
MAGIC AT LEAST FOR OUR FRIENDS IN OKINAWA AND JAPAN AND POSSIBLY
TAIWAN.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO CA

EXTENDED...MODELS INDICATING A TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE CA
COAST BEGINNING MON AND CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. BOTH EURO
AND GFS ARE SHOWING THIS TREND. IN FACT GFS HAS SOME PRECIP INTO
NOR CA BY NEXT THU MORNING. STRENGTH AND EXTENT OF TROUGH MAY BE
INFLUENCED BY TYPHOON EWINIAR AS MENTIONED THIS MORNING. THERE IS
SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE TRACK OF THE STORM. GFS WANTS TO MOVE
THE STORM WEST OF JAPAN AND STALL IT AS THE STORM MISSES THE TROUGH
MOVING OUT OF CHINA. THE EURO HAS THE STORM RECURVING INTO THE
WESTERLIES BY SUNDAY. THUS IF THIS STORM IS TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON
THE DEVELOPING TROUGH OFF CA IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IN THE WED TO
THU TIME FRAME. THE IMPACTS WOULD MOST LIKELY BE TO HAVE A
STRONGER AND DEEPER TROUGH OFFSHORE CA BY THIS TIME WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL BREAKUP OF THE MARINE LAYER AND CHANCE
FOR RAIN ALONG THE NORTH COAST AS INDICATED BY THE MODELS. ANOTHER
INTERESTING FEATURE IS THAT THE EURO HAS AN EVEN STRONGER TYPHOON
IN ALMOST THE EXACT LOCATION AS EWINIAR NEXT WED. IT HAS A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 955 MB ON A VERY COURSE GRID. LETS HOPE THIS IS MODEL
MAGIC AT LEAST FOR OUR FRIENDS IN OKINAWA AND JAPAN AND POSSIBLY
TAIWAN.



wow i got a 955mb storm comeing my way?
JP, I am discussing possibilities ! The chance for Bahama Mama to develop are slim and none .
they just put a 1011L off the Texas coast Link
Eastern and North gulf pressure report.
buoy 42036 loc. at 28.5 and 84.5 pressure is 29.94 24 hrs. ago 30.01 water temp 87.4F

buoy 42039 loc. at 28.8 and 86.02 pressure is 29.96 24 hrs ago 30.03 water temp 86.7f 2 days ago pres was 30.20.

present pres. at pensacola airport 29.95 lowest I seen here since Alberto

with these water temps we better hope nothing heads our way.

lot of rain to our west today area is suppose to head our way tommorow and increase our chance hope so we need it
Question:
The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season and the 2004 Atlantic Hurricane Season both had 4 major land falling hurricanes in the US, but yet the 2005 season was more destructive and costlier than 2004. What factors contributed to the difference between the two seasons in terms of damages and deaths?
NB: Major in terms of Effects not wind speeds.

Leave comments ta my blog.

NAtlanticCyclone welcome back!
How will 1011L affect Bee Bee (BB)?
65. MZT
Surface pressures in south FLA still not too impressive. 1013-1014 MB range.
this is the conclusion to yesterdya's answer
The Question I posted on July 4, 2006 about Accuweather and The National Weather Service got some interesting responses, and thanks all who responded. Both the National Weather Service and Accuweather are great weather companies but there is friction between the two about free weather data availability to the public as one company criticized the other of giving free weather data to the public. Doesnt the public has a right to free weather information? The two company should come to an agreement and work as one head to provide free weather information to the public.weather affects all of us in many ways possible. But on the other hand, the services provided by buoys, weather stations, etc. have to be paid for. There is no possible conclusion to this debate but with websites like Weather Underground, Weathercore, The Weather Channel, etc. we dont have much to worry about. More at my blog.
jphurricane2006 what you think the tx Blob you think it as a ch?
: jphurricane2006 yes you are right
jphurricane, if it does have a chance, and I know this is a wild assed guess, where do you think it will go?
"the National Weather Service and Accuweather are great weather companies but there is friction between the two about free weather data availability to the public as one company criticized the other of giving free weather data to the public. Doesnt the public has a right to free weather information?"

i am going to try and be nice...... i think this comment is just an "oversight" by the poster....

the data we get from the NHC and NOAA is not free..... it is paid by taxes..... taxes paid by individuals...... in reality, there is very little in life that is "free".....

you may not be directly paying, but trust me, YOU ARE paying indirectly.....

also worth mentioning, i wouldnt give a plug nickel for all of inaccuweathers services......
I just ran the Caneman Super Ensemble with a hint of NOGAPS thrown in for good measure.
The blob will not impact the sunny state of Florida anything higher than a blob.

Caneman feels confidence is high in the forecast.

Besides, Caneman hates blobs, especially tropical blobs in and around Florida.

Later tonight, Caneman will be singing praises to the Anti-hurricane god and will offer a destroyed tropical blob as a sacrifice of good omens to come.
Hello everyone, I have been watching this sight for sometime now. I have to say it is a way to learn this weather stuff with everyones input, it has made things easier for me to unserstand. However I do have a very weird question. What if Mr. Bob Blob were to get together with Mr. Tx Blob. Is it possible and if so what could happen? I know this may be a silly question to all of you, however it is something on my mind as of late. Since the presures here are dropping some.
lol cane :)
Great job Caneman! I like your thinking:)
Caneman, I too hate blobs (I dated one once) And I will offer a shot of cane rum and a chicken (popeyes) to appease the anti-hurricane gods.
Ok Thanks!!
RedRobin
Correction. The model was run with the NOBLOBS ensemble as a baseline measurement. The NOGAPS was NOT run at this time.

Caneman apologizes for the confusion.

Say NOto tropical blobs!

Say Yesto wind shear and dry air intrusion!
Red, if you look at the WV loop, you can see the dry air pushing down from Canada is the trough that will pick up the Fla ULL and move it NE. This same trough should prevent the TX ULL from moving to the E for the time being because it is on the other side of the trough. So it is very unlikely that they will meet up. Now if two tropical systems ever meet up then hypotheticaly we should see them rotate around each other in the right conditions. There is a name for this, but I can not remember it right now. Fujira effect or something like that, but I know I totaly messed the name up.

Anywho, welcome and like jp said, there are no stupid questions.

SJ

Thanks jp. I typed it several times with the W and the J, but just did not get it to look right. :)

Thanks again
SJ
thelmores...the conclusion was based on a summary of responses that i got yesterday in relation to the quesion i posted Accuweather Vs The national Weather Service
Could someone give me a link to listen to the Tropical Round Table, I seem to hear something different. Thanks.
BB has really pulled the center of circulation alot tighter on the ULL as it has approached the SE tip of FL. A little convection is making it's way to the circulation as well. Like I mentioned earlier, this one wants to avoid land. I'll hazard a guess & say this is where is starts tracking NNE up the east coast of FL, atleast for now.
Thanks Stormjunkie! I understand it now. As well as see why!!! I just want this silly Blob to leave us here in Tx. But got to thinking what if? Since it looks like it is moving of the coast.
Thanks SJ
Red
93. Inyo
We pay for the NWS through taxes because there's no way any private weather company will be able to maintain a fleet of sattelites, hurricane hunter aircraft, buoys, computer models, etc, etc. The military also needs this data. So, the government will always be the ones to collect weather data. Accu-weather just thinks they should be able to charge us twice for the same thing. Accuweather is in my opinion just a 'dumbed down' interpretation of NWS data... as such, big companies without time to anylize all the nws data will pay accuweather for data sometimes. Unfortunately, its not very good quality. I don't understand why anyone would use accu-weather over just the NWS data.
No problem Red. If you look at that same WV loop, you can see the ULL over TX, and it does seem to be pushing towards the Gulf. If it makes it, or if it makes it under the blob of convection then it may have a chance to develop, although I have not looked at any of the conditions it would have to encounter.


Maybe Sky, but I think it will head N to NNW a little longer.

SJ
Hey guys expect some heavy downpours across southflorida in the coming hours as this ULL continues to move NW or WNW.
has the pressure dropped around the ULL in south FL?
Never mind, blond moment.....
what are tunnels?
IR loop....

Is the convection to the far east part of this ULL?
Remember the ULL is to the Southeast of Keylargo.
cyclone lives in mobile hes talking about renovating the old bankhead
through the mobile river so trafficis not as congested in the george wallace
tunnel he is just try to help mobiles traffic problem i see the same scifi
rerun is on again this week beware of the blob starring steve mcqueen my bad wrong blob again lol
seriously the blob off texas looks better than bahama blob 3.
curious though if this system is to turn ne why are they saying the tropical wacve over and under
cuba will go due west? and one last thing i heard the term accuhype used a lot lately then this must
super hyper hyped wunder blob or is it blog lol
LOL Saint!
skyepony, i think you have hit it on the nail......

our ull has been heading for the tip of florida, and seems to have not been able to make up its mind...... was heading nw towards the gulf..... and now to my untrained eyes to be heading n-nne.... if this continues, it could track up the east coast of florida, and possible develop tropical "characteristics", and in a day or two, a TD is not out of the question....

very observant on your part, and accurate i believe! ;)

guess we will have to wait and see if ths is a true change in direction to the n-nne or just a wobble! ;)
bay buddy that blob off west/la remember that blob in 1997
that came off in the same area also in july what it bcame
bayou la batre got 41 inches of rain it was hurricane danny
Hi All weatherguy03 said that it was going to go Up the East Coast a few hours ago. He knows what he is talking about.

Maybe you might want to go read. Poof.
can somebody please expound on the fact that earlier today, the ull seemed to have a much larger center of circulation...... but now appears to have tightened up to a much smaller center of circulation.....

if it has a smaller center, does it make it "more intense" and more likely to form mid to lower level circulations?

anybody? :)

frame the latest floater loop, it appears our ull never actually made landfall.....
Yeah, I worked at Scott Paper. It took me an hour to get to work. Normally a 15 min drive.
Looks like quite a wobble there. Interesting to see where this ends up.
hey raysfan..... i did read......

its still speculation.....(educated guess?)

hard to take credit, or whatever..... i was simple agreeing with skyepony (and weatherguy03 for that matter)

poof???
thelmores. not directed at you . Sorry about that one.

Poof= gone.
All the pressure tendencies in the area are Rising and are hovering in the 30.00 range...
Link
but the big boy bay was freddy ive told mobal outrocket about mel showers with a full afro standing in mobile bay with no water in it
with all the hype of these recent storms including our 100 billion dollar baby here on ms coast fredrick and camille seem forgotten even as powerful as they were
Better Link..
Link
randrewl, agreed..... looks like it turned on a dime.....

the 2315 and 2345 had a n-nne motion....waiting on 0015 to see if this trend holds up....

if this feature never makes landfall, it would seem to me to be much more likely to develop into "something" tropical......
thel, I think that the ULL is starting to fill in with cloud cover. I also think that the center may be further W of where it appears to be. I put it just off the southern tip of Fla mid way between Flamingo and Key Largo. Which means it will be heading up through the everglades. Just my take.
If any LLC forms its seems to be 50-75NM NW of Key Largo....based on pressure history this afternoon...
I agree Stormjunkie there is no East component at this point...Off of Cape Sable area...
StormJunkie - The outflow boundaries from the afternoon Cuban thunderstorms are approaching south FL and the Keys, so you could be right, the boundaries may be passing under the ULL (which would show lack of any surface or much mid-level circulation there). After all of the daytime convection due to heating and outflow boundary collisions die down, it will be interesting to see just where the real tropical convection fires up a little later tonight.
Link
Sat. Link of The Blob part 2
stormjunkie, i agree with you now, based up the 0015 frame, the ull appears "directly" over the southern tip of florida, and seems to have "filled in" somewhat....... not sure if i understand all this....

this ull and attempt to transition to a warm core system seems confusing to me......
805 pm eastern tropical discussion has uppl low moving west through fla straights
and dissipating check it yourself in other words a rain shower
Just a comment for thi blog.
Why is it that you all are into Accu-Crap?
This is Weatherunderground why would you bring what they say there here. Joe B. Is really just full himself.

If you want to be with Accu-Crap go pay the membership there and leave here. I believe the it is
Matrixx.com
this blob is like a box of Chocolates, you never know "what" you're gonna get! LOL
Rays, you don't sound like yourself tonight? What gives?

SJ
allright raysi love you dear but dont pick on joe
i posted a statemnt last night that i dont think got through i like accu pro i dont care much for accuweather there is a big difference.
i assure you they on the w/c blog impact weathers blog and accuweathers blog say the same things about master and others as you say here about them ive read them. im not close minded ilike different opinions and enjoy my subscription to accupro.
but to all us sourtherners this should sink in if you are a aubrn fan you hate alabama and vice versa oif you are a gator fan you hate fsuor miami and vice versa or up north osu and michigan so why keep bringing it up i like sevearl outlets including accupro impact skeetobite and this one for entertainment
and fellowship but without gregory i miss a lot of expertise
Just tired of hearing some on this blog hype Accu-crap.
When there are others good places that they can get there info from. And your site is one of the SJ.

It is like me going to your site and telling everyone to go to someone's.

I know some on here don't like accu-crap. But hate it when others come here HYPING them.
Well.....it's a complicated scenario. The only certainty is that if some spin moves it's way into the Gulf then there will be someone stirring on this blog.
137. mobal
Deep breaths Ray...
I think it making a run for the gulf. The buoys on Tampa bay side are unusually low.
Good evening everyone!

I have been watching this all day, and it now looks too have shifted more to the north.

Watch ya think SJ?
Thel, I don't know if you saw my question earlier in this blog. But, from what I understand
A ULL can create/become tropical in a couple of ways.

1. The ULL can transition or work its way down to the surface.

2. A cyclone can sometimes form on the outer edges of a ULL. Usually the E side.

3. A dominant area of convection can persist and the ULL move towards/under it during a transitional phase.

I think this is how it goes for the most part.

Thanks to WG03 who helped me with this earlier.

SJ
LOL!!! I dont know how mel got into his car with that hair. My dads favorite bar was on the causway, when he saw what was left; I dont think he cried that much when JFK was shot.
Saint....are you saying that they feed the masses hyped up bs on regular Accuweather....but if you want the real deal that can save your life you have to pay extra to get the premium hype on AccuPro.
SJ,

Just wanted to let you know that I really like your site, it is well put together,easy to navigate, and full of the type of info beginners can use to get started in tracking storms.
I read it jp. I dont think Hallmark could have done any better.
Don't know rescue, there is a little dry air to the W and NW of it, and a lot depends on if it finds enough water during its curve to the NE, which will happen at some point. I don't know if it can make tropical status or not, but I am hoping that we get some rain out of it.

Have you seen how warm the waters are off the GA/SC coast rescue?

SJ
If it follows the pressure contour across the boundary it will go across the state and come out near Sarasota and then NW and out from there.
cosmic one more time if you are a auburn fan you hate ala or vice versa mobal you know where imcoming from do you know any auburn fans that will
say something nice about bama or any bama fans say anything nice about auburn lol and mobal ill ask you this if the wave which is at 20n 78 wis moving
15 mph to the west or wnw how is the upper low just north of it moving nne and supposed to go to nc when the wave is supposed to go to s/tx and look at our
la/tx blob could that be the making of son of danny its the same time and place that daddy danny started lol. also
if mobile and jackson county get another freddy will mel grow that afro again
SJ..... i saw your 3 examples, guess i am just having a hard time picturing the actual "dynamics" of how it happens....

sorta wish i had an actual example of each to study, and "watch" the transition on satellite/radar..... like to go surfing, and see what i could find.....

but i am tired, my 13 and 20yr old sons wore me out last nite with fireworks! dont want to see another firecracker till next july! LOL
Rays what are you talking about...I have not once referenced AcuWeather....????
Wooops...Joe Bastardi...I get it now......
Thanks rescue

Nice poem jp.

Tampa- not to you either. Sorry.
there are few here that know who I am talking about. But don't think that any of them are on now. Left before I could post.
Rammer Jammer Yellow Hammer Give-em Hell Alabama!!!
i know what your talking about Sainthurrifan. Auburn sucks!!!
i agree with Masters.
Jp- just to let you in on something I am a woman. LOL.
Alot think that.
161. cjnew
She***
SJ,

We had the search at Folly for that drowning victim yesterday, I was was diving in 30 feet of water with a constant temp of 86 degrees.

Thats with the gulf stream still out about 75 mile or so!

Our shrimp are gonna be pink like the ones from Florida before to long!
whay is there a gap between convection to the east and center to the west??? anyone
I think it could turn into a tropical or subtropical deppression or storm.
i don't get that either funhouse23
Saint...I'm an old SEC guy, but your reference here makes no sense and is not on topic or answering my question. I'll try another question. How much is AccuPro? $400 a year?
what does lol mean
Ahhhhhh - it looks like a reform up - just a little SW of itself in the straight.
bama weather a dog was in a bar with a alabama sweater. big bama fan
got all excited when bama beat tennesee chattanooga so a man asked him boy that dog
gets excited when bama beats a rootipoot what would he do when they beat auburn the owner of the dog hung his head
and said i dont know the dog is only 4 years old wwwwwwwaaaaaaaaarrrrrr eagle lol see what i mean cosmis we just cant
cosmic it means you like who you like and i can ot change your mind nor can you change mine
180 dollars a year which is way less than i bet you spend on a cell phone which i want own
SST'S
Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us
jph2006: In the gulf of mexico portion they say the low will dissipate while it moves west. Yet on the atlantic discussion it descibes that same low as very well-defined. My question how could a low be considered well-defined if its dissipating?

It is well defined at the time of the discussion but they expect it to dissipate in the future.
Actually thats another boundary probably it does seem to be headed west.
Loved the ode JP

I see this heading NNE at just about 26N & 80W. Center not actually on land & wouldn't be suprised if it stayed off it.

The TX Blob does look more interesting. On the WV you can see the ULL in TX making a run to join the big blob of convection fixing to move off the coast. Totally agree with ya on this one SJ.

Thelmores TX blob is a good example of #3 of those examples SJ provided. Example 1 would be a ice skater spinning, with her convection (arms) out away from the body & then drawing them in close to spin faster.

Yeah, I'm posting & wondering away... again.
OK Saint. We'll agree to disagree about Joe B. Thanks for the answer. I hope and think you know that I was just having a little fun on this thankfully slow night in the tropics. I have no beef with you. I look forward to your posts.
Is that the start of a new center of circulation to the SW JFLORIDA??
Those SST's are looking mighty hot and if this disturbance can follow the Gulf Stream up the East Coast then all hell turns loose for the New England coastline. Once Dr. Masters mentioned my area for anything tropical I start to get a little anxious that something will actually happen up here, but I wasn't here last week for that disturbance that almost became Beryl so I don't know exactly what he would say for this, but he was right about Wilma last year.
182. MZT
Circulation of the FLA low seems to have become compressed - moved east a bit. With that cold front coming in, I think this will get pushed out to sea soon - won't make it to the gulf.
i agree MZT. The florida UUL is going to stay on the eastern half of florida.

certainly not cosmic i remember you last year taking up for folks taht were abused by st and lefty
and hey guys i love to pick and do not think im ever mad because i respectfully agree to disagree except when the people are attacked personall by lenny
that makes me mad. and what about the question if the wave is forecast to move west to s/tx why is the upp low forecast to move to nc they are very close to each other the wave is at 20n 78w
the low at 24n 81w seems like they dont know
I think something is about to happen. Look at the radar as it approaches the trough and check out the area SW of Cuba.
texas blob looks like its going to get blown away by shear over the next day or two. looks better now but I think the NHC is right and it will dissipate tonight.
Thanks Skye, I was going to use the Tx example for thel as well. The Fla system is a tru tranistion where the center is trying to fill in
come on bama weather what about the little dog lol
warrrrrrrrrrrrrrr eeeeeeeeeaaaagggggllllle
wait the NHC said the florida blob is going to dissipate tonight. while it moves west. It looks like its moving N to me. now i am just confused.
hey saint good joke...live it up while you can because we all know this streak wont last forever. rooollllllll Tiiiiiiiidde!!!
area sw of cuba is a tropical wave moving wnw at 15
knots thats the question no one seems to be able to awnser if the wave is moving wnw
and is expected to impact se/tx why is the blob which is very close to it supposed to go nne
i guess evveryones stumped
thelmores: having a hard time picturing the actual "dynamics" of how it happens

Just some thoughts.

Masters mentions a process lasting a few days. SJ lists three scenarios. I think all of them require persistent convection that pumps enough warm air upwards to dilute the cold air. The upper level circulation also has to change which is the part I have the most trouble envisioning. I see these upper lows spin for days. That could be a lot of momentum to overcome, but then they do finally dissipate. I think if the circulation gets stretched out (shears apart) by other things going on in the upper air could contribute.

The first Bahamas Blob developed a surface circulation to the west of the ULL off of West Palm Beach. When the surface circulation moved northward, the upper low was getting stretched NE and SW (if I remember right). Then the surface circulation showed some legs but hit land.

The surface circulation yesterday was directly under the upper low. That upper low moved SW and the surface low went pfffft very quickly. Sounds like the upper low was "working its way" to the surface. Convection transfers the momentum or the wave had enough of a cyclonic circulation to allow the upper air momentum to align with enough surface air momentum to reinforce the cyclonic turning.


yeah i agree with Skyepony
bamaweatherwatcher, Auburn fans are confused, Bama fans are awaiting further data.
bama i live on ms coast usm grad brett farve university but always a big auburn fan i will sat this though for a small sate to have 2 quality football programs is
something for you folks to be proud of
bappit is what you saying sort of like what we saw with alberto before it finally made it to the surface? I remember it spinning off little surface circulations one after another until it finally got its act together after a couple of days
well no one can awnser the question why will the wave go to s/tx when blob goes ne when they are that close together
wheres the awnser lol
The area that is off texas looks like it has potential to develop and the area SE of Cuba also i think has some opportunity in the next few days.
good one baybuddy.

Thanks Saint...we arnet good at too many things but we try really hard at football!!
Since the wave has no real convection with it, it is not affected by upper air momentum. One slides over the other like LSU and Southern passing in the night.
The area off texas has some decent wind shear over it. Forecasted to for the next two days by the GFS. The wave sw of cuba should end up in a better environment. At least give us something to look for.
Bermuda high is building - I think this system is being released.
This ULL is now begining to move into florida.
From my blog:

IMH(and unqualified)O... The W GOM Blob has a greater chance of developing than the current BOB. The current Hou/Gal radar shows the ULL over SE TX dropping to the south. The GOM IR satellite loop indicates a very impressive cold cloud top mass very near and to the south of the ULL. Also, surface pressures (Hooks, IAH, CLL, Ellington) have been dropping fairly steadily over SE TX today and especially since yesterday and Monday. Finally, over the next 12-24 hours, shear is expected to be much more conducive to (although not ideal for) development over the W GOM than the E Atlantic.

Bottom line, I give the W GOM blob/ULL a 35% chance to become a TD, 25% chance to become a TS, and only 10% chance to become a hurricane. BOB only gets 25%, 15%, and 5%.

Any thoughts?
Alberto formed from a wave, not an upper level low. Different story.
Feel free to respond here, of course, or I would love the attention on my own blog. :-)
JF, what does "being released" mean?
can somebody give me an approx cordinates for the blob SW of cuba.. I see the big blob at centerd at 78W and 20N, but it seems as if it gets getting pulled N by the UUL off the coast of Florida
What do you mean by released?? JFL
Alright all, I must get to bed. See ya'll tomorrow.

Nice WV loop

And for those who have not seen, StormJunkie.com has all the models, imagery. marine data, and more that you need to stay ahead of our weather.
JF what about it being released???
JF what do you mean released??
214. WSI
Re: Bermuda High is building

This map from WU shows a good representation of the pressures in the Atlantic.

weathercore.com
bama on the tropical disscussion the blob at 20n 78w
is a tropical wave its moving wnw at 15knots if a low in this trough forms there
its certainly not going to nc and katrina remeber
was forecasted to turn up the west fla coast then they moved it to applach then to western pnhdle when ray charles could seeit
was going much further west if this happens the showers off the fla coast
will become a speckled trout system
funhouse: whay is there a gap between convection to the east and center to the west???

I see comments in the forecast discussions how an ULL tends to pull air upwards on their eastern side and force air down on their western sides. I guess that this dynamical forcing (?) is caused by how the air is moving and how the earth rotates but I don't know the physics exactly.

The ULL over Texas initially had some convection way off by San Angelo near the center and some convection along the coast. I think different processes are involved at each location?? In between there was less convection. Given that the northward fetch is less as you approach the center, I think there would be a smaller area affected by the forcing and hence less chance of convection. Hence a gap.
The frontal boundary ahead of it is dissipating/relocating. The system will become associated with systems further west.
219. MZT
The heat available in the loop current and south of NOLA is very noteworthy... even down to 200 meters. Plus another hot spot south of the isle of Pines.

I still think we're going to see at least two major gulf storms this year. The shear is just toying with us for now.
By the way if anyone is concerned about our coastal wetlands check this site out: www.joinacf.org. My wife is the Executive Director
Ya I see a gap!
jf thats what i think but people i respecton here with alot of experience think ne turn i say the area under cuba is the real possibility or texas/la blob
lookin' like the wait and see game must be played for all 3 areas or blobs, whatever you want to call them.
Atlantic side: Station 41010 - CANAVERAL EAST 120NM East of Cape Canaveral : 30.01 in

GOM side: Station 42003 - E GULF 260 nm South of Panama City, Fl. : 29.97 in

Not much difference but still there is a difference and it probably should be the other way around if it is going north.
seems to me that sometimes, these ull when they hit land, sometimes will transfer some energy to the surface, which in most cases would be no big deal..... but considering the location of this ull, any transfer to the surface that hit open water, whether it be gulf, or atlantic.....east coast of florida looks conducive to any development, should it materialize in that direction....

looking at the miami composite, we may have to call this the "swamp blob"! LOL
228. MZT
I'm not expecting either of these speculative systems to amount to anything.

The TX one did put out some nice cold tops, but I just don't think it's going to advance far enough into the Gulf to develop.

The FLA one appears to already be interacting with the advancing front. Looks to me like circulation is beginning to meet resistance on a diagonal line from Port Charlotte to Cape Canaveral. I think the pocket of low shear that it's in will shrink, and it will get shredded or moved offshore.
229. MZT
Oh well, no point blogging late for these little blobbies! Maybe I will get some nice rest, if there no more firecrackers from the neighbors tonight. :-)
alright forget the facts!! someone tell me what your GUT feelings are on these areas of interest. Anybody think any of them are going to form?
alright im out...check with you all in the morning!
bama, none of these blobs will blow up into a tropical storm overnight - if anything develops it will happen slowly..
just catching up on everyone's comments above. Most of the daytime convection over the Bahamas and Florida has died down, and what is left doesnt seem to be anything to get too excited or concerned about tonight. I think that the Florida ULL is over extreme SW FL moving WNW or NW, and there is a circulation at some level on the radar loop coming off of the SW FL coast over Gulf at this time. The fact that it so hard to locate makes me think that it is most likely dissipating. There may be another small circulation at the surface south of Miami but I dont think it will amount to much.

The activity off of the Texas coast is interesting, but the shear over the Western GoM is above 30 kts over a large area, so I think it will be hard for anything to form there in the near term. The convection currently off the Texas coast looks to be due to upper air divergence. In the longer term, it could get interesting if the Texas ULL drops into the Gulf and gets left behind after the trough axis passes to the east.


The ULL currently over south Florida has no chance of development, as long as it is over land. The Florida system earliest chance of development, if at all, will be Friday. This system, at that time may emerge over the Atlantic, east of Jacksonville. The Se Texas ULL has even less chance. This system currently appears to be moving ese, and will run along the La coast, before turning north ahead of that Florida system. The flow around that Texas system is going to help catch and swing that Florida system North, and then NNE.
I'M FINALLY BACK :D

I was away from home, with no television, no internet, and no radio. Now I have about 2 weeks of catching up to do.
hey louastu, welcome back - now don't OD on the blogging, ok?
Welcome back, lou! We haven't been formally introduced, but I CAN tell you that Alec missed you really bad while you were away...

Bring that blob on up to eastern NC... we'll show it who the boss is!
GetReal - The models don't show the trough digging much until it gets near the east coast, and the upper-level high over north central Mexico looks to be strong. I think the scenario you posted above is most likely one, but I will still want to watch that Texas ULL until I see it getting pulled north by the trough.
hey guys is there anyone on here from miami?
240. IKE
That ULL over Florida is going to get caught up in the trough coming down...then shunted NNE maybe brushing the outer banks of NC before continuing up to at or east of Long Island. Neither the NAM or GFS strengthens it much...only to 1016 mb. The NAM keeps it further east and as a fish low totally.

I don't think it's ever going to amount to much.

The NAM does keep the latest Texas blob in the westen gulf as a 1016 mb low and has it crossing back into Texas...looks like after the high builds in after this trough moves out.

I guess you shouldn't compare one year to another one..but last year Cindy made landfall on July 6th in SE LA and Dennis was intensifying...ultimately into a cat 4 hurricane.

Heck...it's been almost a year...next week...since Emily formed.

This year...so far..is showing a pattern of cold fronts coming thru the southeast..which almost never happens in the summer. Really not conducive for tropical development.

Following a ULL this year vs. last years once in a lifetime season...what a difference!
i agree the ULL is now over land and development is unlikely.

Here's the 1030 Outlook....
000
ABNT20 KNHC 060217
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT WED JUL 5 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NORTHWARD
ACROSS CUBA...THE BAHAMAS...AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AT THIS TIME.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
[ dont see the tx blob doin anything but getting sheared...no development at all...however i will watch the fla blob with much interest
Ike - You are right that the last couple of years (especially last year) have many of us to the point that our eyes are glued to every little perturbation. I've been obsessing all day, even though I didn't really expect anything to happen, but just in case, after witnessing last years incredible events.
Hurricane23 asked about other bloggers in Miami. If ya follow your local forecast link, near the bottom is a list of bloggers from your area. I happened to have your Nexrad radar up blob watching so I'll link ya.

I see that BB has now reformed smack in the middle of south FL. I'm really not impressed with it to stay up. Convection has died way down & that trough is coming for it.
245. IKE
The pattern this year is different. This might be a normal year...multiple storms in August and September and that's about it. Not to say a major hurricane may not hit the US somewhere, but this looks nothing like 2005.

If it was 2005, that ULL might be a TS or cat 1 hurricane by now...but it's not happening that way so far in 2006.
246. IKE
I hadn't realized it until I read, but the east PAC has had ZERO named storms so far in 2006. The seasons almost 2 months old there. Geez.

The folks at the NHC are probably leaning back in the chairs and saying..this has been a breeze(no pun intended) so far.
IKE I dno't know where you are coming up with that forecast. The sheer is the only thing holding the cap on tropical development. The heat is building.
IKE: Aletta May 30th 2006
250. IKE
I'm just talking about what's happened so far and what appears to me to be a normal tropical season. And it is unusual for cold fronts to make it to central Florida in July. September..maybe..but not July.
252. IKE
My bad....I was reading June. I had forgotten about May...sorry.
guys how can i post a pick in the photogallery so people can rate it.thanks adrian
256. IKE
I reread my posts...I never said this year was slow. I said it looked like a normal season. I remember when I was a kid and Eloise hit the Panama City area the end of September right about where I lived or within 20-30 miles. That was the E storm the end of September. I never said this year was slow and I did say I shouldn't compare 2006 to last year, but it's so obvious...
I think it might go poofy for a little while. There are some interesting surface pressures in the personal weather stations around Bonita Springs. (a few 99.93's )There is some kind of trough the blobby is interacting with now that extends SW acros the GOM from there Theres a high I think moving along with it zoom in to sw Florida to see it.
jphurricane2006 you mean to tell me that the strong cold front that was going to hit FL is not forcast to be as storng or not going to hit FL any more
261. IKE
This from this faternoons Miami, Fl. discussion...As ridge builds in Thursday night into Friday...bulk of moisture and
convergence will lie north of area...so will continue a downward
trend in probability of precipitation. Trough amplifying across the eastern Seaboard will
send a weakening cold front likely washing out just north of the
lake.

Reads like central OR even south Florida to me.
263. IKE
*afternoons*
yea i would have to say if i would compare any year with 2006 that year might be 2004.in 2004 we didnt have our first storm till august and then of course u all what happened after that.
Question:
The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season and the 2004 Atlantic Hurricane Season both had 4 major land falling hurricanes in the US, but yet the 2005 season was more destructive and costlier than 2004. What factors contributed to the difference between the two seasons in terms of damages and deaths?
NB: Major in terms of Effects not wind speeds.


leave answers at my blog
Pretty big flare south of cuba right now....probably wont amount to much.
Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us
Look off the coast of NE Florida - is that the UUL zipping off into the horizon on the other side of some shear ????
270. IKE
My mistake jp...I try to reread my posts before I post them, but I missed that word. Still wish you could edit on here.
yep...lets if it persists threw the night.persistance will be the key,as it is with alot of things in the tropics.
edit yea for sure.i wish u could look over ur post before u post it.also wish we could use large images.
Watch the Cuba flair up the shear makes a complete circle around it. Wonder if that means anything.
all the thunderstorms that were over the bahamas have gone POOF!the only thunderstorm complex that remains is the one SE of cuba.
and that flare also seems to on the same path.Iam sure convection will refire once again tommorow.
well night evereone keep in eye on thing for me
Posted By: hurricane23 at 10:06 PM PDT on July 05, 2006.
edit yea for sure.i wish u could look over ur post before u post it.also wish we could use large images

tell aron in his blog that you would like to have some in like that ok
Theres lots of activity this year a whole lot. It just all seems to be really high up. Well I'll let the night shift take over. night
281. cjnew
thats interesting
The following is an excerpt from the Monterey, CA AFD from this PM. It references typhoon Ewiniar
and the potential for it to bring a rare rain event to coastal Norcal and also the possibility of a stronger W. Pac. cyclone next week.


GFS WANTS TO MOVE
THE STORM WEST OF JAPAN AND STALL IT AS THE STORM MISSES THE TROUGH
MOVING OUT OF CHINA. THE EURO HAS THE STORM RECURVING INTO THE
WESTERLIES BY SUNDAY. THUS IF THIS STORM IS TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON
THE DEVELOPING TROUGH OFF CA IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IN THE WED TO
THU TIME FRAME. THE IMPACTS WOULD MOST LIKELY BE TO HAVE A
STRONGER AND DEEPER TROUGH OFFSHORE CA BY THIS TIME WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL BREAKUP OF THE MARINE LAYER AND CHANCE
FOR RAIN ALONG THE NORTH COAST AS INDICATED BY THE MODELS. ANOTHER
INTERESTING FEATURE IS THAT THE EURO HAS AN EVEN STRONGER TYPHOON
IN ALMOST THE EXACT LOCATION AS EWINIAR NEXT WED. IT HAS A CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 955 MB ON A VERY COURSE GRID. LETS HOPE THIS IS MODEL
MAGIC AT LEAST FOR OUR FRIENDS IN OKINAWA AND JAPAN AND POSSIBLY
TAIWAN.
283. melli
JFlorida - it appears the blob is in a wind shear dead zone - although some of is being pulled north (caught by the trough over the eastern US??)- http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8wvir.html

The 'shear tendency' for the area in discussion, will drop rapidly, making things interesting...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html

Looking at the water temps....looks ripe for a baddie, of course, the wind shear is ripping everything apart.
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2006185gosst.png

I haven't been watching the gulf the last few days, but I thought nothing was happening (no churning TS), yet the water temps decreased (marginally, but visibly).

Strange summer, July fronts coming down into the FL peninsula...

Excerpts:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
315 AM EDT THU JUL 6 2006

.DISCUSSION...

.CURRENT...UPPER LEVEL VORTEX APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS IT CONTINUES ITS SLOW DRIFT NORTH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NOCTURNAL MARINE SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE MARINE ZONES FROM JUPITER INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH...WITH BETTER COVERAGE ALONG AND SEAWARD OF THE WEST WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. MOVEMENT IS INDICATIVE OF DEEPENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS STEERING FLOW ADJUSTMENTS ARE BEING REALIZED AS A RESULT OF THE VEERING SYNOPTICS.
[...]
.DAY1 (TODAY-TONIGHT)...INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL VORTEX WILL GIVE WAY TO A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. IT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NORTH FLORIDA BY FRIDAY MORNING. THUS THE CURRENT SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA PROMPTING THE GRADUAL TRANSITION TO A SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW BY THIS AFTERNOON.
[...]
.DAY2 AND DAY3 (FRIDAY-SATURDAY)...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES FROM NORTH FL INTO CENTRAL FL ON FRIDAY AND WILL REMAIN A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION INTO SATURDAY. UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO DIP SOUTH ACROSS THE PENINSULA ON FRIDAY AND WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT.
[...]
MIDNIGHT on the ITCZ -- July-5/6 2006



Great image there ScienceCop.

Hows your evening going? guygee as well.
Midnight on the ITCZ....send your camels to bed...

(only us old folks are gonna get that one)
Upper level low in my back yard, Cuba blob being pulled up with it. I'm in for a rainy day.
correction : It's a broad surface low .
Wow, if you look closely, the ULL has just emerged off the FL Pen around Marco Island. It appears to be moving with a more west componet. Now it appears to have some organized thunderstorm activity since it has hit the warm waters of the SE GOM. This may be a feature to keep our eyes on for today. What do you guys think?
291. MahFL
Sails1, I agree, proberbly just create some thunderstorm activity though.
I agree. Looks like our little blob may be getting ready to graduate to a... what does a blob become before it becomes a TD?

I saw somebody use the term "flare" for the big splash of stormy weather over Cuba, which is a nice term for an area of activity that flares up but is a long way from being a blob.

But what about a blob that starts to get organized and begins to rotate around a center / show banding / etc. - like Alberto just before it got called up to the big leagues by the NHC?

I'd use the term "spinner", but I already love the term "fish spinner", which could be a Category 5 as long as it doesn't threaten land. Or "twister", but that's a tornado. "Looper" perhaps? Maybe "turner"? Maybe "Uberblob" or "Blob goes to college". Anyway, this one looks like it's going to college - maybe even with a scholarship.
Once it becomes warm-core it is called a tropical system. Then TD and so on.....
Good Morning!
What is that out in central atlantic? Around 55/30 - anything?
Cuba link is for jphurricane. Not awake.
It rained like hell here in Miami yesterday, and there are thunderstorms around here this morning. Must have been from the Blob, huh?

I guess rainy season is now in full swing.
This is not a good location for this blob to be.
mornin everybody.....

looks like most of the models have something forming off the carolina coast in a couple days....

will be interesting too see this develop, and is somewhats believable since it is not just the cmc.....which has developed almost everything.....

guess we shall see! :)
Tampa Bay...
Pressure took a nose dive from 1:30-7 yesterday (typical), cloud build up - bark and no bite.
This morning, winds are WNW (calm) - typical pattern is for east winds in the morning and west in the afternoon.
Current forecast is for the standard summer macro ..."30% chance of isolated afternoon tstorms"

-stormy
My latest:

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
RESULTING IN A SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW. THIS WILL CAUSE SHOWERS
AND LIGHTNING STORMS TO FOCUS TOWARD THE EAST COAST...ESPECIALLY
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE A HIGH THREAT OF LIGHTNING WILL
EXIST. A FEW STORMS WILL BECOME STRONG WITH ENHANCED DOWNDRAFTS
AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH.
Does anyone think that area near key west has any potetial. It is easy to view on the zoom satellite.(whith the radar on.)
any answers?
Morning all. Looks to be a stormy day in the southeast this afternoon, especially with the lack of cloud cover over much of the SE now. This should allow the day time heating to really fire off some potent storms this afternoon.

For those who have not seen, StormJunkie.com has a new Quick Links page to help you find the information you need quickly.

Back to work. See ya'll later.
SJ
The upper level low appears to be weakening and is currently over the Florida Keys. At the surface there is a trough extending from a weak surface low near Tampa S-SW to the Yucatan Channel. There remains widespread showers from the NW Caribbean Sea across Cuba to the Bahamas and across South Florida. This system is moving northward at about 10 mph without any indication of tropical cyclone development.

Surface Chart
what about that storm at 25 W and 82 N
not much development of the blob expected unless it gets back over the atlantic then we will see what it does
WELL-DEFINED UPPER LOW IS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE E GULF. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1014 MB LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR TAMPA SW TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM OVER S
FLORIDA THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO OVER W CUBA.
Excerpt from the Tropical Discussion.
chessrascal...What you are observing at 25 & 82 is part of the ull. It is not wanting to cross that troff. That particular area is part of the coc that moved in there over night.
Gulf...it looks that way on satellite. Ground radar is not backing that up yet.
Link
I must be missing something here. I understand the center to be over land and am seeing no convection there. Where do you propose the center to be?
I certainly see a developing system in the southeaster gulf
It is half on and half off Extreme southern FL. It has become sort of oblong as it works along that trough to the west of Naples over the extreme eastern GOM. Really no coc right now as this is a weak, broad ull. Lots of convection within and around it but nothing is showing at the surface to suggest any transition yet to warm-core.
Yep! There's more to this earth than water. Air, temperature, and water must work in unison to create one of earths most amazing weather phenomenons. I'm from the midwest, but have to admit that watching weather is my 2nd favorite passtime. Keep posting folks! That Bahama system is taking it's time and it appears that the development is occuring too close to land to become a Beryl. But hey, we should just enjoy watching the oven (Gulf of Mexico and Carribean coaster waters) cooking up popcorn. Popcorn's less disastrous too. Let's worry about convection in August, eh?
I'm really watching that Blob south of Cuba also. Another wave that is going to move over the Yucatan and into the Bay of Campeche. That is extremely dangerous water there. Something I'll be watching now until?
Is that anything in central Atlantic?
Central Atlantic is another tropical wave.
Under that blob under Cuba at the moment, very grey, low clouds, an inch of two of rain and some nice lightening, reminds me of Ireland.
Cregnebaa...Cool...somebody from the Caymens. It looked like you were getting some rain. Keep us informed about that Blob ok?
Florida is such a dangerous state to live in in late summer, but here's an interesting question for you. The Carribean islands are scattered all around Florida. Now, imagine that there were no islands whatsoever around Florida. Would these weather disturbances be more of a threat to Florida, or would they simply just simply find there way out of the gulf and into the Atlantic waters? I tend to think that waves coming from the east would pose the most threat, whereas systems developing west of Florida would be marginally threatening. Is this how you see it? Or is this too abstract to deal with?
Dr. Masters has a new blog
Nothing to see here... [car wreck in the tropics]. Nothing in the models, nothing in the MSLP, nothing from the NHC.

Nothing.
What I thought I was watching late last night/early morning was the FL ULL getting stretched out under southerly flow, with the northern part of the ULL getting pulled north over interior FL, with the southern part of the ULL escaping the worst of the southerly flow and entering the Gulf. Some of the model runs were calling for this scenario, with the convection and the associated upper-level high over the Bahamas getting sheared out in front of the trough, leaving behind the remnants of the ULL in the Gulf.

I'm wondering now if the models have exaggerated the amplitude of the east-coast trough. I don't see any big spokes of vorticity coming down to help it dig into FL, as predicted. We are left with a small Keys blob, with a possible surface circulation west of the convection, from what I am seeing. Will this small area develop and survive through tonight? Warm SSTs and lowering shears in its immediate vicinity are in its favor, but with its small size, and with drier air and 20+ kt shear to its west, it won't take much in the way of adverse conditions for us to soon be watching the last little "poof" of our tiny Keys blob.
The Cape Verde storms are the worst for us, Ivan annihilated us in 2004. Later on in the season a lot of storms spawn around here or too the south and they also can be a bother.
Anything like Katrina is not too much of a worry for us as it's to far North
BTW, I hope the trough pushes quicky off of the east coast, so the people of the Northeast get spared another round of unwanted rains from all that tropical moisture streaming up in front of the trough.
hey guys just checking in....whats up?