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Azores storm could become Subtropical Storm Alberto

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:56 PM GMT on May 12, 2012

An interesting and surprising hybrid low pressure system with both tropical and extratropical characteristics has formed over the far Eastern Atlantic, about 400 miles southwest of the southern Azores Islands. This low, designated Invest 92L by NHC today, has developed an impressive amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near its center, despite the fact that it is over cold ocean waters with temperatures of 66°F (19°C.) This is well below the 26°C usually needed for a tropical storm to form. However, there is quite cold air aloft, so the temperature difference between the surface the upper levels has been great enough to create sufficient instability for 92L to organize. Wind shear is a moderate 15 - 20 knots, and satellite estimates of 92L's winds were 63 mph at 1:45 pm EDT Saturday, according to NOAA/NESDIS. NHC estimated that 92L had top winds of 50 mph at 2 pm EDT Saturday.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite photo of Invest 92L, taken at 16 UTC May 12, 2012, by NASA's Aqua satellite. Image credit: NASA.

NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a named storm by Monday. They will be reluctant to name it Alberto unless the storm can maintain it's current level of heavy thunderstorm activity for at least 6 - 12 hours. The storm's heavy thunderstorms have weakened some during the afternoon, making it less likely NHC will be inclined to name it; the fact that 92L is over waters of 66°F (19°C) hurts its chances. The coldest waters I've seen a tropical storm form in were 19°C, during Tropical Storm Grace of 2009. Grace holds the record for being the farthest northeast forming tropical cyclone in the Atlantic basin. Like 92L, Grace also formed near the Azores Islands, but in early October. The coldest waters I've seen a hurricane form in were 22°C, for Hurricane Epsilon of 2005. Latest guidance from the computer models show 92L meandering to the south of the Azores through Monday, then beginning a slow motion towards the northeast by Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting Levi32:
The long-range CMC is seeing low pressure in the western Caribbean after low pressure has already developed off the SE US coast and pulled out. This would be a typical 1-2 punch for this area of the world as the MJO comes across, and we'll likely have two areas to watch for potential development.


Not often you see that in May.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I hope not. Not one who wants a bad storm.

I hope not either and I have 7-8 day to prep myself
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Daaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa aang...................... Euro is serious about pre- 92E I guess!


Well the MSL looks scarier than it seems - the winds at that time computed by ECMWF are actually 40 mph.
1004. Gearsts
Quoting Hurricane1216:
Look what the ECMWF has 10 days out:
Can i get the link to that? Or is that a software program?
Quoting Gearsts:
Can i get the link to that? Or is
that a software program?


It's just on Wunderground's WunderMap!
On a side note in West Texas 49 miles NW of Pecos there are some serious straight line winds: (Sorry about no topo or borders)

1007. Gearsts
Quoting Hurricane1216:


It's just on Wunderground's WunderMap!
I feel stupid...
Good Night All - Stay Safe - Sleep Well

18Z GFS shows...
Southeastern US:
A Sub-tropical area of low pressure forms off the end of a trough around Saturday, May 19th. It begins to seperate from the front and deepens into a Hybrid low for a brief period of time Later that Saturday and into Sunday, the 20th. As it lifts northward it is picked up by a second, shortwave trough and is No longer a threat to develop afterward.
-The system, from what i'm seeing, is not going to have much time to materialize into Our first named storm of the season, though I imagine it will make it to become Invest 93L, nothing more.

Western Caribbean:
A Monsoonal low sitting in the Columbian Gulf, lift northward toward the Honduran Gulf-Sunday, May 20th.
The low begins to consolidate and organize as the shortwave trough to the Northeast lifts of with 93L. The storm is supported by the Warm caribbean waters and begins to form-Tuesday, May 22nd.
The storm forms into Alberto and heads Northeastward, guided by a bigger trough following the previous. "Alberto" Side-swipes Cuba as a Moderate Tropical Storm and continues Northeast along the tail-end of the trough and continues to deepen into a strong Tropical storm before becoming extropical and continuing out to sea.
-I See the time-frame and situation for the formation of the storm, Its not very promising as of now if it the system will actually materialize, afterall The GFS has been wrong with Pre-season formation many times before.
Quoting Grothar:


what's going on here with this forecasts. A 989mb low hitting FL?
We are not in August or September???? So early not even in the season yet plus a below normal activity???? and that forecasts a 989 mb hitting FL????

what is going on with the models?

another low by Bermuda in 156 hr
Whoooooooo!!!!!! 8.3" of soaking water rainfall from the skyyyyyy!!! this week



GEEEEEEEEEZZUSSSS
Frogs croaking all night, water laying around, like being back in the jungle days in SE TX of old. Can hear the trees growing and the sound of sucking thru a straw being sucked up by trees, grass and plants, all we need is the final Omen tropical storm flooding event for TX next month
Next round..... INcoming



I have been a lurker for a number of years since my husband is employed in the offshore ROV(Remote Operated Vehicles) industry in the GOM and I have found you guys to be more reliable about tropical weather than the actual meteorologists that his company employs to keep track of it! With that being said, we have a vacation booked for Key West starting next weekend for our daughters senior trip (May 20th thru the 25th). So after reading what yall are saying about the system coming thru there next week plus watching the GFS Long Range Model here

http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/READY_animations.php

should I go ahead and change my reservations for the following week? Because by what I see and am reading I think I really should!
I know we all gave up on 92L, but the convection is starting to fire back up in the north half as we approach Dmax.
Quoting Slamguitar:
I know we all gave up on 92L, but the convection is starting to fire back up in the north half as we approach Dmax.
Really I thought it was already dead.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Whoooooooo!!!!!! 8.3" of soaking water rainfall from the skyyyyyy!!! this week



GEEEEEEEEEZZUSSSS

Showoff.

Less than 3 inches here on the NW side.
Quoting allancalderini:
Really I thought it was already dead.


It's not too impressive, nowhere near wrapping around the south, but who knows if it could continue.
Good evening. Following standard routine, I will now proceed to blog to the vampires. Stay tuned.
1020. vanwx
929. nigel20

thanks for that, bit answers about 99% of my questions about the season.
1021. JRRP
nice wave near 20e
Link
92L's minimum pressure has dropped from 1009 to 1007millibars
And for those who like to keep track of 92L's wanderings

The northernmost unlabeled dot is where (NHC)ATCF initiated their 92L-track
The westernmost unlabeled dot is 92L's latest reported position
And the labeled dots are airport codes for the Azore islands
The distance between 92L's first and last reported position is 183miles(294kilometres)

For more info, copy&paste cvu, flw, hor, pix, sjz, grw, ter, pdl, sma, 35.3n31.1w-33.9n32.0w, 33.9n32.0w-32.6n32.4w, 32.6n32.4w-31.9n31.8w, 31.9n31.8w-32.1n30.7w, 32.1n30.7w-33.5n30.5w, 33.5n30.5w-34.5n30.7w, 34.5n30.7w-34.9n31.7w, 34.9n31.7w-34.9n32.8w, 34.9n32.8w-34.7n33.5w, 34.7n33.5w-34.0n33.9w into the GreatCircleMapper.
As usual, nobody's awake to read it, but here's another blog.

Back to lurking... the shadows.
Trudging along...

92L
90E still at 60%... Its running out of time

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM PDT MON MAY 14 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED OVERNIGHT NEAR THE CENTER OF A
WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 580 MILES SOUTH OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO. IF THIS RECENT DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...
THEN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY WHILE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS REMAIN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. ADDITIONAL
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM
LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

92L ain't wantin to be done.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
92L


It's hanging in there...
1029. MahFL
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Looks like my initial fear proved correct for rain chances in Florida - the cloud cover that was prudent over the area kept the CAPE down and cause almost no rain to develop over Florida plus the dry air, making a huge bust for any popup showers and thunderstorms. I fear that tomorrow could be more of the same.


Yer we got zilch in NE Fl. Half the month gone and only 1.49 inches of rain.
1030. Gearsts
Quoting CybrTeddy:
92L
lol the should just name it and get it over with -_-
0z GFS showed Alberto again in the Caribbean but delayed the timing some...

Meanwhile the 0z Euro continued to say no Caribbean development but instead an East Pac hurricane

Quoting Gearsts:
lol the should just name it and get it over with -_-


Once they do that it will probably decide to die for good.
92L has been firing and holding convection for 5 hours.
1035. Gearsts
Quoting Slamguitar:


Once they do that it will probably decide to die for good.
Exactly :)
So 92L has been keeping convection, It's now 1007mb, and it's moving WSW I believe into warmer waters. It might have a small shot...
There's the deep convection it needed. Should see a renumber by this afternoon.

It's at 80% already.

Unreal footage of the Grand Isle, LA tornado (that started off as a waterspout). Skip to 4 minutes 30 seconds to see the damage occur.

Appoaching half-way to looping a second loop...
92L's minimum pressure has held steady at 1007millibars
MaximumSustainedWinds have dropped from 40 to 35knots(40mph)
And for those who like to keep track of 92L's wanderings

The northernmost unlabeled dot is where (NHC)ATCF initiated their 92L-track
The second to the westernmost unlabeled dot is 92L's latest reported position
And the labeled dots are airport codes for the Azore islands
The distance between 92L's first and last reported position is 199miles(320kilometres)

Copy&paste cvu, flw, hor, pix, sjz, grw, ter, pdl, sma, 35.3n31.1w-33.9n32.0w, 33.9n32.0w-32.6n32.4w, 32.6n32.4w-31.9n31.8w, 31.9n31.8w-32.1n30.7w, 32.1n30.7w-33.5n30.5w, 33.5n30.5w-34.5n30.7w, 34.5n30.7w-34.9n31.7w, 34.9n31.7w-34.9n32.8w, 34.9n32.8w-34.7n33.5w, 34.7n33.5w-34.0n33.9w, 34.0n33.9w-33.3n33.6w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Unreal footage of the Grand Isle, LA tornado (that started off as a waterspout). Skip to 4 minutes 30 seconds to see the damage occur.



Amazing video!!
1041. WxLogic
Good Morning...
Don't know if anybody has seen this from the 0Z Euro run last night but here is the 240hr frame and notice the low SSE of Cozumel,MX. This really starting to give credience to the GFS that something is going to try to organize in the Caribbean this weekend.

1043. WxLogic
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Unreal footage of the Grand Isle, LA tornado (that started off as a waterspout). Skip to 4 minutes 30 seconds to see the damage occur.



Great footage... never underestimate Waterspouts (specially tornadic ones).
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Don't know if anybody has seen this from the 0Z Euro run last night but here is the 240hr frame and notice the low SSE of Cozumel,MX. This really starting to give credience to the GFS that something is going to try to organize in the Caribbean this weekend.


Yeah, but it still loves the idea of an East Pacific hurricane.

It's going to be a wet week work here in C FL.

1046. LargoFl
Good Morning folks, not a single drop of rain here yesterday, so much for that 50% rain chance lol..today will probably be the same, maybe a few drops inland this afternoon..have a great day everyone............................
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, but it still loves the idea of an East Pacific hurricane.



Damm! That is one hell of a Bermuda High. We better hope this this doesn't become the steering pattern for the storms that form in the western Caribbean this year.
1037 TropicalAnalystwx13: There's the deep convection it needed. Should see a renumber by this afternoon. It's at 80% already.

Since folks before 1037 were talking about 92L, should point out that you were referring to 90E.
Quoting LargoFl:
Good Morning folks, not a single drop of rain here yesterday, so much for that 50% rain chance lol..today will probably be the same, maybe a few drops inland this afternoon..have a great day everyone............................


Had a feeling that would happen yesterday as the atmosphere was still too dry but the PWAT's have increased from 1.2" yesterday to nearly 2" today, add cooler air aloft, and 80knt Jet Streak moving in from the west later today and that should be the trigger for numerous storms later today especially across the interior then along the west coast of FL tonight as another disturbance rolls in.
1050. ncstorm
Good Morning, from Crown Weather

Potential Coastal Storm Development Between Bermuda & The US Southeast Coast This Weekend:
Model guidance such as the GFS and European models are insistent on the development of an area of low pressure somewhere between Bermuda and just offshore of the US Southeast coast by Friday night and Saturday. The GFS model guidance forecasts that this storm system will retrograde westward towards the North Carolina coast by Sunday night and next Monday before quickly lifting out by next Tuesday. The European model forecasts that this low pressure development will occur a little closer to the US Southeast coast as early as Thursday into Friday. The European model guidance then forecasts this storm system will track close to the outer banks of North Carolina next Monday before tracking up into New England by next Tuesday and next Wednesday.

At the very least, this storm system will likely bring rough surf and gusty winds to much of the coastal sections of the southeastern United States from eastern North Carolina to northeastern Florida from late this week into this upcoming weekend. It should be pointed out that there are indications from the model guidance that this system may acquire sub-tropical characteristics as it tracks near the Gulf Stream by Sunday into next Monday and this will be something that will be watched for closely.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
It's going to be a wet week work here in C FL.

Morning all Sure hope this rain pans out. I got nothing yesterday. looked like rain all day. Only have 5 inches for the year so far.
Quoting LargoFl:
Good Morning folks, not a single drop of rain here yesterday, so much for that 50% rain chance lol..today will probably be the same, maybe a few drops inland this afternoon..have a great day everyone
It seems most of the peninsula was skunked yesterday--except for right here in Naples. The official spot--the airport--received just over an inch, while my trusty at-home gauge measured 1.65". (And a friend to the east caught over 2".) We're now down just about an inch for the year. I'll gladly take that over last year's Saharan situation...
1053. ncstorm
The 00Z CMC

Quoting Neapolitan:
It seems most of the peninsula was skunked yesterday--except for right here in Naples. The official spot--the airport--received just over an inch, while my trusty at-home gauge measured 1.65". (And a friend to the east caught over 2".) We're now down just about an inch for the year. I'll gladly take that over last year's Saharan situation...


Like the use skunked! Lots of clouds here this morning so hopefully we can get some sun to get this atmosphere to destabilize.
Quoting severstorm:
Morning all Sure hope this rain pans out. I got nothing yesterday. looked like rain all day. Only have 5 inches for the year so far.


Got over 4" last week which has really greened things up around here but all those rains barely put a dent in the low lake levels.
Looks like no severe wx outbreaks for atleast 10 to 14 days so not good news for Vortex2.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A LOW PRES...ANALYZED 1008 ON THE 0600 UTC SURFACE MAP IS
LOCATED NEAR 10.5N105.5W. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED
OVERNIGHT NEAR THE CENTER WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IN A
BAND WITHIN AROUND 75 NM W SEMICIRCLE OF LOW CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. IF THIS
RECENT DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...THEN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
1014 Silencedogood7: ...we have a vacation booked for Key West starting next weekend for our daughters senior trip (May 20th thru the 25th). Should I go ahead and change my reservations for the following week? Because by what I see and am reading I think I really should!

Reason ya haven't got answers so far is cuz reading charts showing over 5days into the future is closer to reading tea leaves than forecasting. But since I'm the village idiot...
...talk is that the bothersome closed-low will be forming near the Yucatan around the 20th and formed around the 23rd. So figuring storm travel time from the Yucatan to the Keys, changing reservations is as likely to put you into the midst of a TropicalStorm as not.
Personally I'd rather have the worst weather at the end of a week's vacation than at the beginning. Better "Thank goodness we're leaving." after having a nice few days than arriving for "Is it gonna be like this for the rest of the entire trip?"
And there's the possibility that it wouldn't head to the Keys even if a TropicalCyclone were to form.

But as I said, and meant, I'm the village idiot. There's gotta be folks more qualified to give you advice.
Edited in: And I was correct about folks more qualified...
Dr.JeffMasters: The models have backed off on their predictions of a potential subtropical storm developing over the Western Caribbean or waters near Florida this weekend...
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Got over 4" last week which has really greened things up around here but all those rains barely put a dent in the low lake levels.
Agreed 13inches below normal in Z-hills WCFL
Deleted and moved to NEW BLOG
good morning, everyone.
lots of cloud cover this morning.
that's about it.
OLD BLOG