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Azores Islands brace for Gordon; Helene not a threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:12 PM GMT on September 19, 2006

The Azores Islands are bracing for the arrival of Hurricane Gordon, which is expected to rip through the islands tonight as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Gordon is under about 20 knots of shear, and will be moving over cool waters of 22-23 C this afternoon, so a decrease in intensity from its current 85 mph winds is likely before the storm moves through the Azores. Hurricane force winds extend out 40 miles from the center, and the islands of the Azores are widely scattered enough that Gordon may not bring hurricane force winds to any of the islands. The first place to feel Gordon's effects will be the northwesternmost islands of Corvo and Flores. The link for today's weather conditions on Flores can be found here. About 4,000 people live on these two islands, about 2% of the total population of the Azores. Gordon now appears to be moving slightly south of due east, which may mean the more southern islands will feel the worst of Gordon.

Gordon's rapid forward speed near 30 mph may allow the storm to make it all the way to Spain or Portugal on Wednesday night as a tropical storm, making it only the second tropical cyclone ever to hit the Iberian Peninsula (Tropical Depression Vince of 2005 was the first). It it more likely, though, that Gordon will arrive as a powerful extratropical storm with 50 mph winds.

Hurricane Helene
Hurricane Helene remains a powerful Category 3 hurricane, but we are now confident that this storm presents no threat to land. Beginning with yesterday morning's computer model runs, all of the reliable models have been consistently been predicting that the next trough of low pressure moving over the Atlantic will be strong enough to turn Helene northwards, then recurve her out to sea. My confidence in this forecast is high, because the NOAA P-3 and Gulfstream IV jet have been probing Helene for the past two days as part of a research mission into how dry Saharan air affects hurricane intensification (the SALEX project). The computer models have had the advantage of having this high-quality data available for their runs. Given this factor, plus the high degree of unanimity of the models in turning Helene northeast over multiple runs, we can be confident that Helene poses no threat to the U.S., Bermuda, or Canada.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of Helene, updated every 1/2 hour.

Helene is over warm waters of about 28C, and under about 5-10 knots of wind shear. These conditions favor intensification for another two days, and Helene could be the first Category 4 hurricane in the Atlantic this year.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic
A non-tropical area of low pressure a few hundred miles east of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, has a slight chance of development as it drifts slowly east. Most of the computer models are forecasting that a tropical storm will develop later this week in the region between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands.

I'll have an update Wednesday morning.
Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Where is Nash....and Crab. Or StormJunkie?
1504. SLU
Posted By: Randrewl at 9:36 AM GMT on September 20, 2006.

SLU...I am personally concerned with this Invest. I care much for you guys there and whatever I can do to help I will. OK?


LOL
1506. jtn
"Weather Channel Satellight at 3:30am Confirms
Beginning Of Northward Movement" ....

stormchaser77

um.... dont think so...I confirmed this...nearly 6 hours ago....several of you insisted it was a wobble... no big deal..just FYI....
1507. jtn
Only kidding I know we were waiting for the sat downtime - to confirm....NW movement seen at 12:39am edt.....

have a good day
i see its now headed NW, from the West motion last night
theres a new invst area?
Duuhhhh.....Navy!
WAKE UP PEOPLE.....THERE'S A NEW INVEST CALLED 96L!
Morning Rand, Is 96L the GFS run from yesterday?
well im sorry i was sleeping durring the night
sandcrab39565...You're a pretty smart guy. Yes it is friend.
I will hereafter plus every word you mumble here.
Good Morning!
Hmmm that means its rather further to the south and could spell trouble in the future. I saw the models you posted. The models are the first run I suppose.
Rand this may warrant a good watching I was studying Historical plots yesterday and the OCT. hits all started very low.
Yeah, this is 8.5 and 27.5. Bad territory man.
The odds are there last one in Oct. was 1964
It popped up a bit after 3am and is lower and more East than the GFS was saying.
Well lets hope the fronts keep rolling and get a little stronger. I am more concerned though the 30 day forcast calls for above average temps for the SE us.
1522. Gatorx
Rand-


This popped up out of nowhere?
1523. Gatorx
Good morning Sandcrab...
Yep....I haven't baught into the early Fall thing yet personally. It just doesn't smell like it here yet.
I have to get ready to go to the office. I will check back in with some updated 30 day outlooks in a bit. I will get the info to you
No Gator.....I've been looking for this for 36 hours now.
Good morning Gator
I would appreciate that Crab....see ya.
Give me about an hour and I can collect the info.
Local weather guy here in Tampa says that 96L will be a depression then strom in the next 2-3 days but also said that with the very strong fronts (one passing thru FL today) will keep this system far away from the US.
clwstmchasr...Your local Weatherguy is a clown!
1532. Gatorx
Yep....I haven't baught into the early Fall thing yet personally. It just doesn't smell like it here yet

Its funny you should say that Rand..just took the kids to the bus stop and its cool and breezy and my girl said..Mom it smells like Fall!
1533. SLU
Posted By: Randrewl at 9:53 AM GMT on September 20, 2006.

SLU...You have a serious problem....so piss off man!
LOL!


lol ... have a good day man .. i'm out .....
so is there a threat to me and the antilles rand
Not here yet.
MrPR...Ask SLU.
NHC calls Helen's "eye ragged".

Not what I see. I see a pinhole eye and a bright green spot of fresh convection. I see it shedding bulk of outer rain bands as the inner core twists tighter and that suggests faster rotation is beginning. The eclipse period hid part of this, so it will take a few more pictures to confirm that Helene is spinning faster in a strengthening episode.

The green flashes occur on the strengthening side, not the waning side, of the action.

Each one of those green pixels represents enough heat energy to light up New York City for a week.



1538. Gatorx
OK I know no one cares about Gordon anymore...but I can't believe it is still a hurricane...people have been saying for two days...its falling apart. My theory is the compact size of it is helping to keep it together even in the cooler waters.

Gotto go for now..have a great day.
WELL IT CAN'T THREATEN ME IAM PLAYING GOLF ON SUNDAY AND SURFING ON SATURDAY TELL IT TO COME IN ON MONDAY ILL BE AT WORK THEN DAMN IT!
Gotta love that attitude mrpuertorico!
Do it.
damn straight
Well, looks like the Hurricane season is over. Nobody cares about our new Invest 96L.
1543. nash28
Morning Rand.
1544. nash28
Didn't know about 96L until now. I am paying attention Rand.
Morning Nash and welcome to a new spot on the map.
1546. nash28
Yep. This one may also be a recurver, but it is further south than the others formed.
Post by Gatorx-"OK I know no one cares about Gordon anymore."
Some do
UKMET puts what is left of Gordon just off the SW coast of Ireland in 48 hrs
That's Friday - the opening day of the Ryder Cup
Bit far down the line but Helene is probably coming our way mid next week
INVEST 96L. Is that an eye forming? :)



I reserve personal comments regarding 96L because I know the weatherguy will just come trotting in and start slamming. Anything I could personally say will appear on my personal Blog. He is Banned from that site.
Just remember please Nash that I told you about this 24 hours ago.
1550. nash28
Oh no, not the eye discussion:-)

Give it about a week. It will have an eye.
1551. nash28
Yes Rand, I know. By the way, you will have mail momentarily.
Mail is great.
Back Nash.
uuuuuuuummmm, good morning! (says with one eye open) -- see we have a new LB, 96L, wow and she's in a premo spot to be a landfall or a fish...lol.....can we track another Verde...lemme see, by the time Issac gets close it'll be aaaah, what, almost Christmas...lol.

Helene done yet? or is she still gonna move west some? ....anyone have any coffee???
Coffee is always fresh at the Waffle House.
Is 96L gonna be Issac???
Waffle House is open 24/7....not hard to find...just a blog away. Stop in for good weather talk.
Posted By: moonlightcowboy at 11:42 AM GMT on September 20, 2006.

uuuuuuuummmm, good morning! (says with one eye open) -- see we have a new LB, 96L, wow and she's in a premo spot to be a landfall or a fish...lol.....can we track another Verde...lemme see, by the time Issac gets close it'll be aaaah, what, almost Christmas...lol.

Helene done yet? or is she still gonna move west some? ....anyone have any coffee???



Are u refuing about how little storms this year
we had have?
waffle coffee, good....and uuuuuummm, Nicole gets other eye going...not bad to wake up to, lol.

Just a question? Is the little blob of the coast af Brownsville, TX something to be watched. Radar shows some rotation and I know at this time of year storms sometime develope on fronts that are in the Gulf.
Posted By: greenman at 11:25 AM GMT on September 20, 2006.
Post by Gatorx-"OK I know no one cares about Gordon anymore."
Some do
UKMET puts what is left of Gordon just off the SW coast of Ireland in 48 hrs
That's Friday - the opening day of the Ryder Cup
Bit far down the line but Helene is probably coming our way mid next week


These are two different satellites, and they are not perfectly calibrated on the water vapor channel together.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/wv-l.jpg

NATL

It looks like much more dry air gap between Helene and Gordon above than below.

I think this one below shows the truth. Helene is just off-screen left-center where it says 50.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/neatl/wv-l.jpg

NEATL

NHC has Gordon impacting Portugal and that western tip of Spain. UKMET has it following that dark blue stream to Ireland. (That dark blue is rainbands from Hurricane Lane.)

I suggest splitting the difference and Gordon (what's left of it) will either pass through the English Channel or land on France.

Helene, it's too soon to tell, but watch the NATL loop and it will give you some strong clues how things are breaking.

You should be having some warm rains from Lane right now. That water was nearly 90 degrees on the Mexican Riviera just about 5 days ago.

http://www.wunderground.com/global/IE.html


Well, warm for you, this time of the year...
...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING OVER THE E US AND THE N GULF N OF
25N EXTENDING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE GULF OVER NE
FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL GULF ALONG 25N94W THEN
S TO THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR TAMPICO CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY
FRONT UP THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COLD
FRONT E OF 87W AND FROM 24N-27N W OF 95W TO INLAND OVER
TEXAS/MEXICO. AN UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL MEXICO EXTENDS AN UPPER
RIDGE NE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF ALONG 22N89W
INTO THE W ATLC OVER S FLORIDA BELOW LAKE OKEECHOBEE. DIFFLUENCE
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS GENERATING SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 21N W OF 91W TO INLAND
OVER MEXICO.
Good Morning All...It's a beautiful sunny 63 here here in Tallahassee (after the front) and it certainly feels like Fall....

Here is the morning forecast on Helene from one of the FSU Met guys to chew on....
Colleagues,

FORECAST: Hurricane HELENE intensity had dipped to a very strong Category
2, but will come back up to a weak Category three (major Hurricane
status)Hurricane today, and that will last about another day, before it
begins to decline and become a Category 2 again. HELENE is located 1,500
miles east of South Florida, headed NE at 10 mph. By tomorrow HELENE will
be headed North, and will pass east of Bermuda by about 500 miles Thursday
afternoon. HELENE will NOT pose any threat to land.

DISCUSSION: The trough we talked about is picking up HELENE and turning
the storm north. That trough is fairly week, but will get the job done.
However, another trough that was in the Midwest will join in about 36
hours and will greatly accelerate the process. There may be another storm
system brewing off the coast of Africa (indications are) that could
develop into something later in the week.

NEXT FORECAST: Thursday morning, September 21 6:00am

I will be at a conference for the next three days and I hope that all remains quiet in the tropics for the next several days..It certainly looks that way.........

1564. ricderr
ok......good morning boys and girls......what a strange world we live in....and it makes for strange bedfellows..and that's all i'll say on that subject...and let me be the first to bash all you 96l westcasters..not that you're wrong...it's just the doc masters blog thing to do....concerning 96l....scientology says......oops..that's climatology.....or maybe theology......well...craziology...will be my rule of the day...i promise to only make no sense at all..which should make today no different than any other day
1565. GoofOff
Please don't tell taz that a convection doesn't have an eye. He can find the eye in the SAL.
Rand I have sent but not shure if it went different system here than at home.
It is a frontal boundary situation in the Bay of Campeche. Causing much convection.
If it develops I will eat my shorts right here on this blog.
Does this answer any further questions about the GOM?
So where is 96L? Is it the blob at 8degrees N or the V shaped blob around 15degrees N?
Thanks Crab....I have them.
me <---------------completely agrees with ricderr...craziology for sure!
1571. ricderr
So where is 96L
96L as so classified by the NHC and given the designation of same by the Navy Met senter is indeed located where her designation is found
Geez ric....could you be anymore confusing?????
Good morning Nash
so where 96L going
1576. nash28
Good morning Sandcrab.
Being from a Gulf Coast state, It is with some trepidation that I post this commment but IF 96L becomes a TD south of 10N then the historical track that comes to mind is 2004 Ivan. So at this point anything's possible. (Just because it is an Invest S of 10N does not mean it has to be a low attitude TD)

With that said, first run GFDL and UK do not deveolp a storm and GFS is wishy washy about the low persisting but seems to recurve at worst by 65W. It may be worth noting that the GFDL and UK models may not perform well until the blob becomes a TD. Also, we are not sure where a COC will develop - could be N or even S of currrent coordinates.

Most of the history (Ivan excepted) still supports recurve and the later we go in the season (remember this would be essentially an October storm for Carribean /GOM or USA East Coast) the greater chance that the cold fronts will influence the path.

My 2 cents. (these comments are not intended to be a forecast, prediction or in any other way doagma of what may or may not become of 96L)

/BA
ric....Last time I will explain this. Triangulate the circumference of all the BAM models and you have what you are looking for. I think.....
1579. GoofOff
The models, while they may start out all over the place have been pretty good about lining up at least 72 hours out. Seems like all are getting better (or the same) data and come together faster than last year. It is still facinating to watch all the various factors fall into place. Of course, there is always that pesky XTRP that can't read trends. LOL
XTRAP cannot follow trends.ROFLMOL
s dos 96L need to be watch?
1584. nash28
Yes Taz, but as with the other Cape Verde systems, we will have a couple of weeks to watch it.
Note; Any tropical system should be monitored due to the threat that it might sneak up behind you and bite you.
Well ric it absolutely Must wind up in the Gulf!

1587. GoofOff
I know that sandcrab, only had to say it about 10 times yesterday when people were saying "It's going west and is going to strike CONUS". Had several big arguements in here about that. My uncle told me never to argue with an idiot because when you win, the idiot still doesn't know it.
Sorry Taz the smart __ come out of me sometimes. It has a long road ahead of it if it develops so plenty of time.
nash28 where is 96L and what way is it moveing and are there any runss out for it yet?
Goofoff you have a wise uncle.lol
27.5 West....How long does that take to make it to the upper Gulf Coast at say....20mph?
Do the math.
Goofoff, even the ancients knew that one.

"Answer not a fool according to his folly, lest thou also be like unto him."
Prov. 26:4
upper gulf coast from Africa= long time.lol
hey taz, come to randrewl blog he has it over there, i THINK this is the one he was referring to yesterday, when he was looking at gfs, the high seems to be different so far on this one, skooching it down and keeping it heading.....that wrong way jo
is 96L going for the gulf ? sorry ths try to get me update thats all
Long time Crab....LOL!
Christmas, I say...lots of wishes for Issac between now and landfall in the GOM.
1598. GoofOff
Randrewl, at my age I don't worry about storms 10 days out. I am at the point, I don't even buy green bananas anymore.
Goofoff are you a member of AARP. I am and understand.lol
1600. snowboy
Boy I'd give a lot to see Randrewl eat his shorts right here in the blog. Is there any way we can get the Bay of Campeche frontal convection to turn into a tropical system?
runs are starting to come in for 96L
lol
1602. GoofOff
sandcrab, for more years than I care to discuss.
re: "Boy I'd give a lot to see Randrewl eat his shorts right here in the blog." eewwwwww...puleeze....i am trying to eat waffles, here..... jo
Well Goofoff I was raised to respect my elders so now I have self respect.lol
1605. nash28
I second that Hobe:-)
1606. GoofOff
It looks like it came off the coast right on the ITCZ, so if it picks up some fuel from it and then splits off, could cause some trouble. Depends on how long it stays with it. IMHO
1608. GoofOff
sand, I tried for self respect, but I know myself too well.
Look at those early models. Nothing has changed in the Atlantic. If this forms it is staying at sea.
1610. GoofOff
Later all, time for Bailey's and coffee at the clubhouse.
biballen...i'd be more concerned about something developing in the GOM more similar to Opal..too late in the season for an Ivan track
1613. snowboy
Helene is still big, but not as impressive looking this morning..
nop i dont think this storm will stay out to sea this time around 96L needs to be watch
Don't jinx our year everyone - we don't want to even TALK about anything NOT staying out to sea until we are certain of it...please....
later all, have a really good day...it's hump day, enjoy...lol
1617. ricderr
good morning gs.....we're talking about new invest 96L...and hoping we can make sense of it...right now i believe we've extrapolated a predicted lnadfall of either alaska ...or antartica......any thoughts from you will be appreciated
saddlegait lol well said they do that with evere storm that pop up i dont think this storm will stay out to sea will not this time any way
This is off topic but...the ugly dog contest is open to all contestants on my blog - if you think you have a dog uglier than mine - feel free to post a pic though she is hard to beat - no pics of Jim Cantore, Jeanetta Jones or any personalities on this blog please - it is for canines only!

Back to forecasting -
Saddlegait. 96L wants some Tex-Mex. (J/K) how are you today
Taz - it is immenent - I know that, but I pray if that does happen that it is just a lil ole cat 1 or smaller and it comes in so fast, the damage is minimal. Here the weather just relaxed a bit and we are enjoying the relief - we don't want to have to worry about anything else - summer's been a hard one this year.
1623. Melagoo
Good Morning Weather nuts ....

Looks like Helene must have seen the tracking models since she is following them to a "T"
1624. Melagoo
or is that ivisible shield Bermuda put up deflecting Helene LOL
1625. Melagoo
Saddle are those dogs part Mastiff? Brindle Neopolitian?
1627. nash28
96L is heading WEST
They are "American Bulldog" In the south that gives you carte blanch to mix in just about anything you want - except pit. Brutus - the brindle is a gem - Diamond - the really ugly one is Part "American" and part English - more english we are discovering with all her health issues...
"nash28 at 1:06 PM GMT on September 20, 2006.

96L is heading WEST" oh boy, now you have done it...jo
1630. nash28
Yeah I know Jo. But it is the truth:-)
1631. jake436
Saddle, what's the temp over your way this morning? About 58 here.
Posted By: Randrewl at 7:17 AM CDT on September 20, 2006.
Crap.....another Gulf Coaster worrying about their own Ass before there is anything to worry about!
It's not even funny anymore.
_____
Wow, I guess I was misunderstood - my only mention of Ivan was b/c it was the one storm where the track sticks my mind. AND Ivan did become a TD and about 8N and was from a Cape Verde wave. It affected the Carribean and was a threat to Mexico, the Antilles and S Florida and the before it made up it's mind to come to Alabama / east Fla. It is merely a hostorical example of a low latitude Cape Verde hurricane.

The only point I was making is that the history suggests that Cape Verde TDs that form NORTH of 10N in the fall almost never affect the Carribean, Gulf or the US East coast. If this indeed becoms a lower latitude Cape Verde TD, it has a higher risk than Helene, Gordon and Florebnce of affecting the Carribean and SE USA. I did not suggest that this storm will minic Ivan in any way.

That was only my second post here ever. Reasonably benign, no criticism and no forecasting. You guys are so condescending and quick to be critical that it is no wonder that most folks find the bantering unacceptable. You'll have to save your snide comments for someone else (and perhaps someone who cares) because there'll never be another post from me here.

/BA
1634. wadcane
Why is everybody so concerned about the Atlantic. I would be more concerned about the GOM or BOC. Climatelogically this area is prime for development. A system can develop off the tail end of a frontal boundry. It would take about 2-3 day to intensify and once a system is in the Gulf there is no escape for it to head out to sea.
Nash another interesting run is on the FSU at 100 and 15
It was about 54 in Montgomery, about 60 in Dothan, so we are halfway in between - 58 is probably a good estimate - I am wearing long sleeves and brought my fuzzy slippers to put under my desk - 58 outside means 48 inside! We have some non-female employees who think anything over 50 is just to dog gone hot! This would explain why everyone else is coming down with a cold now.

ANyway, it felt good - almost a little chilly, but good - the ugly dogs were shivering when I first went out, when I left for work, they were all stretched out in the sun oblivious to any danger that might exist.
1637. nash28
I wouldn't call it concern, but you can't just say the Atlantic is closed for business, like some have done over the past couple of days.

As long as SST's are warm enough to support development, anything coming off the African Coast deserves to be watched. All it takes is one of those Cape Verde systems to make it over and ruin alot of peoples lives.
bibballen, lighten up...it's hump day and it always gets a little crazy in here. You have to resign yourself to the fact that weather is sometimes crazy, so it follows that crazy folks will say crazy things at crazy times about the crazy weather...can I hear an "AMEN"...(was that profound, or what?)...lol.

out for day, have a good one!
1639. jake436
Not only that, BiB, but you also said that most of the history still supports recurve(Ivan excepted). You have a right to be irratated, but consider the source. I guess if you live on the Gulf Coast, you should be worried about someone else's a%@ instead. I personally will worry about my own, thanks, and show concern for everyone else as warranted.
A tropical wave accompanied by a broad surface low pressure systemis centered about 450 miles south-southwest of the southernmost
Cape Verde Islands. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased
and become a little better organized this morning...and additional
development of this system is possible over the next couple of days
as it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
1642. nash28
Gulf- It is not westcasting or wishcasting. When did it become an inconvenience or wishcasting when someone asks a question or poses a scenario that would take a storm in a different direction even temporarily??

Why has everyone become intolerant in this place. You want sad? That sir is sad. Damn good thing those folks aren't teachers. I would shudder.
Thanks for that ScienceCorp I (as a newbie) am still finding my way around the various models and feeds. The top one i had already he other not.
Interesting about Lane, I didn't realise this was the remnant. Flo remnant stayed over water and we got torrential rain from it - Lane seems to have arrived via Canada and the rain is as usual for this time of year but warm you are rite about that

bibbalan - Sorry to hear you'r leaving but many blogs and chats are ruined by such characters - extraverts,

Rand - winds here are 30 mph and we just got a gust over 40mph, ripped the tarp off my boat AND YET Shannon airport conditions were showing lite winds of 1mph earlier ????
1644. snowboy
Hey bibballen, please don't take it so hard. Randrewl is a bit crusty, especially in the morning. The point you were making is valid, and has been confirmed by what we've been seeing this season. I for one thought Helene was going to be the exception to the rule, and am now preparing a 3 course dinner of crow..
1645. jake436
Posted By: wadcane at 1:13 PM GMT on September 20, 2006.

Why is everybody so concerned about the Atlantic. I would be more concerned about the GOM or BOC. Climatelogically this area is prime for development. A system can develop off the tail end of a frontal boundry. It would take about 2-3 day to intensify and once a system is in the Gulf there is no escape for it to head out to sea.

Isn't this a tropical weather(predominantly) blog? There is no tropical weather in the GOM or BOC, but there is in the Atlantic. That's where the conversation should be. Agree that the GOM and BOC is ripe, and as soon as something happens there, topic of conversation will be there, I assure you. It's not wishcasting to discuss what currently exist, it is wishcasting to discuss what doesn't yet exist.
West....till it turns WestNW and maybe another jog to the West. Then the West Gulf!
How many Wests do you want?
1647. ricderr
pic
ok...first model runs.....would it be safe to call it a fishstorm at this point?
1648. ricderr
oh..and notice the gfdl.....it's a northern track...so...triangulating all 4 of these models..we can call it the wgaf...or W-G-A-F..or the can't we all get ALONG...or....get ALONG little doggies..or..hop ALONG cassidy...and come up with a gneraly agreed upon movement discounting it's actual movement of course....
1651. nash28
Gulf, I believe you are missing the point here. Someone saying that a storm has moved WSW in the last few hours is not bucking science or the models. It is simply speaking the truth, period. It is not getting excited and HOPING the storm continues west. When people get their panties in a twist like that, it makes those that truly want to learn and discuss every scenario that could happen not want to open their mouths anymore. Do you think Dr. Masters would treat people the way some of you on here treat them for asking a completely valid question?

My guess is he'd probably be disgusted with some of you on here the way you gang up on people just because they don't toe the white line.
1657. snowboy
Folks, the discussion in here today is all but ignoring the 3 intriguing tropical systems that are in play .. so I'm off to greener pastures. Wondering all the while what's happened to Helene's eye - is she sleeping, winking, squinting, or what?
1658. Gatorx
I see the spagetti models of invest 96L but does anyone have the pressure reading?

It is going west..no question about it. Helene still has not made her hard right turn...no doubt about it.

1659. Gatorx
snowboy at 1:45 PM GMT on September 20, 2006.

Wondering all the while what's happened to Helene's eye - is she sleeping, winking, squinting, or what?


Getting lasik I think.
1661. Zaphod
Morning all.

Looks like the inevitable recurve is underway to me, if just a bit late.

If the invest is already curving up, I can't imagine any other storm in the Atlantic making it over. Isn't S of 10N usually the zone in which they slide W without much trouble?

Still, I imagine conditions will vary storm by storm, and generalities are never absolutes.

While we wait and see on the Atlantic, what's going on in the Gulf and Carribean? The BOC has been cooking for weeks now, but doesn't seem to ever organize.
Zap
1663. jake436
As one who has been saying for the past two weeks that the GOM and BOC bears watching, I have done some research. Since Opal, no storm that has FORMED in this region has impacted the US as a HURRICANE. In fact, Opal actually formed east of the Yucatan, then fizzled as it moved across the Yucatan, and reformed in the BOC. There has been a few TS to impact from this area, though. Just food for thought, no casting.
1665. HCW
96L looks like major player down the road . latest model runs can be found here


Link
1666. HCW
Xtrap is also not a forecast model


LOL

Link
1670. Gatorx
Reminds me of a song...White Line Fever circ 1976?
Jake, I did some reasearch yesterday and in the month of OCT. the last year a storm hit the se USA was 1964 that was a Verde storm, I did not dig real deep but as a quick search that was what I found.
1673. jake436
Posted By: Zaphod at 1:48 PM GMT on September 20, 2006.

Morning all.

Looks like the inevitable recurve is underway to me, if just a bit late.


The models had it making the turn EXACTLY where it did, and the NHC said before 60W. It did not turn late.
1674. Gatorx
Rand-

When you are finished stuffing your face with waffles, could you please let me know the pressure on 96L. pleaaase
1675. Zaphod
Anybody have any thoughts on the little spin S of Cuba? Doesn't seem to have much convection, but just a little popcorn starting up. So far this season the spin-down attempts have all failed.....will this one too?
Zap
swFLboy...Not to worry. I agreed with you!
Who cares....she is pretty haggard looking.

But we still have this:

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 947.3mb/115.0kt
1678. Zaphod
I like to think the XTRP comments are all sarcastic. As often as that gets covered here I can't imagine anyone other than a newbie doesn't understand by now.

Zap
Pressurized at 1010mb and 20kts!
1680. Gatorx
Randrewl at 1:58 PM GMT on September 20, 2006.

Pressurized at 1010mb and 20kts


FYI Rand..until this storm is named I will refer to it as "May West"...96L seems too impersonal
1683. HCW


96LINVEST.20kts-1010mb-85N-275WLink

Once again Xtrap is not model
1685. K8eCane
with models available that are as accurate as they are, why do we need forecasters?
Good morning all,

I'm not a "West wisher" by any means, but does it seem that most of the models are predicting sometype of ridge to be across the Atlantic after Helene goes by? Wouldn't that force 96L (if it survives) to head toward the US? Just trying to staty informed.
1687. nash28
Ok Gulf, what did I miss?? I must not have been around when people were using the Xtrap as a model.
1689. jake436
Posted By: sandcrab39565 at 1:54 PM GMT on September 20, 2006.

Jake, I did some reasearch yesterday and in the month of OCT. the last year a storm hit the se USA was 1964 that was a Verde storm, I did not dig real deep but as a quick search that was what I found.


I archived 1964 on this site and did not find a Verde storm that impacted the US in October that year, however, two Carribbean storms did. They probably formed off cold fronts, but alas, I was not around to watch until 5 years later, the year of Camille.
1690. Gatorx
greenman-

sorry for forgetting you..of course Ireland would still be interested in Gordon. I am just amazed that it is still a hurricane...compact size- that has to be the ticket.
1691. HCW
Explain to me how Xtrap is a model Mr Great one .


1692. jake436
Actually, sandcrab, those two could have been Verde storms, but the archive only plots from depression to hurricane. They may have been waves from the Verde region before they became depressions in the Carribbean.
The Ridging factor may be exactly what the early models are looking at in terms of the possible track of 96L, but, too far out to tell...with all of the ongoing Trofs in action, this will not be a "player" unless it stays to the south; if it does show initial motion towards the North, it's going to get swatted away like Gordon and Helene
Someone tell me who said the XTRP was a model?
1696. Gatorx
Nash-

Its just alot of sarcasm....
Okay... here's a History question and 50 bonus points for anyone who can answer it:

Has there ever been a storm that COMPLETELY blew off all the models and marched to the beat of it's own drum? Even whe ALL the models were in agreement having a storm go elsewhere?

Just curious...
1698. HCW
I love it when some troll gives you a minus for a post that is 100% correct

Google it if you don't believe me


XTRAP is a line indicating the current direction of the storm, it is not a model

Link
You're getting minused for continuing the ridiculous, redundant XTRP comments.
We all know it is NOT a model!
1701. Gatorx
Stop picking on Taz ..Gulf...he's the one of the best.
1703. jake436
Which one are you talking about SWFLBoy?
1704. Gatorx
FLKEYSRADIO-

For fifty points and the daily double...

What is Camille?
Johnny!!! Tell him what he's won!!


I'm assuming he's correct...
Someone is getting all minuses for being a sarcastic d1
1708. Patrap
..Camille..the Great Mississippi Coast Cat 5..August 69..named after John Hopes daughter..camille
1709. Patrap
..Camille..the Great Mississippi Coast Cat 5..August 69..named after John Hopes daughter..camille
1710. Patrap
..er..What is..LOL
1711. jake436
where ya' at, Patrap
It's all good... no need to answer in form of a question... I'm hardly Alex Trebek. I've got better hair.
1713. Gatorx
FLKEYSRADIO-

I don't know that for sure....but I think Camille made a surprise landing off by like 600 miles....however someone with more knowledge of hurricane history will probably know the truth. Gator girl
1714. Patrap
..been outside..enjoying the weather so much..I cut my neighbors front lawn too.....Man..its 73 at this hour
Thanks Pat...it's 89 here and heading for 94 again today!
Hey Patrap... wanna come do my back lawn? Beginning to look a bit like a jungle.... could use a good mow. Although, the commute might be a bit long to get here.
1719. Patrap
..ya gotta get on the left side of the front Rand...LOL
1720. jake436
No problem, SWFLBoy, NEW BLOG
1721. ricderr
named after John Hopes daughter..camille
ok....you joshin or serious pat?..serius...syrius radio.......has all the good programs..even weather channels..local..national..not sure if tropical...tropical...tropical smoothies...excellent chocolate bannana...bannanna republic..womans shop..of which i know nothing..nothink!!!..hogans heroes.....heroes...a new nbc tv show...show me the money...tom cruise...tom cruise..scientology...scientology...craziology...ok..i'm there
1722. Patrap
..No..thats a fact..John Hope was a forecaster at the NHC in 69..and they copiled the list in spring..so his daughter was named CAmille ..so he tossed in her ..for the C storm..and ..by chance..History was made..its in his bio....
1723. Patrap
..now outside they bouncing the streets again..FEMA contractors picking up gutted debris..the laggers in the neighorhood..are gutting real quick..to beat the free demolition debris pick-up deadline..Friday.
1724. WX90210
96L == fishstorm.