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Averaging together antarctic and arctic sea ice hides an important truth

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:37 PM GMT on January 15, 2009

Since my last post designating arctic sea ice loss as the top climate story of 2008, I've heard a lot comments like this one: "Jeff, you just can't seem to understand the that man-made global warming is a fable and complete hoax. In all that blathering about the falsified IPCC reports and the study of the arctic ice sheet, you somehow neglected to mention that the ice recovered not only what it lost last year, but is now larger than the previous known record measured in 1978".

Well, I can understand this point of view, given complexity of the climate change issue, and the large amount of conflicting information one sees in the media. Let's look at the facts about global sea ice. You can look at the data yourself at the excellent University of Illinois Cryosphere Today web site. Reliable sea ice records go back to 1979, when satellite measurements began. Antarctic sea ice reached its greatest extent on record during the winter of 2007. Summertime ice coverage also increased in 2007-2008 compared to 2006 levels (Figure 1). However, as one can see from Figure 1, there is high variability in antarctic sea ice from winter to summer, and antarctic sea ice can best be described as having stayed constant since 1979 (as stated in the 2007 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC did find that there had been a significant decline in arctic sea ice, in all seasons, between 1979-2006. Despite this decline, there have been three periods during the past two years when the sum of the arctic and antarctic sea ice was the same or even higher than it was at the start of the satellite era (1979). An article published January 1 on Daily Tech noted that "global sea ice levels now equal those seen 29 years ago". This was pretty close to the truth on December 31, 2008, despite the fact that arctic ice was 1 million km^2 below 1979 levels, since antarctic ice was 0.5 million km^2 above 1979 levels. Although arctic sea ice extent has steadily declined since 1979, especially in summer, this decline is not as great during the winter months. One can find periods in winter when summing together antarctic and arctic sea ice area makes it appear that arctic sea ice loss is no big deal.

However, this is the wrong way to look at the issue. We don't care much about global sea ice in winter. We care about arctic sea ice in the summer. Sharp declines in summertime arctic ice are likely to cause significant and damaging alterations to Earth's climate. Cleverly quoting irrelevant facts about global wintertime sea ice data to hide the summertime loss of arctic sea ice is a tremendous disservice. It's like hiding the potential impact of a major hurricane in a one-week forecast by saying, "the average peak wind speed for the next seven days will be 17 mph", and neglecting to mention that the wind will be calm six of those days, but 120 mph on the other day. The loss of arctic sea ice the past two summers, is, in my view, the most important human-caused climate change event yet--even more significant and dangerous than the opening of the antarctic ozone hole in the 1980s. It's great that we're not seeing loss of sea ice in Antarctica. But, both the Antarctic and the Arctic can be thought of as important internal organs in our living Earth. The fact that the Antarctic has not undergone significant warming and sea ice loss in no way diminishes the urgency with which climate scientists view the diseased state of our Arctic. Fully 88 presentations on arctic sea ice were made last month at the world's largest scientific climate change conference, the American Geophysical Union (AGU) meeting in San Francisco. None of these scientists averaged together the arctic and antarctic sea ice together to show that the overall state of Earth's cryosphere was a healthy one. There was widespread concern for the health of the Arctic among all the scientists I spoke with, and none of the speakers at the talks I attended expressed the idea that the recent melting of arctic sea ice was predominantly natural, with human-caused climate change an insignificant factor. One view (Stroeve et al., 2007) is that human-emitted greenhouse gases are responsible for 47-57% of the arctic sea ice loss since 1979. Heat-absorbing black soot from fires and pollution settling on the white ice is thought to also be a significant contributor.


Figure 1. Antarctic sea ice area as observed via satellite since 1978. The maximum area in winter has ranged between 14-16 million square kilometers, about the same amount of ocean that the Arctic ice covers in winter. However, the antarctic sea ice almost entirely melts away in summer, something the Arctic sea ice does not do (yet). Antarctica is a huge continent that rises thousands of feet above the ocean. It holds about 90% of the world's fresh water, locked up in its massive ice cap. The presence of such a titanic block of ice at the bottom of the world completely dominates the weather and climate of the region, and the year-to-year fluctuations of sea ice don't have a lot of impact on temperatures there. Image credit: University of Illinois Cryosphere Today.

What is the current state of Antarctic climate?
At the December 2008 AGU meeting, scientists gave Antarctica a mixed bill of health. Isabella Velicogna of UC Irvine reported that satellite gravitational variation measurements of Antarctica's ice cap showed significant loss of ice between 2002-2008, but that the large natural variations in melting with the seasons made it difficult to be confident of the results. A somewhat different result was reported by J. Zwally of NASA. Using data from a higher-resolution satellite-borne laser altimeter, he found that there was no major loss of Antarctica's ice sheet between 2003-2007. Regardless of which data set is correct, Antarctica is in better shape than the Arctic because Antarctica has stayed relatively cool in recent decades (Figure 2). For example, the surface temperature at the South Pole cooled 0.05° C between 1980 and 1999 (Kwok and Comiso, 2002). The majority of Antarctica has shown no statistically significant warming over the past 50 years (Turner et al., 2005), and cooling has just been dominant between 1982-2004. In the period 2004-2007, much of the Antarctic warmed (Figure 3), but it is too early to say if this is the beginning of a warming trend. Check out the January 22 issue of Nature when new results about whether or not Antarctica is warming will be published.


Figure 2. Antarctic surface temperatures as observed via AHVRR satellite measurements between 1982 and 2004. Much of Antarctica cooled during this period. Image credit: IPCC The Physical Science Basis, Figure 3.32.


Figure 3. Antarctic surface temperatures as observed via AHVRR satellite measurements between 1981 and 2007. Note that the cooling trend observed from 1982-2004 reversed, thanks to warming from 2004-2007. Image credit: NASA

Why did Antarctica cool between 1982 and 2004 if there was global warming going on?
The weather of the Antarctic is dominated by a strong band of westerly winds that blow around the pole. This circumpolar vortex extends from the surface to the stratosphere, and can attain very high wind speeds, thanks to the absence of large land masses to slow it down. This vortex tends to isolate Antarctica from the rest of the globe, keeping global warming from influencing Antarctica's weather, and allowing the surface to cool. The Antarctic Peninsula, which sticks out from Antarctica towards South America, frequently lies outside the vortex. This has allowed the peninsula to warm significantly, compared to the rest of Antarctica (Figures 2 and 3). The antarctic circumpolar vortex has strengthened in the past 25-30 years, forming an even stronger barrier than usual. Tree ring records (Jones and Widman, 2004) suggest that the circumpolar vortex has shown similar strengthening in the past, so the current cooling trend in Antarctica may be natural.

Another possibility, favored by climate modelers, is that the strengthening of the circumpolar vortex and recent cooling in Antarctica are primarily due to a combination of the recent increase in greenhouse gases and the opening of the Antarctic ozone hole. The ozone hole opened up at about the same time as the recent cooling began. Ozone absorbs UV radiation which heats the atmosphere around it, so the absence of ozone has led to cooling in the stratosphere over Antarctica. This cooling has been about 10° C in October-November since 1985 (Thompson and Solomon, 2002). This has acted to intensify the circumpolar vortex, leading to surface cooling. If the climate modelers are right, the circumpolar vortex will weaken as the ozone hole diminishes in coming decades. This will allow the Antarctic to begin warming with the rest of the globe, in a decade or two.

References and resources
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2007, The Physical Science Basis.

Jones, J.M., and M. Widman, "Atmospheric science: Early peak in Antarctic oscillation index," Nature 432, 290-291 (18 November 2004) | doi:10.1038/432290b; Published online 17 November 2004.

Kwok, R., and J.C. Comiso, "Spatial patterns of variability in Antarctic surface temperature: Connections to the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode and the Southern Oscillation", GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 29, NO. 14, 10.1029/2002GL015415, 2002.

Thompson, D.W.J., and S. Solomon, "Interpretation of Recent Southern Hemisphere Climate Change", Science 3 May 2002: Vol. 296. no. 5569, pp. 895 - 899 DOI: 10.1126/science.1069270.

Stroeve, J., M.M. Holland, W. Meier, T. Scambos, and M. Serreze, Arctic sea ice decline:Faster than forecast", GRL 34 L09501, doi:1029/2007GL029703, 2007.

Turner, J. et al., 2005, "Antarctic climate change during the last 50 years", International Journal of Climatology, Volume 25, Issue 3, pp 279-294.

Arctic sea ice

"Antarctic cooling, global warming?" RealClimate.org post, 3 December 2004.

Volunteers needed for disaster relief fund-raising
The portlight.org disaster relief charity is in the process of wrapping up its Hurricane Ike relief efforts, and is looking ahead to the future. According the new wunderground featured blog, Portlight Disaster Relief, "Our goals are to expand our network of supporters, continue to create a sense of ownership and community and create a financial reserve. Achieving these goals is critical to us being able to serve future hurricane victims in a strategic, pro-active and efficient manner." To this end, Portlight is sponsoring a fund-raising effort this March and April in 40 cities--a Spring Relief Walk. Volunteers in twenty cities have already committed to the effort, and more volunteers are needed! Check out the Portlight Disaster Relief blog for more information.

Coming Monday: Inauguration Weather. Wednesday: is the globe cooling? A report on temperatures for 2008, merely the 9th warmest year on record.

Jeff Masters

Climate Change Sea Ice

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thank you for the update Jeff. Your thoughts on sea ice are interesting...
That covers a great deal of information on both Arctic and Antarctic climate levels, valuable information and good explanation.
Thanks for the blog Doc, nice to see some documentary on the Antarctic issue.

Things are gunna get a li'l blustery here.

First system will work its way into the NW of Britain over the weekend. Winds will reach minimum hurricane strength (80mph) at maximum. Pressure is predicted to be in the low 950mbs. A Storm/Severe Gale Watch has been issued by the Met Office for NW Scotland at this time.

Latest models suggest another strong low will move in during next week, bringing yet more gale conditions and mucho rain. This is perhaps the one that has been hinted at for the last week.

Boundless joy.
"... now reading increased amounts of thermal radiation from the main blog - moving beyond tollerance levels...."

Note in the quote below from one of the research letters quoted in the blog:

Antarctic winter trends are small,
comparisons for summer are confounded by generally poor
model performance
. Citation: Stroeve, J., M. M. Holland,
W. Meier, T. Scambos, and M. Serreze (2007), Arctic sea ice
decline: Faster than forecast, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L09501,
doi:10.1029/2007GL029703.
1. Introduction
[2] Climate models are in near universal agreement that
Arctic sea ice extent will decline through the 21st century in
response to atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) loading...

Now I know one was talking about antarctic and the other arctic, but still - state the models are poor in one sentence, then raise the alarm that the models are saying havoc is on the way.
Dr M

Stick to the tropics please
Quoting sebastianjer:
Dr M

Stick to the tropics please
It is all related and the polar weather has an effect on shaping the tropical weather this coming season.
This discussion will be interesting.....OH BOY!! I updated my Weather Blog if anyone would like to view....

TampaSpins Weather Blog Link
if you people refuse to consider climate data because you don't like the results, maybe you should go read someone else's blog, like Rush. He'll tell you what you want to hear, even though none of it is true
"Cleverly quoting irrelevant facts about global wintertime sea ice data to hide the summertime loss of arctic sea ice is a tremendous disservice"

WELL SAID DOC!

And precisely what Limbaugh and all the other denialists do all the time.
Thanks Doc, I love this BLOG :)
This developing Low in the Southern GOM will make things very interesting.....tonite with the extreme cold temps in Florida tonite....wow!

a surprize snowstorm well i hope ya like surprizes
Good Chance this could develop into something tropical and hit the Islands....something to watch...

(From prior blog)
Good morning everyone,

Don't know about snow - it is pretty dry here. (DRY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER) per NWS. I worry more about that danger, seeing as people (especially the homeless) will be seeking ways to stay warm.

Would be interesting (fun for the kids) if it does snow. Warning to all - if it does snow - watch out for us. We do not know how to drive in the snow, but it is soooo much fun. You may want to stay off the roads, while the fool hardy have their fun. (When it comes to navigating flooded streets - I will put the skills of Charlestonians up against anyone.)

Not sure how cold it was early this morning. It is 49.5°F on the peninsula right now. (66°F in my room now). The real blast has yet to hit - but is certainly on the way. High pressure is increasing - quite evident on the Folly Beach Buoy off the coast.

What caught my attention, TampaSpin, was your comments on a TS in January!! Imagine if we were to have both a TS and Snow -- Yikes!
Thank You for the good Blog on the state of the Polar regions.
I have been wondering lately, why the melt is not as severe in the South, and thought that the Industrialised North could have an impact on the North Polar ice that was not being experienced in the South.
Your point on the continous "wind shield" around the South Pole is one that I had not considered.
Good point....


latest water vapour showing aoi off east yuc
Here is some good news for everyone.

This past fall, I had to remove my Experience Hurricane Dolly and Experience Hurricane Ike videos on YouTube due to a music copyright dispute.

I had already deleted the HD footage from my computer for Dolly to make room for other projects, so I had to go through my HD tapes again and put them back on my hard drive.

In doing that, I discovered additional damage in progress footage that I had missed in my initial work.

Also, during this time, YouTube has gone HD.

So here's the good news! Before this weekend is over, Experience Hurricane Dolly and Experience Hurricane Ike will be re-mastered and uploaded in HD to YouTube, with new, never before seen footage!

Here's an additional update which might interest you. My technical team and I are working on providing wireless / waterproof audio into the underwater HD camera housing!

I'm also adding a SCUBA pony-bottle to my safety equipment.

If I travel to a hurricane this year, and if the hurricane hits during daylight hours, and it's relatively safe enough to do so...I intend to get caught up in a storm surge and be swept away by it.

We will be testing my safety / recording equipment at the community pool this spring. If all goes well, I'll be prepared to make video history in a crazy sort of way.

Best wishes to everyone.

I'll write back when the videos are up on YouTube.

CycloneOz---
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


latest water vapour showing aoi off east yuc


That moisture is what im talking about combinded with the low temps tonite will make things very interesting in parts of Florida...white stuff could be very possible!
Cyclone Oz have you thought about the waterborne debris and live power lines in the water along with the air borne debris as related to your survival? Your family may appreciate your abandoning this idea in favor of a non animated camera recorder.
21. IKE
***Oh boy....global warming again***


If I travel to a hurricane this year, and if the hurricane hits during daylight hours, and it's relatively safe enough to do so...I intend to get caught up in a storm surge and be swept away by it.

Whatever you're smokin, I want some.


another aoi is near 16n/52w there is a ccc present and movement is west north west with the feature
Quoting fireflymom:
Cyclone Oz have you thought about the waterborne debris and power lines in the water along with the air borne debris as related to your survival? Your family may appreciate your abandoning this idea in favor of a non animated camera recorder.


You Mom's are all alike! :) Yes, thought about it. Yes, safety equipment will work in hurricanes to protect me. And no, my family would not appreciate me abandoning my quests to hunt hurricanes. At 51, I can only do it for just several more years. So basically, it's now or never to get the video / audio footage I know is possible to obtain in a hurricane, but to date, has not been by anyone.

BTW: I won't be the first one to be swept away by a hurricane storm surge and survive. Unfortunately, the others never had a water-proof camera with them.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


another aoi is near 16n/52w there is a ccc present and movement is west north west with the feature


Keeper i have this feature on my blog as well..i think it has a chance to develop as well as i layed out the reasoning in my blog....could become the first named storm possibly......
Quoting TampaSpin:


That moisture is what im talking about combinded with the low temps tonite will make things very interesting in parts of Florida...white stuff could be very possible!



now that would be wild
Quoting IKE:
***Oh boy....global warming again***


If I travel to a hurricane this year, and if the hurricane hits during daylight hours, and it's relatively safe enough to do so...I intend to get caught up in a storm surge and be swept away by it.

Whatever you're smokin, I want some.


So, you do drugs? Wow...that explains alot about you.
27. IKE
Quoting CycloneOz:


So, you do drugs? Wow...that explains alot about you.


No...I actually don't. I could easily pass a urine test.
28. IKE
Quoting NEwxguy:



now that would be wild


It is not going to snow in Florida.
"You Mom's are all alike! :)"
Dude I am only 6 yrs older than you, just need to make certain you have really thought this out and not running on Machismo alone. Also nasty chemical spills, fire ants, snakes, gators, drowning people, cats & dogs ect. all may be viewing you as a life raft.
Quoting IKE:


It is not going to snow in Florida.


Ike did you get up on the wrong side of bed this morning......LOL.......calm down....LOL
ike iam on the roof right now pointing the weather snow ray gun at fla right now
32. IKE
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ike iam on the roof right now pointing the weather snow ray gun at fla right now


LOL....good luck.
However, this is the wrong way to look at the issue. We don't care much about global sea ice in winter. We care about arctic sea ice in the summer. Sharp declines in summertime arctic ice are likely to cause significant and damaging alterations to Earth's climate. Cleverly quoting irrelevant facts about global wintertime sea ice data to hide the summertime loss of arctic sea ice is a tremendous disservice.


There are a couple of elements of this phrase that are not scientific but passionate. I do not wish to dispute the underlying theory or assumptions or facts - but this is the type of sophestry that irritates "skeptics" and those seeking ALL of the facts and data - and have not subscribed to the religion or DENY it's validity yet.



1st of all: what the heck does it mean you

DONT CARE ABOUT GLOBAL SEA ICE IN WINTER. We care about arctic sea ice in the summer.


In fact the necessary analysis would be that if there is increased sea ice in winter above the norm, what is it's direct relationship to loss during the summer. If Peak is March and the bottom is September - you HAVE TO look at the whole year and the relationship between the seasonal shifts in sea ice.



2nd issue: this is absoulute hyperbole

Sharp declines in summertime arctic ice are likely to cause significant and damaging alterations to Earth's climate.


Again you cannot simply block out the southern hemisphere, other regional localized contradictions, and subject the entire planet to some kind of doomsday just because there is a rapid decline in sea ice during the summer. What are the references to say that one year of rapid decline versus another have cause such catastrophic damage to the whole earth.?



3rd and final point:

Just turn this sentence around.

Cleverly quoting irrelevant facts about global wintertime sea ice data to hide the summertime loss of arctic sea ice is a tremendous disservice.


Neither those concerned about global warming, man's contribution, and looking for answers and solutions - nor those in abject denial that anything is happening - do service to science by being so inflamed in language and posture as to be on the verge of proselytizing instead of instructing.

I have absolutly no interest in listening to that overweight blow hard on talk radio for scientific information, but I am also less inclined to read near religious propaganda for some kind of doomsday.

The steps of the scientific method are to:
Ask a Question
Do Background Research
Construct a Hypothesis
Test Your Hypothesis by Doing an Experiment
Analyze Your Data and Draw a Conclusion
Communicate Your Results

---------------------------

The steps of the POLITICAL method are to:
COME UP WITH Your Results
Do SELECTIVE Background Research
Construct a DOCTRINE
proselytize Your Hypothesis by Doing an PROPAGANDA
Analyze Your Data and Draw YOUR OWN Conclusion
Ask a RHETORICAL Question

---------------------------

Both sides on this debate are guilty of the latter and do little service to the actual scientific method when they lace there messages with flaming arrows aimed at the other side.

---------------------------

So I will continue to rely on this method:

is the earths climate changing?

research historical data related to prior climate change

hypothesis - the earths climate is changing due to human activity

review ALL data on factors relating to climate change and test underlying assumptions with verifiable testing methods against a control.

(there is still much data and analysis as well as testing - this is the phase we are currently in)

Analyzing the data will take many more years, and given the natural dynamics that are not predictable (solar impacts, volcanic activity, additional human activity) - even the analysis phase will have to be tempered by actual conditions as they change in the real world.

Conclusion: Change is dynamic, not static. Current trends may predict a future, as yet unfolding events create another. There is no conclusion to the hypothesis that man is causing climate change, if it is catastrophic or damaging even, or what if anything should be done.

Publication and communication of actual results: Stay tuned.

(meanwhile - enjoy the show)
34. IKE
Quoting TampaSpin:


Ike did you get up on the wrong side of bed this morning......LOL.......calm down....LOL


Calm down? I'm basing my opinion on reading every discussion in the SE USA on here.

Actually I didn't sleep in a bed last night. I slept on my nicely cushioned couch.
Thanks for the information Dr. Masters. As always very interesting to hear your comments.
36. IKE
Good news in the latest discussion from Melbourne,Fl....temps tonight may not be as low as earlier forecasted.....

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
950 AM EST THU JAN 15 2009

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WITH ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO DIVE
TOWARD THE DEEP SOUTH THIS MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. UPDATED ZONES A BIT EARLIER TO CLEAN
UP FIRST PERIOD WORDING. REST OF PACKAGE IN GOOD SHAPE.

TODAY/TONIGHT...(PREVIOUS)...NW FLOW STILL FCST TO INCREASE LATE
TODAY/TONIGHT AND VEER MORE TO NRLY BEHIND APPROACHING FRONT. MAJOR
CHG IN FCST IS THAT MODELS ARE QUITE GUNG-HO ON INCREASING UPR
RH/DIVG THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT. BY 18Z...THE H40-H20 LYR IS PROGGED
TO BE NEARLY SATURATED AND REMAIN SO THRU SUNRISE FRI. H30-H20 DIVG
WILL INCREASE AND BECOME FAIRLY STOUT OVHD FROM 00Z-12Z. THIS
PORTENDS THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS BY THIS AFTN...AND REMAINING OVHD
THROUGH TONIGHT. AND WHILE THIS WILL FILTER SUNSHINE AND LOWER MAXES
BY A COUPLE DEGREES UNDER WHAT THEY WOULD OTHERWISE BE...THICKEST
CLOUDS ARE PROGGED BY TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MINS SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE WHAT WE HAD PREVIOUSLY FCST. SO WHILE TEMPS WILL BE
COOL TO COLD TODAY/TONIGHT ...THIS MAKES A WDSPRD FREEZE ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH SEEM MUCH LESS LKLY THAN IT DID EARLIER THIS WEEK. MIN
TEMP GUIDANCE HAS COME UP ABOUT A FULL CAT ACROSS THE AREA...AND THE
GRIDS/ZFP WILL FOLLOW SUIT. AM HESITANT TO PULL THE FREEZE WATCH
JUST YET...BUT BASED ON CURRENT SAT IMAGERY...WILL NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE IT PULLED LATER THIS AFTN.

WARMER MINS ALSO LKLY TO LIMIT SWD PUSH OF SUBFREEZING WCI`S. NRLY
WINDS ARE STILL PROGGED AT AROUND 10 MPH MOST OF TONIGHT...WHICH
RESULTS IN LOWEST WCI`S IN THE U20S (AS OPPOSED TO THE PREV TWO NGTS
FCST OF 20F/LWR 20S) ACROSS THE FAR NORTH..AND THE 32F WCI LINE NEAR
OR A LITTLE SOUTH OF I-4 BY 12Z. AM OBLIGED TO WAIT ON 12Z GUIDANCE
FOR BETTER DELINEATION OF COLDEST WIND CHILLS BEFORE ISSUING ANY NPW/
WIND CHILL ADV. WILL STILL BE MAIN FOCUS IN THE HWO/G-HWO HOWEVER.

Quoting IKE:
Good news in the latest discussion from Melbourne,Fl....temps tonight may not be as low as earlier forecasted.....

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
950 AM EST THU JAN 15 2009

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WITH ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO DIVE
TOWARD THE DEEP SOUTH THIS MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. UPDATED ZONES A BIT EARLIER TO CLEAN
UP FIRST PERIOD WORDING. REST OF PACKAGE IN GOOD SHAPE.

TODAY/TONIGHT...(PREVIOUS)...NW FLOW STILL FCST TO INCREASE LATE
TODAY/TONIGHT AND VEER MORE TO NRLY BEHIND APPROACHING FRONT. MAJOR
CHG IN FCST IS THAT MODELS ARE QUITE GUNG-HO ON INCREASING UPR
RH/DIVG THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT. BY 18Z...THE H40-H20 LYR IS PROGGED
TO BE NEARLY SATURATED AND REMAIN SO THRU SUNRISE FRI. H30-H20 DIVG
WILL INCREASE AND BECOME FAIRLY STOUT OVHD FROM 00Z-12Z. THIS
PORTENDS THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS BY THIS AFTN...AND REMAINING OVHD
THROUGH TONIGHT. AND WHILE THIS WILL FILTER SUNSHINE AND LOWER MAXES
BY A COUPLE DEGREES UNDER WHAT THEY WOULD OTHERWISE BE...THICKEST
CLOUDS ARE PROGGED BY TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MINS SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE WHAT WE HAD PREVIOUSLY FCST. SO WHILE TEMPS WILL BE
COOL TO COLD TODAY/TONIGHT ...THIS MAKES A WDSPRD FREEZE ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH SEEM MUCH LESS LKLY THAN IT DID EARLIER THIS WEEK. MIN
TEMP GUIDANCE HAS COME UP ABOUT A FULL CAT ACROSS THE AREA...AND THE
GRIDS/ZFP WILL FOLLOW SUIT. AM HESITANT TO PULL THE FREEZE WATCH
JUST YET...BUT BASED ON CURRENT SAT IMAGERY...WILL NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE IT PULLED LATER THIS AFTN.

WARMER MINS ALSO LKLY TO LIMIT SWD PUSH OF SUBFREEZING WCI`S. NRLY
WINDS ARE STILL PROGGED AT AROUND 10 MPH MOST OF TONIGHT...WHICH
RESULTS IN LOWEST WCI`S IN THE U20S (AS OPPOSED TO THE PREV TWO NGTS
FCST OF 20F/LWR 20S) ACROSS THE FAR NORTH..AND THE 32F WCI LINE NEAR
OR A LITTLE SOUTH OF I-4 BY 12Z. AM OBLIGED TO WAIT ON 12Z GUIDANCE
FOR BETTER DELINEATION OF COLDEST WIND CHILLS BEFORE ISSUING ANY NPW/
WIND CHILL ADV. WILL STILL BE MAIN FOCUS IN THE HWO/G-HWO HOWEVER.

Darn! I was looking forward to it. But I find it never really gets as cold as they say.
Sorry about the reprint of the quote. Tried to modify it but it would not allow it.
Thanks Dr. M.

So what about those long-lived CO2 molecules?

In all seasons are they not reflecting longwave radiation back to the surface in Antarctica?

And doesn't your average CO2 molecule have a lifespan in the atmosphere long enough to be thoroughly mixed in (so the CO2 concentration would also have risen in Antarctica just as it has in the last 50 years at Muana Loa)?

So vortex or no vortex, either case, why would Antarctica overcome the effect of increasing CO2 re-radiating heat back to the surface...including after O3 holes started up? (Note the hole itself usually only lasts a few weeks after the SH winter and couldn't possibly have an effect in SH summer/fall).

I am of the opinion that black soot has far more to do with our NH melting than it is being given consideration for. I cannot remember whom but some Norwegian in the 1700s made a note of black soot in the Arctic and I completely expect that has gotten far worse over the last 50 years, especially that coming from Asia.

Now, I am no fan of the CO2 AGW thoery. I can accept an possible anthropogenic effect from soot and the simple measures that would reduce black carbon emissions if we can be shown just what the effect is and how much soot there is in the Arctic. But an effective method of measuring black soot on ice needs to be developed. This mechanism has rather clear potential to be a major player in ice melt, which you have so well put, has an effect on the rest of the planet. Is there enough soot to have a real effect? I don't think we collectively know.

Addendum: Obviously there would be no effect in the winter at either pole. Soot as a warming agent on/in the ice would only be effective in the presence of sunlight.
Quoting IKE:


Calm down? I'm basing my opinion on reading every discussion in the SE USA on here.

Actually I didn't sleep in a bed last night. I slept on my nicely cushioned couch.


This came from an email just a few minutes ago......so some forecasters with status is seening the same......

This morning sitting at the bus stop my 12 year old was telling me he heard on the news this morning there was a slight chance for snow across some parts. I told him no way!
Guess he heard right. LOL
41. IKE
Quoting conchygirl:
Darn! I was looking forward to it. But I find it never really gets as cold as they say.


Same here in Defuniak Springs,FL. I'm on lake-front property with another lake across the street. It's almost always about 5 degrees warmer then forecast.

My forecast for tonight is for a low from 22 to 26. That usually means upper 20's where I live.
BBL have to run and do my duties...
43. IKE
Quoting TampaSpin:


This came from an email just a few minutes ago......so some forecasters with status is seening the same......

This morning sitting at the bus stop my 12 year old was telling me he heard on the news this morning there was a slight chance for snow across some parts. I told him no way!
Guess he heard right. LOL


I haven't read it anywhere in any discussion. If it does happen, I'll cheerfully eat crow on here tomorrow. Maybe you'll be right.
" It's like hiding the potential impact of a major hurricane in a one-week forecast by saying, "the average peak wind speed for the next seven days will be 17 mph", and neglecting to mention that the wind will be calm six of those days, but 120 mph on the other day. "

That is brilliant!!! This guy oughta teach....
Quoting IKE:


Same here in Defuniak Springs,FL. I'm on lake-front property with another lake across the street. It's almost always about 5 degrees warmer then forecast.

My forecast for tonight is for a low from 22 to 26. That usually means upper 20's where I live.


That sounds like New Orleans and it's relative northshore across the lake. Our lows on the northshore are almost always 8 - 12 degrees F colder than any of the NOLA weather stations.
The steps of the scientific method are to:
Ask a Question
Do Background Research
Construct a Hypothesis
Test Your Hypothesis by Doing an Experiment
Analyze Your Data and Draw a Conclusion
Communicate Your Results







"I asked for an order of GW, well-done, with a side of home fries yesterday. Since I didn't get any, I guess that means that GW doesn't exist."

"Hey, is this thing on?"

i am back after a long break, and i find something very interesting east of the lesser antilles. there seems to be an area of low pressure with strong vorticity and good low level convergence. the area is moving to the wnw and should impact the islands during the next two days. it looks like QS missed the area this morning but there appears to be a good chance of something developing in the area in the near future. i noticed that TampaSpin did make mention of the area in his blog. this would be an off season storm should it develop
Speaking of cold, I thought this was kinda neat!

Mysterious columns of coloured light
Quoting presslord:
" It's like hiding the potential impact of a major hurricane in a one-week forecast by saying, "the average peak wind speed for the next seven days will be 17 mph", and neglecting to mention that the wind will be calm six of those days, but 120 mph on the other day. "

That is brilliant!!! This guy oughta teach....


I agree...good analogy.

That could be taken the other way, too, though, in the realm of surface temperature measurements. The "global mean temperature" business does not tell you that a couple of hundred of our coldest observation stations suddenly closed in Siberia in the 90s, right around our "warmest years".
So the mean temperature trend neglects the fact that the coldest stations on the planet that stopped reporting at the same time warming supposedly accelerated.

Statistics can show you anything you want it to.
Nice post GulfPoet.
KECHCharleston-those are called light pillars. "A light pillar is a visual phenomenon created by the reflection of light from ice crystals with near horizontal parallel planar surfaces. The light can come from the sun (usually at or low to the horizon) in which case the phenomenon is called a sun pillar or solar pillar. It can also come from the moon or from terrestrial sources such as streetlights."Wikipedia & Spaceweather.com
Nice post about the CO2 effects on antarctica, atmo. That is a valid point that needs to be looked. Why is it that everywhere else except the South pole is affected by CO2 levels...
Some may need an analogy with beer:

We're on the beach, it's a hot day, and we each have a beer. Mine is ice cold, yours is warm, from the trunk of your car. The average temperature of our beer is perfect for drinking, so everything is OK, right?

Quoting fire831rescue:
Nice post about the CO2 effects on antarctica, atmo. That is a valid point that needs to be looked. Why is it that everywhere else except the South pole is affected by CO2 levels...


That's because of the Alien Base down there. lol.
"Why is it that everywhere else except the South pole is affected by CO2 levels..."

How about the fact that Antarctica is snow covered year around? Snow cover means high albedo means most visible light reflected means little surface warming means little IR emitted from surface means small greenhouse effect. Just a guess but what do you think?
Jeff~ Thanks for addressing the bogus article.


Fire~ the answer is in the blog entry.
Quoting AtsaFunnyToo:
"Why is it that everywhere else except the South pole is affected by CO2 levels..."

How about the fact that Antarctica is snow covered year around? Snow cover means high albedo means most visible light reflected means little surface warming means little IR emitted from surface means small greenhouse effect. Just a guess but what do you think?


YOUr analogy seems logical but, i think its the Alien Base. I had not thought of that before....heck i just realized there was one down there.....no proof needed for me to be a believer.......LOL
If anyone wants a good chuckle in regards to shoveling snow, go and check comment 723 on my blog :)
A couple of large earthquakes today 7.3 Kuril Island area & 6.8 near the Loyalty Islands, Pacific rim is busy today.
RE:55. sdcbassman; 56. AtsaFunnyToo; 58. TampaSpin

Put me in the 'Alien Base' camp.
Umm...what I meant to say was I agree that it is an alien base. You can leave me right here in Charleston, thank you very much.
Quoting AtsaFunnyToo:
"Why is it that everywhere else except the South pole is affected by CO2 levels..."

How about the fact that Antarctica is snow covered year around? Snow cover means high albedo means most visible light reflected means little surface warming means little IR emitted from surface means small greenhouse effect. Just a guess but what do you think?


So long as the temperature is above absolute zero (a. k. a. -273.15 C) longwave radiation is always emitted. CO2 absorbs this radiation and re-emits some back down towards the surface. For this process, sunlight does not matter, nor does the albedo. Would the signal of increased GH gases be diminished on ice just because it is cold? Somewhat, yes. Your point, albeit a good one, would imply that we should not be able to detect any warming on any of the glacier and ice cap areas in the NH, either. So we are blaming the wrong process for NH warming/melting, another mechanism is primarily responsible and is amplifying the potential CO2 effect in the NH only, or another process is masking the effect in the SH. (I am totally not sold on the polar vortex being it. With the rate of increase in the NH being blamed on CO2, something like it should show in the SH.)

By CO2 AGW theory, increase the CO2 then you have increased the longwave radiation that is returned to the surface rather than it escaping to space.

The question I posed, but reworded: If CO2 concentration is to be blamed for supposed warming in the NH, how can we not have some signal of it in the SH? Sure, there is the polar vortex and O3 hole thing, but that is relatively short-lived and we should certainly see some increase in temps in Antarctica over time if the theory holds water.
Maybe that time is coming, but maybe it is not.
Quoting TampaSpin:


YOUr analogy seems logical but, i think its the Alien Base. I had not thought of that before....heck i just realized there was one down there.....no proof needed for me to be a believer.......LOL


Clever aliens. They were hiding from us by using the magnetic poles to deflect the Pentagon's radar shield.
GulfPoet, I like your posting. There is so much propaganda in the global warming issue that I tend to ignore it all together. I suspect that others do, too. Really, that can't be good.
"So long as the temperature is above absolute zero (a. k. a. -273.15 C) longwave radiation is always emitted."

But the intensity of IR emissions is temperature dependent. That's why I said that little IR (relatively) was emitted from the surface. My point was that under these conditions, the effect of increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations might be below a detection threshold. As to your comment about glacier/snow covered areas outside of Antarctica - these areas aren't isolated from global circulations by the circumpolar vortex.
The algee that is produced around the world releases more CO2 in the air each day than does human produced CO2....
Quoting Kelso:
GulfPoet, I like your posting. There is so much propaganda in the global warming issue that I tend to ignore it all together. I suspect that others do, too. Really, that can't be good.



Can you imagine conducting science in a labratory like some of this... throwing volitile test tubes at each other, using squirt guns filled with deadly biological microbes, or using petre dishes like some kind of mine field for the enemy scientists...

to put things in perspective, we will just this year have 30 years of data since satellite monitoring commenced, so it seems somewhat spurious to dry long term or even significant conclusions based on a relatively limited amount of data. also, i don't ever recall seeing any data as to the reliability/accuracy of satellite-inferred sea ice concentration/extent. i wonder how accurate and representative these numbers are as there are no real physical measurements to compare them with. afterall, if soot is affecting sea ice formation, how does the change in albedo influence satellite-inferred measurements?
Can you imagine conducting science in a labratory like some of this... throwing volitile test tubes at each other, using squirt guns filled with deadly biological microbes, or using petre dishes like some kind of mine field for the enemy scientists...

isn't that a new game show on Fox?
Quoting AtsaFunnyToo:
"So long as the temperature is above absolute zero (a. k. a. -273.15 C) longwave radiation is always emitted."

But the intensity of IR emissions is temperature dependent. That's why I said that little IR (relatively) was emitted from the surface. My point was that under these conditions, the effect of increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations might be below a detection threshold. As to your comment about glacier/snow covered areas outside of Antarctica - these areas aren't isolated from global circulations by the circumpolar vortex.


Ahh, but they are, in the Arctic. Not as isolated nor for as long, mind you, but it does happen in the NH, too. The Arctic has ozone holes of lesser size, severity, and duration, too! In Feb/March, I think.

I cannot go along with the SH ozone hole existing for a month masking the supposed effect of CO2 all year long and the NH Arctic being the location singularly affected the most by the global (everywhere) CO2 concentration increase.
"I cannot go along with the SH ozone hole existing for a month masking the supposed effect of CO2 all year long and the NH Arctic being the location singularly affected the most by the global (everywhere) CO2 concentration increase."

I actually didn't say anything about the ozone hole. My comments were related to albedo and the circumpolar vortex. Curious though, where did you come up with the idea the the Antarctic ozone hole was limited to 1 month out of the year?
Quoting AtsaFunnyToo:
"I cannot go along with the SH ozone hole existing for a month masking the supposed effect of CO2 all year long and the NH Arctic being the location singularly affected the most by the global (everywhere) CO2 concentration increase."

I actually didn't say anything about the ozone hole. My comments were related to albedo and the circumpolar vortex. Curious though, where did you come up with the idea the the Antarctic ozone hole was limited to 1 month out of the year?


Sorry, with Dr M's blog detailing the hole as the primary masking process of CO2-induced warming...you get the idea.

The albedo and the vortex alone cannot fully explain the differences in temperature trends in the NH and SH.

The O3 hole duration: Of course, it varies year-to-year, and the definition of 'hole' plays a part. I see some sites that call it a hole when the O3 concentration drops below 50% the norm and others more stringent. Some call it a month, some say it is sometimes present for 3 months.

It is never all year long. The vortex and polar stratospheric clouds (that provide surfaces for the chemistry...analogous to cloud nuclei) do eventually break up...1 to 2 months after sunlight hits the stratosphere following winter.
Tropical RAMSDIS just moved floater 1 to the surface trough east of the Antilles
Quoting Skyepony:
Tropical RAMSDIS just moved floater 1 to the surface trough east of the Antilles


Now that is interesting.
That low kinda looks like barry
Snow possibly on Sun Mon and Tue
snow day?!?
"Sorry, with Dr M's blog detailing the hole as the primary masking process of CO2-induced warming...you get the idea."

Which blog are you talking about? The one above makes no mention of a masking of CO2-induced warming. The masked warming thing is your invention. Second, Dr. Masters mentions the ozone hole as a potential cause of cooling in Antarctica, not the primary cause. Seems to me that he places more emphasis on the circumpolar vortex blocking heat flow from lower latitudes to the polar region.
Quoting Skyepony:
Tropical RAMSDIS just moved floater 1 to the surface trough east of the Antilles


Nothing really interesting there but some scattered thunderstorm activity for puerto rico.
Polar vortexs, when they get going make it down right cold regardless of CO2. The NH one when it's churning it's cold, but it moves around more. Where it doesn't cover shows significant warming, so the NH wobble warms a larger area some VS Antartic where the small peninsula takes a bigger warming brunt. The SH vortex stays put more so a large area gets cut off from the rest of the world's particles & soot as well. The rest of the SH is feeling it.

link
Quoting IKE:


It is not going to snow in Florida.


I second that notion; though, there a few off-shore showers showing up on the radar out of Tallahassee. If they stick around overnight something could happen...
Magnitude 7.4 - EAST OF THE KURIL ISLANDS
2009 January 15 17:49:39 UTC
TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT NUMBER 1
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
805 AM HST THU JAN 15 2009

TO - CIVIL DEFENSE IN THE STATE OF HAWAII

SUBJECT - TSUNAMI INFORMATION

THIS STATEMENT IS FOR INFORMATION ONLY. NO ACTION REQUIRED.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 0750 AM HST 15 JAN 2009
COORDINATES - 46.9 NORTH 155.2 EAST
LOCATION - EAST OF KURIL ISLANDS
MAGNITUDE - 7.5 MOMENT

EVALUATION

BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA A DESTRUCTIVE PACIFIC-WIDE TSUNAMI IS
NOT EXPECTED AND THERE IS NO TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII. REPEAT. A
DESTRUCTIVE PACIFIC-WIDE TSUNAMI IS NOT EXPECTED AND THERE IS NO
TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII.

THIS WILL BE THE ONLY STATEMENT ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS
ADDITIONAL DATA ARE RECEIVED.

My view on slightly warmer temps in South Florida...

The main factor here was that the center of the polar high isn't going to penetrate too far south.That's because the trough isn't deep or strong enough to push itsouthward.If the trough was a bit deeper/farther south, it would be a different story as this high is strong enough for freezing temps down into South Florida under the right circumstances.The clouds over us are another indication that the cold air isn't very deep in nature, although we're definitely below normal and will stay that way for a while. In fact, next week we may get a strong enough trough to push colder air down this way
Quoting hurricane23:
My view on temps in South Florida...

The main factor here was that the center of the polar high isn't going to penetrate too far south. That's because the
trough isn't deep or strong enough to push it southward.If the trough was a bit deeper/farther south, it would be a different story as this high is strong enough for freezing temps down into South Florida under the right circumstances.The clouds over us are another indication that the cold air isn't very deep in nature, although we'redefinitely below normal and will stay that way for a while. In fact, next week we may get a strong enough trough to push colder air down this way.

Adrian


I agree. Putting that FSU degree to good use I see lol...
Quoting Drakoen:


I agree. Putting that FSU degree to good use I see lol...


Lol...

The blanket of clouds has been over us for a few days now,i suspect temps will also stay up tonight.Next week we may get a strong enough trough to push colder air down this way.
It appears warmer temps will come tonite in South Florida bacause of overcast skies and not allowing radiation cooling under clear skies which was initally expected.
This is kind of funny that Dr. Masters posted this blog today. I just finished reading the book "The Little Ice Age". Some of the historical evidence for a 'Medieval Warm Period' is pretty compelling. Green pastures in Greenland, wine production in mid England...

Then, BAM, 1300 rolls around and the Earth enters a rapid cooling. Glaciers advance 'a musket shot' each year toward Alpine villages. Grape production ceases in northern climes, and even cereal crop production struggles. Norse settlements succumb to the cold.

Then, things start to warm up after 1850.

First satellite goes into orbit in the early 1960's... and we start to get reliable ice coverage figures from 1978 onward.

OK.... So, based on 31 years of data, we are entirely without-any-room-for-doubt certain that the ONLY cause for a warm up is CO2 production. Seems like a reach.

Hey, I'm all for not trashing the planet and I think we really need to break our oil habit. However, by instituting scientific dogma, aren't we leaving science to politicians?
Pardon the off topic
Plane crash in NYC's Hudson River with 151 people on board
flight 1549 Laguardia to Charlotte

perfect water landing
hopefully everyone is Fine. Plane is still intact and floating. multiple vessels around including harbor rescue and coast guard.

this brought back flashbacks unfortunatly =( I was in shock then amazement as the pilots brought it in for a water landing.
Listening on scanner
Plane floating south,FDNY asking for major EMS response(incident down the block from me)
"OK.... So, based on 31 years of data, we are entirely without-any-room-for-doubt certain that the ONLY cause for a warm up is CO2 production. Seems like a reach."

1. It certainly would be a reach if Arctic sea ice extent was the only thing we were looking at. Fact of the matter is, though, that Arctic sea ice is only a small part of the puzzle. There's many independent lines of evidence that point to a human contribution to the increase in global temperatures. I think that it would be fair to say that the loss of Arctic ice in the summer is consistent with global warming theory.

2. I haven't heard any responsible people make the claim that anthropogenic CO2 release was the only cause of the increase in global temperature over the last century. I think the language the IPCC uses is something like it is likely that most of the warming can be attributed to human activity.
4 circleline(sightseeing) boats on scene making rescues
Anthropogenic forcing = GW...
US Airways Flight bound for Charlotte, NC from NY. - Plane crashed into the Hudson River. Rescue boats are on the scene but no word as to survivors or deaths. It landed in one piece. Go to Fox News for info. One theory as to why it crashed is it a flock of birds and the engines were possibly knocked out.
med I am on the waterfront NJ side. Office overlooks hudson, eyewitness here.

CNN already interviewing passengers, sounds like most macde it off onto NY Waterway ferries. Some passengers said cold and wet. EMS response hopefully is for exposer and not serious injuries
Jet Crash Live on CNN
So far so good
39 passengers on 36 street, all so far being requested for them is blankets by NYFD
".. Ha ha ha ha .. you stupid birds.. ha ah... I stole your worm I stole your worm... "

(POOF!!!).... (crash)


"..... ooops...."


Great Piloting to bring a Airliner down safely in a Takeoff abort..and make a safe water landing and egress of passengers.
Location made it possible for the Vessels to render quick assistance too.

Amazing scene.


Give these pilots alot of credit for a safe water landing. From my vantage on the docks it almost looked as if he was landing on a runway yet it was the Hudson instead.
Quoting Patrap:
Great Piloting to bring a Airliner down safely in a Takeoff abort..and make a safe water landing and egress of passengers.
Location made it possible for the Vessels to render quick assistance too.

Amazing scene.



Pilot training.. fantastic job and keeping a cool head.
Pat he basically parked the plane right infront of the 39th street ferry terminal!

Like I said from my vantage point I wintessed the landing and almost as fast as the plane came to rest ferries were alongside.
More good news
53 people on ferry being taken to Circle Line pier, 12 on the pier at 40st. it appears many rescued by commercial boats that happened to be in the area
Bonedog,
That must have been an unbelievable sight. Goose bumps go down yet:)
yea Med NY waterway and Circline were actually first responders LOL
No med to vivid. Brought back to many memories =/

Will be some time before the bumps go down.

med, dont know if its on your scanner or not, just had a harbor pilot in the office saying NY Harbor patrol calling for tug boats. Seems like the want to tow it somewhere
Report that the pilot was dropped off at pier 79 and stated no one is left on the plane
They're concerned its going to sink.
Plane also reported to be drifting south
yea med outgoing tide at close to 10knts right now if not faster
Not to wax nostalgic but it appears this was a 2009 real life version of "Miracle on 34th Street"
if they can get lines to it they can tow it to either red hook terminal or bayonne terminal which is where Weeks salvage is.
What county is the crash in?
I would think that snowfall in Antarctica might actually INCREASE with climate change. The reason: more moisture being sucked up into the southern polar front coming from warmer latitudes. The temperatures inside the vortex remain cold enough.
looking for the online scanner feed from this page
Bone
Wonder what the water temp is. Yesterday they stopped ferry service about 40 miles north due to river ice
Midtown Manhattan
med 38 degrees is water temp =/
auburn manhattan County

right now any camera below 70th would be your best bet
med I stand corrected 32.5 degrees harbor pilot just told me
Thank you Bone!
no problem auburn
Of 54 people that were taken to the ferry terminal only 2 have been transported to the hospital and they're condition described as "not serious" by NYFD
21 degrees outside
LOL all the news chanels have eyewitnesses on now. Amazing how many diffrent stories your getting.
Quoting Bonedog:
med I stand corrected 32.5 degrees harbor pilot just told me




the water would be a balmy 75 degrees if Domo Kun had not eaten Global Warming !!!!
Apparently many of the rescues made by civilian watercraft prior to arrival of emergency services
21 degree enviornmental temp.
tugs are staging now. Looks like McCallister and Moran

windchill is 9

with that water temp and air temp med services will be treating hypotherma victims figure 5 to 15 min before stage 1 sets in
Bone
They're trying to tow it over to your side of the river right now
yea med. like I said it apparently landed just north of the 39th street ferry terminal. From where I am I noticed 2 in the terminal at the time and immediatly were on scene
yea Med. Harbor Pilot saying trying to make it to Weeks Marine Terminal. They have the equipment to lift this in one piece actually
I will say one thing. Shows everyone how long a plane really floats. Would have no issues getting off the plane if you are not injured.

LOL guess I will pay attention more about those water landings now
Quoting Bonedog:
yea Med. Harbor Pilot saying trying to make it to Weeks Marine Terminal. They have the equipment to lift this in one piece actually
Wow, Bone could you see the plane in the water.....talk about brr!
yea conchy this basically out my front door at work
Update on passenger count 148(dot including crew). Appears all made it off
Quoting Bonedog:
yea conchy this basically out my front door at work
Amazing and impressive how quickly they worked to get everyone off the plane safely and appears no major injuries.
yes conchy it was. from reports I am hearing within a few mintues everyone was off and was safe. I would imagine EMS treating for hypotherma the most.
FDNY reporting "no one seriously injured"
Think that captain deserves a week's extra vacation:)
141. medicroc 5:01 PM EST on January 15, 2009
FDNY reporting "no one seriously injured"
Think that captain deserves a week's extra vacation:)


and a raise!!!
Emergency services trying to gather all the passengers as they were rescued by a variety of different civilian watercraft.
Sounds like they might even be able to save the plane. That would be great too.
Bone,
I'd contribute to it.
BTW: Rush hour nightmare
they are trying too conchy. They have the eqjuipment in place to do so. Lugage might be fine also, thats the only way this plane is still floating if the baggage compartment still has air in it.


med FAA saying BOTH engines were out do to bird strike. This guy landed with ZERO power!! Even more amazing now.
LOL med more like crawl hour nightmare. West side highway has to be closed right now and probably some cross streets as well. Varazano has to be bumper to bumper, great view from there!
he came in over the GW Bridge. I think I would have crapped my pants if I was on the bridge when he did that!
Bone,
Just remembered something I heard over the scanner about an hour ago. Plane took off with 21,ooo gallons of fuel. In the air just a few minutes.
There go the goose bumps again
Wow Bone - didn't even think about the luggage and the air in the compartment. Kudos to the crew - bet they are so relieved. Had to be some tense moments.
stop med goose bumps finally went down

yea conchy cudos to the crew for the evac and the piolt to land on zero power and do it text book.
Reported before that the captain stated to NYFD that there was no one left on board. So this guy lands a plane in the water and while its threatening to sink checks the entire plane before he leaves to make sure there is no one left on it. Man would I like to meet this guy.
if they get it to Weeks I will go and get some shots tomorrow
Quoting medicroc:
Reported before that the captain stated to NYFD that there was no one left on board. So this guy lands a plane in the water and while its threatening to sink checks the entire plane before he leaves to make sure there is no one left on it. Man would I like to meet this guy.
He deserves something very special and I hope the folks on the plane will realize how very fortunate they were to have such a crew. Wow - goose bumps for sure.
yea Med he was a true professional. Took the time to make sure the plane was clear and that also means he was last off. Captain didnt have to go down with this ship fortunatly
conchy the goose bumps we are talkign about are 9/11 flashbacks =( this was eerily similar in many ways for me at least.
but yes goose bumps for those passengers for sure not knowing what was going to happen
Quoting Bonedog:
conchy the goose bumps we are talkign about are 9/11 flashbacks =( this was eerily similar in many ways for me at least.
Ah, didn't even think about that but of course those of you up there that would be the first thing through your minds.
Conchy,
One positive flashback. On 9/11 over half-million people were evacuated from Manhattan south of the towers making it the second largest evacuation by water in history(the evacuation of 800,000 Allied troops at Dunkirk during World War 2 was the largest).
And it was performed by civilian water craft after a call for assistanced was put out by the Coast Guard. No one was hurt in the process and it was all performed without a plan. So kudo's also go to New York's Sea-men and sea-women

Well, they are beginning to release many emergency service units back into regular service. Looks like things are winding down. NYPD states all travel restrictions over, all streets being reopened. Gotta go chill for a while. Pleasure talking to ya'll. Have a wonderful and peaceful night.
BTW Bone I have a couple extra Valium I'd gladly share with ya:)
33. Here's my theory: global warming and cooling are natural cycles. They would happen independently of mankind's involvement. AGW and AGC are also happening concurrently due to the fact that more than 6 billion people live on the Earth. Co2 emission isn't the only variable that is caused by man though. Reducing emissions(not just co2) might buy us a little time though if we could do it on a global scale.

The theory continues: as the ice melts in the North and the snow and ice accumulate in the South the Earth is thrown of balance. This is also theorized as a natural phenomenon. We just might be speeding it with our contributions.

To test the theory all we have to do is keep doing what we're doing. Not very scientific, but apparently very few people here seem to trust the current experts anyway.

We would need another global climate with the same population of people that drastically changed their current energy practices to really test the theory. Let's call our current Earth the control group.

Then we just monitor both to see what happens. In order to prove the theory we would need at least 14 globes I suppose. 7 controls and 7 experimentals. That way we could get really good statistics out of the experiment.

I'd be willing to accept grant money for this project if any of you are interested. lol

Just kidding... I am a plant scientist. We see many changes occuring related to this subject. Especially were plants grow that they never used too.

By the way in response to a previous poster: I'm pretty sure the global algae population uses far more co2 than it releases.

Unfortunately, due to rising temperatures in the oceans the balance of phytoplankton - that absorb most of the co2 in the natural cycle - to other ocean going zooplankton - that release co2 - may be thrown off. It could swing either way though. More algea or more of either critter could be a bad thing for the complex system of life in the oceans - which we (the world) depend on as a major food source.

Again, all just theories of mine.

If anyone who can make several copies of planet Earth please let me know. I'll also need some master orators to convince seven world populations to stop polluting their worlds. Maybe we can get Fire to donate his big v8 truck to help haul them.
Re: Plane Crash.
To land an aircraft, on water, 3 mins. after takeoff, WITH NO POWER, and to put it down so sweetly, is an INCREDIBLE ACHIEVEMENT.
Those things dont fly without engine power. Great Stuff man.
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology


MEDIA:

NO USE OF STANDARD EMERGENCY WARNING SIGNAL (SEWS)

PLEASE BROADCAST THIS INFORMATION IF REFERRING TO THE EARTHQUAKE IN NEWS

REPORTS.

********************************************************************************


NO TSUNAMI THREAT TO AUSTRALIA


Issued by the Joint Australian Tsunami Warning Centre (JATWC) at 05:06 AM EDT

on Friday 16 January 2009


********************************************************************************

SUMMARY:


An undersea earthquake of magnitude 7.5 has occurred at 04:49 AM EDT on Friday

16 January 2009 near KURIL ISLANDS REGION.


THERE IS NO TSUNAMI THREAT TO THE AUSTRALIAN MAINLAND, ISLANDS OR TERRITORIES.


No further updates will be issued unless the situation changes.

sorry that was a couple of hours ago.. but still is news
yikes a plane crashing into Hudson river It seems scary but everyone lived and they said on the news the hasn't been an avaiton fatality in two years that gives me a lot of confidence in air travel.
Quoting all4hurricanes:
yikes a plane crashing into Hudson bay It seems scary but everyone lived and they said on the news the hasn't been an avaiton fatality in two years that gives me a lot of confidence in air travel.

and to think that im looking at the Hudson River from my window
MichaelSTL banned me from his blog because I don't agree with him about Global Warming....so, what club did I just join, and how many members are there now?

;)
There is a definite red flag warning for all counties(excluding the lower keys) in Florida as dewpoints are foretasted to bottom out in the negative single digits with relative humidities in the single digits for several hours(Lake Okeechobee northward with a lesser extent southward)! Hard to imagine a RFA with daytime highs expected in the lower fifties tomorrow under sunny skies.
OK, how about another theory on the shrinking ice: I think it's probable that with all the profit taking of the natural resources available a large part of the shrinking ice is due to "Icebreaker ships". They keep building them bigger and stronger, going where no man has gone before, and thus opening holes in the ice that were never there in the past. Cruising around in these ice fields keeps them broke up and a goodly portion of the ice just floats away. Another goodly portion has more exposed edges to melt or be affected by the ocean and wave action.
You know the same people chasing the Polar Bears use this equipment. Probably scare off a few pounds of bear meat every time they get close to one, along with a potential meal for the bear.
The tourist season brings these boats and others to the base of Glaciers adding to the problem by helping to wear away at the base and allowing the higher ice to hurry itself on down to the sea.
And then maybe it’s all for naught as this record breaking cold weather may put enough ice up there to hold out for quite a while!
Just a thought,
I have a wager to post here. I bet that in the next 7 days our instruments and statistics are going to notice that total Arctic ice coverage is below the positive PDO norm (It will simply say ice extent anomaly, as if we have been measuring it for 1000 years) or, at the very least, be close to falling below that average level for the date.

Why?

It is colder in Atlanta than Fairbanks at this very moment (go ahead check it out). Cold air moved south...replaced by air from the N. Central Pacific. Arcitc sea ice will not be growing as fast as it was last week for at least the next week and will thus not be following the PDO average conditions.
Quoting NRAamy:
MichaelSTL banned me from his blog because I don't agree with him about Global Warming....so, what club did I just join, and how many members are there now?

;)


You just joined wunderground. Everyone is in that particular club. STL is waiting for an excuse to ban himself so his world will be complete.
Quoting atmoaggie:
I have a wager to post here. I bet that in the next 7 days our instruments and statistics are going to notice that total Arctic ice coverage is below the positive PDO norm (It will simply say ice extent anomaly, as if we have been measuring it for 1000 years) or, at the very least, be close to falling below that average level for the date.

Why?

It is colder in Atlanta than Fairbanks at this very moment (go ahead check it out). Cold air moved south...replaced by air from the N. Central Pacific. Arcitc sea ice will not be growing as fast as it was last week for at least the next week and will thus not be following the PDO average conditions.



This sees like a pretty safe bet since there hasn't been a positive Arctic sea ice extent anomaly in years. At least, relative to the 1979-2000 averege; not sure where you're getting this thousands of years thing. It looks like the current anomaly is on the order of a minus million square kilometers. Why would anyone think that we'd make that up over the next week?
Dr. Masters : "Well, I can understand this point of view, given complexity of the climate change issue, and the large amount of conflicting information one sees in the media. "

You are a very gracious, and patient, man, sir! Thanks for this blog, and thanks for the good write-ups regarding climate, its (significantly anthropogenically) changing nature, and the leading science that studies such topics.
NRA....he banned me for posting an article ...that he disagreed with....that I also disagreed with....so...he banned me for agreeing with him....
Sorry I don't live in NY and logic tells me Hudson bay and Hudson river aren't to far apart but I couldn't be more wrong. NOTHING IN TROPICS waaah!!!
Good Evening.
Trinidad weather now-
77 F temp, wind calm, clear sky, great visibility, frogs in pond making strange noises.

pottery.....you make me sick....

Charleston, SC....47 and fallin' like a rock....low 23.....
Sorry Press.
I do that, sometimes. Or so my wife says.........
heheheh
Quoting pangean:



This sees like a pretty safe bet since there hasn't been a positive Arctic sea ice extent anomaly in years. At least, relative to the 1979-2000 averege; not sure where you're getting this thousands of years thing. It looks like the current anomaly is on the order of a minus million square kilometers. Why would anyone think that we'd make that up over the next week?


I should have said "further below the positive PDO norm"...sorry. Nowhere did I say, nor did mean, we had a positive sea ice anomaly.

I expect the rate of increase for this year to flatten out in this plot for a week or so. My point about not following the average conditions is that in this plot the rate of extent increase will not be parallel to the average for the next week, but less than the average rate of increase:



The thousands of years thing has to do our commonly used definition of that 1979-2000. What if the extent was anomalously high during that period and comparing today's extent against that period is nonsense? How do we know?

This speaks to what we are using as a baseline.

Define: anomaly (from wiktionary) A deviation from a rule or from what is regarded as normal.
Question: What if the definition of "what is regarded as normal" is skewed? An anomaly is shown when there isn't one. An anomaly is possibly shown of the wrong sign. Not saying this is true, but certainly possible.
Hi all! Destin 46 degrees , north wind at 13mph, temp going down to 28 tonight and about 25 tomorrow night. 'cuse me, this is Florida!
Quoting presslord:
pottery.....you make me sick....

Charleston, SC....47 and fallin' like a rock....low 23.....


My current temps and forecast in SE LA are exactly that.
Well, if it stays clear tonight, which it looks to be doing, it will plummet to around 70 in the early hours. I think I will need a blanket tonight LOL
Pottery, you ever lived in cold climate?
Hi Sugar. Thats too chilly for me.......
Quoting pottery:
Hi Sugar. Thats too chilly for me.......

Me, too! I keep telling the husband we are not far enough south.
pottery....that's just mean....
Nope. A Christmas holiday in Peoria, Illinois (dont go there), and a 2 week stint in Toronto in Feb once.
That was quite enough for me.
Lived in the sun since 1817 !!
my colllege girlfriend was the daughter of the Mayor of Peoria...it ain't exactly a garden spot...
You are beginning to SOUND like her too, Press.
Quoting pottery:
Nope. A Christmas holiday in Peoria, Illinois (dont go there), and a 2 week stint in Toronto in Feb once.
That was quite enough for me.
Lived in the sun since 1817 !!


Dude's a vampire or something. Cool.

Have you by any chance been taking good temperature measurements all this time? We could use the data ;-)
You keep bragging Pottery, you'll have a boatload of WU people at your door.
Quoting presslord:
my colllege girlfriend was the daughter of the Mayor of Peoria...it ain't exactly a garden spot...


Yep, been there, avoiding that.
My sister married a Caterpillar. Lived in all kinds of exotic places, then Head Office, Peoria.
Poor girl, even had to become overly Religious, to get her Mall Membership.......
LOL Atmo. I am a recent Manifestation of a long and productive line...
Quoting pottery:
My sister married a Caterpillar. Lived in all kinds of exotic places, then Head Office, Peoria.
Poor girl, even had to become overly Religious, to get her Mall Membership.......

You mean Caterpillar, the big equipment Caterpillar?
Yeah, she Wed a Caterpillar Engineer.
Now they live in Arizona. Great place. Been there, NewMex, etc, looking at all the Pueblo Pots.
Just for Info., I also visited Florida, California, New york, Oshkosh air show.

So I think I know more about you all, than you all know about me !
I spent a very drunken weekend in Key West on a boat with a chick from Trinidad in 1984....that's all I need to know.....
Quoting pottery:
Just for Info., I also visited Florida, California, New york, Oshkosh air show.

So I think I know more about you all, than you all know about me !

I haven't been to Trinidad...closest I've been is St. Lucia. Drank a bunch of rum,too.
Sounds good to me, Press.

Sugar, St. Lucia is a great Island. The French influence there is nice.
Evening all

Pottery, I hope you make it to Charleston someday.

Orca, KOTG - close the door, already.

It's about 45 degrees and dropping. Do not expect to see it up to 45 degrees again until Sunday.

Press, did happen to look out at the sky about 8:30pm? Looked like a satellite - I have noticed it several times when I returned to from closing the shop. Towards the west - and just a bit to the south.



KEH Yes!!! we were leaving our church (Blessed Sacrament on Savannah Hwy) and saw it....Where's your shop?
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
6:00 AM FST January 16 2009
=======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance (1008 hPa) located near 13.0S 163.0E is reported as moving slowly. Position POOR based on infrared/visible with animation, peripheral surface observations, and latest Quikscat Pass. Sea surface temperature around 30-31C.

The system lies along a trough under a 250HPA subtropical ridge axis in a moderately sheared environment. Poor convection near the system in the last 12 hours and organization remains disorganized. A surface ridge to the south directs dry air entrainment to the tropical disturbance.

Most global models (EC/US/UK) has picked up the system but does not deepen or develop the system any further.

POTENTIAL FOR TD TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW
Cold spot in the Northeast this hour...

Clayton Lake, Maine
Lat: 46.62 Lon: -69.53 Elev: 1030
Last Update on Jan 15, 9:25 pm EST

NA

-33°F
(-36°C)
Humidity: 70 %
Wind Speed: Calm
Barometer: 30.17" (1027.7 mb)
Dewpoint: -39°F (-39°C)
Yeah, Charlseton has always had that "ring" to it that makes me want to visit. Maybe one day. I'll buy another Lotto......
The shop is on Savannah Hwy - next to Doscher's. But I noticed it when I returned to the home. Looking from the piazza, to the right of St. Michaels.

I never knew that Maine got so cold........
pottery....you can stay with me....but you need to see KEH's grand ballroom....
Quoting presslord:
pottery....you can stay with me....but you need to see KEH's grand ballroom....

Indeed!
Quoting pottery:
I never knew that Maine got so cold........



Within 50 miles of the border with Canada in northern Maine they're good for a -35°F to -40°F night about once a year...

Should be around those #'s tonight with some of the normally colder locales down to -45°F give or take.
Thank you Press. You may regret that statement, when you sober up !!

Re: Satellites, do you see them often ?
Here, it a regular thing, from sunset for about 2 hrs. Counted 11 one evening. There is a LOT of stuff out there...
pottery.....see them a lot offshore....they're a very useful navigational tool....
KEH, an old Home ? I live in one too, 165 yrs old, but not particularly Grand. No Ballroom.
It is a Maintenance Challenge.....
KEH....I'm looking right now at a charcoal sketch that was drawn by my Grandmother's sister in 1909...it's of St. Michael's from your piazza...would love to show it to you sometime.....
How is a Sat. a Nav. Tool? You would need to know what sat. you were seeing, and all of that surely ??
Quoting sullivanweather:
Cold spot in the Northeast this hour...

Clayton Lake, Maine
Lat: 46.62 Lon: -69.53 Elev: 1030
Last Update on Jan 15, 9:25 pm EST

NA

-33°F
(-36°C)
Humidity: 70 %
Wind Speed: Calm
Barometer: 30.17" (1027.7 mb)
Dewpoint: -39°F (-39°C)


And the whacky warm spot in the far northwest: Fairbanks Eiels, Alaska (Airport)
Updated: 7 min 11 sec ago
Mostly Cloudy
41 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Windchill: 35 °F
Humidity: 65%
Dew Point: 30 °F
Wind: 9 mph from the NNE
Pressure: 29.44 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
Those folks up in Alaska must be wondering what the hell is going on....

2 straight weeks of -40°F to -70°F temperatures and now they're above freezing thanks to a good ol Alaskan chinook.
Quoting pottery:
How is a Sat. a Nav. Tool? You would need to know what sat. you were seeing, and all of that surely ??



Exactly!!! You need to know what you're looking for....I have a book on board that has tables....
Did not know you could do that, Press. I will have to check it out .
There is a Satellite that goes overhead at about 7:00pm. South to North.
During its transit, it makes 1 or 2 incredible "flares". Slowly, gradually intensifies then fades slowly to norm.
I have always wondered if it is Solar Panel reflection or something.
that would be my guess, too, pottery....will get you the exact title of the satellite book next time I'm over at the boat....which ain't gonna be in the next few days....bbbbbrrrrrrrrr.....
Quoting presslord:
KEH....I'm looking right now at a charcoal sketch that was drawn by my Grandmother's sister in 1909...it's of St. Michael's from your piazza...would love to show it to you sometime.....

I would love to see it. If your daughter is so inclined, I would love to read her paper as well.

Pottery, the building where I live is a combination of buildings, the oldest part being circa 1800.
That would be great. Would love to have that.

I'm gone . Its been good.
KEH....she'd be flattered.....we'll set up a date....
Sounds Fantastic, KEH.
Sounds very tempting.........

Good Night all.
c ya pot....I'm crashing, too...gettin' old....
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Evening all

Pottery, I hope you make it to Charleston someday.

Orca, KOTG - close the door, already.

It's about 45 degrees and dropping. Do not expect to see it up to 45 degrees again until Sunday.

Press, did happen to look out at the sky about 8:30pm? Looked like a satellite - I have noticed it several times when I returned to from closing the shop. Towards the west - and just a bit to the south.





Go read post 723 in my blog.. it will give you an idea what your in for :)
Quoting Orcasystems:


Go read post 723 in my blog.. it will give you an idea what your in for :)


I read it earlier today, and thought I would split my side laughing so hard.

Do you mind if I copy it and send it to my sister?

Quoting KEHCharleston:


I read it earlier today, and thought I would split my side laughing so hard.

Do you mind if I copy it and send it to my sister?



I put it into a word document.. do you want it?
Here is a link to comment 723 in word format
Update from Maine...

Clayton Lake, Maine
Lat: 46.62 Lon: -69.53 Elev: 1030
Last Update on Jan 15, 10:25 pm EST

NA

-37°F

(-38°C)
Humidity: 65 %
Wind Speed: Calm
Barometer: 30.16" (1027.8 mb)
Dewpoint: -44°F (-42°C)
Visibility: NA
Quoting sullivanweather:
Update from Maine...

Clayton Lake, Maine
Lat: 46.62 Lon: -69.53 Elev: 1030
Last Update on Jan 15, 10:25 pm EST

NA

-37°F

(-38°C)
Humidity: 65 %
Wind Speed: Calm
Barometer: 30.16" (1027.8 mb)
Dewpoint: -44°F (-42°C)
Visibility: NA


Brrrr your weather sucks
Quoting Orcasystems:
Here is a link to comment 723 in word format


Thanks! Much appreciated
AOI 15.5N/52.3W

"I have a wager to post here. I bet that in the next 7 days our instruments and statistics are going to notice that total Arctic ice coverage is below the positive PDO norm (It will simply say ice extent anomaly, as if we have been measuring it for 1000 years) or, at the very least, be close to falling below that average level for the date."

First, I'm certainly no expert here, but I thought that the PDO index is negative right now. Why would we be comparing the Arctic ice extent a week from now to the "norm" for that date in a positive PDO? Second, what is the "norm" Arctic ice extent during a positive PDO on January 22 and where can I find this information?


"Nowhere did I say, nor did mean, we had a positive sea ice anomaly."

Didn't say you did. What I said was that making a bet that the anomaly would be negative a week from now when it has already been negative for years seems pretty safe. Again, why would anyone think that it would turn positive in the next seven days?


"Define: anomaly (from wiktionary) A deviation from a rule or from what is regarded as normal.
Question: What if the definition of "what is regarded as normal" is skewed? An anomaly is shown when there isn't one. An anomaly is possibly shown of the wrong sign. Not saying this is true, but certainly possible."


This seems like a spurious argument to me. Every time that I've seen a plot of ice extent anomalies, it's been clearly defined as relative to the 1979-2000 mean. Words and phrases are frequently used in the realm of science with different meanings than you'll find in Merriam-Webster. You have to pay attention to how they are defined in a particular context. Certainly no reasonable person with a scientific background would interpret this data as being presented as representative of conditions over thousands of years.
Happy Dance Happy Dance :)

Centre of the Universe is frozen :)

Friday
A mix of sun and cloud. Wind west 20 km/h (12 mph) increasing to 40 km/h (25 mph) gusting to 60 km/h (37 mph) in the morning. High -12C(10F). Wind chill -27. Friday night cloudy periods. Wind west 30 km/h. Low -18C(0F). Wind chill -29.

We can now say that H*ll (Toronto, home of the KOG) has frozen over :)

enjoy that happy dance orca iam ordering you up some cold and 3 feet of snow febuary is coming and iam sure at least 1 maybe two more cold spells along with it
were not frozen just chillin
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
enjoy that happy dance orca iam ordering you up some cold and 3 feet of snow febuary is coming and iam sure at least 1 maybe two more cold spells along with it


Go and read the link on this previous post :)
229. Orcasystems 3:32 AM GMT on January 16, 2009
very funny stuff orca thats about how i feel right now except i havent burn down the building yet
Dear Jeff - Your blog article on arctic sea ice is misleading - this is indeed the biggest climate story of 2008 – but you have it exactly backwards --

Your headline should be:
Sea Ice Ends Year at Same Level as 1979
www.dailytech.com/Article.aspx?newsid=13834
Thanks to a rapid rebound in recent months, global sea ice levels now equal those seen 29 years ago, when the year 1979 also drew to a close. Ice levels had been tracking lower throughout much of 2008, but rapidly recovered in the last quarter. In fact, the rate of increase from September onward is the fastest rate of change on record, either upwards or downwards.“
Good evening. Report from the western suburbs of Chicago. Currently -15F, windchill is
-37F. The schools were closed today in the suburbs. Tonight is forecasted to be even colder.
This is interesting...
Skagway, AK 43F
Ocala, FL 33F

Not often that this happens...
Quoting searcher14:
Dear Jeff - Your blog article on arctic sea ice is misleading - this is indeed the biggest climate story of 2008 – but you have it exactly backwards --

Your headline should be:
Sea Ice Ends Year at Same Level as 1979
www.dailytech.com/Article.aspx?newsid=13834
Thanks to a rapid rebound in recent months, global sea ice levels now equal those seen 29 years ago, when the year 1979 also drew to a close. Ice levels had been tracking lower throughout much of 2008, but rapidly recovered in the last quarter. In fact, the rate of increase from September onward is the fastest rate of change on record, either upwards or downwards.“


While the surface may be the same, all the old ice that is hundreds of years old has melted and i guarantee you that most of the new stuff will melt again.
Dr. Masters.

Fact is, 30 years of satellite records are insufficient to make any judgements regarding climate, period. Especially when melt ponds are counted as open ocean!

http://www.crrel.usace.army.mil/sid/perovich/DKPpdf/complexyet.pdf

And, this year when there was a 'lot of first year' ice the lack of snow cover enabled it to re-freeze faster than most believed and, presto, current ice coverage is on par as 1979! So much for 'current knowledge'.

Let's not forget la nina has come back for the 2nd year in a row when most thought it was a one year singluar event:

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/

Read up on history (I'm sure you have) and you will find "astonishing" lack of ice at the artic in the past 100 years.

As I understand, the winds shifted and blew the ice into warm waters and hastened its summertime dissipation:

http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/report07/ocean.html

Not only that, but, multiple underwater volcanoes (directly under the artic circle) have been erupting since 1999:

http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=299718849952830

To cast blame on any one event (man made or not) is foolish and deceitful of someone with a PhD in science.

And, let's not forget the threat that is Chaiten or Okmok or Kasatochi or ......any of those blow big (VE7+) and it will chill even more than the lagging solar minimum is providing with decreasing solar winds and increasing GCRs.

Pretty much all we can do is enjoy the ride.
Latest from Maine


Clayton Lake, Maine
Lat: 46.62 Lon: -69.53 Elev: 1030
Last Update on Jan 16, 1:25 am EST

NA

-39°F
(-40°C)
Humidity: 65 %
Wind Speed: Calm
Barometer: 30.16" (1028.4 mb)
Dewpoint: -47°F (-44°C)
Visibility: NA
Quoting StormMan:
Dr. Masters.

Fact is, 30 years of satellite records are insufficient to make any judgements regarding climate, period. Especially when melt ponds are counted as open ocean!

http://www.crrel.usace.army.mil/sid/perovich/DKPpdf/complexyet.pdf

And, this year when there was a 'lot of first year' ice the lack of snow cover enabled it to re-freeze faster than most believed and, presto, current ice coverage is on par as 1979! So much for 'current knowledge'.

Let's not forget la nina has come back for the 2nd year in a row when most thought it was a one year singluar event:

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/

Read up on history (I'm sure you have) and you will find "astonishing" lack of ice at the artic in the past 100 years.

As I understand, the winds shifted and blew the ice into warm waters and hastened its summertime dissipation:

http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/report07/ocean.html

Not only that, but, multiple underwater volcanoes (directly under the artic circle) have been erupting since 1999:

http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=299718849952830

To cast blame on any one event (man made or not) is foolish and deceitful of someone with a PhD in science.

And, let's not forget the threat that is Chaiten or Okmok or Kasatochi or ......any of those blow big (VE7+) and it will chill even more than the lagging solar minimum is providing with decreasing solar winds and increasing GCRs.

Pretty much all we can do is enjoy the ride.



hmmm...where to begin??

Let's go to this new, already tired, argument that sea ice this year, globally, was 'on par' with 1979.

This may take a little time, but since you're so adamant in your argument, maybe you'll have the fortitude to accomplish this task...


Let's take every day of sea ice area during 1979 and get the average. Now do the same for 2008. (It seems from your post that you have some resources)

I think you'll find that 1979 averaged a LOT more ice than 2008 did.


Second, what does La Nina coming back a 2nd year have to do with the point of your argument? I simply don't see where that bit of information fits in, but, whatever...


Also, if you read through some of Dr.Masters' blogs you'll see that he has documented the unusual wind patterns in the arctic which blew ice into the North Atlantic in prior blogs. However, unusual wind patterns or not, that still doesn't explain why the arctic was upwards of 5°C above normal last summer. (Yes, temperature does matter too.)


Next, this with the volcanoes again?

Have you ever done the math to see how much magma would have to be erupted to actually warm a fraction of a percent of water in the arctic just...JUST...1°C? I think you'll be quite astonished. Besides, if these volcanoes are located "directly under the arctic circle" as you so claim then how would they melt ice during the summer even considering the wild notion that they would have warmed the surrounding water. Don't you know that sea ice is no where to be found at that latitude during the summer months (except for small strips along the east coast of Greenland and in Hudson Bay)? Most of the sea ice had already retreated north of the arctic circle by the summer. Besides, what we're talking about here is perennial ice, not seasonal ice...

If these volcanoes were even having an effect don't you think we'd see a big polynya in the winter above these supposed volcanoes?

I also take particular exception with this statement

"To cast blame on any one event (man made or not) is foolish and deceitful of someone with a PhD in science."

Had you been a regular reader of this blog, you'd know why.
Wow! Clayton Lake, Me (the airport) is now at -43F!! That has got to be a record for the date.
248. unf97
Good morning everyone. Although it took a bit longer than anticipated, the arctic frontal boundary has finally passed through the Jax metro area. The boundary came through after midnight, and now temps and dew points are falling off at a good rate. Just checked my current temp reading at 34 degrees at 5 a.m. North winds are blowing in at 10-20 mph. Also, a canopy of high cirrus clouds streaming northeast out of the GOM has also keep temp up some during the overnight. However, with the arctic boundary having passed through now, the temperature should drop a few degrees below freezing until around 8 a.m. Very cold day for NE FL/ SE GA area for today. Cold air advection in full effect for the next 2 days. High temps for Jax only expected to reach the mid 40s today. Min temps by Sat morning in the low 20s here in my area of North Jax. Saturday high temp forecast low 50s. A temporary moderation of temps Sunday ahead of another cold front moving into the area late in the weekend. There may be enough of a moisture return ahead of this system to produce rain on Monday into this area. Also, things could get interesting just a few hours up the road from here in the Carolinas on Monday as well. There is a possibilty of light snow in SC midlands/NC piedmont region as partial thickness values, along with a rather significant short wave moving through the base of the deep upper level trough over the Eastern ConUS, may cause that to take plave Monday. Have a good day everyone. Stay warm!
249. IKE
Quoting unf97:
Good morning everyone. Although it took a bit longer than anticipated, the arctic frontal boundary has finally passed through the Jax metro area. The boundary came through after midnight, and now temps and dew points are falling off at a good rate. Just checked my current temp reading at 34 degrees at 5 a.m. North winds are blowing in at 10-20 mph. Also, a canopy of high cirrus clouds streaming northeast out of the GOM has also keep temp up some during the overnight. However, with the arctic boundary having passed through now, the temperature should drop a few degrees below freezing until around 8 a.m. Very cold day for NE FL/ SE GA area for today. Cold air advection in full effect for the next 2 days. High temps for Jax only expected to reach the mid 40s today. Min temps by Sat morning in the low 20s here in my area of North Jax. Saturday high temp forecast low 50s. A temporary moderation of temps Sunday ahead of another cold front moving into the area late in the weekend. There may be enough of a moisture return ahead of this system to produce rain on Monday into this area. Also, things could get interesting just a few hours up the road from here in the Carolinas on Monday as well. There is a possibilty of light snow in SC midlands/NC piedmont region as partial thickness values, along with a rather significant short wave moving through the base of the deep upper level trough over the Eastern ConUS, may cause that to take plave Monday. Have a good day everyone. Stay warm!


Your temperature probably won't make it a few degrees below freezing this morning....

Jacksonville, Florida (Airport)
Updated: 32 min 57 sec ago
Clear
35 °F

Clear
Windchill: 29 °F
Humidity: 42%
Dew Point: 14 °F
Wind: 7 mph from the NNW
Pressure: 30.51 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 30 ft


I'm to your west...in Defuniak Springs,FL. I've got 30.0 right now. Actually...30.2. 30.0 has been my low so far.

Not near as cold as forecasted. The high just didn't go far enough south.
250. IKE
Winds here are already NNE.
251. IKE
Quoting TampaSpin:


That moisture is what im talking about combinded with the low temps tonite will make things very interesting in parts of Florida...white stuff could be very possible!


Sorry TampaSpin....no snow...air is way too dry....don't get pissed at me..just observing...

252. unf97
Yeah, the temperature probly will drop to 31-32 degrees by 8.a.m., before they slowly warm up today. That high cirrus cloud canopy out of the GOM helped in keeping the temps from really falling overnight. Also, thr arctic boundary took a bit longer to pass through North FL also, which I discussed earlier. The real cold conditions will be tonight and Safurday morning. Although the center of the Arctic High will stay north of this region, plenty of cold air spilling in will give hard freeze warning criteria to us all in North FL/ South GA , especially tomorrow morning.
There is a new invest by Australia although it looks very rugged and if a coc is found it looks like it would be on land.
Sun, Mon , and Tuesday's snow chance increased from 30% to 40% if this continues we will have some good snow even a snow day if it lasts till Wednesday.
It's COLD in Carolina this Morning~!!
ILM is 25 with a a wind chill of 13!!!
Clear skies with a West wind at 14
High is only going to be 34!!!
Good Morning All- 13 degrees here in Sunny Southern Maryland. Which beats the -30 at my sister's in western Maine. Orca, thanks for the diary pages, needed a good laugh.

Stay Warm
Good morning all.
Maybe this will warm y'all up a little.
The current temp here is 58.8.

Aloha and Good Morning...I woke to 48 degrees here in SWFL --better then yesterday 47. Just hoping the SUN will be out. The skies were so grey and cloudy --looked like the North-- not a tropic paradise.

SWFL Cold front Surf Info.
The big chill has descending upon us, but the big swell is still eluding us. Yesterday morning we had an inconsistent, shin/knee high, glassy little leftover. Probably a long board wave out there, but that is it for today. last night the Arctic blast swept past the state dropping the temps down into the "shrivel" zone and possibly bump up the surf (waist high at best) at the best N facing beaches BBBRRRR! Gulf Temp 64

I'm not getting wet on this one
Whew, MissNadia -- mighty frosty --
Hi Surfmom..good sleeping weather in SRQ.
true MissNadia,,,,,, but I'd much prefer a nap in the Sun on a HOT Beach.....and wearing all these layers of thermal clothes cramps my style!!
morning all from zephyrhills FL. only down to 41 last night thanks to the clouds over head. have a great day.
Frigid weather extends its reach over U.S.


A bitter mass of cold air extended its grip across much of the United States early Friday morning. The upper Midwest, Ohio Valley, New England and even the Southeast suffered under dangerous temperatures and brisk winds.

In Minneapolis, Minnesota, it was minus 17 degrees early Friday, and the forecast high was only 8 degrees, CNN affiliate KARE reported.

Minnesotans are famous for embracing frigid weather, but this wave even has them staying indoors. A couple hundred schools around Minneapolis either called off classes all together or started late Thursday, KARE said.

The arctic blast caused pipes to bust in St. Louis, Missouri, CNN affiliate KPLR said. Friday's high is expected to reach 18 degrees.

A wind-chill advisory is in effect in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, CNN affiliate WPXI said. It was minus 2 degrees early Friday, and with the wind, it felt like minus 20, WPXI said.

The cold snap has gripped the United States for days. It was brutal in Ames, Iowa, on Wednesday.

"Last night, the temperature was still above zero (3 degrees Fahrenheit), but the wind chill (minus 14 degrees) was cold enough to make your skin burn," iReporter Kevin Cavallin said.

"When it gets this cold, your hands are just in pain when doing something as simple as carrying bags of groceries from the car to the apartment."

It was 48 below in Fargo, North Dakota, where unprotected fingers could suffer frostbite in 60 seconds, CNN meteorologist Rob Marciano said.

The freezing temperatures are likely to remain in the East through the weekend, according to the National Weather Service. There were low teens Thursday along much of the Interstate 95 corridor, which hugs the Atlantic from Maine to Florida.

It was 17 in New York, which had a moderate snowfall Thursday that delayed flights a few hours on the ground at LaGuardia Airport.

"If you live east of the Mississippi River, the temperature at mid-morning may be the best you'll get," Marciano added.

Temperatures dipped to 19 degrees below zero in Michigan and 10 below in Chicago, Illinois. Snow caused more traffic nightmares in the Midwest.

The Southeast is not being spared this time. A cold high-pressure system is expected to remain over the area through Saturday, the National Weather Service said. Another cold front is expected to move in late Sunday.
Link
263. IKE
Quoting IKE:


Same here in Defuniak Springs,FL. I'm on lake-front property with another lake across the street. It's almost always about 5 degrees warmer then forecast.

My forecast for tonight is for a low from 22 to 26. That usually means upper 20's where I live.


And upper 20's it's been....low so far.... 28.6....the sun is coming up now......
temp here has dropped a degree in the last hour. Sun coming up, hope it warms up some.
Morning everyone.

Orca, your "diary" cracked me up bro, brought an early morning smile to my face, thanks.
Good Morning, temp in Macon, Ga is 20*F, wind chill of 10*F. Warm compared to Fargo, ND.
267. IKE
28.4 was my low....it's cold outside....temp is heading up now.
Sorry, had to modify my post, was not -20, hit the dash button instead of the = button, need more coffee.
This cold weather is cramping my sense of fashion....hard to dress like a pirate with layers of thermal insulated clothes...hard to dance and swagger the deck as well with frosty toes.... ahhh well this to shall pass

although I don't like looking like a Pasty....(people from the north)

much prefer looking like a tart!
tart, noun, 1. small pastry shell filled with cooked fruit. HMMMM
I am up in Lake City today Ike, no snow, just a freeze, and no tropical weather in sight! Good Morning Stormw, JP and others!
How can you comment on the state of sea ice with only a microspopic sample of data. How can you attribute fire soot as a possible cause. I woulds bet most Americans don't realize we have more trees in the US today than we did over the last thousand years. Yep, we put the fires out now and they dont burn millions of acres. So, what exactly is the temp of the earth suppose to be? What was the temp suppose to be in the last ice age? Why have we experienced a cooling trend over the last 10 years? Yes humans affect things , but much less than touted by the Al Gore folks who have made billions misleading the unknowing with opinion and no real relevent data. You cannot take a few years of data from a dynamic planet that is billions of years old and conclude anything. Fotrunately, not everyone is fooled.
was -10 this morning for me,just outside Boston.Guess I won't work on my tan today.
274. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:
I am up in Lake City today Ike, no snow, just a freeze, and no tropical weather in sight! Good Morning Stormw, JP and others!


StormW...lol.....you keep hoping he'll be back in time for the 2009 season.....
Quoting IKE:
28.4 was my low....it's cold outside....temp is heading up now.


BRRRRR Ike! I recorded 32.1 here in Panama City Beach.
34 here in Savannah this morning. We are going to FREEZE tomorrow racing the boat. Ugh...I guess that is why they call it "the frigid digit" series...was kind of hoping for 75 and sunny.
good morning all, 23 this morning. quick question is flurries are rumored and also forecasted by local mets. what are your thoughts?
278. GBlet
Someone needs to go gather the frozen beach bunnies! Poor things...
A few reports from northern Maine pegged the temperature at -50°F this morning!!

Lowest reading I saw on an ASOS was -44°F at Clayton Lake!


Though not as cold as this current airmass is, another arctic blast will be coming down the pike next Friday! ECMWF model has another large dome of arctic high pressure (1050mb) building into the Northern Plains. This ain't over yet!
Quoting GBlet:
Someone needs to go gather the frozen beach bunnies! Poor things...


help! help! and take us to a much warmer latitude
Quoting melwerle:
34 here in Savannah this morning. We are going to FREEZE tomorrow racing the boat. Ugh...I guess that is why they call it "the frigid digit" series...was kind of hoping for 75 and sunny.


Oh geeze Mel -- that sounds like a Torture Session to me!!!! I surely will try not to complain while working the horses out tomorrow --it's so hard for my cold fingers to change out tack -- can not fathom how you get yours to work......

and the runny nose -- no way to blow my nose or catch the run off holding a crop/whip in one hand and the reins in another..... no glamour photo shoots this week!!
Good morning,

I do not know what the low was for the morning, but at 10:25EST, it has yet to make it above freezing.

Today we will not see 40F, for sure. I am dreading the trek to work tomorrow. The low tonight/tomorrow morning on the peninsula is predicted to be 22F. To my way of thinking, no one should leave her house until we hit above freezing. (Sigh)
My car was cold in the driveway this morning but all my plants were warm in the garage. The sacrifices we Floridians have to make...
Well, I hope you agree it was worth the wait!

It's up! Click here to watch my video "Experience Hurricane Dolly - in HD!" on YouTube.

You'll find the "watch in HD" clickable text on the bottom, right-hand portion of the video screen.

As always, enjoy.

CycloneOz---



I have been watching the barometric pressure rise for the last few days, and became curious as to the highest pressure on record in Charleston.
In the lower 48, Charleston, South Carolina has the highest pressure changes, with a 27.64 to 30.85 inches in mercury (935.99 to 1044.70 millibars) range. (source)

So the record high was 30.85, it is now 30.64 and still rising.
no kidding surfmom - for the first time, I'm not looking forward to spending the day out on the water.

Sounds like neither one of us will be having any glamour shots taken - can't wear gloves on the boat, and my jacket is HUGE and ugly. There will be no "looking cute" tomorrow for either of us, I'm sure.

Minus 12 here in northern ohio overnight; a balmy -3 out right now. The only good to come out of this artic airmass is that Lake Erie is now mostly frozen over- putting an end to the lake effect snows.
Quoting melwerle:
no kidding surfmom - for the first time, I'm not looking forward to spending the day out on the water.

Sounds like neither one of us will be having any glamour shots taken - can't wear gloves on the boat, and my jacket is HUGE and ugly. There will be no "looking cute" tomorrow for either of us, I'm sure.


Why can't you wear gloves on the boat?
Quoting lakeEFX:
Minus 12 here in northern ohio overnight; a balmy -3 out right now. The only good to come out of this artic airmass is that Lake Erie is now mostly frozen over- putting an end to the lake effect snows.



You can still get lake effect with a frozen lake...

Latent heat passes easily through the ice to provide the necessary thermodynamics for lake effect snow. However, the airmass aloft has to be much colder than what it would normally take to produce them. Also, one would need a longer fetch and a more pronounced cyclonic flow pattern.

With the lake frozen over the possibility also increases for blizzards coming off the lake from accumulated snowfall on top of the ice. Case in point, the blizzard of 1977, which has a chance or repeating itself this winter given the proper pattern.
Yes humans affect things , but much less than touted by the Al Gore folks who have made billions misleading the unknowing with opinion and no real relevent data. You cannot take a few years of data from a dynamic planet that is billions of years old and conclude anything. Fotrunately, not everyone is fooled.





"and today, ve vill study the Al Gore theory: one sore loser + world tour on GW = cha-ching!"


I can't wear the warm gloves (like mittens) because they won't grip on the ropes...if you know of any that are actually warm, tell me where to find them!!!

"First, I'm certainly no expert here, but I thought that the PDO index is negative right now."
Correct!
Why would we be comparing the Arctic ice extent a week from now to the "norm" for that date in a positive PDO? Second, what is the "norm" Arctic ice extent during a positive PDO on January 22 and where can I find this information?"

That is exactly hat we are doing, though. We are comparing the current values to an average that is primarily populated by values measured during a positive PDO condition. That average is in the plot I posted.

"What I said was that making a bet that the anomaly would be negative a week from now when it has already been negative for years seems pretty safe. Again, why would anyone think that it would turn positive in the next seven days?"

I said further negative in the next week. I couldn't see anyone expecting a positive anomaly soon against that baseline.

"This seems like a spurious argument to me. Every time that I've seen a plot of ice extent anomalies, it's been clearly defined as relative to the 1979-2000 mean. Words and phrases are frequently used in the realm of science with different meanings than you'll find in Merriam-Webster. You have to pay attention to how they are defined in a particular context. Certainly no reasonable person with a scientific background would interpret this data as being presented as representative of conditions over thousands of years."

We somewhat agree on this, too. My point is that the base period to define the norm HAS to be paid attention to, but too often is left out of discussion. An average of thousands of years as a baseline would provide a far better climactic measuring stick than calculating an anomaly based on only 1979-2000. We do not know if 1979-2000 was itself a period of anomalously high sea ice extents.
Maybe sea ice extents have been normal for the last 10 years. How do we know and where do we get off pretending we do?
Sullivan - I know you can still get lake effect snow from a frozen lake, as we often do, but for this area, the intensity of these squalls is not the same. I know, I've lived here for over 50 years. But thanks for the great info. ( I'll never forget the blizzard of 1978- yesterday was the 31st anniversary. Barometer reach all time record low here at 28.28.)
Quoting melwerle:
I can't wear the warm gloves (like mittens) because they won't grip on the ropes...if you know of any that are actually warm, tell me where to find them!!!


Ahh.. Perhaps someone will have an idea.
I was once told that wet wool socks give better insulation from the cold than other wet socks. - So of course I had to test that theory, by hanging my feet over the side into the water one winter. They were right - wet wool is pretty amazing actually.
Best bet is to keep the feet dry though, lol
295. unf97
Low temp at my home for this morning 31 degrees in North Jax. Current temp at noon 41 degrees.
Quoting melwerle:
I can't wear the warm gloves (like mittens) because they won't grip on the ropes...if you know of any that are actually warm, tell me where to find them!!!



Any mountain climbers out there? What sort of gloves do you use?
Quoting melwerle:
34 here in Savannah this morning. We are going to FREEZE tomorrow racing the boat. Ugh...I guess that is why they call it "the frigid digit" series...was kind of hoping for 75 and sunny.


Here in the UK where it's a "temperate" clime -ie seldom colder than -10C at night, maybe up to 14C on mild days - sailboat races at this time of year are called Icicle races! Anyone trying it this weekend could get quite a turn of speed, as winds at the northern end are forecast gusting to 70mph. Temperate climate also means that for much of the country, it doesn't often make 75(f) and sunny for more than a few days at a time in summer. *sigh*
atmo~We do not know if 1979-2000 was itself a period of anomalously high sea ice extents.
Maybe sea ice extents have been normal for the last 10 years. How do we know and where do we get off pretending we do?


Where do you get off pretending that ships haven't been easily passing through a wide open nw passage the last two summers like never before in written history? It's been a human quest to find this fabled passage wide open every summer for 1000s of years with no luck til now. There is people that live up there. They have been conserned with diminishing ice for decades. Satalites were purposely put up to measure the melting because we knew it was changing by ground observations & wanted to measure exactly how much.
Quoting KEHCharleston:


Any mountain climbers out there? What sort of gloves do you use?


REI Thermo Gloves/Mittens

Quoting AtsaFunnyToo:


REI Thermo Gloves/Mittens



Thanks AtsaFunnyToo
Where do you get off pretending that ships haven't been easily passing through a wide open nw passage the last two summers like never before in written history?

I didn't say that...which means that I didn't say that. But are you claiming that it is completely impossible that they are not simply benefiting from what could be a combination of normal ice extents and satellite information (keep reading before you answer)?

Quoting Skyepony:
atmo~


It's been a human quest to find this fabled passage wide open every summer for 1000s of years with no luck til now. There is people that live up there. They have been conserned with diminishing ice for decades. Satalites were purposely put up to measure the melting because we knew it was changing by ground observations & wanted to measure exactly how much.




Every summer? Starting at exactly the right moment when a channel might be open for a week or 2? Before satellites could tell them that they wouldn't get trapped, freeze, and die?

There aren't that many people up there and haven't been in the past, either. We cannot actually claim that the NW passage hasn't ever been open before in the last few hundred years (when we cared) nor that it is open far more now than further back in the planet's past.

(I would lay money down saying it was, especially in the Medieval Warm Period.)

My real concern is that we are drawing way too many conclusions by comparing the average of that limited satellite period to current observations. I don't supposed that can change until we have measured it for another 60 years, at a minimum.

As to people on the ground noticing less ice, we all know that amplitudes and movements of the semi-permanent highs can change which way the prevailing wind blows, and, thus, disperse ice earlier and/or blow some of it out to the Atlantic or Pacific.
And those dominant features are absolutely connected to natural cycles. Therefore, a few decades of people on the shores making obs about when the ice broke still means a whole lot of nothing.
Quoting KEHCharleston:


Any mountain climbers out there? What sort of gloves do you use?


I am not a "cold weather" climber, meaning climbing mountains covered with snow and ice is not something I have ever done nor would I want to. Do have knowledge and personal military experience in mountain climbing, using ropes for various types of ascents or descents. Gloves for these purposes come in different versions for use with ropes for various weather conditions. Can usually be found today on the net sold by companys catering to that sport. My experience with motorcycles for the last forty years may be as helpful. We ride in colder temps than most bikers simply because we are better prepared. Gloves for below freezing are called Artic Gloves. They are the long gaunlet types that go over the outside of your heavy jacket so air does not penetrate your jacket sleeves. They are useless for cold weather riding in temps above freezing when it begins to rain however. That has always been the problem. Solved it with Playtex gloves from the grocery store. They come in different types from the standard just to keep your hands from getting wet, to stronger types to keep Bleach and house hold chemicals off your skin. Problem is they get cold fast. A set of woolen inserts solves that problem. For winter use I buy the Gas Tanker Driver Rubber Gloves sold at most big truck stops, because they are heavier and the palms are covered with a sandpaper texture for gripping the gas hoses they have to handle when delivering to gas stations. Buy a size larger than your winter gloves on your hand, tuck the flaps under your rain parka so water doesn't flow down and into the gloves. They are much cheaper than fancy mountain gloves, and should do the trick.
No one can dispute that reconds kept by cave men about sea ice are the most accurate available. Just like the records kept on global temps over the last 1000 years. Place not your trust in someones projection / interpretation of fact, but in the fact itself. Science is based upon fact not stories. The assertion that we can extrapolate missing historical data from 20 years worth of observation is rediculous. Hence why so many are easily mislead by the few.
RE: 302. RTLSNK

Thanks! Lot of options there.
Thank you!

Now I have to go into town and try to find these - my sailing gloves SUCK compared to these - these actually have FINGERS and are made from neoprop instead of leather...hoooooray...!!!

Link
atmo~sorry typo 1000s should be 100s & yes the british navy kept at it every summer, looking for a lost ship, many have made it their life's quest. As for the Inuit they have lived in the area roughly 1000years, not decades. They are living the results 1st hand..

The Inuit have no voice at the conference, since they are not a nation state, but Mrs Watt-Cloutier said: "We are already bearing the brunt of climate change - without our snow and ice our way of life goes. We have lived in harmony with our surroundings for millennia, but that is being taken away from us
BTW, the satellites were placed for national security purposes, not sea ice observation. We must detach feelings from fact in order to see clearly.
We must detach feelings from fact in order to see clearly.

thank you Mr. Spock.
Live long and prosper
"... hmmm get rid of emotions yes... you must... if you are to learn the ways of star fleet.. and end VMGW....."

er um.. oops... sorry.

just a little confused today.
Confusion only exists in the mind that does not possess the knowledge to make the right decision. IE> I think I am indecisive, but not really sure.
wow...that's a first...Mr. Spock killed the main blog....

;)
Quoting Ossqss:
Confusion only exists in the mind that does not possess the knowledge to make the right decision. IE> I think I am indecisive, but not really sure.


LOL.
Sorry, on a conference call and effectively bored stiff. I will cease and desist. Farewell cruel world.
315. Ossqss 10:12 AM PST on January 16, 2009
Sorry, on a conference call and effectively bored stiff. I will cease and desist. Farewell cruel world.


just drink a V8...or switch your auto insurance to Geiko...that should make you feel better...

I used spaghetti sauce and progressive, but still feel better, so on with the golf shirt and to the linx for the remainder of the day. Thanks for the suggestion. It is a bit cold ( 60 here) but I will get over it. Be well
Quoting melwerle:
Thank you!

Now I have to go into town and try to find these - my sailing gloves SUCK compared to these - these actually have FINGERS and are made from neoprop instead of leather...hoooooray...!!!

Link


No, thank you, that link was great, they look better than the "oil gloves" we are using!
"... sorry bout that mates.. didnt mean to kill the blog...."

BTW, what was the blog supposed to be about anyhow?
you owe me another Dr. Pepper now, Gulf.....
I live were we launch these things from. Family pretty deeply involed in space program. These satalites with all these enviromental gadjets & sensor launched by NASA are not spy satalites. We don't monitor the sun with spy satalites either. AF launches security things...

Perhaps I'm not in my top debating mind frame today but lets not pretend ice core samples haven't been studied, the planet started warming around 1980 & because ya read a few articles funded by an oil company you have a clue. Why does Exxon say that CO2 in the air is warming the world? What can they gain from this hoax? Where does the mail I recieved yesterday from the oil institue begging me to contact my rep on their behalf have to play into this? Why is everything melting & warming way faster than the IPCC predicted if they are so full of it. Why has every science teacher I have had lied to me & that greenhouse gas experiement at Clemson University I did in lab..what type of magic made that show CO2 traps heat to the earth?

I'm not saying & I haven't really seen anyone saying CO2 is the end all blame all. There is natural variations & cycles. But lay a layer of black soot on ice & it melts faster. & our CO2 spewwing, tree killing lifestyle may be the end of our species or atleast many of us if we trigger a quick shift. Why are some ya'll so negative about cleaning up & insist on doing nothing while we gather more, better data, while driving off anyone from here that disagrees or has any sort a science background?
320. Ossqss 10:19 AM PST on January 16, 2009
BTW, what was the blog supposed to be about anyhow?


How Al Gore made up GW to rake in the cha-ching!
Did you know that one volcanic eruption puts more CO2 in the atmosphere than the entire human race has for decades ?
Thanks, I just saw Al's private jet coming in for a landing in Sarasota. He has escort planes you know.
Quoting Ossqss:
Did you know that one volcanic eruption puts more CO2 in the atmosphere than the entire human race has for decades ?



Dr. Masters actually commented in his blog following my long winded attempt at this line.

Volcanos also eject more particulate matter that actually blocks sunlight and thus creates COOLING.

net net it's a temperature reducing event.
my long winded attempt


long winded? You?!

;)
Correct, but the particulate matter is short lived and eventually falls back to the earth. The CO2 does not operate the same way.

So what we should do is explode some bombs in some dorment volcanos to counteract the GW in the short term? But wait, the global temp has been dropping for the last 10 years/ Now I am really confused.
One should not debate on something they are confused about...
It must be the spock comments, my ego is shot now.
Quoting GulfPoet:



Dr. Masters actually commented in his blog following my long winded attempt at this line.

Volcanos also eject more particulate matter that actually blocks sunlight and thus creates COOLING.

net net it's a temperature reducing event.


And deposit a lot of non-white aerosols into the upper troposphere and stratosphere that come out...where? 30N, 30S, and at the poles. How many volcanoes in the NH and/or SH and relative numbers to each other? More in the NH.



I very much agree with one component of Skye's latest...soot, it's transport, it's deposition over historical time, and it's mitigation needs to be investigated very well before we dive on into carbon taxes.

Could be that the Arctic sea ice is being diminished. And could be that we waste a lot of time and effort for naught if we are looking at the wrong anthropogenic byproduct and ignore one that would be far easier to control.
Quoting Ossqss:
Live long and prosper
Live long and PROSPER??!??!

Yikes, I thought it was live long and PROPER.
No wonder it feels like I have lived a long time, and my bank account is pathetic!
ahhhh...I am enjoying this nice sunny day in the 50s, this is my fav weather. Sure beats summer here, ugh. Doesn't look like the true arctic air is making it past north Fl. Where in north Fl is snow a possibility over the next couple days?
"... clearly this problem has many more dimensions and can easily create confusion..."


Lifting above the mundane details to view the senario at a high level removes the soot in the situation and clears the air. Its the solar flares and asteroids that are the problem here.
336. wial
I'm curious, all you anthropogenic climate change deniers, on what do you base your assertions? Why is it so easy to believe the likes of Rush and a few misinformed aging cold war physicists and corrupt corporate shills, and not the vast majority of all climate scientists and the overwhelming preponderance of evidence verifiably explained by simple-to-understand, well-grounded theory?

Also, why do you come to Dr. Masters' site at all? Aren't there creationist sites that attempt to predict the weather? Wouldn't you be happier there? There are short buses leaving for those parts all the time. Maybe the waving of the necks of the living dinosaurs in Africa is what is causing this climate mess? Go find them! Prove us wrong!

I'm all for lively scientific debate you see. Come back with some extraordinary evidence and we'll consider your extraordinary claims.
Theory is the correct term to use. Empirical data is the missing factor.
Also, why do you come to Dr. Masters' site at all?

I thought that was obvious.
Climate change is real and has been around since the beinning of time. What is the correct temperature for our poor planet, then prove it.
Quoting wial:
Come back with some extraordinary evidence and we'll consider your extraordinary claims.


Backatcha!

As to the rest of your questions, you need to read back a lot.
There are short buses leaving for those parts all the time.

was that really necessary? That one sentence took away any credibility you might have had.
*sigh* Was hoping to see some discussion/information about the possible snow event early next week but all I find is GW bickering.
Quoting NRAamy:
There are short buses leaving for those parts all the time.

was that really necessary? That one sentence took away any credibility you might have had.


Very true. No reason at all for that.
Quoting CycloneOz:
Well, I hope you agree it was worth the wait!

It's up! Click here to watch my video "Experience Hurricane Dolly - in HD!" on YouTube.

You'll find the "watch in HD" clickable text on the bottom, right-hand portion of the video screen.

As always, enjoy.

CycloneOz---





Good video but, the not the most smartest thing i have ever seen.......i hope others don't follow....wow....not smart!
They've been doing the soot research. They see the contibubters as they pop up. They have the % worked out even. I can't remember exactly but both are problems. & both in many ways are related in energy making...Probibly help both if we quit burning coal for energy. Many ways~ same root problem.
And I thought this was tropical blog,how misinformed I was!!
An opened mind leavesall options available. When you make up your mind prior to earning the right to understand that which you consider truth , you lose perspective as have many who have rushed to the side of GW before having real facts to back them up. If you notice, many of those who have earned the right to discuss our climate item, have now come out against the popular vision of our issue. Short bus dictates a short temper. Ha! I have never been so insulated in my life. Cold weather pun if you will.
There will never be consensus on climate change in America in our lifetime because a certain unnamed party decided to turn it into a political football. First they denied its existence, then when the evidence became overwhelming they just denied the man-made aspect. Once that evidence becomes overwhelming the debate will be shifted again, and again. Injecting superfluous doubt is a time-tested delay tactic. Consider that we still don't know the actual root cause of gravity but we clearly see its effect in measurements. Should we assume it's a myth until every last detail is proven, or should we proceed as if gravity does exist because the consequences of acting otherwise could be harsh?
Quoting NEwxguy:
And I thought this was tropical blog,how misinformed I was!!


I hear ya.

(In our defense, Dr M started it! At least we have been sticking mostly to the Arctic sea ice discussion.)
WHat if we place millions of wind power turbines on the earth and in the currents off of our coast and covered the deserts with solar panels. What happens to the climate when we alter the natural flow of our weather and extract the energy that is required by nature in those areas.
Does the sea ice come back like it will anyhow?
350. Ossqss 10:58 AM PST on January 16, 2009
WHat if we place millions of wind power turbines on the earth and in the currents off of our coast and covered the deserts with solar panels. What happens to the climate when we alter the natural flow of our weather and extract the energy that is required by nature in those areas.


or tunnels?

;)
NEW OUTLOOK POSTED:
South Florida StormWatch
Sometimes the proposed solutions are worse than the percieved problem.
OK, the questions get harder from here on out.

Think about it. No wind in the summer for the turbines ate it all up. But we can use that energy to make big fans blow on NYC to cool it off since there is no natural wind left to feel.

There is no right or wrong with speculation. My piont is not to accept without challeng that which is being forced down your throat by teh media and self proclaimed experts. There are no experts in climate change, only those who think they are.
Quoting wial:
I'm curious, all you anthropogenic climate change deniers, on what do you base your assertions? Why is it so easy to believe the likes of Rush and a few misinformed aging cold war physicists and corrupt corporate shills, and not the vast majority of all climate scientists and the overwhelming preponderance of evidence verifiably explained by simple-to-understand, well-grounded theory?

Also, why do you come to Dr. Masters' site at all? Aren't there creationist sites that attempt to predict the weather? Wouldn't you be happier there? There are short buses leaving for those parts all the time. Maybe the waving of the necks of the living dinosaurs in Africa is what is causing this climate mess? Go find them! Prove us wrong!

I'm all for lively scientific debate you see. Come back with some extraordinary evidence and we'll consider your extraordinary claims.



Wow...

You sound like you have an open mind...


Corporate shills and Rush, huh?

Believe it or not there's TONS of other competing theories from credible scientist, by the way, that try to explain why our climate is changing. Greenhouse gasses is simply one facet in a multifaceted chaotic system.


OH, and as many people you believe are 'paid off' by the oil companies are the same amount of people that are being paid off by 'green' groups and lobbys. It's the same on both sides. That's why once a day there's a fanatical story about the supposed doom global warming/climate change will bestow upon us. Like methane exploding out of the oceans and spontaneously igniting to burn every living thing on the planet...


I find it hilarious that you actually believe that someone that doesn't believe in the catastrophic form of runaway global warming is somehow a religious fanatic that belongs on a 'creationist site'. Great stereotyping there

/snark
Quoting Ossqss:
Sometimes the proposed solutions are worse than the percieved problem.

Plastic bags instead of (renewable) paper to save the trees.

Didn't do a thing for the rainforest and has been an environmental disaster of incredible proportions, IMHO.

Cure did not fit the cause, and created a much worse situation.
There are no experts in climate change, only those who think they are.


just like there is no crying in baseball?

;)
I resemble that remark, the short bus part. Well done
I am quite surprised you answered that, sully.

But good points.
Cause and cure--- look at what ehe subsidies for ethanol have done for us? High food costs, starvation in those areas who used to get our corn. In Florida, where it is mandated to use that crappy fuel, many gnerators that will fail from the water the ethanol absorbs and the gaskets it destroys. The 33% less efficient nature of it in general is a waste of time. If you got 30 mpg with real gas, you will now get 20mpg with the big mistake fuel. OK, i am getting off point.
It really annoys me when people are thick-headed and stereotypical.

It's also the same reason why I made the reply I did in comment #246.

record event report
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1208 am akst Fri Jan 16 2009

... Record high minimum temperature set in Anchorage Thursday...

A record high minimum temperature of 36 degrees was set in Anchorage
yesterday. This breaks the old record of 33 degrees previously set in
1981.

Records have been kept in Anchorage since 1917.

Nrh Jan 09
Record high temperature for today shatters previous record...

The official temperature in Anchorage reached 50 degrees earlier
this morning... shattering the previous record high of 44 degrees set
in the years 1992 and 1926. This also ties for the second highest
official January temperature reading for the municipality of
Anchorage. The January record high temperature is 56 degrees set
January 7, 1934. Temperatures could possibly rise above 50 degrees
later today.

In addition to today's record high, a record high minimum
temperature was set yesterday when the official temperature dropped
only to a low of 36 degrees. This surpassed the previous record high
minimum temperature of 33 degrees set in 1981.

Official temperatures for the municipality of Anchorage are taken at
the NWS forecast office on Sand Lake Road. Records have been kept
in Anchorage since 1917
Quoting sullivanweather:
It really annoys me when people are thick-headed and stereotypical.

It's also the same reason why I made the reply I did in comment #246.



Gee, I hope you don't think of me that way.

As a science guy, I hope you recognize the difference between the above and my usual poke-at-whatever-holes-I-see methods.
Awesome...you guys are still talking about this!

357. Don't forget plastic containers for just about everything. At least glass sinks.

Some may think I am a "tree hugging weirdo" but I always ask for paper. Renewable - easier to recycle and it decomposes.

Ossgss- Do you work for an oil company or what?

Of course there are natural cycles involved. Unfortunately, we will never have the ability to prove the outcome would be any different if we change now, later, or never.(see my last post several pages back) That doesn't mean we can't do better. Burn less coal and petroleum - it will last longer for other uses and future generations. I'm all for solar panels and we may need tons of petroleum to produce them. We will need it to lubricate certain things as well until something better is discovered.

Just like I teach my wolf cubs.....Do your best!
That basically means there is always room for improvement.
new blog
Oil company, not the case. I simply observe what the minority does to the majority in this country and how hungry we are for bad news. It is unfortunate that many decisions are pushed into peoples heads by unknowing celebrities and distributers of propaganda and no truth attached.

Room for improvbement, certainly. Facts and forethought are the factors that must come into play. Not the wealthy pushing their platform nor the green community waiting for the end to come. We live here together and should form our future together without dispute. How can that be done? Communication and sharing facts not fiction. No one can say they know the truth about sea ice, climate change or anything this big blue ball does. Only time will provide that which we seek. THe question is, do we have enough time to figure it out or is the big asteroid coming to take us away. Be well all and thanks for the challenging bloggin today. I always tune in, but rarely participate. Adios
Why doesn't the PDO cycle explain both Arctic "warming" and Antartic Pennisula warming?