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Average hurricane season foreseen by CSU, NOAA, and TSR

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:45 PM GMT on June 02, 2009

A near-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2009, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued June 2 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 88% of average. Between 1950 - 2000, the average season had 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. But since 1995, the beginning of an active hurricane period in the Atlantic, we've averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes per year. The new forecast is a step down from their April forecast, which called for 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The new forecast calls for a near-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (28% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (28% chance, 30% chance is average). The Caribbean is also forecast to have an average risk of a major hurricane.

The forecasters cited several reasons for an average season:

1) Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Atlantic are quite cool. In fact, these SST anomalies are at their coolest level since July 1994. Cooler-than-normal waters provide less heat energy for developing hurricanes. In addition, an anomalously cool tropical Atlantic is typically associated with higher sea level pressure values and stronger-than-normal trade winds, indicating a more stable atmosphere with increased levels of vertical wind shear detrimental for hurricanes. Substantial cooling began in November 2008 (Figure 1), primarily due to a stronger than average Bermuda-Azores High that drove strong trade winds. These strong winds increased the mixing of cool waters to the surface from below, and caused increased evaporational cooling.

2) Hurricane activity in the Atlantic is lowest during El Niño years and highest during La Niña or neutral years. This occurs because El Niño conditions bring higher wind shear over the tropical Atlantic. The CSU team expects the current neutral conditions may transition to El Niño conditions (70% chance) by this year's hurricane season. I discussed the possibility of a El Niño conditions developing this year in a blog posted Friday.


Figure 1. Change in Sea Surface Temperature anomaly between November 2008 and 2009. Most of the Atlantic has cooled significantly, relative to normal, over the past 7 months. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Analogue years
The CSU team picked five previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: neutral to slightly warm ENSO conditions, slightly below-average tropical Atlantic SSTs, and above-average far North Atlantic SSTs during April-May. Those five years were 2002, which featured Hurricane Lili that hit Louisiana as a Category 1 storm; 2001, featuring Category 4 storms Michelle, which hit Cuba, and Iris, which hit Belize; 1965, which had Category 3 Betsy that hit New Orleans; 1960, which had two Category 5 hurricanes, Ethyl and Donna; and 1959, which had Category 3 Hurricane Gracie, which hit South Carolina. The mean activity for these five years was 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, almost the same as the 2009 CSU forecast.

How accurate are the June forecasts?
The June forecasts by the CSU team have historically offered a skill of 20 - 30% higher than a "no-skill" forecast using climatology (Figure 2). This is a decent amount of skill for a seasonal forecast, and these June forecasts can be useful to businesses such as the insurance industry and oil and gas industry that need to make bets on how active the coming hurricane season will be. This year's June forecast uses the same formula as last year's June forecast, which did quite well predicting the 2008 hurricane season (prediction: 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 intense hurricanes; observed: 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 5 intense hurricanes). An Excel spreadsheet of their forecast skill (expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient) show values from 0.44 to 0.58 for their June forecasts, which is respectable.


Figure 2. Accuracy of long-range forecasts of Atlantic hurricane season activity performed at Colorado State University (CSU) by Dr. Bill Gray's team (colored squares) and Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR, colored lines). The skill is measured by the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS), which looks at the error and squares it, then compares the percent improvement the forecast has over a climatological forecast of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. TS=Tropical Storms, H=Hurricanes, IH=Intense Hurricanes, ACE=Accumulated Cyclone Energy, NTC=Net Tropical Cyclone Activity. Image credit: TSR.

NOAA's 2009 hurricane season forecast
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), issued its 2009 Atlantic hurricane season forecast on May 21. NOAA anticipates that an average season it most likely, giving a 50% chance of a near-normal season, 25% chance of an above-normal season, and a 25% chance of a below-normal season. They give a 70% chance that there will be 9 - 14 named storms, 4 - 7 hurricanes, 1 - 3 major hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) in the 65% - 130% of normal range. The forecasters cited the following main factors that will influence the coming season:

1) We are in an active period of hurricane activity that began in 1995, thanks to a natural decades-long cycle in hurricane activity called the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).

2) There will either be an El Niño event or neutral conditions in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific. An El Niño event should act to reduce Atlantic hurricane activity. However, our skill at predicting an Niño in late May/early June is poor, so there is high uncertainty about how active the coming hurricane season will be.

3) Cooler-than-average SSTs are currently present in the eastern tropical Atlantic. These cool SSTs are forecast to persist through into August-September-October (ASO). ASO SSTs in the eastern tropical Atlantic have not been below average since 1997. Cooler SSTs in that region are typically associated with a reduction in Atlantic hurricane activity.

Thus, they expect that even though we are in an active hurricane period, the presence of an El Niño or cool SSTs in the eastern Atlantic could easily suppress activity, making a near-average season the most likely possibility. They note that two promising computer models, the NOAA CFS model and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Global Climate Model System 3, both forecast the possibility of a below-average hurricane season.

2009 Atlantic hurricane season forecast from Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.
The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) has joined the ranks of NOAA and Colorado State University in calling for near-average activity. The latest TSR forecast issued June 4 calls for 10.9 named storms, 5.2 hurricanes, 2.2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 72% of average. The storm numbers are close to the 50-year average of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, and are sharp reduction from their April forecast of 15 named storms, 7.8 hurricanes, and 3.6 intense hurricanes. TSR predicts a 50% chance that this season will be in the bottom 1/3 of years historically, and a 40% chance that U.S. landfalling activity will be in the lowest 1/3 of years historically. TSR gives a 32% chance of a near-normal season, and a 17% chance of a below normal season. TSR rates their skill level as 26% above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 15% skill for hurricanes, and 19% skill for intense hurricanes.

TSR projects that 3.2 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.3 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2008 climatology are 3.2 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. Their skill in making these April forecasts for U.S. landfalls is 7 - 18% above chance. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 0.9 named storms, 0.4 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR cites two main factors for their reduced forecast: a large and unexpected cooling of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, and warmer SSTs in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific (which might lead to an El Niño event that will bring high wind shear to the Atlantic). TSR expects faster than than normal trade winds from July - September over the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes over the Atlantic (the region between 10° - 20° N from Central America to Africa, including all of the Caribbean). Trade winds are forecast to be 0.83 meters per second (about 1.7 mph) faster than average in this region, which would create less spin for developing storms, and allow the oceans to cool down, due to increased mixing of cold water from the depths and enhanced evaporational cooling. TSR forecasts that SSTs will cool an additional 0.3°C compared to average over the MDR during hurricane season.

Air France crash
The Air France Flight 447 A330 aircraft that disappeared over the mid-Atlantic Ocean yesterday definitely crossed through a thunderstorm complex near the Equator, according to a detailed meteorological analysis by Tim Vasquez. He concludes that "the A330 would have been flying through significant turbulence and thunderstorm activity for about 75 miles (125 km), lasting about 12 minutes of flight time" but that "complexes identical to this one have probably been crossed hundreds of times over the years by other flights without serious incident". See also the excellent CIMSS satellite blog for more images and analysis of the weather during the flight.

Invest 92
NHC is tracking a storm near the Azores Islands (Invest 92L) that is probably the remnants of the core of an extratropical cyclone that closed off some warm air at the center. The system has developed some heavy thunderstorm activity near its center, making this a hybrid storm. However, with ocean temperatures near 62°F (16°C), this storm has little chance of becoming a named subtropical storm.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. Ossqss
How often during formal season do we have absolutely nothing on the global scale in terms of tropical activity?

It is so slow that singularity thing may pop back up on this blog. Yikes !
Keeper how cool :) And thanks for the heads up on Barometer Bob the other day.
Those were interesting facts about the Georgia hurricanes.

I wasnt sure how often Georgia encountered tropical weather. I was surprised when I read about Alma's track going through Georgia in 1966. I went through Georgia in 1966.I was born in Columbus,Georgia in 1966. And like the good little Army brat I am I lived there a whole six weeks. LOL

I know. I know. Representing the old folk here.

Then this afternoon I saw It Could Happen Tomorrow about a Cat 4 hitting Savannah. Chilling prospect. The officials were worried most about complacency. Yikes!

Perfect example of why you should have a plan no matter how long its been.
1004. hydrus
I was in moore haven when david hit,no eye there, but wind squalls and high water were impressive.
A Cat 4 hitting Savannah would not be that bad. For one thing, Savannah is about 20 miles inland. For another, downtown and the old city are about 50 feet above sea level on a bluff. q.v.

Note the bluff and the sailing ships below the bluff:

1006. aquak9
David...I was 15, in marching band camp in high school. Got in LOTS of trouble with the band director, cause I kept watching the clouds, instead of him.

Seems like ages ago...I guess it was.
I was 10 :) This is Rich :) Mike was up in Toccoa, he was 13.
# Daniel Swain Says:
June 3rd, 2009 at 3:43 pm

Confirmed golf ball sized hail near Willow Creek about 20 minutes ago. Storms may become much more widespread across NorCal late this evening as a shortwave moves up from the south. CAPEs over the Valley are incredible–nearly 3000 J/Kg. We just need a trigger–even a very small one–and it looks like we may get it between 6 and 9 PM. Stay tuned…also some strong storms in coastal SoCal. I expect to have an update later this evening.



caps here are 3,000J/kg thats un here of out here
1009. aquak9
Funny, even at that young age, nothing more than 3 channels on the tv...(no cable, no remote controls) still some of us were addicted to the weather.
Good ole George Winterling :) The one and only TV 4!
This is a larger version of the Savannah image, from March 29, 1734 Link
1012. Levi32
During David I was....minus-12 years old lol.
1013. aquak9
yes...George Winterling. Earned his fame by being the only met to call Dora as a northern St.Augustine landfall, instead of a Daytona landfall, like everyone else.

He was my icon. I lived for his weather reports.
I thought you were 32 levi :)
1015. aquak9
oh hush Levi! You're gonna make me hafta whop ya upside the head with my walker!
989. Patrap 12:50 AM GMT on June 04, 2009
Political Motives are a non issue in Forecasting.

To say they are is Ludicrous.

If you have issue with the NHC ,..they have a E-mail address. They are the Official Word here ALWAYS.

To demean the folks there without merit or fact does a Dis-service to the General Public at Large.
--------
i would have to disagree with you Pat. for many years, the NWS REFUSED to even use the word "tornado", as they thought it would cause unnessessary harm.

also, the NWS in the early part of the 1900s refused to use the word "hurricane" in official weather reports. read the book "isaac's storm" (a retelling of the great galvaston hurricane) and you will get a clear picture on how the NWS used to PURPOSELY surpress information.

with the advent of satelites and internet where anyone can check on the weather at any time, the NWS and the NHC cant pull this stunt as much. but they still do things based on political reasons many times.
1018. Levi32
Quoting aquak9:
oh hush Levi! You're gonna make me hafta whop ya upside the head with my walker!


Lol believe me I need it ;)
Pretty impressive MJO pulse coming.
1020. Levi32
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


During David I was -3. Wasnt even a thought yet.


I was even less of a thought than you were =P
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Levi I thought that too, but there are no reports of hurricane winds or winds close to hurricane force on the SC side of the track either.


I was 10 during David, and the west side of the eye went over us. Home barometer reached 28.66"

Winds were never above the 40-45 mph range, and were distinctly stronger after the eye passed.
Though David was not much of a wind event, my car was totaled because of water. It was as if the hospital where I worked was an island. People were paddling to the hospital in canoes to get in a dry building. Could not see anything but water from the door - would not have wanted to guess where the river edge began ;)

I bet we'll here this from the NHC sometime this year.. They'll deff be naming less storms this year just to get the prediction right

WE HAVE FOUND WINDS OF 80 MPH WITH AN EYE LIKE FEATURE IN THE STORM. HOWEVER THE STORM IS NON-TROPICAL IN NATURE AND DEVELOPMENT IF ANY WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LESS THEN 30% CHANCE.
1023. vortfix
I was a lot older than any of you...where's my walker Aqua??

Quoting Levi32:


I was even less of a thought than you were =P


LOL...
Quoting reedzone:
I bet we'll here this from the NHC sometime this year.. They'll deff be naming less storms this year just to get the prediction right

WE HAVE FOUND WINDS OF 80 MPH WITH AN EYE LIKE FEATURE IN THE STORM. HOWEVER THE STORM IS NON-TROPICAL IN NATURE AND DEVELOPMENT IF ANY WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LESS THEN 30% CHANCE.


lol, I second that. Obviously NOAA hasn't been the best in recent forecasts so why not help their cause a little bit and just declare things "non tropical"
Floridafisherman, that is just not true! Here is every weather map produced from 1871 to 2002, over 48,000 maps. And hurricanes are mentioned all the time in the old maps!

Link
1027. Patrap
1022. reedzone

The NHC dosent make Predictions ,er..sports fans.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
A Cat 4 hitting Savannah would not be that bad. For one thing, Savannah is about 20 miles inland. For another, downtown and the old city are about 50 feet above sea level on a bluff. q.v.

Note the bluff and the sailing ships below the bluff:



Yes they said that about the old town surviving. I think they were talking about everyone else around there. How there is a long shallow shelf extending out and the water would pile up on it. And 20 miles inland, water or no water, a cat 4's winds would just about tear up all but the strongest homes. Not to mention all those beautiful old trees. I don't know looked pretty scary.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Pretty impressive MJO pulse coming.



that sould get things going vary fast
Quoting Patrap:
The NHC dosent make Predictions ,er..sport.


Thats right. Its more of a somewhat educated guess.
Sorry, thought I could add a bit of humor to the blog.. guess instead, I upset some people, I apologize. It was a joke...
Quoting reedzone:
I bet we'll here this from the NHC sometime this year.. They'll deff be naming less storms this year just to get the prediction right

WE HAVE FOUND WINDS OF 80 MPH WITH AN EYE LIKE FEATURE IN THE STORM. HOWEVER THE STORM IS NON-TROPICAL IN NATURE AND DEVELOPMENT IF ANY WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LESS THEN 30% CHANCE.


that would be a valid reason to not declare..
Now if they said this.
RECON INDICATES THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN HAS AQURIED A CLOSE CIRCULATION AND WITH 60 MPH WINDS, HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM IS CLOSE TO LANDFALL AND DEVELOPMENT..IF ANY.. WILL BE SLOW TO ACCOUR. THERE IS A LESS THEN 30% CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM OR A HURRICANE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Then I will be upset. But the NHC has every right to say a system isn't a system when, it isn't a system!
1033. aquak9
You're in the electric wheelchair, Vort. I'm using your old walker now.
1034. Drakoen
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Pretty impressive MJO pulse coming.


Very. But you have to keep in mind that the EWP is more of a statistical predictor of MJO rather than a dynamical predictor.
Quoting Tazmanian:



that sould get things going vary fast


Yeah it'll be interesting to see if something forms while the pulse is occurring.
I am still amazed that some people believe the NHC decides to name or not name something so they can "hit their numbers". The idea is laughable. Can you really see them sitting there doing that? Doing so would put their careers and the whole NHC at jeopardy.
Quoting reedzone:
Sorry, thought I could add a bit of humor to the blog.. guess instead, I upset some people, I apologize.


No ones upset at all. Prediction just sounds like the NHC is some kind of fortune teller. lol
Quote from the August 26, 1893 8 am map:

"the hurricane center has moved towards southern Florida and is now near Nassau"

"the track of the hurricane approaching Florida will probably keep to the west of the two preceding tracks, and bring more rain to the interior of the Atlantic states."

Link
1039. Levi32
Yup and the MJO pulse comes in also right around the time the low forms in the Caribbean. It may have a decent chance, but it's still a bit far away to start drawing conclusions.
1040. aquak9
I thought it was funny, reed.

Wonder if there's any correlation between liberal use of names vs. conservative use of names, depending on what's in the WhiteHouse.
1041. Makoto1
1040- Tropical Storm Ana.. Coultier?
Quoting CaneWarning:
I am still amazed that some people believe the NHC decides to name or not name something so they can "hit their numbers". The idea is laughable. Can you really see them sitting there doing that? Doing so would put their careers and the whole NHC at jeopardy.


lol they are the upmost Hurricane Authority, sorry weather channel your second. But I am curious why 90L was not at least a TD at landfall. And 92L was subtropical but obviously a better case on not naming it.
Quoting Drakoen:


Very. But you have to keep in mind that the EWP is more of a statistical predictor of MJO rather than a dynamical predictor.


Yeah definitely gotta keep that in mind. The GFS and CFS have a much less impressive MJO phase coming through compared to the EWP.
Quoting aquak9:
I thought it was funny, reed.

Wonder if there's any correlation between liberal use of names vs. conservative use of names, depending on what's in the WhiteHouse.


I don't see one. 1995 was under Clinton, 2000 was under Clinton, 2006 was under Bush.
The following link, page 2

Link


8 pm map August 26, 1893

"the hurricane center will probably strike the coast of the South Atlantic states on Sunday, pass inward, and break up into general rains on Monday"

You see this with the hurricanes of the time, to say that the weather bureau was surpressing knowledge of hurricanes threatening the coast and refusing to call them what they were is false and absurd.
1046. Patrap
Once again,,the NHC does not issue a Numbered Seasonal Tropical Forecast.

NHC Mission Statement

The NHC mission statement is to save lives, mitigate property loss, and improve economic efficiency by issuing the best watches, warnings, forecasts and analyses of hazardous tropical weather, and by increasing understanding of these hazards. It is important for you to pay attention when you hear alerts, watches, and warnings provided by this official hurricane organization. By listening to information given and the official National Hurricane Center concern behind it, you will be able to make education decisions on preparing for a hurricane, preventative damage, and protecting your family.

It took the NHC years before they made Andrew a Cat 5...and it went right over them!!!!!
Here is what I am talking about:

Link
I disagree with making Andrew a cat 5. To be the ultimate, a Cat 5, a hurricane should meet ALL of the qualifications, including pressure. Not just wind.
Quoting TampaFLUSA:
It took the NHC years before they made Andrew a Cat 5...and it went right over them!!!!!


I always wonder why they did that. I lived Andrew, but what point is it changing it years after the storm?
Interesting.

SAL has lessened quite a bit.

1052. Levi32
Quoting Patrap:
Once again,,the NHC does not issue a Numbered Seasonal Tropical Forecast.

NHC Mission Statement

The NHC mission statement is to save lives, mitigate property loss, and improve economic efficiency by issuing the best watches, warnings, forecasts and analyses of hazardous tropical weather, and by increasing understanding of these hazards. It is important for you to pay attention when you hear alerts, watches, and warnings provided by this official hurricane organization. By listening to information given and the official National Hurricane Center concern behind it, you will be able to make education decisions on preparing for a hurricane, preventative damage, and protecting your family.



Yeah....


NOAA: 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
Issued: 21 May 2009

"The 2009 Atlantic hurricane season outlook is an official product of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), and is produced in collaboration with scientists from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and Hurricane Research Division (HRD). The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico"
1053. aquak9
I read isaac's storm, the black cloud too....I think it's just the author's way of throwing a little conspiracy-spin into the story....certainly the NWS did not purposely want lives to be lost, but both books did tend to push that theory a little bit.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I disagree with making Andrew a cat 5. To be the ultimate, a Cat 5, a hurricane should meet ALL of the qualifications, including pressure. Not just wind.


I have to agree with you about Andrew not being a Category 5 at landfall. I know Adrian will slap me upside the head for saying that though...
NHC is just the NHC. They are just let us. People who love tracking tropical weather. When a blob pops up, it is labeled an Invest before you can even blink your eye.
Aquak check out the map from September 6, 1900 on my link. WORST. FORECAST. EVER!
1058. Patrap
Like I said Padawan,the NHC dosent issue a Numbered Seasonal Forecast.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I disagree with making Andrew a cat 5. To be the ultimate, a Cat 5, a hurricane should meet ALL of the qualifications, including pressure. Not just wind.


My understanding is that the lowest pressure found was 922 mb. From what I have found they say a Cat 5 is 920 mb and under. That's not far off, and in reality, the pressure was probably lower and just not recorded due to instrument failure.
1061. Patrap
Impacts counts,not any Man Made scale of Numbers.

Especially the SS scale.
Its a People Buisness,not a FACT buisness.

The numbers come with the territory,but at the end of the day,and beginning. Its all about saving Lives and protecting property and economic interests.
Actually from what I understand, the pressure was believed to be 932 mb at the homestead landfall, and the pressure was recorded as being lower when several readings in the 922-925 mb range were reported from home barometers in the eye and the barometers inspected
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I disagree with making Andrew a cat 5. To be the ultimate, a Cat 5, a hurricane should meet ALL of the qualifications, including pressure. Not just wind.

The lowest I belive was 922 3mil off...and didn't the hurricanes Hunters stop flying into the hurricane just before landfall as it was still intensifying....nether the less it shows that the saffir simpson scale should be modified....
1064. Levi32
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I disagree with making Andrew a cat 5. To be the ultimate, a Cat 5, a hurricane should meet ALL of the qualifications, including pressure. Not just wind.


In a perfect world you would be right, but the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is only for wind, not pressure. Andrew was a very small hurricane, and therefore very compact. That made the isobars closer together than a typical hurricane of his central pressure, and therefore the wind was higher than it normally would be. The reverse is true with very large spread-out storms, the wind will be lower relative to the central pressure of the storm.
1066. Makoto1
Quoting Patrap:
Impacts counts,not any Man Made scale of Numbers.

Especially the SS scale.
Its a People Buisness,not a FACT buisness.

The numbers come with the territory,but at the end of the day,and beginning. Its all about saving Lives and protecting property and economic interests.


I couldn't have said it better myself.

Look at Ike, it was absolutely devastating, and yet it was only a Category 2. The category doesn't always show the level of destruction, that's for sure.
In case anyone is interested in reading the analysis behind the upgrade of Andrew to a Cat 5, here is the Link
GFS mean precip column shows a large increase over the Caribbean.

For that matter, I don't consider Katrina as having been a Cat 3. Even the official report says that Cat 4 winds were impacting the Mississippi delta as the eye approached. Pressure was low enough, the winds ashore strong enough, the damage bad enough, and doggone it it's not enough!
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Actually from what I understand, the pressure was believed to be 932 mb at the homestead landfall, and the pressure was recorded as being lower when several readings in the 922-925 mb range were reported from home barometers in the eye and the barometers inspected


You are right, the 922 came from a home I believe.
Quoting MrstormX:
Here is what I am talking about:

Link

This is definitely worth looking into...
The Caribbean storm may very well be the most intresting thing we will see for weeks, lets just hope its not the next Ana
Good evening all! Any new model output available as of yet in reference to our futuristic Carribean ghost storm?
1074. Patrap

The Damage Swath NOAA Map

This one is 3 Hours Driving time from East to west..and vice versa
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


I have to agree with you about Andrew not being a Category 5 at landfall. I know Adrian will slap me upside the head for saying that though...


Say that in the face of 150-165mph winds

I share THIS with you
Quoting TampaFLUSA:

The is definitely worth looking into...


The pressure drop is the best evidence of all
1077. Patrap
IKE NOAA IMAGE Map

Impact counts,not anyone's Belief nor SS numbers
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I disagree with making Andrew a cat 5. To be the ultimate, a Cat 5, a hurricane should meet ALL of the qualifications, including pressure. Not just wind.


Well if you don't think Andrew was a cat 5 at landfall. What would you say it was? A cat 4?
And if Andrew was only a cat 4 at landfall, and seeing the damage he did, how could you possibly say a cat 4 hitting anywhere wouldn't be that bad? I don't know how much damage you've seen first hand but a cat 4 would be devestating ANYWHERE!

But I guess we are lucky to have people at the NHC who know what theyre doing. So they can warn the public in times of danger. So the public wouldnt have to get their information from people who say a cat 4 wouldnt be that bad.

Just my humble opinion.
Quoting MrstormX:


The pressure drop is the best evidence of all


90L:
Impressive winds for an invest



1026...

here is the official NWS report for galvaston texas sat sept 8th (from the weather headquarters in washington) rain saturday, with high northerly winds, sunday rain followed by clearing.

NO mention of a hurricane or even a cyclone at all. and yet, that very weekend, the city was nearly wiped off the earth from one. funny how the cuban meteorologist father gangoite of the belen observatory knew about the hurricane and even the direction it was headed in.

but this information was surpressed by the nws as the felt the cubans had no understanding of the mechanics of the weather (which we now know is false).
Quoting hurricane23:


Say that in the face of 150-165mph winds

I share THIS with you


Well I have no say in the upgrade of Andrew becuase at the time I was in West Palm enjoying cloudy sky's with 40 mph winds while you guys experienced 150+mph winds. I am neutral in the discussion.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


90L:






This was definetly a Tropical Storm with winds sustained at 50 mph, and gust at 65 mph.
by the way wind speed is the ONLY thing the NHC counts now pressure ranges were phased out of the S-S scale. As long as it makes it to TS status than wind is the only thing that counts.
Part of the final Andrew Report...
The final offshore "fix" by the reconnaissance aircraft came at 0804 UTC and placed the center of the hurricane only about 15 nautical miles, or roughly one hour of travel time, from the mainland. A dropsonde indicated a pressure of 932 mb at that time.
Based on the observations and an eastward extrapolation of the pressure pattern to the coastline, Andrew's minimum pressure at landfall is estimated to be 922 mb. This suggests that the trajectory of the dropsonde deployed from the aircraft did not intersect the lowest pressure within the eye.


This was probably taken at about the time my parents house was losing its roof.
1088. Levi32
Quoting Vortex95:
by the way wind speed is the ONLY thing the NHC counts now pressure ranges were phased out of the S-S scale. As long as it makes it to TS status than wind is the only thing that counts.


Well it makes sense because the central pressure of the storm in and of itself does not affect the people in its path. The wind, the rain, and the storm surge do. However I think it would be prudent if the NHC considered the central pressure when estimating the maximum winds, even when the recon can't find them.
1089. gator23
Hi all! I have been reading some of your comments about the whole Andrew debate. I think what is happening here is that while many people believe they have seen hurricane force winds most people havent seen anything past tropical storm force winds, so that when they actually get hurricane force winds they are "surprised"
1090. Patrap
All Obs are relative ones.
One person dosent see the same effects from a System as another in a Different Locale.

Camille had a Official Wind Sustained at 212 from Keesler AFB in 69. But Butch Loper and others from Miss,emg mgrs and others know that at the Seabee Base in Long Beach,Miss a Sustained Wind of 231mph was recorded but not officially.


Einstein had it right a long time ago. EVERYTHING is relative to a single observer.
Always.
So Andrew had an hour before it hit land from the last "fix"...we remember how fast Charley strengthened bf landfall...
Well Considering Andrew was the 4th most Intense Atlantic Cane at landfall on record then it is no suprise it was bumped to Cat 5.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Interesting.

SAL has lessened quite a bit.





LOL try all most gone
RE: Cat4 vs Cat5
With any hurricane that is devastating - where you live - it seems as if the storm should be recognized for it's full fury.
Folks effected by Andrew, saw the results of that fury first hand.
There are many along the SC coast, who feel that Hugo was under reported in terms of intensity

However, those of us who lived in Charleston when Hugo hit, know that if Hugo is what a Cat4 can do - we do not want to be anywhere within a hundred miles of a Cat5

Upgrading a borderline Cat4 to a Cat5, does not (IMHO), better prepare the public. (Goes for any borderline category storm)

EDITED: for clarity
All this discussion about categories is an explicit example of why the NHC will be approaching the saffir - simpson scale differently this year. They will use the experimental Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale this year. This scale removes the mention of minimum central pressure, and storm surge ranges, so that public confusion is reduced.
Quoting gator23:
Hi all! I have been reading some of your comments about the whole Andrew debate. I think what is happening here is that while many people believe they have seen hurricane force winds most people havent seen anything past tropical storm force winds, so that when they actually get hurricane force winds they are "surprised"

True, but we are talking about the anemometers that failed at 165mph 175mph and so on...
Didnt realize someone else posted abour the change in the saffir simpson scale. :)
Quoting TampaFLUSA:

True, but we are talking about the anemometers that failed at 165mph 175mph and so on...


The NHC itself recorded a gust to 164 mph before its equipment failed. Other areas had gusts over 175 mph.
00z should be interesting.
1101. gator23
Quoting TampaFLUSA:

True, but we are talking about the anemometers that failed at 165mph 175mph and so on...


I agree I went through Andrew that is why I sometimes go crazy when I hear people who went through other storms say "Hurricanes arnt that bad."
Some say Ike should have been a cat. 3 at landfall, but personally keeping it at a cat 2 should help the public realize the storm doesn't have to be a major hurricane to cause damage.
Quoting gator23:


I agree I went through Andrew that is why I sometimes go crazy when I hear people who went through other storms say "Hurricanes arnt that bad."

What 9 ppl (?) died in Florida bc they thought Katrina was just a Cat 1 and blew it off...people don't realize all it takes is that falling tree....
1104. Patrap
Lightning Warns of Hurricanes' Most Intense Moments

Convection Connection

The search for a connection between lightning and hurricane intensity stems from research done in the 1990s. Scientists found that storms intensify over warm waters due to greater vertical convection%u2014the upward movement of heat.

"Somehow the convection of these thunderstorms within the hurricane seems to organize the hurricane better and improve its rotation," Price said.


Related articles
Homestead Air Force Base peak wind gusts were likely near 200-mph.The lowest barometric pressure recorded on land in Andrew was 27.25 inches (923 mb) in Homestead. Only three other tropical cyclones have had a landfalling barometric pressure lower than hurricane Andrew in the United States - the Florida Keys Hurricane (1935), Hurricane Camille (1969), and Hurricane Katrina 05.
I'm a little confused about something:
(the following is from the NHC's may 2009 outlook for this hurricane season)
"we estimate a 70% probability for each of the following seasonal ranges:

9-14 Named Storms,
4-7 Hurricanes
1-3 Major Hurricanes,
An ACE range of 65%-130% of the median ."
So if they dont issue a numerical "scientific best guess", what would this be considered? Just a little confused.
from the link you supplied st.simons

this is the forcast for texas the day a cat 4 hurricane was going to hit:

north to east winds, probably high on the coast.

the weather map also has no indictation of a hurricane. they do have a low pressure system sitting off the gulf coast, but NOT A SINGLE mention of cyclone, hurricane, or any other word the NWS deemed inappropiate at the time.
129 people died from cat. 1 Agnes
1109. Makoto1
Same thing happened here when the extratropical Ike sent strong winds here in Ohio. No one realizes that it just takes something falling on you can kill you. That's the biggest reason I stayed inside for that whole thing.
Canewarning where were you in that image in comment 1087?
I think we should already have been to Claudette.

90L should have been Ana, TD 1 should have been Bill, and 92L should have been Claudette.

While it's just my opinion, they all at one point were a TS...or a STS in 92L's case.
1112. Levi32
"Somehow the convection of these thunderstorms within the hurricane seems to organize the hurricane better and improve its rotation," Price said.

Not sure why he said it as if we don't already know why that happens.
1113. gator23
Quoting TampaFLUSA:

What 9 ppl (?) died in Florida bc they thought Katrina was just a Cat 1 and blew it off...people don't realize all it takes is that falling tree....
Quoting TampaFLUSA:

What 9 ppl (?) died in Florida bc they thought Katrina was just a Cat 1 and blew it off...people don't realize all it takes is that falling tree....


yep, it was 14 deaths
Quoting weatherblog:
I think we should already have been to Claudette.

90L should have been Ana, TD 1 should have been Bill, and 92L should have been Claudette.

While it's just my opinion, they all at one point were a TS.


90L should have been Ana
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Canewarning where were you in that image in comment 1087?


Just west of the "S" in U.S. 1 north of HAFB.
1116. Levi32
Quoting cjswilmingtoneye:
I'm a little confused about something:
(the following is from the NHC's may 2009 outlook for this hurricane season)
"we estimate a 70% probability for each of the following seasonal ranges:

9-14 Named Storms,
4-7 Hurricanes
1-3 Major Hurricanes,
An ACE range of 65%-130% of the median ."
So if they dont issue a numerical "scientific best guess", what would this be considered? Just a little confused.


It's the same thing as the official forecast issued by NOAA. I just dislike the broad probabilities and number ranges.
1117. Patrap
Quoting cjswilmingtoneye:
I'm a little confused about something:
(the following is from the NHC's may 2009 outlook for this hurricane season)
"we estimate a 70% probability for each of the following seasonal ranges:

9-14 Named Storms,
4-7 Hurricanes
1-3 Major Hurricanes,
An ACE range of 65%-130% of the median ."
So if they dont issue a numerical "scientific best guess", what would this be considered? Just a little confused.


NOAA issues that,not the NHC



NOAA: 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

Issued: 21 May 2009


Interpretation of NOAA's Atlantic seasonal hurricane outlook
This outlook provides a general guide to the expected overall nature of the upcoming hurricane season. This outlook is not a seasonal hurricane landfall forecast, and it does not imply levels of activity for any particular region.
1118. Patrap
Only the Narrow minded belays the word..LOL
1119. Patrap
A lil more in-depth on the Subject matter sports fans.


NASA Finds Intense Lightning Activity Around a Hurricane's Eye

June 23, 2006



When you think of lightning, you think of a thunderstorm. Many people also assume that hurricanes have a lot of lightning because they are made up of hundreds of thunderstorms.

However, according to Dr. Richard Blakeslee of the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) in Huntsville, Ala., "Generally there's not a lot of lightning in the hurricane eye-wall region. So when people detect a lot of lightning in a hurricane, they perk up -- they say, okay, something's happening."

In 2005, scientists did perk up, because a very strong Hurricane Emily had some of the most lightning activity ever seen in a hurricane. Scientists are now trying to determine if the frequency of lightning is connected to the hurricane's strength.

In July of that year, NASA lightning researchers joined hurricane specialists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and 10 universities for a month-long Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes (TCSP) field experiment in Costa Rica. The purpose of the mission was to determine what weather, climate and other factors that helped create tropical storms and hurricanes. They also wanted to learn about what makes these storms strengthen. All of these organizations study lightning in hurricanes to get a better understanding of the strengthening or weakening (intensification) of the storms.
What an exciting night. Just watched with my kids a combination of the Rays and Jeff Niemann blow out the Royals and Home Alone 2 for the 43rd time.

Looks like a couple of wet days here on the west coast of FL.
Quoting Patrap:


NOAA issues that,not the NHC



NOAA: 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

Issued: 21 May 2009

Right. But NHC does contribute to it, along with the HRD.
"The 2009 Atlantic hurricane season outlook is an official product of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), and is produced in collaboration with scientists from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and Hurricane Research Division (HRD)."
Just saying that the idea that at some point their could be political actions at play there(NHC) aren't so far fetched. I believe they do the best job they can do, and am very thankful for the watches/warnings. Especially, having been a victim of the floods of Hurricane Floyd(1999), and the destructive winds of Hurricane Fran(1996). But, by no means are they perfect. Especially when you consider the fact that 90 L was definatley a Tropical Storm at landfall. It just was, all evidence supports this conclusion. The unnamed storm that passed over the Albemarle and Pamlico sounds in North Carolin in 2006 is another perfect example. These were probably not politcally motivated moves, but the NHC can and probably will make more mistakes they aren't perfect.
Quoting clwstmchasr:
What an exciting night. Just watched with my kids a combination of the Rays and Jeff Niemann blow out the Royals and Home Alone 2 for the 43rd time.

Looks like a couple of wet days here on the west coast of FL.


Lets hope that Caribbean storm doesn't dump to much on you guys.
Canewarning, YIKES!
Quoting cjswilmingtoneye:
I'm a little confused about something:
(the following is from the NHC's may 2009 outlook for this hurricane season)
"we estimate a 70% probability for each of the following seasonal ranges:

9-14 Named Storms,
4-7 Hurricanes
1-3 Major Hurricanes,
An ACE range of 65%-130% of the median ."
So if they dont issue a numerical "scientific best guess", what would this be considered? Just a little confused.


Fact IS nobody really knows, its just a scientific guess based on the same/similiar weather patterns and realistically speaking they could change on a dime.
1125. 7544
this is getting iteresting the new run
Link
1126. Ossqss
It is interesting to view TWC talk, just now, of the plane crash and showed there was no lighting near the site of trouble. They say it more than likely did not happen via two services that track it. Wow.

Without lightning, the chance of it being a terror strike grow significantly. Just my take.
st simon....

i find it wierd that the NWS decieded to place a track for the galvaston hurricane AFTER it already hit land (as shown on sep 9th 1900). yet that exact same track, which could have possibly saved ppls lives, is missing from the forcast on the 7th or 8th.

is it possible that the NWS put the track in AFTER THE FACT just to cover their a$$es? and from all research i have done, storm warning were not issued in galvaston until only a few hours before landfall. not a very good forecast considering a cat 4 is barreling down on them. but then again, the NWS did say strong winds POSSIBLE, thus coving their a$$es once again.
1128. Levi32
Quoting Ossqss:
It is interesting to view TWC talk, just now, of the plane crash and showed there was no lighting near the site of trouble. They say it more than likely did not happen via two services that track it. Wow.

Without lightning, the chance of it being a terror strike grow significantly. Just my take.


Hard to believe there could there be no lightning in that:

1129. gator23
Quoting 7544:
this is getting iteresting the new run
Link


at 114 hours I would not put to much stock in the forcast models
1130. Ossqss
Quoting Levi32:


Hard to believe there could there be no lightning in that:



I don't disagree, but that is what they just presented on TWC with the main man.

If you have a start over option, use it and see for your self. I was surprised ...
Quoting stormpetrol:


Fact IS nobody really knows, its just a scientific guess based on the same/similiar weather patterns and realistically speaking they could change on a dime.

I strongly agree. Im not saying they are wrong or right. Just sayin that they do issue numbers(noaa/cpc/hrd/nhc) just like everyone else. Except, they do it with a spin, and put a range out there. Either way the use of a number is involved. LOL
at 114 hours I would not put to much stock in the forcast models


Agreed. It will start to get my attention if the runs continue this time tomorrow night.
love reading the discussions here. taking a break for the night. Have a good one everyone
Its incredible how powerfull yet small andrew was. Being in north east dade we got hurricane force winds but they were not as strong as Wilmas!!! to this day I still find that Amazing. In andrew we had a lot of branches down and tile damage but from wilma at least 6 large trees in my area were topped. I believe Andrew gave us 75-80 mph winds Wilma at peak was around 85-90 and gusting well over 100 mph since it was moving so fast. Although it was a tad bit stronger its gusts were what made it so damaging although andrew was a fast mover as well.
1135. Patrap


There is No evidence of a Terror strike on the Air France Aircraft,no one has claimed responsiblity as that is always a Drum beater.



Updrafts and Downdrafts are more Likely to Have overwhelmed the Aero Surfaces and the Flight Control systems which did fail and well,thats a Bad way to Fly.
That and the inability of the Flight Crew to have adequate time to report Verbally a problem,point to a in-flight break up.

A lot will hinge on weather they can retrieve the CVR and FDR.
Until then,..all we have are maintence records and the Digitally sent data from the Flight.


Which was more than first reported.
Early start to the season for FL?
1137. gator23
Quoting cjswilmingtoneye:

I strongly agree.


As i tell everyone, it only takes 1.
Quoting 7544:
this is getting iteresting the new run
Link


The GFS has an obsession with turning the normal columbian low into something tropical. Every few weeks, it spins it up and moves it north on runs about 7-10 days out. And every time, it drops it after a few runs.
Quoting naplesdreamer28:
Early start to the season for FL?


Maybe we will have to see.
It's interesting all the comments on Hurricane Andrew. Having lived in Homestead at the time, I always thought that Andrew was a 4 but that there were so many tornados within this storm that it was easy to assume it was a cat five.

The damange was so extensive, but in certain parts of Homestead it just looked like a bomb went off.

It's funny how your mind can remember stuff so vivid after the fact. I worked at Homestead Air Force base and on late Friday afternoon I walked over to the Customs Air Branch to check on the weather. We were planning to go boating...trust me when I say NO ONE was worried about any hurricane. It was not until the next morning on Saturday that the alarm was sounded.

To this day, I don't know how thousands and thousands of people did not die in this storm.

I had thought that the equipment had broken at 180 MPH on the base? I went onto the base a couple of weeks after the storm, to "try" and salvage anything of value in our offices....( confidential papers) but I am sure most people know this was an attempt that was just not possible.

I personally will never forget the majority of my friends who had to run from room to room, as there roofs were being torn off with tiny children. I thank God I stayed with my parents in Kendall!

One block from my parents home, Wayside Baptist Church's entire side of the church was gone....a tornado. I was stunned....until I drove into Homestead days later.
Well the 1900 Galveston hurricane forecast was horrible. But the weather bureau got the 1893 Sea Islands hurricane spot on more than 36 hours before landfall--in fact the forecast error for that particular storm was lower than the average error today.
GFS sometimes generates convective feedback issues out the wazoo.
Someone remarked way, way earlier probably between comments 700-900 that something may go on off of the carolinas' in a day or two can we find any indication of that?
1145. Levi32
Quoting jeffs713:


The GFS has an obsession with turning the normal columbian low into something tropical. Every few weeks, it spins it up and moves it north on runs about 7-10 days out. And every time, it drops it after a few runs.


That's true, but this time we have a trough split dipping into the NW Caribbean and a tropical wave moving in as well. That's a good trigger right there.
well if this is to come to fruition in the next 48 hours we should start to see a tropical disturbance in the carribean at least begining to combine some thunderstorms. If this thing is 6 days away from hitting cuba then something should start soon. If the GFS starts pushing back then I disregard it totally although Im not putting much into these runs either.
Quoting MrstormX:
Someone remarked way, way earlier probably between comments 700-900 that something may go on off of the carolinas' in a day or two can we find any indication of that?


Okay post 848
For a lay person who knows nothing about flying.....I am amazed that a state of the art airplane that was less than four years old could be destroyed in the air.......I just don't understand it :(
1150. Patrap
The next storm
As a new hurricane season begins, lessons learned can help keep us safe


Copyright 2009 Houston Chronicle
May 30, 2009, 3:29PM

With the ravages of Hurricane Ike still all too apparent along the upper Texas coast, another hurricane season is upon us. Showing nature’s disregard for the man-made meteorological calendar for a third straight year, the first tropical system of 2009 has already popped up in the Atlantic off the East Coast and then swiftly dissipated.

No two storm cycles are alike, so no one knows if the coming months will be as cruel to Southeast Texas residents as 2008, the second most destructive season on record for the U.S. with $54 billion in losses. Only 2005, the season that included Katrina’s catastrophic flooding of New Orleans and Rita’s strike on the Texas-Louisiana border, was worse, with $128 billion in damages.

In the last four years Lone Star emergency management officials have learned some valuable lessons. After the chaotic and deadly flight from Rita jammed area freeways, the carefully staged evacuations prior to Ike went smoothly, and people outside flood zones mostly heeded directives to remain in their homes.

For those away from the coast, the major hardship incurred during Ike was widespread power failures that lasted weeks in some areas. CenterPoint Energy spokesman Floyd LeBlanc calls the hurricane “a category tree storm” because most of the outages resulted from trees outside the utility right of ways falling onto power lines. Since the storm, CenterPoint has been removing trees damaged during the hurricane, as well as getting permission from home-owners to cut down trees on their property that might pose a threat.

Despite those improvements, Le-Blanc says Houstonians should keep in mind that if a major hurricane strikes, they can expect loss of power for weeks. Standard supplies to put on the shelf this season include batteries for flashlights, radios and cordless TVs, bottled water and generators. Keep in mind that generators should always be placed in well-ventilated areas outside the home to prevent accumulation of dangerous carbon monoxide fumes.

1151. Levi32
Quoting MrstormX:
Someone remarked way, way earlier probably between comments 700-900 that something may go on off of the carolinas' in a day or two can we find any indication of that?


Just the low currently moving through Arkansas moving off the eastern seaboard near there. Nothing tropical.
1152. Ossqss
Quoting Patrap:


There is No evidence of a Terror strike on the Air France Aircraft,no one has claimed responsiblity as that is always a Drum beater.



Updrafts and Downdrafts are more Likely to Have overwhelmed the Aero Surfaces and the Flight Control systems which did fail and well,thats a Bad way to Fly.
That and the inability of the Flight Crew to have adequate time to report Verbally a problem,point to a in-flight break up.

A lot will hinge on weather they can retrieve the CVR and FDR.
Until then,..all we have are maintence records and the Digitally sent data from the Flight.


Which was more than first reported.


Could have been the technology too -- Quote from the link below. No way to overcome manually.

The new Airbus 330 was a “fly-by-wire” plane, in which signals to move the flaps are sent through electric wires to small motors in the wings rather than through cables or hydraulic tubing. Fly-by-wire systems can automatically conduct maneuvers to prevent an impending crash, but some Airbus jets will not allow a pilot to override the self-protection mechanism.

On both Qantas flights, the planes’ inertia sensors sent faulty information into the flight computers, making them take emergency measures to correct problems that did not exist, sending the planes into sudden dives.

If the inertia sensor told a computer that a plane was stalling, forcing it to drop the nose and dive to pick up airspeed, and there was simultaneously a severe downdraft in the storm turbulence, “that would be hard to recover from,” Mr. Weber said.


2 day old
1140. It was a extremly small system with the most powerful winds (i'm winging it ) 15-20 miles at most away from the center (major hurricane winds.) Although I am surpised 100's didn't die from this unless evacuations went so well more than I am thinking.

when it was in the Atlantic at peak winds Ike bigger or smaller than Andrew?
1154. Patrap
Updrafts and Downdrafts above Flt Level 30K can Flip the Largest Aircraft in seconds if not directed around the Updrafts and downbursts,,some that can reach vertical and horizontal speeds in excess or 150mph,over a few hundred feet across to a Mile.

If the Aircraft encountered such forces unexpectedly..nothing can prevent Catastrophe of the Airframe if the G-forces get to Gimbal Lock,,..and control is lost.

A break up occurs when the Airframe tolorences are exceeded.
1155. Patrap
Exactly Ossgss..if he Nosed over at 400Knts @ 40 Degrees,or Nosed up suddenly..all is moot..

Quickly..
1156. Levi32
Quoting Vortex95:
1140. It was a extremly small system with the most powerful winds (i'm winging it ) 15-20 miles at most away from the center (major hurricane winds.) Although I am surpised 100's didn't die from this unless evacuations went so well more than I am thinking.

when it was in the Atlantic at peak winds Ike bigger or smaller than Andrew?


ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 05 2008

...IKE MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST...

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT IKE
IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105
MILES...165 KM.


Wind radius was the same when he was a Cat 4 just before this advisory as well.
The new Airbus 330 was a “fly-by-wire” plane, in which signals to move the flaps are sent through electric wires to small motors in the wings rather than through cables or hydraulic tubing. Fly-by-wire systems can automatically conduct maneuvers to prevent an impending crash, but some Airbus jets will not allow a pilot to override the self-protection mechanism
___________________________________

I also saw an story simular to this....and again am amazed that technology, while great would NOT allow a pilot to override ANY system in which one is flying.
1158. Ossqss
Quoting Patrap:
Exactly ossgs..if he Nosed over at 400Knts @ 40 Degrees,or Nosed up suddenly..all is moot..

Quickly..


Yep, but it must be very scary as a pilot to know you cannot take control of the plane you are flying. You are at the mercy of a chip that someone else programmed. That is a sad part of technological advancement. When we take people out of the equation, we can lose the vision needed to achieve the goal.

Just my take.
1159. Patrap
Bad Mojo can Occur at any time..if one isnt careful or familiar with the EVent .happening and taking the correct action to survive it.

Date: June 26, 1988
Time: 14:45
Location: Habsheim, France
Operator: Air France
Flight number: 296Q
Route: Basel - Basel
AC type: Airbus A320-111
Aboard: 136 (passengers: 130, crew:6)
Fatalities: 3 (passengers: 3, crew:0)

Summary: The plane was scheduled to perform a series of fly-bys at an air show. The plane was to descend to 100 ft. altitude with landing gear and flaps extended. The automatic go-around protection was inhibited for the maneuver. During the maneuver, the plane descended thru 100 ft. to an altitude of 30 feet and hit trees at the end of the runway. The aircraft was totally destroyed by the successive impacts and violent fire which followed. The pilot allowed the aircraft to descend through 100 ft. at slow speed and maximum angle of attack and was late in applying go-around power. Unfamiliarity of the crew with the landing field and lack of planning for the flyby.

Patrap.......an article today somewhat suggest a time line of events on the crash. It was based on the automatice messages that the airplane was sending. It suggested a 14 minute time frame from the first message to the last message. I had "assumed" that whatever happened was quick..possible 3-4 minutes or maybe that was my hope. Is it possible that the passangers actually had a full 14 minutes of knowing they were going to crash?
1161. Patrap
I read that soon after the Release today..and the timeline suggest a cascade of events ,which usually is the case..

Whatever occurred,when the breakup occurred,no one suffered ,at that altitude.
A Cabin break up and sudden decompression would render the most fit unconcious immediately.
Quoting Vortex95:
Its incredible how powerfull yet small andrew was. Being in north east dade we got hurricane force winds but they were not as strong as Wilmas!!! to this day I still find that Amazing. In andrew we had a lot of branches down and tile damage but from wilma at least 6 large trees in my area were topped. I believe Andrew gave us 75-80 mph winds Wilma at peak was around 85-90 and gusting well over 100 mph since it was moving so fast. Although it was a tad bit stronger its gusts were what made it so damaging although andrew was a fast mover as well.
Yep... size does matter!
Hugo was not a Cat 5 (except on Wiki and according to some old timers) -- but it was HUGE. As far away as Charlotte, NC (170 miles from landfall) experienced Cat1 hurricane and gusts over 100 mp
Some of the most profound difficulty from the storm, was the human impact on very poor, very rural areas of inland SC


ADDED: Gives me chills thinking about Flying into Hugo - as Jeff Masters did.
A person on CNN(?)yesterday said there was always a possibility a drug smuggler caused a wake that brought the plane down..I think the area is known for drug smugglers...
there's usually not enough cold air aloft for hail/snow to form,charge the air and produce a static electrical charge(lighting) in the atlantic along the ITCZ,something caused the plane to explode,..but not likely a bomb...IMO
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Yep... size does matter!
Hugo was not a Cat 5 (except on Wiki and according to some old timers) -- but it was HUGE. As far away as Charlotte, NC (170 miles from landfall) experienced Cat1 hurricane and gusts over 100 mp
Some of the most profound difficulty from the storm, was the human impact on very poor, very rural areas of inland SC

Some of the Mountain Tops in NC were wiped clean of lumber from 100mph+ winds during Hugo...
THINGS SHOULD GET INTERESTING IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.... STAY TUNED.
Quoting Patrap:
I read that soon after the Release today..and the timeline suggest a cascade of events ,which usually is the case..

Whatever occurred,when the breakup occurred,no one suffered ,at that altitude.
A Cabin break up and sudden decompression would render the most fit unconcious immediately.


A cascade of events is usually what is found in situations likes this......generally in hindsight it all could have been prevented. Actually, I should say "some" of the mistakes could have been prevented as once a series of event happens there appears to be no way to fix a series of mistakes.

I am glad to hear, whatever happened was quick :(
there's usually not enough cold air aloft for hail/snow to form,charge the air and produce a static electrical charge(lighting) in the atlantic along the ITCZ,something caused the plane to explode,..but not likely a bomb...IMO
wouldn't the plane be flying to high to be effected by a downdraft,I believe they were at 35,000ft,the pilot had alot of experience as well I believe 30ys...
after all these storms were not 50,000ft supercells..
Starting next weekend not this one;South Florida will be in the 90s for the remainder of the month.So the coastal waters as well as the Carib and GOM should become a melting pot in a while.
1172. Patrap
Air France Crash May Point to Limits in Coping With Weather

By John Hughes

June 3 (Bloomberg) -- The crew of the Air France jet that crashed this week over a remote stretch of the Atlantic Ocean may have had little warning of developing storms, according to aviation and weather analysts.

While weather causes fewer crashes than in the past because of advances in radar, the plane was traveling in an area that lacked coverage from ground-based radar, which controllers otherwise can use to help spot storms, said William Voss, head of the Flight Safety Foundation. With less than one flight an hour in the region, there also would have been few advance reports on conditions from other pilots, he said.

The possibility that storms may have contributed to the crash is an early focus of inquiry as authorities search for the black box voice and data recorders that would provide more detailed information of what happened on board. The prospect of a weather-related crash highlights the limits of technology improvements, with pilots still having to rely on outside guidance to help steer clear of dangerous squalls.

No captain in his right mind would drill a modern airliner through a thunderstorm, said Jack Casey, a former airline pilot and consultant at Safety Operating Systems LLC in Washington.
Its just not done.

The Airbus SAS A330-200, with 228 on board, appears to have flown into or near a large cluster of thunderstorms northeast of Fernando de Noronha, located off Brazil's coast, according to AccuWeather.com.

Updrafts may have reached 100 mph, and the storms, stretching for over 400 miles (644 kilometers), towered as high as 50,000 feet, according to the weather service.

Pat that vid u showed is heavily disputed its incredible how impassioned youtubers get.
1174. docrod
blob to invest criteria

Just a general question to this blog - what does the NHC and US Navy use to delineate a blob from an invest? I suspect the criteria are different based on the timing of announcements from the respective sites. Just curious.

- regards - RB
1162. Hugo was a cat 5 on September 15th, the NHC did upgrade it for a short time per

Link
1176. Patrap
Quoting Vortex95:
Pat that vid u showed is heavily disputed its incredible how impassioned youtubers get.


Disputed..?

That occurred in 88 at a Air Show and was Shown round the World on the Nightly news Sport.
1177. Seastep
Quoting Patrap:
Bad Mojo can Occur at any time..if one isnt careful or familiar with the EVent .happening and taking the correct action to survive it.

Date: June 26, 1988
Time: 14:45
Location: Habsheim, France
Operator: Air France
Flight number: 296Q
Route: Basel - Basel
AC type: Airbus A320-111
Aboard: 136 (passengers: 130, crew:6)
Fatalities: 3 (passengers: 3, crew:0)

Summary: The plane was scheduled to perform a series of fly-bys at an air show. The plane was to descend to 100 ft. altitude with landing gear and flaps extended. The automatic go-around protection was inhibited for the maneuver. During the maneuver, the plane descended thru 100 ft. to an altitude of 30 feet and hit trees at the end of the runway. The aircraft was totally destroyed by the successive impacts and violent fire which followed. The pilot allowed the aircraft to descend through 100 ft. at slow speed and maximum angle of attack and was late in applying go-around power. Unfamiliarity of the crew with the landing field and lack of planning for the flyby.



Only 3 fatalities.

That is truly a miracle.
Hugo wasn't a cat 5 in SC but he was far out in the atlantic when Dr. Masters helped find a pressure of 918 mb.

And regarding the AIRFRANCE flight, storms in the ITCZ have been known to reach 68,000 feet.
I looked at it even more it is to complicated for me to explain what the disput i all I can say is that they are disputing pilot error was the fault of the crash of the plane Pat posted. Anyways its not of too much concern now.
1180. Ossqss
Quoting Patrap:


Disputed..?

Thats occurred in 88 at a Air Show and was Shown round the World on the Nightly news Sport.


Yep, no passengers in it. If you listen carefully, you hear them acknowledge the mistake they, the pilots, make with the RPMS on the engine at the last minute.
CIMSS satellite blog has a gravity wave from those extremely cold storm tops puncturing the tropopause as probible cause of the plane crash..
1183. Levi32
Quoting stillwaiting:
wouldn't the plane be flying to high to be effected by a downdraft,I believe they were at 35,000ft,the pilot had alot of experience as well I believe 30ys...


As I understand it there was an unusually large amount of mid-layer dry air present at the time, which would serve to increase upper tropospheric downdrafts.
Quoting TaminFLA:
It's interesting all the comments on Hurricane Andrew. Having lived in Homestead at the time, I always thought that Andrew was a 4 but that there were so many tornados within this storm that it was easy to assume it was a cat five.

The damange was so extensive, but in certain parts of Homestead it just looked like a bomb went off.

It's funny how your mind can remember stuff so vivid after the fact. I worked at Homestead Air Force base and on late Friday afternoon I walked over to the Customs Air Branch to check on the weather. We were planning to go boating...trust me when I say NO ONE was worried about any hurricane. It was not until the next morning on Saturday that the alarm was sounded.

To this day, I don't know how thousands and thousands of people did not die in this storm.

I had thought that the equipment had broken at 180 MPH on the base? I went onto the base a couple of weeks after the storm, to "try" and salvage anything of value in our offices....( confidential papers) but I am sure most people know this was an attempt that was just not possible.

I personally will never forget the majority of my friends who had to run from room to room, as there roofs were being torn off with tiny children. I thank God I stayed with my parents in Kendall!

One block from my parents home, Wayside Baptist Church's entire side of the church was gone....a tornado. I was stunned....until I drove into Homestead days later.


I remember the same thing. I was 11 at the time and I don't remember my parents or anyone else being worried about the storm until the last minute. Even as it was heading towards us everyone thought it wouldn't be so bad. I remember being in the center bathroom and the rest of the house was just gone. I remember my dad opening the door of the bathroom later and saying, "The house is gone." I can still hear the roar of the winds. That's a sound you'll never forget. I remember my family getting lost around the Cutler Ridge area and couldn't figure out how to get home a few days after the storm because everything was so damaged. I remember driving around in our car that had no windows because they were all blown out. Anyway, sorry to ramble...I could go on and on. It's something you'll never forget.
1185. Patrap


Skyepony,..bringing the CIMSS take.

Thanx for that page..

I couldnt find it no where the last hour.

One Bad Cell..wrong place wrong time.

Bad Karma.






Quoting CaneWarning:


I remember the same thing. I was 11 at the time and I don't remember my parents or anyone else being worried about the storm until the last minute. Even as it was heading towards us everyone thought it wouldn't be so bad. I remember being in the center bathroom and the rest of the house was just gone. I remember my dad opening the door of the bathroom later and saying, "The house is gone." I can still hear the roar of the winds. That's a sound you'll never forget. I remember my family getting lost around the Cutler Ridge area and couldn't figure out how to get home a few days after the storm because everything was so damaged. I remember driving around in our car that had no windows because they were all blown out. Anyway, sorry to ramble...I could go on and on. It's something you'll never forget.

I was looking at Google earth and some of the neighborhoods were not to this day rebuilt...you can still see overgrown streets with no houses...anyone living now in Dade would know better though..
Quoting MrstormX:
1162. Hugo was a cat 5 on September 15th, the NHC did upgrade it for a short time per

Link
Indeed, it was. However, here in Charleston, it was high end Cat 4.

One of the stories, I will always remember, was a woman (in Puerto Rico, I believe) who was interviewed by a newscaster, after Hugo swept the island. She was standing beside her demolished home. The newsman (a real sensitive guy) asked ' how do you feel now that you have lost everything?'

The woman turned to him and said.. 'this? this is just stuff. I have my family and that is what matters'

When we evacuated for Hugo, I kept her words in mind. She will never know, what a difference she has made in my life. I think of her often. Putting it in perspective.

Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico were really slammed. Anyone in Charleston who did not heed that wake up call, was very foolish.

Quoting Skyepony:
CIMSS satellite blog has a gravity wave from those extremely cold storm tops puncturing the tropopause as probible cause of the plane crash..



I was watching a wave in that area the night it happened,I remember earlier in the day TS was pulling my leg because I thought it might develop and I did notice some strange outflow looking features moving north away from the area about 11pm est. about 4 or 5 hrs before it happened...its possible that a gravity wave might have just tore the plane apart instantly,IMO
1189. Ossqss
Quoting Ossqss:


Yep, no passengers in it. If you listen carefully, you hear them acknowledge the mistake they, the pilots, make with the RPMS on the engine at the last minute.


They had 136 people on that thing in the first Patrap vid segment? If so, what the hell were they doing at an airshow showing off with passengers, that does not make sense >?
Quoting TampaFLUSA:

I was looking at Google earth and some of the neighborhoods were not to this day rebuilt...you can still see overgrown streets with no houses...anyone living now in Dade would know better though..


Yeah, alot wasn't rebuilt for many years after the storm. My parents moved to Tampa away from the area because of Andrew.
Well it is best not to look to deap into conspiracy or you shall become one

edit: Ossgss The whole thing gets very very confusing once you go into it. It does not make much sense to me and unless I go looking for 10 more hours it will likely never will.

"back to normal chat"
1192. Patrap
IF memory serves me correct,that 88 Air Show crash had a FLight Crew and a few Air France execs on Board..as the Plane was a NEw Model Air France Air Bus
Either way,,the Video was one that shows even on the Best day,in VFR conditions,things can go BAd very fast.
Hurricane Andrew coverage THAT day...

I think the plane just broke apart due to extreme turbulence. The debris is scattered over many miles and if it went straight down intact it wouldn't be. More than likely nobody suffered. It was over before they knew what hit them. The fact that the pilots didn't say a word is proof of that.
1193. That second video starts just a few miles to the north of where I lived. Interesting seeing it again.
Quoting CaneWarning:
1193. That second video starts just a few miles to the north of where I lived. Interesting seeing it again.

Rick is on CNN now...
Quoting stillwaiting:
after all these storms were not 50,000ft supercells..

No, they only broke the tropopause (-80C cloudtops), which in the tropics is around 55,000 feet.
1199. Ossqss
Quoting CaneWarning:
I think the plane just broke apart due to extreme turbulence. The debris is scattered over many miles and if it went straight down intact it wouldn't be. More than likely nobody suffered. It was over before they knew what hit them. The fact that the pilots didn't say a word is proof of that.


I would bet they find the recorder with the assets they have on site. They found the debris with our spy sat system....The recorder has at atleast 28 more days of pinging min.
Hi CaneWarning
Good night all,
New tragedies and old memories make for a heavy heart tonight - off to find something frivolous to read before calling it a night
1202. Seastep
Quoting Skyepony:
CIMSS satellite blog has a gravity wave from those extremely cold storm tops puncturing the tropopause as probible cause of the plane crash..


Wouldn't it be nice if we actually knew what gravity was?

Seriously, it drives me crazy!
Quoting Ossqss:


They had 136 people on that thing in the first Patrap vid segment? If so, what the hell were they doing at an airshow showing off with passengers, that does not make sense >?


I think that is the root of the whole conspiracy thing.

No conspiracy. Just stupidity.
when I saw the feature's it was on the WV loop
Look in to the eye of the storm
1205. docrod
gnite and take care
Quoting Ossqss:


I would bet they find the recorder with the assets they have on site. They found the debris with our spy sat system....The recorder has at atleast 28 more days of pinging min.


I sure hope they find it.
1207. Ossqss
1202. Seastep 11:34 PM EDT on June 03, 2009


Wouldn't it be nice if we actually knew what gravity was?

We know it, but cannot tame it yet !
Quoting TampaMishy:
Hi CaneWarning


Hey Mishy!
almost 17 years ago and it still haunts us. Metro Zoo still has trees that havn't recoverd from it.
1210. Seastep
Quoting Ossqss:
1202. Seastep 11:34 PM EDT on June 03, 2009


Wouldn't it be nice if we actually knew what gravity was?

We know it, but cannot tame it yet !


We know it's there, but we don't have a clue what it is.

I am very disappointed with the delays with the new smasher. Could give some insight.
1211. Ossqss
Night all and I will leave you with this thought for the day.

What impact do the thousands of satellites emitting small and large amounts of microwaves or other radiation type items, have on our current clmate change item over time? How does that play into the overall scenario at hand ?

Just something I have wondered about. Let alone the cell towers etc. Excite the molecules in any atmosphere and what happens? Something to think about I guess. Be well - e
Good evening everyone...Since it is now hurricane season, I have posted a pretty nice contest into my blog!! It features the typical named storms/hurricanes/major hurricanes that we are all familiar with ...and it also has a "predict the landfall location" part. It should be rather fun...and the overall points from the two will be added together to determine a winner at the end of the season. Hope you all enjoy...and feel free to leave me a comment with your predictions or send me some mail. Good Luck!!! =D

Link
i just graduated high school.
congtrats!!!!,get your butt in college ASAP,it'll make it easier to make the transition!!!
Congrats..I'm class of '08 and now attend FSU!!
Oss~ Sleep well. My Gauss Meter says all is safe....


But to ponder~ how about since elf makes molecules like air pollution sticky, it removes enough particles from the air to reduce rainfall in intense areas..

Hi Orca you still here? What about CaneW?
Quoting albert0826:
i just graduated high school.
Congratulations!

Have Fun and Be safe with the celebrating.

Here comes more rain Florida...

South Florida Water Management District RADAR
1221. gator23
Goodnight all! Happy blob watching!
Hey, all.

I just spent the day in the midst of the weather on the East Coast. Currently I am in Boston, MA, after traversing some pretty hectic weather in Philadelphia this afternoon. In fact, my flight was delayed so long because of the weather there that we actually took off from Philadelphia AFTER we were scheduled to arrive in Boston!

I had with me my trusty Canon, and will post ASAP some of the better shots of the weather I experienced today. Maybe I'll even do a bit of a blog entry on it. . . ;o)
Ike,
00z GFS still develops a low lol. See you at 6z
Quoting albert0826:
i just graduated high school.


Congratulations! We had our grad this past weekend. It was really fun and we took lots of pictures although some I would rather be deleted (after party) lol
my prediction is invest 92 will reach the carribean and head nw between the yucatan peninsula as a cat 1, head ne and slam pensacola FL as a cat 4
my predictions this year is 7 named storms 3 hurricanes and no major hurricanes. oops I mean one major hurricane.
there is a 100% chance at least one names storm will form between africa and north america
1229. Makoto1
Quoting slickasatick:
there is a 100% chance at least one names storm will form between africa and north america


lol That might be the best prediction I've seen this year.

Seriously though, I agree there's potential for something to happen in the Caribbean.. But it's amazing how quiet June is that we're watching blobs without much chance for the most part. Not like that's a bad thing.
1230. migmig
I love looking at the rain rolling in over the sea. On another note, does anyone know how to get a shot of the oceans temperature over the last 60 years?
------------------------------------------------
insurance I insurance brokers I insurance companies


Quoting KEHCharleston:
Yep... size does matter!
Hugo was not a Cat 5 (except on Wiki and according to some old timers) -- but it was HUGE. As far away as Charlotte, NC (170 miles from landfall) experienced Cat1 hurricane and gusts over 100 mp
Some of the most profound difficulty from the storm, was the human impact on very poor, very rural areas of inland SC


ADDED: Gives me chills thinking about Flying into Hugo - as Jeff Masters did.


Hugo was a Category 5. Jeff Masters even flew into Hugo while it was a Category 5.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 040538
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


Quoting CybrTeddy:


Hugo was a Category 5. Jeff Masters even flew into Hugo while it was a Category 5.


Yes, it just wasn't a Category 5 for long - only 6 hours... and that was out in the Atlantic. The Good Doctor definitely picked the wrong moment to fly in!
Good morning

The 00Z GFS run has a similiar solution to the 06Z run

Tropical Update
1235. IKE
Quoting Weather456:
Good morning

The 00Z GFS run has a similiar solution to the 06Z run

Tropical Update


Looks like it's coming nowhere near Florida.
1236. IKE
It's got company in the 00Z CMC.
the 6z gfs is even more aggresive than the 00z.
1239. WxLogic
Good morning guys....
1240. IKE
If the GFS verifies, this may be a track similar to ........

1241. WxLogic
As IKE has stated... GFS has starting to receive quite a bit of support from CMC, NOGAPS, and ECMWF(being the weakest).

CMC has this system organizing just off the FL E Coast.

NOGAPS has it organizing on the S GOM and entering W FL and seems to be trending stronger with each run.

ECMWF seems to be in between the afformentioned models but not too different from GFS.

GFS of course has been at it for a while (close to a week) and trending towards a NE track in response to a weekness in the Bermuda High later in the period (towards Monday/Tuesday).

These 00Z/06Z runs were interesting... we'll see about the 12Z runs.
Quoting CaneWarning:


I remember the same thing. I was 11 at the time and I don't remember my parents or anyone else being worried about the storm until the last minute. Even as it was heading towards us everyone thought it wouldn't be so bad. I remember being in the center bathroom and the rest of the house was just gone. I remember my dad opening the door of the bathroom later and saying, "The house is gone." I can still hear the roar of the winds. That's a sound you'll never forget. I remember my family getting lost around the Cutler Ridge area and couldn't figure out how to get home a few days after the storm because everything was so damaged. I remember driving around in our car that had no windows because they were all blown out. Anyway, sorry to ramble...I could go on and on. It's something you'll never forget.


I have always worried about the kids of Andrew :( I thank God I went to my parents home, and my children were very young- of course they remember what happened afterwards as it was a mess for over a year, but we kinda got right back on the horse...had to....I worked for the government, my husband works for FPL and my childrens father is a police officer so that did't give us much time to sit around.

And your right, NOBODY was worried about this storm. It was a lesson for all.

On a bright note...you seem to be interested in weather now :)
1243. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:
Ike,
00z GFS still develops a low lol. See you at 6z


LOL!

You knew I'd be here. Thanks for posting the info while I was sawing a log.....

And I currently have rain and 72 outside my window.
'morning all. :)

Just to let you know, I've begun creating my GOES East Infrared Hurricane Sector animations for this year.

That's right! Animations [plural]!

And as an added bonus, they'll be in hi-def this year, too!

I'll release them on the 1st of each month [unless I'm out there, somewhere...at that time] beginning July 1st.

CycloneOz---

PS: These animations are totally different than in previous years. They're literally gonna knock your socks off! :)
The caribbean seems to the certain point of moisture next week. The uncertainty lies who is after the Caribbean. Moisture could reach the East coast per some solutions.
This is the GOES East Infrared Hurricane Sector Animation for July - September 2008.

The new ones I'm working on don't look anything like this! :)
Quoting CycloneOz:
PS: These animations are totally different than in previous years.


Well...not "totally different." I still like using the Jurassic Park theme for these videos. :)
1249. IKE
Check this radar out of Mobile. Looks like a low moving ENE....

This is impressive for being early June.The 8 AM Discussion of wave in Central Atlantic.Will this wave be the trigger for development in the Caribbean?



<
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A RATHER HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MAXIMUM
IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE
CORRESPONDS WITH A LARGE INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IN THE LOW LEVEL
CLOUD FIELD...WITH SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATING CYCLONIC
CURVATURE IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR THIS WAVE. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 38W-43W. THE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE AT THE
LEADING EDGE OF DRY LOW/MID-LEVEL SAHARAN AIR...WHICH IS FURTHER
ENHANCING THIS CONVECTION AND INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS WITH THE CONVECTION. /strong>
1251. IKE
It is a low. This from the morning discussion out of Mobile,AL....

"AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
424 AM CDT THU JUN 4 2009

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SFC ANALYSIS AND IR/WV LOOPS SHOW
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST EAST OF MOBILE...MOSTLY A
REFLECTION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING EASTWARD ALONG THE AL
AND NWFL BORDER."
1252. IKE
Didn't the last low pressure system move right over the Mobile/Pensacola area? Jeez...It's like we have bullseye over us.
Quoting TaminFLA:


I have always worried about the kids of Andrew :( I thank God I went to my parents home, and my children were very young- of course they remember what happened afterwards as it was a mess for over a year, but we kinda got right back on the horse...had to....I worked for the government, my husband works for FPL and my childrens father is a police officer so that did't give us much time to sit around.

And your right, NOBODY was worried about this storm. It was a lesson for all.

On a bright note...you seem to be interested in weather now :)


Yes, Andrew is the cause for my interest with the tropics. I never want to be caught unaware again.
Quoting IKE:


LOL!

You knew I'd be here. Thanks for posting the info while I was sawing a log.....

And I currently have rain and 72 outside my window.


Does it always rain at your house? It seems like every time you post you have rain!
1256. IKE
Quoting barryweather:
Didn't the last low pressure system move right over the Mobile/Pensacola area? Jeez...It's like we have bullseye over us.


Yup.
1257. IKE
Quoting CaneWarning:


Does it always rain at your house? It seems like every time you post you have rain!


LOL....had over 10 inches in May.

Now it's raining again. You should see my yard...lol...or what's left of it....
1258. cg2916
What does the scale on the GFS mean?
Quoting barryweather:
Didn't the last low pressure system move right over the Mobile/Pensacola area? Jeez...It's like we have bullseye over us.


Better now, than in August and September.
Quoting IKE:


LOL....had over 10 inches in May.

Now it's raining again. You should see my yard...lol...or what's left of it....


I feel your pain! Tampa has a 70% chance of rain today. The no name storm dropped over a foot of rain at my house and we've had several more rain events since then. We'll probably add to it today.
1261. WxLogic
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
This is impressive for being early June.The 8 AM Discussion of wave in Central Atlantic.Will this wave be the trigger for development in the Caribbean?



<
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A RATHER HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MAXIMUM
IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE
CORRESPONDS WITH A LARGE INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IN THE LOW LEVEL
CLOUD FIELD...WITH SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATING CYCLONIC
CURVATURE IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR THIS WAVE. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 38W-43W. THE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE AT THE
LEADING EDGE OF DRY LOW/MID-LEVEL SAHARAN AIR...WHICH IS FURTHER
ENHANCING THIS CONVECTION AND INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS WITH THE CONVECTION.


I will doubt it... the tropical wave will need to travel ~2600miles to get to the SW Carib where development is forecasted in less than 84 hours... if it's currently moving (fast case scenerio) at 15knots... it will take it close to 150hrs to get there if I'm not mistaking. Unless if it speeds up.
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which now also includes Weather456, daily updates


AOI #1

AOI #2
1263. IKE
Pressure is rather low here at my location...

" 70.9 °F
Rain Mist
Humidity: 100%
Dew Point: 71 °F
Wind: 0.0 mph
Wind Gust: 6.0 mph
Pressure: 29.81 in (Falling)
Visibility: 4.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Few 700 ft
Overcast 2200 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 174 ft"
i think the precip. that forms will eventually move into the e pac not north into the northwest carib. climo.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
This is impressive for being early June.The 8 AM Discussion of wave in Central Atlantic.Will this wave be the trigger for development in the Caribbean?



<
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A RATHER HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MAXIMUM
IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BASED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE WAVE
CORRESPONDS WITH A LARGE INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IN THE LOW LEVEL
CLOUD FIELD...WITH SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATING CYCLONIC
CURVATURE IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR THIS WAVE. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 38W-43W. THE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE APPEARS TO BE AT THE
LEADING EDGE OF DRY LOW/MID-LEVEL SAHARAN AIR...WHICH IS FURTHER
ENHANCING THIS CONVECTION AND INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
WINDS WITH THE CONVECTION. /strong>



Isn't this wave associated with the T-Storms that the Air France plane went down in?
Didn't the last low pressure system move right over the Mobile/Pensacola area? Jeez...It's like we have bullseye over us.


Better now, than in August and September

this is so true but i sure hope this isn't a trend for 09...but for the local surfers in al/fl shoulder high right now..... wax and go!!!!
Quoting Nolehead:
Didn't the last low pressure system move right over the Mobile/Pensacola area? Jeez...It's like we have bullseye over us.


Better now, than in August and September

this is so true but i sure hope this isn't a trend for 09...but for the local surfers in al/fl shoulder high right now..... wax and go!!!!


It actually put on a good lightning show about 3AM today. This low looks better on radar than last week's swirl.
1266. The surf cam doesn't look that promising in P'cola.
morning everyone,I see the UL's are still a bit to hostile and/or cold in the GOM/carib/atlantic for TC development,However that will be changing by mid-late month,IMO...as the negative MJO pulse w/be headed over the area and the JS pushes further north..
It looks clean though. I wish I wasn't leaving for work right now.
tornado, yeah i heard it all night long...good poor down about 4am for Elberta.....great just enough wetstuff to have to cut grass again...LOL!!
Quoting CaneWarning:


I feel your pain! Tampa has a 70% chance of rain today. The no name storm dropped over a foot of rain at my house and we've had several more rain events since then. We'll probably add to it today.


Ahhh remember the good old days, what was it..about three weeks ago... Everyone in Florida was wishing for anything and everything that would produce rain to hit them... Safe to assume you have had enough?
Quoting Orcasystems:


Ahhh remember the good old days, what was it..about three weeks ago... Everyone in Florida was wishing for anything and everything that would produce rain to hit them... Safe to assume you have had enough?


I have had enough, and I'm sure most other Floridians have too. There may still be a few unlucky spots that are dry, but right now the ground is pretty saturated.
Nolehead - did not realize you were so close. I live in rural Baldwin south of I-10 myself.

It looks clean though. I wish I wasn't leaving for work right now.

i hear ya, wish i could go to work....got laid off after 19 years from a local p'cola company and after 3 months nothing still...so for now i'll just be the beach bum that everyone thought i would be anyways....lol..so anyone out there need a good employee i will be more than happy to send my resume...
1276. vortfix
We're dry again where I am on the east coast of FL.
No real rain here since last Thursday.
My area only received about 3 inches during the rainy period that flooded Volusia County.

So we could still use a bunch more precip.
Not everyone is saturated.

Quoting vortfix:
We're dry again where I am on the east coast of FL.
No real rain here since last Thursday.
My area only received about 3 inches during the rainy period that flooded Volusia County.

So we could still use a bunch more precip.
Not everyone is saturated.



I know BeachFoxx and Surfmom have had enough... so its only the eastern side of Florida thats still dry?

Isn't it officially your rainy season now?
tornado, cool deal...yeah after a few years it's really neat to see just how close the reg's are in here...and lord knows we all have a common interest after so many crazy and wild seasons...yeah i'm really just north of josephine al...as soon as they start building that bridge over to bear point i will be 5 min from orange beach..woohoo!! no more foley express!!!
Quoting vortfix:
We're dry again where I am on the east coast of FL.
No real rain here since last Thursday.
My area only received about 3 inches during the rainy period that flooded Volusia County.

So we could still use a bunch more precip.
Not everyone is saturated.



Ditto for parts of Eastern Broward County. Not everyone is saturated.
Quoting CaneWarning:


I have had enough, and I'm sure most other Floridians have too. There may still be a few unlucky spots that are dry, but right now the ground is pretty saturated.

Ha then you have seen nothing yet....4 more months of wet.
It is now believe that the tropical wave will not intialize the Sw carib low but add to possible genesis once the system is over the NW Caribbean already developed.
Quoting StormFreakyisher:

Ha then you have seen nothing yet....4 more months of wet.


I know, I'm concerned that if we do get anything tropical much of the west coast of Florida will flood.
morning
most of the global models are hinting of some form of cyclogenesis in the waetern caribbean ,the next few days. The timing and the place of origin is up for grabs at this point in time. my best bet is the area north of panama. there has been some form of cyclonic turning in this area as is seen on early visible sat pictures this morning. there is an increase in convection as well as positive vorticity. although there is south westerly wind shear of 25knots over the area , the shear is forecast to weakn the next 24hrs. sea level pressure is 1007 mb in the vicinity. the approaching tropical wave from the atlantic which looks rather impressive at the moment could be the trigger mechanism for the cyclogenesis which the models are hinting should take place in the waestern caribbean the next few days
Interesting news with the Air France plane... Another pilot saw a flash of white that plunged into the ocean. It sounds like the plane came apart in the air. From the automatic reports from the plane, they say it lost cabin pressure.
Vort~ With pwats like 2 inches today, ecfl should start getting our share again. Looks like the seabreeze has a good chance of being pinned against our coast through Sunday too.
1286. vortfix
Isn't it officially your rainy season now?

Yes it is Orca.
I expect to see regular doses of precipitation now.
We are so far behind in rainfall though...it's going to take a lot and quite some time to get close to normal again.

1287. vortfix
Yes it does look good for the next few days Skye.



Posted at 8:48 AM

Showers and storms to increase during the day


Through noon...Isolated lightning storms and showers will move to the northeast at 10 mph across East Central Florida. Most of the morning storms and showers should occur over Lake Okeechobee and Okeechobee County then spread across Indian River...Saint Lucie and Martin Counties then move over the coastal waters between Sebastian and Jupiter Inlets. Brief heavy rain will occur from Vero Beach to Stuart and Hobe Sound and the adjacent coastal waters between Vero Beach and Hobe Sound. Coverage of storms and showers is expected to start increasing by noon as the showers and storms over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the West Coast of Florida move northeast at 10 mph and enter Lake County.

Water vapor satellite image showing a 500mb shortwave over the Gulf of Mexico moving toward the Florida Peninsula. The shortwave will move overtop Central Florida during the afternoon and evening hours enhancing rain chances. Mid and upper level cloudiness may hinder daytime heating during the morning limiting storm potential. The latest radar loop is showing most of the showers and storms either over the southern areas of East Central Florida or over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico and the Florida West Coast.

Quoting Weather456:
It is now believe that the tropical wave will not intialize the Sw carib low but add to possible genesis once the system is over the NW Caribbean already developed.


Any enlightenment on the two GOM Blobs?
The southern one is not acting like its in 50kts of shear?

I saw where the pilot reported violent winds & lightning 10 mins before it went down. Kinda contridicts what TWC said..
Our local meteorologist mentioned that we could see alot of waterspouts today off the west coast.
1291. NEwxguy
Good morning,all. When does Florida get its most rain,during the summer months?
Quoting CaneWarning:


I know, I'm concerned that if we do get anything tropical much of the west coast of Florida will flood.

Cane if you live in Tampa then you are into some deep trouble.Tampa s very prone to flooding and storm surge from hurricanes.Some call it "the next New Orleans".Link
Quoting NEwxguy:
Good morning,all. When does Florida get its most rain,during the summer months?


Yes, during "rainy season" which typically starts in June. In Tampa, we get storms that form off of the seabreeze almost daily starting in June. The storms typically don't move much so they dump heavy rains.
Quoting StormFreakyisher:

Cane if you live in Tampa then you are into some deep trouble.Tampa s very prone to flooding and storm surge from hurricanes.Some call it "the next New Orleans".Link


Yes, I know. I live on Tampa Bay and would have to evacuate even with a Cat 1.
Quoting tornadofan:
Nolehead - did not realize you were so close. I live in rural Baldwin south of I-10 myself.

Good morning all from Mobile !!
1296. vortfix
The Onset of the Wet and Dry Seasons in East Central Florida,

Link
Check this animation out when a hurricane hits Tampa.Link
Quoting IKE:
Pressure is rather low here at my location...

" 70.9 °F
Rain Mist
Humidity: 100%
Dew Point: 71 °F
Wind: 0.0 mph
Wind Gust: 6.0 mph
Pressure: 29.81 in (Falling)
Visibility: 4.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Few 700 ft
Overcast 2200 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 174 ft"


Hey IKE, it rained all night down by the coast with that low moving onshore. The rain came down sideways pounding on my french doors for most of the night, my front yard is a pond again! The low shows up pretty good on radar pushing NE but we still have a good chance of more rain with that cold front pushing our way, at least it should all be gone by the weekend!
Quoting StormFreakyisher:

Cane if you live in Tampa then you are into some deep trouble.Tampa s very prone to flooding and storm surge from hurricanes.Some call it "the next New Orleans".Link


I have to disagree...when Tampa gets the "Big One", it will make New Orleans look like a mud puddle
1300. vortfix
Air France pilots battled for 15 minutes to save doomed flight AF 447

Air France pilots battled for up to 15 minutes to save the doomed flight that went missing over the Atlantic this week, electronic messages emitted by the aircraft have revealed.

Details have emerged of the moments leading up to the disappearance of flight AF 447 with 228 people on-board, with error messages reportedly suggesting the plane was flying too slowly and that two key computers malfunctioned.

Flight data messages provided by an Air France source show the precise chronology of events of flight AF 447 before it plummeted into the sea 400 miles off Brazil on Monday.

These indicate that the pilot reported hitting tropical turbulence at 3am (BST), shortly before reaching Senegalese airspace. It said the plane had passed through tall, dense cumulonimbus thunderclouds.

At this stage, according to a source close to the investigation cited by Le Monde, the Airbus A330-200's speed was "erroneous" - either too fast or too slow. Each plane has an optimal speed when passing through difficult weather conditions, which for unknown reasons, had not been reached by flight AF 447.

Airbus is expected to issue recommendations today to all operators of the A330 model to maintain appropriate thrust levels to steady the plane's flight path in storms.

Link
Quoting gulfcoastdweller:


I have to disagree...when Tampa gets the "Big One", it will make New Orleans look like a mud puddle


Yes, millions of people in the Tampa Bay region live in flood zones. The only good thing about Tampa is the storm surge would be able to go back out when the storm passes. We wouldn't have to pump out water like they did in N.O.
Quoting gulfcoastdweller:


I have to disagree...when Tampa gets the "Big One", it will make New Orleans look like a mud puddle


Now don't take this wrong.... but didn't NOLA end up looking like a big mud puddle?
1303. IKE
Quoting 69Viking:


Hey IKE, it rained all night down by the coast with that low moving onshore. The rain came down sideways pounding on my french doors for most of the night, my front yard is a pond again! The low shows up pretty good on radar pushing NE but we still have a good chance of more rain with that cold front pushing our way, at least it should all be gone by the weekend!


You had more rain than me today. I'm at .34 inches for the day.

Rain's about ended here.

Yeah...should be a nice weekend...especially Sunday.
Good Morning....Not hyping anything here...Any thoughts on that "tiny" blob along the ITCZ showing a little rotation around 3N-40W?...Just caught my eye
1305. IKE
Quoting vortfix:
Air France pilots battled for 15 minutes to save doomed flight AF 447

Air France pilots battled for up to 15 minutes to save the doomed flight that went missing over the Atlantic this week, electronic messages emitted by the aircraft have revealed.

Details have emerged of the moments leading up to the disappearance of flight AF 447 with 228 people on-board, with error messages reportedly suggesting the plane was flying too slowly and that two key computers malfunctioned.

Flight data messages provided by an Air France source show the precise chronology of events of flight AF 447 before it plummeted into the sea 400 miles off Brazil on Monday.

These indicate that the pilot reported hitting tropical turbulence at 3am (BST), shortly before reaching Senegalese airspace. It said the plane had passed through tall, dense cumulonimbus thunderclouds.

At this stage, according to a source close to the investigation cited by Le Monde, the Airbus A330-200's speed was "erroneous" - either too fast or too slow. Each plane has an optimal speed when passing through difficult weather conditions, which for unknown reasons, had not been reached by flight AF 447.

Airbus is expected to issue recommendations today to all operators of the A330 model to maintain appropriate thrust levels to steady the plane's flight path in storms.

Link


Reads like the plane malfunctioned or pilot error or both.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning....Not hyping anything here...Any thoughts on that "tiny" blob along the ITCZ showing a little rotation around 3N-40W?...Just caught my eye
....I know it's way too early for any Cape Verde type issues...
Quoting MobileMob:

Good morning all from Mobile !!


Back at you! Nice to have a little sunshine this morning, I wasn't expecting it after the rain overnight.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
....I know it's way too early for any Cape Verde type issues...




They have been rolling off there for weeks.. the shear is murder.
1309. NEwxguy
Since most of you are in Florida,good place to ask questions. I assume some areas tend to be wetter than others, does the west coast get more storms than the east coast?
Quoting NEwxguy:
Since most of you are in Florida,good place to ask questions. I assume some areas tend to be wetter than others, does the west coast get more storms than the east coast?


I would think Central Florida because of the dual sea-breze effect.........but remember, Mobile, AL still holds the top spot for the rainiest metropolitan area in the CONUS.
1311. IKE
NEW BLOG!
1312. NEwxguy
whats interesting is seabreezes in Florida fire up the storms and here in Massachusetts, the seabreezes kill the storms.