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Average hurricane season foreseen by CSU, but TSR predicts an active season

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:01 PM GMT on April 07, 2009

A near-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2009, according to the latest seasonal forecast issued today by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The Klotzbach/Gray team is calling for 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. An average season has 10-11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The new forecast is a step down from their December forecast, which called for 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes. The new forecast calls for a near-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (32% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (31% chance, 30% chance is average). The Caribbean is also forecast to have an average risk of a major hurricane.

The forecasters cited several reasons for reducing their forecast from an active season to an average season:

1) Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Atlantic have cooled considerably since December. In fact, these SST anomalies are at their coolest level since July 1994. Cooler-than-normal waters provide less heat energy for developing hurricanes. In addition, an anomalously cool tropical Atlantic is typically associated with higher sea level pressure values and stronger-than-normal trade winds, indicating a more stable atmosphere with increased levels of vertical wind shear detrimental for hurricanes. Part of the reason for the substantial cooling since December is because a stronger than average Bermuda-Azores High drove strong trade winds. These strong winds acted to evaporate more water from the ocean, cooling it. Higher winds also increase the mixing of cool waters to the surface from below. However, in March, the Bermuda-Azores High weakened. The resulting weaker trade winds may allow SSTs to warm to above average levels by the coming hurricane season, if this weaker Bermuda-Azores High persists.

2) Hurricane activity in the Atlantic is lowest during El Niño years and highest during La Niña or neutral years. The CSU team expects current weak La Niña conditions to transition to neutral and perhaps weak El Niño conditions (50% chance) by this year's hurricane season. April and May are typically the months when the atmosphere will swing between El Niño and La Niña, which makes any seasonal forecasts of hurricane activity during April low-skill. The current computer models used to predict El Niño (Figure 1) mostly favor neutral conditions for the coming hurricane season. These models are primarily based on statistical methods that observe how previous El Niño events have evolved. Three of the newer computer-intensive dynamical models (similar to the GFS model we use to make weather forecasts) do predict an El Niño event by hurricane season. The reliability of all of these models is poor.


Figure 1. Computer model forecasts of El Niño/La Niña made in March. The forecasts that go above the red line at +0.5°C denote El Niño conditions; -0.5°C to +0.5°C denote neutral conditions, and below-0.5°C denote La Niña conditions. Three computer models predict El Niño conditions for hurricane season (ASO, August-September-October). However, most of the models predict neutral conditions. Image credit: Columbia University's IRI.

Analogue years
The CSU team picked five previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar in April to what we are seeing this year. Those five years were 2001, featuring Category 4 storms Michelle, which hit Cuba, and Iris, which hit Belize; 1985, which had Category 3 Gloria in New England and Category 3 Elena in the Gulf of Mexico; 1976, which had Category 1 Hurricane Belle in New England; 1968, which had Category 1 Hurricane Gladys north of Tampa; and 1951, which had only one landfalling hurricane, Category 3 Hurricane Charlie in Mexico. The mean activity for these five years was 11 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes.

How accurate are the April forecasts?
This year's April forecast uses the same formula as last year's April forecast, which did quite well predicting the 2008 hurricane season. Last year's forecast included the statement, "These real-time operational early April forecasts have not shown forecast skill over climatology" during the 13-year period 1995-2007. Unfortunately, this year's forecast neglects to mention this fact. In fact, when looking at Excel spreadsheet of their forecast errors (expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient, where positive means a skilled forecast, and negative means they did worse than climatology) their April forecasts have had negative skill between 1995-2008. In other words, you would have been better off using climatology than believing their April forecasts.

2009 Atlantic hurricane season forecast from Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.
The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR), issued their 2009 Atlantic hurricane season forecast yesterday, but they are calling for an active year: 15 named storms, 7.8 hurricanes, and 3.6 intense hurricanes. TSR predicts a 63% chance of an above-average hurricane season, 24% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 13% chance of a below normal season. They give a 63% chance that 2009 will rank in the top third of most active hurricane seasons on record. The April 2009 TSR forecast is virtually identical to their December 2008 forecast, and is also quite close to their April 2008 forecast made for the 2008 hurricane season.

I like how TSR puts their skill level right next to the forecast numbers: 11% skill above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 9% skill for hurricanes, and 7% skill for intense hurricanes. That's not much better than flipping a coin, but is better than the negative forecast skill of the Klotzbach/Gray April forecasts.

TSR projects that 4.8 named storms will hit the U.S., with 2.1 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2008 climatology are 3.2 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. Their skill in making these April forecasts for U.S. landfalls is 10-15% above chance. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.4 named storms, 0.6 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR cites one main factor for their forecast of an active season: slower than normal trade winds from July - September over the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes over the Atlantic (the region between 10° - 20° N from Central America to Africa, including all of the Caribbean). Trade winds are forecast to be 0.4 meters per second (about 1 mph) slower than average in this region, which would create greater spin for developing storms, and allow the oceans to heat up due to reduced evaporational cooling. TSR forecasts that SSTs will be near average in the MDR during hurricane season, and will not have an enhancing or suppressing effect on hurricane activity.


Figure 2. Accuracy of long-range forecasts of Atlantic hurricane season activity performed by Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray of Colorado State University (colored squares) and TSR (colored lines). The CSU team's April forecast skill is not plotted, but is less than zero. The skill is measured by the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS), which looks at the error and squares it, then compares the percent improvement the forecast has over a climatological forecast of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. TS=Tropical Storms, H=Hurricanes, IH=Intense Hurricanes, ACE=Accumulated Cyclone Energy, NTC=Net Tropical Cyclone Activity. Image credit: TSR.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for all the Great info Dr. Masters. Basically we will just have to wait and see.
I've been curious if the reduction and almost near absence of sun-spot activity this past year will further reduce the chances of tropical storm formation.
How long until someone says, "It only takes one storm"?
Quoting tornadofan:
How long until someone says, "It only takes one storm"?


Well it does only take one.
2009
Link
2001
Link

slightly similar isn´t it?
JRRP what does that info mean? I really wasn't into hurricane info back in 01 :)
JRRP...They don't really look too much alike to me...What am I missing???
Anyway, time will tell about this Hurricane Season...I just hope that any activity is strictly directed at the fish....:}
2. Has science seen a correlation?
Using 1992,that season didnt see the "A" storm till late August..

Andrew.

So accuracy means squat.
It only takes one to ruin a Given area's season.

Preparation is the Key.
5. mildy JRRP the Gulf is the only area that is most like as it was in 2001.
does anyone remember an approx time last yr when we started to see all those waves come off africa?
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
Space Science and Engineering Center / University of Wisconsin-Madison

Tropical Cyclones ...A Satellite Perspective


WAVETRAK - Northern Atlantic Sector
The waves seem to be starting but they are unable to cross Africa without being destroyed.
Well nothing can survive 65kt shear.
We look mto the GOM and Carribean for the early systems,for cyclogenesis.
Late May-June.

Not the Atlantic.

Oh Boy, just in. Not good

Earthquake Details
Magnitude 5.6 (Preliminary magnitude — subject to revision)
Date-Time Tuesday, April 07, 2009 at 17:47:41 UTC
Region CENTRAL ITALY
Quoting Patrap:
We look mto the GOM and Carri bean for the early systems,for cyclogenesis.
Late May-June.

Not the Atlantic.



Yep, here are the POO's ( points of origin ) from 44-99 by month

Link
Quoting tornadofan:
How long until someone says, "It only takes one storm"?


It only takes one. :)

In all seriousness, I don't give much credence to any pre-season forecast from any forecast group. I might start paying attention more once CSU's May forecast is released, since by that time, we may have a general idea of what the pattern will be like for the season.
Quoting tornadofan:
How long until someone says, "It only takes one storm"?


Ummmm. I think you were the first

Back to work L8R and #20 I concur, just rollin the dice right now.
Thanks for the update, Dr. Masters.

Hi all:

Everything is still go on my upcoming video presentation "Experience the Preparation for Hunting Hurricanes." The local fire dept. "is down" for the experiment where I will test my hurricane safety gear for me and my technology. We'll be collecting an interesting bit of data during the test. Right now, the fire dept. team knows what the psi of the water that comes down the hose is...but not the water's speed. I'll be able to provide them with that info during the tests.

In the meantime, I've released a new video called "American Rockhound in HD" which documents my other passion in life, rockhounding.

I anticipate another video release shortly that will be called "Turkey Hunt New Mexico" which will also be in HD.

Hopefully, many of you out there are having as much fun as I am these days. Cheers!
Afternoon.......Nothing new here (in terms of the early predictions from the pros) and what can change between now and the dead of summer...Will just have to see what sets up later in the year come June in terms of all of the relevent factors (SST's/Bermuda High/SAL values/Wind Shear, etc......)...We have always had a few surprises over the past several years during the season (TS Faye comes to mind from last year)so looking forward to see what Mother Nature may/may not (hopefully) unleash this coming Year............Thanks Dr. M..
TSR are calling for an average +AMO season (15/8/4) more or less...

Yep, wait and see. Be interesting to see come early June whether the CSU varies again.. as well as it'd be worth keeping on eye on the El Nino variations.
5. JRRP - If by "slightly similar" you mean "barely alike", yes. The only place that is even somewhat similar is the NE gulf having a cool spot, and the NW gulf having a slightly warm spot, but the degree of the anomaly is off for both. The North Pacific is completely different (this year has a huge warm spot in the central pacific), and even the equatorial eastern pacific looks drastically different.

This far out, SSTs aren't much an indicator of activity, as shear trends and trade wind speed are both more important to how the season will shape up. (remember last year we had 2 eddies break off in the GOM, which is unusual, and the second broke off in July and fed both Gustav and Ike)
Glad to see the Colo Team has reduced their prediction from Dec and glad to read the reasons why. Sol continues its reluctance to spot. 593 spotless days, likely to surpass the Cycle 9/10 transition by early this hurricane season. Now back to wait and see.
Quoting jeffs713:
5. JRRP - If by "slightly similar" you mean "barely alike", yes. The only place that is even somewhat similar is the NE gulf having a cool spot, and the NW gulf having a slightly warm spot, but the degree of the anomaly is off for both. The North Pacific is completely different (this year has a huge warm spot in the central pacific), and even the equatorial eastern pacific looks drastically different.

This far out, SSTs aren't much an indicator of activity, as shear trends and trade wind speed are both more important to how the season will shape up. (remember last year we had 2 eddies break off in the GOM, which is unusual, and the second broke off in July and fed both Gustav and Ike)


Yup...Those dreaded "warm pools" and the corresponding problem of rapid intensifation and sustinence for any potential Gulf storm..
28. N3EG
My hurricane predictions: I flipped the same coin as last year, and it landed on the same side as last year, so therefore our hurricane season will be the same as last year. Note: Flipping coins is a game of chance, and should not be used for hurricane intensity predictions, picking lottery numbers, or determining the percentage of accuracy a QuikSCAT improves hurricane forecasting.
Quoting msphar:
Glad to see the Colo Team has reduced their prediction from Dec and glad to read the reasons why. Sol continues its reluctance to spot. 593 spotless days, likely to surpass the Cycle 9/10 transition by early this hurricane season. Now back to wait and see.


Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 12 days
2009 total: 84 days (87%)
Since 2004: 595 days
Typical Solar Min: 485 days
my numbers up in my blog pretty well the same except iam expecting some subtropical activity early and late in the season
Thank you for your input Dr. Masters.
Your pre-season analysis of the predictions is one of my favorite blogs.

See CSU lowered there numbers for a few reasons sst's and possible weak nino developing.No matter what the predictions say one must always prepare as they do every season.Remember numbers predicted are not of any importance as the ones that hit land have the greatest impact.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number FIFTEEN
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE JADE
22:00 PM Réunion April 7 2009
=================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Jade (994 hPa) located at 20.8S 49.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The storm is reported as moving south at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale-Force Winds
=====================
100 NM radius from the center within the eastern semi-circle and up to 30 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Near Gale-Force Winds
=======================
190 NM radius from the center within the eastern semi-circle, extending up to 250 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 21.8S 48.7E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
24 HRS: 22.5S 48.3E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 24.1S 48.1E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
72 HRS: 25.4S 49.7E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================
After a few hours where it was almost impossible to provide a dvorak analysis over the system but where it was showing some gale force winds over a large area within the eastern semi-circle. (CF. today's Quikscat and ASCAT Passes), a nice curved band has maintained since 1500z in the eastern semi-circle. At 1800z, the system shows a white band at 0.50 on a LOG10 spiral, that gives a DT at 3.0. The system still tracks southward over the last hours under the steering influence of the mid level subtropical ridge located in the east. The southward track is expected to slow down tomorrow as the subtropical highs rebuilds temporarily south to Madagascar. As the system is back over quite warm water, strengthening is on the way. However, due to the proximity of land and a gradual deterioration of the environmental conditions, intensification should be limited (gradually stronger northwesterly to westerly shear).
34. IKE
Quoting tornadofan:
How long until someone says, "It only takes one storm"?


LOL...one minute...
Quoting IKE:


LOL...one minute...


It is good to see hurricane conversations though...
No mention of African dust? Does anyone have a sat. link?

From CSU today...It will be interesting to see how things evolve in the comings months.

40. IKE
Quoting tornadofan:


It is good to see hurricane conversations though...


Yup...

54 days...
9 hours...
5 minutes and it starts....

The National Hurricane Conference Participating Organizations.

International Association of Emergency Managers
International Code Council
LSU Hurricane Center
National Emergency Management Association
National Storm Shelter Association

Next of Kin Registry (NOKR)
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
I don't get it. If the Klotzbach/Gray team's skill at predictions is less than zero, why the heck do they put it out and why does anyone care???? Oh yeah, I'll bet they get some serious funding from somewhere to put out a "less than zero skill" prediction. Heck, fund me, I can do just as well with a coin.


Watch in HD. These are updated every 6 hrs. Will be nice to have during hurricane season.
going to see those atlantic water temp's temporarily go down after this strong cold front happy weather
All I know is that on June 2, I'm headed south for month of fun. I will be 2 blocks from the gulf. I'm hoping that the season starts out slow. I do not want my Hillbilly Beachbum vacation ruined! Almost finished sprucing up the "vintage" trailer I bought and the reservation is made. Vintage sounds so much better than the word old. he he...
"flips coin"
I think the TSR's the more accurate one in my opinion.
they got 2008 pretty close.
Well,if not for accuracy,at least it gets some hurricane talk going.
Hillbilly Beachbum

that has a nice ring to it...
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I think the TSR's the more accurate one in my opinion.
they got 2008 pretty close.


Ive found them to have better information
LOL it is very humid out there

Quoting CybrTeddy:
I think the TSR's the more accurate one in my opinion.
they got 2008 pretty close.


It's certainly closer to the real average of this period.

And I guess with these forecasts, the hurricane preseason begins in earnest...
I declare it preseason Hurricane forecasting time!
Alright. A few questions, please answer if you wish.
1) When will Ana Form? (my vote 5-28-09)
2) How many storms will there me (my vote 15)
3) How many Hurricanes and Majors do we get? (5/2)
4) What place is most at risk this year? (My vote, Caribbean or East coast)
5) In an off chance, will we see a Category 5 this year? (My vote, possibly and if there is I hope its a fish, and someone was bound to ask the question :D)

I think this years going to prove similar to 2007.
Cybr, you forgot one.

6.) When does the CMC forecast the first apocalyptocane?
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I declare it preseason Hurricane forecasting time!
Alright. A few questions, please answer if you wish.
1) When will Ana Form? (my vote 5-28-09)
2) How many storms will there me (my vote 15)
3) How many Hurricanes and Majors do we get? (5/2)
4) What place is most at risk this year? (My vote, Caribbean or East coast)
5) In an off chance, will we see a Category 5 this year? (My vote, possibly and if there is I hope its a fish, and someone was bound to ask the question :D)

I think this years going to prove similar to 2007.


OK, I'll bite.

1- 6-27 first storm
2- 13 total
3- 9 and 4 ( 2 big boyz at the same time )Try that on.
4- Yucatan and the Carolina's
5- 2 Cat 5 storms, one fish and one Yucatan

I believe we will see the Burmuda High in an unusual position this year. Slightly east of its normal position. Back to work. L8R


Technical Attachment

AN OVERVIEW OF NHC PREDICTION MODELS

Bernard N. Meisner
Scientific Services Division
National Weather Service Southern Region

Introduction

Storm Track Guidance Models
HURRAN | CLIPER | NHC98 | BAM | LBAR | GHM (GFDL) | GFS (formerly AVN) | NOGAPS | GUNS, GUNA and CONU Ensembles
Relative Skill of the Statistical | Numerical Guidance Models

Storm Intensity Guidance Models
SHIFOR | SHIPS | GHM (GFDL)
Relative Skill of the Intensity Guidance Models

Forecast Verification

Storm Surge Guidance Model
SLOSH
2007 Could have been worst than 2008. It was all thanks to that unusual strong subtropical ridge

Lightning Warns of Hurricanes' Most Intense Moments?

John Roach
for National Geographic News
April 6, 2009

Lightning may help improve hurricane forecasts by signaling when the storms are about to reach peak intensity, according to a new study.

Current satellite and radar technologies can fairly accurately predict a storm's path, but when and how much a storm will intensify are harder to pin down.
Thanks washingaway for posting that really cool animation.

I noticed that it's a forecast...way cool. You are correct in saying that this new thing [I've never seen it before, anywhere] will have an impact in this blog when hurricane season comes around.

Once again...many thanks!
Hey Patrap.

Read the article.

My reaction to it?

Wuh?

What lightning are they talking about? Worldwide? Within a developing storm? They mention lightning sensors...that paragraph is the one that makes the whole article a "wuh?" for me.

Sounds like those two guys are sniffing around for a grant.

Building a Career in Disaster Relief

APRIL 7, 2009

The core to the effectiveness of any disaster response is the ability to share information and coordinate the effort between the many organizations involved. Software can play a huge role in doing that. Whenever we hear about a disaster, whether it's a flood, or a hurricane or an earthquake, the first step is to establish a connection with the leading local response organization, such as a government agency or the United Nations. Then we help with real-time communication and use mapping software to provide partners with situational awareness so relief agencies, for example, could see the location of a shelter in need of medical supplies. We also give data-sharing capability to first responders and government agencies so they can share relevant information with outside organizations without compromising security. (The amount of money Microsoft spends on each disaster varies, but for example, the China quake efforts cost $3.1 million.)
Lightening in Hurricanes is not a NEW thing..we experienced it During Katrina and Gustav.

The research is Valid and expanding.
Thats how science works I believe.

Dr. Masters may have some words on the subject.
Maybe he can en"lighten" us as to his take on it.
I've been in four documented hurricanes...Ivan, Dennis, Dolly, and Ike...and not one bolt of lightning.

Lightning Warns of Hurricanes' Most Intense Moments?

Each of these hurricanes were unique in their own way...but Dolly intensified right off the coast. There was no lightning that night...or during the early morning hours.

There was plenty of other electrical action, though! :)


More on the subject here

NASA - NASA Finds Intense Lightning Activity Around a Hurricane's Eye
Jun 23, 2006 ... All of these organizations study lightning in hurricanes to get a better understanding of the strengthening or weakening (intensification) ...
www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurricanes/archives/2006/hurricane_lightning.html - 24k - Cached - Similar pages -
Well Oz..ya havent been around when it occurs.

Its not a Myth..LOL
I would love for Dr. Masters to weigh in on lightning during hurricanes.

But just to be clear, I'm talking about lightning that hits the ground, not the airborne, in the clouds kind.

Some of THE leading intensity research is using the Lightening Data Sets for intensity.

Its a good subject for someone in the field to read up on.
Lotsa printed material on it.


My contention is this...

If they're thinking that increased lightning activity signifies that a hurricane is reaching peak intensity, where was the lightning in Hurricane Dolly. Man, I was out in it, I took time lapse from an 8th floor, there was not one, single bolt.

Unless Dr. Masters can convince me, I'm about to lump this one with the hoax of global warming.
Oz...Im not a Researcher..

But when you experienced your Hurricanes,your only seeing maybe 6 hours of a Storms Life.
Read some of the research and enlighten oneself.

Jeesuz..LOL

Heap away. Plenty of US have seen the data and the Lightning ourselves.

You never seen a Black Hole either,but they exist.
Thanks for the updated forecast and commentary Dr. Masters! What I want is a season with no hurricanes at all!
If anyone would like to know what I think about this hurricane season it's on my blog. =)
Quoting Patrap:
research and enlighten oneself.


=) I get it....
69 & 70
Hey,
I have been through a dozen or so canes and the only lighting I have seen is in the rain bands before the storm proper. However in or near the eye, the rain and wind are so heavy that perhaps its there , we just can't see or hear it!
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Thanks for the updated forecast and commentary Dr. Masters! What I want is a season with no hurricanes at all!


Though I'm fascinated by the darn things, I'll second that! Here Here! Here's to a season with no hurricanes!
Heres a decent article on the 2005 canes and the Lightning observed and recorded.

Hurricanes of 2005 were filled with mysterious lightning

The boom of thunder and crackle of lightning generally mean one thing: a storm is coming. Curiously, though, the biggest storms of all, hurricanes, are notoriously lacking in lightning. Hurricanes blow, they rain, they flood, but seldom do they crackle.

Surprise: During the record-setting hurricane season of 2005 three of the most powerful storms--Rita, Katrina, and Emily--did have lightning, lots of it. And researchers would like to know why.

Richard Blakeslee of the Global Hydrology and Climate Center (GHCC) in Huntsville, Alabama, was one of a team of scientists who explored Hurricane Emily using NASA's ER-2 aircraft, a research version of the famous U-2 spy plane. Flying high above the storm, they noted frequent lightning in the cylindrical wall of clouds surrounding the hurricane's eye. Both cloud-to-cloud and cloud-to-ground lightning were present, "a few flashes per minute," says Blakeslee.
During the record-setting hurricane season of 2005 three of the most powerful storms--Rita, Katrina, and Emily--did have lightning, lots of it.


Well, there ya go. I was in Ivan, Dennis, Dolly & Ike...where there was no lightning!

I just need to go to the "right" storms next time! :)
Some of that Rita lightening at the end of the video.

Link
Lightning happens. It is inevitable, you may not see it or hear it due to the fact you are out in a hurricane, but it is there during the period the article references. The reference is on using lightning to help ID intensification. When the towers start growing to 40 or 50k', and the lightning is more frequent, it is depicting an intensifying storm. Hence the 30 hr gap. That does not typically happen over land and probably why you did not see it. Just my take.
Excellent footage there,thanx for the Rita Video.
Wow great video wanderer
All this rigamarow about predicting hurricane intensity by measuring lightning in hurricanes is a bunch of full out bahooey.

I can dig Katrina...but Ivan was something else. And since Ivan didn't throw out lightning, then research in this area is money down the commode.

Give me more bouys! That's where I'd put my money!
Quoting CycloneOz:


Well, there ya go. I was in Ivan, Dennis, Dolly & Ike...where there was no lightning!

I just need to go to the "right" storms next time! :)


You would have to be in a boat to see what they are talking about with respect to the lightning and relationship to intensification and the ultimate winds that happen 30hrs later. Aside from our TC last year, I think you all know these things don't intensify over land folks.
Bouys, with lightning sensors? :)
Factors influencing hurricanes
ENSO
Atlantic SST
Bermuda/Azores High
African Dust
Trade Winds
Wind Sheer
And what else ....????
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Factors influencing hurricanes
ENSO
Atlantic SST
Bermuda/Azores High
African Dust
Trade Winds
Wind Sheer
And what else ....????


How about upwelling from previous storm tracks?

L8R back to work. --- loop currents
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Factors influencing hurricanes
ENSO
Atlantic SST
Bermuda/Azores High
African Dust
Trade Winds
Wind Sheer
And what else ....????


Fast forward speed (the faster the movement, the more difficult it is for a tropical wave or a developing tropical cyclone to maintain a closed surface circulation), although that is generated by the trade winds, so I'm not sure it deserves a separate mention.
CME Group Acquires & Renames Hurricane Index; Selects New Calculation Agent


CHICAGO, April 6 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- CME Group, the world's largest and most diverse derivatives exchange, announced today that it has acquired the Carvill Hurricane Index from Carvill America Inc. and renamed it the CME Hurricane Index. In addition, CME Group signed a Memorandum of Understanding with EQECAT, the leading authority on extreme-risk modeling, to be the new calculation agent for the index. The hurricane futures and options contracts are listed with, and subject to, the rules and regulations of CME.

"We continue to be encouraged by the growth of the weather derivatives market, especially hurricane futures and options, which already have traded 4,000 contracts before the start of this year's hurricane season," said Felix Carabello, Director of Alternative Investment Products at CME Group. "As the new calculation agent for the hurricane index, EQECAT will help CME Group continue to provide innovative ways for businesses to manage their risk associated with weather events."
Quoting Ossqss:


How about upwelling from previous storms?


how about a land mass in the track?


House committee approves hurricane insurance bill
By BRENT KALLESTAD




Associated Press Writer

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. -- With less than four full weeks left in the 2009 session, lawmakers started moving legislation Friday aimed at reducing a multibillion dollar property insurance risk politicians have laid on Florida consumers and taxpayers.

After running through more than a dozen amendments, the Insurance, Business and Financial Affairs Committee approved a bill to make the state-backed Citizens Property Insurance Corp. a last-resort insurer. The measure would also draw down the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund obligations by several billion dollars.

"We've got a problem," Catastrophe Fund manager Jack Nicholson told the committee. "Solvency could be an issue."
Quoting MissNadia:


how about a land mass in the track?


Ah, yes, land.

Indeed. I'm not sure if you thought of this when you mentioned land as a hindrance to development, but I'll throw it out there.

Not only will a tropical cyclone weaken once overland, there is also another way in which land can weaken a tropical cyclone. Namely, disrupting low-level inflow if a tropical cyclone gets too close. Though it was not explicitly mentioned by the NHC or anyone on here, I believe that is one of the reasons (in addition to the obviously disrupted inner core from passage over Cuba) Gustav was weakening rapidly for the first 12-18 hours after leaving Cuba; the inflow on its south side was being disrupted by Cuba, which was still fairly close.

Inflow can be disrupted via land when a tropical cyclone's circulation pulls off dry continental air off a given location.
Wow great video wanderer

Excellent footage there,thanx for the Rita Video.
Your welcome.
Ive enjoyed and learned from some of the videos that yall have placed on here too. Not to mention all the great links and discussions.
Thanks to yall too.
WUnder-Blogger StormKen is a Reporter for the Sun-Sentinel in Florida,...here's a article from Him yesterday.

National Hurricane Center improves warning system for rising water



By Ken Kaye | South Florida Sun-Sentinel
April 6, 2009

It holds the potential to kill hundreds and bulldoze buildings at the shoreline.

This is storm surge, and as of this year the National Hurricane Center is overhauling public warnings to emphasize its dangers.

The center is beefing up advisories and officially offering color-coded maps to let you know the chances your home might be inundated by rising waters. The maps will be posted on the hurricane center's online site, nhc.noaa.gov, each time a watch or warning is issued.

"Hopefully, we're giving people information they can really use, so they understand what their risk really is," said James Franklin, team leader over the center's hurricane specialists.


Was that a Hurricane? In Oklahoma?
Tropical Storm Erin May Have Become A Hurricane ... Deep Inland

Or to quote the great Jeff Masters, perhaps Erin was a "Thingamabobbercane"!

a href="http://www.thedailygreen.com/environmental-news/blogs/hurricanes-storms/oklahoma-
cyclone-55041201" target="_blank">Link

LOL. I know they don't redevelope over land just thought this was interesting.
Link

Hope this link works.
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Factors influencing hurricanes
ENSO
Atlantic SST
Bermuda/Azores High
African Dust
Trade Winds
Wind Sheer
And what else ....????


Upwelling from previous 'canes (Though the Dennis/Emily combo of '05 was the exception.)
Land/Mountains
AMO
Proximity to other storms in the way.
Ridges/fronts.
Steering tracks.
Time (Though sort of related to everything. Like, Sept is more likely to give you a Cat 5 than June.)


...Seeding? ;)


Oklahoma's "Landcane"

Waking up to heavy rain in Oklahoma this morning was an eerie reminder of the anniversary of one of the state's strangest weather events. On August 19, 2007, the looping remnants of Tropical Storm Erin unexpectedly regained their purpose over Oklahoma and created a weather anomaly that fascinated both meteorologists and wannabe-meteorologists (like me).



Italy: Earthquake - Apr 2009
Updates on Italy affected by the Italy: Earthquake - Apr 2009 emergency. GLIDE No. EQ-2009-000072-ITA


Latest Updates
Save to My ReliefWeb


RE: 97. Patrap

Is this plausible?

My premise

During the months prior to the remnants of Erin, Oklahoma received record breaking precipitation ( Oklahoma Climatology Survey). Hence wet warm ground.

When Fay made landfall south of Naples, traveling n.e. (over wet warm ground), she intensified

Ergo, wet warm ground has a similar effect as warm water.

Whatcha think?
In orderr for cyclogenesis to Occur and Sustain,..usually and ,Im not a met nor a researcher,
Usually a SST of 80 degree's,thru a depth of so many meters or feet is required to develop and sustain a Hurricane.
But I see your point and maybe there is some merit to the feedback that occured during that event.

It Bears some scrutiny at least,I bet.
Hornby Island Eagle Cam

Go and watch this.. Fantastic..and live
Link 2

* Hornby Island - Close-up Camera - Live sound and video from Doug Carrick's original camera
* Hornby Island - Wide-angle Camera - Live sound and video - the new camera position above the nest
* Victoria/Sidney - New Nest - Live sound and video from the new nest the eagles are using this year
* Victoria/Sidney - Old Nest - Live sound and video from the old nest - watch for the eagles as they rest - and watch for the new eaglets after they fledge
* O.W.L. (Orphaned Wild Life refuge) Delta, BC - Eagle Nest Close-up Camera - Live sound and video - infra-red for night-time viewing
* O.W.L. Pan-Tilt-Zoom (PTZ) Camera - Delta, BC - Live sound and video from the next tree - watch as the eaglets start to "branch" prior to fledging
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I declare it preseason Hurricane forecasting time!
Alright. A few questions, please answer if you wish.
1) When will Ana Form? (my vote 5-28-09)
2) How many storms will there me (my vote 15)
3) How many Hurricanes and Majors do we get? (5/2)
4) What place is most at risk this year? (My vote, Caribbean or East coast)
5) In an off chance, will we see a Category 5 this year? (My vote, possibly and if there is I hope its a fish, and someone was bound to ask the question :D)

I think this years going to prove similar to 2007.


ADDING to this.
6) How accurate do you think the GFS will be this year in cyclone genesis (very)
7) What position will the Bermuda high be in?
8) How bad will the SAL be?
Quoting Orcasystems:
Hornby Island Eagle Cam

Go and watch this.. Fantastic..and live


Too cool, and thanks for sharing. I have a pair of them that come by frequently. I have also seen a Golden Eagle, intermittently which is much larger. Had a chance to watch the Bald Eagle fight with an Osprey over a nesting tree in the back yard. The Eagle won.

Back to work.
105. N3EG
ADDING to that:

How many trolls will we have here during hurricane season? My estimate: Even one is too many.
Quoting N3EG:
ADDING to that:

How many trolls will we have here during hurricane season? My estimate: Even one is too many.


Too many
Quoting N3EG:
ADDING to that:

How many trolls will we have here during hurricane season? My estimate: Even one is too many.


Please define Troll for us, so we all know, and thanks in advance.

I may resemble that remark ª¿ª
A new,well new last year feature is this. When someone creates a Handle for the wunderground Blogs,there is a 12 hour wait b-4 one can post .
That deters one from just changing a handle and banging the Blog. Always IGNORE the ones causing trouble. Always.
Use the Filter or the ignore feature.
Quoting Patrap:
A new,well new last year feature is this. When someone creates a Handle for the wunderground Blogs,there is a 12 hour wait b-4 one can post .
That deters one from just changing a handle and banging the Blog. Always IGNORE the ones causing trouble. Always.
Use the Filter or the ignore feature.


Spoken like a very wise man. lol
Ok so, This would be the rule of Thumb?
I've got to agree with Patrap & the research about the lightning. Oz~ Check out this site. Watch the lightning around the world. There certainly is a corilation. What could be studied more is the type if they can tell it. Definately more frequent toward the center. I've noticed when one is deepning quick like Katrina exiting FL far from center is infrequent but really powerful, ground shaking for a long time, deadly cloud to ground. Lightning pretty much dies off about as soon as it's feeling the effects of any land, cool SST or shear that is hindering it.

The research about the dust & volcanos controling SST by 70%, so being the big factor for hurricanes... 2005 was pretty dusty & hot. They dismiss it as a low dust year & it wasn't. Here's a bit from other research..

For the 2005 hurricane season, which broke records in the Atlantic, however, dust activity was moderate, indicating yet another level of potential complexity to the dust-hurricane interactions, which the researchers are continuing to investigate, Evan says. During that year%u2019s hurricane season, the researchers noted an increase in dust from the African coast, and a dearth of hurricanes forming in the middle of the Atlantic. Instead, they %u201Ckind of got pushed closer to the United States,%u201D he says. Therefore, an indirect effect may also occur, in which the dust may dampen storm formation in the middle Atlantic, but not prevent them from forming farther west.
Ok, I can take a hint. You must have seen my class pic. L8R Back to work

Little lightning in a cane is the norm. Most of it anywhere near the eyewall occurs in intensifying portions. And usually no where near the flash rate of your average t-storm.

Lots of it all around is the anomaly, which is why Pat found articles that say things like: "during the record-setting hurricane season of 2005 three of the most powerful storms--Rita, Katrina, and Emily--did have lightning, lots of it. And researchers would like to know why."

During Katrina's landfall, there was almost none, but the rainbands well ahead of the storm (24 hours before landfall) clearly had enough convection. Here is a home-brew plot of it:


(white is within the previous 20 minutes through orange being up to 100 minute before the time stamp)
what's up everyone,lot-o-wind today in sarasota,there were waves reported to 11ft offshore of my area and thats huge for my neck of the woods!!!!!!...I've also started a local sarasota-suncoast weather chat/tweet on twitter.com,all are welcome and it will be a will provide a wealth of info as the suncoasts #1 source of info for the TC season...sign up its easy and stop by twitter.com and tweet me at twitter.com/sarasotaweather,I'm just getting started and this could help alot of locals when storms threaten the suncoast......
A lesson for anyone with trollish tendancies...

Social Networking: How To Behave On An Internet Forum
NHC is doing some work with lightning:






Looking at atmo's graph and remembering back to that time.Evening,dusk..August 28th 2005
I had a VHS tape running in the VCR and will have to look at the Local radar but something does stand out in mind from that Sunset,around 8pm.

First of all,most all were gone from Bucktown and Metairie. That stood out.
But looking Southeast,a Big Line of t-storms,..low enough on the Horizon..with that eerie Kinda Between CLoud embedded Flashing,was swirling in towards the City...it was the First Rain Band,well ahead of the Eyewall by 9-10 hours almost.

It was kinda then ya knew something was different about this one.

Way off on the Horizon to the Southeast,was the Curving Tower of Katrina's Cirrus top.
Was so Big and far way. And that low angle light from Dusk was hitting it.

Chill's I tell ya man,frigging willies for sure..then went in to see radar and Sat pics.

More chills.

Even the dog was squirrely.





Bruning House Remnants
Bucktown, Louisiana

This is all that is left of a once beautiful, century old white southern-style house with wrap around porches that sat on this peninsula on Lake Pontchartrain. It had survived many big hurricanes but none like Katrina. It was shown in the movie "The Big Easy" and was occupied by a fourth generation of the Bruning family who had a famous seafood restaurant nearby. The restaurant also became treasures of the swift, destructive waters of Katrina.







Pat that picture speaks for itself.
Yeah..its a Bad day when Bad things have to happen to Good people..
This is the House as it was in 89,in the Movie. The Big Easy.

Cajun Style,cher..

Itsa all gone now..like a faded memory.

Now the New Floodgate and Pumps sit there.
Daring mother nature.

Ossqss - I don't know where you get your data. My source is a combination of Janssen's data through end of 2008 = 510 days; plus the count from NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center for all of 2009. Jan - Mar = 77 days plus what it shows for this month so far = 7,
so 594 now. The differences between our respective count is pretty insignificant in the long run.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number SIXTEEN
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE JADE
4:00 AM Réunion April 8 2009
=================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Jade (987 hPa) located at 21.4S 48.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The storm is reported as moving south-southwest at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Gale-Force Winds
=====================
20 NM radius from the center, extending up to 40 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 100 NM within the eastern semi-circle

Near Gale-Force Winds
=======================
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 140 NM in the northeastern quadrant and up to 210 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 22.9S 47.8E - 40 knots (DEPRESSION sur Terre)
24 HRS: 22.9S 47.8E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION sur Terre)
48 HRS: 24.3S 47.5E - 25 knots (PERTURBATION Tropicale)
72 HRS: 27.3S 51.3E - 30 knots (Devenant EXTRATROPICAL)

Additional Information
======================
Convection wrapped 0.8 on LOG10 spiral. Lower accuracy on present fix that has been made mainly with infrared MET-7 imagery. Under the steering influence of the mid level subtropical ridge located in the east. The rebuild of the subtropical highs south to Madagascar, tracks has taken a more south-southwesterly component within the next 36 hours. On this track, system should make a third landfall this evening or later tonight within the area between Manajary and Farafangana or stay close to the coastal areas of southeast Madagascar. Friday, a deep mid-latitude trough arrives from the southwest and Jade should be embedded within the northwesterly flow ahead of the trough. By that time, system should on a weakening trend within a westerly sheared environment and a possible interaction with land. Extratropical transition could be on the way Saturday as the system begins to accelerate towards the southeast. Present track forecast is based on a global consensus of all available NWP models from the 1200z run that shows some quite good agreement for the general philosophy. However there is still some spread and the outlier one is the UKMET that brings the system eastwards Friday. At this time and according to all the scenario shown by the ECMWF ensemble prediction system, the UKMO solution seems rather unlikely.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
9:00 AM FST April 8 2009
==========================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance [1005 hPa] located at 7.0S 163.0E is reported as moving slowly. Position POOR based on multispectral infrared/visible imagery with animation.

The system lies embedded along a monsoonal trough with low level circulation center difficult to locate. Convection has been persistent for the last 24 hours, but with no real organization. CIMSS indicates the system lies in a low shear environment under a diffluent region. Sea surface temperature around the area is 31C. Latest water vapor imagery shows dry air to the southeas.

Global models has picked up the system and movs it southwest with little intensification.

POTENTIAL FOR TD TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wellington
Gale Warning
12:00 PM NZST April 8 2009
===================================

LOW [995 HPA] FORMER CYCLONE LIN, NEAR 35S 163W MOVING EAST 10KT.
Quoting Patrap:
Heres a decent article on the 2005 canes and the Lightning observed and recorded.

Hurricanes of 2005 were filled with mysterious lightning

The boom of thunder and crackle of lightning generally mean one thing: a storm is coming. Curiously, though, the biggest storms of all, hurricanes, are notoriously lacking in lightning. Hurricanes blow, they rain, they flood, but seldom do they crackle.

Surprise: During the record-setting hurricane season of 2005 three of the most powerful storms--Rita, Katrina, and Emily--did have lightning, lots of it. And researchers would like to know why.

Richard Blakeslee of the Global Hydrology and Climate Center (GHCC) in Huntsville, Alabama, was one of a team of scientists who explored Hurricane Emily using NASA's ER-2 aircraft, a research version of the famous U-2 spy plane. Flying high above the storm, they noted frequent lightning in the cylindrical wall of clouds surrounding the hurricane's eye. Both cloud-to-cloud and cloud-to-ground lightning were present, "a few flashes per minute," says Blakeslee.


No mention of Wilma? The most intense hurricane ever recorded?

Dead end imo. Grasping at straws. Should work on other research on the matter as it is by far the least known. I'm with oz on this one... spend the money elsewhere.

DISCLAIMER: Rights are reserved to change opinion upon further research as this is the first I have heard of this. ;)
Quoting Skyepony:
I've got to agree with Patrap & the research about the lightning. Oz~ Check out this site. Watch the lightning around the world. There certainly is a corilation. What could be studied more is the type if they can tell it. Definately more frequent toward the center. I've noticed when one is deepning quick like Katrina exiting FL far from center is infrequent but really powerful, ground shaking for a long time, deadly cloud to ground. Lightning pretty much dies off about as soon as it's feeling the effects of any land, cool SST or shear that is hindering it.

The research about the dust & volcanos controling SST by 70%, so being the big factor for hurricanes... 2005 was pretty dusty & hot. They dismiss it as a low dust year & it wasn't. Here's a bit from other research..

For the 2005 hurricane season, which broke records in the Atlantic, however, dust activity was moderate, indicating yet another level of potential complexity to the dust-hurricane interactions, which the researchers are continuing to investigate, Evan says. During that year%u2019s hurricane season, the researchers noted an increase in dust from the African coast, and a dearth of hurricanes forming in the middle of the Atlantic. Instead, they %u201Ckind of got pushed closer to the United States,%u201D he says. Therefore, an indirect effect may also occur, in which the dust may dampen storm formation in the middle Atlantic, but not prevent them from forming farther west.


Light reading and good stuff from skyepony.

Quoting homelesswanderer:
Was that a Hurricane? In Oklahoma?
Tropical Storm Erin May Have Become A Hurricane ... Deep Inland

Or to quote the great Jeff Masters, perhaps Erin was a "Thingamabobbercane"!

a href="http://www.thedailygreen.com/environmental-news/blogs/hurricanes-storms/oklahoma-
cyclone-55041201" target="_blank">Link

LOL. I know they don't redevelope over land just thought this was interesting.


I watched Faye live, as many did, form her first eye... overland.

Extremely rare, if not unique, though.
Quoting Seastep:


I watched Faye live, as many did, form her first eye... overland.

Extremely rare, if not unique, though.


It could be said that Humberto of 2007 intensified over "land". The quotes are due to the fact that in both S Fla and that piece of SE TX there surface area is as much water as land...pseudolandia (wasn't there an 80s song about it?)
Hey! We're talking about hurricane season again. Whoo hoo. Florida really needs rain. Hurricanes bring rain and so do tropical storms, which are of course better because they bring less destruction...Right now, we're in danger of explosive wildfires. Wind is up, humidity down and the vegetation is very dry.
What impressed me last year was how the landfalls were predicted as if the meterologists were air traffic comptrollers (?controllers?), guiding a plane in for a landing! The only difference was, they were predicting the land fall of a hurricane, not planning it! The biggest surprise last year was Galveston. Could have been an incredible disaster on the barrier island. I do not know to this day the number of people lost, nor why there weren't more!
Quoting atmoaggie:


It could be said that Humberto of 2007 intensified over "land". The quotes are due to the fact that in both S Fla and that piece of SE TX there surface area is as much water as land...pseudolandia (wasn't there an 80s song about it?)


True.
Great stuff tonight all... still reading up! :)
Quoting atmoaggie:


It could be said that Humberto of 2007 intensified over "land". The quotes are due to the fact that in both S Fla and that piece of SE TX there surface area is as much water as land...pseudolandia (wasn't there an 80s song about it?)

Yes I watched Faye develope over land this past summer too. I happened upon a weather channel show yesterday and I thought that the guide was mistaken when it read "Tropical Storm Erin rescues" And they were showing Oklahoma. So that brought Erin to mind.

And I'd have to agree SE TX is a lot of water. LOL. I remember watching Humberto out the back door window with rain hitting me as it blew horizontally thru the door. This lightening discussion got me and my husband thinking. There mustve been some lightning during Humberto because we caught glimpses of the trees bending over and scraping the house after the transformers blew.
We didnt think about it at the time though so I can't swear to it. We were a little taken by surprise at that moment. LOL.
Fay was one werid storm got more rain from her in 3 hours when she was 500 miles up state then when she first land falled in FLA.
... i burned the blog rofl!!!
In the case of Hurricane Humberto, a moderate Category 1 hurricane produced large amounts of CG lightning upon its landfall. Much of the increase in reflectivity heights can be attributed to the increased frictional convergence at landfall and differences in lightning frequency, location, and polarity can indicate the storm’s convection strength. As the storm continued moving inland on September 13, 2007, the storm’s energy source of warm, moist oceanic fluxes no longer existed, and the storm diminished. This study provides evidence for the relationships between dBZ heights, CG lightning frequencies, and convection.


Ok. I found this from a study on the internet. I'm trying to wrap my very unscientific mind around this very scientific subject. And I'm exhausted. LOL. Good night maybe some of this will make more since to yall.

Link
Quoting homelesswanderer:
In the case of Hurricane Humberto, a moderate Category 1 hurricane produced large amounts of CG lightning upon its landfall. Much of the increase in reflectivity heights can be attributed to the increased frictional convergence at landfall and differences in lightning frequency, location, and polarity can indicate the storm’s convection strength. As the storm continued moving inland on September 13, 2007, the storm’s energy source of warm, moist oceanic fluxes no longer existed, and the storm diminished. This study provides evidence for the relationships between dBZ heights, CG lightning frequencies, and convection.


Ok. I found this from a study on the internet. I'm trying to wrap my very unscientific mind around this very scientific subject. And I'm exhausted. LOL. Good night maybe some of this will make more since to yall.

Link


Something stranger is that last year, Gustav beat out Humberto by 2 hours in terms of TD to Hurricane.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number SEVENTEEN
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE JADE
10:00 AM Réunion April 8 2009
=================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Jade (987 hPa) located at 21.9S 49.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The storm is reported as moving south at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Gale-Force Winds
=====================
20 NM radius from the center, extending up to 100 NM within the eastern semi-circle

Near Gale-Force Winds
=======================
90 NM radius from the center, extending up to 300 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 22.6S 48.5E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
24 HRS: 23.2S 47.6E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION sur Terre)
48 HRS: 23.2S 47.6E - 25 knots (PERTURBATION Tropicale)
72 HRS: 29.0S 51.6E - 30 knots (Devenant EXTRATROPICAL)

Additional Information
======================
Quikscat data at 0230z confirm maximum winds at 45 kbots. On present fix has been made lat with CC MET-7 imagery.

Under the steering influence of the mid level subtropical ridge located in the east and the rebuild of the subtropical high south to Madagascar, tracks is expected to curve more southwestward within the next 36 hours. On this track, system should make a third landfall tonight within the area of Farafangana.

Friday, a deep mid latitude trough arrives from the southwest and Jade should be embedded within the northwesterly flow ahead of the trough. By that time, system should on a weakening trend within a westerly sheared environment and a possible interaction with land. Extratropical transition could be on the way Saturday as the system will begin to accelerate towards the southeast.
India Meteorological Department

Tropical Cyclone Outlook (0600z 08APR)
========================================
Convective clouds are seen over parts of southeast Arabian Sea, Comorin Area, southeast Bay of Bengal, and south Andaman Sea

Chief Meteorological Forecast (0000z 08APR)
==============================
A low pressure area is likely to form over south Bay of Bengal around 11th April.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE FIFTEEN-F
18:00 PM FST April 8 2009
==========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 15F (1005 hPa) located at 7.5S 163.0E is reported as moving slowly. Position POOR based on multisatellite infrared imagery with animation and latest Quikscat Pass.

The system lies embedded along a monsoonal trough with low level circulation center difficult to locate. Convection has been persistent for the last 24 hours, but with no real organization. CIMSS indicates the system lies in a low shear environment under a diffluent region. Sea surface temperatures is around 31C. Latest water vapor imagery shows dry air to the southeast. Global models has picked up the system and moves it southwest with little intensification.

POTENTIAL FOR TD15F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.
waking up to 55 degrees -- it's spring break -- all males are hibernating this morning...the sounds of silence and dry,cold air snoring........
Patrap - nice clip from the BigEasy -- Post 125 -- really fascinating -- thanks for highlighting that.. thanks Skye..

wondering whats the dust level looking like this year???? Is Redoubt putting anything or enough in the atmosphere that would affect this side of the planet?
Quoting homelesswanderer:

Yes I watched Faye develope over land this past summer too. I happened upon a weather channel show yesterday and I thought that the guide was mistaken when it read "Tropical Storm Erin rescues" And they were showing Oklahoma. So that brought Erin to mind.

And I'd have to agree SE TX is a lot of water. LOL. I remember watching Humberto out the back door window with rain hitting me as it blew horizontally thru the door. This lightening discussion got me and my husband thinking. There mustve been some lightning during Humberto because we caught glimpses of the trees bending over and scraping the house after the transformers blew.
We didnt think about it at the time though so I can't swear to it. We were a little taken by surprise at that moment. LOL.



Speaking of storms restrengthening over land Hurricane Charlie of 2004 did it in NC. He went from a 70mph tropical storm one advisory back to a 80mph hurricane. The local forecasters thought it was the fact that most everything around there was flooded because of recent heavy rains and he used that.
41 here this morning-what
Good Morning... interesting 2009 forecasts. Unfortunately we'll have to wait until mid to late May in order to get a better feeling on how La Nina behaves. Currently I'm leaning closer to the TSR forecast due to trade wind strength and SSTs on EPAC (Near/Close to S. America coast)... but patience is the key and we'll see by next month.
144. WxLogic 6:58 AM CDT on April 08, 2009
And if we don't have enough dust to keep those SST"s down...well, the Atlantic will become a heated pool very quickly
G'mornin' all. I took a break for the winter.
Nice to see a bunch of the regulars are still here.

Hey Brian! When we goin to Dewberrys?
147. CeBas
The season will begin in late June/early July and end in late October.
Morning all,

Yep Doug, I hear you on the much needed winter hiatus. Guess it is about time to start crawling out of blog hibernation though. Another couple of months and it will be time to have eyes glued to the big drinks surrounding us.
Quoting surfmom:
waking up to 55 degrees -- it's spring break -- all males are hibernating this morning...the sounds of silence and dry,cold air snoring........


Spring break.. 55... Florida... those do not compute
Good Morning all: [Heya PensacolaDoug!

Well, since it's only about 50 days until hurricane season, I thought I'd give ya'll a link to my GOES East Infrared Hurricane Sector animation that was compiled for the months of July - September 2008.

I just watched it again for the first time in months. You've got Dolly, Faye, Gustav and Ike plus alot of other cool weather features during those months.

Enjoy!
Morning all! Been in hibernation for awhile, but I was just curious to see what was being said about Dr. Gray's forecast.

This coming hurricane season will be my third living in the panhandle, so I don't think I'll be quite as nervous. I've learned a lot from you all and I just wanted to say thanks. About the only thing we can do is be prepared and with all of your suggestions, I think we will be ready for anything that heads our way (if any).

Chuck
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Hey Brian! When we goin to Dewberrys?


Amy and the kids just got back from P'cola last week. They went on spring break. I had to stay home with the dogs, but I took the time to get my hurricane gear ready for my testing this coming May.

I wish I could be fishin' with ya right now off of Dewberry's point.

For everyone else, so you know...the Dewberry's lived on a point that faced Pensacola Bay to the east. Hurricane Ivan destroyed their home and they never rebuilt. Some weeks after the storm, and blocks away from the Dewberry's, someone found a picture of me and Doug that was taken by Mrs. Dewberry. Doug gave me the picture this past February, and then just two weeks later, Mrs. Dewberry died.

It's been a rough winter...I'd like to see a smooth sailin' summer.
Complete Blog Refresh, with New Weather/CritterCam
Mirror Site
Current Home weather station data.

Daily Area of Interest
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I declare it preseason Hurricane forecasting time!
Alright. A few questions, please answer if you wish.
1) When will Ana Form? (my vote 5-28-09)
2) How many storms will there me (my vote 15)
3) How many Hurricanes and Majors do we get? (5/2)
4) What place is most at risk this year? (My vote, Caribbean or East coast)
5) In an off chance, will we see a Category 5 this year? (My vote, possibly and if there is I hope its a fish, and someone was bound to ask the question :D)

I think this years going to prove similar to 2007.

6-15
13
7/3
East Coast
40% of cat 5
the past couple of years,a lot of people put the east coast at a higher risk,which may be true,one gets the feeling we're due.It all comes down to where the A/B high sets up and how strong it gets.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Spring break.. 55... Florida... those do not compute



don't feel to bad for us,we'll be lucky if we get temps like that next october!!!!...and oh yea,its 70degrees already!!!!!
It'll be in the 80s by Wed., Thurs. this week (and clear) so don't feel too sorry for the spring breakers!
hold the phone stop the clocks



40% of a cat 5????



thats a little high dont you think???



i think any where from 2% to 10% ch of a cat 5
Quoting Tazmanian:
hold the phone stop the clocks



40% of a cat 5????



thats a little high dont you think???



i think any where from 2% to 10% ch of a cat 5


I know Taz, although I do have a strange feeling this year for a Hurricane Like dean running through the Caribbean.
The Masters Golf Tournment Forecast could be an interesting final round.

http://tampaspinsweather.webs.com/apps/blog/show/761024-masters-golf-tourney-forecast-
Quoting Tazmanian:
hold the phone stop the clocks



40% of a cat 5????



thats a little high dont you think???



i think any where from 2% to 10% ch of a cat 5


We'll have to keep on our toes for that!
chance of a cat 5 this year is about 60%,I believe we're in a years long trend of stronger hurricanes,not more TC's in general!!!

the sst's seem a bit warm for this time of year?????
Quoting Tazmanian:
hold the phone stop the clocks



40% of a cat 5????



thats a little high dont you think???



i think any where from 2% to 10% ch of a cat 5


I don't think we'll have one. Even throughout history, Cat 5s aren't exactly a dime a dozen.

In the first eight years of the current AMO period, we only saw one Cat 5 (Mitch). Course, then we saw 8 in 5 years... but feeling confident there won't be one.

Still, any storm in the wrong area is bad enough.
Cyclone kills three, leaves 800 homeless

Article from: Agence France-Presse

From correspondents in Antananarivo

April 08, 2009

THREE people were killed and 800 made homeless by tropical cyclone Jade on the Indian Ocean island nation of Madagascar, the authorities said overnight.

"Two children and their mother died when their house collapsed" in a northern neighbourhood of the capital Antananarivo, Madagascar's disaster management authority said.

Jade made landfall yesterday in the northeastern region of the vast island and has now left Madagascar, but the heavy rains it left in its trail heightened fears of serious floods.

Madagascar's cyclone season is due to end soon and had not caused any victims so far this year, whereas 42 people were killed in 2007 and at least 150 the previous year.
Spring break.. 55... Florida... those do not compute

Yes, I know what you're talking about. I am in South Florida and it was 47 degrees the other day (broke the record by the way). Too cold to go to the beach.
Quoting weatherblog:
Spring break.. 55... Florida... those do not compute

Yes, I know what you're talking about. I am in South Florida and it was 47 degrees the other day (broke the record by the way). Too cold to go to the beach.


Ya it's not suppose to be this cold here in April LOL.
Any of the prediction centers say anything of Floridas proneness to storms this year?
my prediction a TD forms every other day and hits S Fla!!!!!

with 14 other named storms with a few hurricanes spliced between with a few being majors.
Quoting Vortex95:
my prediction a TD forms every other day and hits S Fla!!!!!

with 14 other named storms with a few hurricanes spliced between with a few being majors.


More like, a TD hits Florida every month? lol
it be a joke :)
Quoting Vortex95:
Any of the prediction centers say anything of Floridas proneness to storms this year?
Quoting Vortex95:
Any of the prediction centers say anything of Floridas proneness to storms this year?


CSU said in its April Forecast:

PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:
1)
Entire U.S. coastline - 54% (average for last century is 52%)
2)
U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 32% (average for last century is 31%)
3)
Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 31% (average for last century is 30%)
4)
Average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean.

In general storm terms:

Florida plus East Coast (Regions 5-11):
52% (50%) for TS hit.
46% (44%) for hurricane hit.
32% (31%) for major hurricane hit.
63% (61%) for any hurricane hit.
82% (81%) for any storm hit.

The averages for the last few decades are in brackets.

The table including this information, as well as for the entire US as well as specifically for the Gulf Coast, can be seen on page 22 of the above link.

However, this is still basically a guess. Doesn't matter if it's 1% or 99%, a chance is a chance.
172. Thanks well nothing left to do but wait if the last few seasons serve as a bench mark we may have a mid to late may storm. But we shall see.
Doesn't matter if it's 1% or 99%, a chance is a chance.

^^ thats what she said xD.

bbl.
How is everyone doing? What does anyone think about the current naming system for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic? I know this is probably far-fetched and will likely never happen, but I think it would be better if we named storms like they do in the West Pacific. In that way every name would get used equally. For example, if we currently did that in the Atlantic, the last storm last year was Paloma, so the first storm this year would be Rene. This would solve the problem about having to use the Greek alphabet to name the 22nd storm of the season. They have done that in the West Pacific for a while now and have never had a problem with it.

AP Newsbreak: Obama looks at climate engineering

Apr 8 10:55 AM US/Eastern
By SETH BORENSTEIN
AP Science Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) - The president's new science adviser said Wednesday that global warming is so dire, the Obama administration is discussing radical technologies to cool Earth's air.
John Holdren told The Associated Press in his first interview since being confirmed last month that the idea of geoengineering the climate is being discussed. One such extreme option includes shooting pollution particles into the upper atmosphere to reflect the sun's rays. Holdren said such an experimental measure would only be used as a last resort.

"It's got to be looked at," he said. "We don't have the luxury of taking any approach off the table."

Holdren outlined several "tipping points" involving global warming that could be fast approaching. Once such milestones are reached, such as complete loss of summer sea ice in the Arctic, it increases chances of "really intolerable consequences," he said.

Twice in a half-hour interview, Holdren compared global warming to being "in a car with bad brakes driving toward a cliff in the fog."

At first, Holdren characterized the potential need to technologically tinker with the climate as just his personal view. However, he went on to say he has raised it in administration discussions.

Holdren, a 65-year-old physicist, is far from alone in taking geoengineering more seriously. The National Academy of Science is making climate tinkering the subject of its first workshop in its new multidiscipline climate challenges program. The British parliament has also discussed the idea.

The American Meteorological Society is crafting a policy statement on geoengineering that says "it is prudent to consider geoengineering's potential, to understand its limits and to avoid rash deployment."

Good afternoon all. The wx in Buenos Aires is spring-like and lovely and to my delight I can still speak Spanish. This is disaster related as often we have people caught in an area who do not speak English (a situation comes to mind where some workersw were picking tomatoes as a fire approached, the loudspeaker notcies were all in English, barely got the workers out in time when someone noticed they didn't understand the announcements So for all of you who love your low cost fruits and veggies, remember, somebody is out there way below min wage making them available to you. I'm in the tropics, flew across Amazon jungle, Andes mountains, Platte river tributaries, and I, the perpetual five year old with nose pressed against the candy store window was mesmerized. Hope things calm down at home - ccause I'm on time off with hubby with no diasstr work till end of May - so please stop the floods, tornadoes, hurricanes, earthquakes, landslides, solar storms and comets at least till then. I'm hopping about with a walker so i can see everything I want. It really helps back and knees. I'll drop in again when the report on the full moon at Iguazu Falls comes in (and I'll be there). Hope it's as fabulous as reported. By for now!
Ok maybe 40% is being a little to high but recently cat fives occur about every other year if not consistently, also many people are comparing this season to 07 which had 2 cat 5s call me crazy but I'll stay with my 40%
this is my wifes first year living in south florida, I've lived down here 7 years now.. We live less than a mile from the beach and She's scared to death lol She's originally from chicago.. I'm trying to convince her its not as bad as it seems, that being prepared is the key.. She's just not buying it lol
i'll give you the 40% of a cat 5 but only 10% of land fall.. I'll make my prediction that 75% of named storms will be for the fish :)
Greetings all.
Quoting all4hurricanes:
Ok maybe 40% is being a little to high but recently cat fives occur about every other year if not consistently, also many people are comparing this season to 07 which had 2 cat 5s call me crazy but I'll stay with my 40%


I'm not so sure about that. Although it's far too early to really say, Cat 5s seem to occur in groups.

Going from 1947 onwards (When radar came in, first hurricane under radar I *think* was in 1946.)

1947-51: 'Fort Lauderdale' (47), Dog (50), Easy (51).

Then Janet as an outlier in 55. (Break of 4, 3 years, or a break of 7.)

1958-1961: Cleo (58), Donna & Ethel (60 - NB: Disregard the fact that Ethel may not have been a Cat 5.), Carla & Hattie (61).

(Break of 6.)

1967-1971: Beulah (67), Camille (69), Edith (71).

(Break of 6.)

1977-1980: Anita (77), David (79), Allen (80).

(Break of 8.)

1988-1992: Gilbert (88), Hugo (89), Andrew (92)

(Break of 6, 5 or a break of 11.)
Mitch is another outlier here in '98.

2003-2007: Isabel (03), Ivan (04), Emily/Katrina/Rita & Wilma (05), Dean & Felix (07).

Furthermore, given the 'reason' for cyclones to exist - transport heat from the tropics to the poles - the planet wouldn't want the poles or the tropics to be too heated/cooled (considering the stronger the hurricane, the more upwelling of heat), respectively...?

Yes, aware that Mitch/Janet don't seem to correlate with this. Not necessarily saying there's a cycle... but each group of Cat5s occur within a period of 5 years or so. The break between these last around 6, it seems. (The 8 during the 80s maybe down to the peak in the negative AMO..?)

I may be reading too much into it, but it seems a little too neatly compiled for other factors such as ENSO to be involved here on a major basis.

But regardless, given the historical tendency before of Cat 5 'seasons' are usually 5 of breadth and a 6 year gap, I'm inclined to think it's possible we'll have a break from category 5s until perhaps 2012/13.

Something to think about.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number NINETEEN
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE JADE
22:00 PM Réunion April 8 2009
=================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Jade (994 hPa) located at 22.0S 49.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 36 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The storm is reported as quasi-stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale-Force Winds
=====================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 90 NM in the southeastern semi-circle

Near Gale-Force Winds
=======================
100 NM radius from the center, extending up to 180 NM in the southeastern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 22.5S 49.5E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION Tropicale)
24 HRS: 23.7S 49.8E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION Tropicale)
48 HRS: 26.6S 52.1E - 30 knots (Devenant EXTRATROPICAL)
72 HRS: 33.5S 56.9E - 30 knots (Depression EXTRATROPICAL)

Additional Information
======================
The system is almost stationary due to the subtropical highs in the south. The northwesterly vertical wind shear has clearly increased during the last hours. Convection is swept in the southeastern quadrant of the circulation. The system is expected to go on weakening undergoing this strong vertical wind shear, and tracking over cooler sea surface temperatures, tracking slowly southwards. Then evacuate with the next trough up to 48 hours becoming extratropical.
The warm-up of the GOM is starting...


Conditions at 42001 as of
(1:50 pm CDT)
1850 GMT on 04/08/2009

Wind Direction (WDIR): S ( 190 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 1.9 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 3.9 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 2.3 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec
Average Period (APD): 4.6 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 30.14 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.05 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 67.3 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 76.3 °F
Quoting stillwaiting:



don't feel to bad for us,we'll be lucky if we get temps like that next october!!!!...and oh yea,its 70degrees already!!!!!


I was debating whether or not to go outside in swim shorts this morning in SE LA (34 F) in hopes that I would be cold for a few months, rather than sweating. Decided against it, but did also consider one of Press' bikinis.
174. Well its a nice idea one that was likely thought of before but it is one that could be looked at. However, NHC is very strict and will likely not change the system. I for one am fine with it. Getting to the Greek alhpabet is a once every 50 years occurance (factored in w global warming).
181. There does seem to be a pattern to when cat 5's develop. Im not exprianced enough to say why or if it is 100% certain.
181. 2012/2013 WHY 2012!!!!!!!!!!! :P.
NHC's really gearing up too.

Test floaters all over the place:

Link
Quoting Seastep:
NHC's really gearing up too.

Test floaters all over the place:

Link


NHC has nothing to do with those test floaters the current forcaster on duty at SSD has chosen to run some test which actually is quite normal.
Quoting Seastep:
NHC's really gearing up too.

Test floaters all over the place:

Link


You mean SSD is gearing up.

"The Satellite Services Division of the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) provides real time access to satellite data and products for the public and government."
Ok Ok ;)
SSD is running a few tests as there trying out there (flash loop) capability.
I've seen a test floater up here and there before, but not so many. Guess I've just never been there at the right time to see it.

But, of course they'll test stuff.

What's "flash loop?"
Quoting Vortex95:
Any of the prediction centers say anything of Floridas proneness to storms this year?
iam expecting a bit of sub tropical activity to dev early in the season maybe by end of april early may as we slowly get in to the summer pattern mostly along n cen gulf and east gom near west fla then some more at the end of season over nw carb./ west atlantic
196. DDR
Greetings everyone, from Trinidad.We had a rainy day yesterday and this morning,1.5 inches at my location,judging from the wind shift and african dust this may well be our first tropical wave.
TS affecting India
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE FIFTEEN-F
9:00 AM FST April 9 2009
==============================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 15F (1005 hPa) located at 7.3S 163.1E is reported as slow moving. Position POOR based on multisatellite infrared/visible imagery with animation and latest Quikscat Pass.

The system lies embedded along a monsoonal trough. Recent Quikscat Pass depicts a broad area of low level cyclonic circulation. Deep convection is mostly associated with a convergence zone to the north of 15F but no real organization. CIMMS indicates the system lies in a low shear environment under a diffluent region. Sea surface temperatures is around 31C. Latest water vapor imagery shows dry air to the southeast. Most global models has picked up the system and moves it southwes with little intensification.

POTENTIAL FOR TD15F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.
Beautiful here in Lake Worth..does anyone know if any record low temperatures were set in Fla. this morning?
Got down to the lower 30's and mid to upper 20's today in central GA. Yikes! I thought we were over that 2 months ago!!
Quoting Clickerous:
this is my wifes first year living in south florida, I've lived down here 7 years now.. We live less than a mile from the beach and She's scared to death lol She's originally from chicago.. I'm trying to convince her its not as bad as it seems, that being prepared is the key.. She's just not buying it lol
Congratulations on your excellent choice of a highly intelligent wife! (grin) We lived in south Florida for some years and I loved it. Now becaue of disaster work I spend at least a month a year there and guess what. I still love it.
Quoting Clickerous:
this is my wifes first year living in south florida, I've lived down here 7 years now.. We live less than a mile from the beach and She's scared to death lol She's originally from chicago.. I'm trying to convince her its not as bad as it seems, that being prepared is the key.. She's just not buying it lol


The prices to live in paradise lol.
Update on Buenos Aires - So far itinerary includes six hour nap, husband still snoring, I'm eating left over food from airplane snack pack, Tommorrow is another day!
Quoting Clickerous:
this is my wifes first year living in south florida, I've lived down here 7 years now.. We live less than a mile from the beach and She's scared to death lol She's originally from chicago.. I'm trying to convince her its not as bad as it seems, that being prepared is the key.. She's just not buying it lol
She may feel that she has a bit more control over the situation, if she has specific things to do to prepare. I would let her read patrap's Hurricane Preparation blog and then turn her loose to plan for the season.

ADDITION: Remember the blog awhile back where Masters shows the percentage of deaths due to hurricane, lightning, etc. If memory serves, the vast number of deaths were due to temperature extremes - heat during the summer, cold during the winter. Chicago has suffered both with deaths. As long as she evacuates when she is told to, her chance of dying from weather related phenomenon are probably much greater in Chicago
At 0:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Jade (995 hPa) located at 22.6S 49.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The storm is reported as moving south-southeast at 4 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Gale-Force Winds
=====================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 60 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale-Force Winds
=======================
100 NM radius from the center, extending up to 240 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 23.7S 50.2E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION Tropicale)
24 HRS: 25.0S 50.9E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION Tropicale)
48 HRS: 29.6S 54.4E - 40 knots (Devenant EXTRATROPICAL)
72 HRS: 38.0S 59.1E - 40 knots (Depression EXTRATROPICAL)

Additional Information
======================
The system is now tracking slowly south-southeastwards, it is expected to accelerate progressively towards this direction. The northwesterly vertical wind shear has clearly increased, convection is swept in the southeast of the circulation and the low level center is now visible on the northwestern edge of the convection. The system is expected to go on weakening undergoing this strong vertical wind shear, tracking over cooler sea surface temperatures, then evacuate with the next trough up to 48 hours becoming extratropical.
ReliefWEB

Italy: Earthquake - Apr 2009
Updates on Italy affected by the Italy: Earthquake - Apr 2009 emergency. GLIDE No. EQ-2009-000072-ITA

Latest Updates
Operation Blessing International responding to Italy quake

Source: Operation Blessing International

Date: 06 Apr 2009


VIRGINIA BEACH, VA (April 6, 2009) - The humanitarian organization Operation Blessing International is sending its director of international disaster relief, David Darg, to Italy to assist with relief and recovery operations in response to the deadly earthquake that struck central Italy early Monday.

Darg, who for the last year has led the charity's earthquake response in Sichuan Province, China, will arrive in the Italian quake zone late Tuesday and will assess the damage. A first priority will be providing diesel-powered generators to restore clean drinking water to the hardest hit areas.

David Darg has been a part of OBI's team since 2001, providing strategic direction, management and logistical support of Operation Blessing's international disaster relief efforts. His experiences have included aiding war refugees in Sudan, Kenya and Somalia, being one of the few aid workers permitted entry into cyclone-devastated Myanmar, and managing one of OBI's most significant projects to date - the rebuilding of an entire village in Yao Jin, China that was destroyed by an earthquake in 2008.
You know, it always seems to cool down a bit for Mardi Gras and Easter, then, the big warm up starts slowly creeping back into the picture and we are all melting in the smoldering heat by mid-June...So, what I am trying to say is...I sure hope things don't heat up in the tropics this year...I have no faith in Dr. Gray's predictions...
Quoting StormW:
Good evening!

Just here for an invite...for anyone in or close to the Tampa Bay area,interested in good food, and meeting some of the local meteorologists, our chapter WCFLAMS(West Central Florida Chapter of the AMS) is having its annual banquet at the Tampa Yacht Club. If you wish to attend, please visit our website, www.wcflams.org, and click on the "Non Members Banquet Orders" tab for further details.

Thanks!



Hey buddy how you doing?????,I actually have a temp membership and will be paying my first dues to get the full membership before the end of the month,I've also just passed the skywarn stormspotters test recently!!!!,can't attend this banquet because my car is needs tires and I don't want to take it on 75.......see you around,more so when TC season starts back up,I know how busy you are,I didn't realize you were the web admin for our local chapter,how cool!!!!!!
StormW you got mail!
Magnitude 4.5
Date-Time Thursday, April 09, 2009 at 03:14:52 UTC
Thursday, April 09, 2009 at 05:14:52 AM at epicenter

Location 42.412°N, 13.419°E
Depth 5 km (3.1 miles) set by location program
Region CENTRAL ITALY
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Magnitude 4.5
Date-Time Thursday, April 09, 2009 at 03:14:52 UTC
Thursday, April 09, 2009 at 05:14:52 AM at epicenter

Location 42.412°N, 13.419°E
Depth 5 km (3.1 miles) set by location program
Region CENTRAL ITALY


Did you see that large Quake in the Atlantic today....WOW!
SRQ,siesta key to be exact.....right on the beach.even have myself a little view of the GOM from my balcony on the 3rd floor!!!!
More communication, education needed in hurricanes

By JACKIE STONE Associated Press Writer © 2009 The Associated Press
April 8, 2009, 6:53PM


AUSTIN, Texas — Graphics that show the risk of storm surges are just one way officials and emergency responders hope to better prepare themselves and coastal residents for the 2009 hurricane season.

Bill Read, director of the National Hurricane Center, said at the National Hurricane Conference on Wednesday that most coastal residents have a hard time understanding storm surge risk and the center didn't communicate the threat well during Ike, which stormed ashore in Galveston in September.
good night all ,don't forget to color your eggs for easter......does anyone like "fishsticks"????
can anyone recommend a good meteorology book????,with all the basic science of weather,kinda a weather bible of sorts????,if there are any out there.....
thanks storm!!!,good night (for real this time) everyone!!!
Quoting ajcamsmom2:
I have no faith in Dr. Gray's predictions...


I don't have faith in his December and April forecasts, but his May forecasts seem to be much more accurate, since by that time, we have a general idea (usually; there are exceptions, such as 2005, where an average season was predicted, similar to this year, and we had the most active season on record) of what the weather pattern is going to be like throughout a good portion of the hurricane season. This usually includes the most important factor for the season, ENSO. By May, we can usually predict with reasonable accuracy how ENSO will affect the season, barring any rapid and significant changes over the span of just a few months (i.e., 2006's rapid transition to El Nino in September, as well as 2005's transition to weak La Nina conditions during October).
Umm.. come join my 2009 AHS contest for those who are interested in tropical cyclones.

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE FIFTEEN-F
18:00 PM FST April 9 2009
=================================

At 06:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 15F (1004 hPa) located at 8.0S 163.0E is reported as moving slowly. Position POOR based on multispectral infrared imagery with animation and peripheral observations.

The system lies embedded along a monsoonal trough. Deep convection is mostly associated with a convergence zone to the north of 15F with organization has improved slightly. CIMMS indicates the system lies in a low shear environment under a diffluent region. Sea surface temperature is around 31C. Latest water vapor imagery shows dry air to the south. Most global models has picked up the system and moves it southwest with little intensification.

POTENTIAL FOR TD15F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.
tampa ya 5.2.

looks like the North Pacific tried to match it (west of Oregon) with a 4.2.
Quoting Bobbyweather:
Umm.. come join my 2009 AHS contest for those who are interested in tropical cyclones.



Posted.
India Meteorological Department

Chief Meteorological Forecast (0000z 09APR)
==============================
A low pressure area is likely to form over south Bay of Bengal around 12th April.

Tropical Cyclone Outlook (0600z 09APR)
========================================
Convective clouds are seen over parts of southeast Arabian Sea, Comorin Area, south Bay of Bengal, and south Andaman Sea

High Sea Forecast (0900z 09APR)
================================
A trough of low a sea level lies over southwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining Sri Lanka

Quoting KoritheMan:


I don't have faith in his December and April forecasts, but his May forecasts seem to be much more accurate, since by that time, we have a general idea (usually; there are exceptions, such as 2005, where an average season was predicted, similar to this year, and we had the most active season on record) of what the weather pattern is going to be like throughout a good portion of the hurricane season. This usually includes the most important factor for the season, ENSO. By May, we can usually predict with reasonable accuracy how ENSO will affect the season, barring any rapid and significant changes over the span of just a few months (i.e., 2006's rapid transition to El Nino in September, as well as 2005's transition to weak La Nina conditions during October).


Agreed, and things can change in a month. Right now all the models are saying Cool/Warm Neutral.
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a PSWO this morning regarding a severe weather outbreak.
The potential for strong tornadoes will exist this afternoon beginning in southern Kansas:



PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0622 AM CDT THU APR 09 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS...SRN PLAINS AND OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STRONG TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS...SRN
PLAINS...OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS...MID-MS VALLEY AND OZARK REGION

A WELL-DEVELOPED SPRING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY
WILL RESULT IN A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM
SRN KS ACROSS NE OK INTO SW MO AND NW AR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG A WARM FRONT ORIENTED EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK
AREA AND ALONG A COLD FRONT/DRYLINE SWD ACROSS NERN OK AND NW AR.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RETURN NWD INTO THE REGION TODAY
AND A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD BE PRESENT SOUTHEAST OF A
SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT BY MID-AFTERNOON.

WINDS ALOFT WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TODAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL JET MOVES
INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. AS VERTICAL SHEAR
INCREASES...SUPERCELLS WILL BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORNADOES. SOME TORNADOES THAT OCCUR WITH THE MORE INTENSE AND
PERSISTENT SUPERCELLS COULD BE STRONG FIRST BEGINNING IN SRN KS AND
NERN OK EXPANDING SEWD ACROSS NW AR AND SW MO BY EARLY EVENING.

THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER
SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION AND NOAA WEATHER
RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.
ADDITIONALLY...STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING
THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER
TODAY.

..BROYLES/HART/HURLBUT.. 04/09/2009


Photobucket




Suppose to be in the lower 80s in florida for a high, drastic warm up today and tomorrow.
54 degrees now.
post 181 your saying at the we are at the end of a cat 5 cycle but you also theorized that the duration of this supposed cycle is affected by the AMO since were close to the peak I guess the cat 5 duration might last 1-2 years longer so I'll stay with 40%
Check this out. Technology is changing everything. Here is a link to the India/Pakistan border earthquake from today. Zoom in. You can see the epicenter location noted and you can actually see a small city in close proximity to it by paning the map accordingly. The city is on the left. Also included is the link to the same for the central Italy quake from a few days ago, city on the right on that one. Amazing, this is public info, think of what is secret! Similar tools were used after Katrina to expedite the assessment of what happened.




If you really want to get a feel for how this Sat stuff works. Look at Zillow.com and put your address in and use the birds eye view. Not only will it tell you how much your house has gone down in price,LoL, you can see things on your property that will open your eyes. I could actually see in my garage and that is only a realestate site.

India/Pak

Italy
Complete Blog Refresh, with New Weather/CritterCam
Mirror Site
Current Home weather station data.

Daily Area of Interest
Oh I see...you just pop in to try and filch some cash!
LOL

Hi StormW!

78 degrees and not a cloud in the sky here on the beach in sarasota........there goes the cool weather until next fall(waving towards the North).....
i can't ask for a more beautiful morning here in Delray beach fl! Figures since my time off is over and i go back to work :(

Fla. lawmakers 'waking up' to insurance failures

State lawmakers are abandoning long-held promises to lower rates for hurricane policies -- even amid the prospect of stronger storms -- in favor of rapid hikes to rescue public insurance programs that could sink, financially speaking, during the looming cyclone season.
Haiti's hurricanes caused $1 billion in damage

By EDITH M. LEDERER – 2 days ago

UNITED NATIONS (AP) — Haiti's impoverished economy has been battered by $1 billion in damage from last year's hurricanes and a drop in money transfers from Haitians working abroad caused by the global financial crisis, the top U.N. envoy to the Caribbean nation said Monday.

Ahead of next week's donors conference in Washington, Hedi Annabi told the U.N. Security Council that continued humanitarian aids is critical to ensure many Haitians get enough food and are able to send their children to school.

He said international assistance also is needed to generate immediate jobs as well as longer-term development to help Haiti escape its plight as the Western Hemisphere's poorest country.
warmed up a good 20 degrees in the past 2 hours. 71.3 now
Quoting CybrTeddy:
warmed up a good 20 degrees in the past 2 hours. 71.3 now


Is it safe to assume you are logging everyones predictions so we can declare a winner in December ? BTW, what is the prize ? :¬)
AT 9 AM CDT... THE DRYLINE EXTENDED FROM NEAR ALVA TO WATONGA TO LAWTON
OKLAHOMA TO SEYMOUR TEXAS... AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE... AND MOSTLY
SUNNY TO THE WEST OF THE DRYLINE. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
THIS MORNING AS THE DRYLINE MOVES EAST.





Did anyone participate in the Hurricane Futures Market? Not sure if it still exists, but a very interesting "pay for prediction" senario done by a few schools.
Link

For the record, I am not the author of the posted comment at the bottom of the atricle. Albeit, I am not sure if I dissagree with it.
Good morning all

It has been interesting to see the effect that the recent cold front has had on the SST in the NW Caribbean. The water temps had been rising steadily before it but in the wake of the front's passage a significant " cool pool " has shown up in the NW Caribbean.

Given that the front did not have a cold wind in our area I can only assume that the wave action caused some upwelling.This early in the year warm water does not extend to any appreciable depth and this type of quick surface temp response to a late season front underscores that.

This cool pool will probably disappear in the next few days as stable hot conditions prevail.

Cooler than normal Atlantic water temps has been given as a reason for the reduced forecast by the Colorado Team but this far out and with several months before the peak season in which water temps can recover that factor may not necessarily play an inhibiting role.

I personally think that this hurricane season is going to be extremely quiet. I think less activity than 06. Does anyone agree with me?
Hey kman.

How's your winter been?
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning all

It has been interesting to see the effect that the recent cold front has had on the SST in the NW Caribbean. The water temps had been rising steadily before it but in the wake of the front's passage a significant " cool pool " has shown up in the NW Caribbean.

Given that the front did not have a cold wind in our area I can only assume that the wave action caused some upwelling.This early in the year warm water does not extend to any appreciable depth and this type of quick surface temp response to a late season front underscores that.

This cool pool will probably disappear in the next few days as stable hot conditions prevail.

Cooler than normal Atlantic water temps has been given as a reason for the reduced forecast by the Colorado Team but this far out and with several months before the peak season in which water temps can recover that factor may not necessarily play an inhibiting role.




Kman one factor in Atlantic SST is the prevailing winds. With LaNina or even Nuetral conditions, the lack of weaker than normal Westerly winds would tend to create an environment of higher SST's. We will see!
245. hurricanelover236 3:18 PM GMT on April 09, 2009

Other than speculating, one cannot say with any degree of certainty this far out what the season will be like IMO. This is clear from the limited skill of a long range forecast even by the " experts "

Much can change between now and late July when the season tends to get going. In particular, if we see neutral conditions or a weak La Nina an above average season would be probable, especially since water temps in the GOM and the Caribbean will likely be quite high regardless of what they are in the open Atlantic.

Under such a scenario, while systems might be weaker before entering the Caribbean or GOM they could easily intensify quickly with the aid of high TCHP in these regions.
Just curious -
What is the strangest item on your hurricane shelf or in your hurricane kit?

Throughout the winter/spring, I collect books to go on my shelf (working in a used book store, makes it easy - I just look on our quarter table). Just good old trashy novels, mysteries, thrillers etc - not reading 'War and Peace' ; ) Folks just shake their heads.

I am hoping one of you beat me in hurricane supplies weirdness - would love to show them that I am not the only one.
Quoting kmanislander:
245. hurricanelover236 3:18 PM GMT on April 09, 2009

Other than speculating, one cannot say with any degree of certainty this far out what the season will be like IMO. This is clear from the limited skill of a long range forecast even by the " experts "

Much can change between now and late July when the season tends to get going. In particular, if we see neutral conditions or a weak La Nina an above average season would be probable, especially since water temps in the GOM and the Caribbean will likely be quite high regardless of what they are in the open Atlantic.

Under such a scenario, while systems might be weaker before entering the Caribbean or GOM they could easily intensify quickly with the aid of high TCHP in these regions.


In the case of Bertha, Low TCHP may not be always an inhibiting factor.
246. Seastep 3:19 PM GMT on April 09, 2009

For some reason my " quote " function does not work.

Our winter started out wetter than usual with unseasonably cool temps until about 10 days ago. In March we had temps of 68 at 6 pm which is almost unheard of. The cool snap lasted for weeks at a time and it has only been in the past few days that typical day time temps for this time of year have appeared.
Hi Tampa

You are correct. Neutral conditions or weak La Nina versus a weak El Nino may be the single most important factor this year in determining how the season unfolds
What is the strangest item on your hurricane shelf or in your hurricane kit?

I don't have anything too strange.
I have one item I hope I never need to use...but am glad that I have...a suture kit.

Link
I have a feeling we are going to have to look closer to home for development this season. A lot of the long-range dynamic computer forecast models show a less active ITCZ and cooler SSTs near the coast of Africa.
In Southeast La. one keeps an AX or other means of escaping to ones roof from the Attic..in their Hurricane Prep Kit.


NHC recommends an ax



How long until we see stormkat?
251. kmanislander

Mine's not working either.

Same here, unusually cool winter. Unfortunately, I wish ours was wetter. Haven't seen real rain in quite some time.
256. Well I don't like that what if you live next to Lizzie Bordin?
Ouote feature running OK with FF3
255. That could be both good and bad in some ways Drak?
Quoting Drakoen:
I have a feeling we are going to have to look closer to home for development this season. A lot of the long-range dynamic computer forecast models show a less active ITCZ and cooler SSTs near the coast of Africa.



Those two factors would, if they materialize , put a damper on the Cape Verde season. As a follow on from that, if we get few systems of any strength entering the Caribbean the water temps and TCHP here could reach very high levels and provide ideal conditions for rapid intensification of anything forming close to home.

Looks like an interesting season on tap.
Quoting Vortex95:
255. That could be both good and bad in some ways Drak?


Good as in the fact less Cape Verdes,
bad that they will develop close to home like in 2005,
Got the " quote " feature to work finally. Luck of the draw I guess
Quoting Vortex95:
255. That could be both good and bad in some ways Drak?



closer to home=less preperation time
does anyone like fishsticks????
Well I have to get back to work now but will check in from time to time as we get closer to June 1st.

Have a great day. 4 day weekend here for Easter !
Quoting CybrTeddy:
How long until we see stormkat?


Biting my upper and lower lips......HUM!
263. Will more close to home develop.
Morning Folks.....Overall SST's in the MDR will always hit the magical 80 degree mark once the Summer hits in earnest every year (they are usually a "given" come July and August)...Agree that the ENSO conditions, during the peak of the season, per historical climatology, will play a big role so I think that the current issue on the table (given the spread between Gray and TSR, as well as every one else who will chime in in the coming months with typically inaccurate early season predictions)is whether we will have an average or slightly above average year this season...Too early to narrow down right now and certainly impossible to accurately predict several months out.....Only time will tell
btw how do you do quotes I do not see anything that allows me to use quotes, ?
Considering the unconsidered, I think Patrap popped this one up prior, what impact on our season could a significant volcanic event produce. IE, Alaska and South America with some potential for this to occur? I would assume there would be some data avialable relating to any potential correlation.




Seasonal Hurricane Prediction Scientist
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Just curious -
What is the strangest item on your hurricane shelf or in your hurricane kit?

Throughout the winter/spring, I collect books to go on my shelf (working in a used book store, makes it easy - I just look on our quarter table). Just good old trashy novels, mysteries, thrillers etc - not reading 'War and Peace' ; ) Folks just shake their heads.

I am hoping one of you beat me in hurricane supplies weirdness - would love to show them that I am not the only one.


An espresso percolator for use on my little Coleman backpacking stove. 1/3 espresso, 2/3 hot water makes a terrific cup-o-joe in a camping-type environment.

Have to support that particular chemical dependence...
Considering the unconsidered, I think Patrap popped this one up prior, what impact on our season could a significant volcanic event produce


Not I.

I dont do the Global Picture with all the fancy Ash Plume forcings.

That a climatology thing.

Im a GOM Man myself.

CFS shear forecast

Peak season might actually be interesting.
Quoting Drakoen:
CFS shear forecast

Peak season might actually be interesting.


I am kinda glad that those things do not have all that much skill...after looking at that one, anyway. Hope that hopes true.
Drak just want to make sure red= high wind shear?
Quoting atmoaggie:


I am kinda glad that those things do not have all that much skill...after looking at that one, anyway. Hope that hopes true.


I wouldn't mind the first half of the season being blasted with shear. You're right they don't have much skill but is something to look at.
Quoting Vortex95:
Drak just want to make sure red= high wind shear?


It means anomalously higher wind shear.
alright but this a prediction of events to happend 4-5 months from now so I won't put to much into it. For now :/.
Quoting Ossqss:
Considering the unconsidered, I think Patrap popped this one up prior, what impact on our season could a significant volcanic event produce. IE, Alaska and South America with some potential for this to occur? I would assume there would be some data avialble relating to any potential correlation.




I was reading this info from D'Aleo a couple days ago.


In the negative phase, the jet stream winds buckled and forced cold air south from Canada into the eastern United States and west from Siberia into Europe. They also favored a cooling of middle and higher latitudes the year round of that atmosphere and a weakening of the summer monsoon in India and Africa.

I guess we'll see what happens and if there is any effect:


Mt. Redoubt Eruptions – What Effect If Any on the Summer? Winter?

Link
Quoting Patrap:
Considering the unconsidered, I think Patrap popped this one up prior, what impact on our season could a significant volcanic event produce


Not I.

I dont do the Global Picture with all the fancy Ash Plume forcings.

That a climatology thing.

Im a GOM Man myself.



My bad.

I think I am indecisive, but I am really not sure. :)
ossqss - LOL.

For the hurricane supplies, if you have kids, plenty of board games. We have a ton because we're old school like that. No wii, xbox allowed yet. Amazing how many of my kids friends come over that have virtually zero board games.. only the electronic stuff.

They love coming over and playing them.

The kids love it. Whenever we shutter up and/or power goes out, it's like camping and we all play. They think it's cool and, at the same time, alleviates their anxiety.
we have a bunch of board games too, but it would be just my wife and i together, no kids yet.. If we just played board games we would probably come out of the hurricane divorced lol
Hur kit new additions this year

-Rabbit ear antenna
-digital OTA TV signal converter box ( funded $40 by the gov)net $10 cost
-Portable DVD player with inputs for the converter box, used as a monitor
-one 500 watt power inverter
-one deep cycle 120ah battery (pre-charged)
-poof- several days of intermittent news updates to ease the nerves of those who need it.
Having no power is like living in a different world somtimes. Too bad that won't happen anymore, we got a generator that runs off natural gas.
Quoting Seastep:
ossqss - LOL.

For the hurricane supplies, if you have kids, plenty of board games. We have a ton because we're old school like that. No wii, xbox allowed yet. Amazing how many of my kids friends come over that have virtually zero board games.. only the electronic stuff.

They love coming over and playing them.

The kids love it. Whenever we shutter up and/or power goes out, it's like camping and we all play. They think it's cool and, at the same time, alleviates their anxiety.


I don't care how old i get, nothing beats a game of monopoly and screaming at your family to sell the boardwalk. LMAO
Plenty of Parrot food, dehydrated veggies & fruit as well as Jerky (for us as well as the flock). Dry dog and cat chow, plenty of kitty litter. We used a solar/hand powered radio for after Ike. It still works great. Paper towels and toilet paper and disinfecting wipes. Lots of plastic trash bags.
I do remember during Andrew a family friend had no power for a month and a few days so they would come over our house every Sat. for chinese food. We had no power for 2 weeks.

Its hard to imagine having power for slightly over a month though.
Quoting Vortex95:
Having no power is like living in a different world somtimes. Too bad that won't happen anymore, we got a generator that runs off natural gas.


You sound disappointed! Being without power is not a pleasant thing to deal with. Especially in Florida during the summer.
Quoting billsfaninsofla:


You sound disappointed! Being without power is not a pleasant thing to deal with. Especially in Florida during the summer.

Especially when it's hot and humid. Then you stick to everything.
291. I am, I love the heat here actually * I know thats weird* I can't wait for those 90 degree days to roll around again. Its especially nice when we were to open up the windows after an outage (if it was windy of course). Now I'm not saying I like a hot and sticky house (I do not at all) but 5-6 years before we bought the generator we started using the car battery to power the air conditioning. But to sum it up I love the Florida heat as long as it stays outside when im it, I don't want it to follow me inside.
293. Have you seen a doctor lately? That much heat may be getting to your brain a bit. ;)
Typical Floridians lol ;P.
Of course... as I say all this, I live near Houston... and its just as bad here. (I live on the north side of town, so I don't even get the benefit of the sea breeze.
what was the seasonal conditions for 04, 05 versus what was forecasted by Gray and company?

Whats the forecast for SST's for the season as well?

On the hurricane supplies, look to Patrap and Press, they both had some serious pages on that stuff.
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
what was the seasonal conditions for 04, 05 versus what was forecasted by Gray and company?

Whats the forecast for SST's for the season as well?

On the hurricane supplies, look to Patrap and Press, they both had some serious pages on that stuff.


I think 2004 was a neutral enso and a slight El Nino towards the end, 2005 was La Nina. Don't hold me to that i think i might be wrong.
if we have a neutral La Nina, with a below normal season for the Verdes; Combine that with high SSt's near the coast, and depending on the location of the Bermuda High. What does all that mean in terminology that some bloggers here would be better formatted to undestanding?
Just remember that the generator may not be applicable until the storm passes. Sometimes it may take 12-18 hours or longer before you can run it safely.

Additionally, do the math on the consumption with those generators. I have a 4000 watt gas unit that can run 13hours on 4 gallons at half load and a 10,000 watt, used to backfeed my AC unit that uses a gallon an hour. The big boy is only used for the AC and cooking as necessary, the other powers the amenities necessary to keep everyone at peace. Keeping in mind I usually have about 20 evac's from the beach each time.

Load chart if you need it. Link
303. N3EG
My hurricane preparedness kit consists of a house in Washington State. Thingamabobbercane missed us by 250 miles, and those who live where it hit only needed a rake to move the leaves into their neighbor's yard.
Hey Storm!

From CPC this morning...

A majority of model forecasts for the Nino-3.4 region show that once ENSO-neutral conditions are reached, it will continue through the remainder of 2009. Several models indicate La Nina will continue through March-May 2009. Based on current observations, recent trends, and model forecasts, a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions is expected during April 2009.

Full update HERE
India Meteorological Department

Chief Meteorological Forecast (0900z 09APR)
==============================
Numerical Weather Prediction models suggest that a low pressure area is likely to form over southwest Bay of Bengal around 11th leading to increase in rainfall activity along the east coast.

The low pressure area over southwest Bay of Bengal may become more marked

Dow Posts Fifth Straight Week in the Black



8083.38 246.27E (3.14%) Apr 9 4:03pm ET
Open: 7839.89
High: 8087.28
Low: 7839.89

Volume: 462,029,806
Avg Vol: 433,230,000
Mkt Cap: N/A
Disclaimer
Afternoon everyone. Just ordered weather station #2. 7-10 days for delivery, can't wait. Is anyone with a running cam having any issues uploading images today? Warmed up rather quickly today. 47 degrees this morning and almost 85 now. Summer is on the way.

Acting Administrator Ward Speaks At The National Hurricane Conference


WASHINGTON, D.C. -- The U.S. Department of Homeland Security's Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Administrator Nancy Ward today highlighted plans FEMA has implemented to prepare for the 2009 Hurricane Season during her address at the 31st Annual National Hurricane Conference.

In her speech, Acting Administrator Ward discussed reforms and improvements in the areas of preparedness and training, logistical management, communications, disaster operations, recovery, and mitigation. She highlighted the fact that FEMA now has 236 pre-scripted mission assignments with 29 different departments and agencies to expedite disaster response. She added that the agency continues to provide regional evacuation planning support to hurricane prone states. Ward stressed how critical federal, state, territorial, tribal, and local relationships are to successful disaster response. "If we do not plan together, train together and develop policies and procedures together, from the start, we as an emergency management community will never be as effective as we should be," Ward said. "FEMA Administrator Nominee, Craig Fugate, like DHS Secretary Napolitano, recognizes just how critical this is and knows that we need to continue to improve and expand our lines of communication and engagement."

Another key focus for Mrs. Ward was the importance of public information this hurricane season. She highlighted FEMA's use of new tools and technologies, and the incorporation of social media into outreach efforts through use of YouTube, Twitter, and Facebook. "There are so many ways the public gets their information today," said Nancy. "We need to continue to seek out communications tools outside the traditional forms of media."


LSU HURRICANE CENTER



The MISSION of the LSU HURRICANE CENTER is to advance the state-of-knowledge of hurricanes and their impacts on the natural, built, and human environments; to stimulate new interdisciplinary/collaborative research activities; to transfer this knowledge and technology to students and professionals in concerned disciplines; and to assist the state, the nation, and the world in solving hurricane-related problems.



There's what it looks like a small fire a few blocks away from me.
yep some severe storms in that.
We don't get hurricane supplies anymore...we just leave...
Volcanic ash, resumption of Chinas Factory production, widespread demolition of failed properties globally to reduce property tax, burning of trash to produce energy, etc. have increased global atmospheric particulates, which have resulted in a decrease in surface warming, hence an average or slightly below average Spring in the northern hemisphere globallly. Fortunately, the administrations' new EPA pick plans to fire confetti into the atmosphere to further cool things down. And you thought you had breathing problems now. PS> We are having severe wildfires, 6 counties here under partial or full evacuations with 6-7% humidity and 35 mph winds with gusts to 51. Smoke, dust and wind. Hack! Cough!
We have dangerous particulate levels today...

Link
Stock up on MRE's and Heater Meals now..

Avoid the Line when a Strike does come.

We had two cases of MRE's left from Katrina that we just tossed...I had held on them, just in case...
Here's a climatology question: Is the First Lady sleeveless due to global warming?
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn16936-curved-laser-beams-could-help-tame-thunderclouds.html

'Curved laser beams could help tame thunderclouds.'

Lasers may have thousands of applications in every section of modern society, but all laser beams are fundamentally similar: single-coloured and straight.

Now, US physicists have helped to break that mould by creating the first curved laser beams. The feat could one day help guide lightning to the ground.

Optics researchers led by Pavel Polynkin at the University of Arizona in Tucson generated 35-femtosecond-long laser pulses from a standard titanium-sapphire system.

The straight laser pulses differ from standard lasers in that they cover a wide range of colour frequencies rather than a single colour. Each pulse then passes through a transparent "phase pattern" mask and a lens, which together divide the laser pulse into its constituent parts, rather like breaking a musical chord into its individual notes.

The intensity profile of a normal laser beam is symmetrical around a central intense region, but the mask and lens are specially designed to impose an unusual asymmetric intensity profile, creating a so-called Airy beam. On the right-hand side of the Airy beam there is one intense bright region, and there is a series of smaller, less intense regions to the left.

As the pulse moves away from the lens, energy flows between the different intensity regions. Because of the underlying asymmetry, the beam bends around 5 millimetres to the right over its 60-centimetre measured length. That's not enough to send the beams around sharp corners, but they could be guided around objects, such as cells, in microscopic applications.

There is such an intense concentration of electromagnetic energy in the strong curving peak of the pulse that it ionises the air as it travels, leaving a plasma arc in its wake. Team member Demetrios Christodoulides of the University of Central Florida in Orlando says those plasma arcs can help in analytical procedures.

"The emissions generated during the process are indicative of the gas composition [that the plasma is travelling through]," he says.

Previously, straight plasma channels have been used to produce those emissions, but all the emissions are projected forwards onto the same spot. Since the forward direction constantly changes for the arc, however, the emissions would arrive at different points on a detector. "Now, because the emissions are from a curved plasma pattern, you can pinpoint precisely where in the gas they came from," Christodoulides says.

But Jerome Kasparian at the University of Geneva in Switzerland, who was not involved in the study, thinks plasma channels produced by laser pulses could perform a more spectacular function on a larger scale.

Kasparian and Jean-Pierre Wolf, also at Geneva, are attempting to use plasma channels to control lightning strikes by firing laser pulses into thunderclouds.

In 2004, Kasparian and Wolf took their plasma channel-generating laser equipment into thunderstorms in New Mexico. They fired straight laser pulses into the thunderclouds 10 times every second, hoping that the high energy plasma channels that form in the laser pulse's wake would trigger lightning strikes, which would then travel along the plasma channels down to the ground, like a train running along railway tracks (Optics Express, DOI: 10.1364/OE.16.005757).

"We didn't detect triggered lightning but we did detect electric activity synchronised with the laser pulses," says Kasparian. He thinks the plasma was too low in energy to trigger full lightning strikes, but the researchers think they can solve that problem with modifications to the system.

Kasparian says that in future, Christodoulides's team's work could be combined with his to help aim the laser pulses and plasma channels at specific targets, such as clouds, although he points out that the laser pulses can also be guided using mirrors. "But it would be fun to see curved lightning discharges," he says.
Pat thanks for posting that that's really cool.
I rather have a La Nina than an ENSO Neutral
2005 and 2008 were Neutrals.
Looks like this will be another boring season
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I rather have a La Nina than an ENSO Neutral
2005 and 2008 were Neutrals.


I knew i was wrong about 2005 lol.
Quoting G35Wayne:
Looks like this will be another boring season


Fail.

It only takes one. Need I remind you of some below average years since 1979 that had some notable events?

1983: Alicia
1987: Emily
1991: Bob
1992: Andrew
1993: Emily
1994: Gordon
2002: Isidore and Lili

IIRC though, you were the guy who stated on numerous occasions throughout the last several months that you wanted a hurricane strike. Bearing that in mind, it isn't quite so surprising to hear you complain about what 2009 is going to be in terms of activity.

To begin with, neutral years are worse than La Nina years, at least in terms of United States landfalls (La Nina years are typically worse for the Caribbean and Central America, as evidenced in 1999, 2000, and 2007), so we aren't out of the woods in spite of La Nina's inevitable demise.

Furthermore, it only takes one. And certainly, CSU's April forecasts should be taken with a grain of salt. Pre-season forecasts mean next to nothing, and although the May forecasts are more accurate, they can still be quite erroneous and off the mark, as evidenced in 2005, when an average season was predicted.
What are the possibilities of a slow start with very few storms in the firt two months, and with the ones that develope being strong due to the built up energy. Then a swarm of storms over the 6 weeks that surround the peak and then a subsequent slow period with stronger storms towards the end for the same reasons referenced in the beginning. My view is based upon a transitoning environment from La to El and due to the rain in the Sahara and the potential dust intervention and a bit of a shift in the anchored high in the Atlantic. Not to menton the lower than normal SST's we are thinking about currently. I will not venture into the realm of the possible Volcanic impact or the GM storm items from the last post. Bottom line, until December, we are all guessing.

I would still like to find data relating to cyclone frequency in a post Volcanic event senario around the globe. Someone had to study that and or researched it after the fact.

BTW, where are the blog stretching graphic police? ??? :)
How wild--Vero Beach had the coldest low in Florida last night--and was 14 degrees colder than us! Never seen a south FL coastal station that much cooler than us!

Link

This was a new record for Vero Beach by 4 degrees, and the coldest so late in the season.
South Florida gets sneakingly cold.
Quoting hahaguy:
South Florida gets sneakingly cold.


It sure got all the way to 40 in Bradenton. Sneaky cold is right!

PS 5-1 pens
Quoting Ossqss:


It sure got all the way to 40 in Bradenton. Sneaky cold is right!

PS 5-1 pens


How did I know you were going to sneak in the pens score lol. It got to 46 in Port St. Lucie. It's not suppose to be cold in april here lol.
My bad on a weather blog, couldn't resist.

6-1
Quoting Ossqss:
My bad on a weather blog, couldn't resist.

6-1


6-1 even better LOL.
Well it won't stay sneaky cold down there :)

Looking at the records, Vero Beach's March monthly record low of 26 is colder than the February monthly record low of 28. That's just odd.
The same thing is true in Melbourne, monthly record low in February of 27 and for March, 25.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
The same thing is true in Melbourne, monthly record low in February of 27 and for March, 25.

That is very odd.
There was a very strong March cold wave in 1980. I remember we had snow flurries all day on March 2, 1980.
The records also claim that Daytona Beach had a freeze on April 14 1940--which I find hard to believe. Jacksonville apt and Gainesville, well inland and to the north, have not had a freeze close to that late.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
There was a very strong March cold wave in 1980. I remember we had snow flurries all day on March 2, 1980.


That's 5 years to early for me lol.
#318 Tejano the first lady is sleeveless because she is a member of the NRA exercising her right to bare arms :)
I think that 1940 record for the latest freeze is doubtful, especially since the earliest freeze in Daytona Beach was also in 1940, and is recorded as 26--on November 16. There's just no way it could be that cold down there so early!
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I think that 1940 record for the latest freeze is doubtful, especially since the earliest freeze in Daytona Beach was also in 1940, and is recorded as 26--on November 16. There's just no way it could be that cold down there so early!

I agree with you on that
Except that Gainesville FL was 24 that day too...
Quoting Patrap:
50th Anniversary of the Mercury 7




Patrap, is that you on the far right? :)
Wow that was today!
Quoting Ossqss:

Patrap, is that you on the far right? :)



No,..but thats me in the foreground next to the Saturn 5 at JSC in Houston last April.


And they wouldnt give me the Keys to this one either..



Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number TWENTY-FIVE
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE JADE
10:00 AM Réunion April 10 2009
=================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Jade (991 hPa) located at 23.7S 52.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The storm is reported as moving east-southeast at 9 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale-Force Winds
=================
40 NM radius from the center, extending up to 90 NM in the southeastern semi-circle

Near Gale-Force Winds
=======================
80 NM radius from the center extending up to 130 NM in the northeastern quadrant and 200 NM in the southeastern quadrant and 100 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 25.1S 53.9E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
24 HRS: 28.5S 56.3E - 40 knots (Devenant EXTRATROPICAL)
48 HRS: 36.9S 59.3E - 50 knots (Depression EXTRATROPICAL)
72 HRS: 47.5S 71.0E - 40 knots (Depression EXTRATROPICAL)

Additional Information
======================
The system has re-intensified over last night with convective activity located less than 0.5 degree from the estimated center. Quikscat data 0318z shows a very well defined low level circulation center with winds reaching 35/40 knots (not contaminated by rain). Despite the persistent westerly wind shear. It seems the system has re-intensified thanks to the excellent poleward upper level divergence (polar jetstream). The system should begin its extratropical transition within the next 24 hours.

Jade should accelerate southeastwards and begin to evacuate towards the extratropical latitudes. Winds extension is calbrated thanks to recent satellite data.


looks like a possible cyclone for West Bengal region
Quoting Patrap:



No,..but thats me in the foreground next to the Saturn 5 at JSC in Houston last April.


And they wouldnt give me the Keys to this one either..





Nice pics. It's amazing how large that ship actually is.

Things are shakin on the west coast today, from Baja to Central Alaska.
Magnitude Location Time
4.1 Off the coast of Oregon 4 hours ago Map
4.2 Off the coast of Oregon Yesterday
351. P451
Arkansas town devestated.

Severe weather shifting eastward.

352. CeBas
Neutral will SLOWLY!!! WARM!!! over the hurricane season.
353. P451
Quoting Ossqss:


Nice pics. It's amazing how large that ship actually is.

Things are shakin on the west coast today, from Baja to Central Alaska.
Magnitude Location Time
4.1 Off the coast of Oregon 4 hours ago Map
4.2 Off the coast of Oregon Yesterday


That region constantly shakes. I would worry if it decided to go dormant for a period of time for that would mean stress is building up and the inevitable subduction superquake would come to be. Some day that region will once again burst with an 8 or 9 or worse and you will have the devastating tsunami numerous shows talk about.
Looks like today has an interesting bag of tricks for the US
do i smell wishcasters on the blog this AM or do i semll trolls
The eruption of Redoubt continues, and the volcano remains at aviation color code ORANGE and alert level WATCH.

Seismicity continues to be elevated, with many small, discrete earthquakes occurring. Satellite images continue to be obscured by clouds. No ash emissions are visible in NWS radar.

A magnitude 5.1 earthquake, located 175 miles NNW of Anchorage, occurred yesterday at 9:50 PM AKDT and shows up strongly on the Redoubt seismic network
Quoting Tazmanian:
do i smell wishcasters on the blog this AM or do i semll trolls


Taz you already got your Troll sniffer going....LOL
Very Strong Low!

For those needing i have posted live coverage of the Masters on my WebSite! Coverage starts at 10:35!

http://tampaspinsweather.webs.com/apps/forums/topics/show/595432-live-masters-coverage-
Quoting futuremet:
it looks to be warming up some what