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Australia's Hell on Earth fires claim 200 lives

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:15 PM GMT on February 09, 2009

Unprecedented heat, high winds, and years of record drought fanned weekend fires that claimed at least 200 lives in Australia's southeastern state of Victoria. It was Australia's deadliest natural disaster ever. The fires burnt 1200 square miles, an area 80% the size of Rhode Island. "Out there it has been hell on earth", Victorian Premier John Brumby said Saturday in a televised address. It is difficult to imagine more hellish fire conditions than those observed in Victoria state's capital, Melbourne, on Saturday (February 7). The temperature soared to 115.5°F (46.4°C), the hottest ever recorded in the city, besting the previous record of 114°F (45.6°C) set on January 13, 1939. Humidities as low as 4% and sustained north winds that reached 43 mph, gusting to 51 mph, accompanied the furnace-like heat. The dry winds were easily able to fan fires in the parched vegetation. Severe drought conditions reign in Southeast Australia, where some regions--including the city of Melbourne--have experienced their worst drought on record over the past eight years.

The previous worst-ever Australian fires were the 1939 Black Friday fires, which burned an area nearly four times the size of Rhode Island (5800 square miles), killing 71 people, and the February 1983 Ash Wednesday fires, which killed 75 people and burned 1800 square miles.


Figure 1. This image from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Aqua satellite shows multiple large fires (outlined in red) burning in Southeast Australia's Victoria state on February 7. Huge plumes of smoke spread southeast, driven by fierce winds. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

World's hottest temperature so far south
The heat wave over Southeast Australia began on January 27. A slow-moving high pressure system over the Tasman Sea, combined with an intense tropical low off the northwest coast of Western Australia and an active monsoon, provided ideal conditions for hot, tropical air to move over the southern parts of Australia. The most exceptional heat in January occurred in northern and eastern Tasmania. The previous state record of 105°F (40.8°C), set at Hobart on 4 January 1976, was broken on 29 January when it reached 107°F (41.5°C) at Flinders Island Airport. This record only lasted one day, as Scamander, on the east coast, reached 108°F (42.2°C) on the 30th. Four other sites broke the previous Tasmanian record that day. Nearly half of the island of Tasmania had its hottest day on record on January 30, with many records broken by large margins, particularly in the north. Launceston Airport (39.9°C) broke its previous record by 2.6 degrees°C. This is the second-largest margin by which a record high maximum has been broken at any of the 103 locations in the long-term high-quality Australian temperature data set. The January 2009 event has now been responsible for seven of the eight highest temperatures on record in Tasmania.

After a slight drop in temperatures the first few days of February, extreme heat moved back into Southeast Australia on February 6-7. The hottest temperature ever recorded in Victoria state was measured at Hopetoun, in the northwest, which hit 120°F (48.8°C) on February 7. This bested the old record of 117°F (47.2°C) set at Mildura in January 1939. The new record at Hopetoun is also the hottest temperature in the world so far south. Most of Victoria recorded its hottest day on record on February 7, and fourteen stations exceeded the previous state record temperature.

The January-February 2009 heat wave has also been unusually long lasting. Both Adelaide and Melbourne set records for the most consecutive days above 43°C. Adelaide's temperatures were at this level on each of the four days 27-30 January, and Melbourne's for three days from 28-30 January, breaking the previous records of two at both locations.

Spectacular nocturnal heat burst
On the morning of January 29, an exceptional nocturnal heat event occurred in the northern suburbs of Adelaide around 3 a.m. Strong northwesterly winds mixed hot air aloft to the surface. At RAAF Edinburgh, the temperature rose to 107°F (41.7°C) at 3:04 am. Such an event appears to be without known precedent in southern Australia.


Figure 2. Maximum temperature anomalies for February 7, 2009. Most of the southeast Australia state of Victoria experienced the highest temperatures ever recorded, with temperatures up to 32°F (18°C) above average. The cooler temperatures in northeastern Australia are due to the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Ellie and persistent monsoon rains. Image credit: "The exceptional January-February 2009 heat wave in south-eastern Australia, Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology.

Climate Change and Australia
As to whether this heat wave is due to climate change, Mr. Perry Wiles, senior climatologist with the NSW office of the Bureau of Meteorology said, "Climate change is not only increasing average temperatures, but also the frequency and severity of extreme temperature events. While any one event cannot be attributed to climate change, this heat wave is certainly consistent with that expectation. In a warming world we can expect similar extreme events more often."

Average annual temperatures have increased by about 1.3°F (0.75°C) in Australia over the past century, which is also the what the global average increase in temperature has been. According the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, average temperatures in Australia are expected to rise by about 4.7°F (2.6°C) by the year 2100. Droughts are expected to become more severe and more frequent in the southeastern regions affected by this weekend's fires (Figure 3), though other portions of Australia are expected to see increases in rainfall. These sorts of regional precipitation predictions are in their infancy, and we currently have low confidence in them. However, continued increases in summertime temperatures are likely to bring more frequent heat waves like this weekend's to Southeast Australia over the coming century.


Figure 3. Average temperature and precipitation changes over Australia and New Zealand from the 21 climate models used to formulate the 2007 IPCC climate change report (A1B scenario). Annual mean and summertime (December-January-February) changes are plotted for the period 1980-1999 vs. 2080-2099. Image credit: 2007 IPCC report, section 11, "Regional Climate projections".

For more information
"The exceptional January-February 2009 heat wave in south-eastern Australia", Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology.

Jeff Masters
BUSHFIRES IN VICTORIA AUSTRALIA ON WHAT IS BEING CALLED
BUSHFIRES IN VICTORIA AUSTRALIA ON WHAT IS BEING CALLED
Our State of Victoria is under siege by bushfires over so many areas temperatures are still in the high 40C. Tragedy is everywhere soo many lives lost over 65 dead... over 600 homes gone whole towns we are not too far from where the devastation is. I cannot believe that a town I worked in has been completley wiped out not one house standing. It is a very sad day here this weekend. And it is not over yet as the temperatures are still high more north winds have been forecasted and lightning. As our Prime Minster said it is

Climate Change Fire

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thank you Dr. Masters. Love your Blog... Looks like warmer weather this week for S. FL.
If we humans think, that in the big scheme of things we are in charge..... we should look closely to the events in AussieLand and be HUMBLED -- Ultimately we are but specks --

Mother Nature Runs the Show... it is foolish for us to think otherwise.

Thanks Doc for putting this on the menu today.
i think dr m may want to update his blog from 141 too 166




Australian fire zone a crime scene; 166 killed

in Australia inferno BBC AP – The remains of St. Andrew's church are scattered after it was destroyed by fire at the community of Kinglake, … WHITTLESEA, Australia – Police declared incinerated towns crime scenes Monday, and the prime minister spoke of "mass murder" after investigators said arsonists may have set some of Australia's worst wildfires in history. The death toll rose to 166.There were no quick answers, but officials said panic and the freight-train speed of the fire front — driven by 60 mph winds and temperatures as high as 117 degrees Fahrenheit (47 C) — probably accounted for the unusually high toll.

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, visibly upset during a television interview, reflected the country's disgust at the idea that arsonists may have set some of the 400 fires that devastated Victoria state, or helped them jump containment lines.

"What do you say about anyone like that?" Rudd said. "There's no words to describe it, other than it's mass murder."

From the air, the landscape was blackened as far as the eye could see. In at least one town, bodies still lay in the streets. Entire forests were reduced to leafless, charred trunks, farmland to ashes. Victoria police spokeswoman Christie Pengally said the death toll as of late Monday was 166.At Kinglake, a body covered by a white sheet lay in a yard where every tree, blade of grass and the ground was blackened. Elsewhere in the town, the burned-out hulks of four cars were clustered haphazardly together after an apparent collision. Australian Broadcasting Corp. radio reported a car in a small reservoir, the driver apparently steering there in desperation.

"What we've seen, I think, is that people didn't have enough time, in some cases," Victoria Police Commissioner Christine Nixon told a news conference. "We're finding (bodies) on the side of roads, in cars that crashed."

But there were also extraordinary tales of survival.

One man leapt into his pool to escape the flames as they roared over his house, leaving it unscarred but razing his neighbor's. Another woman sheltered with her children in a wombat burrow as the worst of the fire passed.

Mark Strubing took refuge in a drainage pipe as his property outside Kinglake burned.

"We jumped in the car and we were only literally just able to outrun this fire. It was traveling as fast as the wind," Strubing told Nine Network television news.

He said he and a companion rolled around in the water at the bottom to wet their clothing as the flames started licking the pipe: "How we didn't burn I don't know."

Elsewhere in Kinglake, Jack Barber fled just ahead of the flames with his wife and a neighbor, driving in two cars packed with birth certificates, insurance documents, two cats, four kittens and a dog.

"We had a fire plan," he said Monday. "The plan was to get the hell out of there before the flames came."

With their escape route blocked by downed power lines and a tree, they took shelter first at a school, then — when that burned — in an exposed cricket ground ringed by trees, where they found five others.

"All around us was 100-foot (30-meter) flames ringing the oval, and we ran where the wind wasn't. It was swirling all over the place," Barber said. "For three hours, we dodged the wind."

The Victoria Country Fire Service said some 850 square miles (2,200 square kilometers) were burned out.

More than a dozen fires still burned uncontrollably across the state, though conditions were much cooler than on Saturday, when the wind surged and changed direction quickly time and again, fanning the blazes and making their direction utterly unpredictable from minute to minute.

Local media had been issuing warnings in the days leading up to the weekend, but many people guarding their homes with backyard hoses would have been outside when the wind changed, and thus could have missed the new warnings.

Jim Andrews, senior meteorologist at accuweather.com, said the combination of record high heat, high winds, gusts and low humidity created a perfect storm scenario for the fires. "I cannot fathom in my mind anything more, hellish, firewise," he said.

"Last Saturday we had the most intense fire weather conditions we have had in forecast history," David Packham, a research fellow in climatology at the School of Geography & Environmental Science at Melbourne's Monash University, said in an e-mail to journalists on Monday. He said the heat and a recent lack of rain made it clear days before the weekend that "conditions were in place for a disaster to occur."

At least 750 homes were destroyed Saturday, the Victoria Country Fire Service said.

Officials said both the tolls of human life and property would almost certainly rise as they reached deeper into the disaster zone, and forecasters said temperatures would rise again later in the week, posing a risk of further flare-ups.

Police Commissioner Nixon said investigators had strong suspicions that at least one of the deadly blazes — known as the Churchill fire after a ruined town — was deliberately set. And it could not be ruled out for other fires. She cautioned against jumping to conclusions.

The country's top law officer, Attorney General Robert McClelland, said people found to have deliberately set fires could face murder charges. Murder can carry a life sentence.

Police sealed off Maryville, a town destroyed by another fire, with checkpoints, telling residents who fled and news crews they could not enter because there were still bodies in the streets. Armed officers moved through the shattered landscape taking notes, pool news photographs showed.

John Handmer, a wildfire safety expert at the Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology, said research had shown that people in the path of a blaze must get out early or stay inside until the worst has past.

"Fleeing at the last moment is the worst possible option," he said. "Sadly, this message does not seem to have been sufficiently heeded this weekend with truly awful consequences in Victoria."

Even if a house is set ablaze, it will burn more slowly and with less intensity than a wildfire and residents have a better chance of escape, he said.

Victoria state Premier John Brumby on Monday announced a commission would be held to examine all aspects of the fires, including warning policies.

"I think our policy has served us well in what I call normal conditions. These were unbelievable circumstances," Brumby said on Australian Broadcasting Corp. television.

Blazes have been burning for weeks across several states in southern Australia. A long-running drought in the south — the worst in a century — had left forests extra dry and Saturday's fire conditions in Victoria were said to be the worst ever in Australia.

In New South Wales state on Monday, a 31-year-old man appeared in court charged with arson in connection with a wildfire that burned north of Sydney over the weekend. No loss of life was reported there. He faces up to 10 years in prison.

The country's deadliest fires before the current spate killed 75 people in 1983. In 2006, nine people died on South Australia's Eyre Peninsula.

Thank you Dr. Masters

A disaster of incredible proportions. Surreal - hard to wrap one's mind around it.

Aussie, I hope you continue to keep us informed. As difficult as it is to see the updates - it is important not only as a matter of solidarity with our Friends Down Under, but that we stay informed and keep praying.

No one can deny that heat and dry conditions are the catalyst. Or that some humans played a part in the difficulty of controlling the inferno. I only hope that we do not allow this time of tragedy in Australia to become a football on the field of the GW debate. Respect and condolences, information and money is, IMHO, what is called for at the moment. There will time enough for dissecting later.
Tears and prayers for those left to mourn the fire deaths. Mother Nature has awesome powers and we can learn more from the survivors. Hope they start getting some relief. Rain, it keeps life going in more than one way. Numbers now up to 171 with more expected.
ReliefWeb:

Australian government assistance for Victorian bush fires

Source: Government of Australia

Date: 08 Feb 2009

The Victorian fires have been extremely devastating and this is an extraordinary natural disaster with high loss of life and property.

Our thoughts and prayers are with those families who are suffering from these cruel and horrific events.

Our gratitude goes out to the fire-fighters and other emergency services workers, many of them volunteers, who have endured the unbearable heat to help defend life and property.

Centrelink family liaison officers will be made available in relief centres in Victoria to provide counselling services.

Given the devastation caused by the bushfires in the state of Victoria, the Australian Government Disaster Recovery Payment will be made available to those people adversely affected by the fires. It is $1,000 for eligible adults and an addition $400 per child.

The Australian Government Disaster Recovery Payment will be paid to those seriously injured and hospitalised as well as who have lost their homes, or whose principal place of residence has been destroyed or seriously damaged, as a direct result of the bushfires.

The Payment will also be available to an immediate family member of those who lost their lives in the fire.

It will be paid through Centrelink and available from Monday. The Australian Government Victorian fires hotline 180 2211 has been established to take claims and enquiries.

Centrelink staff will also be in relief centres today to take claims for the Australian Government Disaster Recovery Payment.

The Australian Government will also provide funeral assistance for the immediate family of a person who has lost their life as a direct result of the fires. This assistance will be up to $5,000.

Authorisation has been provided to deploy twelve Army bulldozers and support crews to help fire protection efforts near Yea in north-east Victoria.

The Defence Force personnel will help build containment lines surrounding the town, which is being seriously threatened with fire.

In addition, the Australian Government is also providing 150 portable beds or mattresses to relief centres in the Baw Baw Shire in West Gippsland.

With the extreme conditions throughout Victoria, it is essential that emergency workers are able to get sufficient rest to continue their tireless work.

The bedding is being delivered to Victoria as fast as possible.

The Rudd and Brumby Governments are working closely together to ensure that the people and emergency workers in Victoria have all the support they require during this difficult time.

This assistance is over and above the support that will be provided by the Australian Government under the long standing Natural Disaster Relief and Recovery Arrangements.

Through these arrangements, partial reimbursement is provided to the Victorian Government to provide assistance such as grants for food, clothing, accommodation, emergency housing repairs and for expenditure on public infrastructure restoration.

The Australian Government is currently continuing to monitor the impacts and will be considering what further assistance can be provided to individuals, families and communities, especially through community organisations that are responding so well to this devastating event.

The Australian Government is working with the Victorian Government to establish a Victorian Bushfire Appeal for people to make donation to assist those affected by the fires. More information on how to donate will be made available as soon as possible.

More information on Australian Government assistance will be available at http://www.disasterassist.gov.au Link
ReliefWeb:

Australia: Wild Fire - Feb 2009
Updates on Australia affected by the Australia: Wild Fire - Feb 2009 emergency. GLIDE No. WF-2009-000035-AUS Link


(MAP) Australia: Wild Fires (as of 08 Feb 2009) - Location Map Link
Complete Blog Refresh
Mirror Site
New Section includes Mt Redoubt

I just looked out the window as I was uploading the data to the website... and... its *^%$ snowing???
Quoting Orcasystems:
Complete Blog Refresh
Mirror Site
New Section includes Mt Redoubt

I just looked out the window as I was uploading the data to the website... and... its *^%$ snowing???


Thanks Orca... and thanks for turning the fans off.
hahahahahahahaha

sunny here temp soar into 50 tuseday and wed
Quoting Seastep:


Thanks Orca... and thanks for turning the fans off.


Its Feb 9, and I live on Vancouver Island.. snow now is like having Snow in Florida.. its just not suppose to happen. I should be mowing the lawn or something.


sad doc very sad and the thing that gets me the most is they are sayin that people have been setting these things what are they that do this
Quoting Seastep:


Thanks Orca... and thanks for turning the fans off.

Actually, I think it was KOTG, that had the turbo fans running. Orca, Bless His Heart, was doing the Happy Dance.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Its Feb 9, and I live on Vancouver Island.. snow now is like having Snow in Florida.. its just not suppose to happen. I should be mowing the lawn or something.


LOL when you was doing your snow dance.....you got the directions wrong.....next time use GPS....LMAO
whats up with that wind gauge orca are ya havin a snownado out there
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
whats up with that wind gauge orca are ya havin a snownado out there


No, when the winds are calm.. it doesn't show a direction
Survivors recount tales of living through Australia's fires by chance. Seven Network's Chris Reason reports.

Quoting TampaSpin:


LOL when you was doing your snow dance.....you got the directions wrong.....next time use GPS....LMAO


So let me get this right... just so SF can see it was not my idea.. you want me to figure out what went wrong.. and try and get it to snow in Florida again? OK, but remember.. it was your idea.
Quoting Orcasystems:


So let me get this right... just so SF can see it was not my idea.. you want me to figure out what went wrong.. and try and get it to snow in Florida again? OK, but remember.. it was your idea.


NO NO NO......LOL
ORCA your Weather Station is very Nice....Good job setting it up.....I gotta get me one..!!!
Thanks Dr. Masters for the information on the fires. Aussie had an article on this in the old blog with a lot of pictures.
i got one coming got it for 249.00 cad.
it will go good with the 9 turbo fans on the roof of the building
ORCA is everyone in your area prepared incase Redoubt blows......this could affect you also....

Here is a prediction of where the Ash field will go......

Here: Sunny - 73 - No humidity. Beautiful S FL weather!

Now, don't ruin it. Although, wouldn't mind some rain.
Quoting TampaSpin:
ORCA is everyone in your area prepared incase Redoubt blows......this could affect you also....

Here is a prediction of where the Ash field will go......



You really need an atlas buds... your talking about the 60N line.. I am way down at 48N, thats approx 700 miles South.
Quoting TampaSpin:
ORCA your Weather Station is very Nice....Good job setting it up.....I gotta get me one..!!!


I have the weather station out by the pond.. thinking of getting a weather cam, that would be aimed down on the pond.
Cleared up enough at Redoubt to actually see on the cams now:

Paris airports will shut to flights from 2000 (1900GMT) for 12 hours because extremely high winds are expected, transport officials say.

The French capital is facing winds of up to 120km/h (75mph), forecasters say.

The country is on storm alert with the French Atlantic coast expected to be worst hit.

But forecasters predict the storm will not be as bad as the one that lashed France on 14 January, leaving 11 dead and causing widespread damage.

Travellers have been asked not to head to either the city's Charles de Gaulle or Orly airports.

Charles de Gaulle is one the busiest airports in Europe.

Ferries are also affected. Services between Brittany and nearby islands have been suspended, operators Oceane and Penn Ar Bedd say.

Brittany Ferries has postponed the inaugural sailing on Tuesday of its service from Roscoff to Plymouth, in southern England.

The French navy has also put three rescue vessels on stand-by to sail to the aid of any shipping in difficulty. Sand bags have been deployed on sea-fronts exposed to potential flooding.

Link
Temperatures in parts of the Highlands have plunged as low as -18C overnight as much of Scotland had its coldest night of the winter.

Aviemore recorded the coldest February temperature since 1986 (-18C), Altnaharra in the Highlands was down to -15C and Aberdeen was -12C.

The Met Office warned of freezing temperatures leading to the risk of widespread ice on untreated roads.

Temperatures in Glasgow and Edinburgh were about -1C despite snow falls.

There was more snow over much of southern and central Scotland overnight.

Drivers were being advised to take extra care.

No major routes were closed but in Dumfries and Galloway the M74 was down to two lanes at Beattock Summit.

About 80 Aberdeenshire schools and six schools and a nursery in the Highlands were closed or partially closed as cold weather continued to cause problems.

The freezing conditions provided a boost for Scotland's ski centres over the weekend.

Skiers flocked to the slopes to make the most of the weather.

At Glenshee Ski Centre the car park was full by 1000 GMT, with 1,500 cars parked.

However, some people were reporting that their cars were getting stuck in the snow and Grampian Police was forced to close the snow gates on the incoming roads in an attempt to persuade new arrivals to go elsewhere.

The centre's website said that conditions were "nearly perfect".

At Nevis Range ski centre near Fort William there were about 800 people already on the slopes by 1030 GMT.

The icy conditions made driving difficult in some areas on Sunday and in Grampian the B974 Banchory to Fettercairn road and the B976 Crathie to Gairnsheil roads were closed due to ice and snow, while some roads in the Highlands were also closed.

Link

--

Heavy rain sweeping across England has left many councils preparing for floods - but forecasters warn more snow is on the way elsewhere.

Up to two inches of rain is expected across southern England, with nine flood warnings in place across the south west.

Council emergency planning teams are on "full alert", according to the Local Government Association.

Blizzard conditions are expected in Wales and the Midlands later.

After a week which saw the UK's heaviest snowfall for 18 years, closing schools and crippling public transport, the rain has heightened the risk of flooding.

Monday has brought at least an inch of rain to almost all of the south of England, with some areas experiencing twice that amount.


The Environment Agency has issued nine flood warnings affecting homes and businesses near some rivers in Devon, Dorset and Somerset.

A further 30 areas in the south west are on flood watch - meaning low lying land and roads could be affected - along with 32 more in the Midlands, southern England and the Anglia region.

Elsewhere, the agency is warning of flooding in coastal areas of north-eastern England.

Many local authorities are preparing sandbags, water pumps and generators in case of flooding.

Local Government Association Environment Board chairman, Cllr Paul Bettison, said: "Emergency planning teams are on full alert and ready to help people before flooding hits.

"If the floods are going to come in the middle of the night, when it's freezing cold outside, elderly and vulnerable people need to be moved early."

He urged people living by a river, coastal or flood risk area to prepare themselves by moving valuables upstairs and signing up to the Environment Agency's automated warning system.

BBC forecaster Matt Taylor said the rain will turn to snow over eastern Wales and the west and southern Midlands on Monday evening, spreading north as far as Nottinghamshire overnight.

Up to six inches (15cm) could fall in some areas. Gale force winds will cause drifting where snow is falling and exacerbate already freezing temperatures.

"There will be heavy-lying snow by tomorrow morning - up to 5cm (2in) of snow generally but we could see 10cm in some places and 15cm on higher ground," he said.

Localised sleet and light snow in the north of England should have less of an impact, while Northern Ireland and Scotland should escape further significant snowfall.

However, it will be another freezing night in the Highlands, Mr Taylor added.

Sunday night saw temperatures drop to -18C (-0.4F), which the Met Office said was the lowest temperature since January 2003.

For those councils facing further snowfall, a lack of road salt is a concern, with the Highways Agency saying supplies are "very limited".

There was some relief in Scotland as a ship unloaded 6,000 tonnes of salt from Tarragona in Spain at Aberdeen harbour. The city's council said it was a scheduled delivery.

Another container ship is travelling from Spain, laden with a further 40,000 tonnes of salt, and a third is also heading to the UK with salt from Germany. Both are expected to dock on Wednesday.

Monday saw far fewer schools closed across Britain, although 55 were shut in Aberdeenshire. There were 13 closed across Wales and eight in Bedfordshire, with just a handful shut in other local authority areas across southern England.

Meanwhile, the debate continues over whether last week's snow caused Britain to grind to a halt too easily.

The leader of thw Devon and Cornwall Business Council, Tim Jones, said too many schools and businesses "panicked", costing the region's economy £40m.

In London, Tube workers are angry at being told they will not be paid if they failed to turn up for work during last week's heavy snow.

They have accused Mayor Boris Johnson and Transport for London of hypocrisy, given that all bus services in the capital and much of the Tube network were withdrawn last Monday.

Link

A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for the following places: the Midlands, east Wales, the West country and southern England.

Blizzards accompanied by heavy snow are expected in the South West, Midlands and Wales. Snow may reach over half a foot, especially in high areas. Heavy rain is expected in Southern England, with risk of localised flooding.

Snow may drift due to gale force winds from the east.



Beachfoxx asked yesterday about protecting animals from volcanic ash. My friend who did animal rescue for the volcano in Chile last year answered by email but I don't know if it was posted. Just FYI for those of you who were wondering.

Beachfoxx, I am an animal disaster responder and worked the volcano in Chatien, Chili this past May. Good question about how to protect pets from ash fallout. The only real way is to remove them from the area, but this may be hard to do if you have large animals. After that, bring them indoors and seal all outside air intakes the best you can. Plastic sheeting and duct tape is good or using sheets and duct tape can work too. If you have a barn, that's a bunch of plastic and duct tape. Close the barn doors, outside stall doors, loft doors, etc. If you are evacuating from an ash fallout area, Put your pets in a carrier and cover it with a sheet and tape that down. Of course you don't want to use plastic in this instance!! But you can use plastic for horse trailers or livestock trailers as long as you leave some type of airflow. Keep some saline eye rinse around and flush their eyes several times a day, if you can't find any, use fresh water. Ash is very abrasive and can injure their corneas. If you are sheltering at home, seal off the house the same way and try not to take them outside if at all possible. Set up a Potty area inside with papers, they will use it eventually!! If you do have to take them out, do so for only VERY short amounts of time and then back inside. Rinse their eyes and brush the ask out of their fur to they don't ingest it when they lick or clean themselves. Make sure you rinse the pads of their feet too!! Remember that ash will contaminate all the outside water supplies and any open food containers, uncovered hay or feed bins. Cattle or livestock should be brought into and area where there is no grass and only fed fresh hay or feed and that should only be what they will consume in a few minutes. If they eat grass that is covered in ash, you could have a big problem, also ponds, lakes and rivers will be full of ash, so you need to provide fresh clean water for them and keep that water source clean and clear of ash. If you are paying close attention to the wind direction, it is possible to time outdoor feedings or walking when the wind shifts away from you or is calm. I noticed in Chili that sometimes we would get pounded with ash, but a few minutes later the wind would calm or shift just a bit and it was much better. Hope this helps with your question. Feel free to post on whatever blog you asked the question on. My friend sent me a copy of your question and I don't know where it was originally posted. But it is a great question and one that I have been worrying about since I saw the first reports of the volcano in Alaska.


As it goes through the Channel in the next few hours. Pressure of Winter Storm 'Quinten' is estimated at around 973mb.

Current satellite image:

TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION 2009/002

A TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION has been issued at 1510GMT on Monday 9th February 2009

Valid from/until: 1510 to 0300GMT on Monday 9th/Tuesday 10th February 2009 for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire:

SW England

Cent S England

SE England

Channel Is

THREATS

Isolated tornadoes, gusty winds, hail, occasional CG lightning.

SYNOPSIS

Rapidly deepening Atlantic depression will move through the English Channel this evening and overnight. Convection has developed within the dry intrusion INVOF the centre of the depression. Close to the south coast of England, wind shear is expected to be rather high, especially INVOF the E-W orientated 'occlusion' which will lie along southern counties for a time through the evening, and should be overspread by the dry intrusion. If any convection can cross this boundary, then there is the risk of a tornado. In addition some gusty winds are likely, close to severe levels. Across the channel Islands, winds could reach severe levels overnight, although non-convective winds will be close to this level too, perhaps higher. Indeed, 70mph is possible later in the night.

Forecaster: RPK.
30 cotillion
Amigo, my heart goes out to ya.
Quoting theshepherd:
30 cotillion
Amigo, my heart goes out to ya.


I myself will only be on the fringes, if I get anything... still, it's far too cold.

Perhaps if I wasn't so busy and/or lazy, I'd sum these all up into one blog entry... maybe I'll do that for the season next year.
I just updated my blog if anyone would like to view.......

TampaSpin's Weather Blog Link
Quoting Orcasystems:


You really need an atlas buds... your talking about the 60N line.. I am way down at 48N, thats approx 700 miles South.


Looks like that plum will drift SE....Oh well just pointing out.....
What an incredible view of Redoubt there is now.....WOW!!
Redoubt Volcano Latest Observations
2009-02-09 09:14:33

The unrest at Redoubt Volcano is continuing. Volcanic tremor continues to dominate the seismic activity.

The web camera is showing a small puff of steam above the crater.
redoubt looks cold lucky to be in e cent fl happy weather
Quoting Cotillion:


As it goes through the Channel in the next few hours. Pressure of Winter Storm 'Quinten' is estimated at around 973mb.

Current satellite image:


hurricane cat 1 force wind gusts
We all envy the beautiful hot weather in Australia but apparently it comes with a price. I'm wundering if this is going to be a trend across the globe this year, extreme heat. Are there any predictions for summer 2009, specifically Southern Ontario/North Eastern United states?
Town Centre, Gosport, England (PWS) Link
Updated: 15 sec ago
Rain
49.0 F
Rain
Windchill: 44 F
Humidity: 94%
Dew Point: 47 F
Wind: 11.0 mph Variable
Wind Gust: 16.0 mph
Pressure: 28.95 in (Falling)
Visibility: 2.5 miles
UV: 0.0 out of 16
Clouds:
Few 300 ft
Mostly Cloudy 500 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 25 ft
Rapid Fire Updates:
Enable


We all envy the beautiful hot weather in Australia but apparently it comes with a price. I'm wundering if this is going to be a trend across the globe this year, extreme heat. Are there any predictions for summer 2009, specifically Southern Ontario/North Eastern United states?


NOAA
OFFICIAL Forecasts
Mar-Apr-May 2009
Click here for information about the three-month outlook Link
[UPDATED MONTHLY FORECASTS SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE]
[EXPERIMENTAL TWO-CLASS SEASONAL FORECASTS]
Why is this being referred to as a natural disaster when they were deliberately set?
Prevalent dry Conditions,..or the climatological Heat and drought ,sparked by natural ignition sources,mostly Dry Thunderstorm Lightening.. start most Major Wildfires.

Humans sadly and tragically,re-ignite them.



AP, it is the worst fire disaster ever to hit the island. Around 700 houses have been destroyed and over 4000 people evacuated
.





MODIS Rapid-Response Australian Sat Images Link

Near-Real-Time Level-2 Browse Link
All 250-meter,

Date: 2009/040 - 02/09/09
Brest, FR (Airport)
Updated: 5 min 44 sec ago
Link
Rain
9 C
Rain
Windchill: 5 C
Humidity: 100%
Dew Point: 9 C
Wind: 33 km/h / 9.3 m/s from the SW
Pressure: 979 hPa (Falling)
Visibility: 4.0 kilometers
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 213 m
Mostly Cloudy 396 m
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 103 m

---

St Mawes, St Mawes, CORNWALL (PWS)
Link
Light Rain
4.9 C
Light Rain
Windchill: 0 C
Humidity: 96%
Dew Point: 4 C
Wind: 27.4 km/h / 7.6 m/s from the North
Wind Gust: 40.2 km/h
Pressure: 976.9 hPa (Falling)
Visibility: 5.0 kilometers
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Few 30 m
Scattered Clouds 60 m
Mostly Cloudy 243 m
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 45 m

(Both as about as close as you can get for the next few hours until it moves NW.)
A Rod just admitted of taking Roids.......no doubt.....LOL
You heard it hear first.......I'm calling him A'Roid.......ROFLMAO
Quoting TampaSpin:
You heard it hear first.......I'm calling him A'Roid.......ROFLMAO


You should have tried to copyright that Tampa. LOL.
Quoting bdkennedy1:
Why is this being referred to as a natural disaster when they were deliberately set?
It's just like global warming ... these are "human-induced" wild fires.
Quoting TampaSpin:
You heard it hear first.......I'm calling him A'Roid©.......ROFLMAO


Quoting captainhunter:


You should have tried to copyright that Tampa. LOL.


Fixed!
What a horrible tragedy in Australia. Hope it cools down soon and the fires stop!
Oh my gosh...death toll up to 173 from fires, 126+ from heat wave. That brings the total death toll to over 300...
This image is from the BBC - it shows the extent of the fires.




I have just had a mail from a WU member who is in the next state and says she can smell the smoke!!
It is snowing again here in middle England and the wind is getting stronger. Here comes the Winter storm..... but if I had to be here or in Victoria Australia, I know where I would choose to be!
I saw the Ausrailian Prime Minister call it "...mass murder..."
it is if those fires were set just for badness
River Flooding could become a problem upcoming.....

Quoting sandiquiz:
It is snowing again here in middle England and the wind is getting stronger. Here comes the Winter storm..... but if I had to be here or in Victoria Australia, I know where I would choose to be!


Hey Sandi, whereabouts are you?
Hi, I am just north of MK. The forecasters say Northamptonshire will bear the brunt of it.
Quoting sandiquiz:
Hi, I am just north of MK. The forecasters say Northamptonshire will bear the brunt of it.


Milton Keynes?

The most soulless place on Earth?
Milton Keynes?

The most soulless place on Earth?


Only people who don't live there make fun of it!!
It is a great place to live:)) LOL
Quoting newt3d:
It's just like global warming ... these are "human-induced" wild fires.

Sum of these fires were started by lightening strikes and other started by arsonists.


I think the centre is just off the Isle of Wight now...

Pressure readings around 975 or so there.

Le Havre, FR (Airport)
Updated: 23 min 45 sec ago
Overcast
10 °C
Overcast
Windchill: 7 °C
Humidity: 87%
Dew Point: 8 °C
Wind: 28 km/h / 7.7 m/s from the South
Pressure: 982 hPa (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 kilometers
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Few 335 m
Overcast 883 m
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 103 m
Link

---

Link

For the I.O.W.

---

Town Centre, Gosport, England (PWS)
Updated: 1 min 50 sec ago
Rain
8.9 °C
Rain
Windchill: 7 °C
Humidity: 92%
Dew Point: 8 °C
Wind: 14.5 km/h / 4.0 m/s from the South
Wind Gust: 24.1 km/h
Pressure: 976.5 hPa (Falling)
Visibility: 8.0 kilometers
UV: 0.0 out of 16
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 182 m
Mostly Cloudy 396 m
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 7 m

Link
Presslord, You have AOL mail.
Pressure: 976.5 hPa (Falling)
Wow - that is low !!!
Link

Perhaps slightly easier is that.

Highest gust so far is 60mph, which isn't *too* bad. In my hometown, of all places. :)

--

Although not related, ever wondered what the temperature roughly was in October 1947 in a certain area of England?

Link

That may help...
SMOKEY TOP.......HUM...

Hi. I'm in NW-Wales where we have winds below 20 mph. Pressure is 990.4 hPa and steady. Seems like the worst went past us. There is a heavy snow warning for Mid- and SE-Wales though.

*edit* Thanks for the link, Cotillon, very interesting to see the climate extremes in past decades.
Often hear it said that AGWers blame everything on CO2 and climate change.

That's really a strawman arguement since models contain multiple forcings and when climate pehenomenon are investigated natural cycles are included.

There a recent paper in Geophysical reserach Letters that supports my point.

What causes Southeast Australia's worst droughts?

Ummenhofer, C. C., et al.(2009), Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1029/2008GL036801, in press.
Since 1995, a large region of Australia has been gripped by the most severe drought in living
memory, the so-called “Big Dry”. The ramifications for affected regions are dire, with acute
water shortages for rural and metropolitan areas, record agricultural losses, the drying-out of
two of Australia’s major river systems and far-reaching ecosystem damage. Yet the drought’s
origins have remained elusive. For Southeast Australia, we show here that the “Big Dry” and
other iconic 20th Century droughts, including the Federation Drought (1895-1902) and World
War II drought (1937-1945), are driven by Indian Ocean variability, not Pacific Ocean
conditions as traditionally assumed. Specifically, a conspicuous absence of Indian Ocean
temperature conditions conducive to enhanced tropical moisture transport has deprived
southeastern Australia of its normal rainfall quota. In the case of the “Big Dry”, its
unprecedented intensity is also related to recent higher temperatures.

Here's the key graph from the paper:
Australia Draught

Historical record of IOD and ENSO years and mean climatic conditions over
southeast Australia. (a) Years of positive/negative IOD (red) and El Niño/La Niña (blue) years.
Timeseries of anomalous (b) precipitation (mm month-1), with 5-year running mean
superimposed in red (c) 5-yr running mean of temperature (°C), with a 15-year running mean
superimposed in green, and (d) 5-yr running mean of Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)
over southeastern Australia during June-October. The gray shaded bars highlight periods of
below average precipitation when the 5-year running mean falls below one standard deviation.
The duration of three major droughts has been indicated in (d) with horizontal black bars.


Notice that there are three major draughts during the sampling period that correspond to a natural cycle. The last one is like the others in regard to the amount of decrease in precipitation. And precip seems to be driven by a natural change. However, the PDSI (a index of draught severity) is much more intense (lower PDI more severe). The reason for that is the temperature is much warmer.

In this case we have a phenomenon that is tied to both natural changes and AGW; much like the changes in the Arctic Ice Cover. AGW acts to push both systems into extreme levels of variation.

Cotillion - have you checked that link for '63? It was worse in Oxford, the nearest point to me, than '47 ~ and I remember '63, but not '47!
Sounds like AVO is getting some concern.....

Redoubt Volcano Latest Observations
2009-02-09 13:20:13

Unrest at Redoubt Volcano continues, though no eruption has yet occurred. Volcanic tremor is ongoing with variable amplitudes, and small discrete earthquakes are occurring at a rate of one to several events per hour. Clear webcam images today show a steam plume rising up to several hundred feet above the crater.
The weather here in Oz has been appalling over the last week or so, and it is heartwrenching to see the effects of the fires in Vic. At the moment we are being blessed with cooler weather but more high temperatures are forecast for the w/end, there are still fires burning out of control and whole areas the police have declared crime scenes.

Victorian bushfire death toll soars still higher
Article from: The Daily Telegraph

February 10, 2009 09:00am

AT least 173 people are dead and 24 blazes remain out of control as Victoria's bushfire crisis enters its fourth day.

The state of Victoria is devastated after the worst natural disaster in the nation's history.

The death toll from the bushfires is certain to rise further as more remains are found in more than 700 burnt-out homes strewn through the 330,000ha so far razed.

Police today revealed details of a task force to investigate the fires, pledging to hunt down arsonists behind some of the blazes.

Most of the latest people confirmed dead were killed in the small towns of Strathewen and St Andrews, on Melbourne's bushy northeastern fringe.

There are now 22 people confirmed dead at St Andrews, a town with a population of about 1,500 people. Strathewen, with only 450 people prior to the bushfires, lost 26 residents to the inferno that swept through on Saturday.

Whole towns have been declared crime scenes, with fears many of the fires that broke out on Saturday and claimed so many lives were deliberately lit.

Meanwhile Australia has been disgusted by reports of looters raiding deserted homes.

But police say they are closing in on an arsonist thought responsible for the deadly Churchill-Jeeralang fire in Gippsland and recent fires at nearby Boolarra.

Fire authorities fear the worst of the fires could take weeks to contain.

Specialist teams used in the aftermath of the Bali bombings have been recruited for the gruesome task of locating and identifying victims of the fires.

Meanwhile, Premier John Brumby has announced a royal commission to examine the state's emergency response and possibly review the longstanding "stay and defend or leave early" policy aimed at mitigating the risk of fatalities from bushfires.

This morning he said communications "did not work as well as they should" and pledged to pursue a warning system.

The largest of the fires, known as the Kinglake Complex, has consumed 220,000ha of land and more than 550 homes and has killed 140 of the 166 confirmed victims - including those at St Andrews, Strathewen and nearby Kinglake.

Thirty-five people perished at Kinglake - the greatest single loss of life in these fires - when a ferocious wall of flame swept straight up the heavily timbered Great Dividing Range, taking all in its path.

It has cut a terrible swathe across Victoria's central highlands, from Wandong, south as far as St Andrews and east and north through Marysville, Taggerty and Flowerdale towards the upper Goulburn Valley.

Department of Sustainability and Environment spokeswoman Nina Cullen said residents in an area on Healesville's southeastern outskirts were under heavy ember attack from a 150ha fire at Mt Riddell, about 4km southeast of the town.

It was a similar situation at Toolangi, a few kilometres north, where a 50ha fire was bombarding the tiny mountain village with embers.

"There was a water outage for Healesville residents (late Monday evening) but that has since been rectified and water supply is back on," Ms Cullen said.

"There hasn't been any reported losses at this point."

Both fires were being fanned by a strong southerly breeze.

The Beechworth blaze has burnt 30,000ha and continues to threaten the communities of Dederang, Gundowring, Gundowring Upper, Kergunyah South, Glenn Creek and Running Creek. Residents in those communities have been asked to enact their fire plans.

"At the Dederang area particularly during the day, the fire significantly escalated,"

"Work has occurred on the north side of that fire, and that activity has gone extremely well.

"There remains a few spot fires but the crews on the ground are working really hard and getting somewhere on that fire. The threat has now been downgraded," Ms Cullen said.

The deadly Churchill-Jeeralang fire in Gippsland, which has claimed 21 lives, was threatening the township of Won Wron and remains out of control but has been downgraded.

Police have confirmed that they believe the same man who lit the devastating Delburn Complex of fires around nearby Boolarra last month, destroying 29 houses and more than 6,000ha, is the same person responsible for the Churchill blaze.

It's expected police will on Tuesday release an image of a man sought for questioning over the fires.

"We'll soon be in a position to provide face images of people we believe responsible," Morwell Detective Sergeant Brett Kahan told The Age.

In a win for firefighters, the grass fire that has ravaged about 9,500ha near Redesdale, south of Bendigo, was contained by late Monday.

The weather may pose further problems for firefighters, particularly north of the divide.

Isolated showers are predicted on and south of the divide on Tuesday but it will remain dry in the north.

Moderate to fresh southwest to southerly winds are forecast, with very high to extreme fire danger in the north.

A fire weather warning is in place for the northern country and north central forecast districts, with humidity down to 14 per cent and winds up to 45km/h.

More than 240 firefighters from NSW, 95 from the ACT, 94 from Tasmania and 69 from South Australia have joined Victorian crews, along with disaster identification experts from around the nation.

A further 22 firefighters from Western Australia are expected to arrive in Melbourne on Tuesday.

"Hell and all its fury has visited the good people of Victoria in the past 24 hours," Australian prime minister Mr Rudd said during a visit to the fire-ravaged Yarra Valley.

"Many good people now lie dead. Many others lie injured.

"This is an appalling tragedy for Victoria but, because of that, it's an appalling tragedy for the nation."

"The nation grieves with Victoria tonight."
Augustine Volcano - island webcam

Wet weather a Catch-22 for battling Victoria bushfires
Article from: AAP
February 10, 2009

THE rain falling in parts of NSW is not all good news for crews battling 25 bushfires across NSW, the Rural Fire Service says.

Many of the fires are still burning out of control despite cooler conditions and light, steady rain.

Hundreds of firefighters will take advantage of today's weather, which will prove to be both a help and a hindrance.

"It's a bit of Catch-22," an RFS spokesman said.

"Whilst it definitely does slow the spread of a fire, it doesn't allow us to do any backburning operations."

No homes or property are under threat but the fires are burning in rugged bushland that can be difficult to access in wet weather.

"It can make the fire trails very slippery and impassable for some of our units (vehicles)," the spokesman said.

"It just sort of puts everything on pause."

The RFS welcomed today's wet weather, but it would only give firefighters a break and not a solution.

"It gives us a chance to have a bit of a breather on some of these fires but it definitely won't put itout," he said.

A fire in the Bega Valley, near the far south NSW coast, has ravaged more than 2,300ha in the South East Forest National Park.

It started with a lightning strike on January 24 and about 70 firefighters are working to contain the blaze.

A fire in the Deua National Park on the south coast has torched more than 900ha and is still burning out of control.

No property is under threat but nearby residents have been urged to clear all flammable materials from their properties.

More than 1800ha have been destroyed by a fire near Singleton, in the Hunter region.

The blaze is centred in the Wollemi National Park and is burning out of control but fire crews are working with the assistance of waterbombing aircraft and tractors to contain it.

Nearly 300ha of the Brisbane Waters National Park, at Peats Ridge on the Central Coast, have been destroyed by a fire that started on Saturday and spread quickly.

Homes were under threat at one point but crews have now contained the fire.

A 31-year-old man was refused bail in Gosford Local Court on Monday after he faced arson charges over a weekend blaze at Kariong, near Somersby, on NSW's Central Coast.

Jason Nicholas Farrell, 31, from Killarney Vale, was charged on Sunday with intentionally causing fire and being reckless as to its spread, and setting fire to the property of another person or the crown.
Quoting TampaSpin:
A Rod just admitted of taking Roids.......no doubt.....LOL


snort -- so now it's official -- HA!
Frontal triple point over the plains region. Gives you your rain,ice, and snow

If we humans think, that in the big scheme of things we are in charge..... we should look closely to the events in AussieLand and be HUMBLED -- Ultimately we are but specks --

Lady Rebound -- she's accenting my point as I type.

Mother Nature Runs the Show... it is foolish for us to think otherwise
Drak -- we're looking at very dry, parched, freeze dried grass, woodlands and pastures here in SWFL & Texas

I game for RAIN - but let's loose the ice and snow
SWFL Cold Weather WAVES
Really flat this morning. The latest models are showing a better S fetch for Wednesday and now it's a pretty sure bet to see some knee to waist high S windswell at the best S facers on Wednesday afternoon. That gradient relaxes after that and Thursday looks knee high range. So a brief shot a ridable waves coming for mid-week on the GC.
Quoting Cotillion:


Milton Keynes?

The most soulless place on Earth?

LOL!!!!

As Terry Pratchett and Neil Gaiman explained in "Good Omens," "An angel made Edinburgh, and the Devil made Glasgow. Neither claimed responsibility for Milton Keynes, but both claimed it a success."

As for the Australian Fires, it's very sad and my thoughts are with them.
they finished the PSRs for the Atlantic unless they decide to add that Subtropical Storm... what do you guys think the chances are of them adding that to the database?
This whole Aussie fire thing reminds me of the CA fires from last summer. Some of the descriptions sound like the "fire tornados" people talked about last summer in the San Diego area.

I really feel it for these people. This kind of disaster is so difficult to prepare for. At least the modern weather prediction systems make it somewhat easier to prepare for nor'easters and hurricanes. These fires seem much less predictable by comparison.

Wow.
Its puffing harder it seems......WoW what a Picture......

Australia declares bushfire disaster a crime scene
Mon Feb 9, 2009 6:27pm EST

By Mark Bendeich Link

SYDNEY, Feb 10 (Reuters) - Australian police treated the country's entire bushfire disaster zone as a crime scene on Tuesday as investigators combed through a blackened wasteland to find clues to the culprits behind the country's deadliest fires.

Arson investigators began their work even as about 25 fires still raged across southern Victoria, including some of the hardest-hit areas north of Melbourne where so far 173 people have been confirmed dead, many burnt in cars and their own homes.
Quoting TampaSpin:
Its puffing harder it seems......WoW what a Picture......


herm.....those low level clouds weren't there 20 minutes ago, hard to tell with the peak obscured like that if all of that is just low level clouds...
Quoting pipelines:

herm.....those low level clouds weren't there 20 minutes ago, hard to tell with the peak obscured like that if all of that is just low level clouds...


Yep i know i saved the pic from 20 minutes ago.....tha was some picture....
Having lived in Melbourne, this is having a direct affect on me. I have very close friends there and they have told that they were terrified but were spared so far. This is Australias Katrina/Rita/Wilma, etc. It will cost them billions of dollars in the end. Please consider giving aid to these people in any way you can. I am surprised that nothing from our Govt has even been mentioned.
Quoting Drakoen:
Frontal triple point over the plains region. Gives you your rain,ice, and snow



Seldom does one see a warm front to the North of the Cold Front cutting from the South like that.....pretty cool...

Having lived in Melbourne, this is having a direct affect on me. I have very close friends there and they have told that they were terrified but were spared so far. This is Australias Katrina/Rita/Wilma, etc. It will cost them billions of dollars in the end. Please consider giving aid to these people in any way you can. I am surprised that nothing from our Govt has even been mentioned.


7. Patrap 10:28 AM CST on February 09, 2009

ReliefWeb:

Australian government assistance for Victorian bush fires

Source: Government of Australia

Date: 08 Feb 2009

The Victorian fires have been extremely devastating and this is an extraordinary natural disaster with high loss of life and property.

Our thoughts and prayers are with those families who are suffering from these cruel and horrific events.

Our gratitude goes out to the fire-fighters and other emergency services workers, many of them volunteers, who have endured the unbearable heat to help defend life and property.

Centrelink family liaison officers will be made available in relief centres in Victoria to provide counselling services.

Given the devastation caused by the bushfires in the state of Victoria, the Australian Government Disaster Recovery Payment will be made available to those people adversely affected by the fires. It is $1,000 for eligible adults and an addition $400 per child.

The Australian Government Disaster Recovery Payment will be paid to those seriously injured and hospitalised as well as who have lost their homes, or whose principal place of residence has been destroyed or seriously damaged, as a direct result of the bushfires.

The Payment will also be available to an immediate family member of those who lost their lives in the fire.

It will be paid through Centrelink and available from Monday. The Australian Government Victorian fires hotline 180 2211 has been established to take claims and enquiries.

Centrelink staff will also be in relief centres today to take claims for the Australian Government Disaster Recovery Payment.

The Australian Government will also provide funeral assistance for the immediate family of a person who has lost their life as a direct result of the fires. This assistance will be up to $5,000.

Authorisation has been provided to deploy twelve Army bulldozers and support crews to help fire protection efforts near Yea in north-east Victoria.

The Defence Force personnel will help build containment lines surrounding the town, which is being seriously threatened with fire.

In addition, the Australian Government is also providing 150 portable beds or mattresses to relief centres in the Baw Baw Shire in West Gippsland.

With the extreme conditions throughout Victoria, it is essential that emergency workers are able to get sufficient rest to continue their tireless work.

The bedding is being delivered to Victoria as fast as possible.

The Rudd and Brumby Governments are working closely together to ensure that the people and emergency workers in Victoria have all the support they require during this difficult time.

This assistance is over and above the support that will be provided by the Australian Government under the long standing Natural Disaster Relief and Recovery Arrangements.

Through these arrangements, partial reimbursement is provided to the Victorian Government to provide assistance such as grants for food, clothing, accommodation, emergency housing repairs and for expenditure on public infrastructure restoration.

The Australian Government is currently continuing to monitor the impacts and will be considering what further assistance can be provided to individuals, families and communities, especially through community organisations that are responding so well to this devastating event.

The Australian Government is working with the Victorian Government to establish a Victorian Bushfire Appeal for people to make donation to assist those affected by the fires. More information on how to donate will be made available as soon as possible.

More information on Australian Government assistance will be available at http://www.disasterassist.gov.au Link



8. Patrap 10:31 AM CST on February 09, 2009

ReliefWeb:

Australia: Wild Fire - Feb 2009
Updates on Australia affected by the Australia: Wild Fire - Feb 2009 emergency. GLIDE No. WF-2009-000035-AUS Link


(MAP) Australia: Wild Fires (as of 08 Feb 2009) - Location Map Link
Can someone please tell me
where PERTH is in relations to
this horrific fire?
Australia resumes search for fire victims BBC: Link


Prime Minister Rudd announced an aid package of A$10m ($7m, £4.5m).

He said immediate cash payments would be available for victims, and announced the army would help in the recovery efforts.

An emotional Mr Rudd described as "numbing" the numbers of dead, and warned: "I fear they will rise further."

Asked about suspicions that arsonists were responsible for at least some of the fires, he said: "There are no words to describe it other than mass murder."
Quoting Patrap:

Having lived in Melbourne, this is having a direct affect on me. I have very close friends there and they have told that they were terrified but were spared so far. This is Australias Katrina/Rita/Wilma, etc. It will cost them billions of dollars in the end. Please consider giving aid to these people in any way you can. I am surprised that nothing from our Govt has even been mentioned.


7. Patrap 10:28 AM CST on February 09, 2009

ReliefWeb:

Australian government assistance for Victorian bush fires

Source: Government of Australia

Date: 08 Feb 2009

The Victorian fires have been extremely devastating and this is an extraordinary natural disaster with high loss of life and property.

Our thoughts and prayers are with those families who are suffering from these cruel and horrific events.

Our gratitude goes out to the fire-fighters and other emergency services workers, many of them volunteers, who have endured the unbearable heat to help defend life and property.

Centrelink family liaison officers will be made available in relief centres in Victoria to provide counselling services.

Given the devastation caused by the bushfires in the state of Victoria, the Australian Government Disaster Recovery Payment will be made available to those people adversely affected by the fires. It is $1,000 for eligible adults and an addition $400 per child.

The Australian Government Disaster Recovery Payment will be paid to those seriously injured and hospitalised as well as who have lost their homes, or whose principal place of residence has been destroyed or seriously damaged, as a direct result of the bushfires.

The Payment will also be available to an immediate family member of those who lost their lives in the fire.

It will be paid through Centrelink and available from Monday. The Australian Government Victorian fires hotline 180 2211 has been established to take claims and enquiries.

Centrelink staff will also be in relief centres today to take claims for the Australian Government Disaster Recovery Payment.

The Australian Government will also provide funeral assistance for the immediate family of a person who has lost their life as a direct result of the fires. This assistance will be up to $5,000.

Authorisation has been provided to deploy twelve Army bulldozers and support crews to help fire protection efforts near Yea in north-east Victoria.

The Defence Force personnel will help build containment lines surrounding the town, which is being seriously threatened with fire.

In addition, the Australian Government is also providing 150 portable beds or mattresses to relief centres in the Baw Baw Shire in West Gippsland.

With the extreme conditions throughout Victoria, it is essential that emergency workers are able to get sufficient rest to continue their tireless work.

The bedding is being delivered to Victoria as fast as possible.

The Rudd and Brumby Governments are working closely together to ensure that the people and emergency workers in Victoria have all the support they require during this difficult time.

This assistance is over and above the support that will be provided by the Australian Government under the long standing Natural Disaster Relief and Recovery Arrangements.

Through these arrangements, partial reimbursement is provided to the Victorian Government to provide assistance such as grants for food, clothing, accommodation, emergency housing repairs and for expenditure on public infrastructure restoration.

The Australian Government is currently continuing to monitor the impacts and will be considering what further assistance can be provided to individuals, families and communities, especially through community organisations that are responding so well to this devastating event.

The Australian Government is working with the Victorian Government to establish a Victorian Bushfire Appeal for people to make donation to assist those affected by the fires. More information on how to donate will be made available as soon as possible.

More information on Australian Government assistance will be available at http://www.disasterassist.gov.au Link



8. Patrap 10:31 AM CST on February 09, 2009

ReliefWeb:

Australia: Wild Fire - Feb 2009
Updates on Australia affected by the Australia: Wild Fire - Feb 2009 emergency. GLIDE No. WF-2009-000035-AUS Link


(MAP) Australia: Wild Fires (as of 08 Feb 2009) - Location Map Link


Thank you! This is very helpful.
Here ya go Emmy..







Perth is in far Western Australia,out of the danger
93
Emmy, Perth is about 2000 miles West of the fires!
I like it this week here in FL

Nice and Warm!
thanks Pat - appreciate it
brings some comfort
this is so horrific
Yes,.. undoubtedly Australia's worst Disaster in Decades.

We send our deepest sympathies and Hope for Quick assistance and Global help.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/after-the-hellfire-grim-news-for-families-20090210-82lo.html

This is where I get my up-to-date information.

Thanks to everyone who has posted.
166 people died in Australia and it's their worst natural disaster ever? Wow, not to downplay the tragedy but that's a pretty impressive low number for a "worst ever".
Thank you for posting and thanks to your friend.... I passed the info to friends in Alaska but forgot to post it on the blog!
Quoting animalrsq:
Beachfoxx asked yesterday about protecting animals from volcanic ash. My friend who did animal rescue for the volcano in Chile last year answered by email but I don't know if it was posted. Just FYI for those of you who were wondering.

Beachfoxx, I am an animal disaster responder and worked the volcano in Chatien, Chili this past May. Good question about how to protect pets from ash fallout. The only real way is to remove them from the area, but this may be hard to do if you have large animals. After that, bring them indoors and seal all outside air intakes the best you can. Plastic sheeting and duct tape is good or using sheets and duct tape can work too. If you have a barn, that's a bunch of plastic and duct tape. Close the barn doors, outside stall doors, loft doors, etc. If you are evacuating from an ash fallout area, Put your pets in a carrier and cover it with a sheet and tape that down. Of course you don't want to use plastic in this instance!! But you can use plastic for horse trailers or livestock trailers as long as you leave some type of airflow. Keep some saline eye rinse around and flush their eyes several times a day, if you can't find any, use fresh water. Ash is very abrasive and can injure their corneas. If you are sheltering at home, seal off the house the same way and try not to take them outside if at all possible. Set up a Potty area inside with papers, they will use it eventually!! If you do have to take them out, do so for only VERY short amounts of time and then back inside. Rinse their eyes and brush the ask out of their fur to they don't ingest it when they lick or clean themselves. Make sure you rinse the pads of their feet too!! Remember that ash will contaminate all the outside water supplies and any open food containers, uncovered hay or feed bins. Cattle or livestock should be brought into and area where there is no grass and only fed fresh hay or feed and that should only be what they will consume in a few minutes. If they eat grass that is covered in ash, you could have a big problem, also ponds, lakes and rivers will be full of ash, so you need to provide fresh clean water for them and keep that water source clean and clear of ash. If you are paying close attention to the wind direction, it is possible to time outdoor feedings or walking when the wind shifts away from you or is calm. I noticed in Chili that sometimes we would get pounded with ash, but a few minutes later the wind would calm or shift just a bit and it was much better. Hope this helps with your question. Feel free to post on whatever blog you asked the question on. My friend sent me a copy of your question and I don't know where it was originally posted. But it is a great question and one that I have been worrying about since I saw the first reports of the volcano in Alaska.
I have a tendency to agree with him!

My thoughts are with the Australians as they deal with this horror...
Quoting presslord:
I saw the Ausrailian Prime Minister call it "...mass murder..."
Quoting pipelines:
166 people died in Australia and it's their worst natural disaster ever? Wow, not to downplay the tragedy but that's a pretty impressive low number for a "worst ever".


At least 173 so far, and could rise further. Over 300 if you include the suspected fatalities from the heat wave.
Interesting Dinner conversation this evening...
I looked outside... and it was *^%$* snowing again.. just a light flurry.

SWMBO'ed made the following comment, which pleasantly surprised me.

Its "Evy" (SF) using her Witch Craft on us.

Hmm does SWMBO'ed know something we don't?
Sorry to interrupt the discussion but I HAD to interject a funny story...

My stepson called my cell phone last night (he is nineteen, a sophomore in college). Didn't leave a message. I text him today to ask what is wrong - whats' up - did he need something. I mention to his dad tonight that I got a call - he would normally call the house phone or his dad's cell...something is up that he wants to talk to me alone.

His Dad calls him this evening before dinner.

I hear a one-sided conversation..."uh huh...weather underground...who is speaking at your college?"

I am piping in "OH IS JEFF MASTERS GOING TO BE THERE"

Other part of the one-sided conversation..."no...no Melissa is not involved in THAT weather underground...totally different and you don't have to worry -no - no - she is not involved in that...no - they are watching weather...that was years ago...this is not the same thing."

So apparently we are all terrorists. Guess we're blowing hurricanes all over the place (wishcasting) and global warming is our fault too. Had to giggle. thought it might make you guys smile too...

Cheers
Quoting pipelines:
166 people died in Australia and it's their worst natural disaster ever? Wow, not to downplay the tragedy but that's a pretty impressive low number for a "worst ever".


Not even close

Quoting Orcasystems:


Not even close


that makes more sense, I wonder why the Australian government is dubbing it the deadliest ever
Quoting pipelines:


that makes more sense, I wonder why the Australian government is dubbing it the deadliest ever


Deadliest fire maybe...
and only because you have people relighting things... other then that... they have had much bigger fires also. So before you jump on the GW bandwagon.. read about January 1939. You have to remember, its the middle of the summer there right now.
112 Days To the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
81 Days if you want to start considering May part of Hurricane Season. (After Ana, Andrea, and Arthur)
Either that or 81 days in till you start stalking up again on emergency supplies for Hurricane season.
Better to get them then than in August right before a Hurricane hits.
Quoting Babsjohnson:
Having lived in Melbourne, this is having a direct affect on me. I have very close friends there and they have told that they were terrified but were spared so far. This is Australias Katrina/Rita/Wilma, etc. It will cost them billions of dollars in the end. Please consider giving aid to these people in any way you can. I am surprised that nothing from our Govt has even been mentioned.
Babs, I'm fortunate that my Oz-dwelling friends live in Perth, which so far hasn't had this kind of firestorm.

BTW, I am assuming u mean the US gov't?
113. Inyo
that 'heat burst' sounds like the Sundowners we get here in Santa Barbara.... such as the one that spread the Tea Fire this year.

Also I thought La Nina brought wet conditions to most of Australia?
114. Inyo
Quoting pipelines:
166 people died in Australia and it's their worst natural disaster ever? Wow, not to downplay the tragedy but that's a pretty impressive low number for a "worst ever".


well, Australia has about 1/15th the population of the United States so I guess per capita, it would be like about 2,500 people dying, making it similar to Katrina and September 11th in therms of percentage killed
i guess aussies have a new specis over there the human dingbat thats what it is relighten them fires
116. Inyo
well as a resident of California, where those same dingbats sometimes appear, that is one species I wouldn't mind going extinct
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i guess aussies have a new specis over there the human dingbat thats what it is relighten them fires


If true, that would be criminals... and I, for one, say eye for an eye on that one...
Sorry, I had a close relative that died in a fire... has to be near the top on the worst ways to go...

yeah those human dingbats are a world wide problem no solution some things will never change thats just the way it is

let it be
And, inyo, I keep wanting to say, and since you're here, that I, personally, always appreciate your input.

Always a respectful discussion.
Quoting melwerle:
Sorry to interrupt the discussion but I HAD to interject a funny story...

My stepson called my cell phone last night (he is nineteen, a sophomore in college). Didn't leave a message. I text him today to ask what is wrong - whats' up - did he need something. I mention to his dad tonight that I got a call - he would normally call the house phone or his dad's cell...something is up that he wants to talk to me alone.

His Dad calls him this evening before dinner.

I hear a one-sided conversation..."uh huh...weather underground...who is speaking at your college?"

I am piping in "OH IS JEFF MASTERS GOING TO BE THERE"

Other part of the one-sided conversation..."no...no Melissa is not involved in THAT weather underground...totally different and you don't have to worry -no - no - she is not involved in that...no - they are watching weather...that was years ago...this is not the same thing."

So apparently we are all terrorists. Guess we're blowing hurricanes all over the place (wishcasting) and global warming is our fault too. Had to giggle. thought it might make you guys smile too...

Cheers


Great story.

Hopefully, it wouldn't have been "cool" for you to be so associated.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
112 Days To the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
81 Days if you want to start considering May part of Hurricane Season. (After Ana, Andrea, and Arthur)
Either that or 81 days in till you start stalking up again on emergency supplies for Hurricane season.
Better to get them then than in August right before a Hurricane hits.


You so ready for eddye? LOL. ;)

At least he's terse.
121. No not cool at all - he was actually calling up to warn his old crazy loon stepmother that she was involved with terrorists....

:)
Sorry to interject but wow, this system today is really impressive, nice unstable wave nearing mature, pretty cool stuff.

107 in the middle of the night is bizarre. Some extreme weather even without the fires.
Quoting Seastep:
And, inyo, I keep wanting to say, and since you're here, that I, personally, always appreciate your input.

Always a respectful discussion.
.
Quoting Spetrm:
Sorry to interject but wow, this system today is really impressive, nice unstable wave nearing mature, pretty cool stuff.



Don't be silly. Good stuff. I love that source with the light pollution feedback.

On that note: Link

FL is better than NJ, but always marvel at the stars when I'm away from heavy light sources.

Folks who haven't been away from it have no idea and are missing out.
Quoting Seastep:


You so ready for eddye? LOL. ;)

At least he's terse.

LOL!!! If Eddye had his way SE Florida would have been destroyed and school canceled for months.
"Is Fay going to hit SE Florida?"
"Is Gustav going to hit SE Florida?"
"Is Ike Going to hit SE Florida?"
"Is Kyle going to hit SE Florida?"
"Is Omar going to hit SE Florida?"
"Is Paloma going to hit SE Florida?"
I am already practicing how I am going to undertake arguments about poofcasting and wishcasting.
Quoting CybrTeddy:

LOL!!! If Eddye had his way SE Florida would have been destroyed and school canceled for months.
"Is Fay going to hit SE Florida?"
"Is Gustav going to hit SE Florida?"
"Is Ike Going to hit SE Florida?"
"Is Kyle going to hit SE Florida?"
"Is Omar going to hit SE Florida?"
"Is Paloma going to hit SE Florida?"
I am already practicing how I am going to undertake arguments about poofcasting and wishcasting.


Sort of makes you miss JFV
Quoting CybrTeddy:
112 Days To the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season.
81 Days if you want to start considering May part of Hurricane Season. (After Ana, Andrea, and Arthur)
Either that or 81 days in till you start stalking up again on emergency supplies for Hurricane season.
Better to get them then than in August right before a Hurricane hits.


112 days is closer than it seems
CyberTeddy - ironic that you're on... finally pulled the HD out of my defunct laptop and pulled my favorite avatar off.

Who wants to play "Identify the avatar?"

And, orca, if I can vote.... like the halo one... and changing it up screws with my head. Pick one please. ;)

I really shouldn't say favorite... only...

This and one other site... and it's not a blog.
Wildfires and Brushfires are starting to break out over Central and in the Middle of Florida......these freezes have killed vegetation and now its dried out......problems coming big time...
I hear ya, Tampa. Usually it's us down here.

All FL could use some rain.
Quoting Seastep:
CyberTeddy - ironic that you're on... finally pulled the HD out of my defunct laptop and pulled my favorite avatar off.

Who wants to play "Identify the avatar?"

And, orca, if I can vote.... like the halo one... and changing it up screws with my head. Pick one please. ;)



Thats was the general consensus.. so I will keep it
Quoting Seastep:
I hear ya, Tampa. Usually it's us down here.

All FL could use some rain.


These freezes we have had very far south is bad news upcoming with the dry season looming....La Nina usually means a dryer than normal spring for Florida also.....So, trouble is coming.....
The Stimulus package that Obama wants versus what the dam House and Senate has put together are 2 different beast....One could sense his frustrations........The House and Senate have to get this right and get a package in place that will make an immediate impact....This package just does not do so.......IMO.
Australian Bushfire Donations

Ok, here is what I could find out.

Australian Red Cross and/or Australian Salvation Army
No luck using the on-line payment form - only works from inside Australia. However you can send a money order (Just check their websites for address)

International Red Cross and/or International Salvation Army
This seems the best way to go. Easy to use on-line payment system (No Paypal, darn it). Once you indicate the country where you live, it automatically uses that country's currency. USA uses US Dollars

I particularly liked the Salvation Army. They had a web page specifically for the bushfires and were pretty specific as to what they were doing.

One more thing. Just a point of interest. The currency exchange rate is 1USD=1.48AUD


EDITED : Added links
Quoting TampaSpin:
The Stimulus package that Obama wants versus what the dam House and Senate has put together are 2 different beast....One could sense his frustrations........The House and Senate have to get this right and get a package in place that will make an immediate impact....This package just does not do so.......IMO.


Tim, have you ever thought of running yourself? From most of your statements its obvious in your own opinion you are far brighter then they are.
Salvation Army does a great job....and are exemplary stewards of donations.....
Quoting Orcasystems:


Tim, have you ever thought of running yourself? From most of your statements its obvious in your own opinion you are far brighter then they are.


Been there before with my Father....he lived in that world......LOL...as did we......LOL
Orca....I love Tampa...and this is in no way a reflection on him....

but...

I worked on Capitol Hill for 12 years...and I can tell ya...

being smarter than a bunch of politicians is kinda like being the prettiest girl in the Accounting Department....
Quoting presslord:
Orca....I love Tampa...and this is in no way a reflection on him....

but...

I worked on Capitol Hill for 12 years...and I can tell ya...

being smarter than a bunch of politicians is kinda like being the prettiest girl in the Accounting Department....


LMAO.

You are truly priceless, press.

Thanks for all your good work.
Quoting presslord:
Orca....I love Tampa...and this is in no way a reflection on him....

but...

I worked on Capitol Hill for 12 years...and I can tell ya...

being smarter than a bunch of politicians is kinda like being the prettiest girl in the Accounting Department....


Press thats for sure....My DAD was one of the most honest man i know and things in that world litterly ate him alive from the inside...I felt bad for him often.
And, if I may rant, Biden gave what? $2K to charity?

That sticks in my craw real bad.

Yes, over double that and nowhere near the income.

Easy to spend other people's money.

Sorry, couldn't help myself on that one.

Both charities are good stewards.
Maybe some day i will tap the water as my Dad did but, just not now.......
I must be missing something about american politics. You elect them... then cut them down for doing what you elected them to do.

Its to confusing. You get elected PM in Canada.. you are in control, and answer to the electorate, not two other levels of Gov.
Orca....we cut them down when they DON'T do what we elected them to do.....
G'Evening all....
Thanks KEH for posting the links and the exchange rate!

BTW, Did you know its snowing on Orca?


Quoting KEHCharleston:
Australian Bushfire Donations

Ok, here is what I could find out.

Australian Red Cross and/or Australian Salvation Army
No luck using the on-line payment form - only works from inside Australia. However you can send a money order (Just check their websites for address)

International Red Cross and/or International Salvation Army
This seems the best way to go. Easy to use on-line payment system (No Paypal, darn it). Once you indicate the country where you live, it automatically uses that country's currency. USA uses US Dollars

I particularly liked the Salvation Army. They had a web page specifically for the bushfires and were pretty specific as to what they were doing.

One more thing. Just a point of interest. The currency exchange rate is 1USD=1.48AUD


EDITED : Added links
I think I will drop out of this conversation before I get into trouble.. politics and charitable donations are two flammable subjects.
well...I'm off to get my beauty rest.... it will soon be bikini season.....
Hey Foxx
Quoting Beachfoxx:
G'Evening all....
Thanks KEH for posting the links and the exchange rate!

BTW, Did you know its snowing on Orca?


Yep... I am doing a Happy Dance
Oh joy! Oh joy!
Yikes - Never though of charitable donations as being a flammable subject, but upon reflection, I can see how it might be.
Quoting Orcasystems:
I must be missing something about american politics. You elect them... then cut them down for doing what you elected them to do.

Its to confusing. You get elected PM in Canada.. you are in control, and answer to the electorate, not two other levels of Gov.


NO you hit it on the nose....that is the frustration of being President in the US.....you can't really get anything done fiscal unless you can convience 2 other branches of our Government that it is a good policy.....That is tuff....no matter what party you have as in most cases it must have a 2/3 majority vote in most cases......That is often very tuff.
Quoting presslord:
well...I'm off to get my beauty rest.... it will soon be bikini season.....


Double Yikes!!
Quoting presslord:
well...I'm off to get my beauty rest it will soon be bikini season.....


NOOOOOoooooo.....

I'm off myself.

Good talking all. Thanks.

Not one guess on my avatar?
Moonrock????
Quoting Seastep:


NOOOOOoooooo.....

I'm off myself.

Good talking all. Thanks.

Not one guess on my avatar?
Seastep - Mount Evans???

Night all
SeaStep its pic from Planet Mars......
Ahhh... gotta be more specific, Tampa. (good guesses all)

CyberTeddy?
Think orca....
Noone misses JFV! lol
Removed... too easy a hint.
Time for shuteye.

Goodnight all.

That last non-rescinded hint should do it, but that's easy to say when you know the answer.
Quoting Spetrm:
Sorry to interject but wow, this system today is really impressive, nice unstable wave nearing mature, pretty cool stuff.


yep its a beauty with an even nicer beauty following behind for tommorrow late afternoon early evening
hey seastep the piture is it the
barninger crater near winslow arizona
Quoting presslord:
well...I'm off to get my beauty rest.... it will soon be bikini season.....


The sentences seem to be incongruous...
Whale Rock in CA.

Quoting Seastep:
Think orca....
a more spring time like weather pattern with storms diving off the west to desert sw then trackin east north east we may be in for a run of storms here
If February is here can spring be far behind?!
Happy New Year everyone.
System may form in the Australian region in the coming days. (Darwin TWO, current location of the low at the time + Perth TWO with the low's future potential)

Tropical Cyclone Outlook (Northern Territory, Australia 125E-142E)
=============================================
A weak TROPICAL LOW [1003 hPa] is situated overland near Port Keats. At midday it was near latitude 14S, longitude 130E, about 200 km south southwest of Darwin. The LOW is expected to move westwards close to the north Kimberley coast, before moving further west into Indian Ocean late in the week.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=====================================
Wednesday: Low
Thursday: Low
Friday: Low

------

Tropical Cyclone Outlook (Western Australia 110E-125E)
=================================
TC Freddy continues to slowly weaken west of 110E...

Numerical guidance is suggesting that a low may form near the north Kimberley during Wednesday and move west of 125E, off the west Kimberley coast, during Thursday. The system has some prospect of reaching cyclone intensity late on
Thursday but is much more likely to develop on Friday or Saturday.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
==============================
Wednesday: Low
Thursday: Moderate
Friday: High
Early Birds awakening..Temp is 57 degrees --the day is starting out perfectly!
There is a "Moderate" threat of severe weather today.
Those of you in the warned area please monitor the situation throughout the day:



Photobucket

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0502 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED OVER THE ARKLATEX LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG...LONG-TRACK TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE ARKLATEX LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
EASTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

A POWERFUL WINTER STORM SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER COLORADO VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY TONIGHT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE TODAY OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN IN ADVANCE OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT TO CREATE A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY AFTERNOON GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS.

RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
ALONG A DRYLINE FROM NEAR OR SOUTH OF OKLAHOMA CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE
DALLAS-FORT WORTH METROPLEX AS THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM
BEGINS TO EXERT AN INFLUENCE ON THE DESTABILIZING AIR MASS. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND
EXPANDING WARM SECTOR SUGGESTS THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FEW SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG...POTENTIALLY LONG-TRACKED TORNADOES.
THIS TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE GREATEST OVER SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS...WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
INTO NORTHWEST LOUISIANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

ADDITIONAL STORMS...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF A SQUALL LINE...ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO EASTERN
TEXAS TONIGHT AS A FAST-MOVING PACIFIC FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE.
WHILE A FEW TORNADOES AND SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS...IT APPEARS THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER HAZARD. THIS DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA OVERNIGHT.

THIS IS POTENTIALLY A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE
THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND
TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR
POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.


..MEAD.. 02/10/2009



Photobucket

A severe storm is sweeping Britain, bringing heavy rain, fierce winds and treacherous driving conditions.

The Environment Agency has issued 92 flood warnings, mostly in southern England, as police and firefighters handle hundreds of 999 calls.

In Somerset 20 people stranded in flood water were rescued from their cars.

Heavy snow has hit the Midlands, east Wales and Gloucestershire. In Gloucestershire, some 350 homes have been left without electricity.

Craig Woolhouse, head of flood defences at the Environment Agency, told the BBC a combination of weather conditions - including heavy rain, snow melt and "tide-locking" of rivers caused by high tides - was causing the flooding in southern England.

But he added: "We are not going to see severe flooding like we saw in summer 2007. Over the evening we have seen a number of isolated properties flooding and standing water on roads, but nowhere near the number of properties we had back in the summer [of 2007]."

Emily Highmore, from electricity distribution company Central Networks, said engineers were working to repair the system brought down by the severe weather.

She told BBC Radio 5 live: "What we're seeing is very large amounts of snow that are either landing on major bits of kit and giving us problems there, or it's actually weighing down tree branches and then bringing down overhead lines themselves."

As heavy rain swept across southern England, some areas recorded close to their monthly average rainfall for February in just 24 hours.

However the BBC weather centre said the worst of the rain and snow would have passed by late morning and mid-afternoon.

Bristol International Airport was closed overnight due to deteriorating weather conditions and snowfall, but following snow clearance the airport has re-opened and expects to operate its full flight schedule.

Fire crews in Somerset had to rescue about 20 people from their cars in flood water in Taunton and Yeovil and some rivers in the county, including the Cam in West Camel, have burst their banks.

Both bridges over the Severn Estuary were closed to traffic overnight after a number of vehicles were hit by falling ice, however they have now re-opened.

And 25 schools have closed in south Wales with snow and ice causing problems around the Blaenau Gwent and Torfaen areas.


STORM FALLOUT SNAPSHOT
250 emergency calls to Essex Police
160 fire and rescue callouts, West Sussex
70 fire and rescue callouts, East Sussex
Roads closed in Somerset, Devon, Cornwall, Hampshire and Sussex
52 Gloucestershire schools closed
4.7in (12cm) of snow Bristol
2.3in (6cm) of rain in Scilly Isles
Roads in Oxfordshire flooded, one school closed
Overnight flooding in Fareham, Hampshire
Main road on the Isle of Wight closed
50mph winds in coastal areas
Scottish temperatures fall to -14C

Tuesday was forecast to begin with rain, sleet, snow and strong winds in south-east England.

It is due to clear by noon to become mostly dry with sunny spells. There will be snow showers in western Scotland.

A severe flood warning has been issued for the Rivers Chelmer and Can at Chelmsford in Essex. There are a further 91 flood warnings in force across the South, South West, Midlands and East Anglia.

After a week which saw the UK's heaviest snowfall for 18 years, closing schools and crippling public transport, the rain has heightened the risk of flooding.

East Sussex Fire and Rescue Service said it had dealt with about 70 weather-related calls overnight as homes and gardens flooded in the heavy downpours.

Firefighters were called out to help motorists stranded in their vehicles in floodwater in Bexhill, Selmeston and Westham, near Eastbourne.

West Sussex Fire and Rescue Service reported handling 160 flooding calls from across the county, particularly from Selsey and Pagham on the coast. A spokeswoman said in one incident, crews were called to flooding at Worthing Hospital.

Firefighters helped residents pump water from their homes and protect properties with sandbags, she added.

Sussex Police said the force received 96 flood-related calls, with reports of flash flooding on the A21 south of Sedlescombe, near Battle.

Link
Good morning.
Very unusual weather, all over the place.
Southern UK under water. South Australia under smoke.
Here in Trinidad, 2.75" of rain in 24 hrs, and still coming down hard. More to come too.

Hi everyone its been a while.
Quoting pottery:
Good morning.
Very unusual weather, all over the place.
Southern UK under water. South Australia under smoke.
Here in Trinidad, 2.75" of rain in 24 hrs, and still coming down hard. More to come too.



I'm under the weather personally.

Though the weather here is bright and sunny. Although cold, it's been fairly decent here the last 2-3 days.
I just updated my blog if anyone would like to view....

TampaSpin's Weather Blog Link
Redoubt is stirring with more frequency this morning, further activity is expected today and possible eruption now imminent. "From The Examiner"
WOW - Pottery - that is a lot of rain -- more to come......must have mold growing on the walls.....you could send some of that over here...EmmyRose & I are parched, freezed-dried, and tinder for fire.....Texas & Florida need rain--- the cattlemen & farmers are under great stress.

Been waving my rainstick and dancing......haven't made a connection to the person in charge of rain just yet.
Cot -- you are here.... time to be OVER THE WEATHER!!! Put yourself in a ray of sun, close your eyes and think Florida....... it's waiting for me.............. just gotta graduate school and then....bum, bum, bum I'm going back and NO ORLANDO this time..... and I'm going in the winter so I can laugh at all my friends freezing their butts off back home.

PS. Spring is on her way.... she's whispering in my ear on this side of the ocean
The photo in Dr Masters header is by a WU member, Ozcazz.

I have just seen a photo she has posted. She is having to leave her home because the fire is heading her way...... it is a heart wrenching comment and paints how frightening this situation is.
Quoting fireflymom:
Redoubt is stirring with more frequency this morning, further activity is expected today and possible eruption now imminent. "From The Examiner"


I don't even live there and I am really getting antsy -- I want her to go to sleep........looking at her graphs is like checking your kid's report card...."what have you done today?" or like waiting for some critter to give birth.......

I really want a guarantee that the bloggers that live in AK will be safe....... I am SO CONCERNED FOR THEIR WELL-BEING
OZCAZZ!!! -- Sandi -- this is where I am not a strong person...... I get so caught up emotionally...... and so frustrated to be so helpless ( which is why www.Portlight.org gives me some relief - effective action)

This is already a candle morning -- going to get the candle lit w/prayer in mind for those in Alaska & those in Australia....
OMG, my heart breaks for these folks. The fear that must be going through them must be unbearable. Lets hope it stops very soon!
Towns brace against an ember attack
Article from: The Daily Telegraph

By Michelle Cazzulino

February 11, 2009

DOZENS of towns were on alert for ember attack last night as the death toll from Australia's worst-ever bushfires climbed even further

The toll of over 180 could be dwarfed by the final toll of Victoria's fire tragedy, amid fears that as many as 300 are dead.

Winds that rose during the afternoon were last night fanning the flames near Gembrook, in the Dandenong Ranges, as well as several other fires in the state's northeast and northwest.

Despite the ongoing threat, firefighters held out hope that calmer conditions expected overnight would enable them to set up control lines around the 26 blazes across the state.

With most of the affected townships still being treated as crime scenes, many remained off-limits to residents.

Assistant Commissioner Dannye Moloney said he was close to releasing a photofit of a suspected arsonist operating in the Churchill area in Gippsland just days before last Saturday's inferno.

A police taskforce has been formed to look at every fire site to determine if they were deliberately lit. Taskforce Phoenix will investigate all fire-related deaths and prepare briefs for the coroner.

In Canberra, Prime Minister Kevin Rudd pledged an extra $5 million to help fire victims as public donations topped $30 million, not including corporate and government donations.

Mr Rudd also appointed outgoing Victoria Police chief Christine Nixon to head a new body to direct bushfire recovery across the state.

In Victoria, a temporary morgue had been set up at the State Coronial Services Centre, but forensic experts yesterday warned that some victims had been too badly burnt to be positively identified.

Meanwhile, the Country Fire Authority was forced to defend itself after residents of Kinglake criticised emergency services for not giving them enough time to escape the inferno.

Tammy Reece, from Kinglake West, said she was away from her home when the fire broke out, but her partner and six children at the house were unaware of the threat.

"My partner never got any warning at all," Ms Reece said. "No one came past and said, 'Get out'. They should have got around and should have done more, that is the whole thing.

"They should have done a lot more."

CFA chief fire officer Russell Rees defended the firefighters and the policy of encouraging residents to "stay and defend" their properties He said the policy was based on sound evidence.

"It is the application of that policy and a lack of an alternative we need to work on," he said.

"People need to understand that a late departure is the most deadly. We have said, and it is evident, that fires can come without warning and very rapidly, and that you may not receive a warning and you may not have a fire truck at your front gate."

Anger and frustration also began to boil as residents demanded to return to their homes.

Authorities said they had little choice but to continue to refuse them entry because of the danger of fires, falling trees and powerlines.

But it only served to fuel the ire of restless residents desperate to get back up the mountain to see if their homes - or anything else salvageable - had survived the fires.
Fifty bodies may never be identified in Victoria fires
Article from: AAP

February 10, 2009

MORE than 50 unknown bodies lay in Melbourne's morgue and amid the ruins of bushfires, and many may never be identified.

Authorities fear many bodies would have been burnt beyond recognition in the Victoria fires and others will never be retrieved from the ashes spread over 360,000 hectares of devastation across the state.

Premier John Brumby revealed tonight's confirmed toll of 181 deaths would rise to over 200 as the carnage mounts and the anger begins to boil.

"There's still a large number of people - in excess of 50 who are unconfirmed and essentially these are people who the coroner believes are already deceased, but are not yet identified,'' Mr Brumby said.

Victorian Institute of Forensic Medicine director Professor Stephen Cordner said identification would be in some cases, impossible to achieve.

As the grisly task of finding and identifying bodies will continue for weeks, survivors, particularly from the Kinglake regions, are venting their anger at authorities.

Some say there was insufficient warning of the firestorm, while others are angry they are not being allowed access to their own properties on the scorched central highlands.

And distressed survivors in Gippsland have called for life terms for arsonists after police revealed they were closing in on a firebug suspected of starting the Churchill fire which has killed 21 people.
Quoting surfmom:
WOW - Pottery - that is a lot of rain -- more to come......must have mold growing on the walls.....you could send some of that over here...EmmyRose & I are parched, freezed-dried, and tinder for fire.....Texas & Florida need rain--- the cattlemen & farmers are under great stress.

Been waving my rainstick and dancing......haven't made a connection to the person in charge of rain just yet.
We had a little rain early in the morning yesterday, hoping for more late tonight, hopefully with out damage. Lawns and brush look like Oklahoma not our lovely green year round Houston area. Prayers and healing thoughts to our fellows Down Under.

Healesville spared from horror fires in Victoria
Article from: AAP

February 10, 2009

TODAY was a day of relief for Healesville residents and firefighters defending the town, when good luck and weather kept raging bushfires away.

It had been expected the small town only 60km east of Melbourne's CBD, in the heart of the wine-making Yarra Valley region, would come under direct attack from the Victoria fires and it was placed on an urgent threat level with residents warned to watch out for ember attacks.

Simple good luck and cool, strong winds blew bushfires away from the town, Country Fire Authority officer Nic Rodway, who is helping run operations in Healesville, said.

"The wind was erratic, it's the only way to describe it, calm one second, blowy the next, it was coming from all different directions,'' he said.

"Today is about assessing the last four days and establishing control lines.

"We are expecting the weather to turn hot again by Saturday and Sunday so we want to try and get as much in place now.''

Fires in the area have burnt to within 40km of Melbourne's CBD near Yarra Glen.

CFA volunteers were kept busy around Healesville saving homes and valuable properties belonging to private school Wesley College.

One Healesville crew was fighting the fire when it became too big forcing other trucks and a water bombing helicopter to help.

"It's dangerous and nasty in the way that all these houses around here are now empty so there's nobody here to look after them, so our main job is to protect property and ourselves of course,'' strike team leader Geoff Stewart said
Send support messages to crews battling Victoria bushfiresLink
Drought, strong winds and heat combined to produce Victoria fires
Article from: Herald Sun

Alice Coster

February 11, 2009

CONDITIONS for a perfect firestorm led to Australia's greatest natural disaster at the weekend.

Drought, hurricane-force wind and record temperatures after a record heatwave combined to create Victoria's deadly Black Saturday bushfires.

The University of Melbourne's senior lecturer in fire ecology and management, Kevin Tolhurst, said conditions on Black Saturday were some of the worst the world had seen for a potential outbreak.

He said the fires were so hot the energy they released could have supplied Victoria with electricity for at least two years.

Up to 80,000 kilowatts per metre of heat was expelled as the fires raged on Saturday.

Dr Tolhurst said this equalled about 500 atomic bombs landing on Hiroshima.

"Eyewitness accounts said they didn't see evidence of fire and then all of a sudden they felt the area around them was exploding," Dr Tolhurst said.

The unprecedented bushfires were so savage because of the previous week's heatwave. He said this sapped up the vegetation's moisture, making the land tinder dry.

"What was quite unusual and unique about it was the fires took so readily and developed so quickly. The conditions were so dry the fuel ignited," Dr Tolhurst said.

Department of Sustainability and Environment fire behaviour specialist Peter Billing said spot fires, travelling up to 15km from the fire front, rapidly accelerated the blaze.

"Spotting defeats the control of the fire,' Mr Billing said.

The front then fragmented, creating fingers and tongues of fire rapidly spreading up spurs and gullies.

"Bits and pieces of a very ugly fire will go all over the place," he said. "The original fire, the parent fire, can fragment so it is not a clean edge and you cannot determine exactly where it is."

He said prevailing wind, with gusts reaching hurricane force levels up to 120km/h, initially drove the fire.

"But once it is established it becomes a monster of its own physics," he said.

CSIRO senior fire researcher Andrew Sullivan said Victoria was ideally placed for bad fires because of its climate, vegetation, topography and the phenomenon of hot and dry wind from the continent's centre.

"The conditions on Saturday were typical of bad fire days like Black Friday in 1939 and Ash Wednesday in 1983," Mr Sullivan said.

"Victoria is the perfect spot to have really bad fires."


P.S If anyone here would like to add me to there Facebook. Scott Davis. Network: Australia. I wear glasses.
Cheers
Victoria bushfire supported offered by US President Barack Obama

US President Barack Obama has phoned Kevin Rudd to offer his condolences over the bushfires and offer US help in fighting the blazes.

"The president offered his prayers to the people of Australia and his condolences to the victims," White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said.

"The president asked if the US could provide assistance to the government and people of Australia to assist with the fire."

The call came as a contingent of senior US fire personnel prepared to fly to Australia to help battle the killer bushfires.

About 35 American firefighting operation chiefs, aviation managers, planning section chiefs and specialists in land rehabilitation are waiting for final orders to help bolster the effort to control the blazes.

"Australia and New Zealand have been wonderful neighbours and provided help in our time of need and we are happy to return that help," US National Interagency Fire Centre spokesman Don Smurthwaite told AAP.

Australia, New Zealand and US firefighting agencies have a close working relationship and have participated in exchange programs in recent years.

A team of 44 Australian and New Zealand fire personnel were stationed in northern California last August to help quell fires that ravaged the region.

In recent days Australian and US government officials held informal discussions about calling on American fire personnel.

A formal request for assistance is believed to be imminent.

It is expected once the formal request is issued it will take about 48 hours to have the US contingent on the ground in Australia.

The deployment will not include firefighters to be used on the fire fronts.

"The positions will be mostly leadership and supervisory in nature," Smurthwaite said.

"We won't be sending firefighters at this point."

Bushfires in Victoria have killed at least 173 people with authorities expecting the toll to rise further as remains are found in more than 700 burnt-out homes.

Australian government officials in the US also released a phone number for expatriates concerned about friends and family in the disaster area.

They can call the Red Cross hotline in Australia on 011 61 3 9328 3716.

Australia's worst bushfires are front page news in the US and have challenged Mr Obama's attempt to pass an $US827 billion ($A1.21 trillion) economic stimulus bill as the top story on TV news bulletins.

Two articles about the fires dominated the front page of the Los Angeles Times broadsheet newspaper, with one carrying the headline "Infernos are Australia's worst ever".

The tragedy has also sparked debate in the US about whether Australia's "stay and defend policy", which some US regions have contemplated introducing, should go ahead.

- AAP, AFP
ReliefWEB:

NATURAL DISASTER
Australia: Wild Fire - Feb 2009
Updates on Australia affected by the Australia: Wild Fire - Feb 2009 emergency. GLIDE No. WF-2009-000035-AUS

Latest Updates
Save to My ReliefWeb

10 Feb 2009

Australia: Coroner still to identify dozens killed in fires Link
Thanks for all the articles and information Aussie!
Especially #193...very interesting.
This will be very interesting to watch today.....

The Stock Market Blog is 3 doors down..on the Left
Quoting surfmom:
Cot -- you are here.... time to be OVER THE WEATHER!!! Put yourself in a ray of sun, close your eyes and think Florida....... it's waiting for me.............. just gotta graduate school and then....bum, bum, bum I'm going back and NO ORLANDO this time..... and I'm going in the winter so I can laugh at all my friends freezing their butts off back home.

PS. Spring is on her way.... she's whispering in my ear on this side of the ocean


Have to avoid New York on the way back too.
Quoting Patrap:
The Stock Market Blog is 3 doors down..on the Left


Ok gatekeeper.......LMAO
Australia’s stay and defend approach: up in smoke?


With 200 feared dead and entire towns declared arson crime scenes, Australians are trying to determine if anything could have been done to prevent the loss of so much life and land. The country’s policy of allowing rural residents to stay and defend their homes during wildfires is already under close scrutiny.

While some of the fires are contained, firefighters are still battling flames north of Melbourne. In addition to the grim death toll, about 5,000 people have been left homeless and roughly 1,351 square miles (roughly the area of Rhode Island) have burned since last week.

Many of those killed were attempting to protect their homes or were too late to leave and died while trying to outrun the fires in their vehicles, according to our recent story on the devastating fires. Experts told us they’re taking another look at the “stay and defend” approach, which became common practice throughout Australia after 1983, when 75 people were killed in the worst fires to date at the time.

“There is nothing to suggest at this stage that the stay and defend approach has failed,” Naomi Brown, chief executive officer for the Australasian Fire Authorities Council told the Monitor’s Lindsey Arkley in our recent story. “The fire conditions on Saturday were unprecedented in terms of their size, speed, and ferocity, but we need to conduct an analysis of whether people should be given different advice.”

Until the weekend’s fires, the stay and defend idea was “the most talked about strategy in the firefighting world,” according to the Los Angeles Times. Southern California wildland firefighting agencies were even in the process of adopting aspects of the approach. Land managers across the US West were also taking a shine to the idea, which includes heavy doses of prevention, education, and personal responsibility.

The appeal is obvious. People who live in forested areas don’t like being forced to evacuate their dream homes and taxpayers don’t like footing massive firefighting bills. During a fire in Montana’s Stillwater River Drainage in 2006, many homeowners snuck around evacuation lines to defend their homes. Some were successful – and probably saved homes that would have otherwise been lost, according to accounts in The Billings Gazette – even if they narrowly escaped with their lives. The owner a cabin eventually took refuge in the water, according to one story, “As he huddled in the stream behind boulders, a robin landed next to him and sat in the water up to its neck. He and the robin kept a low profile as the fire jumped the river, setting nearby trees ablaze.”

The idea goes deeper, though, than rugged western individualism. It’s more about personal responsibility: If a person chooses to live in remote, fire-prone areas (basically, the entire American and Canadian west), should he or she expect Smokey Bear and the cavalry to arrive the minute smoke appears on the horizon?

This is going to be an increasingly important question – and increasingly complicated, following the weekend’s devastation in Australia – according to an interview I conducted in 2007 with fire experts and an author of a research paper on the soaring costs and risks associated with wildfire in the American west.

Attracted by the clean air, open spaces, relatively low costs of living, and access to recreation, western states have experienced boundless growth in recent years. Many newcomers come for the scenery, buying homes smack dab in the forest, despite decades of data showing these areas to be prone to fire.

But with federal firefighting forces at the ready, these homeowners have little cause for concern, according to Ray Rasker, an economist and executive director of Headwaters Economics, of Bozeman, Mont. “Local counties can permit subdivisions without having to incur most of the costs of fighting fires,” Rasker said in an earlier interview. “The firefighting costs are paid by the national taxpayer. It amounts to a subsidy, basically.”

With global warming, the fires are only expected to worsen in coming years. Melting snowpack no longer keeps forests moist through dry summer months. Beetles that were once killed off by winter deep freezes are propagating and creating ever-growing swaths of dead, easily ignited trees. “We’re only starting to see the magnitude of the problem,” Rasker said.

According to a study by Rasker’s group, about 14 percent of private land surrounding national forests in the West has been developed and an estimated $1 billion is now being spent annually by federal land management agencies to protect homes in these areas. Expect both numbers to continue to rise, Rasker said.

“We’re asking firefighters to risk their lives to protect homes,” Rasker said. “If you build in harm’s way, you should at least be responsible for that.”

Which is exactly what Australia had been doing. The current stay and defend policy includes a heavy component of prevention and education – without this, the death toll might have been even higher, experts say.

There’s one idea, though, that no fire expert will reconsider: Nature always bats last.

Link
You chuckle a lot..LOL

Seems you been minding the gate pretty good for the last,eon.
Quoting Patrap:
You chuckle a lot..LOL

Seems you been minding the gate pretty good for the last,eon.


What is your problem Pat....what the hell have i done to you........WOW! Have great Day MAN!
The bushfires in Australia have destroyed everything in their path, destroying homes and cars.

VIDEO: BBC Link
Quoting TampaSpin:


What is your problem Pat....what the hell have i done to you........WOW! Have great Day MAN!

I'm outa here before this turns ugly... lol
Goodnight all
Get a Grip TS...it not an election year
Net closing on arsonists as 200 feared dead in Australian fires

Authorities claim to be close to finding those responsible for blazes as politicians call for them to face murder charges


Police said they were closing in on the arsonists believed to be responsible for Australia's worst bushfires, as an official said the number of people killed in the blazes had risen to more than 200.


Australian towns devastated in the fires were declared crime scenes as forensic investigators began combing the charred landscape for evidence of how the infernos started, and who may have ignited some of the 400 blazes.

The confirmed death toll stood at 181 but John Brumby, the premier of Victoria, the state devastated by the fires, said the coroner had identified another 50 bodies that had not been counted in the official death toll. Brumby told reporters that the toll would "exceed 200 deaths". The fires have also left 5,000 homeless and destroyed a 350,000 hectare area north of Melbourne in the past three days.

As firefighters continued to battle raging fires that threaten a further six towns north of Melbourne, the attorney general, Robert McClelland, told parliament that those responsible for lighting them could be charged with murder. Senior police confirmed they are preparing photofits of suspected firebugs.

"We'll soon be in a position to provide face images of people we believe responsible,"Detective Sergeant Brett Kahan told the Melbourne Age. Announcing a special taskforce to investigate the fires, the Victorian police commissioner, Christine Nixon, said she was "optimistic" that arrests would be made.

The prime minister, Kevin Rudd, echoed the anger of a nation yesterday, when he described such actions as "mass murder". Fighting back tears, he said: "This is of a level of horror that few of us anticipated."
more......



Quoting Patrap:
Get a Grip TS...it not an election year


What the heck....your the one that needs to get a handle. Insults really make you big Pat....keep up the great work you do..
Towering flames transformed entire towns into ashes in southeastern Australia and burned fleeing residents in their cars. Eddy Meyer reports.


Im out of here. Hope everyone can avoid Pat today! Have a Good day everyone!


Leaders scramble to help fire victims Link

The urgent threat message for residents of Glenhope, north-west of Melbourne, has been downgraded.
Intact homes bittersweet news for bushfire survivors

By Nic MacBean Link

For many of the victims of the Victorian bushfires, rebuilding is the furthest thing from their minds.

Indeed, Australians have been warned it could take a year for the fire recovery operation to finish.
Hard for someone living in New England to relate to "world's hottest temperature so far south", so I compared latitudes.

Hobart's latitude in the Southern Hemisphere corresponds roughly to the following cities in the Northern Hemisphere:

Newburyport NH
Buffalo NY
Lansing MI
Milwaukee WI
Yankton SD
Casper WY
Pocatello ID
Port Orford OR
Sapporo JP
Vladivostok RU
Bishkek KG
Assisi IT
Pamplona SP

I'm guessing that an extended period of temps between 105F and 110F near the end of June in these cities would be much bigger news.

I'd guess that three consecutive days at the end of June with highs around 110F in the following cities (roughly corresponding to Melbourne's latitude) would also be "news", though maybe not quite as dramatic:

Fredericksburg VA
Lexington KY
Wichita KS
Berkeley CA

However, 107F at three o'clock in the morning at the end of June in the following cities might generate a headline:

Fayetteville NC
Little Rock AR
Santa Barbara CA
Kyoto JP

Battle To Beat Aussie 'Firebugs'

Australia's arsonists are known by the innocent nickname of "firebugs" - but with nearly 200 people dead the country is now forced to tackle this perennial plague.


Branded by emotional Prime Minister Kevin Rudd as committing "mass murder", the arsonists sometimes turn out to be volunteer firefighters who are on-call to tackle blazes in the bush.

With whole towns razed in this latest and most deadly of outbreaks a special taskforce of at least 100 police officers has been formed to investigate and track down the arsonists believed responsible for starting some of the blazes in Victoria.

One volunteer firefighter was refused bail on February 6 by a magistrate after being charged with lighting five fires near Melbourne between last October and January 15.

Another volunteer was nabbed in neighbouring New South Wales after suspicious police attached an electronic tracker to his car last year.

The tracking device allegedly linked the firefighter's car to the location of more than a dozen fires.

Forensic psychiatrist Dr Jonathan Phillips told Australia's 60 Minutes current affairs TV programme about what drives people - usually men - to commit arson.

"An arsonist is a person who's a misfit, who doesn't fit comfortably in family or community, who has very few friends, who's totally preoccupied with self.

"We don't know all that much about what goes on in the arsonist's mind for that reason - they don't talk," Dr Phillips said.

A royal commission investigating the disaster has been announced and the country's authorities are now considering setting up a national register of arsonists as a way of combating this home-grown terror.

But forensic psychiatrist Dr Phillips also voiced concerns that the firebugs can ever be stamped out completely.

"The problem of the arsonist is the underlying personality. It is that need for power, for success, for the thrill of the chase, really," he said.

"And that's embedded deeply in the personality of the arsonist. And there's not much known to me to suggest that that can be changed."

Link
Awww, crap! I'm still using the old calendar. You know, the Julian one.

So, please make all that "end of June" stuff END OF JULY, eh?

Well, the latitude comparisons are moderately interesting anyway, right?

(slinks away in shame)
Im sorry if you were offended TampaSpin,I was only yanking yer chain,..

You do a fine job....always.


Though all of these signatures will become evident immediatley prior to eruption of Redoubt. The harmonic tremor is the signature of rising magma. Redoubt for sure is buzzing.
Have not been able to find new SO2 gas data.
Sulfer Dioxide,unlike the water vapor(steam seen exhausting in webcam) is the tell tale sign of the presence of magma.


QUICK OUTLOOK POSTED:
South Florida StormWatch
I think I picked the perfect week to take vacation. Weather couldn't be better here in SWFL. Now as soon as Air Force One leaves town I can head to Tampa.
The first Tornado Watch of the day has been issued:



Photobucket


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 8
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1250 PM UNTIL
800 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHWEST OF CHANDLER
OKLAHOMA TO 35 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ABILENE TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...CU FIELD CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER NORTHWEST TX AND
SOUTHWEST OK...IN REGION OF RELATIVELY STRONG HEATING AND INCREASING
MOISTURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS REGION IS NEAR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SUPERCELLULAR WITH VERY
LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. THREAT FOR STRONG
TORNADOES WILL INCREASE BY EARLY EVENING AS LOW LEVEL VERTICAL WIND
PROFILES STRENGTHEN.
Quoting charlottefl:
I think I picked the perfect week to take vacation. Weather couldn't be better here in SWFL. Now as soon as Air Force One leaves town I can head to Tampa.
It is nice this week, much easier to take than the cold.
Fire Weather Warning
for the Northern Country, Wimmera, Mallee and North Central forecast districts.
Issued at 04:50 am EDT on Wednesday 11 February 2009.



A fire weather warning for Wednesday is current in the Northern Country and Mallee forecast districts and parts of the Wimmera and North Central forecast districts. Temperatures up to 25 degrees, relative humidity down to 15% and winds to 50 km/h will cause extreme fire danger.

CFA advises people living in areas at risk of fire to activate their bush fire plan.

The next warning will be issued by 11:00 am EDT Wednesday
so the arsonist in australia are desperate firefighter looking for work oh i love this recession it not your normal recession for sure. look out florida unless we get the may rains. i have built a garden in case it gets alot worse happy weather
111 Days till Hurricane Season 09.
At T-100 days we will be go for pre-season predictions.
At T-31 days we are go for blob watching.
At T-31 days also patrap is go to post the season preparation lists.
But spring tornado season begins today..

3 nasty cells with vorticys tracking along the north & west side of Oklahoma City.
Leftovers~ You remember the elderly woman that they caught wandering in a daze holding a lighter to green tree limbs trying to get something started behind her apartment complex? I think it was last fire season. Maybe too much cnn in her case.. Wish they'd get that firebug down in Palm Bay.
Quoting Patrap:
Get a Grip TS...it not an election year


You two really have to find daytime employment.. or get out of the house more.
Two words.
Love ya.
Mirror that..

LOL
Aussies donate $30m to bushfire victims
11/02/2009 6:24:00 AM. | Olivia Suzanski & AAP Link


Australians have now donated almost $30 million to the Red Cross Victorian Bushfire Appeal.



Donate to the Australian Red Cross Victorian Bushfire Appeal Link


Victorian Bushfire Appeal 2009 donate now

The 2009 Victorian Bushfire Fund to assist individuals and communities affected by devastating bushfires in Victoria has been launched by the Premier John Brumby in partnership with Red Cross and the Federal Government.

An independent panel made up of community leaders will oversee the appeal Fund's operation.

Donations are continuing to flow in via the website and phone, and there has also been an overwhelmingly generous response from corporate Australia.

Donations can be made using our secure online donations form or by phoning 1800 811 700.
They have the PSR for Tropical Storm Fay (finishing the Atlantic) and Tropical Storm Julio now. What do you guys think are the chances of them including that possible subtropical storm?
230. Patrap Australian Red Cross
For those outside of Australia, in order to donate on-line, you need to go to the international Red Cross site. I sent an email to American Red Cross and received the following reply:
Thank you for contacting the American Red Cross. The American Red Cross is not able to accept donations designated specifically for disaster relief in Australia.

Thank you for your kindness.

Sincerely,

American Red Cross Public Inquiry
I was surprised they did not mention the International Red Cross Website.

Post#139 :
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Australian Bushfire Donations

Ok, here is what I could find out.

Australian Red Cross and/or Australian Salvation Army
No luck using the on-line payment form - only works from inside Australia. However you can send a money order (Just check their websites for address)

International Red Cross and/or International Salvation Army
This seems the best way to go. Easy to use on-line payment system (No Paypal, darn it). Once you indicate the country where you live, it automatically uses that country's currency. USA uses US Dollars

I particularly liked the Salvation Army. They had a web page specifically for the bushfires and were pretty specific as to what they were doing.

One more thing. Just a point of interest. The currency exchange rate is 1USD=1.48AUD


EDITED : Added links


The 107 degree overnight temperature was in South Australia and I can tell you it was unpleasant!We are used to hot dry summers but that was too much. They have down graded the temperatures for this weekend a little so that may help the Victorian firefighters. The stories keep coming from the fire zones, sometimes now there are some good ones. A husband and wife who had become separated as they fled the fires where both admitted to the same hospital, he heard her voice in one of the cubicles and they were re united.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
111 Days till Hurricane Season 09.
At T-100 days we will be go for pre-season predictions.
At T-31 days we are go for blob watching.
At T-31 days also patrap is go to post the season preparation lists.


You forgot the 'First Wave' off Africa watch... which usually starts around the first week of April.
Quoting Cotillion:


You forgot the 'First Wave' off Africa watch... which usually starts around the first week of April.


what do you think the chance of them including that storm is?
Quoting hurristat:


what do you think the chance of them including that storm is?


The first wave including Ana?

Very minimal. Obviously, 'never' and 'absolutely' are not in the meteorological lexicon.

With two Mays seeing action back to back, it wouldn't surprise me to see a later start this year. Maybe mid to late June.

Or when the first wave is?

Dunno. Hard to say, though probably later than last year. Last year started very early for the waves.
Project Hope Horse Welfare Victoria is coordinating offers of support for bushfire victims and their horses -- http://www.phhwv.org.au/ Link

Complete Blog Refresh
Mirror Site
New Section includes Mt Redoubt
I am now using Google Earth Version 5 (Thank you SF)
Patrap, although the idea is to be ready by June 1st (and those in the Caribbean and perhaps the Floridian peninsula given the penchant for May storms in the last few years, perhaps a little earlier), when's actually the best time to begin preparations?

Although I'd figure not for a long while yet, I'm curious.
Anyone using a wireless weather cam? I would like to find one that will work with my weather station.. I will aim it at the pond, where the weather station is located.

Suggestions WU mailed will be appreciated.
Quoting Cotillion:
Patrap, although the idea is to be ready by June 1st (and those in the Caribbean and perhaps the Floridian peninsula given the penchant for May storms in the last few years, perhaps a little earlier), when's actually the best time to begin preparations?

Although I'd figure not for a long while yet, I'm curious.


Preparing for June First is easy and one can involve the entire family too. Link

Create a Family Hurricane Plan with OneStorm Link

Quoting Cotillion:
Patrap, although the idea is to be ready by June 1st (and those in the Caribbean and perhaps the Floridian peninsula given the penchant for May storms in the last few years, perhaps a little earlier), when's actually the best time to begin preparations?

Although I'd figure not for a long while yet, I'm curious.


Patrap has excellent resources for what we should do

As to individuals and what they actually do, naturally it varies a bit.

I am curious as to what others have done so far.
Here is what I have done.
1)...Started collecting my water bottles. I freeze as much of my potable water as possible. (Some people like large containers, because large blocks of ice melt slower, and keep things cooler longer. Some people like the smaller single drink bottles, because you can fit them into small spaces. I use a combination of both).
2)...I have started buying canned goods etc. for the hurricane shelf. I usually do this in the spring (catching items on sale). Then after hurricane season, I eat the food from the hurricane shelf over the winter months. Do not have to worry about expired dates that way.

I have a battery-powered TV that I use during weather emergencies, however it is analog. Does anyone know if they will broadcast analog during an emergency, or do I need to buy a new battery operated TV.

EDITED for clarity
Quoting KEHCharleston:


Patrap has excellent resources for what we should do

As to individuals and what they actually do, naturally it varies a bit.

I am curious as to what others have done so far.
Here is what I have done.
1)...Started collecting my water bottles. I freeze as much of my potable water as possible. (Some people like large containers, because large blocks of ice melt slower, and keep things cooler longer. Some people like the smaller single drink bottles, because you can fit them into small spaces. I use a combination of both).
2)...I have started buying canned goods etc. for the hurricane shelf. I usually do this in the spring (catching items on sale). Then after hurricane season, I eat the food from the hurricane shelf over the winter months. Do not have to worry about expired dates that way.

I have a battery-powered TV that I use during weather emergencies, however it is analog. Does anyone know if they will broadcast analog during an emergency, or do I need to buy a new battery operated TV.

EDITED for clarity


Save your money and don't sacrfice quality KEH...
Go to Radio Shack and get an AC converter for your regular TV and computer. I use the one for my truck and have a cigarette lighter style female conector with clamps on the other end for the battery. With 4 boat batteries plus vehicle I'm good for days. I have a 5 amp solar recharger that keeps them up.
Bring your car battery inside and clamp on or buy a 12v car battery especially for the purpose. Good to go.

Bushfires toll at 181. Marysville toll may be one in five
Article from: Herald Sun

Staff writers

February 11, 2009

UPDATE 10:16am PREMIER John Brumby was today unable to deny reports that up to one in five Marysville residents perished in the bushfires.

Fire authorities fear that up to 100 of its 519 residents may have perished in the blaze that left only a dozen homes standing in the town, northeast of Melbourne.

Mr Brumby, speaking on ABC Radio National's Breakfast program, said that he had visited Marysville since the fires and saw first hand that "there is nothing left".

"I went there (to Marysville) as a kid, I can remember that, I think three million Australians have been to Marysville and done Stevenson's Falls, there's just nothing left of the town," he said.

“It's so eerie – there’s no sound, there’s nothing," he said.

"There’s no activity, there’s no people, there’s no buildings, there’s no birds, there’s no animals, everything’s just gone. So the fatality rate will be very high.”

Asked if he expected more bad news on the death toll from the fires, which stands at 181, Mr Brumby said: "The number will continue to increase.

"Yesterday we had two emergency meetings of cabinet...and were briefed on all of these issues by the relevant authorities, so the number tragically will continue to increase."

CFA firefighter John Munday, who was in one of the fire trucks that entered Marysville about 10 minutes before the firefront swept through the town just before 6pm on Saturday, described in horrific detail how little hope so many residents had of escaping, let alone surviving.

"The toll is going to be massive," Mr Munday said.

He described how he and his crew had to make the heartbreaking decision to save themselves knowing they were leaving people to die.

"We had people banging on the sides of our tanker begging us to go back to houses where they knew there were people trapped, but we couldn't because if we had, we'd all be dead too," Mr Munday told The Australian.

"There were children running down the streets with flames behind them. It was hell. I never want to go back to that place, never.

"As we drove down to the Gallipoli Park, where people were assembling, we knew there were people in homes that were on fire and they had no hope.

"The whole town died around us as we bunkered down on the outside of the oval ringed by funeral pyres while all around us we had the screaming noise of gas cylinders exploding in homes.

"The only way we could have saved them was to put ourselves on the altar and put a sword to our own hearts."

Fire continues to threaten communities in the state's northeast near Yea, with strong winds pushing the fire front further north.

Late last night an urgent threat was declared for townships surrounding the Alexandra base camp from which fire fighting efforts were being coordinated after a southerly change fanned the Murrindindi/Yea fire which covers more than 100,000 hectares.

Firefighters described by the Prime Minister as a legion of heroes are battling on as the death toll grew to 181 yesterday.

Up to 80 people were missing as fires loomed over towns in northeast Victoria.

Firefighters worked tirelessly yesterday to make the most of the cool weather before warmer weather returns at the weekend.

The forecast for Victoria's bushfire-ravaged countryside fortoday is fresh southerly winds and just a few drops of rain.

The Bureau of Meteorology says southerly winds of about 40 to 50 knots are expected but it will be a cool day.

The battle wore on as police started assembling a 100-strong team of detectives to hunt the arsonists as part of Taskforce Phoenix.

Fires to be investigated will include Churchill, Marysville, Wandong and Beechworth.
Tornado forms live on TV in Oklahoma:

Link
Can we fight nature's ferocity?
Article from: The Daily Telegraph

By Phil Koperberg

February 10, 2009

AS the nation mourns the loss of hundreds of lives, prays for the recovery of those injured and extends its sympathies to those who have suffered unspeakable loss, it would do well to reflect upon the stark reality of the nature of bushfires in one of the harshest climates on the planet.

The Victorian fires of the weekend have no precedent. The worst fears of firefighters and those living in bushfire-prone areas became a reality as the "perfect storm" unleashed its capricious fury in a brutal manner.

Firefighters risked all to minimise the loss of life and property but when fire travels at more than 85km/h, the wind carries burning embers at more than 100km/h and super heated air scorches all before it, the odds are insurmountable.

If anyone doubts the forces which perpetrate such devastation recall that in 1939 when fires were fought with gum branches, tin knapsacks and beaters, 71 people perished in Victoria.

Now 70 years later with the world's best technology, aircraft, highly trained firefighters, unparalleled communications and a high level of community awareness and preparedness the losses are much greater in a not dissimilar event.

Some will be tempted to engage in premature analysis and blame apportionment. Let's hope they don't succumb to that temptation as firefighters continue to battle the flames, survivors continue to mourn their loss of loved ones and communities that have lost all consider rebuilding their lives.

I have been asked by many whether warnings were adequate, were town planning provisions appropriate, was there enough hazard reduction done. The answer is - we don't know. There will be a lengthy forensic examination of all that occurred and the adequacy of mitigation strategies employed and those processes must be allowed to proceed with as little hyperbole as possible.

There was nothing normal about these events and as agencies and communities respond to the unprecedented we ought not be surprised, though horrified, when there is a tragic toll or loss.

Living in one of the most fire-prone regions in the world has taught us many lessons and each day we deal a little better in coping with the forces of natural disasters whether they be floods, storms, tsunamis or bushfires.

In the final analysis however, the ferocity of nature will overwhelm those engaged in loss minimisation, render impotent the technologies we employ under most circumstances and defy the most valiant efforts of firefighters and communities.

As the inevitable consequences of climate change prevail, we must prepare for similar or worse meteorological events whilst at the same time striving to avoid the disastrous consequences.

As Commissioner of the NSW Rural Fire Service for more than two decades, I join the nation in praising the efforts and courage in the face of adversity of our firefighters and other emergency service personnel. I extend my heartfelt sympathy to those who are suffering and those who have lost loved ones and priceless possessions.



* Phil Koperberg is the Member for Blue Mountains and former Commissioner of the NSW Rural Fire Service.
Quoting theshepherd:


Save your money and don't sacrfice quality KEH...
Go to Radio Shack and get an AC converter for your regular TV and computer. I use the one for my truck and have a cigarette lighter style female conector with clamps on the other end for the battery. With 4 boat batteries plus vehicle I'm good for days. I have a 5 amp solar recharger that keeps them up.
Bring your car battery inside and clamp on or buy a 12v car battery especially for the purpose. Good to go.

Excellent ideas.
My regular TV is also an old analog, that I pull out maybe twice a year. (Pulled it out for the inauguration for instance). So I am definitely looking at either a digital converter box or a new TV. I liked my little analog battery TV, and hate to see it's days of usefulness over, but alas, I suppose it has seen it's better days.
Quoting Seastep:
Tornado forms live on TV in Oklahoma:

Link
WOW .. Chilling
thank you all for thinking about us, what a devasating thing for victoria, the donations reached over 30 million oz dollars in one day, brilliant, the oz red cross site crashed within about 2 hrs of the firestorm, with people around the world donating, cheers *tears in my eyes*
Anyone see the aftermath tornado video from Edmond, OK? Just tragic. =(
can we fight nature's ferocity??? heck NO!


TORNADO WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 826 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

Severe Weather Warning Link
SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 829 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009
TORNADO WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 826 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009
SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 826 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009
TORNADO WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 819 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009
Quoting sxwarren:
Awww, crap! I'm still using the old calendar. You know, the Julian one.

So, please make all that "end of June" stuff END OF JULY, eh?

Well, the latitude comparisons are moderately interesting anyway, right?

(slinks away in shame)
Actually I thought u did a good job of "bringing things home" to those of us in the northern hemisphere. The Jun/Jul thing is just a little edit, not a major scandal. . .
TAMPA SPIN-Looks like we are going to get some rough weather up here in central TN.What do you think?
Quoting hydrus:
TAMPA SPIN-Looks like we are going to get some rough weather up here in central TN.What do you think?


Yes i would say so...its heading your way it appears...

7am tomorrow........

TAMPA SPIN-I made all preparations that I could.They say winds sustained at 40 with gusts over 60 before the squall line even gets here do to gradient wind.
With these dew points .......trouble is coming in the MidWest....Tennessee and Ohio Valleys tomorrow will be under the gun...

TORNADO WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 910 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009
TORNADO WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 917 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009
Look at the Vortex just SE if Fort Worth and SW of Dallas........WOW

Complete Blog Refresh
Mirror Site
New Section includes Mt Redoubt
I am now using Google Earth Version 5 (Thank you SF)
Victoria's bushfires still threatening towns in the northeast
Article from: Herald Sun

Aaron Langmaid

February 11, 2009

UPDATE 11.38am: AUTHORITIES fear two of the state's major fire fronts could join together to create one monster inferno.

More than 400,000 hectres have so far been razed in fires across the state, destroying more than 1033 properties and killing at least 181 people.

Just 18km of almost inaccessible forest now separates the Kinglake fire complex and the major fire front still burning out of control in Bunyip National Park.

Northerly gusts are all that is needed to create the scenario that fire officers in the area dread most.

It would put residents of small towns including Healesville, Warburton, Yarra Junction, Launching Place and Powelltown in jeopardy.

Lighting strikes have already started a number of spot blazes throughout the catchment area in between the two fire fronts.

CFA deputy chief fire officer Steve Warrington said there were genuine concerns that warmer weather conditions could bring the two blazes together.

"If the humidity drops with a dry wind it will create the conditions we are seriously concerned about,'' Mr Warrington said.

"The concern is quite obvious particularly when we go round to a northerly wind that the two fires could potentially join. I say potentially, we are doing a lot of work to ensure this does not occur.

"There are a number of towns in the middle of that. Collectively the emergency is working to ensure the keeping of lives.''

Mr Warrington said there were also long-term concerns for what a combined fire front could mean for Melbourne's water supplies. It would burn across Thompson Reserve, a major water catchment.

But he said for the time being calmer weather was helping strike teams on the ground.

"Cooler weather has been advantageous for crews on the fire line and it's allowed us to mop up around townships, houses and the like.

The weather prognosis for us is pretty good. Our concern though is as we move toward Wednesday next week the winds will start to move around to the north.

"There are some parts of the state where fires are burning that we haven't actually put a great deal of resources into simply because we saw greater priority in life.

He said the Churchill blaze was also burning close to the Longford Gas Plant but crews were confident they would keep it at bay.

A fourth fire burning in inaccessible forest in Dargo in Victoria's north was also burning unchecked, he said.

"This is still an emergency event,'' Mr Warrington said. "There are still fires burning that could cause us problems.’’

Urgent threat messages have been issued for a number of communities that have been warned they may be directly impacted by the Yea-Murrindindi fire.

Fire burning in the Blue Range on the northeast front is being pushed toward the communities of Acheron, Cathedral Lane, Rubicon, Thornton - Taggerty Rd and Bulls Lane.

Residents have been told to activate their fire plans and be alert for possible ember attack.

The Connellys Creek, Crystal Creek, Scrubby Creek and Native Dog Creek communities are also at risk from fire burning on the western and eastern sides of the Black Range. An urgent threat message advises residents to patrol their properties for flying embers.

Other communities in the Yea Murrindindi fire area remain on alert.

Residents in Yarck and Caveat have been warned to be aware of possible spot fires burning ahead of the main fire front, while communities in Alexandra, Thornton, Snobs Creek and Eildon are under no immediate threat but have been told to remain vigilant.

DSE spokesman Kevin Monk said the Yea-Murrindindi fire burnt throughout the night.

"The northern part of the fire on either side of the Maroondah Hwy in still quite active," he said.

"The east side still needs containment lines around the fire. We're talking about a big arc from Taggerty to the east of Marysville, so it's a lot of work."

He said 20 fires were still burning across the state with firefighters working hard to construct containment lines around the blazes.

Mr Monk said alert messages remain in place for the Toolangi, Healesville, Chum Creek, Badger Creek, Steels Creek, Dixons Creek and Yarra Glen communities.

"Fire is still burning northeast of Healesville and southeast of Toolangi and people in that area need to be aware," Mr Monk said.

He said the Bunyip fire was still causing concerns on the northwest front with Gembrook residents still on alert for fire activity in the area.

Mr Monk said milder conditions were allowing firefighters to build containment lines around some of the fires.

"The Beechworth fire is a positive. Conditions were quieter last night and firefighters have constructed a fire line around about 50 per cent of the fire," he said.

"Residents should be aware of an increased amount of smoke in the area from back burning.

"We're expecting they will get that fire rounded up in the next few days."

Firefighters are working on containment lines around the northern side of the Churchill fire, aided by milder conditions and minimal fire activity overnight.

"Things are looking better and while conditions remain mild they are allowing firefighters to put in a big effort on containment lines," Mr Monk said.
Reports coming out of Oaklahoma are saying 3 dead and more injured in tornados...Wow you could see them on radar very easily...
February 10, 2009 - Smoke Plume from Australian Fires

MODIS



SPC storm reports for the day. 3 deaths not mentioned...
For those of you in Florida, what's the word on citrus crop damage after the cold weather of the past month?
Fifteen killed in Oklahoma tornado

From correspondents in Washington

February 11, 2009

AT least 15 people have been killed by a tornado that ripped across Oklahoma in the United States.

The Oklahoman newspaper reported that the twister tore a 1km swath through the town of Lone Grove early this morning , citing state officials.

Emergency Management officials have not confirmed the report.
110 Days till Hurricane season.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
110 Days till Hurricane season.


STOP THAT! - LOL
This is a Good Morning 59 degrees.... goes great w/my coffee
Wow Rob -- usually you're the nightbird, Spring Fever got you awake early???
Quoting RobDaHood:


STOP THAT! - LOL


I am just saying Lol.
272 CT
As eddye would say, "do you think the first one will hit SE Florida"?
North Queensland remains isolated by Flood

AT least 13 towns, hundreds of cattle stations and mines remain cut off from the rest of Australia as the worst floods on record continue in north Queensland.

Independent Member for Kennedy Bob Katter told Parliament up to 700 Karumba residents were stranded and forgotten in the worst floods since European settlement.
278 sky
thanx
Interesting articles in there.
Crocs washing downstream.
Red spider hatch...
Talked to a friend who was in OK City last night, but lives in ardmore, said the weather was really bad, hail, wind, etc. I don't think he realizes how close he was to those twisters..
Quoting natrwalkn:
For those of you in Florida, what's the word on citrus crop damage after the cold weather of the past month?


Not all that extensive,most tree's have little to no damage,google~Florida citrus report,and they have reports there....
Tomatoes took a bigger hit, and you can tell if you've been in the grocery store in the last couple of weeks.
Quoting charlottefl:
Talked to a friend who was in OK City last night, but lives in ardmore, said the weather was really bad, hail, wind, etc. I don't think he realizes how close he was to those twisters..


The worst part is most of the tornado's in OK were rain wrapped,making them very hard to see coming at you!!!!,8 confirmed dead in OK and officials fear more are dead,because people are still missing....
There are conflicting reports this morning regarding the death toll in the Oklahoma tornadoes last night.
There are either eight or fifteen deaths depending on which report you read.
Will be waiting for the official confirmation this morning after officials have the chance to finish inspecting the damaged areas.
All of the deaths occcurred in the Lone Grove tornado.


PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK

111 AM CST WED FEB 11 2009

...FEBRUARY TORNADOES...

TORNADOES STRUCK IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TUESDAY
EVENING AFFECTING THE CITIES OF OKLAHOMA CITY AND EDMOND IN CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA... AND LONE GROVE AND ARDMORE IN SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
STORM SURVEY TEAMS WILL VISIT THE AFFECTED AREAS ON WEDNESDAY TO
DETERMINE THE DETAILS OF THESE TORNADOES.

SOME INFORMATION ABOUT FEBRUARY TORNADOES IN OKLAHOMA...

THERE HAVE BEEN 44 DOCUMENTED FEBRUARY TORNADOES WITHIN THE STATE OF
OKLAHOMA BETWEEN 1950 AND 2008.

THERE HAVE BEEN TWO PREVIOUS KILLER TORNADOES IN FEBRUARY IN
OKLAHOMA SINCE 1950... BOTH OCCURRING ON FEBRUARY 22 1975 IN
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA. ON THAT DAY... ONE TORNADO STRUCK ALTUS
KILLING TWO PEOPLE... AND ANOTHER TORNADO KILLED ONE PERSON NEAR
MOUNTAIN PARK. THESE WERE TWO OF SIX TORNADOES THAT STRUCK BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM IN OKLAHOMA.

THE STRONGEST TORNADOES SINCE 1950 TO HAVE OCCURRED WITHIN OKLAHOMA
IN FEBRUARY ARE TWO F3 TORNADOES BOTH THAT STRUCK ON FEBRUARY 17
1961. ONE F3 OCCURRED IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA COUNTY FROM NEAR SPENCER
TO NORTHEAST OF LUTHER... AND THE OTHER F3 WAS PART OF A TORNADIC
STORM THAT MOVED FROM NEAR STRATFORD TO KONAWA... WEWOKA AND TO
SOUTH OF SHULTER.

BEFORE TUESDAY... THE LAST FEBRUARY TORNADO IN OKLAHOMA OCCURRED ON
FEBRUARY 25 2000 IN TULSA.


Photobucket

Photobucket

Quoting charlottefl:
Tomatoes took a bigger hit, and you can tell if you've been in the grocery store in the last couple of weeks.


I have a container garden on my patio,up here in SRQ,I took everything in,but my strawberry plants and I'm glad I did!!!,I talked to my friend who also has a garden,but his is not a container garden,so he could not bring things inside like I did,after the cold snap,I put them back out and everything is doing super!!!,however my friend who didn't even cover he's plants,has lost some of his smaller seedlings and all of his others have been stunted due to the cold weather!!!!!
Got the rest of the world weather news updated on my blog. I do want to drop one more here. It's not a news outlet but the disturbing part is this isn't all over the media. I've been catching bits & pieces of it here & there.. China's drought the other day had 4.4 mill with no drinking water & huge crop losses~ more than 50%..no word there today.. Calif didn't plant 60% of their crops. I've seen one disturbing article out of TX.. Argentina, Chile, Brazil, Africa, middle east, Asia~ all devistating drought. At least a 20-40% drop in global food this year. Anyway great year for a garden. I'll be getting into my planting plans in there as well.

Catastrophic drop expected in 2009 global food production
Countries that make up two thirds of the world's agricultural output are experiencing drought conditions.


Is there actually a tornado "season" in GA? I know we get a few from time to time, just can't remember when that is...only during tstorms? Any particular time of year? summer?
I had a bumper crop of tangerines that got left on the tree (Melbourne, FL)~ lost about 60% of that to the freeze. The main crop was most plentiful & harvested before the 1st freeze. I didn't cover my winter crops & they were fine. The 1st freeze killed off the last of my fall crops. They were pretty much done anyway.
While every month usually has some tornado activity, May is the peak month for tornadoes in the United States, averaging 285 over the past 10 years. April through July forms the heart of "tornado season." After that the number of tornadoes begins to drop off. But there is a secondary peak in September (10-year average of 93) -- largely driven by tornadoes spawned from landfalling hurricanes and tropical storms. And there is a tertiary peak in November (10-year average of 71).

While "Dixie Alley" along the Gulf Coast from Texas to Georgia and South Carolina is most at risk during second season, conditions favorable for tornadoes sometimes spread all the way north to the Ohio Valley.
Wish I could have brought my mango tree's inside....although like me, they are feeling MUCGH beter w/these warming temps.

Stillwaiting you been fishing????? My body down in Venice says he's had a terrific season thus far. Says the sea trout have made a huge comeback, especially since they planted all those sea grass beds which are now very establish.
United States sending 60 experts to help in Victoria
Article from: AAP

February 11, 2009

THE United States will send 60 experts to help in recovery efforts after the worst bushfires in Victorian history.

The support team was requested by Emergency Management Australia (EMA) in response to the ongoing Victoria fires, and should arrive on Sunday.

The team will include experts on burned area rehabilitation, incident management, aviation support and mid-and senior-level management.

A major part of the support will be two 13-member Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) teams who will assist in assessing burned areas and damage to water catchments.

The BAER teams include an environmental specialist, botanist, forester, soil scientist, hydrologist, geologist, and documentation and cultural resources specialists.

The support is part of the international fire exchange agreement that the US and Australia entered into in 2000.
THANK YOU SKYE!!!! your post 286 -- is the REAL news.... and I am very perplexed as to why that is not a headliner on many of our national newspapers........ (hummmm) I suppose they want to keep the sheeple ignorant and complacent for as long as possible.........the economic news is dismal enough... not enough food and they will awake......people get very pro-active when they are faced w/the hungry belly syndrome...... The corporations (who are truly running the show and the newspapers)are stalling off the Perfect Storm.......Funny thing is you can, play with the books, lie steal and be corrupt ie. Wall Street --but you can not fool, control or hide from Mother Nature -- unlike the banksters, and the privileged elite.....She holds us all accountable -- Equally
Fire threating water, gas supplies in Victoria
Article from: AAP

February 11, 2009

MELBOURNE'S largest water catchment, the Thomson Reservoir, and the Longford gas plant are both threatened by major bushfires burning out of control today.

And a water expert says a fire that kills just half the trees in the Thomson catchment could cut water yield in the already drought-ravaged dam by 20 per cent for the next half century.

The threat to water supplies was heightened by the prospect that the Bunyip and Kinglake Complex fires could merge, putting more communities at risk if predicted northerly winds return today.

Country Fire Authority (CFA) Deputy Chief Fire Officer Steve Warrington said emergency workers were closely watching the weather.

He said the Bunyip fire was active on its northern front in inaccessible terrain.

"Thomson Reservoir is a concern because of the long-term impacts for water catchment in Victoria,'' Mr Warrington told reporters.

"A fire in the catchment is something of significance in the immediate term and in the longer term if the water harvest is affected by the destruction of the catchment.

"There is a huge effort going on minimising the impact of that fire as we speak.

"And everything is being done to prevent the fire reaching the gas plant at Longford.''

Longford receives oil and natural gas from production platforms in Bass Strait.

In September 1998, an explosion at the plant killed two workers and severely depleted Victoria's energy supplies for two weeks.

Dr Paul Feikema, a research fellow with the University of Melbourne's Department of Forest and Ecosystems Science, is part of a team that has studied the possible effects of the Victoria fires.

He said a major bushfire would initially increase the amount of water flowing into the dam because of vegetation loss but would drastically cut flows as the forest regrew.

Models showed that with only 50 per cent of trees killed outright by a bushfire near the Thomson catchment, water yield would be cut by an average of 20 per cent for 50 years.
what about the 10yr old terrier champ maybe its not too late for us happy weather
Our tornado season is typically from April to September, though there are the odd tornado for the rest of the year as the winter storms come in.
Dr Paul Feikema, a research fellow with the University of Melbourne's Department of Forest and Ecosystems Science, is part of a team that has studied the possible effects of the Victoria fires.

293 Aussie
"He said a major bushfire would initially increase the amount of water flowing into the dam because of vegetation loss but would drastically cut flows as the forest regrew.

Models showed that with only 50 per cent of trees killed outright by a bushfire near the Thomson catchment, water yield would be cut by an average of 20 per cent for 50 years"
..............................................

That's interesting. Did he explain why?
Today's HPC Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion has a reference to a great historical storm that I found to be very interesting:

NEXT WEDNESDAY...THE ECMWF IS LIKELY TOO SLOW/PROBABLY TOO FAR SOUTH WITH ITS MARCH 1962 LOOK-ALIKE CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE EAST COAST PER TELECONNECTIONS...WHICH HAS BEEN ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE WIND GRIDS FOR LATE ON THE 18TH. THE 00Z MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW CLUSTERING AROUND THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION THAT FAR OUT IN TIME WITH A SMALLER CAMP MOVING THE MAIN CYCLONE INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN.

The 1962 Cyclone that is referenced is most commonly known as the Ash Wednesday storm, one of the most destructive nor'easters on record.

Some interesting links:
Ash Wednesday Storm of 1962 (Wikipedia)
Ash Wednesday Storm March 6th & 7th 1962
The storm of 1962
The Ash Wednesday Storm
Quoting theshepherd:
Dr Paul Feikema, a research fellow with the University of Melbourne's Department of Forest and Ecosystems Science, is part of a team that has studied the possible effects of the Victoria fires.

293 Aussie
"He said a major bushfire would initially increase the amount of water flowing into the dam because of vegetation loss but would drastically cut flows as the forest regrew.

Models showed that with only 50 per cent of trees killed outright by a bushfire near the Thomson catchment, water yield would be cut by an average of 20 per cent for 50 years"
..............................................

That's interesting. Did he explain why?


Read it again... he does explain why.....
He said a major bushfire would initially increase the amount of water flowing into the dam because of vegetation loss but would drastically cut flows as the forest regrew.
Arsonists start new bushfires in Australia

New fires blamed on arsonists hit Australia Wednesday as the toll from deadly blazes was likely to rise on the macabre discovery that charred remains initially identified as single bodies were in fact couples fused together by the heat.

The latest fires broke out Tuesday night, even as emergency workers were struggling with the aftermath of bushfires that have so far killed 181 people and burned huge tracts of the countryside in southeastern Australia.

John Brumby, the premier of the hard-hit state of Victoria, said many of 20 fires burning Wednesday were suspected to have been started by arsonists -- an act described earlier by Prime Minister Kevin Rudd as "mass murder."

"There seems little doubt these were deliberately lit -- a number of them last night," Brumby said on national television.

"I think words escape us all when it comes to describing deliberate arson."

Link




Australian arsonists likely to be young and male

The arsonist Australian police suspect lit one of the weekend's deadly wildfires is likely to be a young male who could be driven by the need for excitement, recognition or to be in control, analysts said Wednesday.

He may well be a loner and come from a poorer background, and is likely to have a record of violence. Crime statistics show he will also be hard to catch and convict.

"Lighting a fire fulfils some psychological need for them," said bushfire crime analyst Damon Muller, from the Australian Institute of Criminology.

The worst bushfire disaster in Australian history has killed at least 181 people in the southern Victoria state, destroying small towns and leaving 5,000 people homeless. Up to half of the bushfires in Australia each year are started deliberately, with a cost to the community of about A$1.6 billion ($1 billion) a year, research by Australia's Institute of Criminology has found.

Many firebugs come from the area where the fire is set, said University of South Australia psychologist Robert Heath, with some even joining efforts to douse the flames.

"Some suffer from a feeling of impotence and light fires to give themselves a sense of being in control," Heath said.

"Another group has a psychological attraction to fire and seeing things burn. The third group has a need to be seen as a hero and so tends to light fires to provide opportunities to show heroic traits."

There are also many women arsonists, who were an average 3 to 4 years older than the male arsonists, according to statistics of those caught and convicted of the crime.

Link
Quoting AussieStorm:


Read it again... he does explain why.....
He said a major bushfire would initially increase the amount of water flowing into the dam because of vegetation loss but would drastically cut flows as the forest regrew.

Thanks Aussie.
I understand about the unobstructed flows in present condition, but I'm curious how new growth can hold back more water than a mature forrest.
300

Hi Shep...my take on it is that the new growth USES the water before it runs off!
New Blog!
Quoting Skyepony:
Got the rest of the world weather news updated on my blog. I do want to drop one more here. It's not a news outlet but the disturbing part is this isn't all over the media. I've been catching bits & pieces of it here & there.. China's drought the other day had 4.4 mill with no drinking water & huge crop losses~ more than 50%..no word there today.. Calif didn't plant 60% of their crops. I've seen one disturbing article out of TX.. Argentina, Chile, Brazil, Africa, middle east, Asia~ all devistating drought. At least a 20-40% drop in global food this year. Anyway great year for a garden. I'll be getting into my planting plans in there as well.

Catastrophic drop expected in 2009 global food production
Countries that make up two thirds of the world's agricultural output are experiencing drought conditions.


Thanks for the heads up. This is the year to work for plentiful garden. I do not have a yard, but my sister has about 3/4 acre. Will call her about combing efforts to increase production.


DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0638 AM CST WED FEB 11 2009

VALID 111300Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT FOR
THE TN AND OH VALLEY REGION...

...MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY EWD TO THE APPALACHIANS TODAY...
A 100-120 KT MID LEVEL JET AND AN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
ACCELERATE ENEWD FROM NE TX THIS MORNING TO THE TN/OH VALLEYS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT.
THIS INTENSE MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SURFACE CYCLONE
THAT WILL CONSOLIDATE THIS MORNING OVER SE MO/SRN IL AND MOVE NEWD
TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
SWEEP EWD TO THE S OF THE LOW TRACK. THE WIDTH AND QUALITY OF THE
MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME AND NWD/EWD EXTENT FROM
THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WHILE THE STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL TRAVERSE THE TN/OH VALLEYS TODAY /N OF THE RICHER
MOISTURE/.

DESPITE THE LESS FAVORABLE WARM SECTOR MOISTURE AND ONLY MODEST
SURFACE HEATING EXPECTED TODAY...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WITH
A NARROW FORCED CONVECTIVE LINE ALONG THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS KY/TN AND EVENTUALLY INTO OH.
THE INCREASING WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL BE LINKED TO A PLUME OF
STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FEEDING THE CONVECTIVE LINE FROM
THE W/SW...AS A RESULT OF NEAR STEADY SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SHARP
COOLING AROUND 700 MB. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MORE FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR TRANSPORTING THE HIGH MOMENTUM /60-70 KT/
LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE GROUND WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE LINE. DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT GIVEN THE FORCED LINEAR
NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...THOUGH ISOLATED/EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS
COULD ALSO OCCUR GIVEN THE EXTREMELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND AT
LEAST WEAK LOW-LEVEL BUOYANCY. LATER TONIGHT...THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING GUSTS TO REACH THE
SURFACE E OF THE APPALACHIANS. A POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ON THE NOSE OF THE MID LEVEL JET.

FARTHER S TOWARD THE GULF COAST...FLOW FIELDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS/BOWS. HOWEVER...THIS AREA WILL BE S OF THE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT...WHERE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE POOR AND CAPE PROFILES WILL BE TALL/NARROW. ISOLATED
DAMAGING GUSTS AND PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED SUPERCELL WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SRN MS/AL AREA...BUT THE
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK.

..THOMPSON/GRAMS..
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Thanks for the heads up. This is the year to work for plentiful garden. I do not have a yard, but my sister has about 3/4 acre. Will call her about combing efforts to increase production.


Thats the only way.....Family owns 200 acre farm and we raise to eat everything...soy beans to feed the live stock.....sweet corn, and all the vegetables one can imagine....it is a total family effort and what we can't use ourselves we supply the neighbors......
301
Thanx Nad...I figured that was the logic.
Just can't fathom how a few young plants can hold more water than a mature tree with existing plants within it's drip line.
My father grew strawberries and raspberries in Indiana and made the best dam wine you would ever drink if you could remember......still got jugs of it in a celler up there.......LOL
New blog by the way!!
This is the current outlook for Tornados from the National Weather Service......give these guys props...they hit the rough weather yesterday.....nearly 2 days in advance....

Quoting theshepherd:

Thanks Aussie.
I understand about the unobstructed flows in present condition, but I'm curious how new growth can hold back more water than a mature forrest.

When the new growth begins and continues till the trees are back to being mature... it will use more water and wont let much through into the catchment. That's my take on it anyways.
TAMPA SPIN-I have got to tell you ,I would pay top dollar for that wine your talking about.Question,that tornado outlook you posted does not seem right,the squall line is in TN right now.