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Australia has its warmest summer on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:34 PM GMT on March 01, 2013

The historic summer of 2012 - 2013 is now in the books in Australia as the hottest summer on record, beating the previous mark set in 1997 - 1998 by more than 0.1°C. Australia also roasted through its hottest month on record this summer, with January 2013 topping out as Australia's warmest month since record keeping began in 1910. The oceans surrounding Australia were at their second warmest levels on record during January, contributing to the exceptional heat over the nation. The summer heat peaked during a remarkably long and widespread heatwave in late December and the first half of January, when fourteen of the 112 sites used by the Bureau of Meteorology for long-term monitoring had their hottest day on record. Sydney's 45.8°C (114.4°F) on January 18 and Hobart's 41.8°C (107.2°F) on January 4 were among the places which set new records. The highest temperature during the heatwave was 49.6°C (121.3°F) at Moomba in the far northeast of South Australia--Australia’s highest temperature since 1998. The extreme Australian heat helped push the average land temperature over the entire Southern Hemisphere to its warmest value on record during both December 2012 and January 2013. Many parts of southern Africa also had their warmest January on record.


Figure 1. Devastating wildfires swept through many areas of Australia during January 2013, the nation's hottest month on record. In this photo provided by the New South Wales Rural Fire Service, a wildfire near Deans Gap, Australia, crosses the Princes Highway Tuesday, Jan. 8, 2013. (AP Photo/NSW Rural Fire Service, James Morris)

Record heat without an El Niño: an unusual occurrence
What's notable about the new summer heat record is that is occurred during a “neutral” period in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (there was neither a La Niña nor El Niño event present.) El Niño conditions add an extra natural bump to temperatures over Australia, and it is difficult to set all-time heat records unless there's an El Niño present. Before 2013, the hottest three summers on record in Australia occurred during El Niño years. Breaking an all-time hottest month and hottest summer record during a non-El Niño year is the type of event that would be difficult to have in Australia without a warming climate.


Figure 2. The departure of temperature from average for Australia from 1910 - 2013 shows that summer temperatures have warmed by about 0.8°C (1.4°F.) Most of this warming has occurred since 1950. Image credit: Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

Global warming expected to make the summer of 2012 - 2013 seem cool by late this century
According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, "the most significant thing about all of these extremes is they fit with a well established trend in Australia--it’s getting hotter, and record heat is happening more often. Six of Australia’s ten hottest summers on record have come in the last eleven years, meaning that very hot summers have been occurring at about five times the rate you would expect without a warming trend. In the last decade, record high temperatures have outnumbered record low temperatures in Australia by a ratio of about three to one. About a third of the all-time record high temperatures at the Bureau’s long-term stations have occurred since 2000…Australia has warmed by nearly a degree Celsius since 1910. This is consistent with warming observed in the global atmosphere and oceans. And it’s going to keep getting hotter. Over the next century, the world will likely warm by a further 2 to 5 degrees, depending on the amount of greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere. Under mid-to-high emissions scenarios, summers like this one will likely become average in 40 years time. By the end of the 21st century, the record summer of 2013 will likely sit at the very cooler end of normal."

Jeff Masters

Fire About to go Out
Fire About to go Out
After Adelaides fourth hottest day on record reached a scorching 45c, 113F! We were treated to this fiery sunset, rather appropriate!

Heat Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

The models have lied multiple times this winter.Why do I feel as though this one will be a let down as well?.It has been one lie after the other.
Quoting wxchaser97:

I should've probably said something earlier, but I didn't understand why the mid 30s area extended all the way down to Miami when the NWS doesn't even have them getting down past the mid 40s. Of course, this graphic doesn't have that thus making me agree with it more.

Oh, and if anyone hasn't noticed my avatar yet it is a threat level for severe thunderstorms. It ranges from no risk of severe thunderstorms to high risk of severe thunderstorms, mostly whatever the SPC outlook is that day.


pretty original Isaac...
Quoting washingtonian115:
The models have lied multiple times this winter.Why do I feel as though this one will be a let down as well?.It has been one lie after the other.

All events that have failed in your area were forecast to be weak and bring slight accumulations anyways. This time looks different; you may actually get a significant system to end Winter.
Quoting washingtonian115:
The models have lied multiple times this winter.Why do I feel as though this one will be a let down as well?.It has been one lie after the other.


Cheer up Washingtonian, you could very possibly get your storm finally.
Quoting washingtonian115:
The models have lied multiple times this winter.Why do I feel as though this one will be a let down as well?.It has been one lie after the other.


Models will continue to flip flop... by Monday things will look clearer. Keep up hope!!!
Winter storm watches should be expanded into Ohio/Kentucky areas tomorrow
Tell the GFS, to go SOUTH. And tell it this is a direct order from a random civilian too.
Quoting washingtonian115:
The models have lied multiple times this winter.Why do I feel as though this one will be a let down as well?.It has been one lie after the other.

Actually this storm probably won't be a let down. This could definitely be winter going out with a big bang.

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


pretty original Isaac...

Not sure if sarcasm
or actually telling me it's original.
so, what exactly are the 00z gfs, and euro saying will happen in DC?
Quoting wxchaser97:

Not sure if sarcasm
or actually telling me it's original.


I'm serious... what would the profile image be when something like this is out??? For day 1
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


30 inches of snow...??!


Part of that would be rain.


Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The ECMWF and GFS continue to nail northern and central Virginia with nearly two feet of snow and gusty winds.



Note - Snow still falling by this point:



Here's the total snowfall. Crushes the Shenandoah Valley, including Charlottesville, Staunton, Harrisonburg with 2 feet of snow! Richmond gets 6-12" while places north between Richmond and DC get over a foot.

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I'm serious... what would the profile image be when something like this is out???

Depends on what the day 1 outlook would be, I only do the image based on the day 1 outlook is.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I'm serious... what would the profile image be when something like this is out???


That's because due to the upper level dynamics of this system, thundersnow is a possibility.

At least in VA
Quoting TheGreatHodag:
so, what exactly are the 00z gfs, and euro saying will happen in DC?


+1 .. With some visuals would b even better.. Ima noob to where u all get ur model runs.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Depends on what the day 1 outlook would be, I only do the image based on the day 1 outlook is.


pretend it is...

do you have one made up?
not really buying any of the models at this point..
Quoting tropicfreak:


That's because due to the upper level dynamics of this system, thundersnow is a possibility.


what?
The lies are very convincing but I mean look at the temperature forcast.Before the "big day" (it be called that for now) highs are near 50 and the actual "big day" highs are in the 40's.Two negative strikes going against something producing big snows here...
Quoting washingtonian115:
The lies are very convincing but I mean look at the temperature forcast.Before the "big day" (it be called that for now) highs are near 50 and the actual "big day" highs are in the 40's.Two negative strikes going against something producing big snows here...


they called for temperatures in the upper 30s when I was expected to be hit by Nemo..during the storm temperatures did not make it to 32F...


Depending where the storm sets, a lot of cold air could be drawn knocking down those temperatures and you could get snow.
I know this isn't about the upcoming winter storm, but it is still weather. Here is my forecast for Phoenix, Arizona tomorrow where the Subway Fresh fit 500 will take place tomorrow.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


they called for temperatures in the upper 30s when I was expected to be hit by Nemo..during the storm temperatures did not make it to 32F...


Depending where the storm sets, a lot of cold air could be drawn knocking down those temperatures and you could get snow.
The snow will have a hard time sticking as temps leading up to the "big day" won't be terribly cold.So the pavement won't allow anything to stick.It will have to come down fast and furious.
Quoting washingtonian115:
The snow will have a hard time sticking as temps leading up to the "big day" won't be terribly cold.So the pavement won't allow anything to stick.It will have to come down fast and furious.


well, that could be a problem..
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


what?


Edited.

Said "At least for central VA"
\
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


they called for temperatures in the upper 30s when I was expected to be hit by Nemo..during the storm temperatures did not make it to 32F...


Depending where the storm sets, a lot of cold air could be drawn knocking down those temperatures and you could get snow.

So how much snow/rain are 00z gfs, euro saying now?
Quoting TheGreatHodag:
\
So how much snow/rain are 00z gfs, euro saying now?



I see this.. still not sure
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:



I see this.. still not sure


oh boy, looks like a cluster(insert expletive of choice here). Thanks and goodnight.
Speaking of all this snow talk, I found this funny video of light snow being reported by my home during hurricane Jeanne and I'm assuming someone fell for the reporting station error.
If I remember correctly the station stopped reporting soon after as a result of the severe weather with the storm which often seems to happen during tropical cyclone events.
Typically they don't report light snow when its 75 with wind gusts 0f 60 mph and heavy rain during a malfunction though :)


Looks like a central V.A storm.Yaaaaawn.On to next winter then and through the dreadful spring/summer months.
wow...both for 120 hr from 0z GFS

EURO


GFS
Also, here's a great video to keep people aware of the upcoming hurricane season!


cool!!!... look at that "S" west of Australia



0Z GEFS mean 72-hr precip at hr. 108. I get over a foot of snow on this map!

00z CMC..still up watching SNL





>My reaction when

Quoting WxGeekVA:


>My reaction when




LOL that's my reaction when a tropical storm is moving into my area.
Quoting Jedkins01:



LOL that's my reaction when a tropical storm is moving into my area.

I haven't gotten more than 1.5" of snow in a single event since Jan 2011, so I'm overdue for a big storm.
Quoting WxGeekVA:

I haven't gotten more than 1.5" of snow in a single event since Jan 2011, so I'm overdue for a big storm.


Wow that is a big deal then! Too bad it isn't occurring on a weekday then you could get school off!

We had so much rain last weekend into Monday night that part of the FSU campus was closed due to flooding. The drainage here is actually really good but a local low lying region on campus got a little too watery after 10 to 12 inches of rain in 4 days. They have a great alert system here.

They notified me by phone immediately of the flood danger and sent a graphic highlighting the region on campus with a flood danger. They do the same for severe weather like tornadoes, they send you warnings and detailed info, great system. The campus police Department shows up almost immediately for an emergency as well.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Wow that is a big deal then! Too bad it isn't occurring on a weekday then you could get school off!

We had so much rain last weekend into Monday night that part of the FSU campus was closed due to flooding. The drainage here is actually really good but a local low lying region on campus got a little too watery after 10 to 12 inches of rain in 4 days. They have a great alert system here.

They notified me by phone immediately of the flood danger and sent a graphic highlighting the region on campus with a flood danger. They do the same for severe weather like tornadoes, they send you warnings and detailed info, great system. The campus police Department shows up almost immediately for an emergency as well.


It's for Wednesday, and I have a test I am not ready for Thursday, so I really hope this follows through. I'd be happy even with 6"!
Quoting WxGeekVA:

I haven't gotten more than 1.5" of snow in a single event since Jan 2011, so I'm overdue for a big storm.


The most I've seen lately was 1.8" and that was mid-January, the "thundersnowstorm" this year.

Euro and GFS coming into agreement, best runs yet, Canadians also looking MUCH better.

Quoting WxGeekVA:


>My reaction when



I'm on that 12" line just SW of Richmond... bring it!
Quoting WxGeekVA:


0Z GEFS mean 72-hr precip at hr. 108. I get over a foot of snow on this map!



Awesome. Models looking much better for Central VA
Good morning to all,evening Aussie. The dry weather Puerto Rico and adjacent islands have been going thru will end Monday as a front and trough move thru.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
409 AM AST SUN MAR 3 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL
TROF ACROSS ERN NOAM DEEPENS AND MOVES INTO THE ATLC OVR THE NEXT
48 HRS. A CDFNT WILL MOVE ACROSS PR TUE AND STALL INTO THE CARIB WED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IT APPEARS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING
RAPIDLY LATER TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW OVR THE CNTRL ATLC
CONTINUES TO YIELD TO DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS ERN NOAM.
FRONTAL BDRY ASSOCIATED TO THIS UPPER LEVEL TROF LOCATED TO THE
WEST OF BERMUDA SWD ACROSS ERN CUBA INTO THE WRN CARIB WILL BECOME
BETTER DEFINED NEXT 12-36 HRS AS UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MONA PASSAGE MON WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
FINALLY BREAK OUT ACROSS WRN PR MON AFTERNOON AFTER NEARLY THREE
WEEKS WITHOUT A DROP OF RAIN. MOISTURE DEEPENS MON NIGHT-TUE AS
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LIFTS/WEAKENS TO 600 MB. FRONT MOVES ACROSS
PR TUE AND INTO THE CARIB SEA WED THEN RETREATS NORTH OF THE AREA
WED NIGHT-THU AS A WARM FRONT. OVERALL...EXPECT UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS MOST OF THIS WEEK AS AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND IN THE PROXIMITY OF A FRONTAL BDRY.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK...MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED JET STREAK SHIFTING EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA
RESPECTIVELY WITH AN OVERALL DRYING TREND EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FLYING
AREA AND FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LLVL WIND WILL BE FROM THE SE AT 15
KT OR LESS TODAY...VEERING TO THE S TONIGHT AND MONDAY. AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD AND SHWR COVERAGE IS EXPECTED MON TO TUE AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NW.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL BE DIMINISHING TODAY THRU MON BUT INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TUE-WE IN MIXED NW TO N SWELLS AND WIND WAVES. CONDITIONS
THEN IMPROVE THU.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BREAKING DOWN RAPIDLY LATER TODAY...THIS WILL
CREATE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS BUT AT THE SAME TIME PROMOTE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. OVERALL...FIRE DANGER THREAT LOOKS
MARGINAL TODAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY MON AND TUE WITH
THICK CLOUDS...DEEP MOISTURE AND SOME SHOWERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 73 85 74 / 0 0 40 70
STT 81 76 84 75 / 10 0 0 50
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pjYUzpdKMZs
Good Morning Folks!..a cool 43 degree's here by me right now..well the Bolgs Coffee is perked for when you get here..enjoy..have a great day everyone!
Quoting washingtonian115:
The snow will have a hard time sticking as temps leading up to the "big day" won't be terribly cold.So the pavement won't allow anything to stick.It will have to come down fast and furious.


Well will be hoping for you. Last winter we had nothing at lower elevations all winter, aside from a November hailstorm that left 3 inches. Then last day of March BAM, about a foot. Al;ways a problem here being cold enough to stick too. But maybe will get one of them lucky hits to see you out of winter...I know hard to believe any forecast models though!
42 now and going down down down!! i'm going to be in the water at 8:30 FUN!!!!!!:)
Good morning everyone



28F in Mobile, Al....brrrr

HOPEFULLY THIS IS THE LAST SHOT OF WINTER.......
Tonight is the coldest then the warm up begins........
Temps Next Sunday................

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM FOR THE WATERS. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT FOR
THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT MONDAY FOR THE WATERS.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA FOR A
PERIOD BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR RAIN OR SNOW...GUSTY WINDS...AND COASTAL FLOODING.
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND LOCATION OF THE RAIN-
SNOW LINE REMAINS RATHER HIGH SO PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS FOR UPDATES.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
cool!!!... look at that "S" west of Australia



aww, looks like a giant seahorse LOL
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pjYUzpdKMZs


Very appropriate this am PBW..Lol
Good Morning All..
33 degrees and 8mph wind makes getting the paper from it's landing strip a brisk walking experience, although waaay too early, LOl..


Here comes the Sun.. :)

Earth Science Image of the day

Solar Corona of the November 2012 Eclipse Over Queensland, Australia - March 03, 2013



Photographer: Constantine Emmanouilidi
Summary Authors: Constantine Emmanouilidi; Miloslav Druckmuller

The image above shows the stunning corona of the total solar eclipse of November 13, 2012, as observed from Queensland, Australia. Totality lasted four minutes and two seconds at the point of greatest eclipse, just east of the Australian mainland. This was my sixth viewing of a total solar eclipse but only my second happening near the time of the solar maximum. The solar corona is millions of degrees hotter than the Sun's photosphere but can only be observed when the Moon passes exactly in front of the solar disk (during totality). I was astonished by the brightness of the corona and by its dynamic characteristics, such as the helices found just outside the chromosphere. Also, you can see a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) -- at 11 o'clock on a clock-face.

I had to relocate my initial observation spot due to persistent clouds to a location further inland where the weather was more cooperative. A nearly crystal clear sky the night before the eclipse provided a great opportunity to set up our equipment. I%u2019m already making preparations for the next total solar eclipse -- November 3, 2013, across central Africa.

Diagram showing Eclipse Path..From NASA..Click HERE for better Image



Baily Beads Photo..Click HERE for better Image..


Earth Image of the day

New ISS Eyes See Rio San Pablo - March 3, 2013



In January 2013, a new Earth-observing instrument was installed on the International Space Station (ISS). ISERV Pathfinder consists of a commercial camera, a telescope, and a pointing system, all positioned to look through the Earth-facing window of ISS’s Destiny module. ISERV Pathfinder is intended as an engineering exercise, with the long-term goal of developing a system for providing imagery to developing nations as they monitor natural disasters and environmental concerns.

The image above is the “first light” from the new ISERV camera system, taken at 1:44 p.m. local time on February 16, 2013. It shows the Rio San Pablo as it empties into the Golfo de Montijo in Veraguas, Panama. It is an ecological transition zone, changing from agriculture and pastures to mangrove forests, swamps, and estuary systems. The area has been designated a protected area by the National Environmental Authority (ANAM) of Panama and is listed as a “wetland of international importance” under the Ramsar Convention. (Note that the image is rotated so that north is to the upper right.)

“ISERV’s full potential is yet to be seen, but we hope it will really make a difference in people’s lives,” said principal investigator Burgess Howell of NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center. “For example, if an earthen dam gives way in Bhutan, we want to be able to show officials where the bridge is out or where a road is washed out or a power substation is inundated. This kind of information is critical to focus and speed rescue efforts.”

Click HERE for more..
WxGeekVa don't get to excited.Dont be too surprised if your hopes are let down.
Post 554 I'm still very skeptical of anything.
Astronomy Picture of the Day


Grand Canyon Star Trails - 2013 March 3




Explanation: One of the natural wonders of planet Earth, the Grand Canyon in the American southwest stretches across this early evening skyscape. The digitally stacked sequence reveals the canyon's layers of sedimentary rock in bright moonlight. Exposed sedimentary rock layers range in age from about 200 million to 2 billion years old, a window to history on a geological timescale. A recent study has found evidence that the canyon itself may have been carved by erosion as much as 70 million years ago. With the camera fixed to a tripod while Earth rotates, each star above carves a graceful arc through the night sky. The concentric arcs are centered on the north celestial pole, the extension of Earth's rotation axis into space, presently near the bright star Polaris.
Nice week ahead for West Palm Beach...Currently 50°...

ISS live feed..now manuvering SpaceX Dragon Module into bay area..



Following its capture by Expedition 34 crew members Kevin Ford and Tom Marshburn of NASA, the SpaceX Dragon spacecraft is being maneuvered by ground controllers at the end of the International Space Stations robotic arm for installation onto the Earth-facing port of the Harmony module. NASA TV coverage is under way, available at: (See Link Above)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Can I get a description of a day by day process somewhere?
Quoting SPLbeater:


Can I get a description of a day by day process somewhere?

Severe Weather Awareness Week

Be back later.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Severe Weather Awareness Week

Be back later.

It is also National Severe Storm Preparedness Week this week.
Not sure if anyone here has seen this, but the NAM is forecasting a very interesting event to occur about 2 days from now. Not exactly a storm, more like the opposite of a storm- a massive 1092mb high pressure system over Greenland!



That equates to about 32.25 ins. Hg! The 0z run two nights ago actually showed the high hitting 1100mb! The other models aren't nearly as high as the NAM though, The 6z GFS is closer to a still very impressive 1070mb. We'll see.
I'm hearing that there is reports of sleet/snow mixing in Tampa, Florida this morning..true?
just thought I would drop in and say hello. I have not been feeling well, I have just been lurking in the back ground. I wish everyone a good day and I'll catch ya's all soon when I am better.
Quoting ncstorm:
I'm hearing that there is reports of sleet/snow mixing in Tampa, Florida this morning..true?
I haven't seen any verification of that. Most lows in the Tampa area were in the 40s; just a few inland locations even dropped into the upper 30s, with no freezing temps recorded within about 100 miles of Tampa. That being said, this is from NWS Tampa's Twitter feed about an hour ago:

"Hearing of a few reports of snow in the area this morning. Also saw one "snow" video which appeared more likely to be light rain given the fall rates of the precipitation. Morning upper air observations in Tampa show the cloud temperature is -1 C (base) to -5 C (top), however these temps need to be closer to -10 C to get ice crystals in the cloud. Further south there is some indication of a deeper cloud layers with the top of the cloud reaching the required -10 C (evident on the Miami upper air observation). However, in these areas the above freezing layer is 4000-6000 ft deep making it extremely unlikely any snow would reach the ground. That said, we shall see if any more conclusive pics or video surface."
Quoting ncstorm:
I'm hearing that there is reports of sleet/snow mixing in Tampa, Florida this morning..true?


Denis Phillips (Tampa met) posted this on his Facebook page.

Hey everyone! Thanks for sharing in the fun overnight. So far, we've had reports of snow/rain mix in St. Pete, Flurries in Seminole and New Port Richey, a mix in Dunedin, rain/sleet mix in North Port and flurries in Inverness. Everything is posted on our page from last night and EARLY this morning. Just scroll down to see the posts (and fun) we had. I know there are a few who don't "get" what we were trying to do, and that's ok. With me, the excitement of the possibility of a few snowflakes in Florida in March is worth staying up all night and sharing our thoughts. We'll be in "serious" mode soon enough with hurricane season, why not have some fun with the "awesomeness" that is Mother Nature when she gives us the chance with the possibility of a few snowflakes. I, for one, hope I never lose that wonder. Have a great day everyone! Stay warm!
Quoting StAugustineFL:


Denis Phillips (Tampa met) posted this on his Facebook page.

Hey everyone! Thanks for sharing in the fun overnight. So far, we've had reports of snow/rain mix in St. Pete, Flurries in Seminole and New Port Richey, a mix in Dunedin, rain/sleet mix in North Port and flurries in Inverness. Everything is posted on our page from last night and EARLY this morning. Just scroll down to see the posts (and fun) we had. I know there are a few who don't "get" what we were trying to do, and that's ok. With me, the excitement of the possibility of a few snowflakes in Florida in March is worth staying up all night and sharing our thoughts. We'll be in "serious" mode soon enough with hurricane season, why not have some fun with the "awesomeness" that is Mother Nature when she gives us the chance with the possibility of a few snowflakes. I, for one, hope I never lose that wonder. Have a great day everyone! Stay warm!
I dunno. I read through a lot of the comments, and wasn't convinced. I mean, some were pretty fuzzy. As in: "I drove around all night looking for snow and saw none, but my best friend's cousin's ex-girlfriend's boss's third wife's fiance's mortgage broker got a call from a guy in New York who said he talked to his nephew in Tampa who was at a party last night in Brandom when this girl came in to say she thought she saw a few snowflakes earlier, and when she told her boyfriend--who used to live up north, so he knows what snow looks like--he agreed that it maybe could have been a flake, except it was still about 55 degrees outside, and anyway she couldn't take a picture of it because she was too busy keeping her car on the snow-covered road, and when she finally did stop to take one, all the snow had melted already so she can't provide any photographic evidence. But that's good enough for me!" ;-)

The one cellphone "snowfall" video I've seen showed what looked to be a very light drizzle backlit by a street light, so it's not much help. There are dozens of pictures of the 1977 Florida snowfall event; I would imagine, then, that in this day and age, where everyone has a cellphone and every cellphone is a high-def camera, surely someone has a conclusive picture/video. So until we see that, I'd say we have to assume it didn't happen...

But, as always, we'll see...
Quoting ncstorm:
I'm hearing that there is reports of sleet/snow mixing in Tampa, Florida this morning..true?

There was a video that was taken yesterday morning that I saw that claimed there was grapuel and snow in Tampa. The problem is that there can't be grapuel and snow when it is in the mid 50s outside. As for this morning, I haven't been looking around for that so I don't know.
Quoting Neapolitan:
I dunno. I read through a lot of the comments, and wasn't convinced. I mean, some were pretty fuzzy. As in: "I drove around all night looking for snow and saw none, but my best friend's cousin's ex-girlfriend's boss's third wife's fiance's mortgage broker got a call from a guy in New York who said he talked to his nephew in Tampa who was at a party last night in Brandom when this girl came in to say she thought she saw a few snowflakes earlier, and when she told her boyfriend--who used to live up north, so he knows what snow looks like--he agreed that it maybe could have been a flake, except it was still about 55 degrees outside, and anyway she couldn't take a picture of it because she was too busy keeping her car on the snow-covered road, and when she finally did stop to take one, all the snow had melted already so she can't provide any photographic evidence. But that's good enough for me!" ;-)

The one cellphone "snowfall" video I've seen showed what looked to be a very light drizzle backlit by a street light, so it's not much help. There are dozens of pictures of the 1977 Florida snowfall event; I would imagine, then, that in this day and age, where everyone has a cellphone and every cellphone is a high-def camera, surely someone has a conclusive picture/video. So until we see that, I'd say we have to assume it didn't happen...

But, as always, we'll see...


LOL..funny Nea!

Its very hard to take pictures of light snow with a smartphone..I tried and it didnt work for me..wouldnt show up..it has to be snowing very hard for snowflakes to show up..
Quoting LargoFl:
Tonight is the coldest then the warm up begins........


Relief starting Monday for you ...



Couple minimal days here then it tanks...

This morning is 58.0 here.....
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Not sure if anyone here has seen this, but the NAM is forecasting a very interesting event to occur about 2 days from now. Not exactly a storm, more like the opposite of a storm- a massive 1092mb high pressure system over Greenland!



That equates to about 32.25 ins. Hg! The 0z run two nights ago actually showed the high hitting 1100mb! The other models aren't nearly as high as the NAM though, The 6z GFS is closer to a still very impressive 1070mb. We'll see.


wow 1100 mb..!

I've been noticing that for the past days...look at this big 1066 mb there
Quoting AussieStorm:
just thought I would drop in and say hello. I have not been feeling well, I have just been lurking in the back ground. I wish everyone a good day and I'll catch ya's all soon when I am better.


Hi Ausie... I don't feel too well either. I can barely pronounce some words, my throat is killing me.
Walrus turns up in Scotland!

What appears to be a young male has been spotted on a beach in the Orkney Islands, just north of the Scottish mainland. That's 1,000 miles south of Greenland, the nearest place they can normally be found.

An odd vagrant turns up in Iceland every few years or so, but that's next door to Greenland. Scotland is WAY further south. It's being described a a 'once in a lifetime event'. Bit surreal, really. No info yet if the guy who found it is a carpenter. Now, that would be surreal.



Walrus found in Scotland
not a tornado fan...but I like to say something about them every once in a while

Quoting hurricane23:


Yep..Turned in app yesterday.


Hope you get the job!
Quoting hurricane23:


Yep..Turned in app yesterday.
Excellent...

Strong winds from the NW aided in producing this NW to SE oriented Lake Effect Snow band coming off lake Allatoona!!!!

I picked up a dusting with some fairly high snowfall rates. Although it was 29F the snow melted nearly as fast as it fell.
Fine powdery gravel sized snowflakes. Made a snowball with snow from my car:

That storm has central V.A written all over it.We here in D.C will probably hardy get anything.
Thanks guys!

Yea was aware of position few days ago. Nabb posted it on his twitter page.

Morning all... was trying to post via my phone, but that was not working out for me... lol

Wx here has been overcast and cold since yesterday morning, but at least this a.m. the rain seems to have drawn to a close. T'will be interesting to see whether it continues this chilly beyond tomorrow. I'm also interested in whether we'll get below 60 here overnight... much depends on whether the cloud cover persists into the evening...
Quoting hurricane23:


Yep..Turned in app yesterday.


Great for you.
as for the possible 1090mb...extreme high pressure over Greenland

I got this image from December 15, 2010 depicting a very strong 1078mb anticyclone over Greenland

While we wait on proof out of the Tampa area, my NWS has released their morning forecast package. Who knows, maybe I'll see a flake. Stratocumulus has thickened over the past hour. Temp is 43.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1005 AM EST SUN MAR 3 2013

...SNOW FLURRIES REPORTED ACROSS INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...

.10AM UPDATE...BACON COUNTY 911 DISPATCH HAS CONFIRMED THAT SNOW
FLURRIES HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE COUNTY AND THEY WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND SE GEORGIA FOR THE NEXT 3-5 HOURS. NO IMPACTS
ARE EXPECTED AND A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED.

I'm seeing so many different things for this next storm...

This person outta Virginia keeps showing Virginia getting dumped,

This meteorologist out of Baltimore showed MD and S PA getting hammered,

and My local NWS office last showed a map that gave PA a good amount of snow.....

I give up -_-
This was some REAL march madness. The real outbreak was the next day.

Tornado That Hit Georgia Dome Chronicled in ESPN Film

Basketball shots don't usually save lives, but on a stormy night in Atlanta back in 2008, Mykal Riley might have saved thousands with a single three-pointer.

The Alabama guard sank an improbable shot at the buzzer of the Crimson Tide's second-round game against Mississippi State in the SEC Tournament. The basket forced a five-minute overtime period on March 14, 2008, a Friday night when downtown Atlanta was buzzing with several events. About 20,000 fans were in the Georgia Dome to witness the basketball games that evening, and at the time, it probably seemed like just another postseason buzzer-beater.....

Outside the Dome, an EF2 tornado was approaching. Inside the building, fans were completely unaware -- no weather warnings had been issued to the masses attending the game.

As the tornado passed over the roof, some said it sounded like a freight train. Others feared a terror attack was in progress.

Miracle 3 premieres Sunday at 5 p.m. on ESPN.

_____________________________

And btw Stu Ostro was there:
I was there when the Atlanta tornado hit (and didn't know it!)
Stu Ostro, Senior Meteorologist




Anybody want a repeat of this at the final four in April? ;)
Quoting Doppler22:
I'm seeing so many different things for this next storm...

This person outta Virginia keeps showing Virginia getting dumped,

This meteorologist out of Baltimore showed MD and S PA getting hammered,

and My local NWS office last showed a map that gave PA a good amount of snow.....

I give up -_-
I have given up on this storm to and you should do the same before your feelings get hurt.
On a very slightly related note, does anybody know if WUnderground has a wx widget for Android?
nrtiwlnvragn, do you know when the Governors Hurricane Conference will be held?
Possible significant severe wx per Euro with a broad longwave trough and warm air over the SE:
NAM says DC is on the border of heaviest snow, but snow still falling at end of run:




Strong winds:
GFS puts the 1ft snow bullseye on DC:

Under strong winds:


And high snowfall rates:

Bombs out:






Quoting washingtonian115:
I have given up on this storm to and you should do the same before your feelings get hurt.


You dont trust model consensus?

I know the feeling.
However I dont see you escaping this one without at least 3" of wet snow.

But hey!, at least you dont have the uncertaintly chicago has!!

nam namer
20130303 12 UTC
sim_radar
hr54
nam namer
20130303 12 UTC
sim_radar
hr60
nam namer
20130303 12 UTC
sim_radar
hr66
12z cmc


nam namer
20130303 12 UTC
sim_radar
hr72
GFS and ECWMF agree with a trough in 9 days:





Although the GFS representation of it is not too great for severe wx, the warm airmass could at least support severe thunderstorms if no tornadoes.

ECMWF could potentially be more serious, but too early to tell
nam namer
20130303 12 UTC
sim_radar
hr78
nam namer
20130303 12 UTC
sim_radar
hr84 final
long range CMC..966 mb??







Hmmm... interesting. Now the high temperature for the snow day here is 37F, 6 degrees cooler. While the low temperature is at the freezing point, 4 degrees cooler.
Latest GFS calls for burying Wash DC under 8" or more..

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
nrtiwlnvragn, do you know when the Governors Hurricane Conference will be held?


Assume you mean Florida's, May 5-10
Quoting washingtonian115:
That storm has central V.A written all over it.We here in D.C will probably hardy get anything.


don't worry wash you getting snow as well

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


You dont trust model consensus?

I know the feeling.
However I dont see you escaping this one without at least 3" of wet snow.

But hey!, at least you dont have the uncertaintly chicago has!!


I'll take model number 1 please...
My NWS office even said that a northward shift would mean that the southern half of the CWA would get some accumulating snow.
the 12z GFS ensembles are showing a SC to NE affected area for wednesday's storm as to where this low could track..at this point, the upper air dynamics need to be sampled as this storm could affect a huge population



do you ever report on in being cold? no mention of record cold and snowfall in the upper 48? its march 3rd, and i had already been mowing my lawn at this point last year.
well i was walking the dogs at 4;30 am this morning, yes it was bitterly cold but, no rain, no snow at all..dunno where that local met was getting his info from.
NAM



GFS
Wens is the interesting day midlantic states..........
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Assume you mean Florida's, May 5-10


Yes Florida. Thank you for the link.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
GFS puts the 1ft snow bullseye on DC:

Under strong winds:


And high snowfall rates:



Yikes! Strong winds and heavy snowfall rates for me here in Richmond.... blizzard conditions..
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Latest GFS calls for burying Wash DC under 8" or more..



6-8 for me.

Will be interesting to see what the Euro holds.
Guess that groundhog was wrong this year....


Link

CRITICAL WEATHER DAY STATUS...

CWD WILL PROBABLY BE PUT IN PLACE LATER TODAY.. AFTER THE 12Z
MODEL RUNS AND COORDINATION/DISCUSSIONS ARE CONDUCTED.. DUE TO
THE DEVELOPING WINTER STORM EXPECTED TO IMPACT AREAS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN REGION DURING THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS. MORE
TO COME ON CWD ISSUANCE AFTER THE 12Z MODEL RUNS ARE COMPLETE.
THE CWD WILL INSURE A MORE RELIABLE FLOW OF DATA AND MODEL OUTPUT
TO NWS AND NCEP CENTERS.. DURING THIS WINTER STORM EVENT.


Link

Critical Weather Day Has Been Declared

START: 0000Z Mon Mar 04 2013
END: 1200Z Thu Mar 07 2013

TYPE: Regional

WHO: NCEP..., NWSTG... NCF,... NWS Central Region

REASON: Due to the winter storm expected to impact portions of the
Central and Eastern U.S. during the early portions of this week
(Will probably be adding Eastern Region as soon as coordination is
accomplished with them on this CWD).


Well I waited 4 months to see it, finally had home thermometer drop into upper 20's only time this season, with a 28F reading this morning, March 3rd... First freezing temp since Dec 30th in my part of SE LA, for a total of 4 light freezes all Winter season... The least since Winter '92-93 which had no DJF freezing temps, but did in November and again in March.
Observed my 13th frost also this morn - extremely thick, covered everything in white (lol, snow-like)... Even with higher March sun angle, took over 3 hrs to completely melt away. Rebounding into 50's now, beautiful, very welcome clear sunny day across SE LA.
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
105 PM EST SUN MAR 03 2013

VALID MAR 03/1200 UTC THRU MAR 07/0000 UTC

...EAST COAST STORM ON WEDNESDAY...

BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE UPPER LOW IS BARRELING TOWARD THE EAST
COAST WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN POSITION NEAR THE NORTH
CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE 09Z
SREF MEAN/06Z/12Z GEFSMEAN LOCATION OVER WESTERN VIRGINIA. THE 12Z
NAM IS NEARLY COINCIDENT WITH THE 12Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF REMAINS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND WEST OF ITS 00Z MEAN. THE 12Z
GFS IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF ITS 06Z/12Z GEFSMEAN AND NOW NORTH AND
EAST OF THE 00Z ECMWF MEAN POSITION. THERE IS NO CLEAR WINNER HERE
WITH A MULTI MODEL BLEND A GOOD CHOICE...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z UKMET IS
LOOKING LIKE A BIT OF AN OUTLIER IN HOW FAR SOUTH IT IS.

BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH THE 200 MILE DIFFERENCE NOTED ABOVE
BETWEEN THE SIMILAR 09Z SREFMEAN/06Z/12 GEFSMEAN VERSUS THE 00Z EC
MEAN...THE 12Z NAM HAS SLOWED THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW
LOCATED OVER NE NORTH CAROLINA...BRINGING IT SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE 12Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BUT JUST 75 MILES NORTHEAST
OF THE 00Z EC MEAN POSITION. IN A SENSE...THE 12Z NAM STILL
REMAINS A VIABLE CHOICE FOR THE BLENDS. THE 12Z GFS IS REALLY
CONSISTENT WITH THE 06Z/12 GEFS MEAN BUT IS FASTER THAN THE 12Z
NAM. THE 12Z CANADIAN IS RIGHT BETWEEN THE 00Z ECMWF AND THE 12Z
GFS. HOWEVER...THE 12Z UKMET IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALL THE OPERATIONAL RUNS. IN ALL...NO MODEL STILL STANDS AS
SUPERIOR TO ANY OTHER CONSIDERING THE DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME

WITH THE 12Z UKMET POSSIBLY OUT OF CONTENTION.

IN GENERAL...THE NCEP MODELS ARE FASTER/FARTHER NORTH AND EAST
THAN THE NON-NCEP MODELS WITH THOSE DIFFERENCES CAPABLE OF
DETERMINING SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN IMPACT AS TO WHERE THE
HEAVIEST FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL FALL.

Well, the GFS trends a little bit north with snow... I have to be careful here.
12z JMA




Over 2/3rds of the United States is currently below average temperature wise. Of note is Missisippi, where anomalies nearly 10C below average exist. It is warm on the West coast and up in Maine, however.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Over 2/3rds of the United States is currently below average temperature wise. Of note is Missisippi, where anomalies nearly 10C below average exist. It is warm on the West coast and up in Maine, however.



FWIW, holding steady at 44 here and the average is 71. 15C to 16C below normal for the day. If the cloud deck doesn't thin, temps aren't going any higher.
67.7 here (10:39PST)

Riverside, California (Airport)
Updated: 9:53 AM PST on March 03, 2013
Mostly Cloudy
67 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 24%
Dew Point: 29 °F
Wind: Calm
Pressure: 30.04 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 3 out of 16
Pollen: 8.90 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 11000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 817 ft

69/45 is normal
Quoting washingtonian115:
The lies are very convincing but I mean look at the temperature forcast.Before the "big day" (it be called that for now) highs are near 50 and the actual "big day" highs are in the 40's.Two negative strikes going against something producing big snows here...
Come on Washi cheer up this is your last chance of getting snow this winter,I think just hope you get it :)
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Well, the GFS trends a little bit north with snow... I have to be careful here.

BRING IT NORTH! maybe not up to u if u dont want it but to me :D
Quoting Doppler22:

BRING IT NORTH! maybe not up to u if u dont want it but to me :D


nice one there...
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Well, the GFS trends a little bit north with snow... I have to be careful here.

12z Euro appeared very similar to the 0z run last night, and the runs before that. The Euro has been very consistent with this storm on a southern solution, I think it will pick up another win over the more northerly GFS. Heaviest snow definitely looks to me like it'll stay mostly in VA, WV, and MD.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

12z Euro appeared very similar to the 0z run last night, and the runs before that. The Euro has been very consistent with this storm on a southern solution, I think it will pick up another win over the more northerly GFS. Heaviest snow definitely looks to me like it'll stay mostly in VA, WV, and MD.


remember that picture you put up in my new blog few days ago... ?
Quoting BahaHurican:
On a very slightly related note, does anybody know if WUnderground has a wx widget for Android?



http://www.wunderground.com/download/index.asp

Weather Underground App for Android

The Internet's first ever weather site, Weather Underground has built a reputation for providing the most reliable and in-depth weather data for locations across the world. With our unique network of 22,000 neighborhood weather stations our app provides the most localized weather information available.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


remember that picture you put up in my new blog few days ago... ?

Yep :) There's a reason it has the GFS on it and not the Euro, lol. Euro is far less likely to pull a complete flip flop than the GFS.
just for some humor...

someone put this up in my twitter account... made me laugh

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
just for some humor...

someone put this up in my twitter account... made me laugh

Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

I proposed Winter Storm Sequester on Friday & made a helpful "publicity" graphic for Washington DC
Link
Quoting Luisport:
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

I proposed Winter Storm Sequester on Friday & made a helpful "publicity" graphic for Washington DC
Link


I heard about such name in an AccuWeather video..


I like this.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
just for some humor...

someone put this up in my twitter account... made me laugh


I can't see the image...
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I like this.

That wouldn't be half bad for me
Quoting Doppler22:

That wouldn't be half bad for me


That's a >50% chance of more than 8" for me per the HPC probabilities. Which is what I was leaning towards before even seeing this map.
So hows the upcoming storm trending today, folks? Back to the north a bit? Not expecting to see any snow from this system in central NC, but I still have hope!
I would like to see models take a small shift south. Puts me in the heavy precip.
Quoting wxchaser97:

I can't see the image...


check it again...or here
Quoting WxGeekVA:


That's a >50% chance of more than 8" for me per the HPC probabilities. Which is what I was leaning towards before even seeing this map.

Actually, you have a 40-50% chance of getting 8" . I zoomed in to DC using a paint program so I could see DC clearer.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


check it again...or here

It is working now, thanks.

Quoting tropicfreak:
I would like to see models take a small shift south. Puts me in the heavy precip.

Personally, I'd like a shift north as that would put me in the heavy snow area.
So last night it kept on flurri-ing at my house, and I picked up another dusting of snow. Woot, first two day snowstorm this winter.
Quoting Astrometeor:
So last night it kept on flurri-ing at my house, and I picked up another dusting of snow. Woot, first two day snowstorm this winter.


some is coming my way soon at the coast
12z Euro

Quoting BahaHurican:
On a very slightly related note, does anybody know if WUnderground has a wx widget for Android?
Yes they do but Weatherbug (free) Elite is the one to use, Intellicast has a decent one and Android WX Model Viewer is good for looking at the Nam, GFS, ECMWF, RAP(RR), HRRR, models
The southeastern North Atlantic has really warmed over the last 7 weeks.

Jan 11 (top) vs. March 3 (bottom):

I'll be working on a snowmap for the Midwest in the next hour or two...
It's hard pinpointing, but I'll give my best shot.

Not including the Mid Atlantic business...I'll do that Monday/Tuesday
Quoting Levi32:
The southeastern North Atlantic has really warmed over the last 7 weeks.

Jan 11 (top) vs. March 3 (bottom):

And the equatorial pacific.
After a dry period in Puerto Rico,it looks like this will be a wet week as fronts and troughs move thru.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
248 PM AST SUN MAR 3 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS FLORIDA WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL PASS
THROUGH THIS FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY AND STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. IT IS EXPECTED TO RETURN WEDNESDAY. A SECOND FRONT
APPROACHES ON FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA OVER
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LINE OF SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS FORMED OVER
VIEQUES WITH A SOUTH SOUTHWEST-NORTH NORTHEAST ORIENTATION AND
MOVED SLOWLY TOWARD THE PUERTO RICAN MAINLAND. NO OTHER SHOWERS HAD
FORMED TODAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MOISTURE OVER THE AREA
INCREASING NOW THROUGH MONDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. MODEL RUNS
HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE MAXIMUM SOUTHEAST PUSH OF THE
FRONT BEFORE IT COMES BACK...RANGING FROM THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS TO SOUTHEAST OF SAINT CROIX...BUT AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS AREAS SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF PUERTO RICO SHOULD HAVE ONLY A
LIMITED CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL. MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA THEREAFTER...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ON TAP FOR
PUERTO RICO...MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR PORTIONS AND LESS FOR THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. CURRENT MODELS SUGGEST A SHORT BREAK IN
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WOULD EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FLYING
AREA AND FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LLVL WIND WILL BE FROM THE SE AT 10
KT OR LESS TODAY...VEERING TO THE S TONIGHT AND MONDAY. AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD AND SHWR COVERAGE IS EXPECTED MON TO TUE AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NW. EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS AFTER 04/16Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL...4 TO 5 FEET OR LESS...ALTHOUGH
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH HAVE BEEN GENERATING SOME WIND WAVES AND WEAK
NORTH SWELL CONTINUES FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO. NEXT PULSE OF
SWELL WILL BE ON TUESDAY. LARGER SWELL WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ON TUESDAY...AND SEAS GREATER
THAN 7 FEET ARE EXPECTED AFTER THURSDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND SEVERAL DAYS WITHOUT
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL HAVE GENERATED DRY FUELS...HOWEVER RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BORNE ON SOUTH WINDS HAVE BEEN GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT.
WETTING RAINS IN PUERTO RICO ARE EXPECTED DURING THE 24 HOURS
BEGINNING MONDAY NOON AND IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS 24 HOURS
LATER THAN THIS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 85 74 82 / 10 40 70 70
STT 74 84 74 83 / 10 10 50 50
Chat?

Looking forward to your next map buddy.

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
I'll be working on a snowmap for the Midwest in the next hour or two...
It's hard pinpointing, but I'll give my best shot.

Not including the Mid Atlantic business...I'll do that Monday/Tuesday
Quoting Astrometeor:
Chat?

Looking forward to your next map buddy.



I'll join in if you want...but let me do my map first. Thanks for inviting me.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather -gang/post/major-winter-storm-eyes-washington-dc-a nd-mid-atlantic-for-midweek-snowquester/2013/03/03 /da29188e-842e-11e2-98a3-b3db6b9ac586_blog.html


SREFs give me an average of a foot of snow...

Click for full size

Quoting WxGeekVA:


SREFs give me an average of a foot of snow...

Click for full size

The SREF plume for Detroit is very spread out, from 0.5" to 11.5". Click for bigger size.


RE: 669 TropicsWeatherPR

Thanks so much for the update.

Great two nights out on the seas. Averaged 3-5 lb Yellowtail Snapper. They were like fleas out there. Had to sit on the cooler to close it. Lost the engine and had to be towed in. We'll be down now for a week while we get parts so the "iffy weather" couldn't come at a better time! And I know that a lot of us REALLY need the rain for our cisterns.

Lindy



Quoting LargoFl:
Tonight is the coldest then the warm up begins........



Actually there is another shot of cold weather for Wednesday and Thursday, highs in the 60's and lows in the 40's. Here it looks like we'll be down near freezing again.
Got the new SREFs here. Still 11" mean, but fewer low outliers.

snow bands weakening..might not even see a flake out of it...


Like VA said, the new SREF plumes are out. A little better consensus for snowfall accumulation in Detroit. Click for bigger image.


Wow. 18Z NAM. Woah. Dang.






Quoting WxGeekVA:
Wow. 18Z NAM. Woah. Dang.








Bad model this far out lol. Is also an outlier.
Winter Update #111

Ok, so here I have placed Chicago for some big snow...
**Notice carefully that Minneapolis/St. Paul lie just east of the 7-13" light purple shade..The Twin cities could be around 1 foot of snow..

The dark purple is for over 15"

Detroit is under some snow, maybe a dusting to some more... Cleveland, Indianapolis, Gary, Des Moines, Madison are all up for half a foot of snow.. maybe more.
Northern Michigan only a coating, the southern portions for more.

**Chicago has to be carefully watched...they could get a big chunk of snow.


click on image for larger view...
comments?
Quoting Neapolitan:
I dunno. I read through a lot of the comments, and wasn't convinced. I mean, some were pretty fuzzy. As in: "I drove around all night looking for snow and saw none, but my best friend's cousin's ex-girlfriend's boss's third wife's fiance's mortgage broker got a call from a guy in New York who said he talked to his nephew in Tampa who was at a party last night in Brandom when this girl came in to say she thought she saw a few snowflakes earlier, and when she told her boyfriend--who used to live up north, so he knows what snow looks like--he agreed that it maybe could have been a flake, except it was still about 55 degrees outside, and anyway she couldn't take a picture of it because she was too busy keeping her car on the snow-covered road, and when she finally did stop to take one, all the snow had melted already so she can't provide any photographic evidence. But that's good enough for me!" ;-)

The one cellphone "snowfall" video I've seen showed what looked to be a very light drizzle backlit by a street light, so it's not much help. There are dozens of pictures of the 1977 Florida snowfall event; I would imagine, then, that in this day and age, where everyone has a cellphone and every cellphone is a high-def camera, surely someone has a conclusive picture/video. So until we see that, I'd say we have to assume it didn't happen...

But, as always, we'll see...




I did see one video of what looks like potential evidence of sleet or graupel falling and hitting the vehicle, the windshield and around the vehicle on the ground. Sadly you can't share facebook videos here so I can't post the video, but out of everything I've see it was the best proof of winter precip although not the best video quality.


What is weird is that the event occurred in East Lake FL, and temps were in the mid to upper 40's during the time. While that seems suspiciously too high, it sure does look like ice pellets on the video. If you want to find the video, search through the videos posted on Denis Phillips wall.

I'm not really entirely sure how it would be possible for winter precip to fall in that situation, but weather has done stranger things before that are confusing sometimes.

Otherwise though, there aren't any trained spotter reports of snow or any winter precip. I suspect its possible that a few people did see some given the video of apparent graupel. However, I would say the majority of public sitings of it were people hopeful to see snow and so they wanted it to happen even if they didn't really see it. With that said the lack of any precip of any kind makes it possible for trained weather spotters to n ot encounter anything while a few local spots would. I think with a low freezing level like last night its not impossible some people did indeed see snow or ice pellets although very isolated. Overall it wasn't an official event but like Denis Philips said it's still fun to discuss and cover despite its lack of real support.
Quoting tropicfreak:


Bad model this far out lol. Is also an outlier.


Not taking it seriously, just hoping it happens :)
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Wow. 18Z NAM. Woah. Dang.







Yeah something tells me that won't happen. It is still too far out to pinpoint the heaviest snowfall amounts.

Quoting Jedkins01:




I did see one video of what looks like pretty good evidence of sleet or graupel falling and hitting the vehicle, the windshield and around the vehicle on the ground. Sadly you can't share facebook videos so I can't post the video, but out of everything I've see it was the best proof of winter precip although not the best video quality.


What is weird is that the event occurred in East Lake FL, and temps were in the mid to upper 40's during the time. While that seems suspiciously too high, it sure does look like ice pellets on the video. If you want to find the video, search through the videos posted on Denis Phillips wall.

I'm not really entirely sure how it would be possible for winter precip to fall in that situation, but weather has done stranger things before that are confusing sometimes.

Otherwise though, there aren't any trained spotter reports of snow or any winter precip. I suspect its possible that a few people did see some given the video of apparent graupel. However, I would say the majority of public sitings of it were people hopeful to see snow and so they wanted it to happen even if they didn't really see it. With that said the lack of any precip of any kind makes it possible for trained weather spotters to n ot encounter anything while a few local spots would. I think with a low freezing level like last night its not impossible some people did indeed see snow or ice pellets although very isolated. Overall it wasn't an official event but like Denis Philips said it's still fun to discuss and cover despite its lack of real support.

I think I know what video you're talking about. If it was graupel, it probably wasn't from Florida. Just looked like rain to me though.
Walrus found on a beach in Scotland, 1,000 miles from its natural habitat in Greenland. Looks like it's lost a bit of weight. Described as a 'once in a lifetime' event.



BBC Link
This still has major uncertainties with amounts as even a small shift north or south would move the heaviest snowfall.
Quoting yonzabam:
Walrus found on a beach in Scotland, 1,000 miles from its natural habitat in Greenland.


He came for the haggis.
Quoting AGWcreationists:

He came for the haggis.


Looks like he could do with some.
SNOW!!!! Again
Quoting Bielle:
SNOW!!!! Again


Bien sur!
we had a few instances of graupel here in EC Alabama yesterday..folks were all excited!
How the Low Will Track:

HPC


12z CMC


18Z NAM


12z Euro


12Z Ukmet


18z GFS??


All major models.
Chicago and Milwaukee are both under winter storm watches now.
I promised a friend in the Thurmont/Frederick, MD area that I would send her a foot of snow. I sure hope it happens!..lol
12z GFS


18z GFS
I thought I was going to get off easy with this storm passing to my west and south. Now it looks like there's a good chance we'll be hammered with lake-effect snow on the south shore of Lake Superior:

If this thing dont give me all snow on the backside, then i'd rather have it all rain. Dont want no mix, or ice.

18Z GFS hr 69

18Z NAM hr 72
Quoting 47n91w:
I thought I was going to get off easy with this storm passing to my west and south. Now it looks like there's a good chance we'll be hammered with lake-effect snow on the south shore of Lake Superior:

They have moved the forecast for snow more and more north and east in the last couple of days. Started out with just an inch or two now up to 6 to 9 according to the graph.
Quoting nymore:
They have moved the forecast for snow more and more north and east in the last couple of days. Started out with just an inch or two now up to 6 to 9 according to the graph.


It does seem like the models are nudging a little more east across MN and into WI. The dry NE air usually creates a sharp cut-off as air feeds down from the Hudson Bay area, so I still think there's a bust potential for lake-effect. The inversion might be too high and the air too dry across the the big Lake.

That doesn't help your cause back in northcentral MN. At least we have a healthy snowpack across the region, and and any snow will only help even more.

Did you have below 0 lows last night too, nymore? I had -5 before dawn, about 7 degrees lower than forecast. It felt a little chilly out this morning when I was measuring snow depth for CoCoRaHS. I should look at the thermometer before I head outside in shorts!
Hi Wash. Well,I know you dont trust the models but things are looking good for DC to get snow this time around. Here is the NAM with 6-12 inches for the nations capital.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Hi Wash. Well,I know you dont trust the models but things are looking good for DC this time around. Here is the NAM with 6-12 inches for the nations capital.





18z gfs suggests over a foot in DC. Near 14 inches near Bethesda/Chevy Chase and maybe Tenleytown.
Yawn. Lotta bandwith wasted on a whole 6" of snow. You've got to be a real dyed in the wool weather geek to get excited by that. Roll on September.
phasing:

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Hi Wash. Well,I know you dont trust the models but things are looking good for DC to get snow this time around. Here is the NAM with 6-12 inches for the nations capital.



WOW!


My snow map


Latest GFS
I'm still very skeptical.

GFS

NAM

Wait, the NAM was an outlier again?
Quoting BahaHurican:
On a very slightly related note, does anybody know if WUnderground has a wx widget for Android?


Link
Quoting AussieStorm:


Link


Hi Aussie...how you been feeling mate?
I'll be going to eat then to church..

I might update my snowmap if I find significant changes for Midwest.
I'll do the East coast snow tomorrow.

Be back late tonight..meanwhile have fun y'all
Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm still very skeptical.
only for a little while longer
Happy digging ....

So windy:
925mb(can mix down in precip) ROARING


And HIGH surface winds:


Foot and a half of snow+:



Cold air/ bombing low:



Heavy precip:

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


Hi Aussie...how you been feeling mate?

ok I guess, thanks for asking
Here's the snow measurement from yesterday here in White Bluff, TN






Mi Casa



Drving past Montgomery Bell State Park




Here's a shot from this morning as the sun came out and well...




This run doesnt let the NE (MA/RI/CT) off the hook either:



925mb, ouch:


Surface, ouch 50mph onshore winds:



Bombing low cold air:


6-12 inch snowfall for Boston and surrounding areas:
Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm still very skeptical.


Are you trying to reverse psychology the storm into coming? :P

In other news

Chris Holcomb ‏@ChrisHolcomb

Record snowfall in Atlanta today. From NWS: A RECORD SNOWFALL OF TRACE WAS SET AT ATL TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF NO SNOWFALL.
Retweeted by Mike Francis

lol
Actually over a foot in west boston:
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
133 PM EST SUN MAR 3 2013

...WINDY AFTERNOON IS IN PROGRESS...

...FREEZE WARNING ISSUED FOR LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...

FLZ041-044-141-144-041300-
/O.NEW.KMLB.FZ.W.0003.130304T0600Z-130304T1300Z/
/O.CON.KMLB.LW.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-130304T0000Z/
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-COASTAL VOLUSIA-SOUTHERN LAKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE LAND...LEESBURG...DAYTONA BEACH...
CLERMONT
133 PM EST SUN MAR 3 2013

...A FREEZE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM MONDAY...

...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM MONDAY.

* WINDS...NEAR 20 TO 25 MPH...GUSTING TO 30 TO 35 MPH THROUGH
SUNSET.

* TEMPERATURE...DROPPING TO AROUND 32 DEGREES TOWARD SUNRISE
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR FREEZING MORE QUICKLY IN
NORMALLY COLDER WIND SHELTERED AREAS...AND COULD REACH 30
DEGREES IN THESE LOCATIONS.

* IMPACTS...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS ON INLAND LAKES
AS WELL AS THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY THROUGH SUNSET.

PERSONS SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT COLD SENSITIVE PLANTS AND
PETS BEFORE GOING TO BED TONIGHT. EITHER COVER THEM UP OR MOVE
THEM INDOORS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL DAMAGE OR KILL SENSITIVE
VEGETATION.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY INDICATES THAT WINDS WILL CAUSE ROUGH CHOP
ON AREA LAKES. SMALL BOATS WILL BE ESPECIALLY PRONE TO CAPSIZING.


&&

$$
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
IN PLACE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY.

A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A FREEZE WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN...WHILE A HARD
FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR WELL INLAND LOCATIONS. A WIDESPREAD
AND HEAVY FROST IS EXPECTED NEARLY REGION-WIDE AS WINDS BECOME
NEARLY CALM LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE ALONG THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AT
BAXLEY...EVERETT CITY...AND CHARLOTTE. RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ALSO
CONTINUE FOR THE SATILLA RIVER AT BOTH ATKINSON AND WAYCROSS AND
ALAPAHA RIVER AT STATENVILLE. A RIVER FLOODING WARNING ALSO IN
EFFECT FOR THE SANTA FE RIVER AT THREE RIVERS ESTATES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
THE NEARSHORE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS ON TUESDAY NIGHT...AND NEAR GALE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OFFSHORE THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

$$

NELSON/MKT/JCH
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Are you trying to reverse psychology the storm into coming? :P

In other news

Chris Holcomb ‏@ChrisHolcomb

Record snowfall in Atlanta today. From NWS: A RECORD SNOWFALL OF TRACE WAS SET AT ATL TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF NO SNOWFALL.
Retweeted by Mike Francis

lol
After the lies the models have told? (and that embarrassing time when the NWS were forecasting 8 inches of snow in D.C back in January).Look at the temperature forecast.
Severe tstorms and winter weather adviosries in montana:

60mph winds


Current wx there:


Hvy hail, Mod Snow
33F
1C



Late Afternoon = Rain and snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 52. Northwest wind around 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Tonight = Snow showers likely before 11pm, then a chance of snow showers after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. West wind around 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

all the area is reporting snow/hail snow
Quoting 47n91w:


It does seem like the models are nudging a little more east across MN and into WI. The dry NE air usually creates a sharp cut-off as air feeds down from the Hudson Bay area, so I still think there's a bust potential for lake-effect. The inversion might be too high and the air too dry across the the big Lake.

That doesn't help your cause back in northcentral MN. At least we have a healthy snowpack across the region, and and any snow will only help even more.

Did you have below 0 lows last night too, nymore? I had -5 before dawn, about 7 degrees lower than forecast. It felt a little chilly out this morning when I was measuring snow depth for CoCoRaHS. I should look at the thermometer before I head outside in shorts!
Not below zero last night but the night before. I doubt it will be the last one though.


@anitavanvoorst Anita vV
Nice CG lightning pic from Saudi Arabia
In the past week, my "refresh" return is always to the top of the comment section. Before that, it was to the last comment of the previous set of posts. How do I get it to go back to the way it was permanently? It is really tedious scrolling through from the top of the comments section every time.

Thanks
ECMWF shows significant severe wx possible from the southern ohio valley to the carolinas in 8-9 days.

potentially our first big outbreak.
Quoting Bielle:
In the past week, my "refresh" return is always to the top of the comment section. Before that, it was to the last comment of the previous set of posts. How do I get it to go back to the way it was permanently? It is really tedious scrolling through from the top of the comments section every time.

Thanks

I am having that same problem and it is annoying. I don't know what is causing it or how to fix it.
Quoting wxchaser97:

I am having that same problem and it is annoying. I don't know what is causing it or how to fix it.


I know that I can fix it each session by removing the word "top" at the end of the address line so that it just ends with "#comment", but I don't know how to do it permanently.
Quoting washingtonian115:
After the lies the models have told? (and that embarrassing time when the NWS were forecasting 8 inches of snow in D.C back in January).Look at the temperature forecast.


Hasn't your Journey taught you to Don't stop believin' ?


Anyway,I'm hoping you get snow .

Your NWS says

PRECIP WILL LIKELY END AS A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW EVERYWHERE LATE WED
ONCE COLDER AIR WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE
OF THE DEPARTING LOW. FCST WILL CERTAINLY NEED REFINEMENT AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

STRONG NLY WINDS POSSIBLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE COASTAL LOW WED
AFTN AND NGT. POWER OUTAGES WOULD CERTAINLY BE A CONCERN IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVE HVY WET SNOW
MS to Carolinas....reminds me of april 14-16, but less powerful






well no freeze by me tonight,temp upped 8 degrees's now..
Quoting Bielle:


I know that I can fix it each session by removing the word "top" at the end of the address line so that it just ends with "#comment", but I don't know how to do it permanently.


Hey Bielle..
What I did is after I cut out the #comment I bookmarked the page..and just use that for landing here
Now I don't know if its a permanent fix or not but so far I' m good..


GEFS Mean
The name snowquester has been adopted here in D.C.CWG is now using it and thinks the market channel's Saturn sounds to sissy.

Georgiastormz the winter of 2012 has taught me to stop believing.
...FREEZE WARNING ISSUED FOR LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES EARLY
MONDAY MORNING...

FLZ041-044-141-144-041300-
/O.NEW.KMLB.FZ.W.0003.130304T0600Z-130304T1300Z/
/O.CON.KMLB.LW.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-130304T0000Z/
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-COASTAL VOLUSIA-SOUTHERN LAKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE LAND...LEESBURG...DAYTONA BEACH...
CLERMONT
133 PM EST SUN MAR 3 2013

...A FREEZE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM MONDAY...

...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM MONDAY.

* WINDS...NEAR 20 TO 25 MPH...GUSTING TO 30 TO 35 MPH THROUGH
SUNSET.

* TEMPERATURE...DROPPING TO AROUND 32 DEGREES TOWARD SUNRISE
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO NEAR FREEZING MORE QUICKLY IN
NORMALLY COLDER WIND SHELTERED AREAS...AND COULD REACH 30
DEGREES IN THESE LOCATIONS.

* IMPACTS...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS ON INLAND LAKES
AS WELL AS THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY THROUGH SUNSET.

PERSONS SHOULD TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT COLD SENSITIVE PLANTS AND
PETS BEFORE GOING TO BED TONIGHT. EITHER COVER THEM UP OR MOVE
THEM INDOORS.
Not sure if GFS is crazy or right

Still not sure what the precip will be Wash D.C................A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING RAIN OR SNOW...GUSTY
WINDS...AND POSSIBLY COASTAL FLOODING. UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK
OF THE LOW AND LOCATION OF THE RAIN-SNOW LINE REMAINS RATHER HIGH
SO PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATES.
">

Meanwhile, in DC...
GFS at 186 hours..................
This is cold here believe it or not................
Please NO EL NINO this year!
When I went to Safeway this afternoon I noticed something's we're more sold out than usual.People were acting a fool and lines were long.So they've heard huh?.
Quoting washingtonian115:
When I went to Safeway this afternoon I noticed something's we're more sold out than usual.People were acting a fool and lines were long.So they've heard huh?.


WASH! ZOMG SNOW! See my previous video on what everyone's doing right now.
changed again tonight,took all my plants in.....
Quoting WxGeekVA:


WASH! ZOMG SNOW! See my previous video on what everyone's doing right now.
I'm just waiting to see the forecast bust.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm just waiting to see the forecast bust.


If 6" is a bust, I will be happy.
Hey guys, LTNS, I heard we are supposed to get a buttload of snow on wednesday, but that was according to TWC, Wunderground calls for only rain, so what are we here gonna get? Rain or Snow? Or a Mix? ???

I'm in the Pasadena/Green Haven area in Maryland.

So what's it gonna be?
Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm just waiting to see the forecast bust.

Wash, I am sure it is going to snow in DC from this storm.
NAM at 72 hours.....................
Quoting Articuno:
Hey guys, LTNS, I heard we are supposed to get a buttload of snow on wednesday, but that was according to TWC, Wunderground calls for only rain, so what are we here gonna get? Rain or Snow? Or a Mix? ???

I'm in the Pasadena/Green Haven area in Maryland.

So what's it gonna be?

Sometimes it feels like the BestForecast can have a warm bias and show rain when NWS, TWC, etc show snow in these types of situations. The NWS has a mix of rain and snow and all snow in the end.
North Americas most trusted forecaster is starting to issue warnings. The first is for Winnipeg.

"

I think this guy is great, I just love his passion
Quoting Articuno:
Hey guys, LTNS, I heard we are supposed to get a buttload of snow on wednesday, but that was according to TWC, Wunderground calls for only rain, so what are we here gonna get? Rain or Snow? Or a Mix? ???

I'm in the Pasadena/Green Haven area in Maryland.

So what's it gonna be?


A mix, then snow. 4-8" snow probably.
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A MODERATE SNOWFALL IS
POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. THE ONSET OF THE SNOW WOULD
LIKELY BE TUESDAY EVENING OR TUESDAY NIGHT.

POTENTIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS FROM THIS STORM WILL LIKELY VARY
GREATLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT THE AMOUNTS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATES AT
WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE
Quoting WxGeekVA:


A mix, then snow. 4-8" snow probably.

:O
Quoting WxGeekVA:


If 6" is a bust, I will be happy.
Your in the suburbs.So it's a little colder out there than it is here.Who knows it might be mix event here in the city.
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...EAST
CENTRAL OHIO...NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...SOUTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA...WEST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
AND NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$


Freeze Warning Tonight For Citrus and Hernando Counties

5:52 PM, Mar 3, 2013

Mostly clear skies tonight will give way to good radiational cooling resulting in below freezing temps for some locations across the viewing area. Citrus and Hernando Counties are under a freeze warning from 1 AM tonight until 10 AM Monday where several hours of below freezing temps are expected. Northwest winds will diminish to 10 mph or less after midnight. High pressure building in across the area will give us a sunny and dry day on Monday, with temperatures quickly moderating for the afternoon.

On Tuesday night a cold front will move into our northern zones bringing us a chance of showers late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Although the air mass behind this front will not be as cold as the previous one, it will still drop low temperatures back into the 40's for wednesday night.







CURRENT CONDITIONS

Tampa, FL (33609)


50°F (10°C)

Broken Clouds




Humidity:

50%



Feels Like:

50°F



Wind:

15 mph



7:00 PM
50°F


10:00 PM
48°F



My last electric bill was $95. That is low for me. With this cool spell, hoping for a little lower bill next month...For tomorrow...

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
ECMWF shows significant severe wx possible from the southern ohio valley to the carolinas in 8-9 days.

potentially our first big outbreak.

Already had one of those.



Interesting, 18z GFS decided to throw close to a foot of snow my way from this storm, the trend seems to be north, except for the Euro. I still think this is mostly a mid-Atlantic storm though. I think a blend of the 12z GFS, 12z Euro, and 12z CMC is the best option right now. Highest totals of 18" or so for inland VA and WV. Don't even think about taking the 18z NAM QPF and resulting snow totals seriously.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Wash, I am sure it is going to snow in DC from this storm.



She'll bust yer butt for saying that if it is a bust forecast! LOL
Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:



She'll bust yer butt for saying that if it is a bust forecast! LOL

And if DC gets 0" of snow from this storm, I'll fully except it. Lol. I confident DC will get a decent snowfall, especially for the season they are having, I just don't know how much exactly they'll get.
I think the city of DC itself will struggle to get heavy accumulation. Too warm. Forecast high Wednesday is 38F, with a low temp. Tuesday night of 35F. It can snow as much as it wants at those temperatures, but nothing will stick. I think the city will be lucky to see 6".
There's very little chance Washington, D.C. gets off with less than 3 inches of snow at this point...and that's being very conservative. 6-8" looks like a good forecast.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I think the city of DC itself will struggle to get heavy accumulation. Too warm. Forecast high Wednesday is 38F, with a low temp. Tuesday night of 35F. It can snow as much as it wants at those temperatures, but nothing will stick. I think the city will be lucky to see 6".


Rates cool the column down, if we see heavy precip (which I think we will) the accumulations will be a lot higher.
well good night folks..stay warm..and good morning Aussie..coffee is perked for when you get here....have a good night everyone!


Hundreds of Ice Balls Form Along Lake Michigan

A natural winter phenomenon on the shores of Lake Michigan has been getting a bit of attention.

Hundreds of ice balls, some weighing roughly 50 pounds, are piled along the Michigan shoreline west of Traverse City.

"The water temperature on Lake Michigan is just a little bit below freezing, the actual water temperature, so you get a small little piece of ice that forms out in the water, and as the waves move back and forth it adds additional water onto this, and so it basically freezes in layers and it gets bigger and bigger and bigger,"explained Joe Charlevoix, a meteorologist with NBCaffiliate WPBN. "Eventually you get these big balls of ice and they get pushed on shore by a lot of the wind."

A deputy superintendent from the Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshore park, Tom Ulrich, said the phenomenon isn't rare, it's just that the boulders this year are larger than normal.


Source: http://www.nbcchicago.com/weather/stories/lake-mic higan-chicago-ice-balls-194055141.html#ixzz2MWlaED EP
Quoting pcola57:


Hey Bielle..
What I did is after I cut out the #comment I bookmarked the page..and just use that for landing here
Now I don't know if its a permanent fix or not but so far I' m good..


Thanks, Pcola! I'll let you know if it works for me. I have a feeling that it will only work until Dr Masters changes to a new blog topic.
Hopefully tonight will be the last freeze of the season...
However, forecasts have trended colder with the next front by mid week now bringing highs back into the upper 50's and mid 30's for lows, no freeze forecast yet though.

We'll see, I think the next front midweek is the last of the deep trough pattern looking at long term models. Looks as if a big warming trend will occur in the Southeast just in time for the start of Spring Break next weekend!

I'm headed home for Spring Break to see my friends and family back there instead of terminating brain cells and embarrassing myself in some foreign country in the tropics lol.

Besides, my home itself is already in a spring break paradise, Clearwater FL! ;)
Quoting Bielle:


Thanks, Pcola! I'll let you know if it works for me. I have a feeling that it will only work until Dr Masters changes to a new blog topic.


You may well be right about that..
I wish they would fix it.. :(
An updated snowfall map, just some minor changes in the Mid Atlantic and Minnesota areas. I am gaining confidence in this forecast, but of course there can/will be track and amount changes.
787. 900MB
Quoting TheGreatHodag:




18z gfs suggests over a foot in DC. Near 14 inches near Bethesda/Chevy Chase and maybe Tenleytown.
Quoting TheGreatHodag:




18z gfs suggests over a foot in DC. Near 14 inches near Bethesda/Chevy Chase and maybe Tenleytown.


Not buying it. Think it will be totally different picture tomorrow night. Predicting too strong of a storm for too little precip field. Something's will give!
Bring it to nyc/LI.
GFS has been near its top performance lately. The ECMWF continues to do ever so slightly better, however (not shown).

789. beell
18Z GFS develops the dry slot offshore. NAM is inland. Could make a difference in overall snow coverage.


03/03 18Z 700mb RH. NAM (left), GFS (right). Both frames valid 7AM EST Wednesday
The last two days here in Nassau have probably been the two rawest days I've seen since I moved here.

Yesterday: Low 60's, NW wind of 15mph, and on and off rain.
Today: Mid 60's, NW wind of 15-20 mph, no rain. But just wasn't inviting to go outside at all.

A true bahamian characteristic is to think anything below 79 degrees is freezing. In this case, I have my ski jacket on.

Hope everyone is doing well up in the bitter.
One person was injured this evening when strong winds flipped over a semi-trailer in Montana. The storm actually had a warning for winds and heavy snow:

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
332 PM MST SUN MAR 3 2013

MTC003-032245-
/O.CON.KBYZ.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-130303T2245Z/
BIG HORN MT-
332 PM MST SUN MAR 3 2013

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM MST
FOR NORTH CENTRAL BIG HORN COUNTY...

AT 323 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. THESE STORM WERE LOCATED NEAR HARDIN...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.
IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS...THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
SNOW WHICH WILL CAUSE NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HARDIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES
PER HOUR...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION
MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR
BUSINESS.

&&

LAT...LON 4563 10723 4566 10803 4584 10804 4590 10724
TIME...MOT...LOC 2223Z 268DEG 42KT 4576 10767

$$
792. beell

15Z SREF 1000-500mb 540 Thickness at 60 and 69 hrs. Black dashed line represents ensemble mean.
Weather Service calls for possible moderate to major coastal flooding this week

Sunday, March 03, 2013 07:20 pm
R.J. LIBERATORE JR.

Gusty winds along with moderate to major coastal flooding could impact the New Jersey coast around midweek when a powerful low pressure system forms off the coast, according to the National Weather Service Mount Holly Prediction Center.

Moderate flooding is also possible along the Delaware Bay, the Weather Service said during a 5 p.m. storm update on Sunday, March 3.

The period to watch is the time of high tide on Wednesday afternoon and again on Thursday morning.

Also, the New Jersey coast could be battered on Wednesday with peak wind gusts exceeding 60 mph. Gusts ranging from 40-45 mph could reach as far inland as eastern Pennsylvania, the Weather Service said.
796. beell

18Z NAM Point-Forecast Soundings for Washinton, DC at 54 and 63 hrs.

Burning up some snow for about 10 hrs to moisten/cool the column to the surface?
WU states it is 53 in West Palm. Just took the pup for a walk, and with the wind, just plain ole cold. Considered turning the heat on, but last time I did, the fuse blew and cost me more $200.

This is from the Capital Weather Gang

Overview: The odds of a high impact storm (we’re calling it Snowquester) have grown today, and we’re closing in on a range where confidence is increasing. As noted earlier, we think there’s a 70-80% chance of at least 1 inch of snow, a 45-60% of at least 5 inches, and lower but plausible odds of at least 10 inches.

While tonight’s model results roll out, we’ll keep you updated on the latest data they show. The entries should not be interpreted as our forecast. Instead, we aim to provide insight into the process of model watching. Once we get past the main early set of model data (around 11:00 p.m.), we’ll provide a short update to our forecast.

8:45 p.m.: First up, the Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) mean. Basically a hold from prior runs for most of us. Lots of precipitation (well over 1-1.5” liquid over the area). See the current run for a 24-hour period versus the previous. Also important from this set of ensembles, the key mid-level feature is in more or less the same spot as other model guidance today.

The North American Model, already running, is up next...

SREF looks great for my area, by the end of the run its already given me close to an inch of precip, and that's not the entire storm. Depending on whether temperatures allow for accumulation up here, we may end up with a decent little storm. This is 24 hour precip total at 87 hours, the end of the run:



The precip shown in the mid-Atlantic on that map obviously does not represent the entire storm, actual amounts there are much higher, I'm referring to southern New England.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
SREF looks great for my area, by the end of the run its already given me close to an inch of precip, and that's not the entire storm. Depending on whether temperatures allow for accumulation up here, we may end up with a decent little storm. This is 24 hour precip total at 87 hours, the end of the run:



The precip shown in the mid-Atlantic on that map obviously does not represent the entire storm, actual amounts there are much higher, I'm referring to southern New England.

I hope the SREF turns out to be right, as it has about 7" of snow in Detroit. I may want winter to be over, but one last snowstorm wouldn't be bad.
The updated discussion by the San Juan NWS confirms the more wet scenario for Puerto Rico this week.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
945 PM AST SUN MAR 3 2013

.UPDATE...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
CLOUDINESS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION DURING THE LATE EVENING
HOURS...AS A BAND OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE HAS BEGUN TO SET UP IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WAS PRESENTLY CROSSING
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND HISPANIOLA. THE PREVAILING SOUTHERLY WIND
FLOW BROUGHT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF PUERTO
RICO...BUT THE ACTIVITY WAS OF SHORT DURATION. OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUED ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. A SOLID NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED BAND OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINED WEST OF THE REGION...BUT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SAG
FURTHER EAST BEFORE BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY AND LINGER JUST
WEST AND NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. EXPECT THE BOUNDARY OR SHEAR LINE
TO BRING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO THE REGION TO
INCREASE AND ENHANCE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE SHEAR LINE IS EXPECTED TO GET HUNG UP/STALL
ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE PREVAILING
WIND FLOW TO LIFT MOISTURE UP ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR... DO NOT THINK WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS LIKELY AT THIS TIME BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...AS
WELL AS THE PRESENT OBSERVATIONS NOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO THE WEST. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST
FOR NOW...AS THERE WAS MORE THAN ENOUGH POPS AND WX FOR THE MOMENT.
I posted a blog a few minutes ago on this winter storm comin....if anyone wants to read.
Link
ClimateChange: the hidden stressor in political upheaval
...from 2006 to 2011, up to 60 percent of Syria’s land experienced the worst drought ever recorded there — at a time when Syria’s population was exploding...
In 2009...more than 800,000 Syrians lost their entire livelihoods as a result of the great drought, which led to...a massive exodus of farmers, herders, and agriculturally dependent rural families from the Syrian countryside to the cities...fueling unrest.
The future does not look much brighter. On a scale of wetness conditions...where a reading of -4 or below is considered extreme drought...Syria and its neighbors face projected readings of -8 to -15 as a result of climatic changes in the next 25 years.
Watching the 0z NAM come in, it's out to 57 hours, so far looks like a stronger low (more precip) and similar placement compared to the 18z run.

0z 57 hours:



18z 63 hours:

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Watching the 0z NAM come in, it's out to 57 hours, so far looks like a stronger low (more precip) and similar placement compared to the 18z run.

0z 57 hours:



18z 63 hours:



Heavier precip shown for central NC in that newest run. Unfortunate for me, I dont have much confidence in the NAM at all....never have. Sorta like I never cared for Jason Aldean, but dont know why. Lol.
00z Nam shifted somewhat southward

00z


18z
Quoting Levi32:
The southeastern North Atlantic has really warmed over the last 7 weeks.

Jan 11 (top) vs. March 3 (bottom):


Showing that comparison makes me wonder, can you directly plot the anomaly delta? Would be very useful.
Quoting wxchaser97:
An updated snowfall map, just some minor changes in the Mid Atlantic and Minnesota areas. I am gaining confidence in this forecast, but of course there can/will be track and amount changes.




Is that prediction showing 6-12" for Indiana, or 12"+?
Quoting TomTaylor:

Showing that comparison makes me wonder, can you directly plot the anomaly delta? Would be very useful.


I could if I could find a decent archive of CDAS data. Right now the real-time data only goes back 24 hours and the archives of CFS data I know of aren't very up-to-date, so short-term comparisons are difficult. The plot from January was a random plot of mine that I found so I could compare the two.

I could do it if I acquire the hard-disk space to archive the CDAS files myself for months at a time, but I don't know if I will be able to do that soon.
6 month global sea surface temperature anomaly GIF:

wait a minute... new England snow?


I though it was heading out after leaving Mid-Atlantic...gotta catch up with the updates
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
SREF looks great for my area, by the end of the run its already given me close to an inch of precip, and that's not the entire storm. Depending on whether temperatures allow for accumulation up here, we may end up with a decent little storm. This is 24 hour precip total at 87 hours, the end of the run:



The precip shown in the mid-Atlantic on that map obviously does not represent the entire storm, actual amounts there are much higher, I'm referring to southern New England.


Im confused...what does that mean?
Quoting Levi32:


I could if I could find a decent archive of CDAS data. Right now the real-time data only goes back 24 hours and the archives of CFS data I know of aren't very up-to-date, so short-term comparisons are difficult. The plot from January was a random plot of mine that I found so I could compare the two.

I could do it if I acquire the hard-disk space to archive the CDAS files myself for months at a time, but I don't know if I will be able to do that soon.
I cant see the gfs loop on your site. It loads but nothing happens and i try on another browser and the same problem persist.
00z gfs looks effectively the same as the 18z run


0Z (BEST) GFS still has me aat <1' snow
Quoting Gearsts:
I cant see the gfs loop on your site. It loads but nothing happens and i try on another browser and the same problem persist.


My models are down at the moment due to my server admin, and have been for over a week. I apologize for not getting a notice up on the page. I've been too busy to properly deal with the problem. My current server is getting annoying. I might upgrade soon, which would hopefully fix the script downtime.
Check this out...New England may be pushing itself into play.

Updating my map....

Increasing the snowfall up to a foot..(maybe more) in Minn/St. Paul. Nearly 10" in Chicago/Gary and up to 3" or more around Detroit.


I see the models are still showing doom and gloom.But hopefully this won't lead to flooding problems.The ground is already saturated and the temps are going to be rising in the mid to upper 50's after the storm.Couple that with what the models are showing and you got a disaster down the road.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I see the models are still showing doom and gloom.But hopefully this won't lead to flooding problems.The ground is already saturated and the temps are going to be rising in the mid to upper 50's after the storm.Couple that with what the models are showing and you got a disaster down the road.


Im telling you.. there is going to be very thick snow falling, that is the only way it's going to accumulate around your area. Temperatures could pay against it.
Evening all.

Our local met gave our current temp here in Nassau as 58, with the projected overnight low as 56. That's about as cold as it ever gets here... temps under 55 are quite rare. Tomorrow's high is only supposed to get to 71.

Link

With skies clearing behind the passage of the front, I wouldn't be surprised to see the overnight low at or below 55 either tonight or tomorrow.

This is pretty cold for March...
Air temperatures, while a big player in overall snow accumulation totals, are not the only factor to take into consideration. You also have to look at the rate at which the snow is expected to fall and the soil temperatures. In the case of Washington, D.C., temperatures will be slightly above freezing at the onset, yes, but very heavy snow is expected to be falling and soil temperatures are currently running 35-45F. That's not horrible and certainly wouldn't lead to a non-event accumulation wise.

Is it ideal? No. But it definitely works.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Evening all.

Our local met gave our current temp here in Nassau as 58, with the projected overnight low as 56. That's about as cold as it ever gets here... temps under 55 are quite rare. Tomorrow's high is only supposed to get to 71.


Yikes!
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Yikes!
I note it's only 72 in Inagua right now... u may get a brush of cooler than average temps yourself...


From Monday to Wednesday...
There is something with early March and snowstorms in Southeast Michigan. There may be one on Tuesday-Wednesday depending on if the models/storm shift north. From the NWS Detroit:

March 4 has seen many snowstorms across Southeast Michigan. Snowstorms have occurred in 1895, 1899, 1900, 1985, 1999, 2003, and 2008. Many of these storms rated in the top 25 heaviest snowstorms including:

Detroit in 1900 received 16.1 inches of snow for 3rd heaviest snowstorm
Detroit 1895 12.3 10th
Detroit 1899 11.4 15th

Flint 1999 9.1 14th

Saginaw 1985 12.0 16th


Oh and I posted a blog on the upcoming winter storm. Good night everyone.
829. BtnTx
Quoting SPLbeater:


Heavier precip shown for central NC in that newest run. Unfortunate for me, I dont have much confidence in the NAM at all....never have. Sorta like I never cared for Jason Aldean, but dont know why. Lol.
welcome back!
Just released today. Climate change is real.



Full report(pdf)

Key facts:

1. The Australian summer over 2012 and 2013 has been defined by extreme weather events across much of the continent, including record-breaking heat, severe bushfires, extreme rainfall and damaging flooding. Extreme heatwaves and catastrophic bushfire conditions during the Angry Summer were made worse by climate change.

2. All weather, including extreme weather events is influenced by climate change. All extreme weather events are now occurring in a climate system that is warmer and moister than it was 50 years ago. This influences the nature, impact and intensity of extreme weather events.

3. Australia’s Angry Summer shows that climate change is already adversely affecting Australians. The significant impacts of extreme weather on people, property, communities and the environment highlight the serious consequences of failing to adequately address climate change.

4. It is highly likely that extreme hot weather will become even more frequent and severe in Australia and around the globe, over the coming decades. The decisions we make this decade will largely determine the severity of climate change and its influence on extreme events for our grandchildren.

5. It is critical that we are aware of the influence of climate change on many types of extreme weather so that communities, emergency services and governments prepare for the risk of increasingly severe and frequent extreme weather.













Click each for larger image.
831. BtnTx
Quoting Levi32:


My models are down at the moment due to my server admin, and have been for over a week. I apologize for not getting a notice up on the page. I've been too busy to properly deal with the problem. My current server is getting annoying. I might upgrade soon, which would hopefully fix the script downtime.
we will stand by Levi
832. BtnTx
Quoting AussieStorm:
Just released today. Climate change is real.



Full report(pdf)

Key facts:

1. The Australian summer over 2012 and 2013 has been defined by extreme weather events across much of the continent, including record-breaking heat, severe bushfires, extreme rainfall and damaging flooding. Extreme heatwaves and catastrophic bushfire conditions during the Angry Summer were made worse by climate change.

2. All weather, including extreme weather events is influenced by climate change. All extreme weather events are now occurring in a climate system that is warmer and moister than it was 50 years ago. This influences the nature, impact and intensity of extreme weather events.

3. Australia’s Angry Summer shows that climate change is already adversely affecting Australians. The significant impacts of extreme weather on people, property, communities and the environment highlight the serious consequences of failing to adequately address climate change.

4. It is highly likely that extreme hot weather will become even more frequent and severe in Australia and around the globe, over the coming decades. The decisions we make this decade will largely determine the severity of climate change and its influence on extreme events for our grandchildren.

5. It is critical that we are aware of the influence of climate change on many types of extreme weather so that communities, emergency services and governments prepare for the risk of increasingly severe and frequent extreme weather.













Click each for larger image.
Thanks Aussie - my laptop just melted!
833. flsky
38 degrees in Ponce Inlet, FL. Brrrrrr!!!!!!! I can't stand much more of this. S'posed to be mid-70s or so next week. Hurry!!!
Fire season is on...Here in Brevard County a women I've known some time lost her house, barn & pregnant mare to fire today. The whipping winds & red flag conditions were detrimental. 10 houses were lost in in Ocala Forest. Wildfire evacuations in Volusia have ended but the fire burns on.
Quoting BtnTx:
Thanks Aussie - my laptop just melted!

oh, was it too hot for ya. lol
***Corrected***

Everyone say hello to Tropical Cyclone Sandra (not Tim), Next name on the BOM

ECMWF 120hrs....


144hrs...


240hrs...
Quoting AussieStorm:
Everyone say hello to Tropical Cyclone Tim, Next name on the BOM

ECMWF 120hrs....


144hrs...


240hrs...


Bureau of Meteorology going to skip Sandra because of what Sandy did in the Atlantic?
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


Bureau of Meteorology going to skip Sandra because of what Sandy did in the Atlantic?

Thanks for pointing that out. I have corrected my mistake.
Good Morning Folks! the Blogs coffee is perked for when you get here..have a great day everyone!
warm gulf waters saved me from a freeze............
thats it for the Freezing temps once the sun comes up..
another front comes but not as cold this time..
Quoting LargoFl:
warm gulf waters saved me from a freeze............
I'm holding steady at 33°
Good morning to all,evening Aussie. A wet pattern will start today in PR and adjacent islands and last thru most of the week.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
446 AM AST MON MAR 4 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...NOW LOCATED ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
LATE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES TO MOVE
EASTWARD WHILE WEAKENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MONA
PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND STALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
AND PROBABLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND WILL PASS TO
THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE
IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT...NOW LOCATED EAST OF BERMUDA
SOUTHWEST TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THAT WILL REACH THE LOCAL
ISLANDS LATE TODAY AND STALL OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AS A RESULT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
REACH PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TO ENHANCE SHOWER
ACTIVITY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME FROM THE NORTH. THE
FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CENTRAL CORDILLERA. THE FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE BY MID WEEK WITH WEATHER CONDITIONS IMPROVING SOMEWHAT.
A SECOND WEAK FRONT APPROACHES ON SATURDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE AREA OVER NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY BECOMING NE AROUND 10KT
AFTER SUNSET. SCT-BKN150 CIGS TODAY BCMG BKN040 AS CDFNT APPROACHES
THE AREA AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS.

&&

.MARINE...A NORTH NORTHWEST LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL ARRIVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. WINDS WILL INCREASE
ON TUESDAY BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 81 74 / 50 70 70 20
STT 82 75 80 75 / 0 50 50 20
Good morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie. 48 degrees here this morning with a high later of around 73, along with a wind advisory all day. But we should be able to take the kids out to recess! It's a Monday and it's not raining!

Breakfast's on the sideboard: fresh fruit and yogurt.
Morning 28.2 Zephyrhills fl. Lots of frost
Quoting BahaHurican:
I note it's only 72 in Inagua right now... u may get a brush of cooler than average temps yourself...


Was cold 62 here this morning. :(
Everyone have a great Monday! Aussie, have a great Tuesday!
Chicago, Illinois was placed under a Winter Storm Warning a while ago. The city is expecting 6-9", with locally higher amounts. Residents there should be happy to get a big accumulating event.
Good morning, woke up to a chilly low of 15F. Not much has changed since last night regarding winter storm Saturn, besides the expansion of winter storm warnings and watches. I wish all the models would shift north, but that probably won't happen. Have a great Monday.
Had a low of 31 at my place here in Orlando and going up to near 90 come next Monday. What a roller coaster here lately! By the way high of 80 here tomorrow.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Chicago, Illinois was placed under a Winter Storm Warning a while ago. The city is expecting 6-9", with locally higher amounts. Residents there should be happy to get a big accumulating event.


I seriously doubt the citizens of Chicago will be happy about getting 6"-9" of snow. They're not Florida Wunderbloggers.

That said, Illinois farmers and others affected by the drought, will be glad of it.
Good Morning All..
Chilly 34 right now..
Frost all around me..


"The Sun, the Sun is a-rising,
Most Definitely".. :)



I know it's long range but the signs maybe coming into play for a wet March for FL.



This pattern may get stuck in the position for a few weeks and if this does come true then C & S FL will see much needed drought relief.

North Americas most trusted forecaster has issued a warning for Minnesota.

"
Quoting nymore:
North Americas most trusted forecaster has issued a warning for Minnesota.

"


Wow! First laugh of the day!
Despite the cold weather the last couple of days across the Gulf, the Gulf is still way above average for this time of year. This could spell trouble for this years upcoming Tornado Season.

Mid Atlantic snowfall forecast.



510 AM EST MON MAR 4 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.


* ACCUMULATIONS...MORE THAN 5 INCHES POSSIBLE...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.


* TIMING...PRECIPITATION MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SNOW
TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER AND MID 30S.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS. HEAVY WET SNOW AND
GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Wow! First laugh of the day!
He is the best. He has been featured in major newspapers, national news networks, major market tv stations, radio stations, xm sirius satellite, major internet sites. The guy just keeps getting bigger and bigger. I love him.
Quoting nymore:
He is the best. He has been featured in major newspapers, national news networks, major market tv stations, radio stations, xm sirius satellite, major internet sites. The guy just keeps getting bigger and bigger. I love him.


He is passionate that's one thing for sure.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
I know it's long range but the signs maybe coming into play for a wet March for FL.



This pattern may get stuck in the position for a few weeks and if this does come true then C & S FL will see much needed drought relief.



Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Despite the cold weather the last couple of days across the Gulf, the Gulf is still way above average for this time of year.



Good Morning StormTrackerScott,
You've made 2 good points this morning..

1)..With the changing Climate , the progression of the troughs and front will be more of a traffic jam scenario than in the past..
This will cause events to hang around longer and become excessive events..

Link

2)..Having stated the setup above, I can see where the precip. will be excessive in Florida as a viable forecasted solution..
If the GFS on something really loopy or what. It has TC Sandra combining with a stronger TC that originates north of the Solomon Islands. The 2 combine to become a monster TC. This new TC could be named either Garry by TCWC Fiji or Alu by TCWC Port Moresby depending who's area it forms in.

Sandra on the left and Alu/Garry on the right.
Good morning folks. A very chilly 39° here this morning. Never made it into the 70's this week end.
Quoting AussieStorm:
If the GFS on something really loopy or what. It has TC Sandra combining with a stronger TC that originates north of the Solomon Islands. The 2 combine to become a monster TC. This new TC could be named either Garry by TCWC Fiji or Alu by TCWC Port Moresby depending who's area it forms in.

Sandra on the left and Alu/Garry on the right.


I'd like to be the first blogger of 2013 to say 'Fujiwara effect'.
Quoting AussieStorm:
If the GFS on something really loopy or what. It has TC Sandra combining with a stronger TC that originates north of the Solomon Islands. The 2 combine to become a monster TC. This new TC could be named either Garry by TCWC Fiji or Alu by TCWC Port Moresby depending who's area it forms in.

Sandra on the left and Alu/Garry on the right.



Wouldn't surprise me really with the way weather is evolving..
This years Atlantic TC season may be alarming as well..
GFS has shifted snow band just bit more south in the 530am CDT run. I really wish this would drift a bit further south, I would love another 4". Been a rather snow less winter here, only 7" for the season.



Quoting pcola57:




Good Morning StormTrackerScott,
You've made 2 good points this morning..

1)..With the changing Climate , the progression of the troughs and front will be more of a traffic jam scenario than in the past..
This will cause events to hang around longer and become excessive events..

2)..Having stated the setup above, I can see where the precip. will be excessive in Florida as a viable forecasted solution..


Somenting to watch going forward and look the GFS has back up with other global models.

Euro


GGEM
Quoting pcola57:



Wouldn't surprise me really with the way weather is evolving..
This years Atlantic TC season may be alarming as well..


Yeah, It doesn't look good at all.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Somenting to watch going forward and look the GFS has back up with other global models.

Euro


GGEM


Thanks for that..
However the true test of the GFS will be in the Atlantic Basin TC season..
After being the outlier and verifying durning Debby of last year, it was a no show during the rest of the season..
GFS has alot to prove this year..
IMO
Quoting FtMyersgal:
Good morning folks. A very chilly 39° here this morning. Never made it into the 70's this week end.



@nwsmiami:
W. Palm Beach low 38 this AM. Coldest temp this late in season since 03/04/1942.
This year could feature our first cat. 3 hurricane to make landfall since 2005. The US could in for it this year from FL to Maine.
Quoting yonzabam:


I'd like to be the first blogger of 2013 to say 'Fujiwara effect'.

Not really a Fujiwara, more like a chomp chomp chomp effect.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:
This year could feature our first cat. 3 hurricane to make landfall since 2005. The US could in for it this year from FL to Maine.


Don't forget the GOM and home grown TC's..
After the trade winds relax, the Carribean will be primed looking ahead at forecasted SST's..
IMO
Quoting AussieStorm:



@nwsmiami:
W. Palm Beach low 38 this AM. Coldest temp this late in season since 03/04/1942.


It never fails when we have a hot Winter and yes I said hot as we have been hovering between 80 and 90 for most of January and February that we get a late freeze. I've seen this several times in my 33 year of existance.

Quoting pcola57:


Don't forget the GOM and home grown TC's..
After the trade winds relax, the Carribean will be primed looking ahead at forecast SST's..
IMO


True, but I think the concern may be a set up again like we had with Superstorm Sandy with tropical systems getting pulled back west toward New England.
Looks like washi is going to get her wish for snow.....URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
510 AM EST MON MAR 4 2013

DCZ001-MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-501-502-VAZ025> 031-036>040-042-
050>056-501>504-WVZ050>053-055-501>506-041815-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.A.0004.130305T2300Z-130307T0500Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-
FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADI SON-
RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND-
EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY -
WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK...
WESTMINSTER...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE ...ANNAPOLIS...
FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND...STAUNTON...WAYNESBORO... HARRISONBURG...
WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...CHARLOTTESVILLE...LEESBURG...
CULPEPER...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...
FALLS CHURCH...FREDERICKSBURG...WARRENTON...HIGHTOWN...M ONTEREY...
MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN...MOOREFIELD...BAYARD...MOUNT STORM...
PETERSBURG...ELK GARDEN...KEYSER...FORT ASHBY...CIRCLEVILLE...
FRANKLIN
510 AM EST MON MAR 4 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...MORE THAN 5 INCHES POSSIBLE...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

* TIMING...PRECIPITATION MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SNOW
TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER AND MID 30S.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS. HEAVY WET SNOW AND
GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

HTS
15, 80 plus degree days in January and 12 plus 80 degree days in February. Warmest I've ever seen here! This data is from Orlando International.
882. VR46L
Morning Folks!!!


Quoting pcola57:


Don't forget the GOM and home grown TC's..
After the trade winds relax, the Carribean will be primed looking ahead at forecasted SST's..
IMO


You Guys have made me look at the GOM Temps.... Its hardly ROCKET FUEL right now ... but who knows what it will be like come August







Im under a winter weather advisory.

Just hope it doesn't become a winter storm warning, I think I've had enough for this year.
Good Morning guys... Pretty chilly down there in Florida.

Later in the afternoon I'll have my snowmap for the Mid-Atlantic... I don't know why models go back and forth with snow across Southern New England
I remember growing up and we wouldn't hit 80 until February but over the last 10 to 15 years it does seem that overall our winters in FL are becoming obsolete.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Mid Atlantic snowfall forecast.


Calls for 5"+ in the watch but why <1" in that map for DC?
887. VR46L
Quoting FunnelVortex:
Im under a winter weather advisory.

Just hope it doesn't become a winter storm warning, I think I've had enough for this year.


I remember when you first came on the blog you were wishcasting for every winter storm ...LOL

I take it you have had enough!!
Going to be a hot day in south Texas today. Temps 90

Quoting VR46L:


I remember when you first came on the blog you were wishcasting for every winter storm ...LOL

I take it you have had enough!!


Yeah, and I never got the big blizzard I wanted. I guess there was just wasn't enough moisture streaming into my region this year.
Im putting DC for over 6" though whenever my map is out...
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Mid Atlantic snowfall forecast.



510 AM EST MON MAR 4 2013

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.


* ACCUMULATIONS...MORE THAN 5 INCHES POSSIBLE...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.


* TIMING...PRECIPITATION MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SNOW
TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER AND MID 30S.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* IMPACTS...DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS. HEAVY WET SNOW AND
GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS


Way underdone IMO
Freezing yesterday morning to near 60 this morning to near 80 this afternoon.

Then back down into the 30s in a few days for lows
Nice week coming up for West Palm Beach...

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Chicago, Illinois was placed under a Winter Storm Warning a while ago. The city is expecting 6-9", with locally higher amounts. Residents there should be happy to get a big accumulating event.


Nope, some residents are mad winter wont go away.....
Crying that it wont stop snowing now.
895. MahFL
Quoting yonzabam:


I seriously doubt the citizens of Chicago will be happy about getting 6"-9" of snow. They're not Florida Wunderbloggers.

That said, Illinois farmers and others affected by the drought, will be glad of it.


9 inches of snow is a light dusting for Chicago.
I see the GFS is set on boston not escaping this now....

8-12 inches for DC, and 8-20 inches for MA/CT/RI...

go GFS....verify.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Nope, some residents are mad winter wont go away.....
Crying that it wont stop snowing now.


Yup, and long range forecast keep the core of the cold air across the upper midwest as a trough sets up acrosss the Plains and just sits in place for 7 to 10 days.
Good morning everyone. I awoke to a cool crisp sunny morning here in the Keys. The temp at the top of the page says we are 59 degrees. Almost cool enough to put on socks. I saw an interesting tidbit in our local newspaper this weekend. Someone had mentioned, in the voice, that the mangoe trees are already blossoming, in fact some have fruit. Way out of season. Then someone commented a day or two later that we need to ask anyone who lived in 1935 about early fruiting mangoes and the incidence of the 1935 Hurricane. I don't know if there is a correlation or just a superstition. The Conch's always look to nature for storm predictions. We do keep a weather eye out to the south each year. We look forward to the hurricane season with a dab of anticipation and a large serving of dread. Everyone have a good day.
Strange..as some forecast are showing D.C with 1-3 inches of snow while others are showing 6-9" on snow in the city is possible.
NAM clips MA as well, but brings much less snow to DC and boston. 4" for DC and maybe 4-6 for boston but the run ends.
No surface warmth:
GFS also says cold shot for mid march:



Where is everyone?.Gorgiastormz is barely keeping the blog alive?.
GFS 00Z 5 panel Anaylisis..









NAM 00Z 5 panel Ananylsis..









We were 25 to 26 for over 6 hours last night. I'm convinced we are the coldest area in Fla. just west of Ocala. Anybody seen any colder in Fl.?
Alot of dry air presently in the Mid Atlantic and New England states right now..
Precipitable moisture may play a big part in snowfall accumulations..
Doesn't look like the storm will have a whole lot of moisture to play with at this time..
Just so you know it is really windy outside today.
I give today a 10/10 for bad hair day.lol.
Quoting pcola57:
Alot of dry air presently in the Mid Atlantic and New England states right now..
Precipitable moisture may play a big part in snowfall accumulations..
Doesn't look like the storm will have a whole lot of moisture to play with at this time..


that could lead to synoptic cooling.
But im not really sure if the dry air stays...

a noreaster should pull tons of moisture off the sea.
Quoting FunnelVortex:
Im under a winter weather advisory.

Just hope it doesn't become a winter storm warning, I think I've had enough for this year.


And 130 miles to your south, we are under a winter storm warning, expecting 9 - 12 inches wet, heavy snow. I would rather see it now, than in late March/April..... The Sandhill Cranes and Turkey Vultures that have returned are going to have a rough few days until it starts warming back up toward the end of the week.
Quoting pcola57:
Alot of dry air presently in the Mid Atlantic and New England states right now..
Precipitable moisture may play a big part in snowfall accumulations..
Doesn't look like the storm will have a whole lot of moisture to play with at this time..
Yes.I put lotion on my face and stood outsie for about 10 minutes.It felt like all the moisture was zapped from my face.The cold + wind really isn't helping wither.
Coldest I cold find in the state (Florida) from NWS @ 5am..

OCALA CLEAR 27 23 86 CALM 30.16S
TALLAHASSEE CLEAR 28 24 85 CALM 30.17S
PERRY N/A 29 25 85 CALM 30.17F
CROSS CITY N/A 28 24 85 CALM 30.17S
GAINESVILLE CLEAR 29 25 85 W5
CRYSTAL RIVER FAIR 28 27 93 CALM 30.17S
INVERNESS FAIR 28 28 100 CALM 30.17S
The GFS shows currently that the upcoming storm for the northeast will be more of a traditional occlusion rather than a warm seclusion with a core that never quite gets warm

Quoting washingtonian115:
Where is everyone?.Gorgiastormz is barely keeping the blog alive?.





they are all off at work or takeing there kids to school we have a life we all can this stay on the blog this for you we are all off doing other things in life has there is other things in life then this old blog if your looking for some one too talk too 24hrs a day 7 days a week why not you go find other blog or fourm too go on


i find it vary annyouing when you say where is evere one you no vary well this is a monday and evere one is off too work or takeing there kids too school right now or off takeing care of other things like bills
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

NAM 12z actual snow depth gradient very close to DC meaning the 0'' line isn't much further south.
Link
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

12z GFS will be out in hour for storm period. Total liquid QPF for 00z, 06z runs consistently around 2'' max for DC Link
Quoting Tazmanian:





they are all off at work or takeing there kids to school we have a life we all can this stay on the blog this for you we are all off doing other things in life has there is other things in life then this old blog if your looking for some one too talk too 24hrs a day 7 days a week why not you go find other blog or fourm too go on


i find it vary annyouing when you say where is evere one you no vary well this is a monday and evere one is off too work or takeing there kids too school right now or off takeing care of other things like bills
Calm down Taz.How is aksing "Where is everyone"? annoying.And how am I on this blog looking for someone to talk to 24 hours a day?.The only reason why I'm on here now is because a life threatning storm is coming to my area.You seriously need to chill.

You are right people DO have other things to do just as well as I do to.I have a life outside of this blog.So for you to come at me like that is very childish and immature.Stop policing the blog and find somethign else to do since you and everyone else have a life outisde the blog.

Quoting Luisport:
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue

12z GFS will be out in hour for storm period. Total liquid QPF for 00z, 06z runs consistently around 2'' max for DC Link
I'm not liking this.It's not like the temps will be in it's upper 30's to near 40's to allow slow melting.Instead they will jump and continue to rise almost hitting 60.As I mentioned before the ground is saturated already.I hope this isn't no january 1996 repeat!.
Quoting Tazmanian:





they are all off at work or takeing there kids to school we have a life we all can this stay on the blog this for you we are all off doing other things in life has there is other things in life then this old blog if your looking for some one too talk too 24hrs a day 7 days a week why not you go find other blog or fourm too go on


i find it vary annyouing when you say where is evere one you no vary well this is a monday and evere one is off too work or takeing there kids too school right now or off takeing care of other things like bills

Dude.... get a life. LOL
A brief statement on Global climate



By Kirk Mellish

It was I think 2007 that I gave my first public views on "Global warming, climate and greenhouse gases". We at WSB Radio and Neal Boortz gave it a lot of attention on the radio and in my blog here at wsbradio.com. Unfortunately, when the station migrated to new servers they did not transfer my report over. Ah, the corporate world. Anyway, that full report became some 28 pages long. Ya see the real world is more complicated than talking heads want you to think. Certainly atmospheric physics does not lend itself to bumper sticker slogans, talking points or sound bytes by politicians or talk show hosts.
I have neither the time nor resources to start over, and my job is daily weather forecasting 24/7, not climate or politics. So if you missed the full report when I posted it or my short version on the radio I am sorry. My thoughts are informed by my degree in meteorology and 37 years of reading actual published and vetted science journals.

Here is a "down and dirty" version of my thoughts, remember this is distilled from the 28 page report so it is over simplified and I leave out the hard science specifics to make it easy on the laymen.
Know this...there are scientists I know and respect with better credentials than mine, on both sides of this issue. There are some good people on both sides. This is part of the reason I keep and open mind, I think all smart people do that about everything, and the scientific method... in which I've been trained... demands it!

In view of the warm US 2012 and the recent record warm January Thaw I've been getting asked a lot about it again, so here%u2019s my SEVERELY shortened view:

First. the globe has warmed in the period referenced. And we cannot blame bad instruments or sites or many of the other excuses offered, because the evidence of warming is NOT restricted to temperature data from ground instruments or satellites. For example, data comes from corals, mountain tops, tree rings, ice cores, deep ocean cores, air chemistry, rock chemistry, deep earth cores etc. all over the globe, and notably birds, animals, plants, diseases, insects etc. planet wide, ALL have changed consistent with a warming planet.

2. This does not mean the warming has to or will continue forever or is entirely our fault.

3. The planet has warmed and cooled in the past hot periods and ice ages before industrialization and all scientists are aware of that and take it into account.

4. No there never was a scientific consensus in the 60s or 70s that the globe was cooling and the next ice age started; those were typical misleading mainstream media headlines.

5. I do not think we have all the answers with regard to the cause.

6. It could be man, or natural or both. There is an overwhelming scientific consensus that the planet is warming and anthropogenic CO2 based, but consensus does not equal guaranteed correct or certainty, and consensus in science does not mean settled.

7. There are alarmists, extremists and hucksters pushing agendas on both sides. Both sides have funding and political agendas. Yet there are plenty of good and honest people on both sides.

8. There is big money to be made OR lost by advocating both sides not just one, hence point 7 above.

9. I don't think we have enough knowledge or understanding to correctly project the long-term future of it, the amount or timing of warming or its affects/impacts on other things. Even the many IPCC reports give wide ranges on all these not absolutes.

10. Greenhouses gases are real and do warm the planet, without them the planet would be uninhabitable so UP TO A POINT they are good and necessary.

11. There are things we can and should do that will slow or reverse it, IF it is unnatural CO2 based, that are GOOD to do for other reasons/benefits EVEN if it is NOT man-made.

12. Because of the uncertainty I only support these and not more expensive and elaborate ideas proposed by some, there are risks of the law of unintended consequences.

13. And likewise because of the uncertainty and the potential threat I don't support doing nothing, wishing it away or crossing our fingers.

14. For the same reason I don't support going all in or all out to stop or reverse it, especially not unilaterally and not with risky and costly schemes like geo-engineering.

15. The efforts that are made MUST be global, the US cannot do it alone because among other reasons it would not work since the warming and CO2 is global not just U.S.

16. We've worked through difficult and complex things before and we can do so again, because this is America and we are Americans dammit.

Again, this is out of 28 pages so understand I am not even trying to cover all pro and con points here.
The moment of truth:
Is the blog dead, no one has commented for 6 minutes. Where is everyone.
.
.
.
LOL I kids
Goodnight all, Stay warm, Stay safe.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Is the blog dead, no one has commented for 6 minutes. Where is everyone.
.
.
.
LOL I kids
Goodnight all, Stay warm, Stay safe.


Night Aussie!! :-)

I know why no one is commenting...
WE ARE ALL BUSY....
LOL
The January 2011 storm is still fresh in the minds of people here.Luckily the real trouble won't begin until about 1:00 am Wenseday morning.I don't think no one is going anywhere by 8:00.lol.D.C was voted the number one place for rude/bad drivers.And if you lived here daily then you'll see why.
I like this SREF mean at IAD!

931. VR46L
Quoting WunderGirl12:
Check this out


That is actually very Cool... Thanks !!
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
I remember growing up and we wouldn't hit 80 until February but over the last 10 to 15 years it does seem that overall our winters in FL are becoming obsolete.



Not entirely? Need I remind us of our tendency to have short memories of such things. We didn't even hit 60 for weeks at one point in the winter of 2010 and had nights below freezing for near a week. The winter ended up being as cold as an average winter in Kentucky.

There have been other winters with plenty of cold air as well. This is probably the warmest winter I've seen since living here in the mid 90's.


However, climate change in the long term would tend to mean more extremes for us but overall warmer averages globally including Florida. We'll see what happens with Florida the next 30 years. This winter seems indicative of that actually. Mostly warm but then a period of very cold weather misplaced as we head into spring.


Also, I've spent my life studying Florida climate and mesoscale meteorology meteorology of Florida. Based on current expectation of climate change, I would expect Florida's dry seasons to become warmer and drier while our summers should favor an increase in hot, humid days along with more extreme rain events and overall more significant rainy seasons.

Essentially, more in the direction of a monsoon tropical climate, extremely wet periods and extremely dry periods.

Of course, I could be wrong, time will tell, but that's my take on it.


Good Morning
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
A brief statement on Global climate



By Kirk Mellish

It was I think 2007 that I gave my first public views on "Global warming, climate and greenhouse gases". We at WSB Radio and Neal Boortz gave it a lot of attention on the radio and in my blog here at wsbradio.com. Unfortunately, when the station migrated to new servers they did not transfer my report over. Ah, the corporate world. Anyway, that full report became some 28 pages long. Ya see the real world is more complicated than talking heads want you to think. Certainly atmospheric physics does not lend itself to bumper sticker slogans, talking points or sound bytes by politicians or talk show hosts.
I have neither the time nor resources to start over, and my job is daily weather forecasting 24/7, not climate or politics. So if you missed the full report when I posted it or my short version on the radio I am sorry. My thoughts are informed by my degree in meteorology and 37 years of reading actual published and vetted science journals.

Here is a "down and dirty" version of my thoughts, remember this is distilled from the 28 page report so it is over simplified and I leave out the hard science specifics to make it easy on the laymen.
Know this...there are scientists I know and respect with better credentials than mine, on both sides of this issue. There are some good people on both sides. This is part of the reason I keep and open mind, I think all smart people do that about everything, and the scientific method... in which I've been trained... demands it!

In view of the warm US 2012 and the recent record warm January Thaw I've been getting asked a lot about it again, so here%u2019s my SEVERELY shortened view:

First. the globe has warmed in the period referenced. And we cannot blame bad instruments or sites or many of the other excuses offered, because the evidence of warming is NOT restricted to temperature data from ground instruments or satellites. For example, data comes from corals, mountain tops, tree rings, ice cores, deep ocean cores, air chemistry, rock chemistry, deep earth cores etc. all over the globe, and notably birds, animals, plants, diseases, insects etc. planet wide, ALL have changed consistent with a warming planet.

2. This does not mean the warming has to or will continue forever or is entirely our fault.

3. The planet has warmed and cooled in the past hot periods and ice ages before industrialization and all scientists are aware of that and take it into account.

4. No there never was a scientific consensus in the 60s or 70s that the globe was cooling and the next ice age started; those were typical misleading mainstream media headlines.

5. I do not think we have all the answers with regard to the cause.

6. It could be man, or natural or both. There is an overwhelming scientific consensus that the planet is warming and anthropogenic CO2 based, but consensus does not equal guaranteed correct or certainty, and consensus in science does not mean settled.

7. There are alarmists, extremists and hucksters pushing agendas on both sides. Both sides have funding and political agendas. Yet there are plenty of good and honest people on both sides.

8. There is big money to be made OR lost by advocating both sides not just one, hence point 7 above.

9. I don't think we have enough knowledge or understanding to correctly project the long-term future of it, the amount or timing of warming or its affects/impacts on other things. Even the many IPCC reports give wide ranges on all these not absolutes.

10. Greenhouses gases are real and do warm the planet, without them the planet would be uninhabitable so UP TO A POINT they are good and necessary.

11. There are things we can and should do that will slow or reverse it, IF it is unnatural CO2 based, that are GOOD to do for other reasons/benefits EVEN if it is NOT man-made.

12. Because of the uncertainty I only support these and not more expensive and elaborate ideas proposed by some, there are risks of the law of unintended consequences.

13. And likewise because of the uncertainty and the potential threat I don't support doing nothing, wishing it away or crossing our fingers.

14. For the same reason I don't support going all in or all out to stop or reverse it, especially not unilaterally and not with risky and costly schemes like geo-engineering.

15. The efforts that are made MUST be global, the US cannot do it alone because among other reasons it would not work since the warming and CO2 is global not just U.S.

16. We've worked through difficult and complex things before and we can do so again, because this is America and we are Americans dammit.

Again, this is out of 28 pages so understand I am not even trying to cover all pro and con points here.
1) Good.

2) No, it doesn't. But then again, it doesn't need to; there are mountains of other evidence that do that.

3) And...?

4) Correct.

5) No one says we do. But that doesn't mean "we" know nothing.

6) Consensus in science doesn't mean "settled". But what it does mean is "the overwhelming preponderance of evidence says that the planet is warming due to man's activities. And there remains not a single viable alternative theory."

7) Possibly. But only the "alarmists, extremists and hucksters" on one side have science backing them up; the other has nothing but ideological wishful thinking.

8) The top 5 oil companies alone earn over $100 billion dollars in profit each year. That amount dwarfs any and every bit of money to be made or lost by the supporters side.

9) He's entitles to his opinion, but, again, it carries no scientific weight, and he is derinitely swimming again the tide of evidence in staking such a claim.

10) Sure. And UP TO A POINT, water is good and necessary. But that doesn't mean people don't drown in it.

11) This is a point of view shared by many.

12) He's free to support what he wishes, but even should the climate change at the low end of "uncertainty", doing only the inexpensive and easy ideas will prove futile.

13) I'll buy that.

14) Half-measures do no good.

15) Of course. But we can only control our own behaviors; avoiding doing the right thing just because others choose not to do so is a behavior most people outgrow during high school.

16) We Americans have worked through complex issues. But otehr complex and difficult issues are swept under the rug, and left to fester for decades.
Quoting pcola57:
Good Morning All..
Chilly 34 right now..
Frost all around me..


"The Sun, the Sun is a-rising,
Most Definitely".. :)





GROOVEY
GFS is still set on boston snow...even bigger than DC snow, although most snow is west of DC, they still get a ton.

We'll have to see if the ECMWF agrees.
938. MahFL
It was 31 F in Orange Park when I left the house at 5:25 am.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Nope, some residents are mad winter wont go away.....
Crying that it wont stop snowing now.

Potentially, but those residents don't live in Chicago.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Nice week coming up for West Palm Beach...



Goldilocks Temps.
941. VR46L
Quoting PedleyCA:


Goldilocks Temps.


New Blog Ped ....Maybe you want the last word...
I this going to be an active hurricane season.
What do you think this season going to be like follow my blog or go to my website Link
That last comment that I sent was for the hurricane season.