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Australia Braces for Debbie; Localized Tornado Outbreak Possible Sunday in TX/OK

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 5:17 PM GMT on March 26, 2017

Northeast Australia’s Queensland coast is bracing for the arrival of Tropical Cyclone Debbie, which intensified into a Category 1 storm with 80 mph winds on Sunday morning. Debbie is headed west-southwest at about 4 mph, and is expected to make landfall on Tuesday morning local time (Monday evening in the U.S.) The storm has quite favorable conditions for intensification, with light wind shear and warm ocean temperatures of 29 - 30°C (84 - 86°F.) However, satellite images on Sunday morning showed that Debbie had failed to take full advantage of these favorable conditions for intensification, thanks to dry air pulled off the coast of Australia that had wrapped into the core of the storm. There is still time for Debbie to undergo a period of rapid intensification before landfall, and the storm could well be at Category 3 strength by then, as predicted by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.

According to Australian hurricane expert Bruce Harper, the population of the area expected to receive the brunt of Debbie’s winds is around 15,000. The region is surrounded by flat sugar cane fields, and heavy rains from the storm will likely cause considerable agricultural damage. Debbie is a very moist storm, and a large area of torrential rain in excess of 8 inches will accompany the storm as it make landfall, according to the 06 UTC Sunday run of the HWRF model. A maximum storm surge of about 3 meters (10 feet) and storm tide (height of the surge plus the tide) of about 4 meters (13 feet) can be expected to the left of where the center makes landfall, if Debbie intensifies to Category 3 strength.


Figure 1. Tropical Cyclone Debbie, as seen on Sunday afternoon (local time) March 26, 2017. Image credit: NASA Worldview.

Tropical cyclone history of the Queensland, Australia coast
According to NOAA’s historical Hurricane Tracks tool, Queensland has been hit by nine tropical cyclones of Category 3 or higher strength on the Saffir-Simpson Scale since 1989. Four of these storms have hit since 2011:

Tropical Cyclone Marcia hit central Queensland near Shoalwater Bay as a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds on February 20, 2015, causing $590 million in damage. No fatalities were reported.

Tropical Cyclone Nathan hit far northern Queensland as a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds on March 19, 2015, causing $57 million in damage.

Tropical Cyclone Ita hit Cape Flattery, Queensland as a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds on April 12, 2014, causing over $1 billion in damage to agriculture. Ita killed 40 people in the Solomon Islands while it was forming (thanks go to WU member elioe for this correction.)

Queensland suffered a devastating blow on February 3, 2011, when Tropical Cyclone Yasi made landfall in northern Queensland as a Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds, killing 1 and causing $2.5 billion in damage (2011 dollars.) According to EM-DAT, Yasi was the most damaging tropical cyclone in Australian history.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has a nice summary of the major to storms to impact Queensland before 2011.

An early appearance of the Atlantic’s first named storm of 2017 unlikely this week
A large area of low pressure has formed a few hundred miles east of the Bahamas over waters that are near 24°C (75°F)—barely warm enough to support formation of a subtropical depression or subtropical storm. Satellite loops on Sunday morning showed that the low had little in the way of organized heavy thunderstorm activity, and with wind shear a very high 50 - 60 knots, development of this storm into a subtropical storm is unlikely. The low will head north and then northeast, passing a few hundred miles southeast of Bermuda on Tuesday. According to NOAA’s Historical Hurricane Tracks, the only March tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Atlantic was a Category 2 hurricane that passed through the Lesser Antilles on March 8, 1908.


Figure 2. At the center of a compact severe weather threat area highlighted by the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center for Sunday, March 27, as of 11:30 am CDT was a moderate risk across parts of south-central Oklahoma and far north Texas (red). “Moderate” is the second-highest of the risk ratings issued by SPC.

Localized severe weather outbreak expected on Sunday in OK/TX
A couple of intense supercells, possibly bearing tornadoes, may crop up late Sunday in south central Oklahoma, possibly extending into north central Texas. Low-level moisture was quite limited across the area late Sunday morning, with dewpoints mainly between 50°F and 55°F. However, dewpoints in the low- to mid-60s had surged from the Gulf of Mexico to just south of the Dallas-Fort Worth area. As a compact upper-level low swings into the Southern Plains, a surface low centered near the Oklahoma Panhandle on Sunday morning will quickly strengthen, with a sharp dryline and cold front extending southward.


Figure 3. A midlatitude storm wrapping up over the Southern Plains is arriving hard on the heels of another midlatitude storm now centered in northern Illinois, as shown here in a NOAA GOES-16 visible image from 10:52 am CDT Sunday, March 27, 2017. The short distance between these systems has made it difficult for moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to return in time for today’s potential severe weather in OK/TX. Data from GOES-16 are preliminary, undergoing testing, and have not yet been declared operational. Image credit: College of DuPage.


Moisture streaming northward from the Gulf is not quite as deep as it can be this time of year, but it appears richer than it did with Friday’s limited severe weather. If deep moisture does make its way as far north as the corridor between DFW and Oklahoma City, conditions there will be quite favorable for tornadic storms, with substantial instability (perhaps up to 2000 joules per kilogram of CAPE) and ample wind shear (winds will be veering as well as strengthening with height). Although low-level wind shear will not be exceptionally strong, the distinct veering (turning of winds with height) should help lead to well-structured supercells. I wouldn’t expect a widespread tornado outbreak, but the situation definitely bears watching in and near the Interstate 35 corridor between DFW and OKC, especially between about 4:00 and 9:00 pm CDT Sunday.

The NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center raised the risk level in this area from enhanced to moderate early Sunday morning, highlighting the chance of tornadoes, significant large hail (larger than 2” in diameter) and very high wind (gusts of at least 74 mph). Short-range computer models indicate that the storms may congeal into a squall line on Sunday from eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas. Thunderstorms should be somewhat less severe but more widespread across northern Oklahoma and much of Kansas.

We’ll be back on Monday with an update on Debbie and on more possibilities of U.S. severe weather in the upcoming week.

Jeff Masters (tropical) and Bob Henson (severe)


Figure 4. Dewpoint changes between 8:00 and 11:00 am CDT Sunday, March 26, 2017 (increases in green, decreases in tan) atop surface winds at 11:00 am. Dewpoints increased more than 12°F in three hours across parts of north Texas as a surge of moisture arrived from the Gulf of Mexico. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center.

Hurricane Tornado Severe Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks you guys.
Thanks for the Updates, Gentlemen....
Thank you gentlemen. We have our eyes to the sky and our heads down (hopefully the second part won't be necessary).
Hanging in here the best and as long as I can friends... Been a long (and close call)...Back for just a bit...I see my friend Pedley...
" Tropical Cyclone Ita hit Cape Flattery, Queensland as a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds on April 12, 2014, killing 40 and causing $1.2 billion in damage. More than $1 billion of the damage was to agriculture. "

All those deaths occurred in Solomon Islands, while Ita was forming. No deaths in Australia.
Debbie:

Source
To R.I. or not to R.I., that is the question...
Quoting 6. 999Ai2016:

Debbie:


To R.I. or not to R.I., that is the question...


Looks as if it has overcome that "dry air" issue.
Quoting 4. PalmBeachWeather:

Hanging in here the best and as long as I can friends... Been a long (and close call)...Back for just a bit...I see my friend Pedley...

good too see ya PBW
repost for new entry

13P/D/CYC/C2
TXPS29 KNES 261158
TCSWSP

A. 13P (DEBBIE)

B. 26/1130Z

C. 18.5S

D. 151.0E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T3.5/3.5/S0.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/WINDSAT

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS .95 ON LOG10 SPIRAL FOR A DT OF
3.5. MET=4.0 AND PT=3.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

26/0840Z 18.4S 151.0E WINDSAT


...KIM
Quoting 5. elioe:

" Tropical Cyclone Ita hit Cape Flattery, Queensland as a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds on April 12, 2014, killing 40 and causing $1.2 billion in damage. More than $1 billion of the damage was to agriculture. "

All those deaths occurred in Solomon Islands, while Ita was forming. No deaths in Australia.


Thanks for the correction! I modified the post to say:

Ita killed 40 people in the Solomon Islands while it was forming (thanks go to WU member elioe for this correction.)

Jeff Masters
Drought, Weather Fuel Record Oklahoma Wildfires

Why does KS always get dissed? They were affected as well.



Drought Creeps Into Key Grain Production Areas

Yes, even though there is the threat of severe weather associated with today and the upcoming week's storms, we in OK are looking forward to the good soaking that will result. Winter wheat has been struggling due to the dryness, and this will greatly help the farmers in KS and OK.
The single fatality caused by Cyclone Yasi was a person who put a generator in his bedroom and started it up resulting in his death, while it was his fault the fatality is attributed to the Cyclone.
Quoting 13. daddyjames:

Drought, Weather Fuel Record Oklahoma Wildfires

Why does KS always get dissed? They were affected as well.



Drought Creeps Into Key Grain Production Areas

Yes, even though there is the threat of severe weather associated with today and the upcoming week's storms, we in OK are looking forward to the good soaking that will result. Winter wheat has been struggling due to the dryness, and this will greatly help the farmers in KS and OK.


That is really nasty looking...


Mesoscale Discussion 0333
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Areas affected...Central OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 261824Z - 261930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated hail is possible across central OK through early
afternoon. A more robust severe threat is anticipated later this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar and satellite trends have shown an
increase in elevated convection over the last hour. This activity
initiated near the leading edge of the increasing low to mid-level
moisture (depicted well by the mesoanalysis at 850 mb) and appears
to be rooted somewhere between 700 and 800 mb. Gradually increasing
mid-level flow coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates will likely
result in some modest organization of these storms, which could
result in isolated instances of severe hail. However, these storms
will move northeastward into a less favorable thermodynamic
environment, suggesting strongest updrafts may not persist beyond
the next hour or two. A more robust, surface-based threat is
expected during the late afternoon farther southwest near the I-44
and I-35 corridors.

..Mosier/Guyer.. 03/26/2017


ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON 35049754 35639820 35939841 36189812 36229743 35779658
35159635 34739650 34479726 35049754


Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
126 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017

OKC027-087-109-261900-
/O.CON.KOUN.SV.W.0026.000000T0000Z-170326T1900Z/
Oklahoma OK-Cleveland OK-McClain OK-
126 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHERN CLEVELAND AND NORTHWESTERN
MCCLAIN COUNTIES...

At 125 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over western Norman,
or 5 miles north of Goldsby, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. at 121 PM... half dollar size
hail was reported in southern Newcastle.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to
roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Southeastern Oklahoma City, Norman, Moore, Midwest City, Newcastle,
Choctaw, Harrah, Jones, Nicoma Park, Goldsby, Stella, Tinker Air
Force Base, Stanley Draper Lake, Newalla and northwestern Lake
Thunderbird.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3515 9756 3523 9764 3568 9714 3531 9714
TIME...MOT...LOC 1825Z 226DEG 42KT 3522 9750

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
Thanks for the update! Hopefully there won't be many, if any, tornadoes later today, but the set up does look more favourable than the last few days.

Lots more severe weather to come over the next week or so. The rains it'll bring should be beneficial though:


Quoting 3. daddyjames:

Thank you gentlemen. We have our eyes to the sky and our heads down (hopefully the second part won't be necessary).

Many years ago, I took an evening Meteorology class from a man who worked as a meteorologist at White Sands Missile Range. He recalled growing up in the panhandle country, saying you could tell the experienced hailstone collectors from the newbies - the seasoned ones would head out into the storm under an inverted plastic garbage can, while the "virgins" would use a metal one...
INVEST 90L is up:

AL, 90, 2017032618, , BEST, 0, 235N, 690W, 35, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 150, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 180, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST

ATCF

INVEST 90L
Quoting 20. Tropicsweatherpr:

INVEST 90L is up:

AL, 90, 2017032618, , BEST, 0, 235N, 690W, 35, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 150, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 180, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST

ATCF


1st invest of the season
Quoting 21. thetwilightzone:



1st invest of the season


I saw it first. I just didn't post it :):)
Quoting 22. Grothar:



I saw it first. I just didn't post it :):)


am going too give you a $1,000,00 ticket it for saying that i saw it 1st not you lol
Quoting 20. Tropicsweatherpr:

INVEST 90L is up:

AL, 90, 2017032618, , BEST, 0, 235N, 690W, 35, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 150, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 180, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST

ATCF

INVEST 90L


rainy evening with rising temps inbound for this evening and overnight

2017 Storms
All
Active
Year

Atlantic
90L.INVEST



Mesoscale Discussion 0335
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0249 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Areas affected...Central/Northeast OK...North-Central TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 261949Z - 262115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards,
including tornadoes and very large hail, are expected across
portions of central OK and north-central TX this afternoon and
evening. A tornado watch will likely be needed by 21Z.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis shows a low centered just
northwest of GAG with a dryline arcing southeastward to just west of
CSM and then southwestward through FDR (in southwest OK) and ABI (in
the low rolling plains of TX). A warm front also extends from this
low eastward/southeastward from GAG to END to CUH and on into
southeast OK. Low-level moisture continues to advect northward in
the warm sector between the dryline and warm front, with 60 degree F
dewpoints as far north as Love, Carter, and Marshall counties in far
south-central OK. Mid-50 degree F dewpoints extend as far north as
Caddo, Grady, and McClain counties. Given the filtered sun across
the region, some modest mixing is possible but dewpoints are still
expected to range from the mid-50s to low 60s from central OK
southward into north-central TX. This low-level moisture coupled
with steep mid-level lapse rates will result in moderate instability
(i.e. MLCAPE from 1500 to 2000 J/kg) by 21Z ahead of the approaching
dryline.

Visible satellite imagery continues to show agitated cumulus beneath
the mid/high-level cloud band with some towering cumulus also noted
near the western edge of the cloud band, close to current position
of the dryline. The western edge of the cloud band also likely
represents the leading edge of strong forcing for ascent associated
with the approaching shortwave trough. As such, the current thinking
is that convective initiation will occur as the dryline and stronger
forcing for ascent interacts with the destabilizing airmass across
central OK around 21Z. Favorable kinematic profiles characterized by
0-6 km bulk shear near 50 kt will support quick storm organization,
resulting in supercells capable of all severe hazards including
tornadoes. Additionally, low-level jet increase around 00Z will
lengthen hodographs in the presence of ongoing storms, resulting in
a locally higher threat for tornadoes from south-central OK into
northern portions of north-central TX.

Somewhat different scenario will lead to the chance of a few
tornadoes farther north within the marginally moist environment
across north-central OK and possibly into far south-central KS.
Here, some severe threat, including tornadoes, is possible as storms
interact with the warm front draped across the region.

..Mosier/Guyer.. 03/26/2017
Just awaiting the official STWO.
90L/INV/XX/XX


At 1800 UTC, 26 March 2017, LOW INVEST (AL90) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 23.5N and 69W. The current intensity was 35 kt and the center was moving at 9 kt at a bearing of 355 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb.
13P/CYC/D/C2


TXPS29 KNES 261757
TCSWSP

A. 13P (DEBBIE)

B. 26/1730Z

C. 18.7S

D. 150.8E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS 1.0 ON LOG10 SPIRAL FOR A DT OF 4.0. ADDED
0.5 FOR WHITE BANDING. MET=4.0 AND PT=4.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIM
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL902017 03/26/17 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) LGEM 35 35 33 31 28 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP
LAT (DEG N) 23.5 24.4 25.2 25.9 26.6 28.0 29.1 29.7 30.3 31.5 34.0 38.8 47.4
LONG(DEG W) 69.0 69.1 68.8 68.4 67.7 65.9 63.4 60.2 56.6 52.1 47.2 41.8 38.1
STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 9 10 11 13 14 19 22 27 40 46



sun rising just to the northeast of intensifying cyclone debby
WITH WARM AND COLD FRONTS ATTACHED TO OUR INVEST
IT WILL LIKELY BE NOTHING FULLY TROPICAL BUT EXTROP/SUBTROP MORE THAN LIKELY

I was wondering something here. When was the last time that South Florida received a moderate risk of Severe Weather (not counting Wilma and not counting the late January 2017 tornado outbreak)?
HurricaneTracker App‏ @hurrtrackerapp 2m
Storm names #Otto & #Matthew were retired by the NHC due to widespread damage and significant loss of life.
Quoting 31. Andrebrooks:

Just awaiting the official STWO.
if they do mention it likely at 5 pm
Quoting 38. DeepSouthUS:

I was wondering something here. When was the last time that South Florida received a moderate risk of Severe Weather (not counting Wilma and not counting the late January 2017 tornado outbreak)?


January 2017

But there is this out today.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
334 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172 >174-GMZ656-657-676-
271200-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
334 PM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON THE ATLANTIC BEACHES...
...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE GULF COAST THROUGH EVENING...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Rip currents: There is a high risk of Rip Currents for the Atlantic
beaches today.

Thunderstorms: An isolated thunderstorm or two is possible across
portions of the Gulf Coast and interior through the early evening
hours. Lightning is the primary threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A Moderate Risk of Rip Currents could persist along the Atlantic
beaches early in the week. Otherwise, no other hazardous weather is
expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

$$

Quoting 37. Grothar:




Is this 2017's first naked swirl?
Quoting 30. daddyjames:


...Somewhat different scenario will lead to the chance of a few
tornadoes farther north within the marginally moist environment
across north-central OK and possibly into far south-central KS.
Here, some severe threat, including tornadoes, is possible as storms
interact with the warm front draped across the region.

..Mosier/Guyer.. 03/26/2017



They tagged that on there just for you, dj.
Quoting 43. beell:



They tagged that on there just for you, dj.


Ya know, they really don't have to go out of their way to make me feel included.

'Bout to really jinx myself by saying, "Oh, I really don't think there is anything to worry about".
That should definitely do it.
Quoting 42. SunnyDaysFla:



Is this 2017's first naked swirl?
maybe 67 days early too
Rare occurance in Puerto Rico but a small tornado touched down just SE of San Juan causing some damage but nobody was hurt.





SEL6

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 86
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
400 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Oklahoma
North-central Texas

* Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until
1100 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
inches in diameter likely
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Multiple corridors of supercell thunderstorms are expected
to develop and increase through the late afternoon and early evening
hours. Potentially very large hail will be the most common hazard,
but a tornado risk is also likely to increase by early evening as
low-level moisture continues to increase. The greatest overall
severe and tornado risk is expected across south-central/southeast
Oklahoma and north-central Texas.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles
east and west of a line from 35 miles west northwest of Ponca City
OK to 15 miles southeast of Dallas TX. For a complete depiction of
the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 85...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 23035.

...Guyer


My comment: Honestly, more concerned about the hail than anything else.

Wanted to make sure noone misinterpreted that as being the comment of Guyer
Quoting 38. DeepSouthUS:

I was wondering something here. When was the last time that South Florida received a moderate risk of Severe Weather (not counting Wilma and not counting the late January 2017 tornado outbreak)?


Matthew? Last bit of excitment in SEFL I recall.
fxus64 kfwd 262036
afdfwd

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth Texas
336 PM CDT sun Mar 26 2017

Mesoscale update...
we continue to monitor the potential for severe storms with all
types of severe weather threats late this afternoon through
tonight. While very large hail is expected to be the primary
threat, a threat for damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and isolated
flash flooding will also exist. The main areas of concern
continue to be roughly along and north of I-20, but locations
south of I-20 are not out of the woods; coverage is just expected
to be more limited in these areas.

A vigorous shortwave traversing the Southern Plains has pulled
Gulf moisture northward across north and central Texas today. This
shallow moist layer is east of a dryline which continues to
sharpen through far western OK, draped southward toward Abilene.
Vigorous boundary layer mixing is eroding this thin layer of
moisture which is only around 1 kft deep per the special 20z forward
sounding, and surface dewpoints have decreased by a few degrees
since 1pm. A plume of cirrus associated with the shortwave trough
has inhibited daytime heating in areas north of I-20 and west of
I-35, but some insolation combined with warm advection has still
allowed temperatures to climb into the mid 80s. Despite the
fairly low dewpoints, surface-based destabilization is still
occurring and cape values are climbing into the 1000-2000 j/kg
range through the I-35 corridor and westward. However, due to the
shallow nature of the moisture, MLCAPES are holding around 500
j/kg due to the drier low-levels.

Convective initiation is expected between 4-6pm across our
northwestern counties near the Bowie, Decatur, Jacksboro areas and
possibly as far south as Mineral Wells. Storms will quickly
intensify and maintain rotating updrafts given favorable shear and
hodograph parameters. A 500mb jet of 50-60 kts is positioned on
the southeastern periphery of the shortwave trough resulting in
deep-layer shear sufficient for supercellular storm modes, and
storms will take on supercell characteristics shortly after
initiation. Steep lapse rates around 7.5 c/km are already in place
and are forecast to steepen further as dynamic ascent from the
shortwave trough cools the mid-levels. As additional low-level
moisture continues to advect northward, MLCAPES should increase
and wet bulb zero heights will fall. Semi-discrete supercells in
this environment will be capable of producing very large hail in
excess of golfball to baseball size.

The tornado threat with initial convection will actually be fairly
low (but nonzero) due to the meager moisture quality. Local heights
will remain around 4-5 kft and the dry low-levels will
considerably limit the tornado potential through the late
afternoon hours when the planetary boundary layer is the deepest and the moisture is
highly mixed. However, the tornado potential could change
depending on how the initial convection evolves throughout the
evening. As mixing lessens after peak heating hours, moisture
quality will increase through the planetary boundary layer and local heights will lower.
In addition, the low-level jet currently around 30 kts will
increase to 40+ kts after 9pm. As cells move east towards the
Sherman, Bonham, McKinney, Greenville areas, the tornado potential
(albeit still low) may increase due to these factors. Despite
this time frame being after sunset, the lack of solar heating is
not expected to diminish the tornado potential, at least
initially. Cells may begin growing upscale into a cluster with
embedded supercell structures by this time with a broken line of
severe storms possibly ranging from the Paris area southwestward
towards the dfw metroplex.

Stay up to date with the latest forecast information this evening
which will continue to be highlighted via graphics and
supplemental mesoscale discussions as necessary.

-Stalley
Quoting 42. SunnyDaysFla:



Is this 2017's first naked swirl?


So it seems... 70.8W & 24.2N... there is a swirl racing to the west as it rotates around the larger circulation center. Doesn't show up well in IR, definitely low-level. If that swirl can rotate all the way to the southern side of the system, perhaps it can help initiate such convection, that is able to cover all the sides of the system in an organized fashion?

Quoting 19. oldnewmex:


Many years ago, I took an evening Meteorology class from a man who worked as a meteorologist at White Sands Missile Range. He recalled growing up in the panhandle country, saying you could tell the experienced hailstone collectors from the newbies - the seasoned ones would head out into the storm under an inverted plastic garbage can, while the "virgins" would use a metal one...


I would be the one with a regular umbrella, and a baseball cap on.
Quoting 51. Lurkindanger:



Matthew? Last bit of excitment in SEFL I recall.


That was a slight risk if I am correct.
looks like fast movers what ever comes

Quoting 55. isothunder67:



That was a slight risk if I am correct.


Nope not even, it was a marginal.
Quoting 38. DeepSouthUS:

I was wondering something here. When was the last time that South Florida received a moderate risk of Severe Weather (not counting Wilma and not counting the late January 2017 tornado outbreak)?


The January 2017 event was the first time that any part of South Florida was ever included in High Risk of Severe Weather. As far as determining Moderate Risk, I don't know of an easily (and I use easily) accessible database to determine what you asked.

Having said that, someone here will prolly be able to dig up something up.
13P/CYC/D/C2


seems it is nearing cat 3 now I figure
Oklahoma checklist for Severe Weather:

Hail size calibrators - Check.



Hat for protection - Check.
Jim Edds:
@ExtremeStorms

Air Nuigini is going to fly right over #CycloneDebbie Didn't they get the memo?@EarthUncutTV



oh yeah, Air Niugini found something they didn't like in that intense part of #CycloneDebbie Go around, the Force is strong with this one.


Debbie:

Quoting 61. Xandra:

Jim Edds:
@ExtremeStorms

Air Nuigini is going to fly right over #CycloneDebbie Didn't they get the memo?@EarthUncutTV


LOL check out the follow up to what you just posted.
Today event may end up being a bust other then may be large hail things are really not there today I think Tuesday event we'll be better
Quoting 63. daddyjames:


LOL check out the follow up to what you just posted.

LOL

Jim Edds‏:
@ExtremeStorms

Watching the vertical speed jump all over the place on Air Niugini flying over #CycloneDebbie Next up is Air China #barfbag



My guess is Air Niugini will radio back to China Easter with a turbulence report. How can you not have turbulence #CycloneDebbie core?



Here comes CES715 [Air China]: Flightradar24

San Juan NWS confirms the small Tornado.

Weather Summary for Puerto Rico
National Weather Service San Juan PR
618 PM AST Sun Mar 26 2017

Isolated to locally scattered showers were observed over and north
of the Cordillera Central this afternoon. . Winds were
west southwest at 10 mph with some sea breeze variation .Even a brief tornado
was also reported in Villa Andalucia, Trujillo Alto.
making the push too major status now

13P/CYC/D/C2
TORNADO WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 552 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017
TORNADO WARNING WILMINGTON OH - KILN 648 PM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017
485
WFUS54 KOUN 262252
TOROUN
OKC049-087-262315-
/O.NEW.KOUN.TO.W.0001.170326T2252Z-170326T2315Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
552 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL GARVIN COUNTY IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHEASTERN MCCLAIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 615 PM CDT

* AT 552 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BYARS, MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BYARS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A STORM SHELTER, SAFE ROOM OR AN INTERIOR
ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU
ARE OUTDOORS, IN A MOBILE HOME, OR IN A VEHICLE, MOVE TO THE CLOSEST
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.



LAT...LON 3485 9695 3480 9719 3484 9724 3492 9706
3492 9705 3491 9701 3493 9697 3495 9696
3496 9694
TIME...MOT...LOC 2252Z 238DEG 29KT 3485 9714

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.75IN



..SPEG.
419
WFUS51 KILN 262248
TORILN
OHC023-057-097-262315-
/O.NEW.KILN.TO.W.0007.170326T2248Z-170326T2315Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
648 PM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN CLARK COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO...
EAST CENTRAL GREENE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO...
SOUTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTY IN CENTRAL OHIO...

* UNTIL 715 PM EDT.

* AT 648 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTH CHARLESTON, MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LONDON, WEST JEFFERSON, SOUTH CHARLESTON, CHOCTAW LAKE, LISBON,
BRIGHTON, LAFAYETTE, SOUTH SOLON, NEWPORT, INTERSTATE 70 AT US
ROUTE 42, STATE ROUTE 29 AT STATE ROUTE 38, SELMA, INTERSTATE 70 AT
STATE ROUTE 56, GLADSTONE, MADISON LAKE, PLATTSBURG AND BIG PLAIN.

THIS INCLUDES I-70 IN OHIO BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 71 AND 81.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS, IN A
MOBILE HOME, OR IN A VEHICLE, MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER
AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER, GO TO OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/ILN AND
SUBMIT YOUR REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA, WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.



LAT...LON 4002 8336 3978 8326 3971 8368 3985 8375
TIME...MOT...LOC 2248Z 252DEG 24KT 3979 8363

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...0.00IN



NOVAK
sorry if this has already been posted, I didn't see it go by...

Dahr Jamail | Release of Arctic Methane "May Be Apocalyptic," Study Warns


Mesoscale Discussion 0336
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0513 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern Oklahoma and north central
Texas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 86...

Valid 262213Z - 262345Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 86 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential will continue to increase
across parts of north central Texas into south central Oklahoma
through the 7-9 pm CDT time frame.

DISCUSSION...Discrete storm development is now underway across parts
of south central Oklahoma into north central Texas, where low-level
convergence has become locally enhanced near a pre-cold frontal
confluence zone in the vicinity of the dryline. Further
intensification is likely during the next few hours within a
strongly sheared environment characterized by at least modest
instability.

Even within a narrow corridor of relatively higher moisture content
ahead of the dry line, moisture remains somewhat marginal for
intense convective development. However, thermal profiles are
relatively cool at mid-levels with generally steep lapse rates that
appear quite favorable for severe hail in strongest storms.

A zone of enhanced mid-level forcing for associated associated with
a short wave impulse pivoting east of the south central high Plains
may augment storm development and perhaps support
consolidation/upscale growth of initially discrete storms into an
evolving line as early as the 00-02Z time frame. As this occurs
potentially damaging wind gusts may become a more prominent threat.


Until then, large hail appears the primary severe threat. The
extent of the tornadic potential remains a bit more unclear, but the
leading edge of a corridor of better low-level moisture return that
now appears to be spreading across the Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex
may contribute to more favorable boundary layer conditions as it
gradually continues to advect northward into the Red River vicinity
through early evening.

..Kerr.. 03/26/2017

Quoting 60. daddyjames:

Oklahoma checklist for Severe Weather:

Hail size calibrators - Check.



Hat for protection - Check.



Where is the Grapefruit?
Quoting 64. thetwilightzone:

Today event may end up being a bust other then may be large hail things are really not there today I think Tuesday event we'll be better


Well, I for one am rooting for the bust, but since this is supposed to go until 11pm, not counting on it. Hail also is an issue, especially if you have crops in the field.
Quoting 75. georgevandenberghe:



Where is the Grapefruit?


We don't get Citrus this time of year here ;)
Plus, if its that big, it might irreparably damage the hat.

Hail core within a storm that just passed through Harrah and Choctow, OK is 14 miles long. Ranging in size from golf ball to tennis ball in size.

421
WUUS54 KOUN 262319
SVROUN
OKC081-083-109-270000-
/O.NEW.KOUN.SV.W.0034.170326T2319Z-170327T0000Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
619 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN OKLAHOMA COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
WESTERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHEASTERN LOGAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT

* AT 618 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HARRAH,
MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES. EXPECT
WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOUTHEASTERN EDMOND, CHANDLER, CHOCTAW, HARRAH, JONES, NICOMA PARK,
LUTHER, WELLSTON, CARNEY, ARCADIA, WARWICK, KENDRICK AND FALLIS.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 142 AND 171.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.



LAT...LON 3546 9708 3546 9714 3543 9714 3541 9726
3550 9733 3583 9730 3587 9699 3578 9676
TIME...MOT...LOC 2318Z 189DEG 24KT 3554 9719

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
700
WFUS51 KILN 262313
TORILN
OHC049-097-262345-
/O.NEW.KILN.TO.W.0008.170326T2313Z-170326T2345Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
713 PM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OHIO...
NORTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTY IN CENTRAL OHIO...

* UNTIL 745 PM EDT.

* AT 712 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LONDON, MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COLUMBUS, DUBLIN, GROVE CITY, UPPER ARLINGTON, HILLIARD, LONDON,
JEFFERSON, WEST JEFFERSON, CHOCTAW LAKE, LAKE DARBY, GRANDVIEW
HEIGHTS, OBETZ, URBANCREST, VALLEYVIEW, MARBLE CLIFF, LAFAYETTE,
GEORGESVILLE, MADISON LAKE, DARBYDALE AND INTERSTATE 70 AT US ROUTE
42.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...
I-70 IN OHIO BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 74 AND 99.
I-71 IN OHIO BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 98 AND 107.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS, IN A
MOBILE HOME, OR IN A VEHICLE, MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER
AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER, GO TO OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/ILN AND
SUBMIT YOUR REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA, WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.



LAT...LON 3979 8342 3997 8350 4013 8308 3986 8296
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 254DEG 28KT 3983 8339

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...0.00IN



NOVAK
Late night hello from Germany and best wishes esp. to Australia!

North Queensland residents refuse to leave their home as 'Cyclone Debbie' bears down
By nine.com.au staff, 9:46am March 27, 2017
Stoic residents in far North Queensland are refusing to abandon their homes and evacuate as one of the most menacing tropical cyclones bears down on the region.
Thousands of people have already been evacuated to safe areas as they await the arrival of 'Cyclone Debbie', which is forecast to be the worst since Cyclone Yasi six years ago. ...


--------------------------------

Meanwhile gorgeous spring weather in Germany. Below a pic I took this afternoon from the confluence of Main and Rhine River. Have a good night, everybody!


Click to enlarge.


Mesoscale Discussion 0337
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0633 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Areas affected...Northwest Oklahoma and South-central Kansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 85...86...

Valid 262333Z - 270100Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 85, 86 continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop and intensify this
evening. These thunderstorms will move east with large hail,
damaging winds, and a tornado or two possible.

DISCUSSION...23Z surface analysis has a surface low taking shape
across northwest Oklahoma with a dryline extending south from the
low and a warm front extending east-northeast. Thunderstorms
developed on the cool side of the warm front across south-central
Kansas and this complex should continue east along/near the front
for the next several hours. Given steep mid-level lapse rates and
most-unstable CAPE values on the order of 500-1000 J/kg ahead of
these thunderstorms, large hail and isolated damaging thunderstorm
wind gusts should be the primary threat.

Farther south, in Oklahoma, recent satellite imagery suggests a zone
of stronger ascent is approaching the triple point from the west. An
isolated thunderstorm has managed to develop back in the drier
airmass. As this zone of stronger ascent begins to overspread the
triple point and tap into a more unstable airmass, surface-based or
near-surface-based thunderstorms should develop and move east during
the evening hours. Given most-unstable CAPE values around 1000 J/kg
and deep-layer shear on the order of 50 knots, large hail and
damaging thunderstorm winds will be the primary threats across
northern Oklahoma. Although surface-based CAPE is limited (~500
J/kg), if a thunderstorm can become established and tap into the
vorticity reservoir along the surface warm front, a tornado would be
possible.

..Marsh.. 03/26/2017
200
WFUS51 KILN 262352
TORILN
OHC041-049-270015-
/O.NEW.KILN.TO.W.0009.170326T2352Z-170327T0015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
752 PM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OHIO...
SOUTHEASTERN DELAWARE COUNTY IN CENTRAL OHIO...

* UNTIL 815 PM EDT.

* AT 752 PM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED OVER UPPER ARLINGTON, MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COLUMBUS, WESTERVILLE, UPPER ARLINGTON, GAHANNA, WORTHINGTON,
MINERVA PARK, EASTON, POLARIS, NEW ALBANY, RIVERLEA, CLINTONVILLE,
HUBER RIDGE AND CENTER VILLAGE.

THIS INCLUDES I-71 IN OHIO BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 112 AND 121.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS, IN A
MOBILE HOME, OR IN A VEHICLE, MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER
AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER, GO TO OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV/ILN AND
SUBMIT YOUR REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA, WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.



LAT...LON 4014 8276 4003 8277 4000 8303 4009 8310
4024 8276
TIME...MOT...LOC 2352Z 253DEG 24KT 4005 8304

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN



NOVAK

If you are anywhere in the Wilmington, Ohio NWS region - take heed. This is the third Tornado Warning that has been issued in your area.
can we talk about 90L sense it might be the last storm we can track before the blog goes bye bye
Tropical Cyclone Debbie: Thousands evacuated as residents brace for worst cyclone since Yasi

Debbie is one slow moving storm. Hope that those sticking it out understand what they are getting into.

Quoting 84. Icybubba:

can we talk about 90L sense it might be the last storm we can track before the blog goes bye bye


Blog is not going bye bye - it will be here. Instead of signing onto here to comment, you will have to sign in through DISQUS.
893
WGUS54 KFWD 262355
FFWFWD
TXC035-143-193-425-270300-
/O.NEW.KFWD.FF.W.0005.170326T2355Z-170327T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
655 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN SOMERVELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTH CENTRAL HAMILTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN ERATH COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN BOSQUE COUNTY IN CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1000 PM CDT.

* AT 654 PM CDT, DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN. THIS RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO EXCESSIVE WATER RUNOFF
AND CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. LOW-LYING AREAS ARE MOST VULNERABLE TO
RAPIDLY RISING WATER. SOME LOW-WATER CROSSINGS MAY FLOOD AND BECOME
IMPASSABLE.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
HICO AND IREDELL.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WARNED AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS, COUNTRY ROADS, FARMLAND, AND OTHER LOW LYING
SPOTS.
Cherry blossoms before ruins and a moody sky in Pompeii, March 26, 2017

Quoting 86. daddyjames:



Blog is not going bye bye - it will be here. Instead of signing onto here to comment, you will have to sign in through DISQUS.

Oh so will it stop being crappy? Because I was starting to worry about where I was going to get formation and discuss Tropical Systems this year
372
WFUS54 KOUN 270007
TOROUN
OKC123-270030-
/O.NEW.KOUN.TO.W.0002.170327T0007Z-170327T0030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
707 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL PONTOTOC COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 706 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO MOVING SOUTHWESTERN INTO ADA, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.
SPOTTERS HAVE REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD WITH THIS STORM.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ADA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A STORM SHELTER, SAFE ROOM OR AN INTERIOR
ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU
ARE OUTDOORS, IN A MOBILE HOME, OR IN A VEHICLE, MOVE TO THE CLOSEST
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.



LAT...LON 3470 9671 3476 9673 3486 9656 3472 9648
TIME...MOT...LOC 0006Z 242DEG 14KT 3474 9668

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.75IN



..SPEG.
Quoting 58. daddyjames:



The January 2017 event was the first time that any part of South Florida was ever included in High Risk of Severe Weather. As far as determining Moderate Risk, I don't know of an easily (and I use easily) accessible database to determine what you asked.

Having said that, someone here will prolly be able to dig up something up.


I was fearful 1-22-17 but fortunately it was a relative bust. GA unfortunately had some fatalities but peninsular FL lucked out.





Quoting 89. Icybubba:


Oh so will it stop being crappy? Because I was starting to worry about where I was going to get formation and discuss Tropical Systems this year


My comments will remain the same, I cannot speak for the others ;)

But yes we'll be here going over the season as it progresses.
Severe weather over the central U.S. and 90L in the Atlantic

Quoting 85. daddyjames:

Tropical Cyclone Debbie: Thousands evacuated as residents brace for worst cyclone since Yasi

Debbie is one slow moving storm. Hope that those sticking it out understand what they are getting into.




how fast is debbie moving?
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings


SVR T-STORM WARNING WICHITA KS - KICT 714 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING WILMINGTON OH - KILN 813 PM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 711 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING WICHITA KS - KICT 708 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017
TORNADO WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 707 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 704 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017
FLASH FLOOD WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 655 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 655 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017
TORNADO WARNING WILMINGTON OH - KILN 752 PM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING TULSA OK - KTSA 648 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017
Quoting 94. earthisanocean:



how fast is debbie moving?


about 1-3 knots to the southwest
Quoting 89. Icybubba:


Oh so will it stop being crappy? Because I was starting to worry about where I was going to get formation and discuss Tropical Systems this year
Should be less crappy anyway, I think the jury is still out on weather it will be crap-free.
Quoting 94. earthisanocean:



how fast is debbie moving?




About 12 -24 hours of storm conditions along the coast.
Officially the San Juan NWS confirms the small Tornado in Trujillo Alto.

13P/MCYC/D/C3


TXPS29 KNES 262357
TCSWSP

A. 13P (DEBBIE)

B. 26/2330Z

C. 19.1S

D. 150.4E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T4.0/4.0/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/WINDSAT/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...DT=4.0 BASED ON 1.2 BANDING ON LOG10
SPIRAL. PT=4.0. MET=4.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

26/1951Z 18.7S 150.4E WINDSAT
26/2028Z 18.9S 150.4E SSMIS


...SCHWARTZ
574
WFUS54 KOUN 270023
TOROUN
OKC123-270100-
/O.NEW.KOUN.TO.W.0003.170327T0023Z-170327T0100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
723 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL PONTOTOC COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 800 PM CDT

* AT 723 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES EAST OF ADA,
MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH
.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
EAST CENTRAL PONTOTOC COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPEAT, A TORNADO IS ON THE GROUND. TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A
STORM SHELTER, SAFE ROOM OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS, IN A MOBILE
HOME, OR IN A VEHICLE, MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.



LAT...LON 3473 9658 3477 9658 3482 9641 3471 9641
TIME...MOT...LOC 0023Z 264DEG 14KT 3475 9656

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...1.75IN


Confirmed tornado on the ground in Southern OK, East Central Pontotoc County. Take shelter.
Quoting 103. Envoirment:





Funny they (NEWS9) tweeted about it before they went on air about it.



For those watching the current severe event, Michael Phelps has a nice live stream looking at the radar and warnings - Link
Quoting 101. BaltimoreBrian:

it will end up in a nature reserve or a zoo now
cannot be rtn to the wild
it was some ones pet that could no longer
tend too it because it got too big to feed and look after
Quoting 107. Envoirment:




For those watching the current severe event, Michael Phelps has a nice live stream looking at the radar and warnings - Link


052
WFUS54 KFWD 270025
TORFWD
TXC121-270100-
/O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0013.170327T0025Z-170327T0100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
725 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN DENTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 800 PM CDT.

* AT 725 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR JUSTIN, OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF TROPHY CLUB,
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. CASA RADAR SHOWS STRONG ROTATION
SOUTHWEST OF JUSTIN NOW. SEEK SHELTER NOW!

HAZARD...TORNADO AND HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
JUSTIN AROUND 735 PM CDT.
ROANOKE AND NORTHLAKE AROUND 740 PM CDT.
CORRAL CITY AROUND 745 PM CDT.
ARGYLE, DOUBLE OAK AND BARTONVILLE AROUND 755 PM CDT.
FLOWER MOUND AROUND 800 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
PONDER.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...
INTERSTATE 35 NEAR MILE MARKER 468.
INTERSTATE 35W BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 70 AND 85.
INTERSTATE 35E BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 464 AND 466.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS, IN A
MOBILE HOME, OR IN A VEHICLE, MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER
AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.



LAT...LON 3324 9712 3305 9712 3299 9740 3317 9739
TIME...MOT...LOC 0025Z 243DEG 23KT 3306 9736

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...2.00IN



DUNN
Quoting 106. daddyjames:



Funny they (NEWS9) tweeted about it before they went on air about it.


The warning about the confirmed sighting went up before the tweet. And twitter isn't a bad place to get news out - lots of people tweeting about the current ongoing tornado threat. The tornado sirens have been blasting a lot across many places as well.


Quoting 108. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


it will end up in a nature reserve or a zoo now
cannot be rtn to the wild
it was some ones pet that could no longer
tend too it because it got too big to feed and look after


Most likely t won't, it is the result of a cross between a domestic cat and a Serval cat. It will have to be adopted by a sanctuary, or it'll be put to sleep. No, zoo would take it in.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
TORNADO WARNING     WILMINGTON OH - KILN 834 PM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING WILMINGTON OH - KILN 834 PM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 726 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017
TORNADO WARNING     FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 725 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 724 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017
TORNADO WARNING     NORMAN OK - KOUN 723 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 721 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 721 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 718 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING WICHITA KS - KICT 714 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING WILMINGTON OH - KILN 813 PM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 711 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING WICHITA KS - KICT 708 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017
TORNADO WARNING     NORMAN OK - KOUN 707 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 704 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017
FLASH FLOOD WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 655 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 655 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017
TORNADO WARNING     WILMINGTON OH - KILN 752 PM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING TULSA OK - KTSA 648 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING FORT WORTH TX - KFWD 648 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING WILMINGTON OH - KILN 745 PM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 641 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 641 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017<>br style="color: rgb(0, 51, 102); font-family: Times; font-size:
Quoting 110. Envoirment:



The warning about the confirmed sighting went up before the tweet. And twitter isn't a bad place to get news out - lots of people tweeting about the current ongoing tornado threat. The tornado sirens have been blasting a lot across many places as well.





You're making me feel old and outdated :(
Big rotating storm just west of McAlester, Oklahoma moving east-northeast. Radar velocity shows hurricane-force winds aloft as well, so there could definitely be some damaging wind with this cell as well. I think it's actually tornado warned right now. Be careful if you live in central or eastern Oklahoma today!
Apparantley there's a confirmed tornado on the ground northwest of Justin. Radar indicates there likely is too:


So much for Debbie's alleged rapid intensification episode that the JTWC was forecasting yesterday. Such a weaksauce cyclone season for them.
448
WFUS54 KOUN 270041
TOROUN
OKC085-095-270115-
/O.NEW.KOUN.TO.W.0004.170327T0041Z-170327T0115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
741 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN LOVE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 815 PM CDT

* AT 741 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR THACKERVILLE, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND HAIL UP TO TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KINGSTON, THACKERVILLE, LEBANON, WILLIS, WOODVILLE, WESTERN LAKE
TEXOMA AND MCBRIDE.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 2 AND 10.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A STORM SHELTER, SAFE ROOM OR AN INTERIOR
ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU
ARE OUTDOORS, IN A MOBILE HOME, OR IN A VEHICLE, MOVE TO THE CLOSEST
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.



LAT...LON 3372 9712 3383 9720 3409 9673 3390 9659
3391 9661 3392 9667 3387 9669 3383 9677
3387 9680 3387 9683 3385 9685 3387 9689
3396 9692 3395 9697 3389 9698 3384 9703
3385 9709 3382 9705 3380 9709 3374 9709
TIME...MOT...LOC 0041Z 239DEG 39KT 3382 9708

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...2.00IN



WR
558
WFUS54 KFWD 270046
TORFWD
TXC097-181-270115-
/O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0014.170327T0046Z-170327T0115Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
746 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN COOKE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN GRAYSON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 815 PM CDT.

* AT 745 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR THACKERVILLE, OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MARIETTA,
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
NORTHEASTERN COOKE AND NORTHWESTERN GRAYSON COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS, IN A
MOBILE HOME, OR IN A VEHICLE, MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER
AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.



LAT...LON 3387 9688 3385 9685 3387 9683 3387 9680
3383 9677 3373 9709 3377 9709 3380 9710
3381 9708 3382 9705 3386 9706 3384 9705
3384 9703 3389 9698 3395 9700 3396 9698
3394 9697 3396 9692
TIME...MOT...LOC 0045Z 232DEG 31KT 3382 9706

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN



STALLEY
Quoting 113. daddyjames:



You're making me feel old and outdated :(


Haha don't worry. Twitter is more of a headache. Loads of stupid tweets like "I hope a tornado rips through my school" and stuff to go through to get the most up to date info.

Also tornado confirmed in Justin:





If it doesn't embed properly, there's a video of what looks to be a tornado.
Quoting 116. KoritheMan:

So much for Debbie's alleged rapid intensification episode that the JTWC was forecasting yesterday. Such a weaksauce cyclone season for them.


its still got around 24 hours over water, cat 3 now...plenty of time to suck up fuel, no? not any mountains like taiwan either, to shred it's structure
Can't believe people still do this


Sam Lillo%u200F
@splillo

IDIOTS on 35N near Davis
Kenzie Krocak%u200F @Kenziek56 25m25 minutes ago

@nwsnorman 7:25 pm at e1590 and cr 3620 looking north

Quoting 111. daddyjames:



Most likely t won't, it is the result of a cross between a domestic cat and a Serval cat. It will have to be adopted by a sanctuary, or it'll be put to sleep. No, zoo would take it in.

yeah true I went back read the article
this is a aww what a cute kitten too omg this thing is a monster
its costing me 300 a month just to take care of it in food and litter


more if it needs vet stuff

nice animal just needs a good home
<blockquote class='blogquote'>Quoting 106. daddyjames:



Funny they (NEWS9) tweeted about it before they went on air about it.


Somebody save me from CenterPoint Energy!

From twitter:

Thanks for your patience during the outages caused by last night's storms. Trees and limbs on lines plus lightning slow our response times.


10:00 AM - 25 Mar 2017
1 reply
0 retweets
0 likes

Reply
1
Retweet

Like


Ariel Starke‏ @arielstarke Mar 25

More
@CNPalerts at least update potential outage restoration times! We are left with "pending" ugh!


CenterPoint Energy‏ 
@CNPalerts
Follow

More
Please stay at least 10 feet away from downed power lines. Report them to us at 713-207-2222. Let's all stay safe. #hounews


Hurray for daylight! We've still got 4,400+ customers out, down from 17,000+ an hour ago. Tree and power crews are on it! #hounews


Crews working to bring back the 17,000+ customers without power. Downed trees, limbs on lines increase restoration time. #hounews


Crews working to bring back the 17,000+ customers without power. Downed trees, limbs on lines increase restoration time. #hounews
*


Making good progress as crews have restored 21,000+ homes since 10 pm. Tracker shows 15,700+ still out. Status @ http://bit.ly/1uHyKpG


When limbs, trees fall on power lines, restoration takes longer. See est. restoration times at http://bit.ly/1uHyKpG  #hounews


Enter your address into our Outage Tracker tool and get estimated restoration time. Our crews are working hard.

CenterPoint Energy‏ @CNPalerts Mar 24

More
CenterPoint Energy delivers electricity & restores it after storms. Not the city or elec. providers. *

And so on, and so forth.


*Their crews are working 24/7 to restore power? BULL! My lights went off Friday evening. This is Sunday and they only just now came back on. And they have the gall to thank me for my patience? Good Lord!!

*I think the City of Houston would do better job of getting people's lights back on than CenterPoint Energy, don't you?

And now, according to SPC, there may be an even WORSE storm system coming Houston by Wednesday. GRRRR!

Any comments?
Good bye everyone. This is it.

A BIG THANKS TO EVERYONE IN WU. I LEARNED TONS
THIS DAY HATH COME

WE SHALL SEEK OUR OWN PATHS AHEAD MAYBE WE WILL CROSS ROADS IN THE FUTURE
BEST WEATHER SITE I'VE EVER ENCOUNTERED
THIS IS MY END AS A BLOGGER. I'VE COMPLETED THE RACE AND LOVED IT.

3 Facebook friends from WU!
My wu rating: 5 star

Regards,
Maxweather

Farewell.
Quoting 126. pureet1948:


And now, according to SPC, there may be an even WORSE storm system coming Houston by Wednesday. GRRRR!

Any comments?


Hold onto your hat? Wednesday should be fun - mostly confined to Texas.

In my neck of the woods, only thing that came close dissipated before it got here. Whew. Lots of hail and a few swirly whirlies today. Hopefully the hail did not do too much damage. However, if you are shopping for a car and don't mind a few pings and dings, start checking out OK and TX this week :D.

Quoting 127. MaxWeather:

Good bye everyone. This is it.

A BIG THANKS TO EVERYONE IN WU. I LEARNED TONS
THIS DAY HATH COME

WE SHALL SEEK OUR OWN PATHS AHEAD MAYBE WE WILL CROSS ROADS IN THE FUTURE
BEST WEATHER SITE I'VE EVER ENCOUNTERED
THIS IS MY END AS A BLOGGER. I'VE COMPLETED THE RACE AND LOVED IT.

3 Facebook friends from WU!
My wu rating: 5 star

Regards,
Maxweather

Farewell.


why you leaving us MAX?
Quoting 128. daddyjames:



Hold onto your hat? Wednesday should be fun - mostly confined to Texas.

In my neck of the woods, only thing that came close dissipated before it got here. Whew. Lots of hail and a few swirly whirlies today. Hopefully the hail did not do too much damage. However, if you are shopping for a car and don't mind a few pings and dings, start checking out OK and TX this week :D.




I did say worse, daddyjames:

HGX AFD:

Beginning Wednesday
morning, high temperatures in the mid 80s should well surpass
convection temperatures in the upper 70s/ lower 80s. Forecast
soundings during this time period also pick up on higher values of
precipitable waters, ranging between 1.25-1.75 inches. The
capping inversion should also erode by late morning, allowing for
deep convective initiation to occur by early afternoon. The storm
relative helicity values between the surface and up to one
kilometer increase Wednesday morning and into the early afternoon,
from 230-300m^2/s^2. CAPE values will also range between
2500-3500J/kg Wednesday afternoon and into the evening, therefore
slightly concern about the chance for some low level rotation in
developing storms. Forecast soundings are also indicating the
possibility of hail formation, as the CAPE values will be large,
and wet bulb zero heights will fall below 10,000ft.


Now, doesn't that sound like an even WORSE system than what went through Friday?

P.S. I complained to a supervisor about my service once, following one of these severe weather events, and THIS is what he said: "(The threat of power outages) are part of living in Houston. Get used to it." My God!
Quoting 130. pureet1948:



I did say worse, daddyjames:

HGX AFD:

Beginning Wednesday
morning, high temperatures in the mid 80s should well surpass
convection temperatures in the upper 70s/ lower 80s. Forecast
soundings during this time period also pick up on higher values of
precipitable waters, ranging between 1.25-1.75 inches. The
capping inversion should also erode by late morning, allowing for
deep convective initiation to occur by early afternoon. The storm
relative helicity values between the surface and up to one
kilometer increase Wednesday morning and into the early afternoon,
from 230-300m^2/s^2. CAPE values will also range between
2500-3500J/kg Wednesday afternoon and into the evening, therefore
slightly concern about the chance for some low level rotation in
developing storms. Forecast soundings are also indicating the
possibility of hail formation, as the CAPE values will be large,
and wet bulb zero heights will fall below 10,000ft.


Now, doesn't that sound like an even WORSE system than what went through Friday?

P.S. I complained to a supervisor about my service once, following one of these severe weather events, and THIS is what he said: "(The threat of power outages) are part of living in Houston. Get used to it." My God!


LOL - not into customer service are they?
Quoting 131. daddyjames:



LOL - not into customer service are they?



No, apparently not. Why are people wiling to put up with this?

Anyway, what about the storm system in question. How does it stack up to Friday's trough. Does it mean stronger, perhaps more dynamic storms across SE Tx? Perhaps even deadlier lightning? Even MORE people without lights than on Friday? What do you think?




Quoting 123. daddyjames:

Can't believe people still do this


Sam Lillo%u200F
@splillo

IDIOTS on 35N near Davis




Must be from Texas.
I'm off for the evening
Hmm, if MaxWeather is leaving us, someone else will have to maintain the predictions for the upcoming hurricane season.

I can take that one if peeps are interested.
Quoting 135. daddyjames:

I'm off for the evening
Hmm, if MaxWeather is leaving us, someone else will have to maintain the predictions for the upcoming hurricane season.

I can take that one if peeps are interested.


I'm a peep and I'm interested.
Quoting 135. daddyjames:

I'm off for the evening
Hmm, if MaxWeather is leaving us, someone else will have to maintain the predictions for the upcoming hurricane season.

I can take that one if peeps are interested.

we have to convince max too just stay
at least to see what it all is anyway
then decide from that point
I would imagine
MAx - if you are really going, then I'll asume that - guess I'll have to set something up on DISQUS. Won't be as nice as you have done over the years.

Let us know if you'll change your mind.
Quoting 131. daddyjames:



LOL - not into customer service are they?
no but it is direct and too the point
Quoting 137. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


we have to convince max too just stay
at least to see what it all is anyway
then decide from that point
I would imagine



Agree wholeheartedly with that statement.



Contains a nice video of the earlier tornado near Ada. Click link if it doesn't embed properly.
Before I go.

677
WFUS54 KOUN 270119
TOROUN
OKC063-270145-
/O.NEW.KOUN.TO.W.0005.170327T0119Z-170327T0145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
819 PM CDT SUN MAR 26 2017

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN HUGHES COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 845 PM CDT

* AT 818 PM CDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR GERTY, MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STUART AND GERTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A STORM SHELTER, SAFE ROOM OR AN INTERIOR
ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU
ARE OUTDOORS, IN A MOBILE HOME, OR IN A VEHICLE, MOVE TO THE CLOSEST
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.



LAT...LON 3483 9609 3481 9629 3486 9630 3494 9609
TIME...MOT...LOC 0118Z 252DEG 24KT 3485 9623

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...2.50IN



..SPEG.
Quoting 120. Envoirment:



Haha don't worry. Twitter is more of a headache. Loads of stupid tweets like "I hope a tornado rips through my school" and stuff to go through to get the most up to date info.


Yeah, I tried it. I lasted 24 hours. Got too annoying.
Quoting 139. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

no but it is direct and too the point


1. I was just about to call you up, KEEPEROFTHEGATE. I asked about the predicted Wednesday storm system. Is it an even worse threat for SE Texas than Friday's event. Will the storms be even deadlier that day?


2. You've heard some unpleasant things about CenterPoint Energy yourself, then, eh?
145. beell
Quoting 143. daddyjames:



Yeah, I tried it. I lasted 24 hours. Got too annoying.


If your're selective on who you follow, it ain't too bad. Not a big user though. I think my "Following" list is up to 23!


debbie finally clearing out an eye, trailing a huge line of clouds to the east..courtesy himawari 8
147. beell
Quoting 123. daddyjames:

Can't believe people still do this


Sam Lillo%u200F
@splillo

IDIOTS on 35N near Davis



Are they dodging tornadoes or dodging hail under the overpass?
Quoting 144. pureet1948:



1. I was just about to call you up, KEEPEROFTHEGATE. I asked about the predicted Wednesday storm system. Is it an even worse threat for SE Texas than Friday's event. Will the storms be even deadlier that day?


2. You've heard some unpleasant things about CenterPoint Energy yourself, then, eh?




#2 only from others
Quoting 147. beell:



Are they dodging tornadoes or dodging hail under the overpass?
hiding from the hail but still not smart if twister winds are near by
Quoting 145. beell:



If your're selective on who you follow, it ain't too bad. Not a big user though. I think my "Following" list is up to 23!


I think at the time I was following 5 people. 2 of which I was related to. Maybe that was the problem ;)
Quoting 146. earthisanocean:



debbie finally clearing out an eye, trailing a huge line of clouds to the east..courtesy himawari 8
fully fledged mayor once that eye clears super cyclone
Quoting 148. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:





#2 only from others



please explain graphic to me. I think what I want to know is if the risk for severe weather will be enhanced rather than just slight on Wednesday for Houston.


although it seems rather ragged, and pretty large. can someone with more knowledge tell me what a larger eye does to a storm? if anything? i'm pretty sure a larger eye lends itself to a weaker storm, compared tot he pinhole eyes of superstorms like patricia, or wilma. but any added insight, is greatly appreciated :)
154. beell
Quoting 149. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

hiding from the hail but still not smart if twister winds are near by


True, still not smart. IF you knew which way a tornado or rotation indicating a tornado was moving, the hail core would generally be to the right of the tornado's path. If the tornado is moving towards you, hail...then a tornado!

I have seen several mad scrambles to get under limited cover during big-hail storms-so I won't preach. Been there.

In a perfect world, smart drivers under a well-published SPC moderate risk of hail and tornadoes would keep on eye on the radar (there are apps for that) and make that (sometimes) 15-20 minute adjustment in travel plans to avoid the worst of it altogether.
Why hasn't 90L had ATCF data released for 00z? Has it been declassified as an invest already?
I guess 90L is gone? They stopped issuing stuff.
Quoting 156. Andrebrooks:

I guess 90L is gone? They stopped issuing stuff.


Maybe this is why (in part).

* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL902017 03/26/17 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 32 30 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 32 30 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGEM 35 35 33 31 28 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP
Debbie is looking better and better. Eye is clearing out and becoming less ragged, convection firing up around the eye. Circulation is tightening up as well. Would not be surprised if we have a major when this is all said and done. I think if this were in the middle of the ocean it would get up to cat 5 within 24 hours but land interaction should prevent that from happening.



Is it safe to say the 'coastal el nino' for Peru is quieting down?
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #24
Hurricane Warning
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEBBIE, CATEGORY THREE (24U)
5:04 PM EST March 27 2017
============================

At 5:00 PM EST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Debbie, Category Three (952 hPa) located at 19.5S 150.1E or 200 km east northeast of Bowen and 205 km north northeast of Mackay has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 3 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
================
35 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=============
80 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
80 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
80 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
80 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
=============
110 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
140 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
140 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
110 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Severe Tropical cyclone Debbie strengthened into a category 3 system this morning, and is expected to intensify further as it continues to move west-southwest towards the north Queensland coast today and overnight tonight. Severe Tropical cyclone Debbie is forecast to make landfall as a category 4 tropical cyclone between Cape Upstart and Cape Hillsborough north of Mackay on Tuesday morning.

GALES are now occuring about the Whitsunday Islands and the nearby coast, extending south to about Sarina, and are expected to extend to the remaining exposed coast and islands elsewhere between Ayr and St Lawrence this evening, and potentially extending further northwest to Cardwell and further inland to locations such as Charters Towers, Pentland and Mount Coolon on overnight and Tuesday.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts over 125 km/h may develop about the exposed coast and islands between Cape Upstart and Mackay during the remainder of the afternoon and evening. These DESTRUCTIVE WINDS may extend further northwest along the coast to Townsville overnight and during Tuesday and to adjacent inland areas, including Collinsville, during the day on Tuesday.

The VERY DESTRUCTIVE CORE of tropical cyclone Debbie is forecast to cross the coast between Ayr and Cape Hillsborough north of Mackay on Tuesday morning with wind gusts potentially to 260 km/h near the centre of the system.

Residents between Cape Upstart and St Lawrence are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast on Tuesday morning. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level well above the normal tide, with damaging waves and flooding of some low-lying areas close to the shoreline as the cyclone approaches the coast on Tuesday. Large waves may also develop along the beachfront. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.

Areas of heavy rain with the potential to cause severe flash flooding have developed around the central coast and Whitsundays and are expected to spread to other parts of the northern and central Queensland coast and adjacent inland areas tonight and continue through Tuesday. Widespread daily rainfall totals of 150 to 250 mm, with isolated event totals of 500 mm, are also likely to lead to major river flooding over a broad area next week, and a Flood Watch is current for coastal catchments between Rollingstone and Gladstone, extending inland to the Upper Flinders, Thomson and Barcoo catchments.


Dvorak Intensity:T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 20.0S 148.9E - 95 knots (CAT 4) east of Bowen
24 HRS 20.4S 147.5E - 55 knots (CAT 3) Overland Queensland west of Collinsville
48 HRS 21.9S 145.5E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS 23.9S 148.4E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=================
Tropical cyclone Debbie has shown rapid development through today. Deep convection rapidly developed around the system center this morning, with a clear eye developing during the day. The latest Dvorak analysis was therefore based on an eye pattern in IR, with a LG surround and OW eye, with +0.5 for eye adjustment DT of 5.5. MET and PT are 5.0. FT was based on DT but constrained to 5.0 due to Dvorak rules. SATCON has jumped dramatically during the day to about 90 knots. ADT from both agencies are around 5.5. Forecast system to become category 4 in the next 6 hours.

Confidence in the center position is rated as good based on a combination of radar imagery from Willis Island and Bowen radars and animated visible satellite imagery.

The mid-level ridge building to the south of the system has become the primary steering influence. However, animated WV imagery suggests that the shortwave trough moving north into SE Queensland may have a little more amplitude than the models are suggesting, leading to a slight weakening of the ridge and a slightly more southerly track which has been evident over the past 12 hours. There may also be some influence from internal processes within the cyclone core, where it remains somewhat disorganized. Overall, the system is most likely to remain on a general west southwest track for the next 24 hours up to landfall on the Queensland coast. There is still reasonably high confidence in this track, although there is more uncertainty on the southern side.

The system remains located in an area of weak vertical wind shear over sea surface temperatures of 29 to 30 degrees Celsius. Conditions will remain favorable for development right up until landfall, and this has been reflected in an intensity forecast at a standard rate following the recent period of rapid intensification.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect from Cardwell to St Lawrence including Townsville, Mackay, and the Whitsunday Islands, and inland ncluding Charters Towers, Pentland, Collinsville, and Mount Coolon of Queensland

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect from inland areas between Lucinda and Pentlandof Queensland


After all that, it appears as if there was only a single tornado touchdown. Good.

Dang it, I hate that this automatically changes :(
Quoting 160. Lurkindanger:




Is it safe to say the 'coastal el nino' for Peru is quieting down?


possibly

The idea of El Nino is failing IMO

Cold pool increasing




upper heat content Anoms decreasing



SOI is still rising ((largest increase since La Nina ended))
(+ = La Nina and - = El Nino)


Quoting 160. Lurkindanger:




Is it safe to say the 'coastal el nino' for Peru is quieting down?


should see an updated one of these later today



should see a cooler nino regions later today
Debbie:





Quoting 160. Lurkindanger:




Is it safe to say the 'coastal el nino' for Peru is quieting down?

Yesterday I've spotted La Nina's hide-out at Rhine River in Germany - and decided to send her back to the Pacific immediatedly. Guess she followed my advice quickly, lol!

Corals die as global warming collides with local weather in the South China Sea
Date:
March 23, 2017
Source:
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
Summary:
In the South China Sea, a 2°C rise in the sea surface temperature in June 2015 was amplified to produce a 6°C rise on Dongsha Atoll, a shallow coral reef ecosystem, killing approximately 40 percent of the resident coral community within weeks, according to a study.

Link
Japan avalanche: eight high school climbers feared dead
More than 60 students were climbing near Nasu Onsen ski resort north of Tokyo when avalanche struck
Guardian, Monday 27 March 2017 09.37 BST
... Robert Speta, a meteorologist for NHK World, said Tochigi prefecture had experienced an increase in unusual snow in recent days despite it being late March. This snow combined with rising temperatures increased the avalanche risk, he said.
“Typically it tapers off in late March, the snowpack settles and it’s OK for climbing and off-piste skiing, but just recently we had this big spike in the snow depth,” Speta said. ...
BOM Queensland:
@BOM_Qld 13 min

Severe Tropical #CycloneDebbie now a category 4. Sustained winds of 165km with gusts to 250km/hr near centre.

AMO looking not so great for hurricane activity.
Busy days to come this week ;-)
Week ahead: Committee to probe climate science
The Hill, by Devin Henry - 03/27/17 06:00 AM EDT
The House Science Committee has scheduled a provocative hearing next week to challenge the science behind climate change.
Rep. Lamar Smith's (R-Texas) panel will meet on Wednesday to consider "assumptions, policy implications, and the scientific method" related to climate change.
The meeting will give Smith, who doubts the broad scientific consensus that greenhouse gas emissions have caused climate change, a large platform from which to try making his point.
He's invited several witnesses to help question climate change, including two scientists who made their names opposing the central tenants of manmade climate change, and another who has said its impact on the Earth is overstated.
Democrats are expected to strongly oppose Republicans' assumptions. and will certainly use the hearing to note the exceeding conclusion among climate scientists that human activity has created, and is exacerbating, a warming trend around the globe.
They have invited Michael Mann, the climate scientist behind the famous "hockey stick" graph showing a sharp increase in the planet's average temperature, to rebuff Republicans and climate skeptics at the hearing.
The meeting comes as the Trump administration expands its assault on the climate change work advanced by former President Obama.
That may culminate next week with the release of a long-expected -- but often delayed -- executive order aimed at administrative climate work instituted during the previous administration. ...
Quoting 172. Gearsts:

AMO looking not so great for hurricane activity.



may change by June
wait and see
Quoting 174. wunderkidcayman:



may change by June
wait and see
Models are also forecasting strong trade winds over the MDR for the next couple of weeks.
Quoting 165. elioe:

ADT for Debbie:


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 941.2mb/112.4kt


Wow! Now:

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 934.6mb/119.8kt



James Reynolds is covering Debbie's approach and landfall in Australia:
https://twitter.com/earthuncuttv

Josh Morgerman is there, too:
https://twitter.com/iCyclone
The Mercers, Trump mega-donors, back group that casts doubt on climate science

The atmosphere was buoyant at a conference held by the conservative Heartland Institute last week at a downtown Washington hotel, where speakers denounced climate science as rigged and jubilantly touted deep cuts President Trump is seeking to make to the Environmental Protection Agency.

Front and center during the two-day gathering were New York hedge fund executive Robert Mercer and his daughter Rebekah Mercer, Republican mega-donors who with their former political adviser Stephen K. Bannon helped finance an alternative media ecosystem that amplified Trump’s populist themes during last year’s campaign.

The Mercers’ attendance at the two-day Heartland conference offered a telling sign of the low-profile family’s priorities: With Trump in office, the influential financiers appear intent on putting muscle behind the fight to roll back environmental regulations, a central focus of the new administration.


Link
179. elioe
90L floater is still found, and it is seen, that convection gets sheared farther away from the low-level circulation. With models showing only 12-24 hours left in the symmetric shallow warm-core corner of phase diagram, we can say bye bye to any remaining hopes of subtropical cyclogenesis.

Harriet Tatham:
@HarrietTatham

Beauty in the face of disaster. This image was taken by Siobhan Mountney from #Townsville. #cyclonedebbie @ABCemergency @ABCNewsBrisbane.

Russian scientists find 7,000 Siberian hills possibly filled with explosive gas
WaPo, by Ben Guarino March 27 at 6:48 AM
Russian scientists recently discovered 7,000 earthen knobs erupting from the Siberian Arctic, each the size of a small hill. It was as though the permafrost had broken out into giant grass-covered mounds. What’s more, an unknown number of these bubbles could contain methane and explode, forming craters, the Siberian Times reported.
Using a combination of satellite images and field study, the researchers tallied the bumps. They found far more than previously counted. “At first such a bump is a bubble, or ‘bulgunyakh’ in the local Yakut language. With time the bubble explodes, releasing gas,” Alexey Titovsky, director of the Yamal Department for Science and Innovation, told the Siberian Times. “This is how gigantic funnels form.”
It was unclear from satellite surveillance alone which of these bubbles posed a danger of erupting, Titovsky said. “Scientists are working on detecting and structuring signs of potential threat,” he said, “like the maximum height of a bump and pressure that the earth can withstand.” ...


Original article in the Siberian Times:
7,000 underground gas bubbles poised to 'explode' in Arctic
By The Siberian Times reporter, 20 March 2017
Bulging bumps in the Yamal and Gydan peninsulas believed to be caused by thawing permafrost releasing methane.
Scientists have discovered as many as 7,000 gas-filled 'bubbles' expected to explode in Actic regions of Siberia after an exercise involving field expeditions and satellite surveillance, TASS reported.
A number of large craters - seen on our images here - have appeared on the landscape in northern Siberia in recent years and they are being carefully studied by scientists who believe they were formed when pingos exploded. ...

More see link above.


'With time the bubble explodes, releasing gas. This is how gigantic funnels form.' Picture: Yamal Region
Video:


Latest Weather Graphs for Mackay

Rainfall



Cyclone Debbie Largest Storm to hit Queensland since 2011 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bZjtr7reyQg
Debbie has become a real beauty!


(saved loop)
Good Morning; lots of active weather today across Conus and the global tropics. Starting with Conus here is the current look and forecast:



And the storm reports from yesterday and convective outlook from SPC for today:

<>img yesterday Reports Graphic
The very active Pacific and Indian Ocean topics, and Debbie, getting ready to impact Australia:




And finally, the little "dot" as to a possible low pressure system North of the Antilles that folks were talking about at the end of last week: lookie here, the cyclonic circulation is actually there to the North of Haiti this morning: a low is starting to form.








The shear to the North of Hispanola is very high, but the lower level vorticity is vigorous and SSTs are in the marginal range; we could see a subtropic storm form over the next 48 hours if the convection continues to fire; it will be an interesting watch.



Quoting 192. weathermanwannabe:

The shear to the North of Hispanola is very high, but the lower level vorticity is vigorous and SSTs are in the marginal range; we could see a subtropic storm form over the next 48 hours if the convection continues to fire; it will be an interesting watch.





They labelled it an invest yesterday for all of 6 hours. Analysis indicates that it is extratropical, but that might change with time.

Quoting 193. daddyjames:


Thanks; I was out fishing yesterday so I missed the Invest status..............Thanks for the update; it's actually looking rather decent this morning.  The lower level circulation is very broad but it might be able to tighten up over the next few days.
Always get a LOL from the NWS Parody twitter account (NWS Podunk)





196. elioe
Quoting 193. daddyjames:




99L should be retired from invest numbering lists due to the excessively long wait it gave; likewise, 90L should be retired for the exact opposite reason. ;)
Cyclone Debbie from the ISS (06:28Z, Mar 26)

WOW! Big time sub surface warming beneath Nino's 1&2, and Nino 3. We have to see if this builds westward across the Pacific. Also the second graph below is still showing cooling at an incredible rate across the Indian Ocean and the MDR. All of these factors will likely lead to a strong El-Nino later in the year and one that is focused near South America.



Quoting 160. Lurkindanger:




Is it safe to say the 'coastal el nino' for Peru is quieting down?


For now yea but look at earlier post which shows a very impressive warm pool developing at sub surface across the Eastern Nino regions. Values now at 5C above average sub surface!
Debbie looks impressive on the floater loop; a big storm: looks to me like it has been going though an EWRC over the past 10 hours or so on approach to landfall and those little white specks are hot towers; intensifying a little bit after mixing out the dry air that got into the circulation yesterday as noted by Dr. Masters on Sunday.




livestream from a bit south of where debbie looks to make landfall

Link
Enhanced Risk today.






Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Valid 271300Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MID-SOUTH TO
CENTRAL KY/MIDDLE TN...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOWER OH VALLEY TO
CENTRAL MS/AL...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MIDDLE OH VALLEY
TO LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across the
Lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys into the Tennessee Valley this
afternoon and evening. Very large hail, damaging winds, and a couple
tornadoes will be possible.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough along the KS/MO border will move east to the
Cumberland Plateau by early Tuesday. Attendant surface cyclone will
track from the Ozark Plateau into the Middle OH Valley, weakening
late in the period. A cold front will shift east across the
Mid-South this afternoon with trailing portion stalling tonight over
the Lower MS Valley.

...Lower MS/OH and TN Valleys...
Two storm clusters are ongoing across southern IL/western KY and
separately over northwest AR. The 27/00Z WRF-NSSL and HRW-ARW appear
to have the best reflection of these clusters compared to other
CAMs. The eastern cluster should slow destabilization north of the
OH River today where surface dew points are predominately in the 40s
as of 12Z. Meanwhile, low-level moisture will continue to advect
northeast ahead of the northwest AR cluster into the Mid-South
within a broad 30-40 kt LLJ. This should result in a plume of lower
60s surface dew points nosing towards the MS/OH River confluence,
with middle 60s maintained across the Lower MS Valley. The
increasing moisture coupled with diurnal destabilization will likely
result in MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg developing by mid afternoon.
Low-level WAA ahead of the AR cluster in conjunction with
convergence along the impinging cold front should serve as a focus
for increasing afternoon storm development.

With effective shear magnitudes of 35-45 kt, several supercells are
anticipated, especially with southern extent in the open warm
sector. Large hail, a couple tornadoes, and isolated damaging winds
are most probable with this activity centered on the Mid-South. Some
of the hail may be significantly severe owing to steep mid-level
lapse rates sampled by 12Z Jackson, Shreveport, and Little Rock
RAOBs. A few of these supercells will likely organize into one or
more east-moving line segments axis, with damaging winds becoming
the predominant hazard towards middle TN/central KY/northwest AL.

Farther south into central portions of MS/AL, weak 500-mb height
falls during the day coupled with heating and weakening convective
inhibition should result in at least isolated storms developing
within confluence bands in the absence of any well-defined boundary.
A risk for hail and wind damage should accompany the stronger storms.


Quote of the day: Red Alert. Alter Course to intercept. Adjust shields to rotating frequencies. -Kathryn Janeway, Star Trek Voyager: Season 6 Epsiode 16: Collective

Song of the day: Can Can (used in The Definitive Voyager Torpedo Inventory Log



Debbie certainly looks to be building her core up. Thats as moist and symmetrical as shes been since the get go. I do hope the Aussies are prepared down there. Very large eye. 20-30Mi? Gotta be getting close to 120 knots. Thats gonna be a large swath of high wind and surge potentially.

twc just interviewed a storm chaser. waiting for the eye of debbie.
SSD had Debbie at 115 Kts

20170327 | 1130 | SW-PAC | 5.0 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | -19.6 | -149.8 | 927 | 115 | 13P | DEBBIE | 1 | VK
re 173 barbamz

If I were Michael Mann, I would seriously consider blowing them off, considering how Lamar Smith has treated him in the past!
Here are some of the 9:30 EST images of Debbie from the Himawari Satt:

AustraliaAustralia
Quoting 199. StormTrackerScott:

WOW! Big time sub surface warming beneath Nino's 1&2, and Nino 3. We have to see if this builds westward across the Pacific. Also the second graph below is still showing cooling at an incredible rate across the Indian Ocean and the MDR. All of these factors will likely lead to a strong El-Nino later in the year and one that is focused near South America.







chill out of the EL Nino a warm pool dos not mean we will see a strong EL Nino later this year
hi all


i will be hositing a blog party on my blog one last time be for we all moved over too the new site

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/thetwilightzone /one-last-blog--party
Quoting 187. Xandra:

Debbie has become a real beauty!


(saved loop)
C4 super cyclone
Quoting 207. ChiThom:

re 173 barbamz

If I were Michael Mann, I would seriously consider blowing them off, considering how Lamar Smith has treated him in the past!


Not Mann's style at all. He is a confronter, as I attended His Legal Symposium at the AGU conference in December.
Quoting 207. ChiThom:

re 173 barbamz

If I were Michael Mann, I would seriously consider blowing them off, considering how Lamar Smith has treated him in the past!

Political tribunal.
Mann and some others should actually prepare for exile (do not take chances: prepare).
Debbie, 2017-03-27 12:40 (UTC):

Screenshot/click to enlarge.
Source/latest imagery: RAMMB-CIRA/Himawari-8 (geocolor).

What a change in the space of 12 hours.
13P/MCYC/D/C4


LEVELING UP
Not sure if I have the most recent advisory from JTWC here (warning 6) but here is a portion of it on Debbie:
WTPS31 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13P (DEBBIE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 19.5S 150.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 150.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13P (DEBBIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL ATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY ORGANIZING SYSTEM WITH A RESURGENCE IN
DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER, THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A 16 NM
RAGGED EYE, AND SUPPORTS THE CURRENT JTWC BEST TRACK POSITION WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED BY
AGENCY DVORAKS OF T5.0 AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AROUND 90
KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH IMPROVED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT, RADIAL
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29C) SSTS.
TC DEBBIE HAS BEEN TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD BETWEEN THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A NER AND A STR TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE SHARED STEERING INFLUENCE OF BOTH FEATURES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD, MAINTAINING A PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWESTWARD
TRAJECTORY. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL TC
DEBBIE MAKES LANDFALL, BETWEEN TAU 12 AND 24, ALLOWING FOR STEADY TO
RAPID INTENSIFICATION. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INLAND, THE FRICTIONAL
EFFECTS OF RUGGED TERRAIN WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE CYCLONE LEADING TO
ITS COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN
GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 272100Z AND 280900Z.//
NNNN
Can someone send me the Disqus link for WU to sign up; having trouble finding it on the site........Thanks in advance.


Extreme weather events linked to climate change impact on the jet stream
A'ndrea Elyse Messer
March 27, 2017


UNIVERSITY PARK, Pa. — Unprecedented summer warmth and flooding, forest fires, drought and torrential rain — extreme weather events are occurring more and more often, but now an international team of climate scientists has found a connection between many extreme weather events and the impact climate change is having on the jet stream.

"We came as close as one can to demonstrating a direct link between climate change and a large family of extreme recent weather events," said Michael Mann, distinguished professor of atmospheric science and director, Earth System Science Center, Penn State. "Short of actually identifying the events in the climate models."

The unusual weather events that piqued the researchers' interest are things such as the 2003 European heat wave, the 2010 Pakistan flood and Russian heatwave, the 2011 Texas and Oklahoma heat wave and drought and the 2015 California wildfires.

The researchers looked at a combination of roughly 50 climate models from around the world that are part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), which is part of the World Climate Research Programme. These models are run using specific scenarios and producing simulated data that can be evaluated across the different models. However, while the models are useful for examining large-scale climate patterns and how they are likely to evolve over time, they cannot be relied on for an accurate depiction of extreme weather events. That is where actual observations prove critical.

The researchers looked at the historical atmospheric observations to document the conditions under which extreme weather patterns form and persist. These conditions occur when the jet stream, a global atmospheric wave of air that encompasses the Earth, becomes stationary and the peaks and troughs remain locked in place.

"Most stationary jet stream disturbances, however, will dissipate over time," said Mann. "Under certain circumstances the wave disturbance is effectively constrained by an atmospheric wave guide, something similar to the way a coaxial cable guides a television signal. Disturbances then cannot easily dissipate, and very large amplitude swings in the jet stream north and south can remain in place as it rounds the globe."

This constrained configuration of the jet stream is like a rollercoaster with high peaks and valleys, but only forms when there are six, seven or eight pairs of peaks and valleys surrounding the globe. The jet stream can then behave as if there is a waveguide — uncrossable barriers in the north and south — and a wave with large peaks and valleys can occur.

"If the same weather persists for weeks on end in one region, then sunny days can turn into a serious heat wave and drought, and lasting rains can lead to flooding," said Stefan Rahmstorf, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Germany.

The structure of the jet stream relates to its latitude and the temperature gradient from north to south. Temperatures typically have the steepest gradients in mid-latitudes and a strong circumpolar jet stream arises. However, when these temperature gradients decrease in just the right way, a weakened "double peak" jet stream arises with the strongest jet stream winds located to the north and south of the mid-latitudes.

"The warming of the Arctic, the polar amplification of warming, plays a key role here," said Mann. "The surface and lower atmosphere are warming more in the Arctic than anywhere else on the globe. That pattern projects onto the very temperature gradient profile that we identify as supporting atmospheric waveguide conditions."

Theoretically, standing jet stream waves with large amplitude north/south undulations should cause unusual weather events.

"We don't trust climate models yet to predict specific episodes of extreme weather because the models are too coarse," said study co-author Dim Coumou of PIK. "However, the models do faithfully reproduce large scale patterns of temperature change," added co-author Kai Kornhuber of PIK.

The researchers looked at real-world observations and confirmed that this temperature pattern does correspond with the double-peaked jet stream and waveguide patter associated with persistent extreme weather events in the late spring and summer such as droughts, floods and heat waves. They found the pattern has become more prominent in both observations and climate model simulations.

"Using the simulations, we demonstrate that rising greenhouse gases are responsible for the increase," said Mann.

The researchers noted in today's (Mar. 27) issue of Scientific Report that "Both the models and observations suggest this signal has only recently emerged from the background noise of natural variability."

"We are now able to connect the dots when it comes to human-caused global warming and an array of extreme recent weather events," said Mann.

While the models do not reliably track individual extreme weather events, they do reproduce the jet stream patterns and temperature scenarios that in the real world lead to torrential rain for days, weeks of broiling sun and absence of precipitation.

"Currently we have only looked at historical simulations," said Mann. "What's up next is to examine the model projections of the future and see what they imply about what might be in store as far as further increases in extreme weather are concerned."

Also working on this project was Sonya K. Miller, programmer analyst, Penn State; and Byron A. Steinman, assistant professor Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences and Large Lakes Observatory, University of Minnesota: Duluth.

SHARE THIS STORY
Quoting 218. weathermanwannabe:

Can someone send me the Disqus link for WU to sign up; having trouble finding it on the site........Thanks in advance.

This is the Disqus-site, founded by some WU-members, esp. aquak9:
https://disqus.com/home/channel/weatherundergroun d/

But you can sign up to Disqus anywhere where this tool is used in their comment-section - many news sites and blogs use Disqus, and there are many special Disqus-blogs as well. If you sign up to Disqus you can comment on all these sites immediately as well. And this could be exactly the problem as a tsunami of passerbies might flood into our future comment-section ... (I still hope WU could find a different solution for the comment section, sigh).
And don't forget to set your new account to "privacy" if you sign up.
6 more days be for we moved too the new site


James Reynolds just lost power at his place (see blue spot above), waiting for Debbie's eyewall, see his twitter feed.
Last year Norway registered it's first temperature above 20° C in March in history (two centuries or more). The record was set at 20.5° C if I remember correctly.
So today several stations have 21° C and now it is all normal, because yesterday the same thing happened topping out at a nationwide March max of 21.8° C.
March isn't over yet. Either.

Barrier Reef dead already?
Matthew and Otto have been retired by the WMO. They have been replaced with Martin and Owen.

Good job, Boyz at WMO. Catwing Island was destroyed by Matthew, but we saved the Catwings before Matthew hit.

So yay. And stuff. And stuff.
Scott we can't get a strong el niño every year.
Quoting 220. barbamz:


This is the Disqus-site, founded by some WU-members, esp. aquak9:
https://disqus.com/home/channel/weatherundergroun d/

But you can sign up to Disqus anywhere where this tool is used in their comment-section - many news sites and blogs use Disqus, and there are many special Disqus-blogs as well. If you sign up to Disqus you can comment on all these sites immediately as well. And this could be exactly the problem as a tsunami of passerbies might flood into our future comment-section ... (I still hope WU could find a different solution for the comment section, sigh).
And don't forget to set your new account to "privacy" if you sign up.


Is there a way for those of us that do not have a social media account to sign on to Disqus?

This site is the closest thing to social media that I belong to.
Quoting 228. ChillinInTheKeys:

Is there a way for those of us that do not have a social media account to sign on to Disqus?
This site is the closest thing to social media that I belong to.

Same for me. But you can sign up directly to Disqus by just using your e-mail.
BTW, that this WU blog will use Disqus in its comment section is so far just a conclusion in respect to an example what the future comment section will look like, given from our doc some weeks ago. I'm sure we'll get some special advice and introduction before the move will take place in some days.
Bowen Australia radar loop courtesy of Brian McNoldy.

Other loops
Quoting 229. barbamz:


BTW, that this WU blog will use Disqus in its comment section is so far just a conclusion in respect to an example what the future comment section will look like...

It's confirmed, get your diqus handles Cat6Commenters. There should be some more out about it all this week.

There is a bug associated with signing up to disqus if you aren't using another social media account. You can use e-mail but if it's an older type e-mail address it may not work. Those have to make a gmail or something a little more modern for it to work..
Great 3-day loop (posted below in post 230) showing the intensifying core and bands lashing the coast this morning...........As good as it gets once you have doppler radar, like in the US, with coastal coverage.


new ENSO update all NINO regions are cooling off this includes Nino 1+2

statement from CPC on said area

"... scenario of anomalously warm SSTs in the East Pacific (which very recently started cooling) that lack westward extension along the equator as would be anticipated based on previous warm El Nino-Southern Oscillation events. The anomalously warm SSTs in the East Pacific also appear predominantly surface driven, with little warm water available at depth."

latest Sub-Surface Anoms.



SSTA over past 7 days
large cooling in Nino 1+2 within past week as highlighted in back

Quoting 231. Skyepony:

It's confirmed, get your diqus handles Cat6Commenters. There should be some more out about it all this week.

Thanks, Skye!
Quoting 231. Skyepony:


It's confirmed, get your diqus handles Cat6Commenters. There should be some more out about it all this week.

There is a bug associated with signing up to disqus if you aren't using another social media account. You can use e-mail but if it's an older type e-mail address it may not work. Those have to make a gmail or something a little more modern for it to work..


I just signed up; did not realize that I had an open account with them already linked to my Facebook account with my real name; real easy to update, change the handle to WXManWannabee, and delete the real name and un-link the Facebook. Yall are my online family but my Facebook account, and real name, are reserved for actual family and friends (some going back to high school)............................. :)
Quoting 229. barbamz:


Same for me. But you can sign up directly to Disqus by just using your e-mail.
BTW, that this WU blog will use Disqus in its comment section is so far just a conclusion in respect to an example what the future comment section will look like, given from our doc some weeks ago. I'm sure we'll get some special advice and introduction before the move will take place in some days.




re: 228. ChillinInTheKeys
I use my real name for email, so before signing-up for disqus I created a new email name for myself. (To stay a little anonymous.) I don't do facemail or twits.
Quoting 235. weathermanwannabe:



I just signed up; did not realize that I had an open account with them already linked to my Facebook account with my real name; real easy to update, change the handle to WXManWannabee, and delete the real name and un-link the Facebook. Yall are my online family but my Facebook account, and real name, are reserved for actual family and friends (some going back to high school)............................. :)


I had exactly the same experience, and I also just changed my handle. Thanks to your post I checked and found that I was also linked to too FB, so I deleted the FB link.
Quoting 227. Gearsts:

Scott we can't get a strong el niño every year.


lol if were to leave it to scott 2015 El Nino would have continued into 2016 and this year will be the strongest on record and next year everything will be dead in the Pacific from the waters burning up

I mean yeah we will see an El Nino it may or may not be this year it maybe next year but jeez he's been riding the El Nino train way to long now... lol yeah that's one way to get t right one day/year he'll get it right
Bravo!
Went through the entire page on my phone and there's a lot of excellent weather and topic related posts.
A very refreashful change from the usual. I even appreciate Scott's enthusiasm on the El-Nino forecast.
Quoting 238. OviedoWatcher:



I had exactly the same experience, and I also just changed my handle. Thanks to your post I checked and found that I was also linked to too FB, so I deleted the FB link.


This whole modern day issue of Interlinking all of social media is a real problem if you want to maintain some privacy as noted below; seems the best way to communicate with any one these days is in person while whispering, preferably on a boat in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico, if you wanna keep things private..........................Everything you do online or say on a telephone or text is subject to interception and storage.....................................
on a WU note do I have get a Disqus account to continue on WU when it updates
Quoting 212. Patrap:



Not Mann's style at all. He is a confronter, as I attended His Legal Symposium at the AGU conference in December.


He has guts. But the tribunal he's facing are low life scum, reminiscent of the middle ages tribunals.
Based on the radar loop below, Hayman Island just off the coast is about to go through the edge of the eye wall of Debbie.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
.
I have a question about severe weather in central Texas on March 26th. Was watching a storm as it was building about 30-40 miles Northwest of Copperas Cove, Texas. I noticed a cold spot in the storm. That cold spot remain consistent as the storm approached me (about 8-10 miles East if Killeen, Texas). The radar kept showing rain in my area but no rain at all. I knew from my basic knowledge that the cold spot was going to put out hail. The way the wind was blowing and I got a glimpse of the sky in the lightning that the rain showing on radar was virga. We got the bottom edge of that storm and it hit hard with ping pong ball sized hail and a wall of rain. How does the cold spot I saw last so long? It's hard to tell how high that area was. I am not a pro but love the nature of the way the storms build around here (Texas and Okla). I'm just curious and I ask questions to learn.
Quoting 242. wunderkidcayman:

on a WU note do I have get a Disqus account to continue on WU when it updates

Yes.
If your looking for privacy on any social media. Your chasing yer own tail usually. If you have a credit card and a I phone, they know yer every movement..already.

We were doing social media here way before anyone.

But alas, all the comments, blogs and retorts, wu mails, 4356 for me,and 300 photos are now going extinct as the Wooly Mammoth come Monday.


We had a good run, now we will be run over with disqus bots beaucoup. They just awaiting for the switchover to begin the assault here. It is already n werks from many nutbag sites, WUWT esp.

So we will be bombarded with BS, deep dish derp,and the other right leaning Bullsharks.


I for one am sincerely DISAPPOINTED in How it has all went down with IBM at the wu helm as a Parent.

We were promised classic wu would remain forever, That promise was run over by a no name admin who was in way over His head then.

So we who have spent a decade or more writing blogs by the hundreds are now muted.

I've been going over the paid members legal contract words in the agreement. There are 7 violations that relate directly to that.

We have been tossed aside like a Happy meal container onto the freeway.

We all lose Monday coming.


Semper Fidelis


Quoting 231. Skyepony:


It's confirmed, get your diqus handles Cat6Commenters. There should be some more out about it all this week.

There is a bug associated with signing up to disqus if you aren't using another social media account. You can use e-mail but if it's an older type e-mail address it may not work. Those have to make a gmail or something a little more modern for it to work..
Any idea when they are going to put up the FAQs mentioned at the head of the blog? I just went there and could not find anything about signing up to Disqus or any other information about the transition except that it is going to happen April 3. Also, I did not know when I signed up at Disqus that there was an option to enable commenting on other sites, and now I do not see it available. I think it would help if WU would make available to all users the details of the procedures for participating in the comments section of the new blogs.