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August hurricane outlook

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:02 PM GMT on July 31, 2009

The Atlantic remains quiet today, with no threat areas to discuss and no models calling for tropical storm formation over the seven days. Not much has changed in the Atlantic since my mid-July Atlantic hurricane outlook posted two weeks ago. However, we are now at the cusp of when hurricane activity begins a steep rise (Figure 1). Early August is typically when wind shear begins a major decline, sea surface temperatures continue to rise, African dust and dry air outbreaks diminish, and the African Monsoon and Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) become quite active, spawning frequent and powerful tropical waves. These tropical waves serve as the instigators of about 85% of all major hurricanes.

Since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, ten out of fourteen years (71%) have had a named storm form during the first half of August, with an average of 1.4 named storms per year. The last nine years in a row have had a named storm form during the first half of August, but the previous four year stretch (1996 - 1999), did not have any storms form.


Figure 1. The seasonal distribution of Atlantic hurricane activity shows a steep rise at the beginning of August. Image credit: NHC.

Sea Surface Temperatures
Eighty-five percent of all major hurricanes form in the Main Development Region (MDR) of the Atlantic, from the coast of Africa to the coast of Central America, between 10° and 20° latitude. This region also spawns 60% of all weaker hurricanes and tropical storms. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies in the MDR have slowly but steadily risen during July, and now stand at a respectable 0.5°C (0.9°F) above average (Figure 2). SSTs are well below the record levels observed in 2005 and 2006, when they were up to 2°C above average over large portions of the Main Development Region. Still, there is plenty of heat energy available for strong hurricanes to form this year. The strength of the Azores-Bermuda high has been below average over the past month, driving below average trade winds. Weaker trade winds don't mix up as much cold water from the depths, and cause less evaporative cooling. The latest 2-week run of the GFS model predicts continued slightly below average-strength trade winds through mid-August, so SST anomalies should continue to warm during this period.


Figure 2. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for July 30, 2009. SSTs were about 0.5°C (0.9°F) above average over the tropical Atlantic's Main Development region for hurricanes, from Africa to Central America between 10° and 20° North Latitude. Note the large region of above average SSTs along the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America, the hallmark of an El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS

El Niño
El Niño conditions have remained steady over the tropical Eastern Pacific over the past month. Ocean temperatures in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niño 3.4 region", remain at 0.8°C above average, which is 0.3°C above the threshold for a weak El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (Figure 3). An increase of another 0.2°C would push the current El Niño into the "moderate" category. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Advisory earlier this month, and predicts that El Niño conditions will intensify over the next few months, and last through the coming winter. The latest set of mid-July runs of the El Niño computer models are almost universally calling for El Niño conditions to remain well-established for the peak months of hurricane season, August - October. It is likely that Atlantic hurricane activity will be suppressed in 2009 due to the strong upper-level winds and resulting wind shear an El Niño event usually brings to the tropical Atlantic. The NOAA CFS model is calling for continued above-average wind shear over most of the tropical Atlantic for the August-September-October peak part of hurricane season.


Figure 3. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for the the equatorial Eastern Pacific (the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niño 3.4 region"). El Niño conditions exist when the SST in this region rises 0.5°C above average. As of July 31, 2009, SSTs in the Niño 3.4 region had risen to 0.83°C above average. To be considered an "El Niño episode", El Niño conditions must occur for five consecutive months, using 3-month averages. Image credit: Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

Wind shear
Wind shear is usually defined as the difference in wind between 200 mb (roughly 40,000 foot altitude) and 850 mb (roughly 5,000 foot altitude). In most circumstances, wind shear above 20 knots will act to inhibit tropical storm formation. Wind shear below 12 knots is very conducive for tropical storm formation. High wind shear acts to tear a storm apart. The jet stream's band of strong high-altitude winds is the main source of wind shear in July over the Atlantic hurricane breeding grounds, but in August the jet stream retreats to the north, and wind shear typically falls.

Wind shear over the past month (Figure 4) has mostly been above average over the tropical Atlantic, particularly over the Caribbean. The presence of El Niño conditions over the tropical Eastern Pacific may be primarily responsible for this enhanced shear. However, wind shear has been slowly falling over the southern portion of the Caribbean and southern MDR over the past week, and is forecast by the GFS model to fall to near-average levels by mid-August. This should present a more favorable environment for hurricanes to form in by mid-month.


Figure 4. Departure of wind shear from average in m/s for the 1-month period ending July 27, 2009. Higher than average wind shear (blue colors) was observed over the Caribbean. The El Niño conditions over the tropical Eastern Pacific may be primarily responsible for this enhanced shear. Image credit: NOAA Climate Prediction Center.

Dry air and African dust
June and July are the peak months for dust coming off the coast of Africa, and the Saharan dust storms have been quite active over the past month. Expect dust from Africa to diminish in the coming month, allowing a greater chance for African tropical waves to develop.

Steering currents
The steering current pattern has remained virtually the same all summer. A persistent trough of low pressure has remained entrenched over the Eastern U.S., bringing cool and relatively moist weather to the northeastern portion of the country. This trough is strong enough to recurve any tropical storms or hurricanes that might penetrate north of the Caribbean Sea. Steering current patterns are predictable only about 3 - 5 days in the future, although we can make very general forecasts about the pattern as much as two weeks in advance. At present, it appears that the coming two weeks will maintain the strong trough over the Eastern U.S., which decreases the hurricane risk to the U.S. Gulf Coast. It is often difficult to break a months-long steering current pattern like the current one, and it's reasonable to forecast that the current steering pattern will continue to dominate into September.

Summary
Recent history suggests a 71% chance of a named storm occurring in the first half of August. However, this is not a typical year. The ITCZ has been remarkably inactive, and there have been an unusually low number of tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa. Although SST anomalies should continue to rise and wind shear should slowly fall over the next few weeks, the computer models suggest no significant changes to the current inactive weather pattern. I'll go with a 30% chance of a named storm forming in the first half of August.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting mobilegirl81:
all of the moisture out ahead of it in the ITCZ might fight off the dry air or possibly be absorbed by what could be a tropical depression tomorrow morning.


There is no way that this becomes a depression by tomorrow morning. Too many things would have to happen in a period of 12 hours.
I'm going with the traditional 71% in the first half of August. I think the ocean and atmosphere is ready.
Sorry everyone, the comment limit bug is fixed. You should be able to make comments in here again.
Thank you very much, Administrator.
2006. Drakoen
Thanks!
Aaaaahhhhh, I'm back, home sweet home, eh Drak? :)
Quoting WundergroundDevs:
Sorry everyone, the comment limit bug is fixed. You should be able to make comments in here again.

Thanks.
Quoting WundergroundDevs:
Sorry everyone, the comment limit bug is fixed. You should be able to make comments in here again.



i did not even think any one was there this late at night
Quoting Tazmanian:



i did not even think any one was there this late at night

haha you would be surprised. people are here round the clock.
2011. Drakoen
Quoting WeatherStudent:
Aaaaahhhhh, I'm back, home sweet home, eh Drak? :)


Thank God
Quoting WundergroundDevs:
Sorry everyone, the comment limit bug is fixed. You should be able to make comments in here again.
thanks admin for the fix
Quoting WundergroundDevs:
Sorry everyone, the comment limit bug is fixed. You should be able to make comments in here again.


Thanks

Can you open the pod bay doors too?
Aaahh, all fixed. Now if we could just get the 00Z surface map to match the observations..
It won't do anything until it seperates itself from the ITZ......in order to do that it must move North some.....if it move North very much then it encounters colder SST's and wind Shear increases......Both will still be ok for slow development......but these are the facts!
Quoting tennisgirl08:
I think I have solved the anemic hurricane season crisis of 2009 - THE NAMES!!

2009 Hurricane Names
Ana
Bill
Claudette
Danny
Erika
Fred
Grace
Henri
Ida
Joaquin
Kate
Larry
Mindy
Nicholas
Odette
Peter
Rose
Sam
Teresa
Victor
Wanda

Most of the stronger storms have had scary names - and the names for 2009 are NOT scary - I mean really, Grace or Rose. Come on!!

Ike, Gustav, Ivan, Katrina are scary, strong names.

Ok - I am really joking, but does any one want to take a guess as to which name will produce the first hurricane of the season??

My guess - Erika.


First hurricane? Bill.

Strongest storm of the season? Danny.
Looks like the rain that was supressing sal earliar in the season is losing its effect. Are sal levels still lower than average or higher now?
Quoting Drakoen:


Thank God


Indeed.
2009 Hurricane Names
Ana
Bill
Claudette
Danny
Erika
Fred
Grace
Henri
Ida
Joaquin
Kate
Larry
Mindy
Nicholas
Odette
Peter
Rose
Sam
Teresa
Victor
Wanda

does any one want to take a guess as to which name will produce the first hurricane of the season??

My guess - Erika.

If it was a Hurricane named Grace that made landfall somewhere that would be pretty bad!!
2021. 7544
hi all does the wave by the islands have a shot to develope also
tennis girl Hurricane "Cute" would be considerd a scarey name if it was a cat 5 and did a lot of damage.
Quoting 7544:
hi all does the wave by the islands have a shot to develope also


No.
Quoting Vortex95:
tennis girl Hurricane "Cute" would be considerd a scarey name if it was a cat 5 and did a lot of damage.


I get your point! I was just joking by the way. Any guesses??
2025. 7544
Quoting KoritheMan:


No.


thanks
7544. I'd say none but even lower would be Draks chances of listinign to baramator bob whomever that is.
If Ana doesn't produce a Hurricane, my bets are on a Hurricane Bill.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
If Ana doesn't produce a Hurricane, my bets are on a Hurricane Bill.


I'm interested in seeing if this year's incarnation of Bill makes a Louisiana landfall -- Bob in 1979 did, as did 2003's Bill. Bill is its replacement name. Danny in 1985 and 1997 also made Louisiana landfall, as did Juan in 1985. Elena came close, too.

Louisiana has had a bad history with this naming list.
Thanks for the blog fix. I actually hope it does not happen again.

Also, after last night I'm a bit discourage by the blogs. I tried to fix an argument on the blog last night and that led to something else. A matter of fact, some very hurtful things were said about me on a particular blog pertaining to my ethnic backgorund. It was fun having you all but I didnt intended all this to happen.
Come on Keeper~ Resistance is already futile~ Ya blow it up that big & I'll never go to sleep..
Ida replaced Isabel, Isabel devastated my home area in Virgina when I lived there. My bets are on Ida. Plus it seems to fit,
Irene ,Issac, Iris, Isidore, Isabel, Ivan, Ike, and Ida.
KOG :P
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Keeps, LOL! What's up with that enlarged image, my friend? The admin's watching y'all, so watch out. He's got an eye on you. ROFL, LMAO. Good one, Keeper!!!
Quoting Weather456:
Thanks for fix. I actually hope it does not happen again.

Also, after last night I'm a bit discourage by the blogs. I tried to fix an argument on the blog last night and that led to something else. A matter of fact, some very hurtful things were said about me on a particular blog pertaining to ethnic backgorund. It was good having you all but I didnt intended all this to happen.


Don't get discouraged! Put them on ignore!!
You are a great blogger!
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Ida replaced Isabel, Isabel devastated my home area in Virgina when I lived there. My bets are on Ida. Plus it seems to fit,
Irene ,Issac, Iris, Isidore, Isabel, Ivan, Ike, and Ida.


Indeed, the "I" storms always seem to be among the deadliest and most destructive of Atlantic hurricanes.
456 u mean fix as in stop right?
Quoting Skyepony:
Come on Keeper~ Resistance is already futile~ Ya blow it up that big & I'll never go to sleep..


That's what she said.

*runs*
2039. 7544
well if you follow the gfs looks like things will start get active the 3 rd week in augest so we could see 4 name storms in the month of aug alone .
Nite everyone will do an update tomorrow a.m....NITE
Quoting tennisgirl08:


Don't get discouraged! Put them on ignore!!
You are a great blogger!


Absolutely! Although the ethnic insult was tremendously uncalled for, talk about a new low, geeze.
Background of names and meaning of names:

Ekaterina (Katya, Katerina)
from Old Greek word "katarios" means "chaste"

Elena (Lena, Helen)
from Old Greek. Probably means "peculiar"

Erika - Norse meaning "eternal ruler" - SCARY!!



Quoting KoritheMan:


That's what she said.

*runs*


Wow...
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Wow...


What?

>_>

<_<

*runs again*
2045. Drakoen
Quoting KoritheMan:


That's what she said.

*runs*


WoW...
Quoting KoritheMan:


What?

>_>

<_<

*runs again*


It was uncalled for I guess.

Ah well..it doesnt matter since there really isnt a discussion going on here.
Quoting Drakoen:


WoW...


WoW sucks. Hell, MMORPGs in general suck.
Quoting KoritheMan:


What?

>_>

<_<

*runs again*


LMAO!!!!
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


It was uncalled for I guess.

Ah well..it doesnt matter since there really isnt a discussion going on here.


Why did you get rid of the childish part? I completely agree with that.

I don't see anything wrong with a little humor, childish or not, here and there, though.

Besides, it stirred the blog a bit. :P
Quoting tennisgirl08:


LMAO!!!!


:)
Quoting KoritheMan:


Why did you get rid of the childish part? I completely agree with that.

I don't see anything wrong with a little humor, childish or not, here and there, though.

Besides, it stirred the blog a bit. :P


Because I dont want anything to start again...

Its not that big of a deal as I said.

I just wasnt expecting that. lol
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Because I dont want anything to start again...

Its not that big of a deal as I said.

I just wasnt expecting that. lol


Trust me man, I'm mature enough to not lose my cool over something stupid. My philosophy is, if you can't have tough skin on the internet (which, despite the ridiculous fad that it's "serious business", it really isn't), then how are you ever going to deal with the harshness of reality?
Meaning of the name Ida - "hardworking"

This storm, if named, will never die or will defy odds of going POOF - even though many wunderbloggers will downcast her!

Meaning of the name Erika - "eternal ruler"
This may be a major hurricane!!
Quoting tennisgirl08:
Meaning of the name Ida - "hardworking"

This storm, if named, will never die or will defy odds of going POOF - even though many wunderbloggers will downcast her!

Meaning of the name Erika - "eternal ruler"
This may be a major hurricane!!


Like Cyber, I am interested to see if Ida makes a North Carolina landfall like Isabel in 2003 did.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Trust me man, I'm mature enough to not lose my cool over something stupid. My philosophy is, if you can't have tough skin on the internet, which, despite the ridiculous fad that it's "serious business", then how are you ever going to deal with the harshness of reality?


Well thats good.

Anyways the CV low isnt doing that great. Kind of hard to make out
Okay - on to boy names.

The boy's name Fred \f-red\, also used as girl's name Fred, is a variant of Alfred (Old English) and Frederick (Old German), and the meaning of Fred is "elf or magical counsel; peaceful ruler".

Peaceful ruler?? This brings back bad memories of 1979 with Frederic - NOT PEACEFUL!!
I wonder if Fred, if named this year, would hit the Northern gulf coast - like Frederic.
Quoting tennisgirl08:
Okay - on to boy names.

The boy's name Fred \f-red\, also used as girl's name Fred, is a variant of Alfred (Old English) and Frederick (Old German), and the meaning of Fred is "elf or magical counsel; peaceful ruler".

Peaceful ruler?? This brings back bad memories of 1979 with Frederic - NOT PEACEFUL!!
I wonder if Fred, if named this year, would hit the Northern gulf coast - like Frederic.


Fred also reminds me of Freddy the serial killer. >_>
Maybe one of these will finally start things up...
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Maybe one of these will finally start things up...


Why, are you doubting the possibility of tropical cyclogenesis with the CV area?
Quoting KoritheMan:


Why, are you doubting the possibility of tropical cyclogenesis with the CV area?

Its deeply embedded in the ITCZ..it needs to lift north. If it does lift north then it will encounter a very stable environment and SAL. Shear also doesnt look that conductive as well. Not writing it off but just not sure its likely to develop.


Just sitting in the ITCZ.


2061. Drakoen
CMC 00z is slightly more aggressive than the previous runs
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Maybe one of these will finally start things up...


The other waves will have much more SAL and dust to deal with. This one has more of a chance, in my opinion!!
00z gfs pretty much dropped it.i say it fizzles by this time tommorrow it will be an open wave of scattered blob
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Its deeply embedded in the ITCZ..it needs to lift north. If it does lift north then it will encounter a very stable environment and SAL. Shear also doesnt look that conductive as well.


The models have been consistent in calling for generally favorable shear, at least in the short-term. Longer term, an upper-level trough may induce stronger vertical shearing, essentially halting the development (or intensification, if we indeed have a tropical cyclone by that time) process.

I agree that SAL is very prohibitive, and that appears to be the main factor mitigating against development.

Also, I don't know if I have seen anyone mention this over the last 24 hours, but it is very important: this disturbance, being fully embedded within an active ITCZ, likely has most, if not all of its moisture primarily associated with the ITCZ.

Bearing that in mind, even if it eventually manages to detach itself from the ITCZ, SAL will very likely hinder development, particularly if the disturbance is far enough away from the ITCZ as to not be able to feed off the broad moisture field associated with it.
Quoting Drakoen:
CMC 00z is slightly more aggressive than the previous runs


Not much but its there.

Quoting Drakoen:
CMC 00z is slightly more aggressive than the previous runs


Link??
Quoting KoritheMan:


The models have been consistent in calling for generally favorable shear, at least in the short-term. Longer term, an upper-level trough may induce stronger vertical shearing, essentially halting the development (or intensification, if we indeed have a tropical cyclone by that time) process.

I agree that SAL is very prohibitive, and that appears to be the main factor mitigating against development.

Also, I don't know if I have seen anyone mention this over the last 24 hours, but it is very important: this disturbance, being fully embedded within an active ITCZ, likely has most, if not all of its moisture primarily associated with the ITCZ.

Bearing that in mind, even if it eventually manages to detach itself from the ITCZ, SAL will very likely hinder development, particularly if the disturbance is far enough away from the ITCZ as to not be able to feed off the broad moisture field associated with it.


Exactly, thats why I feel it wont develop.
Quoting tennisgirl08:


Link??


Link
Quoting tennisgirl08:


Link??


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
Development as early as later 2night

2071. 7544
Quoting Weather456:
Development as early as later 2night

\\

hmm interesting that was fast
2072. Drakoen
Nothing on the NOGAPS or UKKMET 00z. Broad low at best.
Quoting Weather456:
Development as early as later 2night



Really?? Still need more models onboard, right?
Over the last few days, the models seem to be much more interested in this "disturbance" than any others prior that have come off Africa. So, what makes this "disturbance", that is embedded in the ITCZ, and that the NHC barely mentions - so interesting??
Quoting Weather456:
Development as early as later 2night



What about potential track wise thus far, 456?
Quoting tennisgirl08:


Really?? Still need more models onboard, right?


as of 12Z, GFS, UKMET, ECMWF and UKMET.

as of 00Z GFS, CMC, waiting on the ohters.


But thats per the models. I don't it will develop that soon.


But based on the model support, the improvement in organizaion since leaving africa, and the enviroment - some slow chance of development possible.
Eh...

We'll see what happens tomorrow.
2078. Drakoen
It's got a ton of work to do. I don't see anything substantial on the GFS until Wednesday.
2079. msphar
So we've got peace in the CATL for now ? Good. Looking forward to a quiet week.
Just one question:

What about disturbance at 50W north-east of Surinam, last images it seems interesting?
Boring is good. Boring means that no one gets hurt...not even fish or sailors on ships at sea. May this whole season be as boring.
good morning
the only area of interest in the tropics is an area of disturbed weather in the far eastern atlantic. the area southwest of the cape verde islands has managed to keep it's convection ,while moving southwestand away from the SAL. the structure of the system has improved since leaving africa. by all accounts the system is in a favoured area for slow development.as it tracks westward. most of the global models are hinting of development, but my take is that there will be slow development until about wednesday. if the system can build more convection i suspect that we could have TD2 by wed/thurs. the track will be west because the system will be a weak one until it gets a few hundred miles east of the islands. all in all the system needs to be monitored.
the area of precip north of the greater antillias is part of that long amplitude wave that has been crosing the atlantic doubt it will develop but it is something to watch
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Not much but its there.



Yes..he is right.

Check this out

Quoting leftovers:
the area of precip north of the greater antillias is part of that long amplitude wave that has been crosing the atlantic doubt it will develop but it is something to watch


Thks leftovers. Also 2 waves coming from West Africa at 28w and 18w are interesing to watch.
2088. IKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
454 AM AST MON AUG 3 2009

.DISCUSSION...A PASSING TROPICAL WAVE BROUGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT. SO FAR...VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS AFFECTED THE
LOCAL ISLANDS THEMSELVES...HOWEVER A SECOND AREA OF MOISTURE
MOVING ACROSS TNCM THIS MORNING...WILL LIKELY BRING A FURTHER
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EXPECT THE TUTT LOW TO OUR NORTH TO
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD...RESULTING IN FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR CONVECTIVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. ALREADY HAVE SEEN GOOD ENHANCEMENT OF AN AREA OF SHOWERS
JUST NORTH OF 20N THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THIS SINKING TUTT
LOW...AND EXPECT THIS MORE FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT TO
REACH PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY PATCHY MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...EXPECT
THE BEST SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 40 WEST THIS MORNING...WILL
BRING A DEEPER SURGE IN MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK.
very few thunderstorms associated with the tropical wave looks like its getting better organized
2090. IKE
...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25N42W 20N42W 16N40W
12N38W 6N38W 6N36W MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE. AN UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 28N43W...SLIGHTLY TO THE
WEST OF THIS WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE GOES FROM 30 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TRINIDAD...
ACROSS TRINIDAD...TO 15N65W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS
WESTERN PUERTO RICO INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 22N68W...MOVING
WEST ABOUT 15 KT. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALSO IS NEARLY
COINCIDENTAL WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ABOUT 270 NM TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT 60 NM TO
THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. IT MAY NOT BE EASY TO DETERMINE IF THIS
PRECIPITATION IS RELATED MORE TO THE WAVE OR MORE TO THE TROUGH.

A TROPICAL WAVE GOES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
22N92W INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...MOVING WEST ABOUT
15 KT. THE DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS IN THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC SIX HOURS AGO HAS DISSIPATED. ANY PRECIPITATION
THAT HAD BEEN FALLING IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE
LAST 24 HOURS OR SO PROBABLY WAS MORE RELATED TO AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAN TO THIS TROPICAL WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

MORE OR LESS ALONG 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12.5N TO 14N
BETWEEN 17W AND 18W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS OF 9N28W...AND FROM 10N
TO 11N BETWEEN 45W AND 46W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 16N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.
Did anyone see this at the end of the loop??
Link

2092. IKE
Quoting AussieStorm:
Did anyone see this at the end of the loop??
Link



Yup...futuremet linked it in post 2086.
2093. WxLogic
Morning...
2094. IKE
Apparently the NHC isn't impressed...

64th day of the season.
119 to go....
35% of the season is over, time wise...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
Quoting IKE:


Yup...futuremet linked it in post 2086.

My bad. But its interesting?
Good morning eveyone. I hope everyone got a good night sleep...lol
Exect you Aussie. Good evening
Will we get 2 Canes or will they tear each other up or possible Fujiwara Effect.


FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA HAVE INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
Quoting ALCoastGambler:
Good morning eveyone. I hope everyone got a good night sleep...lol
Exect you Aussie. Good evening

Good Evening/Morning.
2099. IKE
Quoting AussieStorm:

My bad. But its interesting?


If it comes true.
Hopefully NAM 06Z is correct. The NAM expects a tropical wave to bring some nice rain to FL.
look like the cape verde train is finally getting started
We will see an Andrewish pattern for the majority of August. A strong trough over the western central Atlantic, and a strong high over the eastern U.S. It is possible a tropical cyclone may follow a track like Andrew under the influence of such steering currents.
Quoting IKE:


If it comes true.

True
2104. IKE
Look at the continued shear(road blocks) in the Caribbean and north of 18 north, east of the islands. To me it's El Nino. Plus the east-PAC is soon to have more systems....

2105. Ossqss
I wonder if we will ever find a verifiable correlation with sunspots and cyclones. Seems to be something folks looked at much more, long ago. Currently, no activity. Here is an old article and a newer one for entertainment. I think there is more to the story than we currently understand. No excessively techincal ones this morning :P

Old, Old stuff


the-case-of-the-missing-sun-spots
Just catching up on my email - I had missed this one from the other day - not sure if anyone else saw it.

NORTH CAROLINA
Preliminary Earthquake Report Magnitude 3.2 M
Date-Time 08:38:26 EDT
35.061N 84.290W
2107. IKE
Curious as to why no invests listed on the twins on the East-Pac?
Quoting IKE:
Curious as to why no invests listed on the twins on the East-Pac?


It is probably one of those shadow-invests lik 95 and 96L
God Morning,

Those twin EPAC cyclones and Lana are signs of the MJO. We're next.
Quoting IKE:
Curious as to why no invests listed on the twins on the East-Pac?


Invests are typically classified when the model runs are initiated...so I'd look for invests within the next 45 minutes.
Quoting Weather456:
God Morning,

Those twin EPAC cyclones and Lana are signs of the MJO. We're next.


Good morning Weather, Thanks again for letting us hang out with you last night during the mishap on Dr. M's page.
Anyone notice the stationary convection at about 30N 80W?

Link

Just a stationary thunderstorm?
Interesting lol



good morning everyone.
Jasonisuncoolman10

You better behave with your knew handle, or you'll be banned for good this time.
EP 98 2009080312 BEST 0 129N 1115W 25 0 DB
456. i am in total agreement with your analysis. i did indicate the same in my earlier comments. somehow i still believe that the system will be a TD/ WEAK TS by the time it reaches the islands on the weekend
Active wave across the atl last night looks less organized this morning likly due to sal in the vicinity.
Quoting IKE:
Look at the continued shear(road blocks) in the Caribbean and north of 18 north, east of the islands. To me it's El Nino. Plus the east-PAC is soon to have more systems....



Ike this is a pretty typical sign of el nino with fast westerlies across most of the caribbean and gom no suprise there.
EP 99 2009080312 BEST 0 100N 1208W 25 0 DB
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
EP 98 2009080312 BEST 0 129N 1115W 25 0 DB



did they for get 97E???
Quoting Tazmanian:



did they for get 97E???


invest_RENUMBER_ep972009_ep062009.ren


Lana
Good Morning All.........Other than the wave now just past the CV islands (that while holding on to convection is still embedded in the ITCZ as noted by 456 and others), it's pretty much crystal clear out there (and very dry in the Central Atlantic). Hate late starting seasons because of the potential for a real big storm out of the blocks...Again, and in terms of historical/analog comparisons, the average start date of an August season is August 14th..........Let's see what will happen over the next two weeks.
the potential for hyper activity in the eastern atlantic is very evident as the waves line up over africa


Morning looks pacific has some activity.
oops nevere mine i this look what we had last


round 1


90E bust

91E bust

92E be comes TD 1E


93E be comes ANDRES

94E be comes BLANCA

95E be comes CARLOS

96E be comes DOLORES

97E be comes LANA


97E was LANA
98E has a good CH of becomeing name 1st be for 99E i say 99E has too move a way a little more be for it can do some in


seems developed, any sugest track?
moistureladenseas
We know too well what The Mighty Atlantic is capable of delivering!
And here come's another one... forpetesake
We know too well what The Mighty Atlantic is capable of delivering
We know too well what The Mighty Atlantic is capable of delivering!

Chicklit. Is it my imagination or am I seeing some mid-level cloud rotatation at 9N 52W? Look at the visible as well.
Monday, August 17th...hmmmmmm

Anyone care to outline the major factors preventing development and the forecast of them now and during the next 2 weeks? Thanks...
look around 35-40West in a few days for possible development that is an area that CV systems tend to get going.
Quoting clwstmchasr:
We know too well what The Mighty Atlantic is capable of delivering!

Chicklit. Is it my imagination or am I seeing some mid-level cloud rotatation at 9N 52W? Look at the visible as well.

Great swing clw...yeah, there's some rotation there as well. But as Ike pointed out, Shear is set up as a nice 'roadblock' in the Caribbean. Of course, the problem is, after that there is wave after wave and another one is about to come off Cape Verde at maybe a higher latitude. As 456 said, they have to break out of the ITCZ and then there's the MJO pattern predicted to change. But also there's a new burst of SAL from CV, so that would inhibit a higher lat. wave. Hopefully, Dr. Masters will address all of this in his blog promised for today.
2139. cg2916
Looks like the Pacific calls for more attention than the Atlantic. That wave looks like it won't make it, in my opinion. Now, if 9L is the one on the right, I think that it will develop before 99L, but who knows?

I'm surprised by how much the models pick up on activity due to the MJO. Although the MJO DOES help activity pick up. It looks like to me that the main reason it's been so quiet lately is because tropical waves die out before they get a chance due to the SAL, and maybe the MJO will change that.
2140. IKE
Last Update: 3-AUG-2009 09:00am EDT

Although it may seem like the Atlantic hurricane season is off to a slow start when compared to recent years, the average date of development for the season's first hurricane is Aug. 14. Though most of the Atlantic Basin is free of activity, there are a few tropical waves we are watching.

There are just two tropical waves are located near 38 west and 63 west. The tropical wave along 38 west has only a few showers and thunderstorms along its southern edge. The rest of the wave is embedded with a deep layer of Saharan dust that is preventing showers and thunderstorms from developing. This area of Saharan dust will travel westward toward the Caribbean, preventing development of any system in the tropical Atlantic for the next few days.

The tropical wave along 63 west is even less organized and only has a handful of showers associated with it. This wave is not expected to enhance shower and thunderstorm activity in the Caribbean as it passes through today and tomorrow.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Mike Pigott..........


What happened to the "wave" accuweather had further east of 38W? The one everyone in here is following? I guess it wasn't a wave after all.....NHC never had it as a wave.
Wave nearing 30W continues to become better organize.



Is there any chance what's off the coast of Georgia and South Carolina could develop?
Quoting mikatnight:
Monday, August 17th...hmmmmmm



Of course, it was a Sunday night - going on through Monday morning - on another August 17th, a long long time ago...Camille.
Quoting IKE:
Last Update: 3-AUG-2009 09:00am EDT

Although it may seem like the Atlantic hurricane season is off to a slow start when compared to recent years, the average date of development for the season's first hurricane is Aug. 14. Though most of the Atlantic Basin is free of activity, there are a few tropical waves we are watching.

There are just two tropical waves are located near 38 west and 63 west. The tropical wave along 38 west has only a few showers and thunderstorms along its southern edge. The rest of the wave is embedded with a deep layer of Saharan dust that is preventing showers and thunderstorms from developing. This area of Saharan dust will travel westward toward the Caribbean, preventing development of any system in the tropical Atlantic for the next few days.

The tropical wave along 63 west is even less organized and only has a handful of showers associated with it. This wave is not expected to enhance shower and thunderstorm activity in the Caribbean as it passes through today and tomorrow.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Mike Pigott..........


What happened to the "wave" accuweather had further east of 38W? The one everyone in here is following? I guess it wasn't a wave after all.....NHC never had it as a wave.


looks like something is near 30W if not a wave just ITCZ??
Quoting AussieStorm:
Will we get 2 Canes or will they tear each other up or possible Fujiwara Effect.


FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA HAVE INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 TO 50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

How do you post that TWO...i've been trying ever since i joined WU.
Quoting IKE:
Last Update: 3-AUG-2009 09:00am EDT

Although it may seem like the Atlantic hurricane season is off to a slow start when compared to recent years, the average date of development for the season's first hurricane is Aug. 14. Though most of the Atlantic Basin is free of activity, there are a few tropical waves we are watching.

There are just two tropical waves are located near 38 west and 63 west. The tropical wave along 38 west has only a few showers and thunderstorms along its southern edge. The rest of the wave is embedded with a deep layer of Saharan dust that is preventing showers and thunderstorms from developing. This area of Saharan dust will travel westward toward the Caribbean, preventing development of any system in the tropical Atlantic for the next few days.

The tropical wave along 63 west is even less organized and only has a handful of showers associated with it. This wave is not expected to enhance shower and thunderstorm activity in the Caribbean as it passes through today and tomorrow.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Mike Pigott..........


What happened to the "wave" accuweather had further east of 38W? The one everyone in here is following? I guess it wasn't a wave after all.....NHC never had it as a wave.


And you believe that, Ike? Come on now, please, that coming from InaccuWeather, that's really comical. Anyways, good Monday morning, all! The tropics are finally and will be waking up rather shortly, two words, ''about time''. :)
Rainbow imagery revealed the postion of the ITCZ near 11-12N. The feature nearing 30W and a little south of the ITCZ near 9-10N. The ITCZ is rather high and could only mean one thing - the CATL is not as stable as one may think. Also notice the convective burst associated with the feature approaching 30W.
2149. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:


looks like something is near 30W if not a wave just ITCZ??


That's what it is according to the NHC...ITCZ.
Quoting Weather456:
Rainbow imagery revealed the postion of the ITCZ near 11-12N. The feature nearing 30W and a little south of the ITCZ near 9-10N. The ITCZ is rather high and could only mean one thing - the CATL is not as stable as one may think. Also notice the convective burst associated with the feature approaching 30W.

I see some cyclonic turning....anyone else see it?
Quoting cyclonekid:

How do you post that TWO...i've been trying ever since i joined WU.

EPAC Tropical Weather Outlook
Link
Quoting AussieStorm:

EPAC Tropical Weather Outlook
Link

I'm talking about posting the pic... of the TWO. :D Sorry for any misunderstandings
Quoting cyclonekid:

I see some cyclonic turning....anyone else see it?


near 51W, I assume. QuikSCAT also captured half of turning at the surface. Don't see it tied to anything significant but been watching it.
Quoting Weather456:


near 51W, I assume. QuikSCAT also captured half of turning at the surface. Don't see it tied to anything significant but been watching it.
Yep that's it
The monsoon trough extends very far out from Africa, all the way to 45W. The monsoon trough and ITCZ are basically equatorial troughs but the ITCZ is convergence between SE and NE Trades (not very conducive for circulation) but the monsoon trough lies between SW and NE (very conducive for circulation. Out feature nearing 30W is embedded in the monsoon trough, so be careful when attributing the likelihood of development based on "its embedded in the ITCZ". The monsoon trough accounts for more than 80% of EPAC and WPAC cyclones.
I was looking for a link like this and found this...much more widespread then the other...it even inculdes the Indian Ocean. :D

Link
Quoting cyclonekid:

I'm talking about posting the pic... of the TWO. :D Sorry for any misunderstandings

Just right click on the image and select copy image location.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Just right click on the image and select copy image location.
Ok Thanks.
Hello in here where is everyone.......
Is that something off "the Carolina coast" I see?
Now things are back to normal.......the only short range model showing anything developing is the CMC !
2167. WxLogic
Quoting futuremet:
Interesting lol





Wouldn't be surprised... W ATL conditions above the Greater Antilles are not that bad for development.
Quoting presslord:
Is that something off "the Carolina coast" I see?


Could be something SubTropical trying to develop off the South Carolina coast.
00Z UKMET, GFS, CMC



06Z GFS

Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Hello in here where is everyone.......

I know right, it's like a cave w/ nothing ... this is when Patrap puts up the 'Nuttin' guy. :D LOL!!
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Ida replaced Isabel, Isabel devastated my home area in Virgina when I lived there. My bets are on Ida. Plus it seems to fit,
Irene ,Issac, Iris, Isidore, Isabel, Ivan, Ike, and Ida.


Where in VA do you live?
2173. srada
2142. Chicklit 1:28 PM GMT on August 03, 2009
Is there any chance what's off the coast of Georgia and South Carolina could develop?


Good Morning..is this some development going on?
Good morning everyone!

I haven't been on lately (stupid busy lifestyle)... but it doesn't look like I have missed much...

Looks like the Atl may get a little more active...
Quoting WxLogic:


Wouldn't be surprised... W ATL conditions above the Greater Antilles are not that bad for development.


Yes I must admit, NAMMY's forecast this time does seem reasonable. The upper level low just north of it is causing some upper level diffluence, which is enhancing convection. Nevertheless, these diffluent winds are also a hindrance for it to effectually to consolidate itself. Wind shear just to the west of it is actually favorable, and the air is sufficiently moist for it sustain its moisture. The NAM develops it when it reaches the Bahamas. However, I still think it is a little too cyclogenically biased.
2176. srada
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...BROAD 5H TROF BECOMES FLATTER TUE AND WED WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTRIBUTING TO DRYING UPPER LEVELS.
BEST PRECIP CHANCES TUE WILL BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL
BE ALL BUT NONEXISTENT. DROPPED POPS INLAND WITH SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG
THE COAST.

WINDS ALOFT REMAIN ALMOST DUE WEST ON WED...KEEPING AIRMASS DRY
ABOVE 700 MB. 00Z WRF DROPS A SHORTWAVE/MCS INTO THE AREA WED
NIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST...ACCOMPANIED BY AN ABRUPT INCREASE IN DEEP
MOISTURE AND HIGHER POPS. FEATURE LOOKS AS THOUGH IT MAY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH FEEDBACK AND IS NOT SEEN IN THE 00Z GFS OR THE 12Z
ECMWF. EVEN IF WE ASSUME THE WRF IS CORRECT AND THIS FEATURE WILL
EXIST...TIMING AND LOCATION...AS WELL AS STRENGTH
...REMAIN IN
QUESTION. GIVEN THE LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY HAVE DECIDED TO
IGNORE THIS FEATURE FOR NOW AND KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WED AND WED
NIGHT.

EACH DAY TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP SEA BREEZE A LITTLE CLOSER TO
THE COAST...BUT SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH WILL
RESULT IN A SOUTHERLY RESULTANT SEA BREEZE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN LOW TO MID 70S.

from Wilm NWS...maybe development?
2177. msphar
MDR looks benign this AM guess 2009 will now take its rightful place among the outliers of late starters.
Quoting Weather456:


looks like it might be trying to consolidate a little. id like them to give it a yellow circle to see what they think will prevent it from forming

(i know there will be a few sensitive folks that will take the statement the wrong way and think im bashing on the nhc and being a "wishcaster", and im not, i actually want to see it and what they have to say about it other than a quick mention in the TWD)

Hi Srada,
Dunno. Haven't heard anything about it yet.
But I've seen systems come from this area and swoop south toward Florida under certain conditions. Certainly not qualified to say what, if anything, will happen here.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Could be something SubTropical trying to develop off the South Carolina coast.
Don't tell me that...I live in NC and don't need a Tropical System right now :D
What storm name corresponde to 98E at 112W 12N?
Quoting Weather456:
The monsoon trough extends very far out from Africa, all the way to 45W. The monsoon trough and ITCZ are basically equatorial troughs but the ITCZ is convergence between SE and NE Trades (not very conducive for circulation) but the monsoon trough lies between SW and NE (very conducive for circulation. Out feature nearing 30W is embedded in the monsoon trough, so be careful when attributing the likelihood of development based on "its embedded in the ITCZ". The monsoon trough accounts for more than 80% of EPAC and WPAC cyclones.


Generally speaking, what would it take for this "embedded" feature to break away from the ITCZ in the Atlantic and make it into the sub-tropical ridge area?.......Alternatively, and if does not break away, does it keep moving west into the e-pac?.........Thanks
2183. srada
Hey Chicklit

Yeah, Im in Wilm, NC and its been cloudy and rainy here all weekend and still is..we have had some thunderstorms all weekend..so we dont need the rain from this
Texas Heat...

Number of July 100 degrees or above days:

New Braunsfels: 27
San Antonio: 26
Austin: 26
La Grange: 23
College Station: 23
Giddings: 20
Victoria: 17
Sugar Land: 16
Brenham: 16
Huntsville: 14
Wharton: 9
Houston/IAH: 4
Conroe: 4
Tomball: 4

Quoting Weather456:
Rainbow imagery revealed the postion of the ITCZ near 11-12N. The feature nearing 30W and a little south of the ITCZ near 9-10N. The ITCZ is rather high and could only mean one thing - the CATL is not as stable as one may think. Also notice the convective burst associated with the feature approaching 30W.


That was what I was thinking, just for information to lurkers and those learning ITCZ convection can produce sometimes Tropical Cyclones.
Is this 98 and 99?
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Generally speaking, what would it take for this "embedded" feature to break away from the ITCZ in the Atlantic and make it into the sub-tropical ridge area?.......Alternatively, and if does not break away, does it keep moving west into the e-pac?.........Thanks


they break away as the close off. Just like how an upper low closes and off and leave the TUTT.

If it does not break away, it will follow the ITCZ and most likely remain weak.

Tropical Depression 6 remained embdedded wihtin the ITCZ before it became Felix.
any new update on the tropical wave near the cape verde islands
Quoting srada:
Hey Chicklit

Yeah, Im in Wilm, NC and its been cloudy and rainy here all weekend and still is..we have had some thunderstorms all weekend..so we dont need the rain from this

From this animation, looks like it's moving away from you. Sometimes the tail end of these fronts will spin off and end up down here, tho...but don't rely on me for knowing!!! There may be more rain heading your way, but from this view looks like that would come from the west, not the east. Waiting for Dr. Masters to give his analysis of present conditions.
Thanks 456 for the explanation of the influences on waves within the ITCZ.Link
Quoting Weather456:
The monsoon trough extends very far out from Africa, all the way to 45W. The monsoon trough and ITCZ are basically equatorial troughs but the ITCZ is convergence between SE and NE Trades (not very conducive for circulation) but the monsoon trough lies between SW and NE (very conducive for circulation. Out feature nearing 30W is embedded in the monsoon trough, so be careful when attributing the likelihood of development based on "its embedded in the ITCZ". The monsoon trough accounts for more than 80% of EPAC and WPAC cyclones.
Quoting Weather456:


they break away as the close off. Just like how an upper low closes and off and leave the TUTT.

If it does not break away, it will follow the ITCZ and most likely remain weak.

Tropical Depression 6 remained embdedded wihtin the ITCZ before it became Felix.


Very informative......Thank You So Much..
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
12:00 PM UTC August 3 2009
===============================

An area of disturbed weather (99E) located about 1100 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California Peninsula has become better organized over the past several hours. Conditions appear favorable for additional development.. and this system could become a tropical depression over the next day or so as it moves west-northwest at 15 MPH.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=====================================
There is a moderate chance for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone

System #2
---------
Showers and thunderstorm associated with a broad area or low pressure (98E) located about 700 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California has increased and become better organized over the past several hours. This system also has a potential to develop into a tropical depression over the next day or so as it moves west to west-northwest at around 15 MPH.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
=====================================
There is a moderate chance for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone
According to the SHIPS intensity models for 98E and 99E, it would seem that 99E would be the one to watch, as it takes it up to hurricane strength as it travels WNW / NW
2196. srada
From this animation, looks like it's moving away from you. Sometimes the tail end of these fronts will spin off and end up down here, tho...but don't rely on me for knowing!!! There may be more rain heading your way, but from this view looks like that would come from the west, not the east. Waiting for Dr. Masters to give his analysis of present conditions.
Thanks 456 for the explanation of the influences on waves within the ITCZ.


Thanks..it was still an informative explanation..Im still learning this myself too!
Dont take this the wrong way...but, i don't see anything much to look at. The only thing really in the possible making and its a long shot would be a blob located at 10N 50W and maybe something SubTropical near South Carolina Coast!
Quoting TampaSpin:
Dont take this the wrong way...but, i don't see anything much to look at. The only thing really in the possible making and its a long shot would be a blob located at 10N 50W and maybe something SubTropical near South Carolina Coast!


Why are you not interested in the wave S of the Cape Verdes? It does show some promise, IMO.
Quoting Claudette1234:
What storm name corresponde to 98E at 112W 12N?

If you're talking about the name it would get if it became a TS...Enrique
is it me or the tropical wave's thunderstorms are becoming more concentrated.
NEW BLOG!
Quoting sporteguy03:


That was what I was thinking, just for information to lurkers and those learning ITCZ convection can produce sometimes Tropical Cyclones.
I'M GLAD YOU MENTION IT. Many here seems to forget that specially from August to early October the ITCZ had produced some Hefty Storms. Gilbert? Not sure.Ok,I know is an "el niño" year.
12Z surface analysis adds a tropical wave ~18W


2207. srada
New Blog
Thanks Cyclonekid.

The Developed is very clear so next NHC report must named as Enrique.
Test.