WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

August Extends an Exceptional String of Record-Warm Global Months

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 9:24 PM GMT on September 20, 2016

August 2016 was Earth's warmest August since record keeping began in 1880, said NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) on Tuesday. In the NOAA database, August 2016 came in 0.92°C (1.66°F) warmer than the 20th-century average for August, beating the previous record for August, set in 2015, by 0.05°C. NASA also reported the warmest August in its database, as well as a tie with July 2016 for the warmest absolute temperature recorded in any month. Because most of the world’s land area is in the Northern Hemisphere, absolute global temperatures are warmest in northern summer--about 3-4°C (5-7°F) higher than in northern winter. This is why monthly global anomalies (departures from the monthly average) are commonly used to assess the relative warmth or coolness of a given month.


Figure 1. The departure from average (compared to temperatures from 1980 - 2015) of Earth’s surface temperature from 1880 to 2016, with the seasonal cycle left in. July and August 2016 were Earth’s hottest months on record in absolute terms, while February 2016 had the largest departure from average (in relative terms) from average of any month in the historical record. Image credit: Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies.


Figure 2. Departure of temperature from average for August 2016, the warmest August for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Pockets of record warmth were observed across every major ocean basin, including the northwest Atlantic, and over a few land areas. Image credit: National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).

A year-plus streak of global records
August 2016 marked the 16th consecutive month that NOAA’s global monthly temperature record was broken, which is the longest such streak since global temperature records began in 1880. Ocean-only temperatures were 0.02°C (0.04°F) cooler than the record warmth of August 2015, while land-only temperatures were a substantial 0.19°C (0.34°F) above the previous land-only record from August 2015. For the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere, global satellite-measured temperatures in August 2016 were the second warmest for any August in the 38-year record, behind only 1998, according to the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH).

With the powerful 2015-16 El Niño event now over, the impressive global warmth in recent months can mostly be attributed to the steady build-up of heat-trapping greenhouse gases due to human activities. NOAA’s global surface temperature for the year so far (January-August 2016) is an eye-opening 1.01°C (1.82°F) above the 20th-century average and a remarkable 0.16°C (0.29°F) warmer than the previous January-to-August record, set in 2015 (see Figure 3 below).

Following the 1997-98 “super” El Niño, monthly global temperature records were set through August 1998. The departure of the equally strong 2015-16 El Niño and the possible arrival of La Niña late this year should allow temperatures to drop slightly, perhaps breaking our string of record-warm months sometime in the near future. However, temperatures would have to truly plummet between now and December in order to keep 2016 from becoming the warmest year in global record-keeping. Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies, maintains that we have a better-than-99 percent chance of 2016 ending up as Earth’s third consecutive hottest year on record. Last week, in an essay for fivethirtyeight.com, Schmidt explained how he and his colleagues gained early confidence on that 2016 would be a record-warm year, based largely on the presence of the strong El Niño late last year. “Some key climate statistics are easily predictable far beyond the scales at which weather forecasts are skillful,” Schmidt wrote. “Those predictions clearly suggest an annual global temperature record in 2016 and a (relative) cooling in 2017, all while the long-term upward trends continue.”


Figure 3. Departure from the 20th-century average for the global January-through-August temperature for the years 1880 - 2016. This year has seen by far the warmest temperatures on record for the year-to-date period. Image credit: NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).

NOAA no longer expects a La Niña event
Sea surface temperatures in the Niño3.4 monitoring region of the eastern Pacific have been hovering near the threshold for a weak La Niña over the last couple of months. However, the atmospheric conditions that normally accompany La Niña have not fully evolved, and models suggest they may continue to lag. For this reason, NOAA has dropped the La Niña Watch that was in place for several months. According to the September ENSO forecast from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, neutral conditions are favored to persist through the Northern Hemisphere fall and into the winter (55 - 60% chance), with La Niña given about a 40% chance. This is a marked shift from NOAA’s August forecast, which called for a 55 - 60% chance of a La Niña event. Other agencies around the world are somewhat more bullish on La Niña, as noted by Climate Central’s John Upton last week. Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology retained its La Niña watch in its biweekly update on September 13, “Some climate models indicate a late and weak La Niña is possible,” the update noted. (Australia’s oceanic threshold for La Niña and El Niño is higher than NOAA’s: the Niño3.4 region must be at least 0.8°C warmer or cooler than average, rather than 0.5°C, though Australia doesn’t require those temperatures to persist for months as NOAA does.) The Japan Meteorological Agency has gone further: “It is considered that La Niña conditions are present in the equatorial Pacific,” stated the agency in its monthly update on September 9. The JMA uses the Niño3 region, which overlaps with the Niño3.4 region but extends further east.

Arctic sea ice hits its fourth lowest August extent on record
The rate of August sea ice loss was below average last month, due to cool and stormy conditions in the Arctic. As a result, sea ice extent in August 2016 was just the fourth lowest in the 38-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). So far, March, July and August have been the only months in 2016 that did not set a new record low for Arctic-wide sea ice extent (March 2016 was second lowest, July was third lowest). As we reported here last week, the annual minimum in sea ice occurred last week, and was statistically tied for the second lowest extent on record.

Three billion-dollar weather disasters for August 2016: Louisiana floods, China drought, U.S. severe weather
According to the August 2016 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield, two billion-dollar weather-related disaster hit the planet in August: a disastrous $10 - $15 billion flood in Louisiana, and a drought in China that cost $1.6 billion. Additionally, a severe weather outbreak in the Plains and Rockies on July 28 - 29 accumulated enough damage claims to be rated a billion-dollar disaster by the end of August. Between January - August 2016, there were 24 billion-dollar weather disasters globally--four fewer than occurred during January - August 2013, the year that ended up with the most billion-dollar weather disasters on record: 41. Here is the tally of billion-dollar weather disasters for January - August 2016:

1) Flooding, Yangtze Basin, China, 5/1 - 8/1, $28.0 billion, 475 killed
2) Flooding, Louisiana (U.S.), 8/9 - 8/16, $10 - $15 Billion, 13 killed
3) Flooding, Germany, France, Austria, Poland, 5/26 - 6/6, $5.5 billion, 17 killed
4) Drought, India, 1/1 - 6/30, $5.0 billion, 0 killed
5) Flooding, Northeast China 7/16 - 7/24, $5.0 billion, 289 killed
6) Wildfire, Fort McMurray, Canada, 5/2- 6/1, $5.0 billion, 0 killed
7) Severe Weather, Plains-Southeast U.S., 4/10 - 4/13, $3.75 billion, 1 killed
8) Severe Weather, Rockies-Plains-Southeast-Midwest U.S., 3/22 - 3/25, $2.5 billion, 0 killed
9) Flooding, China, 6/18 - 6/23, $2.3 billion, 68 killed
10) Winter Weather, East Asia, 1/20 - 1/26, $2.0 billion, 116 killed
11) Tropical Cyclone Roanu, Sri Lanka, India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, China, 5/14 - 5/21, $1.7 billion, 135 killed
12) Severe Weather, Plains-Midwest U.S., 4/29 - 5/3, $1.6 billion, 6 killed
13) Drought, China, 1/1 - 3/1, $1.6 billion, 0 killed
14) Drought, Zimbabwe, 6/1 - 8/10, $1.6 billion, 0 killed
15) Severe Weather, Plains-Midwest-Southeast-Northeast U.S., 3/4 - 3/12, $1.5 billion, 6 killed
16) Typhoon Nepartak, Philippines, Taiwan, China, 7/8 - 7/9, $1.5 billion, 111 killed
17) Severe Weather, Plains-Southeast U.S., 3/17 - 3/18, $1.4 billion, 0 killed
18) Flooding, Argentina and Uruguay, 4/4 - 4/10, $1.3 billion, 0 killed
19) Severe Weather, Plains-Midwest-Southeast-Northeast U.S., 2/22 - 2/25, $1.2 billion, 10 killed
20) Severe Weather, Plains-Midwest U.S., 5/21 - 5/28, $1.1 billion, 1 killed
21) Severe Weather, Netherlands, 6/23 - 6/24, $1.1 billion, 0 killed
22) Severe Weather, Plains-Rockies U.S., 7/28 - 7/29, $1.0 billion, 0 killed
23) Tropical Cyclone Winston, Fiji, 2/16 - 2/22, $1.0 billion, 44 killed
24) Winter Weather, Eastern U.S., 1/21 - 1/24, $1.0 billion, 58 killed


And here are the three disasters from August 2016 in more detail:


Disaster 1. Torrential rains of 20 - 30” fell over portions of Louisiana August 9 - 16 from a tropical depression-like storm that meandered over the southern U.S. for a week. Catastrophic flooding killed thirteen people, and damaged as many 110,000 homes and 100,000 vehicles. Damage was estimated at $10 - $15 billion, which will likely make it the second most expensive non-hurricane related flood in U.S. history, behind the $35 billion in damage from the summer 1993 flooding in the Midwest. In this image, we see an aerial view of flooding in Hammond, Louisiana on August 13, 2016. AP Photo/Max Becherer.


Disaster 2. Severe drought began in June across northeastern China in the Inner Mongolia, Jilin and Heilongjiang provinces, and intensified during August. The Ministry of Civil Affairs (MCA) reported well-above normal temperatures and reduced rainfall that damaged more than 3.1 million hectares (7.6 million acres), with total economic losses at $1.6 billion. In this image, we see drought conditions in China as of September 1, 2016. Image credit: Beijing Climate Center.


Disaster 3. Severe thunderstorms swept across parts of the Rockies and Plains on July 28 - 29, causing $1 billion in damage. Hardest hit was Colorado, where golf-ball-and-larger-sized hail struck the Colorado Springs metro area. Hail accumulations up to one feet (0.3 meters) fell in some areas, and torrential rains led to flash flooding. Heavy losses were also reported in Wyoming, Kansas, Nebraska, and South Dakota. In this image, we see an intense thunderstorm building over Boulder, Colorado on July 29, 2016. Image credit: wunderphotographer austncitylimits.

Below-average monsoon rains cause deadly flooding in India
India, whose $5 billion drought has been Earth's fourth most expensive weather-related natural disaster of 2016, is getting a better monsoon after two straight years of poor rains, but the moisture delivered to date is still below average. According to the India Meteorological Department, monsoon rains during the period June 1 - September 19, 2016 were about 5% below average. Even a below-average Indian monsoon can still wreak havoc through flooding. Through the end of August, monsoon floods had killed at least 510 people in India and caused at least $150 million in damage, with the Ganges River reaching the highest levels ever recorded at four locations in northern India. Worst affected were the states of Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Assam, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, and Jharkhand.

Notable global heat and cold marks set in August 2016
Hottest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: 52.7°C (126.9°F) at Mitribah, Kuwait, 2 August
Coldest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: -32.4°C (-26.3°F) at Geo Summit, Greenland, 15 August
Hottest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: 41.7°C (107.1°F) at Palmas, Brazil, 18 August
Coldest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: -78.1°C (-108.6°F) at Vostok, Antarctica, 31 August
(Courtesy of Maximiliano Herrera.)

Major weather stations that set (not tied) new all-time heat or cold records in August 2016 (Courtesy of Maximiliano Herrera)
Erdeni (Mongolia) max. 40.5°C, 1 August
Bayandelger (Mongolia) max. 39.4°C, 2 August
Choibalsan (Mongolia) max. 41.9°C, 3 August
Khalkh Gol (Mongolia) max. 41.7°C, 3 August
Dashbalbar (Mongolia) max. 41.4°C, 3 August
Matad (Mongolia) max.  40.7°C,  3 August
Xin Barag Youqi (China) max. 44.1°C, 3 August
Hailar (China) max. 41.7°C, 3 August
Uliastai (China) max. 40.6°C, 3 August; increased to 42.5 on 4 August
Arxan (China) max. 37.6°C, 3 August; increased to 39.1 on 4 August
Kajlastuj (Russia) max. 41.6°C, 3 August
Dubai Airport (United Arab Emirates) max. 48.9°C, 3 August
Xilin Hot (China) max. 39.8°C, 4 August
Hyesan (North Korea) max. 39.7°C, 5 August
Samjiyon (North Korea) max. 32.2°C, 5 August
Vigo (Spain) max. 40.8°C, 7 August
Braga (Portugal) max. 42.2°C, 7 August
Porto City (Portugal) max. 40.9°C,  7 August
Porto Airport (Portugal) max. 38.6°C, 7 August
Mora (Portugal) max. 44.8°C,   7 August
Kyowa (Japan) max. 33.6°C, 7 August
Mishima (Japan) max. 37.2°C, 8 August; increased to 37.4°C on 9 August
Waki (Japan) max. 37.9°C, 8 August
Kiriishi  (Japan) max. 39.2°C, 9 August
Nanbu  (Japan) max. 38.9°C, 9 August
Gotemba  (Japan) max. 35.3°C, 9 August
Kikukawa Makinohara  (Japan) max.  37.0°C, 9 August
Angra do Heroismo (Azores, Portugal) max. 29.3°C, 9 August
Omuta (Japan) max. 37.5°C, 11 August
Imari (Japan) max. 36.9°C, 11 August
Aso Otohime  (Japan) max. 34.9°C, 11 August
Aso (Japan) max. 29.8°C, 11 August
Haenam (South Korea) max. 37.1°C, 11 August
Chizu (Japan) max. 37.0°C, 12 August
Ureshino (Japan) max. 38.5°C, 12 August
Izuhara (Japan) max. 36.8°C, 13 August
Gyeongju (South Korea) max. 39.4°C, 12 August
Youngcheon (South Korea) max. 39.6°C, 13 August
Yeongdeok (South Korea) max. 38.6°C, 13 August
Pohang (South Korea) max. 39.3°C, 13 August
Busan (South Korea) max. 37.3°C, 14 August
Hinatuan (Philippines) max. 37.2°C, 19 August
Owen Int. Airport (Cayman Islands, United Kingdom) max. 34.9°C, 21 August *
Ikuchishima (Japan) max. 36.3°C, 21 August
Aki (Japan) max. 36.5°C, 21 August
Sendai (Japan) max. 37.2°C, 21 August
Kiinagashima (Japan) max. 37.9°C, 22 August  
Shingu (Japan) max. 38.4°C, 22 August
Kagoshima (Japan) max. 37.4°C, 22 August
Kiire (Japan) max. 37.4°C, 22 August
Kimotsuki Maeda (Japan) max. 36.7°C, 22 August  
Makurazaki (Japan) max. 36.7°C, 22 August
Koniya (Japan) max. 34.4°C, 23 August
Fengjie (China) max. 42.2°C, 24 August
Utirik Atoll (Marshall Islands) max. 35.6°C, 24 August **
Neijiang (China) max. 40.1°C, 25 August
North Lakimpur (India) max. 39.9°C, 25 August
Cape Arkona (Germany) max. 32.2°C, 26 August


Notes from Maximiliano Herrera:
* ties the territorial record for the highest temperature ever recorded in the Cayman Islands
** breaks the territorial record for the highest temperature ever recorded in the Marshall Islands

Two all-time national heat records set or tied in August 2016
Two nations or territories--the Cayman Islands and the Marshall Islands--set or tied records in August 2016 for their all-time hottest temperature on record. Update (25 September]: From January through September 10, 2016, a total of 21 nations or territories tied or set all-time records for their hottest temperature in recorded history, including the British Virgin Islands record just added below. This breaks the record of eighteen all-time heat records set in 2010 for the greatest number of such records set in one year. Also, one all-time cold temperature record has been set so far in 2016 (in Hong Kong.) "All-time" record here refers to the warmest or coldest temperature ever reliably reported in a nation or territory. The period of record varies from country to country and station to station, but it is typically a few decades to a century or more. Most nations do not maintain official databases of extreme temperature records, so the national temperature records reported here are in many cases not official. Our data source is international weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, one of the world's top climatologists, who maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website. If you reproduce this list of extremes, please cite Maximiliano Herrera as the primary source of the weather records. Here are 2016's all-time heat and cold records as of September  10:

French Guiana tied its all-time hottest record on September 10, 2016, when the mercury hit 37.9°C (100.2°F) at Saint Laurent do Moroni.

The Marshall Islands set its all-time hottest record on August 24, 2016, when the mercury hit 35.6°C (96.1°F) at Utirik Atoll.

The Cayman Islands (United Kingdom territory) tied its all-time hottest record on August 21, 2016, when the mercury hit 34.9°C (94.8°F) at Owen International Airport.

The British Virgin Islands [United Kingdom territory] set its all-time hottest record on July 22, 2016, when the mercury hit 35.0°C (95.0°F] at Terrance B. Lettsome International Airport.

Iraq set its all-time hottest record on July 22, 2016, when the mercury hit 53.9°C (129.0°F) at Basrah.

Iran tied its all-time hottest record on July 22, 2016, when the mercury hit 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Delhoran.

Kuwait set its all-time hottest record on July 21, 2016, when the mercury hit 54.0°C (129.2°F) at Mitribah.

Guernsey (United Kingdom territory) tied its all-time hottest record on July 19, 2016, when the mercury hit 35.0°C (95°F) at the small island of Alderney.

Hong Kong Territory (China) tied its all-time hottest record on July 9, 2016, when the mercury hit 37.9°C (100.2°F) at Happy Valley.

Niger set its all-time hottest record on June 8, 2016, when the mercury hit 49.0°C (120.2°F) at Bilma.

Palau tied its all-time hottest record on June 8, 2016, when the mercury hit 34.4°C (93.9°F) at Koror AWS.

India set its all-time hottest record on May 19, 2016, when the mercury hit 51.0°C (123.8°F) at Phalodi.

Maldives set its all-time hottest record on April 30, 2016, when the mercury hit 35.0°C (95.0°F) at Hanimaadhoo.

Thailand set its all-time hottest record on April 28, 2016, when the mercury hit 44.6°C (112.3°F) at Mae Hong Son.

Cambodia set its all-time hottest record on April 15, 2016, when the mercury hit 42.6°C (108.7°F) at Preah Vihea.

Burkina Faso set its all-time hottest record on April 13, 2016, when the mercury hit 47.5°C (117.5°F) at Dori.

Laos set its all-time hottest record on April 12, 2016, when the mercury hit 42.3°C (108.1°F) at Seno.

Vanuatu in the South Pacific set its all-time hottest record on February 8, 2016, when the mercury hit 36.2°C (97.2°F) at Lamap Malekula.

Tonga set its all-time hottest record on February 1, 2016, when the mercury hit 35.5°C (95.9°F) at Niuafoou.

Wallis and Futuna Territory (France) set a new territorial heat record with 35.8°C (96.4°F) on January 10, 2016 at Futuna Airport. This is the second year in a row that Wallis and Futuna has beaten its all-time heat mark; the previous record was a 35.5°C (95.9°F) reading on January 19, 2015 at the Futuna Airport.

Botswana set its all-time hottest record on January 7, 2016, when the mercury hit 43.8°C (110.8°F) at Maun.

Hong Kong Territory (China) set its all-time coldest mark on January 24, 2016, when the mercury dipped to -6.0°C (21.2°F) at Tai Mo Shan.

We'll be back on Thursday with the latest on tropical activity in the Atlantic and Pacific (see also our update from Wednesday morning].

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

from last blog

Quoting 124. WeatherkidJoe2323:


56 minutes ago
Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits
G-IV aircraft is directly measuring 30-40 kt shearing winds out of the SSE at ~170mb over #Karl's center. Very unfavorable for strengthening


so am gusting this is wrong then ?




showing 5 to 10kt of shear
thanks something to read waiting for dinner

after work tune



could Karl still open up too a wave if there really 30 too 40kt of shear over it
www.co2.earth

Atmospheric CO2

August 2016

402.24
parts per million (ppm)

Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii (Scripps Keeling Curve)





LED estimate's August flooding caused $8.7 billion in damages to Louisiana




The following is a news release from Louisiana Economic Development:

BATON ROUGE, La. — Louisiana Economic Development estimates the August 2016 Louisiana Flood caused $8.7 billion in damage to Louisiana residential and commercial properties, with damage to businesses in the state exceeding $2 billion. Those figures do not include damage to the state’s public infrastructure.

LED commissioned economist Dek Terrell of Lewis Terrell and Associates LLC to conduct the damage assessment in support of efforts by Gov. John Bel Edwards to gain federal appropriations from Congress. Those appropriations would be in addition to Louisiana recovery efforts being led by FEMA, the U.S. Small Business Administration and other federal, state and local agencies. Gov. Edwards is seeking $2 billion that would be delivered as disaster assistance through Community Development Block Grants managed by the federal Department of Housing and Urban Development.

In addition to an estimated 109,000 housing units damaged, nearly 20,000 Louisiana businesses were interrupted by the flooding that began Aug. 11 and continued for days, leading to the flooding of more than 6,000 businesses in 22 affected parishes. LED also surveyed 455 economic driver firms in flood-impacted regions – those employers that contribute the most output to the state’s economy – and found that 6 percent suffered significant damage while 9 percent sustained minor damage.

“The good news we want to project is that most of our major industries in Louisiana remained open and today are continuing their operations successfully,” LED Secretary Don Pierson said. “During the three-week period after the flooding event began, Louisiana shouldered labor and value-added production losses that affected 6 percent of our economic activity statewide. As a state economy we are doing better every day, and we remain strong and open for business.”

Nevertheless, the flooding of housing inventory – affecting three of every four homes in Livingston Parish, for example – combined with damage to schools, businesses, churches and public infrastructure to disrupt daily life for hundreds of thousands of people. At peak, LED estimates that 278,500 Louisiana residents were unable to work due to temporary closures, suspension of operations, transportation impasses and residential flooding. Many of those residents continue to seek assistance through FEMA, SBA and contractors as they rebuild their lives.

“While our economy as a whole is healthy, many of our residents have not been made whole in their home or work life yet,” Secretary Pierson said. “Our friends, families and colleagues, including many in our own department, are doing the difficult work of rebuilding their lives and we are doing everything we can to support them. That support extends to our vital small business community. We are delivering more resources and assistance to them daily and will stand by them as they reopen their firms and restore the critically important framework of our small business economy. Small businesses are big business in our state, representing more than 97 percent of all Louisiana business establishments and more than half of our private-sector workforce.”

LED is providing a complete resource guide for flood assistance at OpportunityLouisiana.com.

Included in that effort are seven Business Recovery Centers opened in flood-impacted regions in conjunction with SBA and the Louisiana Small Business Development Center Network.

SBA is leading efforts to provide disaster loan assistance to homeowners, businesses of all sizes and many nonprofit organizations. The LSBDC Network is providing guidance to help small business owners plan and implement their recovery. Together, they’ve visited more than 2,200 individuals through Business Recovery Center outreach in Louisiana, with nearly 50,000 calls fielded by SBA customer service representatives and SBA loan approvals to date reaching more than $236 million. FEMA has disbursed more than $505 million in individual assistance to help residents who were uninsured or underinsured for flood losses. The National Flood Insurance Program, managed by FEMA, has authorized more than $274 million in flood insurance claims to date in the state.

On Friday, FEMA surpassed $1 billion in total federal assistance to Louisiana disaster survivors and communities, less than 30 days after the flooding event began. More than 63,000 Louisiana families are receiving housing-related assistance through federal programs.

Secretary Pierson said federal, state and local partners have risen to the occasion to provide a concerted, strong response, but Louisiana’s recovery needs remain great. As part of a comprehensive request for $2 billion in additional flood disaster assistance from Congress, LED hopes to secure more resources to provide bridge funding and infrastructure resources that will restore Louisiana businesses.

“Our view is fixed on long-term solutions that will sustain Louisiana’s impacted businesses,” Pierson said, “not only to help them renovate their damaged structures, not only to help them reopen their doors, but to regenerate the working capital and revenue they need to survive this disaster and to become healthy contributors to Louisiana’s economic success far into the future.”
Quoting 7. Patrap:


we be fine what could possibly go wrong
Quoting 6. thetwilightzone:

could Karl still open up too a wave if there really 30 too 40kt of shear over it
well its not a good thing its gonna have some trouble to deal with





Reminds me a little of Kilo last year in which it struggled a lot early on
i think karl could open up too a wave soon if this wind shear keeps going on it but it could re from once it can find lower wind shear
Thanks for the blog as well, spectacular job as always!
hmm...looks like Keep or someone took out the hoover vac to the blog comments.
N Lesser Antilles's weather will be under the influence of Karl tomorrow, I wouldn't discard the possibility of a few squalls and gusty winds.



Circulation reaches all the way down to 16N.
Lisa looks way better than Karl at the moment. How could there be such strong shear affecting Karl? So much for it lessening. I guess it's the to the west not moving away as quickly as it was supposed to?
Quoting 12. kestrel68:


On the plus side, you managed to spell the word "yawn" correctly but on the minus side, you continue to be one of the rudest commenters here. Is it that hard for you to show a little respect?



Taz and Caribboy are making this blog difficult to come to. Really going downhill fast. I notice a lot of the bloggers who come here hoping for sensible discussions are hardly posting comments anymore. It's definitely not what it used to be when I started lurking here several years back.
Quoting 18. chinookwx:

Thanks for the blog as well, spectacular job as always!
I like the handle, learned about chinook a type of foehn wind that blows downslope of the Rockies in thunderstorms class.
Quoting 23. 2manytimes:


Taz and Caribboy are making this blog difficult to come to. Really going downhill fast. I notice a lot of the bloggers who come here hoping for sensible discussions are hardly posting comments anymore. It's definitely not what it used to be when I started lurking here several years back.


Maybe it's because you stopped lurking
Quoting 23. 2manytimes:





Hence the hoover vac to the recent comments. I really enjoy tracking weather, and though I've only been here a year I've been around on other sites for a long time. WU is the only one with so much nonsense happening on a regular basis. Most people here and other forums are very intelligent and post informative and insightful things, others not so much.
Quoting 21. JRRP7:


Won't count my chickens before they hatch, but if this does develop it will be another win for the GFS.
sun is out at south pole

D-min has peaked for Karl, bring on D-max.



Will be interesting to see if it can cover itself tonight.
Quoting 33. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Won't count my chickens before they hatch, but if this does develop it will be another win for the GFS.


Wait until you see the EURO long range, Caleb. It won't disappoint. Should be a very low rider.
Quoting 34. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

sun is out at south pole


We should take WU members on a trip to the South Pole to observe the ice melting in Antarctica. I would like to go see some penguins too!
Quoting 21. JRRP7:




May not be "low" :)
Quoting 23. 2manytimes:


Taz and Caribboy are making this blog difficult to come to. Really going downhill fast. I notice a lot of the bloggers who come here hoping for sensible discussions are hardly posting comments anymore. It's definitely not what it used to be when I started lurking here several years back.


Another one who doesn't like my wishcasting. But OK, it's fine.
Quoting 39. Grothar:



Wait until you see the EURO long range, Caleb. It won't disappoint. Should be a very low rider.
Wow! A track like this might put tropical storm advisories up for the coast of Guyana and because they're below sea level the flooding could become significant. The seawall is not that high there either.

Quoting 39. Grothar:



Wait until you see the EURO long range, Caleb. It won't disappoint. Should be a very low rider.


The season is done for me.

If it's not the shear, then it's the dry air, or the fast forward speed.

If it's not a trough, then it's a rigde keeping anything 500 miles away.

If it's not a fish storm, then it's a 10N westward moving storm all the way to S America....
Quoting 43. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Wow! A track like this might put tropical storm advisories up for the coast of Guyana and because they're below sea level the flooding could become significant. The seawall is not that high there either.


Any chance it moves into Nicaragua/ Honduras/ Belize later on? or it will move NW to Cuba and Jamaica?


Not my year.
384 hours.

Quoting 46. CaribBoy:



Not my year.
192 hours
Low rider from birth to death. Not so exciting right?



Quoting 45. allancalderini:

Any chance it moves into Nicaragua/ Honduras/ Belize later on? or it will move NW to Cuba and Jamaica?
Possible if the North American Ridge of 2016 holds firm. Joan-Miriam took a similar path being depicted by the GFS.
Quoting 44. CaribBoy:



The season is done for me.

If it's not the shear, then it's the dry air, or the fast forward speed.

If it's not a trough, then it's a rigde keeping anything 500 miles away.

If it's not a fish storm, then it's a 10N westward moving storm all the way to S America....


That's a good year for the rest of us.
Quoting 48. Gearsts:

192 hours


Yes it's still far away, so hopefully it will move more N :)
Quoting 43. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Wow! A track like this might put tropical storm advisories up for the coast of Guyana and because they're below sea level the flooding could become significant. The seawall is not that high there either.




Some long range models are hinting at another system following the current wave that could also be low rider. As you probably know, the ridge is supposed to be very strong in the Atlantic the next week or two.
Quoting 53. Grothar:



Some long range models are hinting at another system following the current wave that could also be low rider. As you probably know, the ridge is supposed to be very strong in the Atlantic the next week or two.


Lol that season will kill me.
Quoting 37. Grothar:


I like to see one for perma frost and methane release variance lets really scare em
Quoting 51. Grothar:



That's a good year for the rest of us.

lol
Quoting 50. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Possible if the North American Ridge of 2016 holds firm. Joan-Miriam took a similar path being depicted by the GFS.
Interesting track. Thanks Caleb and not sure if it would be good having a storm close to Honduras at that time as the country gives a 3 days vacations to most Hondurans and most travel to the northern coast to enjoy beaches. We also have thousands of people coming from all CA during that week. Although having a storm that give us rain would be cool as last year 11/18 departments suffer drought conditions and many people loose their crops.
Here you go Allan. The Northeast is baking, while the Western Caribbean has a hurricane, makes sense.

Quoting 46. CaribBoy:


Not my year.


Talking about years...
Today is the 18th anniversary of Hurricane Georges in the Lesser Antilles.
So that means it has been 18years(tomorrow) since Puerto Rico has seen the landfall of a hurricane on its coasts, for an island in the deep tropics that's pretty lucky.

Tucson checking in...

Paine is bringing no raine!

Can't even get rain with tropical systems here. :(
It's the 18 GFS, what do you expect. Long ways out. It will change or may not even happen.
Quoting 46. CaribBoy:



Not my year.
This upcoming low rider storm will need to be watched closely. Could be a big one in the Caribbean. We will see.

CaribBoy- one thing to consider- perhaps pursue a career which will allow you the money to fly anywhere you want to safely experience a cyclone- then you can have all the fun in the world :D

My post was edited because I went on one of my typical late evening ramblings.
Quoting 63. GrandCaymanMed:

This upcoming low rider storm will need to be watched closely. Could be a big one in the Caribbean. We will see.

CaribBoy- one thing to consider- perhaps pursue a career which will allow you the money to fly anywhere you want to safely experience a cyclone


he just wants rain
Quoting 59. JLPR2:



Talking about years...
Today is the 18th anniversary of Hurricane Georges in the Lesser Antilles.
So that means it has been 18years(tomorrow) since Puerto Rico has seen the landfall of a hurricane on its coasts, for an island in the deep tropics that's pretty lucky.


What's the longest time period PR hasn't been hit by a hurricane.
I do wonder if conditions will be favorable for development of the Caribbean system GFS and EURO are showing given how much Karl and Lisa are struggling - I don't mean to wishcast, I'm just genuinely curious.


Quoting 65. Articuno:



he just wants rain


When I read his posts I see within him a younger version of myself. Perhaps this is the psychological concept of "projection" taking hold of my evening musings. As a child I spent many hours wish casting storms upon myself when I lived in Tampa Bay. Fortunately for Tampa Bay, none of my casts came to fruition. But I was a wild child, that's for sure.
The GFS storm is still well outside a normal confidence window. For now, our disheveled partners in crime Karl and Lisa will have to hold us over. Looks like the next big storm threat will again be in the West Pacific; it'll originate from this invest, 96W, and should develop into a typhoon over the next week.

Quoting 55. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I like to see one for perma frost and methane release variance lets really scare em



I tried to post that image, but it froze up on me.
Quoting 69. Grothar:




I tried to post that image, but it froze up on me.
smarty pants
Talk about wind shear, from Gonzo:


Raw Recon Data
( * ) Denotes suspect data
Time: 22:45:00Z
Coordinates: 20.533N 60.467W
Acft. Static Air Press: 146.9 mb
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 14,281 m (46,854 ft)
D-value: 543 m
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 324° at 198 kts (From the NW at 227.9 mph)
Air Temp: -65.7°C* (-86.3°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 230 kts (264.7 mph)
73. SLU
Quoting 46. CaribBoy:



Not my year.


lol. you know it's not your year when a cat 1 hurricane rides so low it passes over southern Trinidad.


Still far out but an interesting scenario nonetheless.
75. SLU
Quoting 59. JLPR2:



Talking about years...
Today is the 18th anniversary of Hurricane Georges in the Lesser Antilles.
So that means it has been 18years(tomorrow) since Puerto Rico has seen the landfall of a hurricane on its coasts, for an island in the deep tropics that's pretty lucky.






Hmmm.... Doesn't Irene 2011 count as a landfall?
Quoting 74. NCHurricaneTracker69:



Still far out but an interesting scenario nonetheless.


Oooh! Poor Nicaragua!
77. vis0
WARNING! The views expressed by vis0 are solely vis0's no body in their right or left mind would think this way...of course if what i say is proven to be factual, all will take credit that's okay the present me will be long gone by then
 
WARNING2! i go in a bit of a tangent in explaining the affects TO ME as to a warming planet as TO ME if science discovers that my statement (from my 1970s theories) how a sick planet raises the odds of having a sick society maybe nay sayers in knowing that their property values go down due to rising individual crime rates  or themselves are in a greater danger of becoming ill or assaulted might rethink how they see aGW is not as something that tree-hugger fight for but all that prefer to live in a more stable world would desire. i extend an olive leaf...for us USofA'rs its dipped in marshmallow ...hmmmmmm m-a-r-s-h-m-e-l-l-o-w...

i'm just Wondering how "The tropics graphic" will change as to a warming planet.
 
image host


No Dakster that's not the invisible kat enjoying the warmth of a fireplace.
 

My 22cents is the cyan line as to the amount of moisture TS can carry / output.
i see 2 new peaks A & B and the "old" main and sub-peak separating C & D
 
Of course skeptic$ (not true skeptics but those that act like skeptics for the $$) of  peer reviewed science will say something like,  
Why think 150-200 years out?  
THINK how was it that this USofA country became a GOOD country?
 
Maybe cause forefathers (with much input of wives and / or lady fiends) made sure that a good seed was planted by warranting freedom to the masses not just those that looked or thought like one particular group. When was this freedom planted that gave all even skeptics the right to question BUT QUESTION WITH REASON? Oh maybe 200+ years ago with of course adjustments done as society evolved.
 
So why not think ahead with thoughts to do good for all people as in helping clean up the planet for all.
 

i've explained how a sick earth raises the Hz (study sound from storms and light bursts be they from a rock as in quakes* to lightning to read such affects)
In turn that causes ones emotions to be worm on ones sleeves.  this means that that type of inside / out thought pattern is easier to "radicalize".
Anyone remember my old blogbyte (some info in new blog, still testing 3 blog sites as to a full blog on that subject trouble is with formatting styles in free blogs not to my needs) where i mentioned how gangs use the whistle in ones breathing (via nose) specifically as one sleeps as a carrier thus send signals to brain via sub carrying "words" therefore that person can be radicalized and the trigger be a simple rare words, are you reading this FBI i wrote them as to this pre 9/11 as to USofA gangs using this since the 1960s now its seems its in the hands of foreign terrorists (particularly ISIS) ITS ALL CONNECTED, HOW WE ARE ALL IN ONE PLANET we are all forms of energy and sound is the ultimate manipulator more so of the "damaged" brain.  
 
To minimize whistling use humidifier (not salt nose "bathes" that'll make it drier later) and IMPORTANT to take turn punch each nostril as one takes in CLEAN humidified air to breath in FULLY into each lung thus cleaning out all artificial (usually negative) flows. Pinching nose is an old ancient technique helps in deepening meditations/thoughts...me i never have meditated am always spaced out towards the deep blue end 366/25/8.  Some menthol products might maintain the nose humid for a longer period of time than just water vapour.  
================footnote=====
*Just as some cannot see a rock as a living entity one thinks that only HZ is affected mainly by light bursts above ground, THINK there are tons of quakes under 3.0 that most humans do not sense the pressure to create such a force specially from deep underground is as if a lightning occurred underground.
i'm still reading #3436 where some say TS season is over others have a cat∞ (infinitisimal) and others trying to pinpoint where Julia and non existent ghost of x92L is...me i'm just trying to find my sleep.
 
INjoy.

78. SLU
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 6h6 hours ago Manchester, NH
Atlantic ACE showed a statistically significant decrease during the time that #brangelina were together.
79. SLU
#Karl is tied w/ Dennis (1981) for least amount of ACE generated by Atlantic TC in 1st 5 days as named storm in satellite era (since 1966)
80. SLU
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 9h9 hours ago
Tropical Storm #Lisa has formed in the eastern Atlantic - 2016 is the 8th fastest to 12 named storms in the Atlantic on record.

Lisa looks good
Quoting 75. SLU:





Hmmm.... Doesn't Irene 2011 count as a landfall?
Irene counts as a Puerto Rico landfall, but it was only a tropical storm at the time it made landfall. It was fairly close to hurricane status, though - it became a hurricane as soon as it went right back over water.
am looking forword too see what the NHC says on Karl tonight but by looking at this it looks like the low level center has be come a REMNANT LOW or open wave there still some strong turning with Karl so it has a ch too re from when it finds lower wind shear the NHC has stated at 5pm

that

center had lost some definition throughout day and tonight it may be gone



Quoting 81. HurricaneFan:


Lisa looks good


if you look closer it looks like Lisa is haveing issue on wish center is wish is more N or is it more S
85. SLU
Quoting 82. Oxfordvalley:

Irene counts as a Puerto Rico landfall, but it was only a tropical storm at the time it made landfall. It was fairly close to hurricane status, though - it became a hurricane as soon as it went right back over water.


Ok. The post season analysis track shows it at Hurricane strength over PR.
86. SLU
Quoting 78. SLU:

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 6h6 hours ago Manchester, NH
Atlantic ACE showed a statistically significant decrease during the time that #brangelina were together.


i am soooo out of touch regarding pop culture.
Quoting 2. thetwilightzone:

from last blog



so am gusting this is wrong then ?




showing 5 to 10kt of shear


Yes sir, More then likely, Recon always clears things up which is why we need them out there.
Quoting 75. SLU:





Hmmm.... Doesn't Irene 2011 count as a landfall?


No, Irene made landfall as a Tropical Storm and became a hurricane over land, plus hurricane force winds were never felt here.
So Georges was the last hurricane to make landfall in PR.
Quoting 66. Gearsts:

What's the longest time period PR hasn't been hit by a hurricane.


Longest gap between named storms
22 years 1956-1979

32 years for Hurricanes, between Betsy(Santa Clara) in 1956 and Hugo in 1989.

Taiwan is not getting a break this year. Every single model is predicting ANOTHER strong typhoon to hit in the near future.




As it's currently 43 F in Barrow, Alaska, it's a safe bet that an Arctic air outbreak isn't imminent.
Thanks Keeper


Karl is looking ugly tonight
Quoting 93. gulfbreeze:


This should be removed NOW!!!! FOR Language!!! and be Ban

Jesus Christ calm down. it's an expression.

On the other hand. Climate change, yes it is clearly something that is occurring. But we can debate the causes endlessly still lol.


It actually looks like Lisa is the one that wants to be hurricane.
Quoting 96. George1938:


Jesus Christ calm down. it's an expression.

On the other hand. Climate change, yes it is clearly something that is occurring. But we can debate the causes endlessly still lol.
No to some people it's is an insult!
AL, 12, 2016092100, , BEST, 0, 199N, 560W, 35, 1005, TS

Karl pulling west, but it is a mess.
Quoting 71. Grothar:



I know that's a long way out sure hope it's wrong.
101. beell

Why don't you edit your complaint post while you're at it.
j/s.
I suppose it is, sorry for being immature and such.
Quoting 101. beell:



Why don't you edit your complaint post while you're at it.
j/s.

I should had but not sure how to do that.
Quoting 102. George1938:


I suppose it is, sorry for being immature and such.


Sorry didn't mean to get so upset those words get to me.
Quoting 64. JRRP7:




Do you know what it means ? :))
Evening all. It's been yet another hot and humid day in Nassau. While some parts of the island did get some relief from the torrid temperatures this afternoon, others continued to swelter. Given this constant heat, I'd be surprised if the Bahamas escapes the season unscathed.... which is why I'm eyeing Karl. I'm hoping the forecast track verifies and even Bermuda escapes the worst....
Quoting 73. SLU:



lol. you know it's not your year when a cat 1 hurricane rides so low it passes over southern Trinidad.


After the series of Fishes, that's really shocking :(
Quoting 105. CaribBoy:



Do you know what it mean what does it means ?
Quoting 105. CaribBoy:



Do you know what it means ? :))


Means the GFS will drop it when we get to like 4 days out.
After tomorrow, the anniversary of the first Hurricane I ever researched at age 9 while tracking my first season which was 2004. The Great New England Hurricane of 1938. I shall be gearing up for thoughts to winter because as 2011 taught me late October is apparently fair game to get power knocked out for a week by a near blizzard.

If you have not heard about that storm here are some fun facts.
-4.8billion dollars inflated to 2011 in damages, if it were to repeat today damages are estimated to top 39 billion.
-2/3rds of white pine trees in NH were toppled (the common kind)
-Moved onshore at a speed around 45mph creating a tsunami like surge. (Some sources claim 60mph but eye placement reports suggest less)
-Common gusts of 150mph slammed the coast directly, highest recorded gust 186mph Blue Hill MA (southwest of Boston)
-Killed about 600 people.
-Providence, RI was inundated by 12ft of water above street level with max surges reaching between 20 and 25ft.
-Lasted as a Hurricane all the way into Canada, only Maine missed heavy destruction.
-Was suspected to go to sea leaving no warnings. That morning on the 21st Sun was out. That evening the sun was out. That fast.

When this happens again be sure you will hear all about it from me lol
Quoting 109. Astrometeor:



Means the GFS will drop it when we get to like 4 days out.
Haha I think so too ..
112. beell
Quoting 103. gulfbreeze:



Click the "Modify Comment" at post 93, place your cursor to the right of the offending language-and backspace until it is gone. Click the "Submit" button.

113. SLU
Quoting 89. JLPR2:



No, Irene made landfall as a Tropical Storm and became a hurricane over land, plus hurricane force winds were never felt here.
So Georges was the last hurricane to make landfall in PR.


Ok. Got it. Unusual down time for a big island in hurricane alley.
Quoting 32. Climate175:


Shifting to the Caribbean, I see.....
Quoting 43. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Wow! A track like this might put tropical storm advisories up for the coast of Guyana and because they're below sea level the flooding could become significant. The seawall is not that high there either.


They've had a fair amount of rain this season....
Quoting 112. beell:



Click the "Modify Comment" at post 93, place your cursor to the right of the offending language-and backspace until it is gone. Click the "Submit" button.




Thanks
Quoting 115. BahaHurican:

They've had a fair amount of rain this season....
I think anywhere from the grenadines southwards needs to pay close attention to this system..
Quoting 79. SLU:

#Karl is tied w/ Dennis (1981) for least amount of ACE generated by Atlantic TC in 1st 5 days as named storm in satellite era (since 1966)


And yet there will be those that say this season has been an active one, using this and all the other largely ACE-lacking systems the Atlantic has had this year; one look at the ACE and they'd see the true picture.

And yet, even with such inactivity, Hermine came way too close to causing significant problems (1 day more over water would've been awful), so having so many weakling systems is still very concerning, as any one of them could've lifted a few weights then threw those weights at us at great speeds.
Quoting 79. SLU:

#Karl is tied w/ Dennis (1981) for least amount of ACE generated by Atlantic TC in 1st 5 days as named storm in satellite era (since 1966)


The year of the underacheiver.
BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAINE ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172016
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 20 2016

...PAINE GOES AWAY...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY.


lol
NHC mentions in 11 pm update Karl remaining a 35kt storm could be generous based on a recent ASCAT. This means he is weaker and more of a depression then anything right now although intensity is kept as a tropical storm. Karl is struggling and may until a turn to the north occurs.
Quoting 96. George1938:


Jesus Christ calm down. it's an expression.

On the other hand. Climate change, yes it is clearly something that is occurring. But we can debate the causes endlessly still lol.

No, the cause of the current warming can't be debated endlessly if we want to use science to determine the cause. The cause is clearly and overwhelmingly human activity, primarily burning of fossil fuels. There may be some other contributing factors, but they are negligible.

I think Karl is reorganizing. What do your think.
Quoting 125. HurricaneAndre:


I think Karl is reorganizing. What do your think.

The convection is over a degree and a half (about 90 nm) removed from the center, which is almost to 57*E at this point. Karl is not a healthy system right now.

We all know that this lowrider fiasco on the models won't last long... At least 3 or 4 times this season the GFS has produced a low rider. The HWRF sent Earl to my doorstep (Barbados) as a Cat 2 and it ended up just south of PR instead as a struggling wave. I don't buy low riders this season, nor do I buy robust strength coming from the MDR...
128. SLU
Quoting 120. AldreteMichael:



And yet there will be those that say this season has been an active one, using this and all the other largely ACE-lacking systems the Atlantic has had this year; one look at the ACE and they'd see the true picture.

And yet, even with such inactivity, Hermine came way too close to causing significant problems (1 day more over water would've been awful), so having so many weakling systems is still very concerning, as any one of them could've lifted a few weights then threw those weights at us at great speeds.


Strange season. High in TC count. Very low in ACE.
129. SLU
Quoting 121. LemieT:



The year of the underacheiver.


At this rate it could turn out to be the decade of the underacheiver like the 2000s will be remembered as the decade of destruction.
GFS and some of the other major models latching on to a possible Caribbean storm. Given the time of year I will be watching very closely.

For the record, Florida (where I once lived) has seen 3 cyclones this year: TS Colin, Hurricane Hermine, TS Julia. This year has been as active for central and north Florida as many of the hyperactive seasons of the past. Hopefully whatever the system over Africa becomes- it stays away from areas hit hard by Hermine.
Quoting 128. SLU:



Strange season. High in TC count. Very low in ACE.


Very strange indeed. Not sure what to make of it. In my opinion although people might say otherwise, I don't think we had as many robust waves this season as there have been in seasons gone by. Yes we have had a few but none have really looked that special even the ones that went on to become named storms.
Yep- another year of no seas rising and no hurricanes hitting USA and look - most of the USA is white
And look - record crops - plants love CO2 - http://farmfutures.com/story-record-crops-should-s train-grain-storage-fall-0-145364
Quoting 46. CaribBoy:



Not my year.


Sometimes with this intriguing hobby of ours we have to wait years sometimes many years to experience a cyclone. All that effort and time into tracking storms it can be annoying when they don't do what we want. A low to medium strength tropical storm that doesn't cause flash flooding is fun. Anything stronger I run away.
The Atlantic is sick right now I don't think this low rider system will materialise..
🌙🌉🌊🌎🎑🌃

Three billion-dollar weather disasters for August 2016: Louisiana floods, China drought, U.S. severe weather
According to the August 2016 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield, two billion-dollar weather-related disaster hit the planet in August: a disastrous $10 - $15 billion flood in Louisiana, and a drought in China that cost $1.6 billion. Additionally, a severe weather outbreak in the Plains and Rockies on July 28 - 29 accumulated enough damage claims to be rated a billion-dollar disaster by the end of August. Between January - August 2016, there were 24 billion-dollar weather disasters globally--four fewer than occurred during January - August 2013, the year that ended up with the most billion-dollar weather disasters on record: 41. Here is the tally of billion-dollar weather disasters for January - August 2016:

1) Flooding, Yangtze Basin, China, 5/1 - 8/1, $28.0 billion, 475 killed
2) Flooding, Louisiana (U.S.), 8/9 - 8/16, $10 - $15 Billion, 13 killed
3) Flooding, Germany, France, Austria, Poland, 5/26 - 6/6, $5.5 billion, 17 killed
4) Drought, India, 1/1 - 6/30, $5.0 billion, 0 killed
5) Flooding, Northeast China 7/16 - 7/24, $5.0 billion, 289 killed
6) Wildfire, Fort McMurray, Canada, 5/2- 6/1, $5.0 billion, 0 killed
7) Severe Weather, Plains-Southeast U.S., 4/10 - 4/13, $3.75 billion, 1 killed
8) Severe Weather, Rockies-Plains-Southeast-Midwest U.S., 3/22 - 3/25, $2.5 billion, 0 killed
9) Flooding, China, 6/18 - 6/23, $2.3 billion, 68 killed
10) Winter Weather, East Asia, 1/20 - 1/26, $2.0 billion, 116 killed
11) Tropical Cyclone Roanu, Sri Lanka, India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, China, 5/14 - 5/21, $1.7 billion, 135 killed
12) Severe Weather, Plains-Midwest U.S., 4/29 - 5/3, $1.6 billion, 6 killed
13) Drought, China, 1/1 - 3/1, $1.6 billion, 0 killed
14) Drought, Zimbabwe, 6/1 - 8/10, $1.6 billion, 0 killed
15) Severe Weather, Plains-Midwest-Southeast-Northeast U.S., 3/4 - 3/12, $1.5 billion, 6 killed
16) Typhoon Nepartak, Philippines, Taiwan, China, 7/8 - 7/9, $1.5 billion, 111 killed
17) Severe Weather, Plains-Southeast U.S., 3/17 - 3/18, $1.4 billion, 0 killed
18) Flooding, Argentina and Uruguay, 4/4 - 4/10, $1.3 billion, 0 killed
19) Severe Weather, Plains-Midwest-Southeast-Northeast U.S., 2/22 - 2/25, $1.2 billion, 10 killed
20) Severe Weather, Plains-Midwest U.S., 5/21 - 5/28, $1.1 billion, 1 killed
21) Severe Weather, Netherlands, 6/23 - 6/24, $1.1 billion, 0 killed
22) Severe Weather, Plains-Rockies U.S., 7/28 - 7/29, $1.0 billion, 0 killed
23) Tropical Cyclone Winston, Fiji, 2/16 - 2/22, $1.0 billion, 44 killed
24) Winter Weather, Eastern U.S., 1/21 - 1/24, $1.0 billion, 58 killed



www.co2.earth

Atmospheric CO2

August 2016

402.24
parts per million (ppm)

Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii (Scripps Keeling Curve)



20th depression with gale warnings issued

Japan Meteorological Agency
9:00 AM JST September 21 2016
==================================

GALE WARNINGS

Near Truk Waters (Chuuk)
At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 10.0N 152.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 20 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
==============
24 HRS: 12.5N 145.0E - 35 knots (Tropical Storm/CAT 1) Marianas Islands
Quoting 132. tampaENG:

Yep- another year of no seas rising and no hurricanes hitting USA and look - most of the USA is white
And look - record crops - plants love CO2 - http://farmfutures.com/story-record-crops-should-s train-grain-storage-fall-0-145364


Incorrect. Seas have risen, and a hurricane did hit the USA. Or never mind, you might be right, Hermine was a huge summer time snowstorm disguised as a hurricane as part of an elaborate media hoax perpetrated by the Illuminati Reptilian Alien US Government.

While plants loving CO2 sounds wonderful, the other numerous impacts of AGW are so severe any CO2 plant food frenzy will be overshadowed unfortunately.
🌉🌙🌎🎑🌃

166. Kethern
12:07 PM CDT on September 16, 2016

5 +
Quoting 164. Patrap:

When was the last time the Earth saw a single cool biased monthly Avg temp?




According to NOAA's July climate analysis it was December 1984.

Action: Quote | Ignore User
140. SLU
Quoting 131. LemieT:



Very strange indeed. Not sure what to make of it. In my opinion although people might say otherwise, I don't think we had as many robust waves this season as there have been in seasons gone by. Yes we have had a few but none have really looked that special even the ones that went on to become named storms.


Yes the wave train was weaker than even last year IMO. However, we have seen some very large waves with significant circulations among those that made it to invest and TC status.
Super Major coming,hoping it doesn't zig zag Castro again.
Quoting 131. LemieT:



Very strange indeed. Not sure what to make of it. In my opinion although people might say otherwise, I don't think we had as many robust waves this season as there have been in seasons gone by. Yes we have had a few but none have really looked that special even the ones that went on to become named storms.


I think the opposite, we've had very robust waves this year but they've been shut out by dry air and shear at least temporarily (Gaston)
143. JRRP7
CMC
I meant GEM
DOOOMMMM!!!

Quoting 119. Patrap:




Whazzat?
Quoting 130. GrandCaymanMed:

GFS and some of the other major models latching on to a possible Caribbean storm. Given the time of year I will be watching very closely.

For the record, Florida (where I once lived) has seen 3 cyclones this year: TS Colin, Hurricane Hermine, TS Julia. This year has been as active for central and north Florida as many of the hyperactive seasons of the past. Hopefully whatever the system over Africa becomes- it stays away from areas hit hard by Hermine.


How many hurricanes did they have back in 2005?
Quoting 144. GTstormChaserCaleb:

DOOOMMMM!!!




Hmmmm.

Quoting 132. tampaENG:

Yep- another year of no seas rising and no hurricanes hitting USA and look - most of the USA is white
And look - record crops - plants love CO2 - http://farmfutures.com/story-record-crops-should-s train-grain-storage-fall-0-145364


Humans love oxygen. So let's triple the atmospheric concentration of oxygen and enjoy...until the first forest fire. That's my way of pointing out the bum logic in your post.

Both of your factual claims are wrong, as others have pointed out.

It's a great time to be a NY Giants fan. We've got some incredible receivers and a stout D. Just saying...

Quoting 96. George1938:


Jesus Christ calm down. it's an expression.

On the other hand. Climate change, yes it is clearly something that is occurring. But we can debate the causes endlessly still lol.


Only if you ignore physics, chemistry, and thermodynamics. Otherwise, the cause is pretty obvious.

94E / Roslyn getting organized at a low latitude southwest of Mexico.
Quoting 132. tampaENG:
Yep- another year of no seas rising


Only if you want to ignore global tide gauge measurements, radar altimetry, etc.

Quoting 132. tampaENG:
and no hurricanes hitting USA and look


Climate is not weather. Cyclogenesis and the path a storm takes is based on weather. Climate influences the weather, but does not dictate it.

Quoting 132. tampaENG:
- most of the USA is white


Which means jack when talking about a global average.

Quoting 132. tampaENG:
And look - record crops - plants love CO2 - http://farmfutures.com/story-record-crops-should-s train-grain-storage-fall-0-145364


The record crops are due to conducive weather conditions during the growing season, not CO2 levels. The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is a few ppm different than the previous year, which has a negligible impact on plant metabolism.

This isn't WUWT.
153. ackee
If the GFS and the cmc pans out with the future system storm that track near the windward into the carribbean on a southern route two storm comes to my mind that were very strong strong Flora and Hazel
Quoting 147. TheBigBanana:



Hmmmm.


Throwing some juju beads in the gulf in the morning.
Ice changes may mean chopper resupply
Southern Ocean sea ice has gone from record highs to record lows within two years in a change that has sparked a re-think of Australia's Antarctic missions.
Source: AAP, 21 Sep 2016 - 3:20pm
Australia will adopt plan-B for some of its Antarctic resupply missions as record-low levels of sea ice create access challenges ahead of the busy summer research season.
Two years ago scientists warned of a worrying increase in winter sea ice across the Southern Ocean with some commentators quick to blame global warming for the change, but the latest data has shown a stark turnaround.
Measurements in September to date show an earlier-than-usual annual dissipation of the thin layer of ice which covers the water during winter.
It's forced the Australian Antarctic Division to re-think its "over-ice" resupply of Davis Station using heavy machinery to offload the icebreaker Aurora Australis.
"While our regular drilling program on the sea ice in front of Davis is still showing it's thick enough to drive on, we may have to use helicopter sling loads if the ice isn't solid enough when Aurora Australis arrives at the beginning of November," AAD operations manager Robb Clifton said on Wednesday.
Satellite imagery has also shown a breakdown of "fast ice", which connects the sea ice to land and could pose problems. ...
Looks like Karl is a depression. Will he get his act together. Also Lisa is making a run to hurricane status. ADT numbers show 60mph winds and Dvorak numbers show 3.0/3.0.
Is also appears that we have consensus so early in the game with the low rider. GFS, Euro,CMC, Ukmet, and ensembles. This is getting interesting. Mention probably by next Monday or this weekend.
158. ackee
Quoting 157. HurricaneAndre:

Is also appears that we have consensus so early in the game with the low rider. GFS, Euro,CMC, Ukmet, and ensembles. This is getting interesting. Mention probably by next Monday or this weekend. Agree the cmc and the GFS as the system further south while Euro as the system in the north east carribbean this weekend runs should be interesting to watch
Quoting 147. TheBigBanana:



Hmmmm.


by say this coming Monday,we should see if the models are still mentioning this possible storm,too far out in time and GFS keeps advancing the day when it supposedly gets into the gulf,it started out saying 10-5 then next day 10-6 and now today its 10-7
I won't believe it until it happens. Models have struggled for the most part this season.
Quoting 159. LargoFl:

by say this coming Monday,we should see if the models are still mentioning this possible storm,too far out in time and GFS keeps advancing the day when it supposedly gets into the gulf,it started out saying 10-5 then next day 10-6 and now today its 10-7
I am beginning to get more interested in the Caribbean as an area worthy of being monitored. I don't think the GFS or ECMWF solutions look too unreasonable. The Caribbean is the one area in the basin aside from the Gulf of Mexico that hasn't been ridden with shear.
162. SLU
Lixion Avila is well known for saying it as it is.


000
WTNT42 KNHC 210835
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016
500 AM AST WED SEP 21 2016

Karl's structure is very difficult to determine this morning.
Satellite data indicate that the low-level center moved westward
far away from the convection, and currently it is hard to say if
Karl possess a closed circulation or not. Assuming that it still
does, the maximum winds are estimated generously at 30 kt, since the
cloud pattern has become less organized. I would not be surprised if
early visible satellite images will reveal that the cyclone has
degenerated into a broad area of low pressure.

Global models have totally failed so far in forecasting the
upper-level winds surrounding Karl. The upper-low near Karl which
unanimously all models have been forecasting to weaken is still
strong and producing shear over the cyclone. Given such a resilient
shear pattern, additional weakening is anticipated today. However,
most of the models are still predicting a favorable pattern for
intensification, and on this basis as well as continuity, the NHC
forecast calls for some strengthening beyond 36 hours while Karl
moves away from the hostile tropics. By the end of the forecast
period, Karl should be rapidly losing tropical characteristics
while it interacts with the mid-latitude flow.


The initial motion is also highly uncertain, giving that we have
been following the low-cloud swirl defining the alleged center. The
best estimate is toward the west or 280 degrees at 12 kt. Karl is
approaching the southwestern edge of the subtropical ridge, and this
pattern should result in a turn to the northwest and then north
during the following two days. After that time, a sharp recurvature
is anticipated around the northwestern portion of the subtropical
high and ahead of a mid-latitude shortwave. This sharp recurvature
is the solution provided by most of the track models, and the NHC
forecast is in the middle if the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 20.2N 57.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 20.9N 59.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 23.0N 61.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 25.0N 64.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 27.0N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 30.0N 64.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 35.5N 56.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 26/0600Z 43.0N 42.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Avila
I wouldn't sit around holding my breath and trusting models on more than 3 day runs. Every time or good majority of time they show these big storms near Caribbean or gulf and then poof there's nothing much to look at. Not saying it's possible but this year storms have had a very tough time making it all the way across without being bombarded by SAL and shear or ULL causing issues. Best chance in my opinion is something forming near the US to have best chance of survival.
Quoting 163. kallenjrtx:

I wouldn't sit around holding my breath and trusting models on more than 3 day runs. Every time or good majority of time they show these big storms near Caribbean or gulf and then poof there's nothing much to look at. Not saying it's possible but this year storms have had a very tough time making it all the way across without being bombarded by SAL and shear or ULL causing issues. Best chance in my opinion is something forming near the US to have best chance of survival.


Your correct in your assessment with regards to the lower Jet stream, IMO this pattern should break with the next two weeks, thus interrupting the formation of a tropical disturbance.
166. SLU
Whatever happens with the low rider intensity-wise next week, it will not be getting out of the Caribbean anytime soon.

Interesting.
Karl had more wind shear problems then models ever thought. Threw us all off, Karl might not survive the day, not saying it won't but it's all going to depend if it can remain a closed low. Lisa however is doing very well.
Can anyone tell me how to successfully ignore a blogger? I seem to just get redirected to my blog page.
Quoting 169. WeatherkidJoe2323:

Karl had more wind shear problems then models ever thought. Threw us all off, Karl might not survive the day, not saying it won't but it's all going to depend if it can remain a closed low. Lisa however is doing very well.
No doubt the models this year have consistently underestimated how tenacious the adverse conditions are. However the CV seeds somehow seem to stay barely alive until they get further west and then start winding up. All in all, I'm not complaining. I like tracking storms but I don't want a biggun anywhere near the US. I don't wish 'em on anyone else either.

That's an eye, which has been evident for 6-12 hours.
Oh My God.....STILL?


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
618 AM EDT Wed Sep 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture associated with the remnants of Julia will get drawn into
the area and linger for several days. Some drying is expected on
Saturday followed by a cold front on Sunday. High pressure will
build in early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 618 AM Wednesday...Long-loop regional mosaic radar data
shows well the trend of periodic shower clsuters dropping south-
southwest over the interior zones on the west periphery of a low
pressure center, now approaching Cape Fear early this morning.
Occasional drizzle and mist this morning will prevail over
land areas but dense fog is not expected to gain a foothold. There
were no significant changes with the daybreak updates, and the
previous discussion follows.

The upper low in capturing Julia`s low-level circulation will
draw her center SSW-ward from eastern NC early this morning, to
the NE SC coastline by this evening. Most rainfall will occur west
of her low-center while moving to the SSW, and inland pop values
will run higher today, although any location will have a shot at
showers. This set-up could favor training of rain showers along a
zone of convergence oriented SW to NE across the interior of NE SC
AND SE NC late this afternoon, and concurrently onshore flow will
be increasing over the region as the low dips south over the area.
Clouds and showers will keep maximums muted today, mainly upper
70s to low 80s. As the low center settles perhaps just offshore of
NE SC tonight, am expecting scattered showers to track landward
over the forecast area, and certainly into the overnight period as
moisture deepens, rainfall could become heavy at times along the
coast late tonight and early Thursday.
174. JRRP7
where is WKC ?
Quoting 172. NunoLava1998:


That's an eye, which has been evident for 6-12 hours.


EDIT: I just realized the satellite imagery failed yet again. It has been like 3 hours since 8:30 UTC.
Quoting 174. JRRP7:

where is WKC ?



That may be 312 hrs out but it's the GFS, not the CMC....gulp
...KARL LOSING THE BATTLE AGAINST THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT PREVAILING IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

That's mid-September for you. Wait...
Despite another weak season, we have one more chance to get a decent looking storm. This caribbean cruiser might be our last chance since all the models develop it.
Quoting 178. wunderweatherman123:

Despite another weak season, we have one more chance to get a decent looking storm. This caribbean cruiser might be our last chance since all the models develop it.
All the models develop it ?
180. MahFL
Well the models did a bang up job with Karl...
181. Tcwx2
A lot.
Quoting 146. pureet1948:



How many hurricanes did they have back in 2005?
good news and bad news here in Funchal.
Good news:
a temperature inversion, which is a extremely rare occurence, is currently happening.
Bad news:
that inversion seems like it's making thunderstorms form.
Mmm? Maybe a new center reforming NE of Karl?
I have a question prompted by the GISTEMP anomaly graph posted above. Earth's temperature has been kept since 1880. I'm assuming this number is an average global temp so there would have to be X number of locations across the globe where temps are taken at certain times and then averaged. Correct me if I'm wrong, please. With all the technology around today, this would not be a very difficult task. But in 1880, how did they do it? How has the process changed over the years from then until today? How does that affect the comparisons between those early years and today?

Are there any documents out there I could read to learn about this?

Thanks in advance. :-)
wont karl move west now that is so weak . for now.......
What the heck is this? First I've seen or heard of this blob
187. ackee
Both the Euro and GFS shows different solution as to where this future systems develops I think that will be key the GFS say more southern track while Euro show system south of PR interesting times ahead
Quoting 144. GTstormChaserCaleb:

DOOOMMMM!!!




Well, it's in the Caribbean Hot Tub.
189. FOREX
Quoting 174. JRRP7:

where is WKC ?

Alaska.
Good Morning Folks; the global tropics today.  Karl and then Julia are no threat to land which is a good thing and up to the 10th storm for the Atlantic this year and no major impacts on the US.  The Louisiana no-name storm, which was arguably a tropical system fed by moisture from the Gulf, has had the worst impacts on the US this summer so far.
Also note all of the convective activity around Central America and the lower BOC but sheer is keeping everything in check down there.

Combined image of all basins   
p 39 last one doubt it. nature likes to repeat itself
Pretty good consensus on the GFS ensembles about the potential Caribbean cruiser. The ECMWF is also starting to latch on board but takes the system further north under the influence of the trough, thus disrupting the system. We'll see if this is a trend towards the GFS or not, but it's definitely something to watch.

Quoting 130. GrandCaymanMed:

GFS and some of the other major models latching on to a possible Caribbean storm. Given the time of year I will be watching very closely.

For the record, Florida (where I once lived) has seen 3 cyclones this year: TS Colin, Hurricane Hermine, TS Julia. This year has been as active for central and north Florida as many of the hyperactive seasons of the past. Hopefully whatever the system over Africa becomes- it stays away from areas hit hard by Hermine.


Early runs in the last few days showed future 97L coming towards FL, then yesterday it started showing it staying south. Then this morning it showed it in FL again, hitting the big bend area as a hurricane no less (Hermine 2.0).

Me thinks Karl (maybe an open wave now) is so weak he is going further west than the models say. I think the recurve will take him between US and Bermuda .
This blog is completely busted. There's no reason comments shouldn't be appearing for an hour straight on a regular basis, especially when there's not even a major storm out in the Atlantic.
i say what the point on having the blogs any more if we cant blog on them? this blog hole thing is getting vary old and there too lazy too fix it this is happening like 2 too 3 times a day and it seems like its happening ever 2 too 3 hrs at a time

this is getting vary old
Quoting 147. TheBigBanana:



Hmmmm.




Go home, GFS, you're drunk!
Quoting 174. JRRP7:

where is WKC ?



Landfall in the Big Bend of Florida at 384 hours.
That would be the third system to landfall in that area this season (IF).
Das blog ist kaput. Again. :(
I see the blog is acting up again, my post from 20 mins ago still hasn't shown up yet. Posting this at 8:36am.
I always thought weather caused the climate, not the other way 'round, since climate is just the sum-total of all the weather that has occurred. For that reason, if asked if a certain storm was caused by climate change, I would answer no. Rather, it is the cause of climate change. If you bowl, a game-score is the weather, your average is the climate. If you golf, today's score is the weather, your handicap is the climate. In baseball, each at-bat is the weather, your batting average is the climate. You can see it takes extreme events to move these very stable averages. Think of Ted Williams' last game in 1941 when he moved his average just a few 10 thousandths of a point to finish .406 -- they had to go out to the 5th decimal.
Blog down again
Quoting 194. Autistic2:

Me thinks Karl (maybe an open wave now) is so weak he is going further west than the models say. I think the recurve will take him between US and Bermuda .


Looking that way if the storm nudges further West at this point: I was incorrect on my earlier comment that Karl was no threat to land.................Bermuda is in play.

[Image of 5-day forecast and coastal areas under a warning or a watch]

Maybe the Blog issue is a simple fix; has anyone checked the the wires behind the outlet where the servers are plugged in or maybe no surge protector?........................................ . :(
Quoting 177. win1gamegiantsplease:

...KARL LOSING THE BATTLE AGAINST THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT PREVAILING IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

That's mid-September for you. Wait...
But people who were pointing out the hostile conditions in the Atlantic were called crazies back in July.Now the NHC points it out.Opps..and since this is 2016 I would literally have to see the "caribbean cruiser" in live action and not on some model 200+ hours out.Watch some unforeseen ULL stall out in the caribbean and cause high shear.
Quoting 189. FOREX:

Alaska.
Quoting 196. thetwilightzone:

i say what the point on having the blogs any more if we cant blog on them? this blog hole thing is getting vary old and there too lazy too fix it this is happening like 2 too 3 times a day and it seems like its happening ever 2 too 3 hrs at a time

this is getting vary old
It keeps repeating. It's like that episode of the Twilight Zone with the U-Boat commander.
Quoting 170. DogtownMex:

Can anyone tell me how to successfully ignore a blogger? I seem to just get redirected to my blog page.
It's really easy. My ignore list is now up to 229. Just click on 'ignore' link under the post of the person you want to ignore, then on the next page you should see your current ignore list with tha last on that list being the new one you're trying to ignore. Then at the bottom of that page, click 'update this list'.
.
moderate to light rain all night e cen fl.
Big unanticipated rain here today. The traffic jam from Chicago to O'Hare is two hours, not the normal 1/2 hr., because of a little rain. Extremely dark skies, the sun never rose this morning.
Quoting 184. edover60:

I have a question prompted by the GISTEMP anomaly graph posted above. Earth's temperature has been kept since 1880. I'm assuming this number is an average global temp so there would have to be X number of locations across the globe where temps are taken at certain times and then averaged. Correct me if I'm wrong, please. With all the technology around today, this would not be a very difficult task. But in 1880, how did they do it? How has the process changed over the years from then until today? How does that affect the comparisons between those early years and today?

Are there any documents out there I could read to learn about this?

Thanks in advance. :-)

You might find this helpful: Link
Quoting 201. jimijr:

I always thought weather caused the climate, not the other way 'round, since climate is just the sum-total of all the weather that has occurred. For that reason, if asked if a certain storm was caused by climate change, I would answer no. Rather, it is the cause of climate change. If you bowl, a game-score is the weather, your average is the climate. If you golf, today's score is the weather, your handicap is the climate. In baseball, each at-bat is the weather, your batting average is the climate. You can see it takes extreme events to move these very stable averages. Think of Ted Williams' last game in 1941 when he moved his average just a few 10 thousandths of a point to finish .406 -- they had to go out to the 5th decimal.

Some weather phenomena could only occur in a changed climate. In such cases it is valid to call climate change the cause.
Quoting 122. thetwilightzone:

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAINE ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172016
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 20 2016

...PAINE GOES AWAY...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY.


lol


Brilliant, quite humorously punned...a showcase of some meteorological wit at its best. There is undoubtedly a 'lighter side' to the rationale applied for selection of names in a given season/ tropical basin.

Blessings!
Quoting 201. jimijr:

I always thought weather caused the climate, not the other way 'round, since climate is just the sum-total of all the weather that has occurred. For that reason, if asked if a certain storm was caused by climate change, I would answer no. Rather, it is the cause of climate change. If you bowl, a game-score is the weather, your average is the climate. If you golf, today's score is the weather, your handicap is the climate. In baseball, each at-bat is the weather, your batting average is the climate. You can see it takes extreme events to move these very stable averages. Think of Ted Williams' last game in 1941 when he moved his average just a few 10 thousandths of a point to finish .406 -- they had to go out to the 5th decimal.

Your sports analogies are not applicable to weather and climate. Sports averages cannot have any effect on your next at-bat or frame. That's not the case with weather and climate. Climate forcings have a very large effect on weather over time. The only way your analogies could work is if we were to move the bowling pins closer together or further apart, or to move the fences and foul lines one way or the other.

Yes, climate is the average of weather over a given time period (usually thirty years), but weather can also be said to be the way that climate is expressed on a day-to-day basis over limited areas of the Earth's surface.
Only 3 more days till the 11th anniversary of Hurricane Rita!
He's in lotsa PAINE!!!

Quoting 217. Misanthroptimist:


Your sports analogies are not applicable to weather and climate. Sports averages cannot have any effect on your next at-bat or frame. That's not the case with weather and climate. Climate forcings have a very large effect on weather over time. The only way your analogies could work is if we were to move the bowling pins closer together or further apart, or to move the fences and foul lines one way or the other.

Yes, climate is the average of weather over a given time period (usually thirty years), but weather can also be said to be the way that climate is expressed on a day-to-day basis over limited areas of the Earth's surface.


Actually if you are in a slump at the plate for the past month, it does have affect on your next at bat, because mentally it just does. lol
Quoting 182. NunoLava1998:

good news and bad news here in Funchal.
Good news:
a temperature inversion, which is a extremely rare occurence, is currently happening.
Bad news:
that inversion seems like it's making thunderstorms form.

Boa sorte com os tempestades. Tenho uma pergunta. Se vives em Funchal, por que falas inglês tão bom?
Quoting 219. 62901IL:

Only 3 more days till the 11th anniversary of Hurricane Rita!


Evacuated on this day (Sep. 21st) into chaos, remember like it was yesterday. In fact it was a Wednesday just like today!

EURO doesn't show a low rider.

Quoting 221. RitaEvac:



Actually if you are in a slump at the plate for the past month, it does have affect on your next at bat, because mentally it just does. lol


Kind of like the MDR for the past month, huh? Maybe it just needs some coaching?
Quoting 216. JohnLonergan:

One picture is worth 10000 words

Timeline of Earth's Average Temperature Since the Last Ice Age Glaciation from xkcd

I love this! Will be printing to show my kids. My oldest is 10 and this is something he can easily interpret. He is big into science and will appreciate it. Thanks so much!
Quoting 126. 1900hurricane:


The convection is over a degree and a half (about 90 nm) removed from the center, which is almost to 57*E at this point. Karl is not a healthy system right now.





Indeed, actually the center of Karl seems to be near 58W, 20.5N...However, Cape Verde type systems are the most resilient and vigorous of Tropical systems -case in point -Par excellence being eventual Hurricane Hermine. I think that Karl convection which is already playing catch-up to its center will do just that. Its possible that with further strengthening just ahead of the more northerly jog that the Northern Lesser Antilles may get some slight brush from the system. Already long period swells from the system are giving rise to waves along the East coast that are approaching 9 feet in some spots.

Also, Re:- Next week's potential Low latitude storm near Trinidad etc.- LemieT may have a point in stating:-
"We all know that this lowrider fiasco on the models won't last long... At least 3 or 4 times this season the GFS has produced a low rider. The HWRF sent Earl to my doorstep (Barbados) as a Cat 2 and it ended up just south of PR instead as a struggling wave. I don't buy low riders this season, nor do I buy robust strength coming from the MDR..."

Nevertheless, As always -time WILL Tell!...

Be ever Vigilant & Let's All keep safe this season.
God Bless!
Hello lads I hear quite a few are asking for me

How are all of you doing

Yes I know about the Caribbean low rider that models are picking up on especially the GFS and I see that recently the rest of the models decided to join in

It freaks me the consistency GFS is having and it is moving down the time line the tropical wave in question is over Africa now and is expected to be offshore by about weekend I'd say

This system we in the Caribbean especially SE and NW Caribbean and in Eastern GOM/Florida absolutely need to watch

A decent hurricane moving over the very high ocean heat content/ TCHP in the W and NW Caribbean is like the ultimate worst case scenario for the NW Caribbean and GOM
Quoting 206. washingtonian115:

But people who were pointing out the hostile conditions in the Atlantic were called crazies back in July.Now the NHC points it out.Opps..and since this is 2016 I would literally have to see the "caribbean cruiser" in live action and not on some model 200 hours out.Watch some unforeseen ULL stall out in the caribbean and cause high shear.


If conditions improve in the WAtl, especially the gulf/caribbean, October still might be our ACE-happy month. Some of the long-range forecasts I've seen show some hope for that. The last few years are how I based my preseason predictions anyhow, not too disappointing in that regard so far, but it'd be nice to have a couple Gastons to track here and there like in 2010.
Quoting 223. RitaEvac:



Evacuated on this day into chaos, remember like it was yesterday. In fact it was a Wednesday just like today!




Hugo's landfall was also today, 27 years ago tonight.
Quoting 201. jimijr:

I always thought weather caused the climate, not the other way 'round, since climate is just the sum-total of all the weather that has occurred. For that reason, if asked if a certain storm was caused by climate change, I would answer no. Rather, it is the cause of climate change. If you bowl, a game-score is the weather, your average is the climate. If you golf, today's score is the weather, your handicap is the climate. In baseball, each at-bat is the weather, your batting average is the climate. You can see it takes extreme events to move these very stable averages. Think of Ted Williams' last game in 1941 when he moved his average just a few 10 thousandths of a point to finish .406 -- they had to go out to the 5th decimal.


As someone else noted, you're analogy is not correct.

A better analogy is rolling dice or drawing cards. Weather is what the dice shows or what card you draw. Climate is how weighted the dice are or how stacked the deck is to begin with.

For example, let's say there is a particular weather event (like a flood) that has a historical chance of happening once every 100 years. But now the planet has warmed, weather patterns have changed, there's more water vapor in the atmosphere, etc. The dice are now "weighted", and now our hypothetical 1 in 100 year event is now a 1 in 10 year event.

Does that mean you'll get a flood every ten years? No. Does that mean the flood will happen in the exact same area? No. It just means that on average over a long period of time, you can expect that kind of flood event to occur with a frequency of about once every ten years in that general area.

A number of people still confuse climate and weather, thinking that somehow climate says "Event X will happen in area Y at future point Z". That simply isn't the case. Climate is about long term trends, averages, and probabilities.
HOLY FETHING GAK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Could someone show the 00z UKMET? Thanks
Quoting 206. washingtonian115:
But people who were pointing out the hostile conditions in the Atlantic were called crazies back in July.Now the NHC points it out.Opps..and since this is 2016 I would literally have to see the "caribbean cruiser" in live action and not on some model 200+ hours out.Watch some unforeseen ULL stall out in the caribbean and cause high shear.
there is no doubt that something is really amiss in the atlantic,has been that way for the last 3 years. just whats causing it I don't know but I wouldn't doubt it has something to do with the continued polar ice melt affecting the whole dynamics
Quoting 229. wunderkidcayman:

Hello lads I hear quite a few are asking for me

How are all of you doing

Yes I know about the Caribbean low rider that models are picking up on especially the GFS and I see that recently the rest of the models decided to join in

It freaks me the consistency GFS is having and it is moving down the time line the tropical wave in question is over Africa now and is expected to be offshore by about weekend I'd say

This system we in the Caribbean especially SE and NW Caribbean and in Eastern GOM/Florida absolutely need to watch

A decent hurricane moving over the very high ocean heat content/ TCHP in the W and NW Caribbean is like the ultimate worst case scenario for the NW Caribbean and GOM


It's really the shear maps and the (water vapor) amount of atmospheric moisture that needs to be watch.

We've had some of the warmest (if not the warmest) sea surface temperatures this season. But due to the abundance of dry air and shear, systems have struggled. Even systems in the Bahamas, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico have struggled this year, even with record warm water temperatures.
Quoting 223. RitaEvac:



Evacuated on this day into chaos, remember like it was yesterday. In fact it was a Wednesday just like today!




I stayed at home in the Clear Lake area even as neighbors evacuated. A very good call on my part in retrospect, but it could just as easily have gone the other way. I also stayed for Ike and the eye passed over me, a long night but it turned out well.
Julia just loves Hampton Roads, won't leave. So many sights to see

Quoting 224. CaribBoy:

EURO doesn't show a low rider.




Actually it kinda
Actually Euro has actually been trending further S and a much stronger system with each run

Also just saying CMC/GEM is on board with the GFS low low rider

But hey don't dispare looking at most of the models they also indicate a possible next system that is further N and still likely to make the Caribbean but more likely maybe NE Caribbean that may just be you system
Quoting 237. Greg01:



I stayed at home in the Clear Lake area even as neighbors evacuated. A very good call on my part in retrospect, but it could just as easily have gone the other way. I also stayed for Ike and the eye passed over me, a long night but it turned out well.


I lived in Pasadena for a while with people who went through Ike. When Bill was coming in we went to the beach and I forced them to tell me the dramatic recount of the event. Then we... well we went swimming and the police had to yell at us. whoopsssss. I have life guard training so for me the water was ohhh sooo perfect.
Quoting 238. VAbeachhurricanes:

Julia just loves Hampton Roads, won't leave. So many sights to see




It wants to detect positrons over in Newport News I guess, or see Michael Vick's house.
Quoting 237. Greg01:



I stayed at home in the Clear Lake area even as neighbors evacuated. A very good call on my part in retrospect, but it could just as easily have gone the other way. I also stayed for Ike and the eye passed over me, a long night but it turned out well.


What part of Clear Lake?
Greg Postel is saying that he thinks we have entered in a long period of lower activity throughout the mdr. The hyper period that began in 1995 just might be over for many many years.
Karl's convection definitely seems to be catching up to its center of circulation- now located near 20.5N/ 58W...and its still appears to be heading straight WEST at this point. St. Maarten, and some of the more Northerly Leeward islands should monitor the progress of Karl a bit more carefully. Marine interests should already have taken some precautions also. Better safe than sorry- All the time...

God Bless!
today sept 21

is
International day of peace day



Link
watch for me xXDoomBuggyXx
Quoting 233. 62901IL:

HOLY FETHING GAK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!



The Pacific loves to dazzle
Quoting 244. Bucsboltsfan:

Greg Postel is saying that he thinks we have entered in a long period of lower activity throughout the mdr. The hyper period that began in 1995 just might be over for many many years.


It's been over since 2008. So we are 8 years into the lull.
249. ackee
Quoting 229. wunderkidcayman:

Hello lads I hear quite a few are asking for me

How are all of you doing

Yes I know about the Caribbean low rider that models are picking up on especially the GFS and I see that recently the rest of the models decided to join in

It freaks me the consistency GFS is having and it is moving down the time line the tropical wave in question is over Africa now and is expected to be offshore by about weekend I'd say

This system we in the Caribbean especially SE and NW Caribbean and in Eastern GOM/Florida absolutely need to watch

A decent hurricane moving over the very high ocean heat content/ TCHP in the W and NW Caribbean is like the ultimate worst case scenario for the NW Caribbean and GOM agree good point as usual
Quoting 207. Llamaluvr:

It keeps repeating. It's like that episode of the Twilight Zone with the U-Boat commander.
groundhog day
Quoting 248. RitaEvac:



It's been over since 2008. So we are 8 years into the lull.


I agree, but most won't let it go.
Quoting 236. Sfloridacat5:



It's really the shear maps and the (water vapor) amount of atmospheric moisture that needs to be watch.

We've had some of the warmest (if not the warmest) sea surface temperatures this season. But due to the abundance of dry air and shear, systems have struggled. Even systems in the Bahamas, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico have struggled this year, even with record warm water temperatures.


Actually shear overall for the tropical MDR and Caribbean has been mostly on the low side since like early Sept yes the was the occasional then band of higher shear but overall it was lower shear however N of the Caribbean and within the Bahamas and SW Atlantic and N of MDR N of 20N has been more higher shear than lower shear

And similar with the dry air in more recent times in those same areas the air has become more moist with the occasional bouts of dry air that accompanies the strips of higher shear


Also one major thing to help the upcoming Caribbean system is the arrival of the CC Kelvin Wave at the same time as the system
Quoting 243. RitaEvac:



What part of Clear Lake?


My subdivision is Bay Glen with Clear Lake City Blvd to its north, Space Center to the east, Pineloch to the south and El Camino Real to the west. It's about 3.5 miles north of the Johnson Space Center.
Quoting 236. Sfloridacat5:



It's really the shear maps and the (water vapor) amount of atmospheric moisture that needs to be watch.

We've had some of the warmest (if not the warmest) sea surface temperatures this season. But due to the abundance of dry air and shear, systems have struggled. Even systems in the Bahamas, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico have struggled this year, even with record warm water temperatures.


Shear might decrease over the mdr several months from now, if we do indeed transition into a full-blown La Nina. We're cooler than average in the EPAC, but not that far from the mean. Being in a transition year from one of (if not the) strongest El Nino on record is likely an important factor.

La Nina forecast downgraded as trade winds remain moderate [Link]
Quoting 239. wunderkidcayman:



Actually it kinda
Actually Euro has actually been trending further S and a much stronger system with each run

Also just saying CMC/GEM is on board with the GFS low low rider

But hey don't dispare looking at most of the models they also indicate a possible next system that is further N and still likely to make the Caribbean but more likely maybe NE Caribbean that may just be you system


I think it's that it is pretty evident whatever the models show, it won't be much. Conditions just are not favorable across the mdr.
256. JRRP
Quoting 234. CaribBoy:

Could someone show the 00z UKMET? Thanks

Quoting 253. Greg01:



My subdivision is Bay Glen with Clear Lake City Blvd to its north, Space Center to the east, Pineloch to the south and El Camino Real to the west. It's about 3.5 miles north of the Johnson Space Center.


Ward Elementary school in there
Quoting 255. Bucsboltsfan:



I think it's that it is pretty evident whatever the models show, it won't be much. Conditions just are not favorable across the mdr.


Well you got to remember as we get to the Oct/Nov part of the season the MDR is supposed to be lesser and lesser favoured and we turn to the Caribbean GOM and SW Atlantic for development

So looking at the time frame and what GFS I'm not suprised this kinda system is what I'd expect to see in late Sept/Oct
Quoting 211. islander101010:

moderate to light rain all night e cen fl.
That's good. I know that you guys have really needed it there. For the past two days we (in NEFl) have had very heavy pop up typical summertime type thunderstorms...the first we've had all summer-very weird but very nice. Makes me feel like all is right with the world (I know that's weird too)
Look at the Caribbean. Nothing will survive that.

261. rdMac
Just another few tenths of a degree colder in Vostok and the CO2 will start to freeze out of the atmosphere...well, temporarily.

Almost on cue, we had our first real raindrops since Spring here in the SF Bay Area as the first Autumn front is pushing through NorCal this AM.
Great Barrier Reef coral dead, damaged from bleaching event, survey finds

New images of the northern Great Barrier Reef have revealed more evidence of the long-term impact of this year's coral bleaching event.

It has been nearly four months since aerial and underwater surveys revealed bleaching had killed 35 per cent of coral in central and northern parts of the Great Barrier Reef.

The Climate Council's Tim Flannery was part of a team that has visited a popular offshore reef about 54 kilometres from Port Douglas.

"We wanted to see how much repair there'd been, but the coral we saw bleached and in danger a few months back has now mostly died," Professor Flannery said.
"On top of that we've seen a whole lot of new damage, a whole lot of white coral out there that's been killed by Crown of Thorns starfish because it was too weak to defend itself.

"I think it's going to take years to recover."


Link
Quoting 248. RitaEvac:


It's been over since 2008. So we are 8 years into the lull.
True, also seems that every storm that does form is in a constant struggle with either strong shear, dry air, ect,ect. The good old days of frequent cat 3,4 storms are gone- now it's a big deal if we have a cat 1 to track
Giant Gravity Waves Smashed Key Atmospheric Clock During Winter of 2016 — Possible Climate Change Link

Two [climate change] effects [of Arctic warming] are identified … : 1) weakened zonal winds, and 2) increased [Rossby] wave amplitude. These effects are particularly evident in autumn and winter consistent with sea-ice loss… Slower progression of upper-level waves would cause associated weather patterns in mid-latitudes to be more persistent, which may lead to an increased probability of extreme weather events … — Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes, Dr. Jennifer Francis and Dr. Stephen Vavrus, Geophysical Research Letters (emphasis added)

The recent disruption in the quasi-biennial oscillation was not predicted, not even one month ahead. — Dr. Scott Osprey

This unexpected disruption to the climate system switches the cycling of the quasi-biennial oscillation forever. — Professor Adam Scaife

…scientists believe that the quasi-biennial oscillation could become more susceptible to similar disruptions as the climate warms. — Physics.org (emphasis added)


Link
Quoting 257. RitaEvac:



Ward Elementary school in there


Yep, about 3 blocks away from my house. Got an unexpected thunderstorm yesterday around 4:00pm (just to keep it weatherly)
Quoting 255. Bucsboltsfan:



I think it's that it is pretty evident whatever the models show, it won't be much. Conditions just are not favorable across the mdr.


This time of the season the waves are coming off further to the South and development gets pushed back until system is near the lesser Antilles or until it's in the Caribbean

This is one thing I mentioned early this year before the season is that I thought the Atlantic MDR this year will be relatively quiet and that most of the activity will be Caribbean GOM SW Atlantic off the E Coast and so far overall I've been right storms just haven't been doing too much between the lesser Antilles and Cabo Verde with the exception of maybe one or two
Quoting 260. Bucsboltsfan:

Look at the Caribbean. Nothing will survive that.




You look at it now yeah but look at it in a week or so it's a completely different story

So by the time the system gets into the Caribbean shear map will look very different
Quoting 245. NatureIsle:

Karl's convection definitely seems to be catching up to its center of circulation- now located near 20.5N/ 58W...and its still appears to be heading straight WEST at this point. St. Maarten, and some of the more Northerly Leeward islands should monitor the progress of Karl a bit more carefully. Marine interests should already have taken some precautions also. Better safe than sorry- All the time...

God Bless!


reporting live from st.maarten we are already getting some showers from this system nothing much but we are watching this carefully
Today (hope I don't sound annoying this is my storm though :}) Is the 78th anniversary of The Great New England Hurricane of 1938. I could go on a massive ramble but I will let this NWS link do that for me Link
I remember I had to do a paper on something of my choice for a class a while back so I chose New England Hurricane History. Where I worked at the time there was this ancient woman who remembered this storm. Even with her being in central NH at that time (7yrs old) she said the roof to the barn got blown off. She watched from the window as tree after tree fell. I have fear of this happening again because most people are completely clueless. They do not even know the Fox Point Barrier at Providence is actually for hurricanes >___< I did a survey there once 40% of people never heard of this storm. another 30% had but knew nothing really about its strength and the rest knew all about it who happened to be older folks. That one I just did out of curiosity lol
img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">
At 5 am Karl was really trucking at 14 mph West.
Seems Karl continues to struggle, good news for Bermuda.



Judging from the visible, the center looks to be around ~21N, ~57W where some convection is firing. Will be watching him closely as it still has a chance of undergoing RI in a couple days time.
Some GFS models





Showers + lightening+ Thunder = Karl. Home would be the best place for this type of weather, not work. My kind of weather though. CaribBoy, is it raining in your "neck of the woods"?
Karl moving WNW at 9 mph at 11
All those Russian fire and smoke images we’ve been seeing , well the Siberian Times has a new report up, and it ain’t good –

Oil pipes threatened by forest fires amid disputes over the scale of destruction

By The Siberian Times reporter 20 September 2016

Greenpeace claims up to 300 times more territory in Siberia is ablaze than officially acknowledged.

Officials on Tuesday acknowledged a 20% rise in forest fires in the past 24 hours but campaigning group Greenpeace alleged that state agencies are hugely underestimating the scope of the problem.
It was hard to independently verify the contradictory claims but a fire threat to the Eastern Siberia – Pacific Ocean (ESPO) pipeline led Irkutsk Oil Company to suspend supplies of oil, said the official representative of Transneft, Igor Demin.
‘The situation with the fires in Irkutsk region and the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) remains difficult,’ he said. ‘There are six wildfires less than in five kilometres from the ESPO facilities. Fires were as close as 300 metres from key pipeline facilities, he said.
Social media pictures show the worrying impact of forest fires in remote areas.


Link
Quoting 260. Bucsboltsfan:

Look at the Caribbean. Nothing will survive that.




Wind shear isn't static though. Most models are in agreement that wind shear will fall a lot over the Caribbean and MDR from late September and into October. In fact the models are in quite good agreement on that, which should mean that October will need to be watched closely:



Quoting 273. Grothar:

Some GFS models







I am completely OK with a moderate storm postponing my mid-terms.
NASA’s CORAL Mission Turns Its Eyes to Australia’s Great Barrier Reef

NASA has turned one of its aerial instruments toward Australia’s Great Barrier Reef, in an effort to study the destruction of this natural wonder and other coral reefs around the world.

The agency’s aptly titled CORAL mission (short for COral Reef Airborne Laboratory) will study four major coral-reef systems using data gathered by an instrument mounted in the belly of an airplane.

The CORAL team set up camp in Australia earlier this month, and after some bad-weather days, the first science flights over the Great Barrier Reef took place Sept. 9, a NASA representative told Space.com.


Link
Quoting 248. RitaEvac:



It's been over since 2008. So we are 8 years into the lull.
*2010.That was the last time the MDR saw numerous majors without the storms struggling that much.After that....well....
Quoting 266. Greg01:



Yep, about 3 blocks away from my house. Got an unexpected thunderstorm yesterday around 4:00pm (just to keep it weatherly)


Didn't get a drop at my place.
Quoting 238. VAbeachhurricanes:

Julia just loves Hampton Roads, won't leave. So many sights to see




I see Chesapeake and Portsmouth just got a Flood Warning?


Flat seas, light winds.. and a CB to the west.
284. MahFL
Quoting 262. BayFog:


Almost on cue, we had our first real raindrops since Spring here in the SF Bay Area as the first Autumn front is pushing through NorCal this AM.


Lets hope CA gets a long wet winter....
285. MahFL
Quoting 273. Grothar:

Some GFS models...


They are technically ensemble member runs of the same model, you know that.
Quoting 274. wadadlian:

Showers + lightening+ Thunder = Karl. Home would be the best place for this type of weather, not work. My kind of weather though. CaribBoy, is it raining in your "neck of the woods"?


Yes a nice shower in the SW side of the island. I was watching the beautiful CB growing :)

Quoting 268. wunderkidcayman:



You look at it now yeah but look at it in a week or so it's a completely different story

So by the time the system gets into the Caribbean shear map will look very different
Wind shear isn't going to magically disappear when it has been pronounced all summer.  
But the activity is very isolated...
Quoting 288. luvtogolf:


Wind shear isn't going to magically disappear when it has been pronounced all summer.  


Best chance would be towards the Leewards...
I'm new in the blog...Today is the day (18 yesrs ago) that Hurricaine Georges made landfall in Puerto Rico. The last major hurricaine to reach our area. What a hurricaine!!!!
On the updated Blog on the August global heat records, looking forward to the Presidential Debates when one of the moderators throws in the curve ball question on each candidates position on climate change and whether the US will abide by the Paris Agreement if either one of them is elected President.......................
Quoting 292. weathermanwannabe:

On the updated Blog on the August global heat records, looking forward to next Monday when Anderson Cooper throws in the curve ball question on each candidates position on climate change and whether the US will abide by the Paris Agreement if either one of them is elected President......................................... .....
Anderson Cooper will be one of the debate moderators on Sunday October 9th.
Quoting 293. BaltimoreBrian:

Anderson Cooper will be one of the debate moderators on Sunday October 9th.


Thanks for the correction..................
some of you are saying look at that shear. it wont be that way by the time storm.g ets there and those saying season is over, you don't know what your talking about. look at satt. photos over Africa.
Quoting 285. MahFL:



They are technically ensemble member runs of the same model, you know that.


Yes, I do. I think I remember that from Meteorology 101. I also remember studying something at the University of Maryland Military Branch on Atmospheric Sciences. Also, when I was with NATO, I had a few instructions on modeling. Perhaps I should ask a few people on the blog who actually served with me, if they remember the same.

I have the actual ensemble number of each if you like. I would have posted all 20, but I thought it might clog the blog.
Quoting 296. Grothar:

Yes, I do. I think I remember that from Meteorology 101. I also remember studying something at the University of Maryland Military Branch on Atmospheric Sciences. Also, when I was with NATO, I had a few instructions on modeling. Perhaps I should ask a few people on the blog who actually served with me, if they remember the same.

I have the actual ensemble number of each if you like. I would have posted all 20, but I thought it might clog the blog.
Click to clog the blog. You know you want to open it.
Peace begins with Love

So let's all give a little Love for International day of Peace.


Quoting 296. Grothar:



Yes, I do. I think I remember that from Meteorology 101. I also remember studying something at the University of Maryland Military Branch on Atmospheric Sciences. Also, when I was with NATO, I had a few instructions on modeling. Perhaps I should ask a few people on the blog who actually served with me, if they remember the same.

I have the actual ensemble number of each if you like. I would have posted all 20, but I thought it might clog the blog.
Well, rooty toot toot....
just looked. gfs plows p 39 right into the northern part of s america

Quoting 295. markot:

some of you are saying look at that shear. it wont be that way by the time storm.g ets there and those saying season is over, you don't know what your talking about. look at satt. photos over Africa.
It's been bad all year.  That's why nothing can develop.  Add very dry air into the mix and you have Karl and ever other storm that tried to develop in the mdr.  Wishcasting is not forecasting.  I don't think the season is over but I see no chance of a strong storm developing in the mdr in the next two weeks.  At that point the Cape Verse season is over.  We could certainly see something in Oct/Nov develop close to home in the NW Caribben, GOM or off the SE coast.
Quoting 287. BaltimoreBrian:


the shear gator got em
The Weather Channel
‏@weatherchannel
The last full day of #summer got off to a rather exciting start in #Chicago this morning. http://wxch.nl/2daTdUt
Because it's peace day. Let's see if we can go the entire time today without someone arguing with someone about something completely unimportant. But for now I shall peace out harharhar -as the lame meter explodes.
A strange low latitude storm from 2000. The dissipation was not well anticipated, although no models ever predicted it would reach major hurricane strength. Low level easterly shear did Joyce in.

Quoting 223. RitaEvac:



Evacuated on this day (Sep. 21st) into chaos, remember like it was yesterday. In fact it was a Wednesday just like today!




My wife and I stayed. It felt like we were the last people on earth.
Quoting 292. weathermanwannabe:

On the updated Blog on the August global heat records, looking forward to the Presidential Debates when one of the moderators throws in the curve ball question on each candidates position on climate change and whether the US will abide by the Paris Agreement if either one of them is elected President.......................


Well...the GOP nominee believes climate change is a Chinese plot/hoax.

So don't look to him for anything, as a fertilizer salesman,he offers nothing but a mouthful of samples.


Semper Fi'
Nice rainfall totals in San Diego County............. 1.07 at my mountain location.......and lesser amounts as you get closer to the coast. Just had a shower this am and possible thundershowers/storms this pm. Thank you Paine!

Rainfall Totals:

Link
africa effect? over-rated? the western pacific does well with out it.
Quoting 307. Patrap:



Well.the GOP nominee believes climate change is a Chinese plot/hoax.

So don't look to him for anything, as a fertilizer salesman,he offers nothing but a mouthful of samples.


Semper Fi'

So I guess we have to decide whats more important
The slow death that Climate Change will bring to this world over the next 100 or 1000 years
Or this country being flooded by people that don't live by our constitution and want to kill us now.
Happy Peace Day Everyone and here are a few pics of the great sculpture in Europe (Berlin) depicting Peace Day in a few hundred years.................


Image result for global warming sculptureImage result for global warming sculpture



LOL

Quoting 309. islander101010:

africa effect? over-rated? the western pacific does well with out it.
Back in the 80's and 90's Dr. Gray wrote a lot about the impacts of Africa's climate on the tropical Atllantic. Dry air off of Africa is choking the Atlantic.
As one who served with NATO in Norway with grothar during the cold war,


It is painfully obvious to witness a comment here which is a perfect example of media "programming".



Peace



Quoting 306. RitaandIke:



My wife and I stayed. It felt like we were the last people on earth.


I stayed too
I have to agree ...it was an odd feeling not seeing many people out and about
Also stayed for Ike
Quoting 310. blueyedbiker:


This country has already been flooded (since it's founding, and stealing the Americas away from the Native Americans, and through the present) by so-called Christians who still believe in discrimination and the myth of racial supremacy..............................Just Sayin.
no....... disturbance may be moving toward carrib. next week. and shear will relax.
What is particularly striking is the distance that the 2016 line has from all the past lines bundle, in Dr. Masters' first graphic. To me, that seems to argue strongly that we have indeed just entered the event that some scientists have been referring to as "abrupt climate change".

Quoting 317. markot:

no....... disturbance may be moving toward carrib. next week. and shear will relax.
Lol.  You've said that about ever other system too.  
You all realize Ice number have been growing since the 50's right?

That was 1959
This is 1987
https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2009/ 04/3-subs-north-pole-1987.jpg
They just recently did a challenge where they go through the north pole with a sail boat to show how little of ice there is, but they needed an ice picker because there was so much ice that they could not go through, also Australia has been breaking cold temp records this year, dipping below 14c four times in 2016 which has only happened once before in records
Been there done that got the tshirt.... 1983 i think????

Quoting 314. Patrap:

As one who served with NATO in Norway with grothar during the cold war,


It is painfully obvious to witness a comment here which is a perfect example of media "programming".



Peace




that disturbance coming off the African coast, looks like it maybe the next named storm. most of the global models develop this system near 45W and continue it west all the way to the central caribbean, at the latitude between 10-14 north.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 209. RickWPB:

It's really easy. My ignore list is now up to 229. Just click on 'ignore' link under the post of the person you want to ignore, then on the next page you should see your current ignore list with tha last on that list being the new one you're trying to ignore. Then at the bottom of that page, click 'update this list'.


I tried clicking on Ignore User and it takes me to my wonderblog page, which I have never used, but anyway I can't find my ignore list on that page. Can someone tell me where to find the ignore list on my blog page?
The wind shear forecast by the GFS is for favorable wind shear in the MDR. Once Karl and Lisa complete their recurve or get absorbed by the trough, the ridge in the Eastern Atlantic will rebuild back in. However, the mid-levels look to remain somewhat dry, quite possibly due to another outbreak of African Dust, which would limit development. The big question (?) is where does this tropical wave go. The GFS has it crashing into the north coast of South America this run, while the Euro takes it into the Central Lesser Antilles. This is all within 7-9 days. The GFS is also faster by about a day than the Euro in terms of speed. After that it is just too far out in time to know, what the shear and moisture content will be like in the Caribbean Sea. One thing is certain though, the TCHP and SST in the Western Caribbean is some of the warmest on the planet. If a system can take advantage of that then watch out!



Quoting 315. justmehouston:



I stayed too
I have to agree ...it was an odd feeling not seeing many people out and about
Also stayed for Ike


The morning after Rita, we were the only ones cleaning up our yard. There were no sightseers.
The morning after Ike all the neighbors were outside and there were loads of sightseers.
2 very different experiences.
Quoting 314. Patrap:

As one who served with NATO in Norway with grothar during the cold war,


It is painfully obvious to witness a comment here which is a perfect example of media "programming".



Peace






Which Gator Freighter is that?
Semper Fi.
It has been well over 12 hours since the last post of a menacing image of a mythical hydra to somehow remind us all of the doom we are all facing. Could someone please post that image at least every hour, lest we forget?
We have added one more all-time national record to the list published in yesterday's global climate report for August:

The British Virgin Islands [United Kingdom territory] set its all-time hottest record on July 22, 2016, when the mercury hit 35.0°C (95.0°F] at Terrance B. Lettsome International Airport.

This brings our total of all-time national records for the year to 20.
Quoting 312. Gearsts:

LOL



This is ridiculous and pathetic. Past 75W wishcasters continue to trust that?
Quoting 310. blueyedbiker:


So I guess we have to decide whats more important
The slow death that Climate Change will bring to this world over the next 100 or 1000 years
Or this country being flooded by people that don't live by our constitution and want to kill us now.


I think we're gonna need a citation for that one.
Quoting 327. RitaandIke:



The morning after Rita, we were the only ones cleaning up our yard. There were no sightseers.
The morning after Ike all the neighbors were outside and there were loads of sightseers.
2 very different experiences.

I stayed for alicia Rita Ike and will stay even if big storm coming. I will take my chances and if it's my time to go then I guess I will see the good Lord sooner. The Rita fiasco with all those people dying along the freeways was ridiculous and saw family members spending 12-15 hours in traffic jams trying to flee.....not for me.
"Can't we all just get along" and talk some weather!! Geez
Blog is dead until 97L emerges of the African coast.
Test. All blogs busted or just the most recent. 3:30 PM Central.
Quoting 318. MontanaZephyr:

What is particularly striking is the distance that the 2016 line has from all the past lines bundle, in Dr. Masters' first graphic. To me, that seems to argue strongly that we have indeed just entered the event that some scientists have been referring to as "abrupt climate change".

My special list is getting long with all you people today. Have a good one.