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August Ends With a Whimper for the Atlantic Hurricane Season

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:19 PM GMT on August 30, 2013

The end of August is upon us, and with just one day remaining in the month, the remarkably quiet Atlantic hurricane season of 2013 is highly likely to be just the 6th season since the Hurricane Hunters began flying in 1944 without a hurricane forming by the end of August (the other years: 2002, 2001, 1988, 1984, and 1967.) Although there have been two tropical storms in August (Erin and Fernand), these storms were weak and short-lived, and August 2013 had one of the lowest Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) totals on record for an August in the Atlantic. ACE is calculated as the square of the wind speed every 6 hours for every named storm with at least 40 mph sustained winds (scaled by a factor of 10,000 for usability.) Since the damage potential of a hurricane is proportional to the square or cube of the maximum wind speed, ACE is not only a measure of tropical cyclone activity, but also a measure of the damage potential. During the 20-year period 1981 - 2010, the Atlantic averaged 104 ACE units, and the 20-year average ACE by the end of August was 30. So far in 2013, we've managed just 9 ACE units, with only 1.9 of those occurring in August. Since the current active hurricane period we are in began in 1995, only 2002 had a lower ACE by this point in the year (4.9), and only 1997 had a lower August ACE (zero.) Both were El Niño years, when we expect hurricane activity to be low due to high wind shear. If we go back to the beginning of reliable Atlantic ACE statistics in 1966, when good satellite data first became available, only five other years had August ACE values comparable to 2013's. Three of those years were El Niño years, and the other two had ocean temperatures in the hurricane Main Development Region (MDR, from 10 - 20°N, 20 - 70°W) that were more than 0.5°C (0.9°F) cooler than in 2013. This year's combination of no El Niño, warm MDR SSTs, and an exceptionally low August ACE is an event unparalleled in the historical record, going back to 1966.


Figure 1. August Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) totals in August 2013 were among the lowest on record for an August in the Atlantic. Other Augusts with low ACE in the Atlantic all occurred during El Niño years, or when sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were cool.

Why the quiet season?
The main reason for the quiet August has been the large amount of dry, stable air over the Atlantic. This dry air has two sources: the Sahara desert of Africa, and sinking air from aloft, which warms and dries as it sinks. Even so, I find it highly perplexing that activity has been so low when all of the other factors--lack of an El Niño, low wind shear, an active African Monsoon spitting out plenty of tropical waves, and above average ocean temperatures--have favored development. Instability has increased over the tropical Atlantic over the past few days, thanks to the influence of the MJO and a Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave (CCKW) bringing rising air to the Atlantic. However, there do not appear to be any tropical waves positioned to take advantage of this increased instability and intensify to hurricane strength over the coming week (though 96L could become a tropical storm.) The next tropical wave with a shot at becoming a hurricane will not exit the coast of Africa until September 7. If we make it all the way to September 11 without a hurricane in the Atlantic, it will beat the record set by Hurricane Gustav of 2002 for latest date of formation of the season's first hurricane, going back to when the Hurricane Hunters first began flying in 1944. Even if we do get a first-half of September hurricane, the steering pattern features a strong trough of low pressure over the U.S. East Coast, which would have high odds of recurving any hurricane that manages to form out to sea, without affecting any land areas.


Figure 2. Vertical instability over the tropical Atlantic in 2013 (blue line) compared to average (black line.) The instability is plotted in °C, as a difference in temperature from near the surface to the upper atmosphere. Thunderstorms grow much more readily when vertical instability is high. Instability has been much lower than average during most of August, due to outbreaks of dry air from Saharan Air Layer (SAL) , and an unusual amount of dry, sinking air in the tropical Atlantic. Low instability reduces the potential for tropical storm formation. During the last few days of August, instability has increased, which should raise the odds of tropical storm formation. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS/CIRA.

Quiet in the Atlantic
A tropical wave located about 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving westward at 15 mph, and has changed little over the past two days. The wave has a modest amount of spin, but only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC left the 5-day odds of formation of this disturbance at 20%, and the 2-day odds at 10%. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the system, but there is an area of dry air and dust from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the north and west that is interfering with development. Our three reliable models for predicting genesis, the UKMET, GFS, and European models, do not develop the disturbance during the next five days. The wave will likely spread heavy rains and gusty winds to the Lesser Antilles Islands by Monday, when the wave will encounter an area of high wind shear positioned over the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands. This high wind shear will likely decrease the odds of development beginning on Monday.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of the tropical disturbance 650 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, taken at 2:30 pm EDT on August 30, 2013. A small closed circulation had developed well to the west of an area of increasing heavy thunderstorms. Image credit: NASA.

A well-organized tropical wave emerging from the coast of Africa (Invest 96L) is headed west-northwest towards the Cape Verde Islands. This wave is expected to take a west-northwesterly track into an area with drier air and higher wind shear, and would likely not be able to make the long trek across the Atlantic to threaten North America or the Caribbean Islands. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC put the 5-day odds of development at 60%, and the 2-day odds at 40%. The GFS model predicts that 96L will develop, but the UKMET and European models show little or no development.

Wunderblogger Lee Grenci has an excellent new post, "Atlantic Hurricane Season: The Saharan Air Layer and Vertical Wind Shear".

I plan on having a relaxing Labor Day weekend, but will do at least one update. Have a great weekend, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

historically some storms have flourished in john hopes kill zone. gilbert to name one
1002. ncstorm
Quoting 995. LargoFl:
are you at all concerned about the GEM track for your area?..my daughter and family are in southern maryland close to DC and they are checking their supplies etc...watching the models closely i guess...


No, its the CMC (even I know the handicaps of the model and I'm one of its biggest fans)..I'm waiting on seeing if development happens first and look at track later..
1003. GatorWX
Quoting 997. kmanislander:
Convection is trying to wrap into the low center as seen in this loop


Looks like it's running up against that shear too.
Quoting 993. hydrus:
I wish I was in the Caymans playin golf....sniffle


I will hit a few for you tomorrow LOL
1005. LargoFl



:( :( :( :( :( :(

Something missing

Rammb floater loop of central Atlantic Low

Link
Quoting 1003. GatorWX:


Looks like it's running up against that shear too.


That it is but holding its own for now. The 1500 UTC vort map will be interesting. I suspect a few shades of red may start to show in the yellow.
1009. hydrus
Quoting 998. GatorWX:


Not a great outlook if the NAM/GEM hold true. Could be one to watch. As stated, needs to hold on to some convection if it is to persist. I'm guessing after 70w if it is to get going. What do you think about Northern Gulf? Not a big concern, I know.
It would have to hang out there for at least 24 hours before it would do anything..Looks a little dry too.

Quoting 1007. superpete:
Rammb floater loop of central Atlantic Low

Link


Hi Pete,

Things looking more interesting today !
Quoting 1004. kmanislander:


I will hit a few for you tomorrow LOL


Dont forget the umbrella in between the 5 & 3 wood >!
1012. LargoFl
Quoting 1002. ncstorm:


No, its the CMC (even I know the handicaps of the model and I'm one of its biggest fans)..I'm waiting on seeing if development happens first and look at track later..
ok its good your aware of the possibility..many arent..
1013. scott39
Quoting 993. hydrus:
I wish I was in the Caymans playin golf....sniffle
Golf, has kept my marriage strong for 23 years :)
1014. LargoFl
1015. hydrus
It certainly has spin..
The low level center may be around 15N/54W where a small area of convection have formed heading west.

Morning Kman & everybody!
Quoting 999. hydrus:
Will it be sheared like a sheep.?..:)


Maybe like a poodle which is survivable LOL
1019. hydrus
Quoting 1013. scott39:
Golf, has kept my marriage strong for 23 years :)
I worked a couple of country clubs for ten years..I miss it. Congrats on your 23 years Scott...I wont discuss mine today..:)
1020. barbamz
Quoting 880. Skyepony:
Unusual geological event in Italy on Tuesday, 27 August, 2013 at 17:55 (05:55 PM) UTC.
Description
New fumarole appeared near Rome's International Fiumicino airport Saturday morning. A vent producing small geyser-like fountains of steam, water and mud suddenly opened in the ground near a road crossing near Fiumicino. Geologists are currently examining the phenomenon. It is still a bit unclear whether it is not a man-made accident caused by a broken pipe or similar (which might well be the case). As La Repubblica statess, first inspections however indicate that ii is in fact a new natural vent. Obviously, there are also already some speculations whether it could be related to volcanic activity. The nearest possibly still active volcanic system in the area is the Monti Albani, an old but possibly not yet extinct volcanic complex located 20 km SE of the capital. Its last known activity there took place about 20,000 years ago. New volcanic activity in the suburban area of Rome itself is certainly not a completely impossible, but quite unlikely scenario. More data will be needed to shed light on this.


Hey Skye, the event has been intensely discussed by a (quite hypothetical) blog entry and the comments (link to them on the left side bar) on volcanocafe. Many videos there too. Interesting thing for sure!

Back to homework (sigh).
Quoting 1007. superpete:
Rammb floater loop of central Atlantic Low

Link

I have kept my eyes on this wave since it left Africa.It really looked good for several days then the convection lessened and shear kicked butt, but it has kept going. Gradually the convection and the center has gotten closer together. Still believe it will happen, with time.
1022. hydrus
Quoting 1018. kmanislander:


Maybe like a poodle which is survivable LOL
We have been lucky so far K-Man. Do you think our luck will hold for the rest of the season.?...My gut sez no.
Quoting 1011. superpete:


Dont forget the umbrella in between the 5 & 3 wood >!


I hope it doesnt rain. We sure had a deluge this past week, especially Thursday in South Sound. The lightning was a real worry as I just had to replace the mother board in my weather station due to lightning right over my home about 3 weeks ago. The station went blank and even though I managed to reboot it the wind reading was stuck on North.

Up and running 100% again thankfully.
What if the shear enhances convection and further increase the organisation of its low level structure
1025. GatorWX
Quoting 1009. hydrus:
It would have to hang out there for at least 24 hours before it would do anything..Looks a little dry too.



Yeah, looks to be dying.



I'm just curious what type of system to call it. MCC is my only guess. Surely it'll provide some squally weather for SE LA.

Quoting 1008. kmanislander:


That it is but holding its own for now. The 1500 UTC vort map will be interesting. I suspect a few shades of red may start to show in the yellow.


It looks to be improving and because of this, I'm not sure if it looks to be hitting the "wall" of 30-40kts, if that map is accurate, or not. If it tracks wsw, it'll have a much greater chance in the short term imo. If not, it may, as you said, have to wait a bit.
1026. SLU
Quoting 936. Tropicsweatherpr:
This tweet by NHC forecaster Blake says it all.

Eric Blake %u200F@EricBlake12 8h
@RyanMaue well on our way to at least the 4th latest 1st hurricane of the Atlc season. No MH in WHemi latest since 81. Ugly



I still think it's too early to call off the season. There are three distinct patterns that hurricane seasons take:

TOP HEAVY - most of the activity before August 31st with less activity after September 1st. eg 1995, 2011, 2012.

BOTTOM HEAVY - slow first half with most of the activity post September 1st. eg. 1998, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2007, 2010.

EVENLY SPREAD OUT - the activity tends to be dispersed throughout the season without any significant concentration of the activity in any specific period. eg 1996, 2003, 2005, 2008

Most seasons tend to adopt the "bottom heavy" approach and 2013 could very well follow suit. Today is only August 31st and it's not farfetched that we could see an active September/October period given the La Nina-ish setup this year. Eight - 12 additional named storms isn't impossible judging by most active seasons in the past with very little activity in the first half of the season but still end up with over 15 named storms in the end. Eventually we will be a burst of activity before the season is over.


Quoting 1022. hydrus:
We have been lucky so far K-Man. Do you think our luck will hold for the rest of the season.?...My gut sez no.


I don't see how it can. There is so much latent heat out there that this quiet period is most unlikely to last all the way through. October and November may be the really bad months when fronts stall in the Caribbean and lows develop just East of Nicaragua.

Things can change in a hurry. We may not see too many long track CV systems this year but weak ones like this wave that make it to the Caribbean have a tendency to get to the NW Caribbean which is very favourable for development generally speaking.

I think the Caribbean is the danger area this year but we still have all of September to watch the Atlantic.
1028. 19N81W
so finally its being admitted that we really have little idea what causes a busy season.
In any event the rain has been ok....looking forward to a bit more before the dry season...but seems like the seasons are all running into each other these days
Quoting 1024. wunderkidcayman:
What if the shear enhances convection and further increase the organisation of its low level structure


Even if it were to develop, the trough sitting along the east coast is going to tug it northward. Far enough to take it out to sea? No way of knowing but it will tug it northward. NE Islands, PR and Bahamas could get some squally weather from it.
Quoting 1016. Hurricanes305:
The low level center may be around 15N/54W where a small area of convection have formed heading west.


Having a closer look its more like 14.5N 54W

Quoting 1017. superpete:
Morning Kman & everybody!


Morning

Quoting 1018. kmanislander:


Maybe like a poodle which is survivable LOL

Na better than survivable more like liveable
1031. Kyon5
SAL is almost non-existent.


If this season continues like this, it'll go down as perhaps one of the most uninteresting and unremarkable hurricane seasons in the last 20 years. Even 1997, which featured 2 hurricanes and a US landfall by this point, was more interesting than 2013 so far.

Personally I believe none of that will matter if we get a "one-punch knockout" this season like we did last year.
1033. GatorWX
Northern gulf system definitely has some winds.



I'll check some others to see if this verifies.
Quoting 1033. GatorWX:
Northern gulf system definitely has some winds.



I'll check some others to see if this verifies.


Maybe just winds from a thunderstorm. As you said, need to check other buoys and subsequent readings from this buoy.
Vertical instability in both the Caribbean and the Atlantic is near climo norms now signalling that the dry sinking air which has been capping development could be on the way out. The MJO has not cooperated so far though.



Based on the latest global model trends, tropical cyclone development across the entire northern hemisphere over the next 7 days seems unlikely, with the exception of possible *minor* tropical cyclone development in the eastern Pacific in about 5 days time.

It appears as if 2013 will be a record breaking year, but not for the reasons we would've imagined.

96L may still develop, but based on environmental conditions currently present at its current latitude, in addition to its WNW/NW movement, anything more intense than a 30-35kt tropical cyclone seems very unlikely.

At this point, there needs to be a way for latent heat to be transferred from the equator towards the poles, and weak tropical storms aren't cutting it. I think we're due for the quite the major hurricane in the western hemisphere at some point throughout the next few weeks. When and where it happens is the question.
1037. GatorWX
Well, that's the only one I could find, but the buoy seemed functional as all other data seemed consistent. I don't know, it is a small little area of thunderstorms, so have no idea if 55+ mph winds are accurate lol.
Having a closer look its more like 14.5N 54W


I have it at 15.5N 54W
Quoting 1036. MiamiHurricanes09:
Based on the latest global model trends, tropical cyclone development across the entire northern hemisphere over the next 7 days seems unlikely, with the exception of possible *minor* tropical cyclone development in the eastern Pacific in about 5 days time.

It appears as if 2013 will be a record breaking year, but not for the reasons we would've imagined.

96L may still develop, but based on environmental conditions currently present at its current latitude, in addition to its WNW/NW movement, anything more intense than a 30-35kt tropical cyclone seems very unlikely.

At this point, there needs to be a way for latent heat to be transferred from the equator towards the poles, and weak tropical storms aren't cutting it. I think we're due for the quite the major hurricane in the western hemisphere at some point throughout the next few weeks. When and where it happens is the question.


That's exactly my thinking as well, last year we had Hurricane Sandy in the Atlantic that did that after loads of weak and insignificant storms in the middle of nowhere. Sandy was utterly massive, and had an incredible amount of energy.
1040. Mikla
Quoting 1028. 19N81W:
so finally its being admitted that we really have little idea what causes a busy season.
In any event the rain has been ok....looking forward to a bit more before the dry season...but seems like the seasons are all running into each other these days


Correct... until we have a handle on how our weather is affected by the Sun, Moon, Galaxy, earths inner core, shifting magnetic pole and other random events... we can only predict that weather will be random and some years will be more active than others...
Quoting 1026. SLU:


I still think it's too early to call off the season. There are three distinct patterns that hurricane seasons take:

TOP HEAVY - most of the activity before August 31st with less activity after September 1st. eg 1995, 2011, 2012.

BOTTOM HEAVY - slow first half with most of the activity post September 1st. eg. 1998, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2007, 2010.

EVENLY SPREAD OUT - the activity tends to be dispersed throughout the season without any significant concentration of the activity in any specific period. eg 1996, 2003, 2005, 2008

Most seasons tend to adopt the "bottom heavy" approach and 2013 could very well follow suit. Today is only August 31st and it's not farfetched that we could see an active September/October period given the La Nina-ish setup this year. Eight - 12 additional named storms isn't impossible judging by most active seasons in the past with very little activity in the first half of the season but still end up with over 15 named storms in the end. Eventually we will be a burst of activity before the season is over.



This year I say is bottom heavy

Quoting 1027. kmanislander:


I don't see how it can. There is so much latent heat out there that this quiet period is most unlikely to last all the way through. October and November may be the really bad months when fronts stall in the Caribbean and lows develop just East of Nicaragua.

Things can change in a hurry. We may not see too many long track CV systems this year but weak ones like this wave that make it to the Caribbean have a tendency to get to the NW Caribbean which is very favourable for development generally speaking.

I think the Caribbean is the danger area this year but we still have all of September to watch the Atlantic.


Agreed more so the NW Caribbean areas Jamaica Cuba Cayman Yucatan Belize Honduras are in big danger

Quoting 1029. clwstmchasr:


Even if it were to develop, the trough sitting along the east coast is going to tug it northward. Far enough to take it out to sea? No way of knowing but it will tug it northward. Just like its predecessors. NE Islands, PR and Bahamas could get some squally weather from it.

I don't think this one will make it out of the Caribbean or well not till it reaches 80W if it does I think it would either parallel Florida or hit it and then up the E Coast I don't see this going N or PR nor Dom. Rep.

Quoting 1032. CybrTeddy:
If this season continues like this, it'll go down as perhaps one of the most uninteresting and unremarkable hurricane seasons in the last 20 years. Even 1997, which featured 2 hurricanes and a US landfall by this point, was more interesting than 2013 so far.

Personally I believe none of that will matter if we get a "one-punch knockout" this season like we did last year.
Base on the pattern before the year start and how the conditions were suppose to be favorable,I really thought we would have seen Major cape verde storms at this point.
1043. hydrus
Quoting 1016. Hurricanes305:
The low level center may be around 15N/54W where a small area of convection have formed heading west.



Yes. You can see it just below 15 N where the tongue of convection ends. The circulation is quite evident.
I have centered it in this image.

Quoting 1027. kmanislander:


I don't see how it can. There is so much latent heat out there that this quiet period is most unlikely to last all the way through. October and November may be the really bad months when fronts stall in the Caribbean and lows develop just East of Nicaragua.

Things can change in a hurry. We may not see too many long track CV systems this year but weak ones like this wave that make it to the Caribbean have a tendency to get to the NW Caribbean which is very favourable for development generally speaking.

I think the Caribbean is the danger area this year but we still have all of September to watch the Atlantic.
Do you believe this wave will affect Nicaragua or Honduras or it will move north of it?
Quoting 1045. allancalderini:
Do you believe this wave will affect Nicaragua or Honduras or it will move north of it?


Too early to say and lots of time to see if it develops at all but I think the odds of development have gone up in the past 6 hours.
Would be nice if the wave could stall a few hours
Quoting 1039. CybrTeddy:


That's exactly my thinking as well, last year we had Hurricane Sandy in the Atlantic that did that after loads of weak and insignificant storms in the middle of nowhere. Sandy was utterly massive, and had an incredible amount of energy.
Agree, although I'm thinking bigger. At the point Sandy developed, the north Atlantic already had seen about 9 hurricanes and 1 major hurricane. Ample heat being distributed. All we've seen in the Atlantic at this point is weak tropical activity, which could be virtually comparable to no activity at all. I think something 1992-esque is possible, sans the number of tropical storms that developed in that year because obviously we're bound to get more considering how many we have at this point.

It's not as if 2013 has been inactive, we've had a decent amount of tropical cyclone activity, and so has the EPAC, it's the overall meager nature of the tropical cyclones that is interesting.
Quoting 1038. clwstmchasr:
Having a closer look its more like 14.5N 54W


I have it at 15.5N 54W

Nah below 15N look below
I
\. /

Quoting 1044. kmanislander:


Yes. You can see it just below 15 N where the tongue of convection ends. The circulation is quite evident.
I have centered it in this image.


Yep

Quoting 1045. allancalderini:
Do you believe this wave will affect Nicaragua or Honduras or it will move north of it?


With that trof expected to move down and across by some maybe move N but at this point anything is possible
1050. RickWPB
Quoting scott39:
Golf, has kept my marriage strong for 23 years :)

I guess this means you don't play golf with your spouse. :)
1051. GatorWX
Quoting 1037. GatorWX:
Well, that's the only one I could find, but the buoy seemed functional as all other data seemed consistent. I don't know, it is a small little area of thunderstorms, so have no idea if 55+ mph winds are accurate lol.




^This also happened at that same site. Interesting anyway.

No slp reading however.
1052. hydrus
Quoting 1027. kmanislander:


I don't see how it can. There is so much latent heat out there that this quiet period is most unlikely to last all the way through. October and November may be the really bad months when fronts stall in the Caribbean and lows develop just East of Nicaragua.

Things can change in a hurry. We may not see too many long track CV systems this year but weak ones like this wave that make it to the Caribbean have a tendency to get to the NW Caribbean which is very favourable for development generally speaking.

I think the Caribbean is the danger area this year but we still have all of September to watch the Atlantic.
Caribbean is notorious for large and intense storm that form out practically nothing. Mitch and Wilma are classic examples of this. I remember the waves that they originated from were rather puny..You know the rest..
1053. ncstorm
trend perhaps?..more GFS ensembles spread are showing possible development of the central atlantic wave..ensembles recurve it..nothing overwhelming but just a hint

00z




06z




Quoting 1048. MiamiHurricanes09:
Agree, although I'm thinking bigger. At the point Sandy developed, the north Atlantic already had seen about 9 hurricanes and 1 major hurricane. Ample heat being distributed. All we've seen in the Atlantic at this point is weak tropical activity, which could be virtually comparable to no activity at all. I think something 1992-esque is possible, sans the number of tropical storms that developed in that year because obviously we're bound to get more considering how many we have at this point.

It's not as if 2013 has been inactive, we've had a decent amount of tropical cyclone activity, and so has the EPAC, it's the overall meager nature of the tropical cyclones that is interesting.


I agree, we'll have to wait and see where and if this storm materializes or if there will be more than one. It may be in the WPAC for all we know, or in the EPAC, but the odds favor the Atlantic as the MJO will be turning into our basin and we've had the least activity so far.
1055. GatorWX
And it's a Chevron Rig, 160m elevation, not a buoy.
1056. hydrus
Quoting 1050. RickWPB:

I guess this means you don't play golf with your spouse. :)
Dat wuz a goood one .:)
Quoting 1046. kmanislander:


Too early to say and lots of time to see if it develops at all but I think the odds of development have gone up in the past 6 hours.

Agreed

Quoting 1047. CaribBoy:
Would be nice if the wave could stall a few hours


Oh you would love that we all know wait your time will come but when it does don't complain when it's too much ok you need to promise up that ok
INFLOW on the south side of our WAVE seems to be on the increase XD
Quoting 1046. kmanislander:


Too early to say and lots of time to see if it develops at all but I think the odds of development have gone up in the past 6 hours.
The ECMWF has been keen on taking it towards the Bahamas in about a week, whereas the GFS just kinda buries it in central America. And of course we have the CMC turning it into a Caribbean/Bahamas hurricane, to no one's surprise.

Worth watching in the long range.
Quoting 1049. wunderkidcayman:

Nah below 15N look below
I
\. /


Yep



With that trof expected to move down and across by some maybe move N but at this point anything is possible
Quoting 1046. kmanislander:


Too early to say and lots of time to see if it develops at all but I think the odds of development have gone up in the past 6 hours.
Thanks,I actually believe it will move north of it.Like near Jamaica,Cayman islands and Cuba,bu t we will see.
I say models wont pick up on our central Atlantic AOI until it gets better organised and much more stronger
Quoting 1059. MiamiHurricanes09:
The ECMWF has been keen on taking it towards the Bahamas in about a week, whereas the GFS just kinda buries it in central America. And of course we have the CMC turning it into a Caribbean/Bahamas hurricane, to no one's surprise.

Worth watching in the long range.
Usually the stronger it is the northern it moves.
Quoting 1057. wunderkidcayman:

Agreed



Oh you would love that we all know wait your time will come but when it does don't complain when it's too much ok you need to promise up that ok


Lol ok Wunderkid, but I hope something too big won't happen anytime soon.
Maybe we can squeeze as many named storms as possible out of this season...
2009 was more interesting than this year -_-
But if we get a Mitch...the blog's attitude'll change.
this is crazy!! the modeles make the storm go nw and north and east and back down to the south!
1066. beell
Another fresh batch of dry dusty off the NW coast of Africa did in 96L.

Quoting 1058. CaribBoy:
INFLOW on the south side of our WAVE seems to be on the increase XD


Your right inflow has increase on the south side meaning it has some decent convergence at the moment Good catch! I would increase it odds of developing to 20% by 48 hours and 20% in the next 5 days at the next TWO.
Quoting 1066. beell:
Another fresh batch of dry dusty off the NW coast of Africa did in 96L.



Bust
Quoting 1058. CaribBoy:
INFLOW on the south side of our WAVE seems to be on the increase XD

Yes it has

Quoting 1059. MiamiHurricanes09:
The ECMWF has been keen on taking it towards the Bahamas in about a week, whereas the GFS just kinda buries it in central America. And of course we have the CMC turning it into a Caribbean/Bahamas hurricane, to no one's surprise.

Worth watching in the long range.


As I said before and also it add to it wait till USAF RECON flys into it and NOAA and NASA planes and UAVs fly then it would be put into the models and then we get better pictures
Can't remember when I've seen the tropics look so benign for the end of August. If this Hurricane Season produces another 4 or 5 named storms between now and the end of November I'll eat my hat.
1071. K8eCane
Quoting 1070. HurriHistory:
Can't remember when I've seen the tropics look so benign for the end of August. If this Hurricane Season produces another 4 or 5 named storms between now and the end of November I'll eat my hat.


you will be required to post a video to prove you ate it.
Quoting 1067. Hurricanes305:


Your right inflow has increase on the south side meaning it has some decent convergence at the moment Nice catch!!! I would increase it odds of developing to 20% and 20% in the next 5 days at the next TWO.


I remember Jeanne (2004) has been classified 6 hours after the NHC said that wind shear would prevent significant development.
Quoting 1066. beell:
Another fresh batch of dry dusty off the NW coast of Africa did in 96L.



Be careful. I was reported for intimating that SAL has ended the Cape Verde season.

7-0-0
1074. ncstorm
Quoting 1065. hurricanes2018:
this is crazy!! the modeles make the storm go nw and north and east and back down to the south!


will take tracking to a whole 'nother level..
1075. ncstorm
1076. GatorWX
Just saw a hummingbird moth. First one I've ever seen. Hung out by a red flowering bush I have, then sped off. I'm pretty sure it wasn't a hummingbird, but didn't get a close or long enough look. I haven't seen one of those in awhile.

Quoting 1067. Hurricanes305:


Your right inflow has increase on the south side meaning it has some decent convergence at the moment Nice catch!!! I would increase it odds of developing to 20% and 20% in the next 5 days at the next TWO.

That would mean invest status which I kinda disagree I say for now 10%/30% before we reach that 48hrs mark then we increase it
Shear is decreasing
Quoting 1059. MiamiHurricanes09:
The ECMWF has been keen on taking it towards the Bahamas in about a week, whereas the GFS just kinda buries it in central America. And of course we have the CMC turning it into a Caribbean/Bahamas hurricane, to no one's surprise.

Worth watching in the long range.


Personally I do not pay much attention to the models until we have a closed system for them to work with.

It is a virtual certainty that it will enter the Caribbean, that much we now know.
September: 4/1/1
October: 3/2/1
November: 2/1/0

Most I could see out of this season...
It'd put us at 16/4/2 though..
October might favor development as some seasons do..

Quoting 1072. CaribBoy:


I remember Jeanne (2004) has been classified 6 hours after the NHC said that wind shear would prevent significant development.


perfect example
1082. K8eCane
Quoting 1079. kmanislander:


Personally I do not pay much attention to the models until we have a closed system for them to work with.

It is a virtual certainty that it will enter the Caribbean, that much we now know.


which means antilles should be watching closely
1083. LargoFl
The manati.star scatterometer site seems to have taken the three day weekend off.

what are other links to get ascat etc. images?


Quoting 1072. CaribBoy:


I remember Jeanne (2004) has been classified 6 hours after the NHC said that wind shear would prevent significant development.

Yeah
I remember something like that

Quoting 1074. ncstorm:


will take tracking to a whole 'nother level..


Not really remember what happen last year up in that area and up to the Azores
Quoting 1082. K8eCane:


which means antilles should be watching closely


I doubt it will be much of a threat to the Islands near 60W. Farther West is where the greater threat would lie IMO
Quoting 1072. CaribBoy:


I remember Jeanne (2004) has been classified 6 hours after the NHC said that wind shear would prevent significant development.


Lol the models for 96L show a loop track like Jeanne did.

Jeanne


96L
1088. ncstorm
00z HWRF






1089. K8eCane
Quoting 1086. kmanislander:


I doubt it will be much of a threat to the Islands near 60W. Farther West is where the greater threat would lie IMO


it has to cross them to get to the caribbean doesnt it?
I'm hoping that if the energy is not used very well in the Atlantic this year winter storms will make good use of it.In the winter of 09-10 both Europe and the U.S.A had some very strong winter storms.I remember how one of my local mets said that the left over heat in the gulf was fueling those monsters that were riding up our coast.
Quoting 1086. kmanislander:


I doubt it will be much of a threat to the Islands near 60W. Farther West is where the greater threat would lie IMO


Hi kman. Some squally weather for the Lesser Antilles and PR is a sure bet.
Quoting 1089. K8eCane:


it has to cross them to get to the caribbean doesnt it?


Main threat is rainfall.
1093. LargoFl
Quoting 1087. Hurricanes305:


Lol the models for 96L show a loop track like Jeanne did.

Jeanne


96L
what a change from yesterdays runs huh..no more northern tracks...one to watch out for in the days to come.
Quoting 1093. LargoFl:
what a change from yesterdays runs huh..no more northern tracks...one to watch out for in the days to come.


Hmm unless it dies completely in the dry air...
1095. K8eCane
Quoting 1092. CaribBoy:


Main threat is rainfall.


you hope
1096. LargoFl
Nam sure has a wet monday for florida............
I give the NAM credit (12z at 60 hours). It hasn't back down about the Caribbean Low. Doesn't mean will get any development out of it. Could just increase rainfall in the area.
Quoting 1079. kmanislander:


Personally I do not pay much attention to the models until we have a closed system for them to work with.

It is a virtual certainty that it will enter the Caribbean, that much we now know.

Yeah ya got that right

Quoting 1082. K8eCane:


which means antilles should be watching closely

Most certainly more the greater Antilles rather than the lesser but both should keep close eye

Quoting 1084. CaicosRetiredSailor:
The manati.star scatterometer site seems to have taken the three day weekend off.

what are other links to get ascat etc. images?



Yeah but I don't trust it you can find the link in tropicalatlantic.com under the analysis and go to wind data
Quoting 1090. washingtonian115:
I'm hoping that if the energy is not used very well in the Atlantic this year winter storms will make good use of it.In the winter of 09-10 both Europe and the U.S.A had some very strong winter storms.I remember how one of my local mets said that the left over heat in the gulf was fueling those monsters that were riding up our coast.
I imagine then that the winter of 2005 was very boring?
Quoting 1095. K8eCane:


you hope


I hope XD ... but sure rain is a greater threat than winds
Quoting 1090. washingtonian115:
I'm hoping that if the energy is not used very well in the Atlantic this year winter storms will make good use of it.In the winter of 09-10 both Europe and the U.S.A had some very strong winter storms.I remember how one of my local mets said that the left over heat in the gulf was fueling those monsters that were riding up our coast.
buy that snowblower now while the prices are low
1102. K8eCane
Quoting 1100. CaribBoy:


I hope XD ... but sure rain is a greater threat than winds


but a lot of wind combined with rain not good. trees down more easily
12z NAM at 69 hours
Quoting 1091. Tropicsweatherpr:


Hi kman. Some squally weather for the Lesser Antilles and PR is a sure bet.


Quite likely
Quoting 1103. Sfloridacat5:
12z NAM at 69 hours


Seems to have it in the right place too based upon the current coordinates.
1106. LargoFl
GFS also agree's..a wet monday ..wish some rain would go to texas..
1107. Mikla
Quoting 1084. CaicosRetiredSailor:
The manati.star scatterometer site seems to have taken the three day weekend off.

what are other links to get ascat etc. images?




link
1108. ncstorm
model consensus on the central atlantic wave
CMC, NAM, HWRF, UkMet

vs
Euro and GFS..
(Euro consistently still shows a strong area of vorticity heading into the bahamas)
Quoting 1088. ncstorm:
00z HWRF







Yes I did mention HWRF takes on the Central Atlantic AOI put it in the Caribbean as a storm or hurricane and moves it W-WNW once it enter the Caribbean puts it ESE of Jamaica

Quoting 1089. K8eCane:


it has to cross them to get to the caribbean doesnt it?

Yeah but I think he means as storm or with storm conditions

Quoting 1091. Tropicsweatherpr:


Hi kman. Some squally weather for the Lesser Antilles and PR is a sure bet.

Yeah squally wx

Quoting 1092. CaribBoy:


Main threat is rainfall.

Yeah but it maybe more for the islands further S

Quoting 1095. K8eCane:


you hope

Yes he badly does

Quoting 1102. K8eCane:


but a lot of wind combined with rain not good. trees down more easily


I agree, but this is more likely to happen in the islands with constantly wet areas.
Quoting 1089. K8eCane:


it has to cross them to get to the caribbean doesnt it?


Yes but right now it is not even a TD. Probably rain and gusty winds when it enters the Caribbean but many of those islands are mountainous and high elevations can wring out a lot of water due to oragraphic lift.
Flash flooding would be something to watch for especially for those islands to the NE of the low center as it enters the basin. Those to the South of the low would see less rain as the convection is presently displaced to the NE.
12z NAM at 81 hours - developing the low in the Caribbean.
I think at present we have a dry tropical storm Gabrielle. one thing for sure the islands will get tropical storm force winds. looing at the structure, it has been on the organization trend the past few hrs. anything could happen in the area 55w to 61 w.
I'm going to the beach (even though the weather is not very bright), will be back later XD
1115. LargoFl
Due West as seen in satellite loops



1117. K8eCane
Quoting 1116. kmanislander:
Due West as seen in satellite loops





straight for lesser antilles

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013

CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERNIGHT WAS AMBIGUOUS ON THE EXACT
POSITION OF THE CYCLONE. FORTUNATELY...A 0938Z NOAA-19 AMSU AND A
1217Z TRMM MICROWAVE PASSES WERE HELPFUL IN MORE ACCURATELY LOCATING
ITS CENTER. THESE INDICATE A MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM OF 325/6...
PRIMARILY DUE TO STEERING PROVIDED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEAST
OF THE CYCLONE. AS THE CYCLONE WINDS DOWN IN ABOUT TWO TO THREE
DAYS...IT WILL SLOW ITS FORWARD SPEED AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE LIGHT LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO THE SOMEWHAT MORE WESTWARD
INITIAL POSITION AND IS CLOSE TO THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
TAFB...SAB...AND ADT SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT SINCE THE 1200Z
ESTIMATES AND THE SYSTEM COULD BE REACHING TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY
SHORTLY. HOWEVER...INTENSIFICATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL
LIKELY BE QUITE SHORT-LIVED...AS COOLER SSTS AND A MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE LIE ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH OF THE SYSTEM STARTING IN
ABOUT A DAY AND A HALF. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS IN
NOT BRINGING THE CYCLONE HIGHER THAN A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM. THE
INTENSITY PREDICTION MIRRORS THIS AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW
IN ABOUT THREE DAYS AND DISSIPATE IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS...WHILE
REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1500Z 19.1N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 19.8N 116.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 20.6N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 21.5N 117.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 21.9N 117.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 22.0N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

Quoting 1116. kmanislander:
Due West as seen in satellite loops



right around 66 to 69 n is were we should get something going if it can get going that is
Quoting 1076. GatorWX:
Just saw a hummingbird moth. First one I've ever seen. Hung out by a red flowering bush I have, then sped off. I'm pretty sure it wasn't a hummingbird, but didn't get a close or long enough look. I haven't seen one of those in awhile.


Can I have some of what you are having?
Quoting 1119. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
right around 66 to 69 n is were we should get something going if it can get going that is


Probably more like 70 to 75 but a lot depends on how it is doing by 63W
Surprised they didn't go ahead and name Kiko.

1126. Walshy
Quoting allancalderini:
I imagine then that the winter of 2005 was very boring?


The winter following that hurricane season ('05/6) actually brought a crippling ice storm here. Also had a few snows. Winter is very tough to forecast too.



As Hawk Harrelson would say: "Yesssss. HELL yes. Don't Stop Now Boys!!"

Why?????!!!!!!!! PLEASE pay Southern Illinois a visit. Please!! :)


1128. Kyon5

Quoting 1123. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Convection is slowly wrapping up around the center.
I'M SO JEALOUS OF YOU CHICAGO!!!!!!!!!!!
1130. VR46L
Kman do you think that we have a developing disturbance on hand
strange no talk of recon. hope the islanders are watching this closely
Quoting 1124. kmanislander:


Probably more like 70 to 75 but a lot depends on how it is doing by 63W
by 70n 75n should be a named system or close to it if it takes off

got a couple of days to see
Quoting 1129. SouthernIllinois:
I'M SO JEALOUS OF YOU CHICAGO!!!!!!!!!!!
y needa stop yellin natalie lol. your pattern will probably change, just like eventually atlantic will heat up with activity.but now dry air, high shear, vertical instability, and new SAL outbreaks will dominant through at least first week of sept.may see a storm or two durring 2nd half of sept and the best part is with the azores high building in any action will likely recurve....
Quoting 1116. kmanislander:
Due West as seen in satellite loops




I still say it will be N of Barbados by 1degree
Quoting 1131. stoormfury:
Kman do you think that we have a developing disturbance on hand


I do, but with one caveat. In loop imagery we can see upper level winds out of the SW ahead of the system which is shear. How it deals with this and whether shear values continue to fall will make all the difference as to how well it does. It is clearly capable of generating convection as we can see but it is being displaced to the NE of the low center due to winds being out of the SW aloft.
1137. pcola57
Still got this "whatever" hanging around here..

Quoting 1132. stoormfury:
strange no talk of recon. hope the islanders are watching this closely



000
NOUS42 KNHC 291527
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT THU 29 AUGUST 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 30/1100Z TO 31/1100Z AUGUST 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-089

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: NOAA 49 WILL FLY A TDR MISSION
INTO SUSPECT AREA NEAR 15N 50W, DEPARTING ST CROIX 31/1300Z,
ALTITUDE 41,000 TO 45,000 FT.
3. REMARKS:
A. GLOBAL HAWK NA873 DEPARTED 29/1300Z FLYING EASTERLY WAVE/
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. MISSION DURATION 24 HRS. ALTITUDE 55,000
TO 65,000 FT. SEE TCPOD 13-088 FOR ADDITIONAL INFO.
B. GLOBAL HAWK NA871 TAKE-OFF: 1600Z 30 AUGUST
1. STORM/AREA OF INTEREST: AFRICAN EASTERLY WAVE-
DEPRESSION/EAST OF LESSER ANTILLES
2. MISSION DURATION: 24H 00M
3. IP: 2100Z, 30 AUG; 19.5N, 55.0W
4. EP: 1000Z, 31AUG; 19.5N, 45.0W
5. ON-STATION DURATION: 12H 00M
6. ETA WFF: 1600Z, 31AUG
7. DROPSONDES DEPLOYED: 0
8. ALTITUDE: 55,000 TO 65,000 FT
9. PATTERN: N-S RACETRACK WITHIN BOX BOUNDED BY 19.5N
55.0 W, 10.0N 55.0W, 10.0N 45.0W, 19.5N, 45.0W.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
ECD


Quoting 1132. stoormfury:
strange no talk of recon. hope the islanders are watching this closely


There is a NOAA mission right now.

URNT15 KWBC 311500
NOAA9 01XXA WAVE HDOB 09 20130831
145100 1424N 05758W 1753 13278 0665 -621 //// 211006 007 /// /// 05
145130 1421N 05758W 1755 13278 0667 -622 //// 182005 005 /// /// 05
145200 1417N 05758W 1756 13275 0669 -622 //// 226004 004 /// /// 05
145230 1413N 05758W 1755 13276 0668 -619 //// 233004 004 /// /// 05
145300 1410N 05758W 1756 13274 0669 -618 //// 259004 005 /// /// 05
145330 1406N 05759W 1754 13280 0670 -619 //// 252005 005 /// /// 05
145400 1402N 05759W 1753 13282 0669 -620 //// 246006 007 /// /// 05
145430 1359N 05759W 1752 13283 0667 -619 //// 239007 008 /// /// 05
145500 1355N 05759W 1752 13286 0665 -622 //// 213006 007 /// /// 05
145530 1351N 05759W 1755 13276 0667 -622 //// 233004 005 /// /// 05
145600 1348N 05759W 1754 13281 0667 -623 //// 234005 005 /// /// 05
145630 1344N 05759W 1753 13283 0667 -622 //// 241005 006 /// /// 05
145700 1341N 05759W 1753 13283 0667 -622 //// 226005 005 /// /// 05
145730 1337N 05759W 1752 13280 0667 -621 //// 240005 006 /// /// 05
145800 1333N 05759W 1753 13282 0665 -621 //// 225006 006 /// /// 05
145830 1330N 05759W 1753 13282 0664 -621 //// 215005 005 /// /// 05
145900 1326N 05759W 1753 13281 0666 -620 //// 214005 005 /// /// 05
145930 1322N 05759W 1754 13280 0665 -620 //// 201004 004 /// /// 05
150000 1319N 05800W 1753 13280 0667 -620 //// 207003 004 /// /// 05
150030 1315N 05800W 1753 13280 0666 -620 //// 211003 004 /// /// 05
1140. GatorWX
Quoting 1137. pcola57:
Still got this "whatever" hanging around here..



I tried lol. I think the focus is on the catl wave. You see the rig obs I posted?
Quoting 1135. wunderkidcayman:

I still say it will be N of Barbados by 1degree


More than one as Barbados is bisected by 13N and 60W and it is already near 15 N.
Quoting 1116. kmanislander:
Due West as seen in satellite loops




Interesting on how far S they plot that low it about 14N/13.5N according to that map
1143. JRRP
1144. Kyon5
Here is the plane currently investigating the CATL wave:

Link


1145. pcola57
Quoting 1140. GatorWX:


I tried lol. I think the focus is on the catl wave. You see the rig obs I posted?


No I didn't Gator..
Sorry..
Been in and out on here..
Anything interesting?
Quoting 1138. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



000
NOUS42 KNHC 291527
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT THU 29 AUGUST 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 30/1100Z TO 31/1100Z AUGUST 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-089

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: NOAA 49 WILL FLY A TDR MISSION
INTO SUSPECT AREA NEAR 15N 50W, DEPARTING ST CROIX 31/1300Z,
ALTITUDE 41,000 TO 45,000 FT.
3. REMARKS:
A. GLOBAL HAWK NA873 DEPARTED 29/1300Z FLYING EASTERLY WAVE/
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. MISSION DURATION 24 HRS. ALTITUDE 55,000
TO 65,000 FT. SEE TCPOD 13-088 FOR ADDITIONAL INFO.
B. GLOBAL HAWK NA871 TAKE-OFF: 1600Z 30 AUGUST
1. STORM/AREA OF INTEREST: AFRICAN EASTERLY WAVE-
DEPRESSION/EAST OF LESSER ANTILLES
2. MISSION DURATION: 24H 00M
3. IP: 2100Z, 30 AUG; 19.5N, 55.0W
4. EP: 1000Z, 31AUG; 19.5N, 45.0W
5. ON-STATION DURATION: 12H 00M
6. ETA WFF: 1600Z, 31AUG
7. DROPSONDES DEPLOYED: 0
8. ALTITUDE: 55,000 TO 65,000 FT
9. PATTERN: N-S RACETRACK WITHIN BOX BOUNDED BY 19.5N
55.0 W, 10.0N 55.0W, 10.0N 45.0W, 19.5N, 45.0W.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
ECD




A synoptic flight looking at upper levels ??
Quoting 1141. kmanislander:


More than one as Barbados is bisected by 13N and 60W and it is already near 15 N.

It's actually more near 14.5N
New sfc map has it closer to 13N
1148. 62901IL
Quoting 1138. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



000
NOUS42 KNHC 291527
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT THU 29 AUGUST 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 30/1100Z TO 31/1100Z AUGUST 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-089

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: NOAA 49 WILL FLY A TDR MISSION
INTO SUSPECT AREA NEAR 15N 50W, DEPARTING ST CROIX 31/1300Z,
ALTITUDE 41,000 TO 45,000 FT.
3. REMARKS:
A. GLOBAL HAWK NA873 DEPARTED 29/1300Z FLYING EASTERLY WAVE/
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. MISSION DURATION 24 HRS. ALTITUDE 55,000
TO 65,000 FT. SEE TCPOD 13-088 FOR ADDITIONAL INFO.
B. GLOBAL HAWK NA871 TAKE-OFF: 1600Z 30 AUGUST
1. STORM/AREA OF INTEREST: AFRICAN EASTERLY WAVE-
DEPRESSION/EAST OF LESSER ANTILLES
2. MISSION DURATION: 24H 00M
3. IP: 2100Z, 30 AUG; 19.5N, 55.0W
4. EP: 1000Z, 31AUG; 19.5N, 45.0W
5. ON-STATION DURATION: 12H 00M
6. ETA WFF: 1600Z, 31AUG
7. DROPSONDES DEPLOYED: 0
8. ALTITUDE: 55,000 TO 65,000 FT
9. PATTERN: N-S RACETRACK WITHIN BOX BOUNDED BY 19.5N
55.0 W, 10.0N 55.0W, 10.0N 45.0W, 19.5N, 45.0W.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
ECD



is Recon flying in today? And if so, where?
Quoting 1133. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
by 70n 75n should be a named system or close to it if it takes off

got a couple of days to see


It has a closed wind field already. If the convection builds sufficiently it would not take much to go from 0% to TD LOL.
1150. Gearsts
Quoting 1147. wunderkidcayman:

It's actually more near 14.5N
New sfc map has it closer to 13N
15nLink
Quoting 1148. 62901IL:

is Recon flying in today? And if so, where?

Not USAF RECON
NASA and NOAA RECON flying today
Quoting 1148. 62901IL:

is Recon flying in today? And if so, where?
flying a race track pattern n too s doing sampling
Bust Season all the way.
1154. pcola57
Sorry Gator..
Gotta run..
I'll try to check them out later on..
BBL.. :)
that funny I see three tropical storms on here!
1157. JRRP
1158. 62901IL
Quoting 1151. wunderkidcayman:

Not USAF RECON
NASA and NOAA RECON flying today

Will they transmit data to the public?
Quoting 1152. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
flying a race track pattern n too s doing sampling

Are they flying in to the area that NHC has dubbed as 0%?
Quoting 1149. kmanislander:


It has a closed wind field already. If the convection builds sufficiently it would not take much to go from 0% to TD LOL.
I know but it being kept in check for now
Quoting 1158. 62901IL:

Will they transmit data to the public?

Are they flying in to the area that NHC has dubbed as 0%?



9. PATTERN: N-S RACETRACK WITHIN BOX BOUNDED BY 19.5N
55.0 W, 10.0N 55.0W, 10.0N 45.0W, 19.5N, 45.0W.

1161. SLU
West winds reported from Barbados, Grenada, St. Lucia, Trinidad and Tobago. No question that a large and closed circulation exists.
1162. 62901IL
Quoting 1161. SLU:
West winds reported from Barbados, Grenada, St. Lucia, Trinidad and Tobago. No question that a large and closed circulation exists.

Any buoys in that "large and closed circulation"?
1163. Gearsts
Quoting 1161. SLU:
West winds reported from Barbados, Grenada, St. Lucia, Trinidad and Tobago. No question that a large and closed circulation exists.
But the wave is still far from the islands.
two tropical storm moving west!! watch out!
1165. hydrus
Quoting 1161. SLU:
West winds reported from Barbados, Grenada, St. Lucia, Trinidad and Tobago. No question that a large and closed circulation exists.

Interesting to watch..Things will pop soon I believe. .Slow going sure..
There is no question that we should see at least an invest this afternoon low level circulation is well defined.
1167. hydrus
<
Looking better 3 hours later.



Quoting 1166. Hurricanes305:
There is no question that we should see at least an invest this afternoon low level circulation is well defined.



if wind shear drops off this thing could take off in a hurry
Quoting 1150. Gearsts:
15nLink

Yep much closer look and yep it's S of 15N and its very clear
Quoting 1166. Hurricanes305:
There is no question that we should see at least an invest this afternoon low level circulation is well defined.


97L by this evening or perhaps before then would not surprise me.
At least so far, the CMC might actually be right about this thing developing.

Of course, if you throw enough crap on the wall, something's bound to stick at some point.
Looks like an anticyclone now building overhead as well. Could be game on

1174. GatorWX
Quoting 1168. kmanislander:
Looking better 3 hours later.





Going strictly off those maps, how so?
1175. hydrus
Quoting 1136. kmanislander:


I do, but with one caveat. In loop imagery we can see upper level winds out of the SW ahead of the system which is shear. How it deals with this and whether shear values continue to fall will make all the difference as to how well it does. It is clearly capable of generating convection as we can see but it is being displaced to the NE of the low center due to winds being out of the SW aloft.
Things can get " funky " now I like to say. I have seen large areas of shear drop to near nothing in just 6 hours, allowing systems to form unexpectedly.
Quoting 1173. kmanislander:
Looks like an anticyclone now building overhead as well. Could be game on


I totally agree but I still say no true development till further W
1177. Gearsts
Quoting 1170. wunderkidcayman:

Yep much closer look and yep it's S of 15N and its very clear
uhh ok...
Quoting 1173. kmanislander:
Looks like an anticyclone now building overhead as well. Could be game on

I think you are right
1179. hydrus
Quoting 1173. kmanislander:
Looks like an anticyclone now building overhead as well. Could be game on

The HWRF has been looking rather ominous lately. I do hope it does not come to fruition.
1180. Kyon5

Quoting 1173. kmanislander:
Looks like an anticyclone now building overhead as well. Could be game on

If the anticylone manages to fight off the shear, then this could become Gabrielle.
Also, watch out for the CATL wave. NAM, HWRF, UKMET, CMC are all showing development still. Given the GFS and Euro has done statistically speaking incredibly poor the last few days for 120+ hour forecasts, I'm going to place my faith in the UKMET right now with slow development in the Caribbean being not out of the question.
1182. 62901IL
Quoting 1179. hydrus:
The HWRF has been looking rather ominous lately. I do hope it does not come to fruition.

Ominous? Can you post the run?
Quoting 1174. GatorWX:


Going strictly off those maps, how so?


Go back on the vort by 3 hours and compare both the colour and symmetry. More orange,less yellow and more symmetrical. Not dramatic but improving.
1184. GatorWX
Quoting 1173. kmanislander:
Looks like an anticyclone now building overhead as well. Could be game on



I agree this is looking better and better this morning, but isn't that anticyclone hundreds of miles away in the wrong direction? Sorry, not trying to be critical, lol. Just observing.
1185. SLU
Quoting 1162. 62901IL:

Any buoys in that "large and closed circulation"?


They are to the north of the center

Quoting 1163. Gearsts:
But the wave is still far from the islands.


If you look at the visible loops, you can see the low level clouds near the south eastern Caribbean getting drawn into the large circulation which is as a result of a very large inflow.

Quoting 1165. hydrus:

Interesting to watch..Things will pop soon I believe. .Slow going sure..


It deserves an invest designation IMO.
1186. Gearsts
Quoting 1184. GatorWX:


I agree this is looking better and better this morning, but isn't that anticyclone hundreds of miles away in the wrong direction? Sorry, not trying to be critical, lol. Just observing.
No
Quoting 1179. hydrus:
The HWRF has been looking rather ominous lately. I do hope it does not come to fruition.

And also the fact that it tracks it further W and it continues to move W it's something that if this does play out the NW Carib need to watch and the E half of the GOM
1188. Gearsts
UKMET seems to initialize off the low correctly as being already closed.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 1182. 62901IL:

Ominous? Can you post the run?

Link

Quoting 1183. kmanislander:


Go back on the vort by 3 hours and compare both the colour and symmetry. More orange,less yellow and more symmetrical. Not dramatic but improving.

Yep

Quoting 1184. GatorWX:


I agree this is looking better and better this morning, but isn't that anticyclone hundreds of miles away in the wrong direction? Sorry, not trying to be critical, lol. Just observing.

Which one is the question the one to its E or the one on top of it

1192. hydrus
Quoting 1187. wunderkidcayman:

And also the fact that it tracks it further W and it continues to move W it's something that if this does play out the NW Carib need to watch and the E half of the GOM
Exactly. Always a serious scenario when conditions are favorable.
Quoting 1184. GatorWX:


I agree this is looking better and better this morning, but isn't that anticyclone hundreds of miles away in the wrong direction? Sorry, not trying to be critical, lol. Just observing.


No, it is actually right on top of it.
Quoting 1132. stoormfury:
strange no talk of recon. hope the islanders are watching this closely
No need, it is not even close to a TD status.
1195. JRRP
Quoting kmanislander:
Looks like an anticyclone now building overhead as well. Could be game on


that will help the wave
1196. Relix
Quoting 1177. Gearsts:
uhh ok...


Oh. Its going to Cayman Islands then!
1197. GatorWX
1198. vis0
CREDIT: NASA (WV ch.3 has its 2 least WV areas contrast enhanced 2% to better show anemic wispiness. ch.5 has
magenta Lat. Long. lines added) CLICK ON play button = play, CLICK outside the play button plays in pop up re-size the popup to your liking.






If one looks at SATs from the similar 3-5 analog yrs* notice the wispiness of the pTwF (tropical cyclonic formations). Most
eyes go to the bright/strong colours.

In those other years the connected moisture at the wispy level was strong or densely connected. That is important as that's
the part of the pTwF (tropical cyclonic formations)
that carries it through the thick and thin of its journey. Like the embryo in the egg needs the egg white. Also for the tropical
cyclonic formations to "inject" itself into/under a HIGH or sinking air it uses that wispy level as to be strong enough to enter under the HIGH
but not too strong clash with the HIGH. In time this allows for a TS to form and/or moisturize the air so its more buoyant for the following tries,
Another analogy, in reproduction when the egg is inseminated (HEY its science)* it does
so with the most aggressive yet delicate manner. For a pTwF to go under a protective HIGH it needs a strong continuous (as in
surrounding the entire cyclonic area) wispy level and i see anemic wispiness via water vapor channels.

*Some might know this but just in case there is a great young mind reading: learn from nature its how most great deductions are/were
done by observing life around you that has not been influenced by mankind. As i stated months ago i post SAT images i tweak not just copy n paste
& secondly post info that should be known already but just in case its not i share it.
2 minds are better/greater than 1 BUT ONLY when they are connected.


..