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Atmospheric Struggles to Avoid Snowing in Massachusetts

By: Bob Henson 4:39 PM GMT on February 12, 2015

Even the quiet days in between big storms are producing snowflakes during the amazing siege of winter weather that’s brought parts of eastern New England to a near-standstill. Wednesday brought a whiff of ocean-effect snow, the less-common Atlantic counterpart to the lake-effect snow that often hits cities like Buffalo and Syracuse. Both phenomena are driven by cold air passing over relatively warm water. Lake-effect snow is assisted by bands of converging air that develop when surface winds are aligned with the very linear lakes Erie and Ontario. The New England coast lacks such a geography, so ocean-effect snow is more rare, developing only when the atmospheric structure is highly favorable. Temperatures early Wednesday were in the low 20s along the Massachusetts coast, but as cold as 10°F less than 3000 feet above the surface. This led to enough instability for very shallow clouds and light snow, especially over Cape Cod. A strong inversion above this layer kept the clouds from growing any deeper, putting a lid on more intense snow.

Boston’s Logan Airport recorded eight hours of light snow but only 0.5” of accumulation. Traces of snow were observed as far northwest as suburban Andover--falling under blue sky, according to WSI’s Peter Neilley. “It was snowing lightly despite the fact that two-thirds of the sky was clear, and the southeastern third had just a thin cirrus overcast,” Neilley said. “On the very southeast horizon was some stratocumulus.”



Figure 1. A stripe of ocean-effect snow covered southeast Massachusetts and Rhode Island on Wednesday afternoon, February 11. Image credit: NOAA/College of DuPage.

No rest for the snow-weary
New Englanders continue to grapple with the aftermath of three major snowstorms--Juno, Linus, and Marcus--in less than three weeks. Boston.com writer Charlotte Wilder captured the event’s emotional impact in “A Breakup Letter to Snow from the City of Boston” (right before Valentine’s Day, no less). Today’s ocean-effect snow pushed Boston’s total to 41.3” for the month--just 0.3” short of the February record--and 78.5” for the season. Since the first of the year, the city has set heaviest-snowfall records for intervals of 5, 7, 10, 14, 20, 30, and 40 days. (Thanks go to Michael Palmer and Kathryn Prociv at the Weather Channel for these statistics.)

Upper levels across North America remain locked in a pattern that supports more nor’easters, with the polar jet stream diving southward from Canada across the Midwest, then arcing across New England. The next winter storm will intensify into a powerhouse east of New England on Thursday and Friday, with surface pressure deepening quickly enough (more than 24 mb in 24 hours) to qualify the nor’easter as a “bomb.” It appears the storm will intensify just far enough out to sea to spare the coastline from anything more than continued ocean-effect snow. In its wake, though, the system will pull down another shot of frigid air across the Northeast, setting the stage for a potentially much more serious snow threat late in the weekend with the next nor’easter. Both the ECMWF and GFS models develop this second system near or north of the benchmark location of 40°N and 70°W, a good sign of potential impacts to New England. Temperatures will be cold enough to support another event with high snow-to-liquid ratios, perhaps 20-to-1 or greater, and the most likely focal point once again appears to be from eastern Massachusetts to coastal Maine. If the model trends continue, we could see rapid intensification of the surface low, with blizzard conditions and more than a foot of new snow quite possible over eastern New England (including the Boston area). While this week’s light snows mainly added insult to injury, a storm of the magnitude predicted by some model runs for this weekend could be a daunting blow to already-crippled parts of eastern Massachusetts.

Update (6:00 PM EST]: A blizzard watch has been issued for Saturday evening through Sunday evening for coastal counties of northern Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine, including the cities of Boston and Portland. Widespread accumulations of more than a foot are expected, with wind gusts to 50 - 60 mph, very cold temperatures and wind chills, and extensive blowing snow,




Figure 2. Temperature anomalies (departures from average) of 30°F or more are possible across much of the central and eastern U.S. next week, as depicted in this 168-hour forecast from the GFS model valid at 0000 GMT on Thursday, February 19. Image credit: ClimateReanalyzer.org/University of Maine.


Winter’s coldest week coming up?
The upper-level low that’s plagued New England is projected to sharpen and shift westward next week, tapping extremely cold Arctic air. Several strong surface highs will likely move into the central U.S., much as we saw in early January, but this time bearing even more frigid temperatures. A band of significant snow, sleet, and/or freezing rain could materialize early next week from the mid-South to the mid-Atlantic. The GFS model, which has a cold bias on surface temperature, has pulled back from earlier predictions that would have approached all-time lows in some areas. In our warming winter climate, such records are increasingly hard to come by. Still, we can expect some daily records to be toppled or at least approached across much of the central and eastern U.S. over the next 7 to 10 days (see Figure 2), with some brutal wind chills possible. Already, wind chill advisories for values well below 0°F are in place across the Red River Valley of North Dakota and Minnesota, as well as much of Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, and western New England. Comparable warnings for extreme cold (wind chill) are in effect over much of Ontario and Quebec.


Figure 3. Snow depth at 0600 GMT on Thursday, February 12, averaged more than 20” across most of New England, with small pockets of more than 40” (purple hues) evident in several states. Image credit: NOAA/NWS National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center.


The best chance for truly historic U.S. cold this weekend or early next week could be over the very deep snowpack of New England, where depths of 10” to 30” or more are now widespread (see Figure 3). On a cold, clear night, snow cover enhances the loss of heat from the ground as radiational cooling predominates (also dubbed nocturnal cooling, as blogger Lee Grenci explains). A deep snowpack also brings the “surface” closer to the height of weather instrument shelters, where thermometers are located 4 - 6 feet above ground level. Since temperatures are coldest just above the top of the snow on nights of strong radiational cooling, deep snow can act to reduce temperatures at thermometer height. Such a setup in Oklahoma brought the nation’s most recent all-time state record low. A major winter storm dropped heavy snow across northeast Oklahoma on February 9, 2011, including a state-record 24-hour accumulation of 27” in the town of Spavinaw. The next morning, an Oklahoma Mesonet station in Nowata dipped to –31°F, breaking Oklahoma’s all-time record of –27°F (which had stood for 64 years). Just a week later, Nowata hit 75°F.

Bob Henson


Figure 4. The Alps of MIT: With more than 40 inches of snow blanketing the Boston area over the past two weeks, snow removal efforts on the campus of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge have engineered this new five-story-high mountain of snow. Image credit: Tom Gearty/MIT.



Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Sneaux is of the Devil, as is Winter.

New Orleans NWS Slidell Disco

One thing that is very evident in models at middle week next
week...is that a significant cold air dump is expected. Colder
than we have seen since early January from the looks of things.
Presents a couple of forecast questions. First...will
precipitation move out before coldest air arrives. Current
forecast is predicated on precipitation departing before deepest
cold air arrives. Will not mention snow flurries early Wednesday
as moisture moves out...but would not be shocked to see a few
reports from within the local area. Any moisture should be out of
the area around midday Wednesday.

The roller coaster ride continues with forecast temperatures.
Sunday and Monday mornings do not look quite as chilly as they did
earlier in the week. High temperatures will still struggle to get
much past 60. Monday a little milder...but if clouds move in too
early...GFS temperature solution would be better than European model (ecmwf).
Trending warm for now. Tuesday highs likely to be during the first
half of the day with falling temperatures later. Wednesday and
Thursday will see temperatures much below normal...about 20
degrees below normal. In fact...Wednesday may see temperatures
stay steady or fall for much of the day. If model guidance is in
the ballpark...freeze/hard freeze warnings will likely be
necessary on Thursday morning of next week. Some concern that high
temperature guidance may be negatively biased by climatology a bit
next Thursday...warming things a little too quick. 35

&&
Thanks for the update Mr. Henson. Still hoping for some winter precip. Tuesday and Wednesday!!
Quoting 2. hurricanes2018:


more snow on tuesday night for the northeast!
UKMET 12z

Quoting 5. Drakoen:

UKMET 12z


no more storms!! we have a big snow storm coming this weekend we do not wanted anymore in the northeast i hope this low going out to sea!
#1 - Patrap

last part of NWS-New Orleans discussion:

"Some concern that high
temperature guidance may be negatively biased by climatology a bit
next Thursday...warming things a little too quick.
"

I'm not clear on what they're trying to say here :/
That snow mountain seems like a huge red flag. Hopefully once that snow starts melting the mountain doesn't collapse like a ton of bricks.
I noticed on the link provided by Dr. Masters that the record snow depth for Mass. is 62" a little west of Boston.
That record could possibly fall.

Quoting tampabaymatt:
That snow mountain seems like a huge red flag. Hopefully once that snow starts melting the mountain doesn't collapse like a ton of bricks.


That "mountain" will probably last until May if it's left alone.
Tue eve / Wed morn could be quite interesting how far south to the N Gulf Coast the changeover transition makes it before moisture is shunted EWD. Dry slotting usually wins out, but... ;)
i think i'd rather listen to arguments on global warming ad-nauseum...than more snow in the northeast....sorry guys...i get a flurry or two of snow most years...say thank god i don't live there when the east gets one of their yearly snow storms....and then move on.....
Quoting 8. tampabaymatt:

That snow mountain seems like a huge red flag. Hopefully once that snow starts melting the mountain doesn't collapse like a ton of bricks.

I recall one very snowy year in the early 90s when I was in grad school in New England. The closest mall was about 30 minutes away, and the snow piles were so big that parking at the mall was an issue. Someone started a pool as to when the snow piles would finally melt. I think the winner of the pool had chosen a date in late May. And they had significantly less snow than the university did. It was a winter wonderland for many weeks.
doom!!!!! Potential Impacts
Snow: This storm has the potential of dropping a foot or more of snow in parts of coastal New England. For now, the best chance of at least one foot of snow is in coastal Maine.

For the snow-sieged Boston metro area, 6 inches of snow seems a strong bet, with the potential of a foot or more depending on the exact low track.

Localized areas of New England may see 20+ inches of total snowfall.
Thanks for the update, Bob. The cold bias in the GFS is pretty apparent here in SE Alabama. Five days ago, the predicted low for this morning was about 18. The actual low was 39. The high was supposed to be 47. It's 60 right now. The GFS was too early with the cold air, but the low tomorrow morning is now predicted to be 23. Those are some rather large differences from the GFS. I expect the temperatures will moderate some for Tuesday/Wednesday as well. My low temperature for this very cold winter was 13, and that occurred in November, before we had the extensive snow pack we have now. I'd be amazed if we get any colder air from the next big Arctic outbreaks. What's interesting on both the GFS and ECMWF is the possibility for severe thunderstorms if the low in the Gulf is near where it's predicted to be. The very cold air will have a classic collision with Gulf moisture. The low should go far enough north that we could have a day of severe thunderstorms in south Alabama while north Alabama gets snow. It's not just New England that's getting weird weather.
Quoting ricderr:
i think i'd rather listen to arguments on global warming ad-nauseum...than more snow in the northeast....sorry guys...i get a flurry or two of snow most years...say thank god i don't live there when the east gets one of their yearly snow storms....and then move on.....


It's been snowing in the Northeast? I would have never guessed that.

I guess it's pay back for all the "It's going to rain in Florida" comments.
I watched a show on history channel yesterday,the topic was the little Ice Age and the massive Indonesion sp? volcano explosion...and one of the major thoughts on its happening was an interruption of the gulfstream's warm waters up to say Greenland..and interruption caused by..the global warming of the period which in turn..caused a lot of glacier melt..and the cold Fresh water going into the ocean caused the gulfstream up there to cool and possibly even retreat...............today when they talk of global warming,we must keep in the back of our minds what happened some centuries ago for Europe and north America..could our present..global warming..in our near future cause..a new ice age?...just a thought
Thank you Mr. Henson.
It's been snowing in the Northeast? I would have never guessed that.

I guess it's pay back for all the "It's going to rain in Florida" comments.



LOL>......yep...i'll be grosuing about that in the coming months.....especially with those that act like it's a once in a lifetime event...rain in florida?......wow...so unusual :-)
Quoting 16. Sfloridacat5:



It's been snowing in the Northeast? I would have never guessed that.

I guess it's pay back for all the "It's going to rain in Florida" comments.


Yeah, I guess it's okay to talk about local weather as long as it's certain localities. LOL!
Quoting 19. ricderr:

It's been snowing in the Northeast? I would have never guessed that.

I guess it's pay back for all the "It's going to rain in Florida" comments.



LOL>......yep...i'll be grosuing about that in the coming months.....especially with those that act like it's a once in a lifetime event...rain in florida?......wow...so unusual :-)


You may not be grousing about it as much as you think....Scott seems to have disappeared.
You may not be grousing about it as much as you think....Scott seems to have disappeared.




shhhhh...(edited to meet posting guidelines)
Quoting DocNDswamp:
Tue eve / Wed morn could be quite interesting how far south to the N Gulf Coast the changeover transition makes it before moisture is shunted EWD. Dry slotting usually wins out, but... ;)
I think it will this time as well. The really cold air just doesn't make it here before the moisture leaves. North sections of the deep south have a better chance for snow but I think we stay with all rain, especially if the scenario for widespread thunderstorms sets up.
12:05 pm EST East Haven, CT Weather
Weather Condition Icon
31°F
Feels Like 23°
Light Snow
Nearby locations are also reporting snow

Next 6 Hours
Periods of snow. Cloudy with temperatures steady near 33F. Snowfall of about half an inch through 6:00pm.
Action: Quote | Remove Comment | Modify Comment
Quoting 7. LAbonbon:

#1 - Patrap

last part of NWS-New Orleans discussion:

"Some concern that high
temperature guidance may be negatively biased by climatology a bit
next Thursday...warming things a little too quick.
"

I'm not clear on what they're trying to say here :/

Basically, they are saying that based on climatology (at this time of year), things warm up more quickly. Based on all of the elements of the forecast excluding climatology (depth of the cold air, snowpack, this year's predominant pattern, teleconnections, etc.), the actual temp may not warm up as quickly as climatology would generally indicate.

Or... to sum it up - this forecast doesn't mesh well with climatology, and the forecaster's confidence in the models is crap because of the biased induced by climatology.
Quoting 17. LargoFl:

I watched a show on history channel yesterday,the topic was the little Ice Age and the massive Indonesion sp? volcano explosion...and one of the major thoughts on its happening was an interruption of the gulfstream's warm waters up to say Greenland..and interruption caused by..the global warming of the period which in turn..caused a lot of glacier melt..and the cold Fresh water going into the ocean caused the gulfstream up there to cool and possibly even retreat...............today when they talk of global warming,we must keep in the back of our minds what happened some centuries ago for Europe and north America..could our present..global warming..in our near future cause..a new ice age?...just a thought


Heya Largo, Skeptical Science has a great page about it complete with the links to the published science on the topic which can be found here

An excerpt which gets at the idea you brought up:

"In recent years there has been a huge debate on how global warming may impact the Gulf Stream and the AMOC. A major consideration is the potential for a slowdown or stop of the AMOC in response to freshwater from the melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which lowers the density of the surface waters and puts the brakes on the thermohaline component of the AMOC. The AMOC has a considerable influence over European climate from the northward heat transport by the Gulf Stream and a slowdown or halt of the AMOC could have a large impact on climate and even induce abrupt climate changes (Alley et al, 2002; Alley, 2007). The IPCC Assessment Report 4 considered various models, estimating up to a 50% slowdown in the AMOC by 2100, though none predicted a complete halt. More recent studies support the view that it is very unlikely that the AMOC will undergo any abrupt transition this century (Allison et al., 2009). Though, between 1957 and 2004 there are indications of a 30% slowdown in the AMOC at 25oN (Bryden et al., 2005). Keenlyside et al. (2008) forecasts that the AMOC will weaken over the next decade, but they argue that large uncertainties exist in previous measurements of AMOC variability due to poor observation and modelling analyses. Recently, Willis (2010) used satellite observations of sea surface height and sensor buoy observations of velocity, salinity and temperature of the Atlantic Ocean at 41oN and found no significant change in the AMOC strength between 2002 and 2009. Despite interannual fluctuations, observations show that it's unlikely there has been any significant slowing of the AMOC during the past 20 years"
Quoting LAbonbon:

I recall one very snowy year in the early 90s when I was in grad school in New England. The closest mall was about 30 minutes away, and the snow piles were so big that parking at the mall was an issue. Someone started a pool as to when the snow piles would finally melt. I think the winner of the pool had chosen a date in late May. And they had significantly less snow than the university did. It was a winter wonderland for many weeks.
LOL. I made the same bet when I was in high school, so that was the early 60's some time. The school parking lot had piles that were about 8 feet tall, with a couple over 10 feet. They had to put up directional signs to the various buildings because you couldn't see them when you were down in the snow maze. I bet Memorial Day. The last little bit melted the day after.
Thanks Mr. Henson...This pattern may last. Folks in Boston may get a lot more snow.
Quoting tampabaymatt:


Yeah, I guess it's okay to talk about local weather as long as it's certain localities. LOL!
I don't mind most of the Florida posts. Some of the STS comments are a little extreme, he gets push back, and then we deteriorate into the "Yes, you did" and "No, I didn't" debate, which gets really tiresome. I imagine Scott has things going on in real life that take his time, but he'll be back. You just can't keep a real weather geek away from here for too long. :-)
The 12z GFS is showing two blizzards in the span of 4 days for New England.


Quoting 26. jeffs713:


Basically, they are saying that based on climatology (at this time of year), things warm up more quickly. Based on all of the elements of the forecast excluding climatology (depth of the cold air, snowpack, this year's predominant pattern, teleconnections, etc.), the actual temp may not warm up as quickly as climatology would generally indicate.

Or... to sum it up - this forecast doesn't mesh well with climatology, and the forecaster's confidence in the models is crap because of the biased induced by climatology.

Thank you very much for clarifying it :)

Quoting 28. sar2401:

LOL. I made the same bet when I was in high school, so that was the early 60's some time. The school parking lot had piles that were about 8 feet tall, with a couple over 10 feet. They had to put up directional signs to the various buildings because you couldn't see them when you were down in the snow maze. I bet Memorial Day. The last little bit melted the day after.

The photo in Henson's post from MIT has that pile at 5 stories (!) That's pretty darn big. Do you remember the story from that massive multi-feet lake-effect storm south of Buffalo earlier this winter, where kids were playing on the snow pile and they were plowed under, a cop (I think) happened to see one of their limbs sticking out, and they were rescued? That story was vaguely horrifying, and it's stuck with me whenever I see a photo of a huge pile of snow like the one in the blog post. But I'm not sure if I've seen photos of larger snow piles than the ones on the web after that lake-effect storm.
As usual Sar, no need to try and predict what will happen the next 7-10 days. I think it will be interesting for us, but I can't begin to guess what is actually going to happen. Let's just hope the dreaded ice doesn't make a visit.

Busted forecasts will probably be the rule. I think as a region, the Southeast is going to run the gamut from severe weather to heavy snow. Trying to pinpoint what and where greater than 24 hours out will be nearly impossible.

Ill take spring now.

Quoting 15. sar2401:

Thanks for the update, Bob. The cold bias in the GFS is pretty apparent here in SE Alabama. Five days ago, the predicted low for this morning was about 18. The actual low was 39. The high was supposed to be 47. It's 60 right now. The GFS was too early with the cold air, but the low tomorrow morning is now predicted to be 23. Those are some rather large differences from the GFS. I expect the temperatures will moderate some for Tuesday/Wednesday as well. My low temperature for this very cold winter was 13, and that occurred in November, before we had the extensive snow pack we have now. I'd be amazed if we get any colder air from the next big Arctic outbreaks. What's interesting on both the GFS and ECMWF is the possibility for severe thunderstorms if the low in the Gulf is near where it's predicted to be. The very cold air will have a classic collision with Gulf moisture. The low should go far enough north that we could have a day of severe thunderstorms in south Alabama while north Alabama gets snow. It's not just New England that's getting weird weather.
35. bwi
NWS pretty optimistic about snow in DC (no mention of rain or mix in the forecast). I have my doubts :) We've been over-forecasting the cold (under-forecasting the temps) all winter so far, so I think I'll go with the trends...

Monday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tuesday: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Tuesday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Wednesday: A chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 30%
Quoting 27. Naga5000:



Heya Largo, Skeptical Science has a great page about it complete with the links to the published science on the topic which can be found here

An excerpt which gets at the idea you brought up:

"In recent years there has been a huge debate on how global warming may impact the Gulf Stream and the AMOC. A major consideration is the potential for a slowdown or stop of the AMOC in response to freshwater from the melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which lowers the density of the surface waters and puts the brakes on the thermohaline component of the AMOC. The AMOC has a considerable influence over European climate from the northward heat transport by the Gulf Stream and a slowdown or halt of the AMOC could have a large impact on climate and even induce abrupt climate changes (Alley et al, 2002; Alley, 2007). The IPCC Assessment Report 4 considered various models, estimating up to a 50% slowdown in the AMOC by 2100, though none predicted a complete halt. More recent studies support the view that it is very unlikely that the AMOC will undergo any abrupt transition this century (Allison et al., 2009). Though, between 1957 and 2004 there are indications of a 30% slowdown in the AMOC at 25oN (Bryden et al., 2005). Keenlyside et al. (2008) forecasts that the AMOC will weaken over the next decade, but they argue that large uncertainties exist in previous measurements of AMOC variability due to poor observation and modelling analyses. Recently, Willis (2010) used satellite observations of sea surface height and sensor buoy observations of velocity, salinity and temperature of the Atlantic Ocean at 41oN and found no significant change in the AMOC strength between 2002 and 2009. Despite interannual fluctuations, observations show that it's unlikely there has been any significant slowing of the AMOC during the past 20 years"
say thanks for this...My guess is..over time this could very well BE the cause of the next ice age..and should a massive volcanic eruption happen at the same time..oh boy..but unless something drastic happens..most of us alive today wont see it..but..now future generations just may...the history channel also says..earths climate does indeed go thru ice ages to warm periods all thru its history.
snow into the Panhandle of florida next week???...........................................
It has been so cold in the northeast this winter that I am almost looking forward to black fly and mosquito season.

Almost...
Great Blog entry Mr. Henson.

The gist of what is currently going on in the NE is a reflection of what happens when the polar jet gets "stuck" in a certain position for whatever the reason; we normally get relief in the Northern Hemisphere after a few days as the weather systems continue to traverse from west to east across the Earth. However if the polar jet gets stuck for a longer period of time (or the same type of pattern persists for each passing frontal or low system for a prolonged period) then we can end up with this seasons "perfect" snow storm set-up for the NE due to the warmer SST's off the coast or some of the heat wave issues we have seen during the summer in parts of the world including the US and parts of Europe/Russia over the past several years as well. Starting to figure out that the polar jet means everything to a large degree in terms of weather events in the Northern Hemisphere in the higher latitudes in any given season.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

WINDS WILL BE INCREASING BEHIND A COLD FRONT TODAY. A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO WIND
CHILL VALUES OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA TONIGHT.

A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA TODAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
WINDS.

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
FAR NORTH GEORGIA. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO 5 DEGREES OR BELOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A PERIOD OF WINDY AND COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS WEEK
AND OVER THE WEEKEND. WIND CHILLS OF 5 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO OR
COLDER CAN BE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

IN ADDITION...SOME MIXED WINTER PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

Quoting 36. LargoFl:

say thanks for this...My guess is..over time this could very well BE the cause of the next ice age..and should a massive volcanic eruption happen at the same time..oh boy..but unless something drastic happens..most of us alive today wont see it..but..now future generations just may...the history channel also says..earths climate does indeed go thru ice ages to warm periods all thru its history.


No doubt the Earth cycles, I don't think anyone here has ever claimed it doesn't. What we are experiencing is very different, and yes, you are right, it is entirely possible that in the not so distant future (greater than 100 years) the AMOC could slow down to the point of causing a catastrophic abrupt change.

This is a good topic to mention how when people say "the science is settled" they are referring to the very basics: that we are increasing the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere, that CO2 is a green house gas, that it is main driver of the current warming trend. There is still a lot to be studied and figured out. Which is why there are a lot of people researching the finer points.
Quoting 7. LAbonbon:

#1 - Patrap

last part of NWS-New Orleans discussion:

"Some concern that high
temperature guidance may be negatively biased by climatology a bit
next Thursday...warming things a little too quick.
"

I'm not clear on what they're trying to say here :/
Quoting 26. jeffs713:


Basically, they are saying that based on climatology (at this time of year), things warm up more quickly. Based on all of the elements of the forecast excluding climatology (depth of the cold air, snowpack, this year's predominant pattern, teleconnections, etc.), the actual temp may not warm up as quickly as climatology would generally indicate.

Or... to sum it up - this forecast doesn't mesh well with climatology, and the forecaster's confidence in the models is crap because of the biased induced by climatology.


The are probably referring to Model Output Statistics or MOS guidance which is typically used by forecasters. There tend to be biases in the weather models for a given location, but these biases can be accounted for at locations where long periods of observations are available.

For example, let's say location A frequently ends up colder for nighttime lows in February when the GFS model forecasts lows of 30-40F. For that range of forecasts, the model may be too high by 4F, on average. Forecasters looking at the GFS would then see a forecast of 36F in the GFS become a forecast of 32F in the GFS MOS. This is a very generalized example.

So when they are saying that there are issues with climatology making the guidance seem too warm, it is probably that we are nearing the latter half of winter and, many times in past, we have seen arctic outbreaks in the models show up colder on average than what actually occurs. MOS just adjusts the model output based upon the average of past errors, meaning that by definition it will not help a forecaster recognize an extreme event nor help a forecaster recognize an event that is atypical for the season.
Quoting 41. Naga5000:



No doubt the Earth cycles, I don't think anyone here has ever claimed it doesn't. What we are experiencing is very different, and yes, you are right, it is entirely possible that in the not so distant future (greater than 100 years) the AMOC could slow down to the point of causing a catastrophic abrupt change.

This is a good topic to mention how when people say "the science is settled" they are referring to the very basics: that we are increasing the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere, that CO2 is a green house gas, that it is main driver of the current warming trend. There is still a lot to be studied and figured out. Which is why there are a lot of people researching the finer points.
I wonder..if say in 100 years or so..another ice age begins...add to this..no more oil...just think..of food stuffs and heat and transportation etc...in the little ice age..millions died of starvation,cold and disease...but today we have possibly 6 billion people...most live in high rise cities so dependent on oil etc...wow, don't even want to think about it in my lifetime...perhaps billions perish.
Quoting 36. LargoFl:
...My guess is..over time this could very well BE the cause of the next ice age..and should a massive volcanic eruption happen at the same time..oh boy..but unless something drastic happens..most of us alive today wont see it..but..now future generations just may...the history channel also says..earths climate does indeed go thru ice ages to warm periods all thru its history.
Scientists expect AGW/CC to delay the next ice age - atmospheric CO2 would need to drop below 240ppm. Current and rising CO2 levels are high enough to prevent another ice age until that level drops drastically - and right now it's going up drastically.

Human emissions of carbon dioxide will defer the next Ice Age, say scientists.

The last Ice Age ended about 11,500 years ago, and when the next one should begin has not been entirely clear.

Researchers used data on the Earth's orbit and other things to find the historical warm interglacial period that looks most like the current one.

In the journal Nature Geoscience, they write that the next Ice Age would begin within 1,500 years - but emissions have been so high that it will not.

"At current levels of CO2, even if emissions stopped now we'd probably have a long interglacial duration determined by whatever long-term processes could kick in and bring [atmospheric] CO2 down," said Luke Skinner from Cambridge University.

Dr Skinner's group - which also included scientists from University College London, the University of Florida and Norway's Bergen University - calculates that the atmospheric concentration of CO2 would have to fall below about 240 parts per million (ppm) before the glaciation could begin.

The current level is around [400]ppm.
he 12z GFS is showing two blizzards in the span of 4 days for New England. what is going on here!
Here is the current jet set up for the Pacific and Conus:





storm two big northeast again in 144 hours!
Given the setup and recent events you've got to take it seriously.

Wow.

Quoting 32. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The 12z GFS is showing two blizzards in the span of 4 days for New England.






138 hours storm two!! my god!
This is something I was trying to explain earlier in the week. Just because it rains in central Florida or the Lake O watershed, there can still be areas of the state in need of water.

January Rainfall Feeds Lake Okeechobee, Leaves South Florida Dry

Link



MEDIA CONTACT:
Gabe Margasak
South Florida Water Management District
Office: (561) 682-2800 or Cellular: (561) 670-1245
www.sfwmd.gov/news
January Rainfall Feeds Lake Okeechobee, Leaves South Florida Dry
Above-average Kissimmee rainfall contributed to lake inflows
(Click on map for larger version.)
West Palm Beach, FL %u2014 January rainfall was below average across the South Florida
Water Management District (SFWMD), with a notable exception of wetter conditions in
the Kissimmee basins.
%u201CAbove-average rainfall in the Kissimmee region sustained flows into Lake Okeechobee
at a time when we would like to see the lake level falling,%u201D said Jeff Kivett, SFWMD
Division Director of Operations, Engineering and Construction. %u201CIn response, the
District continues to move water south of the lake and utilize all available storage
options.%u201D
District-wide, 1.14 inches of rain fell during the month, representing 59 percent of
average, or 0.79 inches below average.
But the Upper Kissimmee Basin, which helps feed Lake Okeechobee, received 3.20
inches of rainfall, representing 145 percent of average, or 0.99 inches above average. The
Lower Kissimmee Basin also received above-average rainfall, with 1.90 inches
representing 114 percent of average.Lake Okeechobee received only 0.96 inches of direct
rainfall, representing 57 percent of average, or 0.73
inches below average. The lake stood at 14.67 feet
NGVD today, which is 0.02 feet above its historic
average for this time of year but more than a half a
foot higher than this time last year.
The remainder of the District was dry in January,
with Palm Beach and the Southwest Coast being the
driest areas. Eastern Palm Beach received only 0.74
inches of rain, representing 25 percent of average, or
2.22 inches below average.

The Southwest Coast received only 0.52 inches of rain, representing 26 percent of
average, or 1.50 inches below average.

More information is available at:
%u2022 SFWMD Weather/Rainfall Data
%u2022 Climate Prediction Center Precipitation Forecast
%u2022 Interactive %u201CMoving Water South%u201D map: www.sfwmd.gov/movingwatersouth
# # #
About the South Florida Water Management District
The South Florida Water Management District is a regional, governmental agency that oversees the
water resources in the southern half of the state %u2013 16 counties from Orlando to the Keys. It is the
oldest and largest of the state%u2019s five water management districts. The agency mission is to manage
and protect water resources of the region by balancing and improving water quality, flood control,
natural systems and water supply. A key initiative is cleanup and restoration of the Everglades.

South Florida%u2019s Dry Season
%u2022 November %u2013 May
%u2022 About 18 inches of rain is the
average
%u2022 May and October are important
transition months
%u2022 March, April and May have the
highest evaporation rates and
lowest rainfall


storm one!!
The official snow depth here at MSP is 1". Still can see some of the grass in my front yard. We have had as much as 5" on the ground on 1/9/15 but that all melted. Had no snow on the ground for Christmas too.
Quoting 35. bwi:

NWS pretty optimistic about snow in DC (no mention of rain or mix in the forecast). I have my doubts :) We've been over-forecasting the cold (under-forecasting the temps) all winter so far, so I think I'll go with the trends...

Monday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tuesday: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Tuesday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Wednesday: A chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 30%


Mine:

Monday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Tuesday: Snow. High near 36. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Tuesday Night: Snow. Low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Today's 12z runs are unanimous for a big hit between the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys and into the Mid-Atlantic region. Hope we can keep these runs the they are as we have several more model runs to go through. ECMWF 12z has 8-10 inches around the DC area.

54. bwi
WPC starting to talk dirty

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1042 AM EST THU FEB 12 2015

VALID 12Z SUN FEB 15 2015 - 12Z THU FEB 19 2015

...FRIGID ARCTIC BLASTS WITH STORMY WINTER WEATHER...

...PATTERN OVERVIEW AND SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

A DANGEROUS AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NERN US/CANADIAN MARITIMES POLAR
VORTEX SUN-MON WILL USHER IN DEEP COLD AIR ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
ERN US IN THE WAKE OF A DEEP NERN US COASTAL LOW AND TRAILING
FRONT. THIS OFFERS AN AMPLE STORM THREAT FOR NEW ENGLAND IN
PARTICULAR ALONG WITH A HUGE WIND/WAVE EVENT SPREAD WELL INTO THE
WRN ATLANTIC. THIS COLD ONSET AIR ALSO SETS THE STAGE FOR A LARGE
SCALE WINTER WEATHER THREAT EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.

...

WRN NOAM FLOW AMPLIFICATION ALSO LEADS TO AN INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE/WAA RETURN FLOW PATTERN MON-WED
INTO/OVER AMBIENT AND SLOWLY RECEEDING LOWER LEVEL COLD AIR ACROSS
THE EAST-CENTRAL US DOWNSTREAM ALONG/AHEAD OF A WAVY COLD FRONT.
PENDING STREAM INTERACTION EFFECTS AND SWEATING THE IMPORTANT
SMALLER SCALE DETAILS...THIS OFFERS SOME PROLONGED HEAVIER PERIODS
OF SNOW AND DANGEROUS/TRANSITIONAL HEAVY ICING ACROSS A
POTENTIALLY LARGE THREAT AREA IN VICINITY FROM THE S-CENTRAL
PLAINS/MS VALLEY MON NEWD ACROSS THE E-CENTRAL US AND ERN/NERN US
ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE EXPANDING OVERALL PCPN SHIELD. WPC
WEATHER/PCPN TYPE GRIDS OFFER A GRAPHICAL DEPICTION AND A MORE
AMPLIFIED DAY 6/7 WPC SCENARIO LEAVES THE DOOR MORE OPEN FOR
POSSIBLE TRAILING SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENTS THAT COULD ADD
CONVERGENCE/PCPN THREAT.

SCHICHTEL
With all the bad weather in the Northeast, the sun is shining brightly across the Southeast.

After a cool morning it's warmed up nicely. I went outside during lunch and it felt great. Sunny (needed sunglasses) and just about 70 degrees.

Somebody is getting some pretty decent snow totals. Nice band has been going strong for some time.
Snow in the forecast every day for northern Indiana area.

Forecast for St. Joseph

Updated: 1:03 PM EST on February 12, 2015
Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 7 PM EST this evening...
snow

Rest of Today
Snow showers likely. Areas of blowing and drifting snow. New snow accumulation up to 2 inches...mainly across far western portions of the County. Highs 15 to 20. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. Wind chills 5 below to 5 above zero.

Tonight
Cold. Mostly cloudy. Scattered snow showers through midnight. Lows 5 to 10 above. West winds 5 to 15 mph. Chance of measurable precipitation 50 percent. Wind chills 10 below to zero.
chancesnow

Friday
Mostly cloudy. A 40 percent chance of snow in the afternoon. Highs in the lower 20s. Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph. Wind chills 5 below to 5 above zero in the morning.
» ZIP Code Detail
nt_chancesnow
Friday Night
Snow likely. Light snow accumulations possible. Not as cold. Lows 15 to 20. West winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 60 percent.
snow

Saturday
Snow showers. Areas of blowing and drifting snow. Moderate snow accumulations possible. Windy. Highs in the lower 20s. Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Wind chills 10 below to zero.

Saturday Night
Snow showers. Moderate snow accumulations possible. Lows near zero. Chance of precipitation 80 percent.
chancesnow

Sunday
Partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of snow showers in the morning. Highs 5 to 10 above.
nt_partlycloudy
Sunday Night and Washingtons Birthday
Partly cloudy. Lows near zero. Highs in the lower 20s.
nt_chancesnow
Monday Night
Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow. Lows around 15.

Tuesday
Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Highs in the mid 20s.

Tuesday Night
Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Lows 5 to 10 above.

Wednesday
Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow showers. Highs 15 to 20.
Quoting 50. Sfloridacat5:

This is something I was trying to explain earlier in the week. Just because it rains in central Florida or the Lake O watershed, there can still be areas of the state in need of water.

January Rainfall Feeds Lake Okeechobee, Leaves South Florida Dry

Link



MEDIA CONTACT:
Gabe Margasak
South Florida Water Management District
Office: (561) 682-2800 or Cellular: (561) 670-1245
www.sfwmd.gov/news
January Rainfall Feeds Lake Okeechobee, Leaves South Florida Dry
Above-average Kissimmee rainfall contributed to lake inflows
(Click on map for larger version.)
West Palm Beach, FL %u2014 January rainfall was below average across the South Florida
Water Management District (SFWMD), with a notable exception of wetter conditions in
the Kissimmee basins.
%u201CAbove-average rainfall in the Kissimmee region sustained flows into Lake Okeechobee
at a time when we would like to see the lake level falling,%u201D said Jeff Kivett, SFWMD
Division Director of Operations, Engineering and Construction. %u201CIn response, the
District continues to move water south of the lake and utilize all available storage
options.%u201D
District-wide, 1.14 inches of rain fell during the month, representing 59 percent of
average, or 0.79 inches below average.
But the Upper Kissimmee Basin, which helps feed Lake Okeechobee, received 3.20
inches of rainfall, representing 145 percent of average, or 0.99 inches above average. The
Lower Kissimmee Basin also received above-average rainfall, with 1.90 inches
representing 114 percent of average.Lake Okeechobee received only 0.96 inches of direct
rainfall, representing 57 percent of average, or 0.73
inches below average. The lake stood at 14.67 feet
NGVD today, which is 0.02 feet above its historic
average for this time of year but more than a half a
foot higher than this time last year.
The remainder of the District was dry in January,
with Palm Beach and the Southwest Coast being the
driest areas. Eastern Palm Beach received only 0.74
inches of rain, representing 25 percent of average, or
2.22 inches below average.

The Southwest Coast received only 0.52 inches of rain, representing 26 percent of
average, or 1.50 inches below average.

More information is available at:
%u2022 SFWMD Weather/Rainfall Data
%u2022 Climate Prediction Center Precipitation Forecast
%u2022 Interactive %u201CMoving Water South%u201D map: www.sfwmd.gov/movingwatersouth
# # #
About the South Florida Water Management District
The South Florida Water Management District is a regional, governmental agency that oversees the
water resources in the southern half of the state %u2013 16 counties from Orlando to the Keys. It is the
oldest and largest of the state%u2019s five water management districts. The agency mission is to manage
and protect water resources of the region by balancing and improving water quality, flood control,
natural systems and water supply. A key initiative is cleanup and restoration of the Everglades.

South Florida%u2019s Dry Season
%u2022 November %u2013 May
%u2022 About 18 inches of rain is the
average
%u2022 May and October are important
transition months
%u2022 March, April and May have the
highest evaporation rates and
lowest rainfall


“In response, the District continues to move water south of the lake and utilize all available storage options.”

What storage options?
Yikes, that is a monster pile of snow. Time to break out the Skis....
Thanks for the New Post BOB....
Quoting 55. Sfloridacat5:

With all the bad weather in the Northeast, the sun is shining brightly across the Southeast.

After a cool morning it's warmed up nicely. I went outside during lunch and it felt great. Sunny (needed sunglasses) and just about 70 degrees.




I can't take SFWMD seriously anymore, and that article just reinforces that. They are a total joke. No amount of rain is good enough for them. If it rains too much, they publish articles making it seem like Lake O is going to burst through its banks if they don’t release billions of gallons of water from it. Yet, when it rains too little, they put homes on ridiculous water restrictions with the justification that Lake O is too low. It’s like FL must receive just an exact perfect amount of rain at the right times, or else the whole system is doomed and SFWMD must act. When we had that bad drought a few years ago, the nonsense coming from SFWMD was nauseating. It just gets old; it’s almost like they have to invent water issues to justify their existence.
how do you change the username?
Quoting troppicbkirdtrtb:
how do you change the username?



You can't you have to sing up with a new name
Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 11:19 AM PST on February 12, 2015
Clear
77.5 °F
Clear
Heat Index: 77 °F
Humidity: 17%
Dew Point: 29 °F
Wind: 8.0 mph Variable
Wind Gust: 17.0 mph
Pressure: 30.10 in (Falling)

Forecast here is 82(WU)...
Quoting HaoleboySurfEC:
As usual Sar, no need to try and predict what will happen the next 7-10 days. I think it will be interesting for us, but I can't begin to guess what is actually going to happen. Let's just hope the dreaded ice doesn't make a visit.

Busted forecasts will probably be the rule. I think as a region, the Southeast is going to run the gamut from severe weather to heavy snow. Trying to pinpoint what and where greater than 24 hours out will be nearly impossible.

Ill take spring now.

Except it's not 7-10 days out. It's more like 5-6 days out, which is the range that models should start showing some consistency. They aren't of course, except for the overall pattern. For the Southeast. everything depends on how the low in the Gulf develops, how deep it is, and what path it takes. Those are the details that the major models don't agree. As usual, it will be no earlier than 24 hours before we have a good picture of what might happen. As I wrote before, the GFS was totally off on the forecast for today so I'm not buying any of this until we get a lot closer.
Quoting 62. Tazmanian:




You can't you have to sing up with a new name


However, the trend is increasingly toward a track close enough to bring heavy snow and strong winds to at least coastal New England. Here's our latest forecast timeline:

Friday: Another arctic front will spread a stripe of mainly light snow and gusty winds through the Great Lakes.

Saturday: Light to moderate snow spreads from the eastern Great Lakes into the Northeast as the arctic front advances. Snow is possible from the Appalachians and Virginia north to New York state and much of New England by afternoon (see map at left).

Saturday night: Heavy snow and increasing wind possible in New England, particularly near the coast from Maine to southeast Massachusetts. Snow and wind also farther west over the Hudson Valley, NYC metro, central/western New York, northern Pennsylvania, at least northern New Jersey.

Sunday: Heavy snow and high winds possible in much of New England. Blizzard conditions possible. Snow winds down farther west.

Sunday night: Snow may linger in Maine, Cape Cod, b
Quoting 36. LargoFl:

say thanks for this...My guess is..over time this could very well BE the cause of the next ice age..and should a massive volcanic eruption happen at the same time..oh boy..but unless something drastic happens..most of us alive today wont see it..but..now future generations just may...the history channel also says..earths climate does indeed go thru ice ages to warm periods all thru its history.


It would take more than that to instigate an ice age. It would certainly cause regional climate changes but that's a drop in the bucket compared to the overall energy balance of the planet. In order to cool the planet, it has to, on average, radiate more energy than it retains. Having northern Europe's climate change to match that of Alaska would not appreciably change the global energy budget.

Volcanic eruptions do affect global temperatures, but aside from some very rare volcanic events (the Russian Steppes eruption, for example) they're temporary. When the ash clears if the fundamental imbalance remains, then the planet will heat back up again. In order to affect long term climate, an eruption would have to be large and continuous.
Quoting troppicbkirdtrtb:
how do you change the username?
You can't. You have to sign up as a new user if you want a new name. Dumb, but that's the way it is.
Quoting 68. sar2401:

You can't. You have to sign up as a new user if you want a new name. Dumb, but that's the way it is.


Its not DUMB ..

edit .. the reasons seem obvious to me !!
Quoting LAbonbon:
The photo in Henson's post from MIT has that pile at 5 stories (!) That's pretty darn big. Do you remember the story from that massive multi-feet lake-effect storm south of Buffalo earlier this winter, where kids were playing on the snow pile and they were plowed under, a cop (I think) happened to see one of their limbs sticking out, and they were rescued? That story was vaguely horrifying, and it's stuck with me whenever I see a photo of a huge pile of snow like the one in the blog post. But I'm not sure if I've seen photos of larger snow piles than the ones on the web after that lake-effect storm.
I'm not 100% certain, but I remember reading an article about the engineering students using the snow for a project, and the mountain is a result. es, I do remember that story. snow piles are like the sand piles kids dig on the beach. Both of them are unstable and can collapse at any time. I had something like that happen to me when I was a kid. We were building snow forts in anticipation of a giant snowball fight breaking out between the Italian and Polish kids. I had cut big blocks out of the snow, which was about two feet deep. I piled them up like an igloo. When I was loading the fourth course of blocks, the whole thing caved in. Luckily, my whole body wasn't buried and my brother pulled me out. After that, I made sure my forts were wider and lower. It was pretty scary. If more had fallen on me and my brother hadn't been there I would have been in serious trouble.
Quoting whitewabit:


Its not DUMB ..

edit .. the reasons seem obvious to me !!
It is dumb. Most sites do allow you to edit your username. All the data that's attached to you remains the same. It's certainly no less dumb than allowing users with identical IP addresses to sign up for 20 different sock puppet names. Since I have been the target of a prolonged and vicious attack by one of these people I'd like to see WU work on that issue.
Quoting 70. sar2401:

I'm not 100% certain, but I remember reading an article about the engineering students using the snow for a project, and the mountain is a result. es, I do remember that story. snow piles are like the sand piles kids dig on the beach. Both of them are unstable and can collapse at any time. I had something like that happen to me when I was a kid. We were building snow forts in anticipation of a giant snowball fight breaking out between the Italian and Polish kids. I had cut big blocks out of the snow, which was about two feet deep. I piled them up like an igloo. When I was loading the fourth course of blocks, the whole thing caved in. Luckily, my whole body wasn't buried and my brother pulled me out. After that, I made sure my forts were wider and lower. It was pretty scary. If more had fallen on me and my brother hadn't been there I would have been in serious trouble.


Hopefully no kids decide to play in that snow mountain created near MIT. It just looks like an accident waiting to happen. I understand they have to put the snow somewhere, but creating one enormous mountain doesn't seem like the best idea. The fact that it occurred at MIT makes it even more mind boggling.
10-4, 62F mild here today. A solid 8F above forecast. Cold air coming tonight so we'll see what tonight and tomorrow bring. Reinforcing cold shot for Sunday. Thinking it's not going to live up to the hype.


Quoting 64. sar2401:

Except it's not 7-10 days out. It's more like 5-6 days out, which is the range that models should start showing some consistency. They aren't of course, except for the overall pattern. For the Southeast. everything depends on how the low in the Gulf develops, how deep it is, and what path it takes. Those are the details that the major models don't agree. As usual, it will be no earlier than 24 hours before we have a good picture of what might happen. As I wrote before, the GFS was totally off on the forecast for today so I'm not buying any of this until we get a lot closer.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
With all the bad weather in the Northeast, the sun is shining brightly across the Southeast.

After a cool morning it's warmed up nicely. I went outside during lunch and it felt great. Sunny (needed sunglasses) and just about 70 degrees.

Nice day here in SE Alabama as well. The skies are clear and the temperature is 65. It's breezy with NW winds and 17 mph gusts. The humidity is only 29% but the cold air advection we were supposed to get hasn't shown up. The GFS couldn't have been more wrong. I think even Florida was supposed to get to freezing this morning based on the 5 day GFS, which is one reason I don't get too excited now about these model runs.
Quoting 62. Tazmanian:




You can't you have to sing up with a new name



Some folks have done it several times!
Quoting 17. LargoFl:

I watched a show on history channel yesterday,the topic was the little Ice Age and the massive Indonesion sp? volcano explosion...and one of the major thoughts on its happening was an interruption of the gulfstream's warm waters up to say Greenland..and interruption caused by..the global warming of the period which in turn..caused a lot of glacier melt..and the cold Fresh water going into the ocean caused the gulfstream up there to cool and possibly even retreat...............today when they talk of global warming,we must keep in the back of our minds what happened some centuries ago for Europe and north America..could our present..global warming..in our near future cause..a new ice age?...just a thought
I think the massive Indonesian volcano explosion you are referring to was Mount Tambora, on the island of Sumbawa, west of Java.

Tambora was a most impressive volcano prior to its epic explosion in April of 1815, one of the most beautiful and majestic volcanic mountains on Earth. It had been dormant for the full extent of the memory of the natives of that area and so its cataclysmic eruption of that time was quite a surprise. Many other Indonesian volcanoes are and were far more active but Tambora had been silent for ages, slowly building up the massive force that would be unleashed early in the 19th century and rank as the greatest volcanic eruption of modern times.

For three years following this eruption the Earth's climate cooled significantly. The years of 1816-1817 were particularly bad in the Northern Hemisphere and 1816 is remembered as the "Year without a summer." Snows were recorded in New England in June and August of that year, frequent frosts ruined the crops over many of the growing areas of North America and in Europe the weather was chronically cold and dark with persistent rains. As a result of crop failures that year, famine became widespread in some regions.

The winter of 1816-17 went down in history as "Eighteen-hundred and froze to death!" because of its extreme cold. Nowadays it is known that all of these effects can be traced to volcanic dust that was trapped high in the atmosphere following the eruption of Tambora.

Even today, Mount Tambora is still an impressive sight, located at the tip of the Tambora peninsula where it juts out into the Java Sea in the equatorial Pacific region. But today the volcano rises only about 9000 feet above this peninsula whereas before 1815 it was an estimated 14,000 feet in height. One can only imagine what sort of surreal imagery was produced by the titanic eruption of this mountain two hundred years ago.
Quoting tampabaymatt:


Hopefully no kids decide to play in that snow mountain created near MIT. It just looks like an accident waiting to happen. I understand they have to put the snow somewhere, but creating one enormous mountain doesn't seem like the best idea. The fact that it occurred at MIT makes it even more mind boggling.
I wish I could find that story again but, as I remember it, the students actually engineered that snow pile to be stable and the site is fenced off. They had to drive skip loaders up a snow ramp to pile the snow 50 feet tall so the chances of it being a collapse hazard is pretty small.
While we are having some Meta discussion about usernames, I have been meaning to ask: Why do some users' content come up as hidden all the time? Two users are this way for me - hurricanes2018 and whitewabit. I have to click on the "see" button to see their content. Interestingly, it seems as if hurricanes only posts useful weather information ant whitewabit is a Mod. My filter is on "show average".
Quoting 78. SouthTampa:

While we are having some Meta discussion about usernames, I have been meaning to ask: Why do some users' content come up as hidden all the time? Two users are this way for me - hurricanes2018 and whitewabit. I have to click on the "see" button to see their content. Interestingly, it seems as if hurricanes only posts useful weather information ant whitewabit is a Mod. My filter is on "show average".


Same thing happens to me with the same users. That's strange. I thought it was unique to me.
Quoting 78. SouthTampa:

While we are having some Meta discussion about usernames, I have been meaning to ask: Why do some users' content come up as hidden all the time? Two users are this way for me - hurricanes2018 and whitewabit. I have to click on the "see" button to see their content. Interestingly, it seems as if hurricanes only posts useful weather information ant whitewabit is a Mod. My filter is on "show average".

Mine is set to 'see all', so I see everybody.
Quoting 80. LAbonbon:


Mine is set to 'see all', so I see everybody.
Thanks... I wonder why those two would be below average...
Went from 50 to 34 and snowing in an hour... sigh down to 15 tonight gonna get real messy, but not the fun kind
Doom, small "d".

NWS New Orleans/Slidell Disco

One thing that is very evident in models at middle week next
week...is that a significant cold air dump is expected. Colder
than we have seen since early January from the looks of things.
Presents a couple of forecast questions. First...will
precipitation move out before coldest air arrives. Current
forecast is predicated on precipitation departing before deepest
cold air arrives. Will not mention snow flurries early Wednesday
as moisture moves out...but would not be shocked to see a few
reports from within the local area. Any moisture should be out of
the area around midday Wednesday.

The roller coaster ride continues with forecast temperatures.
Sunday and Monday mornings do not look quite as chilly as they did
earlier in the week. High temperatures will still struggle to get
much past 60. Monday a little milder...but if clouds move in too
early...GFS temperature solution would be better than European model (ecmwf).
Trending warm for now. Tuesday highs likely to be during the first
half of the day with falling temperatures later. Wednesday and
Thursday will see temperatures much below normal...about 20
degrees below normal. In fact...Wednesday may see temperatures
stay steady or fall for much of the day. If model guidance is in
the ballpark...freeze/hard freeze warnings will likely be
necessary on Thursday morning of next week. Some concern that high
temperature guidance may be negatively biased by climatology a bit
next Thursday...warming things a little too quick. 35
Quoting SouthTampa:
While we are having some Meta discussion about usernames, I have been meaning to ask: Why do some users' content come up as hidden all the time? Two users are this way for me - hurricanes2018 and whitewabit. I have to click on the "see" button to see their content. Interestingly, it seems as if hurricanes only posts useful weather information ant whitewabit is a Mod. My filter is on "show average".
If you have your filter set to "average" you're only going to see posts from users with neutral or average posts in terms of the number of likes and dislikes. Those two users apparently get more dislikes than likes.
Quoting 76. FLWaterFront:

I think the massive Indonesian volcano explosion you are referring to was Mount Tambora, on the island of Sumbawa, west of Java.

Tambora was a most impressive volcano prior to its epic explosion in April of 1815, one of the most beautiful and majestic volcanic mountains on Earth. It had been dormant for the full extent of the memory of the natives of that area and so its cataclysmic eruption of that time was quite a surprise. Many other Indonesian volcanoes are and were far more active but Tambora had been silent for ages, slowly building up the massive force that would be unleashed early in the 19th century and rank as the greatest volcanic eruption of modern times.

For three years following this eruption the Earth's climate cooled significantly. The years of 1816-1817 were particularly bad in the Northern Hemisphere and 1816 is remembered as the "Year without a summer." Snows were recorded in New England in June and August of that year, frequent frosts ruined the crops over many of the growing areas of North America and in Europe the weather was chronically cold and dark with persistent rains. As a result of crop failures that year, famine became widespread in some regions.

The winter of 1816-17 went down in history as "Eighteen-hundred and froze to death!" because of its extreme cold. Nowadays it is known that all of these effects can be traced to volcanic dust that was trapped high in the atmosphere following the eruption of Tambora.

Even today, Mount Tambora is still an impressive sight, located at the tip of the Tambora peninsula where it juts out into the Java Sea in the equatorial Pacific region. But today the volcano rises only about 9000 feet above this peninsula whereas before 1815 it was an estimated 14,000 feet in height. One can only imagine what sort of surreal imagery was produced by the titanic eruption of this mountain two hundred years ago.
yeah one scientist said that volcano explosion would make mt st.helens seem like a firecracker...wow
ECMWF EPS 12z members look good for early next week with many members clustered over South and North Carolina and east of New Jersey as the low slides out. Good trends for the Mid-Atlantic.

"Atmospheric Struggles to Avoid Snowing in Massachusetts"

Great blog title today, Bob. :^)
Quoting tampabaymatt:
Now we're getting somewhere. I went from a quarter inch to an inch since the last update. I'll probably go back to a quarter inch on the next update.
The Human CO2 Volcano runs 24/7/365 continuously as we have been terra forming a new Climate for over 170 years.

We have created a whole new Epoch.

The Anthropocene.


Quoting 43. LargoFl:

I wonder..if say in 100 years or so..another ice age begins...add to this..no more oil...just think..of food stuffs and heat and transportation etc...in the little ice age..millions died of starvation,cold and disease...but today we have possibly 6 billion people...most live in high rise cities so dependent on oil etc...wow, don't even want to think about it in my lifetime...perhaps billions perish.
Why no more oil, there is enough oil to last a few lifetimes if not longer. If we do get another Ice Age at least it will stop the climate change debate.
Quoting 42. ScottLincoln:



The are probably referring to Model Output Statistics or MOS guidance which is typically used by forecasters. There tend to be biases in the weather models for a given location, but these biases can be accounted for at locations where long periods of observations are available.

For example, let's say location A frequently ends up colder for nighttime lows in February when the GFS model forecasts lows of 30-40F. For that range of forecasts, the model may be too high by 4F, on average. Forecasters looking at the GFS would then see a forecast of 36F in the GFS become a forecast of 32F in the GFS MOS. This is a very generalized example.

So when they are saying that there are issues with climatology making the guidance seem too warm, it is probably that we are nearing the latter half of winter and, many times in past, we have seen arctic outbreaks in the models show up colder on average than what actually occurs. MOS just adjusts the model output based upon the average of past errors, meaning that by definition it will not help a forecaster recognize an extreme event nor help a forecaster recognize an event that is atypical for the season.

Thanks, Scott, for the explanation and the link.
Quoting 82. tampabaymatt:


Picked up 1.12" on Monday. My forecast verified to a tee this past Monday. Just got back from Cozumel today.

Sub surface warm pool continues to grow.

Quoting 93. StormTrackerScott:



Picked up 1.12" on Monday. My forecast verified to a tee this past Monday. Just got back from Cozumel today.




haha, welcome back Scott. The place wasn't the same without you.
Quoting 93. StormTrackerScott:



Picked up 1.12" on Monday. My forecast verified to a tee this past Monday. Just got back from Cozumel today.





Welcome back Scott!
I moved to Boston from North Carolina in April. This snow is absolutely insane. it's higher than shoulder height on either side of my driveway and if we get another 2 feet in the next week, then I don't know where it's going to go. I've seen big dump trucks full of snow driving around so they must have already run out of room in some areas. The plows have erected a ten foot pile of snow in my yard. Today when I dropped my daughter off at elementary school they had a snow blower going on the roof... That was a bit unnerving. I hear some towns in the metro area are already out of salt. I got 29" from Linus and another 25" from Marcus. I don't think we've broken above freezing in weeks so very little has melted. There have also been plenty of other smaller snows, but I barely pay attention to them now. My wife is a nurse and she has to be at work no matter what. Some of the nurses have been catching rides from fire departments and police officers and sleeping in cots at the hospital. My wife said that several people skied to work one day. So far she's only had to spend one night at the hospital, but it might happen again Saturday night. Crazy weather.
LOL. Ask and you shall recieve.
Quoting 44. Xulonn:

Scientists expect AGW/CC to delay the next ice age - atmospheric CO2 would need to drop below 240ppm. Current and rising CO2 levels are high enough to prevent another ice age until that level drops drastically - and right now it's going up drastically.


Quoting 93. StormTrackerScott:



Picked up 1.12" on Monday. My forecast verified to a tee this past Monday. Just got back from Cozumel today.




I'm up to 4.65" for the year at my location. The Tampa reporting station is at 4.55". It's odd that our totals are so close, because that never happens, even though I'm only 7 miles from the aiport as the crow flies.
Saw a few flurries flying around lunchtime....But i am so excited at what seems our 1st good chance to maybe pick up accumulations of snow here in NW Georgia early next week-mid week. Models are bullish towards our finally getting the right ingredients present.

Calhoun,Ga(where i live)which is about 50 miles south of Chattanooga,Tn has only seen a few days where flurries have fallen. So we will see where the low sets up and moves and which side we will be on.....and whether the moisture will be available with the cold.... Monday seems to be a good shot, but a lot of times it is too dry 1st and the models fail to pick that up and time it moistens up the temp goes above freezing and we get rain.... Tuesday night and Wesnesday we will see if the cold gets in fast enough behind the low as it moves up and along.
Quoting 87. Drakoen:

ECMWF EPS 12z members look good for early next week with many members clustered over South and North Carolina and east of New Jersey as the low slides out. Good trends for the Mid-Atlantic.



WU has updated it's forcast for my area. Shows 5-8 inches of snow on Tuesday and 1-3 on Wednesday. It's still a ways out, however. I may have been kind of quick to jump the gun on this one being a bust a few days ago.
Quoting 81. SouthTampa:

Thanks... I wonder why those two would be below average...

Don't really know. whitewabit is a mod, so maybe when he's 'disciplining' the class he doesn't get the thumbs up? And hurricanes2018 posts a lot of NE graphics for snow, and maybe some folks just aren't interested. (*shrugs*)

Don't know, and really, if you set it to 'see all' you'll catch everybody's comments, and won't miss out on the 'flow' of blog conversations. That's just the way I do it, though.

Here we go again….

ZONE FORECASTS FOR NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
320 PM EST THU FEB 12 2015

MEZ024-131030-
COASTAL CUMBERLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PORTLAND...SOUTH PORTLAND...WESTBROOK
320 PM EST THU FEB 12 2015

...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING…

.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN
CLOUDY WITH SNOW LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE. HIGHS AROUND 16. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING
SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOW. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW
MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. ADDITIONAL HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION. WINDY AND
NOT AS COLD WITH LOWS AROUND 11. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH...
INCREASING TO NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW
AS 11 BELOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.SUNDAY...SNOW. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. VERY WINDY
WITH HIGHS 15 TO 20. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT.
Got .87" on Monday. I forecasted .86" so my forecast was as bust. Lost again.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
320 PM EST THU FEB 12 2015

MEZ024-131030-
COASTAL CUMBERLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PORTLAND...SOUTH PORTLAND...WESTBROOK
320 PM EST THU FEB 12 2015

...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING…

.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN
CLOUDY WITH SNOW LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE. HIGHS AROUND 16. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING
SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOW. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW
MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. ADDITIONAL HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION. WINDY AND
NOT AS COLD WITH LOWS AROUND 11. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH...
INCREASING TO NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT. WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW
AS 11 BELOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.SUNDAY...SNOW. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. VERY WINDY
WITH HIGHS 15 TO 20. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT.


here we go again BLIZZARD two is coming by the weekend
Quoting 98. Drakoen:

LOL. Ask and you shall recieve.
.
Quoting 107. Climate175:

Did you pray?


I'm not talking about snow.
Quoting 93. StormTrackerScott:



Picked up 1.12" on Monday. My forecast verified to a tee this past Monday. Just got back from Cozumel today.



Hi, Scott - how was Cozumel?
Quoting 108. Drakoen:



I'm not talking about snow.
Good because I was about to say not getting hopes up.
Blizzard Watch
Statement as of 3:57 PM EST on February 12, 2015

...Blizzard watch in effect from Saturday evening through Sunday
evening...


The National Weather Service in gray has issued a blizzard
watch...which is in effect from Saturday evening through Sunday
evening.


* Hazard types...heavy snow... blowing snow... and blizzard
conditions.


* Accumulations...snow accumulation of 12 to 16 inches.


* Timing...snow begins Saturday afternoon and becomes heavy by
Sunday morning. Winds will increase by Sunday morning causing
widespread blowing snow. Snow comes to an end during the day
Sunday.


* Impacts...the combination of heavy snow and blowing snow will
lead to whiteout conditions at times. This will make driving
extremely dangerous if not impossible.


* Winds...north 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.


* Temperatures...in the single digits and teens.


Precautionary/preparedness actions...


A blizzard watch means there is a potential for falling and/or
blowing snow with strong winds and extremely poor visibilities.
This can lead to whiteout conditions and make travel very
dangerous.
Quoting 100. tampabaymatt:


I'm up to 4.65" for the year at my location. The Tampa reporting station is at 4.55". It's odd that our totals are so close, because that never happens, even though I'm only 7 miles from the aiport as the crow flies.


Orlando International is near 6" for the year, I'm lower at 5.15" still though these are hefty totals for being 6 weeks into the new year. More rain next Tuesday/Wednesday. Could be another .50 to 1" of rain on the way.

Quoting 109. LAbonbon:

Hi, Scott - how was Cozumel?


80 to 82 with mid to upper 60's at night. Very nice.
Take it all in. It may be a once-in-a-lifetime winter for Boston.

It will end I promise.

Quoting 97. MAstu:

I moved to Boston from North Carolina in April. This snow is absolutely insane. it's higher than shoulder height on either side of my driveway and if we get another 2 feet in the next week, then I don't know where it's going to go. I've seen big dump trucks full of snow driving around so they must have already run out of room in some areas. The plows have erected a ten foot pile of snow in my yard. Today when I dropped my daughter off at elementary school they had a snow blower going on the roof... That was a bit unnerving. I hear some towns in the metro area are already out of salt. I got 29" from Linus and another 25" from Marcus. I don't think we've broken above freezing in weeks so very little has melted. There have also been plenty of other smaller snows, but I barely pay attention to them now. My wife is a nurse and she has to be at work no matter what. Some of the nurses have been catching rides from fire departments and police officers and sleeping in cots at the hospital. My wife said that several people skied to work one day. So far she's only had to spend one night at the hospital, but it might happen again Saturday night. Crazy weather.


Tampa Bay area - apparently the sun won't rise on Tuesday.


here we go watches are up!
Quoting 72. tampabaymatt:


I understand they have to put the snow somewhere, but creating one enormous mountain doesn't seem like the best idea. The fact that it occurred at MIT makes it even more mind boggling.

That's pretty common in the northern states. It's pretty much a necessity for it to be put into piles. It's a common sight in large parking lots. It gets pushed, row by row, to the ends, then usually pushed from there into a few bigger piles. Where else is it going to go?
Quoting 87. Drakoen:

ECMWF EPS 12z members look good for early next week with many members clustered over South and North Carolina and east of New Jersey as the low slides out. Good trends for the Mid-Atlantic.



Models have been trending southward over the past day or so with the polar vortex dipping more south as of late. It wouldn't surprise me if the low(s) shifted farther south over the coming runs, putting more of the Southeast at play for wintry weather.
Quoting 117. ScottLincoln:


That's pretty common in the northern states. It's pretty much a necessity for it to be put into piles. It's a common sight in large parking lots. It gets pushed, row by row, to the ends, then usually pushed from there into a few bigger piles. Where else is it going to go?


It was more of a stream of consciousness comment than anything. I'm a lifelong Floridian, so I'm not an expert on snowfall management. But, I forgot you are an expert on everything and love to point that out to everyone.
Quoting 115. tampabaymatt:



Tampa Bay area - apparently the sun won't rise on Tuesday.
Well that should end the Climate Change debate.
Quoting 119. tampabaymatt:


It was more of a stream of consciousness comment than anything. I'm a lifelong Floridian, so I'm not an expert on snowfall management.

Yes, the piles can be dangerous sometimes. But often there just isn't any other alternative, especially in very snowy years. Just trying to stir some thought about that for someone who admittedly is from a state that doesn't experience it.
Quoting 119. tampabaymatt:

But, I forgot you are an expert on everything and love to point that out to everyone.

Certainly untrue, and don't be led to believe that about anyone.
Quoting tampabaymatt:


It was more of a stream of consciousness comment than anything. I'm a lifelong Floridian, so I'm not an expert on snowfall management. But, I forgot you are an expert on everything and love to point that out to everyone.


You didn't know that he and his pals are experts on everthing?
Quoting 112. StormTrackerScott:



Orlando International is near 6" for the year, I'm lower at 5.15" still though these are hefty totals for being 6 weeks into the new year. More rain next Tuesday/Wednesday. Could be another .50 to 1" of rain on the way.




Yeah my parents house in Pinellas is at 5.73 for the year so far, a February precip total over 3.13 already, next weeks front looks to be a solid rain maker as well.
Quoting 113. StormTrackerScott:



80 to 82 with mid to upper 60's at night. Very nice.


Welcome back!

my dog loves the snow
Breaking News Winter Storm Neptune has been named.
Worst Megadroughts in 1,000 Years Threaten US
by Becky Oskin, Senior Writer | February 12, 2015 02:00pm ET

Link
Quoting 86. LargoFl:

yeah one scientist said that volcano explosion would make mt st.helens seem like a firecracker...wow
But that one was nothing compared to Yellowstone several hundred thousand years ago -- ash hundreds of feet thick from Wyoming almost to the Mississippi River. And that one was almost nothing compared to the Siberian and Indian and African lava outpourings that lasted hundreds of years and spewed a lot more CO2 that humans are now, warming the planet substantially for thousands of years. Yet here we are!
Quoting 89. sar2401:

Now we're getting somewhere. I went from a quarter inch to an inch since the last update. I'll probably go back to a quarter inch on the next update.


Don't verify a forecast with another forecast.


Breaking my above stated rule (it's actually from either Louis Ucellini or Joel Meyers.. don't remember whom), regrogression of the mean trough axis to the Ohio or Mississippi Valley will make a huge difference in how "interesting" Mid Atlantic and Southeast weather is next week or for the duration of its presence there.
Quoting 127. Andrebrooks:

Breaking News Winter Storm Neptune has been named.
Breaking news?
Quoting 124. Jedkins01:



Yeah my parents house in Pinellas is at 5.73 for the year so far, a February precip total over 3.13 already, next weeks front looks to be a solid rain maker as well.


Where do you see that? As usual, the GFS shows virtually no rain for FL through 240 hours.
Quoting 77. sar2401:

I wish I could find that story again but, as I remember it, the students actually engineered that snow pile to be stable and the site is fenced off. They had to drive skip loaders up a snow ramp to pile the snow 50 feet tall so the chances of it being a collapse hazard is pretty small.


Actually the challenge to pose to these students is to build a snow pile that will survive the summer.


light snow in east haven right now!!
poll time!!!
Will Boston pass 100 inches on Sunday? (currently at 79.0)
yes
no
with 2 inches tonight I think Boston will get 20ish inches Sat-Sun but I think it will come in just under 100. but pass it Tues. and on Wednesday break the snowiest season ever record.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah my parents house in Pinellas is at 5.73 for the year so far, a February precip total over 3.13 already, next weeks front looks to be a solid rain maker as well.


6" is normal year to date precipitation for central Florida.
Some areas of central Florida have seen a lot more than 6" since Jan.1.
Quoting 129. CaneFreeCR:

But that one was nothing compared to Yellowstone several hundred thousand years ago -- ash hundreds of feet thick from Wyoming almost to the Mississippi River. And that one was almost nothing compared to the Siberian and Indian and African lava outpourings that lasted hundreds of years and spewed a lot more CO2 that humans are now, warming the planet substantially for thousands of years. Yet here we are!
mother Earth sure can pack a punch huh...geez.
Quoting 136. Sfloridacat5:



6" is normal year to date precipitation for central Florida.
Some areas of central Florida have seen a lot more than 6" since Jan.1.


Are you sure that's not assuming full months of Jan and Feb? Our numbers are only through today. I find it hard to believe 6 inches of rain is average for C FL for 1/1 through 2/11.
Quoting Gearsts:
Breaking news?
Yep, this storm will be bad, what do you think.
Quoting tampabaymatt:


Are you sure that's not assuming full months of Jan and Feb? Our numbers are only through today. I find it hard to believe 6 inches of rain is average for C FL for 1/1 through 2/11.


Orlando International Airport
January 2.35"
Feb. .99"
3.34 normal YTD.

Why didn't some tell me I was including December before?lol
the great blizzard of 1899.......................On February 12, snow started falling from Fort Myers and Tampa in Florida west towards New Orleans. Blizzard conditions were reported north of Tampa along the west coast of Florida due to ocean-effect snow. The storm crossed the Florida peninsula and intensified as it rapidly moved up the Eastern United States.
Quoting 118. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Models have been trending southward over the past day or so with the polar vortex dipping more south as of late. It wouldn't surprise me if the low(s) shifted farther south over the coming runs, putting more of the Southeast at play for wintry weather.


True. The GFS 12z run almost looked like a triple phase. I think at some point these southward shifts will halt as we have seen this winter.
Quoting 132. tampabaymatt:



Where do you see that? As usual, the GFS shows virtually no rain for FL through 240 hours.


Well the GFS has had dry bias issues for a while over Florida for whatever reason, sometimes it has a hard time transitioning rainfall from ocean to land I've noticed , the last system it had only 0.25 QPF max over Central Florida. Total rainfall was 0.50 min to over 2.0 inches max with an average of 0.75-1.20.

The last system before that, All of Central Florida had at least 1 inch with some areas getting more than 2 inches, the GFS had only 0.25-0.50 QPF.

I'm not sure why it has, usually the GFS overdoes QPF with events this time of year, this time it has been the other way around.

With both cases the last two times, the GFS parameters all supported good soaking rain events, and that's what happened, if you remember me talking about that. For some reason the model couldn't generate the precip to match it's other parameters. In other words, there was no good reason why the rainfall forecast was that low from the model.

With that said I don't think next week's system will be a major soaker or anything, at least that's not what the models suggest yet. But it should at least bring a good chance of rain, not sure how much yet though.
Jersey looks like it's gonna take a snow beating come Tuesday per the GFS
Southern New Haven Severe Watches & Warnings NOAA Weather Radio
Special Statement
Statement as of 4:00 PM EST on February 12, 2015

Scattered snow showers will continue to move across the area
through 6 PM. Any heavier snow showers should be brief...but
could result in up to an inch of snow accumulation. Visibilities
will be reduced as well. Please exercise caution when traveling as
roads could become slippery very quickly.
Quoting 138. tampabaymatt:



Are you sure that's not assuming full months of Jan and Feb? Our numbers are only through today. I find it hard to believe 6 inches of rain is average for C FL for 1/1 through 2/11.


It's just sometimes people portray the dry season as being even drier than it is. Remember that climate is always relative to normal. For some climates, Florida's average dry season monthly precip is normal wet conditions and wouldn't be considered a dry season at all, for dry climates it would be considered a rainy season like New Mexico, AZ, or southern CA.


Quoting 126. hurricanes2018:


my dog loves the snow


Poor dog, looks cold and malnourished

storm one!!



storm two!!
Man those people could use a break from snow

I went back and corrected my post.
I included December in 2015. I must have forgotten that December isn't in 2015.

Quoting 140. Sfloridacat5:Orlando International Airport
January 2.35"
Feb. .99"
3.34 normal YTD.

Why didn't some tell me I was including December before?lol



Rainfall has been off to a solid start so far this year in Tallahassee, 5.14 for January, and 2.71 so far for February, so we're at 7.85 year to date in my gauge.

If you include the rain event where there was flash flooding in Tallahassee and the largest December rain event on record on the 23rd into Christmas Eve where 9.84 fell in my gauge in just those 2 days and a similar total at the official station, we've had a whopping 17.69 over the last 7 weeks, lol.
Quoting 149. hurricanes2018:



Its sort of a bit deceptive showing some inches of snow as accumalated, when there must be in the area of the map an awful lot of snow on the ground already.
As it seems that the temps have been below freezing for weeks now in much of the charts area then some of the accumalted snows must be very deep already, as non will have melted due to above freezing temps.
When do you think TWC will name Olaf?
A Friday
B Saturday
C Sunday
D Monday

I think wither C or D.
Quoting 128. Grothar:

Worst Megadroughts in 1,000 Years Threaten US
by Becky Oskin, Senior Writer | February 12, 2015 02:00pm ET

Link


This is a really good article, thanks for posting it.
Quoting 154. PlazaRed:


Its sort of a bit deceptive showing some inches of snow as accumalated, when there must be in the area of the map an awful lot of snow on the ground already.
As it seems that the temps have been below freezing for weeks now in much of the charts area then some of the accumalted snows must be very deep already, as non will have melted due to above freezing temps.

PlazaRed - I believe that's showing potential new snow for the systems that are expected over the next week. Some of these areas have a lot more snow than this on the ground. See Fig 3 of Mr. Henson's blog (above).
I am hoping the next mysterious "cycle" that cannot be measured or identified, brings about the next "greenhouse" or "hothouse" earth period like most of earth's 4.5 billion year history. It is getting to the point where all this snow is becoming a larger and larger hazard to people's safety. Of course I say this tongue in cheek because next year when there is an ice storm I will wanting it to snow. Reading the blog today I can't help but get irritated every time I read the word "cycle" in regards to Earth's climate without the naming and explanation of said "cycle". I want to know what these mysterious "cycles" are and how they work. When will the next snowball earth or hot-house occur? That must be a "cycle" right? And what causes it?
I am sorry for being so bitter and cranky. I hope those who are scared to pull out of their driveway because the snowbanks obscure view and people drive way to fast on an icy road can empathize with my cynicism on the blog comments section. I have just heard the "cycle" word way too many times without specific identifacation while I look at previous climactic conditions being a result of so many factors the likelyhood of those conditions repeating themselves are astronomical. The particular dynamics will never be the same.

In summary:
hate the over used term "cycle"
snow removal and consequences make me cranky
The 18z GFS to me shows what could be a fairly significant freezing precipitation event for Atlanta on Monday. Starts as frozen precipitation, turns to rain, and then ends as frozen precipitation. I think cold air damming could keep surface temperatures low enough to make an icy mess out of this system.
161. beell
An updated discussion to add to this morning's brief post.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1042 AM EST THU FEB 12 2015

VALID 12Z SUN FEB 15 2015 - 12Z THU FEB 19 2015

WRN NOAM FLOW AMPLIFICATION ALSO LEADS TO AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE/WAA RETURN FLOW PATTERN MON-WED INTO/OVER AMBIENT AND SLOWLY RECEEDING LOWER LEVEL COLD AIR ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL US DOWNSTREAM ALONG/AHEAD OF A WAVY COLD FRONT. PENDING STREAM INTERACTION EFFECTS AND SWEATING THE IMPORTANT SMALLER SCALE DETAILS...THIS OFFERS SOME PROLONGED HEAVIER PERIODS OF SNOW AND DANGEROUS/TRANSITIONAL HEAVY ICING ACROSS A POTENTIALLY LARGE THREAT AREA IN VICINITY FROM THE S-CENTRAL PLAINS/MS VALLEY MON NEWD ACROSS THE E-CENTRAL US AND ERN/NERN US ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE EXPANDING OVERALL PCPN SHIELD. WPC WEATHER/PCPN TYPE GRIDS OFFER A GRAPHICAL DEPICTION AND A MORE AMPLIFIED DAY 6/7 WPC SCENARIO LEAVES THE DOOR MORE OPEN FOR POSSIBLE TRAILING SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENTS THAT COULD ADD CONVERGENCE/PCPN THREAT.

SCHICHTEL

140. beell
11:56 AM GMT on February 12, 2015

This event(s) may be an over-performer for the Ohio River Valley as a 30-50 knot LLJ upglides over the top of the cold surface air. Perhaps the potential for freezing rain is not well-captured either.
If you're tired of the New England Snow story...

Quoting 154. PlazaRed:


Its sort of a bit deceptive showing some inches of snow as accumalated, when there must be in the area of the map an awful lot of snow on the ground already.
As it seems that the temps have been below freezing for weeks now in much of the charts area then some of the accumalted snows must be very deep already, as non will have melted due to above freezing temps.
also 18 inches at 10-1 would end up being over 2 ft in the real world, because temps in the low 20s upper teens, probably 26-28 inches.
Quoting 162. Methurricanes:

also 18 inches at 10-1 would end up being over 2 ft in the real world, because temps in the low 20s upper teens, probably 26-28 inches.

Thanks for youe notes LAbonbon and Methurricanes, I have to go to Albany in New York stae next week and I have been keeping an eye on the situation there.
It seems that the temps have been below freezing for many weeks now in the inland areas to the south and east of the Great Lakes.
Is there any other thing to talk about besides New England.
Quoting LargoFl:
the great blizzard of 1899.......................On February 12, snow started falling from Fort Myers and Tampa in Florida west towards New Orleans. Blizzard conditions were reported north of Tampa along the west coast of Florida due to ocean-effect snow. The storm crossed the Florida peninsula and intensified as it rapidly moved up the Eastern United States.
I don't know where the person who wrote the Wikipedia article got their information but some of it's wrong. Snow fell in Florida February 12 and February 13. It seems as if the writer was confounding it all into one event. I don't know where "north of Tampa" is supposed to be but Pensacola got somewhere between 2.0" and 3.0", which was the greatest recorded, except for two inland station east of Jacksonville that got about 3.0". Tampa itself reported 0.1". No official station in Florida, Alabama, or Georgia recorded blizzard conditions, although there may have been near blizzard conditions in the area from Pensacola to Lake City. Almost all the reports from the storms came from cooperative observers who weren't well trained in 1899. Many of them had never seen snow, let alone a blizzard, and some of the narrative reports were a little "enthusiastic". What was notable in Florida and the Southeast was the prolonged period of extreme cold. It wasn't until the Arctic outbreak of 1985 that Florida got colder temperatures. It's too bad we can't go back and see the SST's then. Ships off the east coast of Georgia and South Carolina were reporting temperatures of 68 to 73 degrees while land areas were reporting below freezing temperatures. You can read the very interesting NWS report here.
Quoting 164. washingtonian115:

Is there any other thing to talk about besides New England.

Sure, Washi...there's a bizzard warning issued for the UP of Michigan :P

And the weather down here was really nice today :)
Fun Fact: Boston is tied for the snowiest February ever at 41.6, with only 16 days to go, and at least 1 blizzard. most likely over 60 inches for the month.
Quoting beell:
An updated discussion to add to this morning's brief post.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1042 AM EST THU FEB 12 2015

VALID 12Z SUN FEB 15 2015 - 12Z THU FEB 19 2015

WRN NOAM FLOW AMPLIFICATION ALSO LEADS TO AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE/WAA RETURN FLOW PATTERN MON-WED INTO/OVER AMBIENT AND SLOWLY RECEEDING LOWER LEVEL COLD AIR ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL US DOWNSTREAM ALONG/AHEAD OF A WAVY COLD FRONT. PENDING STREAM INTERACTION EFFECTS AND SWEATING THE IMPORTANT SMALLER SCALE DETAILS...THIS OFFERS SOME PROLONGED HEAVIER PERIODS OF SNOW AND DANGEROUS/TRANSITIONAL HEAVY ICING ACROSS A POTENTIALLY LARGE THREAT AREA IN VICINITY FROM THE S-CENTRAL PLAINS/MS VALLEY MON NEWD ACROSS THE E-CENTRAL US AND ERN/NERN US ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE EXPANDING OVERALL PCPN SHIELD. WPC WEATHER/PCPN TYPE GRIDS OFFER A GRAPHICAL DEPICTION AND A MORE AMPLIFIED DAY 6/7 WPC SCENARIO LEAVES THE DOOR MORE OPEN FOR POSSIBLE TRAILING SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPMENTS THAT COULD ADD CONVERGENCE/PCPN THREAT.

SCHICHTEL

140. beell
11:56 AM GMT on February 12, 2015

This event(s) may be an over-performer for the Ohio River Valley as a 30-50 knot LLJ upglides over the top of the cold surface air. Perhaps the potential for freezing rain is not well-captured either.
If you're tired of the New England Snow story...

What's your take on the chances for severe thunderstorms down here Tuesday? If the low develops as forecast, the return flow should be pretty vigorous, and the set up looks typical for severe storms. It doesn't look like the chances for snow are too high this far south but so much is dependent on exactly where the low is in relation to the cold air that I don't think anyone will really know the answer to that until just before we get a changeover, if it occurs.
Quoting LAbonbon:

Sure, Washi...there's a bizzard warning issued for the UP of Michigan :P

And the weather down here was really nice today :)
It was nice here too. :-) Had a high of 65 and had to open up the greenhouse after it got to 90. We've had gusty north winds all day and the humidity bottomed out at 26%. My nose is wrecked. The cooler air is starting to finally move in but it's still 50, which is higher than the predicted high five days ago. The dewpoint, however, is 21, which may give a clue to how cold it gets tomorrow morning.



Quoting 147. Jedkins01:



It's just sometimes people portray the dry season as being even drier than it is. Remember that climate is always relative to normal. For some climates, Florida's average dry season monthly precip is normal wet conditions and wouldn't be considered a dry season at all, for dry climates it would be considered a rainy season like New Mexico, AZ, or southern CA.





According to the NWS, average rainfall for Tampa in January is 2.23". Also according to the NWS, average rainfall for February 1 thru 11th in Tampa is 1.12". That totals 3.35", which is far from 6 inches. I'm not sure what you guys are looking at, but please correct me if I'm missing something.
Quoting 163. PlazaRed:


Thanks for youe notes LAbonbon and Methurricanes, I have to go to Albany in New York stae next week and I have been keeping an eye on the situation there.
It seems that the temps have been below freezing for many weeks now in the inland areas to the south and east of the Great Lakes.

Just looked at the Albany forecast. After today it gets quite cold, looks like it warms up some after Monday...but still not above freezing. You're going to have to bundle up!
Quoting 166. LAbonbon:


Sure, Washi...there's a bizzard warning issued for the UP of Michigan :P

And the weather down here was really nice today :)
It was pretty blustery this afternoon and even continuing into this evening.Some light snow showers earlier but nothing we haven't seen this winter.I really want to go on the wharf again and look out on the water while having lunch with a co-worker or friend.
BTW I vote #MBTApocalypse best hashtag of the new year.
Quoting 172. washingtonian115:

It was pretty blustery this afternoon and even continuing into this evening.Some light snow showers earlier but nothing we haven't seen this winter.I really want to go on the wharf again and look out on the water while having lunch with a co-worker or friend.

Spring will be here before you know it. And all the snow up north will melt, leaving in its wake memories and stories that will be repeated to future generations for decades to come...

D.C. is beautiful in the spring (as I'm sure you are well aware). One year I went there, planned ahead hoping to catch the cherry blossoms, but no luck. But I was pleasantly surprised by all the blooming perennials all around the Mall area. There were tons of them! Just gorgeous, and unexpected...sort of made up for not catching the cherry blossoms (which I still haven't seen).
Quoting 174. LAbonbon:


Spring will be here before you know it. And all the snow up north will melt, leaving in its wake memories and stories that will be repeated to future generations for decades to come...

D.C. is beautiful in the spring (as I'm sure you are well aware). One year I went there, planned ahead hoping to catch the cherry blossoms, but no luck. But I was pleasantly surprised by all the blooming perennials all around the Mall area. There were tons of them! Just gorgeous, and unexpected...sort of made up for not catching the cherry blossoms (which I still haven't seen).
I have a cherry blossom tree in my yard and there are tons of other species in and around D.C so there really is no rush for locals to go down there.Its manly the people out of town that go down there and get bamboozled by the high food stand prices ;).
Forecast for Boston is lengthy and serious...Link
Quoting 170. tampabaymatt:



According to the NWS, average rainfall for Tampa in January is 2.23". Also according to the NWS, average rainfall for February 1 thru 11th in Tampa is 1.12". That totals 3.35", which is far from 6 inches. I'm not sure what you guys are looking at, but please correct me if I'm missing something.


I admittedly misread your statement as well, I thought you said January through all of February total, which in this case, 6 inches would be near enough to the average if you include the full two months. Tampa would be 5.04 for the average through both months which is close enough to 6 for that to be considered "typical".
Truthfully though, Tampa is a bit of a strange anomaly in Central Florida, it averages notably less rain per average climate year, by about 8-12 inches, than other sites in the Tampa Bay area, not just per year but about every month from what I can see.
Because of that, Tampa International is a slight dry bias compared to all other sites and so I don't think it's a good analog to use for average rainfall. I would take a station that is in the middle or an average of all of them to to get a better bet.
The average Jan-Feb at St. Petersburg is 5.96, Bradenton 5.38, Plant City 5.44 which gives an average of 5.59, close to 6.

It has always been strange to me though that Tampa has a strangely low precip average. As far as I know, it's the only official observation that averages less than 50 inches per year in Florida aside from the Keys at 46.30, while other stations in the same county average from 53 to 58 inches, and the same goes for Pinellas. In fact St. Petersburg averages 54.70 and Clearwater about 56, and Bradenton is 56 and all 3 Tampa Bay sites are only just across the bay only several miles from Tampa International airport.

I guarantee if Tampa International airport was in any other part of Tampa it would have a noticeably higher rainfall average, because it usually get's noticeably less than the rest of the Tampa area and the Tampa Bay area on most heavy rain events, it's some sort of a weird local rain shadow. I've seen events be declared record rainfall events at Tampa International that are notably still below the record at surrounding stations.

Spring will be here before you know it. And all the snow up north will melt, leaving in its wake memories and stories that will be repeated to future generations for decades to come...

its already here...
Quoting 178. WaterWitch11:

Spring will be here before you know it. And all the snow up north will melt, leaving in its wake memories and stories that will be repeated to future generations for decades to come...

its already here...
Where are you?
Quoting 177. Jedkins01:



I admittedly misread your statement as well, I thought you said January through all of February total, which in this case, 6 inches would be near enough to the average if you include the full two months. Tampa would be 5.04 for the average through both months which is close enough to 6 for that to be considered "typical".
Truthfully though, Tampa is a bit of a strange anomaly in Central Florida, it averages notably less rain per average climate year, by about 8-12 inches, than other sites in the Tampa Bay area, not just per year but about every month from what I can see.
Because of that, Tampa International is a slight dry bias compared to all other sites and so I don't think it's a good analog to use for average rainfall. I would take a station that is in the middle or an average of all of them to to get a better bet.
The average Jan-Feb at St. Petersburg is 5.96, Bradenton 5.38, Plant City 5.44 which gives an average of 5.59, close to 6.

It has always been strange to me though that Tampa has a strangely low precip average. As far as I know, it's the only official observation that averages less than 50 inches per year in Florida aside from the Keys at 46.30, while other stations in the same county average from 53 to 58 inches, and the same goes for Pinellas. In fact St. Petersburg averages 54.70 and Clearwater about 56, and Bradenton is 56 and all 3 Tampa Bay sites are only just across the bay only several miles from Tampa International airport.

I guarantee if Tampa International airport was in any other part of Tampa it would have a noticeably higher rainfall average, because it usually get's noticeably less than the rest of the Tampa area and the Tampa Bay area on most heavy rain events, it's some sort of a weird local rain shadow. I've seen events be declared record rainfall events at Tampa International that are notably still below the record at surrounding stations.



All good points. However, the last 3 or 4 years the Tampa airport reporting station has been well over 50 inches. It does always seem that the reporting station misses the heaviest of rain.
Quoting 180. tampabaymatt:


All good points. However, the last 3 or 4 years the Tampa airport reporting station has been well over 50 inches. It does always seem that the reporting station misses the heaviest of rain.


While that's true, the last 3-4 years have been pretty wet with rainfall consistently a bit above average for the whole bay area, and Tampa actually still is the driest of the stations in the area the last few years despite being wetter than average, Bradenton, Tarpon Springs, and other Tampa Bay area sites have averaged more than 60 inches the past few years. The dry seasons the past few years have actually been pretty below average, although this one not too bad, it's just the rainy seasons have been really intense the last 3-4 years.

storm 1

xx/xx/xx
Who thinks southeast Louisiana will get on the snow next week. I do.
Boston needs a time out from all this snow!!
The Weather Channel has named Winter Storm Neptune, a winter storm forecast to deliver blizzard conditions to parts of New England still struggling to recover from a series of major snowstorms virtually unprecedented in modern times.

The National Weather Service has already issued blizzard watches for the entire east coast of New England, stretching from Cape Cod in southeast Massachusetts through the Boston area, the Seacoast region of New Hampshire, and the entire coast of Maine as well as areas as far inland as Bangor.

Winter Storm Neptune's impact will likely be magnified by a large field of strong winds, even in areas outside the heaviest snow, and a sharp drop in temperatures that will lead to dangerously low wind chills in the wake of the storm.
187. beell
Quoting 168. sar2401:

What's your take on the chances for severe thunderstorms down here Tuesday? If the low develops as forecast, the return flow should be pretty vigorous, and the set up looks typical for severe storms. It doesn't look like the chances for snow are too high this far south but so much is dependent on exactly where the low is in relation to the cold air that I don't think anyone will really know the answer to that until just before we get a changeover, if it occurs.


As it stands right now, Saturated column. Little instability. Lots of clouds. Zero chance. Timing is a guess-but any potential day-time heating would be nullified by frontal passage.

Very good chance of heavy rain for the gulf coast.



This extreme pattern of strong Nor`Easter storms recently concerns me...The Hurricane Season is just 3 and a Half Months away...if this pattern continues, that spells trouble.
189. N3EG
Meanwhile, the Pacific Northwest is having an exceptionally warm winter. Temperatures are anywhere from 5 to 10 degrees F above normal every day, and today it was 60. No records have been broken on a daily basis, but I'm sure we're going to have a monthly or season record.
Beautiful Extratropical Cyclone over Southeast Canada.

Quoting 180. tampabaymatt:


All good points. However, the last 3 or 4 years the Tampa airport reporting station has been well over 50 inches. It does always seem that the reporting station misses the heaviest of rain.


This is my biggest complaint about the Orlando official record. Our reporting station is OIA, the airport, which is about 11 miles from the city center. So when the official numbers are reported, they aren't very accurate for what's going on in Orlando proper as our storms can dump 3 inches on one side of the street and have it be dry on the other.
Quoting 189. N3EG:

Meanwhile, the Pacific Northwest is having an exceptionally warm winter. Temperatures are anywhere from 5 to 10 degrees F above normal every day, and today it was 60. No records have been broken on a daily basis, but I'm sure we're going to have a monthly or season record.
and anchorage has little or next to nothing for snow on the ground boston could ship it there that's where its to be anyway just a little displacement there going on
194. beell
Quoting 192. Naga5000:



This is my biggest complaint about the Orlando official record. Our reporting station is OIA, the airport, which is about 11 miles from the city center. So when the official numbers are reported, they aren't very accurate for what's going on in Orlando proper as our storms can dump 3 inches on one side of the street and have it be dry on the other.


That really seems to be a case of poor site placement of the streets...
Nasty..
Quoting 190. pablosyn:

Beautiful Extratropical Cyclone over Southeast Canada.



newfoundland
St. John's (George St. - W)

Quoting 190. pablosyn:

Beautiful Extratropical Cyclone over Southeast Canada.




Loop
Quoting 193. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

and anchorage has little or next to nothing for snow on the ground boston could ship it there that where its to be anyway just a little displacement there going on
Wouldnt have to worry about it melting either.....Not until it hit B.C anyway....
Quoting 197. LAbonbon:



Loop


And a baroclinic leaf over the mid Atlantic waters. Just offshore. Tantalus comes to mind.
Quoting 113. StormTrackerScott:

80 to 82 with mid to upper 60's at night. Very nice.
That's the temperature range year around here in Boquete - in the mountains of western Panama...
Insulate with sawdust.

Quoting 133. georgevandenberghe:



Actually the challenge to pose to these students is to build a snow pile that will survive the summer.
Quoting 200. Xulonn:

That's the temperature range year around here in Boquete - in the mountains of western Panama...


Don't tell me that's a shot from your house...'cause if it is then PlazaRed just might have some competition for best view :)
This is definitely a night to read your favorite books up under the covers as it'll go down to 11 degrees tonight and maybe 9 or 10 in other places.Brrrrr!.
Spring!? is tat You!!
Jeff-CapitalWeatherGang
8:01 PM EST
Yes! In the past week, my seasonal allergies have started. I seem very sensitive to early tree pollens. Usually my spring allergies start toward the end of February, but this year they have started quite early.
Quoting 203. washingtonian115:

This is definitely a night to read your favorite books up under the covers as it'll go down to 11 degrees tonight and maybe 9 or 10 in other places.Brrrrr!.

It may not be that cold here, but it's definitely cooling down quickly...it will be colder than last night. I'm following your suggestion - sometimes a book just beats reading online.

I'm headed offline and hopefully headed for an early night.

Good night, all.
Quoting 203. washingtonian115:

This is definitely a night to read your favorite books up under the covers as it'll go down to 11 degrees tonight and maybe 9 or 10 in other places.Brrrrr!.

pws

Elev 548 ft 43.77 °N, 79.28 °W | Updated 27 sec ago


Scattered Clouds

Scattered Clouds


1.4 °F

Feels Like -9 °F







N

4.9

Wind from NNW
Gusts 7.4 mph
all 8 boilers fire up toasty inside
It's good to know that interesting weather is happening elsewhere in the world, because it sure isn't happening here now. A very dry month under a currently cloudy, average temperature high pressure setup in the UK: weather muck, really. Either a warm spell or snowy spell transported from the US would make major waves here but it seems to be just more of the same for the time being; in Scotland, mid 40s during the day, high 30s at night. Not (yet) warm enough to go out and enjoy the rapidly increasing daylight and scenery, but it did actually feel rather warm in the brief sunshine at lunchtime. A reasonable winter seems to be fizzling out now, although snow can of course return well into April up here.

Not even interested in the spring season this year, as I'm already impatiently planning days of coastal walks and hill-climbing; roll on an early and dry summer!
Chances are we get El-Nino later this Summer or Fall. Chances seem to be increasing as each update goes by.

Notice the other models are stronger with El-Nino than then CFSv2 now.

211. vis0

Quoting 28. sar2401:

LOL. I made the same bet when I was in high school, so that was the early 60's some time. The school parking lot had piles that were about 8 feet tall, with a couple over 10 feet. They had to put up directional signs to the various buildings because you couldn't see them when you were down in the snow maze. I bet Memorial Day. The last little bit melted the day after.
since gas was cheaper then, SARprised you didn't try  melting the snow, with car's heat blower e.g. running the car exhaust facing the small pile of snow, if asked just say the "motor "ain't" turning over" *eng::RUrURUrU RUrrrURUrU*
Hurricane Cristobal's tropical cyclone report has been released.
Tropical storm Dolly will be the last TCR released for 2014 coming up within the next couple of weeks.

Category 5 hurricane Marie's tropical cyclone report was also released
If you're interested.
Boston broke it's all time snowiest February record today. 42.2" for the month. Also set a record for most consecutive days of greater than half an inch of snowfall, today being the 6th in a row. Looks like a one day breather tomorrow before another foot or so Saturday/Sunday. Maybe another round next week. That storm could produce snow much further down the coast too.
Quoting 210. StormTrackerScott:

Chances are we get El-Nino later this Summer or Fall. Chances seem to be increasing as each update goes by.

Notice the other models are stronger with El-Nino than then CFSv2 now.




Where have I heard this before...
Quoting 213. MAweatherboy1:

Boston broke it's all time snowiest February record today. 42.2" for the month. Also set a record for most consecutive days of greater than half an inch of snowfall, today being the 6th in a row. Looks like a one day breather tomorrow before another foot or so Saturday/Sunday. Maybe another round next week. That storm could produce snow much further down the coast too.
this is a crazy winter for the northeast so far
As MA mentioned, Boston picked up additional snowfall today, bringing the month-to-date total to its greatest on record, and raising the seasonal total to 79.4". As such, 2014-15 is now the 8th snowiest winter on record in the city.

Evening all. Looks like some interesting events have been taking place weatherwise of late.

The cloud cover over northern South America this evening caught my eye ...

Quoting 212. TylerStanfield:

Hurricane Cristobal's tropical cyclone report has been released.
Tropical storm Dolly will be the last TCR released for 2014 coming up within the next couple of weeks.

Category 5 hurricane Marie's tropical cyclone report was also released
If you're interested.
Tanks 4 dis ... :-) good reading 4 my day off ....
Date | 2015-02-13 01:00 Local ⇄ UTC

Data | Wind + Temp @ Surface


Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Chances are we get El-Nino later this Summer or Fall. Chances seem to be increasing as each update goes by.

Notice the other models are stronger with El-Nino than then CFSv2 now.



You crack me up.
Quoting 214. VAbeachhurricanes:



Where have I heard this before...
6 nmonths ago but scott he is just fighting with it I don't think he will ever give up

its all good it will happen when it choses for it to happen

and I know scott will be there to let us all know

i see you back from a hiatus
Quoting 72. tampabaymatt:



Hopefully no kids decide to play in that snow mountain created near MIT. It just looks like an accident waiting to happen. I understand they have to put the snow somewhere, but creating one enormous mountain doesn't seem like the best idea. The fact that it occurred at MIT makes it even more mind boggling.


My best friend says she plans on climbing the mountain tomorrow. She's a freshman at MIT. I guess a lot of people have been climbing that mountain...since...it's a mountain of fun near or next to campus.
Quoting beell:


As it stands right now, Saturated column. Little instability. Lots of clouds. Zero chance. Timing is a guess-but any potential day-time heating would be nullified by frontal passage.

Very good chance of heavy rain for the gulf coast.



Thanks. Now it looks like the models have flip-flopped again, even since the time of my question to you. This is the latest discussion from Birmingham. Do you detect a note of frustration in this one? :-)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
541 PM CST THU FEB 12 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS RELATIVELY
STRAIGHTFORWARD...BUT NOT WITHOUT ITS OWN SET OF IMPACTS. STRONG
COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES WELL DOWN INTO THE
20S. LOW DEW POINTS WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SATURDAY WILL SEE A MODEST WARM UP...BUT THE NEXT
COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER TURN TO SHARPLY COLDER WEATHER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THINGS GET MESSY AFTER THAT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE
GULF COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE REDUCES THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT BRINGS BACK IN THE THREAT OF WINTRY WEATHER.

THE FIRST TIME OF CONCERN IS MONDAY MORNING. WE ARE STILL
ENTRENCHED IN A RATHER COLD AIR MASS AT THAT TIME...AND THE FIRST
WAVE OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION IS FAST APPROACHING THE WESTERN
STATE LINE BY 12Z. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT JUST ABOUT
ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE...FROM SNOW AND SLEET TO RAIN AND FREEZING
RAIN. WOULD RATHER IT BE EITHER ALL RAIN OR ALL SNOW...SINCE EVEN
A SMALL AMOUNT OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET COULD CAUSE SOME
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FOR A MORNING RUSH HOUR.

AS THE GULF LOW STRENGTHENS AND MOVES TOWARDS ALABAMA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO INCH
JUST WARM ENOUGH TO CHANGE THINGS OVER TO RAIN IN MOST AREAS. BUT
ONE AREA OF CONCERN IS THE NORTHEAST...WHERE COLD AIR MAY BE HARD
TO PUSH OUT DUE TO SOME WEDGING/COLD AIR DAMMING AFFECTS. THE
NEXT SURGE OF COLD AIR STARTS TO FILTER IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW LATE TUESDAY...AND THAT WILL BRING ANOTHER WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

HAVING SAID ALL THE ABOVE...THE THING THAT NEEDS TO BE STRESSED IS
THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE BOARD REGARDING THIS
SYSTEM. JUST TUESDAY ALONE HAS JUMPED FROM BEING CHILLY...TO BEING
WARMER WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...BACK TO BEING CHILLY AND
RAINY. THROW IN THE UNCERTAINTIES INVOLVED WITH THE TIMING OF THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY MORNING...THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW...HOW SLOW OR FAST THE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT AT THE
END...AND THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH EACH OF THESE
PHASES OF THIS SYSTEM...AND YOU'VE GOT A SITUATION THAT HAS EVEN
LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN TYPICAL FOR A POTENTIAL WINTER EVENT FOR
CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE ZONES AND THE GRIDDED FORECASTS NEED TO
REFLECT OUR BEST ESTIMATE AT THE TIME OF ISSUANCE...BUT BE AWARE
THAT THAT BEST ESTIMATE WILL NEED TO BE FREQUENTLY EVALUATED AND
ADJUSTED UNTIL THE COMPUTER MODELS (AND OUR OWN FORECASTING
EXPERIENCE DATABASE) ALLOW US TO LOCK IN ON MORE SPECIFICS.

THE TL;DNR VERSION -- COLD...NOT AS COLD...COLD AGAIN...RAIN
(MAYBE WINTRY) AND COLD AGAIN...BUT THIS FORECAST WILL LIKELY
CHANGE.
Enso neutral this summer and fall. Easy bet.
Quoting vis0:

since gas was cheaper then, SARprised you didn't try  melting the snow, with car's heat blower e.g. running the car exhaust facing the small pile of snow, if asked just say the "motor "ain't" turning over" *eng::RUrURUrU RUrrrURUrU*
No, you've got it backwards. I didn't want the snow to melt until Memorial Day. I would have had to have my car's air conditioning running...if I had a car...and if I had air conditioning. I didn't have either in 1962. :-)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Why does it look like you're burning cowboy boots in your boiler?
Quoting CaribBoy:
Enso neutral this summer and fall. Easy bet.
Do you think we will get La Niña this time next winter. I believe that's where the pattern wants to go to.
Quoting 224. CaribBoy:

Enso neutral this summer and fall. Easy bet.
Quoting tiggerhurricanes2001:
Tigers, what do you think of the hurricane season ahead. I am thinking of 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.
Absolute bombing day of surf. These pics RC's Satelite bch.
Double over head perfection.
Link
Quoting 188. RyanSperrey:

This extreme pattern of strong Nor`Easter storms recently concerns me...The Hurricane Season is just 3 and a Half Months away...if this pattern continues, that spells trouble.
Usually when there is an above average amount of snow, doesn't that usually lead to an active Atlantic hurricane season?
Quoting tiggerhurricanes2001:
Usually when there is an above average amount of snow, doesn't that usually lead to an active Atlantic hurricane season?
That is true, every weather type has its parameters.
If you forecast El Nino enough times then eventually you'll make the right call. I genuinely have no information as to whether this is normally the case, but this current sequence has been a textbook case of the 'stopped clock' version of guesswork. None of the predicted El Nino events have happened so far, yet by projecting them into the future, it undoubtedly will occur.

The major sceptic victim of this event should be the much-produced Nino models and/or ocean temperature charts, though whether they were meant to provide an accurate outcome of ocean temperatures months in advance seems unlikely. They have certainly been useless for the last twelve months at least.
234. vis0
¿gk????+
Quoting 224. CaribBoy:

Enso neutral this summer and fall. Easy bet.
Atlantic still looks like it will be slow this year.
Quoting 210. StormTrackerScott:

Chances are we get El-Nino later this Summer or Fall. Chances seem to be increasing as each update goes by.

Notice the other models are stronger with El-Nino than then CFSv2 now.


3 years with the models saying El nino.
237. beell
223. sar2401

Take your pick, sar. None of these look too terribly wintry for AL.

ADDED: should have saved the 00Z frame-the hot link just expired...
All 4 3 frames valid 18Z, Tuesday-from today's 06Z (top) and the 12Z & 18Z (bottom) A bit of a drift to the south in the surface low. Quite a bit of variability in the placement of the 0C isotherm.




(click for larger images)
Looks like Fat Tuesday is going to be a wash in Mobile. Oh well, the sights will still be entertaining.
It's time to name one of these dang New England storms "Nelly"!
Quoting 239. listenerVT:

It's time to name one of these dang New England storms "Nelly"!
woah nelly maybe
Above Average Snowfall in Northeast This Winter, Farmer’s Almanac Predicts

This coming winter will bring above-normal snowfall to the Northeast, but is not expected to be worse than last winter when a string of snow storms kept Long Island blanketed in white stuff.

That’s according to the long-range weather forecast published Wednesday in the 2015 edition of the Old Farmer’s Almanac, the 223-year-old New Hampshire-based annual guide to gardening tips, recipes, fun facts and astronomical data.

“Think of it as a refriger-nation,” Janice Stillman, the Almanac’s editor, told The Associated Press.

The Almanac also forecasts that this winter will be colder than normal, with temperatures 1-to-4 degrees below average. The snowiest part of the season the season will be the later half of December, mid-January and the first half of February, according to the Almanac.

The publication touts that its storied prognostication is derived from a “secret formula” concocted by its 18th century founders that now also incorporates modern advances in meteorology and climate science. It says it is accurate in 80-percent of forecasts, although the 2014 edition’s forecast that this summer would be “oppressively” hot and humid in the Northeast hasn’t come true.

The National Weather Service, which generally sticks to short-term forecasts, predicted Thursday above-average temps and an equal chance of above or below average precipitation in its three-month outlook for September through November, according to the agency’s Climate Prediction Center.

The Almanac’s above-average snowfall prediction for this winter will likely prompt groans from Long Islanders still shivering at the thought of the polar vortex and the seemingly nonstop snow it brought after the New Year—or the record-breaking February 2013 blizzard that blanketed part of Suffolk County in nearly three feet of white stuff.

Looking beyond next winter, the Almanac also forecasts above-normal spring and summer temps on the East Coast with below-average precipitation. It also predicts that the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season “will not be particularly active,” with a major tropical cyclone most likely to strike the Gulf region in late August.

The Almanac was released a month early this year due to reader demand, AP reported.

Link

Verifying this it seems the Almanac did fairly well for the winter forecast, especially for Boston. Now looking ahead could this year be the end of the drought of a major hurricane landfall in the US?
Quoting 226. sar2401:


Why does it look like you're burning cowboy boots in your boiler?
there toasty real toasty
Quoting 223. sar2401:

Thanks. Now it looks like the models have flip-flopped again, even since the time of my question to you. This is the latest discussion from Birmingham. Do you detect a note of frustration in this one? :-)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
541 PM CST THU FEB 12 2015

.UPDATE...

THE TL;DNR VERSION -- COLD...NOT AS COLD...COLD AGAIN...RAIN
(MAYBE WINTRY) AND COLD AGAIN...BUT THIS FORECAST WILL LIKELY
CHANGE.


The last part amused me. Slight touch of WTFrustration.
The Farmer's Almanac is to meteorology what alchemy is to physics.
Quoting 242. GTstormChaserCaleb:



Based on the last few seasons... maybe the signal is in the process of shifting?
The 0z GFS takes the midweek surface low down into the Gulf and across the Florida Panhandle before it parallels the East Coast.


Quoting 200. Xulonn:

That's the temperature range year around here in Boquete - in the mountains of western Panama...



Geeze man way to make us, jealous, after spending time in the mountains of Central America, it's a great climate, it feels like Florida cold fronts in the fall and Spring but with the rain and thunderstorms of summer, its not too hot, not too cold. Plus, what beats the scene of green lush mountains?

Appreciate what you got there ;)
Quoting tiggerhurricanes2001:
Usually when there is an above average amount of snow, doesn't that usually lead to an active Atlantic hurricane season?
No. In addition, there's only an above average amount of snow in New England and a few other isolated spots. The vast majority of the country is experiencing a snow drought.
Quoting 247. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The 0z GFS takes the midweek surface low down into the Gulf and across the Florida Panhandle before it parallels the East Coast.





Fun stuff
Quoting jeffs713:

The last part amused me. Slight touch of WTFrustration.
LOL. For those who don't know internet speak, TL;DNR means "Too long - did not read". This seems to be a common issue with the discussions, the crazy flip-flopping of the models this season, and forecasters trying to make sense out of them for we civilians.
253. flsky
If I remember correctly alchemy is the supposed forerunner to chemistry.
Quoting 245. Chicklit:

The Farmer's Almanac is to meteorology what alchemy is to physics.
Quite mild here tonight compared to what I expected and the forecast for the next 5 days no longer calls for any temperatures below 40F. I was actually looking forward to one really cold Arctic blast before spring. It will still be chilly though. Interestingly, our coldest day of the season happened in the first half of November. It was in the 40s all afternoon, though technically the high of the day came around midnight and was well into the 50s. Otherwise, I can't remember a day this winter where the the high hasn't made it to 60F. The weather has overall been quite pleasant the last 3-4 months, with enough rain to keep the garden from getting painfully dry. I would love a winter like this every year.
Quoting 253. flsky:

If I remember correctly alchemy is the supposed forerunner to chemistry.


My point is correlation of bogus speculation to evidence-based theory.
Chemistry is a more of a mathematically-based science than meteorology or physics which require informed judgment.
Hoax or obsolete are not too strong a word, but I was being polite.
After all, everybody has to make a living.
Quoting 212. TylerStanfield:

Hurricane Cristobal's tropical cyclone report has been released.
Tropical storm Dolly will be the last TCR released for 2014 coming up within the next couple of weeks.

Category 5 hurricane Marie's tropical cyclone report was also released
If you're interested.
The TCR for Cristobal showed that the consensus model, FSSE - Florida State Super Ensemble model performed the best (in terms of track) and had the lowest margin of error for the first 12 hrs. After that the EMXI - Previous ECMWF Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr (rare) model performed the best and had the lowest margin of error from 24-96 hrs. Another model that did well was the EGRI - Previous UKMET Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr.
Quoting beell:
223. sar2401

Take your pick, sar. None of these look too terribly wintry for AL.

ADDED: should have saved the 00Z frame-the hot link just expired...
All 4 3 frames valid 18Z, Tuesday-from today's 06Z (top) and the 12Z & 18Z (bottom) A bit of a drift to the south in the surface low. Quite a bit of variability in the placement of the 0�C isotherm.




(click for larger images)
Yes, there is, to all of that. It will undoubtedly change again on the next run, thus the frustration from the forecasters in Birmingham. Looking at the models is making me dizzy at this point. I'll take a look again Sunday and see if they make sense then.
Quoting 231. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Usually when there is an above average amount of snow, doesn't that usually lead to an active Atlantic hurricane season?


There was a LOT of snow last winter....last hurricane season was another disappointment, except for one storm.

Quoting 223. sar2401:

Thanks. Now it looks like the models have flip-flopped again, even since the time of my question to you. This is the latest discussion from Birmingham. Do you detect a note of frustration in this one? :-)



THE TL;DNR VERSION -- COLD...NOT AS COLD...COLD AGAIN...RAIN
(MAYBE WINTRY) AND COLD AGAIN...BUT THIS FORECAST WILL LIKELY
CHANGE.

I would date this forecaster just for using Internet speak in a forecast discussion.

Quoting 231. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Usually when there is an above average amount of snow, doesn't that usually lead to an active Atlantic hurricane season?
naaaaah
Quoting 259. Astrometeor:



There was a LOT of snow last winter....last hurricane season was another disappointment, except for one storm.


There's definitely more snow this year, and more still to come. It could be the snowiest year on record Boston.
Shift in the UKMET 00z north and westward could be a sign that the models will shift northwest in the future. One of the UKMET biases is that it tends to lower surface pressures too much and too far south. That in addition to lowering heights too much along the southern ends of shortwave trough, which results in a southward displacement in storm track. (See NCEP model biases page).

My guess is that the GFS 00z is showing a southeast bias, which it has off the eastern seabord and that it's playing catch up with the UKMET which originally had this system down in the Gulf of Mexico, before now shifting north and west.
Model biases
Quoting 262. SeriouslySushi:



There's definitely more snow this year, and more still to come. It could be the snowiest year on record Boston.
more than boston
march can bring some heavy storms as well its gonna be interesting watching this all pan out

only good thing once into march the warming rising sun melts it out fast as average temps increase as we progress into the month

hopefully anyway who knows I could have snow till april
Quoting 262. SeriouslySushi:



There's definitely more snow this year, and more still to come. It could be the snowiest year on record Boston.


More in Boston, other areas of Massachusetts and Vermont and Maine. But other parts of the NE aren't getting as much as they did last year (exception is Buffalo). The Mid-Atlantic like Pennsylvania and New Jersey are seeing less snow.

Quoting 263. Drakoen:

Shift in the UKMET 00z north and westward could be a sign that the models will shift northwest in the future. One of the UKMET biases is that it tends to lower surface pressures too much and too far south. That in addition to lowering heights too much along the southern ends of shortwave trough, which results in a southward displacement in storm track. (See NCEP model biases page).

My guess is that the GFS 00z is showing a southeast bias, which it has off the eastern seabord and that it's playing catch up with the UKMET which originally had this system down in the Gulf of Mexico, before now shifting north and west.
Model biases
Thanks for the link, Drak. Even I learned something new reading that.
With Dr. Masters taking a blog break, I am surprised we haven't gotten the rare February Atlantic Hurricane threatening the East Coast... Isn't that usually par for the course?

Or do we now get copious amounts of snow on the East Coast when he takes a break in the winter time?

Quoting 254. HurrMichaelOrl:

Quite mild here tonight compared to what I expected and the forecast for the next 5 days no longer calls for any temperatures below 40F. I was actually looking forward to one really cold Arctic blast before spring. It will still be chilly though. Interestingly, our coldest day of the season happened in the first half of November. It was in the 40s all afternoon, though technically the high of the day came around midnight and was well into the 50s. Otherwise, I can't remember a day this winter where the the high hasn't made it to 60F. The weather has overall been quite pleasant the last 3-4 months, with enough rain to keep the garden from getting painfully dry. I would love a winter like this every year.
I hate the cold, although I'm never quite as exasperated if we're flirting with record lows or talking about snow. Although, the latter never happens in Louisiana anyway, so meh.
Quoting 266. KoritheMan:


Thanks for the link, Drak. Even I learned something new reading that.



That page is outdated and there is a new link within that page; however, reading the lists, you can see some of the biases have not changed based on what we have witnessed this winter.
Quoting KoritheMan:

I would date this forecaster just for using Internet speak in a forecast discussion.
Yes, I'm sure you would. :-) It's kind of heartening to see the pros getting a little teed off with the models though. It really doesn't matter much what we think, but it will matter if the operational forecasters start to get up in arms about model performance and discrepancy.
Quoting Astrometeor:


More in Boston, other areas of Massachusetts and Vermont and Maine. But other parts of the NE aren't getting as much as they did last year (exception is Buffalo). The Mid-Atlantic like Pennsylvania and New Jersey are seeing less snow.
Correct, and the lack of snow in traditionally snowy areas like the upper Midwest is starting to be a real problem for wintering over crops like winter wheat. As much as there has been anomalous snow in Boston, there's been an anomalous lack of snow in places like Minneapolis-St. Paul.
How goes it Sar?

Living the dream up in Alaska... Snowed and rained a little today. Temps are flirting with above freezing now.

Quoting 269. Drakoen:



That page is outdated and there is a new link within that page; however, reading the lists, you can see some of the biases have not changed based on what we have witnessed this winter.
The fact that I was oblivious to even a few of them suggests that my meteorological armada is not complete.

This is why I hold you in high esteem. Few other people can debate me on a fairly even level, much less make me step back and actually LEARN something.
Quoting Dakster:
With Dr. Masters taking a blog break, I am surprised we haven't gotten the rare February Atlantic Hurricane threatening the East Coast... Isn't that usually par for the course?

Or do we now get copious amounts of snow on the East Coast when he takes a break in the winter time?
Hey, Dak. Have you put away the snow shovel yet? I hear they're paying good money for shovelers on the MBTA tracks in Boston if you want see how Alaska used to be. :-)
Quoting Dakster:
How goes it Sar?

Living the dream up in Alaska... Snowed and rained a little today. Temps are flirting with above freezing now.
It'sa ridiculous down here. It's 29 now with a dewpoint of 14. That means the low should be about 20 or maybe even in the high teens if it stays this dry. Even the winds being up hasn't stopped the fall yet. Except for Monday, it's going to be in the 20's through Wednesday morning with a high Sunday maybe in the low 40's. I cannot remember a winter in my 10 years here where we've had so many nights in the teens or twenties. Snowed and rained might be what we get Tuesday night. Seriously, this is not why I moved to Alabama.
Quoting Drakoen:


That page is outdated and there is a new link within that page; however, reading the lists, you can see some of the biases have not changed based on what we have witnessed this winter.
I've seen that page before and I'm always amazed at the GFS biases that were identified in the 90's and early part of this century that are still very apparent in the GFS. I wonder if they actually work on these issues or just list them and hope it all works out?
Quoting 274. sar2401:

Hey, Dak. Have you put away the snow shovel yet? I hear they're paying good money for shovelers on the MBTA tracks in Boston if you want see how Alaska used to be. :-)


Never took the shovel out - not needed up here. No snow.

Careful about joking around or you'll need a snow blower.

Funny how you are going to be colder in Alabama than I am in Alaska. It rained today... Was not impressed since it is not 21F out.
Quoting 268. KoritheMan:


I hate the cold, although I'm never quite as exasperated if we're flirting with record lows or talking about snow. Although, the latter never happens in Louisiana anyway, so meh.



I hope you get some snow! Here, I could wish the same, but it won't happen. I haven't even seen frost here in years.
Quoting 189. N3EG:

Meanwhile, the Pacific Northwest is having an exceptionally warm winter. Temperatures are anywhere from 5 to 10 degrees F above normal every day, and today it was 60. No records have been broken on a daily basis, but I'm sure we're going to have a monthly or season record.

What's really hurting is the lack of snowpack in the Cascade Mountains (and the Sierras in California). We're going to pay for that next summer if we don't get some spring snow. Snowpack levels are less than half of average in the Oregon Cascades in the January snow survey and it's only gotten worse since then.

Link

This quote corroborates your post:

In the 19 days before Monday (Feb. 9), the Mount Hood station only saw temperatures at or below freezing for 10 total hours, Webb said. The station has an elevation of 5,370 feet.
Quoting 276. sar2401:

I've seen that page before and I'm always amazed at the GFS biases that were identified in the 90's and early part of this century that are still very apparent in the GFS. I wonder if they actually work on these issues or just list them and hope it all works out?


Good auestion to ask an NCEP employee.


On another note, tonight's 00z runs are supressed for next week, excluding the UKMET. Backwards tracking of the lead shortwave shows it's still several hundred miles away from the sampling network. That shortwave is also involved with two closed mid to upper level lows that are in close promixity to each other. Expect more shifts, for better or for worse.

In the short range, the models look juicer with the clipper for the weekend. Could see 1-3 inches in MD with higher amounts out west and north of the Mason-Dixon line.
Quoting 278. HurrMichaelOrl:



I hope you get some snow! Here, I could wish the same, but it won't happen. I haven't even seen frost here in years.


I remember back when my only experience of winter was an occasional frost/freeze event in the Tampa Bay area. Now up here frost is a bit of a yawn for me, have woken up with a lot of frost car window mornings with 8 AM classes.

It's strange that its been so long since you've seen frost though there. My parents house is in Pinellas County, probably the most heavily ocean moderated area in Central Florida, yet we did occasionally see some thick frost events, and in 2010-2011 winter it got as cold as 24. Although even in 2013 my last winter there we had patchy frost.

It's hard to believe heavily urbanized and water influenced Pinellas has seen more frost than your area the last several years, but it does seem like the west side of the state tends to get colder than the east side for whatever reason. Look at Brooksville, it's due west of Orlando and it can get into the mid 20's on nights where it barely breaks upper 30's in Orlando. What's weird is that I've seen cold events where even Sarasota and Punta Gorda have gotten colder.

Not sure if it's soil composition or what, but these are urbanized areas too, and are closer to the gulf moderating influence than Orlando, which makes it even more strange.

I know you've said that you haven't had any days below 60 for example, and while it has been a warm winter so far, the Tampa Bay area has seen some days with highs below 60, not sure why it's been so warm there.

Quoting 281. Jedkins01:



I remember back when my only experience of winter was an occasional frost/freeze event in the Tampa Bay area. Now up here frost is a bit of a yawn for me, have woken up with a lot of frost car window mornings with 8 AM classes.

It's strange that its been so long since you've seen frost though there. My parents house is in Pinellas County, probably the most heavily ocean moderated area in Central Florida, yet we did occasionally see some thick frost events, and in 2010-2011 winter it got as cold as 24. Although even in 2013 my last winter there we had patchy frost.

It's hard to believe heavily urbanized and water influenced Pinellas has seen more frost than your area the last several years, but it does seem like the west side of the state tends to get colder than the east side for whatever reason. Look at Brooksville, it's due west of Orlando and it can get into the mid 20's on nights where it barely breaks upper 30's in Orlando. What's weird is that I've seen cold events where even Sarasota and Punta Gorda have gotten colder.

Not sure if it's soil composition or what, but these are urbanized areas too, and are closer to the gulf moderating influence than Orlando, which makes it even more strange.

I know you've said that you haven't had any days below 60 for example, and while it has been a warm winter so far, the Tampa Bay area has seen some days with highs below 60, not sure why it's been so warm there.

There's the trademark text wall we've all come to know and love!
Quoting 282. KoritheMan:


There's the trademark text wall we've all come to know and love!



Well you know, eventually I'm bound to incorporate text walls, I guess it's just part of my nature or something, I'm going to be up until at least 4 working on a lab report anyway, lol.

Quoting 283. Jedkins01:



Well you know, eventually I'm bound to incorporate text walls, I guess it's just part of my nature or something, I'm going to be up until at least 4 working on a lab report anyway, lol.
We all have our gimmicks. Mine are vulgarity and controversy, yours is text walls. :)
Quoting 281. Jedkins01:



I remember back when my only experience of winter was an occasional frost/freeze event in the Tampa Bay area. Now up here frost is a bit of a yawn for me, have woken up with a lot of frost car window mornings with 8 AM classes.

It's strange that its been so long since you've seen frost though there. My parents house is in Pinellas County, probably the most heavily ocean moderated area in Central Florida, yet we did occasionally see some thick frost events, and in 2010-2011 winter it got as cold as 24. Although even in 2013 my last winter there we had patchy frost.

It's hard to believe heavily urbanized and water influenced Pinellas has seen more frost than your area the last several years, but it does seem like the west side of the state tends to get colder than the east side for whatever reason. Look at Brooksville, it's due west of Orlando and it can get into the mid 20's on nights where it barely breaks upper 30's in Orlando. What's weird is that I've seen cold events where even Sarasota and Punta Gorda have gotten colder.

Not sure if it's soil composition or what, but these are urbanized areas too, and are closer to the gulf moderating influence than Orlando, which makes it even more strange.

I know you've said that you haven't had any days below 60 for example, and while it has been a warm winter so far, the Tampa Bay area has seen some days with highs below 60, not sure why it's been so warm there.


It's BARELY gotten below 40 in Orlando this winter!! (maybe only once or twice). While us in the Panhandle were sitting below 20, I remember checking Orlando's weather and it was maybe in the high 30's if barely.
Yup, magic day. Thanks for sharing.

Quoting 230. Abacosurf:

Absolute bombing day of surf. These pics RC's Satelite bch.
Double over head perfection.
Link
Quoting 210. StormTrackerScott:

Chances are we get El-Nino later this Summer or Fall. Chances seem to be increasing as each update goes by.

Notice the other models are stronger with El-Nino than then CFSv2 now.


maybe you should see psychiatrist.. only crazy people repeat themselves over and over and over and over and over and over. in the past 12 months, when has the CFSv2 verified?
Quoting 285. opal92nwf:


It's BARELY gotten below 40 in Orlando this winter!! (maybe only once or twice). While us in the Panhandle were sitting below 20, I remember checking Orlando's weather and it was maybe in the high 30's if barely.



No freezes this year. The lowest temp I've recorded on the PWS is 39 this winter.


High temps are forecasted to stay in the 50s today in Tampa with this incoming dry front.
only 5F here in east haven,conn
Blizzard Watch forecast for me. Winds sustained 30 to 40 mph with frequent gusts over 50 mph. Temps in single digits dropping to near zero with wind chills approaching -30F by dark on Sunday. 12 to 18 inches expected, but NWS has hinted that this total will probably go up. 30 to 40 inches of powder already on the ground leads to crippling drifting. NWS and local authorities concerned that side roads in exposed areas will drift completely shut and be un-plowable without the help of earth moving equipment.


the low littie more to the south next to NJ on this run!
Good Morning..

Allan Huffman ‏@RaleighWx 28m28 minutes ago

Model forecasts continue to show spread, but this morning we are seeing some changes. The two scenarios shown by the models now are:

1. Significant winter storm for much of SE, TN/N AL, NGA, upstate SC, much of NC with sharp northern cut-off. S Va on the fence.

2. Very suppressed solution (6z GFS) with some snow on 1st wave for Tn/Al/GA/SC but not huge deal. And nothing for anyone on 2nd wave.

The warmer NW solution is not being shown in the model data this morning, although it could come back for sure, still time for flips/flops.

My opinion? I like the chances for wintry weather for N Al, N Ga, N SC, much of NC, TN, southern VA. Confidence is increasing.

So stay tuned, I will update as i can today and over the weekend. Snow COULD begin as early as Sunday night across TN/N AL, NGA, NW SC, WNC.


Personally I just saw the 00z Euro Ensembles and I havent seen that many in agreement since our snow/ice last winter..48 out of 50 ensembles show snow for Wilmington, NC..


Quoting 210. StormTrackerScott:

Chances are we get El-Nino later this Summer or Fall. Chances seem to be increasing as each update goes by.

Notice the other models are stronger with El-Nino than then CFSv2 now.


Hi Scott, we are probably already in a very weak El-Nino, but it is a Modoki Nino and will turn into a Neutral season come late spring early summer with a chance of La-Nina conditions next fall or winter.
JB this morning
Lunacy over Cause of NE snow

February 13 06:07 AM

As we plumb the depths of winter cold the next week, we find the usual suspects are plumbing the depths of absurdity explaining what they did not see before, but are experts on now. Michael Mann tweeted that a warm eddy with temps 11c above normal "off Cape Cod" contributed ( if so now much) to the New England Blizzard, a sign of climate change. The fact is there seems to have been a warm eddy well out to the ese of Cape Cod

but the storm tracked well west of this. In fact if anything something like that is likely to have the opposite effect, perhaps enhancing convection away from the center and interrupting inflow. These warm eddys vary back and forth in the gulf stream, and there are times when there are compensating cold eddys in the same place. Meteorologically, it is an absurd argument as I said, convective feedback as we have all seen countless times can rob an area away from it. Climo wise, its absurd, since such things are a normal course of nature and not a sign of climate change

He basically was trying to use a method that is valid with warm core systems, IF THEY MOVE DIRECTLY OVER IT, and apply it to a baroclinic system whose strong gradient was WELL TO THE WEST. This is laughable. These Climate heroes make a big deal out of mets not being so called climate experts. Guess what. I had to take climo when I was at PSU and as all of you know, we base alot of our methodology on the past events. The problem with guys like Mann is they have no idea how to create a forecast where something is on the line that can be measured. Lets see him forecast for year, perhaps he would then understand that some of his statements are completely out of touch with reality



The horizontal temp gradient with these big snowmakers have been enhanced because the deviation from normal is so much colder. It is the sharp slope in temps that forces the kind of upward motion that leads to heavy precip and the sharpest is associated with the -8C isotherm. Followers of me over the years remember the lesson I relayed on the Magic chart snow forecast method.. where you add the forecasted upward motion at 6 hour intervals up and if its -8C, that is your snow accumulation. The most vivid example was the Feb 2006 storm, where I got into such a fight with my good friend Bernie Rayno over maps I was supposed to use for 6-12 inches of snow when I had publicly been mongering for 1-2 feet on my column for NYC because of this method, I refused to on John Kasichs Heartland show on the Saturday Night of the Storm ( another side note, it was when Rocky 6 was being filmed and the snow scenes were from that in that movie) .

I was on Cavuto yesterday because of the weather channel. They put on 2 climatologists and in typical propaganda fashion linked this to "climate change". Since we all know the climate is in a constant state of change, this is like linking air to breathing. Except it would be them saying the source of the air is a magic fairy that is now in charge of re-supplying it.

Both of these examples are stunningly ignorant. We can argue mythical Utopian ( can never be proved) theory all we want. But what both these examples lack is the fact these people have no real world experience. So Boston gets 23 inches of snow out of 1.10 and most of this blitz in New England has been 20-25 to 1. They blame it on extra water vapor because of warming. First of all they didnt bother to look that mixing ratios were BELOW NORMAL during all this


and Precipitable water was near normal ( actually below all around except well to the east)


The words of George Costanza.. its only a lie if you believe it.. Well they cant believe it, because they has never looked, so technically none of this is lying, its ignorance.



So these planet saving climatic heroes we are all supposed to worship need to answer this question.. if these events are a sign of warming with the 20 to 1 ratios ( there is no study saying there is more water vapor in the air. The warm air holds more water argument is completely false. WARM AIR DOES NOT "HOLD WATER" quite the opposite precipitation processes are slower when a column is warmer, its why it snows at a drop of a pin if its cold, but takes much more to create a shower on a hot summer day than a flurry on a cold winter day) then how do you explain the 5 to 1 50 inch plus event in SE pa in March 1958. OVER 10 INCHES OF LIQUID WITH A 50 INCH PLUS STORM AT MORGANTOWN PA

There is that year again, that "crazy" winter Namias studied of 57-58, one of the end game analogs we have jumped on. Gee imagine that a true example of "climate change" OVER 50 YEARS AGO

It is getting nuttier by the day out there, but such things are not only easily refuted, but exposes them for what they are, agenda driven. That they come into my house ( the weather and yes climate) and defile it the way we do, is something that one can not turn their back on when confronted with it.

They should get a real job, like actually trying to forecast. Like the fan in the stands that thinks he can play, they would be carted off the field in no time



ciao for now

Considering the beating he took here yesterday, I thought I'd give JB a chance to expound on the kerfuffle..


Interesting set up here. Cold MDR but warm in the homegrown storms area. Also, the area of extremely warm water in the SW Caribbean that's been boiling for the last few years seems to have finally gotten back to normal. At least for now.
Quoting 254. HurrMichaelOrl:

Quite mild here tonight compared to what I expected and the forecast for the next 5 days no longer calls for any temperatures below 40F. I was actually looking forward to one really cold Arctic blast before spring. It will still be chilly though. Interestingly, our coldest day of the season happened in the first half of November. It was in the 40s all afternoon, though technically the high of the day came around midnight and was well into the 50s. Otherwise, I can't remember a day this winter where the the high hasn't made it to 60F. The weather has overall been quite pleasant the last 3-4 months, with enough rain to keep the garden from getting painfully dry. I would love a winter like this every year.


It's been the trend all Winter for models to shows lots of cold air across FL only get to trend more mild as the event gets closer.
The last 5 runs of the GFS has trended more and more south with next weeks storm which now crosses N FL. This trend could continue even further.



Quoting 297. PensacolaDoug:

JB this morning
Lunacy over Cause of NE snow

February 13 06:07 AM

As we plumb the depths of winter cold the next week, we find the usual suspects are plumbing the depths of absurdity explaining what they did not see before, but are experts on now. Michael Mann tweeted that a warm eddy with temps 11c above normal "off Cape Cod" contributed ( if so now much) to the New England Blizzard, a sign of climate change. The fact is there seems to have been a warm eddy well out to the ese of Cape Cod

but the storm tracked well west of this. In fact if anything something like that is likely to have the opposite effect, perhaps enhancing convection away from the center and interrupting inflow. These warm eddys vary back and forth in the gulf stream, and there are times when there are compensating cold eddys in the same place. Meteorologically, it is an absurd argument as I said, convective feedback as we have all seen countless times can rob an area away from it. Climo wise, its absurd, since such things are a normal course of nature and not a sign of climate change

He basically was trying to use a method that is valid with warm core systems, IF THEY MOVE DIRECTLY OVER IT, and apply it to a baroclinic system whose strong gradient was WELL TO THE WEST. This is laughable. These Climate heroes make a big deal out of mets not being so called climate experts. Guess what. I had to take climo when I was at PSU and as all of you know, we base alot of our methodology on the past events. The problem with guys like Mann is they have no idea how to create a forecast where something is on the line that can be measured. Lets see him forecast for year, perhaps he would then understand that some of his statements are completely out of touch with reality



The horizontal temp gradient with these big snowmakers have been enhanced because the deviation from normal is so much colder. It is the sharp slope in temps that forces the kind of upward motion that leads to heavy precip and the sharpest is associated with the -8C isotherm. Followers of me over the years remember the lesson I relayed on the Magic chart snow forecast method.. where you add the forecasted upward motion at 6 hour intervals up and if its -8C, that is your snow accumulation. The most vivid example was the Feb 2006 storm, where I got into such a fight with my good friend Bernie Rayno over maps I was supposed to use for 6-12 inches of snow when I had publicly been mongering for 1-2 feet on my column for NYC because of this method, I refused to on John Kasichs Heartland show on the Saturday Night of the Storm ( another side note, it was when Rocky 6 was being filmed and the snow scenes were from that in that movie) .

I was on Cavuto yesterday because of the weather channel. They put on 2 climatologists and in typical propaganda fashion linked this to "climate change". Since we all know the climate is in a constant state of change, this is like linking air to breathing. Except it would be them saying the source of the air is a magic fairy that is now in charge of re-supplying it.

Both of these examples are stunningly ignorant. We can argue mythical Utopian ( can never be proved) theory all we want. But what both these examples lack is the fact these people have no real world experience. So Boston gets 23 inches of snow out of 1.10 and most of this blitz in New England has been 20-25 to 1. They blame it on extra water vapor because of warming. First of all they didnt bother to look that mixing ratios were BELOW NORMAL during all this


and Precipitable water was near normal ( actually below all around except well to the east)


The words of George Costanza.. its only a lie if you believe it.. Well they cant believe it, because they has never looked, so technically none of this is lying, its ignorance.



So these planet saving climatic heroes we are all supposed to worship need to answer this question.. if these events are a sign of warming with the 20 to 1 ratios ( there is no study saying there is more water vapor in the air. The warm air holds more water argument is completely false. WARM AIR DOES NOT "HOLD WATER" quite the opposite precipitation processes are slower when a column is warmer, its why it snows at a drop of a pin if its cold, but takes much more to create a shower on a hot summer day than a flurry on a cold winter day) then how do you explain the 5 to 1 50 inch plus event in SE pa in March 1958. OVER 10 INCHES OF LIQUID WITH A 50 INCH PLUS STORM AT MORGANTOWN PA

There is that year again, that "crazy" winter Namias studied of 57-58, one of the end game analogs we have jumped on. Gee imagine that a true example of "climate change" OVER 50 YEARS AGO

It is getting nuttier by the day out there, but such things are not only easily refuted, but exposes them for what they are, agenda driven. That they come into my house ( the weather and yes climate) and defile it the way we do, is something that one can not turn their back on when confronted with it.

They should get a real job, like actually trying to forecast. Like the fan in the stands that thinks he can play, they would be carted off the field in no time



ciao for now


Hi Doug, did that come off the premium site? Good post, it gives us a chance to see the other side of the discussion on climate change, now if only some of the other bloggers on this site had one tenth the knowledge JB has on weather forecasting and climate change than maybe we could bring all the facts to the table on climate change, either for the good or bad depending on your view of the debate. I just love the weather we've had here in South Florida, cool nights, warm days, just need more rain. Wash maybe next year DC will be this years Boston, snow wise.
It would probably be far better from both a readability and a legal standpoint if people posted salient snippets of lengthy diatribes rather than the entire meandering, repetitious, ideological, and often off-topic piece.
4C's now beginning to show up. Very interesting to see yet another Strong Downwelling Kelvin Wave in the works.

Quoting 301. StormTrackerScott:

The last 5 runs of the GFS has trended more and more south with next weeks storm which now crosses N FL. This trend could continue even further.






Morning Scott. We're about to enter the time period when the fronts start to stall out over C FL, so with this active pattern that's been in place, I expect late February and March to be wet for our areas.
Hi folks. Reading the entry I wonder whether this is the winter of lake-, sea- and ocean-effect snow. Though this phenomen isn't something new I can't remember to have seen it happen so often in Southern Europe like this winter. Especially in the last weeks a lot of sea-effect snow was dumped onto the mountains of Central and Southern Italy from the Adriatic Sea, onto parts of Greece and its islands from the Aegean Sea and onto Northern Turkey from the Black Sea. It happened so often this winter that at some time I decided not to post every Mediterranean or Black Sea sea-effect snow event in here any more, lol. Mind, accumulated snow in the mountains of northwestern Turkey is now above 2,5 meters (= 8,2 feet). Guess the reason for all this are sea surface temperatures above normal in combination with a disorderly jetstream, pushing cold air very deep into the south.


Current snow hights in Turkey. Source.


Snow in Uludag/Turkey. Source: Severe Weather Turkey with more amazing pics.

And speaking of Turkey which got very interesting weather the last days (to say the least) due to the winter cyclone in the Eastern Mediterranean (which is still around BTW), here are some youtubes of other storm related events:


Collapsing minaret near Izmir (East coast of Turkey) due to high winds, fortunately nobody was hurt (news reports of this event are from February 11). Same applies to another minaret destroyed by lightning at the southern coast near Antalya (if i got it right from the Turkish media, huh).

Moreover a large ghost ship broke adrift near Izmir, threatening a coastal town. Link to an English report.

Here is a video report which summarizes the wild weather in Turkey in the last days in its several aspects (ghost ship shows up at 2:04):



Middle East:
Snowed-in schools remain closed as Lebanon storm subsides
Lebanon News, Feb. 13, 2015 | 10:49 AM (Last updated: February 13, 2015 | 03:23 PM), with a nice photo gallery
BEIRUT: Schools in mountainous regions of Lebanon remained closed Friday as snowfall continues to bury villages and block roads across the country for a third day.
But weather reports predict that Storm Yohan will subside Friday afternoon, and some areas are already seeing a gradual decrease in snowfall. ...



Current airmasses in Europe with decaying or departing high "Gabriela" in the middle, providing sunshine for the mountains but due to inversion a boring grey sky for me in Rhine Valley; the Eastern Mediterranean low (which presented Lebanon with snow) in the lower right corner, and approaching low "Quinn" from the British Isles on the left side. Looking at the models no outbreak of really cold winter weather is in sight for us, and in spite of all this snow in certain parts of Europe this could turn out to be another mild winter with temperatures above average.
I'm thinking we're going to see another significant ice event out of this. 2 years in a row, I hope not, but I don't like the set up. I could see midlands and upstate SC getting whacked this go around. I think too warm closer to the Pee Dee and coast. Still, just a crap shoot until it actually gets here. The models will be flip flopping up to time of event.

Temps only down to 26F here; warmer than forecast of 21F and much warmer than the teens forecasted a week ago. We'll see what Sunday's reinforcing shot brings.

Windy as all get out last night. Lost some shingles on my west facing roof.

Quoting 295. ncstorm:

Good Morning..

Allan Huffman ‏@RaleighWx 28m28 minutes ago

Model forecasts continue to show spread, but this morning we are seeing some changes. The two scenarios shown by the models now are:

1. Significant winter storm for much of SE, TN/N AL, NGA, upstate SC, much of NC with sharp northern cut-off. S Va on the fence.

2. Very suppressed solution (6z GFS) with some snow on 1st wave for Tn/Al/GA/SC but not huge deal. And nothing for anyone on 2nd wave.

The warmer NW solution is not being shown in the model data this morning, although it could come back for sure, still time for flips/flops.

My opinion? I like the chances for wintry weather for N Al, N Ga, N SC, much of NC, TN, southern VA. Confidence is increasing.

So stay tuned, I will update as i can today and over the weekend. Snow COULD begin as early as Sunday night across TN/N AL, NGA, NW SC, WNC.


Personally I just saw the 00z Euro Ensembles and I havent seen that many in agreement since our snow/ice last winter..48 out of 50 ensembles show snow for Wilmington, NC..



Quoting 304. StormTrackerScott:

4C's now beginning to show up. Very interesting to see yet another Strong Downwelling Kelvin Wave in the works.


Modoki, Scott, lets wait till the end of spring for a forecast on the chance for a Nino or other wise.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Considering the beating he took here yesterday, I thought I'd give JB a chance to expound on the kerfuffle..


Just read his column, makes perfect sense. Thx for sharing.
Quoting 308. NativeSun:

Modoki, Scott, lets wait till the end of spring for a forecast on the chance for a Nino or other wise.


It could be as many models suggest it.


Quoting StormTrackerScott:
4C's now beginning to show up. Very interesting to see yet another Strong Downwelling Kelvin Wave in the works.



Hey Scott, when an El Nino is officially declared, are you going to come on here and tell everyone that you nailed the forecast?
Quoting 311. jrweatherman:



Hey Scott, when an El Nino is officially declared, are you going to come on here and tell everyone that you nailed the forecast?


Actually no not true as I was very wrong last year but there are sign that this year is very different as the SOI values are well with in El-Nino thresholds.
alittle wood for the fire
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Actually no not true as I was very wrong last year but there are sign that this year is very different as the SOI values are well with in El-Nino thresholds.


Ok, just curious. Im wondering if the lack of a strong El Nino has had some impact on the Atlantic basin?
Quoting 311. jrweatherman:



Hey Scott, when an El Nino is officially declared, are you going to come on here and tell everyone that you nailed the forecast?


If anyone can nail it, Scott can. I have complete faith in him.
Quoting 314. jrweatherman:



Ok, just curious. Im wondering if the lack of a strong El Nino has had some impact on the Atlantic basin?


I think it has as we have seen the last several seasons. I also think this strong of a PDO is sign that El-Nino is going to occur later this year question becomes though if El-Nino does materialize is will it be Modoki which is very possible or we could stay warm neutral which actually does bode well for this years Hurricane Season.


wow!! high wind watch for new haven


cold morning!!

Quoting 298. PensacolaDoug:

Considering the beating he took here yesterday, I thought I'd give JB a chance to expound on the kerfuffle..

He just made it worse.

How does that saying go about opening up your mouth and removing all doubt?
Quoting 302. NativeSun:

Hi Doug, did that come off the premium site? Good post, it gives us a chance to see the other side of the discussion on climate change, now if only some of the other bloggers on this site had one tenth the knowledge JB has on weather forecasting and climate change than maybe we could bring all the facts to the table on climate change, either for the good or bad depending on your view of the debate. I just love the weather we've had here in South Florida, cool nights, warm days, just need more rain. Wash maybe next year DC will be this years Boston, snow wise.

That's "the other side of the discussion?" If that's the other side of the discussion on climate science then the debate really is over.

Most of that post wasn't even science, it was just science mixed in between jabs and borderline conspiracy talk. Remember, this is the same guy who claims that climate change violates the laws of thermodynamics (all the while oddly saying that climate changes all the time) and is the same guy who just now claimed that warmer air is not tied to higher moisture content. This is elementary physics and met stuff, folks.
Quoting 309. jrweatherman:



Just read his column, makes perfect sense. Thx for sharing.

In what way does it "make perfect sense?"
Please explain. This environmental scientist is still scratching his head.


i still have lots of snow on the ground here in new haven,conn
Instead of just slamming the guy why don't you debate the points he makes in it?
The one thing JB's diatribe seems to be lacking is professionalism.

I don't follow the guy, but is this the norm?
I think Joe B should be a guest blogger on here although it would never happen because he brings reason and facts that the deniers will never accept.
The Timing
Those in the Northeast probably know this drill by now. Low pressure racing southeast out of the Great Lakes will transfer its energy to the Atlantic coast, spawning a new low-pressure center that will quickly intensify off the Eastern Seaboard Saturday night into Sunday.

The closer the low tracks to the coast, the more wind-driven snow may fall later Saturday into Sunday in New England. If the low intensifies farther offshore, more of the significant snow will remain offshore.

However, the last several rounds of model forecasts have locked in on a storm track close enough to bring heavy snow and strong winds to at least coastal New England. Here's our latest forecast timeline:

Friday: The developing low-pressure system will spread light snow and gusty winds through the Great Lakes. Blizzard conditions develop by Friday night along the Lake Superior shoreline of Upper Michigan.

Saturday: Light to moderate snow spreads from the eastern Great Lakes into the Northeast as the arctic front advances. Blustery west to northwest winds will accompany this snow. Snow is possible from the Appalachians and Virginia north to New York state and much of New England by afternoon (see map at left).

Saturday night: Heavy snow and increasing wind in New England, particularly near the coast from Maine to southeast Massachusetts. Snow and wind also farther west over the Hudson Valley, NYC metro, central/western New York, northern Pennsylvania, at least northern New Jersey. Farther south from southern New Jersey into the Mid-Atlantic states, snow will be limited but very strong north to northwest winds will develop, especially in coastal areas and around Chesapeake Bay.

Sunday: Heavy snow and high winds possible in much of New England, especially eastern sections where blizzard conditions are possible. Snow winds down farther west. Strong, gusty winds remain a concern across much of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic coast, even in areas where snow stops falling.

Sunday night: Snow may linger in Maine, but should taper off elsewhere. Significant blowing/drifting snow continues over much of New England.

Quoting 299. tampabaymatt:



Interesting set up here. Cold MDR but warm in the homegrown storms area. Also, the area of extremely warm water in the SW Caribbean that's been boiling for the last few years seems to have finally gotten back to normal. At least for now.
This may mean stronger, more intense, and more frequent hurricanes in the caribbean. Also, storms off the coast of africa and east of the lesser antilles wouldnt be too bad since water temperatures dont seem that cold at the moment, Also water temps in the gulf are pretty warm for this time of year, approaching 80 degrees in some spots.
Quoting LAbonbon:
The one thing JB's diatribe seems to be lacking is professionalism.

I don't follow the guy, but is this the norm?


Lol, there is zero professionalism from those who attack him. Just read below or yesterdays comments.
just shoot me now. At least I haven't used up much of my wood. If we lose power in this one this weekend, we're all toast.

Sincerely,

klaatuborada
located somewhere on Cape Cod beside a frozen tundra of a road under way too much snow
Quoting 324. jrweatherman:

I think Joe B should be a guest blogger on here although it would never happen because he brings reason and facts that the deniers will never accept.

What reason and facts? What are his good points?
Quoting 322. PensacolaDoug:

Instead of just slamming the guy why don't you debate the points he makes in it?


Quoting 323. LAbonbon:

The one thing JB's diatribe seems to be lacking is professionalism.

I don't follow the guy, but is this the norm?

Unfortunately, yes, it's the norm.
He generally has that attitude throughout, but it really is more intense when he discusses climate science. Over the years he has really dug into the trenches, coming up with very, um, interesting ways to explain away things. Most notable in my opinion is his claim that climate change violates the laws of thermodynamics (while at the same time arguing that climate changes "all the time"). This new one about there not being a correlation between increased temperatures and increased specific humidity, well it ranks up there pretty close. The equations involved are taught early in meteorology coursework; I had them in 100 and 200 level courses. This is just basic stuff upon which all other meteorology is based.
Record in Canceled Flights in Iceland
Iceland Review, by Eygló Svala Arnarsdóttir, February 13, 2015 11:37Updated: February 13, 2015 11:38
The weather has been unusually crazy in Iceland this winter, leaving commuter blizzard-struck on roads and grounding flights. A new record was set at domestic airline Air Iceland when 90 flights were canceled in the first nine days of February. ...

This is due to all your blizzards/Nor'Easters spitted out into the Atlantic, lol. Currently the jetstream didn't push them straight to Europe/British Isles but more to the north towards Iceland:

GFS global forecast animation of gusting winds. Click "Animation".

Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Instead of just slamming the guy why don't you debate the points he makes in it?
Why not 'debate the points' that JB brings up? Because basic physics aren't debatable. Because facts are facts, and aren't subject to the opinions of ideologues. Because those 'points' have been refuted and debunked many hundreds of times by actual climate scientists. Because, as Scott Lincoln said, JB demonstrates huge gaps in the fundamentals of meteorological knowledge, so it's highly doubtful he'd listen to anything posted in an Internet forum.

And so on.

JB and others are certainly free to live in a world where the ancient laws of thermodynamics do not apply. But climatologists have been predicting for decades that certain things would happen as the earth warmed. Now that those things are happening, all the screaming attempts at misdirection by people like JB simply won't and can't change a thing.
Quoting 302. NativeSun:

Hi Doug, did that come off the premium site? Good post, it gives us a chance to see the other side of the discussion on climate change, now if only some of the other bloggers on this site had one tenth the knowledge JB has on weather forecasting and climate change than maybe we could bring all the facts to the table on climate change, either for the good or bad depending on your view of the debate. I just love the weather we've had here in South Florida, cool nights, warm days, just need more rain. Wash maybe next year DC will be this years Boston, snow wise.
We had our version in 2010.I found my records for 13-2014 had about 57.5 inches as much as R.N.A in 2010.
Officials and people with travel plans from New York City to Boston and Albany, New York, should monitor the progress of this storm and prepare for disruptions to daily activities.
Lesser snow or a couple of snow showers will occur farther south in the mid-Atlantic.
AccuWeather.com will continue to provide updates on the storm and expected snowfall through this weekend.
Even where a small amount of snow falls, there will be extensive blowing and drifting of the snow on the ground as the storm progresses and in its wake.
Roads may get snow covered and very slippery in some areas. The frigid air moving in will render most inexpensive ice-melting compounds ineffective. Areas of slush and standing water will freeze.
Strong winds in the absence of heavy snow can be enough to cause significant airline delays. Gusts topping 45 mph are possible from Chicago and Detroit to Cleveland, Pittsburgh, New York City, Philadelphia, Baltimore and Washington, D.C.
According to AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Mark Mancuso, "Bands of intense lake-effect snow will develop close behind the storm, especially downwind of lakes Michigan, Huron and Ontario."
Travel could be difficult and dangerous along portions of the I-80/90 corridor in Pennsylvania, New York state, New Jersey and the Midwest due to areas of snow, strong crosswinds and bitterly cold air.
Whiteout conditions are possible in parts of northern Indiana, Michigan, southwestern Ontario and upstate New York.
Some lake-effect snow will also occur off Lake Erie even though this shallow water body is mostly frozen over.
Cleanup for homeowners and state DOT offices will be short-lived as another storm system may bring another round of snow early next week.
337. MahFL
Temp dropped to 32.7 F here in Orange Park, about 1.5 F colder than forecast.
But climatologists have been predicting for decades that certain things would happen as the earth warmed. Now that those things
are happening, all the screaming attempts at misdirection by people like JB

Lol. Just like the climatologists told us to expect more hurricanes and more intense hurricanes and since that didnt happen they are telling us to expect fewer hurricanes and those that form will either be weaker or stronger. They expect us to believe when they change their story reacting ti what is actually happening. Geesh...
Quoting 331. ScottLincoln:


Unfortunately, yes, it's the norm.
He generally has that attitude throughout, but it really is more intense when he discusses climate science. Over the years he has really dug into the trenches, coming up with very, um, interesting ways to explain away things. Most notable in my opinion is his claim that climate change violates the laws of thermodynamics (while at the same time arguing that climate changes "all the time"). This new one about there not being a correlation between increased temperatures and increased specific humidity, well it ranks up there pretty close. The equations involved are taught early in meteorology coursework; I had them in 100 and 200 level courses. This is just basic stuff upon which all other meteorology is based.

It just seems from the demeanor, tone, and accusatory statements that he is not engaging in a discussion or even a normal 'refutation' or disagreement with a fellow scientist. He's not trying to engage experts or scientists; if he were then the whole post would be more professional. They're clearly not his audience - he's aiming for the masses.
One point JB made in that diatribe was that because the Nor'easter tracked closer to the coast than the warm eddies it could not have picked up much moisture from them. I believe a Nor'easter is a low pressure center, in which the circulation is counter-clockwise, thus bringing the air being drawn in on the East side over ocean at some distance to the East and Southeast, depending on the strength of the low. Since this one was pretty strong, and the satellite photos showed it to be pulling clouds (moisture) from a good distance East and Southeast of the center, it seems that the inflow from that area passed over those warm anomalies and would probably have picked up quite a bit of moisture from them, then dumped it on Boston and environs. The warm anomalies are almost certainly due to increased warming of the Gulf Stream due most likely to AGW. So much for meteorology and climate.
I love this site. Friday morning at the fights, keep swinging guys!

Was going to golf today but a bit chilly. Highs in the 50's. Still winter here in Central Florida. Probably get out and play tomorrow afternoon. Cheers!!
Quoting 334. Neapolitan:

Why not 'debate the points' that JB brings up? Because basic physics aren't debatable. Because facts are facts, and aren't subject to the opinions of ideologues. Because those 'points' have been refuted and debunked many hundreds of times by actual climate scientists. Because, as Scott Lincoln said, JB demonstrates huge gaps in the fundamentals of meteorological knowledge, so it's highly doubtful he'd listen to anything posted in an Internet forum.

And so on.

JB and others are certainly free to live in a world where the ancient laws of thermodynamics do not apply. But climatologists have been predicting for decades that certain things would happen as the earth warmed. Now that those things are happening, all the screaming attempts at misdirection by people like JB simply won't and can't change a thing.
At the risk of sounding redundant , the climate is warming, that is a fact , and those who believe otherwise are either misinformed , in denial , or do not understand what is actually happening. Those who argue , and want an exact figure as to how much man made has affected the atmosphere will actually have to spend more time studying than debating. This subject often lands in the " agenda " column rather than moving towards a solution.
It could be as many models suggest it.

semantics is a great thing...."many".....is a great word....and depending on your definition of "many".....you can be correct in the statement....a more clarifying description would be...more models favor warm neutral, to neutral, to la nina conditions....that an el nino event
Quoting 304. StormTrackerScott:

4C's now beginning to show up. Very interesting to see yet another Strong Downwelling Kelvin Wave in the works.




Hey Scott, you will never give up on the EL NINO right? :-)
Quoting klaatuborada:
just shoot me now. At least I haven't used up much of my wood. If we lose power in this one this weekend, we're all toast.

Sincerely,

klaatuborada
located somewhere on Cape Cod beside a frozen tundra of a road under way too much snow
LOL. You poor guy. I guess the only good thing is that the models aren't good at predicting mesoscale details like the exact track of the low. It may go far enough offshore that you won't get a major storm. Or not. This is one of those times when we just have to sit back, see what happens, and adapt and overcome. At least you still have wood.
346. flsky
What's most telling to me is JB 's need to resort to childish name calling and slurs to try to make his point.

Quoting 334. Neapolitan:

Why not 'debate the points' that JB brings up? Because basic physics aren't debatable. Because facts are facts, and aren't subject to the opinions of ideologues. Because those 'points' have been refuted and debunked many hundreds of times by actual climate scientists. Because, as Scott Lincoln said, JB demonstrates huge gaps in the fundamentals of meteorological knowledge, so it's highly doubtful he'd listen to anything posted in an Internet forum.

And so on.

JB and others are certainly free to live in a world where the ancient laws of thermodynamics do not apply. But climatologists have been predicting for decades that certain things would happen as the earth warmed. Now that those things are happening, all the screaming attempts at misdirection by people like JB simply won't and can't change a thing.
another thing to look at...is how are the models trending.....a month and a half ago...some bloggers...were touting the CFSV2 which at long range....showed the 3.4 NINO region at a very impressive greater than 2 degree temp anomaly........and now...it'd dropped the anomaly more than 1.5 points....not to mention that its long range modelling has been shown to have as much as a two point error rate

Quoting 202. LAbonbon:


Don't tell me that's a shot from your house...'cause if it is then PlazaRed just might have some competition for best view :)
Actually, I live across the valley from where the other photo was taken, and right now, I don't have much of a view. However, a little over a year ago, I lived in the house behind my Montero SUV with the below view. At 4,500' elevation, it was about 1,200' higher than my current location just above the old town. I had to move out when my friend and landlord, a Louisiana agronomist who worked with sugar cane growers in Costa Rica and Panama, retired and started coming down for long stays.

They often call this valley the land of eternal spring and rainbows - and the description certainly fits.

All I did was post JB's reasons for not agreeing with Dr. Mann. let the chips fall where they fall.
And then of course the left comes out swinging hard. Read jB's column with an open mind. He's not the idiot that some people here make him out to be.
Quoting MahFL:
Temp dropped to 32.7 F here in Orange Park, about 1.5 F colder than forecast.
The low here was 26, three degrees warmer than last night's forecast and seven degrees warmer than the forecast four days ago. As usual, the GFS was right about the overall pattern but missed completely on timing and temperatures. Expecting the models to do any better with the upcoming storms is just not realistic.
This near where our other home is. very unusual to ever get that cold.


Issued by The National Weather Service Binghamton, NY
Fri, Feb 13, 2:39 am EST

... WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... ... WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL WATCH... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
* LOCATIONS... CENTRAL NEW YORK... SOUTHEAST NEW YORK..AND NORTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA.
* HAZARDS... DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES.
* WIND CHILL READINGS... AS LOW AS 25 TO 35 BELOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL AS LOW AS 30 TO 40 BELOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
* WINDS... 10 TO 15 MPH... WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH THROUGH 4 PM TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH... WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
Quoting 334. Neapolitan:

Why not 'debate the points' that JB brings up? Because basic physics aren't debatable. Because facts are facts, and aren't subject to the opinions of ideologues. Because those 'points' have been refuted and debunked many hundreds of times by actual climate scientists. Because, as Scott Lincoln said, JB demonstrates huge gaps in the fundamentals of meteorological knowledge, so it's highly doubtful he'd listen to anything posted in an Internet forum.

And so on.

JB and others are certainly free to live in a world where the ancient laws of thermodynamics do not apply. But climatologists have been predicting for decades that certain things would happen as the earth warmed. Now that those things are happening, all the screaming attempts at misdirection by people like JB simply won't and can't change a thing.

What I also find funny is how the entire argument has changed. It's like we are watching the goalposts move right before our eyes.

Yesterday, it was all about Michael Mann's "11C anomaly" in SSTs off the coast, and how that wasn't correct.

Then it was that maybe the anomaly was there, but it was just caused by a simple shift in the course of the Gulf Stream.

Now today it's about warmer water not being a driver in intensifying cold-core/extratropical cyclones (it actually can be, especially with nor'easters), and warmer air actually containing less moisture (the opposite of reality), and it stormed really bad in this one town in Pennsyvania once before in the past (so....?), and the usual quip about "climate always changing" (which has a small amount of truth but is something said by people who do not understand climate science).
Quoting 339. LAbonbon:


It just seems from the demeanor, tone, and accusatory statements that he is not engaging in a discussion or even a normal 'refutation' or disagreement with a fellow scientist. He's not trying to engage experts or scientists; if he were then the whole post would be more professional. They're clearly not his audience - he's aiming for the masses.

Now you're seeing what many other scientists have seen for many years. :)

He runs a business. He isn't aiming to be well-respected in science or to even push forward scientific ideas. He's aiming to drum up business.
Quoting 338. jrweatherman:
Lol. Just like the climatologists told us to expect more hurricanes and more intense hurricanes and since that didnt happen they are telling us to expect fewer hurricanes and those that form will either be weaker or stronger. They expect us to believe when they change their story reacting ti what is actually happening. Geesh...

Did you do much reading about tropical weather and climate change? Have you ever read the section on tropical storms in an IPCC report? It seems like you haven't.

You also have to keep in mind that many of these studies you are talking about have been released over the last 10-15 years. To suggest that they've changed their studies on climate based upon events over a 10-15 year period makes no sense whatsoever. When we are talking climate, we are not talking a handful of years but averages over pentades and decades, several decades into the future. It would be wise for you to take note of that fact.

Hurricanes and climate was always an area with much discussion and uncertainty, such that, when different approaches were used, different conclusions were reached. A few early studies suggested an increase in number and intensity. Then more studies came along saying that the number would probably not increase (due to increased wind shear) but that the strength probably would still increase. Although the confidence has generally increased in recent years, it is still an area with relatively low confidence when compared with other predictions (like the loss of sea and land ice, sea level rise, and increasing air temperatures near the surface). This is why you'll find IPCC reports reluctant to make any strong, specific predictions on tropical activity in their summary reports.


Very dry air in place in C FL. These dew points will continue dropping as we go through the day.
another model...the ecmwf....was erroneously linked as agreeing with the CFSV2....even though the model means was only at 0.8 not greater than the 2 degrees depicted in the CFSV2...and in it's january run....it's dropped even lower....i believe...that when they release the february run on their free pages in a few days....we'll see it even lower than january....

Do the models we use to track and forecast storms, such as the upcoming Blizzard, do they factor in the temperatures of any waters the storm will pass over? Or is that irrelevant?
and as you can see...with each passing three month cycle...the chances of an el nino event.........drop

Quoting 339. LAbonbon:


It just seems from the demeanor, tone, and accusatory statements that he is not engaging in a discussion or even a normal 'refutation' or disagreement with a fellow scientist. He's not trying to engage experts or scientists; if he were then the whole post would be more professional. They're clearly not his audience - he's aiming for the masses.
His aggression on some issues may draw a higher number of listeners....When ratings are poor , some get the ax...This is the norm where media is concerned. I still believe the J.B. knows weather , but I do not share his opinions on what is happening globally.
Quoting 349. PensacolaDoug:

All I did was post JB's reasons for not agreeing with Dr. Mann. let the chips fall where they fall.
And then of course the left comes out swinging hard. Read jB's column with an open mind. He's not the idiot that some people here make him out to be.

I think it's a mistake to assume it's solely the 'left' that agrees AGW is occurring. There are plenty of people in the 'center', and on the 'right' that also concur.

Please keep in mind that I am not agreeing necessarily that Juno is related to AGW...I'll wait for the proper study to be done and released. I just think the discussion can be done a lot more professionally. As that post was my first experience reading JB's thoughts, I have to say it was quite disappointing.
Quoting 358. ricderr:

and as you can see...with each passing three month cycle...the chances of an el nino event.........drop




The climatological line is pretty interesting. That seems to imply there is periodicity to El Nino. In other words, it seems to show that the probability of El Nino occurring increases the longer we go without one. This was a hotly debated point a month or so ago.
A period of very cold wind chills continues.

Bitterly cold arctic air has invaded Southern Ontario. The combination of very cold temperatures and light winds continue to produce wind chills of minus 30 to minus 35. Wind chills will slowly improve later this morning as temperatures rise under the strengthening mid February sun.

Environment Canada meteorologists will update alerts as required, so stay tuned to your local media or Weatheradio. Email reports of severe weather to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet with the hashtag #ONStorm
any one see the report on CNN yesterday about how some scientists are saying the southwestern states are heading into a serious decades long drought?
Quoting 363. LargoFl:

any one see the report on CNN yesterday about how some scientists are saying the southwestern states are heading into a serious decades long drought?


I read a similar article on USA Today. It stated that the 'Great Plains' area of the country was heading for a "megadrought" in 50 to 100 years. I had to laugh at that one.
Michael Mann wrote/tweeted no such thing. Bastardi is lying!

all it takes is to look at mann's twitter feed to see you're right....however....

just goes to show you.....people would rather believe a lie that reinforces their opinion...than face the reality of truth
here's another site with the story...southwestern states heading into a decades long Mega Drought........Link
Quoting 297. PensacolaDoug:

JB this morning
Lunacy over Cause of NE snow

February 13 06:07 AM

As we plumb the depths of winter cold the next week, we find the usual suspects are plumbing the depths of absurdity explaining what they did not see before, but are experts on now. Michael Mann tweeted that a warm eddy with temps 11c above normal "off Cape Cod" contributed ( if so now much) to the New England Blizzard, a sign of climate change. The fact is there seems to have been a warm eddy well out to the ese of Cape Cod

but the storm tracked well west of this. In fact if anything something like that is likely to have the opposite effect, perhaps enhancing convection away from the center and interrupting inflow. These warm eddys vary back and forth in the gulf stream, and there are times when there are compensating cold eddys in the same place. Meteorologically, it is an absurd argument as I said, convective feedback as we have all seen countless times can rob an area away from it. Climo wise, its absurd, since such things are a normal course of nature and not a sign of climate change

He basically was trying to use a method that is valid with warm core systems, IF THEY MOVE DIRECTLY OVER IT, and apply it to a baroclinic system whose strong gradient was WELL TO THE WEST. This is laughable. These Climate heroes make a big deal out of mets not being so called climate experts. Guess what. I had to take climo when I was at PSU and as all of you know, we base alot of our methodology on the past events. The problem with guys like Mann is they have no idea how to create a forecast where something is on the line that can be measured. Lets see him forecast for year, perhaps he would then understand that some of his statements are completely out of touch with reality



The horizontal temp gradient with these big snowmakers have been enhanced because the deviation from normal is so much colder. It is the sharp slope in temps that forces the kind of upward motion that leads to heavy precip and the sharpest is associated with the -8C isotherm. Followers of me over the years remember the lesson I relayed on the Magic chart snow forecast method.. where you add the forecasted upward motion at 6 hour intervals up and if its -8C, that is your snow accumulation. The most vivid example was the Feb 2006 storm, where I got into such a fight with my good friend Bernie Rayno over maps I was supposed to use for 6-12 inches of snow when I had publicly been mongering for 1-2 feet on my column for NYC because of this method, I refused to on John Kasichs Heartland show on the Saturday Night of the Storm ( another side note, it was when Rocky 6 was being filmed and the snow scenes were from that in that movie) .

I was on Cavuto yesterday because of the weather channel. They put on 2 climatologists and in typical propaganda fashion linked this to "climate change". Since we all know the climate is in a constant state of change, this is like linking air to breathing. Except it would be them saying the source of the air is a magic fairy that is now in charge of re-supplying it.

Both of these examples are stunningly ignorant. We can argue mythical Utopian ( can never be proved) theory all we want. But what both these examples lack is the fact these people have no real world experience. So Boston gets 23 inches of snow out of 1.10 and most of this blitz in New England has been 20-25 to 1. They blame it on extra water vapor because of warming. First of all they didnt bother to look that mixing ratios were BELOW NORMAL during all this


and Precipitable water was near normal ( actually below all around except well to the east)


The words of George Costanza.. its only a lie if you believe it.. Well they cant believe it, because they has never looked, so technically none of this is lying, its ignorance.



So these planet saving climatic heroes we are all supposed to worship need to answer this question.. if these events are a sign of warming with the 20 to 1 ratios ( there is no study saying there is more water vapor in the air. The warm air holds more water argument is completely false. WARM AIR DOES NOT "HOLD WATER" quite the opposite precipitation processes are slower when a column is warmer, its why it snows at a drop of a pin if its cold, but takes much more to create a shower on a hot summer day than a flurry on a cold winter day) then how do you explain the 5 to 1 50 inch plus event in SE pa in March 1958. OVER 10 INCHES OF LIQUID WITH A 50 INCH PLUS STORM AT MORGANTOWN PA

There is that year again, that "crazy" winter Namias studied of 57-58, one of the end game analogs we have jumped on. Gee imagine that a true example of "climate change" OVER 50 YEARS AGO

It is getting nuttier by the day out there, but such things are not only easily refuted, but exposes them for what they are, agenda driven. That they come into my house ( the weather and yes climate) and defile it the way we do, is something that one can not turn their back on when confronted with it.

They should get a real job, like actually trying to forecast. Like the fan in the stands that thinks he can play, they would be carted off the field in no time



ciao for now




Garbage. The storm does not have to track over the positive SST anomalies to dynamically induce a drop in sea level pressure. Recent case studies of Mid-Latitude cyclones suggests that the SST perturbations play a greater role in increasing storm intensity, rather than the SST gradients. During the later stages of a Mid-Latitude cyclone, the moisture availability is more important to the strength of the storm rather than the fronts, in reference to the SSTs influence on either feature. The fact that the storm track west of the SST anomalies means that the warm conveyor belt associated with the system tracked over the positive SST perturbations which increases the latent heat flux in the warm sector. This feeds back into the storm, with a decrease in buoyancy and saturation vapor pressure, decreasing the sea level pressure of the storm.

James F. Booth, LuAnne Thompson, Jérôme Patoux, and Kathryn A. Kelly, 2012: Sensitivity of Midlatitude Storm Intensification to Perturbations in the Sea Surface Temperature near the Gulf Stream. Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 1241–1256.

Paul R. Field and Robert Wood, 2007: Precipitation and Cloud Structure in Midlatitude Cyclones. J. Climate, 20, 233–254.
doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3998.1

Giordani, H., and G. Caniaux, 2001: Sensitivity of cyclogenesis to sea surface temperature in the northwestern Atlantic. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 1273–1295.
One prediction i know jb did not make was cat five hurricanes destroying the gulf coast for years to come.no major in ten years.
The climatological line is pretty interesting. That seems to imply there is periodicity to El Nino. In other words, it seems to show that the probability of El Nino occurring increases the longer we go without one. This was a hotly debated point a month or so ago.

what the climatology points to...is that we are more likely to enter an el nino event.....during the winter months than any other time of the year....thus is why it received its name
Quoting 340. CaneFreeCR:

One point JB made in that diatribe was that because the Nor'easter tracked closer to the coast than the warm eddies it could not have picked up much moisture from them. I believe a Nor'easter is a low pressure center, in which the circulation is counter-clockwise, thus bringing the air being drawn in on the East side over ocean at some distance to the East and Southeast, depending on the strength of the low. Since this one was pretty strong, and the satellite photos showed it to be pulling clouds (moisture) from a good distance East and Southeast of the center, it seems that the inflow from that area passed over those warm anomalies and would probably have picked up quite a bit of moisture from them, then dumped it on Boston and environs.


That was another oddity in his post. He said that Michael Mann was making a mistake and assuming that this system was behaving like a warm-core system, but I highly doubt that. With warm-core systems they tend to gain strength when the center of circulation is over the warmer water. In contrast, extratropical systems get their energy from temperature differences. If the temperature over land is near what is typical for these systems, but the sea surface temperatures adjacent to shore are up to 10C warmer than climatology, then that temperature gradient is greater than normal and favors strengthening. The low wasn't directly over this warm SST anomaly, but was near the coast. This warmer water colder land gradient is what is often cited as the reason for the strength of nor'easters.
That predection was made on some other global warming site.
Quoting 364. tampabaymatt:



I read a similar article on USA Today. It stated that the 'Great Plains' area of the country was heading for a "megadrought" in 50 to 100 years. I had to laugh at that one.
I dunno..if what they are saying comes true..is part of this WHY..florida has been having a wet..err DRY season?..the moisture has to go somewhere else if it isn't going into the southwest doesn't it?
Quoting 351. Grothar:

This near where our other home is. very unusual to ever get that cold.


Issued by The National Weather Service Binghamton, NY
Fri, Feb 13, 2:39 am EST

... WIND CHILL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... ... WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A WIND CHILL WATCH... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
* LOCATIONS... CENTRAL NEW YORK... SOUTHEAST NEW YORK..AND NORTHERN TIER OF PENNSYLVANIA.
* HAZARDS... DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES.
* WIND CHILL READINGS... AS LOW AS 25 TO 35 BELOW THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL AS LOW AS 30 TO 40 BELOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
* WINDS... 10 TO 15 MPH... WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH THROUGH 4 PM TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH... WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

That is COLD. Did you read barbamz's post about Iceland's weather and canceled flights? I followed the link, and there were additional links below the article. One was about 300 people taking shelter in a gas station due to weather, and another was about a school bus full of kids that had to overnight on the bus. I was wondering how cold it got on that bus, and if they had enough fuel to keep the heat going all night...growing up in New England I remember many bus rides that were really frigid...the premium seats were the ones on top of and right next to the heaters.
Quoting 368. help4u:

One prediction i know jb did not make was cat five hurricanes destroying the gulf coast for years to come.no major in ten years.
this is 2015 gonna be a whole new kind of beast

One prediction i know jb did not make was cat five hurricanes destroying the gulf coast for years to come.no major in ten years.


now help....when you post biblical references..and announce yourself as a christian...why would you then post a lie such as that?.......i know you can't...but before i truly call you out....can you show us please where any climate scientist made that claim?
Quoting ricderr:
and as you can see...with each passing three month cycle...the chances of an el nino event.........drop



Shhhhhh. Don't tell Jeff, Aka Scott.
Quoting 369. ricderr:

The climatological line is pretty interesting. That seems to imply there is periodicity to El Nino. In other words, it seems to show that the probability of El Nino occurring increases the longer we go without one. This was a hotly debated point a month or so ago.

what the climatology points to...is that we are more likely to enter an el nino event.....during the winter months than any other time of the year....thus is why it received its name


Huh? The line increases during the summer months.
Quoting 365. ricderr:

Michael Mann wrote/tweeted no such thing. Bastardi is lying!

all it takes is to look at mann's twitter feed to see you're right....however....

just goes to show you.....people would rather believe a lie that reinforces their opinion...than face the reality of truth
The crux of countless problems...So much said in a short statement..Many pluses.
Quoting 349. PensacolaDoug:

All I did was post JB's reasons for not agreeing with Dr. Mann. let the chips fall where they fall.
And then of course the left comes out swinging hard. Read jB's column with an open mind. He's not the idiot that some people here make him out to be.


I agree that JB is not an idiot and some people do treat him that way, although some people here also only do so sarcastically, not in a mean way as well.

With that said, while JB is not an idiot, he does seem to allow his political views and other things to keep him stubborn about climate change. Smart people have just as much capacity to believe ridiculous things as anyone else even if they have all the knowledge to suggest otherwise. That's the weird thing about human nature. It's really all a matter of what leaves the strongest impression on your mind. It seems certain political views keep JB from avoiding some apparent scientific realities of climate change. Though I could be wrong, just my assessment.
Quoting help4u:
That predection was made on some other global warming site.


Bingo!
Quoting 349. PensacolaDoug:

All I did was post JB's reasons for not agreeing with Dr. Mann. let the chips fall where they fall. [snipped irrelevant and inaccurate political quip] Read jB's column with an open mind. He's not the idiot that some people here make him out to be.

That's just it. The "chips fall" on the side of Bastardi being full of baloney on climate science, yet again.

I must, yet again, suggest that for your sake you choose better sources of scientific information.
382. jpsb
Quoting 338. jrweatherman:

But climatologists have been predicting for decades that certain things would happen as the earth warmed.


You might also like



A senior environmental official at the United Nations, Noel Brown, says entire nations could be wiped off the face of the earth by rising sea levels if global warming is not reversed by the year 2000.
San Jose Mercury News 30 Jun 1989




By the year 2000 the United Kingdom will be simply a small group of impoverished islands, inhabited by some 70 million hungry people … If I were a gambler, I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000.”
Paul Ehrlich, Speech at British Institute For Biology, September 1971.





“[By] 1995, the greenhouse effect would be desolating the heartlands of North America and Eurasia with horrific drought, causing crop failures and food riots…[By 1996] The Platte River of Nebraska would be dry, while a continent-wide black blizzard of prairie topsoil will stop traffic on interstates, strip paint from houses and shut down computers.”
Michael Oppenheimer, published in “Dead Heat,” St. Martin’s Press, 1990




========================================


A change in the North Atlantic current could lead to the end of the soggy British summers, researchers have claimed….. A decline in its speed, however, could cool the North Atlantic and put an end to the pattern, bringing colder but drier summer weather to Britain in future, experts explained.
The Telegraph (UK) 19 Jan 2014

Extreme summer rainfall may become more frequent in the UK due to climate change, according to new research led by the Met Office in collaboration with Newcastle University.
Met Office press release 2 Jun 2014

========================================

“Unfortunately, it’s just getting too hot for the Scottish ski industry.”

David Viner, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, 14 Feb 2004


As snow conditions have improved in Scotland in recent years, so have the facilities in its ski centres. We round up what they offer, from the best pistes to where to stay and the best stop for a nice post-piste cake. (Note: pistes = a marked ski run)

http://www.theguardian.com/travel/2014/feb/02/ski ing-scotland-guide-to-five-ski-resorts

========================================

The salt content of the ocean is on the decline, a sign of potentially worrisome consequences that scientists can’t accurately predict. Since the late 1960s, much of the North Atlantic Ocean has become less salty, in part due to increases in fresh water runoff induced by global warming, scientists say.
www.livescience.com, 29 Jun 2005

Global warming is making the sea more salty, according to new research that demonstrates the massive shifts in natural systems triggered by climate change.
Experts at the UK Met Office and Reading University say warmer temperatures over the Atlantic Ocean have significantly increased evaporation and reduced rainfall across a giant stretch of water from Africa to the Carribean in recent years. The change concentrates salt in the water left behind.
The Guardian, 27 Oct 2008

========================================

The vast looping system of air currents that fuels Pacific trade winds and climate from South America to South-East Asia may be another victim of climate change, according to scientists. The system has weakened by 3.5 per cent over the past 140 years and the culprit is probably human-induced climate change, scientists report in today’s issue of the journal Nature.
ABC (Australia) News 5 May 2006 “Global warming weakens air currents”



Stronger than normal trade winds in the central Pacific are the main cause of a 13-year halt in global surface temperatures increases, an Australian study reveals.The authors reject the study gives impetus to climate change deniers and instead suggest that when the winds ease, global warming will accelerate rapidly.
ABC Science (Australia) 10 Feb 2014 “Warming slowdown caused by Pacific winds”

========================================

The eastern half of Antarctica is gaining weight, more than 45 billion tons a year as snow and ice pile up, according to a new scientific study. ”It’s been long predicted by climate models,” said Dr. Curt H. Davis, a professor of electrical and computer engineering at the University of Missouri and the lead author of a paper that was published on the Web site of the journal Science yesterday. ”This is the first observational evidence.”
New York Times, 20 May 2005

From 2010 to 2013, West Antarctica, East Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula lost 134 billion, 3 billion and 23 billion tonnes of ice each year respectively. Dr Malcolm Macmillan from Leeds University, who was the lead author of the study, said the area has long been identified as the most vulnerable to changes in climate and assessments suggest its glaciers may have passed a point of irreversible retreat.
The Independent (UK) 19 May 2014



========================================






please notice one important word in the following image....WORLDWIDE.....then note how one blogger...can change that to GULF.....and thus try to disprove all of climate change....this is what we are dealing with....


Quoting 368. help4u:

One prediction i know jb did not make was cat five hurricanes destroying the gulf coast for years to come.no major in ten years.
Quoting 371. help4u:

That predection was made on some other global warming site.

Source? Citation?
Quoting 384. washingtonian115:




nice chops
Guys, if you want to relax a bit, come over to Mainz at this time (even sun came out some minutes ago): Video was recorded yesterday on "Old Wive's Carnival Day" just some steps away from my place (next couple of nights won't be calm and recreative right now, though ;-)



Have a nice day, everyone ...
Huh? The line increases during the summer months.


yes it does....until it reaches its apex in the winter months....
Shhhhhh. Don't tell Jeff, Aka Scott.


hey...even if i did...he wouldn't believe it....which makes it all the merrier
Michael Ventrice
%u200FMJVentrice
For the first time since last Spring, the Southern Oscillation Index is finally going to rise into positive territory.
It suggests that the El Nino forcing we have been under for months has weakened.
Quoting 366. LargoFl:

here's another site with the story...southwestern states heading into a decades long Mega Drought........Link

Largo - I haven't been to that site before, but I think it's worth a re-visit. Not only was it a decent article, but the comments on that article are priceless...from the guy who wants to call the cops on his neighbors for watering their lawn, to the 'rock-ribbed libertarian with offended sensibilities'. Thanks for the link :D
Quoting 373. LAbonbon:


That is COLD. Did you read barbamz's post about Iceland's weather and canceled flights? I followed the link, and there were additional links below the article. One was about 300 people taking shelter in a gas station due to weather, and another was about a school bus full of kids that had to overnight on the bus. I was wondering how cold it got on that bus, and if they had enough fuel to keep the heat going all night...growing up in New England I remember many bus rides that were really frigid...the premium seats were the ones on top of and right next to the heaters.



Yes, I did read it. As some of you know, I lived in both Iceland and Greenland and up to a few years ago, visited them both quite a bit. I would often send letters or postcards to some of you on here when I was on my little visits. I always found Iceland a little milder than Greenland. I do remember reading a few years ago about a change in the jet stream that might cause extreme cold temperatures in the NE US and in Europe.
Quoting 385. ScottLincoln:


Source? Citation?


it's interesting that you always demand others to provide sources, yet you never do so. I guess we should all take what you say as fact, while everyone else's points must be sourced.
394. jpsb
Quoting 340. CaneFreeCR:

it seems that the inflow from that area passed over those warm anomalies and would probably have picked up quite a bit of moisture from them



Minor nitpick, the Gulf Stream ALWAYS flows off the US East Coast so it is not an anomaly, it's the Gulf Stream and it has been there for millions of years.
Good Morning. Just adding the point to the issue on GW, and the Atlantic Season, that Gray & Klotzbach always have the statement in their yearly CSU outlooks for the last several years that they do not have any data (at this point) that climate change is having a discernable impact of the Atlantic Hurricane season. This is presently the case but may change in the coming decades if we see persistent variations from the climatalogical "norm" for the Atlantic from the past few decades.

Just my personal opinion but given the fact that the Pacific Basin is the largest ocean on Earth, which also has the largest number of tropical storms in any given year in both hemispheres, I am thinking that we may see the impacts of climate change, as related to tropical storms, manifest in that basin earlier than on the Atlantic side of things.......The recent hyperactivity on the E-Pac side of the equation has been an interesting watch as well the past few years............Time will tell.
nearing peak melt out in deep deep south should start gaining soon

Quoting 361. tampabaymatt:



The climatological line is pretty interesting. That seems to imply there is periodicity to El Nino. In other words, it seems to show that the probability of El Nino occurring increases the longer we go without one. This was a hotly debated point a month or so ago.

Not exactly. The climatology line just shows that El Nino/La Nina conditions are relatively more favored during the times the line is higher. That is, those conditions tend to occur in northern hemisphere Fall/Winter more often than Spring/Summer.

To look for periodicity, you couldn't look at a monthly climatology plot. You would need to look at the entire record as a whole. Although there is an average recurrence interval to El Nino/El Nino events, their occurrence tends to be erratic and hard to predict. This is a similar fallacy to the one people make when discussing average recurrence intervals between earthquakes, and claiming that we are "overdue" for a quake just because we've exceeded the ARI. ENSO conditions (and earthquakes) don't just happen because our arbitrary time variables say so, they occur because of underlying physical reasons - unfortunately we don't always have enough data or scientific understanding to turn that into a useful prediction.
Quoting 363. LargoFl:

any one see the report on CNN yesterday about how some scientists are saying the southwestern states are heading into a serious decades long drought?


Yes, I posted the whole article from Live Science yesterday. Very interesting.
399. jpsb
Quoting 342. hydrus:

At the risk of sounding redundant , the climate is warming, that is a fact , and those who believe otherwise are either misinformed , in denial , or do not understand what is actually happening. Those who argue , and want an exact figure as to how much man made has affected the atmosphere will actually have to spend more time studying than debating. This subject often lands in the " agenda " column rather than moving towards a solution.


The debate is over the amount of warming and the cause of the warming. No serious person could claim that the climate has not warmed recently.
HEY!!!!!!!!!

i AM TRYING TO FINally get some snow in NW Georgia and all you can do is argue GLOBAL WARMING?????

Use that energy to keep that low pressure from going to far South in the Gulf MONDAY AND TUESDAY and not throwing the moisture UP HERE!!!

:-)
399.85


Atmospheric CO2 for January 2015
Preliminary monthly average as of February 4, 2015

When we soon blow past 400ppm CO2, no one alive will ever see that number lower, ever.


Food to chew.
Quoting 397. ScottLincoln:


Not exactly. The climatology line just shows that El Nino/La Nina conditions are relatively more favored during the times the line is higher. That is, those conditions tend to occur in northern hemisphere Fall/Winter more often than Spring/Summer.

To look for periodicity, you couldn't look at a monthly climatology plot. You would need to look at the entire record as a whole. Although there is an average recurrence interval to El Nino/El Nino events, their occurrence tends to be erratic and hard to predict. This is a similar fallacy to the one people make when discussing average recurrence intervals between earthquakes, and claiming that we are "overdue" for a quake just because we've exceeded the ARI. ENSO conditions (and earthquakes) don't just happen because our arbitrary time variables say so, they occur because of underlying physical reasons - unfortunately we don't always have enough data or scientific understanding to turn that into a useful prediction.

Source? Citation?
@382

Paul Ehrlich's prediction had nothing to do with climate change. He was predicting societal collapse due to overpopulation.

In 1968, Paul R. Ehrlich wrote The Population Bomb and declared that the battle to feed humanity had been lost and that there would be a major food shortage in the US. “In the 1970s … hundreds of millions are going to starve to death,” and by the 1980s most of the world’s important resources would be depleted. He forecast that 65 million Americans would die of starvation between 1980-1989 and that by 1999, the US population would decline to 22.6 million. The problems in the US would be relatively minor compared to those in the rest of the world. (Ehrlich, Paul R. The Population Bomb. New York, Ballantine Books, 1968.) New Scientist magazine underscored his speech in an editorial titled “In Praise of Prophets.”
Quoting 399. jpsb:



The debate is over the amount of warming and the cause of the warming. No serious person could claim that the climate has not warmed recently.



There is NO debate, only Gobbally Goop from folks who have NEVER posted real Science.

Science is above the din of phools,,easily.



We just recorded the warmest year ever.

And without a full blown El Nino.


Chew on dat,....



Fresca?
Also noting that there is an Atlantic season correlation between the yearly SAL layer and Atlantic storms. As a SAL free environment, the Pacific Basin is probably a better "test bed" for the impact of climate change on tropical storms in the coming decades
xx/xx/xx
Quoting 393. tampabaymatt:



it's interesting that you always demand others to provide sources, yet you never do so. I guess we should all take what you say as fact, while everyone else's points must be sourced.

You must not read my posts often at all, as I cite sources frequently, and take care to write things in particular way as to indicate the line of reasoning that was used.

It's also important to note that not all claims are created equal. Claims that are consistent with a widely held viewpoint typically are not sourced as often in science (because there is no way to cite all of the different sources reaching the conclusion) but new and profound claims almost always require citation. For example, if one is going to say something to the effect of "some site claimed that multiple category 5 hurricanes are going to ravage the gulf coast" then it might be wise to cite that source.

Much of this will become much more clear when you get further into your studies of meteorology, but it might be wise to start practicing these concepts now. The field is over-saturated, and it is getting harder to set one's self apart. You may not want to start off your college career in the uphill battle of trying to catch up on these concepts; you have the opportunity before you at present to be humble and learn.
Globally, we warm...not Basin to Basin.

The Dust/SAL is a geographic Atlantic situation....


We call it Africa.


410. etxwx
Some midmorning reading:
This is from a recent Marketplace segment and it's an easy to understand explanation of how "adapting" to rising sea levels in Florida will be very difficult:
Rising seas threaten South Florida's drinking water

Water, water everywhere...
The market doesn't charge for Florida's climate risk

(Hays County TX) Water Fight Portends Battles to Come

Texas Justices Skirt Underground Trespassing Question

And a little sunshine...
Texas solar jobs increasing
"ever" or over the past 150 years or so. Big difference. Chewed on it and spit it out.
412. jpsb
Quoting 352. ScottLincoln:


What I also find funny is how the entire argument has changed. It's like we are watching the goalposts move right before our eyes.

Yesterday, it was all about Michael Mann's "11C anomaly" in SSTs off the coast, and how that wasn't correct.



Since when is the Gulf Stream and anomaly? There must be something that I am missing here. According to Wiki

The Gulf Stream, together with its northern extension towards Europe, the North Atlantic Drift, is a powerful, warm, and swift Atlantic ocean current that originates at the tip of Florida, and follows the eastern coastlines of the United States and Newfoundland before crossing the Atlantic Ocean.

See it is a "powerful, warm, and swift Atlantic ocean current" and it even has an entry in Wiki. So someone please explain to me how a millions of years old ocean current is an anomaly. TIA
Quoting 408. ScottLincoln:


You must not read my posts often at all, as I cite sources frequently, and take care to write things in particular way as to indicate the line of reasoning that was used.

It's also important to note that not all claims are created equal. Claims that are consistent with a widely held viewpoint typically are not sourced as often in science (because there is no way to cite all of the different sources reaching the conclusion) but new and profound claims almost always require citation. For example, if one is going to say something to the effect of "some site claimed that multiple category 5 hurricanes are going to ravage the gulf coast" then it might be wise to cite that source.

Much of this will become much more clear when you get further into your studies of meteorology, but it might be wise to start practicing these concepts now. The field is over-saturated, and it is getting harder to set one's self apart. You may not want to start off your college career in the uphill battle of trying to catch up on these concepts; you have the opportunity before you at present to be humble and learn.


Not sure where you came up with all of these assumptions about me, but none of them are correct. So, while trying to "educate" me, you're making yourself look like the one that needs to be educated.
Quoting 409. Patrap:

Globally, we warm...not Basin to Basin.

The Dust/SAL is a geographic Atlantic situation....


We call it Africa.





I agree; one issue to look at in the coming decades is how climate change will impact rainfall in the Sahel leading up the the Atlantic Season...........Again, time will tell.
Quoting 402. tampabaymatt:


Source? Citation?

You could start by doing a web search for "calculating periodicity."

If you want to find ways to estimate the chance of an event occurring (for example, the chance of a minor El Nino in any given year) you will want to look up frequency analysis.

Good luck!
Police issue warrant for Punxsutawney Phil's arrest


KUSA – A storm has dumped almost two feet of snow on parts of the Northeast, and one New Hampshire Police Department has taken a stand… by issuing a warrant for Punxsutawney Phil's arrest.

"We have received several complaints from the public that this little varmint is held up in a hole, warm and toasty," the Merrimack Police Department wrote in a Facebook post. "He told several people that winter would last six more weeks, however he failed to disclose that it would consist of mountains of snow!

"If you see him, do not approach him, as he is armed and dangerous. Call Merrimack Police – we will certainly take him into custody!"

Last Monday, the wannabe meteorologist saw his shadow, portending six more weeks of winter.

This isn't the first time Phil has gotten in trouble with his predictions. In 2013, Phil forecast an early spring – but instead, bitter cold and snow overtook much of the U.S., prompting the prosecuting attorney of Butler County, Ohio to seek the death penalty for this delightful groundhog.

And while folks in Colorado might be scoffing at these claims of a late winter – what with our onslaught of sunny, 76-degree days – it makes sense that people out East are a little more testy about Phil and his prediction


Link
Tampabaymatt, you got put in timeout by the principle.
Quoting 415. ScottLincoln:


You could start by doing a web search for "calculating periodicity."

If you want to find ways to estimate the chance of an event occurring (for example, the chance of a minor El Nino in any given year) you will want to look up frequency analysis.

Good luck!


No, I was asking you to provide your source. But, in your typical arrogant way, you deflect the chance to do so. It's interesting that you advise others to be "humble and learn", while you come on this site each day and instigate arguments with people who have an opinion that differs from yours.
Quoting 412. jpsb:



Since when is the Gulf Stream and anomaly? There must be something that I am missing here. According to Wiki

The Gulf Stream, together with its northern extension towards Europe, the North Atlantic Drift, is a powerful, warm, and swift Atlantic ocean current that originates at the tip of Florida, and follows the eastern coastlines of the United States and Newfoundland before crossing the Atlantic Ocean.

See it is a "powerful, warm, and swift Atlantic ocean current" and it even has an entry in Wiki. So someone please explain to me how a millions of years old ocean current is an anomaly. TIA


Just because it is a warm current doesn't mean it cannot be anomalously warm.
Quoting 417. jrweatherman:

Tampabaymatt, you got put in timeout by the principle.


How so?
Quoting 412. jpsb:



Since when is the Gulf Stream and anomaly? There must be something that I am missing here. According to Wiki

The Gulf Stream, together with its northern extension towards Europe, the North Atlantic Drift, is a powerful, warm, and swift Atlantic ocean current that originates at the tip of Florida, and follows the eastern coastlines of the United States and Newfoundland before crossing the Atlantic Ocean.

See it is a "powerful, warm, and swift Atlantic ocean current" and it even has an entry in Wiki. So someone please explain to me how a millions of years old ocean current is an anomaly. TIA



Shakes head and giggles,

Anomaly, is the, er, Key werd dere.
Quoting 412. jpsb:



Since when is the Gulf Stream and anomaly? There must be something that I am missing here. According to Wiki

The Gulf Stream, together with its northern extension towards Europe, the North Atlantic Drift, is a powerful, warm, and swift Atlantic ocean current that originates at the tip of Florida, and follows the eastern coastlines of the United States and Newfoundland before crossing the Atlantic Ocean.

See it is a "powerful, warm, and swift Atlantic ocean current" and it even has an entry in Wiki. So someone please explain to me how a millions of years old ocean current is an anomaly. TIA

Not one person ever said "the gulf stream is an anomaly." That's pure bunk. I think you might have a misunderstanding of what an anomaly is.

If it wasn't for your reputation of frequently misunderstanding this topic, twisting peoples' words, and distracting people with irrelevant graphics, I'd assume it was just an honest mistake.
GOM Sea Height Anomalies

Quoting 410. etxwx:

Some midmorning reading:
This is from a recent Marketplace segment and it's an easy to understand explanation of how "adapting" to rising sea levels in Florida will be very difficult:
Rising seas threaten South Florida's drinking water

Water, water everywhere...
The market doesn't charge for Florida's climate risk

(Hays County TX) Water Fight Portends Battles to Come

Texas Justices Skirt Underground Trespassing Question

And a little sunshine...
Texas solar jobs increasing

Very nice to see your posts and links again :)
GOM SST Loop





Notwithstanding the interesting conversation this morning, an early Happy Valentine's Day for tomorrow, and don't forget your loved ones; taking the Wife out tomorrow to a nice dinner and sent my Momma some roses; She should be calling me later today when they are delivered this afternoon............................. :)
Strong, the pompous is here today.

~Yoda, 1776

The weather will happen whether we like it or not. Big rocks go in first, people, before the sand.
Atlantic Sea Height Anomalies

Quoting 418. tampabaymatt:



No, I was asking you to provide your source. But, in your typical arrogant way, you deflect the chance to do so.

It's odd that you say that in a post that quotes me providing you a way to find the information that you seek.

As someone who understands what is necessary to look for periodicity in data, understands the concepts of average recurrence interval, and has personally performed frequency analysis, I was letting you know that you were making conclusions from data that you simply cannot make. You appeared to not believe my word, so I showed you a way that you can educate yourself on the concept.

It will soon reach a point where people will no longer give you the benefit of the doubt. They will start to see you as acting ignorant and rude purposefully and with malice. That will also not bode well for your career in meteorology. I can tell you from personal experience - your professors simply won't tolerate it.
JB is a sad example of why self parody is best left to the professionals
Quoting LargoFl:
here's another site with the story...southwestern states heading into a decades long Mega Drought........Link
I don't know why this study is suddenly springing into public view. It was published almost 2 years ago. The results of this one study contradict all the other high resolution climate models. The study has been cited exactly twice. I'd like to see some more confirmation of this study before we start pushing panic buttons.
It appears that Joe Bastardi has been caught flat-out lying to his readers.
Quoting 418. tampabaymatt:



No, I was asking you to provide your source. But, in your typical arrogant way, you deflect the chance to do so. It's interesting that you advise others to be "humble and learn", while you come on this site each day and instigate arguments with people who have an opinion that differs from yours.


It's not a different opinion you have, it's a different, and wrong, understanding of science.
Quoting 432. Xandra:

It appears that Joe Bastardi has been caught flat-out lying to his readers.


Again,...
Quoting 432. Xandra:

It appears that Joe Bastardi has been caught flat-out lying to his readers.


Was he in that chopper with Brian Williams?
Quoting 429. ScottLincoln:


It's odd that you say that in a post that quotes me providing you a way to find the information that you seek.

As someone who understands what is necessary to look for periodicity in data, understands the concepts of average recurrence interval, and has personally performed frequency analysis, I was letting you know that you were making conclusions from data that you simply cannot make. You appeared to not believe my word, so I showed you a way that you can educate yourself on the concept.

It will soon reach a point where people will no longer give you the benefit of the doubt. They will start to see you as acting ignorant and rude purposefully and with malice. That will also not bode well for your career in meteorology. I can tell you from personal experience - your professors simply won't tolerate it.


Again, your assumptions that I'm a college student majoring in meteorology are incorrect. I have never claimed either points on this blog, so deciding to make up things about me to substantiate your flawed opinions is not the best move on your part.

Here's my point. You seem to get frustrated when people on this blog make claims and don't back them up with sources, yet you do this all the time. So, we're supposed to just believe that you know what you're talking about? Okay, but then you can't hold people to a different standard. You come off as arrogant, rude, and a know-it-all on this blog. I really could care less, but you seem to get a kick out of trying to point flaws in my comments. I don't claim to be an expert on anything. I come here because I enjoy the weather and want to learn. I really have no interest in going back and forth with you, so unless you can offer your opinions to me in a constructive, positive way, please just stop. I have a pet peeve for people that act like they are experts in everything and have nothing else to learn. Despite how smart you may be, you can always learn something new from all sorts of people.
437. jpsb
Quoting 396. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

nearing peak melt out in deep deep south should start gaining soon




Yes and ice extent is down a little from last year. I doubt we will see another year for Antarctic ice extent like 2014. 2014 was crazy! FYI USCG Polar Star will be trying to rescue a fishing ship stuck in Antarctic is today/tomorrow. Hope they can free the ship before the ice starts to grow. I believe Polar Star is our most capable ice breaker (10 feet).
Quoting 433. SeriouslySushi:



It's not a different opinion you have, it's a different, and wrong, understanding of science.


What is wrong about my understanding of science? Please explain.
you can always learn something new from all sorts of people.



O da ironies, ....
Because everyone loves food
Quoting ScottLincoln:

It's odd that you say that in a post that quotes me providing you a way to find the information that you seek.

As someone who understands what is necessary to look for periodicity in data, understands the concepts of average recurrence interval, and has personally performed frequency analysis, I was letting you know that you were making conclusions from data that you simply cannot make. You appeared to not believe my word, so I showed you a way that you can educate yourself on the concept.

It will soon reach a point where people will no longer give you the benefit of the doubt. They will start to see you as acting ignorant and rude purposefully and with malice. That will also not bode well for your career in meteorology. I can tell you from personal experience - your professors simply won't tolerate it.
What makes you think he's seeking a career in meteorology? He clearly said that assumption was wrong in a previous post (#413).
GFS 12z has shifted quite a bit west at 12z compared to 6z with the storm for next week. Good spot to be in this far out. Snow in the South to the Mid-Atlantic.
The trolls are reelin' them in. Gonna need a bigger keep net.
444. bwi
Quoting 442. Drakoen:

GFS 12z has shifted quite a bit west at 12z compared to 6z with the storm for next week. Good spot to be in this far out. Snow in the South to the Mid-Atlantic.


I was gonna say something like this. Since the storm tracks have been consistently surprising to the north, it's sort of hard to believe it was going to be that far suppressed. We'll see.
@ScottLincoln - FWIW...I, for one, appreciate your posts. Many times you have clarified methodologies for those of us 'not in the know', in a manner that's easy to understand.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Bionic Leaf Uses Bacteria To Convert Sunlight Into Fuel



Harvard researchers have announced a method to turn sunlight and air into isopropanol (C3H8O). While mainly used as a solvent and in pharmaceuticals, isopropanol can also be used as a liquid fuel for transportation, or converted into even more convenient fuels.
448. bwi
Quoting 440. washingtonian115:

Because everyone loves food



Not sure that is actually food. Edible, perhaps. Has calories, perhaps. But I wouldn't eat it!
It's like kicking a hornets nest!

Quoting lostinohio:
HEY!!!!!!!!!

i AM TRYING TO FINally get some snow in NW Georgia and all you can do is argue GLOBAL WARMING?????

Use that energy to keep that low pressure from going to far South in the Gulf MONDAY AND TUESDAY and not throwing the moisture UP HERE!!!

:-)
OK, I'm going to go way out on a limb here. You have a 50% chance of sleet, or snow, or freezing rain sometime between Sunday and Tuesday night based on the current models, which will likely change again in the next six hours. There, feel better now. :-)
What is wrong about my understanding of science? Please explain.


psst matt....understanding of science...well...that's a large subject...you just misunderstood the climatology graph concerning el nino....not a big deal really....

now folks...let's all take a deep breath and relax....ohhhhhhhmmmmmmmmmmmm




Quoting 436. tampabaymatt:



Again, your assumptions that I'm a college student majoring in meteorology are incorrect. I have never claimed either points on this blog, so deciding to make up things about me to substantiate your flawed opinions is not the best move on your part.

That's not what I assumed at all. I know that you are not currently in a meteorology program.

My assumption was that your heavy interest in meteorology and related concepts, which are quite evident on the blog, would lead you to that type of program when the time comes. That's what many people choose to do when they develop a strong interest in a field.

I'm sorry if my assumption that you wanted to go to college for meteorology was in error.
454. jpsb
Quoting 419. Drakoen:



Just because it is a warm current doesn't mean it cannot be anomalously warm.


Now that I can agree with.
Quoting 436. tampabaymatt:

You seem to get frustrated when people on this blog make claims and don't back them up with sources,

When people make wild, exaggerated, novel claims.
Quoting 436. tampabaymatt:

yet you do this all the time.

Again, I cite sources quite often. I make it a point to be diligent in this. Things I don't cite tend to be easily verifiable. But even in those situations, if something is unclear, you could perhaps just ask?
Quoting 436. tampabaymatt:

So, we're supposed to just believe that you know what you're talking about?

That's your choice one way or the other. But there are certain topics in which I am very well-versed. I have the educational background and real life experience behind it, too.
Quoting 436. tampabaymatt:

you seem to get a kick out of trying to point flaws in my comments. I don't claim to be an expert on anything.

I get no pleasure out of scientific ignorance, make no mistake. So that it is 100% clear I do not get a kick out of someone posting something that is very inaccurate. If you know that you are not an expert, take comments to your posts as constructive and learn from it. Don't jab back. The intention is to help you learn, but sometimes it seems like that is not something you care to do. People that are trying to learn accept criticism and ask questions. That's the behavior one would expect.
Quoting 436. tampabaymatt:

I really have no interest in going back and forth with you, so unless you can offer your opinions to me in a constructive, positive way, please just stop. I have a pet peeve for people that act like they are experts in everything and have nothing else to learn.

If it bothers you that much, there is the ignore function. But there is no reason to let things of a very inaccurate nature go unchallenged. It will continue, but how you choose to take it - as constructive with the intention of helping one to learn, or as a reason to dig in and lash out - is up to you.

It's unfortunate that you have the perception of me that you claim. But if you think this is something exclusive to me, that if you were to act this way at college or to other knowledgeable individuals and not get corrected, you will have a tough time entering academia. I promise you, I'm mild by comparison.
Quoting 455. ScottLincoln:


When people make wild, exaggerated, novel claims.

Again, I cite sources quite often. I make it a point to be diligent in this. Things I don't cite tend to be easily verifiable. But even in those situations, if something is unclear, you could perhaps just ask?

That's your choice one way or the other. But there are certain topics in which I am very well-versed. I have the educational background and real life experience behind it, too.

I get no pleasure out of scientific ignorance, make no mistake. So that it is 100% clear I do not get a kick out of someone posting something that is very inaccurate. If you know that you are not an expert, take comments to your posts as constructive and learn from it. Don't jab back. The intention is to help you learn, but sometimes it seems like that is not something you care to do. People that are trying to learn accept criticism and ask questions. That's the behavior one would expect.

If it bothers you that much, there is the ignore function. But there is no reason to let things of a very inaccurate nature go unchallenged. It will continue, but how you choose to take it - as constructive with the intention of helping one to learn, or as a reason to dig in and lash out - is up to you.

It's unfortunate that you have the perception of me that you claim. But if you think this is something exclusive to me, that if you were to act this way at college or to other knowledgeable individuals and not get corrected, you will have a tough time entering academia. I promise you, I'm mild by comparison.


Now, I'm younger than college age?! LOL, you're on a roll there.
Quoting 399. jpsb:



The debate is over the amount of warming and the cause of the warming. No serious person could claim that the climate has not warmed recently.


Umm no there isn't a debate over what's causing it. We can measure the radiative forcings. We know there is an energy imbalance in the system, we have measured it, we know there is an increase in man made CO2 from combustion by isotope and a corresponding drop in O2, we know the absorption spectrum of CO2, the energy imbalance is mainly at the wavelengths of CO2 and other greenhouse gases like methane, this concept is further confirmed by a warming lower atmosphere and a cooling upper atmosphere, a tell tale sign of the greenhouse effect. Unless there is some mystery forcing that acts exactly like CO2 but is not CO2, all evidence points to CO2.

Which part are you debating? What part do you not understand?
Quoting 455. ScottLincoln:


When people make wild, exaggerated, novel claims.

Again, I cite sources quite often. I make it a point to be diligent in this. Things I don't cite tend to be easily verifiable. But even in those situations, if something is unclear, you could perhaps just ask?

That's your choice one way or the other. But there are certain topics in which I am very well-versed. I have the educational background and real life experience behind it, too.

I get no pleasure out of scientific ignorance, make no mistake. So that it is 100% clear I do not get a kick out of someone posting something that is very inaccurate. If you know that you are not an expert, take comments to your posts as constructive and learn from it. Don't jab back. The intention is to help you learn, but sometimes it seems like that is not something you care to do. People that are trying to learn accept criticism and ask questions. That's the behavior one would expect.

If it bothers you that much, there is the ignore function. But there is no reason to let things of a very inaccurate nature go unchallenged. It will continue, but how you choose to take it - as constructive with the intention of helping one to learn, or as a reason to dig in and lash out - is up to you.

It's unfortunate that you have the perception of me that you claim. But if you think this is something exclusive to me, that if you were to act this way at college or to other knowledgeable individuals and not get corrected, you will have a tough time entering academia. I promise you, I'm mild by comparison.


I did not make wild, exaggerated claims, nor did I say anything that was inaccurate. If you're referring to the periodicity of El Nino, I have actually done research and found that there is evidence of this. I have posted this before, but perhaps you missed it.

In any event, you continue to make incorrect assumptions about me, which shows your ignorance more than anything. If believing I'm a young kid that dreams to be a meteorologist makes you feel better about your posts, that is up to you. However, it is incorrect and I have never claimed to be any of those things. So, you're choosing to fabricate lies about me for some unknown reason.

I'm happy to accept criticism and corrections, and I would encourage you to embrace the same. However, I would encourage you to present your criticism and counter points in a way that makes you appear like less of a jerk.
Quoting 453. jpsb:



Climate change will cause storms, hurricanes and tropical storms to become more intense

Recent scientific evidence suggests a link between the destructive power (or intensity) of hurricanes and higher ocean temperatures, driven in large part by global warming.

Experts say global warming is causing stronger hurricanes

Projected sea level rise, increased hurricane intensity, and associated storm surge may lead to further erosion, flooding, and property damage in the Southeast.




For the record, the Emanuel study confirmed an increase in the strongest (roughly cat 3 and higher) of hurricanes globally (with no change in the Atlantic basin).

It is actually quite offensive that the claim you are actually trying to make using the current research in climate change related issues as ammunition that scientists have it wrong. I don't know where you did your research, but what you are seeing is called scientific discourse. Science builds off of other science (think about published papers as a discussion between the most knowledgeable in their field of expertise), some of the published science is incorrect due to a myriad of reasons, that science no longer gets cited and is left behind, but does help other researchers to understand flaws and allow for a better picture to be created. What you are attempting to do is use the actual method by which scientific knowledge is created in academic settings and say that it is evidence all science is wrong. I don't even know where to begin to dissect the all problems with your assertion, because it is incorrect on so many interdisciplinary fronts.
Quoting 456. tampabaymatt:



Now, I'm younger than college age?! LOL, you're on a roll there.

Ok, so my attempts at giving you the benefit of the doubt were misguided.
So you're an adult who hasn't gone to school for meteorology, doesn't intend to go to school for meteorology, but feels like he is on par with people who have put forth the time & effort?

Things are starting to make more sense. I feel like I was being too nice giving you so much benefit of the doubt.
Quoting 460. ScottLincoln:


Ok, so my attempts at giving you the benefit of the doubt were misguided.
So you're an adult who hasn't gone to school for meteorology, doesn't intend to go to school for meteorology, but feels like he is on par with people who have put forth the time & effort?

Things are starting to make more sense. I feel like I was being too nice giving you so much benefit of the doubt.


I never stated I felt I was on par with those who have gone to school for meteorology. Another incorrect assumption by you.

In fact, I have pointed out many times that I don't claim to be an expert on meteorology.

Your claims are entering laughable territory now.
Quoting 434. Patrap:



Again,...


Don't you mean still?
Quoting 460. ScottLincoln:


Ok, so my attempts at giving you the benefit of the doubt were misguided.
So you're an adult who hasn't gone to school for meteorology, doesn't intend to go to school for meteorology, but feels like he is on par with people who have put forth the time & effort?

Things are starting to make more sense. I feel like I was being too nice giving you so much benefit of the doubt.


If you care to continue with this nonsense, please point out exactly what I posted that you have such a problem with. We can take each case one by one. Otherwise, you're just making yourself look like a fool for attacking me for no reason.
Quoting 422. ScottLincoln:


Not one person ever said "the gulf stream is an anomaly." That's pure bunk. I think you might have a misunderstanding of what an anomaly is.

If it wasn't for your reputation of frequently misunderstanding this topic, twisting peoples' words, and distracting people with irrelevant graphics, I'd assume it was just an honest mistake.

+ 10
Quoting 394. jpsb:



Minor nitpick, the Gulf Stream ALWAYS flows off the US East Coast so it is not an anomaly, it's the Gulf Stream and it has been there for millions of years.
Excuse me -- the Gulf Stream is not the anomaly -- its temperature is, as well as the temperature of the surrounding ocean water, which is also anomalously warm. Please study your dictionary for the meaning of the terms used. And I gather you were here millions of years ago and saw the Gulf Stream then -- as far as I know there is no historical clear scientific evidence for it being that old.
Quoting 462. JohnLonergan:



Don't you mean still?
Exactly what is the lie, that you bastions of honesty, are accusing JB of telling his readers?
000
FXUS62 KTAE 131505
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1005 AM EST Fri Feb 13 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
12 UTC surface analysis shows high pressure across Western
Tennessee. A very cold airmass is in place across much of the
Eastern US. Temperatures this morning dropped into the upper 20s
across some of our northern counties with areas in North Florida
generally around 30 degrees. Sunny skies are expected today, but
temperatures will be slow to warm with highs only in the upper 40s
to lower 50s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Saturday]...VFR conditions will prevail with light N
to NW winds.

&&

.Prev Discussion [440 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...

The Southeast will be dominated by very dry, stable, continental
air, so rain is not in the forecast. The main forecast challenge
will be temperatures. We expect another freeze tonight, with
strong cooling aided by calm wind and a very dry boundary layer.
The primary limiting factor will be high-level clouds associated
with a short wave trough. Our forecast lows are in the mid 20s to
lower 30s, except at the beaches and cities where temperatures
will remain just above freezing. The duration and area coverage of
temperatures of 25 deg (our local threshold for a "hard" freeze)
appears too limited for a watch or warning. Ahead of the next cold
front, highs will warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s Saturday
afternoon. The dry cold front will pass through our forecast area
late Saturday night and early Sunday. Lows will be in the mid 30s
(north) to lower 40s (south), and highs only in the upper 40s
(north) to mid 50s (south).


.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

The GFS and ECMWF agree that the mean 500 mb height pattern will
feature a high-amplitude 500 mb ridge near the western CONUS
coast, and a broad, occasionally deep, long wave trough over the
eastern half of the CONUS. This normally correlates to a cold, dry
pattern for our region. What`s interesting about this pattern this time,
however, is that it appears that the subtropical jet stream will
become more active- bringing precipitation back in play across the
Deep South for the first time in a week.

After another light freeze Monday morning and relatively cool
temperatures (in the 50s) Monday afternoon, a modest warming
trend will begin ahead of a rapidly-developing frontal system over
the Deep South. This front will bring rain to our region late Monday
through Tuesday night, before clearing our area by Wednesday
morning. (The GFS continues to be faster with this system than the
ECMWF). The airmass behind this front appears to be very cold in
both model solutions, and the 00 UTC NAEFS forecasts an 850 mb temperature
of about 3 standard deviations below climo for our area Wednesday
afternoon and night. Therfore our temperatures are a little
cooler than our normal consensus blend for Wednesday and Thursday`s
temperatures, with yet another freeze likely Thursday morning. Both
models also forecast rapid frontogensis near our area on Thursday
as a potent short wave trough rounds the base of the mean 500 mb
long wave trough. Both solutions forecast some light snow near or
in portions of our forecast area on Thursday, but it is too early
to get into these kinds of details with such a complex, rapidly-
evolving weather pattern.


The NWS in Tallahassee, going boldly where no FL forecast discussion has gone before, using the S word in a long term discussion!

Lol jk, but really though, it certainly isn't used very often in a long term discussion, obviously they aren't forecasting any snow around here yet, it's just fun to see it mentioned regarding model solutions.
Looks like a 1" to 2" rain event tomorrow from Tampa to Cape Canaveral north. All of this rain will put all of N C FL above average for the month of February as a whole.

NAM


WRF