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Atmospheric River Heads for California as a Massive Field Study Gears Up

By: Bob Henson 6:30 PM GMT on February 03, 2015

Relief is on the way for drought-stricken parts of the U.S. West later this week, as an intense atmospheric river (AR) takes aim. This ribbon of deep moisture and strong wind will move onshore by Thursday night, kicking off a multiday series of downpours from roughly the northern half of California into the Pacific Northwest. The impending AR will likely be the most intensely observed in weather history, thanks to an armada of instruments deployed across California and the Northeast Pacific for a two-month interagency study called CalWater 2015. The project’s goals are to improve prediction of ARs affecting California and to assess the importance of aerosols (airborne particles) in shaping rainfall patterns across the region.


Figure 1. NOAA’s Ronald H. Brown research vessel is among the research platforms now being deployed to study atmospheric rivers in the CalWater 2015 project. Image credit: NOAA.

ARs are well worth getting a handle on, since they play an outsized role in both drought relief and flooding across California. It’s been estimated that 25 - 50% of California’s water supply is derived from AR events. As research intensified on ARs in the 1990s, scientists recognized that the rain-bearing moisture channel often called the “pineapple express”--extending from Hawaii to California--was just one example of a global phenomenon. More than 90% of all the water vapor that flows into midlatitudes from the tropics is channeled by ARs, which span just 10% of the latitudinal band at 35°N. When we look at a global loop of satellite-derived moisture content, ARs show up as bright filaments, stretching poleward like taffy being pulled from the perennial band of rich moisture that encircles the tropics. When a midlatitude storm draws in moisture from an emerging AR, the moisture becomes further concentrated as winds converge just ahead of the associated cold front. ARs can extend more than 1000 miles long but average only about 200 - 400 miles wide. Along with the the classic “pineapple express” pattern, ARs can take on a variety of other shapes and trajectories, which adds complexity to predicting how they’ll behave.

Computer forecast models can now spot many ARs five or more days before they threaten the U.S. West Coast, but there are often big uncertainties among models in the strength, position, and timing of each AR event. Many of the question marks arise simply because of the limited data available from the Pacific Ocean. Passive microwave sensors can estimate the total amount of water vapor located over the Pacific, but upper-level winds are more difficult to gauge by satellite. The first CalWater study in 2010 shed light on some of these uncertainties, as well as the importance of aerosols in either stimulating or suppressing rain and snow at various altitudes. A separate project called HIPPO showed that a surprisingly large amount of aerosols can reach the North Pacific from Asia, which implies they might be able to influence the evolution of some ARs. This year, CalWater is expanding its sights with a beefier set of observing platforms. They include three aircraft (P-3 and Gulfstream IV “hurricane hunters” from NOAA and a Gulfstream I from the U.S. Department of Energy) along with NOAA’s Ronald H. Brown research vessel, which will launch weather balloons and employ its newly upgraded dual-polarization radar. Specialized instruments aboard the aircraft will measure cloud microphysics and aerosol properties.



Figure 2. Cumulative 168-hour (7-day) precipitation from the GFS model run starting at 1200 GMT Tuesday, February 3. Image credit: NOAA.

The outlook for this week’s AR
Light rain is already pushing into western Oregon and Washington today and Wednesday ahead of the core AR event. The newly upgraded GFS model, whose resolution was sharpened to 13 kilometers last month, is the most bullish on heavy rain for the upcoming AR. The 12Z Tuesday output (Figure 2) delivers more than 5” of rain to the north part of the Bay Area through the weekend, with the potential for 5” – 10” or more and very strong winds in and near the coastal range through far northern California and southwest Oregon. More than 10” of liquid equivalent could also over mountainous parts of Washington. Hefty precipitation totals are also expected along the central and northern Sierra Nevada in California, with available water vapor close to record-high amounts for February. Unfortunately for the snowpack, temperatures through the weekend will be warm enough to keep most of the bounty in the form of rain below 7000 - 8000 feet, with a more general lowering of snow levels only toward the end of the multiday bout of storminess. The European and NAM models produce substantially lower precipitation amounts for this system, so it’ll be worth watching to see if the upgraded GFS comes through with the best overall precipitation forecast, as it did with last week’s Blizzard of 2015 (Juno) in the Northeast. Model resolution plays a key role in predicting heavy precipitation, especially in mountainous areas where the local topography can be better resolved.

Allen White, a research meteorologist with NOAA and a mission scientist for CalWater 2015, reports that the NOAA G-IV will be transecting the atmospheric river offshore on Wednesday, perhaps followed by the P-3 on Thursday with possible flight paths above the Ron Brown and over the coast near Bodega Bay. Flights on Friday would likely be over California, where the aircraft data would supplement an array of vertically pointing precipitation profilers and enhanced rain gauges. Meanwhile, the G-1 will focus on aerosol-related missions, including the impacts of long-range dust transport. “Having all these observing assets available is a huge bonus,” White told me. “We can now observe the AR and the precipitation it generates from above, below, and throughout. This requires a huge forecasting and coordination effort and highlights a very successful interagency collaboration among federal, state, and local agencies, as well as academia.”

A 2014 open access paper in Frontiers in Earth Science provides a good overview of AR research for readers comfortable with some relatively technical content.



Figure 3. Based on GFS model output from 1200 GMT Tuesday, February 3, NOAA’s automated AR detection tool indicates that a plume of enhanced moisture will be headed squarely for northern California at 1200 GMT Friday, February 6. Colors show integrated vapor transport in units of kilograms per meter per second, with arrows indicating the direction and strength of transport. The model indicates that the core of the AR will carry more than 1000 kilograms (about 2200 pounds) of water vapor every second across every meter of ocean that’s oriented perpendicular to the flow. Atmospheric rivers are generally defined by values of at least 250 kg/m/s. Image credit: NOAA Earth System Laboratory.

Digging out in the Midwest and Northeast--for now, at least
The sprawling winter storm dubbed Linus turned out to be an overachiever along much of its west-to-east course from the northern Great Plains to New England. With blizzard warnings posted on Sunday, Chicago ended up with its fifth largest snowstorm on record (19.3”) and the most snow for any calendar day in February (16.2”). Detroit racked up its third largest storm on record with 16.7”, the most observed in any event since 1974. On Monday, New Yorkers again found themselves on the margins of a winter storm, this time laboring through a sloppy sequence of snow, sleet, rain, freezing rain, and snow that left patches of treacherous ice on Monday night. Meanwhile, much of eastern New England is reeling from the one-two punch of heavy snows last week and again this week, with an intervening lighter storm only adding insult to injury. From January 24 through February 2, Boston racked up 47.9” of snow; according to the Weather Channel’s Nick Wiltgen, this is the largest total for any ten-day period on record in Boston. The town of Lunenburg, about 45 miles west of Boston, did even better (or worse) as it notched 36.6” and 19.7” from Juno and Linus, respectively, for a grand total of 56.3” of snowfall. Bangor, Maine, reported 45" of snow on the ground Tuesday morning, the most since a record 53" in February-March 1969. A weak clipper will bring more light snow to the Midwest and Northeast later this week, followed by a shot of bitter cold. Looking further out, winter-weary and wary New Englanders could get pummeled by yet another significant snow by the weekend, although model guidance so far has been inconsistent.

Bob Henson


Figure 3. An evocative depiction of snow without end, taken Monday evening, February 2, at Kennebunk, Maine: “It was a very dark and gloomy day, without big fluffy flakes or brightness in the sky. Temps have remained in the single digits, so the snow has remained small and granular as well. Thought I'd try one more shot while there was a bit of daylight left.” Photo credit: wunderphotographer Kennebunker.

Winter Weather Atmospheric Phenomena

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

coolio'
Special Statement

Statement as of 3:31 PM PST on February 02, 2015

An atmospheric river (a plume of concentrated moisture) is taking aim for the Pacific northwest and northern California with wetter weather impacting our region Thursday through Monday. Snow levels will start around 7000 ft elevation, near Sierra pass levels, on Thursday and then rise higher over the weekend so this pattern will not cause a significant improvement to snow pack. Models are still variable in terms of exact precipitation amounts, but it should be a decent rain event for much of norcal. Confidence is highest for heavy rainfall occurring north of Interstate 80. Rainfall amounts along the southern portion of the storm, south of Interstate 80, could change significantly based on storm track. We will continue to update as the storm gets closer and confidence improves.

Impacts:

* localized Urban and Small Stream flooding * limited Road problems as snow levels will likely be at or above Sierra pass levels * occasional power outages from breezy to gusty southerly winds * potential for debris flows near wildfire burn scars

Timing and strength:

* precipitation expected Thursday for northwest CA and will spread east and southward by Friday with most of the valley measuring 1-4 inches and 4-10 inches across foothills and mountains * heaviest precipitation expected Friday * strongest winds expected on Friday with valley gusts up to 45 mph and higher gusts across the mountains

Jbb
Nice
Thanks Bob...
great blog - tons of awesome information. thanks!
No snow here Sunday.Just more pointless rain.The ground is already soggy.Might as well have a early spring here.
Atmospheric River sounds like one of the selections on the Sleep Machine app on my phone.
nice update thanks
Quoting 7. washingtonian115:

No snow here Sunday.Just more pointless rain.The ground is already soggy.Might as well have a early spring here.


I don't have that problem up here in Alaska... Lucky right now that it pops up above zero. I am not complaining at all though.

I was in Miami for the past two weeks and it was way too hot for me and it was in the 50s at night and 70s in the day.
Gee, we should get a er, "Hey, see, all those ships and planes are adding C02 to the Air we breathe, isn't that kinda hypocritical bro?", Post.

So I got it in early for those "inclined".
Someone should tell that D.C. blogger that Ma Nature is not inclined to worry about her "want's" in any sense.

She's like dat.
Quoting 12. Patrap:

Someone should tell that D.C. blogger that Ma Nature is not inclined to worry about her "want's" in any sense.

She's like dat.


lol. Stirring the pot now?
Quoting 10. Dakster:



I don't have that problem up here in Alaska... Lucky right now that it pops up above zero. I am not complaining at all though.

I was in Miami for the past two weeks and it was way too hot for me and it was in the 50s at night and 70s in the day.
I just want spring
More than 10” of liquid equivalent could also over mountainous parts of Washington.



go cal go!.....get some
Even though the incoming storm will cause the usual mudslides and flooding, this is the only kind of storm I saw in my 40 years of living in California that will break the back of a major drought. Let's hope it does so this time. It also seems like a big storm opens the door to succeeding (and colder) events. If so, California might finally get over the hump.
Quoting Dakster:


I don't have that problem up here in Alaska... Lucky right now that it pops up above zero. I am not complaining at all though.

I was in Miami for the past two weeks and it was way too hot for me and it was in the 50s at night and 70s in the day.
Hey, Dak, good to see you again. Below zero, huh? I'm glad you're adapting so well. I'd be sceaming for mercy. :-)
Quoting 13. Drakoen:



lol. Stirring the pot now?
Yeah and thats what nature said when it sent Katrina to NOLA.Or those 4 hurricanes into Florida.
Quoting Drakoen:


lol. Stirring the pot now?
Dat da way he bes....
More than 10” of liquid equivalent could also over mountainous parts of Washington.



go cal go!.....get some



yo dummy....do you read what you post.......it reads washington...not cal.......aint no snow unless it's above 7000 feet......

yep....i'm talking to myself....carry on....
Quoting 19. sar2401:

Dat da way he bes....


Perfect example of the inconsistency in moderating I mentioned earlier.......
Excellent report covering most of the most significant points on the upcoming deluge. Yes, the new GFS is already outperforming the other models...so far. I would only add that there is an important and significant distinction between this type of atmospheric river event and a "classic" Pineapple Connection. The classic version has an arctic outbreak and strong cold air entrainment which results not only in heavy rain, but very heavy snow in the Sierras. That was absent in the December event, and again in this one. It remains to be seen what the ultimate effect on the water supply will be. On the one hand, most of the large reservoirs are at the very mid elevations where orographic rainfall will be most intense, so one might expect good runoff during and just afterwards. But will that be enough to offset the lack of snowmelt runoff later in the year?
Back at the mirror - your good friend
Talk to the mirror, but play out your game
Sat in the middle, I stop then
Look at the winner, and the price you pay



Eureka,Ca. WFO Rainbow

Perfect example of the inconsistency in moderating I mentioned earlier.......



here's how i look at it....did i do something that deserved a ban...if i did....who cares what happens to anyone else....
GFS 12z ensembles are south of the OP. FWIW.

Fairness-caster
Thanks for the update Mr. Henson.
Excellent post Bob!! Love this statement, "ARs show up as bright filaments, stretching poleward like taffy being pulled from the perennial band of rich moisture that encircles the tropics."
33. bwi
Quoting 27. Drakoen:

GFS 12z ensembles are south of the OP. FWIW.




And look at the blocking position of that high over Quebec and Atlantic! Possible longer duration, slower mover system. OK, now I'm interested.
I had a chance to visit the R/V Ronald H. Brown when it made a port visit to San Francisco sometime in the late 90's. The vessel makes regular port visits on both coasts and usually has public boardings during part of a visit. If you get the chance you should definitely see this ship. It's much larger than I imagined, about the size of a Navy frigate. It's the most highly automated vessel I've ever seen. A navy frigate takes a crew of about 125 (minus all the combat positions) to run the ship. This ship has a total operating crew of 22! It's powered by three impressively large diesels of 1500 horsepower each. My last sailboat had a 100 horsepower diesel that would fit in the cylinder of one of these diesels. The coolest thing to me as an old sailor is the combination bow and stern thrusters that allows the ship to rotate in a complete circle while it's not making way, so the ship can hover like a helicopter over any spot the scientists want to investigate. It's tied into the GPS and automatically adjusts the thrusters so it stays exactly in the same place, and can do so for days. It's got a huge amount of lab space and three big cable reels on the back for lowering all the gear that scientists need for underwater work. The ship also has three satellite systems that allow communication by computer or voice anywhere in the world. They even have movies every night, you can surf the web in the middle of the ocean and, by the looks of the menu I saw, nobody starves. :-)

If you wonder where our tax money goes, see this ship if you get the chance. It's money well spent in this case.


watch out if you live in boston
Quoting 35. hurricanes2018:



watch out if you live in boston
here we go with the gfs back more to the west again!
Might be of interest:

AMERICAN EXPERIENCE Presents: The Big Burn tonight on PBS
The Fire That Changed Everything - "The Big Burn"

Inspired by Timothy Egan's best-selling book, The Big Burn is the dramatic story of the massive wildfire that swept across the Northern Rockies in the summer of 1910. The fire devoured more than three million acres in 36 hours, confronting the fledgling U.S. Forest Service with a catastrophe that would define the agency and the nation's fire policy for much of the 20th century. As America tries to manage its fire-prone landscapes in the 21st century, The Big Burn provides a cautionary tale of heroism and sacrifice, arrogance and greed, hubris and, ultimately, humility, in the face of nature's frightening power. Written and directed by Stephen Ives, The Big Burn premieres on AMERICAN EXPERIENCE on February 3, 2015 at 9:00-10:00 p.m. ET on PBS (check local listings ).



Jeff Masters
looks like fl could get a good shot of cold air that will be cool
Quoting 14. washingtonian115:

I just want spring


Here in DC we get it way before some other less fortunate places such as Boston or Chicago. Five weeks or
so probably.



Satellite View: A Little Rain Goes a Long Way for Parched California

While California remains in the grips of a drought, a wet December brought some much needed relief that was immediately visible in the Sierra Nevada. Greener stretches of land can be seen in a satellite image taken on January 31, 2015 when compared to one from the same time last year. Though, there has been little rain since then. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the lack of precipitation and warm temperatures have contributed to less snowpack this year.

First published February 3rd 2015, 3:10 am
The coming rain will definitely help--at this point, a passing shower is better than nothing, and the coming event should bring substantially more than that--but as you can see from this map, parts of California need one, two, three or more feet of rain to end the drought.



The coming AR is expected to bring rains of 2" to 7" over much of the northern part of the state. But with deficits for places measuring in feet, I'm afraid there's not going to be anywhere close to the amount of relief needed from this storm alone.

Thanks for the update on atmospheric phenomena Bob Henson.
We do of course have to wonder if this is a flash in the pan, or a drop in the ocean, or the deluge which saves millions from owing millions more?

Complacency should not be indulged in simply because it rains a bit and effectively bales out the situation and what is desperately needed is a proper conservation and distribution system.
After all it no use using a distribution system which cant distribute.

What we don't want to hear a year from now is how much rain fell last year in the winter and how dry it is again this winter.

Then again the salvation of the sufferers is in the hands of the suffering now!
Quoting 35. hurricanes2018:



watch out if you live in boston
Is it just me or is the GFS starting to trend back toward a more or less agreement with the Euro for this upcoming NE snow event, whatever it actually turns out to be or not to be?
Dr Masters .. With the on going drought in the west under present conditions could a fire of this magnitude occur in the present ??
Quoting BayFog:
Excellent report covering most of the most significant points on the upcoming deluge. Yes, the new GFS is already outperforming the other models...so far. I would only add that there is an important and significant distinction between this type of atmospheric river event and a "classic" Pineapple Connection. The classic version has an arctic outbreak and strong cold air entrainment which results not only in heavy rain, but very heavy snow in the Sierras. That was absent in the December event, and again in this one. It remains to be seen what the ultimate effect on the water supply will be. On the one hand, most of the large reservoirs are at the very mid elevations where orographic rainfall will be most intense, so one might expect good runoff during and just afterwards. But will that be enough to offset the lack of snowmelt runoff later in the year?
Hopefully it will turn out like the winter of 1994-1995. The first really heavy rains came in with high snowfall levels but the following rains in February and March were much colder, and the Sierras ended up with a much above normal snowfall year. There were a couple of epic snowstorms just before President's Day that pulled places like Heavenly and Squaw from almost no base to something like 20 feet in a week. Maybe you'll luck out and have the same thing happen.


snow agaIN!!
Quoting 20. ricderr:

More than 10” of liquid equivalent could also over mountainous parts of Washington.



go cal go!.....get some



yo dummy....do you read what you post.......it reads washington...not cal.......aint no snow unless it's above 7000 feet......

yep....i'm talking to myself....carry on....


Go knock your head against the wall a few times, have a cold one and you'll be fine.
Quoting whitewabit:
Dr Masters .. With the on going drought in the west under present conditions could a fire of this magnitude occur in the present ??
Sure it could. It's probably just a matter of time with the right conditions. I watched the Oakland Hills firestorm as part of the command staff trying to fight it. The only thing that stopped the fire was the wind finally dying down. There was no human force on earth that could stop it, regardless of how many firefighters and borate bombers we had. If the wind kept up, it would have burned all the way through Berkeley, with the Bay finally stopping it. With enough fuel and the right weather conditions, fire always wins.
Quoting 29. Patrap:

13F in Fargo



Current US Jet Stream


As a lurker who's read this blog for over a decade, I must salute you for your 'fairness' to those of us who live in North Dakota! Thanks for the smile Pat.
Quoting 48. sar2401:

Sure it could. It's probably just a matter of time with the right conditions. I watched the Oakland Hills firestorm as part of the command staff trying to fight it. The only thing that stopped the fire was the wind finally dying down. There was no human force on earth that could stop it, regardless of how many firefighters and borate bombers we had. If the wind kept up, it would have burned all the way through Berkeley, with the Bay finally stopping it. With enough fuel and the right weather conditions, fire always wins.

I don't want to plus this post but I at the same time have to agree with SAR.
Human influence needs a lot of luck to beat nature.
If you ever stand on a hilltop as some of us do every day the shear size of everything is almost incomprehensible.
I'll try and add a photo of our valley which is a mere 30 miles across with maybe a hundred or more small fires, purposely lit to burn small olive tree branches.
Imagine this multiplied by many thousands of times and you are the pilot of a small aeroplane with a bit of water on board.
Basically, where do you start?
Quoting 7. washingtonian115:

No snow here Sunday.Just more pointless rain.The ground is already soggy.Might as well have a early spring here.



Yes... an early spring. There have only been about 4 and a half inches of snow in St. Louis all winter. Bring on the severe weather for march!
Quoting 49. DakeMisc:



As a lurker who's read this blog for over a decade, I must salute you for your 'fairness' to those of us who live in North Dakota! Thanks for the smile Pat.


of all the Upper Tier States, your's is one Id like to Winter in.

Been to the Norwegian Arctic, but never here in the States that far N for a winter.



Today we have Fire IR Imagery to locate and prevent a large fire easier than way back in da Day.

It matters greatly.

WFO New Orleans


56. bwi
Not exactly Snowmageddon, but this setup could give us a bit of fun
Quoting 52. Patrap:



of all the Upper Tier States, your's is one Id like to Winter in.

Been to the Norwegian Arctic, but never here in the States that far N for a winter.






You shoulda done it years ago when we had real winters. It's been bizarre this year that New England has been colder than us for many, many days. Must admit tho, that I don't miss weeks of below zero weather any more. Of course aging could have something to do with that too.
Quoting 57. DakeMisc:



You shoulda done it years ago when we had real winters. It's been bizarre this year that New England has been colder than us for many, many days. Must admit tho, that I don't miss weeks of below zero weather any more. Of course aging could have something to do with that too.


Admittedly, us 55 and up have seen the warming first hand sadly.


I remember sleet here often in November.

Last true blue Norther here was Dec 89'.

11-14F




I suppose you have to be careful of what you wish for with this rain business.
Too much or too little.
Yesterday the somewhat parched interior of Spain with semi arid conditions experienced a 20 foot rise of its main river, the Ebro.
Today in the middle of mud and shovels the count seems to be that about 20,000 acres of agricultural land had its crops wiped of the surface of the planet by the floods.
Water levels were running at about 1,800 cubic meters per second yesterday, they have dropped a bit today.
That's about 360,000 US gallons a second of river flow.
Not much by Mississippi standards probably but this a country which is a lot smaller than Texas!
Quoting 51. TimTheWxMan:




Yes... an early spring. There have only been about 4 and a half inches of snow in St. Louis all winter. Bring on the severe weather for march!
This past January was one of D.C's wettest.


Tampa Bay area
Quoting 61. tampabaymatt:



Tampa Bay area
might get some thunder etc wens night matt
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
406 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2015

PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041-042-04 2115-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-SOMERSET-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-
406 PM EST TUE FEB 3 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER
PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$
Quoting sar2401:
Hopefully it will turn out like the winter of 1994-1995. The first really heavy rains came in with high snowfall levels but the following rains in February and March were much colder, and the Sierras ended up with a much above normal snowfall year. There were a couple of epic snowstorms just before President's Day that pulled places like Heavenly and Squaw from almost no base to something like 20 feet in a week. Maybe you'll luck out and have the same thing happen.

Nooo! Not to be selfish, but I am hiking the Pacific Crest Trail this year and am kind of liking the idea of low snow in the passes and lower levels of ice-cold snowmelt to wade through.

Although I am headed to Squaw over President's Day, so I'm happy for it to snow like the dickens until then. (And then stop until I make it through California.)
Link to the SPC's live Tornado Forecasting Workshop that begins this evening 7:30-9:00 PM Central

From SPC:
As a partnership between the Storm Prediction Center and the University of Oklahoma%u2019s Student Chapter of the American Meteorological Society, we will be offering a tornado forecasting workshop series led by Lead Forecaster Rich Thompson. Sessions will be held on Tuesdays between 7:30 and 9:00 PM Central Time, starting February 3. The workshop will be conducted at the National Weather Center on the campus of the University of Oklahoma in Norman, and will be open to anyone who would like to attend. The workshop will also be streamed live online for those who cannot attend in person.

The workshop will be streamed live online, available at the following link: www.tinyurl.com/TornadoForecasting
If you can not watch the live streaming presentation, the workshops will be archived at the same web address for later viewing.

Workshop schedule:
February 3rd Sounding analysis and synoptic meteorology (lifted parcels, Q-G theory, etc.)
February 10th Severe storm ingredients (low-level moisture and lapse rates)
February 17th Severe storm ingredients (vertical shear and lift)
March 3rd Supercell and tornado conceptual models (plus composite parameters)
March 10th Tornado patterns (synoptic and mesoscale)
March 24th Convective mode forecasting (squall lines vs. discrete cells)
April 7th Tornado parameter climatology (spatial and temporal distributions of CAPE and shear)
April 14th Numerical models and statistical techniques (convective schemes and post processing)
April 21st Real-time forecasting exercise
The workshop will also be on the OU Student Chapter of AMS youtube channel...




Get your own valid XHTML YouTube embed code
There is still some chance that the low could pass closer to the Northeast coast, which would raise the potential for more significant snow in New England. However, the latest computer model guidance as of Tuesday afternoon shows that this is now less likely to occur.
Quoting 62. LargoFl:

might get some thunder etc wens night matt




The 18Z run of the GFS continues to keep the heaviest of rain totals well to our north, near the nature coast. This is also in line with what the NWS is forecasting. We'll see but hopefully this rain event isn't a dud for our area.
18z GFS has shifted south in line with the UKMET and GGEM for early next week's storm. I feel like i'm repeating myself for some reason.
Quoting 68. Drakoen:

18z GFS has shifted south in line with the UKMET and GGEM for early next week's storm. I feel like i'm repeating myself for some reason.

Quoting 69. washingtonian115:





Yes, we've been there done that.

I'll let you know if and when it's 24 hours away. :)
Quoting 69. washingtonian115:



I'm ready for the Spring!
72. bwi
Whoa, potential for non-stop snow from Sunday morning through Tuesday. On the heels of a too-close-for-complete-dismissal coastal fly-by on Thursday.
Quoting 72. bwi:

Whoa, potential for non-stop snow from Sunday morning through Tuesday. On the heels of a too-close-for-complete-dismissal coastal fly-by on Thursday.


Look at you getting your hopes up
74. bwi
Quoting 73. Drakoen:



Look at you getting your hopes up


If it's gonna be cold, might as well be interesting! Plus would give me an excuse to get a proper fat bike anyways. No such thing as bad weather, only bad clothing and poor methods of transport.
Quoting 67. tampabaymatt:





The 18Z run of the GFS continues to keep the heaviest of rain totals well to our north, near the nature coast. This is also in line with what the NWS is forecasting. We'll see but hopefully this rain event isn't a dud for our area.


I'm not buying this, the GFS has been struggling with generating cold front precip, and has some strange issue lately with only showing low's having mostly warm frontal precip. This happened with the last gulf low about a week and a half ago the GFS had some issue developing cold frontal precip and had the Tampa Bay area getting only only 0.10-0.20. In reality the widespread rain totals were in the 1.0 to 1.5 range.

The reason why it's suspect is all the other parameters the GFS is showing suggests more precip output than it's generating, which means it's precip forecast is not particularly trustworthy. I'm not saying this forecast should be thrown out, I'm just saying I don't think it will be correct with my best judgment for the reasons mentioned above.

Currently the NWS has the Tampa bay area with a 0.50-1.00 inch QPF. This is a bit higher than the GFS, and they note that there is potential for a bit more than that even, but it's good not to go overboard since the models are struggling yet again.

You'll notice guidance has changed multiple times, models just haven't been that reliable lately, the timing for example has just shifted back a full 24 hrs from early model runs, and models have been all over the place with low pressure intensity and track, almost like what you expect with tropical systems.

With that said, the lack of model consistency means I don't have high confidence in any particular solution, but I think the real solution will probably be wetter for the Tampa area going by the GFS's own parameters, not it's total rain forecast.

The GFS is known for showing rain holes over Florida where it has trouble depicting rain over water and land simultaneously for some reason in that area.
Quoting PlazaRed:

I don't want to plus this post but I at the same time have to agree with SAR.
Human influence needs a lot of luck to beat nature.
If you ever stand on a hilltop as some of us do every day the shear size of everything is almost incomprehensible.
I'll try and add a photo of our valley which is a mere 30 miles across with maybe a hundred or more small fires, purposely lit to burn small olive tree branches.
Imagine this multiplied by many thousands of times and you are the pilot of a small aeroplane with a bit of water on board.
Basically, where do you start?


In the foreground is the world famous Claremont Resort Hotel. We had just evacuated about 400 guests and staff before this picture was taken. In the background, almost everything you see burning are multi-million dollar homes. The wind at ground level was blowing about 70 mph and about 90 mph closer to the fire.

That helicopter was being flown by one crazy but top notch CDF pilot who said he could make retardant drops ahead of the fire to try to save the Claremont. He took off with 400 gallons of retardant in the bucket hanging below the helicopter. He was able to make his drop and returned to the fire base. He walked up to the command post, shook his head, and said "Everything's gone. I almost put it in the ground twice. There's nothing I can do". He walked out, got in his car, and that was the last I saw of him that night.

It was a long, long night.


Quoting 55. tampabaymatt:




Here we go with the WPC showing more than 12 inches again in Seattle when the local NWS doesn't indicate that much. Although this will be a very wet pattern arriving, my gosh there are going to be life threatening floods if Seattle get's over a foot of rain this week. We should see how much they get and compare it to the WPC later lol. I mean, maybe that much rain will happen, but it seems overkill right now.
Quoting 72. bwi:

Whoa, potential for non-stop snow from Sunday morning through Tuesday. On the heels of a too-close-for-complete-dismissal coastal fly-by on Thursday.
I wish we shared your enthusiasm.Where do you see that BTW?
Dust
80. bwi
Quoting 78. washingtonian115:

I wish we shared your enthusiasm.Where do you see that BTW?


18z GFS operational shows a long-lasting light snow pattern (maybe not continuous, but still). Then when the coastal storm gets going, it's close enough that the snow continues to build back into the area. Storm finally wobbles east instead of going up the coast, which is something maybe we can get corrected on later runs! :)


81. bwi
Nearly an inch of precip, which would be mostly snow I think (note GFS doesn't have us getting anything from the Thursday fly-by I don't think, so this is all the Sunday-Tuesday event).
Quoting 77. Jedkins01:



Here we go with the WPC showing more than 12 inches again in Seattle when the local NWS doesn't indicate that much. Although this will be a very wet pattern arriving, my gosh there are going to be life threatening floods if Seattle get's over a foot of rain this week. We should see how much they get and compare it to the WPC later lol. I mean, maybe that much rain will happen, but it seems overkill right now.

That graphic is hard to read. The AFD covers the amount of precip, timing, and flood potential:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PST TUE FEB 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING LIGHT RAIN. A MUCH STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL BRING
HEAVY RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING A SERIES OF WET FRONTAL SYSTEMS ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE CWA AND THIS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. RAIN WILL
TAPER LATER THIS EVENING AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. ON WEDNESDAY
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING
LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE MORNING AND TO NORTHERN AREAS IN
THE AFTERNOON. BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES A
BIT SO HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 50S.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WET WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL REACH THE COAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND SPREAD RAIN INLAND OVERNIGHT. A COUPLE OF
WAVES...THURSDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY EVENING..WILL BRING MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES. THE OLYMPICS COULD GET 3-5 INCHES IN THE 36
HOURS ENDING 12Z FRIDAY. A RELATIVE LULL IN THE RAINFALL FRIDAY
MORNING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE ARRIVES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGHS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S. THERE WILL
BE BREEZY OR WINDY CONDITIONS AT TIMES AS THE VARIOUS SYSTEMS PASS
BY. THURSDAY ON THE COAST WILL BE THE WINDIEST PLACE. AT THIS POINT
IT APPEARS WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS RATHER THAN HIGH WIND IS THE
LIKELY OUTCOME. BURKE

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER IMPULSE ARRIVES SATURDAY AND ANOTHER ONE COMES
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND EURO ARE IN BROAD AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS.
THE SUNDAY NIGHT SYSTEM...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...LOOKS
LIKE THE LAST IN THE SERIES. MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOKS MORE
SHOWERY AND TUESDAY LOOKS PRETTY DRY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN
BOTH MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE EACH DAY. THERE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY OR WINDY CONDITIONS AT TIMES. BURKE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE MAIN PROBLEM THIS WEEK WILL BE HEAVY RAIN. THE
FIRST TWO STRONGER WAVES...MAINLY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
COULD BRING ENOUGH RAIN TO THE OLYMPICS TO CAUSE MINOR FLOODING ON
THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON COUNTY. A FLOOD WATCH FOR THAT RIVER IS
IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RAIN KEEPS COMING IN A SERIES OF WAVES...WHICH ALSO IMPLIES
THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE HEAVY RAIN. THAT MAY BE THE SAVING GRACE OF
WHAT WILL CERTAINLY BE A WET WEEK. THE 120-HOUR TOTAL...5 DAYS OF
RAIN...SHOWS 10-13 INCH BULLSEYES OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
1-4 INCHES IN THE LOWLANDS.
THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE ABOVE 5000 FEET
THE ENTIRE TIME WITH OCCASIONAL EXCURSIONS TO 7000 FEET OR HIGHER.

IF THAT AMOUNT OF RAIN FELL IN 48 HOURS OR LESS THERE WOULD ALMOST
CERTAINLY BE WIDESPREAD MAJOR FLOODING ON MANY RIVERS. SINCE THE
RAIN IS SPREAD OUT OVER FIVE DAYS RIVERS WILL RISE...POSSIBLY TO
FLOOD STAGE...BUT MAJOR FLOODING SEEMS UNLIKELY. WILL ISSUE A
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK COVERING MOST OF THE AREA. A MIDDLE GROUND AT
THIS POINT IS THAT THERE WILL BE MINOR FLOODING ON SOME RIVERS...BUT
BOTH NO FLOODING OR MAJOR FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
BURKE
Quoting 41. Neapolitan:

The coming rain will definitely help--at this point, a passing shower is better than nothing, and the coming event should bring substantially more than that--but as you can see from this map, parts of California need one, two, three or more feet of rain to end the drought.



The coming AR is expected to bring rains of 2" to 7" over much of the northern part of the state. But with deficits for places measuring in feet, I'm afraid there's not going to be anywhere close to the amount of relief needed from this storm alone.




The only problem with this though is that it shows only total rain needed, southern California doesn't get nearly as much rain as northern California, they are 2 different climates.

It is possible for parts of northern California to actually make up for that much rain given the climate if a wetter than usual patter were to continue leading to wetter than average years for the next few years, whereas parts of southern California will struggle to overcome the much less rain amounts needed do to it being a much drier climate.

One thing that's strange about this map though is that it claims central Florida is 5-10 inches deficit. I'm not sure where this comes from, because I don't see much in the way of below normal rain for year totals the past few years. South Florida has been a bit below, but most rain gauges I've checked have finished near or above normal the past few years. I'm just not buying that based on data.
Quoting 82. LAbonbon:


That graphic is hard to read. The AFD covers the amount of precip, timing, and flood potential:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
300 PM PST TUE FEB 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING LIGHT RAIN. A MUCH STRONGER WARM FRONT WILL BRING
HEAVY RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL BRING A SERIES OF WET FRONTAL SYSTEMS ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE CWA AND THIS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. RAIN WILL
TAPER LATER THIS EVENING AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS. ON WEDNESDAY
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING
LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE MORNING AND TO NORTHERN AREAS IN
THE AFTERNOON. BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES A
BIT SO HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 50S.

THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF WET WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL REACH THE COAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND SPREAD RAIN INLAND OVERNIGHT. A COUPLE OF
WAVES...THURSDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY EVENING..WILL BRING MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES. THE OLYMPICS COULD GET 3-5 INCHES IN THE 36
HOURS ENDING 12Z FRIDAY. A RELATIVE LULL IN THE RAINFALL FRIDAY
MORNING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE ARRIVES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGHS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD REACH THE MID 50S. THERE WILL
BE BREEZY OR WINDY CONDITIONS AT TIMES AS THE VARIOUS SYSTEMS PASS
BY. THURSDAY ON THE COAST WILL BE THE WINDIEST PLACE. AT THIS POINT
IT APPEARS WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS RATHER THAN HIGH WIND IS THE
LIKELY OUTCOME. BURKE

.LONG TERM...ANOTHER IMPULSE ARRIVES SATURDAY AND ANOTHER ONE COMES
SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS AND EURO ARE IN BROAD AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS.
THE SUNDAY NIGHT SYSTEM...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...LOOKS
LIKE THE LAST IN THE SERIES. MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOKS MORE
SHOWERY AND TUESDAY LOOKS PRETTY DRY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN
BOTH MODELS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE EACH DAY. THERE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY OR WINDY CONDITIONS AT TIMES. BURKE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE MAIN PROBLEM THIS WEEK WILL BE HEAVY RAIN. THE
FIRST TWO STRONGER WAVES...MAINLY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...
COULD BRING ENOUGH RAIN TO THE OLYMPICS TO CAUSE MINOR FLOODING ON
THE SKOKOMISH RIVER IN MASON COUNTY. A FLOOD WATCH FOR THAT RIVER IS
IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE RAIN KEEPS COMING IN A SERIES OF WAVES...WHICH ALSO IMPLIES
THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE HEAVY RAIN. THAT MAY BE THE SAVING GRACE OF
WHAT WILL CERTAINLY BE A WET WEEK. THE 120-HOUR TOTAL...5 DAYS OF
RAIN...SHOWS 10-13 INCH BULLSEYES OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
1-4 INCHES IN THE LOWLANDS.
THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE ABOVE 5000 FEET
THE ENTIRE TIME WITH OCCASIONAL EXCURSIONS TO 7000 FEET OR HIGHER.

IF THAT AMOUNT OF RAIN FELL IN 48 HOURS OR LESS THERE WOULD ALMOST
CERTAINLY BE WIDESPREAD MAJOR FLOODING ON MANY RIVERS. SINCE THE
RAIN IS SPREAD OUT OVER FIVE DAYS RIVERS WILL RISE...POSSIBLY TO
FLOOD STAGE...BUT MAJOR FLOODING SEEMS UNLIKELY. WILL ISSUE A
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK COVERING MOST OF THE AREA. A MIDDLE GROUND AT
THIS POINT IS THAT THERE WILL BE MINOR FLOODING ON SOME RIVERS...BUT
BOTH NO FLOODING OR MAJOR FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
BURKE


Yeah I read the discussion too, I guess maybe the WPC's national map doesn't have enough resolution to show the difference between the 2-4 inches expected in the lower lands and the the 12 inches possible on the rainforest mountainous areas that are that much wetter on average.
The map makes it look deceivingly like the low lands like Seattle are also going to get over 12 inches, but I guess maybe because of map size and resolution, it's not their fault. It's just the nature of depicting a national map.


The whackadoo GFS shows D.C getting 10-12 inches.lololol.
Link
Quoting 84. Jedkins01:



Yeah I read the discussion too, I guess maybe the WPC's national map doesn't have enough resolution to show the difference between the 2-4 inches expected in the lower lands and the the 12 inches + possible on the rainforest mountainous areas that are that much wetter on average.
The map makes it look deceivingly like the low lands like Seattle are also going to get over 12 inches, but I guess maybe because it's a natural map, it's not their fault. It's just the nature of depicting a national map.

Yeah, I zoomed in, but could really only differentiate some color differentials hidden by all that black (lines and text). Tried to find something that just showed that region and expected rain on the NWS-Seattle site, but no luck. (It likely exists somewhere, but I'm a bit too tired to dig around for it.) It will be an interesting week to watch from afar, especially given the last line of the AFD:

"BOTH NO FLOODING OR MAJOR FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL"
Quoting 85. washingtonian115:

The whackadoo GFS shows D.C getting 10-12 inches.lololol.
Link

Someday Washi, someday it's going to be right and we are going to get hammered.
Quoting 87. 1Zach1:


Someday Washi, someday it's going to be right and we are going to get hammered.
You may like this image.The models have been very entertaining this winter
Quoting 83. Jedkins01:



The only problem with this though is that it shows only total rain needed, southern California doesn't get nearly as much rain as northern California, they are 2 different climates.

It is possible for parts of northern California to actually make up for that much rain given the climate if a wetter than usual patter were to continue leading to wetter than average years for the next few years, whereas parts of southern California will struggle to overcome the much less rain amounts needed do to it being a much drier climate.

One thing that's strange about this map though is that it claims central Florida is 5-10 inches deficit. I'm not sure where this comes from, because I don't see much in the way of below normal rain for year totals the past few years. South Florida has been a bit below, but most rain gauges I've checked have finished near or above normal the past few years. I'm just not buying that based on data.


A map with better resolution might do more justice to the story, Jedkins. Here in SE Cape Coral I got rain in about 4 months last year: Some in April (which is totally uncharacteristic), a good bit in July, and a good bit in September. Then in late December we had one or two good rains at my place. That's been it! January was a colossal disappointment, watching front after front dry out right offshore in the Gulf, pass over us, and sometimes beginning to rain again once it got deeper into the 'glades.

At my place it is frightfully dry. I wish we were allowed to run oscillating sprinklers to make up the difference -- but we're not, so I stood outside tonight after work and just held a hose wand over one section of my garden. Tomorrow I'll have to do another. The regular (i.e. "legal") irrigation here just cannot keep up with the needs when we're this dry.
Quoting 85. washingtonian115:



The whackadoo GFS shows D.C getting 10-12 inches.lololol.
Link
Gee, can't go 50 comments around here without a comment about DC:), or a comment from Snidely Remarque.
Quoting 58. Patrap:



Admittedly, us 55 and up have seen the warming first hand sadly.


I remember sleet here often in November.

Last true blue Norther here was Dec 89'.

11-14F





Saw snow that year on Christmas Eve..A rare event for S.W Florida..It snowed in 77 , and we had graupel in 96 ...
Quoting 72. bwi:

Whoa, potential for non-stop snow from Sunday morning through Tuesday. On the heels of a too-close-for-complete-dismissal coastal fly-by on Thursday.


So it will only snow once during the period Sunday-Tuesday :-)
Quoting 90. CosmicEvents:

Gee, can't go 50 comments around here without a comment about DC:), or a comment from Snidely Remarque.
Well by summer it'll be about Florida especially if a hurricane threatens.The only time D.C is discussed here is when its about politics.I'm trying to show another side of us :)
Quoting Jedkins01:


The only problem with this though is that it shows only total rain needed, southern California doesn't get nearly as much rain as northern California, they are 2 different climates.

It is possible for parts of northern California to actually make up for that much rain given the climate if a wetter than usual patter were to continue leading to wetter than average years for the next few years, whereas parts of southern California will struggle to overcome the much less rain amounts needed do to it being a much drier climate.

One thing that's strange about this map though is that it claims central Florida is 5-10 inches deficit. I'm not sure where this comes from, because I don't see much in the way of below normal rain for year totals the past few years. South Florida has been a bit below, but most rain gauges I've checked have finished near or above normal the past few years. I'm just not buying that based on data.

Spot on Jedkins. As of yesterday we were at 90% of normal Ppt, about 2 inches down, but we should have no problem making that up over the next few days. The grass is green, the redwoods are smiling, the reservoir is spilling over the top. How they can say we need 40-50 inches of rain to get back to normal is beyond me. Heck, our annual rainfall in Eureka is around 40 inches, and we've had half of that already since October 1st.
Quoting 68. Drakoen:

18z GFS has shifted south in line with the UKMET and GGEM for early next week's storm. I feel like i'm repeating myself for some reason.
The problem here is that the Bostonians have been so darn good at making interceptions this season against the Washingtonians and scoring all of the touchdowns. We need a better defense. It seems that all of the beginners(Alberta Clippers) in the team have scored us the most points for us thus far this season.

Scores:
The Bostonians-53 , The Washingtonians-8

Come on Washingtonians!

Okay I realize that the Bostonians are a higher scoring team(gets more snow on average) but still... let's go Washingtonians!


...................What are you all looking at?.....................
Best Wishes for Mid Cali for this Event.
Thanks for the informative Post Mr Henson.
Quoting 86. LAbonbon:


Yeah, I zoomed in, but could really only differentiate some color differentials hidden by all that black (lines and text). Tried to find something that just showed that region and expected rain on the NWS-Seattle site, but no luck. (It likely exists somewhere, but I'm a bit too tired to dig around for it.) It will be an interesting week to watch from afar, especially given the last line of the AFD:

"BOTH NO FLOODING OR MAJOR FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL"



Day 3 looks the worst






From


Winter Storm Linus Pedestrians navigate the snow, ice and puddles along a Manhattan street on Feb. 2, 2015 in New York City.
Quoting 97. nrtiwlnvragn:



Day 3 looks the worst






From

Thanks for posting that, and for the link. Spent a little while poking around the site. I like the way they have it presented day-by-day for different metrics. It's quite a bit different than the comparable site for my area, but I guess it would have to be, as the geography in the northwest introduces a complexity that does not exist here in Louisiana.

And it looks like Seattleites will have rain for the next 10 days...bummer for them.

And on that note, I'm headed to bed. Been under the weather all day, and can barely keep my eyes open...so it's a very early night for me.

Thanks again.

Night, all.
102. beell
lol
Quoting 98. hydrus:


Now we all know whats going to be the reality of this map..
Taking a vacation, bye guys.
Nice blog. One point I would add is, in the 1980's, manufacturing was strong in the US & our pollution helped cause a pretty massive drought in Africa due mainly to aerosols. The US Clean Air Act & the similiar policy in Europe helped the situation in Africa immensely. Then we shifted manufacturing mostly to unregulated China & now sit down wind from that..
110. beell
Al Gore's Secret Service Code Name when he was VP was..."Al Gore".
Very late good night hello from Germany with many thanks for the interesting entry, Mr. Henson! I'm very glad to see decent rains heading towards (northern parts of) California and hope they won't mean too much havoc because of flash floods. But better than nothing anyway!

It's way too late at my place for decent posts about world weather (in the northern hemisphere videos of very heavy snowfall from the US over mountainous regions in Europe up to northern Japan would prevail).

If you are interested in European weather, BBC has done the job for me today, blaming the jet stream once again:

Floods deluge western Mediterranean while snow hits Spain
BBC weather video, 3 February 2015 Last updated at 16:53
Flooding submerges parts of the western Mediterranean while 3 metre snow drifts close the border between France and Spain.
BBC Weather's Chris Fawkes has more on BBC World.


Moreover the biting weather rodent in Wisconsin is all over the media in Germany. Guess they'll have to create another category of predictions apart from "seeing its shadow" or not. "If the groundhog is biting this will mean for future climate ..."


The tornado forecasting workshop by Rich Thompson of the Storm Prediction Center is about to start.

Link
Quoting 105. PensacolaDoug:

BaltimoreBrian just got number 99 pulled for making a joke.

Umm, just had plussed his post (well aware that he was quoting you). I'm really far away from being a "denialist", but if a joke is good it should pass. In the last years we had to endure a lot of annoying and boring anti-GW posts in here which had been way less exhilarating, and they weren't removed. - Good night, and in case my first ban after many years of membership is looming: I'm out for the next hours anyway :-)
NASA's GEOS-5 has North & Central CA getting rain Thursday through Saturday. Nearly nothing for Southern CA.




Quoting 95. Tornado6042008X:

The problem here is that the Bostonians have been so darn good at making interceptions this season against the Washingtonians and scoring all of the touchdowns. We need a better defense. It seems that all of the beginners(Alberta Clippers) in the team have scored us the most points for us thus far this season.

Scores:
The Bostonians-53 , The Washingtonians-8

Come on Washingtonians!

Okay I realize that the Bostonians are a higher scoring team(gets more snow on average) but still... let's go Washingtonians!


...................What are you all looking at?.....................


Check why the blocking high over New England that we need for good snows here in the mid atlantic is ..uuhhh.. Deflated!
From the Miami NWS Disco...

UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS IN
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GULF WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LARGE
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN ACROSS THE PENINSULA ON THURSDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE LOPRES. LIKELY POPS FOR ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA...WITH ONSET TIME AS EARLY AS PRE-DAWN THURSDAY. LITTLE
DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR ROBUST CONVECTION...SO DESPITE UNUSUALLY HIGH
PWAT VALUES...EXPECT GENERALLY SHOWERS WITH LOW POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDER /MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION/. AFTER RELATIVELY WARM NIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY MAXIMA MAY PROVE TO A CHALLENGE TO
FORECAST...AS DIURNAL WARMING MAY BE SUPPRESSIVE IF WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS/SHOWERS ARE ONGOING DURING THE MORNING. ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING THURSDAY...THEN EXIT SE COAST AFTER SUNSET.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COOLER...DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES
OVER THE REGION. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL COMMENCE BY LATER FRIDAY AS
SFC RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE MID-ATLANTIC...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR A FEW COASTAL SHOWERS FRIDAY...BEFORE DRIER
LOW-LEVELS ADVECT IN FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY
MAXIMA...WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.

For West Palm Beach...

Interesting to note SSTs are rising along the Central California coast. Up to 59 F at the Monterey buoy, which would be a decent temperature even in late summer.
Quoting 48. sar2401:

Sure it could. It's probably just a matter of time with the right conditions. I watched the Oakland Hills firestorm as part of the command staff trying to fight it. The only thing that stopped the fire was the wind finally dying down. There was no human force on earth that could stop it, regardless of how many firefighters and borate bombers we had. If the wind kept up, it would have burned all the way through Berkeley, with the Bay finally stopping it. With enough fuel and the right weather conditions, fire always wins.


Given the wind direction, that firestorm was headed more into Oakland and even expensive Piedmont. The fire of 1926 was one that had a chance of razing Berkeley, but thankfully was stopped by a strong afternoon seabreeze.
Quoting 76. sar2401:



In the foreground is the world famous Claremont Resort Hotel. We had just evacuated about 400 guests and staff before this picture was taken. In the background, almost everything you see burning are multi-million dollar homes. The wind at ground level was blowing about 70 mph and about 90 mph closer to the fire.

That helicopter was being flown by one crazy but top notch CDF pilot who said he could make retardant drops ahead of the fire to try to save the Claremont. He took off with 400 gallons of retardant in the bucket hanging below the helicopter. He was able to make his drop and returned to the fire base. He walked up to the command post, shook his head, and said "Everything's gone. I almost put it in the ground twice. There's nothing I can do". He walked out, got in his car, and that was the last I saw of him that night.

It was a long, long night.





"There are old pilots, and there are bold pilots, but there are no old bold pilots."

That guy was lucky.

Sweet............. Long range Forecast of Rain on Saturday....
NASA's GEOS-5 also expects Southern CA to be covered over in Black Carbon while it misses out on the rain..

NAM 00z more optimistic about snow impacting central MD overnight Wednesday into Thursday Morning.
Quoting 120. evilpenguinshan:



"There are old pilots, and there are bold pilots, but there are no old bold pilots."

That guy was lucky.

So was the Hotel. Beautiful old all-wood structure. Used to have a direct train to San Francisco from just outside the lobby. Too pricey now for average folks.
Quoting 125. BaltimoreBrian:




Coating to an inch seems like a good bet.

Prep for next week ;)
Link

OU has a live stream of their first tornado forecasting class. It's about synoptics and lapse rates as well as the quality of observations. Stuff you should already know for the most part. ;)
Quoting 102. beell:

lol

I think that's a bannable offense around here...
Quoting BayFog:
Interesting to note SSTs are rising along the Central California coast. Up to 59 F at the Monterey buoy, which would be a decent temperature even in late summer.


Quoting 85. washingtonian115:



The whackadoo GFS shows D.C getting 10-12 inches.lololol.
Link
Good Evening everyone. One of the more recent and famous fools gold (ghost storm) GFS run. Serious question does this model still suffer from convective feedback? It's always mind boggling when time after time even in the medium range the GFS will show a pretty potent storm for a few runs only to take it away and for it not to materialize.

Quoting 68. Drakoen:

18z GFS has shifted south in line with the UKMET and GGEM for early next week's storm. I feel like i'm repeating myself for some reason.


GROUNDHOG DAY!!
Boston's 7-calendar-day snowfall record was also broken, with 40.5" / 1.03 meters of snow falling there from January 27 to February 2.

Link
when i went to my first S.F. giants game the pretty little boat posted above was parked next door. i would have rather gone on a tour of it then gone to the game...the game was cool but that boat OMG
:)
According to the 00z GFS the energy for the clipper for earlier next week is still way out in the Pacific Ocean and won't reach the west coast to get sampled until Saturday morning.
Damn GFS has it snowing 4-5 days straight up here on the Jersey Shore. I'm sick of the snow
for the last 3 nights there has been birds circling/flying around. i can't see them but they are making a ton of noise. don't birds sleep at night?
Place to find lots of data, for ocean temps, etc.
NOAA Nat'l Oceanographic Data Center - Coastal Water Temperature Guides. This is the Central Pacific Coast page, but you can navigate all over the U.S. from there. Fun place to play if you want average and current sea temps along all US coasts. Plus lots of other options for seacoast related data.

This is Monterey, CA (Go Toreadors, who wear the green and gold!) temperature graph from Jan 4- Feb 4, 2015. A little chopped up, but you get the drift. You can only graph 31 days at a time. Data tables also available. I just happen to like graphs.


The UKMET 00z is even farther south and west and more amplified. Looks like it would be a big hit for the Mid-Atlantic.
Quoting 139. Drakoen:

The UKMET 00z is even farther south and west and more amplified. Looks like it would be a big hit for the Mid-Atlantic.


Fingers crossed
Quoting 122. Skyepony:

NASA's GEOS-5 also expects Southern CA to be covered over in Black Carbon while it misses out on the rain..


I don't understand what that means - "covered over in Black Carbon."
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
I don't understand what that means.

Neither do I.
Quoting 140. VAbeachhurricanes:



Fingers crossed


Would prefer the high over eastern Canada to be a bit stronger but this set up is quite good.

I thought a low tracking over the Appalachians was not favorable for snow here.
Quoting 144. BaltimoreBrian:

I thought a low tracking over the Appalachians was not favorable for snow here.


If the 500mb trough was already negatively titled that would be a problem but it's not. The UKMET has it slightly positive tilted so it would track to the ENE instead of NE. If I had to extrapolate I would place it just east of the SE Virginia coast.

This trend in the UKMET is what we want to see this far out.
Quoting 141. Barefootontherocks:

I don't understand what that means - "covered over in Black Carbon."


Black Carbon consists of pure carbon in several linked forms. It is formed through the incomplete combustion of fossil fuels, biofuel, and biomass, and is emitted in both anthropogenic and naturally occurring soot
Quoting 146. whitewabit:



Black Carbon consists of pure carbon in several linked forms. It is formed through the incomplete combustion of fossil fuels, biofuel, and biomass, and is emitted in both anthropogenic and naturally occurring soot
Thanks for the definition. Now, how can Southern Calif be "covered over in black carbon" as was stated in the comment (122)? What is sensing what, and at what atmospheric levels? Can you explain the graphic and the statement? Or can Skyepony? Is there a fire burning? Is this vehicle exhaust? Believe me, there's less crud over L.A and the Inland Empire today than there was in 1975 - from 4500 ft down to the surface anyway.
Quoting 21. Patrap:

It was this date 56 years ago, that the Music Died.


Today in Media History: Delivering news about Buddy Holly and ‘the day the music died’





And Waylon Jennings missed this flight.


more snow


more snow o
Quoting 150. trunkmonkey:



And Waylon Jennings missed this flight.


I never knew that . Waylon is one of my all time favorites. RIP.
Quoting 153. FarmerKarl:



I never knew that . Waylon is one of my all time favorites. RIP.


Holly decided to charter a plane for himself, guitarist Tommy Allsup and Jennings so they could fly to Fargo, North Dakota, instead of taking the long, frozen bus trip. Richardson, who was suffering from the flu, asked Jennings for his seat on the plane, and Valens asked the same of Allsup. When Jennings told Holly that he was going to take the bus, Holly jokingly told him he hoped the bus broke down, to which Jennings replied, "I hope your ol' plane crashes."

"God almighty, for years I thought I caused it," the country legend said decades later in a CMT interview.


Read more: www.rollingstone.com...

Link
WATCH OUT IF YOU LIVE IN THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAYBE 12 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW!!
HRRR model is showing heavy rains and strong thunderstorms moving toward C FL this evening. Very likely a solid 2" rain event is on the way.



Very high rainfall amounts being depicted this area of rain heading for the northside of Tampa to Orlando corridor tonight.

Quoting 157. tampabaymatt:




Bulls-eye appears to be setting up for the northside of Tampa to Orlando to Cape Canaveral line. Basically the same set up since November repeating itself.
Next threat of heavy rains and maybe strong thunderstorms producing lots of hail Monday Night across C FL as 500mb temps are going to be around -15C to -16C.

Quoting 158. StormTrackerScott:



Bulls-eye appears to be setting up for the northside of Tampa to Orlando to Cape Canaveral line. Basically the same set up since November repeating itself.


Yes, same exact set-up as usual. I'm sure the next front that comes early next week will produce the same pattern.
Quoting 160. tampabaymatt:



Yes, same exact set-up as usual. I'm sure the next front that comes early next week will produce the same pattern.


Yup and here's the Euro for next Friday.

I am guessing some of you may have heard about the plane crash overnight in Taiwan that killed 23 people. According to a linked video, it seems like inclement weather at the time of the crash could have been a factor.

Link
Good Morning everyone.

SPC AC 041252

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0652 AM CST WED FEB 04 2015

VALID 041300Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
PENINSULA OF FLORIDA FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

...FL PENINSULA...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE A MIDLEVEL CYCLONE PROGRESSING ENEWD OVER
THE MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN. THIS FEATURE WILL DEVOLVE INTO AN
OPEN-WAVE DISTURBANCE AS IT CONTINUES TRACKING ENEWD NEAR THE GULF
COAST...AND WILL DEAMPLIFY WITHIN CONFLUENT FLOW ON THE SERN
PERIPHERY OF AN AMPLIFYING NERN-CONUS MIDLEVEL TROUGH. IN RESPONSE
TO THESE DEVELOPMENTS...A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE WILL DEVELOP ENEWD
ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO...BEFORE CROSSING THE FL PENINSULA
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. WEAK POLEWARD MASS FLUXES PRECEDING THE
SFC WAVE WILL NUDGE RICHER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE NWD...WITH MODEST
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE PENINSULA. HOWEVER...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE
UPPER 40S AND THE 50S ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA...PROSPECTS FOR
SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION WILL BE MINIMAL...AND STORMS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ROOTED ABOVE A NOCTURNAL STABLE LAYER. FURTHERMORE...THE LACK
OF SUBSTANTIAL CYCLOGENESIS AMIDST A DEAMPLIFYING MIDLEVEL WAVE
SHOULD PROVE DETRIMENTAL TOWARD THE SUPPORT OF ROBUST SFC-BASED
CONVECTION. AS SUCH...DESPITE 40-45-KT H5 SWLYS PROMOTING SUFFICIENT
DEEP SHEAR FOR SUSTAINED/MARGINALLY ORGANIZED STORMS AMIDST
NON-NEGLIGIBLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...SVR THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY.

...ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS...
CONVECTIVELY STABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOULD PRECLUDE
THUNDERSTORM FORMATION...WHILE CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR SURGES SWD/SEWD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/S-CNTRL CONUS.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 02/04/2015

Quoting 165. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Good Morning everyone.

SPC AC 041252

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0652 AM CST WED FEB 04 2015

VALID 041300Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
PENINSULA OF FLORIDA FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

...FL PENINSULA...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE A MIDLEVEL CYCLONE PROGRESSING ENEWD OVER
THE MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN. THIS FEATURE WILL DEVOLVE INTO AN
OPEN-WAVE DISTURBANCE AS IT CONTINUES TRACKING ENEWD NEAR THE GULF
COAST...AND WILL DEAMPLIFY WITHIN CONFLUENT FLOW ON THE SERN
PERIPHERY OF AN AMPLIFYING NERN-CONUS MIDLEVEL TROUGH. IN RESPONSE
TO THESE DEVELOPMENTS...A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE WILL DEVELOP ENEWD
ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO...BEFORE CROSSING THE FL PENINSULA
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. WEAK POLEWARD MASS FLUXES PRECEDING THE
SFC WAVE WILL NUDGE RICHER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE NWD...WITH MODEST
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE PENINSULA. HOWEVER...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE
UPPER 40S AND THE 50S ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA...PROSPECTS FOR
SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION WILL BE MINIMAL...AND STORMS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ROOTED ABOVE A NOCTURNAL STABLE LAYER. FURTHERMORE...THE LACK
OF SUBSTANTIAL CYCLOGENESIS AMIDST A DEAMPLIFYING MIDLEVEL WAVE
SHOULD PROVE DETRIMENTAL TOWARD THE SUPPORT OF ROBUST SFC-BASED
CONVECTION. AS SUCH...DESPITE 40-45-KT H5 SWLYS PROMOTING SUFFICIENT
DEEP SHEAR FOR SUSTAINED/MARGINALLY ORGANIZED STORMS AMIDST
NON-NEGLIGIBLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...SVR THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY.

...ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS...
CONVECTIVELY STABLE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOULD PRECLUDE
THUNDERSTORM FORMATION...WHILE CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR SURGES SWD/SEWD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/S-CNTRL CONUS.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 02/04/2015




These recent runs of the HRRR model look interesting as these bowing segments are being shown heading for the West Coast of FL this evening. One thing is for certain C FL is in for a lot of rain tonight maybe picking up our normal monthly rainfall for February tonight.



Quoting 147. Barefootontherocks:

Thanks for the definition. Now, how can Southern Calif be "covered over in black carbon" as was stated in the comment (122)? What is sensing what, and at what atmospheric levels? Can you explain the graphic and the statement? Or can Skyepony? Is there a fire burning? Is this vehicle exhaust? Believe me, there's less crud over L.A and the Inland Empire today than there was in 1975 - from 4500 ft down to the surface anyway.

Like with most global models we are seeing the concentration through the whole column of air, with no distinction if it is up high, near the surface or otherwise. To further clarify there is the term on there AOT = "Aerosol Optical Thickness" is the degree to which aerosols prevent the transmission of light by absorption or scattering of light.

As for what is sensing various aerosols in NASA's various Chemical Weather Maps (CHEMWX), that would be various satellites & some of their products.. MISR/TERRA, MODIS/AQUA, OMI/AURA & PARASOL. More inclusive list here & here.

"Covered over" might have been better put as moderate coverage.. I singled out Black Carbon because of it's discussion in the entry & effects on rain.

In the loop, it pretty much drifts in from the EPAC & sort of concentrates along Southern CA. Could be from incomplete burning of the cheaper fuels allowed offshore by ships or from CA to across the Pacific from fuel combustion or fires. It has both natural & human sources.

When checked against the CO Fossil Fuels Chem map, the concentration there is near moderate as well, weighting the probabilities that it is coming from incomplete burning of fossil fuels, from somewhere..



Double check biomass burning.. Good there.. Might should check to see if the fires have picked up in SFL & what are they burning in Louisiana? Pretty cool too in the loop here (which I can't easily link)..it shows the burning pretty much stop at night, like the models take into account how fires lay down at night.


Since it appears to be fossil fuel related we could check the SO2 concentrations. NASA's model does have a SO2 surface & total column models..so even without a research plane we can get some idea of if this maybe at the surface or not.

Sulfur dioxide (SO2) is one of a group of highly reactive gasses known as “oxides of sulfur.” The largest sources of SO2 emissions are from fossil fuel combustion at power plants (73%) and other industrial facilities (20%). Smaller sources of SO2 emissions include industrial processes such as extracting metal from ore, and the burning of high sulfur containing fuels by locomotives, large ships, and non-road equipment. SO2 is linked with a number of adverse effects on the respiratory system.

Surface concentration is approaching moderate there as well..


Total column is even higher..
168. MahFL
Quoting 150. trunkmonkey:



And Waylon Jennings missed this flight.


I never heard of him.
169. vis0
Great Caesars GHOST, i PASSED BY, BY ACCIDENT AND NOTICE I CAN STILL LOG IN (WASN'T BANNED...SOMEONES SLEEPING AT THE HELM?...DON'T WAKE HIM/HER UP) so, might as well add more crah-zee stuff.
CREDIT:: NOAA, Colorado State
TYPE:: WV
D&T:: on animation.

Huh
whats the VID for?
  FIRST THIS 2 month WEATHER TREND IS ENDING WITHIN A WEEK. Therefore if one wants to study how weather reacted elsewhere  "near by" as LOWS/fronts passed over the ml-d inner most area,  research weather satellites from ~mid December 2014 till the start of the ~2nd week of February 2015. The reason these 2 month anomalies are noticeable (compared to before 2009/10) is 'cause it has a STABLE CONSTANT weather formation to compare it against, the ml-d's influence. Since the ml-d is a CONSTANT form of an "oscillation" the natural oscillations in that they have ebbs & flow can be seen reacting to the constant ml-d when LOWs / fronts are interacting with the ml-d the most which is when LOWS/Fronts are near / over the NE of the USofA. Analogy?,  Place 2 fans opposing each aka facing each other. Set their speed to LOW.  Hold a few connected sheets of toilet paper (unused!...?) between the fans. Paper reacts evenly to a constant speed of air being moved, randomly going to n fro. Now turn one fan repeatedly ON/OFF to aka pulse it, while setting the other fan to medium. You'll see how the fan constantly ON at medium trumps in moving the toilet paper away from it. You just learned how the ml-d Trumps natural oscillation and will ask at the end of the month,  why is my electric bill so high. Was going to post a 1990 analogy in using blenders but figured some members here on WxU will add alcohol to the blenders and end up with a result like why do i see "20 dancing blenders".   On a serious note, will the next 2 month weather trend that begins near the end of  February be as the last? i do not know i no longer work
at figuring out Galacsics or Galacsics influences that led to knowing at ~90%+ the 7-8 year wxtrends of a HEALTHY Earth.  It could have a similar wxtrend or not lets watch what happens as it begins and see how weather at the 4 compass
points outside the ml-d' AOI react. Remember to once in a while check my "ml-d reset PAGE" to see if the ml-d is   resetting. Now here some VID explanations.
1- (00:00:01) The cursor (apparently had 8 cups of  re-caffeinated coffee) is APPROXIMATELY pointing out the inner most ml-d area of influence (AOI) over NYc
2- (00:00:02:0200ms) Then the cursor points out oncoming LOWS TOWARDS the ml-d inner most area.
3- (00:00:02:737ms) Please watch as the LOW begin to enter the ml-d innermost AOI that plumes of moisture NORTH of Cali bend more SE/southward.
4- (00:00:03) Please watch as NO LOW or front is over NYc the plumes in ePAC bend its trajectory back to go North of
California as the ml-d's influence goes back to cover its entire AOI and natures response / is to re build the "reply HIGHS" that some call the RiReRi (ridiculous resilient ridge).
5- (00:00:05) & (00:00:07) Watch as the small LOWs go over NYC how the plumes of moisture north of Cali bend ever so slightly more SE/S to re enter Cali.
6- As an extra assignment for SAR2401 look at how the weather also responds at all 4 compass points JUST OUTSIDE the entire ml-d AOIs (go find SAT imagery of Brasil, ATL...try downloading from (http://www.atmos.washington.edu/
then >Data&forecasts >WxLoops  >look for links you think should contain Brasil i.e. weather throughout the Globe.   i could have posted the URL but then its overused by some, its a education site so if overused, donate). The 4 compass points encompass  ePAC-western USofA (you already saw), central Canada, GoMx affecting USofA southern coast to Brasil & central Northern Atlantic. In those 4 areas watch as LOWS or Fronts become energized (ONLY FOR THE these 2 recent months) every time a LOW or front is OVER or ENTERING the NE of the USofA where the inner most AOI of the ml-d is hovering at. Also for SAR2401 see if winds either lower their force in coming from the North IN YOUR AREA or even shift to another direction AS a LOW/Front is over NYc. Notice how nice and even moisture built up W to E / E to W from Feb 2nd thru Feb 3rd 2015 over the Northern coast of GoMx then see if small fronts / LOWs kept going over my area, yet when the ml-d is unoccupied with LOWs / fronts near it flow of the GOMx is more N to S / S to N.   Read more at my ml-d reset PAGE blogbyte comments #39 -#40, and/or one of the last comments on Dr . Master blogbyte on Ridiculously Right Rodent Phil he just posted. (BTW certain animal ONLY predict (IF healthy & not bothered by humans) up to 2/3rds around of their "homes" view, in that 100% of that view is the horizon from their "home", birds fly so their "horzon" is a bit wider, so then use 66% of their nesting area to horizon but avg. in being up in the air. If you haven't guessed it yet 66% or 2:1 is very important to nature, as to Galacsics.   In short (ha short?!) 2 things::
1) The Atmospheric River readings till early/mid next week Feb ~9th/11 2015  will be contaminated by the ml-d influenincing & its domino affects. (read my blogbyte comments #29 thru #40 for further confusion or explanations. 

 2) From mid Dec 2014 thru mid Feb 2015 when ml-d innermost AOI is busy, LOWs either form or flow in an expected pattern at the 4 compass points OUTSIDE the ml-d AOIs (see graphic)   ml-d innermost  AOI is NOT busy  anything that suppresses LOWs from forming at/near the 4 compass points OUTSIDE the ml-d AIOIs gains "strength" be it a HIGH, SAL, sinking air, strong sheer etc. Then instead of natural oscillations working as expected they just give "blips" of energy but in MODELs being "taught"/programmed CORRECTLY to expect weather changes when lets say MJO comes by at 1 through 3 of its strength scale so MODELS develope a storm, the ml-d being constantly ON trumps the MJO signal and we get so called "ghost Storms". MODELs are doing fine its the ml-d that's throwing a monkey wrench into the forecasts. i took the time to analyze Sept 2014 thru Dec 2014 GFs models by removing the influences of the ml-d, since i suck at physics, i became stuck at 24 hours at page 5 of a ~25 pg readout so i passed it on to a friend whom knows physics (real friend in life not an eFriend) she figured it out in 2 days and saw a movie! plus had a good night sleep each day (wow) and showed me that without the ml-d ON at all, OLD GFS's, percentage of accuracy went up ~35% (error +/¯ 2%). If it didn't coast a dime i'd run the old GFS adding whatever wxtrend one see at the 4 compass points after 2WkAnoms end wait ~3 days for physical dimension to catch up to the next wxtrend then observe for a week the wxtrend add that trend to old GFS and watch the old GFs out perform NEW GFS & Euro, but i'm a nut so i'm a wrong as classic Ivory® (soap) is pure ...99.9%, INjoy
It is the Highest thinking mammal that treats the biosphere as a sewer.

...ain't no body feeling no pain'
NASA also has some Aerograms (like Meteograms but with more concentration on what aerosols are present) These show some distinction in height. They have several for CA.. Those can be viewed here.

This one is for CALWATER-Kernville
latest surface

Quoting 162. tampabaymatt:


Hi Tampa, Looks like a Modoki El Nino or La Nina trying to form.
175. bwi
6z GFS looks like perfect positioning for a major winter storm for DC/Baltimore. But too warm. Rain alas?
176. bwi
Rain for us, or at best very wet snow?
Patio furniture wundercam in Chestnut Hill, MA we've been watching.. Furniture is now a few feet under. Total loss til a good melt. There has been a cat or something small and light leaving tracks over the table & chairs, when it's not dumping snow.

good morning from sunny el paso....woke up to 40 degrees...and we're expecting a high of at least 70........an outrageous warm start to februaray......our monthly average high is 65 degrees...and our average high at the beginning of the month is 61......wish i could be assured there would be no freezing night temps as my garden is ready and i would plant this weekend
The first of several storm systems on track to drench the Pacific Northwest is working into the region this morning:

Quoting 177. Skyepony:

Patio furniture wundercam in Chestnut Hill, MA we've been watching.. Furniture is now a few feet under. Total loss til a good melt. There has been a cat or something small and light leaving tracks over the table & chairs, when it's not dumping snow.


gee there's going to be some flood issues when all that melts huh.
We have had a great winter near Tampa. Seems like the nicest days between fronts have been falling on Saturdays and Sundays this year, with the cold and windy days being Wednesdays and Thursdays.
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WEST GULF OF MEXICO WILL PUSH
TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWER CHANCES WILL
INCREASE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTH OF STATE ROAD 60
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...THEN WILL BECOME LIKELY TO WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH AS WELL AS DEADLY CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DRAGS A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.
THE FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BY MIDDAY THURSDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW A SOLID 12 TO 18 HOURS OF RAIN WITH MUCH OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA EXPECTED TO RECEIVE AN INCH OF RAIN. LOCAL AMOUNTS
OVER TWO INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THAT MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

Quoting 176. bwi:

Rain for us, or at best very wet snow?



We need to low to track farther south and east like the UKMET. The GFS has us at the pivot point which would mean rain/icy conditions with a changeover to snow.
From AGU:

HUGE 2014 BRITISH STORMS SHOOK CLIFFS MORE THAN EVER PREVIOUSLY RECORDED
4 Februarry 2015
Joint Release

WASHINGTON, D.C. – The violent winter storms that rocked the United Kingdom in 2014 had the power to physically shake cliffs to a degree in excess of anything recorded previously, according to a new study.

A team at Plymouth University in the United Kingdom used seismometers, laser scanning and video cameras to evaluate the impact of the massive waves – up to eight meters (26 feet) high – that struck the cliffs in Porthleven, West Cornwall, during January and February of last year.

In a paper accepted for publication in Geophysical Research Letters, a journal of the American Geophysical Union, the team from the Coastal Processes Research Group at Plymouth University found that the level of shaking was of an order of magnitude greater than ever previously recorded.

They also recorded 1,350 cubic meters (47,675 cubic feet) of cliff face being eroded along a 300-meter (984-foot) stretch of coastline in just two weeks – a cliff retreat rate more than 100 times larger than the long-term average.

Full article
Four feet of snow so far in the last ten days. I'm supposed to get another half foot tonight. I can now ski off my garage roof. Did I mention it's supposed to be -15F tomorrow night? At least slowly being buried in snow provides an insulation effect.
Good Morning. Here is the relative position of the Conus and Pacific jets that will help drive the weather over the next few days.
And the big picture; good short-term news for Cali; looks like a short-term Pineapple Express to me:


Prolonged period of wet weather forecast for Pacific Northwest and northern California


A weather system that's tapping into abundant moisture in the Pacific will bring moderate to heavy rainfall to the Pacific Northwest beginning Wednesday. The rain will spread into northern California on Thursday and is expected to continue through the weekend. Some areas could see in excess of 10 inches of rain through early Saturday.

However, it looks to be mostly rain precip due to the warmer conditions in the Pacific NW so it will provide short-term relief for the reservoirs but not much in the way of longer-term snow pack.
Redwood Coast Severe Watches & Warnings NOAA Weather Radio
Areal Flood Watch
Statement as of 3:47 AM PST on February 04, 2015
...Flood Watch in effect from Thursday evening through Friday evening...

The National Weather Service in Eureka has issued a

* Flood Watch for a portion of northwest California...including the following areas...Mendocino coast...Mendocino interior... north coast interior and Redwood coast.

* From Thursday evening through Friday evening

* a strong frontal boundary will bring 3 to 6 inches of rain to the area. Local amounts to 8 inches are possible over higher terrain and on the southwest facing slopes.

* Rivers and small streams will rise rapidly and low lying areas may become flooded.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on current forecasts.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.


Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/US/CA/001.html#jYtxXwT 7ujbRQDhb.99
Quoting 132. DCSwithunderscores:

Boston's 7-calendar-day snowfall record was also broken, with 40.5" / 1.03 meters of snow falling there from January 27 to February 2.

Link


Note that the average rate of snowfall during this 7-day period of 40.5" / 7 day = about 5.79 "/day is greater than average rate of snowfall during the 10-day period of 47.9" / 10 day = 4.79 "/day.

It is possible for every 7-day period within a 10-day period to have a greater average snowfall rate than the 10-day period. For example, if the snowfall on 10 consecutive days in feet is 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, respectively, then the average rate of snowfall during the 10-day period is 4 ft / 10 day = 0.40 ft/day, and the average rate of snowfall during each 7-day period within that 10-day period is 4 ft / 7 day = about 0.57 ft/day.

It is possible for every 7-day period within a 10-day period to have a lesser average snowfall rate than the 10-day period. For example, if the snowfall on 10 consecutive days in feet is 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1, 1, respectively, then the average rate of snowfall during the 10-day period is 6 ft / 10 day = 0.60 ft/day, and the average rate of snowfall during each 7-day period within that 10-day period is 3 ft / 7 day = about 0.43 ft/day.

It is possible for at least one 7-day period within a 10-day period to have a greater average snowfall rate than the 10-day period and at least one 7-day period within the same 10-day period to have a lesser average snowfall rate than the 10-day period. For example, if the snowfall on 10 consecutive days in feet is 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, respectively, then the average rate of snowfall during the 10-day period is 5 ft / 10 day = 0.50 ft/day, the average rate of snowfall during the first 7-day period within that 10-day period is 5 ft / 7 day = about 0.71 ft/day, and the average rate of snowfall during the last 7-day period within that 10-day period is 2 ft / 7 day = about 0.29 ft/day.
of recent its hot or cold because of this and warmer than usual waters offshore calif look for repeat or worse episodes than the one beginning now hopefully they last well into april.
@Skyepony, comment 167 and 172.
Thanks for the reply.

I get this is satellite data. I get the aerosol concept. I imagine pollen and volcanic ash in that category but I could be wrong. I get that we have no idea from looking at the various "pollution models" (my phrase meaning Black Carbon, S02, Biomass burn and/or others that may be available) that we are looking through the entire atmosphere from space that and we can have no idea at what atmospheric level this/these aerosol(s) are present - unless we can find them on a meteogram, which is, I'm guessing real time data, not a model? Oops. Nope. The link at 172 goes to model data, looks like anyway. And, btw, there are no options at that link to view an area where you pointed out the pollution. Interesting about sulphur dioxide atmospheric levels being available. They been tracking SO2 for decades. (See below)

Glad you explained the basis of your comment for me and for the general public.

I want to add two huge factors influence the levels of air pollution where you see it concentrated most on any of the pollution model maps (add: in the area of Los Angeles). Well, two huge factors other than the millions of people whose lifestyle includes driving, driving, driving.

1. Geography, a basin bordered by mountains.
2. Weather, particularly prevailing wind, temperature and inversion layer.


Anyone reading your initial comment that out about an area of "pollution" as viewed by a model (a good model which is likely used to make air quality forecasts) might have been taken aback by your statement related to black carbon covering SoCal. Perhaps now those who read here understand a little better what you meant. I do. Thanks again.

You wrote: "Covered over" might have been better put as moderate coverage.. I singled out Black Carbon because of it's discussion in the entry & effects on rain."
Thanks for explaining that. Sorry, I didn't and I don't see 'Black carbon" referred to in the blog entry. Perhaps you mean some other entry. Not to worry. I pretty much get where you're coming from.

For a little historical perspective... original Broadway cast- 1968 I think. Thanks again for explaining the meaning in your comment. Have a nice day, as they say in L.A. ;)
Welcome sulphur dioxide... hello carbon monoxide...

(typos corrected; embed changed to link after posting; other changes as noted)
GFS 12z looks ugly for the Mid-Atlantic. Even though the low track is farther south (down to the NC/SC border), the cold air is just absent as it has been all season. While the 500mb wavelength pattern is favorable, the heights are not anomalously favorable.
17 JAN 2013: ANALYSIS

Black Carbon and Warming:

It’s Worse than We Thought

A new study indicates soot, known as black carbon, plays a far greater role in global warming than previously believed and is second only to CO2 in the amount of heat it traps in the atmosphere. Reducing some forms of soot emissions — such as from diesel fuel and coal burning — could prove effective in slowing down the planet’s warming.
by carl zimmer

"The new estimate of black carbon’s heat-trapping power is twice that made by the IPCC."

The big result that jumps off the page is that black carbon plays a much bigger role in global warming than many scientists previously thought. According to the new analysis, it is second only to carbon dioxide in the amount of heat it traps in the atmosphere. The new estimate of black carbon’s heat-trapping power is about twice that made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2007.

This result suggests that cutting black carbon emissions could go a long way to slowing climate change. But the authors of the new study warn that we’ll need to be careful about the sort of black
carbon we choose to cut. “There’s a significant potential, but you have to be very targeted,” said co-author Sarah Doherty of the University of Washington.

Soot is made up of tiny dark particles. When it rises from fires, it mixes with dust, sulphates, and other material rising from the ground. As it ascends through the atmosphere, it can drift into clouds, mixing with the water droplets. Rain and snow then wash out the black carbon particles and bring them back to Earth.

Along the way, black carbon exerts all sorts of influences, some of which help warm the atmosphere and some of which cool it. When sunlight strikes black carbon, its dark hue causes it to heat up, something like the way a black tar roof gets hot on a sunny day. When black carbon falls on ice and snow, it smudges their bright white reflective surfaces. As a result, less sunlight bounces back out to space, leading to more warming.

In clouds, black carbon has a dazzling number of effects. “The more we study it, the more mechanisms people find,” says Doherty.
Perth has been getting hammered by thunderstorms the past few days. One person found dead after being struck by lightening.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-04/man-dead-af ter-lightning-strike-in-bayswater/6069418?WT.ac=st atenews_wa

Lots of major bush fires started by lightening. Several towns are in danger and are being evacuated.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-04/house-destr oyed-northcliffe-windy-harbour-evacuated-bushfire/ 6068256?section=wa
Quoting 186. tlawson48:

Four feet of snow so far in the last ten days. I'm supposed to get another half foot tonight. I can now ski off my garage roof. Did I mention it's supposed to be -15F tomorrow night? At least slowly being buried in snow provides an insulation effect.
good point there..stay warm.
Wonder if they'll have to postpone the SeaDogs home opener...

Quoting 186. tlawson48:

Four feet of snow so far in the last ten days. I'm supposed to get another half foot tonight. I can now ski off my garage roof. Did I mention it's supposed to be -15F tomorrow night? At least slowly being buried in snow provides an insulation effect.
197. Patrap
Ok. So, vehicles that use gas don't go into the black carbon mix? Coal's not been burned for heat in that area that I'm aware of, and you hardly need any heat compared to most places. Natural gas. Yeah. By looking at that graphic, it's hard to figure what this "black carbon" over L.A. is from. Lots of cooking? Does it blow in on the ocean breeze from elsewhere and sit under the inversion layer till it clears? Do you have a clue? TIA.
Please, direct yer mood towards the data.

Im preparing for Carnival here, thanx.
Quoting 201. Barefootontherocks:

197. Patrap
Ok. So, vehicles that use gas don't go into the black carbon mix? Coal's not been burned for heat in that area that I'm aware of, and you hardly need any heat compared to most places. Natural gas. Yeah. By looking at that graphic, it's hard to figure what this "black carbon" over L.A. is from. Lots of cooking? Does it blow in on the ocean breeze from elsewhere and sit under the inversion layer till it clears? Do you have a clue? TIA.


Google refining crude Oil.

Carbon Catalyst do all the heavy werk there.
Quoting 194. Drakoen:

GFS 12z looks ugly for the Mid-Atlantic. Even though the low track is farther south (down to the NC/SC border), the cold air is just absent as it has been all season. While the 500mb wavelength pattern is favorable, the heights are not anomalously favorable.


I was wondering what the models indicated for Southern Ontario/SW Ontario on the weekend time frame. We got dumped on Sunday (foot or more of snow in some areas) - and some folks are indicating we may get dumped on again
Quoting 205. stribe37:



I was wondering what the models indicated for Southern Ontario/SW Ontario on the weekend time frame. We got dumped on Sunday (foot or more of snow in some areas) - and some folks are indicating we may get dumped on again


Might as well start preparing from now....
Quoting 207. Drakoen:



Might as well start preparing from now....


I take that to mean we're in for another significant snowfall event. Right now, our private weather broadcaster is only forecasting 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) for Southern Ontario.. which is a modest snow event, but manageable. Not sure exactly which model they favour right now.
Quoting 203. Patrap:

Please, direct yer mood towards the data.

Im preparing for Carnival here, thanx.

:D
Quoting 200. HaoleboySurfEC:

Wonder if they'll have to postpone the SeaDogs home opener...



The home opener in April? This would have to be one heck of a winter...
Quoting 209. LAbonbon:


:D


Me Big Chief me feeling good
Barefoot~

This map is total..everything, including dust, sea salt..makes Southern CA look fine..Those higher concentration areas across the Great Lakes and Gulf of Mexico are sulfate.




Yeah those Meteogram & Aerograms are mostly models, though the present when initialized should be pretty close to real data.. The research programs mentioned in the entry has been useful in calibrating these sort of things.
The details in the links to those research programs, in the entry was where the heavy mention of Black carbon was.

Great points about the contributing factors that cause certain aerosols to concentrate there..& people there seem to be aware of it as you say. The drought in parts of Africa in the 1980s had it's own set of contributing factors that were concentrating aerosols, including ocean and atmospheric currents that caused Ethiopia in particular to suffer the worst.
Incoming.
Mon Plume'



12z Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model soundings for Tampa Bay dancing lines style:



And the Composite Reflectivity:

Quoting 203. Patrap:

Please, direct yer mood towards the data.

Im preparing for Carnival here, thanx.

Prepare well, and have a Blast.
Things are warming up here too....
Quoting 181. LargoFl:

gee there's going to be some flood issues when all that melts huh.


The DC blizzards of 2010 left a 2-4" water equivalent in the snowpack. However this melted off over a period of three weeks with little rain or warm weather.

The situation that would most likely cause flooding is a warm moderate or heavy rain on top of that snowpack causing rapid melting as well as rainfall runoff. The January 1996 blizzard in DC melted off this way with a generalized 2-4" rain on top of a 2" liquid equivalent snowpack with dewpoints well into the 50s and sensible temperatures in the low 60s. THis destoyed the snowpack in a single night and caused massive flooding. A similar setup in 2003 but with cooler rain also caused flooding, less epic but still a big deal.
Quoting 194. Drakoen:

GFS 12z looks ugly for the Mid-Atlantic. Even though the low track is farther south (down to the NC/SC border), the cold air is just absent as it has been all season. While the 500mb wavelength pattern is favorable, the heights are not anomalously favorable.


Define "ugly"
Quoting 216. pottery:


Prepare well, and have a Blast.
Things are warming up here too....



All Hail Pottery's Carnival'

Cheer's,






Quoting 219. Patrap:




All Hail Pottery's Carnival'

Cheer's,









:):))
Storm Total's

Sorry the the Sierra snow level will remain high for most of the coming AR... Would have been nice establishing a deep snowpack locking in all that moistiahhhh
Quoting 203. Patrap:

Please, direct yer mood towards the data.

Im preparing for Carnival here, thanx.
If that's addressed to me. I am not directing any mood at you or anyone. I am trying to understand the data that's posted without explanation to those of us who don't get the jargon.
Quoting 204. Patrap:



Google refining crude Oil.

Carbon Catalyst do all the heavy werk there.
Okay. Refineries make sense. The only questions I have now are where do oil refineries fall in that pie graph you posted (add: at 197). Biomass? And what is the extent of their contribution to black carbon? btw, I don't google. Got a better search engine. Thanks for being so helpful. (edit: Joke removed.)

image source: energy.ca.gov
Quoting 218. georgevandenberghe:



Define "ugly"


I thought the sentence afterwards would have shed some light on "ugly". I meant that it looks like another cold rain storm while people farther north cash in.


wow look at this storm on the west coast
There is a pretty large cloud cover-rain shield area ahead of the front as it heads towards Florida (been overcast, drizzly and cool here in the Big Bend all day)...............Not thinking that there will be much "bang" with this system as it makes the Florida peninsula later this evening, and well past maximum daytime heating, but we can always use the rain.
 
Happened back 2001 I think. I remember I did a canoe race on April Fools Day in the mountains and the river was impassable in spots (choked with ice and snow). Had to portage around certain sections.

Sea Dogs I believe had to postpone their opener that year. I think the snow was removed in time, but the bigger issue was they could not dry out the field enough for play. I remember they brought in helicopters to fly over the field to aid the drying process.

Someone please correct me if I got the year wrong.

Quoting 210. LAbonbon:


The home opener in April? This would have to be one heck of a winter...
Quoting tampabaymatt:


NWS has 70% tonight and 80% tomorrow for my area. Rainfall accumulations (1.0"-1.5").

I'll just wait and see what happens.
Fingers crossed for you.

Quoting 232. Sfloridacat5:



NWS has 70% tonight and 80% tomorrow for my area. Rainfall accumulations (1.0"-1.5").

I'll just wait and see what happens.
A 5.1 'quake here this morning.
Good thing I was moving around and did not feel it.
I hate it when Terra Firma starts to wobble about.
Makes a man feel sort of Mortal......
Quoting 229. hurricanes2018:



wow look at this storm on the west coast


It's bringing the AR California needs. They'll at least get temporary drought relief.
Snowing at a rate of just over 1 inch an hour here in Central Illinois this morning .. 3 inches of new snow on the ground .. on top of the 10-12 from the storm last week ..


A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 5 PM CST this afternoon.

* Timing...snow will develop during mid morning over the Illinois River valley and southeast toward I-72 by midday. Expect periods of moderate snow at times from late morning into the afternoon before ending by sunset.

* Accumulations...2 to 4 inches of snow mainly from I-55 northwest.

* Impacts...untreated roads will become snow covered and visibilities will be down to a half mile or less in periods of heavier snow. Gusty north to northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph will produce some blowing and drifting of snow.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means that periods of snow will cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered roads and limited visibilities...and use caution while driving.

Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/US/IL/029.html#A5M2ZGE B9vl9vZlC.99
Yup, confirmed 2001 and it also happened again in 2007.

Can't post link but here it is:

http://www.pressherald.com/2013/04/16/2001-becket t-brings-it/

Josh Beckett brought up that season.

Quoting 231. HaoleboySurfEC:

Happened back 2001 I think. I remember I did a canoe race on April Fools Day in the mountains and the river was impassable in spots (choked with ice and snow). Had to portage around certain sections.

Sea Dogs I believe had to postpone their opener that year. I think the snow was removed in time, but the bigger issue was they could not dry out the field enough for play. I remember they brought in helicopters to fly over the field to aid the drying process.

Someone please correct me if I got the year wrong.


240. vis0
LOW quality reproduction image from Colorado WV loop.

See that blip (greenish-blue) of moisture west of NJ, that will add ~6 hrs of curving the moisture just North of CA towards northern CA.  Then moisture will starting heading more to Canada/Wash St. BUT see the 2 systems  heading towards NYc area the quicker they get over /nearer NYc the higher the odds northern CA get 1-2.60 days of Atmospheric River (are you sure El Niño en el Baño didn't overflow el toilèt) The longer either of these stays over NYc (the inner most AOI of the ml-d) the more AR,  CALIFORNIA gets, even central CA.  NOT FACT JUST my 22 centavos which in US currency is half the lint in my belly button...how much? lets just say the other half i'm using to knit a comforter for my 6'8 cuz.

(the cyan arrows, its for another country's website (private server sorry) one of my last Galacsic classes before i retire worldwide from teaching Galacsics.


Wxrisk.com
9 mins ·
FEB 9-10 LOW.. SHIFTS NORTH .. what else is new ?-- 12z GFS EURO CANADA ...MODELS ALL SHOW POSSIBLE MAJOR SNOWSTORM over northern half of PA ...NY state .. NYC Long Island all of New England ... amounts over 1 foot.
SOUTH of DC. Sunny !!!

Wow nature! and I thought they said you were full of surprises!
Quoting 242. washingtonian115:


Wxrisk.com
9 mins ·
FEB 9-10 LOW.. SHIFTS NORTH .. what else is new ?-- 12z GFS EURO CANADA ...MODELS ALL SHOW POSSIBLE MAJOR SNOWSTORM over northern half of PA ...NY state .. NYC Long Island all of New England ... amounts over 1 foot.
SOUTH of DC. Sunny !!!

Wow nature! and I thought they said you were full of surprises!


We know better than to expect snow here.

It's been copy and paste since December.
Quoting washingtonian115:

Wxrisk.com
9 mins %uFFFD
FEB 9-10 LOW.. SHIFTS NORTH .. what else is new ?-- 12z GFS EURO CANADA ...MODELS ALL SHOW POSSIBLE MAJOR SNOWSTORM over northern half of PA ...NY state .. NYC Long Island all of New England ... amounts over 1 foot.
SOUTH of DC. Sunny !!!

Wow nature! and I thought they said you were full of surprises!


I lived in the D.C. area for 16 years and I remember several Winters when we saw basically no snow at all.

I also remember Winters when we had several really good snows. One year it was like a Winter wonderland. The neighborhood lake was frozen about a foot thick with daily hockey games after school and there was snow on the ground for about a month straight.
Quoting 235. TimTheWxMan:



It's bringing the AR California needs. They'll at least get temporary drought relief.

Oddly, most locales around the Bay Area are still above normal for ppt thanks to the December event. This one will put us well above normal.
'Snow without end' pic takes me back to what I referred February days like that as the 'doldrums of winter'. I lived in the sub-tundra climes of Chicago & Lansing MI until leaving it all for good in 1971 - and now I confront (ha-ha) 'winter' from the 'valley of the sun' aka: Phoenix, sunny-blue and 82 February weather. Actually 78 today and low to mid 80's coming in a few days.

Anyways, nice picture! Still sends shivers after all these years.

Russ
Quoting 225. JNFlori30A:

Sorry the the Sierra snow level will remain high for most of the coming AR... Would have been nice establishing a deep snowpack locking in all that moistiahhhh


There should nonetheless be some pretty hefty runoff for the reservoirs during and after this event. Not a total bust.



i will watch this low because if this storm off littie to the west maybe adding more snow for the northeast
who is ready for more snow on thursday and the weekend
Heavier, Coastal Snow to Hit New England
At this time, the forecasting team at AccuWeather anticipates that these systems will remain separate while snow is falling across much of the Northeast. The clipper system will continue to bring a wave of lighter snow from the Ohio Valley into northern parts of the mid-Atlantic, but it will be pushed farther north as the Gulf Coast system advances northward, bringing a few snow showers from Long Island through most of southern New England Wednesday night into Thursday morning.
Quoting 243. Drakoen:



We know better than to expect snow here.

It's been copy and paste since December.
Hopefully we get some interesting weather this late Spring and summer.I hope we're in a full Spring pattern by March.I remember 2012 around here didn't have a exciting winter but the summer made up for it and as everyone knows eventually Sandy....2010 had a early Summer.I remember days in the 90's in April.

246. Century25
The weather sounds beautiful in Arizona this time of year.


Model shows axis of strong Pacific jet onshore at about Point Arena north of the Bay Area on Saturday.
Quoting 249. hurricanes2018:

who is ready for more snow on thursday and the weekend


me!
Quoting 253. Dragod66:



me!
lets see if we can reach 10 feet
Well.. for us folks in Southern Ontario - the GFS wants to put another big snow event bullseye on us thru the upcoming weekend/Monday.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
302 PM EST Wed Feb 4 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

An upper level PV anomaly along the southern Gulf coast of Texas is helping develop a weak area of low pressure at the surface in the western Gulf. North and east of this developing low, models are showing low level isentropic ASCENT along the Gulf coast, which is keeping us cool and cloudy with periods of light to moderate rain. The upper level PV anomaly will slowly steer the low pressure system east-northeastward, which will periods of rain through tonight. The rain will begin to taper off from west to east by daybreak.


You can see the low about to push off the Texas coast moving towards LA in the WV shot below:
Quoting 255. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

lets see if we can reach 10 feet

Go for it.... a tarantula has 8.

100 feet and you'll be a Millipede.
Quoting 254. tampabaymatt:




NWS has 100% pops for the Tamp Ba area AND 1-2 inch rainfall forecast. With the surface low storm track passing clsoe to the Tampa Bay area, and upper divergence from the jet right overhead combined with deep moisture, seems like a solid soaking rain with some heavier embedded convection is a good bet. Thunderstorms will likely remain mostly offshore due to weak instability over the shelf waters and land areas.
Quoting 256. stribe37:

Well.. for us folks in Southern Ontario - the GFS wants to put another big snow event bullseye on us thru the upcoming weekend/Monday.
ya it will likely happen will know more better by late tomorrow early Friday as whats too come for weekend
Quoting 259. pottery:


Go for it.... a tarantula has 8.

100 feet and you'll be a Millipede.
100 feet and iam coming to your house till it melts
Quoting 262. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

100 feet and iam coming to your house till it melts

My house is going to melt ????

:):))
another arctic blast on the way as soon as the front drops a little further se ward cold tonight down to -16c too -18c for lows

You have your Geography all mixed up, Keeper.
We don't do Igloo's down here.
They are from your neck of the woods.....

:):))
Quoting 265. pottery:

You have your Geography all mixed up, Keeper.
We don't do Igloo's down here.
They are from your neck of the woods.....

:):))
I meant the 100 feet of snow melts up here

The most recent chart already has the low in the Gulf:

Aviation Image
Torched up to 54 today. If only it would stay like this.
Quoting 260. Jedkins01:



NWS has 100% pops for the Tamp Ba area AND 1-2 inch rainfall forecast. With the surface low storm track passing clsoe to the Tampa Bay area, and upper divergence from the jet right overhead combined with deep moisture, seems like a solid soaking rain with some heavier embedded convection is a good bet. Thunderstorms will likely remain mostly offshore due to weak instability over the shelf waters and land areas.


Kind of seems a little contradictory by the NWS to state we will get that much rain but that thunderstorms will remain offshore.
Quoting 267. weathermanwannabe:

The most recent chart already has the low in the Gulf:

Aviation Image


81.9F here now. Definitely some warmth out ahead of this storm.
Quoting 271. TimSoCal:

81.9F here now. Definitely some warmth out ahead of this storm.


Quoting 264. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

another arctic blast on the way as soon as the front drops a little further se ward cold tonight down to -16c too -18c for lows




Models show that snow over the Northern tier of the country weakening as it moves to the southeast. We might squeeze out a flurry here.
Quoting 273. Drakoen:



Models show that snow over the Northern tier of the country weakening as it moves to the southeast. We might squeeze out a flurry here.
we got nothing out of it here very light saltable snow no shovel
Quoting 266. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I meant the 100 feet of snow melts up here



Yep, I knew that.
Was just being 'confused'.... :):))
Wow
Quoting 268. Drakoen:

Torched up to 54 today. If only it would stay like this.
I know! beautiful afternoon and I could leave the heavy coat in the truck.A lot more people down on the mall today as well to take advantage of this weather before the dull cold comes back.Sat outside during break with some co-workers and noticed small buds on the trees.
Quoting 276. pottery:


Yep, I knew that.
Was just being 'confused'.... :):))
just got too Relax Until March everything will be fine
Quoting 280. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

just got too Relax Until March everything will be fine

Brilliant !
:):))
Laters>>>>>>
Hey, everyone.

Today is storm prep day. I'm actually typing from up on the roof, doing shingle repair and screwing down batten boards - lamer previous owner roofing job used 1" shingle nails. Dorks.

Anyway, the roof corners (just the shingles; the roof itself is solid) most damaged are the prevailing storms from our two varieties. I'm concentrating on the south edge and southwest corners. The other kind of storm hits thethe north edge and northwest corner.

My question - being I'm Churchill county, NV - are the strongest winds likely to loop around during the last half of the storm? I'd rather save that repair for another day, not sure I'll have time tomorrow. Any suggestions would be appreciated.
C'mon Keep it's not so bad here, finally looking like winter again. Had felt like winter for a while already. Though this new storm will likely push off my snowboarding trip again...
284. vis0

Quoting 170. Patrap:

It is the Highest thinking mammal that treats the biosphere as a sewer.


i'm a bit late..."Highest thinking mammal"
If i may preach to the choir.  Highest thinking is not the same as wisest thinking.
Why i categorize everything that forms naturally as alive and as follows:: (see just me beginning to type of a theory of mine causes some of the so called "Highest thinking " mammals to leave yet the plant in my room, the bird out my window are still here...okay so they don't understand qwerty)
i categorize life as (i'm actually posting the full names + shrthnds of the categories as i'm no longer explaining my theories) closed-least complex (ClLa-Cmplx), least to least complex (LaLa-Cmplx), least to less complex (LaLs-Cmplx) , less to most (LsMo-Cmplx) & most to ethereal complex MoEt-Cmplx.
Complex in its "vis0's" definition means there a lot of stuff going on in our (humans) heads and part of that is we've developed the freedom to think for ourselves be it good or bad.
A LaLa to LsMo complex animal flows with nature to survive, eat & procreate. Humans  have the freedom to eat as they choose (do not confuse this with less complex animals as sheep which will graze till one has to 'pop" there belly skin, otherwise they die from over grazing, they know not of Atkins...mmmm suculant lam-...oops not good to mention fav foods here) We know its not good to over eat (excuse me while i take a bite of my 89th Doritos® chip while typing this...burrp) but we over eat and while watching others of our own species starve.  If attack we defend ourselves, but also attack the defenseless be it physically or by using ones wealth to take away from the poor/working middle class, that includes the "taking" of clean air we all need to live healthfully. And finally (you in the back stop giggling) from the point of view of a space alien it seems humans practice procreating several hundred times even by themselves before they actually procreate.
Humans are complex beings trying to learn by themselves (without the direct help of nature) through experience all the way through the sciences of physics on how to enjoy their needs without ruining the needs of others. So far we were learning at a good pace but seem to be stumbling as has happened before in modern man's history EXCEPT this stumble is being passed on to our children & THEIR children...i hope they can catch on to something (be it an invention or a deeper conscience) before they fall ...back into the LaLs or even further back and man will lose the soul-spirit link if EARTH LOSES A CERTAIN PORTION OF THE purer ELEMENTS WITHIN. Why if one is religious or believes in reincarnation or atheist one is to take care of Mother Earth and leave it better or no worse than when you began to enjoy its fruits. Ya read it hear first for the millionth time. 
BTW: ClLa are things as stones, water things that seem not to have life (by ITSELF) but do, its just so slow that due to our faster thinking brain we can't take the time to notice 
....154 chip...
Quoting 236. whitewabit:

Snowing at a rate of just over 1 inch an hour here in Central Illinois this morning .. 3 inches of new snow on the ground .. on top of the 10-12 from the storm last week ..



Just started in S C IL, had shown us in 1-2" range. Has dropped from 32 to to 24 in last 3hrs, single digit lows expected as clears out and high sends Canadian air S. Pressure already on way up, winds from N-NW 8-15 w/ 24 gust (so far). Should be fun commute in metro StL as they're starting too. Only an 1", 1.5", but right at rush. At least they dropped the last of the old chain of rocks canal bridges earlier and have I-270 back open.
Will be going on our Ski trip 2/13-2/16.We will finally be seeing real snow all while doing some great family activities like snow tubing.Snow on a mountain is much more beautiful than in the city.
Quoting 251. washingtonian115:

Hopefully we get some interesting weather this late Spring and summer.I hope we're in a full Spring pattern by March.I remember 2012 around here didn't have a exciting winter but the summer made up for it and as everyone knows eventually Sandy....2010 had a early Summer.I remember days in the 90's in April.

246. Century25
The weather sounds beautiful in Arizona this time of year.


I set out a tomato plant March 15 2012 in College Park. The soil was warm already and in the next ten days
it grew six inches and set a fruit.. in March!
I had to protect it against a 3/27 Arctic outbreak (buried it in leaves) and several frosts in early April (threw a cover over it) but it overall thrived and grew well and produced my earliest fruit ever 6/3/2012.

This year my tomato plants are about 1.5" high and on schedule for late April planting. I've been busy and am late with early broccoli, seeded onions, and the seed order.
Quoting 283. hurricanehunter5753:

C'mon Keep it's not so bad here, finally looking like winter again. Had felt like winter for a while already. Though this new storm will likely push off my snowboarding trip again...
true
Quoting 277. opal92nwf:

Wow

yep a lot of heavy rain coming opal
Quoting 269. tampabaymatt:



Kind of seems a little contradictory by the NWS to state we will get that much rain but that thunderstorms will remain offshore.


It may seem so but it's not, lift from the surface low will still provide plenty of rain and elevated convection, it's just most of it won't have lightning due to a lack of instability. In the summer the biggest lightning makers usually dump the heaviest rain because their updrafts are strongest for the longest duration. However, in the summer, it's a completely different mechanism lifting the air. In the summer, the airmass has to be lifted on it's own by the heating of the day and mesoscale boundaries like sea breezes.

Rain from this system is being produced by upper divergent flow from the jet around the base of the short wave, and the surface low force the air to rise on a large scale. In this, way, not much instability is needed.

Now because there will be more instability further offshore where the deeper waters are warmer, thunderstorms are more likely due to higher instability. But the air is being forced to rise rather it be unstable or not, the difference is that greater instability allows for greater updrafts speed and hence more separation of charges, which at least based on current lightning science, is what causes lightning.

It's one of the reasons why lightning is lacking so much in a tropical cyclone despite deep convection. In a tropical system, forced rising also occurs like with a frontal system just different mechanisms, warm air, and deep moisture are forced to lift by the forcing and convergence from the low. Lightning lacks because instability is often very low due to the thick canopy of clouds and persistent rain, draining convective energy needed for lightning. This is way the first outer band of a hurricane or tropical storm can have a lot of lightning like a typical summer thunderstorm in Florida, because it has more instability to feed off of than the other convection in a tropical system.
It was raining light most of the day since early this morning, but the rain has gotten heavier and is more of a moderate and steady soaking rain recently now. No heavy downpours yet though. I'm expecting mostly moderate rain, although it could get a bit heavy at times later tonight. So far 0.31 here.

This being my second winter in Tallahassee, I've noticed a lot of winter rain events here are all day, cold steady rain events like Seattle, compared to winter rains in the Tampa Bay area which usually consists of soupy warm and humid weather followed by a quick burst of heavy downpours from a squall line and then clears out after.

Of course sometimes we can get strong thunderstorms ahead of warm humid airmasses here in the winter, and sometimes the Tampa Bay area can get cold rainy days too in the winter, but I'm just referring to how if often is.
How can I view a long range European model for hurricane seseason?
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A PERIOD OF SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING MAY RESULT IN
SLIPPERY CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW THURSDAY MORNING MAY RESULT IN SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS, WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE.

A STORM SYSTEM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MAY BRING AN
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OR MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA, HOWEVER
THE DETAILS ARE LESS CERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.



The atmospheric river is looking more like a squirt on the vapor loops. There is no GIF available for the wider view, but the vapor is already cut off from near Hawaii. Nothing but intense dry, sinking air in that vicinity. However, I expect there's still a decent amount headed our way, but nothing like a "classic" Pineapple Connection which in decades past would include a preliminary Arctic outbreak reaching the ocean north of Hawaii plus a continuous moisture flow, which in some events reached all the way to the ITCZ and sometimes even across the equator. The good old days.
Has dropped another 3 degrees to 21 in last hr, probably a half inch so far. Winds haven't really picked up, but mainly N now. Pressure continues to creep up and radar shows back end clearing I-72 corridor west of Decatur, so doubt we'll get much above an inch. Out, have to go celebrate grandson's 6th bday!
Yawn, stretch!
Its nearly midnight here and its quite calm and cold at about +1/C.
Needless to say there are "Problemas!" in outer zones of our peninsular.
Well according to the news which I have watched and believed to a large amount, there are thousands of trucks and of course cars, ( they don't matter that much!) trapped in blizzards all over the north of Spain.
In fact in one zone near Barcelona alone there are over 6000 trucks stuck in blizzards on the road to France, with more snow to come as the vicious winter chill digs deep into the loins of Europe! Temps down to -20/C over the next few days!
Here in the soft underbelly of Europe, where we are, its only been about Zero, or 32F and we had a minor amount of blizzarding on our way back from the province of Granada today, where we had been sorting out "simple Spanish paperwork," which has been needing attention for the last ten years. In reality, its like swimming in molasses?

I don't know what the rest of Europe is suffering but its not exactly paradise in the sun here at the moment.

Over to Barbanz for the Europe updates? I'm going to hide under a few duvets with the electric blanket turned on!
More later of course.
Quoting 292. tiggerhurricanes2001:

How can I view a long range European model for hurricane seseason?

You can find forecasts for mean sea level pressure, sea surface temperature, 2m temperature, and rainfall below to give a general idea of how inactive/active the season might be. However, it's not going to show individual tropical cyclones.

Link
Quoting 203. Patrap:

Please, direct yer mood towards the data.

Im preparing for Carnival here, thanx.


baby doll the dolphins hold the title for "highest thinking mammal"

wish i could be there
Quoting 295. BayFog:



The atmospheric river is looking more like a squirt on the vapor loops. There is no GIF available for the wider view, but the vapor is already cut off from near Hawaii. Nothing but intense dry, sinking air in that vicinity. However, I expect there's still a decent amount headed our way, but nothing like a "classic" Pineapple Connection which in decades past would include a preliminary Arctic outbreak reaching the ocean north of Hawaii plus a continuous moisture flow, which in some events reached all the way to the ITCZ and sometimes even across the equator. The good old days.


Keep in mind that the water vapor loop is detecting upper level moisture not low level moisture. Upper level systems show up well defined on the water vapor loop because they left the moisture high into the atmosphere. You can see this what's happening here when you combine it with the PW which is an integrated measure of total atmospheric moisture and it does indeed show a connection all the way back to Hawaii. The difference is that further away the air is mostly low level moist air below dry air aloft, then it gets lifted higher as it gets pulled into the upper system.

You can see how the upper level system headed for the west coast is lifting low level moisture by looking at the southwest tale end where it looks like the moisture is "piling up" or building and spreading out. For these reasons, don't worry. It's coming.
CapitalWeatherGang Lol:
Little known: NOAA has reached an agreement to license the "GFS" moniker to chain comedy theaters throughout the U.S. in the organization's first co-branding effort. I expect spectacular results.



i am happy the both storm will not come together here!!
303. beell
Nuclear Event in Spain on Wednesday, 04 February, 2015 at 04:49 (04:49 AM) UTC.
Description
A Spanish nuclear power plant was shut down following an electricity failure, local media reported late on Tuesday. Strong winds reportedly caused the blackout in the northeast of the country. Operations at the Vandellos II 1,000-megawatt nuclear power station, located in Catalonia, Spain, were brought to a halt on Tuesday afternoon, Europapress.es reported, citing Nuclear Association Asco-Vandellos II and the Nuclear Safety Council (CSN). Strong winds in the area were reportedly behind the electricity shortage. The shutdown was automatic following the power outage. According to the plant: "All the safety systems worked as planned" and the there is currently no danger. The plant has notified the CSN of the incident. The outage did not cause any harm to the environment or the plant's workers, CSN said in a statement. Once the power is restored, the plant will be back online.
Quoting 259. pottery:


Go for it.... a tarantula has 8.

100 feet and you'll be a Millipede.


Isn't that a centipede?
307. flsky
What are the measurements in the scale?

Quoting 294. LargoFl:


Quoting 269. tampabaymatt:



Kind of seems a little contradictory by the NWS to state we will get that much rain but that thunderstorms will remain offshore.

Thunderstorms are not a requirement to reach 1-2" of rainfall.
309. beell
Quoting 307. flsky:

What are the measurements in the scale?




Ask ScottLincoln.
:)
Quoting 307. flsky:

What are the measurements in the scale?


Hi all, I sure hope we get some of that rain down here in South Florida, it's been really dry down here compared to Central and North Florida.
311. vis0
CREDIT:: JMA (Japan) WV of WPac & CPac, NOAA through ERAU for RadSAt presentation/composite.
D&T:: On imagery
Not a complete frame by frame view just showing the South To North plume (happens a few frames before the pause at 5secs., the first 2 frames for those trying to see if for PONLY these ~2 last months iof as i state that as LOWs fronts pass the innermost ml-d in the ml-d being busy influencing the 4 compass points just outside the outer most ml-d AOI flare up with LOW, notice when the ENSO plumes spritzed northward, mark times and see what was happening over the NE. Did anyone see the LOW in the ml-d ATL, yes okay...NO check my #41 comment in my "ml-d reset PAGE" blogbyte.

FROM THE ACTUAL VID DESCRIPTION::
If you notice the many blow ups of the ENSO Niño areas. remember ENSO Niño eastern half is cooling yet its billowing NORTHWARD. the most in over a year (Dec 2014 didn't billow northward this much maybe ,70% of this amount you are viewing). Though even middle 2 to 3 ENSO is billowing too and to me 2 & 3 mainly 3 gave the most moisture to this AtmosRiver. Notice the next big billowing happened ~ 201502011000UTC go see on some archived Sat imagery what was happening from Chicago towards the NE and even in the south that the ml-d had 2 days of a LOW/front pass through its inner most ml-d.

http://youtu.be/1vY5giyzSZU (800x420)

312. beell
Quoting 307. flsky:

What are the measurements in the scale?




In a very general sense, the scale represents the strength of returned energy bouncing off raindrops, hail, snow, ice, bugs, dust, bats, birds, etc to the radar expressed in values of decibels (dBZ).

Emphasis on the word "approximate" in the table below is important for a whole host of reasons

Quoting 285. dabirds:



Just started in S C IL, had shown us in 1-2" range. Has dropped from 32 to to 24 in last 3hrs, single digit lows expected as clears out and high sends Canadian air S. Pressure already on way up, winds from N-NW 8-15 w/ 24 gust (so far). Should be fun commute in metro StL as they're starting too. Only an 1", 1.5", but right at rush. At least they dropped the last of the old chain of rocks canal bridges earlier and have I-270 back open.



Only less than an inch here. Pressure's at 30.02 and rising with the max gust being 11 mph. It started snowing at about 3:30 with a little drizzle half an hour before that. It also got up to 40 this morning before the cold front came through. Thankfully, it'll be in the upper 50s this weekend.
Quoting 300. Jedkins01:



Keep in mind that the water vapor loop is detecting upper level moisture not low level moisture. Upper level systems show up well defined on the water vapor loop because they left the moisture high into the atmosphere. You can see this what's happening here when you combine it with the PW which is an integrated measure of total atmospheric moisture and it does indeed show a connection all the way back to Hawaii. The difference is that further away the air is mostly low level moist air below dry air aloft, then it gets lifted higher as it gets pulled into the upper system.

You can see how the upper level system headed for the west coast is lifting low level moisture by looking at the southwest tale end where it looks like the moisture is "piling up" or building and spreading out. For these reasons, don't worry. It's coming.

I understand that, but an atmospheric river is typically deep layer, and in past events, has not been so hidden from the vapor image in a shallow surface layer. That is more usually what you see in a more purely dynamic system, not a plume. But we shall see.
Quoting nonblanche:
Hey, everyone.

Today is storm prep day. I'm actually typing from up on the roof, doing shingle repair and screwing down batten boards - lamer previous owner roofing job used 1" shingle nails. Dorks.

Anyway, the roof corners (just the shingles; the roof itself is solid) most damaged are the prevailing storms from our two varieties. I'm concentrating on the south edge and southwest corners. The other kind of storm hits thethe north edge and northwest corner.

My question - being I'm Churchill county, NV - are the strongest winds likely to loop around during the last half of the storm? I'd rather save that repair for another day, not sure I'll have time tomorrow. Any suggestions would be appreciated.
Hi Blanche. This looks like a classic Sierra downslope winter wind event. The strongest winds will be from the south and southwest with the highest winds not getting that far out on Highway 50 until late tomorrow. By the time the front passes through and the winds shift wind speeds should be down to 25 mph or less. This is also the kind of wind that raises big clouds of dust out your way so be careful if you have to get out on the highway. At least this is going to be a warm storm there with temperatures probably getting into the low 70's tomorrow. Good luck with the wind.
Quoting 236. whitewabit:

Snowing at a rate of just over 1 inch an hour here in Central Illinois this morning .. 3 inches of new snow on the ground .. on top of the 10-12 from the storm last week ..


A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 5 PM CST this afternoon.

* Timing...snow will develop during mid morning over the Illinois River valley and southeast toward I-72 by midday. Expect periods of moderate snow at times from late morning into the afternoon before ending by sunset.

* Accumulations...2 to 4 inches of snow mainly from I-55 northwest.

* Impacts...untreated roads will become snow covered and visibilities will be down to a half mile or less in periods of heavier snow. Gusty north to northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph will produce some blowing and drifting of snow.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means that periods of snow will cause primarily travel difficulties. Be prepared for snow covered roads and limited visibilities...and use caution while driving.

Read more at http://www.wunderground.com/US/IL/029.html#A5M2ZGE B9vl9vZlC.99


All i got was an SWS with less than an inch of snow but it's still not done yet.
317. beell

02/04 18Z GFS Precip Accumulation through 150 hrs (Wed, 02/11).
Quoting 286. washingtonian115:

Will be going on our Ski trip 2/13-2/16.We will finally be seeing real snow all while doing some great family activities like snow tubing.Snow on a mountain is much more beautiful than in the city.


Where to?
Quoting opal92nwf:
Wow
As you probably already know, that was just an area of light to moderate rain. Ever since WU "improved" the radar display it shows all these areas of 35 dbZ returns when the amount of rain doesn't seem to justify it. It also shows these expansive areas of green where nothing is happening. It finally started drizzling here about three hours ago ago after being covered in green all day. It's 44 degrees with just enough wind and rain to make it a really nasty day but not enough rain to help much with the deficit,
Quoting 245. BayFog:


Oddly, most locales around the Bay Area are still above normal for ppt thanks to the December event. This one will put us well above normal.


Interestingly enough, it was pretty dry in the Bay Area last month.

Santa Rosa airport got .12 inches
Napa airport got a trace
Downtown San Fransisco got no rain
Oakland airport got a trace

Just to name a few.
Quoting vis0:
CREDIT:: JMA (Japan) WV of WPac & CPac, NOAA through ERAU for RadSAt presentation/composite.
D&T:: On imagery
Not a complete frame by frame view just showing the South To North plume (happens a few frames before the pause at 5secs., the first 2 frames for those trying to see if for PONLY these ~2 last months iof as i state that as LOWs fronts pass the innermost ml-d in the ml-d being busy influencing the 4 compass points just outside the outer most ml-d AOI flare up with LOW, notice when the ENSO plumes spritzed northward, mark times and see what was happening over the NE. Did anyone see the LOW in the ml-d ATL, yes okay...NO check my #41 comment in my "ml-d reset PAGE" blogbyte.

FROM THE ACTUAL VID DESCRIPTION::
If you notice the many blow ups of the ENSO Niño areas. remember ENSO Niño eastern half is cooling yet its billowing NORTHWARD. the most in over a year (Dec 2014 didn't billow northward this much maybe ,70% of this amount you are viewing). Though even middle 2 to 3 ENSO is billowing too and to me 2 & 3 mainly 3 gave the most moisture to this AtmosRiver. Notice the next big billowing happened ~ 201502011000UTC go see on some archived Sat imagery what was happening from Chicago towards the NE and even in the south that the ml-d had 2 days of a LOW/front pass through its inner most ml-d.

http://youtu.be/1vY5giyzSZU (800x420)

Sorry, Vis, but jumping cursor arrows and supersonic satellite views make me dizzy. :-) Can you try slowing that whole thing down a bit and then explain what I'm supposed to be looking at?
Quoting 307. flsky:

What are the measurements in the scale?


if im right its a wind scale...mph im assuming...they did mention in the nws briefing som storms could produce 50 mph gusts.
NWS Melbourne........
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A PERIOD OF STEADY MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. MOST
STEADY RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO IMPACT EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AT THE EARLIEST...WHICH COVERAGE INCREASING
RAPIDLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD LIGHTNING STORMS OR
SEVERE WEATHER...BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME GUSTY
WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT...AFFECTING THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE
ACROSS THE REGION.
Excerpt from the Bangor daily news showing just how unusual the last ten days have been for the Northeast United States:

"EASTPORT, Maine — Seventy-six inches and counting.

That’s how much snow has fallen in Eastport since Jan. 25, which is a new 10-day record for documented snowfall anywhere in Maine. The previous record of 71 inches was set more than 50 years ago at Ripogenus Dam, just west of Baxter State Park in Piscataquis County, over a 10-day period, from late December 1962 to early January 1963, according to the National Weather Service.

Victor Nouhan, a forecaster with the National Weather Service in Caribou, emphasized Wednesday the amount of data and information available to the federal agency is limited, so he cannot say whether Eastport’s 76 inches is the most snowfall ever in Maine in a week and a half. He said the Fryeburg area got an exceptionally heavy dumping of snow in February 1969, which may rival the amount that officially has been measured in Eastport."
Quoting 319. sar2401:

As you probably already know, that was just an area of light to moderate rain. Ever since WU "improved" the radar display it shows all these areas of 35 dbZ returns when the amount of rain doesn't seem to justify it. It also shows these expansive areas of green where nothing is happening. It finally started drizzling here about three hours ago ago after being covered in green all day. It's 44 degrees with just enough wind and rain to make it a really nasty day but not enough rain to help much with the deficit,


The WU update is fine, that's just because you've been in an air mass that started much drier through the column so a lot of precip is evaporating, also if the rain drops are bigger, the reflectivity will be brighter.

Here in Tallahassee we've been in the same reflectivity zone and rain is falling at steady rate, so far we've had 0.81, there's nothing wrong with the radar. As I've always said, not all DBZ is created equal, lol.
We are now being advised due to possible formation of a subtropical or tropical storm this weekend here in southern and southeastern Brazil. Newscasts continue just talking about low pressure and on the internet talk about wind, heavy rain and possible downpours off the coast. In the synoptic chart is already possible to observe the low pressure formation:




(B is Low Pressure and A is High Pressure)

Quoting 308. ScottLincoln:


Thunderstorms are not a requirement to reach 1-2" of rainfall.


When a decaying front is the driver of the rainfall, usually it is. But, Jedkins provided a great response which I always appreciate.
Quoting 326. Jedkins01:



The WU update is fine, that's just because you've been in an air mass that started much drier through the column so a lot of precip is evaporating, also if the rain drops are bigger, the reflectivity will be brighter.

Here in Tallahassee we've been in the same reflectivity zone and rain is falling at steady rate, so far we've had 0.81, there's nothing wrong with the radar. As I've always said, not all DBZ is created equal, lol.


I have noticed this also. Sometimes the WU radar shows tons of green all over my area when there is no rain falling. Maybe I'm not reading it correctly, but it definitely seems like something is wrong with it at times.


You can clearly see the well defined divergent flow in the jet axis to the southeast of the shortwave. In response this will induce increasing large scale lift in the east gulf and over the peninsula overnight. This will allow a widespread and beneficial rain to soak many areas. Nothing ridiculous, just good soaking rains.

The passing surface low will bring with it a decent low level jet and increasing helicity and bulk shear. However, due to weak instability, most convection will remain elevated and thus most activity won't be able to "tap" into the available shear that otherwise might be a notable tornado threat if instability was higher, but since it's not, I wouldn't worry about anything.

Just plenty of rain, and maybe a few embedded thunderstorms.
Quoting 317. beell:


02/04 18Z GFS Precip Accumulation through 150 hrs (Wed, 02/11).

So Screwed again....
Quoting 305. Grothar:



Isn't that a centipede?

I stand corrected ! :):))
Quoting 312. beell:



In a very general sense, the scale represents the strength of returned energy bouncing off raindrops, hail, snow, ice, bugs, dust, bats, birds, etc to the radar expressed in values of decibels (dBZ).

Emphasis on the word "approximate" in the table below is important for a whole host of reasons



Interesting that the rain rate increases exponentially as the dBZ increases. I didn't think the rain rate would be so high for 65 dBZ. Would hate to be under anything higher for a prolonged period of time (nasty flooding and probably some not-so-small hail).
Heavy Rain Fog/Mist

51F

11C

Humidity92%
Wind SpeedE 7 mph
Barometer30.06 in (1017.8 mb)
Dewpoint49F (9C)
Visibility2.50 mi
Wind Chill48F (9C)

Last Update on 4 Feb 7:53 pm EST

Current conditions at

Tallahassee, Tallahassee Regional Airport (KTLH)

Lat: 30.39N Lon: 84.35W Elev: 79ft.

More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather


Rain is coming down pretty strong now and it's raw and quite cool, winter in Tallahassee is not much different than Seattle :)
Quoting 333. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Interesting that the rain rate increases exponentially as the dBZ increases. I didn't think the rain rate would be so high for 65 dBZ. Would hate to be under anything higher for a prolonged period of time (nasty flooding and probably some not-so-small hail).


The problem with this estimation is that it assumes a certain set of conditions. I was in a hail storm once in Texas where the DBZ was 65 in early spring when the air mass was fairly dry but quite unstable, we had plenty of large hail but the rainfall rate wasn't probably more than an inch per hour at most by my estimation, maybe less.


At the NWS office I volunteered at in Ruskin, instead of of a single estimation, they have a whole chart for estimating based on drop size, water content in the atmosphere, whether the reflectivity is mostly hail, if there is a dry layer that might evaporate rain, etc. It might sound complicated, but it's sorted into a chart that's easy to refer to, and it's basically an outline of how the more accurate dual pol estimates are concluded, that along with some calculation, of course.

It's especially valuable when dealing with tropical cyclone rain bands compared to spring thunderstorms.

Quoting 241. Sfloridacat5:



Unfortunately California will have to take what they get even though this heavy rainfall event will not be as helpful due to it all coming at once. In addition the most exceptional regions of drought aren't going to receive barely any rainfall. They need more consistent, prolonged events if they want any way of getting some relief from the historic that has plagued them for about a year now.
Earth: A New Wild by PBS is a 5 part series with its first episode tonight at 9 pm. Two hours.
Quoting 329. tampabaymatt:



I have noticed this also. Sometimes the WU radar shows tons of green all over my area when there is no rain falling. Maybe I'm not reading it correctly, but it definitely seems like something is wrong with it at times.


Well, I can only speculate in regards to events you're referring to, but some possible explanations would be that sometimes the NWS runs the radar in clear air mode when high level clouds are producing obvious virga such that they don't see a reason to switch back to regular mode, and that will show up as green, since clear air mode is more sensitive.

Also, it could be a composite radar product, which is looking at a composite of scanning different levels. If rainfall is tilted with height and flow is also blowing away from you, you could appear to have rain from an upper level scan, but in reality its missing. Composite reflectivity is sometimes valuable, but can be deceiving as well depending on the situation.

And then it could be what happened with Sar earlier, a dry layer at some layer of the atmosphere that causes precip to evaporate on it's way down, which if it's light, can effectively evaporate all precip if RH is low enough.

That happened with us too earlier today, the atmosphere started with a substantial dry layer below the overruning moisture above the warm front. We had a large blotch of light rain over us earlier today that took a few hours to actually start reaching the ground. Now that it's saturated, values that show even lighter easily reach the ground.

I can't say for sure all of my explanations account for what you've experienced, but some of them might have.

Also, public access radar software while often good, isn't the best available. What the NWS has access to with awips is addictingly better than what we get to use.

The closest public equivalent to what the NWS has is GR2analyist, but it requires paid access, which even I won't commit to, at least not while still a college student lol.


this wont happen, but look at that storm off of the West Coast
Quoting 339. nwobilderburg:


this wont happen, but look at that storm off of the West Coast


Looks like rain for SoCal to me. Which means it definitely won't happen.



/starts rain dance anyway
Eastport Maine has had 76 INCHES of snow over the past 10 days...A new record.

Quoting 340. TimSoCal:



Looks like rain for SoCal to me. Which means it definitely won't happen.



/starts rain dance anyway


it would also cause serious wind damage to most of northern California, so It wouldnt be that great for the state
Tampa Bay Soundings per SPC. I tried to animate the 12z Rapid Refresh sounding, but the .gif creator failed. Also, tampabaymatt the tons of green that you'll see from the radar could be a combination of things not related to precipitation, it could be false echo return, ground clutter, an infestation of insects or flock of birds, or it could be receiving signal from another radar causing interference. Oftentimes, I notice with the Jacksonville NWS radar on a clear, sunny day that it will run hot.



Although, we have a veering wind profile, shear, and a saturated column all the way up to the Tropopause, there is not much instability due to the cloud cover earlier which reduced the surface heating. Also, not much of a CAPE and Lifted Index is 2 and K-Index is 16.
Quoting 314. BayFog:


I understand that, but an atmospheric river is typically deep layer, and in past events, has not been so hidden from the vapor image in a shallow surface layer. That is more usually what you see in a more purely dynamic system, not a plume. But we shall see.


You're right, but at some point the reaches of the upper system has to end, in this case the upper trough doesn't extend as far bad as some traditionally do, but the high PW plume does. It may be because usually the jet stream is well defined and continued for quite a distance, but not as much here.

In the end all that matters is that the available moisture and dynamic support is there for the event. Weather sometimes can look non-traditional and follow the same "rules", it's part of the randomness of weather.
Quoting 342. nwobilderburg:


it would also cause serious wind damage to most of northern California, so It wouldnt be that great for the state


They'll just have to take one for the team lol.

All kidding aside, that looks like a classic West Coast Windstorm, the likes of which we haven't seen in a long time.
Great night out with temperatures in the upper 40s. Not looking forward to the transient cool down, but another warm up looks on tap for us over the weekend.
east haven light snow on saturday snow on sunday snow on monday snow on tuesday!! crazy weather!
348. beell
Quoting 331. PedleyCA:


So Screwed again....


You're livin' in the wrong half of the county, Ped. My sincerest regrets!
Quoting 328. tampabaymatt:



When a decaying front is the driver of the rainfall, usually it is. But, Jedkins provided a great response which I always appreciate.




Your rain gauge and lawn looks like they will be partying tonight.



more snow for boston over 12 inches!!

Nice Winter.....
353. beell
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
448 PM EST WED FEB 04 2015

DAYS 2/3...

WEST COAST/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/N. ROCKIES...

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVY TO POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED BY NEARLY ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...ALBEIT WITH SUFFICIENT TIMING AND SPATIAL DIFFERENCES FROM RECENT CYCLES TO SUGGEST A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE ACTUAL QPF TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY...WITH AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DECREASED BY 15 TO 20 PERCENT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHER THAN ACCOUNTING FOR THE UNCERTAINTY...THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR...WITH INTENSE DEEP ONSHORE FLOW AND OROGRAPHIC ASCENT COMBINING WITH PW VALUES OF 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES...INTERACTING TO FAVOR SOME HEAVY TOTALS...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS NUMBERS. THE LIKELIHOOD OF 2 DAYS TOTALS EXCEEDING 2.5 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS HIGHER THAN 50 PERCENT...WITH SOME PARTS OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...PARTICULARLY THE SHASTAS AND SISKIYOUS...POSSIBLY RECEIVING AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT...ALTHOUGH THE CONFIDENCE FOR THESE HIGHER TOTALS IS LOWER. GENERALLY USED A MODEL CONSENSUS TO DERIVE THE FINAL TOTALS...ALTHOUGH WITH SLIGHTLY LESS RELIANCE UPON THE NAM BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY DUE TO ITS GREATER DIFFERENCES FROM THE OTHER SOLUTIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. OTHERWISE...THE GFS AND ECWMF SOLUTIONS APPEAR EQUALLY PLAUSIBLE...WITH THE PREFERRED SOLUTION ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THEM. REFER TO THE QPFHSD FOR MORE INFORMATION ON WINTER WEATHER.

BURKE/SULLIVAN/JAMES
Quoting 354. BaltimoreBrian:

Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.

Thanks as always, BB, for the great links. That one about the sea slug incorporating genes from the algae it eats is pretty amazing.
Blog of moisture moving onshore into Central Florida.

Quoting 305. Grothar:

Isn't that a centipede?

Der kleine Tausendfussler

Der kleine Tausendfussler nach Hause kam zu seiner Mutter laufen "Mommy Ich verletzte meinen Fuss!"
"Welche hast du meine Liebe weh?"
"Weiss ich noch nicht. Ich kann nur bis 10 zahlen ..."
Quoting 357. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Blog of moisture moving onshore into Central Florida.




I always knew your comments were all wet, Caleb ;)
oldnewmex, you're welcome! Appreciation makes it all worthwhile :)
Quoting 354. BaltimoreBrian:

Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.
*** Iceland's volcanic eruption stokes toxic gas fears

I was on the Big Island of Hawaii about 15 years ago, and lava from the pu'u o'o flow was dumping into the ocean, creating a huge steam plume over the southern end of the island. As I hiked toward the flow one afternoon, a drizzle rained down on me, and at first, I didn't give it much thought. At some point, I licked the rain on my forearm, and it tasted like battery acid. Any metal item exposed to the sulfuric acid rain was corroded after the trip, like the eyelets of my hiking boots. Volcanos are a tough environment.
Hawaii is even better, just too close to Fukashima...

Quoting 352. PedleyCA:


Nice Winter.....
NorCal is about to get hosed. Follow it here:
Link
How much snow on Sierra Nevada and Colorado River Basin would be the key...
Quoting 366. FormosanBlackBear:

How much snow on Sierra Nevada and Colorado River Basin would be the key...

Reservoirs are set to receive a significant boost, but the prognosis for snow is not so good. It's all dependent on the temperature of the stuff blowing in. I have read predictions for snow levels varying from 5500' to 8000', and it will likely fluctuate between these. I think some of the existing snow will get rained off, but the cake may get some frosting Monday morning.

This is also predicted to affect northern CA almost exclusively - not much for the central and southern Sierra. Not sure about Colo. River basin.
Study historical Ice Ages and you will always see a trend of the Earth slowly warming up before the global temperatures suddenly plummet into an Ice Age. But don't worry, with our current age of technology and understanding of the weather, we won't die off. It's all those homeless people that I worry about. Plus if you respond to my comment with strong emotional skepticism combined with some CO2 chart, remember this, arguing, insults, and character assassination won't stop the snow, ice, and freezing winds that will become more intense every year. And also remember those global temperature anomaly maps never show the poles...
Quoting 368. JayShoes:

Study historical Ice Ages and you will always see a trend of the Earth slowly warming up before it rather suddenly starts. But don't worry, with our current age of technology and understanding of the weather, we won't die off. It's all those homeless people that I worry about. Plus if you respond to my comment with strong emotional skepticism combined with some CO2 chart, remember this, arguing, insults, and character assassination won't stop the snow, ice, and freezing winds that will become more intense every year. And also remember those global temperature anomaly maps never show the poles...


The forcings behind ice ages are well know. It is called the Milankovich cycle which is comprised of three different cycles ("wobbling" of earth, procession of the equinoxes, etc...). I am just going by memory from this at a late hour so I am sure others could provide more accurate descriptions with links and such. The idea of some mystery cycle that no one can identify or measure coincidentally is a common thing with climate change deniers posting stuff they read on conspiracy blogs. The arctic is warming faster by a factor of 3 or so than the rest of the globe and I wouldn't worry about a laurentide ice sheet reforming anytime soon. All of the snow here in the northeast will melt this year. I am sure about that.
Quoting 369. wartsttocs:



The forcings behind ice ages are well know. It is called the Milankovich cycle which is comprised of three different cycles ("wobbling" of earth, procession of the equinoxes, etc...). I am just going by memory from this at a late hour so I am sure others could provide more accurate descriptions with links and such. The idea of some mystery cycle that no one can identify or measure coincidentally is a common thing with climate change deniers posting stuff they read on conspiracy blogs. The arctic is warming faster by a factor of 3 or so than the rest of the globe and I wouldn't worry about a laurentide ice sheet reforming anytime soon. All of the snow here in the northeast will melt this year. I am sure about that.
I am referring to the Iris Hypothesis. A 2007 satellite survey confirmed this to be correct to a large degree. Plus I am referring to the shutdown of the Thermohaline Circulation as a result of the melting Arctic Shelf. I am not a climate change denier. The Earth is warming up. But that is what triggers the aforementioned proposals. The Milankovich cycle is only one of many possible explanations of the causes of Ice Ages. 


As you can see when the Earth's temperatures increases to a point it then begins to fall into a fluctuated state before plunging into an Ice Age. Note how at about 130,000 years ago it did just that. The Iris Hypothesis and the collapse of the Thermohaline Cyle would explain this fluctuation period leading to the sudden drop in temperature. As you can see, we are in that fluctuating period now, and coming to the eventual plunge in temperature.
A pity. Every inch of rain in Cali adds a year of climate revisionism.
Quoting 372. cRRKampen:

A pity. Every inch of rain in Cali adds a year of climate revisionism.
Why is that a pity? More rain for California's drought and a further understanding of how the world works are progress. I bet Galileo would have been called a revisionist if the church used modern language.
Rain rolling off the roof here at my place in S. Fort Myers.
.37" at the house
.51" in the city
2.22" to the north in Punta Gorda.
But it's still raining so we should pick up a little more.

more storms for calif? why not. its the time of yr as well as the pacific water temp just offshore is well above normal
376. MahFL
Quoting 326. Jedkins01:



The WU update is fine, that's just because you've been in an air mass that started much drier through the column so a lot of precip is evaporating, also if the rain drops are bigger, the reflectivity will be brighter.

Here in Tallahassee we've been in the same reflectivity zone and rain is falling at steady rate, so far we've had 0.81, there's nothing wrong with the radar. As I've always said, not all DBZ is created equal, lol.


Yes you have to wait for the air column to become saturated before the rain hits the ground. I found the new Wundergound colours are pretty good actually.
Southern New Haven Severe Watches & Warnings NOAA Weather Radio
Special Statement
Statement as of 6:46 AM EST on February 05, 2015
An area of snow over northern NJ...the lower Hudson Valley...and southeastern CT will impact the tri-state area through the morning commute. Visibilities will be reduced to 1 mile...and down to 1/2 a mile in the heaviest bands. Motorists are urged to use caution.

Additionally...as temperatures continue to drop this morning...any standing water that resulted from snow melt yesterday and overnight will refreeze creating black ice.
Morning, all.



We [NW Bahamas} look set to get a least some of the action FL is currently seeing, around dusk, I'd presume.

Hopefully it won't be too nasty before I get home tonight ....

Have a good one.
Very brief hello with a saved loop of beautiful cut-off low "Norbert" in the Mediterranean:



Meteorological details at:
Estofex.org

Pics of heavy snow in Spain, flooding the Balkans and more at:
Severe Weather Europe
Quoting 373. JayShoes:

Why is that a pity? More rain for California's drought and a further understanding of how the world works are progress. I bet Galileo would have been called a revisionist if the church used modern language.

Thugs is what climate revisionists are. Playing the Galileo Gambit is confession of said thuggery. Be more subtle mate.
381. MahFL
Quoting 353. beell:

...WITH AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA DECREASED BY 15 TO 20 PERCENT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.


Seems CA can't get a 100 % break, maybe a 80 % break......
Quoting 368. JayShoes:

Study historical Ice Ages and you will always see a trend of the Earth slowly warming up before the global temperatures suddenly plummet into an Ice Age. But don't worry, with our current age of technology and understanding of the weather, we won't die off. It's all those homeless people that I worry about. Plus if you respond to my comment with strong emotional skepticism combined with some CO2 chart, remember this, arguing, insults, and character assassination won't stop the snow, ice, and freezing winds that will become more intense every year. And also remember those global temperature anomaly maps never show the poles...


What causes this warming? It certainly isn't magic. The climate responds to forcings, the currently low solar forcing is more than offset by the increases in CO2. There is no evidence to suggest the planet is in any danger of an imminent ice age due to AMOC collapse:

"In recent years there has been a huge debate on how global warming may impact the Gulf Stream and the AMOC. A major consideration is the potential for a slowdown or stop of the AMOC in response to freshwater from the melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which lowers the density of the surface waters and puts the brakes on the thermohaline component of the AMOC. The AMOC has a considerable influence over European climate from the northward heat transport by the Gulf Stream and a slowdown or halt of the AMOC could have a large impact on climate and even induce abrupt climate changes (Alley et al, 2002; Alley, 2007). The IPCC Assessment Report 4 considered various models, estimating up to a 50% slowdown in the AMOC by 2100, though none predicted a complete halt. More recent studies support the view that it is very unlikely that the AMOC will undergo any abrupt transition this century (Allison et al., 2009). Though, between 1957 and 2004 there are indications of a 30% slowdown in the AMOC at 25oN (Bryden et al., 2005). Keenlyside et al. (2008) forecasts that the AMOC will weaken over the next decade, but they argue that large uncertainties exist in previous measurements of AMOC variability due to poor observation and modelling analyses. Recently, Willis (2010) used satellite observations of sea surface height and sensor buoy observations of velocity, salinity and temperature of the Atlantic Ocean at 41oN and found no significant change in the AMOC strength between 2002 and 2009. Despite interannual fluctuations, observations show that it's unlikely there has been any significant slowing of the AMOC during the past 20 years."

, nor have you provided any except through often repeated Ice Age Cometh memes in fact, current research has proposed the next ice age may be delayed by the increases in CO2 forcing.

No insults, graphs, or characters assassinations here, just science. Thanks for playing.
Quoting 374. Sfloridacat5:

Rain rolling off the roof here at my place in S. Fort Myers.
.37" at the house
.51" in the city
2.22" to the north in Punta Gorda.
But it's still raining so we should pick up a little more.


I didn't get any rain until after midnight. I slept terribly as heavy rain was occurring off an on practically all night. My rain gauge was at 1.46" when I left for work this morning. But, with some additional storms rolling in off the Gulf, my guess is I got at least another 0.25" this morning. I'm glad to see south FL is finally getting some rain from a front.
Rain storm totals.

I'm happy with my .40" here at my location (.63" in the city), but I still can't figure out why my location just south of Fort Myers always sees less rain.
Looks like the big winner is in the Punta Gorda area with over 2".

Quoting JayShoes:
I am referring to the Iris Hypothesis. A 2007 satellite survey confirmed this to be correct to a large degree. Plus I am referring to the shutdown of the Thermohaline Circulation as a result of the melting Arctic Shelf. I am not a climate change denier. The Earth is warming up. But that is what triggers the aforementioned proposals. The Milankovich cycle is only one of many possible explanations of the causes of Ice Ages.%uFFFD
Ah, the Iris Hypothesis, brainchild of Richard Lindzen. Unfortunately for Lindzen and his devotees, that hypothesis simply has not withstood the test of time, and by this point it can be safely rejected: warming-induced clouds aren't going to save us from our stupidity by bringing forth an ice age. (For more see here. And here. And here. And here.)

As Naga5000 so succinctly put it, the current rapid warming is being driven primarily by our unimpeded dumping of CO2 into the atmosphere--around four million metric tons of it every hour around the clock. And until and unless we stop that, the planet will continue to warm.

(See? No insults, graphs, or characters assassination here, either; just simple physics.)


The convection you see moving through Tampa proper soaked me as I was bringing my daughter to day care. Yuck.


Rain should be over in about an hour or so in the Tampa area.
Naples, Florida's rain gauge must not be working. They've had a decent band over the city, but no rain accumulations.


My guess is these totals will increase as we get closer to Monday's front.
1.31" here in Longwood last night, 1.50" at Orlando International, 1.29" at Orlando Executive, .80" at Sanford. Very solid totals all across C & S FL. I am seeing totals over 2" this morning all over Fort Myers.
Quoting Jedkins01:


The WU update is fine, that's just because you've been in an air mass that started much drier through the column so a lot of precip is evaporating, also if the rain drops are bigger, the reflectivity will be brighter.

Here in Tallahassee we've been in the same reflectivity zone and rain is falling at steady rate, so far we've had 0.81, there's nothing wrong with the radar. As I've always said, not all DBZ is created equal, lol.
I don't know if was just me but I couldn't get on WU from about 11:00 to midnight last night, after which I went to bed.

At any rate, I can only go by what I see. I had patches of yellow over my house with a rain rate of 0.02" per hour. It was almost all yellow when I went to bed with a rain rate of 0.11" per hour. My total rainfall, unlike yours, was 0.30". When they did the update, they inserted some kind of algorithm to smooth out the intersections of different returns. The NWS radar, which, I assume, uses the same dbZ scale, was not showing the same thing when I was getting nothing but very light rain. Unfortunately, I had to let my GR2 subscription lapse to pay for things like property tax but there was a disconnect there also. After looking at WU's version of radar now for over 10 years, I can tell for sure it's not as accurate...but it's prettier. :-)
Quoting 368. JayShoes:
It's all those homeless people that I worry about.

Galileo gambit: check; concern trolling: check.
Climate revisionists should be banned.


wow!!
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
1.31" here in Longwood last night, 1.50" at Orlando International, 1.29" at Orlando Executive, .80" at Sanford. Very solid totals all across C & S FL. I am seeing totals over 2" this morning all over Fort Myers.


2" rain totals are well north of the Fort Myers area up in Punta Gorda.
Also a heavier band well south of the area across southern Collier County.

Our official reporting station - Page Field has .68" now.
Southwest Regional Airport - .42"
I've got .40" at the house, which is pretty close to RSW Airport.
Quoting 389. tampabaymatt:



My guess is these totals will increase as we get closer to Monday's front.


Monday's total's aren't looking as impressive as they did 24hrs ago as the models dig this next short wave more toward Georgia as opposed to FL.. However to get 1" to 1.5" areawide from one event in February is impressive as we still have the whole month of February left.


Good morning all! So far this year most the squall lines with these fronts have dissipated just as the get to the Keys... Looks like this one may make it here intact.
Quoting 394. Sfloridacat5:



2" rain totals are well north of the Fort Myers area up in Punta Gorda.
Also a heavier band well south of the area across southern Collier County.

Our official reporting station - Page Field has .68" now.
Southwest Regional Airport - .42"
I've got .40" at the house, which is pretty close to RSW Airport.


Your right I see that. I guess I need more coffee. I'm just glad the more areas other than C FL are getting beneficial rains. If you remember I said that come February especially into March that S FL will join in on the action as well. I have this in my blog.
Quoting tampabaymatt:


Rain should be over in about an hour or so in the Tampa area.
If you haven't seen this real-time lightning detector site, it's pretty cool. I was going to post this last night when I couldn't log on, but those thunderstorms over the Gulf were pretty intense when they were over open water in the vicinity of the loop current. There were times when the storms had over 100 strokes per minute, which is a lot. I could tell by the distribution of the lightning that the incoming blob was going to give general rains from Tampa down to Ft. Meyers. What was really interesting was watching the storms go from the open water to the continental shelf. The shallower water couldn't support the big storms and the stroke count dropped to about 10 a minute. There's a few storms still off the west coast but nothing like last night. As the storms move off Florida and north of Grand Bahama, into the Gulf Stream, the lightning is developing again. For me, at least, watching the amount and distribution of lightning has given me a better idea of what we're in for when we have convection.
Quoting 395. StormTrackerScott:



Monday's total's aren't looking as impressive as they did 24hrs ago as the models dig this next short wave more toward Georgia as opposed to FL.. However to get 1" to 1.5" areawide from one event in February is impressive as we still have the whole month of February left.


I had 1.46" when I left for work this morning. However, another burst of convection rolled through from about 7:00 to 7:45, which I would estimate dumped another quarter inch. Quite impressive for February indeed.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


2" rain totals are well north of the Fort Myers area up in Punta Gorda.
Also a heavier band well south of the area across southern Collier County.

Our official reporting station - Page Field has .68" now.
Southwest Regional Airport - .42"
I've got .40" at the house, which is pretty close to RSW Airport.
He meant two inch totals everywhere but those official stations and your house. :-)
Quoting 390. StormTrackerScott:

1.31" here in Longwood last night, 1.50" at Orlando International, 1.29" at Orlando Executive, .80" at Sanford. Very solid totals all across C & S FL. I am seeing totals over 2" this morning all over Fort Myers.


1.55 at my place last night.
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:


Good morning all! So far this year most the squall lines with these fronts have dissipated just as the get to the Keys... Looks like this one may make it here intact.
Should be some decent rain but, according to the lightning detector I just posted, very few strokes are showing up off Key West, so it won't be too exciting in term of lightning.
Also it's smoky this morning from the cane fields burning in Cuba.
Quoting Naga5000:


1.55 at my place last night.
OMG! You have the highest total so far. Any signs of boats floating past or does it look like the car will make it through?
Quoting 393. hurricanes2018:



wow!!
More useless cold.Yesterday was beautiful.I wonder when days like that are going to come back more often.
Quoting 402. sar2401:

Should be some decent rain but, according to the lightning detector I just posted, very few strokes are showing up off Key West, so it won't be too exciting in term of lightning.


Yeah, for all that yellow and red, haven't heard any boomin' yet.
Quoting 404. sar2401:

OMG! You have the highest total so far. Any signs of boats floating past or does it look like the car will make it through?


The trusty old weather station said 1.55 and it seems like it's pretty good. I'm down the street from the executive airport which scored a 1.29, so an extra quarter of an inch seems plausible. The pool is very full now, however no boats to be seen. Although I think I saw as squirrel building an ark, but it's still in dry dock.
My house is in the middle of the blue circle in South Fort Myers.lol

Big surprise is the heavy rain down in Collier county.
Also over 2" in the Punta Gorda area.

Quoting Naga5000:


The trusty old weather station said 1.55 and it seems like it's pretty good. I'm down the street from the executive airport which scored a 1.29, so an extra quarter of an inch seems plausible. The pool is very full now, however no boats to be seen. Although I think I saw as squirrel building an ark, but it's still in dry dock.
I don't want to say it's dry here but my squirrels spend most of their time climbing up into the bird feeder for a drink. I couldn't figure out why I was having to fill it up every couple of days until I got up early one day and found about six squirrels happily slurping it up. They are apparently the only creature that can drink water faster than Radar Dog. I'm so sick of this psychotic weather. I get a lousy 0.30" while you guys get all the rain, it's going down to 24 tonight, and then it goes up into the 70's Saturday and Sunday, after which we get another weak front on Monday and yet another blast of cold air that still doesn't give us any snow. At this point, I don't care if it's global warming or global cooling as long as it lasts for more than three days.
:-)
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:


Yeah, for all that yellow and red, haven't heard any boomin' yet.
I assume that the higher returns must be from the heavier rain embedded in the blob but there's literally no convection in the Keys now. There's more lightning starting to show up as we get some daytime heating but it's over 200 miles west of you and closer to Naples then the Keys.
Just about to move into Miami.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Some lightning starting showing up with those cells off Ft. Lauderdale about a half hour ago but it's pretty much stopped now, so imagine those storms are losing their severe characteristics. All the active lightning now is still north of Grand Bahamas. Man, I sure wish I would have had access to this kind of technology when I still sailing.
Quoting 410. sar2401:

I don't want to say it's dry here but my squirrels spend most of their time climbing up into the bird feeder for a drink. I couldn't figure out why I was having to fill it up every couple of days until I got up early one day and found about six squirrels happily slurping it up. They are apparently the only creature that can drink water faster than Radar Dog. I'm so sick of this psychotic weather. I get a lousy 0.30" while you guys get all the rain, it's going down to 24 tonight, and then it goes up into the 70's Saturday and Sunday, after which we get another weak front on Monday and yet another blast of cold air that still doesn't give us any snow. At this point, I don't care if it's global warming or global cooling as long as it lasts for more than three days.
:-)


Snow...you can't complain about us getting all the rain when you bring up snow. :)
Quoting sar2401:
Some lightning starting showing up with those cells off Ft. Lauderdale about a half hour ago but it's pretty much stopped now, so imagine those storms are losing their severe characteristics. All the active lightning now is still north of Grand Bahamas. Man, I sure wish I would have had access to this kind of technology when I still sailing.


We had a couple rumbles of thunder during the early morning hours, but that's about it. Really just your average rain showers.
On a summer time thunderstorm scale (0-10), they were probably a 2.
417. vis0

BUNCHING my posts into 1 as wxu was down (for me) so i took a
needed nap and here is most of what i wanted to post this morning. The
"[]_____________[] " represent what should have been each seperate comment
posted. i might have forgotten a few things que sera seras.

Was
to post a 33MB VID using this SAT imagery (http://s20.postimg.org/pbjh613vh/wx201502_050_130 _UTC_e_PAC_N.jpg)
ePAC selection showing the "AtmosRiver" & LOW, As i began to edit it last
night i noticed Wxu was down, wait a few hrs no luck.  i can't use up 3+ hrs
(@49-56k) uploading anything after 7am, busy taking care of doctors appintments
all day for parents.
[]______________________________[]
Here the pinging
showing a down WxU.
Recently when a storm is developing in the SE i see more non responding pings. i use 188 as my measuring
time to see changes that affect more visitors. Usually every 4th or 5th in-error  (4 responds to 1 non-reponse) is still considered "connecting".  Before Dec 2014 i might see this at wxu 1 every 8 months and not when a storm
was in genesis. Since Dec 2014 (late) i 've seen this 4 or 5 times as a storm is brewing from GoMx to SE. i see it also in some universiries SAT feeds.

[]______________________________[]
http://mainenewsonline.com/content/15022702-level s-atmospheric-co2-past-support-ipcc-s-climate-chan ge

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environ ment/wp/2015/02/04/no-climate-models-didnt-overest imate-global-warming/

Remember
science by its own rules can make errors. It is part of science to question everything. As we move forward we build on WHAT WE NOW KNOW and should error on the side that helps the most. So someone mioght find some error in these reports but understand that humans are in the end disrespecting Nature, gawd or themselves when one knowingly damages the biospheres Eco-system. You need wood sure chop it down BUT PLANT NEED SEEDS FIRST, you like hunting go ahead BUT DO SO knowing that some times one needs to not hunt so that species can exist, and
if you have to hunt (as in for food to survive) use the entire animal for something its the way to show respect to nature, gawd & self.

[]______________________________[]

Here Tazbot, (LOW might be off the page, open in new tab to see)

i hope you like. (see Taz posted a few days ago a
radar image over the Midwest (Illionois) that looked like a
hole.

[]______________________________[]

SAR2401 it's 11:37pm(posted later wxu was down), not just ml-d. It's a rare (last posted in 1993) 100%
purely Galacsic projection and the 100% purely physics projection.


The GAL projection
(cyan oblate area) comes from using the northern equator (northern?, there are 2
Equators but modern science knows not that yet, ancient civilizations had it, but modern science in using strictly physics plus thinking the Africans were wrong, changed it.  It happens from time to time. Just like when modern man
thought that ancient African civilizations** had maps as if Earth was flat (even South American ancient "tribes" had) and these were flat as it projected the view from the equator as if one sliced the Earth in half (THROUGH ITS WIDEST POINT). This is what you see me draw as ml-d's outermost AOI. Imagine drawing an oblate eclipse to match Earth at its widest point by doing so over an Earth cut in half latitude-wise AT THE EQUATOR, then raising that drawn out area as if raising up a prefabricated wall in creating a home. 
The physical oblate area (magenta) is just to show how it would look if one drew this oblate area to match the "outer" area of the planet if centered at ~42 degrees Longitude-wise e.g. NYc. i drew the latter as maybe some historian can find old European maps where Europeans in trying to figure out what African's or S. Americans drawn and match it PHYSICALLY to the "tighter" Northern coordinates, they should have just respected their teachings & just asked & have conversations with members that were peaceful, sound familiar.  DO NOT CONFUSE the magenta with my ml-d AOIs, this magenta elipse is just as a reference if i used physics to explain galacsics or vice-versa, as both would be incorrect.  As an extra watch how notches of clouds pop outwards of the west side of the front containing the AtomsRiver as the LOW /front cross ~42 degree latitude. 42 degree is where the ml-d is centered and is the strongest point of the W-E/E-W "reply HIGHs" i type of. Its as if the wind is feeling a counter-force every time it tries to force an eastward motion/trajectory at that point.
Why equator(s)?

Just like physics has its MAX reactions at the polar regions, Galacsics has its MAX reactions at the equator(s). You know of the aurora borealis a physical MAX "show", well there are the Galacsics equivalent and those are those numerous plasma spheres you see mainly over equatorial regions that have certain Volcanic inner formations and old land masses whose crystals have been super pressured by being left underground for long times/limestone and most are in Mexico/South America which is where you see those spheres of UFOs i call "sphorbs" since the 1970s (i might have misspelled it several times as sphores as my spellchk made a rewrite as if derived from spore)  (not the musical group) i left as a comment (username:: wxretro) clues and names i think the "sphorbs" should be called at a youtube site
that had a VID showing a map of the many points in S. America that these unidentified  flying orbs (not mine) have been spotted.  i really liked the names i gave them as i was ~9 when i first created the name as i used a Greek methodology book to pick out a name that represent center earth winds and spherical lights centered on a feminine name (goddesses, sit down barbamz & LAbonbon i'm speaking of Greek Goddesses), again its at a youtube site i cannot remember which. These sphorbs react to Sun-Planetary  activities just like the aurora borealis BUT when things are happening inward of the Sun.

BTW This is why i state, MIT will discover this as they are working on Plasma tests.

**(These are the people which helped write scriptures that include the speed of light, in parable form i.e. David to the
east (sun light) soldiers of 186,400...parts & books of ancient scriptures where taken out by King David had notes as to measurements, i had an opportunity to see them when i was ~8 and a Teacher thinking i had some deep knowledge took
me to a building that housed old Jewish scrolls (biblical "stuff") and NYC main Library and pointed out how parts OF MY school reports i'd hande in matched ancient scriptures (PS 116 at 33rd st near 3rd ave.). (Key the weird 1950s scifi
music) OH and  South American tribes developed "0" before so called modern man so they had a concept of "circles" but 'cause they looked and acted differently they were considered not an equal part of the puzzle that makes up mankind,
instead they were considered a smaller unequal part of mankind so they must be wrong. Hey we all make mistakes, i'm still waiting for my first one...why is my nose growing?
So nice to get good rain! Got over an inch of rain this morning! :)
Quoting Naga5000:


Snow...you can't complain about us getting all the rain when you bring up snow. :)
Well, yeah, but it also doesn't get down to the teens there either. I mean, what the heck, if I'm going to be freezing my butt off anyway, it would be nice to look out a Christmas card scene like we had last year. Now we get warm for a couple days, get the plants all confused, and they get zapped with a freeze again. I've got a coat rack outside my office with everything from a parka to a sweatshirt and I've used 'em all this year. :-)
Good Morning. Here is the current chart for Conus, relative jet position, and the big picture. The Florida low is not packing much punch over the Peninsula but it has a nice low level circulation with the lower level cloud deck rotating across the Florida Big Bend but a beautiful sunny morning up here. Lots of moisture over the Atlantic however. Looks like one of the bigger weather stories over the next 72 is the Arctic cold digging down into Conus and the rain in the Pacific NW and Cal. That current Western system is very impressive in terms of overall coverage:

A weather system tapping into subtropical moisture will bring abundant rainfall to the Pacific Northwest and northern California through the weekend. The heaviest rainfall is expected Thursday night into Friday. Rainfall amounts in excess of 5 in. are possible through Saturday evening, especially across northern Calif. This system will also bring high winds to the region, with gusts up to 60 mph.
Read More...










Aviation Image
421. MahFL
We got 0.86 in of rain from the system, here in Orange Park.
Quoting vis0:

BUNCHING my posts into 1 as wxu was down (for me) so i took a
needed nap and here is most of what i wanted to post this morning. {SNIP}
Phew! I've downloaded your post to read later. It's too early and my brain doesn't function well without more caffeine. WU was down for me as well when you were trying to post so I guess it's not just us. That's an interesting correlation between SE storms and WU being down. You know what they say about correlation and causation, but WU has been down many more times in the past six months than it has previously in my memory. Other than actual damage to a backbone due to severe weather, I can't imagine how one causes the other but it will be interesting to see if the correlation continues.
423. jpsb
Quoting 325. tlawson48:



"EASTPORT, Maine %u2014 Seventy-six inches and counting.

That%u2019s how much snow has fallen in Eastport since Jan. 25, which is a new 10-day record for documented snowfall anywhere in Maine.


And it is very cold in Maine too.
Quoting 315. sar2401:

Hi Blanche. This looks like a classic Sierra downslope winter wind event. The strongest winds will be from the south and southwest with the highest winds not getting that far out on Highway 50 until late tomorrow. By the time the front passes through and the winds shift wind speeds should be down to 25 mph or less. This is also the kind of wind that raises big clouds of dust out your way so be careful if you have to get out on the highway. At least this is going to be a warm storm there with temperatures probably getting into the low 70's tomorrow. Good luck with the wind.


Ah, fantastic, thank you sar. Looks like, if I get the oldest to watch the linoleum lizard for a bit, I can get the battens screwed down. My goal is to make the roof quit looking like Trailer Trash Convention Center, and limit the weather damage to the OSB underlayment.

(When they repaired the roof, they did a budget job. Slapped OSB over the original roof, and tried to make a "peak" by stacking some 2x4s at the center and nailing the OSB to that, then flashing the edges and laying roofing felt and shingles over that. They didn't even finish nailing down the peak shingles, but those are unusable now - summer heat glued those to each other. And when the southwest corner shingles started to peel up in the prevailing storm winds, their solution was chunks of concrete to hold it down. Translate that work ethic to the rest of the property, and you can see that we will never have a lack of learning experiences.)

I'm not too worried about the dust, but I do worry for the men and women over at NAS. I drink at Boomers occasionally, and the big booming explosion of the man who died in the jet crash a few years back in a similar storm is still pretty fresh in my memory. I'm old enough that the "boys and girls" can safely flirt with me, and sometimes I share photos (stored on my phone) of my mom and dad, taken in a German DP camp, so they can know they and their brothers and sisters have a history to be proud of.
425. jpsb
Quoting 369. wartsttocs:



The forcings behind ice ages are well know. It is called the Milankovich cycle which is comprised of three different cycles ("wobbling" of earth, procession of the equinoxes, etc...). I am just going by memory from this at a late hour so I am sure others could provide more accurate descriptions with links and such. The idea of some mystery cycle that no one can identify or measure coincidentally is a common thing with climate change deniers posting stuff they read on conspiracy blogs. The arctic is warming faster by a factor of 3 or so than the rest of the globe and I wouldn't worry about a laurentide ice sheet reforming anytime soon. All of the snow here in the northeast will melt this year. I am sure about that.


Great news! You have solved the 100,000 year problem Please share your insights with us, thanks.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. Here is the current chart for Conus, relative jet position, and the big picture. The Florida low is not packing much punch over the Peninsula but it has a nice low level circulation with the lower level cloud deck rotating across the Florida Big Bend but a beautiful sunny morning up here.  Lots of moisture over the Atlantic however.  Looks like one of the bigger weather stories over the next 72 is the Arctic cold digging down into Conus and the rain in the Pacific NW and Cal.  That current Western system is very impressive in terms of overall coverage:
I don't know what happens when you paste from that site but it leaves a big blue box in your whole post. It also doesn't close off the bold tag so all the replies are in bold, as well as filling a reply with all kinds of HTML commands in Classic.

At any rate, looks like lots of power outages ahead for northern California, especially the North Bay, which should see 50-55 mph gusts through the gaps inland and near 70 mph on the coast. I doubt this storm will be a big problem in terms of flash floods since it's been so dry but the next storm coming in Sunday night might well cause problems if it drops a lot of rain on top of now saturated soil. We had lots of expansive soils in the North Bay and it can soak up water like a sponge initially. Once it gets saturated, it turns into a giant concrete parking lot, and the water just runs off in sheets.
For those who were waiting for El Nino to be declared today by CPC the waiting continues.See the monthly update at my ENSO Blog
426. sar2401
9:41 AM EST on February 05, 2015

Thanks, I went in and made the corrections....................... :)
Quoting 423. jpsb:



And it is very cold in Maine too. New All-Time Low Temperature Recorded in Maine

Ever so slightly in 2009. So what? Enjoy those sparse cold records while they still happen once in long whiles. That more snow is of course AGW. Modelled, announced, happening - and in less than half a century that's gonna be rain, even more rain.
Quoting 425. jpsb:



Great news! You have solved the 100,000 year problem Please share your insights with us, thanks.

You solved it? An Ice Age Cometh?
Quoting nonblanche:


Ah, fantastic, thank you sar. Looks like, if I get the oldest to watch the linoleum lizard for a bit, I can get the battens screwed down. My goal is to make the roof quit looking like Trailer Trash Convention Center, and limit the weather damage to the OSB underlayment.

(When they repaired the roof, they did a budget job. Slapped OSB over the original roof, and tried to make a "peak" by stacking some 2x4s at the center and nailing the OSB to that, then flashing the edges and laying roofing felt and shingles over that. They didn't even finish nailing down the peak shingles, but those are unusable now - summer heat glued those to each other. And when the southwest corner shingles started to peel up in the prevailing storm winds, their solution was chunks of concrete to hold it down. Translate that work ethic to the rest of the property, and you can see that we will never have a lack of learning experiences.)

I'm not too worried about the dust, but I do worry for the men and women over at NAS. I drink at Boomers occasionally, and the big booming explosion of the man who died in the jet crash a few years back in a similar storm is still pretty fresh in my memory. I'm old enough that the "boys and girls" can safely flirt with me, and sometimes I share photos (stored on my phone) of my mom and dad, taken in a German DP camp, so they can know they and their brothers and sisters have a history to be proud of.
LOL. Linoleum lizard. Heck, all desert roofing jobs include at least a couple of concrete blocks. :-) Even though it makes you look like trailer trash, it's really not a bad idea, even if the roof is put on correctly. When you look at pictures of old Nevada mining camps, most of the roofs had tons of rocks on them to prevent just what you're experiencing. Maybe just lug them up when you know a wind storm is coming and lug them back down again when it's over and you only look like trailer trash for a few days.

EDIT: Yes, indeed, on the fast movers and these kinds of storms. They practice low visibility landings all the time to prepare for the massive dust storms over in the Middle East but there's always one slip up that'll get you. Carrier pilots are in their own group when it comes to flyers, and they have lots to be proud of.

When I was living in motor home (in my trailer trash days), I carried a couple of concrete blocks cut in half. I'd get up on the roof when I knew there was a big storm coming and put them on top of my vent covers. There's nothing that will hold them down from the inside that beats a concrete block on the outside. I kind of miss a wind storm in the motor home. Even with all the hydraulic jacks down and everything battened down, it would still rock in a good wind. If it came at night, it reminded me of being back on the sail boat, being rocked back and forth by the swell. I slept good on those nights.

The winds haven't even hit Reno yet so it looks like the storm is a little slower than predicted. It'll get to you but not until much later tonight, so you still have time to screw things down.
NAM 12z out to 84hr cranks the blowtorch like the GGEM 00z for next week.
433. jpsb
Quoting 429. cRRKampen:


Ever so slightly in 2009. So what? Enjoy those sparse cold records while they still happen once in long whiles. That more snow is of course AGW. Modelled, announced, happening - and in less than half a century that's gonna be rain, even more rain.
Hmmm, thanks for pointing out that the date was 2009. I should have checked the date myself. Old news, I thought it was this year, my bad.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
426. sar2401
9:41 AM EST on February 05, 2015

Thanks, I went in and made the corrections....................... :)
Ah, much better, thanks. You could still use the bold function here to highlight the text but at least the tag will get closed. Most of the time, formatting from the new site doesn't get carried over to Classic, but sometimes it sneaks in.
Quoting 420. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning. Here is the current chart for Conus, relative jet position, and the big picture. The Florida low is not packing much punch over the Peninsula but it has a nice low level circulation with the lower level cloud deck rotating across the Florida Big Bend but a beautiful sunny morning up here. Lots of moisture over the Atlantic however. Looks like one of the bigger weather stories over the next 72 is the Arctic cold digging down into Conus and the rain in the Pacific NW and Cal. That current Western system is very impressive in terms of overall coverage:

A weather system tapping into subtropical moisture will bring abundant rainfall to the Pacific Northwest and northern California through the weekend. The heaviest rainfall is expected Thursday night into Friday. Rainfall amounts in excess of 5 in. are possible through Saturday evening, especially across northern Calif. This system will also bring high winds to the region, with gusts up to 60 mph.
Read More...










Aviation Image


It was a very weak low, but it brought much needed widespread rainfall of 1-2 inches across much of Florida, there were actually a few surprisingly strong thunderstorms down there in Central and Southwest Florida last night that produced a good deal of lightning and strong gusty winds.

Considering instability was basically non-existent, activity was quite strong actually. If you read the discussion out of the NWS down in Ruskin from this morning, they note that upper level support and shear was quite impressive, and it would have likely taken only modest instability to set off severe weather last night. Thankfully the instability did not materialize as expected.

Last nights forecast was 1-2 inches with a few strong thunderstorms but nothing severe, that's exactly what happened. Finally the models nailed the forecast after doing somewhat poor with the last few events, hopefully that trend will continue.
436. jpsb
Quoting 430. cRRKampen:


You solved it? An Ice Age Cometh?
Well clearly an "ice age" will happen again. When? Who knows, not me. Another thing no one knows for certain is what causes glaciation. So it is kind of hard to predict something will or will not happen when no one knows what causes it to happen in the first place.
Quoting 432. Drakoen:

NAM 12z out to 84hr cranks the blowtorch like the GGEM 00z for next week.
I need to take advantage to plant some of my flower seeds.
Quoting 412. Sfloridacat5:

Just about to move into Miami.



We had some good ones a little while ago in Fort Lauderdale. Looks like more coming later. I think this low may be a little stronger as it moves up the east coast. Could be a lot more snow than is being forecast.

well...the monthly ENSO is out by the CPC...they are still more bullish on el nino forming than the aussie mets...however with each passing month they are not near as bullish...looks like the best chance of el nino is now throuh early spring.....however...they are now joining the aussies in stating that even though waters are in the nino range...the atmosphere...is still not responding
Quoting cRRKampen:

Ever so slightly in 2009. So what? Enjoy those sparse cold records while they still happen once in long whiles. That more snow is of course AGW. Modelled, announced, happening - and in less than half a century that's gonna be rain, even more rain.
So what? Because it's a weather record. You'd be jumping up and down if it was a high temperature record. Weather still happens while the climate changes, and one bout of cold or heat is a blip on the radar. Wishing more drought on California so you have a chance to beat up deniers is really beyond the pale. Your constant cynical lectures on what you think will happen in less than 50 years get tiring.
Well clearly an "ice age" will happen again. When? Who knows, not me. Another thing no one knows for certain is what causes glaciation. So it is kind of hard to predict something will or will not happen when no one knows what causes it to happen in the first place.

why is it....that you think something will happen..i/e "ice age"...and admit it's an uneducated science....and yet...when we talk about AGW...something we do know about...you won't accept the conclusions of an overwhelming multitude of experts?
Quoting 426. sar2401:

I don't know what happens when you paste from that site but it leaves a big blue box in your whole post. It also doesn't close off the bold tag so all the replies are in bold, as well as filling a reply with all kinds of HTML commands in Classic.

At any rate, looks like lots of power outages ahead for northern California, especially the North Bay, which should see 50-55 mph gusts through the gaps inland and near 70 mph on the coast. I doubt this storm will be a big problem in terms of flash floods since it's been so dry but the next storm coming in Sunday night might well cause problems if it drops a lot of rain on top of now saturated soil. We had lots of expansive soils in the North Bay and it can soak up water like a sponge initially. Once it gets saturated, it turns into a giant concrete parking lot, and the water just runs off in sheets.
Quoting 408. Naga5000:



The trusty old weather station said 1.55 and it seems like it's pretty good. I'm down the street from the executive airport which scored a 1.29, so an extra quarter of an inch seems plausible. The pool is very full now, however no boats to be seen. Although I think I saw as squirrel building an ark, but it's still in dry dock.


The convective system ended up accelerating as it approached and crossed the state, and was moving about 40 mph, and stronger embedded cells as fast as 50 mph so I was starting to wonder if the forecast amounts would materialize, but it was an efficient rain maker for February. My parents in Pinellas County said the stronger cell that blew through around 2 AM woke them up, it only last about 8 minutes but they said they got over 0.75 during that short duration along with a good deal of wind and lightning, I'll have to check with them to find out their exact total later for the whole event.
Ditto for here. 21F forecasted tonight, 68F for Sunday highs. Have had plenty of rain however.


Quoting 410. sar2401:

I don't want to say it's dry here but my squirrels spend most of their time climbing up into the bird feeder for a drink. I couldn't figure out why I was having to fill it up every couple of days until I got up early one day and found about six squirrels happily slurping it up. They are apparently the only creature that can drink water faster than Radar Dog. I'm so sick of this psychotic weather. I get a lousy 0.30" while you guys get all the rain, it's going down to 24 tonight, and then it goes up into the 70's Saturday and Sunday, after which we get another weak front on Monday and yet another blast of cold air that still doesn't give us any snow. At this point, I don't care if it's global warming or global cooling as long as it lasts for more than three days.
:-)
Quoting Jedkins01:


It was a very weak low, but it brought much needed widespread rainfall of 1-2 inches across much of Florida, there were actually a few surprisingly strong thunderstorms down there in Central and Southwest Florida last night that produced a good deal of lightning and strong gusty winds.

Considering instability was basically non-existent, activity was quite strong actually. If you read the discussion out of the NWS down in Ruskin from this morning, they note that upper level support and shear was quite impressive, and it would have likely taken only modest instability to set off severe weather last night. Thankfully the instability did not materialize as expected.

Last nights forecast was 1-2 inches with a few strong thunderstorms but nothing severe, that's exactly what happened. Finally the models nailed the forecast after doing somewhat poor with the last few events, hopefully that trend will continue.
Did you read my post about watching those storms as they came in on the lightning detector? Those were some honkin' storms out in the Gulf. If they had continued inland at that level, there would have been severe storms. It looked like they started to weaken immediately when they got over the shelf off Florida and didn't have the deep warm water to support them. I was impressed.
Quoting 404. sar2401:

OMG! You have the highest total so far. Any signs of boats floating past or does it look like the car will make it through?


Word has it governor Scott will be declaring a state of emergency, press conference should be airing soon on the dangerous situation after the onslaught of an inch or so of rain. Word has it that it might be enough rain to make the grass grow 30% faster, which is not good news for the residents.

Also Marge Eloise is saying she won't be coming back to Florida because the travel guide promised her trip to Tampa Bay would feature no rain and flip flop weather. She is furious.
From Cape Weather

Storms cause power outages, downed trees
Link
Quoting ricderr:
well...the monthly ENSO is out by the CPC...they are still more bullish on el nino forming than the aussie mets...however with each passing month they are not near as bullish...looks like the best chance of el nino is now throuh early spring.....however...they are now joining the aussies in stating that even though waters are in the nino range...the atmosphere...is still not responding
Did I read that right? A chance of El Nino between now and early spring and then neutral after that? What's record for the shortest El Nino? I get the feeling there's a certain amount of clinging to over a year's worth of forecasts and hoping desperately something will happen.
417. vis0
1:59 PM GMT on February 05, 2015

Equator... ancient writings... Fascinating. Thanks.

Skye,
If you're around. I'm seeing the study done on aerosol connection to precip, in the blog header. I somehow can't picture aerosols causing drought in "wide open spaces" like out here in the middle. Right now I can't buy that concept. Will be interesting to see what future research shows. Interesting already,... The first CalWater study in 2010 shed light on some of these uncertainties, as well as the importance of aerosols in either stimulating or suppressing rain and snow at various altitudes. A separate project called HIPPO showed that a surprisingly large amount of aerosols can reach the North Pacific from Asia, which implies they might be able to influence the evolution of some ARs. Not so sure what legislation or anything else could do about AR formation. If anything is learned from it and the US government stepped in to try altering weather to make rain, as has been tried in the past, you never know. Right now, I'd say, as easily as efforts like these might be helpful for California, chances are things could go horribly wrong there or elsewhere. Desal works wonders.
Did I read that right? A chance of El Nino between now and early spring and then neutral after that? What's record for the shortest El Nino? I get the feeling there's a certain amount of clinging to over a year's worth of forecasts and hoping desperately something will happen.

i do believe the latter part of your statement is correct.....same as some bloggers here......hmmm...maybe they're one and the same?????..
Quoting 444. sar2401:

Did you read my post about watching those storms as they came in on the lightning detector? Those were some honkin' storms out in the Gulf. If they had continued inland at that level, there would have been severe storms. It looked like they started to weaken immediately when they got over the shelf off Florida and didn't have the deep warm water to support them. I was impressed.


Yeah that's what the NWS mentioned in their discussion this morning, dynamic support was pretty impressive and so was the shear . Fortunately for them the very stable over the shelf waters and over land did indeed act like a road block for severe potential, and that was well predicted and anticipated. That's usually the main factor that helps keep severe events more tame and in check for Floridians during spring severe weather season.

However occasionally if the low level jet is strong enough and dynamics are really strong, the stability of the cool shelf waters that induces sinking air in that region can be overcome. The most recent time was April fools 2011 where more than 10 tornadoes tracked through the Tampa Bay area along with a straight winds recorded up to 105 mph at Indian Rocks Beach in the Tampa Bay area. The "fun and sun" aircraft show was hit with many planes destroyed.. People were injured at that event and over the Howard Franklin bridge from overturned cars due to a tornado over Pinellas that became a waterspout over the Bay and then hit Tampa again as a tornado.

Thankfully no deaths occurred and no critical injuries. However in February 2007 some resident weren't so lucky, over 20 were killed in a tornado outbreak, some of the tornadoes were rated EF2-EF3.

The tricky thing here in Florida is unlike where you live, where strong spring systems bring more frequent threats of strong tornadoes, in the Florida spring, it's often a fine line between if there will be enough dynamics with just enough instability to overcome the shelf waters and determine whether there will be little to no severe weather and just a fun thunderstorm or enough to threaten lives and property.
454. vis0

Quoting 321. sar2401:

Sorry, Vis, but jumping cursor arrows and supersonic satellite views make me dizzy. :-) Can you try slowing that whole thing down a bit and then explain what I'm supposed to be looking at?
might try later, speed it up to upload faster as am getting prepared to take parent for checkups and had to take care of needed paperwork before my nap and other uploads. If i do edit this VId i'll only post link on Dr. Masters with the Quoting 321. sar2401: Dr. Masters entry2909. leading to the VID URL  Good thing ou let me know that "jumping cursor arrows ... views make me dizzy" as i was thinking of sending you some 1930s takies or a short phenakistoscope with sing-a-longs with the "follow the bouncing ball" feature. "sing with, sing with me" (taken from a great Grube Tube caller) On the moon with a .°.

in a "un yet related" newz FAA to "regulate"...  ...moon... :: http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/03/us-usa- moon-business-idUSKBN0L715F20150203
Quoting 448. SFLWeatherman:

Storms cause power outages, downed trees
Link


This is interesting to me, some palm trees even blew over, makes me wonder just how strong the winds were. I would think the winds would have to be well over 50 mph when you consider trees have evolved to deal with tropical storm and hurricane force wind gusts for a widespread area and long duration in that area.

I know where I grew up in the Tampa Bay area, nothing more than small limbs would come down unless gusts were 60 to 70 mph and above.

There was a severe thunderstorm warning down there this morning, so it wasn't a blind event though.
Quoting 427. Tropicsweatherpr:

For those who were waiting for El Nino to be declared today by CPC the waiting continues.See the monthly update at my ENSO Blog
Hi Tropics, I doubt their will be a El Nino any time soon, more like a La Nina for the summer with a high Atlantic Ace Index. Maybe in the winter of 2016 or 2017, but I doubt that to. Cold PDO coming and that is usually unfavorable for Nino's.
Quoting Jedkins01:


This is interesting to me, some palm trees even blew over, makes me wonder just how strong the winds were. I would think the winds would have to be well over 50 mph when you consider trees have evolved to deal with tropical storm and hurricane force wind gusts for a widespread area and long duration in that area.

I know where I grew up in the Tampa Bay area, nothing more than small limbs would come down unless gusts were 60 to 70 mph and above.

There was a severe thunderstorm warning down there this morning, so it wasn't a blind event though.
There were some fairly strong winds associated with this front all long the west coast overnight as well. Looks like 45 mph was the highest but lots of wind gusts in the 35 to 40 range. It really looked like a pretty significant band last night as it was approaching the coast. It seems as if the are two routes for severe weather down there. One is these Gulf transiting storms like we just had and the other are strong cold fronts coming down from the NW that don't have much of an over water component. Just from my admittedly limited knowledge of looking at past storm reports, it looks like the strong cold fronts produce the widespread severe weather and larger tornadoes while the Gulf storms produce more scattered and somewhat less severe weather in terms of large tornadoes. We will occasionally get a low in the Gulf that is just far enough inland to produce severe weather, but the vast majority of our storms are the same kinds of cold fronts that make it down there. At least we have upstream weather to gauge how severe things might get. With these storms off the Gulf, that's a lot harder. I'm glad I'm not a forecaster down there.
Quoting 441. ricderr:

Well clearly an "ice age" will happen again. When? Who knows, not me. Another thing no one knows for certain is what causes glaciation. So it is kind of hard to predict something will or will not happen when no one knows what causes it to happen in the first place.

why is it....that you think something will happen..i/e "ice age"...and admit it's an uneducated science....and yet...when we talk about AGW...something we do know about...you won't accept the conclusions of an overwhelming multitude of experts?
Hi ric, how much do we really know about climate change. good or bad? Only a very few really know what's happening and none are on this blog, and the few that really know are being very quite.
Hi ric, how much do we really know about climate change. good or bad? Only a very few really know what's happening and none are on this blog, and the few that really know are being very quite.

native...not to sound rude or smug...but just like my weather forecasts...i do not use the words of bloggers...politicians...or pundits... concerning climate change...i read what the learned experts in the field have to say...and go from there
That 2007 outbreak in Florida was terrible; I worked for DCF at the time and we lost one of our offices-service centers in Central Florida in terms of the roof and papers; amazingly though, no one was severely injured as they went into the interior rooms before part of the roof ripped off in one corner of the building and windows blew.

I will say that the worst damage I have personally seen in Orlando-Central Florida from winds and tornadoes was during the April 1993 "storm of the century"; I was in Clermont that week and it was a nightmare the night the tornadoes came through with all the downed trees and damage (it also included hail in some pockets and I was in a car outside my friend's house waiting for the hail to stop before making a run for the house).
Quoting NativeSun:
Hi ric, how much do we really know about climate change.
If "we" means all of humanity, I'd say "tons". There have been literally tens of thousands of peer-reviewed scientific papers published demonstrating that knowledge, and many millions of observations made bolstering it.
Quoting NativeSun:
good or bad?
Bad, mostly. It's almost all bad news.
Quoting NativeSun:
Only a very few really know what's happening...
There are of thousands of climate and earth scientists around the globe who are keenly aware of what's happening...
Quoting NativeSun:
none are on this blog
There is a small handful of very knowledgeable people in this very forum. And, of course, the blog's author(s) have expert-level knowledge of the subject.
Quoting NativeSun:
...the few that really know are being very quite.
Quite what? If you mean "quiet", that's simply not true. Many have chosen to ignore them and their many warnings, that's true. But that doesn't mean they're being silent.
Quoting 446. Jedkins01:



Word has it governor Scott will be declaring a state of emergency, press conference should be airing soon on the dangerous situation after the onslaught of an inch or so of rain. Word has it that it might be enough rain to make the grass grow 30% faster, which is not good news for the residents.

Also Marge Eloise is saying she won't be coming back to Florida because the travel guide promised her trip to Tampa Bay would feature no rain and flip flop weather. She is furious.


If the Kudzu grows 30% faster you're all doomed!
GFS 12z run looks similar to the past systems for early next week with the low track through southern PA. I guess we need the models to show a low/shortwave going down into Cuba so we have several hundred miles of wiggle room for when the models want to trend north.
466. vis0

Quoting 398. sar2401:

If you haven't seen this real-time lightning detector site, it's pretty cool. I was going to post this last night when I couldn't log on, but those thunderstorms over the Gulf were pretty intense when they were over open water in the vicinity of the loop current. There were times when the storms had over 100 strokes per minute, which is a lot. I could tell by the distribution of the lightning that the incoming blob was going to give general rains from Tampa down to Ft. Meyers. What was really interesting was watching the storms go from the open water to the continental shelf. The shallower water couldn't support the big storms and the stroke count dropped to about 10 a minute. There's a few storms still off the west coast but nothing like last night. As the storms move off Florida and north of Grand Bahama, into the Gulf Stream, the lightning is developing again. For me, at least, watching the amount and distribution of lightning has given me a better idea of what we're in for when we have convection.
Very nice site, an assumption but it can also be called a "who cares vs don't give a" detector. How come? When lightning strikes in Euroupe an area the size of thw USofA's SE pops up with DOZENS!!! of detectors informing the public. In the USofA if a lightning strikes Florida at best 6 detectors show up and 3 are north of the Mason Dixon line....i bet ya, if they had a "whats on TV detector" (shows TV being turned ON and to what ch) USofA would blow its fuse...hey look LATIN infotainment news good looking people ------gotta go.
467. jpsb
Quoting 441. ricderr:

Well clearly an "ice age" will happen again. When? Who knows, not me. Another thing no one knows for certain is what causes glaciation. So it is kind of hard to predict something will or will not happen when no one knows what causes it to happen in the first place.

why is it....that you think something will happen..i/e "ice age"...and admit it's an uneducated science....and yet...when we talk about AGW...something we do know about...you won't accept the conclusions of an overwhelming multitude of experts?


As I have often explained I believe the climate changes in fairly regular cycles. And since the paleo climate records support a cyclical climate I am confident I am correct in my believe.

Ice ages (glaciation really since we are currently in an ice age) happen and it appears they are now happening in a 100,000 year cycle. I do not expect that to change much. Which is why I think the continental glaciers will return in the next few thousand years or so.

There are lots of experts with serious doubts about CAGW. Also the climate models upon which CAGW is based are seriously under performing. Questions have been raised about the quality of the data supporting CAGW. Satellite data shows much less (if any at all) warming. (RSS no warming for 18 years, UAH no warming for 10 years). Measured forcing of CO2 is much less then used by the IPCC (See Judith Curry's work on CO2 forcing). And the IPCC predicted warming requires an additional H2O forcing. CO2 can't significantly warm the atmosphere all by itself at concentrations likely to occur in the next 100 years or so. See The Missing
Hotspot
for more on this.

And lastly there is the nature of the debate and the meanness shown by proponents of CAGW towards those of us with well thought out doubts. I find it amusing that just about every weather event is offer as more proof of GW. Warm temp=GW, cold temp=GW, less snow=GW, more snow=GW, less sea ice= GW, more sea ice=GW. More rain=GW, less rain=GW. I mean really? Every weather event hot/cold/wet/dry is because of GW? yea right.

I first investigated AGW back in the early mid 90's when I worked at NASA (JSC) as a computer programmer. Early on I discovered that the climate models treated the Sun as a constant. Hmmm, that is when I started to have serious doubts about the climate models that the theory is based on. I would hope the model no longer treat the Sun as a constant. While watts/meter squared is fairly constant the Sun is more then just watts/meter squared.

Hopefully my post to you will not be flagged and removed. You seem reasonable which is why I took the time to reply.
Quoting 458. sar2401:

There were some fairly strong winds associated with this front all long the west coast overnight as well. Looks like 45 mph was the highest but lots of wind gusts in the 35 to 40 range. It really looked like a pretty significant band last night as it was approaching the coast. It seems as if the are two routes for severe weather down there. One is these Gulf transiting storms like we just had and the other are strong cold fronts coming down from the NW that don't have much of an over water component. Just from my admittedly limited knowledge of looking at past storm reports, it looks like the strong cold fronts produce the widespread severe weather and larger tornadoes while the Gulf storms produce more scattered and somewhat less severe weather in terms of large tornadoes. We will occasionally get a low in the Gulf that is just far enough inland to produce severe weather, but the vast majority of our storms are the same kinds of cold fronts that make it down there. At least we have upstream weather to gauge how severe things might get. With these storms off the Gulf, that's a lot harder. I'm glad I'm not a forecaster down there.


I found forecasting in TLH to be harder than in Central Pa, NJ or the DC metro area because of the data void over the gulf in the 80s when I was there but also because the space and time scales of the weather systems are both smaller. Everybody complains about how their area is uniquely difficult to forecast for and I will be contrarian and say that many other places are tougher than the Mid Atlantic.
Quoting 460. ricderr:

Hi ric, how much do we really know about climate change. good or bad? Only a very few really know what's happening and none are on this blog, and the few that really know are being very quite.

native...not to sound rude or smug...but just like my weather forecasts...i do not use the words of bloggers...politicians...or pundits... concerning climate change...i read what the learned experts in the field have to say...and go from there
Hi Ric, your not being rude, just saying only a few really know what is happening with climate change.


Clearing skies on the way to C FL :)
#467

CAGW is a made up term by those who deny science. Nowhere does it appear in the scientific discourse. It only appears on climate conspiracy and denial websites put forth by those who lie and misinform. Your use of it is quite telling. Peddle your crap elsewhere.
Sure would be great if you would update this story as it unfolds. Surely there is a better idea, at this point, of the amount of moisture and the areas being affected.
Quoting jpsb:


As I have often explained I believe the climate changes in fairly regular cycles.

[snip]
"There are lots of experts with serious doubts about CAGW."
Which experts?

"[T]he climate models upon which CAGW is based are seriously under performing."
Which models?

"Questions have been raised about the quality of the data supporting CAGW."
What type of questions? And by whom?

"Satellite data shows much less (if any at all) warming."
Which satellites? Which data?

"UAH no warming for 10 years"
Why just 10 years?

"Measured forcing of CO2 is much less then used by the IPCC"
Please explain, and show your work.

"CO2 can't significantly warm the atmosphere all by itself at concentrations likely to occur in the next 100 years or so."
Please explain, and show your work.

"I find it amusing that just about every weather event is offer as more proof of GW."
By whom?

"Early on I discovered that the climate models treated the Sun as a constant."
Which models?
The big West Coast storm is still on track to inundate northern California over the next several days. I'll post an update on the situation later today.
Quoting 426. sar2401:

I don't know what happens when you paste from that site but it leaves a big blue box in your whole post. It also doesn't close off the bold tag so all the replies are in bold, as well as filling a reply with all kinds of HTML commands in Classic.

At any rate, looks like lots of power outages ahead for northern California, especially the North Bay, which should see 50-55 mph gusts through the gaps inland and near 70 mph on the coast. I doubt this storm will be a big problem in terms of flash floods since it's been so dry but the next storm coming in Sunday night might well cause problems if it drops a lot of rain on top of now saturated soil. We had lots of expansive soils in the North Bay and it can soak up water like a sponge initially. Once it gets saturated, it turns into a giant concrete parking lot, and the water just runs off in sheets.


Here in the East Bay, the subsoil in my garden is still damp from the December rains, even while there's a dried-out surface layer about an inch deep. Long cool nights and high humidity. I'm guessing that if we had a repeat of that deluge, things would flood out very quickly, not so much around us since we have fair drainage, but in the prone areas like the North Bay valleys.
"Ciclone Subtropical means in Portuguese "Subtropical Cyclone/Storm".

Here in Porto Alegre we already have the effects of it. 5 minutes ago a isolated rain arrives here but was short duration. We have a lot of winds here, yesterday we got 40 mph in gusts. Before the rain has fallen here we had 90ºF and now we have 80,6ºF. Still wet and stuffy.
"Ciclone Subtropical means in Portuguese "Subtropical Cyclone/Storm".



Here in Porto Alegre we already have the effects of it. 5 minutes ago a isolated rain arrives here but was short duration. We have a lot of winds here, yesterday we got 40 mph in gusts. Before the rain has fallen here we had 90ºF and now we have 80,6ºF. Still wet and stuffy.
Quoting tampabaymatt:


Clearing skies on the way to C FL :)


Yep, I thought I'd see a couple more bands of rain this morning, but everything north of Fort Myers just dissipated.
So my final total is .41" at the house.
S.W. Regional Airport .46"
Page Field .70" (official)

Radar estimates of over 2" in Collier County just south of Naples. Naples Airport's rain bucket must be broken.
Quoting 419. sar2401:

Well, yeah, but it also doesn't get down to the teens there either. I mean, what the heck, if I'm going to be freezing my butt off anyway, it would be nice to look out a Christmas card scene like we had last year. Now we get warm for a couple days, get the plants all confused, and they get zapped with a freeze again. I've got a coat rack outside my office with everything from a parka to a sweatshirt and I've used 'em all this year. :-)


One benefit of continued moderate cold in DC is I haven't had to UNcover the plants.. Just leave them in their cold winter quarters or covered in the garden. Covers flatten out the temperature cycles and increase hardiness.
Alternating warmth and cold makes a lot more work for me and reduces hardiness. THis year even uncovered broccoli in the garden has (so far) survived and we've had teens with strong winds and all day freezes several times this winter. Winter 2013-2014 was devastating because of the sharp warmups in between arctic outbreaks.
Not so this winter.

480. jpsb
re 471

CAGW stand for Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming. The term is used to differentiate between a little beneficial AGW as opposed to a lot of (catastrochic) AGW. The term is used by luke warmers, such as myself that consed that man is probably causing a little warming but nothing to really worry about. Certainly nothing to panic over.
Yep, I thought I'd see a couple more bands of rain this morning, but everything north of Fort Myers just dissipated.
So my final total is .41" at the house.
S.W. Regional Airport .46"
Page Field .70" (official)


shoot girl....we beat your totals on our little rain event........last week...we gonna have to start classifying you as dessert...

:-)
482. vis0
NOT actual quoting using Q# as a reference.
Quoting 321. sar2401:

.................lightning detector..............

i also like this site as if one has 2 TABs to the same area on Earth the TAB not used will store the last few strikes and if one has their capturing program they can capture cluster areas.
Looking at the vapor loop of the Pacific, it's now looking like that atmospheric river/moisture plume that was the focus of attention for the upcoming rain event is petering out, with the deep moisture from the subtropics near Hawaii now cut off.

However, looking at the northerly stream associated with the jet, I'm wondering if this might be what the new GFS model was "seeing" rather than that dying plume. Not exactly an "atmospheric river", but just a regular trough-front dynamic system. It remains to be seen if the forecast precipitation amounts are realistic given the lack of cold air and a true deep-layer tropical tap. This may depend more on the sluggishness of the frontal boundary than anything else, allowing for a longer duration rain over a given locale.
Saturday's setup
Direct connection from the tropics feeding into northern California.
The California event will be pretty intense; not just the rain but high winds as well.  The short-term (6 hour) GFS surface model run is already showing 40 knots winds at the coast.  It's essentially the equivalent of a tropical storm in terms of the wind and rain from this event. 
Quoting 478. Sfloridacat5:



Yep, I thought I'd see a couple more bands of rain this morning, but everything north of Fort Myers just dissipated.
So my final total is .41" at the house.
S.W. Regional Airport .46"
Page Field .70" (official)

Radar estimates of over 2" in Collier County just south of Naples. Naples Airport's rain bucket must be broken.


I had 1.46" from this event when I left the house this morning. But, it poured rain my entire way to work, so I'm guessing I'll see around 1.75" when I get home today.
Quoting 480. jpsb:

re 471

CAGW stand for Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming. The term is used to differentiate between a little beneficial AGW as opposed to a lot of (catastrochic) AGW. The term is used by luke warmers, such as myself that consed that man is probably causing a little warming but nothing to really worry about. Certainly nothing to panic over.


How sure are you that the human-caused warming will stop at "a little"? Are you proposing that we reduce CO2 emissions to prevent the human-caused warming from becoming "a lot"?
12Z GFS at 168 hours
This looks serious. I don't ever think I have seen that before in the Northwest.

Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Even though Florida has lots of tornadoes, they are much lower rated than in the surrounding states. The numbers are really quite striking.

F0 Tornadoes -

Florida : 1828
Alabama : 606

F1 Tornadoes -

Florida : 851
Alabama : 721

F4 Tornadoes -

Florida : 2
Alabama : 35

F5 Tornadoes -

Florida : 0
Alabama : 9

Link

I knew Florida in general had more but weaker tornadoes but, until I looked up the numbers, I didn't realize how many. Three time more F0's than Alabama is amazing. 585 people have died in Alabama during F4 and F5 tornadoes compared to 11 in Florida. We've had 16 people die in F1's while Florida has had 7. Even with the huge amount of F0 tornadoes in Florida, only one person has died as a result. One person also died in Alabama with one-third of the number of tornadoes. While Florida leads in total numbers, Alabama and Mississippi have had far more deadly tornadoes. It would be an interesting study to see why so many more people die in Alabama than Florida from even the same class of tornadoes. It can't just be mobile homes, since Florida has plenty of those too.
NCEP GFS PWAT


JeffMasters has created a new entry.
why does AGW need to be catastrophic? does the scale only go from catastrophic to benign with nothing in between? we purposely avoid things in our life every day that are nowhere near catastrophic, yet we still avoid them.
494. vis0

Quoting 431. sar2401:

LOL. Linoleum lizard. Heck, all desert roofing jobs include at least a couple of concrete blocks. :-) Even though it makes you look like trailer trash, it's really not a bad idea, even if the roof is put on correctly. When you look at pictures of old Nevada mining camps, most of the roofs had tons of rocks on them to prevent just what you're experiencing. Maybe just lug them up when you know a wind storm is coming and lug them back down again when it's over and you only look like trailer trash for a few days.

EDIT: Yes, indeed, on the fast movers and these kinds of storms. They practice low visibility landings all the time to prepare for the massive dust storms over in the Middle East but there's always one slip up that'll get you. Carrier pilots are in their own group when it comes to flyers, and they have lots to be proud of.

When I was living in motor home (in my trailer trash days), I carried a couple of concrete blocks cut in half. I'd get up on the roof when I knew there was a big storm coming and put them on top of my vent covers. There's nothing that will hold them down from the inside that beats a concrete block on the outside. I kind of miss a wind storm in the motor home. Even with all the hydraulic jacks down and everything battened down, it would still rock in a good wind. If it came at night, it reminded me of being back on the sail boat, being rocked back and forth by the swell. I slept good on those nights.

The winds haven't even hit Reno yet so it looks like the storm is a little slower than predicted. It'll get to you but not until much later tonight, so you still have time to screw things down.
You don't have roof suspenders?
In Puerto Rico in 1978 after grandma had roof damage from wind gusts on a back yard tool shed that was covered with corrugated sheet metal/zinc  & a neighbor whom actually used shingles on his tool shed (classy?) . i had a aunt that new the fabric business order a strong stretchable fabric, that had no "catch" to the fabric. She had it sewn to my requirements  was 4 feet wide by 10 feet (not stretched) used 5 pieces in total. i bought strong nyloyn rope & those hooks used to connect the ended of rope for drying clothing outdoors, they have a very strong almost closed iron loop, like a strong bigger key chain fastener that have a small spring opening . Feed nylyon rope through both ends of the fabric cut & tied to size used 2 hooks on either end to hold onto bolts. Bolts already in the ground (never ask why those homes had bolts into their foundation) and she or neighbor never had wind problems. when not in use you pulled them off. When needed they just used a bamboo pole (16ft, only need 12 ft) to put one end up at a time, Grandma (goodness rest her soul) would do it herself at age 94.
Quoting Grothar:
This looks serious. I don't ever think I have seen that before in the Northwest.

How about January 3-4, 1982 for California? 25" in just 36 hours in the Santa Cruz Mountains and 31" in the same time period at Warm Springs Dam in Sonoma County. Of course, that was during our last super El Nino, so there's no way that can happen this year...right?
496. vis0

Quoting 492. WunderAlertBot:

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
2 alerts for a new/later blog under one blogbyte,  someone pinch me...

.. NOT YOU!. ............time to pop , more popcorn
Quoting 491. Grothar:

NCEP GFS PWAT




Although the graphic depicts a nice amount of precipitable water already passing thru Central California, we have had no rain at all. Even the north coast has only just now started reporting some local moderate rain. Most of the moisture has probably simply been condensed out as clouds as in most tropical plumes that go thru our region in the absence of cold air dynamics. The more interesting moisture is to the west, not the current plume. That moisture is closer to the jet max and left front quad outflow. Still, the jet has yet to break through the strong ridge. Nearby barometers are actually rising right now, and the sun is out here in the Bay Area. There are high clouds of course, but nothing in the mid or low levels. Winds are calm. Buoys are showing 25 knot winds. If the forecast of a deluge busts, with the new GFS model and the concentrated special monitoring in place, this should still be an excellent research bonanza regardless.
Quoting 495. sar2401:

How about January 3-4, 1982 for California? 25" in just 36 hours in the Santa Cruz Mountains and 31" in the same time period at Warm Springs Dam in Sonoma County. Of course, that was during our last super El Nino, so there's no way that can happen this year...right?

I recall that day well. Where I was, all was calm with a thick fog. Suddenly, it just started raining heavily. It didn't stop for 24 hours. When it was over, I had just over 10 inches in the rain bucket. Never seen such a rainfall since in these parts.
Quoting 493. CuriousAboutClimate:

why does AGW need to be catastrophic? does the scale only go from catastrophic to benign with nothing in between? we purposely avoid things in our life every day that are nowhere near catastrophic, yet we still avoid them.


It is not everywhere so. But it will be in general. This, e.g., is the future for California, Sao Paolo, Maghreb (already there), huge parts of Africa south of the equator. Annual precip down 40% or more.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/peter-h-gleick/wate r-and-conflict-in-syr_b_5404774.html
Quoting 440. sar2401:

So what? Because it's a weather record. You'd be jumping up and down if it was a high temperature record. Weather still happens while the climate changes, and one bout of cold or heat is a blip on the radar. Wishing more drought on California so you have a chance to beat up deniers is really beyond the pale. Your constant cynical lectures on what you think will happen in less than 50 years get tiring.

"You'd be jumping up and down if it was a high temperature record. "

Ha, ha. I'd have been to the edge of the universe and back a quadrillion times if I jumped for high temp records. Know why? Because they have become the norm, already outfactoring cold records by ten or so (closer to twenty in places), and the margins of those records are often ballistic.
Link

So I jump for one of those scarce cold records, that I do.


Quoting 436. jpsb:

Well clearly an "ice age" will happen again. When? Who knows, not me. Another thing no one knows for certain is what causes glaciation. So it is kind of hard to predict something will or will not happen when no one knows what causes it to happen in the first place.

Reality is we already put off next ice age by a millenium or more. We obliterated more than the entire way of 8.000 years to the next ice age already.
Link

"Well clearly an "ice age" will happen again. When? Who knows, not me. " - typical contradiction. Perhaps rather be silent and listen to those who some more.