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Atmospheric River deluges California and the Southwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:25 PM GMT on December 22, 2010

An “Atmospheric River” of extremely moist air continues to affect the Southwest U.S. today, and flooding rains of 1 – 2” with isolated amounts of 2 – 4” can be expected across Southern California, western and central Arizona, southeastern Nevada, and southwestern Utah. The heaviest rains will fall over the coastal mountains south of Los Angeles. The storm began on Friday night, and has brought some rather remarkable rains and snows to the Southwest. Crestline, California, in the mountains just east of Los Angeles, has received 20.05” of rain since Friday. The Sierra Mountains near Sequoia National Park received an astonishing 17 feet of snow at Pescoes since Friday night. Other heavy snow amounts from the storm include 6.4' at Heavenly near Lake Tahoe, 6.5' in Crested Butte, Colorado, and 9 – 13.5' in Mammoth in the Sierras. Some other rainfall amounts from NOAA's latest Storm Summary:

...ARIZONA...
Iron Spring 11.14"
Black Rock 9.23"
Kingman 3.86"
Grand Canyon West 3.15"

...CALIFORNIA...
Crestline 20.05"
Nature Point 18.60"
Tanback 16.94"
Mammoth Lakes 12.82"
Santa Barbara 12.39"
Los Angeles-USC 6.66"
San Diego 4.22"
San Francisco Airport 2.44"

...NEVADA...
Mount Charleston 12.66"
Las Vegas, 24 miles WNW 8.99"
Reno 2.59"

...UTAH...
Gutz Peak 15.90"
Little Grassy 15.10"
Zion National Park 6.76"


Figure 1. The total amount of rainfall one could get if all the moisture in the air were condensed and fell out as rain is called the Total Precipitable Water (TPW). Here, TPW values from microwave satellite measurements are plotted, and show a plume of very moist air connecting the subtropics near Hawaii with Southern California. TPW vales in excess of 20 mm (about 0.8 inches, blue and warmer colors) are often associated with heavy rainfall events capable of causing flooding. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS.

“Atmospheric Rivers” was a term coined in the 1990s to describe plumes of moisture that ride up out of the subtropics into the mid-latitudes along the axis of a cold front. Traditional water vapor satellite imagery does not show these plumes very well, and it was only when microwave satellite imagery from polar orbiting satellites became available in the late 1990s that the full importance of these Atmospheric Rivers came to be revealed. Atmospheric Rivers account for a significant portion of California's cold season rainfall and snowfall, and an entire session was devoted to them at last week's American Geophysical Union (AGU) meeting in San Francisco, the world's largest Earth Science meeting.

Jeff Masters
High water/flooding
High water/flooding
The Virgin and Santa Clara rivers are topping out at flood stage at St. George, Utah. Been raining for 3 days and more on the way.
Desert Rainbow
Desert Rainbow
desert rainbow
None Shall Pass
None Shall Pass
That right there between me and the guy on the far side is the road....and the only one that, as far as I'm aware leads out of Pamo Valley. So he might be stuck there. I drove across there just yesterday!

Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

sending it your way...hope you get something but you don't want what we had. Light, lovely, easing of the drought conditions rain. Good luck to you.

Taking my soggy butt to bed.

Quoting melwerle:
sending it your way...hope you get something but you don't want what we had. Light, lovely, easing of the drought conditions rain. Good luck to you.

Taking my soggy butt to bed.



Yea i def dont want all that rain at once.. But hope it clears up soon in time for christmas.. Goodnight and gotcha y'all in my prayers.. Be safe and Happy Holidays!
Central South Carolina on Sunday:

A chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 41. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

From NWS Columbia, SC

So far, so good. Looks like it'll be staying that way.


wow.. that would be crazy..


GEM Model
506. Inyo
Quoting JFLORIDA:

I think no matter what come jan 1st something notable will also occur.


Well, the latest run wasn't a rainy wash-out in Vermont but would probably have freezing rain and a wintry mix mess.
Quoting caneswatch:
Central South Carolina on Sunday:

A chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 41. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

From NWS Columbia, SC

So far, so good. Looks like it'll be staying that way.


Yea thats being safe for now.. Everyday can change if there is potential storm.. Just saying! But right now models arent agreeing at the moment.. Just a safe forecast..
508. xcool
cmc hmmm
Quoting xcool:
cmc hmmm


Sup Scott.. U made it.. ;)
510. xcool


quite interesting .window shear map...
511. xcool
yay im here
Quoting xcool:


quite interesting .window shear map...


Yea i would say..
514. xcool


515. xcool
brb
Euro is starting and CMC is i think or almost done with the runs..
Quoting JFLORIDA:
if anything, the sun contributed very slight overall cooling in the past 25 years.


which did not happen.





Is it going to be argued now a combination of unknown and mysterious cycles will certainly save us?


Since we're talking sun, what about this study?

http://www.nasa.gov/topics/solarsystem/features/solarcycle-sorce.html

Just a sample:

"...As recently as the 1970s, scientists assumed that the sun's irradiance was unchanging; the amount of energy it expels was even called the "solar constant." However, instruments similar to the Total Solar Irradiance Monitor (TIM) and the Solar Irradiance Monitor (SIM) have made clear that the sun's output actually fluctuates in sync with changes in the sun's magnetic field.

Indeed, TIM and its predecessor instruments, whose records of irradiance began in 1978, show that the sun's output varies by about 0.1 percent as the sun cycles through periods of high and low electromagnetic activity every eleven years or so. In practice, this cycling means the sun's brightness, as measured by TIM, goes up a bit when large numbers of sunspots and accompanying bright spots called faculae are present on the sun, yet goes down slightly when sunspots and faculae are sparse, like they have been in the last few years as the sun has gone through an unusually quiet period.

However, there is a critical difference between the SIM and TIM, explains Jerry Harder, the lead SIM instrument scientist and a researcher at the Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics (LASP) at the University of Colorado in Boulder. While the TIM lumps all wavelengths -- including infrared, visible, and ultraviolet light -- into one overall measurement, the SIM isolates and monitors specific portions of the spectrum.

Notably, this makes SIM the first space-based instrument capable of continuously monitoring the visible and near-infrared portion, parts of the spectrum that are particularly important for the climate. SIM also offers the most comprehensive view of the individual components that make up the sun's total solar irradiance to date.

Some of the variations that SIM has measured in the last few years do not mesh with what most scientists expected. Climatologists have generally thought that the various part of the spectrum would vary in lockstep with changes in total solar irradiance.

However, SIM suggests that ultraviolet irradiance fell far more than expected between 2004 and 2007 -- by ten times as much as the total irradiance did -- while irradiance in certain visible and infrared wavelengths surprisingly increased, even as solar activity wound down overall.

The steep decrease in the ultraviolet, coupled with the increase in the visible and infrared, does even out to about the same total irradiance change as measured by the TIM during that period, according to the SIM measurements.

The stratosphere absorbs most of the shorter wavelengths of ultraviolet light, but some of the longest ultraviolet rays (UV-A), as well as much of the visible and infrared portions of the spectrum, directly heat Earth's lower atmosphere and can have a significant impact on the climate..."

In short, old instruments weren't able to separate the light spectrum, newer ones can.

They're seeing variations in the UV that weren't seen or measured before.

So there may very well may be some "unknown and mysterious cycles" that we're just beginning to see.
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


wow.. that would be crazy..


I suspect the downslope winds off the southern Appalachians will dry out a lot of that precipitation over north Florida, GA and SC.
Quoting DoverWxwatchter:


I suspect the downslope winds off the southern Appalachians will dry out a lot of that precipitation over north Florida, GA and SC.


We will c.. that one was just a median tho.. some more models should be coming soon.. Im seein if Euro stays consistent or not..
That graphic implies record snows across far south GA and north Florida. Records are meant to be broken, but I'm always doubtful about models forecasting record events 3 days out.

But it is a cool setup. Be wild if the next runs made it colder and the precip heavier!
Quoting xcool:
brb


What up Bro!!
It portrays a tremendous and dangerous winter storm developing off the coast of the Carolinas on Sunday morning then rapidly intensifying. By Monday morning, the storm is a monster located just off the coast of the Virginia and Maryland.

Last year, enough was enough.
Does anyone know if there was a comparison that this current storm that hit Cali that set some records now did some similar stuff back in '93?? Some reason I think has some similarity but not saying it will happen.. Just to keep in mind..
I don't remember a storm in Cali before the superstorm.

The 1993 setup was different, a very strong short wave came in from Mexico across the Gulf, another wave dropped down from the north and phased with it as it entered the southeast, and a third wave phased and kept it intensifying up the mid-Atlantic.

Looking back at LAX the week before the 1993 superstorm, there was some light rain but no storm.

517 really it just doesn't matter - Until someone can present a case that there was a increase in solar flux that caused the increase in warming - its irrelevant what happened before. right? logically it doesn't work.
Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
I don't remember a storm in Cali before the superstorm.

The 1993 setup was different, a very strong short wave came in from Mexico across the Gulf, another wave dropped down from the north and phased with it as it entered the southeast, and a third wave phased and kept it intensifying up the mid-Atlantic.

Looking back at LAX the week before the 1993 superstorm, there was some light rain but no storm.


Okay.. thx for the info.. maybe i picked the wrong year.. lol
Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
Hmmmm. San Diego was considerably wetter that week in 1993.



Yes it was - I was wondering about that. look at the month - is that right?!?
pull up the 8-14 maps

you need the plug in on the top left.
It moved fast - crossed the gom in a day.
Well as the models attend to be weak for now.. Get a better idea if this going to be something or just an average storm system.. but for now, Im going to try to sleep.. Everyone have a goodnight..
I'm not seeing any storms in California. Thanks for the map link JFLORIDA I forgot about that.

I'm curious how accurate those San Diego precip readings are. I'm going to look through the San Deigo wx office site and see if I can find out anything.
Well the San Diego office linked me to the western regional climate center. And it says that San Diego's precipitation was 1.22" in March 1993. They don't give daily totals.

And no March except for an unofficial 1867 report of 7.88" has had over 7" of rain in San Diego.
goodnight.
537. xcool
traumaboyy hey
538. xcool
good nigth all
Oh. Forgot to link the data on San Diego from the Western Regional Climate Center. So here it is. At about 2/3rds of the way down on the left, click on "monthly totals" under the Precipitation header.
It is incredibly difficult to find complete hurricane tracking maps for basins -- wu's atlantic one is the only one that I found that was satisfactory for any of the six basins.
I wonder if the UK met office has good records for Indian Ocean cyclones. Their rule in India and Mauritius might have interested someone enough to make charts and records.

For the Pacific, before satellites I bet we missed so much that those records would be pretty well meaningless.
Here is the main NOAA Library page:


nevermind
ehh lets err on the side of caution until I figure that out.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
311 AM EST THU DEC 23 2010

UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL REVOLVE AROUND THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN
BEING THE SLOWEST AND FURTHEST WEST (VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST) AS IT
TRACKS THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BEFORE
BOMBING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SUNDAY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT
IN A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.
HOWEVER...THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS OF THE GFS/GEM MODELS HAVE PLACED
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW FURTHER OFFSHORE...RESULTING IN LESS IN
THE WAY OF QPF AMOUNTS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LATEST RUN OF
THE ECMWF (23/00Z) HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AND THIS TREND
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS.

NEVERTHELESS...MOST OF THE PRECIP IS STILL EXPECTED LATE CHRISTMAS
DAY/NIGHT...BUT WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN FOR THE NORTHWEST
EARLY SATURDAY DUE TO THE TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. WILL THEN GRADUALLY
TREND POPS OUT OF THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PREDOMINANT P-TYPE NOMOGRAM PLOTS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE ALL SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL NC...WITH ONLY A SMALL
WINDOW OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AT THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIP. THEREFORE...THE GREATEST FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE
JUST HOW MUCH SNOW WE WILL RECEIVE...AS THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL OF
BECOMING A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT.

546. IKE
Defuniak Springs,FL...updated forecast....

Saturday Night
Colder. Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain and snow. Lows around 30. No snow accumulation.
The end of December heat continues; HAMweather says there have been no record daily low or low maximum temperatures set or tied in the CONUS in the past 24 hours, while 148 record highs or high minimums were set or tied in the same time frame.

--Over the past two days, there have been no record lows and just two record low maximums set or tied, while there have been 380 record high or high minimums set or tied.

--Over the past three days, record highs/high maximums have outnumbered record lows/low minimums 546 to 6.

--Over the past four days, record highs/high maximums have outnumbered record lows/low minimums 669 to 16.

--Finally, over the past five days, record highs/high maximums have outnumbered record lows/low minimums 724 to 22.

IOW, reflective of the past year as a whole, this third week of December has been lopsidedly warm across the CONUS. (For the year, record highs have outnumbered record lows somewhere in the neighborhood of 3.2-to-1) NOTE: I don't have easy access to which of the numerous temperature records were new and which were ties with existing records, but that doesn't change the fact that it's been anything but unseasonably cold in most areas.
548. IKE
From Mobile,AL. discussion....for Saturday....

DURING THE AFTN...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP AS THE LOW OFF
THE COAST MOVES EASTWARD AND PULLS COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD. THIS IS WHEN
THINGS LOOK TO BECOME MORE INTERESTING OVER THE INTERIOR. ALONG AND NORTH OF
A LINE FROM GREENVILLE AL TO WAYNESBORO MS...FORECAST DEEP LAYER
THERMAL PROFILES WILL MAINTAIN GOOD MOISTURE DEPTH WHILE COOLING TO
BLO FREEZING JUST OFF THE SURFACE BY EVENING. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR
SOME SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN THERE...LATER IN THE DAY. COULD
VERY WELL BEGIN TO SEE SOME DUSTING ON GRASSY SURFACES AND EXPOSED
OBJECTS IN SOME AREAS BRINGING A RARE WHITE CHRISTMAS FOR THE DEEP
SOUTH.
ELSEWHERE...A COLD RAIN IS FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY. ALTHOUGH
THE NORTHERN GULF LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY OUT BY
EVENING...RESIDUAL WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MOVES ACROSS AS THE DEEP
LAYER COLD AIR SURGES SOUTHWARD. THIS RESULTS IN A SWITCH OVER TO
SNOW OVER THE INTERIOR OF SW AL AND POTENTIALLY PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN ZONES OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES MAINLY IN THE EVENING BEFORE
MOISTURE SHUTS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SNOW POTENTIAL ENDS.
AS
TEMPERATURES FALL TO BELOW FREEZING SUN AM...THERE IS CONCERN THAT
LINGERING MOISTURE ON ROADS WILL FREEZE RESULTING IN THE FORMATION OF
BLACK ICE AND AN INCREASED DRIVING HAZARD FOR MANY AREAS. STAY TUNED.

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY...CHILLY DAYS AND COLD NIGHTS WILL PERSIST INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS AXIS OF STRONG ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS AND MOVES ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH. /10

Morning Ike, You better take pictures for the blog.
550. IKE
Quoting severstorm:
Morning Ike, You better take pictures for the blog.


If it does and I'm awake, I will. I wouldn't bet my paycheck on it happening(snowing).
hope you do.
Special Weather Statement
Statement as of 3:00 AM EST on December 23, 2010


... Wintry precipitation still possible from Christmas day through
Sunday morning for north and central Georgia...

A strong storm system currently moving across the Desert
Southwest... will move into the Southern Plains Friday and across
the deep south Saturday and Saturday night. This storm system will
bring a chance of wintry precipitation to much of north and
central Georgia over the Christmas weekend.

At this time computer models are indicating that the most likely
Route of the surface low will be across south Georgia on Christmas
day and up the East Coast on Sunday. This will begin spreading
moisture into the state beginning late Friday night and continue
through Sunday morning. The precipitation will begin as snow
across extreme north Georgia late Friday night and continue across
north Georgia through Sunday morning. From this area southward to
central Georgia the precipitation will begin as rain... and
through the course of Christmas day... the rain will become mixed
with... and then eventually switch over to snow by Saturday
evening.

As for accumulations... the highest amounts will be in the north
Georgia mountains where 2 to 4 inches could fall by Sunday
morning. From this area... southward to the Atlanta and Athens
area... between 1 and 3 inches of snow could fall. South of Atlanta
and Athens... an inch or less is possible.

There is still a lot of uncertainty with the projected path... and
any deviation to the north or south could mean the difference
between rain or snow... as well as total amounts.

Anyone planning travel across north and central Georgia or the
southeast United States over the Christmas weekend should keep
abreast to the latest forecast on this developing winter storm
system.


Quoting IKE:


If it does and I'm awake, I will. I wouldn't bet my paycheck on it happening(snowing).


Morning Ike!!

Merry Christmas!!
554. IKE
Quoting traumaboyy:


Morning Ike!!

Merry Christmas!!


Merry Christmas to you.

41.7 my morning low....so far.
Quoting IKE:


Merry Christmas to you.

41.7 my morning low....so far.


You win 42.9 here!!

Wind is really whippin though!
556. IKE
Quoting traumaboyy:


You win 42.9 here!!

Wind is really whippin though!


Wind almost calm here. Temp @ 40.8. Sunrise in about 8 minutes.
Quoting Neapolitan:
The end of December heat continues; HAMweather says there have been no record daily low or low maximum temperatures set or tied in the CONUS in the past 24 hours, while 148 record highs or high minimums were set or tied in the same time frame.

--Over the past two days, there have been no record lows and just two record low maximums set or tied, while there have been 380 record high or high minimums set or tied.

--Over the past three days, record highs/high maximums have outnumbered record lows/low minimums 546 to 6.

--Over the past four days, record highs/high maximums have outnumbered record lows/low minimums 669 to 16.

--Finally, over the past five days, record highs/high maximums have outnumbered record lows/low minimums 724 to 22.

IOW, reflective of the past year as a whole, this third week of December has been lopsidedly warm across the CONUS. (For the year, record highs have outnumbered record lows somewhere in the neighborhood of 3.2-to-1) NOTE: I don't have easy access to which of the numerous temperature records were new and which were ties with existing records, but that doesn't change the fact that it's been anything but unseasonably cold in most areas.


Thank you.
Complete Update






Quoting traumaboyy:


You win 42.9 here!!

Wind is really whippin though!

In Seoul it's -7C (19.4F); really cold
I just don't understand the sunrise?
I have traveled the same road same time, for 30 years, lately I've noticed that the morning sky is getting lighter earlier this year than in previous years, yeah I know when the sunrise times are for the same time as previous years, but this seems strange. I usually get home from my work at 7:30 and it's dark, this usually last till around January 15th or so, will now it's light at 7:20 and fully light at 7:40A.
sunrise for this area is at 8:03 this continues till around the first of the year, then goes 30 seconds for a week or so then around the second week of January it goes to one minute per day of extended light.
I'm not crazy, it's getting light earlier. Am I the only one who notices this phenomenon.
I haven't paid attention to the sunset, but I'm going to starting tonight.
Feel free to comment on this crazy phenomenon.
561. IKE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
557 AM CST THU DEC 23 2010

ALZ011>015-017>050-232200-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-
TALLADEGA-CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-
COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-
MONTGOMERY-MACON-BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAMILTON...SULLIGENT...VERNON...
FAYETTE...DOUBLE SPRINGS...JASPER...ONEONTA...GADSDEN...
ANNISTON...CENTRE...HEFLIN...CARROLLTON...TUSCALOOSA...
BIRMINGHAM...HOOVER...COLUMBIANA...PELHAM...ALABASTER...
PELL CITY...MOODY...TALLADEGA...SYLACAUGA...ASHLAND...ROANOKE...
LIVINGSTON...EUTAW...GREENSBORO...MOUNDVILLE...MARION...
CENTREVILLE...CLANTON...ROCKFORD...ALEXANDER CITY...DADEVILLE...
VALLEY...LANETT...LAFAYETTE...DEMOPOLIS...LINDEN...SELMA...
PRATTVILLE...FORT DEPOSIT...HAYNEVILLE...WETUMPKA...TALLASSEE...
MONTGOMERY...TUSKEGEE...UNION SPRINGS...AUBURN...OPELIKA...
PHENIX CITY...TROY...EUFAULA
557 AM CST THU DEC 23 2010

...SNOW POSSIBLE BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND CHRISTMAS NIGHT...

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE GULF
COAST OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS...BRINGING THE THREAT OF SNOW TO
MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...GENERALLY BETWEEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
MIDNIGHT SUNDAY.

CONFIDENCE HAS STEADILY INCREASED THAT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
WILL EXPERIENCE MEASURABLE SNOWFALL AT SOME POINT DURING THIS
WINTER WEATHER EVENT. THE PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS RAIN LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW BY CHRISTMAS DAY AND
EVENING. AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN WITH THE SYSTEM...THE EXPECTED
CHANGEOVER WILL BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST BEFORE SUNRISE AND STEADILY
MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...CHANGING OVER TO SNOW IN THE
SOUTHEAST CLOSER TO SUNSET.

BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST INFORMATION...MANY AREAS WILL SEE
ANYWHERE FROM A DUSTING TO PERHAPS TWO INCHES OF SNOW ON CHRISTMAS
DAY. HOWEVER...MANY UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO THIS
FORECAST...AND CERTAINLY THE MOISTURE AMOUNTS...TIMING AND
PLACEMENT...AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM ARE STILL LARGE AND LOOMING
QUESTIONS. THESE UNCERTAINTIES AND SMALLER SCALE FEATURES WILL
DIRECTLY AFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. AS NEW
INFORMATION IS INTRODUCED...THE FORECAST WILL CHANGE AND SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE UPDATED.

$$

Quoting Neapolitan:
The end of December heat continues; HAMweather says there have been no record daily low or low maximum temperatures set or tied in the CONUS in the past 24 hours, while 148 record highs or high minimums were set or tied in the same time frame.

--Over the past two days, there have been no record lows and just two record low maximums set or tied, while there have been 380 record high or high minimums set or tied.

--Over the past three days, record highs/high maximums have outnumbered record lows/low minimums 546 to 6.

--Over the past four days, record highs/high maximums have outnumbered record lows/low minimums 669 to 16.

--Finally, over the past five days, record highs/high maximums have outnumbered record lows/low minimums 724 to 22.

IOW, reflective of the past year as a whole, this third week of December has been lopsidedly warm across the CONUS. (For the year, record highs have outnumbered record lows somewhere in the neighborhood of 3.2-to-1) NOTE: I don't have easy access to which of the numerous temperature records were new and which were ties with existing records, but that doesn't change the fact that it's been anything but unseasonably cold in most areas.

Very interesting Neapolitan. Very interesting. Sure glad were not getting all that record cold and snow they have been having in Europe.
Good Morning... and Merry Christmas(a little ahead but that's OK).
Quoting WxLogic:
Good Morning... and Merry Christmas(a little ahead but that's OK).

Nowadays, never too early. Merry Christmas to you as well.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
411 AM EST THU DEC 23 2010

NCZ097-100-101-SCZ034-046-240915-
PENDER-BRUNSWICK-NEW HANOVER-HORRY-GEORGETOWN-
411 AM EST THU DEC 23 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WATER LEVELS WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN ZERO AND MINUS 1 FT MLLW
AROUND THE TIMES OF LOW TIDE. LOW TIDE IS AROUND 3 PM AND 3 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A WIND DRIVEN RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND WILL
LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE AS LOW PRESSURE TURNS UP THE COAST FROM
THE GULF COAST AND INTENSIFIES. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW...RATE OF
INTENSIFICATION AND SPEED OF MOVEMENT WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE
HOW MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATES. PLEASE STAY IN TOUCH WITH THE LATEST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS. WINTER STORM WATCHES AND
WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED SHOULD CONFIDENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORM INCREASE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

$$
RJD
NWS of Peachtree City is going with a GFS/NAM blend.. No wonder why they think snowfall totals will be so low.
Hey long time no see RTLSNK, fingers crossed here!
Have a great Christmas everyone

KEY WEST IS ON PACE TO HAVE ITS COLDEST DECEMBER ON RECORD

THUS FAR DURING THE MONTH OF DECEMBER...THE DAILY MEAN TEMPERATURE
AT KEY WEST HAS BEEN BELOW NORMAL EVERY SINGLE DAY. AT
MARATHON...THE DAILY MEAN TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN BELOW NORMAL EVER
SINCE DECEMBER 2ND. THE MEAN TEMPERATURE AT MARATHON ON DECEMBER 1ST
EQUALED THE AVERAGE OF 73 DEGREES FOR THE DATE. THROUGH DECEMBER
22ND...THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH AT KEY WEST IS 63.2
DEGREES...OR 9.2 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AT MARATHON...THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH IS 61.3 DEGREES...OR 10.3 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. KEY WEST IS ON PACE TO HAVE ITS COLDEST DECEMBER ON RECORD
DATING BACK TO 1873. THE COLDEST DECEMBER MEAN TEMPERATURE AT KEY
WEST IS 65.1 DEGREES...SET IN DECEMBER 1885.
&&
nature seems to find a pattern if this low dumps big time snow in the ne looks for more storms of a simliar path in jan and feb. happy holidays
Looks like Huge Hail hit South Africa..

Officials in various Eastern Cape municipalities were on Thursday taking stock of how many people had been displaced and what property had been damaged in a fierce hail storm which hit the area on Wednesday, police said. In the Mthatha region more than 100 houses and 200 vehicles were damaged in the storm. "In Idutywa municipal buildings, police offices and about 26 police vehicles were damaged in the storm," Captain Lingisile Magama said. "It is not yet confirmed whether anyone died or was injured in the incident," he said. Villages including Qora, Ngxakaxa, Govan Mbeki township, Old Idutywa, Colosa, Chizele, Nyawra and Ludondolo were hit by the storm. Four women were injured and 18 RDP houses were damaged in Mthatha. Slovo Park, Chris Hani Park and Mandela Park were also hard hit. "Affected residents were accommodated by their neighbours," Captain Zamukulungisa Jozana said. More than 100 homes in Bityi were destroyed and police and government officials would visit affected areas to assess the damage.
The series of storms that dumped rain on Southern California for nearly a week gave the region one final lashing on Wednesday, leaving homes and cars awash in mud, pushing hillsides onto highways, flooding urban streets and threatening hundreds of homes. Just before nightfall, residents of some 200 homes on a bluff in Highland, about 65 miles east of Los Angeles, were urged to evacuate. Some 40 homes were earlier evacuated there when two creeks overflowed, swamping as many as 20 homes in up to 3 feet of mud. "This mud flow moved cars, picked them up, stood them up on their nose at 45-degree angles, buried them," said Bill Peters, a spokesman for the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. Areas just south of Los Angeles — including a tony beach town that saw "rivers coming through" and its main beach washed away — were also hard hit before the rain tapered off Wednesday afternoon. Dozens of homes were hit by mud, at least two people were killed in storm-related car accidents, more evacuations were ordered and dramatic rescues unfolded — one involved a man who called from his cell phone as his car filled with water. Another saw a man and his sons rescue three women and two children in a pickup truck surrounded by rising water. Laguna Beach, where homes top $1 million, saw extensive damage as did other communities in Orange County, which also saw widespread road closures. In nearby San Juan Capistrano, some 400 people were urged to evacuate around midday after floodwaters destroyed part of a flood channel. Laguna Beach residents were cleaning up after torrents gushed through in the pre-dawn hours.

"There are rivers coming through town, and they’ve washed out the north end of our beach," Laguna Beach resident Jeff Grubert told the Los Angeles Times early Wednesday. Axl Dominguez awoke early Wednesday to a bumping sound and looked out the window to a scary sight: Plastic trashcans floating down the flooded Laguna Beach street. And then the water came rushing into his house. "We didn't have time to get anything. It happened really fast," the 15-year-old said, shivering in shorts, a mud-splashed sweat shirt and bare feet as he waited to go with his family to an evacuation center. "Water started coming in from all the walls. Then the wall fell and we got out through the window." At one point, the entire downtown area was under 3 to 4 feet of water, police Lt. Jason Kravetz told NBC News, and about 10 mudslides had been reported. A swift water rescue team saved some 20 to 25 people from their homes in the Laguna Canyon area, Kravetz added. Dozens of homes were damaged or destroyed in the canyon when mud flows hit around 3 a.m. Some residents said neighbors had to jump out of windows to escape. Canyon resident Matthew Pike told the Times that he was awakened at 3 a.m. by screaming.

"I grabbed a flashlight and scanned the street and discovered three women and two children in the back of a pickup truck surrounded by rising flood waters," he said. "They were screaming and crying, 'Help us. Please help us.'" Pike said he and two sons waded across the water barefoot as debris hit them. "We tied a garden hose to a pillar of my house and attached it to a fence post across the street, then got them across one at a time," Pike said. A driver just inland was rescued after veering into a flood-control channel, the Times reported. He called 911 as his car filled with water and minutes later rescue crews reached him and pulled him out safely. A mudslide in Silverado Canyon, Orange County, also led to local residents being evacuated, fire Capt. Greg McKeown told NBC News. In Silverado Canyon, Mary Adams and her husband got up in the middle of the night to check for mudslide danger as rains pounded the hill above them. They had just crawled back into bed at 3:30 a.m. when they heard a low, dull roar and then echoing boom of boulders tumbling into a creek. Adams, 54, jumped from bed to see a small river of mud, rocks and debris sweep past her side door, whisking the couple's travel trailer 100 feet down the hill and filling their garage and succulent garden with thick ooze.

photos here
573. IKE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
848 AM CST THU DEC 23 2010

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-241500-
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-BENTON-
HOUSTON-HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-
SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-
WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-
CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY-VAN BUREN-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-
GILES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CLARKSVILLE...SPRINGFIELD...
GALLATIN...LAFAYETTE...CELINA...BYRDSTOWN...CAMDEN...ERIN...
WAVERLY...DICKSON...ASHLAND CITY...NASHVILLE...LEBANON...
MOUNT JULIET...HARTSVILLE...CARTHAGE...GAINESBORO...COOKEVILLE...
LIVINGSTON...JAMESTOWN...LOBELVILLE...CENTERVILLE...HOHENWALD...
FRANKLIN...BRENTWOOD...COLUMBIA...LEWISBURG...MURFREESBORO...
WOODBURY...SMITHVILLE...SPARTA...CROSSVILLE...SHELBYVILLE...
TULLAHOMA...MANCHESTER...MCMINNVILLE...ALTAMONT...SPENCER...
WAYNESBORO...LAWRENCEBURG...PULASKI
848 AM CST THU DEC 23 2010

...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL ON CHRISTMAS IN
17 YEARS...

A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY BEFORE HEADING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES THIS WEEKEND INCLUDING MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS
COLDER AIR SINKS SOUTHWARD. A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND RAIN IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS TIME...AN ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH UP TO TWO
INCHES OVER MOST PARTS OF THE MID STATE AND UP TO THREE INCHES
ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU BY LATE SUNDAY. SOME...UNCERTAINITY
REMAINS IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE STORM SYSTEM AND SNOW
AMOUNTS.

PEOPLE PLANNING TRAVEL ON CHRISTMAS EVE OR CHRISTMAS DAY...MAY
WANT TO CONSIDER TRAVELING EARLIER...PERHAPS THURSDAY OR FRIDAY
AS IT APPEARS THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE AS EARLY AS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS ROAD CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE QUICKLY ONCE THE SNOW BEGINS.

THERE HAVE BEEN ONLY NINE CHRISTMASES WITH MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OF
SNOW SINCE SNOWFALL RECORD KEEPING BEGAN IN NASHVILLE BACK IN THE
WINTER OF 1884 AND 1885. THE LAST TIME MEASURABLE SNOW FELL ON
CHRISTMAS DAY IN NASHVILLE WAS IN 1993 WHEN THREE TENTHS OF AN
INCH WAS MEASURED. TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOW FELL ON CHRISTMAS IN
2002. STATISTICALLY THERE IS ONLY A 7 PERCENT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
SNOW ON ANY GIVEN CHRISTMAS. THE MOST SNOW EVER TO FALL ON
CHRISTMAS IN NASHVILLE IS 2.7 INCHES IN 1969.

$$
BOYD

Looks like the models are backing off on the storm. But....
Special Weather Statement
FREEZE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
355 AM EST THU DEC 23 2010

FLZ063-066-067-070-071-073-241000-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-
INLAND MIAMI DADE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PALMDALE...MOORE HAVEN...CLEWISTON...
LA BELLE...BIG CYPRESS SEMINOLE RESERVATION...PAHOKEE...
SOUTH BAY...BELLE GLADE...WELLINGTON...LION COUNTRY SAFARI...
SOUTH COUNTY REGIONAL PARK...IMMOKALEE...
MICCOSUKEE INDIAN RESERVATION...MARKHAM PARK...HOMESTEAD...
FLORIDA CITY...REDLAND...MICCOSUKEE RESORT...KENDALE LAKES...
WEST KENDALL...COUNTRY WALK...SHARK VALLEY
355 AM EST THU DEC 23 2010

...ANOTHER FREEZE POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY
NEXT WEEK...

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON
SUNDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZE ACROSS
THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION MONDAY MORNING...THEN ACROSS A LARGER
PORTION OF INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY MORNING.

THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE FINE TUNED OVER THE UPCOMING
DAYS...SO STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES ON THIS COLD WAVE EXPECTED.

$$

GREGORIA

SQUAWK!!!!
Quoting FLPandhandleJG:


Okay.. thx for the info.. maybe i picked the wrong year.. lol


I don't know whether it was a superstorm but I do know in Feb of 1992 it rained and rained and rained and RAINED. I was pregnant with my first and had to have a friend drive us to the hospital to deliver because roads were flooding and we couldn't get there with our car.
SAN JUAN CAPISTRANO, Calif. (KABC) --

Evacuations have lifted in San Juan Capistrano, but there is a still a lot of cleanup work ahead. Work crews have been out along San Juan Creek all night, trying to shore up the banks that collapsed in Wednesday's rain.


At Trabuco Creek, much of the retaining wall is gone, partly due to busted pipes. Crews have been using bulldozers to build a temporary retaining wall using rocks and boulders.

Chunks of earth had broken away on Wednesday from the side of Trabuco Creek after an irrigation pipe burst. The situation got so bad that 75 businesses and 400 families were asked to leave.

Silverado Canyon saw what is usually a gentle creek turn into miles of roaring rapids, but many residents chose to ignore evacuation orders. Water and debris buried cars and parts of homes, but residents said they still love the area.

"We all know where we're living and what it's going to be so unfortunately, this is it," said Sue Caple of Silverado Canyon.

In Rancho Santa Margarita's Dove Canyon, water rushed into the gated community, engulfing cars up to the windows in mud. At least five homes were red-tagged.

21 years ago South Louisiana and Miss were in the grips of a Arctic Blue Norther that shattered record Lows.

Note the Record Lows in yellow


Quoting Patrap:
21 years ago South Louisiana and Miss were in the grips of a Arctic Blue Norther that shattered record Lows.

Note the Record Lows in yellow


WDSU 6 special report on the freeze. Link
HIGHLAND, Calif. (KABC) -- The destructive storm that ripped through Southern California has claimed a life.


The Riverside county coroner's office said a Menifee woman died after her car was swept away.

It happened Wednesday at Goetz Road and Railroad Canyon Road in the Canyon Lake area.

The coroner's office said 39-year-old Angela Marie Wright drove through the flooded intersection and was swept into a flooded wash.

Meantime, 200 homes have been evacuated in Highland after a mudslide buried cars and destroyed homes.

Geologists will be checking for more erosion problems in the area.

Crews worked overnight to try to clear all the mud and debris with skip loaders and bulldozers. Flood-control workers were digging out a channel early Thursday morning to remove all the mud.

Rain brought in about four feet of mud, which buried homes and cars in East Highland. An evacuation order remained in effect Thursday morning for the area because of an unstable hillside that crews were still trying to shore up.

One family became stuck when they tried to escape with their two children. Luckily, some friends helped the family escape to safety.

"The mud was so high. I ended up having to take my shoes off because I couldn't walk," said Kelvin Knight, who lost his home.


"Everything is gone. I know my 12-year-old son, of course being 12, he's like, 'It's Christmas, mom.' It's just a bad time," said Lorain Knight.

In San Bernarndino, at least 30 homes were also damaged by mudslides.

Meanwhile, in the High Desert, residents were also dealing with heavy rain that dumped four to eight inches in the area. The Mojave River, which normally runs underground, was at flood stage at 17 feet.

Several homes there were damaged by the flood, and residents are hoping for the water to dry out so they can get back into their homes.

Twas a frigid Xmas in 89 fer sure.

Thanx for the vid Tampa, Margaret Orr still the Met at WDSU
Magnitude 5.4 - PAGAN REGION, NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS
2010 December 23 16:30:54 UTC

Magnitude 5.7 - FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
2010 December 23 16:28:14 UTC

Magnitude 5.6 - VANUATU
2010 December 23 16:28:10 UTC
hey Keeper...
hello amy
having a lunch here checkin in on info
Orcasystems post # 569. The link shows above average temperatures in the MDR. We may have another 20 named systems in 2011 considering warm SSTs & no El Nino. How much longer can our luck go with no major landfalling hurricanes in the U.S. ?
Euro about to run. May we all pray.. for the snow!
NEW BLOG ENTRY

(Thought I'd bring it up since the new entry is 45 minutes old but people are still posting here.)