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Atmospheric CO2 Leaps into Uncharted Territory: 408 ppm

By: Bob Henson 5:08 PM GMT on April 21, 2016

Even as it fades, the 2015-16 El Niño has given a big boost to the annual spring peak of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Preliminary CO2 data from Mauna Loa, Hawaii, for the week ending April 16 showed a concentration of 408.69 parts per million (ppm), according to NOAA. The weekly value analyzed by NOAA topped 405 ppm for the first time on March 26 (405.62 ppm), which was itself surpassed by 406.57 ppm on April 9. The one-day average concentration hit an eye-opening peak of 409.44 on April 9. That’s close to 4 ppm above any value recorded on Mauna Loa prior to this year.

“We are now witnessing the fastest growth rates of the entire record of CO2 measurements. This record-breaking growth is an expected consequence of the near record-breaking fossil fuel usage combined with the largest El Niño event in several decades.” said Ralph Keeling (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) in a Keeling Curve blog post on Wednesday. Keeling’s father, Charles David Keeling, launched the regular CO2 measurements at Mauna Loa in 1958. NOAA and Scripps now collaborate on the sampling, with slight differences in how they analyze and report the data. Scripps reported a daily value of 407.80 ppm on April 18 (see Figure 2).



Figure 1. A year’s worth of carbon dioxide concentrations measured at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, by NOAA from April 2015 through mid-April 2016. Daily averages are shown as black dots, and weekly averages as red lines. The labeled blue lines show monthly averages. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL Global Monitoring Division.


Carbon dioxide has been accumulating at an unsettling pace for some time now. Preliminary data for last year (2015) showed the biggest annual increase in CO2 concentrations of any year on record: 3.05 ppm. It was also the fourth consecutive year that CO2 levels increased by at least 2 ppm. This occurred for the first time in 1977 (just for that year) and was a rare event until the 2000s. From February 2015 to February 2016, the year-over-year increase in monthly values was 3.40 ppm, according to NOAA.

“Carbon dioxide levels are increasing faster than they have in hundreds of thousands of years,” said NOAA’s Pieter Tans in a March statement. “It’s explosive compared to natural processes.”


Figure 2. Two longer-term perspectives on CO2: the increase since 1958 measured at Mauna Loa (left), and the ups and downs produced by ice-age cycles over the last 800,000 years, as retrieved from polar ice cores. The increase of more than 120 parts per million since the mid-1800s (vertical line at far right of right-hand image) is larger than the typical difference between the frigid depths of ice ages (the dips in the right-hand image) and the relatively mild interglacial periods. Predictable variations in Earth’s orbit help trigger the onset and decline of ice ages. Image credit: Scripps Institution of Oceanography.


Fossil fuels, El Niño, and a touch of variability
The past month’s surge is not unexpected, but its strength is noteworthy. As fossil fuel burning pumps CO2 into the atmosphere, new highs in concentration have been achieved every spring at Mauna Loa since records began in 1958. The annual peaks and dips shown in the sawtoothed pattern in Figure 2 are a result of the seasonal cycle of vegetation growth in the Northern Hemisphere, which holds most of the world’s land areas. CO2 values normally top out in the second quarter of the year, as warming soils release CO2 but just before northern vegetation growth begins to take off. The global CO2 concentration then dips later in the year, as the increasingly lush summer vegetation absorbs huge amounts of CO2. These natural ups and downs occur on top of the inexorable year-by-year increase produced by human activity.

The tendency of a strong El Niño to foster drought and fire across much of the tropics cuts back on the ability of global vegetation to absorb CO2. This means that global CO2 levels tend to be higher during El Niño than they’d otherwise be (and lower during La Niña). The largest one-year jump in CO2 values in the Scripps data from Mauna Loa was the 3.7 ppm observed in 1998, at the tail end of our last “super” El Niño event.

Why such a spike this past month?
It’s not clear exactly what has led to such a big surge in CO2 concentrations at Mauna Loa during the past month. Industrial emissions don’t change quickly enough on a large enough scale to produce this big a spike. According to Keeling, “the levels last week were a bit higher, maybe by a part per million or two, than I would have projected even taking El Niño into account. I’m frankly not sure what is causing this, but I would not expect it reflects anything other than an unusual blob of air that temporarily settled over the central Pacific.”

A number of other sites around the globe also monitor CO2, with their measurements collated through a Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network coordinated by NOAA. Readings from these sites can be several parts per million higher than those measured atop Mauna Loa, depending on local vegetation and circulation and each site’s proximity to major population centers. At the Harvard Forest site in central Massachusetts, daily CO2 concentrations have been hovering around 408-410 ppm over the last several weeks. This is “not particularly remarkable given the year and season,” said Harvard’s Steven Wofsy in an email.


Figure 3. Daily measurements of carbon dioxide collected atop Niwot Ridge, Colorado. The nighttime readings (red dots) typically run higher than daytime readings (green dots) due to the lack of photosynthesis at night. The Niwot Ridge values run slightly higher than the readings collected at the Mauna Loa site (dark line), which is located many hundreds of miles from any large land masses. Image credit: Courtesy Britton Stephens, NCAR.


Figure 4. Researchers work on a station near Niwot Ridge, Colorado, just west of Boulder, where carbon dioxide and other gases have been measured weekly for some 40 years. Image credit: UCAR/NCAR.


Another CO2 expert, Britton Stephens (National Center for Atmospheric Research), found little evidence of anything too dramatic in the last few weeks of data from a group of three dispersed stations in the U.S. West called Rocky RACCOON (Regional Atmospheric Continuous CO2 Network in the Rocky Mountains). “On that short time scale, nothing jumps out as unusual,” said Stephens. The CO2 values measured at several Colorado and Utah sites did show an uptick of several ppm from about April 14 to April 19, roughly a week after the highest values in Mauna Loa. According to Stephens, it’s possible that a large-scale “blob” of CO2 could have translated east from Hawaii to the central Rockies in that timespan.

The long-term outlook: unchanged
For those of us who have watched CO2 rise for years--the weekly values first passed 400 ppm in 2013--it is more than a bit unnerving to see daily and weekly numbers at Mauna Loa approaching the 410 ppm threshold. Some relief will come later this year, as the typical midyear dip begins. And the expected La Niña event may help tamp down the year-over-year increase in concentrations going into 2017.

Another bright spot: the Paris Agreement on Climate Change will become available for global leaders to sign on Friday (Earth Day). Leaders from 155 nations, including the U.S. and China, have signaled their intent to sign on the first day. That would be a record for any international agreement, and not a moment too soon. Major emission cuts in China may have already led to a decline in global emissions for 2015 (the data aren’t out yet), yet even the ambitious cuts in the voluntary national pledges of the Paris Agreement would not be enough in themselves to stave off the long-feared 2°C in global warming over pre-industrial levels.

That challenge comes into focus at the national level with the EPA’s 2014 inventory of U.S. emissions, released last week. It showed that total U.S. greenhouse emissions climbed 1.0% in 2014 following a 2.8% increase in 2013. Making matters worse, the EPA made a substantial upward revision to its estimates of U.S. methane emissions over the last few years, because research now shows that oil and gas operations were releasing significantly more methane than previously thought. Clearly, the substantial dip in U.S. emissions achieved during the late 2000s and early 2010s--variously attributed to high fuel prices, increased efficiency measures, and the transition from coal to natural gas--has ground to a halt. From this point on, each year in which U.S. emissions are climbing will make it that much harder for the nation to meet its Paris pledge: cutting U.S. emissions by 26-28% in 2025 compared to 2005 levels.


Figure 5. Probability of severe weather for Tuesday, April 26, 2016, as issued by NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center on Thursday, April 21. It's quite unusual to have probabilities as high as 30% outlined this far in advance of a severe weather threat. Image credit: NOAA/NWS/SPC.

Major severe weather threat taking shape for next week
We're monitoring the potential for one or more significant rounds of severe weather next week, most likely focused in southern Kansas, Oklahoma, and northern Texas. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is already highlighting the risk of severe weather on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. The situation on Tuesday looks especially serious, as models are consistently agreeing that very rich low-level moisture and warm surface air will be juxtaposed with a powerful upper-level storm sweeping into the Great Plains from the Pacific. SPC began highlighting the risk of tornadoes on Tuesday in its Day 7 outlook issued on Wednesday--a very unusual step for SPC to take this far ahead of an event. The tornado threat is again mentioned in today’s Day 6 outlook, and the probabilities of severe weather have been raised (Figure 5], a sign of increasing forecaster confidence. Tuesday happens to be the 25th anniversary of the destructive central U.S. outbreak of April 26, 1991, which produced several violent tornadoes that killed at least 21 people, many of them residents of a devastated mobile home community in Andover, Kansas.

We’ll be back with an (upbeat!) Earth Day post on Friday.

Bob Henson


Climate Change El Niño

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Glad I have my PWS on Wunderground, love watching it online especially when it rains

In my short life since January 1960..it has gone up 90ppm.

2016, the year Earth Atmo 2.0 Climate strikes back.

An upbeat post on earth day? That should be fun...
Scripps el Nino forecast






Jim Cantore
34 mins ·
Talking w/ @NWSSPC ; today marks only 3rd time a Day8 SEVERE risk has been issued since these outlooks began Mar '05 https://t.co/msd95wPx06
Thanks for the new blog Mr. Henson.

Being a severe weather junkie, I can't help but get excited when I see images like this. Hopefully if there are any major tornadoes next week they will stay out over open country.
From the blog..."NOAA's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is already highlighting the risk of severe weather on both Tuesday and Thursday"
Yes, Tuesday and Thursday... also Wednesday, Day 7, has a risk area delineated by SPC in
today's SPC Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
Excerpt mentioning Wednesday...
WEDNESDAY/DAY 7... A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

Thanks Mr. Henson..It is my belief he dwindling Nino at such a rapid pace is likely playing a significant part..( Especially at Mauna Loa )..Thats a lot of C02 coming out of the ocean.
Excellent choice, Storm God! There is a storm firing NW Jackson County IL.

Unrelated to the topic but Prince has died at the age of 57.R.I.P I grew up on his music back in the late 70's and 80's.Please don't take down my post.
Quoting 11. washingtonian115:

Unrelated to the topic but Prince has died at the age of 57.R.I.P I grew up on his music back in the late 70's and 80's.Please don't take down my post.
Felt strange when I found out...Heard him this morning.
Quoting 7. Barefootontherocks:

From the blog..."NOAA%u2019s Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is already highlighting the risk of severe weather on both Tuesday and Thursday"
Yes, Tuesday and Thursday... also Wednesday, Day 7, has a risk area delineated by SPC in
today's SPC Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
Excerpt mentioning Wednesday...
WEDNESDAY/DAY 7
... A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WILL BE POSSIBLE.




Indeed--thanks for the catch! As a native Oklahoman, my eye always goes there first, but Wednesday could be troublesome further northeast. I've updated the blog.
   Thanks for the new post Mr. Henson....
Quoting 11. washingtonian115:

Unrelated to the topic but Prince has died at the age of 57.R.I.P I grew up on his music back in the late 70's and 80's.Please don't take down my post.


WTF, 2016?! Seriously?! People are dying left and right.
Quoting 6. Sfloridacat5:

Thanks for the new blog Mr. Henson.

Being a severe weather junkie, I can't help but get excited when I see images like this. Hopefully if there are any major tornadoes next week they will stay out over open country.

That looks bad.
...
Quoting 2. Patrap:

In my short life since January 1960..it has gone up 90ppm.

2016, the year Earth Atmo 2.0 Climate strikes back.


Member i said 500 ppm by 2030...wanna bet on it.?....huh...huh...huh...?...:)
Quoting 18. hydrus:

Member i said 500 ppm by 2030...wanna bet on it.?....huh...huh...huh...?...:)


I'll bet on 500ppm by August 30, 2024: The day the Bell Riots will begin (see DS9: Past Tense, Parts 1 and 2 for more info on the Bell Riots)
No doubt, the El Nino is at least partly responsible for the CO2 increase. The previous annual increase record (2.93 ppm) was set in 1998, when there was a record breaking El Nino. There was speculation back then that it may have been caused by out of control forest fires in Indonesia.

Warmer oceans are another possibility. CO2 is absorbed by cold oceanic water, and outgassed by warmer water in the tropics. I don't want to spoil anyone's day, but there's nothing, in theory, to prevent a warmer ocean becoming a net source of CO2, rather than a sink.

That would be interesting.
21. SLU
Let's celebrate!!!!



Yep .. All that warmth in the Arctic circle will no doubt be the main reason.
Huge Methane releases from melting permafrost.

Guys, we're probably barking up the wrong tree by now: Methane might well have taken the lead as a cause, at least for the not-so-GW of the Borealis. We all know that CH4 is 100 times more potent as CO2. Permafrost and ocean floors are farting like what have you, so I doubt that the ENSO will serve as a global guideline for much longer. I'm sure that nothing will decrease come La Niña - not even when the PDO switches back to negative.
Is there any regular monitoring of CH4 happening, and being published?
Note to Native Son - carried over from the last blog:

I thank you for responding. Let me try to clarify. While I rarely have the opportunity to post, I make sure to lurk everyday. Over these past few years, you have seemed to align yourself firmly in the denial camp. (Perhaps I have assigned this belief to you incorrectly; I don't think I have, but if so, then I consider this post an address to other deniers) I really just wanted to know the mechanisms behind your opinion. I truly want to understand how deniers can question the integrity of professional, trained scientists, the majority of whom are poorly paid by the universities that employ them, while placing their unquestioned faith into corporate entities who will not hesitate to lie in order to protect their profit margins. In addition, how do you (the generalized you, not you specifically) place your faith in a secondary source that essentially was written centuries before any of the events it describes MIGHT have occurred, while disparaging actual, proven data? Perhaps it is a weakness of my training in the history field, but I tend to believe theories that are supported by physical evidence, rather than buy into stories that have been and continued to be used to establish and maintain control of a population unwilling to think critically! Please understand, I am not trying to attack you personally! Just trying to understand how, in the face of an astounding amount of actual, physical evidence, how individuals who are willing to accept what may be an impossible premise can so easily deny a truth that is staring us all in the face!
Quoting 6. Sfloridacat5:

Thanks for the new blog Mr. Henson.

Being a severe weather junkie, I can't help but get excited when I see images like this. Hopefully if there are any major tornadoes next week they will stay out over open country.

There has gotta be something with April 26 and 27 and tornadoes. This potential outbreak is happening the 25th of Andover, The 5th of the Super Outbreak 2, and The 2nd of Mayflower.
RIP Prince. A tremendous talent.
Quoting 22. EmsiNasklug:

Yep .. All that warmth in the Arctic circle will no doubt be the main reason.
Huge Methane releases from melting permafrost.

Guys, we're probably barking up the wrong tree by now: Methane might well have taken the lead as a cause, at least for the not-so-GW of the Borealis. We all know that CH4 is 100 times more potent as CO2. Permafrost and ocean floors are farting like what have you, so I doubt that the ENSO will serve as a global guideline for much longer. I'm sure that nothing will decrease come La Niña - not even when the PDO switches back to negative.
Is there any regular monitoring of CH4 happening, and being published?



"While methane is a more potent greenhouse gas than CO2, there is over 200 times more CO2 in the atmosphere. Hence the amount of warming methane contributes is 28% of the warming CO2 contributes."

Here is a good link for concentrations and forcings


Remember, methane is short lived and breaks down into CO2 and H20 through a reaction with O3.
Also I do have to say this. I used to be a big denial person then I started to go on this blog. Now I'm a believer of climate change. Which is odd considering I'm a big republican otherwise.
Quoting 23. ProphetessofDoom:

Note to Native Son - carried over from the last blog:

I thank you for responding. Let me try to clarify. While I rarely have the opportunity to post, I make sure to lurk everyday. Over these past few years, you have seemed to align yourself firmly in the denial camp. (Perhaps I have assigned this belief to you incorrectly; I don't think I have, but if so, then I consider this post an address to other deniers) I really just wanted to know the mechanisms behind your opinion. I truly want to understand how deniers can question the integrity of professional, trained scientists, the majority of whom are poorly paid by the universities that employ them, while placing their unquestioned faith into corporate entities who will not hesitate to lie in order to protect their profit margins. In addition, how do you (the generalized you, not you specifically) place your faith in a secondary source that essentially was written centuries before any of the events it describes MIGHT have occurred, while disparaging actual, proven data? Perhaps it is a weakness of my training in the history field, but I tend to believe theories that are supported by physical evidence, rather than buy into stories that have been and continued to be used to establish and maintain control of a population unwilling to think critically! Please understand, I am not trying to attack you personally! Just trying to understand how, in the face of an astounding amount of actual, physical evidence, how individuals who are willing to accept what may be an impossible premise can so easily deny a truth that is staring us all in the face!


Brava, Prophetess! So very well written.

And one more thing, off topic from the quote but weather related.... Anyone else see this?

Dust Devil sucks Chinese schoolboy up into the air

First saw it on the BBC... whoa.
Quoting 25. PensacolaDoug:

RIP Prince. A tremendous talent.


As a guitar player myself, it has been a well known fact in guitar circles for years that Prince is one of the best rock & roll/funk guitarists of the modern pop age but his guitar playing often is in the background of his music (and talents as a multi-instrumentalist and songwriter since the early 1980s)...................He is an icon, who fused rock/pop/county/funk and other influences into his music and a lot of people will mourn the loss heavily...............If you think about the tempo and structure of "Purple Rain", along with the fact that he mostly plays Telecasters, Purple Rain is essentially a country (Nashville) style ballad at it's heart.
Quoting 27. Geoboy645:

Also I do have to say this. I used to be a big denial person then I started to go on this blog. Now I'm a believer of climate change. Which is odd considering I'm a big republican otherwise.

Not so odd. That's the difference between science and ideology.
Quoting 28. weblackey:



Brava, Prophetess! So very well written.

And one more thing, off topic from the quote but weather related.... Anyone else see this?

Dust Devil sucks Chinese schoolboy up into the air

First saw it on the BBC... whoa.



I have got to see the actual video of this "dust devil." I'm also trying to estimate the wind speed necessary to throw a kid that high off the ground.
Is there anyone that could possibly get the transcript of this speach?

Title
Environmental Intelligence: Quantifying the Risks of Climate Change

Session Code
EMR002

Date/Time
Tuesday, April 12th
9:00 AM to 10:00 AM


Speaker
Margaret Davidson
Michael Angelina

Description

Climate change is about to change your traditional risk management methods. See how the federal government—U.S. Department of Commerce and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)—can help you by making data useful and accessible with resources such as DigitalCoast and Climate.gov. And examine the works of actuarial societies—the Actuaries Climate Index (ACI) and Actuaries Climate Risk Index (ACRI). Get the tools that will help you understand how traditional risk management applies to the risks of climate change.
Category:
Emerging Risks (EMR)
Learning Objectives:
• Recognize common misconceptions about climate risk. • Assemble tools and resources that quantify the impact of climate change on specific insurance hazards.
Level:
Innovative
http://m5.goeshow.com/rims/annual/2016/mobile_spe aker_profile.cfm?speaker_key=C3D9F091-CEEF-E725-FA 3D-70D38277C43D

In this article she is said to have said, but the speech is not on You Tube and Google search and search of NOAA did not turn it up.

Think sea level rise will be moderate and something we can all plan for? Think again.

Sea levels could rise by much more than originally anticipated, and much faster, according to new data being collected by scientists studying the melting West Antarctic ice sheet – a massive sheet the size of Mexico.

That revelation was made by an official with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Tuesday at the annual RIMS conference for risk management and insurance professionals in San Diego, Calif.

The conference is being attended by more than 10,000 people, according to organizers. It was day No. 3 of the conference, which ends Wednesday.

Margaret Davidson, NOAA’s senior advisor for coastal inundation and resilience science and services, and Michael Angelina, executive director of the Academy of Risk Management and Insurance, offered their take on climate change data in a conference session titled “Environmental Intelligence: Quantifying the Risks of Climate Change.”


http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/201 6/04/12/405089.htm

The article explains why all the scientist predictions have been on the low side. It also starts hinting at why insurance is being cancelled. From the article we can expect 9 feet of rise in 45 year or less If we assume that the rise will be back loaded, and just grab a number, 2/3rd of the rise in the last half of the 45 years, we can expect 3 feet of rise in 22 years. If we do the same again, divide that 22 years in half and back load the 3 feet we can expect 1 foot of rise in 11 years. Or, a solid measurable inch every year within 5 years.

Just rough back of the envelope guesstimates on my part. As one who is more concerned with Macro Economics than weather, (weather is just another input) my guess is that we will see rather large Macro economic changes due to sea level rise.

Also, just an aside. If you had a house on the beach, and you knew that it would be uneconmic to keep due to changes in its environment. (Doesn't matter, climate, crime, politics) would you advertise that? Or would you down play the people saying the truth until you could unload that dog?

Cheers Qazulight (Think like a bankster)




Quoting 13. BobHenson:



Indeed--thanks for the catch! As a native Oklahoman, my eye always goes there first, but Wednesday could be troublesome further northeast. I've updated the blog.
Thank you.
I am not native but firmly planted in OK, so I know what you mean.
Quoting 26. Naga5000:



"While methane is a more potent greenhouse gas than CO2, there is over 200 times more CO2 in the atmosphere. Hence the amount of warming methane contributes is 28% of the warming CO2 contributes."

Here is a good link for concentrations and forcings


Remember, methane is short lived and breaks down into CO2 and H20 through a reaction with O3.

Hi Naga, yes it's less than CO2 but 28% is nothing to sneeze at. From what I recall methane is significantly more effective (perhaps longer lived?) as a green house gas in colder latitudes - precisely where it's accumulating the most. The net global warming effect of methane might be much more than we think when considering feedback loops with the reduced snow/ice albedo it forces in the arctic. Anyone with more info please chime in.
Quoting 28. weblackey:



Brava, Prophetess! So very well written.

And one more thing, off topic from the quote but weather related.... Anyone else see this?

Dust Devil sucks Chinese schoolboy up into the air

First saw it on the BBC... whoa.

Wer ya been...Have not seen you post in long time...:)
Quoting 29. weathermanwannabe:



As a guitar player myself, it has been a well known fact in guitar circles for years that Prince is one of the best rock & roll/funk guitarists of the modern pop age but his guitar playing often is in the background of his music (and talents as a multi-instrumentalist and songwriter since the early 1980s)...................He is an icon, who fused rock/pop/county/funk and other influences into his music and a lot of people will mourn the loss heavily...............If you think about the tempo and structure of "Purple Rain", along with the fact that he mostly plays Telecasters, Purple Rain is essentially a country (Nashville) style ballad at it's heart.
No doubt a musical genius. Played over 20 instruments...I play too....Almost every one in Mid TN does...:)
Quoting 36. hydrus:

No doubt a musical genius. Played over 20 instruments...I play too....Almost every one in Mid TN does...:)


Nothing sweeter than the sound of a chainsaw going thru a banjo....

All kidding aside. Yeah, very talented person, wonder what happened. I know it said he has sick.
Received a little over a 1/2" yesterday in S C IL, may have a bit more coming as the low spins along the MO-IA border, good for crops and morels. Nice to come back to green after visiting daughter in Tempe, AZ last weekend (her 21st bday). While loved seeing the Saguaro & Grand Canyon, could not live in desert unless I had to. Fortunately, they had a little cool spell (low 80s highs) while out there.

Will be interesting to see how month avg runs, if that was just a blob of CO2 or not. Also, will be on edge of severe risk next Wed, if holds.

Currently, 65 w/ 54 d. pt., 29.82", light SE-SW winds. Hit 13.5 hrs of daylight today!
Quoting 26. Naga5000:



Thanks for the link ...

Methane levels started to increase again, about 8 or 9 years ago, so this graph needs an update.

Tropical Storm Agatha?
Quoting 31. Sfloridacat5:



I have got to see the actual video of this "dust devil." I'm also trying to estimate the wind speed necessary to throw a kid that high off the ground.


LiveLeak has it. That's one of the most vicious little dust devils I've ever seen, and I've seen a lot of them...
Our next front should clear central Florida Sat night/Sunday morning-bringing a refreshing shot of dry air. But like the last front, don't expect a cool down except slightly at night! After that, we'll have to wait until the first week of may.
Quoting 28. weblackey:



Brava, Prophetess! So very well written.

And one more thing, off topic from the quote but weather related.... Anyone else see this?

Dust Devil sucks Chinese schoolboy up into the air

First saw it on the BBC... whoa.



There have been known incidences of dust devils tossing tractor trailers and destroying property even in the US plains and Southwest! Some have even reached thousands of feet high!
This was on TWC Wunderground yesterday of another dust devil

Website with Video
Quoting 40. HurricaneFan:


Tropical Storm Agatha?

Looks like Tropical Storm 384HRS to me.
Quoting 41. Neapolitan:



LiveLeak has it. That's one of the most vicious little dust devils I've ever seen, and I've seen a lot of them...


I'd have never believed it without seeing the video. That was a truly amazing "dust devil."
Quoting 23. ProphetessofDoom:

Note to Native Son - ... Please understand, I am not trying to attack you personally! Just trying to understand how, in the face of an astounding amount of actual, physical evidence, how individuals who are willing to accept what may be an impossible premise can so easily deny a truth that is staring us all in the face!


This is actually pretty simple, if you are actually interested in the workings of the mind. The mistrust stems from a few things. First, these studies (the vast majority) are funded through grants from a government that no one should trust. Second, the fact that most often those decrying global warming couple those cries with calls for imposing control on the population, population control itself, or back some alternative energy forms/requirements which are economically/environmentally detrimental, i.e. wind / solar (commence in replying how thousands acres of solar farms, battery banks, and bird killing windmills are excusable for the cause.) Third, those same people at best don’t advocate, and predominantly disparage real and current energy solutions i.e. nuclear, hydro electric, and when they disparage nuclear energy they do so in full hypocritical denial of the well documented fact that nuclear is the safest and greenest form of mass energy on the face of this planet, and in full throated irony bring out emotional based arguments of the very few and mostly very old incidents in the long history of nuclear energy. (Fukushima being the only modern incident resultant from poor design and so far monitoring has shown that the radiation contamination has been far from devastating to humans/environment)
Finally, I don’t deny that the climate is changing, I live in central California and I can tell you the tule fog has all but vanished in recent the winters. However, I personally don’t see the rise of a few degrees in temperature as an end of the world catastrophic threat. If anything I see opportunity, if the seas rise people will move inland, and we will be able to develop crop land/species farther north than we are currently able to. People will adapt as it comes, we’re pretty resilient like that, but this last paragraph is simply the opinion of one who is driven by logic alone according to a recent personality test.

This was on TWC Wunderground yesterday of another dust devil

Website with Video


That's a pretty common dust devil in that video. I've seen some pretty strong dust devils on the flat plains of Texas. But that dust devil in China that throws the kid in the air is incredible.
I've seen people hit by EF-0 tornadoes and they didn't get thrown in the air.
Also for those interested, there are some very noteworthy and interesting things going on with the arctic melt season right now. Outstanding dialog to be found in the Arctic Sea Ice Forum starting at page 9.
Quoting 35. hydrus:

Wer ya been...Have not seen you post in long time...:)


Been swamped with family stuff. I lurk when I can, but after seeing the dust devil video, had to make sure y'all saw it. Then read the comment I applauded. To paraphrase a famous ad "Nobody can read just one."
Quoting 50. weblackey:



Been swamped with family stuff. I lurk when I can, but after seeing the dust devil video, had to make sure y'all saw it. Then read the comment I applauded. To paraphrase a famous ad "Nobody can read just one."
Lucky lil dude...:)
Here is a more updated atmospheric GHG chart from NOAA [http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/]
including methane.

Quoting 39. EmsiNasklug:


Thanks for the link ...

Methane levels started to increase again, about 8 or 9 years ago, so this graph needs an update.


The second link to NOAA has up to 2015. :)

Quoting 47. civEngineer:



This is actually pretty simple, if you are actually interested in the workings of the mind. The mistrust stems from a few things. First, these studies (the vast majority) are funded through grants from a government that no one should trust. Second, the fact that most often those decrying global warming couple those cries with calls for imposing control on the population, population control itself, or back some alternative energy forms/requirements which are economically/environmentally detrimental, i.e. wind / solar (commence in replying how thousands acres of solar farms, battery banks, and bird killing windmills are excusable for the cause.) Third, those same people at best don%u2019t advocate, and predominantly disparage real and current energy solutions i.e. nuclear, hydro electric, and when they disparage nuclear energy they do so in full hypocritical denial of the well documented fact that nuclear is the safest and greenest form of mass energy on the face of this planet, and in full throated irony bring out emotional based arguments of the very few and mostly very old incidents in the long history of nuclear energy. (Fukushima being the only modern incident resultant from poor design and so far monitoring has shown that the radiation contamination has been far from devastating to humans/environment)
Finally, I don%u2019t deny that the climate is changing, I live in central California and I can tell you the tule fog has all but vanished in recent the winters. However, I personally don%u2019t see the rise of a few degrees in temperature as an end of the world catastrophic threat. If anything I see opportunity, if the seas rise people will move inland, and we will be able to develop crop land/species farther north than we are currently able to. People will adapt as it comes, we%u2019re pretty resilient like that, but this last paragraph is simply the opinion of one who is driven by logic alone according to a recent personality test.



It's comments like this that make debunking the denial so easy.

No attempt is made to refute science or empirical data.

Seeds of doubt are planted with borderline paranoid opinions like "a government no one should trust."

It's amazing you can post that under a screen name that eludes to engineering.
A C02 spike, warmest temperatures since measurements begans, and that spike in the greenland ice sheet melt... All kinda concerning. Is this the start that tipping point where we fall off the cliff?
It's getting about that time.



Quoting 55. Dakster:

A C02 spike, warmest temperatures since measurements begans, and that spike in the greenland ice sheet melt... All kinda concerning. Is this the start that tipping point where we fall off the cliff?


And, if you look closely at the methane graphs, below, there was a very recent spike in methane in the last year. It's all kicking off.
Quoting 47. civEngineer:

I personally don’t see the rise of a few degrees in temperature as an end of the world catastrophic threat.
I personally don’t see smoking five packs of Marlboros a day as a catastrophic threat to my health. My doctors diagree, but what do they know?
Quoting 47. civEngineer:

If anything I see opportunity, if the seas rise people will move inland.
Oh, just like that, people will move inland? it's that simple? Let's consider just the US. Where will the tens of millions of displaced live and work? How will they relocate, given that their coastal home is unsaleable, and they've lost all they had?
Quoting 47. civEngineer:

...we will be able to develop crop land/species farther north than we are currently able to.
Really? Canada? You think they'll be okay with that? Also: did you know that even with temperatures rising, the Arctic will still be dark six months out of the year. Waht crops do yoiuy see us 'developing", then? Aside from some tasty mushrooms, that is?
Quoting 47. civEngineer:

People will adapt as it comes, we’re pretty resilient like that...
You state that with such confidence. But the earth has never had to feed and house eight billion-plus disrupted people, all of them fighting for a vanishing number of resources; I guess we'll see just how "resilient" we really are.
Quoting 47. civEngineer:

... this last paragraph is simply the opinion of one who is driven by logic alone according to a recent personality test.
Pure logic without facts = no logic at all.
Okay that is just about enough of that nonsense. That is about 200 miles SE of my house! I thought they fixed the GFS for this year?

Quoting 40. HurricaneFan:


Tropical Storm Agatha?
Quoting 34. VibrantPlanet:


Hi Naga, yes it's less than CO2 but 28% is nothing to sneeze at. From what I recall methane is significantly more effective (perhaps longer lived?) as a green house gas in colder latitudes - precisely where it's accumulating the most. The net global warming effect of methane might be much more than we think when considering feedback loops with the reduced snow/ice albedo it forces in the arctic. Anyone with more info please chime in.

Just a snippet:
The growth rate of methane declined from 1983 until 1999, consistent with an approach to steady-state. ... From 1999 to 2006, the atmospheric CH4 burden was about constant, but since 2007, globally averaged CH4 has been increasing again. ... The global methane increase was substantially faster during 2014 than during 2007-2013.
Link
Quoting 60. DogtownMex:

Okay that is just about enough of that nonsense. That is about 200 miles SE of my house! I thought they fixed the GFS for this year?




Yes, they did....
thanks gentlemen have a great day
Quoting 54. ariot:



It's comments like this that make debunking the denial so easy.

No attempt is made to refute science or empirical data.

Seeds of doubt are planted with borderline paranoid opinions like "a government no one should trust."

It's amazing you can post that under a screen name that eludes to engineering.



Thank you! This blogger also apparently believed that in my reliance upon logic, (which, in my opinion is better than paranoid hysteria)I might not have the emotional intelligence to recognize his subtle, almost hidden insult! Perhaps he did not recognize the concept of irony or understand the idea of a rhetorical question!
Pacific just mad that the Atl got a head start
Quoting 59. Neapolitan:

I personally don’t see smoking five packs of Marlboros a day as a catastrophic threat to my health. My doctors diagree, but what do they know?Oh, just like that, people will move inland? it's that simple? Let's consider just the US. Where will the tens of millions of displaced live and work? How will they relocate, given that their coastal home is unsaleable, and they've lost all they had?Really? Canada? You think they'll be okay with that? Also: did you know that even with temperatures rising, the Arctic will still be dark six months out of the year. Waht crops do yoiuy see us 'developing", then? Aside from some tasty mushrooms, that is?You state that with such confidence. But the earth has never had to feed and house eight billion-plus disrupted people, all of them fighting for a vanishing number of resources; I guess we'll see just how "resilient" we really are.Pure logic without facts = no logic at all.


Thank you for your emotional reply and while logical based on pretentious premises. One example (just off the top of my head) would be to grow say tomatoes in eastern washington/oregon/idaho where we are unable to now because it is just slightly too cold. By the by, the north may have shorter winter days but they also have longer summer days, most crops have a germination to harvest of less than 120 days. Your argument seems to be that all these people would be displaced in a short amount of time but the sea levels suggest that it will be over the course of decades so yeah I don't see an issue with moving people inland. Moreover I look forward to fishing in the awesome reefs that would be created by the current buildings in the San Francisco bay area. Furthermore, your arguments also stipulate that we would be unable to continue to grow crops in the lower states which wouldn't be true, perhaps not the same crops or the same production as we are now but where there's water and sun crops will grow.

Quoting 47. civEngineer:


The mistrust stems from a few things. First, these studies (the vast majority) are funded through grants from a government that no one should trust.

I don't know if you follow the news at all, but Exxon-Mobil scientists were well aware of AGW a few decades ago.  They didn't publish their finding in public journals, but the internal emails made very clear where they stood.

I must ask if you smoke, since most of the data showing the harm of smoking were obtained from government-funded research.




Quoting 47. civEngineer:



Third, those same people at best don’t advocate, and predominantly disparage real and current energy solutions i.e. nuclear, hydro electric, and when they disparage nuclear energy they do so in full hypocritical denial of the well documented fact that nuclear is the safest and greenest form of mass energy on the face of this planet, and in full throated irony bring out emotional based arguments of the very few and mostly very old incidents in the long history of nuclear energy. (Fukushima being the only modern incident resultant from poor design and so far monitoring has shown that the radiation contamination has been far from devastating to humans/environment). 

I can't speak for others, but I accept AGW AND see nuclear as part of the solution.  France gets 70% of their energy from nukes (almost all of their electricity) and has never has a problem.  Fukushima and Chernobyl were both preventable, though I wouldn't say the contamination was minor.  It was major in a localized area.  As  for hydro, there aren't that many rivers left to dam.  Northern Canada still has a few, but you are looking at long transmission lines, with loss along the way.  And the First Nations have legitimate interests  in preserving their way of life.




Quoting 47. civEngineer:



nitoring has shown that the radiation contamination has been far from devastating to humans/environment)
Finally, I don’t deny that the climate is changing, I live in central California and I can tell you the tule fog has all but vanished in recent the winters. However, I personally don’t see the rise of a few degrees in temperature as an end of the world catastrophic threat. If anything I see opportunity, if the seas rise people will move inland, and we will be able to develop crop land/species farther north than we are currently able to. People will adapt as it comes, we’re pretty resilient like that, but this last paragraph is simply the opinion of one who is driven by logic alone according to a recent personality test.



I won''t say you are wrong or right.  Even you would have to admit
there are a ton of unknowns and that there is a substantial risk the
adaptation will be much more difficult than you think.  That's why I
think we need to take prudent steps to reduce carbon emissions.  I note
that the argument that that will cause terrible economic harm is also
unproven.  It's certainly possible it could hamper growth; it's also possible it could have no effect or even increase growth.  We just don't know.

Let me ask you this-wouldn't the wisest course be to
start taking action and set a time (say 10  years from now) to look at
what the economic and other effects areThat would seem to me to be what a real engineer would recommend for any engineering problem.
Quoting 65. ProphetessofDoom:



Thank you! This blogger also apparently believed that in my reliance upon logic, (which, in my opinion is better than paranoid hysteria)I might not have the emotional intelligence to recognize his subtle, almost hidden insult! Perhaps he did not recognize the concept of irony or understand the idea of a rhetorical question!


Just matching the thinly veiled contempt from your original post. I find it sexist that you assume I am a man.
Has the eastern Pacific had storms in April?

Quoting 67. civEngineer:



Thank you for your emotional reply and while logical based on pretentious premises. One example (just off the top of my head) would be to grow say tomatoes in eastern washington/oregon/idaho where we are unable to now because it is just slightly too cold. By the by, the north may have shorter winter days but they also have longer summer days, most crops have a germination to harvest of less than 120 days. Your argument seems to be that all these people would be displaced in a short amount of time but the sea levels suggest that it will be over the course of decades so yeah I don't see an issue with moving people inland. Moreover I look forward to fishing in the awesome reefs that would be created by the current buildings in the San Francisco bay area. Furthermore, your arguments also stipulate that we would be unable to continue to grow crops in the lower states which wouldn't be true, perhaps not the same crops or the same production as we are now but where there's water and sun crops will grow.

Northern soils are very thin and poor, because there has been little plant life there to enrich the soil.  The other issue is that even a warmer climate would still leave those regions subject to a high risk of frost during the growing season.  A single night in July or August  with a wind from the north and a drop to a couple of degrees below freezing would be  enough to kill many crops.  A higher average temperature wouldn't eliminate that risk.  Yukon farming would be OK some years and a disaster in others even in a warmer world.

My position remains the same despite your arguments-prudent steps to reduce emissions with evaluation points along the way to assess the economic effects.  How as an engineer can you  totally disregard risks of the unknown?  Could you tell me what bridges you have designed so that i may  evaluate whether  to cross them?  Thanks.

Quoting 67. civEngineer:



Thank you for your emotional reply and while logical based on pretentious premises. One example (just off the top of my head) would be to grow say tomatoes in eastern washington/oregon/idaho where we are unable to now because it is just slightly too cold. By the by, the north may have shorter winter days but they also have longer summer days, most crops have a germination to harvest of less than 120 days. Your argument seems to be that all these people would be displaced in a short amount of time but the sea levels suggest that it will be over the course of decades so yeah I don't see an issue with moving people inland. Moreover I look forward to fishing in the awesome reefs that would be created by the current buildings in the San Francisco bay area. Furthermore, your arguments also stipulate that we would be unable to continue to grow crops in the lower states which wouldn't be true, perhaps not the same crops or the same production as we are now but where there's water and sun crops will grow.
Wait. So if enough polar ice melted to raise sea levels to the point that San Francisco was flooded, that'd be just peachy to you because you could fish there?

Got it.

Sea level rise of that magnitude over the course of decades--which, by the way, absolutely no one is forecasting--would displace billions of people around the globe, cost tens of trillions in lost infrastructure, prompt massive resource wars, and lead to nearly complete disruption and destruction of civilization as we know it. But that's okay; 'tis merely a flesh wound.

Oh, my.

Well, one supposes your optimism is laudable, even if it's optimism formed in a logical and factual void...
I ordered a front end loader for this recent influx of overwhelming derp,..deep,deep,derp.


: )

Quoting 73. Patrap:

I ordered a front end loader for this recent influx of overwhelming derp,..deep,deep,derp.


: )




Surprised you could get one, I figured they would all be staged at the next place Trump will be speaking at...
Quoting 68. science101:






Nice to see a somewhat measured response, I can tell you that in California Title 24 compliance is a major economic hindrance to development with some of the asinine light fixture requirements, also our summer blend fuel and cap and trade fuel tax have lead to a skyrocket in gas prices here as compared with the rest of the nation which hurts the poorest among us first at the gas pump.

I am a firm proponent of taking the best course of action which would be a massive expansion of nuclear energy. If emissions are as critical as it is believed it is the only real course of action. California still has plenty hydroelectric options left but we're actually in the process of tearing our dams down.
Quoting 47. civEngineer:



This is actually pretty simple, if you are actually interested in the workings of the mind. The mistrust stems from a few things. First, these studies (the vast majority) are funded through grants from a government that no one should trust.


Yes, because Fourier, Arrhenius, and the science crew of the 1700's and 1800's who gave rise to modern physics and chemistry were all part of the Illuminati and hatched a brilliant international conspiracy that would lead to world domination of climate scientists 100-200 years after their deaths.

Your attempt at disparaging the science by the ludicrous notion of a world-wide conspiracy spanning multiple governments and institutions involving tens of thousands of researchers is beyond absurd.

Science is about reproducibility. Take a study you don't agree with. Perform their methods. Follow their analysis. Spot where you think the conspiracy portion is. The research, data, and even code for most climate research is freely available.

Second, the fact that most often those decrying global warming couple those cries with calls for imposing control on the population, population control itself, or back some alternative energy forms/requirements which are economically/environmentally detrimental, i.e. wind / solar (commence in replying how thousands acres of solar farms, battery banks, and bird killing windmills are excusable for the cause.)


False. This is a common refrain from deniers which, as per their normal MO, is stated without any sort of evidence to support it (or outright lies). What most are calling for are policies in regards to actual sustainability as opposed to our current "burn the world approach". You'd have to be pretty naive to think that current global policies are sustainable and they certainly have proven themselves to not be environmentally friendly. They're not economical either, since they never include the ancillary external costs. That's the whole "privatize profits, socialize the loses" system we've developed over the past few decades.

Third, those same people at best don’t advocate, and predominantly disparage real and current energy solutions i.e. nuclear, hydro electric, and when they disparage nuclear energy they do so in full hypocritical denial of the well documented fact that nuclear is the safest and greenest form of mass energy on the face of this planet, and in full throated irony bring out emotional based arguments of the very few and mostly very old incidents in the long history of nuclear energy. (Fukushima being the only modern incident resultant from poor design and so far monitoring has shown that the radiation contamination has been far from devastating to humans/environment)


Again, false. Most realize that the future is going to involve some combination of nuclear and renewables if we want to address green house emissions in the near future and maintain the current growth rates in electrical consumption.


Finally, I don’t deny that the climate is changing, I live in central California and I can tell you the tule fog has all but vanished in recent the winters. However, I personally don’t see the rise of a few degrees in temperature as an end of the world catastrophic threat.


That's most likely because you're ignorant of exactly what a couple degrees can do to a planetary climate system. Extinction level events are triggered by such changes, especially if such changes occur rapidly (which they're doing now). Even regional changes can be catastrophic, as demonstrated within our own short history where civilizations imploded and vanished.

For example, take a look at the current major agricultural areas of the world. I usually use the US midwest as an example. Now let's say the climate shifts and the dominant pattern that usually feeds plenty of gulf moisture over the area gets pushed eastward causing severe drought conditions. Are you aware of exactly how much of the global food supply would be disrupted as a result? Just look at what happened when Russia stopped exporting Rice when a drought affected their production, but much worse.

That's just one potential change. Sea level rise, salt water intrusion, invasive species, diseases, species extinctions. The list goes on and on.

If anything I see opportunity, if the seas rise people will move inland, and we will be able to develop crop land/species farther north than we are currently able to.


*facepalm*

This is where educating yourself can really help you understand the scope of what's happening. Do you know WHY farming occurs where it does? Do you really think temperature is all that is important?

Let me clue you in. The reason why farming occurs where it does is because of a combination of climate, geology, and plant properties that lend themselves to high food production. There are few locations on the planet that can support agriculture on the scale we currently use, let alone support the conditions required by our current food crops.

People will adapt as it comes, we’re pretty resilient like that, but this last paragraph is simply the opinion of one who is driven by logic alone according to a recent personality test.


Driven by logic doesn't automatically mean or imply you're knowledgeable about the subject matter you're trying to be logical about. Hence why it is good practice to research topics before making absolute statements about them.

In addition, for someone "driven by logic" you seem all to ready to believe in an improbable multi-century global conspiracy than well established science that has existed over said time frame and is used regularly in our modern world.
does anyone know where the forecasts come from on the site?
reason why I ask is in my location it says that at this hour we will have 100% rain.
there is literally not a cloud in the sky other than some high cirrus.
Semester is going fine, I think I have all Bs in my classes. We had DOW6 on campus for three weeks, so that was pretty sweet. We had that tornado in the county back in February....strange. Now it's warm, but not warm enough for a southern kid to wear shorts. Everyone else is...I'm still in a jacket though. :/

Quoting 36. hydrus:

No doubt a musical genius. Played over 20 instruments...I play too....Almost every one in Mid TN does...:)


Yup. Flute, recorder (for a year) and concert percussion. Lol. They start music teaching early, we consider it important to a child's success later on.
Quoting 72. Neapolitan:

Wait. So if enough polar ice melted to raise sea levels to the point that San Francisco was flooded, that'd be just peachy to you because you could fish there?

Got it.

Sea level rise of that magnitude over the course of decades--which, by the way, absolutely no one is forecasting--would displace billions of people around the globe, cost tens of trillions in lost infrastructure, prompt massive resource wars, and lead to nearly complete disruption and destruction of civilization as we know it. But that's okay; 'tis merely a flesh wound.

Oh, my.

Well, one supposes your optimism is laudable, even if it's optimism formed in a logical and factual void...

Correction it is an emotional void, but I maintain people will adapt.
Quoting 79. civEngineer:


Correction it is an emotional void, but I maintain people will adapt.
Certainly they will; they'll have no choice. Now, so long as you're aware that death and mass die-offs are very common methods of adapting, I think we can both agree you've made a little progress today.

Quoting 75. civEngineer:


I can tell you that in California Title 24 compliance is a major economic hindrance to development with some of the asinine light fixture requirements, also our summer blend fuel and cap and trade fuel tax have lead to a skyrocket in gas prices here as compared with the rest of the nation which hurts the poorest among us first at the gas pump.

California's economy is one of the strongest in the nation in recent years, so it doesn't really seem to  have hampered the state too much.  British Columbia put in a serious  carbon tax and the effects on the economy have been negligible according to several recent studies.  The effect on the poor can be ameliorated by refundable tax credits, which is what BC has done.


As I said, I support nuclear.  I  think you are grossly overestimating the potential of hydropower in California, given the current long-term drought, which one El Nino winter of merely average snow has not ameliorated.

Again, I ask, as an engineer, aren't you supposed to build in fail-safes for all conceivable situations?  Your plans seem poorly  developed, more hand-waving and hope than anything else.

Quoting 79. civEngineer:


Correction it is an emotional void, but I maintain people will adapt.

I guess dying in droves is a form of adaptation.

Btw, logic is a process. If the material you're using it on inaccurate, as appears to be the case for you, then you will arrive at the correct conclusion only through luck. You don't appear to be very lucky on AGW/CC. Improve your inputs and that should clear right up, though.
Quoting 71. science101:





Even here in California the future of agriculture is in micro management of the soil. Nothing aside from cover crops is grown even here with out soil amendments or fertilization. Production yield has been increased significantly through micro irrigation and subterranean irrigation/fertilization. So long as the animals of the world are answering natures call the crops will get what they need, and there is no reason to think it cannot be achieved in the norther states as well.
Also under the hypothetical that AGW is so significant that farming production not meeting demand in the lower states, I would assume at that point frosty nights in mid summer in the northern states would be a thing of the past.
Quoting 65. ProphetessofDoom:



Thank you! This blogger also apparently believed that in my reliance upon logic, (which, in my opinion is better than paranoid hysteria)I might not have the emotional intelligence to recognize his subtle, almost hidden insult! Perhaps he did not recognize the concept of irony or understand the idea of a rhetorical question!


Yeah, but didn't you take note? This civEngineer lady took a personality test that said she was logical.... sounds legit to me. /s
Looking at the top of her list of "reasons", it is safe to say that she falls under the "conspiracy theorist" umbrella and even goes so far to project that all deniers think that way. That's fringe territory even for that group isn't it?

civ, you have the burden of proof for your implied claim that the US government is fabricating over 200 years of findings from an international group of scientists.... I wish you good luck.

Edit: I just read Xyrus2000's response... he needs an award of some kind. I wish I could give his comments on here in multiples of 10's
Quoting 55. Dakster:

A C02 spike, warmest temperatures since measurements begans, and that spike in the greenland ice sheet melt... All kinda concerning. Is this the start that tipping point where we fall off the cliff?
perhaps its next in line to occur sooner than later

Quoting 443. islander101010 (from the previous blog entry discussion):
On the colored water vapor seems there is flow of moisture moving onshore western Costa Rica and Panama coming out of the warm El Nino waters. a flow like this could also help increase moisture in the western Caribbean
Our dry season pattern in Western Panama has broken down, and we got 1/2" of rain from that flow a couple of days ago. It looks like we may get more rain here at 3,200' elevation in Boquete today. There is significant convection visible down the mountain to the south and southwest, but no distant thunder yet.

We are in a multi-year drier pattern now, and the Panama Canal 300 miles to my east has had to reduce lock operations due to low water levels in Lake Gatun. Hopefully, we will get rain soon that will help when the new wider locks go into operation for the first time to handle larger ships,
Quoting 81. science101:





No, as an engineer we design to withstand and not collapse but never fail safe. No building in California will withstand a direct hit from "the big one" because to engineer a fail safe would bankrupt the development.
Maybe Keep... If it does happen soon and quick, maybe it'll smack some sense into people. Can't keep going the way we are for many reasons.

My main philosophy is creating a cleaner and better world regardless of how it affects the temperature or climate. My favorite quote is on that cartoon that says "What if we created a better world for nothing?"

On the issue of severe weather for parts of the US next week, you can see a portion of the jet, currently over the Pacific, starting to take the dive in, so to speak, towards the US that will interact with the forecast lows; SPC has nailed down some pretty impressive longer term convective forecasts recently (in the 3-5 day term) that have panned out so chances are good that we may see some tornadoes spin up next week:







Quoting 77. 19N81W:

does anyone know where the forecasts come from on the site?
reason why I ask is in my location it says that at this hour we will have 100% rain.
there is literally not a cloud in the sky other than some high cirrus.



I'm not sure which computer model Wunderground uses to make its forecasts. Their forecast doesn't match the NWS forecast. Wunderground gives Miami Beach a 20% chance of rain for Friday. The NWS gives Miami Beach a 40% chance of rain.

That is an interesting question. Which computer model (or combination of models) does Wunderground use for its forecasts.

And on some occasions, their forecasts are not updated in a timely manner to keep up with the actual weather conditions.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING INDIANAPOLIS IN - KIND 509 PM EDT THU APR 21 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING BROWNSVILLE TX - KBRO 358 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING BROWNSVILLE TX - KBRO 312 PM CDT THU APR 21 2016
Quoting 83. civEngineer:


Even here in California the future of agriculture is in micro management of the soil. Nothing aside from cover crops is grown even here with out soil amendments or fertilization. Production yield has been increased significantly through micro irrigation and subterranean irrigation/fertilization. So long as the animals of the world are answering natures call the crops will get what they need, and there is no reason to think it cannot be achieved in the norther states as well.
Also under the hypothetical that AGW is so significant that farming production not meeting demand in the lower states, I would assume at that point frosty nights in mid summer in the northern states would be a thing of the past.


Yeah. If 30N to 40N is lost to agriculture and 60N to 70N is gained it.s a large net loss because the area between the former (lost) is much larger than the area between the latter (gained). Corn yields drop sharply when average temperatures go much above 80F (nights staying in the 70s and days getting into the 90s) even when
rainfall is adequate, more carbohydrates are needed for plant respiration and less surplus is available for ears.
Beans are very sensitive.. a few degrees C (5F) increase in night temperatures could make it impossible to grow them in the southeast U.S. I'm waiting, not optimistically, for the exceptionally hot summer where pollination failure on a massive scale wipes out that crop south of say 40N. I've already seen this happen with lima beans in the DC urban heat island, 2010-2013 so far confined to city and suburbs.
Everyone have a safe weather afternoon and will see Yall tomorrow; here is the forecast for Friday:




Quoting 76. Xyrus2000:

So with an extinction level crisis before us, why aren't there more people, yourself included, demanding nuclear power? Why isn't the major theme of the Climate change crowd? "Hey its about to hit the fan, if we don't do something major... what can we all agree on that we can actually do...oh look nuclear power" You'll get zero opposition to it from the political right.

This has been my ultimate point, either we're serious about it or we're not.
Quoting 95. weathermanwannabe:

Everyone have a safe weather afternoon and will see Yall tomorrow; here is the forecast for Friday:




Wait.. what? I'm not too sure about this forecast, dude.

Quoting 83. civEngineer:



Also under the hypothetical that AGW is so significant that farming production not meeting demand in the lower states, I would assume at that point frosty nights in mid summer in the northern states would be a thing of the past.

We're not talking about the "northern states".  They are already frost-free from May-September.  They are already fully farmed.  Substituting apples in New York with oranges won't increase the total food supplies.  That requires new, currently unfarmed, land and the only places that exists is Northern Canada and Siberia.  And the soil there is poor and even in a 5degC warmer world, some years would have a frost.

Your plan is not viable.  You've built your edifice on a faulty foundation.  Rip your plan up and start over.


Quoting 87. civEngineer:


No, as an engineer we design to withstand and not collapse but never fail safe. No building in California will withstand a direct hit from "the big one" because to engineer a fail safe would bankrupt the development.

Chile had a cat 9 a few years ago with minimal casualties. 

Anyway, the point is you are unwilling to do anything at all to reduce carbon emissions on the unproven (in fact completely unsupported) hypothesis that some future humans can solve all the problems. 

I ask again, what is your objection to a good-faith effort to reduce emissions? You have given up before the game has even started. 

Quoting 98. science101:





Fully farmed? I beg to differ. Also, converting hops and forage crops to potatoes would vastly increase food supplies. Plus I hear the future is in some bacon flavored sea weed, and I doesn't increased temperature promote algae growth? Guess I'm just full of solutions.
I'm just curious in that maybe the volcano that erupted in Alaska might have something to do with the sharp rise in co2 levels in Hawaii...

R.I.P.
Quoting 99. science101:






Not sure if you've seen that I am a big fan of nuclear energy which pretty sure there isn't a better at least short term solution to reducing emissions on a massive scale... so i'm not sure why you would say that I am unwilling to reduce emissions... but okay.

Chile had a Cat 9 minimal casualties... what is your point? That Chile has a sparse population near the epicenter?
105. vis0

Just saw commnet#28 on this blogbyte.
So Relaxing and chill to read the reactions to the end of the World as we might know it here on the blog tonight.
How some people react to "REALITY!"

Anyway I was in the heights of the Eastern Sierra Nevada mountains of Southern SPAIN today not the ones in the USA and there was virtually no SNOW.
It is of course only the 21st of April and snow sometimes used to stay on the ground, or rocks or what ever you want to call it all summer.
Well it, (The Snow,) is about gone now and although the skies are crystal blue it wont be long before the smoke from forest fires make a few changes to that?



Link

So good to hear and see on here that there are still a few people who think or write that we are talking or writing Rubbish. Well some of us/them/you, young enough, will see.
Now over to the attackers for their response?
I wont get to read it until at least tomorrow, as its midnight here in Europe and bed time for us pensioners.

Thanks for the blog and all the comments so far.

Quoting 94. georgevandenberghe:



Yeah. If 30N to 40N is lost to agriculture and 60N to 70N is gained it.s a large net loss because the area between the former (lost) is much larger than the area between the latter (gained). Corn yields drop sharply when average temperatures go much above 80F (nights staying in the 70s and days getting into the 90s) even when
rainfall is adequate, more carbohydrates are needed for plant respiration and less surplus is available for ears.
Beans are very sensitive.. a few degrees C (5F) increase in night temperatures could make it impossible to grow them in the southeast U.S. I'm waiting, not optimistically, for the exceptionally hot summer where pollination failure on a massive scale wipes out that crop south of say 40N. I've already seen this happen with lima beans in the DC urban heat island, 2010-2013 so far confined to city and suburbs.


Seeing as I live in the 60N-70N... The soil here is weird too. Not like what you see in the 30N-40N area.

I also wonder about how the extra daylight here will affect plants not used to it. Growing 1000 lb pumpkins and cabbages is great for the state fair, but I am sure it doesn't taste as good as the smaller ones. Certain things grow OK during our 90 day growing season, but even if temps would rise, not sure everything would like that much light.
Quoting 67. civEngineer:



Thank you for your emotional reply and while logical based on pretentious premises. One example (just off the top of my head) would be to grow say tomatoes in eastern washington/oregon/idaho where we are unable to now because it is just slightly too cold. By the by, the north may have shorter winter days but they also have longer summer days, most crops have a germination to harvest of less than 120 days. Your argument seems to be that all these people would be displaced in a short amount of time but the sea levels suggest that it will be over the course of decades so yeah I don't see an issue with moving people inland. Moreover I look forward to fishing in the awesome reefs that would be created by the current buildings in the San Francisco bay area. Furthermore, your arguments also stipulate that we would be unable to continue to grow crops in the lower states which wouldn't be true, perhaps not the same crops or the same production as we are now but where there's water and sun crops will grow.
I thought engineers were familiar with math...

Did you do the math? Or are you ignoring your education and just speculating based on gross oversimplification of the issues without using any hard logic or critical thinking - simply because you dislike the U.S. government?

Did you consider the macro- and micro-economics of such adaptation measures?

Did you consider changing weather patterns that are likely to result from AGW/CC? How about the likely changes in longer-term drought and flood patterns, including the increase in intense and heavy-precipitation storms that are likely to occur in a more active and wetter atmosphere? This is a weather and climate blog, after all.

There seems to be only emotion and no science or engineering logic in your rants. Very interesting!




Quoting 47. civEngineer:


I personally don%u2019t see the rise of a few degrees in temperature as an end of the world catastrophic threat. If anything I see opportunity, if the seas rise people will move inland, and we will be able to develop crop land/species farther north than we are currently able to. People will adapt as it comes, we%u2019re pretty resilient like that, but this last paragraph is simply the opinion of one who is driven by logic alone according to a recent personality test.


People are very adaptable, and I agree with you that people will ultimately adapt to a different climate. Regardless of how you define "an end of the world catastrophic threat," to ignore the potential suffering, chaos, and death that will surely accompany the displacement of millions of people due to rising sea levels (not to mention the extinction of countless species of plants and animals) demonstrates to me a general lack of conscience more importantly than a strict adherence to logic.

Better, I think, to try to mitigate consequences while we can, than accept such potential dire consequences as "opportunity."
Quoting 103. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

R.I.P.

Yeah, it's too bad we can't actually listen to any of his music on i.e. youtube, due to (imho) overzealous copyright pursuit. But that's a discussion for another time, though. Prince was one of my earliest favorites, back in 1985. RIP symbol dude.
Quoting 102. Loduck:

I'm just curious in that maybe the volcano that erupted in Alaska might have something to do with the sharp rise in co2 levels in Hawaii...


I was thinking that too. However, the Volcano didn't erupt for that long and the wind was blowing away from Hawaii... It wouldn't be like the eruption event produced a large CO2 "cloud" over the sensor, it would have to be it released enough to alter the CO2 in the world. Just my SWAG on that thought.
"The lag in the climate response to a forcing is a sensitive function of equilibrium climate sensitivity, varying approximately as the square of the sensitivity, and it depends on the rate of heat exchange between the ocean's surface mixed layer and the deeper ocean. The lag could be as short as a decade, if climate sensitivity is as small as 1/4degC per W/m2 of forcing, but it is a century or longer if climate sensitivity is 1deg.C per W/m2 or larger. Evidence from Earth's history and climate models suggests that climate sensitivity is 3/4 plus or minus 1/4 degC per W/m2, implying that 25-50 years are needed for Earth's surface temperature to reach 60 percent of its equilibrium response."

Hansen et al. (2004)

Let's just take that in...

CO2 is now at 408ppm, and we're now seeing profound and even accelerating changes in the atmosphere, hydrosphere and cryosphere.

But the current system responses are not the result of the current 408ppm CO2 in the atmosphere - instead they are mainly the consequences of forcings from GHG emissions in the 1960's to 1980's, plus some incompletely realized effects from all subsequent emissions.

Perhaps we're heading through the guardrail now, and we're in a car that has a decades-long lag in its response to the steering wheel.
Quoting 107. Dakster:



Seeing as I live in the 60N-70N... The soil here is weird too. Not like what you see in the 30N-40N area.

I also wonder about how the extra daylight here will affect plants not used to it. Growing 1000 lb pumpkins and cabbages is great for the state fair, but I am sure it doesn't taste as good as the smaller ones. Certain things grow OK during our 90 day growing season, but even if temps would rise, not sure everything would like that much light.

I think I saw a study form PG&E that 10% of all california's electricicty goes to growing certain plants under UV lamps; at least those said plants seem to do very well under 24 hr light
Quoting 65. ProphetessofDoom:



Thank you! This blogger also apparently believed that in my reliance upon logic, (which, in my opinion is better than paranoid hysteria)I might not have the emotional intelligence to recognize his subtle, almost hidden insult! Perhaps he did not recognize the concept of irony or understand the idea of a rhetorical question!


Its not paranoia if they really are out to get you.

Its true, I saw it on You Tube.

Quoting 112. no1der:

"The lag in the climate response to a forcing is a sensitive function of equilibrium climate sensitivity, varying approximately as the square of the sensitivity, and it depends on the rate of heat exchange between the ocean’s surface mixed layer and the deeper ocean. The lag could be as short as a decade, if climate sensitivity is as small as 1⁄4°C per W/m2 of forcing, but it is a century or longer if climate sensitivity is 1°C per W/m2 or larger. Evidence from Earth’s history and climate models suggests that climate sensitivity is 3⁄4 ± 1⁄4 °C per W/m2, implying that 25-50 years are needed for Earth’s surface temperature to reach 60 percent of its equilibrium response."

Hansen at al. (2004)

Let's just take that in...

CO2 is now at 408ppm, and we're now seeing profound and even accelerating changes in the atmosphere, hydrosphere and cryosphere. 

But the current system responses are not the result of the current 408ppm CO2 in the atmosphere, they are mainly the consequences of forcings from GHG emissions in the 1960's to 1980's, plus some incompletely realized effects from all subsequent emissions.

Perhaps we're heading through the guardrail now, but we're in a car that has a decades-long response to the steering wheel.



Yep...All the results are not in, but data suggests that C02 may remain up to 3 times as long as previously thought.....Not too comforting...
Quoting 112. no1der:

"The lag in the climate response to a forcing is a sensitive function of equilibrium climate sensitivity, varying approximately as the square of the sensitivity, and it depends on the rate of heat exchange between the ocean’s surface mixed layer and the deeper ocean. The lag could be as short as a decade, if climate sensitivity is as small as 1⁄4°C per W/m2 of forcing, but it is a century or longer if climate sensitivity is 1°C per W/m2 or larger. Evidence from Earth’s history and climate models suggests that climate sensitivity is 3⁄4 ± 1⁄4 °C per W/m2, implying that 25-50 years are needed for Earth’s surface temperature to reach 60 percent of its equilibrium responseHansen at al. (2004)
Let's just take that in..CO2 is now at 408ppm, and we're now seeing profound and even accelerating changes in the atmosphere, hydrosphere and cryosphere.But the current system responses are not the result of the current 408ppm CO2 in the atmosphere, they are mainly the consequences of forcings from GHG emissions in the 1960's to 1980's, plus some incompletely realized effects from all subsequent emissions.Perhaps we're heading through the guardrail now, but we're in a car that has a decades-long response to the steering wheel


There are those who seem to realize this and they all seem to be working on space travel, robotics and personality digitization
Quoting 78. Astrometeor:

Semester is going fine, I think I have all Bs in my classes. We had DOW6 on campus for three weeks, so that was pretty sweet. We had that tornado in the county back in February....strange. Now it's warm, but not warm enough for a southern kid to wear shorts. Everyone else is...I'm still in a jacket though. :/



Yup. Flute, recorder (for a year) and concert percussion. Lol. They start music teaching early, we consider it important to a child's success later on.
Its importance cannot be put into words...I started with a french horn in 6th grade. I agree, its still chilly in the morning....was 42 here morning before last.
119. 882MB
First of all, let me start of by saying, what a year it has been for the S-PAC islands, Fiji, and now American Samoa, is bracing for Amos. Amos passed through Fiji as a disturbance bringing heavy rains to an area already saturated and ravaged by Winston. On the other hand, we have Fantala, which its track has been really something else passing over some areas over 2 to 3 times, mainly over water but those very small islands, and archipelagos, have taken a battering, but still imagine it would of been much worse if those tiny islands were more populated. Does anyone know how much people are living in those small islands North of Madagascar?

Fantala





Amos



15 images that show how climate change has affected this slowly vanishing island

Courtney Verrill


Ghoramara Island is in the delta area of the Sundarbans, which meets the Indian Ocean.


Quoting 111. Dakster:



I was thinking that too. However, the Volcano didn't erupt for that long and the wind was blowing away from Hawaii... It wouldn't be like the eruption event produced a large CO2 "cloud" over the sensor, it would have to be it released enough to alter the CO2 in the world. Just my SWAG on that thought.

You have to take into account that in order for the CO2 monitor to record the CO2 it has to be in the immediate zone of the sensors and Alaska is a long way to the north of Hawaii.
By the time the CO2 from the eruption or in fact any eruption and we have had quite a few recently in Mexico and even in Sicily has reached Hawaii, the CO2 will have been diluted by the atmosphere as a whole.
What I understand they are measuring in Hawaii is the CO2 in the on-going movement of air through their sensors on at least a daily basis.
The CO2 as a percentage fraction of the atmosphere is rising and its almost a 100% probability that Human activity is causing this rise.
Prince Rogers Nelson..

To hear of his death today and with Purple Rain on repeat on my Iphone I can say Im truly heartbroken right now.

Today's generation music can't hold a candle to what I consider is real music and of my generation which was what Prince represented

He was talented as a Singer, Musician and Activist.

Icon Forever.

If anyone is interested MTV actually went back to the format of Music Television and have interrupted their shows for non stop videos of Prince..

RIP
40 days till the official start of the hurricane season and lots of people have been telling here that 870 mb monster wouldn t surprise them...well I wouldn t be surprised If MDR would be completely shut down for any tropical action, just look at that...doesn t look like positive AMO to me.

Ian Livingston ‏@islivingston 5h5 hours ago
GFS just a train of western troughs and svr weather episodes. Haven't seen runs like this in a while. (500mb wind)
I think the Indian Ocean still looks super hot.
Plenty of room there for some bother with storms in the days and weeks to come.



Quoting 124. washingtonian115:

Ian Livingston ‏@islivingston 5h5 hours ago
GFS just a train of western troughs and svr weather episodes. Haven't seen runs like this in a while. (500mb wind)
Yep.
Quoting 123. NoobDave:

40 days till the official start of the hurricane season and lots of people have been telling here that 870 mb monster wouldn t surprise them...well I wouldn t be surprised If MDR would be completely shut down for any tropical action, just look at that...doesn t look like positive AMO to me.


Wilma had nothing to do with the MDR.
Quoting 129. weathergirl2001:

Wilma had nothing to do with the MDR.
I'm more worried about homegrown activity than cape verde activity....
131. SLU
This should help to get the off rail discussions back on tangent.

Quoting 123. NoobDave:

40 days till the official start of the hurricane season and lots of people have been telling here that 870 mb monster wouldn t surprise them...well I wouldn t be surprised If MDR would be completely shut down for any tropical action, just look at that...doesn t look like positive AMO to me.



Well, 2015 had similar conditions at this point. The MDR managed to warm up substantially in August and September - resulting in only a slightly below normal season despite one of the strongest El Ninos on record. Oddly, the NOAA SST map shows above-average SST anomalies in the same region.

Quoting 113. civEngineer:


I think I saw a study form PG&E that 10% of all california's electricicty goes to growing certain plants under UV lamps; at least those said plants seem to do very well under 24 hr light

Your views on the topic of  climate suggest you ought to cut down on your consumption of those plants.

Quoting 69. civEngineer:



Just matching the thinly veiled contempt from your original post. I find it sexist that you assume I am a man.

You're right! I was wrong to assume your gender! My apologies for that! What I Will NOT apologize for is questioning an individual who constantly falls back on the construct of religion to support views that have consistently proven to be incorrect. Under most circumstances, these are the same people who use their religion to justify ignorance, bigotry, and hatred, as well as impede scientific and social progress.





Quoting 119. 882MB:

Does anyone know how much people are living in those small islands North of Madagascar?

This morning Skyepony posted a quite detailed report about the situation on that Faquhar islands north of Madagascar after/with Fantala: link (post #422). Nature is devastated; couple of folks living there are more or less safe though.


Fantala today. Quite a comeback. Source. But this little eye popped out just for a short time, if I get this right.
Quoting 131. SLU:

This should help to get the off rail discussions back on tangent.


Rolling into that time again.
Quoting 136. Climate175:

Looks like an early start to the season there once again.
And over here on this side as well.GFS has been showing a ghost storm north of the Bahamas on and off for the past week.
123.

A) I haven't a single clue where you're getting that from. I haven't seen a single post on here suggesting anyone believes we'll see a sub 870mb hurricane this season.

B) It wouldn't from the MDR. It would probably develop in the western Caribbean or GOMEX.
Here's a very interesting article that tries to explain why most Americans don't rank climate change as a major issue.  The authors, Patrick Egan of NYU and Megan Mullin of Duke, examined the changes since 1975 weighting for where most people lived, on a county-by-county basis.  They report that for 80% of the population, the climate has become more pleasant  in the last 40 years. Winter daily maxima have increased about 1.04degF, while summer daily maxima have barely changed at all (0.13degF) and summers have become less humid (I have certainly noticed this in the Northeast). 

They point out that the continued warming will soon make the climate much less pleasant, but for the moment it has had the opposite effect.

The article is here http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/24/opinion/sunday/g lobal-warming-feels-quite-pleasant.html?action=cli ck&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-headi ng&module=opinion-c-col-right-region&regio n=opinion-c-col-right-region&WT.nav=opinion-c- col-right-region
Hi, Justmehouston.

A lot of folks today are wondering what the forecast looks like for next week and (actually into) early May. The Global models and their ensembles are advertising a generally unsettled pattern will continue with a series of cold upper lows/troughs continuing to drop SE out of the Gulf of Alaska even into the longer range. Anytime a continued late season snow chance is seen continuing across the Southern/Central Rockies, dynamic storm complexes are possible in the warm sector. So far there is not any indication of a QPF bomb like the pro mets were seeing as early as early last week. (good to know). I hope they will continue to monitor the guidance particularly close due to the Widespread Historic Flood event that is ongoing across our Region.

Oh, one more thing. There is (pro mets say) some potential for stronger storms on Sunday--but this may be limited due to lack of a real surface focus.

What do you think, Justmehouston?
Tuesday is looking like one of 'those' days, with the potential for long-lived and violent tornadoes. Everyone across the Central and South Plains needs to be weather aware.

Two months after cyclone, Fiji needs aid to stave off hunger, disease - UN
Source: Thomson Reuters Foundation - Thu, 21 Apr 2016 11:25 GMT

India crippled by extreme weather as 100 million exposed to floods
Ranked top in a list of populations most at risk from natural disasters, India must find solutions to make its economy less exposed
The Guardian, Thursday 21 April 2016 03.00 BST

Study reveals greater climate impacts of 2C temperature rise
Analysis of difference between 1.5C and 2C of warming finds extra 0.5C would mean longer heatwaves, greater droughts and threats to crops and coral reefs
The Guardian, Thursday 21 April 2016 13.00 BST
A difference of half a degree centigrade may be barely noticeable day to day, but the difference between 1.5C and 2C of global warming is a shift into a new, more dangerous climate regime, according to the first comprehensive analysis of the issue. ....
Link to the study the article is about.

Attention Turns to 'Extremely High Risk' Dams in Houston After Flooding Kills 8; Mandatory Evacuations Ordered in Wharton
TWC, Published: Apr 21 2016 10:45 AM EDT

Flooding dampens hopes for Uruguay ag inputs market
"Widespread flooding" in parts of Uruguay, from the same front inundating Argentina, have prompted PGG Wrightson to evacuate a seed factory, and have cast a shadow over upcoming farm input sales too.
19:42 UK, 20th Apr 2016, by Agrimoney.com

Using Clouds to Map Life
NASA Earth Observatory, April 22, 2016

With these random weather and climate news a good night from Germany which experienced a truly beautiful day of spring while some really cold days are ahead - beware, blossoms!

Quoting 132. HurricaneFan:


Oddly, the NOAA SST map shows above-average SST anomalies in the same region.


Very weird indeed. The SST anomaly pattern is pretty much the same except for the portion of the MDR in the Atlantic:





NOAA is showing above average temps whilst the CDAS is showing below average temps in large parts of the MDR in the Atlantic. I suspect there's some kind of error in one of the data sets?
Quoting 137. washingtonian115:

And over here on this side as well.GFS has been showing a ghost storm north of the Bahamas on and off for the past week.
Yea, it'll be interesting to see what goes down.
Patrap Jr. sent me this within the last 5 minutes as he is Southbound at the I-12 I-55 Junction heading south on 55 now. That squall line is off to His right or east,moving His way.

He using His wu app radar.




Quoting 101. civEngineer:


Fully farmed? I beg to differ. Also, converting hops and forage crops to potatoes would vastly increase food supplies. Plus I hear the future is in some bacon flavored sea weed, and I doesn't increased temperature promote algae growth? Guess I'm just full of solutions.


Out here in the Lahontan Basin, you can't grow much beyond forage crops or harvest salt. One alfalfa grower had to treat his fields with sulfuric acid to bring the pH down enough to grow anything.

On the positive side, I'm starting to wonder if the climate shifts will bring us more precip - most of our water is irrigation from over the Eastern Sierra, courtesy of Truckee-Carson Irrigation District. Still we can expect wind-driven freezer burns and frosts all the way into the first week of June.

I'm curious of the effect of La Nina - nothing seems terribly predictable now.
Quoting 127. Mediarologist:

Sometimes it Snows in April

Here ya go. :)



If this is a forecast map, the National Weather service begs to differ, a lot.
Quoting 152. ACSeattle:


If this is a forecast map, the National Weather service begs to differ, a lot.


Indeed, I mean who would think we on a weather site could actually see a upper mid-west fo'cast here.

La Crosse, WI wu page
East | Report | Change Station
Report Station

Wind
Forecast



Quoting 152. ACSeattle:


If this is a forecast map, the National Weather service begs to differ, a lot.


Disclaimer: not a real current weather map :)
155. beell
Quoting 142. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Tuesday is looking like one of 'those' days, with the potential for long-lived and violent tornadoes. Everyone across the Central and South Plains needs to be weather aware.




I think that is the first SHARPpy model sounding I've seen from COD carrying a "PDS" hazard type (although there probably have been some since the switch).

Since TA left it out, this point sounding is about 40 miles west of Ponca City in north central OK-Tuesday afternoon @ 7PM local.
:)
A Death of Beauty — Climate Change is Bleaching the Great Barrier Reef Out of Existence

Extinction.


It’s a hard, tough thing to consider. One of those possibilities people justifiably do not want to talk about. This notion that a creature we’re fond of and familiar with — a glorious living being along with all its near and distant relatives — could be entirely removed from the web of existence here on Earth.

Our aversion to the topic likely stems from our own fear of death. Or worse — the notion that the entire human race might eventually be faced with such an end. But extinction is a threat that we’ll see arising more and more as we force the world to rapidly warm. For species of the world now face existential crisis with increasing frequency as atmospheric and ocean temperatures have risen so fast that a growing number of them have simply become unable to cope with the heat.


Link
109. gunhilda
9:56 PM GMT on April 21, 2016
3 +
Quoting 47. civEngineer:


I personally don%u2019t see the rise of a few degrees in temperature as an end of the world catastrophic threat. If anything I see opportunity, if the seas rise people will move inland, and we will be able to develop crop land/species farther north than we are currently able to. People will adapt as it comes, we%u2019re pretty resilient like that, but this last paragraph is simply the opinion of one who is driven by logic alone according to a recent personality test.


People are very adaptable, and I agree with you that people will ultimately adapt to a different climate. Regardless of how you define "an end of the world catastrophic threat," to ignore the potential suffering, chaos, and death that will surely accompany the displacement of millions of people due to rising sea levels (not to mention the extinction of countless species of plants and animals) demonstrates to me a general lack of conscience more importantly than a strict adherence to logic.

Better, I think, to try to mitigate consequences while we can, than accept such potential dire consequences as "opportunity."

My son is a Civil Engineer, aside from infrastructure problems, he expects coastline change will keep him busy until retirement...as I have posted before, the prime mover of this civilization is energy... We use 1,000,000 tons of coal per Hour and 3,000,000 barrels of oil per Hour on Earth...That is a heap of Joules...Most likely the only “clean” technology energetically possible as a substitute resides in the unacknowledged special access programs developed over the last 70 years covertly...As Ben Rich once said “it would take an act of God” for them to be acknowledged...
Visit my blog for a complete list of articles in comment #551. Article especially for Cody in comment #553.

Idealized Tropical Cyclone Responses to the Height and Depth of Environmental Vertical Wind Shear
Quoting 127. Mediarologist:

Sometimes it Snows in April

Here ya go. :)




Snow is common to general in Minnesota in April. A band about 40 miles SE of Minneapolis had its fourth heaviest snowfall for ANY time of year in early May 2013.
Quoting 111. Dakster:



I was thinking that too. However, the Volcano didn't erupt for that long and the wind was blowing away from Hawaii... It wouldn't be like the eruption event produced a large CO2 "cloud" over the sensor, it would have to be it released enough to alter the CO2 in the world. Just my SWAG on that thought.
Well Mauna Loa has been getting more active lately. Maybe that's the reason for the spike?


Melting Arctic ice is forcing polar bears to swim for more than a week without rest

In September 2009, after a summer of warm weather and dwindling ice, a young polar bear slipped into the frigid waters of the Beaufort Sea and began to swim.

She didn’t stop for food or rest until nine days later, when she finally encountered a slab of sea ice large enough to sustain her. The journey was some 250 miles.


Link


Quoting 160. Geoboy645:

Well Mauna Loa has been getting more active lately. Maybe that's the reason for the spike?
How do scientists know that Mauna Loa's volcanic emissions don't affect the carbon dioxide data collected there?

"Most of the time, the observatory experiences "baseline" conditions and measures clean air which has been over the Pacific Ocean for days or weeks. We know this because the CO2 analyzer usually gives a very steady reading which varies by less than 3/10 of a part per million (ppm) from hour to hour. These are the conditions we use to calculate the monthly averages that go into the famous 50-year graph of atmospheric CO2 concentration.

We only detect volcanic CO2 from the Mauna Loa summit late at night at times when the regional winds are light and southerly. Under these conditions, a temperature inversion forms above the ground, and the volcanic emissions are trapped near the surface and travel down our side of the mountain slope. When the volcanic emissions arrive at the observatory, the CO2 analyzer readings increase by several parts per million, and the measured amounts become highly variable for periods of several minutes to a few hours. In the last decade, this has occurred on about 15% of nights between midnight and 6 a.m.



These periods of elevated and variable CO2 levels are so different from the typical measurements that is easy to remove them from the final data set using a simple mathematical filter."
Quoting 123. NoobDave:

40 days till the official start of the hurricane season and lots of people have been telling here that 870 mb monster wouldn t surprise them...well I wouldn t be surprised If MDR would be completely shut down for any tropical action, just look at that...doesn t look like positive AMO to me.




SSTs will always be at least 27 degrees C below 20N and W of 40W. Shear and dry air are a bigger issue but La Nina will help ;)
Quoting 160. Geoboy645:

Well Mauna Loa has been getting more active lately. Maybe that's the reason for the spike
Not so

Activity Summary: Mauna Loa is not erupting. There have been no significant changes in seismicity recorded beneath Mauna Loa during the past week. Seismicity remains elevated above the long-term background level, as shallow earthquakes continue to occur mostly beneath Mauna Loa's upper Southwest Rift Zone at depths of less than 5 km (3 mi). Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements show continued deformation related to inflation of a magma reservoir beneath the summit and upper Southwest Rift Zone, with inflation recently occurring mainly in the southwestern part of the magma storage complex.
Quoting 142. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Tuesday is looking like one of 'those' days, with the potential for long-lived and violent tornadoes. Everyone across the Central and South Plains needs to be weather aware.


Was on the phone saying those same exact words (bolded) to someone when I read your comment.
Thanks for dogging it.
Quoting 120. Patrap:

15 images that show how climate change has affected this slowly vanishing island

Courtney Verrill


Ghoramara Island is in the delta area of the Sundarbans, which meets the Indian Ocean.



I have lived in Central Florida for 30 years and have fished the oceans/piers/surf in that time and have not noticed any sea level rise. Please explain
Explain?

Please,,do your own search for easy info..as your local water level History info for rivers,and Ocean are easily found.

If you cant find that, how can make us who know, care?

See what I did here?

Semper Fi'
Go to Miami Beach... New high water marks are set often. HUGE pumps to try and keep the ocean out.

I don't remember King tides doing that on Miami beach when I was a lot younger, so either the oceans have risen or the ground has sunk.

Don't know about Central Florida coasts though. Only started going up there 5 years or so ago often enough to be able to compare.
Quoting 168. Patrap:

Explain?

Please,,do your own search for easy info..as your local water level History info for rivers,and Ocean are easily found.

If you cant find that, how can make us who know, care?

See what I did here?

Semper Fi'

How about real time real life observation? Does that mean anything? I've stood on the same rocks at Ponce Inlet south Jetty for 30 years. If there has been such drastic sea level rise then it cannot be possible that i have stood on the same rocks at ocean level for 30 years. They would have been covered up and unreachable if the sea has risen so drastically
172. OKsky
Quoting 171. sanflee76:


How about real time real life observation? Does that mean anything? I've stood on the same rocks at Ponce Inlet south Jetty for 30 years. If there has been such drastic sea level rise then it cannot be possible that i have stood on the same rocks at ocean level for 30 years. They would have been covered up and unreachable if the sea has risen so drastically


You mean as in unscientifically guessing without actually measuring or recording or doing anything that allows others to double check your methods? Yeah... meaningless.

Edit: (why do i keep doing the post-edits?...sry) That came off a little harsh, but what you described is exactly why science is such a big deal. In pre-science history we thought that personal observation was good enough and we remained largely in the dark for that entire time...surely you know that though. Anyways, its nothing personal... we all suck and have always sucked as "observers" without some sort of rigorous methodology applied.
Quoting 171. sanflee76:


How about real time real life observation? Does that mean anything? I've stood on the same rocks at Ponce Inlet south Jetty for 30 years. If there has been such drastic sea level rise then it cannot be possible that i have stood on the same rocks at ocean level for 30 years. They would have been covered up and unreachable if the sea has risen so drastically


Your eyeball is not a valid measuring device for sea level rise. Observation data from both satellite and tidal gauges are easily searchable online. Sea level rise is not uniform across the oceans and is not linear. There are multiple reports on Florida using a simple Google search. I suggest starting there.
Sea level rise denial is really my favorite. It means that you deny that water expands as it warms and you deny that land ice is melting. It's like a two for one, very efficient.
Quoting:
How about real time real life observation? Does that mean anything? I've stood on the same rocks at Ponce Inlet south Jetty for 30 years. If there has been such drastic sea level rise then it cannot be possible that i have stood on the same rocks at ocean level for 30 years. They would have been covered up and unreachable if the sea has risen so drastically


Here's a picture from a site called Wikipedia in their article appropriately entitled "Sea Level Rise":

Link here because the blog won't let me put the image here.

As you can see the average rise, worldwide, over the past 30 years, is claimed to be something like 2 to 3 inches. Your argument seems to be against the claim that sea levels have already dramatically risen, on the order of feet or even meters. The only issue there is that no one is claiming that, so that's what you call a straw man that you have set up and then said "defend this here ridiculous notion!"

The actual claim being made by many scientists is that dramatic rises are surely coming, in the near future, and in fact a certain amount of sea level rise is already guaranteed. The claim is not that the sea level has already risen drastically, although it most definitely has risen.


A deadly tornado rips through the small city of Dolores in southwestern Uruguay on 4/15/2016 killing four and leaving hundreds injured.Link
Quoting 171. sanflee76:


How about real time real life observation? Does that mean anything? I've stood on the same rocks at Ponce Inlet south Jetty for 30 years. If there has been such drastic sea level rise then it cannot be possible that i have stood on the same rocks at ocean level for 30 years. They would have been covered up and unreachable if the sea has risen so drastically
Thats like looking into the night sky and saying there are only a 1000 stars and thats all there ever was.
Before and After Tornado caught by a Security Camera inside a Shoe Store
in the city of Dolores, Uruguay. This tornado left 4 deaths and
hundreds of injured. 4/15/2016 (Copy and Paste the URL to see the video) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aih9YF4yuQY

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eWQTyl5LDKo (Copy and Paste the URL to see the video) 4/21/2016 The Guarenas River in Petare overflowed and drag the cars on
the streets, a lot of them with people inside. Petare is a city in
Miranda, Venezuela, and is part of the urban area of Caracas.
Quoting 181. WeatherfanPR:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eWQTyl5LDKo (Copy and Paste the URL to see the video) 4/21/2016 The Guarenas River in Petare overflowed and drag the cars on
the streets, a lot of them with people inside. Petare is a city in
Miranda, Venezuela, and is part of the urban area of Caracas.


That's quite dramatic. I wonder what happened to those people.
Perhaps this is where the unaccounted carbon came from?
http://www.desdemonadespair.net/.../fires-destroy -13...
Quoting 83. civEngineer:


Even here in California the future of agriculture is in micro management of the soil. Nothing aside from cover crops is grown even here with out soil amendments or fertilization. Production yield has been increased significantly through micro irrigation and subterranean irrigation/fertilization.


Look at what your listing. Large scale irrigation and fertilization. Building the infrastructure to sustain it. Even IF you could find a comparable chunk of arable land and even IF modern crops could be modified to grow in conditions they've been exposed to, you're talking about migrating an agricultural infrastructure that's been built out over the course of a century. You really have no concept of how large the US agricultural output is and what it takes to sustain it.

And you're not going to find comparable land. It took thousands of years of glaciers peeling, carving and grinding rocks and organic material to produce the deep a nutrient topsoils we enjoy in our major agricultural areas. It took thousands of years more after the glaciers retreated before a healthy ecosystem formed to keep those soils in good condition. You seem to think that dropping a pile a dung and some seeds is all you need to grow enough food to feed 350 million people. It doesn't work that way.

Now let's talk about food crops. Just about every food crop we have has been tailor made to produce the best yields in the climate that existed last century. Heat stress tolerance, drought tolerance, soil tolerances, diurnal cycles, pest tolerance, disease resistance, just about every aspect that could be tweaked to maximize production. You'd have to be pretty naive to think moving said plants out of their optimal environment wouldn't have considerable negative impacts on production. It's like saying you can take a Lion and drop it in the arctic and expecting it to survive.

So long as the animals of the world are answering natures call the crops will get what they need, and there is no reason to think it cannot be achieved in the norther states as well.


There are actually plenty of reasons to think that it wouldn't work, of which a number have been provided by myself and others.

Also under the hypothetical that AGW is so significant that farming production not meeting demand in the lower states, I would assume at that point frosty nights in mid summer in the northern states would be a thing of the past.


And that will magically turn northern Minnesota into the new Iowa? How is that even remotely logical? Can the aquifers support major agriculture? Is the infrastructure there to support such operations? Can the soil support such operations? Can the plants tolerate environment and still produce similar yields? Will new invasive species migrate to the region that will render any operation problematic at best?

You have some serious misconceptions about agriculture, what is involved, and most importantly exactly how much climate change would affect it. We're not talking about growing tomatoes in your backyard.

Quoting 182. Mediarologist:



That's quite dramatic. I wonder what happened to those people.

They were saved.

186. Slayz
i would say its probably a combination of subsidence due to the weight of the city and higher sea levels .
Quoting 169. Dakster:

Go to Miami Beach... New high water marks are set often. HUGE pumps to try and keep the ocean out.

I don't remember King tides doing that on Miami beach when I was a lot younger, so either the oceans have risen or the ground has sunk.

Don't know about Central Florida coasts though. Only started going up there 5 years or so ago often enough to be able to compare.
Quoting 184. Xyrus2000:

You have some serious misconceptions about agriculture, what is involved, and most importantly exactly how much climate change would affect it.

As well as some serious misconceptions about climate change. Warming will not be uniform or monotonic. We can't simply add 2C to MN's temperature and say it will all be good. It won't. Temperatures will vary widely, as has been pointed out. But rainfall patterns will change, even in places where adding 2C might lead one to believe that agriculture might be viable in the future.

There are so many variables that will change that any claim that those variables will all line up in a just-so sort of way that will benefit us requires some pretty substantial evidence. That evidence doesn't exist at present, AFAIK.

Major adaptation might well be impossible when bread sells for $30/loaf and beer costs $300/case. It will be a very different world. Ironically, those who oppose AGW mitigation "because capitalism" are making it virtually certain that capitalism is going to become extinct in the not too distant future. People have a real liking for regular meals. When great numbers of people can't afford that, things get real ugly, real fast. That's likely to be even more true in a nation with over 300 million firearms in private hands.


Purple rain for us this morning... Nice touch from the WU gang.

prince rip
Drought and beer crisis at the same time:
Venezuela cuts power for four hours a day to save energy
BBC, 22 April 2016
Venezuela is introducing power cuts of four hours a day from next week to deal with a worsening energy crisis.
The cuts will last for 40 days as the country struggles under a severe drought limiting hydroelectric output.
It is the latest setback to Venezuela's economy which has been hit by a sharp fall in the price of its main export, oil.
The country's main brewer, Polar, also says it will stop production because it has no dollars to buy grain abroad.
The company, which produces 80% of the country's beer, says 10,000 workers will be affected by the stoppage. ...
Quoting 189. MahFL:



Even though Prince may have been using illegal drugs ?
Depends. If you're the black-and-white type of person who judges that a failing of any type automatically wipes out any and all good you may have done in your life, that it renders value-less your every contribution no matter how large or small, then, no, the WU "purple rain" logo probably seems somehow wrong to you.

On the other hand, an open-minded person understands that we're all human--that none of use are perfect, that we're all blemished in some way (or in many)--and can see beyond those failings. That's why we still read Hemingway, though he was a suicidal alcoholic; we still revere Poe though he was a heroin addict to the end; we still see and appreciate the artistic genius of people such as Joplin, Hendrix, Morrison, Jackson, Houston, Williams, and Elvis; we still appreciate the many contributions brought by Heath Ledger and Jack Kerouac and Alan Turing and Sigmund Freud and so on, and so on.

The WU "Purple Rain" isn't celebrating Prince's drug addiction; it's celebrating what he left behind for all of us. I hope that when I'm gone, people don't remember only my copious mistakes and missteps...
think when you go through providence thats in the checklist? doubt it. hes gone
Quoting 165. BaltimoreBrian:

Not so

Activity Summary: Mauna Loa is not erupting. There have been no significant changes in seismicity recorded beneath Mauna Loa during the past week. Seismicity remains elevated above the long-term background level, as shallow earthquakes continue to occur mostly beneath Mauna Loa's upper Southwest Rift Zone at depths of less than 5 km (3 mi). Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements show continued deformation related to inflation of a magma reservoir beneath the summit and upper Southwest Rift Zone, with inflation recently occurring mainly in the southwestern part of the magma storage complex.
Oh I thought that I read somewhere that it was getting more active. Nvm then.
i climbed mauna loa back in the 80s. talking about a long grueling walk. the lava tore up my boots.
Quoting 189. MahFL:



Even though Prince may have been using illegal drugs ?

There is no such thing.
Quoting 169. Dakster:

Go to Miami Beach... New high water marks are set often. HUGE pumps to try and keep the ocean out.

I don't remember King tides doing that on Miami beach when I was a lot younger, so either the oceans have risen or the ground has sunk.

Don't know about Central Florida coasts though. Only started going up there 5 years or so ago often enough to be able to compare.
Miami Beach is a barrier island, maybe that has something to do with it, to many people is the problem, and a nice cat 4 or 5 will help mother nature correct the problem.
Good Morning Folks.  Here is the Conus forecast for today, current look, and the flow of the Pacific Jet.  Closer today than it was yesterday as it continues to head in towards the US. That will be the flash point for the straight line winds and tornadic threat next Tuesday and Wednesday as that jet pushes over the Sierras and the Plains in towards the MS Valley Region and meets the warm Gulf flow in/near tornado alley.

   
And here is the forecast position of the jet on Tuesday and Wednesday at pushes into the TX Panhandle and MS Valley:


Tuesday
Animation of Jet Stream Forecasts
Wednesday
Animation of Jet Stream Forecasts
Adding bolding to make a point:
Quoting 189. MahFL:



Even though Prince may have been using illegal drugs ?


He may have been illegally coiffing gazelles, too. But I think we should have actual evidence before accusing people of illegal gazelle coiffing...or illegal drug use...or anything else.
In terms of the start of the E-Pac storm season on May 15th, things are starting to prime in that region with plenty of convection around the E-Pac ITCZ currently located across SA and Panama and further to the West South of Mexico and the Baja Peninsula region:





Quoting 172. OKsky:



You mean as in unscientifically guessing without actually measuring or recording or doing anything that allows others to double check your methods? Yeah... meaningless.

Edit: (why do i keep doing the post-edits?...sry) That came off a little harsh, but what you described is exactly why science is such a big deal. In pre-science history we thought that personal observation was good enough and we remained largely in the dark for that entire time...surely you know that though. Anyways, its nothing personal... we all suck and have always sucked as "observers" without some sort of rigorous methodology applied.
How much sea level rise are you talking about, as the ocean will rise more in some area's than others. From my personal observation from the dock on my back yard, their is little if any sea level rise in the South Florida area. When the pilings were installed for our dock 35 years ago, their were marks put on them for the dead low tide and the max high tide we received in the area at that time, some thing to do with the depth of the water for my dads boat at the time, guess what during the low tide the other day the water level was almost the same, but I do not know the exact date the pilings were put in, so maybe the time of year would make a difference. But to my somewhat untrained eyes it still looks like little to no rise in the ocean in my area. I wish I had a satellite in space so that I could get the correct reading like the government.
And finally the current doppler look and forecast into the weekend; the good news is that the Sierras are going to get some more snow pack over the weekend to help fill the reservoirs which supply water for the agriculture/live stock/people in the South California region. 
National Weather Outlook


Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
419 AM EDT Fri Apr 22 2016

Valid 12Z Fri Apr 22 2016 - 12Z Sun Apr 24 2016

...Heavy precipitation possible over parts of the Absaroka Range in
Montana...

...Heavy precipitation possible over parts of the Sierras...

A front extending from the Lower Great Lakes southward to the Western Gulf
Coast will slowly move off the East Coast mainly by Saturday morning.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the boundary
from the Ohio Valley to the Lower Mississippi Valley and the Western Gulf
Coast will move to parts of New England to the Southern Mid-Atlantic
Coast/Southeast Coast by Friday evening. The showers and thunderstorms
will move off the coast by Saturday morning.

Meanwhile, a deep upper-level low just off the Northwest Coast will move
inland to the Northern Rockies by Saturday evening. Rain will develop
along the Northwest Coast into Northern and Central California through
Saturday evening. As the system moves inland, rain with embedded
thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Northern Intermountain
Region/Northern Rockies by Friday evening that will expand into parts of
the Central Rockies and Northern High Plains by Saturday evening. Snow
will also develop over the highest elevations of the Northern/Central
Rockies and Sierras.
In addition, rain will develop over parts of the
Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes by Saturday afternoon into 

evening.  

204. beell
First guess at Tuesday's severe threat in and around the triple point. The stronger storms may hold off until well after sunset as the LLJ is modeled a bit on the weak side (AOA 30 knots) early Tuesday afternoon-still adequate for rotating storms. LLJ increases to 50 knots Tuesday evening. A well defined dryline in place Tuesday afternoon as a focus for storm initiation.


04/22 06Z GFS 2m dewpoint-Valid 7PM CDT Tuesday

Fits fairly well with what the SPC has been advertising for the last couple days.



And here is the Upper Level Low off the NW US coast that is going to sweep into the Central Plains early next week as noted in the discussion below:





We are coming out of a period when Earth had extremely low CO2 levels. Historically levels have been much higher than now. As recently as 250 million years ago they were 3,000 ppm and at times in the past 525 million years they have been as high as 5,000 ppm. And it's important to note that there were no people back then.

So we are not in "uncharted territory" as the article implies and the world is not going to end.
207. ariot
Quoting 206. Sandy82579:

We are coming out of a period when Earth had extremely low CO2 levels. Historically levels have been much higher than now. As recently as 250 million years ago they were 3,000 ppm and at times in the past 525 million years they have been as high as 5,000 ppm. And it's important to note that there were no people back then.


We have been acting as a collective climate force since at least 1800. In just 200 years, we have managed to do what previously took nature tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of years.

The interesting thing is that we have empirical data that proves we are a climate force. So we don't have to opine about deep time and natural climate forces that existed in various geological eras. We have proof. We should discuss that proof rather than dismiss it as the climate changed before on a time scale that most humans can't event comprehend.

Quoting 206. Sandy82579:

We are coming out of a period when Earth had extremely low CO2 levels. Historically levels have been much higher than now. As recently as 250 million years ago they were 3,000 ppm and at times in the past 525 million years they have been as high as 5,000 ppm. And it's important to note that there were no people back then.

So we are not in "uncharted territory" as the article implies and the world is not going to end.
Well, no one said "the world is going to end", so you should probably excise that little red herring.

But you did have one perhaps unintentional moment of clarity when you wrote "...it's important to note that there were no people back then."

Exactly.

There were no 8-point-something billion people on the planet; there were no cities based on the presence of a stable climate; there was no large-scale agricultural structure in place to feed those teeming billions. So it's not relevant to the current discussion to stand in the corner and wave one's hand and shout "But it's been hotter before!!!".

Avail yourself of this, then come back and post intelligently. Thanks!
Scientists resort to advertising to get Great Barrier Reef crisis in Queensland paper

Climate Council pays for full-page advert as expert says the Courier Mail, Queensland’s biggest newspaper, is not covering coral bleaching properly



More ...
Quoting 206. Sandy82579:

We are coming out of a period when Earth had extremely low CO2 levels. Historically levels have been much higher than now. As recently as 250 million years ago they were 3,000 ppm and at times in the past 525 million years they have been as high as 5,000 ppm. And it's important to note that there were no people back then.

So we are not in "uncharted territory" as the article implies and the world is not going to end.

No, there were no people back then. There were no mammals even.
At 3000 ppm they cannot live. Too hot, and such levels happen even to be toxic.

I do not give a damn about the survival of the world, thank you very much.
This is about MY survival.
So maybe I do give a damn - but YOU don't care.
On GW issues, and being frank, the majority of posters on here are weather enthusiasts (not climate scientists) but we all rely on scientific papers and studies with the majority of the folks linking articles and links (along with Dr. Masters/Mr. Henson) in line with the majority of the science versus the small group of denialists who cite links to the growing minority papers/studies which are mostly being discredited as more data is verifying in recent decades as to the current rapid warming phase. Tree ring/earth core samples do not lie and most of the past warming periods took thousands/millions of years to gradually develop but the current warming trend is very rapid and can be scientifically linked to modern era Co2 emissions from fossil fuel burning.

Point being that it does not take rocket science to figure out what we are currently seeing with our own eyes based upon hard real time data; warming global temps and particularly in/near the equatorial regions (both on land and in the oceans); glacial and permafrost melt in the Northern Hemisphere, warmer winters-hotter summers in the Northern Hemisphere, and sea level rise in many regions of the world. This is not science fiction; it is science fact.

Ask your elders and Grandparents (if they are still alive) whether their past Winters seemed longer and harsher than the current ones of the past few decades (or whether the current summers seem a lot hotter than their past summers) then read the science for an explanation of why this is actually happening.
Quoting 206. Sandy82579:

We are coming out of a period when Earth had extremely low CO2 levels. Historically levels have been much higher than now. As recently as 250 million years ago they were 3,000 ppm and at times in the past 525 million years they have been as high as 5,000 ppm. And it's important to note that there were no people back then.

So we are not in "uncharted territory" as the article implies and the world is not going to end.


One hundred percent correct. The world is not going to end. All the plants and animals (and humans that depend on those plants and animals) that live on it will die and be replaced with different plants and animals, but the world itself will be fine.

Quoting 206. Sandy82579:

We are coming out of a period when Earth had extremely low CO2 levels. Historically levels have been much higher than now. As recently as 250 million years ago they were 3,000 ppm and at times in the past 525 million years they have been as high as 5,000 ppm. And it's important to note that there were no people back then.

So we are not in "uncharted territory" as the article implies and the world is not going to end.


Back when the continents looked like this:

Quoting 206. Sandy82579:

We are coming out of a period when Earth had extremely low CO2 levels. Historically levels have been much higher than now. As recently as 250 million years ago they were 3,000 ppm and at times in the past 525 million years they have been as high as 5,000 ppm. And it's important to note that there were no people back then.

So we are not in "uncharted territory" as the article implies and the world is not going to end.


The planet will be fine, and is not the concern. The key point, which you seemed to have glossed over, is that CO2 hasn't been this high in over 800,000 years. Before humans existed. The last time CO2 was this high, global temperature was 11C hotter, and the seas 100ft higher. The planet will go on, there is a good possibility the way of life on the planet will drastically change. That is the concern.
Quoting 206. Sandy82579:

We are coming out of a period when Earth had extremely low CO2 levels. Historically levels have been much higher than now. As recently as 250 million years ago they were 3,000 ppm and at times in the past 525 million years they have been as high as 5,000 ppm. And it's important to note that there were no people back then.

So we are not in "uncharted territory" as the article implies and the world is not going to end.


You're right. That was during the Permian-Triassic (P-Tr) event, and CO2 levels reached ~2,000ppm. And guess what happened? The vast majority of life died on Earth (IIRC it was something like 95% of all life in the oceans and 70% of all terrestrial life). It was the greatest of all the extinction level events and the closest life has come to dying out on Earth. Just because there's historical precedence doesn't mean everything went peachy.
Quoting 131 SLU

"Another bright spot: the Paris Agreement on Climate Change will become available for global leaders"

- bright?

u must know there is absolutely nothing serious about the Paris Agreement on Climate Change lol... thats just lips service 2 feel good
Happy Earth Day everyone. To honor the day, I am wearing my earth shoes. They are every bit as uncomfortable as the day I bought them 40 years ago...
Quoting 202. NativeSun:

How much sea level rise are you talking about, as the ocean will rise more in some area's than others. From my personal observation from the dock on my back yard, their is little if any sea level rise in the South Florida area. When the pilings were installed for our dock 35 years ago, their were marks put on them for the dead low tide and the max high tide we received in the area at that time, some thing to do with the depth of the water for my dads boat at the time, guess what during the low tide the other day the water level was almost the same, but I do not know the exact date the pilings were put in, so maybe the time of year would make a difference. But to my somewhat untrained eyes it still looks like little to no rise in the ocean in my area. I wish I had a satellite in space so that I could get the correct reading like the government.


So what you're saying is: "My unscientific, just glanced at yesterday, didn't note the moon phase, wind directions, barometric pressure, ocean temperature, etc, sorta looks like it guess", is that nothing has changed at all.
220. OKsky
Quoting 202. NativeSun:

How much sea level rise are you talking about, as the ocean will rise more in some area's than others. From my personal observation from the dock on my back yard, their is little if any sea level rise in the South Florida area. When the pilings were installed for our dock 35 years ago, their were marks put on them for the dead low tide and the max high tide we received in the area at that time, some thing to do with the depth of the water for my dads boat at the time, guess what during the low tide the other day the water level was almost the same, but I do not know the exact date the pilings were put in, so maybe the time of year would make a difference. But to my somewhat untrained eyes it still looks like little to no rise in the ocean in my area. I wish I had a satellite in space so that I could get the correct reading like the government.

Let me google that for you
co2? my math. i got an increase about .000008 %... difference is 8 ppm (408-400ppm) so i divided 8 by 1,000000= 0.000008% increase
Quoting 202. NativeSun:

How much sea level rise are you talking about, as the ocean will rise more in some area's than others. From my personal observation from the dock on my back yard, their is little if any sea level rise in the South Florida area. When the pilings were installed for our dock 35 years ago, their were marks put on them for the dead low tide and the max high tide we received in the area at that time, some thing to do with the depth of the water for my dads boat at the time, guess what during the low tide the other day the water level was almost the same, but I do not know the exact date the pilings were put in, so maybe the time of year would make a difference. But to my somewhat untrained eyes it still looks like little to no rise in the ocean in my area. I wish I had a satellite in space so that I could get the correct reading like the government.


Thank goodness we have tidal gauges...



That looks like about 1/2 foot to 1 foot since records began at that location.

I love how people think they can accurately observe mean sea level rise with their own eyes and somehow filter out tidal variation and seasonal cycles by just sheer force of will and length of time spent looking at the water.
Earth day 2016

save earth save ourselves


Quoting 221. islander101010:

co2? my math. i got an increase about .000008 %... difference is 8 ppm (408-400ppm) so i divided 8 by 1,000000= 0.000008% increase
8 ppm is 2% of 400 ppm, so you're only off by a factor of, what, 250,000?

She says it all, doesn't she?

Quoting 221. islander101010:

co2? my math. i got an increase about .000008 %... difference is 8 ppm (408-400ppm) so i divided 8 by 1,000000= 0.000008% increase


Your math is wrong. When you're calculating a relative percentage, you use the actual value you're trying to make the comparison against:

(408-400)/400 = .02 or 2%

Another example, the amount of increase since pre-industrial times:

(408-280)/280 = .45 or 45%
226. OKsky
You can lead a horse to a water database, but you can't make it think.
Happy Earth Day everybody!!
This might seem out of left field but Mars is a good example of what very high levels of Co2 can do to a planet; Mar's atmosphere is currently 1% the thickness of the Earths but over millions of years (in the case of Mars), what may have once been a lush planet with lots of water has turned into a dry world with extreme temperatures not capable of sustaining much life...................................Now all that is left is a shell with a thin layer of C02 dominating the small atmosphere.............................. Just Sayin.

http://www.space.com/30746-mars-missing-atmospher e-lost-in-space.html

Quoting 206. Sandy82579:

We are coming out of a period when Earth had extremely low CO2 levels. Historically levels have been much higher than now. As recently as 250 million years ago they were 3,000 ppm and at times in the past 525 million years they have been as high as 5,000 ppm. And it's important to note that there were no people back then.

So we are not in "uncharted territory" as the article implies and the world is not going to end.


Historically. As in, well before humans existed. As in well before today's species existed. As in well before all the crops we grow existed. As in a world much hotter and very much unlike our current world.

Ever notice how the wild swings swings in CO2 concentrations seem to correspond with extinction level events? Why do you suppose that is? For example let's take that 5000 ppm 250 million years period. Do you know what that coincided with? The P-T extinction, where life almost ended permanently on this little rock. This isn't exactly a ringing endorsement of your idea that rising CO2 levels shouldn't be a concern.

However, the world will be perfectly fine. No one is claiming that the world will end. The current species are screwed (we're already in an extinction event). But the planet will be just peachy whether we're around or not.
Quoting 213. JohnLonergan:



Back when the continents looked like this:


Yep...Imagine the T.C.,s we had back then...:)
Quoting 212. tlawson48:


One hundred percent correct. The world is not going to end. All the plants and animals (and humans that depend on those plants and animals) that live on it will die and be replaced with different plants and animals, but the world itself will be fine.



The majority of life on Earth will be just fine and will hardly notice a thing, no matter how this little experiment in atmospheric chemistry and thermodynamics plays out.

...bearing in mind that the majority of life on Earth is unicellular and subterranean...
Quoting 230. no1der:



The majority of life on Earth will be just fine and will hardly notice a thing, no matter how this little experiment in atmospheric chemistry and thermodynamics plays out.

...bearing in mind that the majority of life on Earth is unicellular and subterranean...


Touché..... :)
Quoting 206. Sandy82579:

We are coming out of a period when Earth had extremely low CO2 levels. Historically levels have been much higher than now. As recently as 250 million years ago they were 3,000 ppm and at times in the past 525 million years they have been as high as 5,000 ppm. And it's important to note that there were no people back then.

So we are not in "uncharted territory" as the article implies and the world is not going to end.


I love when people use this argument... it's like you're sitting on your porch with your wife and you see a tornado heading toward you. Your wife wants to leave but you don't, you're reason? "Well a tornado hit the house that used to be here 20 years ago, destroyed the house and killed everyone inside but why should we leave? It's happened before and the lot IS still here"
233. ariot
Speaking of deep time, rock weathering is my favorite carbon sequestration technique. I'm going to go pour my Red Bull out on a stone.

Embrace Gaia, Love Gaia, Help Gaia.



Red Bull?

Do you know what's in that stuff?

Marines wont even drink it.

: P
236. bwi
Two dead after Rio bike path collapses into sea
By VeloNews.com
Published Apr. 21, 2016
Updated 17 mins ago

O Globo reports that a bike path in Rio de Janeiro, constructed in advance of the 2016 Summer Olympics, collapsed Thursday. Two people were killed and three others remain unaccounted for on Friday.

According to the Brazilian news site, Eduardo Albuquerque, 54, and Ronaldo Severino da Silva, 60, were killed in the incident, which was caused by a large wave striking the pillars that supported the path. A cyclone off the coast was generating waves that were up to three meters high, according to Brazilian meteorologists.

The path opened in January, and the section which failed was 50 meters above the Sao Conrado beach.

http://velonews.competitor.com/2016/04/news/rio-b ikepath-collapses-into-sea-five-missing_403176
Quoting 206. Sandy82579:

We are coming out of a period when Earth had extremely low CO2 levels. Historically levels have been much higher than now. As recently as 250 million years ago they were 3,000 ppm and at times in the past 525 million years they have been as high as 5,000 ppm. And it's important to note that there were no people back then.

So we are not in "uncharted territory" as the article implies and the world is not going to end.
I wanted to find a graphic which supports your argument, so did an image search on ancient CO2 data and what a fine bunch of graphs are available with all kind of colorful squiggly lines.. not much that goes back to the 250 Million years noted in the comment though. So I google '250 Million year CO2' and got a livescience.com article which was a 'gentrified' summary of a paper published by PNAS , lead author, Douwe G. Van Der Meer. If you have an interest and 20 minutes (without examining supplemental materials) it's an interesting read.

Plate tectonic controls on atmospheric CO2 levels since the Triassic

Paper Link

Quoting 229. hydrus:

Yep...Imagine the T.C.,s we had back then...:)
hyper canes
Climate Denial Crock of the Week
with Peter Sinclair

If any R's are out there have a clue, please tell these folks they are Hurting America and Her future with this crock o poop.

New Video: Surveilling the Scientists
April 21, 2016






I expect the CO2 increases to continue accelerating for many reasons, regardless of anthropogenic emissions, not least because forests all over the world are in steep decline. Trees have been absorbing air pollution for decades. You can't see ozone so many people don't realize how toxic it is, or that the background concentration is rising. Precursors from fuel emissions and agricultural nitrous oxides circumnavigate the globe so that no place, even remote wilderness, is spared. Vegetation is extremely vulnerable to ozone, which causes roots to shrink and reduces natural immunity to biotic pathogens. Fungus, insects and disease are epidemics now on trees of all species. All you have to do is really look at any tree to find symptoms of terminal decline - broken branches, thin crowns, injured foliage, splitting bark that oozes sap. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sn1Xy_j48k0
241. ariot
Quoting 235. Patrap:

Red Bull?

Do you know what's in that stuff?

Marines wont even drink it.

: P


You know they were giving away 2 Red Bulls a day downrange at the mess halls (DFACs) for a while? All that stopped, I hear, once the PX got set up good on the FOBs. They were also giving away (corporate donation) some off brand stuff like "RipIt" and "Monster."

If you go in a stateside PX or BX (or MCX or NEX) they have them right there by the checkout. That's where I got this one earlier today :P

Seriously though, rock weathering is cool. It sequesters about 1 GT of CO2 / year in the face of our 30GT emissions.

The rocks are over there like, "Damn newbies need to quit spewing carbon."
Quoting 206. Sandy82579:

We are coming out of a period when Earth had extremely low CO2 levels. Historically levels have been much higher than now. As recently as 250 million years ago they were 3,000 ppm and at times in the past 525 million years they have been as high as 5,000 ppm. And it's important to note that there were no people back then.

So we are not in "uncharted territory" as the article implies and the world is not going to end.


Planet Earth may exist, but our contributions to carbon ppm is clearly impacting that measurement and will make our habitat for LIVING different that any time in our existence. Planet Earth will continue to exist, but many existing living organisms may not. The question is, will our immediate future (30-100 years) consist of any massive changes/investments from humans? e.g. Government, Businesses, etc. etc. etc.

Wake Up and appreciate the fragility of our home.
NOLA Jazz Fest opens in a Half Hour here.

Friday, April 22 - Music Lineup


Quoting 243. Patrap:

NOLA Jazz Fest opens in a Half Hour here.

Friday, April 22 - Music Lineup





Enjoy Pat, I missed it by one week last year when I was at the SSS conference. This year it starts the last week of the semester. Eventually, I will find my way there. :)
Quoting 243. Patrap:

NOLA Jazz Fest opens in a Half Hour here.

Friday, April 22 - Music Lineup





Jealous!! looks like fun :)
Quoting 239. Patrap:

Climate Denial Crock of the Week
with Peter Sinclair

If any R's are out there have a clue, please tell these folks they are Hurting America and Her future with this crock o poop.


The immorality of the contemporary Republican party is rather breathtaking. Small wonder I left that party long ago. I saw it coming. I have to say that I didn't see it getting this bad, though.
Quoting 229. hydrus:

Yep...Imagine the T.C.,s we had back then...:)


We might not have to imagine in the near future. It's quite scary to think how powerful tropical cyclones may get in the next 50-100 years.
Quoting 247. Envoirment:



We might not have to imagine in the near future. It's quite scary to think how powerful tropical cyclones may get in the next 50-100 years.
in the next 39 days
Be interesting to see where the dryline really sets up Tuesday.
Quoting 249. Barefootontherocks:

Be interesting to see where the dryline really sets up Tuesday.
yeah gonna be a doozie
252. OKsky
Quoting 249. Barefootontherocks:

Be interesting to see where the dryline really sets up Tuesday.


Agreed, I am starting to get that "ew, its spring time" feeling in the pit of my stomach.
253. bwi
Lots of really interesting stuff happening in the Arctic so far this spring. The winter temps stayed above average all winter (literally), and recently a strong high pressure has set the Beaufort gyre in motion, cracking ice north of Alaska and the Yukon, and contributing to ice export through the Fram Strait east of Greenland. Per the Jennifer Francis thesis, the impacts of a higher albedo higher temps more water vapor etc. in the Arctic are likely contributing to jet stream mayhem throughout the N. hemisphere.

It turns out that watching ice melt is both fascinating the a bit terrifying. Here's a great intro resource in my opinion, with lots of links and discussion: Arctic Sea Ice Blog

Just noticed NHC added daily SST and Anomaly maps






Quoting 206. Sandy82579:

As recently as 250 million years ago.


you just made me spit out my coffee. bravo, sir.
Quoting 253. bwi:

Lots of really interesting stuff happening in the Arctic so far this spring. The winter temps stayed above average all winter (literally), and recently a strong high pressure has set the Beaufort gyre in motion, cracking ice north of Alaska and the Yukon, and contributing to ice export through the Fram Strait east of Greenland. Per the Jennifer Francis thesis, the impacts of a higher albedo higher temps more water vapor etc. in the Arctic are likely contributing to jet stream mayhem throughout the N. hemisphere.

It turns out that watching ice melt is both fascinating the a bit terrifying. Here's a great intro resource in my opinion, with lots of links and discussion: Arctic Sea Ice Blog



It's unprecedented since record-keeping really took off in early 80's. "Huge" signal of things to come. Not only that but albedo and melts on Greenland should be closely watched this summer too.
Quoting 256. schwankmoe:



you just made me spit out my coffee. bravo, sir.
Hard for me to fathom 750,000 years, nevermind 250,000,000.
Quoting 211. weathermanwannabe:

On GW issues, and being frank, the majority of posters on here are weather enthusiasts (not climate scientists) but we all rely on scientific papers and studies with the majority of the folks linking articles and links (along with Dr. Masters/Mr. Henson) in line with the majority of the science versus the small group of denialists who cite links to the growing minority papers/studies which are mostly being discredited as more data is verifying in recent decades as to the current rapid warming phase. Tree ring/earth core samples do not lie and most of the past warming periods took thousands/millions of years to gradually develop but the current warming trend is very rapid and can be scientifically linked to modern era Co2 emissions from fossil fuel burning.

Point being that it does not take rocket science to figure out what we are currently seeing with our own eyes based upon hard real time data; warming global temps and particularly in/near the equatorial regions (both on land and in the oceans); glacial and permafrost melt in the Northern Hemisphere, warmer winters-hotter summers in the Northern Hemisphere, and sea level rise in many regions of the world. This is not science fiction; it is science fact.

Ask your elders and Grandparents (if they are still alive) whether their past Winters seemed longer and harsher than the current ones of the past few decades (or whether the current summers seem a lot hotter than their past summers) then read the science for an explanation of why this is actually happening.

Agreed. The issue is mostly the lag time that was mentioned earlier. We are just starting to see the effects of this rapid rise in Co2. Its like a 4 million pound locomotive that is just starting to roll. Right now all the deniers are saying look its barely moving and there's no proof that we are really causing it. If we wait till this massive train is moving any quicker the lag time to stop it will bring us to an unlivable earth because of the lag time. We need strong legislation to slow and then stop fossil fuel burning NOW or it will be too late.
Quoting 253. bwi:

Lots of really interesting stuff happening in the Arctic so far this spring. The winter temps stayed above average all winter (literally), and recently a strong high pressure has set the Beaufort gyre in motion, cracking ice north of Alaska and the Yukon, and contributing to ice export through the Fram Strait east of Greenland. Per the Jennifer Francis thesis, the impacts of a higher albedo higher temps more water vapor etc. in the Arctic are likely contributing to jet stream mayhem throughout the N. hemisphere.

It turns out that watching ice melt is both fascinating the a bit terrifying. Here's a great intro resource in my opinion, with lots of links and discussion: Arctic Sea Ice Blog




credit to Forum member A-Team and a quote on that animation:

Below is an overview of the entire Arctic Ocean for 01-21 Apr 16. I'll add a zoom animation for new Beaufort cracking development in a bit when the full April 21st arrives. These take a bit of special processing on the contrast side as there is a lot more in this Worldview imagery than white on white.
In store for Western and Central Europe is a veritably cold week, four to seven degrees below normal (1981-2010). Pack of white gold for the Alps.
Ice Age Cometh.
Quoting 240. WitsEndNJ:

I expect the CO2 increases to continue accelerating for many reasons, regardless of anthropogenic emissions, not least because forests all over the world are in steep decline. Trees have been absorbing air pollution for decades. You can't see ozone so many people don't realize how toxic it is, or that the background concentration is rising. Precursors from fuel emissions and agricultural nitrous oxides circumnavigate the globe so that no place, even remote wilderness, is spared. Vegetation is extremely vulnerable to ozone, which causes roots to shrink and reduces natural immunity to biotic pathogens. Fungus, insects and disease are epidemics now on trees of all species. All you have to do is really look at any tree to find symptoms of terminal decline - broken branches, thin crowns, injured foliage, splitting bark that oozes sap. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sn1Xy_j48k0

Also, the sinks might be getting clogged.
Land- and permafrost erosion feeding Arctic waters giving concern for rapid acidification there.
SST's increasing so outgas ratios increase.
What will the death of coral do.

Quoting 213. JohnLonergan:



Back when the continents looked like this:


Florida was safe from TC's or should I say more so.....
Quoting 235. Patrap:

Red Bull?

Do you know what's in that stuff?

Marines wont even drink it.

: P

Red Bull, yes it contains beef. Marines are vegans.
Quoting 230. no1der:



The majority of life on Earth will be just fine and will hardly notice a thing, no matter how this little experiment in atmospheric chemistry and thermodynamics plays out.

...bearing in mind that the majority of life on Earth is unicellular and subterranean...
Many of the trolls are unicellular and lacking a nucleus
GFS is being showing a tropical low around PR for the last 2 weeks. Looks like the GFS bias of showing a system on the west Caribbean has move towards eastern Caribbean and PR, if that is true then i won't make it this season with the lack of sleep and anxiety or spamming the cat gif i'll end up ban from the blog lol

Quoting 241. ariot:



You know they were giving away 2 Red Bulls a day downrange at the mess halls (DFACs) for a while? All that stopped, I hear, once the PX got set up good on the FOBs. They were also giving away (corporate donation) some off brand stuff like "RipIt" and "Monster."

If you go in a stateside PX or BX (or MCX or NEX) they have them right there by the checkout. That's where I got this one earlier today :P

Seriously though, rock weathering is cool. It sequesters about 1 GT of CO2 / year in the face of our 30GT emissions.

The rocks are over there like, "Damn newbies need to quit spewing carbon."


On that subject, injecting pressurised CO2 into basalt formations is seen as one of the most likely ways to store carbon captured from fossil power plants. There is lots of scholarly research on it.
268. JRRP7

Quoting 268. JRRP7:



Showing another huge Eastern Pacific season.

Back to semi-normal, average is 77/52(KRAL), yesterday was 84.1/56.9
Quoting 258. hydrus:

Hard for me to fathom 750,000 years, nevermind 250,000,000.

This narrowmindedness... ;)
Not hard to fathom as it has only been 80 generations since the time of Christ.

Ive experienced 4.
Quoting 271. cRRKampen:


This narrowmindedness... ;)
Yes...cowering in a tight corner....
Quoting 272. Patrap:

Not hard to fathom as it has only been 80 generations since the time of Christ.

Ive experienced 4.
Yep....And his Father has a large back yard....91 billion light years across.
Got a great garden soaker when the storms rolled thru last night.


Now we have a great weekend for the Jazz Fest attendee's.



Quoting 264. cRRKampen:


Red Bull, yes it contains beef. Marines are vegans.
How do cows eat grass and turn into meat.?
Here is a presentation by Professor Jerry Mitrovica of Harvard. He talks about how we know sea levels are rising and how gravity will play a part in where the water goes around the planet. A great lecture that I havn't seen posted here before...

https://youtu.be/RhdY-ZezK7w
Quoting 252. OKsky:



Agreed, I am starting to get that "ew, its spring time" feeling in the pit of my stomach.


For me the feeling is resigned dread. Resigned, because I know it's going to happen, and dread because, unless the storm gods are merciful, *someone* is going to have their life radically altered in a bad way on Tuesday. I've had too many close calls to think it couldn't happen to me.

Time to get the pet carriers ready and stock the shelter with water, and hope family and friends escape unscathed.

I think it's a feeling that has worked its way into the collective consciousness of Oklahomans. Over the past two years I have watched almost everyone in the neighborhood install storm shelters on their property.
Quoting 269. Gearsts:

Showing another huge Eastern Pacific season.
I believe Nina will rival our rapidly shrinking Nino.....Its gonna take 10 years for him to come back
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 266. Gearsts:

GFS is being showing a tropical low around PR for the last 2 weeks. Looks like the GFS bias of showing a system on the west Caribbean has move towards eastern Caribbean and PR, if that is true then i won't make it this season with the lack of sleep and anxiety or spamming the cat gif i'll end up ban from the blog lol




Well if anything close to the ECMWF pans out there wont be for you to stay up for in the coming months.
282. bwi
Although what's really important climate-wise are the steadily dropping decadal averages, we're running lowest ever on Arctic sea ice extent so far this year. Area measures and volume measures (including thickness) are also in or near lowest measures at this point of the year. Will be an interesting summer to watch -- sunny and lots of ice loss like 2012 and 2015, or cloudy and some ice gain like 2013 and 2014? Of course there's more to it than that (water temps, export etc.), but while climate change rolls on with lower and lower averages, the monthly and annual fluctuations are based on shorter term weather patterns. This link is a handy summary of the current forecasts for sun, temp, winds etc.

Quoting 260. CraigsIsland:



credit to Forum member A-Team and a quote on that animation:

Below is an overview of the entire Arctic Ocean for 01-21 Apr 16. I'll add a zoom animation for new Beaufort cracking development in a bit when the full April 21st arrives. These take a bit of special processing on the contrast side as there is a lot more in this Worldview imagery than white on white.

A-Team is amazing. I always look forward to his/her posts over there.
Gratz to the weather channel and whomever else is responsible for the steady degradation of this site over the years. Make things hard to find, get more clicks? I don't know. Issuing vague or wrong-beyond-all-possibility forecasts... maybe to keep the suspense level elevated? I don't know. This morning there was no button, as there used to be at the top, to link in to the blogs. In order to find my way here, I had to scroll all the way to the bottom and sort through the 'site map'.

Sure, by steady degradation of the site, you get more clicks. Short term.

Maybe I am finally cured of coming here, thinking I will find ready access to tangible information.

:-P
285. MahFL
Quoting 227. weathermanwannabe:

This might seem out of left field but Mars is a good example of what very high levels of Co2 can do to a planet



Your 100% wrong, the article says the atmosphere was lost to space, so the water left and the surface got bombarded with cosmic rays. That's got nothing to do with Mars being in a green house state.
Quoting 207. ariot:



We have been acting as a collective climate force since at least 1800. In just 200 years, we have managed to do what previously took nature tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of years.

The interesting thing is that we have empirical data that proves we are a climate force. So we don't have to opine about deep time and natural climate forces that existed in various geological eras. We have proof. We should discuss that proof rather than dismiss it as the climate changed before on a time scale that most humans can't event comprehend.


How do we know it took 10's of thousands of years, their was no one to collect the info, and please no tree cores or ice boar holes. Man is polluting the air and water, which is far more dangerous than a little climate warming, lets fix these two problems first and then the 3rd one will follow suite.
287. vis0

Quoting 206. Sandy82579:

We are coming out of a period when Earth had extremely low CO2 levels. Historically levels have been much higher than now. As recently as 250 million years ago they were 3,000 ppm and at times in the past 525 million years they have been as high as 5,000 ppm. And it's important to note that there were no people back then.

So we are not in "uncharted territory" as the article implies and the world is not going to end.
i'm Looking for the  sarcasm brackets?
Since i see none, my reply would be ::


Well if we reach half way to 5,000ppm amounts you mentioned i figure it will also become uncharted, as who will be around to "chart" it.
288. ariot
Quoting 286. NativeSun:

How do we know it took 10's of thousands of years, their was no one to collect the info, and please no tree cores or ice boar holes. Man is polluting the air and water, which is far more dangerous than a little climate warming, lets fix these two problems first and then the 3rd one will follow suite.


If you ask me an question about how we know how long it took to build carbon in the atmosphere during various geologic periods on a device that is connected to the sum of the world's knowledge, I assume you don't want an answer at all, but to plant doubt in the mind of someone causally reading comments.

So here's a multiple choice answer to your question, pick your favorite answer.

a) timescales, atmospheric CO2 concentration is determined by the balance among geochemical processes over time

b) a poorly coordinated bunch of broke-ass scientists who never met each other, dislike each other generally had a secret meeting at the Waffle House in Jackson, Mississippi on June 18th, 2001 and made all this shit up to get grants, it would have worked, but they were foiled by a band of handsome billionaires with concealed carry permits who were in town to enforce right to work laws.

c) a supernatural being, known to mere mortals as "god" made it happen, you just have to pick your favorite one.
Quoting 276. hydrus:

How do cows eat grass and turn into meat.?

Haven't a clue and I don't care. Why should I understand how beef came about when I consume it?
I repeat, marines are vegans.

(pfff. I love some nonsense sometimes)
*
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Three hurricane names retired after devastating, record-breaking season

The World Meteorological Organization has retired three hurricane names following a 2015 storm season where records were shattered and lives lost.

The three names are Erika, Joaquin and Patricia.

They will be replaced with Elsa, Julian and Pamela when the lists are reissued in 2021, according to a press release from the National Hurricane Center.