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Atlantic November Hurricane Outlook

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:01 PM GMT on November 01, 2013

The tropical Atlantic is quiet, with no threat areas to discuss, and no reliable models predicting development of a tropical cyclone during the coming five days. So, are we all done for 2013? Or will this unusually quiet hurricane season spawn a Tropical Storm Melissa? The large-scale circulation pattern over the first half of November favors upward-moving air and an increased chance of tropical storm development over the Atlantic, due to the current positioning of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days. By mid-November, this pattern will favor sinking air over the tropical Atlantic, making a late-November tropical storm an unlikely proposition. Wind shear has risen to high levels prohibitive for tropical storm formation over the Gulf of Mexico and the waters near the Bahama Islands, and is expected to remain very high through mid-November, according to the latest run of the GFS model. However, wind shear over the Caribbean is likely to be average to below average for the next two weeks, making tropical storm formation possible there. The oceans are certainly warm enough to support development, with Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Caribbean 0.2°C (0.37°F) above average, and well above the 26°C (79°F) threshold typically needed to support tropical storm formation (Figure 1.) Dry air--which has dominated the tropical Atlantic during the 2013 hurricane season--will continue to make its presence felt over the Caribbean during portions of the coming two weeks, though, reducing the odds of development. The African Monsoon is quiet this time of year, and we no longer have African waves coming off the coast of Africa that can act as the seeds for formation of a tropical storm in the Caribbean. If we do get a tropical storm, it will probably be in the Western Caribbean, where the tail end of a cold front lingers long enough over warm waters to generate some heavy thunderstorms and acquire a spin. A cold front capable of triggering such a disturbance will arrive over the Western Caribbean November 8 - 9, but the GFS and ECMWF models are not suggesting any development from this front. Taking all these factors into account, I predict that the Atlantic hurricane season of 2013 is over, with just a 20% chance of another named storm this season.


Figure 1. Sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic on November 1, 2013. The black line marks the 26°C (79°F) isotherm, which is the boundary where tropical storm formation can typically occur. A large portion of the Atlantic is still capable of supporting tropical storm formation, but the Gulf of Mexico is getting marginal.

Climatology of November Atlantic tropical cyclones
Since the active hurricane period we are in began in 1995, eleven of the eighteen years (61%) have seen one or more Atlantic named storms form after November 1, for a total of sixteen November/December storms:

2011: Tropical Storm Sean on November 8
2009: Hurricane Ida on November 4
2008: Hurricane Paloma on November 6
2007: Tropical Storm Olga on December 11
2005: the "Greek" storms Gamma, Delta, Epsilon, and Zeta
2004: Tropical Storm Otto on November 29
2003: Odette and Peter in December
2001: Hurricane Noel on November 5 and Hurricane Olga on November 24
1999: Hurricane Lenny on November 14
1998: Hurricane Nicole on November 24
1996: Hurricane Marco on November 19

Only three of these storms (19%) caused loss of life: Hurricane Ida of 2009, which killed one boater on the Mississippi River; Tropical Storm Odette of 2007, whose floods killed eight people in the Dominican Republic; and Hurricane Lenny of 1999, which killed fifteen people in the Lesser Antilles. "Wrong-way Lenny" was both the deadliest and the strongest November hurricane on record (Category 4, 155 mph winds). There have been only seven major Category 3 or stronger hurricanes in the Atlantic after November 1. Part of the reason for the relatively low loss of life for November storms is that they tend to form from extratropical low pressure systems that get cut off from the jet stream and linger over the warm waters of the subtropical Atlantic. These type of systems typically get their start in the middle Atlantic, far from land, and end up recurving northeastwards out to sea. The most recent November named storm, Tropical Storm Sean of 2011, was an example of this type of storm. However, as I noted in the wake of Hurricane Tomas of November 2010 in my blog post, Deadly late-season Atlantic hurricanes growing more frequent, "It used to be that late-season hurricanes were a relative rarity--in the 140-year period from 1851 - 1990, only 30 hurricanes existed in the Atlantic on or after November 1, an average of one late-season hurricane every five years. Only four major Category 3 or stronger late-season hurricanes occurred in those 140 years, and only three Caribbean hurricanes. But in the past twenty years, late-season hurricanes have become 3.5 times more frequent--there have been fifteen late-season hurricanes, and five of those occurred in the Caribbean. Three of these were major hurricanes, and were the three strongest late-season hurricanes on record". Dr. Jim Kossin of the University of Wisconsin published a 2008 paper in Geophysical Research Letters titled, "Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?" He concluded that yes, there is an "apparent tendency toward more common early- and late-season storms that correlates with warming Sea Surface Temperature but the uncertainty in these relationships is high". The recent increase in powerful and deadly November hurricanes would seem to support this conclusion.


Figure 2. The strongest hurricane on record in the Atlantic in November, Hurricane Lenny, takes aim at the Lesser Antilles on November 17, 1999. Image credit: NOAA.

Typhoon Krosa takes aim at China
Category 2 Typhoon Krosa is headed towards China's Hainan Island after battering the northern end of Luzon, the main Philippines Island, on Thursday. Krosa hit extreme northeast Luzon near 06 UTC (2 am EDT) on October 31, as a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. No injuries or major damage have been reported so far from the storm. Satellite loops show an impressive system with a large eye and plenty of intense thunderstorms. The typhoon will slowly weaken over the weekend as it encounters higher wind shear and cooler waters, before brushing China's Hainan Island as a tropical storm on Sunday.

The GFS and European models predict that the Philippines will see a new tropical storm or typhoon hit the islands on Friday, November 8.


Figure 3. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Krosa taken at 05:05 UTC on November 1, 2013. At the time, Krosa was a Category 1 storm with winds of 85 mph. Image credit: NASA.

TD 18-E in Eastern Pacific will bring heavy rains to Mexico
In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Depression 18-E has spun up south of Baja, Mexico. Satellite loops show that the depression is poorly organized, but has plenty of intense thunderstorms. Heavy rains from TD 18-E will begin affecting the southern Baja Peninsula and portions of Mainland Mexico to its east on Sunday. The 06Z Friday run of the HWRF model predicted that Mainland Mexico near Manzanillo could see 4 - 8 inches of rain from the system. Moisture from the storm will spread northeastwards into Southwest Texas by Tuesday.

New "Tipping Points" episode, "Arctic Permafrost Peril", airs Saturday at 9 pm EDT/8 pm CDT
“Tipping Points”, a landmark 6-part TV series that began last Saturday on The Weather Channel, airs for the third time on Saturday night, November 2, at 9 pm EDT. The new episode, "Arctic Permafrost Peril", goes on an expedition across Alaska to the North Pole to explore the ticking time bomb of the permafrost melt and the release of tons of carbon dioxide and methane. The series is hosted by polar explorer and climate journalist Bernice Notenboom, the first woman to perform the remarkable triple feat of climbing Mt. Everest and walking to the North and South Poles. In each episode, Notenboom heads off to a far corner of the world to find scientists in the field undertaking vital climate research to try to understand how the climate system is changing and how long we have to make significant changes before we reach a tipping point--a point of no return when our climate system will be changed irreversibly.


Figure 4. "Tipping Points" host Bernice Notenboom watches as scientists take permafrost measurements near the Alaska Pipeline.

I'll have a new post by Monday at the latest.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Another storm hit the UK over night. not as bad as last weekend, although 10,000 are without power, trees down and damage to property. Five in hospital, but luckily no one was killed this weekend.
Winds gusted to over 80 mph.

Although a little late but the clouds are now starting to build upwards slowly we should start to see convection pop near the LLC by around 8/9/10 this morning
But anyway look who is right with the TWO and our AOI
And I'm giving my self a pat on the back
Ouch:

Quoting 1004. KoritheMan:
Ouch:


They're banking on RI. I don't think any of the major models are nearly that aggressive, but so many storm's have exploded out there this year that they figure this one will too.
Those are some really cold cloud tops!
1007. JRRP
Quoting 1007. JRRP:

Yep most of the vorts are in line

Darn I wasn't able to see any part of the eclipse as it is very cloudy and rainy however there was a a nice hole of clear sky but it came too early and has now past my view and now I have clouds back on my head and giving me a drizzle of rain on me however behind that is another clearing which I might be able to catch a glimpse of it hopefully though I have my doubts
Quoting 1005. MAweatherboy1:

They're banking on RI. I don't think any of the major models are nearly that aggressive, but so many storm's have exploded out there this year that they figure this one will too.


Neither the explicit intensity guidance nor the global models are programmed to accurately forecast rapid intensification episodes, however. That's actually where the largest NHC errors originate.
1011. JRRP
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Yep most of the vorts are in line

Darn I wasn't able to see any part of the eclipse as it is very cloudy and rainy however there was a a nice hole of clear sky but it came too early and has now past my view and now I have clouds back on my head and giving me a drizzle of rain on me however behind that is another clearing which I might be able to catch a glimpse of it hopefully though I have my doubts

jejejeje me neither
As for the Caribbean, I'm legitimately surprised the NHC decided to acknowledge it on short order. kman, I'll have to give you credit for outsmarting me on this one.

Can't win 'em all, yeah?

EDIT: Its acknowledgement from the NHC still doesn't do anything to bolster my confidence in its future though, lol.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST SUN NOV 3 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SOUTHWARD
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AND WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE SURFACE LOW
DRIFTS WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SONIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013
400 AM PST SUN NOV 03 2013

...SONIA MOVING NORTHWARD...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM PST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 110.0W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 410 MI...665 KM SSW OF CULIACAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
Quoting 1011. JRRP:

jejejeje me neither

You to man that sucks

Quoting 1012. KoritheMan:
As for the Caribbean, I'm legitimately surprised the NHC decided to acknowledge it on short order. kman, I'll have to give you credit for outsmarting me on this one.

Can't win 'em all, yeah?

EDIT: Its acknowledgement from the NHC still doesn't do anything to bolster my confidence in its future though, lol.

Thanks mate

Shear is currently falling over our AOI so we should see increase in convection building over the LLC soon





The ULL is moving WNW-NW bound now taking its high shear with it and the ULAC is starting to move W bringing in lower shear
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's another all around morning but dropped twenty degrees, so 46 all around with 100% humidity.

Breakfast is on the sideboard: Breakfast's on the sideboard: Fruity Baked Oatmeal, Spicy Scrambled Egg Sandwiches, apple cinnamon waffles, Corned Beef Hash with Fried Eggs, Glazed Cinnamon Rolls with Pecan Swirls, Omelet Soufflé, Oversize Breakfast Biscuits with sausage patties and strawberry jelly on the side, sweet and spicy bacon, Apple-Pecan Baked Oatmeal, Cajun Breakfast Casserole, cheesy grits and shrimp, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Special treat of flavored cappuccinos, cinnamon, Irish cream, white chocolate caramel or French vanilla . Enjoy!
We are approaching the beginning of the new Atlantic Basin Hurricane season (Nov 6 to December 12). Lets get ready for some real action. I've advised my wife and family accordingly, as there will be lots of work to do. I issued my forecast yesterday, for 4 - 2 - 1
during this period. I base my forecast on absolutely nothing. Yet, confidence is very high.
been awhile since we had anything in the carib.
Quoting 1017. eyewallblues:
We are approaching the beginning of the new Atlantic Basin Hurricane season (Nov 6 to December 12). Lets get ready for some real action. I've advised my wife and family accordingly, as there will be lots of work to do. I issued my forecast yesterday, for 4 - 2 - 1
during this period. I base my forecast on absolutely nothing. Yet, confidence is very high.

Lol

Quoting 1018. islander101010:
been awhile since we had anything in the carib.

I'm surprised that people are surprised about this Caribbean AOI I said it would happen and that eventually NHC would take note of it
1020. acl8610

Total solar eclipse over the Atlantic attm... notice the dark areas out to sea, that's the moon's shadow.
Quoting 1020. acl8610:

Total solar eclipse over the Atlantic attm... notice the dark areas out to sea, that's the moon's shadow.

Yeah but I can't actually see it over here is mostly overcast
Quoting 1020. acl8610:

Total solar eclipse over the Atlantic attm... notice the dark areas out to sea, that's the moon's shadow.

And yeah but you get a much better satellite images if you use this one

Might be our next super typhoon.
Watching the solar eclipse progress, now over the Cape Verde islands...
Quoting 1004. KoritheMan:
Ouch:


That is bad if the track verifies. I work with people in Manila and they have somehow avoided anything over TS conditions so far this year. Until now?
1026. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
ELEVATED NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MARINE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT...RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS.
REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE AND COASTAL WATERS
FORECAST FOR MORE INFORMATION.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...STRONG WINDS...AND HIGH ENERGY RELEASE
COMPONENT VALUES WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY. REFER TO THE
LATEST FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST AND RED FLAG WARNING FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

The global sea surface temperature map, eastern half of the Pacific along the equator, has always looked like an eddy street (Kármán vortex street). Is this real or an artifact of the contouring algorithm used to produce the map? Thank you Dr. Masters. Dave Lambert.
1028. JRRP

wow
At least they acknowledge it today.


FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SOUTHWARD
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AND WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE SURFACE LOW
DRIFTS WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
1030. pcola57

Surface map for next week (Nov 8). Strong High Pressure dominating the East Coast.
Still pesky low in the Caribbean.
1032. pcola57

72 hour tropical analysis
Pesky Low in the Caribbean
An AOI in the Caribbean- interesting...might get some rain/wind after all...
Quoting 1006. Hurricane614:
Those are some really cold cloud tops!

Yeah, it really looks like a fuzzy ball.
1036. Torito
Furball.... I've always wanted to call a tropical system that, and I think this is a good example.


1037. Torito
Quoting 1032. pcola57:
SLOOH Live..



is this eclipse currently progressing, or receeding?
TD 31W looks a lot like Bopha. Both were late-season and formed around 5 degrees north. This one could be bad if it hits a populated area
1039. Torito
1040. Torito
1041. Torito
1042. Torito
1043. Torito
1044. pcola57
Quoting 1037. Torito:


is this eclipse currently progressing, or receeding?


It is both depending on your location in it's path.. :)
Good Morning Torito.. :)
1045. Torito
Quoting 1044. pcola57:


It is both depending on your location in it's path.. :)
Good Morning Torito.. :)


morning, Pcola. :)
According to the NHC conditions aren't favorable for development down in the Caribbean. Too much wind shear with that big ULL. TWC gave it no chance for development. Not surprised, that has been the story all year.
1048. Patrap
Good Morning, 56F in Mid-City NOLA
1049. pcola57
Quoting 1048. Patrap:
Good Morning, 56F in Mid-City NOLA


A lovely day in the Southeast:)
Quoting 1046. clwstmchasr:
According to the NHC conditions aren't favorable for development down in the Caribbean. Too much wind shear with that big ULL. TWC gave it no chance for development. Not surprised, that has been the story all year.

Conditions aren't that that bad ULL moving out ULAC moving in and shear decreasing

Plus you said that's been the story all year but yet storms still developed
Let's hope not but 31W may be the biggest threat yet in 2013 in terms of loss of life in landmasses.

1053. Torito
O_o Krosa fizzed out before it made landfall. I dont think anyone was expecting that.....

Quoting 1028. JRRP:

wow
NHC gonna mention it ?
Quoting 1053. Torito:
O_o Krosa fizzed out before it made landfall. I dont think anyone was expecting that.....


I was. The South China Sea is usually pretty hostile this time of year.
Quoting 1051. wunderkidcayman:

Conditions aren't that that bad ULL moving out ULAC moving in and shear decreasing

Plus you said that's been the story all year but yet storms still developed


Yes, we have had a bunch of very weak systems because of unfavorable conditions which has been the story all year. As far as current conditions being "not that bad", let's wait and see but the NHC gives it only a 10% chance in 5 days.
NHC actually shows the low in the Caribbean weakening over the next 7 days (correction - next 3 days).
It stays down there (persistant), but conditions just won't allow it to organize.
Quoting 1055. 1900hurricane:

I was. The South China Sea is usually pretty hostile this time of year.

Also, the agencies forecasting Krosa were forecasting this all along. The SW turn in the forecast was due to the weaker cyclone being caught up in the low level flow.



Quoting 1058. FLWeatherFreak91:
Wunderkidcayman, I know it's hard for you to let go of this dud of a hurricane season, but odds are it is totally done for, and you will just have to wait for next year. I imagine you're fairly young, and I know for certain that one day you will get the devastating storm you want to ravage your low lying island.

But it's not going to be 2013...

Anyway, I will be in Georgetown in 2 weeks! My clear skies dance is WAY more powerful than your hurricane dance :p It'll be great weather for my stingray bay experience.


So funny you say that. When I was down there it rained like you can't believe. But we still did the stingray encounter and reef snokeling. Once in the water the rain didn't matter. It just sucked because when you got out of the water it was hard to get dry.
I've been barbed twice by stingrays. It's a bad experience.
But the stingrays on the encounter are basically trained so it's really no worry. I hugged a couple of them. It was fun.

Still had a great time. Nice and sunny in Jamaica, Cancun, and Haiti.
Look, Game Over!
Quoting 1056. clwstmchasr:


Yes, we have had a bunch of very weak systems because of unfavorable conditions which has been the story all year. As far as current conditions being "not that bad", let's wait and see but the NHC gives it only a 10% chance in 5 days.

Yeah NHC has been doing that for almost every system that formed this year gave it 10% for 5 days out nothing new there

Quoting 1058. FLWeatherFreak91:
Wunderkidcayman, I know it's hard for you to let go of this dud of a hurricane season, but odds are it is totally done for, and you will just have to wait for next year. I imagine you're fairly young, and I know for certain that one day you will get the devastating storm you want to ravage your low lying island.

But it's not going to be 2013...

Anyway, I will be in Georgetown in 2 weeks! My clear skies dance is WAY more powerful than your hurricane dance :p It'll be great weather for my stingray bay experience.

What?!?!? Dude come back to me when you want to talk sense to me
For all I know I'm older than you so sit down
And the kid in my username does not determine my actual age
And how dare you trash talk me about devastating storms I've been through many of those hurricanes and I don't ever want to see anything like them again

Oh you coming to Cayman huh well I'll be looking for ya

Quoting 1061. Sfloridacat5:


So funny you say that. When I was down there it rained like you can't believe. But we still did the stingray encounter and reef snokeling. Once in the water the rain didn't matter. It just sucked because when you got out of the water it was hard to get dry.

Still had a great time. Nice and sunny in Jamaica, Cancun, and Haiti.

Actually those days are actually quite nice it can get much worse than that with out a tropical system affecting us
Quoting 1058. FLWeatherFreak91:
Wunderkidcayman, I know it's hard for you to let go of this dud of a hurricane season, but odds are it is totally done for, and you will just have to wait for next year. I imagine you're fairly young, and I know for certain that one day you will get the devastating storm you want to ravage your low lying island.

But it's not going to be 2013...

Anyway, I will be in Georgetown in 2 weeks! My clear skies dance is WAY more powerful than your hurricane dance :p It'll be great weather for my stingray bay experience.

Oh yeah and you just got flagged
Anyway guys see y'all later like after 12
some of you guys need too stop wishcasting its not going too form the wind shear is UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT and it looks like it will stay that way the on the wind shear may it may look Favorable but wish way is the wind shear pointing thats right its pointing at UNFAVORABLE FOR any kind of DEVELOPMENT
Quoting 1064. wunderkidcayman:

Oh yeah and you just got flagged



you need too chill
TAZ don't start up with me or you could get flagged as well and I don't want to see that
Quoting 1063. wunderkidcayman:

Yeah NHC has been doing that for almost every system that formed this year gave it 10% for 5 days out nothing new there


What?!?!? Dude come back to me when you want to talk sense to me
For all I know I'm older than you so sit down
And how dare you trash talk me about devastating storms I've been through many of those hurricanes and I don't ever want to see anything like them again

Oh you coming to Cayman huh well I'll be looking for ya


Actually those days are actually quite nice it can get much worse than that with out a tropical system affecting us


I've been on lots of cruises over the years. One cruise (actually Disney cruise) the seas were 15+ feet from a Tropical Storm (in June). It seemed like everyone on the boat was getting sea sick.I wore a sea sick patch from day 1 and never got sick. But the ship was really rocking back and forth.
1070. Patrap
Lordy, acceptance comes from support and friends.

Please, let's not make Jeff's entry on a Sunday a playground for tit fo tat.

1071. Patrap
Sonia

Quoting 1066. Tazmanian:
some of you guys need too stop wishcasting its not going too form the wind shear is UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT and it looks like it will stay that way the on the wind shear may it may look Favorable but wish way is the wind shear pointing thats right its pointing at UNFAVORABLE FOR any kind of DEVELOPMENT

Shear is not too UNFAVOURABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT and shear IS FALLING as the ULL MOVES OUT and the ULAC MOVES IN so NOT TOO FAVOURABLE NOW but SOON WILL be
Quoting 1068. wunderkidcayman:
TAZ don't start up with me or you could get flagged as well and I don't want to see that





go take a break
Quoting 1072. wunderkidcayman:

Shear is not too UNFAVOURABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT and shear IS FALLING as the ULL MOVES OUT and the ULAC MOVES IN so NOT TOO FAVOURABLE NOW but SOON WILL be




its not going too form not going too happen hurricane season is overe
you all so got strong trad winds for this time of year
Quoting 1069. Sfloridacat5:


I've been on lots of cruises over the years. One cruise (actually Disney cruise) the seas were 15+ feet from a Tropical Storm (in June). It seemed like everyone on the boat was getting sea sick.I wore a sea sick patch from day 1 and never got sick. But the ship was really rocking back and forth.

Yeah back in 07 we were on a Royal Caribbean Cruise and we did pass by a TS

Quoting 1071. Patrap:
Oh you coming to Cayman huh well I'll be looking for ya

Rules of the Road

#4 Threats and intimidation will not be tolerated, and behavior of this type which extends into the real world will be dealt with by extreme action.

Oh my Patrap I was not making Threats and intimidating anyone no it was a remark of joy and happiness and that I can't wait for his arrival and I was going to invite him to the tourist attraction that me and my family own called Hell located in West Bay
Quoting 1073. Tazmanian:





go take a break

TAZ I don't need one but thanks for offering you could take one its best to try and stay away from confrontation and not try to be the hero because sometimes it backfires back to you so.. Just saying...

Quoting 1074. Tazmanian:




its not going too form not going too happen hurricane season is overe

It may it may not but if it does I'll remember to cook your crow with a lot of hot peppers

Quoting 1075. Tazmanian:
you all so got strong trad winds for this time of year

LOL you got to be joking to the max right right now the trades in the Caribbean(Central-Western Caribbean where this AOI is) got ZERO trades(0)
Anyway I'm going to go get lunch so I'll be back in a few minutes
1079. LargoFl
Hmmm tues..why?
1080. LargoFl
everyone of those east pacific storms go into the same place..more rain coming texas..
Forecast for Grand Cayman tonight.
Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and rain after midnight. Low of 79F. Breezy. Winds from the NNE at 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

Low of 79 degrees. That's really warm for a low temp at night. We get close to that in the heat of the summer here in S.W. Fl.
I must admit it was certainly very cool to pull out all my tropical weather satellite imagery to watch the solar eclipse progress in real time across the Atlantic.
1083. LargoFl
1084. LargoFl
wens-thurs for rainy storms again for texas......
Good morning everybody.

Looks like an awful and likely tragic week ahead for the typhoon prone, Southern Philippines.


Quoting 1080. LargoFl:
everyone of those east pacific storms go into the same place..more rain coming texas..


October is one of the wettest months for San Antonio Tx. It's also the month when they received the most rainfall of 18.07"

Yearly average is around 32", so they (Central/SouthCentral Texas) need these Oct. rains.

Just don't need 10 " in 1 day like area around Austin got last week.
Quoting 1053. Torito:
O_o Krosa fizzed out before it made landfall. I dont think anyone was expecting that.....

The wonders of up-welling..
1088. LargoFl
Quoting 1086. Sfloridacat5:


October is one of the wettest months for San Antonio Tx. It's also the month when they received the most rainfall of 18.07"

Yearly average is around 32", so they (Central/SouthCentral Texas) need these Oct. rains.

Just don't need 10 " in 1 day like area around Austin got last week.
so this must be their rainy season when the fronts come thru..oh yeah austin had alot of flood warnings huh.
1089. LargoFl
1090. LargoFl
well none of the models today show anything tropical hitting the US,whatever weather we get is from the fronts coming thru..normal fall here by me although later this week temps will be above average once again.
1091. LargoFl
Good morning everyone. I was just too far west to really see the solar eclipse. It sucks more that I had pretty good sky conditions to see it too. I did a blog on TS Sonia, but who cares about the EPAC.

Quoting 1081. Sfloridacat5:
Forecast for Grand Cayman tonight.
Partly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and rain after midnight. Low of 79F. Breezy. Winds from the NNE at 15 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20%.

Low of 79 degrees. That's really warm for a low temp at night. We get close to that in the heat of the summer here in S.W. Fl.

Yeah kinda the reason why I wish the S get a really cold this winter because that usually some how makes its way down here I don't really like heat but I love the cold

And I'm cooking sweating like a hog on full hot grill

Quoting 1092. wxchaser97:
Good morning everyone. I was just too far west to really see the solar eclipse. It sucks more that I had pretty good sky conditions to see it too. I did a blog on TS Sonia, but who cares about the EPAC.

I got up to see it, and would have had at least a partial view, but it was just cloudy enough as the sun came up to prevent me having a clear view. This is the best I was able to do...



However, it was a fantastic sunrise otherwise, so I still enjoyed myself. Now it's heating up like crazy, with hardly a cloud in sight... [sigh]
Remember that low in the caribbean is gonna be the next Paloma or Lenny!.hehehe.
1096. LargoFl
1097. LargoFl
really nice today..Clearwater beach.............
Quoting 1097. LargoFl:
really nice today..Clearwater beach.............
Wonder what happened to the image.

EDIT: nvm
I am Alive!! I did a 25 hour gaming marathon to raise money for a local children's hospital. I raised $165 so I feel good :P What did I miss the last 25 hours? Anything exciting? (Besides the partial eclipse this morning)
Quoting 1097. LargoFl:
really nice today..Clearwater beach.............


Weather is perfect today (Sunny, Low humidity perfect temperature). I keep going outside just to feel this nice cool North wind (15 - 30 mph).

Here's Captiva Beach shot (Ft. Myers area). Strong current going from north to south down the beach.



Quoting 1099. Doppler22:
I am Alive!! I did a 25 hour gaming marathon to raise money for a local children's hospital. I raised $165 so I feel good :P What did I miss the last 25 hours? Anything exciting? (Besides the partial eclipse this morning)
That's good for you :).No you didn't really miss anything much but some hard wishcasting for the next Paloma or Lenny like hurricane in November.But besides that the blog was quite.
good day peeps see we got a 10 percent out there


active area coming into view could be an interesting week ahead
Seems to have lost some convection. I'll keep an eye on it this week as it makes its journey across the Atlantic and nears the islands, most likely won't amount to much due to strong westerly wind shear and dry air.

1108. barbamz

Hi everyone. Tornado today in the Netherlands at Duurstede. More videos and a photo gallery here.

BTW looking "Duurstede" up by Wikipedia I found this:

Wijk bij Duurstede has the only drive-through wind mill in the world.



in 96 hrs another sweeping cold front for lakes and eastern seaboard movin in and out

Quoting 1108. barbamz:

Hi everyone. Tornado today in the Netherlands at Duurstede. More videos and a photo gallery here.

BTW looking "Duurstede" up by Wikipedia I found this:

Wijk bij Duurstede has the only drive-through wind mill in the world.

That's cool! Can't wait to go to Europe. Germany to see what is left of the Berlin Wall and the UK where I have some family. France to see the Eiffel Tower and Rome to see the Vatican City.
1112. 62901IL
I don't like the looks of this...a double hit for the Philippines....



Quoting 1107. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Seems to have lost some convection. I'll keep an eye on it this week as it makes its journey across the Atlantic and nears the islands, most likely won't amount to much due to strong westerly wind shear and dry air.



That would be like crossing the Saharan desert without a drop of water.
1114. barbamz
Quoting 1110. GTstormChaserCaleb:
That's cool! Can't wait to go to Europe. Germany to see what is left of the Berlin Wall and the UK where I have some family. France to see the Eiffel Tower and Rome to see the Vatican City.


Hope this dream will come true for you, Caleb!

Off topic, but probably a very big sensation in the world of arts if this really is true (all over German media already; estimated value: $1.35bn): BBC, Nov 3: Nazi looted art 'found in Munich' - German media
Here another report in English by Deutsche Welle English:
German authorities reportedly discover 1,500 paintings seized by Nazis.
Edit: More details now available on Daily Mail.

And this shows the bad weather coming in for the night:

Watching the Caribbean but it is more of a wait and see, not expecting a hurricane out of it at this point. I had some good thunderstorms overnight.

Turning to winter weather a cold front has gone pretty far south and is just north of me. Maybe some cooler weather? We'll see.
1116. hydrus
Quoting 1112. 62901IL:
I don't like the looks of this...a double hit for the Philippines....



More like a quadruple hit..
1117. hydrus
Quoting 1100. Sfloridacat5:


Weather is perfect today (Sunny, Low humidity perfect temperature). I keep going outside just to feel this nice cool North wind (15 - 30 mph).

Here's Captiva Beach shot (Ft. Myers area). Strong current going from north to south down the beach.



That shot made me homesick..I grew up there.
1118. Dakster
Quoting 1106. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


active area coming into view could be an interesting week ahead


Any of them coming our way, Keep?
img src="">

A lightning Composite of the T storm here in cayman last night.

Image credit to Courtney Platt
1120. hydrus
Quoting 1064. wunderkidcayman:

Oh yeah and you just got flagged
Flagged?! Oh no, did I offend your ego? And you'll be looking for me? What does that mean lol.

The weather is OUTSTANDING in Florida today! Got my windows open with a brisk breeze coming through the house. So glad hurricane season went perfectly for most of us.
Quoting 1121. FLWeatherFreak91:
Flagged?! Oh no, did I offend your ego? And you'll be looking for me? What does that mean lol.

The weather is OUTSTANDING in Florida today! Got my windows open with a brisk breeze coming through the house. So glad hurricane season went perfectly for most of us.



this went it go and move on no need too start any thing i would re move that post be for he sees it
1123. Dakster
I think taz means you should let it go, ignore it and move on...

Anyways, time to enjoy the beautiful fall day in Florida.
1124. Dakster
Quoting 1117. hydrus:
That shot made me homesick..I grew up there.


My .02 says you should look to move back then. As obviously you have not bonded with you current home. Just as if you no longer 'love' your current home, you should look to move.

I know sometimes it just isn't financially possible to do it right away, of course.
1125. Pallis
Quoting 1117. hydrus:
That shot made me homesick..I grew up there.
It is not perfect here. It was a very chilly 62 this morning, and then the sun has been out all day. Hopefully the front will come back up to cloud things a bit and bring back the humidity. Miserable air quality, I can't wait for spring. You wouldn't recognize where you grew up anyways, they have destroyed everything from Marco to N. Tampa, and replaced it with urban sprawl and random ghettos.
1126. docrod
81F in KCB Florida. Glad that DST is over.

From the Key West NWS discussion
.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1876...THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST WAS 91 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON NOVEMBER 3RD...A
RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 137 YEARS LATER. IN ADDITION...THIS HIGH
TEMPERATURE OF 91 DEGREES IS THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED
IN KEY WEST DURING THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT KEY
WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.
Quoting 1116. hydrus:
More like a quadruple hit..
Scientists have revealed plans to examine temperature changes in the Arctic Ocean after a long-term study found the Greenland Sea is warming 10 times faster than the global ocean.

Scientists from Germany's Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) analysed temperature data from the Greenland Sea between 1950 and 2010.

Their results show that during the past 30 years water temperatures between two kilometres deep and the ocean floor have risen by 0.3 degrees Celsius.


Link
1129. hydrus
Quoting 1124. Dakster:


My .02 says you should look to move back then. As obviously you have not bonded with you current home. Just as if you no longer 'love' your current home, you should look to move.

I know sometimes it just isn't financially possible to do it right away, of course.
I was born there in the 60,s. Raised there in the 70,s and 80,s..The entire state ( with a few exceptions )has changed drastically and for the worse...It will never be the same place that I grew up in..It was beautiful..There are still areas that have managed to avoid the effects of an exploding population and urban sprawl, but not many.
1131. Dakster
Quoting 1129. hydrus:
I was born there in the 60,s. Raised there in the 70,s and 80,s..The entire state ( with a few exceptions )has changed drastically and for the worse...It will never be the same place that I grew up in..It was beautiful..There are still areas that have managed to avoid the effects of an exploding population and urban sprawl, but not many.


I know... I agree... I was born, raised, and still live here.

Some areas are still what I like to call 'old Florida'. But they too are dwindling fast.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 34
3:00 AM JST November 4 2013
===================================

Chuuk waters

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 6.1N 153.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 6.7N 148.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Caroline Islands

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #63
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM KROSA (T1329)
3:00 AM JST November 4 2013
==================================

Northern South China Sea

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Krosa (996 hPa) located at 19.4N 113.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest slowly.

Gale Force Winds
==================
120 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
90 NM from the center in southeast quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 18.1N 110.9E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Northern South China Sea
48 HRS: 16.4N 108.9E - Tropical Depression In Northern South China Sea
1133. barbamz

Great performance of decoupling the low level circulation from Krosa.
I didn't bother waking up early to see partial eclipse because it was only gonna be less than 5% of sun being covered and I'm sure mountains will block the sunrise during eclipse anyway. HOWEVER, the next TRUE eclipse (call total eclipse) is in 2017. It'll go right over my birth city of Charleston and my childhood home of Moncks Corner :) who knows where I'll be on August of 2017 though especially with me entering my first year of grad school somewhere in USA.

For those who are interested in historic tornadoes, here's a fantastic blog I stumbled across a couple days ago:
http://stormstalker.wordpress.com/

The guy writes long, descriptive, and very fascinating blogs about some of the most violent and historical tornadoes and tornado outbreaks of all time, such as the 1925 Tri-State tornado, The 1965 Palm Sunday Outbreak, and the 2011 Joplin tornado, just to name a few.

I would highly recommend checking it out, if you have the time.
Quoting 1134. Bluestorm5:
I didn't bother waking up early to see partial eclipse because it was only gonna be less than 5% of sun being covered and I'm sure mountains will block the sunrise during eclipse anyway. HOWEVER, the next TRUE eclipse (call total eclipse) is in 2017. It'll go right over my birth city of Charleston and my childhood home of Moncks Corner :) who knows where I'll be on August of 2017 though especially with me entering my first year of grad school somewhere in USA.



Well, you can't go to Hopkinsville (longest eclipse time in 2017) anymore, all the hotel rooms for that eclipse have been booked. But the next best slot is Nashville. Music City. I know I'll be in college, but I'll catch a flight back down to Nashville for the eclipse.
Quoting 1136. Astrometeor:


Well, you can't go to Hopkinsville (longest eclipse time in 2017) anymore, all the hotel rooms for that eclipse have been booked. But the next best slot is Nashville. Music City. I know I'll be in college, but I'll catch a flight back down to Nashville for the eclipse.


My mom's family still own the old plantation they have since 1700s and ton of acres of land around Moncks Corner as well so I got lot of land to observe the eclipse there without being annoyed by people. My aunt got a home on land I can stay at during the eclipse.

Btw, I'm considering minoring astronomy or at least take few classes. UNCA got a observation being built on top of this mountain campus is located on. It should be open early 2014 during winter :) The cool thing is that the roof opens, I think.

Link

Link
Quoting 1137. Bluestorm5:


My mom's family still own the old plantation they have since 1700s and ton of acres of land around Moncks Corner as well so I got lot of land to observe the eclipse there without being annoyed by people. My aunt got a home on land I can stay at during the eclipse.

Btw, I'm considering minoring astronomy or at least take few classes. UNCA got a observation being built on top of this mountain campus is located on. It should be open early 2014 during winter :) The cool thing is that the roof opens, I think.

http://www.unca.edu/news-events/news/2012/4/unc-a sheville-partners-astronomy-club-asheville-build-s tar-gazing-lab-novel

http://news.unca.edu/faq-astronomy-laboratory-obs ervatory


I know a lawyer out west of Nashville with a shed that houses his telescopic equipment, and the roof rolls on/off. For an observatory, either the roof has some way to have an opening (most use shutters), or you have to have some way to protect the scopes from the weather. But yeah, you should be good then.

My father graduated from Case Western being the only person with a BS in Astronomy (he likes to brag he was first in his class, because Astronomy is the first to be announced on the stage at graduation). The math is killer. Not sure how it compares against meteorology, though.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SONIA ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013
100 PM PST SUN NOV 03 2013

...SONIA HEADING TOWARD MAINLAND MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM PST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 109.1W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSW OF CULIACAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
TROPICAL STORM SONIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013
100 PM PST SUN NOV 03 2013

SONIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THIS MORNING.
VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT THE CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE
SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...HOWEVER THE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THAT THE CIRCULATION MAY BE BECOMING ELONGATED IN A
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. IT APPEARS THAT SONIA
HAS REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY SINCE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. THIS IS
LIKELY TO CAUSE SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING BEFORE SONIA MAKES LANDFALL.
RAPID WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER LANDFALL AND SONIA IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXICO BY TUESDAY EVENING.

SONIA HAS TURNED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND BEGUN TO ACCELERATE...WITH
AN INITIAL MOTION OF 015/12 KT. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AHEAD OF A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND THE NHC FORECAST IS AGAIN ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM SONIA IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 21.4N 109.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 23.3N 108.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 25.3N 106.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Quoting 1090. LargoFl:
well none of the models today show anything tropical hitting the US,whatever weather we get is from the fronts coming thru..normal fall here by me although later this week temps will be above average once again.
Not so fast. Still predicting 4 - 2 - 1 for the period Nov 8 through DEC. 12. I have designated this the New Primary Atlantic Hurricane Season. I base this on absolutely nothing. However, I am usually right. Be prepared.
1142. barbamz

Another tornado video from today taken in Arnhem/Netherlands. (See post#1108)
1143. barbamz

Wow, nearly no convection to speak of in the whole US besides Texas (Texas!)? No wonder that it's very quiet today on our blog.
Quoting 1141. eyewallblues:
Not so fast. Still predicting 4 - 2 - 1 for the period Nov 8 through DEC. 12. I have designated this the New Primary Atlantic Hurricane Season. I base this on absolutely nothing. However, I am usually right. Be prepared.
Great! God bless you
Quoting 1143. barbamz:

Wow, nearly no convection to speak of in the whole US besides Texas (Texas!)? No wonder that it's very quiet today on our blog.


That, and it's Sunday. American football games currently on. I'm watching the Tennessee Titans take on the St. Louis Rams.
1146. barbamz
Quoting 1145. Astrometeor:


That, and it's Sunday. American football games currently on. I'm watching the Tennessee Titans take on the St. Louis Rams.


Ahh, football. That explains it all, lol. And I thought everybody was outdoors enjoying some great weather.
Have fun, Astro, and may your favorite team win!


Webcam Riverview FL.
Quoting 1146. barbamz:


Ahh, football. That explains it all, lol. Have fun, and may your favorite team win!


Thanks, and we (Titans) did in fact just win, 28-21.


4 storms, not bad. Well, I don't think Krosa counts anymore...
Quoting 1141. eyewallblues:
Not so fast. Still predicting 4 - 2 - 1 for the period Nov 8 through DEC. 12. I have designated this the New Primary Atlantic Hurricane Season. I base this on absolutely nothing. However, I am usually right. Be prepared.



LOL you be vary vary wrong with that
Quoting 1066. Tazmanian:
some of you guys need too stop wishcasting its not going too form the wind shear is UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT and it looks like it will stay that way the on the wind shear may it may look Favorable but wish way is the wind shear pointing thats right its pointing at UNFAVORABLE FOR any kind of DEVELOPMENT

I'm so ready for 2014...
1150. flsky
Quoting 1137. Bluestorm5:


My mom's family still own the old plantation they have since 1700s and ton of acres of land around Moncks Corner as well so I got lot of land to observe the eclipse there without being annoyed by people. My aunt got a home on land I can stay at during the eclipse.

Btw, I'm considering minoring astronomy or at least take few classes. UNCA got a observation being built on top of this mountain campus is located on. It should be open early 2014 during winter :) The cool thing is that the roof opens, I think.

Link

Link

Might check an English class - just sayin....
Been busy uploading pictures all day..
:)

10 pictures
Quoting 1149. opal92nwf:

I'm so ready for 2014...




I'm pulling for Feb 1899 re-visiting.
Quoting 1149. opal92nwf:

I'm so ready for 2014...



you may need too wait tell 2015 if we get a EL nino for 2014 season
Quoting 1153. Tazmanian:



you may need too wait tell 2015 if we get a EL nino for 2014 season


But, then EPac will be interesting! Let's take this one season at a time, everyone.
1155. txjac
Quoting 1152. PensacolaDoug:




I'm pulling for Feb 1899 re-visiting.


And here is what would be happening weather-wise

February 1899: The Worst Cold Snap in North American History

Link

Jo
Quoting 1135. Ameister12:
For those who are interested in historic tornadoes, here's a fantastic blog I stumbled across a couple days ago:
http://stormstalker.wordpress.com/

The guy writes long, descriptive, and very fascinating blogs about some of the most violent and historical tornadoes and tornado outbreaks of all time, such as the 1925 Tri-State tornado, The 1965 Palm Sunday Outbreak, and the 2011 Joplin tornado, just to name a few.

I would highly recommend checking it out, if you have the time.

I wonder how strong winds have to be to do this:

Quoting 1156. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I wonder how strong winds have to be to do this:



I'd say above 50 mph, if I had to take a concrete stab at it.

:-)
Quoting 1153. Tazmanian:



you may need too wait tell 2015 if we get a EL nino for 2014 season

I highly doubt that it will be less active than 2013, whatever the El nino/neutral/la nina situation is.

We're also most likely going to have a major
1159. barbamz
With this short but hilarious and amazing little glimpse a good night and smooth start into the new week!


Published, Oct. 28, 2013
The Nautilus team spotted this fast Neon Flying Squid woosh past Argus Cam on their dive to Montserrat.
Quoting 1157. Astrometeor:


I'd say above 50 mph, if I had to take a concrete stab at it.

:-)



I see what you did there.
Quoting 1156. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I wonder how strong winds have to be to do this:

ef3 or greater
Quoting 1156. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I wonder how strong winds have to be to do this:


Only a tornado like Joplin would be able to rip up huge parking stops which were rebarred to asphalt.
1163. beell
Tropical storm force winds across Kansas this afternoon.
Many locations with sustained southerly winds of 40 mph, gusting to 55 mph.
Link
Quoting 1152. PensacolaDoug:




I'm pulling for Feb 1899 re-visiting.

Is that what people are speculating? That would be fun to have blizzard conditions in parts of Florida. Although all my palms and citrus and other tropical plants would probably die here in the Panhandle. They already suffer through the winters here as it is.
There's nothing really significant going on the US right now (weather-wise)...
31W is another future strong typhoon in the making.

Anyone think the NHC will up the AOI in the Caribbean to 20%, then 30% within 5 days?
Quoting 1168. stormpetrol:
Anyone think the NHC will up the AOI in the Caribbean to 20%, then 30% within 5 days?
It will probably do up to 80% and work it's way back to o%
Quoting 1168. stormpetrol:
Anyone think the NHC will up the AOI in the Caribbean to 20%, then 30% within 5 days?
think it will be the same or lowered to zero
Computer being weird, but I fixed it I think

Anyway, good morning 31W

Quoting 1169. sebastianflorida:
It will probably do up to 80% and work it's way back to o%


not while its turning the wrong way it won't

the motion is clockwise it has to be counter clockwise


1174. Dakster
Quoting 1156. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I wonder how strong winds have to be to do this:



Obviously a nasty storm/tornado/hurricane, but not as strong as you would think. There is still asphalt on the ground. Strong tornados have been known to rip up the asphalt.
1175. Pallis
Quoting 1156. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I wonder how strong winds have to be to do this:

Tornadoes do strange things. Apparently the wind is very localized and sometimes spread out far. I remember driving by this rather large newer model riding lawn mower in a ditch. It looked rather repairable, but no one bothered to pull it out because it obviously belonged to someone, and Mena Ar. is full of honest people for the most part. So many people drove down this St., that I had to wonder how far that thing whirled/levitated. That one definitely split in two in a couple of places because on the N. side of town there was a 100 year old shack with devastation N. and S. of it. Out there they put a touch of God in every story, but the stories are real nonetheless.
Quoting 1137. Bluestorm5:


Btw, I'm considering minoring astronomy or at least take few classes. UNCA got a observation being built on top of this mountain campus is located on. It should be open early 2014 during winter :) The cool thing is that the roof opens, I think.


If you haven't been check out PARI..Pisgah Astrological Research Institute.
It's close to you, on the north edge of Rosman. Lot of great opportunities for students to get involved & work on not just software but the hardware equipment too. Viewing there is incredible. Saw the Milky Way the other week there. Got some big telescopes & such.

1177. Pallis
Quoting 1173. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


not while its turning the wrong way it won't

the motion is clockwise it has to be counter clockwise


Could someone please page Aussiestorm and have him explain how these things work? Just in case, ask him which way his toilet is flushing.
Quoting 1177. Pallis:
Could someone please page Aussiestorm and have him explain how these things work? Just in case, ask him which way his toilet is flushing.
I just checked mine its normal so a pole flip is not the reason
1179. Dakster
Quoting 1178. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
I just checked mine its normal so a pole flip is not the reason


Aren't you in Toronto? Wouldn't your toilet swirl the same direction as everyone in CONUS?
1180. hydrus
Quoting 1152. PensacolaDoug:




I'm pulling for Feb 1899 re-visiting.
Probably due to Anthropological Global Warming....:)
Quoting 1177. Pallis:
Could someone please page Aussiestorm and have him explain how these things work? Just in case, ask him which way his toilet is flushing.


Which way your toilet flushes actually is unrelated to the Earth's spin. The vortex is too small to be affected.
Quoting 1179. Dakster:


Aren't you in Toronto? Wouldn't your toilet swirl the same direction as everyone in CONUS?
yes but if the poles flip it will spin the other way and so will everyone else's in the conus
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SONIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013
400 PM PST SUN NOV 03 2013

...SONIA MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD MAINLAND MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM PST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 108.5W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM 3SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSW OF CULIACAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
Something is cooking in the Caribbean,in my opinion,let's wait and see if this continues.
Quoting 1173. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


not while its turning the wrong way it won't

the motion is clockwise it has to be counter clockwise


Here's the upper level steering map... That motion you see is just the tops of the convection being sheared in an anticyclonic direction

...and I'm not suggesting any development will come of this area...
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST SUN NOV 3 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS NOT EXPECTED WHILE IT DRIFTS WESTWARD OR
SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
well NHC 7pm TWO will be out soon lets see what they say I guess
I wouldn't be surprised if the circle is gone in two TWOs... the area of vorticity has really fallen apart over the past 9 hours:



Source: CIMSS
Quoting 1186. Civicane49:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST SUN NOV 3 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS NOT EXPECTED WHILE IT DRIFTS WESTWARD OR
SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
Mmmm I will be really surprise if this develop into a td and I would even be more surprise if this develop into a ts.
The LLC of the Caribbean AOI is actually around 16.5N/76W, The anticyclonic flow aloft is probably insulating to a certain extent from high shear or it would have torn the LLC apart already, just sayin...
Quoting 1188. FLWeatherFreak91:
I wouldn't be surprised if the circle is gone in two TWOs... the area of vorticity has really fallen apart over the past 9 hours:



Source: CIMSS

Those are steering layer maps. These are the vorticity maps:

1192. TropicalAnalystwx13

Thank you TA13!
Quoting 1192. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Those are steering layer maps. These are the vorticity maps:



What's that spin in the EPac (other than Sonia)?
1195. Patrap
CBS October 28, 2013, 5:47 AM

Climate change may make coastal flooding like Sandy's more frequent


1196. Patrap
All Tropical Cyclone Imagery - Storm Floaters

West Pacific

30W
31W
Krosa

30W RGB Loop

Quoting 1194. Astrometeor:


What's that spin in the EPac (other than Sonia)?

Nothing important.

1198. hydrus
Quoting 1181. Astrometeor:


Which way your toilet flushes actually is unrelated to the Earth's spin. The vortex is too small to be affected.
Lol..
Quoting 1151. Articuno:
Been busy uploading pictures all day..
:)

10 pictures
Me too... I need to go look at urs... lol

PAGASA has named this crappy storm "Wilma".



I was hoping 31W, forecast to become a Category 4 equivalent, would get the name. But no...

Good night everyone. I'll check in on the Caribbean area of interest tomorrow, but I'd say Lorenzo was our last.

1202. Dakster
Quoting 1182. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
yes but if the poles flip it will spin the other way and so will everyone else's in the conus


What if they only partially flip? Would still like to make sure that they are working in the land down under.
Quoting 1200. TropicalAnalystwx13:
PAGASA has named this crappy storm "Wilma".



I was hoping 31W, forecast to become a Category 4 equivalent, would get the name. But no...



Weren't you complaining about whiners on chat earlier? Hypocrite.

:)



Shear steadily decreasing!




850mb and 700 mb vort more in line now than earlier!

Not saying this will develop, but conditions seem to be improving.
1206. Pallis
Quoting 1181. Astrometeor:


Which way your toilet flushes actually is unrelated to the Earth's spin. The vortex is too small to be affected.
The earths spin? No. Which way your toilet flushes is regulated by which side of the equator you reside upon with more than a few factors to deal with (lets assume that the jets are neutral). The earth's spin is controlled by the universe, but it just part of the mechanism of the magnetic poles(more than two right now). Ascher Shapiro proved a part of this semi complex theorem back in the old days. Think of the Earth as a naturally charging magnet in a perfect atmosphere for experimentation, except you happen to be the bacteria clinging to it.
Sonia weakened to 35 kts.

EP, 18, 2013110400, , BEST, 0, 225N, 1085W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 30, 0, 30, 1008, 180, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, SONIA, M,
1208. Dakster
Quoting 1206. Pallis:
The earths spin? No. Which way your toilet flushes is regulated by which side of the equator you reside upon with more than a few factors to deal with (lets assume that the jets are neutral). The earth's spin is controlled by the universe, but it just part of the mechanism of the magnetic poles(more than two right now). Ascher Shapiro proved a part of this semi complex theorem back in the old days. Think of the Earth as a naturally charging magnet in a perfect atmosphere for experimentation, except you happen to be the bacteria clinging to it.


Such an eloquent way of putting it.
Quoting 1206. Pallis:
The earths spin? No. Which way your toilet flushes is regulated by which side of the equator you reside upon with more than a few factors to deal with (lets assume that the jets are neutral). The earth's spin is controlled by the universe, but it just part of the mechanism of the magnetic poles(more than two right now). Ascher Shapiro proved a part of this semi complex theorem back in the old days. Think of the Earth as a naturally charging magnet in a perfect atmosphere for experimentation, except you happen to be the bacteria clinging to it.
What he meant was is that the toilet's direction of spin DOES NOT have anything to do with what side of the equator you are on. The design of the ceramic dictates which way the water goes down -_-

There is an abundance of misinformation on here...
Quoting 1204. stormpetrol:



Shear steadily decreasing!




850mb and 700 mb vort more in line now than earlier!

Not saying this will develop, but conditions seem to be improving.

Conditions is getting better
And you know it just may develop


Yes upper level wind are becoming more favourable as the ULL has now weakened down to a trof and is lifting out of the Caribbean now the upper level anticyclone is taking over giving lower shear shear conditions and this I'm expecting to continue

Quoting 1211. wunderkidcayman:

Conditions is getting better
And you know it just may develop


Yes upper level wind are becoming more favourable as the ULL has now weakened down to a trof and is lifting out of the Caribbean now the upper level anticyclone is taking over giving lower shear shear conditions and this I'm expecting to continue


Well it could develop
Quoting 1211. wunderkidcayman:

Conditions is getting better
And you know it just may develop


Yes upper level wind are becoming more favourable as the ULL has now weakened down to a trof and is lifting out of the Caribbean now the upper level anticyclone is taking over giving lower shear shear conditions and this I'm expecting to continue

That anticyclone is strengthening, but upper divergence will decrease as we go forward in time, and I don't see anything that will act to force convection.

Quoting 1152. PensacolaDoug:




I'm pulling for Feb 1899 re-visiting.


I'm pulling for Feb 2010 myself. Feb 1899 it didn't get above 11 degrees for 5 consecutive days here. That's MEAN cold!
Quoting 1211. wunderkidcayman:

Conditions is getting better
And you know it just may develop


Yes upper level wind are becoming more favourable as the ULL has now weakened down to a trof and is lifting out of the Caribbean now the upper level anticyclone is taking over giving lower shear shear conditions and this I'm expecting to continue



Conditions is better. Look at the spin. You can tell!

1216. Pallis
Quoting 1208. Dakster:


Such an eloquent way of putting it.
The only way I could put it without writing a book. Sorry about the game results,yeesh.Lord knows I love the Canes. Coach Golden summed it up though. Ducks from Oregon and scary gators. I am more worrisome of Bama.
If a storm is turning the wrong way, does that mean it has a negative chance at developing?

Quoting 1210. FLWeatherFreak91:
What he meant was is that the toilet's direction of spin DOES NOT have anything to do with what side of the equator you are on. The design of the ceramic dictates which way the water goes down -_-

There is an abundance of misinformation on here...


You know what I meant, thank you.
Another thing anyone notices that NHC has a change in voice with our AOI
First they said this

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT

Now they say

SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS NOT EXPECTED

Which leaves a loophole that it may actually develop and if this trend continues NHC may actually start saying that it may develop and also increase probability some time in the early week ... Just sayin...
Quoting 1213. FLWeatherFreak91:
That anticyclone is strengthening, but upper divergence will decrease as we go forward in time, and I don't see anything that will act to force convection.


How about something called the MJO you ever thought of that
Anyway I'll see you jokers later I'm out for now
1221. Dakster
Quoting 1216. Pallis:
The only way I could put it without writing a book. Sorry about the game results,yeesh.Lord knows I love the Canes. Coach Golden summed it up though. Ducks from Oregon and scary gators. I am more worrisome of Bama.


It's all good... I say bring on the cold. Let it snow in South Florida.
1222. Pallis
Quoting 1210. FLWeatherFreak91:
What he meant was is that the toilet's direction of spin DOES NOT have anything to do with what side of the equator you are on. The design of the ceramic dictates which way the water goes down -_-

There is an abundance of misinformation on here...
Ascher Shapiro. That would be the part I was referring to. I have also done my own experiments and you can too.
Quoting 1206. Pallis:
The earths spin? No. Which way your toilet flushes is regulated by which side of the equator you reside upon with more than a few factors to deal with (lets assume that the jets are neutral). The earth's spin is controlled by the universe, but it just part of the mechanism of the magnetic poles(more than two right now). Ascher Shapiro proved a part of this semi complex theorem back in the old days. Think of the Earth as a naturally charging magnet in a perfect atmosphere for experimentation, except you happen to be the bacteria clinging to it.



Quoting 1218. wunderkidcayman:
Another thing anyone notices that NHC has a change in voice with our AOI
First they said this

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT

Now they say

SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS NOT EXPECTED

Which leaves a loophole that it may actually develop and if this trend continues NHC may actually start saying that it may develop and also increase probability some time in the early week ... Just sayin...
This is sure to turn into the next Lenny or Paloma!.Ha ha ha...
NAM actually has something

Quoting 1215. GeoffreyWPB:


Conditions is better. Look at the spin. You can tell!



How its not named yet is beyond me
GFS being odd. I'm ignoring the GEM

Quoting 1226. VAbeachhurricanes:


How its not named yet is beyond me
I know.And where is it headed?.The Cayman's,Florida?.Oh they better batten down the hatches.LOL.
Anywho high of 49 expected tomorrow...
JTWC peak intensity of now Tropical Storm Haiyan is up to 125kts.

1230. Pallis
Quoting 1223. Jedkins01:



Cat seems to be enjoying science with a stick glued to his back ... hehe heh. Seriously, we are approaching the end of the hurricane season with an anticyclone zeroing in on Antigua. Your thoughts?
Quoting 1227. BaltimoreBrian:
GFS being odd. I'm ignoring the GEM



its at 384 hours out ...
Quoting 1226. VAbeachhurricanes:


How its not named yet is beyond me


I know! Not even an invest! What is wrong with those people at the NHC? All of our Cayman Island friends say this will develope. We shall see.
Quoting 1227. BaltimoreBrian:
GFS being odd. I'm ignoring the GEM



You're right. Usually, at 384, the GFS would be showing a Wilma heading into the GOM. Very strange indeed.
Quoting 1232. GeoffreyWPB:


I know! Not even an invest! What is wrong with those people at the NHC? All of our Cayman Island friends say this will develope. We shall see.


this will not be developing conditions are extremely unfavorable for development. and even if by some miracle it did develop it wouldn't last more than a day or two..
I thought two 997 mb lows on either side of the isthmus was odd.
1236. beell
Quoting 1230. Pallis:
Cat seems to be enjoying science with a stick glued to his back ... hehe heh. Seriously, we are approaching the end of the hurricane season with an anticyclone zeroing in on Antigua. Your thoughts?


no fear. anti-cylone and anti-gua cancel out.
Quoting 1235. BaltimoreBrian:
I thought two 997 mb lows on either side of the isthmus was odd.


Oh. I didn't even see the other low.
Quoting 1236. beell:


no fear. anti-cylone and anti-gua cancel out.


I heard from the interwebs that you are correct, because the guy on his webpage said hes an expert, and he must be right.
Quoting 1186. Civicane49:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST SUN NOV 3 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS NOT EXPECTED WHILE IT DRIFTS WESTWARD OR
SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.


Good evening everyone

If there is a cistern on this island that's not full right now then they have a problem! I've dried out all the towels and they are stacked waiting for the next round of rain. Total of 8 inches in the last 24 hours so I'm not complaining. Hopefully CaribBoy did as well as we did!

Lindy
Beautiful night here in Lake Worth. Mild and windy. Took the pup out for a longer than normal walk. Love it!
The JTWC has upgraded Tropical Depression 31W to Tropical Storm Haiyan. It's forecast to strengthen quickly over the coming days and reach a peak intensity of 125kt (145 mph) just prior to crossing the southern Philippines.

EDIT: And I completely missed post #1229 before posting this...

You'd think a El Nino of significant strength had decided to suddenly appear in the Pacific for the amount of activity the typhoon season has been experiencing in the last month.

TS Haiyan.



I'll go out on a limb at say anywhere from 125-140kt peak.
Is that an eyewall forming? Philippines are screwed.

Cybr, is there a phonetic spelling of Haiyan? The last several storms in the Pacific and Indian oceans I've mispronounced.
Quoting 1242. CybrTeddy:
You'd think a El Nino of significant strength had decided to suddenly appear in the Pacific for the amount of activity the typhoon season has been experiencing in the last month.

TS Haiyan.



I'll go out on a limb at say anywhere from 125-140kt peak.

Speaking of El Nino, an active EPac late in the season and an active subtropical jetsream in the United States are also things usually seen during an El Nino that we are seeing right now. Very interesting to see these things all occurring simultaneously without the tropical Pacific warming.
Quoting 1247. KoritheMan:
Blog update on Sonia, for those who care. Likely to be my last on that motherlode of fail.


I care.

Not going to write a final good-bye blog? Do you realize how much Sonia is going through right now! How can you be so cold!
You know you're right.
I see what you mean
So...what they're really saying is that insignifigant development IS indeed expected!!
.
Give the NHC forecasters a grammatical break though. It's been a long season and nerves are frazzled over the unprecedented Mexican avocado weather season that we've seen.
Quoting 1218. wunderkidcayman:
Another thing anyone notices that NHC has a change in voice with our AOI
First they said this

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT

Now they say

SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS NOT EXPECTED

Which leaves a loophole that it may actually develop and if this trend continues NHC may actually start saying that it may develop and also increase probability some time in the early week ... Just sayin...

Quoting 1248. Astrometeor:


I care.

Not going to write a final good-bye blog? Do you realize how much Sonia is going through right now! How can you be so cold!


I have no conscience.
Looks like the Gulf of Guinea ghost cyclone has returned. :P
Good Evening Class!
Quoting 1251. Ameister12:
Looks like the Gulf of Guinea ghost cyclone has returned. :P


Scramble the jets! There is an illegal storm in the Atlantic!

:p
I would start feeling like I'm getting a cold when off day 1 of 3 starts tomorrow (today for EST)...
Quoting 1254. KoritheMan:
I would start feeling like I'm getting a cold when off day 1 of 3 starts tomorrow (today for EST)...


Blame Isaac, he's been congested recently as well.
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILMA
11:00 AM PhST November 4 2013
===================================

Tropical depression “Wilma” has maintained its strength as it continues to move westward towards caraga region

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Wilma (1000 hPa) located at 9.0N 126.6E or 75 km north northeast of Hinatuan, Surigao Del Sur has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 10 knots.

Signal Warnings
===================

Signal Warning #1

Visayas Region
-----------------

1. Southern part of Negros Occidental
2. Southern part of Negros Oriental
3. Southern Cebu
4. Siquijor
5. Bohol
6. Southern Leyte

Mindanao Region
-----------------

1. Dinagat Island
2. Surigao Del Norte
3. Siargao Island
4. Surigao Del Sur
5. Agusan Del Norte
6. Agusan Del Sur
7. Misamis Oriental
8. Misamis Occidental
9. Camiguin Island
10. Northern part of Zamboanga Del Norte

Additional Information
========================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 10.0-25.0 mm per hour (heavy to intense) within the 300 km diameter of the tropical depression.

Areas under Public Storm Warning Signal #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 AM EST MON NOV 4 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS.
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS NOT EXPECTED WHILE IT DRIFTS
WESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
Quoting 1241. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The JTWC has upgraded Tropical Depression 31W to Tropical Storm Haiyan. It's forecast to strengthen quickly over the coming days and reach a peak intensity of 125kt (145 mph) just prior to crossing the southern Philippines.

EDIT: And I completely missed post #1229 before posting this...

I thought the name Haiyan was given by the JMA not by the JTWC.
Quoting 1259. allancalderini:
I thought the name Haiyan was given by the JMA not by the JTWC.


They do. JMA assigns the names once they reach tropical storm strength.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM SONIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013
1000 PM PST SUN NOV 03 2013

...SONIA APPROACHING THE COAST OF SINALOA MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM PST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 107.8W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSW OF CULIACAN MEXICO
ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM WNW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
Continuing to keep an eye on this wave near the Cape-Verde Islands...have a goodnight everyone.

When do you guys think twc will change their look?
I think November 6th,2013.
EP, 18, 2013110406, , BEST, 0, 245N, 1074W, 35, 1002, TS
Quoting 1262. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Continuing to keep an eye on this wave near the Cape-Verde Islands...have a goodnight everyone.

Very interesting to even see a wave of that size and moisture in the EPac at this time of year...
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #67
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM KROSA (T1329)
15:00 PM JST November 4 2013
==================================

Northern South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Krosa (1002 hPa) located at 17.7N 111.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 12 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==================
120 NM from the center in northwest quadrant
90 NM from the center in southeast quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 13.0N 107.6E - Tropical Depression Overland Vietnam
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
Storm Warning
TROPICAL STORM HAIYAN (T1330)
15:00 PM JST November 4 2013
===================================

Chuuk waters

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Haiyan (1000 hPa) located at 6.2N 150.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 15 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
60 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 7.8N 145.5E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Caroline Islands
48 HRS: 9.2N 140.6E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Caroline Islands
72 HRS: 10.9N 133.5E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
Quoting 1263. Andrebrooks:
When do you guys think twc will change their look?
I think November 6th,2013.


on nov 12 won't be telling you the source of that info though..
Winds 20-30MPH sustained tomorrow for Miami Dade Co. FL
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35
15:00 PM JST November 4 2013
===================================

Mindanao Region

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 9.4N 124.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 15 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 9.3N 119.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sulu Sea
Did Krosa went poof due to upwelling?

I call storms like Haiyan "lowriders" because they stick close to the equator, striking the southern Philippine islands.

Apart from Haiyan, Krosa and 30W, there are still 3 AOIs in the WPac.


Krosa, 30W(WILMA), and Haiyan(pre-YOLANDA)
Temps here in Orlando jumped from 61 to 68 between mid night and 3am as a strong NE wind surge moved in. Feeling a lot more moist as well.
Just looked at the sea surface anomalies across the equatorial pacific and it appears El Niño is forming very fast now. Significant jump in sea surface anomalies over the last 6 days
Quoting 1275. StormTrackerScott:
Just looked at the sea surface anomalies across the equatorial pacific and it appears El Niño is forming very fast now. Significant jump in sea surface anomalies over the last 6 days
Can we expect an active WPac season next year?

This year has 30-ish named storms thus far.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SONIA ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013
100 AM PST MON NOV 04 2013

...SONIA MOVES INLAND OVER SINALOA AND WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM PST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 107.3W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SE OF CULIACAN MEXICO
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM NNW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SONIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013
100 AM PST MON NOV 04 2013

SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF SONIA REACHED THE
COAST OF SINALOA NEAR THE CITY OF EL DORADO ROUGHLY AROUND 0500
UTC...AND THE CYCLONE WAS STILL PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF 35-KT
WINDS NEAR THE COAST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT THAT TIME.
NOW THAT THE CENTER AND ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAVE MOVED
INLAND...SONIA IS PROBABLY NO LONGER PRODUCING SUSTAINED TROPICAL-
STORM-FORCE WINDS...AND IT IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION ON
THIS ADVISORY. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED FROM THIS POINT FORWARD
DUE TO INTERACTION WITH MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AND VERY STRONG SHEAR.
EVEN THOUGH THE NHC FORECAST PROVIDES A 12-HOUR REMNANT LOW
POSITION...SONIA COULD VERY WELL HAVE DISSIPATED BY THAT TIME AS
SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.

SONIA WAS MOVING QUICKLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN 15-20 KT BEFORE
IT REACHED LAND...BUT IT IS NOW SLOWING DOWN CONSIDERABLY WITH AN
ESTIMATED MOTION OF 030/8 KT. AN EVEN SLOWER NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED BEFORE DISSIPATION DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
BECOMING BLOCKED BY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

EVEN THOUGH SONIA IS WEAKENING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SINALOA...WESTERN DURANGO...AND
SOUTHERN CHIHUAHUA THROUGH THE DAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 24.6N 107.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 04/1800Z 25.0N 107.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG
1279. MPI88
Quoting 1206. Pallis:
The earths spin? No. Which way your toilet flushes is regulated by which side of the equator you reside upon with more than a few factors to deal with (lets assume that the jets are neutral).


Astrometeor is right. The direction your toilet flushes is not affected by the Coriolis force.

In fact, the Rossby number of a toilet swirl is about 10,000. That means the influence of the inertial forces are about 10,000 times larger than the Coriolis force.

Rossby = Flow Velocity / (length of wave * earths rotation velocity)

The influence of the Coriolis force on toilet swirls is negligible. In fact, the influence of the Coriolis force on atmospheric / oceanic waves shorter than 40 to 80 kilometers is usually negligible.

1280. beell
I have even seen this very blog spin to the left and right on the way down the drain. Coriolis did not appear to be a factor either.
1281. LargoFl
Good Morning folks!.....................
1282. LargoFl
1283. beell
Quoting 1282. LargoFl:


Tie those two lows together in the Caribbean and you have a model's representation of a SW/NE surface trough.
1284. barbamz
Good morning. Remember our costly "European flooding" some months earlier? Took a while to reopen this important train line ...

ICE trains restart Hannover - Berlin route
Published: 04 Nov 2013 09:19 GMT 01:00
High speed ICE trains were back in action between Hannover and Berlin on Monday, five months after floods forced operators to shut the line. The connection is one of the busiest in the country.
Prolonged flooding hit stretches of central and eastern Germany in June, causing millions of euros in damage and forcing tens of thousands from their homes. The high speed train line between Hannover and Berlin has been unusable ever since, causing delays as services are routed around a damaged levee. ...
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's 50 degrees and only 45 degree dew point. A very nice 83% humidity. Louisiana is definitely into Fall.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Andouille sausage and shrimp scramble, regular or whole wheat English muffins with poached egg whites, low fat cheese, ham, tomato and sauce, egg burritos with cheese and chorizo, fluffy scrambled eggs with ricotta and brocolini, Warm grapefruit and orange with toasted coconut, waffles with syrup, bacon or thick slices of fried or cold honey ham, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!
strong ne winds with some drizzle this morning temp. is like the a/c is turned on full blast. e cen florida
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST MON NOV 4 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS NOT EXPECTED WHILE IT DRIFTS
WESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.


Tropical depression Korsa.....?
1290. barbamz

NASA Earthobservatory: Image of the day

Upsala Glacier Retreat
This photograph by an astronaut on the International Space Station highlights the snout of the Upsala Glacier (49.88°S, 73.3°W) on the Argentine side of the North Patagonian Icefield. ...
Remotely sensed data, including astronaut images, have recorded the position of the ice front over the years. A comparison of this October 2013 image with older data (January 2004 and January 2001, as well as October 2009) indicates that the ice front has moved backwards—upstream—about 3 kilometers (2 miles). This retreat is believed by scientists to indicate climate warming in this part of South America. The warming not only causes the ice mass to retreat, but also to thin. A study of 63 glaciers by Rignot et al has shown that this is a general trend in Patagonia. ...

Whole article see link above.
It is currently 28 degrees at my house and it is 36 at R.N.A.Why couldn't these be the highs for today? :(.High if 48 expected.
1293. barbamz


The wave train via ITCZ for the northern hemisphere seems to be broken now, and no further supply from Africa is available. Severe drought in southwestern Africa (Namibia) is still persisting:

1294. Torito
Quoting 1255. Civicane49:


GFS shows a major now, eh.......
This might get interesting.
1295. StormWx
Quoting Dr Masters:
Taking all these factors into account, I predict that the Atlantic hurricane season of 2013 is over.


Pretty much sums it up for the year. Doubtful anything will form in Caribbean and certainly the Gulf is shut down. Southeast looks pretty dry the next 5 days. Looks like the model casters will have to keep looking 15 days out for fantasy storms lol, no major hurricane here.



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST MON NOV 4 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A BROAD AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS NOT EXPECTED WHILE IT DRIFTS
WESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
1296. Pallis
Quoting 1279. MPI88:


Astrometeor is right. The direction your toilet flushes is not affected by the Coriolis force.

In fact, the Rossby number of a toilet swirl is about 10,000. That means the influence of the inertial forces are about 10,000 times larger than the Coriolis force.

Rossby = Flow Velocity / (length of wave * earths rotation velocity)

The influence of the Coriolis force on toilet swirls is negligible. In fact, the influence of the Coriolis force on atmospheric / oceanic waves shorter than 40 to 80 kilometers is usually negligible.

That was my point. He was trying to say that the Coriolis, which is caused by the earths spin, eventually, was the driving factor. The jets were proven to be the case in most of John Crappers fancy seats, but that is not the case for example in your sink or any homemade basin without directional curves and a round hole at the bottom.
1297. Torito
Sonia:

1298. Torito
Haiyan looks like it will turn devastating.

1299. Torito
Krosa's naked swirl.

1300. Torito
30W

1301. Patrap




1302. Torito
No model agreement at all.




1303. Torito
Quoting 1301. Patrap:






ninja'd me.

1304. Torito
IMAGE OF THE DAY:



Yesterday, a rare solar eclipse took place, which allowed a view of the Sun that is totally or partially blocked by the Moon. First, it was visible in the southern United States, before sweeping east across the Atlantic Ocean and the African continent. According to US space agency NASA, the greatest total eclipse occurred over the Atlantic Ocean.



This image is from SC, near a beach. the photographer is standing right in front of the beach with the water at the far end of the photo. The sun appears to be dripping into the ocean.
Quoting 1294. Torito:


GFS shows a major now, eh.......
This might get interesting.


I see "GFS shows a major now" and I'm like you've got to be kidding.

Then I scroll back and see its in the EastPac. How many will that make for this season? I wonder if the season will ever end for them?
1306. Torito
Quoting 1305. Sfloridacat5:


I see "GFS shows a major now" and I'm like you've got to be kidding.

Then I scroll back and see its in the EastPac. How many will that make for this season? I wonder if the season will ever end for them?



Yea, I know.... I feel sorry for the people who have to live in that situation dozens of times a year.


Also, I likely wont be posting any "tropical systems" from model runs anymore, now I am going to move on to costal storms. (Nor'easters, fronts, exc.)
1307. Patrap
Plenty of agreement,or "consensus" out 60 hours with intensity,or Strength, after that, its "fluffy", but note the time come landfall.



That's how we do it.

By the numbers, not with "feeling's"

1308. Torito
Quoting 1307. Patrap:
Plenty of agreement,or "consensus" out 60 hours in Strength, after that, its "fluffy", but note the time come landfall.



That's how we do it.

By the numbers, not with "feeling's"



I have been following CHP5 after it nailed Lekima, wilpha, and did a good job on Lorenzo....

CHP5 predicts minimal cat 2 status, which seems reasonable when comparing to the other models.
1309. Torito
The Atlantic has NEVER seen a season like this. :P

1310. SLU
Looking at the set up across the Atlantic right now, it looks like a late December pattern with highly suppressed convection in the entire tropics as well as cold fronts sagging into the lower latitudes. This means that the tropical season is pretty much over until June 2014.

1311. Torito
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST MON NOV 4 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A BROAD AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW IS NOT EXPECTED WHILE IT DRIFTS
WESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013.
10/3


11/4
Major warming occuring across the Equatorial Pacific right now. This seems to be the reason for an active Pacific Hurricane & Typhoon Season.

Could be on our way to a strong way El-Nino by Winter's end.

Here's another look at the active Southern Jet. This is a 16 day precip accum and look at the Southern US. Looks like an El-Nino pattern setting in.
1314. Torito
Could we get a 1964 western pacific typhoon season?



52 systems formed that year!!
1315. StormWx
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Major warming occuring across the Equatorial Pacific right now. This seems to be the reason for an active Pacific Hurricane & Typhoon Season.

Could be on our to a strong El-Nino by Winter's end.


Would you mind citing some models that suggest we will have a strong el nino? Thanks in advance!
1316. Torito
Area of potential development above Africa. 0_0

1317. Torito
Caribbean is still somewhat toasty, but nothing is forming with all of that shear there.


Red line= temperature threshold.


28C Threshold.
1318. sdswwwe
So did MJO fail us again?
Quoting 1314. Torito:
Could we get a 1964 western pacific typhoon season?



52 systems formed that year!!


I should move to the Philippines. They are usually under constant threat of a tropical system.
Quoting 1315. StormWx:


Would you mind citing some models that suggest we will have a strong el nino? Thanks in advance!


The problem has been the models have been horrible predicting enso forecast lately. Remember in 2012 the models had a strong El-Nino but instead we went right into La-Nina. It's only a matter of time now as El-Nino typically rears its head every 3 to 4 years.
Did you guys finally give up on that wave in the Carribean?
1322. Torito
currently, there is an average of 17kts of shear in the Carrib. That needs to drop to near 10 for something decent to form.

Quoting 1320. StormTrackerScott:


The problem has been the models have been horrible predicting enso forecast lately. Remember in 2012 the models had a strong El-Nino but instead we went right into La-Nina. It's only a matter of time now as El-Nino typically rears its head every 3 to 4 years.
Quoting 1318. sdswwwe:
So did MJO fail us again?


Yup! The only explanation is that we have El-Nino setting in as the W-Pac and E-Pac have both had active hurricane & Typhoon Seasons.
1325. Torito
Quoting 1321. FunnelVortex:
Did you guys finally give up on that wave in the Carribean?


Meh, I dropped it. The WPAC is more interesting. :)
1326. Torito
Subtropical system formation is running out of time.



22C threshold for subtropical systems.
Also notice the cold pool of water that was near Hawaii has vanished basically setting the stage for El-Nino to come.

1/3/2013
Cold Pool near Hawaii


11/4
Cold Pool near Hawaii gone!
1328. Torito
the GOM did not really get too warm this year.... That explains why we saw nearly no activity this year.




28C threshold.
Quoting 1327. StormTrackerScott:
Also notice the cold pool of water that was near Hawaii has vanished basically setting the stage for El-Nino to come.

1/3/2013
Cold Pool near Hawaii


11/4
Cold Pool near Hawaii gone!
1330. Torito
Looking at those temperature graphs, it appears this season started later than normal by about a week.... We might go to December 10 this year before things go completely destructive for the tropics.
1331. barbamz
Quoting 1316. Torito:
Area of potential development above Africa. 0_0



Yes, some cyclonic development is expected around Italy later, as I've read in today's discussion of the German Weather Service DWD. I'll keep you updated, guys :)

soo no gulf storm?
1333. Torito


GOM, East coast, and subtropical Atlantic are basically done for this year now. all eyes on the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic.

1334. Torito
Quoting 1332. weatherman994:
soo no gulf storm?


the Gulf is too cold now, so no.
Quoting 1321. FunnelVortex:
Did you guys finally give up on that wave in the Carribean?

No I ain't giving up on it until there's no LLC left or if a cold front picks it up and at the moment neither is happening

Infact convection is now building on the NW quad of the LLC and now it's starting to pop in the center of the LLC

Notice that blob that just E and SE of Jamaica that's NW quad blob
You should also see just SE of that blob is a small pop of convection that the the center of the LLC also just a very small pop of convection going on on the E. Side of the center of the LLC
1336. StormWx
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


The problem has been the models have been horrible predicting enso forecast lately. Remember in 2012 the models had a strong El-Nino but instead we went right into La-Nina. It's only a matter of time now as El-Nino typically rears its head every 3 to 4 years.


Ok gotcha, so its the Scott model :o)

Also looks like the hurricane models you've been predicting 2 weeks out have not verified either. No major in the caribbean, not even an invest. Looks like another bust!
Tom Ford.. Link
Quoting 1336. StormWx:


Ok gotcha, so its the Scott model :o)

Also looks like the hurricane models you've been predicting 2 weeks out have not verified either. No major in the caribbean, not even an invest. Looks like another bust!



Good Morning.  Clear as a bell out there in the Atlantic tropics.  For those still learning, that spin off of the Western tip of Cuba is an upper level low with no chance of tropical development.


Can't wait for next year's hurricane predictions to come out.
Then we can just assume the opposite will happen and prepare for the season.
24 hour surface analysis
48 hour
The future Super Typhoon Haiyan(Yolanda)



















Lets hope this isn't another Super Typhoon Pablo (Bopha) in the making.
Quoting 1336. StormWx:


Ok gotcha, so its the Scott model :o)

Also looks like the hurricane models you've been predicting 2 weeks out have not verified either. No major in the caribbean, not even an invest. Looks like another bust!
The STS isn't always the most accurate model, just the most handsome!

Quoting 1340. Sfloridacat5:
Can't wait for next year's hurricane predictions to come out.
Then we can just assume the opposite will happen and prepare for the season.
It will be a couple of interesting seasons the next two-three years.  The lack of majors the past two seasons (well short of the "typical" numbers) is one anomaly.  While some have noted that the typical Atlantic multi-decadal signal lasts 20-30 years, we started this current active phase in 1995, and you have to wonder what the next two years might bring........You cannot assume that a lack of majors signals a return to a less active phase because the "numbers" are still up there (with a proliferation of tropical storms) so I am not ready to assume that a phase-switch has started earlier than usual.

The lack of majors, and struggling tropical storms, is really the tale of the last two seasons in spite of pre-season predictions, based on normal climatology, of a fair number of hurricanes.

At the end of the day, a less-active phase means less storms but does not eliminate the danger (Andrew in 92) and it only takes one to ruin a year for someone...............The Caribbean and US have had a long stretch of good luck the past several years which did not run out this year.

Just have to take it one storm at a time at this point each upcoming season regardless of the pre-season set-up.
Quoting 1348. weathermanwannabe:

It will be a couple of interesting seasons the next two-three years. The lack of majors the past two seasons (well short of the "typical" numbers) is one anomaly. While some have noted that the typical Atlantic multi-decadal signal lasts 20-30 years, we started this current active phase in 1995, and you have to wonder what the next two years might bring........You cannot assume that a lack of majors signals a return to a less active phase because the "numbers" are still up there (with a proliferation of tropical storms) so I am not ready to assume that a phase-switch has started earlier than usual.

The lack of majors, and struggling tropical storms, is really the tale of the last two seasons in spite of pre-season predictions, based on normal climatology, of a fair number of hurricanes.

At the end of the day, a less-active phase means less storms but does not eliminate the danger (Andrew in 92) and it only takes one to ruin a year for someone...............The Caribbean and US have had a long stretch of good luck the past several years which did not run out this year.

Just have to take it one storm at a time at this point each upcoming season regardless of the pre-season set-up.


TWC hurricane expert said yesterday "we've got a lot to learn about forecasting hurricanes."
He showed how far off everyones forecast was for this year.
He did explain that there was a strong high pressure (weird shaped) that kept bringing dry air down into the tropical Atlantic.
He also said something about not understanding what wad going on at the mid levels of the atmosphere.

BULLETIN
REMNANTS OF SONIA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013
700 AM PST MON NOV 04 2013

...SONIA DISSIPATES OVER MAINLAND MEXICO...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM PST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 106.5W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM NE OF CULIACAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
REMNANTS OF SONIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182013
700 AM PST MON NOV 04 2013

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SONIA HAS QUICKLY DIMINISHED DURING
THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL
MOUNTAINS. AS A RESULT...THIS WILL BE THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY ON
THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING
HAS DIMINISHED...MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 25.5N 106.5W 20 KT 25 MPH
12H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 35
21:00 PM JST November 4 2013
===================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sulu Sea

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 9.6N 123.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 10 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 9.6N 119.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sulu Sea

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #69
TROPICAL DEPRESSION, FORMER TC KROSA (T1329)
21:00 PM JST November 4 2013
==================================

Northern South China Sea

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Krosa (1008 hPa) located at 17.0N 110.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25-30 knots. The depression is reported as moving southwest at 15 knots.

This is the final tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency..

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
Storm Warning
TROPICAL STORM HAIYAN (T1330)
21:00 PM JST November 4 2013
===================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Near Caroline Islands

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Haiyan (998 hPa) located at 6.3N 148.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 16 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 7.2N 143.4E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Caroline Islands
48 HRS: 8.5N 137.6E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Caroline Islands
72 HRS: 10.5N 130.5E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea East Of The Philippines
NWS Guam Watches/Warnings (TC Haiyan)
=========================================

A typhoon watch is now in effect for Koror and Kayangel in the republic of Palau

The tropical storm watch for Ulul in Chuuk state is cancelled

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for Puluwat in Chuuk state

A tropical storm warning and typhoon watch remain in effect for Satawal in Yap state

A typhoon warning remains in effect for Woleai in Yap state

A typhoon watch remains in effect for Faraulep...Fais...Ulithi... Yap island and Ngulu in yap state
1354. Torito
1355. Torito
1356. Torito
1357. Torito
1358. Torito
RI setting in..... Not good.

This is an extremely well organized system.
1359. Torito
Eyewall starting to develop.

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1361. yqt1001


Looks like an eyewall is forming.