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Atlantic hurricane season probably over; Cyclone Sidr's death toll tops 3,000

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:24 PM GMT on November 19, 2007

The Atlantic hurricane season officially ends on November 30, but unofficially, it is probably over. While ocean temperatures are still plenty warm to support tropical cyclone formation in the Caribbean and the Bahamas, wind shear has become prohibitive across the entire tropical Atlantic, and is forecast to remain so until early December. It is possible wind shear will fall low enough over the mid-Atlantic in early December to support tropical storm formation. Any such storm would be far out at sea, and not threaten any land areas. Ocean temperatures are continuing to cool, though, and I put the odds of such a development at 20%. In the recent active Atlantic hurricane period that began in 1995, five of the twelve years have had a named storm form after November 18. With the exception of Tropical Storm Odette of December 2003, none of these storms hit land. Odette hit the Dominican Republic as a 50 mph tropical storm, and triggered flash floods that killed eight people. Late season storms typically form in the Western Caribbean or in the open Atlantic (Figure 1). Due to the frequent number of strong troughs of low pressure marching across the Atlantic this time of year, most tropical storms move north or northeast as soon as they form.


Figure 1. Path of all Atlantic named storms that formed between November 16 and 30, 1851-2006.

Tropical Cyclone Sidr's death toll at 3,000 and rising
Tropical Cyclone Sidr's death toll has risen above 3,000, making the storm the deadliest tropical cyclone the world has seen since Hurricane Mitch hit Honduras in 1998, killing over 9,000 people. The Red Crescent aid agency is estimating that Sidr's toll could reach 5,000-10,000, based on their experience with previous cyclones in Bangladesh. Thousands of people are still missing, and communications to many hard-hit outlying islands remain difficult.

Landmark IPCC report issued
The Nobel Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released their final "Synthesis Report" Saturday. This massive effort, repeated just once every seven years by 2,000 of the world's top climate scientists, summarizes the current state of scientific knowledge on climate change, the likely impacts, and options for how to respond. All literate citizens of the world should at least skim the 23-page report. For those of you unwilling to do so, I'll give you a 4-sentence summary:

Human-caused climate change is very likely already occurring, and will get much more significant over the coming decades. While some regions will experience benefits, most regions will experience costly and dangerous climate change. Developing nations will suffer the most. Strong action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2015 is needed to prevent the worst impacts.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks to the Hurracan' Gods for a mostly uneventful season Landfall wise...here in the States. Enjoy the Holiday Dr. M.
Thanks, Dr. M!

Patrap, how are you this morning?
My Daughters Catholic Confirmation Mass was last Night here. Was a beautiful evening.Was at Holy Name of Jesus on St. Charles Ave here.A most beautiful Church on Loyola's Campus.She was Radiant.An evening to remember Proudly the rest of my days.
Thanks Doc.

Hey Flood

Hey Pat

Pat Congrats on the Confirmation. Best wishes to you and your family on this glorious occasion
Pat, that's wonderful! Holy Name is a beautiful church...congratulations!
Wazzup, Bone?
The IPCC report is grim reading...but it's considerably more moderate than the GW screamers would have wanted, I think; regardless, given the data cited, those saying that GW is NOT happening are apparently just mouthing their words. The 21st century is going to be a hard time for all of mankind, I'm afraid
Hey Flood.

Nothing much going on here. Watching the snow fall and playing with a few ideas on paper.
Thanx flood, Bonedog..will have some Pics later today or tomorrow in my blog. .
Snow...need some company? I'll bring the beer...
Pat, you're welcome; looking forward to the pics!
Good morning,all.
Good morning folks
Bone,your getting snow this morning?
Morning all!

Pat, want to see those pictures of your daughter!

One Pic of Sammy Jo as a Sophomore at Dominican Last Year,now in my blog.
Greetings fellow weather groupies...

I'm on the Board of an organization (www.fodac.org)which distributes medical supplies and equipment around the world...we are sending a container of stuff to Bangledesh....if you'd like, in the spirit of the upcoming holiday, to do something for these poor souls please consider making a financial contribution...it's gonna cost about $7500 to get this stufff to them... the address is on the website...please earmark your check "Bangledesh"...if you have questions e-mail me @: paul@compass-real-estate.com

Thanks! Paul

also...please feel free to forward this as you wish....
Sorry folks. Computer server went down here.

Yea NE seeing snow today. Started last night around 11:30pm and is still continuing. Im at work so we had changeover but from what my wife tells me it is still snowing up at my house. close to 3.5 inches so far.
18. Bonedog 3:48 PM GMT on November 19, 2007
Sorry folks. Computer server went down here.

Yea NE seeing snow today. Started last night around 11:30pm and is still continuing. Im at work so we had changeover but from what my wife tells me it is still snowing up at my house. close to 3.5 inches so far.

I'm still waiting to see my first flake,and you've had two snowfalls,strange start to the season.
Hi guys, here in Sanford NC it is raining and we have had some thundering....go figure
yea NE very wierd start to the season. I got 2 snows both over 2 inches and its not even Thanksgiving. And they are calling for a possible event Thursday into Friday. I have been looking up some things and it seems that these early snows are precursers to particularly bad winters. Not so much as big heavy snowfalls but multiple lighter snowfalls happening weekly.

Using Lake Shadows formula for prediction it said 10 snows for my area I am at 2 already so I think the 10 will be surpased :)
hey bone, NE, Flood, everyone. Happy monday.
Yeah bone, you're on 2 snows already..I only have 1 still. That low only left a meager dusting behind. Not enough to count. What gives? Well, the season is still young.
NE, the Pats are on somekind of super juice, man! That game was a joke!
*shrugs shoulders* Im scratching my head Lake.

For some reason it seems like the conditions just happen to be right over me lately. Heck NYC had 2 tornados this year, go figure.

Definatley rereading all my info and redoing my forcasts. Somethings a foot and i want to get to the bottom of it.
23. LakeShadow 4:11 PM GMT on November 19, 2007
NE, the Pats are on somekind of super juice, man! That game was a joke!

shadow,it was pretty bad,actually felt bad for the fans at the game coming in with high hopes and the the video from everett,sure didn't take long to see where the game was heading.
Hey,Bone I'm more interested in the long range models starting something in the gulf and possibly heading up the east coast either Sunday or Monday.
Thanks, Doc M

Mornin folks...
Yeah, and Bone...Theres a clipper headed my way for Thanksgiving...First they said Wed, then thurs, now its Fri. Any idea when its gonna get here? I think Murphy dictates it will hit Late wed and snow pretty much from Thurs thru Sat.
Stupid Murphy!
Latest snow totals in my blog.

Some areas of the Poconos almost up to a foot of snow.

Here at my house we've only received 2.4" thus far. One more band of light snow currently pulling through the area which could leave an additional quarter to half in before the storm calls it quits.

Up to date seasonal total: 7.1"
NE, Did you see the areal shot during the 4th quarter? The stadium was empty!
NE I have been noticing that also. But being such a long range it is highly speculative right now. As the days progress and if we see concistancy of models I will start to belive it. Right now I am in a watch and see mode
30. LakeShadow 4:24 PM GMT on November 19, 2007
NE, Did you see the areal shot during the 4th quarter? The stadium was empty!

lake,I know I wouldn;t hang around in the cold with a game like that.
31. Bonedog 4:24 PM GMT on November 19, 2007
NE I have been noticing that also. But being such a long range it is highly speculative right now. As the days progress and if we see concistancy of models I will start to belive it. Right now I am in a watch and see mode

Yeh,I know,it depends on the high that is going to be off the mid-atlantic,whether that gets out of the way.
Lake I think the Clipper will be by you thursday earlyu morning and you will be dealing with it till friday. Thats what the models are showing right now.

Tomorrow will be a better gauge.
hey bone, the funny thing is local mets are trying to say everything but "theres a storm coming on Thanksgiving" Its funny the flowery words they use to try and refrain from sending people into a tizzy. Buffalo airport will be a fun place on thurs. Hope the travelers pack their turkeys in their carry-ons!
Hope the travelers pack their turkeys in their carry-ons!

LOL That right there is funny I dont care who you are


Yea always around the holidays if weather will be in the area met folks always try to paint something rosey. Like Mother Nature cares about a date or a holiday
Lake I guess the local TV mets dont read the local forcast discussions. Sure doesnt sound rosey there

A CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE WARM FRONT LIFTS SHARPLY TO THE NORTH ON THU
MORNING AND MILD/WINDY CONDITIONS SET UP FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. GFS
THEN SHOWS DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO PASS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG WIND IN THE WARM SECTOR
ACROSS WESTERN NY TO THE FINGER LAKES. SHARP COLD FRONT FOLLOWING
THE LOW WILL BRING GOOD ALIGNMENT OF COLD AIR /-12C OR COLDER/
ACROSS LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO FOR THE SET UP OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW...POSSIBLY IMPACTING METRO BUFFALO AND THE MAJOR INTERSTATES OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY BY FRIDAY MORNING
.
yeah...The poor suckers in this town have noooooo idea... They are expecting flurries because thats what the puppets said on the TV.
LOL Lake. Yea I dont even listen to the local puppets. They are more intrested in their graphics and doppler 4 million radars.

Like last night they called for just a dusting on grassy surfaces. I wake up to 2.75 inches with heavy snow limiting visablities to under 1/4mile. And its still falling. Local news said its over with and just flurries with little or no accumulations LOL

I should call them up and tell them to shove their Viper Dual Doppler 2000 where the sun dont shine because they got it totally wrong.
StormW, Baja, Beach, Lake, and anyone else I may have missed...Good Morning!
Morning Storm. Another great blog :)

I look foward to working with you on any coastal development or sig wx event for that matter.
Good morning all.

Hey Stormw - You agree that the season is pretty much over at this point?
GM Storm,looking forward to your coastal synopsis this winter.
Hey NE. Guess you guys are blessed this sports season.
Hope the city cleans up my leaves I put on the street,looks very windy after that storm moves into the gulf of maine.
51. V26R
Morning All
Congrats NE on that blast last night
48. Bonedog 5:02 PM GMT on November 19, 2007
Hey NE. Guess you guys are blessed this sports season.

lol,yeah,its been great for us sports fans up here.We'll enjoy it while it lasts,things change quickly.
Thats a problem not being taken into account the leaves. Alot of the trees still have leaves on them and these heavy wet snows bring them very low and over power lines. Thankfully the winds have stayed light these past systems.

Local forcast discussion came out and now calling for freezing rain :( Ice ontop of snow laden trees. I can see this being a problem now. UGGGGGG
50. StormW 5:03 PM GMT on November 19, 2007
Good morning NE!
Doesn't look like you or Bone are getting a break in winter weather so far!!

Actually Storm,has been too bad here in the boston area,except for the chill,I'll take this for the rest of the winter season.
yea NE might be another 86 years at anytime LOL
51. V26R 5:03 PM GMT on November 19, 2007
Morning All
Congrats NE on that blast last night

thanks,has much as I love winning,it wasn't a pretty game to watch,its the brady and moss show.
morning, storm!
Yea NE you have been lucking out, which is unusal for your area, not having the precip shield move your way. LOL Guess Mother Nature figured I have had a dry spell as far a weather goes so instead of burning gas chasing Her She decided to come to me LOL.

Yea Storm haven't caught a break in 3 weeks now. Hopefully the trend continues ;)
55. Bonedog 5:05 PM GMT on November 19, 2007
yea NE might be another 86 years at anytime LOL

lol,maybe don't think I have worry about the next 86 yrs.
yeah that team is WAY too stacked and from here on in, teams are just going to try and put a hurting on them. Most of the game I was chanting "break Brady!!!'
gotta run out for some lunch bbl.
your right Lake from what my Farther told me their schedual is easy here on out Indy and Buf were there only two big hurdles. Oh well there is always next year.
Big System near Alaska.





absolutley huge!!



takes up 35* of Lat and 25* Lon
And what to you reckon will become of this huge Alaskan system, Bone?
supposed to hook NE the N and go up to the Arctic
g'morning everyone
Pat, congratulations on your daughter's Confirmation. :)
T-MINUS 275HRS 19 MIN REMAIN
2007 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON
Did you see the MODIS image, Bone? Pretty cool

Link
Durned link....

See 00:00 UTC
Ok, I give up...it's gonna be a BUTT!! *laffs*
LOL Baja. That was anice MODIS shot though
Actually...it was 00:00 under the Aqua/MODIS (not Terra)

Good to see you, btw Bone
I kinda dig looking through the MODIS shots every day. Interesting.
you too Baja.

Yea I check it out everyday myself. I also like checking the cloudsat website.


Link

here is a sample image
pass over the storm over the northeast


Cool image, Bone! Thanks for the link
Nice image up your way

Link
got torn away there. kids want stuff. I made a turkey decoration with my daughter...feathers and glue everywhere.
Cool lake *winks* (nice to see you btw)
back from lunch, I see its quiet in here
you too, Baja. Hows things?
cool links bonedog. (and baja) trying to make heads or tails of this. Such a plethora of information you are! All your links, they make my head swim. I'm learning sooo much! thanks!
:o)
how was that Buffalo Bills sandwich, NE? :)
83. LakeShadow 6:40 PM GMT on November 19, 2007
cool links bonedog. (and baja) trying to make heads or tails of this. Such a plethora of information you are! All your links, they make my head swim. I'm learning sooo much! thanks!
:o)

Thats the way I feel Lake,since I started coming here,have learned something almost everyday.
Enjoyin' a couple of days off..yay! How bout yourself?
84. LakeShadow 6:42 PM GMT on November 19, 2007
how was that Buffalo Bills sandwich, NE? :)

I got a special order of Bufflo wings
No such thing as time off for this mom, Baja. I takes my breaks when I get them, but its almost naptime! yay!!! :)

NE...extra mild, right! LOL
I remember THOSE DAYS!
Whats that low approaching Washington State?
Anyone have ideas on that one?
Lake,Bone mentioned that earlier,he indicated that will curve NE then North and head up into the Artic.I looked at some Northwest forecasts and the trailing front from that system will sweep into the northwest with strong winds and cold temps and mountain snow.
Ok I thought that was near Alaska...seems more south than the low that Bone was pointing out.
ok soo slow today...I'll throw out elementary meteorological questions that I've been wondering about... How does a Low develop? What are the conditions necessary? On the flipside to that...How does a high pressure system develop? And how can these be forecasted before they develop?
I know its fundamental, and everyone that doesnt know this on here probably should.

Welcome to met class 101.
:o)
92. LakeShadow 7:30 PM GMT on November 19, 2007
Ok I thought that was near Alaska...seems more south than the low that Bone was pointing out.

my mistake,I thought that was the one you were talking about,your talking the little swirl,just off the coast?
This explains the swirl off the coast of washington


SFC LOW PRES CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE TO THE OREGON
COAST AND FILL THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS LIKELY TODAY WITH A SNOW
LEVEL AROUND 1500 FEET...WITH SOME WET SNOW MIXING IN AT TIMES DOWN
TO LOWER ELEVATIONS BUT NOT STICKING. SHOWERS WILL BECOME ISOLATED
TONIGHT...THEN CLEARING. THE MM5GFS HAS A LONE SHOWER IN THE METRO
Finally getting rain in Portugal, after 4 months!

Link
Going into the 20's at night in North Florida over the weekend-the pasture is already half dormant from last week: this one will turn it all brown. Not much to mow!
98. IKE
groundswell 2:57 PM CST on November 19, 2007
Going into the 20's at night in North Florida over the weekend-the pasture is already half dormant from last week: this one will turn it all brown. Not much to mow!


If you're talking about this coming weekend...there is no forecast of lows in the 20's in north Florida. I've looked at the forecasts from Pensacola to JAX and the lowest forecasted temperature at night this weekend...is near 40...in the western Florida panhandle.
Good Afternoon everybody
IKE-correct, I had my settings on North Carolina. Good news-I'll still have some green!
Sea breeze front over the Northeastern Coast of the South American Continent.



Developing Storm



18Z model run....forecast valid 12Z WED 21 NOV



At Least 2,400 Killed in Bangladesh Cyclone; Food Airlifted to Survivors
Monday , November 19, 2007


BARGUNA, Bangladesh —

Helicopters airlifted food to hungry survivors Monday while rescuers struggled to reach remote areas devastated by Bangladesh's worst cyclone in a decade, amid fears the death toll could be far higher than the official figure of 2,400.

The army helicopters carried mostly high-protein cookies supplied by the World Food Program, said Emamul Haque, a spokesman for the WFP office in Bangladesh's capital, Dhaka, which is coordinating international relief efforts.

International aid organizations promised initial packages of $25 million during a meeting with Bangladesh agencies Monday, Haque said.

• Click here to view photos.

The official death toll from Tropical Cyclone Sidr reached 2,407 on Monday, according to the Disaster Management Ministry. However, local television stations said it had already passed 3,000, and there were fears it could be much higher.

The Bangladesh Red Crescent Society, the Islamic equivalent of the Red Cross, warned the toll could hit 10,000 once rescuers reach outlying islands, saying the estimate came from volunteers in rescue operations so far.

Grieving survivors had grim tales about losing loved ones during the night of the disaster.

In Galachipa, a fishing village along the coast in Patuakhali district, Dhalan Mridha and his family ignored the high cyclone alert issued by the authorities through radio and the Red Crescent volunteers.

When Mridha realized his mistake, it was too late.

"Just before midnight the winds came like hundreds of demons. Our small hut was swept away like a piece of paper and we all ran for shelter," said Mridha, a 45-year-old farm worker, weeping.

Mridha was separated from his wife, mother and two children while on his way to the shelter, a two-story building several blocks from his home. The next morning he found their bodies stuck up in a battered bush along the coast.

Mridha said he was too exhausted even to cry for their loved ones.

Local media described much of the coast as a vast valley of death and destruction, and said many grieving families buried their relatives in the same grave because they lacked any adult male survivors to dig graves.

On Sunday, many hungry survivors scrambled for food as rescue workers cleared fallen trees and twisted roofs from roads to reach remote villages in a relief effort in which global aid groups have teamed up with the Bangladesh army.

Relief items like tents, rice and water have been slow to reach many.

Government officials defended the relief efforts so far, and expressed confidence that authorities are up to the task.

"We have enough food and water," said Shahidul Islam, the top official in Bagerhat, a battered district near the town of Barguna. "We are going to overcome the problem."

Disaster Management Secretary Aiyub Bhuiyan met with representatives from the United Nations and international aid groups Sunday to discuss the emergency response.

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said in a statement that several million dollars are available from the U.N.'s emergency response funds, depending on the need.

He expressed his "profound condolences to the people and government of Bangladesh for the many deaths and the destruction involved, and the full solidarity of the U.N. system at this time of crisis," the statement said.


Vortex in cloud decks off the coast of Baja


104. IKE
Extended from Jackson,Mississippi...


"Saturday through next Monday...


The forecasted general pattern supports the development of a major
Gulf Coast storm system this weekend into early next week.
A strong
coastal baroclinic zone will serve as the buffer between very rich
Gulf air with 70+ degree f dewpoints to the south and chilly polar air
to the north. A shortwave trough is forecast to dig into the southwestern
Continental U.S. Before getting kicked eastward across the plains and MS valley
region this weekend. As the wave interacts with the coastal front...
rapid cyclogenesis should take place...but considerable forecast
uncertainty exists in regard to the details of the system evolution.


The European model (ecmwf) and UKMET suggest that middle level heights will be higher
over the region than the GFS solution...and that the trough will dig
farther west. This would mean that the surface low would track
farther northwest placing the forecast area in the warm sector...
thus bringing a potential for severe weather to the entire area.
Meanwhile...the GFS shows the low will develop farther southeast...
keeping most of the forecast area out of the warm sector and severe weather
potential. However...even the GFS solution suggests that areas along
and southeast of the Interstate 59 corridor could have some severe weather risk
from sometime Sunday into Sunday night should it verify.


Have upped probability of precipitation a bit for Saturday as the likelihood of the storm
system has increased. In fact...the degree of lift and moisture
transport suggest that we could see rainfall totals get quite heavy.
Temperatures were adjusted as well this weekend to account for what
should be small temperature ranges in the cloudy and occasionally
rainy environment."
105. IKE
From the Birmingham,AL. extended on this weekends GOM low.....

"This system will be a major weather maker across the
southern United States and the primary uncertainty is the timing
of when upper low will eject out of the southwest states."
IKE, anyway to glue that low over Lake Okeechobee?
107. IKE
Looks like Lake Okeechobee gets a little rain in the coming days...according to the 18Z GFS...but the SE USA is in for a minor drought buster!

Link
wow its slow. Hey all. Im here again for a little bit before dinner.

Lake you asked about high and lows and what causes them. here ya go.

High and Low Pressure Systems

Best weather education site around.

The Weather Prediction Main Page
110. IKE
This blog just about dies after the hurricane season is over(in the Atlantic)...which it isn't, but it is.

I just thought it was interesting that the models are forecasting a significant rain event for a good portion of the parched SE USA....the end of the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday weekend.

Yea IKE thats great news for you all. It also is a forcast nightmare for the NE because as of now its calling for that thing to track this way.

I will be back later on. Dinner is on the table so gotta go.

Later Everyone
Forecasted Gulf Coast System Valid 12Z 25 NOV DEC

Good Evening. The Atlantic surely did not live up to some peoples expectations, this season at all.Too much dry air, and too much wind at high and medium altitudes. I suggested that would be the case, and I based my suggestion on the fact that the Saharan region is still going through a heating- up phase, with the desert area moving southward.
This is set to continue, with all the horrors that that will bring to central west Africa. Drought, crop failure etc. As long as that sequence is in place, we can expect fewer Atlantic tropical storms, and ultimately less rainfall in the southern Caribbean and the North coast of South America.
The above will not affect the Caribbean sea or the Gulf of Mexico for some years yet, but it will do so in time, if conditions in Africa stay as hot and dry as they are now.
All the above is my own opinion, based on what I see........
That system is expected to deepen to 999 millibars while over the Northeast US sometime Monday Morning
...and comments would be welcomed.
...." storng action to reduce greenhouse gas emmisions by 2015 etc, etc, etc, ." As stated by eminent weather specialist from all over the world.......

Well, what do you know !! Anyone listening ??
...." storng action to reduce greenhouse gas emmisions by 2015 etc, etc, etc, ." As stated by eminent weather specialist from all over the world.......

Well, what do you know !! Anyone listening ??
....SYNOPSIS....

GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 40W....

An upper level anticyclone is over the Southern Rockies centered over New Mexico at 35N/103W. Meanwhile, a broad ridge covers the Caribbean. These two features are inducing an upper trough and low extending from Northern Mexico across the Southeast United States and up the East Coast of the United States to a low over Eastern Canada. Widely scattered clouds and possible showers are seen over the Gulf west of 90W and the Eastern Sierra Madre Mountains of Mexico. Additional showers are invading the South-Central Gulf near the Yucatan in associated with the passage of a tropical wave near 90W.

Fast upper level winds flowing around a ridge in the Caribbean are supporting a plume of moisture extending from Central Florida, within 300 nm of the line 30N/75W 35N/60W...including the island of Bermuda...formerly associated with a frontal boundary. At the surface, ridging and 5-10 knot anticyclonic flow covers most of the Atlantic west of 60W with patches of low level lingering moisture hovering across the Bahamas and the Windward Passage. Strong wind shear in the vertical and increasing temperature gradient is setting the stage for the development of a significant weather disturbance in the Subtropical Atlantic in the next 48-72 hrs as indicated by computer models.


byW456
Pottery~ The precip anomilys have been above average for most the Caribbean for
Oct (& that's by ~100mm in the Lesser Antillies)
Sept the east Caribbean & SA was above average rain with the west 1/2 barely lower than average. But that was was probibly a god send since
Aug the caribbean for the most had one of the highest anomilys on earth for the month.

I updated my blog today with the world's October weather tragities & turns out 60 people died & ~30000+ were left homeless in the Caribbean due to flooding in October alone.

I don't really see it as a slow season. Made it through N & had some monster storms. & Cat 5 landfall, don't see that every Atlantic season. I agree it could have been worse. Here's my thoughts on the major limiting factor. Alotta invests this season for what reason I don't know, had such huge circulations. Too big to spin up before the enviroment around them deterated or land became an issue. Seems there was more than a few that would have made if they were smaller to begin with.
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION....

Broad upper ridging continues to dominate the entire Caribbean Region. Scattered showers are over the length of Central America and the Caribbean Sea west of 80W and south of 20N in associated with low level convergence associated with the sea breeze front and the passage of a tropical wave near 90W along with diffluent flow aloft. A tropical wave is moving through the Caribbean along 75W south of 20N. Most of the wave’s energy is along the ITCZ south of 10N.

The entire Eastern Caribbean lies within the right exit quadrant of the upper ridge and thus dry air and synoptic scale sinking is leading to exceptionally fair weather. Easterly flow is enhanced south of a building ridge over the Southwest Atlantic leading to 10-15 knot winds and 3ft seas east of 70W. The pressure gradient is tightest along the Southwest Caribbean resulting in 15-20 knot winds and 13 ft seas...20 ft in some locations.


By W456
To me, we had a classic La Nina season; the last La Nina as strong as or stronger than the current one was in 1988, which should sound familiar:

The most notable storm of the season was Hurricane Gilbert, the strongest Atlantic hurricane ever observed at the time; Gilbert took a path through the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, causing devastation in Jamaica, Mexico, and many other island nations. Hurricane Joan caused very heavy damage and over 200 deaths, mostly in Nicaragua.


The U.S. got hit by just one weak hurricane (a few deaths and a few million in damage, like Humberto) and a few weak tropical storms. Some other notable events in 1988 should also be familiar - extreme heatwaves and drought over the U.S.? Severe cyclone hits Bangladesh (worst in 20 years)?

One thing to note - What happened in 1989 (see second link above, list of billion dollar U.S. weather disasters)? And 1999 (both second year La Ninas)?
They have heavily chemtrailed that plume of moisture extending from Central Florida today. All the clouds were a result of it past about 1pm EST today. Some were a light pink & green, hours before you would expect to see colors from the sunset.
119. Skyepony 8:16 PM AST on November 19, 2007 Hide this comment.
Pottery~ The precip anomilys have been above average for most the Caribbean for
Oct (& that's by ~100mm in the Lesser Antillies)
Sept the east Caribbean & SA was above average rain with the west 1/2 barely lower than average. But that was was probibly a god send since
Aug the caribbean for the most had one of the highest anomilys on earth for the month.


can i get a link to the page where that data is found.
Skyepony, all very true. Thanks for the comment. Perhaps I didnt make it clear enough, that I was talking about the Tropical Atlantic primarily, and the Caribbean and West of the Caribbean Islands in the future.
I believe that the large systems that formed in the Trop. Atl this year and subsequently did not become hurricanes were generally afected by the dry air out of Africa. Obviously, we should not generalise too much, and anomalies happen ( and will continue to happen). But as you say, some very promising systems formed up, and dissipated in the Atlantic. There IS a reason for that. And my bet so far is that the dry air is most likely the prime suspect.
I know it is possible to show comparative images and data that will likely throw some doubt on what I am saying, but look at the big picture. Also, the idea that weather patterns are changing is pretty well agreed upon. What we dont know, is how that will pan out, and in what time frame.
A lot of conjecture and guesses, on my part as well.
pottery~ i do think dry air was one of the inhibiting factors from a full blown 2005. The season was pretty active none the same & like Michael pointed out a typical West-ho, some monsters, La Niña year. Those invests that by my calipers wouldn't fit in the Caribbean so they couldn't get spun up stood out for me. They had plenty of moisture to cause flood mayhem.

Weather456~ Here's the link. I change the month in the address up top to view whichever.
127. KRL
Hard to believe the season has come and gone already. We were fortunate this year in FL.

Happy Thanksgiving Weather Bloggers!
The UNYSIS 10-day GFSx shows trouble come Late in the weekend along the Central GOM..then to points Neast thru time

Link
Skyepony, I was looking at your links on rainfall anomalies. Good info. But the huge increases in the north eastern Carib, Islands, and the west Carib. sea, were solely as a result of Tropical storms and Hurricanes.
The pattern of the rainfall has undoubedly changed.
In Trinidad, we had one third of our average Sept rainfall this year ( AT MY LOCATION ). This is not true for the island as a whole. But what is true is that the rain that did fall this season, fell in intense, local thunderstorms ( generally speaking again ). That has been the pattern for the last few years . It used to be that we would sit under ITCZ weather with rain for DAYS on end. Not any more. And with the temps regularly going to 34 and sometimes 35 celcius, the authorities here are talking about desalination plants.
My garden never became a swamp this year, for the first time in 20 years that I have lived here.
The patterns seem to be changing, and if the pattern changes here, over my house, then it is bound to be changing in other places as well. I cant be that unique.
130. DDR
Pottery2,i agree with you,we're mostly likely going to get less rainfall in the future,and it maybe sooner than we expect.
Skye, another strange thing.
2005 had as much dry air as this year ( give or take ). Very weird !
Happy Thanksgiving to you too, Patrap. When is it ?
pottery,

Some very interesting observations.

One thing I learned years ago was that when we observe weather patterns, we have to keep in mind the geometry of our viewpoint. For example, when we see a weather pattern on a computer screen, it is not a truthful representation of the facts because the computer screen cannot display the curvature of the earth.

Remeber how those boxy wind patterns formed at different degrees north or south of the equator? How about the fact that the rotational velocities are different as you move north or south from the equator? As the wind moves southward from the north, it curves to the east as the earth rotates west underneath it.

Your observations regarding the dry Sahara air having an influence bears more intense scrutiny . And, of course, we should not ignore the influence of Chaos theory on weather patterns because those weather patterns you mentioned earlier do change randomly over time. Which is why we shouldn't be so quick to assert specific causes and effects on the weather.

Point taken Lindenii. Thanks.
True, DDR, time to buy some water tanks !!

Thanks JFV. Have a great day on Thursday!
I'm out. Its time to go and monitor a kiln. Thanks for the discussion. Keep well all....
Evening everybody. I'm just peeking in for 2 minutes while working. I found the comments on pottery's take on the season interesting.

I would also agree that the season hasn't really been "not busy" in a general sense. I am reminded once again of someone's comment - I forget who said it - about 2005 severely skewing the expectations of many people.

It's interesting that you mentioned the changes in patterns, though, pottery, because I was talking about a similar thing locally just the other day. I guess what is "normal" to most of us is what we have experienced in our lifetimes, and not necessarily a pattern that is set in stone.

I wonder how easily I could obtain rainfall records from our met office for, say, the last 60 years. It would be interesting to see how much of a shift in pattern we have seen since about 1950.
glad to see the Dr.'s early capitulation for this season, though I expect there will be a few holdouts among the faithful. Looking forward to a few months of more or less carefree sailing.

Wonder how La Nina is doing, we could use a transition into a snowier pattern here in the west, northern sierra mountains. Its been sprinkling and raining on and off for a couple of months but no significant accumulation below 9000 ft. The first major storm is over a month late at this time.
The Japan Meteorological Agency is now tracking two systems

23W/TS Lando
to be announced by JTWC 24W
I don't think most people will hold out. That's why the blog is so quiet . . . lol
Pottery~ Oh yeah 2005 was a record setting year for dust & dry air. Research has pointed to the circulations shaking out the dust & dry air farther west then normal, causing more landfalls that season.

As for the distinct change in weather pattern. ENSO took a hard dive.


Both el nino & La nina have real effects on the climate throughout the world. They are both very different & we just switched fairly quick from one to another. Not to say I don't believe in chaos, cause that's a part of weather too. You could call it + trend (on page 38). Where they compare what's expected in a normal La Niña year & what they expect this winter, once the current trend of what chaos has been up to is factored in.

& beyond chaos & ENSO is climate change. This dang sea ice extent anomily graph we are always looking at has never before this month been so ominus looking..
Good discussion Pottery..another time.

msphar~it is lagging...


116. pottery2 6:51 PM EST on November 19, 2007
...." storng action to reduce greenhouse gas emmisions by 2015 etc, etc, etc, ." As stated by eminent weather specialist from all over the world.......

""Well, what do you know !! Anyone listening ??""

Since you brought it up. ;-)


"Human-caused climate change is very likely already occurring,"

What does very likely mean? It means no one knows for sure.

"and will get much more significant over the coming decades"

That's a very definite statement to be based on very likely. LOL

Happy Thanksgiving all!
O My!..The Earth seems to be Warming Rapidly as compared to when I used to run across that Silly Earth Creature.

Now..do you carry a P-238 Space Modulator in Beta?

Pat,

lol...gotta love the classics
Certainly..LOL

126. Skyepony 8:50 PM AST on November 19, 2007

Thanks
evening all, how is everyone tonight?
I am off for the night...good night all.

Low in the Southern Bering Sea just east of Russia.



guess everyone is gone...
Tropical Disturbance Summary (0300z 20Nov)
=======================================
The area of convection (93W) located near 11.9N 138.0E or 145 NM north of Yap. Recent animated multispectral satellite imagery and SSMI Microwave Image reveals a rapidly consolidating low level circulation center with deep organizing convection on the western semicircle. Formative convective banding is also evident in the northern and eastern quadrant. Pressure falls at Yap have been on the order of 1 to 2 mb or a 24 hours period. The system is located near the subtropical ridge axis, with low vertical winds shear and good divergence aloft. The location of the system near the ridge axis is enhancing convection with outflow channel forming in both poleward and equatorward directions.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 18-22 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1004 mb. Based on the excellent upper level environment and the rapidly consolidating LLLC, The potential of this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to GOOD.

A Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert is now in effect. This alert may be re-issued, cancelled, or upgraded to a warning by 0300z 21Nov.
Evenin' folks. I have been lurking and decided to say hi to everyone. Tigger, how are your guys doing? I've been praying for them and I am still asking others to do so. Also, how's their Mom holding up? (I still have a sticky note on my monitor with their names.)
Good Afternoon!
Hope the tropics are simmering down as Ike says:)
Hope the tropics are simmering down as Ike says:)

I would like to see one of those freakish semitropical cold water and shear defying December hurricanes though, like Epsilon. Usually do no harm either, unless you include the NHC forecast skill (LOL), usually also produce some interesting remarks from the forecasters when they refuse to die.
Brisbane Bureau of Meteorology - Queensland

Tropical Cyclone Outlook (20November)
===============================
Ex-tropical Cyclone Guba was located near the Gulf of Papua but was not expected to redevelop into a tropical cyclone.

There are no other significant tropical disturbances in the Coral Sea. However computer models indicate the possibility of a low developing south of the Solomon Sea during the next day or two. At this stage, there is a low chance of a tropical cyclone forming during the next three days.
Morning Folks. I know its too early for anyone to be on LOL but I am here if you want to talk ;)
talk about some large waves?



here is a link tot he same image only close up
MODIS Close Up
Morning StormW
Gale storm continues to develop

SW Carib.? Latin Americ rainy season refuses to quit this yr. Dec should be dry.
Morning Storm
The storm is packing some powerful winds and high seas.
bad day on the waterfront





this is not my port. this is the port of Kwanyang
those images of the water front looks like they are from 21st and 20th of October 2007. Are they suppose to be realtime or past photos.
October 20th 2007 was the date of the accident. I just recived them today though
ohhhok
Downward motion of the MJO could be possible.


No one single cause can be blamed for the "light" season, though the combination of dry African air and the downturn in the MJO are high on the list of suspects, yes? I watched the storms and saw that timing and coincidence had a good deal to do with it as well...the wind shear this year was no greater than average, it's just the timing of storms that allowed for the shear to be a large factor...
Good morning, folks, by the way...
morning Flood
quick question for anyone here...

anyone ever tried to get a patent? I am in the process of trying to get one and its a freakin nightmare
Nope, Bone I haven't, though I've heard it's a monster!
yea it is Flood :/

I think its harder to get the patent then to invent the idea
Patent Lawyer Link
Morning JFV
Thanks Pat for the link. They will be my fourth attorny contacted LOL
I've only ever gotten copyrights for software I've written(and when i was younger, a couple of songs I wrote)...I had a friend that was in the proccess of getting a patent the last time I talked to him and he was getting a little jumpy about it...too many hoops...
Oh I bet Flood. The amount of buracatic red tape seems unsurmountable. That and trying to use the govs website just confuses you more
but I need to go through it :(
Morning JFV and Flood
gees its been slow LOL

by now we usually have Lake, Flood, NE, 456, 23, JFV, and the rest all gabbing it up or asking questions. LOL must be all sleepy heads awaiting the turkey day extravaganza or black friday, take your pick :)
Howdy, 456!
I'm waiting for the first really good cold front of the year to blow through, as well as trying to get some work(LOL) done...I say cold front; the temps behind it will keep the daytime highs here in the upper 40s. What I wouldn't give for a 1-2 foot snow fall followed by a week or so of sub zero temps...ooops, was that my outside voice?
Flood you should be getting that front by the weekend. Its going to drop all the way to the Gulf and spawn the Low that is forcasted to track up the eastern seaboard

from the St. Louis forcast office

THE AIR WITH THIS FRONT IS DOWNRIGHT CHILLY
ESPECIALLY COMPARED WITH THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR OUT AHEAD OF IT
THAT WE SAW ON MONDAY...AND ARE EXPECTED TO SEE AGAIN TODAY.
looks like wintery precip is forcasted also

ALTHOUGH EXPECTED ACTUAL TIME OF
SLEET WILL BE BRIEF...FELT IMPORTANT ENOUGH TO MENTION DUE TO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND FIRST WINTERY PCPN OF THE SEASON.
Bonedog, I manage our family's privately held portfolio of patents. I'd be happy to discuss, privately, although 8:30 to 5:00 I'm at my day job so my availability is somewhat limited (that should tell you something).

Mornin' y'all.
Thanks Sophmom at this juncture I need all the help I can get.

If you can... if a patent exists already in form but not function can I still be able to patent my idea being the functions are diffrent?

Morning BTW
"If you can... if a patent exists already in form but not function can I still be able to patent my idea being the functions are diffrent?"

Bonedog, that depends on a number of things. The "patent that exists in form" would probably be cited as prior art, but if your method of use/function could be deemed novel and non-obvious to one of reasonable skill in the art, you might overcome this. I'm assuming that the patent that already exists to protect the form is not yours?
Good Evening!
Great update and awesome pictures Dr.Masters thank you for all the hard work you do. Good thing the Lions game is indoors heard there is a chance of snow?
correct Sophmom. That patent that exists is not mine but I am using the technology in a novel nonobvious way.... way way way nonobvious ;)

well at least in my eyes
I really couldn't possibly tell you without knowing details and I strongly recommend you don't tell me or anyone else details. Pat was right. You would need to speak with a patent attorney. What have the three you've contacted told you? I could certainly recommend a couple, one of them having some area of expertise in method patents.
Good morning all,I have my first snowfall of the season,woohoo!!
all three have said differing things. One said no, one said sure why not, the third said without extensive research he wouldnt be able to answer my question (ie wants alot of money).

Morning NE. Glad you got snow. Now using Lakes forcast method your looking at 31 snows this season LOL
207. Bonedog 3:13 PM GMT on November 20, 2007
Morning NE. Glad you got snow. Now using Lakes forcast method your looking at 20 snows this season LOL

Thanks,got any other good news,but I do like the first snow of the season
hahahaha I thought you like snow hahahaha

Dont feel bad, Lake emailed me and said my calculation was wrong instead of 9 I am looking at 20 also
I saw a prediction for the northest winter,and much below normal December,then above normal for January and February.
yea I think they got it wrong. We already are having some of the earliest snowfalls and also none of them have been dustings.
lol,you and I both know how accurate long range forecasts are.
yup about as accurate as running around a baseball bat 10 times with your forehead on the handle then trying to run a straight line to the keg
Anyone know where they think this low will hit western Florida? It just says somewhere on the coast...Good day by the way!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
222 AM EST TUE NOV 20 2007


"DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW THE STALLED
FRONT MOVING BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF IN RESPONSE
TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY EJECTING EASTWARD FROM THE LONG WAVE TROUGH/CLOSED
LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S./MEXICO. A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF SHOWS
THIS SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THEN MOVING UP THROUGH THE MS/TN VALLEYS
ON MONDAY."
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JCM




Buh the Low will probably come across in the Big Bend region if not a little farther south. It will just be a Low pressure system nothing tropical or subtropical in nature. It will be a worry up in the Northeast though as models are predicting it to become a potent weather maker later next week.
Thanks Bone..was just hoping for it to be a bit further south as we could use a good soaking before our stetch of 5 months of nill...(Cape Coral)

funny....my other nickname is Bone...but Buhdog has always been my screen name. ala bonedog
LOL that is funny :)

Buh the system should be large enough to give you some precip. Being it hasnt even developed yet I am only going by models but you and for that matter most if not all of Florida should see some rain
218. V26R
Morning All
219. IKE
12Z GFS through 132 hours....on this weekends GOM low....looks like a good soaker....

Link
220. V26R
Hey Bone get any snow?
Yea V2 got 3 inches. all gone today because of the rain but had it
morning V26,got some snow up here this morning
223. V26R
WOW
This is early
Hope its not Ole Mom Nature telling us
to beware

Had a change over yesterday morning at about 6am
while I was freezing my butt off outside
on the job lasted about half an hour
but nothing stuck
Was those BIG Fluffy flakes
224. V26R
Morning NE
WOW Looks like winter is here for us
BTW Congrats on that Ugly vistory the other night
Man 56 -10
Boy I Love Loosing Superbowls!!!
224. V26R 4:31 PM GMT on November 20, 2007
Morning NE
WOW Looks like winter is here for us
BTW Congrats on that Ugly vistory the other night
Man 56 -10
Boy I Love Loosing Superbowls!!!

Still a long way to go,as long as injuries aren't too bad,they sure look unbeatable,I actually felt bad for the Bills.
I think it is V2. Mom Nature looks to have Her eye on the Northeast this winter.
227. V26R
I finish up this shift this evening then off til next Tuesday so Think Im gonna check out the snowblower and run up the generator a bit
228. V26R
NE what ever became of that spy scandal
They ever get fined for that?
Yea V2 I did that last weekend. Got the blower all tuned up. No genny but its on my Xmas wish list
228. V26R 4:36 PM GMT on November 20, 2007
NE what ever became of that spy scandal
They ever get fined for that?

Oh yeh,Bellichick and the team both got heavy fines and they lost their first round draft pick next year.
231. V26R
Bone a bud of mine goes to those yard sales out in Lancaster and stumbled across 2 Honda 4kw
gas Gens for 400, needless to say I got
one of those for 300, might want to go that route if you can
232. V26R
Thats sad NE
They all do it, And its funny who they got caught doing it against too
232. V26R 4:43 PM GMT on November 20, 2007
Thats sad NE
They all do it, And its funny who they got caught doing it against too

lol,I can only imagine what the score will be when the jets visit us next month
234. V26R
You know Mangini won't be on camera as much as he was the last time too
Hey,do you think there will be a handshake at the end of the game?
gotta run bbl
237. V26R
I really would hope so
They did work together and supposedly
still are close friends
So they both know whats going on
I would say that if the Jets were
in contention they could play up
the drama and make it into a kind of wrestling
thing for hte press,
But since the Jets are so far out
They should just to show everyone
that its the waythe game is played
Thats a wrap on the NFL today.
Back to you in the weather Studio.

239. V26R
Gotta run too
BBL
240. V26R
Back to you Pat
LOL...The UNYSIS GFSx 10 day. Link
Oh well. A detailed patent search turned up a patent on my invention. Oh well it was a good feeling for a while
So, Patrap, are you inventive too? Your IP lawyer sure was in the right place.

I'm sorry, Bonedog. I hate it when that happens.
Its ok. at least now I can tell ya all what it was and maybe you all can use it.

Hydro Electric Driven car

no more gas zero emissions!!! welcome to the new world folks
Thanks for the help Sophmom it was much appreciated
You're very welcome, Bonedog.
The inventor was in England and filed a patent there and every other country that manufactures cars

Again big oil supresses technology that would move us away from dependance on oil
NEW ANTI-CYCLONE TECHNOLOGY EXIST!
The new anti-hurricane technology is development. PCT/SK2006/000003 (WO/2006/085830) A METHOD OF AND A DEVICE FOR THE REDUCTION OF TROPICAL CYCLONES DESTRUCTIVE FORCE
Antihurricane Technology Fund
www.ahtfund.org
Hurricane active technology prevention
Anti-hurricane technology Fund - Actively, straight muffle hurricane, rise him straight in roads, find his depression, utilize his strength straight against him very, let he destroys alone.

anti-hurricane technology
ah thanks I needed that. Havent used the ignore button in awhile LOL
wow the blog just died. what happened? you all looking up the car? or died from laughter
213. Bonedog 3:50 PM GMT on November 20, 2007
yup about as accurate as running around a baseball bat 10 times with your forehead on the handle then trying to run a straight line to the keg

LOL!!!
Morning/Afternoon, all!
Bonedog, that sounds like just the sort of thing this planet needs! Despite the difficulty, I hope it happens.
I do to Sophmom. It is current technology and doesnt require massive R&D. Would be the most benificial thing to happen to the planet since the banning of CFCs
Morning Lake.
hydrogen fuel injectors. its the future. You can put them in the cars you already own.

"It's a car that runs on water, man!"-Hyde from That Seventies Show

Lake my creation, even though patented by someone else I will for today only call it mine LOL, is even better. Nothing needed except 5 gallons of water. Unlimited milage.. im talking in the range of 1000s of miles. No refill stations needed, no energy expended to extract the fuel. cheap clean and efficent ;)


remeber one thing with hydrogen cells they require massive amounts of energy to extract from water. IE the plants use coal to extract the clean energy source. Thus mitigating the clean factor
wow. I'd like to see that in mass production!
All kinds of cool information about water powered cars.

Air powered too.
Bonedog 5:41 PM GMT on November 20, 2007 Hide this comment.
wow the blog just died. what happened? you all looking up the car? or died from laughter


Want to see this blog come back to life?
The magic word is "Invest in the Caribbean,Atlantic or GOMX"
hihih
here is all you need

water tank
pump
hydroelectric generator
DC motor
potentometer
battery

fill water tank, connect pump inline between tank and generator, run generator wires to batteries. Connect potentometer inline between motor and batteries.

the potentometer is your gas pedal regulating the voltage to the DC motor.

As long as you have water in the tank you have power. Water runs low??? just pull up to a stream, lake, river, ocean or the backyard garden hose and filler up!!
no emissions, no energy expelled to create the fuel, no dependance on fossil fuels, no drawbacks.
I have this on a small scale in my garage already. I was applying for the patent but unfortunatley someone beat me to the punch. But due to the fact I have the parts assembled for a real world test I will be going foward with it anyways. Hell at least I will never have to buy gas for my commuter car again.
The technology has been around for just a little while:


Isaac de Rivas was a Swiss inventor who, in 1805, was the first to make a car powered by an internal combustion engine. That was an accomplishment in and of itself, but what did the engine use as fuel, since gasoline wasn't invented till the 1870s? Amazingly, the first automobile ran on HYDROGEN extracted from WATER!
petrolium is a money industry. just like the rest...profits speak volumes. We are entering an era inwhich we are required to forego profits for environmental health. Not so easy for an oil tycoon to digest. So they are squeezing every ounce of profit possible because they know that the gravy train is coming to its last stop. Not to mention that the remaning supplies of petroleum reserves should be used for plastics such as IV tubes, bags and syringes and other medical equipment.
Bonedog, you could be a Mythbuster.
People who have designed cars to run on anything other than oil,have been known to disappear suddenly,be careful
Hi everyone,

Well, I guess I can get my food stuff and drinks and supplies that need to be rotated out of the Hurricane Closet and use them now!

Hopefully safe for another year. We are lucky and had another easy year... got year easy years in a row now under our belt! But after 2004 and 2005 we deserve a few easy years.


Everyone enjoy your day and Have a wonderful Thanksgiving and Holiday weekend!

Gams
careul bone,people who try to come up with alternative fuel,suddenly disappear.
darn,lag time with posts.
Stupid capitalists dont realize that theres a mint to be made in ecological repair and maintenence.
as long as our politicians remain in the back pocket of the oil industry,will never see a push away from oil
Some 6000 zero-emissions Air Cars are scheduled to hit Indian streets in August of 2008.

There's a guy in Florida that has developed a better version of this technology over the years. I can't find the link.
Darn Texans!
(no offense, those from TX... But by golly! storm the Bastille already!!!!!)
:)
TROPICAL CYCLONE BONGWE WARNING NUMBER TEN ISSUED AT 18:00 PM UTC - Downgraded to Moderate Tropical Storm
=============================

The Forte Tempête Tropicale Bongwe located near 11.9ºS 73.2ºE or 2110 kms east-northeast of La Reunion's coast. weakened into a tempête tropicale moderée with 10 min sustained winds of 45 knots and gusts up to 65 knots moving west-southwest at 8 knots.

Central Pressure: 988 hPa

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5

Gale Warning Area
=================
80 NM from the system's center

Additional Information
=========================
Forecast Position and intensity

12 HRS - 12.7S 71.6E 40 kts
24 HRS - 13.2S 70.3E 40 kts

Bongwe has weakened today due to an intrusion of dry air in the inner-core of its circulation. This event may be transitory and a rejuvenation of the storm remains possible.

Bongwe should keep on moving west-southwest for the next 24 hours before bending more westward afterwards

Bongwe, huh? Flood would like that one...
Will this be the 'superstorm' that will hit England and The Netherlands?

Link

Your comments please :)
the season's first snowfall is over with,short and sweet 1/2 to an inch on grassy surfaces.a little preview for the northeast
While the potential for tropical development is low it is interesting to see that an area of heavy rain has again developed in the region between Jamaica and Central America. This area has proved a major problem for Jamaica as since July of the volume of rain fall that has affected the Jamaica and Central America has cause extensive damage in addition to the effect of the hurricanes Dean and Noel. Any one has a explanation for what is happening in this area it seems unusal.
StormW mentioned it in his analysis,doesn't expect to develope into anything,it should move west into land.
0 chance for any kind of and tropical cyclone development in the caribbean as winds in the area are 30-40kts with steering currents bringing what ever is there onshore.

May-June 2008.
If any storm does form for the rest of the year, it will be a semi-tropical hybrid storm like Epsilon or Zeta (the NHC called then tropical, but I doubt they were true tropical systems, surviving 50 kts of shear and 70 degree water). They also got the forecasters really worked up as well when they didn't do what they were supposed to do; that is, dissipate; they both lasted longer than Katrina or Rita.
As long as such mid and upper level wind conditions persist, there won't be anything tropical to approach the US...in season or out.
As a matter of fact, the GFS and other models have been showing such a storm developing (or something warm-core and non-frontal):

Bongwe, huh? Flood would like that one...


Speak of the devil and he shall appear!
289. polyu
if anyone is interested in admining a forum or moderating one or even just being a member please visit this link

http://myweather.ipbfree.com/index.php?
290. IKE
From Birmingham, AL. afternoon discussion...

"For the weekend (saturday through Sunday night)...big changes will
take place across the area. Strong southerly flow will develop
throughout Saturday leading to an over-running situation area-wide
Saturday through Saturday night. For now will keep probability of precipitation mainly in
the chance category on Saturday...then likely probability of precipitation west and chance
probability of precipitation east Saturday night as the southerly flow increases.
Strengthening storm system to our west early on Sunday will race
eastward through the day. Models indicate surface low pressure
developing to our southwest and a warm front shifting from south to
north across the area on Sunday. Some concern for strong to
possibly severe storms Sunday night as upper system comes into
better phase with developing surface low...warm front and 65
degree dewpoints. This developing situation will continue to be
highlighted in the hazardous weather outlook. For now will forecast
likely probability of precipitation west and chance probability of precipitation east on Sunday...then showers
likely and a chance of thunderstorms area-wide Sunday night. Highs
in the 50s for Saturday...then mainly middle 50s to middle 60s on
Sunday. Overnight lows in the 40s for Saturday night and then in
the 50s for Sunday night."
Ike, how you doing?

that system developing in the gulf is going to stir up some weather up and down the coast.
293. IKE
Floodman 2:58 PM CST on November 20, 2007
Ike, how you doing?


Doing good....hope everyone here is too. Looking forward to the cold front w/rain tomorrow night here in the Florida panhandle...then a soaking rain this weekend from the GOM low.
294. IKE
Long term from Mobile, AL...

"Weekend weather picture more problematic. Forecasters are seeing continuity
amongst the global weather forecast models in bringing a low pressure
system...forming off the Texas coast Saturday...northeastward through
Louisiana and into Mississippi late in the day Sunday. Ahead of this
system...within an area of strong ascent...deep moisture and
increased daytime instability...strong to severe thunderstorms are
becoming possible.
This is supported by extended range forecasts by
Storm Prediction Center. Stay tuned to later forecasts as more specifics can be offered as
the event draws closer."
Yeah, we have a nice front dropping through tomorrow afternoon; 80s in front of it, 50s behind. Ready for some fall weather!
Just for fun:
""Landmark IPCC report issued
The Nobel Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released their final "Synthesis Report" Saturday. This massive effort, repeated just once every seven years by 2,000 of the world's top climate scientists, summarizes the current state of scientific knowledge on climate change, the likely impacts, and options for how to respond. All literate citizens of the world should at least skim the 23-page report.""

The IPCC definition of itself:
The IPCC shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize with former Vice President of the United States Al Gore.

The IPCC does not carry out research, nor does it monitor climate or related phenomena. One of the main activities of the IPCC is to publish special reports on topics relevant to the implementation of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

Glad we're not getting this information in a biased format.


flood,have you had much fall weather?
A little here and there...a cold front will blow through on a Wednesday, and by Saturday the temps are back in the 80s. The front for tomorrow, though is supposed to be longer lived; highs on Friday/Saturday in the upper 40s...
298. Floodman 9:40 PM GMT on November 20, 2007
A little here and there...a cold front will blow through on a Wednesday, and by Saturday the temps are back in the 80s. The front for tomorrow, though is supposed to be longer lived; highs on Friday/Saturday in the upper 40s...

looks like most of the country is going to be cool
Its been a very strange fall up here,more like summer in October,and now its more like winter,mother nature is being a little schizo
Guys....what about the swirl close to England? (Europe)
RSMC Nadi

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 02F
15.0S 177.0E - 25 knots 1005 hPa

moving southeast at 10 knots


Afternoon folks....

Saw this also, ike (nice to see you, btw)

.LONG TERM...FRI THROUGH TUE.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY EVENING...EXPECT NORTHWEST
WINDS AND DRIER/COOLER AIR TO FILL-IN ACROSS THE AREA FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD ONLY REACH THE MID/LOW 40S PROVIDED THE
SWRLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THESE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN GOMEX AND BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. THE
WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AND PLENTY OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...WHICH WILL KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES UP. BEYOND
THIS POINT...THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW THEIR DIFFERENCES.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS LIKELY TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
TSTORMS (POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE) TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD ON
SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
Hey Storm!! (I JUST got off the phone with a friend that used to teach aviation meteorology...we were talking about "col" ) *laffs*
Twin tropical Storms near the Philippines

Cheers AussieStorm
307. StormW 11:23 PM GMT on November 20, 2007

"col" as in col points. He'll give me something and I try googling for the info to read up on it. This one wasnt easy to find *laffs* because he just said, "Find me col".
impressive cyclone
311. IKE
BajaALemt 4:47 PM CST on November 20, 2007
Afternoon folks....

Saw this also, ike (nice to see you, btw)



Same here.

Check out the temp vs. the dew point in Amarillo,TX......


"Observed at: Amarillo, Texas
Elevation: 3606 ft
[Mostly Cloudy]
80 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 5%
Dew Point: 4 °F
Wind: 15 mph from the WSW
Pressure: 29.65 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Few 22000 ft
Mostly Cloudy 27000 ft
(Above Ground Level)".............



Temperature of 80...dew point of 4. Now that's some dry air!
IKE 11:41 PM GMT on November 20, 2007

FOUR????? lol
313. IKE
BajaALemt 5:43 PM CST on November 20, 2007
IKE 11:41 PM GMT on November 20, 2007

FOUR????? lol



And the humidity at 5%. Talk about dry-air. Better apply lotion to the skin!
Kind of intersting...NWS review of a missed event

Link
ROFL, Ike...the word.....CHAPSTICK went through MY mind :))
Gee.......it jumped to 19 *laffs*

Humidity: 12%
Dew Point: 19 °F / -7 °C
Wind: 3.0 mph / 4.8 km/h / 1.3 m/s from the WSW
Wind Gust: 5.0 mph / 8.0 km/h
Pressure: 29.62 in / 1002.9 hPa (Rising)
Heat Index: 75 °F / 24 °C
Visibility: 10.0 miles / 16.1 kilometers
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Few 22000 ft / 6705 m
Mostly Cloudy 27000 ft / 8229 m
(Above Ground Level)

WV
Storm? You ROCK!! *laffs* All I was able to find with col point in it was the link I posted to that NWS review. It shows a few slides denoting 'col point aloft'. Cool beans...thanks!
hello all
hello SW
Evenin 456

317. StormW 12:00 AM GMT on November 21, 2007

Soooooo, its a kind of "make it...or break it" force then?
hello baja
Hi everyone

Looks like the slow slide into the "off season ".

No cold fronts into the NW Caribbean yet but no doubt they will soon show up with cool winds and " sweater weather " LOL
Evenin Kman
Hi Baja

What's up ?
Seems the blog has completely died down ( which I suppose is to be expected )

I have not posted for about 2 weeks as nothing was brewing
Winter weather next which is not my forte !
Gulf of Alaska Low

I hear ya...it is relatively quiet.
The dry season has set in here now. With the exception of any rain we might get from a cold front it will be dry and dusty until May/June of '08.

My cistern under the garage is full ( 18000 gallons ) to water the lawn so all I need is the odd shower here or there to keep it topped up.

Hopefully there won't be any scares in '08 like Dean and Felix !!
At this point...Im just looking FOR rain (hopefully tomorrow)....and keeping an eye on Sunday or so...may be a little severe weather to watch. Winter's usually a good time for me to go back to my folder marked "educational" and start clicking :)
Another storm developing over Mid-East in the same area of the storm that caused the major oil spill and ship wrecks in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov. Luckily, a blocking high pressure system is developing over Western Russia which should keep the main steering westerlies south of the area.




Cool 456

(Your pics and commentaries are ALWAYS interesting)
thanks
And the Emmy goes to,...456!. Best Consistent Images in a Featured Blog!
Non Tropical Annulus

lol
That temperature and dewpoint is really comfortable as long as its green with no dust. That's my opinion. How can there be clouds with such low humidity?
You talkin about Amarillo? I found this.....*shrugs*......dunno

Link
....SYNOPSIS....

GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 40W....

Fair weather and light to moderate return flow are over most of the Gulf of Mexico in response to a high pressure ridge over Coastal Georgia. Increase cloudiness and showers are possible in widely scattered low clouds east of 90W and within mid-high level clouds extending from Mexico at 20N/100W to the Gulf of Mexico near 90W.

Pronounce advection covers a good portion of the Southwest Atlantic in response to building high pressure behind a cold front pushing southeast along 20N/60W 30N/50W. Extensive sheets of cold air stratiform clouds covers the area between the cold front and the East Coast...north of 30N. Exceptionally strong north winds and large swells between 55W and 75W north of 24N due to the pressure gradient between the high and a non tropical low in the North Atlantic. Some of these waves are impacting Bermuda and the Coasts of the Bahamas and the Northern Caribbean. Small craft advisory in effect from the Bahamas to Puerto Rico.

CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION....

A tropical wave continues to enhance convection along the length of Central America and the adjacent Caribbean waters with the heaviest activity south of 13N where the wave is enhancing low level lift along the ITCZ. Scattered low level moisture is seen over the North-Central Caribbean, Hispaniola and Puerto Rico where the tail end of the cold front is interacting with a broad surface trough lined across the Northeast Caribbean. Elsewhere across the Eastern Caribbean remains dry with fair to partly cloudy skies. The culprit remains confluent flow aloft within the right exit region of a persistent upper ridge.

High pressure north of the region is maintaining 15 knot easterly winds across the Caribbean. Seas are 5ft east of 70W but approaching 15ft across the Western Caribbean especially across the Colombian Coast. Small craft are advised to exercise caution in choppy seas.

by W456
bye
Does anyone think that the disturbed weather that will form on June 17, 2008 in the NW Caribbean will develop into a storm and hit us here in West Florida? We really need the rain....
T MINUS 241 HRS 15 MIN REMAIN
OF 2007 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON
Surprised that nobody has mentioned this yeat; the GFS has it on the verge of becoming non-frontal and already warm-core (who cares if it is no threat to land, it is a storm, or a possible storm, even if a subtropical hybrid, which I think Epsilon and Zeta were as well, even though the NHC called them tropical?):





Doesn't look very impressive right now, but it can happen at this time of the year; 2005 had three more storms after this date (such storms can also withstand what would normally be considered to be extremely hostile conditions). And how many people said that nothing else would develop about a month ago, only to have the deadliest storm of the season develop (somebody else said that people may have been caught off-guard, thinking the season was over)?
Does anyone think that the disturbed weather that will form on June 17, 2008 in the NW Caribbean will develop into a storm and hit us here in West Florida? We really need the rain....

No one can predict when a disturbed weather area is going to form over six months away. XD

Doesn't look very impressive right now, but it can happen at this time of the year; 2005 had three more storms after this date (such storms can also withstand what would normally be considered to be extremely hostile conditions). And how many people said that nothing else would develop about a month ago, only to have the deadliest storm of the season develop (somebody else said that people may have been caught off-guard, thinking the season was over)?

Hmm, STL, interesting. Dr. Masters himself said shear should become more favorable in December. It's only a bit over a week until December arrives. I would definitely keep watch on this. I'm thinking we're going to have a late season storm develop, or at least an off-season storm develop in December, because of the forecast low shear.
Good Morning, cannot stay, BBL


Another storm to impact Europe this weekend.

STL

Re your post #347.

It is unscientific to claim that Noel was the deadliest storm of the Atlantic season, inferring that it was of a strong gargantuan nature when it was not. This is a scientific study of the weather and not a study of its aftermath. Trying to tie one to the other is unscientific.

People were killed from the rainfall and mudslides, not from the direct winds or horrific wave action. A simple low presssure trough could have easily done as much damage and what could have been spun then? With an ACE of 67 for the entire year of 2007, versus an ACE of 285 for 2005, this year was a lamb.

Please, please save your bias for sports talk and the like and remember to keep your scientific hat on when you talk weather.
351. BtnTx
lindeniii killed the blog with post #350
Valid Points in my view.


Happy Turkey Cooking Everyone!!!!
GM to all
The UNYSIS 10-Day GFSx, shows a Fray along the Central Gulf Coast come Tues.

Link
Pat,there seems to be a couple of systems generated in the gulf,that may come up and effect us here in New England next week.
Keep ya Hats pulled down tight next week, Gonna See that fray run up the Neast looks like.
Maybe the fray will bring us some rain. We're thirsty here in GA.
Howdy, folks
maybe give southern georgia some rain.
Morn,Flood
Way off tropic:
Happy & Safe Thanksgiving!
Turkey Hunting Safety

NE, how are you?

Im good Flood,hope you and your family have a great Thanksgiving.
Thanks...the same for you and your family...I'm following HIEXPRESS' instructions on turkey hunting, so I should be good...LOL
Thanks Flood,
We will be busy enough with the cooking fires.
Unattended/Overfilled Fryers = Job Security!
Just in hiding for a month or so Hope all is well. I remember Iwa in Hi about 30 yrs ago. It ruined our Thankgiving dinner. If there is any food not eaten this yr leftovers aint so bad. Thanks all for the great yr.
Holy crap! STS Mitag (24W) must be rapidly intensifying. An eye feature is on ADT and look at the raw T#!!!!

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 2021NOV20 Time : 133000 UTC
Lat : 9:37:30 N Lon : 113:38:57 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.9 / 982.0mb/ 63.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.9 3.9 4.0 4.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +4.4mb

Center Temp : -84.5C Cloud Region Temp : -86.2C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
Oops wrong ADT number....here it is:

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 2021NOV20 Time : 133000 UTC
Lat : 14:13:44 N Lon : 131:24:56 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.7 / 980.8mb/ 59.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.7 3.7 4.1 6.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -28.9C Cloud Region Temp : -76.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.5T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF



Accidently put on Hagibis's but that raw T# is 6.3!
What's a FRAY (other than a rock band)?
Also to note, the one area of low pressure in the central atlantic that the phase diagrams show as becoming a warm core system is in an area of favorable wind shear
Good Morning.....This will probably be my last post for the year (until next hurricane season) but I wanted to wish everyone (includng Dr. Masters) a great and safe Thanksgiving Holiday.....Given the most recent reports on global climate trends, and Dr. Master's "ongoing" commentary regarding these issues, I suspect that the next several years of tropical seasons may be very interesting as the scientific community, and us, continue to watch what happens and evolves in the next few years...............Hope to see many of you on here next year.....It has been a difficult personal year for many of us, including myself, but in many ways, this Blog certainly helps me get through the Summer doldrums........Godspeed to all of you and here's hoping for a safe year ahead of us (although I suspect that Mother Nature will be throwing a lot of curve balls at us this Winter and through the Spring and next Summer).........Kudos
Another season over, glad to hear it. Two hurricane seasons in a row with only 5 hurricanes each, very nice! And hey, 3 of the 5 this barely made Cat 1. Of course, the other two were Cat 5s, so I suppose it all evens out. Either way, here's to hoping next year is just as tame :)
374. GBlet
Good Morning to everyone out there! Does everyone have their feedbags ready? I just saw the first flurries of the season!
375. BtnTx
Only having small feed bag this year as family spread across the nation. 1 Son and 1 Daughter in Navy, and another Daughter hopefully in Heaven as of May 28 this tough 2007 year.

Let us be Thankful for what we still have...
afternoon folks. Hows things?
377. BtnTx
...
Good afternoon all (or good morning depending upon your location).

Nice to see that we still have bloggers participating in the absence of tropical activity. It is pretty safe to assume that this hurricane season has come to a close.

This season was somewhat less active than predicted, so that is good news. Talking about this season, I will have "Season In Review" special on my site coming up on November 30 recapping a very unique hurricane season to say the least.

Well, I hope everyone has a safe and happy Thanksgiving holiday!!! I'll be eating a different bird other than crow on Thanksgiving! LOL.

PS Does anyone see any rainfall or major cold fronts sweeping through the South Florida area because I want both so bad, but I don't see any. Someone give me some hope please.
I'm back; be in and out fro the afternoon (hopefully a short one)...how is everyone?
cchsweatherman for now what we have for south florida atleast for the miami dade and broward counties is a period through about next tuesday of sunny and warm conditions with very low precip chances for the area.

You can always check South Florida weather conditions on my website which include temperature,precip,satelitte views etc...

www.Adrian's Weather.com
Hey Flood
weather.gov
National Weather Service

Marine Interpretation Message

WEAK LOW PRES DEVELOP ALONG FRONT FRI NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. LOW MOVES N TO LA COAST SUN NIGHT
DRAGGING A NEW FRONT OFF TX COAST. WINDS NOW PROGGED WEAKER THAN
GALE AND IN 20-30 KT RANGE WITH SEAS 6-9 FT.

Maybe a quick shot for the gulf.
swell that would give the upper gulf some nice swells.
afternoon,all
Bone, how you doing? Big plans for the next couple of days?
Bone-that could be true, I have seen the gulf go from 6' to flat in about 15 minutes. And I have also seen a highly angled north swell move almost paralell to the coast in southwest Florida. Going right meant going out!
CloudSat cross section of Mitag

Afternoon NE

Hey Flood, no big plans for Turkey Day. Visiting the folks house thats about it. Then back to work friday.

LOL ground. I know what you mean. Seen the same. Great swell in mid morning glass by dinner.
This is really a strange weather pattern for the east coast.There's a huge system se of the cape,a large anticyclonic spin off georgia/florida coast,a couple of fronts in the gulf stirring up a spin there,you get the feeling something big is going to get going.
Hi Flood, Bone, NEwx and groundswell...

I'm glad I happen to be online at a time when you're also around :-) I had a hell of a week so I could only peep in for some seconds. Only 3 more weeks to go, then I'm off on vacation.
I'll go and check on these three systems and on the European storm 456 announced. See you in a minute.

_o/ tipsku
Yea NE its like the atmosphere is getting warmed up for something big.

Might be the system forcasted for monday/tuesday
LOL The gulfstream is so warm compared to the surrounding water that it is showing up on IR channel 2 sat images

that gulf storm is projected to go right up over the northeast with hvy rains.
yea NE should be a big one

trying to see about snowfall potential now
heavy rain. Doesnt look like a snow event for us
yeh,thats the way I read it,too
yea the H8 temps will be warm until wednesday or thursday. I also dont see any blocking high.

We dodged a bullet it looks like. The Lake region though might be close enough to see some wet snow
a few of those storms in the midwest show rotation now :(
Arkansas looks to be the battle ground a little later today. The conditions are present..

LA looks bad also and so does the TX border near LA


this isnt good either :(

a lot of energy around
AT 202 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR
COUCH...OR 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF THAYER...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF OREGON COUNTY.
Looks like lake is going to get some hvy rain tonight
yea NE and then some white stuff tomorrow. 1 to 3 inches maybe.

Im looking at rain :( I hate wet holidays.. make it snow or sunny rain just stinks on the holidays
Looks rain will hold off until evening up here.
Good afternoon all
afternoon 456
A new NOAA research model indicates nutrients flowing from the Mississippi River may stimulate harmful algal blooms to grow on the continental shelf off the west coast of Florida. The peer-reviewed hypothesis is being published in a special issue on Florida red tide in the journal "Continental Shelf Research."

According to the model, algal blooms form on the Florida coast because of weather and gulf currents. The algae grows offshore, supplied with additional nutrients that appear to have originated from the Mississippi River, in a process driven by normal seasonal wind patterns.

Cloud Streets over the NW ATL



Zoom



This was pointed out by Bonedog earlier

This is the total opposite. Brisk winds being funneled through the valley of the Tehautepec Peninsula caused upwelling of cold water over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This was discuss a few weeks ago on this blog.