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Atlantic hurricane season preview: what are SSTs doing?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:18 PM GMT on March 07, 2007

Atlantic hurricane season is still a long way off, but we can start looking at Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic to get some idea of the severity of the coming season. A plot of the current SST anomalies (that is, the departure of the temperature from average) shows that the Caribbean and Atlantic waters stretching to the coast of Africa remain much warmer than normal, as they have been since 2004 (Figure 1). How does this warmth compare to the record-breaking SSTs observed during the disastrous Hurricane Season of 2005? Figure 2 show the difference in SST between 2007 and 2005 for February, and we can see that SST were about 0.5 C warmer in February 2005 vs. February 2007 in the region we care about--the hurricane Main Development Region (MDR) between 10 N and 20 N extending from Africa to the Central American coast.

Figure 1. The departure of Sea Surface Temperature from average for March 7, 2007. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Figure 2. The difference in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) between February 2007 and February 2005. Cool colors (blues and purples) are shown where the SSTs were warmer during 2005. Warm colors (yellows and oranges) are shown where it was warmer in 2007. Note the presence of an El Nino event in 2007 but not 2005 caused warmer SSTs in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific. SSTs in the Hurricane Main Development Region (red box) were about 0.5 C warmer in February 2005 vs. February 2007. Image credit: NOAA Earth System Research Lab.

The SST forecast
What can we expect SSTs to do in the coming months? NOAA's SST forecast (Figure 3) for the peak months of hurricane season (August, September, and October) projects a continuation of the above-normal SSTs at about 0.5 C above normal. This is a lot of extra energy to fuel intense hurricanes, but not nearly as extreme as the 1-2 C above normal SSTs observed in 2005. Long range forecasts of SST are not very reliable, but this forecast appears to be a reasonable one. It would take a major reduction in the trade winds over the coming months to allow SSTs to climb to levels seen in 2005 (slower trade winds reduce the amount of evaporative cooling, resulting in increased SSTs). While it is impossible to predict what the trade winds might do over the next few months, a sustained weakening of the trade winds for many months is an event that is unlikely. The best guess right now is that SSTs will be above normal this hurricane season, but nothing like observed in 2005. Based on this expectation, plus the demise of El Nino, and the fact we are in an active hurricane period that began in 1995, I am expecting a hurricane season perhaps 50% above average in number of storms and intense storms--but not a repeat of 2005.

Figure 3. The departure of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) from a 1990-2003 average as forecast by NOAA's Climate Forecast System (CFS) model. Note that this model is forecasting a moderate La Nina event in the Eastern Pacific during the 2007 hurricane season, and SSTs about 0.5 C above normal in the Main Development Region (MDR) for Atlantic hurricanes. The MDR is the region between 10 N and 20 N extending from Africa to the Central American coast, and includes all of the Caribbean Sea.

The steering pattern forecast
The next key question is--what will the steering pattern be for 2007? Will there be a trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. that recurves storms out to sea, as happened in 2006? Or, will a ridge of high pressure set up, steering hurricanes into the Caribbean, Florida, and U.S. Gulf coast, as happened in 2004 and 2005? I won't have a speculation on that until late May.

My next blog will be Friday, when I plan to review a just-released book about the most intense tornado of all time--the May 3, 1999 Oklahoma City twister. It's a great read.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

A new topic to Banter..Thanks Dr. Masters.
Good Topic Dr.Masters... I guess I will be third..
..the soups on Id say.
Thanks so much Dr.Masters for this all important blog.

Linkmaster luck Philly..LOL
Is anyone with me on the idea of a subtropical storm next week?
This Blip in the Atlantic next week?..Link
An interesting blog entry indeed. But remember--the so-called MDR was largely a non-player in the 2005 season, so focusing overly much on this area may be misleading. Of the most intense storms of 2005, two (Katrina and Rita) originated just west of the Bahamas, and Wilma spun up near Jamaica. So far, those areas are showing positive on the difference chart. We shall see....
Excellent point snowfire.
As You can see on the hurricane heat potential maps from today to back in 2005 this time of the year the heat content was much greater which played a big part in what ended up being the most incredible season ever.

(Hurricane Heat Potential March 7,2007)

(Hurricane heat potential March 7 2005)

Is the first chart showing 5 degrees fahrenheit warmer SST off the eastern US coast?
Here is the Heat Content back in 2005 on august 10,2005.

I posted it on the last blog. Posting it again incased you missed it.

The La Nina could only mean more rain here in So Cal since El Nino was so dry. No matter how dry the La Nina is there should be at leaste more moisture then what we got this year.

This winter has brought me nothing but anger. Here in So Cal after March any rain total becomes almost imposable to make up. Next year doenst look good as well.
Statement as of 6:10 am PST on March 7, 2007

... It is now the driest rain season to date in downtown Los

This rain season... or water year... is currently the driest to date
in downtown Los Angeles since records began in 1877. Since the
beginning of the water year... which began July 1 2006... downtown Los
Angeles has received just 2.42 inches of rain. That is a whopping
9.13 inches below the normal precipitation to date... which is 11.55
inches. To date... downtown Los Angeles has received only 21 percent
of normal rainfall. If downtown Los Angeles receives less than 2.00
inches of rain from now through June 30th... this will be the driest
rain season ever.

March... with an average rainfall of 3.14 inches... can be a very
wet month in Los Angeles... as in 1884 when 12.36 inches of rain
fell. However... there do not appear to be any major storms in
sight for Southern California. After March... average rainfall
drops off sharply in April to 0.83 inches... then to 0.31 inches
in may... and just 0.06 inches in June. Normal seasonal rainfall at
downtown Los Angeles is 15.14 inches.

Seasons with the least rainfall from July 1st through March 6th
are listed below.

Rank water precip % of normal final seasonal
season 7/1-3/6 thru 3/6 rainfall

1... ... ... (2006-07)... ... 2.42"... ... ..21%... ... ... ... ..????"
2... ... ... (1898-99)... ... 2.98"... ... ..26%... ... ... ... ..5.59"
3... ... ... (1923-24)... ... 3.06"... ... ..26%... ... ... ... ..6.67"
4... ... ... (1947-48)... ... 3.21"... ... ..28%... ... ... ... ..7.22"
5... ... ... (1903-04)... ... 3.25"... ... ..28%... ... ... ... ..8.72"
6... ... ... (1962-63)... ... 3.52"... ... ..30%... ... ... ... ..8.38"
7... ... ... (1960-61)... ... 3.99"... ... ..35%... ... ... ... ..4.85"
8... ... ... (2001-02)... ... 4.02"... ... ..35%... ... ... ... ..4.42" *
9... ... ... (1924-25)... ... 4.05"... ... ..35%... ... ... ... ..7.94"
10... ... ..(1998-99)... ... 4.28"... ... ..37%... ... ... ... ..9.08"

* driest season ever in Los Angeles

During the driest season ever... the 2001-2002 season...
precipitation from July 1st 2001 to March 6th 2002 was 4.02

Statement as of 6:10 am PST on March 7, 2007

... It is now the driest rain season to date in downtown Los

Adrian, that chart is actually after Katrina, and of course Dennis, Cindy, Emily, et al. The "heart" of the season, traditionally, yes, but in '05, the "heart" of several communities had already been broken by that time.
Indeed jake i changed the map to august 10 but either way you look at it the heat content is around the basin is not the same as it was in the historic 05 season.I truly hope there is no devastation along any U.S. coastline this season as the last couple of years have been really terrible.Last year showed that even if were in an acitve period of hurricane activity it does not mean every season is going to hyper active in between there could be slow seasons.Hopefully people will take this time and create an emergency plan for there familys just in case there area is asked to evacuate.All we can do now is just sit back and wait and see what mother nature has instored for us this time around.Adrian
i agree snowfire. dont forget about ivan got alot of his fuel from this area. jeanne and dennis were also close to this area. its an area to keep an eye on.
Adrian, if I'm reading your chart correctly, it looks like the heat "potential" is greater this March 7th than it was on 3-7-05. Is that right, or am I reading something wrong. Your chart gives the depth of warm water, correct? (Or at least the potential depth of warm water)
I can also tell you this, Adrian. Katrina, for all the bad that came of it, did accomplish one good thing. I worked in the area affected by Rita, and found that nearly everyone evacuated. (Beaumont, and points slightly north of Beaumont) One county in which I worked, not even a coastal county, had mandatory evacuation for 12 days!Hopefully, people will not soon forget the suffering that took place after Katrina, and will heed the warnings when they are given.
Enterprise Tornado..another View..
Its greater in some areas then others but SST'S are only slightly above compared to 2005.As Dr.Masters stated its unlikely trade winds will relax for a sustained period to allow for seas surface temps to reach 2005 levels.There will be extra fuel in place this season but nothing like 2005 is expected atleast not on my end.
thanks pat
Jake436 the way i see it is if a hurricane warning is issued for your area and your anywere in that cone you have to prepare as if the storm is coming right for you cause a tropical system can change direction in any given moment.This occured in south florida with katrina i remember listening to people on the radio wondering what in the world had happened and so on.The dip to the south was clearly unexpected but my point is all of south florida was placed under a warning and that means preparations have to rushed to completion.Alot of people dont realize that even a CAT 1 hurricane can be destructive and can be deadly if you choose not take the warning seriously.Alot of people went outside after katrina had passed and several lives were lost due to people stepping on down powerlines.In my personal opinion if emergency management in your area ask you to evacuate and you are in prone area for storm surge you should really consider leaving cause it may coast you your life.You can see what wilma did to south florida and all that was seen in miami dade county was CAT 1 winds maybe some gusts approaching CAT2.Now is the time to consider all this and be ready come june1.Adrian
RAMSDIS online..the Big Pic now...Link
pat......keep that link...as it is...posted till december...and my early predictions will prove true
I think it's bad news for places like Florida that we're seeing such high anomalies.
Ok...there's something wrong with the Florida State models page...it says:


You don't have permission to access /tcgengifs/ on this server.

Additionally, a 403 Forbidden error was encountered while trying to use an ErrorDocument to handle the request.
Those will prevent storms from weakening before landfall like they have been the past 3 years.For example,look at Frances,Ivan,Katrina,Rita.Those all weakened well off their peaks before landfall.
I got that too phillies.
Hope you're right, Dr. M.
kris....where do you live bud?
And for that matter...a storm does not have to gain stregnth in the MDR to be a big problem.Andrew for example,nearly died in the MDR,and then rapidly stregnthened in the waters east of the Bahamas.
Why Ric?
I hadn't been able to get in FSU either. Been using PSU.
cus i wanted to know...LMAO
The FSU page is being updated...
It seems like when Katrina crossed south FL the tourists weren't kicked out cause of the suprise move south & strengthining. The ultimate chase blog mentioned that, I saw it other places as well. 10 deaths was a lot for FL for a Cat 1.
Thanks Skye,but we're looking for phase analysis,which oddly is only available at FSU.
23 is was like that more than 12 hrs ago too. You sure? Saw the same thing a while back when legal issues arose...
Guys...more bad news.Saharan Dust is having below normal effects for this time of year.Look at this mid-level RH anomaly map for Febuary:

kris, check that link i put out there again, I noticed last night phase analysis has been added to PSU, scroll down.
Notice the far east Altantic is much moister than average.
Oh,thanks Skye.
hhhmm, that was all working for me lastnight.
Its probably being updated or something Skye i was not aware its been out for that long.Give it a couple of hours.
I'm so stupid..I just noticed I read that map backwards.Still...dust is having less effect this year than last year.

Yeah, I think you were looking at the Pacific.
Kris when katrina was intensifying right of the florida coast people ignored the warning and were out in the street like nothing was going on.If katrina would have had 6-8 more on water the outcome would have been much different.
Trolling around the FSU weather site. Never saw this one.

H23,I meant it's LA landfall.But yes,you're right about the Florida landfall.
The eye moved right over me.

I found other ways to the Phase Analiysis & other stuff, seems they may just be having problems, alot of stuff isn't working right at FSU. Your probibily right 23.

My play time is over..later.
LSU Earth Scan Page...Link
60 Hour GOM Surface Current Forecast Run...Link
Eye begining to show up on CIMSS infrared imagery george should intensify futher to cat3-4 status in the coming hours.

Issued at 1:05 am WDT on Thursday, 8 March 2007

A CYCLONE WARNING for a SEVERE CATEGORY 3 cyclone is current for coastal areas
from Pardoo to Mardie.
A CYCLONE WATCH is current for coastal areas from Coral Bay to Mardie.

At 12:00 am WDT Severe Tropical Cyclone George was estimated to be
460 kilometres north of Port Hedland and
555 kilometres north northeast of Karratha
and moving south southwest at 13 kilometres per hour.

Severe Tropical Cyclone George has shown recent movement to the south southwest
and slowed in speed. The system has intensified during Wednesday and further
development is expected as it approaches the Pilbara coastline.

Gales with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour may develop in central Pilbara
coastal areas between Pardoo and Mardie later on Thursday extending to areas
further west towards Exmouth during Friday and possibly Coral Bay later in the

On Friday, DESTRUCTUVE winds with gusts to 150 kilometres per hour may develop
on the Pilbara coast as the system nears the coast.

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone George at 12:00 am WDT.

Location of centre : within 35 kilometres of
latitude 16.2 south longitude 119.0 east
Recent movement : south southwest at 13 kilometres per hour
Central Pressure : 952 hectopascals
Maximum wind gusts : 195 kilometres per hour near the centre.
Severity category : 3

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at

The next advice will be issued by 4:00 am WDT Thursday 08 March.
As in Most ..low shear Mays & June..Im expecting to see first invests near Yucatan or BOC and be mostly heavy rain and low surge events..July unleashes the beast usually.Like Cindy in 05.
The first 3storms here could be an early guide as to where to focus this year..Link
And most certainly the D storm.Dennis.
Hey, If we were in hurricane season ill be paying attention to eastern cuba and the bahamas right now!this is were we might see a low develop this weekend and move northeast Subtropical who knows but i dont think so!
well in 2004/2005 we already had one by now right? So maybe in a few weeks we get our first taste. Geez, it feels like the beginning of football season or something...
It's been a while since I've poked my head in here at the good Dr.'s blog.

How is everyone? Here's hoping that 07 is more like 06 and less like 05. Of course even 05 wasn't bad for most of eastern NC... now 99, THAT was not the best of times around here!

Enough of my ramblings, keep us informed this season. You guys rock!

Just looking threw some vids in youtube and to me this still is one of the most incredible videos shot of CAT4-5 winds ever shot.Watch as the gas station gets ripped to pieces.

OOh yeah Adrian, I was caught in Charley in Kissimmee on Vacation in 2004. Scary Hurricane. While me and my friends were on the first floor of an apartment building trying to keep water from coming through the door crack, the third floor lost the roof. It wasn't the worst I've seen ( Andrew '92 ) but it was definetly #2.
Early stages of the largest tornado in US History. Eventually became 2.5 miles wide, before destroying Hallam, Nebraska

Yet another example of paying attention to the WHOLE CONE! Charlie came in a little further south than anticipated, and thus, sooner than expected. He was a baaad man!
Misterperfect Going threw andrew was a nightmare i use to live of US1 and 312 ave in homestead back in 92 and andrew completely leveled my house going threw that experience actually kicked of my passion for cyclones.
wBe Prepared this and Every Season..Have a Hurricane Plan of Action ..Link
I got one of those hand-cranked flashlights that also recharge the cell phone...pretty neat and valuable considering what I've put up with in the past...
Tropical Cyclone Advice #31

Severe Tropical Cyclone George [CAT 3]
16.7S 119.0E - 75 knots 950 hPa

wind gusts up to 105 knots

Severe Tropical Cyclone George [Category 3] was located 405 km north of Port Hedland and 505 km north-northeast of Karratha and moving south at 8 knots.

Severe Tropical Cyclone George [Category 3] has moved southwards overnight taking it closer to the coast. The system has intensified and may reach category 4 intensity today with wind gusts up to 135 knots near the center.

GALES with wind gusts up to 65 knots may develop along he central and eastern Pilbara coastal areas between Wallal and Mardie during today extending to areas further south and west on Friday and Saturday.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with wind gusts to 135 knots may develop along the central Pilbara coast overnight tonight or Friday morning as the cyclone approaches.

Tropical Cyclone Watches and Warnings
A CYCLONE WARNING for a SEVERE CATEGORY 3 cyclone is current for coastal areas from Wallal to Onslow and adjacent inland parts.

A CYCLONE WATCH extends further south to include Coral Bay, Mt Augustus and Newman

Tropical Cyclone Jacob [CAT 2]
12.9S 106.2E -- 60 knots 964 hPa

wind gusts up to 85 knots

Tropical Cyclone Advice #6

Tropical Cyclone Jacob [Category 2] is located 280 kilometres south-southeast of Christmas Is, and moving west at 10 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Jacob has moved west southwest overnight and is expected to slow down and re-curve to the southeast tonight, though there remains a high uncertainty in future movement.

The cyclone may move slightly closer to Christmas Island where gales with gusts up to 60 knots may develop later tonight, but impact on the island is unlikely. Thunderstorms with heavy rain are likely today which may result in localised flooding. A heavy northwest swell is likely to affect the island despite the motion of the cyclone.

Current Watch and Warnings
A CYCLONE WARNING for a CATEGORY 2 cyclone is current for Christmas Island.
After Katrina, I could have all the cell batteries in the world, but we couldn't get any signal. After a few days, we drove north about 15 miles, and finally picked up a signal. Post hurricane conditions suck!
MP...i have one of those....but the kids think it's their favorite playtoy.....luckilly..the generator..thay can't lug it around to easilly
CIMSS MIMIC..George Vmax 65 knots...Link
The Western Australia region just might have two Severe Tropical Cyclones if Jacob makes it to Category Three.
WHat happens is the Cell Tower Battery packs fade after a few days..They supplemented here now with solar backups for so many Channels...
Hello all
Hey Catadjuster. Did you check your mail?
CIMSS MIMIC JACOB Vmax 56knots Link
Patrap, you know I live in Mississippi. We just got computers! They probably haven't upgraded our towers with solar panels yet. LOL
That was a big problem..after the high rate for voice went down here after the storm,,.everyone learned how to text message overnight.That was quite a thing to see.
A do it yourself Hurricane Supply Kit ...Link
Posted By: ricderr at 8:38 PM GMT on March 07, 2007.
MP...i have one of those....but the kids think it's their favorite playtoy.....luckilly..the generator..thay can't lug it around to easilly

From what I've heard, toys don't last long these days...and if you were living in my town, you better bolt that generator to the foundation because people will come looking for them with blow torches. Nothing is safe even with an anchor chain!
Tiki Torches Glowing overnight in un-powered neighborhoods adds comfort and deters looters.As well as Ruger.
Yeah I got your mail, I havent got to write back yet I've been working on some boats trying to finish a few jobs up.
Boats?..I smell Fiberglass!..Sniff..Sniff..
I wish I smelled redfish slime right now.
Now ya talking Jake!...Splash and dash!
Yeah you right, cher!
1st tourney of the year for me is Lafitte, May 5th. Cannot wait.
no tiki torches...didn't think of that....course...we had no looters...wasn't that bad..or else...we just aint got nothin worth steeling..LOL.....but..becky was down in the keys..she asked me to check on her work....so...i grab the jeep...toss in inot4wd and off i go....first tree down on morningside...wench it away....of course...that gets me...could you move my tree so i can get out the drive...moved i think 7 trees..next time...which will never happen.....sprinklebottom forecast there...i'm chargin
Hello Guys!
Torches were for comfort ..no looters in My Parish ...
Pat, nice video. Trip you took? Capt. Charlie Thomason is good people.
Hurricane Erika Visible Image as She Moves Over 29 C Water

Pic of my trip 9 days after your vid was made. Same location, Hopedale.
Last Year, late May 2006, went charter fishing off of No Name Key, anout 22 miles North of Key West, We caught 4 Dolphin (Bull was 37 LBS), African Pompano (41 LBS), Amberjack (56 LBS), Mutton Snapper (17 LBS), 2 Baracuda (pretty big but i've seen way bigger), Jack Crevel (gave it the Capt. for bait), two Mangrove Snappers and we think we lost a Ballyhoo my brother fought for 30 minutes. That's one helluva fishing trip for 6 hours of fishing!!! And yes, I have pictures to prove it all...mmmmm, the Mutton Snapper was the tastiest!
Yeah I had to lay a transom today.Smell of success.
Having trouble with link. Sorry.
Nevermind. I'm going to link class...be right back.
No..just a link I used.Ive gone to Joes Landing some in the past..
Fishing good medicine..LOL
I told you we just got computers! I will learn how to do this, I promise!
jake436 this hit image

where you see bold link ltalics then next to that is images
hmmm......just thought of this...warmer waters...means..better mini season.......hello JULY!!!!!....gonna gas up the boat already
YES Ric! Better gas it up soon or you'll be paying over $3 a gallon come July
Check yur male, Taz
Three dollars a gallon, yikes!
jake43 i got it
Early stages of the largest tornado in US History. Eventually became 2.5 miles wide, before destroying Hallam, Nebraska

Thats a monster Taz, wouldn't want to be in the path of that beast.
Category 3, Severe Tropical Cyclone Jacob
70 knots - 956 hPa

wind gusts up to 105 knots
Eventually became 2.5 miles wide


This storm had an eye that was only 2 miles wide.

State Farm CEO Gets 82% Pay Raise
March 7, 2007

State Farm Insurance's chairman and CEO received an 82 percent raise after the company posted a record profit last year, a statement from the Bloomington-Ill.-based insurer said this week.

Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Ed Rust Jr. got a $5.26 million raise. He earned $11.66 million in 2006 with a base salary of $1.77 million and results-based bonus of $9.89 million, the statement said. Rust made $6.4 million in 2005 and $5.5 million in 2004.

The absence of a major catastrophe helped the insurer generate a record $5.32 billion profit last year, compared to $3.24 billion in 2005 when Hurricane Katrina hit the Mississippi Gulf Coast, release said.

after the company posted a record profit last year...

He earned $11.66 million in 2006...

And they want to raise insurance rates?!?!?! THEY ARE GREEDY!!!


The USS New Orleans, a San Antonio class LPD 18 ship, crosses under the Crescent City Connection Monday, March 5,2007 after making a ten mile journey downriver from Northrop Grumman shipyard in Avondale7 The ship is to Be Commissioned Saturday here.
hello all =)..... the gulf doesnt seem very warm this year,,, but the water around cuba bahams and florida is hot
128. 882MB
Can ya give us a link 882?
130. 882MB
Yes weathersp-http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/model_l.shtml
Then on the 3rd row you click loop!
Hello ?
882 not sure what youre seeing on the GFS but the 18Z is showing nothing out of this world indicateing rainfall amounts for south florida.What i do see is explosive intensification taking place with george.

133. 882MB
Hurricane23 its around the 154 hour-192hour.And i know its not much but its something, also the GFS has been trending wetter.Plus if we have a SHORTWAVE stalled over NORTH FLORIDA, plus rich tropical moisture and a cold front, we could see heavy rain also some strong thunderstorms!
Thats a lot of if's in 190 hrs..........
Thats a heck of alot of rain 882.
well you did say you need ran in FL and like i said be care full on what you wish for you this may get it
If that is really true some may get 5-10" of rain NOT SNOW! rain

Bermuda High has split 1028 mb high off the East Coast and a stronger 1031 mb high near the Azores

Meanwhile, back at the ranch...
P.S what that map mean is 7 name storm are for cast to make land fall and 4 of them makeing land fall stonger then cat 3 cat 4 or cat 5 i may have that mix up
Taz, that's an insane forecast. For everyone's sake, I hope you're wrong. No offense.
none take in

I hope you're wrong

Ummmm... Taz, that is what happens when you don't give the link to the forecast... he thinks that YOU made that forecast...
you can find the same map i post her!

OCSI Making perdictions like this can give people a false since of security and in my opinion its just way to early to really have a good idea on what areas might be in harms way this hurricane season.It will all determine on were the ridge sets up and honestly any speculation right now would be nonsence as we are just to far out from hurricane season.When may rolls around we should have a bettter idea of what steering patters might look like.Hopefully troffiness will be present and turn everything out to sea as we saw back in 2006.Adrian
Yeah hurricane23, I agree with you. And Taz, if that forecasts holds true, I better prepare this season. I live in Louisiana. I do think the Gulf Coast or the East Coast (I'd say the Gulf Coast is more likely) will be hit by at least one major hurricane this year.
Don't worry Taz, I don't think it's your forecast. I said I hope he's wrong, meaning about what that map means.
i got it now by the way if any one whats to find me i am on my blog but make sure you set your commet to Showing 50 Comments or my blog may be a little long for you when you come on
So, are you guys ready for the Atantic belch of storms or what... I AM!
Yeah, I am. I love active hurricane seasons. Not the death and destruction they bring, but I just like when storms flare up; it's an amazing phenomena.
and am ready to start rec huurricane from cnn or TWC when they make land fall
Recording them? What exactly do you MEAN, Taz? If you mean like capture them on film, nice. If not, I don't get it. >_>

I captured Isidore on film when it made landfall here in Louisiana. Being 60 miles away from the center, that thing still brought some pretty impressive winds and rain for a tropical storm.
Ignore my double post, btw. Didn't mean to do that.
By Mary Sparacello
Kenner bureau

Kenner is awaiting a letter from the Federal Emergency Management Agency today that could explain why the citys request to draw on a nearly $5.2 million disaster loan approved 15 months ago was denied.

Were not giving up the fight, said Mayor Ed Muniz.

The $5.18 million low interest community disaster loan was approved several months after Hurricane Katrina and had not yet been used.

The money from that loan is one way the city might try to clean out 2.5 million linear feet of underground drainage lines. Kenner had planned to pay for the job with $19 million from FEMA, but that request was denied in January and Muniz said officials are considering using the loan proceeds to pay for vacuum trucks to perform the line-cleaning in-house.
The debris left by Hurricane Katrina in the underground drainage lines slows the flow of rain water to drainage canals, city officials said. Kenner had estimated it would cost $19 million to hire a contractor to perform the work.

When Muniz, who took office in July 2006, eyed the low-interest loan money recently as a way to clean out underground drain lines, FEMA officials required that Kenner fill out more paperwork and said the loan request would have to be re-evaluated because Kenners revenues, mainly sales taxes, are higher now than when the city originally sought the loan.

Kenner Finance Director Duke McConnell said he was told over the phone Mondayby a colonel with the Governors Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness that the citys request to draw on the money was denied. The federal loan is distributed by the state.

McConnell requested reasons for the denial in writing. He said a FEMA representative told him in an e-mail that a letter regarding the loan would be sent today.

If Kenner is not allowed the loan, the city will appeal, McConnell said.

He said he hopes the letter will signal a turnaround from the states initial refusal.

FEMA spokesman Ronnie Simpson said Wednesday that official correspondence about the loan is expected to be sent today. He did not know what the letter would say.

As for the citys appeal of FEMAs denial of the $19 million request to hire a contractor to do the work, Muniz said a Wednesday morning meeting with FEMA officials in Kenner was productive. Also attending the meeting were representatives with U.S. Sens. Mary Landrieu and David Vitter, as well as state and parish officials.

At the meeting, held at City Hall, Kenner offered more proof that Katrina filled the drainage lines with debris, including listings of drainage calls for assistance that ballooned after the storm. The city was told in January that Kenner had not proven that Katrina caused debris to clog the drain lines.

Simpson said Kenner and FEMA officials will do some sample testing today of drain lines.

Muniz said the meeting started off tensely, but he felt good by the end.

I kept reiterating that we dont have a lot of time, he said, adding that he emphasized to the out-of-state officials that spring rains commonly bring the worst floods to Jefferson Parish. Ive been hurt before, but I really felt this time that they know this is a time bomb.

In the meantime, Munizs Chief of Staff Mike Yenni said the city is cleaning drain lines as fast as it can in the worst areas of the city using the one truck the city owns. Unfortunately, he said, the truck, has maintenance problems
Will the La Nina reduce some of the tradewinds in the Atlantic and won't that increase the SST's if the the tradewinds are reduced? Or is only windshear reduced because of the La Nina?
My Prayers go out to the folks in the path of this very powerful severe cyclone (george)landfall was made a short while ago with winds at 110kts.Eye seems to have remained very well intact as it approached land.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts to 275 kilometres per hour will be experienced close to the cyclone centre as the system crosses the coast.

DESTRUCTIVE winds with gusts to 170 kilometres per hour have developed on the central Pilbara coast between Port Hedland and Pardoo, and will extend inland with the cyclone centre.

GALES with wind gusts to 120 kilometres per hour are expected through the remaining parts of the warning area overnight and tomorrow.

WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN and FLOODING are likely across the Pilbara, with falls in excess of 200 millimetres possible close to the cyclone track.

DANGEROUSLY HIGH TIDES could cause EXTENSIVE FLOODING at the coast between Sandfire Roadhouse and Whim Creek.

Residents on the coast between Sandfire Roadhouse and Whim Creek including Port Hedland, are specifically warned of the potential of a VERY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE as the cyclone crosses the coast. On the current track Port Hedland is specifically under threat. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with very dangerous flooding and damaging waves.
CIMSS MIMIC now showing TC "George"..landfall. Link
Landfall Vmax..89knots
JTWC bumped up windspeeds to 110kts at landfall.
Good Morning H23
Check out the WUBA icon at the Bottom of this pagehere...Link

Water temperatures
Location Temp.
No stations reporting

issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Perth

For 24 hours commencing 1100utc 8 March 2007

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

Part 1 warnings
Hurricane Warning for severe tropical cyclone George 942hpa near 19.1s 119.0e at
080800utc moving south at 9 knots.
Storm Warning for tropical cyclone Jacob 968hpa near 12.7s 105.8e at 080700utc
slow moving.
Gale Warning south of line 43s080e 50s092e 50s110e 47s120e 48s129e becoming
south of line 43s080e 43s095e 50s102e 50s115e 48s129e by 090000utc and south of
line 47s080e 48s090e 43s100e 44s110e 50s120e by 091200utc.
Gale Warning between 23s and 33s east of 108e after 081800utc.

Part 2 situation at 0800utc
refer to latest warnings.
Ridge 36s080e to high 1026hpa near 36s086e 34s110e 40s120e 38s129e.
Monsoon trough from 10s090e to tropical cyclone Jacob to severe tropical cyclone
George to 11s125e.

Part 3 forecast
within 240nm of tropical cyclone Jacob, outside warning area:
clockwise winds 25/33 knots with squalls to 50 knots, rough seas, moderate
Remainder north of monsoon trough, outside warning areas:
W/NW winds 20/30 knots with squalls to 50 knots. Rough seas, low to moderate
Between continent and severe tropical cyclone George, outside warning area:
NE/se winds 20/33 knots tending N/NW east of 120e with squalls to 50 knots,
rough seas, low to moderate swell.
Within 120nm of ridge:
variable winds to 15 knots, slight seas, low to moderate swell increasing to
s'ly 20/30 knots between 100e and 120e and N/ne'ly 15/25 knots east of 120e with
rough seas low to moderate swell.
Remainder north of ridge outside of warning areas:
S/se winds 15/25 knots tending N/NE east of 120e. Moderate to rough seas, low to
moderate swell.
South of ridge outside warning area:
NW/SW winds 15/25 knots, increasing to 25/33 knots within 120nm of warning area.
Moderate to rough seas, moderate to heavy swell.
Dampier,Aust. WU page..Link
166. A4Guy
Following up on a post from last night....

the SSTs are warmer than 2005 in the areas where three of the four big storms developed (Katrina, Rita, and Wilma). Only Dennis developed inthe MDR. Depending on the steering patterns, there could be lots of fuel in and around the Caribbean, W. Atlantic, and Gulf for stoms to form and rapidly intensify.
168. Inyo
Long term forecasts just aren't working well right now. None of the ones for this area verified this year at all. I think it is because the climate is in a state of flux, rending analogy-based models inaccurate. The truth is ANYTHING could happen this year.

Last summer was an extremely strange one in California, the normal coast breeze totally got overridden by warm, relatively humid air from the east. Hopefully this year we get some fog.
169. Inyo
case in point if you look at this long range gfs model it attempts to bring some moisture into southern California by the end of the forecast period..

but it looks like a summer monsoon!

weird. I know 16 day forecasts are useless but still.
George overland

Inyo~ You have a good point about trying to use climatology to forecast at this point. Many forecasters including Dr Gray has mentioned how using the predictable past isn't working like it used too.
172. TS2
Hi Guys
Skye its incredible how the eye has remained fully intact after being completely inland for a while now.

Mark your calendar for the
National Hurricane Conference
April 2-6
Hilton Riverside
New Orleans, LA

Purpose of the Conference

The primary goal of the National Hurricane Conference is to improve hurricane preparedness, response, recovery and mitigation in order to save lives and property in the United States and the tropical islands of the Caribbean and Pacific.In addition, the conference serves as a national forum for federal, state and local officials to exchange ideas and recommend new policies to improve Emergency Management.

To accomplish these goals, the annual conference emphasizes: Lessons Learned from Hurricane Strikes!

* State of the art programs worthy of emulation.

* New ideas being tested or considered.

* Information about new or ongoing assistance programs.

* The ABC's of hurricane preparedness, response, recovery and mitigation -- in recognition of the fact that there is a continual turnover of emergency management leadership and staff.
Jacob is under 10-20 kts of shear, George is under 5-10kts of shear. Shear map.
Patrap i will be attending the florida Governor's hurricane conference in fort laudardale in a few weeks.Meeting up with a couple of old friends there.
George potent cyclone inland with fine structure still...impressive.
23~ I've been watching that on the infrared you posted lastnight. The eye is bigger now than a few hours ago. It's gotten bigger since it was on land. It was tiny for landfall.
Thats a good annual meeting in Fla I hear.
181. TS2
hello all this is what i like doing when it be comes hurricane season

her is part 2

i hop you like them
Here is a view of George on modis satelitte.

TS2 I was about to post that satalite! lol. I'm suprised the blob to the NE of George isn't an invest. It's blown up a bit in the last few hours.
NOAA's image of the day..

186. TS2
Yeah i know. I guess they havn't spotted it yet
by the way did any of you see my youtube videos make sure you see them be for they get too far down and give me a commet on how you like it
Taz so your gonna be chasing lake effect snow storms this 'cane season??? lol, thanks for the laugh.
lol sky
Synopsis: A transition from ENSO-neutral to La Nia conditions is possible during the next
2-3 months.
The pattern of anomalously warm SSTs associated with El Nio disappeared from the
equatorial Pacific east of the date line during February (compare top and bottom panels in Fig. 1).
By the end of the month, SSTs were near average in the vicinity of the date line, and below
average over the eastern equatorial Pacific between 140W and the west coast of South America.
Also, the main area of anomalously warm SSTs along the equator had become centered well west
of the date line, which is also consistent with the disappearance of El Nio.
The latest weekly SST departures have decreased to near 0.5C in the Nio 4 region and
to near 0 C in the Nio 3.4 region, and have become slightly negative in the Nio 3 and Nio
1+2 regions (Fig. 2). Accompanying this drop in SST anomalies, the equatorial upper-ocean heat
content (average temperature departures in the upper 300 m of the ocean) decreased rapidly
during December 2006-January 2007 (Fig. 3), as the upper ocean cooled and negative
temperature anomalies developed. These trends in surface and subsurface ocean temperatures
indicate that the warm (El Nio) episode has ended and that conditions are becoming favorable
for La Nia to develop.
Most of the statistical and coupled models, including the NCEP Climate Forecast System
(CFS) (Fig. 4), indicate additional anomalous cooling during the next 2-3 months. Some of the
forecast models, especially the CFS, indicate a rapid transition to La Nia conditions during
March-May 2007. This scenario is supported by the latest surface and subsurface oceanic
conditions, and the persistence of stronger than-average low-level easterly winds over the central
equatorial Pacific.
H23....i'll be there too...look for my bald head...we'll talk
As far as maintaining Structure. Port Headland is rather flat along the coast
193. TS2
Click for larger view

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us
by the look at dr m sea temp map La Nia is geting stonger
Interesting area of disturbed weather in the bahamas area currenty associated with a troff according to the NHC .If it lingers something may try to pop up.Very low chance of anything happening but worth watching.A weak surface low may try to form.

90L is on the way
198. TS2
Doubt it Taz
i see hurricane season whats to get a good start in thing
200. TS2
It's in a area with 70-80 knots of shear
well it looks good under all of that wind shaer whats see what dr m has to say about it
NHC discussion from earlier this morning...

203. 882MB
Wow looks like an early start to the hurricane season just take a look at what i found in accuweather.com-NAM Tropical Storm?The NMM model is showing a growing low pressure system coming out of the Gulf, across Florida and falling to 1000mb at the end. Could Tropical Season be beginning already? The DGEX sees it too, but as a 1008, the GFS only 1014, neither with as many isobars packed around it.
I saw the model myself pretty interesting!
204. TS2
Taz do you ask Dr. Masters about every little thing?
882mb i honestly doupt it but its happened before.

TS no i dont i this want to no what dr m think about the disturbed weather in the bahamas thats all
The 10day GFSx showing the Low Taz..Link
pat is that the same low that we are talking in the bahamas ?
Yes..the Atlantic Low lifts North then into the Canadian Maritimes..
210. TS2

George has intensified while over land
thanks pat
: Patrap dos it have a ch of be comeing a TD or TS or 90L in the comeing days?
Taz..you can watch the Atlantic low forming here and as it moves North...This is the Canadian Weather Service..Link
thanks pat
Thats a good question Taz...We will have to see how the situation develops..Its awful early. Its March 8th,..but one has seen April Development in the ATlantic before..and many things seem to be happening earlier this spring.Either way.Its yours to keep tabs on.You should maybe do a new blog on it.
Nogaps also seems to also think something will try and get going in the GOM.

i will start a new blog on it
now where dos that make land fall and how stong 23?
TAZ the NAM and the NOGAPS seems to develope an area of disturbed weather in the GOM in the coming days but as i said before the chances of this actually taking place are slim.But also keep in mind its happend before but its quite rare.
220. TS2
Any ideas on a blog i could put up?
can you post the NAM map her like you did the NOGAPS map thanks so i can put it on my blog
anything but global warming please
223. TS2
Don't worry i'm not going to put up a GW blog
A blog on the Spring Equinox and how it relates to Us and such.Lotsa stuff there as it approaches.
Heres a link on that ..Link
226. TS2
i'll put up a blog about the Equinox in general.
by the way oh wants to be 1st in my new blog
how about the reason behind the early daylight savings time this year...energy concerns apparently
Here is the 18Z NAM.The 00z seems to drop this area.

23 thanks dos that have a ch be be come may be a 40 mph TS?
my blog is up date come on oh want to be 1st
Daylight Savings Time 2007..Link
Very slim chance TAZ as development this time of year is rare.If this were mid june early july then it would have a better chance.
i been wanting to no what could this new Daylight Savings time do to the weather

one thing for sure is that the more sun we get the more and more t-storms we get and they would last longer has well t-storms love the sun and the longer the sun stays up the longer we would have the t-storms

thanks 23
Dude, you do realize that just because we are changing the clocks doesn't mean that there is any additional daylight. Daylight savings time has no effect on the weather.
sure it dos

the longer the sun stay up the t-storm we may have and higher day time highs has well
Taz...at first I thought what a dumb question, considering that plastic junk is manufactured from plants which run 24 hours a day. But it must also be considered that during daylight savings time the polystyrene storefronts which sell the plastic junk can stay open an hour longer before it is too dark to walk to the parking lot. So it can be argued that daylight savings time increases global warming.
Good day - I've just joined the blog and am very excited by what I find here! I'm particularly interested in the source for the Depth of Isotherm and the SST Anomaly images posted. I would really like to be able to pull similar data for the same dates for prior years (i.e. March 7, 2006 and 2004) so I can present comparisons to my peers. Is this data available in a public archive somewhere? If so, I'd really appreciate if someone could point me in the right direction. Thanks!
welcome : markbda
Hey guys. Look the models are just spinning their wheels here in my opinion. The GFS is forecasting 40-70kt shear over the entire Gulf and west Atlantic throughout the next 2 weeks and nothing is going to form. Yes I know after 2005 and the December storms anything seems possible, but in reality this is very near unimaginable to me.
Not to mention SSTs are still way way too low for TC development. And do you guys remember what the GFS was forecasting to form east of Florida a few days ago? Did it ever materialize? No, it most certainly did not. The models are just "practicing" for the season lol.
LSU earth scan labs for SSTs..Link

You do realize that the area of low pressure you reference to is nothing more than a gale center...
245. TS3
H23, Where did you get the Models that are predicting the G Storm?
Here TS3. Link
Hey Hurricane23 How ya doing? Me just working.
248. TS3
Thanks Levi.

If you didn't know already this is Thunderstorm2
Ok, I figured it might be you. Thanks
Thanks hurricane23 and others that provided links to the imagery - much appreciated!
I've gotta go now. Be back later. Don't get too excited lol. It's a 1 in a 1000 that this will form.
253. TS3
Levi gave me the Penn state models.

Thanks though for the NCEP C O Link
254. TS3
Later Levi
Guys as ive stated tropical development at this time of the year is very rare and if this were mid june or early july then i would be a little more concerned and even if this area were to develope which is unlikely it would move out to sea and not affect any land areas.Adrian
that troll took my blog Title
TAZ: What was your blog title? And who took it?
Sheri check mail...
cat it was OddbutNice or i sould say Oddbutmean
Unfortunately for the hurricane lovers the system forecast to develop off the southeastern coastline this weekend is nothing more than a gale center. It has no tropical characteristics on forecast models.
Thanks for the info
I love reading this blog, its been some of my best reading for the past few seasons.
263. TS3
Hi again
Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Severe Tropical Cyclone George has made landfall at 916hpa as a Category Four. Wind gusts of 275 kmph have been recorded at Kilburra. George's well defined eye has collapsed inward as George moves inland where it is weakening. Expected to redevelop in about two days time where it should make its second landfall near Perth.
171mph gusts! :-O That's cookin! Strong Storm!
266. TS3
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Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us
That could be bad news.
269. TS3
no doubt it will be bad news
A stronger high means stronger trade winds though, which means cooler SSTs and lowered chances of development (storms don't like moving too fast).
STl,that's the 500mb map I posted.Not the surface.
The 500mb geopotential height map.
They don't take well to all that subsidence either.

All one has to do is look back to the tropical systems of '06 that developed in the east Atlactic. They had a really tough time getting going until they past 50W longitude
274. TS3
(storms don't like moving too fast)

They can move at quite a bit and maintain some power like Hurricane Gordon demonstrated last year
275. TS3
Woooops i forgot to say hi kris
276. TS3
and hi STL
Hi;you are TS2,right?
Actually,some of the strongest storms moved at a pretty fast speed.Examples are Andrew and Charley,just to name some off the top of my head.
All one has to do is look back to the tropical systems of '06 that developed in the east Atlactic. They had a really tough time getting going until they past 50W longitude

The same was true of many of the storms in the disasterous 2005 season (most of the storms developed far to the west - near land).
280. TS3
yes i am TS2 kris
This year didn't have a problem east of 50W:

I think I should say that strong trade winds inhibit development of storms. If you look at TSR's forecast, they cite weaker trade winds as a positive factor in development:

The key factors behind the TSR forecast for an above-average hurricane season in 2007 are the anticipated moderate enhancing effect of July-September forecast trade winds at 925mb height over the Caribbean Sea and tropical North Atlantic region (7.5oN - 17.5oN, 30oW - 100oW), and of August-September forecast sea surface temperature for the Atlantic MDR (10oN - 20oN, 20oW - 60oW). The current forecasts for these predictors are 0.910.70 ms-1 (up from last months value of 0.680.70 ms-1) weaker than normal
I didn't say they didn't STL.I said that the map I posted was a 500mb geopotential height anomaly map.
you do realize that you posted a map of the 2004 hurricane season??

I'm talking about 2006, dude.

Strong high pressure and dry air over the eastern Atlantic surpressed most of the tropical systems until they past 50W longitude.
I've said before that trade winds lower the chances of storms.
286. TS3
I agree with kris
STL, however, most of those storms in 2005 had developed west of 50W whereas most of the 2006 storms developed east of 50W
288. TS3
After reading that, who knows where the storms are going to form this year
Sullivan,maybe I should've phrased it differently.What I meant was just an observation.I knew I'd posted 2004.
291. TS3
ok kris

hot and dry here again. Lots of haze and smoke. Visibility 5 miles. No sahara dust for a change, but with the smoke around it was pretty grim.
mention was made about the bermuda high this year, what is the predicted location of the high this year?
295. TS3
Proposed Extratropical System

Click for larger picture

296. TS3
Click on pic for larger view.

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us
297. 882MB
Dahm i cant get the NEW 12Z NOGAPS!
Posted By: TS3 at 6:42 PM CST on March 08, 2007.

Click on pic for larger view.

That is actually around 1032-1034 mb; 1040 mb is the bright pink color (notice that it is surrounded by red, 1028-1032 mb; also, each isobar is 2 mb).
ts3 - why di popups appear if i click on your pic? That is poor form dudette. I recommend not clicking on ts3's pics unless you like a stream of total trash to ensue.
Very nice, man.I applaud your manners.
The saying goes if it's a hurricane before it reaches 40, it's going out to sea. If it becomes a hurricane after 40 lookout. The map of 2004 that Kris posted is an excellent example of this.
I thought the saying was if it reaches 20N before 60W you don't have to worry about it?
i will not commet you stormygace goodbye troll
Tropical Cyclone Jacob [CAT 2]
14.5S 108.1E -- 60 knots 968 hPa

wind gusts up to 85 knots

Tropical Cyclone Advice #14

Tropical Cyclone Jacob was estimated to be 520 km south-southeast of Christmas Is and 1160 km northwest of Karratha and moving southeast at 6 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Jacob has intensified slightly and is continuing to moving to the southeast. This movement is likely to continue during the next 24 to 48 hours during which the cyclone may accelerate slightly and intensify further. The cyclone may approach the Pilbara coast late on Sunday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches and Warnings
A CYCLONE WATCH for CATEGORY 2 CYCLONE JACOB has been declared for coastal areas from Coral Bay to Sandfire, extending inland to include Tom Price and Marble Bar.
The area is already under a Cyclone Warning from George. :X
308. TS3
Stormeygace, i would like to applaud you for manners, i'm sorry to say that if pop-ups come up on your screen when you click my pics then that's not my problem.

If that were to happen to me then i would have installed a pop-up blocker (which i have already got) to stop the pop-ups getting through.
I clicked on TS3's pics, and no pop ups appeared on my screen.
310. TS3
Either he is making up a 'whole load of trash'

Or it is his computer.
Taz -

DST has NO EFFECT. What don't you understand about this? Just because you arbitrarily change the time on the clock doesn't mean you get an additional hour of daylight. Sure, by the clock the sun sets an hour later, but it also rises an hour later. There is no increase in the actual day length.