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Atlantic hurricane season forecasts for 2008 released

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:06 PM GMT on April 09, 2008

A well above average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2008, according to the latest seasonal forecast issued today by Dr. Bill Gray and Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University (CSU). The Gray/Klotzbach team is calling for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes. An average season has 10-11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The new forecast is a bump up from their December forecast, which called for 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes. The new forecast calls for an above average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (45% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (44% chance, 30% chance is average). The Caribbean is also forecast to have an above average risk of a major hurricane.

The forecasters cited several reasons for their forecast of an active season:

1) Above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern subtropical Atlantic and cooler-than-normal SSTs in the South Atlantic have weakened the Bermuda-Azores High. This has resulted in lower surface wind speeds over the tropical Atlantic, and these weak trade winds are expected to persist into hurricane season. Weak trade winds reduce the amount of evaporative cooling of the ocean, resulting in warmer SSTs and lower surface pressures during hurricane season. Hurricanes like to form in an environment with low surface pressures and high SSTs.

2) Hurricane activity in the Atlantic is lowest during El Niño years and highest during La Niña or neutral years. The current strong La Niña event has begun weakening noticeably in the past few weeks. However, there is probably not time for a full-fledged El Niño event to replace it by hurricane season, and it is expected that we will have weak La Niña or neutral conditions this hurricane season. None of the computer models are forecasting a switch over to El Niño conditions this year (Figure 1). Keep in mind, though, that the accuracy of these long range models is poor, particularly for forecasts made in March and April.

3) We are in the midst of an active hurricane period that began in 1995.

How accurate are the April forecasts?
Today's forecast includes the statement, "These real-time operational early April forecasts have not shown forecast skill over climatology" during the 13-year period 1995-2007. In other words, today's forecast has no skill, and should merely be viewed as an interesting experimental research product. I like the fact that they are trying to make useful seasonal hurricane forecasts, but we should wait until their June 3 forecast before putting faith in their 2008 hurricane season forecasts. The CSU team has posted an Excel spreadsheet of their forecast errors (expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient, where positive means a skilled forecast, and negative means they did worse than climatology). You can see from their numbers that the December and April forecasts have near zero skill, but the early June forecasts have substantial skill. To rectify their poor April forecast skill, the CSU team is trying a new scheme for this year's April forecast. Hopefully the new scheme will show positive skill forecasting upcoming hurricanes seasons, and not just "hindcasting" the past ones. For now, you're best off just paying attention to their early June forecast, which has been quite skillful over the past ten years.


Figure 1. Computer model forecasts of El Niño/La Niña made in March. The forecasts that go above the red line at +0.5°C denote El Niño conditions; -0.5°C to +0.5°C denote neutral conditions, and below -0.5°C denote La Niña conditions. Image credit: Columbia University's IRI.

2008 Atlantic hurricane season forecast from Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.
The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR), issued a 2008 Atlantic hurricane season forecast this week as well. TSR has almost the same forecast as the CSU team--14.8 named storms, 7.8 hurricanes, and 3.5 intense hurricanes. Unlike the CSU team, these numbers represent a decrease from their December forecast numbers, which were 15.4 named storms, 8.3 hurricanes, and 3.7 intense hurricanes. I like how they put their skill level right next to their forecast numbers: 7% skill at forecasting the number of named storms, 11% skill for hurricanes, and 10% skill for intense hurricanes. That's not much better than flipping a coin, but it is better than the near-zero forecast skill of the Gray/Klotzbach April forecasts. However, TSR doesn't mention the fact that part of their skill may be due to the fact that they issue forecasts of fractional storms (we're not going to get 7.8 hurricanes this year!) If we round these numbers to whole storms, the TSR skill numbers may decrease.

TSR projects that four named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.7 of these being hurricanes. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.5 named storms, 0.7 of these being hurricanes. TSR cites one main factor for their forecast of an active season: slower than normal trade winds July-September over the Caribbean. Trade winds are forecast to be 0.4 meters per second (about 1 mph) slower than average, which would create greater spin for developing storms, and allow the oceans to heat up due to reduced evaporational cooling. TSR forecasts that SSTs will be near average in the tropical Atlantic during hurricane season.


Figure 2. Accuracy of long-range forecasts of Atlantic hurricane season activity performed by Bill Gray and Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University (colored squares) and TSR (colored lines). The CSU team's April forecast skill is not plotted, but is near zero. The skill is measured by the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS), which looks at the error and squares it, then compares the percent improvement the forecast has over a climatological forecast of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. TS=Tropical Storms, H=Hurricanes, IH=Intense Hurricanes, ACE=Accumulated Cyclone Energy, NTC=Net Tropical Cyclone Activity. Image credit: TSR.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. pottery
Fury, the dust clouds are coming off the Africa coast all right, but the wind directions dont seem to be favourable for them to impact on anything Atlantic. This may change anytime though.
Pottery, Lol....It probably doesent have any circulation but it definitily looks to have some slight turning to it....Not that its going to develop but conditions are'nt so bad.

My eyes are likely fooling lol.

1003. pottery
Fury, go back to the commentary. 117 to get from 138 balls or something like that !
I don't think anything will form until June or so. Of course I probably would have said the same thing last year at this same time and I would have been wrong.
ok pottery i will go to the tv see ya later
Well we DEFINITLY won't see any development with the area near 10N and 60W Shear is 30-40 knots.

Next candidate?
One already eliminated from the contestants!
haha lol.
What if the predictions were calling for 1-1-1 for this season?Numbers predicted are not of any significance whatsoever.If you live you near an area were you are vulnerable to tropical cyclones you should take the coming weeks and create that emergency plan for you and your loves one.

Here is a quite season for you.

img src="" alt="" />
1008. hahaguy
agreed adrian
I went to the Mississippi River levee here in Baton Rouge today. The water is pretty high. Yesterday I noticed that water was coming out of the sewer system and flowing down the street, but it could just be a broken pipe...

Anyway, I'm looking for feedback. The following page shows an animation of the northern Gulf region every 15 minutes (and sometimes every 5 minutes):

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/animate/goes/index.php?region=ngulf&channel=lc

Notice the controls on the bottom, also. I'll be adding more regions. I'm also working on making the enhancement for the water vapor channel better.
They opened the spillway down your way Hurricanman.
1011. Patrap
From Nola.com,Times Picayune
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers opens the Bonnet Carre Spillway.



The Spillway is Below Baton Rouge so the Flooding that is expected around LSU and other areas in Baton Rouge wont benefit from the Structure opening. Baton Rouge may see some more minor flooding thru the period of High Water below St. Louis
1012. Patrap
LSU Earth Scan Lab Link

I think I'll go back down to the levee and take pictures.
Patrap,

That's the training lab. We don't use that room often. I'm not sure why we don't have a picture of the main lab online.

Here's a picture of me in the lab where we do most of the work.



Of course, that's MODIS true color I'm working on.
1015. Patrap
Thanks HM,,Ive had the tour..Its a neat Place.

Yeah, get some pics,we all would like to see the High River up Near Red Stick.

Will be up that way Weds on way to Houston.Will take some pics there too.

1016. Patrap
The Tropical Weather Link on the WAVCIS Page is the wunderground Tropical Site. A lot of folks use the page.Link
Hey, so it does. I've never seen that page before.
The resulting diffluent flow has intiated a trof at the surface and this is depicted on the visible wind product from the CIMSS which showed wind shifts assoicated with low level perturbations. Also high resoluation visible imgagery showed cloud elements moving southeastward east of the indentified axis.



The Key West WX discussion this afternoon (Saturday) starts off with "April is groovy" mmmmm----yes.
1018. Weather456 5:27 PM EDT on April 12, 2008
The resulting diffluent flow has intiated a trof at the surface and this is depicted on the visible wind product from the CIMSS which showed wind shifts assoicated with low level perturbations. Also high resoluation visible imgagery showed cloud elements moving southeastward east of the indentified axis.


Is that the area i mentioned earlier? Near 60W 10N? I thought my eyes were tricking me...but i guess there really is some sort of spin to it.


1021. Patrap
GOM 120 hour Sea Surface Temperature Model Link

GOM 120 Hour Surface Current Forecast Link
But shear over that area SHOULD hinder any development.
I never saw "groovy" in a wx discussion before :P Link Link
1024. Patrap
The Forecaster from there is over 45 I bet, LOL

1026. hahaguy
hippies lol
1020. CaneAddict 5:34 PM AST on April 12, 2008
1018. Weather456 5:27 PM EDT on April 12, 2008
The resulting diffluent flow has intiated a trof at the surface and this is depicted on the visible wind product from the CIMSS which showed wind shifts assoicated with low level perturbations. Also high resoluation visible imgagery showed cloud elements moving southeastward east of the indentified axis.

Is that the area i mentioned earlier? Near 60W 10N? I thought my eyes were tricking me...but i guess there really is some sort of spin to it.


The trough axis is near 57W. I do see an ill define spin near the coordinates u gave.
1020. CaneAddict 5:34 PM AST on April 12, 2008
1018. Weather456 5:27 PM EDT on April 12, 2008
The resulting diffluent flow has intiated a trof at the surface and this is depicted on the visible wind product from the CIMSS which showed wind shifts assoicated with low level perturbations. Also high resoluation visible imgagery showed cloud elements moving southeastward east of the indentified axis.

Is that the area i mentioned earlier? Near 60W 10N? I thought my eyes were tricking me...but i guess there really is some sort of spin to it.

The trough axis is near 57W. I do see an ill define spin near the coordinates u gave.


What exactly does the navy or NHC have to see with an disturbance to call it an Invest?
HurricaneMan how ultimately cool on post 1014 :)

And for you Louisiana people, this web site gives you river info Link
What exactly does the navy or NHC have to see with an disturbance to call it an Invest?

Well all invests I knew had similar characteristics:

A synoptic size area of disturbed weather persisting for at least 24 hrs outside diurnal variations that has the potential to develop and/or threaten land.
1030. Weather456 5:50 PM EDT on April 12, 2008
What exactly does the navy or NHC have to see with an disturbance to call it an Invest?

Well all invests I knew had similar characteristics:

A synoptic size area of disturbed weather persisting for at least 24 hrs outside diurnal variations that has the potential to develop and/or threaten land


So technically, We have our first invest of the season but the NHC likely wo'nt declare it because the chances of it becoming a depression are very slim. Arent you surprised to already be seeing activity never the less this early?
So technically, We have our first invest of the season but the NHC likely wo'nt declare it because the chances of it becoming a depression are very slim. Arent you surprised to already be seeing activity never the less this early?

I dont think that area has been persisting for more than 24 hrs outside diurnal variations and I dont think it has potential to develop. The possible AEW earlier this week is still suprising me.
True, But there is always the chance, and didnt that possible EAW die?
No Invests as of yet, but on the interesting side of things, both GFS and CMC models are showing something developing next week off GA/FL coast. CMC, I know, can't be relied upon, but is still interesting, anyway.
1033. CaneAddict 6:01 PM AST on April 12, 2008
True, But there is always the chance, and didnt that possible EAW die?


currently there are little signs of it...so i wud assume so. Somestimes these features do not die completely but become unrecognisable until they reappear further westward in the CARIB Sea or EPAC.
Yeah i think we will see an invest at least sometime within the next few weeks.
1037. hahaguy
ya the cmc is worthless 98% of the time.
Other then the CMC model, The UKM, GFS, NOGAPS, are all forecasting development off the norththern coast of Florida, or east of South/North Carolina....
CMC did catch Olga though from what I saw.
atlantic basin
no classification present
It is only April. Christmas for hurricane junkies isn't till June. With the amount of cold air on it's way toward Florida there will be no tropical activity worth investigating till May if that early. Just relax everyone, the season will be here before you know it.:0)
Model Extratropical/Tropical Cyclogenesis and Storm Tracks

common ivan u know every little shower will be an invest in here then when one really forms it be like wow were that come from lol
Cyclone phase diagrams indicated any cyclogensis occuring offshore will be non tropical in nature.
remember stock up on the spam ur gonna need it
April, May, June, July, August, September, October, November. Doesn't really matter. Hurricanes and tropical storms know no season. If we had one pop up in the middle of winter, it wouldn't really be any different. Besides, we just give hurricane season a certain amount of months just to make everyone else feel cushy about it. Truth is, no one knows when or where one will form.
but june to nov is the season and the best chance to have them with highest chance or peak in mid september
I know this, Keeper. Just making a point is all.
i understand
While there has been a lot of talk about the Atlantic having an active season, I have an idea that the East Pacific may be very active this year; for one, SSTs near Central America are well above average, as is the MPI, which is already crazy high; shear has also been lower than average recently, and there have been some interesting blobs already:





Keep in mind that it is only April and SSTs are only going to warm (unless they cool to normal levels again, which I think is unlikely).


(this shows shear east of 110W, which is also the warmest/highest MPI area, it is lower than average west of 110W as well)
1051. Patrap
WAVETRAK - Northern Atlantic Sector Low Level
Visible and Infrared Winds Link

Latest Available
Split Window
GOES-WestLink
April is the month that has had the lowest amount of tropical activity in the Atlantic basin. So I'm not even looking at the tropics now.

The first cold front has gone through--we had a max of 87.6 at the house, and 88 officially on the island (not a record) and 90 on the mainland @ Brunswick. It has cooled off nicely now to 70.0 at my house. CAA ongoing is fairly weak, so the temperature should fall steadily but slowly through the night. We did have to run the AC today.
1053. hahaguy
all of us here in florida are getting a nice cool down tommorow
yep and dry too
1055. Patrap
A day after opening 38 of the Bonnet Carre Spillway's bays to allow water from the Mississippi River to flow into Lake Pontchartrain in front of a crowd of hundreds, the Army Corps of Engineers opened up 46 more bays in an effort to maintain a safe water flow.

Corps of Engineers opens more bays to handle faster flow nola.com Link

Although Christopher Brantley, Spillway project manager for the corps, said the "opening went fine" because it reduced the river's water flow at the spillway from 1.28 million cubic feet per second to the safe rate of 1.25 million cfs, the weather effects from the Midwest were working to amp up the flow rate.
If both, The east pacific and Atlantic have an active season than im going to be questioning the the things forecasters have said about la nina and el nina. Then again, Were close to being neutral so i guess this would all be normal..
that looks to be only weather maker storm that i see on gems till thur fri when some precip with storms form late in the week for se texas oak se kan on the up side temps should be above normal all the way to southern grt lakes by then after the impending cool down passes
i did'nt scare u off did i
1057. CaneAddict 7:51 PM EDT on April 12, 2008
If both, The east pacific and Atlantic have an active season than im going to be questioning the the things forecasters have said about la nina and el nina. Then again, Were close to being neutral so i guess this would all be normal..


Except for the SSTs, La Nina is still very much alive; we currently have one of the strongest La Ninas ever recorded as based on the MEI, and the strongest since 1974 (it is mostly the atmospheric parameters than reflect La Nina right now; the SSTs are currently much weaker than they normally are; in some areas of the far eastern Pacific, the warmest since the 1997-1998 El Nino; lately, I have been seeing this referred to as a localized El Nino in terms of SSTs). Also, the main reason why East Pacific activity is lower during La Ninas is cooler water (the East Pacific has the densest concentration of storms in the world, so any decrease in the area of warm SSTs will have a big effect on activity; El Ninos increase the area of warm water, thus activity).
CaneAddict 7:51 PM EDT on April 12, 2008
If both, The east pacific and Atlantic have an active season than im going to be questioning the the things forecasters have said about la nina and el nina. Then again, Were close to being neutral so i guess this would all be normal..


Except for the SSTs, La Nina is still very much alive; we currently have one of the strongest La Ninas ever recorded as based on the MEI, and the strongest since 1974 (it is mostly the atmospheric parameters than reflect La Nina right now; the SSTs are currently much weaker than they normally are; in some areas of the far eastern Pacific, the warmest since the 1997-1998 El Nino; lately, I have been seeing this referred to as a localized El Nino in terms of SSTs). Also, the main reason why East Pacific activity is lower during La Ninas is cooler water (the East Pacific has the densest concentration of storms in the world, so any decrease in the area of warm SSTs will have a big effect on activity; El Ninos increase the area of warm water, thus activity).


True..what do you think of that blob at 10n 60w?
Interestingly, El Nino apparantly increases shear in the East Pacific; the warmer than normal water cancels out the effects of shear and overall doesn't actually have much of an effect in the East Pacific during typical El Ninos (they can increase activity though), so this year may be interesting if the atmosphere remains in a La Nina-like state (lower shear) with warm East Pacific SSTs:

Hobgood explained that the warm surface water caused by El Nino off the west coast of South America heats the air and gives rise to stormy weather over the Pacific as far north as Southern California. The researchers expected that El Nino would intensify hurricanes in that area, but it didn't.

"We were surprised," said Hobgood. "But then we realized that El Nino also may generate more wind shear. In the Atlantic, wind shear keeps the storms down. We think that in the Pacific the warm water and the wind shear may cancel each other out."

In fact, wind shear is the major reason that most hurricanes only reach 40 to 80 percent of their maximum possible intensity.

"But this El Nino is different," said Hobgood. "Most El Ninos start around Christmas, but this El Nino started in March of 1997. The warming was also greater than anything we've seen this century, and during the hurricane season it didn't create much wind shear to weaken storms over the Eastern North Pacific. On the average, El Ninos aren't going to have much of an effect on hurricanes, but this one has."

The continued warm surface temperatures and low winds aloft from this El Nino nurtured Hurricane Linda in September of 1997, allowing it to become the strongest storm ever observed in the East Pacific, with winds reaching 190 miles per hour.
Good evening all. Very interesting feature near Trinidad right now and I see some people have also noticed this as well. Based upon some quick satellite analysis, it does appear that we have some low-level turning occuring with the trough. Of more importance is the wind shear over the system. Looking at the CIMSS Shear Tendency Map, wind shear has been decreasing significantly over and preceding the system. Not that I expect any development, but it would not completely surprise me if any were to occur. We will have to wait for tomorrow to draw better inferences on this system and to watch for maintainance of the system.

On another note, but pertaining to the tropics, it appears that the ITCZ may have begun its northward motion as the impulses rolling off Africa continue to form further north over Africa. Does anyone else see this?

If I'm not able to comment again tonight, have a good night everyone.
Forgot to add this to my previous post. Here is what the NHC had to say regarding our interest area near Trinidad.

UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION JUST E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES CAUSING A FEW SHOWERS TO MOVE OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. A TROUGH WAS ANALYZED ON THE 18Z SFC MAP WITHIN AROUND
300 NM SE OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO ISLANDS. THE POSITION OF THIS
TROUGH WAS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NE VENEZUELA ON SUN.
1066. Patrap
WAVETRAK - Northern Atlantic Sector Low Level
Visible and Infrared Winds Link

Latest Available
Split Window
GOES-WestLink
STL, WU mail.
Now that I have taken a much closer look at the latest VIS/IR imagery, it does indeed appear that there is an evident low level circulation in association with the trough. Very interesting indeed.
cchs, as far as I can tell, the ITCZ is climatologically running behind (over land on the African continent) is northerly climb. The surface map shows that it's only at about 6n off the coast near Africa; then, as it moves west, it crosses south of the Equator and runs into the coast of Brazil in the wATL.



From today's TWD:

...The ITCZ...

From Liberia coast near 6n9w to 4n13w 3n22w...crossing the Equator near 26w...to 4s32w then into northeastern Brazil near 3s41w. Isolated moderate showers are south of 5n east of 10w...south of 7n11w 5n23w 12n55w. Scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms are south of 10n between 55w and 60w.




MEAN POSITION OF THE ITCZ According to the chart, the mean position for the first 10 days in April would have the ITCZ running near 11n (which seems high to me). It is actually running closer to 6n off the African coastline and near the equator at South America. Also, looking at the chart, in 2007 the Itcz dropped considerably below the mean during the months of June and July, and only rising above the mean in late August and early September, before dropping off considerably in the middle of that same month and towards the end of the season.

Look here on the Latest Surface Map for the Itcz location, waves, and other surface features.
MLC, I'm aware of the Surface Maps and check them daily. I'm just making an observation that it appears to be slowly climbing north off Africa, and I mean SLOWLY.
It's fluctuating a good bit, but in the past several days, it has actually moved further south in the tATL.
Check out the shortwave (night visible) imagery. There is clearly spin within the atmopshere. low-mid level spin.
1073. Patrap
MODIS Link

Near-Real-Time Level-2 Browse Link
there is definitely a mid/low level spin about 300 miles se of trinidad.this is the surface truogh which was analysed last tuesday at 10n 36w. at the moment the system is under 40knots of wind shsr and is embedded in flow of moisture moving se from the souh meican coast. climatollogy does not allow anthing to develop east of the islands so early in the season
Wow! Good evening all! Im glad to see my eyes, afterall werent tricking me and that now everyone see's the clear low to mid level spin around 60W that i mentioned hours and hours ago.
Good evening all. Very interesting feature near Trinidad right now and I see some people have also noticed this as well. Based upon some quick satellite analysis, it does appear that we have some low-level turning occuring with the trough. Of more importance is the wind shear over the system. Looking at the CIMSS Shear Tendency Map, wind shear has been decreasing significantly over and preceding the system. Not that I expect any development, but it would not completely surprise me if any were to occur. We will have to wait for tomorrow to draw better inferences on this system and to watch for maintainance of the system.

On another note, but pertaining to the tropics, it appears that the ITCZ may have begun its northward motion as the impulses rolling off Africa continue to form further north over Africa. Does anyone else see this?

If I'm not able to comment again tonight, have a good night everyone.


This area has already been around for about 12 hours or so. If it is around tomorrow then it should indeed be declared our first Invest! Thats how they declare invest's if they see persistance for more then 24 hours.
Going to have to watch this.
Actually this little interest area is already technically and invest....
The way shear is decreasing over this area, I give it a decent chance at development. It would be rather surprising to be April and have an Tropical Depression.
CCHS, You'll find it rather funny that i added a page to my site called "Blob Watch" where i speak of the blobs us blob watchers are interested in. LOL
Convection with the interest area is dieing down but arond 1AM it will probably re-gain any lost convective activity, IF it's going to try to develop. I may in fact stay up to watch it..
1082. DDR
We'll see what happens at diurnal max,if anything at all
The wind here in Trinidad is calm
atlantic basin
no classification at this time
KEEPER, No one said anything WAS going to develop or that there was any CLASSIFICATION. We are just being the "BLOB" watchers lol. This area however has an evident circulation in the mid/low levels and of course it bears watching as conditions are only improving.

Likewise it wont develop but. Its interesting nevertheless.
Cane, what do you mean its already technically an invet? Just curious because I'm not seeing that.
Evening, everybody.

1069. moonlightcowboy 8:35 PM EDT on April 12, 2008
cchs, as far as I can tell, the ITCZ is climatologically running behind (over land on the African continent) is northerly climb. The surface map shows that it's only at about 6n off the coast near Africa; then, as it moves west, it crosses south of the Equator and runs into the coast of Brazil in the wATL.


Be that as it may, I note that the ITCZ has already climbed north considerably since this time last week; between 20 and 30 W it was nearly flat against the equator. I think by the end of the month we'll see the western edge off the coast of Surinam . . .
i know
blob watch in effect possibly downgraded to poof warning later
lol
1088. Patrap
There is nothing to warrant any concern.
Our people are watching over the Basin as we Blog.


hello baha
AWeatherLover, The reason i say that is because as of now the area of interest has an evident low level circulation and enough convection....the only thing it is lacking is to be persistant and not poof before being around for 24 hours. Thats how the navy/nhc declare invests. Basically an invest is just a blob with potential. And this one may not have much potential based on climatology and shear and other factors but shear is relaxing over the area so i give it an decent chance. If this was June im sure it would of already been declared an invest. The nhc or navy dont want to declare it because they know its not going to amount to anything in the long run.
lol i like the pit pat
besides that there still on winter holidays
Based on satellite presentation you can see the disturbance really trying to wrap itself around tightly. If it is going to do anything with its SHORT future, it needs to break away from the trough.


...Discussion...
Gulf of Mexico...
a mid to upper level trough extending from the Great Lakes region SW to central Texas supports a rather strong cold front for this time of year that is moving across the Gulf of Mexico early this evening. As of 2100 UTC...the frontal boundary stretches from N Florida to the Bay of Campeche where it becomes stationary then continues inland over Mexico. A rope line delineates the leading edge of the front mainly over the eastern Gulf. Doppler radar indicates scattered showers and isolated tstms over the Florida Panhandle and se Georgia. An earlier ascat pass showed NE winds of 20 to 25 kt behind the front and over the NW quadrant of the Gulf. Winds are expected to reach minimal gale force in the SW Gulf waters on sun. A warning is already in effect.
1086. BahaHurican 8:58 PM CDT on April 12, 2008
Be that as it may, I note that the ITCZ has already climbed north considerably since this time last week; between 20 and 30 W it was nearly flat against the equator. I think by the end of the month we'll see the western edge off the coast of Surinam . . .


Yeah, Baha. It was actually higher last week, mostly above the equator. It's fluctuating. It's been in the last three or four days that it has flat-lined and dropped further south especially in the wAtl. All of the pieces will start coming together vigorously shortly, unfortunately.
1093. CaneAddict 10:14 PM AST on April 12, 2008
Based on satellite presentation you can see the disturbance really trying to wrap itself around tightly. If it is going to do anything with its SHORT future, it needs to break away from the trough.


The key to development is the amplification of the surface trof into a close low. If the system mass seperates from the surface trof that would just be decoupling and the system would die.
1097. Patrap
History and climatology have the GOM Sw corner..and the BOC as the early season Genesis points. The Atlantic aint the place for April-May,..as a rule.

Allison was a early June TS. First week of June if mem' serves me tonight.

Like MLC shows with the Map he Posted. Id put my early season Swirlie Money , on the Sw GOM... 9-outta 10 sesons
The key to development is the amplification of the surface trof into a close low. If the system mass seperates from the surface trof that would just be decoupling and the system would die.

Well yes thats true....I worded it wrong. Arent you quite impressed with something being out there already?
later...night all
1097. Patrap 10:31 PM EDT on April 12, 2008
History and climatology have the GOM Sw corner..and the BOC as the early season Genesis points. The Atlantic aint the place for April-May,..as a rule.

Allison was a early June TS. First week of June if mem' serves me tonight.
Earth is completely UNPREDICTABLE and just because climatology and history say one thing that doesent neccessarily mean that its going to repeat itself.

Well yes thats true....I worded it wrong. Arent you quite impressed with something being out there already?

Not quite with this one. If it persists into 2morrow then yeah.
Well yes thats true....I worded it wrong. Arent you quite impressed with something being out there already?

Not quite with this one. If it persists into 2morrow then yeah
.

Well as i said earlier IF it is around tomorrow, It will be an invest.
1103. Patrap
I'd check here first maybe.

GOM 60 Hour Wave Forecast Model Link
1104. Patrap
As we get close to the East Pac season , which Opens Mid-May, the Pressures tend to Fall in the Sw GOM,BoC,every year. As STL posted earlier, the East-Pac SST's are really way High.Thus the earlier probability of the SW GOM,BOC area being a Genesis origin
Night everybody.

Doubt I'll be in much tomorrow, so I hope u guys will blob-watch on my behalf . . .
Good evening everyone.

If I were to put a lat. and lon. on it as I see here, I would say at 11n and 56w. Does anyone else agree, disagree? The shear , at least to me seems kinda favorable. Not abundantly so, but by the same token, not horrifically unfavorable. Interesting, nonetheless, I think to see a in April... Personally, tomorrow, I doubt anything will happen, but if I'm wrong, I'll be the first to admit it :)
Folks, I have changed my site around a little bit. I now have a Poll Question page. Theres about 10 or more question that i want YOU to answer regarding this hurricane season. Go cast your answers in! Link
1108. hahaguy
caneaddict i just did all the polls. And i give the blob a .1%of forming. just my 2 cents all i need is 98 cents more to get a twinkie lmao
Lol hahaguy! Thanks for participating in the polls anyway im off. That blob will likely be pooofed tomorrow but if it's still there ill be VERY surprised. Night all!
2003 Had a storm in April.
1112. hahaguy
hola jfv
Mauritius Meteorological Services
--------------------------------------

The low pressure area which was evolving to the north-northeast of Mauritius has intensified into a tropical disturbance. At 0000z this morning, The Disturbance was centered around 14.3S 57.7E, that is about 650 KM to the north of Mauritius. It is moving in a south-southwest direction at about 20 KM/H

Active cloud bands associated with this tropical disturbance will influence local weather during the day.
1118. hahaguy
i do agree jfv
Looks like something trying to get started but, UL winds should prevent much from happening...
1121. hahaguy
i was thinking the same thing griffindor
all come on now evere one this is April LOL we wont start seeing any thing in tell the end of may or june


so go out and in joye your sunday


has 23 would all way say
I can't believe there is a current blob watch but stranger things have happened. What an interesting planet we live on.

I loved the comment about Florida having the title of most 'wishcasters.' LOL I think that comes from having had a huge X painted on the state from one too many recent hurricanes. Why it reminds me of the great Wind of 99... LOL or was that the great Blow, possibly the great Breeze...

The Cat
I agree with you, Taz. Seems a bit pointless to watch blobs in April.
Three interesting areas in the Northern tropics

1. A surface trof east of the Trinidad that has amplified based on 500 mb vort. The surface trof is forecast to continue eastward with little or no development due to unfavorable enviromental conditions.

2. An area of low pressure in the Eastern Pacific located near 6N-85.5W. The NOGAPS showing some development. Conditions appear favorable development until wind shear substantially increase in 60 hrs.

3. A well define tropical disturbance that is impacting the Phillipines at this moment. Most of the Globla models do develop this system into a moderate-significant tropical cyclone once it crosses the islands and enter the South China Sea.





1. A surface trof east of the Trinidad that has amplified based on 500 mb vort. The surface trof is forecast to continue westward with little or no development due to unfavorable enviromental conditions.
It seems the GFS and NGPS show something popping up with that EPAC system.
I think the invest on the Philippians will develop
the wave in the Caribbean is in to much shear and dry air
whatever is in the east pacific looks like it is going to fizzle
I still think we will have an early start to hurricane season this year...I think we will be doing some serious blob watching by May 15th. The GOM warms up fast....
test
1131. Patrap
Theres a test this morning?

But its Sunday!

No doubt an early start and maybe even and early end however this season just might end up like 2007
1133. pottery
Good Morning blobbers. I mean bloggers.
Trinidad weather now
79 f temp
89 % humid.
75 f dew pt.
8 mph wind, east
1013 press. steady
The weather here last night looked and felt like a tropical storm was brewing overhead. A most interesting last couple of days for April.
I agree that it would be most unlikely for anything to develop from this system, but boy, is it peculiar.
Keep watching this space...
1134. Patrap
GOES-12 Low Cloud Product,click to EN-large, Link

The current BoC complex at the Tail end of the CONUS front is the area to watch.
GOM 60 Hour Wave Forecast Model Link
1135. pottery
A note to those who say so-and-so cannot happen, or that so-and-so is bound to happen.
Its the weather we are discussing. Anything can happen.
Did anyone predict the current conditions that are affecting the southern Antilles, 10 days ago or so ??
I Dont think so.........
Port Saint Charles Barbados



1137. Patrap
My charter got rained out.Darn
1138. Patrap

Station 42020 - Corpus Christi, TX 50NM Southeast of Corpus Christi, TX

Latest QuikSCAT Wind Map for this Area Link
Pottery most logical thinking is that nothing could develop this time of year. Upper level winds prevent this from happening normally. But, crazy things can happen. I just don't see anything possible with the westerlies in position.
1140. pottery
True enough, Tampa.Westerlies are strong now, and have been for a month or so.
I dont see anything happening in terms of waves off africa, or really anything going on in the ITCZ, except for coastal South America and north of that either.
Its strange how far south the itcz has dropped into S America as well, dont you think ?
1141. pottery
Hard Luck, on the charter, Pat. Looks like a '' fishy " boat too.
1142. pottery
Talking about fish, a 15 yr old won 400,000 TT $ (about 60,000 us$ )last week, at the Tobago annual fishing tournament. An 890 lb. blue marlin did the trick for him. Took him 2 hrs 45 mins to boat the beast, and the skipper of the boat had to be very concerned when they were bringing the fish through the transom door, as the sea kept trying to get in as well. They were in 8 ft waves, with wind.
1140. pottery 10:17 AM EDT on April 13, 2008
Its strange how far south the itcz has dropped into S America as well, dont you think ?


That is strange but, i'm not sure how strange. I don't know if the ITCZ has been that far south this time of year before. If it has not then the unsual would be occurring.
Good morning all! I see our little blob is still TRYING to do something but it looks to be falling apart now....
1145. surfmom
Finally, a work-free Sunday!!!! Taking a run over to the beach to check for waves....looks like there will be something late today...hopefully some fun Monday/Tuesday. BBL w/report!
1146. surfmom
Finally, a work-free Sunday!!!! Taking a run over to the beach to check for waves....looks like there will be something late today...hopefully some fun Monday/Tuesday. BBL w/report!
OK, if this does not pop up with a picture, then I need someone to tell me how to upload a photo that will show up when I post a comment...I picked out a picture that I will use until I take some new pictures...
OK...Santa did not show up...now what do I do...I have him on my blog photos...Now I want him so I don't have to read "click here to add your portrait"...help
1128. all4hurricanes 9:01 AM EDT on April 13, 2008
I think the invest on the Philippians will develop
the wave in the Caribbean is in to much shear and dry air
whatever is in the east pacific looks like it is going to fizzle


What about the S. Indian one? That's looking pretty healthy, too.
1148. ajcamsmom2 10:52 AM EDT on April 13, 2008
OK...Santa did not show up...now what do I do...I have him on my blog photos...Now I want him so I don't have to read "click here to add your portrait"...help


All pictures have to be approved and sometimes that takes awhile and sometimes your pic might be declined.
ajc, did u click there?

It tells u what 2 do next. . .
Just a question:

Is anybody besides me resizing their large photos anymore?

If not, why not?

I'm curious because I'm seeing the true size of the photos (example 1119. TampaSpin 1:06 AM EDT on April 13, 2008), and I'm wondering if everybody else is.
1153. hahaguy
new blog