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Atlantic hurricane outlook for the remainder of June

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:32 PM GMT on June 12, 2009

The last half of June is usually one of the quietest portions of hurricane season. In the 14 years since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, only four tropical storms formed in the last half of June. Thus, recent history gives us a 29% chance of a last-half-of-June named storm. None of those four storms since 1995 became a hurricane, and hurricanes are quite rare in June.

Sea Surface Temperatures
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) have remained close to average over the tropical Atlantic between Africa and Central America this month (Figure 1). These are the are the coolest SST anomalies we've seen since 1994. The strength of the Azores-Bermuda high has been near average over the past two weeks, driving near-average trade winds. Stronger-than-average trade winds were observed through most of the period November 2008 - May 2009, which helped cool the tropical Atlantic substantially. Strong winds mix up colder water from the depths and cause greater evaporative cooling. The latest 2-week run of the GFS model predicts continued average trade winds over the tropical Atlantic for the remainder of June, so expect the near-average SSTs to continue over the tropical Atlantic as we head into July.

Typically, June tropical storms form over the Gulf of Mexico, Western Caribbean, and Gulf Stream waters just offshore Florida, where water temperatures are warmest. SSTs are 26 - 28°C in these regions, which is about 0.5°C above average for this time of year. June storms typically form when a cold front moves off the U.S. coast and stalls out, with the old frontal boundary serving as a focal point for development of a tropical disturbance. African tropical waves, which serve as the instigators of about 85% of all major hurricanes, are usually too far south in June to trigger tropical storm formation. SSTs are too cold in June to allow storms to develop between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands--there has only been once such development in the historical record--Ana of 1979, which coincidentally will be the name given to this year's first storm.


Figure 1. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for June 11, 2009. SSTs were near average over the tropical Atlantic. Note the large region of above average SSTs along the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America, signaling the possible start of an El Niño episode. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS

El Niño
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued an El Niño Watch last week, saying "that conditions are favorable for a transition from neutral to El Niño conditions during June - August 2009". The pattern of changes in surface winds, upper-level winds, sea surface temperatures, and deeper water heat content are all consistent with what has been observed during previous developing El Niños. We are currently experiencing neutral conditions, with ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific just 0.2°C below the threshold for El Niño. In the week since the El Niño watch was issued, ocean temperatures have remained nearly steady in the Eastern Pacific, so we are not rushing into an El Niño just yet. As I discussed in detail in an earlier post, most of our more advanced El Niño computer models are predicting a weak El Niño event for the coming Atlantic hurricane season. If this indeed occurs, it is likely that Atlantic hurricane activity will be suppressed due to the strong upper-level winds an El Niño usually brings to the tropical Atlantic, creating high wind shear that tears hurricanes apart.

Wind shear
Wind shear is usually defined as the difference in wind between 200 mb (roughly 40,000 foot altitude) and 850 mb (roughly 5,000 foot altitude). In most circumstances, wind shear above 20 knots will act to inhibit tropical storm formation. Wind shear below 12 knots is very conducive for tropical storm formation. High wind shear acts to tear a storm apart. The jet stream's band of strong high-altitude winds is the main source of wind shear in June over the Atlantic hurricane breeding grounds, since the jet is very active and located quite far south this time of year.

The jet stream over the past few weeks has been locked into a pattern where a southern branch (the subtropical jet stream) brings high wind shear over the Caribbean, and a northern branch (the polar jet stream) brings high wind shear offshore of New England. This often leaves a "hole" of low shear between the two branches off the coast of North Carolina, which is where Tropical Depression One formed at the end of May.

The jet stream is forecast (Figure 2) to maintain this two-branch pattern over the coming two weeks. This means that the waters offshore of the Carolinas are the most likely place for a tropical storm to form during this period.


Figure 2. Wind shear in m/s between 200 mb and 850 mb, as forecast by the 00Z June 12, 2009 run of the GFS model. The position of the subtropical jet stream is forecast to change little over the next two weeks, and this jet will bring high wind shear to the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico for most of the remainder of June. There will at times be a region of low shear between the polar jet (northern set of arrows on the plots) and the subtropical jet, allowing for possible tropical development off the coast of North Carolina. Wind speeds are given in m/s; multiply by two to get a rough conversion to knots. Thus, the red regions of low shear range from 0 - 16 knots.

Steering currents
The steering current pattern over the past few weeks has not changed much, and is typical for June. We have an active jet stream bringing many troughs of low pressure off the East Coast of the U.S. These troughs are frequent enough and strong enough to recurve any tropical storms or hurricanes that might penetrate north of the Caribbean Sea. Steering current patterns are predictable only about 3 - 5 days in the future, although we can make very general forecasts about the pattern as much as two weeks in advance. At present, it appears that the coming two weeks will maintain the typical June pattern, bringing many troughs of low pressure off the East Coast capable of recurving any June storms that might form. There is no telling what might happen during the peak months of August, September, and October--we might be in for a repeat of the favorable 2006 steering current pattern that recurved every storm out to sea--or the unfavorable 2008 pattern, that steered Ike and Gustav into the Gulf of Mexico.

Summary
Recent history suggests a 29% chance of a named storm occurring in the second half of June. Given that the current SST pattern and two-week wind shear forecast look fairly typical for June, I'll go with a 20% chance of a named storm forming during the last half of June. There's currently nothing out there of note, but we should start watching the region off the North Carolina coast 4 - 7 days from now.

Other stuff
Saturday, June 13 marks the last day of the Vortex2 tornado research project. The team of University of Michigan students writing our Vortex2 blog has posted some great photos and accounts of the storms they caught up to this week.

The Portlight.org charity is hard at work helping victims of the Volusia County, Florida floods.

Today's post will likely be my final "live" post until June 29, as I am headed to London, England, and Kefalonia Island, Greece for my first-ever European vacation. My fellow wunderground meteorologists will be posting to my blog if any tropical weather of note develops. I also recommend following the blog of wunderblogger Weather456, who works as a forecaster on St. Kitts Island in the Lesser Antilles. If the tropics remain quiet, I've prepared some "canned" blogs that will be posted on my blog. The topics include:

--The Atlantic Meridional Mode: implications for the 2009 hurricane season
--African dust forecast for the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season
--U.S. vulnerability to sea level rise: the Coastal Vulnerability Index (CVI)
--The six Hurricane and Typhoon Hunter flights that never came back
--Sea level rise: the forecast
--Sea level rise in the Northeast U.S. from ocean current changes

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting CybrTeddy:


Wouldn't surprise me though if it became an invest in the BOC, this situation might be similar to Bret of 2005.



Im not sure of the steering currents, but that seems possible if it can develop a MLC or LLC before it makes landfall on the Yucatan.
2502. Levi32
Quoting Stormchaser2007:



Im not sure of the steering currents, but that seems possible.


The blocking high over the GOM would keep it in the southern BOC and it would drift west slowly. The 2 reasons I don't think it will develop there is that most of the energy will stay in Central America and wind shear becomes hostile again in 48 hours.
Quoting IKE:


I have 96.6 degrees outside. Wish me luck, I'm heading to town in my air-condition-less car.



It is 97 degrees in Tallahassee with the heat index at 103 degrees.
Its 130 degree heat index here..
good lord!
2505. Levi32
GFS ensemble mean 24-hour precipitation forecasts:

Notice how concentrated moisture and heat in the eastern Pacific advects north and east with time, eventually getting into the western Caribbean and south/west/central Gulf of Mexico. Watch this area for trouble next week through the end of the month.

96 hours (4 days):



240 hours (10 days):



384 hours (16 days):

2506. IKE
Quoting Joshfsu123:


It is 97 degrees in Tallahassee with the heat index at 103 degrees.


Man it's hot out. Official station about 20-25 miles west of me....I've got 96.4 at my house...

"Crestview, Florida (Airport)
Updated: 39 min 25 sec ago
Partly Cloudy
95 °F

Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 50%
Dew Point: 74 °F
Wind: 5 mph Variable
Pressure: 29.99 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 105 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 13 out of 16
Clouds:
Few 4000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 210 ft"
2508. Levi32
Also notice in those precip maps Florida may get a little bit of relief from the heat down the road with troughs digging off the east coast.
Quoting Levi32:
GFS ensemble mean 24-hour precipitation forecasts:

Notice how concentrated moisture and heat in the eastern Pacific advects north and east with time, eventually getting into the western Caribbean and south/west/central Gulf of Mexico. Watch this area for trouble next week through the end of the month.

96 hours (4 days):



240 hours (10 days):



384 hours (16 days):



Looks pretty interesting. Thanks for posting that.
2510. IKE
Quoting hurricane2009:
I looked at all the stations in Orlando, didnt see a 130 degree heat index anywhere


That's a PWS. Looked like the dew point reading was off....high....causing the heat index to be shown as a higher amount.
2512. NEwxguy
Can you imagine what a heat index of 130 would feel like?
2513. IKE
TCHP is firing up in the GOM.........

2516. IKE
Quoting hurricane2009:
yea Ike, the GOM has no instability over it, so it is boiling right now, SSTs are on the rise there

could be bad news if we ever get something in the GOM this season.


I see the high spinning on the visible loop.

I was just checking water temps in the eastern GOM, around 85 degrees.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Here the formula if anyone cares.


C to F is: C times 9 divided by 5 plus 32 = F



Awww...thanks Doug! X9/5 32.. But isn't there an easier way?
So converting C to F would be divide by 9, multiply by five, minus 32...
GFS MJO. Looks like theres a chance at an active late June and July.

Quoting IKE:
TCHP is firing up in the GOM.........


Only gonna get worse with this "doom ridge" or w/e that mets are calling it down there. Northern gulf is going to follow suit with 95+ temps and little wind.
2520. Levi32
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
GFS MJO. Looks like theres a chance at an active late June and July.



Yup, that's the pattern I've been waiting for, although it's starting to look like it may push into early July now instead of just the end of June.

And why is it getting pushed further down the road? El Nino! It's already here and the pattern is feeding back on itself....which means the MJO is getting stuck. The downward motion doesn't want to leave the Indian Ocean and so the upward motion gets stuck over the east Pacific and west Atlantic.
TCHP JUNE 15 2008:


TCHP JUNE 15 2009:
Its starting to boil.

Sabine Pass
North TX 85.3
(06/16/2009 17:48 UTC)

Rockport, TX 87.1
(06/16/2009 17:48 UTC)

Port Aransas, TX 88.0
(06/16/2009 17:00 UTC)
Quoting Levi32:


Yup, that's the pattern I've been waiting for, although it's starting to look like it may push into early July now instead of just the end of June.

And why is it getting pushed further down the road? El Nino! It's already here and the pattern is feeding back on itself....which means the MJO is getting stuck. The downward motion doesn't want to leave the Indian Ocean and so the upward motion gets stuck over the east Pacific and west Atlantic.


It'll be interesting to see if we can squeeze out a few named storms during this pattern. Looks pretty favorable with TCHP and SSTs on the rise. Although, the GFS has unfavorable shear over the Caribbean over the next 8-15 days.
2524. Levi32
European shows a hurricane in the east Pacific in 10 days which makes lots of sense.

The NHC don't seem particularly interested in the area in W caribbean, its seems almost stationary to me, looks like it moves a bit N the pushes back West, I guess thats the blocking high to the N.
2527. Patrap
Ooofh..!

Uptown, New Orleans, Louisiana (PWS)
Updated: 18 sec ago
Scattered Clouds
92.3 F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 19%
Dew Point: 44 F
Wind: 2.2 mph
Wind Gust: 2.7 mph
Pressure: 30.03 in (Falling)

2528. Levi32
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


It'll be interesting to see if we can squeeze out a few named storms during this pattern. Looks pretty favorable with TCHP and SSTs on the rise. Although, the GFS has unfavorable shear over the Caribbean over the next 8-15 days.


Yeah the GFS starts relaxing the shear at 10 days out. The mean upper ridging will get in there eventually as the MJO continues to load up in the area. I'm still thinking we have a good shot at a June named storm. Lots of El Nino years have had fast starts to the early season so this whole pattern makes lots of sense.
TCHP in the Gulf is way more potent and organized compared to last year.

2008

2009
2530. Levi32
Quoting hurricane2009:
here is the question Levi

is that hurricane the same as our soon to be TD 1-E?


No it's not the same one...the Euro forms it in about a week. It doesn't develop 91E.
2533. Patrap
That 19% has to be a A/C blowing on it, cuz it's like in the 70's here the dewpoint.
it is so hot today...wu just updated tallahassee's friday high temperature to 101, tallahassee sucks, why is it always so hot here, it's like the hottest place in florida.
Tallahassee, FL

98.4 °F
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 45%
Dew Point: 73 °F
Wind: 3.0 mph from the WSW
Wind Gust: 8.0 mph
Pressure: 29.99 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 110 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 10 out of 16
Clouds: Scattered Clouds 6000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Quoting jeffs713:
One thing that is a common misperception about any type of climate change...

Even with warmer *overall* temps, one of the hallmarks of any type of warming is not that the temps will be 5 degrees hotter on a daily basis. It is greater instability. That means more cold waves, more heat waves, more storms, etc. Think about it. When does hurricane season start? When its warmer. When do you have more thunderstorms? When its warmer.

To get an overall temperature for a year, you are averaging together at least 365 data points. That means that a cold spell that lasts 30 days, in which overall temps are 3 degrees colder can be overwhelmed by a 100-day period where the overall temp is just one degree higher. Most people won't notice a single degree's of difference. They may notice 5 degrees.


nature is based on a daily basis, not a man made average yearly basis, that's where were wrong.


latest quikscat of W Caribbean.
2540. NRAamy
My Local Weather:

John Wayne-Orange County, California
72 °F
Scattered Clouds


;)
stormchaser,

lots of catching up to do to get to SST's like last year.
2543. NEwxguy


Fair

70 °F
(21 °C) Humidity: 42 %
Wind Speed: E 7 MPH
Barometer: 30.23" (1024.7 mb)
Dewpoint: 46 °F (8 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi


Quoting Unfriendly:


Only gonna get worse with this "doom ridge" or w/e that mets are calling it down there. Northern gulf is going to follow suit with 95+ temps and little wind.


its doom ridge because they know a power house storm is gonna tap into it later this year
2547. NEwxguy
H2009,I know,gotta have my fun now while I can.LOL
Quoting hurricane2009:
I looked at all the stations in Orlando, didnt see a 130 degree heat index anywhere

highest I saw was 112 in Apopka


I don't live in Orlando. I live in Tampa. Its getting thundery, so I assume its gone down.
Quoting largeeyes:
stormchaser,

lots of catching up to do to get to SST's like last year.


We should see TCHP and SSTs continue to rise at rather fast rate in late June and July so im not all that concerned with SSTs being too low.
2552. IKE
Quoting Levi32:


No it's not the same one...the Euro forms it in about a week. It doesn't develop 91E.


12Z ECMWF has backed on that east-PAC hurricane. It's almost as bad as the GFS at spinning up ghost storms.

Seems to show low pressure in the GOM at the end of the run...maybe a low pressure trough.
16/1745 UTC 14.0N 105.7W T1.5/1.5 92E
Looks like a depression to me.
92E is 1/2 naked. You can see the underneath center of the storm just N of the convection blob. RGB Loop shows it nicely.
high pressure over the gulf, hot air, light winds, highest sun angle of the year, equates to one hot Gulf this summer. just wait'll September
2557. IKE
Quoting Skyepony:
92E is 1/2 naked. You can see the underneath center of the storm just N of the convection blob. RGB Loop shows it nicely.


Yeah, it's getting sheared.
OK, it's about 96 degrees in Wellington, FL.

But here's a good one for you:
July 1992, Palm Springs, California. My sister-in-law's birthday weekend. 121 degrees. The dry desert air burned your nose, throat, and lungs. We'd jump into the pool for a minute, and then run back into our air conditioned rooms. And all over town, car batteries were dying from evaporation of the distilled water. It was not exactly fun, but it was memorable....
I expect Katrina and Rita like storms later this year in the Gulf, will scare the BeJesus out of us especially TX. But we'll dodge the bullet
Quoting IKE:


Yeah, it's getting sheared.


disagree- run the RGB loop and not just the latest image- looks like the LLC is lining up with the upper. Convection was FAR to the SW at the beginning of the day, now is just barely south of the CoC, and starting to rotate. At least thats what i see.
Quoting hurricane2009:


Way too early to make a prediction like that


I know but I'm going out on a limb, if I'm wrong I'm wrong
Quoting RitaEvac:


I know but I'm going out on a limb, if I'm wrong I'm wrong which will be great.
2568. IKE
Quoting Unfriendly:


disagree- run the RGB loop and not just the latest image- looks like the LLC is lining up with the upper. Convection was FAR to the SW at the beginning of the day, now is just barely south of the CoC, and starting to rotate. At least thats what i see.


Coordinates posted 14N, 105.7W. Looks like 20 knots of NNW shear.....bottom right-corner of shear map as of 1800UTC.

Quoting CybrTeddy:
Its 130 degree heat index here..
good lord!
heat wave
high pressure has become elongated east/west in the Gulf, stretching itself
Quoting RitaEvac:
I expect Katrina and Rita like storms later this year in the Gulf, will scare the BeJesus out of us especially TX. But we'll dodge the bullet


I expect the same thing...with two exceptions:

1) The bullet will not be dodged.
2) K & R names will be replaced by C & D names...again later this summer (August / September)

[May I be wrong!]
Shear map shows 5kts on the N side 20 kts on the south side. It's letting up some & the storm is reponding by getting better stacked but it's still sheared near 1/2 naked at the moment.
2573. IKE
Correction....I'm looking at that map wrong. Make that 10-20 knots of shear....
2574. FMDawg
Quoting RitaEvac:
I expect Katrina and Rita like storms later this year in the Gulf, will scare the BeJesus out of us especially TX. But we'll dodge the bullet

If not Texas, then who?
Buena Vista, Crunk Pandaville, Texas (PWS)
Updated: 13 sec ago
104.5 °FClear
Humidity: 38%
Dew Point: 74 °F
Wind: 6.0 mphfrom the NE
Wind Gust: 14.0 mph BLOW DRYER
Pressure: 28.88 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 119 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 13 out of 16
Clouds: Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 1053 ft

126

WHXX04 KWBC 161723

CHGQLM

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER



NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR



TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 92E



INITIAL TIME 12Z JUN 16



DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC

OFFICIAL FORECAST.





FORECAST STORM POSITION



HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)



0 14.3 104.8 290./ 7.0

6 14.6 105.7 290./ 9.4

12 15.2 107.2 292./15.3

18 15.2 108.3 266./11.6

24 15.4 109.3 284./ 9.2

30 15.4 109.8 267./ 5.2

36 15.8 110.3 314./ 6.1

42 15.9 110.7 288./ 3.8

48 16.0 110.9 293./ 3.2

54 16.4 111.1 338./ 4.3

60 16.8 111.2 350./ 4.0

66 17.0 111.0 45./ 1.9

72 17.2 111.0 2./ 2.5

78 17.4 110.7 62./ 4.1

84 17.6 110.4 56./ 2.9

90 17.7 110.1 78./ 3.3

96 17.9 109.6 59./ 4.8

102 17.9 109.4 95./ 2.4

108 17.8 109.2 116./ 2.4

114 17.6 108.6 106./ 5.3

120 17.4 108.1 120./ 5.7

126 16.9 107.7 139./ 6.5
2578. Patrap
316

WHXX01 KMIA 161835

CHGE77

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1835 UTC TUE JUN 16 2009



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP922009) 20090616 1800 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

090616 1800 090617 0600 090617 1800 090618 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 14.3N 105.3W 15.1N 106.9W 16.0N 108.7W 16.9N 110.3W

BAMD 14.3N 105.3W 14.9N 106.9W 15.8N 108.3W 16.9N 109.3W

BAMM 14.3N 105.3W 15.1N 107.2W 16.0N 109.0W 17.0N 110.5W

LBAR 14.3N 105.3W 15.1N 106.8W 16.1N 108.4W 17.5N 109.9W

SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 37KTS

DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 37KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

090618 1800 090619 1800 090620 1800 090621 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 17.8N 111.4W 19.2N 111.8W 20.1N 111.6W 20.2N 111.9W

BAMD 18.2N 110.0W 22.0N 109.5W 27.2N 108.6W 33.3N 106.1W

BAMM 18.0N 111.5W 20.4N 111.0W 23.1N 110.6W 25.3N 110.8W

LBAR 19.0N 111.0W 22.5N 112.2W 28.2N 111.9W 35.5N 107.2W

SHIP 41KTS 41KTS 32KTS 25KTS

DSHP 41KTS 41KTS 32KTS 26KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 14.3N LONCUR = 105.3W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 7KT

LATM12 = 14.0N LONM12 = 103.8W DIRM12 = 288DEG SPDM12 = 7KT

LATM24 = 13.5N LONM24 = 101.7W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 25KT

CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN


2581. Patrap

Station 42056
NDBC
Location: 19.874N 85.059W
Conditions as of:
Tue, 16 Jun 2009 18:50:00 UTC


Winds: SE (130°) at 17.5 kt gusting to 21.4 kt
Significant Wave Height: 5.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 6 sec
Mean Wave Direction: SE (133°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.92 in and falling
Air Temperature: 82.2 F
Dew Point: 73.9 F
619

AXPZ20 KNHC 161539

TWDEP



TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1605 UTC TUE JUN 16 2009



TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM

THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.



BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH

1530 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURE...



AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE 1009 MB IS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N104.4W...OR 290

MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG

CONVECTION IS SHEARED TO THE SW WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WELL EXPOSED

SURFACE CENTER. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 05Z INDICATED 20 TO 25 KT WINDS

ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS

SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE

NEXT DAY OR TWO.
Latest fix on 92E

SAB TEB VI 3 1515 ///// GOES12 LLCC T DT=1.5
TAFB EC VI 5 1515 ///// GOES12 CSC T DT = 1.5 BASED ON 0.2 BANDING. STILL SHEARED BUT C


SAB has a well defined circulation center (3)
TAFB has a poorly defined circulation center (5)

SAB has a LLCC - lower level cloud center
TAFB has a CSC - cloud system center
Death Valley Texas (PWS)
Updated: 13 sec ago
111.5 ?F Birds falling out of sky
Humidity: 58%
Dew Point: 81 ?F Wind: 26.0 mph from the SW
Wind Gust: 37.0 mph BLOW DRYER
Pressure: 28.88 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 158 ?F Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 16 out of 16
Clouds: Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 1053 ft
2585. IKE
Quoting RitaEvac:
Death Valley Texas (PWS)
Updated: 13 sec ago
111.5 °F Birds falling out of sky
Humidity: 38%
Dew Point: 81 °F Wind: 26.0 mph from the SW
Wind Gust: 37.0 mph BLOW DRYERPressure: 28.88 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 158 °F Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 16 out of 16
Clouds: Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 1053 ft


Pressure 28.88? WTH?
2586. NEwxguy
for all you people in Texas,sorry!

ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH BEFORE SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE
AMPLIFYING EAST COAST TROUGH...BUT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE DROUGHT-STRICKEN AREAS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS DAYS
6/7...WHERE DEEP LEVELS OF DRY SOIL AND REDUCED GREEN VEGETATION
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIALLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES THAN CURRENT
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES.
Quoting NEwxguy:
for all you people in Texas,sorry!

ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH BEFORE SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE
AMPLIFYING EAST COAST TROUGH...BUT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE DROUGHT-STRICKEN AREAS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS DAYS
6/7...WHERE DEEP LEVELS OF DRY SOIL AND REDUCED GREEN VEGETATION
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIALLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES THAN CURRENT
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES.


Its already beginning!!!!! lol

Death Valley Texas (PWS)
Updated: 13 sec ago
111.5 ?F Birds falling out of sky
Humidity: 58%
Dew Point: 81 ?F
Wind: 26.0 mph from the SW
Wind Gust: 37.0 mph BLOW DRYER
Pressure: 28.88 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 158 ?F Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 16 out of 16
Clouds: Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 1053 ft

2589. Levi32
92E is getting sheared but guess what? That gives us the ability to see without a doubt that it has a closed rotary circulation....and there are organized thunderstorms and banding features near and south of the LLC. The NHC should have upgraded this.
heres latest temp at 18 z today
2592. Levi32
28.88 inches of Mercury is 978mb.
2593. IKE
Quoting hurricane2009:
wait not its not

there is no such pressure as 28.88 millibars


?
Quoting hurricane2009:
looks to me like the 20 knots of shear are on the southern side of the system, not the northern side



Click on the -3hrs a few times. 6 hrs ago there was near 20kts or higher over the whole thing. There also was a weak anticyclone that would have vented it nicely headed toward it from the north, that has now fallen apart.
Eh... I'd call it at 7-15 kts at the LLCoC, but 20 knots under the main convection... tho I am seeing more banding on the RGB last frame in the LLC. Looks to be organizing more and more to me.
Heat low out there in South/Central TX
Quoting Levi32:
92E is getting sheared but guess what? That gives us the ability to see without a doubt that it has a closed rotary circulation....and there are organized thunderstorms and banding features near and south of the LLC. The NHC should have upgraded this.


Same with 90L in the Atlantic but did they name it? no.
Here's an important update concerning the XtremeHurricanes.com live web cam / weather station (RHWS)!

This past weekend, my daughter and I tested the VerizonWireless broadband card connectivity. Since we live out in the boonies, VerizonWireless will drop out as we travel from region to region.

During the test of the computer that will drive the RHWS, the connectivity dropped out as expected when we entered a known "dead zone." I sorta freaked out when the connectivity did not automatically reengage once a service area was reacquired.

This is my worst nightmare when it comes to RHWS operations. If VerizonWireless service experiences a brief bump in operations during a hurricane, the computer will not automatically reconnect, leaving PensacolaDoug no way to reestablish the live web cam and weather system to the internet.

This test proved that you would see a black screen on the live webcam and "NA" on the WU RapidFire Weather Sticker should VerizonWireless go down, if only briefly. ACK!!!

Now for the good news...

VerizonWireless has a new toy for sale! :)

It is called the MiFi 2200. It's a credit card sized black box that acts as a modem and a router!

The MiFi 2200 acts in much the same way as a cell phone, in that it constantly searches for a signal. Once it acquires a signal, the computer(s) assigned to it automatically connect to it!

There...problem solved! The only connectivity issue I'll have is if VerizonWireless totally shuts down in a hurricane and does not come back up...which in my experience in hurricanes while using VerizonWireless has never happened.

Bottom line: If you see a black screen on the live webcam and no weather data from the RHWS during deployment of a landfalling hurricane, then it is a really really bad hurricane and you should all look forward to my YouTube video experience to see how bad it really turned out to be!
90L had convection near the center, winds of 35-40 mph., and a warm core closed circulation. It should have been classified, but they didn't bother with it.
2606. IKE
Looks like the heat is going to be shifting west and the precip returns to the SE USA......in the 6-10 day extended......




Quoting hurricane2009:
NHC has been conservative this year


Conservative? There has not been much to be even conservative about this year.
Big downpour here in Tampa just alittle while ago.
Quoting IKE:
Looks like the heat is going to be shifting west and the precip returns to the SE USA......in the 6-10 day extended......






Does B stand for Bone Dry and N for Nuttin
2612. IKE
Quoting RitaEvac:


Does B stand for Bone Dry and N for Nuttin


LOL....B is Below normal. N is Normal. You probably know that though.
I'm in the boat that 90L should have been named, everything indicated 90L was ready for upgrade. I don't know why they didn't name it.


latest temp surface
2616. IKE
PWS about 6 miles from me.....

"WZEP AM 1460 DeFuniak Springs, FL, DeFuniak Springs, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 0 sec ago
Clear
96.8 °F

Clear
Humidity: 51%
Dew Point: 76 °F
Wind: 0.0 mph
Wind Gust: 5.0 mph
Pressure: 29.91 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 110 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 11 out of 16
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 174 ft"
Quoting IKE:
PWS about 6 miles from me.....

"WZEP AM 1460 DeFuniak Springs, FL, DeFuniak Springs, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 0 sec ago
Clear
96.8 F

Clear
Humidity: 51%
Dew Point: 76 F
Wind: 0.0 mph
Wind Gust: 5.0 mph
Pressure: 29.91 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 110 F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 11 out of 16
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 174 ft"


WZEP, Led Zepplin AM Ike??
Quoting hurricane2009:
NHC has been conservative this year

well, i'm glad for that! i hope that trend continues as i'm tired of the rush to name a system driving up insurance rates!
2619. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:


WZEP, Led Zepplin AM Ike??


LOL...I wish....local am radio station. Play country and oldies. Not rock though. No Zeppelin.
2620. gator23
Quoting reedzone:


Same with 90L in the Atlantic but did they name it? no.


Upgrade it to what? The winds are not yet 35mph. Just because something looks like a cyclone doesnt mean it gets a name or upgraded it has have the winds.
2621. gator23
Quoting hurricane2009:
yup reed and I feel TD 1 was a TS for at least 6-12 hours


No, no winds...
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I'm in the boat that 90L should have been named, everything indicated 90L was ready for upgrade. I don't know why they didn't name it.


NHC is apparently being more conservative now. I'm sure they've received some criticism for naming systems with short lifespans.
2623. Levi32
Quoting gator23:


Upgrade it to what? The winds are not yet 35mph. Just because something looks like a cyclone doesnt mean it gets a name or upgraded it has have the winds.


A TD can technically have any wind speed below 34 knots. In 91E's case it meets all the criteria for a TD if not a TS. We don't have a good QuikSCAT pass on it yet to see.
2625. IKE
Seabreeze front just south of me....

Quoting Levi32:


A TD can technically have any wind speed below 34 knots. In 91E's case it meets all the criteria for a TD if not a TS. We don't have a good QuikSCAT pass on it yet to see.


It looks decently organized. Doesn't look likes its center is tucked very far into that convection though...probably under some moderate shear.
2627. Levi32
Quoting extreme236:


It looks decently organized. Doesn't look likes its center is tucked very far into that convection though...probably under some moderate shear.


It is under northerly shear....but that doesn't mean it can't be named. It has organized convection and banding near and south of the center....and the fact that the LLC is exposed gives us no doubt that there is a closed rotary circulation. The LLC never has to be tucked in to name it.
Quoting CycloneOz:
Here's an important update concerning the XtremeHurricanes.com live web cam / weather station (RHWS)!

This past weekend, my daughter and I tested the VerizonWireless broadband card connectivity. Since we live out in the boonies, VerizonWireless will drop out as we travel from region to region.

During the test of the computer that will drive the RHWS, the connectivity dropped out as expected when we entered a known "dead zone." I sorta freaked out when the connectivity did not automatically reengage once a service area was reacquired.

This is my worst nightmare when it comes to RHWS operations. If VerizonWireless service experiences a brief bump in operations during a hurricane, the computer will not automatically reconnect, leaving PensacolaDoug no way to reestablish the live web cam and weather system to the internet.

This test proved that you would see a black screen on the live webcam and "NA" on the WU RapidFire Weather Sticker should VerizonWireless go down, if only briefly. ACK!!!

Now for the good news...

VerizonWireless has a new toy for sale! :)

It is called the MiFi 2200. It's a credit card sized black box that acts as a modem and a router!

The MiFi 2200 acts in much the same way as a cell phone, in that it constantly searches for a signal. Once it acquires a signal, the computer(s) assigned to it automatically connect to it!

There...problem solved! The only connectivity issue I'll have is if VerizonWireless totally shuts down in a hurricane and does not come back up...which in my experience in hurricanes while using VerizonWireless has never happened.

Bottom line: If you see a black screen on the live webcam and no weather data from the RHWS during deployment of a landfalling hurricane, then it is a really really bad hurricane and you should all look forward to my YouTube video experience to see how bad it really turned out to be!


Have you considered the monthly charges you will incur streaming video over a broadband card? I have one of the Verizon plans and they are limited to 5 gigs a month of transfer.. AFTER that they will charge you 25 cents a MEG! A 100 megs is 25.00 and there is no telling how much you will use.

I ended up getting another card to increase our plan usage to 10 gigs, it was a heck of a lot cheaper that going over the 5 gig limit...

Verizon will not sell you more bandwidth for your card.. IF you think you are on one of the "unlimited" plans you had better read the TOS really closely as they reserved the right to cut you off for excessive use and they think excessive is anything over 5 gigs...

If you try to go with two cards you can buy a router that lets you plug the cards directly into it and then load balances over the two cards... If you need more information just PM me :)


Just worrying about your bank account :)
Quoting gator23:


No, no winds...


Best track indicated TS winds of 40 MPH.
Quoting IKE:
PWS about 6 miles from me.....

"WZEP AM 1460 DeFuniak Springs, FL, DeFuniak Springs, Florida (PWS)


DeFuniak Springs! When I was a teenager, I went to Camp Euchee every year...about this time of year!

Home of the Euchee Monster!

[My last year at the camp, I was given the honor of being cast as the Euchee Monster by my Boy Scout troop. My costume, a white pillow-case with eye-holes and a loin cloth. The black Boy Scout troop that saw me haunting the woods mistook me for a KKK member because the pillow-case was orientated on my head where it had a point at the top.

I barely escaped them. I tapped the hoods of the cars and trucks in the main parking lot and found a truck with a cold hood. I ducked under that truck and hugged the muffer 3 feet off the ground.]
2632. gator23
The NHC has a whole bunch of equipment to monitor storms. I drive by there every day on my way to work. I just find it hard to believe that they would just not upgrade a storm. This is science and there is a process. If they did upgrade it people would be complaining that they over did it.
Quoting Levi32:


It is under northerly shear....but that doesn't mean it can't be named. It has organized convection and banding near and south of the center....and the fact that the LLC is exposed gives us no doubt that there is a closed rotary circulation. The LLC never has to be tucked in to name it.


I know...just mentioning what I had noticed throughout the day.
2636. Levi32
Quoting extreme236:


I know...just mentioning what I had noticed throughout the day.


Yeah I know sorry I get a little passionate about the NHC's inconsistencies and quirks lol.
H2009, I edited it.
Quoting swatkins:


Have you considered the monthly charges you will incur streaming video over a broadband card?


Indeed I have! That was the purpose of our stream test in late May of this year.

During that test, I discovered that 12-hours of streaming video and weather data generates 1.5 gig of VerizonWireless usage.

Thank you for worrying about my bank account! Imagine how much more I worry about it! :)
2641. IKE
Quoting CycloneOz:


DeFuniak Springs! When I was a teenager, I went to Camp Euchee every year...about this time of year!

Home of the Euchee Monster!

[My last year at the camp, I was given the honor of being cast as the Euchee Monster by my Boy Scout troop. My costume, a white pillow-case with eye-holes and a loin cloth. The black Boy Scout troop that saw me haunting the woods mistook me for a KKK member because the pillow-case was orientated on my head where it had a point at the top.

I barely escaped them. I tapped the hoods of the cars and trucks in the main parking lot and found a truck with a cold hood. I ducked under that truck and hugged the muffer 3 feet off the ground.]



I live just a few miles from there.
2642. gator23
Quoting hurricane2009:
doesnt really matter, they will likely upgrade it in post-season analysis making the storm numbers the same as if it were named right then, it just wont have a name

And if they dont?
Quoting gator23:


Upgrade it to what? The winds are not yet 35mph. Just because something looks like a cyclone doesnt mean it gets a name or upgraded it has have the winds.


I had a friend who drove through Mobile, Alabama and said winds were blowing 35-40 mph with heavy rain and beach erosion.. that's enough for at least a TD upgrade. Even METS believe it was a storm, if the NHC is smart, they will upgrade it in Post Analysis.
2644. gator23
The fact is they are responsible for upgrading. If they didnt of dont, then it wasnt.
Quoting CycloneOz:


Indeed I have! That was the purpose of our stream test in late May of this year.

During that test, I discovered that 12-hours of streaming video and weather data generates 1.5 gig of VerizonWireless usage.

Thank you for worrying about my bank account! Imagine how much more I worry about it! :)


I even took my weatherstation link here off of 4 second updates and moved it to 4 minute updates to cut down on the charges :)
Current Tallahassee Weather:
98 °F
Heat Index: 104 °F

Time to sweat........
Quoting Levi32:


Yeah I know sorry I get a little passionate about the NHC's inconsistencies and quirks lol.


lol its cool...I do wish they would be a bit more consistent and ignore public opinions.
Quoting gator23:
The fact is they are responsible for upgrading. If they didnt of dont, then it wasnt.


Well to tell you the truth, ever since Max left, they've been a bit disorganized. My friend knows the qualifications for a TS, I believe him when he told me that he drove through a tropical Storm when 90L hit. It was warm core, winds were very close to the center, in fact winds were 10-20 mph just a few miles away form the center, which is what your gathering at. Where the burst of convection was, the winds were the highest at 35-40 mph.
Quoting gator23:
The fact is they are responsible for upgrading. If they didnt of dont, then it wasnt.


Ever heard of post analysis?
2650. gator23
Quoting extreme236:


Ever heard of post analysis?


Yes i said if they "didnt or DONT it wasnt"
2651. Levi32
You've just gotta love this. Look at the MJO last 40 days....you can see that whenever it gets to phase 8 it gets stuck and can't go further. Right now you can see it completely hitting a wall. This is due to the pattern feedback of the El Nino that I talked about yesterday.

You have to consider what objective data NHC has at the time of "making the call". If post year analysis shows data that supports a TD or TC they will upgrade, however NHC may not have that data at the time. If you look at the QuikScat ambiguity for 92E from this morning it indicates multiple low level centers, so NHC may just be waiting for another pass, that shows a "well-defined center".
We can agree or disagree, I agree that 90L was fully tropical at landfall with winds of 35-40 mph. This popular invest will be argued for quite some time, unless they upgrade it in post analysis.
Quoting hurricane2009:
yea extreme they have been a bit inconsistent

Them being inconsistent can lead to issues down the road possibly, what if one of these "oh it will be weak so why name it storms" intensifies quickly like with Humberto in 2007. Then we could see a real firestorm

Consistencey is the key, its your job at the NHC to monitor tropical weather and a system should be upgraded if it fits the criteria regardless of public opinion. 90L clearly fit the criteria.


That's the perfect example too. A storm with a short lifespan close to landfall...and look what it turned into.
85 in the shade. partly sunny e cent. florida
Quoting swatkins:


I even took my weatherstation link here off of 4 second updates and moved it to 4 minute updates to cut down on the charges :)


I completely understand.

Right now, I can only stream video during daylight hours...so PensacolaDoug has instructions to turn off the stream at nightfall should a hurricane hit then.

It's also been my experience that hurricanes rarely last over a specific area for more than 12-hours. One exception was Hurricane Ivan, which was still a hurricane in Pensacola well into the afternoon of the next day. Polar to that experience was Hurricane Dennis, which barely lasted 20 minutes at my location.

Ideally, we would have an opportunity to deploy in a storm similar to Hurricane Dolly. This storm began to crank up around 9:00 AM and was done with by 5:00 PM

The worst case scenario would be a landfalling hurricane similar to Hurricane Ike. It started cranking up around 11:00 PM and was done with landfall by dawn. [Yawn...]

2624. hurricane2009

my only point was that they need to mindful with naming systems as this data goes into calculating insurance rates, not that this particular one would affect things either way. post-analysis is part of the problem as well as the propensity to give a lot of attention to fish storms that would have, in the past without today's technology, gone unnoticed by everyone except seafarers. that was all...
Seabreeze on the march! Dewpoint feels like it is near 80. Yuck!

Maybe, just maybe, the seabreeze front will trigger some showers for us.



Quoting CycloneOz:


I completely understand.

Right now, I can only stream video during daylight hours...so PensacolaDoug has instructions to turn off the stream at nightfall should a hurricane hit then.

It's also been my experience that hurricanes rarely last over a specific area for more than 12-hours. One exception was Hurricane Ivan, which was still a hurricane in Pensacola well into the afternoon of the next day. Polar to that experience was Hurricane Dennis, which barely lasted 20 minutes at my location.

Ideally, we would have an opportunity to deploy in a storm similar to Hurricane Dolly. This storm began to crank up around 9:00 AM and was done with by 5:00 PM

The worst case scenario would be a landfalling hurricane similar to Hurricane Ike. It started cranking up around 11:00 PM and was done with landfall by dawn. [Yawn...]



I am a Paramedic in the Houston area.. When Rita was coming towards us in 2005 there was a great exodus of the area.. All of our cell phones were knocked out the day before, and stayed that way, because everyone and their dog was trying to use the cell phones and the towers and system could not handle the load..

Durring IKE it was just as bad even though people did not leave in the same numbers.

Just wondering if that will also affect your plans to use the system during a hurricane..
Quoting pearlandaggie:
2624. hurricane2009

my only point was that they need to mindful with naming systems as this data goes into calculating insurance rates, not that this particular one would affect things either way. post-analysis is part of the problem as well as the propensity to give a lot of attention to fish storms that would have, in the past without today's technology, gone unnoticed by everyone except seafarers. that was all...


The only thing they should be mindful of is criterion, not insurance rates.
Current: Lake Worth, Texas
Temperature: 99.0 F
Dew Point: 71.2 F
Humidity: 41%
Wind Speed: 4.3mph
Wind Gust: 12.8mph
Wind: SW
Pressure: 29.82in
Precipitation: 0.00in


Feels like 108 F
"The large extratropical storm (90L) that has been pounding Florida, the Bahamas, and Haiti this week with heavy rain and high surf has moved ashore over Mississippi. Last night and this morning, the storm put on an impressive burst of heavy thunderstorm activity and came close to becoming a subtropical or tropical depression. Winds at the Fort Morgan, AL station were 44 mph, gusting to 52 mph, and winds at Dauphin Island, Alabama coastal station were sustained at 39 mph, gusting to 48 mph at between 8am and 10am EDT this morning. While these winds were in excess of the 39 mph threshold of tropical storm force, both measurements were taken at elevations higher than the international wind measurement standard of ten meters, so the top measured winds of 90L were actually slightly less than tropical storm force. Had 90L spent another six hours over water, it very likely would have been declared a tropical/subtropical depression/storm."
- Dr. Masters

Yes, he said below TS strength, but like I said 35-40 mph. Most likely was a TD at landfall.
Quoting hurricane2009:
despite all that pearl, a TD or a TS is such regardless of where it is or the circumstances and should be upgraded regardless of public opinion

It seems the NHC is letting public opinion effect how they name systems and they shouldnt.


They have mortgages too and they dont want their insurance rates going up either so their screwing over the insurance co. by not naming it
Dewpoint now up to a crisp 79. oooog.
Yep 90L was a TS Ana no doubt about it in that pic
Lets get ready for the B storm
Check this out...

Media would of been all over it had they named it before the season, so they played the game and fooled the stupid media circus, which is exactly what they are.
Now the radar..

2674. NEwxguy
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Dewpoint now up to a crisp 79. oooog.


Thats just not right,now thats pure tropical air.
Quoting swatkins:


All of our cell phones were knocked out the day before, and stayed that way, because everyone and their dog was trying to use the cell phones and the towers and system could not handle the load..

During Ike it was just as bad even though people did not leave in the same numbers.


I was in Hurricane Ike. I had a VerizonWireless cell phone that connected to my computer and acted as a modem when I needed it [the RHWS did not exist...it does now!]

Here is an excerpt from Dr. Masters Blog from 9:11 AM on September 13, 2008:
**************************
A night on Galveston Island

Wunderground member CycloneBoz rode out Ike in a parking garage in Galveston. Here's his report from this morning:

This is CycloneBoz, live from the southern eyewall of Hurricane Ike.

What a storm! My wind gauge read 110 mph

In the car, I'm being bucked like riding a bronco! Easily, winds now still over 100 mph!

I'm on the 2nd floor of the Hotel Galvez parking garage. I have shot some incredible video. I'm chomping at the bit to edit it...and I think I'm going to have time to do that here...because no one is going to get off this island anytime soon.

The surge was an east to west event at midnight. Now, the surge is a west to east event. Flooding everywhere. Multiple fires! There was even a fire out at sea on one of the piers in front of the garage during the first part of the storm.

Massive destruction. Surprisingly, though, a lot of the houses are keeping their roofs! But the people inside are sure worried!

I yelled across the street during the incredible eye event to a lady whose first floor was flooded. Everyone there was okay, but I could tell she was crying. She was scared to death.

As my car rocks wildly as I sit beneath tons of concrete, I have to admit......I'm a bit on edge myself.
********************

I wrote that approximately at 2:00 AM CDT the night of the storm. VerizonWireless was my connectivity to WU that night. I also talked often to my wife, my Mom...and PensacolaDoug that evening. VerizonWireless was up the entire time, and never went down. I left Galveston Island about 8:00 AM on the 13th and communicated with lots of people, including TV networks the entire time I was on the road...through Houston and beyond.

You gotta give VerizonWireless some props for their network's performance that day. That's why I'm using them.

If they fail, we'll try to figure out something under the pressure of time slipping away.
2677. cg2916
Let's stop worrying about 90L being Ana. We have an INVEST in the PACIFIC that ISN'T GOING TO HIT LAND!!!! That's what we need to be worrying about!
Well they kept saying 90L was not gonna transition into a tropical system, I think they just didn't want to be proved wrong, so they let it be. Not in the matter of game, they just want to be right.

BTW that is just my personal opinion lol
Quoting cg2916:
Let's stop worrying about 90L being Ana. We have an INVEST in the PACIFIC that ISN'T GOING TO HIT LAND!!!! That's what we need to be worrying about!


actually... guidance suggests a landfall in mexico, north and slightly west of its loc. Whether it'll be a TD, TS, or cane is up in the air, tho.
NEwxguy, if the dewpoint hits 80 I definitely won't be biking after work!
Quoting reedzone:
Well they kept saying 90L was not gonna transition into a tropical system, I think they just didn't want to be proved wrong, so they let it be. Not in the matter of game, they just want to be right.

BTW that is just my personal opinion lol


You guys should start your own hurricane center and rival the NHC and at the end of the year the general population can vote and see which one was better!
I guess it is obvious why the NHC doesn't have a blog or forum on their site
if there reading this one i bet they are laughing right now
2686. NEwxguy
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
NEwxguy, if the dewpoint hits 80 I definitely won't be biking after work!


LOL,you go biking at dewpoint=79,your going to be leaving a trail of water behind you.
The low center of 92E is exposed in the northern part of the disturbance.

img
2689. 0741
90l could be upgrade to td or ts during offseason study that nhc do for now their not could be done so not make it into issue those guys/lady at nhc are pro and going school for years work at nhc long time
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
if there reading this one i bet they are laughing right now



or planning their next conspiracy
Well last time I tried that, I drank 3 pints of water before biking 14 miles, drank another pint of water after, and didn't have to use restroom until morning.
Yep a conspiracy where they put in canned sat pics, canned buoy readings, and wait for an 860 mb hurricane to wipe out New York City. "Oh my goodness what happpened?" Sheesh.
2693. 0741
Quoting palmbaywhoo:


You guys should start your own hurricane center and rival the NHC and at the end of the year the general population can vote and see which one was better!
their only one nhc and only one none of you can do what nhc can do save life
My guess is ,that the NHC has a criteria they absolutely adhere to when it comes to declaring Invest/TDs/TSs, of course this is my assumption only.
Dang the dewpoint fell to 78. Looks like I'm gonna have to go bike after all.
2696. gator23
Quoting hurricane2009:
play the game lol

that is what this world is coming to now, NHC doesnt name a storm to fool the media

That is really pathetic lol

They are not that organized to be that sinister. Same with the insurance argument. They live in Florida if anything they would be cautious about updating storms comign here.
Buena Vista, Crunk Pandaville, Texas (PWS)
Updated: 4 min 40 sec ago
107.6 °F
Clear
Humidity: 35%
Dew Point: 74 °F
Wind: 9.0 mph from the SSE
Wind Gust: 13.0 mph
Pressure: 28.81 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 122 °F Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 10 out of 16
Clouds: Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 1053 ft

2699. gator23
Forget the NHC them and their PHD's,years of experience and thousands of thesis papers clearly dont know what they're talking about. When the winds pick up this season I am casting my vote with these bloggers to issue storm warnings and precise, accurate storm tracks and information.
Quoting hurricane2009:
I agree gator I am saying them not naming the system to fool the media makes no sense


Actually makes perfect sense, the media is the cause of all world problems, they stir up stuff that doesnt need to be. The less the world knew there wouldn't be all the problems today. So not classfying the 90L kept the hype down about the hurricane season. Media is only good to scare people and believe everything they say. Their idiots and I'm anti-media.
agreed stormpetrol, well put, they may reasess this after the year, but as for now it is useless to continue pushing that it was a storm/depression or whatever
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which now also includes Weather456, daily updates


AOI #1

AOI #2
Quoting RitaEvac:


Actually makes perfect sense, the media is the cause of all world problems, they stir up stuff that doesnt need to be. The less the world knew there wouldn't be all the problems today. So not classfying the 90L kept the hype down about the hurricane season. Media is only good to scare people and believe everything they say. Their idiots and I'm anti-media.


If you hadn't pointed that out.. I doubt we would have been able to guess..
2705. gator23
Quoting RitaEvac:


Actually makes perfect sense, the media is the cause of all world problems, they stir up stuff that doesnt need to be. The less the world knew there wouldn't be all the problems today. So not classfying the 90L kept the hype down about the hurricane season. Media is only good to scare people and believe everything they say. Their idiots and I'm anti-media.


Got it so next time a Cat 5 is coming to your area...
Example is the Houston media stations, when theres a depression in the Carribbean that MAY come into the Gulf....guess what.... thats the top breaking news story! something that not even remotely needs to be discussed, no wonder it was so nice living in the old days, they didnt care and didnt need to worry about everything. If Wall Street didnt get publicized people would be forking money into it like crazy, but media scaring the hell outta everyone
The Media is an essential part of the modern world you just have to find the ones that are reliable and fits your outlook on the world. The media is no longer one size fits all.
Kinda sad when a person with not as much knowledge as them belittles others basically as mischievous children on vacation, I take back my acknowledgement of such person/s as positive contributors to this blog, on the other hand they are basically full of themselves with a SUPER EGO that will probably amount to nothing more, who the cap fit let them wear it!!!
2711. gator23
Quoting RitaEvac:
Example is the Houston media stations, when theres a depression in the Carribbean that MAY come into the Gulf....guess what.... thats the top breaking news story! something that not even remotely needs to be discussed, no wonder it was so nice living in the old days, they didnt care and didnt need to worry about everything. If Wall Street didnt get publicized people would be forking money into it like crazy, but media scaring the hell outta everyone


1. I work in Media
2. I studied media at length
3. I promise you we dont care to create a conspiracy.

That said, There are no old dayss Media has been around since the Roman times.
But thats ok you dont need media. So the next time a terrorist attack happens you wont know. Or after a hurricane if your water is unsafe to drink you wont know. Or if your driving to work and the expressway is jammed you wont know...
Quoting RitaEvac:
Example is the Houston media stations, when theres a depression in the Carribbean that MAY come into the Gulf....guess what.... thats the top breaking news story! something that not even remotely needs to be discussed, no wonder it was so nice living in the old days, they didnt care and didnt need to worry about everything. If Wall Street didnt get publicized people would be forking money into it like crazy, but media scaring the hell outta everyone


lets se how you theory holds water.

No News:

1900: Known as "the Galveston Hurricane," the deadliest hurricane disaster in U.S. history occurred on September 8. More than 8,000 people died when hurricane storm tides (the surge plus the astronomical tide) of 8-15 feet inundated the entire island city of Galveston, Texas. More than half of all the homes and buildings were destroyed. Property damage is estimated at $700 million in 1990 dollars.

With News:

Ike was blamed for at least 195 deaths. Of these, 74 were in Haiti, which was already trying to recover from the impact of three storms earlier that year: Fay, Gustav, and Hanna. In the United States, 112 people were killed, and 34 are still missing.[5] Damages from Ike in US coastal and inland areas are estimated at $24 billion (2008 USD), with additional damage of $7.3 billion in Cuba, $200 million in the Bahamas, and $500 million in the Turks and Caicos, amounting to a total of $32 billion in damages. Ike was the third costliest U.S. hurricane of all time, behind Hurricane Andrew of 1992 and Hurricane Katrina of 2005.[5]


Your theory is wrong.
2713. gator23
Quoting RitaEvac:
There's always cat 5s heading for my area, they just weaken before landfall, or go the friggin other way, no need for hype by the media.

We in Miami had a similar attitude then oops Andrew... Im done dealing with a troll.
Quoting RitaEvac:
There's always cat 5s heading for my area, they just weaken before landfall, or go the friggin other way, no need for hype by the media.


Yes, keeping people uninformed about any possible threat is definatly the way to go. Cause its not always gonna be that way. You've just gotten lucky.
Quoting gator23:


1. I work in Media
2. I studied media at length
3. I promise you we dont care to create a conspiracy.

That said, There are no old dayss Media has been around since the Roman times.
But thats ok you dont need media. So the next time a terrorist attack happens you wont know. Or after a hurricane if your water is unsafe to drink you wont know. Or if your driving to work and the expressway is jammed you wont know...


lol local news is good, not global
Quoting RitaEvac:


lol local news is good, not global


I give up... your making a stick look pretty smart.
Hey Good Afternoon

Computer severly crash today and lost all my files but I had some back-up. I also lost A tropical cyclone report on 90L, TD 1 and 92L I was working on. I will still provide my updates though.

Hey Jp, welcome back, hows it going?
2721. gator23
Quoting RitaEvac:


lol local news is good, not global


Ahh I see. Iraq is beautiful this time of year and since there is no World news I guess is a great place for me to go visit right now.
We all live and die Gator, no need to be afraid.
2726. gator23
Quoting RitaEvac:
We all live and die Gator, no need to be afraid.


Pretty bold for someone whos Avatar reads "RitaEvac"
Quoting hurricane2009:
Its going 456

sorry to hear about your crash, must be the medias' fault lmao


lol power lost and my ups was not working at the time.
Quoting gator23:


Pretty bold for someone whos Avatar reads "RitaEvac"


I found that if you click on those little blue letters.. you know the ones right beside the word "quote" its nick doesn't show up so much :)
Quoting hurricane2009:


What are you a prophet now?

lol


LMAO
Please take a look at this loop.

At 15:15 UT time a bright flash starts just south of the ABC islands and moves very fast to the west and up the western coast of Mexico.. As the frames move through the loop you can see it become very bright then start to fade away.

What the heck is it and how do you save a copy of the loop?
Quoting gator23:


Pretty bold for someone whos Avatar reads "RitaEvac"


I listened to the media then, and now its edged into my memory for life
Quoting RitaEvac:


I listened to the media then, and now its edged into my memory for life


I'd rather be safe than sorry. Maybe you don't feel that way.
Well it looks like fast is relative. The flash took from 15:45 to 21:45 to move over that area :)
Quoting swatkins:
Please take a look at this loop.

At 15:15 UT time a bright flash starts just south of the ABC islands and moves very fast to the west and up the western coast of Mexico.. As the frames move through the loop you can see it become very bright then start to fade away.

What the heck is it and how do you save a copy of the loop?


We call that the "Sun"
Quoting hurricane2009:


That is the sun glint, which is the sun reflecting off the satellite and it gets captured in the pic.


its the sun reflecting off the ocean of the earth moving west which is the world turning making it move
Quoting swatkins:
Well it looks like fast is relative. The flash took from 15:45 to 21:45 to move over that area :)


Ive seen it hundreds of times. Its definitely the sun.
Lets get Gator to do a report on this, it might be some new phenomenon!
New blog
So like maybe we should turn this loop over to the National Enquire, as positive proof ET is visiting us, then use the money for a big party :)
I live on the west coast of Mexico, in Mazatlan.
There is always a lot of information on Atlantic hurricanes, but not much on eastern Pacific storms. This year we have had a tropical storm and the first hurricane [Andres] has formed south of Puerta Vallarta. The TS arrived 10 hours ahead of the Wonderweather pridictions, with gusts of 75 MPH.
I understand that these Pacific storms don't impact the US significantly, but a little more info on our weather would be appreciated. Is there a prediction of hurricanes for the Pacific for the coming season?