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Atlantic hurricane outlook for the last half of July

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:41 PM GMT on July 16, 2007

Atlantic tropical cyclone activity is usually low during the last half of July. Since the current active hurricane period began in 1995, eight of 12 years have had one or two named storms form during the last half of July. Two named storms formed in both 1995 and 2005. In 2005, we were already up to "E" in the alphabet at this point, so 2007 is certainly not going to be a repeat of 2005, thank goodness! As seen in Figure 1, most of the late July activity occurs in the Gulf of Mexico, but there are a few long-track "Cape Verdes" hurricanes beginning to occur. These are spawned by tropical waves that come off the coast of Africa. African tropical waves serve as the instigators of about 85% of all major hurricanes.


Figure 1. Tracks of all tropical storms and hurricanes since 1851 that formed July 16-31. The Gulf of Mexico coast is the preferred strike location.

Sea Surface Temperatures
Sea Surface Temperature (SSTs) remained near average over the tropical Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles in July, thanks to plenty of African dust keeping sunlight from heating up the ocean. However, SSTs are 0.5-1.0 C above average over much of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, so there is still good reason to expect an above average number of tropical storms and intense hurricanes this season--but not the 15 or 16 more named storms predicted by the Klotzbach/Gray team and TSR. I think it is more likely we will see 10-12 more named storms in the Atlantic this season, for a total of 12-14 when we include Andrea and Barry.


Figure 2. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) departure from average for July 16, 2007. Image credit: NOAA.

Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential
It's not just the SSTs that are important for hurricanes, it's also the total amount of heat in the ocean to a depth of about 150 meters. Hurricanes stir up water from down deep due to their high winds, so a shallow layer of warm water isn't as beneficial to a hurricane as a deep one. The Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP, Figure 3) is a measure of this total heat content. A high TCHP over 80 is very beneficial to rapid intensification. There is less heat energy available this year than in 2005, which recorded the highest SSTs and TCHP ever measured in the tropical Atlantic. However, this is not true in the Western Caribbean, where we have very high TCHP this year. The African dust storms have not penetrated all the way to the Western Caribbean, and SSTs and TCHP have stayed above average. In the unlikely event we get an intense hurricane in late July, it would probably be in the Western Caribbean.


Figure 3. Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential (TCHP) for July 14 2005 (top) and July 14 2007 (bottom). TCHP is a measure of the total heat energy available in the ocean. Record high values of TCHP were observed in 2005. Image credit: NOAA/AOML.

Wind shear
Wind shear is usually defined as the difference in wind between 200 mb (roughly 40,000 foot altitude) and 850 mb (roughly 5,000 foot altitude). In most circumstances, wind shear above 20 knots will act to inhibit tropical storm formation by tearing a storm apart. Wind shear below 8 knots is very conducive for tropical storm formation.

Wind shear during most of June and July has been above 20 knots along the two branches of the jet stream--the polar jet, which has been positioned along the U.S.-Canadian border, and the subtropical jet, which has been over the Caribbean. This pattern is apparent in this morning's wind shear map (Figure 4, top). However, a major shift the Northern Hemisphere weather pattern is expected over the next two weeks. The GFS model is predicting that the persistent trough of low pressure that has been over the Eastern U.S. will move off and be replaced by a ridge of high pressure about ten days from now. The subtropical jet will weaken, bringing pockets of very low wind shear all across the tropical Atlantic by the end of the month (Figure 4, bottom image). The shear will remain high enough to discourage tropical storm formation over the coming week, but chances for a named storm will increase sharply by the beginning of August.



Figure 4. Top: Wind shear analyzed by the GFS model at 00 GMT Monday, July 16 2007. Bottom: Forecasted wind shear for August 1, 2007. Wind shear is the difference in wind between 200 mb (roughly 40,000 foot altitude) and 850 mb (roughly 5,000 foot altitude) in meters per second (multiply by two to get the approximate wind shear in knots). In most circumstances, wind shear above 20 knots (10 m/s, the light purples in the image) will act to inhibit tropical storm formation. Wind shear below 8 knots (4 m/s, the lightest red color) is very conducive for tropical storm formation. Note the large increase in low wind shear areas expected by August 1 (bottom image, red colors).

Dry air and African dust
June and July are the peak months for dust coming off the coast of Africa. Despite the fact that the Sahel region of Africa has seen two straight years of above-average rains, which should result in soil stabilization and fewer dust outbreaks, 2007 has seen very high levels of dust coming from Africa. This activity continued over the tropical Atlantic during the first half of July, and I expect this activity to continue for the remainder of July. This dry air and dust will act as a major deterrent to any storms that tries to form between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands the remainder of July. With the coming Northern Hemisphere weather pattern shift, it is possible that the dry air coming off of the Sahara will fade some at the end of the month, though.

Steering currents
The steering current pattern for June and the first half of July featured a pattern much like we saw in 2006, with an active jet stream bringing many troughs of low pressure off the East Coast of the U.S. As I discussed in my blog on Friday the 13th, this steering current pattern is expected to shift next week, bringing a ridge of high pressure over the Eastern U.S. and an extension of the Bermuda High westwards over the U.S. This pattern will act to block recurvature of any tropical cyclones that might form in the last half of July. Such a pattern puts the Western Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and east coast of Florida at highest risk, as we saw in 2004 and 2005. Note that the the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. East Coast from the Carolinas northwards can expect reduced risk under this steering pattern. Steering current patterns are not predictable more than about two weeks in advance, and there is no way to tell if this new steering current pattern will remain in place for a few days or a few months.

Summary
Recent history suggests a 75% chance of at least one named storm occurring in the last half of July. This July, I put the odds at 50%, due to the unfavorable conditions for the coming week. Any storms that occur this July will probably be towards the end of the month, due to the lower shear, warmer SSTs, and potential for less African dust and dry air then. The areas of highest risk are the Western Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and east coast of Florida.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

could hurricane cosme be the fasts hurricane to evere Rapid Dissipation like that its gone
1002. IKE
Cosme got stripped of it's clothes!
1003. Drakoen
LOL Ike apparently so...
cosme is now running through the pacific nude
What's going on N of Puerto Rico?
Posted By: TheCaneWhisperer at 1:13 PM EDT on July 17, 2007.

Posted By: hurricane23 at 12:19 PM EDT on July 17, 2007.
We still might get lucky cane as there no telling how long this steering pattern might be in place for.It could be in place for 2 weeks or 3 months.Steering currents are hard to predict a week out in time so we'll see how everything pans out in the coming weeks and months.Adrian

Figured you would respond to that! I realize that currents are unpredictable Adrian. Hence the "still could get lucky" comment in my last post. Have you ever read my blog to see my stance on steering currents? Or you just like to stab at people?

Stab at people are you serious??No man just basically making a comment on what you said not need to take to the heart.I'll take a look at your blog.Iam not interested in starting trouble on jeff masters blog and to be honest i try my best on showing respect towards everyone on this blog.Adrian
1007. Drakoen
Posted By: cantoriesnumber1fan at 5:51 PM GMT on July 17, 2007.

What's going on N of Puerto Rico?


Convection associated with a tropical wave enhanced by an upper level trough.
1008. IKE
Puerto Rico.....


"The National Weather Service in San Juan has issued an

* urban and small stream flood advisory for...
the following

Municipalities
in Puerto Rico
Luquillo... Canovanas... Fajardo... Carolina... Loiza and Rio Grande

* until 315 PM AST

* at 305 PM AST... NWS Doppler radar indicated showers and isolated
thunderstorms with very heavy rain and gusty winds across these
areas... especially from Fajardo and Luquillo westward to San Juan
metropolitan area. So far the heaviest rainfall has been in and
around the municipalities of Luquillo and Fajardo moving west. At
least through 315 PM AST... as additional showers and thunderstorms
will develop and move through these areas producing two or more
inches of precipitation.

Excessive runoff from these thunderstorms will cause flooding of
small creeks and streams... highways and underpasses.
Additionally... roads and land along the banks of creeks and streams
and other low lying areas are subject to flooding. Also... mudslides
are possible in areas of steep terrain."...........
looks like a stalled front to me very slight chance of development

non-Java loop
1010. Drakoen
Its an upper level trough. The surface pressures are high, indicating little is happening at the surface. The upper level winds are high in the area as well.
Link

There is definitely swirl to the low just sw of the Verdes. Not likely to develop, but sure looks like it's trying to shed the SAL.
1012. Drakoen
yea MLC, but it is surrounded by strong SAL.
Just wait until we get to here... Compare this with the same map on the top of DR.M post.
Named Storm Tracks September 1-16 1851-2006
hey guys: san juan radar loopLink
Gulftiger:You need to leave Taz alone.
Man, didn't realize Taz was so sensitive. I was just messing around with him. I even said I liked him and he brought a lot to the blog. He ignores me anyway. I would apologize to him but he can't see it anyway. Someone tell Taz I said I am sorry. By the way, I am a long time lurker and really enjoy this blog. There are very few people in my everyday life that appreciate my passion for hurricanes and severe weather. But I feel you guys on here can.
Can't mention names out of respect for the Met., which I do respect him becuase he's a hell of a Met. But back when he started, the AMS grandfathered him as an official meteorologist (he did not have a degree). At least that's to my understanding from a reliable source Now, they want you to be a rocket scientists.

Nah, they just want you to have a degree:)
1019. Iceman2
Storm W

do you want to be a tv met?
Hello All,

It's been a while since I visited the blog. I was wondering what is the best vorticity to select when looking at the animated GFS?

Thanks.
: GulfTiger26 thats ok this watch your P and Qs ok evere thing is cool and i can see your post now
Afternoon all ☺

I have met some pretty brilliant folks that did not have degrees, I have also met some pretty ignorant ones that did. But usually having a degree of any kind will advance your career.

Welcom SL. Look at this. so the 925 and 850mb are closest to the surface. You can also find that link and a lot more here.
1025. Iceman2
but you can't have a degree and no personality, that won't get you anywhere either. I think you need both.
Doing well. I was being funny too. I have a story about that AMS stuff. When I was working at the T.V. station I was helping one of the on-air guys get his seal. We were doing it online. It was so much fun!!..LOL 20 years experience and he had to get his AMS seal or he was gonna be fired. It was sad.
Hey SW and 03

Good point SW, and kind of what I was hinting at.

Back to work. See y'all this afternoon ☺
Thanks SJ. It's nice seeing the same folks here after a year.
1032. 900MB
I think what the good doctor has failed to highlight is that the western caribbean is prime right now. SSts are actually warmer than 2005 in the area and the shear is low...now! if anything starts to spin around the Yucatan, it could be a monster quickly.
My Montauk, NY update is that water has gotten very warm (70 degrees plus) in the past week, and we are now above average for this time of year. My forecast is that from now til october could be very active, and maybe even the East Coast will see something that we haven't seen in years (hope not).
It depends Storm, but most of the T.V stations have switched there stance on that the last 10 years. I mean, if you have over 20 years of experience then maybe make an exception. But I have seen some of the fools on T.V and agree it should be required!..LOL
Hey quick question does anyone else see this:
"directly East of Central Florida (about 1300 miles) somewhere close to 63W 30N there seems to be circulation stacked up on all 3 scales, HDW-Low, Med, High" quoted from another wx site.
We are cool Taz. I will be on my best behavior from now on. Where are you from Taz?
SSts are actually warmer than 2005 in the area and the shear is low...now! if anything starts to spin around the Yucatan, it could be a monster quickly.

The Gulf has some of the hottest water in the world right now:

Canadian has a Cape Verde now.
Hi all

Just noticed this feature ( 21N 69W ) right where the CMC keeps spinning something up. I also looked at the vis loop and there is a rotation there but seems to be headed off to the ENE for the moment. Interesting

I do not see any low at all

Link
Kman good find could be a seed.
: GulfTiger26 ca
weatherguy03,
My friend always said a degree was just a piece of paper, experience can count too, take Tom Terry for example yes he has a degree but the NHC sure loves him now don't they?
You can see it here . use the zoom setting on the loop and click on the area just N of Haiti

Link
Anyone know of any good myspace weather profiles? I've added a few and any sites for great weather layouts?
We're gonna change Kman's name to EagleEye -- he can spot a swirl...fastest around the globe!!! lol, Kman!
hey there MLC

I'll take any accolades that come my way LOL. Did you look at the vis loop ?. Definitely turning
Kman.. Wasn't this what the CMC was putting on the map a couple of days ago?
take your pick





jp

I don't think its the cloud pattern. I looked at the loop before posting it just in case it was the cloud set up. It may not be at the surface but it is definitely spinning
MichaelSTL, a couple of your posts prompted me to do some "homework"


Posted By: MichaelSTL at 3:43 PM EDT on July 15, 2007.
Whatever the CMC shows on vorticity, it is not even a depression; here is what you want to see, based on real storms (I always look at SLP to see if something is an actual low, since vorticity will show anything that has some kind of rotation in it, even if there is no surface feature associated with it, even the weakest depressions will usually show up as a closed low on the models):

at 10:19 AM EDT on July 16, 2007.
...CMC... I think that everybody should stop looking at only vorticity and actually check the SLP maps to see if there is actually even a surface low

==================


In my attempt to understand more about what vorticity is, and what the units (or values) output by various models represent, I have done quite a bit of reading online. Here are a two quotes; and below them, I have tried to state what I think the plot of the CMC 850mb Vorticity Model is showing.

Before I go further (and perhaps ask other questions) I would like your (and others) comments.

Do the quotes # 1 & 2 appear accurate and relevant to the plot of the CMC 850mb Vorticity Model?

Would my statement #3 be an accurate explanation of the scale on the CMC 850mb Vorticity Model plot?

1. VORTICITY
The measurement of the rotation of a small air parcel. It has vorticity when the parcel spins as it moves along its path. Although the axis of the rotation can extend in any direction, meteorologists are primarily concerned with the rotational motion about an axis that is perpendicular to the earth's surface. If it does not spin, it is said to have zero vorticity. In the Northern Hemisphere, the vorticity is positive when the parcel has a counterclockwise, or cyclonic, rotation. It is negative when the parcel has clockwise, or anticyclonic, rotation.

2. Vorticity values
The normal range of vorticity values are from near zero (or single digit negative) to sometimes more than +30units. A unit of vorticity is equal to 1 times 10 to the negative 5th with units of seconds to the negative 1. The units of vorticity are derived from the change in wind speed over a horizontal distance. Since wind speed has units of m/s and distance has units of m, the units cancel to seconds to the negative 1.

On the CMC 850mb Vorticity Model (...the 850 mb level or around 5000 feet above sea level.)

Labeled:
850mb vorticity (10-5 s-1) T=0 h
Shading every 2 units; Contouring every 4 units

3. The "Scale" at the bottom of the plot indicates that:

a. Areas of positive (counterclockwise, or cyclonic) vorticity are shaded with yellow at two units, through orange(14), on up to red at twenty-two units.

b. Areas of negative (clockwise, or anticyclonic) vorticity are shaded with light green at two units, through aqua(14), on up to blue at twenty-two units.
========================

I very much appreciate the efforts of the "regulars" here, which are helping me learn more about forecasting & tropical cyclogenesis.
CRS
weathersp

I think it is. I have been watching the convection intensify in this area all day and because the ULL is pulling away to the W leaving this area behind i concluded that the convection was not necessarily being enhanced by the ULL alone. So, I decided to look a little closer and saw that feature.

It may go away as fast as it materialised but at least it is something to watch
1055. 900MB
MichaelSTL-
Thanks for backing up my point. If you look at just the western carib and gulf from a sst anomoly, water temp, shear, and tropical cylclone potential, it's all as bad if not worse than 2005.
And is that white I see of the west coast of FLA (32 degrees celcius)..that's bath water!
JP,
Look at that convection off Mexico? I heard it was a Upper Level Trough but that is such a weak area of shear there needs to be watched.


Shear tendency in that area is generally in the negatives, JP.

And SAL does not affect storms like y'all say it does.
yep JP the Gulf. Thats Brett Territory.
And is that white I see of the west coast of FLA (32 degrees celcius)..that's bath water!


Here are some readings from that area:

Station VENF1 - Venice, FL
Water Temperature (WTMP): 90.3 F

Station CWBF1 - 8726724 - Clearwater Beach, FL
Water Temperature (WTMP): 90.0 F

Station FMRF1 - 8725520 - Fort Myers, FL
Water Temperature (WTMP): 89.4 F
It looks like pretty much all of the models want to drastically reduce the shear in the Caribbean by 5-7 days out. Dr. Masters was right--we'd better be keeping our eyes peeled by then. I can expect blog activity (and unfortunately StormKat activity) to pick up in a week or two.


What really matters is moisture content, not dust... And the moisture content at mid level isn't too terribly low... It's not dry enough to toast a system.
It may go away as fast as it materialised but at least it is something to watch

Yes but at least it will give us something to watch.
this wave is sure is looking good
JP,
What about the system off Haiti to the North nice flare up of convection. If moves further West very low shear and hot temperatures of water.
Aportguy, Are you talking about 20/78?
This is what CIMSS says about the SAL (click link to see examples):

The Saharan Air Layer's Dry Air: The Saharan Air Layer's dry air modifies very little as it traverses the North Atlantic. Figure 1 shows locations of several GPS dropwindsondes that were launched by NOAA's G-IV jet around the environment of Hurricane Danielle of 1998. Figure 2 shows composite vertical moisture profiles for SAL (dry) vs non-SAL (moist) dropwindsondes depicted in Figure 1 and clearly shows the extreme dryness of the SAL air to the north of Danielle.

The Saharan Air Layer's Low to Mid-Level Easterly Jet: The SAL's low to mid-level jet can dramatically increase the local vertical wind shear in the North Atlantic. This easterly jet typically moves at 20-45 kt and can generate vertical shear magnitudes as high as 40-60 kt. Figure 3 shows Hurricanes Isaac and Joyce of 2000 and the strong SAL induced vertical wind shear NE of Joyce.

Saharan Air Layer/Tropical Cyclone Interactions: Tropical cyclones (TCs) interact with the SAL in several ways. Some TCs are embedded in the SAL for their entire life cycle and often struggle to intensify beyond strong tropical storm strength (>=34 kt to <64 kt). Tropical Storm Chantal of 2001 is an example of this type of interaction (Java Loop 1). Other TCs like Joyce of 2000 can be overrun by the faster moving SAL and are quickly weakened (Java Loop 2). TCs that are embedded in the SAL early in their life cycle and later emerge from the SAL can often be seen undergoing a period of rapid intensification. Hurricane Erin of 2001 is an example of such an interaction (Java Loop 3).
21/69
Posted By: Hellsniper223 at 7:20 PM GMT on July 17, 2007.
What really matters is moisture content, not dust... And the moisture content at mid level isn't too terribly low... It's not dry enough to toast a system.


...credible point Sniper, and there's wv at upper levels as well.
Talking about what Kman posted
JP,
Look our for T-storms in your area :)
Chicklit

See my 6:58 post


Upper level moisture content.

My previous post was Mid level.
Not that it means much, but the Verde's low pressure has dropped one mb to 1010, since this morning according to the surface map.
Right, I'm just saying that enough moisture exists to keep it alive while traversing the MDR.
Tropical weather discussion
NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Tue Jul 17 2007

Tropical weather discussion for North America...Central
America...the Gulf of Mexico...the Caribbean Sea...northern
sections of South America...and the Atlantic Ocean to the
African coast from the Equator to 32n. The following information
is based on satellite imagery...meteorological analysis...
weather observations...and radar.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...Tropical waves...
a tropical wave has been added along 24w extending through the
Cape Verde Islands. A 1010 mb low is along the wave axis near
15n moving W near 18 kt. The dakar raob showed the wave passage
well yesterday morning. No deep convection is in the vicinity of
the low...though scattered moderate/isolated strong is embedded
in the ITCZ from 9n-12n between 20w-24w.
1086. Drakoen
Can you guys resize your pictures? they are too wide...
MichaelSTL.... or anybody else....
Any comments or feedback on my vorticity question (Posted at 3:11 PM EDT)
(yes I know it's a "tome" of a question... but some of this stuff is a bit complex, it appears)
a simple:
1 - Yes
2 - Yes
3 - Yes
or
1 - Yes
2 - No
3 - No

or the like would be helpful to me to let me know if I am on the right track...

...or any suggested link to further reading about units of vorticity?

Thanks again
CRS
that 1010mb low is out of the ITCZ

1091. emagirl
good afternoon everyone!! Anything brewing??
Jp, If what dry air is there keeps it a shallow system, the likelyhood of it being able to pass beneath heavy windshear is greater.
1093. Drakoen
i see we are all talking about the tropical wave of Africa. Its not impressive; the LLC is well to the north of the wave. The low is moving to the Southwest and bringing the SAL along with it. THe convection is limited to the ITCZ. none of the reliable computer models develop the wave.
her is that 1010mb low

1096. Drakoen
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 7:56 PM GMT on July 17, 2007.

lol thank you Drakoen for that

the low is moving WSW, no convection firing even if the environment is moist tells me this wont do much at the present time


No problem.
I think the energy on the CV wave is moving to the southern extent of the wave.
...wouldn't count the CV wave/low out just yet. imho
1099. nash28
Could be another interesting drive home again in the Tampa area.....


From NWS:

Special Weather Statement


LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO- PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK- MANATEE- HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO- CHARLOTTE-LEE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CEDAR KEY...CHIEFLAND...CRYSTAL RIVER... INVERNESS...BUSHNELL...THE VILLAGES...BROOKSVILLE...SPRING HILL... NEW PORT RICHEY... ZEPHYRHILLS...CLEARWATER...ST. PETERSBURG... BRANDON...TAMPA... LAKELAND...WINTER HAVEN...BRADENTON... WAUCHULA...SEBRING...AVON PARK... SARASOTA...VENICE...ARCADIA... PORT CHARLOTTE...PUNTA GORDA...CAPE CORAL... FORT MYERS 230 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2007
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

SOUTHEAST FLOW IS CONVERGING WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON... AND IS PRODUCING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES..AND THE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.

GIVEN THE VERY WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY BECOME STRONG...AND WILL CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. GIVEN THE NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.


1100
Sounds like some good rain for you Nash -

It wasn't too long ago you were complaining that the east coast always gets all the good (wet) stuff!

We have been pretty dry the last few days in Miami.

I guess its a delicate balancing act we have.
1102. Drakoen
The wave over the D.R. is slightly more interesting. From looking through some visible loops there maybe some rotation associated with the convection. The convection is associated with a tropical wave as well as an upper level trough.The suface pressures are around 30.06 in falling by .5 in. This makes me believe that most of the convection is associated with the upper level trough. The shear runs 5-15kts. the current motion suggest a ENE movement which would move it into a more unfavorable environment. None of the reliable computer models develop this wave.
Nash..yesterday was one of the craziest i have ever seen in tampa, for a summer storm
Hi everyone,
I am in Jamaica and was wondering what is the outlook for the island this year in respect of hurricane hits?
Welcome, jamweather! What part of Jamaica?

According to the way the high is in the Atlantic, Jamaica could well be in the track zone as storms form and move into the Caribbean and the GOM.

You're at a good spot here for cane watching/tracking. Some good people with good knowledge of the storms. Hang around and this site could possibly help out; but, ALWAYS do listen to your local authorities for official info.
1106. franck
Taz..dude..if you can crank down the upper level winds by about 25 knots, and photo shop some more red in the cloud tops, I'll look at your low.
1107. Drakoen
I really hope we get some rain here in my little corner of Florida. For the last four weeks we have had hardly any despite the overall area being in the normal summer rainy pattern. Everytime storms approach, they either fall apart, split and go around, or change direction, very frustrating! Bring on a weak(TD) rainy tropical cyclone. Any chance this blob northeast of Hispanola will move wnw?
1109. Melagoo
Well formed eye

Cosme
1111. Drakoen
HurrMichaelorl the are of convection is associated with an upper level trough and is moving to the ENE.
1112. Melagoo
Are there any Meteorologists on the blog?
1113. Drakoen
Posted By: Melagoo at 8:45 PM GMT on July 17, 2007.

Are there any Meteorologists on the blog?


StormW is (i think)
thats not a eye in cosme cosme is gone
1115. Drakoen
yep thats just a naked swirl hardly any convection associated with it.
1116. Melagoo
MichaelSTL, Drakoen, Nash, Patrap, Tazmanian is this just an interest thing ... like a hobby?

Just curious because you guys know a ton of stuff as well as others here ... thanks for educating me I've learned a lot from your observations!

Melagoo :c)
There is some tornado warningS of the north carolina coast.
Now they ended.
... Preliminary storm survey scheduled this morning in Louisa
County...

A storm survey will be conducted this morning by the National
Weather Service in Wakefield. The survey is in relation to the
severe thunderstorms that moved through Louisa County on Monday July
16 during the late afternoon hours.

The results and conclusions of the survey will be completed and
transmitted via updated public information statement (wbcpnsakq) and
posted to our website (www.Weather.Gov/wakefield) by late this
afternoon.
1120. Melagoo
Is there any hope for Cosme?

views
StormW 4:41 PM
Thank you very much for the HABY HINTS link. It has helped very much. I believe I am much closer to understanding the vorticity plots produced by the models. I wanted to make an attempt on my own to figure it out, prior to posing the question here. I tip my hat to you folks who patiently answer questions from people who obviously haven't even tried to do just a little research on their own.

Thanks again
CRS
NO
Tazmanian
I tink you left something out:
thats not a eye in cosme cos cosme is gone
CRS ;)
Cosme looks Subtropical Now.
I have a BS in Meteorology. Graduated from Millersville University now live in Charleston, SC.
Hot as can be. Interesting set up for us this weekend. Beyond that, overall pattern becomes very favorable for tropical activity for Atlantic, Gulf, and Caribbean.
Hey Chucktown, welcome aboard from a fellow Charlestonian ☺
I have about one year to go until I'll have my meteorology degree.
I've been posting on Dr. Master's site for a while, just at odd times. I read the blog however every day during hurricane season.
Interesting SW, very informative post ☺

Hope to have your degree soon?
Yeah, I've checked out your website before stormjunkie.
I thought I recognized the name, but had not seen it in some time if I recall correctly. What part of Charleston?
Link

That area could at least be under a sever thunderstorm warning right?
West Ashley.
Here is the track of Cosme looks like it is going to go south of the islands

Link
lol Chuck, I wasn't going to ask :~)

Did you see the pics of the 7-11 storms?
I have been to Charleston, S.C. Went to the beach passing there.
Link

Tornado vortex.
Afternoon all.
No haven't seen the pics, but if that GFS verifies in two weeks and locks in for the rest of the hurricane season, tropical activity will be quickly ramping up into August and September.
I have been tracking these storms and no warning have been issued.
Sorry to hear about your son SW, but glad to hear you are going to get to take some classes. 4010, that is some high level stuff there!

Afternoon winds, great to see ya
Link

Look at this line, Im watching it to see if they issue some warnings.
LOL Storm, no way we would lose faith in you!
Naw, SW, I've never been one to put much in a degree. Honestly I think we should find a way to start allowing for specialized training for about ages 14 and on up. And I am not talking about shop or something. High level learning programs for fields such as medicine, meteorology, physics, etc...
The last two days there was a sever thunderstorm warning here.A 12year old boy got hit by lightning and lived.
"A lightning strike hit close by and evidently traveled through the ground or some other way and to a building, and a boy was standing next to a metal frame door and felt the effects of the lightning," said Steve Wilburn, executive director of Old Hickory Council.

He was at a pool, but moved to the shelter.
Thank goodness he lived.
Is it me or is the Atlantic/Caribbean starting to heat up :) tropically speaking of course.
Statement as of 5:04 PM EDT on July 17, 2007


... Strong thunderstorms will affect Hyde... Pamlico and Beaufort
counties until 600 PM EDT...

At 504 PM EDT... there were strong thunderstorms 24 miles southwest of
Swanquarter... or about 22 miles northeast of James City... moving east
at 15 mph. The strong thunderstorms will be near Hobucken... and...
lowland at 520 PM EDT. Other locations to be affected by the storms
include Florence... Maribel... Pamlico Beach... Rose Bay... Royal... South
Creek and Germantown.

Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph and small hail can be expected with these
storms. Heavy rainfall... up to 3 inches in an hour... will cause
ponding of water on roadways and localized flooding in low lying
areas. Motorists should slow down on area roadways to avoid
hydroplaning. These storms are producing an excessive amount of
deadly lightning.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or other local media outlets for
further updates on the weather situation across the area.

3 inches per hour.. Alot of rain..lol
I was just looking at that CB, was not sure what to make of it. Looks like it just made it under some convection also. Not that it means anything. It is an interesting feature though.
Did anyone see the mass flood watches around Chicago?

* a series of disturbances from the northwest will kick off an
area of thunderstorms this evening over southern Minnesota. The
potential exists for heavy rain from some of the thunderstorms
as they move southeast into northern Illinois and Northwest
Indiana later tonight.
Noticed the Vort earlier and was wondering about the CMC from yesterday.
Well, if it makes it to just east of the central Bahamas, it looks like shear could begin to decrease over the area?

Actually if it gains a little lat and moves a little further W then shear would appear to decrease?

Anyone have any thoughts on that area?
Jfl, this does not seem to be the same area the CMC showed at 12z yesterday. That system was coming from much further S and E. It should not have been where it is now for another 48hrs per the CMC 12z yesterday.
Ya just went back and was watching it as you were posting. It looks like it comes from those flare ups of convection you can see down by SA.
Don't get me wrong, I don't put much faith in the CMC. Not sure what is down by SA, and doubt it will amount to much, this area N of DR on the other hand is a little more interesting.

It almost looks like the flow around the high to the N would be aiding any vorticity that was there?
1170. nash28
Man, there is a ton of lightning over us today! That's why Tampa is the lightning capital of the world.

Amazing light show right now from my garage.

1171. eye
nash, is the blob N of DR anything to be interested in?
1172. nash28
Not sure yet Eye.... haven't had the chance to look at the tropics yet today:-) Been very busy at work and at home the last few days...

Give me a bit. I'll check it out.
1173. eye
HURRY UP BEFORE IT DISAPPEARS!!!!!
What does DR stand for?
Checked out the DR blob a few hours back 20-30kts shear, good upper level divergance, no convergance at the surface though. The one by C America looks to be moving into land & may get interesting in the EPAC. Just S of TX~ lotta buoys need repaired. Pressures were up, a few mildy windy spots, not much to get excited about.
Dominican Republic
Hey ajm ☺

Dominican Republic
Thanks, I tend to be a bit slow.
lol, abbreviations give me a hard time to, once I hear them I get that duh moment :~)
Easy one to load~ check out how the ULL to the NNE of the DR blob is thowing dry air at it & should force it into the mountains of Cuba.
1181. JLPR
Oh men cmc its at it again and seems to want to develop a low in front of Africa
This model is crazy and what is sad is that no other model supports it

cmc model
1182. FLARV
Hello all, it seems that everything is pointing toward another nasty season for FL (I am on the East Coast). Is there any hope of dodging a nasty cane this year?
1183. Drakoen
JLPR there is a low in front of Africa...
Sorry to disappoint Nash, but just found out this news a few weeks ago. Tampa has been dethroned.

Irritating scientists have done it again, stripping Florida of what we thought was a God-given bragging right.

This time it's the eggheads at NASA, telling us that Florida is no longer the "lightning capital of the world."

Bummer.

Rwanda, a country in Central Africa, has been dubbed the most dangerous place on the planet to cavort outdoors. Scientists say space satellite sensors, spying on the globe below, don't lie.


However, I don't now if you recently reclaimed you throne or not since I can only find articles talking about it from 2002.
1185. JLPR
duh drakoen

I mean the low it develops after that one
1186. JLPR
:D
1187. nash28
Guys and gals.... The steering pattern may be shaping up to be bad news like 2004 again this year, but please keep one thing in mind... in fact, keep it at the forefront of your mind!

For ANYTHING to harm us in FL, be it on the East Coast like Frances and Jeanne did around Vero Beach, or for a Charley to happen near or over Tampa, or for a Katrina (God forbid) the conditions must be PERFECT! So far this year, only ONE condition has been there... SST. There has to be favorable upper level wind shear, plentiful moisture to draw from AND the absence of destructive ULL's like we saw last year wreak havoc on storms approaching FL from the south.

The setup of the A/B High is bad, yes. However, it means nothing without all of the other elements coming together. Let's hope that doesn't happen...
1188. Drakoen
Posted By: JLPR at 11:16 PM GMT on July 17, 2007.

duh drakoen

I mean the low it develops after that one


heh.ok....
So far this year, only ONE condition has been there... SST. There has to be favorable upper level wind shear, plentiful moisture to draw from AND the absence of destructive ULL's like we saw last year wreak havoc on storms approaching FL from the south.


So are any of these other conditions predicted to be favorable for tropical development? Or is it something that can't be predicted until it occurs a few days to week out?
1190. Alec
jean, one of the conditions(shear forecasts) are very unreliable for long range forecasts.....since many of them are for averages between layers of the atmosphere(such as between 250-850mb).......
1191. Drakoen
Alec, when there is model agreement on the sheer its a pretty good bet. Cyclogenesis is hard to predict that the upper level winds.
Thanks Alec. So what time period is is a sheer forecast good for ( a few days, a week, two weeks)?
1193. Alec
Drak, shear forecasts are terrible from about 5 days and further.......they were very bad last yr.....

shear forecasts for the 1st-3rd day time period in general are normally better.....
1194. JLPR
Hey guys Cosme seems to be trying to get dressed developing convection on the southern side of the low
Visible Cosme loop
1196. Drakoen
i am not saying they are reliable i am saying that when they are back up by evidence of what they are predicting they have a better chance of being right.
Look at this storm about to hit Raliegh.No warning though.

Link

Keep updating it for the new.More purple just developed.
Well, the CMC may be wrong with the new low coming off Africa; but it's been my thinking that the current low could pave the way (squelching SAL) for a wave behind it.

I also want to study the low over north Columbia. Pressure there is 1009 according to the latest surface map. I've had some concerns that we'd see a low develop over SA and make its way to the western GOM. If you look at the way that next high hooks up with the B/A high, it appears if steering would find Texas maybe. Texas is quite familiar with A, B, C named storms!
Link

Who thinks there should be a warning for the N.C capital?
what about the convection near the lesser antilles it seems like convection is strengthing and it has a spin to it is this a threat or will it make it into the central caribbean?
Northx

Max reflectivity...67 It should be a warning
Posted By: scwindsaloft at 11:54 PM GMT on July 17, 2007.

Northx

Max reflectivity...67 It should be a warning


And its a major city.
lol, look at the latest frame. Big purple coming direct hit to Raliegh.
WBK: Who is Mike Vick? From what you said he did, they ought to do the same thing to him. That is just awful.
Link

Raliegh has a the major weather station for north carolina.The storm looks severe to me.
I think im talking to my self.lol, any one there?
Never mind the warning just got issued.
Why did they wait till it hit the city?Now it looks the weaker.But they still issued the warning.
Who is Mike Vick?...lol

Sorry cat ☺; he is a, quickly becoming notorious, quaterback for the Atlanta Falcons. Was a big time college player, and currently getting paid millions to play for the Falcons.
So Will the Dr Blob Develop? Is there Any chance at all it it will form =) :)
Hello and good evening. I notice some weather loitering right on my eastern doorstep ( also noted by louisianaboy 444 ) Whats up with that ??

Come on guys, we need various spurious, indetirminate maps, graphs, images, and links to this so that we can have something to talk about tonight. LOL
Hmmm
Evening all. Just checking on all of the various blobs and spins and what the opinions are here on WU. Hopefully we can keep it a bit more sane than last night. LOL
1223. Patrap
9
1225. Drakoen
ignore list - priceless.
If you ever get to the islands Tevor, look me up. I have a 10 gal bucket of West Indian Ass Whooping I want to pour on you.
poof u disappear
Alot of blobs coming of the african coast but the SAL continues to be very persistent in that area which in my opinion will keep things in check for the time being.
Lot's of disturbed weather - no organization
1233. 0741
is that area se of islands going into south america or carribbean?
Hey Drak, I dont know if you can see it from your place but there is a 2 layer deck of clouds rolling in. The Upper deck is white & the lower deck is dark & there is lightning going off between them. I Dont See Anything on Radar ?
Tevor13, you're messing with the wrong folks.

Messing with the wrong folks
SJ: Oh I didn't know that but thanks for telling me. I can't stand Football, I was raised in it and hate it. but thanks for the info. You been doing ok? how was you vacation? I hope ya had alot of fun.
1238. 0741
i think tevor13 is been ban back to tropical talk
t 13 is gone gone gone
Convection north of puerto rico is basically being inhanced by an ULL in the area and upper level winds are currently unfavorable for any significant development to take place.
1241. Patrap
Atlantic Basin ..WV loop....Link
Hi Pottery2, looks like you may get your lawn watered tonight even though it looks like the heaviest part will pass North of you.
1243. 0741
were will area se of islands move too?
1244. Patrap
GOES-12 Channel-3 (WV)..Loop

Link
0741 it is currently moving towards theNW. Please see the link listed by Patrap and this will show you the movement.
07/17/2007 0814 PM

1 miles W of Raleigh, Wake County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by trained spotter.


Skywarn spotter reported a 60 mph wind gust. Trees and
powerlines down on Morgan street... near Tryon Hill
drive. The tree fell on a house. No injuries.
1247. 0741
what am i look at link for?
0741

the water vapor loop is one indicator to determine the movement of systems
Posted By: 0741 at 9:10 PM EDT on July 17, 2007. (hide)
what am i look at link for?

Several ULL'S=No tropical development for now.
Missing

...SAL doesn't look near as bad as it did when 96L was trying to form. Still looks as if it's fading more to me and might allow the next wave to form.
Who is that Trevor13? He must be a little kid younger than 13 to be acting like that. And yes I - him and reported him. Why is it all of a sudden does these idiots come on DrM blog and act like this. They act like this blog is a playground for little kids.
Really falling in love with this sattelite.
link
i think the feature near the islands is looking pretty good to me right now isnt it an ULL though..maybe the low can come down to the surface how is the wind shear in that area?
Hi Josh,actually I posted the link so those persons less knowledgeable could look at an animation of the areas that they were asking about and better understand what is going on. Did you think that it was a personal "Thing" with me and Nexsat?? LOL
E-ATL shear

wind shear near the islands is 10-15 kts,and it doesnt get stronger than that, actually one pocket way to the north of 20 kts
Good night StormW and good luck at the Doc tomorrow. God Bless.
shear looks to be decreasing in that area
Good nite all, off to bed, lots of work in the AM.
actually josh the wave comming off of africa appears to be entering the water at an area where the shear is decreasing and it looks like it has the latitude i wouldnt say it will develop yet but it has a better chance than the other waves that have recently fizzled out...lets wait till it gets in the water and we'll see
Josh check on StormW;s blog for the answer to your question. I adressed it there earlier. Good night.
the best chance for a developing storm has of now is in the southern gulf or northwest carb. the shift in the pattern in the next 3 weeks looks to allow the conditions to be extremely more conducive for tropical development
If Vick is found guilty of these charges he should be banned from the NFL for life.{even though he was just in Cayman} LOL
1274. 0741
Caymanite that cool sat pic
Thanks 0741, please note that you can change the area as well.
iy mates go slow drop the main theres a lull in the air something once in a life time about to pass by here a monster from out in the middle of know where maybe a 500 mile wider still waters 13 days no longer
Hello. I'm back after a power outage for a while.
Whats the story on the East Caribbean wave now ? looks pretty wet, and low shear around. Note that the dust is back though.
Anything in that ??
1278. 0741
you live on leedward islands?
African Wave train all aboard!

Seems to be a low pressure over haiti mp
0741, I'm in Trinidad.
1283. 0741
Seems to be a low pressure over haiti mp but shear is high because ull to north
its looking pretty healthy right now with low shear around it....
SDDI-20070717-0700-RGB-09-DUST-0-1.jpg


...another shot across the pond at the SAL.
1286. 0741
pottery2 you got alot storm to your east with that tropical wave
guys, u think we will get a lot of rain? Barbados
0741, it looks like most of it will pass north of here. Some rain would be good. Where are you ?
WRDQ's 27 Eye on the Tropics Update:
A low pressure system over the Cape Verdes is currently being forecasted by a long range model to develop and bring moisture to the Carribean. Looking to ramp up towards August!
Julie, looks like Barbados will get wet for sure.
pottery2

excuse my ignorance....

Trinidad Cuba Hondorus Bolivia?
Hi Julie. Get the umbrella out !
Rep. Of Trinidad and Tobago, at aprox 11n 61 w
1294. 0741
miami fl pottery
Posted By: pottery2 at 2:29 AM GMT on July 18, 2007.

Rep. Of Trinidad and Tobago, at aprox 11n 61 w


Thanks!
OK 0741.
I'm excited i love the rain!
Posted By: sporteguy03 at 2:26 AM GMT on July 18, 2007. (hide)
WRDQ's 27 Eye on the Tropics Update:
A low pressure system over the Cape Verdes is currently being forecasted by a long range model to develop and bring moisture to the Carribean. Looking to ramp up towards August!


...CMC model? or another?
Is WRDQ any good at forecasting?
Tom Terry's model, I trust him on WRDQ, maybe GFS Long Range?
Julie, yeah, we all do. But in fact the thing has plenty of Sahara dust to contend with, and I would not be suprised to see the convection reduce tomorow. It looks good now though.
In any case you will get showers.
JpHurricane2006 where are you?
JP Might know the model Tom Terry uses I'm not sure?
Pottery, you may be right...flaring up/down. Blob in front of Barbados is diminishing somewhat, but still looks like some heavier stuff to the east and se is still coming her way. imho
True enough, Moonlight.
So is Tom Terry good? (I'm in Alabama - don't know him.)
What part of Barbados are you Julie ?


Tom Terry is a smart Met!
Christ Church by the airport
Tornadofan: What part of Alabama are from? I'm from Satsuma a little town right outside of Mobile,Alabama
evening tornadofan and cat! how you alabamians doing tonight?
Cat Adj - I'm from the Mobile area too. You might remember me. I emailed you once to ask if you were in a car with Cat Adj as a license plate. You said that was not you though.
1313. 0741
that bad day for that area did you live their were charley hit???
Hi Bamatracker. Watching John Ed now. Zzz...
Julie, I am a Lodge boy. From the 60's !!
Used to spend every Saturday at the Crane beach. Was there for 6 yrs. Loved every minute.......
whats ole john ed saying?!!! is he getting the temps right tonight?
No disrespect to anyone, but seems like most ppl here are from Fla.
Not me. I'm not from Fla.
I always like to hear him pronounce Pascagoula.

he said nothing brewing in tropics, not that I put much stock in that.
You should see the crane now there is hardly any beach. It very sad
Hi everyone

Whats up ?
not much kman....how you doing tonight?
Gotta love google earth. Can get a view of anywhere in the world. I now know where trinidad is :}
In September of 1989, a NOAA hurricane hunter airplane intercepted Hurricane Hugo as it approached the Caribbean islands, just before Hugo's destructive rampage through the Caribbean and South Carolina. The crew of the airplane were the first people to encounter the mighty hurricane--and very nearly became its first victims. The mission remains the most harrowing flight ever conducted by the NOAA hurricane hunters. I served as flight meteorologist on that flight, and feel fortunate indeed to be able to tell the story.

Dr. Jeff Masters (Chief Meteorologist, The Weather Underground, Inc.
gee what happened to the beaches in Barbados ?

I spent 3 yrs at Cave Hill doing a degree at UWI and had a great time at Accra beach and Paradise Beach Hotel to name a couple. Not to mention the Pepperpot when the Merrymen were in their prime. Probably dating myself here LOL
What happenned to Crane Beach? I was there 2x.
Hey Bama

Just got back from dinner. Looks like a wave has flared up E of the islands. Seems like all of a sudden the convection has exploded everywhere !
yes I got hit by Charley, but Tom Terry saved alot of people that day for using his gut instinct in the face of adversity.
Just a small clarification to an earlier post. In Barbados, Lodge is a school. Not a secret society.

Hi Kman. Nothing going on in your neck of the woods ?

Julie, what happened to the beach, the sand dunes we used to roll down ??
Bad news all around.
All of the beaches are erroding very badly. Accra seems to be ok for now.
Hi Pottery

Just a little rain from the ULL in our neighbourhood. Still pretty calm over here.
Anything interesting going on in the tropics tonight? anything with a chance of developing.
how do you post a picture? i have a pic of crane that i took last wednesday
Kman, I just knew that we must have crossed paths. The Merrymen @ Pepperpot. Lordy, the times we had in Bim.........
barbadosjulie

I still love Barbados. Come down there every 3 months on business. Do they still do fried chicken on Baxter's road ? LOL
yeah Pottery !

Not to mention all the Canadian tourists ( but that is another story ) !
O yes, but oistins is still the best and the place to be right now.
Just a small clarification to an earlier post. In Barbados, Lodge is a school. Not a secret society.

Hi Kman. Nothing going on in your neck of the woods ?

Julie, what happened to the beach, the sand dunes we used to roll down ??
Bad news all around.
Ooo. Sorry for the double.
Did you know the Beau Brummel, Kman ?
Posted By: pottery2 at 3:15 AM GMT on July 18, 2007.

Ooo. Sorry for the double.
Did you know the Beau Brummel, Kman ?


No, what was that ?
Tornadofan Yes I remember know sorry. I forget sometimes.
Bama how ya doing? hope having a nice night. It seems like the tropics is very quite.
A small, dark bar, up the road from Accra, should have been shut down by the Police even then !!
AH !. I do remember Harry's though ( although I might not admit to it readily )and the famous night club named Alexandria's that was owned by the Trini Noel Charles. Club was named after his wife. LOL
Well gang I think thats it for me for tonight.
Not much weather to talk about but it seems that may change real soon.

Will BB tomorrow.

G'night all
Have a good sleep, Kman! and Pottery.
Alexenandia's was Magnificent !

Anyway, all this memory stuff is exhausting ! I'm going to bed.

Looks like we will get some rain.........
C U MLC
thats a nice swirl coming off the verdes
scwindsaloft - weather.coms new maps gives you more street names than google earth, & weather.com overlays the radar !
Only 5 knots of shear over the wave E of T&T

Interesting with the flare up. BB tomorrow

1351. 0741
t&t?
t and t = Trinidad and Tobago
1353. 0741
that wave. we need to see if go into carribbean or south america
HEY SPORTS GUY YOU FROM PUNTA GORDA ?
Good Night people...I'll check back tomorrow and see what's happening with the waves. Though it's most likely none of them will develop untill August or so...lol
Very quiet in here...maybe because nothing has the potential to develop.

I agree...nothing to watch; no action...lol...not that that's a bad thing..:-P

Well, first off, shear has to lower considerably, and SAL/dry-air must be gone in the atlantic..if so, SST's are definately warm enough and I would expect numerous of cyclones to form very quickly...and rapidly lol.

As of now, as said, nothing brewing. Just maybe need to watch waves come off of Africa, as they seem to becoming more and more impressive. Who knows? Maybe one of them could escape the shear and SAL, though not very likely, it's still possible.

So as of now, just keep an eye on the tropics...I expect in the beggnining of August for the tropics to actually begin lol!

And as said, g'night all...
Posted By: sporteguy03 at 3:06 AM GMT on July 18, 2007.
yes I got hit by Charley, but Tom Terry saved alot of people that day for using his gut instinct in the face of adversity.


it wasn't just Tom Terry. There were several mets down in the Ft Myers area that probably saved hundreds of lives by reporting that Charley was indeed headed for that area and not the Tampa area which was being reported by the NWS.
Maybe one of them could escape the shear and SAL, though not very likely, it's still possible.

Why does everyone think the SAL is heavy? It's not nearly as strong as it has been in recent weeks. The SAL maps show that. Everyday it dies more and more.
The sal would not be there if the water temp allowed develpment. Still just alittle cold out there cv.
See the Canadian model?
morning more waves over africa at a higher north will anything out there have a chance . could you imagine if the sal or sheer this year wasent so high so far this would have been worst than 2005 sehhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

but the one by 30w is looking better . not too much brown in the way today .
Posted By: FormerFloridian at 5:42 AM GMT on July 18, 2007.

Posted By: sporteguy03 at 3:06 AM GMT on July 18, 2007.
yes I got hit by Charley, but Tom Terry saved alot of people that day for using his gut instinct in the face of adversity.

it wasn't just Tom Terry. There were several mets down in the Ft Myers area that probably saved hundreds of lives by reporting that Charley was indeed headed for that area and not the Tampa area which was being reported by the NWS

Robert Van Winkle being the 1st, great job by him and his staff
1364. IKE
The waves out in the Atlantic are looking better and better.
Ike - what do you think of that wave down by SA? It looks as though it will make it past "the curve" and through the islands intact...
1366. IKE
If it goes through the central and western Caribbean, there's 30 to 40 knots of shear there right now. Right now it's in a favorable shear environment. SAL...not sure.

Looks impressive....
All you had to do was watch the radar loops of Charley to see it had deviated from the last published NWS track and was going to hit further South.

Publishing a new track every 6 hours just wasn't very helpful in this case.
NHC forecast this morning noted it as a mid to low level inverted V formation - "from 50W to 65W". That's one heckof a large area...

The dust immediately precedes it, but the area "in the V" has a line in front of it to knock down the dust. Hopefully the line is about as porous as Aaron Brooks' line was in 2003/2004...
Morning. Loads of electricity and flashing sky here at 11 n 61 w, aruond 2:00 am this morning. Not a lot of rain though. Looks like more of the same for the next few days. The wave is well defined, and Barbados and Grenada will be wet and stormy.
1370. IKE
Looks like that wave is moving WNW...which is a more favorable shear environment for now.

This from San Juan, PR....

"By late tonight...moisture ahead of the approaching tropical wave...
currently east of the Lesser Antilles...will begin spreading west
northwest across the local area. Expect wave itself to move west
northwest today...enter the eastern Caribbean tonight...and then
pass across the local area Thursday and Thursday night. GFS
appears to have a decent handle on this feature and therefore
expect good 850-700 mb Theta-E advection Thursday...with nice
Theta-E ridge across the local islands late Thursday afternoon and
then lingering Thursday night and through roughly the first part
of Friday...before drier and more stable air with additional
Saharan dust moves into the local area for later Friday and
Saturday. Given combination of passing tropical wave and
associated deep tropical moisture...favorable upper level
conditions and local effects...expect some fairly active weather
for at least Thursday and Thursday night. That said...feel that
grids and forecasts for Thursday and Thursday night...may need
some upward adjustments with later forecasts.".................


Also, there's a large low pressure area near 15N, 32W...void of much convection for now...moving west.
1371. IKE
Here's Barbados....

"Observed at: Grantley Adams, BR
Elevation: 184 ft
[Heavy Thunderstorms and Rain]
77 F
Heavy Thunderstorm Rain
Humidity: 89%
Dew Point: 73 F
Wind: 24 mph from the East
Pressure: 29.95 in (Steady)
Visibility: 1.2 miles
UV: 1 out of 16
Clouds: Scattered Clouds 1000 ft
Scattered Clouds 1400 ft
Mostly Cloudy 3600 ft
(Above Ground Level)"
The wave from 65 - 50W bears some watching. The shear (according to the SSD plot) reaches 20kts in the central Caribbean. Enough to tear apart something disorganized, but not excessive by any stretch...

It will be interesting to see what Storm has to say about it in his delayed synopsis this morning...
Morning all, just checking in before work. Sorry I missed the discussion last night about the old days in Barbados. I also spent a few years there during the early 70;s going to school. Morning Pottery2.
1374. IKE
If that wave gets far enough north it might get turned north or NE with the approaching east coast trough....in a few days...this weekend.

The CMC/GEM model has...er...nevermind..
wow, lots of Barbados people here :)
I remember being with my family in Bradenton when Charley was coming ashore. We were watching the news and extremely worried of course. As the storm came into radar view and before the mets either noticed the eastward jog or felt comfortable to move their tracks...my 6 year old nephew walked to the TV with a ruler he was using while drawing a picture, held it to the screen and said 'doesn't it look like it's going like this' - holding the ruler in line pointing over Charlotte Harbor, thru Arcadia and toward Orlando. About five minutes later, the mets we were watching out of Tampa started drawing similar lines.

These mets have a tough job when a storm is bearing down like that - but a 6 year old shouldn't be noticing something like that before the on-air mets even mention it IMO. Props to those mets that saw it early, went with it and almost assuredly saved lived.
Hi julie, met observers course at caribbean met institute in Husbands 1974 and aeronautical information and ATC at Adams 1975.
LOL Ike - I saw that this morning and figured it happened while the CMC was in DEEP REM...

The shear forecast at Link shows decreasing shear in the Caribbean over the next 3 days...

Of course, everything that far S has been sucked right back into the ITCZ and shipped west to the Pacific so far...
good morning
impressive wave approachiong the islands. St Lucia is overcast with light rain. with the movement wnw i expect the rough weather to be in our vicinity in about 3hrs. this will be a test for a new drainage system which was recently commissioned in castries
1380. IKE
That low out in the eastern Atlantic near 15N, 32W...is at 1011mb's.
1381. IKE
The wave in the islands is cruising along....

"Tropical wave is slightly tilted along 18n54w 10n57w 3n57w
moving W near 20 kt. Broad wave with low/mid level inverted-v
curvature covering the area from 50w-65w. Scattered moderate/
isolated strong convection is within 90/120 nm of line from
15n52w to the coast of South America near 11n63w including the
Windward Islands...Trinidad and Tobago."......

Posted By: MrNiceville at 7:08 AM CDT on July 18, 2007.
LOL Ike - I saw that this morning and figured it happened while the CMC was in DEEP REM...

The shear forecast at Link shows decreasing shear in the Caribbean over the next 3 days...


I see that on the shear lessening.


Concerning the low at 15N32W:

The NHC mentioned it in the discussion this morning. I think it's interesting on the visible loop because it already has fairly well developed spin. It's odd, though - that low - it doesn't even have a signature on the WV loop. Is that a "naked" llc? U think that's what the CMC was dreaming about???
This i the wave thats currently east of the Antillies, the CMC says it will move due east and on Saturday Hurricane Chantal will form...... we will see



none
The 850 mb vorticity map says that the "thing" on the CMC will come from the wave right now.
1385. Patrap
No threats or areas of concern at the moment...



000
ABNT20 KNHC 180845
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT WED JUL 18 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
This wave would have to survive high shear along the way.....
1387. Patrap
The CMC spits out storms Like a Dalmation spitting out puppies.

I wouldnt give the CMC any credence.
And the CMC has been sooooooooo on top of things this season...

Given the shear forecast, dropping dust levels in the area, and east - west winds, I'd say the wave gets pushed to the Pacific.

IF (and that's a BIG IF) the wave gets better organized, then it MIGHT recurve into the GOM (hope not, personally). I think the AB high is too strong to let this move up the coast like the CMC tells us it should...
1389. Patrap
GOES WV Loop of Tropical Basin

Link
Morning All...Will be lurking today, but, that wave passing through the Lesser Antilles looks pretty healthy this morning.....Any chances for development (other than the NHC no development for the next 48 hours)?...
1391. IKE
Plus the water temps off of the Cape Cod area are in the 60's. I don't believe the CMC on a New England storm.

Now watch it be right!
Morning Pat.

SC - shear is forecast to drop considerably over the next 3 days in the region...
1393. Patrap
Shear is like gas..it comes and goes.
hey patra...im over in your neck of the woods this morning....nice morning in New Orleans.
1395. IKE
Just keep an eye on the island wave...the last one got sheared to death.
1396. Patrap
Xcellent bama. WE up and atum today
1397. Patrap
New Orleans live cams...Link
Morning all! The wave that moved off Africa a couple days ago and then got butchered by the SAL still has spin to it and looks to be moving toward an area of higher convection...any chance this could redevelop?
link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/eatl/loop-rb.html

(I can't figure out how to add a link)
1399. IKE
The ULL over the western Caribbean appears to be moving west-southwest.
that wave is looking impressive morning. Surprised it kept convection this long.
1401. Patrap
How to start your own blog, and add blog images and links

Link

im up on lake pont. near treasure chest casino.
1403. A4Guy
Morning all. Are we all thinking that the waves marching across the Atl are looking healthier...and the ones coming off Africa are pushing slightly further N?
1404. Patrap
Your 10 Minutes from us now. Were on West Esplanade near the Hospital...sw of you.
1405. A4Guy
I am going to Europe from Sept 1 - 16. I live in SoFla, and am paranoid that a 'Cane will show up while I am gone. Gonna be on a cruise ship for 9 of those days with very limited Internet access. Ugh!!
oh ok...thats cool...Ate at Copelands last night....it was great!
The shear in the Caribbean is forecast to intensify over the next 24 hours, but then it drops significantly:

Wind Shear Forecast
1408. Patrap
Beats Popeyes eh?
As a whole A4Guy! What I find most interesting is the ITCZ isn't flat anymore and peaking above 10N, won't be long now. MJO looks like it wants to stick around for a while.
1410. Patrap
Look us up this afternoon. I'll put my Number in you wu-mail. Pat
Thanks for the link Patrap
oh yea...alright well even though im in the big easy its on business and I have to get going. I talk to yall later!!
1413. Patrap
anytime init
1414. IKE
Posted By: MrNiceville at 7:46 AM CDT on July 18, 2007.
The shear in the Caribbean is forecast to intensify over the next 24 hours, but then it drops significantly:


That shear map on WU....the second frame is 12Z Wednesday..which is now....it shows favorable from tonight on, in the Caribbean.
Anybody - what is the difference between a "vertical shear map" and a "wind shear" map? I noticed the "current shear" analysis from SSD has shear at 20kts max over the Caribbean, while the "Atlantic Wind Shear" analysis has the shear at 40+ kts. What am I missing here???
1416. Patrap
Vertical Shear Link
Whoops - you're right, Ike - I need to brush up on my reading skills (LOL)
Sorry if a double post...Seems to me that shear will be the determining factor on survival of the Antillies wave as the WV shows that is it "pushing" the dry air out in front of it as opposed to sucking it in (perhaps a different story if a low were to develop)...
1419. Patrap
Wind shear map explained

Link
Morning all.

Some interesting comments about Barbados in the early 70s.

Like others, I'm watching the wave set to enter the Caribbean with interest. All this increased moisture seems a clear indicator of the MJO we've been learning about this season.

I'm also noticing the way the ITCZ has shifted almost 5 degrees in the last 4 weeks or so. With it near 10N all across the ATL, looks like the wave train is set to roll out of the station . . .

Also interesting to note is the plume of dust NHC mentioned in this morning's discussion. While this is rapidly moving across the ATL, it is still further north than previously seen, and there doesn't seem to be much more of it where it came from (no obvious dust signatures across the western Sahara).

All in all, I think the next 10 days or so could get pretty interesting in a hurry.
As always, thanks, Pat...

I guess "wind shear" and "vertical wind shear" are the same thing. I am curious as to why the NOAA and CIMSS wind shear maps differ so greatly...
WOW -

Thank goodness CMC is off its rocker.
Did you guys see the Monster it is predicting to spin up to Boston Area?
Personally, I think it's just another crack pipe dream that the CMC had overnight...

No other models show it spinning up and I personally think the AB high is too strong to allow something like that to migrate to the north side...
Actually NOGAPS Shows a much lighter disturbance up heading that direction around the same time. Good to hear that Conditions don't favor development.
Time for the 3 s's folks - gotta head to the office sometime...

Have a great day - see you all LATE tonight...
OK - I lied - had to get one more in.

Just looked at the CATL visible loop. That low around 15N32W appears to acutally be drawing moisture out of the ITCZ. Can it "feed" on the ITCZ like that? If so, that's the one to watch over the next 3 days...
Posted By: MrNiceville at 1:17 PM GMT on July 18, 2007.
OK - I lied - had to get one more in.

Just looked at the CATL visible loop. That low around 15N32W appears to acutally be drawing moisture out of the ITCZ. Can it "feed" on the ITCZ like that? If so, that's the one to watch over the next 3 days...

I wondered that too, certainly is looking like we may have something to watch? I know, I know, don't get excited. LOL
From Dr. Master's Current Blog:

Steering currents
"The steering current pattern for June and the first half of July featured a pattern much like we saw in 2006, with an active jet stream bringing many troughs of low pressure off the East Coast of the U.S."


Wanna see what he's talking about? Look at this latest time lapse animation of the GOES IR Hurricane Sector imagery from 06/01/2007 - 07/12/2007.

Those troughs, they're literally one after another.

Hehehe - if you watch the in the lower right corner - you can see 96L just make it into the frame (toward the end of the loop) and get blown apart...

Appropriate that they use Jurassic Park theme for historical info...
Morning everybody.
im back
Nr Nice - you are going to be late for work!
LOL
Late? I work flex hours - I just stay later (much to my wife's chagrin)...
ben in islemorada in the florida keys for the last week and hallf caught a lot of big fish but i am back now. i heard all about bill proenza being fired the typhoon and earthquake in japan and the blob in the antillies i am currently checking shear and models.
1435. gthsii
CycloneOZ: that was awesome. best 5 minutes i've spent killing time at work. thanks for that, just amazing to watch weeks worth of weather...kind of puts it all into perspective, watching the patterns, storms flare up. i live in sofla and its amazing to watch the peninsula just go poof with clouds
shaer is low over the wave in the antillies and convection is concentrating near the northern part in a circlular form. if it gets a little better organized some slow development may be possible otherwise it go poof.
Taz what do you think about that low at 15N32W? Could it potentially suck moisture out of the ITCZ (as MrNice was saying) and develop?
Thanks Mr. Nice and gthsii!

You guys ain't seen nuthin' from me yet! :)

This weekend...I'm releasing the 2005 GOES IR HURRICANE SECTOR time lapse animation FROM JUNE - NOVEMBER 2005!

It's almost finished...I just got November to go and it's done. You folks should see it. It's truly remarkable to see so many storms spinning around.

I'm as excited as I can be. I've got special audio prepared for the show. This one will not be updated. It will be the historical copy.

To save things from youtube.com, simply get to the video you want to save, type "kiss" in front on "youtube.com" (ex: this video here would be "http://www.kissyoutube.com/watch?v=kZajlV0E5V8". Press the "Get It" button and save the file with a filename you'll recognize and the suffix ".flv" **IMPORTANT YOU DO THAT**. Finally, load the .flv file into a video converter that can handle flash videos and then convert it to an mpg. It's really that easy.

See ya'll again this weekend! Till then...have fun!
: initforwaves i am not sure but i dont think it will do march of any thing right now
Now the fun begins. There are two areas of interest at this point. both are vigorous well formed tropical waves on in the antillies and one in the atlantic. these are the kinds of things that can instigate tropical cyclone development. if we saw these same things in the antillies a week from now we would have a depression. However althought conditions over the antillies system a favorable now they won't stay that way for more than another 24 hr. and then i think this disturbance will fizzle. the other one is the wave in the entral antlantic which has alot of dry air issues. However if it can maintain present form and convection until it reaches the antillies sometime next week it could have a chance. sometime during the first week of agust i expect to see one if not two tropical depressions form.
One last thing before I go:

Always remember this!

No matter how destructive weather may be, no matter how sudden or terrifying earthquakes can be...if we didn't have those things, our planet's core would be dead and our water and atmosphere would be ripped away.

People will tell you that storms and earthquakes are signs of the end-times. Certainly, these things should remind each of us as individuals that our time here is short and in a state of constant flux.

Storms and earthquakes are signs...but not of the "end-times." They're signs that your planet is as alive as you are!

That is why I find these phenomena so interesting, captivating, and compelling.

See ya'll again this weekend.

Go out there and enjoy your planet!
Cyclone0z... Touching... ... ... ...
The CMC is just to funny next thing you know it will predict a cat5 in boston.This model folks is no better then the NAM when it comes to forcasting tropical cyclones.Atleast in my opinion.Adrian

NOTE-Its done very poor on genesis this season.
Cyclone: Well put. You are so right. Has anyone seen the latest position of the Bermuda high and where the jet stream is now? It would be interesting if the trend Dr. Masters was referring to above has any signs of changing or are we going to be locked into the steering patterns of 2006. Take care.
Posted By: hurricane23 at 2:08 PM GMT on July 18, 2007.

The CMC is just to funny next thing you know it will predict a cat5 in boston.This model folks is no better then the NAM when it comes to forcasting tropical cyclones.Atleast in my opinion.Adrian

NOTE-Its done very poor on genesis this season.



H23 - I see some agreement with NGPS though. Although it shows a much weaker distrubance, it is in the same area around the same time.

Side question - When was the last time a Major storm hit Boston?
Side question - When was the last time a Major storm hit Boston?

From the top of my head besides the 1938 hurricane i remember Carol back in 1954 which had winds of 100 mph and produced a surge of 8-13 feet above mean tide.

Here's a good page on hurricane carol.
1448. gthsii
I guess Bob and Gloria from the 80s-90s dont count as major storms. i lived in boston at the time and remember sleeping thru both of 'em
Here's a page on BOB and Gloria.
Hey Taz. What do you think is going to happen with that wave over the lesser antillies?
any system that forms in that area as a disturbance will be purley extrattropical in nature. if anything hit boston it would be an sts or extratropical baroclinic storm. It is remotley possible that a hybrid storm could form but i hgighly doubt that we would see a fully flegded tropical system hit boston. chances of that happening: less than 1%
Good Info thanks 23.

LOL - Only thing I rememeber about 1985 (I was 6) is that my Dad took my Grandma instead of me to game seven of the Royals/Cards series....
however at a later date in the hurricane season it would be more possible but not until late agust do i think that something tropical in nature could form and hit boston.
1454. crownwx
Last hurricane with a major impact on Boston was Hurricane Carol in 1954.
Posted By: crownwx at 10:32 AM EDT on July 18, 2007. (hide)
Last hurricane with a major impact on Boston was Hurricane Carol in 1954.

I nailed it.
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur/zooms/WMBds32.png

Good morning, all.
...wave behind the spinning low. 2nd low about to form here? or just itcz action?

...and why are we talking about Boston. There's no danger there with this high sitting the way it is? Did I miss something in the night?
let me clairfy some things.First of all can you guys see my comments or are they being blocked? second cmc is dead wrong as it has been all year. third of all whoever said that ngps showed a dsiturbance hitting boston was dead wrong ngps shows absoulotuley nothing. fourth of all niether does gfs. 5th of all it would be extremely unlikley if on the miracle chance something did form in the atlantic like that that it would hit boston ethier it would move west into florida or sharply recurve out to sea it is remotley possible it could move into one of the carolinas but this is not an issue as this disturbance will not form cmc is wrong. no offenses meant to anyone.
Link new blog
no moonlight wishcasting is going on again i moving to new blog.
Texascanecaster -
No wishcasting is going on. I simply pointed out that CMC (even though unreliable) showed something heading that way. NGPS shows some (albeit slight) agreement. Then I asked for opnions. Apologies (as I am new) if this is considered wishcasting. Trust me - I live in SE Florida - I would be thrilled if NO canes came this year.

texascanecaster...earlier you said if a storm would come around the Boston area in July, it wouldn't be tropical in nature. Well, around the same time last year we had Beryl, as a 50 mph *tropical* storm hit Nantucket, Mass.