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Atlantic Disturbance 96L Still 96L But Threat to US Increases

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:41 PM GMT on August 23, 2014

(By Steve Gregory - Substituting for Dr. Masters who is on Vacation.)

There’s been little change overnight in 96L, with RECON reports indicating a broad, disorganized circulation center with a surface pressure near 1007mb along the north coast of Hispaniola near 20.8N/71.7W. Mid-upper level winds also indicate that the larger scale circulation field was not significantly impacted by the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola, and has been moving on a generally West/West-Northwest course at around 20Kts, though a somewhat more Northwesterly (310°) heading seems to have developed over the last few hours. Although there continues to be large scale outflow associated with the high level anti-cyclone sitting atop the developing system,, there are no distinct outflow channel jets; so any initial intensification of the system later today or on Sunday will likely start out on the slow side. While wind shear of 15-20Kts continues to be of moderate intensity across large areas of the system’s structure, an area of lighter shear (<10Kts) close to the circulation center continues to move in tandem with the systems primary circulatory vortex.

The overall satellite signature continues to slowly improve, with a somewhat more symmetrical appearance, and large scale curvature especially noteworthy in the E-SE quadrant where hints of a ‘feeder’ band type structure appears to be developing.

With the system embedded in a moist environment and no significantly drier air noted on the periphery of the system, dry air should not be a hindrance to intensification during the next 48 hours. In addition, the developing system is, or soon will be, moving over very warm waters, with SST’s over 29°C (~85°F) – well above that needed to support hurricane intensities. However, if the system should slow to a crawl or even go stationary later Sunday as forecast by many models, upwelling of cooler sub-surface waters could prove significant, slowing the rate of intensification appreciably.

Since yesterday, there have been major shifts to the forecast tracks – especially after Sunday – raising the risk level for the entire eastern US from Florida to New England – with about equal odds that the potential storm will impact the coast or turn out to sea. This is not a surprise since track and intensity forecasts are notorious for major shifts for systems that are still in the formative stages. Ironically, the CMC forecast, which was consistently forecasting the system to track across south Florida, has now shifted dramatically to that shown by many of the major model suites, while the more reliable track forecast models have now shifted westward, much closer to the coast. The spread of forecast tracks is now quite large – again, a typical feature of forecasts for systems still forming. The forecast challenge has been unusually high for this system, not just because it has yet to really develop and has tracked across Hispaniola (a landmass notorious for ‘destroying’ even the most well developed and intense hurricanes) but because of the unusually high track sensitivity to a ‘weakness’ in the east-west sub-tropical ridgeline that extends from the central Atlantic to the Gulf coast. While the models continue to show a break between the high pressure center in the central Atlantic and the one near the Gulf coast during the next 36 hours, the resulting TROF within this break will be relatively weak, and will begin to dissipate staring late Monday. The exact timing of this ‘break’ – and the exact location and strength of 96L during the next 72 hours will determine exactly where and when (if ?) the system turns northward. Prior model runs were in generally good agreement that the system would turn northward when it was still about 300NM east of Florida, while the most recent model runs show a far more gradual recurvature – with some of the more reliable models showing the storm getting very close to the coast before beginning to turn northward, and are all calling for the storm to be moving much slower, with the system not expected to be near the US coast for another 4 or even 5 days.

The intensity forecasts are equally difficult, although they have continued to be quite consistent with each other and between succeeding model runs. The odds are relatively high (70%-80%) the system will become a tropical storm either late today or on Sunday, with a fairly slow rate of intensification to near CAT 1 intensity on Monday or Tuesday. This continues to be a reasonably good forecast scenario all things considered, and a CAT 1 intensity threat for the east coast of Florida northward to the Carolinas is quite real – albeit a still very uncertain one.

All things considered, I must admit this is one of the more ‘challenging’ forecasts I’ve come across in my many decades of forecasting.



Fig 1: Early morning VIS imagery shows a system still trying to get ‘its act together’ with a better organized signature than yesterday, but a still poorly organized low level circulation. Some hints of ‘feeder’ type bands are seen extending into the southern CARIB south and east of the ‘center’ witch should provide an ample flow of moisture into the system assuming it finally intensifies into a strong cyclone.



Fig 2: The Total Precipitable water (TPW) analysis show 96L surrounded by moist air, with a deep moisture plume extending from the deep tropics over northern SOAMER across the CARIB into the mid-level vortex circulation that is 96L. This should continue to supply high atmospheric moisture content to the system as it develops during the next few days.



Fig 3: Wind Shear analysis (mid levels) shows moderate shear conditions in the 15-20Kt range in the vicinity of the primary low-mid level circulation. Much lower shear conditions are seen just south-southwest of the mid level circulation field. The shear analysis is automated, so the lower values shown may not be very precise in the delineation of its aerial extent. However, this wind shear ‘couplet’ has been moving in tandem with the disturbance, and since none of the models are forecasting adverse shear conditions ahead of the systems’ projected track – shear should not be a major hindrance to intensification for the next 72 hours.



Fig 4: There’s been no significant change to yesterday’s development of a high level (~200mb) anti-cyclone which is providing decent outflow for the developing system. Though no distinct outflow jet channels have developed, the current level of outflow does support a CAT 1 intensity storm.



Fig 5: The lower level steering winds clearly show the east-west orientated sub-tropical ridge from the central Atlantic westward to the Gulf coast region, along with a break (TROF) between the two separate High pressure centers. This TROF / Ridge-line is the primary feature set that will ultimately determine the track taken by the developing cyclone. Both the intensity of the developing system and the exact location and impact of the TROF on the sub-tropical ridge will determine how the steering currents evolve and ultimately guide the the cyclone over the next several days. If the TROF weakens quickly enough, allowing the ridge to rebuild westward into the SE US – the cyclone will track into the SE coast of the US. If the TROF/ridge weakness remains in place – the cyclone will recurve and turn northward before reaching the coast.



Fig 6: Early cycle model runs are in general agreement on the track of the developing cyclone for the next 36-48 hours, but the spread between solutions beyond then has grown quite large since yesterday; indicative of the difficulty the models are having in determining the subtle-changes and inter-play between the sub-tropical ridge, the TROF off the east coast, and the cyclone itself.



Fig 7: Intensity forecasts have been fairly consistent over the past few days - seemingly unaffected by the track changes - with slow intensification expected during the next 72 hrs to CAT 1 Hurricane force by early next week.

I’ll have another brief update late this afternoon after additional RECON and SAT imagery can be reviewed, along with all the 12Z global model run output.

Steve

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting BahaHurican:
Except trackwise. Track's very similar indeed.
It is but that's probably because Irene at least resembled a storm most of the time.
Quoting 483. Maineweatherguy20023:

WHY is levis site not refreshing with the recon data? WHY?


Use this instead.

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/live/
Quoting 492. VAbeachhurricanes:

New suite, hard to tell


Recon has not had a chance to insert data yet. Those tracks are probably worthless.
Quoting 483. Maineweatherguy20023:

WHY is levis site not refreshing with the recon data? WHY?


Found a small bug. Will update again as soon as the :50 past the hour set comes in.
As Hurricane Ivan began getting close to Jamaica, there was a big "H" over the Gulf off shore of Texas.

It was that "H" that had the models turning Ivan into Tampa.

What the models did not realize is that the big "H"s in that position will lift towards the four corners area most times than not.

That "H" did...and the rest is history.
I lurk here a lot but I do wish to comment on this 96L. Many good points have been made but looking at the satellite images, it seems clear to me that the southern half of the disturbance, moisture-wise, is being torn off by Hispaniola, leaving only the north and northeast sections of the system relatively intact. If this is the case, then 96L will have to build up the southern section again before it can develop into anything other than a widespread mass of thunderstorms and rain.
Quoting 477. SevoReb:



I think that 96L will miss the TROF and be blocked by the GOM high

It's elongated north end sheared off by the TROF and LLC continues west NW
Quoting 499. sar2401:

We just have too many models.


I wonder if there's a site where you can layer the models to declutter them .
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
244 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE ON-GOING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED NEAR HISPANIOLA
CONTINUES TO TRACK SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST AND STILL DOES NOT
EXHIBIT A CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE. A LATE MORNING ASCAT
SCATTEROMETER PASS ALSO SHOWED NO SIGN OF A CIRCULATION. AS OF
200 PM THIS AFTERNOON THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WAS NOT
CONSIDERING ISSUING ADVISORIES BUT STILL EXPECTED OVERALL
CONDITIONS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM
LATER TODAY OR ON SUNDAY.

EXCEPT FOR THE VERY SHORT TERM...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE GLOBAL MODELS...THEIR ENSEMBLES AND ADDITIONAL SUITE OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE PRODUCTS. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN THE SUITE OF GUIDANCE IN A GRADUAL NORTHWEST MOVEMENT
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND MAY BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY LATE
SUNDAY OR INTO MONDAY. AFTER THAT POINT IS WHERE THE REAL
UNCERTAINTY LIES AS THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DISTURBANCE AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. THE DISTURBANCE COULD TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND REMAIN
EAST OF THE BAHAMAS IF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH OR THE DISTURBANCE COULD CONTINUE ON A MORE NORTHWEST TRACK
IF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS THE MORE DOMINANT FACTOR. SO THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE DISTURBANCE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES CONTRIBUTE...AMONGST OTHER FACTORS...TO THE
OVERALL UNCERTAINTY OF THE FORECAST MOVEMENT OF THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE.

AS FAR AS IMPACTS ON SOUTH FLORIDA...OBVIOUSLY THE PRESENT
UNCERTAINTY MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO ASSESS ALL THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
BUT BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SO FAR THE IMPACTS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY WILL BE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WITH THE
GREATEST IMPACTS EXPECTED ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS. WITH THAT THE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST
BEACHES. THROUGH MONDAY THE FORECAST INDICATES THAT WINDS AND
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. ANY ADDITIONAL IMPACTS
DUE TO EXPECTED WEATHER ARE ALSO HARD TO ASSESS DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY. BUT LATER ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST BUT SEVERE WEATHER SO FAR IS
NOT EXPECTED. ANY ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL IMPACTS AFTER MONDAY ARE
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THERE IS A BETTER
FORECAST CONSENSUS TO HAVE A MORE REALISTIC ASSESSMENT OF THE
POTENTIAL HAZARDS.
Quoting 472. forecaster1:

Very clearly the center is almost over water. Just off the nw coast of Haiti. It should wrap up fast once it is over water completely.. you van vaguely see storm surrounding it and once free of land the storms south of the island will vanish.... or not..


Ehh? The center is just south of the Turks and Caicos.
Quoting 503. hydrus:

Recon has not had a chance to insert data yet. Those tracks are probably worthless.
once this gets a LLC models should get a better handle. pattern so fragile.
Tend to agree. It never really seemed to be a N Fla to SC threat to begin with. It was either crossing Southern Fl in to the GOM; or headed N (guess OBX is still an outside chance) and NE. The BAM suite is beginning to shift back to the E and I would expect the others to follow. At the same time, that theory will become all the more convincing the further we progress along it actually unfolding.

Iit was three days ago when we were hearing the cries of 20-30 inches of rain for florida....

before that.....katrina was heard

i think i've also heard new england......north carolina.......alabama....and even texas....

so by now i'm a bit hoarse.......but let me say again....until we actually get a storm.......track is pretty much worthless
Quoting wxhatt:


Okay, no more bolding, LOL.

Was refering to the position and general direction of movement. I know this has a long way to go in order to resemble irene at that position.
The track is similar in that Irene and 96L were in a relatively similar location. Irene always had a good convective envelope. I guess we'll see about 96L's ultimate track.
A few TS WINDS!!!!
Quoting 415. sunlinepr:

Just to share......I created this animated GIF with gyazo.com. Thanks for the blogger who posted an animation. Visit the page, download an application and you car record animations directly from your browser from those places where there are no GIFs to copy and post here. If we all use it, that will make the blog more animated.

Attention: I don't have any relationship with the product or service and my intention is not to sell anything. I just noticed that someone posted an animation and made the investigation.




I use Gyazo too, but mainly for taking snippets off of radar images and other things which cannot be copy and pasted. The GIF feature works great, however.
Take note of the bold:

EXCEPT FOR THE VERY SHORT TERM...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE GLOBAL MODELS...THEIR ENSEMBLES AND ADDITIONAL SUITE OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE PRODUCTS. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE GENERAL
AGREEMENT IN THE SUITE OF GUIDANCE IN A GRADUAL NORTHWEST MOVEMENT
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND MAY BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY LATE
SUNDAY OR INTO MONDAY. AFTER THAT POINT IS WHERE THE REAL
UNCERTAINTY LIES AS THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DISTURBANCE AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. THE DISTURBANCE COULD TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND REMAIN
EAST OF THE BAHAMAS IF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH OR THE DISTURBANCE COULD CONTINUE ON A MORE NORTHWEST TRACK
IF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS THE MORE DOMINANT FACTOR.
SO THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE DISTURBANCE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
SYNOPTIC FEATURES CONTRIBUTE...AMONGST OTHER FACTORS...TO THE
OVERALL UNCERTAINTY OF THE FORECAST MOVEMENT OF THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE.

This is why there is so much uncertainty.
Air Force and NOAA going out there now...
.

Cold up here today.

Edit: Dunno, maybe I should've kept the text. How is your site handling the load, Levi?
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
New suite, hard to tell



If that its up being the center recurve looks like a good bet but we shall see. That swirl appears to be heading NW.



The things I consider to have the biggest impact on this developing system are:

1. The westward flow that is nudging at it right now.

2. That big "H" in the Gulf.

3. That weak trough to the north.

If the big "H" lifts up, the trough loses...imo.
Quoting 508. weatherskink:



I wonder if there's a site where you can layer the models to declutter them .


Link
Quoting weatherskink:


I wonder if there's a site where you can layer the models to declutter them .
InstantWeatherMaps is one but you have to pay to do so.


Really like the GFS and the GFDL runs at 2pm, watch our system get push back west hard as that high builds in quickly then the re enforcing front should lift it out, any US landfall is more likely North of Florida at this point.
Quoting 512. ricderr:

Tend to agree. It never really seemed to be a N Fla to SC threat to begin with. It was either crossing Southern Fl in to the GOM; or headed N (guess OBX is still an outside chance) and NE. The BAM suite is beginning to shift back to the E and I would expect the others to follow. At the same time, that theory will become all the more convincing the further we progress along it actually unfolding.

Iit was three days ago when we were hearing the cries of 20-30 inches of rain for florida....

before that.....katrina was heard

i think i've also heard new england......north carolina.......alabama....and even texas....

so by now i'm a bit hoarse.......but let me say again....until we actually get a storm.......track is pretty much worthless



The bigger point I was making Ric, and yes I know this one has more than average level of uncertainty, is that over the past few days the models have made a fairly well defined V on the map. Yes, a couple runs here and there have been in the middle portion of the top of the V; but not many. My theory is that it either goes across S Fla; or it remains off most of the E coast (excluding OBX) and OTS...To be clear, it is just a theory.
Link

Hurricane Rita is a good analog. If you look at the weakness and the se ridge. It missed it and went west
Miss Piggy is about to exit the east coast of Florida. Should be there in the next couple of hours.
Euro 120 hours.

Boris TCR is out for the ones that care. He didn't make landfall in Mexico so the only landfalling storm in 2013 of the Epac is Iselle in the big island.
Quoting 506. LariAnn:

I lurk here a lot but I do wish to comment on this 96L. Many good points have been made but looking at the satellite images, it seems clear to me that the southern half of the disturbance, moisture-wise, is being torn off by Hispaniola, leaving only the north and northeast sections of the system relatively intact. If this is the case, then 96L will have to build up the southern section again before it can develop into anything other than a widespread mass of thunderstorms and rain.


I see this as well. The rain from the low cloud deck streaming north from Hispanola can only deplete the moisture of the atmosphere. I don't know if it represents mid-level drying that I hear is the most detrimental to convection, but it seems to explain the dearth of convection south of the lowest pressures.
Quoting 499. sar2401:

We just have too many models.


Yes, it seems they added a few for this system especially. In the past few days, models that i never heard off popped up out of nowhere :)
533. FOREX
Just got home from work. Where is the supposed center located? thanks.
I guess you really gotta be in to the weather.

Watching formation and changes minute by minute is like watching the grass grow!
The bigger point I was making Ric, and yes I know this one has more than average level of uncertainty, is that over the past few days the models have made a fairly well defined V on the map. Yes, a couple runs here and there have been in the middle portion of the top of the V; but not many. My theory is that it either goes across S Fla; or it remains off most of the E coast (excluding OBX) and OTS...To be clear, it is just a theory.


yo bro...no disrespect intended....and truly.....track has always been more important to this blog than intensity and even formation....

HurricaneTracker App 2m

The #Hurricane Hunters have found a weak, but better defined low level center compared to previous missions. We'll see what NHC does at 5PM

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 18:49Z
Date: August 23, 2014
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)
Mission Purpose: Investigate fourth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 23

18:50:00Z 22.217N 71.250W 973.1 mb
(~ 28.74 inHg) 310 meters
(~ 1,017 feet) 1008.0 mb
(~ 29.77 inHg) - From 155° at 26 knots
(From the SSE at ~ 29.9 mph) 24.3°C
(~ 75.7°F) 21.4°C
(~ 70.5°F) 26 knots
(~ 29.9 mph) 34 knots*
(~ 39.1 mph*) 1 mm/hr*
(~ 0.04 in/hr*) 34.0 knots* (~ 39.1 mph*)
Tropical Storm* 130.8%*
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
HDOB Observations
Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic
At 18:40:30Z (first observation), the observation was 53 miles (86 km) to the NW (322°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR).
At 18:50:00Z (last observation), the observation was 53 miles (85 km) to the N (352°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR).

Please note, suspect coordinates are not plotted.
538. beell
still did not see any pure west winds, not closed yet
Highest winds found so far are around 37 mph. Nothing has hit 40 yet.
Quoting 541. Michfan:

Highest winds found so far are around 37 mph. Nothing has hit 40 yet.


they did find 40-45mph winds earlier
In reviewing the water vapor imagery 96L is not in a very favorable location. It is sandwiched between two ULLs with the small one west of 96L currently shearing the system and also keeping it from developing. It still appears to have an elongated appearance in a north-south orientation. The trough to the north appears to be fairly weak and it does not look strong enough to turn the system northward, but that is a difficult call given 96L still does not have a LLC and is overall poorly organized at this time. My bet is that the system will move slowly and likely continue WNW and possibly reach S Florida next week. The trough to the north is forecast to be moving out late Monday allowing the east-west ridge to rebuild next week as well. This system has at least a 50-50 chance of getting into the GOM.
Quoting 510. StormJunkie:



Ehh? The center is just south of the Turks and Caicos.


Is this now fact?

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 18:59Z
Date: August 23, 2014
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)
Mission Purpose: Investigate fourth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 24
0Z 21.783N 71.150W 973.2 mb
(~ 28.74 inHg) 306 meters
(~ 1,004 feet) 1007.7 mb
(~ 29.76 inHg) - From 156° at 24 knots
(From the SSE at ~ 27.6 mph) 24.0°C
(~ 75.2°F) 22.6°C
(~ 72.7°F) 25 knots
(~ 28.7 mph) 33 knots
(~ 37.9 mph) 3 mm/hr
(~ 0.12 in/hr) 31.7 knots (~ 36.4 mph)
132.0%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
HDOB Observations
Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic
At 18:50:30Z (first observation), the observation was 52 miles (83 km) to the N (353°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR).
At 19:00:00Z (last observation), the observation was 22 miles (36 km) to the N (358°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR).

Please note, suspect coordinates are not plotted.
Quoting 530. allancalderini:

Boris TCR is out for the ones that care. He didn't make landfall in Mexico so the only landfalling storm in 2013 of the Epac is Iselle in the big island.


Looks like TA or someone else needs to fix Wikipedia then:

Although initial forecasts suggested that Boris would meander for several days over open waters,[35] the storm quickly tracked northward, bringing it to a landfall near Chiapas, Mexico at around 0600 UTC on June 4.

TS Boris
I see the 18Z has it getting close to the carolinas then out to sea it goes....how is that possible if High pressure is going to build over the area there ?

Quoting 529. Patrap:


For clarification only

Quoting 542. Hurricanes101:



they did find 40-45mph winds earlier


The current flight hasn't. 37.9 is the highest so far.
Can we PLEASE get an Invest at 5 pm on the wave at 25W? I looks pretty damn good!
Seems storms this year like to follow the subtropical ridge around the merry go round.

96L is still racing westward i see. Is it properly stacked? I can't believe in the models until there is a defined COC.
Quoting 548. Grothar:

For clarification only




It's a pretty flower!
Quoting 549. Michfan:



The current flight hasn't. 37.9 is the highest so far.


yes they did, right after they found the WSW winds, they found winds 40-45mph just north of there
Center south of the turks and Caicos looks like our LLC there is still some multiple vorticities out there but this one is the best looking one so far. Hopefully, there can finally be a center to initialize the models.
If 96L stalls out over the Bahamas than that will make this blog go crazy.
Quoting 532. vlaming:



Yes, it seems they added a few for this system especially. In the past few days, models that i never heard off popped up out of nowhere :)

I know - the only one initially going west was the Canadian model - I had never heard of that one.

Still think until we have an actual LLC the models will be all over the place. The main thing I keep seeing from those more knowledgeable than I am, is that the longer it takes to develop, the more likely it is to go west.
Quoting 548. Grothar:

For clarification only



Still looks like landfall 5 miles west of Wilmington as Cat 4, or a very weak Cat 5. No changes anticipated.
anybody know the drawing program Levi uses in his videos?
I think the NHC should at least give us a TD at 5p!
Quoting 553. Michfan:



It's a pretty flower!
fish storm to
562. beell
Popping in briefly..but I see the 12z Navgem still has the same run..I saw the GFS/HWRF also..going to be an interesting couple of days..

12z JMA is showing an Outerbanks encounter..



Glad all the local METs are saying this is not a Florida event. If it blows up the way some models are showing, I hope it continues to show no threat to the US.
Quoting 554. Hurricanes101:



yes they did, right after they found the WSW winds, they found winds 40-45mph just north of there


Nope



Quoting 553. Michfan:



It's a pretty flower!


Thank you Gro for that riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.
Quoting 533. FOREX:

Just got home from work. Where is the supposed center located? thanks.
Poll

96L will most likely go:

1) OTS

2) Brush somewhere along the East Coast

3) GOM

Quoting 539. Hurricanes101:

still did not see any pure west winds, not closed yet
no west winds at all its a tropical wave
Quoting 570. wxhatt:

Poll

96L will most likely go:

1) OTS

2) Brush somewhere along the East Coast

3) GOM



#2
How do you get that ?

Quoting 558. eyewallblues:

Still looks like landfall 5 miles west of Wilmington as Cat 4, or a very weak Cat 5. No changes anticipated.
Quoting 566. Michfan:



Nope






Was reading the data decoder page and they showed Tropical storm force winds at the surface
575. beell
Quoting 562. beell:




Probably the most likely place for a vortmax-in the NE quad of the broader circulation.

Some comments here seem to think CONUS may be spared a direct hit. I certainly hope so but until there is a COC all bets are off.
Quoting 485. Tazmanian:




i wounder if Kermit the Frog is up there with miss piggy or did she dump him over board




this time she decided to go with this guy

Link
Quoting 570. wxhatt:

Poll

96L will most likely go:

1) OTS

2) Brush somewhere along the East Coast

3) GOM




Personally I think its going to brush the east coast somewhere as the trough flattens out. I don't see it digging far enough south to steer it OTS, but that is up in the air because no one really knows. It is a toss up at this point. We just have to wait for the pattern to develop.
Quoting 563. ncstorm:

Popping in briefly..but I see the 12z Navgem still has the same run..I saw the GFS/HWRF also..going to be an interesting couple of days..

12z JMA is showing an Outerbanks encounter..




out to sea
Looking at satellite imagery and recon info it looks like 96L may soon be a TD/TS. Based on where it looks like the center is and its movement of generally WNW/NW (disclaimer might actually just be WNW but developing LLCs look like they have a more northerly component when forming) I think that any potential impact from 96L will be in the Carolinas. Never say never but I think the High in GOM will be too far east to allow a Florida landfall. I think there will be more threats through September similar to this. Very complex pattern this year. Its gonna be a strange season with I believe one or 2 surprises
12z GFDL Ensembles


Quoting 570. wxhatt:

Poll

96L will most likely go:

1) OTS

2) Brush somewhere along the East Coast

3) GOM

w
Question is, what happens after it takes out Wilmington?Answer: Eastern LI as strong Cat 2. Confidence is extremely high.
Quoting 521. nrtiwlnvragn:



Link


Much thanks :)
12z NCEP Ensembles
I for one never Poll on a weekend, as it can lead to chafing
well this storm could go anywhere and most coastal area's from texas to maine and yeah keeper's area too lol..should keep up to date on this storm huh
Quoting 574. Hurricanes101:



Was reading the data decoder page and they showed Tropical storm force winds at the surface


http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/URNT15/KNHC /

37.9
I agree with the track all the way to the point where it shows a sudden right turn

Quoting 584. ncstorm:

12z GFDL Ensembles



Quoting Grothar:
For clarification only


Thanks for that.
Now, at least, we know exactly what's what, what ?

Sunny and still down here, but some showers to the north over the hills.
What we have is like a wet dry-season, rather that a true wet-season, so far.
Peculiar weather.
Quoting 579. hurricanes2018:

out to sea


going to gulf of mexico..... woshhhhhhhhhh
Yeah, er, right dere.

Quoting 591. Michfan:



http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/URNT15/KNHC /

37.9


I can read, it was a while back, just after they found the WSW wind. I am trying to find a way to go back and get it, but have to find one
Quoting LargoFl:
So it's corrected back to TS winds.
Quoting 592. weatherlover94:

I agree with the track all the way to the point where it shows a sudden right turn


why such a sharp hook NE? another trough? even if it misses first trough, models still show it missing the U.S
18:38:00Z 21.967N 71.750W 973.0 mb
(~ 28.73 inHg) 304 meters
(~ 997 feet) 1007.7 mb
(~ 29.76 inHg) - From 149 at 24 knots
(From the SSE at ~ 27.6 mph) 20.7C*
(~ 69.3F*) -* 25 knots
(~ 28.7 mph) 39 knots
(~ 44.8 mph) 11 mm/hr
(~ 0.43 in/hr) 37.4 knots (~ 43.1 mph)
Tropical Storm


18:38:30Z 21.983N 71.733W 972.9 mb
(~ 28.73 inHg) 307 meters
(~ 1,007 feet) 1007.6 mb
(~ 29.75 inHg) - From 150 at 25 knots
(From the SSE at ~ 28.7 mph) 22.1C*
(~ 71.8F*) -* 26 knots
(~ 29.9 mph) 39 knots
(~ 44.8 mph) 10 mm/hr
(~ 0.39 in/hr) 37.5 knots (~ 43.1 mph)
Tropical Storm


There we go, I found them


I'm still betting that it dips under the opening and goes WNW thru S FL
Quoting 596. Hurricanes101:



I can read, it was a while back, just after they found the WSW wind. I am trying to find a way to go back and get it, but have to find one


I've been searching for it on the live page as well but have yet to see it. Not trying to be argumentative because i'd like to see it, if it in fact is there.
Quoting wxhatt:
Poll

96L will most likely go:

1) OTS

2) Brush somewhere along the East Coast

3) GOM

3
Strengthening

Time: 19:20:00Z
Coordinates: 21.5167N 72.0167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 972.7 mb (~ 28.72 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 298 meters (~ 978 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1006.4 mb (~ 29.72 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 185° at 14 knots (From the S at ~ 16.1 mph)
Air Temp: 23.5°C (~ 74.3°F)
Dew Pt: 22.0°C (~ 71.6°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 17 knots (~ 19.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 23 knots (~ 26.4 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (~ 0.04 in/hr)
if this verifies,could be a kinda stormy windy day on the east coast of florida..............................
Quoting 605. HurricaneAndre:

3

i agree.... its already west of 12z ecmwf position.

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 19:19Z
Date: August 23, 2014
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)
Mission Purpose: Investigate fourth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 26

19:20:00Z 21.517N 72.017W 972.7 mb
(~ 28.72 inHg) 298 meters
(~ 978 feet) 1006.4 mb
(~ 29.72 inHg) - From 185° at 14 knots
(From the S at ~ 16.1 mph) 23.5°C
(~ 74.3°F) 22.0°C
(~ 71.6°F) 17 knots
(~ 19.5 mph) 23 knots
(~ 26.4 mph) 1 mm/hr
(~ 0.04 in/hr) 18.9 knots (~ 21.8 mph)
135.3%
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
HDOB Observations
Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic
At 19:10:30Z (first observation), the observation was 23 miles (37 km) to the WNW (285°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Island
s (GBR).
At 19:20:00Z (last observation), the observation was 57 miles (91 km) to the W (274°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR).

Please note, suspect coordinates are not plotted.
Quoting 568. rmbjoe1954:



Thank you Gro for that riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.


No problem, Winston.
@548
Thanks Gro, that makes things Very clear!:)
all we need is pure west winds,
96L remains a disorganized mess. Going to take it awhile still to consolidate. Track remains up in the air but models seem to be converging on out to sea.

Quoting 582. LargoFl:




Eeek, not exactly what we need here in Tallahassee, that would be trouble...
Quoting 613. MAweatherboy1:

96L remains a disorganized mess. Going to take it awhile still to consolidate. Track remains up in the air but models seem to be converging on out to sea.




no upper air data in these models I believe
Quoting 606. VAbeachhurricanes:

Strengthening

Time: 19:20:00Z
Coordinates: 21.5167N 72.0167W
Acft. Static Air Press: 972.7 mb (~ 28.72 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 298 meters (~ 978 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1006.4 mb (~ 29.72 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 185° at 14 knots (From the S at ~ 16.1 mph)
Air Temp: 23.5°C (~ 74.3°F)
Dew Pt: 22.0°C (~ 71.6°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 17 knots (~ 19.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 23 knots (~ 26.4 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (~ 0.04 in/hr)
very slowly at the moment which is good

Glad all the local METs are saying this is not a Florida event. If it blows up the way some models are showing, I hope it continues to show no threat to the US.


i sure hope you're kidding.........seems hard to believe.......other florida bloggers...has this been the same for you??
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
96L remains a disorganized mess. Going to take it awhile still to consolidate. Track remains up in the air but models seem to be converging on out to sea.



I'd hardly call that a convergence. Still way up in the air.
Good afternoon.

I've posted a Saturday video discussion on Invest 96L for those interested:

Tropical Tidbit for Saturday, August 23rd
Quoting Articuno:
all we need is pure west winds,

Would be more exciting if they were going round and round in a tight circle.
But that's just me….
West winds. More than likely TD now.

Quoting 430. forecaster1:

About twenty two years ago I remember watching Andrew enter Homestead/ Miami and did some horrible things... I pray this storm does not gain that kind of power.
Too big, too close to the CONUS and not enough time to do that.
By the looks of it they have found the W winds you've been looking for
Someone was asking earlier if there was a site where you can declutter and add models as you see fit:

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/modelsOLD/data.cg i?basin=al&year=2014&storm=96&latestinvest=1&displ ay=googlemap&latestrun=1
There are two problems as I see it. First there is no defined COC to use for modeling. Second, there is that strong likelihood if 96L enters Bahamian waters it may stall in response to trough and ridge.
It's all a matter of timing and where exactly will future Cristobal be in 24 hours.
That ULL in the Florida. Straits is hendering the western side.

629. FOREX
Quoting 612. Articuno:

all we need is pure west winds,
sounds like a cool line for a song.
Pottery! I'm drunk...come get me...
19:24:30Z 21.617N 72.233W 972.6 mb
(~ 28.72 inHg) 297 meters
(~ 974 feet) 1006.1 mb
(~ 29.71 inHg) - From 276° at 5 knots
(From the W at ~ 5.8 mph) 23.0°C
(~ 73.4°F) 22.5°C
(~ 72.5°F) 5 knots
(~ 5.8 mph) - - - -
Quoting 624. wunderkidcayman:

By the looks of it they have found the W winds you've been looking for


yup we did, very weak west wind. By that we should have TD 4 or TS Cristobal at 5pm
Thats not how it works.

The Center of the overall has been run for dayz and there is a considerable spread of solutions.



Quoting 618. ricderr:

Glad all the local METs are saying this is not a Florida event. If it blows up the way some models are showing, I hope it continues to show no threat to the US.


i sure hope you're kidding.........seems hard to believe.......other florida bloggers...has this been the same for you??


Local Met I watched this morning said it looks like it will stay well east of FL. Downplayed the possibility of it coming west.
1006.1 mb
(~ 29.71 inHg) - From 276° at 5 knots
(From the W at ~ 5.8 mph)
yes we have it now
96L will not become a TD or TS yes it has a closed LLC but now it's in need of convection
Looks like we may have a TD.
Quoting 621. pottery:


Would be more exciting if they were going round and round in a tight circle.
But that's just me….


It is intensifying though. Pressure is slowly but surely dropping and the low has just closed off. Not bad considering
here your W winds

From 276° at 5 knots
(From the W at ~ 5.8 mph)
642. flsky
How's your weather right now?

Quoting 621. pottery:


Would be more exciting if they were going round and round in a tight circle.
But that's just me….
Quoting 634. hydrus:


funny how south florida doesn't seem that far away huh
96L floater 2:45 edt with Lat/Long and MSLP ticked
Link

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 19:29Z
Date: August 23, 2014
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)
Mission Purpose: Investigate fourth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 27


19:30:00Z 21.500N 72.433W 973.1 mb
(~ 28.74 inHg) 294 meters
(~ 965 feet) 1006.4 mb
(~ 29.72 inHg) - From 337° at 8 knots
(From the NNW at ~ 9.2 mph) 23.4°C
(~ 74.1°F) 22.4°C
(~ 72.3°F) 9 knots
(~ 10.3 mph) - - - -
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
HDOB Observations
Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic
At 19:20:30Z (first observation), the observation was 59 miles (95 km) to the W (274°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR).
At 19:30:00Z (last observation), the observation was 84 miles (134 km) to the W (272°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR).

Please note, suspect coordinates are not plotted.
Quoting 630. presslord:

Pottery! I'm drunk...come get me...



i come get you i put on a dress you be safe with me
Quoting presslord:
Pottery! I'm drunk...come get me...


Sorry. Yer on yer own…
But enjoy the moment !

heheheheheh

I'm Celebrating here.
Well actually, I'm about to start right now……...
Quoting 630. presslord:

Pottery! I'm drunk...come get me...


LOL, Pre Storm Toddy?
Quoting 646. Tazmanian:




i come get you i put on a dress you be safe with me
\\\Ewwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwweee
19:24:30Z 21.617N 72.233W 972.6 mb
(~ 28.72 inHg) 297 meters
(~ 974 feet) 1006.1 mb
(~ 29.71 inHg) - From 276° at 5 knots
(From the W at ~ 5.8 mph) 23.0°C
(~ 73.4°F) 22.5°C
(~ 72.5°F) 5 knots
(~ 5.8 mph)
Mostly Cloudy

99°F

37°C

Humidity39%
Wind SpeedW 6 mph
Barometer29.93 in (1013.4 mb)
Dewpoint70°F (21°C)
Visibility10.00 mi
Heat Index106°F (41°C)

Last Update on 23 Aug 2:53 pm EDT

Current conditions at

Tallahassee Regional Airport (KTLH)

Lat: 30.4°N Lon: 84.35°W Elev: 69ft.

More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather

gross here
21.617N 72.233W West winds reported by HH
Quoting 651. Jedkins01:

Mostly Cloudy

99°F

37°C

Humidity39%
Wind SpeedW 6 mph
Barometer29.93 in (1013.4 mb)
Dewpoint70°F (21°C)
Visibility10.00 mi
Heat Index106°F (41°C)

Last Update on 23 Aug 2:53 pm EDT

Current conditions at

Tallahassee Regional Airport (KTLH)

Lat: 30.4°N Lon: 84.35°W Elev: 69ft.

More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather

gross here


Hey Jed, I just got a long thunderstorm in Largo - lasted about an hour, flooded parts of the parking lot near my apartment
Waters are pretty warm but shallow between Florida and the Bahamas. I remember that was the area where Katrina grew up.
Quoting 639. Drakoen:

Looks like we may have a TD.


Tough crowd...
we got west winds?
for sure?

I been waiting a while to hear that.
19:25:00Z 21.633N 72.250W 973.1 mb
(~ 28.74 inHg) 293 meters
(~ 961 feet) 1006.1 mb
(~ 29.71 inHg) - From 330° at 4 knots
(From the NNW at ~ 4.6 mph) 23.1°C
(~ 73.6°F) 22.4°C
(~ 72.3°F) 5 knots
(~ 5.8 mph) - - - -
Quoting 614. EastCoastMove:



Eeek, not exactly what we need here in Tallahassee, that would be trouble...


Actually not really, rainfall has been well below normal this summer in Tallahassee with too much heat, it is needed here, a tropical storm would be well needed, and fun. Too bad its only the NAVGEM
Well, the Poll closed with the following results:

4) Undecided, with a tendency for that persons location
Quoting pottery:


Sorry. Yer on yer own…
But enjoy the moment !

heheheheheh

I'm Celebrating here.
Well actually, I'm about to start right now……...
Happy Birthday, Pott. Turns out we didn't get hit by a hurricane...yet.


they found some TS winds earlier today but prob will still be a TD
Quoting 656. rmbjoe1954:
Waters are pretty warm but shallow between Florida and the Bahamas. I remember that was the area where Katrina grew up.

bite your tongue
I'd peg the center at ~21.6N, 72.2W based off recon.
Quoting 620. Levi32:

Good afternoon.

I've posted a Saturday video discussion on Invest 96L for those interested:

Tropical Tidbit for Saturday, August 23rd


Great job on the Update, I am really not comfortable with an system like this one right off the coast and no one really knows yet if it will develop and where it will go. Thanks for your update.

Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)

If it meanders in the Bahamas for a couple of days, will it get picked up by a trough or blocked by a ridge eventually?
Quoting 666. CybrTeddy:

I'd peg the center at ~21.6N, 72.2W based off recon.


copy, were GO with those numbers..

cheese-n-rice- wouldja look at that

yo, hey gamma

all sortsa grumbling going on
Quoting 655. Hurricanes101:



Hey Jed, I just got a long thunderstorm in Largo - lasted about an hour, flooded parts of the parking lot near my apartment


Yeah I was happy to see that, I just left from my parent's house yesterday, they are staying up here this weekend with me before school starts next week to explore the area and have some fun with me up here. The rain is well needed in Pinellas, I'll find out from them when they get back how much we got in the rain gauge.

It looks like there is more on the way with a weak convergence zone in that area. The airmass isn't really tropical so I wouldn't expect really intense tropical downpours with the PW below normal at around 1.7, just "standard" downpours, unless you get some stronger cells.
673. FOREX
Quoting 666. CybrTeddy:

I'd peg the center at ~21.6N, 72.2W based off recon.
All I heard the last few days what how the water would be explosive for 96L. Why do you think its not getting stronger?
12z UKMET has shifted back towards a FL solution.

Quoting FOREX:
All I heard the last few days what how the water would be explosive for 96L. Why do you think its not getting stronger?


wait until it gets closer to Bahamas
Quoting 643. LargoFl:

funny how south florida doesn't seem that far away huh
It isn't... maybe 1 1/2 hours by plane to Provo...
Quoting 635. BobinTampa:



Local Met I watched this morning said it looks like it will stay well east of FL. Downplayed the possibility of it coming west.
baynews 9 website says it will affect us ... says most likely going out to sea or closer to east coast so we get dry air. i need rain in the riverview area. not much of a rainy season at all here.
confound it- I feel like a bad luck charm

everytime the @#%$ goes in the oven, I am
here for the GO

dangblastit pat, do ya think we are really a GO right now? If we got west winds, it's a whole new deck of cards.
An upgrade its imminent.
Quoting 638. wunderkidcayman:

96L will not become a TD or TS yes it has a closed LLC but now it's in need of convection
Do you remember when Bertha was upgrade just a while ago? She only had a minuscule thunderstorm.
Quoting 671. aquak9:

cheese-n-rice- wouldja look at that

yo, hey gamma

all sortsa grumbling going on



Hi Aqua, glad to see another familiar face around this blog! a few of the original bunch has been peeking in from time to time. I mostly lurk these days when something is out there....and this thing is just like down the block!
Quoting 679. aquak9:

confound it- I feel like a bad luck charm

everytime the @#%$ goes in the oven, I am
here for the GO

dangblastit pat, do ya think we are really a GO right now? If we got west winds, it's a whole new deck of cards.


Someone has to cut and deal..,

yet.
Quoting rmbjoe1954:
Waters are pretty warm but shallow between Florida and the Bahamas. I remember that was the area where Katrina grew up.
Speaking of that, Katrina formed today. Lol.
Quoting 675. CybrTeddy:

12z UKMET has shifted back towards a FL solution.




The windshield wiper is in effect!
Quoting 676. will40:



wait until it gets closer to Bahamas
It's practically in the Bahamas now.... HHers are flying very near Inagua, which is the Southernmost Bahamian island.
Thunderstorms are increasing...heat of day or getting bigger ?
Presslord - CONGRATS on getting your award.
Hard to believe we are near the peak of the season.


Meanwhile in the EPAC...
thanks for the update Levi ...going to be an interesting few days for sure
Track of this storm still looks like it's up in the air even with this new center. A think a blend between the GFDL, GFS and UKMET and NAVGEM 12z runs would be a good initial track but wouldn't be surprising to see the NHC lean farther right.
Quoting 628. washingaway:

That ULL in the Florida. Straits is hendering the western side.




Thank you for that analysis. That ULL is breaking up what remains of 96L. This blob looks worst than it has in many days.
Quoting BahaHurican:
It's practically in the Bahamas now.... HHers are flying very near Inagua, which is the Southernmost Bahamian island.


hasnt left there yet tho
Quoting 656. rmbjoe1954:

Waters are pretty warm but shallow between Florida and the Bahamas. I remember that was the area where Katrina grew up.
Right over Exuma Sound.... lol ... then up the NW Passage.... still remember that afternoon like it was yesterday.

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 19:39Z
Date: August 23, 2014
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)
Mission Purpose: Investigate fourth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 28




19:40:00Z 21.117N 72.817W 973.1 mb
(~ 28.74 inHg) 299 meters
(~ 981 feet) 1006.8 mb
(~ 29.73 inHg) - From 12° at 4 knots
(From the NNE at ~ 4.6 mph) 23.8°C
(~ 74.8°F) 21.3°C
(~ 70.3°F) 4 knots
(~ 4.6 mph) - - - -
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
HDOB Observations
Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic
At 19:30:30Z (first observation), the observation was 85 miles (136 km) to the W (271°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR).
At 19:40:00Z (last observation), the observation was 111 miles (178 km) to the WSW (258°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR).

Please note, suspect coordinates are not plotted
Quoting 667. seflagamma:



Great job on the Update, I am really not comfortable with an system like this one right off the coast and no one really knows yet if it will develop and where it will go. Thanks for your update.


I think the former we do have confidence in (it should develop and be named Cristobal), but obviously that's not much help if we're still not sure about the track :)
just cus


my turn? :-)
Quoting 673. FOREX:

All I heard the last few days what how the water would be explosive for 96L. Why do you think its not getting stronger?


It's still a bit tangled up with Hispaniola and the Upper High that was ventilating/protecting it from high shear is displaced from the center so causing some moderate shear over parts of the system (although there's still low shear over the center of 96L). It'll start organising more now that it's moved away/is moving away from Hispaniola. I think it'll put on a decent performance tonight with plenty of warm waters and Dmax. At least that's my take on it.
Either this will be an epic victory for the newly upgraded UKMET, or a disappointing turnout. I think only 1-2 runs the last 5 days or show have shown an OTS solution. 12z CMC should be discarded due to poor initialization, and HWRF intensifies this too quickly (983mb in 48 hours is simply just too unlikely to verify with its current organizational state). 12z GFS and 12z ECMWF both show out to sea, 18z GFS could easily shift back to what the 06z is showing. A difference in track of up to 30-50 miles in the next 24-48 will make all the difference from a GOMEX route to a solution well OTS. Both solutions could result in a decent hurricane, however.
Quoting allancalderini:
Boris TCR is out for the ones that care. He didn't make landfall in Mexico so the only landfalling storm in 2013 of the Epac is Iselle in the big island.

Iselle was this year, lol.
finding more W winds

19:49:30Z 20.767N 73.167W 972.4 mb
(~ 28.71 inHg) 305 meters
(~ 1,001 feet) 1006.8 mb
(~ 29.73 inHg) - From 278° at 6 knots
(From the W at ~ 6.9 mph
Puerto Rico at least is still getting heavy rain, a lot more than from Bertha, some areas have seen between 8-12 inches over the island of much needed rain. A lot of the rainforest jungles have been well below normal.
Looks like Marie is starting to clear out an eye.
Quoting 686. DewPointOneDrop:

Thunderstorms are increasing...heat of day or getting bigger ?
That heat of day thing is likely to aid 96L a ittle this p.m.

Quoting 683. HurricaneAndre:

Speaking of that, Katrina formed today. Lol.


Yep we may be watching another Katrina in the making...
19:49:30Z 20.767N 73.167W 972.4 mb
(~ 28.71 inHg) 305 meters
(~ 1,001 feet) 1006.8 mb
(~ 29.73 inHg) - From 278° at 6 knots
(From the W at ~ 6.9 mph) 24.0°C
(~ 75.2°F) 22.5°C
(~ 72.5°F) 7 knots
(~ 8.0 mph) - - - -
interesting system

here’s my thoughts:

1. recent history=Bertha. also, storms this year seem to be right sided. Bertha was deeper in this location, so it went more north?

2. shallow hot water in the Bahamas: if it stalls, it will intensify and then run out of hot water. maybe enough to push it north?

3. I like the TVCA solution.

no crystal ball or PhD. Just an old surfer

keep up the good work
Quoting 698. CybrTeddy:

Either this will be an epic victory for the newly upgraded UKMET, or a disappointing turnout. I think only 1-2 runs the last 5 days or show have shown an OTS solution. 12z CMC should be discarded due to poor initialization, and HWRF intensifies this too quickly (983mb in 48 hours is simply just too unlikely to verify with its current organizational state). 12z GFS and 12z ECMWF both show out to sea, 18z GFS could easily shift back. A difference in track of up to 30-50 miles in the next 24-48 will make all the difference from a GOMEX route to a solution well OTS. Both solutions could result in a decent hurricane, however.


There wasn't really a big difference between the 06z GFS and GFDL and the 12z GFS and GFDL. It's only the idea of a Florida landfall that makes it seem bigger than it really is.
710. beell
Quoting 639. Drakoen:

Looks like we may have a TD.

Temporary Disambiguation?
Quoting 675. CybrTeddy:

12z UKMET has shifted back towards a FL solution.




Notice the development of the wave near the Lesser Antilles. The CMC/Navgem also develop it, so we could potentially see Dolly soon too.
712. SLU
The last rain band from 96L is already slowly clearing PR.
I don't think 96L is a TD right now, but it could be a TD any time soon.
This will be my last comment about this invest. I come back for the next future invest (if it goes to Caribbean with good certainty). If you are from Bahamas or from Fla. outer banks or Carolinas, please take care of yourself in the event this system goes toward you. See you folks.
Quoting 699. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Iselle was this year, lol.
Lol thanks Cods. I am still light head after being without electricity for 14 hours. XD.
20.767N 73.167W West winds reported again. Most likely get an upgrade @ 5 IMO.
Quoting 705. Dakster:


Yep we may be watching another Katrina in the making...

Dak! that's mean! no no no!!

shame on you!
Quoting 710. beell:


Temporary Disambiguation?


Lol. I was just making note of the the west winds found by the HH as that seems to be what the NHC was waiting for. On the other hand, the circulation still does not look strong on satellite imagery.
Look what miss piggy found.
Good page there of westerlies, with one pure westerly wind. If it's not closed off, it's getting closer to doing so.
Quoting Jedkins01:
Puerto Rico at least is still getting heavy rain, a lot more than from Bertha, some areas have seen between 8-12 inches over the island of much needed rain. A lot of the rainforest jungles have been well below normal.

Can confirm, it's still raining here. Carraizo (an important reservoir) is starting to rise closer to normal levels, but the rain is still bringing some flooding problems (article in Spanish).
Quoting 708. hulakai:

interesting system

here’s my thoughts:

1. recent history=Bertha. also, storms this year seem to be right sided. Bertha was deeper in this location, so it went more north?

2. shallow hot water in the Bahamas: if it stalls, it will intensify and then run out of hot water. maybe enough to push it north?

3. I like the TVCA solution.

no crystal ball or PhD. Just an old surfer

keep up the good work

Not all of it. A lot of the water in 96L's path is more than sufficient to support a slow-moving storm. The problem would come on the western side of the archipelago; if it stays on a NWly track it could intensify.
Quoting Tazmanian:
finding more W winds

19:49:30Z 20.767N 73.167W 972.4 mb
(~ 28.71 inHg) 305 meters
(~ 1,001 feet) 1006.8 mb
(~ 29.73 inHg) - From 278° at 6 knots
(From the W at ~ 6.9 mph


They need to just upgrade it and get it over with. It's been a long struggle for this system to get to this point.
Now where does it go and how strong does it get?

Product: Air Force High Density (HDOB) Message (URNT15 KNHC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 19:59Z
Date: August 23, 2014
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)
Mission Purpose: Investigate fourth suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 4
Observation Number: 30

20:00:00Z 20.783N 72.550W 973.2 mb
(~ 28.74 inHg) 297 meters
(~ 974 feet) 1006.7 mb
(~ 29.73 inHg) - From 254° at 11 knots
(From the WSW at ~ 12.6 mph) 24.1°C
(~ 75.4°F) 22.3°C
(~ 72.1°F) 12 knots
(~ 13.8 mph) - - - -
Time Coordinates Aircraft
Static Air Pressure Aircraft
Geopotential Height Extrapolated
Surface Pressure D-value Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.) Air Temp. Dew Point Peak (10 sec. Avg.)
Flight Level Wind SFMR
Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind SFMR
Rain Rate Estimated Surface Wind (30 sec. Avg.)
Using Estimated Reduction Factor Peak Wind at Flight Level to
Est. Surface Reduction Factor
HDOB Observations
Independent Calculations from Tropical Atlantic
At 19:50:30Z (first observation), the observation was 135 miles (218 km) to the WSW (249°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR).
At 20:00:00Z (last observation), the observation was 103 miles (165 km) to the WSW (243°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR).

Please note, suspect coordinates are not plotted.
Quoting 715. stormwatcherCI:

20.767N 73.167W West winds reported again. Most likely get an upgrade @ 5 IMO.
I second that.
TWC is too busy showing some hunting show while we have a tropical storm close to the U.S.
Why would they miss this opportunity to inform viewers about what's going on?

Observations from the RGB visible satellite images and the latest Recon data from the AF310 indicate that there is now a low level circulation feature near the island of Providenciales in the Turks and Caicos Islands. With winds now coming from the northwest to the south of Providenciales and winds from the southeast to the north of the Turks and Caicos at 40MPH, it appears we have at least a tropical depression on our hands if not a minimal tropical storm Christobal. The NHC may choose to wait to see if the circulation persists, but with the amount of convection surrounding this system and the large scale circulation, I doubt the NHC will wait to classify this storm.

Quoting Drakoen:


The wasn't really a big difference between the 06z GFS and GFDL and the 12z GFS and GFDL. It's only the idea of a Florida landfall that makes it seem bigger than it really is.


models the afternoon favoring OTS based on new llc if it indeed its up there in my view favors recurve.
Quoting 716. aquak9:


Dak! that's mean! no no no!!

shame on you!


I call them as I see them... When have you known me to hold back or be P.C.? I don't want another Katrina either.

System looks horrible in my opinion being very asymmetric.

This is the real deal here:

Time: 19:49:30Z
Coordinates: 20.7667N 73.1667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 972.4 mb (~ 28.71 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 305 meters (~ 1,001 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1006.8 mb (~ 29.73 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 278° at 6 knots (From the W at ~ 6.9 mph)
Air Temp: 24.0°C (~ 75.2°F)
Dew Pt: 22.5°C (~ 72.5°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 7 knots (~ 8.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: -
SFMR Rain Rate: -
Quoting 725. Sfloridacat5:

TWC is too busy showing some hunting show while we have a tropical storm close to the U.S.


that's diversification for you.
Banding looking better on 96L.
734. flsky
Rain bands beginning to develop on the west side.
Quoting 701. Patrap:


Quoting 733. sflmike:

Banding looking better on 96L.


I second that motion
Quoting 727. hurricane23:



models the afternoon favoring OTS based on new llc if it indeed its up there in my view favors recurve.


I don't think it's a game changer Adrian, in fact I think some models anticipated this. Here's the GFS 6z who took 96L into south Florida and look where it forecasted the low to be now. Look familiar?

Quoting Drakoen:
System looks horrible in my opinion being very asymmetric.



Polarward and eastward banding look better defined than it was this morning, I'll give it that.
19:57:00Z 20.767N 72.733W 973.0 mb
(~ 28.73 inHg) 299 meters
(~ 981 feet) 1006.6 mb
(~ 29.72 inHg) - From 261° at 9 knots
(From the W at ~ 10.3 mph) 24.0°C
(~ 75.2°F) 22.4°C
(~ 72.3°F) 10 knots
(~ 11.5 mph) - - - -
19:57:30Z 20.767N 72.700W 972.8 mb
(~ 28.73 inHg) 300 meters
(~ 984 feet) 1006.6 mb
(~ 29.72 inHg) - From 262° at 10 knots
(From the W at ~ 11.5 mph)



getting more and more W winds
did the HH find a fixed center yet?
hey baja- I've been waiting for those west winds- finally decided to post, and five minutes later we had west winds-

yeah I guess it's real, not tight yet but west is west, we can't argue about it
Quoting 730. Drakoen:

System looks horrible in my opinion being very asymmetric.



I don't think anybody would disagree with you, but it is improving slowly, but surely.
The system can only get better once it gets away from Hispaniola's influence.
Way out outerbands are already starting to show up on the Miami long range radar.

Quoting 734. flsky:

Rain bands beginning to develop on the west side.

Looking at that pic almost tells you where its going to go
One problem is the mountains of Hispaniola disrupting the southern moisture. The moisture flow from the south is being forced up and rained out on the island. Once the storm pulls further away the southern side of the storm will rebound.
701. Patrap

looking at that.....it would appear to my expertly untrained eye....it's not gonna hit florida
Circulation still looks broad with the latest recon findings but the west winds may be enough for them to go ahead and classify.
Quoting LargoFl:
did the HH find a fixed center yet?


west winds but no vortex report yet
Quoting 730. Drakoen:

System looks horrible in my opinion being very asymmetric.




Give the poor thing a break. It's only an invest.
Quoting 730. Drakoen:

System looks horrible in my opinion being very asymmetric.




It looks like half of a cyclone, but if it does get going with the west side. (actually looks like it's working on it right now, probably just daytime heating though) it certainly has the chances of strengthening, the anticyclone is still there, correct? (I'm on my mom's laptop because mine was having problems so i don't have some links, and tbh i didn't have much links to begin with, but yeah, it still has it right?}
A whole page of winds coming from 250-260 degrees. I'd say that's decent evidence to suggest a closed circulation.
Quoting 731. BahaHurican:

This is the real deal here:

Time: 19:49:30Z
Coordinates: 20.7667N 73.1667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 972.4 mb (~ 28.71 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 305 meters (~ 1,001 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1006.8 mb (~ 29.73 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 278° at 6 knots (From the W at ~ 6.9 mph)
Air Temp: 24.0°C (~ 75.2°F)
Dew Pt: 22.5°C (~ 72.5°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 7 knots (~ 8.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: -
SFMR Rain Rate: -
FIND A WEST WIND
TWC is teaching me how to make a fire in the woods.
not to freak anyone out, not to hype, I'm not posting this on any page, but 96L's current position and meandering in the Bahamas is VERY similar to what Hurricane Katrina did in 2005 before it organized and formed a dominant COC in 2005 in the Bahamas, I don't remember much from that time, and I'm certainly not saying its 100% similar, but the push west into the Gulf that looks like the more plausible scenario at this time, similar to how Katrina was. That being said, there's no saying what Cristobal, if it develops, could do. This is eerily similar, but not a guarantee it will even go into the Gulf.
WHERE IS THE CENTER OF INVEST 96L
The system has been classified has a TD.
Quoting 743. Ameister12:


I don't think anybody would disagree with you, but it is improving slowly, but surely.


It is getting that shrimp look to it.
Quoting Articuno:


It looks like half of a cyclone, but if it does get going with the west side. (actually looks like it's working on it right now, probably just daytime heating though) it certainly has the chances of strengthening, the anticyclone is still there, correct? (I'm on my mom's laptop because mine was having problems so i don't have some links, and tbh i didn't have much links to begin with, but yeah, it still has it right?}


It is.

Quoting 728. Dakster:



I call them as I see them... When have you known me to hold back or be P.C.? I don't want another Katrina either.


Sooner or later we are going to have other bad storms hit the places where people live. It's reality. I don't see why Katrina should be a bad word when one is talking about rapid intensification over the Bahamas, but the 1935 Keys hurricane should not....

Quoting 756. Sfloridacat5:

TWC is teaching me how to make a fire in the woods.



If this storm hits, you made need to know!
765. FOREX
Quoting 757. dfwstormwatch:

not to freak anyone out, not to hype, I'm not posting this on any page, but 96L's current position and meandering in the Bahamas is VERY similar to what Hurricane Katrina did in 2005 before it organized and formed a dominant COC in 2005 in the Bahamas, I don't remember much from that time, and I'm certainly not saying its 100% similar, but the push west into the Gulf that looks like the more plausible scenario at this time, similar to how Katrina was. That being said, there's no saying what Cristobal, if it develops, could do. This is eerily similar, but not a guarantee it will even go into the Gulf.
was Katrina up against an approaching trough like this one is?
this....

18Z Nam coming out............................................... ...............................
Quoting weather24:
The system has been classified has a TD.
It has?
Quoting 756. Sfloridacat5:
TWC is teaching me how to make a fire in the woods.


remember what a public safety issue it was if TWC wasn't on DirecTV?

DirecTV customers wouldn't know how to make fire in the woods if they didn't work that out.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
TWC is teaching me how to make a fire in the woods.


You may find that information helpful in a couple of days.
Quoting 757. dfwstormwatch:

not to freak anyone out, not to hype, I'm not posting this on any page, but 96L's current position and meandering in the Bahamas is VERY similar to what Hurricane Katrina did in 2005 before it organized and formed a dominant COC in 2005 in the Bahamas, I don't remember much from that time, and I'm certainly not saying its 100% similar, but the push west into the Gulf that looks like the more plausible scenario at this time, similar to how Katrina was. That being said, there's no saying what Cristobal, if it develops, could do. This is eerily similar, but not a guarantee it will even go into the Gulf.


Stop that your scaring the children.....:)
Quoting 770. HurricaneAndre:

It has?



i see nothing up right now that says we have a TD
Quoting 766. hurricane23:

this....




Makes me feel more confident in leaning towards the west.
Quoting 742. aquak9:

hey baja- I've been waiting for those west winds- finally decided to post, and five minutes later we had west winds-

yeah I guess it's real, not tight yet but west is west, we can't argue about it
So now I have to watch for track and intensity forecast. Big decision on whether to put up shutters, preferably tomorrow early before the heat gets too bad....


Quoting 769. AtHomeInTX:

Hi there! Long time no see! Ive been out for a while!
You know I've looked at several visible satellite loops over the course of today. First it looks like it's beginning to consolidate and wrap up... but then next hour it looks like it's opening up again. Anyone else notice this?
Quoting Patrap:


If its annoying you then Im all for it.

: P


Yo!
Quoting 763. BahaHurican:

Sooner or later we are going to have other bad storms hit the places where people live. It's reality. I don't see why Katrina should be a bad word when one is talking about rapid intensification over the Bahamas, but the 1935 Keys hurricane should not....




When you live in a area that gets hit by storms, eventually, a bad one is going to come your way... I don't wish death or destruction on any one.

However, the fact is, at one point, another large and powerful storm will hit the areas around the GOM and Eastern US Coast, the Bahamas, Bermuda, etc...

I wouldn't want another Andrew, but I would want to know if the conditions were the same for another hurricane like Andrew to hit...

Anyone living in a Hurricane prone area should already have their kits and plans ready. MAYBE if a storm is threatening a double check and a top off of supplies. Just like my new home, I have to be prepared to be without heat, power, or Food from the store for 3 weeks... Sucks because I have to start that from scratch, but it is what it is.
Quoting washingaway:


You may find that information helpful in a couple of days.


To boil swamp water for drinking.
Quoting hurricane23:
this....



12z GFS ensembles look similar.

Quoting Drakoen:


Makes me feel more confident in leaning towards the west.


yep very telling for sure..tonights 00z runs will be interesting
Quoting 749. Drakoen:

Circulation still looks broad with the latest recon findings but the west winds may be enough for them to go ahead and classify.
Considering they've been waiting for that closed circulation, I'd say yes... and seems they've set a bit of a precedent, going back to the last Dolly....
Quoting 759. weather24:

The system has been classified has a TD.


Congrats! You're number 80!
Quoting 760. Patrap:








Is that a pinhole EYE?
789. beell
Quoting 717. Drakoen:



Lol. I was just making note of the the west winds found by the HH as that seems to be what the NHC was waiting for. On the other hand, the circulation still does not look strong on satellite imagery.


Well, it does have some convection surrounding the circulation. And I think most folks in Emergency Management like to hit the go button on the response plan by at least 72 hrs-so it would not hurt a soul to call it a TD.
Quoting 784. hurricane23:



yep very telling for sure..tonights 00z runs will be interesting


Indeed. It will soon be time to stick our necks out and say where this will ultimately end up going.
Quoting xtremeweathertracker:



Hi there! Long time no see! Ive been out for a while!


hi neighbor. Nice to see you again. I haven't been posting much either. Mostly lurking. :) wishing this one would decide what it wants to do!
Quoting 779. RickWPB:

You know I've looked at several visible satellite loops over the course of today. First it looks like it's beginning to consolidate and wrap up... but then next hour it looks like it's opening up again. Anyone else notice this?
its dmin effect after sunset is when and if anything interesting should begin if not then it may never get itself going its all wait and see last minute event I think NHC has even been thinking same thing
Quoting 787. muddertracker:



Is that a pinhole EYE?


Bingo.

Only only took 13 posts of it.

Yer da Winnah!
how favorable is the eastern gulf if 96L manages to take the left path?
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


To boil swamp water for drinking.


Naked and afraid
Quoting 789. beell:



Well, it does have some convection surrounding the circulation. And I think most folks in Emergency Management like to hit the go button on the response plan by at least 72 hrs-so it would not hurt a soul to call it a TD.


Gone are the days of "organized deep convection about a well defined surface low". Any trash that spins is a TC now
Oh snap! The long-time crowd favorite, 96L, is finally beginning to close off a low level circulation. The bloggers are going wild with this recent observation.

Needless to say, the Atlantic has got it going ON. EPac, this is embarrassing. Time to step up your game. Whatcha got?



Oh.
Quoting 756. Sfloridacat5:

TWC is teaching me how to make a fire in the woods.

Next thing you know they will be teaching you how to wipe your bum.
Good afternoon everyone, been out and about today, can someone give me a quick update as to what is going on with 96 and are models still flip flopping around, Thanks.
(waves to AtHome)
well..IF..it makes it into the gulf...Look Out.....................Boom...................... .......
Quoting QPhysFTW:
Oh snap! The long-time crowd favorite, 96L, is finally beginning to close off a low level circulation. The bloggers are going wild with this recent observation.

Needless to say, the Atlantic has got it going ON. EPac, this is embarrassing. Time to step up your game. Whatcha got?



Oh.


Yea, the Atlantic season has been a fart in the wind when compared to the Eastern Pacific season.
Anyway guys I'm heading out see ya'll in a few hrs
I do wish I could stay but I have to go
Quoting 725. Sfloridacat5:

TWC is too busy showing some hunting show while we have a tropical storm close to the U.S.
Why would they miss this opportunity to inform viewers about what's going on?




What do you want them to say? Nothing has really changed, but be ready in a 10 min circulation? These weather mets are damned if they do, damned if they don't, they are either overhyping or downplaying but somehow always wrong :)
Another look at the ECMWF EPS 12z, the graphic to to the left:

Quoting 796. Drakoen:


Gone are the days of "organized deep convection about a well defined surface low". Any trash that spins is a TC now

I opened the lid to my washing machine and they named it-
Quoting aquak9:
(waves to AtHome)


Hi Aqua! :)
Have noticed something in the models and pattern that may or may not be significant. With high pressure over the northeastern portions of the U.S. and a developing low pressure area across the Bahamas, this would make for a classic Cold Air Damming scenario across the eastern side of the Appalachian Mountains. Question is, are the models seeing this and how would it affect the mid-level steering? I know cold-air damming is usually a surface event, but wouldn't the cold air lower mid-level heights, which could cause a weakening of the ridge over the central U.S.? This could be why some models move the storm northwestward into the southeastern United States.
I would like to see it classified just so they have to plot a course.
18Z NAM at 50%............................................... ..............................................
Navy site still has system labeled as 96L.INVEST. Not sure why I'm seeing posts that the system has been upgraded to a depression...
Quoting 809. washingaway:

I would like to see it classified just so they have to plot a course.


And updates more frequently...
814. FOREX
At the angle it is moving, it can't get into the gulf can it?
Anybody has links for the EMWCF model?
Quoting VegasRain:
Navy site still has system labeled as 96L.INVEST. Not sure why I'm seeing posts that the system has been upgraded to a depression...


You shouldn't be. One user just decided to post false information. 96L remains 96L.
and for a commercial time out.......mother nature is pregnant.....expect that baby....it's a boy...and he's coming


Quoting 806. aquak9:


I opened the lid to my washing machine and they named it-



LOL!

Anybody has links for the EMWCF model?


type to google god.......fsu tropical model
Quoting 795. washingaway:



Naked and afraid
Isn't that the show that's set in Andros Island?

Quoting vlaming:


What do you want them to say? Nothing has really changed, but be ready in a 10 min circulation? These weather mets are damned if they do, damned if they don't, they are either overhyping or downplaying but somehow always wrong :)


I want to see the weather. Show the latest details on the system and weather around the country.
Anything weather related is better than showing people how to sleep in a tent and build a camp fire.
Quoting 809. washingaway:

I would like to see it classified just so they have to plot a course.


Probably will be a big balloon initially

2014 Storms




All

Active

Year




Atlantic


green ball96L.INVEST



East Pacific


green ball13E.MARIE


green ball12E.LOWELL


green ball11E.KARINA



Central Pacific



West Pacific



Indian Ocean



Southern Hemisphere



Southern Hemisphere 2015
Quoting 813. Dakster:


And updates more frequently...


Possibly stupid question: If they classified it just for the sake of classifying it, wouldn't that effect the accuracy of the models too? I guess they'd all be initializing from the same place.
Listen NHC just did a conference call on the system its classified.
remember east of the windwd 96 put down a spurious low. is this the real deal?
Looks like another special TWO saying once again no closed center of low pressure
Quoting BahaHurican:
Isn't that the show that's set in Andros Island?



Yeah, and other places.
Quoting 828. weather24:

Listen NHC just did a conference call on the system its classified.


My phone dint ring.
While everyone is stuck on 96L WOW this is the least dry saharan air in the atlantic for a while getting there in the MDR i must say!
Quoting 832. Patrap:


My phone dint ring.

mine did

heh heh heh
Quoting 828. weather24:

Listen NHC just did a conference call on the system its classified.


Do you have a link?
Quoting 812. VegasRain:

Navy site still has system labeled as 96L.INVEST. Not sure why I'm seeing posts that the system has been upgraded to a depression...
Some pple are just precipitous ....

Quoting 814. FOREX:

At the angle it is moving, it can't get into the gulf can it?
Sure it can.... think Betsy....
837. FOREX
Quoting 828. weather24:

Listen NHC just did a conference call on the system its classified.
You better be telling the truth son.
838. beell
Quoting 766. hurricane23:

this....




Put that skeleton back in the closet right now! We are not going to talk about such things.



Quoting 837. FOREX:

You better be telling the truth son.

lol. He isn't.
Non Tasked UAD flight in the air.

08/23 Noaa305eeawave NOAA N43RF URNT15
Quoting 838. beell:



Put that skeleton back in the closet right now! We are not going to talk about such things.






What's your thoughts on track beell?
Is that trough starting to move a little east of 96L now? Will that cause 96L to meander there for a while?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.h tml
Quoting 830. weatherlover94:

Looks like another special TWO saying once again no closed center of low pressure


there is no special TWO right now
Quoting 831. washingaway:



Yeah, and other places.
So.. learn to wipe one's bum in international locations.... wonder if they have any advice for this during a hurricane.... maybe they're filming this weekend... :o]
Quoting 832. Patrap:



My phone dint ring.
https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:A Nd9GcSTmRVmWzauNFpdz-TTpE-k1A8mX0Prj_jh0IPxKtbzeOy XpIlUDg Getting Ready to Draw the Cone!
Nevermind.
Quoting 830. weatherlover94:

Looks like another special TWO saying once again no closed center of low pressure


How the low is closed, its broad, but its closed, there are westerly winds over the ocean north of Hispaniola.
Boom. TD4 on the NHC site.
HH inbound to center again, NHC might wait for one more pass
Quoting 816. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




That's an old video. Some old info too. The eye of a hurricane can be as small as 2 miles (Wilma) not 4 miles as the narrator claims, and I believe that Hurricane Isabel's eye was well over 40 miles across.
The Coc...or what have you

NHC page says TD four. We have our fourth tropical depression of the year folks.
TD-4!
Quoting 801. LargoFl:

well..IF..it makes it into the gulf...Look Out.....................Boom...................... .......
Quoting 844. Tazmanian:



there is no special TWO right now
We may get advisory 1 at 5, though...

Added: OH.... I see we did....
This is now TD 4 based on guidance. Need to wait for official.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR (AL042014) 20140823 1800 UTC
Hey we actually do...have TD4
There is 2 planes in the storm now. One at 8k ft. and one flying the surface.
000
WTNT24 KNHC 232040
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
2100 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014
Quoting 851. VAbeachhurricanes:

HH inbound to center again, NHC might wait for one more pass


They declared it already.
TD FIUR
Check hurricanes.gov the NHC site:

TC Type ImageTropical Depression FOUR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
2100 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.
Looks like a recurve.

If there was conference call it probably to discuss who was going to make the official track. Any takers?
Pull of the trough having an affect on the NE convection of 96L making it hard to spin convection around the COC. Northern convection certainly feeling the pull of the trough but the COC seems it's too far south or trough is not strong enough to be having a real affect on it. Trough having a negative affect that's for sure. Once 96L goes further West should be able to consolidate, but looking like tomorrow is now looking more probable for development. Or it may have just been declared. :)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#FOUR

There she blows. (or goes?)
OT images now allowed here? Careful, it is a slippery slope... The next thing you know, people will be cracking a smile while they work a storm. Can't be having that.
Thunderstorms appear to be entering the center..

We have TD 4. Cone coming soon.
872. beell
Quoting 842. Drakoen:



What's your thoughts on track beell?


Cat 1, NC/SC coasts. I think gulf ridging will be stout enough and hold on long enough to keep this out of the GOM.




And here we have it.. our 4th storm of the season.
Quoting 862. CybrTeddy:

000
WTNT24 KNHC 232040
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
2100 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014
??? has 40mph winds
Quoting 850. CybrTeddy:

Boom. TD4 on the NHC site.


Thar the blows..
Buckle your seat belts! The blog is going into ludicrous speed.
Well, not surprised to see that Advisory. Now to see how quickly they upgrade to Cristobal....

BBL.
Track away from fl possible threat to NC.
oh dear-
now what?
000
WTNT24 KNHC 232040
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
2100 UTC SAT AUG 23 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND FOR THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 72.3W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 72.3W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 72.2W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 22.9N 73.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 24.0N 74.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 24.6N 74.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 25.0N 75.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 26.5N 76.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 29.0N 77.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 32.0N 76.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 72.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



Are fish land-casters? hmmm, maybe they are tired of all these storms. Lol, just some humor to lighten the mood.
885. FOREX
Quoting 865. CybrTeddy:

Looks like a recurve.




No Gulf, not even close.
With all the convection starting to blossom to the north and east of the weak center, it may induce formation of a new center further N or NE, which would then make it more likely to head out to sea.
18Z Nam 75% finished.......................................... ............................................


notDOOM..??
Before I go....

Florida is just out of the cone.
We have TD 4Link
892. FOREX
Quoting 866. washingaway:

If there was conference call it probably to discuss who was going to make the official track. Any takers?
SAR
If NHC says its moving NW then I guess it is, tho it appears to me to still be moving WNW. Glad its finally been classified a Depression...
It really feels like the OBX are always at risk moreso than S. FL or NOLA.
I think the track should have been farther west to include portions of eastern Florida but it's no surprise they went with the consensus track.
896. SLU
04L

Quoting 865. CybrTeddy:

Looks like a recurve.




Nice to have an official NHC forecast at last. I can't load the NHC website for some reason, so thanks for posting this (maybe WU crashed it lol).
Quoting 865. CybrTeddy:

Looks like a recurve.


remember debby's track? into texas. day later switched into florida. it happens
Quoting 806. aquak9:


I opened the lid to my washing machine and they named it-
nice...
TD-4 ..now how long before the models get the new info into their runs...tonight or 6Z tomorrow?
901. SLU
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 32.0N 76.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
903. A4Guy
Hate to say it, but I bet when that cone came out, several WU blog commenters shed a few tears.
TD 4! Now the blog can explode with 2300 copies of the same image of the 5 day forecast cone! Whopee!
Marie's eye is trying to clear out.

Quoting 808. louisianaboy444:

Have noticed something in the models and pattern that may or may not be significant. With high pressure over the northeastern portions of the U.S. and a developing low pressure area across the Bahamas, this would make for a classic Cold Air Damming scenario across the eastern side of the Appalachian Mountains. Question is, are the models seeing this and how would it affect the mid-level steering? I know cold-air damming is usually a surface event, but wouldn't the cold air lower mid-level heights, which could cause a weakening of the ridge over the central U.S.? This could be why some models move the storm northwestward into the southeastern United States.


My NWS from Raleigh has made no mention of a summertime cold air damming event, with temps dropping about 5-7 degrees below normal...However, the NWS from Blacksburg, VA began their short term discussion by saying that 'a strong wedge of high pressure will be over the forecast area' through Tuesday. Resembles a CAD if you ask me. I can't draw any conclusion from that...but if you can, you got more than me. :)
Things getting a bit more active in the central Exumas.
Squalls and shifting winds.
Quoting 865. CybrTeddy:

Looks like a recurve.





Very wide cone though.
The ULL bookin it thru the Florida Straits could helpful before long.

Quoting 865. CybrTeddy:

Looks like a recurve.




Trusting the trof, eh? Alrighty then.
Quoting 889. BahaHurican:

Before I go....




IDK... I'm not convinced that the recurve will occur when predicted. I think this system may come closer to the Carolina's than the official forecast is calling for. That slowdown at 48 hours may not be as slow as the models are predicting and it may move much closer to the mainland before it starts to move to the North and then the NNW.
Quoting 895. Drakoen:

I think the track should have been farther west to include portions of eastern Florida but it's no surprise they went with the consensus track.


They might later.

It's hard to believe that 96L traveled all the way from Africa across the Atlantic to make a turn right before it gets to Florida. It's pretty amazing.
Another chance for the Outerbanks to see a hurricane. It just might end up being their season.
So it is OTS now? WOW!
There is no reason this can not get to cat #3 by Monday,Heading straight for The OBX of North Carolina!
Quoting 882. aquak9:

oh dear-
now what?
Spam and yogurt?
Hello, well it's over!!! for South Florida,thanks God!!!!, this thing is moving out to sea!!. I have great confidence in the NHC track,they have 2 planes in there mapping all weather conditions,so they know much better than all of us here in the blog.
Even though still puzzling that some of the reliable models take this depression much more West toward Florida? or just clipping the coast, again the experts at the NHC better know what they are doing!!,because this system is very close to the South East coast of the USA.
920. JRRP
What the ....
Quoting 917. overwash12:

There is no reason this can not get to cat #3 by Monday,Heading straight for The OBX of North Carolina!


Too early.
It is only my opinion, but this will fill in rather quickly, and may get a name this evening or tomorrow morning.



TGIOTS
Hi all nice to meet you.




Andrew, Wilma, Katrina, Charley,Georges