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Atlantic Disturbance 96L Remains Disorganized - For Now…

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:39 PM GMT on August 22, 2014

(By Steve Gregory - Substituting for Dr. Masters who is on Vacation.)

There has generally been little change overnight in disorganized tropical disturbance 96L, though the most recent upper level analysis and VIS imagery loops suggest the environment is becoming more conducive to cyclone formation within the next 12 hours, with the potential for further development to a strong Tropical Storm force cyclone later this weekend.

While the overall appearance of the disturbance remains poorly organized (with the appearance of at least 2 separate low level vortices during the last 36 hours} the most recent visible Satellite imagery loop suggests a primary surface circulation is located to the N/NE of Puerto Rico NEAR 19N/65.5W . However, at this point, limited surface/buoy/ship reports do not yet seem to clearly reflect this possible development.

While the overall satellite signature shows a rather elongated system, with convection widely dispersed, a burst of deep convection has developed over the last few hours near and across the NW and SE quadrants of the low level circulation center. San Juan Radar also depicts some 'banding' features developing to the SE of the newly forming center.

In addition, an upper level anticyclone has apparently formed over the last 3-6 hours near and just SW of the developing cyclone center. That said – wind shear still appears to be of moderate intensity near the center of the system (15Kt-20Kts) – though much lower shear values are clearly seen just SW of the center near the developing upper level anti-cyclone. Though these developments show a significant environmental improvement supporting cyclone development since yesterday – the nearby mountainous terrain of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico are likely to inhibit any rapid type of development during the next 12-36 hours.

The more reliable global model runs over the past 24 hours continue to call for a general track into the central Bahamas this weekend before turning northward Sunday as a break in the east-west orientated subtropical ridge to the north of the system develops further into a TROF over the next 48-72 hours, steering the system Northwestward and then Northward. Most every model (with 2 distinct exceptions) keep the cyclone away from the US mainland. (The CMC continues to track the system across south Florida – but this seems unlikely unless the system does NOT develop significantly for at least the next 72 hours – while the last OPNL ECMWF and GFDL model suite shows the storm first turning northward as the other major models do, but then suddenly turns the storm NW towards the Mid-Atlantic coast towards the middle of next week. However, the ECMWF Ensembles - which are typically much more reliable for developing systems - do NOT show this turn towards the coast.) Since the system has yet to become a well established cyclone, and upper level wind flow forecasts at these longer ranges during the warm season can be quite unreliable - all of these ‘outlier’ track forecasts remain highly suspect.

In addition, overall confidence in the intensity forecasts remains relatively low, though most of the more reliable, specialized hurricane models do call for a slow intensification to a CAT 1 storm after 72 hours as the storm begins to track northward away from the central Bahamas. Sea Surface Temps (SST’s) are very warm across the SW Atlantic near the Bahamas, with readings near or just over 29°C (~85°F), solidly supporting hurricane intensity, though the depth of the warm water remains relatively shallow (and a very slow moving storm would tend to upwell the somewhat cooler sub-surface water). All things considered, however, the model intensity forecasts subjectively look reasonable given the current stage of development.

A RECON is still planned for this afternoon, and I’ll have another update on this developing system late today.




Fig 1: The above VIS depicts an elongated, poorly organized disturbance with widely dispersed, though locally heavy, convection. Over the last few hours, a surface circulation appears to be developing NE of Puerto Rico with a strong convective burst noted to the N-NW of this circulation.



Fig 2: Wind Shear analysis (mid levels) shows moderate shear conditions in the 15-20Kt range in the vicinity of the primary low-mid level circulation. Much lower shear conditions are seen just south-southwest of the center. Since the shear analysis is automated, the values shown may not be very precise, though the very slow development is likely due in part to the less than optimal shear environment.




Fig 3: The most significant development since last night is the apparent development of an anti-cyclone at high levels, centered fairly close to the primary mid-level circulation center. Weak but distinct outflow channels are also apparent to the N-NW and South of the developing cyclone.



Fig 4: The lower level steering winds (used for a shallow / developing cyclones) clearly shows the east-west orientated sub-tropical ridge from the central Atlantic westward to the Gulf coast region, along with a developing weakness between the two separate High pressure centers. If the system does NOT develop, it will likely tend to continue W-NW towards Florida. However, any significant development, along with the global model forecasts for a break in the ridge line near the central Bahamas, should lead to the cyclone turning northward late this weekend as it tracks around the western periphery of the central Atlantic High pressure center.



Fig 5: Early cycle model runs are in very good agreement on the track of the cyclone ultimately turning away from the US mainland, though there is that 'sudden turn towards the coast' by a couple models that cannot be totally discounted.



Fig 6: Intensity forecasts have been fairly consistent over the past couple days, with slow intensification expected during the next 24-72 hrs, with an increase in intensity to CAT 1 Hurricane force during the 3-5 day period.


Steve

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

No active weather here until around 0700AST. My weather station is at Davis for repairs so no readings but I estimate on St. Croix we had between and inch and inch and a half rainfall with very little wind. It is dead calm now at 14:41 and the rain has ceased. Plants and cistern replenished so all good.
Quoting 476. MonsterTrough:



I was just typing the same thing. 28mph with that much westerly motion would keep south side development down due to heights of Hispanola and Cuba. I said yesterday no preditions until COC by HH or my eyes. NOLA to Maine = be aware. Florida to NC have your hurricane supplies ready and out.
Monster trough many people along the coast are depending on you!.What are you doing now at Trough headquarters?
Best Track Position and Intensity as of:

Friday, Aug. 22, 2014 18:00 Z

Location at the time:

127 statue miles (205 km) to the WNW (303) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).

Wind (1 min. avg.):

35 knots (~40 mph | 18 m/s | 65 km/h)

Pressure:

1009 mb (29.80 inHg | 1009 hPa)

Coordinates:

19.4N 67.7W

Source:

National Hurricane Center's (NHC) Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting (ATCF) System and not from any available advisory data
My website (www.tropicaltidbits.com) is currently experiencing record traffic, and for a mysterious reason, it is slowing down my site. It shouldn't be, but it is, so I would ask that those who like posting my graphics on the blog make an effort to rehost them to imgur or similar, just to give my server a break during this busy time. It's a general courtesy, actually, to rehost an image from another website so that WU's huge traffic doesn't choke the bandwidth of the other website.

Please don't take this as a deterrent from posting the graphics. They are there for you! But if you could try to re-host them, I would greatly appreciate it.

Thanks!

Levi
Quoting 491. Drakoen:

Here are your models.............


It's interesting the 18z BAMM models shifted way west after being east with the rest of the models.

There's the first of the shift to the west some have been predicting. Ugh! Here we go.
Quoting 482. GetReal:



96L is becoming a little better organized in appearance with some banding to the north and east starting to take shape. Just in time to slam into Hispaniola!
I'd probably volunteer to ride along in the HH into this storm...
507. eddye
im sorry but ppl need 2 be ready
Quoting 499. STORMW2014:

Euro with a major shift west, I knew this would happen


Nope.
Quoting 488. JNFlori30A:

Heat Index has dropped to only 129 now.. time to mow the grass!!


Approaching 110 in SE NC (high 96 so far)
Quoting 504. Levi32:

My website (www.tropicaltidbits.com) is currently experiencing record traffic, and for a mysterious reason, it is slowing down my site. It shouldn't be, but it is, so I would ask that those who like posting my graphics on the blog make an effort to rehost them to imgur or similar, just to give my server a break during this busy time. It's a general courtesy, actually, to rehost an image from another website so that WU's huge traffic doesn't choke the bandwidth of the other website.

Thanks!

Levi


Teach me how to do reanalysis!!
512. eddye
k cause ppl always sometimes let their guard down
Quoting 499. STORMW2014:

Euro with a major shift west, I knew this would happen



Euro didn't change, stop with the hype
Good afternoon all.... any chance the rain showers at my house right now might be the early bands of 96L?????



LOL.... okay, I admit to being facetious .... lol... over on the north coast of New Providence there isn't a sign that it's raining over my location.... However, I do note that advance showers associated with 96L are already impacting TCI, and I expect it will begin to be overcast and rainy in the NW Bahamas by tomorrow night, unless this slows down A LOT. Steering right now suggests any slowdown is more likely to happen on Sunday.... right over my head.... :o/
Quoting TylerStanfield:

Right click on the recon mission tab, and it will give you the option to refresh.

You know it's self refreshing?
WARNING:

The planet Earth is actively trying to remove excess ocean heat towards the northern pole.
Quoting 495. 900MB:

New to Google Earth. Watching recon and see some 32kt sustained winds popping up. Surface pressure around 1009mb.

But, help, can anyone tell me how to refresh the map on Google Earth?


Mine self refreshes when new data comes in.
Quoting 491. Drakoen:

Here are your models.............


It's interesting the 18z BAMM models shifted way west after being east with the rest of the models.

Which goes with my line of thinking this is too shallow of a system to feel a not so pronounced trough as with other storms like Bertha or Aurthur. The faster it goes the less influence of the trough. If it leaves it behind in the southern/central Bahamas as some models are thinking it will slow down. Florida will need to watch it very carefully.
A response to my question regarding the HWRF yesterday evening when it showed a direct hit to South Florida.

Jordan Brown says:
August 21, 2014 at 8:46 pm

The HWRF model has been very consistent showing a strong storm nearing South Florida. How serious should that model be taken given most other major models show a Northern turn?


palmharborforecastcenter says:
August 21, 2014 at 11:53 pm

At times, the HWRF can do good. However the thing with the HRWF and the GFDL is that they only sample the surrounding area of the storm%u2026about 6 %u2013 10 degrees in each direction%u2026so they are better for very short term track and strength%u2026The TVCA, TVCC and TVCN models are pretty much what we look at. When I attended the 201 National Hurricane Conference in Orlando, I brought up the question to Dr. Bevin%u2026he is the one who taught me which dynamic models to go with the majority of the time.


Thank you Thomas Walsh
Quoting 493. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

its not going into Hispaniola its skirting by along the northern coast lifting slowly all the while it travels


I disagree totally, the LLC is being pulled into the larger center of the overall storm negating the N movement and resulting in direct west movement into DR.
After all the hype, it hardly rained. Chemtrail aerosols have dried out whatever invests and waves.
I think it will miss the trough.

Quoting 463. washingtonian115:

Geez 96L is booking at 28mph.Does anybody think it'll miss the trough?.Is this suppose to slow down tomorrow?.
12z GFDL Ensembles

Recon has actually found nothing that would support a tropical storm at the current time.
Time: 18:32:30Z
Coordinates: 19.6333N 66.75W
Acft. Static Air Press: 986.1 mb (~ 29.12 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 208 meters (~ 682 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1009.8 mb (~ 29.82 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 116° at 37 knots (From the ESE at ~ 42.5 mph)
Air Temp: 23.4°C (~ 74.1°F)
Dew Pt: 23.1°C (~ 73.6°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 39 knots (~ 44.8 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 33 knots (~ 37.9 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 2 mm/hr (~ 0.08 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
Quoting 497. TylerStanfield:

Despite it's good satellite presentation, 96L still lacks a defined center. It's still a mess out there.

My best guess would be that we won't see a Tropical cyclone form from 96L until tomorrow.


Call me a skeptic, but I think Recon may find a center after 3:30 PM EDT.
Quoting 513. scottsvb:




Euro didn't change, stop with the hype


Oh, that was meant the UKMET
Quoting 515. TropicalAnalystwx13:


You know it's self refreshing?

Yes I do. But you can sometimes get data quicker if you refresh it manually.
528. eddye
lol
Quoting 406. EpsilonWeather:


Exactly what I was thinking. As long as Hispaniola doesn't disrupt the system too much (which it could), this could bomb out over the Bahamas.
Thank you for your support....

This is starting to look like one of those Jeanne / Betsy / 1929 type scenarios, where the storm starts to round the edge of the high into a break, only to have the break close and force the system west. A lot depends on how quickly this opening is going to close....


Indiana sees floods after up to 10 inches of rain

The weather service said seven to 10 inches of rain had fallen in eastern Grant and Blackford counties, with up to seven inches falling since midnight.

Link



CHICAGO (STMW) – Heavy rains have caused major flooding across much of the Chicago area overnight, especially near Midway International Airport, and in suburbs just south of Midway. At least one southwest suburban school district was forced to cancel classes at all its schools.

According to the National Weather Service, 4.5 inches fell at Midway between midnight and 6 a.m.; with most of that rain — 3.6 inches — falling in a 40 minute span starting shortly after 2 a.m.


Link

Quoting 491. Drakoen:

Here are your models.............


It's interesting the 18z BAMM models shifted way west after being east with the rest of the models.


The closer 96L gets to the US, the bigger the model spread is becoming. This could really catch people off-guard.
532. 900MB
Quoting 500. TylerStanfield:


Right click on the recon mission tab, and it will give you the option to refresh.



Thanks! Looks like we have some winds up to 40mph North of San Juan.
Quoting 497. TylerStanfield:

Despite it's good satellite presentation, 96L still lacks a defined center. It's still a mess out there.

My best guess would be that we won't see a Tropical cyclone form from 96L until tomorrow.

THEY HAVE TO GO SOUTH
COC can be seen on PR radar loop just SW of the SW end of PR
Link
12z UKMET
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 20.7N 72.6W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 24.08.2014 21.6N 73.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 24.08.2014 21.9N 75.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 25.08.2014 21.8N 76.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 25.08.2014 22.1N 77.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 26.08.2014 21.5N 79.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 26.08.2014 22.2N 80.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 27.08.2014 23.8N 82.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 27.08.2014 24.6N 85.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 28.08.2014 25.5N 88.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 28.08.2014 27.5N 90.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

and the next one..

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 15.5N 45.5W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 26.08.2014 16.6N 47.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 27.08.2014 16.8N 52.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 27.08.2014 17.4N 56.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 28.08.2014 17.7N 60.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 28.08.2014 18.4N 63.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE




Quoting 491. Drakoen:

Here are your models.............


It's interesting the 18z BAMM models shifted way west after being east with the rest of the models.
Translation:We don't know where the hell this is going after the Bahamas.Please have supplies kit on hand if necessary.
537. eddye
bam towards fl fl needs 2 watch this closely
Yep 12z UKMET in the central Gulf .

539. eddye
a lot of the models have it going close 2 fl
BTW, thanks to Dr. Gregory for standing for the good Doc, and could we get an update on Marie if at all possible? TYVM in advance....
Quoting 495. 900MB:

New to Google Earth. Watching recon and see some 32kt sustained winds popping up. Surface pressure around 1009mb.

But, help, can anyone tell me how to refresh the map on Google Earth?


Google Earth is probably nicer visually (zoom, etc.), but if you want to try something different, I plot the same stuff, along with some extra things, in regular web images that you can refresh easily.

Shameless plug ;)
Quoting 532. 900MB:



Thanks! Looks like we have some winds up to 40mph North of San Juan.

All of what is displayed on Google Earth's recon flight path wind barbs is flight level winds, which are above the surface. So 40 mph flight level winds typically translates down to 30-35 mph winds at the surface.
I see a potential low level circulation near 19.0N: 66.0W. I think this becomes exposed again and runs into Hispaniola, followed by another round of where's waldo, and then we get into the fun stuff tomorrow once it gains some latitude, slows down and moves away from the Greater Antilles.
Quoting 470. cheezemm2:



This has nothing to do with 96L, but does reflect the blog's thoughts on models over the past few days!




About as useful as making an accurate forecast off of this:

546. kwisp
Quoting 504. Levi32:

My website (www.tropicaltidbits.com) is currently experiencing record traffic, and for a mysterious reason, it is slowing down my site. It shouldn't be, but it is, so I would ask that those who like posting my graphics on the blog make an effort to rehost them to imgur or similar, just to give my server a break during this busy time. It's a general courtesy, actually, to rehost an image from another website so that WU's huge traffic doesn't choke the bandwidth of the other website.

Please don't take this as a deterrent from posting the graphics. They are there for you! But if you could try to re-host them, I would greatly appreciate it.

Thanks!

Levi


Drudge linked to your map...
Quoting 534. stormpetrol:
COC can be seen on PR radar loop just SW of the SW end of PR
Link


Looking at the same loop, I see it just off the NE tip of the DR. I just don't think there's any COC right now, and interaction with Hispaniola will make an even bigger mess of it.
Quoting 546. kwisp:



Drudge linked to your map...


Do you have a link?
Quoting 537. eddye:

bam towards fl fl needs 2 watch this closely


And.. it's both the shallow and medium Bamm (Ridge building in quicker than thought)??
12z UKMET


551. eddye
omg wats that
Interesting look formation taking place. (This image is 4 minutes old, so it might have changed since then)

Unfortunately for 96L's developing center, its current heading and speed have it setup with a date in the DR.

Quoting 550. ncstorm:

12z UKMET





I posted it first... why do you need to post it again?? Common standard you look at previous posts before posting....
Quoting 534. stormpetrol:

COC can be seen on PR radar loop just SW of the SW end of PR
Link

Just using my eyes, I believe what you're seeing is the wave axis itself while the actual suspected center lies about here:
Hey Gro! How's it going these days?

Still watching Hurricanes I see.
Quoting 542. Levi32:



Google Earth is probably nicer visually (zoom, etc.), but if you want to try something different, I plot the same stuff, along with some extra things, in regular web images that you can refresh easily.

Shameless plug ;)
Thanks Levi.. I learn much from your posts.. you are free to shamelessly plug all you want!
100 NM N-NE of San Juan:

Station 41043
NDBC
Location: 21.061N 64.966W Date: Fri, 22 Aug 2014 17:50:00 UTCWinds: E (100) at 19.4 kt gusting to 23.3 kt
Significant Wave Height: 10.8 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 9 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ESE (107)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.93 in and falling
Air Temperature: 83.3 F
Dew Point: 77.9 F
Water Temperature: 83.8 F

Western Coast of PR:

Station MGZP4
Puerto Rico Seismic Network
Location: 18.218N 67.159W
Date: Fri, 22 Aug 2014 18:18:00 UTC
Winds: SSE (150) at 1.0 kt gusting to 2.9 kt
Air Temperature: 79.5 F
Water Temperature: 84.2 F

Eastern Coast of PR:

Station FRDP4
Puerto Rico Seismic Network
Location:
 18.335N 65.631W
Date: Fri, 22 Aug 2014 18:18:00 UTC
Winds: SSE (160) at 9.9 kt gusting to 19.0 kt
Air Temperature: 76.5 F
Dew Point: 75.2 F

Not much happening wind-wise on the Western end of PR closer to Hispanola and the Bouy between PR and Hispanola is not providing any wind-speed data.
96L doesn't want to say hi to the fishes after the Bahamas....Where's the trough with the eviction notice?.
It definitely looks like models are going in two different camps.

Quoting Drakoen:
Here are your models.............


It's interesting the 18z BAMM models shifted way west after being east with the rest of the models.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


I do indeed think there is a LLC RECON just needs to fly further S to find it now with that I'd say it's S of that position so if you account W movement of models plus drop it S it would be looking very interesting them models
Quoting 553. MississippiWx:

Unfortunately for 96L's developing center, its current heading and speed have it setup with a date in the DR.




I agree, but the overall circulation is huge, its bound to develop another LLC that will become dominant.
Post 522, Grothar.

96L stretches from Trinidad all the way to the Bahamas.
Big system.
Nhc needs to investigate further south into the Mona passage if some more convection builds over that suspected area then we should have Cristobal could get better define by 6pm
Quoting 557. JNFlori30A:

Thanks Levi.. I learn much from your posts.. you are free to shamelessly plug all you want!


+1000 - i agree. I hope one day to see Levi working with Dr. Masters and company here.
Quoting 534. stormpetrol:

COC can be seen on PR radar loop just SW of the SW end of PR
Link


Quoting 553. MississippiWx:

Unfortunately for 96L's developing center, its current heading and speed have it setup with a date in the DR.


Which will probably help with it being more west.. The models will reflect this more tomorrow,.
35.0 knots (~ 40.2 mph)
Tropical Storm

In flight notes
569. 900MB
Quoting 543. TylerStanfield:


All of what is displayed on Google Earth's recon flight path wind barbs is flight level winds, which are above the surface. So 40 mph flight level winds typically translates down to 30-35 mph winds at the surface.



There were a couple readings around 34 knots on the SFMR (surface estimate).
Quoting 556. Dakster:

Hey Gro! How's it going these days?

Still watching Hurricanes I see.


Dak. Going OK. What else is there to do? Matlock doesn't come on until 4.
Quoting 548. Levi32:



Do you have a link?


http://www.drudgereport.com/

center of the page, right below the title
18z Model Suite.



12z Model suite.

Link

A thing of beauty. Can't wait to see what she looks like tomorrow.
I just cannot believe what I read here sometimes..i just cant..
Quoting 560. Grothar:
It definitely looks like models are going in two different camps.



It's like late yesterday....
96L is being affected by some moderate shear and the land interaction; the real sweet spot shear wise will be North of Hispanola/Southern Bahamas depending of what emerges on that side:


Tropical Storm force winds are way out there 149 miles north of P.R.
Quoting 570. Grothar:



Dak. Going OK. What else is there to do? Matlock doesn't come on until 4.


Haven't you seen every Matlock about four times by now?
Now that they have Tropical Storm force winds did they ever find a LLC?
Quoting EdwardinAlaska:










Actually, others are just now starting to say the same thing. You were ahead of the curve on this one.
Actually, he's been repeating this type of post for the past two days, so I guess he's really been ahead of the curve...
Quoting 558. weathermanwannabe:

100 NM N-NE of San Juan:

Station 41043
NDBC
Location: 21.061N 64.966Wbr style="font-family: Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">Date: Fri, 22 Aug 2014 17:50:00 UTCbr style="font-family: Roboto, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px;">Winds: E (100�) at 19.4 kt gusting to 23.3 kt
Significant Wave Height: 10.8 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 9 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ESE (107�)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.93 in and falling
Air Temperature: 83.3 F
Dew Point: 77.9 F
Water Temperature: 83.8 F

Western Coast of PR:

Station MGZP4
Puerto Rico Seismic Network
Location: 18.218N 67.159W
Date: Fri, 22 Aug 2014 18:18:00 UTC
Winds: SSE (150�) at 1.0 kt gusting to 2.9 kt
Air Temperature: 79.5 F
Water Temperature: 84.2 F

Eastern Coast of PR:

Station FRDP4
Puerto Rico Seismic Network
Location:
 18.335N 65.631W
Date: Fri, 22 Aug 2014 18:18:00 UTC
Winds: SSE (160�) at 9.9 kt gusting to 19.0 kt
Air Temperature: 76.5 F
Dew Point: 75.2 F

Not much happening wind-wise on the Western end of PR closer to Hispanola and the Bouy between PR and Hispanola is not providing any wind-speed data.


Mona Passage has become the broad center...?
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Now that they have Tropical Storm force winds did they ever find a LLC?
Not yet, and the winds are just like yesterday, isolated.
Really cool to see the effect the mountains have on convective process. Notice on the northern side of the DR the convection is really building as air rises and piles up against the mountains because of northerly winds. However, the southern side of the island is having the opposite effect as the down-sloping winds are resulting in sinking air and, therefore, no convection. That's why the southwest 1/4th of the system is missing.

My website (www.tropicaltidbits.com) is currently experiencing record traffic, and for a mysterious reason, it is slowing down my site. It shouldn't be, but it is, so I would ask that those who like posting my graphics on the blog make an effort to rehost them to imgur or similar, just to give my server a break during this busy time. It's a general courtesy, actually, to rehost an image from another website so that WU's huge traffic doesn't choke the bandwidth of the other website.



jim cantore showed your link on his twitter feed this morning also
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
96L is being affected by some moderate shear and the land interaction; the real sweet spot shear wise will be North of Hispanola/Southern Bahamas depending of what emerges on that side:




if it keeps the Anticyclone shear should not be a problem
Quoting 570. Grothar:



Dak. Going OK. What else is there to do? Matlock doesn't come on until 4.



I thought you watched Judge Judy?

Looks like the models.... they are a shifting....
May be way off base with my opinion but I am sticking to my guns. If there is any center it resides somewhere between the SW tip of PR and SE tip of DR.

Congrats to Levi!!! He has made it onto the BIG stage with The Drudge Report linking onto his site.
Quoting Grothar:


Interesting to see that the LBAR, the most eastern leaning model on the 12z, shifted towards Florida on the 18z. Talk about a 180 degree shift in opinion.
Quoting 577. Sfloridacat5:

Tropical Storm force winds are way out there 149 miles north of P.R.
Goes to show the size of this system..Reminds me o Sandy in that respect.
Quoting 579. Sfloridacat5:
Now that they have Tropical Storm force winds did they ever find a LLC?
Not yet. Still no west winds found.
Quoting 588. ProgressivePulse:

May be way off base with my opinion but I am sticking to my guns. If there is any center it resides somewhere between the SW tip of PR and SE tip of DR.



I totally agree with you!
Quoting MississippiWx:
Really cool to see the effect the mountains have on convective process. Notice on the northern side of the DR the convection is really building as air rises and piles up against the mountains because of northerly winds. However, the southern side of the island is having the opposite effect as the down-sloping winds are resulting in sinking air and, therefore, no convection. That's why the southwest 1/4th of the system is missing.

Which goes along with predictions so far. The north side is where the center should develop and deepen, which will slow down the forward motion and tend to want to bend the storm northerly.
Quoting 587. Dakster:




I thought you watched Judge Judy?

Looks like the models.... they are a shifting....


I told them last night, but no one would listen. :)
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Now that they have Tropical Storm force winds did they ever find a LLC?


not a single West wind so far
Quoting 589. GetReal:

Congrats to Levi!!! He has made it onto the BIG stage with The Drudge Report linking onto his site.


He better get a server farm now...
Quoting 588. ProgressivePulse:

May be way off base with my opinion but I am sticking to my guns. If there is any center it resides somewhere between the SW tip of PR and SE tip of DR.




Its actually NW of PR and NE of DR.
Quoting 578. nrtiwlnvragn:



Haven't you seen every Matlock about four times by now?


Yes, but at my age they are all like new.
Quoting 571. vlaming:



http://www.drudgereport.com/

center of the page, right below the title


Well what do ya know.
Quoting 588. ProgressivePulse:

May be way off base with my opinion but I am sticking to my guns. If there is any center it resides somewhere between the SW tip of PR and SE tip of DR.


I think there are still two centers..By this time tomorrow, depending how much damage and where, we will finally have a center we can track.
Does anyone have an IR simulation from yesterday afternoon's HWRF to post at 24hrs? If I remember correctly it really looks an awful lot like 96L's current presentation.
Quoting 584. ricderr:

My website (www.tropicaltidbits.com) is currently experiencing record traffic, and for a mysterious reason, it is slowing down my site. It shouldn't be, but it is, so I would ask that those who like posting my graphics on the blog make an effort to rehost them to imgur or similar, just to give my server a break during this busy time. It's a general courtesy, actually, to rehost an image from another website so that WU's huge traffic doesn't choke the bandwidth of the other website.



jim cantore showed your link on his twitter feed this morning also


Cantore's a famous guy, but could never bog my server down. Drudge, on the other hand, might be what's causing me problems.
Quoting 531. MississippiWx:



The closer 96L gets to the US, the bigger the model spread is becoming. This could really catch people off-guard.


Yes it very well could. It's really still highly uncertain where this thing is going. Even the eastern most solutions have discrepancies among each other.
Quoting 599. TheDawnAwakening:



Its actually NW of PR and NE of DR.


Recon has yet to find any evidence of a circulation up there, could be that there just isn't one.. But CIMSS suggests that the lowest level of rotation resides to the S. And please this is just my personal opinion based on what I am seeing.

Plenty of 40mph winds from recon now.
Gonna take another "long break"; will check back in a few hours.  All the observations as to the relatively large size of this disturbance are well taken.  It's going to take some time for this large area to consolidate around a well defined lower level coc and the land interaction is not helping matters much...............Even with tropical storm wind speeds in the outer proto-bands/convective areas it's a tough call to designate a TD without a Hunter closing it off.  If Hipanola was not in the way, it would be a different story at the moment perhaps.      
Quoting 600. Grothar:



Yes, but at my age they are all like new.


With your memory of prehistoric events you witnessed, I don't believe that about your memory.
Quoting 588. ProgressivePulse:

May be way off base with my opinion but I am sticking to my guns. If there is any center it resides somewhere between the SW tip of PR and SE tip of DR.



Are those arc clouds shooting out on the west side of this? Indicative of collapsing storms. Dry air nearby?
Quoting 588. ProgressivePulse:

May be way off base with my opinion but I am sticking to my guns. If there is any center it resides somewhere between the SW tip of PR and SE tip of DR.




Agreed progressive. If you look at 17N 69.5 W in your last few frames of the image you can see the low clouds that were moving SW change direction to move E and wrap into the storm, so W winds are possible there now just a little lower than the plane looked


this would support this

Quoting 588. ProgressivePulse:

May be way off base with my opinion but I am sticking to my guns. If there is any center it resides somewhere between the SW tip of PR and SE tip of DR.
Quoting 605. Levi32:



Cantore's a famous guy, but could never bog my server down. Drudge, on the other hand, might be what's causing me problems.


You never know, may get some donations rollin in :p
For the record, this will be the latest appearance of the season's third storm since 1992.
616. 900MB
Recent Ob on the North side:

40.9 knots (~ 47.1 mph)
Tropical Storm
Quoting 587. Dakster:




I thought you watched Judge Judy?

Looks like the models.... they are a shifting....
That's why it's always beneficial to have your supplies kit ready.Some models were so bad (I'm looking at you GFS) this winter that some of our biggest snow storms were not really locked in until 24 hours before the event.Be prepared and be ready to take quick action in case of a emergency.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Interesting to see that the LBAR, the most eastern leaning model on the 12z, shifted towards Florida on the 18z. Talk about a 180 degree shift in opinion.
Since the LBAR is a permutation of the GFDL, it sure looks like something has gone haywire with this run for the two to be so different.
Quoting 596. Grothar:



I told them last night, but no one would listen. :)


You should be used to that by now.
40.9 knots (~ 47.1 mph)
Tropical Storm
Quoting 900MB:
Recent Ob on the North side:

40.9 knots (~ 47.1 mph)
Tropical Storm
Tropical storm force winds found in one sector....
Quoting 620. Sfloridacat5:

40.9 knots (~ 47.1 mph)
Tropical Storm


No COC so no TS.
some modeles move back to the west
96L moving at 29mph is going to miss the trough and that is the reason for the major shift west in the BAM Suit.




Even some of the GFS ensembles have moved west.
Quoting 599. TheDawnAwakening:



Its actually NW of PR and NE of DR.


Looks like the (*center*) is being pulled in towards the DR if you look closely
626. 900MB
Quoting 605. Levi32:



Cantore's a famous guy, but could never bog my server down. Drudge, on the other hand, might be what's causing me problems.


Yep, Drudge will do it.
Quoting 411. SevoReb:

Hey guys, new to the party here, could someone enlighten me on the trough that is expected to scoop 96L and push it OTS? I'm trying to grasp the concept, I'm a beginner. Thanks
Welcome to the mayhem.... lol ...

Quoting 413. NasBahMan:


Thanks for thinking about us island folk....we are generally fairly well prepared for these things as we have had lots of practice over the years. Even when a monster threatens, and we certainly don't expect a monster out of 96L, we don't tend to panic, we just do what we have to do and ride it out.

Hey, NBMan, did you notice the sternos and tins of tuna prominently displayed at the ends of the aisles in the grocery store? I think local businesses are paying attention.... I heard one or two people confidently espousing the view that we are likely to get some goodly rain, but the storm is going to turn off before it gets to Eleuthera....
I think pple are paying attention.
Quoting 419. FLWaterFront:

Suggestion: Have *some* faith in the ECMWF and the GFS, not so much in the UKMET, CMC, HWRF, et al. Beware also the strong urge to lock onto models which depict doom-like scenarios even before a system has been officially classified as a tropical cyclone (Tropical depression, TS, hurricane). These are very highly unreliable and this early in the game, such scenarios almost never come to pass.
Actually I think we have seen some fairly good 3-day consensus from the models. Even the outliers have been suggesting reasonable alternative scenarios if the synoptics were to play out differently. Additionally I like to remind pple right about now of some good advice StormW once gave me, that is [in a nutshell] to study the current situation and determine which of the model scenarios seems most likely based on that.
Quoting 501. Crucian:

No active weather here until around 0700AST. My weather station is at Davis for repairs so no readings but I estimate on St. Croix we had between and inch and inch and a half rainfall with very little wind. It is dead calm now at 14:41 and the rain has ceased. Plants and cistern replenished so all good.
I've been enjoying the following of this system, but the best news so far is from fellow bloggers in the NE Antilles commenting on the rain they have gotten. I hope the SE Bahamas and TCI get a similar benefit without heavy winds accompanying the rain ....
Quoting 611. fmbill:


Are those arc clouds shooting out on the west side of this? Indicative of collapsing storms. Dry air nearby?


There is a small slice of it to the west.


Quoting 601. Levi32:



Well what do ya know.
what you said on twitter makes perfect sense. either gets hooked NE or drags its way west. no way it goes NW right into coast as blocking high is right there. all comes down to how much the trough influences it. how would conditions be in the eastern gulf if it managed to sneak there?
It looks to me... and this is my own personal, unprofessional opinion, that this storm is actually suffering the opposite of the storms last year.....

This storm at the mid and upper levels is almost perfect for a tropical system.. It has a decent to good outflow, nice upper-level anticyclone, and some moderate spin....

It's the low level that is screwing this storm up... unlike the past years where shear tore the top of it off, it seems that 96 here cannot get the bottom of it right... Lacking of a closed low level center, multiple centers....

Now that being said... we have seen cases of multiple centers in hurricanes, I mean just take a few looks at Lowell yesterday and you'll see what I mean... It had 3 meso-centers rotating inside that massive eye yesterday....

However, it just doesn't seem that this system can consolidate that well... Has a very very nice comma shape to it, and like Marie, this system is absolutely massive in size.....

Problem is, it takes a while to consolidate, and there's a lot of ground to be covered for that to happen....

And even if there is a southern center southwest of PR... I highly doubt it survives the DR and Haiti....

This system's fate I think is gonna be decided over the next 24 hours or so....
Quoting 620. Sfloridacat5:

40.9 knots (~ 47.1 mph)
Tropical Storm



No LLC found yet; no west winds.
Quoting 624. StormTrackerScott:
96L moving at 29mph is going to miss the trough and that is the reason for the major shift west in the BAM Suit.




We will see how the other models will follow (UKMET-EURO-CMC)
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


No COC so no TS.


But the winds are close to 50 mph. That in itself is pretty significant. It won't be long before it closes off a center.
If you analyze the shear, the ULAC is slightly displaced to the east which is creating about 10-20 kts of SSWerly shear over the center. It's my personal belief that the MLC is displaced to the NNE of the center.

Quoting washingtonian115:
That's why it's always beneficial to have your supplies kit ready.Some models were so bad (I'm looking at you GFS) this winter that some of our biggest snow storms were not really locked in until 24 hours before the event.Be prepared and be ready to take quick action in case of a emergency.


Hey Washi, how would you feel about the mouth of the Chesapeake in the right front quadrant of a category 2 hurricane?
I have to admit when I woke up this morning I did not expect it to be as far west as it was from last night.
637. 900MB
Quoting 622. StormTrackerScott:



No COC so no TS.


If they are looking for West winds, if they are there, they will have to fly further South, which they might. Its a big system, they'll probably make it South of the passage.....We'll see...
Quoting GetReal:



No LLC found yet; no west winds.


Yeah, just reporting the flight notes.
Quoting 624. StormTrackerScott:

96L moving at 29mph is going to miss the trough and that is the reason for the major shift west in the BAM Suit.





Correct, but will it continue to Usain Bolt its way at near 30mph? That's the question. Once that weakness opens up, a slowdown should occur.
Quoting 617. washingtonian115:

That's why it's always beneficial to have your supplies kit ready.Some models were so bad (I'm looking at you GFS) this winter that some of our biggest snow storms were not really locked in until 24 hours before the event.Be prepared and be ready to take quick action in case of a emergency.


In the last frontier you need to be more prepared than I was in Hurricane Country. We have weather events that can prevent food shipments for a week or so. Earthquakes and Volcanoes come to mind and there are no models or must notice given. Since Every store here uses the same warehouse (WalMart, Target, FredMeyer, Carrs, 3 Bears, Costco, etc...) and since things are done "Just in Time" - there is only a 3-day food supply on hand at any given time here. Anyways, I was told to have at least 2 if not 3 weeks of non-perishables stock piled for you to survive on.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
May be way off base with my opinion but I am sticking to my guns. If there is any center it resides somewhere between the SW tip of PR and SE tip of DR.



I think I can see the center in that last frame just to the N of the eastern end of DR.
96L looks great so imagine how it will progress once it steers WNW of Hispaniola WITH a defined COC tomorrow.
Quoting 625. yankees440:


Looks like the (*center*) is being pulled in towards the DR if you look closely


Agree with both of you... this is about to get (even more) interesting.
I think the center is around 17.7N/68W
Quoting 900MB:


If they are looking for West winds, if they are there, they will have to fly further South, which they might. Its a big system, they'll probably make it South of the passage.....We'll see...


Yes, they are not in the right area to find west winds.
We'll have to see if they head back south or leave that up to the next recon flight.
blockquote class='blogquote'>Quoting 632. rmbjoe1954:



We will see how the other models will follow (UKMET-EURO-CMC)


The models that are east are going off the old position.
Quoting 632. rmbjoe1954:



We will see how the other models will follow (UKMET-EURO-CMC)


The models that are east are going off the old position as 96L is covering a lot of ground fast. Charley was moving at 26mph when he whipped thru.
Remember Irene was a "moving blob" with 50mph winds before she was classified.No LLC no classification.
Looks like the NHC is sticking to there guns on this trough, judging on there 5 day outlook with 96.
649. 900MB
Quoting 641. WatchingThisOne:



I think I can see the center in that last frame just to the NE of the eastern end of DR.


That's what I am seeing, a small curl in the lower level around 69W/19-20N
My best guess is that it's near Mona Is. Likely just E-ESE

I think the old LLC that got thrown out yesterday but didn't want to leave the system partially open is once again naked and about to swallow a boulder called Dom. Rep. the open half spin is drifting WSW saying bye new LLC near SW PR is helping to get rid of its former spin
Quoting 639. nash36:



Correct, but will it continue to Usain Bolt its way at near 30mph? That's the question. Once that weakness opens up, a slowdown should occur.
Kind of unnerving that some models that "recurve" are only going anywhere from N to NNW keeping the storm west of 70W
Quoting 650. wunderkidcayman:

My best guess is that it's near Mona Is. Likely just E-ESE

I think the old LLC that got thrown out yesterday but didn't want to leave the system partially open is once again naked and about to swallow a boulder called Dom. Rep. the open half spin is drifting WSW saying bye new LLC near SW PR is helping to get rid of its former spin


I'm sorry.. what?
Quoting Dakster:


In the last frontier you need to be more prepared than I was in Hurricane Country. We have weather events that can prevent food shipments for a week or so. Earthquakes and Volcanoes come to mind and there are no models or must notice given. Since Every store here uses the same warehouse (WalMart, Target, FredMeyer, Carrs, 3 Bears, Costco, etc...) and since things are done "Just in Time" - there is only a 3-day food supply on hand at any given time here. Anyways, I was told to have at least 2 if not 3 weeks of non-perishables stock piled for you to survive on.


What spurred such a relocation Dak?
Quoting 635. wxgeek723:



Hey Washi, how would you feel about the mouth of the Chesapeake in the right front quadrant of a category 2 hurricane?

It's not welcomed.Lot's of build up around there since Isabel.
96L moving wnw at near 30 mph WOW expect a shift west in the models likely between baha and Sfl
Quoting 620. Sfloridacat5:

40.9 knots (~ 47.1 mph)
Tropical Storm
need a west wind
Lovely shape. Growing stronger!
Quoting 655. chrisdscane:

96L moving wnw at near 30 mph WOW expect a shift west in the models likely between baha and Sfl


Instead of naming it Cristobal when it develops, should call it Speedy Gonzalez or The OceanRunner......











































Station 42059
NDBC
Location: 15.186N 67.478W
Date: Fri, 22 Aug 2014 18:50:00 UTC

Winds: SSW (200°) at 7.8 kt gusting to 7.8 kt
Significant Wave Height: 3.0 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 6 sec
Mean Wave Direction: NNE (20°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.80 in
Air Temperature: 82.2 F
Dew Point: 76.8 F
Water Temperature: 83.7 F

come on HHs fly south in this area
Quoting stormpetrol:
I think the center is around 17.7N/68W

Agreed

I think the center is around 17.9N and /68W
Possible circulation trying to form just north of the eastern tip of the DR. Pressure at a buoy in the Mona passage dropping decently.


Latest steering layer for 96L that just came out. 96L is quickly approaching the weakness mentioned by Drak and by all reason should begin to slow, or begin a more northerly turn. Then again with 96L about to interact with Hispaniola and remain disorganized it may just slide underneath that opening and continue on the more westerly track that the UKMET has been indicating.
Issac 2012 was "supposed" to hit a weakness (trough) and go east of FL. Got tangled with Hispaniola, ridge built in & off to the Gulf- HurricaneTracker.
Quoting 660. wunderkidcayman:


Agreed


if so...does Hispaniola keep it from developing...remaining a wave...and continuing west into the GOM?
At work and actually have work to do so can't read back...but I am sure these has created a stir.

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Hurricane Hunters in 96-L now. Notice the wind shift on the north side that they recorded:
Quoting SSL1441:


I'm sorry.. what?
The lack of punctuation takes its evil toll...
This thing gets south and west of the southern Bahamas, could be big changes in tracks.
Quoting 641. WatchingThisOne:



I think I can see the center in that last frame just to the N of the eastern end of DR.


The two centers are much closer to each other than they were this morning. One at 18N 68W, the other at 19.5 68.5. I believe they would merge shortly if they weren't running out of real estate!
If it's moving at almost 30 mph, will it get that disrupted going over DR?
Quoting 504. Levi32:

My website (www.tropicaltidbits.com) is currently experiencing record traffic, and for a mysterious reason, it is slowing down my site. It shouldn't be, but it is, so I would ask that those who like posting my graphics on the blog make an effort to rehost them to imgur or similar, just to give my server a break during this busy time. It's a general courtesy, actually, to rehost an image from another website so that WU's huge traffic doesn't choke the bandwidth of the other website.

Please don't take this as a deterrent from posting the graphics. They are there for you! But if you could try to re-host them, I would greatly appreciate it.

Thanks!

Levi
Remember once the NHC site crashed due to traffic overload.... can't remember which storm it happened during...
Quoting 596. Grothar:



I told them last night, but no one would listen. :)
WEll, I would have listened, but I was prolly asleep... lol ...
Quoting 657. congaline:

Lovely shape. Growing stronger!
Are you talking about yourself or 96L...LOL How the weather in Sebring today?
Quoting 662. Drakoen:

Possible circulation trying to form just north of the eastern tip of the DR. Pressure at a buoy in the Mona passage dropping decently.


I was thinking similarly...although your opinion carries a heck of a lot more weight than mine.

regardless of where the center maybe, 96L overall convection has spread further south and west over the past few hours.
Well I see the 12z ECMWF is out to sea without turning back towards the coast.
679. FOREX
So when I left for work this morning the excitement was a possible coc south of PR. Is that still in the discussion?
Quoting 577. Sfloridacat5:

Tropical Storm force winds are way out there 149 miles north of P.R.


Already pushing some kind of quick hit swell FL to NC. Small, but probably clean in 2-3 days. Then we will see what happens...
If we get any tropical system here with this excessive heat and humidity it would explode..omg the ammo it has here..whew.
We have beat yesterday in S C IL, 82 dew pt @ 87 for a 106 HX. Winds are now SW - SSW, still light and have dropped to 29.95". Satellite image appears to show high's circ moving S to SE. Feel for the HS boys playing their "Gatorade"
intersquad game tonight.

I agree 96s circ appears further SW, guess we'll see if they head down that way. Either way mountains are def impacting, will be interesting to see what happens over next 24 hrs.
Well thanks, I've been eating right and exercising.

Quoting 657. congaline:

Lovely shape. Growing stronger!
IMO HH found a COC within the mona passage, not north of it.
Great to see you on here, Steve. I still have printouts of your blogs from the several days leading up to Katrina. I live in sight of the GOM in Mississippi, and was so tired from staying up all night on Weather Underground and working all day, that I just stayed put for the storm. Little serious damage to the house, but we lost all utilities for several weeks so evacuated to the mountains of NC two days after Katrina hit. Still living in the same house, hoping that we never get a storm with Camille's wind speeds and Katrina's size (storm surge) combined.
TROPICAL STORM MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014

...MARIE FORECAST TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A LARGE AND POWERFUL MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 104.8W
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.8 WEST. MARIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS
DIRECTION OF MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H
...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND MARIE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT
AND A MAJOR HURRICANE BY SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB...29.39 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MARIE ARE ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD ALONG OVER THE WEEKEND AND BEGIN AFFECTING
THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE
LIKELY TO CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
Quoting Drakoen:
Possible circulation trying to form just north of the eastern tip of the DR. Pressure at a buoy in the Mona passage dropping decently.


if so FINALLY we start having a reasonable
debate on track.