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Atlantic Disturbance 96L (Interim Update)

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:46 PM GMT on August 23, 2014

(By Steve Gregory - Substituting for Dr. Masters who is on Vacation.)

Over the past few hours, a low level circulation appears to be developing in the vicinity of 21°N/73°W (near Great Inagua Island) based on both RECON reports and high resolution VIS imagery loops.

While there is some convection developing close to this circulation feature, and there have been A/C sampled wind reports of gale force– it’s probably a ‘toss-up’ whether NHC will officially ‘call’ this Tropical Storm Cristobal within the next couple of hours – or wait for additional convection and confirmation that this is in fact, the development of a definitive circulation center. Regardless of classification, the central circulation is moving Northwestward at about 15Kts, and will be moving into the central Bahamas on Sunday with tropical storm conditions.

There continues to be significant variations among all the models on the future evolution of this cyclone, but the general consensus is that the storms’ forward motion will slow during the next 24-48 hours as steering currents weaken in response to the weak TROF off the east coast that extends southward towards the NW Bahamas. At the same time, a slow but steady increase in intensity appears likely, with the storm reaching the NW Bahamas by late Monday.

The threat of CAT 1 hurricane conditions anywhere from southern Florida to the Mid-Atlantic coast continues – though this is certainly not a forgone conclusion as several reliable models continue to forecast the storm to turn northward and then northeastward by Monday and Tues, remaining well offshore without making landfall - paralleling the east coast from Florida to North Carolina.

Elsewhere in the Tropical Atlantic...

A broad, large scale easterly wave located in the central Atlantic is moving westward with little shower activity, while a strong disturbance has moved off the African coast and is also moving westward at ~20Kts. This second disturbance bears monitoring – but at this time, is unlikely to develop for at least the next 5 or more days.



Fig 1: VIS imagery loops show a general low level circulation center near 21N°/73°W and has been confirmed by RECON over the past 2 hours. The system is now moving Northwestward at 18Kts.


I’ll have a complete update late Sunday morning.

Steve Gregory


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 1402. Sfloridacat5:

Noticeable shift to the east with the NHC cone from late yesterday. Christobal doesn't come anywhere close to the U.S. if it follows the forecasted path.


It's time to start looking for the next system.


See this is exactly what I find wrong with this blog. You have a developing storm, if it's TRULY you are interested in following storms, why does it matter where it is going ? You should still be interested because it's a tropical system, and interesting to follow.

The implication you give is that you are only interested if it is going to cause death and destruction. And shame on the rest of you guys for not calling him out on it.
Quoting 1493. Climate175:

Where are you trough deniars now?
I gave Cristobal a chance to get inside the Gulf.But looks like the trough wants to take this one as well.
Cristobal:



Firing off plenty of good convection. Would be nice to see it become a hurricane as it goes out to sea (and hopefully not hitting Bermuda).
Quoting 1502. washingtonian115:

I gave Cristobal a chance to get inside the Gulf.But looks like the trough wants to take this one as well.
Not you. I was was talking about the people who talked bad about the snow and who said troughs will be non-exsistent with the season, also laughing at the fact leaves were changing color, I honestly really don't care. They are in for a treat.
1506. scott39

Quoting 1493. Climate175:

Where are you trough deniars now? What is a""trough deniar" Climate? Lol

1507. Patrap


I gave Cristobal to be a hurricane and going out to sea
1509. sar2401
Quoting georgia325:

Would a hurricane in the gulf also be beneficial to the large dead zone bringing oxygenated water to the surface
Not as long as the Mississippi continues to flow into the Gulf. The dead zone is huge (6700 sq miles) and deep. Even a cat 5 doesn't cause enough overturning to really affect waters that deep. Even if it was possible, the effect would be temporary. The Mississippi drains about 40% of the US and 70% of the farming areas. The fertilizer runoff combined with industrial pollution and human sewage load is much bigger than the biggest hurricane could affect.
Wow.
Quoting 1508. hurricanes2018:

I gave Cristobal to be a hurricane and going out to sea


HUH???
Any chance we get something to spin up in gulf at tail end of the front ? I think there was a earlier model that showed this as a possibility.
1513. Patrap
Quoting 1501. pmzqqzmp:



See this is exactly what I find wrong with this blog. You have a developing storm, if it's TRULY you are interested in following storms, why does it matter where it is going ? You should still be interested because it's a tropical system, and interesting to follow.

The implication you give is that you are only interested if it is going to cause death and destruction. And shame on the rest of you guys for not calling him out on it.
I don't think he/she stated anything about his opinion on if it's good or bad that the storm will not becoming close to the U.S., or that he/she is not going to track it. For all we know the person is thrilled it is not coming to the U.S. Everyone has their own agenda why they come to this blog; some want death and destruction, some like learning about weather or storms, some are scared and want to make sure where it is going etc. Chill Please!
Cristobal is still taking some noticeable jogs to the west, I'm still not 100% convinced he's going out to sea. Even still, out to sea would imply he's not affecting any land, but since before he finally got his name, he's been quite the rainmaker. He's been sitting over the same islands with his deepest convection inundating them for a while now.
If I sound harsh, it's because this is not a good day for me. It's an anniversary I'd rather not remember, but can never get away from, because it completely changed my life.

We all know what today is, and I can tell you I barely escaped with my life, trapped in a house, that lost it's north wall, and the whole roof, and every door and window blown out. I had lost my wife the year before to cancer, and then all of my memories of her & our life together were destroyed by that monster.

When you guys go on "wishcasting" remember there are people like myself that do monitor this blog to gleen real info about what might be happening to our lives and property.

THIS IS REAL TO US, not fun & games and not a "hobby".
It doesn't get much better than this.

1518. Patrap
If you expect logic from a broad spectrum of Bloggers here, your gonna be sadly disappointed.
1519. sar2401
Quoting pmzqqzmp:


See this is exactly what I find wrong with this blog. You have a developing storm, if it's TRULY you are interested in following storms, why does it matter where it is going ? You should still be interested because it's a tropical system, and interesting to follow.

The implication you give is that you are only interested if it is going to cause death and destruction. And shame on the rest of you guys for not calling him out on it.
Calling him out for what? He never mentioned death or destruction - you did. The track was much more uncertain yesterday. It's still not set in stone, but it's looking like it's not going to affect the CONUS directly. When you live in in a hurricane prone area, there's a buildup of anticipation and concern when it looks like it might affect where you live. We're just seeing a natural sigh of relief that it's not going to happen, not some frustrated death wish. I wish people would give this kind of talk a rest.
1520. FOREX
Quoting 1511. bryanfromkyleTX:



HUH???
everyone is putting him on ignore. I advise that.
1521. josF
Thanks for the update,Steve. 'Mr Gregory'. :)
Quoting 1503. SFLWeatherman:




Look at the trough dig southwest down the coast. I see another shift east. Bermuda will need to be wary.
Quoting 1501. pmzqqzmp:



See this is exactly what I find wrong with this blog. You have a developing storm, if it's TRULY you are interested in following storms, why does it matter where it is going ? You should still be interested because it's a tropical system, and interesting to follow.

The implication you give is that you are only interested if it is going to cause death and destruction. And shame on the rest of you guys for not calling him out on it.


Your theory may have minor merit in a very general sense...but in regards to specifics; it is way over the top and somewhat silly...for lack of a better word.

First off, it is fundamentally flawed since no "wishes or wants" can change storm trajectory or intensity. Secondly, of course it is human nature to be more interested/concerned with a storm impacting land...and more specifically anyone as an individual. Third, you are personally fabricating the idea that anyone said "I want death and destruction". Fourth, whether it is a snow storm, an afternoon thunderstorm, a tornado outbreak, a tropical system, or the leaves changing color...The power and ability of our atmosphere is fascinating; the good and the bad. Finally, just because there is some level of adrenaline attached to experiencing a land-falling tropical system over your head, clouds racing by, pressure dropping, etc; again it does not mean that anyone "wants" your house to have a 60 foot southern pine put through it.

This is the reality of it. So to pretend that anyone who can find some of the "good" things that come out of a land-falling tropical system; whether it is standing in awe of mother nature or understanding that they can help rebuild and reinvigorate communities as well as provide ecological benefits, is like I said...silly.
Quoting 1516. pmzqqzmp:

If I sound harsh, it's because this is not a good day for me. It's an anniversary I'd rather not remember, but can never get away from, because it completely changed my life.

We all know what today is, and I can tell you I barely escaped with my life, trapped in a house, that lost it's north wall, and the whole roof, and every door and window blown out. I had lost my wife the year before to cancer, and then all of my memories of her & our life together were destroyed by that monster.

When you guys go on "wishcasting" remember there are people like myself that do monitor this blog to gleen real info about what might be happening to our lives and property.

THIS IS REAL TO US, not fun & games and not a "hobby".


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

Not trying to come off insensitive, I sat through Hurricane Katrina and watched trees hit my house-it sucked, but if you're trying to get the best, go to that website.^^^^
1525. sar2401
Quoting pmzqqzmp:
If I sound harsh, it's because this is not a good day for me. It's an anniversary I'd rather not remember, but can never get away from, because it completely changed my life.

We all know what today is, and I can tell you I barely escaped with my life, trapped in a house, that lost it's north wall, and the whole roof, and every door and window blown out. I had lost my wife the year before to cancer, and then all of my memories of her & our life together were destroyed by that monster.

When you guys go on "wishcasting" remember there are people like myself that do monitor this blog to gleen real info about what might be happening to our lives and property.

THIS IS REAL TO US, not fun & games and not a "hobby".
I'm sorry for your loss. My wife died of cancer in 2004 as well so I know something of what you're going through. This is probably not a good day to vent your frustrations with life on people who really mean you no harm. I hope you find peace about all this.
Quoting 1514. sebastianflorida:

I don't think he/she stated anything about his opinion on if it's good or bad that the storm will not becoming close to the U.S., or that he/she is not going to track it. For all we know the person is thrilled it is not coming to the U.S. Everyone has their own agenda why they come to this blog; some want death and destruction, some like learning about weather or storms, some are scared and want to make sure where it is going etc. Chill Please!


Please see my followup post, it might explain a lot.
1527. FOREX
Quoting 1522. ILwthrfan:



Look at the trough dig southwest down the coast. I see another shift east. Bermuda will need to be wary.
Trough almost there now. I would expect Cristobal to start being moved tomorrow.
1528. RickWPB
Quoting pmzqqzmp:


See this is exactly what I find wrong with this blog. You have a developing storm, if it's TRULY you are interested in following storms, why does it matter where it is going ? You should still be interested because it's a tropical system, and interesting to follow.

The implication you give is that you are only interested if it is going to cause death and destruction. And shame on the rest of you guys for not calling him out on it.


Poof! Congrats. You're number 110 on my ignore list.
"Mighty Marie."

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014

...MIGHTY MARIE ON ITS WAY OUT TO SEA AS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 111.4W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM S OF SOCORRO ISLAND
ABOUT 485 MI...785 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.44 INCHES

Hurricane MARIE is now up to 150 mph now forcast too be 160 mph then slow weaking


so march for the ones that where saying this was going too be a cat 5 next updated when the NHC all ready had here set at 130kt for best track you guys need too learn too look at the best track and not this say its going too be a cat 5 at next updated
1531. FOREX
Quoting 1515. LostTomorrows:

Cristobal is still taking some noticeable jogs to the west, I'm still not 100% convinced he's going out to sea. Even still, out to sea would imply he's not affecting any land, but since before he finally got his name, he's been quite the rainmaker. He's been sitting over the same islands with his deepest convection inundating them for a while now.
The trough is almost on top of him. Expect these westward jogs to stop tomorrow, if not late tonight.
1532. hydrus
Quoting 1517. Ameister12:

It doesn't get much better than this.


Man that was quick.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 16.0N 111.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 16.5N 112.9W 140 KT 160 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 17.6N 114.5W 135 KT 155 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 18.9N 116.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 20.3N 117.9W 115 KT 135 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 22.5N 122.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 25.5N 127.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 28.5N 131.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Berg
Looking more like the only hurricane threats to the US coastline will come from the Gulf or Caribbean, unless weather patterns change of course.
1535. scott39
The tracking of a TC is fun on here, but if you took out the nuttiness from this blog(including this nut) it would be oh so boring!! 
1536. sar2401
Quoting Closedeyes:
Any chance we get something to spin up in gulf at tail end of the front ? I think there was a earlier model that showed this as a possibility.
The prediction is for a low to form in mid-Gulf on Wednesday -



The trough starts to move toward the Texas coast as it feels the front to the north -



By Saturday, it's gone -




Lows often form of the tail ends of these fronts but most of them don't turn into anything and head off to Texas or Mexico to die.
1537. dmh1026
Anyone remember this? Homestead, FL struck by Andrew 8/24/92...
Hurricane Andrew
Wow... I thought we'd have a new blog by now....
1539. will40
interesting 11:00 discussion from NHC
1540. Patrap
Has anyone else applied for the second writer of Dr. Masters entries as the ad is still up in the wu Jobs section?
1541. Jaxpan
Has anyone been watching what is developing in the central MDR? I see an invest soon....
Quoting 1534. unknowncomic:

Looking more like the only hurricane threats to the US coastline will come from the Gulf or Caribbean, unless weather patterns change of course.
1542. hydrus
Quoting 1536. sar2401:

The prediction is for a low to form in mid-Gulf on Wednesday -



The trough starts to move toward the Texas coast as it feels the front to the north -



By Saturday, it's gone -




Lows often form of the tail ends of these fronts but most of them don't turn into anything and head off to Texas or Mexico to die.
The 6 day actually looks like a normal chart for this time of year.
Lordy, lordy so much can happen with this track. That slow northward movement forecasted in itself is rife with uncertainty. One thing for certain, the surfers OBX to FL are in for a treat this week.

Quoting 1501. pmzqqzmp:



See this is exactly what I find wrong with this blog. You have a developing storm, if it's TRULY you are interested in following storms, why does it matter where it is going ? You should still be interested because it's a tropical system, and interesting to follow.

The implication you give is that you are only interested if it is going to cause death and destruction. And shame on the rest of you guys for not calling him out on it.
Quoting 1493. Climate175:

Where are you trough deniars now?

I don't think anyone was denying the trof was there, I think we can all agree there. It was whether it would be enough to push Cristobal out to sea. Today there is finally a consensus in the models which was not the case the last few days. Many bloggers had diverse viewpoints on what could happen and that was great to read and fascinating. A handful thought they had a crystal ball and were not as respectful to those to different views based on evidence they saw looking at some data.
Look, just last weekend some were saying nothing at all the rest of the month how did that turn out? Some still look at the long range models as gospel 16 days out and make claims based on that, I hope those who thought nothing could happen remember it does not take 16 days for tropical development it can happen within a few days. It is about learning and growing your knowledge, that can last a lifetime as opposed to being right. Anyone can be right at a certain time, but knowledge and experience carries with you throughout life something to think about.
People keep saying that the US east coast is suddenly immune to Hurricane impacts...

Did you forget that we are only 2 years removed from Hurricane Sandy? In case you forgot, she was the second most damaging storm in US history.

Even before that we had Irene, a top 15 storm in terms of damage.

Hell, we're only 2 months removed from a Cat. 2 landfall in Arthur.

Point is, not every damn season is going to be 2004-2005 on repeat, seasons like those have only EVER happened one or twice in recorded tropical history, they are INSANELY rare. Massive East Coast storms are even rarer. And we have seen several in the near past.

Calm it down.
1546. sar2401
Quoting josF:
Thanks for the update,Steve. 'Mr Gregory'. :)
The updates do seem a bit...slow.
According to Levi, maybe couple more systems off Africa and that's pretty much it. might have to start looking forward toward the 2015 season
1548. Patrap

FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.


Tropical Storm CRISTOBAL Public Advisory

Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive

000
WTNT34 KNHC 241449
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

...CRISTOBAL MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
...HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND PORTIONS
OF THE BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.6N 73.1W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM E OF LONG ISLAND
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM E OF GREAT EXUMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED
ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR
THIS AREA LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST.
CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF CRISTOBAL WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS THROUGH MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AS WELL AS THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS AROUND 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE WARNING AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Quoting 1504. Envoirment:

Cristobal:



Firing off plenty of good convection. Would be nice to see it become a hurricane as it goes out to sea (and hopefully not hitting Bermuda).
Looks like they are finally getting some rain in Mayaguana....
Quoting 1453. washingtonian115:

Looks like Cristobal will not be a threat to the U.S.Another storm steered out to sea.Bye Cristobal tell Arthur and Bertha we said hello.Looks like Cristobal will follow paths similar to the other two systems.Getting close to the U.S and then steered out to sea.
Arthur did make landfall in North Carolina so its not a fish.
1551. Patrap
Quoting 1545. RyanSperrey:

People keep saying that the US east coast is suddenly immune to Hurricane impacts...

Did you forget that we are only 2 years removed from Hurricane Sandy? In case you forgot, she was the second most damaging storm in US history.

Even before that we had Irene, a top 15 storm in terms of damage.

Hell, we're only 2 months removed from a Cat. 2 landfall in Arthur.

Point is, not every damn season is going to be 2004-2005 on repeat, seasons like those have only EVER happened one or twice in recorded tropical history, they are INSANELY rare. Massive East Coast storms are even rarer. And we have seen several in the near past.

Calm it down.


Isaac in 2012 was no slouch as it flooded 20K in Se Louisiana.
1552. sar2401
Quoting RyanSperrey:
People keep saying that the US east coast is suddenly immune to Hurricane impacts...

Did you forget that we are only 2 years removed from Hurricane Sandy? In case you forgot, she was the second most damaging storm in US history.

Even before that we had Irene, a top 15 storm in terms of damage.

Hell, we're only 2 months removed from a Cat. 2 landfall in Arthur.

Point is, not every damn season is going to be 2004-2005 on repeat, seasons like those have only EVER happened one or twice in recorded tropical history, they are INSANELY rare. Massive East Coast storms are even rarer. And we have seen several in the near past.

Calm it down.
You've got to lay off the coffee. :-) I didn't see anyone say the East Coast was safe from hurricanes.

It's a tough day on the blog.
winds still 45 mph!!
Anyone have a 500mb and 925 mb vorticity map? Cristobal may be decoupled.

1555. Patrap
Any San Fran Earthquake reports come in here?
Quoting 1549. BahaHurican:

Looks like they are finally getting some rain in Mayaguana....


Which island are you on Baha? Hope Cristobal won't affect you much!
Quoting 1545. RyanSperrey:

People keep saying that the US east coast is suddenly immune to Hurricane impacts...

Did you forget that we are only 2 years removed from Hurricane Sandy? In case you forgot, she was the second most damaging storm in US history.

Even before that we had Irene, a top 15 storm in terms of damage.

Hell, we're only 2 months removed from a Cat. 2 landfall in Arthur.

Point is, not every damn season is going to be 2004-2005 on repeat, seasons like those have only EVER happened one or twice in recorded tropical history, they are INSANELY rare. Massive East Coast storms are even rarer. And we have seen several in the near past.

Calm it down.
What happen is that many do not take them as that important because they weren't majors at landfall, like you said many storms have been making landfall in the NE ex Irene, Sandy. Which landfall in the NE are rarer than the ones in the gulf.
1558. sar2401
Quoting hydrus:
The 6 day actually looks like a normal chart for this time of year.
The cold front makes a deeper penetration into the South than we normally see in late August. I'd say it was just an early indication of Fall if we hadn't already seen these kinds of fronts all summer.
1559. Patrap
Vape Loop

Quoting 1547. wunderweatherman123:

According to Levi, maybe couple more systems off Africa and that's pretty much it. might have to start looking forward toward the 2015 season
I believe we might get one or two storms in October.
1561. txjac
Quoting 1555. Patrap:

Any San Fran Earthquake reports come in here?


I havent seen any on here ...terrible news
1562. Patrap
Are there any fronts that would keep gulf storms away? Although it doesn't really get cold.....I start expecting cold fronts in September which is what keeps potential treats out of the Gulf.
1564. silas
Flawless

1565. SLU
Mighty Marie

Quoting RickWPB:


Poof! Congrats. You're number 110 on my ignore list.


I actually agree with him. A storm isn't less interesting because it's going out to sea. I really don't think everyone on here wants a storm to cause death and destruction (who would?), but I find hurricanes interesting no matter where they go.
Quoting 1515. LostTomorrows:

Cristobal is still taking some noticeable jogs to the west, I'm still not 100% convinced he's going out to sea. Even still, out to sea would imply he's not affecting any land, but since before he finally got his name, he's been quite the rainmaker. He's been sitting over the same islands with his deepest convection inundating them for a while now.
Nothing wrong with being SURE it's gone.... lol ... I'm riding with the OTS crew for now... and would not be pleased to see it may a Wward move any time in the next 48.

Quoting 1516. pmzqqzmp:

If I sound harsh, it's because this is not a good day for me. It's an anniversary I'd rather not remember, but can never get away from, because it completely changed my life.

We all know what today is, and I can tell you I barely escaped with my life, trapped in a house, that lost it's north wall, and the whole roof, and every door and window blown out. I had lost my wife the year before to cancer, and then all of my memories of her & our life together were destroyed by that monster.

When you guys go on "wishcasting" remember there are people like myself that do monitor this blog to gleen real info about what might be happening to our lives and property.

THIS IS REAL TO US, not fun & games and not a "hobby".
I feel you... and can empathise in a way perhaps others may not be able to, because I went through Andrew myself. It was no joke, no game at all...
At the same time, some of the "enthusiasts" here are going on to make a career of meteorology, and I am confident they will change the wx forecasting field for the better through their contributions. For some of them I suppose it starts off as "fun and games", as a mere "hobby", but as they mature they begin to make worthwhile contributions. I am thinking in particular as an example of Levi, who began blogging here while living as far away from a hurricane zone as one can get. This week his hurricane "hobby" helped thousands of internet users get better information about Cristobal's potential.

It can't bring back what was lost to Andrew, Floyd, Ivan, Katrina and Ike, but it does make what happens here seem a little more purposeful and a little less ... disrespectful ...

Quoting 1563. lurkersince2008:

Are there any fronts that would keep gulf storms away? Although it doesn't really get cold.....I start expecting cold fronts in September which is what keeps potential treats out of the Gulf.


Actually the tail end of troughs that get into the Gulf are notorious for being capable of instigating the development of cyclones. You need to have several troughs clear through before you get those waters down below threshold.
Quoting 1520. FOREX:

everyone is putting him on ignore. I advise that.
Almost . Be careful about speaking for everyone if you have not spoken TO everyone....
1570. ncstorm
Quoting 1539. will40:

interesting 11:00 discussion from NHC


So if I'm understanding the NHC discussion..the people who are the experts are going with the the ECMWF-UKMET-NAVGEM solutions as this will take the storm Northwestward for the next 72 hours or so and the trough will then move it to the NE but as the trough is lifting it out the ridge will be building back in and Christobal will have to wait on the 2nd trough before getting pulled out again which doesnt happen for another 4-5 days..

a lot of players in that discussion..
@SWFLgazer #1463...I don't comment much no more here as I agree with your comment...
"Isn't it sad when people wish death and destruction on others for their own amusement?"
1572. gator23
It seems many on this blog are very certain about what Cristobol will do when the NHC themselves are not sure. In this mornings discussion they said that they are 1)Unsure of it's motion direction, 2)now tracking a decoupled system and that 3) their is "significant differences" in their models in other words no consensus.
1573. will40
Quoting ncstorm:


So if I'm understanding the NHC discussion..the people who are the experts are going with the the ECMWF-UKMET-NAVGEM solutions as this will take the storm Northwestward for the next 72 hours or so and the trough will then move it to the NE but as the trough is lifting it out the ridge will be building back in and Christobal will have to wait on the 2nd trough before getting pulled out again which doesnt happen for another 4-5 days..

a lot of players in that discussion..


yes that is what i got out of it also they saying it misses the first weakness
Amazing. On first glance, you'd think this was in the western Pacific. Could get an ISS pass in a few orbits, keep a close eye to the ISS HDEV stream!

1575. ncstorm
Quoting 1572. gator23:

It seems many on this blog are very certain about what Cristobol will do when the NHC themselves are not sure. In this mornings discussion they said that they are 1)Unsure of it's motion direction, 2)now tracking a decoupled system and that 3) their is "significant differences" in their models in other words no consensus.


so many high fives this morning..
Quoting 1550. allancalderini:

Arthur did make landfall in North Carolina so its not a fish.
I never claimed Arthur was a fish.It hit N.C and then quickly darted off the U.S coast.It was the closets of the two.The over all pattern has been for a storm to get as close as possible to the U.S and then dart off to sea.
Quoting 1532. hydrus:

Man that was quick.


Beautiful stadium effect.
Quoting 1378. Sfloridacat5:

When was last time we had a CAT5 in the Atlantic Basin? Wilma


Felix e_e
Thanks Sar
Quoting 1575. ncstorm:



so many high fives this morning..


And a bit of a shaker here in the wine country last night.
But we have named storm.
I do see further north and east of the NHC center, something spinning out

Quoting 1554. ILwthrfan:

Anyone have a 500mb and 925 mb vorticity map? Cristobal may be decoupled.


Quoting 1576. washingtonian115:

I never claimed Arthur was a fish.It hit N.C and then quickly darted off the U.S coast.It was the closets of the two.The over all pattern has been for a storm to get as close as possible to the U.S and then dart off to sea.


So are you saying Arthur wasn't a fish, but it was fishy?
Quoting pmzqqzmp:


See this is exactly what I find wrong with this blog. You have a developing storm, if it's TRULY you are interested in following storms, why does it matter where it is going ? You should still be interested because it's a tropical system, and interesting to follow.

The implication you give is that you are only interested if it is going to cause death and destruction. And shame on the rest of you guys for not calling him out on it.


I try to make it a point not to tell people in the blog how to think or what they should or shouldn't be saying.

Enjoy the blog in whatever way you choose. If you don't like the comments from a certain member put them on your ignore list.

Hi Storm, I grew up in the Florida Keys and South Florida and to see what we have done to our only living reef in North America is disgusting, and that's only a small part of it. I'm sure there are many other area's of the U.S. coast line these storm help. The storms that affect this area of Florida helps remove all the silt and pollution that accumulate on the ocean floor. This is only one of the benefits these storm produce and as I said before this is part of the natural cycle of nature, nothing you or I can do about it. At least I have a few days to prepare for the storm unlike tornadoes, fires, or earthquakes. I don't wish death and destruction on anyone but hurricanes affecting S. Florida are a normal occurrence and hopefully will always be. If you live here deal with them, they only serve to help us in the long run.
Quoting 1528. RickWPB:



Poof! Congrats. You're number 110 on my ignore list.
Totally sensitive here....

Quoting 1556. Envoirment:



Which island are you on Baha? Hope Cristobal won't affect you much!
New Providence, where the capital city, Nassau, is located.
We'll likely get some swells, and if the field expands to the west, maybe some gusty wx on Monday and Tuesday.
At least that's what I hope happens.... lol....
Quoting 1561. txjac:



I havent seen any on here ...terrible news
Worse than we heard around 6-7 a.m. ? They were saying relatively low damage at the time... but it was still dark there...

Good morning. The NHC forecasters are the best in this business with lots of PHds and access to the best computing models developed and refined over time. The point is that they did a great job with Bertha and I am certain that the current forecast will verify. The result is the the US gets another break from a storm and the Bahamas are taking the brunt for this one. No one wants to actually go through a strong hurricane. Also noting per a post last night that this one allowed PR to top their reservoirs after a prolonged drought period so there have been real benefits as well from this one
Yes, nc, so many what ifs and so much is changing day-to-day. Great forecast given the dynamics but certainly subject to change. I will be watching closely. I'm sure you will as well.

Hey at least it's not a heat index of 120F today. Woohoo! Had a bike ride yesterday and cut it short. By 9AM I figured out that the only thing yesterday was good for was heat stroke.

Anytime a storm can sit and spend any time without a clear direction allows for increased uncertainty. Cristobal could loop, retrograde southwestward, not move anywhere...the list goes on and on.

I guess I'm old enough now to understand that some things just defy explanation and you just have to wait and see what happens. When the Red Sox won the world series in 2004, I knew almost anything in the universe was possible...lol.

Quoting 1570. ncstorm:



So if I'm understanding the NHC discussion..the people who are the experts are going with the the ECMWF-UKMET-NAVGEM solutions as this will take the storm Northwestward for the next 72 hours or so and the trough will then move it to the NE but as the trough is lifting it out the ridge will be building back in and Christobal will have to wait on the 2nd trough before getting pulled out again which doesnt happen for another 4-5 days..

a lot of players in that discussion..
Quoting 1570. ncstorm:



So if I'm understanding the NHC discussion..the people who are the experts are going with the the ECMWF-UKMET-NAVGEM solutions as this will take the storm Northwestward for the next 72 hours or so and the trough will then move it to the NE but as the trough is lifting it out the ridge will be building back in and Christobal will have to wait on the 2nd trough before getting pulled out again which doesnt happen for another 4-5 days..

a lot of players in that discussion..

A lot can happen in 4-5 Days as we have observed already.
1590. SLU
This is what we live for.

Quoting 1587. weathermanwannabe:

Good morning. The NHC forecasters are the best in this business with lots of PHds and access to the best computing models developed and refined over time. The point is that they did a great job with Bertha and I am certain that the current forecast will verify. The result is the the US gets another break from a storm and the Bahamas are taking the brunt for this one. No one wants to actually go through a strong hurricane. Also noting per a post last night that this one allowed PR to top their reservoirs after a prolonged drought period so there have been real benefits as well from this one

Hey WW I agree although sitting around 4-5 days in the Bahamas I can see many things happening.
Quoting Closedeyes:
Any chance we get something to spin up in gulf at tail end of the front ? I think there was a earlier model that showed this as a possibility.


I've been seeing that too. Apparently it's this the models are picking up on.

WINDS AND SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MEET THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF
20-25 KT AND 8 FT FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE N
CENTRAL GULF WILL SHIFT W THROUGH MON NIGHT. TROUGHING EXTENDING
FROM WHAT IS NOW T.D. FOUR OVER THE SW N ATLC WILL BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF MON AND LEAVE A WEAK TROUGH THAT WILL STRETCH FROM
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TUE THROUGH THU
MORNING. AS EXPLAINED IN THE ATLC SECTION BELOW...THE ECMWF IS
THE PREFERRED SOLUTION WITH T.D. FOUR. THE ECMWF WILL BE USED TO
ADJUST THE GRIDS.
Quoting 1554. ILwthrfan:

Anyone have a 500mb and 925 mb vorticity map? Cristobal may be decoupled.




Certainly looks possible. Visible seems to show a llc moving off to the N around 24N; while microwave seems to suggest something left behind around 22N.

1594. beell

08/24 06Z GFS 500 mb rh-valid 12Z, Tuesday

Death by dry

Quoting 1586. BahaHurican:

Totally sensitive here....

New Providence, where the capital city, Nassau, is located.
We'll likely get some swells, and if the field expands to the west, maybe some gusty wx on Monday and Tuesday.
At least that's what I hope happens.... lol....
Worse than we heard around 6-7 a.m. ? They were saying relatively low damage at the time... but it was still dark there...




I'm in Valley of The Moon, one valley over from Napa Valley.
It was a pretty good jolt, but no damage here (I'm on 20 acres, so don't know how the neighbors are).
About 30 miles from the epicenter.
Quoting 1388. Hurricane1216:

Hurricane Marie put on quite a show of intensification last night with an eye quickly developing and eye temperatures reaching +14.5C on the last check. Clouds nearing -80C around the eyewall. This is a very powerful system, and for me it's the most impressive storm that I've seen in the NHC basins in a long time.




Well, yesterday i told that after she forms an eye, she'll strengthening faster...and well...yesterday when i moves out, she has 90 mph....today when i woke up i see to her and i see "150 mph, 929 mbar" This is lowest pressure since Dora (155 mph 929 mbar July 2011) and of course, this is the most beautiful system in this area since Rick 2009.
Quoting 1585. NativeSun:

Hi Storm, I grew up in the Florida Keys and South Florida and to see what we have done to our only living reef in North America is disgusting, and that's only a small part of it. I'm sure there are many other area's of the U.S. coast line these storm help. The storms that affect this area of Florida helps remove all the silt and pollution that accumulate on the ocean floor. This is only one of the benefits these storm produce and as I said before this is part of the natural cycle of nature, nothing you or I can do about it. At least I have a few days to prepare for the storm unlike tornadoes, fires, or earthquakes. I don't wish death and destruction on anyone but hurricanes affecting S. Florida are a normal occurrence and hopefully will always be. If you live here deal with them, they only serve to help us in the long run.
This is very true. So far we've had the best of all worlds from Cristobal... I hope that continues. However, as has been said often in the last 7 days, sooner or later another "big one" is gonna strike SOMEwhere. It behooves us to be ready to cope with it. We also benefit from what happens in this blog because we become more informed about the impacts - positive AND negative - of these wx systems. I say give thanks for and appreciate the good and prepare to cope with the bad to the best of your ability. There really isn't much more that one can do, anyway...
Hmm.. SOI looks like it'll enter a prolonged negative phase and subsurface anomalies are beginning to gather again. Could get a weak El Nino event in the winter?

If we have 4 days to evac SFL we could do okay.. So long as everyone is maintaining a full tank of fuel.. 3 days or less is going to be tragic, 2 days horrific. Katrina was bad but thank God every season that SFL is spared a major.. jmho
Quoting 1590. SLU:

This is what we live for.


Lol ... agreed ... OTOH... I am SO very glad that is not spinning just N of Mayaguana right now.... LOL ....
1602. sar2401
Quoting txjac:


I havent seen any on here ...terrible news
I was posting earlier. This is about 20 miles from where I used to live. From the people I've talked to, it appears that most of the structural damage is in downtown Napa, which has a lot of unreinforced masonry buildings. Lots of broken windows, downed chimneys, and things out of shelves and drawers. There have been some injuries but no reported fatalities. I'm sure there will be more structural damage reported as the day goes on but it sounds like this is about what you'd expect from a 6.0 earthquake in California.
1603. ncstorm
Quoting 1588. HaoleboySurfEC:

Yes, nc, so many what ifs and so much is changing day-to-day. Great forecast given the dynamics but certainly subject to change. I will be watching closely. I'm sure you will as well.

Hey at least it's not a heat index of 120F today. Woohoo! Had a bike ride yesterday and cut it short. By 9AM I figured out that the only thing yesterday was good for was heat stroke.

Anytime a storm can sit and spend any time without a clear direction allows for increased uncertainty. Cristobal could loop, retrograde southwestward, not move anywhere...the list goes on and on.

I guess I'm old enough now to understand that some things just defy explanation and you just have to wait and see what happens. When the Red Sox won the world series in 2004, I knew almost anything in the universe was possible...lol.




It's a beautiful morning here..no humidity..I walked three miles :)

and yes I'm still watching Christobal due to the discussion written up by the NHC..
Quoting 1595. cytochromeC:



I'm in Valley of The Moon, one valley over from Napa Valley.
It was a pretty good jolt, but no damage here (I'm on 20 acres, so don't know how the neighbors are).
About 30 miles from the epicenter.
Glad you are okay. All the imagery I have seen implies extensive small scale damage e.g. all the wine is gone! but nothing too major i.e. the infrastructure hasn't suffered too badly ...
1605. JRRP
Dominican Republic




People are still in Denial about Captain Trough Save the U.S.
This morning's M6.1 California quake--now officially the "South Napa Earthquake"--was the strongest to strike the Bay Area since 1989's Loma Prieta aka ("World Series") quake. Dozens of injuries have been reported, some critical. Among numerous fires that broke out in the town of Napa in the quake's aftermath, two were major, one of those destroying ten units in a mobile home park. Thousands are without power. Dozens of buildings were heavily damaged. Some roadways have buckled, and some major highway interchanges have been affected. The USGS summary:

"The earthquake lies within a 70-km-wide (44 miles) set of major faults of the San Andreas Fault system that forms the boundary between the Pacific and North American tectonic plates. The persistent northwestward movement of the Pacific plate relative to North America primarily causes right-lateral slip across the major faults, but also causes deformation between the major faults. The ongoing complex deformation field is revealed by modern geodetic surveys and earthquake patterns as well as the regional geologic structure. The earthquake is located at the eastern shore of San Pablo Bay between two major active fault systems: the Hayward-Rodgers Creek Fault system on the west and the Concord-Green Valley Fault system on the east. The earthquake occurred near the well-known West Napa Fault, and the less well known Carneros-Franklin Faults, which juxtapose different suites of rocks. Although there are several faults in the region of the earthquake, only the West Napa Fault is known to have displaced Holocene-age sediment — which is positive evidence of surface fault rupture in the last 11,000 years."
Marie needs to stop moving due West if she's going to bring us any rain. :(
IL...Oddly, it looks like that is exactly what is happening to my untrained eye. It would explain a lot of the confusion the models have shown the past couple days.
Quoting 1605. JRRP:

Dominican Republic





Thought you guys might get some flooding.... there was a big "red" cloud camped over the southern part of RD / DR since Friday night .... :o/
Hopefully no deaths??
12Z GFS at 27 hours

Quoting 1609. StormJunkie:

IL...Oddly, it looks like that is exactly what is happening to my untrained eye. It would explain a lot of the confusion the models have shown the past couple days.
It's been spitting out centres for a little while now.... this is always an interesting situation.... suppose both the ejected centre and the remaining centre become hurricanes??? [just a little DOOM like thinking.... lol]
Quoting 1606. washingtonian115:

People are still in Denial about Captain Trough Save the U.S.


I don't think anyone is in denial. Heck, I've been supporting the trough clearing it out ever since the llc moved to just S of the Turks and Caicos. At the same time...A llc does appear to be moving north rather quickly; and Microwave does support something hanging behind in the Bahamas. Top that off with the NHC mentioning that possibility...and I'm not sure what to think.
1614. Patrap
1615. SLU
Quoting 1598. CybrTeddy:

Hmm.. SOI looks like it'll enter a prolonged negative phase and subsurface anomalies are beginning to gather again. Could get a weak El Nino event in the winter?




I don't mind as long as it reverts to neutral or La Nina by JJA 2015.
Recon plane took off not too long ago:



1617. JRRP
Quoting BahaHurican:
Thought you guys might get some flooding.... there was a big "red" cloud camped over the southern part of RD / DR since Friday night .... :o/
Hopefully no deaths??

only 1
and 4000 evacuated by rains
Really like this site .... WU !

Although I have been through many decades of destructive hurricanes along the Central Gulf Coast, all of them still amaze me! Would never wish-cast the D&D and doom ... on anyone .... from what I have witnessed along the Coast, but that is Mother Nature! Have survived the worst, from past hurricanes, but they still always amaze me!

Sometimes people who have never experienced a major hurricane, hope or want to be in the eyewall of the next BIG one. That is understandable! The way the media hypes up the urgency of a possible hurricane threat, only to have the situation change or forecast models change, can understandably be .. a big let down to the storm-chasing community. People who have been in the middle of a big one, for example, Andrew or Camille, and have suffered great losses, might say .... never again!

Have followed this site for years, but until recently have commented. Appreciate the shared thoughts ... It is fun to see everyone's else's comments, on a brewing storm. Hope that readers do not get their feelings hurt, by those who want to follow the next big storm that is churning, or making landfall, for that matter!

I'm a small fish in this BIG pond of WU, and my curiosity for what makes a hurricane "tick," totally over-rides all the bad experiences I have endured. It makes me want to know MORE!
12Z GFS at 57 hours
Quoting 1606. washingtonian115:

People are still in Denial about Captain Trough Save the U.S.
When he is not coming in from the west he comes in from the northeast.

So Washi, what are your thoughts on this upcoming winter for us?
1621. beell
1622. SLU
Quoting 1600. BahaHurican:

Lol ... agreed ... OTOH... I am SO very glad that is not spinning just N of Mayaguana right now.... LOL ....


A breath of fresh air when they're in no man's land.
Novice here but appears western shear is coming from the previous anticyclone to the southwest?
Is that the trough to north of Cristobal? Also if it has decoupled, could it be forming a new center again to the south?
So much hope with what is now Cristobal and now we are looking at what Jeff expected from the beginning, Bertha's twin brother Cristobal. The similarities are striking and if Cristobal ever reaches hurricane strength I wonder if it too will mirror what Bertha looked like as a hurricane. Maybe some huge surprise is still in store, but it's really starting to looking like this one is swimming with the fishes.
I am at over seven inches of measured rain (and I know I missed some)... and it's still raining here on Provo.
Quoting 1615. SLU:



I don't mind as long as it reverts to neutral or La Nina by JJA 2015.



i do mind in fact we need EL nino too last has long has it can we need a good wet too vary wet winter her in CA or it is not looking so nic come next spring and summer
Captain Trough - is that an offical NHC term?
1629. sar2401
Quoting BahaHurican:
It's been spitting out centres for a little while now.... this is always an interesting situation.... suppose both the ejected centre and the remaining centre become hurricanes??? [just a little DOOM like thinking.... lol]
LOL. Very strange set up though. It looks like the GFS is starting to show a more vigorous center further north with the remnants of the storm further south. Christobal is in such terrible shape now that it could happen. I think whatever Christobal becomes still ends up OTS but there will be some twists and turns over the couple of days. Should get the OTS camp vs the "It's coming here" camp reinvigorated. :-)
1630. SLU
Quoting 1617. JRRP:


only 1
and 4000 evacuated by rains


That's one too many
Quoting 1624. hurricanewatcher61:

Is that the trough to north of Cristobal? Also if it has decoupled, could it be forming a new center again to the south?
Sure does look in the visible sat loop like the LLC is running quickly Nward away from the convection .... impacts undeclared...
Quoting 1630. SLU:



That's one too many
Agreed... was hoping we would get through without losing anybody... :o/
1633. sar2401
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
I am at over seven inches of measured rain (and I know I missed some)... and it's still raining here on Provo.
At least those cisterns are getting filled up. I'd sure like to see a little rain in Alabama. Already 93 with a heat index of 107 here.
Quoting 1620. Tornado6042008X:

When he is not coming in from the west he comes in from the northeast.

So Washi, what are your thoughts on this upcoming winter for us?
I do think it could potentially be another cold and snowy one.The pattern that has been stuck in place since last summer has not changed.The sst profile in the pacific hasn't changed either and with a potential weak el nino like Teddy said things could be interesting.It could be snow or just really cold rain if temperatures don't cooperate.
Quoting 1626. CaicosRetiredSailor:

I am at over seven inches of measured rain (and I know I missed some)... and it's still raining here on Provo.
Yikes.... need to call my family in Mayaguana... kinda hard to think they went to church if it's raining that hard...
Hey guys....the temperatures here in South Brazil are crazy!!!! The minumun temperature in the city of Santa Maria was 26,5ºC!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Right now...12:56 PM we already have temperatures in some cities reaching 100ºF...This is the hottest day since the Heat Dome in February 2014 when we had 110ºF.
Quoting 1628. Sfloridacat5:

Captain Trough - is that an offical NHC term?
No.It's my term.The reason why I call it Captain trough is because it's almost as if it's perfect timing.When a hurricane or T.S threatens it comes down to save the day.Besides Irene and Sandy Captain Trough Save the U.S has been looking out for us.Earl and Igor could have been major trouble if Captain trough didn't swoop down.Earl was a brush with N.C.But as stated it could have been worse..
12Z at 90 hours
Quoting 1555. Patrap:

Any San Fran Earthquake reports come in here?

Didn't feel a thing here in Truckee, but friends from "down the hill" received a decent shake and a broken water pipe.
Quoting 1631. BahaHurican:

Sure does look in the visible sat loop like the LLC is running quickly Nward away from the convection .... impacts undeclared...


It's a well defined and fairly large circulation. Hard to imagine anything could spin up at the low levels unless it completely removes itself from the area quickly. Interesting none the less.
Don't know if anyone commented about the CA earthquake.
Magnitude 6.1 at 3:20 a.m. pdt
Here is The Aftershock Warning.
Near Napa, CA. Damages and fires reported. So far reports include a few serious injuries and dozens of less serious injuries. Power is out in Sonoma County.

Add: Oh, I see Neo did. I have put a couple links about the quake in my wu blog, including a link to the USGS report Neo quotes.
Quoting 1640. StormJunkie:



It's a well defined and fairly large circulation. Hard to imagine anything could spin up at the low levels unless it completely removes itself from the area quickly. Interesting none the less.
Just looking at the loops again, and if Cristobal had a proper CDO covering its entire circulation, we'd be under the CDO nearly 300 miles away from the centre.... clouds are moving S / SW here, in contrast to our normal easterly / westerly flow...
A Few Clouds

97F

36C

Humidity45%
Wind SpeedN 5 mph
Barometer29.87 in (1011.1 mb)
Dewpoint72F (22C)
Visibility10.00 mi
Heat Index106F (41C)

Last Update on 24 Aug 11:53 am EDT

Current conditions at

Tallahassee Regional Airport (KTLH)

Lat: 30.4N Lon: 84.35W Elev: 69ft.

More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather

This heat is showing no mercy, it was 99 Thursday, 100 Friday, 101 yesterday, and today looks like another run at 100 degrees.
Quoting 1642. sunlinepr:


WNW? I clearly see it moving just south of due west. Am I missing something here?
Could we finally see our first Category 5 of the EPAC season?
Amanda reached 155 mph, Cristina reached 150 mph, which is so close to the Category 5 threshold.
Let's see what Recon finds when it gets to 04L. The difference between the circulation being at 22N and 24N could have major track implications.
double post
Quoting 1628. Sfloridacat5:

Captain Trough - is that an offical NHC term?
i have another name for it but i'll keep it to myself. 2009-2014 "captain trough" has saved the U.S. too many times to count
Quoting 1642. sunlinepr:


Someone mentioned Sandy earlier. While looking through my bookmarks I found this.

Sorry...29 OCT 12
Most of us know she was not classified as a hurricane which in itself caused a stir.
Link Animation
USGS Tectonic summary of this morning's 6.1 near Napa, CA - which document I now see Neo quoted earlier. LPL
(Hi Neo!)
12z GFS at 123 hours (we have a long time to watch this system)
Quoting 1647. MiamiHurricanes09:

Let's see what Recon finds when it gets to 04L. The difference between the circulation being at 22N and 24N could have major track implications.
Looks like recon has about 15 more minutes to Cristobal....
how about California quake 6 ??
we finally see our first Category 5 with winds 160 mph later today
Hurricane Marie
Pressure: 929 mb wow!!

Last Updated Aug 24, 2014 1500 GMT
Location 16.0N 111.4W Movement WNW
Wind 150 MPH
Say, does anybody know if LRandyB is going to be updating his blog this year? So far he has no entries for 2014....

:o/
Let's just admire it for a second.

1661. Melagoo
Wow nice looking storm Marie

Here's a disorganized Cristobal on the latest ISS pass.


Has some good convective activity..
There's about 3 different places a center could be though...
Wait a minute here.. I'm seeing the center of circulation of Christobal in the lower levels at about 24.5N and 73.0W. 11AM Advisory shows 23.6N 73.1W.. This just seems way off from what the 11AM advisory shows.

Tell me I am wrong, and show me why the storm is not actually a full degree to the North of where the NHC says it is.

And finally, consensus at least in general direction away from FL Peninsula.
More action after Cristobal.
we had a earthquake patrap and i feel like crying...grateful it wasn't as bad as it could have been

http://www.ktvu.com
Quoting 1642. sunlinepr:




What a storm.
1670. ncstorm

Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 13m

GFS a bit further west before going out. Still has energy escaping ne out of storm, which caused large e bias last night. ECMWF better
Quoting 1668. WaterWitch11:

we had a earthquake patrap and i feel like crying...grateful it wasn't as bad as it could have been

http://www.ktvu.com
Glad to see you are okay... though perhaps rather "shaken up"....


off to make a photo album for my son of his earlier years.
He turns thirty this week and I've got to get it expressed mailed out tomorrow.
1673. guygee
Quoting 1631. BahaHurican:

Sure does look in the visible sat loop like the LLC is running quickly Nward away from the convection .... impacts undeclared...
Reminds me of young Arthur ...*These aren't the vortices you were looking for". The entire general circulation is elongated and another center will become apparent. Continuity will be maintained.
Quoting 1668. WaterWitch11:

we had a earthquake patrap and i feel like crying...grateful it wasn't as bad as it could have been

http://www.ktvu.com

Glad you're okay.
Quoting 1664. JrWeathermanFL:



Has some good convective activity..
There's about 3 different places a center could be though...


Think there are only two places. LLC off to the N...And the MLC which is lagging behind in the Bahamas. Would be interested in hearing a more expert opinion on the matter though.
1676. LBAR
Quoting 1660. MiamiHurricanes09:

Let's just admire it for a second.




I became fascinated with hurricanes as a young boy because I wanted to know how something that looked so beautiful would cause so much damage. Marie is a beauty for sure.
1677. SevoReb
So are we in agreement that the TROF is extending further south than originally anticipated, causing TS Cristobal to head NNE earlier?
Quoting 1667. unknowncomic:

More action after Cristobal.

Dolly?.Is that you!?.
Quoting 1667. unknowncomic:

More action after Cristobal.

either model has it too far north because a hurricane or CV is pretty much impossible. northern bias i guess
1680. sar2401
Quoting VegasRain:
Wait a minute here.. I'm seeing the center of circulation of Christobal in the lower levels at about 24.5N and 73.0W. 11AM Advisory shows 23.6N 73.1W.. This just seems way off from what the 11AM advisory shows.

Tell me I am wrong, and show me why the storm is not actually a full degree to the North of where the NHC says it is.

Looking at it on water vapor, I don't see any clear evidence of a center at 24N. It looks like some clump of convection has moved off from the storm to the north but I've also never been able to identify the center of a weak system from any kind of satellite image. Might also be some interaction between the storm and the front going on.

If the LLC gets ejected northward and the convection stays south with the MLC, then this could have a big impact on the track and the modles are basically useless again lol
It's amazing the destruction that storms can cause.
Not because people are dying, but because weather is powerful enough to take property and life away.

The power of weather is stunning.
Quoting 1679. wunderweatherman123:

either model has it too far north because a hurricane or CV is pretty much impossible. northern bias i guess

The GFS looks too fast with genesis after the tropical wave exits the coast, but the overall pattern would favor a quick latitude gain.
Quoting 1683. TropicalAnalystwx13:


The GFS looks too fast with genesis after the tropical wave exits the coast, but the overall pattern would favor a quick latitude gain.
sorry Cody but I would disagree with you there. yeah it's strong way too fast but the general steering is west. if it emerges south of the CV islands that is. if it's further north then yeah your right
Product: Air Force Tropical RECCO Message (URNT11 KNHC)
Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 16:33Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 305)
Storm Number: 04
Storm Name: Cristobal (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 8
Observation Number: 02

Mandatory Data...

Observation Time: Sunday, 16:30Z
Radar Capability: Yes
Aircraft Altitude: Below 10,000 meters
Coordinates: 20.4N 69.7W
Location: 118 miles (190 km) to the SE (128°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR).
Turbulence: None
Conditions Along Flight Route: In clouds all the time (continuous instrument meteorological conditions)
Pressure Altitude: 7,320 meters
Flight Level Wind: 5 knots (~ 5.8 mph) (Bearing was unavailable.)
- The above is a spot wind.
- Winds were obtained using doppler radar or inertial systems.
Flight Level Temperature: -16°C
Flight Level Dew Point: -16°C
Weather (within 30 nautical miles): Overcast / Undercast
400 mb Surface Altitude: 7,580 geopotential meters
GFS has the MJO staying in the atlantic for the first 2 week september. has 3 tropical storms active in 2 weeks. would bring the total to 7
Quoting 1681. Hurricanes101:

If the LLC gets ejected northward and the convection stays south with the MLC, then this could have a big impact on the track and the modles are basically useless again lol
I'm already favoring the MLC simply due to the fact that it's situated under rather deep convection.
Anticyclone now outrunning Crystobal. Clearly the northern portion feeling the pull of the trough but with the COC now in question, whether or not there is a COC or if the mid level has taken over and a new COC has yet to reform; makes me wonder if the outrunning anticyclone will have any eastward affect on Crystobal's path. Models have come together nicely, but with no well defined COC, that could change.
I think the LLC is getting ejected to the north, and the MLC is staying with some waning convection.
The MLC then would have to work down to the surface.

How would, if this pans out, impact things??
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 1687. MiamiHurricanes09:

I'm already favoring the MLC simply due to the fact that it's situated under rather deep convection.


I would think if that is the case, then the forecast tracks are for the most part wrong.
I think we will have an upgrade by this evening and we will find the center to be located around 22 and 73...........moving near due west by then. The storm is on the wrong end of the front for much northerly movement....
I also think as long as the mysterious Hurricane vanishing weapon is used we could have a Cat 3 out of this when all is said and done, etc...:)
NHC's 11am Forecast Cone looks very similar to the 8am Cone keeping Christobal well off the Eastcoast.
1695. FOREX
Quoting 1692. forecaster1:

I think we will have an upgrade by this evening and we will find the center to be located around 22 and 73...........moving near due west by then. The storm is on the wrong end of the front for much northerly movement....
1696. guygee
Decoupling or re-organizing?

Looks like any systems that move toward the Leeward Islands and PR will not make it very far west with all of these early season troughs digging far south. October in the Caribbean may be any possible threat to the US.
1698. hydrus
Cape Verde Islands may get a T.C.

Quoting 1696. guygee:

Decoupling or re-organizing?




More of a decoupling.......... the LLC is feeling more of the ridging sticking out thus moving more w or wnw at 5mph. You can clearly see the main MLC further SE. Now this DOESN'T mean the storm will come to Florida, just that its moving wnw but will turn NW-NNW once convection refires later this evening. Now if enough drier air moves further south from off NE florida, it could slide more wnw than expected and what the models show, so if you are hoping for that 5% chance for this to make landfall N of say 28N..you have to hope the LLC moves more W and doesn't develop at least till monday evening.
Quoting 1479. sar2401:

For the Gulf Coast, however, tropical storms are major sources of summer rainfall. Not having the average number of tropical storms in the Gulf leads to the recurrent droughts we've seen from Texas to Georgia. It's been a big problem for agriculture. The lack of storms also leads to heat waves like we're having now. Without tropical storms, we don't get back building of sediment in the barrier islands, so the barrier islands get more eroded each year. I'm not wishing destruction on anyone (especially me) but we do need tropical storms in the Gulf and we are way below average on those over the last 8 years.

You're right on all of these points.
I still think so but I miss judged the frontal interference. I am probably off by 24 hrs.. :)Quoting 1695. FOREX: