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Atlantic Disturbance 96L and Tropical Storm Rachel

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:19 PM GMT on September 26, 2014

(By Steve Gregory - Substituting for Dr. Masters who is on Vacation.)

INVEST 96L NOT A THREAT

A small area of disturbed weather with periodic bursts of convection near 13°N/42°W remains disorganized as it continues to drift WNW at around 5Kts. Although wind shear remain moderate near 15Kts, there are indications of some outflow at high levels – the system remains surrounded by relatively dry and somewhat stable air which is inhibiting development. None of the global or dynamical specialized hurricane models are forecasting development, while the typically overdone statistically based intensity models are forecasting a slight intensification over the next 5 days. Assuming the system even survives at all, it’s likely to move WNW and then NW before getting absorbed by an approaching upper level TROF.

There are only a couple other Tropical waves across the Tropical Atlantic basin and they’re embedded in generally hostile environments. Meanwhile, I can no longer identify any upstream tropical waves over Africa – a sure sign that the ‘Cape Verdes’ Hurricane Season is rapidly winding down – with the Caribbean region likely to be only area where a cyclone that could threaten the US may yet develop during the remainder of the Fall season.

TROPICAL STORM RACHEL COULD BRING RAINS TO BAJA

Tropical Storm Rachel is located about 450NM SW of the southern tip of Baja, moving WNW at 14Kts. Though NHC is carrying this system as a relatively weak storm with sustained winds near 45Kts, there has been a strong increase in deep convection closer to the low level storm center over the past few hours, and it’s possible winds have increased to near 55Kts – though there has not been a recent Microwave or ASCAT satellite pass to confirm this. Regardless of any intensity change in the short term, the storm is heading towards cooler SST’s and will begin to slowly weaken during the next 72 hrs.

The longer term track of RACHEL is somewhat problematic beyond 72 hours. The western end of a mid-level high pressure ridge over Mexico is expected to weaken during the next few days as a major, deep-layered TROF in the Northeast Pacific digs southeastward towards the western US. The GFS, which is often quite good at track forecasts, calls for Rachel to turn northward this weekend and then head Northeast towards central Baja around the periphery of the high pressure ridge to its east. IF this occurs, the only significant threat would be for locally heavy rainfall, with a low but real chance that high level moisture would eventually stream northeastward across northern Mexico towards the Rockies ahead of the mid-latitude TROF now heading for the western US that will, by next week, be moving eastward across the Rockies. However, depending on how quickly RACHEL spins down to depression or even remnant Low, the much shallower system would most likely never take the turn to the Northeast, but would simply continue on a WNW or NW track as a dissipating remnant swirl.



CLICK IMAGE to open full size image in new window

Fig 1: This mornings overview of the Tropical Atlantic (and East Pacific) shows INVEST 96L essentially in the same area as yesterday about 1,100NM east of the Caribbean, along with Tropical Storm RACHEL well to the southwest of Baja. A Tropical Wave from near western Cuba extends S/SW across the Yucatan and out over the Pacific. This wave is westbound at 18Kts, but lies within an unfavorable area for development. The tropical wave in the far eastern Caribbean is westbound at 14Kts, within an area of deep tropical moisture, but an extremely hostile wind environment. The only other significant tropical wave remains nearly stationary along the west coast of Africa – and is showing signs of being absorbed into the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). For the first time since the start of Hurricane Season – no tropical waves are observed over Africa as the ITCZ / African Monsoonal TROF has shifted southward towards the equatorial region, and is also weakening. It would be somewhat surprising to see any strong tropical waves come off the African coast during the remainder of the season.




CLICK BOTTOM IMAGE to open full size image in new window

Fig 2: The (Bottom) image frame of the 72 hour Total Precipitable Water (TPW) ‘Loop’ (top) helps to identify Tropical Waves across the Atlantic. The darker the orange shading – the greater the depth and total volume of moisture derived from satellite imagery. The Loop imagery itself also helps to determine any ‘rotation’ that may be associated with the tropical waves. The more ‘specialized’ last image frame from the loop (Bottom) also includes component wind vector information to show actual areas and magnitudes of ‘rotation. INVEST 96L has become a somewhat ‘lone’ area of deep moisture in mid-Atlantic – and while watching the 72-hour loop, you can see the original large area of deep moisture that had been in this region a few days ago shifted westward to where the TW in the eastern CARIB is now. At the same time, the deep moisture that was orientated east-west as part of the ITCZ ‘bubbled’ northward, and then ‘pinched off’ into the small disturbance 96L. Over the past 24 hours, dry air appears to be infiltrating the deep moisture field associated with 96L.




Fig 3: A closer look at the mostly satellite derived low level winds (with a few surface OBS as well) surrounding 96L show a sharp inverted TROF structure, but little to no clear evidence of an actual low level circulation.




Fig 4: Upper air winds (above 25,000 Ft) is overlaid with the wind shear analysis from the UW CIMSS group, and shows moderate SW wind shear averaging about 15Kts across 96L. There is, however, some outflow wind vectors near some of the heavier convection – but overall, as the system moves WNW over the next few days – it will eventually encounter strong wind shear – and development of this system is extremely unlikely.




Fig 5: The larger overview of the western Atlantic region clearly hints at a rapid shift towards he cool season with a very deep and long wave upper air TROF from the northern Atlantic southwestward to a strong upper Low now over Puerto Rico and continuing into the southern CARIB. A high amplitude ridge extends from near the Yucatan northeastward to just off the east coast. Overall, we find a chaotic and highly energetic but hostile wind pattern across the GOM eastward to the central Atlantic.




Fig 6: The early morning color enhanced IR (Infra-Red) image of Tropical Storm Rachel continues to show very deep convection, with cloud top temperatures near -60°C (indicative of tops near 45,000’).




Fig 7: A closer look at the high level winds near RACHEL shows a very well developed, though not especially strong, anti-cyclonic (clockwise) outflow wind pattern atop the storm. But as the system moves further to the WNW, cooler SST’s and an increasing drier environment surrounding the storm will lead to a slow but steady weakening.




Fig 8: Steering level winds show Rachel still in a E/SE wind flow, but approaching a break in the ridge centered over Mexico and another strong high pressure center well north of Hawaii. The ‘break’ in the ridge is due a relatively deep-layered TROF approaching the west coast. If the storm maintains it strength long enough (as the GFS is calling for) it will eventually be caught up in the southwesterly wind flow around the western periphery of the High over Mexico, and will head towards Baja – weakening considerably by the time it reaches that area. If the storm weakens sooner than the GFS is forecasting, the shallow system will never turn Northeast – instead simply drifting WNW within the general trade wind environment.

The next Tropical Update will be issued tomorrow.

Steve

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Steve...
Woah real analysis of tropical systems, refreshing. Thanks Dr. Gregory!
Repost:

That being said in regards to Atlantic activity, the GFS has been showing in the long run (>10 days from now) a trough dipping down into the southeastern United States, perhaps bringing some cooler weather for the sunshine state too. There's a chance that trough could end up getting a piece of energy split off in the SW Caribbean, so I'd watch out for possible tropical cyclogenesis there in the middle of October. Even inactive hurricane seasons can produce a surprise hurricane there, i.e., Ida in 2009.
Thanks Dr. Gregory! Great blog!
Thanks Dr. Steve,
Thank you Mr. Gregory I wonder if the Western Caribbean will produce a hurricane this year..Lotta fronts hangin in the gulf too...
Whew! thank you so much!.Boy did we need a break.
Thanks for the new blog Dr. Gregory.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Whew! thank you so much!.Boy did we need a break.
Please change your avatar, it's scary. :)
ALL STATIONS: PLEASE BE AWARE SOME 35 ASOS SITES AND
PERHAPS MORE AWOS/AWIS OBS SITES ARE BEING IMPACTED BY THE
INCIDENT AT CHICAGO ARTCC THIS MORNING. THIS MESSAGE IS
BEING SENT TO ALL SO YOU ARE AWARE OF THE OUTAGE SITES.

THE LENGTH OF THIS OUTAGE IS UNKNOWN, STAFF HAS BEEN
EVACUATED AND SENT HOME. IT MAY BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING BEFORE THE STATUS OF THE EQUIPMENT AT THE CENTER IS
KNOWN.

OFFICES IN MI, IL, IA, WI, AND IN ARE MOST IMPACTED AND MAY
HAVE NUMEROUS MISSING REPORTS ON YOUR WEBSITE AND NWR. FOR
YOU WE HAVE PREPARED THE FOLLOWING DRAFT PNS FOR YOUR USE.
A COPY WILL ALSO BE SENT VIA EMAIL FOR YOUR CONVENIENCE FOR
USE ON THE WEB.

DRAFT PNS BELOW, THANKS MKE/LOT/ZAU/ZID FOR YOUR ASSISTANCE
THIS AM.

BRIAN HIRSCH/JENNIFER RITTERLING CR ROC



PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
XXXXX/XXXX 1100 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

...MISSING WEATHER OBSERVATION DATA...

DUE TO AN OUTAGE AT THE AIR ROUTE TRAFFIC CONTROL
CENTER...MANY WEATHER OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES ARE NOT AVAILABLE. IT IS UNKNOWN AT THIS
TIME WHEN DATA WILL AGAIN BE AVAILABLE.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTERS WILL USE THE TOTAL
OBSERVATION METHOD TO CONTINUE TO ISSUE WEATHER PRODUCTS AND
FORECASTS.

WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE THIS OUTAGE MAY CAUSE.

THE IMPACTED ASOS OBSERVATIONS INCLUDE:

KAZO KALAMAZOO MI KBMI BLOOMINGTON IL KBTL BATTLE CREEK MI
KCID CEDAR RAPIDS IA KCMI CHAMPAIGN/URBANA IL KDPA
CHICAGO/DU PAGE IL KLAF LAFAYETTE IN KMDW CHICAGO/MIDWAY IL
KMLI MOLINE IL KOSH OSHKOSH WI KPWK CHICAGO EXECUTIVE
AIRPORT IL KRAC RACINE WI KVPZ VALPARAISO IN KDBQ DUBUQUE IA
KGRR GRAND RAPIDS MI KMKE MILWAUKEE WI KMKG MUSKEGON MI KPIA
PEORIA IL KSBN SOUTH BEND IN KY50 WAUTOMA WI KALO WATERLOO
IA KARR CHICAGO/AURORA IL KBEH BENTON HARBOR MI KBIV HOLLAND
MI KDVN DAVENPORT IA KENW KENOSHA WI KFLD FOND DU LAC WI
KGSH GOSHEN IN KIOW IOWA CITY IA KLNR LONE ROCK WI KMIW
MARSHALLTOWN IA KOVS BOSCOBEL WI KSBM SHEBOYGAN WI KUGN
CHICAGO/WAUKEGAN IL
Wow. It's Hot today down here.
Must be GW.

.... oh. sorry. that was the last blog......

:):))

Nice blog, thank you.
Certainly looks to be the end of the Atl Hurricane season, doesn't it ?
Nothing too prominent in the GOM, the Caribbean, wither.
Another 'strange' season.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Repost:

That being said in regards to Atlantic activity, the GFS has been showing in the long run (>10 days from now) a trough dipping down into the southeastern United States, perhaps bringing some cooler weather for the sunshine state too. There's a chance that trough could end up getting a piece of energy split off in the SW Caribbean, so I'd watch out for possible tropical cyclogenesis there in the middle of October. Even inactive hurricane seasons can produce a surprise hurricane there, i.e., Ida in 2009.



Yeah, I wouldn't put a nail in the season just yet.
So far we haven't see any strong cold fronts deep into the GOM. That will pretty much shut down Texas and the N.W. GOM for the season.
But in the process, that can open the door to tropical formation that can threaten Florida (as you mentioned).

As long as we don't get a monster early season Polar front that sweeps all the way through the Western Caribbean. That will end the season for the U.S.
Thank You Dr. Steve Gregory for an in depth analysis of the Tropics.



Sidney, Montana reached a high of 97%uFFFDF yesterday. They have not seen temperatures that high since May.



Link
14. SLU
000
ABNT20 KNHC 261716
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brennan


Been another very boring season. Someone please press the reset button.

Hurricane Wilma formed when strong cold fronts where diving down across the U.S./GOM.
Florida was basically the only location in the U.S. still seeing tropical weather.

Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Hurricane Wilma formed when strong cold fronts where diving down across the U.S./GOM.
Florida was basically the only location in the U.S. still seeing tropical weather.



I remember it being pretty chilly behind Wilma, which was odd for a hurricane.
Quoting 10. nrtiwlnvragn:

ALL STATIONS: PLEASE BE AWARE SOME 35 ASOS SITES AND
PERHAPS MORE AWOS/AWIS OBS SITES ARE BEING IMPACTED BY THE
INCIDENT AT CHICAGO ARTCC THIS MORNING. THIS MESSAGE IS
BEING SENT TO ALL SO YOU ARE AWARE OF THE OUTAGE SITES.

THE LENGTH OF THIS OUTAGE IS UNKNOWN, STAFF HAS BEEN
EVACUATED AND SENT HOME. IT MAY BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING BEFORE THE STATUS OF THE EQUIPMENT AT THE CENTER IS
KNOWN.

OFFICES IN MI, IL, IA, WI, AND IN ARE MOST IMPACTED AND MAY
HAVE NUMEROUS MISSING REPORTS ON YOUR WEBSITE AND NWR. FOR
YOU WE HAVE PREPARED THE FOLLOWING DRAFT PNS FOR YOUR USE.
A COPY WILL ALSO BE SENT VIA EMAIL FOR YOUR CONVENIENCE FOR
USE ON THE WEB.

DRAFT PNS BELOW, THANKS MKE/LOT/ZAU/ZID FOR YOUR ASSISTANCE
THIS AM.

BRIAN HIRSCH/JENNIFER RITTERLING CR ROC



PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
XXXXX/XXXX 1100 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

...MISSING WEATHER OBSERVATION DATA...

DUE TO AN OUTAGE AT THE AIR ROUTE TRAFFIC CONTROL
CENTER...MANY WEATHER OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES ARE NOT AVAILABLE. IT IS UNKNOWN AT THIS
TIME WHEN DATA WILL AGAIN BE AVAILABLE.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTERS WILL USE THE TOTAL
OBSERVATION METHOD TO CONTINUE TO ISSUE WEATHER PRODUCTS AND
FORECASTS.

WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE THIS OUTAGE MAY CAUSE.

THE IMPACTED ASOS OBSERVATIONS INCLUDE:

KAZO KALAMAZOO MI KBMI BLOOMINGTON IL KBTL BATTLE CREEK MI
KCID CEDAR RAPIDS IA KCMI CHAMPAIGN/URBANA IL KDPA
CHICAGO/DU PAGE IL KLAF LAFAYETTE IN KMDW CHICAGO/MIDWAY IL
KMLI MOLINE IL KOSH OSHKOSH WI KPWK CHICAGO EXECUTIVE
AIRPORT IL KRAC RACINE WI KVPZ VALPARAISO IN KDBQ DUBUQUE IA
KGRR GRAND RAPIDS MI KMKE MILWAUKEE WI KMKG MUSKEGON MI KPIA
PEORIA IL KSBN SOUTH BEND IN KY50 WAUTOMA WI KALO WATERLOO
IA KARR CHICAGO/AURORA IL KBEH BENTON HARBOR MI KBIV HOLLAND
MI KDVN DAVENPORT IA KENW KENOSHA WI KFLD FOND DU LAC WI
KGSH GOSHEN IN KIOW IOWA CITY IA KLNR LONE ROCK WI KMIW
MARSHALLTOWN IA KOVS BOSCOBEL WI KSBM SHEBOYGAN WI KUGN
CHICAGO/WAUKEGAN IL


Do you know what happened? Staff evacuated?? Does that just mean they got to go home because there was a power failure, or something more serious?
Quoting 17. VAbeachhurricanes:



Do you know what happened? Staff evacuated?? Does that just mean they got to go home because there was a power failure, or something more serious?
There was a fire in the ATC Tower at Aurora. CNN says apparently it was an attempted suicide.
Quoting 12. Sfloridacat5:




Yeah, I wouldn't put a nail in the season just yet.
So far we haven't see any strong cold fronts deep into the GOM. That will pretty much shut down Texas and the N.W. GOM for the season.
But in the process, that can open the door to tropical formation that can threaten Florida (as you mentioned).

As long as we don't get a monster early season Polar front that sweeps all the way through the Western Caribbean. That will end the season for the U.S.
Yep...And many major hurricanes originated in that very area during very inactive seasons...1921 comes to mind because it was a massive storm. It was said that every island from Fort Myers Beach to Egmont Key was under water....Link

Thank you Steve....So far, Looks like another good year for south Florida...Crossing fingers...
Quoting 15. Sfloridacat5:

Hurricane Wilma formed when strong cold fronts where diving down across the U.S./GOM.
Florida was basically the only location in the U.S. still seeing tropical weather.


The last hurricane to make landfall in Florida. It does not seem like it has been 9 years, time flies when you get older.
Quoting 18. GTstormChaserCaleb:

There was a fire in the ATC Tower at Aurora. CNN says apparently it was an attempted suicide.


woof, that sucks. Tons of people stranded.
REF: Chances of deep eastern US TROFs spinning off cut-off Lows into the CARIB - or weak frontal boundaries that enter the CARIB during OCT or even early NOV, leading to cyclone formation - yes that often happens. I had already mentioned this in a couple prior posts (in my blog). So as 'Cape Verdes season' ends, 'Caribbean Season' tends to develop as it becomes the last 'refuge' where conditions favorable for cyclone formation can be found before Hurricane Season really ends.

Steve
Quoting 21. GTstormChaserCaleb:

The last hurricane to make landfall in Florida. It does not seem like it has been 9 years, time flies when you get older.
>I hear ya GT.... Older and safer.... Love it..
Areal Flood Advisory
Statement as of 1:57 PM EDT on September 26, 2014
The National Weather Service in Melbourne has issued an

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for... Lake County in Florida... this includes the cities of...Clermont...Lake Louisa...Lake Harris...Leesburg...

western Orange County in Florida... this includes the cities of...Zellwood...Winter Garden... Windermere...Pine Hills...Ocoee...Maitland...Lockhart...Lake Apopka...Apopka...

western Seminole County in Florida... this includes the cities of...Longwood...Lake Mary...Casselberry... Altamonte Springs...

western Volusia County in Florida... this includes the cities of...Pierson...Orange City...deleon Springs...Deland...DeBary...Barberville...

* until 400 PM EDT.

* At 155 PM EDT...Weather Service Doppler radar indicated slow moving showers with very heavy rain developing across the advisory area. Radar indicates that up to around one inch of rain has already fallen in some locations in the last hour...and rainfall totals between one and three inches will be possible before the rain tapers off.

The onset of flooding of roads...and urban and poor drainage areas will be more rapid than usual...given the heavy rain that has fallen since early in the week.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flood Advisory means heavy rainfall is causing or is likely to cause ponding of water in urban areas and elevate river or stream flows. Minor flooding may cause temporary Lane or Road closures. The threat of water entering homes and businesses has not yet materialized..but may.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause temporary flooding of urban areas...such as highways...streets and intersections as well as poor drainage areas and low lying spots.

Motorists should deactivate cruise control and slow down in heavy rainfall to reduce the risk of hydroplaning. Leave safe distance between other vehicles. Do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the roadway. The water depth may be too great to allow your car to cross safely. State law requires headlights to be turned on when windshield wipers are in use.

To report flooding...have the nearest law enforcement agency relay your report to the National Weather Service forecast office.
Shear is really blowing the tops off of everything that forms in the GOM.

Streets are flooding rapidly here as we are over 2" already in 24 minutes of rain and it is near zero vis outside.

Quoting 26. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Areal Flood Advisory
Statement as of 1:57 PM EDT on September 26, 2014
The National Weather Service in Melbourne has issued an

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for... Lake County in Florida... this includes the cities of...Clermont...Lake Louisa...Lake Harris...Leesburg...

western Orange County in Florida... this includes the cities of...Zellwood...Winter Garden... Windermere...Pine Hills...Ocoee...Maitland...Lockhart...Lake Apopka...Apopka...

western Seminole County in Florida... this includes the cities of...Longwood...Lake Mary...Casselberry... Altamonte Springs...

western Volusia County in Florida... this includes the cities of...Pierson...Orange City...deleon Springs...Deland...DeBary...Barberville...

* until 400 PM EDT.

* At 155 PM EDT...Weather Service Doppler radar indicated slow moving showers with very heavy rain developing across the advisory area. Radar indicates that up to around one inch of rain has already fallen in some locations in the last hour...and rainfall totals between one and three inches will be possible before the rain tapers off.

The onset of flooding of roads...and urban and poor drainage areas will be more rapid than usual...given the heavy rain that has fallen since early in the week.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Flood Advisory means heavy rainfall is causing or is likely to cause ponding of water in urban areas and elevate river or stream flows. Minor flooding may cause temporary Lane or Road closures. The threat of water entering homes and businesses has not yet materialized..but may.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause temporary flooding of urban areas...such as highways...streets and intersections as well as poor drainage areas and low lying spots.

Motorists should deactivate cruise control and slow down in heavy rainfall to reduce the risk of hydroplaning. Leave safe distance between other vehicles. Do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the roadway. The water depth may be too great to allow your car to cross safely. State law requires headlights to be turned on when windshield wipers are in use.

To report flooding...have the nearest law enforcement agency relay your report to the National Weather Service forecast office.


We may see this upgraded to a flood warning as flooding is occurring very fast here in Longwood.
OIA the official reporting station in Orlando is now over 8" of rain for the month.

Quoting 30. StormTrackerScott:

OIA the official reporting station in Orlando is now over 8" of rain for the month.




Been pretty dry this side. Except for a 15 minute shower last night, been not much given the high rain chances.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I remember it being pretty chilly behind Wilma, which was odd for a hurricane.


Yep, the back side of Wilma had very strong winds out of the north that pulled down cool dry air. Not what we're used to seeing as a tropical system exits the area.


000
ABNT20 KNHC 261716
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$

no more invest 96L
Quoting 31. BobinTampa:



Been pretty dry this side. Except for a 15 minute shower last night, been pretty dry given the high rain chances.


Same here. 2.41" for the month. Average is 7.31" Much higher totals between I-95 and the coast.
Dr. Masters on vacation again so we'll surely see something spin up while he's away....one can hope
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


woof, that sucks. Tons of people stranded.

When did you become a dog?
Quoting 36. TropicalAnalystwx13:


When did you become a dog?


Shouldn't you be in school or something?
It's raining in Florida in September. Go figure...
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Shouldn't you be in school or something?

Nope, just got out of English.

Quoting CybrTeddy:
Repost:

That being said in regards to Atlantic activity, the GFS has been showing in the long run (>10 days from now) a trough dipping down into the southeastern United States, perhaps bringing some cooler weather for the sunshine state too. There's a chance that trough could end up getting a piece of energy split off in the SW Caribbean, so I'd watch out for possible tropical cyclogenesis there in the middle of October. Even inactive hurricane seasons can produce a surprise hurricane there, i.e., Ida in 2009.

This is 2014. ;)
Quoting 37. VAbeachhurricanes:



Shouldn't you be in school or something?


Probably just gave him/herself a three day weekend, students don't browse the net on their phones during class...
Quoting win1gamegiantsplease:


Probably just gave him/herself a three day weekend, students don't browse the net on their phones during class...

I'm an Early College student, so I take both high school and college classes. Since I'm a HS senior, I only have one class (English) in the afternoon from 115-215. I went to my college Biology class this morning from 8-850. All my other classes (Art, Geology, Chemistry) are online.
gordon 94 developed from a combo easterly wave stalled front and leftover slop in the sw carib. it was a wet one for western hispanola
Thanks Dr. Gregory. Never thought about the trof issue an E-Pac hurricanes until your example. Those same eastward propagating trof systems that often push an Atlantic storm out to sea (as they cross conus towards the east coast) can likewise push an E-Pac system back inland over Mexico and/or the SW conus as they head towards the US west coast.......................................Have a Great Weekend.
Quoting 41. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I'm an Early College student, so I take both high school and college classes. Since I'm a HS senior, I only have one class (English) in the afternoon from 115-215. I went to my college Biology class this morning from 8-850. All my other classes (Art, Geology, Chemistry) are online.


Ah online courses, how great they were when I was in community college (Guilford Co.). And do you do the early college at UNCW?
Quoting win1gamegiantsplease:


Ah online courses, how great they were when I was in community college (Guilford Co.). And do you do the early college at UNCW?

No, the early college in Burgaw. I take classes at CFCC.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Nope, just got out of English.


This is 2014. ;)


No this is Patrick.
Quoting 28. StormTrackerScott:

Streets are flooding rapidly here as we are over 2" already in 24 minutes of rain and it is near zero vis outside.



2 inches in 24 minutes?! Hmmmmmmm
Quoting 46. TropicalAnalystwx13:


No, the early college in Burgaw. I take classes at CFCC.


Ok, I know a few people who go there. That puts us about 5 years apart or so.
Quoting 49. tampabaymatt:


2 inches in 24 minutes?! Hmmmmmmm


Yeah over 5 inch an hour rain rates, definitely happened.
Quoting tampabaymatt:

2 inches in 24 minutes?! Hmmmmmmm


I would not doubt what Scott said. I know you like to be a smart *ss, but we had 6.30 inches of rain in 65 minutes last May 31st.
Great blog Dr. Gregory!
Quoting 16. CybrTeddy:



I remember it being pretty chilly behind Wilma, which was odd for a hurricane.


It was chilly indeed. I remember standing in line for 6 hours on the Turnpike for gas the day after. Although, it was beautiful outside.

you wanted rain well its rain u shall get
Quoting yankees440:


It was chilly indeed. I remember standing in line for 6 hours on the Turnpike for gas the day after. Although, it was beautiful outside.


Yea, it's always pretty beautiful outside after a hurricane, just normally it's blistering hot too. Very odd setup that day, for sure.
Quoting 52. Hernando44:



I would not doubt what Scott said. I know you like to be a smart *ss, but we had 6.30 inches of rain in 65 minutes last May 31st.


Nobody said I was doubting it. Thanks for assuming that and thanks for the petty insult though.
Sorry wishcasters, season is almost done.Don t be sad, wait until next season.All you need is no dry air,no Sal, very highs SST,a very wet Sahel,a persistent Bermuda High,no Tutts and of course La Nina.Good luck Floridians.
Quoting 58. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




A lot of daytime heating today along with a tropical wave moving E to W. Thunderstorms will be abundant on the west coast.
Quoting 48. CybrTeddy:



No this is Patrick.


Psst...is Cody Dirty Dan?
Quoting 28. StormTrackerScott:

Streets are flooding rapidly here as we are over 2" already in 24 minutes of rain and it is near zero vis outside.


yes alot of area's in florida under flood warnings now...should be getting to me later this evening...and here we've has sun all day so we have the daytime heating to add to the mix.

Quoting 56. CybrTeddy:



Yea, it's always pretty beautiful outside after a hurricane, just normally it's blistering hot too. Very odd setup that day, for sure.


As many have seen my Wilma video on this site, that video was only for the front side of the storm. The backside of the storm ushered in much cooler temps as I remember staying inside my car for the latter half.
Quoting 60. tampabaymatt:



A lot of daytime heating today along with a tropical wave moving E to W. Thunderstorms will be abundant on the west coast.
Looks like normal.....30 years ago...
Quoting 60. tampabaymatt:



A lot of daytime heating today along with a tropical wave moving E to W. Thunderstorms will be abundant on the west coast.
Quoting 65. hydrus:

Looks like normal.....30 years ago...
normal
been so long since we have seen normal we don't even know what it is anymore

Quoting 59. prcane4you:

Sorry wishcasters, season is almost done.Don t be sad, wait until next season.All you need is no dry air,no Sal, very highs SST,a very wet Sahel,a persistent Bermuda High,no Tutts and of course La Nina.Good luck Floridians.


I kind of have to agree with prcane4you. Atmosphere acting like an el-nino. Too much shear in Caribbean. Too much dry air in Atlantic, and well, the GOM doesn't look much better. I don't see conditions changing too much thru end of hurricane season.
P.S. - I sure as hell hope I am wrong :)
* FLOOD WARNING FOR
THE MYAKKA RIVER AT MYAKKA RIVER STATE PARK
* FROM LATE TONIGHT UNTIL NEXT WEEK.
Quoting 40. win1gamegiantsplease:



Probably just gave him/herself a three day weekend, students don't browse the net on their phones during class...

Looking for people who aren't on their phones during class like...


Students will text, tweet, go on the web, do anything really during class if they don't want to do the schoolwork. Not that I would ever go on my phone during class...

To keep this post somewhat weather related...the weather in SE MI is extremely boring, even for September. It's been 75 and mostly sunny for the past few days and will remain about 75 and mostly sunny for the next week. The weekend will be a little warmer, but other than that it is wash, rinse, repeat for the next week.
Thanks for the NewPost Mr. Gregory, My guess is all hell will break loose now the the Dr. is playing hooky.
72. josF
Thank you Mr. Gregory.
Quoting 65. hydrus:

Looks like normal.....30 years ago...


Agree. Pretty normal summertime day across Central Florida. Storms moving from east to west giving most of the area a nice soaking.
Quoting 73. luvtogolf:



Agree. Pretty normal summertime day across Central Florida. Storms moving from east to west giving most of the area a nice soaking.


I agree with you for the most part, but the coverage and intensity is slightly unusual for this late in the rainy season.
Quoting 64. yankees440:




As many have seen my Wilma video on this site, that video was only for the front side of the storm. The backside of the storm ushered in much cooler temps as I remember staying inside my car for the latter half.


Wilma's western side was equally impressive was it not? Michael Laca's chase video shows she had a lot of kick on both sides. Arthur's leading edge was ten times more intense than the back side at my location.
Lets see all the schools are back in session the summer vacationers are gone and it's September in Florida. All we have to talk about is a few inches of rain in Orlando this blog is a different breed than the old timers of when we had real storms.

Some talk about the end of the Hurricane season. What ever happened to the start and in between. I'm a old timer as I got interested in weather after Hurricane Camille.

What I see now is a drastic change of meteorology. Most pro's just watch computer animations of what could happen but rarely does. These younger model watchers never look outside of the box. The main stream mets seem to have it all covered except one very pertinent fact. Most never look up in the sky anymore there to programmed to watch a computer screen radar or satellite. I see more than ever anomalies that don't match up on computer with the sky or data in real time visual.

The variables with the ever changing environment of weather makes it a added benefit to have computer aided forecast. Maybe we should all look back at weather forecasting and where it started because something is defiantly not right. Is the weather just nature or something beyond what we just see on a computer?
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
OIA the official reporting station in Orlando is now over 8" of rain for the month.



That (8") would be normal for us here in Fort Myers.
Offically we picked up .35" today (still about 3" behind for the month).

I didn't get anything at the house, but the day isn't over yet. It's still hot (hasn't been rained cooled) at the house.
Quoting 67. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

normal
been so long since we have seen normal we don't even know what it is anymore


True..But I remember weather events from the 70,s and 80,s vividly..and we had some real bruisers my Mom would say.
Quoting 74. tampabaymatt:



I agree with you for the most part, but the coverage and intensity is slightly unusual for this late in the rainy season.


Remember, the comment was about 30 years ago. Don't know if you were around then but the coverage we are seeing today was pretty normal when enhanced by a passing wave. Back then we would also see gusty winds of 25-35 mph in advance of the first line.
Quoting 74. tampabaymatt:



I agree with you for the most part, but the coverage and intensity is slightly unusual for this late in the rainy season.
Rainy season usually lasted into the third week of October. By then we would see the first significant cold front push out the moisture and change the pattern. There were times however when the Bermuda High re-established itself, bringing back another round of summer like weather....I have not seen that since 1995.
They've had some flood advisories for southern Collier County for the cell near Naples.

Many have noted that we are seeing the golden age of weather forecasting because of the advent of satellites (that cover many spectrums and help us look inside-sideways into weather systems in the case of certain orbits) and advances in computing models have helped with better forecasts. Long-term forecasting will always be a challenge because Mother Nature is not exactly predictable but at least the satt data can get us in the ball bark of when to expect certain types of weather for an approaching system. The devil will always be in the details but we have certainly come a long way in the last 50 years with the technology that can get generate more accurate maps and other data that mets can assimilate into their forecasting. I have always noticed the smell of salt water in the air from a tropical system moving inland (having lived in Florida all my life and experiencing several hurricanes) but like the fact that I know a few days in advance of where to be (or not to be) as opposed to having it sneak up on me with no prior warning when I go outside to walk the dog and suddenly smell the salt and see trees starting to sway around.
Quoting hydrus:
Rainy season usually lasted into the third week of October. By then we would see the first significant cold front push out the moisture and change the pattern. There were times however when the Bermuda High re-esablished itself, bringing back another round of summer like whether....I have not seen that since 1995.


Pretty good drop in Precipitation in October for my area. Then we get very dry for November.

September
8.31 inches

October
2.88 inches

November
1.96 inches

December
1.71
Quoting 84. Sfloridacat5:



Pretty good drop in Precipitation in October for my area. Then we get very dry for November.

October
2.88 inches

November
1.96 inches

December
1.71

My bet is those months will be wetter this year.
Quoting 85. hydrus:

My bet is those months will be wetter this year.


It already seems like we’ll get a jump start in early October. Local mets in Tampa are showing high rain chances for the foreseeable future.
Quoting hydrus:
My bet is those months will be wetter this year.


We're hoping so. We're about 14" below normal for the year.
It's been a weird summer. We haven't had our normal rainy season pattern this summer.
Wilmington, NC has not seen the sun all this week..our best chances come Sunday but the NAM is trending against it per the 3pm update per the NWS..next week looks the same without the sun but less rain..

this is not helping my Vitamin D intake :)
Quoting 86. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Impressive low there.
Quoting 75. win1gamegiantsplease:



Wilma's western side was equally impressive was it not? Michael Laca's chase video shows she had a lot of kick on both sides. Arthur's leading edge was ten times more intense than the back side at my location.


Yes, the backside (western) of the storm was rather ferocious and perhaps stronger than the front side.


BTW...The Giants are looking quite impressive I must say! I really doubted them going into the season but looks like that West Coast Offense is starting to work.
Great post Steve! Thanks for the time a effort you put into this on a Friday.
Love our International Space Station:



Seen from the ISS: Anvil clouds poke through a muddy sea of Saharan dust

Capital Weather Gang
We're normally one of the wettest locations in the state during the summer.

June
10.09 inches

July
9.04 inches

August
10.14 inches

September
8.31 inches
Quoting 88. Sfloridacat5:



We're hoping so. We're about 14" below normal for the year.
It's been a weird summer. We haven't had our normal rainy season pattern this summer.
Yep...Normal rainy seasons are not showing up like they use to....The backward pattern seems more the norm the past 10 years or so.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


You can see the snow covered mountains in that loop. Most of the state of Alaska is still snow/ice free.
Thanks!
A light dusting of snow in Barrow. Barrow actually sees very little snow for being so far north. Once the sea freezes over Barrow gets very little precipitation.

Quoting 96. Sfloridacat5:



You can see the snow covered mountains in that loop. Most of the state of Alaska is still snow/ice free.
because of warm waters up there

barrow gonna get lots of snow till waters freeze over if they do that is warm waters there as well
Quoting 87. tampabaymatt:



It already seems like we%u2019ll get a jump start in early October. Local mets in Tampa are showing high rain chances for the foreseeable future.
I would not be surprised if Florida takes a hit from the S.W. this year. The set up is becoming good for such a land falling storm...Way to far out to consider, but one can see the Bermuda High nosing very far to the west.

And here is our Mid-October storm as it develops in the West Central Caribbean. The Atlantic Basin is done for the year.
Quoting 99. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

because of warm waters up there

barrow gonna get lots of snow till waters freeze over if they do that is warm waters there as well

Date | 2014-09-24 20:00 Local ⇄ UTC
Data | Ocean Currents @ Surface + SST Anomaly
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
because of warm waters up there

barrow gonna get lots of snow till waters freeze over if they do that is warm waters there as well


Yeah, they see the most snow in the Fall. October is their snowiest month (9" on average).

Only 4.5" of total precipitation annually, but you don't need much precip for snow.
Quoting 100. hydrus:

I would not be surprised if Florida takes a hit from the S.W. this year. The set up is becoming good for such a hit...Way to far out to consider, but one can see the Bermuda High nosing very far to the west.



I've been thinking the same thing. Not sure about Fl but I think we'll get something down south moving northward. Obviously Florida sticks out and past tracks would lean that way. Might be something for WKC to watch for.
Quoting 100. hydrus:

I would not be surprised if Florida takes a hit from the S.W. this year. The set up is becoming good for such a land falling storm...Way to far out to consider, but one can see the Bermuda High nosing very far to the west.



Common Hydrus, you know better.....
South | Sep .26, 2014 3:19 pm ET
- Much of the region will get to enjoy a dry Saturday.
- Scattered thunderstorms Saturday along parts of the Southeast and Gulf Coasts.
- Rain and thunderstorms across parts of southern Texas, as well.
- A wetter Sunday for parts of the region mainly east of the Mississippi River as low pressure lifts out of the Gulf of Mexico.
- Staying wet Monday from Alabama to the Carolinas and southwest Virginia with a solid 1-3" rain possible for many areas.
Nice little cell on top of me in Tampa. Couple of inches in less than an hour. One more and the pool overflows
108. N3EG
Quoting 86. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



That's already number two for our early rainy season here in the Pacific NW.
Quoting 107. SunnyDaysFla:

Nice little cell on top of me in Tampa. Couple of inches in less than an hour. One more and the pool overflows


Yep, some really nice storms forming over the bay area. Lot's of lightning.
Another beautiful day in S C IL, we keep beating the forecast highs - by 2 Mon & Tues, 3 on Wed, 4 yesterday, +5 today (84 vs 79). currently 84 w/ 53 dew pt, 30.16" - dew pts up & press down from earlier this week, but still little change overall. Have kept pushing the rain chance back to 7th day of forecast. high 70s/ low 80s for highs, mid 50s to 60 for lows. Corn keeps coming out, still haven't seen beans come out, but sure some have somewhere. Only bad thing about today - it's our first sub 12 hr of sunlight day.
Quoting 108. N3EG:


That's already number two for our early rainy season here in the Pacific NW.
they be coming one right after another for a while I think or seems the pattern anyway
Quoting 105. yankees440:



Common Hydrus, you know better.....
Yes, I do...I also know that the Florida West Coast has taken more direct hits from tropical cyclones in October than any other month.
From StormW

"SPECIAL UPDATE%u2026SEP. 26, 2014%u2026ISSUED AT 3:20 P.M. EDT:

Analysis of satellite loop imagery over the western Atlantic indicates an area of low pressure may be trying to develop over portions of the Yucatan peninsula. Broad cyclonic turning is noted in the lower cloud deck, approximately at the 700-500 mb level, with a more noted vortex seen earlier near Latitude 18.0N%u202689.9W. This is in association with the tropical wave I had mentioned in the morning forecast synopsis. Since analysis this morning, the energy to the south has become the less noted feature, with cyclonic turning pretty much having formed more to the north, over the Yucatan peninsula. This is moving toward the west at an estimated 10 mph."


Any model support for this?
Man! we are getting nailed with rain here in east central Florida.
U mean Storm Who?
Local Tampa Bay mets nailed our forecast today. Since Monday they've been saying that Friday would be enhanced storms with an 80-90% chance of rain and it's storming pretty good now with coverage expanding.
Quoting 114. yankees440:

From StormW

"SPECIAL UPDATE%u2026SEP. 26, 2014%u2026ISSUED AT 3:20 P.M. EDT:

Analysis of satellite loop imagery over the western Atlantic indicates an area of low pressure may be trying to develop over portions of the Yucatan peninsula. Broad cyclonic turning is noted in the lower cloud deck, approximately at the 700-500 mb level, with a more noted vortex seen earlier near Latitude 18.0N%u202689.9W. This is in association with the tropical wave I had mentioned in the morning forecast synopsis. Since analysis this morning, the energy to the south has become the less noted feature, with cyclonic turning pretty much having formed more to the north, over the Yucatan peninsula. This is moving toward the west at an estimated 10 mph."


Any model support for this?


IDK, I looked at the visible, you can briefly see a very small mid-level spin that fizzles out. Doesn't look like anything to me.
Quoting 115. hurricanewatcher61:

Man! we are getting nailed with rain here in east central Florida.


Still? Looking at radar it looks like the rain is ending in East Central Florida with mostly light rain left.
Quoting 117. luvtogolf:

Local Tampa Bay mets nailed our forecast today. Since Monday they've been saying that Friday would be enhanced storms with an 80-90% chance of rain and it's storming pretty good now with coverage expanding.


1.22 inches so far today at my location in Citrus Park. Letting up some for now.
Quoting yankees440:
From StormW

"SPECIAL UPDATE%u2026SEP. 26, 2014%u2026ISSUED AT 3:20 P.M. EDT:

Analysis of satellite loop imagery over the western Atlantic indicates an area of low pressure may be trying to develop over portions of the Yucatan peninsula. Broad cyclonic turning is noted in the lower cloud deck, approximately at the 700-500 mb level, with a more noted vortex seen earlier near Latitude 18.0N%u202689.9W. This is in association with the tropical wave I had mentioned in the morning forecast synopsis. Since analysis this morning, the energy to the south has become the less noted feature, with cyclonic turning pretty much having formed more to the north, over the Yucatan peninsula. This is moving toward the west at an estimated 10 mph."


Any model support for this?


What kind of "Special Update" is this?

The circulation is no suprise to anyone that's been watching the GOM or Caribbean visible satellite.
Quoting 114. yankees440:

From StormW

"SPECIAL UPDATE%u2026SEP. 26, 2014%u2026ISSUED AT 3:20 P.M. EDT:

Analysis of satellite loop imagery over the western Atlantic indicates an area of low pressure may be trying to develop over portions of the Yucatan peninsula. Broad cyclonic turning is noted in the lower cloud deck, approximately at the 700-500 mb level, with a more noted vortex seen earlier near Latitude 18.0N%u202689.9W. This is in association with the tropical wave I had mentioned in the morning forecast synopsis. Since analysis this morning, the energy to the south has become the less noted feature, with cyclonic turning pretty much having formed more to the north, over the Yucatan peninsula. This is moving toward the west at an estimated 10 mph."


Any model support for this?


lol. I'm not even going to bother looking at the satellite imagery. Nothing is going to form. Just hype and drama. Must have coordinated this with Stormtop's "office".
East Orlando area, been steady off and on most of the day. But yes we have had some good burst of rain from time to time.
Quoting luvtogolf:


Still? Looking at radar it looks like the rain is ending in East Central Florida with mostly light rain left.
Quoting 122. Drakoen:



lol. I'm not even going to bother looking at the satellite imagery. Nothing is going to form. Just hype and drama. Must have coordinated this with Stormtop's "office".


I thought you and StormW were best friends:)
And by radar, it is still raining heavy in some spots.
Quoting hurricanewatcher61:
East Orlando area, been steady off and on most of the day. But yes we have had some good burst of rain from time to time.
Quoting 110. dabirds:

Another beautiful day in S C IL, we keep beating the forecast highs - by 2 Mon & Tues, 3 on Wed, 4 yesterday, +5 today (84 vs 79). currently 84 w/ 53 dew pt, 30.16" - dew pts up & press down from earlier this week, but still little change overall. Have kept pushing the rain chance back to 7th day of forecast. high 70s/ low 80s for highs, mid 50s to 60 for lows. Corn keeps coming out, still haven't seen beans come out, but sure some have somewhere. Only bad thing about today - it's our first sub 12 hr of sunlight day.

Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 2:13 PM PDT on September 26, 2014
Clear
83.5 °F
Clear
Heat Index: 83 °F
Humidity: 41%
Dew Point: 57 °F
Wind: 11.0 mph from the West
Wind Gust: 20.0 mph
Pressure: 29.79 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
I got 86.2/40% RH, so DP is 59F
was 91.9 yesterday, those are on the way out.
Quoting Drakoen:


lol. I'm not even going to bother looking at the satellite imagery. Nothing is going to form. Just hype and drama. Must have coordinated this with Stormtop's "office".


I'll take that as, you and StormW, are best friends.....(Sarcasmmm)
Quoting 128. yankees440:



I'll take that as, you and StormW, are best friends.....(Sarcasmmm)


Are you and luvtogolf the same person?
130. vis0
thanks (Mr. Gregory) for the Diplopia
Quoting 119. luvtogolf:



Still? Looking at radar it looks like the rain is ending in East Central Florida with mostly light rain left.


My pool is already overflowing from the rain we've had the past few days in East Orlando.
Quoting 131. Michfan:



My pool is already overflowing from the rain we've had the past few days in East Orlando.
well I guess u gonna have to drain some off
Quoting Drakoen:


Are you and luvtogolf the same person?


No...
Quoting Drakoen:


Are you and luvtogolf the same person?


They're all Jason!
Quoting 127. PedleyCA:


Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 2:13 PM PDT on September 26, 2014
Clear
83.5 °F
Clear
Heat Index: 83 °F
Humidity: 41%
Dew Point: 57 °F
Wind: 11.0 mph from the West
Wind Gust: 20.0 mph
Pressure: 29.79 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
I got 86.2/40% RH, so DP is 59F
was 91.9 yesterday, those are on the way out.


Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 5:00 PM EDT Friday 26 September 2014
Condition:Partly Cloudy
Pressure:30.3 inches
Tendency:falling
Visibility:15 miles
Temperature:72.9°F
Dewpoint:54.0°F
Humidity:51%
Wind:SSE 8 mph
Humidex: 77
Quoting CybrTeddy:


They're all Jason!


Who is Jason?
Quoting CybrTeddy:


They're all Jason!


If you would click on my name, you'll see I have a bio and a facebook page
Quoting 136. yankees440:



Who is Jason?


Only Jason would ask that question!

(jason was jasoncoolman, got banned about a thousand times on here, Taz's least favorite person).
Quoting Drakoen:


Are you and luvtogolf the same person?


Lol, no. I am the voice of reason as well as a 2 handicap (if u know what that is?).
Quoting CybrTeddy:


They're all Jason!

WOW!
141. vis0

Quoting 104. luvtogolf:



I've been thinking the same thing. Not sure about Fl but I think we'll get something down south moving northward. Obviously Florida sticks out and past tracks would lean that way. Might be something for WKC to watch for.
NOT OFFICIAL, just my educated guess::odds 60% to 70% higher than the last 2 months for the next ~18days on the "same thing" from 200˚ to 270˚. 40% a developing TS could go over stay coupled (rarity in last few yrs) & develope on Fla. W coast in this aforementioned period.
The GFS has another fantasy storm.But unlike last time this one has climatology on its side.We'll see..Even with Climatology this season is still a fail
Yall enjoy the weekend. Gonna watch some college football and relax after a long hard week.......................
Crazy weather traced to Arctic's impact on jet stream

The rapid retreat of Arctic sea ice caused by climate change may be to blame for more frequent prolonged spells of extreme weather in Europe, Asia and North America, such as heat waves, freezing temperatures or storms.

These are relatively short-term periods of bizarre weather, like the cold snap that paralysed North America earlier this year, rather than longer-term rises in temperature.

They are related to "stuck" weather patterns, Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University in New Brunswick, New Jersey, told a conference on Arctic sea ice reduction in London on 23 September. "Is it global warming? I think it's safe to answer yes," she told the meeting.

Francis said a growing number of studies, including her own, suggest that the melting Arctic is having knock-on effects on the jet stream, the river of air that snakes around the northern hemisphere at an altitude of around 5 to 6 kilometres, and which has a profound impact on the world's weather.

The jet stream is driven by the flow of air between the cold Arctic pole and warmer air that moves upwards from nearer the equator. As the warmer air advances polewards, it is swung eastwards by the Coriolis force which comes from Earth's spin, creating a snake-like stream. "It's a fast-moving river of air, a very messy creature," says Francis.

The strength of the jet stream depends on the temperature gradient between the regions of cold and warm air – the wider the difference, the faster and stronger the jet stream.
Read more: Crazy weather traced to Arctic's impact on jet stream
145. vis0
Quoting 142. washingtonian115:

The GFS has another fantasy storm.But unlike last time this one has climatology on its side.We'll see..Even with Climatology this season is still a fail

...remember whats over Puerto Rico are remnants of Hurr. Edouards upper levels, (lower level is heading towards N. Africa/Morocco)so these clouds have played  (as someone else  has posted the game's image thought i re-use it). oops that's the HIGH pressure sit n spin version, reverse the img ya get da pt.
Quoting 132. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

well I guess u gonna have to drain some off


Nah i'll just let it run into the pond behind the house.
Quoting 144. bwtranch:

Crazy weather traced to Arctic's impact on jet stream

The rapid retreat of Arctic sea ice caused by climate change may be to blame for more frequent prolonged spells of extreme weather in Europe, Asia and North America, such as heat waves, freezing temperatures or storms.

These are relatively short-term periods of bizarre weather, like the cold snap that paralysed North America earlier this year, rather than longer-term rises in temperature.

They are related to "stuck" weather patterns, Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University in New Brunswick, New Jersey, told a conference on Arctic sea ice reduction in London on 23 September. "Is it global warming? I think it's safe to answer yes," she told the meeting.

Francis said a growing number of studies, including her own, suggest that the melting Arctic is having knock-on effects on the jet stream, the river of air that snakes around the northern hemisphere at an altitude of around 5 to 6 kilometres, and which has a profound impact on the world's weather.

The jet stream is driven by the flow of air between the cold Arctic pole and warmer air that moves upwards from nearer the equator. As the warmer air advances polewards, it is swung eastwards by the Coriolis force which comes from Earth's spin, creating a snake-like stream. "It's a fast-moving river of air, a very messy creature," says Francis.

The strength of the jet stream depends on the temperature gradient between the regions of cold and warm air – the wider the difference, the faster and stronger the jet stream.
Read more: Crazy weather traced to Arctic's impact on jet stream

I have no doubt there is/will be alterations to the upper flow because of the warming Arctic, but as there are variable patterns now, so too do I think there will be under the new regime. I doubt we'll see one pattern. We'll see a different parade of patterns than the ones we've become accustomed to. IMHO
Quoting 109. luvtogolf:



Yep, some really nice storms forming over the bay area. Lot's of lightning.


Back here in the REAL Bay Area, we're getting a faint facsimile of the same. Showers starting to pop as a cold upper low approaches. Beautiful towering cumulus over the ridges, glaciating and hanging virga and/or actual rain over SF Bay. Bright sunshine inbetween, and still very balmy as the SSTs remain in the mid60s coastwise and near 70 in the Bay itself.
Quoting 147. BayFog:


I have no doubt there is/will be alterations to the upper flow because of the warming Arctic, but as there are variable patterns now, so too do I think there will be under the new regime. I doubt we'll see one pattern. We'll see a different parade of patterns than the ones we've become accustomed to. IMHO

Probably, there could be periods of high amplitude followed by low, making every year a bit different. I hope we don't see this pattern get entrenched. That's really hard on the ecosystem with wide swings of variance.
Good news from our local NWS office in Northern California: the rainfall this week puts most stations well above normal for the season (runs from July 1-June30) so far. So far so good.
Quoting 91. yankees440:



Yes, the backside (western) of the storm was rather ferocious and perhaps stronger than the front side.


BTW...The Giants are looking quite impressive I must say! I really doubted them going into the season but looks like that West Coast Offense is starting to work.


Likely a combination of her general eastward motion at landfall and the fact that she set the Atlantic minimum pressure record so a very well put together storm. Michael Laca's video was taken near Naples or Cape Coral I believe. Too far for me, the panhandle and maybe down to Canaveral is as far as I'd be willing to go to document a landfall. Farthest north would probably be Rehoboth, maybe Jersey if the storm looks worth it.

And speaking of Jersey yes we did look great, not too sure if it was more of the skins looking terrible. Cousins looked nothing like he did last week and they were a little depleted on D but we're headed in the right direction, next couple of weeks (Atlanta, Philly, Dallas) before the bye are huge.
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
548 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

FLC049-057-081-105-262315-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FA.Y.0105.140926T2148Z-140926T2315Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z .OO/
HARDEE FL-POLK FL-MANATEE FL-HILLSBOROUGH FL-
548 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHWESTERN HARDEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
SOUTHWESTERN POLK COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
SOUTHEASTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
NORTHEASTERN MANATEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 715 PM EDT

* AT 547 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
RAINFALL RATES OF TWO TO THREE INCHES PER HOUR ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ADVISED AREA...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS IMMINENT
OR OCCURRING.
3.66 inches of rain at my location in Citrus Park. We got absolutely drilled for about 45 minutes straight. Just a little drizzle now. Wow. Lots of standing water in my yard and street flooding.
Quoting 131. Michfan:



My pool is already overflowing from the rain we've had the past few days in East Orlando.


Draining my pool as I type this. Heh
Quoting 150. BayFog:

Good news from our local NWS office in Northern California: the rainfall this week puts most stations well above normal for the season (runs from July 1-June30) so far. So far so good.

What's the typical time for rains to start falling in Southern Cal? I know I could look it up, but I like asking people who live fairly close. I do understand that you are not in that climate zone yourself. Thanks.
Quoting 158. tampabaymatt:



Draining my pool as I type this. Heh
really coming down by me now..whew.
Scott was right earlier today...2 inches an hour or more......................FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
636 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

FLC081-270000-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FA.Y.0108.140926T2236Z-140927T0000Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z .OO/
MANATEE FL-
636 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHWESTERN MANATEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...PALMETTO...BRADENTON


* UNTIL 800 PM EDT

* AT 636 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
RAINFALL RATES OF TWO INCHES PER HOUR ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE ADVISED AREA...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
Quoting LargoFl:
Scott was right earlier today...2 inches an hour or more......................FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
636 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

FLC081-270000-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FA.Y.0108.140926T2236Z-140927T0000Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z .OO/
MANATEE FL-
636 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHWESTERN MANATEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...PALMETTO...BRADENTON


* UNTIL 800 PM EDT

* AT 636 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
RAINFALL RATES OF TWO INCHES PER HOUR ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE ADVISED AREA...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
Quoting LargoFl:
Scott was right earlier today...2 inches an hour or more......................FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
636 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

FLC081-270000-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FA.Y.0108.140926T2236Z-140927T0000Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z .OO/
MANATEE FL-
636 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
NORTHWESTERN MANATEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...PALMETTO...BRADENTON


* UNTIL 800 PM EDT

* AT 636 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
RAINFALL RATES OF TWO INCHES PER HOUR ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE ADVISED AREA...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.


Scott was right? Local tv mets have been predicting this all week? Especially Dennis Phillips.
Quoting 159. bwtranch:


What's the typical time for rains to start falling in Southern Cal? I know I could look it up, but I like asking people who live fairly close. I do understand that you are not in that climate zone yourself. Thanks.

Yeah, I don't know off the top of my head, but I'd guess a month or so later than us since it's a matter of the storms dipping to progressively lower latitudes as winter approaches.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN...
NORTHEASTERN PINELLAS COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
SOUTHWESTERN PASCO COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
NORTHWESTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 845 PM EDT

* AT 540 PM EDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED FLOODING ALONG HESPERDIES
STREET AND LAMBRIGHT STREET IN TAMPA. VEHICLES HAVE BEEN REPORTED
STUCK IN THE WATER WHICH IN SOME AREAS HAS BEEN REPORTED TO BE
WAIST DEEP.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.

Quoting 148. BayFog:



Back here in the REAL Bay Area, we're getting a faint facsimile of the same. Showers starting to pop as a cold upper low approaches. Beautiful towering cumulus over the ridges, glaciating and hanging virga and/or actual rain over SF Bay. Bright sunshine inbetween, and still very balmy as the SSTs remain in the mid60s coastwise and near 70 in the Bay itself.


Just hiked Sugarloaf in Sonoma.
Got rained on, but it was good!
LargoFL - Are you under water too?
nothing measurable today in this part of e cen florida
Quoting 167. Dakster:

LargoFL - Are you under water too?
no we had some good rain here but no flooding around me here..so far.
plant city florida........................................... .................................................. ..
Quoting LargoFl:
plant city florida........................................... .................................................. ..


That's just not far from me, sucks for them.
Quoting 172. CybrTeddy:



That's just not far from me, sucks for them.
yeah teddy came down hard over there for quite awhile huh
tampa area.............................................. ...............................................
In times like these i always remember..when you cant see the roadway..turn around,dont drown..
Quoting 176. PedleyCA:

Southern California version of Flooding

Water Main Break Floods West Hollywood Streets; Part of Sunset Boulevard Is Closed
wow i remember a time like that back up in NYC many many years ago..a water main broke and a river was flowing down my street.
interesting group of clouds moving west off the yucatan
notting going on in the Atlantic for the next 5 days
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven
TCFA for 99W.

WTPN21 PGTW 262230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5.2N 166.5E TO 8.6N 160.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 261800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 5.6N 166.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.6N
166.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.6N 166.0E, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KWAJALEIN ATOLL. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH PERSISTENT
CENTRAL CONVECTION WHILE THE CONVECTION ALONG THE OUTER PERIPHERIES
REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND FLARING IN NATURE WHILE SOME BROKEN
CONVECTIVE BANDING CAN BE OBSERVED ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK. A
261923Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
STRUCTURE AS CONVECTION REMAINS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. A 260958Z ASCAT
PASS SHOWED AN ELONGATED 10 TO 15 KNOT CIRCULATION WITH 20 TO 25
KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS BEING OFFSET BY WIDELY DIVERGENT EASTERLY OUTFLOW AND
THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
IN THE AREA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
272230Z.//
NNNN

Quoting 165. LargoFl:

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS IN...
NORTHEASTERN PINELLAS COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
SOUTHWESTERN PASCO COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
NORTHWESTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 845 PM EDT

* AT 540 PM EDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED FLOODING ALONG HESPERDIES
STREET AND LAMBRIGHT STREET IN TAMPA. VEHICLES HAVE BEEN REPORTED
STUCK IN THE WATER WHICH IN SOME AREAS HAS BEEN REPORTED TO BE
WAIST DEEP.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.


In layman's terms, if you are below Rye bridge,and the sireen goes off, grab the children and throw them in the back of the truck, drive them uphill, and you might save your family. That is some of the highest land in S.W. Florida. When they let the flood gates out of the dam, there ain't much warning. Old folk turn your hearing aids up!
Quoting 171. LargoFl:

plant city florida........................................... .................................................. ..


Whoa. I went to PCHS... that's nuts.
187. 7544
Nice blobish with a good spin heading west. To the Bahamas?
This is me folks. Water is raging over here.

FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
805 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR THE LITTLE WEKIVA RIVER IN...
WESTERN SEMINOLE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...


* UNTIL 11 PM EDT.

* AT 755 PM EDT...RESIDENTS ALONG THE LITTLE WEKIVA RIVER...WEST OF
LONGWOOD AND NORTH OF ALTAMONTE SPRINGS...REPORT A SIGNIFICANT RISE
AND FAST FLOWING WATER THIS EVENING. WATER LEVELS ARE ENCROACHING ON
BACK YARDS. SOME ROADS RIGHT ALONG THE RIVER MAY BECOME INUNDATED
WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF WATER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. ONLY TWO FEET OF WATER CAN MAKE MOST VEHICLES BUOYANT.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM EARLIER TODAY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AND WILL
TAPER OFF BY 9 PM. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP ON SATURDAY BUT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MUCH LESS THAN TODAY.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS OCCURRING NOW OR IS IMMINENT.
No end in sight folks.

Very similar to last year..

Quoting LargoFl:
plant city florida........................................... .................................................. ..


Did you mean "Watercity, Florida"? Hehe
18z NAM total precip-up to 84 hours



Quoting 167. Dakster:

LargoFL - Are you under water too?
It rarely floods in Largo, we are actually quite elevated from the rest of the county, now areas like St. Petersburg, Bayshore Blvd. Gulf Blvd. are in the low lying areas so it does not take much to flood them. TS Debby was the first time I had seen flooding in my street.
I like blogs that deal with the weather and not the climate.
Excerpt from the Miami NWS Disco...

GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT NEXT WEEK IN DEVELOPING
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION WITH A STRONG MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES EARLY IN THE
WEEK. THE CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN WILL SUPPRESS THE UPPER RIDGE TO
OUR SOUTH AND THIS WILL PLACE SOUTH FLORIDA IN A WESTERLY STEERING
FLOW FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH PWAT`S RUNNING IN THE 1.75-2"
RANGE. SO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS COULD EXPERIENCE SOME THREAT
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ONCE AGAIN ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
Quoting 189. StormTrackerScott:

No end in sight folks.


Yep, Meteorologist Tom Terry for WKMG-TV in Orlando said another round of heavy rains and storms beginning on Monday.
Quoting LargoFl:
wow i remember a time like that back up in NYC many many years ago..a water main broke and a river was flowing down my street.


I think I know what your talking about. I was staying at my Dad's apartment 64th Street and York. Woke up one morning to a deluge of water flooding from like 55th and York to 70th and York. Gosh that was a long time ago, back in late 90's I think. I couldn't have been older than 12 at the time.

It was 1998 just looked it up.
Over 8" of rain today in Palm Coast now with severe flooding all over Flagler County.



Quoting 194. CycloneOz:

I like blogs that deal with the weather and not the climate.
I like both. :D
Quoting 189. StormTrackerScott:

No end in sight folks.


Yep...And I believe the GFS is underestimating the rain that will fall over the state.
Il est tombé ce matin 50 mm d’eau à Lorient contre 43.5 pour Météo France à Gustavia sur l‘île de St-Barth. Ses fortes pluies ont été apportées par une zone dépressionnaire d’altitude se rapprochant par le nord.
Quoting 188. StormTrackerScott:

This is me folks. Water is raging over here.

FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
805 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR THE LITTLE WEKIVA RIVER IN...
WESTERN SEMINOLE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...


* UNTIL 11 PM EDT.

* AT 755 PM EDT...RESIDENTS ALONG THE LITTLE WEKIVA RIVER...WEST OF
LONGWOOD AND NORTH OF ALTAMONTE SPRINGS...REPORT A SIGNIFICANT RISE
AND FAST FLOWING WATER THIS EVENING. WATER LEVELS ARE ENCROACHING ON
BACK YARDS. SOME ROADS RIGHT ALONG THE RIVER MAY BECOME INUNDATED
WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF WATER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. ONLY TWO FEET OF WATER CAN MAKE MOST VEHICLES BUOYANT.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM EARLIER TODAY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AND WILL
TAPER OFF BY 9 PM. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP ON SATURDAY BUT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MUCH LESS THAN TODAY.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS OCCURRING NOW OR IS IMMINENT.


4.02 inches at my location tonight and still raining. Flooding is occurring all over Tampa.
Quoting 200. hydrus:
Yep...And I believe the GFS is underestimating the rain that will fall over the state.


This is just since Wednesday

Rainfall totals for past 48 hours

Much of Central Florida continues to be drenched with rainfall. The wet weather is expected to continue throughout Friday.


These are the rainfall totals from Wednesday, Sept. 24 through 7:30 a.m. Friday, Sept. 26.
Ormond Beach -- 6.37”
Longwood -- 6.33”
New Smyrna Beach -- 5.58”
Ponce Inlet -- 5”
Chuluota -- 3.91”
Melbourne -- 3.76”
Winter Park -- 3.72”
Orlando -- 3.70”
Edgewater -- 3.25"
Palm Coast and its raining there now

Quoting 201. Tropicsky:

Il est tombé ce matin 50 mm d’eau à Lorient contre 43.5 pour Météo France à Gustavia sur l‘île de St-Barth. Ses fortes pluies ont été apportées par une zone dépressionnaire d’altitude se rapprochant par le nord.



Via the Google machine...

He fell this morning 50 mm of water in Lorient against 43.5 for France Weather in Gustavia on the island of St Barts . Its heavy rains were brought by a low pressure area altitude approaching from the north.
Just 0.07" of rain so far in KDAB. But Monday Night's deluge of 8" makes up for that.
Scott, are they covering this flooding live on local TV?
U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)
4 hrs ·

The USGS California Volcano Observatory has been closely tracking an earthquake swarm in California's Long Valley Caldera, which started yesterday at around 4AM PDT; it poses no immediate hazard. From about 4AM on the September 25th to 11AM on September 26th there have been more than 500 earthquakes of M1.0 and above. The earthquakes themselves are small, brittle-failure (rock breaking) events. The earthquakes do not result from the underground movement of magma. We can distinguish between brittle-failure earthquakes and those resulting from magma movement by the characteristics of the seismic waveforms. Eight of the earthquakes were felt, but this is still rather modest activity compared with the much more energetic swarms occurring in the 1980s and 1990s. This is one of several earthquake swarms that have occurred in the Long Valley Caldera this year.

The USGS California Volcano Observatory will continue to closely track this activity and provide updates as appropriate
It's frustrating to see the flooded Florida areas. When are we going to get some decent heavy rains? 20 - 30 inches will be enough.
Adress to drop: Northern leeward islands (SXM - SBH - AXA) :)
Waiting for our order !
Quoting hurricanes2018:
notting going on in the Atlantic for the next 5 days
Nothing interesting going on in the surface, but for us in Puerto Rico with a huge upper low, and wave interacting, the weather is pretty interesting, to say the least...
No Hurricanes, but Florida is getting more than its share of rain... Sometimes that is worse.
Well, multiple flood warnings up in areas that saw 4-6 inches of rain locally in Central Florida. Some areas have seen 8-12 inches of rain locally in the the past month.

Look at the Tampa afternoon sounding, the PW is 2.34 with near or at saturation through the entire column, it doesn't get much more moist than this. Central Florida is locked into an airmass that is about as moist as you can get:



Its worth noting that there actually wasn't rain at Ruskin during the launch, so its not a rain biased, launch, the atmosphere really is that moist down there even outside of moisture pooling convection zones.

Its no surprising then giving the flooding reports, as many places already that saturated grounds saw several inches today.

Its not over though, this potential will continue into the weekend and may even increase again early next week as a front comes and stalls in the northern gulf which will help to pool even more moisture, and upper disturbances will overspread the gulf coast and Florida.

The good news this will bring us in Tallahassee into the act as well this weekend into early next week for heavy rain potential.

As is always the case with seabreeze thunderstorms, on any given day some areas get hammered while other get nothing. So if you're place didn't get much, it doesn't mean that somehow its not a big deal for others areas. That is simply part of the convection cycle, rising air in some areas and sinking in others. Due to the extremely moist airmass, the rainfall potential is locally even higher though, so when low lying areas with saturated grounds get 2-4 inches of rain in a couple hours, it causes major issues
.
This isn't a synoptic scale forcing type of setup so predicting which areas get drenched is tough, but the potential is high everywhere, its just not every given area gets it.
Quoting 213. Dakster:

No Hurricanes, but Florida is getting more than its share of rain... Sometimes that is worse.
And just imagine if we get an El Nino there will be more rainfall during the winter to add on top. El Nino weather pattern is typically associated with wet winters in Florida.
The USGS California Volcano Observatory has been closely tracking an earthquake swarm in California's Long Valley Caldera, which started yesterday at around 4AM PDT; it poses no immediate hazard. From about 4AM on the September 25th to 11AM on September 26th there have been more than 500 earthquakes of M1.0 and above. The earthquakes themselves are small, brittle-failure (rock breaking) events. The earthquakes do not result from the underground movement of magma. We can distinguish between brittle-failure earthquakes and those resulting from magma movement by the characteristics of the seismic waveforms. Eight of the earthquakes were felt, but this is still rather modest activity compared with the much more energetic swarms occurring in the 1980s and 1990s. This is one of several earthquake swarms that have occurred in the Long Valley Caldera this year.

The USGS California Volcano Observatory will continue to closely track this activity and provide updates as appropriate.
Quoting 215. GTstormChaserCaleb:

And just imagine if we get an El Nino there will be more rainfall during the winter to add on top. El Nino weather pattern is typically associated with wet winters in Florida.


It is either feast or famine with rain lately. One of the reasons I really wish they would have strengthened the dikes around lake O. So that it could hold a lot more water. That way in the "drought" it is isn't as serious as quickly.
Quoting 200. hydrus:

Yep...And I believe the GFS is underestimating the rain that will fall over the state.



You're right, the GFS has some weird issue with Florida when it comes to convection moving in off the gulf, or from any ocean to land, it sometimes produces an unrealistic lack of rain bias. Some areas in Florida will get more rain tomorrow than it has through that whole forecast period. But like I said its some sort of feedback issue, sometimes it thinks the land is too stable for rain, I think sometimes it misinterprets the land ocean boundary as mountainous terrain and shows sinking air along the coast.

I don't know if that;s why for sure, but it does do that a lot, forecasters learn to discount these odd biases. The GFS has a lot more quirky biases than the ECMWF, hopefully more of those issues will be corrected with time.
Quoting 214. Jedkins01:

Well, multiple flood warnings up in areas that saw 4-6 inches of rain locally in Central Florida. Some areas have seen 8-12 inches of rain locally in the the past month.

Look at the Tampa afternoon sounding, the PW is 2.34 with near or at saturation through the entire column, it doesn't get much more moist than this. Central Florida is locked into an airmass that is about as moist as you can get:



Its worth noting that there actually wasn't rain at Ruskin during the launch, so its not a rain biased, launch, the atmosphere really is that moist down there even outside of moisture pooling convection zones.

Its no surprising then giving the flooding reports, as many places already that saturated grounds saw several inches today.

Its not over though, this potential will continue into the weekend and may even increase again early next week as a front comes and stalls in the northern gulf which will help to pool even more moisture, and upper disturbances will overspread the gulf coast and Florida.

The good news this will bring us in Tallahassee into the act as well this weekend into early next week for heavy rain potential.

As is always the case with seabreeze thunderstorms, on any given day some areas get hammered while other get nothing. So if you're place didn't get much, it doesn't mean that somehow its not a big deal for others areas. That is simply part of the convection cycle, rising air in some areas and sinking in others. Due to the extremely moist airmass, the rainfall potential is locally even higher though, so when low lying areas with saturated grounds get 2-4 inches of rain in a couple hours, it causes major issues
.
This isn't a synoptic scale forcing type of setup so predicting which areas get drenched is tough, but the potential is high everywhere, its just not every given area gets it.



There actually was rain at Ruskin when the balloon was launched. If you look at composite reflectivity at 7:19PM there were dbz values at Ruskin. The sounding is a little biased because it was launched into a cloud. Don't get me wrong, the atmosphere is plenty moist but in order to get a true representation of PWAT it needs to be measured outside of a cloud.
Quoting 193. GTstormChaserCaleb:

It rarely floods in Largo, we are actually quite elevated from the rest of the county, now areas like St. Petersburg, Bayshore Blvd. Gulf Blvd. are in the low lying areas so it does not take much to flood them. TS Debby was the first time I had seen flooding in my street.


Yep you're right. The thing about most of Central and South Florida is that there isn't visibly a noticeable difference visually in elevation change in most areas over shorter distances, but there is elevation gradually. Lower elevations in rural areas are naturally swamps and marshes, but as these area get developed, there doesn't appear to be a difference to see which areas would flood and which ones don't However, urbanized areas that used to be wetlands still get flooded during heavy rain events especially with saturated grounds.

However,, outside of these areas, its tough to get flooding due to the porous limestone rock beneath the first level under most of Florida, and because most of Florida has very sandy soil that isn't drastically different than beach sand, its more efficient and draining water than northern or western soils.

It won't stop naturally low areas from flooding though where runoff pools. Overall though flash flood guidance in most of Florida is higher than most places in the country, its hard to get property damaging rainfall in Florida because of this. With that said, when we see this amount of flooding in Central Florida, its serious amounts of rain in a short time.
Quoting 219. boltdwright:



There actually was rain at Ruskin when the balloon was launched. If you look at composite reflectivity at 7:19PM there were dbz values at Ruskin. The sounding is a little biased because it was launched into a cloud. Don't get me wrong, the atmosphere is plenty moist but in order to get a true representation of PWAT it needs to be measured outside of a cloud.


Hah, you're right, thanks for correcting me, I forgot to convert to UTC when comparing the radar to the launch, duhhhhhh... sigh, lol

The morning PW still came in at 2.23 with near saturation up through the mid levels though and no drying until about 300 mb which is insignificant on convection as that level of atmosphere hold very little moisture anyway due to its cold temp. Its the surface to 500 mb level that is an indication of how moist the air is and the rainfall potential. Saturation in the upper levels(300-200 mb) can actually be counter-productive because it produces high clouds which can limit convection and instability.
Quoting 188. StormTrackerScott:

This is me folks. Water is raging over here.

FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
805 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR THE LITTLE WEKIVA RIVER IN...
WESTERN SEMINOLE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...


* UNTIL 11 PM EDT.

* AT 755 PM EDT...RESIDENTS ALONG THE LITTLE WEKIVA RIVER...WEST OF
LONGWOOD AND NORTH OF ALTAMONTE SPRINGS...REPORT A SIGNIFICANT RISE
AND FAST FLOWING WATER THIS EVENING. WATER LEVELS ARE ENCROACHING ON
BACK YARDS. SOME ROADS RIGHT ALONG THE RIVER MAY BECOME INUNDATED
WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF WATER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. ONLY TWO FEET OF WATER CAN MAKE MOST VEHICLES BUOYANT.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM EARLIER TODAY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AND WILL
TAPER OFF BY 9 PM. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP ON SATURDAY BUT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MUCH LESS THAN TODAY.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS OCCURRING NOW OR IS IMMINENT.



I think some folks are enjoying a feast of crow fit for a king :)
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
913 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

.VERY HEAVY RAINFALL HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. THIS HEAVY
RAIN HAS RESULTED IN SATURATED GROUNDS ALONG WITH ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS ON AREA PONDS...LAKES...STREAMS AND RIVERS. LOCALIZED FLOODING
OF ROADWAYS AND HIGHWAYS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL THAT FALLS ON SATURDAY. THE AREAS OF MOST CONCERN EXTENDS
FROM FORT MEADE TO FROSTPROOF...DOWN TO SEBRING...ARCHBOLD...AND
OVER TO WAUCHULA...AS WELL AS FROM NORTH PORT TO BRADENTON AND
FROM FORT LONESOME NORTHWEST TO THE TOWN N COUNTY AREA AND EAST TO
PLANT CITY.


FLZ050-061-149-151-155-160-249-251-255-260-271400 -
/O.NEW.KTBW.FA.A.0003.140927T0113Z-140928T0100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
PINELLAS-DESOTO-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-
COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-INLAND PASCO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-
INLAND MANATEE-INLAND SARASOTA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLEARWATER...ST. PETERSBURG...ARCADIA...
PORT RICHEY...HUDSON...TAMPA...APOLLO BEACH...WESTCHASE...
BRADENTON...ANNA MARIA ISLAND...VENICE...SARASOTA...ENGLEWOOD...
DADE CITY...ZEPHYRHILLS...BRANDON...PLANT CITY...
SUN CITY CENTER...PARRISH...LAKEWOOD RANCH...MYAKKA CITY...
NORTH PORT
913 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING AREAS...COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH...COASTAL MANATEE...
COASTAL PASCO...COASTAL SARASOTA...DESOTO...INLAND
HILLSBOROUGH...INLAND MANATEE...INLAND PASCO...INLAND SARASOTA
AND PINELLAS.

* THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING

* SATURATED GROUNDS WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY.

* ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS MAY BECOME QUICKLY FLOODED WITH ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. REMEMBER...DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE YOUR
VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. RESIDENTS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD TAKE
ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY.

&&

$$
Quoting 221. Jedkins01:



Hah, you're right, thanks for correcting me, I forgot to convert to UTC when comparing the radar to the launch, duhhhhhh... sigh, lol

The morning PW still came in at 2.23 with near saturation up through the mid levels though and no drying until about 300 mb which is insignificant on convection as that level of atmosphere hold very little moisture anyway due to its cold temp. Its the surface to 500 mb level that is an indication of how moist the air is and the rainfall potential. Saturation in the upper levels(300-200 mb) can actually be counter-productive because it produces high clouds which can limit convection and instability.


Yep, we see that all the time in Tallahassee. In fact, many times this summer we had PWATS plenty high for convection but instability over gulf coast regions (combined with abnormally large upper level southerly flow) led to offshore convection limiting heating for afternoon storms. It was a weird summer as we had our driest summer on record for Tallahassee. Only receiving about 8.9 inches of rain.
Quoting 220. Jedkins01:



Yep you're right. The thing about most of Central and South Florida is that there isn't visibly a noticeable difference visually in elevation change in most areas over shorter distances, but there is elevation gradually. Lower elevations in rural areas are naturally swamps and marshes, but as these area get developed, there doesn't appear to be a difference to see which areas would flood and which ones don't However, urbanized areas that used to be wetlands still get flooded during heavy rain events especially with saturated grounds.

However,, outside of these areas, its tough to get flooding due to the porous limestone rock beneath the first level under most of Florida, and because most of Florida has very sandy soil that isn't drastically different than beach sand, its more efficient and draining water than northern or western soils.

It won't stop naturally low areas from flooding though where runoff pools. Overall though flash flood guidance in most of Florida is higher than most places in the country, its hard to get property damaging rainfall in Florida because of this. With that said, when you hear about magnitude of flooding in Central Florida, its serious amounts of rain in a short time.



At 345 feet (105 m) above mean sea level, Britton Hill in northern Walton County is the highest point in Florida and the lowest highpoint of any U.S. state.[2] Much of the state south of Orlando is low-lying and fairly level; however, some places, such as Clearwater, feature vistas that rise 50 to 100 feet (15 to 30 m) above the water. Much of Central and North Florida, typically 25 miles (40 km) or more away from the coastline, features rolling hills with elevations ranging from 100 to 250 feet (30 to 76 m). The highest point in peninsular Florida, Sugarloaf Mountain, is a 312-foot (95 m) peak in Lake County.[3] Much of Florida has an elevation of less than 12 feet (3.7 m), including many populated areas such as Miami which are located on the coast.

This is a topographic map done by FIU using an Airborne Laser:



This one is based on climatology of 100-year flood events:



And this one is a simulation of the storm surge from a Cat. 4 Hurricane:

Quoting 224. boltdwright:



Yep, we see that all the time in Tallahassee. In fact, many times this summer we had PWATS plenty high for convection but instability over gulf coast regions (combined with abnormally large upper level southerly flow) led to offshore convection limiting heating for afternoon storms. It was a weird summer as we had our driest summer on record for Tallahassee. Only receiving about 8.9 inches of rain.


Yeah thankfully the Spring and winter was wet in Tallahassee, otherwise it would be a pretty substantial drought. Even this month which was in a wet pattern for the first couple weeks didn't turn out to be as wet in Tallahassee as in other surrounding areas. Since I've been back in school, I installed a rain gauge at my apartment which is about 1 mile east of downtown. We've only had 3.57 so far despite many days with heavy rain, in the first half of the month, we had one real good soaker day where we had 2.11 here on the 8th of this month.

It seems like this area has just been super unlucky this summer, since I've been here a a large amount of convection has broken up or changed directions around Tallahassee. I remember one day earlier this month where there was literally around 2-3 inches of rain that fell around the entire path of Capital circle, but in town rainfall was only around 0.25 (what I had).
Over 12" and counting in Flagler County so far today.

Quoting 219. boltdwright:



There actually was rain at Ruskin when the balloon was launched. If you look at composite reflectivity at 7:19PM there were dbz values at Ruskin. The sounding is a little biased because it was launched into a cloud. Don't get me wrong, the atmosphere is plenty moist but in order to get a true representation of PWAT it needs to be measured outside of a cloud.
Even though the KLYSTRON is possibly the most powerful, obnoxious radar on Earth, we do not use it as a Tampa area reference. It screens the entire area of the original Manatee County, and beyond. Pretty darn good though. In conclusion, it is a most useful tool. They must turn it down to generator/ battery level when giving in town forecasts, I suppose. Hard to launch a balloon without hitting a cloud lately.
00z NAM running now..total precip up to 24 hours

Quoting 227. StormTrackerScott:

Over 12" and counting in Flagler County so far today.


They poo pooed you for a forecast, and then said others said the same thing. Hard to be brave sometimes.
Quoting 229. ncstorm:

00z NAM running now..total precip up to 24 hours


Thanks for keeping us up to date on the NAM precip. totals, ncstorm. Hopefully, you all in NC have caught a break, I know you all have been waterlogged this summer.
Quoting ncstorm:
00z NAM running now..total precip up to 24 hours



Looking surprisingly dry for Southeast Florida. I hope that also means lots of sun! It's been cloudy everyday here in Deerfield Beach for the past 2 weeks.
Quoting 229. ncstorm:
00z NAM running now..total precip up to 24 hours



Good evening friend.
GT its the only model running now so I figure I would post it..

33 hours


Quoting 211. zicoille:

It's frustrating to see the flooded Florida areas. When are we going to get some decent heavy rains? 20 - 30 inches will be enough.
Adress to drop: Northern leeward islands (SXM - SBH - AXA) :)
Waiting for our order !


Lol

A weather station in Devet reported 4 inches (99.3mm) this morning. This is quite decent!

More rain could fall later tonight.. when we approach DMAX.

Today's report

Today's report 2
1 hr. totals and that cell is just sitting there or backbuilding.


48 hours

Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
1 hr. totals and that cell is just sitting there or backbuilding.



Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
1 hr. totals and that cell is just sitting there or backbuilding.




That little red dot is like 1 mile diameter you think? Trying to estimate the sq miles that saw such copious amounts of rain.
Cricket Chirps: Nature's Thermometer
So, I'm getting 8 chirps for every 3 seconds, that's as good as I can do + or - 0.25 seconds. So in 14 seconds that's 14/3 * 8 = 37.3 + 40 = 77.3.
I checked the current reading by the thermometer and it's 75. And it's a beautiful night I might add.
To convert cricket chirps to degrees Fahrenheit, count number of chirps in 14 seconds then add 40 to get temperature.

Example: 30 chirps + 40 = 70° F

To convert cricket chirps to degrees Celsius, count number of chirps in 25 seconds, divide by 3, then add 4 to get temperature.

Example: 48 chirps /(divided by) 3 + 4 = 20° C
57 hours
Quoting 238. yankees440:




That little red dot is like 1 mile diameter you think? Trying to estimate the sq miles that saw such copious amounts of rain.
I think each square pixel is 1 sq. mile.
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
I think each square pixel is 1 sq. mile.


Thanks!
Quoting 236. GTstormChaserCaleb:

1 hr. totals and that cell is just sitting there or backbuilding.



Good for the Shrimp, Crabs, and Fry. Even better for the oysters, even though I don't eat them. With a better oyster hatch it cleans the water in dry times. That is all bivalves do, filter water of pollutants and bacteria. Natures clean up crew.
Quoting 242. yankees440:



Thanks!
You can read more on the NEXRAD resolutions here and how it has progressed throughout the years.

Link
Quoting 243. Pallis1:

Good for the Shrimp, Crabs, and Fry. Even better for the oysters, even though I don't eat them. With a better oyster hatch it cleans the water in dry times. That is all bivalves do, filter water of pollutants and bacteria. Natures clean up crew.
Ah dude you are missing out, Oysters are so good with a squeeze of lemon and some cocktail sauce they hit the spot.
total precip up to 84 hours..night all..

Measurements are nearing 7" in parts of Palm Coast. Incredible rainfall, and it's still going pretty strong.
248. flsky
In a non-drought year (if it's a good year) October thru March.
Quoting 159. bwtranch:


What's the typical time for rains to start falling in Southern Cal? I know I could look it up, but I like asking people who live fairly close. I do understand that you are not in that climate zone yourself. Thanks.

Quoting 239. bwtranch:

Cricket Chirps: Nature's Thermometer
So, I'm getting 8 chirps for every 3 seconds, that's as good as I can do + or - 0.25 seconds. So in 14 seconds that's 14/3 * 8 = 37.3 + 40 = 77.3.
I checked the current reading by the thermometer and it's 75. And it's a beautiful night I might add.
To convert cricket chirps to degrees Fahrenheit, count number of chirps in 14 seconds then add 40 to get temperature.

Example: 30 chirps + 40 = 70° F

To convert cricket chirps to degrees Celsius, count number of chirps in 25 seconds, divide by 3, then add 4 to get temperature.

Example: 48 chirps /(divided by) 3 + 4 = 20° C
Can you do pine beetles and Cicadas?

Nearly 700 earthquakes recorded in last 24 hrs near Mammoth Lakes, CA, but no immediate hazard
@BuzzFeedStorm

Nearly 700... Geez
Good evening all! How's everyone doing?
Quoting nigel20:
Good evening all! How's everyone doing?


We're starving for hurricanes, you?
Quoting Doppler22:

Nearly 700 earthquakes recorded in last 24 hrs near Mammoth Lakes, CA, but no immediate hazard
@BuzzFeedStorm

Nearly 700... Geez


Hi Logan! Volcanic in origin?
Dennis Phillips nailed our forecast today. Interesting that Tampa Intl got only .24. Expecting another big round tomorrow. Thinks the storms will be just a little bit later. We dry out on Wednesday.
1003 since this date

M 0.3 - 1km SE of Mammoth Lakes, California
Time
2014-09-20 01:21:35 UTC-07:00
Location
37.637N 118.955W
Depth
8.1km

my goodness...lots of baby fault lines
Quoting CybrTeddy:


We're starving for hurricanes, you?


The western Caribbean, maybe is our last chance of such. I'm fine, we had an impressive thunderstorm today, with copious lightning.

Interesting low pressure circulation just NW of PR along the Tropical Wave. Check out the loop when you get a chance.
Quoting HurriHistory:

Interesting low pressure circulation just NW of PR along the Tropical Wave. Check out the loop when you get a chance.
Quoting HurriHistory:

Interesting low pressure circulation just NW of PR along the Tropical Wave. Check out the loop when you get a chance.
Quoting HurriHistory:

Interesting low pressure circulation just NW of PR along the Tropical Wave. Check out the loop when you get a chance.


It's a TUTT low, severe weather is in the forecast for that area.

Here's The weather prediction center's forecast:

THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE
TUTT LOW TO SLOWLY MOVE OVER PUERTO RICO DURING THE DAY.
MEANWHILE...THIS IS TO FOCUS SHORT WAVE ENERGY/CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
THE LOW MEANDERS WEST ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE TO EASTERN
HISPANIOLA...WITH TROUGH TO THEN LIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTH AS A
CELL OF THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. BEST MID LEVEL FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MIDDAY ON SATURDAY. AT LOW LEVELS...A TUTT INDUCED
PERTURBATION IN THE EASTERLY TRADES SUSTAINS A MOIST SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT
ACROSS HISPANIOLA-PUERTO RICO-NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES TO PEAK
AROUND 50MM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FURTHERMORE...SST
ANALYSIS SHOWS WARM SEA SURFACE ANOMALIES OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN.
AS THIS COMBINES WITH COLD CORE TROUGH ALOFT AND MODERATE WIND
SHEAR...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR GENERATION OF
STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE CONVECTION. SMALL HAIL AND WATER SPOUTS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY TODAY. ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD-VIRGIN ISLES EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM...WHILE ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO EASTERN HISPANIOLA
EXPECT ACCUMULATION OF 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-125MM/DAY.

Quoting 252. CybrTeddy:



We're starving for hurricanes, you?
Where were you during the origin of the planets according to Patrap and me?
Quoting 257. HurriHistory:


Interesting low pressure circulation just NW of PR along the Tropical Wave. Check out the loop when you get a chance.
Big fan HH, and thank you for your contributions to the site. Priceless in my opinion. I am watching the GOM right now. I saw that earlier. Maybe it's nothing, maybe something. Much needed rain for those outlying coconut heads. We will see.
261. 882MB
Good evening, small earthquake just a few miles offshore Rincon, PR 3.4 at 7:37pm. Local meteorologist said a lot of people felt it in the northwestern sections, some people said it sounded like an explosion, there was a smaller one 2.7 just 30 minutes later about 5 or 7 miles from the first one.
Quoting 251. nigel20:

Good evening all! How's everyone doing?
G'night Nigel. ZZZZZZZZZZZ
Quoting Pallis1:
G'night Nigel. ZZZZZZZZZZZ


Same to you, Pallis!
SOMETHING IN THE OFFING: During the early hours of Sept. 26th, something exploded behind the southeastern edge of the solar disk. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory photographed a massive plume of debris rising over the sun's limb. As the inset shows, the plasma-plume was big enough to swallow dozens of planets Earth. In this case, however, Earth was not in the line of fire. The ejecta will completely miss our planet.

X-rays from the eruption registered C8 on the Richter Scale of Solar Flares. The actual intensity must have been much higher, though, because the flare was eclipsed by the edge of the sun. The underlying active region might be potent.

In a few days, the blast site will emerge into view as the sun's rotation turns it toward Earth. Then we will be able to evaluate its potential for future eruptions, increasingly geoeffective as the sun slowly spins on its axis.
4 million gallons of partially treated sewage was released into Turkey Creek in Palm Bay, FL due to the rains. People are being told to stay out of Turkey Creek. That is the only place around where you can find a little class 2 water during decent rain events. It's sort of a kayak hot spot in this weather. They are awaiting test results.

Drove through a down pour a bit ago. Driving sheets of rain, pretty windy.. 0.72" here.
Quoting 265. Skyepony:

4 million gallons of partially treated sewage was released into Turkey Creek in Palm Bay, FL due to the rains. People are being told to stay out of Turkey Creek. That is the only place around where you can find a little class 2 water during decent rain events. It's sort of a kayak hot spot in this weather. They are awaiting test results.

Drove through a down pour a bit ago. Driving sheets of rain, pretty windy.. 0.72" here.
Do you know about the Cancer Cluster in Loxahatchee? Apparently, the well water is contaminated with toxins from radioactive waste.

Cancer Cluster In Florida Worries Parents

Lawsuit blames South Florida companies, Pratt Whitney and Palm Beach Aggregates, for cancer cases
Local Storm Report
09/27/2014 1200 am

2 miles W of Palm Coast, Flagler County.

Heavy rain m9.68 inch, reported by public.

Rainfall report from weather underground site in The Indian Trails community of west Palm Coast recorded a 24 hour rainfall total of 9.68 inches for Friday September 26th.

09/27/2014 1200 am

1 miles WNW of Palm Coast, Flagler County.

Heavy rain m7.52 inch, reported by mesonet.

A citizen weather station in Palm Coast recorded a 24 hour rainfall total of 7.52 inches for Friday September 26th.
Palm Coast Flooding



Caleb~ There was a cluster around Patrick AFB here. Even worse radioactive FL doom out there tonight..

Newly released Fukushima data..
Newly released data shows Florida hit with highest level of radioactive material from Fukushima measured anywhere in world outside Japan — #1 out of more than 1,500 test results — Total radioactive iodine was up to 500% of amount reported
270. vis0
Thought i posted these here but guess i forgot.
CREDIT::NOAA presented through Aviation.gov




CREDIT::NOAA presented through HawaiiUniv.



i need a nap. zzzzzzzzzzzz
Quoting 254. luvtogolf:

Dennis Phillips nailed our forecast today. Interesting that Tampa Intl got only .24. Expecting another big round tomorrow. Thinks the storms will be just a little bit later. We dry out on Wednesday.

I saw that this morning as well. I don't know how it's possible the airport received only 0.24. Seems like it could be an error. 4.02 inches at my house last night, and I'm about a 15 minute drive north of the airport.
NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNDAY AS THESE FEATURES APPROACH
OUR REGION. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
MAINLY ALONG COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS DEEP
MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE REGION.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL IMPACT MUCH OF OUR AREA...PARTICULARLY
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THIS WEEKEND...WHILE AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF
DOUBLE THESE AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WHERE HEAVY RAINS
REPEATEDLY MOVE ACROSS THE SAME LOCATIONS
Good morning.

I see that GFS in the past few runs has a SW Caribbean development but is at long range. That area is favored normally in October so maybe this time GFS is right?
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E ATLANTIC FROM 9N19W TO 16N19W MOVING
W AT 20 TO 25 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE S OF 15N. DRY SAHARAN AIR IS NOTED N OF 15N. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 19W AND 25W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 12N69W TO 22N68W AND
CROSSING THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KT. THE
WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND IS PRODUCING A
LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 12N TO 22N
BETWEEN 64W AND 76W. THE WAVE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
TODAY AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SUNDAY. THE UPPER-LOW IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR PUERTO RICO AND THE UK/US VIRGIN ISLANDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE VERY UNSTABLE WITH
THE POTENTIAL OF MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N91W TO 22N91W AND OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF
17N BETWEEN 90W AND 94W.
Quoting 217. Dakster:



It is either feast or famine with rain lately. One of the reasons I really wish they would have strengthened the dikes around lake O. So that it could hold a lot more water. That way in the "drought" it is isn't as serious as quickly.


That is not the solution Dak. The solution is a flow way south to clean up the polluted water and send it into the Florida Everglades. Water can, and does enter the lake six times greater in volume than it can be currently discharged. That great volume of polluted water is too polluted to legally send it into the glades. SOOO, they send it east and west out MANMADE, connections to protect ag. ALL water management in Florida defaults to corrupt subsidized corporate polluters, NOT the citizens, their health, or economic well being. The elected representation of the citizens in the State of Florida is CORRUPT. Now, sugar is trying to rezone 76 square miles of land southwest of the lake for residence, airport and petroleum tank farm. This ploy is to RAISE the apparent value of the land that is needed to create a flow way south. They are about to GOUGE the citizens for millions of MORE dollars.

There will be two simultaneous Rally's in protest of this proposed project Wednesday October 1st. One in Ft. Myers, the other, which I am a part of, and will be speaking at, is in Ft. Pierce. Because of these unnatural polluted discharges we lost the ENTIRE 2013 summer.. Water in the most diverse estuary in all of North America was too polluted to touch. Now, we are getting a repeat of the dangers THIS year too. Bacterial levels are to high to touch the water, or eat the fish.. which is VERY import for those poor folks that have to supplement protein on the supper table with fish. This is a matter of State water policy. What WE have to do, is create the political will to CHANGE the policy to ENFORCE the Florida Constitution and protect the CITIZENS, and OUR natural treasures, instead of the profit lines of corporate polluters calling themselves "farmers" Just look at the sugar sponsored"hunting" trips in Texas for our Governor, Director of the FDEP, the incoming Senate majority leader, incoming House Majority leaders.. just WHO is being represented? Why special interests of course. /RANT, thank you

If you might be interested in joining us, please WU mail me, or visit Florida Slime crimes FB page

Thank you, Marty Baum, your Indian Riverkeeper.. DEMAND CLEAN WATER
New EPAC development very soon.

An area of low pressure is expected to form south of the coast of
southeastern Mexico later this weekend or early next week.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some
gradual development of this low while it moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
Quoting 243. Pallis1:

Good for the Shrimp, Crabs, and Fry. Even better for the oysters, even though I don't eat them. With a better oyster hatch it cleans the water in dry times. That is all bivalves do, filter water of pollutants and bacteria. Natures clean up crew.


no, not necessarily. We have lost more than 50 square miles of seagrass meadows in the northern lagoons that has now exposed the sediment to wave action. SO, not only is all that polluted storm water reaching our lagoon untreated, added to that is all the"legend" pollution that wind can now bring back into the water column.
Quoting 268. Skyepony:

Palm Coast Flooding



Caleb~ There was a cluster around Patrick AFB here. Even worse radioactive FL doom out there tonight..

Newly released Fukushima data..
Newly released data shows Florida hit with highest level of radioactive material from Fukushima measured anywhere in world outside Japan %u2014 #1 out of more than 1,500 test results %u2014 Total radioactive iodine was up to 500% of amount reported


Thanks for the info on the radiation Skye, I just posted it up... didja know that 4 million gallons of sewage was discharged into Turkey Creek because of rain... Turkey Creek

EDIT, Just saw your post on this Skye.. Thanks!
Flag football this morning, the heat of Summer is a distant memory, but the hellish cold, like the game I had to watch last November in weather below 50ºF with a stiff breeze is still a few weeks away.

72ºF with a comfortably dry 65ºF dewpoint.

This is Texas' Chamber of Commerce season, if only it lasted more than a month each Spring and Fall.


I think I'd wear thermal underwear and multiple hoodies and learn to enjoy flag football in the snow, but the season ends around Thanksgiving.

Quoting 279. indianrivguy:



no, not necessarily. We have lost more than 50 square miles of seagrass meadows in the northern lagoons that has now exposed the sediment to wave action. SO, not only is all that polluted storm water reaching our lagoon untreated, added to that is all the"legend" pollution that wind can now bring back into the water column.


Hi IRGuy-
It is so essential to divert septic seepage into the lagoon from coastal communities. hybryd septic/sewage systems must be introduced first to subdivided communities then to all other residences. This is one of the many reasons why the lagoon is dying. I see the afordability factor as a negative for many residences.
At this point, Hour 384 GFS Caribbean storms are all we have, at least until maybe we get lucky with another East Pac storm crossing Mexico and raining IMBY, so no more pointing out how unlikely any off hour GFS run verifying will be.


Plus, at 5 storms, we need Fay, so we match 1986 as most boring season in last 28 years, if we stay at 5 storms, we have to go back to 1983 and 4 named storms and say it is the most boring hurricane season since 1983.

1983 did destroy a complete Houston area subdivision which was never rebuilt. Although is it the storm, or people pumping fresh water from beneath a bay side community and making the community settle and become vulnerable to a low end Cat 3 storm?

The Brownwood subdivision was abandoned, and is now the Baytown Nature Center, so except for the people in the 300 flooded homes never rebuilt, it is a net positive.

Hi all.

Rain! Pouring out there now.

I hit the sack around 9:30 last night, saw this morning housemate who was out pinged me with "rain! Like, Washington state kind of rain!" around 10:30pm.

Can't wait to see the desert in a few days. And maybe I'll get a late season harvest of the salsa veggies I planted. Oh and snow in higher elevations on the Sierras.
Quoting 282. rmbjoe1954:



Hi IRGuy-
It is so essential to divert septic seepage into the lagoon from coastal communities. hybryd septic/sewage systems must be introduced first to subdivided communities then to all other residences. This is one of the many reasons why the lagoon is dying. I see the afordability factor as a negative for many residences.


Mornin' Joe.. There are some hybrid projects in the works for the barrier island in Indian River County.. the problem outside of expense, is the obstruction by industry at the state level. The State rescinded home rule on septic systems testing 2009. We have been fighting back since then. The State fights to deny the problem is polluted agricultural and residential storm water. They blame septic tank systems, then they fight to prevent inspections and upgrades to newly developed systems to obfuscate the issue so they can continue polluting without consequence.. to protect those all import profit lines.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 271145
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.



Tropical Storm RACHEL
Quoting 274. Tropicsweatherpr:

Good morning.

I see that GFS in the past few runs has a SW Caribbean development but is at long range. That area is favored normally in October so maybe this time GFS is right?
We'll see..the GFS has been playing tricks all season long.
Palm Coast is getting more rain this morning, around 0.5" so far adding on to the totals from yesterday.
Quoting Pallis1:
Where were you during the origin of the planets according to Patrap and me?


Dunno, ask Grothar. He was there. :P
Happy Birthday

Quoting ncstorm:
total precip up to 84 hours..night all..

Ive been following those guys at weatherbell and ill tell you not always rite but better than the rest
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. A semi cool morning of 67 degrees in my part of Louisiana.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: creamed chipped beef or sausage gravy over biscuits, bagels with cream cheese and jelly or lox, cinnamon streusel coffee cake, broiled boudin or sausage patties, berry breakfast pizza, fried eggs, pancakes or Belgian waffles with maple or strawberry syrup, cinnamon rolls, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Tea, regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side.
Quoting 224. boltdwright:



Yep, we see that all the time in Tallahassee. In fact, many times this summer we had PWATS plenty high for convection but instability over gulf coast regions (combined with abnormally large upper level southerly flow) led to offshore convection limiting heating for afternoon storms. It was a weird summer as we had our driest summer on record for Tallahassee. Only receiving about 8.9 inches of rain.
Out here to the west of you on the coast we are set to get a healthy 3 inches over the next 48 hrs.. nothing extreme just a good soaking for the plants... We'll see how that forecast verifies..
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. A semi cool morning of 67 degrees in my part of Louisiana.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: creamed chipped beef or sausage gravy over biscuits, bagels with cream cheese and jelly or lox, cinnamon streusel coffee cake, broiled boudin or sausage patties, berry breakfast pizza, fried eggs, pancakes or Belgian waffles with maple or strawberry syrup, cinnamon rolls, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Tea, regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side.

I haven't cooked that much breakfast in my entire life, much less in one morning!
Quoting 275. ncstorm:


So that little green circle drawn around my house means???
Quoting 293. aislinnpaps:

Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. A semi cool morning of 67 degrees in my part of Louisiana.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: creamed chipped beef or sausage gravy over biscuits, bagels with cream cheese and jelly or lox, cinnamon streusel coffee cake, broiled boudin or sausage patties, berry breakfast pizza, fried eggs, pancakes or Belgian waffles with maple or strawberry syrup, cinnamon rolls, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Tea, regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side.
All that's missing... is your ADDRESS! :)
Woke up to find this:

_________________________________________________

Coastal Okaloosa Severe Watches & Warnings
Special Statement
Statement as of 5:45 AM CDT on September 27, 2014
...Locally heavy rainfall expected to impact the region tonight and Sunday...

A trough of low pressure located over the east central Gulf of Mexico early this morning is expected to move toward the central Gulf Coast region today as an upper level disturbance meanwhile approaches from the northwestern Gulf. Deep moisture will be drawn northward into southeast Mississippi...southwest and south central Alabama and the northwest Florida Panhandle through Sunday as these features approach our region. Showers and a few thunderstorms will increase in coverage mainly along coastal portions of the area later this afternoon. Numerous to widespread showers and a few embedded thunderstorms are expected to impact most locations tonight into Sunday as deep moisture overspreads the region.

Locally heavy rainfall will impact much of our area...particularly tonight through late Sunday. Total rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible over inland portions of southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama this weekend...while amounts between 2 and 4 inches are possible closer to the coast. Localized rainfall totals of double these amounts will be possible...especially where heavy rains repeatedly move across the same locations. Locally heavy rains could lead to localized flooding or flash flooding in urban areas...creeks and streams and other low lying areas. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts from the National Weather Service in Mobile for updates regarding this developing weather situation.
Quoting 295. hydrus:



Really hope this doesn't turn out to be a non event: not only cause of the disappointment, but we really need the rain. It's happened before with a big event forecasted like this on the day-of, all the rain stays out over the Gulf instead.
Quoting 302. opal92nwf:
What is this?
Quoting 265. Skyepony:

4 million gallons of partially treated sewage was released into Turkey Creek in Palm Bay, FL due to the rains. People are being told to stay out of Turkey Creek. That is the only place around where you can find a little class 2 water during decent rain events. It's sort of a kayak hot spot in this weather. They are awaiting test results.

Drove through a down pour a bit ago. Driving sheets of rain, pretty windy.. 0.72" here.


Surely the Florida Alps has more than just a class 2!
They must be 300' high!
Quoting tampabaymatt:

4.02 inches at my location tonight and still raining. Flooding is occurring all over Tampa.

here's the theme song
Link
Quoting JNFlori30A:
So that little green circle drawn around my house means???


Slight chance of excessive or heavy rainfall.
Quoting 303. gulfbreeze:

What is this?

Shows the part of AL/FL with special advisory for heavy rainfall.
Modals are starting to hone in on Florida's first taste of Fall next weekend into the following week!
Quoting 268. Skyepony:

Palm Coast Flooding



Caleb~ There was a cluster around Patrick AFB here. Even worse radioactive FL doom out there tonight..

Newly released Fukushima data..
Newly released data shows Florida hit with highest level of radioactive material from Fukushima measured anywhere in world outside Japan — #1 out of more than 1,500 test results — Total radioactive iodine was up to 500% of amount reported


The normal background I131 is practically zero. Therefore, any increase in concentration is going to result in a very large percentage increase. I131 is a man-made isotope and has an extremely short half-life (8 days). It doesn't stick around very long.

From the article, the detected radiation was 30,591 mBq/m^3, or approximately 31 Bq/m^3. To put that in perspective:

1 tbsp salt substitute (Potassium) = 527 Bq
1 banana = 20 Bq
1 human adult 100 Bq/kg x 70 kg = 7,000 Bq
1 kg of coffee = 1,000 Bq
1 kg superphosphate fertilizer = 5,000 Bq
1 household smoke detector (with americium) = 30,000 Bq
1 kg of coal ash = 2,000 Bq
1 kg of granite (as in kitchen counter tops) = 1,000 Bq
Quoting 293. aislinnpaps:

Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. A semi cool morning of 67 degrees in my part of Louisiana.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: creamed chipped beef or sausage gravy over biscuits, bagels with cream cheese and jelly or lox, cinnamon streusel coffee cake, broiled boudin or sausage patties, berry breakfast pizza, fried eggs, pancakes or Belgian waffles with maple or strawberry syrup, cinnamon rolls, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Tea, regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side.


No Bacon? Smh...
Link
Quoting 307. opal92nwf:

Shows the part of AL/FL with special advisory for heavy rainfall.
Thanks
Quoting Webberweather53:


No Bacon? Smh...
Link


Never a party without bacon!
Quoting weatherbro:
Modals are starting to hone in on Florida's first taste of Fall next weekend into the following week!


Seeing clear and crisp weather on the GFS from October 6-9, just in time for the total lunar eclipse on October 8. Really hope it holds.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Mount Ontake Volcano Eruption In Japan Ontakesan 27/09/2014 | RAW VIDEO

Quoting 309. Xyrus2000:



The normal background I131 is practically zero. Therefore, any increase in concentration is going to result in a very large percentage increase. I131 is a man-made isotope and has an extremely short half-life (8 days). It doesn't stick around very long.

From the article, the detected radiation was 30,591 mBq/m^3, or approximately 31 Bq/m^3. To put that in perspective:

1 tbsp salt substitute (Potassium) = 527 Bq
1 banana = 20 Bq
1 human adult 100 Bq/kg x 70 kg = 7,000 Bq
1 kg of coffee = 1,000 Bq
1 kg superphosphate fertilizer = 5,000 Bq
1 household smoke detector (with americium) = 30,000 Bq
1 kg of coal ash = 2,000 Bq
1 kg of granite (as in kitchen counter tops) = 1,000 Bq



Interesting as I always thought that Alaska would get the worst of it.
Quoting 310. Webberweather53:



No Bacon? Smh...
Link
Are you COMPLAINING ????

[walks away muttering BYOB....]
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[grin]