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Atlanta tornado one the most damaging on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:24 PM GMT on March 17, 2008

The strong EF2 tornado that smashed through downtown Atlanta at 9:40 pm Friday night is a reminder that the U.S. is potentially vulnerable to a very high death toll from a violent tornado hitting a major city. Friday's tornado, with a width of 200 yards, path length of 6 miles, and winds up to 130 mph, was strong enough to cause an estimated $150-$200 million in damage to downtown Atlanta. Only 16 tornadoes during the 20th century caused inflation-adjusted damage more than $200 million (Brooks and Doswell, 2000), so the Atlanta tornado is one of the most damaging of all time. Fortunately, no one was killed, although at least 27 people were injured, one seriously.

As unlucky as Atlanta was to have its first tornado ever to hit the downtown area, the city was extremely fortunate that the tornado was not not stronger. What would have happened if a clone of the strongest tornado on record--the May 3, 1999 Bridgecreek-Moore F5 tornado--had hit Atlanta? According to tornado researcher Josh Wurman of the Center for Severe Weather Research in Boulder and three co-authors in a paper published in the January 2007 issue of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, the toll would have been staggering--14,900 deaths and tens of billions in damage. I discussed their findings in an April 2007 blog.

However, three tornado researchers, led by Harold Brooks of the National Severe Storms Laboratory, challenged these numbers in a January 2008 article in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. They argued that Wurman et al. overestimated the potential deaths from such a storm by a factor of 100, and a death toll nearer to 150 would be more reasonable. They stated:

Given that the highest death toll in a tornado in U.S. history is 695 in the Tri-State tornado of 1925, and that the last death toll of greater than 100 was in 1953, the validity of these estimates is of some concern.

The authors conceded that a violent tornado traveling the length of a rush hour-packed freeway or hitting a sports stadium filled with spectators could generate much higher death tolls. Wurman et al. responded to the criticism by defending their death toll estimates:

We acknowledge that historical tornadoes have not caused the level of fatalities estimated in our paper. However, considering that tornadoes are relatively rare and that dense population in urban and suburban neighborhoods in the United States is a relatively recent but growing phenomenon, the historical record is too short to indicate the range of possible events.

Considering that Friday's Atlanta tornado hit the Georgia Dome stadium when it was packed with 16,000 people watching an SEC tournament basketball game, I think that both groups of researchers would agree that a death toll in the thousands was quite possible had the Atlanta tornado been an EF5.


Figure 1. Doppler winds image of the March 14, 2008, Atlanta, Georgia EF2 tornado. Note the region just northwest of the city showing blues and reds right next to each other, denoting strong winds moving both towards and away from the radar in a tight circulation. This is the signature associated with a mesocyclone--a rotating thunderstorm that commonly spawns a tornado.

More severe weather expected this week
Severe weather is expected over much of the Midwest and Southern U.S. over the next three days, in association with a strong cold front that will traverse the region. The Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, and Arkansas under its lowest classification of potential severe weather today, "Slight Risk". The Weather Underground Severe Weather page and Tornado page are good places to go to follow this week's severe weather.

Good tornado book
For those of you interested in reading about the most violent and most damaging tornado on record, the famed 1999 Bridgecreek-Moore tornado, I recommend a reading of Nancy Mathis' book Storm Warning, which is now out in paperback. I reviewed the book in a blog last year.

Annual WeatherDance contest ready for registration!
Armchair forecasters, now's your chance to shine! WeatherDance, based on teams in the men's and women's NCAA basketball tournaments, allows players to predict which team's city will be hotter or colder on game day in each round of the Big Dance. Beginning today, players can make their forecasts at the Weather Dance Web site at: www.weatherdance.org. The site will be updated with cities promptly after NCAA seeding announcements. First round Weather Dance selections must be entered by 11:59 p.m. EST Wednesday, March 19.

"Officially, Weather Dance began as a class project to get students involved in weather forecasting, but we kept it around because it got popular. People think they can do better forecasting than the meteorologists. Well, here's their shot!" said Perry Samson, WeatherDance creator, co-founder of the The Weather Underground, Inc., and Professor in the Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences at the University of Michigan.

This is the third year for the game. Last year more than 2,000 people played. Most play merely for the thrill, but many science teachers involve their classes as part of meteorology units. The winning teacher will receive an invitation and $500 to join the Texas Tech/University of Michigan Storm Chasing team this spring for a day of tornado chasing. Other winners will receive a Weather Underground umbrella or a copy of the book "Extreme Weather," by Christopher C. Burt.

Jeff Masters
Atlanta Tornado Damage
Atlanta Tornado Damage
Brick Bldg that was destroyed by tornado landed on this car!
Atlanta Tornado F2 CNN CENTER
Atlanta Tornado F2 CNN CENTER
The first recorded tornado hit downtown Atlanta last night causing major damage
2 inch Hail
2 inch Hail
This is some of the hail after tornadoes swept through our area today.

Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. M. Very destructive indeed.
Happy St. Patty's Day, everyone!
This tornado could've been much worse. The SEC tournament game that was being held at the Georiga Dome was a game that was a few minutes into overtime. The game could've very well had ended 10 minutes prior to the tornado ripping through that region where many of the spectators would have been exiting the building and right in the path of the approaching storm.

A death toll in the tens of thousands for a strong EF-5 tornado hitting at a time where many people are vulnerable is certainly possible.
Wow... it reminds me of the tornado that hit Ft. Worth Texas a few years back. The damage in ATL is worse, but it sure reminds me of when the Bank One Building was hit, people in the top floor restaurant (Rialto) hiding in the walk in coolers... The Worthington Hotel was hit. There were several buildings that collapsed...
I think it was in 2000.
EF-5 damage Link
Truly amazing... it could have been much worse as Sully pointed out!

Thank goodness for Overtime!
Its going to be another wild week this week for boomers.
Dr Masters - some time ago I heard that the Moore F5 realized the fears that many in the meteorological community had after the circa-1991 video aired of people taking refuge under a bridge overpass. Apparently several people did exactly that and were sucked out and killed just as predicted. I don't remember where I heard it and I don't know if it was from a reliable source. Can you (or anyone else reading this) provide any kind of confirmation that this indeed happened? If true, it certainly wasn't publicized enough as I still hear the "hide under bridges" myth frequently here in tornado alley.
Link

New Mesoscale Discussion for central texas.
Hey All.....Very Nice weather the last several days in Northern Florida but another set-up for a possible round of severe weather across the Mid-West/Central/Gulf/South Eastern States over the next few days.....Always have to watch these late Spring cold fronts very carefully as temperatures warm (to almost Summerlike temps in some areas) and then collide with these late fronts in March/Early April........Hoping everyone stays informed & safe (not thrilled to see the "moderate risk" update in Texas Michfan.....Wonder if this may also change the current low risk convective outlooks further East........Just have to wait and see I guess..................)....
glad few people were hurt. They were showing the atrium of the CNN building on their news this morning and talking about how much of it needs replaced. It looks strikingly like the roof here in Portland at the Lloyd Center Mall. Granted, we only have an estimated 1 tornado touch down in this area a year, but makes me wonder if they'll be repairing, or just replacing that roof with something else during the cleanup.
Tornadoes seem very infrequent around Chicago, but they do happen. The F5 tornado, which struck Plainfield in 1990, is a perfect example of this. Of course, these are all "what-if" scenarios, but it's possible. Statistically, it's only a matter of time. Right?
5. Beachfoxx 2:36 PM GMT on March 17, 2008
Wow... it reminds me of the tornado that hit Ft. Worth Texas a few years back. The damage in ATL is worse,


I don't think so...that Bank One tower was far more damaged than any of the larger buildings in Atlanta.

See here for details like far more damage in dollars, deaths, injured, and pictures of more complete destruction than any from Atlanta.

Thanks Dr. Masters.
The Mallick Tower looks like its leaning to the right. What ever happened to it ?
16. TEXASYANKEE43 6:56 PM GMT on March 17, 2008
The Mallick Tower looks like its leaning to the right. What ever happened to it ?


Apparently, was successfully rehabbed: Link

Maybe the camera was leaning left?
For you TC nuts out there that actually look at the modeled probabilities (from email):
TO: SUBSCRIBERS:
-FAMILY OF SERVICES
-NOAA WEATHER WIRE SERVICE
-EMERGENCY MANAGERS WEATHER INFORMATION NETWORK
OTHER NWS PARTNERS...AND NWS EMPLOYEES

FROM: THERESE Z. PIERCE
CHIEF...MARINE AND COASTAL SERVICES BRANCH

SUBJECT: CHANGES TO TROPICAL CYCLONE PROBABILISTIC WIND
SPEED TEXT PRODUCTS: EFFECTIVE MAY 15 2008

REFER TO: SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE /SCN/ 08-19: TRANSMITTED
MAR 17 2008

BASED ON USER FEEDBACK...SEVERAL ENHANCEMENTS TO THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE PROBABILISTIC WIND SPEED TEXT /PWS/ PRODUCTS BECOME
EFFECTIVE MAY 15 2008. THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING SUITE OF
PRODUCTS:

BASINWMO HEADINGAWIPS ID
ATLANTICFONT/11-15/ KNHC PWSAT/1-5/
EASTERN PACIFIC FOPZ/11-15/ KNHCPWSEP/1-5/
CENTRAL PACIFIC FOPA/11-15/ PHFOPWSCP/1-5/

1. A MAXIMUM WIND SPEED /INTENSITY/ PROBABILITY TABLE...DENOTED
AS SECTION I...WILL BE ADDED. THE TABLE WILL PROVIDE
PROBABILITIES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS:
-DISSIPATED
-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
-TROPICAL STORM
-HURRICANE
-EACH SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE CATEGORIES 1 THROUGH 5.

2. THE EXISTING TABLE IN THE CURRENT PWS PRODUCTS WILL BE
DENOTED AS SECTION II AND IDENTIFIED AS THE WIND SPEED
PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS. ADDITIONALLY THE
CURRENT LOCATION-SPECIFIC PROBABILITIES DO NOT INCLUDE LOCATIONS
HAVING A CUMULATIVE 5-DAY PROBABILITY LESS THAN 2.5 PERCENT.
THIS THRESHOLD WILL BE LOWERED TO 1.0 PERCENT FOR THE 64-KNOT
PROBABILITIES ONLY.

3. THE PORTION OF THE EXISTING PRODUCT...NOW DENOTED AS WIND
SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS...PROVIDING WIND SPEED
PROBABILITIES AT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST POINTS THROUGH 120
HOURS...WILL BE ELIMINATED. THIS INFORMATION IS REPLACED BY THE
NEW TABLE IN SECTION I...PROVIDING MAXIMUM WIND SPEED
PROBABILITIES FOR THE FULL AREAL EXTENT OF THE STORM THROUGH
120 HOURS.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE ENHANCED PWS TEXT PRODUCTS IS PROVIDED ONLINE
AT /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OS/HURRICANE/PDFS/WIND-PROB.PDF
Why does the media always forget to figure in two other important "inflation" adjustments. You always hear the infamous $$ inflation adjustment to enhance a weather phenomenon's damage. One of the media's many scare tatics. What they fail to tell everyone is the adjusted population inflation and structural inflation. Take the recent Kentucky tornado. Not to downplay the severity or suffering of the damage. That's fact and sorrowful. But, how much damage to life and property would the same tornado in the same area caused 20, 30, 40 years ago? It would probably be like many of the mid-west tornados we still see today roaming across the vast open farmland. Just a neat and awesome sight to watch from the distance. No "F" rating. Not $$ figures adjusted for inflation. Just some cool pictures or video footage. The main cause of increased weather damages are from population inflation. In 10 yrs, when a flood hits the Ohio Valley, a hurricane hits the upper gulf coast, a tornado hits the mid-west, plains, or bluegrass area, the damage to life and property will be greater than anything prior to it. More property damage, more loss of life, more lives displaced. All things negative increase with poulation increase. Storm damage, crime, deaths, etc. It's nothing new. Do the math.
Has anyone seen the images of the low of the Canada??
I was just 5 miles north of the F3 and F4 tornadoes that hit White and Hall counties in March 1998. I was with my Dad riding bikes in helen, ga. also in white county. we woke up, drove just a few miles south and everything was obliterated. I've been through 2 hurrcanes and many TS's, I've never seen anything like that. they were around the same time of year, near the same area. Also, these storms came from a severe warning box to NOTIHNG. there were NO watches or warnings when F3 and F4 tornadoes were on the ground. only after the destruction did a futile tornado watch box appear. 14 were killed, it was tragic.
oh and that wasn't a comment to or about you luvz. I never read your post till now. I agree with you about population. people just "forget", it's strange.
Hey all, hope everyone is well.

In the middle of a move, so only popping in.
Have uploaded some images of a 3-15-08 possible tornado that impacted Moncks Corner, SC

See y'all soon

Awesome Shot of a extratropical low in the NW ATL

The low even looks more breath taking when put in motion
17. atmoaggie 7:03 PM GMT on March 17, 2008

Apparently, was successfully rehabbed:
Maybe the camera was leaning left?


Wow, it looks great now.
The tail end of that big Extrop. in the Atlantic is wrapped into Texas....
Wow that is an amazing picture. Whats the pressure on that?
RSMC: India Meteorological Department (New Delphi, India)

Tropical Cyclone Outlook (0600z 17MAR)
==========================

Convective clouds are seen over parts of southwest Bay of Bengal, South Andaman Sea, and southeast Arabian Sea.

1800z 17MAR - Marine Discussion
=============================

The trough of low at Sri Lanka over Lakshadweep area and adjoining southeast and east central Arabian Sea persists.
I fear if an EF-2 does this to Atlanta, imagine an
EF-5/6 hitting Dallas.
Whats the pressure on that?

---
not really sure looks like the analyse charts are suggesting 968 MB
....SYNOPSIS....

GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W....

A deep layer ridge has its axis extending from the Western Caribbean, across the Gulf into the Eastern half of the United States. Mid-upper dry air covers most of the Gulf with the most prevalent amounts across the Southeastern corner; while diffluent flow around the crest of the ridge is enhancing widespread cloudiness and showers along a serious of surface fronts/lows over the Southern United States. Visible satellite imagery showed a dissipating frontal boundary extending from the Atlantic, through the Florida Straits...along the length of the Western Cuba Coast...and over the Eastern Gulf to the Mississippi Coast before finally connecting to a series of fronts over the Southern United States. The front lies within the dry environment under the ridge and thus only scattered low clouds are within 60 nmi of the front.

QuikSCAT and marine observations indicated that a strong transitory anticyclone along the Eastern United States is supporting 10-20 knot anticyclonic flow over the Gulf of Mexico with the strongest winds approaching the coast of Northern Mexico, Texas and Louisiana where the pressure gradient is clearly tightest. Swells will be mainly easterly at around 5-6 ft everywhere, approaching 7-8 ft over the Gulf west of 90W. Swells should be less significant along the West Coast of the Florida Peninsula where the flow is mainly offshore.

A large vertically stacked low pressure area is located at 40.9N/56.6W. This system is supporting a well define cold front which extends from 33N/50W arching towards the Southern Bahamas, then along the length of Cuba and into the Southeast Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers are within 150 nmi of the leading frontal rope structures. Now, a very strong high pressure system...1038 mb...over the Eastern United States and Canada is producing moderate to very strong northwest winds over much of the area behind the cold front from 80W to 50W. This continues to produce fairly large northwest wind waves and swells across the area...especially north of 25N. Buoy 41038, located near 31.9784 N 69.649 W, reported a peak wind gust of 49 knots around 1200 UTC today and peak swells of 19 ft which are still being reported. Other marine reports indicated some gale force winds reaching the Bahaman Islands.

by W456
29. Michfan 4:30 PM AST on March 17, 2008
Wow that is an amazing picture. Whats the pressure on that?


Analysed 966 mb

Lowest reported pressure 987 mb
This is when i wish those new budgets kicked in for the Hurricane Hunters to go into extratropical storms such as this.
Goes-12 Imagery of thew Atlantic Low CWS Link
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION....

Upper ridging and dry air dominates the Caribbean basin, thereby, deep convection remains absent. The high pressure system along the Eastern United States will maintain a light to moderate easterly flow over the Caribbean as seen on visible imagery. Some patches of low level moisture will move across the Lesser Antilles at times, causing a passing light to moderate shower or two. Seas will be 4-5 ft mainly east of 70W, increasing to 6 ft west of 70W. The highest swells are expected to be 8-11 ft along the Colombian Coast and SW Caribbean.

by W456
ATLANTA -- The storms that hit metro Atlanta were even worse than most people thought.

There were four and possibly as many 14 tornadoes spawned over the weekend, officials at the National Weather Service said Monday afternoon.


Link
Environment Canada's Official Weather Warnings

Warnings
Halifax County - east of Porters Lake
3:41 PM ADT Monday 17 March 2008
Wind warning for
Halifax County - east of Porters Lake continued

Wind gusts to near 90 km/h will continue tonight and into Tuesday morning.

This is a warning that potentially damaging winds are occurring in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.



A very intense low well to the southeast of Nova Scotia will remain nearly stationary tonight then weaken gradually on Tuesday as it drifts eastward. Strong northerly winds well away from the low are affecting Nova Scotia and will continue into the day Tuesday. Gusts up to 90 km/h are forecast over the eastern part of the province.


Grand Etang, Nova Scotia
wunderground page Link



Local Time: 6:53 PM ADT Your time: 4:53 PM CDT — Set My Timezone Lat/Lon: 46.5° N 61.0° W (Google Map)
Current Conditions

Grand Etang, CA (Airport)
Updated: 53 min 16 sec ago
Unknown
27 °F / -3 °C
N/A
Windchill: 8 °F / -13 °C
Humidity: 69%
Dew Point: 18 °F / -8 °C
Wind: 40 mph / 65 km/h / 18.0 m/s from the North
Wind Gust: 51 mph / 82 km/h / 22.6 m/s
9. BigTuna 3:10 PM GMT on March 17, 2008
some time ago I heard that the Moore F5 realized the fears that many in the meteorological community had after the circa-1991 video aired of people taking refuge under a bridge overpass. Apparently several people did exactly that and were sucked out and killed just as predicted.

Powerpoint slides discussing hiding below an underpass:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/papers/overpass.html

From slide 6:
"It is our contention that highway overpasses are inadequate tornado sheltering locations for the following meteorological reasons. First, ALL tornadoes have some amount of debris within their near-surface flow. In the case of a strong or violent tornado, much more debris would be present, traveling at much higher speeds, especially when debris from man-made structures is involved. In strong and violent tornadoes, typically harmless everyday items such as shingles, boards, pop cans, dishes (or pieces thereof) become dangerous missiles and are responsible for most tornado casualties. Second, by climbing up under an overpass, people will be exposed to higher wind speeds and more flying debris. Third, the narrow passage underneath an overpass might cause an increase in the wind speed under the bridge. The extent to which this is true, and the circumstances under which it could happen are not known, but this is at least a possibility. Fourth, most overpasses don't have girders or support beams for handholds or small ledges into which to crawl. And, finally, if an overpass is directly in the path of a tornado, the wind will change direction nearly 180 degrees as the vortex passes. Thus, if one side of the overpass was protected from the highest wind speeds as the tornado approached, that same side of the bridge will be completely exposed to the wind and flying debris as the tornado moves away and vice-versa.

Seeking shelter under a highway overpass is to become a stationary target for flying debris, with a substantial risk of being blown out and carried by the tornado winds. Safety in such a location is merely an illusion."
Another excerpt (emphasis theirs) from slide 8:
"The second fatality occurred at the Shields Boulevard overpass at its junction with Interstate 35 in the City of Moore. These photographs show many of the same things as the pictures of the 16th Street overpass. The top two photographs were taken by the author in late September. On the upper right is a view, looking south, of the west side of the bridge where the people were huddled. In the drainage ditch in the foreground, is a small memorial to the lady killed at this location. Her body was not found until one week after the tornado. The spot where her body was eventually found was buried underneath 6 to 8 feet of debris immediately after the tornado passed."
Two cells have just begun to develop north of Ballinger TX/South of Abilene. To me they look to be forming rather quickly. The maximum dBZ on the radar has jumped from 47 on the previous scan of the biggest to 57 on the next.

Dr. Masters, I remember a post you had done on the Microburst of December 9th 2005 showing a satellite image of the eye that had passed over Cape Cod, MA. I was wondering If you have any more information that I can use, or maybe any archives from your post that is not there anymore? Thanks.
In 10 yrs, when a flood hits the Ohio Valley

If forecasts are correct, more like 10 hours... up to half a foot of rain may fall over most of the central U.S. over the next day or two (even the NWS and HPC are forecasting that much; the HPC forecast is below).



The NWS says that 5-7 inches of rain are possible around here, not including an inch or so that already fell today (also not included on the map above).
Would that cause St Louis to flood Michael?


I was reading about the 93 flood - I guess a few things have to happen.
If true, it certainly wasn't publicized enough as I still hear the "hide under bridges" myth frequently here in tornado alley.

In this case, I would find it hard not to fault somebody if they were injured or killed while trying to do that... they even say not to do it in warnings, like this one:



SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
611 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT FOR HUNT
COUNTY...

AT 611 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR QUINLAN...OR ABOUT
10 MILES SOUTH OF GREENVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
GREENVILLE BY 620 PM CDT...
NEYLANDVILLE AND CAMPBELL BY 630 PM CDT...
COMMERCE BY 640 PM CDT...

EVACUATE MOBILE HOMES FOR A STORM SHELTER OR PERMANENT BUILDING. IF
NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH AND COVER
YOUR HEAD.

DO NOT STOP UNDER BRIDGES OR HIGHWAY OVERPASSES SINCE THEY OFFER NO
PROTECTION FROM TORNADO WINDS.
Would that cause St Louis to flood Michael?

It certainly would cause a lot of problems if it occurred, although I would be more concerned about the Ohio River, which is already running high. Also, as far as a major flood is concerned, St. Louis is more likely to be affected by heavy rainfall upstream on the Missouri and/or Mississippi rivers (as in 1993; the storm track so far this year has been further south, though there is still a lot of snow on the ground waiting to melt in the Upper Midwest).
These storms have just exploded in the past hour. Note the southern most storm in the image...the radar i'm looking at is hinting at a possible mesocyclone along with hail bigger than an inch. Right now we have about 6 severe storm warnings and one tornado warning. I think the mets in Texas and OK have their work cut out for them tonight.

MODIS detects low level jet off the coast of Southern Africa.

Over the weekend I posted some information on the coastal jet of Southern Africa. In the MODIS TERRA image below taken today, the hydraulic theory is illustrated.

This thoery simply states as air flowing along a coast passes a cape it expands and moves offshore forming what is called an expansion fan.

, though there is still a lot of snow on the ground waiting to melt in the Upper Midwest).

I forgot about that, It was in the 80s here today.

FOUR active tornado Warnings up!!!
Some good information on the current outbreak can be found here



Guys, on the 12th, we will see Dr. Jeff Masters on the moon, and this picture proves it!
lol
The two big storms in South Texas have very strong vortex signatures with multiple rotations within them (the one to the left just gained a tornado warning after I took the image)...classic hook shapes...(from GRLevel3). Vortexes are in pink triangles, Severe storm warnings in red and tornado warnings in purple. The little swirls are MESO's.



Also there's a cluster of storms south of Abilene with tornado warnings for portions of Taylor, Nolan, and Runnels counties.
Good night all...tomorrow looks to also be active in weather (MODERATE risk).
Check this view out!!

Near Abilene? Head for cover!!!
terra nova...fairly distinct hook echo on the right hand storm...and very large cell.
can someone give me a link to the computers model web site? gfdl cmc etc.. i just got new pc n lost all my shortcuts
Looks like a vortex nearing Robert Lee Texas.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 1116 PM CDT MON MAR 17 2008 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN TOM GREEN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS... CENTRAL SCHLEICHER COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...
Sure looks like a problem
For GFS data and RUC (really WRF now) I like UCAR Link
Looks like Texas has its hands full.....
Nice convergence zone (G'nite all):

And look at the sharp front defined in the IR:

Its getting worse in Texas........long night ahead it appears.
Regarding the Atlanta tornado, here's what Roger Edwards has had to say about tornadoes hitting big venues:

Online Tornado FAQ
What about tornado safety in sports stadiums or outdoor festivals? Excellent question -- and a very, very disturbing one to many meteorologists. Tornadoes have passed close to such gatherings on a few occasions, including a horse race in Omaha on 6 May 1975 and a crowded dog track in West Memphis AR on 14 December 1987. A supercell without a tornado hit a riverside festival in Ft. Worth in 1995, catching over 10,000 people outdoors and bashing many of them with hail bigger than baseballs. Just in the last few years, tornadoes have hit the football stadium for the NFL Tennessee Titans, and the basketball arena for the NBA Utah Jazz. Fortunately, they were both nearly empty of people at the time. There is the potential for massive death tolls if a stadium or fairground is hit by a tornado during a concert, festival or sporting event -- even with a warning in effect. Fans may never know about the warning; and even if they do, mass-panic could ensue and result in casualties even if the tornado doesn't hit.

It looks like this was an incredibly close call. The tornado was 6 mph shy of EF-3, and it put holes in the stadium roof. Has anyone done studies on the type of winds that would be required to actually destroy a stadium and make it a hazard for the people in it? It's not one of the indicators in the EF Scale, but if 130 mph winds damaged the roof, it probably wouldn't require more than about 60-70 mph more to create a life-threatening situation, because of the extra debris that would be in those winds. I hope that this close call gets people's attention.
A classic vortex on radar nearing Sonora Tx. They should be taking cover.....the hook is very visible on radar.
Anyone online right now? I'm looking at these amazing storms on Radar. Wondering what they are going to look like when they get towards Corpus Christi.

Anyone have any predictions?
GOM 60 Hour Wave Forecast Model Link







Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
417 am CDT Tuesday Mar 18 2008


Short term...


A very strong upper level low and associated surface low
developing over Texas will be the primary players through the
first 36 hours of the forecast. As the low deepens in Texas
today...a very strong pressure gradient between the low and a
ridge over the southeast will develop across the forecast area.
Winds are expected to exceed advisory criteria through the day
into tonight...as the low deepens and begins to approach the
region. Sustained winds of 20 to 30 miles per hour with higher gusts are
expected. Temperatures will remain about 5 to 10 degrees above
normal today as well...as the strong southerly flow off the Gulf
continues...and a thermal axis currently over East Texas advects
into the region. Skies will remain cloudy through the day...as low
and midlevel moisture pump in from the Gulf. The persistent strong
southerly winds will also drive up tides 1 to 2 feet above normal
today into early tonight. Overall probability of precipitation should remain low this
morning...as the strongest dynamic forcing remains over
Texas...but a few showers and thunderstorms could develop by late
this afternoon...and increasing positive vorticity advection and
split flow aloft develop. The highest chance for probability of precipitation will be
closer to the low over western zones.


Going into tonight...the main thrust of the low pressure system
will affect the Gulf south. A strong 120 knot jet streak should
round the base of the upper level low in Texas. As this takes
place...the upper level low should begin to take on a more
negative tilt and eject northeastward toward the arklatex region.
The corresponding surface reflection will move through the lower
Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. A fairly strong cold
front/dry line will trail the front over western Louisiana early
on and then sweep through the County Warning Area from late evening into the early
morning hours. At this time...there is a fairly strong chance that
severe thunderstorms will accompany this frontal passage. This is
due to the combination of strong thermodynamic and dynamic forcing
coming together across the region. Thermodynamically...a Theta-E
ridge will be across the region...lifted indices will be
negative...and the lifted condensation levels should be around 950
mb. Thus...ample fuel should be in place to support convective
development. Dynamically...the strong 120 knot jet streak will
pass directly through the lower Mississippi Valley...with the
region in the favorable right entrance region of the jet after
midnight. In addition...a very strong low level jet of 55 knots
is expected to form over the area...resulting in speed shear of 35
to 40 knots from 0-3 km at 06z. Given the overall wind
profile...expect more a linear event to affect the region
tonight...with bowing segments producing some hail and strong
damaging winds.
Good Morning...........All seems quiet on the Blog this morning (and is deceptively quiet over most of Texas right now) but the SPC convective outlooks keep "creeping" over towards the East for Texas/LA in the moderate risk category........Need to keep your eyes open, and radios on, as the day/evening develops in those parts as the front approaches the warm moisture sweeping up from the Gulf...................
80. weathermanwannabe 2:35 PM GMT on March 18, 2008
Need to keep your eyes open, and radios on, as the day/evening develops in those parts as the front approaches the warm moisture sweeping up from the Gulf...................


It's more like a torrant of moist air. We have had gusts of near 50 mph. this am here in Liberty, Tx.
It's more like a torrant of moist air. We have had gusts of near 50 mph. this am here in Liberty, Tx.

Yeah.....While frontal related conditions have not deteriorated yet, my concern for you guys/LA is if severe weather breaks out in the overnight hours when people are not awake/as alert.......It's all about the timing of the front and how stable/unstable the air mass is as the front approaches...Please take care this evening.....
82. weathermanwannabe 3:36 PM GMT on March 18, 2008


It's all about the timing of the front and how stable/unstable the air mass is as the front approaches...Please take care this evening.....



Last night was no picnic. This afternoon and evening is what has me worried......I live in a camper trailer.(in a trailer park)and you know how nadoes love to hunt them down?
This was unexpected - a PDS watch in a slight risk area (the moderate risk/strong tornado area is further south)...


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 130
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 AM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

A LARGE PORTION OF ARKANSAS
SMALL PART OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1020 AM UNTIL 600
PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
JONESBORO ARKANSAS TO 55 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PARIS TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY ALONG AND S
OF WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM E OF DAL TO NRN AR. VERY STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND A MOIST...INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
SUPPORTS TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF VEERING SHEAR
PROFILES POTENTIAL EXITS FOR STRONG TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.
We have all said many times; if conditions heading towards you are not looking good, and you are able to ride out the weather in a more sturdy stucture/home (friend-relative), by all means, make the phone calls and make the plans to spend the night somewhere else..........
lookout in Arkansas


Tornado Vortex Signature (SRX_C0)
ID: C0
County: Logan
Max: 62 dBZ
Top: 26,000 ft.
VIL: 24 kg/m²
Chance of Severe Hail: 20%
Chance of Hail: 80%
Max Hail Size: 0.75 in.
Speed: 57 knots
Direction (from): SW (223
Yup...A strong bowing section in the line of t-storms moving just east/south-east of Ft. Smith/AK right now.........
hey Patrap --yeah you called it wave watch alert!Post78. The only good thing coming out of this wind will be waves in the GOM - It's starting to fill in now,not surfable yet - should be tomorrow wednesday through thursday. Gulf temp. 68 and VERY windy here in SRQ.

Can't get wet today - Got to work out horses w/my son this afternoon. This constant wind has been a real stresser for the horses and the riders. Had one colic with the last front, and then working them out with these gusts takes a bit of courage when you have these 1000+lb four legged running machines spooking at everything that goes flying by. But it is as it is - definitely a helmet day.

These potential tornado set-ups w3ill surely keep you guys busy today. Off to work G'day all

\
Thursday looks bad for Most of Florida HOG
92. JFLORIDA 1:44 PM EDT on March 18, 2008 Thursday looks bad for Most of Florida HOG

It will ultimately depend on how well the front/squall line holds together as it moves eastward; the Florida Panhandle may get a little bumpy on Wednesday but the current forcast (after the system moves through TX/LA/MS/AL) is for the system to weaken a bit as it moves east along the Gulf......Just too early to tell right know what the Peninsula of Florida can expect, if anything, as the front approaches you on late Wed/Early Thurs...........
More changes to the NHC products (from email):

"FROM: THERESE Z. PIERCE
CHIEF...MARINE AND COASTAL SERVICES BRANCH

SUBJECT: CHANGES TO THE MAXIMUM 1-MINUTE WIND SPEED
PROBABILITY PRODUCT: EFFECTIVE MAY 15 2008

REFER TO: SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE /SCN/ 08-19: TRANSMITTED
MAR 17 2008

BASED ON USER FEEDBACK...AND TO PROVIDE GREATER FORMAT
CONSISTENCY WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE PROBABILISTIC WIND SPEED
TEXT /PWS/ PRODUCTS...THE MAXIMUM 1-MINUTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITY
PRODUCT WILL CHANGE EFFECTIVE MAY 15 2008 AS FOLLOWS:

1. EXPANDED PROBABILITY FORECASTS FROM 72 TO 120 HOURS...THE
CURRENT PRODUCT PROVIDES PROBABILITY FORECASTS THROUGH 72 HOURS.
THE ENHANCED PRODUCT WILL INCLUDE 96 AND 120 HOUR PROBABILITY
FORECASTS.

2. REVISED PRODUCT FORMAT. THE CURRENT PRODUCT IS TABULAR...WITH
FORECAST TIMES IN HORIZONTAL ROWS AND WIND SPEED INTERVALS IN
VERTICAL COLUMNS. THE REVISED PRODUCT WILL REMAIN TABULAR...BUT
FORECASTS WILL BE PROVIDED IN COLUMNS AND WIND SPEED INTERVALS
WILL BE PROVIDED IN ROWS.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE ENHANCED MAXIMUM 1-MINUTE WIND SPEED
PROBABILITY PRODUCT IS PROVIDED ONLINE AT /USE LOWER CASE
LETTERS/:

HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTNHCGRAPHICS.SHTML
"
And changing the timing of the tropical weather outlook from NHC:

TO:SUBSCRIBERS:
-FAMILY OF SERVICES
-NOAA WEATHER WIRE SERVICE
-EMERGENCY MANAGERS WEATHER INFORMATION NETWORK
OTHER NWS PARTNERS...USERS AND EMPLOYEES

FROM:THERESE Z. PIERCE
CHIEF...MARINE AND COASTAL SERVICES BRANCH

SUBJECT:CHANGE TO THE ISSUANCE TIMES FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND ATLANTIC TEXT TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK /TWO/
PRODUCTS: EFFECTIVE MAY 15 2008 AND JUNE 1 2008...
RESPECTIVELY

REFER TO:PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT TRANSMITTED MAR 18 2008
FOR EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL TWO PRODUCT

BEGINNING MAY 15 2008 FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE
BASIN...AND BEGINNING JUNE 1 2008 FOR THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE
BASIN...IN RESPONSE TO USER FEEDBACK AND IN COORDINATION WITH THE
SCHEDULE FOR OTHER NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER PRODUCTS...THE
ISSUANCE TIMES FOR THE TEXT TWO WILL CHANGE AS FOLLOWS.

1. FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN...THE CURRENT TWO ISSUANCE TIMES
ARE 0400/1000/1600/AND 2200 PACIFIC LOCAL TIME. EFFECTIVE MAY 15
2008 THE NEW ISSUANCE TIMES WILL BE 0500/1100/1700/AND 2300
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME...WHICH CORRESPONDS TO 0400/1000/1600 AND
2200 PACIFIC STANDARD TIME...OR 0000/0600/1200 AND 1800
COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME /UTC/.

2. FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN...THE CURRENT TWO ISSUANCE TIMES ARE
0530/1130/1730/AND 2230 EASTERN LOCAL TIME. EFFECTIVE JUNE 1 2008
THE NEW ISSUANCE TIMES WILL BE 0200/0800/1400 AND 2000 EASTERN
DAYLIGHT TIME...WHICH CORRESPONDS TO 0100/0700/1300 AND 1900
EASTERN STANDARD TIME...OR 0000/0600/1200 AND 1800 UTC.

THERE WILL BE NO CHANGE TO THE PRODUCT CONTENT.
My cousin just sent this to me that works with an airline...

Just reported on the news, due to severe weather, American Airlines has cancelled all their flights at DFW in Dallas. That is over 700 flights!

Really nasty out here on the Great Plains today.

Take care all!!!
The NAM is showing a lot more activity than the GFS, which has been more active on past runs. I don't think anyone is to sure of anything now, even though its just a couple days out.

Personally I think it could be bad as it is already looking worse than forecast.
FAA to order spot check of maintenance records at all U.S. carriers
03.18.08, 2:22 PM ET

SAN FRANCISCO (Thomson Financial) - The Federal Aviation Administration is ordering a spot check of maintenance paperwork at all U.S. carriers, according to a media report Tuesday.

Story Link
So the forecasters said we were supposed to have a lot of rain today but i woke up to a DRY SIDEWALK.

Why is this??
Ouch...


0136 PM HEAVY RAIN CARBONDALE 37.72N 89.22W
03/18/2008 M9.75 INCH JACKSON IL TRAINED SPOTTER


The National Weather Service in St Louis has issued a

* Flood Warning for
the Meramec river near Eureka.
* From Wednesday morning to Sunday morning.
* At 10:30 am Tuesday the stage was 7.9 feet.
* Major flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Forecast... rise above flood stage tomorrow morning and continue
to rise to near 36.0 feet by Friday early afternoon and fall below
flood stage by Sunday morning.
* Impact... at 35.9 feet... this flood level was set on September 26
1993.




A lot more still to come... 1 plus foot rainfall totals look likely... especially since it looks like the severe weather outbreak down south will bust, thus more moisture will make it north...




Also fatalities...

0800 AM FLOOD ELLINGTON 37.24N 90.97W 03/18/2008
REYNOLDS MO
*** 1 FATAL *** AN ADULT MALE WAS SWEPT INTO THE FAST
WATER OF A FLOODED CREEK AND DROWNED. TIME APPROX.
Pretty furious line of storms a few miles northwest of my house. It just went from sunny to dark. The GRLevel3 was indicating weak rotation with this storm.... This popped out of no where
Finally they put out that PNS at the NHC.

Here's an example of what the updated graphical outlook will look like.

Tornado warning was issued for the area where my house is in Corpus Christi. That was real random. Supposedly this storm is headed for the Naval Air Station and A&M Corpus Christi.
My county (Nueces) -- Corpus Christi, has been in a tornado warning for a while now. These storms appeared out of no where. I was looking outside and the wind picked up substantially. Then i look at the TV and there's a tornado warning for an area two streets away from mine, moving away from my house. Thank god. I know funnel clouds were reported, no idea if they touched down.

Shocked

One minute it's sunny, the next it's dark.

The tornado was heading for the Naval Air Station and A&M Corpus Christi... where i go to school.
New issue times are up for the TWO (Tropical Weather Outlook) beginning on June 1st.

The issuance times for the TWO and GTWO will be changed to 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC. In previous years, the Atlantic TWO was issued at 5:30 AM, 11:30 AM, 5:30 PM, and 10:30 PM, ET while the Pacific TWO's were issued at 4 AM, 10 AM, 4 PM, and 10 PM, PT.

Also they're making some great changes to the GTWO (Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook) including the addition of color coded probabilities of genesis.

Link
terra....thanks for that piece of info
Ive been posting about the NHC changes for weeks now on dr.masters lol!The changes are great if you ask me.Hopefully we wont see those red shades to much this season.
The low pressure system over Northern Mexico (about to enter Texas) is starting to move NE (as predicted) and will be dragging the front accross southern/coastal TX/LA/MS soon.....To the North (Mid-CONUS) the system will cause lots of flooding............Overall, a pretty bad weather situation for the US right now...Prayers out to everyone in the path of this weather event and hoping for the best.......I'll see everyone tommorow (from the western florida panhandle (I'm in Tallahassee today) and keep Yall posted on local events here as the front moves through the Florida Panhandle............BBT
Afternoon H23 and Weather456...I agree; the probability portion of the GTWO is something that I've always hoped the NHC would put in somehow.
Wow, were getting really bad floods in Dallas. I am praying that Dallas dosent get hit by a Tornado. Whats going on with the weather!? ITS INSANE!
Its almost Spring,..nothing new here.

Severe Weather season is 365.



WV Loop Atlantic Basin Link
The Media is well on top of the Fray. And the NOAA network has all transmitters in operation at this time.

Employers and others may find this useful.

Emergency Action Plan Checklist.PDF:Link
Tornado Safety...in Brief. Link

Encourage your family members to plan for their own safety in many different locations. It is important to make decisions about the safest places well BEFORE you ever have to go to them.
CAPE isn't very high at all, but CIN is fairly low. I would be somewhat surprised at nados with CAPE less than 2500 J/kg

From the latest RUC/WRF:
What to Do During a Tornado: Link
EHI (CAPE considered with helicity) shows some potential for nados in the NAM foreacst for TX/LA in the next 24 hours, but the EHI falls after that for inland areas. Some high EHI values still offshore AL/FL/GA/SC/NC for tomorrow.

Link
Forecaster: DARROW
Issued: 18/1948Z
Valid: 18/2000Z - 19/1200Z
Forecast Risk of Severe Storms: Moderate Risk


Mar 18, 2008 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

116. Patrap 9:30 PM GMT on March 18, 2008


I live in the L shaped county to the right of Houston. (right in the middle of the RED!)due North of Galveston
GOM 60 Hour Wave Model from ESL Link
NWS Radar Houston currently Link

I would be somewhat surprised at nados with CAPE less than 2500 J/kg

The real story today is the widespread and catastrophic flooding occurring across the central U.S., with a foot or more of rainfall expected in many areas. All-time record crests are also likely on many rivers; deaths have also already been reported. The fact that the severe weather appears to be a total bust (PDS watches? Not a single tornado report?) likely is making it even worse, with unimpeded moisture transport northwards.

The number of flood warnings is mind-boggling... probably around a thousand...
119. TEXASYANKEE43 9:36 PM GMT on March 18, 2008

Liberty? Dayton?
Turn around,dont drown!!!!.

The Flooding in Missouri is a bad issue, the severe event is further south. All interest in Missouri should Heed Local NWS statements and Local Emg Mgrs too.
Yes, STL, someone asked about nados in Dallas. I wouldn't expect that now.

I hear ya about the floods.

See Link...9 inches of rain (in places) and counting.
123. atmoaggie 9:46 PM GMT on March 18, 2008
Liberty? Dayton?


Liberty
This map is going to look incredible tomorrow when they include the rain that fell today; the lightest purple areas are 600 percent of normal, and over the past week (the daily map only includes total precipitation, not percentages):



Most of the areas with the heaviest rainfall have also been very wet over the last few months.
Good Drought relief for Many in the Southeast..
The fact that the severe weather appears to be a total bust (PDS watches? Not a single tornado report?) likely is making it even worse, with unimpeded moisture transport northwards.

We may have our first tornado report soon, so the severe weather event may not be a bust as you so aptly put it.

... A Tornado Warning remains in effect until 530 PM CDT for southern
Dunklin... Greene... southeastern Clay and north central Craighead
counties...

At 508 PM CDT... trained weather spotters reported a rotating
wallcloud and funnel cloud in Paragould.
There have been reports of
trees down in Paragould. This is a dangerous storm... take cover
immediately. This tornado was located near Paragould... moving
northeast at 50 mph.

Other locations in the warning include but are not limited to
Cardwell... Marmaduke... Arbyrd... Rector... Senath... Greenway and
Piggott.

.In addition to the tornado... This storm is capable of producing
quarter size hail and destructive straight line winds in excess of
80 mph.

.The safest place to be during a tornado is in a basement. Get under
a workbench or other piece of sturdy furniture. If no basement is
available... seek shelter on the lowest floor of the building in an
interior hallway or room such as a closet. Use blankets or pillows to
cover your body and always stay away from windows.

.If in Mobile homes or vehicles... Evacuate them and get inside a
substantial shelter. If no shelter is available... lie flat in the
nearest ditch or other low spot and cover your head with your hands.

.Stay tuned to this broadcast for the latest updates and information.
To report severe weather only... call 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

Lat... Lon 3608 8999 3586 9081 3595 9087 3596 9086
3601 9086 3603 9084 3605 9084 3608 9082
3643 9016
time... Mot... loc 2208z 239deg 47kt 3611 9041
Arthur C. Clarke has died.



Clarke was born in Minehead, Somerset, England. As a boy, he enjoyed stargazing and reading old American science fiction pulp magazines (many of which made their way to the UK in ships with sailors who read them to pass the time). After secondary school and studying at Huish's Grammar School, Taunton, he was unable to afford a university education and got a job as an auditor in the pensions section of the Board of Education.

During the Second World War, he served in the Royal Air Force as a radar specialist and was involved in the early warning radar defence system which contributed to the RAF's success during the Battle of Britain. Clarke actually spent most of his service time working on Ground Controlled Approach (GCA) radar, as documented in his semi-autobiographical novel Glide Path. Although GCA did not see much practical use in the war, after several more years of development it was vital to the Berlin Airlift of 1948-1949. He was demobilised with the rank of Flight Lieutenant. After the war, he earned a first-class degree in mathematics and physics at King's College London.

In the postwar years, Clarke became involved with the British Interplanetary Society and served for a time as its chairman. His most important contribution may have been the idea that geostationary satellites would be ideal telecommunications relays. He was the first in the world to propose this concept, doing so in a paper privately circulated among the core technical members of the BIS in 1945. The concept later was published in Wireless World in October of that year.[1][2][3] Clarke also wrote a number of non-fiction books describing the technical details and societal implications of rocketry and space flight. The most notable of these may be The Exploration of Space (1951) and The Promise of Space (1968). In recognition of these contributions, a geostationary orbit sometimes is referred to as a "Clarke orbit".
Dupage Severe Weather Warnings Page.Link
We may have our first tornado report soon, so the severe weather event may not be a bust as you so aptly put it.

Well, I was kind of thinking of something like this in terms of severe weather (especially with the two PDS watches and the way some were talking about it). Also, as far as the SPC is concerned, it was a bust, seeing that it was a large moderate risk and the first PDS watch has expired with no tornadoes (even if one or two wind reports are found to be tornadoes, it still wasn't big enough to verify, they have put up another tornado watch to replace the expired one, but only a "normal" watch with relatively low probabilities for severe weather, especially significant severe).


Lotsa energy to slide East tonight and overnight.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.


MichaelSTL im shocked!

The trailing low really hasn't even made it to the GOM yet.

But yea its a little slow for the storm system the NAM was predicting.

Take a look at this Buoy

Station 42002 - W GULF 240 nm South-Southeast of Sabine, TX

There is a possible tornado on the ground near Paragould, Arkansas. Doppler is showing a very strong rotation with NEXRAD indicating a Tornado Vortex Signature (TVS). NEXRAD is also detecting multiple rotations within the storm.

The warned cell now over Kennett, Arkansas has fluctuated in strength but still has a strong mesocyclone associated with it (though it doesn't look as powerful a signature as the Paragould storm).

Image from GRLevel3 with Base Reflectivity on left and Relative Velocity on the right:

This severe weather and flooding system will help the south-east drought.

I think where I live we got put down to a severe drought from some rain last Thursday.
Another Tornado Warning has been issued for a cell that will be nearing Tiptonville Arkansas.
Where do you guys get those radar images from?
Forgot my manners. Good evening all. Good luck to everyone dealing with the flooding and severe weather in association with this system. Even here in South Florida, we would not be able to withstand the rainfall coming down in the Midwest right now. Looks really bad. Remember, turn around, don't drown.
Where do you guys get those radar images from?

Evening, cchs.

This program...I'm using the trial version of GRLevel3 which is essentially identical to the purchased version (but it terminates after 21 days; it is a trial version, after all).
Changes for 2008



Possible vortex NE of Harrisburg Ark.
Just as i thought......
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 638 PM CDT TUE MAR 18 2008 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CRAIGHEAD COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS... SOUTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
* UNTIL 730 PM CDT * AT 638 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR JONESBORO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BROOKLAND...LAKE CITY AND MONETTE.
BE carefull in the junction of 155 and 55 in Arkans.....another problem
A powerful and tornadic storm cell is nearing Lake City, Arkansas.
Where do you guys get those radar images from?

Evening, cchs.

This program...I'm using the trial version of GRLevel3 which is essentially identical to the purchased version (but it terminates after 21 days; it is a trial version, after all).

The trial version is only a portion of what you truly get from GR3/GR2 ive had the software along with weathertap for almost 3 years now.I use weathertap for the wide variety of satelitte capabilities.
GRLevel3 is also great for building timeseries loops of vertical cross sections to do forensic studies...of downbursts for example. Not sure if all elevation angles are available real time in a single file, but the archives have it all.

Also fun to build a 3-D surface of the radar returns...very cool.
Wow, a LOT of lightning in Arkansas:

Well looks like you guys will be busy tonight. I am wind fatigued today. The past two weeks have been the most windy I can remember. My concerns to all those in these scarey 'nado zones - especially wildlife and outdoor critters.
Who wants to go fishing...or surfing? Sheesh...no thanx.

This is a large spread of clouds taller than 40 k feet. Lots of convection. This makes me think that most of the severe worries will stay a little north of the SPC moderate area in the forecast.

Not interested in fishing tomorrow...but surf -ohhh lala my beach Gomex/srq should be perfect....worked out the horses today, so maybe I can sneak in a session before work tomorrow - Sun rise! So excited the board's on the car. It's been too long since I got wet! Off to get horizontal - tomorrow's a long day G'night all - I think you will all be rather busy with the activity out there.
I'll wager that this will be spot on, though:

but surf -ohhh lala my beach Gomex/srq should be perfect

Oh dear. Do please be very careful. The GoM will be a bit messy for the next couple of days.

With the high tide and persistent southerly winds we have coastal flood concerns here in SE LA right now. 16 footers in the west GoM and shoaling when the wind turns to northerly all adds up to messy.
Buoy Station TAML1 - Tambour Bay, LA. Link

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): SE ( 130 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 17.1 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 19.0 kts
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.73 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.04 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 72.1 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 70.3 °F
LSU Earth Scan Lab..Link
could someone email me tellin how to add a pic by my name i tried n nothin works thanks,, hank
My uncle is evacuating his farm with my cousins just outside of Potosi, MO and heading back home to St. Louis hopefully. The Big River is right down the street from him and it is rising rapidly. Hopefully he can make it out.
So much flooding here in DFW.(Fort Worth) 9" today, still raining. As far as the tornado in Atlanta, our hearts go out to them. We had 2 deaths, my car was destroyed, and I had to push my boss up 4 flights of escalator over an open mall ice rink 50 ft up in the air over broken glass to get her out of the 4th floor garage (and she weighed 350 lbs at 72 years old). We ended up with all the ugly facades, ugly signage and deliapiidated buildings being torn down, and under new code, things are much much nicer. They never tore the Bank One down after the tornado, they dithered forever, and now it is expensive condos with an outrageous HOA due to insuring a building (36 stories) that is twisted 4" (it was 2 feet, but the "untwisted" it somehow. Crazy rich Bass family paid 20 million privately to untwist it, and then donated it to the City). Any sites set up for donations or help, or just the Red Cross?
Sorry for all your misfortune. I've suffered flood as well Tejano. My commiserations.
So we are looking at a disastrous flood and it is only mid march.

Its probably very difficult, and stuff seems important, but it is better to make it through these things alive. Thats all that matters.

With everyone off in Iraq I wonder what is going to be the disaster response? Doesn't the Guard usually handle this stuff?
The Guard did well handling basically 4 hurricanes in 2 months in Florida in 04 with us in Iraq. It is actually local up to state govts to handle situations such as flooding, severe wx, etc. What is the point of having local county or state government if the Feds have to be 1st responders to every situation?

They fell down on Katrina. Or at least our leaders did.

When 10 inches of rain can happen with a system they should be ready. This is huge.

But then Again they are not thinking they need help:

The Weather Service forecasts moderate flooding on the Mississippi and Missouri rivers this spring because of saturated soils in the Midwest and heavy snow packs to the north. But the recent storms were projected to push those rivers only to near flood stage Saturday

Still flooding has been consistently shown to be the most dangerous and costly situation.
check out these rainfall totals in Illinois and Missouri and Indy getting bad......wow...bad flooding...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 215 AM CDT WED MAR 19 2008 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EASTERN WEST FELICIANA PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA... THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF ST. FRANCISVILLE... * UNTIL 245 AM CDT * AT 210 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ST. FRANCISVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... WAKEFIELD AND SPILLMAN BY 225 AM CDT...
This Low just isn't moving fast enough......wow look at the moisture yet to fall in the wet areas........
Someone else is up! Hi Tampa. Three tornado warnings, two in -... Actually Mississippi and one in Louisiana!

Baton Rouge and around those parts. Its bad cause you know nobody is awake.
yep i just woke up my family lives Southern Indiana and they are really getting soaked....flooding in the Ohio valley is going to be severe.
JFlorida good morning where do you live at.
Uhh florida, heheh! in gainesville. At school now working late in the lab.
It sounds like we are getting close to tropical storm force winds outside....it is blowing
I thought you were in tampa.
I do live in Tampa WE as in Tampa.......
Oh ok - oh well back to work. Hope everyone out west is ok.
I'm up!! Local news is reporting power outages in La. Some rain has moved into Hancock Co, but for the rest of us on the Gulf,in Ms, we're waiting. The wind has been blowing for 3 days now, very humid, temps in the low 70's..........it's 70 right now, and I am hoping those temps are not a sign of what the summer will be like.
ok, i'm off to work, I'll try to come back and blog about current condtions, which, from the sound of things outside, is starting to go down hill....yipppeee!
179. HouseofGryffindor 8:16 AM EDT on March 19, 2008
We had very strong winds over night for some reason...


Good morning all. Just to let you know HOG, the reason for the strong winds overnight was that high pressure to our east and low pressure to our northwest are creating a tight pressure gradient. This pressure gradient creates friction and that friction is released in the form of strong winds. We will have one more day of strong winds here in South Florida before the front approaches and forces the high farther east into the Central Atlantic.
just a steady rain here in Biloxi......kinda uneventful
I will be very interested to see how unstable the atmosphere will become over Central and Southern Florida in advance of the approaching front. Seems like we will receive some much needed rainfall starting Thursday and lasting into Saturday WITHOUT severe weather. Some more good news for Floridians who want this drought to end. Lake Okeechobee continues to slowly inch higher as it has reached 10.20 feet. Thoughts?
GOM 120 Hour Water Surface Temperature Forecast Model Link
lt snow this morning,it may be spring starting tomorrow,but not going to show up up here for a while
father in law in centralia,il has riceived 11.6 inches of rain since late monday evening....lot of backroads closed....im going to talk to him more today...later
That is one strong Low moving out of Texas finally...
Found this realating to the Atlanta Tornado... It looks more like a hail shaft then anything else but.. It is interesting..

Link
nasty line of storms moving through alabama.
Good Morning Folks....Things are still relatively quiet this morning in the Florida Panhandle and the meager and unimpressive front line (so far) along the Southern Gulf coast is just passing through Mobile......We'll see what happens later in the morning with the daytime heating but the front is moving through pretty quickly down here so it may just end up being a brief wind/rain event (very brief) for this region.........
Gulf Loop Current and Surface Temperatures Link
CC; i wouldn't expect very much rain out of this next front. We are entering time of year when the parent low pressure tracks are further and further north and it usually gets very dry here in S. Florida. Unless another disturbance forms along this front in the GOM basically giving it a "shot in the arm", I just don't see it doing much for us. (I hope your'e right and we do get some rain but this one doesn't look like much for us at this point)
mornin
stormy for se today
195. Ivansrvivr 10:22 AM EDT on March 19, 2008
CC; i wouldn't expect very much rain out of this next front. We are entering time of year when the parent low pressure tracks are further and further north and it usually gets very dry here in S. Florida. Unless another disturbance forms along this front in the GOM basically giving it a "shot in the arm", I just don't see it doing much for us. (I hope your'e right and we do get some rain but this one doesn't look like much for us at this point)


I expect another low to develop in the GOM from this front Friday nite.
UNYSIS GFSx 10-day Link
SPC storm reports. Link
If the front does stall over Florida (over/near the Peninsula/Gulf) in a few days, then maybe it will squeeze out some much needed rain................
199. Patrap 10:31 AM EDT on March 19, 2008
UNYSIS GFSx 10-day Link


Patrap good morning, it does appear that another low does develop in the GOM from that GFS run.
Morning,..a lil Low is seen there out thru time.
well they are talking about a possible winter storm for us here in New England,on Monday or Tuesday originating from a small low forming in the Gulf,so the models do see that low.
Link


Will this mess make it to W central FL coast? The winds have really started picking up here within the hour here in Bradenton.
Tropics a Quiet,in the Hemisphere.

North Atlantic Storm Advisories

There is no tropical storm activity for this region.
North Atlantic Tropical Outlook North Atlantic
East Pacific Storm Advisories

There is no tropical storm activity for this region.
East Pacific Tropical Outlook East Pacific
Western Pacific Storm Advisories

There is no tropical storm activity for this region.
Western Pacific Tropical Outlook Western Pacific
Central Pacific Storm Advisories

There is no tropical storm activity for this region.
Central Pacific Tropical Outlook Central Pacific
Indian Ocean Storm Advisories

There is no tropical storm activity for this region
Thats alright Tampa,keep those shots coming,as a patriots fan,thats going to be what we hear for a long time,as far as the Rays they figure if they start enough brawls this year,they might distract the other team
As far as spring snowstorms we expect at least one each year.Models hinting at blocking pattern setting up in the Atlantic,should make the US weather interesting
Incredible totals...




Record flooding as well...




THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE BIG MUDDY RIVER NEAR MURPHYSBORO.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 9:45 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 25.8 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND RECORD FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 22.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 39.0 FEET BY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THEN BEGIN FALLING.
* IMPACT...AT 38.0 FEET...THIS FLOOD WILL EXCEED THE HIGHEST STAGE ON
RECORD



...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...THE FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES FOR
THE BIG MUDDY RIVER NEAR PLUMFIELD.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 9:45 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 22.4 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND RECORD FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 20.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE RISING TO NEAR 36.5 FEET BY
FRIDAY MORNING THEN BEGIN FALLING.


...FORECAST FLOODING CHANGED FROM MAJOR TO RECORD SEVERITY FOR THE

FOLLOWING RIVER IN MISSOURI...
MERAMEC RIVER NEAR EUREKA AFFECTING JEFFERSON AND ST. LOUIS
COUNTIES

MERAMEC RIVER AT VALLEY PARK AFFECTING JEFFERSON AND ST. LOUIS
COUNTIES

...FORECAST FLOODING INCREASED FROM MAJOR TO RECORD SEVERITY...
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE MERAMEC RIVER NEAR EUREKA
* UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.
* AT 9:30 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 20.6 FEET.
* RECORD FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 18.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...CREST BETWEEN 42 TO 44 FEET SATURDAY. THE RIVER WILL
FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE SUNDAY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
* IMPACT...AT 42.9 FEET...THIS IS THE RECORD FLOOD LEVEL THAT WAS
REACHED ON DECEMBER 6 1982.



...FORECAST FLOODING INCREASED FROM MAJOR TO RECORD SEVERITY...
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE MERAMEC RIVER AT VALLEY PARK
* UNTIL MONDAY.
* AT 9:45 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 18.0 FEET.
* RECORD FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...CREST BETWEEN 39 TO 41 FEET SATURDAY. THE RIVER WILL
FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE MONDAY MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 39.7 FEET...39.73 - FLOOD OF RECORD ON DECEMBER 6, 1982


Since I live just 2 miles away from the Meramec River, I will be able to easily see what record flooding looks like (I think my house is safe from it).
I live a couple miles away from the Meramec also and have a lot of friends who live in the Meramec river valley in Fenton. I told a lot of them to keep an eye on the river and if it gets close to them that they should pack up and leave. I'm going to go around and film the waters up and down the Meramec Thursday and Friday when it gets close to its record stage.
9 Dead, 4 Missing in Central US Storm
AP foreign, Wednesday March 19 2008 By BETSY TAYLOR

Associated Press Writer

PIEDMONT, Mo. (AP) - Flooding forced hundreds of people to flee their homes and closed scores of roads Wednesday across the nation's midsection as a storm system poured as much as a foot of rain on the region. Nine deaths were linked to the weather and four people were missing.

The National Weather Service posted flood and flash flood warnings from Texas to Pennsylvania on Wednesday, and evacuations were under way in parts of Missouri, Arkansas and Ohio.

Heavy rain began falling Monday and just kept coming. A foot of rain had fallen at Mountain Home, Ark., and at Cape Girardeau in southeast Missouri, where officials said street flooding marooned some residents in their homes. The weather service said 6.2 inches had fallen at Evansville, Ind.

Scott and Marilyne Peterson and their son, Scott Jr., scurried out of their home near Piedmont after seeing water rise 3 feet in five minutes. They had just enough time to grab essentials and their dog.

``You didn't have time to worry,'' Scott Peterson Sr. said. ``You just grab what you can and go and you're glad the people are OK.''

The rain in Missouri was expected to finally end by late Wednesday as the weather system crawled toward the northeast.

Four deaths were linked to the flooding in Missouri, and five people were killed in a highway wreck in heavy rain in Kentucky. Searches were under way in Texas for a teenager washed down a drainage pipe and in Missouri for a man missing in a creek, and two people were missing in Arkansas after their vehicles were swept away by rushing water.

An estimated 300 houses and businesses were flooded in Piedmont, a town of 2,000 residents on McKenzie Creek. Dozens of people were rescued by boat.

Outside St. Louis, the Meramec River was expected to crest 10 to 15 feet above flood stage at some spots, threatening towns like Eureka and Valley Park, where residents were urged to evacuate. The Missouri River was at or near flood stage through much of central and eastern Missouri.

The James River was approaching record levels of more than 33 feet above normal at the small Ozarks town of Galena west of Branson, flooding a commercial strip and numerous homes near the town, Stone County emergency management chief Tom Martin said. The canoeing and fishing center of about 450 residents sits mainly on a hill above the river.

Flooding was widespread in Arkansas, washing out some highways and leading to evacuations of residents in parts of Baxter, Madison, Sharp counties, said Tommy Jackson, a spokesman for the Arkansas Department of Emergency Management. The Highway and Transportation Department reported state roads blocked in 16 counties.

The Spring River in northeast Arkansas rose at a rate of 6 inches per hour, carrying debris that included full-size trees.

Two motorists were missing in Arkansas after their vehicles were washed away by high water, authorities said.

Authorities in southwest Missouri were searching for another man reported swept away by rushing water. ``He was going down the creek screaming and hollering,'' Lawrence County emergency management chief Mike Rowe said.

Emergency officials in Mesquite, Texas, searched for a 14-year-old boy apparently swept away as he and a friend played in a creek. The friend swam to safety, authorities said.

Up the Ohio Valley, widespread flooding was reported in parts of southwest Indiana and parts of Ohio, and schools were closed in parts of western Kentucky because of flooded roads.

``We've got water rising everywhere,'' said Jeff Korb, president of the Vanderbugh County, Ind., commissioners. ``We've got more than 70 roads under water.''

Residents of South Lebanon, Ohio - a town of about 2,800 people - were urged to get out as the Little Miami River was expected to crest at 28 feet, 11 feet above flood stage and the third highest level since measurements began in 1889, said Frank Young, emergency management director in Warren County.

``That would put half of South Lebanon under water,'' Young said.

Key roads were closed in the Cincinnati area, where water 4 feet deep was reported in businesses in the suburb of Sharonwille, police said. Police contacted at least nine businesses and warned them not to open Wednesday. Northeast of Cincinnati, two members of a cross-country team had to be rescued from a rain-swollen creek after falling in.

The Ohio River at Cincinnati was expected to rise about 2 feet above flood stage by Friday, enough to flood some neighborhoods outside the city.
anyone herd any early predictions on 2008 hurricane season acticity??
email me if you have any thanks I mean 2008 hurricane predictions
u here pony
What totally mystifies me, is why my local "crap" newspaper has three sentences regarding the flooding from yesterday and NO mention of the the potential mess we are seeing today.
Subtly media is beginning to suppress natural disaster news....too much of it.
Hey folks good afternoon hope eveyone is having a great day just wanted to post the BOM update on whats happening with la nina.

On this update which i agree with they say la nina has indeed begun to loose punch and they also make note that el nino is rather unlikely as of right now despite the warming off South America.It will be interesting to see what happens in the coming months.You can view all the ENSO updates on my links page which ive updated includeing links to CPC and Australia.

Have a fantastic day! Adrian
Both coasts windblown to shreds-Atlantic-check back on Sat for clean swell, Gulf,well, check hourly beginning Thur.
franck thanks for your comment. It just seems odd to me... there was NO mention of the Atlanta tornado - which to me was odd, considering how much money it will coast, and then this weather we are seeing yesterday & today --Nada off to the kitchen for a while bbl
several models converging on a serious mid-atlantic snowstorm for next week,could be a big one for virginia and north carolina,and maybe delaware and new jersey.STill pretty early
check hourly --wish I could, today was my day off, rest of the week I'm at the barns with the four-leggeds --Which this wind is beginning to get old. There's nothing worse seeing good south swell get blown out and working w/horses in this weather is high end stress. Nothing worse then riding one thorough bred polo horse, towing one on each side and trying to get a track workout done with them spooking in every direction when the gust blow stuff around. You'd think they'd figure out the palm or leaves will not eat them by now...but instinct is instinct. OK now I must chain myself to the kitchen sink. BBL
Hurricane 23
With a weakening La Nina and hurricane season only 2 months away. Could you see neutral conditions or near neutral by the heart of the hurricane season? This question is not only directed toward hurricane 23 but to anyone who has an educated opinion on this subject.
Tropical Invest 91B

Information based on data through 1900 UTC WED 19 Mar 2008

Tropical Invest 91B is located near 07N-75E drifting towards the west. Estimated surface winds are near 20 knots and minimum central pressure is near 1007 mb. Vertical wind shear is well below 10 knots and sea surface temperatures are near 30C.

The center was difficult to locate due its poor definition. QuikSCAT, microwave imagery and model data showed the center located near 06N-76E, but recent model data and satellite derived winds from CIMSS through 1800 UTC showed the center located near 07N/75E. Infrared satellite imagery through 1900 UTC confirms the location of the low level center. Another distinct observation made was a mid-level rotation identified on infrared imagery located further west of the low level center and model data of 500 mb strongly agrees with this. Surface winds were estimated using a QuikSCAT pass through 1328 UTC, low level derived winds and model data through 1800 UTC. Few or no surface observations were available for the area. Pressure based on the GFS model run. Infrared satellite imagery showed a relatively defined and organized system with most of the thunderstorm clusters rotating on the west side of the distinct mid-level circulation. The system is moving within a favorable environment with warm SSTs, low wind shear, and distinct equatorial outflow. These conditions should allow the formation of a tropical depression in the next 24-48 hrs. Most global models are in fair agreement that a weak tropical cyclone will form in the Eastern Arabian Sea, move towards the northwest over the next 5 days, then recurve towards the northeast under the influence of digging trough in 6 days or 144 hrs.

by W456

Thanks Stormw. We could be in a for bumpy ride this hurricane season if that materializes right?
Tropical Invest 95P

Information based on data through 2000 UTC WED 19 Mar 2008

Tropical Invest 95P is located near 17.5S-163.5E remaining stationary. Estimated surface winds are near 30 knots and minimum central pressure is near 1004 mb. Vertical wind shear is 10 knots and sea surface temperature is 29-30C.

Position was based on infrared imagery through 2000 UTC which based the center on the cloud system. Further adjustments were implemented using model data. Winds were estimated from SSM/I microwave sensor in conjunction with Dvorak classifications, where 0.40 spiral gave a T-no of 2.0. Pressure based on model data. Infrared imagery showed a well organized system producing clusters of vigorous convection in and around the low level center. The environment around the disturbance appears favorable for the development of a tropical depression in the next 48 hrs with anticyclonic outflow, warm SSTs and low wind shear. Furthermore, the system has shown signs of development on satellite imagery. The global models are in agreement on development but are split on the movement of the system. The CMC keeps the system meandering and making a clockwise loop in the vicinity of the current location, while the GFS develops a much deeper cyclone and moves the system slowly southeastward. Based on the 700 mb steering flow, the CMC seems more reasonable at this point.

by W456

Soooo windy. Just had a gust to 43 which is really weird to see because it's completely sunny w/o a cloud in sight! Hopefully this will knock out the rest of the pollen in the trees so the allergies won't last long. lol
Another impressive disturbance - 94S. This disturbance is under light to moderate anticyclonic shear and over warm SSTs. A QuikSCAt pass from 1333 UTC showed a most define LLCC.

One of the uses of CloudSat


94S CloudSat pass at 0931 UTc this morning

Also notice that a great deal of organization has taken place between this visible shot and the one at 1900 UTC.









For those saying its quiet in the tropics, you should be living in P Rico and the Northern Leeward islands right now.... huge swells continuing to buid here in St Martin, we are on 'Alerte Rouge".

"THIS COASTAL FLOODING IS THE GREATEST NON TROPICAL CYCLONE RELATED SWELL EVENT EXPERIENCED IN THE LOCAL AREA SINCE THE PERFECT STORM OF 1991. RESIDENTS AND LOCAL INTERESTS SHOULD EXPECT MAJOR BEACH EROSION...AS WELL AS STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO PIERS...BOARDWALKS AND STRUCTURES DIRECTLY ADJACENT TO THE COASTLINE

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=sju&wwa=high%20surf%20warning
Heavy rain fell across N.C today I got about 1.75inches if rain.(Hopefuly the severe weather will not survive the mountains of N.C.Severe thunderstorm watch was issued for a few mountain counties.)

Spring snow? WXII12 and Fox8 are two local news stations here.Both are saying chance of snow Easter night and Monday for a good portion of N.C.
This might be a stupid question for all but, does anyone think the National Weather Service issues alot more Tornado Warnings that may not merit a warning. Has technology got so good that maybe a third level of alert is needed between a watch and a warning. Just an observation. But, i too would rather be safe than sorry.
Evening all. I saw on our local weather this a.m. (West Palm, Fl.), on the extended forecast, that lows next week may dip to the low 50's. Does that look like it may hold up?
I thought tornado warnings were only issued when one was sighted....
or detected on dopplar
Most warnings are issued from doppler possiblities i believe.
Two Buccaneers and Three Moe's....A Full House!
GeoffreyWPB This is the extended forcast for Tampa, don't see anything real cool.

Monday Night through Wednesday
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs in the mid 70s.
Thanks Tampa..thought it sounded iffy for the last week in March...
The 18z GFS has the Monday storm missing the east coast and floating off into the sea...CMC and ECMWF have trended towards this solution in the past few runs. I know, a lot of things can change in 138 hours, but I thought that this was worth mentioning. GFS has shown consistency with the out to sea theory so far and the other models are now showing signs of agreeing (at least for the time being, anyway).

From the NYC Discussion Link

MODELS INDICATE CYCLOGENESIS OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD BUT TRACK OF THIS POTENTIALLY POTENT SYSTEM
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. RECENT ECMWF RUNS HAVE SHOWN A LATE SEASON
SNOWSTORM IMPACTING THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST REGIONS.
HOWEVER..THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF RUN HAS BACKED OFF THIS SCENARIO IN
FAVOR OF A TRACK FURTHER OFF THE COAST. LATEST 12Z GFS AND
CANADIAN RUNS ALSO DEPICT A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN MINIMAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA.

From the HPC long term discussion Link

...POTENTIAL FOR LATE SEASON SNOWSTORM FOR THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION...

MODELS CONT TO CONVERGE BUT WITH A WIDE SPREAD ON EAST COAST/W
ATLC CYCLOGENESIS DAY 5...WITH THE 00Z GFS AND GEFS MEAN TRENDING
STRONGLY TOWARD THE DEVELOPED SOLUTION INDICATED BY THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. SEVERAL OF THE
00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE AS INTENSE AS THE 00Z ECMWF WITH THIS
LOW...WITH A SIMILAR TRACK FROM SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS TO EAST OF
THE NORTH ATLANTIC BENCHMARK.


The HPC Official forecast has trended a bit to the east to reflect the change in model consensus.
Day 5 (Monday) = over Cape Hatteras NC
Day 6 (Tuesday) = southeast of Cape Cod
Well the waves are filling in a bit better, seems most of the swell by passed SRQ/Tampa and went to the panhandle. Wind has finally settled to 15mph South, gomex is 69 degrees at my home beach. Wish some of the rain, ...some of the rain other states have received would find it's way to WFL, backyard is so dry, especially from all this wind
tropicaldan - yeah I picked up on that wave action - friend said PR was going macker - I'll bet there are some dudes packing up their boards right now. Had no idea the weather was that strongly affecting you guys in the carib. I can't remember a March this windy --least since I have been working with animals that are so affected by it. (horses)
surfmom

Lots of surfers profiting from the waves as they are rare in St Martin, but the Gendarmerie on the French side is ordering people out of the water for their own protection.

Those used to bodyboarding in the usual 2 feet swells are out riding 12 feet monsters - dunno if they really know what they risk there.
So far just a lot of wind for N Fla. For those of you down south - on the sat there is a bit of a more developed front. You may see some action tonight.
this map is from accuweather

heres a sneak peak outlook map:
*dotted areas are formation zones

where the map i this post????
oh well


here is the map

Link
Tropicaldan, yes - people don't understand heavy water. I was clueless till wilma, took one ride that scared me to death - if you don't know what you are doing or really fit --you are dead, or you put other people at risk to save you. I don't do big water, and happily my son is smart about it too. He did go into Wilma a boy and when he came out --he had a different look in his eye, it changed him --like a warrior
I'm off, got to deal with horses and wind...again tomorrow. Other people have it worse tonight so really no complaints. Adios
Thanks taz. Wonder if we will get a tropical something early?


Anyway TONIGHT the NAM short term has a hot spot developing on this front near Tampa Late and tomorow AM. So TURN ON YOUR RADIOS before bed.

Especially if you are in Georgia or South Carolina!! It could get bad there.

Also the GFS has a storm forming in the GOM later after the front stalls. Near Friday/Sat.
Here is an update on the flooding situation:

13 Dead, 3 Missing in Central US Storm
By BETSY TAYLOR - 1 hour ago

PIEDMONT, Mo. (AP) - Residents of low-lying towns stacked sandbags or grabbed belongings and evacuated Wednesday after a foot of rain pushed rivers and creeks out of their banks in the nation's midsection. At least 13 deaths had been linked to the weather, and three people were missing.

Record or near-record flood crests were forecast at several towns in Missouri. Flooding was reported in large areas of Arkansas and parts of southern Illinois, southern Indiana and southwestern Ohio, and schools were closed in parts of western Kentucky because of flooded roads.

"We've got water rising everywhere," said Jeff Korb, president of the Vanderbugh County, Ind., commissioners.

The National Weather Service posted flood and flash flood warnings from Texas to Pennsylvania.

After two days, rain had finally stopped falling by Wednesday afternoon in much of Missouri and Arkansas as the weather system crawled toward the Northeast, drenching the Ohio Valley and spreading snow over parts of northern New England. A parallel band of locally heavy rain stretched from Alabama and Georgia to the mid-Atlantic states.

Atlanta police closed some downtown streets in case the stormy weather knocked down more broken glass and debris from buildings damaged by Friday's tornado.

In Ohio and other areas, the rain fell on ground already saturated from heavy snowfall less than two weeks ago.

A foot of rain had fallen in sections of southern Illinois and at Mountain Home, Ark., and Cape Girardeau, Mo., while 6.2 inches fell at Evansville, Ind., the weather service said.

Five deaths were linked to the flooding in Missouri, five people were killed in a highway wreck in heavy rain in Kentucky and a 65-year-old Ohio woman appeared to have drowned while checking on a sump pump in her home. In southern Illinois, two bodies were found hours after floodwaters swept a pickup truck off a rural road.

Searches were under way in Texas for a teenager washed down a drainage pipe, and two people were missing in Arkansas after their vehicles were swept away by rushing water.

Searchers in Missouri found the body of Mark G. Speir Jr., 19, on Wednesday about 2 miles downstream from where he was reported swept into a creek the previous evening.

"He was going down the creek screaming and hollering," Lawrence County emergency management chief Mike Rowe said.

An estimated 300 houses and businesses were flooded in Piedmont, a town of 2,000 residents on McKenzie Creek. Dozens of people were rescued by boat.

Outside St. Louis, the Meramec River was threatening towns including Eureka and Valley Park, where Chandra Webster's kids ran bags of toys and clothes to the car while she moved boxes of belongings to the second floor and her husband moved furniture out of harm's way.

"It's a lot of work, but it's worth it to save your stuff," Webster, 34, said Wednesday. "In '82 we lost everything when I was a little girl. I don't want to put my kids through that."

The Meramec hit a record 39.7 feet that year; flood stage is only 16 feet. A levee completed just three years ago is designed to hold a flood of 43 feet, three feet above the crest forecast for later this week.

Valley Park alderman Steve Drake helped fill sandbags.

"We've got everybody working together," Drake said. "It's going to be interesting."

Gov. Matt Blunt said he was seeking a federal disaster declaration for 70 of Missouri's 114 counties and the city of St. Louis.

Widespread flooding in Arkansas had washed out some highways and led to evacuations in some areas, said Tommy Jackson, a spokesman for the Arkansas Department of Emergency Management. The Highway and Transportation Department reported state roads blocked in 16 counties.

Some residents of southern Illinois had to evacuate. In Marion, firefighters in some cases used their own fishing boats to rescued 13 residents of the city's housing authority.

Key roads were closed in the Cincinnati area, where water 4 feet deep was reported in businesses in the suburb of Sharonville, police said.

Ohio rescue workers were busy helping people out of cars swamped by the flooding.

"The biggest problem has been people driving into floodwater," said Frank Young, emergency management director in Warren County. "There are a lot of stupid people. When that sign says 'Road closed, high water,' that's what it means."



Here are some pictures:


No JFV. I like his name but I dont vist their site much.
Incrediable flooding..


There is some pics of the mess coming in the WU photo gallery.
hokay... Ran across an interesting item about how the US EastCoast is experiencing progressively increasing wave heights due to increasing hurricane intensity. Unfortunately it's from a mass-media news article that gives neither the title of the research paper nor the lead authors.

So does anyone have access to the Journal of Coastal Research? Or run across a better written article which at least names the authors or the paper's title?
its a pretty good article, rather technical.

SUMMARY AND DISCUSSION

There has not been a statistically significant change in the winter significant wave heights measured by the three Atlantic buoys, waves that were generated by extratropical storms.

The waves during the summer hurricane seasons, recorded by the three Atlantic buoys, document that there has been a trend of increasing significant wave heights since at least the mid-1970s, with the trends being statistically significant at the 95% confidence level.

Boy, it sure looks as if the GFS is slightly developing a blob over the Yucatan / 850 vort and taking it into Florida Sunday.
could be one never knows
happy to wake up this AM to RAIN - at last! looks like just a morning spritz, but it was lovely to wake up to the sounds of rain pelting the roof. Hope the winds lays down today, I've had enough of it for this month.

Sweet Spring has arrived..Ahhhhhhhhh!
devasting waves lashing Saint Kitts....some the highest I've seen since Hurricane Lenny 9 yrs ago
Excellent Curve band cloud

That blob forecast in the gulf,may be our Tuesday snowstorm here in new england Tuesday,did someone say its spring?
weather 456 - where did you get that infor regarding St Kitts? Is this considered odd weather to cause such waves?
A blob in the Gulf - Amazing --will this be a wave maker? hummmmmmm guess it bears watching
272. surfmom 9:16 AM AST on March 20, 2008
weather 456 - where did you get that infor regarding St Kitts? Is this considered odd weather to cause such waves?
\

I live there. Also its not odd during this time of the year but these waves are huge. Really some of highest since our last near hit by Lenny.
Thanks Weather456, also you are soooo lucky to live where you do......I think of myself as a Caribbean queen, even though I live on the Gomex. Just love the carib --mainland life is just too intense, too much rapido -although you don't get much surf I imagine. I guess the waves are of hurricane height?
off to work g'day all
great to see the rain this morning. It looked like it was just a light rain so I was surprised to see my rain guage had 0.85 inches when I checked it this morning. Any updates on the blob by the Yucatan anyone?
236. TampaSpin 10:42 PM GMT on March 19, 2008
This might be a stupid question for all but, does anyone think the National Weather Service issues alot more Tornado Warnings that may not merit a warning. Has technology got so good that maybe a third level of alert is needed between a watch and a warning. Just an observation. But, i too would rather be safe than sorry.


The new dual pole radars will hopefully offer some improvement. The researchers will be able to get a lot more information from the hydrometeors and make better correlations to when nados form. Is it going to vastly improve the detection of real vs maybe nados? I think that is yet to be determined. It will greatly improve rain-rate, hail size, and precip type. detection.

In the next 5 years all of the WSR-88 radars are scheduled to be replaced by the new dual-pole ones.

See details about them at: Link

As for a 3rd level of warning...I doubt the general public would be able to digest that without some confusion and confusion in this business could lead to very undesirable results.
See this article about global warming making the trees bloom and birds arrive earlier than 20 to 30 years ago. Link

We really need to do something about this and right now! This is so horrible that the trees are not conforming to traditionally scheduled festival weeks. Every one needs to completely give up all energy use unless it is a non-emitter so the birds do not come back 2 weeks earlier than they did during the last cooler cycle in the multi-decadal...WAIT! What?

20 - 30 years ago the trees bloomed later...SO? This is "proof" that energy facism is needed? Sure a few delicate species are in the wrong locations and might not adapt...right...how did those species come to exist anyway? Oh yeah, they are nothing more than mutations of another species, but more suited to their environment.

Hmmm. OK. So what is the problem, again? (Love the AP stories about the horrible effects of GW...always looking for that item to strike fear in our hearts, like trees and birds...snicker;)
Good Afternoon....


Today is the official start of the spring season. The vernal equinox began 0548 UTC or 0148 EDT/AST this morning and will end on June 20 at 2359 UTC or 1959 EDT/AST.

....SYNOPSIS....

GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W....

The western flank of a mid-upper ridge over the Southwest Atlantic is maintaining pronounce southwesterly winds aloft over the Gulf Region. A surface cold front is embedded under this southwesterly flow of moisture from extreme southeastern Mexico at 17N/95W across the Yucatan, the Southeastern Gulf and The Florida Peninsula, before entering the Atlantic. Visible imagery showed a swath of multilayer cloudiness and showers within 120 nmi behind the leading edge frontal ropes clouds north of 22N. A much broader zone of cloudiness and showers lies across the Yucatan Peninsula, and Northern Central America, partly due to enhanced lift along the terrain.

Meanwhile, the associated high pressure ridge has build across the Southern United States, Mainland Mexico, and into the Gulf behind the front. This high is producing exceptionally fair skies across the area, 20 knots of offshore flow and 7-10 ft northwest swells over open waters behind the front.

A very deep layer ridge extending from a 1023 mb high at the surface to a 200 mb ridge in the upper levels. A cold front continues from the Central Florida Peninsula and surges northeastward along the coastal waters of the Eastern United States. The front more or less surges around the flow of the ridge. Dry air is noted elsewhere near the heart of the ridge with light surface winds and scattered stratocumulus clouds. The pressure gradient between this ridge and a large low pressure area in the far North Atlantic is generating 20-30 knot winds and extremely large open ocean swells of 22 ft which are impacting the Northern Caribbean. See Caribbean heading.

CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION....

A broad zone of broken to overcast cloudiness and showers are seen along Central America from 87W to 92W north of 15N. This activity is associated with a surface cold front. Weak upper ridging and dry air is seen across the remainder of the Caribbean, hindering much vertical development of cloudiness with only broken and dusty stratocumulus clouds embedded within the surface flow. A moderate high pressure system is maintaining a somewhat tight pressure gradient across the North Central Atlantic which is producing large open ocean waves. These waves are being directed towards the Northeast Caribbean in the form of 16-20 ft swells. Because of this, marine conditions remain hazardous, and swimmers and small craft should avoid these waters in the meantime. Additionally, structural damages to ports and piers are possible. These swells are less significant within the Caribbean Sea where 8-9 ft seas everywhere and near 13 ft along the Colombian Coast/SW Caribbean Sea.

by W456
Invest 95P, on the verge of becoming a tropical depression. Excellent satellite signiture with expanding cruve banding. Excellent outflow under and upper anticyclone in the southern quadrants.