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At Least 78 Deaths in China Tornado; Midwest Dodges Major Damage

By: Bob Henson 4:29 PM GMT on June 23, 2016

A tornado struck the outskirts of the east-central Chinese city of Yancheng during a powerful thunderstorm on Thursday afternoon, killing at least 78 people and causing widespread destruction. Yancheng is an urban area of more than 8 million people with a city-center population of about 1.6 million, located in the coastal plain of China’s Jiangsu Province about 200 miles north of Shanghai. Chinese state media are reporting nearly 500 injuries, with 200 critical. The storm also produced hail and heavy rain.


Figure 1. Residents pass houses destroyed in the aftermath of a tornado that hit Funing county, in Yancheng city in eastern China's Jiangsu Province on Thursday, June 23, 2016. A powerful tornado killed dozens and destroyed large numbers of buildings Thursday in the eastern Chinese province of Jiangsu, state media reported. Image credit: Color China Photo via AP.


Figure 2. A villager stands near houses destroyed in the aftermath of a tornado that hit Funing county in Yancheng city in eastern China's Jiangsu Province on Thursday, June 23, 2016. Image credit: Color China Photo via AP.


Figure 3. Himiwari-8 satellite image from 0600Z on June 23, 2016 (2:00 am Thursday EDT, or 2:00 pm Thursday local time in Yancheng, China). A band of intense thunderstorms stretched more than 600 miles across central and northeastern China. The apparent tornado struck the Yancheng area around 2:30 pm local time Thursday. The coldest cloud tops associated with the Yancheng thunderstorm (blue and green colors] span about 250 to 300 miles (400-480 km]. Image credit: CSU/CIRA/RAMMB, courtesy Japanese Meteorological Agency.

Another deadly result of the Mei-yu front
Intense storms are common along the Mei-yu (or baiu) front, which typically persists for a few weeks in late spring and early summer. This semi-permanent feature extends from eastern China across Taiwan into the Pacific south of Japan, associated with the southwest monsoon that pushes northward each spring and summer. The AMS Glossary notes: “The mei-yu/baiu front is very significant in the weather and climate of southeast Asia as it serves as the focus for persistent heavy convective rainfall associated with mesoscale convective complexes (MCCs) or mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) that propagate eastward.” A number of studies have found that the Mei-yu rainfall tends to be particularly heavy in the summer following an El Niño event.

On June 1, 2015, China experienced its worst peacetime maritime disaster on record, as 442 people died when a cruise ship capsized on the Yangtze River during an intense Mei-yu thunderstorm. Although a tornado struck about five miles away, an official report found that a strong microburst was most likely responsible for the capsizing. Similarly, it may take time to determine how much of the damage in Yancheng was related to tornadic activity as opposed to any downbursts that may have occurred. As shown in the map below, eastern China is one of the more tornado-prone parts of Eurasia.


Figure 4. The relative likelihood that the atmosphere would support tornado production within grid boxes of 2° latitude and longitude, as estimated from model-generated atmospheric profiles. The scale is logarithmic; a value of -2.0 (orange) corresponds to 15 six-hour periods per year that are tornado-favorable, and the likelihood increases or decreases by a factor of 10 for every change of 1.0 on the axis at bottom. Image credit: Courtesy Harold Brooks, NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory. An earlier version of this graphic appears in Brooks et al., “The spatial distribution of severe thunderstorm and tornado environments from global reanalysis data,” Atmospheric Research 67-68 (2003).

Widespread wind damage from Wednesday night’s storms
NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has logged more than 130 preliminary reports of high wind stretching from Illinois to North Carolina in the wake of a fast-moving thunderstorm complex that swept along a surface front parallel to a strong upper-level jet stream late Wednesday. Although far-flung, the high-wind episode does not appear to have been exceptionally destructive. In order to place an event as a derecho in the NWS Storm Data archive, wind damage and/or wind gusts of at least 50 knots (57 mph) must extend along a band at least 250 miles long, with at least three reports of gusts reaching 65 knots (74 mph) separated by at least 40 miles. Most of the reports on the SPC log do not yet indicate wind speeds, so we don’t yet know if this event’s winds will be strong enough to qualify. The number of wind reports is also on the low side for a derecho, according to Jon Erdman (weather.com). As of late Thursday morning, SPC logged 19 preliminary tornado reports, all from a string of supercell storms that intensified just before nightfall across north-central Illinois. No major damage or injuries were reported from the twisters, although one storm chaser drove directly into a tornado.


Figure 5. Reports of severe weather logged by the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center as of 11:44 AM CDT Thursday, June 21, 2016, for the period from 8:00 AM CDT Wednesday through 8:00 AM CDT Thursday.

The most intense storms on Wednesday were suppressed until late afternoon by a cap of very warm air several miles above the surface. Once they formed, they congealed fairly quickly into a broken area of severe storms (see embedded tweet at bottom) that produced lots of wind and heavy rain but not much large hail. There were just 14 reports of severe hail on Wednesday, with only three reports of hail of at least 2” diameter (and those were from storms in Minnesota separate from the fast-moving complex later that night).

More severe weather is on the agenda for Thursday, although the odds of significant severe storms appear a bit lower than on Wednesday. NOAA/SPC has placed parts of the central Appalachians and upper Ohio Valley under an enhanced risk of severe weather for Thursday afternoon and evening, with a slight risk extending from most of Kentucky to the Virginia/North Carolina coast. A few severe storms may also pop up in eastern Colorado. On Friday and Saturday, a strong upper-level low moving across southern Canada may generate intense storms along a cold front as it moves from Montana to Minnesota.


Figure 6. Infrared satellite image of Invest 95L in the northwest Caribbean at 1615Z (12:15 PM EDT] Thursday, June 23, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Invest 95L forms in northwest Caribbean
A disorganized area of disturbed weather moving slowly through the northwest Caribbean was designated as Invest 95L on Thursday morning. The disturbance is pushing heavy rains toward northern Belize and the southeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. There's no time for 95L to develop much before it moves ashore, but it may have a brief window to organize somewhat on Friday during a short westward trek across the southern Bay of Campeche. A sprawling upper-level ridge over the southern United States should inhibit 95L from making any dramatic moves northward toward the Gulf of Mexico. In its 8 AM EDT Thursday tropical weather outlook, the NOAA National Hurricane Center gave 95L a 10% chance of development over the next two to five days.

We'll be taking a closer look on Friday at short- and long-term prospects for tropical cyclone development in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean.

Bob Henson



Tornado Severe Weather Extreme Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

hmm

not a peep about 95L in the blog thats new

For invest 95L?

Quoting 2. IDTH:



Addendum on 95L coming shortly. We'll have more to say about it tomorrow.
Thanks for this update. With a strong tornado striking in the middle of a densely populated neighborhood, obviously one is enough to wreak havoc... Pop. Density Yancheng - China. From last blog :
96 W (Phillipines, South China Sea) xx/xx/xx :
Thank You for the Update; so far so good in terms of no tornadoes this morning as the system pushes to the East:

last3hours Reports Graphic

From last blog

Oh wow 95L just saying if 95L become Earl and future 96L/GFS storm become Fiona that would be two more early records broken
Damn this season is really going


Btw guys about a week ago or a little over a week ago GFS also predicted this system to form and become a storm but as time when on GFS started pushing back a little bit then dropped it and GFS was the only one to catch this one

Good job GFS for catching it it's only too bad you dropped
Thanks for the update, Bob. Nothing much going on here. It is actually raining. Again.
12. IDTH
Just for comparison. 2005 vs 2016



95L. Is stalled this AM
Probably already posted, but

000
NOUS42 KNHC 231331
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT THU 23 JUNE 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z JUNE 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-028

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (BAY OF CAMPECHE)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71.................FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 24/1800Z.....................................A. 25/1130Z
B. AFXXX 01CCA INVEST .............B. AFXXX 0205A CYCLONE
C. 24/1500Z..................................... C. 25/0900Z
D. 19.5N 94.0W...............................D. 20.5N 96.5W
E. 24/1730Z TO 24/2130Z.............E. 25/1100Z TO 25/1500Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT......................F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

$$
JWP
GFS update brings the Early July storm into southern Texas. It is also weaker in this prediction than it has been in other predictions before this one (pressure of 1005)
Quoting 15. tigerdeF:

GFS update brings the Early July storm into southern Texas. It is also weaker in this prediction than it has been in other predictions before this one (pressure of 1005)


Also worth noting that the "landfall" is expected to be the midnight leading into June 7th
My Eumetsat image of the day - Desert dust wrapping around Med. front :
Quoting 14. JrWeathermanFL:

Probably already posted, but

000
NOUS42 KNHC 231331
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0930 AM EDT THU 23 JUNE 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z JUNE 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-028

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (BAY OF CAMPECHE)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 24/1800Z A. 25/1130Z
B. AFXXX 01CCA INVEST B. AFXXX 0205A CYCLONE
C. 24/1500Z C. 25/0900Z
D. 19.5N 94.0W D. 20.5N 96.5W
E. 24/1730Z TO 24/2130Z E. 25/1100Z TO 25/1500Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

$$
JWP


I saw it 1st has I was the 1st too see that and posted it in the last blog
vis. could be some rough weather near cancun due to 95. pretty strong rain band setting up
Quoting 16. tigerdeF:



Also worth noting that the "landfall" is expected to be the midnight leading into June 7th


June 7? Don't you mean July 7th?
21. 7sUn
There was also tornado (tornadoes) in Serbia near Pancevo (near Belgrade) 20.06.2016 Link Link Link Link Link
We could be seeing Danielle 2.0 tomorrow aka TS Earl.
Quoting 22. NCHurricaneTracker69:

We could be seeing Danielle 2.0 tomorrow aka TS Earl.


Agreed this one seem too have come out of no where
Quoting 2. IDTH:



I see one major difference: whereas majority of GFS ensemble members predicted the formation of Danielle, they have not been keen on developing Invest 95L. And GFS ensemble generally fared the best overall in predicting the formation of Danielle. I think the 10/10% assessment of NHC is correct.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
101 PM AST THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Mid to upper level ridge will remain in place across
the Northeastern Caribbean today. However TUTT low across the
Tropical Atlantic will retrogress westwards over the area by
Friday while slowly weakening. This pattern in the meantime will
support mild cap inversion across the forecast area therefore
limiting convective development and the transport of trade wind
showers.

In the low levels...strong high pressure ridge spread across
Central Atlantic will remain the dominant feature for the next
several days. This will help maintain moderate easterly trade
winds which will continue to aid in transporting light to moderate
trade winds showers across the region especially during the late
evening and early morning hours.

A TUTT induced low to mid level trough now across the Northern
Leewards will shift across the region over the next few days in
tandem with the TUTT. The next tropical wave with axis now near 54
west will continue westward and is expected enter the southeastern
caribbean late friday or saturday. Trailing the wave is another
Saharan air layer with dry airmass and suspended dust particulates.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Moderate easterly trade winds will prevail during
the next few days. However...the winds are forecast to weaken by
Sunday into early next week as the Atlantic High lifts farther
north of the region.

In the meantime the easterly trades will help to transport period
of passing showers across the islands and coastal waters. During
the daytime...local and diurnal effects will give way to afternoon
convection mainly across parts of the interior and west sections
of Puerto Rico.

The previously mentioned tropical wave should cross the Lesser Antilles
late friday and saturday. This however should move mainly south of
the forecast area. By then associated moisture along the northern
portion of the wave should provide sufficient low level convergence
and instability to allow for some convective development across the
coastal waters and portions of the islands. By Sunday and into early
next week ...drier and typical weather pattern is forecast with daytime
temperatures ranging in the high 80s to near 90 degrees across the
forecast area.

&&
Quoting 26. elioe:



I see one major difference: whereas majority of GFS ensemble members predicted the formation of Danielle, they have not been keen on developing Invest 95L. And GFS ensemble generally fared the best overall in predicting the formation of Danielle. I think the 10/10% assessment of NHC is correct.
The operational developed what is now 95L as a follow up storm but dropped it a few days ago and only showed a weak isobar in the BOC for this upcoming Friday.Seeing how Danielle spun up in we could see another weak T.D it T.S.
Thanks Mr. Henson,
30. IDTH

Quoting 6. TropicalAnalystwx13:

SOS.




Jump in that lake, you will be fine.
hey bob you need too bump that up too 20%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms near the Yucatan Peninsula
and Belize are associated with a broad area of low pressure. Some
development of this system is possible on Friday after the low moves
over the Bay of Campeche and before it moves inland on Saturday. An
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane is scheduled to investigate
the low on Friday afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
Looks like Recon is going in tomorrow.
Quoting 28. washingtonian115:

The operational developed what is now 95L as a follow up storm but dropped it a few days ago and only showed a weak isobar in the BOC for this upcoming Friday.Seeing how Danielle spun up in we could see another weak T.D it T.S.
It also came from that impressive wave that was in the Central Atlantic days ago.
Quoting 399. opal92nwf:


Yuck I hate it. I was really hoping for an unbroken period of rain which we started a week ago or so. Plants are already shriveling up from the dryness around my house.

I will say though, my Dad in Ft. Walton beach says they just got a good rain, apparently there is a little raincloud moving from there towards Niceville.


From previous blog. Yes, we had a good rain Friday night when some storms blew threw from the North but it's been dry and sunny since then. Even had lows in the 60's for a couple of days this week which was nice to get along the coast in late June!
37. IDTH
Ensembles also shifted with the operation run

Quoting 35. Grothar:




Now with extra strength doom!
why we may soon have are 5th name storm of the season the E PAC still has 0 named storms WOW it looks like the E PAC will end june with no named storms at all when was the last time that ever happend ?
I'm not too optimistic on 95L's chances. The obvious issue to me is that its low level vorticity, which has weakened today per the CIMSS maps, is buried much farther south than what we saw with the disturbance that became Danielle. 20% is probably fair, maybe even generous.

Quoting 37. IDTH:

Ensembles also shifted with the operation run



Yeah, the GFS and its ensembles are making a significant correction away from showing that probable ghost storm. The typical June GFS ghost I think.

Edit: It is possible that the GFS, as it often does, was trying to "rush" a legitimate development possibility down the road into a shorter term storm. I would watch around the 2nd week of July for something, with the East Pac possibly becoming active before then. But the idea that something would develop in late June was GFS nonsense.
Quoting 31. PedleyCA:



Jump in that lake, you will be fine.


That is unless the lake water is warm then it could contain a brain eating amoeba, so sad.

Link
Thanks for the interesting infos about Mei-yu (or baiu) front, Bob; something new to learn. And thoughts to the affected people in China. I've seen some graphic snippets of videos from the impact, using a Chinese hashtag, which I better not share in here.

Meanwhile Germany and co. has experienced a hot summer day due to advected tropical airmasses from Spain and further south - the hottest day so far in 2016 with temps reaching 35C (95F), and humid to boot, creating "loaded gun"-conditions for the northwest where some very strong storms with excessive lightning and hail are popping up right now. More to come in from France later tonight. Tomorrow the stuff will move further east, f.e. to my region near Frankfurt. And our traditional four-nights-long open air midsummer-festival in Mainz is about to start at that time, um.
Forecast and mesoscale discussion for today on Estofex.


Screenshot: Current thunderstorms in Europe's/Germany's west.

Lightning in Europe live.
I believe that the GFS will drop the next storm in a few days then pick back up on it about 2 days before it develops.
Quoting 10. wunderkidcayman:

From last blog

Oh wow 95L just saying if 95L become Earl and future 96L/GFS storm become Fiona that would be two more early records broken
Damn this season is really going


Btw guys about a week ago or a little over a week ago GFS also predicted this system to form and become a storm but as time when on GFS started pushing back a little bit then dropped it and GFS was the only one to catch this one

Good job GFS for catching it it's only too bad you dropped
Holy Moley, look at that Atlantic high pressure. I think after only a short respite we will be dealing with MDR systems making a run for the CONUS as early as late July. Make sure your F5 keys are in good working order.

Quoting 37. IDTH:

Ensembles also shifted with the operation run


Quoting 35. Grothar:




This is probably why our chances of rain go to 60% starting July 3. I sure hope it fails to materialize but even if it doesn't the rain a tropical wave brings without developing would still mess up a nice 4th of July boating weekend on the Emerald Coast.
It's So Hot Some Planes Can't Fly - Here's Why
cntraveler.com - June 20, 2016
"Essentially, the higher the air temperature, the thinner the air, and the more challenging for a pilot to safety get the plane on or off the ground. Anything higher than 104 degrees can be a cause for concern. Smaller regional planes are certified to handle more than that, up to 118 degrees, but with temperatures expected to climb, we may see more airlines canceling or rerouting flights. As for the larger planes? Most Boeing aircraft can operate in up to 126 degree weather, and Airbus, 127 degrees."
48. IDTH
Quoting 45. HaoleboySurfEC:

Holy Moley, look at that Atlantic high pressure. I think after only a short respite we will be dealing with MDR systems making a run for the CONUS as early as late July. Make sure your F5 keys are in good working order.



That was another topic I wanted to discuss, I believe the last time we saw a high this strong was in the 2000's. The steering pattern that is setting up is looking like a bad one in terms of landfalls whether it be to islands, mexico or the US. This is bad steering pattern.
Tracking lows and insignificant TS hitting Yucatan is really boring.
Quoting 49. hurricanefishfla:

Tracking lows and insignificant TS hitting Yucatan is really boring.


For me is the other way around. It may be a significant thing for those who live in Yucatan because of the flooding that can be massive causing calamities.
Quoting 44. Tcwx2:

I believe that the GFS will drop the next storm in a few days then pick back up on it about 2 days before it develops.


That is GFS standard MO
Quoting 45. HaoleboySurfEC:

Holy Moley, look at that Atlantic high pressure. I think after only a short respite we will be dealing with MDR systems making a run for the CONUS as early as late July. Make sure your F5 keys are in good working order.


Ready and set.
If the rains of pre-Danielle disturbance over Yucatan have saturated the soil, perhaps there could be some kind of brown ocean effect facilitating tropical cyclone formation. Or does all the excess soil moisture fall into cenotes and other types of impact-related limestone fractures?
Quoting 50. Tropicsweatherpr:



For me is the other way around. It may be a significant thing for those who live in Yucatan because of the flooding that can be massive causing calamities.
Did you see any massive flood caused by Danielle? Expect the same if Earl forms. The excitement begins in August.
Could we have Earl??
Quoting 50. Tropicsweatherpr:



For me is the other way around. It may be a significant thing for those who live in Yucatan because of the flooding that can be massive causing calamities.


We are also tracking a potentially stronger storm in early July that, provided it forms, has a high chance of affecting the conus
Large-scale floods soak south-west China - video
Reuters/Guardian, Thursday 23 June 2016 15.46 BST
South-west China has been swept by heavy downpours. Firefighters and passersby in Guizhou province rescued dozens of people from floods. In the city of Zhaotong, in Yunnan province, 2,100 people were evacuated. In the nearby village of Lianghe, floodwaters swept away a three-storey building.
Quoting 53. elioe:

If the rains of pre-Danielle disturbance over Yucatan have saturated the soil, perhaps there could be some kind of brown ocean effect facilitating tropical cyclone formation. Or does all the excess soil moisture fall into cenotes and other types of impact-related limestone fractures?


We all ready had Danielle
Quoting 53. elioe:

If the rains of pre-Danielle disturbance over Yucatan have saturated the soil, perhaps there could be some kind of brown ocean effect facilitating tropical cyclone formation. Or does all the excess soil moisture fall into cenotes and other types of impact-related limestone fractures?
Brown ocean effect facilitating tropical formation? That's new for me.
Quoting 55. birdsrock2016:

Could we have Earl??



Yes there a 50/50 ch we may or may not see are next named storm we will see
Now for my posting of the average storm formation hotspots for the time period from June 21-30.
Quoting 55. birdsrock2016:

Could we have Earl??
Maybe if you live in Yucatan,so YOU can have it.
Quoting 45. HaoleboySurfEC:

Holy Moley, look at that Atlantic high pressure. I think after only a short respite we will be dealing with MDR systems making a run for the CONUS as early as late July. Make sure your F5 keys are in good working order.


Yea i mentioned that awhile back when they started posting that model heading into the gulf. That High is serious in the Atlantic.
Quoting 58. Tazmanian:



We all ready had Danielle


Yes, and the disturbance that became Danielle crossed Yucatan.

Quoting 59. hurricanefishfla:

Brown ocean effect facilitating tropical formation? That's new for me.


Well, typically brown ocean effect slows down the weakening of systems that have made landfall. But it would make sense, that release of latent heat from soil would also affect systems that have not yet formed into tropical cyclones. I guess that the "land depressions" of India are an example of that.
Quoting 58. Tazmanian:



We all ready had Danielle


I think he meant too say post-TS Danielle,Taz,LOL.
Quoting 42. 69Viking:



That is unless the lake water is warm then it could contain a brain eating amoeba, so sad.

Link

Yes there is that nasty little bugger to deal with.
Quoting 27. LargoFl:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
101 PM AST THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Mid to upper level ridge will remain in place across
the Northeastern Caribbean today. However TUTT low across the
Tropical Atlantic will retrogress westwards over the area by
Friday while slowly weakening. This pattern in the meantime will
support mild cap inversion across the forecast area therefore
limiting convective development and the transport of trade wind
showers

In the low levels...strong high pressure ridge spread across
Central Atlantic will remain the dominant feature for the next
several days. This will help maintain moderate easterly trade
winds which will continue to aid in transporting light to moderate
trade winds showers across the region especially during the late
evening and early morning hours.

A TUTT induced low to mid level trough now across the Northern
Leewards will shift across the region over the next few days in
tandem with the TUTT. The next tropical wave with axis now near 54
west will continue westward and is expected enter the southeastern
caribbean late friday or saturday. Trailing the wave is another
Saharan air layer with dry airmass and suspended dust particulates.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Moderate easterly trade winds will prevail during
the next few days. However...the winds are forecast to weaken by
Sunday into early next week as the Atlantic High lifts farther
north of the region.

In the meantime the easterly trades will help to transport period
of passing showers across the islands and coastal waters. During
the daytime...local and diurnal effects will give way to afternoon
convection mainly across parts of the interior and west sections
of Puerto Rico.

The previously mentioned tropical wave should cross the Lesser Antilles
late friday and saturday. This however should move mainly south of
the forecast area. By then associated moisture along the northern
portion of the wave should provide sufficient low level convergence
and instability to allow for some convective development across the
coastal waters and portions of the islands. By Sunday and into early
next week ...drier and typical weather pattern is forecast with daytime
temperatures ranging in the high 80s to near 90 degrees across the
forecast area.

&&

CFS forecast for aug- oct call for above normal shear and with the cooling going on in the ocean along east coast could be another very quiet hurricane season.
Quoting 64. elioe:



Yes, and the disturbance that became Danielle crossed Yucatan.



Well, typically brown ocean effect slows down the weakening of systems that have made landfall. But it would make sense, that release of latent heat from soil would also affect systems that have not yet formed into tropical cyclones. I guess that the "land depressions" of India are an example of that.


One example was TSBill with the Brown ocean effect that made it all the way to the Atlantic OCean, while still staying tropical.
Quoting 12. IDTH:

Just for comparison. 2005 vs 2016





Wow I have to say the two look quite similar.
Quoting 67. help4u:

CFS forecast for aug- oct call for above normal shear and with the cooling going on in the ocean along east coast could be another very quiet hurricane season.


Too early too say that.
this will be a high pressure storm if it dos get named high pressure storms are storm that fourms over high pressure areas or some in like that

AL, 95, 2016062318, , BEST, 0, 180N, 888W, 25, 1015, LO,


so if we do get TD 5 or the next named storm out of 95L pressures will be high and not low then what you would normal find in a storm
Quoting 70. birdsrock2016:



Too early too say that.



hes a troll
Quoting 67. help4u:

CFS forecast for aug- oct call for above normal shear and with the cooling going on in the ocean along east coast could be another very quiet hurricane season.

Only in the MDR, where slightly above normal shear is predicted. Gulf/Carib has slightly below normal shear predicted
Quoting 72. Tazmanian:




hes a troll


I thought we were cool with me being on the blog, btw i'm not JFV.
75. IDTH
Quoting 73. HurricaneFan:


Only in the MDR, where slightly above normal shear is predicted. Gulf/Carib has slightly below normal shear predicted

Which in a way is a bad thing because the further west these waves develop, the more likely they are to impact land.
Quoting 74. birdsrock2016:



I thought we were cool with me being on the blog, btw i'm not JFV.


was not talking too you i was i Quote you and told you help4you was a troll when you quote him
Quoting 75. IDTH:


Which in a way is a bad thing because the further west these waves develop, the more likely they are to impact land.


Yep, once the shear letts up in July, we could be seeing some big time activity.
Quoting 74. birdsrock2016:



I thought we were cool with me being on the blog, btw i'm not JFV.
Quoting 74. birdsrock2016:



I thought we were cool with me being on the blog, btw i'm not JFV.
Any idea how many trolls are here?
Quoting 58. Tazmanian:



We all ready had Danielle


Danielle formed before crossing the Yucatan and going into the BOC?
I just love watching Mark Sudduth's video's, in his latest video as of yesterday, he described how we are in a average small bump right now for late June, and how it's just all uphill from now, with the ITCZ gaining latitude in the coming weeks.
Quoting 79. 69Viking:



Danielle formed before crossing the Yucatan and going into the BOC?
You are LATE
82. IDTH
Quoting 80. Climate175:

I just love watching Mark Sudduth's video's, in his latest video as of yesterday, he described how we are in a average small bump right now for late June, and how it's just all uphill from now, with the ITCZ gaining latitude in the coming weeks.

Yeah he's my favorite weather guy besides Cantore. His documentation of Katrina and so many other storms were insane. He keeps it real a lot of times in his hurricane season updates and that's what I respect about him.
Quoting 41. MAweatherboy1:


Yeah, the GFS and its ensembles are making a significant correction away from showing that probable ghost storm. The typical June GFS ghost I think.

Edit: It is possible that the GFS, as it often does, was trying to "rush" a legitimate development possibility down the road into a shorter term storm. I would watch around the 2nd week of July for something, with the East Pac possibly becoming active before then. But the idea that something would develop in late June was GFS nonsense.

I get that you're skeptical of what the GFS is showing, and that's completely fine given it's still a week or longer out, but to say definitely that what the GFS is showing is "nonsense" is a very premature statement. Numerous ensembles still show a cyclone. Given the model's track record in the long range so far this year, it's worth monitoring. The overall pattern favors development in the first week of July regardless of whether the current modeled storm materializes or not.
Quoting 81. hurricanefishfla:

You are LATE


I think everyone missed the point, he was talking about Pre-Danielle when all that tropical moisture crossed the Yucatan. That is the same thing that is happening now, it's not a storm yet but is going over very wet ground before it gets to the BOC.
Quoting 79. 69Viking:



Danielle formed before crossing the Yucatan and going into the BOC?


no 94L be came TD 4 after it cross and be for it made land fall in MX it was upgraded too the 4 named storm
Quoting 85. Tazmanian:



no 94L be came TD 4 after it cross and be for it made land fall in MX it was upgraded too the 4 named storm


You called him out for saying Pre-Danielle when he was right, it was Pre-Danielle when it crossed the Yucatan.
On a side note the fact that we have had 2 with the potential for another storm to form from healthy tropical waves that originated from the deep tropics tells me that 2016 will be a different beast than the last 4 years.
I dont think I have ever seen our area under a tornado watch two days in a row!
NAVGEM starting to pick up on something in the caribbean

Quoting 89. washingtonian115:

NAVGEM starting to pick up on something in the caribbean


Oh no,another pre-pre for Yucatan and BOC
Quoting 75. IDTH:


Which in a way is a bad thing because the further west these waves develop, the more likely they are to impact land.


Most of the strongest storms and worst US hits either were homegrown or didn't develop as much of anything before being west of Hispaniola. Ivan type tracks are unusual.
I think we could have the orange or red crayon once it crosses the yucatan peninsula.
Have a look a this fresh downburst video from Denmark (Rudbocking) which has just been posted on a German wetterblog. Extreme stuff going on with those current storms from Benelux over northwestern Germany to Denmark and the Baltic Sea!

Link Video Facebook!

Satellite loop of the development of these storms.
BBL
Finally some Oklahoma treat in Holland. Tennis ball calibre precip objects. This night Dutch insurers will spend crying.
Quoting 90. PedleyCA:


Ventura County oil spill misses beach, but damage on land is unclear photo courtesy L.A. Times


Yipes, hopefully there was not much damage to the ecosystem, oils spills can really kill lots of the animals. I hope that this does not seep into the aquifer. That would be bad.
I like your profile picture, Pedley. Is it one of the characters from Looney Tunes?

I'll concede, I don't trust the GFS for anything past 5 days if it doesn't have any hint of support from the other models. Best to just wait and watch I guess. The real season will be here soon enough anyways. I would again caution against reading into anything before August as it relates to the rest of the season. 2013 is another good example, remember Chantal and Dorian. Everyone was sure it was a sign of a hyperactive CV season to come... and it just didn't happen.

Anyways, I won't be on again until mid next week. Taking a long awaited trip to the Florida Keys. Luckily, no tropical trouble to deal with. Happy blogging :)
Quoting 95. cRRKampen:

Finally some Oklahoma treat in Holland. Tennis ball calibre precip objects. This night Dutch insurers will spend crying.

Right, see below (youtube: similar hail in Germany)!

Source Twitter: #hagel, @NOS , @omroepbrabant @ED_Valkenswaard, hagel in Valkenswaard zojuist
Quoting 90. PedleyCA:


Ventura County oil spill misses beach, but damage on land is unclear photo courtesy L.A. Times
Did the EPA ever come clean or do anything about the sludge dumped in the river in Colorado.Last i saw the native indians were suing the government.
Quoting 99. barbamz:


Right, see below (similar hail in Germany)!

Source Twitter: #hagel, @NOS , @omroepbrabant @ED_Valkenswaard, hagel in Valkenswaard zojuist

Indeed the pic I mean. I guess some more footage will surface :)
We know you get hail like this once in long whiles. To our weather hobby detriment the real weather all to often passes us and is for you. Well, now we're sharing some fun finally. Though I should not forget to cloud my soul with the sorrows of some car owners, of course.
Quoting 97. birdsrock2016:

I like your profile picture, Pedley. Is it one of the characters from Looney Tunes?



correct
Quoting 102. PedleyCA:


correct


Do you mind me asking which one? It 's been a while since i've seen Looney Tunes,LOL=).The only one I know by heart is tweety, that was the character I loved.
Quoting 103. birdsrock2016:



Do you mind me asking which one? It 's been a while since i've seen Looney Tunes,LOL=).The only one I know by heart is tweety, that was the character I loved.

Marvin the Martian
26 million trees have died in the Sierra since October, raising fire risk

A lethal combination of drought, heat and voracious bark beetles has killed 26 million trees in the Sierra Nevada over the last eight months -- an alarming finding for a state already raging with wildfires fueled by desiccated landscapes.

The dire estimate offered Wednesday by federal officials brings the loss of trees since 2010 to at least 66 million . . .






And no relief in sight . . .
Quoting 104. PedleyCA:


Marvin the Martian


There should have been an earth-shattering KA-BOOM!
Water Temps so far




Quoting 106. daddyjames:



There should have been an earth-shattering KA-BOOM!


I think it is the sound of all those trees dying, yikes...
Quoting 108. PedleyCA:



I think it is the sound of all those trees dying, yikes...


I thought the drought improved with the El-nino rains?
Quoting 107. bigwes6844:

Water Temps so far






Water temps kind of cold in the Middle Atlantic.
Quoting 109. birdsrock2016:



I thought the drought improved with the El-nino rains?


Nop you are wrong We may have had a super strong EL Nino. But there weather setup was not there so this was a vary dry EL Nino for S CA but N CA had a near or above normal rain fall depending on where you lived in N CA So this EL Nino was a flop
Quoting 109. birdsrock2016:



I thought the drought improved with the El-nino rains?


Primarily in Northern California.
From the article cited below: "Forest Service scientists believe the remaining trees need at least two years of normal or above-normal rain to fully regain their health."



Quoting 110. birdsrock2016:


Water temps kind of cold in the Middle Atlantic.


Water temper at 80 degrees is not cold
Yes we all know what happened in 2013 but I truly believe that season was not of the norm.The Atlantic was exhausted after 3 back to back seasons of 19 named storms each and after a while things will have to calm down one way or another.One sign that the 2013 may not be all that active was that every year the amount of major hurricanes went down in the Atlantic from 2010 having a record amount to 2011 only having 4 and then eventually just two in 2012.As you can see the north pacific is a good example of this and after having very active back to back seasons with record activity it is now exhausted and quiet which means the energy will be focused over the Atlantic this year.
Quoting 113. Tazmanian:



Water temper at 80 degrees is not cold


I thought tropical systems need greater than 80 degrees water temps. too intensify.
Quoting 112. daddyjames:



Primarily in Northern California.
From the article cited below: "Forest Service scientists believe the remaining trees need at least two years of normal or above-normal rain to fully regain their health."






Yipes, that 's not good news with the La-nina , which will inhibit rains for California.
Quoting 108. PedleyCA:



I think it is the sound of all those trees dying, yikes...


What is particularly disturbing is that ~28% of the total tree loss since 2010 has occurred in the last 8 months. Of course, it could mean that the overall population of trees may become more drought tolerant . . . provided there are no large fires to wipe the survivors out.
Quoting 114. washingtonian115:

Yes we all know what happened in 2013 but I truly believe that season was not of the norm.The Atlantic was exhausted after 3 back to back seasons of having 19 named storms and after a while things will have to calm down one way or another.One sign that the 2013 may not be all that active was that every year the amount of major hurricanes went down in the Atlantic from 2010 having a record amount to 2011 only having 4 and then eventually just two in 2012.As you can see the north pacific is a good example of this and after having very active back to back seasons with record activity it is now exhausted and quiet which means the energy will be focused over the Atlantic this year.



I blame Hurricane Patricia for the lack of TC right now in the E Pac that storm really took all the energy a way in the atmosphere has it was vary powerful than that why we saw little too no named storms at all after Hurricane Patricia and I still see the e pac is still seeing side effects from that.

This is why the e pac is so quite so far this season and we will be ending June with no named storms wish would be a 1st
Quoting 117. daddyjames:



What is particularly disturbing is that ~28% of the total tree loss since 2010 has occurred in the last 8 months. Of course, it could mean that the overall population of trees may become more drought tolerant . . . provided there are no large fires to wipe the survivors out.


How are the iconic Sequoia trees doing with the drought?
Quoting 119. birdsrock2016:



How are the iconic Sequoia trees doing with the drought?


They seem to be drought stressed as they are dropping large amounts of foliage (according to reports).
Quoting 116. birdsrock2016:



Yipes, that 's not good news with the La-nina , which will inhibit rains for California.



LA-Nina. Can some time be vary wet in CA. So some La-Nina can be dry others can be vary wet.


CA can have the best Pineapple Express storms in LA Nina years that can bring 20" of rain pluse
Quoting 120. daddyjames:



They seem to be drought stressed as they are dropping large amounts of foliage (according to reports).


So, the Sequoias might survive, because in their expansive lifespans , they must have gone through some very serious droughts that we didn't live to see as well.
Quoting 120. daddyjames:


They seem to be drought stressed as they are dropping large amounts of foliage (according to reports).

Well I hate to say it so I will let others better explain the facts :
Big Trees First to Die in Severe Droughts
Scientific American - Oct. 1, 2015.

McDowell said the paper adds to a growing body of science that is fueling concern for old, large trees. Although some forest management strategies could be helpful, such as forest thinning and controlled burning in appropriate places, those are merely bandages, he said.
"Do we predict all trees are going to die? Maybe it's 80 percent," he said. "The bottom line is we can't just limit CO2 emissions. We have to stop carbon emissions totally. It's good our governments are making progress, but it's just a drop in the bucket."

And the main problem with California drought is that now you need more than just a short sequence of near-average rainfall season totals to get out of the hole, a lot more.
Quoting 115. birdsrock2016:



I thought tropical systems need greater than 80 degrees water temps. too intensify.


Nop hurricane Alex come too mind has it was over cold water and we still got a hurricane out of it
The counts conducted by the Forestry Service match up pretty well with remote sensing done in that area:

Progressive forest canopy water loss during the 2012-2015 California drought

Abstract
The 2012-2015 drought has left California with severely reduced snowpack, soil moisture, ground water, and reservoir stocks, but the impact of this estimated millennial-scale event on forest health is unknown. We used airborne laser-guided spectroscopy and satellite-based models to assess losses in canopy water content of California's forests between 2011 and 2015. Approximately 10.6 million ha of forest containing up to 888 million large trees experienced measurable loss in canopy water content during this drought period. Severe canopy water losses of greater than 30% occurred over 1 million ha, affecting up to 58 million large trees. Our measurements exclude forests affected by fire between 2011 and 2015. If drought conditions continue or reoccur, even with temporary reprieves such as El Nio, we predict substantial future forest change.


Well, guess we got the answer about the drought continuing . . .
Quoting 118. Tazmanian:




I blame Hurricane Patricia for the lack of TC right now in the E Pac that storm really took all the energy a way in the atmosphere has it was vary powerful than that why we saw little too no named storms at all after Hurricane Patricia and I still see the e pac is still seeing side effects from that.

This is why the e pac is so quite so far this season and we will be ending June with no named storms wish would be a 1st

Its true hurricanes can cause cool wakes and increased shear in their vicinity but the impact does not last over months. Otherwise 2005 would not have happened after the incredibly active 2003 and 2004 seasons. Even on a shorter time frame; if monster hurricanes sucked up energy for months how did back to back cat five hurricanes occur in the gulf in 2005?
Quoting 110. birdsrock2016:


Water temps kind of cold in the Middle Atlantic.
Still has plenty of time to warm up with the summer sun.
I wonder. Since May and June the E Pac has had no named storms. I wounder if the E Pac can go all of July with out a named storm I no it will see one sooner or later but what if we don't have end up seeing any thing in July
Quoting 126. all4hurricanes:


Its true hurricanes can cause cool wakes and increased shear in their vicinity but the impact does not last over months. Otherwise 2005 would not have happened after the incredibly active 2003 and 2004 seasons. Even on a shorter time frame; if monster hurricanes sucked up energy for months how did back to back cat five hurricanes occur in the gulf in 2005?


Hmm good point
Quoting 124. Tazmanian:



Nop hurricane Alex come too mind has it was over cold water and we still got a hurricane out of it


How often do we see cold water forming Hurricanes, Taz?
Quoting 107. bigwes6844:

Water Temps so far




Water temps are cold in main development area.
Quoting 121. Tazmanian:




LA-Nina. Can some time be vary wet in CA. So some La-Nina can be dry others can be vary wet.


CA can have the best Pineapple Express storms in LA Nina years that can bring 20" of rain pluse


Good point Taz.I wasn't thinking about that type of scenario.
Quick question: Is 95L the wave that the GFS 300hr takes into Tx or is that a different wave?
Quoting 130. birdsrock2016:



How often do we see cold water forming Hurricanes, Taz?


not all ways i think that what made hurricane alex a rare event for the time of year has well
Quoting 134. Tazmanian:



not all ways i think that what made hurricane alex a rare event for the time of year has well


This season is breaking history each time a named storm is forming,LOL=)
Quoting 133. Tex8492:

Quick question: Is 95L the wave that the GFS 300hr takes into Tx or is that a different wave?


different wave

95L is getting that look

Quoting 137. Tazmanian:


95L is getting that look



Yep, orange and red crayons are imminent
Quoting 138. birdsrock2016:


Yep, orange and red crayons are imminent


whats not jump the gun
Buoy reports for the MDR of the Atlantic (for waves coming off Africa).

Station 13008 - Reggae
Prediction and Research Moored Array in the Atlantic
Location: 14.99N 38.01W
Date: Thu, 23 Jun 2016 18:00:00 UTC
Winds: NE (50°) at 11.1 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.00 in
Air Temperature: 77.9 F
Water Temperature: 78.1 F

Once you get further west and a little closer to the Islands

Station 41041 - NORTH EQUATORIAL TWO - 890 NM East of Martinique
NDBC
Location: 14.329N 46.082W
Date: Thu, 23 Jun 2016 19:50:00 UTC
Winds: ENE (70°) at 13.6 kt gusting to 17.5 kt
Significant Wave Height: 6.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Average Wave Period: 5.9 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ENE (72°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.99 in and falling
Air Temperature: 79.5 F
Dew Point: 72.9 F
Water Temperature: 80.4 F

Once you get to the Islands water temps are above 80 degrees.
330 NM northeast of ST. Martin
NDBC
Location: 21.575N 58.625W
Date: Thu, 23 Jun 2016 20:40:00 UTC
Winds: E (90°) at 11.7 kt gusting to 15.5 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.12 in
Air Temperature: 81.7 F
Dew Point: 74.7 F
Water Temperature: 82.6 F
Quoting 123. 999Ai2016:


Well I hate to say it so I will let others better explain the facts :
Big Trees First to Die in Severe Droughts
Scientific American - Oct. 1, 2015.

McDowell said the paper adds to a growing body of science that is fueling concern for old, large trees. Although some forest management strategies could be helpful, such as forest thinning and controlled burning in appropriate places, those are merely bandages, he said.
"Do we predict all trees are going to die? Maybe it's 80 percent," he said. "The bottom line is we can't just limit CO2 emissions. We have to stop carbon emissions totally. It's good our governments are making progress, but it's just a drop in the bucket."


The study itself did not look at individual species, nor was any of the data they utilized in the study from California specifically. So, as the authors themselves state:

"The fact that drought results in a greater increase in mortality rates of larger trees does not necessarily imply that the percentage of individuals killed by drought should be highest in large trees, as baseline mortality rates generally decrease with increasing tree size across most of the diameter range and the per cent mortality is not standardized relative to non-drought mortality patterns'

In general, their findings are pertinent, and could likely be true- but not necessarily applicable to a specific species of tree.

Edit: You can read the study here: Larger trees suffer most during drought in forests worldwide
Quoting 140. Sfloridacat5:

Buoy reports for the MDR of the Atlantic (for waves coming off Africa).

Station 13008 - Reggae
Prediction and Research Moored Array in the Atlantic
Location: 14.99N 38.01W
Date: Thu, 23 Jun 2016 18:00:00 UTC
Winds: NE (50°) at 11.1 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.00 in
Air Temperature: 77.9 F
Water Temperature: 78.1 F

Once you get further west and a little closer to the Islands

Station 41041 - NORTH EQUATORIAL TWO - 890 NM East of Martinique
NDBC
Location: 14.329N 46.082W
Date: Thu, 23 Jun 2016 19:50:00 UTC
Winds: ENE (70°) at 13.6 kt gusting to 17.5 kt
Significant Wave Height: 6.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Average Wave Period: 5.9 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ENE (72°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.99 in and falling
Air Temperature: 79.5 F
Dew Point: 72.9 F
Water Temperature: 80.4 F

Once you get to the Islands water temps are above 80 degrees.
330 NM northeast of ST. Martin
NDBC
Location: 21.575N 58.625W
Date: Thu, 23 Jun 2016 20:40:00 UTC
Winds: E (90°) at 11.7 kt gusting to 15.5 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.12 in
Air Temperature: 81.7 F
Dew Point: 74.7 F
Water Temperature: 82.6 F



Yeah, that's what I pointed out earlier. I think the tropical systems will intensify near the Caribbean islands and not the Atlantic due to the water temps.
143. IDTH
Quoting 133. Tex8492:

Quick question: Is 95L the wave that the GFS 300hr takes into Tx or is that a different wave?



No the GFS 300hr is a separate system that will be affected by the MJO wave. It has not formed (obviously) and where it goes/how strong it will be is up for contention. Looking forward to the 6z update to establish a trend.
Quoting 144. tigerdeF:




No the GFS 300hr is a separate system that will be affected by the MJO wave. It has not formed (obviously) and where it goes/how strong it will be is up for contention. Looking forward to the 6z update to establish a trend.


Ok Thanks. I just wanted to make sure. Gulf systems tend to move fast. I have a bad feeling about this season. Thanks again.
Quoting 49. hurricanefishfla:

Tracking lows and insignificant TS hitting Yucatan is really boring.
It might be boring now, but if this *trend* doesn't change boring it will not be for very much longer
why would sen rubio vote against aid for sandy? we hurricane vulnerables (thats not a word) have to stick together.
Quoting 137. Tazmanian:


95L is getting that look



I'm not seeing it just yet 95L is still over land and most of the big storms being produced are due to daytime heating over the Yucatan which happens with or without an invest
I think the Bermuda ridge will act like the 2008 season. Big and bulky in July/August. But come Late Sep/Oct it'll quickly give way to east coast troughing.
153. Ed22
Quoting 137. Tazmanian:


95L is getting that look


I think we can get a tropical storm out of invest 95L, tomorrow is gonna be a game changer when 95L gets on the northwestern coast of Yucatan peninsula heading over warm waters of Bay of campeche; Odds of development 40%/40%...
154. Ed22
Quoting 151. MrTornadochase:


I'm not seeing it just yet 95L is still over land and most of the big storms being produced are due to daytime heating over the Yucatan which happens with or without an invest
You will see it tomorrow when invest 95L pick steam when it enter the Gulf of Mexico ( Bay of Campeche)...
Couldn't ask for a much more favorable shear forecast across the Bay of Campeche once 95L emerges over water, with the upper-level low backing into Mexico and upper ridging establishing itself. Surface observations already show some semblance of a surface circulation over the Yucatan. The disturbance won't have much time over water, but as we saw with Danielle, it doesn't need much. It has no model support, but the BOC is a magical place. Let's see what happens.

Quoting 101. cRRKampen:

Though I should not forget to cloud my soul with the sorrows of some car owners, of course.

Actually insane event in Holland and across the border in western Germany.
Seriously, we are not supposed to be like Oklahoma.
Tornado warning for Alamance County, moving SE towards Siler City

Quoting 156. cRRKampen:


Actually insane event in Holland and across the border in western Germany.
Seriously, we are not supposed to be like Oklahoma.



Hey - what's wrong with OK? ;)
But I hear ya - I hate hail.
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Quoting 155. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Couldn't ask for a much more favorable shear forecast across the Bay of Campeche once 95L emerges over water, with the upper-level low backing into Mexico and upper ridging establishing itself. Surface observations already show some semblance of a surface circulation over the Yucatan. The disturbance won't have much time over water, but as we saw with Danielle, it doesn't need much. It has no model support, but the BOC is a magical place. Let's see what happens.

I see it going into Mexico.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
534 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE CITY OF LEXINGTON IN VIRGINIA...
ROCKBRIDGE COUNTY IN VIRGINIA...
THE CITY OF BUENA VISTA IN VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 1130 PM EDT

* AT 532 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. TWO TO THREE INCHES
OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
LEXINGTON...
BUENA VISTA...
GLASGOW...
GOSHEN...
AND COLLIERSTOWN.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ON TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA.

THIS INCLUDES VMI.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF FLOODING...
INCLUDING MUDSLIDES OR ROAD CLOSURES...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS
AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND ON TWITTER.

I'm a little south of this. Precipitation has been trained across west central Va. the past couple days mostly sparing southwest Va, although the line is currently slipping south.
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SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON KY - KJKL 602 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING CHARLESTON WV - KRLX 558 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING BLACKSBURG VA - KRNK 558 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING DENVER CO - KBOU 356 PM MDT THU JUN 23 2016
TORNADO WARNING     RALEIGH NC - KRAH 551 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016<>br st
Quoting 152. weatherbro:

I think the Bermuda ridge will act like the 2008 season. Big and bulky in July/August. But come Late Sep/Oct it'll quickly give way to east coast troughing.

The path of Ike was amazing in showing the strong ridge in the Atlantic and lack of big troughs. A storm track like this post 2008 was impossible.

The only major one that slipped through the cracks was Isaac 2012- probably a lot because it remained weak before getting closer to the CONUS.
For entertainment purposes only

GFS has a hurricane stalling off the Texas coast (subject to change of course)
18z GFS shows a hurricane Bret (1999) track. looks to be a cat 2. Fantasy land.
The High in the Atlantic looks like it wants to stay in the 1035 or higher range in terms of pressure, which is very decent and strong, it weakens a bit to 1031mb which then allows the potential Gulf storm to move northward, also because it's strengthening it moves northward. The way it's acting, the storms in the next 3 months, will have a hard time to make a case to go out to sea.
Quoting 168. washingtonian115:

For entertainment purposes only

GFS has a hurricane stalling off the Texas coast (subject to change of course)


What category?
Quoting 171. pureet1948:



What category?



15
Quoting 171. pureet1948:



What category?

A this point it doesn't matter because it is many days away and the track is going to be flipping back and forth.
Quoting 156. cRRKampen:


Actually insane event in Holland and across the border in western Germany.
Seriously, we are not supposed to be like Oklahoma.


Back at the screen while outside mid Germany we experience a very calm, warm and humid night. Storms further northwest really keep on being extreme with relentless lightning, very large hail, strong winds and excessive rain. As it is in the middle of the night we need to wait some hours to get the whole picture (apart from delighted/scared posts on German weather blogs). Doc should get his list ready, titled "Costliest weather disasters in June", I guess.


Current tracks of lightning in Germany/northwest continental Europe, updating. Saved current loop.

Estofex published the forecast for tomorrow with "me" (mid Germany) in the center of the left cone of level 2. Expect some more additional mesoscale discussions tomorrow as their forecast says: Any storm forming in this belt can soon turn multi- or supercellular. Large hail is the dominant risk and may locally exceed 5 cm in size. Severe wind gusts and excessive precipiation may occur as well, especially in case convection organizes into a linear system.
Two foci emerge from the NWP forecasts:
(1) Convective initiation is likely from noon onwards over N Germany and Denmark. S Sweden may also be affected later on, as the subtropical air with abundant moisture (forecast 2m dewpoints around 20C) even makes its way that far north. Next to the above-mentioned risks, a tornado is not ruled out in coastal areas and generally in S Sweden, where the cloud bases will be lower and 0-1 km shear will regionally be enhanced to 10 m/s.
(2) Another round of storms is expected to form over central France, though it will turn quite late - possibly 15 UTC - before the cap can be broken. These storms may travel into W Germany in the evening and overnight. Convection may turn elevated betimes, but plentiful CAPE and increasing vertical wind shear even across lower levels keep the severe weather risk enhanced all night long.



Source and more.


Surface map for tomorrow.

I remember last year once we hit late July, the GFS started spitting out like 3 storms at once when we were very close to August beginning, this year, I wouldn't be too skeptical on it based on what this season has been and is shaping up to be.
Weird, pictures don't seem to post.
Quoting 172. daddyjames:



15



What kind of storm do you get at 995 MB?
Quoting 168. washingtonian115:

For entertainment purposes only

GFS has a hurricane stalling off the Texas coast (subject to change of course)


Ultimate doom for Texas! - ok just kidding . . . only in the dreams of GFS for now, far from reality.


Quoting 177. pureet1948:




What kind of storm do you get at 995 MB?


Its not worth worrying about right now. If it were 72-96 hours out it might indicate a cat 1. But for now, it is only a figment in the GFS's imagination.
Quoting 157. win1gamegiantsplease:

Tornado warning for Alamance County, moving SE towards Siler City




The group of storms simply dissolved before they got to I-540 (west of Raleigh). So, conditions aren't right for thunderstorms - yet.
181. Tcwx2
Normally a moderate-strong tropical storm or a weak cat 1 hurricane.
Quoting 177. pureet1948:




What kind of storm do you get at 995 MB?
Quoting 83. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I get that you're skeptical of what the GFS is showing, and that's completely fine given it's still a week or longer out, but to say definitely that what the GFS is showing is "nonsense" is a very premature statement. Numerous ensembles still show a cyclone. Given the model's track record in the long range so far this year, it's worth monitoring. The overall pattern favors development in the first week of July regardless of whether the current modeled storm materializes or not.


He's skeptical because the ECMWF disagrees with the GFS. It shows nothing in the Gulf. Pro mets usually wait until the Euro and the GFS agree before they call it.
Wow, come August who knows what kind of wild ride it might be. I'm going go ahead and say I hope we do have an exciting hurricane season, just of course not enjoying the death and destruction part.
Quoting 181. Tcwx2:

Normally a moderate-strong tropical storm or a weak cat 1 hurricane.


Oh, I can live with that. I've watched TV and eaten popcorn through weak cat 1 hurricanes. LOL!
Really pureet, that is 15 days out - that is way too long to put any effort in being concerned about it. Be aware, but don't be worried.
Quoting 178. daddyjames:



Ultimate doom for Texas! - ok just kidding . . . only in the dreams of GFS for now, far from reality.





Do you consider a weak Cat 1 hurricane dome for Texas? It's only 995 MB by the time it gets up to SE Texas.
Quoting 186. daddyjames:

Really pureet, that is 15 days out - that is way too long to put any effort in being concerned about it. Be aware, but don't be worried.


I don't worry about Cat 1 hurricanes or tropical storms. I worry about hurricanes like Ike and Rita.

It does bug me that the GFS is consistent about it, though.
Thunderstorm rolling through my neighborhood near Fort Myers. I ran out and took a picture of the gust front just before it started raining.
Quoting 179. daddyjames:



Its not worth worrying about right now. If it were 72-96 hours out it might indicate a cat 1. But for now, it is only a figment in the GFS's imagination.


I don't mind Cat 1s.
Quoting 176. opal92nwf:

Weird, pictures don't seem to post.


Did you remeber to take the stupid "s" off of the https?
Evening all . 95L sure has a large portion of the atmosphere in motion over the Yucatan.... interesting to see the clouds blowing up over the Bay of Campeche at the edge of the circulation.....

Quoting 182. Climate175:


Holy Crap - I have TWC on... and reporter near bulging building in Covington, VA is ma king me nervous. If that building holding back the hills fails, A big chunk of hill could collapse very quickly - not just some water and a few plants that are now missing.

Landslides 101: if the landslide "toe" fails .... it could be really, really bad.
Here is how it goes on the GFS:
16 days- Oh look! A potential storm, but way too far to make assumptions.
10 days- Hmm, it looks like the storm is sticking around on the models, time to eye it but not get too antsy
7 days- Storm is staying and getting closer, time to watch it more carefully and look to see for model consensus
5 days- This storm is looking more likely more it will form, and NHC should mention it soon.
Although this year, the GFS will predict things good in the long range, only to drop it in the medium range, and pick it up in the short range.
Shear is actually pretty light in the Eastern Atlantic come August via CFS.
95L going off the coast at the same spot or may be this a little more NW in the area that 94L came off be for it came TD 4 so 95L may have a little more time over water


oh the 8pm two is late
Quoting 188. pureet1948:



I don't worry about Cat 1 hurricanes or tropical storms. I worry about hurricanes like Ike and Rita.

It does bug me that the GFS is consistent about it, though.


Ahem? You freak out of the possibility of storm with 30-40mph winds.
nothing new

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorm activity continues near the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico in association with a broad area of low
pressure. There are currently no signs of organization.
However, some development of this system is possible Friday or
Friday night as the low moves over the Bay of Campeche. An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane is scheduled to investigate
the low on Friday afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
this may end up being other bust or a weak TD

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU JUN 23 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form during the weekend well
to the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Some slow development of the low is possible by early
next week as the system moves westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
The models just know that Early-July will be juicy, so it's probably good to expect some sort of twisting and turning to take place somewhere.

Or at least more rain.



Annular?
Quoting 197. luvtogolf:



Ahem? You freak out of the possibility of storm with 30-40mph winds.



Oops, yes I do. It's just that mostly the Cat 1's don't reach my part of town, so I don't feel them.
Michael Lowry ‏@MichaelRLowry Jun 22
The Caribbean a harbinger for a lot of things to come
My guess why the ECMWF/CMC doesn't develop the GFS system is because the energy is stolen by this potential EPAC system (which the GFS doesn't show).



EDIT: Seeing as this post caused confusion, I'll clarify: at this point in the timeline the ECMWF system would be too far away from the Atlantic to cause any sort of impact on any sort of system. However, the very genesis of this system could be a potential reason why the storm never materializes in the Atlantic as the energy could end up consolidating in the Pacific instead of the Atlantic. The GFS does not show development of a Pacific cyclone whereas the ECMWF/CMC do.
Quoting 166. Patrap:


Hey Patrap - re: private message i sent... looks like area has been cleared out! Hopefully far enough back.
205. beell
GFS 500mb Height/Anomaly Forecasts
5-Day Mean centered on Day 8 (top).
7-Day Mean centered on Day 11 (bottom).
(06/23 00Z GFS)

Fairly stable (stagnant?) pattern on these model frames over much of North America next week. Ridge in the west, trough in the east.

Leading to some track uncertainty for any GFS hypothetical, northward moving storm. Does it get trapped under the western ridge and track west of north? Influenced by the trough and east of north? Or, caught meandering in the col in between? Shift the ridge and trough axes east or west a bit. Change the amplitude of both. Reshuffle the deck.


Day 8


Day 11
Quoting 202. washingtonian115:

Michael Lowry %u200F@MichaelRLowry Jun 22
The Caribbean a harbinger for a lot of things to come



That also deserves an image:

Philip Klotzbach
%u200F@philklotzbach
Caribbean shear in July one of strongest predictors for overall seasonal Atlantic basin hurricane activity.



P.S. let me know whether you can see the image, I can't
Quoting 206. daddyjames:



That also deserves an image: Follow

Philip Klotzbach
‏@philklotzbach
Caribbean shear in July one of strongest predictors for overall seasonal Atlantic basin hurricane activity.
P.S. let me know whether you can see the image, I can't
Yeah I can see it.
Quoting 203. CybrTeddy:

My guess why the ECMWF/CMC doesn't develop the GFS system is because the energy is stolen by this potential EPAC system (which the GFS doesn't show).




Yeah, I saw that. Then there's hope for Texas?
Quoting 203. CybrTeddy:

My guess why the ECMWF/CMC doesn't develop the GFS system is because the energy is stolen by this potential EPAC system (which the GFS doesn't show).



Cyclones don't steal energy from each other, there can be simultaneous EPAC and ATL hurricanes like Manuel and Ingrid 2013
Wow can't it's been almost 3 years since I joined this blog, it's been a very warming and engaging experience to be here tracking anything from snowstorms to tornadoes to hurricanes through all the seasons, Winter, Spring, Summer and Fall, and I expect more interesting storms to track to come.
Quoting 154. Ed22:

You will see it tomorrow when invest 95L pick steam when it enter the Gulf of Mexico ( Bay of Campeche)...

Possibly time will tell. But I don't think this will get past invest status maybe weak TD at very most if it gets over water long enough.
Quoting 209. all4hurricanes:


Cyclones don't steal energy from each other, there can be simultaneous EPAC and ATL hurricanes like Manuel and Ingrid 2013


? Yes they can. Developing EPAC systems can rob developing ATL systems of energy and vice-versa. I'm talking about the genesis phase of these two systems.
NAVGEM continues to side with the GFS.
Quoting 212. CybrTeddy:



? Yes they can. Developing EPAC systems can rob developing ATL systems of energy and vice-versa. I'm talking about the genesis phase of these two systems.
That is not true. What is possible is called the Fujiwara effect, where to storms will rotate cyclonically around each other. The only way that one system will significantly affect another is that if they follow the same path. The "fuel" for tropical cyclones is warm SSTs. As a storm can cause significant upwelling, it can reduce SSTs in a given area, thus reducing the amount of potential energy available for the next storm (however after a few days the SSts often recover due to heating). Thus, a storm in the EPAC would not significantly affect an atlantic storm.
Quoting 209. all4hurricanes:


Cyclones don't steal energy from each other, there can be simultaneous EPAC and ATL hurricanes like Manuel and Ingrid 2013


Actually, they can, if close enough together. David stole energy from Frederic in 1979, for example. I think that's what the Euro's trying to say.
Quoting 213. washingtonian115:

NAVGEM continues to side with the GFS.


That's because NAVGEM is powered by the GFS. Originally it was called NOGAPS.
Quoting 214. afweatherguy86:

That is not true. What is possible is called the Fujiwara effect, where to storms will rotate cyclonically around each other. The only way that one system will significantly affect another is that if they follow the same path. The "fuel" for tropical cyclones is warm SSTs. As a storm can cause significant upwelling, it can reduce SSTs in a given area, thus reducing the amount of potential energy available for the next storm (however after a few days the SSts often recover due to heating). Thus, a storm in the EPAC would not significantly affect an atlantic storm.


But remember, there's only a narrow strip of Mexican land separating the two systems, and they'll both move west before they turn northwest.
Quoting 212. CybrTeddy:



? Yes they can. Developing EPAC systems can rob developing ATL systems of energy and vice-versa. I'm talking about the genesis phase of these two systems.


I understand what you are attempting to say, and agree.
Quoting 215. GeoffreyWPB:








18Z for comparison

Quoting 214. afweatherguy86:

That is not true. What is possible is called the Fujiwara effect, where to storms will rotate cyclonically around each other. The only way that one system will significantly affect another is that if they follow the same path. The "fuel" for tropical cyclones is warm SSTs. As a storm can cause significant upwelling, it can reduce SSTs in a given area, thus reducing the amount of potential energy available for the next storm (however after a few days the SSts often recover due to heating). Thus, a storm in the EPAC would not significantly affect an atlantic storm.


Again, I'm not talking about a fully mature tropical cyclone, I'm talking about tropical disturbances without a fully formed LLC. What can happen is a developing tropical cyclone in the Eastern Pacific can rob a developing storm in the Western Atlantic of moisture and cause sheering. And fully formed tropical cyclones do impact each other regardless of what basin they're in. Seeing as Ingrid was brought up, Ingrid faced high shear because Manuel in the Eastern Pacific was imparting high sheer onto Ingrid. Here's what Ingrid's Wiki page has to say on this:

"On September 13, convection and organization increased and the depression strengthened into Tropical Storm Ingrid, while weak steering currents resulted in little movement of the cyclone.[4] Partially due to the presence of nearby Hurricane Manuel in the eastern Pacific basin on the other side of Mexico, significant wind shear existed in the vicinity of Ingrid.[5] Nonetheless, strong convection and intermittent development of an eye allowed for strengthening of the storm on September 14.[6] Ingrid strengthened into a hurricane %u2013 the second of the season %u2013 that afternoon.[7] Around that time, the hurricane turned sharply northeastward due to a trough over eastern Mexico and a ridge over the southeastern United States.[1] Additional strengthening took place thereafter, and Ingrid reached a peak intensity of 140 km/h (85 mph) early on September 15 while starting to move northward and begin a northwest turn towards the Mexican coastline.[8]"
Crazy scenes out of West Virginia with the globally-warmed floods. Really dodged a bullet here in Pittsburgh from this event.
Quoting 209. all4hurricanes:


Cyclones don't steal energy from each other, there can be simultaneous EPAC and ATL hurricanes like Manuel and Ingrid 2013


That was an unusual event in and of itself and cannot be used as an example. Both were embedded in a huge monsoonal gyre and the two storms moved in tandem with the gyre. (Hat tip to beell on that one).
Quoting 219. daddyjames:



I understand what you are attempting to say, and agree.


However, I disagree that that is the case at the moment given the time and spatial difference between the two hypothetical events.
Quoting 224. daddyjames:



However, I disagree that that is the case at the moment given the time and spatial difference between the two hypothetical events.


Well, I'm not saying there aren't other factors, but it's interesting that the GFS is the only model showing TC development in the Western Caribbean and the only model not showing TC development in the Pacific. I'm sure someone who knows vastly more than me will destroy my thinking, but that's just my interpretation of the models.
Quoting 203. CybrTeddy:

My guess why the ECMWF/CMC doesn't develop the GFS system is because the energy is stolen by this potential EPAC system (which the GFS doesn't show).



EDIT: Seeing as this post caused confusion, I'll clarify: at this point in the timeline the ECMWF system would be too far away from the Atlantic to cause any sort of impact on any sort of system. However, the very genesis of this system could be a potential reason why the storm never materializes in the Atlantic as the energy could end up consolidating in the Pacific instead of the Atlantic. The GFS does not show development of a Pacific cyclone whereas the ECMWF/CMC do.


Right on! The Euro passes with shining colors.
Quoting 225. CybrTeddy:



Well, I'm not saying there aren't other factors, but it's interesting that the GFS is the only model showing TC development in the Western Caribbean and the only model not showing TC development in the Pacific. I'm sure someone who knows vastly more than me will destroy my thinking, but that's just my interpretation of the models.


At this time frame, no one can destroy anything. One thing though, at 96 hours out - if the GFS predicts a storm in the GOM, it generally happens (very few False Alarms for the GFS in the GOM
<= 96 hrs out). At least for the previous version, before the upgrade. The ECMWF may or may not verify genesis in the GOM at that time, again before any recent upgrades.
228. beell
Quoting 223. daddyjames:



That was an unusual event in and of itself and cannot be used as an example. Both were embedded in a huge monsoonal gyre and the two storms moved in tandem with the gyre. (Hat tip to beell on that one).


Ingrid and Manuel would never steal from each other-all they wanted was to dance. One of Ingrid's cousins was convicted of fraud related to a vorticity-based ponzi scheme.
H/T back atcha'
Quoting 225. CybrTeddy:



Well, I'm not saying there aren't other factors, but it's interesting that the GFS is the only model showing TC development in the Western Caribbean and the only model not showing TC development in the Pacific. I'm sure someone who knows vastly more than me will destroy my thinking, but that's just my interpretation of the models.


If you are looking for some light reading: An Evaluation of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Forecasts from Global Numerical Models

Or there is Dr. Master's Post specifically discussing the GFS - but for a Caribbean storm, not a GOM storm.

Edit: Those both are before any more recent updates in the models.
Quoting 228. beell:



Ingrid and Manuel would never steal from each other-all they wanted was to dance. One of Ingrid's cousins was convicted of fraud related to a vorticity-based ponzi scheme.
H/T back atcha'



Maybe it's a good thing that there is so much activity in the caribbean with all these "garbage storms" as one blogger referred to them as. It is my understanding from reading what many of you post that a TC's main source of energy are warm SST's. So hopefully these "garbage storms" will rob this area of some of it's energy that could have been fuel for a potential Joaquin or Patricia?
Quoting 231. Loduck:

Maybe it's a good thing that there is so much activity in the caribbean with all these "garbage storms" as one blogger referred to them as. It is my understanding from reading what many of you post that a TC's main source of energy are warm SST's. So hopefully these "garbage storms" will rob this area of some of it's energy that could have been fuel for a potential Joaquin or Patricia?


Maybe we should call them Tropical Trash? ;)
Well, for what it's worth, I understood what you meant, Teddy. :)
Quoting 228. beell:



Ingrid and Manuel would never steal from each other-all they wanted was to dance. One of Ingrid's cousins was convicted of fraud related to a vorticity-based ponzi scheme.
H/T back atcha'



Heck, I am embarrassed to say, I did not even know what a monsoonal gyre was at the time - thank you for the edumacation!

Manuel did beat up on his little sister though . . . .
Quoting 216. pureet1948:



Actually, they can, if close enough together. David stole energy from Frederic in 1979, for example. I think that's what the Euro's trying to say.


David "stole" from Frederic? Wasn't Frederic a cat4?
Quoting 227. daddyjames:



At this time frame, no one can destroy anything. One thing though, at 96 hours out - if the GFS predicts a storm in the GOM, it generally happens (very few False Alarms for the GFS in the GOM
<= 96 hrs out). At least for the previous version, before the upgrade. The ECMWF may or may not verify genesis in the GOM at that time, again before any recent upgrades.


Although the ECMWF does miss GOM storms (fails to predict genesis), when it does predict a GOM storm it almost always happens.

Edit: Again, that is for time frames <= 96hrs.
Quoting 232. daddyjames:



Maybe we should call them Tropical Trash? ;)


But good Tropical Trash for Texas, hm?
Quoting 235. Bucsboltsfan:



David "stole" from Frederic? Wasn't Frederic a cat4?


Only after David moved far enough away to the northeast.
Quoting 237. pureet1948:



But good Tropical Trash for Texas, hm?


The entire Southeast hates storms, but if they did not occur and bring the moisture/precipitation with them it would be a much drier place than it is . . .
Quoting 220. Patrap:



18Z for comparison



95L seems to be looking better than pre-Danielle did at the time it was crossing the Yucatan. There was a nice convective blowup earlier when the outer bands of the invest reached the BOC. I think it is quite likely for 95L to spin up into a TD or weak TS - it seems like the models are shifting to the northwest too
Quoting 235. Bucsboltsfan:



David "stole" from Frederic? Wasn't Frederic a cat4?


Uh, oh. Maybe I misunderstood.
The interesting thing to note is that no storm yet has taken the full total energy from Caribbean, so all these BOC storms are normal for June, I mean if you look at Danny from last year, if the conditions right now were there in Caribbean when Danny was coming, Danny could have reached Cat 5.
Quoting 240. HurricaneFan:


95L seems to be looking better than pre-Danielle did at the time it was crossing the Yucatan. There was a nice convective blowup earlier when the outer bands of the invest reached the BOC. I think it is quite likely for 95L to spin up into a TD or weak TS - it seems like the models are shifting to the northwest too

Wasn't the convection over the Yuctan unrelated to 95L and just due to daytime heating similar to what happens to Florida during the rainy season or a combination?
If I were a sunflower in deep south TX...
I'd probably keep an eye on 95L hypothetics.
Quoting 231. Loduck:

Maybe it's a good thing that there is so much activity in the caribbean with all these "garbage storms" as one blogger referred to them as. It is my understanding from reading what many of you post that a TC's main source of energy are warm SST's. So hopefully these "garbage storms" will rob this area of some of it's energy that could have been fuel for a potential Joaquin or Patricia?


Can anyone tell me if there's anything to what he's saying?
Quoting 243. MrTornadochase:


Wasn't the convection over the Yuctan unrelated to 95L and just due to daytime heating similar to what happens to Florida or a combination?
If u look at satloops it's pretty obvious the storms are rotating around 95's coc.... plus they're out over the water, while nearby land is comparatively bare.
247. IDTH
Quoting 182. Climate175:



Mid level spin evident, once it get's over the BOC like TropicalAnalystwx13 said, it's going to be in a very favorable area sheer wise. In my honest amateur opinion, throw out the models on this one, the conditions will be ripe for tropical cyclone development and the system has got evident vorticity that could consolidate quickly.
Quoting 242. Climate175:

The interesting thing to note is that no storm yet has taken the full total energy from Caribbean, so all these BOC storms are normal for June, I mean if you look at Danny from last year, if the conditions right now were there in Caribbean when Danny was coming, Danny could have reached Cat 5.


Fortunately, the GFS isn't sniffing out a storm like Danny. It's been consistent with keeping MB pressures high.
Quoting 247. IDTH:


Mid level spin evident, once it get's over the BOC like TropicalAnalystwx13 said, it's going to be in a very favorable area sheer wise. In my honest amateur opinion, throw out the models on this one, the conditions will be ripe for tropical cyclone development and the system has got evident vorticity that could consolidate quickly.
Looking like Earl may be on its way.
It's coming

Quoting 248. pureet1948:



Fortunately, the GFS isn't sniffing out a storm like Danny. It's been consistent with keeping MB pressures high.
Mark Sudduth put it in a great way, hurricanes don't just pop up like that, they have to have the favorable conditions, that's why the middle of August is when things are perfect with SST and the atmosphere environment.
Quoting 247. IDTH:


Mid level spin evident, once it get's over the BOC like TropicalAnalystwx13 said, it's going to be in a very favorable area sheer wise. In my honest amateur opinion, throw out the models on this one, the conditions will be ripe for tropical cyclone development and the system has got evident vorticity that could consolidate quickly.

I agree. Favorable conditions in the BOC may support a quick spin up.
Quoting 245. pureet1948:



Can anyone tell me if there's anything to what he's saying?


He's hoping that the weaker systems we are currently seeing will ultimately decrease the TCHP (Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential) in the Caribbean so that storms in the future cannot tap into that resource.

Advisory for 97W from PAGASA

At 10:00 AM PhST, A Low Pressure Area, outside of Philippine Area of Responsibility, was spotted at 1620 km east of Mindanao (5.1N 139.8E).

It is expected to develop into a tropical depression and will enter Philippine Area of Responsibility within the next 24 hours.
Got a shot

95L looks primarily driven by 500mb vorticity seen in the IR satellite imagery with a spin evident. I think this will spin up quickly. Earl I think has a chance at 50mph, or higher if he can move more northwest than west.
Quoting 222. ClimateChange:

Crazy scenes out of West Virginia with the globally-warmed floods. Really dodged a bullet here in Pittsburgh from this event.
Never heard that term. Is that something new?
Quoting 47. 999Ai2016:

It's So Hot Some Planes Can't Fly - Here's Why
cntraveler.com - June 20, 2016
"Essentially, the higher the air temperature, the thinner the air, and the more challenging for a pilot to safety get the plane on or off the ground. Anything higher than 104 degrees can be a cause for concern. Smaller regional planes are certified to handle more than that, up to 118 degrees, but with temperatures expected to climb, we may see more airlines canceling or rerouting flights. As for the larger planes? Most Boeing aircraft can operate in up to 126 degree weather, and Airbus, 127 degrees."

That the air gets thinner the higher the temperature is a concept called density altitude in aviation. Not only does the thinner air reduce lift but it also reduces the power output of the engine and particularly for propeller airplanes it reduces the thrust produced by the propeller (or rotor of a helicopter). All of that can increase the length of the takeoff roll and increase the needed true airspeed to get off the ground. So while an airplane may be certified for high temperatures it may need to reduce the total load it carries (IOW less passengers) to maintain adequate performance in high temperatures.
Quoting 253. daddyjames:



He's hoping that the weaker systems we are currently seeing will ultimately decrease the TCHP (Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential) in the Caribbean so that storms in the future cannot tap into that resource.


*she*
Quoting 232. daddyjames:



Maybe we should call them Tropical Trash? ;)
I like that phrase much better :)
Quoting 229. daddyjames:



If you are looking for some light reading: An Evaluation of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Forecasts from Global Numerical Models

Or there is Dr. Master's Post specifically discussing the GFS - but for a Caribbean storm, not a GOM storm.

Edit: Those both are before any more recent updates in the models.
good read-although I don't understand all that math and physics stuff they weren't my best subjects in college *~*. But, one thing that I did get from it was that the GFS model is better at predicting TC genesis in the Caribbean and GOM than the ECMWF. Thanks :)

Source. Some sharp drop of pressure in the UK overnight, umm. They must be in the eye of a Cat5, no? Fasten our seat belts, folks! More.
And yes, severe weather over northwestern Germany continued all night, too. Very bumpy ride for many, this night, and more to come.
95L is developing low level spiral bands on the western side of the circulation, which I now believe is under 5-10 knots of wind shear and is going to be over 83-85F water temperatures shortly, also the two centers one surface and one mid level are apparently becoming stacked upon one another, this should lead to rapid intensification of the system once upon the center of the circulation is completely over water.
Looks like the GFS has reached the 'drop the storm' phase on the 0z run. Buries the vorticity into Central America.
Quoting 257. Kenfa03:

Never heard that term. Is that something new?
LOL! Yea it is new until they change it in couple years.
Quoting 262. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Looks like the GFS has reached the 'drop the storm' phase on the 0z run. Buries the vorticity into Central America.


This 95L disturbance really has a chance at RI if development continues.
Quoting 260. barbamz:


Source. Some sharp drop of pressure in the UK overnight, umm. They must be in the eye of a Cat5, no? Fasten our seat belts, folks! More.
And yes, severe weather over northwestern Germany continued all night, too. Very bumpy ride for many, this night, and more to come.



Totally off topic...well, except that those people who have likely won, will let frackers have what they want :(

Looks like the scaremongering bigots have won. And won by scaring the people with the most to lose, by pushing leaving the EU as a remedy. But many of those people are just not bright enough to see it (and not into looking into actual politics to see, beyond The Sun or Daily Mail propaganda). I told someone, a leave win at least makes it unlikely for mass riots, being far right racist groups supporting leave, would be much more likely to riot from a loss. I have come to like the protections to workers the EU offers. I never had a paid vacation, until I moved to the UK. I never experienced not having to overtly worry about health care costs before moving to the UK. Bigotry blinds them, sadly. Though I have always thought since moving here, that there is an underlying bigotry to much of the UK, especially in the north, where I have always lived, I thought they would see beyond bigotry. Especially since their main bigotry, against Muslims, wouldn't be effected by an EU exit anyway. But this anyway, predominantly by people who think that those born wealthy are their natural rulers. So, I guess I shouldn't be surprised :(


Am in a controversial mode now...what's with the new breed of doomcasters here?! Taking 300 hour models as fact?! I know peeps have always had a play with them, but seems lately they're acting like it's what is coming for sure!
Well 0z say no storm. Well back to the drawing boards. No more storms for the US. BOC and recurves.
Quoting 266. HurricaneAndre:

Well 0z say no storm. Well back to the drawing boards. No more storms for the US. BOC and recurves.


And, the 0z GFS has just now picked up on the Euro's Pacific storm system. Observe:



I think there may be something to the theory that a Pacific system may draw some energy away from the BOC low.

But, remember---chances are there WILL be a storm named Earl.
Quoting 262. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Looks like the GFS has reached the 'drop the storm' phase on the 0z run. Buries the vorticity into Central America.


This might be why:




Note low pressure disturbance in Pacific. Didn't the Euro see this, too?
Quoting 253. daddyjames:



He's hoping that the weaker systems we are currently seeing will ultimately decrease the TCHP (Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential) in the Caribbean so that storms in the future cannot tap into that resource.




Sounds reasonable to me.
Can we get an invest outside of the BOC already...?
We never get anything fun in the Atlantic no more. Oh wrll. Maybe I should move to Mexico. They have more activity than us.
Quoting 266. HurricaneAndre:

Well 0z say no storm. Well back to the drawing boards. No more storms for the US. BOC and recurves.

...it's mid-June. You're gonna feel pretty stupid if a major hurricane hits the US in two months.
Quoting 272. TropicalAnalystwx13:


...it's mid-June. You're gonna feel pretty stupid if a major hurricane hits the US in two months.
Well I want to be able to experience one more before I go off to school, well away from the coast.
Quoting 272. TropicalAnalystwx13:


...it's mid-June. You're gonna feel pretty stupid if a major hurricane hits the US in two months.


I would say the chances are something forming east of the Bahamas and heading towards the west near the East Coast of Florida and a Major Hurricane would be lurking to the east are pretty high.
Well the results are in for the most part and we are now leaving the EU
Quoting 275. wunderkidcayman:

Well the results are in for the most part and we are now leaving the EU


What do you think about it?
Quoting 259. Loduck:

*she*I like that phrase much better :)good read-although I don't understand all that math and physics stuff they weren't my best subjects in college *~*. But, one thing that I did get from it was that the GFS model is better at predicting TC genesis in the Caribbean and GOM than the ECMWF. Thanks :)


My apologies - she (not he).
Over 10 days out. Take a snapshot of that, and compare it to what the observations are on 7/9!!!!

Quoting 268. pureet1948:



This might be why:




Note low pressure disturbance in Pacific. Didn't the Euro see this, too?
Quoting 276. daddyjames:



What do you think about it?


I'm for it for the most part there are some parts that makes me wanna stay with the EU but for the most part leave is the best way to go and to use and mix up trumps slogan leaving EU will "make UK great again" lol
Quoting 276. daddyjames:



What do you think about it?


Britain was never into the whole EU ethos, with it's free borders meaning uncontrolled immigration, and ridiculous laws which everyone had to abide by, including the system of subsidies to poorer countries, which was abused and led to the Greek debacle.

We wanted the common market, but the price for that became too much.
Quoting 266. HurricaneAndre:

Well 0z say no storm. Well back to the drawing boards. No more storms for the US. BOC and recurves.


Yeah, you're totally right. We're totally gonna expect complete run-to-run consistency. That's it, guys. Pack your bags and go home. People here were right; the US is permanently shielded from tropical cyclones now.

/sarcasm

Opinion hasn't changed. We still need to watch the area until we're certain how much land it's going to interact with in the vicinity of the Yucatan. If future runs drop it, I don't mind rescinding. But for now...
Why and how the UK voted to leave the EU.

Quoting 272. TropicalAnalystwx13:


...it's mid-June. You're gonna feel pretty stupid if a major hurricane hits the US in two months.


More like late June has its the 24th
95L looks great and a tropical depression or tropical storm seems too be forming at this hr if this trend continues we could see code red at 8am or special tropical weather outlook issue And the recon could vary we'll find a tropical depression or storm when they head in. But I would like too see 95L move this a tab more N off the coast then we really can have some fun
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01
15:00 PM JST June 24 2016
===========================
South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 14.3N 114.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 11 knots.

Dvorak intensity: T2.0

Forecast and intensity
=================
24 HRS: 14.5N 112.7E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
I've been avoiding the blog these last few days because I can't take this kind of angst. Well, back into hibernation. Maybe one day people will learn not hedge their bets on a single model run.
288. VR46L
Quoting 265. mitthbevnuruodo:



Totally off topic...well, except that those people who have likely won, will let frackers have what they want :(

Looks like the scaremongering bigots have won. And won by scaring the people with the most to lose, by pushing leaving the EU as a remedy. But many of those people are just not bright enough to see it (and not into looking into actual politics to see, beyond The Sun or Daily Mail propaganda). I told someone, a leave win at least makes it unlikely for mass riots, being far right racist groups supporting leave, would be much more likely to riot from a loss. I have come to like the protections to workers the EU offers. I never had a paid vacation, until I moved to the UK. I never experienced not having to overtly worry about health care costs before moving to the UK. Bigotry blinds them, sadly. Though I have always thought since moving here, that there is an underlying bigotry to much of the UK, especially in the north, where I have always lived, I thought they would see beyond bigotry. Especially since their main bigotry, against Muslims, wouldn't be effected by an EU exit anyway. But this anyway, predominantly by people who think that those born wealthy are their natural rulers. So, I guess I shouldn't be surprised :(


Am in a controversial mode now...what's with the new breed of doomcasters here?! Taking 300 hour models as fact?! I know peeps have always had a play with them, but seems lately they're acting like it's what is coming for sure!


Totally devastated by what happened . Can not comprehend it .
95..too.far.south
Quoting 289. islander101010:

95..too.far.south


what you seeing may not be 95L i think the center has reform too the N i put the new center at 20N 91W never mind that little area to the S it has no center what so ever has far i can see

Quoting 260. barbamz:


Source. Some sharp drop of pressure in the UK overnight, umm. They must be in the eye of a Cat5, no? Fasten our seat belts, folks! More.
And yes, severe weather over northwestern Germany continued all night, too. Very bumpy ride for many, this night, and more to come.


Calm and warm over Southern Spain but in a speech the Prime Minister Rajoy looked like he just lost more than his wallet as he now has to face paying a lot more to be in the EU after the UK and their cash baled out.
Needless to say the UK prime minister Cameron resigned this morning.

We are expecting a lot of heat and from the Canary Islands a lot of Saharan dust redirected towards southern Spain.

The Forecast for our area of Europe over the next 3 months is to be a lot warmer and drier than usual, so we are preparing for the fires which will inevitably arrive soon.
any one here the news about the UK?
Quoting 292. Tazmanian:

any one here the news about the UK?


Yeah I stayed up all night watching it live
Quoting 293. wunderkidcayman:



Yeah I stayed up all night watching it live


They voted to leave the EU and the PM is resingining.
Good Morning; the snapshot forecast for Conus today and current look. The worst of the recent bad weather has almost pushed offshore with a few pockets left to go but not as severe as the last several days. And the heat continues......

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
305 AM EDT Fri Jun 24 2016

Valid 12Z Fri Jun 24 2016 - 12Z Sun Jun 26 2016

...Severe thunderstorms possible for portions of the northern plains and
the Southeast/southern Mid-Atlantic...

...Above average temperatures expected for much of the central U.S...





The 5:00 PM EST highs for today: and it is only late June.................................



Quoting 288. VR46L:



Totally devastated by what happened . Can not comprehend it .


VR! - I would ask how you are doing, but I think I may know.
I am kind of blown away. Seen a couple of reports that people who voted for leaving are in shock too. Said they "intended it as a 'protest' vote, but never imagined it would "actually happen".
I guess its like getting really ticked off, telling your partner you never want to see them again, storming off, then returning home and being surprised to find a "Dear John/Joan" letter.
"Why did they leave? I did not really mean what I said".
CZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of
Campeche in association with a broad area of low pressure. This
system has become less organized since yesterday and the aircraft
reconnaissance mission scheduled for this afternoon has been
cancelled. Significant development of the low is not expected
before it moves inland over eastern Mexico on Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Forecaster Blake
Quoting 298. Climate175:

CZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of
Campeche in association with a broad area of low pressure. This
system has become less organized since yesterday and the aircraft
reconnaissance mission scheduled for this afternoon has been
cancelled. Significant development of the low is not expected
before it moves inland over eastern Mexico on Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

Forecaster Blake



thats a rap up for 95L next
Ensemble support from the GFS for the Gulf storm seem to be fading from 2 days ago.
Quoting 289. islander101010:

95..too.far.south


Quoting 299. Tazmanian:




thats a rap up for 95L next


The mid-level circulation is displaced from the LLC. The LLC is going to be a bit too close to land. Too far south, and over water for too short of a time, to allow for significant organization. That's my 2 cents!
In terms of the pending Atlantic season and SSTs, the Caribbean, Florida/Bahamas region, and the Gulf are already there.  Still some catch up to do in that region of the Central Atlantic MDR from the Coast of Africa/Cape Verde Islands to a few hundred miles to the East of the Lesser Antilles:




Quoting 257. Kenfa03:

Never heard that term. Is that something new?
"Global warming"? No, it's a term that, much like "climate change", has been around and used by scientists for many decades. Surprised you hadn't heard it before now...

(FWIW, the word "floods" has been around since ancient times.)

Since we're all weighing in, I'll just say this: yesterday's vote is a win for ignorance and demagoguery.
Quoting 300. Climate175:

Ensemble support from the GFS for the Gulf storm seem to be fading from 2 days ago.

looks like it was a ghost storm
% lowered on two and recon cancelled

I think this is a wrong move by NHC IMO I think convection will reorganise as center of system now offshore and system will ramp up I think if anything recon should have been postponed until later like tonight or something
Quoting 301. daddyjames:





The mid-level circulation is displaced from the LLC. The LLC is going to be a bit too close to land. Too far south, and over water for too short of a time, to allow for significant organization. That's my 2 cents!
And those are some good 2 cents!
Quoting 300. Climate175:

Ensemble support from the GFS for the Gulf storm seem to be fading from 2 days ago.


I still say W Carib/GOM storm will happen this is just GFS standard MO for it to show a storm then drop it just before it forms then bring it back
Quoting 300. Climate175:

Ensemble support from the GFS for the Gulf storm seem to be fading from 2 days ago.


It's not fading, it simply is building the ridge up and pushing any vorticity into Central America, and onwards into the EPAC, instead of the BOC.

The ridge over the Gulf is consistent with what the ECMWF has been showing all along - so instead of the ECMWF coming over to the GFS, the GFS went over to the ECMWF.

Only for one run though, so we'll still if that remains "consistent" over time.
Quoting 305. wunderkidcayman:

% lowered on two and recon cancelled

I think this is a wrong move by NHC IMO I think convection will reorganise as center of system now offshore and system will ramp up I think if anything recon should have been postponed until later like tonight or something


there 30kt of shear over 95L right now

Quoting 306. Climate175:

And those are some good 2 cents!


Having said what I said, it'll prolly spin up - only because I said it wouldn't ;)

Edit: Not that my words have any power of TS genesis, just my penchant for zagging when I should have zigged.
Quoting 308. daddyjames:



It's not fading, it simply is building the ridge up and pushing any vorticity into Central America, and onwards into the EPAC, instead of the BOC.

The ridge over the Gulf is consistent with what the ECMWF has been showing all along - so instead of the ECMWF coming over to the FS, the GFS went over to the ECMWF.

Only for one run though, so we'll still if that remains "consistent" over time.
Either way, this time of year is still not when most the action get's rolling, June is the month of BOC storms and storms that affect the Florida area from the SW, and as weathermanwannabe pointed out, there is still some water in the Atlantic that still has to do a bit more warming over the next 1-2 months.
Quoting 309. Tazmanian:



there 30kt of shear over 95L right now




Umm no right now there is only 10-15kts shear and it's falling in the area so not a problem
Quoting 312. wunderkidcayman:



Umm no right now there is only 10-15kts shear and it's falling in the area so not a problem


ok
Quoting 311. Climate175:

Either way, this time of year is still not when most the action get's rolling, June is the month of BOC storms and storms that affect the Florida area from the SW, and as weathermanwannabe pointed out, there is still some water in the Atlantic that still has to do a bit more warming over the next 1-2 months.


Nothing but time and warm water? Sounds like a nice relaxing bath.
It goes without saying, just based upon current SST's, that the biggest potential threat to the US this year will be a Cape Verde storm that would avoid significant land interaction with Hispanola/Cuba and sneak into the Gulf near the Yucatan Channel or have a clean shot to South Florida through the very warm waters around the Bahamas. Time will tell:


ECMWF continues to reign as the #1 global model.
Quoting 314. daddyjames:



Nothing but time and warm water? Sounds like a nice relaxing bath.
Yep, then maybe the storms will do something like this.
Quoting 317. Climate175:

Yep, then maybe the storms will do something like this.


Possible, but personally I am don't think development over the MDR as being a huge factor this year (given the steering and climatology this year). If you shift those storms over west, just east of the Caribbean and US - I would buy that.
And while there is currently plenty of SAL suppression off the Coast of Africa, the wave train continues to look very healthy going into July:




The interesting issue coming up is the lack of E-Pac storms so far and whether that pattern will continue into August and September. Dr. Klotzbach and other have written papers on the inverse relationship between the E-Pac and Atlantic basin (less in E-Pac more on the Atlantic/Caribbean side) and that observation will really be put to a pretty observable test this year if we don't see that many E-Pac storms during the Atlantic peak period. And particularly as to waves that form into storms in that area of the Western Caribbean and BOC where these systems often "borrow" convection and moisture from the ITCZ around Central America on either side (Atlantic and Pacific) as a MJO pulse comes through the area.
Quoting 318. daddyjames:



Possible, but personally I am don't think development over the MDR as being a huge factor this year (given the steering and climatology this year). If you shift those storms over west, just east of the Caribbean and US - I would buy that.
I kind of think a mix of some MDR and homegrown, the conditions out there are looking more favorable than they did last year, as well as the Caribbean obviously, it's just the annual switch will turn on there soon.
322. beell
Quoting 262. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Looks like the GFS has reached the 'drop the storm' phase on the 0z run. Buries the vorticity into Central America.


The GFS has been rock solid in depicting an area of disturbed weather in the SW Caribbean. Perhaps a very active ITCZ or extension of the monsoon trough-with a random twave as the wild card.

What was not clear was the mechanism responsible for lifting this north. It does seem fairly clear that steering would push anything west-at least in the mid-levels

All 3 frames below-500 mb heights, winds, vorticity-valid next Monday afternoon


Tuesday's 18Z


Today's 00Z


Today's 06Z
323. elioe
Good Juhannusaatto afternoon from Finland, and happy Independence Day for the United Kingdom!

Currently +22 C at Tampere and sunshine. Forecast low for coming night +16 C. No precipitation nominally forecast for us for the next 24 hours, however, for some reason we are under a heavy thunderstorm warning. Good weather to go and check the bonfire on the beach and stay there all night, I guess...

But the forecast for Monday is something I've never seen before. 33.4 mm of rain forecast for a 12-hour period! Such precipitation is not unprecedented, but normally it's very localised and not seen in the nominal forecast for many days prior.

And I don't worry about GFS and its ensemble dropping the Gulf of Mexico storm. We've seen such behavior before.
Dang!

An "Act of God" stopped Remain from winning the election in the UK yesterday:

Link
325. beell
Met Office fears Brexit would damage its climate models
02/11/2016

"...The Met Office received £2.3 million in EU funding in 2014, a spokesperson told Climate Home. Its revenue for the same period was £220.8m, it said.

The Exeter-based agency’s £120 million (US$170m) budget for 2014/15 is almost entirely provided by UK government funding and receipts from the aviation sector.

The office, in turn, pays out £51.2m as part of international commitments to meteorological centres, some of which goes to the EU’s satellite agency EUMETSAT and medium-range weather forecaster, ECMWF.

The UK’s top climate change envoy Sir David King described the Met Office as the country’s “jewel in the crown”, and whose modelling of future climate impacts was “the best in the world”.1

British science was “extraordinarily strong” in part due to the money it received from EU grants and attracted “top rate research academics” due to free mobility through the 28-member bloc. “If we lose out on that’s a real disbenefit,” he said..."


climatechangenews.com
Quoting 293. wunderkidcayman:



Yeah I stayed up all night watching it live
Google News is a pretty good place to get news.
Quoting 325. beell:

Met Office fears Brexit would damage its climate models
02/11/2016

"...The Met Office received £2.3 million in EU funding in 2014, a spokesperson told Climate Home. Its revenue for the same period was £220.8m, it said.

The Exeter-based agency’s £120 million (US$170m) budget for 2014/15 is almost entirely provided by UK government funding and receipts from the aviation sector.

The office, in turn, pays out £51.2m as part of international commitments to meteorological centres, some of which goes to the EU’s satellite agency EUMETSAT and medium-range weather forecaster, ECMWF.

The UK’s top climate change envoy Sir David King described the Met Office as the country’s “jewel in the crown”, and whose modelling of future climate impacts was “the best in the world”.1

British science was “extraordinarily strong” in part due to the money it received from EU grants and attracted “top rate research academics” due to free mobility through the 28-member bloc. “If we lose out on that’s a real disbenefit,” he said..."


climatechangenews.com


The main reason this vote came out the way it did was all about securing its borders. People all across the world are concerned about potential terrorist attacks and citizens of Britain and the USA have had enough. This Brexit vote will have a trickle down effect even here in the US with regards to the presidential election coming up in November.
Quoting 316. Tropicsweatherpr:

ECMWF continues to reign as the #1 global model.


By far and the GFS is continuing to fall further down the scale heck the CMC is rated better than the GFS now. That's pretty sad.
Quoting 327. StormTrackerScott:



The main reason this vote came out the way it did was all about securing its borders. People all across the world are concerned about potential terrorist attacks and citizens of Britain and the USA have had enough. This Brexit vote will have a trickle down effect even here in the US with regards to the presidential election coming up in November.

You're in for a shock on November 8 is all I'll say.
Quoting 327. StormTrackerScott:



The main reason this vote came out the way it did was all about securing its borders. People all across the world are concerned about potential terrorist attacks and citizens of Britain and the USA have had enough. This Brexit vote will have a trickle down effect even here in the US with regards to the presidential election coming up in November.


The demographics of the vote tells the story, and I fear it is one we will see here as well. The older, white, less educated came out in droves and got what they wanted.

Now we get to watch them get hoisted by their own petard. Interesting times.
Quoting 328. StormTrackerScott:



By far and the GFS is continuing to fall further down the scale heck the CMC is rated better than the GFS now. That's pretty sad.


Ok Scott, then we better not see any posts from the GFS:). Been really dry lately, heck it's been hard to find a cumulus cloud.
332. VR46L
Quoting 297. daddyjames:



VR! - I would ask how you are doing, but I think I may know.
I am kind of blown away. Seen a couple of reports that people who voted for leaving are in shock too. Said they "intended it as a 'protest' vote, but never imagined it would "actually happen".
I guess its like getting really ticked off, telling your partner you never want to see them again, storming off, then returning home and being surprised to find a "Dear John/Joan" letter.
"Why did they leave? I did not really mean what I said".


I can't even yet try to explain how serious it is for EU ... Britain and Ireland will be so badly effected . Britain really shot itself in the foot .. Scotland is going to leave the UK..... and Northern Ireland I dread to think what will happen ,the last 21 years of pretty peaceful times could be gone in a flash ...

anyway also unimpressed with 95L

Quoting 331. Bucsboltsfan:



Ok Scott, then we better not see any posts from the GFS:). Been really dry lately, heck it's been hard to find a cumulus cloud.


Yeah rain should return starting today. Looking like a healthy seabreeze collision across my area later today.
Quoting 303. Neapolitan:

"Global warming"? No, it's a term that, much like "climate change", has been around and used by scientists for many decades. Surprised you hadn't heard it before now...

(FWIW, the word "floods" has been around since ancient times.)

Since we're all weighing in, I'll just say this: yesterday's vote is a win for ignorance and demagoguery.
Yeah, they have haven't they? Floods.

Pretty sure the OP was referring to use of the adjective, "globally-warmed," to describe recent flooding in W Virginia in his/her response to the commenter at 222. Not the words, "global warming" as your free interpretation mentions. Maybe I'll make up a hyphenated adjective. How about "situationally-exaggeristic"?
Quoting 332. VR46L:



I can't even yet try to explain how serious it is for EU ... Britain and Ireland will be so badly effected . Britain really shot itself in the foot .. Scotland is going to leave the UK..... and Northern Ireland I dread to think what will happen ,the last 21 years of pretty peaceful times could be gone in a flash ...

anyway also unimpressed with 95L




That thing isn't gonna develop...NHC cancelled Recon. No surprise, thought they would anyway.
Quoting 334. Barefootontherocks:

Yeah, they have haven't they? Floods.

Pretty sure the OP was referring to use of the adjective, "globally-warmed," to describe recent flooding in W Virginia in his/her response to the commenter at 222. Not the words, "global warming" as your free interpretation mentions. Maybe I'll make up a hyphenated adjective. How about "situationally-exaggeristic"?




Better luck next time. But thanks for playing! ;-)
With 95L not expected to develop now and the GFS not as strong in predicting the GOM TC anymore...looks like a lull in activity is coming for the Atlantic.
Philip Klotzbach @philklotzbach 2h
Vertical wind shear has averaged above-normal over past 30 days in Caribbean & below-normal across tropical Atlantic
I know the UK vote is serious business, so please don't take this wrong...
Just ran across a June 24 AFP photo of "Vote Leave" leader Boris Johnson, and I'm wondering if he goes to the same hairdresser as... well, take a look at the link.
;)
Hope you all have a good Friday and weekend. Enjoy!
Quoting 336. Neapolitan:





Better luck next time. But thanks for playing! ;-)
I take it you got my point. Have a good one.
Quoting 337. HurricaneFan:

With 95L not expected to develop now and the GFS not as strong in predicting the GOM TC anymore...looks like a lull in activity is coming for the Atlantic.
With the set up could be a very quiet hurricane season.
We definitely need a storm to track and I'm not talking about another BOC storm either....
Japan - more extreme rainfall to come.
"Two people were slightly injured and about 80 buildings damaged Thursday in the western Japan prefecture of Hiroshima, while evacuation orders or advisories were issued to some 703,000 people in five prefectures in northern Kyushu in southwestern Japan as torrential rain hit those areas. The Japan Meteorological Agency also warned residents in those regions of the risk of landslides and swollen rivers due to more heavy rain expected from Friday morning through Saturday. The weather agency forecast up to 100 millimeters of rainfall in northern Kyushu over a 24-hour period through 6 p.m. Friday, and 200-300 mm over the following 24 hours. According to the agency, 626.5 mm of rain has fallen since Saturday at Mt. Aso in Kumamoto Prefecture, hit by major quakes two months ago, close to the monthly average for June (...)"
Kyushu deluge continues, 700,000 people urged to evacuate
Japan Times, June 23. Himawari-8, airmass (archive, till about 1430GMT today) :

Look at this pretty effect on the islands south of the Archipelago...
Quoting 325. beell:

Met Office fears Brexit would damage its climate models
02/11/2016

"...The Met Office received £2.3 million in EU funding in 2014, a spokesperson told Climate Home. Its revenue for the same period was £220.8m, it said.

The Exeter-based agency’s £120 million (US$170m) budget for 2014/15 is almost entirely provided by UK government funding and receipts from the aviation sector.

The office, in turn, pays out £51.2m as part of international commitments to meteorological centres, some of which goes to the EU’s satellite agency EUMETSAT and medium-range weather forecaster, ECMWF.

The UK’s top climate change envoy Sir David King described the Met Office as the country’s “jewel in the crown”, and whose modelling of future climate impacts was “the best in the world”.1

British science was “extraordinarily strong” in part due to the money it received from EU grants and attracted “top rate research academics” due to free mobility through the 28-member bloc. “If we lose out on that’s a real disbenefit,” he said..."


climatechangenews.comLol always follow the money for global agendas the elite rules.

exaggeristic sounds like rejected syllables from a Mary Poppins song.
346. RayT
Quoting 335. 62901IL:



That thing isn't gonna develop...NHC cancelled Recon. No surprise, thought they would anyway.

I agree. the storm isnt looking good, and it's moving rather quickly. I really dont think it will stay over the open ocean long enough to turn into anything other than a depression. Even that may be pushing the envelope.
The British pull-out will have an indirect impact on weather issues; depending on how much the British pound devalues, and as their economy shakes out over the next few years (if this is a long term situation), funding might be a little tight for a while at places like the UKMet Office in terms of upgrades to their models and such........
Quoting 337. HurricaneFan:

With 95L not expected to develop now and the GFS not as strong in predicting the GOM TC anymore...looks like a lull in activity is coming for the Atlantic.

Maybe, but conditions still appear favorable for development in early July with the passing CCKW and MJO regardless of whether the GFS dropped this specific storm. I probably sound like a broken record at this point. :)
O Lord
Quoting 327. StormTrackerScott:



The main reason this vote came out the way it did was all about securing its borders. People all across the world are concerned about potential terrorist attacks and citizens of Britain and the USA have had enough. This Brexit vote will have a trickle down effect even here in the US with regards to the presidential election coming up in November.


When are Floridians going to standup to Rick Scott the Anti climate change guy who still keeps state workers from using the term climate change?

We small gub'ment types are waiting.
I'm trying to figure out where they come up with 30 mph winds for 95L. The center of this disorganized mess basically passed over my house, yet yesterday, last night and today there has been nothing more than a light breeze. Got a decent brief thunderstorm last night, but not much wind. Most standard rainy season storms produce more rain and wind.
Quoting 348. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Maybe, but conditions still appear favorable for development in early July with the passing CCKW and MJO regardless of whether the GFS dropped this specific storm. I probably sound like a broken record at this point. :)
I think back in August 2015 a passing CCKW helped spin up Danny and Erica and conditions were much more hostile then than they are now.If the storm has disappeared for at least 4 runs in a row then perhaps it will not develop but I don't think July will end up with no storms at all.
Quoting 303. Neapolitan:

"Global warming"? No, it's a term that, much like "climate change", has been around and used by scientists for many decades. Surprised you hadn't heard it before now...

(FWIW, the word "floods" has been around since ancient times.)

Since we're all weighing in, I'll just say this: yesterday's vote is a win for ignorance and demagoguery.


Sometimes a society has to take step back to go forward, humans react differently as to what is considered progress. I still feel that the long term trend is for a United Europe, there will be just now a different path taken in the decades to come starting with it seems Scotland leaving the UK.
Winter has really arrived down under

Link
Link

Sydney obs

Obs closest to my location
357. IDTH
Quoting 328. StormTrackerScott:



By far and the GFS is continuing to fall further down the scale heck the CMC is rated better than the GFS now. That's pretty sad.

Except the GFS nailed long range development with the past 2-3 storms. Sure it dropped it in the short range, but the GFS is not a bad model.
Quoting 350. Patrap:



When are Floridians going to standup to Rick Scott the Anti climate change guy who still keeps state workers from using the term climate change?

We small gub'ment types are waiting.


When Democrats and left leaning independents vote in greater numbers in non Presidential Election years. That issue is nationwide though. Might go look up some studies to find out why, it's always interested me.
Quoting 329. TropicalAnalystwx13:

You're in for a shock on November 8 is all I'll say.
Trump campaign headquarters, evening, November 8th:

360. MahFL
Quoting 330. Xyrus2000:



The older, white, less educated came out in droves...


How do you know they were less educated ?
GFS and ECMWF has changed the long-range trajectory of the MJO toward the Indian Ocean instead of the Atlantic so it's no surprised the GFS dropped development.
Is da mojo rising?


Quoting 329. TropicalAnalystwx13:


You're in for a shock on November 8 is all I'll say.
Yeah, it s definitely going to be shocking as it might be the first time in history the US president becomes someone who is under criminal investigation. The result is definitely going to be "shocking" either way.
Quoting 341. help4u:

With the set up could be a very quiet hurricane season.


It could also be a very active hurricane season. You won't often see much activity in the tropics during the months of June and July. It's during the months of August, September and October that the tropics can come alive. You cannot judge at all by what you see during June and July so don't get into a huff just cause some little tropical wave falls apart over the BOC. And for G-ds sake, stop putting so much into what you see the GFS putting out everyday. It's just a computer model and computer's don't do very well in forcasting the formation of future storms days in advance.
Quoting 257. Kenfa03:

Never heard that term. Is that something new?


While I'd love to take credit for inventing the term "globally-warmed," a Google search reveals 375,000 hits involving the phrase - including some using the hyphenated form I prefer. It doesn't appear to be recognized by the dictionary yet, but I think it is a perfect term to describe events that are caused or enhanced by global warming. We have globally-warmed fires out west, and a globally-warmed heat wave enveloping much of the country. Hopefully, others start using the term more widely as well so we can get it recognized by the dictionary powers that be.
367. MahFL
Quoting 363. Patrap:

Is da mojo rising?


It's half way across the Pacific, be in the Atlantic in about 8 days :



368. ariot
Quoting 364. NoobDave:


Yeah, it s definitely going to be shocking as it might be the first time in history the US president becomes someone who is under criminal investigation. The result is definitely going to be "shocking" either way.



Both current U.S. candidates are under Federal Investigation.

Previously in 2016, four of the governors running were also under investigation.

We have also had instances when an unindicted co-conspirator ran for president.

This isn't new. Nothing is, except for the fact that when we should be pulling together we are falling apart. :-)
Quoting 366. ClimateChange:



While I'd love to take credit for inventing the term "globally-warmed," a Google search reveals 375,000 hits involving the phrase - including some using the hyphenated form I prefer. It doesn't appear to be recognized by the dictionary yet, but I think it is a perfect term to describe events that are caused or enhanced by global warming. We have globally-warmed fires out west, and a globally-warmed heat wave enveloping much of the country. Hopefully, others start using the term more widely as well so we can get it recognized by the dictionary powers that be.



Indeed as all weather takes place today in this warmer,wetter global atmosphere.

This is Not your or my fathers atmosphere in any sense.
No way to know yet if this vote is good or bad yet, its not even 24 hours old and will take up to two years to be completed. Buy low markets always over react and correct themselves.
Really nice here in panama city. Heading to the beach later.
Quoting 360. MahFL:



How do you know they were less educated ?
Science and demographics:



Sorry guys that I screwed up. I'm a screw up. Please forgive me and I need to get better
Quoting 372. Neapolitan:

Demographic data tell all:






Mostly due to the fact they were older and college was definitely less prominent when they grew up. Doesn't mean they are dumb.
Baseball sized hail was reported due north of Raleigh at the VA-NC border. Photo [Link]

Quoting 352. washingtonian115:

I think back in August 2015 a passing CCKW helped spin up Danny and Erica and conditions were much more hostile then than they are now.If the storm has disappeared for at least 4 runs in a row then perhaps it will not develop but I don't think July will end up with no storms at all.


I believe you're right, I remember Dr Masters saying that about Danny
Quoting 374. VAbeachhurricanes:



Mostly due to the fact they were older and college was definitely less prominent when they grew up. Doesn't mean they are dumb.
No one used the term "dumb", of course; the term used was "less well educated", and as the Guardian graphic shows, those with better education were more likely to vote to stay, while those with less education were more likely to vote to leave.
Quoting 376. Neapolitan:

No one used the term "dumb", of course; the term used was "less well educated", and as the Guardian graphic shows, those with better education were more likely to vote to stay, while those with less education were more likely to vote to stay.


Yes I get no one used the term "dumb", but correlating less education with a certain vote outcome definitely has that connotation.
378. MahFL
Quoting 374. VAbeachhurricanes:



Mostly due to the fact they were older and college was definitely less prominent when they grew up. Doesn't mean they are dumb.


I don't understand what the individual circles mean in that chart.
The blog is like a funeral home today.Out until something of interest happens.
Quoting 378. MahFL:



I don't understand what the individual circles mean in that chart.



It's a scatter plot, I'm assuming each dot represents each of the districts that voted in the election. How far left or right the dot is represents the percentage result of the district for remain or leave. Then up or down represents the median voter in the district based on the scale in the Y-axis.
I just went up on my roof to take in the view of the heat soaked country surroundings here.
The Saharan pink dust is so thick I cant see the local mountains very well and as I predicted / said this morning the bush wildfires have started with thick smoke in the air to the north of me. Probably the weather really is going to be a long hot summer.
I wonder if we will get many British tourists now that their £ exchange rate has dropped a bit. Still the less of them around the less the pollution, noise and drunken fights; so it cant all be bad, in fact life without any of the above would be positively good, all in, from the dust to the drunks!
382. MahFL
Quoting 380. VAbeachhurricanes:




It's a scatter plot, I'm assuming each dot represents each of the districts that voted in the election. How far left or right the dot is represents the percentage result of the district for remain or leave. Then up or down represents the median voter in the district based on the scale in the Y-axis.


A lot less people go to College in the UK compared to the USA.
Quoting 325. beell:

Met Office fears Brexit would damage its climate models
02/11/2016

"...The Met Office received £2.3 million in EU funding in 2014, a spokesperson told Climate Home. Its revenue for the same period was £220.8m, it said.

The Exeter-based agency’s £120 million (US$170m) budget for 2014/15 is almost entirely provided by UK government funding and receipts from the aviation sector.

The office, in turn, pays out £51.2m as part of international commitments to meteorological centres, some of which goes to the EU’s satellite agency EUMETSAT and medium-range weather forecaster, ECMWF.

The UK’s top climate change envoy Sir David King described the Met Office as the country’s “jewel in the crown”, and whose modelling of future climate impacts was “the best in the world”.1

British science was “extraordinarily strong” in part due to the money it received from EU grants and attracted “top rate research academics” due to free mobility through the 28-member bloc. “If we lose out on that’s a real disbenefit,” he said..."


climatechangenews.com


That's a shame, but things will hopefully sort themselves out. One good thing is that the Met Office is currently constructing one of the world's most powerful super computers (It'll be at least top 10 if not top 5 in the world by the time it's complete) which'll massively improve the UKMET model and allow for higher resolution.
Quoting 325. beell:

Met Office fears Brexit would damage its climate models
...

More on that topic, concerning "the Euro" (ECMWF; located in Reading/UK), Eumetsat and more:
Could A United Kingdom Exit From The EU Affect Weather Forecasts?
Marshall Shepherd, Forbes, June 24, 2016

ECMWF statement on the UK voting to leave the EU
24 June 2016
Quoting 384. barbamz:


More on that topic, concerning "the Euro" (ECMWF; located in Reading/UK), Eumetsat and more:
Could A United Kingdom Exit From The EU Affect Weather Forecasts?
Marshall Shepherd, Forbes, June 24, 2016

ECMWF statement on the UK voting to leave the EU
24 June 2016


They'll be fine the cooperation will stay, just like how NASA and Roscosmos kinda do their own thing while the rest of the two governments bristle at each other.

Quoting 374. VAbeachhurricanes:



Mostly due to the fact they were older and college was definitely less prominent when they grew up. Doesn't mean they are dumb.
Well it may also mean that the richer and better educated voters had much more to gain If they were to stay in the union. The nannies and cleaners will simply vote for whatever they wish for while rich british shareholders will most likely opt to stay in the union because it benefits them. I wouldn t give that graph much meaning, the majority has spoken.
Quoting 370. VAbeachhurricanes:

No way to know yet if this vote is good or bad yet, its not even 24 hours old and will take up to two years to be completed. Buy low markets always over react and correct themselves.


It could take longer than 2 years. Short term shocks are to be expected, but I have my fingers/toes/arms/legs/everything crossed that the UK will come out alright. If the UK is good at anything, it's getting itself out of tough/messy situations.

I'm really not surprised by the vote - it's been a long time coming and unfortunately previous/the current government have neglected very rough and deprived areas.

This is really going to shake up the EU big time though. It means that countries currently in the EU will likely have to pay more as the UK was the 4th biggest contributor with over £70 billion annually, as well as other countries seeking their own eu referendums.

Staying on topic, it's currently 20C and cloudy with a bit of wind.
Quoting 377. VAbeachhurricanes:



Yes I get no one used the term "dumb", but correlating less education with a certain vote outcome definitely has that connotation.


No it doesn't. It does, however, suggest that there are very real differences in those two groups in regards to the referendum and it's implications. Multiple studies have confirmed the causal relation of educational attainment and civic knowledge in both the U.S. and U.K.
Quoting 371. Patrap:
Really nice here in panama city. Heading to the beach later.


Holy Moly!! You entered the Rick Scott state voluntarily? LOL!! Welcome back Pat! Spend lots of money while you're here...
390. beell
Quoting 384. barbamz:


More on that topic, concerning "the Euro" (ECMWF; located in Reading/UK), Eumetsat and more:
Could A United Kingdom Exit From The EU Affect Weather Forecasts?
Marshall Shepherd, Forbes, June 24, 2016

ECMWF statement on the UK voting to leave the EU
24 June 2016


Thanks-I knew there had to be more out there. Was in a rush!
Currently surrounded west and east by heavy rain producing thunderstorms; Waccamaw could see another 1-2 inches. The NAM was showing an area of strong thunderstorms moving from Charlotte to Myrtle Beach by tonight.

Quoting 381. PlazaRed:

I just went up on my roof to take in the view of the heat soaked country surroundings here.
The Saharan pink dust is so thick I cant see the local mountains very well and as I predicted / said this morning the bush wildfires have started with thick smoke in the air to the north of me. Probably the weather really is going to be a long hot summer.
I wonder if we will get many British tourists now that their £ exchange rate has dropped a bit. Still the less of them around the less the pollution, noise and drunken fights; so it cant all be bad, in fact life without any of the above would be positively good, all in, from the dust to the drunks!


I don't know if the number of British tourists would shrink, maybe because you might have to count them and Scots differently now (not that many Scots like to identify as British from what I've heard).

The drunken British fights are something I never understood. I remember reading somewhere about someone moving from London to Rio de Janeiro and noticing that while the amount of drinking hadn't really decreased too much, the fighting was nowhere to be seen. Asking about why that was to a local, he responded "because here in Rio you don't know who that person knows."
Stocks are falling, I wish I had some discretionary to toss around
Quoting 387. Envoirment:



It could take longer than 2 years. Short term shocks are to be expected, but I have my fingers/toes/arms/legs/everything crossed that the UK will come out alright. If the UK is good at anything, it's getting itself out of tough/messy situations.

I'm really not surprised by the vote - it's been a long time coming and unfortunately previous/the current government have neglected very rough and deprived areas.

This is really going to shake up the EU big time though. It means that countries currently in the EU will likely have to pay more as the UK was the 4th biggest contributor with over 70 billion annually, as well as other countries seeking their own eu referendums.

Staying on topic, it's currently 20C and cloudy with a bit of wind.


The problem for the EU is that it will really give a voice to the people in other countries that want to hold referendums. But the UK will be fine, yes currently there is a ton of volatility because everyone is acting emotionally, but the superpower that is the UK is not going anywhere because of this vote. Things like trade agreements will be figured out, the EU isn't going to avoid doing business with the 5th largest economy in the world and the UK isn't going to avoid doing business with the largest joint economy in the EU.

The EU has some soul searching to do, this didn't come out of no where. More and more people are questioning why people in Brussels they didn't even vote for can affect what happens in their country.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
395. vis0

Quoting 375. win1gamegiantsplease:

Baseball sized hail was reported due north of Raleigh at the VA-NC border. Photo [Link]



I believe you're right, I remember Dr Masters saying that about Danny
As to the baseball sized hail affect area, in case some say but there were not sever tornadoes or derecho, again aGW is causing problems NOT with the amount of energy predicted to be used by nature (if anything they are under-predicted) but as to how nature doles out that energy. Let me make up a scale as reference.  If the prediction is for 1000 in amount of energy to be used to only create Tornadoes. Now one only observes that only one quarter of 1000 or 250 is used to create Tornadoes you'll see the remaining 750 go towards floods, straight winds, hail, lightning AND add another 200-400 is add due to aGW direct warmth flow..  In the end if measured this LOW created 1000 to 1300 in that imaginary range of energy, so if one sez oh noting happened due to only focusing on tornadic activities that would be  reality with blinders on.

i thank the 5 or 6 that warned of the Va. flood as i feel terrible in not posting as  i was going to post (was very tired helping friend move) and thought others would post much more.

Thank You to those that posted as to the VA. floods.

A good comparison is earlier on this blog byte pureet1948 asked (paraphrasing) what does a 980mb LOW do?
Though as to Ts and winds not much but DO NOT FORGET THE MOISTURE that was no TS not close to 980mb that flooded Texas so as daddyjames states and another member gave a good :days out" chart at 15 days watch for informative purposes only.  Once a LOW is 6-5 days out begin to pay attention as to ones LOCAL emergency needs. Under 5 days check up on National  prediction pages as NHC, NWS etc.

For those wondering if i have family in VA? (or China)
Yes my fellow human beings.
Quoting 364. NoobDave:


Yeah, it s definitely going to be shocking as it might be the first time in history the US president becomes someone who is under criminal investigation. The result is definitely going to be "shocking" either way.




Might be first time one gets whacked on election day lol. Hope not! DO NOT PERCEIVE THIS AS A THREAT. ITS ONLY A COMMENT