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At least 611 dead in Brazilian floods: Brazil's deadliest natural disaster in history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:05 PM GMT on January 14, 2011

Torrential rains inundated a heavily populated, steep-sloped area about 40 miles north of Rio de Janeiro on Tuesday and Wednesday, triggering flash floods and mudslides that have claimed at least 611 lives. Rainfall amounts of approximately 300 mm (12 inches) fell in just a few hours in the hardest-hit regions, Teresopolis and Nova Friburgo. Many more people are missing, and the death toll is expected to go much higher once rescuers reach remote villages that have been cut off from communications. The death toll makes the January 2011 floods Brazil's worst single-day natural disaster in its history. Brazil suffers hundreds of deaths each year due to flooding and mudslides, but the past 12 months have been particularly devastating. Flooding and landslides near Rio in April last year killed 246 people and did about $13 billion in damage, and at least 85 people perished last January during a similar event.


Figure 1. Flooding at Sao Jose do Vale do Vale do Rio Preto in Brazil, photographed on Thursday, January 13, 2011.

Role of near-record sea surface temperatures in Brazil's flood
This week's heavy rains occurred when a storm system crossing from west to east over southern Brazil drew in a moist southerly flow air off the Atlantic Ocean over southern Brazil at the surface. At higher levels, the storm drew in very moist air from the Amazon. Sea surface temperatures along the Brazilian coast are at near-record warm levels, which likely contributed to the heavy rains. Record rains are more likely when sea surface temperatures over the nearby moisture source regions are at record high levels. This occurs because increased amounts of water vapor evaporate into the atmosphere from a warm ocean compared to a cold one, due to the extra motion and energy of the hotter water molecules. According to an analysis I did of the UK Met Office Hadley Centre sea surface temperature data set, December 2010 sea surface temperatures in the 5x5 degree region of Earth's surface along the Brazilian shore nearest the disaster area, 20S to 25S and 45W to 40W, were the second warmest on record since 1900. Temperatures were 1.05°C (1.9°F) above average in this region last month. Only 2007, with a 1.21°C departure from average, had warmer December ocean temperatures.

Meteorologist Eugenio Hackbart, with the Brazilian private weather forecasting company Metsul, wrote in his blog today, "Heavy rains early this year coincide with the strong warming of the Atlantic along the coasts of southern and southeastern Brazil. With waters up to 2°C warmer than average in some places, there is a major release of moisture in the atmosphere essential for the formation of storms."


Figure 2. Newspaper front page story in Brazil after the March 18, 1967 flooding disaster, Brazil's previous deadliest single-day natural disaster. Image credit: Metsul.

Brazil's previous worst natural disaster: the March 18, 1967 flood
The previous worst natural disaster in Brazilian history occurred on March 18, 1967 when a tsunami-like flood of water, mud and rocks swept down a hillside in the coastal city of Caraguatatuba, near Sao Paulo, killing 300 - 500 people. According to meteorologist Eugenio Hackbart with the private Brazilian weather company Metsul, a rainguage at nearby Sao Sebastao measured 115 mm (4.5") on March 17, and 420 mm (17") on March 18. Hackbart puts the death toll from the 1967 disaster at 300 - 500, and refers to it as Brazil's deadliest single-day natural disaster in history. Heavy rains at other locations in Brazil that month caused additional mudslides and flooding deaths, and Wikipedia lists the total death toll for the Brazil March 1967 floods at 785.

I looked at the sea surface temperatures for March 1967 to see if unusually warm ocean waters may have contributed to that year's flooding disaster. Sea surface temperatures in the 5x5 degree region of Earth's surface nearest the disaster site (20S to 25S, 50W to 45W) were 0.24°C (0.4°F) above average, which is not significantly different from normal. So, we can get record rains and flooding when sea surface temperatures are near normal, and it is possible that this week's catastrophe was not significantly impacted by the exceptionally warm water near the coast. However, heating up the oceans loads the dice in favor of extreme rainfall events, and makes it more likely we will have an unprecedented flood. If we look at the departure of temperature from average for the moisture source regions of the globe's four most extreme flooding disasters over the past 12 months, we find that these ocean temperatures ranked 2nd or 3rd warmest, going back through 111 years of history:

January 2011 Brazilian floods: 2nd warmest SSTs on record, +1.05°C (20S to 25S, 45W to 40W)
November 2010 Colombia floods: 3rd warmest SSTs on record, +0.65°C (10N to 0N, 80W to 75W)
December 2010 Australian floods: 3rd warmest SSTs on record, +1.05°C (10S to 25S, 145E to 155E)
July 2010 Pakistani floods: 2nd warmest SSTs on record, +0.95°C (Bay of Bengal, 10N to 20N, 80E to 95E)

The size of the ocean source region appropriate to use for these calculations is uncertain, and these rankings will move up or down by averaging in a larger or smaller region of ocean. For example, if one includes an adjacent 5x5 degree area of ocean next to Brazil's coast that may have also contributed moisture to this week's floods, the SSTs rank as 7th warmest in the past 111 years, instead of 2nd warmest. It would take detailed modeling studies to determine just how much impact these near-record sea surface temperatures had on the heavy rains that occurred, and what portion of the ocean served as the moisture source region.


Figure 3. Predicted total precipitation amounts in South America for the 7-day period ending at 7am EST January 21, 2011, as forecast by the 06Z run of the GFS Ensemble model made January 14, 2011. Image credit: Florida State University.

More rain in the forecast
The coast of Brazil is embedded in a warm, moist tropical airmass that is expected to continue to bring heavy rains over he Rio de Janeiro area for at least the next week. Heavy rains in excess of five inches in the next seven days (Figure 3) are predicted by the GFS Ensemble computer model for the disaster region, just north of Rio de Janeiro. The additional heavy rains are likely to cause more life-threatening mudslides and floods.

2010 tied for warmest year in Earth's history
Earth's warmest year in history occurred in 2010, NASA reported this week. The globe's temperature beat the previous record set in 2005 by just .01°C, so we should consider 2010 and 2005 tied for the warmest year on reecord. Reliable global temperature records go back to 1880. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) also announced this week that 2010 was tied with 2005 as the warmest year on record, with temperatures during 2010 1.12°F (0.62°C) above the 20th century average. When the planet stops producing record weather catastrophes to blog about, I'll discuss the 2010 global temperature record in more detail.

Anniversary of the Haitian earthquake
Yesterday was the 1-year anniversary of the great Haitian earthquake of 2010. I want to thank all of you who offered donations to such great charities as the Lambi Fund of Haiti and Portlight.org. The people of Haiti need our continued financial support and prayers in the difficult rebuilding years to come.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters
Haiti Christmas
Haiti Christmas

Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting sirmaelstrom:


I'll grant that there was a period of rapid warming from the late 70s to the late 90s, but even according to the GISS it was matched by a similar period early in the 20th century when forcings due to GHGs were supposedly much less. It also seems that the last ten years or so have seen much less warming, at least when you take ENSO effects into account. I think the next twenty years will see something between a slight warming trend to possibly even a cooling trend, which will allow us to better quantify the natural contribution to the temperature variation. It seems we are heading into a climate cycle different than that of the late 70s-late 90s period as evidenced by changes in the PDO pattern.

I keep hearing this conjecture, but there appears to be one major problem with it: the decade from 2000-2010 was the warmest on record--warmer than the 90s, which were themselves warmer than the 80s, which were warmer than the 70s...

Click for larger image:
See No Science. Speak No Science. Hear No Science.

Data from here

Anyway, here's what I believe will happen over the next 20 years:

--2011 won't be as warm as either 2010 or 2005, so many contrarians will claim that the hoped-for cooling has started--and they'll say that even though this year will likely rank in the top five or ten since records were kept.

--The next El Nino will produce yet another new record warm year, at which time contrarians will claim that it's only warm because of that El Nino.

--Extreme weather events will occur with increasing frequency and severity: more "biblical" flooding in places, more deep droughts in others, unprecedented heat waves, record snowfalls, oddball hurricane and tornado behavior. Each of these will be explained by contrarians as simply part of a natural cycle.

--Arctic sea ice will dwindle to almost nothing in certain summers, and contrarians will point out that there was a period in the 1920s with little ice north of Norway.

--Some glaciers will grow due to increased snowfall, but the majority will continue to disappear as they have been. Contrarians will claim that glaciers have always come and gone, so their disappearance is proof of nothing.

--Northern permafrost will continue to melt, contributing even more GhGs to the atmosphere in a particularly potent feedback loop. Contrarians will claim that in order for it to be frozen, it must have been liquid at one point, so it's just part of a natural cycle.

--Each of the next 20 years that sets a record for heat, or at least makes into the top ten, will be used as 'proof' by contrarians that a long-term cooling trend is just about to start.

--The entire 20 years will have passed with absolutely nothing substantive being done. Oil and coal companies will continue to pillage the environment unimpeded by regulation or logic, all the while paying contrarian "scientists" to put out the word that everything is just okay--and, worst of all, there'll be many contrarians proclaiming that we should maybe wait another 20 years to see how things pan out...

:-\
While temperature proxies certainly can give an idea of past warming and cooling, I think it is misleading to suggest they can be used to determine absolute temperatures for a any point in the past. Just looking at a graph such as the one below seems to indicate as much, as least to me.



Added: Hmmmm...images not working. Click on link below for image.

Link
I dont recall ever arguing absolute temperature for any day in the past or seeing it argued here.

I argued very general global climate conditions and the best known, most completely and reasonably argued causes for them.
№ 501

Significant warming is evident from the late 70s to the late 90s. Since the 90s include many years from 1990-1995 it is of course cooler than the last decade.

As can be seen below:


Last two El Niño episodes led to similar temperature peaks (1998 & 2010), last two La Niña episodes similar temperature troughs (2001 & 2009).

This image seems to work, I think the image linker has a problem with PNG files, I guess.
Quoting JFLORIDA:
I dont recall ever arguing absolute temperature for any day in the past or seeing it argued here.

I argued very general global climate conditions and the best known, most completely and reasonably argued causes for them.


Appending thermometer readings to the end of proxy records gives the impression that the proxy readings are being used to suggest absolute temperatures. There are significant uncertainties with trying to associate a specific proxy value with a specific temperature value.

Added: "I'm not accusing you specifically of arguing anything. I am merely suggesting that the proxy record is misused when trying to compare it to thermometer readings, especially in terms of variation. You may think it is valid to do so. If so, surely many agree with you; I do not."
Quoting sirmaelstrom:
%u2116 501

Significant warming is evident from the late 70s to the late 90s. Since the 90s include many years from 1990-1995 it is of course cooler than the last decade.

As can be seen below:


Last two El Nio episodes led to similar temperature peaks (1998 & 2010), last two La Nia episodes similar temperature troughs (2001 & 2009).

This image seems to work, I think the image linker has a problem with PNG files, I guess.

Well we're still warmer than we were 50 years ago. And your graph shows no sign of that reversing.

edit-in fact it still shows warming, just a more gradual warming
Quoting sirmaelstrom:
%u2116 501

Significant warming is evident from the late 70s to the late 90s. Since the 90s include many years from 1990-1995 it is of course cooler than the last decade.

As can be seen below:


Last two El Ni%uFFFDo episodes led to similar temperature peaks (1998 & 2010), last two La Ni%uFFFDa episodes similar temperature troughs (2001 & 2009).

This image seems to work, I think the image linker has a problem with PNG files, I guess.

It's clear from that image that even without a trendline, temps continue to move upward by the decade: 2010s warmer than the 90s, 90s warmer than the 80s, 80s warmer than the 70s. In fact, prior to 1998, the red line is almost entirely below the 0.0 baseline, and since then it's almost entirely above it.

It pays to remember, of course, that climate is a long-term thing; year-to-year variations are not nearly so important as decade-to-decade ones--and those point to definite warming.
Quoting TomTaylor:

Well we're still warmer than we were 50 years ago. And your graph shows no sign of that reversing.

edit-in fact it still shows warming, just a more gradual warming


I agree with that.
Quoting Neapolitan:

It's clear form that image that even without a trendline, temps continue to move upward by the decade: 2010s warmer than the 90s, 90s warmer than the 80s, 80s warmer than the 70s. It pays to remember that climate is a long-term thing; year-to-year variations are not nearly so important as decade-to-decade ones--and those point to definite warming.


Ten years may very well be too short of a time period to draw any significant conclusions, but past correlation between the PDO and temperature lead me to believe that at least the rapid warming of the 70s-90s has at least temporarily ended. I am very curious to see what the next decade brings.

The thing is, the PDO's correlation with temperature seems to be discounted by many. Consequently, if current models are assuming that recent warming was entirely driven by GHGs and associated feedbacks and it turns out that conditions related to the PDO have contributed, the models' projections for the future will be more dependent on GHGs increases than warranted and yield exaggerated results. Currently, my opinion is that this is likely the case. Additionally, I am not convinced that all positive and negative feedbacks are known to a well enough degree to allow accurate modelling.

Added: I've got to take a break for now. My girlfriend tells me that sitting in front of the computer too long will kill me; LOL, she saw some study that suggested that. Anyway, going out to watch some football and imbibe in some spirits. Will check back later.
Quoting sirmaelstrom:


Appending thermometer readings to the end of proxy records gives the impression that the proxy readings are being used to suggest absolute temperatures. There are significant uncertainties with trying to associate a specific proxy value with a specific temperature value.

Added: "I'm not accusing you specifically of arguing anything. I am merely suggesting that the proxy record is misused when trying to compare it to thermometer readings, especially in terms of variation. You may think it is valid to do so. If so, surely many agree with you; I do not."


I dont use proxy measurements in that manner argumentatively. They dont need to be if they are. Without specific examples I cannot comment.

The climate indicators would stand regardless so I dont understand your argument either.
Quoting sirmaelstrom:


Certainly, variations in climate would acerbate any other challenges they were facing at the time, but in general it is usually regional cooling that presents the greatest challenges to already vulnerable societies. I seem to recall there was also an extreme event that some link to a large volcanic eruption in the mid-6th century that is thought to have contributed, although by that time the climate had already likely been cooling for a while and the Roman Empire had been in decline for quite some time.
Interesting discussion. It would be interesting to see correlations between climate change and changes in the Chinese dynasties. I do know there is supposed to be at least some correlation between changes in riverine flooding and riverbed path and the overthrow of particular dynasties, but about climate more generally, I'm not so sure.

Plus there is some theorizing that the Mayan civilization declined because of climate shiftss that influenced rain / drought patterns....
Afternoon all, btw. :o)
Quoting JFLORIDA:


I dont use proxy measurements in that manner argumentatively. They dont need to be if they are. Without specific examples I cannot comment.


OK...last comment for now. I'm not accusing you of anything. I'm referring to people that produce and use the graphs of thermometer readings appended to temperature proxies. I can't necessarily recall if you've done that, so I'm not referring to you specifically.

Really out for now; have a good afternoon all.
Quoting sirmaelstrom:


Ten years may very well be too short of a time period to draw any significant conclusions, but past correlation between the PDO and temperature lead me to believe that at least the rapid warming of the 70s-90s has at least temporarily ended. I am very curious to see what the next decade brings.

The thing is, the PDO's correlation with temperature seems to be discounted by many. Consequently, if current models are assuming that recent warming was entirely driven by GHGs and associated feedbacks and it turns out that conditions related to the PDO have contributed, the models' projections for the future will be more dependent on GHGs increases than warranted and yield exaggerated results. Currently, my opinion is that this is likely the case. Additionally, I am not convinced that all positive and negative feedbacks are known to a well enough degree to allow accurate modelling.

I suppose we'll have to just agree to disagree, then; it appears you look at the graphs in 501 and 504 and see a leveling out, while I look at those very same graphs and see stair-step warming at the annual level that's leading to an overall gradual but increasing warming. And whatever's driving that warming--CO2, or ENSO, or PDO, or solar activity, or even some mechanism we've never considered--almost doesn't matter at this point; I see no plateau. I see only warming.

Enjoy your afternoon... ;-)
513

Yes but as the counter argument is made that man made warming didn't occur because of inaccuracy in temperature readings averaged time series are the only available argument.

I really cant believe you are arguing that giving people what they ask for in the reasonable form they are asking is a error on the part of the presenters.

Over the years those arguing against AGW and current science have drug everyone thorough basically a hell of personal assaults and argumentative gymnastics when in actuality there were no reasonable arguments against the consensus.

That is what I take offense with.

Especially when I see it continued I see no evidence of growth or ability and a underhanded attempt to re introduce unreasonable argument.

That is also why I see forced unreasonable civility as insincere and a argumentative ploy.
Hey it is a step up from this. Or is it if the effect is the same?

"There is no scientific basis for any of it. None whatsoever. The whole thing has been made up by a tiny handful of malevolent, radicalised scientists highly placed in various Western meteorological organisations. If you want to know who they are, read online the Climategate emails that they exchanged with one another over the past ten years. You will be struck - as I was - by just how nasty these fraudsters are."

http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=9906&page=3
Quoting Seawall:
Stop with the arguing. Just stop. Spend more time telling the people around you physically that you care for them. I lost a dear friend earlier this week - a member of law enforcement that had flew to Florida along with his wife to take a fly and drive vacation; driving from Ft. Lauderdale to the keys and back. He never got a chance. He told his wife he was not feeling well, but was taking the luggage carrier back downstairs. The desk clerk reported when the elevator opened, he took a couple of steps, then fell face first. His wife received a call that her husband was ill downstairs; he was already dead. These are my best friends, and she had to spend the night alone in a hospital with her dead husband while they were prepping him for an autopsy. Her son couldn't get from Louisiana to Florida quick enough. I went to his wake last night, and it was a sad time.
So, instead of all the continual arguing, PLEASE look around you. You never know. This is just cyberspace, and well, just don't take for granted that the ones you love will be with you the next day.
I'm very sorry to hear that about your friend! You do make a valid point! Tomorrow is promised to noone!
why not this report him or risk geting banned


dos this need too keep going evere day of the week


am going too start reporting
if this keeps going that is
520. BtnTx
Quoting Tazmanian:
if this keeps going that is
YAWN!
Quoting BtnTx:
YAWN!



Yawn LOL
dont i love being top bloger
for get about the GW fight whats talk about tazs
524. BtnTx
Quoting Tazmanian:
dont i love being top bloger
Taz - You Have It!
Yeahhh you people do know that their are other weather events happening out there to disscus besides global warming/climate change.

You know what taz it will get worse unless you resolve it or lay down a reasonable foundation for argument.

I really don't come here to hear of personal hardship, sympathy current level of interest, and/or ESPECIALLY personal opinion of a scientific topic . To me WHEN THEY ARE LINKED TO A TOPIC BEING DISCUSSED they are being used as ploys to disrupt relevant argument and facilitate unreasonable discussion.

Also it weird as adults you cant follow and reasonably post on more than one issue at a time.
Hi Taz, I sure will be glad to have a nice little tropical storm to watch, won't you?
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yeahhh you people do know that their are other weather events happening out there to disscus besides global warming/climate change.


Do you know you actually can discus other issues. Did anyone discussing climate EVER complain about a current weather topic being discussed?
There is a storm approaching Florida, flooding in south America and Australia, another upcoming large snow event likely and all the only thing you can think of is posting videos, personal narrative and complaining about those discussing climate?

Are you all kidding?
Quoting Tazmanian:
for get about the GW fight whats talk about tazs
I don't think the debate will cease until hurricane season begins again.
Quoting JFLORIDA:
There is a storm approaching Florida, flooding in south America and Australia, another upcoming large snow event likely and all the only thing you can think of is posting videos, personal narrative and complaining about those discussing climate?

Are you all kidding?
On the models I don't see a very large snow event coming to to the northeast.Unless your talking about the one happening on MLK day then no.That one is suppose to be a wintery mess for many.
Actually as hurricanes are longer weather events their association with climatic issues is going to become more entwined with its study as knowledge advances(for some of us) guaranteed.
Quoting washingtonian115:
On the models I don't see a very large snow event coming to to the northeast.Unless your talking about the one happening on MLK day then no.That one is suppose to be a wintery mess for many.


The GFS was developing a interesting surface feature over Texas and moving across central Florida.
Quoting JFLORIDA:
Actually as hurricanes are longer weather events their association with climatic issues is going to become more entwined with its study as knowledge advances(for some of us) guaranteed.


Oh, I have no doubt about that.
Actually on the nam now there are two. One coming from the southern GOM.

This illustrates the situation better:

Looks like the panhandle will get some more needed rain.
Quoting JFLORIDA:

You know what taz it will get worse unless you resolve it or lay down a reasonable foundation for argument.

I really don't come here to hear of personal hardship, sympathy current level of interest, and/or ESPECIALLY personal opinion of a scientific topic . To me WHEN THEY ARE LINKED TO A TOPIC BEING DISCUSSED they are being used as ploys to disrupt relevant argument and facilitate unreasonable discussion.

Also it weird as adults you cant follow and reasonably post on more than one issue at a time.


Think there are a lot of us "weird" people here. And I'm very much an adult.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:
Hi Taz, I sure will be glad to have a nice little tropical storm to watch, won't you?



yes it wpuld be
but i think the wind shear is this a little too high at this time
Quoting Tazmanian:
but i think the wind shear is this a little too high at this time


Yes, I do to. I'll bet you're getting all your numbers together...if I remember, you did really well with your calls last season.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Think there are a lot of us "weird" people here. And I'm very much an adult.

The Aesthetic now in popular art revolves around a premise that gritty  extreme openness and humility visually expresses a desire for truth or at least knowing it.

Because of legitimate past movements  based in subversion and exposing conspiracy,  consistency and constructive pattern, efficient utility as well as complexity (unless is based in quirky  nuanced opinion) is frowned upon in artistic expression. 

Unfortunately tactics are sometimes mistaken for the intended or  desired outcome.

On a more fundamental level that is what needs to change.
I wonder if that wave propagating from the north pole is dumping a lot of precipitation. Looks like its going to be moving over a large area of the Hudson bay's sea ice. I'm guessing the excessive moisture that was transferred northward ended up melting a lot of the surface ice; which caused an expanding layer of cooling air on the surface. The phase difference between ice and water can store or release large amounts of heat (storing in this case).
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:
That'll probally be rain for my area.Bleh!.You see all that could've been snow,but insted it's probally going to be a stupid chilly rain event.
This forum, like most other great ones, is what the members make of it. At times the talk is of tropical storms. At other times, it's of the climate. At still other times, severe weather somewhere in the world. Or someone's birthday. Or a departed member. Or philosophy. Or lame attempts at humor. Or endless movie quotes. Or football discussions. Or seeing who can post the most 80s/90s music videos. Or whatever. The thing is, this forum doesn't exist as passive entertainment; if you don't like the mainstream of the current discussion, you're completely free to add your own $.02 about anything within bounds that tickles your fancy. But don't be upset if the previous dialog continues to be woven around and through the topic you started; after all, you wouldn't IRL wade into the middle of a ten-way conversation and insist that everyone change the topic because it wasn't to your liking, would you?
Vince should slowly continue to weaken as it moves over water with less & less heat content.
ZELIA
Your are so right Nea, and I feel perfectly free to weave right in and right out, as most others here do...I hope.

Quoting Neapolitan:
This forum, like most other great ones, is what the members make of it. At times the talk is of tropical storms. At other times, it's of the climate. At still other times, severe weather somewhere in the world. Or someone's birthday. Or a departed member. Or philosophy. Or lame attempts at humor. Or endless movie quotes. Or football discussions. Or seeing who can post the most 80s/90s music videos. Or whatever. The thing is, this forum doesn't exist as passive entertainment; if you don't like the mainstream of the current discussion, you're completely free to add your own $.02 about anything within bounds that tickles your fancy. But don't be upset if the previous dialog continues to be woven around and through the topic you started; after all, you wouldn't IRL wade into the middle of a ten-way conversation and insist that everyone change the topic because it wasn't to your liking, would you?
Nicely done.
ESPI has come up quite a bit to -0.96. Another sign that the current La Nina may begin to fade. Region 1,2 warmed to temps not seen since last June, week before last. May not have warmed all too much this last week. New numbers tomorrow.
CMC 72



554. DEKRE
Quoting Neapolitan:
This forum, like most other great ones, is ...


Unfortunately you are forgetting the trolls
Quoting DEKRE:


Unfortunately you are forgetting the trolls

Not forgetting them; just ignoring them. ;-)
Quoting Neapolitan:
This forum, like most other great ones, is what the members make of it. At times the talk is of tropical storms. At other times, it's of the climate. At still other times, severe weather somewhere in the world. Or someone's birthday. Or a departed member. Or philosophy. Or lame attempts at humor. Or endless movie quotes. Or football discussions. Or seeing who can post the most 80s/90s music videos. Or whatever. The thing is, this forum doesn't exist as passive entertainment; if you don't like the mainstream of the current discussion, you're completely free to add your own $.02 about anything within bounds that tickles your fancy. But don't be upset if the previous dialog continues to be woven around and through the topic you started; after all, you wouldn't IRL wade into the middle of a ten-way conversation and insist that everyone change the topic because it wasn't to your liking, would you?


Nice. To sum up from two great movie quotes, I believe the point you are trying to make is either, "You can't handle the truth", or "What we have here is a failure to communicate". I hope you don't consider this a lame attempt at humor, that would hurt my feelings, and we are trying to be civil.
Grothar, now you've done it.



Edit: this is an intense scene.
Quoting bappit:
Grothar, now you've done it.



The only time I insert a movie quote or rarely, if ever post music, it is to divert the blog from getting ugly. I never to do to disrupt a legitimate dialogue. (great movie, though)
Quoting Grothar:


The only time I insert a movie quote or rarely, if ever post music, it is to divert the blog from getting ugly. I never to do to disrupt a legitimate dialogue. (great movie, though)


Now that's what I'm talking about. Same here.
Quoting JFLORIDA:

You know what taz it will get worse unless you resolve it or lay down a reasonable foundation for argument.

I really don't come here to hear of personal hardship, sympathy current level of interest, and/or ESPECIALLY personal opinion of a scientific topic . To me WHEN THEY ARE LINKED TO A TOPIC BEING DISCUSSED they are being used as ploys to disrupt relevant argument and facilitate unreasonable discussion.

Also it weird as adults you cant follow and reasonably post on more than one issue at a time.

My post previous to this illustrates the reality that not even saturation bombing with reasonable argument will resolve the situation. It all becomes tiresome.

Edit: I should have said "The quote in my previous post ..." LOL
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Now that's what I'm talking about. Same here.


You're very civil. (LOL)
Quoting JFLORIDA:
CMC 72





Are there any indications of another rush of cold air into the South or are there indications that we got the last of the real cold weather for winter time? What does the map you post indicate?
Quoting bappit:

My post previous to this illustrates the reality that not even saturation bombing with reasonable argument will resolve the situation. It all becomes tiresome.

Edit: I should have said "The quote in my previous post ..." LOL


I hope that is not a "lame attempt at humor" LOL
564

It might rain here next week.
Quoting Grecojdw:


Are there any indications of another rush of cold air into the South or are there indications that we got the last of the real cold weather for winter time? What does the map you post indicate?
Quoting Grothar:


I hope that is not a "lame attempt at humor" LOL

No.
If the general public has no access to the raw data of temperature (among other things) how are we to verify what these climate manipulators are telling us. CRU says the raw data no longer exists and it seems as if the same thing is happening elsewhere.

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/SC1002/S00004.htm
Quoting Grothar:


The only time I insert a movie quote or rarely, if ever post music, it is to divert the blog from getting ugly. I never to do to disrupt a legitimate dialogue. (great movie, though)

Oh, I know. I wasn't complaining about the quotes or the videos; I was just saying that all kinds of stuff becomes subject for discussion here, so people just need to go with it, talk about what they want, or ignore it. What they shouldn't is simply complain repeatedly that people aren't talking about what they want to talk about. Not because they don't have a right to simply complain--they do--but because they're probably just wasting their time in doing so.

569 Knock yourself out:

Climate data (raw)

Climate data (processed)

Paleo-data

Paleo Reconstructions (including code)

Large-scale model (Reanalysis) output
These are weather models which have the real world observations
assimilated into the solution to provide a ‘best guess’ of the evolution
of weather over time (although pre-satellite era estimates (before
1979) are less accurate).

Large-scale model (GCM) output
These is output from the large scale global models used to assess
climate change in the past, and make projections for the future. Some of
this output is also available via the Data Visualisation tools linked
below.

Model codes (GCMs)
Downloadable codes for some of the GCMs.

Model codes (other)
This category include links to analysis tools, simpler models or models focussed on more specific issues.

Data Visualisation and Analysis
These sites include some of the above data (as well as other sources) in an easier to handle form.

Master Repositories of Climate Data
Much bigger indexes of data sources:

but the world glacier monitoring service has moved so here is the new link:


The general public has no access to raw data.

That was completely fabricated. Why would someone say somethign like that that is so untrue? Thats what I am wondering.
Quoting Cochise111:
If the general public has no access to the raw data of temperature (among other things) how are we to verify what these climate manipulators are telling us. CRU says the raw data no longer exists and it seems as if the same thing is happening elsewhere.

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/SC1002/S00004.htm

You're not to verify. In fact, I wouldn't believe anything any scientist who doesn't work for Texaco says. If I were you, I'd stay locked huddled in my own cocoon, content in the certainty that pumping billions of tons of pollution into the air and water each year will have absolutely no effect on the environment, and that the CEO of ExxonMobil cares more for my well-being than he does for the value of his stock options. I'd keep my TV tuned to one particular cable news channel, get all my "science" knowledge from AlGoreIsABigFatLiar.com or WattsUpWithThat.com, and keep trying to convince myself that all the myriad signs of warming are just parts of a natural cycle that will disappear any day now, and that the last 100 years of warming are going to mysteriously jettison all that momentum overnight and shift into a long period of temperature reversal, plunging us back into the ice age Time Magazine wrote about 40 years ago (because science doesn't change over four decades).

Yes, that's exactly what I'd do...
CRU says the raw data no longer exists and it seems as if the same thing is happening elsewhere.


Not only is that incorrect it is so on several levels.


No one, it seems, cares to read what we put up on the CRU web page. These people just make up motives for what we might or might not have done.

Almost all the data we have in the CRU archive is exactly the same as in the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) archive used by the NOAA National Climatic Data Center [see here and here].

The original raw data are not lost. I could reconstruct what we had from U.S. Department of Energy reports we published in the mid-1980s. I would start with the GHCN data. I know that the effort would be a complete waste of time, though. I may get around to it some time. The documentation of what weve done is all in the literature.



His statements indicated that they had edited out available sources of data as better ones became available. Unethical people in a certain community decide they would skew it more to their liking.

Overall 0he results matched the results of other climate labs. Including US results.
i thought 6 months might ,,,just might,, turn this blog into what it was 2 years ago.. i was wrong,, no need to say any thing rude,, it has been said over and over , and, i miss storm w
Quoting pinehurstnc:
i thought 6 months might ,,,just might,, turn this blog into what it was 2 years ago.. i was wrong,, no need to say any thing rude,, it has been said over and over , and, i miss storm w


Stick around...gonna get better...:)
Also, I'd ignore the following chart and others like it; they are evidence of nothing.

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.
Quoting pinehurstnc:
i thought 6 months might ,,,just might,, turn this blog into what it was 2 years ago.. i was wrong,, no need to say any thing rude,, it has been said over and over , and, i miss storm w


You know what, so do I but his climate commentary was un sourced opinion. Hes weather and tropical outlooks were nice though.
I think the discussion in the summer is even more unreasonable. Very little sourced and lots of bickering about wobbles basically.

No current research other than what Dr M brings and very little cohesive understanding of what the different graphical representations posted and reposted for the same phenomena represent.

But still you don't see me going in there and saying something derogatory to people making reasonable posts under any circumstances.

Many of you are conditioned and dont even know it.
Quoting JFLORIDA:
I think the discussion in the summer is even more unreasonable. Very little sourced and lots of bickering about wobbles basically.

Boy, do you have that right. Between the nowcasters, the doomcasters, the fearcasters, the upcasters, the herecasters, the downcasters, and all the rest, it's amazing how much good tropical weather science gets discussed.
Quoting JFLORIDA:
I think the discussion in the summer is even more unreasonable. Very little sourced and lots of bickering about wobbles basically.


Come on JFL...some of us love those wobbles...LOL
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Come on JFL...some of us love those wobbles...LOL


I dont know, I really enjoy the winter here. Perhaps it just listening to myself a lot of the time.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Boy, do you have that right. Between the nowcasters, the doomcasters, the fearcasters, the upcasters, the herecasters, the downcasters, and all the rest, it's amazing how much good tropical weather science gets discussed.


There is some good referenced and reasonable stuff mind you. - I trudge though to find it occasionally.
Quoting pinehurstnc:
i thought 6 months might ,,,just might,, turn this blog into what it was 2 years ago.. i was wrong,, no need to say any thing rude,, it has been said over and over , and, i miss storm w


He may yet be among us.

311. twincomanche 10:46 PM EST on January 14, 2011

Off to bed however the question remains, I asked if this was the X files, then Twilight Zone? I guess what I should have asked if this is the three stooges? I really like discussions about the weather, global warming a little less, insults not at all. You people have chased off a lot of good weather people. Stop it.

Been here a long time but banned for saying something bad about admin so I am now a newbie.
Quoting JFLORIDA:


I dont know I really enjoy the winter here.


Well, cant say I like the heat either....but I will say.....I have a lot of respect for the sincere passion you and Nea and a few others have for your beliefs. I just worry about your blood pressure sometimes....
..."I Triple Dog Dare ya.."


Boy rescued after getting tongue stuck on icy pole

by Associated Press

wwltv.com

Posted on January 12, 2011 at 10:18 AM

WOODWARD, Okla. %u2013 (AP) In a scene straight from the movie "A Christmas Story," an 8-year-old Oklahoma boy got his tongue stuck to a metal pole after he licked it on a dare.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Well, cant say I like the heat either....but I will say.....I have a lot of respect for the sincere passion you and Nea and a few others have for your beliefs. I just worry about your blood pressure sometimes....


So do I. I need to be here less I think. I get in the habit of checking in too much when I have computer work to do and since I am working on a article and a talk proposal and the talk itself I am doing a lot now.

Concepts and issues seem to leak both ways also.
Quoting JFLORIDA:


So do I. I need to be here less I think. I get in the habit of checking in too much when I have computer work to do and since I am working on a article and a talk proposal and the talk itself I am doing a lot now.

Concepts and issues seem to leak both ways also.


Oh No ! Cant do that, just joke around sometimes...it does help, laughter that is..I know it's therapy for me. Dont let that A personality and high IQ get in your way of fun. :)
Quoting pinehurstnc:
i thought 6 months might ,,,just might,, turn this blog into what it was 2 years ago.. i was wrong,, no need to say any thing rude,, it has been said over and over , and, i miss storm w


The blog was much nicer two years ago. Many of the regulars have left. I don't blog as much as I once did. It seems that every comment or observation turns into a challenge. There were many helpful people who answered questions about tropical weather and weather questions in general without a mass attack. Now if you simply say, It was cold here today, you can be sure someone will answer with, "Well, it wasn't that cold". I would be willing to forgo civility just for a little politeness.
Quoting Patrap:
..."I Triple Dog Dare ya.."


Boy rescued after getting tongue stuck on icy pole

by Associated Press

wwltv.com

Posted on January 12, 2011 at 10:18 AM

WOODWARD, Okla. %u2013 (AP) In a scene straight from the movie "A Christmas Story," an 8-year-old Oklahoma boy got his tongue stuck to a metal pole after he licked it on a dare.


Can you imagine all the tongue material that would be on a frozen flagpole in here? Especially if they banned people for licking it?
Quoting Skyepony:
ESPI has come up quite a bit to -0.96. Another sign that the current La Nina may begin to fade. Region 1,2 warmed to temps not seen since last June, week before last. May not have warmed all too much this last week. New numbers tomorrow.


The isotherm depth, an indicator of heat content, also continues to steadily increase in the western Pacific:



On the other hand, the SOI is still as high as ever:



The strongest La Niña on record?

The SOI values confirm that we are in the middle of either the strongest La Niña event on record, or the second strongest. The SOI values for October 2010 and December 2010 were each the largest positive values on record for those months, as was the three-month average October-December 2010. If we take a longer perspective (July-December) then 1917 was stronger than 2010, but 2010 was still the second strongest in the historical record. Using either the October-December or the longer July-December periods, the strong La Niña events on 1973 and 1975 were both ranked as weaker than the 2010 event.

(also an interesting discussion about whether SSTs are a reliable measure of ENSO, especially when comparing events from decades ago, given global warming)
Quoting Grothar:


The blog was much nicer two years ago. Many of the regulars have left. I don't blog as much as I once did. It seems that every comment or observation turns into a challenge. There were many helpful people who answered questions about tropical weather and weather questions in general without a mass attack. Now if you simply say, It was cold here today, you can be sure someone will answer with, "Well, it wasn't that cold". I would be willing to forgo civility just for a little politeness.
This is a good post....And very true....:)
Quoting hydrus:
This is a good post.


Either that or stick my tongue to a frozen flagpole. How you doing, hydrus? Weather finally getting nice here again.
Quoting Grothar:


The blog was much nicer two years ago. Many of the regulars have left. I don't blog as much as I once did. It seems that every comment or observation turns into a challenge. There were many helpful people who answered questions about tropical weather and weather questions in general without a mass attack. Now if you simply say, It was cold here today, you can be sure someone will answer with, "Well, it wasn't that cold". I would be willing to forgo civility just for a little politeness.


Ya know Grothar, I really think that a lot of the people that use to blog are still lurking...or at least I sure hope so...maybe they will come back on. Some of this "high Scale" talk scares some folks off.....I know a lot of it is over my head...but I'm too old to be intimidated and I'm always wanting to learn something new, so I just weave in and out. "Come on back ya'll, ya hear"
596. xcool



ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE
Quoting Grothar:


The blog was much nicer two years ago. Many of the regulars have left. I don't blog as much as I once did. It seems that every comment or observation turns into a challenge. There were many helpful people who answered questions about tropical weather and weather questions in general without a mass attack. Now if you simply say, It was cold here today, you can be sure someone will answer with, "Well, it wasn't that cold". I would be willing to forgo civility just for a little politeness.
I 2nd your request for civility. Unfortunately I don't remember any good old days. Yes the names change, but it is the nature of the blog that when we are anonymous we are much ruder. I find it highly offensive how many use the T word (Troll) freely yet don't realize that it is in the same league as the N word. They themselves are trolls for using that word, yet the Blog Elders rarely call them out for this highly offensive language.
WOW Xcool....this looks like some new stuff ! I like these visuals !! Thank you...
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Ya know Grothar, I really think that a lot of the people that use to blog are still lurking...or at least I sure hope so...maybe they will come back on. Some of this "high Scale" talk scares some folks off.....I know a lot of it is over my head...but I'm too old to be intimidated and I'm always wanting to learn something new, so I just weave in and out. "Come on back ya'll, ya hear"


I think they do, too. I still get WU mail from some of the former bloggers. They just don't want to bother with all the nonsense. I am just too old to fight. Keep calling out to them EYES, maybe they will answer your call.
Quoting Grothar:


I think they do, too. I still get WU mail from some of the former bloggers. They just don't want to bother with all the nonsense. I am just too old to fight. Keep calling out to them EYES, maybe they will answer your call.


Now wait a minute here...I think I decided I'm older than you , so therefore, you cannot be too old to fight !! Just get your second wind and a cup of hot chocolate.:}
Quoting KrippleCreekFerry:
I 2nd your request for civility. Unfortunately I don't remember any good old days. Yes the names change, but it is the nature of the blog that when we are anonymous we are much ruder. I find it highly offensive how many use the T word (Troll) freely yet don't realize that it is in the same league as the N word. They themselves are trolls for using that word, yet the Blog Elders rarely call them out for this highly offensive language.


I don't like that either. However, I can never recall you being rude, regardless of the anonymity. That is still not excusable, but guess understandable for other's behavior.
Quoting Grothar:


The blog was much nicer two years ago. Many of the regulars have left. I don't blog as much as I once did. It seems that every comment or observation turns into a challenge. There were many helpful people who answered questions about tropical weather and weather questions in general without a mass attack. Now if you simply say, It was cold here today, you can be sure someone will answer with, "Well, it wasn't that cold". I would be willing to forgo civility just for a little politeness.


I myself stopped coming to this blog for a while; I hadn't posted or even read any of the comments for like two years when I came back. Of course, I left because of all of the sheer nonsense that was going on (in fact, it got so bad that people were getting bans over it, I stopped coming shortly after I was banned (from this blog), even if for only 24 hours).

On the other hand, I now wonder why I did come back (one reason though was the way certain trolls got one of my friends permabanned, not that it isn't easy to circumvent it but it destroys your standing as one of the long-term regulars, and of course incites harassment)...
I agree. But it is also people watching attacks happen that they knew were wrong, but doing nothing about it as long as it didn't happen to them.

Quoting Grothar:


The blog was much nicer two years ago. Many of the regulars have left. I don't blog as much as I once did. It seems that every comment or observation turns into a challenge. There were many helpful people who answered questions about tropical weather and weather questions in general without a mass attack. Now if you simply say, It was cold here today, you can be sure someone will answer with, "Well, it wasn't that cold". I would be willing to forgo civility just for a little politeness.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Now wait a minute here...I think I decided I'm older than you , so therefore, you cannot be too old to fight !! Just get your second wind and a cup of hot chocolate.:}


Hey, we can settle this age thing right now. What were you doing when the 2nd Peloponnesian War broke out. Gotcha!
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, we can settle this age thing right now. What were you doing when the 2nd Peloponnesian War broke out. Gotcha!


Not fair..."over my head" statement!
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, we can settle this age thing right now. What were you doing when the 2nd Peloponnesian War broke out. Gotcha!


I was writing about the First Peloponnesian War. :))

Howdy Groth, et al! :))
Quoting swampliliy:


I was writing about the First Peloponnesian War. :))

Howdy Groth, et al! :))


Yo, Swamp! Old time lurker just popped his head. How are the waters by you? Been a long time.
Quoting MichaelSTL:


I myself stopped coming to this blog for a while; I hadn't posted or even read any of the comments for like two years when I came back. Of course, I left because of all of the sheer nonsense that was going on (in fact, it got so bad that people were getting bans over it, I stopped coming shortly after I was banned (from this blog), even if for only 24 hours).

On the other hand, I now wonder why I did come back (one reason though was the way certain trolls got one of my friends permabanned, not that it isn't easy to circumvent it but it destroys your standing as one of the long-term regulars, and of course incites harassment)...
True a permaban "destroys your standing as one of the long-term regulars" but is there really a pecking order. Does one want to be on top of the order and get pecked at like SW was. Is there even an in crowd here and does anybody even care?
Quoting Grothar:


Yo, Swamp! Old time lurker just popped his head. How are the waters by you? Been a long time.


Been good here- hope you as well? Sorry, just had to pop in with another lame attempt at humor. The other "lamecasters" didn't jump on that one, so I couldn't resist. :))
Quoting LoveStormsatNight:
I agree. But it is also people watching attacks happen that they knew were wrong, but doing nothing about it as long as it didn't happen to them.



In Anthropology, we call that "the survival technique"; not exactly a virtue, but part of human nature. But what you said hold a lot of merit. There are many people on here with whom I disagree, but have often times come to their defense in an unwarranted attack. However, I am probably as guilty of not coming to someone's defense as most others.
Quoting LoveStormsatNight:
I agree. But it is also people watching attacks happen that they knew were wrong, but doing nothing about it as long as it didn't happen to them.



I'd rather look at all the stuff being missed while others are all engrossed in attacks..

Zelia has an eye. Click to watch swirling loop.. (this tends to sooth most here)


Michael~ Yeah I've noticed the SOI. Climo leans toward a warming for what ever that is worth. Seems the last 2 weeks (espi & reg 1.2) has weighed the for & against towards an enso warming.
."Mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm....


...a Cylcone"
Quoting JFLORIDA:
but the world glacier monitoring service has moved so here is the new link:




Where's the CRU data, which formed the basis for the IPCC report?
The warming that I refer to in the article I posted (whether SSTs are a reliable long-term measure of ENSO) is very evident in the Nino 4 region in particular, which makes the recent El Nino appear to be the strongest on record:





The amplitude also appears to be constant over the whole period.

Nino 3.4 appears to show less of a trend, although that is probably because of the greater variation, most obvious when comparing the two 50-year periods:





Eventually, we will reach a point where the beginning of the period (assuming the average is based on the whole period) is permanently in La Nina and the end permanently in El Nino, if they don't find a way to subtract the trend (as the do with some other cycles like the PDO and AMO).
Quoting Patrap:
."Mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm....


...a Cylcone"
Happy Birthday Pat!
Have you fully recovered from your recent injury?
Quoting Patrap:
."Mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm....


...a Cylcone"
yep there is one out there
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ZELIA (10U)
11:00 AM EST January 16 2011
==========================================

At 10:00 AM EST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Zelia, Category Three (965 hPa) located at 17.5S 156.8E, or 1720 km northwest of Norfolk Island and 1070 km east of Townsville has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 110 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 23 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
===================
25 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
80 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
80 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant
100 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 20.4S 160.3E - 75 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 24.6S 163.4E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 32.7S 169.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 40.7S 175.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
========================

Eye pattern with LG surround and OW centre, giving DT of 5.0. MT 4.5 and PT 5.0. FT based on DT.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Zelia has rapidly intensified during late Saturday and into Sunday morning while moving in a favorable environment with high sea surface temperatures and weak wind shear. Zelia has also begun to increase in speed this morning with the development of an upper trough across the western Coral Sea, allowing northwesterly mid level steering to develop.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 7:00 AM UTC..
Extratropical Cyclone 05P (Vania) Warning #08 Final Warning
Issued at 15/0900Z

%u2022TC Warning Text
%u2022TC Warning Graphic
%u2022JMV 3.0 Data
%u2022Multispectral Satellite Imagery
%u2022Satellite Fix Bulletin
Tropical Cyclone 06S (Vince) Warning #07
Issued at 15/1500Z

%u2022TC Warning Text
%u2022TC Warning Graphic
%u2022JMV 3.0 Data
%u2022IR Satellite Imagery
%u2022Satellite Fix Bulletin
Tropical Cyclone 07P (Zelia) Warning #04
Issued at 15/1500Z

%u2022TC Warning Text
%u2022TC Warning Graphic
%u2022JMV 3.0 Data
%u2022IR Satellite Imagery
%u2022Satellite Fix Bulletin
Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert WTXS21
Issued at 15/0730Z

%u2022TCFA Text
%u2022TCFA Graphic
%u2022JMV 3.0 Data
%u2022Multispectral Satellite Imagery
%u2022Satellite Fix Bulletin


Current Significant Tropical Weather Advisories:


%u2022ABPW10 (Western/South Pacific Ocean)
- ABPW10 Text
- Satellite Image

%u2022ABIO10 (Indian Ocean)
- ABIO10 Text
- Satellite Image
Quoting MichaelSTL:


I myself stopped coming to this blog for a while; I hadn't posted or even read any of the comments for like two years when I came back. Of course, I left because of all of the sheer nonsense that was going on (in fact, it got so bad that people were getting bans over it, I stopped coming shortly after I was banned (from this blog), even if for only 24 hours).

On the other hand, I now wonder why I did come back (one reason though was the way certain trolls got one of my friends permabanned, not that it isn't easy to circumvent it but it destroys your standing as one of the long-term regulars, and of course incites harassment)...
I totally agree! I haven't been a memeber that long, but it seems like when I would bring up a topic on here a lot of people would rather ignore it and argue and insult each other!
Quoting lightningbolt73:
I totally agree! I haven't been a memeber that long, but it seems like when I would bring up a topic on here a lot of people would rather ignore it and argue and insult each other!
and you are in the off season things really heat up when cane season starts approaching
this is just hissy fit contest season right now
It's interesting to see that the south pac and the south io are finally starting to heat up with tropical activity.
Quoting Cochise111:


Where's the CRU data, which formed the basis for the IPCC report?


LOL the IPCC uses different peer reviewed literature STUDIES on climate.

So its whatever study you have a problem with.

Which something deep down tells me you dont know.
624. beell
Probably worth keeping an eye on for Monday.



DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 AM CST SAT JAN 15 2011

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...SYNOPSIS...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THIS PERIOD WITH A BROAD
SYNOPTIC TROUGH OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND CORRESPONDING
UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE WRN THIRD. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH TX SUNDAY WILL TURN EWD AS
IT ENTERS UPPER TROUGH BASE AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NERN GULF AND
GULF COASTAL AREA MONDAY...REACHING FL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NWD INTO THE SRN FL PENINSULA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.

...SRN HALF OF FL PENINSULA...

WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH SRN FL MONDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EWD AND SLY FLOW STRENGTHENS IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH
. LOW-MID 60S DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT NWD INTO SRN FL
CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION...BUT INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN
MARGINAL DUE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF WARM FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ELEVATED. HOWEVER...SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
WARM SECTOR OVER SRN FL
WHERE DIABATIC WARMING CAN DESTABILIZE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 40+ KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND HODOGRAPHS WILL
ALSO BE ENHANCED WHERE THE LLJ INTERSECTS THE WARM FRONT. THREAT
WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES. UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE EXTENT OF DESTABILIZATION
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR PRECLUDES INTRODUCING MORE THAN 5% SEVERE
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME...BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..DIAL.. 01/15/2011
Would anybody like to engage me in a discussion about our warming Earth?
Quoting JFLORIDA:


LOL the IPCC uses different peer reviewed literature STUDIES on climate.

So its whatever study you have a problem with.

Which something deep down tells me you dont know.
You laugh, but don't answer the question. Where is the CRU raw data?
Quoting beell:
Probably worth keeping an eye on for Monday.



DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 AM CST SAT JAN 15 2011

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

...SYNOPSIS...

LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THIS PERIOD WITH A BROAD
SYNOPTIC TROUGH OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND CORRESPONDING
UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE WRN THIRD. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH TX SUNDAY WILL TURN EWD AS
IT ENTERS UPPER TROUGH BASE AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NERN GULF AND
GULF COASTAL AREA MONDAY...REACHING FL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NWD INTO THE SRN FL PENINSULA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.

...SRN HALF OF FL PENINSULA...

WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH SRN FL MONDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EWD AND SLY FLOW STRENGTHENS IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH
. LOW-MID 60S DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT NWD INTO SRN FL
CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION...BUT INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN
MARGINAL DUE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. DEVELOPING ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF WARM FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ELEVATED. HOWEVER...SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
WARM SECTOR OVER SRN FL
WHERE DIABATIC WARMING CAN DESTABILIZE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 40+ KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND HODOGRAPHS WILL
ALSO BE ENHANCED WHERE THE LLJ INTERSECTS THE WARM FRONT. THREAT
WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES. UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE EXTENT OF DESTABILIZATION
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR PRECLUDES INTRODUCING MORE THAN 5% SEVERE
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME...BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..DIAL.. 01/15/2011
Quoting Cochise111:
You laugh, but don't answer the question. Where is the CRU raw data?


Yea there is no need of that from me.

It station data - seriously - no kidding. It is the weather record. Also the results are independently verified.

Read the articles on it. Not the ones in the popular press or the political blogs but the first hand accounts and what the professionals say.

The story wasn't true from the beginning.
Data available from the Climate Research Unit. I am sure cochise111 will read it all thoroughly. Others may want a look. It took me less than 30 seconds to find on google.
Antarctic sea ice is currently the second or third lowest on record:





So it was higher a month or two ago, but it isn't having any problems melting right now; the reason why it was higher was because of the strongest positive Antarctic Oscillation on record, as the NSIDC also notes (note that it was also strongly positive at this time in 2008 and 2009).
I'm never taking the kids out to eat again for a long time.They were terrible!.They were crowling up under the table and making loud noises.And guess what?...Their all boys!!!
Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm never taking the kids out to eat again for a long time.They were terrible!.They were crowling up under the table and making loud noises.And guess what?...Their all boys!!!


Take em outside, cause of course you can't do this in public or you are arrested, and hit them a few times with a small stick. Next time there will be no crawling under the table.
Quoting KrippleCreekFerry:
Would anybody like to engage me in a discussion about our warming Earth?


Everything that needs to be said has been said said here somewhere around 10 to 100 times. Minds changed............0. Minds actually listening maybe 2 out of a hundred.
Quoting twincomanche:


Take em outside, cause of course you can't do this in public or you are arrested, and hit them a few times with a small stick. Next time there will be no crawling under the table.
You're talking child abuse. Shame on you.
Quoting twincomanche:


Take em outside, cause of course you can't do this in public or you are arrested, and hit them a few times with a small stick. Next time there will be no crawling under the table.


Actually, that depends more on the kid and not necessarily the method of discipline. Corporal punishment doesn't seem to work on my own siblings (I'm over 10 years older than all but one of them >_>), for example.
Quoting KrippleCreekFerry:
You're talking child abuse. Shame on you.


Funny how I wasn't traumatized at all despite having been spanked frequently as a child.
Quoting KrippleCreekFerry:
You're talking child abuse. Shame on you.


Yes I am and that's how my kids got raised and they both work with me as adults, and both of them consider me their best friend. Go figure.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Funny how I wasn't traumatized at all despite having been spanked frequently as a child.
Striking a child teaches them that violent solutions to problems is the way to go. Not good.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm never taking the kids out to eat again for a long time.They were terrible!.They were crowling up under the table and making loud noises.And guess what?...Their all boys!!!


Little kids do that. My sisters used to horrify me when we would go out. I just learned to tune it out. Someone will tell me if they kill someone so I don't pay attention and make myself fixate on enjoying the food.
Quoting KrippleCreekFerry:
Striking a child teaches them that violent solutions to problems is the way to go. Not good.


Nonsense.
Quoting KrippleCreekFerry:
Striking a child teaches them that violent solutions to problems is the way to go. Not good.


How about it teaches them boundaries, something sadly lacking here and in modern life..
Quoting JFLORIDA:


Little kids do that. My sisters used to horrify me when we would go out. I just learned to tune it out. Someone will tell me if they kill someone so I don't pay attention and make myself fixate on enjoying the food.


"Someone will tell me if they kill someone"

Arizona?? Just saying, that's part of what we are worried about. It's all about values.
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, we can settle this age thing right now. What were you doing when the 2nd Peloponnesian War broke out. Gotcha!


Hey Gro:

Just looking if anything worthwhile reading before going back to my book...

Did you get to meet Thucydides? I've read some of his work. The plague sounds awful.

Wel te rustig
Quoting twincomanche:


How about it teaches them boundaries, something sadly lacking here and in modern life..
Do you know that shaking a young child violently can cause permanent brain damage?
Quoting KrippleCreekFerry:
Do you know that shaking a young child violently can cause permanent brain damage?


Typical for this blog. Never suggested that dude.
Quoting Grothar:


The only time I insert a movie quote or rarely, if ever post music, it is to divert the blog from getting ugly. I never to do to disrupt a legitimate dialogue. (great movie, though)


I think the video posts help us to realize the blog atmosphere we're in at certain times.

Quoting bappit:

My post previous to this illustrates the reality that not even saturation bombing with reasonable argument will resolve the situation. It all becomes tiresome.

Edit: I should have said "The quote in my previous post ..." LOL


I read that as "limestone", but you can only fill so much.

Quoting Patrap:
..."I Triple Dog Dare ya.."


Boy rescued after getting tongue stuck on icy pole

by Associated Press

wwltv.com

Posted on January 12, 2011 at 10:18 AM

WOODWARD, Okla. %u2013 (AP) In a scene straight from the movie "A Christmas Story," an 8-year-old Oklahoma boy got his tongue stuck to a metal pole after he licked it on a dare.


That's why every Canadian knows not to stick your tounge on cold metal.

Quoting pinehurstnc:
i thought 6 months might ,,,just might,, turn this blog into what it was 2 years ago.. i was wrong,, no need to say any thing rude,, it has been said over and over , and, i miss storm w


+1

Quoting xcool:



ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE


Keeper's models are being updated, but a massive cold snap later January will be compounded by that Hudson-forming low set to bring in more high pressure vortex air.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm never taking the kids out to eat again for a long time.They were terrible!.They were crowling up under the table and making loud noises.And guess what?...Their all boys!!!
Quoting JFLORIDA:


Little kids do that. My sisters used to horrify me when we would go out. I just learned to tune it out. Someone will tell me if they kill someone so I don't pay attention and make myself fixate on enjoying the food.


I'm not (yet) a parent, but here's an idea...*calmly* remind them that eating out is a privilege.
649. flsky
Quoting twincomanche:


How about it teaches them boundaries, something sadly lacking here and in modern life..

Yikes!
how about an eletric belt everytime they act up give em a zap 110

or better yet get a tazer that will fix em up


Quoting AstroHurricane001:


I'm not (yet) a parent, but here's an idea...*calmly* remind them that eating out is a privilege.


Hahaha, you have not yet encountered the the mini people. My advise, get some help before they walk.
Quoting flsky:

Yikes!

What a thought!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting twincomanche:


Typical for this blog. Never suggested that dude.
Thank God you know that it's not cool to shake a child. But you think it's OK to strike a child with a switch? Please consider other forms of discipline such as time outs. Please!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
how about an eletric belt everytime they act up give em a zap 110

or better yet get a tazer that will fix em up




No they need to get the good girl or good boy, that's the other half of the equation.
You know they actually grew out of it. Little kids are wild and unreasonable. You just gotta let go and relax.
Quoting KrippleCreekFerry:
Thank God you know that it's not cool to shake a child. But you think it's OK to strike a child with a switch? Please consider other forms of discipline such as time outs. Please!


Duh, you are such a twit. Shaking a child can result in brain damage but paddling their little butts can on result in a little ego damage. Get a grip on the difference.
Quoting JFLORIDA:
You know they actually grew out of it. Little kids are wild and unreasonable. You just gotta let go and relax.
thats what i did with my boy he use to act up then i would act up worst takes the focus off him to me then it was not fun anymore i have never smacked my son no spankings no punishment what so ever
joshua is a very well behave little boy and iam proud of him we talk all the time play vids together he is growing fast now 10 i got 8 more years to go
Quoting MichaelSTL:


I myself stopped coming to this blog for a while; I hadn't posted or even read any of the comments for like two years when I came back. Of course, I left because of all of the sheer nonsense that was going on (in fact, it got so bad that people were getting bans over it, I stopped coming shortly after I was banned (from this blog), even if for only 24 hours).

On the other hand, I now wonder why I did come back (one reason though was the way certain trolls got one of my friends permabanned, not that it isn't easy to circumvent it but it destroys your standing as one of the long-term regulars, and of course incites harassment)...


Amazing, you throw daggars at all who don't see things your way and then seek sympathy.



Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
how about an eletric belt everytime they act up give em a zap 110

or better yet get a tazer that will fix em up


You're not funny. I've seen children with cigarette burns, electrical burns, belt marks,etc. It's repulsive. They rarely did anything more than act like children. Violence teaches them the wrong thing. NO EXPERT recommends it in any form.
660. flsky
Quoting KoritheMan:


Funny how I wasn't traumatized at all despite having been spanked frequently as a child.

Are you sure?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
thats what i did with my boy he use to act up then i would act up worst takes the focus off him to me then it was not fun anymore i have never smacked my son no spankings no punishment what so ever
joshua is a very well behave little boy and iam proud of him we talk all the time play vids together he is growing fast now 10 i got 8 more years to go

Good luck , you still have the teen years to deal with. If there is no fear when they decide they know more then you there may a real problem trying to exert any influence on their behavior.
Quoting KrippleCreekFerry:
You're not funny. I've seen children with cigarette burns, electrical burns, belt marks,etc. It's repulsive. They rarely did anything more than act like children. Violence teaches them the wrong thing. NO EXPERT recommends it in any form.
it was not meant to be funny
Quoting KrippleCreekFerry:
You're not funny. I've seen children with cigarette burns, electrical burns, belt marks,etc. It's repulsive. They rarely did anything more than act like children. Violence teaches them the wrong thing. NO EXPERT recommends it in any form.


You are off not getting what the rest of us are talking about. Read back please.
664. flsky
Quoting KrippleCreekFerry:
Striking a child teaches them that violent solutions to problems is the way to go. Not good.

So true. Why would you teach a child that violence is best? Is that all the parenting skills you have? I imagine you've been "taught" by violence by your own family. Perpetual crap is very sad.
Speaking of abuse Green Bay is whipping the Dirty Birds 45 to 21.
WTH has this blog become? Look at the comments prior to this. Wow, unbelievable !

Quoting twincomanche:


You are off not getting what the rest of us are talking about. Read back please.
no I'm not. Please explain your philosophy.
Quoting flsky:

So true. Why would you teach a child that violence is best? Is that all the parenting skills you have? I imagine you've been "taught" by violence by your own family. Perpetual crap is very sad.


Beam me up Scotty, there's no intelligent life down here.
Quoting Patrap:
..."I Triple Dog Dare ya.."


Boy rescued after getting tongue stuck on icy pole

by Associated Press

wwltv.com

Posted on January 12, 2011 at 10:18 AM

WOODWARD, Okla. %u2013 (AP) In a scene straight from the movie "A Christmas Story," an 8-year-old Oklahoma boy got his tongue stuck to a metal pole after he licked it on a dare.
Hmmm.... wonder if the friends thought he was cool or just dumb afterwards.... lol
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


I'm not (yet) a parent, but here's an idea...*calmly* remind them that eating out is a privilege.
Eh I didn't want to cook dinner today becuase heck it's saturday,and after a long week well you get the idea.My duaghter was over at a friends sleep over so she wasn't there when all this happend,and my husband was gone to work.If their dad was there they would've behaved much better.I don't want to be known to the kids as a push over.Each of them got a tap on the behind as soon as we got back.
So did Zelia absorb Vania the way they were suggesting it might?
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hmmm.... wonder if the friends thought he was cool or just dumb afterwards.... lol
Quoting KrippleCreekFerry:
no I'm not. Please explain your philosophy.


Explaining to you child including a little corporal punishment what the boundaries are is not abuse it's good parenting. Letting the child just explore with no boundaries is a disaster to any kids development.
675. flsky
Quoting Grothar:


The blog was much nicer two years ago. Many of the regulars have left. I don't blog as much as I once did. It seems that every comment or observation turns into a challenge. There were many helpful people who answered questions about tropical weather and weather questions in general without a mass attack. Now if you simply say, It was cold here today, you can be sure someone will answer with, "Well, it wasn't that cold". I would be willing to forgo civility just for a little politeness.

I can't really say I agree with this. There are many tools on this blog that helps cull the nonsense. I recommend being selective in what you take seriously. There are SO many intelligent, informative people on this blog. Seek them out!
I'll say this ever one has different parenting skills.Ever parent has their way on how to punish their child when they do bad behavior.Not ever parents methods are alike.
Quoting lightningbolt73:
It's interesting to see that the south pac and the south io are finally starting to heat up with tropical activity.
It's still pretty quiet over near Africa, though. Guess things won't heat up in the western SInd until Feb [like Aug in the ATL].

Zelia's 80 mph winds are the equivalent of what, 105 mph on our scale?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


LOL :)

Quoting twincomanche:


Explaining to you child including a little corporal punishment what the boundaries are is not abuse it's good parenting. Letting the child just explore with no boundaries is a disaster to any kids development.
Time outs work just as well if not better. You accomplish all your goals, you set the rules and lay down boundaries and you teach them healthy modern ways to interact with others. AND you don't feel guilt later.
Quoting LoveStormsatNight:
Data available from the Climate Research Unit. I am sure cochise111 will read it all thoroughly. Others may want a look. It took me less than 30 seconds to find on google.
I swear some of these questions must be rhetorical. The same people seem to be asking the same questions again and again.... or is that just my deja vu kicking in....
Humm, seems there is an echo here, gnight :)

Quoting BahaHurican:
It's still pretty quiet over near Africa, though. Guess things won't heat up in the western SInd until Feb [like Aug in the ATL].

Zelia's 80 mph winds are the equivalent of what, 105 mph on our scale?
Their scale confuses the hell outta me sometimes.And whatever you so don't go to wikipedia to search up cyclones in the indian ocean along with the typhoon season's ,because the information will likley be wrong.
Quoting BahaHurican:
I swear some of these questions must be rhetorical. The same people seem to be asking the same questions again and again.... or is that just my deja vu kicking in....
the sayin broken record mean anything too ya
685. flsky
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

What in the world is this supposed to mean????
Quoting flsky:

What in the world is this supposed to mean????
what
the pillow is calling time for some sleep later wunder ground
On the eating out with small kids.... if they crawl under the table at home all the time, how would they know things are different when they go out?

If they normally sit at the table and eat when u are at home, what made them act differently?

Bottom line is, you have to figure out what motivated the inappropriate behaviour. AND you have to set your expectations out clearly BEFORE you go out to eat. Finally, there have to be consequences. I STRONGLY disagree with hitting small children with anything other than your hand. A small spank on the bottom or hand with your hand NOT A STICK OR ANYTHING ELSE!!!! should only serve as an attention-getter, NOT as a punishment. BUT there should be some consequence for inappropriate behaviour. You shouldn't just let them get away with it, so to speak.

Since you saw the bad behaviour this time, this is a good time to talk with your kids about what they did that was good and bad [I am assuming they did SOMEthing they were supposed to lol]. Explain to them what you expect the next time you go out. Remind them just before you eat out about good behaviour, and also - VERY important - about the consequences of not behaving well. Then, if they misbehave, they get the punishment. If they behave well, praise them. Even very small children of 2 and 3 can understand this. They are, after all, not dumb....

I agree some parameters for behaviour should be set and rewards and consequences should be given. I don't agree hitting with a switch is a good punishment. I don't agree punishing a child when they don't have any idea that what they are doing is wrong is a good idea.
Quoting KrippleCreekFerry:
You're not funny. I've seen children with cigarette burns, electrical burns, belt marks,etc. It's repulsive. They rarely did anything more than act like children. Violence teaches them the wrong thing. NO EXPERT recommends it in any form.

Here's a good one: smack them on the head with a large ring on your finger. The hair covers any marks you make. Plus the ring is always handy when you need it. I've witnessed that in public. I almost started a fight.
Quoting twincomanche:


Beam me up Scotty, there's no intelligent life down here.
Glad to see u r including yourself in that....
I didn't see this posted, but I thought this was important.

Haiti revises quake death toll up to over 316,000
Quoting BahaHurican:
On the eating out with small kids.... if they crawl under the table at home all the time, how would they know things are different when they go out?

If they normally sit at the table and eat when u are at home, what made them act differently?

Bottom line is, you have to figure out what motivated the inappropriate behaviour. AND you have to set your expectations out clearly BEFORE you go out to eat. Finally, there have to be consequences. I STRONGLY disagree with hitting small children with anything other than your hand. A small spank on the bottom or hand with your hand NOT A STICK OR ANYTHING ELSE!!!! should only serve as an attention-getter, NOT as a punishment. BUT there should be some consequence for inappropriate behaviour. You shouldn't just let them get away with it, so to speak.

Since you saw the bad behaviour this time, this is a good time to talk with your kids about what they did that was good and bad [I am assuming they did SOMEthing they were supposed to lol]. Explain to them what you expect the next time you go out. Remind them just before you eat out about good behaviour, and also - VERY important - about the consequences of not behaving well. Then, if they misbehave, they get the punishment. If they behave well, praise them. Even very small children of 2 and 3 can understand this. They are, after all, not dumb....

I agree some parameters for behaviour should be set and rewards and consequences should be given. I don't agree hitting with a switch is a good punishment. I don't agree punishing a child when they don't have any idea that what they are doing is wrong is a good idea.
I totally agree with your remarks. There must be follow up a day or so after the incident where the parents discusses what led to the discipline the day before. I remember as a child my father would blow up over something insignificant I did and there was never any real explanation what I did wrong. So the episodes repeated themselves.
Why is the blog talking about ways of punishing children anyway? Unless parents abuse their children, which is NEVER acceptable, it's private family business.
Yesterday, the Environmental Protection Agency vetoed the largest mountaintop removal mining permit in the history of West Virginia, and one that has been at the heart of these new coalfield wars for a decade.



697. xcool
Quoting LoveStormsatNight:
Why is the blog talking about ways of punishing children anyway? Unless parents abuse their children, which is NEVER acceptable, it's private family business.
But that's the problem. Some think it is OK to strike a child. Leave marks on a child and go to the ER for something else and if the ER personnel suspect abuse you may be having an interview with Child Protection. It's the law.
Wow... some really weird things happen in Dallas... and I don't just mean the weather.... lol
Child abuse is terrible, but there are other places on the internet to discuss it. This is a weather site.
xcool~ making me drool for some rain..


Health experts are concerned about homeowners cleaning-up after the floods, with several people coming down with a mystery illness. Five people are being treated in Queensland hospitals, and have been tested for infectious diseases, believed to be flood-related. 'People need to be properly protected while wading through floodwaters, as they could be exposed to bacteria and viruses', says Queensland Health.
Just let the kids be free and run around without punishment. They will learn to behave eventually one day.
By the way...
Is there something wrong with this picture btw? No strict punishment is part of the problem with all the troubled missbehaved kids/young adults out there.
The Iraqi guards patrolling the frontier with Iran are supposed to be on the lookout for smugglers, drug traders and weapons traffickers. For the past six months, however, the border guards in southern Iraq have spent much of their time trying to keep out another unwanted visitor - polluted water. According to officials and residents living along the border zone close to Basra, 590 kilometres south of Baghdad, the problem of waste water, thick with salt and toxins, seeping in from Iran has become acute, poisoning the land and making farming all but impossible. "We just finished putting up a 40km dirt berm along a stretch of the frontier," said Colonel General Dharfar Nathmi Jamal, head of the Iraqi Border Patrol in Basra province. While the berm is intended to have a deterrent effect on smugglers, it is also designed with water in mind. "The berm will help to stop the waste water draining from Iran and coming straight into Iraq," said Gen Jamal. "We need to limit the pollution of the lands. It's sad but it's now so bad that there will be no wheat production here this year." The berm project, worth US$82,600 (Dh303,000), is part of a wider plan that also includes the renovation of an old wall between Iran and Iraq, built at the time of their eight-year war in the 1980s. Officials hope that renewed fortification will play a dual role, keeping out unwanted people and water contaminated with salt. "My job is to protect the country and I will work hard to protect Iraq and its people, whatever the cause of the damage," said Gen Jamal, shrugging off the suggestion that border guards are not employed to protect the environment. "We are supporting the Iraqi farmers and we will continue to do that by trying to keep the polluted water out." more here
Quoting LoveStormsatNight:
Child abuse is terrible, but there are other places on the internet to discuss it. This is a weather site.


I like Nea's observations and philosophy:

"This forum, like most other great ones, is what the members make of it. At times the talk is of tropical storms. At other times, it's of the climate. At still other times, severe weather somewhere in the world. Or someone's birthday. Or a departed member. Or philosophy. Or lame attempts at humor. Or endless movie quotes. Or football discussions. Or seeing who can post the most 80s/90s music videos. Or whatever. The thing is, this forum doesn't exist as passive entertainment; if you don't like the mainstream of the current discussion, you're completely free to add your own $.02 about anything within bounds that tickles your fancy. But don't be upset if the previous dialog continues to be woven around and through the topic you started; after all, you wouldn't IRL wade into the middle of a ten-way conversation and insist that everyone change the topic because it wasn't to your liking, would you?"
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:



from what I'm seeing from the models, the HPC might want to adjust its QPF upwards a bit across Florida. The last few forecasts have had the tendency to have a strong "La Nina bias". Which I have to admit, up until the last few weeks, its been terribly dry, but ever since the last week of December, every system has brought heavier rain than forecast, because forecasters assumed the models were overdoing it.

However, they may have to learn again on monday that the pattern has changed :)
Quoting Neapolitan:

Boy, do you have that right. Between the nowcasters, the doomcasters, the fearcasters, the upcasters, the herecasters, the downcasters, and all the rest, it's amazing how much good tropical weather science gets discussed.



yeah, I'm glad to see things have settled down here recently. However, I got almost guarantee I'd win a bet that by this summer these blogs will get down right stupid. I think gambling is foolish, but just saying, its that predictable. I sometimes believe people come in during hurricane season just to cause trouble who don't give a crap about weather science.


Heck that occurs year round, too. It just gets that much worse during hurricane season.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ZELIA (10U)
5:00 PM EST January 16 2011
==========================================

At 4:00 PM EST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Zelia, Category Three (957 hPa) located at 19.0S 158.7E, or 1460 km northwest of Norfolk Island and 890 km west northwest of Noumea has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 24 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
===================
25 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
100 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant
120 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 22.8S 162.1E - 80 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 27.3S 165.5E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 38.3S 171.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 51.1S 175.2W - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
========================

Eye pattern with B surround and LG centre, giving DT of 5.0. MT and PT both suggest 5.0. FT based on DT.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Zelia has rapidly intensified over the past 24 hours while moving in a favorable environment with high sea surface temperatures and weak wind shear. Zelia has also increased in speed during today with the development of an upper trough across the western Coral Sea, allowing northwesterly mid level steering to develop.

Zelia will begin to move over cooler sea surface temperatures south of New Caledonia on Monday and as a result should begin to weaken during the day.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 14:00 PM UTC by Fiji Meteorological Services..
708. xcool

For West Palm Beach...Forecast to get some good rains tomorrow afternoon and evening.

First 'cane of the 2011 calendar year.
Another very sad facet of all this deadly flooding ...
----------

Koalas, kangaroos victims of Aussie floods

By Eric Bernaudeau
Agence France-Presse
First Posted 13:44:00 01/16/2011
- East Asia

BRISBANE - Snakes clung to floating debris, crocodiles lurked near homes and sharks swam the streets in Australia's epic floods -- but many more animals died in the deluge, experts say.

The devastating floods that smashed through the nation's northeast would have drowned wombats in their burrows, trapped and starved kangaroos in waterlogged paddocks, and deprived many other creatures of food and habitat.

The rushing waters, which swept away koalas, lizards and frogs and seethed with snakes, could also have a long-lasting impact on the country's unique wildlife, the Australian Veterinary Association has warned.

"The immediate thing is that many would have died," wildlife expert Robert Johnson told AFP.

"But the long-term thing is that the ones that would have survived, they don't have much of a habitat."

Many animals -- particularly young kangaroos and wallabies -- will likely die over the coming months after falling prey to parasites as they deal with the stresses of their resting and feeding places being wiped out, he said.

The dirty brown floodwaters would have also washed away eggs laid by turtles along the Queensland coast and threatened the habitats of frogs -- meaning numbers will be profoundly reduced this year.

Read more:
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/breakingnews/world/view/20110116-314771/Koalas-kangaroos-victims-of-Au ssie-floods
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ZELIA (09U)
0:00 AM FST January 17 2011
=====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Zelia, Category Three (957 hPa) located at 20.6S 160.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots and is reported as moving southeast at 25 knots. Position GOOD based on multispectral infrared/enhanced infrared radar imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations.

Hurricane Force Winds
======================
25 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
120 NM from the center in northern semi-circle, within 100 NM in southeast quadrant, and 60 NM in the southwest quadrant

Additional Information
========================

Organization remains good, irregular eye persist but has become cloud filled in the last 3 hours. Outflow good to west and south but inhibited elsewhere. System is being steered southeastward by a deep layer mean northwesterly regime. Cyclone is accelerating into a moderately sheared environment and cooler sea surface temperatures.

Dvorak assessment based on LG eye with black SURR, yielding DT=5.0, MET=5.5, PT=5.0. Final Dvorak T number based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24HRS.

Most global models eventually move the cyclone southeastward.

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS: 24.2S 163.8E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 28.1S 166.7E - 50 knots (CAT 2)

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at around 20:00 PM UTC..
2nd, CybrTeddy.

Fiji Meteorological Services had "VANIA" a 65 knots hurricane for a short time.
Quoting barbamz:
Another very sad facet of all this deadly flooding ...
----------

Koalas, kangaroos victims of Aussie floods

By Eric Bernaudeau
Agence France-Presse
First Posted 13:44:00 01/16/2011
- East Asia

BRISBANE - Snakes clung to floating debris, crocodiles lurked near homes and sharks swam the streets in Australia's epic floods -- but many more animals died in the deluge, experts say.

The devastating floods that smashed through the nation's northeast would have drowned wombats in their burrows, trapped and starved kangaroos in waterlogged paddocks, and deprived many other creatures of food and habitat.

The rushing waters, which swept away koalas, lizards and frogs and seethed with snakes, could also have a long-lasting impact on the country's unique wildlife, the Australian Veterinary Association has warned.

"The immediate thing is that many would have died," wildlife expert Robert Johnson told AFP.

"But the long-term thing is that the ones that would have survived, they don't have much of a habitat."

Many animals -- particularly young kangaroos and wallabies -- will likely die over the coming months after falling prey to parasites as they deal with the stresses of their resting and feeding places being wiped out, he said.

The dirty brown floodwaters would have also washed away eggs laid by turtles along the Queensland coast and threatened the habitats of frogs -- meaning numbers will be profoundly reduced this year.

Read more:
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/breakingnews/world/view/20110116-314771/Koalas-kangaroos- victims-of-Au ssie-floods


They are doing what they can to save as many as possible. Wie geht's meine Freundin?

Quoting Grothar:


They are doing what they can to save as many as possible. Wie geht's meine Freundin?


Hi, Grothar. Sehr gut, thank you. Bright sunday in Germany, inspite of some (regionally severe) flooding of the rivers. I've read the story of your grandgrandgrandfather (or something) some days ago. Interesting! So far for now. I have to go visiting my parents.
Quoting Skyepony:
Yesterday, the Environmental Protection Agency vetoed the largest mountaintop removal mining permit in the history of West Virginia, and one that has been at the heart of these new coalfield wars for a decade.

There was a nice little article on Salon.com about this yesterday.

On the coal industry's unwillingness to reach a compromise with the EPA that might have kept alive that permit: "I think [the coal] industry...is used to getting its way. During the entire Bush administration, the eight years of the Bush administration, they did things the way they wanted to do things. So there is some bluster in this -- you don't mess around with us, we're in charge here. But this is a not, how shall we put it, a dynamic industry, in the sense of innovation and change. They want to do things their way, they want to do things the old-fashioned way, they don't want to change, and they don't believe they need to. This is an industry that is used to getting by on political muscle and not on compromise."

good late morning wunderground
another day of cold here 13.8f with chills of -6.2f we could fall to 0f tonight with chills of - 10f or lower before a quick short rebound on late mon early tuseday
OMG OMG OMG



SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
130 PM AKST SAT JAN 15 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON WEAK NORTHERN GULF
TROUGH THAT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP TODAY. SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AROUND 998
MB SUN EVENING AND HELP KEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER COPPER RIVER
BASIN STRONG. ALL MODELS ALSO HINTING AT SOME TYPE OF WEAK LOW
FORMING MON NE OF KODIAK ISLAND WHICH COULD GENERATE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ON SO. KENAI PEN MON EVENING AND TUE.
THE MAJOR WEATHER ISSUE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY STRONG LOW
SW OF THE ATTU ON SUN. ALL MODELS PORTRAIT A DEEP LOW WITH A MAX
CENTRAL PRESSURE IN THE 945 TO 935 MB RANGE EARLY MON. SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCE ON NATURE OF SECONDARY LOW THAT FORMS TO THE EAST ALONG
175W MON MORNING...GFS TENDS TO BE DEEPER SOLUTION WITH NAM CLOSE
BEHIND. THIS LOW IS THEN PROGED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ALEUTIANS NEAR
DATELINE LATE TUE MORNING AROUND 945 MB. DESPITE THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES THE MESSAGE IS CLEAR...A SERIES OF POWERFUL STORMS WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BEGINNING SUN EVENING.


Looks like tomorrow I'll be getting some much needed rain here in Tampa! :)
Quoting Tazmanian:
OMG OMG OMG



SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
130 PM AKST SAT JAN 15 2011

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON WEAK NORTHERN GULF
TROUGH THAT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP TODAY. SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AROUND 998
MB SUN EVENING AND HELP KEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER COPPER RIVER
BASIN STRONG. ALL MODELS ALSO HINTING AT SOME TYPE OF WEAK LOW
FORMING MON NE OF KODIAK ISLAND WHICH COULD GENERATE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS ON SO. KENAI PEN MON EVENING AND TUE.
THE MAJOR WEATHER ISSUE IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A VERY STRONG LOW
SW OF THE ATTU ON SUN. ALL MODELS PORTRAIT A DEEP LOW WITH A MAX
CENTRAL PRESSURE IN THE 945 TO 935 MB RANGE EARLY MON. SOME MODEL
DIFFERENCE ON NATURE OF SECONDARY LOW THAT FORMS TO THE EAST ALONG
175W MON MORNING...GFS TENDS TO BE DEEPER SOLUTION WITH NAM CLOSE
BEHIND. THIS LOW IS THEN PROGED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN ALEUTIANS NEAR
DATELINE LATE TUE MORNING AROUND 945 MB. DESPITE THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES THE MESSAGE IS CLEAR...A SERIES OF POWERFUL STORMS WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BEGINNING SUN EVENING.





i want a 945mb storm
Quoting Tazmanian:



i want a 945mb storm
726. DEKRE
New Blog
Quoting Grothar:


Either that or stick my tongue to a frozen flagpole. How you doing, hydrus? Weather finally getting nice here again.
Busy...Weather is warm now (38 degrees) but will be cold again shortly...Hope you are well..