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At least 370 dead from Typhoon Bopha in the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:21 PM GMT on December 05, 2012

The death toll in the Philippines from Typhoon Bopha has risen to at 370, with hundreds more missing. Bopha (called "Pablo" in the Philippines), slammed ashore on the Philippine island of Mindanao at 4:45 am local time on Tuesday morning as a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds. Bopha is only Category 5 typhoon on record to make landfall on Mindanao, which rarely sees strong typhoons due to its position close to the Equator. Most of the deaths occurred in the gold-rush mountain towns of New Bataan and Monkayo due to typhoon-spawned landslides and flash floods. According to an op-ed published at sunstar.com, much of the death toll can be blamed on the fact that deforestation has reduced forest cover on Mindanao to just 10%, which allows more dangerous flash floods to occur. Passage over land has weakened Bopha to a Category 1 storm today, and the typhoon is now far enough from the Philippines that it no long poses a heavy rain threat. The island of Mindanao is highly vulnerable to flood disasters from tropical cyclones; last year's Tropical Storm Washi, which hit Mindanao on December 16, 2011 with 60 mph winds and torrential rains, killed over 1200 people. Before hitting the Philippines, Typhoon Bopha brought a storm surge estimated at ten feet to the island nation of Palau, where near-total destruction is being reported in some coastal areas.


Figure 1. Super Typhoon Bopha as seen from the International Space Station on December 2, 2012. At the time, Bopha had top sustained winds of 150 - 155 mph. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. The devastation brought about by powerful Typhoon Bopha is seen at Montevista township, Compostela Valley in southern Philippines Wednesday Dec. 5, 2012. (AP Photo/Bullit Marquez)

Extreme damage on Mindanao
Category 5 storms make landfall only once every few years somewhere in the world, and the damage they cause is invariably extreme and dramatic. According to a story at inquirer.net, a 10-hectare plantation of coconut trees in the town of Baganga, Davao Oriental, were all felled. It's takes some pretty extreme winds to bring down coconut trees, which commonly are the only things still standing after passage of a major hurricane or typhoon. Damage surveys from Tropical Cyclone Larry, which made landfall in 2006 in Australia as a Category 4 storm, indicated that coconut trees were able to withstand wind gusts of 135 mph, but toppled when the gusts reached 145 mph (thanks go to Dr. Bruce Buckley of the Reinsurance Group Australia for this info.) Aerial damage surveys from Mindanao (Video 1) show very heavy damage near where the eye came ashore, due to extreme winds and high storm surge.


Video 1. An aerial survey of damage near where the eye of Typhoon Bopha made landfall in Davao Oriental province on Mindanao Island in the Philippines shows widespread severe damage, bordering on catastrophic.

The International Red Cross is accepting donations for typhoon relief in the Philippines.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

PH camps overflow with typhoon homeless

NEW BATAAN, Philippines - Bruised and grieving survivors of a Philippine typhoon that killed nearly 500 people sought to pick up the pieces Friday in crowded camps housing some of the 300,000 made homeless in the disaster.

About 2,000 people were huddled in a basketball gym in the southern town of New Bataan, one of only a few buildings left standing after Typhoon Bopha ravaged the area, which is home to banana and gold mining industries.

With the overpowering stench of rotting corpses from the parking lot outside, farmer's wife Violy Saging, 38, tried to focus on the needs of her surviving children.

"It (the typhoon) snatched our life away. There is nothing left, but we are hoping our relatives or friends will take us in," she told AFP.

The body of her eldest son Rodger, 15, was found wrapped around a coconut tree that he had climbed to flee the flash floods. Her three-year-old son, the youngest of three surviving children, has a high fever.

The concrete floor of the basketball court is streaked with mud. Part of the gym's roof was blown away by the cyclone, exposing the dazed survivors to both intermittent rain and the heat of the tropical sun.

Dry space along the few benches around the court is at a premium, and Saging's family shares a small area with an elderly couple who lost six children.

The Philippines' civil defence office said more than 306,000 people had been left homeless by Bopha, the deadliest natural disaster this year for a country that is also hit regularly with quakes, floods and volcanic eruptions.

The figure had risen by 56,000 from Thursday's total, and Social Welfare Secretary Corazon Soliman said the government had appealed for immediate international aid for food, tents, water-purification systems and medicines.

"People have no houses to go home to, so they are going to the evacuation centres for shelter and relief goods," Soliman told AFP in Manila as she prepared to fly to the disaster zone with President Benigno Aquino.

Those lucky enough to be inside the New Bataan gym receive rice, instant noodles, and tinned meat.

But Soliman said they faced being stuck there for months as the government finds flood- and landslide-free places to build new shelters.

Outside the gym, Medarda Opiso, 47, joined crowds with handkerchiefs pressed to their noses as they gingerly peeled away death shrouds covering faces and bloated bodies laid out on the pavement.

Soldiers have pulled scores of dead from under the rubble and body bags are running low. But many more are still missing, including Opiso's son's wife and daughter.

"My son is in despair. He is not talking to anyone. I am afraid he will lose it," Opiso said.

The son, farmer Gomer Opiso, had been tending to his crops when the wall of water and debris obliterated nearly the entire town of 48,000 people.

But amid the despair there were also some bitter-sweet reunions.

Lucrecio Panamogan, 74, found his grown children huddled together with their families in a devastated school yard two days after the storm.

"I thought I had lost them," he told AFP, his tears welling up.

"We may no longer have a house, or any possessions, but we still have each other."
Shelter, search for survivors in storm-hit towns

MANILA, Philippines – Shelters, electricity and a search for survivors are the national government's top priorities in towns in Davao Oriental and Compostela Valley devastated by Typhoon Pablo.

President Benigno Aquino III ordered authorities to prioritize building temporary shelters and restoring power in the typhoon-hit towns of Davao Oriental and Compostela Valley.

He told residents of New Bataan, Compostela Valley that the government will do everything to search for the 357 residents still missing after the storm. He said his administration will work hard to avoid similar loss of lives in the future.

Nearly 500 people were killed while 300,000 were rendered homeless in the disaster.

"Importante sa akin, number 1, ang ating mga nawawala, yung missing gusto ko ma-account. Kung meron po sana, karamihan, kung hindi pwede lahat, ay buhay pa - maaabutan natin as soon as possible," Aquino told the residents.

"Kailangan maasikaso lahat ng nabubuhay ho, kaya nandito kami ngayon. Nandito ako para makinig, gusto kong malaman lahat ng sagot sa mga katanungang pumapalibot sa aking isipan," he added.

The President, along with Social Welfare Secretary Dinky Soliman, Interior and Local Secretary Mar Roxas and Energy Secretary Jericho Petilla, visited the worst-hit areas of Davao Oriental and Compostela Valley to assess the damage caused by Typhoon Pablo.

Soliman said the President was “very sad” when he saw the extent of damage particularly in Boston, Davao Oriental and was “very determined to identify what caused this and how can we prevent the loss of lives.”

She said one school used as an evacuation center had no roof, leaving evacuees at the mercy of the elements.

“We went down in Boston and almost all of the houses have no roofs or were flattened out. You could really see the fury of ‘Pablo’ went into these 3 [Davao Oriental] towns,” Soliman told ANC’s “News Now.”

Restore power, build shelters

Soliman said the President gave instructions to prioritize restoring power in Boston, Cateel and Baganga, the 3 towns that remain isolated because of collapsed bridges.

According to Soliman, Petilla committed that power will be restored on or before December 23.

The President also gave orders to provide shelter to the affected families who lost their homes due to strong winds.

“Tomorrow we are going to be sending our engineers from the community driven development program of the DWSD and we will start working on the bunk houses with the local government and the citizens themselves,” she said.

The 10-room bunk houses will be constructed in open areas to serve as temporary shelter.

No permanent houses yet

Soliman noted that permanent houses will not be built until the area is evaluated by the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council.

The DSWD chief said relief goods have been delivered in Compostela Valley and Davao Oriental.

The first batch of food packs were delivered Wednesday to Baganga, Cateel and Boston via boat and to New Bataan via land.

“We will continue to support until the people have normalized and stabilized the source of food,” she said.

Roxas, meanwhile, assured the affected families that more help is on the way.

He said K9 units will be deployed in the areas to assist in search and rescue efforts for the almost 400 people still missing.

The Metropolitan Manila Development Authority had also set up a water treatment facility to provide potable water for the families displaced by the typhoon.
Gov denies mining caused New Bataan flashflood

MANILA, Philippines - Compostela Valley Gov. Arturo Uy denied on Friday that flashfloods and landslides, which claimed over 200 lives in the province, were due to mining and illegal logging.

Speaking to reporters, Uy said there was no mining operation in the barangay in New Bataan hit by flashfloods and landslides at the height of typhoon Pablo's onslaught.

"I would make this very clear. 'Yung nangyari ngayon na flooding is not because of mining kasi walang minahan diyan," Uy said.

"Walang mining dito sa bundok kung saan rumagasa ang tubig. Karamihan diyan mga in-land resorts, waterfalls, ibig sabihin maraming tubig sa itaas," he added.

The governor admitted, however, that there are small-scale mining operations in some barangays in New Bataan.

He also said about 10 percent of the Compostela Valley population depends on mining industry as its main source of income.

But Uy claimed no landslide occurred in those mining areas.

"Sa ibang bayan (na may mining areas) fortunately walang reported na landslides," he said.

"Sa Barangay Diwalwal (merong mining) pero walang landslide dun. We have sa Camanlangan, not so near here, walang landslide reported. Manurigao rin (merong mining) which is medyo malayo."

Mining, logging

Environment Secretary Ramon Paje earlier said that small-scale mining was one of the factors that led to the disaster.

Mines and Geosciences Bureau Dir. Leo Jasareno, likewise, said that small-scale mining operations are rampant in the municipality of New Bataan.

Paje also said that rampant illegal logging in Davao and Caraga regions should be blamed for typhoon Pablo’s destruction.

Compostela Valley is located in Region 11 (Davao Region).

In a separate interview with radio dzMM, Uy claimed that illegal logging operations in the province have already stopped 40 years ago.

However, planting of new trees in the mountain areas and forests in the province only started a few years ago, he said.

"Ang buong probinsya kasi eh used to be a logging area 40 years ago. Noon kasi alam natin na 'di seryoso 'yung replanting. So the last five or six years (na nag-umpisa 'yung replanting), 'di kinaya 'yung mga bagong tanim, namatay talaga," Uy said.

More doctors, medicines, food supplies

The governor said at least 212 people have been reported dead in the whole province. At least 116 of the reported fatalities were residents of New Bataan, the hardest-hit area by typhoon Pablo.

Uy appealed to the national government and the private sector for more supplies of medicine and food for the evacuees.

"We need donors, doctors to help us. Growing 'yung problema natin ngayon especially sa health. We need to address 'yung pagkain nila, medical needs nila then after that ung shelter naman nila," he said.

Meanwhile, he said search and retrieval operations will continue as many bodies still remain missing.

"May alam nating patay na pero 'di pa nareretrieve. Pero meron pa ring mga survivors sa ibang barangay na medyo napatagal ang punta natin."

Uy said damages in agriculture, particularly coconut and banana plantations, and infrastructure left by typhoon Pablo has already amounted to about P4 billion.

The official death toll from the typhoon has risen to 418, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) said.

NDRRMC said the figure is expected to rise further with some 383 still missing.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Quoting AussieStorm:
omg its just horrible what happened there and i doubt any new building codes will be adapted there to prevent this from happening once again in the future..then again..even govt buildings were wiped out, nothing stands when a cat-5 hits huh
Interesting date for this to occur ...



Tsunami alert after 7.3-magnitude quake rocks Japan

TOKYO A tsunami alert was issued for Japan's northeast coast Friday after a powerful 7.3-magnitude undersea earthquake struck, setting buildings in Tokyo swaying violently.
Media reports said a one-meter-high wave could sweep ashore in Miyagi prefecture, an area badly hit by the March 2011 tsunami that devastated a large swathe of coast in the northeast, killing thousands.
Broadcaster NHK, quoting the national meteorological agency, said the tsunami is expected to hit at 5:40 pm (0840 GMT).
The United States Geological Survey measured the quakes magnitude at 7.3.
NHK said the Japan Meteorological Agency had issued a tsunami warning, one notch lower than a tsunami alert, for the Pacific coast of Iwate, Fukushima, Aomori and Ibaraki prefectures.
A 50-centimeter tsunami was expected to hit the coast of Iwate at 5:40 pm, Fukushima at 5:50 pm, and Aomori and Ibaraki at 6:00 pm.
Nuclear plant operator Tokyo Electric Power told AFP there were no reports of further damage at the crippled Fukushima nuclear plant.

Region: OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Geographic coordinates: 37.889N, 144.090E
Magnitude: 7.3 Mwp
Depth: 36 km
Universal Time (UTC): 7 Dec 2012 08:18:24
Time near the Epicenter: 7 Dec 2012 18:18:24
Local standard time in your area: 7 Dec 2012 08:18:24 Location with respect to nearby cities:
284 km (176 miles) E (97 degrees) of Sendai, Honshu, Japan
296 km (184 miles) ENE (71 degrees) of Iwaki, Honshu, Japan
319 km (198 miles) E (86 degrees) of Fukushima, Honshu, Japan
459 km (285 miles) NE (56 degrees) of TOKYO, Japan
Quoting LargoFl:
omg its just horrible what happened there and i doubt any new building codes will be adapted there to prevent this from happening once again in the future..then again..even govt buildings were wiped out, nothing stands when a cat-5 hits huh

As Dr Masters says, they are not used to such powerful Typhoons there. They may not get another Bopha/Pablo type Typhoon again for 20years.
Rebuilding Compostela Valley will take years, says gov

NEW BATAAN, Compostela Valley, Philippines—The task of rebuilding Compostela Valley from the devastating effects of Typhoon Pablo would take “years and billions of pesos” to complete, the provincial governor said Friday as local officials and residents tried to cope with the rising death toll.
Over 70 percent of the province’s area was devastated, with damage to agriculture alone pegged at almost P4 billion, according to Gov. Arturo Uy.
While the people of Compostela Valley could in time overcome their grief over their dead—the official tally stood at 201 as of late Thursday— and missing relatives— 406—Uy said regaining their livelihood would be quite difficult.
“The saddest part is that ‘Pablo’ literally wiped out people’s livelihood. People depend on agriculture and it was that sector that was hit so hard,” Uy told the Inquirer here on Friday.
Donations from the local and the national governments as well as from the private sector began to trickle in a day after Tuesday’s devastation, But Uy said the aid so far received was simply not enough. More was needed to bring normalcy back, he said.
Uy said the provincial government would first attend to the “immediate temporary needs” of those affected. “Food and clothing first, and prioritize the search operations in New Bataan,” he said.
Uy said the affected families cannot stay for long in schools, gymnasiums and other public buildings so the government has to look for safer and more permanent places for them.
About 24,700 families or over 120,000 people were displaced in Compostela Valley, according to figures released by the Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction Management Council. The province has a population of about 700,000.
“Our bigger problem now is where will these people stay?” the governor said.
Uy also reacted to reports (not in the Inquirer) that the people of the province were ill-prepared despite warnings about the strong typhoon’s approach being repeatedly made days before it actually made landfall.
“With the magnitude (of the destruction) caused by the typhoon, our preparations were put to naught,” he said, urging unity.
“Let’s be strong. Maybe this is just a test for us. We would strive to address your concerns. Please just bear with us if we cannot address your needs right away,” he said.
In Cateel, Davao Oriental, food and medicine were also scarce for a population of about 50,000, according to Mayor Carmelo Nuñez.
“Practically, everybody here is affected,” he said.
Relief goods have started coming in, but Nuñez said they were not enough.
While money was needed to procure food and medicines for the typhoon victims, a state of calamity, which would enable the local government to draw a portion of its annual budget, had yet to be formally declared.
Nuñez said the Sangguniang Bayan has yet to convene, nearly a week since Pablo made landfall in Davao Oriental.
Typhoon victims were seen foraging and scavenging for food.
At the town center, the Inquirer saw a group of residents dividing a sack of rain-drenched rice.
Emotions ran high among typhoon victims as food was scarce.
A group of residents even asked the Inquirer if taking photos of the devastation would do them any good.
“Sana makarating sa labas na wala na kaming kinakain dito,” one resident said.
Leopolda Casina, 48, a mother of seven, said no assistance had reached them as of yet.
“Wala talaga,” she said outside a shanty fashioned from material salvaged from what used to be her home in the village of Maribojoc.
Casina said they lost their means of livelihood. The fishing banca the family has owned was swept away during the typhoon.
Asked what she would do, Casina said: “I don’t know. We will take it slowly.”
Injured residents also continued to flock to the town’s district hospital, which has been condemned after Pablo blew its ceiling off. At least three patients were now lying on hospital beds in an adjacent building. Its two physicians were spotted attending to out-going patients.
Medicines were lacking and many patients were seen leaving a makeshift hospital without getting treatment. For example, Angela Inabuan, 42, left without getting an anti-tetanus shot for a wound on the left foot.
“I stepped on a nail,” she said.
In North Cotabato, the excess water that Pablo dumped in northern and eastern Mindanao finally found its way into the Rio Grande de Mindanao Friday and caused it to swell even more.
In Kabacan town, 13 villages were now submerged and about 1,722 families had to flee, North Cotabato Gov. Emmylou Taliño-Mendoza said.
In Maguindanao, Gov. Esmael Mangudadatu said 600 families from Montawal and Pagalungan towns, both of which Rio Grande traverses, had fled toward the national highway as water inundated their villages.
Loreto Rirao, Civil Defense director for the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao, said a team from the Regional Disaster and Risk Reduction Management Council had been deployed to assist the evacuees and provide them temporary shelter.
Mangudadatu said as the water in the Rio Grande continued to rise, and the towns of Datu Piang, Rajah Buayan, Mamasapano, Kabuntalan, and Sultan sa Barongis were being closely watched. These towns lie along the river’s course leading to the Liguasan Marsh.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #94
TYPHOON BOPHA (T1224)
18:00 PM JST December 7 2012
=======================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In South China Sea

At 9:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Bopha (960 hPa) located at 15.1N 116.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0

Storm Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===============
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 16.7N 116.5E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) South China Sea
45 HRS: 16.8N 116.9E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea
69 HRS: 16.7N 117.6E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
still intensifying.. about 90 knots estimate (1 min)
Quoting Jedkins01:
Is anyone here currently attending FSU for meteorology? Is so, maybe I'll see ya around this spring. I'm officially in transferring for this spring semester!
Congratulations, that's awesome
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
still intensifying.. about 90 knots estimate (1 min)


Unbelievable!




Quoting Neapolitan:
In no particular order:

1) Challenge and question anything anyone has ever told you. Anything: religion, politics, love, life. Be prepared to accept new input, and to free yourself of dogmas and ideologies that have been stamped into your brain by parents, teachers, politicians, priests, and other authority figures.

2) Register to vote, then vote. Regardless of what some may tell you, it's the only non-abstract way for your voice to be heard in this loud world.

3) Remember that it's far easier to keep weight off than it is to lose it once it's been gained.

4) Realize that your family may not be perfect, but it's the only one you've got. Cherish it.

5) Don't watch TV any more than you have to. Seriously. But read everything you can get your hands on.

6) As you grow older, you'll realize that your parents are human the same as you, and eventually you'll forgive them for all the little wrongs you think they've done. With that in mind, go ahead and forgive them now; that'll save you a lot of years of anguish.

7) Enjoy being 18; it only comes around once, and it flies right by if you spend the whole year wishing you were older.

words to live by
Quoting AussieStorm:
Tsunami alert after 7.3-magnitude quake rocks Japan

TOKYO A tsunami alert was issued for Japan's northeast coast Friday after a powerful 7.3-magnitude undersea earthquake struck, setting buildings in Tokyo swaying violently.
Media reports said a one-meter-high wave could sweep ashore in Miyagi prefecture, an area badly hit by the March 2011 tsunami that devastated a large swathe of coast in the northeast, killing thousands.
Broadcaster NHK, quoting the national meteorological agency, said the tsunami is expected to hit at 5:40 pm (0840 GMT).
The United States Geological Survey measured the quakes magnitude at 7.3.
NHK said the Japan Meteorological Agency had issued a tsunami warning, one notch lower than a tsunami alert, for the Pacific coast of Iwate, Fukushima, Aomori and Ibaraki prefectures.
A 50-centimeter tsunami was expected to hit the coast of Iwate at 5:40 pm, Fukushima at 5:50 pm, and Aomori and Ibaraki at 6:00 pm.
Nuclear plant operator Tokyo Electric Power told AFP there were no reports of further damage at the crippled Fukushima nuclear plant.

Region: OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Geographic coordinates: 37.889N, 144.090E
Magnitude: 7.3 Mwp
Depth: 36 km
Universal Time (UTC): 7 Dec 2012 08:18:24
Time near the Epicenter: 7 Dec 2012 18:18:24
Local standard time in your area: 7 Dec 2012 08:18:24 Location with respect to nearby cities:
284 km (176 miles) E (97 degrees) of Sendai, Honshu, Japan
296 km (184 miles) ENE (71 degrees) of Iwaki, Honshu, Japan
319 km (198 miles) E (86 degrees) of Fukushima, Honshu, Japan
459 km (285 miles) NE (56 degrees) of TOKYO, Japan


NO SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE REPORTED...YET
7.3 an aftershock of 6.2
Video of the 7.3 Quake hitting Tokyo Japan
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


NO SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE REPORTED...YET
7.3 an aftershock of 6.2

Aftershock of 5.5 also
1 metre tsunami has hit parts of Japan hit by the massive tsunami in March 2011.
Flooding has been reported.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Video of the 7.3 Quake hitting Tokyo Japan

Amazing, people just sit there like they are on a train going over points!
Why is today 7 Dec. An interesting day for this to occur, according to:-
"507. OracleDeAtlantis"
Quoting PlazaRed:

Amazing, people just sit there like they are on a train going over points!
Why is today 7 Dec. An interesting day for this to occur, according to:-
"507. OracleDeAtlantis"

especially the guy that sits down at his desk and brings up a few windows. He was like... meh... just a quake. If that was me I would be under the desk. I guess it comes with how frequent they get quakes.

I have no idea why today is an interesting day
Quoting AussieStorm:

especially the guy that sits down at his desk and brings up a few windows. He was like... meh... just a quake. If that was me I would be under the desk. I guess it comes with how frequent they get quakes.

I have no idea why today is an interesting day


was a surprise military strike conducted by the Imperial Japanese Navy against the United States naval base at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, on the morning of December 7, 1941
Quoting whitewabit:


was a surprise military strike conducted by the Imperial Japanese Navy against the United States naval base at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, on the morning of December 7, 1941

That's tomorrow. It was Demeber 7 in Hawaii and December 8 in Japan.
Quoting AussieStorm:

especially the guy that sits down at his desk and brings up a few windows. He was like... meh... just a quake. If that was me I would be under the desk. I guess it comes with how frequent they get quakes.

I have no idea why today is an interesting day

The thing that strikes me is that they dont even talk to each other about what is going on!
You would imagine that if that was in some parts of the world the panic and screaming would be unbelievable.
Maybe 7 December has some thing to do with WW2.
I always try to be explicit about these things.
Anybody heard from Grother and Keeper, odd they haven't been on with all this stuff going on?
Maybe they are preparing for the end of the world on the solstice thing?
Quoting AussieStorm:

That's tomorrow. It was Demeber 7 in Hawaii and December 8 in Japan.


Today is the 7th of Dec in the US
Quoting whitewabit:


Today is the 7th of Dec in the US


The air portion of the attack on Pearl Harbor began at 7:48 a.m. Hawaiian Time (3:18 a.m. December 8 Japanese Standard Time, as kept by ships of the Kido Butai),with the attack on Kaneohe. So I guess in 6hrs 45mins it will be exactly 71 years ago the attack started.
Off topic but mildly funny.

Several words commonly in use in languages around the world have been deemed politically incorrect by a survey on global media.

Topping the list compiled by The Global Language Monitor are the Swedish words for "His and Her", "Peanut Butter Sandwich", "Columbus", "Normal" and "Pet Owner".

According to the organization, which analyzes and catalogues trends in word usage, the results of the Seventh Global Survey "once again illustrates the difficulty in engaging in public dialogue without offending those on the right, left, center, or various combinations thereof."

We are seeing that continued attempts to remove all bias from language is itself creating an entirely new set of biases, said Paul JJ Payack, president and chief word analyst of The Global Language Monitor.

Other words and phrases in the list are "Skin Lightening", "Black Peter (Zwarte Piet)", "Holding Down the Fort", "Rule of Thumb", "White Males of European Descent", "Handicap", "Prayer", "Global English", "Politically Correct", "Phobes", "Speech Codes", "Settled Science", "Dutch Treat", and "Global Warming/Climate Change".

The list:

'His and Her' (Sweden) The Swedes once again promoting gender-neutrality, this time its with personal pronouns: him [han in Swedish], her [hon] and he/she [hen].

Peanut Butter Sandwich -- Deemed by a Portland grade-school principal to be culturally insensitive to children of other cultures.

Columbus Explorer's Day, please. Offensive to those who believe Columbus was the beginning of a 16th c. 'Ethnic Cleansing' of American Indians, Native Americans, or First Peoples.

Normal (Australia) -- According to new guidelines, normal persons in the presence of people with disabilities should not be referred to as 'normal' but rather non-disabled persons.

Pet Owner -- It is becoming less acceptable to 'own' animals, pet owners have been transformed into 'pet guardians'.

Skin Lightening (India)-- A new phenomenon where Indian women lighten their skin to achieve a 'fair total-body complexion'.

Black Peter (Zwarte Piet) (Netherlands and Belgium) -- The companion of Sinterklaas (Santa Clause), most frequently portrayed by whites in blackface. First introduced in the mid-nineteenth century, Black Peter is now considered by many, a racist stereotype.

Holding Down the Fort -- Possibly offensive to Native Americans, since we all know who the forts was being held down against.

Rule of Thumb (UK) -- Originates from the old English dictum that a husband could not beat his wife or children with any stick wider than his thumb.

White Males of European Descent --From press accounts, you would think this population segment should soon be placed on the EPA's endangered species list.

Handicap (UK) -- Aside from the 'disabled' reference, 'handicap can be offensive to beggars, with 'cap in hand'.

Christmas -- Considered by many under siege until supporters realized that the 'holidays' in 'happy holidays' originated from 'holy days' and the 'X' in Xmas is the Greek letter 'chi,' representing the first two letters of Christ.

Prayer -- In public the favored word substitute for 'prayer' is now 'thoughts,' as in 'keep hen in your thoughts and wishes'.

Global English -- The dominance of the English language worldwide is opposed by those who think it the result of linguistic imperialism or Western Hegemony. Either way, not good.

Politically Correct -- The term politically correct is still politically incorrect (or is it incorrect?).

Phobes -- The Loyal Opposition? How 19th century, of you; opponents are now cast as afraid and fearful, a '-phobe'.

Speech Codes -- Limiting free-speech by declaring what is considered offensive off-limits. A hot topic on campus.

Settled Science -- In 1925 it was settled science that rockets would not fly in Outer Space. Beware of Settled Science.

Dutch Treat -- Possibly offensive to the Dutch, since it portrays them as either (take your choice) thrifty (good) or stingy (bad).

Global Warming/Climate Change -- As the temperature continues to rise, the debate continues as to its primary cause. Either phrase is a potential minefield.
Good Morning folks! and Happy Friday!!....say I FINALLY got a rain shower last night..enough to wet the street down some...gee its been so long..maybe the dry pattern will change now,.
From Yahoo News.



DOHA, Qatar (AP) -- U.N. climate talks are heading into the final stretch with a host of issues unresolved, including a standoff over how much money financially stressed rich countries can spare to help the developing world tackle global warming.

That issue has overshadowed the talks since they started last week in Qatar, the first Middle Eastern country to host the slow-moving annual negotiations aimed at crafting a global response to climate change.

Tensions built up Thursday — the penultimate day on the schedule — as the Philippines made an emotional call for action to keep global warming in check, citing the devastation caused by a powerful typhoon that killed around 350 people.

Meanwhile, Greenpeace and five other activist groups accused rich nations of pushing the talks to the "brink of disaster," while a small group of warming skeptics appeared at a side event where they dismissed the entire process as a sham to transfer wealth to the poor world.

British climate change skeptic Christopher Monckton even managed to slip into a conference hall where he addressed a plenary session, apparently mistaken for an official delegate. A tweet from the U.N. climate secretariat said he was "debadged and escorted out" of the venue "for impersonating a Party" and violating the conference's code of conduct.

Rich nations pledged three years ago to deliver long-term financing to help poor nations switch to clean energy and adapt to rising sea levels and other impacts of global warming. They offered $10 billion a year in 2010-2012 in "fast-start" financing and said the amount would be ramped up to $100 billion in 2020. But they didn't say how.

Developing countries are demanding firm pledges before the Doha conference ends, like a midterm target of $60 billion in the next three years, or written agreement that funds will be scaled up annually until 2020. But rich countries have been reluctant to make such commitments, citing the financial turmoil that is straining their budgets.

"We are not going to leave here with promises upon promises," said Gambia delegate Pa Ousman Jarju, who represents a group of least developed countries. "The minimum that we can get out of here is a demonstration that there will be $60 billion on the table moving onward."

Negotiators were working into the night trying to resolve that issue. They were also trying to finalize an agreement to formally extend the Kyoto Protocol, an emissions pact for rich countries that expires at the end of this year.

The U.S. never joined Kyoto while Japan, New Zealand, Canada and Russia don't want to be part of the extension, meaning it would only cover about 15 percent of the world's emissions of greenhouse gases.

Governments have set a deadline of 2015 to agree on a wider deal that would include both developed and developing countries, which now represent a majority of the world's emissions.

Philippine envoy Naderev Sano said that deadly storms like Typhoon Bopha, which hit his country earlier this month, were nightmare scenarios the world may face more frequently if climate change is left unchecked.

"As we vacillate and procrastinate here, we are suffering," he said. "Heartbreaking tragedies like this are not unique to the Philippines."

Climate scientists say it's difficult to link a single weather event to global warming. But some contend the damage caused by the recent Hurricane Sandy and other tropical storms was worse because of rising sea levels.

The goal of the U.N. talks is to keep temperatures from rising more than 2 C (3.6 F), compared to preindustrial times. Temperatures have already risen about 0.8 C (1.4 F) above that level, according to the latest report by the U.N.'s top climate body.

A recent projection by the World Bank showed temperatures are expected to increase by up to 4 C (7.2 F) by the year 2100.

"I'm getting concerned that ministers are not stepping up to the mark and providing solutions that we need at this stage of the game," Gregory Barker, Britain's minister of climate change told The Associated Press.

"We need increased flexibility on all sides and a higher sense of urgency," he said. "Developed countries also need to demonstrate a clear ambition across the board in terms of climate goals."

Climate activists focused their criticism on developed nations. Kumi Naidoo of Greenpeace said the U.S., in particular, was a stumbling block to the negotiations.

The Obama administration has already taken some steps to rein in emissions, such as sharply increasing fuel efficiency standards for cars and trucks and investing in green energy. But a climate bill that would have capped U.S. emissions stalled in the Senate.

In a message to the conference, U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer said "there are leaders in Congress who understand the urgent threat facing the globe, and we are dedicated to preventing the terrible impacts of unchecked climate change."

Her message contrasted with that of another U.S. senator, Republican Jim Inhofe, who spoke in a video recording shown at the side event in Doha with climate skeptics. Calling global warming a "hoax," he said the focus of the Doha conference was not the environment, but "spreading the wealth around."

In 2010, a survey of more than 1,000 of the most cited and published climate scientists found that 97 percent of them believe climate change is very likely caused by the burning of fossil fuels.

"It's getting harder and harder to be a climate denier as the evidence of climate change grows," said Michael Oko, a spokesman for the World Resources Institute, an environmental think tank. "Fortunately, I'm sure the negotiators here won't let this take away from what needs to be done to address this global challenge. We need more solutions, not distractions."
Goodness! I wasn't expecting this from Bopha.
Quoting Ameister12:
Goodness! I wasn't expecting this from Bopha.
omg someone else will be getting this
7-day for the Tampa Bay area............
Quoting AussieStorm:

That's tomorrow. It was Demeber 7 in Hawaii and December 8 in Japan.
No, it was Friday, December 07, 2012 at 06:18:24 PM at epicenter
Pretty impressive that Bopha has managed to reintensify, it really wasn't expected to at all, actually it was expected to steadily weaken. Raw T# would suggest it's nearing Cat 5 status, it's a 6.8, although I imagine that's substantially too high. Still likely close to 100kts:



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 DEC 2012 Time : 103000 UTC
Lat : 15:22:51 N Lon : 115:57:21 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 962.4mb/ 99.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.4 5.5 6.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km

Center Temp : +9.8C Cloud Region Temp : -74.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 67km
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 33.0 degrees
Texas is cooling down now................
Good morning/evening all. 54 degrees with 100% humidity, not rain, fog. My heart goes out to those people. It will be a very long time before things even begin to look semi-normal for them.
7.3 earthquake...............Japan
Quoting LargoFl:
omg someone else will be getting this


NE Luzon Island Philippines is going to get it. The cold front coming down out of China will push it East or ENE.
Looks like old man winter is waking up on the east coast.............SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
622 AM EST FRI DEC 7 2012

MDZ001-PAZ009-016-023-074-076-WVZ041-071215-
FAYETTE RIDGES PA-FOREST PA-GARRETT MD-INDIANA PA-JEFFERSON PA-
TUCKER WV-WESTMORELAND RIDGES PA-
622 AM EST FRI DEC 7 2012

...POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND FOG WILL AFFECT EASTERN
GARRETT...EASTERN INDIANA...EASTERN JEFFERSON...NORTHEASTERN
FAYETTE...NORTHEASTERN FOREST...SOUTHEASTERN TUCKER AND SOUTHEASTERN
WESTMORELAND COUNTIES...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ADVISES TRAVELERS CROSSING THE
MOUNTAINS BE ALERT FOR POCKETS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN UNTIL DAYBREAK
AROUND 730 AM. AIR TEMPERATURES NEAR 32 DEGREES WILL BE CLIMBING
AFTER SUNRISE...ENDING THIS HAZARD.

TRAVELERS CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING ALSO NEED TO BE ALERT
FOR LOW VISIBILITIES IN FOG AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AS RAIN CLOUDS
HAVE BECOME LOW ENOUGH TO ENSHROUD THE RIDGE TOPS. THIS VISIBILITY
HAZARD COULD LAST INTO MIDDAY.

HIGHWAYS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
I-68 IN MARYLAND BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 22 AND 30.
I-76 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 92 AND 100.
I-80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 91 AND 96.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER BY CALLING...412-262-1988...POSTING
TO THE NWS PITTSBURGH FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER
@NWSPITTSBURGH.
Quoting LargoFl:
7.3 earthquake...............Japan

LOL, your a bit late. that was about 2hrs ago.
Quoting AussieStorm:


NE Luzon Island Philippines is going to get it. The cold front coming down out of China will push it East or ENE.
geez going to get hit again?..those poor people
Quoting AussieStorm:

LOL, your a bit late. that was about 2hrs ago.
yes i know but it was a cool graphic lol
Quoting LargoFl:
yes i know but it was a cool graphic lol

If you think so.
What had been a blurry picture about polar ice %u2014 especially how it impacts sea levels %u2014 just got a whole lot clearer as experts on Thursday published a peer-reviewed study they say puts to rest the debate over whether the poles added to, or subtracted from, sea level rise over the last two decades.


"This improved certainty allows us to say definitively that both Antarctica and Greenland have been losing ice," lead author Andrew Shepherd of the University of Leeds in Britain, told reporters. Not only that, but the pace has tripled from the 1990s, the data indicate.

Combining satellite data from dozens of earlier studies, the study "shows that the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets have contributed just over 11 millimeters (0.4 inches) to global sea levels since 1992," he added. Two-thirds was from Greenland, a third from Antarctica.


Link
Quoting AussieStorm:

LOL, your a bit late. that was about 2hrs ago.



Those of us on the east coast of the US are just waking up to the news.
547. yoboi
Quoting percylives:
From Yahoo News.



DOHA, Qatar (AP) -- U.N. climate talks are heading into the final stretch with a host of issues unresolved, including a standoff over how much money financially stressed rich countries can spare to help the developing world tackle global warming.

That issue has overshadowed the talks since they started last week in Qatar, the first Middle Eastern country to host the slow-moving annual negotiations aimed at crafting a global response to climate change.

Tensions built up Thursday — the penultimate day on the schedule — as the Philippines made an emotional call for action to keep global warming in check, citing the devastation caused by a powerful typhoon that killed around 350 people.

Meanwhile, Greenpeace and five other activist groups accused rich nations of pushing the talks to the "brink of disaster," while a small group of warming skeptics appeared at a side event where they dismissed the entire process as a sham to transfer wealth to the poor world.

British climate change skeptic Christopher Monckton even managed to slip into a conference hall where he addressed a plenary session, apparently mistaken for an official delegate. A tweet from the U.N. climate secretariat said he was "debadged and escorted out" of the venue "for impersonating a Party" and violating the conference's code of conduct.

Rich nations pledged three years ago to deliver long-term financing to help poor nations switch to clean energy and adapt to rising sea levels and other impacts of global warming. They offered $10 billion a year in 2010-2012 in "fast-start" financing and said the amount would be ramped up to $100 billion in 2020. But they didn't say how.

Developing countries are demanding firm pledges before the Doha conference ends, like a midterm target of $60 billion in the next three years, or written agreement that funds will be scaled up annually until 2020. But rich countries have been reluctant to make such commitments, citing the financial turmoil that is straining their budgets.

"We are not going to leave here with promises upon promises," said Gambia delegate Pa Ousman Jarju, who represents a group of least developed countries. "The minimum that we can get out of here is a demonstration that there will be $60 billion on the table moving onward."

Negotiators were working into the night trying to resolve that issue. They were also trying to finalize an agreement to formally extend the Kyoto Protocol, an emissions pact for rich countries that expires at the end of this year.

The U.S. never joined Kyoto while Japan, New Zealand, Canada and Russia don't want to be part of the extension, meaning it would only cover about 15 percent of the world's emissions of greenhouse gases.

Governments have set a deadline of 2015 to agree on a wider deal that would include both developed and developing countries, which now represent a majority of the world's emissions.

Philippine envoy Naderev Sano said that deadly storms like Typhoon Bopha, which hit his country earlier this month, were nightmare scenarios the world may face more frequently if climate change is left unchecked.

"As we vacillate and procrastinate here, we are suffering," he said. "Heartbreaking tragedies like this are not unique to the Philippines."

Climate scientists say it's difficult to link a single weather event to global warming. But some contend the damage caused by the recent Hurricane Sandy and other tropical storms was worse because of rising sea levels.

The goal of the U.N. talks is to keep temperatures from rising more than 2 C (3.6 F), compared to preindustrial times. Temperatures have already risen about 0.8 C (1.4 F) above that level, according to the latest report by the U.N.'s top climate body.

A recent projection by the World Bank showed temperatures are expected to increase by up to 4 C (7.2 F) by the year 2100.

"I'm getting concerned that ministers are not stepping up to the mark and providing solutions that we need at this stage of the game," Gregory Barker, Britain's minister of climate change told The Associated Press.

"We need increased flexibility on all sides and a higher sense of urgency," he said. "Developed countries also need to demonstrate a clear ambition across the board in terms of climate goals."

Climate activists focused their criticism on developed nations. Kumi Naidoo of Greenpeace said the U.S., in particular, was a stumbling block to the negotiations.

The Obama administration has already taken some steps to rein in emissions, such as sharply increasing fuel efficiency standards for cars and trucks and investing in green energy. But a climate bill that would have capped U.S. emissions stalled in the Senate.

In a message to the conference, U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer said "there are leaders in Congress who understand the urgent threat facing the globe, and we are dedicated to preventing the terrible impacts of unchecked climate change."

Her message contrasted with that of another U.S. senator, Republican Jim Inhofe, who spoke in a video recording shown at the side event in Doha with climate skeptics. Calling global warming a "hoax," he said the focus of the Doha conference was not the environment, but "spreading the wealth around."

In 2010, a survey of more than 1,000 of the most cited and published climate scientists found that 97 percent of them believe climate change is very likely caused by the burning of fossil fuels.

"It's getting harder and harder to be a climate denier as the evidence of climate change grows," said Michael Oko, a spokesman for the World Resources Institute, an environmental think tank. "Fortunately, I'm sure the negotiators here won't let this take away from what needs to be done to address this global challenge. We need more solutions, not distractions."




the dems have the majority in the US senate and could not pass a bill.....
Quoting goosegirl1:



Those of us on the east coast of the US are just waking up to the news.


Region: OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Geographic coordinates: 37.889N, 144.090E
Magnitude: 7.3 Mwp
Depth: 36 km
Universal Time (UTC):7 Dec 2012 08:18:24
Time near the Epicenter: 7 Dec 2012 18:18:24
284 km (176 miles) E (97 degrees) of Sendai, Honshu, Japan

Followed by....

Region: OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Geographic coordinates: 37.939N, 143.763E
Magnitude: 6.2 mb
Depth: 29 km
Universal Time (UTC): 7 Dec 2012 08:31:14
Time near the Epicenter: 7 Dec 2012 18:31:14
254 km (158 miles) E (97 degrees) of Sendai, Honshu, Japan

Followed by....

Region: OFF EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Geographic coordinates: 37.849N, 143.581E
Magnitude: 5.5 mb
Depth: 34 km
Universal Time (UTC): 7 Dec 2012 08:48:15
Time near the Epicenter: 7 Dec 2012 18:48:15
240 km (149 miles) E (100 degrees) of Sendai, Honshu, Japan

Now everyone is up to speed.
Everyone have a great Friday and Aussie, enjoy your Saturday!
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Everyone have a great Friday and Aussie, enjoy your Saturday!

I will try to. You have a great Friday, Best day of the week.
Dial 'G' for "Gah!" :



"(4) North Carolina: The question of how to stop rising sea levels is one of the central policy challenges of our time. Do you: (a) Implement a cap-and-trade system? (b) Raise fuel efficiency standards? (c) Fund research into green technology like electrofuels? North Carolina's state Senate went with d) Outlaw sea level rise. Seriously. As my colleague Kate Sheppard explained:

The sea level along the coast of North Carolina is expected to rise about a meter by the end of the century. But business interests in the state are worried that grim projections that account for climate-induced sea level rise will make it harder for them to develop along the coast line. So policymakers in the state plan to deal with that issue by writing a law requiring inaccurate projections.

A study published two weeks after the vote concluded that sea levels on the North Carolina coast were rising faster than anywhere on earth. If only the bill had passed."


Link
I wonder if this will reach me in Florida next week
Quoting MontanaZephyr:
Dial 'G' for "Gah!" :



"(4) North Carolina: The question of how to stop rising sea levels is one of the central policy challenges of our time. Do you: (a) Implement a cap-and-trade system? (b) Raise fuel efficiency standards? (c) Fund research into green technology like electrofuels? North Carolina's state Senate went with d) Outlaw sea level rise. Seriously. As my colleague Kate Sheppard explained:

The sea level along the coast of North Carolina is expected to rise about a meter by the end of the century. But business interests in the state are worried that grim projections that account for climate-induced sea level rise will make it harder for them to develop along the coast line. So policymakers in the state plan to deal with that issue by writing a law requiring inaccurate projections.

A study published two weeks after the vote concluded that sea levels on the North Carolina coast were rising faster than anywhere on earth. If only the bill had passed."


Link
I doubt Humans have the sheer ability to change what the earth has been doing from the beginning..warm to cold,cold to warm etc..we may have a little influence but in the overall scheme of things, the earth will do what it wants to do,regardless of what we want it to do..
554. beell
A change in the pattern ahead as the mean position of the trough shifts west over the center of the CONUS while persistent low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska is replaced by a ridge upstream of the trough. More like winter?



Left to right:0000 UTC GFS 500mb Height/Anomaly Forecasts for day 5, 8, & 11
5-Day Means Centered on Days 5 and 8, 7-Day Mean Centered on Day 11 (click for full images).

www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/mrfmeans.shtml
Quoting beell:
A change in the pattern ahead as the mean position of the trough shifts west over the center of the CONUS while persistent low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska is replaced by a ridge upstream of the trough. More like winter?



Left to right:0000 UTC GFS 500mb Height/Anomaly Forecasts for day 5, 8, & 11
5-Day Means Centered on Days 5 and 8, 7-Day Mean Centered on Day 11 (click for full images).

www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/mrfmeans.shtml
this is a good thing, many states need the snowfall to replenish their water supplies come spring
for Florida, this could be..a life changing event for our grand children..................Harold Wanless, chairman of the University of Miami's Department of Geological Sciences, predicted a 1.5 foot rise in sea level in 50 years and a three- to five-foot increase by the end of the century.


"Three feet's going to get messy," he said. "Four feet becomes extremely difficult to live in South Florida and five feet probably impossible."


At two feet, South Florida would still be livable, Wanless said


Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,309177,00.html #ixzz2EMrPSMZ4............from 2007 I believe
Quoting LargoFl:
I doubt Humans have the sheer ability to change what the earth has been doing from the beginning..warm to cold,cold to warm etc..we may have a little influence but in the overall scheme of things, the earth will do what it wants to do,regardless of what we want it to do..


Global Warming/Climate Change -- As the temperature continues to rise, the debate continues as to its primary cause. Either phrase is a potential minefield.
Scientists predict MY county and tampa bay under water in 100 years,here is the new coastline...........
Yikes! Government Details 6 Most Terrifying Arctic Trends

Link
560. beell
Quoting LargoFl:
this is a good thing, many states need the snowfall to replenish their water supplies come spring


Should be a good pattern for snow for the Rocky Mountain states as a series of shortwaves move through the mean trough.
Quoting LargoFl:
Scientists predict MY county and tampa bay under water in 100 years,here is the new coastline...........

Imagine all the new fishing areas. LOL
I dont know why..they believe My county will be totally under water..my house is 44 feet above sea level but...Almost every resident in the Tampa Bay area lives very close to sea level. This fact puts Florida and the Tampa Bay area at the front lines of the fight against global warming, whether we want to be there or not. It is unnerving to look at a United States map of rise in sea level predictions, and notice that your home is in the area that is going to see the first and worst of the problem. In short, scientists predict that Pinellas county and the rest of the Tampa Bay area will be under water in less than 100 years
Quoting AussieStorm:

Imagine all the new fishing areas. LOL
yeah your right there..but then the gators will be moving northward..oh oh...LOL
Quoting LargoFl:
Good Morning folks! and Happy Friday!!....say I FINALLY got a rain shower last night..enough to wet the street down some...gee its been so long..maybe the dry pattern will change now,.


Good for you Largo. I got nada. And today looks to be the same :(
Miami NWS

A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...SBCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1500 J/KG RANGE AND LI/S AROUND -5C SHOULD YIELD
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY DURING DAYTIME HEATING
HOURS.

THERE IS DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE LONG TERM MODELS WITH THE EVOLUTION
OF THIS FRONT. THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT THROUGH THE SOUTH FLORIDA
AREA THURSDAY MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT BACK ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA DEVELOPING A SECONDARY LOW ALONG ITS TRAILING EDGE.
THE ECMWF IS ALSO MUCH SLOWER IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE PARENT H5
SHORTWAVE. MAINLY KEPT PERSISTENCE FOR NOW. SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR CONFORMITY.
Quoting FtMyersgal:


Good for you Largo. I got nada. And today looks to be the same :(
yes it was great to see the shower alright..sky is total overcast here this moring
GFS, once again, is showing snow amounts anywhere from 1' to 1" of snow after the 204hr time frame.

00Z


06Z
Quoting LargoFl:
yes it was great to see the shower alright..sky is total overcast here this moring


I had light fog driving into work this morning. Our forcast is to be in the low to mid 80's all next week.
the cool front must be over me now
570. VR46L
Quoting FtMyersgal:


Good for you Largo. I got nada. And today looks to be the same :(


Sounds like the FtMyers shield is back up . You will be stir crazy by May. LOL You know if I could, I would send most of the rain ,I get across the atlantic to ya.
Quoting VR46L:


Sounds like the FtMyers shield is back up . you will be stir crazy by May. LOL You know if I could, I would send most of the rain ,I get across the atlantic to ya.


That's very kind of you VR. Yeah this is technically our dry period but if we don't get some precip soon we will be on fire by May
Quoting FtMyersgal:


That's very kind of you VR. Yeah this is technically our dry period but if we don't get some precip soon we will be on fire by May
sure has been a very dry couple of months here on the west coast
Bopha is likely a Category 3-equivalent once again. If it had deeper convection, it'd be a Category 4.

from NWS.............TSUNAMI!
November 1, 1755 - Lisbon, Portugal
October 11, 1918 - Puerto Rico
November 18, 1929 - Newfoundland
August 4, 1946 - Dominican Republic
August 18, 1946 - Dominican Republic
November 14, 1840 - Great Swell on the Delaware River
November 17, 1872 - Maine
January 9, 1926 - Maine
May 19, 1964 - Northeast USA
POSSIBLE TSUNAMI
June 9, 1913 - Longport, NJ
August 6, 1923 - Rockaway Park, Queens, NY. An article on triplicate waves."
August 8, 1924 - Coney Island, NY. Contains a discussion, “An Observed Tsunami Building In Coastal Waters?"
August 19, 1931 - Atlantic City, NJ
September 21, 1938 - Hurricane, NJ coast.
July 3-4, 1992 - Daytona Beach, FL
Asteroid Strikes - Toms Canyon, NJ, and the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay.


:-)

Snowy greetings from Germany (Mainz), cam is very near my house. It's the first significant snow event this winter in my low level area at Rhine River.
Quoting barbamz:


:-)

Snowy greetings from Germany (Mainz), cam is very near my house. It's the first significant snow event this winter in my low level area at Rhine River.
looks beautiful there
with a 100 meter sea rise..our new coastline
Quoting LargoFl:
sure has been a very dry couple of months here on the west coast


But for for Isaac, the east coast would be in the same situation. The Isaac feeder band that trained over us really messed things up. Essentially wiped out the St. Lucie estuary.. be four five years before it is right again.
Quoting LargoFl:
looks beautiful there


Thanks. Yeah, it is, especially the old town center where I live and work.
Quoting whitewabit:


was a surprise military strike conducted by the Imperial Japanese Navy against the United States naval base at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, on the morning of December 7, 1941


It was an act of aggression, a declaration of war...the U.S. was neutral. Anyway, 72 and foggy here in NOLA
Quoting LargoFl:
Scientists predict MY county and tampa bay under water in 100 years,here is the new coastline...........

It probably isn't correct to say "scientists predict my county...under water in 100yrs" - but perhaps saying it is in the range of predictions. No specific value is a prediction because there are still differences in assumptions put into the models, and differences in the models themselves, although the observed changes have been near the top of the expected range.
Quoting LargoFl:
I doubt Humans have the sheer ability to change what the earth has been doing from the beginning..warm to cold,cold to warm etc..we may have a little influence but in the overall scheme of things, the earth will do what it wants to do,regardless of what we want it to do..

I doubt you have paid much attention to the natural world, nor the scientists that spend their life paying that attention for you.
Quoting ScottLincoln:


It probably isn't correct to say "scientists predict my county...under water in 100yrs" - but perhaps saying it is in the range of predictions. No specific value is a prediction because there are still differences in assumptions put into the models, and differences in the models themselves, although the observed changes have been near the top of the expected range.
all morning I have been reading and searching the web and the most Ive seen are maps showing, yes the beaches under water and some of the real low lying right on the coastline under water but Most of my county is high and dry..now a 100 meter rise would flood my whole state..gee
Do yall think NE North Carolina going to see snow this year? Because it's been on and off cold and warm, and I really don't think we'll get any..
For the past 6,000 years, the world's sea level gradually approached the current level. During the previous interglacial about 120,000 years ago, sea level was for a short time about 6 metres (20 ft) higher than today, as evidenced by wave-cut notches along cliffs in the Bahamas. There are also Pleistocene coral reefs left stranded about 3 metres above today's sea level along the southwestern coastline of West Caicos Island in the West Indies. These once-submerged reefs and nearby paleo-beach deposits indicate that sea level spent enough time at that higher level to allow reefs to grow (exactly where this extra sea water came from—Antarctica or Greenland—has not yet been determined). Similar evidence of geologically recent sea level positions is abundant around the world
Quoting AztecCe:
Do yall think NE North Carolina going to see snow this year? Because it's been on and off cold and warm, and I really don't think we'll get any..
well they did have freezing rain in penna and maryland this morning, cold is getting closer to you,still a little early yet
Quoting LargoFl:
all morning I have been reading and searching the web and the most Ive seen are maps showing, yes the beaches under water and some of the real low lying right on the coastline under water but Most of my county is high and dry..now a 100 meter rise would flood my whole state..gee

You're not alone....
100 m. rise would displace almost half the worlds population.......
Quoting LargoFl:
with a 100 meter sea rise..our new coastline
Can someone explain what all the talk is about this 100meter sea level rise? That'd be bad for me i'd be underwater!
Quoting AztecCe:
Can someone explain what all the talk is about this 100meter sea level rise? That'd be bad for me i'd be underwater!


I'll be underground.
Quoting AztecCe:
Can someone explain what all the talk is about this 100meter sea level rise? That'd be bad for me i'd be underwater!

Dont worry.
It's just some folks having fun comparing different possibilities.

It's not going to happen soon ! If ever.
PNoy to declare state of national calamity
MANILA, Philippines – President Benigno Aquino III will declare a state of national calamity as recommended by the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC), Communications Secretary Ricky Carandang said Friday.
Source
Looks good underneath.

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I'll be underground.

Watch out for them Hobbits.....
Quoting AztecCe:
Can someone explain what all the talk is about this 100meter sea level rise? That'd be bad for me i'd be underwater!
I take it as the scientists who study these things are trying to show us, the real dangers involved with the ice sheets melting..I know we all hear it and then we move on to something else in our lives but..the future is dim if this ice melting continues, our grandkids and their kids might be seeing a very different world..its how the earth does things..warm to cold and back again..we now..are just alive to see the very early beginnings of it going to the warmer period...could be worse..the earth could have gone to the ice age cold huh..
Quoting barbamz:
PNoy to declare state of national calamity
MANILA, Philippines – President Benigno Aquino III will declare a state of national calamity as recommended by the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC), Communications Secretary Ricky Carandang said Friday.
Source
this is going to be terrible once again gee
Bopha has a nice small core again, like just before landfall in Palau and Baganga Mindanao.

ALOT of fog in florida today..drive carefully folks this morning
Quoting LargoFl:
Scientists predict MY county and tampa bay under water in 100 years,here is the new coastline...........


The site where man first left the Earth to another planet will be completely submerged. Depressing thought. Generations after us will be unable to stand upon the site, though the Apollo landing sites will still be on the Moon.
Quoting LargoFl:
ALOT of fog in florida today..drive carefully folks this morning

Severe Fog can be deadly. Please drive safely.
Quoting LargoFl:
with a 100 meter sea rise..our new coastline


It wont rise THAT much!
Quoting CybrTeddy:


The site where man first left the Earth to another planet will be completely submerged. Depressing thought. Generations after us will be unable to stand upon the site, though the Apollo landing sites will still be on the Moon.
yes you could be right there..i read this morning that some of the apollo guys are going into private business, planning for private moon missions,the next 20 years could be very interesting indeed if they can come up with enough revenue
Bopha is amazing

215
wdpn31 pgtw 070900
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/prognostic reasoning for typhoon 26w (Bopha) warning nr 47//
rmks//
1. For meteorologists.
2. 6 hour summary and analysis.
Typhoon (TY) 26w (Bopha) located approximately 300 nm west of
Manila, Philippines has tracked north-northeastward at 07 knots over
the past six hours. Animated multispectral satellite imagery shows a
recent rapid increase in organization with the development of an
11nm eye. A 070319z trmm microwave image concurs with the msi in the
recent rapid intensification showing deep convection completely
wrapping around the eye and a band of deep convection over the
northern semi-Circle. Animated total precipitable water imagery
continues to indicate dry air wrapping to the south of the system
but TY 26w is maintaining a warm moisture feed from the east. The
current position is based upon the aforementioned imagery with high
confidence. The current intensity has been increased to 80 knots
based upon a rapid rise in congruent Dvorak estimates from all
agencies now reporting 77 knots. Upper level analysis indicates that
TY 26w has developed a point source anti-cyclone over it which is
providing ample radial outflow and a low (05-10 knots) vertical wind
shear (vws) environment. TY 26w is tracking to the north-northeast
along the axis of deep layered subtropical ridge (str) to the east.
3. Forecast reasoning.
A. The forecast philosophy has been shifted to a slow looping
scenario based upon the recent rapid intensification event which has
shifted the steering level. Intensities have been increased in all
Taus as well.
B. TY 26w is forecast to slowly track north to northeast along
the axis of the str to the east for the next 36 hours. After tau 36,
the steering will become very weak as a col between two deep-layered
strs, develops over the region. By tau 72, the western lobe of the
str will become the dominant steering influence, along with the
northeasterly flow at the lower levels, driving the system towards
the southwest, picking up speed. Intensities will increase for the
next 24 hours as TY 26w maintains its warm moisture feed and
continues to have a favorable upper-level environment. After tau
24, TY 26w will slowly weaken as environmental conditions become
less favorable.
C. After tau 72, TY 26w will proceed southwest picking up speed
as it tracks along with the northeast monsoon. Environmental
conditions will remain less than favorable as a surge in the monsoon
flow brings in cold dry Continental air into the region allowing for
slow weakening to 50 knots by tau 120. Dynamic models, with the
exception of GFDN, show a slow loop in the South China Sea, with a
large variance in the extent and sharpness of The Loop. The official
jtwc forecast lies close to multi-model consensus through tau 36,
but favors the GFS and ECMWF solution, due to consensus being
pulled north by WBAR. Due to the weak steering environment, large
variance in model solutions, and undetermined interaction with the
northeast monsoon surge, overall forecast confidence remains low.//


Quoting FunnelVortex:


It wont rise THAT much!
that was a worst case scenerio if..antartica melted also..i read some time ago the ice sheets there were 2 miles thick..whew..thats ALOT of ice.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Severe Fog can be deadly. Please drive safely.


You mean dense fog can be deadly.
606. ARiot
I really like my local weather guy. He's a real-deal, not talent.

Anyway, my beef with him lately, as our average lows lately have been about what the average highs should be, is that every time a little push of "normal" winter temps is rolling in, he hypes it up, by saying "it's going to be much colder."

No, my brother, we're going to have a few days of normal weather, with one night of hard freeze that is barely below normal. After that, according to you, we'll be back up in the 10-15 above normal, as good as 10 day outlooks are, of course.

It's just surreal to hear that a short return to normal is pitched/sold as a "strong cold snap."
Quoting LargoFl:
this is going to be terrible once again gee



Weather forecast Philippines
At 4:00 p.m. today, the eye of Typhoon "PABLO" was located at 530 km Northwest of Coron, Palawan or 445 km West of Subic, Zambales (14.9%uFFFDN,115.8%uFFFDE) with maximum sustained winds of 120 kph and gustiness of up to of 150 kph. It is forecast to move North Northeast at 7 kph. Northeast Monsoon affecting Northern Luzon. Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) affecting Mindanao.

More (including gale and wave warnings for the north-western coast of the Philippines)

As much as I understand the "state of calamity" has been declared in order to handle the aftermath of the typhoon in Mindanao.

Hopefully the forecast turning Bopha to the southwest away from the northern coasts will be right!

Quoting LargoFl:
that was a worst case scenerio if..antartica melted also..i read some time ago the ice sheets there were 2 miles thick..whew..thats ALOT of ice.


Antarctia is growing as Greenland is shrinking. The two balance eachother out.
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Antarctia is growing as Greenland is shrinking. The two balance eachother out.
..NO..not true.................FRISCO — New data from sensors in the Amundsen Sea suggest more strongly than ever that warm ocean currents are causing extensive ice loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.

Ice in the area is melting faster than expected and could contribute significantly to sea level rise, but there’s been very little data from the region. The latest observations by oceanographers from the University of Gothenburg (Sweden) were recently published in the journal Nature Geoscience.

Previous research by the British Antarctic Survey showed that rising air temperatures in the region will break down a hydrological boundary of cold water, allowing warmer water to infiltrate beneath the ice.

“There is a clear reduction in the ice mass in West Antarctica, especially around the glaciers leading into the Amundsen Sea,” said researcher Lars Arneborg from the Department of Earth Sciences at the University of Gothenburg. Arneborg carried out the study with co-researchers Anna Wåhlin, Göran Björk and Bengt Liljebladh.

One reason why West Antarctica is particularly sensitive is that the majority of the ice rests on areas that are below sea level. Warm sea water penetrates beneath the ice, causing increased melting from underneath.

“It is therefore probably a change in the ocean circulation in the Amundsen Sea that has caused this increased melting,” Arneborg said. “But there have been very few oceanographic measurements from the Amundsen Sea to confirm or contradict the results from the computer models. Nor has there been any winter data. Sea ice and icebergs have made it impossible to get there in the winter, and it isn’t easy to have instruments in place all year round.”

Until now, researchers have been referred to studies that use high-resolution computer models. But the Swedish researchers placed instruments in the Amundsen Sea in 2010, enabling them to measure the inward flow of warm sea water towards the glaciers

The observations show that the warm sea water flows towards the glaciers in a more or less constand current all year round, in contrast to the model results which suggested a strong seasonal cycle.

“This shows just how important observations are for investigating whether the models we use describe something that resembles reality,” Arneborg said. “Warm ocean currents have caused much more melting than any model has predicted, both in West Antarctica and around Greenland.

The researchers want more and longer time series of oceanographic observations in order to improve the models and achieve a better understanding.

“Only then will we be able to say something about how the ice masses of the Antarctic and Greenland will change in the future,” he concluded.
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Antarctia is growing as Greenland is shrinking. The two balance eachother out.

Really ????
Quoting ScottLincoln:

It probably isn't correct to say "scientists predict my county...under water in 100yrs" - but perhaps saying it is in the range of predictions. No specific value is a prediction because there are still differences in assumptions put into the models, and differences in the models themselves, although the observed changes have been near the top of the expected range.

I doubt you have paid much attention to the natural world, nor the scientists that spend their life paying that attention for you.
All true, Scott.

100-meter sea level rises sound--and certainly are--scary. But the important thing to remember is that a rise just 1/20th that large would displace hundreds of millions of humans, and throw civilization into complete chaos. And such a rise is entirely within the realm of possibility in not so many decades from now.
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Antarctia is growing as Greenland is shrinking. The two balance eachother out.
There are a hundred people on the planet who get by on a billion dollars a year, and there are a billion people on the planet who get by on a hundred dollars a year. The two balance each other out, so everyone is clearly comfortable.

Brilliant!
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Antarctia is growing as Greenland is shrinking. The two balance eachother out.

The sea ice almost equal each other but it's the ice on land that is shrinking. No balance in that.
Quoting Neapolitan:
All true, Scott.

100-meter sea level rises sound--and certainly are--scary. But the important thing to remember is that a rise just 1/20th that large would displace hundreds of millions of humans, and throw civilization into complete chaos. And such a rise is entirely within the realm of possibility in not so many decades from now.

I'll be fine.
Once I get my mine-field around my house done in time.......

The increased rate of melt in the North, and the recent thinking about the Southern melt being faster than previously thought, is certainly cause for more alarm.

It amazes me how blaze' people are being about this scenario.
Quoting AztecCe:
Can someone explain what all the talk is about this 100meter sea level rise? That'd be bad for me i'd be underwater!


And I'd have to move again. :/
Quoting Neapolitan:
There are a hundred people on the planet who get by on a billion dollars a year, and there are a billion people on the planet who get by on a hundred dollars a year. The two balance each other out, so everyone is clearly comfortable.

Brilliant!


Excellent.
heheheheheheh
Quoting Neapolitan:
There are a hundred people on the planet who get by on a billion dollars a year, and there are a billion people on the planet who get by on a hundred dollars a year. The two balance each other out, so everyone is clearly comfortable.

Brilliant!

What happened to you laying out the scientific facts to debunk the silly comment. Not in the mood or to early in the morning?
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


And I'd have to move again. :/

Most of the people on earth would have to move.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Most of the people on earth would have to move.

Who gets to build the Ark, this time ?
Quoting AussieStorm:

Most of the people on earth would have to move.


This is true.
well im glad the blog came so alive this morning, its good to see huh, my guess is in the years to come..sea level rise may just be more of a problem than the hurricanes we talk about each year in here..DOC probably will be mentioning it in time..its a subject that really does need to be discussed
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Antarctia is growing as Greenland is shrinking. The two balance eachother out.


not so... and remember, sometimes it has to warm up in order to snow. Extremely cold air holds little moisture so as half of Antarctica has increased melting, the other half is in a weather pattern that now that it is warmer, is bringing snow, thus "adding" to the ice thickness..

the sea level rise caused by Greenland and Antarctica have added some .4 inches since 1992...

see; post 545. goosegirl1 6:54 AM EST on December 07, 2012
Quoting LargoFl:
well im glad the blog came so alive this morning, its good to see huh, my guess is in the years to come..sea level rise may just be more of a problem than the hurricanes we talk about each year in here..DOC probably will be mentioning it in time..its a subject that really does need to be discussed

if the sea level rose, imagine the extra damage a hurricane would do.
Quoting pottery:

Who gets to build the Ark, this time ?

You. Now get building. LOL
Leave room for a cricket pitch.
Quoting pottery:

Who gets to build the Ark, this time ?


Good morning Lord Pottery.

This is God.

Are you forgetting the blue prints I sent you last year?
It's the one with everything measured in cubits.

One too many smoked Kingfish???

Tsk tsk.

:):)
Quoting LargoFl:
well im glad the blog came so alive this morning, its good to see huh, my guess is in the years to come..sea level rise may just be more of a problem than the hurricanes we talk about each year in here..DOC probably will be mentioning it in time..its a subject that really does need to be discussed

True.
But unfortunately the 'discussion' will be endless and probably futile.
Much like the current discussion on Climate Change.

I think we need to accept that it's gone too far, and cannot be corrected/reversed.
Quoting AussieStorm:

You. Now get building. LOL
Leave room for a cricket pitch.


I'm building that for the old man.

Been there, done that.

:)
Quoting clwstmchasr:


You mean dense fog can be deadly.


you must have missed the 'severe' debate a few days ago.
Quoting AussieStorm:

You. Now get building. LOL
Leave room for a cricket pitch.

No problem.
And I vote for theshepherd to build the pitch.
He built one once.....
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Antarctia is growing as Greenland is shrinking. The two balance eachother out.

actually, the sea ice is growing. there is a net loss on the continent.
Quoting theshepherd:


I'm building that for the old man.

Been there, done that.

:)

You know what a cricket pitch is?
Quoting AussieStorm:

if the sea level rose, imagine the extra damage a hurricane would do.
yes exactly and storm surge farther inland than it is now..glad im a senior citizen i wont be around to see all this happen..if it does happen
“The Arctic is screaming,” declared Mark Serreze, senior scientist at the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), when the extent of Arctic sea ice suddenly shrank in 2007. In that same year, Jay Zwally, a NASA climate scientist, warned that “the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer 2012, much faster than previous predictions.”

In its 2007 report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said satellite data showed that since 1978, “annual average Arctic sea ice extent has shrunk by 2.7 [2.1 to 3.3] percent per decade, with larger decreases in summer of 7.4 [5.0 to 9.8] percent per decade…” The agency predicted that both Arctic and Antarctic ice would continue to shrink and said that “in some projections, Arctic late-summer sea ice disappears almost entirely by the latter part of the 21st century.”
Quoting theshepherd:


Good morning Lord Pottery.

This is God.

Are you forgetting the blue prints I sent you last year?br>It's the one with everything measured in cubits.

One too many smoked Kingfish???

Tsk tsk.

:):)


Yeah I remember that.
It confused me plenty, until I realised that a cubit had nothing to do with ice cubes.......
For those who like to gamble:

A warm winter, a record warm spring, a record hot July and a warmer than average autumn combined to make it even more likely that 2012 will go down as the warmest year in the contiguous United States on record, the federal government reported Thursday.




Just how likely?

"For 2012 not to be record warm, December would have to be unprecedented," Jake Crouch, a scientist at the National Climatic Data Center, told NBC News. "December temperatures would need to be more than 1 degree F colder than the coldest December on record, which occurred in 1983."

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

Based on past numbers, he added, "the odds of that occurring are less than 0.3 percent


In other words, he said, "2012 has a greater than 99.7 percent chance of being record warm." That's up from Crouch's odds just last month of 90 percent


Link
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


e.g.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND... EXTREMELY DEADLY WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA... THESE APOCALYPTIC WINDS WILL BE THE WORST EVEN SEEN TO STRIKE ANYWHERE IN THE USA. EXPECT COMPLETE DEVASTATION ACROSS MIAMI, ORLANDO, TAMPA AND THE KEYS AS THE CATACLYSMIC HURRICANE CROSSES THE PENINSULA.
AS OF NOW TIME FOR PREPARATIONS ARE OVER. MUST HAVE OBEYED THE MANDATORY EVACUATIONS AS EVERYTHING IN THE HURRICANE'S PATH WILL BE LEVELED TO THE GROUND. THIS IS A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION...


OMG!!!.. I'm going to piss in my pants reading this (if it ever comes true or something like this)


Haha, that reminds me of that fake Ike advisory that got posted everywhere:

HURRICANE IKE FINAL ADVISORY NUMBER 666
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0200 AM SUN SEP 14 2008

A MASSIVE HURRICANE, NEY, A TITANIC BLACK MASS OF DESTRUCTION, BORN OF THE COLD, EVIL WOMB OF MOTHER NATURE, WILL RENDER MUCH OF COASTAL AND INLAND TEXAS A BARREN WASTELAND. IKE IS COMING.

SUCH IS THE POWER OF THIS STORM, IF INDEED, ANYTHING DISPENSING THIS AMOUNT OF HUMAN SUFFERING CAN BE CALLED A STORM.

THE STORM SURGE, ONCE PREDICTED AT 17 FEET, WILL NOW REACH UNHEARD OF HEIGHTS. IF WILL BE AS IF THE OCEAN ITSELF HAS VACATED IT'S VAST PRISON, SHAKING LOOSE HER CHAINS, AND LAYING ITSELF PRONE ATOP THE CITIES OF MAN. THE LAST VESTIGES OF IT'S BONDAGE SINKING ALL THAT LIES IN IT'S PATH.

ALL STRUCTURES WITHING A 100 MILE RADIUS WILL SUFFER DEVASTATING EFFECTS. WOOD WILL SPLINTER, CONCRETE WILL BECOME DUST. THE FOUNDATIONS WILL BE THE STARK REMNANTS OF HUMAN EXISTENCE IN THESE AREAS. TREES WILL BECOME UPROOTED AND CARRIED MILES BY WINDS THAT WILL BLAST THE VERY SKIN FROM ANYONE FOOLISH ENOUGH TO REMAIN OUTSIDE. BUT THEY WILL BE THE LUCKY ONES...THE FIRST TO DIE. FOR A MUCH GREATER MISERY AWAITS THOSE THAT SURVIVE.

AMIDST THIS MIRE OF CARNAGE, THE FEW SURVIVORS WILL WALLOW IN A SOUP OF DEATH AND DESPAIR, AS THEY FACE GRIM ODDS. FEW STRUCTURES WILL EXIST, AND FOOD AND WATER WILL BE MORE PRECIOUS THAN GOLD. AS CORPSES OF HUMANS AND ANIMALS ROT, DYSENTERY AND MALARIA WILL BEGIN THEIR MACABRE DANCE AMONG THOSE REMAINING AND MANY WILL BE FORCED TO CONSUME ONE ANOTHER TO LIVE ONE FINAL DAY.

ENTIRE GENERATIONS WILL PERISH, AND THE HURRICANE WILL CREEP INTO LEGEND. IT WILL BE A SIN TO EVEN CALL ITS NAME ALOUD, THE VERY EXISTENCE OF THIS EVENT BEING SPOKEN OF IN HUSHED TONES, AND REVERED BY THOSE WHO SEE IT AS JUDGMENT. IKE IS HERE. IKE IS HERE. IKE IS HERE. IKE IS HERE. IKE IS H
does anybody know anything about a new japanese earthquake and tsunami?

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57557719/japa n-earthquake-brings-small-tsunami-to-northeastern- disaster-zone/
Quoting Neapolitan:
There are a hundred people on the planet who get by on a billion dollars a year, and there are a billion people on the planet who get by on a hundred dollars a year. The two balance each other out, so everyone is clearly comfortable.

Brilliant!



Lets take all the billionaires money and give it the poor people. Once they spend it and it's gone, the people the billionaires and their mega compaines employeed will all be out of work and poverty becomes worse. You don't create wealth by dividing it. You create wealth by providing goods and services that other people want and need.
Just imagine when and IF..this supposed sea level rise reaches a critical stage and coastal populations would have to move inland..think of the wars that would break out..in europe etc and maybe even in the usa..oh no..your not moving onto MY land..i can just hear it now lol
Quoting plutorising:
does anybody know anything about a new japanese earthquake and tsunami?

How new ?
There was a 7.3 earlier today. A small tsunami (3 ft).
Quoting anglerfish:


Haha, that reminds me of that fake Ike advisory that got posted everywhere:

HURRICANE IKE FINAL ADVISORY NUMBER 666
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0200 AM SUN SEP 14 2008

A MASSIVE HURRICANE, NEY, A TITANIC BLACK MASS OF DESTRUCTION, BORN OF THE COLD, EVIL WOMB OF MOTHER NATURE, WILL RENDER MUCH OF COASTAL AND INLAND TEXAS A BARREN WASTELAND. IKE IS COMING.

SUCH IS THE POWER OF THIS STORM, IF INDEED, ANYTHING DISPENSING THIS AMOUNT OF HUMAN SUFFERING CAN BE CALLED A STORM.

THE STORM SURGE, ONCE PREDICTED AT 17 FEET, WILL NOW REACH UNHEARD OF HEIGHTS. IF WILL BE AS IF THE OCEAN ITSELF HAS VACATED IT'S VAST PRISON, SHAKING LOOSE HER CHAINS, AND LAYING ITSELF PRONE ATOP THE CITIES OF MAN. THE LAST VESTIGES OF IT'S BONDAGE SINKING ALL THAT LIES IN IT'S PATH.

ALL STRUCTURES WITHING A 100 MILE RADIUS WILL SUFFER DEVASTATING EFFECTS. WOOD WILL SPLINTER, CONCRETE WILL BECOME DUST. THE FOUNDATIONS WILL BE THE STARK REMNANTS OF HUMAN EXISTENCE IN THESE AREAS. TREES WILL BECOME UPROOTED AND CARRIED MILES BY WINDS THAT WILL BLAST THE VERY SKIN FROM ANYONE FOOLISH ENOUGH TO REMAIN OUTSIDE. BUT THEY WILL BE THE LUCKY ONES...THE FIRST TO DIE. FOR A MUCH GREATER MISERY AWAITS THOSE THAT SURVIVE.

AMIDST THIS MIRE OF CARNAGE, THE FEW SURVIVORS WILL WALLOW IN A SOUP OF DEATH AND DESPAIR, AS THEY FACE GRIM ODDS. FEW STRUCTURES WILL EXIST, AND FOOD AND WATER WILL BE MORE PRECIOUS THAN GOLD. AS CORPSES OF HUMANS AND ANIMALS ROT, DYSENTERY AND MALARIA WILL BEGIN THEIR MACABRE DANCE AMONG THOSE REMAINING AND MANY WILL BE FORCED TO CONSUME ONE ANOTHER TO LIVE ONE FINAL DAY.

ENTIRE GENERATIONS WILL PERISH, AND THE HURRICANE WILL CREEP INTO LEGEND. IT WILL BE A SIN TO EVEN CALL ITS NAME ALOUD, THE VERY EXISTENCE OF THIS EVENT BEING SPOKEN OF IN HUSHED TONES, AND REVERED BY THOSE WHO SEE IT AS JUDGMENT. IKE IS HERE. IKE IS HERE. IKE IS HERE. IKE IS HERE. IKE IS H


My goodnes, I thnk Lovecraft wrote this! Were any fishmen spotted??
Quoting plutorising:
does anybody know anything about a new japanese earthquake and tsunami?

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57557719/japa n-earthquake-brings-small-tsunami-to-northeastern- disaster-zone/


There was one overnight for us on the east coast.
Quoting AussieStorm:

You know what a cricket pitch is?


ROFL
:):):)))

http://www.broward.org/Parks/CentralBrowardRegion alPark/Pages/Default.aspx


Your's truly was the Project Superitendent on this puppy.

I almost made the grievous error of starting compacted backfill before our consultant blessed the hole.
A shot of Rum poured in the excavation and a shot of Rum poured in the consultant and I was good to go.
:)
Can't have that on a punch list, ya know.

It was a glorious two years spent in the Fishing Capital of the World. Damn proud to have been a part of it...even with my rather limited faculty.
:)
Quoting pottery:

True.
But unfortunately the 'discussion' will be endless and probably futile.
Much like the current discussion on Climate Change.

I think we need to accept that it's gone too far, and cannot be corrected/reversed.


Even if prevention fails, mitigation is always an option
Even though the first half of December have not been to my liking..(Highs in the 60's and 70's)the long range shows some hope for m my area.
I see Bopha has re-intensified into a powerful category 3 SS storm again and remains over 29C water.



and




GFS has been doing a terrible job on intensity, BTW.

We must not have much data except the satellite from over there eh?
Quoting theshepherd:


ROFL
:):):)))

http://www.broward.org/Parks/CentralBrowardRegion alPark/Pages/Default.aspx


Your's truly was the Project Superitendent on this puppy.

I almost made the grievous error of starting compacted backfill before our consultant blessed the hole.
A shot of Rum poured in the excavation and a shot of Rum poured in the consultant and I was good to go.
:)
Can't have that on a punch list, ya know.

It was a glorious two years spent in the Fishing Capital of the World. Damn proud to have been a part of it...even with my rather limited faculty.
:)

Had you not done that Blessing, there would have been Dire Consequences.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Lets take all the billionaires money and give it the poor people. Once they spend it and it's gone, the people the billionaires and their mega compaines employeed will all be out of work and poverty becomes worse. You don't create wealth by dividing it. You create wealth by providing goods and services that other people want and need.



So you're saying that if one person with one billion dollar income a year divided it among one million people, so every one of those people had a comfortable income by US standards (let alone the rest of the world!) that ALL of people would not be able to support themselves and a family?? And have money to spend to keep the economy ticking?
Quoting JustSouthofEquator:


Even if prevention fails, mitigation is always an option

Indeed.
But in reality, we really have no way out of the mess.

Millions of people would need to agree to to face hardship.
And that's not going to happen, IMO.
from the LA times........."Sea level rise isn't a political question, it's a scientific reality," said Gary Griggs, director of the Institute of Marine Sciences at UC Santa Cruz and a member of the committee that produced the report.

Globally, the study predicts up to 9 inches of sea level rise by 2030, 1 1/2 feet by 2050 and 4 1/2 feet by 2100.

The projections are largely in line with other recent scientific estimates but substantially higher than the 2007 figures by the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change because they factor in a greater contribution from melting ice.
(note) in the article the study says in california the sea will rise 5 feet by 2050
Quoting LargoFl:
from the LA times........."Sea level rise isn't a political question, it's a scientific reality," said Gary Griggs, director of the Institute of Marine Sciences at UC Santa Cruz and a member of the committee that produced the report.

Globally, the study predicts up to 9 inches of sea level rise by 2030, 1 1/2 feet by 2050 and 4 1/2 feet by 2100.

The projections are largely in line with other recent scientific estimates but substantially higher than the 2007 figures by the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change because they factor in a greater contribution from melting ice.
(note) in the article the study says in california the sea will rise 5 feet by 2050

It needs to be understood that the sea-level at California is not isolated to that location.
If the sea rises off California, it rises everywhere.
Are we going to be talking about politics and the economy again?.If so I'm ready to leave..
Quoting washingtonian115:
Are we going to be talk about politics and the economy again?.If so I'm ready to leave..

Well, since you brought it up......

.... it's pretty bad here.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Lets take all the billionaires money and give it the poor people. Once they spend it and it's gone, the people the billionaires and their mega compaines employeed will all be out of work and poverty becomes worse. You don't create wealth by dividing it. You create wealth by providing goods and services that other people want and need.


I thought that was already happening... :(

mornin' Doug!
Quoting pottery:

It needs to be understood that the sea-level at California is not isolated to that location.
If the sea rises off California, it rises everywhere.
I thought so too but i read later on, different sections of the worlds oceans would rise at different levels..and its not just from ice melting but as the oceans heat up..you get thermal expansion and we all know different parts of the world have different temps
taken from national geographic.......A recent Nature study suggested that Greenland's ice sheet will begin to melt if the temperature there rises by 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit). That is something many scientists think is likely to happen in another hundred years.

The complete melting of Greenland would raise sea levels by 7 meters (23 feet). But even a partial melting would cause a one-meter (three-foot) rise. Such a rise would have a devastating impact on low-lying island countries, such as the Indian Ocean's Maldives, which would be entirely submerged.

Densely populated areas like the Nile Delta and parts of Bangladesh would become uninhabitable, potentially driving hundreds of millions of people from their land.

A one-meter sea level rise would wreak particular havoc on the Gulf Coast and eastern seaboard of the United States.

"No one will be free from this," said Overpeck, whose maps show that every U.S. East Coast city from Boston to Miami would be swamped. A one-meter sea rise in New Orleans, Overpeck said, would mean "no more Mardi Gras."

Other scientists emphasize that such doomsday scenarios may be hundreds of years in the future.

"You can't say with any certainty that sea level rises are going to have a huge impact on society," Stouffer said. "Who knows what the planet will look like 500 years from now?"

Future Generations

Most climate scientists, however, agree that global warming is a threat that has gone unchecked for too long.

"Is society aware of the seriousness of climate warning? I don't think so," said Marianne Douglas, a geology professor at the University of Toronto. "If we were, we'd all be leading our lives differently. We'd see a society that embraced alternative sources of energy, with less dependency on fossil fuels."

Overpeck says passing on the problem of global warming to future generations is like ignoring a government budget deficit. "Except with the deficit, there are economic mechanisms that could be put in place to get out of the large deficit," he said. "With sea level rise, there's really no technological way to put the ice back on Greenland."
Quoting LargoFl:
I thought so too but i read later on, different sections of the worlds oceans would rise at different levels..and its not just from ice melting but as the oceans heat up..you get thermal expansion and we all know different parts of the world have different temps

Yes, that,s very true.
But the sea-surface variations will be very small (as they are already)
A 5' rise in level will happen over a very gradual time frame, and gravity will see to it that it is a pretty even distribution all over all the oceans..

Quoting goosegirl1:


There was one overnight for us on the east coast.
Any idea where?
Quoting pottery:

Well, since you brought it up......

.... it's pretty bad here.
So what are you trying to say?.
Quoting washingtonian115:
So what are you trying to say?.

Would you like to join the current discussion ?
This is nuts...
2012DEC07 125700 6.1 927.0/ +2.6 /117.4 6.1 6.4 6.6 2.7T/12hr OFF OFF 5.59 -73.47 EYE 16 IR 15.64 -116.17 COMBO
2012DEC07 133000 6.2 924.4/ +2.6 /119.8 6.2 6.4 6.5 2.7T/12hr OFF OFF -12.05 -74.96 EYE -99 IR 15.71 -116.19 COMBO
2012DEC07 135700 6.3 921.8/ +2.6 /122.2 6.3 6.2 6.2 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -33.63 -75.54 EYE -99 IR 15.66 -116.20 SPRL



Radius of maximum winds is 16 nautical miles, but in the last two frames the eye got covered up a bit so it didn't calculated it. I think...


Say max 1 minute sustained wind speed ranged from 117 to 122kts in the past hour or so, which if correct is category 4 again...
one thing we an take for sure, if even half of what the scientists predict..happens..a very different planet this will be for our future generations..well anyway, we see right here in the blog..half yes and half say no it wont happen and MY guess is..the worlds govt's are in the same boat..so in fact nothing will be done UNTIL the rise comes..and then it will be..OMG what are we going to do now?.....glad i wont be here
666. wxmod
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Lets take all the billionaires money and give it the poor people. Once they spend it and it's gone, the people the billionaires and their mega compaines employeed will all be out of work and poverty becomes worse. You don't create wealth by dividing it. You create wealth by providing goods and services that other people want and need.


When a billion is divided up among people who need it, they will spend it to keep the needed goods flowing and the economy will boom. If the billionair keeps the money, they will invest it and the money will be sucked up by CEOs and will be invested in equipment. Actually, the economy must be supported at both ends of the spectrum in order to work.
The economy like a violin string. It needs to be tied at both ends to make a note.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Lets take all the billionaires money and give it the poor people. Once they spend it and it's gone, the people the billionaires and their mega compaines employeed will all be out of work and poverty becomes worse. You don't create wealth by dividing it. You create wealth by providing goods and services that other people want and need.


You don't understand how much more money the top 1% makes compared to everyone else.

You could tax them at a 90% tax rate and they would still be the top 1%....and you could give everyone else a raise of close to $10,000 per year indefinitely.
headline dec 7,2112..........Entire coastlines of the united states are being evacuated due to rising sea levels,all citizens are ordered to evacuate inland
Quoting pottery:

Indeed.
But in reality, we really have no way out of the mess.

Millions of people would need to agree to to face hardship.
And that's not going to happen, IMO.


Change is not something that can be forced upon by other people, it is something that comes from within. It starts with realization and acceptance. Sadly a lot o times, this involves life threatening situation, one that stares directly in your face.
Quoting pottery:

Would you like to join the current discussion ?
No.
Quoting LargoFl:
one thing we an take for sure, if even half of what the scientists predict..happens..a very different planet this will be for our future generations..well anyway, we see right here in the blog..half yes and half say no it wont happen and MY guess is..the worlds govt's are in the same boat..so in fact nothing will be done UNTIL the rise comes..and then it will be..OMG what are we going to do now?.....glad i wont be here

But The Rise is HERE already.
Not 5 feet, but it's coming up as we speak.
The sea is getting bigger every day.
It's not going to jump 5' in 50 years to the day.
It's coming up all the time.........

You are here......
Quoting wxmod:


When a billion is divided up among people who need it, they will spend it to keep the needed goods flowing and the economy will boom. If the billionair keeps the money, they will invest it and the money will be sucked up by CEOs and will be invested in equipment. Actually, the economy must be supported at both ends of the spectrum in order to work.
The economy like a violin string. It needs to be tied at both ends to make a note.


The whole reason the economy tanks is because of the fiscal and social parasites in the top couple percents hoarding the excess of everyone else's labor.
Quoting RTSplayer:


You don't understand how much more money the top 1% makes compared to everyone else.

You could tax them at a 90% tax rate and they would still be the top 1%....and you could give everyone else a raise of close to $10,000 per year indefinitely.

What does this have to do with Climate Change and Sea-Level rise?
Quoting LargoFl:
headline dec 7,2112..........Entire coastlines of the united states are being evacuated due to rising sea levels,all citizens are ordered to evacuate inland


Just in: Republicans still don't believe it.
Risen what, a foot in the past century?
Quoting bappit:
Risen what, a foot in the past century?

Something like that, and accelerating.
677. yoboi
Quoting AztecCe:
Can someone explain what all the talk is about this 100meter sea level rise? That'd be bad for me i'd be underwater!




just a bunch of over hype to push a carbon tax....
NOAA issued a new report yesterday, Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States
National Climate Assessment



Published December 6, 2012

"Global sea level rise has been a persistent trend for decades. It is expected to continue beyond the end of this century, which will cause significant impacts in the United States. Scientists have very high confidence (greater than 90% chance) that global mean sea level will rise at least 8 inches (0.2 meter) and no more than 6.6 feet (2.0 meters) by 2100."
679. yoboi
Quoting RTSplayer:


Just in: Republicans still don't believe it.



also in, dems that are the majority of the senate can't pass a climate bill....looks like your blaming the wrong party...
Quoting washingtonian115:
So what are you trying to say?.


Same area as the big 2011 quake, but not nearly as strong

Link

I was referring to the 7.3 early this morning, EST off the coast of Japan.

Modified: After I re-read my comment, I think I made it sound as if the earthquake was off the East Coast of the US, but I was referring to the time it happened. I think I need Bielle to proofread for me sometimes :)))

AND in a brilliant stroke, I even responded to the wrong post! Someone come over hear and stop me! this was in reply to JustPlantIt
Quoting LargoFl:
headline dec 7,2112..........Entire coastlines of the united states are being evacuated due to rising sea levels,all citizens are ordered to evacuate inland
Good morning all. I think it will be before 2112. It will be more gradual, so anyone with homes in the mountains, better hang on to them. LOL I heard one of our county commissioners state on the radio today that Monroe County, Fl.is the canary in the coal mine. However, as a county leader he is talking about raising the level of buildings and roads. His head is still too close to that hole in the sand if he thinks building the land and buildings higher it going to be the solution. But it is the only solution we know. Can't put dykes on all the keys.

A study of the habitat for the endangered species that live in the keys showed that we have already lost land to sea level rise. They did it by comparing photos of the surrounding area, one from I believe the 1970's and one done recently. I can't remember the difference, but if anyone has been to the keys, you know it doesn't take much to swamp our low lying areas. I guess I will have to encourage my daughter to sell her home and move to the mountains, just so my granddaughter will have a place to live in the future.
Quoting goosegirl1:


Same area as the big 2011 quake, but not nearly as strong

Link

I was referring to the 7.3 early this morning, EST off the coast of Japan.
I tried to hear more information about that this morning especially on the blog.Thankfully it was nothing like the 2011 earthquake/tusnami.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
NOAA issued a new report yesterday, Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States
National Climate Assessment



Published December 6, 2012

"Global sea level rise has been a persistent trend for decades. It is expected to continue beyond the end of this century, which will cause significant impacts in the United States. Scientists have very high confidence (greater than 90% chance) that global mean sea level will rise at least 8 inches (0.2 meter) and no more than 6.6 feet (2.0 meters) by 2100."


So, put this in perspective.
Approx. 6' rise in 72 years.
Certainly a 5' rise in the lifetime of many bloggers here.

And we have not begun to talk about the change of ocean currents, marine thermal changes, pollution as a result of the inundation of thousands of square miles of densly populated land, loss of fish-stocks, loss of arable land, etc etc... the list is pretty long you know.
Quoting RTSplayer:


You don't understand how much more money the top 1% makes compared to everyone else.

You could tax them at a 90% tax rate and they would still be the top 1%....and you could give everyone else a raise of close to $10,000 per year indefinitely.


Actually, one of the main reasons that the world is so screwed up in so many ways these days is precisely because of the fact that the 1%ers have been mulcting so much from the other classes .... it results in, for instance, less safety, so you have the Horizon oil disaster in the gulf. It results in wives working, so you have all the social problems related to insufficient parenting. It results in people working three jobs and still no health care. It results in people being too busy to have any life BUT work ... so you have diminished participation in social groups and no time to keep up on events, and that results in just enough time to pick up the most solemnly ignorant of engineered opinions, making it possible to vote for enough stupid people such that, say the NC senate votes to officially disbeleive in global warming and rising seas. Civilization becomes increasingly stupid, ignorant, crass, vulgar and predatory.

Compare it all to the Leave-It-To-Beaver days of the fifties ... that relatively idyllic period, in which such a show was even possible, now seems more like science fiction ... One person made enough on a working class income to support a wife and kids, buy a nice solid house made with decent materials, and even some toys, and vacations, with trips to watch a ML baseball game regularly, in a regularly non-sleep-deprived state of mind.
Quoting goosegirl1:



So you're saying that if one person with one billion dollar income a year divided it among one million people, so every one of those people had a comfortable income by US standards (let alone the rest of the world!) that ALL of people would not be able to support themselves and a family?? And have money to spend to keep the economy ticking?


Why should I give away the money I worked hard for and give it to someone else. Yea, I give to charities and those less fortunate, but don't ask me to divide my salary just so a few others can live more comfortably. We aren't a communist country yet. Ya know what, I haven't been without a job since I was 14 years old and now I'm closing in on 40. The problem with this country is that the work ethic sucks. You don't have enough money, get a job. I'm tired of hearing there are no jobs out there. The problem is people don't want to do what is available. Thats why its called "work". I "worked" my way to get to where I'm at now. All people want now are handouts.
Quoting RTSplayer:


You don't understand how much more money the top 1% makes compared to everyone else.

You could tax them at a 90% tax rate and they would still be the top 1%....and you could give everyone else a raise of close to $10,000 per year indefinitely.





You don't understand human nature. The people who are driven to succeed are motivated by the opportunities to create and amass great wealth. Take it away and the incentive is gone. People who get stuff for nothing or very little effort, lose motivation to improve their lot.
Happy Friday.. here's a joke I wish I'd thought up 3 weeks ago...

Al Gore has been visiting turkey farms lately... something about gobble warming?!
Quoting yoboi:




just a bunch of over hype to push a carbon tax....
Again, it's not overhyped. It's real. The sea will continues to rise toward the 22nd century to the point there will be actions against it.
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Again, it's not overhyped. It's real. The sea will continues to rise toward the 22nd century to the point there will be actions against it.

Good luck with that !
Quoting yoboi:




just a bunch of over hype to push a carbon tax....

Said no informed person ever.
Quoting Chucktown:


Why should I give away the money I worked hard for and give it to someone else. Yea, I give to charities and those less fortunate, but don't ask me to divide my salary just so a few others can live more comfortably. We aren't a communist country yet. Ya know what, I haven't been without a job since I was 14 years old and now I'm closing in on 40. The problem with this country is that the work ethic sucks. You don't have enough money, get a job. I'm tired of hearing there are no jobs out there. The problem is people don't want to do what is available. Thats why its called "work". I "worked" my way to get to where I'm at now. All people want now are handouts.


I wasn't meaning specifically handouts, it was more of a philsophic answer. But since you brought it up, yes I do believe in compassion, helping the poor and infirm AND in providing jobs for those who are able to work. If earnings were split up- notice I said earnings in the original answer, not hand-outs- our econmy would boom becasue everyone would have money to spend on Amercian products. That is not communism.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Even though the first half of December have not been to my liking..(Highs in the 60's and 70's)the long range shows some hope for m my area.

1st half??? your 8 days ahead of everyone. we just finished the 1st week i.e 7 days.
693. yoboi
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Again, it's not overhyped. It's real. The sea will continues to rise toward the 22nd century to the point there will be actions against it.


100 meter sea rise??? really.....
As Kwgirl stated, the sea level rise will be gradual and insidious. The effects will be devastating, but there will be at least some time to adapt as low-lying areas gradually become uninhabitable. Populations in areas with no higher ground to move to (the Maldives, etc.) will have to migrate to other areas of the world.

One will not have to own property in the mountains to be safe though. For example, almost all of inland Central and North FL will be safe (the average elevation of the Orlando area is nearly 100 feet).
Quoting Chucktown:


Why should I give away the money I worked hard for and give it to someone else. Yea, I give to charities and those less fortunate, but don't ask me to divide my salary just so a few others can live more comfortably. We aren't a communist country yet. Ya know what, I haven't been without a job since I was 14 years old and now I'm closing in on 40. The problem with this country is that the work ethic sucks. You don't have enough money, get a job. I'm tired of hearing there are no jobs out there. The problem is people don't want to do what is available. Thats why its called "work". I "worked" my way to get to where I'm at now. All people want now are handouts.


So I guess when you become 67 (if global warming doesn't kill us), you will be turning down your social security check, eh?

Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:
As Kwgirl stated, the sea level rise will be gradual and insidious. The effects will be devastating, but there will be at least some time to adapt as low-lying areas gradually become uninhabitable. Populations in areas with no higher ground to move to (the Maldives, etc.) will have to migrate to other areas of the world.

One will not have to own property in the mountains to be safe though. For example, almost all of inland Central and North FL will be safe (the average elevation of the Orlando area is nearly 100 feet).
Inland Florida will not be safe from the stronger hurricanes, that will be the real threat.
Quoting pottery:

Good luck with that !
Maybe I shouldn't have said that part...
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:
As Kwgirl stated, the sea level rise will be gradual and insidious. The effects will be devastating, but there will be at least some time to adapt as low-lying areas gradually become uninhabitable. Populations in areas with no higher ground to move to (the Maldives, etc.) will have to migrate to other areas of the world.

One will not have to own property in the mountains to be safe though. For example, almost all of inland Central and North FL will be safe (the average elevation of the Orlando area is nearly 100 feet).

ONe problem with that.. all those everglade pythons are gonna be slithering for the high ground also.. and when the alligators run out...
Quoting washingtonian115:
I tried to hear more information about that this morning especially on the blog.Thankfully it was nothing like the 2011 earthquake/tusnami.


No, thankfully much smaller. I read a report of a 3 foot tsunami in some areas, but much smaller in others so it was a minor flood instead of a major disaster.
If he lived in New Jersey Chucktown wouldn't want federal aid after Sandy.
Quoting yoboi:


100 meter sea rise??? really.....
Did you NOT read this?

NOAA issued a new report yesterday, Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States
National Climate Assessment


Published December 6, 2012

"Global sea level rise has been a persistent trend for decades. It is expected to continue beyond the end of this century, which will cause significant impacts in the United States. Scientists have very high confidence (greater than 90% chance) that global mean sea level will rise at least 8 inches (0.2 meter) and no more than 6.6 feet (2.0 meters) by 2100."

That's enough of rise to flood Florida pretty badly.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Said no informed person ever.
It's still amazing that there's debate over it...
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Maybe I shouldn't have said that part...


I understood- you mean that humans will have to take action concerning the sea level rise. We will have to move inland, adapt, and learn to cope with a changing world.
Quoting AussieStorm:

1st half??? your 8 days ahead of everyone. we just finished the 1st week i.e 7 days.
Looks like another person will have read the post and fell on blind eyes...The longer range for the next 10 days(which will be the first half of December) will be mild for my area with some shots of cold air but for the most part the highs will be in the 50's and 60's.
Quoting ncstorm:


So I guess when you become 67 (if global warming doesn't kill us), you will be turning down your social security check, eh?


Social Security is not a handout, what do think I am paying for right now? On top of that, Social Security may not even be there when I'm 65.
706. yoboi
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Did you NOT read this?

NOAA issued a new report yesterday, Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States
National Climate Assessment


Published December 6, 2012

"Global sea level rise has been a persistent trend for decades. It is expected to continue beyond the end of this century, which will cause significant impacts in the United States. Scientists have very high confidence (greater than 90% chance) that global mean sea level will rise at least 8 inches (0.2 meter) and no more than 6.6 feet (2.0 meters) by 2100."

That's enough of rise to flood Florida pretty badly.


how is 8 inches going to be a doomsday flood event?
Quoting washingtonian115:
Looks like another person will have read the post and fell on blind eyes...The longer range for the next 10 days(which will be the first half of December) will be mild for my area with some shots of cold air but for the most part the highs will be in the 50's and 60's.
Well played..

I'm sure that's why capitalism died when marginal income tax rates were 90%+ for 50 years.

Quoting PensacolaDoug:





You don't understand human nature. The people who are driven to succeed are motivated by the opportunities to create and amass great wealth. Take it away and the incentive is gone. People who get stuff for nothing or very little effort, lose motivation to improve their lot.
Quoting yoboi:


how is 8 inches going to be a doomsday flood event?
get the kids away from the computer now!
Quoting bappit:
If he lived in New Jersey Chucktown wouldn't want federal aid after Sandy.


FEMA and Red Cross are not handouts. One is a governmental agency that I'm sure some of the federal taxes that come out of my paycheck every week I pay for. The other is a charitable organization that 100% relies on donations from people like me. And by the way, I grew up In Edison, NJ.
One thing that confuses me about sea level rise. My friend has a house on the GOM. His house was built on stilts about 8 ft off the ground and about 2ft above sea level (at the most). He parks his car under the house (you get the picture). Whenever there's a storm or very high tide, water reaches and goes under his house.
But under normal weather and tide conditions, the water level has remained basically unchanged since the 1960s.

Yes, there has been some coastal erosing that has changed the shape of shore line, but the actual sea level near his home has remained pretty much the same for over 40 years.




Quoting JNCali:
get the kids away from the computer now!

He's just trolling. Been pretty successful at it the last week or so.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Are we going to be talking about politics and the economy again?.If so I'm ready to leave..


rule # 11 Political comments are allowed, as long as they're in reference to science, science policy, or the blog topic.


so there for we can talk about has marh Political and GW has we like



but how evere i dont seee any Political or GW in dr m blog so some of you are being a little off topic

Quoting yoboi:


how is 8 inches going to be a doomsday flood event?
It's like filling the tea kettle all the way to the top and having it boil all over the stove... 
Quoting yoboi:


how is 8 inches going to be a doomsday flood event?
8 inches TO 6 feet. According to the maps, 3 or 4 feet is enough to flood Miami and Tampa.

(even 2 feet is enough to flood bunch of towns)
Quoting Chucktown:


Social Security is not a handout, what do think I am paying for right now? On top of that, Social Security may not even be there when I'm 65.
Why argue with them. They are the same people who complain there are no jobs out there. When in reality there are. They just don't want too move or chase the dream. If you don't have a job here is some quick advice try NORTH DAKOTA. Is it real nice and warm, no but they have lots of jobs.

In fact in one case Menards (like lowes) is flying people from Eau Claire WI. to Minot Nd for a week at a time just to work in their store. I believe they start you out at 15 or 16 dollars an hour plus benefits.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Looks like another person will have read the post and fell on blind eyes...The longer range for the next 10 days(which will be the first half of December) will be mild for my area with some shots of cold air but for the most part the highs will be in the 50's and 60's.

but you didn't say that..... you said....
Quoting washingtonian115:
Even though the first half of December have not been to my liking..(Highs in the 60's and 70's)the long range shows some hope for my area.
only mentioned long range after the 1st half.... not the long range outlook for my area for the 1st half of December will be mild for my area with some shots of cold air but for the most part the highs will be in the 50's and 60's.
Maybe you need to re-read what you said. Btw, is English your 1st of 2nd language. Like Taz, his 1st language isn't English.
Quoting Tazmanian:


rule # 11 Political comments are allowed, as long as they're in reference to science, science policy, or the blog topic.


so there for we can talk about has marh Political and GW has we like
Some post were not related to science at all Taz but I'll stop here an move on.
719. yoboi
Quoting bappit:

He's just trolling. Been pretty successful at it the last week or so.



how is asking about an 8 inch rise trolling???/??
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
One thing that confuses me about sea level rise. My friend has a house on the GOM. His house was built on stilts about 8 ft off the ground and about 2ft above sea level (at the most). He parks his car under the house (you get the picture). Whenever there's a storm or very high tide, water reaches and goes under his house.
But under normal weather and tide conditions, the water level has remained basically unchanged since the 1960s.

Yes, there has been some coastal erosing that has changed the shape of shore line, but the actual sea level near his home has remained pretty much the same for over 40 years.




If he is on the shoreline, it is kinda hard to see the slow creep of the high tide mark. The fact that the ocean is coming in under his home should be a worry to him. I bet when he built the house that didn't happen.
Taz, the blogs very own wannabe Police man. Good luck with that Taz.
722. yoboi
Quoting Bluestorm5:
8 inches TO 6 feet. According to the maps, 3 or 4 feet is enough to flood Miami and Tampa.



wow 8inches to 72 inches in rise...they sure got that nailed down...with that range shows they don't know what will happen...
Quoting yoboi:


how is 8 inches going to be a doomsday flood event?

Maybe if we put it in really simple terms you might understand....

You are 5 feet tall.
You are standing on the beach (that's where the ocean meets the sea)
A wave comes in, and you get your feet wet.
Another wave comes in ON TOP OF THE FIRST ONE and your knees get wet.
A third wave comes ON TOP OF THE OTHER TWO....

ETC ETC ETC.

You prefer to stay where you are, thinking "Wow, how cool is this?"

You get drowned.
Silly you.
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Antarctia is growing as Greenland is shrinking. The two balance eachother out.



Wrong.

First sea ice and continental ice are two different things.



Antarctica has a net loss of continental ice. The ice falling off the continent is probably the only thing replacing sea ice at the moment.

Greenland has a huge net loss of continental ice.

Even though Antarctica's sea is is slightly increasing in area currently, it is nowhere near enough to offset the loss of Arctic sea ice.

In fact, we just had an all-time record low maximum for Global Sea Ice Area, even as the sea ice thickness in the Arctic is also at or near record lows.

Notice this year's maximum was over a quarter million below last year's maximum, and last year was the previous record low maximum.



The change in Sea Ice Area is not offsetting one another, as the net sum is still decreasing significantly, and the net loss in the sum is accelerating.


The change in continental ice is not offsetting at all, because they are both decreasing.

Now, look at the acceleration in the Arctic sea ice area:



If you don't believe there is a trend, then look at the decadal averages on the "Death Spiral" graphs.




Now admittedly, they didn't have these easy to understand graphs a few years ago, and I was confused by all the misinformation too, but now that the trend in the past 6 years has grown so absurd, it's equally absurd to deny it.





This ought to be presented to congress, and then anybody who denies it should be impeached (or whatever they do with criminals in congress).
Quoting AussieStorm:

but you didn't say that..... you said.... only mentioned long range after the 1st half.... not the long range outlook for my area for the 1st half of December will be mild for my area with some shots of cold air but for the most part the highs will be in the 50's and 60's.
Maybe you need to re-read what you said. Btw, is English your 1st of 2nd language. Like Taz, his 1st language isn't English.
Yes "Even though the first half may not have been to my liking" I was also referring to the 7-10 day forecast that is being shown for where I live when I made that comment.BTW Aussie this isn't english 101.But since you care send up 10,000 in U.S dollars and I'll go to U.D.C and take english courses there ;).

You mad?.
because 8 inches is the minimum estimate. how about we talk about the 2 meter mark instead, since the trend seems to be that scientists (in an attempt to be 'conservative' in their estimates) underestimate the effects of AGW.

Quoting yoboi:



how is asking about an 8 inch rise trolling???/??
Quoting kwgirl:
If he is on the shoreline, it is kinda hard to see the slow creep of the high tide mark. The fact that the ocean is coming in under his home should be a worry to him. I bet when he built the house that didn't happen.

He probably thinks he's just as handsome as he was 20 years ago, too.
I have been living in Key West since 1960. In the late 70's we started having the sea come into the streets during exceptional high tides, about twice a year. I am seeing now, if there is a high tide and any kind of steady wind pushing the water will cause inundation of Duval Street(either end), First Street and North Roosevelt Blvd, the gutters on Flagler Avenue and even some low spots on United Street. Many an evening driving home I would spot a lare puddle on United Street when no rain had occurred. I realized it was salt water and turned around. The city finally had to post a sign.
Quoting yoboi:



wow 8inches to 72 inches in rise...they sure got that nailed down...with that range shows they don't know what will happen...
You're not reading my posts. Even 8 inches of rise will cause some problems. Starting at 12 to 24 inches, that's enough to flood many beach towns in Florida. At around 24 to 48 inches, that's enough to flood Miami or Tampa. At 72 inches, that's enough to flood 1/4 of state. All of this is by 2100. Even though the range is rather large, it's not very promising...
Quoting yoboi:



also in, dems that are the majority of the senate can't pass a climate bill....looks like your blaming the wrong party...



No I'm not.

You don't know how the government works, do you?

You can't pass a bill without a 60% majority in the senate and a 50% plus 1 majority in the house.

Dems have neither, so it's impossible to pass any bill that at least a handful of Republicans can't be convinced to vote for. Since Republicans can't be convinced to vote for anything benefiting the environment, or future generations, it's not going to happen.

Now if you had proposed increasing military spending, or tax cuts for the very wealthy, the Republicans would pass that immediately.
Kwgirl you better move to the mountains in California as sea level rise will wipe your home off the map.I would start saving up...
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yes "Even though the first half may not have been to my liking" I was also referring to the 7-10 day forecast that is being shown for where I live when I made that comment.BTW Aussie this isn't english 101.But since you care send up 10,000 in U.S dollars and I'll go to U.D.C and take english courses there ;).
US$10,000 is only AU$9532.25. Yes, My money is worth more than yours. Our economy is one of the best in the world.

Who am I sending it to. A charity?
734. yoboi
Quoting Bluestorm5:
You're not reading my posts. Even 8 inches of rise will cause some problems. Starting at 12 to 24 inches, that's enough to flood many beach towns in Florida. At around 24 to 48 inches, that's enough to flood Florida or Tampa. At 72 inches, that's enough to flood 1/4 of state. All of this is by 2100. Even though the range is rather large, it's not very promising...


thats why i was asking what 8 inches would do to fla...
Goodnight all.... Stay safe, Stay well, Stay Happy.

Typhoon Pablo toll tops 500, military says

MANILA, Philippines - At least 540 people have been confirmed dead in the Philippines following the deadliest typhoon to hit the country this year, rescue officials said Friday.

Regional military spokesman Lieutenant-Colonel Lyndon Paniza told AFP the region's armed forces had retrieved 506 bodies on the east coast of the southern island of Mindanao and around the southern town of New Bataan.

The civil defence office in Manila said 23 other people were killed elsewhere in Mindanao, along with 11 in the central Visayan islands.

The government agency said 383 people remained missing while the number of survivors who have sought refuge at government shelters has grown to more than 306,000.

Social Welfare Secretary Corazon Soliman said people who had lost their homes and livelihoods were flocking in droves to the crowded camps for food and shelter.

_________________________________________________ _____________________________________________

Typhoon Pablo may return to Philippines - PAGASA

MANILA, Philippines - Typhoon Pablo, which has killed at least 477 people and left hundreds others missing, may return to the Philippines, state weather bureau PAGASA warned Thursday.

A high-pressure area is preventing the typhoon from continuing on a northwest track in the West Philippine Sea, PAGASA said.

This may result in Pablo making a U-turn and swinging back into the Philippine area of responsibility, although such a scenario is slim, it added.

The typhoon also won't make landfall again in the country if it does head northeastward.

It was spotted 410 km west of Coron, Palawan as of 10 p.m. Thursday.

Pablo has maintained its strength as it continues to move away from the country, PAGASA said.

The typhoon is now packing maximum sustained winds of 120 kilometers per hour near the center and gustiness of up to 150 kph.

It is moving north-northwest slowly and could be 600 km west of Metro Manila by Friday night.

All public storm warning signals have been lowered.

However, PAGASA warned that fishing boats and other sea vessels are still advised not to venture out into the seaboards of northern and Central Luzon and the eastern seaboard of Southern Luzon.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:





You don't understand human nature. The people who are driven to succeed are motivated by the opportunities to create and amass great wealth. Take it away and the incentive is gone. People who get stuff for nothing or very little effort, lose motivation to improve their lot.
I agree with you, Doug. The 1950s--when the top personal income tax rate was 91%--were a dismal time in America, with no one motivated to do anything. Sure, it was a prosperous decade for most Americans, as we had the highest standard of living in the world, because American workers made the highest wages in the world, and enjoyed the best benefits and the longest vacations in the world. And, yes, most of the world's high tech R&D was in America, and we made the best cars and everything else in the world. And, to be sure, America's middle class and public school system and military and manufacturing base were the envy of the world. And, okay, we built the best highway system in the world at that time, and unemployment was at record low levels then. But aside from all that, the nation's wealthiest were clearly de-incentivized, for no one was able to create and amass great wealth. I mean, aside from all those who were.
Quoting AussieStorm:
US$10,000 is only AU$9532.25. Yes, My money is worth more than yours. Our economy is one of the best in the world.

Who am I sending it to. A charity?


I wish University of DC was a charity! I would be sending my daughter there when she is ready. Maybe one of those billionaires would help Washi and I ...
Quoting washingtonian115:
Kwgirl you better move to the mountains in California as sea level rise will wipe your home off the map.I would start saving up...
Nah, I'll be dead by then, hopefully. What will wipe my home away during my lifetime is a big Hurricane.
Argentina is having some really hot weather. Extreme flooding as well. There floods another subway system...more here.
Quoting kwgirl:
I have been living in Key West since 1960. In the late 70's we started having the sea come into the streets during exceptional high tides, about twice a year. I am seeing now, if there is a high tide and any kind of steady wind pushing the water will cause inundation of Duval Street(either end), First Street and North Roosevelt Blvd, the gutters on Flagler Avenue and even some low spots on United Street. Many an evening driving home I would spot a lare puddle on United Street when no rain had occurred. I realized it was salt water and turned around. The city finally had to post a sign.

I have been going to the same off-shore islands here for 50+ years.
The jetties and piers on those islands are constantly being RAISED every time they are in need of repair/recondition.
Recently (within the last 3-5 years), there is a scramble to raise them all.

The sea level is rising. People who live along the coast know that.
Those that were not raised are impossible to use during spring tides.
Quoting yoboi:


thats why i was asking what 8 inches would do to fla...


Here, read this... Link
Quoting goosegirl1:


Here, read this... Link

He wont read it.
And if he does, he wont believe it.
Quoting pottery:

I have been going to the same off-shore islands here for 50+ years.
The jetties and piers on those islands are constantly being RAISED every time they are in need of repair/recondition.
Recently (within the last 3-5 years), there is a scramble to raise them all.

The sea level is rising. People who live along the coast know that.
Those that were not raised are impossible to use during spring tides.
50+ years...I may have to lump you in with the Grothar Entity..:)
Quoting pcola57:
Flood/sea level rise map..Google format..adjustable sea levels..


At 2 meters...

In the case of the Mediterranean and the Gulf of Mexico, it will likely be worse than that because the weight of the extra water will push down on the continental plates on which those bodies rest, causing even more water to spill into the basins.

Although the inland seas in North Africa and Israel are unlikely to be re-filled like they are portrayed on that map, unless the climate changes incredibly drastically to cause large rains in those locations.


As for Asia, they may be in a much worse case than anywhere else.

A chunk of Iraq is destroyed at 2 meters, and an entire region is submerged at 7 meters.

In the far east, Vietnam and China lose entire metropolis and megalopolis scale cities at just 2 meters. I'd expect that initially they may try NOLA style levees, but by then the rate of sea level rise will be so high those levees won't be useful for more than a few generations before it becomes impossible to save the land at all.

Shanghai, Hong Kong, Hanoi, Basrah.

Top four most screwed cities come 2100.
Quoting RTSplayer:

(or whatever they do with criminals in congress).


Look the other way? Appoint them to chair committees? Give them cushy lobbying jobs when they finally leave? ;)
Quoting hydrus:
50+ years...I may have to lump you in with the Grothar Entity..:)

LOL, I'm 64.....

They say that Age brings Wisdom.
I'm still waiting.........
Something they forget to mention is the increase erosion and wave action as the seas rise.

The real results a a bit worse than just adding 2 meters of water to the existing oceanic and coastal topography, because you have to take the sum of all the extra erosion caused by the sea level rise between now and then.
Quoting KarenRei:


Look the other way? Appoint them to chair committees? Give them cushy lobbying jobs when they finally leave? ;)

NIce !
:):))
Roughly 3,000 gallons (11,355 liters) of oil have spilled into the ocean from a cargo ship accident earlier this week in the northern Bahamas, government officials said Thursday. At a news conference, Environment Minister Kenred Dorsett said crews were able to recover a portion of the oily water off Grand Bahama island but he did not provide any specifics of how much. He said chemical dispersants that break up oil were not used out of concern for its effect on marine life. Dorsett said the worst of the oily mess would be dispersed naturally through wave action and tides. Bahamian authorities have described the accident as a "tier one spill," the smallest kind. Still, the islands' government expects to notify the United States about the spill off Grand Bahama, the northernmost island in the archipelago off the eastern coast of Florida. Grand Bahama, about 55 miles from the mainland, is the Bahamas' closest island to Florida.

After a Tuesday helicopter flight over the damaged vessel, government officials said they saw an oily sheen coming from the damaged container ship and it was apparently heading toward the Florida Straits. On a second observation flight Wednesday, Bahamian environmental official Dwyane Curtis said they did not see evidence of "any residual fuel in the area." The damaged ship has been towed back into harbor by a local salvage company, whose owner has criticized the government for not doing a better job of cleaning up the spill in the hours after the accident became known. The islands are investigating caused the hull breach in the Panamanian-flagged cargo ship Eugenia. The vessel is owned by Swiss-based Mediterranean Shipping Co. The Bahamas National Trust, manager of the islands’ national parks, said it is monitoring the situation.
750. yoboi
Quoting JNCali:
get the kids away from the computer now!



what great class you are showing today....
Quoting AussieStorm:
US$10,000 is only AU$9532.25. Yes, My money is worth more than yours. Our economy is one of the best in the world.

Who am I sending it to. A charity?


hmm, cut out the middleman Aussie, need my address?? :)
Quoting RTSplayer:
Something they forget to mention is the increase erosion and wave action as the seas rise.

The real results a a bit worse than just adding 2 meters of water to the existing oceanic and coastal topography, because you have to take the sum of all the extra erosion caused by the sea level rise between now and then.
...and add the atmospheric effects of all those additional thousands of square miles of warm surface water..
Quoting RTSplayer:
Something they forget to mention is the increase erosion and wave action as the seas rise.

The real results a a bit worse than just adding 2 meters of water to the existing oceanic and coastal topography, because you have to take the sum of all the extra erosion caused by the sea level rise between now and then.

You have to add the effects of all the poisonous soils in densly farmed coastal areas too.
Pesticides, weedicides, fungicides, and so on.

Should be fun.
Quoting pottery:

LOL, I'm 64.....

They say that Age brings Wisdom.
I'm still waiting.........
Well, if everything is still here on 12/21/12, I will probably make that number..:)
Quoting hydrus:
50+ years...I may have to lump you in with the Grothar Entity..:)


Speaking of Grothar, I haven't seen much of him around lately. Praying to the weather Gods to make more blobs to talk about :)
Quoting RTSplayer:


At 2 meters...

In the case of the Mediterranean and the Gulf of Mexico, it will likely be worse than that because the weight of the extra water will push down on the continental plates on which those bodies rest, causing even more water to spill into the basins.

Although the inland seas in North Africa and Israel are unlikely to be re-filled like they are portrayed on that map, unless the climate changes incredibly drastically to cause large rains in those locations.


As for Asia, they may be in a much worse case than anywhere else.

A chunk of Iraq is destroyed at 2 meters, and an entire region is submerged at 7 meters.

In the far east, Vietnam and China lose entire metropolis and megalopolis scale cities at just 2 meters. I'd expect that initially they may try NOLA style levees, but by then the rate of sea level rise will be so high those levees won't be useful for more than a few generations before it becomes impossible to save the land at all.

Shanghai, Hong Kong, Hanoi, Basrah.

Top four most screwed cities come 2100.


Agreed..
Those levee's are a gonner..
By the way that's the most current and really the only link I have to share on the sea level topic..
One would think there would be more..but sadly no..
At least I couldn't find any in that understandable format..
757. yoboi
Quoting pottery:

He wont read it.
And if he does, he wont believe it.


when did you become a mind reader???
758. ARiot
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function."
Albert A. Bartlett, physicist


The quote above is very significant when discussing AGW in the context of temperature and sea level and the potential outcome for humans.

Once the exponential function is understood, people can realize that 4C or 8" average sea level rise has exceptionally far-reaching implications for everyone on earth.

As Bartlett often used this funtion in the context of population growth, fueled almost entirely by progress in basic sanitation, basic medical science and growth of "easy" energy, it should be part of every discussion on rapid (on a geologic scale) AGW.
Quoting pottery:

LOL, I'm 64.....

They say that Age brings Wisdom.
I'm still waiting.........


sounds like a song title...

probably because you've shown an incredible ability to ignore/misrepresent the science of AGW. it's not mind reading, it's pattern recognition.

Quoting yoboi:


when did you become a mind reader???
Quoting yoboi:


when did you become a mind reader???

I was not reading your mind, you know.
I was reading your comments.
Tsunami warning lifted after strong quake strikes Japan. Video & such at that link.
Quoting indianrivguy:


sounds like a song title...


Yep.
And people still need me, people still feed me.....

:):))
764. yoboi
Quoting goosegirl1:


Here, read this... Link



they sent a letter to the president, let's see what he will do about it...thanks for sharing the link...
Quoting Bluestorm5:
You're not reading my posts. Even 8 inches of rise will cause some problems. Starting at 12 to 24 inches, that's enough to flood many beach towns in Florida. At around 24 to 48 inches, that's enough to flood Miami or Tampa. At 72 inches, that's enough to flood 1/4 of state. All of this is by 2100. Even though the range is rather large, it's not very promising...
yes im afraid your right, just look at miami beach, built right up to the waters edge and that could probably go for most of florida's beach communities..and no where do i see any change coming anytime soon..add to the sea rise..high tide and a sea breeze and that water height goes up..gee,not good at all
Quoting yoboi:



they sent a letter to the president, let's see what he will do about it...thanks for sharing the link...

But, what do you think about it?
Quoting pottery:

You have to add the effects of all the poisonous soils in densly farmed coastal areas too.
Pesticides, weedicides, fungicides, and so on.

Should be fun.


I deal with that every day.. friggen "legend" pollution.. The most diverse estuary in all of North America is collapsing because of nutrient laden storm water. We can't send Okeechobee Lake water south into the Florida Everglades because it is too polluted.. from legend nutrients in the sediments.. All of Florida has been impacted by nutrient and pesticide overload.
Quoting LargoFl:
yes im afraid your right, just look at miami beach, built right up to the waters edge and that could probably go for most of florida's beach communities..and no where do i see any change coming anytime soon..add to the sea rise..high tide and a sea breeze and that water height goes up..gee,not good at all
I hear houses are cheap in New Orleans.. oh wait..
769. yoboi
Quoting evilpenguinshan:
probably because you've shown an incredible ability to ignore/misrepresent the science of AGW. it's not mind reading, it's pattern recognition.




depends who funds the studies....
Quoting indianrivguy:


I deal with that every day.. friggen "legend" pollution.. The most diverse estuary in all of North America is collapsing because of nutrient laden storm water. We can't send Okeechobee Lake water south into the Florida Everglades because it is too polluted.. from legend nutrients in the sediments.. All of Florida has been impacted by nutrient and pesticide overload.

It must be driving you (and others who understand) crazy !

We reap what we sow, and it's a Bitter Harvest.
771. yoboi
Quoting pottery:

But, what do you think about it?



i think it's in his hands now, let's see what he will do about it...
Quoting yoboi:



depends who funds the studies....

Absolutely True.
But at the end of the day, some people can see through the haze and muck, and recognise the Physical Evidence for what it is.

Some people can't, of course.
Or won't.
Quoting indianrivguy:


I deal with that every day.. friggen "legend" pollution.. The most diverse estuary in all of North America is collapsing because of nutrient laden storm water. We can't send Okeechobee Lake water south into the Florida Everglades because it is too polluted.. from legend nutrients in the sediments.. All of Florida has been impacted by nutrient and pesticide overload.
It has been like that for a long time...Here is an excerpt from the New York Times back in 1989..I must mention that the Everglades has had pollution issues since the 1920,s..Pollution Poses Growing Threat To Everglades
By JEFFREY SCHMALZ, Special to The New York Times
Published: September 17, 1989

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The National Audubon Society estimates that the number of long-legged wading birds, like wood storks and egrets, that nest in the waters of the Everglades has declined 90 percent since the 1920's.

This summer, for the first time, fish in most parts of the Everglades have been declared unsafe for eating, because of mercury contamination. Alligator hunting, in season this month in Florida, has been banned in the Everglades because of high mercury levels in gator meat as well. Unwanted Plant Life

But of even more concern to officials is the runoff from dairy, sugar-cane and other farms. Environmentalists say the runoff, rich in nutrients, has fed an explosion in the growth of plant varieties that clog open waterways, robbing them of oxygen and crowding out animal life. The plants, especially cattails, are spreading at the rate of four acres a day.Pollution Poses Growing Threat To Everglades
By JEFFREY SCHMALZ, Special to The New York Times
Published: September 17, 1989

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Print
Single-Page

The Everglades, 10,000 square miles of delicate marshland that is home to some of the country's rarest birds and other animals, are caught in a worsening environmental crisis, with thousands of acres already unable to sustain wildlife.

The National Audubon Society estimates that the number of long-legged wading birds, like wood storks and egrets, that nest in the waters of the Everglades has declined 90 percent since the 1920's.

This summer, for the first time, fish in most parts of the Everglades have been declared unsafe for eating, because of mercury contamination. Alligator hunting, in season this month in Florida, has been banned in the Everglades because of high mercury levels in gator meat as well. Unwanted Plant Life

But of even more concern to officials is the runoff from dairy, sugar-cane and other farms. Environmentalists say the runoff, rich in nutrients, has fed an explosion in the growth of plant varieties that clog open waterways, robbing them of oxygen and crowding out animal life. The plants, especially cattails, are spreading at the rate of four acres a day.
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Meanwhile, 110,000 acres of the Everglades was swept this summer by fires that went unchecked because of drought.

''Of all the national parks, it is the one closest to extinction,'' said George T. Frampton, the president of the Wilderness Society. ''We ditched, diked and drained Florida thinking that was progress before we realized we totally changed the whole balance.'' What Should Be Done? Officials have responded with a flurry of proposals. The United States Attorney in Miami, Dexter Lehtinen, has sued the state to compel it to enforce its own water-discharge standards. The Army Corps of Engineers has begun studies on how to control the flow of water so that the dry season stays dry and the wet season wet - an important cycle affecting birds' nesting habits that was disrupted by man-made levees.

Congress is considering a bill that would bring 100,000 more acres under the protection of the Everglades National Park, which encompasses about a fifth of all the Everglades. State water managers have proposed seizing 40,000 acres of private- and state-owned wetlands that would be used as a natural purification system to filter out nutrients before they reach sensitive areas.

But the proposals are bogged down in bitter fighting between environmentalists, who charge that state water managers favor the agriculture industry, and the industry itself, which argues that it is being made a scapegoat for the state's failure to manage growth and that, in any case, the pollution is not so bad as everyone says it is.

State water managers say that the Everglades system may simply not have enough water to meet the demands placed on it and that South Florida is going to have to face up to painful choices: supplying water to the 4.5 million residents of the area, meeting the needs of agriculture or supporting the environment.

This week, for the first time in a decade, the state began pumping water that it knows is laden with nutrients into Lake Okeechobee, the main source of the Everglades' water. Officials said they had to do this so they could draw on the lake, which has been running low, to supply the drought-stricken Miami area, 50 miles to the south.

''We're living on the edge with this system in terms of meeting the water needs for 4.5 million people,'' said John R. Wodraska, executive director of the South Florida Water Management District. ''If man is going to live in South Florida and have enough water to drink, we're going to have to do some things to compromise the environment.
well naturally you shouldn't believe oil industry funded studies showing that AGW is non-existent...it's called a profit motive. and don't even give me that 'scientists just want research grants' garbage, that money is chump change compared to oil industry profits.

Quoting yoboi:



depends who funds the studies....


plus, your question was answered, but somehow I don't think it's going to make a difference...

"Sea level has already risen about 8 inches along Florida’s coast and is having profound effects...
“We just spent $10 million on new wells because salt water seeped into six of our wells that were close to the coast,” said Hallandale Beach City Commissioner Keith London, who also signed the letter. “We’re skimming water off of the top of another two wells because salt water is at the bottom.”
“The canal system was built on a decline, using about a foot of gravity,” said Berry. “As sea level has risen, more than half of that foot gradient is now gone. During some high tides the canal gates have to be closed to prevent sea water from flowing into the canals.”


so wait, are you agreeing that 8" is bad, or that 8 more inches may actually be catastrophic for many areas of FL? or did you just post that 'thanks' to make it sound like you're open to the information? or are you going to take issue with whoever funded that particular piece of information?

Quoting yoboi:



they sent a letter to the president, let's see what he will do about it...thanks for sharing the link...
775. yoboi
Quoting pottery:

Absolutely True.
But at the end of the day, some people can see through the haze and muck, and recognise the Physical Evidence for what it is.

Some people can't, of course.
Or won't.



you don't think there are hidden agenda on both sides of the debate???
Quoting yoboi:


how is 8 inches going to be a doomsday flood event?



By adding to the water height you add to the location where waves crash, in some cases you may actually increase the maximum size of the waves in the first place, allowing them to crash even farther inland.

the wave action, first a few millimeters, then a centimeter, then 20cm/8 inches (whatever), adds up to erosion and salt water intrusion in rivers and marshes, which means barrier islands will get wiped out faster and faster, and our coastal marshes will be inundated and poisoned more and more.

So, 8 inches, what does it matter?

In Louisiana, 12 inches of water would increase the penetration of storm surges by an average of about 1 mile, which is about 0.4% of the width and height of the state.


So it's not just the average added to topography.

It's what the average does to erosion and salt water intrustion.

It's also what the average does to the dynamics o storm surges.

It's also what the average does to isostatic forces causing continents and ocean plates to sink or rise on the Mantle. Which this doesn't happen quickly, but it does happen fast enough that NASA and USGS can track it already in Greenland...

Greenland and Antarctica will rise by hundreds of feet eventually, by the time complete or near-complete melt-downs happen. Everything else will sink by several dozen feet eventually, because they will have more water on them, but the water will be spread out far more thinly than the ice was on the ice caps so the effect won't be as much as the reverse effect in Greenland or Antarctica.

In general, based on the density of rock vs water, if the Gulf of Mexico saw a 12 inch initial water rise, it and the coastlines around it would then sink by a further 3 inches, causing the net coastal water rise to be around 15 inches. Or if it saw an 8 inch initial water rise, it would then sink by about 2 inches, giving a net increase of 10 inches.


Scientists and recreational scuba divers a few hundred years from now will be studying the coral reefs and other aquatic live growing on the sunken man-made structures in NOLA, Tampa Bay, Miami, the keys, and Galveston.
..new orleans with a 4 foot sea rise....gone
Quoting yoboi:



i think it's in his hands now, let's see what he will do about it...

Unfortunately, it is NOT in his hands alone.
Your President is restrained by many things, and among the most important are Political Opposition and Popular Opinion. (You may read Votes, here).

Quoting washingtonian115:
Looks like another person will have read the post and fell on blind eyes...The longer range for the next 10 days(which will be the first half of December) will be mild for my area with some shots of cold air but for the most part the highs will be in the 50's and 60's.


Opps...I meant the 2ed half of the month(especially toward the Winter Solstice) Link.:)
...................Houston with a 4 foot sea rise
781. yoboi
Quoting evilpenguinshan:
well naturally you shouldn't believe oil industry funded studies showing that AGW is non-existent...it's called a profit motive. and don't even give me that 'scientists just want research grants' garbage, that money is chump change compared to oil industry profits.



plus, your question was answered, but somehow I don't think it's going to make a difference...

"Sea level has already risen about 8 inches along Florida’s coast and is having profound effects...
“We just spent $10 million on new wells because salt water seeped into six of our wells that were close to the coast,” said Hallandale Beach City Commissioner Keith London, who also signed the letter. “We’re skimming water off of the top of another two wells because salt water is at the bottom.”
“The canal system was built on a decline, using about a foot of gravity,” said Berry. “As sea level has risen, more than half of that foot gradient is now gone. During some high tides the canal gates have to be closed to prevent sea water from flowing into the canals.”


so wait, are you agreeing that 8" is bad, or that 8 more inches may actually be catastrophic for many areas of FL? or did you just post that 'thanks' to make it sound like you're open to the information? or are you going to take issue with whoever funded that particular piece of information?




they provided a link showing that it has already risen i belive the data....and if we are in such a dire situation the president can write an executive order....let's see what he will do...
Quoting yoboi:



you don't think there are hidden agenda on both sides of the debate???

Ther're not very well hidden, actually.
But some folks still get confused.......
783. yoboi
Quoting pottery:

Unfortunately, it is NOT in his hands alone.
Your President is restrained by many things, and among the most important are Political Opposition and Popular Opinion. (You may read Votes, here).




he has the authority to write an executive order to protect the american citizens....let's see how dire he thinks this is....they sent him the letter so it'ss on him...
With eyes wide open some folks are still not observant.

Quoting pottery:

Ther're not very well hidden, actually.
But some folks still get confused.......

Quoting yoboi:



they provided a link showing that it has already risen i belive the data....and if we are in such a dire situation the president can write an executive order....let's see what he will do...

Or he can wave a magic wand.
Probably be just as effective, you know.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
no. there is a hidden agenda on ONE side, and it's not hidden - it's profit. oil companies stock is valued by the amount of reserves they have, thus is they cant burn it all, they 'lose' TONS of money. that's the agenda.
if you think climatology is some giant conspiracy, go back to the fever swamps...read some 9/11 truthers or moon-landing deniers, but stay off the science and weather boards.

Quoting yoboi:



you don't think there are hidden agenda on both sides of the debate???
788. yoboi
Quoting pottery:

Ther're not very well hidden, actually.
But some folks still get confused.......



your right...one side wants to continue to use fossil fuels the other side wants to tax the poor and middle class with a carbon tax.....
you should link to that interactive new york times page where those images came from - it's quite good.

Quoting LargoFl:
...................Houston with a 4 foot sea rise
Quoting WunderAlertBot:
JeffMasters has created a new entry.


OH NO!!!!

this one was so much fun, man !
I guess just pick your coastal city and we can guess what a 4 foot rise in sea levels will do..miami,new orleans,Tampa,etc all gone or shrunken in size and accessablity...I know MY county would be unable to get to Tampa..the causeways would be under water etc...well those alive in the future will have to deal with it..huge taxes to pay for higher sea walls and bridges etc..not a pretty outlook for sure
Quoting LargoFl:
...................Houston with a 4 foot sea rise


I would have beach front property then. I-10 would be my boat launch. ... I was wanting to get another boat. .... Hey, Pottery! How are you coming along on that ark?
Quoting yoboi:



they provided a link showing that it has already risen i belive the data....and if we are in such a dire situation the president can write an executive order....let's see what he will do...


The president can write an Executive Order, as long as it does not involve any new spending. Congress has sole possession of the purse.
Bopha is probably in an eye-wall replacement cycle again.

It had a mini-peak about 6 hours ago with very warm core temperatures and a small eye again, but now its getting some cover over the eye again.

2012DEC07 113000 6.0 929.7/ +2.7 /115.0 6.0 6.4 6.8 2.2T/6hr OFF OFF 11.40 -73.78 EYE 16 IR 15.42 -116.05 COMBO
2012DEC07 123000 6.0 929.6/ +2.6 /115.0 6.0 6.4 6.6 2.7T/12hr OFF OFF 4.49 -72.86 EYE 16 IR 15.50 -116.16 COMBO
2012DEC07 125700 6.1 927.0/ +2.6 /117.4 6.1 6.4 6.6 2.7T/12hr OFF OFF 5.59 -73.47 EYE 16 IR 15.64 -116.17 COMBO
2012DEC07 133000 6.2 924.4/ +2.6 /119.8 6.2 6.4 6.5 2.7T/12hr OFF OFF -12.05 -74.96 EYE -99 IR 15.71 -116.19 COMBO
2012DEC07 135700 6.3 921.8/ +2.6 /122.2 6.3 6.2 6.2 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -33.63 -75.54 EYE -99 IR 15.66 -116.20 SPRL
2012DEC07 143000 6.3 921.8/ +2.5 /122.2 6.3 6.3 6.3 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -30.16 -75.54 EYE/P -99 IR 15.81 -116.32 SPRL
2012DEC07 145700 6.3 921.7/ +2.5 /122.2 6.3 6.2 6.2 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -33.65 -75.35 EYE/P -99 IR 15.86 -116.34 SPRL
2012DEC07 153000 6.3 921.7/ +2.5 /122.2 6.1 5.2 5.2 0.7T/6hr ON OFF -60.44 -74.91 EMBC N/A 15.91 -116.36 SPRL
2012DEC07 155700 6.3 921.7/ +2.5 /122.2 5.9 5.2 5.2 0.7T/6hr ON OFF -63.66 -75.63 EMBC N/A 15.96 -116.37 SPRL
2012DEC07 163000 6.3 921.7/ +2.5 /122.2 5.8 5.2 4.7 0.7T/6hr ON FLG -74.91 -74.47 UNIFRM N/A 16.01 -116.81 SPRL
2012DEC07 165700 6.3 921.6/ +2.4 /122.2 5.6 5.0 4.6 1.2T/12hr ON FLG -72.83 -72.85 UNIFRM N/A 16.35 -116.72 SPRL


Last time it was calculated, the radius of maximum winds was still 16NM.
Quoting Chucktown:


Why should I give away the money I worked hard for and give it to someone else. Yea, I give to charities and those less fortunate, but don't ask me to divide my salary just so a few others can live more comfortably. We aren't a communist country yet. Ya know what, I haven't been without a job since I was 14 years old and now I'm closing in on 40. The problem with this country is that the work ethic sucks. You don't have enough money, get a job. I'm tired of hearing there are no jobs out there. The problem is people don't want to do what is available. Thats why its called "work". I "worked" my way to get to where I'm at now. All people want now are handouts.


QUOTE OF THE YEAR! BTW, 74 and mostly cloudy here in NOLA...no waves washing over our walls yet.
He lives in DC and he doesn't like to talk about politics...?

That's sort of like being a butterfly and having a fear of flying!

Poor thing!
Quoting MontanaZephyr:


Actually, one of the main reasons that the world is so screwed up in so many ways these days is precisely because of the fact that the 1%ers have been mulcting so much from the other classes .... it results in, for instance, less safety, so you have the Horizon oil disaster in the gulf. It results in wives working, so you have all the social problems related to insufficient parenting. It results in people working three jobs and still no health care. It results in people being too busy to have any life BUT work ... so you have diminished participation in social groups and no time to keep up on events, and that results in just enough time to pick up the most solemnly ignorant of engineered opinions, making it possible to vote for enough stupid people such that, say the NC senate votes to officially disbeleive in global warming and rising seas. Civilization becomes increasingly stupid, ignorant, crass, vulgar and predatory.

Compare it all to the Leave-It-To-Beaver days of the fifties ... that relatively idyllic period, in which such a show was even possible, now seems more like science fiction ... One person made enough on a working class income to support a wife and kids, buy a nice solid house made with decent materials, and even some toys, and vacations, with trips to watch a ML baseball game regularly, in a regularly non-sleep-deprived state of mind.

omg this is perfect. do you mind if i steal this for my current novel?
Quoting Bluestorm5:
It's still amazing that there's debate over it...


it's not debate. it's trolling.