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Asia records its hottest temperature in history; Category 4 Phet threatens Oman

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:47 PM GMT on June 02, 2010

A hellish heat wave hit Pakistan last week, sending the mercury to an astonishing 53.5°C (128.3°F) at the town of MohenjuDaro on Wednesday May 26, reported the Pakistani Meteorological Department. While this temperature reading must be reviewed by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) for authenticity, not only is the 128.3°F reading the hottest temperature ever recorded in Pakistan, it is the hottest reliably measured temperature ever recorded on the continent of Asia. This information comes to me courtesy of Chris Burt, the author of Extreme Weather, who is probably the world's foremost expert on extreme weather records. In a collaborative effort with weather record researchers Maximiliano Herrera and Howard Rainford, Mr. Burt has painstakingly researched the extreme weather records for every country on Earth. They list the previous reliable record high for Asia as the 52.7°C (127°F) temperature measured on June 12, 1919, in the Sindh province of Pakistan. Temperatures exceed 120°F in this region of Pakistan nearly every year, in the late May/early June time frame before the monsoon arrives. Last week's heat wave killed at least 18 Pakistanis, and temperatures in excess of 50°C (122°F) were recorded at nine Pakistani cities on May 26, including 53°C (127.4°F) at Sibi.

All-time hottest temperature for Southeast Asia this month
Record heat also hit Southeast Asia in May. According to the Myanmar Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Myanmar (Burma) had its hottest temperature in its recorded history on May 12, when the mercury hit 47°C (116.6°F) in Myinmu. Myanmar's previous hottest temperature was 45.8°C (114.4°F) at Minbu, Magwe division on May 9, 1998. According to Mr. Burt, the 47°C (116.6°F) measured on May 12 this year is the hottest temperature measured in Southeast Asia in recorded history.

Bogus extreme temperature records
I'm pleased to say that Chris Burt will be joining wunderground.com as a featured blogger later this year to discuss his work. He's working on a great new website that features weather records for each country of the world, complete with footnotes on disputed records. For example, many record books list Israel as the site of Asia's all-time maximum temperature. Mr. Burt comments: "54°C (129.2°F) has widely been quoted as the highest temperature ever recorded in Israel (and Asia) but there exist serious issues with this record. The temperature was recorded on a thermograph at Tirat Zvi on 21 June 1942. Examination of a copy of this trace (see Bio-Climatic Atlas of Israel by Dr. D. Ashbel, Central Press, Jerusalem, 1950, p.125, Figure 1) actually shows a maximum temperature of 53°C (127.4°F). No explanation is known for this 1°C discrepancy. In comparison with surrounding stations, it is likely that the actual temperature recorded at Tirat Zvi on this data was probably no higher than 52°C (125.6°F), which would be a record high temperature for Israel. Temperatures have reached or exceeded 50°C (122°F) in Israel only during this one episode in 1942.


Figure 1. Temperature trace from Bio-Climatic Atlas of Israel by Dr. D. Ashbel, Central Press, Jerusalem, 1950, p.125 for Tirat Zvi, Israel, the week of June 21, 1942.


Figure 2. Zoom of temperature trace from Bio-Climatic Atlas of Israel by Dr. D. Ashbel, Central Press, Jerusalem, 1950, p.125, for Tirat Zvi, Israel, the week of June 21, 1942. The temperature clearly only reached 53°C, if one reads the graph properly. Thus the 54°C temperature labeled on the graph is not correct.

Mr. Burt comments in his Extreme Weather book that every temperature record for the planet in excess of 129°F can be disputed. All of these records, except for the 134°F recorded at Greenland Ranch in Death Valley, California, were made by French colonial era instruments which were found to be irregular as far as the exposure of the screens used to house the temperature instruments. In some cases, the temperature instrument was housed closer to the ground than it should have been. Mr. Burt will have an in-depth analysis of the evidence later this summer when he begins blogging for us.


Figure 3. Visible satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phet on Wednesday, June 2, 2010.

Tropical Cyclone Phet the 2nd strongest Arabian Sea storm on record
The record heat over southern Asia in May has helped heat up the Arabian Sea to 2°C above normal. The exceptionally warm SSTs have helped fuel a rare major hurricane in the Arabian Sea today, as Tropical Cyclone Phet underwent an impressive bout of rapid intensification this morning to become a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Phet is a Thai word pronounced as Pet, meaning "Diamond". Intense hurricanes are rare in the Arabian Sea, due to the basin's small size, the interference of the summer monsoon, and the frequent presence of dry air and dust from the Arabian Peninsula. Phet is now the second strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Arabian Sea, behind Category 5 Cyclone Gonu of 2007, which devastated Oman. Third place is held by the 2001 India Cyclone 01A and Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ARB 01 (02A), which were Category 3 storms with 125 mph winds.

Phet is over some of the warmest ocean waters on the planet, 30 - 31°C (86 - 88°F), and warm waters in excess of 26.5°C (80°F) extend to a depth of at least 50 meters (165 feet), resulting in a Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential high enough to allow Phet to attain Category 5 status. Phet is under moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is forecasting Phet to become a Category 5 storm later today. The storm is moving slowly north-northwest towards Oman, and could ingest dry air from the Arabian Peninsula on Thursday, resulting in weakening. It now appears likely that Phet will make landfall in Oman before recurving to the northeast and hitting Pakistan. The region of Oman likely to get hit is sparsely populated, so wind and storm surge damage will not be the main concerns. Phet will spread heavy rains over the heavily populated northern regions of Oman, which will likely cause extreme flooding. Phet has the potential to be worse for Oman than Tropical Cyclone Gonu, which did $4.2 billion in damage and killed 50 people in June 2007.

Impact on Pakistan
Phet is on track to make landfall in Pakistan or Iran after hitting Oman. Phet will be much weakened by passage over Oman, and may only be a tropical storm after crossing the Gulf of Oman and arriving at the Iran/Pakistan coast. Still, Phet's rains could easily cause destructive floods in Iran and Pakistan.

The strongest tropical cyclone on record to hit Pakistan was Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ARB 01 (02A), which hit near Karachi on May 20, 1999, as a Category 3 storm with 125 mph winds. According to Wikipedia, 02A killed 700 people did $6 million in damage (1999 USD). I've also found references to a December 15, 1965 cyclone that killed 10,000 near Karachi, Pakistan.

Oil spill update
Moderate onshore winds of 10 - 20 knots out of the southeast to southwest are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico over most of the next week, resulting increased threats of oil to Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA. These persistent southwesterly winds will likely bring oil as far east as Fort Walton Beach, Florida, by Monday.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll be back Thursday with more on Phet and an analysis of the new Colorado State University hurricane forecast issued by Phil Klotzbach and Bill Gray issued today.

Jeff Masters

Heat

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting xcool:
The 18 ECMWF


wow dnot know


Pretty sure there isnt an 18z ECMWF run available to the public.
Quoting RitaEvac:
I haven't seen a wall of rain like this over TX in a loooong time. Even rare to have this during June.



Tim Robins thinks so.
1503. Ossqss
Just so ya know, that is not Tampa's number,,, It is a song from many moons ago. :P L8R

Be well all !

Don't forget to check you picks and summary of such on my blog... You did ask for it and nearly 60 of you participated.
Neat graphic showing how much the Atlantic cooled, relative to climatology (right column), in one month.



Thank you, trades! (Pass it on to the Bermuda high)
1505. spathy
K2no
You got 1 flag and an instant ignore!



Shear is really starting to drop......GET READY!
1507. xcool
stormchaser2007 .cost to much.meann alot..
1469. Too bad i'm Jewish
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Pretty sure there isnt an 18z ECMWF run available to the public.


Do you mean permanently, or just tonight?
Quoting xcool:
stormchaser2007 .cost to much.meann alot..


Where'd you see it?
Quoting atmoaggie:
Neat graphic showing how much the Atlantic cooled, relative to climatology (right column), in one month.



Thank you, trades! (Pass it on to the Bermuda high)


The Gulf and Caribbean still look dangerously warm, however.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Do you mean permanently, or just tonight?

If your talking to me...

I've never heard of one.
1513. xcool
NHC USED CURR SHEAR MAP ..
Quoting Stormchaser2007:

If your talking to me...

I've never heard of one.


Obviously I'm talking to you, else I wouldn't have quoted you. >_>

Thanks, though. I was under the impression that all models had publicly available 18z runs. I guess not, though.
Quoting KoritheMan:


The Gulf and Caribbean still look dangerously warm, however.

And generally warming, still, as compared to climatology. The winds in the GoM have been nonexistent for more than a month, except for a day or 2.

good and bad...
Good thing for trying to keep oil out of marshes. Bad thing for available heat once a TC comes through.

G'nite.
1516. xcool
ON FREESITE . register to use ECMWF
1517. xcool
I'M READ IT ALL WRONG HAHA YEAH IAM DUCK .




The 18 ECMWF Member States listed in the ECMWF Overview are allocated a proportion of ECMWF's supercomputing resources and have access to its data archives
Quoting KoritheMan:


Obviously I'm talking to you, else I wouldn't have quoted you. >_>

Thanks, though. I was under the impression that all models had publicly available 18z runs. I guess not, though.


Sorry, the quote button has been acting up today so I didnt know if you meant to quote me.

To my knowledge, the ECMWF only has the 00z and 12z runs distributed to the public. Atmo or NRT may know more about this.

I wouldnt want 6z and 18z data anyway...
Quoting xcool:
I'M READ IT ALL WRONG HAHA YEAH IAM DUCK .




The 18 ECMWF Member States listed in the ECMWF Overview are allocated a proportion of ECMWF's supercomputing resources and have access to its data archives

I was wondering. I don't know of any 18 Z ECMWF sources.

Pretty sure that if it were available, one of these links would have it: http://supercellweather-models-ecmwf.blogspot.com/
1520. xcool
atmoaggie .GUESS ONE DAY HAVE 18Z ECMWF
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Sorry, the quote button has been acting up today so I didnt know if you meant to quote me.

To my knowledge, the ECMWF only has the 00z and 12z runs distributed to the public. Atmo or NRT may know more about this.

I wouldnt want 6z and 18z data anyway...


Wouldn't you think the fact that it doesn't run 6z and 18z runs just might make it more accurate?
1522. xcool





NEWWWW
Quoting KoritheMan:


Obviously I'm talking to you, else I wouldn't have quoted you. >_>

Thanks, though. I was under the impression that all models had publicly available 18z runs. I guess not, though.

Those Europeans are a little funny about whom's tax dollars are used for their products. Lots of weather data from Europe are restricted. Somewhat surprised we can get the 0 and 12 Z ECMWF, honestly. Can you imagine if we shared nothing outside our borders?

I don't know first hand, but I would expect most anyone on the planet can access everything NOAA produces.

Really leaving now. L8R.
Quoting SevereHurricane:


Wouldn't you think the fact that it doesn't run 6z and 18z runs just might make it more accurate?


Its possible. I wish it was run more frequently though with more products available to the public. Dont think that'll happen anytime soon though.


Anyways, goodnight everyone.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Its possible. I wish it was run more frequently though with more products available to the public. Dont think that'll happen anytime soon though.


Anyways, goodnight everyone.


Good Night Mike.
1527. xcool
IF HAVE 18Z ECMWF I WAS GOING TRY registration FOR...
Aww, dang, the inbox produced something to share...



Hmmm, not nearly as good as the one in my blog, though
1529. xcool
atmoaggie LMAO...
Quoting centex:
Only if cooled below normal would that make since. Science and this data shows warm. Why are you the main cool guy, is it a course at A&M? I only crap on your song because I%u2019m all too tired of your crap, give it up to real science and I will stop bugging you. This is prime example of your quack science. Block this and you%u2019re blocking reason.

Classic UT fan/student/grad.

The word you are looking for is "sense". As typing sentences that "make sense".

Now, the point was that the very warm SST anomaly near the end of April isn't nearly as much of a warm anomaly anymore, and the change was interestingly quick.

If that is incoherent to you, maybe there is block or clogged filter somewhere...
What happens when all this rain moves out into the Gulf for a few days? :-(

Quoting Patrap:
Wow. The blog today has hit a new low---hard to see why it's worth coming to Dr. Master's blog, aside to read the entry itself and a few posters. Really ruined it today.
1533. centex
Quoting atmoaggie:

Classic UT fan/student/grad.

The word you are looking for is "sense". As typing sentences that "make sense".

Now, the point was that the very warm SST anomaly near the end of April isn't nearly as much of a warm anomaly anymore, and the change was interestingly quick.

If that is incoherent to you, maybe there is block or clogged filter somewhere...
It's very simple if you believe in science. All good sources are on my side, your on side of quack science. Do they teach that at A&M? I here FOX teaches it and they are peer reviewed. Ha Ha
Oh, hey centex, good to see you.
1535. centex
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Oh, hey centex, good to see you.
Thank you, we need to stay together and point out the quacks.
1536. xcool
:0
1537. Levi32
Quoting centex:
Thank you, we need to stay together and point out the quacks.


Lol, pick me pick me!
1538. xcool
lol
1539. centex
Quoting xcool:
lol
Quoting Levi32:


Lol, pick me pick me!
Your on my list of quack when you venture to GW subject. Otherwise your a good tropical blogger. Just trying to give this blog a better image and GW science quacks are a real drag. It's so well documented and only makes blog look foolish from science perpective.
Quoting centex:
Your on my list of quack when you venture to GW subject. Otherwise your a good tropical blogger. Just trying to give this blog a better image and GW science quacks are a real drag. It's so well documented and only makes blog look foolish from science perpective.


Are you the Captain of the blog police?
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Wow. The blog today has hit a new low---hard to see why it's worth coming to Dr. Master's blog, aside to read the entry itself and a few posters. Really ruined it today.


idk... It got pretty bad last year. lol
1543. xcool
Hurricanes101 .;0
Katrina2NOLA2010:
has been replaced with empty space
1545. Patrap


1546. xcool
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Katrina2NOLA2010:
has been replaced with empty space


thank you admin!
Lawrenceville-Vincennes Intl Airport
Lat: 38.76 Lon: -87.6 Elev: 430
Last Update on Jun 2, 11:53 pm CDT

Fog/Mist

74 °F
(23 °C)
Humidity: 88 %
Wind Speed: S 6 MPH
Barometer: 29.75" (1007.0 mb)
Dewpoint: 70 °F (21 °C)
Visibility: 6.00 mi.

I find it amusing that centex only comes out late at night
1549. Patrap
good morning, bloggers.
Quoting Patrap:


rain anyone?
1553. txjac
Quoting tornadodude:


rain anyone?


I'm hearing thunder now ...cant wait, looking forward to it
Quoting Houstonia:
What happens when all this rain moves out into the Gulf for a few days? :-(



Hopefully not much as it's supposed to sit on us for a couple days.

GMZ089-030930-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1030 PM CDT WED JUN 02 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK TROUGH WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NW
WATERS THU. A RIDGE WILL BUILD W ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS
THU NIGHT THROUGH MON.

This gem model seems to agree. Shows a lot of precip and just barely moves it east by Saturday. Link
1555. Patrap
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number TWENTY
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM PHET (ARB02-2010)
5:30 AM IST June 3 2010
=======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Phet over west central Arabian Sea moved slightly westward and lays centered near 18.5N 59.5E, or 1400 kms west of Mumbai, 1100 kms southwest of Maliya, 1050 kms southwest of Karachi, Pakistan, 450 kms south southeast of Sur, Oman, and 220 kms south southeast of Misiirah Island.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 70 knots with a central pressure of 976 hPa. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the system's center.

The Dvorak intensity of the system is T4.0. Associated broken intense to very intense convection observed over area between 13.5N to 20.0N and west of 61.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is about -85C in association with the system.

Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is between 10-15 knots. The system lies to the south of tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 20.0N over the region.

Due to proximity to the land surface, the system is interacting with land and showing signs of weakening. Further, due to changing environmental flow pattern, the system would move slowly in a northwesterly/northerly direction for the next 24 hours and cross Oman coast between 20.0-21.0N by tomorrow morning. It would then weaken gradually, recurve northeast nad emerge into northwest Arabian Sea by Saturday, heading towards Pakistan coast.

Gale winds of 60-65 knots gusting to 70 knots would occur along and off Oman coast.

Storm surge guidance for Oman Coast
====================================
Storm surge of 2 meters above the astronomical tide would occur around the time of landfall.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 19.5N 58.5E - 65 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 20.5N 58.0E - 60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS: 22.5N 59.5E - 55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS: 24.5N 63.0E - 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
1557. Patrap
526
fxus64 khgx 030453
afdhgx


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
1155 PM CDT Wednesday Jun 2 2010


Update...
06z taf update below.


&&


Aviation...
broken line of thunderstorms moving across the majority of our hubs
through 08z. Expect brief heavy downpours and winds in gust to 40
miles per hour with this line as it passes off to the east at 25-35 miles per hour.
Early morning stabilization (in possible -shra shield) will not
last long as another round (or two) of convection rolls through
during the daylight hours. The better performing guidance...if
gauged by tonight's activity...has higher rain amounts south of
the I-10 corridor and points east...shifting southeastward during
mid-day. The slow movement of the upper trough as this latest mesoscale convective system
dissolves within it...will set-up a possible wet situation as the
convergent eastern side of trough axis lays over the Texas coast
line. Either way...timing of eventual convection best handled by
tempos in short term...prob30s past 12 hours. 31


Mportant note...klbx will be down due to scheduled maintenance. Taf
none will be issued until ASOS service is restored. The outage may
last three weeks or more.


*****************************************************

Public Information Statement

Statement as of 10:34 PM CDT on June 2, 2010

... Public information statement...

The NOAA all hazards weather radio transmitter site at New Taiton
has gone down due to communications issues with the telephone
line. The transmitter... call sign k j y 78 operating on a
frequency of 162.45 mhz will be down until further notice.
Updates will be provided as technicians troubleshoot this issue.
1558. xcool

The Numbers Keep Going Higher...

Not surprisingly Dr. Gray's team upped their number of named storms in their June update today. They now say 18 storms will form with 10 becoming hurricanes and 5 of those reaching Cat. 3 or stronger. One of the things I like about these Hurricane "Forecasts" is that we can verify them in 6 months, unlike the Global Warming Alarmist's predictions of 50-100 years out. I'll say this, if come November we end up with single digit storm numbers (only one group out of Houston says that), the credibility of these seasonal forecasts will be questioned as to their real value.

All Parishes are preaching from the same gospel(which they should) that calls for preparing NOW and every week before the heart of the season arrives. Stock up on supplies(a little at a time) and then have a plan on where you're going in case we need to evacuate. You can watch the FOX 8 hurricane preparedness special WEATHERING THE STORM 2010 again this Sunday at 12 noon.


bob brecks
1559. Patrap

Gov. Bobby Jindal urges Obama to get deepwater drilling back quickly


By The Times-Picayune
June 02, 2010, 9:27PM


On Wednesday, Gov. Bobby Jindal sent the following letter to President Obama and Interior Secretary Ken Salazar regarding grave concerns about the administration's decision to place a moratorium on deepwater drilling:

Dear President Obama and Secretary Salazar:

I am writing to express my grave concerns regarding the severe economic impact of a six-month (or longer) suspension of activity at 33 previously permitted deepwater drilling rigs in the Gulf of Mexico, including and in particular the 22 deepwater drilling rigs currently in operation off the Louisiana coast.

Already, Louisiana has suffered severe negative economic and ecological impacts from the BP oil spill. Our seafood industry is experiencing huge economic losses that have only been partially mitigated by a frustratingly slow and inadequate BP claims process. Moreover, our precious wetlands are suffering incalculable, permanent damages, while our tourism industry faces escalating losses.

During one of the most challenging economic periods in decades, the last thing we need is to enact public policies that will certainly destroy thousands of existing jobs while preventing the creation of thousands more.

The Louisiana Department of Economic Development estimates that the active drilling suspension alone will result in a loss of 3,000 to 6,000 Louisiana jobs in the next 2-3 weeks and potentially over 10,000 Louisiana jobs within a few months. If the suspension of active drilling activity continues for an extended period, LED estimates that our state risks losing more than 20,000 existing and potential new Louisiana jobs in the next 12-18 months.

Obviously these losses would come on top of those already generated by the spill and its related effects. Moreover, the announced moratorium of deepwater drilling activity creates a significant risk that many of these drilling platforms would be relocated to other countries -- along with the hundreds of high-paying jobs that they each create.

Additionally, I fully understand the need for strict oversight of deepwater drilling. However, I would ask that the federal government move quickly to ensure that all deepwater drilling is in proper compliance with federal regulation and is conducted safely so that energy production and more importantly, thousands of jobs, are not in limbo.

Thank you in advance for your swift consideration of this request.

Sincerely,

Governor Bobby Jindal
1560. centex
I only got .61 in round rock. Wanted more.

1561. xcool



1562. centex
Quoting Patrap:

Gov. Bobby Jindal urges Obama to get deepwater drilling back quickly


By The Times-Picayune
June 02, 2010, 9:27PM


On Wednesday, Gov. Bobby Jindal sent the following letter to President Obama and Interior Secretary Ken Salazar regarding grave concerns about the administration's decision to place a moratorium on deepwater drilling:

Dear President Obama and Secretary Salazar:

I am writing to express my grave concerns regarding the severe economic impact of a six-month (or longer) suspension of activity at 33 previously permitted deepwater drilling rigs in the Gulf of Mexico, including and in particular the 22 deepwater drilling rigs currently in operation off the Louisiana coast.

Already, Louisiana has suffered severe negative economic and ecological impacts from the BP oil spill. Our seafood industry is experiencing huge economic losses that have only been partially mitigated by a frustratingly slow and inadequate BP claims process. Moreover, our precious wetlands are suffering incalculable, permanent damages, while our tourism industry faces escalating losses.

During one of the most challenging economic periods in decades, the last thing we need is to enact public policies that will certainly destroy thousands of existing jobs while preventing the creation of thousands more.

The Louisiana Department of Economic Development estimates that the active drilling suspension alone will result in a loss of 3,000 to 6,000 Louisiana jobs in the next 2-3 weeks and potentially over 10,000 Louisiana jobs within a few months. If the suspension of active drilling activity continues for an extended period, LED estimates that our state risks losing more than 20,000 existing and potential new Louisiana jobs in the next 12-18 months.

Obviously these losses would come on top of those already generated by the spill and its related effects. Moreover, the announced moratorium of deepwater drilling activity creates a significant risk that many of these drilling platforms would be relocated to other countries -- along with the hundreds of high-paying jobs that they each create.

Additionally, I fully understand the need for strict oversight of deepwater drilling. However, I would ask that the federal government move quickly to ensure that all deepwater drilling is in proper compliance with federal regulation and is conducted safely so that energy production and more importantly, thousands of jobs, are not in limbo.

Thank you in advance for your swift consideration of this request.

Sincerely,

Governor Bobby Jindal
Editorial comment? I would not attempt to try one with a local.
For everyone in the Beaumont, Port Authur area.
From Channel 12

BIG STORMS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...
Updated: Jun 02, 2010 8:55 PM CDT

UPDATE:

A thunderstorm complex in Central Texas is moving towards Southeast Texas this evening and should move into the area around 3AM Friday Morning. Heavy rainfall of 2 inches, frequent lightning and gusty winds are expected during the morning commute. A severe thunderstorm watch may be issued for Southeast Texas.

Forecast Discussion

Good Evening Southeast Texas!

Upper-level low pressure in West Texas will continue to move towards Southeast Texas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible in the area after mid-night. High rain chances are then expected as the upper-level low moves right over Southeast Texas Thursday. Heavy rainfall could result. The upper-level low will move further down the coast by the weekend but will be close enough to keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through mid-week.

Cooler afternoon high temperatures will result Thursday due to the clouds and rain...only in the middle-eighties. The lower-nineties are then expected Saturday through Wednesday.

1564. xcool
cmc shows 0000%
That's a lot a water. Hopefully this won't be accurate.

1566. centex
Quoting homelesswanderer:
That's a lot a water. Hopefully this won't be accurate.

It's moving fast but do see a little back building. I think less than serious flood situation.
We've had 0.10" of rain since May 4. A blob like that over here would be welcome!
yeah, but on the coasts it could get ugly.
1569. xcool
stormp repots


george west LIVE oak tx


TREE REPOTED KNOCKED DOWN NEAR FM799
1571. centex
My wife just came in from Houston after being diverted from direct DC to Austin. They took a northern route to avoid storm. I think storm will go down as totally beneficial.
1572. xcool
Link


new ecwmf
Kinda a weird storm.
Quoting xcool:
Link


new ecwmf


it follows the african wave, all the way up till the northern windward islands, interesting, :).
Quoting centex:
Yes, the quack anti GM police. The science is one way and several top bloggers (not host) keep talkng the FOX news approach and try to make it seem like science. I point it out and will continue to point it out. I see no reason to stop because they keep posting crap. When they stop I will stop. Funny, are you a quack, let me know and will add you to my list. I get lots of email from other WG bloggers who also are tired of quacks.

Thank you, we need more of this.


Albert Einstein : Nothing that I can do will change the structure of the universe. But maybe, by raising my voice I can help the greatest of all causes -- goodwill among men and peace on earth.
http://www.iwise.com/PUSru
1576. xcool
african wave gfs and ngp too mmm
1577. xcool



SHEAR MAP
night, all
1579. xcool
1580. GBguy88
This isn't really related to the tropics, and for that I apologize...but I just got back from Orange Beach/Gulf Shores area in Alabama, and the smell of oil is intoxicating. It nearly gave me a headache it was so strong. Just really bizarre and sad. The smell almost made it more real, it seemed. Won't be long before it's lapping at Pensacola.
1581. KRL
COMMENTARY . . . .

Growing up 5 decades ago, life and the world seemed so much more stable because everyone just watched one of the 3 major TV networks to get 30 minutes worth of the top news stories which would last us till 6:30pm the following day. Weather reports were quick and brief. Nothing like today where you see storm chasers filming tornados from 50 yds away or horrendous floods and hurricanes in other parts of the world on live streaming cams.

Now we are innundated with real time news and weather information streams from the entire planet and I think that is why everything seems so much more chaotic and frightening at times.
It doesn't stop anymore and we can't catch our breath from it all. It seems like one bad event after another.

I think most all of us born in the 50's truly miss those simpler days . . . .
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number TWENTY-ONE
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM PHET (ARB02-2010)
8:30 AM IST June 3 2010
=======================================

At 3:00 AM UTC, Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Phet over west central Arabian Sea remained practically stationary and lays centered near 18.5N 59.5E, or 1400 kms west of Mumbai, 1100 kms southwest of Naliya, Gujarat, 1050 kms southwest of Karachi, Pakistan, 450 kms south southeast of Sur, Oman, and 220 kms south southeast of Masirah Island, Oman.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 70 knots with a central pressure of 976 hPa. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the system's center.

The Dvorak intensity of the system is T4.0. Ragged eye visible with the system. Associated broken intense to very intense convection observed over area between 13.5 to 20.0N and west of 61.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is about -85C in association with the system.

Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is between 10-15 knots. The system lies to the south of tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 20.0N over the region.

Due to proximity to the land surface, the system is interacting with land and showing signs of weakening. Further, due to changing environmental flow pattern, the system would move slowly in a northwesterly/northerly direction for the next 24 hours and cross Oman coast between 20.0-21.0N by tomorrow morning. It would then weaken gradually, recurve northeast and emerge into northwest Arabian Sea by Saturday, heading towards Pakistan coast.

Gale winds of 60-65 knots gusting to 70 knots would occur along and off Oman coast.

Storm surge guidance for Oman Coast
====================================
Storm surge of 2 meters above the astronomical tide would occur around the time of landfall.
1583. Halyn
1552. tornadodude: "rain anyone" ..

No thanks, tornadodude .. we have had plenty so I'm sending some your way .. :)Courtesy of the St. Louis area .. :)
Quoting Halyn:
1552. tornadodude: "rain anyone" ..

No thanks, tornadodude .. we have had plenty so I'm sending some your way .. :)Courtesy of the St. Louis area .. :)


and boy is it ever raining!! sheeesh! lol
Oman Meteorological Department

Date: 03/06/2010
Time: 07:00 LST.

The Weather System over Arabian Sea
Warning no. 4

Heavy rainfall has started to fall over some parts of Al-Sharqiya region. Latest Satellite images and numerical weather prediction charts indicate the tropical cyclone PHET over west Arabian Sea has moved further towards North West direction.

It's centre is currently located near latitude 18.5N 59.4E. PHET is around 180 km away from Masirah Island. Maximum sustained wind speed around the centre is estimated to be around 100 knots and by which it is classified as Category 3. PHET is expected to continue its movement into a Northwesterly direction towards A'Sharqiya and AlWasta coastal areas in the next 24 hours with 4 knots associated with heavy thunder shower accompany with strong winds. Regions of, AlDhakhlia and AlBhatinah and Muscat Governate are expected to be affected by the convective cloud between Thursday afternoon until Saturday.


I hope accuweather is wrong. In the 15 day forecast on day 15 it shows this.

Thursday

high 113/low 85
atmoaggie "Neat graphic showing how much the Atlantic cooled, relative to climatology..."
1525 centex "Only if cooled below normal would that make sense. Science and this data shows warm. [vituperation deleted]"

Don't act obtuse jes cuz ya don't like a guy's politics. It's way too petty ifn' ya actually like science.

Yes it is still warm. The point is that in April2010, things were frying compared to Aprils of the past. Heck I was freakin' out in midApril cuz tropical NorthAtlantic and Caribbean temperatures were nearly looking like those in June2005.

So here it is, the beginning of June2010... and it looks pretty much*like the beginning of June2005.

The point is that when comparing the same times of year, instead of frying like April2010 as compared to April2005, June2010 looks about the^same as June2005.
Hence things look relatively cooler now than they did in April.

* Yes the Gulf of Mexico has gotten considerably warmer since the cold April start, and it now looks like the beginning of June2005.
^ Maybe somewhat warmer in spots, but there are other areas north of the Bahamas-to-PuertoRico line that are somewhat cooler.
Good morning all! I missed Dr. Master's and Hurricane Haven cause I couldn't get it on my iPhone. Is there "an app for that"? Is there a podcast somewhere? Any help would be much appreciated!
Quoting KRL:
COMMENTARY . . . .

Growing up 5 decades ago, life and the world seemed so much more stable because everyone just watched one of the 3 major TV networks to get 30 minutes worth of the top news stories which would last us till 6:30pm the following day. Weather reports were quick and brief. Nothing like today where you see storm chasers filming tornados from 50 yds away or horrendous floods and hurricanes in other parts of the world on live streaming cams.

Now we are innundated with real time news and weather information streams from the entire planet and I think that is why everything seems so much more chaotic and frightening at times.
It doesn't stop anymore and we can't catch our breath from it all. It seems like one bad event after another.

I think most all of us born in the 50's truly miss those simpler days . . . .




well said and "nuff" said
1592. scott39
Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning

Watching East of the Bahamas; Tropical Waves A'Comin
Thanks 456, Is it too far out to say where these potential TCs will go after they enter the Carribean?
1593. scott39
Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning

Watching East of the Bahamas; Tropical Waves A'Comin
Thanks 456, Is it too early to say where these potiential TCs may track after they reach the Carrribean?
1594. scott39
Quoting scott39:
Thanks 456, Is it too far out to say where these potential TCs will go after they enter the Carribean?
Sorry about double post! It wasnt working at first.
off to work hopeflly slow weather day in atlantic basin check in latter
1596. barbamz
Good morning over there from Germany.
Composition of different ROV-Cams (link from The Oil Drum Blog). Hope the best for the Gulf!
http://www.troutbugs.com/rovs.html
1597. IKE
Quoting Autistic2:




well said and "nuff" said


Just my personal opinion...I'm tired of seeing storm chasers chasing tornadoes. I've seen it enough. The Weather Channel runs it into the ground in the evenings.


6Z GFS is BP's worst nightmare.
1598. scott39
Quoting IKE:


Just my personal opinion...I'm tired of seeing storm chasers chasing tornadoes. I've seen it enough. The Weather Channel runs it into the ground in the evenings.


6Z GFS is BP's worst nightmare.
I hope that doesnt come true!
1599. IKE
Quoting scott39:
I hope that doesnt come true!


I'll still say...there will be a named storm in the GOM by July 1st.

And...if there's going to be 18-23 named storms....then...the season needs to start...this month. Otherwise...18-23 named storms in 5 months? That's 4-5 a month!(July to Dec. 1st).
Storms in Houston over night dropped 1.63 in in my yard in Katy,,,,needed the rain!
1601. IKE
I had 2.18 yesterday.
1602. scott39
Quoting IKE:


I'll still say...there will be a named storm in the GOM by July 1st.
Unfourtunately it is inevitable! Our beaches and inland areas our toast this year!
1603. scott39
Quoting IKE:


I'll still say...there will be a named storm in the GOM by July 1st.

And...if there's going to be 18-23 named storms....then...the season needs to start...this month. Otherwise...18-23 named storms in 5 months? That's 4-5 a month!(July to Dec. 1st).
Do you know how mny storms were named in june of 2005?
Quoting scott39:
Thanks 456, Is it too early to say where these potiential TCs may track after they reach the Carrribean?


the earliest waves are like 1 week away so we cannot make any accurate speculations....

If you believe the long range GFS, one develops in the SW Caribbean. I do not pay attention to the GFS pass 1 week for operational forecasting.

1605. scott39
Quoting Weather456:


the earliest waves are like 1 week away so we cannot make any accurate speculations....

If you believe the long range GFS, one develops in the SW Caribbean. I do not pay attention to the GFS pass 1 week for operational forecasting.

Thanks
1606. IKE
They're trying to put top-hat on the top of the riser...now.
1607. IKE
Quoting scott39:
Do you know how mny storms were named in june of 2005?


Yup...first storm was June 8th...quiet til the end of June and then it started, big-time.
1608. shakaka
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
NOAA forecasted an ACE of 155% - 270% this year in 2005 the total ACE was 248.1%. Not good, if we have 18 storms most of them will likely be very intense, why? Because in 2005 the ACE was 248% and they had 27 storms.


You are making way too many assumptions here.
1609. scott39
Quoting Weather456:


the earliest waves are like 1 week away so we cannot make any accurate speculations....

If you believe the long range GFS, one develops in the SW Caribbean. I do not pay attention to the GFS pass 1 week for operational forecasting.

Do you have the breakdown of each month of the 2005 season of how many storms each month had and where they went? Thanks
1610. scott39
Quoting IKE:


Yup...first storm was June 8th...quiet til the end of June and then it started, big-time.
Thanks
1611. SLU
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 9N21W TO 3N23W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT IN THE FIRST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY. A RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS
NOTED NEAR THE WAVE AXIS (6n 25w to be exact). WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH A DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 20W-22W.
G'morning.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 48W-51W.
1597 IKE "6Z GFS is BP's worst nightmare."

Aw c'mon... a Pacific crosser trashes the eastern Gulf of Mexico? That's jes plain cheatin', that is.
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS PANAMA/COSTA RICA ALONG 83W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES WLY FLOW IN THE E PACIFIC WHICH WILL BEGIN TO PREVENT IT FROM PROPAGATING WWD. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE E PACIFIC. SCATTERED MODERATE /ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 79W-85W.
1616. guygee
Quoting xcool:

...Not surprisingly Dr. Gray's team upped their number of named storms in their June update today. They now say 18 storms will form with 10 becoming hurricanes and 5 of those reaching Cat. 3 or stronger. One of the things I like about these Hurricane "Forecasts" is that we can verify them in 6 months, unlike the Global Warming Alarmist's predictions of 50-100 years out. [...]
So where do you draw the line between our host, Dr. Masters, who believes man-made global warming has a real scientific basis, and your "Global Warming Alarmists"? You should really clarify that, as Dr. Masters has suggested that people read the IPCC reports that do have long-term predictions
1617. scott39
I hope 2010 isnt the same as 2005 in landfalls of Hurricanes, because the Gulf Coast is in for a very long season if it is!
1618. cg2916
Morning, guys!

Let's take a look:



Areas that caught my eye:

1. East of Georgia and South Carolina.

2. North of Puerto Rico

3. Blob in the NW GOM

4. SE of Lesser Antilles



Areas that caught my eye:

1. SW of the picture

2. Wave just off of Africa

Now, I'm not saying any of these will/will not form, I'm just pointing out areas to watch.
1619. cg2916
Quoting scott39:
I hope 2010 isnt the same as 2005 in landfalls of Hurricanes, because the Gulf Coast is in for a very long season if it is!


Shouldn't be quite that bad.
1620. barbamz
http://www.troutbugs.com/rovs.html
Watch Scandi Rov 2. Giant shear is moved in position.
1621. scott39
Quoting cg2916:


Shouldn't be quite that bad.
I hope not, what makes you say that?
1622. WxLogic
Good Morning...
1623. SLU




Looks like the warm waters are on the rebound now.

Good Morning.......Only current pockets of relatively low sheer in the MDR around ares of interest this morning are around the wave approaching South America, off-the MidAtlantic States and just off-shore of the frontal boundry about the emerge in the NW corner of the Gulf. However, I don't think any of the models have developed these features and the front entering the Gulf is not forecast to stall out in the Gulf, but, keep sweeping towards the East; basically a rain event for the Northern Gulf States.......Climatologically speaking, the first storm of the Atlantic season does not occur until around July 11th.
Quoting IKE:
They're trying to put top-hat on the top of the riser...now.


Looks to me shearhands is trying to shear off the riser still???

Link


A lot more ROVs to choose from:

Link
scott39 "Do you know how mny storms were named in june of 2005??"

Two. TSArlene almost became a hurricane before a Florida landfall near the Alabama border. The second TropicalStorm spun up near end of the month, and is memorable only for being short and wimpy.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
333 AM EDT THU JUN 3 2010

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS. MAIN DISTURBANCE IN THIS FLOW PATTERN IS A COMPACT UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EAST TEXAS...WHICH TRIGGERED THE SQUALL LINE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO SLIDE VERY SLOWLY EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS KEEPING THE TRI-STATE AREA UNDER A MOIST AND DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES EJECTING FROM THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO ENHANCE LIFT AS WELL AS GENERATE A WEAK SFC TROUGH/LOW
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A WET COUPLE OF DAYS ACROSS THE REGION.


The Northern Gulf rain event......Not good in terms of the Oil Slick however which will be pushed towards the shores of LA/MS/AL/Fl Panhandle over the next few days....
1628. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Looks to me shearhands is trying to shear off the riser still???

Link


A lot more ROVs to choose from:

Link


I see what you're saying. I was looking at the top-hat w/another ROV.

That is one hell of a job.

Sen. Bill Nelson just on CNN, said he thought this would go on until August. He said he had no faith in BP with what they're attempting now.
1629. Makoto1
Morning, looks like just minor things to watch in the tropics.

Outside my house... Well that's another story, another thunderstorm coming in. I knew it felt way too humid for Ohio this morning...
Quoting cg2916:
Morning, guys!

Let's take a look:



Areas that caught my eye:

1. East of Georgia and South Carolina.

2. North of Puerto Rico

3. Blob in the NW GOM

4. SE of Lesser Antilles



Areas that caught my eye:

1. SW of the picture

2. Wave just off of Africa

Now, I'm not saying any of these will/will not form, I'm just pointing out areas to watch.


BLOBORAMA!
hey guys, does anybody know how strong the shear is in the area north of the Dominican? never mind, its about 40 knots, unless it weakens, nothings going form.
Quoting fuzzy3456:
hey guys, does anybody know how strong the shear is in the area north of the Dominican? never mind, its about 40 knots, unless it weakens, nothings going form.


As of 06Z:



35-40 kts
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


As of 06Z:



35-40 kts


No, thats vertical shear. We dont need that.
Good morning! Wow, look at that tropical wave. We are in for a long season.
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:


No, thats vertical shear. We dont need that.


I'm confused? I don't know much about the tropics, but I was told that was the most accurate shear map.
Either way it's 40 knots.
1638. hercj
Quoting guygee:
So where do you draw the line between our host, Dr. Masters, who believes man-made global warming has a real scientific basis, and your "Global Warming Alarmists"? You should really clarify that, as Dr. Masters has suggested that people read the IPCC reports that do have long-term predictions


Dr Masters and I both know Dr. Christopher Landsea who walked off that commission for obvious reasons. The problem is it is being politically driven by self serving politicians and the science is taking a back seat.
1639. guygee
Quoting hercj:

Dr Masters and I both know Dr. Christopher Landsea who walked off that commission for obvious reasons. The problem is it is being politically driven by self serving politicians and the science is taking a back seat.
So Dr. Masters knows Landsea, how does that address my original question? Does Jeff Masters agree with Landsea? If so, his blogs here do not confirm this, rather the opposite, as Dr. Masters has linked to the IPCC reports in several of his blogs.
good morn wunderground
Good Morning...

1642. hercj
Quoting hercj:


Dr Masters and I both know Dr. Christopher Landsea who walked off that commission for obvious reasons. The problem is it is being politically driven by self serving politicians and the science is taking a back seat.
Quoting guygee:
So Dr. Masters knows Landsea, how does that address my original question? Does Jeff Masters agree with Landsea? If so, his blogs here do not confirm this, rather the opposite, as Dr. Masters has linked to the IPCC reports in several of his blogs.

You raise and interesting question. I am still quite frankly trying to figure that out myself. I do not know Dr. Masters but I know many people he does. I think he posts things sometimes here for discussion sake but his own professional opinions escape me at this time. I am sure at some point he will clarify them.
Can we ban the phrase "just like 2005"? Or..we can turn it into a drinking game...anytime someone posts a comparison to 2005 everyone does a shot!
Dr. Landsea doesn't "Believe" in a link between stronger hurricanes and global warming , for that reason probably he was chosen by the Bush administration over another scientist to speak to the press after Katrina.

He participated in that politicization.

He doesnt really say anything about Ocean Acidification and other warming related realities. Just that he doesnt believe hurricanes will strengthen as a result of warming.

He doenst seem to actually publish much on climate.
Quoting DestinJeff:
Morning, party people. Rain is coming down big time this a.m.

Not much time now to stick around, but back later to offer my analysis. Wait, I never really do that? Oh well, back later to look at other people's analysis.



LOL
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:


No, thats vertical shear. We dont need that.


It is the same thing.
The e-mails also show that after Hurricane Katrina, NOAA press officers had to get clearance from the Department of Commerce for scientists to discuss global warming and hurricanes with the press. (NOAA is part of Commerce.) Regarding the request for a particular interview, Commerce press officer Catherine Trinh wrote, "Let's pass on this one." The response from a NOAA official reads, "Can I please have a reason?"

In another message, Trinh writes, "Let's pass on this ... interview, but rather refer him to BLANK of the BLANK at BLANK. CEQ suggested him as a good person to talk on this subject." The blanks denote passages that were whited out by lawyers releasing the documents.

But Commerce's deputy director of communications, Chuck Fuqua, was happy to have a more politically reliable NOAA hurricane researcher named Chris Landsea speak to the press. At the time, Landsea was stating publicly that global warming had little to no effect on hurricanes.
1649. hercj
Quoting JFLORIDA:
Dr. Landsea doesn't "believe" in a link between stronger hurricanes and global warming , for that reason probably he was chosen by the bush administration over another scientist to speak to the press after Katrina.

He doesnt really say anything about Ocean Acidification and other warming related realities. Just that he doesnt believe hurricanes will strengthen as a result of warming.



Sir, Dr Christopher J Landsea, one of the TOP Atmospheric Scientists in the world with unimpeachable credentials was asked to straight out LIE in that IPCC REPORT!!!!! This taints the science in THAT REPORT!!! He refused and walked off and has professionally suffered for it. If this is the direction that you want science to go leave me out of it.
"Please make sure Chris is on message and that it is a friendly discussion," Fuqua wrote regarding a request for Landsea to appear on "The NewsHour With Jim Lehrer." On the show, Landsea downplayed research that linked global warming with more-intense hurricanes like Katrina.

So really you cant get more political than that. He certainly participated happily too.
This can't end well.
Quoting hercj:

Sir, Dr Christopher J Landsea, one of the TOP Atmospheric Scientists in the world with unimpeachable credentials was asked to straight out LIE in that IPCC REPORT!!!!! This taints the science in THAT REPORT!!! He refused and walked off and has professionally suffered for it. If this is the direction that you want science to go leave me out of it.




NO his climate research? - YOU IMPLIED HE WAS A CLIMATE WHICH HE IS NOT.

YOU ALSO IMPLY HE IS DISGRUNTLED WITH THE POLITICS OF WARMING WHICH HE HIMSELF DISPROVED.
Gooood morning guys weather down here is hot hot and dry and calm andwe need rain I thought we are in our rainy season but where is the rain
Quoting mikatnight:
Good Morning...



Is that oil sheen? (j/k)
NOW I would like to see his published work on climate and hurricanes.
1656. hercj
Quoting JFLORIDA:




NO his climate research? - YOU IMPLIED HE WAS A CLIMATE WHICH HE IS NOT.

YOU ALSO IMPLY HE IS DISGRUNTLED WITH POLITICS WHICH HE HIMSELF DISPROVED.

No sir I am referring to the validity of the IPCC report. Not Dr Landsea's own science and as far as politics is concerned he fought back. As I have stated I know him and this was not where he wanted to be but he was given no choice in the matter once he accepted that position on that panel. Go along with what he did not believe, or walk off. He walked off they tried to discredit him and he fought back using the only forum he could. The media.
1657. P451
The pressure coming out of that well is just insane. Not sure how some rovers are going to be able to place a lid on that kind of pressure. How would they have the force to counter that? Let alone get anything lined up.

Quoting JFLORIDA:
Dr. Landsea doesn't "Believe" in a link between stronger hurricanes and global warming , for that reason probably he was chosen by the Bush administration over another scientist to speak to the press after Katrina.

He participated in that politicization.

He doesnt really say anything about Ocean Acidification and other warming related realities. Just that he doesnt believe hurricanes will strengthen as a result of warming.

He doenst seem to actually publish much on climate.


He was a co-author along with other leading hurricane researchers in a recently published paper,
Tropical cyclones and climate change.
Quoting CaneWarning:
This can't end well.


Sigh...
1660. IKE
Quoting P451:
The pressure coming out of that well is just insane. Not sure how some rovers are going to be able to place a lid on that kind of pressure. How would they have the force to counter that? Let alone get anything lined up.



Incredibly difficult job. I'm not optimistic.
Quoting hercj:

No sir I am referring to the validity of the IPCC report. Not Dr Landsea's own science and as far as politics is concerned he fought back. As I have stated I know him and this was not where he wanted to be but he was given no choice in the matter once he accepted that position on that panel. Go along with what he did not believe, or walk off. He walked off they tried to discredit him and he fought back using the only forum he could. The media.



He objected to "One study has found that while the dominant signal remains that of the significant increases in the values of exposure at risk, once losses are normalised for exposure, there still remains an underlying rising trend"

That is hardly a Alarmist position in that report.


As a matter of fact in 2008 NOAA published:


Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA
Sept. 3, 2008; Last Revised May 5, 2010

Anthropogenic warming over the next century will likely cause hurricanes globally to be more intense (by a few percent on average) and have substantially higher rainfall rates than present-day hurricanes.

1533: That was about my AGW beliefs?

Dude, no post of mine in here has been about AGW in months. If that's all you see when I am discussing SST anomalies in the MDR...then, well, like I said, you seem to have a block or clogged filter.
Quoting IKE:


Incredibly difficult job. I'm not optimistic.


The scariest thing I heard was that this could go on until Christmas.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


He was a co-author along with other leading hurricane researchers in a recently published paper,
Tropical cyclones and climate change.


From that report:

Large amplitude fluctuations in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones greatly complicate both the detection of long-term trends and their attribution to rising levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases. Trend detection is further impeded by substantial limitations in the availability and quality of global historical records of tropical cyclones. Therefore, it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes. However, future projections based on theory and high-resolution dynamical models consistently indicate that greenhouse warming will cause the globally averaged intensity of tropical cyclones to shift towards stronger storms, with intensity increases of 20% by 2100.
1665. JamesSA
That shear does a pretty decent job of pinching off the cut end. Had they not cut into that pipe earlier with the diamond saw, they would likely end up with a greatly reduced flow after making this cut. Too bad.
1666. P451
Quoting IKE:


Incredibly difficult job. I'm not optimistic.


BP should be obligated to slash the prices of their gasoline to the states of those directly affected by this.

Quoting hercj:

No sir I am referring to the validity of the IPCC report. Not Dr Landsea's own science and as far as politics is concerned he fought back. As I have stated I know him and this was not where he wanted to be but he was given no choice in the matter once he accepted that position on that panel. Go along with what he did not believe, or walk off. He walked off they tried to discredit him and he fought back using the only forum he could. The media.

I know Chris, as well. Great guy.

And, if I remember right, he does have an AGW opinion when it comes to CO2 - warming. But he correctly points out that the historical data does not support all of the works put forth showing TC trends in this or that, from named storms to majors, in the last 100 years. Somewhat like myself, he frequently points out things like the dearth of observations 80 years ago, the changing mission of the NHC, the changing policies of naming short-lived, non-threatening tropical storms, and the changing observation methods over the years.

When Trenberth went into a press conference expounding the increasing TC threat with AGW, BEFORE any conclusions to that effect had been hammered out by that group of the IPCC, Landsea could see that the conclusions were pre-determined.
by the way our tropical wave looks very good and ASCAT caught about half of it and it looks really good this thing will likely become invest 92L very soon



1669. P451
Quoting JamesSA:
That shear does a pretty decent job of pinching off the cut end. Had they not cut into that pipe earlier with the diamond saw, they would likely end up with a greatly reduced flow after making this cut. Too bad.


I've thought about that as well...but looking at that pressure I think it would find a way to force itself through. Any reduced flow would have been welcome of course.

You would have thought early on in all of this they'd have tried crimping the pipes best they could.

1670. beell
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
333 AM EDT THU JUN 3 2010

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS. MAIN DISTURBANCE IN THIS FLOW PATTERN IS A COMPACT UPPER TROUGH/LOW OVER EAST TEXAS...WHICH TRIGGERED THE SQUALL LINE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS UPPER DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO SLIDE VERY SLOWLY EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS KEEPING THE TRI-STATE AREA UNDER A MOIST AND DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES EJECTING FROM THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO ENHANCE LIFT AS WELL AS GENERATE A WEAK SFC TROUGH/LOW
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A WET COUPLE OF DAYS ACROSS THE REGION.


The Northern Gulf rain event......Not good in terms of the Oil Slick however which will be pushed towards the shores of LA/MS/AL/Fl Panhandle over the next few days....


Looks like a pretty decent weathermaker and worthy of some attention today. A slow moving stacked low along the central gulf coast.

Even a slight relaxation of shear close to the coast. Guessing 20 knot winds from the SE veering to SW over the next 48 hrs over the leak site.

In addition to the offshore stuff, a surface boundary in LA along the I-10 corridor to go with the good southeasterly surface flow and modest mid-level winds should support some pretty strong t-storms along the boundary.
Quoting atmoaggie:

I know Chris, as well. Great guy.

And, if I remember right, he does have an AGW opinion when it comes to CO2 - warming. But he correctly points out that the historical data does not support all of the works put forth showing TC trends in this or that, from named storms to majors, in the last 100 years. Somewhat like myself, he frequently points out things like the dearth of observations 80 years ago, the changing mission of the NHC, the changing policies of naming short-lived, non-threatening tropical storms, and the changing observation methods over the years.

When Trenberth went into a press conference expounding the increasing TC threat with AGW, BEFORE any conclusions to that effect had been hammered out by that group of the IPCC, Landsea could see that the conclusions were pre-determined.


What does that have to do with it?

Hes a nice guy - well ok.

He had a problem with the IPCC leadership blaming increased frequency on warming - well it appears so.

With the science OR with the IPCC reports specifically - No not really.
good morning everyone...well looks like orange and gulf shores should be getting it today...the smell is like a gigantic canister of lighter fluid that's the best way i can describe it...yesterday afternoon it was real strong and could be smelt all the way north to Foley....very sad...
1673. guygee
Quoting hercj:

You raise and interesting question. I am still quite frankly trying to figure that out myself. I do not know Dr. Masters but I know many people he does. I think he posts things sometimes here for discussion sake but his own professional opinions escape me at this time. I am sure at some point he will clarify them.
Unless you are suggesting that Dr. Masters' statements on this blog are incongruent with his professional opinions, I think there is little doubt where he stands. He has blogged about his professional opinion numerous times. Let's review just one such quote out of many similar ones:
The Climate Change Storm, Posted by: Jeff Masters, 9:14 PM GMT on April 06, 2007
Quoting Dr. Jeff Masters:

Significant climate change is already occurring, will grow dramatically, and will cause serious disruptions to natural ecosystems and the lives of billions of people world-wide over the coming century. We need to better prepare for the inevitable changes--and attempt to lessen the magnitude of the these changes by reducing greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible. That's the take-home message from today's latest report from the United Nations-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Every six years, the IPCC releases a huge, influential study detailing the state of Earth's climate. Part 1 of the 2007 report, summarizing the science of climate change, was released in February. Today's summary, titled "Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability" addressed the likely impacts of climate change on Earth's ecosystems and people. Not all of the expected changes will be harmful--the IPCC emphasizes that "impacts of future climate change will be mixed across regions" for temperature rises of 1 to 3C above 1990 levels, with the big losers being the poor developing countries. However, if global warming exceeds 2 to 3C, the IPCC states it is very likely that all regions of the globe will suffer increased costs or declining benefits. I believe it is the responsibility of every citizen of the planet to take the 30 minutes needed to read the IPCC summary and familiarize themselves with what the world's top scientists say about the likely impacts of climate change. The scope and severity of the Earth-shaking changes that lie ahead present a breathtakingly formidable challenge for humanity.
1675. srada
Good Morning Everyone

Does anyone think the blob off of the Georgia coast could turn into anything?
Good morning everyone!
1677. hercj
Quoting JFLORIDA:



He objected to "One study has found that while the dominant signal remains that of the significant increases in the values of exposure at risk, once losses are normalised for exposure, there still remains an underlying rising trend"

That is hardly a Alarmist position in that report.


As a matter of fact in 2008 NOAA published:


Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA
Sept. 3, 2008; Last Revised May 5, 2010

Anthropogenic warming over the next century will likely cause hurricanes globally to be more intense (by a few percent on average) and have substantially higher rainfall rates than present-day hurricanes.


What he objected to is the insistence of the IPCC to include in that report was the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones were increasing due to man made global warming. He did at that time and does not now believe this to be the case. The science that you just sighted is one of the reasons, there are others not the least of which he is skeptical about the data that was used for others in the field to reach this conclusion. Let me say here I am an engineer not a scientist. I deal not in theory but in practical application. I am wary of any time the two political parties in this country draw battle lines over a theory. There will be, and has been an unbelievable amount of money spent to try and prove something only that we do not have the ability to prove. My own conclusions aside, my original point was that knowing people that know Jeff Masters I am not at all sure where he exactly stands here. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. I however will try my best in the meantime to build aircraft that fly on coconut oil.
Uhhhh....

He had trouble with the commission's leadership and public statements after 2004 season and Katrina - not so much with the IPCC report(s).


Or at least in his resignation letter he didit state it clearly that he did.

ALSO In the study he put his name on they say are not sure as to frequency but an increase in intensity is highly likely.
2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season: 76% Chance Major Storm to Hit U.S.

The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season will be even more active than feared, leading U.S. forecasters said Wednesday as they predicted 10 hurricanes, five of them major, with a 76 percent likelihood that a major hurricane would hit the U.S. coastline.

The outlook from the Colorado State University team follows predictions by U.S. government scientists for an intense season that could disrupt efforts to contain a huge Gulf of Mexico oil spill and also batter earthquake-ravaged Haiti.

Increasing a previous estimate for a "very active'' season, the leading CSU storm research team founded by hurricane forecast pioneer William Gray said the six-month season beginning on June 1 would likely see 18 named tropical storms.

Of these, CSU saw 10 becoming hurricanes, with five becoming major Category 3 or higher hurricanes with winds above 110 miles per hour.

The CSU scientists increased their forecast from an April 7 prediction of 15 named storms, eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes.

"The probability of a major hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coastline is 76 percent compared with the last-century average of 52 percent,'' said forecaster Phil Klotzbach, who works with Gray.

The CSU team saw a 51 percent chance that a major hurricane would make landfall on the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula, and a 51 percent chance that one would hit the Gulf Coast, from the Florida Panhandle to Brownsville, Texas.

It put the chance of a major hurricane tracking into the Caribbean at 65 percent.

The expected extreme hurricane season this year is seen posing a threat to efforts to control and clean up oil spewing from a ruptured Gulf of Mexico well owned by BP Plc, described by President Barack Obama's administration as the worst environmental disaster in U.S. history.

Experts warn that a storm surge in the Gulf of Mexico -- an abnormal rise in sea level created by a hurricane -- could whip the oil slick and chemicals used in trying to disperse it out of the Gulf and ashore on beaches, vegetation and even homes.




Quoting CaneWarning:


The scariest thing I heard was that this could go on until Christmas.


the last time they tried it in 200 feet of water it went on for nine months. watch rachel maddow show on msnbc, she is kickin butt this week.
There will be, and has been an unbelievable amount of money spent to try and prove something only that we do not have the ability to prove.

There is warming.
CO2 causes warming.
We increased CO2 concentrations.

Those are pretty much universally accepted because of research. Subsequently, I think the details and degrees are worth working out.
Quoting Nolehead:
good morning everyone...well looks like orange and gulf shores should be getting it today...the smell is like a gigantic canister of lighter fluid that's the best way i can describe it...yesterday afternoon it was real strong and could be smelt all the way north to Foley....very sad...


its kinda like in that movie armageddon where they stood on the beach watching the tidal wave come in, isnt it. i feel just like that. the gulf is doomed.
Quoting twhcracker:


the last time they tried it in 200 feet of water it went on for nine months. watch rachel maddow show on msnbc, she is kickin butt this week.


Oh, I love Rachel Maddow. I bet she's really telling the truth about BP these days too.
LOL...This Just In:

The current effort by BP to stop the gusher was the #1 method on their "to do list" after the Deep Horizon took the deep six.

But guess what?

The U.S. government said "NO! Try other methods before you cut that pipe!"

BP told the U.S. Government (and this is all in memos and will be released shortly) that the other methods available had low odds of success.

The U.S. government did not care about the odds.

Now, there's talk of the U.S. Government taking control of BP "in receivership!"

LOL!!! Unbelievable!

Sure there is blame to be put on BP for the accident even happening in the first place, but with these new revelations...who do you blame for ALL THESE DAYS (almost 60 now) of oil gushing from the Gulf floor?

If this latest attempt to stop the leak works, again...it was the #1 idea proposed by BP early on in this disaster, then the U.S. government is totally to be blamed for all the "extra oil" that's out there right now.
Quoting JFLORIDA:
He had trouble with the commission's leadership and public statements after 2004 season and Katrina - not so much with the IPCC report(s).


Or at least in his resignation letter he didit state it clearly that he did.

ALSO In the study he put his name on they say are not sure as to frequency but an increase in intensity is highly likely.


My inital response to you was to show that Dr. Landsea does publish and I have stayed out of this discussion since, untill this post. Nowhere in the article is the phrase "highly likely" used.
Quoting CycloneOz:
LOL...This Just In:

The current effort by BP to stop the gusher was the #1 method on their "to do list" after the Deep Horizon took the deep six.

But guess what?

The U.S. government said "NO! Try other methods before you cut that pipe!"

BP told the U.S. Government (and this is all in memos and will be released shortly) that the other methods available had low odds of success.

The U.S. government did not care about the odds.

Now, there's talk of the U.S. Government taking control of BP "in receivership!"

LOL!!! Unbelievable!

Sure there is blame to be put on BP for the accident even happening in the first place, but with these new revelations...who do you blame for ALL THESE DAYS (almost 60 now) of oil gushing from the Gulf floor?

If this latest attempt to stop the leak, again...the #1 idea proposed by BP early on in this disaster, then the U.S. government is totally to be blamed for all the "extra oil" that's out there right now.


Ummm...source?
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


My inital response to you was to show that Dr. Landsea does publish and I have stayed out of this discussion since, untill this post. Nowhere in the article is the phrase "highly likely" used.


By extension :

Existing modelling studies also consistently project decreases in the globally averaged frequency of tropical cyclones, by 6%u201334%. Balanced against this, higher resolution modelling studies typically project substantial increases in the frequency of the most intense cyclones, and increases of the order of 20% in the precipitation rate within 100 km of the storm centre.


That was mine perhaps incorrect format but "highly likely" (quotes were for my word which should have been added) but heres the mechanics :

"highly likely" (my words) "balancing" "consistently project decreases" as was stated.

Consistently would even indicate stronger wording IMHO
Quoting Neapolitan:


Ummm...source?


The memos in question have been leaked to the press by BP. (I assume in response to the announcement by the Justice Dept. that they were going to go after 'em.)
Quoting P451:


BP should be obligated to slash the prices of their gasoline to the states of those directly affected by this.



then they would make 3 billion profit instead of 6 billion.
I hate to even throw this out but I think advances in modeling may start to show increases in frequency.
As far as the receivership thing goes, there's tons of stuff out there on that already. Here's just one:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-reich/why-obama-should-put-bp-u_b_595346.html
1694. pottery
Quoting CycloneOz:
LOL...This Just In:

The current effort by BP to stop the gusher was the #1 method on their "to do list" after the Deep Horizon took the deep six.

But guess what?

The U.S. government said "NO! Try other methods before you cut that pipe!"

BP told the U.S. Government (and this is all in memos and will be released shortly) that the other methods available had low odds of success.

The U.S. government did not care about the odds.

Now, there's talk of the U.S. Government taking control of BP "in receivership!"

LOL!!! Unbelievable!

Sure there is blame to be put on BP for the accident even happening in the first place, but with these new revelations...who do you blame for ALL THESE DAYS (almost 60 now) of oil gushing from the Gulf floor?

If this latest attempt to stop the leak, again...the #1 idea proposed by BP early on in this disaster, then the U.S. government is totally to be blamed for all the "extra oil" that's out there right now.

All along, (at the risk of being called a "BP Sympathiser") I have felt that the Government has no expertise with this, and should leave the Oil Industry to deal with it. (Yeah, I hear all the "all BP wants is the oil" crap). This problem has no similarity to a Moon landing or a deep-sea movie.
Interference by Administrations all over the world, brought about by pressure from The Masses, has usually ended in tears.
The Admin should take complete control of the defenses to the shoreline and the clean-up and rehabilitation of affected areas etc.
Leave the professionals to stop the leak.
Quoting CycloneOz:
LOL...This Just In:

The current effort by BP to stop the gusher was the #1 method on their "to do list" after the Deep Horizon took the deep six.

But guess what?

The U.S. government said "NO! Try other methods before you cut that pipe!"

BP told the U.S. Government (and this is all in memos and will be released shortly) that the other methods available had low odds of success.

The U.S. government did not care about the odds.

Now, there's talk of the U.S. Government taking control of BP "in receivership!"

LOL!!! Unbelievable!

Sure there is blame to be put on BP for the accident even happening in the first place, but with these new revelations...who do you blame for ALL THESE DAYS (almost 60 now) of oil gushing from the Gulf floor?

If this latest attempt to stop the leak, again...the #1 idea proposed by BP early on in this disaster, then the U.S. government is totally to be blamed for all the "extra oil" that's out there right now.


Our "FINE" U.S. Government which has become a laughing stock to the world....

Good post OZ
Quoting CycloneOz:


The memos in question have been leaked to the press by BP. (I assume in response to the announcement by the Justice Dept. that they were going to go after 'em.)



still no
source
1697. Patrap
(almost 60 now)

How is 45 days 60 ?

Oh,,I see, New Mexico math.

"Splains a Lot Lucy"


The great debate Global Warming. I can come up with facts on both sides of the argument. I am an engineer, that took come meteorology classes as electives. The one thing I took from my classes is sometime around 2010 would be the peak of the hurricane active cycle. All I know is the increase of number of hurricanes and intensities was expected by climatologists in the 90's to rise during this time. I think what we all can agree upon is we all need to do our part in protecting the environment in any way possible.
Quoting Patrap:
(almost 60 now)

How is 45 days 60 ?

Oh,,I se New Mexico math.

"Splains a Lot Lucy"




Just what kind of rip is that you're taking? Your biggest beef is that I "rounded up?"

Get real....
1700. McBill
Quoting Neapolitan:


Ummm...source?


Source?... Source?... He don't need no stinkin' sources.
Quoting StormW:
Good morning!
A little something from Bastardi:

The upper disturbance that is causing the heavy thunderstorms in the western gulf has some reason to be of concern for tropical weather people. We have to watch the area west of Panama to see if it gets drawn nnw into the gulf this weekend. Obviously if low pressure develops independent of that, with the upper low, that is also a concern, but it will be interesting to see if we get another Pacific development, and this time its way into our area of concern is the by moving nnw toward the western gulf, rather than northeast into the Caribbean.

The monster Cyclone PHET off Oman is yet another sign I am on the right track with the hurricane season. This is the 3rd development in the Indian ocean basin this year. When Asia heats more, the ITCZ gets drawn north into the continent ( this is the TRUE MONSOON, RATHER THAN THE RESEARCH GRANT BASED ONE THEY LOOK AT IN THE SOUTHWEST..Let me again state, you should not have up to 12 changes of air masses in a 3 month period in the summer as we see sometimes in the southwest US if you are in a monsoonal circulation. The upper ridge that forms over the rockies in the summer is the "high level heat source" in other words, the lack of wind in the ridge allows the building of heat over the mountains where dewpoints naturally come up in the summer, and convection forms which is mistaken for a monsoon.. the only true monsoon is in August on the central Mexican Pacific coast, where every morning at 2 am a thunderstorm will develop, and every day by 10 am its dissipating... Many summers there are as many air mass changes in Phoenix ( change of dp by morning than 10 degrees in a 24 hour period from one set time to another) as there are in Atlantic City. We dont have research grant money going to the study of the Atlantic City monsoon, though perhaps it would be a good idea to help their casino industry) In any case once the ITCZ is drawn north to over land, the Indian ocean season shuts down. With the cooling Pacific being below normal, it leaves the atlantic to come to life as the further north than normal monsoon means stronger waves further north than normal in Africa, and then their emergence off the African coast. At this time of the year, the waves coming off Africa do not "bloom" fully until further west, but there should be more than passing interest in the Indian Ocean Dipole along with the tropical activity there, for our season. This was outlined to me, though before there was research on the IOD, by Dr. John Lee at Penn State who lived and died by the intensity of the asian monsoon during the last warm AMO period which ended in the 50s., Sadly, when I took tropical, and during the 60s-80s the cold AMO would not allow the kind of vivid relationship we can see now, and I am confident you will see.
Good morning StormW. I was wondering about the blob in the GOM. What is your take on it?
Quoting JFLORIDA:
I hate to even throw this out but I think advances in modeling may start to show increases in frequency.

maybe
and add a real evil smile behind it all.
Quoting McBill:


Source?... Source?... He don't need no stinkin' sources.


He gave the source...

BP memos that were leaked to the press...
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:


He gave the source...

BP memos that were leaked to the press...


The big question is are they going to take the bait and actually report on it.

Recent history says that they will not.
1705. Patrap
Gov. Bobby Jindal urges Obama to get deepwater drilling back quickly


By The Times-Picayune
June 02, 2010, 9:27PM


On Wednesday, Gov. Bobby Jindal sent the following letter to President Obama and Interior Secretary Ken Salazar regarding grave concerns about the administration's decision to place a moratorium on deepwater drilling:

Dear President Obama and Secretary Salazar:

I am writing to express my grave concerns regarding the severe economic impact of a six-month (or longer) suspension of activity at 33 previously permitted deepwater drilling rigs in the Gulf of Mexico, including and in particular the 22 deepwater drilling rigs currently in operation off the Louisiana coast.

Already, Louisiana has suffered severe negative economic and ecological impacts from the BP oil spill. Our seafood industry is experiencing huge economic losses that have only been partially mitigated by a frustratingly slow and inadequate BP claims process. Moreover, our precious wetlands are suffering incalculable, permanent damages, while our tourism industry faces escalating losses.

During one of the most challenging economic periods in decades, the last thing we need is to enact public policies that will certainly destroy thousands of existing jobs while preventing the creation of thousands more.

The Louisiana Department of Economic Development estimates that the active drilling suspension alone will result in a loss of 3,000 to 6,000 Louisiana jobs in the next 2-3 weeks and potentially over 10,000 Louisiana jobs within a few months. If the suspension of active drilling activity continues for an extended period, LED estimates that our state risks losing more than 20,000 existing and potential new Louisiana jobs in the next 12-18 months.

Obviously these losses would come on top of those already generated by the spill and its related effects. Moreover, the announced moratorium of deepwater drilling activity creates a significant risk that many of these drilling platforms would be relocated to other countries -- along with the hundreds of high-paying jobs that they each create.

Additionally, I fully understand the need for strict oversight of deepwater drilling. However, I would ask that the federal government move quickly to ensure that all deepwater drilling is in proper compliance with federal regulation and is conducted safely so that energy production and more importantly, thousands of jobs, are not in limbo.

Thank you in advance for your swift consideration of this request.

Sincerely,

Governor Bobby Jindal
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:


He gave the source...

BP memos that were leaked to the press...


"the press"
is not
a source
Quoting CycloneOz:


The big question is are they going to take the bait and actually report on it.

Recent history says that they will not.


if "they"
haven't reported it
then
How do you
know of it?!
Quoting smarterthanyou:


if "they"
haven't reported it
then
How do you
know of it?!


??? (because I'm smarter than you?)
1709. Patrap
BP says it was unprepared for Gulf oil spill; pipe awaits cut
By The Associated Press
June 03, 2010, 7:45AM


BP's top executive acknowledged Thursday the global oil giant was unprepared to fight a catastrophic deepwater oil spill as engineers were forced yet again to reconfigure plans for executing their latest gambit to control the Gulf of Mexico gusher.

BP PLC planned to use giant shears to cut a pipe a mile below the sea after a diamond-tipped saw became stuck halfway through the job, another frustrating delay in six weeks of failed efforts to stop or at least curtail the worst oil spill in U.S. history. The government's point man for the disaster, Coast Guard Adm. Thad Allen, said on the NBC "Today" show the cut would be made later Thursday.

Once the riser pipe is cut, BP hopes to cap it and start pumping some crude to a surface tanker, which would reduce but not end the spill. The next chance for stopping the flow won't come until two relief wells meant to plug the reservoir for good are finished in August, after an effort to staunch the gusher with heavy mud failed Saturday.

BP Chief Executive Tony Hayward told The Financial Times it was "an entirely fair criticism" to say the company had not been fully prepared for a deepwater oil leak. Hayward called it "low-probability, high-impact" accident.

"What is undoubtedly true is that we did not have the tools you would want in your tool-kit," Hayward said in an interview published in Thursday's edition of the London-based newspaper.

The latest attempt to control the spill, the so-called cut-and-cap method, is considered risky because slicing away a section of the 20-inch-wide riser could remove kinks in the pipe and temporarily increase the flow of oil by as much as 20 percent.

Oil drifted perilously close to the Florida Panhandle's popular sugar-white beaches, and crews on the mainland were doing everything possible to limit the catastrophe.

The Coast Guard's Allen directed BP to pay for five additional sand barrier projects in Louisiana. BP said Thursday the project will cost it about $360 million, on top of about $990 million it had spent as of its latest expense update Tuesday on response and clean up, grants to four Gulf coast states and claims from people and companies hurt by the spill.

As the edge of the slick drifted within seven miles of Pensacola's beaches, emergency workers rushed to link the last in a miles-long chain of booms designed to fend off the oil. They were slowed by thunderstorms and wind before the weather cleared in the afternoon.

Forecasters said the oil would probably wash up by Friday, threatening a delicate network of islands, bays and white-sand beaches that are a haven for wildlife and a major tourist destination dubbed the Redneck Riviera.

"We are doing what we can do, but we cannot change what has happened," said John Dosh, emergency director for Escambia County, which includes Pensacola.

The effect on wildlife has grown, too.

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service reported 522 dead birds -- at least 38 of them oiled -- along the Gulf coast states, and more than 80 oiled birds have been rescued. It's not clear exactly how many of the deaths can be attributed to the spill.

Dead birds and animals found during spills are kept as evidence in locked freezers until investigations and damage assessments are complete, according to Teri Frady, a spokeswoman for the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration.

"This includes strict chain-of-custody procedures and long-term locked storage until the investigative and damage assessment phases of the spill are complete," she wrote in an e-mail.

As the oil drifted closer to Florida, beachgoers in Pensacola waded into the gentle waves, cast fishing lines and sunbathed, even as a two-man crew took water samples. One of the men said they were hired by BP to collect samples to be analyzed for tar and other pollutants.

A few feet away, Martha Feinstein, 65, of Milton, Fla., pondered the fate of the beach she has been visiting for years. "You sit on the edge of your seat and you wonder where it's going," she said. "It's the saddest thing."

Officials said the slick sighted offshore consisted in part of "tar mats" about 500 feet by 2,000 feet in size.

County officials set up the booms to block oil from reaching inland waterways but planned to leave beaches unprotected because they are too difficult to defend against the action of the waves and because they are easier to clean up.

"It's inevitable that we will see it on the beaches," said Keith Wilkins, deputy chief of neighborhood and community services for Escambia County.

Florida's beaches play a crucial role in the state's tourism industry. At least 60 percent of vacation spending in the state during 2008 was in beachfront cities. Worried that reports of oil would scare tourists away, state officials are promoting interactive Web maps and Twitter feeds to show travelers -- particularly those from overseas -- how large the state is and how distant their destinations may be from the spill.
1710. Patrap
Quoting smarterthanyou:


if "they"
haven't reported it
then
How do you
know of it?!


LOL..

He's "Low and nimble"..

Dontcha know ?


Also nrtiwlnvragn - Im not sure that report is indicative of climate research or an assessment of current research.

One thing I find also interesting is its second source :

2. IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (eds Solomon, S. et al.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2007).
Quoting CycloneOz:


??? (because I'm smarter than you?)


'recent history'
suggests
otherwise
Quoting Patrap:


LOL..

He's "Low and nimble"..

Dontcha know ?


Keep 'em coming...don't stop.
Quoting smarterthanyou:


"the press"
is not
a source


unless it fits "your" agenda right?

ok...
1716. Patrap
Times-Picayune reporters Becky Mowbray and Jaquetta White explain what's happening with BP's latest approach to the oil spill












Quoting smarterthanyou:


'recent history'
suggests
otherwise


My comeback was better than yours :D
Quoting smarterthanyou:


'recent history'
suggests
otherwise
LOL
1719. hercj
Quoting CycloneOz:


Just what kind of rip is that you're taking? Your biggest beef is that I "rounded up?"

Get real....

Quoting pottery:

All along, (at the risk of being called a "BP Sympathiser") I have felt that the Government has no expertise with this, and should leave the Oil Industry to deal with it. (Yeah, I hear all the "all BP wants is the oil" crap). This problem has no similarity to a Moon landing or a deep-sea movie.
Interference by Administrations all over the world, brought about by pressure from The Masses, has usually ended in tears.
The Admin should take complete control of the defenses to the shoreline and the clean-up and rehabilitation of affected areas etc.
Leave the professionals to stop the leak.

Yeah Im with you, if this is going to be solved and it will be I am confident of this it will be done by engineers who will work on the fly and get this thing caped. It will NOT be by politicians making speeches or threats of prosecution. We can talk about all that later cap the damn hole.
Quoting StormW:


Just some heavy T'storms associated with the low to the NW. Wouldn't look for anything, unless that low dips into the GOMEX and shear lets up.
Thank you as always
Quoting Patrap:
Gov. Bobby Jindal urges Obama to get deepwater drilling back quickly


By The Times-Picayune
June 02, 2010, 9:27PM


On Wednesday, Gov. Bobby Jindal sent the following letter to President Obama and Interior Secretary Ken Salazar regarding grave concerns about the administration's decision to place a moratorium on deepwater drilling:

Dear President Obama and Secretary Salazar:

I am writing to express my grave concerns regarding the severe economic impact of a six-month (or longer) suspension of activity at 33 previously permitted deepwater drilling rigs in the Gulf of Mexico, including and in particular the 22 deepwater drilling rigs currently in operation off the Louisiana coast.

Already, Louisiana has suffered severe negative economic and ecological impacts from the BP oil spill. Our seafood industry is experiencing huge economic losses that have only been partially mitigated by a frustratingly slow and inadequate BP claims process. Moreover, our precious wetlands are suffering incalculable, permanent damages, while our tourism industry faces escalating losses.

During one of the most challenging economic periods in decades, the last thing we need is to enact public policies that will certainly destroy thousands of existing jobs while preventing the creation of thousands more.

The Louisiana Department of Economic Development estimates that the active drilling suspension alone will result in a loss of 3,000 to 6,000 Louisiana jobs in the next 2-3 weeks and potentially over 10,000 Louisiana jobs within a few months. If the suspension of active drilling activity continues for an extended period, LED estimates that our state risks losing more than 20,000 existing and potential new Louisiana jobs in the next 12-18 months.

Obviously these losses would come on top of those already generated by the spill and its related effects. Moreover, the announced moratorium of deepwater drilling activity creates a significant risk that many of these drilling platforms would be relocated to other countries -- along with the hundreds of high-paying jobs that they each create.

Additionally, I fully understand the need for strict oversight of deepwater drilling. However, I would ask that the federal government move quickly to ensure that all deepwater drilling is in proper compliance with federal regulation and is conducted safely so that energy production and more importantly, thousands of jobs, are not in limbo.

Thank you in advance for your swift consideration of this request.

Sincerely,

Governor Bobby Jindal


I'm scratching my head over this one...
1722. ncstorm
Quoting hercj:


Yeah Im with you, if this is going to be solved and it will be I am confident of this it will be done by engineers who will work on the fly and get this thing caped. It will NOT be by politicians making speeches or threats of prosecution. We can talk about all that later cap the damn hole.


the SO CALLED ENGINEERS havent done anything but INCREASE the flow of oil into the gulf..yall act like we should leave this up to BP but they havent accomplished a dang thang but killing more wildlife..destroying the barrier islands, and devastate the economy and people's way of life along the gulf coast..its easy to sit behind a computer and blame the government for everything (fox news) but the buck stops at BP..not the government..
1723. Prgal
New blog
Quoting CycloneOz:
LOL...This Just In:

The current effort by BP to stop the gusher was the #1 method on their "to do list" after the Deep Horizon took the deep six.

But guess what?

The U.S. government said "NO! Try other methods before you cut that pipe!"

BP told the U.S. Government (and this is all in memos and will be released shortly) that the other methods available had low odds of success.

The U.S. government did not care about the odds.

Now, there's talk of the U.S. Government taking control of BP "in receivership!"

LOL!!! Unbelievable!

Sure there is blame to be put on BP for the accident even happening in the first place, but with these new revelations...who do you blame for ALL THESE DAYS (almost 60 now) of oil gushing from the Gulf floor?

If this latest attempt to stop the leak works, again...it was the #1 idea proposed by BP early on in this disaster, then the U.S. government is totally to be blamed for all the "extra oil" that's out there right now.



I would assume that this was the cause for concern on the Government side of things, a valid one too seeing how this cut and cap isn't going so well. 20% is a large increase in oil. The govt. made the right call, IMO.

The latest attempt to control the spill, the so-called cut-and-cap method, is considered risky because slicing away a section of the 20-inch-wide riser could remove kinks in the pipe and temporarily increase the flow of oil by as much as 20 percent.
1725. Patrap
..pssssst

New Entry Sports Fans

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog addremove

Last Updated: 9:00 AM CDT on June 03, 2010 — Last Comment: 9:05 AM CDT on June 03, 2010
CSU predicts highly active hurricane season; Cyclone Phet approaching Oman

Posted by: JeffMasters, 9:00 AM CDT on June 03, 2010
1726. hercj
Quoting ncstorm:


the SO CALLED ENGINEERS havent done anything but INCREASE the flow of oil into the gulf..yall act like we should leave this up to BP but they havent accomplished a dang thang but killing more wildlife..destroying the barrier islands, and devastate the economy and people's way of life along the gulf coast..its easy to sit behind a computer and blame the government for everything (fox news) but the buck stops at BP..not the government..

Not if the Govt has been handcuffing and stonewalling this from the beginning. Why would they do that you ask? Why indeed!!!!
I ask because the only Google hits I find on "BP memo" are those talking about the May 25 one in which they compare their employees to the Three Little Pigs as a way to justify not instituting stronger spill-prevention measures (http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2010-05-25/shocking-bp-memo-and-the-oil-spill-in-the -gulf/)

Anyway, back to the weather...
I don't exactly remember because it goes back and forth so much. But I could swear that BP posted odds have gone down with every attempt they have made. I have seen statements that the government has made that BP is in charge they are the experts, for which they have been roundly criticized. Watching 60 minutes with the father and brother of one deceased unlike RIG who held a memorial service for the fallen they have not received even a phone call from BP. So just remember all you BP lovers that oil and smell you have coming up on your shores is probably just leakage from the gulf floor. And if you get sick from it. Try cooking your food. And please tell the bad government to take the boot heel of there pour CEO's neck he wants his life back screw the rest of you.
Quoting CycloneOz:
LOL...This Just In:

The current effort by BP to stop the gusher was the #1 method on their "to do list" after the Deep Horizon took the deep six.

But guess what?

The U.S. government said "NO! Try other methods before you cut that pipe!"

BP told the U.S. Government (and this is all in memos and will be released shortly) that the other methods available had low odds of success.

The U.S. government did not care about the odds.

Now, there's talk of the U.S. Government taking control of BP "in receivership!"

LOL!!! Unbelievable!

Sure there is blame to be put on BP for the accident even happening in the first place, but with these new revelations...who do you blame for ALL THESE DAYS (almost 60 now) of oil gushing from the Gulf floor?

If this latest attempt to stop the leak works, again...it was the #1 idea proposed by BP early on in this disaster, then the U.S. government is totally to be blamed for all the "extra oil" that's out there right now.


BP is the root cause of the problem - PERIOD. The government doesn't have the resources to deal with a 5k deep gusher. Only oil companies have the technology to deal with this issue. Quit trying to somehow link this to the government and make it political. The free market will take care of itself, right? We don't need the "socialist" government getting involved do we? I'm just holding you to your own standards...anyways, you don't care about the environment, remember? You pride yourself on "raping" the environment if my memory serves me correctly. Your friend,

Yin, or is it Yang?

Morning Storm, how r u today? I have been watching the wave at 50w 10n and have noticed considerable change over the last 6hrs, with sst at 30 and in a moist inviroment. I'm interested to know what info you could share on it.
Location: Barbados


Quoting StormW:
Good morning!
afternoon,when this gets area(feature over east tx) in the GOM its going to make the spill come ashore 10X what we've seen thus far,its got good vorticity at850mb and needs to be watched,as sheer in the extreme north GOM may go below20kts
In 2005, TropicalStorm Arlene reached near-hurricane strength in the Gulf of Mexico on June10th. And passed near what is now the DeepHorizon spill area before making landfall at the extreme western end of the Florida panhandle on June11th.
Comparisons with the day before TropicalStorm Arlene began spinning on 8June2005

3Jun2010

7Jun2005

3June2010

7Jun2005

3June2010


Other major US-affecting offshore blowouts averaged 8,000to10,000barrels per day over 10days at Santa Barbara, and 11,000to12,000barrels per day over 295days at Ixtoc I.
Initial spill rate from Ixtoc I into the Gulf of Mexico was ~30,000barrels per day.
The ExxonValdez wreck spilled ~11million gallons or ~262,000barrels in total.

Three different methodologies used by UnitedStatesGeologicalSurvey assessment teams have independently arrived at a minimum spill rate of 12,000barrels per day:
the surface survey team came up with 15,500plus-or-minus3500 barrels per day;
the plume velocity team came up with 18,500plus-or-minus6500 barrels per day;
and the third team's study remains incomplete and its methodology unannounced.

Using the agreed-upon 12,000barrels per day minimum, the DeepwaterHorizon will have spilled two times as much as the ExxonValdez a bit after noon on 3June2010
Using the 17,000barrels per day average of two studies, the DeepwaterHorizon will have spilled three times as much as the ExxonValdez before dawn on 6June2010
http://www.stormjunkie.com/xtreme/11 Goin' Fishin' Tonight mp3.mp3