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As Bad as it Gets: Fire Conditions in Australia; Raymond Weakens, Deluging Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:21 PM GMT on October 22, 2013

Sydney, Australia and the Blue Mountains to its west are bracing for weather conditions that will bring extreme fire danger, with temperatures on Wednesday that are expected to be in the upper 80s, humidities less than 10%, and sustained winds of 15 -25 mph, gusting to 40 mph. These conditions will be "about as bad as it gets", said Shane Fitzsimmons, a fire official for the region. Insurance claims from the huge fires that have ravaged areas just west of Sydney over the past week are already set to exceed $97 million (U.S. dollars), according to The Insurance Council of Australia, even though the worst-hit areas have not been assessed yet. This price tag already makes the disaster Australia's fifth most expensive fire on record, according to EM-DAT, the international disaster database. Australia's just had its hottest September on record, and the 12-month period ending in August 2013 set a record for the hottest 12-month period in Australian history. Australia's warmest summer and 3rd warmest winter on record occurred during this 12-month period.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a new post on the history of Australian wild fires. The most expensive and deadly fires in Australian history occurred on Black Saturday, February 7, 2009. Those fires killed 173 people, injured 414, and destroyed 2,029 homes, causing $1.3 billion in damage.

Wunderground member AussieStorm posted this link to a photoalbum of fire pictures taken by residents of the Sydney area.


Figure 1. On October 21, 2013, dozens of wildfires continued to burn in New South Wales, Australia. The fires had already destroyed more than 200 homes, and Australian authorities were concerned that hot, windy weather could exacerbate the situation. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite acquired this image at 2:25 p.m. local time (3:25 Universal Time) on October 21. Red outlines indicate hot spots where MODIS detected unusually warm surface temperatures associated with fire.The largest fire shown here is the State Mine fire, which was burning in the Blue Mountains. The fire had burned more than 42,750 hectares, according to the New South Wales Rural Fire Service. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

Hurricane Raymond weakens, but still drenching Mexico
Hurricane Raymond continues to spin just offshore of Acapulco, Mexico, as a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds. As of 11 am EDT Tuesday, Raymond was stationary, centered about 135 miles west-southwest of Acapulco. Raymond brought 5.67" of rain Saturday through Monday to Acapulco, where a Hurricane Watch is posted. Raymond is expected to bring heavy rains of up to 12" to the coast, and this is an area where heavy rains are definitely most unwelcome. Hurricane Manuel hit this region of Mexico with extreme torrential rains when it made landfall on September 15, triggering deadly mudslides and flooding that left 169 people dead or missing and caused $4.2 billion in damage. According to EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database, this was the second most expensive weather-related disaster in Mexican history, behind the $6 billion in damage (2013 dollars) wrought by Hurricane Wilma in October 2005.

Raymond is in an area with weak steering currents, and is likely to show some erratic movement until Wednesday, when a ridge of high pressure is forecast to build in and force the storm west-southwestwards, away from the coast. Recent satellite loops show a weakening trend, as the southeast eyewall is now missing, and the storm's heavy thunderstorms have diminished in intensity. This weakening may be due to the colder waters from below that Raymond's winds have churned to the surface. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft will investigate Raymond on Tuesday afternoon.

Wunderblogger Lee Grenci has a detailed look at the ocean temperatures and steering flow affecting Raymond.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Raymond, taken at 3:30 pm EDT on October 21, 2013. At the time, Raymond was at peak strength, a Category 3 storm with winds of 125 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Lorenzo forms in the Middle Atlantic
The 12th Atlantic named storm of 2013, Tropical Storm Lorenzo, was born on Monday afternoon. Lorenzo's formation brings this year's Atlantic tally to 12 named storms, which is one more than the long term average. However, Lorenzo is going to be one of those weak, short-lived tropical storms that likely would have been missed before satellites came along in the 1960s. There have been three other weak, short-lived tropical storms in 2013 that stayed far out to sea that may have been missed before satellites came along--Dorian, Erin, and Jerry. There has been a large increase in the number of "shorties"--Atlantic tropical storms lasting two days or less--since the 1950s, as discussed by Villarini et al. (2011), in their paper, Is the recorded increase in short‐duration North Atlantic tropical storms spurious?

Satellite loops show that Lorenzo has a modest area of heavy thunderstorms, which are pushed to the east side of Lorenzo's center of circulation by strong upper-level winds out of the southwest. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, but is expected to increase to the high range by Tuesday night, giving Lorenzo a rather short life. The storm will not be a threat to any land areas.


Figure 3. Latest satellite image of Lorenzo.

Typhoon Francisco weakening, likely to miss Japan
Typhoon Francisco has steadily weakened since becoming Earth's third Category 5 storm of 2013 on Saturday, and is now a Category 1 storm with 85 mph winds. Francisco is now traversing a large cool patch of ocean up to 2°C colder than the surrounding waters, left behind by the churning action of Typhoon Wipha last week. By the time Francisco makes its closest approach to Japan on Thursday and Friday, it will be a tropical storm undergoing transition to an extratropical storm. However, the latest computer model guidance keeps Francisco well offshore from Japan, and the storm's heaviest rains will miss the country. This is good news for Japan, which is still cleaning up from the record rains that Typhoon Wipha brought last week.

Impressive Typhoon Lekima hits Category 4 strength
The Western Pacific has made up for a slow start to its typhoon season, and has now cranked out its fifth major Category 3 or stronger typhoon of the month. Typhoon Lekima is an impressive Category 4 typhoon with 145 mph winds, intensifying over the warm waters of the Western Pacific about 1,500 miles southeast of Japan. Satellite loops show that Lekima is another very well-organized typhoon with a prominent eye surrounded by a solid ring of eyewall clouds with very cold cloud tops. Lekima is predicted to reach Category 5 strength on Thursday, but will likely recurve to the northeast without affecting any land areas.


Figure 4. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Francisco (left) and Typhoon Lekima (right), taken at approximately 02 UTC on October 22, 2013. At the time, both typhoons had top winds near 85 mph. Image credit: NASA.

One year ago today: Tropical Depression Eighteen forms
One year ago today, here is what I wrote in my blog post, Tropical Depression 18 forms south of Jamaica: "Tropical Depression Eighteen is here, and appears poised to become Tropical Storm Sandy by early Tuesday morning. TD 18 is over very warm waters of 29.5°C, is in a moist environment, and has light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots. These conditions are very favorable for intensification, and TD 18's heavy thunderstorms are steadily organizing into curved spiral bands….It is unclear at this point whether or not the trough pulling TD 18 to the north will be strong enough to pull the storm all the way out to sea to the northeast; a very complicated steering environment will develop late this week, and it is possible that a narrow ridge of high pressure could build in over TD 18 and force the storm to the west-northwest, with a potential threat to the Northwestern Bahamas and U.S. East Coast by Saturday, as predicted by the ECMWF model."


Figure 5. Morning satellite image of Tropical Depression Eighteen on October 22, 2012.

Jeff Masters

Fire Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

NSW RFS ‏@NSWRFS
Parts of Sydney have now reached the Extreme fire danger conditions that were predicted for today.
Quoting 491. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I think the weather enterprise is generally composed of more guys than girls. That isn't to say there aren't any girls...there are plenty...just there are a lot more guys. Like football.


The problem is that our society pushes girls to pursue meaningless aspects of pop culture rather than something of substance. Not to say that isn't true for guys as well, but God forbid a girl wants to be scientist, that makes her geek, and if you're a geek, you aren't stooping to the obsessed object of male pleasure that a girl is expected to be.
Checked out your blog just now, Nathan. I did get a laugh, just as you predicted. :P


A picture from the air of the Gateshead Fire in Lake Macquarie. Numerous crews from the NSWRFS and FRNSW are working with the assistance of water bombing helicopters to bring the fire under control
aussie you may be interested . the 24 hours of reality (al gores gw ) is going to cover Australia in about 10 min
Raymond's abrupt weakening was a result of cold water upwelling. SSTs under the center have fallen below 26C.

It's killing itself.

covering the australia fires now on 24 hours of reality the cost of carbon


ABCNews24 ABC News 24
Photo: Live shot from the ABC helicopter of #nswfires over #Springwood. #ABCNews24 has continuing coverage

Lekima. Strongest TC of 2013 so far.
71 fires across NSW, 29 uncontained. #nswfires #SydneyFires 3 Emergency Warnings: Springwood, Minmi, Gateshead.
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAYMOND INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
1100 PM PDT TUE OCT 22 2013

...RAYMOND STILL STATIONARY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 101.9W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
Quoting 510. AussieStorm:
71 fires across NSW, 29 uncontained. #nswfires #SydneyFires 3 Emergency Warnings: Springwood, Minmi, Gateshead.
I wish you guys luck.

Seems odd that there would be bush fires at this time of year. Aren't they are more typical around the height of summer?


As for Lekima, I wouldn't be surprised if (ever) a recon plane flies through and reports >900 mbar pressures and higher wind speeds.
Quoting MoltenIce:
I wish you guys luck.

Seems odd that there would be bush fires at this time of year. Aren't they are more typical around the height of summer?

As Dr Masters said in his blog post. A warmer than normal Winter and warmest September have let to an early start to the fire season.
Google has a public alert map showing all the fires.

Link
515. VR46L
Quoting 502. Jedkins01:


The problem is that our society pushes girls to pursue meaningless aspects of pop culture rather than something of substance. Not to say that isn't true for guys as well, but God forbid a girl wants to be scientist, that makes her geek, and if you're a geek, you aren't stooping to the obsessed object of male pleasure that a girl is expected to be.


Twenty years ago , when I was in school making my collage choices . I was encouraged to read the more Social and Arts subjects .Even though I always had more of an interest and was better at psychical science . I don't know if it was sexism , but I do know at my school encouraged females towards then more female subjects.

I don't know about the obsessed object of male pleasure that a girl is expected to be. I have found some men like pretty smart ladies but the guy has to be secure about his own intelligence ... If they are not , Jealousy and put downs become the norm .... JMO
EP, 17, 2013102306, , BEST, 0, 161N, 1018W, 65, 987, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 10, 20, 0, 1007, 120, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, RAYMOND, D,
AL, 13, 2013102306, , BEST, 0, 296N, 495W, 45, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 60, 40, 40, 1016, 200, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, LORENZO, M,
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LORENZO ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013
500 AM AST WED OCT 23 2013

...LORENZO MAINTAINING STRENGTH BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 49.2W
ABOUT 940 MI...1515 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
TROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013
500 AM AST WED OCT 23 2013

A TRMM PASS FROM 0247Z NICELY SHOWED THE SEPARATION OF THE LOW- AND
MID-LEVEL CLOUD FEATURES DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. DESPITE THE
SHEAR...LORENZO IS MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION AND THE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE T3.0...45 KT. AN ASCAT
PASS FROM 00Z MISSED THE CENTER BUT DID INDICATE THAT
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS DO NOT EXTEND VERY FAR IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR WILL
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE SHARPLY DECREASING...
HOWEVER BY THAT POINT LORENZO SHOULD BE MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER
WATERS. CONSEQUENTLY...A STEADY WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED.
LORENZO SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS...AND WITH
ANY LUCK...SOONER THAN THAT.

THE TRACK FORECAST THINKING IS UNCHANGED. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING
EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. AS THE SHEAR INCREASES
AND THE DEEP CONVECTION SEPARATES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...A TURN
TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINLY BLENDS THE
GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE AND IS JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 29.6N 49.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 30.0N 48.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 30.6N 47.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 31.6N 46.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 32.7N 45.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
BULLETIN
HURRICANE RAYMOND ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
200 AM PDT WED OCT 23 2013

...RAYMOND STILL MEANDERING BUT EXPECTED TO PULL AWAY FROM MEXICO
LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 101.9W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
200 AM PDT WED OCT 23 2013

SATELLITE DATA SHOW THAT THE STRUCTURE OF RAYMOND HAS DEGRADED A
LITTLE TONIGHT. THE EYE IS NO LONGER DISCERNABLE IN THE LATEST
MICROWAVE IMAGES...AND BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME LESS DEFINED
OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. THIS DEGRADED
APPEARANCE COULD BE THE RESULT OF COOL WATER THAT HAS BEEN UPWELLED
BENEATH THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 65 KT BASED
ON THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS...BUT THIS ESTIMATE IS PROBABLY
GENEROUS. SOME WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO DUE TO WESTERLY SHEAR...AND THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
DURING THAT TIME. BEYOND 24 HOURS...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN
WHILE RAYMOND MOVES OVER WARM WATER. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW
THE CYCLONE TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND PLACES MORE WEIGHT ON THE DYNAMICAL-STATISTICAL
AIDS AND TRENDS IN THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

RAYMOND HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AS IT
REMAINS LOCATED IN WEAK STEERING BETWEEN A TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST
AND A RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE TO EXPAND TO THE NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS PATTERN WILL FINALLY CAUSE RAYMOND TO MOVE
WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM MEXICO LATER TODAY. A TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST IS PREDICTED IN 4 TO 5 DAYS WHEN RAYMOND REACHES
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED
A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 16.0N 101.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 15.8N 102.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 15.5N 104.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 15.3N 105.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 15.1N 107.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 14.6N 110.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 14.5N 114.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 28/0600Z 16.0N 117.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
My LackoHurricaneophobia is getting almost unbearable.

Does anyone have any meds they could recommend, besides Xanax?
The UN Climate Change Chief has weighed in on NSW fires with a dire warning
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's 54 degrees with a dew point of 50, so humidity has dropped to 87%.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: berry breakfast pizza, zucchini and yellow squash pancakes, Cinnamon French Toast Casserole, French Toast Roll-Ups, Cheesecake Burritos with strawberry topping, Apple slices dipped in pancake batter & cooked on the griddle with cinnamon & nutmeg, omelets with cheese, mushrooms, peppers and dice ham or bacon, thick slices fried honey ham, Slow-Poached Eggs with Shrimp and cheesy Grits, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!
Good Morning Folks!...........................
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
455 AM EDT WED OCT 23 2013

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830 -850-853-856-870-
873-876-240900-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
455 AM EDT WED OCT 23 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT TODAY. WHILE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT...NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT TODAY. THIS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT AS SEAS CLIMB TO 6 OR 7 FEET WELL OFFSHORE.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE NATURE COAST. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF THURSDAY WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AND
SEAS OF 6 TO 7 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SOME OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL STILL BE AROUND 15 KNOTS OR SO
WITH CHOPPY SEAS AT TIMES.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN LOW HUMIDITIES EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

JILLSON
530. VR46L
Good Morning folks !

For Giggles

RAYMOND Graphics Archive
Good morning! Some light snow showers in the vicinity of me! Temperature of 33 degrees, should support flurries if they come this way!
Morning all.

A mist going on here. I can't tell if it's rain or snow!
534. VR46L
Good News on Francisco



Lovely Modis Image

good morning just praying we get some swell here in e cen fl. been a slow yr weather? two days in a row with heavy rain right at dark
IMAGE OF THE DAY: A FIRENADO IS SPOTTED IN THE VICINITY OF HUNGARY.



Firenados are the same as regular tornadoes mechanic-wise, just fire gets wrapped into the clouds, creating this blazing, spinning inferno.
Quoting 523. OracleDeAtlantis:
My LackoHurricaneophobia is getting almost unbearable.

Does anyone have any meds they could recommend, besides Xanax?


Go on a trip to the western pacific.You won't have to worry about lackohurricaneaphobia over there. :)
Quoting 515. VR46L:


Twenty years ago , when I was in school making my collage choices . I was encouraged to read the more Social and Arts subjects .Even though I always had more of an interest and was better at psychical science . I don't know if it was sexism , but I do know at my school encouraged females towards then more female subjects.

I don't know about the obsessed object of male pleasure that a girl is expected to be. I have found some men like pretty smart ladies but the guy has to be secure about his own intelligence ... If they are not , Jealousy and put downs become the norm .... JMO

When I attended high school (70's), my senior advisor/counselor (male) advised me that although I was graduating at top of my class, I was really not eligible for any scholarships because I was female, white and not an athlete. He further told me (and I kid you not), "Besides you are only going to college to find a husband." Wish I knew then what I know now. Would have gotten him fired! Wennt to college anyhow and diid not meet my ex at college. I hope times have changed and young women are being encouraged to do more than become teachers or nurses.
Quoting 526. aislinnpaps:
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's 54 degrees with a dew point of 50, so humidity has dropped to 87%.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: berry breakfast pizza, zucchini and yellow squash pancakes, Cinnamon French Toast Casserole, French Toast Roll-Ups, Cheesecake Burritos with strawberry topping, Apple slices dipped in pancake batter & cooked on the griddle with cinnamon & nutmeg, omelets with cheese, mushrooms, peppers and dice ham or bacon, thick slices fried honey ham, Slow-Poached Eggs with Shrimp and cheesy Grits, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!

YUM! Do you have any receipes toshare for some of tese goodies. My tummy is rumbly just reading your post!
Quoting 524. Guysgal:
The UN Climate Change Chief has weighed in on NSW fires with a dire warning


uh oh here we go. there was a time when one only needed to debunk a new theory once or twice or so, but not nowadays. betting good money that though i missed it, the 'UN climate change chief is going to blame this on human activity especially the burning of fossil fuels. it would be my privilege to deny the UN any power for their building and transportation that comes from fossil fuels. if they truly believed in this stuff they put out, they would have no problem with it.
Quoting 536. Torito:
IMAGE OF THE DAY: A FIRENADO IS SPOTTED IN THE VICINITY OF HUNGARY.



Firenados are the same as regular tornadoes mechanic-wise, just fire gets wrapped into the clouds, creating this blazing, spinning inferno.


Firenado are really cool.
Could you imagine an EF5, 2 mile wide firenado?

Most the firenadoes I've seen would be EF0.
i digress, but i was reading the article on the difference in storm surges between Camille and Katrina. is there any way to tell what the tides were at landfall?
Quoting Guysgal:
The UN Climate Change Chief has weighed in on NSW fires with a dire warning


I am actually on the side of our Prime Minister Tony Abbot with this one. Prime Minister Tony Abbott said and rejected the connection saying “fire is a part of the Australian experience”.

"Climate change is real, as I've often said, and we should take strong action against it.

“But these fires are certainly not a function of climate change - they’re just a function of life in Australia,” he said.

Does UN climate chief Christiana Figueres know what the real cause of these bushfires are?

It's been caused by 3-4 years of La Nina and neutral conditions which kicked off in late 2009 with TC Laurence. 2010/11 saw the Brisbane and SE Queensland floods. 2011/12 saw the Northern NSW floods and Sydney floods. 2012/13 saw TS Oswald cause flooding from Far northern Queensland all the way down to SE New South Wales and northern Victoria. What this meant was the undergrowth was able to build up and the leaf litter also able to grow. Also rain during the normal hazard reduction season meant little was done. Put this and all the "right" condition like today and also last Thursday and also idiots that light the fires in these conditions and you get uncontrollable bushfires. At least once or twice a decade we get these bad bushfire season. I can remember 1994 and 1999 then 2003 and 2006 all these years were bad bushfire season. Heck, 1994 Sydney was practically isolated from the rest of Australia except by air travel due to bushfires burning in and around the Greater Sydney Metropolitan Area. So for the UN climate chief Christiana Figueres to come out and say that while the latest fires raging west of Sydney could not yet be linked to global warming, there was “absolutely” a connection between wildfires and rising temperatures as total hogwash.
544. VR46L
Kind of interesting IMO ... See Francisco Dying after eating air


Click on image for loop


Quoting 540. panthan63:


uh oh here we go. there was a time when one only needed to debunk a new theory once or twice or so, but not nowadays. betting good money that though i missed it, the 'UN climate change chief is going to blame this on human activity especially the burning of fossil fuels. it would be my privilege to deny the UN any power for their building and transportation that comes from fossil fuels. if they truly believed in this stuff they put out, they would have no problem with it.
Well, "debunking" a very valid, widely researched, strenuously-tested, and almost unanimously accepted scientific theory takes far more than a handful of folks shouting that they don't believe it. But at any rate, the current massive fires in Australia come after the hottest September on record for Australia, which itself followed Australia's warmest winter on record, which came after Australia's hottest summer on record, which was part of Australia's warmest 12 months on record, which contained, Australia's warmest day, week and month on record, and which appears likely to lead to Australia's warmest calendar year on record. I don't know that anyone will "blame" such an unprecedented chain of events of GW, but one would have to be pretty disconnected--or willfully blind to highly visual evidence--to not see that things aren't the way they used to be.
Both GFS & Euro ensembles are showing a possible hurricane in the NW Caribbean in 10 days. Long ways out but something to watch for sure.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Firenado are really cool.
Could you imagine an EF5, 2 mile wide firenado?

Most the firenadoes I've seen would be EF0.




Good morning...

Good Morning Folks.One word in terms of the Atlantic Basin this morning; Sheer:




Quoting 549. weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning Folks.One word in terms of the Atlantic Basin this morning; Sheer:




Shear for now. The the first week of November looks interesting as the MJO will be in full swing across our basin.

Quoting 259. Torito:
IMAGE OF THE DAY (I am going to start doing this as often as possible now.)



Crazy weather above! A Tornado reflects a rainbow off of itself while another rainbow appears to the right of the tornado. Hard to believe this actually happens in reality!


You sure that isnt shopped?
Quoting 551. StormTrackerScott:
Shear for now. The the first week of November looks interesting as the MJO will be in full swing across our basin.

thanks for your update on the MJO!!
Quoting 529. LargoFl:
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
455 AM EDT WED OCT 23 2013

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-0 65-GMZ830 -850-853-856-870-
873-876-240900-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
455 AM EDT WED OCT 23 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT TODAY. WHILE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT...NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT TODAY. THIS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT AS SEAS CLIMB TO 6 OR 7 FEET WELL OFFSHORE.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE NATURE COAST. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF THURSDAY WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS AND
SEAS OF 6 TO 7 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SOME OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT WILL STILL BE AROUND 15 KNOTS OR SO
WITH CHOPPY SEAS AT TIMES.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN LOW HUMIDITIES EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

JILLSON
Yesterdays 60% should have been at night. I am not so sure about the front just racing through either.

wind shear of -100 knots wow!!
It appears that Lekima is holding on its Cat 5 classification with no observable deterioration of organisation.
The Aussie Met ENSO Neutral forecast from yesterday; their Summer = Our (US) Winter:

An ENSO-neutral summer most likely
Issued on Tuesday 22 October 2013 | Product Code
IDCKGEWWOO

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has remained neutral since mid-2012,with all atmospheric and oceanic indicators of ENSO presently within neutral bounds. International climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology suggest that the neutral ENSO-pattern will persist through the coming summer.

Here are some of the analog Winter patterns we typically see for the US during Enso Neutral Winters; we have too keep an eye on this through the Spring to see if we get any unusual anomalies over the next several months:

ENSO-neutral
 and winter weather patterns


Then theres all of the ENSO-neutral events for which we have a considerably larger sample size to consider. What sticks out on the
temperature map is the large expanse and impressive intensity of cold anomalies over Canada. A finger of chill points at the Great Lakes and Northeast. Little warmth is apparent except for near Greenland (hinting at a propensity for blocking).
The jet stream is extremely interesting. As with La Nina, the steering flow rides south across Alaska and western Canada, but unlike the La Nina pattern, it does not weaken so much over the Northern U.S. Cold air from the Arctic source region typically carries farther south and east into the U.S. compared to the Nina setup. Influence from the subtropical jet appears to be limited, but any surge of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico would tend to aid secondary storm  development over or off the Southeast Coast given the cold-to-warm temperature boundary to the north and northwest.

ENSO-neutral winters and D.C. snow


Ironically or perhaps not  D.C.s median seasonal snowfall calculated for all ENSO-neutral events since 1950 is 15 inches, which equals the normal amount. There have been some real duds, including last winter%u2019s 3.1 inches, but there have also been some bonanzas, like in 1960-61 (40.3 inches) and in 1978-79 (37.7inches).


ENSOs impact will be difficult to judge for this winter, and it wont be the only driving force on our local temperature and snowfall pattern. Despite those arguments, ENSO correlations with winter temperatures and snowfall show us certain patterns that might be helpful in creating a forecast.




THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS DEEP SOUTH FLORIDA ON
THURSDAY.

THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS BUILD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
Quoting 545. Neapolitan:
[..]I don't know that anyone will "blame" such an unprecedented chain of events of GW, but one would have to be pretty disconnected--or willfully blind to highly visual evidence--to not see that things aren't the way they used to be.

"Prime Minister Tony Abbott told Australian radio the U.N. head of climate change was "talking through her hat" when she told CNN's Christiane Amanpour there is "absolutely" a link between the fires spreading across Australia's most populous state and global warming."
(from smh.com.au today).

Should be held personally responsible for the devastation.

(edit: to be sure: prime-ministerially )
Quoting 560. cRRKampen:

"Prime Minister Tony Abbott told Australian radio the U.N. head of climate change was "talking through her hat" when she told CNN's Christiane Amanpour there is "absolutely" a link between the fires spreading across Australia's most populous state and global warming."
(from smh.com.au today).

Should be held personally responsible for the devastation.
I think it'll be far more difficult for Abbott and his cronies to prove that the changing climate had "absolutely" no effect on the current fires than for scientists to provide evidence that it did.
Quoting 561. Neapolitan:
I think it'll be far more difficult for Abbott and his cronies to prove that the changing climate had "absolutely" no effect on the current fires than for scientists to provide evidence that it did.

Problem is, it's not about proof. All climate revisionists simply skip it.

The lesson only learnt thru confrontation, thanx Sandy.
October 23, 2013: Equipment issues have caused a reduction in quality and frequency of the GOES West data. We appreciate your patience while we investigate the cause.

from noaa.^

yes, obvious quality loss there. LOL

TS lorenzo.

Quoting 552. FunnelVortex:


You sure that isnt shopped?


i dont know, but the new image of the day has already been posted. here it is, for those who missed it....


IMAGE OF THE DAY: A FIRENADO IS SPOTTED IN THE VICINITY OF HUNGARY.



Firenados are the same as regular tornadoes mechanic-wise, just fire gets wrapped into the clouds, creating this blazing, spinning inferno.
Could RAYMOND Become the first cat 5 in the EPAC this year? this data is a few hours old, but you can see the spread in some of the models.

Quoting 561. Neapolitan:
I think it'll be far more difficult for Abbott and his cronies to prove that the changing climate had "absolutely" no effect on the current fires than for scientists to provide evidence that it did.




You guys can "verify" darn near anything that fits your worldview because the bar is set so low and your parameters are so wide. If it is too dry,GW, too cold, GW big storm, GW no storms GW, no snow, GW , blizzard, GW drought GW, flood GW, low ice at the caps, GW, ice comeback at the caps GW. It's endless for the Lt's.
Oh yeah, i forgot today was wednesday warzone with the topic of global warming today. please dont shoot each other guys...

Anyways, Francisco is starting to weaken again, likely because of the dry air being injected into its eyewall.

Really interesting read on wildfire detection with satellites.

Link
Quoting 567. PensacolaDoug:




You guys can "verify" darn near anything that fits your worldview because the bar is set so low and your parameters are so wide. If it is too dry,GW, too cold, GW big storm, GW no storms GW, no snow, GW , blizzard, GW drought GW, flood GW, low ice at the caps, GW, ice comeback at the caps GW. It's endless for the Lt's.

Yes, CAGW affects ALL weather.
Note the lack of cold records. Or don't note - if facts must be taboo.

Hyperwet? CAGW. Hyperdry? CAGW. Easy to understand: for every degree of warming there will be like 6% more moisture in the air. That will drop somewhere, causing those 'Floods of the Century' twice per decennium, and it will have to have evaporated from somewhere first, causing drought.

Maybe you get what happened this year in Boulder now.
93P has degenerated back into a weak T-wave, it appears.

95S gaining a little bit more convection than earlier.

Good morning everyone. I left breakfast on the kitchen counter for you before I left for work. Pretend corn flakes and some pretend instant decaf. Better get to it quick, the corn flakes are starting to get soggy. Milk expired 5 days ago but I'm pretty sure it's still okay. Enjoy!
EWRC likely in store for lekima, the eyewall is starting to contract while the cloud tops of the eyewall are changing in temperature.

lorenzo is slowly being decoupled from the COC. Not a good sign for the future of this system.

Quoting 567. PensacolaDoug:




You guys can "verify" darn near anything that fits your worldview because the bar is set so low and your parameters are so wide. If it is too dry,GW, too cold, GW big storm, GW no storms GW, no snow, GW , blizzard, GW drought GW, flood GW, low ice at the caps, GW, ice comeback at the caps GW. It's endless for the Lt's.


I agree that man is influencing the climate. How much and to what degree is up for debate. But it drives me crazy when people try to relate 1 event or 1 season to GW.
That is simply bad science and in no way evidence of GW.

In this forum
GW = Active Tropical Season
GW= Less Active Tropical Season
GW = Floods
GW = Drought
GW = Record Highs
GW = Record Lows
GW = Fires
GW = etc





happy hump day
95S Predicted to continue strengthening.

579. VR46L
Quoting 575. Torito:
lorenzo is slowly being decoupled from the COC. Not a good sign for the future of this system.



Sure ,is in a state of undress !
Quoting 575. Torito:
lorenzo is slowly being decoupled from the COC. Not a good sign for the future of this system.


The future of this system might be addition to the warm sector of a developing vigorous Atlantic low, that GFS projects to track over the south of England into the North Sea eastwards. Today's GFS06z Oper puts the system at 955 hPa on Monday in the German Bight, with storm force winds or even some more. Should affect Holland well, which is where I live: future of Lorenzo should be for me :)
This thing has popped up in models as of day before yesterday with varying intensities but consistent tracking. It's still a bit far into the future but we've started paying it attention.
Quoting 561. Neapolitan:
I think it'll be far more difficult for Abbott and his cronies to prove that the changing climate had "absolutely" no effect on the current fires than for scientists to provide evidence that it did.


Please do not call my fellow countrymen and women cronies. Please be respectful of their position. I guess you didn't read what I said in comment #543. Also remember what I said in my 2013/14 Australian Bushfire Season Forecast.
Quoting 576. Sfloridacat5:


I agree that man is influencing the climate. How much and to what degree is up for debate. But it drives me crazy when people try to relate 1 event or 1 season to GW.
That is simply bad science and in no way evidence of GW.

[..]





It is not that simple. There are probably already things happening that could not happen without the AGW already realized.

Apart from this, Trenberth's Law cannot but hold: "All weather events are affected by climate change because the environment in which they occur is warmer and moister than it used to be."
Quoting Torito:
Really interesting read on wildfire detection with satellites.

Link


We map them down here via satellite



@NSWRFS NSW Rural Fire Service
State Mine / Mt York Rd: Linescan of fire taken at 7:00pm. Red areas show active fire brighter areas are more intense
Quoting 581. AussieStorm:


Please do not call my fellow countrymen and women cronies. Please be respectful of their position.

Why - should respect always come from one side only? May Abott chastise climatologists for free always?

Why did Aussie government permit that shooting exercise by the army in the Blue Mountains region?
Quoting 583. AussieStorm:


We map them down here via satellite



@NSWRFS NSW Rural Fire Service
State Mine / Mt York Rd: Linescan of fire taken at 7:00pm. Red areas show active fire brighter areas are more intense


Speaking of that, have the winds calmed enough for water bombing to resume?
Quoting cRRKampen:

It is not that simple. There are probably already things happening that could not happen without the AGW already realized.

Apart from this, Trenberth's Law cannot but hold: "All weather events are affected by climate change because the environment in which they occur is warmer and moister than it used to be."


Really... SO Australia is Warmer and moister than it used to be? So why are we having these devastating bushfire if it's meant to be moister?
Quoting 567. PensacolaDoug:




You guys can "verify" darn near anything that fits your worldview because the bar is set so low and your parameters are so wide. If it is too dry,GW, too cold, GW big storm, GW no storms GW, no snow, GW , blizzard, GW drought GW, flood GW, low ice at the caps, GW, ice comeback at the caps GW. It's endless for the Lt's.
Lol..The poles will melt, land cook, AC units worthless..GW...Mu ha ha ha ha...Mornin Doug...:)
"Prime Minister Tony Abbott said and rejected the connection saying 'fire is a part of the Australian experience' "

So rain is part of the Dutch experience. Never mind if it rains 1 mm or 10.000mm/year, then; never mind Black Saturdays and never mind hitherto unseen spring bushfire devastation in NSW. Guess heat is part of the Aussie experience too, never mind if Sydney is experiencing spring months that would do well as Januaries.

The utter arrogance of ignorance!
Quoting 586. AussieStorm:


Really... SO Australia is Warmer and moister than it used to be? So why are we having these devastating bushfire if it's meant to be moister?

Must be magic, that moisture obviously evaporates from nowhere ;)
Quoting cRRKampen:

Why - should respect always come from one side only? May Abott chastise climatologists for free always?

Why did Aussie government permit that shooting exercise by the army in the Blue Mountains region?


Read what I said in comment #543 and get back to me on your first point.

on your second point. It has not been confirmed by the Defence Department that they were the cause of the fire but they are looking most likely. Also there was no Total Fire Ban last Wednesday so there is no reason why they couldn't do a training exercise using live ordnance.
Quoting 576. Sfloridacat5:
I agree that man is influencing the climate. How much and to what degree is up for debate. But it drives me crazy when people try to relate 1 event or 1 season to GW.
That is simply bad science and in no way evidence of GW.

In this forum
GW = Active Tropical Season
GW= Less Active Tropical Season
GW = Floods
GW = Drought
GW = Record Highs
GW = Record Lows
GW = Fires
GW = etc
Drives me nuts, too. That's why I'm so glad that no credible person has ever done that. What those credible people have done, however, is pointed at the number of extreme meteorological and climatic events that are increasing in both frequency and severity, and said, "Guys, something's not right here."

Not seeing the forest for the trees is, indeed, foolishness. But forgetting that the individual trees are part of the forest is equally foolish...
Quoting cRRKampen:
"Prime Minister Tony Abbott said and rejected the connection saying “fire is a part of the Australian experience” "

So rain is part the Dutch experience. Never mind if it rains 1 mm or 10.000mm/year, then; never mind Black Saturdays and never mind hitherto unseen spring bushfire devastation in NSW. Guess heat is part of the Aussie experience too, never mind if Sydney is experiencing spring months that would do well as Januaries.

The utter arrogance of ignorance!


Yes, heat is part of the Australian experience. We are the driest continent in the world. Fact. Our forests are mainly made up of eucalyptus trees which contain eucalyptus oil which is very flammable.

It's been said on the blog many times, even by Dr Masters himself as did UN climate chief Christiana Figueres that no one event can be put down to GW or CC.
Double rainbows at UNC Asheville and snow showers on Beech Mountain, North Carolina this morning.


- Brad Panovich


-Hvward from AmericanWeather
good day mates I see people are being nice today right
Quoting 590. AussieStorm:


Read what I said in comment #543 and get back to me on your first point.

on your second point. It has not been confirmed by the Defence Department that they were the cause of the fire but they are looking most likely. Also there was no Total Fire Ban last Wednesday so there is no reason why they couldn't do a training exercise using live ordnance.

I took that quote from #543.
In that comment, the word 'October' is conspicuously absent. Also very absent is any comparison to a historic run of negative to neutral EN/SO conditions with respect to record year, season, month and day temps, or Angry Summers.

Then, there is a hint to the well-known saying 'one swallow makes no summer, so a million swallows CERTAINLY make no summer'. Or: there's more going on than just NSW bushfires. Refer back to your impressive list.
Well it's been a long day, my brain is fried and the cool change is certainly here so I'll be able to sleep easier tonight.

Goodnight all
Quoting 592. AussieStorm:


Yes, heat is part of the Australian experience. We are the driest continent in the world. Fact. Our forests are mainly made up of eucalyptus trees which contain eucalyptus oil which is very flammable.

It's been said on the blog many times, even by Dr Masters himself as did UN climate chief Christiana Figueres that no one event can be put down to GW or CC.

Antarctica is the driest continent, but never mind, I know. Lived there you know, including a year of nomadic travel.
The Blue Mountains then were called so because of that eucalyptus haze - instead of smoke.

Anyway, if no event can be put down to AGW, then AGW cannot mean anything at all. Nil. I know: logic is poison.
Quoting 597. AussieStorm:
Well it's been a long day, my brain is fried and the cool change is certainly here so I'll be able to sleep easier tonight.

Goodnight all
later aussie have a good sleep
Guess that counts as the first wet snow in the South-East for this Fall. Far cry from the 3feet Sandy dumped in western NC tho last year.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
604. VR46L
Icelandic imagery



957 mb low