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Army Corps blows up levee to help fight unprecedented Mississippi River flood

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:47 PM GMT on May 03, 2011

A brilliant string of explosions rippled across a two-mile length of the Mississippi River levee at Birds Point, Missouri at 10pm last night. As the levee disintegrated, a massive cascade of muddy brown water from the Father of Waters gushed into the crevasse, thundering with the flow of eight Niagara Falls. The waters quickly spread out over 133,000 acres of rich farmland, rushing southwards along the 35-mile long Birds Point-New Madrid Spillway. The levee that was destroyed--called a plug fuse levee--was designed to be destroyed in the event of a record flood. In a marathon 20-hour operation, 150 engineers from the Army Corps of Engineers packed 22 wells in the levee with explosives on Sunday and Monday. A raging thunderstorm with dangerous lightning halted the work for a time on Sunday night, as the engineers were pulled off the levee due to concerns about lightning. Final approval for the demolition occurred after a series of failed court challenges, brought by the Attorney General of Missouri, ended at the Supreme Court on Monday. Damage to the farmland and structures along the the Birds Point-New Madrid Spillway is estimated to cost $317 million due to the intentional breach of the levee. The fact that the Army Corps is intentionally causing 1/3 of billion dollars in damage is stark evidence of just how serious this flood is. The Birds Point levee has been demolished only once before, during the historic 1937 flood.


Figure 1. Still frame from an Army Corps of Engineers video of last night's demolition of the Birds Point levee on the Mississippi River.


Figure 2. The gauge on the Ohio River at Cairo was at record highs over the past few days, but the river level is now falling, thanks to the demolition of the Birds Point levee.

Unprecedented flooding on the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers
Snow melt from this winter's record snow pack across the Upper Mississippi River has formed a pulse of flood waters that is moving downstream on the Mississippi. This pulse of flood waters passed St. Louis on Saturday, where the river is now falling. The snow melt pulse arrived on Monday at Thebes, Illinois, about 20 miles upstream from the Mississippi/Ohio River junction at Cairo. The Mississippi River crested yesterday at Thebes at 45.52', which beats 1993 as the 2nd highest Mississippi River flood of all-time at Thebes. This floodwater pulse is headed south to Cairo, Illinois, and will join with the record water flow coming out of the Ohio River to create the highest flood heights ever recorded on a long stretch of the Mississippi, according to the latest forecasts from the National Weather Service. Along a 400-mile stretch of the Mississippi, from Cairo to Natchez, Mississippi the Mississippi is expected to experience the highest flood heights since records began over a century ago at 5 of the 10 gauges on the river. Areas that are not protected by levees can expect extensive damage from the flooding, but the mainline levees on the Lower Mississippi are high enough so that the flood waters are predicted to stay at least 3 feet below the tops of the levees.

The Mississippi River at New Madrid, MO, about 40 miles downstream of the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers, crested at 46.54' this morning, the 2nd highest flood in history. The river is now falling, thanks to the blowing of the Birds Point levee. Rains of up to ten inches over the past three days in the region have now ended, but this water will enter the river system over the next few days, increasing heights on the river once again. The Mississippi is predicted to rise to 50 feet late this week, two feet above the all-time record height of 48 feet. The NWS warns that at this height, "Large amounts of property damage can be expected. Evacuation of many homes and businesses becomes necessary." Previous record heights at this location:

(1) 48.00 ft on 02/03/1937
(2) 46+ ft on 05/03/2011
(2) 44.60 ft on 04/09/1913
(3) 43.60 ft on 04/04/1975
(4) 43.50 ft on 02/16/1950
(5) 42.94 ft on 03/17/1997


Figure 3. Radar-estimated rainfall near the confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers totaled 4 - 10 inches over a wide area during the past three days.


Figure 3. Flooding on the Mississippi in Missouri at the end of April. Image credit: USACE.

The "Project Flood"
The levees on the Lower Mississippi River are meant to withstand a "Project Flood"--the type of flood the Army Corps of Engineers believes is the maximum flood that could occur on the river, equivalent to a 1-in-500 year flood. The Project Flood was conceived in the wake of the greatest natural disaster in American history, the great 1927 Mississippi River flood. Since the great 1927 flood, there has never been a Project Flood on the Lower Mississippi, downstream from the confluence with the Ohio River (there was a 500-year flood on the Upper Mississippi in 1993, though.) On Sunday, Major General Michael Walsh of the Army Corps of Engineers, President of the Mississippi Valley Commission, the organization entrusted to make flood control decisions on the Mississippi, stated: "The Project Flood is upon us. This is the flood that engineers envisioned following the 1927 flood. It is testing the system like never before."

At Cairo, the project flood is estimated at 2.36 million cubic feet per second (cfs). The current prediction for the flow rate at New Madrid, the Mississippi River gauge just downstream from Cairo, is 1.89 million cfs on May 7, so this flood is not expected to be a 1-in-500 year Project Flood. In theory, the levee system is designed to withstand this flood. But the Army Corps is in for the flood fight of its life, and it will be a long a difficult few weeks. Here's how Major General Michael Walsh of the Army Corps of Engineers described his decision yesterday to blow up the Birds Point levee:

"Everyone I have talked with--from boat operators, to labors, scientist and engineers, and truck drivers have all said the same thing--I never thought I would see the day that the river would reach these levels.

We have exceeded the record stage already at Cairo. We are on a course to break records at many points as the crest moves through the system. Sometimes people celebrate with "records"--but not this time. Making this decision is not easy or hard--it's simply grave-- because the decision leads to loss of property and livelihood--either in a floodway--or in an area that was not designed to flood. The state of Missouri has done a superb job of helping people escape the ravages of water in the floodway. But other places--not designed to flood have had no warning if their areas succumb to the pressures of this historic chocolate tide.

I spent last night on the river...lashed to an anchor barge in the current near the top of the floodway. The rains continued to pound the deck of the Motor Vessel. The cold winds moved us around--and the current and water levels kept increasing as the rain storms continue to grow over the Ar/Miss/Ohio/TN Watershed.

So, with the tool that has withstood many tests: the test of operation in 1937; decades of challenges that resulted in the 1986 Operation Plan; reviews and numerous unsuccessful court challenges--I have to use this tool. I have to activate this floodway to help capture a significant percentage of the flow.

I don't have to like it but we must use everything we have in our possession, in the system to prevent a more catastrophic event. So, today, I give the order to operate the Floodway."



Jeff Masters
Wappapello Spillway
Wappapello Spillway
Water going over the emergency spillway. A temp berm was built hoping to hold back the water but the extra rains we got pushed it over the edge.

Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

water water everywhere

thanks for update doc
have a nice day

Thank you Dr. Masters.

A very serious situation indeed.
Thanks Doc. Mother nature not giving anyone a break in the South or the Mississippi River Valley.
1410UTC: Modis:




SAL is quite low:




Zero expectations of development however. It'll likely poof as it goes over the water.




Repost: 12HR WV Imagery ending 1215PM ET:




It's not that the amount of rainfall has been *that* extreme, but that it has been high for such a large area all in the same river's watershed at the same time as the snowmelt.

We have seen much higher percent of rainfall for a month's time plenty of times. But the 200 % area, in this case is so large.


(Gee, is TX's drought going to grow all the way to Mobile?)

PS: As of this posting much of the west has not been updated, thus grayed
Thanks DRM. There are just no words. :(
Thanks Jeff...
Incredible amounts of rain: this image shows rainfall for the past 30 days over the eastern 2/3 of the U.S. Note the thousands of square miles in the Mississippi watershed that have received more than a foot of rain in the past month, and the many thousands more that have seen more than half a foot. And the map in P451's comment #4 shows a huge area receiving three, four, five and even six times normal rainfall over the past two weeks. Amazing...

(From NWS Southern Region HQ)

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.
The U.S. should develop a Water Interstate System that would be capable of pumping flood waters, at high speed, from states suffering under flood conditions, to states suffering from drought conditions.

Since the continental U.S. is so large and since climatology is always in flux, there are always areas where there is too much water and areas where there is too little.

Practically every state has either reservoirs or rivers that flood from winter runoff or heavy rains, or fall to low levels due to drought. Seasonal climatology, which is somewhat predictable with ENSO, can help to prepare operators to schedule water deliveries from areas with too much to areas that have too little.

Purposely blowing up levees to intentionally flood vast areas of productive farmland in order to save cities or other sensitive areas is both crude and destructive.

Imagine being able to high speed all that Mississippi flood water to West Texas and South Florida.
Bringing this over from the previous especially since doc's video link isn't working.. wouldn't want anyone to miss "the primacord detonating at its leisurely 4 miles-per-second pace" B^)

Video: Birds Point levee breach, slowed down frame by frame



Real time and slowed down frame by frame play back of the explosion breaching the Birds Point levee in Mississippi County, Mo. on Monday. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers blew an 11,000 foot hole in the Birds Point levee, breaching it to allow water to fill the floodway and relieve pressure and lower the flood levels upstream at Cairo, Ill., and other communities. Video by David Carson-dcarson@post-dispatch.com
Quoting KennyNebraska:
The U.S. should develop a Water Interstate System that would be capable of pumping flood waters, at high speed, from states suffering under flood conditions, to states suffering from drought conditions.

Since the continental U.S. is so large and since climatology is always in flux, there are always areas where there is too much water and areas where there is too little.

Practically every state has either reservoirs or rivers that flood from winter runoff or heavy rains, or fall to low levels due to drought. Seasonal climatology, which is somewhat predictable with ENSO, can help to prepare operators to schedule water deliveries from areas with too much to areas that have too little.

Purposely blowing up levees to intentionally flood vast areas of productive farmland in order to save cities or other sensitive areas is both crude and destructive.

Imagine being able to high speed all that Mississippi flood water to West Texas and South Florida.



The funny thing is... the destruction of the levee is exactly what you're describing - moving water from one area to another via a man-made system, crude though it may be. This country is already criss-crossed with thousands and thousands of floodways, dams, ditches, pipelines, and other water diversions... but to do it on the scale you're proposing (large enough to relieve the Midwestern floods by sending the water to Texas) would require massive infrastructure on a prohibitively expensive scale.

Heck, my town can't even afford to fix all of the broken and silt-choked culverts that are supposed to prevent our driveways from flooding.

The capacity of existing pipelines and ditches is incredibly puny compared to the nearly unfathomable amount of extra water that the Midwest is dealing with (and the similarly unfathomable amount of water that Texas would need to end its drought).

For instance, a VERY expensive ($4 billion) proposal in Colorado would build a 400-mile, 42-inch pipeline to transfer (at most) 450,000 acre-feet of water per year. Looking at the rainfall maps some folks have posted, a very rough calculation suggests that the worst-affected area in the center of the bulls-eye has received more than 30 million acre-feet of water in just 30 days. We'd need a pipeline big enough to hold a house to transport that quantity of water with any efficiency... and we'd need an entire network of such pipelines so when the flooding happens somewhere else that water could be routed to the places that need it.

I do appreciate where you're coming from, but the economics just don't work (and that's not even considering NIMBY issues...).
It could be called the Hydro Interstate Transportation System (HITS)
Quoting atmoaggie:
It's not that the amount of rainfall has been *that* extreme, but that it has been high for such a large area all in the same river's watershed at the same time as the snowmelt.

We have seen much higher percent of rainfall for a month's time plenty of times. But the 200 % area, in this case is so large.


(Gee, is TX's drought going to grow all the way to Mobile?)

PS: As of this posting much of the west has not been updated, thus grayed


Good point, atmo, about the large area - up in Montana even. Thanks for the good 30-day look at the Mississippi drainage system rainfall. The map covers everything east of the Continental Divide, so the gray areas probably don't apply to water that's reaching/gonna reach the Mississippi R. East of the Appalachians, of course, doesn't either, but all the way up to NY does.

Would be interesting to see a similar map of winter snowfall amounts vs normal.
ACK! My latest post got eaten by the internet monster. It had links and numbers and everything.

Sadface
Schematic of the Mississipi River Project Design Flood-The four control structures/floodways marked in red.
click graphic for full size

I do understand the concern about flooding 130,000 acres of farmland, but I think there are two important points to remember about the flooding of this land:

1) The reason this farmland is "prime" is due to it's location along the Mississippi River. This land has flooded regularly for thousands of years, and flooding brings in more soil and nutrients (pollution too, but I'm nearly certain that the net gain from the additional nutrients is more than enough to balance the net loss from the highly diluted pollution brought in by these flood waters).

2) It sounds like a lot of land, but the state of Missouri alone has something like 29,000,000 acres of farmland. So 130,000 acres is less than a half a percent (0.4%) of all the farmland in Missouri.

It's a difficult situation for the farmers and homeowners who live in the "floodway", but as a nation we won't see so much as a tiny blip in our food prices due to these floods...
I posted this on BFOTR's blog yesterday. It's a brief history and overview of "Project Design Flood".

Link
Quoting emcf30:
Thanks for the video emcf30. I usually like the summer here in the Keys so I can go waterspout spotting. You can sometimes tell when a cloud is going to form a funnel. And the NWS visited here with a doppler radar one summer and declared the Keys the "Waterspout Capital of the Nation". They are neat to watch. Sometimes you can even see the water being drawn up the funnel as the clouds above turn a greenish color. When they are big and head into land, usually they break apart and there is a huge deluge of rain. There have been occasions when the waterspout would jump onto land and continue on for a short bit. By then they are bouncing around on land. The worst I saw was a W/D semi turned on its side, the steeple of a church thrown to the ground and the High school lost the fiberglass roof to their patio. So I would guess EF0-1 in strength.
Quoting MrMixon:
ACK! My latest post got eaten by the internet monster. It had links and numbers and everything.

Sadface

two words: Note pad. ;-)
Quoting Neapolitan:

two words: Note pad. ;-)


Ha! Yes, lesson learned...

Quoting beell:
Schematic of the Mississipi River Project Design Flood-The four control structures/floodways marked in red.
click graphic for full size



Thanks for posting that, bl.
I guess the numbers are cfs flow?

Do you mind if I cock-a-roach the graphic and post it in my blog? (Add:Of course, by asking I'm not cock-a-roaching. lol)

(Hey, tk!)
Quoting Barefootontherocks:


Thanks for posting that, bl.
I guess the numbers are cfs flow?

Do you mind if I cock-a-roach the graphic and post it in my blog?

(Hey, tk!)
HUH??? What does cock-a-roach in this instance mean? I don't think I have seen this usage. I imagine it means copy but why cock-a-roach?
Quoting kwgirl:
HUH??? What does cock-a-roach in this instance mean? I don't think I have seen this usage. I imagine it means copy but why cock-a-roach?


Ditto! Inquiring minds want to know...
Quoting Barefootontherocks:


Thanks for posting that, bl.
I guess the numbers are cfs flow?

Do you mind if I cock-a-roach the graphic and post it in my blog? (Add:Of course, by asking I'm not cock-a-roaching. lol)

(Hey, tk!)


Give me a sec and I'll hand deliver it, bf.
"Cockroaches" take your stuff.

Most common idiomatic usage "cock-a-roach" refers to "borrowing" an unsecured wireless internet connection
DANG-three posts in a row.
Time for Lunch...

Correction:
Morriston, TN tallied 25 tornadoes but EF scale has not been applied. Dallas, TX also counted but has not applied a damage rating to at least 2 confirmed tornadoes.
They were included in the count of 193 but omitted from the EF scale numbers. They are also included in the "Day" count


Made a quick trip through the NWS storm survey pages this morning. With a focus on the 26th-28th.

Confirmed Tornadoes by EF Scale
EF0 41
EF1 46
EF2 34
EF3 24
EF4 18
EF5 3
UNK 27
Total:193

Count by Day:
04/26 37
04/27 133
04/28 23

NWS Storm Survey Page Links

Birmingham, AL
Huntsville, AL
Mobile, AL
Little Rock, AR
Tallahasse, FL
Atlanta, GA
Louisville, KY
Paducah, KY
Shreveport, LA
Jackson, MS
Albany, NY
Binghamton, NY
Wilmington, OH
State College, PA
Columbia, SC
Greenville, SC
Memphis, TN
Morristown, TN
Nashville, TN
Dallas, TX
Blacksburg, VA
Sterling, VA
Wakefield, VA
Quoting beell:
"Cockroaches" take your stuff.

Most common idiomatic usage "cock-a-roach" refers to "borrowing" an unsecured wireless internet connection
Well now that is funny. Cockroaches don't take anything. They eat it where it sits. Only ants carry off stuff. Believe me when I say, I have never seen a roach carry off something and they get pretty big around here. Even the flying palmetto bugs don't carry stuff.
Quoting kwgirl:
Well now that is funny. Cockroaches don't take anything. They eat it where it sits. Only ants carry off stuff. Believe me when I say, I have never seen a roach carry off something and they get pretty big around here. Even the flying palmetto bugs don't carry stuff.


Ok, My bad. They still end up with your "stuff" if you leave it out. But as far as the feeding and foraging habits of the cockroach, you are correct!
Tornado Tracks by EF-Scale


Quoting beell:


Ok, My bad. They still end up with your "stuff" if you leave it out. But as far as the feeding and foraging habits of the cockroach, you are correct!
No problem. But I can see where it means "borrowing" a wireless without the knowledge of the owner, because a lot of times you don't see the cockroaches as they consume your wiring, stored paper, etc. They are sneaky buggers :)
What is the time frame here?

Quoting sunlinepr:
Tornado Tracks by EF-Scale


Steady stream of moisture flowing from BOC to Nova Scotia.

Uh-Oh! New article about rising sea levels.

By KARL RITTER, Associated Press Karl Ritter, Associated Press – 8 mins ago

STOCKHOLM – Arctic ice is melting faster than expected and could raise the average global sea level by as much as five feet this century, an authoritative new report suggests.

"That team, led by Eric Rignot of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, projected that the accelerating melt of the vast Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets would itself raise sea levels by about 6 inches (15 centimeters) by 2050. Adding in other factors — expansion of the oceans from warming and runoff from other glaciers worldwide — would raise sea levels a total of some 13 inches (32 centimeters) by 2050, they said."

Full article: Link
Quoting flsky:
What is the time frame here?



1950 through April 6th, 2011
.
Quoting sunlinepr:
Tornado Tracks by EF-Scale




There's no key on that pic.. Which colors respond to each EF scale?
5/3/11
Quoting flsky:
What is the time frame here?

Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


There's no key on that pic.. Which colors respond to each EF scale?



Sorry, went away for a while...

Link says Page Updated: April 6, 2011- Noaa Storm Prediction Center.

Link http://www.spc.noaa.gov/gis/svrgis/

Link

Although report database seems like 2010....

Welcome to the SVRGIS page for the SPC. This page has the United States severe report database (tornadoes 1950-2010, hail/wind 1955-2010), converted into shapefile (.shp) file format as well as a Geographic Information System (GIS) database. Additional data available for download include census and topographic datasets, among others. The data can be viewed in graphical, tabular, and statistical formats depending on end-user programs.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 263
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
350 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF WESTERN MARYLAND
LARGE PART OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
SMALL PART OF NORTHERN VIRGINIA
SMALL PART OF EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 350 PM UNTIL
1000 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES SOUTH OF
MARTINSBURG WEST VIRGINIA TO 45 MILES NORTH OF WILKESBARRE
PENNSYLVANIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND
INTENSITY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. WITH
STRONG HEATING...MLCAPES ACROSS THE WATCH RANGE UPWARDS TO 1500
J/KG...WHICH COUPLED WITH 40-50KT OF SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 23035.


...HALES
The N OAA just released updated numbers for last week's massive tornado outbreak. To date:


DATE || Eyewitness reports || NOAA Estimate || Surveyed by WFOs*

25-26 || 55 || 40 || 25
26-27 || 111 || 75 || 40
27-28 || 268 || 190 || 113
TOTAL || 434 || 305 || 178

So, with 178 confirmed, last week's event is the official and undisputed #1 tornado outbreak ever in the U.S. in terms of number of tornadoes overall

- - - - - - - - - -

At least 327 people were killed during the outbreak.

- - - - - - - - - -

To date, the outbreak produced 21 EF3 tornadoes, 11 EF4s, and 2 EF5s. Those numbers are expected to rise.

- - - - - - - - - -

Preliminary estimates are that there were 600 tornadoes in April. That's number is more than twice the number in any previous April in history, and even more than the previous record for any month (which is 542 for May, 2003).

- - - - - - - - - -

*

Eyewitness Reports are the least accurate/reliable because with long-lived tornadoes like those in this outbreak tend to be reported multiple times. This artificially increases the number of tornadoes.

NOAA's Estimate is based on expert analysis of the Eyewitness Reports compared with the details coming out of the Tornadoes Surveyed by NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFO). It is the statistic NWS uses in public announcements since it is the best estimate at the time. The numbers will change (typically down) as WFOs complete their storm surveys.

Tornadoes Surveyed by WFOs is the latest confirmed number of tornadoes surveyed by the National Weather Service. When all storm surveys are complete this is the number that will go into the permanent record as the actual number.
Quoting beell:
DANG-three posts in a row.
Time for Lunch...

Correction:
Morriston, TN tallied 25 tornadoes but EF scale has not been applied. Dallas, TX also counted but has not applied a damage rating to at least 2 confirmed tornadoes.
They were included in the count of 193 but omitted from the EF scale numbers. They are also included in the "Day" count


Made a quick trip through the NWS storm survey pages this morning. With a focus on the 26th-28th.

Confirmed Tornadoes by EF Scale
EF0 41
EF1 46
EF2 34
EF3 24
EF4 18
EF5 3
UNK 27
Total:193

I heard last night .4% of tornado's are classified as EF4/EF5. Using these numbers, 21/193 were classified EF4/EF5 (10.9% or 2725% the average) Unbelievable.
44. IKE
Don't Talk To Strangers.....

Rick Springfield Busted on DUI Charges
Mon., May. 2, 2011 10:33 AM PDT by

Forget "Jessie's Girl," Rick
Springfield
was probably wishing he had a good bail bondsman last
night. Fulfilling this week's quota of old stars achieving new infamy, E! News confirms that the soap star-turned-pop star was arrested on suspicion of misdemeanor DUI last night.The '80s singer who earlier in the day was threatening to flash the crowd at the L.A.
Times' Festival of Books and who on Friday appeared in a live reveal for the Style network's How Do I Look? was pulled over on the Pacific Coast Highway around 8 p.m. for an unknown traffic violation. Shortly into the stop, the officer smelled alcohol on the breath of the 61-year-old. Field sobriety tests were conducted and failed, and Sheriff's Department spokesman Steve Whitmore told E! News that Springfield blew a 0.10 percent on the breathalyzer (a blood-alcohol content of 0.08 is California's legal limit).
He was released after sobering up, around 2:10 a.m., on $5,000
bond.
Quoting kwgirl:
HUH??? What does cock-a-roach in this instance mean? I don't think I have seen this usage. I imagine it means copy but why cock-a-roach?


Common usage in Hawaiian pidgen for borrowing something without asking.
:)
Quoting tkeith:
I posted this on BFOTR's blog yesterday. It's a brief history and overview of "Project Design Flood".

Link


Good Read Thanks Tkeith!!
Oh look! Rick Springfield blew a .10. Let's make fun of him on a weather blog. Wow!
Tornadoes Surveyed by WFOs is the latest confirmed number of tornadoes surveyed by the National Weather Service. When all storm surveys are complete this is the number that will go into the permanent record as the actual number.

Gosh, you think NOAA would know that and would have included that little bit in previous press releases before the media and others sources cited wildly inaccurate numbers over and over again.

All that aside, a new entry for the record books.



Kinda a neat sat pic...A lot of moisture over the Eastern Caribbean..Intense convection off of northern South America.


warming up
Looks like the GFS is trying to close off a low in the western carribean at 384 hours. It's a long way out, but could hint at our first system in late May.
full basin view

Its finally raining.
Quoting NICycloneChaser:
Looks like the GFS is trying to close off a low in the western carribean at 384 hours. It's a long way out, but could hint at our first system in late May.
I believe there is a decent chance of a late May or early June system..This year reminds me of 1995.
Quoting belizeit:
Its finally raining.
things are starting to get that spin too them

Sure is nice to see all that moisture approaching in the C. Atlantic and E. Caribbean. Now we just need it to work its way north a few hundred miles. Here in S. Florida we could sure use the showers that would bring! Any bets on when the daily t-shower cycle will start??
east pacific season starts in 11 days
Quoting KennyNebraska:
The U.S. should develop a Water Interstate System that would be capable of pumping flood waters, at high speed, from states suffering under flood conditions, to states suffering from drought conditions.

Since the continental U.S. is so large and since climatology is always in flux, there are always areas where there is too much water and areas where there is too little.

Practically every state has either reservoirs or rivers that flood from winter runoff or heavy rains, or fall to low levels due to drought. Seasonal climatology, which is somewhat predictable with ENSO, can help to prepare operators to schedule water deliveries from areas with too much to areas that have too little.

Purposely blowing up levees to intentionally flood vast areas of productive farmland in order to save cities or other sensitive areas is both crude and destructive.

Imagine being able to high speed all that Mississippi flood water to West Texas and South Florida.


that a great idea! I wouldn't be surprised if it pays for itself from averted floods/droughts in 50 years!


look closely at the low entering the eastern pacific!!!!!! any takes on it? and how are the states in america with all the flooding and tornado issues?
and seems that the eastern pacific may also get an early start having a lil trouble posting the link for the exact map and model so i will jjust inform u just ask levi32! so to be exact am rfering to the lowering of sshear and if one was too look at the mj forecast they will agree
Where are all the people? Slowest blog in a long time!
cherish the slowness
the chaos begins in:
28 days 7 hours and 50 minutes pst
GFS at a completely unreliable 372 hours. 1005 mb low in the BOC, 1006 mb low in the Caribbean.

EDIT - why can't we link images from raleighwx?
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
342 PM CDT Tuesday may 3 2011






Short term...
from near record highs to near record lows. Yesterday btr tied a
record high and many other locations were close to theirs. The
complete opposite is expected tonight.

Cold front is steadily moving
eastward across coastal waters with fall type Post frontal precipitation
lags behind. Rain should be finishing off overnight...mostly by
midnight. After a decent drop in temperatures Post frontal...a gradual fall
all day has been consistent. Expecting temperatures to continue to
fall through the night...bottoming out in the low 40s along and
north of I-12 and around 50 south of there. Based on general area
record lows...a few could be reached or surpassed. Highs will
increase significantly Wednesday from today with middle 70s area wide. This is
still only a few degrees or so below climatology norms which are still
just below 80.



Aerial footage of Birds point New Madrid Floodway activation breech #2 taken from National Guard helicopter


From the ground
News Release

Date: May 3, 2011

Contact: MSU Paducah

(314) 603-5966
Coast Guard crews rescue 22 people, 2 dogs in Midwest during historic floods

PADUCAH, Ky. -- Coast Guard Disaster Area Response Teams have rescued 22 people and two dogs from flood waters in the Midwest as of Monday.

In the latest rescue, Livingston County Emergency Management requested Coast Guard assistance with three persons trapped in their home by rising water. A Coast Guard HH-65 Dolphin Helicopter and crew launched from Barkley Regional Airport. Once on scene, the pilot determined that the safest evacuation option would be by a shallow water rescue boat.

Marine Safety Detachment Nashville DART rescued the three from the porch of their house which had water at the doorstep. Two of the people suffered from Parkinson's Disease. The DART delivered them to local emergency services.

The Coast Guard has staged the DARTs in support of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the midwestern states to save lives and minimize damage to property from historic flood levels. The Coast Guard crews are also standing by to assist with environmental hazards that may be caused by the flooding. There are presently 6 DARTs deployed or on standby: Marine Safety Unit Paducah staged in Golconda, Ill.; MSD Cincinnati and MSD Nashville are standing by in Paducah; Sector Upper Mississippi River staged in New Madrid, Mo.; SUMR staged in Dexter, Mo.; and Sector Ohio Valley staged in Fulton & Obion Counties, Ky.

There are also two HH-65 Dolphin Helicopters from Air Station New Orleans on scene.

DARTs consist of six crewmembers that are capable of conducting operations in shallow water and urban environments. Each DART team is outfitted with three 16-foot shallow water boats, various rescue and communications equipment and supplies.

DART crewmembers in conjunction with state and local first responders are also assessing flood levels in various communities to render assistance to residents before evacuation is necessary.

The Coast Guard urges residents to heed the warnings of local officials and not venture into unsafe conditions.

"With more rain expected, the Coast Guard is ready and eager to send our teams to help residents in the impacted communities of Missouri, Kentucky, Illinois and Tennessee," said Cmdr. Claudia Gelzer, commanding officer of Coast Guard Marine Safety Unit Paducah.



CybrTeddy ? ..image accweather
Quoting KennyNebraska:
The U.S. should develop a Water Interstate System that would be capable of pumping flood waters, at high speed, from states suffering under flood conditions, to states suffering from drought conditions.

Since the continental U.S. is so large and since climatology is always in flux, there are always areas where there is too much water and areas where there is too little.

Practically every state has either reservoirs or rivers that flood from winter runoff or heavy rains, or fall to low levels due to drought. Seasonal climatology, which is somewhat predictable with ENSO, can help to prepare operators to schedule water deliveries from areas with too much to areas that have too little.

Purposely blowing up levees to intentionally flood vast areas of productive farmland in order to save cities or other sensitive areas is both crude and destructive.

Imagine being able to high speed all that Mississippi flood water to West Texas and South Florida.

Here in Australia there was the same thought a few years ago when we were in the depths of a 10 year long drought. Build a pipeline from NW Western Australia down to Perth and another pipeline from the Northern Territory/Queensland boarder region down to NSW to feed into the Murry/Darling/Daly river system. Two things stopped these projects for happening. Cost and Environmental impacts. It was estimated to cost about AU$100 Billion (A desalination plant costs AU$2billion to build) Sydney got a desal plant Perth has a desal plant. Then 2 years after the Sydney desal plant was opened, the weather cycle changed and NSW got record rains. NSW went from 99% of the state in drought to now 5% in drought. Perth is the driest city in Australia, and will always be.
Other water projects can be found here.

Environmentally, Rivers need certain levels of water during wet seasons to flush out debris and to help naturally irrigate flood plains. If those flood waters were diverted into pipelines and the rivers didn't reach flood levels then the whole eco-system will change. Rivers will be come clogged with silt and debris. Rivers in Northern Australia have tide changes of meters not centimeters.

Some parts of our countries are meant to be in drought, it's a natural process. Some parts are also to have floods due to natural processes. We as humans have to learn to live with these processes. Not try to alter them.
Quoting NICycloneChaser:
Looks like the GFS is trying to close off a low in the western carribean at 384 hours. It's a long way out, but could hint at our first system in late May.
sure does, the 12z shows it, on the 16th to 18th, but there's not much support~ the 18z doesn't show it...
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
full basin view



Something that the GFS is lacking this year.
Quoting caribbeantracker01:


look closely at the low entering the eastern pacific!!!!!! any takes on it? and how are the states in america with all the flooding and tornado issues?


Convection is part of the ongoing flooding in Northern Colombia.
How do u post a video on here?
Looks like our best chance of a little rain is Wednesday; other than that, more of the same:
Regional Forecast for Coastal Volusia County
Tuesday, 85 | 67 F Chance of Precipitation 0%
Wednesday, 81 | 63 F Chance of Precipitation 20%
Thursday, 81 | 61 F Chance of Precipitation 0%
Friday, 681 | 63 F Chance of Precipitation 10%
Saturday, 83 | 65 F Chance of Precipitation 10%
Sunday, 85 | 65 F Chance of Precipitation 10%
Monday, 86 | 67 F Chance of Precipitation 10%
Tuesday, 86 | NA Chance of Precipitation 10%
Source: NWS at 3:09 PM EDT on May 3, 2011
Interesting satellite comparison of the Ohio & Mississippi river basins vs. last year:

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/v iew.php?id=50397&src=eorss-nh
Be sure to scroll to the lower right of the link I posted to see the satellite image of before and after the birds point levee being blown too.
river is rising pretty quick here in baton rouge
Quoting LS1redline:
Interesting satellite comparison of the Ohio & Mississippi river basins vs. last year:

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/v iew.php?id=50397&src=eorss-nh


page not found error 404
Quoting PcolaDan:


page not found error 404


Eliminate the spaces in the link

change (/v iew to /view)
Memphis Minnie and Joe Mccoys original..."When the Levee Break's"


by Memphis Minnie
recording of 1929
from, copyright notice

If it keeps on rainin', levee's goin' to break
If it keeps on rainin', levee's goin' to break
And the water gonna come in, have no place to stay

Well all last night I sat on the levee and moan
Well all last night I sat on the levee and moan
Thinkin' 'bout my baby and my happy home

If it keeps on rainin', levee's goin' to break
If it keeps on rainin', levee's goin' to break
And all these people have no place to stay

Now look here mama what am I to do
Now look here mama what am I to do
I ain't got nobody to tell my troubles to

I works on the levee mama both night and day
I works on the levee mama both night and day
I ain't got nobody, keep the water away

Oh cryin' won't help you, prayin' won't do no good
Oh cryin' won't help you, prayin' won't do no good
When the levee breaks, mama, you got to lose

I works on the levee, mama both night and day
I works on the levee, mama both night and day
I works so hard, to keep the water away

I had a woman, she wouldn't do for me
I had a woman, she wouldn't do for me
I'm goin' back to my used to be

I's a mean old levee, cause me to weep and moan
I's a mean old levee, cause me to weep and moan
Gonna leave my baby, and my happy home
URGENT: Seabed radiation 100-1,000 times normal level off Fukushima plant

Radiation readings have risen to 100-1,000 times the normal level on the Pacific seabed near the crippled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, the operator said Tuesday.

The high levels of radioactive materials were detected from samples taken from the seabed at points 20-30 meters deep, according to Tokyo Electric Power Co.

Kyodo News Article...

Wait--didn't they tell us they stopped the leaks weeks ago? if so, the radiation can't be new. But didn't they also tell us that the radiation that leaked weeks ago would dilute, dissipate , and disappear within a few days? If so, the radiation can't be old.

Hmmm...methinks there's either confusion or hanky panky going on.
Quoting OrchidGrower:
Sure is nice to see all that moisture approaching in the C. Atlantic and E. Caribbean. Now we just need it to work its way north a few hundred miles. Here in S. Florida we could sure use the showers that would bring! Any bets on when the daily t-shower cycle will start??


Based on past La Nina weakening to neutral summers, we could have some increase in southerly flow during parts of the rainy season, which could translate to wetter than normal conditions across sfl.
This article is a bit long, but has some interesting info

Fukushima marks a 'nuclear ice age'
By Kosuke Takahashi
Link

The last little bit from the linked article.

Takashi Hirose, a well-noted Japanese writer on nuclear problems, has pointed out there are about 3,000 tons of highly radioactive used nuclear fuel stored in Rokkasho that could overheat and catch fire if the cooling systems fail. This amount could spread nuclear fallout or "ashes of death" to the whole world, he said.
unprecidented flooding? unprecidented tornados?

CLEARLY a sign AGW is BS.
Ohio and Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center
7:45PM CDT Tue May 3 2011


Mississppi River at Vicksburg
Flood Stage: 43'
Current Stage: 46.4'
Crest Forecast: 05/20 at 57.5'
Historical Crest: 56.2' in 1927

Mississippi River at Natchez
Flood Stage: 48'
Current Stage: 51.6'
Crest Forecast: 05/22 at 65'
Historical Crest: 58.04' in 1937

Mississippi River at Red River Landing
Flood Stage: 48.2'
Current Stage: 52.8'
Crest Forecast: 05/23 at 65.5'
Historical Crest: 62.3' in 1997
Quoting lickitysplit:
unprecidented flooding? unprecidented tornados?

CLEARLY a sign AGW is BS.
???

This makes no sense even if you aren't kidding. No single weather event indicates global warming. No single weather event refutes global warming.
Quoting CothranRoss:


that a great idea! I wouldn't be surprised if it pays for itself from averted floods/droughts in 50 years!
Yeah, great idea, but who's going to build a pipe with the same capacity as the mississippi river??
NWS of Tampa and melbourne are going to bomb Friday's forecast if they don't add atleast a 40 to 50 percent chance of rain and thunderstorms.
80 LS1redline "Be sure to scroll to the lower right of the link I posted to see the
satellite images of before and after the Birds Point levee being blown too
."

29April

3May
Quoting MrMixon:
I do understand the concern about flooding 130,000 acres of farmland, but I think there are two important points to remember about the flooding of this land:

1) The reason this farmland is "prime" is due to it's location along the Mississippi River. This land has flooded regularly for thousands of years, and flooding brings in more soil and nutrients (pollution too, but I'm nearly certain that the net gain from the additional nutrients is more than enough to balance the net loss from the highly diluted pollution brought in by these flood waters).

2) It sounds like a lot of land, but the state of Missouri alone has something like 29,000,000 acres of farmland. So 130,000 acres is less than a half a percent (0.4%) of all the farmland in Missouri.

It's a difficult situation for the farmers and homeowners who live in the "floodway", but as a nation we won't see so much as a tiny blip in our food prices due to these floods...


I don't know why the state fought the demolition of that levee. The people who built in that plain should have known it was an "emergency flood plain" and it's their own fault for being in a threatening area for flooding.
Quoting RastaSteve:
NWS of Tampa and melbourne are going to bomb Friday's forecast if they don't add atleast a 40 to 50 percent chance of rain and thunderstorms.


The computers models seem to agree with NWS also, so I'm not sure what you're looking at, there's no reason to believe we will have a high coverage of storms on Friday based on current understanding.
Quoting TomTaylor:
???

This makes no sense even if you aren't kidding. No single weather event indicates global warming. No single weather event refutes global warming.


So true!

Not everyone here thinks like a scientist, or at times anything like one, remember that :) lol
Quoting traumaboyy:


Good Read Thanks Tkeith!!


The information I asked for the other day -- thanks!
Climate oscillated
And dangerous
dammn cold in slidell la rite now ;(!~~~
101. IKE
I picked up a whopping .01 inches of rain last night when the cold front passed through. No mention of rain the next 7(maybe more) days.

I've had 1.50 inches of rain at my location...since April 1st.

54.5 outside my window right now.

Tonight......

Colder. Mostly clear. Lows 38 to 43. North winds 5 to 10 mph.
Quoting Jedkins01:


The computers models seem to agree with NWS also, so I'm not sure what you're looking at, there's no reason to believe we will have a high coverage of storms on Friday based on current understanding.


What? Wrong again my friend computer models are not agreeing with the NWS. However the NWS of Melbourne is now noticing this trend as well. Looks like Friday is gonna be a stormy day across C and S FL. Very interesting turn of events. Here you go again "not sure what I'm looking at" maybe you should look at the models before posting something absurd.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
329 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2011


FRI...MOISTURE FROM OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO LIFT BACK
TO THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE AND A SOUTH LOW
LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS
. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW THERE MAY BE SOME
SLIGHT INFLUENCE FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. MOS POPS HAVE JUMPED TO 25 PERCENT NORTH AND 50 PERCENTSOUTH. FOR NOW WILL JUST GO WITH 20 PERCENT EXCEPT 30 AROUND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. HAVE ALSO MENTIONED THUNDER AS 500MB TEMPS ARE
FORECAST MINUS 10 TO 11 CELSIUS
.

IF ANYONE NOTICE A NEW TREND MAY BE DEVELOPING THAT HURRICANE SEASON IN THE ATMOSPHERE SEEM TO BE COMMENCING IN the month of MAY INSTEAD OF JUNE ANY THOUGHTS? THE REASON OF This observation derives from the wind shear maps take a look at it and its forecast!
good morning friends and (lunatic)fringe

Ike- obviously I need to go look at the forecast- things ain't what I expected when I stepped onto the porch
Quoting IKE:
I picked up a whopping .01 inches of rain last night when the cold front passed through. No mention of rain the next 7(maybe more) days.

I've had 1.50 inches of rain at my location...since April 1st.

54.5 outside my window right now.

Tonight......

Colder. Mostly clear. Lows 38 to 43. North winds 5 to 10 mph.


That cold? WOW! Man it's been hot as all get out for a long time here IKE. I wish we could get a night like that but that won't happen until November or December here in the Orlando area. I was at The Trade Winds Sandpiper in ST.Pete Beach this past weekend and the gulf temps were 83 degrees which is amazing as it was late April at the time and down the coast in Fort Myers the SST's are at 87. Now that's bath water if you ask me.
Quoting sflawavedude:


I don't know why the state fought the demolition of that levee. The people who built in that plain should have known it was an "emergency flood plain" and it's their own fault for being in a threatening area for flooding.


Personally I think the state fought it, just so that the folks who lost homes/property could get financial reimbursement from the gov't.

So much naivety in the above statement- these weren't homes and properties that just went on the market last year- these were properties that had been owned and farmed for DECADES, close to a CENTURY. No American farmer/landowner/homeowner is just gonna give up their place on earth, without some kinda fight.

Ike- doubt you'll see those thirties, but I bet you're gonna get real dry this next week.
I heard an interesting note on TWC the other night that most of the deadly Tornado Outbreaks over the last 10 to 15 years has been concentrating over Miss and AL.I wonder if tornado alley has shifted into the SE US?
Quoting IKE:
I picked up a whopping .01 inches of rain last night when the cold front passed through. No mention of rain the next 7(maybe more) days.

I've had 1.50 inches of rain at my location...since April 1st.

54.5 outside my window right now.

Tonight......

Colder. Mostly clear. Lows 38 to 43. North winds 5 to 10 mph.

For April, Naples received 0.17" inches of rain. We had above normal temperatures every day of the month, and in fact set or tied high temperature records on 13 different days in April.

It's dry.

It's hot.

There have been a number of brush fires to the east over the past few weeks, and this morning the air in town is filled with smoke, leaving 1/2 mile visibility.

Yippee...
I also wonder if the severe drought in TX is the reason why Tornado Alley has bascially been shut down this year. It seems as if the big tornado outbreaks have occured from ARK to NC and then in the upper plains like MN and WI.
Quoting Neapolitan:

For April, Naples received 0.17" inches of rain. We had above normal temperatures every day of the month, and in fact set or tied high temperature records on 13 different days in April.

It's dry.

It's hot.

There have been a number of brush fires to the east over the past few weeks, and this morning the air in town is filled with smoke, leaving 1/2 mile visibility.

Yippee...


Hi Nea, in Orlando we've had our hottest April since 1929 and the second hottest in history. 14 out of the 30 days in April recorded 90 or higher with a couple of days in the upper 90's.
#108 We can see and smell the smoke from the Cypress fire up here in Fort Myers. We need rain!!
Quoting FtMyersgal:
#108 We can see and smell the smoke from the Cypress fire up here in Fort Myers. We need rain!!


Should be a decent coverage of thunderstorms for you guys Thursday and area wide on Friday. We may actually get some very heavy rains in areas on Friday as a stalled front moves back north out ahead of a short wave moving by to the north.
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0133 AM CDT WED MAY 04 2011

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION...
A NWLY FLOW REGIME WILL EXIST ACROSS THE CONUS WITH MULTIPLE
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIST OVER THE SERN
STATES IN THE WAKE OF ONE TROUGH WITH AXIS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST AT 00Z. FARTHER W...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL FORM FROM THE
ERN DAKOTAS SWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AS A WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGH PROCEEDS SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.

SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ATTEMPT TO RETURN NWD ACROSS COASTAL
GA/CAROLINAS WHERE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXIST BY AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST ACROSS THIS AREA WITH THE
EXITING UPPER TROUGH...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO VERY
WEAK INSTABILITY. A GREATER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER
THE FL PENINSULA WHERE MID 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL EXIST...BUT ANY
WIND/DOWNBURST THREAT SHOULD BE QUITE LOCALIZED AND NOT GREAT ENOUGH
FOR ANY PROBS THIS FAR OUT
.

..JEWELL.. 05/04/2011
114. IKE
I doubt it gets to 38 here tonight. Crestview forecasting a low near 40.

Dew point right now is at 48 here.
Quoting IKE:
I doubt it gets to 38 here tonight. Crestview forecasting a low near 40.

Dew point right now is at 48 here.

If it's any consolation, almost the entire central and eastern parts of the nation will be much warmer beginning Friday and going on into next week. Hot, even, with 90s forecast for large areas.
Quoting IKE:
I doubt it gets to 38 here tonight. Crestview forecasting a low near 40.

Dew point right now is at 48 here.


Ike send some of that cooler air south.
117. IKE

Quoting RastaSteve:


Ike send some of that cooler air south.
Wish I could. High today in the 70's here w/a breeze.



Quoting Neapolitan:

If it's any consolation, almost the entire central and eastern parts of the nation will be much warmer beginning Friday and going on into next week. Hot, even, with 90s forecast for large areas.
I see that......


Ike- we're at a DP of 56 right now, but we're still kinda overcast n breezy. Imagine most of us will be seeing watches or red flag warnings by the end of the week.

Keep that rain gauge clean- it'll come, either with a number or a name.
Quoting RastaSteve:
I heard an interesting note on TWC the other night that most of the deadly Tornado Outbreaks over the last 10 to 15 years has been concentrating over Miss and AL.I wonder if tornado alley has shifted into the SE US?


Rasta -

There are actually four distinct 'tornado alleys' identified that see long-duration supercell tornadoes with frequency.



The article can be found here:

http://news.discovery.com/earth/redefining-tornad o-alleys.html
120. Jax82
Quoting RastaSteve:


That cold? WOW! Man it's been hot as all get out for a long time here IKE. I wish we could get a night like that but that won't happen until November or December here in the Orlando area. I was at The Trade Winds Sandpiper in ST.Pete Beach this past weekend and the gulf temps were 83 degrees which is amazing as it was late April at the time and down the coast in Fort Myers the SST's are at 87. Now that's bath water if you ask me.


I was in the water at St Pete Beach too (the HoJo), it was nice and warm, and an absolutely perfect weekend!
Quoting Jax82:


I was in the water at St Pete Beach too (the HoJo), it was nice and warm, and an absolutely perfect weekend!


LOL! No way the HOJO was right next to me. Small world I tell you. We arrived Thursday evening to a big thunderstorm just off shore but never made it to the coast but the lightning was amazing at about 1am Friday Morning.
122. Jax82
Quoting RastaSteve:


LOL! No way the HOJO was right next to me. Small world I tell you. We arrived Thursday evening to a big thunderstorm just off shore but never made it to the coast but the lightning was amazing at about 1am Friday Morning.


Yeah its a small world for sure, just stayed saturday and sunday. Beautiful sunset Saturday night, there wasnt a cloud in the sky, i took this from my ipod and enhanced it a little in photoshop.



Good morning, the trees are leafing up with no rain to speak of but there must be some underground.

It has occurred to me that global warming effects are accelerating in a sort of sling shot effect where one imbalance creates another and yet another. Perhaps pinball is a better analogy, dunno.
Anyway, scientific experts have documented the ice caps are melting faster than expected and at this rate, we'll see 2-3 ft. rise in sea levels by 2100 (or more). Excerpt from this a.m.'s article below:

"U.N. talks on a global pact to combat climate change are making sluggish progress. The United Nations says national promises to limit greenhouse gas emissions, mainly from burning fossil fuels, are insufficient to avoid dangerous changes.

Thick and thin sea ice are seen in this image taken in March 2011 as part of NASA's climate studies over the Arctic. The new report, drawing on work by hundreds of experts, said there were signs that warming was accelerating.

"The increase in annual average temperature since 1980 has been twice as high over the Arctic as it has been over the rest of the world,"
the report said. Temperatures were higher than at any time in the past 2,000 years, it added.

As a result, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice free in summers within 30 to 40 years, earlier than projected by the U.N. climate panel, it stated.

Link
Quoting Jax82:


Yeah its a small world for sure, just stayed saturday and sunday. Beautiful sunset Saturday night, there wasnt a cloud in the sky, i took this from my ipod and enhanced it a little in photoshop.





Yeah the wx was beautiful. Great pics!
Quoting KeysieLife:
Uh-Oh! New article about rising sea levels.

By KARL RITTER, Associated Press Karl Ritter, Associated Press – 8 mins ago

STOCKHOLM – Arctic ice is melting faster than expected and could raise the average global sea level by as much as five feet this century, an authoritative new report suggests.

"That team, led by Eric Rignot of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, projected that the accelerating melt of the vast Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets would itself raise sea levels by about 6 inches (15 centimeters) by 2050. Adding in other factors — expansion of the oceans from warming and runoff from other glaciers worldwide — would raise sea levels a total of some 13 inches (32 centimeters) by 2050, they said."

Full article: Link
Good morning all. It's a good thing I know how to snorkel:)
Quoting Chicklit:
Good morning, the trees are leafing up with no rain to speak of but there must be some underground.

It has occurred to me that global warming effects are accelerating in a sort of sling shot effect where one imbalance creates another and yet another. Perhaps pinball is a better analogy, dunno.
Anyway, scientific experts have documented the ice caps are melting faster than expected and at this rate, we'll see 2-3 ft. rise in sea levels by 2100 (or more). Excerpt from this a.m.'s article below:

"U.N. talks on a global pact to combat climate change are making sluggish progress. The United Nations says national promises to limit greenhouse gas emissions, mainly from burning fossil fuels, are insufficient to avoid dangerous changes.

Thick and thin sea ice are seen in this image taken in March 2011 as part of NASA's climate studies over the Arctic. The new report, drawing on work by hundreds of experts, said there were signs that warming was accelerating.

"The increase in annual average temperature since 1980 has been twice as high over the Arctic as it has been over the rest of the world,"
the report said. Temperatures were higher than at any time in the past 2,000 years, it added.

As a result, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice free in summers within 30 to 40 years, earlier than projected by the U.N. climate panel, it stated.

Link


the north will be ice free during summer beginning 2015


faster and faster we are going
this summer season will see ice coverage in the north reduced to its lowest rate of coverage then ever before
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


the north will be ice free during summer beginning 2015


faster and faster we are going


You are a witness Keeper.
As are we all as we watch it unfold.
Notice next the hateful remarks when we are simply stating the facts.

Prediction: Once the insurance companies come on board with global warming, policy will change.
In a Clash of the Titans between Big Energy and Insurance, guess who will win.
Quoting RastaSteve:
NWS of Tampa and melbourne are going to bomb Friday's forecast if they don't add atleast a 40 to 50 percent chance of rain and thunderstorms.



I've been quite disgusted with our forecasts in SEFL this year, I mean absolutely horrible. Back when we were supposed to have that big severe weather outbreak, our locals at lunchtime that day said the line would be here by 5pm with damaging winds, tornado's and copious amounts of rain ect.... Well, the .00001 inches of rain we got showed up with the front @ 3am and not a single clap of thunder.

A forecast doesn't get much worse than that.
130. IKE

Quoting aquak9:
Ike- we're at a DP of 56 right now, but we're still kinda overcast n breezy. Imagine most of us will be seeing watches or red flag warnings by the end of the week.

Keep that rain gauge clean- it'll come, either with a number or a name.
LOL

I've had more bird droppings in it, in the last month, then rain.
131. IKE
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



I've been quite disgusted with our forecasts in SEFL this year, I mean absolutely horrible. Back when we were supposed to have that big severe weather outbreak, our locals at lunchtime that day said the line would be here by 5pm with damaging winds, tornado's and copious amounts of rain ect.... Well, the .00001 inches of rain we got showed up with the front @ 3am and not a single clap of thunder.

A forecast doesn't get much worse than that.
It's hard to complain much, with what has gone on in the SE USA the last week and with the flooding.
Can someone explain why we're getting a cold front but no rain?
Quoting Chicklit:
Can someone explain why we're getting a cold front but no rain?


Not much upper level support and the atmosphere aloft is fairly dry. There is hope though because on Friday an upper air short wave is forcast to slide by to our north and as that happens the front in S FL will lift north and provide a fairly good chance of thunderstorms from about Ocala to Palm Coast south. Also on Friday we will have very cold air at 500 mbs (-10 to -12) and deep moisture all the way up to 700 mbs. So if you don't get rain today then Friday I think we maybe in good shape. Well See! Anyways have a good day guys!
Good Morning all.
Hot, humid, overcast here at 11n 61w.
Plenty WV on the maps, mostly over Northern South America but trending NE.
A very potent-looking mass of stuff coming off Africa today as well.

Good to see that there are no weather calamities planned for the CONUS today. Sad about the losses due to the breaching of the levees though.
No doubt the soil in that area will be somewhat rejuvenated due to that.
The Chemical Fertilizer industry will have to do a little extra marketing there, when the time comes...
thanks Rasta, over and out.
Complete Update





Quoting IKE:
It's hard to complain much, with what has gone on in the SE USA the last week and with the flooding.



Although I am deeply saddened by the events of last week and ongoing flooding, I would like to be able to make a comment about an unrelated topic without being looked down upon. As hard as it may be, life does go on and much faster for those that have not had any direct involvement with either situation. It's a tough fact of life. I was sad, I offered what help I could in the form of money and I moved on.
138. IKE

Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



Although I am deeply saddened by the events of last week and ongoing flooding, I would like to be able to make a comment about an unrelated topic without being looked down upon. As hard as it may be, life does go on and much faster for those that have not had any direct involvement with either situation. It's a tough fact of life. I was sad, I offered what help I could in the form of money and I moved on.
I didn't look down upon you. Look at my comment #101. I said it's hard to complain. I didn't say you or I didn't have a right to.
Quoting caribbeantracker01:
IF ANYONE NOTICE A NEW TREND MAY BE DEVELOPING THAT HURRICANE SEASON IN THE ATMOSPHERE SEEM TO BE COMMENCING IN the month of MAY INSTEAD OF JUNE ANY THOUGHTS? THE REASON OF This observation derives from the wind shear maps take a look at it and its forecast!
Maybe we should move the beginning of the season up to May 15th.
Quoting pottery:
Good Morning all.
Hot, humid, overcast here at 11n 61w.
Plenty WV on the maps, mostly over Northern South America but trending NE.
A very potent-looking mass of stuff coming off Africa today as well.

Good to see that there are no weather calamities planned for the CONUS today. Sad about the losses due to the breaching of the levees though.
No doubt the soil in that area will be somewhat rejuvenated due to that.
The Chemical Fertilizer industry will have to do a little extra marketing there, when the time comes...


How far are you from Crown Point airport?
Quoting IKE:

I didn't look down upon you. Look at my comment #101. I said it's hard to complain. I didn't say you or I didn't have a right to.


My apologies, I thought you were criticizing me.
As pottery (and several others) have mentioned, I am finding it VERY hard to understand why authorities in MO are saying the "land is ruined" by the floodway, when the river's silt is responsible for it being so fertile. Yes, you may have to rebuild roads and farmhouses, but that land will be beyond rich for decades to come.
Quoting jeffs713:
As pottery (and several others) have mentioned, I am finding it VERY hard to understand why authorities in MO are saying the "land is ruined" by the floodway, when the river's silt is responsible for it being so fertile. Yes, you may have to rebuild roads and farmhouses, but that land will be beyond rich for decades to come.

Adding to that thought: It never would have been fertile farmland in the first place if the river hadn't flooded it before!
Quoting Chicklit:
Can someone explain why we're getting a cold front but no rain?




in other words its called a dry cold front
Quoting jeffs713:
As pottery (and several others) have mentioned, I am finding it VERY hard to understand why authorities in MO are saying the "land is ruined" by the floodway, when the river's silt is responsible for it being so fertile. Yes, you may have to rebuild roads and farmhouses, but that land will be beyond rich for decades to come.


Speaking in the hear and now, he's right, it is ruined. I don't know if it's the same as Lake Okeechobee dumps but, when the flood gates are opened down here it takes quite a toll on the environment. Back in 06, the Ernesto dump, devastated the eco system for several years. With the silt comes a ton of pollution that overwhelms earths natural ability to cleanse.

Long term, it will eventually benefit the area but that will take time.
146. 7544
Quoting tropicaltank:
Maybe we should move the beginning of the season up to May 15th.


hmm looking at this i would have to agree

Link
Quoting KeysieLife:

Adding to that thought: It never would have been fertile farmland in the first place if the river hadn't flooded it before!

After cleaning up after several floods and having extended family in farming, I suspect what they are concerned about is that it is highly likely that a lot of good topsoil will be scoured off and deposited in the Gulf of Mexico. The good soil was deposited a long time ago when the land was covered with trees and the over flow, settling effect was spread over the whole flood plane. What we will have here is going to be similar to the river cutting a new channel I am afraid.
Quoting RitaEvac:


How far are you from Crown Point airport?

Crown Point airport is on Tobago.
(Trinidad&Tobago is a twin-island Nation)
I am in Trinidad, 8 miles south west of Piarco airport.
Quoting aspectre:
80 LS1redline "Be sure to scroll to the lower right of the link I posted to see the
satellite images of before and after the Birds Point levee being blown too
."

29April

3May
Clearly, those are not true color images. The Mississippi, even up there and especially after all of the rainfall, is nothing close to blue water. Basically looks like very runny mud.

(Re: Pics such as this one.)
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:

After cleaning up after several floods and having extended family in farming, I suspect what they are concerned about is that it is highly likely that a lot of good topsoil will be scoured off and deposited in the Gulf of Mexico. The good soil was deposited a long time ago when the land was covered with trees and the over flow, settling effect was spread over the whole flood plane. What we will have here is going to be similar to the river cutting a new channel I am afraid.

Good points.
I am not familiar with the Geography of the place, and assumed it was relatively flat land where scouring would not be an issue.
Although a wave of water (4 stories high ????) would move more than just topsoil, for sure.

Bad stuff anyway we take it...
Quoting pottery:

Good points.
I am not familiar with the Geography of the place, and assumed it was relatively flat land where scouring would not be an issue.
Although a wave of water (4 stories high ????) would move more than just topsoil, for sure.

Bad stuff anyway we take it...
It *is* really flat land, the scouring (if any) will mostly be from the speed of the water. While I am sure there is some significant force involved, this isn't a rushing rapids of water. More like a 2-3 mph flow (after the initial rush).

As for the "wave" of water, it DEFINITELY wasn't 4 stories high. 4 meters (in a tsunami-type of wave), possibly. 4 stories (roughly 45 feet), definitely not.
Quoting RastaSteve:


That cold? WOW! Man it's been hot as all get out for a long time here IKE. I wish we could get a night like that but that won't happen until November or December here in the Orlando area. I was at The Trade Winds Sandpiper in ST.Pete Beach this past weekend and the gulf temps were 83 degrees which is amazing as it was late April at the time and down the coast in Fort Myers the SST's are at 87. Now that's bath water if you ask me.
I live on siesta key here in sarasota,went for a swim yesterday and the water is perfect,about 3 or 4 degrees above normal for this time.of year i believe
FYI: it was four years ago today that an EF5 destroyed the town of Greenburg, Kansas. This was the first EF5 ever under the Enhanced Fujita scale, as well as the first tornado of such strength in the 21st century.

As an interesting coincidence, there have only been a total of four EF5s, including two last week. Of those four, three have ruined--and are thus named after--towns ending in "burg": Greensburg, KS; Parkersburg, IA; and Hackleburg, AL.
Quoting pottery:

Crown Point airport is on Tobago.
(Trinidad&Tobago is a twin-island Nation)
I am in Trinidad, 8 miles south west of Piarco airport.


Chaguanas!
Here are two worthwhile links from a woman who knows her stuff - some good photos, too.

New Madrid Floodway - The Landscape


New Madrid Floodway & the Confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi Rivers
Gas prices up to $4.21(unleaded), $4.31(leaded), and $4.41(premium) here in Central Illinois. You should see the crippling effect that is beggining take effect on the local economy. We've had several businesses starting to close up around here. NOT GOOD!

Quoting jeffs713:
As pottery (and several others) have mentioned, I am finding it VERY hard to understand why authorities in MO are saying the "land is ruined" by the floodway, when the river's silt is responsible for it being so fertile. Yes, you may have to rebuild roads and farmhouses, but that land will be beyond rich for decades to come.


It is because the silt helps the land with gradual rises and falls. Releasing all of the water at once will scour the landscape, deposit rocks, sand and lord knows what else. The force of the water is amazing...when some of the levees broke in the upper Mississippi in '93, there were huge holes created over 10 feet deep in the fields.
Quoting LS1redline:


It is because the silt helps the land with gradual rises and falls. Releasing all of the water at once will scour the landscape, deposit rocks, sand and lord knows what else. The force of the water is amazing...when some of the levees broke in the upper Mississippi in '93, there were huge holes created over 10 feet deep in the fields.


That helps right? Natural retention/irrigation ponds! =)
Quoting ILwthrfan:
Gas prices up to $4.21(unleaded), $4.31(leaded), and $4.41(premium) here in Central Illinois. You should see the crippling effect that is beggining take effect on the local economy. We've had several businesses starting to close up around here. NOT GOOD!



Yea, I dont see the economy going anywhere ever.
Quoting KeysieLife:

Adding to that thought: It never would have been fertile farmland in the first place if the river hadn't flooded it before!


well, yes...but back then, the river water was not full of decades of pollutants.

modified- I see that CyclonicVoyage already covered that point.
Quoting jeffs713:
It *is* really flat land, the scouring (if any) will mostly be from the speed of the water. While I am sure there is some significant force involved, this isn't a rushing rapids of water. More like a 2-3 mph flow (after the initial rush).

As for the "wave" of water, it DEFINITELY wasn't 4 stories high. 4 meters (in a tsunami-type of wave), possibly. 4 stories (roughly 45 feet), definitely not.
If moving floodwater can sweep away a car imagine what it will do with dirt. If you plan on wading it go ahead but I don't want to watch.
Quoting jeffs713:
It *is* really flat land, the scouring (if any) will mostly be from the speed of the water. While I am sure there is some significant force involved, this isn't a rushing rapids of water. More like a 2-3 mph flow (after the initial rush).

As for the "wave" of water, it DEFINITELY wasn't 4 stories high. 4 meters (in a tsunami-type of wave), possibly. 4 stories (roughly 45 feet), definitely not.

Yeah, I thought as much.
And the "4 stories high" thing came from Dr. M's blog above. I was taking the statement out of context intentionally. I realised that would have been a tidal wave of some magnitude..
Quoting RitaEvac:


Chaguanas!

Not Bad!! You are getting close, LOL
Near Freeport (which is not near the sea, as you would think), in a small village called Chicklands. East and south of Chaguanas. East of Point Lisas.
164. beell
Jindal: Morganza Spillway not expected to be used. May 2, 2011/wbrz.com

Jindal: News about river has gotten worse. May 3, 2011/wbrz.com

...Jindal said the Bonnet Carre spillway could be opened as early as Monday, and said opening the Morganza spillway was now "on the table"...
from beell's second link:

Meanwhile, thousands of sandbags and other supplies are being prepared. The sandbags will be delivered to areas that could see sand boils, where water pushes under the levee and floods the land on the other side, by Friday.

That's scary.
Quoting beell:
Jindal: Morganza Spillway not expected to be used. May 2, 2011/wbrz.com

Jindal: News about river has gotten worse. May 3, 2011/wbrz.com

...Jindal said the Bonnet Carre spillway could be opened as early as Monday, and said opening the Morganza spillway was now "on the table"...
If they really open Morganza, I might have to go see the Atchafalaya up close. If you are familiar with the I-10 rest area in the swamp, you can go north from there on a dirt road. That dirt road is the west levee of the Atchafalaya. If wet, 4-wheel drive recommended. Should be interesting (provided that doing so isn't detrimental to the levee and, thus, not closed.)
167. beell
Quoting aquak9:
from beell's second link:

Meanwhile, thousands of sandbags and other supplies are being prepared. The sandbags will be delivered to areas that could see sand boils, where water pushes under the levee and floods the land on the other side, by Friday.

That's scary.


It is, aqua. Hydrostatic pressure pushes the water up through the ground. I have heard that they watch the water coming up out of the boil. If it is clear, the water source is from the "water table". Not a good thing but better then the alternative:

If it starts to turn muddy, it is coming from the river and the levee is being scoured away from underneath.

Time to haul azz when that happens...

.

Discussions are underway to keep the 100tonne sightseeing catamaran Hamayuri, that landed on the roof of an inn after being swept inland 400metres, in place as a memorial of the GreatTohokuEarthquake disaster.

A refreshing change from Germany, which decided to pretend that "WWII never happened" after the Fall of the BerlinWall.
Well... I was trying to interject some of the other side of the debate, and (gently) got torn apart. That was fun.

Please allow me to clarify a few points:
1. Opening of the New Madrid Spillway was the right thing to do.
2. The losses from the spillway being opened will be significant.
3. The political and legal wrangling that went on is a travesty, and rather hyped beyond reality.
4. The residents of the spillway, while I feel for them, KNEW this was a possibility. Its a case of "this can't happen to me".
5. The COE's management of the Mississippi River is only marginally effective, and is contributing to the flooding just as much as it is preventing. What they've done is hook up a garden hose to a fire hydrant, and the hydrant just got cranked wide open.
6. Fixing the mess caused by trying to control Mother Nature is going to cost more than the controls themselves. (the ideal way to fix it, ignoring cost, is to make development in the natural floodplain "at your own risk", only protecting cities with limited levees, and leaving farmland within the 500-year floodplain to flooding, like nature intended.

I know the economic significance of allowing 500-year floodplains to be flooded without controls, but allowing a river to flood naturally will drastically reduce cities from being flooded, farmland being scoured, and the wholesale loss of human life.
Quoting beell:


It is, aqua. Hydrostatic pressure pushes the water up through the ground. I have heard that they watch the water coming up out of the boil. If it is clear, the water source is from the "water table". Not a good thing but better then the alternative:

If it starts to turn muddy, it is coming from the river and the levee is being scoured away from underneath.

Time to haul azz when that happens...

.
Once the river at BR hits 35 feet, it is above the level of the surrounding land, in places. If it really goes to 45+ feet, there, that's 10 feet of water pressure that will find every tiny path through the earthen levees. Hopefully not very many nor very large, but some sand boils will happen.
Pottery, we now have visual on you. Your location is now being tracked and big brother is watching you from in the sky!
172. beell
Quoting atmoaggie:
If they really open Morganza, I might have to go see the Atchafalaya up close. If you are familiar with the I-10 rest area in the swamp, you can go north from there on a dirt road. That dirt road is the west levee of the Atchafalaya. If wet, 4-wheel drive recommended. Should be interesting (provided that doing so isn't detrimental to the levee and, thus, not closed.)


That would have to be a must-see, atmo. Only used once, in 1973. This was right before I moved to Morgan City.

post 169- one of the best, simplest posts I've read on the subject. Straight-forward and to-the-point. Thanks for putting into words, jeffs, what's all been jumbled in my head.

Beell- I never thought of the differences in where the water might be coming from, from a water boil. Seems as if there's one water boil, there's probably fifteen more of them close by, that haven't made it to the surface. Kinda like roaches.

And how far might that water have traveled before reaching the surface? Lots of unanswered questions, and my Book of Armageddon is only filled with blank pages.
Quoting aquak9:
post 169- one of the best, simplest posts I've read on the subject. Straight-forward and to-the-point. Thanks for putting into words, jeffs, what's all been jumbled in my head.

Beell- I never thought of the differences in where the water might be coming from, from a water boil. Seems as if there's one water boil, there's probably fifteen more of them close by, that haven't made it to the surface. Kinda like roaches.

And how far might that water have traveled before reaching the surface? Lots of unanswered questions, and my Book of Armageddon is only filled with blank pages.


a9, you only need one page, with one line:

"Learn To Swim"

=)



Learn about the history, purpose and many recreational opportunities offered by the Bonnet Carre Spillway, located between Montz and Norco in St. Charles Parish, Louisiana, just 30 minutes outside of the city of New Orleans.

hahaha, thank you keysie. Please call me aqua.

I can swim...well I can dog-paddle. Thought oughtta be good enough!
Quoting ILwthrfan:
Gas prices up to $4.21(unleaded), $4.31(leaded), and $4.41(premium) here in Central Illinois. You should see the crippling effect that is beggining take effect on the local economy. We've had several businesses starting to close up around here. NOT GOOD!




Same prices here in Jupiter, it's insane. I spent $100 bucks on gas in both cars this past weekend alone. $20 bucks doesn't even get me a quarter of a tank anymore.
Quoting aquak9:
hahaha, thank you keysie. Please call me aqua.

I can swim...well I can dog-paddle. Thought oughtta be good enough!

You got it! Water dogs will have no trouble surviving!

Ice melt, waters rising, rivers flooding, bigger storms...oh boy!
Quoting atmoaggie:
Once the river at BR hits 35 feet, it is above the level of the surrounding land, in places. If it really goes to 45+ feet, there, that's 10 feet of water pressure that will find every tiny path through the earthen levees. Hopefully not very many nor very large, but some sand boils will happen.


I lived in a subdivsion below the levee at River Road and Brightside Dr in BR. In '08 when the River hit 44 feet, we had quite a bit of water bubbling up from the ground. I don't remember if it was clear or muddy, but I do remember it STUNK to high heaven after a few days. (Imagine a covering of stagnant water...)

A few houses in my area had a bit (0.5") of flooding if the water came up through the slab. My subdivision didn't have that, though some people had a really soggy yard or standing water on the driveway.
Quoting RitaEvac:


Chaguanas!
Is that a cross between a chicken and an iguana?
The confluence of the Ohio and Mississippi rivers is normally ~279feet above sea-level at FortDefiance. A small bit north, Cairo (~315feet above sea-level) was very close to becoming flooded.

The MississippiRiver was already starting to overspill across the "4story" levee section at BirdsPoint (nearly due south of Cairo). Knock out 2miles of that barrier, and "4 stories of water" begin scouring across the NewMadrid floodway.
Yeah the height of the pseudo"tsunami" decreases with distance (due to spreading sideways and forward across the farmland) from the new opening, but the initial surge was still huge, still gouged and carried away large amounts of the soil beneath.
Quoting jeffs713:
Well... I was trying to interject some of the other side of the debate, and (gently) got torn apart. That was fun.

Please allow me to clarify a few points:
1. Opening of the New Madrid Spillway was the right thing to do.
2. The losses from the spillway being opened will be significant.
3. The political and legal wrangling that went on is a travesty, and rather hyped beyond reality.
4. The residents of the spillway, while I feel for them, KNEW this was a possibility. Its a case of "this can't happen to me".
5. The COE's management of the Mississippi River is only marginally effective, and is contributing to the flooding just as much as it is preventing. What they've done is hook up a garden hose to a fire hydrant, and the hydrant just got cranked wide open.
6. Fixing the mess caused by trying to control Mother Nature is going to cost more than the controls themselves. (the ideal way to fix it, ignoring cost, is to make development in the natural floodplain "at your own risk", only protecting cities with limited levees, and leaving farmland within the 500-year floodplain to flooding, like nature intended.

I know the economic significance of allowing 500-year floodplains to be flooded without controls, but allowing a river to flood naturally will drastically reduce cities from being flooded, farmland being scoured, and the wholesale loss of human life.


Good post and I agree. It's just one of those things that no matter what, some will have to sacrifice for the benefit of others in greater numbers.
..."Sometimes the needs of the many, outweigh the needs of a few, or the one"..

Spock
185. beell
174. aquak9 3:41 PM GMT on May 04, 2011

Beell- I never thought of the differences in where the water might be coming from, from a water boil. Seems as if there's one water boil, there's probably fifteen more of them close by, that haven't made it to the surface. Kinda like roaches.

And how far might that water have traveled before reaching the surface? Lots of unanswered questions, and my Book of Armageddon is only filled with blank pages.


As nrt would say, that is above my pay grade. But it appears the water table sand boils/seeps can occur quite some distance from the river. I would guess the ones adjacent to the levees would be of greatest concern.
Quoting beell:
174. aquak9 3:41 PM GMT on May 04, 2011

Beell- I never thought of the differences in where the water might be coming from, from a water boil. Seems as if there's one water boil, there's probably fifteen more of them close by, that haven't made it to the surface. Kinda like roaches.

And how far might that water have traveled before reaching the surface? Lots of unanswered questions, and my Book of Armageddon is only filled with blank pages.


As nrt would say, that is above my pay grade. But it appears the water table sand boils/seeps can occur quite some distance from the river. I would guess the ones adjacent to the levees would be of greatest concern.


Right, typically water pumps take care of those that boil up far inland from the levees. And yes, the boils on the levees themselves are of greatest concern and probably the cause a many levee failures - would be interestng to see a % of levees failures from overtopping vs. boils leading a breach.


Matt Zager, right, a civil engineer for the US Army Corps of Engineers, and Allen Giger, a surveyor or the US Army Corps of Engineers, check on a small levee breach in Maquoketa on Monday morning, July 26, 2010. The breach is what they call a boil and they said it wasn't a big concern but something they will keep an eye on. (Justin Hayworth/The Register)
Quoting aquak9:
post 169- one of the best, simplest posts I've read on the subject. Straight-forward and to-the-point. Thanks for putting into words, jeffs, what's all been jumbled in my head.


Thank you, and you're welcome! :)
Quoting kwgirl:
Is that a cross between a chicken and an iguana?

LOL Close!
The Chaguanas were a tribe of Amerindians that hung out around here.
Before "we" got here, obviously.
Muddy Mississippi water meet fairly clear brackish Pontchartrain water. This is what happens when the Bonnet Carre spillway is opened.
(Pic from ISS in 2008)


(click for bigger version)
Quoting jeffs713:
Well... I was trying to interject some of the other side of the debate, and (gently) got torn apart. That was fun.


If I am the party guilty of the "tearing apart" please accept my apologies.

As I read back I may have personalized a reaction on my part of the generally dismissive tone on the blog regarding the consequences of opening the floodway.

You raise good points. I was, for a time, a member of a river protection group (Friends of the South River - a branch of the South Fork of the Shenandoah) so I am well aware of the folly of turning our rivers into drainage ditches and the fact that much of our farm land is stolen wetland. However, particularly in the case of the Mighty Mississip, that cat escaped the bag years ago and had generations of kittens so herding them all back in the sack is a moot point.

Surely there was no choice but to open the floodway, but as was so well said, it is a "grave choice". Were it not for the larger potential for loss of life I might debate which is more easily replaced buildings or top soil and whether we have properly assigned value to our nations resources, but that is a moot point as well.

It is unfortunate but the legal maneuverings were built into the system years ago. The losses we are potentially avoiding as a nation greatly out way the losses in the flood-way but the compensation provided will be far from enough to make the folks there "whole" as anyone who has been through one of these events will attest.
Quoting pottery:

Just had to run upstairs and put some clothes on....
Did you remember your tinfoil hat?
What many dont understand about the Miss River,,here at least,,is that the River annually flooded into Lake P for eons before it was Levied in the Last 2 centuries..


What folly man creates,,nature usually ignores in due time,

Always

Here's one to ponder,,who expects a East Pac Storm to form First..since the Season there starts May 15,,or do you Expect the Atlantic Basin to spit one out before June 1?

Im gonna go with the Atlantic,,
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Did you remember your tinfoil hat?

it was all I could find....
seems like everything else is in the wash.
(viewer discretion is advised)

NICE post at 192.
Quoting Patrap:
What many dont understand about the Miss River,,here at least,,is that the River annually flooded into Lake P for eons before it was Levied in the Last 2 centuries..


What folly man creates,,nature usually ignores in due time,

Always

Yep. Would be nice if the river water wasn't carrying so much fertilizer, now, though. Algal blooms, nutrient depletion, and then anoxia coming to the Lake, hopefully not too severe. (But going to happen...the scale of which is unknown, I think.)

A presentation on the subject by hydrodynamic modelers at UNO (and some good people I've had the privilege to work with): http://www.lacpra.org/assets/docs/Georgiou_Modeli ng_BC_BTR_June_2008.ppt
Quoting Patrap:
Here's one to ponder,,who expects a East Pac Storm to form First..since the Season there starts May 15,,or do you Expect the Atlantic Basin to spit one out before June 1?

Im gonna go with the Atlantic,,

I am with you on that too.
I see more pro's than con's in the Atl right now.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Yep. Would be nice if the river water wasn't carrying so much fertilizer, now, though. Algal blooms, nutrient depletion, and then anoxia coming to the Lake, hopefully not too severe. (But going to happen...the scale of which is unknown, I think.)

A presentation on the subject by hydrodynamic modelers at UNO (and some good people I've had the privilege to work with): http://www.lacpra.org/assets/docs/Georgiou_Modeli ng_BC_BTR_June_2008.ppt

They need to dump a zillion water hyacinthes and azola weed in that lake. Today.
The plus in that is, you will see an up-tick in the local economy when they have to clear it all out again (the weeds I mean).

What goes round comes round.

Always. (to quote Pat)
Quoting atmoaggie:
Clearly, those are not true color images. The Mississippi, even up there and especially after all of the rainfall, is nothing close to blue water. Basically looks like very runny mud.

(Re: Pics such as this one.)
Agreed - Sorry didn't intend to convey that. I grew up in Hannibal, MO and the water there is dirty enough that I never once considered jumping in it!
Popped my head outside (my only reliable met source) and noticed the clouds are building and the breeze has picked up. Cold front is coming through in WCFL.

Still no rain..."you're killing me Smalls!"
149 atmoaggie
Quoting aspectre:
80 LS1redline "Be sure to scroll to the lower right of the link I posted to see the satellite images of before and after the Birds Point levee being blown too."
[before and after pictures]
"Clearly, those are not true color images. The Mississippi, even up there and especially after all of the rainfall, is nothing close to blue water. Basically looks like very runny mud."

The explanation on the use of pseudo-coloring to represent "a combination of visible and infrared light to increase contrast between water and land..." is why I inserted that link into LS1redline's originally non-linked comment.
203. beell
Quoting atmoaggie:
Yep. Would be nice if the river water wasn't carrying so much fertilizer, now, though. Algal blooms, nutrient depletion, and then anoxia coming to the Lake, hopefully not too severe. (But going to happen...the scale of which is unknown, I think.)

A presentation on the subject by hydrodynamic modelers at UNO (and some good people I've had the privilege to work with): http://www.lacpra.org/assets/docs/Georgiou_Modeli ng_BC_BTR_June_2008.ppt


Not to mention, the spring rise probably coincides with a spring-time spike in the use of pesticides and fertilzer.


Quoting aspectre:
149 atmoaggie
Quoting aspectre:
80 LS1redline "Be sure to scroll to the lower right of the link I posted to see the satellite images of before and after the Birds Point levee being blown too."
[before and after pictures]
"Clearly, those are not true color images. The Mississippi, even up there and especially after all of the rainfall, is nothing close to blue water. Basically looks like very runny mud."

The explanation on the use of pseudo-coloring on "a combination of visible and infrared light to increase contrast between water and land..." is why I inserted that link into LS1redline's non-linked comment.
I know. Just wanted to make that point clear to everyone.
The MS river is never blue...unless there is a huge windex spill somewhere...
Quoting beell:


Not to mention, the spring rise probably coincides with a spring-time spike in the use of pesticides and fertilzer.


One benefit of rains (sort of). Doubt if folks have been able to get into the fields, even with high flotation tracked equipment.
"One who knows the Mississippi will promptly aver -not aloud but to himself -that 10,000 river commissions… cannot tame that lawless stream, cannot curb it or confine it, cannot say to it go here, or go there, and make it obey; cannot save a shore which it has sentence; cannot bar its path with an obstruction which it will not tear down, dance over, and laugh at."
-Mark Twain
Quoting atmoaggie:
"One who knows the Mississippi will promptly aver -not aloud but to himself -that 10,000 river commissions… cannot tame that lawless stream, cannot curb it or confine it, cannot say to it go here, or go there, and make it obey; cannot save a shore which it has sentence; cannot bar its path with an obstruction which it will not tear down, dance over, and laugh at."
-Mark Twain

Whooooow! (Ric Flair style)
Boy huge towering clouds building here in Orlando. I would say thunderstorms are about to form at anytime now. Bring it on as we need the rain!
210. Jax82
Quoting RastaSteve:
Boy huge towering clouds building here in Orlando. I would say thunderstorms are about to form at anytime now. Bring it on as we need the rain!


I wouldnt hold your breathe, doesnt look like much happening. The front is gonna pass you soon.

May the 4th.............be with you!!!!
Quoting DestinJeff:
Ahem ... hurricane season cometh, like the grand-finale of the 2011 weather fireworks show.

This is not the end, not even the beginning of the end, but perhaps the end of the beginning. "WC"
And also wit U
Quoting DestinJeff:
Ahem ... hurricane season cometh, like the grand-finale of the 2011 weather fireworks show.

Er, you think we gonna get some storms?
:):))
May the 5th be with you...
Still humid and hot here (92 today)
Some clouds around, but no rain on me, though the airport (enter PIARCO in the search box above) recorded some showers.
Rainy Season starts in June...

On another note, the SAL has been very slight this year so far in terms of dust.
Less dust, more chance of T-Waves holding together when that time comes (other things being equal, of course)
Notice a lot of moisture and cloud activity building from the Bay of Campeche ne towards central gulf of Mexico. Also quite a shift of winds from the North to the east. May spin up a little action although no real surface pressure drops yet.
Quoting gordydunnot:
Notice a lot of moisture and cloud activity building from the Bay of Campeche ne towards central gulf of Mexico. Also quite a shift of winds from the North to the east. May spin up a little action although no real surface pressure drops yet.


There won't be any surface developement in the Gulf but what will happen is as the next short wave digs in a little furter south than the one today it will pull this moisture across FL and aid in the lifting process to get thunderstorms going across the penisula on Friday.
220. beell
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
One benefit of rains (sort of). Doubt if folks have been able to get into the fields, even with high flotation tracked equipment.


Wouldn't Grandpa give a whistle at that one, Shen!.

Nothing floats like a Deere...er...uh...well, something like that.
The NOAA is out with the latest stats from last week's monstrous tornado outbreak:

DATE | REPORTED | NOAA ESTIMATE| SURVEYED & CONFIRMED

25-26 | 55 | 40 | 25

26-27 | 111 | 75 | 40

27-28 | 268 | 190 | 132

TOTAL | 434 | 305 | 197


So last week's outbreak has already exceeded the 1974 Super Outbreak by more than 33%. If the NOAA's estimated 305 stands, it will, obviously, have more than doubled the previous record holder.

The current confirmed breakdown by strength (though NOAA says these are minimum ["at least"] strengths, and may be reclassified as more data comes in):

EF0: 55
EF1: 60
EF2: 47
EF3: 21
EF4: 12
EF5: 2

On the sorta good news front, the death toll continues to drop as duplicates are removed and errors are corrected for: as of now, its stands at 318 (with 309 of those occuring between 8AM Wednesday and 8AM Thursday).
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
May the 5th be with you...


Im gonna have to take the 5th
Thanks Rasta, just looking at the w. vapor in motion looks like Pottery my get nailed from the south. Usually only has to worry about what's coming from his east. And if you care to comment that's an extremely large ULL in the central Atlantic we have been lucky the last few seasons with this feature. Wonder if it will persist.
Patrap if you take the 5th about 70 more times you got a good chance to be governor of Florida.
225. DDR
Quoting pottery:
Still humid and hot here (92 today)
Some clouds around, but no rain on me, though the airport (enter PIARCO in the search box above) recorded some showers.
Rainy Season starts in June...

On another note, the SAL has been very slight this year so far in terms of dust.
Less dust, more chance of T-Waves holding together when that time comes (other things being equal, of course)

Hi pottery,2 or 3 heavy showers fell here,everything is just mud and weeds all over.
226. DDR
How is your calabash tree?i see some with new leaves all over the place.bbl
Quoting gordydunnot:
Patrap if you take the 5th about 70 more times you got a good chance to be governor of Florida.
I have a sneaking suspicion that Patrap's response would be something on the order of "Thanks, but no thanks" if that job fell in his lap.
Did anyone see they have developed a wave powered buoy that was released in April, to be followed by more in the future. They will be less expensive and also mobile, being able to be directed in to the action so to speak.Link
Quoting Patrap:


Im gonna have to take the 5th


Keep your hands off of my fifth, buddy!!!!!
Quoting DDR:
How is your calabash tree?i see some with new leaves all over the place.bbl

Wha' ?
Mine has not even lost it's leaves. But that's happening slowly now...
The thing is, Rainy Season cannot begin until it has new leaves, and since it still has it's old ones, I am confused!

It must be the effects of Man-Made Climate Change.

(opens a beer, and runs from the room...)
Quoting Neapolitan:
The NOAA is out with the latest stats from last week's monstrous tornado outbreak:

DATE | REPORTED | NOAA ESTIMATE| SURVEYED & CONFIRMED

25-26 | 55 | 40 | 25

26-27 | 111 | 75 | 40

27-28 | 268 | 190 | 132

TOTAL | 434 | 305 | 197


So last week's outbreak has already exceeded the 1974 Super Outbreak by more than 33%. If the NOAA's estimated 305 stands, it will, obviously, have more than doubled the previous record holder.

The current confirmed breakdown by strength (though NOAA says these are minimum ["at least"] strengths, and may be reclassified as more data comes in):

EF0: 55
EF1: 60
EF2: 47
EF3: 21
EF4: 12
EF5: 2

On the sorta good news front, the death toll continues to drop as duplicates are removed and errors are corrected for: as of now, its stands at 318 (with 319 of those occuring between 8AM Wednesday and 8AM Thursday).

Eh??
I do believe a Gum ball Machine could beat the Skeletor Guy easily next election.

Im more a Orange Julius kinda guy though.





Quoting pottery:

Eh??

Hmmm, how did that get there? I see "309". ;-\
Couple of models showing high pressure in the Atlantic shifting into low pressure from this feature.

mmmm, yeah.

Orange Julius for Guv'nuh. Just give me a fifth and I'll vote for anything.
Well it looks as if Orlando is going to get rocked this afternoon. Already have been some very strong storms that rolled by to my east and the storms are rebuilding right over western Seminole County. We need the rain and will take whatever i can get.
It's finally starting to rain and boy is it black out here.
239. xcool



quite interesting looking at image...
Quoting xcool:



quite interesting looking at image...

Honestly, I'd be more concerned about the low system coming into the plains, with a 60-70kt LLJ.
241. xcool
;)
Quoting Neapolitan:

Hmmm, how did that get there? I see "309". ;-\

what's a digit, between friends?
:)
Quoting RastaSteve:
Well it looks as if Orlando is going to get rocked this afternoon. Already have been some very strong storms that rolled by to my east and the storms are rebuilding right over western Seminole County. We need the rain and will take whatever i can get.


The cells are isolated at best. Consider yourself lucky if you were fortunate enough to have one pass through.

Neat feature..
FWIW, ignored my first handle today.
I have a feeling that sub-tropical storm #2 wants to form (unofficially would be #2). The circulation is just now getting into 22C waters.

good article on background to current midwestern flood: http://www.wildlandspermaculture.com/thewaterdidit /
Quoting Neapolitan:
The NOAA is out with the latest stats from last week's monstrous tornado outbreak:

DATE | REPORTED | NOAA ESTIMATE| SURVEYED & CONFIRMED

25-26 | 55 | 40 | 25

26-27 | 111 | 75 | 40

27-28 | 268 | 190 | 132

TOTAL | 434 | 305 | 197


So last week's outbreak has already exceeded the 1974 Super Outbreak by more than 33%. If the NOAA's estimated 305 stands, it will, obviously, have more than doubled the previous record holder.

The current confirmed breakdown by strength (though NOAA says these are minimum ["at least"] strengths, and may be reclassified as more data comes in):

EF0: 55
EF1: 60
EF2: 47
EF3: 21
EF4: 12
EF5: 2

On the sorta good news front, the death toll continues to drop as duplicates are removed and errors are corrected for: as of now, its stands at 318 (with 309 of those occuring between 8AM Wednesday and 8AM Thursday).


aren't there still a bunch of people missing?
Quoting StAugustineFL:
FWIW, ignored my first handle today.
? About the most civil day, here, ever.
I must have missed something...something that I would be better off missing anyway.
;-)
Quoting lickitysplit:
good article on background to current midwestern flood: http://www.wildlandspermaculture.com/thewaterdidit /

Link that works. (You can't have any spaces in a URL)
Quoting Patrap:


Im gonna have to take the 5th


i'll drink it
i'm not understanding why there is not more images of the aftermath of the levees being blown up.

FWIW, I only learned what FWIW meant a few weeks ago.

Played with that acronym a VERY long time before I gave up and asked...
“Feelings about this are all over the place.

“The truth is, Cairo could have been evacuated and flooded and it wouldn’t have caused the economic devastation that has been caused by flooding the farmland.


Link
Quoting atmoaggie:
? About the most civil day, here, ever.
I must have missed something...something that I would be better off missing anyway.
;-)


Atmo, you didn't miss anything. It's more of a lifetime achievement award. It's all good.
? About the most civil day, here, ever.

I think it was the force of the fifth we've been passing around....
2011's well on track on becoming one of the most active tornado seasons ever..
Quoting xcool:



quite interesting looking at image...


at 216 hours, you might as well be looking at abstract art :)
I thought it WAS abstra-

oh, never mind.

This feature doesnt look so good on wv. I had a related question. How does the Atlantic upper level pattern look for may development? Looks like its conducive to subtropical development but what about tropical, west Caribbean?
pretty big fire in the Okeefenokee swamp, just north of the Fla/Ga border.

Yep, that's smoke you see on the radar.


Mississippi River levee breach floods 130,000 acres of Missouri farmland [Video]
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs


Flood fears spread south along the Mississippi
ADRIAN SAINZ, Associated Press, JIM SUHR,
Associated Press
Updated 06:46 p.m., Wednesday, May 4, 2011


Quoting winter123:

This feature doesnt look so good on wv. I had a related question. How does the Atlantic upper level pattern look for may development? Looks like its conducive to subtropical development but what about tropical, west Caribbean?


Yea there's some dry air to the west which will be pulled in; but there is a decent amount of cold air above it, and SST are higher than normal around 30N.

West Caribbean or Gulf probably won't be too conductive until June because the AO went negative, which means the Arctic is pushing more towards CONUS rather than residing at the pole. So this forces sub-tropical jets from the Pacific to travel more to the south, increasing vertical shear in those regions.

Quoting aspectre:

Discussions are underway to keep the 100tonne sightseeing catamaran Hamayuri, that landed on the roof of an inn after being swept inland 400metres, in place as a memorial of the GreatTohokuEarthquake disaster.

A refreshing change from Germany, which decided to pretend that "WWII never happened" after the Fall of the BerlinWall.


I don't what exactly is refreshing about that but I have to disagree on the statement regarding Germany and the memory of WWII.

Gedächtniskirche right in the centre of Berlin

Or all the memorial sites at former concentration camps, e.g. the one in Dachau which I visited when I was in Secondary School.

A guided tour of a former concentration camp is more or less mandatory for all students aged 15-17 in Germany and these excursions are partly funded by the ministry of education.
Quoting Patrap:
Here's one to ponder,,who expects a East Pac Storm to form First..since the Season there starts May 15,,or do you Expect the Atlantic Basin to spit one out before June 1?

Im gonna go with the Atlantic,,

I expect the WPAC to pop out it's 3rd TD in the next 24-48hrs. 93W is looking really good.



THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.3N
131.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 129.0E, APPROXIMATELY 180 NM EAST
OF MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
AN IMPROVED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ASSOCIATED WITH
INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION ALTHOUGH STILL UNORGANIZED. A 041116Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND A
040922Z WINDSAT PASS DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT
CENTRAL WINDS. ADDITIONALLY, A BUOY APPROXIMATELY 100 NM AWAY IS
REPORTING A 1005 MB SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE LLCC IS LOCATED BENEATH THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. SEE REF A (WTPN21
PGTW 041400) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
UPGRADED TO GOOD
.
Hey CRS- good save. I tried to grab it from the quote, but I couldn't figure out the closure code.

Too cute.
haha, brilliant, Caicos.

Now you're giving me ideas... The NHC could do something similar with Florida-casters when they refresh the adivsory page with the new track forecast too often. I wish I had my laptop with that awesome drawing tool...
Hey everyone - awaiting today's fcst for the River's level in BR/Red River/Donaldsonville.
Quoting aquak9:
? About the most civil day, here, ever.

I think it was the force of the fifth we've been passing around....


It's because it's Star Wars Day - Use the fourth aqua, use the forth
272. beell
RIVER FORECAST...LOWER OHIO/MISSISSIPPI RIVER...
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SLIDELL LA
423PM CDT Wed May 4 2011

BATON ROUGE 35 35.9 1.0 36.9 37.9 39.0 40.1 41.1 47.5 5/23P

Flood stage, current stage, crest and crest date in bold.
LMRFC

There is a "Previous Versions" at upper right of the linked page if you're tracking day to day changes.
quiet here. Wheres everybody? Looking for some river info. anything to be watching for?
Hottest place on the planet today ... Matam, Senegal - inland due east of the Cape Verde islands. 115 degrees, < 30% humidity.

Matam is in the Sahal, a semi-arid strip of land between tropical Africa to the south and the Sahara desert to the north. The Sahal has an effect on hurricane development, I believe by providing heat for convection on the northern side of lows traversing west in the ITCZ. Please correct if I am in error.

Anyways, it's heating up :)

WTO
ESL by LSU HURRICANES Picture Gallery



Hurricane Ivan, September 2004, GOES Water Vapor
Quoting WaterWitch11:
“Feelings about this are all over the place.

“The truth is, Cairo could have been evacuated and flooded and it wouldn’t have caused the economic devastation that has been caused by flooding the farmland.


Link


So now that the farmland is flooded, expect it to be used as the the excuse for grain prices going up this summer, even though most or all of that wheat and corn likely goes overseas. If so, then we'll know there is corporate spin behind it.

Yes, I'm cynical, but I'm willing to make such a prediction just to see if it comes to pass in the spirit of gathering data and testing theories. I just hope I am wrong!

My take is that the farmland is not ConAgra, or it would never have been allowed. Unless they got a big kickback/subsidy/tax break for allowing it, and then the subcontractor farmers get completely left out of that game.
Quoting WoodyFL:
quiet here. Wheres everybody? Looking for some river info. anything to be watching for?


Going to be a HUGE deal for any plant north of NORCO, LA here in a week and a half or so (Carre spillway will protect NORCO and NO and Chalmette/Mereaux). Our docks will probably be under water near the crest date of the 23rd. So big impact on refining and chemicals.
We have Cargill here in Resverve,LA above the Bonnet Carre Spillway a few Miles,,I used to tie up and release Grain ,Big Grain Tankers ,some with 8 Holds.


Thats why the Deep port in NOLA and Above to Baton Rouge is so vitally Important for the Nations economy.

Steel,Fuels,Grain,Cars,aluminum,copper,all modes of economic production and trade leave via the Deep water Below Baton Rouge to points Globally.

And the flooding to the farmland is catastrophic and complete if it you or your community.


The Big Muddy may just set some new records,,pray tell to God the New Madrid dosent shake out a major during it.

Dat would be BAD Mojo.



Quoting beell:
RIVER FORECAST...LOWER OHIO/MISSISSIPPI RIVER...
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER FORECAST CENTER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SLIDELL LA
423PM CDT Wed May 4 2011

BATON ROUGE 35 35.9 1.0 36.9 37.9 39.0 40.1 41.1 47.5 5/23P

Flood stage, current stage, crest and crest date in bold.
LMRFC

There is a "Previous Versions" at upper right of the linked page if you're tracking day to day changes.


I have been tracking it for a while now - figured it could get interesting but this has surprised me. Thanks to Dr Masters and everyone on here.
Quoting Patrap:
We have Cargill here in Resverve,LA above the Bonnet Carre Spillway a few Miles,,I used to tie up and release Grain ,Big Grain Tankers ,some with 8 Holds.


Thats why the Deep port in NOLA and Above to Baton Rouge is so vitally Important for the Nations economy.

Steel,Fuels,Grain,Cars,aluminum,copper,all modes of economic production and trade leave via the Deep water Below Baton Rouge to points Globally.

And the flooding to the farmland is catastrophic and complete if it you or your community.


The Big Muddy may just set some new records,,pray tell to God the New Madrid dosent shake out a major during it.

Dat would be BAD Mojo.





No doubt. It's the lifeblood - why the industry calls it just "the River". :)

Enjoy rd 2 of Jazz Fest for me!!
Quoting CanesfanatUT:


No doubt. It's the lifeblood - why the industry calls it just "the River". :)

Enjoy rd 2 of Jazz Fest for me!!


Thannx,I Wish,,have r shoulder arthroscopy at East Jefferson in the am..

Boo Hizz

Galactic plays tomorrow too.
Have the "Memphis in May" festivals been canceled? It is the best time of the year there this time of year.
Damn River!
Lord knows I don't wanna post a youtube song here, but man oh man...Galactic's Heart of Steel can make a dead man dance.

It's probably the hottest, sexiest swaying song I've ever heard. You just can't listen to it without wanting to get your groove on.

Enjoy it, Pat.
"Deep down inside..."

Link
(blushes)

oh Hi nea!
Quoting Patrap:
We have Cargill here in Resverve,LA above the Bonnet Carre Spillway a few Miles,,I used to tie up and release Grain ,Big Grain Tankers ,some with 8 Holds.


Thats why the Deep port in NOLA and Above to Baton Rouge is so vitally Important for the Nations economy.

Steel,Fuels,Grain,Cars,aluminum,copper,all modes of economic production and trade leave via the Deep water Below Baton Rouge to points Globally.

And the flooding to the farmland is catastrophic and complete if it you or your community.


The Big Muddy may just set some new records,,pray tell to God the New Madrid dosent shake out a major during it.

Dat would be BAD Mojo.



madrid shaker is possible with all the water flowing that would be the icing on the cake i reckon
(Memphis, TN) – Memphis in May International Festival organizers announced today that due to the historic flooding, the venue for the 2011 World Championship Barbecue Cooking Contest will be moved.

Forced to leave Tom Lee Park due to the rising waters of the Mississippi River, organizers will relocate the event to Tiger Lane in the Memphis Fairgrounds. The dates of the event will remain the same, May 12 – 14, 2011. All other aspects of the event, but the location, will be as scheduled.
Quoting scooster67:
(Memphis, TN) %u2013 Memphis in May International Festival organizers announced today that due to the historic flooding, the venue for the 2011 World Championship Barbecue Cooking Contest will be moved.

Forced to leave Tom Lee Park due to the rising waters of the Mississippi River, organizers will relocate the event to Tiger Lane in the Memphis Fairgrounds. The dates of the event will remain the same, May 12 %u2013 14, 2011. All other aspects of the event, but the location, will be as scheduled.

Well, that won't be the same. I've been to MIM twice in the last five years; great event.

Heya, aqua. You like the funk, huh? Heart of Steel has been on my iPod for a while. It's a good one.

Speaking of songs that somehow seemed better before they were twisted and overexposed on a TV commercial, I kinda like this one. Or did: Link
Quoting BarometerGirl:


So now that the farmland is flooded, expect it to be used as the the excuse for grain prices going up this summer, even though most or all of that wheat and corn likely goes overseas. If so, then we'll know there is corporate spin behind it.

Yes, I'm cynical, but I'm willing to make such a prediction just to see if it comes to pass in the spirit of gathering data and testing theories. I just hope I am wrong!

My take is that the farmland is not ConAgra, or it would never have been allowed. Unless they got a big kickback/subsidy/tax break for allowing it, and then the subcontractor farmers get completely left out of that game.
For what it's worth (a lot if you've got the money) grain futures are through the roof and almost a sure bet to go higher. The drought in the European grain belt (Ukraine and Russia) and the severe weather in the US preventing the harvest of the winter wheat crop are already affecting world food prices. No conspiracy there just supply and demand.
U.S. to blow third hole in levee as floods worsen

The government prepared to blow up a third section of a Mississippi River levee on Wednesday to manage flooding, as a wall of water roared down the nation's largest river system, threatening towns and cities all the way to the Gulf of Mexico.

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers blew up a two-mile section of the Birds Point levee Monday night, inundating about 130,000 acres of Missouri farmland in a desperate attempt to ease flooding in towns in Illinois and Kentucky.

Water levels did recede but a second, smaller section was detonated Tuesday afternoon to allow water back into the river. The third and last blast was scheduled for Wednesday evening once explosive materials reached the site, Corps spokesman Jim Pogue said.

The Corps, which is responsible for the system of locks and dams along the Mississippi River, would then turn its attention to the growing threat further south.

The levee system in Mississippi is holding for now but it has never been tested like this before, officials said.

"Compared to the Great Mississippi Flood of 1927 this flood is going to be a lot nastier," said Marty Pope, senior hydrologist for the National Weather Service in Jackson.

Reuters Article...

You know, some of us wrote a few weeks ago of the massive flooding that was forecast, and were chastised roundly here by some saying the northern snows had been gone for weeks so the threat of any major flooding had long passed.

Just sayin'... ;-)
hey y'all since you're posting utube here's mine: PolarisZero7
294. Jax82
Quoting aquak9:
pretty big fire in the Okeefenokee swamp, just north of the Fla/Ga border.

Yep, that's smoke you see on the radar.




You can see it, you can smell it, and it was a nice sunset with the smoke turning the sun and sky red! Windows are open, its gonna be a nice night :)
stop being funny beell
chicklit- I always enjoyed the chord changes of Zero7. Good stuff.

Nea- I wish I dreamed like that video.

Doc did a blog, oh a coupla months back? saying the flooding was gonna be BAD. But it's not over yet...
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
stop being funny beell


SNORK!! SQUAWK!!! ERRKKKGGHHH!!! CHOKING ON FOOD!!

BEELL!!!!
Quoting aquak9:


SNORK!! SQUAWK!!! ERRKKKGGHHH!!! CHOKING ON FOOD!!

BEELL!!!!


You rang???
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
For what it's worth (a lot if you've got the money) grain futures are through the roof and almost a sure bet to go higher. The drought in the European grain belt (Ukraine and Russia) and the severe weather in the US preventing the harvest of the winter wheat crop are already affecting world food prices. No conspiracy there just supply and demand.

Just go ahead and bet on the grain futures. Many hearts have been broken on the sure thing.
hi squawk! errr... I was just, err, getting over much needed laughter attack....granny smith and all....
One good turn deserves another.ShelterfromtheStormLink

that's a pretty amazing cover, there, chik.
Hey aquak, don't get me started.
I have this album (Blood on the Tracks); one of my faves:
BucketsofRain
Quoting twincomanche:

Just go ahead and bet on the grain futures. Many hearts have been broken on the sure thing.
No fear don't have $$. Just saying. Here I thought I was the pinko-lefty-socialist and you were the defender of the capitalist way!
glad you fixed the link, chik, I was waiting.
310. beell
Quoting sunlinepr:


All I see is a big heartbreak of a ridge building over Texas...

Happy Mother's Day, aqua. And to all the other Mothers.
Quoting beell:


All I see is a big heartbreak of a ridge building over Texas...

oh no....

g'night wunderbuds.
Quoting Chicklit:
hey y'all since you're posting utube here's mine: PolarisZero7


Special music at least for me... Trip hop
Quoting Gearsts:

XX/AOI/XE
Thanks beell, you're a sweetheart.

g'nite friends, go in peace.
Quoting Patrap:


Thannx,I Wish,,have r shoulder arthroscopy at East Jefferson in the am..

Boo Hizz

Galactic plays tomorrow too.


Ah man - best of luck, sir. Heal up quick and let the good times roll.
Link

I'm still trying to figure out how to embed a video..here's hoping.
Quoting BarometerGirl:
Link

I'm still trying to figure out how to embed a video..here's hoping.


Every Youtube video has some buttons underneath them. (Like / Add to / Share)

Click on Share / Click on Embed

The embeded code will appear... with some checkmark boxes

Before copying it --click and checkmark (Use old embed code - This blog accepts only old embed code) and select the size you want to embed... I usually use the 480x390

Select the size by clicking on it; that will update the embed code

Finally, select the embeded code, copy and paste it directly to the blog

Hope this helps...
Neap I did not know all the flooding down south was because of the snow pack up north I thought it was mainly because of the foot plus rains but what do I or anybody else know.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

XX/AOI/XE
thanks
320. beell
Quoting eddy12:
Neap I did not know all the flooding down south was because of the snow pack up north I thought it was mainly because of the foot plus rains but what do I or anybody else know.


The river was well into a significant spring rise already. Snowmelt played a big part in that. No doubt.

What changed was the 10-20" rains over the Arkansas and Ohio River Valleys over the past few weeks.

Forecasted/modeled crests took a substantial 2-3 foot rise early this week for the lower part of the Mississippi in response.
Quoting Chicklit:
Hey aquak, don't get me started.
I have this album (Blood on the Tracks); one of my faves:
BucketsofRain

Thanks very much.
beell Weeks ago about the snow pack was the flooding in the red river valley of north dakota and minnesota but all that water flows north not south. He also claimed it was from all the snow in canada of which he claimed and I quote {many rivers have their headwaters} when I asked him to name these rivers I never heard back. In minnesota alone the water in rivers flow north to hudson bay east to lake superior and on to the atlantic ocean and south to gulf of mexico.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
madrid shaker is possible with all the water flowing that would be the icing on the cake i reckon


So hypothetically, if the New Madrid fault just decided to do a big slip/erupt under a flooded plain, or under the riverbed while this flood is happening, would it cause a wave(s)? It's a reverse fault, but not sure if that would cause enough thrust at all, or would any water above just go down into the cracks that are already occuring along that fault? It would make a good movie in any case.
324. beell
First forecast is from April 28th. Using Red River Landing as representative of this part of the river. Second line is from this evening's forecast.

Flood Stage, Current Stage, and Crest and Crest Date in bold. A 5.5'change here.
Buncha folks sat up and took notice.

RED RIVER LNDG 48 48.1 0.4 48.8 49.2 50.1 51.2 52.3 60.0 05/21A
RED RIVER LNDG 48 53.3 0.9 54.4 55.5 56.7 57.9 59.0 65.5 5/23A
LMRFC
red river of the north has nothing to do with the mississippi your reading must be and i'm guessing here from down by the red river of the south
326. beell
Quoting eddy12:
red river of the north has nothing to do with the mississippi your reading must be and i'm guessing here from down by the red river of the south


Yup.
thank you beell the point i was trying to make is his post 292 claims that he made this prediction of major flooding down south from the snow pack is a falsehood at best and an outright lie at worst he did not even know that the red river of the north flows north and never admitted he was wrong if i am wrong i will be the first to admit it
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:

Link
happens all the time in the summer here in sarasota,except approcaching from the east,4 out of 5 times thats exactly what happens ,i even have a name for.it,I call it the"sarasota split"...
This is the 4.5 day forecast from the GFS. One can see the polar jet in gray to the north and the sub tropical jet to the south in gray.

The jet should provide some ample rains come Thursday night into Friday. Once the jet rises north of the peninsula our rainy season will start up.
Quoting Chicklit:
Hey aquak, don't get me started.
I have this album (Blood on the Tracks); one of my faves:
BucketsofRain


That song and that album have been favorites of mine since, well you know when the album came out :)

WTO
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
For what it's worth (a lot if you've got the money) grain futures are through the roof and almost a sure bet to go higher. The drought in the European grain belt (Ukraine and Russia) and the severe weather in the US preventing the harvest of the winter wheat crop are already affecting world food prices. No conspiracy there just supply and demand.


Nothing is "almost a sure bet to go higher." Not on a weather blog, where discussion of the notion is not appropriate.

Thanks, WTO
144hr GFS, right on Cue.

Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Sub Tropical Jet Starting it's ascent.

It's nice news.Hurricane season is closer and closer!
not wishing a hurricane for the W PAC or any thing but i hop they have s better season this year then lasy year in the means of more name storms
Quoting WatchingThisOne:


Nothing is "almost a sure bet to go higher." Not on a weather blog, where discussion of the notion is not appropriate.

Thanks, WTO


It was supposed to be a humorous response to the speculation that the flooding of the farmland would provide an "excuse" for higher grain prices not investment advice. Oh well if you have to explain it, it wasn't a good joke. k-tung (rimshot)guess i better stick to my day job.
That's a pretty significant trough portrayed on the GFS @ 144hrs. If true, I would expect another round of severe weather.
Situation Update No. 2
On 05.05.2011 at 03:13 GMT+2

Members of a First Nation community near one of the largest oil spills in Alberta's history say fumes from the leaking crude are making them sick. A pipeline break northeast of Peace River, Alta., has leaked 28,000 barrels (nearly 4.5 million litres) of crude oil since Friday. Lubicon Cree residents of Little Buffalo, Alta., 30 kilometres from the spill site, say they've been experiencing nausea, burning eyes and headaches since the leak began. The community closed its school and ordered children to stay at home. "It has been four days since classes were suspended due to the noxious odours in the air," said Brian Alexander, principal of Little Buffalo School. "The children and staff at the school were disorientated, getting headaches and feeling sick to their stomachs. "We tried to send the children outside to get fresh air as it seemed worse in the school, but when we sent them out they were getting sick as well." The oil is now contained and about 100 workers are working to recover oil from sand and a nearby pond, said the Alberta Energy Resources Conservation Board. Neither the ERCB nor the owner of the pipeline, Plains Midstream Canada, has spoken directly with the band, said Chief Steve Nosky. "The ERCB is not being accountable to our community; they did not even show up to our community meeting to inform us of the unsettling situation we are dealing with," he said. more
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
That's a pretty significant trough portrayed on the GFS @ 144hrs. If true, I would expect another round of severe weather.


ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 040759
SPC AC 040759

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 AM CDT WED MAY 04 2011

VALID 071200Z - 121200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODELS DEPICT A WNWLY FLOW REGIME FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC ON SAT/D4 WITH PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE MOVING
QUICKLY EWD SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY. BY
THIS TIME...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEGUN TO RETURN NWD FROM
THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY. ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE ONGOING SAT MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF IA/MO/IL/IND...SHIFTING EWD
AS A LOW LEVEL JET VEERS. SEVERITY OF THIS CONVECTION WILL DEPEND ON
THE STRENGTH OF ANY UPPER SUPPORT...BUT AS PREVIOUSLY ALLUDED
TO...PREDICTABILITY IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME.

BY SUN/D5...THERE IS STRONG EVIDENCE THAT A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE WRN STATES WITH AN 80+ KT MID LEVEL
JET DIGGING SWD ALONG THE W COAST. THE BOUQUET OF MREF SOLUTIONS AS
WELL AS DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW LITTLE AGREEMENT ON D5 WITH HOW
QUICKLY AND HOW FAR S THIS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT ON THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE CONVECTION OVER THE SRN/CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS NEAR THE DRYLINE WHERE CAPPING WILL BE A CONCERN...AND
ALSO WITH POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL CONVECTION FOCUSED OVER NEB/IA/MO/IL
OVERNIGHT WITH A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. BOTH THESE AREAS HAVE
POTENTIAL...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE ANY SEVERE AREAS WITH SUCH
UNCERTAINTY.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD MON/D6 TO WED/D8...THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A SEVERE THREAT EACH DAY ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN
PLAINS
...AND PERHAPS EXTENDING EWD FROM A SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH...AND/OR PIECES OF
THE TROUGH EMERGE OVER THE REGION.

SEVERE AREAS BEGINNING SUN/MAY 8TH AND LASTING THROUGH ABOUT MAY
10TH ARE LIKELY FORTHCOMING FOR MUCH OF THE CNTRL U.S. AS THE EVENT
NEARS AND PREDICTABILITY INCREASES.
Maps just updated, trough is deeper.
thanks for that KTM. Doing some research on the STJ and came across a possible problem in the near future.
Quoting Skyepony:
Situation Update No. 2
On 05.05.2011 at 03:13 GMT+2

Members of a First Nation community near one of the largest oil spills in Alberta's history say fumes from the leaking crude are making them sick. A pipeline break northeast of Peace River, Alta., has leaked 28,000 barrels (nearly 4.5 million litres) of crude oil since Friday. Lubicon Cree residents of Little Buffalo, Alta., 30 kilometres from the spill site, say they've been experiencing nausea, burning eyes and headaches since the leak began. The community closed its school and ordered children to stay at home. "It has been four days since classes were suspended due to the noxious odours in the air," said Brian Alexander, principal of Little Buffalo School. "The children and staff at the school were disorientated, getting headaches and feeling sick to their stomachs. "We tried to send the children outside to get fresh air as it seemed worse in the school, but when we sent them out they were getting sick as well." The oil is now contained and about 100 workers are working to recover oil from sand and a nearby pond, said the Alberta Energy Resources Conservation Board. Neither the ERCB nor the owner of the pipeline, Plains Midstream Canada, has spoken directly with the band, said Chief Steve Nosky. "The ERCB is not being accountable to our community; they did not even show up to our community meeting to inform us of the unsettling situation we are dealing with," he said. more



We are really driving a nail into our world, so sad.

Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Doing some research on the STJ
What sort of research?
Quoting KoritheMan:

What sort of research?


Current & forecast position. However, it will be interesting to see what effect the STJ has on this portrayed trough as they will be interacting with each other. Updated maps portray a very sharp & deep trough.
First thought is that it could cause negative tilting down the line.
Interesting slide show on the effects of the tsunami on Japanese coastal areas. There is a slide on the bottom that controls portions seen of the before and of the after views.
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astrological Service and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
====================================

At 10:00 AM PhST, the Low Pressure Area was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 280 km East of Surigao City 9.5°N, 128.2°E.

This disturbance is expected to bring scattered rain showers and thunderstorms in the Bicol Region, Visayas and Mindanao becoming widespread rains over the Bicol Region, Visayas and Northeastern Mindanao which may trigger flash floods and landslides.

Residents living in low lying areas, along river banks and near mountain slopes are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures.
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:


It was supposed to be a humorous response to the speculation that the flooding of the farmland would provide an "excuse" for higher grain prices not investment advice. Oh well if you have to explain it, it wasn't a good joke. k-tung (rimshot)guess i better stick to my day job.


my bad, sorry :)

WTO
By TOMOKO A. HOSAKA,The Associated Press,

Japan disaster's other hidden danger: Asbestos

SENDAI, Japan — Inside the chunks of slate and wallboard smashed and scattered by Japan's tsunami hides a health risk that has been overshadowed by contamination from a leaking nuclear plant: the odorless and nearly invisible threat of asbestos.

Read more in this Link
Quoting eddy12:
...the point i was trying to make is his post 292 claims that he made this prediction of major flooding down south from the snow pack is a falsehood at best and an outright lie at worst...if i am wrong i will be the first to admit it

From Dr. Masters above: "Snow melt from this winter's record snow pack across the Upper Mississippi River has formed a pulse of flood waters that is moving downstream on the Mississippi."

Still want to go with your "outright lie" comment? ;-)

Good morning, morning people. Another day of disastrous flooding...but at least the south will start to warm after the cold spell brought on by last week's tornado-producing blob o'cold.
354. IKE
50.4 degrees outside my window.

................................................. ..........................................

From CNN....

Your monthly gas bill: $368
The average U.S. household spent nearly 9% of its total income on gas in April.
356. IKE
By Monique Fields Monique Fields – Wed May  ;4, 4:40 pm ET

TUSCALOOSA, Ala (Reuters) – The list of missing people in storm-ravaged
Tuscaloosa, Alabama, has been reduced to 75 and the number of dead from the
storms remains steady at 40, Mayor Walt Maddox said on Wednesday.
One week after the April 27 storms that killed more than 230 people across
Alabama, Maddox said he is crafting a plan for rebuilding.
"I'm hopeful and prayerful as time goes by the story about Tuscaloosa is not
going to be the tornado," the mayor told reporters. "The story of Tuscaloosa
will be how we rebuilt the city."
Maddox said about 900 Alabama Power customers still do not have power within
the city, home to the University of Alabama, which canceled final exams and
postponed graduation ceremonies until August.
But public schools have reopened and traffic has been restored on major
streets and avenues.
In Tuscaloosa County, more than 126 miles of roads have been cleared of
debris and all county roads are open, Probate Judge W. Hardy McCollum said.
The city and county continue to receive help from law enforcement and fire
departments from across the state and Louisiana.
Eleven search and recovery teams from Louisiana canvassed the city on
Wednesday, using cadaver dogs to look for any remaining storm victims.
"They're going back through all the debris," said Heather McCollum, a city
spokeswoman. "We haven't quit searching since it happened."
Law enforcement officials also continue to clear names from the "persons of
concern" list.
Initially, more than 800 people were reported missing in the city, Heather
McCollum said. But the list included duplications and names of people who left
town after the storms.
Officials have been visiting shelters and making phone calls to account for
those on the list. Most people are found alive, but "we do realize that we will
likely find more fatalities," Heather McCollum said.
(Additional reporting by Colleen Jenkins; Editing by Jerry Norton)

357. IKE
Looking at the latest GFS and ECMWF runs....looks like the dry weather continues for the gulf coast for at least the next 7-10 days...maybe longer.
Quoting IKE:
>From CNN....

Your monthly gas bill: $368
The average U.S. household spent nearly 9% of its total income on gas in April.

At first glance, such numbers are disturbing. But then you read that the major oil companies made $30 billion in profit the first three months of this year--nearly a quarter of a million dollars a minute--and you start to feel better again. And knowing that those same incredibly profitable companies get billions more in annual tax subsidies makes it even sweeter... :-\

GasPriceWatch.com says Chicago has the nation's highest-price gas this morning at $4.69 a gallon. Nice...
359. IKE
I noticed the price of a barrel down $2.30 today or at $106.94 a barrel.

................................................. .................................................. ..

5 day QPF.....


Expect a wet day today across S FL and then C FL tomorrow with a chance for strong to maybe even severe storms with such cold air aloft. We will take the rain though as tomorrow is looking wet for C FL. Infact this could be the biggest rain we've had since 4/4/2011.
Quoting RastaSteve:
Expect a wet day today across S FL and then C FL tomorrow with a chance for strong to maybe even severe storms with such cold air aloft. We will take the rain though as tomorrow is looking wet for C FL. Infact this could be the biggest rain we've had since 4/4/2011.

BTW, Rasta, great call on this!

I noticed you caught a little flack the other day when none of the local Mets were calling for this but you did...nice work man! =)
362. IKE
Tampa and Orlando show a 30% chance of rain tomorrow. Miami shows a 40% chance for Friday.

................................................. .................................................

From Mobile,AL. discussion......yawn......

LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...A DRY WARM WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SUNDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE
STRENGTHENS NEXT WEEK...HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INLAND AREAS...REACHING 88
TO 92 DEGREES. THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS WILL SEE HIGHS JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...REACHING 83 TO 87 DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE 60S SUNDAY NIGHT WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S BY MID WEEK. /22
greetings, friends and fiends. (lifts steaming coffee cup, 365º)

Good read back here.

Ike- I think it's gonna be Tuscaloosa's story, it's gonna be all of Alabama's story. It's "A country boy can survive". My hope is that Alabama will become a new shining star of the south, rebuilding with good-hearted people.

Alabama's future (my vision)? So many people from all over the country are going to see what kinda people these "country boys" are, and decide to move businesses and industries in. Hard-working, honest people, never giving up on what they believe in.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
335 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2011


FRI...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY WILL PUSH EAST
SOUTHEAST AND REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE FRI. THE MODELS
SHOW TAIL END OF TROUGH CREATING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA WITH A DECENT JET STREAK PASSING OVERHEAD. MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS A WEAK TROUGH PUSHES TO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND LOW LEVEL FLOW ATTAINS A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT.

500 MB TEMPS AT MINUS 11 TO 12 CELSIUS AND SURFACE HEATING IN THE
MID 80S SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR STORMS. WITH THE JET
STREAK ALOFT AND INITIALLY SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR...THINK THAT A
FEW STRONG STORMS WILL OCCUR.


THE LATEST GFS MOS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING LIKELY POPS BUT WILL NOT
GO THAT HIGH YET
AND INSTEAD HAVE BUMPED POPS TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS
THE AREA. THE MODELS HAVE ACTUALLY SPED UP THE MOVEMENT OF
CONVECTION...SO HAVE MENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE MORNING SHOWERS AND
ALSO BUMPED UP THE TIMING OF CHANCE STORMS TO 16Z.

Quoting IKE:
Tampa and Orlando show a 30% chance of rain tomorrow. Miami shows a 40% chance for Friday.

................................................. .................................................

From Mobile,AL. discussion......yawn......

LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...A DRY WARM WEATHER WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS UPPER RIDGING
GRADUALLY REBUILDS ACROSS THE REGION...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SUNDAYS HIGHS
WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN SATURDAY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE
STRENGTHENS NEXT WEEK...HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INLAND AREAS...REACHING 88
TO 92 DEGREES. THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS WILL SEE HIGHS JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...REACHING 83 TO 87 DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE 60S SUNDAY NIGHT WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S BY MID WEEK. /22


Will likely go up to mos guidance (showing likely pops) by the afternoon update which I believe comes out about 4pm.
Quoting KeysieLife:

BTW, Rasta, great call on this!

I noticed you caught a little flack the other day when none of the local Mets were calling for this but you did...nice work man! =)


I hope the models are right. I saw this appear on the models on Tuesday but the local NWS offices were affraid to pull the trigger due to how dry it's been of late.
Lot's of moisture being shown on the WV images getting intrained across the area out ahead of this short wave digging in to our north tomorrow. Should get interesting!
neap I will stand behind what i said without the foot plus of rain there would be no major flooding down south btw found those river headwaters in canada yet causing this record flooding.
369. IKE

Quoting aquak9:
greetings, friends and fiends. (lifts steaming coffee cup, 365º)

Good read back here.

Ike- I think it's gonna be Tuscaloosa's story, it's gonna be all of Alabama's story. It's "A country boy can survive". My hope is that Alabama will become a new shining star of the south, rebuilding with good-hearted people.

Alabama's future (my vision)? So many people from all over the country are going to see what kinda people these "country boys" are, and decide to move businesses and industries in. Hard-working, honest people, never giving up on what they believe in.
Give the story another 10 days. It won't be mentioned much anymore. It isn't much now since Mr. Evil got what was coming to him. At least not on network news.

Memo to network news: Bin Laden is dead. Move on. They can drive any story into the ground.
snippets from msnbc.com:

Arkansas closed a 15-mile stretch of westbound lanes of one of the busiest road arteries in the nation, Interstate 40, due to flooding, according to the state's transportation department. More than 31,000 vehicles travel daily through the section of road closed, said Glenn Bolick, a spokesman for the Arkansas Transportation Department.

In Hickman, Ky., Morrison Williamson said he was confident the floodwall about 10 feet from the hardware store he manages will save it, even though two rivulets of the swollen Mississippi River sprout from reinforcing timbers on the structure like water from a garden hose.

Williamson was in a nearly deserted downtown and while his secretary is too worried to work in the store, he's kept it open for customers who need flood-fighting supplies. He thinks the decision to break open a Missouri levee upstream has kept the river from topping the floodwall, and that has saved many communities 20 miles to the south in Tennessee.

"They say blowing up the levee saved Cairo (Ill.). Well, it did. But if this breaks, you're talking Dyersburg, Ridgely, Tiptonville, water all the way to Memphis," Williamson said.
that's why I don't watch mainstream media, Ike. It tries to herd people's thoughts like cattle, and is often successful in guiding folks thought processes.
Weather in 4-D.

There is a space-time vortex around Earth.

NASA Announces Results of Epic Space-Time experiment.

Link
Quoting Neapolitan:

At first glance, such numbers are disturbing. But then you read that the major oil companies made $30 billion in profit the first three months of this year--nearly a quarter of a million dollars a minute--and you start to feel better again. And knowing that those same incredibly profitable companies get billions more in annual tax subsidies makes it even sweeter... :-\

GasPriceWatch.com says Chicago has the nation's highest-price gas this morning at $4.69 a gallon. Nice...


Majority of those profits were not in the US, sir.
Quoting IKE:
I noticed the price of a barrel down $2.30 today or at $106.94 a barrel.


WTI getting hammered - down 3.94 $/bbl (so 105.35 on the front month)
Looks as if the Blog has been sucked into a black hole. No energy escaping. 30+ minutes between posts.
Quoting CanesfanatUT:


Majority of those profits were not in the US, sir.


China
3 weeks to hurricane season! Almost time for the chart again.
Quoting RitaEvac:


LOL! Rita I think that over the next few weeks the rains should hopefully start kicking in for the Gulf Coast areas from TX to FL.
Quoting RastaSteve:


China


Unsure - they just list this (billions):

Earnings (U.S. GAAP)
Upstream
United States
1,279
Non-U.S.
7,396
Downstream
United States
694
Non-U.S.
405
Chemical
United States
669
Non-U.S.
847
Corporate and financing
(640)
Net income attributable to ExxonMobil
10,650
Quoting RastaSteve:


LOL! Rita I think that over the next few weeks the rains should hopefully start kicking in for the Gulf Coast areas from TX to FL.


Not for TX
I'd start watching the area to the north east of panama for tropical development over the next 144hrs...
384. IKE

Quoting DestinJeff:


oh, i see shades of Classic Ike in that comment! Welcome home, Ike.
LOL! I don't see a May Atlantic system anytime soon. Will it be a slow start to the season?

................................................. .............................................

The chart~


Lord'a'Mercy, Ike's posting TheChart. Definitely a return to Classic Ike.

No named storms till mid-July.
Complete Update





388. IKE

Quoting aquak9:
Lord'a'Mercy, Ike's posting TheChart. Definitely a return to Classic Ike.

No named storms till mid-July.
lol.....could be August!


'Scuse Me While I Whip This Out!

Quoting IKE:

LOL! I don't see a May Atlantic system anytime soon. Will it be a slow start to the season?

................................................. .............................................

The chart~


Quoting CanesfanatUT:


Majority of those profits were not in the US, sir.

True. But it's also true that the companies that made the profits in question are: Chevron, ExxonMobil, Occidental, Koch, Marathon, ConocoPhillips, Anadarko, Hess, and so on.

I've never said, nor ever would, that the billions in tax subsidies given to these--the most profitable corporations in the most profitable industry the world has ever known--have more than an infinitesimal effect on prices at the pump. What I have said is that a country facing tough economic times shouldn't have difficulty deciding whether to a) subsidize those hugely profitable corporations or b) make sure senior citizens can afford at least minimal health care. The fact that it's even debated shows just how tightly is the grip Big Oil has on many (most?) politicians.
oh, if we went till august with no named storms? this place'd be like one flew over the cuckoo's nest.
The Chart! Bahahhahha
393. Jax82
When do the main hurricane forecasts come out? Is it June 1 or sometime in May?
Quoting aquak9:
oh, if we went till august with no named storms? this place'd be like one flew over the cuckoo's nest.


I wonder if the ridge pumping comments will come back.
Quoting aquak9:
oh, if we went till august with no named storms? this place'd be like one flew over the cuckoo's nest.


Imagine how great it would be if the first storm wasn't named 'till say August 16th. You know...
... like "92".
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:


Imagine how great it would be if the first storm wasn't named 'till say August 16th. You know...
... like "92".


uhm...NO. I would NOT like a repeat of 1992.
"Certainty's a big word." The following things WILL happen during this year's blogging season:

1. StormW will return.
2. Taz will hunt down any and every JFV alias.
3. Destin Jeff will be banned at least 3 times.
4. The ridge will definitely be pumped!

Have a great day!
The TUTT is forecast by the GFS to clear out of the Caribbean by 48hrs. Things should start to change quite drastically over the next 5 days. Below is the 120hr 200mb winds from the GFS. The US is in the upper left of the top image. Notice the sub tropical jet starting to lift North.

399. IKE

Quoting RastaSteve:


I wonder if the ridge pumping comment swill come back.
"Pump the ridge"

"pattern change"

"the GOM is prime in 2011"

"have you seen those SST's?"

"where's JFV?"

"who is this stormW, you're talking about?"

"it's almost always quiet in June"

"IKE is a downcaster"

"It's heading straight for Florida!"(even though it's 3,500 miles away)


Quoting IKE:

"Pump the ridge"

"pattern change"

"the GOM is prime in 2011"

"have you seen those SST's?"

"where's JFV?"

"who is this stormW, you're talking about?"

"it's almost always quiet in June"

"IKE is a downcaster"

"It's heading straight for Florida!"(even though it's 3,500 miles away)




And when there is lull in tropical systems Florida will be doing this...

Quoting IKE:

"Pump the ridge"

"pattern change"

"the GOM is prime in 2011"

"have you seen those SST's?"

"where's JFV?"

"who is this stormW, you're talking about?"

"it's almost always quiet in June"

"IKE is a downcaster"

"It's heading straight for Florida!"(even though it's 3,500 miles away)



I have my own, er, slightly longer list. I was gonna hold off, but, well, here you go:

Fish storm! We are all DOOM! Poof! Flagged and re ported! Welcome to my ignore list! CMC! NAM! BAMM! GFDL! HWFI! LBAR! LGEM! SHIPS! TVCN! UKMET! XTRP! XTRP isn't a model! TUTT! Shear! Pinhole eye! Pinehole eye! Annular! Fujiwhara! Rapid intensification! I have a bad feeling about this! Don't like the looks of that! Things may get interesting soon! Things are going to get really scary next week! Season's just getting started! They need to move the start of season up to mid-May! There'll be no storms until mid-July! Ruh-roh! The 06z ECMWF shows a 995mb low right over my house at 384 hours! Season's over! This season's boring! Troll! Bustcaster! Westcaster! Backcaster! Nowcaster! Hypecaster! Doomcaster! The NHC is wrong! The NHC is lying! The NHC has really gone downhill lately! They're not classifying it because they don't want to scare us! They classified it because they want to inflate the numbers! Recon should make one more pass! They don't know what the hell they're doing! Is that a wobble, or a jog? HAARP! Spurious low! Is it an invest yet? If the remnant low of a named storm comes back to life, does it get a new name?! ME GUSTA GRITAR EN ESPANOL EN LETRAS MAYUSCULAS! It's headed to the GOM! It's moving due west! It's going to Florida! It's not going to Florida! Westward! Poleward! The ocean's hot enough to boil shrimp! The Gulf's like a bottle with the cork in too tight! The Caribbean's like a ticking time bomb! The entire Atlantic is like a pressure-cooker with a clogged valve! The NHC needs a new box of crayons! The NHC finally found its box of crayons! Recurve! Wait; shouldn't it just be "curve" and not "recurve"?! Curtains up! Thanks, Dr. Masters! Face palm! Head explodes! The low is pumping the ridge! Coffee on the sideboard! SQUAWK! Shower curtain! JFV! Long-time lurker! I couldn't resist! 90% at the next TWO! Hebert Box! Hope Rule! Hot tub! High Octane! Jet fuel! Rocket fuel! Hot tub full of high-octane jet-like rocket fuel! Lol! LOL! ROFL! ROFLMAO! ROFLMFAO!!!!! SAL! MJO! PDO! NAO! ENSO! EWRC! SST! TCHP! OHC! TWC! TWC sucks! Cantore's in town; look out! Oh, you mean this chart?! Scuse me while I whip this out! AOI! MDR! COC! BOC! GOM! SLOSH! There's too much going on to talk about GW! There's nothing going on; do we have to talk about GW?! Hot tower! RIP! Thanks for the update! The ants are going crazy here! We're going on a Caribbean cruise in a month-and-a-half; how are things looking for us? The models are shifting left! The models are shifting right! The models are dead on! The models were dead wrong! I don't feel like reading back, so I need a summary of the tropics! I'm in the cone! It looks like it's coming right into my livingroom! Lame; I get more wind and rain from a normal summer thunderstorm! I can't wait until the next TWO! I told you so! F5F5F5F5F5! The season's a bust! Don't quote the trolls! Ignored! Where is everybody?! The blog is s-l-o-w. The blog is boring! Z-z-z-z-z-z...
Quoting DestinJeff:


hey that's my line.


Sorry DJ. Better grab your guns again, it's your best defense.

Quoting muddertracker:
"Certainty's a big word." The following things WILL happen during this year's blogging season:

1. StormW will return.
2. Taz will hunt down any and every JFV alias.
3. Destin Jeff will be banned at least 3 times.
4. The ridge will definitely be pumped!

Have a great day!
"Herbert Box" will require explanation with a pronunciation guide daily.
Quoting DestinJeff:


hey that's my line.
Quoting DestinJeff:


hey that's my line.

DJ :) Glad you're back! I have a feeling your humor will be much needed this blogging season.
406. IKE
LOL!!!!!!

401 covers it all. If you've blogged on here for awhile you do get a constant feeding of the same responses.

"It's not being designated. Recon should make one more pass! They don't know what the hell they're doing!"

"i don't trust the NHC. They've really gone downhill the last couple of years"
401. Perfecto! LOL! "Curtians UP!"
Quoting DestinJeff:


or my drums. where did I put those things?

I'm not changing the avatar until 1st named storm. Maybe.
Quoting DestinJeff:


or my drums. where did I put those things?

I'm not changing the avatar until 1st named storm. Maybe.


I dunno..the eye is unusally large and exposed...
Freedom 7 launched 9:34 am EST on 5/5/1961. Splashed and recovered safely 50 years ago.
413. IKE
Quoting DestinJeff:
Nea ... thanks for the recap.

Looks like everyone is starting to show up. Of course, party can't REALLY get started until Reed shows up with his exclusive "Continent of Uncertainty"
lol....everyone knows that trouble is looming on here...my gosh, I forgot about Reed.

"when is the next ECMWF run?"

"GFS hasn't been worth a crap so far this season"
Quoting DestinJeff:
Nea ... thanks for the recap.

Looks like everyone is starting to show up. Of course, party can't REALLY get started until Reed shows up with his exclusive "Continent of Uncertainty"

Careful, I heard he's "pumping" a trademark on it this season!
Quoting DestinJeff:
Nea ... thanks for the recap.

Looks like everyone is starting to show up. Of course, party can't REALLY get started until Reed shows up with his exclusive "Continent of Uncertainty"
I don't see anyone here on the blog named "everyone", so who are you talking about? (and for the record, some of us have been spammin... I mean lurking all winter)
401. @ Nea Either you are one fast typer or you have way too much time on your hands!lol
I dig Reed when he is in the "zone." He's not afraid to go against the consensus...he blogs his mind...he usually backs up his claims with (his interpretation of) weather data..
Quoting muddertracker:
I dig Reed when he is in the "zone." He's not afraid to go against the consensus...he blogs his mind...he usually backs up his claims with (his interpretation of) weather data..

LOL and don't forget his uncanny skills with MS Paint!
369 IKE "Memo to network news: Bin Laden is dead. Move on. They can drive any story into the ground."

blog1793page19comment948 aspectre 8:11amGMT 2May2011
"And our top story tonight : Generalissimo Francisco Franco is still dead."
422. IKE

Quoting aspectre:
369 IKE "Memo to network news: Bin Laden is dead. Move on. They can drive any story into the ground."

blog1793page19comment948 aspectre 8:11amGMT 2May2011 "And our top story tonight : Generalissimo Francisco Franco is still dead."
True!
Quoting DestinJeff:


don't worry I would never had said "almost everyone" if I hadn't already seen you on.

Somebody should call Best Buy and let Reed know the blog needs him now.


I thought he said he pushes carts at Target? I remember him saying he's a lot attendant. I also hear he has a CD.
Quoting DestinJeff:
here you go.... just becasue:




LOL! Herbert's shower curtain box of DOOM!
ya'll forgot two things- the sexy avatars, and Recoon.
Quoting KeysieLife:

LOL and don't forget his uncanny skills with MS Paint!
Quoting KeysieLife:

LOL and don't forget his uncanny skills with MS Paint!
I forgot all about that..heheh
428. IKE

Quoting aquak9:
ya'll forgot one thing- the sexy avatars.
That all fall in love with stormW.
430. IKE

Quoting DestinJeff:


stop, aqua, you're making me blush.
lol
Quoting aquak9:
ya'll forgot one thing- the sexy avatars.


LOL! It was like looking at Huslter magazine on here with some of these avatars.
433. IKE
  • Oil -3.60
  • Price/barrel $105.64
Woohoo!
Anybody heard the StormW slogan for 2011 "NAIL IT!" LOL!
Quoting IKE:

  • Oil -3.60

  • Price/barrel $105.64
Woohoo!



Nice! Keep on falling!
Quoting fireflymom:

"Herbert Box" will require explanation with a pronunciation guide daily.

Herbert boxes-two boxes,one near Bahamas,second near Cuba(I can be wrong).
Meteorologist Herbert discovered in the 70s that hurricanes coming through these boxes often hit Florida.One box works in early-mid season,second in late-mid to late season.
My Wishlist.......

IKE and I hit the Florida Lotto....the next two weeks. Hey IKE, Jeff, Aquak, and Steve! You READY???
Quoting TampaSpin:
My Wishlist.......

IKE and I hit the Florida Lotto....the next two weeks. Hey IKE, Jeff, Aquak, and Steve! You READY???


Wuz up bud! I was at St. Pete beach last weekend and had a blast. The beaches there are stunning!
Already clarification required so as not to mislead-lol
Quoting PolishHurrMaster:

Herbert boxes-two boxes,one near Bahamas,second near Cuba(I can be wrong).
Meteorologist Herbert discovered in the 70s that hurricanes coming through these boxes often hit Florida.One box works in early-mid season,second in late-mid to late season.

That was good Nea,I think about all I could add to that exhaustive list would be, now don't take this personal.But I really respect your opinion on the tropics so what's your take on this fill in the blank.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
The TUTT is forecast by the GFS to clear out of the Caribbean by 48hrs. Things should start to change quite drastically over the next 5 days. Below is the 120hr 200mb winds from the GFS. The US is in the upper left of the top image. Notice the sub tropical jet starting to lift North.

Not good.That should increase our chance of having a May or June storm.Also their is one word you all forgot to add to the list.....unprecedented..
Recoon!

Quoting RastaSteve:


Wuz up bud! I was at St. Pete beach last weekend and had a blast. The beaches there are stunning!



St. Pete Beach was ranked a few years ago as one of the top 10 beaches in the world........guess you seen why! The Seafood there is awesome also. Sometimes i take a Motorbike ride there just to eat.
Is it just me, or do the SSTs in the Pacific look like neutral/El Nino, and not La Nina?
Oh I forgot one more only,I promise Ike is such a down caster.
Sorry Ike see you already had that one covered. Day late and a dollar short.
Aqua -- love the Recoons!
re: 401 (Nea) and 440 (gordy)- It's not a season until the first "Is that an eye...?"
Quoting RitaEvac:


And when there is lull in tropical systems Florida will be doing this...

This is a great post.