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Arizona's fire danger to increase Saturday; Adrian hits Category 4

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:06 PM GMT on June 10, 2011

The powerful winds that have fanned Arizona's massive Wallow fire into the state's second largest fire on record will remain relatively modest on Friday, and the forecast for Eastern Arizona calls for afternoon winds of just 10 - 15 mph. On Thursday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had sustained winds that peaked at just 12 mph, with gusts to 22. These are the lightest afternoon winds the fire region has seen all week, though firefighting efforts were hindered by very low relative humidities that reached 5% on Thursday. Firefighters were able to make progress Thursday, and the Wallow fire is now 5% contained. Unfortunately, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center forecasts that critical fire conditions will return on Saturday and Sunday, with strong southwest winds of 15 - 20 mph, gusting to 35 mph. The return of critical fire conditions this weekend means that the Wallow fire will likely become Arizona's largest wildfire in history, a distinction currently held by the 2002 Rodeo-Chediski fire (732 square miles.) The Wallow fire has grown steadily from 300 square miles on Sunday to 603 square miles on Thursday--about 50% of the size of Rhode Island.


Figure 1. Smoke from Arizona fires, including the Wallow Fire, continued traveling toward the northeast on June 8, 2011. As the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra satellite acquired this natural-color image at 12:10 Central Daylight Time, thick smoke stretched from New Mexico and Texas northeastward to Illinois. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

94L bringing heavy rains to the Bahamas
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (94L) that brought heavy rains to Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti early this week reorganized slightly overnight, and is now bringing heavy rains to the Bahama Islands. The storm killed at least 23 people in Haiti earlier this week, due to torrential flooding rains. Satellite-estimated rainfall amounts indicate 8 -10 inches of rain fell over Haiti's southwestern peninsula this week. None of the reliable computer models is showing development of 94L into a tropical depression, and NHC is giving the disturbance a 10% chance of developing by Sunday. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots in the region between Cuba and South Carolina, making development unlikely. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, none of the reliable computer models is predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Adrian taken at 10:15am EDT June 10, 2011.

Annular Adrian becomes the first major hurricane of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season
Hurricane Adrian put on an impressive bout of rapid intensification Thursday, intensifying into the season's first major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific. Adrian is the globe's 6th Category 4 or stronger tropical cyclone of the year. Adrian is expected to remain far enough offshore the coast of Mexico to not pose a threat to that country. Gradual weakening is likely through the weekend, since Adrian will be tracking over cooler ocean waters. Adrian's decay will be slower than usual for a hurricane, since it has become what is called an annular hurricane. Annular hurricanes feature a large eye surrounded by a very thick eyewall, with no spiral rain bands. The very thick eyewall makes annular hurricanes resistant to weakening due to wind shear, dry air, or cool waters. Annular hurricanes are rare; only 3% of all Eastern Pacific tropical cyclones become annular, and 1% of all Atlantic ones.

A record 100-year flood on the Missouri River
The greatest flood in recorded history is occurring along sections of the Missouri River, which runs from Montana to St. Louis, Missouri. On Thursday, the river hit 28.0' feet at Williston, North Dakota, surpassing the record flood height set in 1912. The river is expected to continue to rise to 1.4' above the 1912 mark by Tuesday. This week, the Missouri River at Omaha, Nebraska surpassed the level set during the great 1993 flood, and the river's height is currently the 2nd greatest on record, 9' below the mark set in 1952. Water releases at the six flood control dams on the Missouri River are now at more than double their previous all-time highs; these dams were built between 1940 and 1964. This great 100-year flood on the Missouri River is just beginning, and is likely to cause major damage over the next few weeks.

Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters
Volunteers
Volunteers
Filling sandbags at the Hamburg, IA elementery school.
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now
Albuquerque Smoke-Free for Now
Arizona's Wallow fire blankets Albuquerque in smoke for days, but we got a real "breather" at last on 6/8/11
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke
Sun Setting on Heavy Smoke
814 PM. Sun slipped down lower than the heavy clouds, but very heavy smoke. Almost didn't see it. Smoke comes from an over 100,000 acre fire in SW Az.

Fire

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

EUMETSAT ASH CHANNEL SATELLITE

From the EUMETSAT site:
Ash is an RGB composite based upon infrared channel data from the Meteosat Second Generation satellite. It is designed to detect ash and sulphur dioxide (SO2) from volcanic eruptions which can be used for the provision of warnings to aviation authorities. The Ash RGB is composed from data from a combination of the SEVIRI IR8.7, IR10.8 and IR12.0 channels.

Link
Quoting AussieStorm:

I spoke to a friend of mine. He is from Eritrea, I asked him about the quakes and eruption he had no idea. Even the Eritrean news have nothing on it.
Good morning Aussie. This is off topic but just thought I would let you know. Australian marathon swimmer Penny Palfrey set a world record for swimming 68 miles between Little Cayman and Grand Cayman. It took her almost 41 hours to complete the swim.
Good morning to all. The ash plume continues to look strong.

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good morning Aussie. This is off topic but just thought I would let you know. Australian marathon swimmer Penny Palfrey set a world record for swimming 68 miles between Little Cayman and Grand Cayman. It took her almost 41 hours to complete the swim.

Cool, Didn't know that. Thanks.
Good Morning to all. Update from Texas: Medium range models show very little wavering in the high pressure cell aloft through the end of June, which could spell disaster for agriculture. And, as already dry soils get even drier, it becomes more difficult to break away from the 100s. We'll have to keep an eye on the tropics for some possible relief. Computer models do hint at development in the Caribbean and possibly the Gulf for the final week of the month.
2008. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A 1017 MB HIGH ACROSS THE NE GULF EXTENDING W-NW
INTO SE TEXAS WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD TONIGHT THROUGH WED THEN
COLLAPSE ACROSS THE E GULF THU AS HIGH PRES RIDGES FROM THE SW N
ATLC W-SW ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE ENTIRE GULF BASIN THROUGH FRI.



2009. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT MON JUN 13 2011

.SYNOPSIS...FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
SE AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEK THEN EXPAND BASIN WIDE
LATE FRI. A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WINDWARDS AND INTO THE E CARIBBEAN
TODAY AND TONIGHT...REACH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE AND MOVE
ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WED THROUGH FRI. A SECOND ENERGETIC
TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE TROPICAL N ATLC EARLY TUE THEN MOVE
W-NW ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN EARLY WED...REACH THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN THU AND MOVE TO ALONG 80W LATE FRI.
It rained last night!!! WOOOOOT!
2011. FLdewey
NATIONAL CENTER FOR DEWEY'S YARD
SYNOPSIS FOR DEWEY'S YARD
630 AM CDT MON JUN 13 2011

SYNOPSIS...DEWEY'S YARD WILL REMAIN CRISPY AND REQUIRE MANUAL IRRIGATION FOR MANY DAYS TO COME. DEWEY WILL RESPECT THE SJWMD AND ONLY WATER ON ALLOWED DAYS... AT LEAST DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.

It actually might rain on the east coast today... not holding ma breath.
Quoting largeeyes:
It rained last night!!! WOOOOOT!

Its been raining here since Friday afternoon, I wish it would b****y stop.
if their grass is green write them a ticket e cen florida
Anybody else play around with the EUMETSAT ash imagery? It's pretty clear that whatever triggered it, the eruption started between 20:00 and 21:00 UTC....



The first two images show mainly red and orange colours, but by the third image the leading edge of the plume was turning green.

According to the EUMETSAT guide, the red colours are ash and the green colours are SO2....



[Orange is cold thick high level clouds; black=cirrus/contrail type clouds.]
That means scientists can analyse the content of the plume from space.... does this suggest phreatic to anybody? There's a lot of orange in that plume.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Its been raining here since Friday afternoon, I wish it would b****y stop.
We want 2 know y u r stealing r rain.... we need it back!
2018. hydrus
GFS 384 hours..lol..
Quoting hydrus:
GFS 384 hours..lol..

A wish-casting model. lol

Quoting BahaHurican:
We want 2 know y u r stealing r rain.... we need it back!

east coast low.


UCambridge has a brief report....
Poor Aussie.... looks like it's hanging about...
2022. hydrus
Quoting AussieStorm:

A wish-casting model. lol


Remnants of La nina and an east coast low
A bit of spin and decent moisture associated with the wave approaching the Antilles...
2025. emcf30
Ash from Eritrean eruption to reach Eilat
By JPOST.COM STAFF
06/13/2011 14:26

Volcanic ash from an eruption in Eritrea will likely hit Eilat early Tuesday morning, Israel Radio reported Monday.

Authorities have said that the ash cloud will, by the time it reaches Israel's southern coastal town, have settled low enough to become a hazard for flight arrivals and departures.
2027. Jax82
Here is a MODIS image yesterday of Chile's Puyehue-Cordon Caulle volcano, if you think the AZ wildfire is smokin, imagine this cloud of smoke.

Barb, that image is pretty impressive.... looks like that plume will reach the Mediterranean within 24 hours...
Well, I gotta run, and no guarantee I'll be able to get on before 3 p.m. today.... :o(.... please keep the info coming. Guess I will catch up later...
2030. emcf30
UPDATE 13/06 – 12:1705 UTC : Intermediate overview of the current situation (by Pieter De Leeuw):
The estimated height of the ashcloud is ~13.5km, according to the VAAC. This is an essential piece of information in predicting the current size of the eruption, as the height of the ashcloud often reflects the force behind the eruption. In this case, it would so far be an average-to-large eruption. For comparison; the ashcloud from the Eyjafjallajokull only came up to 9km in April 2010, the more recent Grimsvotn eruption in Iceland got up to 20km, and the Mt. St Helens reached 25km.
There however is some uncertainty with this way of estimating the size of an eruption. The height of the ashcloud is influenced by many factors, such as prevailing wind, eruption style and eruption angle. In this case strong winds seem to prevail (the plume travelled over 250km in 2 hours after the onset of the eruption). The eruption style seems to be a ‘grey’ eruption (with much ash, little lava) instead of a red eruption (much lava, little ash). The eruption angle is however not possible to determine. Most eruptions occure horizontally, but exceptions do occur, as happened with Mt. St. Helens. A landside triggered a so called ‘lateral’ eruption. This is a possible scenario, as the earthquakes (up to M5.7) were strong enough to possibly have created landslide.
Also, when estimating an eruption size based on the magnitude of the preceding earthquakes, one should take into account that this volcano (Nabro volcano ER) possibly has been dormant for hundreds to thousands of years.
This could mean that the overlaying ground was not ductile for magma movements, and therefor a massive force was needed to force it’s way up to the surface.
These are all plain speculations based on the information we currently have, and by no means an official report.
2031. JRRP

earthquake-report.com has a poster who says geologists in the area are attempting to get to the site of the eruption from Djibouti and Jeddah; hopefully we will see some on-site imagery if they do get there.
2033. robj144
Quoting emcf30:
UPDATE 13/06 – 12:1705 UTC : Intermediate overview of the current situation (by Pieter De Leeuw):
The estimated height of the ashcloud is ~13.5km, according to the VAAC. This is an essential piece of information in predicting the current size of the eruption, as the height of the ashcloud often reflects the force behind the eruption. In this case, it would so far be an average-to-large eruption. For comparison; the ashcloud from the Eyjafjallajokull only came up to 9km in April 2010, the more recent Grimsvotn eruption in Iceland got up to 20km, and the Mt. St Helens reached 25km.
There however is some uncertainty with this way of estimating the size of an eruption. The height of the ashcloud is influenced by many factors, such as prevailing wind, eruption style and eruption angle. In this case strong winds seem to prevail (the plume travelled over 250km in 2 hours after the onset of the eruption). The eruption style seems to be a ‘grey’ eruption (with much ash, little lava) instead of a red eruption (much lava, little ash). The eruption angle is however not possible to determine. Most eruptions occure horizontally, but exceptions do occur, as happened with Mt. St. Helens. A landside triggered a so called ‘lateral’ eruption. This is a possible scenario, as the earthquakes (up to M5.7) were strong enough to possibly have created landslide.
Also, when estimating an eruption size based on the magnitude of the preceding earthquakes, one should take into account that this volcano (Nabro volcano ER) possibly has been dormant for hundreds to thousands of years.
This could mean that the overlaying ground was not ductile for magma movements, and therefor a massive force was needed to force it’s way up to the surface.
These are all plain speculations based on the information we currently have, and by no means an official report.


Didn't it erupt in 1861?
Quoting hydrus:
GFS 384 hours..lol..
That would be prayers answered if it happens. Have a great day!
good morning bloggers
Quoting robj144:


Didn't it erupt in 1861?
Dubbi did; largest documented African eruption to this point, apparently. However, Nabro, the larger volcano in this complex of volcanos, has not erupted in the historical record.
2038. emcf30
This video details reports surrounding the eruption.

That new little blob in the EPAC might be our next AOI. The wave approaching South America looks vigorous but like it's going to hit land.
Situation Update No. 16
On 13.06.2011 at 03:28 GMT+2

A new wildfire is burning in the Huachuca Mountains in southern Arizona. Marylee Peterson with the Coronado National Forest says it is called the Monument Fire. The fire was spotted at about 1:15 PM Sunday. Peterson says it started in the Coronado National Memorial So far, approximately 70 to 80 acres have burned. The fire is about ¼ mile from the Forest Service Boundary. Crews are fighting the fire both on the ground and from the air, with at least four aircraft and eight Hotshot crews. Coronado National Memorial Visitors Center has been closed because of the fire. Peterson says the fire could cross into Ash Canyon, so there are notices for residents to stand-by for possibility of evacuation. At this point, it is unknown how many residents may be impacted.
Pakistan~ Heavy rain and hailstorm destroyed standing crops spreading over thousands of acres of land in Bajaur Agency on Sunday night. According to Met office, a total of 18 millimetres of rain was received which also broke the backbone of the sweltering heat in the region. Trees, signboards on roadside and pasted on building walls have also fallen due to heavy storm which badly affected the gardens of apricots, watermelon, melon, vegetables and standing crops. Food stuff was also destroyed due to accumulation of rain water which inundated shops and houses. The routine life was also badly affected due to hailstorm in the agency. The boundary walls of dozens of houses collapsed while power supply was suspended in several parts due to uprooting of electricity polls. The local people demanded of the government to provide compensation for losses they received.
China~ More than 100 people in nearly 60 vehicles were trapped after a rain-triggered landslide Monday interrupted traffic on a highway in Tibet autonomous region. The debris of the landslide, which happened around 8 am, buried about 30 meters of the Sichuan-Tibet Highway in Tibet's Nyingchi county, said rescue squad leader Liu Wanlin. Twenty-five rescuers are attempting to clear the debris with an excavator and two loading machines, as well as free those trapped individuals and get them to safety, Liu said. He added that it's hard to estimate when traffic will resume, as the cleanup efforts have been hampered by the risk of further geological calamities.
It appears that my proclamation of last week that the rainy season had officially started may have been a bit premature.

Kinda like the championship celebration the Miami Heat held prior to the season.

Japan~ Heavy rain triggered by an active rain front and low pressure system continued to fall in the Kyushu region in southwestern Japan on Sunday, leaving a man missing in Kagoshima Prefecture and leading a local government in Kumamoto Prefecture to briefly recommend residents to evacuate. The Japan Meteorological Agency continued to warn of mudslides and flooding, as heavy rain is expected to fall intermittently on parts of the archipelago's western half through early Monday. In the city of Satsumasendai in Kagoshima Prefecture, Mutsuo Arimura, a 78-year-old farmer, went missing after he went to his rice fields near his home on Saturday, the police said Sunday. A series of landslides occurred in Nagasaki Prefecture, leaving a firefighter injured while he was helping local residents to sandbag their homes in the city of Unzen on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Kumamoto city government in Kumamoto Prefecture issued a recommendation for residents living near rivers and hills to evacuate, warning of mudslides and flooding.

After a wide range of areas experienced downpours Saturday, a low pressure system that developed into a rain front over the East China Sea passed over the Kyushu region in southwestern Japan and is expected to move toward the Izu island chain south of Tokyo around daybreak Monday, the agency said. JR Kyushu said, due to heavy rain, it has suspended services on the Kyushu Shinkansen bullet train line between Shintamana Station in Tamana and Kumamoto Station, both in Kumamoto Prefecture. Services are also suspended between Shinyachiyo Station in Yachiyo, Kumamoto Prefecture, and Izumi Station in Izumi, Kagoshima Prefecture. The Pacific side of southwestern to western Japan is likely to see heavy rainfall of between 50 to 70 millimeters per hour, and the weather agency said heightened vigilance is required, particularly in Kyushu where large amounts of rain also fell Saturday. Around 200 mm of rainfall is forecast to fall in southern Kyushu and 150 mm in Shikoku and the Kinki region in the 24 hours to 6 p.m. Monday.
GFS 06z..
Quoting BobinTampa:
It appears that my proclamation of last week that the rainy season had officially started may have been a bit premature.

Kinda like the championship celebration the Miami Heat held prior to the season.



Old man Dirk is the man. I have no respect for the Heat.

How's the Volcano situation looking? Just how big is this and it does it look to play a role in the upcoming hurricane season possibly?
The slide in China may have been caused by illegal mining.



Chile volcano: Qantas cancels Melbourne flights
12 June 2011 Last updated at 05:55 ET



Qantas has cancelled all its flights in and out of Melbourne, Australia, because of ash drifting over the Pacific Ocean from a volcano in Chile.

Qantas had already cancelled flights to and from Tasmania and parts of New Zealand. Other airlines have also grounded flights in the region, stranding thousands of travellers.

Australian airline Qantas said it was too dangerous to fly through the ash.

The Puyehue-Cordon-Caulle volcano has been erupting for more than a week.

Strong winds have carried the fine particles of ash from the volcano to southern New Zealand and Australia at between 6,000 and 10,600m (20,000 and 35,000ft).

Couple more volcanoes in the Northern Hemisphere
and it could get very tricky flying anywhere.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
GFS 06z..


Isn't that about 2 weeks out?
2050. srada
Quoting CybrTeddy:
GFS 06z..


the GFS loves the NC coast for some reason..it has been spinning storms off our coast in different type frames in the last runs..
Quoting iceagecoming:



Chile volcano: Qantas cancels Melbourne flights
12 June 2011 Last updated at 05:55 ET



Qantas has cancelled all its flights in and out of Melbourne, Australia, because of ash drifting over the Pacific Ocean from a volcano in Chile.

Qantas had already cancelled flights to and from Tasmania and parts of New Zealand. Other airlines have also grounded flights in the region, stranding thousands of travellers.

Australian airline Qantas said it was too dangerous to fly through the ash.

The Puyehue-Cordon-Caulle volcano has been erupting for more than a week.

Strong winds have carried the fine particles of ash from the volcano to southern New Zealand and Australia at between 6,000 and 10,600m (20,000 and 35,000ft).

Couple more volcanoes in the Northern Hemisphere
and it could get very tricky flying anywhere.

Sorry but that info is old.
Quoting aspectre:
514 PcolaDan quoting a news item "Chilean volcanic eruption turns waterway into a steaming torrent
The usually chilly river temperature of six degrees has been raised to an average of around 45 degrees by the eruption.
"

Temperatures are in Celsius. 6degreesCelsius = ~43degreesFahrenheit ... 45deg.C = 113deg.F
YOU are the devil!
Thanks for the update Levi. Nice job as usual.
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Isn't that about 2 weeks out?


7 days from now but in the long range.
UPDATE 13/06 – 12:1705 UTC : Intermediate overview of the current situation (by Pieter De Leeuw):
The estimated height of the ash cloud is ~13.5km, according to the VAAC. This is an essential piece of information in predicting the current size of the eruption, as the height of the ash cloud often reflects the force behind the eruption. In this case, it would so far be an average-to-large eruption. For comparison; the ashcloud from the Eyjafjallajokull only came up to 9km in April 2010, the more recent Grimsvotn eruption in Iceland forced ash up to 20km in the air, and the 1981 Mt. St Helens eruption’s ashcloud reached 25km into the atmosphere.
There however is some uncertainty with this way of estimating the size of an eruption. The height of the ash-cloud is influenced by many factors, such as prevailing wind, eruption style and eruption angle. In this case strong winds seem to prevail (the plume traveled over 250km in 2 hours after the onset of the eruption). The eruption style seems to be a ‘gray’ eruption (with much ash, little lava) instead of a red eruption (much lava, little ash). The eruption angle is however not possible to determine. Most eruptions occur horizontally, but exceptions do occur, as happened with Mt. St. Helens. A landslide triggered a so called ‘lateral’ eruption. This is a possible scenario, as the earthquakes (up to M5.7) were strong enough to possibly have created landslide.
Also, when estimating an eruption size based on the magnitude of the preceding earthquakes, one should take into account that this volcano (Nabro volcano ER) possibly has been dormant for hundreds to thousands of years.
This could mean that the overlaying ground was not ductile for magma movements, and therefor a massive force was needed to force it’s way up to the surface.
These are all plain speculations based on the information we currently have, and by no means an official report.

I have a 'stupid' question. Why are you guys talking about that volcano eruption? What's so special about it and why hasn't it made headlines?

As I said...stupid question.
2058. RJT185
Thanks Levi.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


7 days from now but in the long range.


7 days isn't that far out of reach.
START A NEW BLOG ALREADY!!!! 2000+ posts...REALLY?
I realize there is still some back and forth as to which volcano this is, but after overlaying Google Earth with a high-resolution (250m) MODIS image of the eruption, I am 100% convinced it is not Dubbi.
Quoting Neapolitan:
I realize there is still some back and forth as to which volcano this is, but after overlaying Google Earth with a high-resolution (250m) MODIS image of the eruption, I am 100% convinced it is not Dubbi.


Whens the last time Nabro when off?
Quoting starbuck02:
I have a 'stupid' question. Why are you guys talking about that volcano eruption? What's so special about it and why hasn't it made headlines?

As I said...stupid question.

Because an eruption of this apparent magnitude has the potential to alter the climate and the weather, specifically that in the Atlantic MDR.
2064. Levi32
Quoting ILwthrfan:


Whens the last time Nabro when off?


Never in known history.
Quoting Waltanater:
START A NEW BLOG ALREADY!!!! 2000+ posts...REALLY?


I've seen blogs go up to 5,000 last season in one day. This aint nothing.
2066. Levi32
The CMC ensemble mean by Day 14 implies an area of tropical precipitation and low pressure in the SW Gulf of Mexico. It will be interesting to see if some of the ensembles start to look like the GFS as time goes on. The pattern would favor something like this, but of course model support would be nice. Still a long ways off.

2067. Levi32
CMC Ensemble mean 11-15 day total precipitation shows a lot of water in the Gulf of Mexico, and perhaps hope for the drought-stricken south.

2068. Bitmap7
Infrared shows the ash plume is on Egypt's border.
The Volcanism Blog just updated, and now says definitely Nabro (with props to those who called it).

http://volcanism.wordpress.com/

This one, too.
Complete Update

Stanley Cup....Boston... poof gone... after tonight :)

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI





Is there a second eruption going on? About halfway up the plume, to the north, seems like a second plume starts.
Syntezon has embedded tracking codes. Report and ignore.

These are the embedded codes
< style="max-width: 501px;" src="http://www2.clustrmaps.com/stats/maps-no_clusters/www.magicznerodzenstwo.ownlog.com-thumb.jpg" alt="" height="1" width="1">
< src="http://rg.revolvermaps.com/h/m/a/0/ff0000/128/0/6szbksffjeh.png" ;="" style="border: 0pt none; max-width: 501px;" width="1">

Quoting HurricaneDevo:
Is there a second eruption going on? About halfway up the plume, to the north, seems like a second plume starts.
I do beileve those are just clouds and not related to the Nabro Volcano. You can see it on the MODIS image...

Link

2065. CybrTeddy 2:00 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting Waltanater:
START A NEW BLOG ALREADY!!!! 2000+ posts...REALLY?

I've seen blogs go up to 5,000 last season in one day. This aint nothing.


Yeah I've seen it rack up too. Especially when we are all talking about interesting things like hurricanes. I just think this blog in particular is getting old, that's all.
2076. Patrap
Relax,,enjoy a Fresca or something.


Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters
Quoting ILwthrfan:
I do beileve those are just clouds and not related the Volcano. You can see it on the MODIS image...

Link



Do you have a later image, the item I am talking about started about 12:45 UTC?
2076. Patrap 2:14 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Relax,,enjoy a Fresca or something.


Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

YEAH, WHEN?
Quoting Patrap:
Relax,,enjoy a Fresca or something.


Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Indeed. Dr. Masters' posts are always greatly appreciated, but it's not as if we're lacking in things to discuss...
2080. Bitmap7
Quoting HurricaneDevo:


Do you have a later image, the item I am talking about started about 12:45 UTC?


Yeah I see it too, but I doubt it.
2081. Levi32
Quoting HurricaneDevo:
Is there a second eruption going on? About halfway up the plume, to the north, seems like a second plume starts.


That's a thunderstorm.
Quoting Waltanater:
2076. Patrap 2:14 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Relax,,enjoy a Fresca or something.


Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

YEAH, WHEN?
when he is good and ready
We are lacking in Hurricanes at the moment...if there were a CAT 5 heading for CONUS, we would definitely be talking about that, instead of some volcano blowing ash over the Middle East.
Quoting Waltanater:
We are lacking in Hurricanes at the moment...if there were a CAT 5 heading for CONUS, we would definitely be talking about that, instead of some volcano blowing ash over the Middle East.


good observation?
Quoting Waltanater:
We are lacking in Hurricanes at the moment...if there were a CAT 5 heading for CONUS, we would definitely be talking about that, instead of some volcano blowing ash over the Middle East.

We could talk about the ash cloud from Chile that's disrupting the airspace over southern Australia and New Zealand and more than likely falling on Antarctica and when the summer sun hits that ash it would probably cause more summertime melt.
Yes, its a GREAT observation. Too bad it has not been realized until now.
Quoting Waltanater:
Yes, its a GREAT observation. Too bad it has not been realized until now.


I don't understand your point. Is it bad they are talking about volcanoes or something?
2085. AussieStorm 2:26 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting Waltanater:
We are lacking in Hurricanes at the moment...if there were a CAT 5 heading for CONUS, we would definitely be talking about that, instead of some volcano blowing ash over the Middle East.
We could talk about the ash cloud from Chile that's disrupting the airspace over southern Australia and more than likely falling on Antarctica and when the summer sun hits that ash it would probably cause more summertime melt.


Maybe in a different BLOG, yes.
2089. Jax82
Todays image of the mid-east eruption. Top-middle.



Link to KMZ
Quoting Waltanater:
2085. AussieStorm 2:26 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Quoting Waltanater:
We are lacking in Hurricanes at the moment...if there were a CAT 5 heading for CONUS, we would definitely be talking about that, instead of some volcano blowing ash over the Middle East.
We could talk about the ash cloud from Chile that's disrupting the airspace over southern Australia and more than likely falling on Antarctica and when the summer sun hits that ash it would probably cause more summertime melt.


Maybe in a different BLOG, yes.

Do you want to learn how to quote people?
Quoting Waltanater:
We are lacking in Hurricanes at the moment...if there were a CAT 5 heading for CONUS, we would definitely be talking about that, instead of some volcano blowing ash over the Middle East.
iam grateful that it was not a super volcano and a global killing eruption has not occur not yet anyway
2092. Grothar
If this isn't an eruption, then it has to be a guy smoking the biggest cigar you have ever seen:


Quoting Waltanater:
2076. Patrap 2:14 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Relax,,enjoy a Fresca or something.


Have a great weekend everyone, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

YEAH, WHEN?


Having a little virus trouble this morning, my nephew was messing with my computer yesterday, ugh. Should have a new post by 11am.

Jeff Masters
2094. Bitmap7
So, it's confirmed to be Nabro.

Could've been asleep for 8, 9, maybe even 10,000 years if it's last eruption was in the Holocene as guessed. Could be even longer, who knows?

Asleep for that long. That is one volcano who desperately needs a strong espresso.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
iam grateful that it was not a super volcano and a global killing eruption has not occur not yet anyway


Not in recorded history, but many millions of years ago, the Siberian Traps eruption may have been implicated in the 'Great Dying' extinction event.
don't sweat it doc take your time
Quoting AussieStorm:

Do you want to learn how to quote people?


Yes, I KNOW how to QUOTE someone. Sometimes the frame doesn't allow me to enter text and refreshes back out of it, so I just copy and paste to get around it.
2098. Patrap
Thanx for the heads up.

Life is like that sometimes Dr. Masters.

With your expertise in Airborne aerosols,were sure the upcoming entry will touch on yesterdays events.
Quoting JeffMasters:


Having a little virus trouble this morning, my nephew was messing with my computer yesterday, ugh. Should have a new post by 11am.

Jeff Masters

I know what that's like, My son did the same thing, He now has his own account with restricted access. Take your time, Nothing much going on at the moment.
2100. Levi32
Quoting JeffMasters:


Having a little virus trouble this morning, my nephew was messing with my computer yesterday, ugh. Should have a new post by 11am.

Jeff Masters


Get linux ;)
2101. Patrap



Nabro Volcano Climbing, Hiking & Mountaineering


* Elevation: 7277 ft
* Difficulty:
* Best months to climb:
* Convenient center:
Quoting JeffMasters:


Having a little virus trouble this morning, my nephew was messing with my computer yesterday, ugh. Should have a new post by 11am.

Jeff Masters


Don't let anybody rush you, we are in no hurry. There is nothing of severe importance going on right now.
Quoting JeffMasters:


Having a little virus trouble this morning, my nephew was messing with my computer yesterday, ugh. Should have a new post by 11am.

Jeff Masters


Thanks Jeff no hurry
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
when he is good and ready


He's probably already working on it now.
2105. aquak9
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I've seen blogs go up to 5,000 last season in one day. This aint nothing.


and I try to read every last one of'm, too.
Quoting Patrap:



Nabro Volcano Climbing, Hiking & Mountaineering


* Elevation: 7277 ft
* Difficulty:
* Best months to climb:
* Convenient center:

That's a big foot print
Quoting Cotillion:
So, it's confirmed to be Nabro.

Could've been asleep for 8, 9, maybe even 10,000 years if it's last eruption was in the Holocene as guessed. Could be even longer, who knows?

Asleep for that long. That is one volcano who desperately needs a strong espresso.



Not in recorded history, but many millions of years ago, the Siberian Traps eruption may have been implicated in the 'Great Dying' extinction event.

Yeah, but: from the Volcanism Blog:

"Nabro is a stratovolcano reaching to 2,218 metres a.s.l., truncated by nested calderas of 5 km and 8 km diameter, the latter caldera having a wide breach to the SW. Although Nabro has no recorded Holocene eruptive activity, the GVP (from which this description comes) notes that ‘ Some very recent lava flows were erupted from NNW-trending fissures transverse to the trend of the Nabro volcanic range’, so if the current activity is from the Nabro complex it does not necessarily represent the surprise re-awakening of the volcano after millennia of dormancy."
There's that swirl still.

Quoting aquak9:


and I try to read every last one of'm, too.

We had another tracker bomber. How your weather been, plain as normal, no rain?
Wow. How exciting to sneak online for a few only to discover Walternator whining....

ANYhoo.... Looks like the bulk of the ash/smoke/cloud etc. from Nabro is going to end up over the Middle East, rather than drifting more directly downwind.... implications for impacts similar to SAL over the eastern ATL seem lower probability ATM....

Still waiting for some on-site images to pop up on the net....
Quoting aquak9:


and I try to read every last one of'm, too.


That's really hard. You leave the blog for 5 minutes, and suddenly you have another 100 posts to read.
2112. Patrap
Quoting AussieStorm:

That's a big foot print


Indeed,,and unfortunately they may be Hikers and others lost in the Eruption.
...and I'm still reading them.
2115. RJT185
Quoting Waltanater:
2102. TropicalAnalystwx13 2:36 PM GMT on June 13, 2011

Don't let anybody rush you, we are in no hurry. There is nothing of severe importance going on right now

Yeah, no rush, just 2000 posts of volcanic ash and non-sense.


You know, you could just take it easy man.
2116. Levi32
Volcanoes affect the atmosphere. Meteorology is the study of the atmosphere. Enough said.
Quoting Waltanater:
2102. TropicalAnalystwx13 2:36 PM GMT on June 13, 2011

Don't let anybody rush you, we are in no hurry. There is nothing of severe importance going on right now

Yeah, no rush, just 2000+ posts of volcanic ash and non-sense.


Feel free to go elsewhere. One of the interesting things about this blog is the diversity of knowledge and interests. Last I heard we were not here just for you.
Quoting Levi32:
Volcanoes affect the atmosphere. Meteorology is the study of the atmosphere. Enough said.

exactly, well put.
Quoting Waltanater:
2102. TropicalAnalystwx13 2:36 PM GMT on June 13, 2011

Don't let anybody rush you, we are in no hurry. There is nothing of severe importance going on right now

Yeah, no rush, just 2000+ posts of volcanic ash and non-sense.

you were never taught that if you have nothing good to say, it's better to say nothing at all?
2121. Levi32
Off to work. Later all.
It'll be interesting to see how far the ash get's into the stratosphere since it erupted in the Tropics...
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Monday, June 13th, with Video
You have very good up dates? What is your Weather background?
2124. emcf30
Excerpt out of bigthink that Nea post earlier.

One interesting note is speculation of how any extending periods of ash might effect the hurricane season as the ash is blown westward over Africa to the Atlantic
Quoting Waltanater:
2102. TropicalAnalystwx13 2:36 PM GMT on June 13, 2011

Don't let anybody rush you, we are in no hurry. There is nothing of severe importance going on right now

Yeah, no rush, just 2000+ posts of volcanic ash and non-sense.


Are you really complaining about the number of comments and us talking about volcanoes. If you don't like it, there are thousands of other blogs on here you can go read. Seriously.
Quoting Levi32:
Off to work. Later all.


See ya Levi.
I'm finding myself becoming curious about the long delay in officially announcing which volcano blew its stack... and speculating about the possibility that it was neither Dubbi nor Nabro.

Ignoring the dots labeled with HOD(HodeidaInternational) and ASA(AssabInternational)

The centermost dot(s) in the cluster are the (nearly co-located) epicenters where yesterday the magnitude5.1quake stuck at 3:37pmGMT and the magnitude5.7quake struck at 8:32pmGMT.
~18.2kilometres to the NorthEast is Dubbi : ~9.9kilometre to the(east of due)South is Nabro
The bloated unconnected dot is the 9:03pmGMT magnitude5.7quake's epicenter _AND_
a third*volcano at 13.524n41.617e ~0.6kilometres to the southwest of that third epicenter.

There appears to be remnants of at least two more within a couple of kilometres of that 3rd epicenter. (Note that the third volcano is about as close to the 2nd epicenter as Nabro.)
A volcanic reawakening there might explain the delay in an official announcement and the lack of news out of Afambo, the nearest Eritrean town likely to have cellphone communications.
(The 3rd volcano rim would be the most likely spot to place a cellphone tower. And a major-for-Eritrea road runs eastward near the south of the rim.)

* Sorry. Can't get the blog program to allow a GoogleMaps satellite-view link to work. And the GreatCircleMapper won't show a finer(more closeup)view to separate the dots.
Quoting Cotillion:
So, it's confirmed to be Nabro.

Could've been asleep for 8, 9, maybe even 10,000 years if it's last eruption was in the Holocene as guessed. Could be even longer, who knows?

Asleep for that long. That is one volcano who desperately needs a strong espresso.



Not in recorded history, but many millions of years ago, the Siberian Traps eruption may have been implicated in the 'Great Dying' extinction event.


Sorry i havent studied up on this yet, is this Volcano
left over from from the Siberian Traps eruption?
Quoting emcf30:
Excerpt out of bigthink that Nea post earlier.

One interesting note is speculation of how any extending periods of ash might effect the hurricane season as the ash is blown westward over Africa to the Atlantic


It seems as if the ash is being blown more northwesterly than westerly.
Walt. Get the drift. There is a connection between this particular volcanic eruption and the tropical wx we are watching. That's one reason we r watching it.

I'm starting 2 wonder if u r just trolling the blog for fun with these comments. Just IMO.... YMMV.

I know last night I was thinking more of a direct westerly drift of particles. Obviously my understanding of prevailing winds in that part of Africa has improved since then. So everything is a potential learning situation.

Cool out.
2131. Bitmap7
Its ethiopia. "Who Cares" is the media philosophy on this one. Why pay attention to that when there are sex scandals going on in the US.
2132. emcf30
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


It seems as if the ash is being blown more northwesterly than westerly.


Agreed
Quoting Bitmap7:
Its ethiopia. "Who Cares" is the media philosophy on this one. Why pay attention to that when there are sex scandals going on in the US.

I'm thinking it's the lack of information getting out of the area is the problem. News channels want footage to show along with reporting them.
2134. FLdewey
Standard issue morning on das blog I see?
Quoting Waltanater:
2116. Levi32 2:43 PM GMT on June 13, 2011
Volcanoes affect the atmosphere. Meteorology is the study of the atmosphere. Enough said.

That's exactly my point! Then you should SAY NO MORE!

BTW it is the "eruption" of volcanoes, not volcanoes themselves. 'Nuff said!



What are you going to do if the next blog is on the Volcano? LOL.

Regardless, members will still be talking about it.
Quoting blsealevel:


Sorry i havent studied up on this yet, is this Volcano
left over from from the Siberian Traps eruption?


No, no, no.

Completely exclusive from one another.

Just to point out that supervolcanoes are capable of mass extinction from a separate comment. It's probably Mother Earth's most dangerous weapon. Siberian Traps eruption was an extremely long time ago - 250 million years ago or so, Permian/Triassic boundary. As the name suggests, it was in Siberia, Russia.

You can sleep soundly :)
Quoting Bitmap7:
Its ethiopia. "Who Cares" is the media philosophy on this one. Why pay attention to that when there are sex scandals going on in the US.


True.. I was reading the drudge report (I have no idea why) and I doubt they even know where it is.. more less what it is.
2127. aspectre

Seems this is one larger complex of volcanic activity with several potential "vent" spots... will be quite interesting to see exactly where the venting is taking place.... the geologists sure seem excited.... lol
Quoting aspectre:
I'm finding myself becoming curious about the long delay in officially announcing which volcano blew its stack... and speculating about the possibility that it was neither Dubbi nor Nabro.

Ignoring the dots labeled with HOD(HodeidaInternational) and ASA(AssabInternational)

The centermost dot(s) in the cluster are the (nearly co-located) epicenters where yesterday the magnitude5.1quake stuck at 3:37pmGMT and the magnitude5.7quake struck at 8:32pmGMT.
~18.2kilometres to the NorthEast is Dubbi : ~9.9kilometre to the (east of) dueSouth is Nabro
The bloated unconnected dot is the 9:03pmGMT magnitude5.7quake's epicenter _AND_
a third*volcano at 13.524n41.617e ~0.6kilometres to the southeast of that third epicenter.

There appears to be remnants of at least two more within a couple of kilometres of that 3rd epicenter. (Note that the third volcano is about as close to the 2nd epicenter as Nabro.)
A volcanic reawakening there might explain the delay in an official announcement and the lack of news out of Afambo, the nearest Eritrean town likely to have cellphone communications.
(The 3rd volcano rim would be the most likely spot to place a cellphone tower. And a major-for-Eritrea road runs eastward near the south of the rim.)

* Sorry. Can't get the blog program to allow a GoogleMaps satellite-view link to work. And the GreatCircleMapper doesn't show a finer(more closeup)view.


Lack of feet on the ground because of it's isolation, plus the probability of it being extremely dangerous in the area make it difficult to figure out what it really going on. So all the estimates of which volcano erupted are based on all the various satellite views. Hopefully a first person account will come out soon.
Alright, I'm gone again. May be back later.... So likely to see u on the new blog... stay cool!
2141. Bitmap7
Ethiopia UPDATE (10 AM Eastern): Well, leave it to an eruption this week to not be simple. It appears that the eruption in Eritrea from not from Dubbi but rather from Nabro, an even more mysteries volcano. It is a composite volcano with no known historical eruption - in fact, very little is known about the volcano beyond the fact that it is part of a volcanic complex that has a number of nested calderas.
2142. Jax82
someone in here has a case of the Mundays.
What could this Volcano do to the ITC?
Quoting PcolaDan:


Lack of feet on the ground because of it's isolation, plus the probability of it being extremely dangerous in the area make it difficult to figure out what it really going on. So all the estimates of which volcano erupted are based on all the various satellite views. Hopefully a first person account will come out soon.

Not to mention the hostile environment, both environmentally and politically.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Alright, I'm gone again. May be back later.... So likely to see u on the new blog... stay cool!

I'm not cool... i'm cold.
Quoting Bitmap7:
Its ethiopia. "Who Cares" is the media philosophy on this one. Why pay attention to that when there are sex scandals going on in the US.


Actually the volcano is in Eritrea, even LESS interesting to media.
2147. aquak9
aussie- same old same old...hand waltenater some of your YellowDrank- he needs it!
2148. ncstorm
If this eruption is related to tropical hurricanes, I should expect to see the NHC talk about this in their next discussion??
2149. Bitmap7
Quoting PcolaDan:


Actually the volcano is in Eritrea, even LESS interesting to media.


Yeah, in fact this is the first time I am hearing of a country named Eritrea.
Good Morning..........Given the late hour and still no post from Dr. M, I would imagine he will be addressing the volcano issue and putting together lots of charts and analog comparisons....
Quoting ncstorm:
If this eruption is related to tropical hurricanes, I should expect to see the NHC talk about this in their next discussion??


Unlikely, because we still do not know what kind of impact it COULD have on our hurricane season.

I think the impacts would be small, if any.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning..........Given the late hour and still no post from Dr. M, I would imagine he will be addressing the volcano issue and putting together lots of charts and analog comparisons....


He is actually having a virus problem this morning.
Quoting ncstorm:
If this eruption is related to tropical hurricanes, I should expect to see the NHC talk about this in their next discussion??

If the ash was moving westerly i might expect them to maybe mention it, but since it's not i wouldn't.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Not to mention the hostile environment, both environmentally and politically.


That may in fact be a bigger issue. That is one of the most dangerous areas of the world.
Quoting aquak9:
aussie- same old same old...hand waltenater some of your YellowDrank- he needs it!

Yeah, I would hand him the bottle.
2156. barbamz
I hope at least the plume will stop the ongoing bombing on the border between North and South Sudan. Reuters is covering this, but doesen't pay any attention to the volcano yet.

http://af.reuters.com/news/country/?type=sudanNew s
Quoting PcolaDan:


That may in fact be a bigger issue. That is one of the most dangerous areas of the world.

I work with a guy from Eritrea. He has told me things i can't repeat or want to remember. I think if you google Eritrea and Ethiopia war, you'll get what I mean.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


He is actually having a virus problem this morning.


Thanks for the info...........On the volcano issue, a possible effect on h-season is pretty speculative and depends on a lot of factors related to duration of eruption, how much ash, steering currents, effect on SSTs in the MDR; almost similar to SAL issues; it might have a great impact or it might not.
It's always amusing when someone comes into a forum (or into a RW room) just to complain about the current topic(s), and when you ask them what they'd like to discuss, they only stomp their feet and say, "I don't know! Just not what you guys are talking about!"

Ah, human nature. Always entertaining... ;-)

Far more entertaining, however--and interesting--would be if the volcano were, as suggested here, neither Nabro nor Dubbi. Parhaps a new fissure vent? Paricutin in Eritrea?
2160. P451
24 Hours

Quoting Bitmap7:


Yeah, in fact this is the first time I am hearing of a country named Eritrea.


It was part of Ethiopia for a while. The bold below is what we mostly heard about on the news, if anything.

...which in turn led to Eritrea's annexation as Ethiopia's 14th province in 1952. This was the culmination of a gradual process of takeover by the Ethiopian authorities, a process which included a 1959 edict establishing the compulsory teaching of Amharic, the main language of Ethiopia, in all Eritrean schools. The lack of regard for the Eritrean population led to the formation of an independence movement in the early 1960s (1961), which erupted into a 30-year war against successive Ethiopian governments that ended in 1991. Following a UN-supervised referendum in Eritrea (dubbed UNOVER) in which the Eritrean people overwhelmingly voted for independence, Eritrea declared its independence and gained international recognition in 1993.
Quoting Cotillion:


No, no, no.

Completely exclusive from one another.

Just to point out that supervolcanoes are capable of mass extinction from a separate comment. It's probably Mother Earth's most dangerous weapon. Siberian Traps eruption was an extremely long time ago - 250 million years ago or so, Permian/Triassic boundary. As the name suggests, it was in Siberia, Russia.

You can sleep soundly :)


Umm, I should of reread, must of had some kind of brain thing going on sorry and thanks
The Wallow Fire is now up to 407 square miles, a bit smaller than 2002's Rodeo-Chediski fire, which consumed a little over 732 square miles. Inciweb lists the blaze as 10% contained, so they're making progress...
Link says they know the volcano that erupted.
Link
Quoting barbamz:
I hope at least the plume will stop the ongoing bombing on the border between North and South Sudan. Reuters is covering this, but doesen't pay any attention to the volcano yet.

http://af.reuters.com/news/country/?type=sudanNew s


Hi Barb. Unfortunately I don't know if anything can stop the violence in that area. Since the vote for the south to become their own country the violence has gotten worse because of........ OIL. If they can't fly aircraft then they will just throw in more ground forces.
2166. Grothar
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Link says they know the volcano that erupted.
Link


Would have been nice if they spelled it correctly.
2167. Bitmap7
Well gentlemen, I have done my research on Eritrea and found it to be a new country. More interestingly though, is that it seems to have some of the most beautiful African women in the world.
2168. barbamz
Quoting PcolaDan:


Hi Barb. Unfortunately I don't know if anything can stop the violence in that area. Since the vote for the south to become their own country the violence has gotten worse because of........ OIL. If they can't fly aircraft then they will just throw in more ground forces.


Hi Dan, sadly you may be right. A volcanic fissure should open along the border between all these countries to protect them from each other ...
2169. Grothar
2170. aquak9
Gro- still spewing? not letting up yet?

trying to catch as much as I can here in as little as time as possible
Quoting Grothar:


Looks like the ash clouds getting worse in that pic
2172. hcubed
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


It seems as if the ash is being blown more northwesterly than westerly.


At this time. As we've seen from other recent volcanic eruptions, the "cloud" may drift as the prevailing winds change. There's still a chance that some garbage may wind up in the MDR, possibly supressing hurricane development.

Too soon to say.
Hey, Waltanater: NEW BLOG ENTRY.

;-)
Quoting hcubed:


At this time. As we've seen from other recent volcanic eruptions, the "cloud" may drift as the prevailing winds change. There's still a chance that some garbage may wind up in the MDR, possibly supressing hurricane development.

Too soon to say.

This is where the Chile ash has gone.

Wouldn't be surprised this could be the same but take a little longer.
2175. DEKRE
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Link says they know the volcano that erupted.
Link


It is really a moot point, which one it is. This whole region (Afar Triangle) is one big active area, the continuation of the Red Sea and part of the Great Rift, where Africa is breaking apart.
Quoting hcubed:


At this time. As we've seen from other recent volcanic eruptions, the "cloud" may drift as the prevailing winds change. There's still a chance that some garbage may wind up in the MDR, possibly supressing hurricane development.

Too soon to say.


I'v got to assume it's going to effect the carib. weather some kind of way might take a while though.
2177. Jax82
Hang out at the NEW BLOG
Isn't the composition of Ash and "African Dust" Different? (shape size weight) I thought is was the micro in nature of the dust (micro in size) from the Sahara is what attached itself to water molecules that weighted the water molecule down that "potentially" affected (suppress) tropical development.
2164 hurricanehunter27 "Link says they know the volcano that erupted."

Thanks. Up 'til now, it's pretty much been bloggers reporting what other bloggers were saying, and satellite views without landmarks.