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Arizona wildfires spread smoke 1,000 miles; 94L little threat to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:50 PM GMT on June 07, 2011

Smoke from Arizona's third largest fire on record, the massive Wallow fire, has now blown downwind over 1,000 miles to Iowa. The fire, which is 0% contained, is expected to rage full-force for at least three more days due to unfavorable weather. Hot, dry, and windy weather is predicted again today over Eastern Arizona, where NOAA has issued red flag warnings for critical fire conditions. A large trough of low pressure is anchored over the Southwest, and several disturbances rippling along this trough will bring strong southwesterly surface winds of 20 - 30 mph, with gusts near 35 mph, through Thursday. Extremely low humidities of 5 - 15% and hot summer temperatures are also expected, creating a dangerous fire weather situation. Yesterday, Luna, New Mexico, located about 50 miles northeast of the fire, had wind gusts in excess of 30 mph for 8 hours, temperatures near 80°F, and humidities as low as 12%. During the day yesterday, the fire grew from 300 square miles to 365 square miles, 30% of the size of Rhode Island. A separate fire burning in Southeast Arizona, the 163-square-mile Horseshoe Two fire, is the state's 5th largest fire on record. According to the Interagency Fire Center, 3.5 million acres have burned in the U.S. so far this year, the most on record for this early in the year--and more than double the 10-year average from 2001 - 2010 of 1.4 million acres. Extreme to exceptional drought conditions over most of Texas, New Mexico, and Eastern Arizona are largely responsible for the record fire season.


Figure 1. Active wildfires and smoke as visualized at 9am EDT June 7, 2011 using our wundermap for the U.S. with the Fire layer turned on. Smoke from the Wallow fire and Horseshoe Two fire in Arizona extended more than 1,000 miles, covering most of the Midwest.


Figure 2. Smoke billows from the rapidly growing Wallow fire in Eastern Arizona in this image taken by NASA's Aqua satellite on June 6, 2011. The fire beneath the smoke is outlined in red. A large pyrocumulus cloud spawned by the fire is visible along the Arizona-New Mexico border. Pyrocumulus clouds are produced by the intense heating associated with fires or volcanic eruptions. Image credit: NASA Natural Hazards website.

Caribbean disturbance 94L little threat to develop
The large, disorganized tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) in the Western Caribbean near Jamaica is looking much less organized this morning, but is still capable of bringing heavy rains as it pushes slowly northwards at less than 5 mph. Satellite estimates of rainfall for the 24-hour period ending at 8pm EDT Monday night run as high as 5 inches for northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras, with 2 - 4 inches falling over portions of Jamaica and southeast Cuba. Satellite loops show a decrease in the heavy thunderstorm activity and organization of 94L in recent hours, and the storm's low-level spiral bands and upper-level outflow are very poorly defined. The storm's center of low pressure is located about 100 miles south-southeast of Grand Cayman Island. Water vapor satellite loops show the Caribbean is quite moist, and water temperatures in the Central Caribbean are about 1°C above average, 28 - 28.5°C, which is 2°C above the threshold needed to support development of a tropical storm. Wind shear has edged into the high range, 20 - 25 knots, which has probably contributed to 94L's deterioration.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of 94L.

Since 94L is so large and poorly organized, today's mission by the Hurricane Hunters has been cancelled. The storm is moving slowly to the north, into a band of very high wind shear of 30 - 50 knots that lies over Cuba and the southern Bahama Islands. The SHIPS model predicts shear will rise above 30 knots by late tonight, which will make development into a tropical depression difficult. This morning's 00Z and 06Z model runs were unimpressed with 94L, with most of them showing little or no development. The 00Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts that a gap may open up in the shear sufficient for the storm to organize into a tropical depression late this week, but this is looking increasingly unlikely. At 8am EDT today, NHC gave 94L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. Regardless of development, 94L is capable of bringing heavy rains of 2 - 4 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Haiti through Thursday. These rains will probably spread northwards into the Bahama Islands, and possibly South Florida, by Thursday or Friday.

Jeff Masters
Wallow Fire
Wallow Fire
AZ Smoke in Colorado Springs
AZ Smoke in Colorado Springs
Past several days Pikes Peak and foothills covered in smoke. Photo taken at 3:30pm.
Wallow Fire
Wallow Fire

Fire

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting txjac:


Does something like this impact weather? If so, how?


Good question...I'm not sure, I just found it at the top of the NWS webpage.
Quoting txjac:


I was thinking the same thing. I think that we are going to see many deaths due to heat. I know that we have cooling centers set up here in Houston especially for the old folks and homeless. My AC is running full time and it cant keep up in the afternoon.

New Years Day back in 2005 my daughter was only 20days old. We had the hottest day ever experienced in Sydney. top temp at the house we were living in at that time. 45.8C(114.44F). My wife had her 70y.o mother and 45y.o sister visiting from the Philippines. My son's room was about 6ft wide by about 8ft long. It had it's own AC. we all went into that bedroom. had the AC set at about 28C(82F). That was our cool room. It was also right next to the kitchen and the fridge was stocked with cold water and soft drink. The window had thick curtains. It really made a big difference. Could not sit within 2mts of unprotected windows cause of the radiating heat coming through the windows.
Quoting DestinJeff:


for #3 and #6, do we need to run in opposite directions here in the northern hemisphere?

I got that from an American website. So i would say no.
Quoting AussieStorm:

How To A Rain Dance

1. Never do a rain dance on a hill.
2. Make sure you have a lot of room so you
don't run into anything.
3. Spin around in clockwise circles.
4. Make up your own rain chant. It should be rythmical
and easy to say fast.
5. Yell your rain chant while spinning around in circles.
6. If you are trying to get rid of rain, spin in
counterclockwise circles and say your chant backwards.


iam going to do a snow dance for you how many ft you want
Quoting 69Viking:
Wow, I grew up in Southern MN and right now my home town and Minneapolis are both sitting at 98 degrees! The old record for today WAS 95!
It's over 90F for the 2nd day in a row here in Fargo. Fortunately a very strong cold front is supposed to make things A LOT cooler the next few days, High of around 60F tomorrow! With the temperature gradient that strong I hope we don't have something like the the derecho with 90mph winds we had on Memorial Day.
000
FXUS62 KMFL 072344
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
744 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2011

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST...WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING 10-12 KNOTS
AFTER 01-02Z THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KNOTS BY 15Z WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHRA AND
TSRA COULD FORM AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY, BUT PROBABILITY AND EXPECTED
COVERAGE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.




Isn't there a song call "Slip, Slip, Slippin Away"?
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


I want pictures of that, lol.

me too
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The NWS Space Weather Prediction Center has indicated that a dramatic eruption from an otherwise unimpressive solar region earlier today is expected to cause G1 (minor) to G2 (moderate) levels of geomagnetic storm activity tomorrow, June 8, beginning around 1800 UTC (2:00 p.m. EDT), with the passage of a fast coronal mass ejection. No significant impacts have been reported to NWS at this time. Updates on impacts resulting from the impending geomagnetic storm will be provided by SWPC as information becomes available.

Link
Quoting alfabob:

Link


That's cool...and hot!
This is like the same freaking weather pattern we had in june of 2008.A record breaking heat wave.In all sorts of parts in the country.
512. txjac
Quoting AussieStorm:

New Years Day back in 2005 my daughter was only 20days old. We had the hottest day ever experienced in Sydney. top temp at the house we were living in at that time. 45.8C(114.44F). My wife had her 70y.o mother and 45y.o sister visiting from the Philippines. My son's room was about 6ft wide by about 8ft long. It had it's own AC. we all went into that bedroom. had the AC set at about 28C(82F). That was our cool room. It was also right next to the kitchen and the fridge was stocked with cold water and soft drink. The window had thick curtains. It really made a big difference. Could not sit within 2mts of unprotected windows cause of the radiating heat coming through the windows.



That is hot! I would have melted. I do have those thick shades on my window that are supposed to block heat as I live in an older building and the insulation isnt quite what it should be.

Thats one day I bet you dont ever want to re-live
Keeper- I'd like a quarter foot of snow, please, next winter.

no pictures. Ya'll will just hafta take my word for it, when I do it.
Had to read on a bit as the models have slowed things down a bit, still hope. Trough retreating Nward? What..

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2011/

DISCUSSION...

LARGE BRUSH FIRE CONTINUES IN THE WESTERN METRO SECTIONS OF MIAMI
DADE COUNTY WITH BOTH RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 88-D RADAR
RETURNS INDICATING A PLUME OF SMOKE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
REMAINS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED. THE RECENT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THAT THE LOW WILL SLOWLY START TO MOVE NORTHWARD IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT. THE MAIN
EFFECT WILL BE IN INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS AS DEPICTED
BY THE RECENT SUITE OF GUIDANCE. THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE A
LITTLE INCONSISTENT IN WHEN THE IN-FLUX OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE REGION...WITH THE 12Z
GUIDANCE SLOWING THAT SCENARIO DOWN...INDICATING THAT THE DEEPER
LAYERED MOISTURE MAY NOT APPROACH THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY. THE
GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...MORE OR LESS IN TANDEM WITH THE
BROAD SURFACE LOW. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FORECAST TO BE IN A FAVORABLE POSITION TO ENHANCE CHANCES OF
CONVECTION...THERE IS AN INCREASING TREND IN THE POP FORECAST
THROUGH FRIDAY.
FOR WEDNESDAY...THE 12Z GUIDANCE INDICATES A MAINLY
DRY FORECAST AS THE GUIDANCE SLOWED DOWN THE IN-FLUX OF MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...FOLLOWING THE EARLIER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DECIDED TO DEEP
AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MOISTURE ARRIVING AND ALSO
FOR THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THEN ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE DEEPER LAYERED MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH AND ENTER THE REGION WITH A CHANCE OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST OVER THE REGION. FOR NOW WAS CONSERVATIVE
ON THE POPS...WITH THE RECENT GUIDANCE SHOWING AN INCREASING
TREND. THE FORECAST CAN BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY AS WE GET CLOSER
TO THIS PERIOD.
Quoting washingtonian115:
This is like the same freaking weather pattern we had in june of 2008.A record breaking heat wave.In all sorts of parts in the country.


I'm really uneasy about this hurricane season. We've had a record number of tornadoes, some of the worst flooding in history, and on and on and on. Living in Southeastern NC, even though I'm not even 14 yet, and been around a while to see how other seasons have been like, I think we are going to have a bad hurricane season here in my area.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


iam going to do a snow dance for you how many ft you want

I'm going for the 1st time down to the Snowy Mountains in a few weeks. It's been snowing since early May. Some resorts have 50cm(19in already.
i will do it while iam out having my BBQ and watering the grass seed i have put down on the property


be back in a bit
518. j2008
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I'm really uneasy about this hurricane season. We've had a record number of tornadoes, some of the worst flooding in history, and on and on and on. Living in Southeastern NC, even though I'm not even 14 yet, and been around a while to see how other seasons have been like, I think we are going to have a bad hurricane season here in my area.

I also have a bad feeling about this season.
Tropical Depression #1 isn't so left weighted anymore. I think if it can build a little more convection on its right half, it can become Adrian.

520. txjac
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I'm really uneasy about this hurricane season. We've had a record number of tornadoes, some of the worst flooding in history, and on and on and on. Living in Southeastern NC, even though I'm not even 14 yet, and been around a while to see how other seasons have been like, I think we are going to have a bad hurricane season here in my area.


Let's just pray that that uneasy feeling doesnt come to anything and you can laugh about it later. Got my fingers crossed for a relatively mild season ...only rainfall where needed
Quoting DestinJeff:


for #3 and #6, do we need to run in opposite directions here in the northern hemisphere?
Did the old phonograph records spin the other direction Down Under?
I say this is what I think 94L LLCOC is elongated and partly open on the E/ESE side that why bouy at 17N 81W showing W/WSW winds and the rest showing a circulation some in the N showing NE in the NW showing NNE in the W showing N and in the SW shoing NW and in the S showing W
Quoting txjac:



That is hot! I would have melted. I do have those thick shades on my window that are supposed to block heat as I live in an older building and the insulation isn't quite what it should be.

That's one day I bet you don't ever want to re-live

We do get high temps when all the conditions are in line. But that day was "the" worst I have ever experienced.
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Did the old phonograph records spin the other direction Down Under?

I remember them, and no, my parents brought a whole lot from the UK.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Our local MET in West Palm tonight said that the heaviest rain most likely will stay offshore and the invest will only increase our daily rain chances to scattered (30%). Still hoping for a miracle though.


Not saying he doesn't know what hes talking about, but I think your local MET is wrong, most of the models bring Florida deep tropical moisture eventually, only a couple models don't, and they haven't been remotely consistent. All the forecasters around here as well as the NWS say there will be a surge of deep tropical moisture moving in, they just still have a 30 to 40% chance for now till the solution becomes more clear as to how much and when.
526. j2008
Quoting AussieStorm:

We do get high temps when all the conditions are in line. But that day was "the" worst I have ever experienced.

Worst I've experianced here in Arizona was about 115 a couple of years ago.
527. txjac
Quoting Jedkins01:


Not saying he doesn't know what hes talking about, but I think your local MET is wrong, most of the models bring Florida deep tropical moisture eventually, only a couple models don't, and they haven't been remotely consistent. All the forecasters around here as well as the NWS say there will be a surge of deep tropical moisture moving in, they just still have a 30 to 40% chance for now till the solution becomes more clear as to how much and when.



Yippee! for you all!
Quoting aquak9:
Aussie, things are just so different than when I was little. I believe we are entering uncharted territory. And I doubt that most Americans will be as adaptable as we need to be.

Oh, c'mon, don't be silly; nothing's changed nor changing. This bizarre and record breaking early June heat wave means nothing. Neither does the current record-breaking wildfire in Arizona, nor last month's record-breaking wildfires in Texas (nor the fact that they were both exacerbated by the record-breaking drought throughout the region). Neither does the record-breaking Missouri flooding this month, nor the record-breaking Mississippi flooding last month (both caused by record-breaking snowfall). Neither do the record-breaking tornadoes that occurred during record-breaking tornado outbreaks that happened during this record-breaking spring for tornadoes. Neither do the record-breaking east coast blizzards of this past winter. Neither did the record-breaking Australian floods, the record-breaking Colombian rains, the record-breaking British heat, nor the record-breaking Israeli heat wave from last fall. Neither does the fact that all this happened after the warmest year on record. So stop trying to make inferences; nothing's changed.

It's all just your imagination.

Trust us.

:-\
Quoting j2008:

I also have a bad feeling about this season.


Don't get worried. There's nothing we can do, except sit back and watch, anyway. Your folks will make sure you stay safe. :)
This is about 50miles west of Sydney on top of the Blue Mountains.
Katoomba Weather

33.71°S 150.31°E
1004m ASL
Now
32.5°F rising
Sky Observations: Clear
Wind: WSW 37km/h(22mph)
Wind Gusts: 50km/h(31mph)
Updated at 10:00 EST
Quoting Jedkins01:


Not saying he doesn't know what hes talking about, but I think your local MET is wrong, most of the models bring Florida deep tropical moisture eventually, only a couple models don't, and they haven't been remotely consistent. All the forecasters around here as well as the NWS say there will be a surge of deep tropical moisture moving in, they just still have a 30 to 40% chance for now till the solution becomes more clear as to how much and when.


I always believe about a quarter of what they say. This year is really bad though. One of the severe weather outbreaks this spring they were 8 hours off with the arrival of the supposed to be severe storms at 5pm. We'll it didn't get here till nearly 2am and of course had very little rain. Nonetheless, I looked it up and see things are delayed a bit. Here's to hoping.
Quoting washingtonian115:
This is like the same freaking weather pattern we had in june of 2008.A record breaking heat wave.In all sorts of parts in the country.
This one is more intense and widespread. The entire country east of the Rockies.The drought is extreme and widespread also. Yet we continue with flooding on the Missouri and Mississippi, while wildfires in the west are bad. What does August hold for us? When will things normalize? Or is this the beginning of the Summer From Hell. China is in a severe drought. Will Europe and Russia get hit again?
Quoting Jedkins01:


I am amazed at the general public's ignorance of common weather knowledge.

Ive been out playing sports many times during the wet season, and a powerful storm will blow in, and everyone else just continues playing in the game after I take cover, seemingly oblivious, then suddenly everyone panics when torrential rains and 50 mph winds sweep in with lighting bolts crashing all over the place. It happens every time. It seems most people have little awareness of
their surroundings for whatever reason.
I have noticed the exact same thing. I think it's because we live in an artificial world, now, and do not have the culturally-ingrained weather wisdom our pre-industrial ancestors passed from generation from generation. Pre-modern modern people, as well as people living in traditional societies today, have very intricate, if unscientific, knowledge and lore about their environment, including weather, they had to in order to survive.
And they could ride a horse without texting too.


: )
Quoting aquak9:
ok, now I've washed my car and posted an ON-TOPIC, BLOG-RELATED post. I ordered a set of bongos from EBay, too.

What else can I do to get it to rain here?


...um, you could call a plumber (or ask hubby)
and explain that you want them to
please come and remove the d
from your drain...
because you want...
um...
rain
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Did the old phonograph records spin the other direction Down Under?


Only if you wanted to hear the hidden heathen messages.
Quoting j2008:

Worst I've experianced here in Arizona was about 115 a couple of years ago.

It had been building up for a fair few days, and even for days after it was around that temp. Bad bush fire season here also.
Quoting Patrap:
And they could ride a horse without texting too.


: )


haha so true.

I am so glad I can say with all honesty that I do not text while driving, better yet I don't really text much at all. It has its usage, but common, texting and driving is down right stupid. As I was saying earlier, wisdom is a dying thing in today's society, its not just the prideful responses to severe weather, but everyday life.

I have a neighbor who foolishly mocks me for telling him its dangerous to drink and drive, and calls me a "not a real man" because I take cover during storms. Its only a matter of time before he or someone his hurt for such outrageous decision making and thinking.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Good question...I'm not sure, I just found it at the top of the NWS webpage.
Might have an effect on cell phone and sat. service. Doubt ti smashes into or tamps down much of anything.
540. j2008
Quoting AussieStorm:

It had been building up for a fair few days, and even for days after it was around that temp. Bad bush fire season here also.

That sounds really bad, sometimes it shocks me how bad weather can get. There are so many extreams to the weather.
cat 2 hurricane
Quoting Neapolitan:

Oh, c'mon, don't be silly; nothing's changed nor changing. This bizarre and record breaking early June heat wave means nothing. Neither does the current record-breaking wildfire in Arizona, nor last month's record-breaking wildfires in Texas (nor the fact that they were both exacerbated by the record-breaking drought throughout the region). Neither does the record-breaking Missouri flooding this month, nor the record-breaking Mississippi flooding last month (both caused by record-breaking snowfall). Neither do the record-breaking tornadoes that occurred during record-breaking tornado outbreaks that happened during this record-breaking spring for tornadoes. Neither do the record-breaking east coast blizzards of this past winter. Neither did the record-breaking Australian floods, the record-breaking Colombian rains, the record-breaking British heat, nor the record-breaking Israeli heat wave from last fall. Neither does the fact that all this happened after the warmest year on record. So stop trying to make inferences; nothing's changed.

It's all just your imagination.

Trust us.

:-\

Wild Imaginations.
That's all it is, man.
Maintain the Status Quo.
"Something" will save us.
You'll see!
In the Meantime,
ONWARD>>>>>>>

to oblivion
Wow.
New GFS shows little rain for Florida over the next 7 days. Our Tampa forecast has gone down to the obligatory 20% every day.
I was really hoping for that system to push up some rain.
Pool needs to be topped off again...
Quoting Patrap:
And they could ride a horse without texting too.


: )
I'd be more willing to try texting on a "good broke" horse than an automobile. Never have trusted those contraptions.
maybe a new low soon!!
Quoting Patrap:
And they could ride a horse without texting too.


: )


LOL, but Central Asian nomads could accurately use a bow and arrow from a moving horse!
Quoting Jedkins01:


haha so true.

I am so glad I can say with all honesty that I do not text while driving, better yet I don't really text much at all. It has its usage, but common, texting and driving is down right stupid. As I was saying earlier, wisdom is a dying thing in today's society, its not just the prideful responses to severe weather, but everyday life.

I have a neighbor who foolishly mocks me for telling him its dangerous to drink and drive, and calls me a "not a real man" because I take cover during storms. Its only a matter of time before he or someone his hurt for such outrageous decision making and thinking.

A few years ago before I hurt my back. I used to play baseball. Playing summer comp, I could see a storm coming in, we play with aluminum bats here in amateur league, I was next up to bat, I could see the lightening with thunder not far behind, I refused to go up to the plate to bat. My coach asked me why. I told him I didn't want to bat with so much lightening around. within seconds a bolt hit a tree about 100yards away. Straight away the game was called off. Hell, I wasn't going to be a bloody lightening rod. Been struck once already and barely survived, don't want to be struck ever again.
We have a TD in the eastern Pacific and people are still obsessing over a wimpy Caribbean monsoon low that has pretty much 0 chance of developing?

Quoting Jedkins01:


haha so true.

I am so glad I can say with all honesty that I do not text while driving, better yet I don't really text much at all. It has its usage, but common, texting and driving is down right stupid. As I was saying earlier, wisdom is a dying thing in today's society, its not just the prideful responses to severe weather, but everyday life.

I have a neighbor who foolishly mocks me for telling him its dangerous to drink and drive, and calls me a "not a real man" because I take cover during storms. Its only a matter of time before he or someone his hurt for such outrageous decision making and thinking.


Sounds like a stereotypical fool whose last words will be "hey guys, watch this".
549. Tygor
Quoting PcolaDan:


April
Month to date precipitation 0.76 3.89
Year to date precipitation 14.67 20.31

May
Month to date precipitation 2.65 4.40
Year to date precipitation 17.32 24.71

June
Month to date precipitation 0.00 1.29
Year to date precipitation 17.32 26.00



Average Rates
Month Precipitation
Jan 5.34in.
Feb 4.68in.
Mar 6.40in.
Apr 3.89in.
May 4.40in.
Jun 6.39in.
Jul 8.02in.
Aug 6.85in.
Sept 5.75in.
Oct 4.13in.
Nov 4.46in.
Dec 3.97in.



Even though you are under average, you are at least still getting rain pretty consistently. San Antonio is only about 10" under average for the year, but .82" since January 6th is bad even for here.
Quoting PcolaDan:


Only if you wanted to hear the hidden heathen messages.
Thats why I asked. Wondered if they'd imported a bunch from Up Yonder and carried them out beyond the Black Stump and that might explain some things.
It's really windy over here in ECFL 2nite.
Windy, drought, not a good combination.
Quoting pottery:

Wild Imaginations.
That's all it is, man.
Maintain the Status Quo.
"Something" will save us.
You'll see!
In the Meantime,
ONWARD>>>>>>>

to oblivion
Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.
hey, if i wanted to watch blobs all day I'd watch my belly
Quoting Chicklit:
It's really windy over here in ECFL 2nite.
Windy, drought, not a good combination.


you're far from the fire sweetie
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Thats why I asked. Wondered if they'd imported a bunch from Up Yonder and carried them out beyond the Black Stump and that might explain some things.

Yeah and go for a walk-about back-o-bourke and visit the never never,
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
maybe a new low soon!!


yeah... i barely missed the maybe
Quoting serialteg:


you're far from the fire sweetie

thanks, serial.
am surprised to see there's still something left of 94L 2nite.

Is this th longest standing invest?
Yo: Adrian--

EP, 01, 2011060800, , BEST, 0, 116N, 1003W, 35, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 0, 0, 60, 1008, 200, 45, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ADRIAN, M,
merciless dry air digging out the moisture.

Link

How many ULLs did we watch erode away systems last year?
Rain and Hail 2 days in a Row.

I feel privileged.
Thredbo Top Station Observations
Time: Wed 10:00 EST
Wind Direction: W
Wind Speed:37km/h(22mph)
Wind Gusts:52km/h(32mph)
Temp:-7.0C(19.4F)
Dew Point:-8.1C(17.4F)
Feels Like:-16.5C(2.3F)
Relative Humidity:92%
Pressure:1012hPa
Quoting AussieStorm:

Yeah and go for a walk-about back-o-bourke and visit the never never,


Quoting AussieStorm:

Yeah and go for a walk-about back-o-bourke and visit the never never,
Hey Aussie, we have an Australian restaurant here so if you are ever in the neighborhood you can drop by for a kangaroo steak :)and a nice cold Foster's.
Good evening, guys. Just got on here today. I see 94L is down to 10%, as it should be.

I still have my attention on Tropical Depression One-E.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Good evening, guys. Just got on here today. I see 94L is down to 10%, as it should be.

I still have my attention on Tropical Depression One-E.

It's now Adrian; see comment #560.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Hey Aussie, we have an Australian restaurant here so if you are ever in the neighborhood you can drop by for a kangaroo steak :)

I hope they know how to cook it properly. 2mins on each side is all it needs on a high heat, anymore and it becomes like rubber.
Quoting AussieStorm:

I hope they know how to cook it properly. 2mins on each side is all it needs on a high heat, anymore and it becomes like rubber.
The owner and chef is a native Australian. He's a real nice guy.
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:



Quoting AussieStorm:
Weather Underground Blob Watchers Anonymous Group meeting.

.... and they all have Black Eyes from banging their heads on the keyboard....
572. j2008
Quoting Neapolitan:

It's now Adrian; see comment #560.

No NHC still hs it TD 1E.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
The owner and chef is a native Australian. He's a real nice guy.

What do you think of Roo meat?
Quoting j2008:

No NHC still hs it TD 1E.

ATCF says Adrian, so it's Adrian.

EP, 01, 2011060800, , BEST, 0, 116N, 1003W, 35, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 0, 0, 60, 1008, 200, 45, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ADRIAN, M,
yo,,"Adrian"



Quoting pottery:

.... and they all have Black Eyes from banging their heads on the keyboard....

Yeah
Quoting Neapolitan:

It's now Adrian; see comment #560.


I saw it like right after I posted. I hate being ninja'd. :(
look like we are going to have tropical storm Adrian soon by 11pm tonight.
579. txjac
Quoting AussieStorm:

What do you think of Roo meat?



I've heard that they are mean but they are too da%& cute to eat!
Quoting AussieStorm:

What do you think of Roo meat?
No way. He is trying to convince me to try it but I will stick to chicken.
This area looked interesting on rainbow.
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
look like we are going to have tropical storm Adrian soon by 11pm tonight.

It's only 8:40 here....
584. JLPR2
The spin that was just east of PR earlier today now has more 850mb vort than falling apart 94L.
01E/TS/A/CX
MARK
11.55N/100.23W
Quoting AussieStorm:

A few years ago before I hurt my back. I used to play baseball. Playing summer comp, I could see a storm coming in, we play with aluminum bats here in amateur league, I was next up to bat, I could see the lightening with thunder not far behind, I refused to go up to the plate to bat. My coach asked me why. I told him I didn't want to bat with so much lightening around. within seconds a bolt hit a tree about 100yards away. Straight away the game was called off. Hell, I wasn't going to be a bloody lightening rod. Been struck once already and barely survived, don't want to be struck ever again.


Smart choice, wait you were hit by lightning before? Really? How horrible!
Quoting AussieStorm:

I hope they know how to cook it properly. 2mins on each side is all it needs on a high heat, anymore and it becomes like rubber.


That would explain the long high bouncing. :|
Quoting JLPR2:
The spin that was just east of PR earlier today now has more 850mb vort than falling apart 94L.
This is funny. The worse 94L looks the better the vorticity.
589. j2008
Would anybody have a link to something that says its TS Adrian, everything I've found says its still TD 1E.
Quoting j2008:
Would anybody have a link to something that says its TS Adrian, everything I've found says its still TD 1E.


Link
Quoting Chicklit:
It's really windy over here in ECFL 2nite.
Windy, drought, not a good combination.
Same here in Deerfield Beach. The local weather says E@13 but here near the beach it's blowing easily 15-20 and gusty. This weather is a gift as far as comfort but it's killing my grass it's so dry.
592. j2008
Quoting Neapolitan:


Link

Thanks much.
Quoting j2008:
Would anybody have a link to something that says its TS Adrian, everything I've found says its still TD 1E.


EP, 01, 2011060800, , BEST, 0, 116N, 1003W, 35, 1003, TS
Dont forget to bookmark these links folks take the time to get for some.

Even if 94L dies, if may be brought back by the NHC if another surface feature forms near it or absorbs it. The way the low is being elongated makes me think it will be absorbed rather than fade out.
Not Fade away


I'm a-gonna tell you how it's gonna be
you're gonna give your love to me
I wanna love you night and day
you know my love a-not fade away
a-well, you know my love a-not fade away

My love a-bigger than a cadillac
I try to show it and you drive a-me back
your love for me a-got to be real
for you to know just how I feel
Already have my blog heading for tomorrow..."Enter TS Adrian...The first TS of the 2011 Pacific hurricane season forms"

Quoting j2008:
Would anybody have a link to something that says its TS Adrian, everything I've found says its still TD 1E.


tropical/general information

Link
From ATCF, hello Adrian:

EP, 01, 2011060800, , BEST, 0, 116N, 1003W, 35, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 0, 0, 60, 1008, 200, 45, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ADRIAN, M,
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
No way. He is trying to convince me to try it but I will stick to chicken.

Try it, you'll love it. very low in Fat also.
The season's over right?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Already have my blog heading for tomorrow..."Enter TS Adrian...The first TS of the 2011 Pacific hurricane season forms"



I like it, mon ami.
Quoting FLdewey:
The season's over right?


Yes, we will stay at 0-0-0 all season long, with no development at all :P

Sarcasm flag: ON
Quoting j2008:
Would anybody have a link to something that says its TS Adrian, everything I've found says its still TD 1E.

Quoting alfabob:
Even if 94L dies, if may be brought back by the NHC if another surface feature forms near it or absorbs it. The way the low is being elongated makes me think it will be absorbed rather than fade out.

The Return of The Undead Storm.
Spooky stuff....
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yes, we will stay at 0-0-0 all season long, with no development at all :P

Sarcasm flag: ON


Dewey was likewise being sarcastic.
Adrian looking pretty healthy right now
Quoting HurricaneKing:


Not a problem. It freaked me out when I first saw it happen before.

Another thing I've noticed is has anyone noticed the amount of what appears to be mid level dry air that is around td 1e? So far its managing to fight it off but if it was to spin up quickly it may ingest some of it. It's going to be fun to track over the next couple days. It's one of the storms that the professors at my college teach us to love to track. One that probably wont ever hit land and hurt anyone.
Environment surrounding it looks moist to me



(its centered around 100W)
Quoting KoritheMan:


Dewey was likewise being sarcastic.


I know.
CIMSS has TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN
Link
Sarcasm is not just a mood in Destin.

ALMOST got a coastal shower today... watched it die off as it came on shore... hundreds of feet from my house.

Grrrrrr.

At least there is a chaser on chaserTV in Florida now... gives me something to watch from work.
Bah... 40 comments too late! Anyways, track map up
Quoting pottery:

The Return of The Undead Storm.
Spooky stuff....


Son of Karen
>
CIMSS shows it has alot of SAL to deal with.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/splitW. jpg
Quoting TomTaylor:
Environment surrounding it looks moist to me



(its centered around 100W)


I never understand why that always shows more moisture than the water vapor loops. Because using water vapor imagry you see dry to the north with the outflow fanning out over it and some dry air to the south. If it stays smaller which it looks like its going to do now that its finally tightening up then its moisture envelope should hold.


Link
Quoting Bitmap7:
CIMSS shows it has alot of SAL to deal with.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/splitW. jpg


That is reflective of the very dry marine airmass that is inherently characteristic of that part of the Pacific.
Quoting Hurrykane:


Son of Karen

LoL.
Long-Lived Karen.
I remember her.
Stamina was her big issue. She had too much...




Conditions almost seem perfect for him to bomb out soon.
Trouble

What a difference

Quoting Hurrykane:
Trouble



ITCZ seems to be rising up on that, there is also a surprising lack of SAL.
Trouble dosent come from Africa the first week of June,,


Nor the second..




Quoting Hurrykane:


Or great differences in SST.


Precisely. The cooler waters innate to that portion of the basin creates subsidence.
Quoting Bitmap7:




Conditions almost seem perfect for him to bomb out soon.


SHIPS gave Adrian a high probability of undergoing Rapid Intensification over the next day or so.
Quoting Patrap:
Trouble dosent come from Africa the first week of June,,


Nor the second..






Sorry Patrap...I should have clarified what I was looking at...convection over and close to the western Sahel region...should help cut down on dust
Roger dat,,makes sense
look like a tropical storm to me.
Quoting FLdewey:
The season's over right?
I think you are on to something.
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
look like a tropical storm to me.

Wondered if you'd make one of them.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


SHIPS gave Adrian a high probability of undergoing Rapid Intensification over the next day or so.


Oh it did, wow. When a system has such great from from early its very indicative that it may undergo rapid intensification, especially when the atmospheric conditions are so right.
Quoting Hurrykane:
Trouble


It's been almost completely dust-free so far, and those waves will tend to keep it so.
It's a "chicken and egg" thing as one helps the other.
Less dust more rain more rain less dust.

Those waves tend to dry out over the ocean so early in the season though.


Would not be surprised to see a 60mph TS tommorrow imo.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITY

IN PUERTO RICO
PONCE

* UNTIL 1145 PM AST

* AT 844 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
HEAVY RAIN OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF PONCE. THIS RAIN WILL CAUSE
FLOODING ALONG RIO CERRILLOS AND RIO INABON.

------------------------------------------
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES

IN PUERTO RICO
BARCELONETA
MANATI

* UNTIL 1215 AM AST

* AT 907 PM AST...USGS RIVER SENSORS HAVE INDICATED THAT RIO GRANDE
DE MANATI IN MANATI HAS GONE OVER FLOOD STAGE AND CONTINUES TO RISE.
AT 25 FEET... RIO GRANDE DE MANATI IN MANATI FLOODS ROAD 666 IN
SECTOR CACHETE.

FOR THE RIO GRANDE DE MANATI NEAR MANATI- MANP4
FLOOD STAGE - 25 FEET.
AT 907 PM AST...THE USGS SENSOR INDICATED THE RIVER HAD RISEN
TO...25.08 FEET.
Trouble new low with 1009MB
Quoting Bitmap7:


Would not be surprised to see a 60mph TS tommorrow imo.


You are probably right.
It's a "chicken and egg" thing as one helps the other.

I thought it was a duck and a pond...

g'night ya'll
Quoting FLdewey:
Sarcasm is not just a mood in Destin.

ALMOST got a coastal shower today... watched it die off as it came on shore... hundreds of feet from my house.

Grrrrrr.

At least there is a chaser on chaserTV in Florida now... gives me something to watch from work.
Came up with a sarcasm flag for another place I post. Ya got to watch out for the Humor Impaired. goes like this

!~"
Quoting Bitmap7:


Would not be surprised to see a 60mph TS tommorrow imo.

Sure is looking good. Starting to get the buzz saw look
Does the GFS detect anything beyond 200hrs for our basin?
Quoting HurricaneKing:


I never understand why that always shows more moisture than the water vapor loops. Because using water vapor imagry you see dry to the north with the outflow fanning out over it and some dry air to the south. If it stays smaller which it looks like its going to do now that its finally tightening up then its moisture envelope should hold.


Link
Water Vapor imagery only looks at the upper levels of the atmosphere. The total precipitable water product looks at the total amount of water in the entire column of air. That would explain the difference
Quoting KoritheMan:
Just finished compilation of a blog on 94L and TD One-E/Adrian. I'm glad to finally bid adieu to frustrating 94L. :P


Tell me about it. That was the worst tropical disturbance ever! When I got frustrated and left it, it started to rain in cayman because of it. I was watching E3 live on cable when this happened, and my TV said complete signal loss. Know why? Severe rain from 94l -_-.
Quoting Bitmap7:
Does the GFS detect anything beyond 200hrs for our basin?


Nope.

It's going to be quiet for at least 10-15 days.

Only June though...
Does it work like a tag Shen?

!~" BUST !~"

Or is it just like an asterisk in a used car ad?

This season is a bust... no chance of tropical development. !~"
relative to yesterday, the blog sure is quiet tonight
Quoting Bitmap7:
Does the GFS detect anything beyond 200hrs for our basin?


18z GFS shows a large tropical disturbance hitting south Texas by days 13/14, but little else.
Quoting Bitmap7:


Tell me about it. That was the worst tropical disturbance ever! When I got frustrated and left it, it started to rain in cayman because of it. I was watching E3 live on cable when this happened, and my TV said complete signal loss. Know why? Severe rain from 94l -_-.


I thought E3 was only watchable online? Guess I was wrong.
Quoting KoritheMan:


18z GFS shows a large tropical disturbance hitting south Texas by days 13/14, but little else.
that's a long ways out, but if it plays out, that would be great news for the ongoing drought
Quoting Bitmap7:
CIMSS shows it has alot of SAL to deal with.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/splitW. jpg
Most likely, that is not the Saharan Air Layer.

Here's a quote from the CIMSS website regarding their SAL product Link:

Dry air and suspended aerosols (e.g. mineral dust) both contribute to a positive "SAL" signal in this imagery, but the relative contribution of each cannot be determined from this imagery alone.


and

Polar air originating from the mid-latitudes produces a positive signal in this imagery that is similar to that of the SAL. This is because both air masses contain substantial dry air in the lower to middle troposphere. The JAVA movie is a useful tool for determining which type of air mass is being indicated in the imagery.
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Came up with a sarcasm flag for another place I post. Ya got to watch out for the Humor Impaired. goes like this

!~"



Yep, it works.


Quoting TomTaylor:
that's a long ways out, but if it plays out, that would be great news for the ongoing drought


I only stated that because Bitmap asked. I personally do not lend any credence to any model solution beyond 10 days out.
Really hope we can get some rain down here...

Quoting FLdewey:
Does it work like a tag Shen?

!~" BUST !~"

Or is it just like an asterisk in a used car ad?

This season is a bust... no chance of tropical development. !~"


Of course the seasons a BUST, this is wunderground in June, LOL...
Quoting j2008:
Do you all think were going to get a string of Cape Verde Storms this year like we had last year?
We should see at least a few Cape Verde storms this year, but it probably won't be as active as it was last year.

Several people have already mentioned this, but it will be a neutral year (regarding the ENSO), which typically means less heat over the Eastern Atlantic than there is during La Nina years (like last year).

This is clearly visible on the SST maps

2011 SST anomalies


2010 SST anomalies


So, relative to last year, we will likely have a slower Cape Verde season with less storms forming in the East or Mid Atlantic like they did last year.

However, it is also important to note that SSTs are still above average off of Africa and all of the mid Atlantic. Which means emerging waves will have more energy to work with, making development easier. And additionally, waters off the Gulf of Guinea are much cooler than normal. This means there will be a greater temperature difference between the Saharan desert and the Atlantic ocean to the south. This will create stronger pressure gradients, and as a result of the stronger pressure gradients, a stronger African Easterly Jet. This means stronger Tropical Waves coming off Africa, and the ITCZ should be further north than normal which generally means less dust or Saharan Air Layer over the Atlantic.

Looking at the models, the long range seasonal forecast weather models also seem to support this idea. The ECMWF is calling for below average surface pressures and above average rainfall over Western Africa and the Cape Verde region (as well as the Caribbean, mid Atlantic, and Gulf of Mexico) throughout the entire hurricane season. The UKMET model is calling for drier conditions over the Cape Verde region (but wetter than average conditions across the rest of the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico), meaning a slower Cape Verde season. I wouldn't put to much trust in the UKMET forecast, as it predicted a drier than average Cape Verde season last year in the May 2010 forecast, and look how far off it was. Finally, the third seasonal forecasting model, the CFS, is calling for about average rain over Western Africa and the Cape Verde region (but above average rain through out the Caribbean, mid Atlantic, and Gulf of Mexico).


As a result, I would expect a weaker Cape Verde season than last year, but probably a more active than average Cape Verde year...most likely not as weak as most people would expect in a neutral year.
Quoting FLdewey:
Does it work like a tag Shen?

!~" BUST !~"

Or is it just like an asterisk in a used car ad?

This season is a bust... no chance of tropical development. !~"
You the master. I was just musing. Proly something better to be had. Just sayin. Like the flashing deal. Howja do dat?
The fire in west Miami-Dade is still growing and is only 10% contained. 7400 acres has burned so far. It even shows up on radar. I'm used to seeing smoke on radar, but this actually looks like the flames showing up.

S. Florida radar
The cooling in the Gulf of Guinea is quite interesting. That's probably why the ECMWF is starting to point out a more active CV season than its earlier forecasts. 
Quoting KoritheMan:


I only stated that because Bitmap asked. I personally do not lend any credence to any model solution beyond 10 days out.
can't blame you
Quoting KoritheMan:

18z GFS shows a large tropical disturbance hitting south Texas by days 13/14, but little else.


First time through I read that as "days 1,314". Seems realistic.
Quoting RickWPB:
The fire in west Miami-Dade is still growing and is only 10% contained. 7400 acres has burned so far. It even shows up on radar. I'm used to seeing smoke on radar, but this actually looks like the flames showing up.

S. Florida radar


Wicked.
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
You the master. I was just musing. Proly something better to be had. Just sayin. Like the flashing deal. Howja do dat?


Here's something interesting. I normally use Chrome and couldn't see it flashing.
Opened it in Firefox and I could see it flashing.
hmmmmmm
Well, my asthma is going to have lots of fun tomorrow here on the east coast! Wish me luck!
Quoting shoreacres:
Quoting KoritheMan:

18z GFS shows a large tropical disturbance hitting south Texas by days 13/14, but little else.


First time through I read that as "days 1,314". Seems realistic.


Pragmatically, there is negligible difference. ;)
Quoting klaatuborada:
Well, my asthma is going to have lots of fun tomorrow here on the east coast! Wish me luck!


May the Force be with you.
Quoting RickWPB:
The fire in west Miami-Dade is still growing and is only 10% contained. 7400 acres has burned so far. It even shows up on radar. I'm used to seeing smoke on radar, but this actually looks like the flames showing up.

S. Florida radar

That must be a sizable fire to show up like that on RADAR
water get warm fast!!
saw this on The Scientist site

A 2008 paper that criticized scientific support for global warming has been retracted, according to ScienceInsider. The study, published in Computational Statistics and Data Analysis and based on a controversial 2006 report on global warming commissioned by the US Congress, concluded that climate scientists favorably publish one another’s work because of too-close collaboration and questioned whether global warming was real, notes USA Today. The paper has been retracted because of plagiarism — excerpts from Wikipedia and two textbooks appeared without citation in the paper’s introduction, according to the retraction notice.
Link
I
Quoting AussieStorm:

That must be a sizable fire to show up like that on RADAR


It is a big fire because from my backyard here in the area of Tamiami Airport,Kendall, you can clearly see the red smoke looking to the NW.
Quoting Pipejazz:
saw this on The Scientist site

A 2008 paper that criticized scientific support for global warming has been retracted, according to ScienceInsider. The study, published in Computational Statistics and Data Analysis and based on a controversial 2006 report on global warming commissioned by the US Congress, concluded that climate scientists favorably publish one another’s work because of too-close collaboration and questioned whether global warming was real, notes USA Today. The paper has been retracted because of plagiarism — excerpts from Wikipedia and two textbooks appeared without citation in the paper’s introduction, according to the retraction notice.
Link
This is a tropics blog, if you'd like to discuss Global Warming or Climate Change, there are many eager debaters right here
Good Evening.

Haven't checked in all day, we lost internet during the afternoon downpour. First time we've had lightening with this system. It continues to rain (I'm in Norbrook/St. Andrew/Jamaica) but not heavily right now. The ground is very saturated so any more rain will be a problem soon. More and more damage reports seem to come in with each passing newscast.

Hope the shear picks up to blow this system away. Getting tired of the rain. The water authorities say both catchment areas are at 100%.

Wish I could send some of the rain for you guys up north. It seems to be a season of extremes.

Have a good night.
T.C.F.W.
01E/TS/A/CX
MARK
11.85N/100.55W
677. j2008
How powerful do you think Adrian will get?

A. Strong TS
B. Cat. 1 Hurricane
C. Cat. 2 Hurricane
D. Cat. 3 Hurricane or Higher
EP012011 - Tropical Storm ADRIAN

They refer as TS Adrian

Link
SST Anomalies for the last 10 weeks (2 week intervals)



Summary of SST trends:

Gulf of Mexico: Began warm, cooled, ended warm again
Caribbean: Progressively warmed
Mid Atlantic: Slightly warmed
Off of West Africa: Little to no change
Gulf of Guinea: Significantly cooled
Nino 1 2: Slightly warmed
Nino 3, 3.4, 4: Slightly warmed
Northern East Pacific: Warmed
Quoting j2008:
How powerful do you think Adrian will get?

A. Strong TS
B. Cat. 1 Hurricane
C. Cat. 2 Hurricane
D. Cat. 3 Hurricane or Higher


C/D
www.solarham.com

M2.5 Flare - Just when things were very quiet, a M2.5 Solar Flare took place at 06:41 UTC Tuesday around Sunspot 1226 located in the southern hemisphere. A CME was also associated with this event. Click on this LINK to view a movie of the Coronal Mass Ejection. It does not appear to be fully earth directed, however a portion of it could cause some geomagnetic activity should it sweep past earth.

there is a med risk that 01E TS Adrian will be a hurricane within the next 12 hrs
Quoting j2008:
How powerful do you think Adrian will get?

A. Strong TS
B. Cat. 1 Hurricane
C. Cat. 2 Hurricane
D. Cat. 3 Hurricane or Higher

Typically the 1st Hurricane in the EPAC gets to Cat 1/2. so I am saying B/C
What do y'all think of storm plus. My sons mom n law was telling me today she gets info from there
Quoting sunlinepr:


672.
That's a really neat WVL. Shows the flow well. Thank you!

j2008,
Cat 1.5

See you all later.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

What dat?
Quoting j2008:
How powerful do you think Adrian will get?

A. Strong TS
B. Cat. 1 Hurricane
C. Cat. 2 Hurricane
D. Cat. 3 Hurricane or Higher


Forecast Track
Time of Latest Forecast: 201106071800
Forecast Hour Latitude Longitude Intensity
0 11.5 259.9 30
12 12.2 259.6 40
24 12.8 259.3 50
36 13.6 258.5 60
48 14.5 257.6 70
72 15.2 255.6 80
96 16 254 85 CAT 1
120 17 252 75

Tropical Storm Adrian
Wind: 45 MPH — Location: 11.8N 100.6W — Movement: WNW
Quoting AussieStorm:

What dat?

dat de Sun, showin' where de sun-flares be.
Well it's official. We now welcome Adrian!!!
Flood-ravaged Grantham moves to higher ground


Five months after deadly flash floods ripped through Queensland's Lockyer Valley, construction has begun on an ambitious program to move a town to higher ground.

Grantham became a focal point during the flood after images of the wild water that swept homes and lives to ruin were broadcast across the country.

Local resident Jim Wilkin literally had to run for his life as the floods, which killed 19 people, raced through the town.

"I had my two little nieces, one under each arm and was running as fast as I could," he said.

"We got onto the railway line and we had to run to the school which is a kilometre away and as we were doing that the water was going over the railway line behind us and more or less chasing us."

After the floods, many in the town struggled with the decision of whether to rebuild or just pack up and leave.

The council came up with a third option, creating a new 485-hectare estate on a hill overlooking Grantham and promising a novel land-swap deal which has been taken up by 60 people.

Mayor Steve Jones says it is open to people across the Lockyer Valley and they can just swap their land, even if it is worth less than the block they receive, which will be decided by ballot.

"In stage one we would expect no more than 80 would be in a position to move and there's more than 60 of those have already moved forward to do it," he said.

"So we've had a very positive response. It is completely voluntary and I think that's the thing that's so important about this first scheme of this type.

"I think other areas can learn in the future but if you induce people rather than force them you can end up with some really positive outcomes and make people safer and happier in the long term."

The first families are expected to be in their new homes by Christmas. Mr Wilkin says he jumped at the offer.

"I wouldn't be able to stay where we were down there at night time, especially when it's storming, thinking that you know the same thing was going to happen again," he said.

"So up here, on the hill, I know I'm safe, no water can reach us up here."

Queensland Deputy Premier Paul Lucas says the State Government has helped in the project by allowing the council to bypass the normal development approval process.

"Normally if you did this from scratch it would two to three years at least to do it and even then it would have to be a new urban footprint," he said.

"So this has taken less than six months in terms of planning what would normally take years. But the land swap of the Council is a great idea and it's a model for many other communities in the future."

Brisbane City Council has taken a different approach, purchasing flooded homes outright. Only yesterday the new Lord Mayor, Graham Quirk, doubled the buyback fund to $10 million.

It is just one of the many financial strains the summer of natural disasters is having on local government.

Mr Quirk hands down his first budget tomorrow, describing it as one of the most difficult to frame in decades but promising to keep rate rises to inflation.

Queensland Premier Anna Bligh hands down her budget next week.


- ABC
Drought turns to dangerous flooding in China


A severe drought is finally breaking in parts of southern China, but some hard-hit areas are now being flooded.

Southern China's Yangtze River basin has been suffering a major dry spell which, in some places, has been the worst in more than five decades.

Yet many parched farms are now receiving extensive rainfall - so much that dangerous flooding has occurred.

According to the People's Daily, fresh rain has reduced the drought-affected area by 39 per cent.

It was especially good news in Hubei's and Hunan's rice bowl areas, but Jiangsu province, on the east coast, has received little extra rain and remains in the middle of a serious drought.


- ABC
Quoting AussieStorm:

What dat?
big yellow globe thats our sun and the positions numbers and type of solar flares
Adrian is one healthy looking storm:



I wonder if that dry spot in the center isn't the start of a banding eye?
Quoting hurricaneben:
Well it's official. We now welcome Adrian!!!


Official...

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 080246
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
800 PM PDT TUE JUN 07 2011

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT BANDING NEAR THE CENTER HAS BECOME
MORE CONCENTRATED...WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL ROTATION NOTED. DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS WERE 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AT 0000 UTC.
SINCE THAT TIME...INCREASED ORGANIZATION HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN
MICROWAVE DATA...WITH EVIDENCE OF AN INNER-CORE STRUCTURE ON 0104
UTC SSMI/S IMAGES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 40
KT...MAKING THIS THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
SEASON.

ADRIAN HAS NOT BEEN MOVING VERY MUCH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH A LONGER-TERM MOTION OF ABOUT 300/3. THE CYCLONE IS
CAUGHT IN AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A TRACK
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST SHOULD OCCUR FOR THE NEXT
DAY OR SO UNTIL RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD OVER MEXICO. THIS CHANGE IN
STEERING SHOULD RESULT IN ADRIAN TURNING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THERE REMAINS A FAIR BIT OF
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS THE HWRF/GFDL SHOW THE CYCLONE MOVING
MORE TOWARD THE NORTH CLOSER TO MEXICO BEFORE MAKING THAT
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN. GIVEN THE HISTORICAL BIASES OF THOSE
MODELS...THE NHC FORECAST WILL STAY ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE GFS/GEFS/ECMWF/UKMET
MODELS.

THERE IS VERY LITTLE WIND SHEAR NEAR ADRIAN WITH WARM SSTS NEAR 30C
ALONG ITS PATH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS RIPE
FOR INTENSIFICATION...PERHAPS EVEN OF THE RAPID VARIETY. INDEED THE
SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION GUIDANCE INDICATES A 59 PERCENT CHANCE
OF A 30 KT INCREASE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MOST NEGATIVE FACTOR
AGAINST THIS OCCURRING IS AN AREA OF DRY AIR TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...THAT DRY AIR WOULD TAKE SOME TIME
PENETRATING THE CORE REGIONS...ESPECIALLY WITHOUT ANY SHEARING
MECHANISM TO ACCELERATE THAT PROCESS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
RAISED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWING CONSIDERABLE
INTENSIFICATION...AND IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...ADRIAN SHOULD BE OVER
COOLER WATERS AND EMBEDDED WITHIN A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT...
RESULTING IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING BEYOND THIS TIME.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 11.8N 100.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 12.2N 100.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 13.0N 101.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 13.9N 102.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 14.5N 103.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 15.5N 105.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 16.0N 107.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 17.0N 109.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
Perfect S shape in WV image
More good news:

Japan raises spectre of Fukushima 'melt-through'

For the first time, Japanese authorities have suggested the situation at the Fukushima nuclear plant may have gone beyond a meltdown.

An official report, which Japan will submit to the UN's nuclear watchdog, says nuclear fuel in three reactors at Fukushima has possibly melted through the pressure vessels and accumulated in outer containment vessels.

Japan's Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper says this "melt-through" is far worse than a core meltdown, and is the worst possibility in a nuclear accident.

This is the first official admission that a "melt-through" may have occurred.

In the report, Japan also admits it was unprepared for the scale of the Fukushima disaster, which struck after a devastating earthquake and tsunami in March.

The report also acknowledges there was insufficient communication between the government and the plant's operator.

ABC News (Australia) Article...
Quoting KoritheMan:
THIS ENVIRONMENT IS RIPE
FOR INTENSIFICATION...PERHAPS EVEN OF THE RAPID VARIETY.


I like the way that's worded. ;-)
Kinda fiqured dat when the Roofs Blew off from the Hydrogen Gas KABOOM's and the er,,situation was said, to be contained was announced.
I think Adrian will hit cat 3, in the E-pac its a lot easier for early season storms to reach major hurricane status, and conditions are good for the next few days, they're prediction takes it to Cat 2 but I think the prediction shows Adrian as a Cat 1 for too long.
Bonus Nocturnal action tonight


Boomers outside..


Quoting all4hurricanes:
I think Adrian will hit cat 3, in the E-pac its a lot easier for early season storms to reach major hurricane status, and conditions are good for the next few days, they're prediction takes it to Cat 2 but I think the prediction shows Adrian as a Cat 1 for too long.


Satellite imagery shows the beginnings of an inner core. Quicker intensification than forecast is definitely a possibility.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
big yellow globe thats our sun and the positions numbers and type of solar flares


Been quite active~

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/warnings_timeline .html

The blast produced an M2-class solar flare, an S1-class radiation storm, and a massive CME. A recording of the blast from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory ranks as one of the most beautiful and dramatic movies of the SDO era: "spaceweather.com"

http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
Quoting Patrap:
Bonus Nocturnal action tonight


Boomers outside..




Had some rain here in Prairieville, along with some lightning, but little else. I'll get my severe thunderstorm one of these days!
709. j2008
Quoting all4hurricanes:
I think Adrian will hit cat 3, in the E-pac its a lot easier for early season storms to reach major hurricane status, and conditions are good for the next few days, they're prediction takes it to Cat 2 but I think the prediction shows Adrian as a Cat 1 for too long.

Especially if it starts into a phase of rapid intensification.
Soon maybe...Kori
Quoting TomTaylor:
This is a tropics blog, if you'd like to discuss Global Warming or Climate Change, there are many eager debaters right here

That's a bit harsh...
Global Weather and Climate Change are intrinsically linked.

And the Author of this blog has often referred to the issue raised by the person you quoted.
It may annoy a couple people, but there are times that there is a quite healthy debate on Global Warming, right here.
Quoting all4hurricanes:
I think Adrian will hit cat 3, in the E-pac its a lot easier for early season storms to reach major hurricane status, and conditions are good for the next few days, they're prediction takes it to Cat 2 but I think the prediction shows Adrian as a Cat 1 for too long.
personally, I don't like calling peak intensity, because I think its too early. I always think there isnt much forecast skill predicting peak intensity this early in the game.

Nonetheless, I think it will reach hurricane status, but from there I really don't know how much more it will intensify. Could become a major...which would be amazing considering its early June
Quoting Patrap:
Kinda fiqured dat when the Roofs Blew off from the Hydrogen Gas KABOOM's and the er,,situation was said, to be contained was announced.

I think that what is being announced now, is not too surprising to those who thought about it...
Looks like Adrian may intensify very rapidly. We might have a hurricane by late tomorrow morning/early afternoon.
The continuation of the severe drought in South Florida this far into June has probably not happened in many many years. I have never seen blank radar screens over South Florida in June for this number of days. Certanly, one must hope for some type of tropical connection to break the drought.
SPACE WEATHER BREAKING

An unusual solar flare observed by a NASA space observatory on Tuesday could cause some disruptions to satellite communications and power on Earth over the next day or so, officials said.
The potent blast from the Sun unleashed a firestorm of radiation on a level not witnessed since 2006, and will likely lead to moderate geomagnetic storm activity by Wednesday, according to the National Weather Service.
"This one was rather dramatic," said Bill Murtagh, program coordinator at the NWS's Space Weather Prediction Center, describing the M-2 (medium-sized) solar flare that peaked at 1:41 am Eastern time in the United States, or 0541 GMT.
"We saw the initial flare occurring and it wasn't that big but then the eruption associated with it -- we got energy particle radiation flowing in and we got a big coronal mass injection," he said.
"You can see all the materials blasting up from the Sun so it is quite fantastic to look at."

http://beta.news.yahoo.com/unusual-solar-storm-co uld-disrupt-earth-communications-194814480.html
Quoting Ossqss:


Been quite active~

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/warnings_timeline .html

The blast produced an M2-class solar flare, an S1-class radiation storm, and a massive CME. A recording of the blast from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory ranks as one of the most beautiful and dramatic movies of the SDO era: "spaceweather.com"

http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/

Here's a video of today's amazing solar flare captured in different temperatures. Incredible:

If Japan had land frontiers with other countries, the real magnitud of that meltdown would had been exposed long ago. The localization of the accident with the Pacific to the east, also the fact that usually winds blow East taking long time for the fallout to reach other countries, diluted, favors the coverage given... If that accident would have been in the West, the situation with China would have been really serious...
Quoting pottery:

That's a bit harsh...
Global Weather and Climate Change are intrinsically linked.

And the Author of this blog has often referred to the issue raised by the person you quoted.
It may annoy a couple people, but there are times that there is a quite healthy debate on Global Warming, right here.
yeah you're right. But during hurricane season people get very easily annoyed by the gw debate.

And quite honestly, I can't blame them. Minor comments on the topic are fine, but when we get a full scale debate on the topic it gets ugly. Name calling and countless logical fallacies dominate true gw debates. Not to mention we have a blog purposely created for such debates. For these reasons, unless Jeff specifically makes a post on the topic or it is not hurricane season, I usually dislike seeing the topic debated on this blog.

Remember though, that's just my dos centavos, feel free to tell me to shut up...I ain't the blog police
Two things: Neapolitan, please change your background. it gets too dark to read towards the end - Please.
The next is wondering about the storms that spung up over the south-central region of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana; I've heard an old-time Civil Defense director tell tales of low pressure forming over land and going back out to sea then developing into a stronger low usually bringing rain and winds to the gulf coast. I haven't found any instances of that happening but I believe this system is compact enough and strong enough to be carried back out... It's unusual for us to get storms of this strength from the east or southeast this time of year.

One of them thangs (sic) that gets my attention
When viewing those pictures of the solar flare, consider this: a full-fledged hurricane on earth would cover approximately three pixels.
Quoting portcharlotte:
The continuation of the severe drought in South Florida this far into June has probably not happened in many many years. I have never seen blank radar screens over South Florida in June for this number of days. Certanly, one must hope for some type of tropical connection to break the drought.

It's a Bad one all right.
Hope that it's not a trend.

The thing is, even if you get rainfalls in later June-july to make up the deficit, and even if this kind of drought never happens again, there are long-term after-effects with soil condition, vegetation stresses, and subtle changes to the eco-system that may not be evident for several seasons.

It's a Serious Situation.
does that mean the sun goona end?
There's a backdoor trof/vort now moving up gulf near the west side of FL..looks neat on satellite..kinda spinning up, except all my gulf only views/links aren't working. So haven't had a close look at it yet. Anybody got one that is?

Actually got a Trace of rain from it a few hours ago. Low level clouds flying in from the east. Had a tropical feel.
Quoting Hurrykane:
Trouble



Thats some quite huge and strong blobs about to exit Africa, seems a little low in terms of latitude.

Good evening. The blog is only showing 2/3 of the page on my computer. Anyone else experiencing this or is it just me? Thanks
Quoting TomTaylor:
yeah you're right. But during hurricane season people get very easily annoyed by the gw debate.

And quite honestly, I can't blame them. Minor comments on the topic are fine, but when we get a full scale debate on the topic it gets ugly. Name calling and countless logical fallacies dominate true gw debates. Not to mention we have a blog purposely created for such debates. For these reasons, unless Jeff specifically makes a post on the topic or it is not hurricane season, I usually dislike seeing the topic debated on this blog.

Remember though, that's just my dos centavos, feel free to tell me to shut up...I ain't the blog police

Yeah, I respect that.
And I agree. The debate is never a fruitful one. People tend to have strong views on both sides and it all gets too Quarrelsom.
Enough of that though. Tonight.
T.C.F.W.
01E/TS/A/CX
MARK
11.90N/101.13W
Quoting tropicfreak:


Thats some quite huge and strong blobs about to exit Africa, seems a little low in terms of latitude.


They look good, yes!
Maybe we will have something to look at tomorrow...
As they dry up LOL.
Quoting midgulfmom:
Good evening. The blog is only showing 2/3 of the page on my computer. Anyone else experiencing this or is it just me? Thanks

Fine here.
Thanks Pottery...Will look around for a "button" of some sort to try..hahaha...geesh, I hate showing my computer lameness...enjoy your commentaries. :)
Quoting RukusBoondocks:
does that mean the sun goona end?


No, but keep an eye on it~! :)

A Carrington event would not be good in today's, or tomorrows world for sure ~~~

Quoting midgulfmom:
Good evening. The blog is only showing 2/3 of the page on my computer. Anyone else experiencing this or is it just me? Thanks
all is good on my computer. are you using Internet Explorer by any chance?
Tom Taylor: YES! tried to quote you but I couldn't. What's up? Do you know? Was fiddling with some stuff but no luck.
Wild Winds: Changes in Weather Patterns Creating More Severe Storms

Tornado. A Kansas State University climate expert attributes the increase in the number and severity of tornadoes and severe storms in 2011 to a change in weather patterns. (Credit: © Chris White / Fotolia)

ScienceDaily (June 7, 2011) — A Kansas State University climate expert attributes the increase in the number and severity of tornadoes and severe storms in 2011 to a change in weather patterns.

John Harrington Jr., professor of geography, is a synoptic climatologist who examines the factors behind distinctive weather events. He credits the increased tornado production this year to jet stream patterns in the upper atmosphere. The patterns have created synoptic events such as the April tornado outbreak in Alabama and recent tornado in Joplin, Mo. While these events are not unprecedented, they are significant, he said.

"To put them in all in one year, that's what has people talking about this stuff," Harrington said. "The fact that this is happening all in one year and in a relatively short time frame is unusual."..................

Link
Max Mayfield said this will probably be the latest start to the rainy season ever in South Florida.
Link
Quoting midgulfmom:
Tom Taylor: YES! tried to quote you but I couldn't. What's up? Do you know? Was fiddling with some stuff but no luck.
I don't know what the problem is exactly, but it seems like most of the people who have trouble viewing the blog are those using Internet Explorer.

So I'd recommend using Mozilla Firefox or Google Chrome instead of Internet Explorer.

Firefox and Chrome are also faster and safer relative to Internet Explorer, from what I've heard.
T.C.F.W.
01E/TS/A/CX
MARK
11.90N/101.13W
Wll try thanks Tom. :)



possible development of an eyewall???
Quoting pottery:

It's a Bad one all right.
Hope that it's not a trend.

The thing is, even if you get rainfalls in later June-july to make up the deficit, and even if this kind of drought never happens again, there are long-term after-effects with soil condition, vegetation stresses, and subtle changes to the eco-system that may not be evident for several seasons.

It's a Serious Situation.



It is a serious situation, but keep in mind, nature is great at recovering. The biggest issue I think, is that since Florida is normally a wet climate, once we break out of this dry weather, it could bounch back to the other extreme, well above normal amounts of rain and thunderstorms leading to severe weather and flooding. It seems that the climate everywhere is wacked, you are often either in a serious drought, or way too much rain...
Quoting midgulfmom:
Wll try thanks Tom. :)
np, good luck
Thanks Pat I see it's working now..see what I's saying. Look at that spining up the west side of FL.

Recon is out there right now, AF306. They flew out there early afternoon. Found a little shear around 700mb. Flew back then flew out there again with a takeoff time around 2300Z. Shear has dropped considerably.
Sumthings up skye,,as they switching the beam down a tad.


And there be a spin,ahoy...

Quoting Skyepony:
Thanks Pat I see it's working now..see what I's saying. Look at that spining up the west side of FL.

Recon is out there right now, AF306. They flew out there early afternoon. Found a little shear around 700mb. Flew back then flew out there again with a takeoff time around 2300Z. Shear has dropped considerably.


Its an upper low developing with cold air aloft. The problem is we still have dry mid level air over Florida. But if we can get that deep tropical moisture to surge north, that combined with the upper low will lead to very strong thunderstorms and typical summertime torrential rains.
Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 00:56Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Mission: Non-Tasked Mission, possibly not tropical (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Identifier: 110607230851306 (2 digit year/2 digit month/2 digit day/6 digit mission start time/Last 3 digits of aircraft tail number)
Date Mission Started: June 7th in '11
Time Mission Started: 23:08:51Z
Observation Number: 04

Part A...

Date: Near the closest hour of 1Z on the 8th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 400mb
Coordinates: 28.3N 86.8W (View map)
Location: 147 miles (236 km) to the SSW (208°) from Panama City, FL, USA.
Marsden Square: 081 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1011mb (29.85 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 28.2°C (82.8°F) 23.5°C (74.3°F) 110° (from the ESE) 10 knots (12 mph)
1000mb 100m (328 ft) 27.4°C (81.3°F) 23.4°C (74.1°F) 110° (from the ESE) 9 knots (10 mph)
925mb 786m (2,579 ft) 23.2°C (73.8°F) Approximately 14°C (57°F) 85° (from the E) 6 knots (7 mph)
850mb 1,518m (4,980 ft) 18.0°C (64.4°F) Approximately 12°C (54°F) 105° (from the ESE) 14 knots (16 mph)
700mb 3,152m (10,341 ft) 8.2°C (46.8°F) Approximately 0°C (32°F) 110° (from the ESE) 10 knots (12 mph)
500mb 5,840m (19,160 ft) -9.5°C (14.9°F) Approximately -22°C (-8°F) 120° (from the ESE) 7 knots (8 mph)
400mb 7,520m (24,672 ft) -20.5°C (-4.9°F) -25.4°C (-13.7°F) 145° (from the SE) 18 knots (21 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 0:31Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.


Well I suppose they maybe home by now..
i don't want to scare anyone but 01E TS Adrian may become more than a 3
Quoting Jedkins01:



It is a serious situation, but keep in mind, nature is great at recovering. The biggest issue I think, is that since Florida is normally a wet climate, once we break out of this dry weather, it could bounch back to the other extreme, well above normal amounts of rain and thunderstorms leading to severe weather and flooding. It seems that the climate everywhere is wacked, you are often either in a serious drought, or way too much rain...

That is generally true.
But 'nature' is getting stressed as well, as there are fewer and fewer pockets of it left in it's original state.
Fire and flood are not new things as we know, but in the past when an eco-system was damaged there was a lot of similiar eco-system around to help in re-establishing it.
Now, this is not so true.

It takes longer for things to return to 'normal' and especially when the area has been changed through species introduction (farm land, orchards etc) and where land has been altered through drainage, forrest removal and so on.

I hear what your'e saying, but think about the Linkages.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i don't want to scare anyone but 01E TS Adrian may become more than a 3


it may be a 2-3 by tomorrow morning (pacific)
Quoting pottery:

That is generallyb true.
But 'nature' is getting stressed as well, as there are fewer and fewer pockets of it left in it's original state.
Fire and flood are not new things as we know, but in the past when an eco-system was damaged there was a lot of similiar eco-system around to help in re-establishing it.
Now, this is not so true.

It takes longer for things to return to 'normal' and especially when the area has been changed through species introduction (farm land, orchards etc) and where land has been altered through drainage, forrest removal and so on.

I hear what your'e saying, but think about the Linkages.



Hmmm those are good points too, I see what you mean, all the more reasons its time for the climate to switch back to Florida.
Quoting Skyepony:
Thanks Pat I see it's working now..see what I's saying. Look at that spining up the west side of FL.

Recon is out there right now, AF306. They flew out there early afternoon. Found a little shear around 700mb. Flew back then flew out there again with a takeoff time around 2300Z. Shear has dropped considerably.


Its an upper low developing with cold air aloft. The problem is we still have dry mid level air over Florida. But if we can get that deep tropical moisture to surge north, that combined with the upper low will lead to very strong thunderstorms and typical summertime torrential rains.
Quoting Jedkins01:



Hmmm those are good points too, I see what you mean, all the more reasons its time for the climate to switch back to Florida.

True1 !
Quoting Skyepony:
There's a backdoor trof/vort now moving up gulf near the west side of FL..looks neat on satellite..kinda spinning up, except all my gulf only views/links aren't working. So haven't had a close look at it yet. Anybody got one that is?

Actually got a Trace of rain from it a few hours ago. Low level clouds flying in from the east. Had a tropical feel.
I see it on the NHC site on the rgb loop. There is a spin going on at some level in the outer Matagorda Bay area. Interesting.
Get that sucker to spin up this way some! All of the afternoon showers that have popped up around Mobile the past few days are missing me - lol..still down 13 inches of so and praying that we don't get it all at once!..lol
Pottery 755.
Very good points; thank you for bringing this up.
Quoting Neapolitan:
More good news:

Japan raises spectre of Fukushima 'melt-through'

For the first time, Japanese authorities have suggested the situation at the Fukushima nuclear plant may have gone beyond a meltdown.

An official report, which Japan will submit to the UN's nuclear watchdog, says nuclear fuel in three reactors at Fukushima has possibly melted through the pressure vessels and accumulated in outer containment vessels.

Japan's Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper says this "melt-through" is far worse than a core meltdown, and is the worst possibility in a nuclear accident.

This is the first official admission that a "melt-through" may have occurred.

In the report, Japan also admits it was unprepared for the scale of the Fukushima disaster, which struck after a devastating earthquake and tsunami in March.

The report also acknowledges there was insufficient communication between the government and the plant's operator.

ABC News (Australia) Article...
I've always been a big proponent of nuclear energy. I don't know now. I don't know.
Quoting FrankZapper:
I've always been a big proponent of nuclear energy. I don't know now. I don't know.
Heard on the radio that Germany, a formerly big proponent of Nuclear energy, now will give it up totally and rely on more environmentally friendly sources even if it means higher costs and occasional black outs.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Its an upper low developing with cold air aloft. The problem is we still have dry mid level air over Florida. But if we can get that deep tropical moisture to surge north, that combined with the upper low will lead to very strong thunderstorms and typical summertime torrential rains.


I've seen NWS MLB call it both a backdoor trof/vort & a shortwave trough. I got a sprinkle off it..the clouds flying toward it included plenty of lower level clouds. GFS does keep it more a midlevel event, impeded by land. Not sure if I buy that except for the impeded by land part look plausible. It certainly has alot of dry air to deal with.
Is there a shimmer of hope for 94L down the road. I believe some were talking about a brief opportunity in the GOM. Short excerpt from the Miami NWS.

THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE A
LITTLE INCONSISTENT IN WHEN THE IN-FLUX OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE REGION...WITH THE 12Z
GUIDANCE SLOWING THAT SCENARIO DOWN...INDICATING THAT THE DEEPER
LAYERED MOISTURE MAY NOT APPROACH THE REGION UNTIL THURSDAY. THE
GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...MORE OR LESS IN TANDEM WITH THE
BROAD SURFACE LOW. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FORECAST TO BE IN A FAVORABLE POSITION TO ENHANCE CHANCES OF
CONVECTION...THERE IS AN INCREASING TREND IN THE POP FORECAST
THROUGH FRIDAY.
Quoting midgulfmom:
Heard on the radio that Germany, a formerly big proponent of Nuclear energy, now will give it up totally and rely on more environmentally friendly sources even if it means higher costs and occasional black outs.
glad to hear that
Quoting oldnewmex:
Pottery 755.
Very good points; thank you for bringing this up.

No Probs. Your'e welcome!
Quoting TomTaylor:
glad to hear that
Me too. Heard it on NPR and they now believe it's too risky. There are berries,etc. in some areas of Germany that are still inedible due to Chernobyl (sorry for spelling of that) and will be for a very very long time.
Quoting midgulfmom:
Heard on the radio that Germany, a formerly big proponent of Nuclear energy, now will give it up totally and rely on more environmentally friendly sources even if it means higher costs and occasional black outs.
I wonder if France is reevaluating it's position?

I always thought that when you shut down a nuclear plant's reactor the danger was over. No one ever said it took months to cool down using a constant supply of water. Even the movie "The China Syndrome" never brought that up. And it was definitely antinuclear.
Quoting FrankZapper:
I wonder if France is reevaluating it's position?

I always thought that when you shut down a nuclear plant's reactor the danger was over. No one ever said it took months to cool down using a constant supply of water. Even the movie "The China Syndrome" never brought that up. And it was definitely antinuclear.
Don't know but Japan has given many a whole new perspective on the industry. With good reason...
More heavy rains heading into Haiti now, as the death toll from flooding and mudslides yesterday is 23 confirmed with several missing...

Dread...
Quoting midgulfmom:
Don't know but Japan has given many a whole new perspective on the industry. With good reason...
By the way, Germany did say they hoped other European countries would follow.
Quoting FrankZapper:
I've always been a big proponent of nuclear energy. I don't know now. I don't know.


+
Quoting midgulfmom:
Don't know but Japan has given many a whole new perspective on the industry. With good reason...
Yep
Quoting FrankZapper:
I wonder if France is reevaluating it's position?

I always thought that when you shut down a nuclear plant's reactor the danger was over. No one ever said it took months to cool down using a constant supply of water. Even the movie "The China Syndrome" never brought that up. And it was definitely antinuclear.

I think that you can shut down a reactor anytime, but it has to be a controlled sequence of events.
What happened in Japan was the cooling system failed, and things went downhill from there. Temps became too high to control, and stuff started melting.
Quoting pottery:
More heavy rains heading into Haiti now, as the death toll from flooding and mudslides yesterday is 23 confirmed with several missing...

Dread...
It's down right awful how much they have had to endure. Just awful..don't know what else to say except I hope and pray things get better for them in a hurry.
Quoting FrankZapper:
I wonder if France is reevaluating it's position?

I always thought that when you shut down a nuclear plant's reactor the danger was over. No one ever said it took months to cool down using a constant supply of water. Even the movie "The China Syndrome" never brought that up. And it was definitely antinuclear.
nuclear waste is forever man.

Ok not really. But even if a reactor goes its whole life with no problems, you still have to store the fuel rods for thousands of years. Nuclear energy is nasty stuff. It has the potential to devastate entire regions of our earth for over a century.

That's why I don't support it. Granite with strict regulations it is "safer", but the disaster potential is never gone, it's always there.
A low air pressure in Arabian Sea is likely to form a tropical cyclone 600km off Karachi coast on Tuesday. The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) says that the low air pressure is forming a tropical cyclone in the eastern Arabian Sea. According to the PMD, the temperatures would rise in Sindh and Punjab following a change in wind pattern due to the low air pressure in eastern Arabian Sea. A rain spell is also expected in coastal areas of Balochistan and Sindh. The PMD says that the weather conditions are indicating a hurricane and its tropical cyclone warning centre is observing the sea pattern.
Quoting midgulfmom:
By the way, Germany did say they hoped other European countries would follow.

Electricity in the near future will be THE commodity...
Anyone has a sat image of the lightening going off in adrian?
Quoting pottery:

I think that you can shut down a reactor anytime, but it has to be a controlled sequence of events.
What happened in Japan was the cooling system failed, and things went downhill from there. Temps became too high to control, and stuff started melting.
I heard it will keep melting down and down until it's stopped with heat proof concrete. The Russians managed to get under Chernobyl and stop the meltdown. Last I heard, no such luck in Japan and could get into the water table/system. Anyone know differently? Hope so.
Quoting midgulfmom:
It's down right awful how much they have had to endure. Just awful..don't know what else to say except I hope and pray things get better for them in a hurry.

I agree with that.
It really seems like "we" are completely impotent there.
The UN and just about everyone else has been in there for decades spending billions every year, and NO CHANGE ??
Granted, Hurricanes and Earthquakes dont help, but really....

I think "we" are still raping Haiti...
Where does the funding actually end up?
Quoting pottery:

I think that you can shut down a reactor anytime, but it has to be a controlled sequence of events.
What happened in Japan was the cooling system failed, and things went downhill from there. Temps became too high to control, and stuff started melting.
To my understanding they achieved successful shutdowns of the 4 operating reactors after the quake, but then needed the diesel generators to power the cooling pumps for several weeks until the nuclear reactions and therefore heat petered out. That was my impression, but I ain't no Oppenheimer either.
Quoting pottery:

I agree with that.
It really seems like "we" are completely impotent there.
The UN and just about everyone else has been in there for decades spending billions every year, and NO CHANGE ??
Granted, Hurricanes and Earthquakes dont help, but really....

I think "we" are still raping Haiti...
Where does the funding actually end up?
IKR..where does the money go? I hope the right people are asking that. What a frustrating situation. What's going on? Somethings definitely not right.
Quoting midgulfmom:
I heard it will keep melting down and down until it's stopped with heat proof concrete. The Russians managed to get under Chernobyl and stop the meltdown. Last I heard, no such luck in Japan and could get into the water table/system. Anyone know differently? Hope so.

It's a very different situation, Russia and Japan reactor problems.
In Russia, the radioactive materials were ejected into the air.
In Japan, they are still sort of contained in (leaking) pools underground.
The stuff in Japan is making its way into the ground, groundwater and maybe the sea. (Probably).
A small amount of the Radioactive material was ejected into the air in Japan.

In Russia, they could place concrete on top of the thing, but in Japan, they cannot get to it...
Quoting TomTaylor:
nuclear waste is forever man.

Ok not really. But even if a reactor goes its whole life with no problems, you still have to store the fuel rods for thousands of years. Nuclear energy is nasty stuff. It has the potential to devastate entire regions of our earth for over a century.

That's why I don't support it. Granite with strict regulations it is "safer", but the disaster potential is never gone, it's always there.
For better or worse, this has set back the reemerging nuclear industry another 10-20 years.
Seasoned bloggers please help...what is the spin in the northern GOM and is it anything worth watching? TIA
Quoting midgulfmom:
IKR..where does the money go? I hope the right people are asking that. What a frustrating situation. What's going on? Somethings definitely not right.


Dont get me started on THAT one...
You wouldn't believe the stuff going on there, in the name of Helping the Poor Haitians....
Quoting pottery:

It's a very different situation, Russia and Japan reactor problems.
In Russia, the radioactive materials were ejected into the air.
In Japan, they are still sort of contained in (leaking) pools underground.
The stuff in Japan is making its way into the ground, groundwater and maybe the sea. (Probably).
A small amount of the Radioactive material was ejected into the air in Japan.

In Russia, they could place concrete on top of the thing, but in Japan, they cannot get to it...
I see. Heard a scientist on, again, NPR, explain it that way but I'm going from my middle aged memory (LOL). I think he did say that the meltdown would continue in Japan until they get under it or it looks much worse than most imagine. Sounds dreadfully dire. :(
Quoting druseljic:
Seasoned bloggers please help...what is the spin in the northern GOM and is it anything worth watching? TIA
The local weatherman (Bob Breck) said it was an ULL and not a problem.
Quoting midgulfmom:
I see. Heard a scientist on, again, NPR, explain it that way but I'm going from my middle aged memory (LOL). I think he did say that the meltdown would continue in Japan until they get under it or it looks much worse than most imagine. Sounds dreadfully dire. :(
In Japan they call this melting down "The American Syndrome". :)
Quoting FrankZapper:
The local weatherman (Bob Breck) said it was an ULL and not a problem.


Thanks Frank!
Quoting FrankZapper:
For better or worse, this has set back the reemerging nuclear industry another 10-20 years.
Yes it has. Not the best time to be a nuclear company lol
Quoting FrankZapper:
To my understanding they achieved successful shutdowns of the 4 operating reactors after the quake, but then needed the diesel generators to power the cooling pumps for several weeks until the nuclear reactions and therefore heat petered out. That was my impression, but I ain't no Oppenheimer either.

It's more complex than that, too.
Nuclear reaction is dependent upon the reaction of things one to another.
If you get the Physics right, you have a Nuclear Explosion.
Nuclear plants do this, but in a controlled way. Its a balancing act. The "explosion" is ongoing and is controlled and results in heat which generates steam to run turbines to turn generators.
When you have an earthquake, a tsunami, and a fire, you lose control.

I dont know if they shut down the reactors in a controlled way, or if they shut down because they could not control them.

They were pumping water onto the cores to cool them, because they were overheating. They had no control.
T.C.F.W.
01E/TS/A/CX
MARK
11.90N/101.13W
Quoting FrankZapper:
In Japan they call this melting down "The American Syndrome". :)
LOL China will like that. BTW Bob Breck is pretty good. He puts his own analysis on the weather, even if he's kinda goofy sometimes.
Quoting FrankZapper:
The local weatherman (Bob Breck) said it was an ULL and not a problem.
yep hes right
Quoting midgulfmom:
I see. Heard a scientist on, again, NPR, explain it that way but I'm going from my middle aged memory (LOL). I think he did say that the meltdown would continue in Japan until they get under it or it looks much worse than most imagine. Sounds dreadfully dire. :(

Several Retired workers, in their 70's and older, have volunteered to go in and try to get the thing stabilized.
They know they will die from the Radiation, but they say "So? We will die anyway, soon"

I Salute them.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
T.C.F.W.
01E/TS/A/CX
MARK
11.90N/101.13W
Adrian showing 94L how it's done
It's late....

I'm gone>>>>>>

Stay Safe, all.
Quoting pottery:

Several Retired workers, in their 70's and older, have volunteered to go in and try to get the thing stabilized.
They know they will die from the Radiation, but they say "So? We will die anyway, soon"

I Salute them.
Indeed..so selfless, inspiring, and touching! I Salute them as well!
Pottery, Good night and sleep well. Enjoyed the conversation!
Quoting Bitmap7:
Anyone has a sat image of the lightening going off in adrian?


I don't have any close up views over the storm, but here are 3 links to global views which give you a sense of the activity in the storm

Link 1
Link 2
Link 3

from the links it doesn't look like there is much lighting activity with the storm at the moment
Quoting midgulfmom:
LOL China will like that. BTW Bob Breck is pretty good. He puts his own analysis on the weather, even if he's kinda goofy sometimes.
I agree. He has taken a licking on the Blog recently for some remarks he made on his Blog .
Good nite to all. Enjoyed the banter. See ya on the flip side. Sleep well. Just say no to nuclear..LOL
i see a new low soon.
65 west and 20 north !!
I'm thinking 94L will make its way over to Jamaica/Cuba and begin to form where the winds are converging and MLC was. Maybe by tomorrow it could be back if it continues NE.
813. JRRP

mmmmmmm
Well-defined eye feature aloft with Adrian:



Usually when this happens, rapid intensification quickly follows if conditions permit.
Quoting alfabob:
I'm thinking 94L will make its way over to Jamaica/Cuba and begin to form where the winds are converging and MLC was. Maybe by tomorrow it could be back if it continues NE.

maybe then after it does that it should strat to lift off to the NW-WNW
Quoting KoritheMan:
Well-defined eye feature aloft with Adrian:



Usually when this happens, rapid intensification quickly follows if conditions permit.
Yes..was thinking the same thing.
Quoting JRRP:

mmmmmmm
Mmmhhhhhhhhhmmm

Well I'm off to bed, night all
818. Hugo7
Gave that storm a name. Storms love names.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST June 8 2011
==================================

Yesterday's low pressure area over east central Arabian Sea now lies as a well marked low pressure area over the same region

Vortex over Arabian Sea centered within half a degree of 17.5N 70.0E. Center is better seen in visible imagery and not much movement is observed in the system. Dvorak Intensity is T1.0. Associated broken intense to very intense convection (cloud top temperature -88C) over arabian sea between 14.5N to 20.5N and 62.0E to 69.5E.

Scattered low/medium clouds with embedded isolated moderate to intense convection over rest Arabian Sea north of 8.0N east of 60.0E.
820. JLPR2
If it weren't for the shear I would say the area now north of PR would be Pre-95L


It's got a nice vort with it.
Quoting pottery:

It's more complex than that, too.
Nuclear reaction is dependent upon the reaction of things one to another.
If you get the Physics right, you have a Nuclear Explosion.
Nuclear plants do this, but in a controlled way. Its a balancing act. The "explosion" is ongoing and is controlled and results in heat which generates steam to run turbines to turn generators.
When you have an earthquake, a tsunami, and a fire, you lose control.

I dont know if they shut down the reactors in a controlled way, or if they shut down because they could not control them.

They were pumping water onto the cores to cool them, because they were overheating. They had no control.


if you tune in to the BBC, they have great on going coverage, unlike CNN and fox and...AP

the reactors had a perfect worse case event, yes the earth quake effected them, and yes the Tasmania also.

some of the things I have learned is they "think" reactors 2,3,4 have "melted down" and have been in that state within 24 hours after the Tasmania, they have discovered some of the water level gauges to be reading inaccurately by as much as 20% higher than what the level really is.

the state of the -cores- has been simply explained that they -probably- over heated, the pellets then would have melted the rods they are in, the cluster of rods sets then would have dropped the pellets to the bottom of the containment vessel, which then the "blob" would eventually melted the bottom out of the containment vessel, which would release the core and the reactor water in to the basement. which would explain the on going battle of uncontrolled flow and high amount of radiation in the surround seas. the Fukashima plant is only one of a total of four plants that have noted problems, with a combination 15 reactors total (I think), The country of Japan is slightly smaller than the state of California.

Soon after this I wrote about it, before it hit the Chernobyl scale.

Link

just note the dates..
Blog dead.
RSMC Miami National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADRIAN (EP012011)
2:00 AM PDT June 8 2011
===================================

SUBJECT: "ADRIAN" Strengthens And Is Expected To Rapidly Strengthen

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Adrian (998 hPa) located at 12.0N 100.9W or 300 NM south of Acapulco, Mexico has sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Gale Force Winds
================
60 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 13.4N 102.0W - 70 knots (CAT 1/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 14.7N 104.3W - 90 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 15.5N 106.5W - 90 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Cyclone)
824. IKE
Atlantic basin looks quiet the next 7-10 days.

0-0-0 rocks on.
It's time to put this in the coffin:
Good morning, good day to the rest of the world. A flourescent sunrise greets me here in NE Fla, all brilliant pinks and purples.
827. IKE
Massive 20% chance of rain for you the next 6 days aquak. Break out the umbrellas and galoshes.

I had a 60% chance yesterday and got none.
Good morning Ike and Aquak.Wait ike did not Crown weather say this 94L would develop?What about the 6000 posts from the kiddies? Looks like last year has ran over to this year with this blog.Well to still your thunder 0-0-0.
829. MahFL
aquak9, you popping LSD ?
Actually it is a pretty sunrise as I look out of the 14th story window.
Man we need 94L to gain a little strength and bring us some rain here in central Florida ... PLEASE!!!!
831. IKE
2 day QPF....


Good morning. More rain for Puerto Rico today. The flash flood watch was extended until late afternoon. I haven't see the sun with a clear blue sky in San Juan for the past few days.
Saint- I like 0-0-0. But could we please do something about the rain deficit?

MAH- it only lasted maybe four minutes. Being only three miles inland, I get a bright, albeit quick horizon cross of the sun. This hippie doesn't do drugs.

Ike- I'm gonna do a rain dance very soon.
Supposed to be near 100 all over the eastern seaboard today and (especially) tomorrow. I've now heard two mets--obvious devotees of the same forecasting service--say that this will almost certainly be the hottest day many cities will see all year. IOW, it will get no warmer the entire rest of the summer. That seems to me a bit presumptuous given that it's, you know, only the first week of June. But what do I know?

Anyway, this should make some feel better about next week:

8 - 14 Day (click for larger image):

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.


:-\
835. IKE
The bearer of bad news...Miami discussion style....

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN STORY IS THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE W CARIB. TAFB
HAS DETERMINED A LOW CENTER NEAR 18N 81W AND THE FORECAST WILL BE
ABOUT HOW THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP AND AFFECT S FLA...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WAY OF RAINFALL. WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SW GULF OF MEX...THE
LOW IN THE CARIB HAS SW WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM AND AT THIS TIME
RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD
BUT WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT. THE ECMWF/NAM DIFFER SOMEWHAT
FROM THE GFS IN THAT THE UPPER LOW IN THE GULF GRADUALLY LIFTS
NORTHWARD AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE W U.S. COAST WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SE U.S. MOVING SE AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. BUT THE 2 FORMER MODELS MOVE A SURFACE
LOW NE JUST OFF OF THE SE FLA COAST WHILE THE LATTER...WHICH ALSO
MOVES THE LOW NE...BUT MUCH FURTHER E ACROSS E CUBA AND THE S
BAHAMAS. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL SOME IN-FLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE LOW BUT GUIDANCE SLOWS THIS TREND BUT ALSO WITH THE
PROJECTED MOVEMENT...S FLA WILL BE ON THE "DRIER" SIDE.
FOR TODAY
...ESSENTIALLY DRY AND BREEZY THOUGH ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS EAST
COAST WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE W INTERIOR
AND W. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE IS FORECAST OVER S
FLA WITH POPS INCHING UPWARD FROM 20% THURSDAY TO 30% FRIDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AT THIS TIME
DAILY AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE WITH NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. UNTIL A MORE DEFINITIVE PATTERN DEVELOPS...THE TREND
APPEARS TO KEEP S FLA ON THE DRIER SIDE OF ANY DEVELOPING ACTIVITY
SO THE DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE DOES NOT ARRIVE...WILL KEEP POPS
MINIMAL.

Quoting marknmelb:
Man we need 94L to gain a little strength and bring us some rain here in central Florida ... PLEASE!!!!

Wind shear is making 94L avoid hitting Florida. :( news for Florida.
837. Hugo7
Adrian is getting an eye, and possible 95 on horizon outside of car
838. IKE
Tampa, FL. extended....

FOR NOW HAVE
CONTINUED WITH THE 20-30 POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM AND WILL WAIT TO
SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
say that this will almost certainly be the hottest day many cities will see all year.

Maybe they meant, of the year thus far? Obviously they ain't spent an August afternoon in Florida.
weird, I just got an attack page from AGV. Anybody else seeing that here?
Quoting aquak9:
say that this will almost certainly be the hottest day many cities will see all year.

Maybe they meant, of the year thus far? Obviously they ain't spent an August afternoon in Florida.

No, they definitely used words along the lines of, "Wednesday and Thursday will probably be the hottest days any of these cities will see for the rest of the year".

Yeah, we've seen lots of heat here in Naples already, but the insane humidity hasn't hit yet; those 90/90 days are yet to come...


Solar Tsunami Heading Earth's Way; Auroras to be Visible on Thursday

Link
843. IKE
No more floater on 94L
................................................. .................................................


SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT WED JUN 08 2011

.SYNOPSIS...A NEARLY STATIONARY 1008 MB LOW IS NEAR 18N81W. THE
LOW WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY MOVE NW TO N THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THU NIGHT REACHING WESTERN CUBA BY EARLY FRI...THEN POSSIBLY
TURN MORE TOWARDS TO THE N AND NE LATER FRI AND SAT AS IT PULLS
AWAY FROM THE AREA. PERSISTENT BROAD TROUGHING WILL LINGER IN
THE NORTH PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. A TROPICAL WAVE JUST
SE OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN HELPING TO INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

................................................. .................................................. ...........

94L will be moving into 50-60 knots of shear....


New poster here but it seems like we're settling finally into a normal summer weather pattern here in SE Texas. Instead of warm and dry, it's warm and humid. We got 1 inch of rain Monday, parts of my county got the same on Sunday, and yesterday it poured like crazy in the two counties below me.

And instead of 105 highs like on Sunday and Monday, I don't think it got out of the 80's yesterday. The long range rain forecast looks better for us now too.

Sorry Florida if you don't get the rain out of what's left of 94, but we need it in Texas too. If it doesn't come your way, hopefully we get it next week.
very active itcz ,this early in the season
846. IKE
Houston,TX. forecast shows highs in the mid 90's through Sunday and then upper 90's Monday and Tuesday. Twenty percent chance of rain...at the most...for the next week. Some days have no chance of rain for Houston.
very stormy africa this morning. if this trend continues then we might have an active july and the heart of the season
IKE 11:05 AM GMT on June 08, 2011 Hide this comment.
No more floater on 94L


I think they will soon deactivate 94L. Nothing left there.
Where's the morning shift?
850. IKE

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
IKE 11:05 AM GMT on June 08, 2011 Hide this comment.
No more floater on 94L


I think they will soon deactivate 94L. Nothing left there.
Agree.
851. IKE
Bye-bye 94L.....

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN TO
THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY
RAINS COULD STILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS
OF HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...JAMAICA...AND CUBA AS THIS
SYSTEM DRIFTS GENERALLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
I am going to go crawl in a hole now....


DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN STORY IS THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE W CARIB. TAFB
HAS DETERMINED A LOW CENTER NEAR 18N 81W AND THE FORECAST WILL BE
ABOUT HOW THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP AND AFFECT S FLA...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WAY OF RAINFALL. WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SW GULF OF MEX...THE
LOW IN THE CARIB HAS SW WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM AND AT THIS TIME
RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD
BUT WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT. THE ECMWF/NAM DIFFER SOMEWHAT
FROM THE GFS IN THAT THE UPPER LOW IN THE GULF GRADUALLY LIFTS
NORTHWARD AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE W U.S. COAST WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SE U.S. MOVING SE AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. BUT THE 2 FORMER MODELS MOVE A SURFACE
LOW NE JUST OFF OF THE SE FLA COAST WHILE THE LATTER...WHICH ALSO
MOVES THE LOW NE...BUT MUCH FURTHER E ACROSS E CUBA AND THE S
BAHAMAS. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL SOME IN-FLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE LOW BUT GUIDANCE SLOWS THIS TREND BUT ALSO WITH THE
PROJECTED MOVEMENT...S FLA WILL BE ON THE "DRIER" SIDE. FOR TODAY

...ESSENTIALLY DRY AND BREEZY THOUGH ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS EAST
COAST WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE W INTERIOR
AND W. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE IS FORECAST OVER S
FLA WITH POPS INCHING UPWARD FROM 20% THURSDAY TO 30% FRIDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AT THIS TIME
DAILY AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE WITH NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. UNTIL A MORE DEFINITIVE PATTERN DEVELOPS...THE TREND
APPEARS TO KEEP S FLA ON THE DRIER SIDE OF ANY DEVELOPING ACTIVITY
SO THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE DOES NOT ARRIVE...WILL KEEP POPS
MINIMAL.
Oh Lord, de Glorious Mornin' come !

A band of green Parrots in a tree outside Shrieking and Laughing at the Sunrise .
Hot coffee in hand.
The Basin swept almost clean (compared to the last week).
No T-Waves to worry about.
A wet mass over Africa.

All is well!
854. IKE

Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
I am going to go crawl in a hole now....


DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN STORY IS THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE W CARIB. TAFB
HAS DETERMINED A LOW CENTER NEAR 18N 81W AND THE FORECAST WILL BE
ABOUT HOW THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP AND AFFECT S FLA...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WAY OF RAINFALL. WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SW GULF OF MEX...THE
LOW IN THE CARIB HAS SW WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM AND AT THIS TIME
RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD
BUT WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT. THE ECMWF/NAM DIFFER SOMEWHAT
FROM THE GFS IN THAT THE UPPER LOW IN THE GULF GRADUALLY LIFTS
NORTHWARD AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE W U.S. COAST WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SE U.S. MOVING SE AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. BUT THE 2 FORMER MODELS MOVE A SURFACE
LOW NE JUST OFF OF THE SE FLA COAST WHILE THE LATTER...WHICH ALSO
MOVES THE LOW NE...BUT MUCH FURTHER E ACROSS E CUBA AND THE S
BAHAMAS. REGARDLESS...THERE WILL SOME IN-FLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE LOW BUT GUIDANCE SLOWS THIS TREND BUT ALSO WITH THE
PROJECTED MOVEMENT...S FLA WILL BE ON THE "DRIER" SIDE. FOR TODAY

...ESSENTIALLY DRY AND BREEZY THOUGH ISOLATED MORNING SHOWERS EAST
COAST WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE W INTERIOR
AND W. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE IS FORECAST OVER S
FLA WITH POPS INCHING UPWARD FROM 20% THURSDAY TO 30% FRIDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AT THIS TIME
DAILY AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE WITH NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. UNTIL A MORE DEFINITIVE PATTERN DEVELOPS...THE TREND
APPEARS TO KEEP S FLA ON THE DRIER SIDE OF ANY DEVELOPING ACTIVITY
SO THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE DOES NOT ARRIVE...WILL KEEP POPS
MINIMAL.
***But the rainy season should start next week in Florida***

Sarcasm flag on.
855. IKE
MJO....


I just have to laugh at the long term forecast showing above normal precip for FL. "It ain't happening"
NWS Wilmington, NC

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...FORECAST BECOMES INTERESTING IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CUBA TONIGHT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AND A DIVERSE SET OF SOLUTIONS EXISTS
WITH THE MODELS AT THIS POINT. THE NAM TRIES TO INTENSIFY SYSTEM AND
BRING IT NORTH JUST OFF THE FLORIDA COAST BY FRI AFTN AND
CONTINUING UP THE COAST REACHING OFF THE GA COAST BY SAT MORNING.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING AN INCREASING FETCH OF MOISTURE INTO THE
CAROLINA COAST ON SATURDAY. THE GFS AND CANADIAN...WITH A WEAKER
SOLUTION...BRINGS THE LOW UP THROUGH THE BAHAMAS ON FRI NIGHT AND
CONTINUES ON A NORTHWARD TRACK. THE LOW REACHES OVER 350 MILES
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING WHILE A COLD
FRONT TRACKS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE 12Z ECMWF
IS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS BUT CLOSER TO THE GFS WITH MAIN
EFFECTS OF WEATHER COMING FROM THE COLD FRONT RATHER THAN THIS
TROPICAL LOW. A VERY BROAD MID TO UPPER LOW SHOULD DEVELOP OVER
THE GULF WHICH WILL HELP TO STEER THE LOW NORTHWARD INITIALLY BUT
SHORTWAVE IN NORTHERN STREAM SHOULD HELP TO STEER SYSTEM FARTHER
EAST AND KICK FRONT THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SUN NIGHT INTO MON. WE
MAY SEE A PUSH OF MOISTURE COMING FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST AS
SYSTEM MOVES NORTH IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEKEND...BUT FOR NOW EXPECT BEST CHC OF PCP TO COME FROM COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. BOTH THE
TROPICAL LOW AND COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC AWAY
FROM LOCAL AREA MON INTO TUES.
QUOTING CYCLONICVOYAGE:

This is not what I wanted to hear, the first thing in the morning.
Adrian is definitely intensfying a lot quicker than expected...At this rate, I believe he/it will peak as a 110-115 mph Category 2/3 hurricane.

Quoting IKE:

***But the rainy season should start next week in Florida***

Sarcasm flag on.

Hope that you can find some rains soon.
Too many areas in the US under heavy manners from the Dry. Not good.
For those who like long range models
The floater for 94L is gone.
Nothing to see here people, just move on.
Into the hurricane season,,,and nothing but heat and humidity here in SE Texas,,,,
Quoting emcf30:


Solar Tsunami Heading Earth's Way; Auroras to be Visible on Thursday

Link


Yet the sun remains mostly spotless.

aquak how is the rain dance going. Everyone would like to see some results fast.
Quoting IKE:
MJO....




We shouldn't have any development out in the Atlantic until the last week or so of this month at the earliest.

Not saying it isn't possible, just saying its extremely unlikely.
Quoting beeleeva:
Into the hurricane season,,,and nothing but heat and humidity here in SE Texas,,,,

Yeah!
And it's been an entire WEEK !!
LOL

Very Strange weather, for sure.
Feast and Famine on the Weather Front.
Quoting druseljic:
Where's the morning shift?


Starbucks.
Quoting marknmelb:
Man we need 94L to gain a little strength and bring us some rain here in central Florida ... PLEASE!!!!


Be careful for what you wish for, long soaking rain,
not tropical depression deluge.
We had two weeks of that in NH at the end of May.
Grass(weeds)are growing exponentially.
872. Hugo7
few more models shifting to push adrian more northerly track now. Prolly hurricane strength in 12 hours. I see the same thing as always with it going straight to the gulf of Cali.
Tom Terry and gang still continue to hold on to 50% chance of rain here in CFL. They are about the only ones

Quoting iceagecoming:


Yet the sun remains mostly spotless.


Check this out:
Space Weather Prediction Center
Quoting houston144:


if you tune in to the BBC, they have great on going coverage, unlike CNN and fox and...AP

the reactors had a perfect worse case event, yes the earth quake effected them, and yes the Tasmania also.

some of the things I have learned is they "think" reactors 2,3,4 have "melted down" and have been in that state within 24 hours after the Tasmania, they have discovered some of the water level gauges to be reading inaccurately by as much as 20% higher than what the level really is.

the state of the -cores- has been simply explained that they -probably- over heated, the pellets then would have melted the rods they are in, the cluster of rods sets then would have dropped the pellets to the bottom of the containment vessel, which then the "blob" would eventually melted the bottom out of the containment vessel, which would release the core and the reactor water in to the basement. which would explain the on going battle of uncontrolled flow and high amount of radiation in the surround seas. the Fukashima plant is only one of a total of four plants that have noted problems, with a combination 15 reactors total (I think), The country of Japan is slightly smaller than the state of California.

Soon after this I wrote about it, before it hit the Chernobyl scale.

Link

just note the dates..

Thanks for that.
Quoting pottery:

Hope that you can find some rains soon.
Too many areas in the US under heavy manners from the Dry. Not good.
Can tell you are West Indian LOL. Weather has pretty much dried up over here.



Mojo Discussion

Excerpt:

Across the western hemisphere, TD1 developed across the eastern Pacific basin on 7 June and is forecast to strengthen to hurricane strength and move northwestward. It is not forecast to impact any land areas, however. persistent low pressure favors the continuation of enhanced rainfall across the Caribbean Islands and portions of the far western Atlantic including the Bahamas especially early in the period. Model forecast guidance continues to favor drier-than-average conditions across southern Mexico.

This is an interesting article. I am just posting an excerpt, but the link is the full article. Very germane to the current situation.

For example, in Broward County, where the problem is particularly acute, the population grew by more than 200,000 people between 1980 and 1990 and is expected to increase by another half-million by 2010. According to the county's water management division, residents use an average of 200 gallons per person per day; that means water use went up by more than 14.5 billion gallons per year last decade and will increase by more than twice that in the next 15 years.

"The impact of the additional people has caused there to be less area for water to percolate into to replenish the Biscayne aquifer," says Fred Bloetscher, deputy utilities director for Hollywood, a Broward County coastal city, "and as a result it's lowered the aquifer head, and that lowered head allows saltwater to creep farther inland. The increased demand only makes the problem worse during the dry season when there's no real ability for replenishment to occur in most of the Everglades system."

When people began moving to South Florida in large numbers early in the century, they settled along the eastern coastal ridge. Directly beneath this ridge is the Biscayne aquifer, one of the largest and highest quality concentrations of fresh groundwater in the world. Cities drilled their wells and everything was fine for the most part until about the 1960s, when water from the wells began to taste a little salty.


Link
See ya


invest_DEACTIVATE_al942011.ren 08-Jun-2011 12:04 3.3K
Quoting emcf30:


Solar Tsunami Heading Earth's Way; Auroras to be Visible on Thursday

Link
Very cool...Thanks for posting it.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
See ya


invest_DEACTIVATE_al942011.ren 08-Jun-2011 12:04 3.3K


been expecting that...
Time to put this thing in the coffin:
invest_DEACTIVATE_al942011.ren 08-Jun-2011 12:04 3.3K
It's not like this is the first year the rainy season is a tad late... sometimes it's late June.

Keep those sprinklers runnin!
884. P451
Quoting Vincent4989:
It's time to put this in the coffin:


But...but..but... the CMC said it would be a CAT 2 hitting SFLA today! All the models developed it hundreds of hours in advance! This can't be!

Quoting P451:


But...but..but... the CMC said it would be a CAT 2 hitting SFLA today! All the models developed it hundreds of hours in advance! This can't be!


LOL
Quoting hydrus:
Very cool...Thanks for posting it.

Your welcome. Hows things in the Vol State this morning
Quoting Neapolitan:
Supposed to be near 100 all over the eastern seaboard today and (especially) tomorrow. I've now heard two mets--obvious devotees of the same forecasting service--say that this will almost certainly be the hottest day many cities will see all year. IOW, it will get no warmer the entire rest of the summer. That seems to me a bit presumptuous given that it's, you know, only the first week of June. But what do I know?

Anyway, this should make some feel better about next week:

8 - 14 Day (click for larger image):

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.


:-\
Bet the Northeast gets 100 degree temps in July and August also, good news for them is their heat will not last too long, they get some relief with a front or rain. Here in Texas only relief we get will be something tropical or you wait until October when a front comes down. In 2009, we had 69 days of over 100 degree heat but the first one wasnt until June 13th. We have already had 8 100 degree days here and Summer is still 2 weeks away. The yearly average where I live is 12. I would love a tropical depression give Florida to Texas alot of rain and soon. Have a great day!
Quoting P451:


But...but..but... the CMC said it would be a CAT 2 hitting SFLA today! All the models developed it hundreds of hours in advance! This can't be!

Bummer.....I had the keg cooler and grill prepped for 94L....cry,.sniffle...:(
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
See ya


invest_DEACTIVATE_al942011.ren 08-Jun-2011 12:04 3.3K
Back to the waiting game, R.I.P. 94L...... Guess the basin isn't quite ready for Arlene....
Adrian on the other hand, well.... Cat.2 or Category 3 hurricane is in store for this nicely packed little Tropical Storm.....
Fire...baaad.
891. IKE

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
See ya


invest_DEACTIVATE_al942011.ren 08-Jun-2011 12:04 3.3K
Dead. RIP.

$$
Quoting Grothar:
QUOTING CYCLONICVOYAGE:

This is not what I wanted to hear, the first thing in the morning.



I know, I know. I figured my extreme wishcasting would seal the deal yesterday. Looks like the firefighters west of Miami battling the wildfire are getting rather desperate.
Quoting emcf30:

Your welcome. Hows things in the Vol State this morning
Actually, I am in Port Charlotte, FL working on houses that were abandoned after Charley. The county bought most of them and the company I work for makes them new again. Its a lot of work..
Quoting hydrus:
Actually, I am in Port Charlotte, FL working on houses that were abandoned after Charley. The county bought most of them and the company I work for makes them new again. Its a lot of work..

I bet you do have your work cut out for you there. Well then Welcome to the Sunshine State..
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
758 AM EDT WED JUN 8 2011


THUR-FRI...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NORTH OF FLORIDA INTO
LATE WEEK WITH A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS SHOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE BUILDING NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA THURSDAY ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA
ALOFT. MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED TO THE LOW LEVELS...HOWEVER THIS
DISTURBANCE MAY BE ABLE TO AID IN CONVECTION LATER IN THE DAY. WILL
THEREFORE KEEP ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WORDING IN FOR THURS
AFT.

THE FORECAST FOR FRI IS MORE UNCERTAIN AS MODELS SHOW A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF CARIBBEAN. THE
ECMWF AND NAM HAVE THIS SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHWARD CLOSE TO THE EAST
COAST OF FL...WHILE THE GFS IS MUCH FARTHER EAST. THE NAM SOLUTION
HOWEVER LOOKS TOO STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A FAVORED PREFERENCE
IN TRACK AND STRENGTH BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. MOISTURE SHOULD
INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS SYSTEM BUILDS NORTHWARD WITH POPS UP TO
30% OVER THE INTERIOR WHERE AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS FAVORED WITH EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER IF THE LOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TRACK CLOSER TO FLORIDA...AS
IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION...RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST MAY NEED TO BE
HIGHER.

HIGHS EACH DAY WILL REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH THE MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST TO LOW
90S INLAND. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S...WITH MID 70S ALONG THE
COAST WHERE ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS ELEVATED.

SAT-TUES...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE A NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD
TRACK OFFSHORE OF FLORIDA INTO THE WEEKEND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH POSITIONING ITSELF ACROSS THE STATE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE AS THE WEAK LOW PULLS AWAY
FROM THE AREA WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH
AFT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. SINCE MOISTURE IS
NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY INTO THE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
KEEP POPS LIMITED TO 30 PERCENT. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKIES GENERALLY PARTLY
CLOUDY.

&&
Metcheck Daily NAO, AO and PNA indices:

Link
SDO's images show a very large eruption of cool gas. It is somewhat unique as at many places in the eruption there seems to be even cooler material -- at temperatures less than 80,000 degrees Kelvin.
(143540.3 F)

Meh... max has to say sensational things to keep the news paycheck coming.

I've lived in Florida all of my life, and the rainy season doesn't watch the calendar. Heck some years it never really shows up.

But to be fair I live north of the lake... I'm sure it's different in S FL.
Adrian is well on his way to becoming a hurricane; he should be one later today.

EP, 01, 2011060812, , BEST, 0, 123N, 1009W, 55, 995, TS, 50, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 30, 1008, 200, 30, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ADRIAN, D,
Quoting emcf30:

I bet you do have your work cut out for you there. Well then Welcome to the Sunshine State..
Quoting emcf30:

I bet you do have your work cut out for you there. Well then Welcome to the Sunshine State..
I was born and raised in South Florida and still call it home. My parents moved to Tennessee after the 2004 hurricane season. I was up there taking care of them. Now my sister in not well, so I had to come back home to help her with the company...work, work and more work..:)
65 mph, 995 mb

we are gathered here today to keep in our memory the invest 94l what can i say your life was a surprize to us we had high hopes for you seven days you teased and excited many we were with you from the beginning till the end so long 94l till we meet again RIP.

94L GONE BUT NOT FORGOTTON
BORNED MAY 31 2011
DIED JUNE 8 2011
....RIP....



LOL
Quoting FLdewey:
Meh... max has to say sensational things to keep the news paycheck coming.

I've lived in Florida all of my life, and the rainy season doesn't watch the calendar. Heck some years it never really shows up.

But to be fair I live north of the lake... I'm sure it's different in S FL.


"94L GONE BUT NOT FORGOTTON
BORNED MAY 31 2011
DIED JUNE 8 2011
....RIP...."



somewhere, in a Target breakroom, Reedzone is weeping.
I really wish you guys would stop making fun of Reedzone all the time...It's getting annoying and its disrespectful to him.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
we are gathered here today to keep in our memory the invest 94l what can i say your life was a surprize to us we had high hopes for you seven days you teased and excited many we were with you from the beginning till the end so long 94l till we meet again RIP.

94L GONE BUT NOT FORGOTTON
BORNED MAY 31 2011
DIED JUNE 8 2011
....RIP....



LOL
A Christian burial ? The soul of 94L now ascends to the green pastures of invest heaven...sniffle
If Adrian does meet and then exceed his current intensity projections, it'll be the East Pacific's earliest major hurricane for quite some time (probably since Alma of 2002 which reached it in May). Celia was early last year, but not this early (that said, it did become a Cat 5).

Although, you could root for Adrian to do a 'Celia' as it heads out to the deep blue sea. There's never been a recorded case (as of yet) of both the East Pacific and Atlantic having a Category 5 in a single year (of course, East Pacific records are nowhere near the same historical depth as its Atlantic counterparts).
More eyes are looking at Adrian.
910. Jax82
So much for the early start to Florida's "Rainy Season" LOL
Just the tip!
Good morning everyone. Last night here in Key West the wind picked up quite a bit at sunset, then suddenly died down. I guess it was that high lifting off allowing the low to move into the area. This morning is cloudy, but the clouds do not look heavy enough for rain. But where there are clouds there is hope. At least with the cloud cover, we will have a somewhat cooler day than yesterday. Everyone wish us some rain please.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I really wish you guys would stop making fun of Reedzone all the time...It's getting annoying and its disrespectful to him.
Especially YOU, pressureman.
First visible of the day coming soon for Adrian...

Quoting kwgirl:
Good morning everyone. Last night here in Key West the wind picked up quite a bit at sunset, then suddenly died down. I guess it was that high lifting off allowing the low to move into the area. This morning is cloudy, but the clouds do not look heavy enough for rain. But where there are clouds there is hope. At least with the cloud cover, we will have a somewhat cooler day than yesterday. Everyone wish us some rain please.
We will get some rain. We may get some heavier amounts later in the month if the models pan out.
Wonder what the most number of invests used before the first TD/TS was....
Quoting largeeyes:
Wonder what the most number of invests used before the first TD/TS was....


I'd like to know that as well...I'd be rather hard to find out though.
look at 65 west
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
we are gathered here today to keep in our memory the invest 94l what can i say your life was a surprize to us we had high hopes for you seven days you teased and excited many we were with you from the beginning till the end so long 94l till we meet again RIP.

94L GONE BUT NOT FORGOTTON
BORNED MAY 31 2011
DIED JUNE 8 2011
....RIP....



LOL


....and the blog stalls and comes to rest against the curb...
waiting for something to put hope on, an Invest that won't let us down. A fine young and strong system that passes through the Hebert box and gives promise of a dream...a wet dream. A couple of inches anyway in South Florida..
Till then, we are floundering, grasping at leaky Nuclear plants, solar flares and brush fires. It's the 7th of June! Let the Hurricane season begin!
Awwww! Poo.
It's enough to drive a man to drink...!

Too bad it's too early!
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
look at 65 west


Quoting largeeyes:
Wonder what the most number of invests used before the first TD/TS was....


Depends when the idea of using the numbers began. I guess pick a late starting year that was active and you're probably not far off.
Quoting hydrus:
Actually, I am in Port Charlotte, FL working on houses that were abandoned after Charley. The county bought most of them and the company I work for makes them new again. Its a lot of work..


Awesome idea. Wish St. Lucie County would do that. We still have houses in Port St. Lucie damaged from the storms, not to mention all the empty foreclosure ones. Makes sense..buy them, fix them up (creating construction jobs) and sell them. Win win situation. Sigh, on the other hand, was sooo looking forward to a rainy weekend. Bye bye 94L.
First visible of the day on Adrian.

Quoting FLdewey:
LOL... yes the cone from Key West to Bangor Maine is a fond memory.

If you can work a foot joke in quietly I think they work. There's really no need to tiptoe around the issue.

I think we need a chicken cam... give the chicken a map of the CONUS. First place he... um... blesses is the center of the cone.

Link
Quoting KanKunKid:


....and the blog stalls and comes to rest against the curb...
waiting for something to put hope on, an Invest that won't let us down. A fine young and strong system that passes through the Hebert box and gives promise of a dream...a wet dream. A couple of inches anyway in South Florida..
Till then, we are floundering, grasping at leaky Nuclear plants, solar flares and brush fires. It's the 7th of June! Let the Hurricane season begin!
Awwww! Poo.
It's enough to drive a man to drink...!

Too bad it's too early!
It is 5:00 PM somewhere. I just had to say it.
Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:


Awesome idea. Wish St. Lucie County would do that. We still have houses in Port St. Lucie damaged from the storms, not to mention all the empty foreclosure ones. Makes sense..buy them, fix them up (creating construction jobs) and sell them. Win win situation. Sigh, on the other hand, was sooo looking forward to a rainy weekend. Bye bye 94L.
The county has done a good job of getting things back to normal, even though it actually is impossible to do so. It will take over a 100 years for the trees to make a full comeback, if ever. .. Western Cuba has vast forests of dead trees from recent storms and from storms hundreds of years ago...I have seen pictures and they are quite eerie looking.
Tropical Storm Adrian has spectacular outflow, along with very intense thunderstorms flaring up here and there across its CDO. This is a well-defined tropical storm, and will likely by a hurricane later on this afternoon/evening.

Quoting FLdewey:
LOL... yes the cone from Key West to Bangor Maine is a fond memory.

If you can work a foot joke in quietly I think they work. There's really no need to tiptoe around the issue.

I think we need a chicken cam... give the chicken a map of the CONUS. First place he... um... blesses is the center of the cone.


Ah yes, the old "Chicken....er, 'blessing' model"

If I remember right, we were castigated for being inventive and too humorous and it was taken as an insult or something, although as accurate as some of the other models.

I learned one thing: The bigger the map, the better the resolution. One "blessing" covered the whole of Hispaniola on the smaller map. What's the "cone" of uncertainty on that?

Sadly, the "CS Model" did not gain acceptance here on the blog and although the Chicken was a good forecaster, he was a better meal.

Hunger and lack of interest has all but stopped our research. When the economy gets better, we can afford to experiment more with "dinner".
Quoting PcolaDan:

Link
Was that chicken wearing a hat? LOL at least they are in cages, where all good chickens belong.
And we've been reduced to watching what hens do....we need a system bad in the Atlantic, lol.
Quoting Orcasystems:
Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI







Orca, enjoy that blowout the other night? :)
Quoting DestinJeff:


I think with a little effort "humor bans" can be avoided ... you just have to be quick on your feet.
Good morning..Speaking of bans..
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
And we've been reduced to watching what hens do....we need a system bad in the Atlantic, lol.


Quoting kwgirl:
Was that chicken wearing a hat? LOL at least they are in cages, where all good chickens belong.


May have to save the link to the cam for future reference. ;>)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Tropical Storm Adrian has spectacular outflow, along with very intense thunderstorms flaring up here and there across its CDO. This is a well-defined tropical storm, and will likely by a hurricane later on this afternoon/evening.

Needs to work on his right side but is a nice looking system.
I don't know about anyone else, but it gets kind of old having to wade through the childish banter to get to good information on this site.
NEW BLOG!
Quoting DestinJeff:


I think with a little effort "humor bans" can be avoided ... you just have to be quick on your feet.


Maybe an educational segment is in order:

To get out of a "Humor ban", you tell the Admin,

A. Someone stole my password and wrote that.

B. I never wrote that!

C. FLDewey said the same thing!

D. Look! A new invest headed for Florida!

E. You have no sense of humor!


Please choose only one.

Your answers will be graded on a curve and the ability to hold back flatulence in a crowded elevator.

Having said that, (disclaimer) this is all in fun. Don't **** with Admin. (not kidding)
Good Morning....Looks like that mid-Atlantic ULL sweeping out the Caribbean is also gonna steal some of the rain chances for Florida...Guess it's back to pop-up showers for the time being.