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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Are We Entering a New Period of Rapid Global Warming?

By: Bob Henson 5:04 PM GMT on February 24, 2015

Residents of New England may understandably look back at 2015 as the year of their never-ending winter. For the planet as a whole, though, this year could stand out most for putting to rest the “hiatus”— the 15-year slowdown in atmospheric warming that gained intense scrutiny by pundits, scientists, and the public. While interesting in its own right, the hiatus garnered far more attention than it deserved as a purported sign that future global warming would be much less than expected. The slowdown was preceded by almost 20 years of dramatic global temperature rise, and with 2014 having set a new global record high, there are signs that another decade-plus period of intensified atmospheric warming may be at our doorstep.

The most compelling argument for a renewed surge in global air temperature is rooted in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). This index tracks the fingerprint of sea surface temperature (SST) across the Pacific north of 20°N. A closely related index, the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), covers a larger swath of the entire Pacific. Both the PDO and IPO capture back-and-forth swings in the geography of Pacific SSTs that affect the exchange of heat between ocean and atmosphere (see Figure 1). We’ll use PDO as shorthand for both indexes in the following discussion.

The PDO typically leans toward a positive or negative state for more than a decade at a time. The positive phase, which features warmer-than-average SSTs along the U.S. West Coast, was dominant from the mid-1970s to the late 1990s. The PDO then flipped to a negative phase between about 1999 and 2013, with cooler-than-average SSTs along the West Coast. Figure 2 shows that even when a particular mode is favored, the PDO can still flip back to its opposite mode for periods of a few months or so.


Figure 1. Departures from average sea-surface temperature (degrees C) and wind (arrows) that typically prevail when the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is in its positive mode (left) and negative mode (right). Image credit: University of Washington.


It’s not clear exactly what drives the PDO, but in some ways it can be viewed as a geographically expanded version of the SST patterns created by El Niño and La Niña, averaged over a longer time period. (See Figure 2.) It’s well-established that El Niño can raise global temperature for a few months by several tenths of a degree Celsius, as warm water spreads over the eastern tropical Pacific and mixes with the overlying atmosphere. Likewise, La Niña can act to pull down global average temperature, as cooler-than-average water extends further west than usual across the tropical Pacific. The PDO mirrors these trends, but over longer periods. When the PDO is positive, there are more El Niño and fewer La Niña events, and heat stored in the ocean tends to be spread across a larger surface area, allowing it to enter the atmosphere more easily. When the PDO is negative, SSTs are below average across a larger area, and global air temperatures tend to be lower.


Figure 2. Typical warm and cool anomalies in sea-surface temperature during positive PDO years (left) and El Niño years (right). The patterns are similar, though with differences in intensity over some regions. The anomalies are reversed for negative PDO and La Niña years. Image credit: University of Washington Climate Impacts Group.


Figure 3 shows a striking connection between favored PDO modes (top) and global air temperature anomalies (bottom). The vast majority of atmospheric warming over the last century occurred during positive PDO phases, with negative PDOs tending to result in flat temperature trends. It’s easy to see how an atmospheric warming “hiatus” could occur during a negative PDO phase.


Figure 3. PDO values (top) and global air temperature anomalies (bottom). Gray shading indicates positive PDO periods, when atmospheric warming was most evident. The NOAA PDO values shown here vary slightly from those discussed in the article, which are calculated by the University of Washington. Image credit: Jerimiah Brown, Weather Underground. Data sources:NOAA (top) and NOAA/NCDC (bottom).


From the AMS meeting
The hiatus was discussed at length in a series of talks during the annual meeting of the American Meteorological Society last month in Phoenix. Jerry Meehl, from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (my former employer), gave a whirlwind 15-minute overview of hiatus-oriented research conducted over the last six years. Meehl’s talk can be viewed online. More than 20 papers have studied the hiatus and its links to the PDO/IPO, according to Matthew England (University of New South Wales). Most of the flattening of global temperature during the hiatus can be traced to cooler-than-average conditions over the eastern tropical Pacific, which pulled down global averages. An emerging theme is that natural, or internal, variability in the tropical Pacific can explain at least half of the hiatus. NCAR’s Clara Deser presented new modeling evidence along these lines (see video online). Other factors may be involved as well, including a series of weak volcanic eruptions that could explain a small part of the hiatus, according to a recent analysis by Ben Santer (Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory).

One crucial point is that global warming didn’t “stop” during the hiatus: the world’s oceans actually gained heat at an accelerated pace. Trade winds blew more strongly from east to west across the Pacific, consistent with the tendency toward La Niña conditions, as described in this open-access article by NCAR’s Kevin Trenberth and John Fasullo. Over parts of the central tropical Pacific, trade winds averaged about 3 mph stronger during 1999-2012 compared to 1976-1988. These speeds are higher than for any previous hiatus on record, bolstering the idea that other factors may have joined this negative PDO/IPO phase. The faster trade winds encouraged upwelling of cooler water to the east and helped deepen and strengthen the warm pool to the west—enough, in fact, to raise sea level around the Philippines by as much as 8 inches. Other parts of the deep ocean warmed as well. A new study led by Dean Roemmich (Scripps Institution of Oceanography) maps the areas of greatest ocean heating from 2006 to 2013 and finds that significant warming extended to depths of greater than 6600 feet.

What next for the PDO?
The PDO index, as calculated at the University of Washington, scored positive values during every month in 2014, the first such streak since 2003. By December it reached +2.51, the largest positive value for any December in records that go back to 1900. The January value from UW was 2.45, again a monthly record. (NOAA calculates its own PDO values through a closely related methodology.)

Because the PDO can flip modes for a year or more within its longer-term cycle, we don’t yet know whether a significant shift to a positive PDO phase has begun. If trade winds weaken throughout this year, and positive PDO values persist, that’ll be strong evidence that a new cycle is indeed under way. The last time we saw a two-year streak of positive values was in 1992-93. If this occurs, and assuming no spikes in major volcanic activity, we could expect greater rises in global temperature over the next 10 to 15 years than we’ve seen during the hiatus. In addition, we should watch for El Niño to make its presence known more often.

“I am inclined to think the hiatus is over, mainly based on the PDO index change,” NCAR’s Kevin Trenberth told me. While Matthew England isn’t ready to offer such a prediction, he emphasized that any post-hiatus global temperature rise is likely to be fairly rapid. Trenberth also commented on an interesting NOAA analysis (see Figure 4): “If one takes the global mean temperature from 1970 on, everything fits a linear trend quite well except 1998.”


Figure 4. When looking at global temperature over a full PDO cycle (1970s to 2010s), the overall rise becomes evident, despite the flattening observed in the last 15 years. Image credit: NOAA.


A record-strong El Niño occurred in 1998, providing an unusually powerful boost to global temperature and fueling years of subsequent declarations that “global warming stopped in 1998.” The record warmth of 2014 made it clear that global warming has no intention of stopping, and the next few years are likely to reinforce that point. Nevertheless, snowbound New Englanders, and millions of other easterners now dealing with record cold for so late in the year, may be wondering why eastern North America has seen so much cold and snow in the past few winters--especially this one--and how long that climatic quirk might continue. Stay tuned for a separate post on that topic.

Bob Henson

Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

sigh..I try to not comment but..

A lot of you that go out your way to ridicule bloggers must have been picked on in gym class..high school was many moons ago for some of yall..I can tell you that you should just let it go and not take it out on strangers..there is no football team blogging here and you wont be stuffed in any lockers..

You can debate without throwing insults which rarely happens in this place which is why I don't comment on AGW anymore as it always leads in a ban for me and the other parties are free to insult other people..Rood's blog is a war zone and if you dont want to be flag out don't even bother going in there which is why the discussion has moved morel in Dr. Masters arguing as the internet traffic is higher in here..I will defend myself on here as some of you are quite aware but it shouldn't even come to that..its only weather or climate blog but some make it personal every day as I have quietly watched..I still don't understand that reasoning..

Flooding issues looking to be a possiblity for Eastern NC/SC







Quoting 494. VirginIslandsVisitor:



Hey, Joe!

Nice to see you again. Does this mean I have to break out the pea shooters and spit balls again? ;-)


They may be needed! My reputation precedes me! How are things Lindy?
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
134 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS LIGHT ECHOES NOW MOVING
INTO SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE, ALTHOUGH TEMPS ACROSS THE MID
STATE ARE FOR THE MOST PART SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER,
LARGE DEW POINT SPREADS (15-20F) DO LEAVE SOME ROOM FOR
EVAPORATIVE COOLING. TEMPS UPSTREAM WHERE IT HAS ALREADY BEEN
PRECIPITATING ARE RIGHT AROUND FREEZING, SO BELIEVE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WE SEE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SNOW. LATEST HPC
SNOWFALL PROGS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE AMOUNTS WE HAVE BEEN
FORECASTING, SO AM GOING TO LEAVE THE SNOW GRIDS ALONE THIS
FORECAST. NAM BRINGS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE
BETWEEN 00Z & 06Z, WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
06Z. LOOK FOR SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TOMORROW AS A
SECONDARY WAVE PUSHES THROUGH BUT WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL LATER
IN THE WEEKEND WHEN THE NEXT ACTIVE SYSTEM MOVES IN. MODELS ARE
HINTING AT A SPRING-LIKE FRONTAL SYSTEM ON TUESDAY AS MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET APPEAR TO SET THE TABLE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE WE TURN COLDER AGAIN.
Quoting 498. LAbonbon:


All good here, rainy and overcast, but considering that would be a blessing to some, I won't complain :)

Good deal, you got wheels! And care to share your avatar's name? She is gorgeous, btw.


The sweetest dog ever! 6 years old........my wife named her Josie! The new wheels will come in handy!
Quoting opal92nwf:
It's also hard to believe all this stuff when the mature adults I'm around in my family and community all dismiss GW as I live in one of or the most conservative counties in FL.


Most the people I know (professionally and personally) also dismiss GW or have no interest in discussing the topic. Many of these people hold high degrees (Masters or Ph.D.).

Quoting 492. opal92nwf:

It's also hard to believe all this stuff when the mature adults I'm around in my family and community all dismiss GW as I live in one of or the most conservative counties in FL.

I think this may actually be the crux of a large part of this issue. Somehow/some way, this became political. Conservative leaders didn't all used to posture on the side of 'I don't believe it'. Some who currently state they don't believe it have flip-flopped. I don't doubt that if it becomes politically expedient to flip to the 'of course it's AGW' side, they will do so. Thing is, they are dragging so many people with them, and muddying the waters for everyone else.

And I don't believe for a second that they all believe what they're saying.

Thing is, AGW will happen whether people believe it's happening or not. Best any of us can do is to try and educate ourselves the best we can.
Quoting 505. HurricaneHunterJoe:



The sweetest dog ever! 6 years old........my wife named her Josie! The new wheels will come in handy!


I've got a great bumper sticker for you if you want, Joe....*lol* (I don't dare say what it says on the blog, but suffice it to say that it's good island humour!)

Lindy
Just in from my wu-mail


A single Humans beliefs in faith or millions for that matter, has no affect on CO2's ability to absorb and retain Longwave Solar Radiation.

Stop trashing my Creation is a better meme.

"God"
#504 - pegleg666

Mr. Henson's blog post is loaded with science. It also has many links so the reader can delve further. There was a brief mention of pundits and politicians, but the entire blog is pure science.
Quoting 499. yonzabam:

Sorry for being a mile off topic. This isn't weather related, or climate change related, or even science related.

But, I just watched it for the first time 10 minutes ago, and I was almost moved to tears. Just felt I had to share it. It's the most moving video I've ever seen on the Internet. The guy who caught it deserves a medal.

Link

Who started cutting onions?
Quoting 504. pegleg666:

You must be...on drugs. Warming? You're nuts. Drop the politics and stick to science. Please.


Oh, the irony...
Quoting barbamz:
Long new article in the English edition of "Spiegel" (*starts to read it*):



The Warming World: Is Capitalism Destroying Our Planet?
Spiegel English, February 25, 2015 - 06:05 PM, by Alexander Jung, Horand Knaup, Samiha Shafy and Bernhard Zand
World leaders decided in Copenhagen that global warming should be limited to 2 degrees Celsius. Achieving that target, though, would take nothing less than a miracle. With another round of climate negotiations approaching, it is becoming increasingly clear that mankind has failed to address its most daunting problem ...

SPIEGEL Interview with Naomi Klein: 'The Economic System We Have Created Global Warming'
Spiegel English, February 25, 2015 - 06:05 PM. Interview Conducted by Klaus Brinkbaeumer
Can we still stop global warming? Only if we radically change our capitalist system, argues author Naomi Klein. In an interview with SPIEGEL, she explains why the time has come to abandon small steps for a radical new approach. ...


I see: those articles are translations from the current German edition, dealing with GW.
Oh, no Barb, not Naomi Klein. This is a woman with zero education in anything having to do with climate. She never even made it out of college. She hates capitalism. Every ill of the world is caused by capitalism. She wants to dismantle capitalism immediately but she has no coherent plan about what would replace it. It would be some from of vague, Utopian socialism, something envisioned by the Occupy movement, if that gives you an idea of how realistically she thinks. she is a self-hating Jew that has spent most of her life pandering to every Arab movement that would destroy Israel, something she also favors. She's a self-hating Canadian who believes her country is major contributor to every world ill. She obviously hates the United States, the cockpit of every ill the world has ever known. Cuba's OK though, and North Korea is just "misunderstood. Her affection for totalitarian solist countryies like Cuba and NOrth Korea should give one an a=idea of what kind of replacement
Quoting 504. pegleg666:

You must be...on drugs. Warming? You're nuts. Drop the politics and stick to science. Please.


See comment # 265.
Quoting 502. HurricaneHunterJoe:



They may be needed! My reputation precedes me! How are things Lindy?


Things are good, Joe. Had a rough couple of months with the Chikungunya and an accident, but they are all behind me now! Life is great on the island.
How do we know more CO2 is causing warming?


An enhanced greenhouse effect from CO2 has been confirmed by multiple lines of empirical evidence.

Climate Myth...

Increasing CO2 has little to no effect

"While major green house gas H2O substantially warms the Earth, minor green house gases such as CO2 have little effect.... The 6-fold increase in hydrocarbon use since 1940 has had no noticeable effect on atmospheric temperature ... " (Environmental Effects of Increased Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide)

Predicting the Future

Good scientific theories are said to have ‘predictive power’. In other words, armed only with a theory, we should be able to make predictions about a subject. If the theory’s any good, the predictions will come true.

Here’s an example: when the Table of Elements was proposed, many elements were yet to be discovered. Using the theory behind the Periodic Table, the Russian chemist Dmitri Mendeleev was able to predict the properties of germanium, gallium and scandium, despite the fact they hadn’t been discovered.

The effect of adding man-made CO2 is predicted in the theory of greenhouse gases. This theory was first proposed by Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius in 1896, based on earlier work by Fourier and Tyndall. Many scientist have refined the theory in the last century. Nearly all have reached the same conclusion: if we increase the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the Earth will warm up.

What they don’t agree on is by how much. This issue is called ‘climate sensitivity’, the amount the temperatures will increase if CO2 is doubled from pre-industrial levels. Climate models have predicted the least temperature rise would be on average 1.65°C (2.97°F) , but upper estimates vary a lot, averaging 5.2°C (9.36°F). Current best estimates are for a rise of around 3°C (5.4°F), with a likely maximum of 4.5°C (8.1°F).

What Goes Down…

The greenhouse effect works like this: Energy arrives from the sun in the form of visible light and ultraviolet radiation. The Earth then emits some of this energy as infrared radiation. Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere 'capture' some of this heat, then re-emit it in all directions - including back to the Earth's surface.

Through this process, CO2 and other greenhouse gases keep the Earth’s surface 33°Celsius (59.4°F) warmer than it would be without them. We have added 42% more CO2, and temperatures have gone up. There should be some evidence that links CO2 to the temperature rise.

So far, the average global temperature has gone up by about 0.8 degrees C (1.4°F):

"According to an ongoing temperature analysis conducted by scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS)…the average global temperature on Earth has increased by about 0.8°Celsius (1.4°Fahrenheit) since 1880. Two-thirds of the warming has occurred since 1975, at a rate of roughly 0.15-0.20°C per decade."

The temperatures are going up, just like the theory predicted. But where’s the connection with CO2, or other greenhouse gases like methane, ozone or nitrous oxide?

The connection can be found in the spectrum of greenhouse radiation. Using high-resolution FTIR spectroscopy, we can measure the exact wavelengths of long-wave (infrared) radiation reaching the ground.


517. bwi
Quoting 507. LAbonbon:


I think this may actually be the crux of a large part of this issue. Somehow/some way, this became political. Conservative leaders didn't all used to posture on the side of 'I don't believe it'. Some who currently state they don't believe it have flip-flopped. I don't doubt that if it becomes politically expedient to flip to the 'of course it's AGW' side, they will do so. Thing is, they are dragging so many people with them, and muddying the waters for everyone else.

And I don't believe for a second that they all believe what they're saying.

Thing is, AGW will happen whether people believe it's happening or not. Best any of us can do is to try and educate ourselves the best we can.


Follow the money. One fossil fuel interest group alone has pledged to spend $890 million on behalf on conservative politicians in the 2016 election.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/27/us/politics/koc hs-plan-to-spend-900-million-on-2016-campaign.html ?_r=0

Lots of politicians will dance to that much tune, regardless of what they know about science. Also note that some media outlets (especially TV) won't report much on stuff like this, because they want a cut of that money for political ads, an increasingly large share of their ad revenues. When you can throw around nearly a billion dollars per election cycle for political ads, people will bend their values to accommodate the money!

Note, I'm not saying liberal politicians wouldn't bend to money to get elected too, if offered the choice. It's not about morals. But we've got just one party (Koch Industries) that's willing to spend about the same amount as Republicans and Democrats usually raise as a whole for elections -- that leaves a mark. Conservative leaders aren't going to speak out on the dangers of global warming with a billion dollars at stake, so people in conservative areas with conservative media outlets aren't going to hear much about this.
I see lemming's en masse over a cliff.
Little weather report from Europe: This morning it was interesting to watch the visible trace which the jetstream was creating over Eastern Spain when once again digging deep to the South towards Northern Africa. You can see the strip of bright and high clouds develop in the 24h loop below. Before that it pushed a lot of fresh snow onto the Pyrenees (southern France and northern Spain) once again. And of course the coastlines experienced very high waves. Besides that a cut-off low is whirling in the Central Mediterranean, donating thunderstorms and flooding for the *grateful* Italians.







Heavy Snow all Over the World
News, 25 February 2015
Well, not quite, but most of the world’s (or at least the northern hemisphere’s) leading ski regions have been reporting heavy snowfall in recent days.
Ski areas in the Alps, the Rockies and even Scotland have all reported up to three feet/90cm of fresh snow so far this week – and in most places it’s still falling. In the French Pyrenees the resort of Cauterets – pictured above – says it has received 1.2m (four feet) of fresh snow. ...
After the slow start to winter 2015 in some areas, particularly the Alps, it currently looks like the accumulated snow base – which is nearing 5m at some resorts (4.8m at Andermatt in Switzerland and Madesimo in Italy) could allow the season to last longer in to spring – if there’s not a sudden thaw and if resorts feel that business levels warrant running the lifts for longer.
Besides Cauterets, the biggest snowfalls reported include an estimated 1 metre at Glencoe in Scotland, 98cm at Cervinia, 81cm at Avoriaz in the French Alps, 80cm at Telluride in the Colorado Rockies, Gstaad in the Swiss Alps and at Grandvalira in Andorra (Pyrenees). ...


Wintry weather affects most of Spain
Spanish News Today-vor 8 Stunden


Spanish radar showing snow fall in the region of the Pyrenees all day.


(Northern Spain): 25.02.2015: Strong waves produced in Donostia-San Sebastian in the Basque Country where a wave reaches several people including a television camera.

Weather in my place in Germany has been calm and partly sunny today.
It shouldn't be about money. It's absurd. Climate change poses an urgent and very legitimate threat to the functionality of human society, if not all of mankind. Something like that should automatically supersede the petty issues that man drums up. The days of denialism are numbered anyway. Only a matter of time.
Quoting 508. VirginIslandsVisitor:



I've got a great bumper sticker for you if you want, Joe....*lol* (I don't dare say what it says on the blog, but suffice it to say that it's good island humour!)

Lindy


Via mail please
Quoting 513. sar2401:

Oh, no Barb, not Naomi Klein. This is a woman with zero education in anything having to do with climate. She never even made it out of college. She hates capitalism. Every ill of the world is caused by capitalism. She wants to dismantle capitalism immediately but she has no coherent plan about what would replace it. [snip]

Hey, ranting Sar, better take your complains to the editorial staff of "Spiegel" ;-) And I really hope capitalism will be able to prove Naomi Klein wrong and safe us from AGW and its destructive results ...
Quoting 519. washingtonian115:



Such a tease.
Quoting 478. NativeSun:

I don't think people think climate change is a conspiracy, it's just there is so much we don't know about what causes our climate to heat up or cool down. CO2 is a trace gas, yes it is a green house gas, but still a minor gas, and maybe the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is causing some of the warming, but I doubt it is the sole contributor. Methane is another green house gas and this is the one I would be worried about, and their is not a lot we can do about it as humans are not contributing a whole lot to the atmosphere, and there is a lot stored underground and under the oceans. I like it warmer than colder, so I hope for a little climate change on the warm side as the alterative is a whole lot worse for human kind. If we do get another ice age in the near future, we won't have to worry about man made CO2 causing a warming climate as there will probably be a lot less humans on the planet.


Appeal to ignorance is a logical fallacy; and it's not wise to rely on it when the problem is personal ignorance, rather than talking about what is not-yet-known via scientific investigation.

"there is so much we don't know about what causes our climate to heat up or cool down."

If you can balance a checkbook, you can balance Earth's energy budget. The amount of energy arriving vs. the amount of energy leaving the system. Perhaps some of Earth's energy "funds" are getting moved between accounts, but it's not like we can't track those transfers.

"CO2 is a trace gas, yes it is a greenhouse gas, but it is still a minor gas..."

Abundance doesn't necessarily correlate to impact; you're arguing against well-established thermodynamic principles here. Go pick a fight with two centuries of science that have supported physics and chemistry and other natural sciences just fine until now if you like.
Besides, if you're claiming trace constituents can't cause damage, then you won't mind drinking a glass of water with a few ppm arsenic, will you? Or sitting in a room containing 500 ppm of hydrogen sulfide gas?
Quoting 229. Xandra:

From Phys.org:

First direct observation of carbon dioxide's increasing greenhouse effect


The scientists used incredibly precise spectroscopic instruments at two sites operated by the Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility. This research site is on the North Slope of Alaska near the town of Barrow. They also collected data from a site in Oklahoma. Credit: Jonathan Gero

Scientists have observed an increase in carbon dioxide's greenhouse effect at the Earth's surface for the first time. The researchers, led by scientists from the US Department of Energy's Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab), measured atmospheric carbon dioxide's increasing capacity to absorb thermal radiation emitted from the Earth's surface over an eleven-year period at two locations in North America. They attributed this upward trend to rising CO2 levels from fossil fuel emissions.

The influence of atmospheric CO2 on the balance between incoming energy from the Sun and outgoing heat from the Earth (also called the planet's energy balance) is well established. But this effect has not been experimentally confirmed outside the laboratory until now. The research is reported Wednesday, Feb. 25, in the advance online publication of the journal Nature.

The results agree with theoretical predictions of the greenhouse effect due to human activity. The research also provides further confirmation that the calculations used in today's climate models are on track when it comes to representing the impact of CO2.

Read more >>


More information: Nature DOI: 10.1038/nature14240
I don't think this is happening
Quoting 523. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Via mail please


Have to run. End of my day and a cold one is calling. Will drop you a line soon!

*waves bye to everyone*
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:


Oh, the irony...


The Marlbaro man vs. science. That battle lasted for decades.
I need a little global warming here in Indiana, it's been below normal temperatures going on 19 months in a row, last summer it only reached 90 degrees F two times.
It's been 20 to 30 degrees colder then it suppose to be for this time of year.
The increased carbon is making those in the midwest colder!
Quoting 513. sar2401:

Oh, no Barb, not Naomi Klein. This is a woman with zero education in anything having to do with climate. She never even made it out of college. She hates capitalism. Every ill of the world is caused by capitalism. She wants to dismantle capitalism immediately but she has no coherent plan about what would replace it. It would be some from of vague, Utopian socialism, something envisioned by the Occupy movement, if that gives you an idea of how realistically she thinks. she is a self-hating Jew that has spent most of her life pandering to every Arab movement that would destroy Israel, something she also favors. She's a self-hating Canadian who believes her country is major contributor to every world ill. She obviously hates the United States, the cockpit of every ill the world has ever known. Cuba's OK though, and North Korea is just "misunderstood. Her affection for totalitarian solist countryies like Cuba and NOrth Korea should give one an a=idea of what kind of replacement


And this one of the reasons Global Warming is so divisive, there is foolishness on both sides of the political spectrum in response to Global Warming, and sadly, that's the first impression left in people's minds is political extremism much of the time, so many people either become extreme in their response to Global Warming, or would rather not discuss it due to the mess associated with discussing it.

It's too bad we couldn't get people to just come together on the issue, and sadly people often either reject that global warming exists due to being conservative or assume it exists because they are liberal, rather than actually learning about the topic and thinking of ways to deal with the issue reasonably and wisely.
533. bwi
Quoting 528. washingtonian115:

I don't think this is happening



Yikes! Haven't been following this latest system -- those sorts of possibilities, even if just one off-base model -- are a bit of a surprise.
Science still stands while the Marlboro man died of Lung Cancer,

Karma is like dat.

With smokin, cigs are the gun, but time is the trigga'

AGW is not unlike that easily.

Good night folks with another daily-life-story from drought-stricken Sao Paulo. Better some feet of snow than this:

São Paulo – anatomy of a failing megacity: residents struggle as water taps run dry
The Guardian, Claire Rigby in São Paulo, Wednesday 25 February 2015 11.45 GMT
In the first in a series looking at Brazil’s largest city, Claire Rigby reports that many paulistanos are hoarding water in their apartments – and some are even drilling homemade wells – as they prepare for possible rationing ...
Quoting win1gamegiantsplease:


And if the winning number was chosen by someone who accounts for the total?
Oh, that was so cruel. :-) No, we younger men decided that 70 would be the official age for street geezers that would be part of the lottery, knowingly or otherwise. There are 14 of them. Knowing the way models work, I immediately went for the consensus version, being the one in the middle is best. Given my performance picking hurricane numbers, I don't expect this to be any better. It's kind of macabre, but it's better than beating up someone City Hall.
Quoting 467. wilsongti45:

First direct observation of carbon dioxide's increasing greenhouse effect Link

This study is the smoking gun. The first direct confirmation that CO2 tips the radiation balance in earth's atmosphere. Very important study here.
Lets see what the next few observations have to show before we come to any conclusions, after all how long has it been since we really understood the basics of the weather. let alone climate science. We are so young as a species, and have so much to learn, I just hope capitalism doesn't get in the way and cause a warmer world which we can know longer live in.
Quoting 528. washingtonian115:

I don't think this is happening



Good lord, Richmond and Hampton Roads would be crushed.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
239 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ALZ011>015-017>050-262345-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH -CALHOUN-CHEROKEE-
CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-TALLADEGA-
CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILT ON-COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-
CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MO NTGOMERY-MACON-
BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
239 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOW AND SLEET WITH 2 TO 6 INCHES
POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BY TONIGHT. THE GREATEST IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE COUNTIES NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THROUGH
TONIGHT. GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS
SYSTEM...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A TIGHT GRADIENT IN ACCUMULATING
WINTER PRECIPITATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT WILL BE
NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

$$


Wow. Thursday rain chances for Tampa Bay were as high as 70% earlier today. I guess they have a better idea on the path of the low now.
Quoting 524. barbamz:


Hey, ranting Sar, better take your complains to the editorial staff of "Spiegel" ;-) And I really hope capitalism will be able to prove Naomi Klein wrong and safe us from AGW and its destructive results ...


Capitalism can't save anyone from AGW, it's only as good as the people who run it, but it's better than the other forms of government, despite it's many flaws and weaknesses. If we want to ruin the world faster than AGW, letting fear grip us such that we change government and economics too quickly in response to it will ruin the world a lot faster than AGW.

The problem is, large CO2 burning is heavily integrated into the economy of most nations, and it can't just be quickly and easily removed. It's going to take a lot of cooperation and people working together to make smart and wise decisions and solutions for making cleaner energy more desirable and a larger part of the industry.

The U.S. is almost violently divisive on the issue which makes progress on clean energy and solutions particularly difficult here it seems.
Remind me not to send my kids to the great University of Tulane.
Nearby Weather Stations 4pm not bad 32F
Beacon Hill/Lake Saltonstall - Branford, Branford
36.4 °F
DopplerDon.com
36.3 °F
Rock Hill
36.0 °F
New Haven - Criscuolo Park
35.2 °F
Foxon
36.5 °F
East Haven Town Beach
36.4 °F
east haven morgan point
36.0
Quoting barbamz:

Hey, ranting Sar, better take your complains to the editorial staff of "Spiegel" ;-) And I really hope capitalism will be able to prove Naomi Klein wrong and safe us from AGW and its destructive results ...
I don't know what happened there. I was writing a draft, hit the wrong key combination in Chrome, and it disappeared. I didn't realize the key combination actually posted it. I would have made it less of a rant when I was done editing. However, the basic premise is still correct, Naomi Klein has only one purpose in life, and it's to destroy capitalism. Climate change is just her latest route to accomplish her goal.
Torcon of 3 for the Florida Panhandle and Southern Ga dropping down into central Florida tonight and tomorrow morning.
Quoting 544. sar2401:

I don't know what happened there. I was writing a draft, hit the wrong key combination in Chrome, and it disappeared. I didn't realize the key combination actually posted it. I would have made it less of a rant when I was done editing. However, the basic premise is still correct, Naomi Klein has only one purpose in life, and it's to destroy capitalism. Climate change is just her latest route to accomplish her goal.


Looks like solid rains for you today. What's your total at?
Quoting 500. SouthTampa:

I am a published author in my field (pharmacy). I know how much effort it takes to do scientific research. Sure it's easy to copy info, but is it easy to understand what you are copying? Some folks have made it patently clear that they lack the critical thinking skills to comprehend what they are reading and that is evidenced through their posts.
I doubt the way people post relates to the knowledge or lack of, a certain subject. It takes a heck of a lot more time and effort to write a paper on a certain subject and is far more time intensive then most people are willing to spend on a blog, especially when their ideas will never really matter. What ever is causing the climate to change, good or bad, depending on your view, will all come out in the wash. Eventually we as a species will have the knowledge and hopefully be able to help resolve the problem, because if capitalism is one of the major causes of a warmer world, then we better buy some ocean front property in the foothills of North Carolina.

The Iñupiaqvillage of Kivalina remains torn between tradition and a deeply uncertain future.

The remote Alaskan village that needs to be relocated due to climate change

By Chris Mooney February 24


KIVALINA, ALASKA — This tiny and isolated town of 400 cannot be reached by road. It lies on a fragile barrier island along the Chukchi Sea, 83 miles above the Arctic circle. And for generations, the Iñupiat people of the region have hunted gigantic bowhead whales from camps atop the sea ice that stretches out from the town’s icy shores.

But in recent years, climate change has thinned the ice so much that it has become too dangerous to hunt the whales. Soon, the U.S. government says, it may be too dangerous to live here at all, with less sea ice to protect the barrier island from powerful waves that wash across the village.

“Global warming has caused us so much problems,” said Joseph Swan, Sr., a Kivalina elder, at a town meeting last week. The ice “does not freeze like it used to. It used to be like 10 to 8 feet thick, way out in the ocean.”

alaskaclimate-2300

The question now facing the town, the state of Alaska, and the nation is whether to move the people of Kivalina to a safer location nearby, either inland or further down the coast — and who would pay upwards of a hundred million dollars to do it. It’s a question already facing Kivalina and a handful of other native Alaskan villages, and in the coming decades could apply to numerous other towns along U.S. coastlines. Here, climate change is less a future threat and more a daily force, felt in drastic changes to weather, loss of traditional means of sustenance like whale hunting, and the literal vanishing of land.

“We have a whole bunch of infrastructure that we need to move, that the government should be moving themselves,” said Colleen Swan, who sits on the City Council and also works in disaster preparedness for the community. “I would like to live without having to worry about having to evacuate, or having to run.”

The role the U.S. government will play is still an open question. Interior secretary Sally Jewell came to Kivalina last week to highlight the problems facing the town, and President Obama has proposed $50.4 million in federal spending to help Native American communities grapple with climate change. Yet that is less than half of what’s estimated to be needed to relocate Kivalina alone.

Congress, controlled by Republicans skeptical of federal spending and interventions to stem climate change, may not approve even that. While it is not clear how congressional Republicans will respond to this budget request, in the past they have objected to climate-related initiatives, for instance the administration’s recent pledge to spend up to $3 billion to help other nations adapt to climate change.

“The President’s climate change agenda has only siphoned precious taxpayer dollars away from the real problems facing the American people,” said Sen. James M. Inhofe (R-Okl.) late last year.
Quoting sar2401:
Oh, no Barb, not Naomi Klein. This is a woman with zero education in anything having to do with climate. She never even made it out of college. She hates capitalism. Every ill of the world is caused by capitalism. She wants to dismantle capitalism immediately but she has no coherent plan about what would replace it. It would be some from of vague, Utopian socialism, something envisioned by the Occupy movement, if that gives you an idea of how realistically she thinks. she is a self-hating Jew that has spent most of her life pandering to every Arab movement that would destroy Israel, something she also favors. She's a self-hating Canadian who believes her country is major contributor to every world ill. She obviously hates the United States, the cockpit of every ill the world has ever known. Cuba's OK though, and North Korea is just "misunderstood. Her affection for totalitarian solist countryies like Cuba and NOrth Korea should give one an a=idea of what kind of replacement
It's okay to hold opinions about others, but you've said some pretty slanderous--almost bigoted--things about Klein. She doesn't "hate" capitalism; she simply sees, as so many others do, that it's far from a perfect system. (And, FWIW, realizing that Netanyahu is a warmongerer does not make one a "self-hating Jew".)

Shorter: calm down, would you? Thanks! ;-)



look at all his rain in the south and some snow to
Way off topic.....

Find the #1 Song on the Day You Were Born

Note: May not work for Gro
Quoting 540. tampabaymatt:



Wow. Thursday rain chances for Tampa Bay were as high as 70% earlier today. I guess they have a better idea on the path of the low now.


NWS still has 70% overnight but did drop it a bit to 50-60% am rains as the models are clearing it through faster now so rainfall amounts are probably not going to be as high due to the faster speed.

Also, models went overkill I think with the impressiveness of this event, the entire system is looking a bit more meager than model forecasts suggested. With temps only in the 50's and instability that is virtually non-existent. I really don't know why the SPC has Tallahassee in a slight risk, sure shear and upper support are strong, but even now, the upper support doesn't seem to be doing it's job too well so far, and even if it does ramp up. We've had way too many SPC slight risk events like this where shear and upper level energy look great but the instability is just too weak to support anything serious. I am pretty confident we won't see anything severe, but I would think a couple strong or isolated severe cells could impact areas right along the coast if any strong convection can get going later.

I guess the SPC feels like it's better to be safe than sorry just in case an area of local instability were to be utilized unexpectedly, because it wouldn't take much to get strong activity going, it just seems unlikely.


Seems to me though that bay news 9 rain chances are looking a little too low compared to the NWS.


South Radar and Current Temperatures
Quoting 465. Phaselinear:

(snip)The only thing man can do to clean up the planet is not to pollute it, and that's it.
BINGO! Carbon dioxide emissions from cars, trucks, trains, and power plants are pollution. That pollution is causing the anomalous warming of Planet Earth, and we need to clean up the planet by not polluting it! You hit the nail squarely on the head.
Did you see the video on TWC where the Mayor of Atlanta said that TWC said that there was a 100% chance of snow for Atlanta so they shut down government business this afternoon, etc.

TWC meteorologist said "did we really say 100% chance?"
He's going to explain it in a minute.
Quoting 552. Jedkins01:



NWS still have 70% overnight but the models are clearing it through faster now so rainfall amounts are probably not going to be as high due to the faster speed.

Also, models overdid the impressiveness of this whole in general, the entire system is looking a lot more meager than model forecasts suggested. With temps only in the 50's and instability that is virtually non-existent. I really don't know why the SPC has Tallahassee in a slight risk, sure shear and upper support are strong, but even now, the upper support doesn't seem to be doing it's job too well so far, and even if it does ramp up. We've had way too many SPC slight risk events like this where shear and upper level energy look great but the instability is just too weak to support anything serious. I am pretty confident we won't see anything severe, but I would think a couple strong or isolated severe cells could impact areas right along the coast if any strong convection can get going later.

I guess the SPC feels like it's better to be safe than sorry just in case an area of local instability were to be utilized unexpectedly, because it wouldn't take much to get strong activity going, it just seems unlikely.


Seems to me though that bay news 9 rain chances are looking a little too low compared to the NWS.


The NWS is calling for the possibility of severe thunderstorms tonight in Citrus and Hernando counties.

I%u2019m a big fan of Bay News 9. But, their chance of rain percentage forecasts have been extremely poor so far during the dry season. I%u2019m not sure what their methodology is for assigning it. During the summer, they are very upfront about it, and state that the percent chance of rain is tantamount to the percent of the Tampa Bay area that will be affected by summer thunderstorms. However they do it during the dry season is beyond me. For some of these recent rain events, models were all in agreement that C FL would get rained on, and Bay News 9 would show 70% even up to the morning of. If models are all in agreement, why 70%, just make it 100%? I%u2019ve been pretty disappointed with however they are doing this during the non-thunderstorm season.
Winter Storm Remus: Wintry Mess Across South, Snow for Midwest (FORECAST)
Published Feb 25 2015 02:05 PM EST

How Much Snow?
South, East:

Our forecast map below shows a stripe of accumulating snow from north Texas, southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana to northern Mississippi, northern Alabama, southern and east Tennessee, northern Georgia, Upstate South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia, Maryland and the Delmarva peninsula. Within this roughly 1,300 mile-long swath of snow, a few areas could pick up over 6 inches of total snowfall.
There will be a sharp cutoff on the southern side of the accumulating snow swath where amounts may range from very little to a few inches in a short distance. This sharp cutoff will be very near parts of the Birmingham and Atlanta metro areas.



6 to 12 inches of snow!
37 degrees in Atlanta.
TWC says "no accumulations for Atlanta."
Quoting 551. nrtiwlnvragn:

Way off topic.....

Find the #1 Song on the Day You Were Born

Note: May not work for Gro

Link
Quoting 541. Jedkins01:



Capitalism can't save anyone from AGW, it's only as good as the people who run it, but it's better than the other forms of government, despite it's many flaws and weaknesses. (snip)
You have stated the truth -- but the truth is, in this case revealing. Capitalism is not truly a form of government, it is an economic system, but capitalism has taken over the US government and that, I think, is creating a lot of the perceived problems, including refusal to limit capitalist hegemony and the consequent environmental damage. Democracy does not equal capitalism, nor vice versa. (end of rant)
Quoting 465. Phaselinear:

"It's the Sun stupid"...so says the bumper sticker. I read several articles over the years on this subject, and a couple stood out. Why are the other planets warming too, but have no HUMAN footprint on them to cause a sudden shift in temperatures? The Sun is a cyclic entity, and has it's moments too. There is nothing we can do about it. The only thing man can do to clean up the planet is not to pollute it, and that's it.


Were some of those articles that "stood out" authored by a man named Soon? Post denier-gate it is hard to believe anyone would seriously bring "the sun" thing up in regards to recent warming. I am aware of the 11 year solar cycle, but beyond that I don't think there is evidence of a longer term "cycle". (I could be wrong) If there is what causes it and what is the empirical evidence? I think just throwing out the world "cycle" without identifying it and explaining it is worthless.
TWC again showed a clip of the Mayor of Atlanta's speech, but this time they left off the part where he said that TWC forecast a 100% chance of snow for the city.

I find if very interesting. The Mayor made it seem as if his decisions were based on TWC's 100% prediction of snow.

Government officials stop using the National Weather Service?

Quoting 556. tampabaymatt:



The NWS is calling for the possibility of severe thunderstorms tonight in Citrus and Hernando counties.

I’m a big fan of Bay News 9. But, their chance of rain percentage forecasts have been extremely poor so far during the dry season. I’m not sure what their methodology is for assigning it. During the summer, they are very upfront about it, and state that the percent chance of rain is tantamount to the percent of the Tampa Bay area that will be affected by summer thunderstorms. However they do it during the dry season is beyond me. For some of these recent rain events, models were all in agreement that C FL would get rained on, and Bay News 9 would show 70% even up to the day before. If models are all in agreement, why 70%, just make it 100%? I’ve been pretty disappointed with however they are doing this during the non-thunderstorm season.


Interesting, I don't really know for sure, but I suspect it might be that because it's not the rainy season that heavy rain isn't given as much attention.

It's funny how often I see people get shocked about heavy rain this time of year, but when you actually think about what the average rain is during these months, it's actually not that bad, it's just dry relative to the overall climate and relative to the rainy season. However, the many of the monthly rain averages during the dry season is pretty normal for a monthly rainfall average in many temperate climates. And if you did up the record books, there have been plenty of heavy rain events in the winter and spring over year, it's just rainfalls isn't nearly as consistently plentiful. It's the result of relying on jet stream patterns, which are very variable for rainfall, unlike tropical seasonal rains that we get in the rainy season which more reliably leads to a rainy month.
Quoting 562. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Link


Link
Quoting 563. CaneFreeCR:

You have stated the truth -- but the truth is, in this case revealing. Capitalism is not truly a form of government, it is an economic system, but capitalism has taken over the US government and that, I think, is creating a lot of the perceived problems, including refusal to limit capitalist hegemony and the consequent environmental damage. Democracy does not equal capitalism, nor vice versa. (end of rant)



You're right actually, capitalism is an economic system and I was wrong for calling it a form of government lol, and in fact has replaced government too much so, such that both the conservatives and liberals are known for heavily being involved in policies influenced by corporate America in this time.

Capitalism is a great form of economics, but shouldn't run and dictate what the government does, which is dangerous.

Now technically, the U.S. is a constitutional republic, which is a form of democracy, since true democracy can be a bit unstable.
Quoting 522. wxgeek723:

It shouldn't be about money. It's absurd. Climate change poses an urgent and very legitimate threat to the functionality of human society, if not all of mankind. Something like that should automatically supersede the petty issues that man drums up. The days of denialism are numbered anyway. Only a matter of time.



I can't remember where I heard it, but the saying is "If you think the economy is more important than the environment, try holding your breath while you count your money".
Back to you guys in the studio

Quoting 551. nrtiwlnvragn:

Way off topic.....

Find the #1 Song on the Day You Were Born

Note: May not work for Gro

Since we're sharing :)
Quoting 531. trunkmonkey:

I need a little global warming here in Indiana, it's been below normal temperatures going on 19 months in a row, last summer it only reached 90 degrees F two times.
It's been 20 to 30 degrees colder then it suppose to be for this time of year.
The increased carbon is making those in the midwest colder!


I am assuming that was a joke and you know the difference between below normal in Indiana and global warming. Although I wonder if your previous comparison of NAZI Germany to this blog was a joke also.
Quoting 569. wartsttocs:



I can't remember where I heard it, but the saying is "If you think the economy is more important than the environment, try holding your breath while you count your money".

Wow! Unfortunately, the ethos since the Industrial Revolution has been that the economy most definitely IS more important than the environment. After all, if you've got enough money, you can live upsteam of the discharge pipe and upwind of the smoke stacks

Quoting 526. schistkicker:
.
Besides, if you're claiming trace constituents can't cause damage, then you won't mind drinking a glass of water with a few ppm arsenic, will you? Or sitting in a room containing 500 ppm of hydrogen sulfide gas?

Was going to comment earlier, you can ask all the older workers that worked in coke plants about "trace" amounts of benzene, except a lot of them died of cancer. Having worked in the steel industry "trace" amounts can definitely harmful.
Quoting 573. ACSeattle:


Wow! Unfortunately, the ethos since the Industrial Revolution has been that the economy most definitely IS more important than the environment. After all, if you've got enough money, you can live upsteam of the discharge pipe and upwind of the smoke stacks




Well you aren't doing anything about the environment with a bad economy so... I guess it is more important.
Quoting 572. wartsttocs:



I am assuming that was a joke and you know the difference between below normal in Indiana and global warming. Although I wonder if your previous comparison of NAZI Germany to this blog was a joke also.
Quoting 572. wartsttocs:



I am assuming that was a joke and you know the difference between below normal in Indiana and global warming. Although I wonder if your previous comparison of NAZI Germany to this blog was a joke also.

This isn't the first time he's posted this. He's had the west coast "Rediculously Resilient Ridge" and the resulting ongoing drought and downstream trough called to his attention, as if that should be necessary on this site, obviously to no avail. The next time we hear from this under a bridge dweller, I'm sure it will be something similarly insightful
Quoting Jedkins01:


Capitalism can't save anyone from AGW, it's only as good as the people who run it, but it's better than the other forms of government, despite it's many flaws and weaknesses. If we want to ruin the world faster than AGW, letting fear grip us such that we change government and economics too quickly in response to it will ruin the world a lot faster than AGW.

The problem is, large CO2 burning is heavily integrated into the economy of most nations, and it can't just be quickly and easily removed. It's going to take a lot of cooperation and people working together to make smart and wise decisions.
Jed, do you drive a car? How's the gas mileage? I'm guessing pretty good. Any idea of how much emissions it puts out? I'm guessing you could wrap your lips around the tail pipe and never keel over from the CO. My first new car was a 1965 Chevelle. Terrible car. It went 0 to 60 in about an hour, but I bought it because it was an "economy" car. It got 16 mpg highway and 14 city, which was amazingly good then. A combination of political crises, inflation, and gas shortages made people clamor for cars with good mileage. Detroit, wanting to make money, had to make cars that people wanted. Government regulations made sure the rules about fuel economy and pollution control applied to every car company. That's what happens with mixed-market capitalism. People got what they wanted, the demand for oil began to decrease, and the air, even in LA, started to get cleaner. The auto companies made money and the auto workers made money, All in all, it was a pretty good outcome.

Any idea what kind of car was being built in the Soviet Union to sell to the public? Pictured below is a spanking new 1966 GAZ-21. If you know anything about old cars, you can see it's a poorly done reverse engineering job from a 1949 Studebaker. It got about 10 mpg overall.The diesel model wasn't so bad - you got 12 mpg with it. It was the first Soviet car with both a radio and a heater. If you wanted one, you ordered it from the state Automobile Bureau. No easy payment plan. No choice of colors. You just order a car. You paid for the entire thing upfront. It cost about USD $23,000. Of course, this assume you got state approval to buy a car. The Gaz-21 was one of the dirtiest gasoline cars ever produced, beaten only by the infamous East German Trabant. Once you paid, you waited. Usually for a year and sometimes as much as three years. It usually didn't run right when you got it, if it ran at all, so the Gaz spent the first couple of months at the factory fixing production flaws.

I'll leave it to any consumer to decide which economy works better. Not perfect, just better.

Quoting 531. trunkmonkey:

I need a little global warming here in Indiana, it's been below normal temperatures going on 19 months in a row, last summer it only reached 90 degrees F two times.
It's been 20 to 30 degrees colder then it suppose to be for this time of year.
The increased carbon is making those in the midwest colder!


Indiana has trended warmer by about 0.26 C / 0.47 F per decade since 1960.
Made it above freezing again in S C IL, forecast yesterday only showed upper 20s. Heard on radio that StL made it all the way to 45. Light easterly winds that earlier had a little SE bias now have a NE bias. Pressure has been pretty steady just below 29.9". Sunshine we had earlier has given way to clouds. Looks like the snow approaching from the NW has crossed the IL River - have any accumulation wabit? Keep lowering the forecast temp for Sun., so looking more like that will be an all snow event. Long range has more precip starting Mon night as snow, changing to rain on Tues. After lull in Dec. & Jan., we're closing in on 2' for the winter, if not there already.
Hey Sar, there are a couple more civil emergency messages for alabama. Funny how they issue them every time it snows down there.


Civil Emergency MessageALC019-055-261200- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE ALABAMA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY CLANTON ALABAMA RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 308 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015 THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE ALABAMA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY CLANTON ALABAMA AND INDIVIDUAL COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES. THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES ARE IMPACTED BY WINTER WEATHER...ETOWAH...CHEROKEE. NUMEROUS ROADWAYS...INCLUDING SOME MAJOR HIGHWAYS...ARE HAZARDOUS DUE TO SNOW. SOME OF THESE ROADWAYS HAVE BECOME IMPASSABLE. THESE CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. THESE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES REQUEST THAT TRAVEL BE LIMITED TO EMERGENCIES ONLY FOR YOUR SAFETY AND THE SAFETY OF FIRST RESPONDERS. $$ALC009-075-093-127-261200- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED CIVIL EMERGENCY MESSAGE ALABAMA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY CLANTON ALABAMA RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 231 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015 THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE ALABAMA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY CLANTON ALABAMA AND INDIVIDUAL COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES. THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES ARE IMPACTED BY WINTER WEATHER...BLOUNT...LAMAR...MARION...WALKER. NUMEROUS ROADWAYS...INCLUDING SOME MAJOR HIGHWAYS...ARE HAZARDOUS DUE TO SNOW. SOME OF THESE ROADWAYS HAVE BECOME IMPASSABLE. THESE CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. THESE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES REQUEST THAT TRAVEL BE LIMITED TO EMERGENCIES ONLY FOR YOUR SAFETY AND THE SAFETY OF FIRST RESPONDERS. $$
Quoting 579. dabirds:

Made it above freezing again in S C IL, forecast yesterday only showed upper 20s. Heard on radio that StL made it all the way to 45. Light easterly winds that earlier had a little SE bias now have a NE bias. Pressure has been pretty steady just below 29.9". Sunshine we had earlier has given way to clouds. Looks like the snow approaching from the NW has crossed the IL River - have any accumulation wabit? Keep lowering the forecast temp for Sun., so looking more like that will be an all snow event. Long range has more precip starting Mon night as snow, changing to rain on Tues. After lull in Dec. & Jan., we're closing in on 2' for the winter, if not there already.



It hit around 43 in STL (at least on my weather station). It melted most of the remaining snow here. With this next clipper, i could see 1-2 additional inches of snow.
yea it might be alittle warmer than in the past but there also is a heck of alot more concrete around. hum
Quoting 570. Patrap:

Back to you guys in the studio


he will be back reporting the next storm again
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0099 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0343 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL FL PANHANDLE CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 252143Z - 252345Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...SURFACE-BASED TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AMIDST WIND FIELDS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. AS SUCH...A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND EVEN A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. DISCUSSION...AIRMASS S OF THE FL PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO MODIFY AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW -- CURRENTLY CENTERED ABOUT 70 MI SSE OF MOB -- APPROACHES. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ENEWD INTO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE WITH THE WARM SECTOR SUBSEQUENTLY MOVING INTO THE CNTRL AND ERN FL PANHANDLE. THIS WARM SECTOR IS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION AROUND 00Z. MATURING CYCLONE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY VERTICALLY-STACKED...ENHANCING MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 0-1 KM SRH VALUES AROUND 500 M2/S2 AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR TOPPING 80 KTS. THIS KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND EVEN A TORNADO OR TWO. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR IS THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING JUST HOW FAR INLAND THE WARM SECTOR MAKES IT BEFORE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TROUGH. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. ..MOSIER/HART/GRAMS.. 02/25/2015

Quoting 577. sar2401:

Jed, do you drive a car? How's the gas mileage? I'm guessing pretty good. Any idea of how much emissions it puts out? I'm guessing you could wrap your lips around the tail pipe and never keel over from the CO. My first new car was a 1965 Chevelle. Terrible car. It went 0 to 60 in about an hour, but I bought it because it was an "economy" car. It got 16 mpg highway and 14 city, which was amazingly good then. A combination of political crises, inflation, and gas shortages made people clamor for cars with good mileage. Detroit, wanting to make money, had to make cars that people wanted. Government regulations made sure the rules about fuel economy and pollution control applied to every car company. That's what happens with mixed-market capitalism. People got what they wanted, the demand for oil began to decrease, and the air, even in LA, started to get cleaner. The auto companies made money and the auto workers made money, All in all, it was a pretty good outcome.

Any idea what kind of car was being built in the Soviet Union to sell to the public? Pictured below is a spanking new 1966 GAZ-21. If you know anything about old cars, you can see it's a poorly done reverse engineering job from a 1949 Studebaker. It got about 10 mpg overall.The diesel model wasn't so bad - you got 12 mpg with it. It was the first Soviet car with both a radio and a heater. If you wanted one, you ordered it from the state Automobile Bureau. No easy payment plan. No choice of colors. You just order a car. You paid for the entire thing upfront. It cost about USD $23,000. Of course, this assume you got state approval to buy a car. The Gaz-21 was one of the dirtiest gasoline cars ever produced, beaten only by the infamous East German Trabant. Once you paid, you waited. Usually for a year and sometimes as much as three years. It usually didn't run right when you got it, if it ran at all, so the Gaz spent the first couple of months at the factory fixing production flaws.

I'll leave it to any consumer to decide which economy works better. Not perfect, just better.



I am delurking, uh oh.

Don't overlook this very important part of Jedkins' comment: "...it's only as good as the people who run it, but it's better than the other forms of government, despite it's many flaws and weaknesses"

I agree with that, capitalism without moderation is not healthy, nor sustainable, and not only in the ecological sense, economically too. Seems to me he wasn't bashing capitalism, he was critiquing it.

Closer to normal temps which are 68/45, today 71.8/48.4
but back on the high side. Last 4 days were in the 60's....
Quoting 562. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Link


I was seven or eight when that came out (I think). BIG died in 1997 and that song was written about that.

Mine was a Color Me Badd song, thought it would be something by Whitney Houston or some awful power ballad.
We?

LoL
Super, super post. This has to be bookmarked for future reference.

And speaking of warming trends, there's not much about Nassau wx today to suggest we had temps in the 50s just last week. Today's high was 82...
Quoting 589. wormuths:

I'm still waiting for the imminent ice age we were being promised in the 1970's. This 'science' of global warming is far from settled, and we need to stop treating it as if it were fact.


In the 1970's a small minority of climate scientists were predicting the possibility of a global cooling because of the cooling effect of a certain type of aerosol pollution, if that pollution were to continue to increase. That pollution was reduced for other reasons (such as acid rain), after which those climate scientists joined the majority in predicting a global warming.

I would be interested in seeing your source for "the imminent ice age we were being promised in the 1970's". ("Promised" and "imminent" are fairly strong words.)
...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SERN AL AND THE FL
PANHANDLE INTO SRN GA/NRN FL...

...SUMMARY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR ISOLATED
TORNADOES COULD OCCUR TONIGHT WITHIN A SMALL CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND
ADJACENT/NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

...DISCUSSION...
LITTLE ADJUSTMENT APPEARS NECESSARY TO THE ONGOING FORECAST
ATTM...AS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM A N CENTRAL GULF SURFACE
LOW CONTINUES GRADUAL NWD MOVEMENT TOWARD THE FL PANHANDLE COAST.
ONSHORE ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT -- AND THE ASSOCIATED MORE
UNSTABLE/HIGHER THETA-E BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE GULF -- IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR ONLY IN A BRIEF WINDOW OF TIME/SPACE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD
EXHIBITING SUBSTANTIAL VEERING/STRENGTHENING WITH HEIGHT ACROSS THIS
REGION...THE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT REMAINS QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF
LOW-LEVEL ROTATION /AND ASSOCIATED TORNADO POTENTIAL/ WITH ANY
SURFACE- OR NEAR-SURFACE-BASED STORM. THUS -- WILL MAINTAIN THE
ONGOING 5% TORNADO/SLIGHT RISK AREAS THIS FORECAST.

..GOSS.. 02/25/2015
Quoting 589. wormuths:

I'm still waiting for the imminent ice age we were being promised in the 1970's. This 'science' of global warming is far from settled, and we need to stop treating it as if it were fact.


The neat thing is, an assertion like this is testable-- there are any number of keyword-searchable archives of both modern and past peer-reviewed journals in the natural sciences. Go look up what the level of consensus is. You can look at what the active climate scientists were saying back in the 1960's and 1970's, and decide what was being 'promised' by whom.

One problem-- the work I've just described has already been done, so it won't be a novel result; even worse for your argument, the published result debunks your drive-by denialism. But you can easily confirm the result independently if you don't trust the study for whatever reason.

Link to Peterson et al. 2008 PDF: Link
EDIT: removed duplicate comment

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY MORNING...

SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THIS EVENING...AT TIMES MIXED
WITH SLEET. SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS
OVER 6 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. A MIX OF SLEET...SNOW
AND RAIN ARE POSSIBLE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTA METRO
COUNTIES. PLEASE REFER TO THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND OTHER
MESSAGES ON NOAA WEATHER RADIO...WEATHER DOT GOV OR OUR MESSAGES
ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS WINTER STORM.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
GEORGIA. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING.

BLACK ICE WILL ALSO BE LIKELY OVER NORTH GEORGIA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

BLACK ICE WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUIRED BUT OBSERVERS ARE STRONGLY
ENCOURAGED TO SUBMIT SNOW AMOUNTS AND ROAD CONDITIONS ON THE WEB
AT WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA OR WITH TWITTER USING THE GAWX HASHTAG OR
TAGGING AT NWS ATLANTA.

$$
Quoting 537. NativeSun:

Lets see what the next few observations have to show before we come to any conclusions, after all how long has it been since we really understood the basics of the weather. let alone climate science. We are so young as a species, and have so much to learn, I just hope capitalism doesn't get in the way and cause a warmer world which we can know longer live in.

" Lets see what the next few observations have to show before we come to any conclusions"
It has been a decade already. Two different locations.
" after all how long has it been since we really understood the basics of the weather"
If you mean the basics of thermodynamics and fluid mechanics, since the 19th century. We fully understand the physics which comprises weather. Having enough data and being able to do all the calculations is a different story.
" let alone climate science"
Same scientific principles
"We are so young as a species, and have so much to learn"
Very true. However, this is the part we do know. Please if there is a scientific principle that influences weather that is unknown, please call it to my attention.
"I just hope capitalism doesn't get in the way and cause a warmer world which we can know longer live in"
Capitalism has nothing to do with this.

Sorry for being critical...

Oh....... the "ice age in the seventies"........ Got anything better than that?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XB3S0fnOr0M
Isn't Jedkins from Tallahassee? If so, he's got a tornado watch, though there's only a chance of isolated tornadoes though there's a good amount of shear.


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 4 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 635 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE SOUTHWEST GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS * EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM 635 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA TO 35 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. && DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035. ...MEAD
Quoting 590. jrweatherman:



You are correct
Quoting 589. wormuths:

I'm still waiting for the imminent ice age we were being promised in the 1970's. This 'science' of global warming is far from settled, and we need to stop treating it as if it were fact.
Quoting 465. Phaselinear:

"It's the Sun stupid"...so says the bumper sticker. I read several articles over the years on this subject, and a couple stood out. Why are the other planets warming too, but have no HUMAN footprint on them to cause a sudden shift in temperatures? The Sun is a cyclic entity, and has it's moments too. There is nothing we can do about it. The only thing man can do to clean up the planet is not to pollute it, and that's it.


Wow at the idiocracy that has taken place in this blog the past 2 days. Some of you people don't have respect and should just log out and actually go learn some manners. I have never seen a science blog trashed as much as this one from people who have disrespected those who have worked hard and tireless hours to research into climate science and get a degree in the same field or similar such as Dr. Masters himself. Some of you people should be ashamed. If only I knew some of you people I think I would have no choice but to put you in your place. It does no good in shouting at a wall though. Yes, certainly you can disagree with climate science and the topic of Global Warming or be uncertain about the processes that adhere to it, such as Opal92, but please for the love of humanity can we stop with the constant trolling, spamming of one liners that not only is way out in left field, but is completely rude and disrespectful. Show some respect and disagree if you have to in a civil way. The way some of you newcomers act it is like in an Elementary School classroom. So sick and tired of this blog being trashed almost to the point I am wishing this hurricane season can come soon enough. I can deal with the hurricane season trolls, but not the ones that come here trying to debunk a sound science.
Ones ignorance is NOT equal to another's learned knowledge and a Body of Science.

Always.

Pass the tabasco please?

Quoting 597. GeoffreyWPB:

What were climate scientists predicting in the 1970s?




I wonder if any were predicting that we would have the ability to debunk nonsense claims in seconds using only our hand and pointer finger.

Give that man a Nobel!

Edited, because I typed too fast. No scientist has invented the cure for stupid fingers.
Quoting 604. Naga5000:



I wonder if any were predicting that we would have the ability to debunk nonsense claims in seconds using only our hand and pointer finger.

Give that man a Noble!


A noble what?
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
No recent severe warnings.
Quoting 606. VAbeachhurricanes:



A noble what?
I think he meant an Ignobel.
Quoting 603. Patrap:

Ones ignorance is NOT equal to another's learned knowledge and a Body of Science.

Always.

Pass the tabasco please?




Sounds like something from Isaac Asimov with hot sauce on top! smiley face
Quoting 606. VAbeachhurricanes:



A noble what?


Sorry, a slip up. Should have read Nobel as in a Nobel prize to the guy who invented the computer mouse. :)
Quoting 605. Patrap:


Veering wind profile, shear aloft, and a little bit of CAPE.

Quoting 611. wartsttocs:



Sounds like something from Isaac Asimov with hot sauce on top! smiley face

Asimov had some gems.

"Anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that 'my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge'."

or

"The saddest aspect of life right now is that science gathers knowledge faster than society gathers wisdom."
Quoting 604. Naga5000:



I wonder if any were predicting that we would have the ability to debunk nonsense claims in seconds using only our hand and pointer finger.

Give that man a Nobel!

Edited, because I typed too fast. No scientist has invented the cure for stupid fingers.


Alex, this is my daily double and the question is: who is Arthur C. Clarke?

http://climatecrocks.com/2015/02/07/arthur-c-clar ke-isaac-asimov-science-fiction-giants-clear-views -of-the-future/

NWS just upped snowfall totals for Atlanta, find that a wee bit strange. I guess they are viewing something I don't have access to. Calling for 2-4 inches in Atlanta proper tonight. Very cold rain atm. Anyone have an idea why they upped snow totals?

Edit: They have it at 3-5 inches now... can't be right.
Quoting 601. TimTheWxMan:

Isn't Jedkins from Tallahassee? If so, he's got a tornado watch, though there's only a chance of isolated tornadoes though there's a good amount of shear.


URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 4 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 635 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE SOUTHWEST GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS * EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM 635 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA TO 35 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF VALDOSTA GEORGIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. && DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035. ...MEAD


I'm from the Tampa Bay area , but I go to school in Tallahassee!
Quoting 604. Naga5000:



I wonder if any were predicting that we would have the ability to debunk nonsense claims in seconds using only our hand and pointer finger.

Give that man a Nobel!

Edited, because I typed too fast. No scientist has invented the cure for stupid fingers.

Time magazines fault not the scientist's for correctly pointing out that aerosols can cause a negative radiation balance. How many times does the media misrepresent the conclusions of science? C'mon now. Argue about something with substance like the feedback of cloud formation. Then we can have a productive debate.
Quoting 616. jocapo:

the ice cap in the arctic is growing, the ice cap in the antarctic is growing. this does not happen when warmer climate prevails.

Classic, Epic post.

Good Grief !

sigh.....
Quoting 617. hurricanehunter27:

NWS just upped snowfall totals for Atlanta, find that a wee bit strange. I guess they are viewing something I don't have access to. Calling for 2-4 inches in Atlanta proper tonight. Very cold rain atm. Anyone have an idea why they upped snow totals?

Here's their AFD:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
643 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN AS THIS NO LONGER APPEARS TO
BE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS NORTH GA. ALSO...HAVE ADDED ISOLATED
THUNDER TO PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA AS INSTABILITY HAS MOVED INTO
THIS AREA ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED
AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
0.4 TO 6+ INCHES OF SNOW STILL EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH GA MAINLY
NORTH OF CEDARTOWN TO GAINESVILLE LINE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM... RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET MIXED WITH SNOW MOVING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST RIGHT NOW. TEMPS ACROSS NORTH GA ARE RANGING FROM
33 TO 36 DEGREES AND SLOWLY FALLING AS THE PRECIP MOVES THROUGH.
THINGS ARE STILL SHAPING UP FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS STILL PRETTY
HIGH IN THE GENERAL TREND OF THE EVENT...BUT TEMPS ARE FALLING A BIT
SLOWER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. LOOKS LIKE THE ACCUMULATING SNOW
WILL BEGIN IN A FEW HOURS AS THE RAIN COOLED AIR HAS TIME TO GET
DOWN TO OR BELOW FREEZING. MAIN LOW CENTER FROM THIS SYSTEM IN ALONG
THE LA GULF COAST AND IT WILL CONTINUE MOVING NE TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH THROUGH 12-18Z THU. THIS LOW CENTER HAS AN ABUNDANT
AMOUNT OF GULF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND WILL PUSH IT ACROSS
GA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. OVERALL...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO
PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED FORECAST AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. MODELS ARE
STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON OVERALL
PRECIPITATION. QPF IS HIGHEST CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA MAY SEE UP TO 1.5
INCHES OF RAIN. PRECIPITATION BEGINS MOVING OUT BETWEEN 00Z-06Z WITH
DRY SLOTTING PUSHING INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA SOUTH OF THE DEFORMATION
ZONES SETTING UP ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. AS THIS SURFACE LOW PUSHES
ACROSS THE SERN U.S. THERE ARE SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG THE
GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN AL/GA. INSTABILITIES ARE WEAK ACROSS OUR
AREA BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR 2
ESPECIALLY AREAS SOUTH OF A CSG TO MCN LINE. HAVE NOT ADDED ANY
THUNDER TO THE FORECAST AS IT SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.
Looks like we are just about done with the storms here (to the west of Panama City). Had some nice downpours and respectable t&l.
Quoting 577. sar2401:

Jed, do you drive a car? How's the gas mileage? I'm guessing pretty good. Any idea of how much emissions it puts out? I'm guessing you could wrap your lips around the tail pipe and never keel over from the CO. My first new car was a 1965 Chevelle. Terrible car. It went 0 to 60 in about an hour, but I bought it because it was an "economy" car. It got 16 mpg highway and 14 city, which was amazingly good then. A combination of political crises, inflation, and gas shortages made people clamor for cars with good mileage. Detroit, wanting to make money, had to make cars that people wanted. Government regulations made sure the rules about fuel economy and pollution control applied to every car company. That's what happens with mixed-market capitalism. People got what they wanted, the demand for oil began to decrease, and the air, even in LA, started to get cleaner. The auto companies made money and the auto workers made money, All in all, it was a pretty good outcome.

Any idea what kind of car was being built in the Soviet Union to sell to the public? Pictured below is a spanking new 1966 GAZ-21. If you know anything about old cars, you can see it's a poorly done reverse engineering job from a 1949 Studebaker. It got about 10 mpg overall.The diesel model wasn't so bad - you got 12 mpg with it. It was the first Soviet car with both a radio and a heater. If you wanted one, you ordered it from the state Automobile Bureau. No easy payment plan. No choice of colors. You just order a car. You paid for the entire thing upfront. It cost about USD $23,000. Of course, this assume you got state approval to buy a car. The Gaz-21 was one of the dirtiest gasoline cars ever produced, beaten only by the infamous East German Trabant. Once you paid, you waited. Usually for a year and sometimes as much as three years. It usually didn't run right when you got it, if it ran at all, so the Gaz spent the first couple of months at the factory fixing production flaws.

I'll leave it to any consumer to decide which economy works better. Not perfect, just better.




Yeah I have a 1998 mitsubishi eclipse, gets about 32 highway and 24 city, pone of the best fuel mileage cars from the 90's and it's still in pretty darn good condition for a 90's vehicle! It's been very reliable too, I've put about 30,000 miles on it since I bout it with 50,000 miles 4 years ago and haven't had to fix anything except replace the muffler and the break pads, the muffler only needed replaced after road debris broke it open. Otherwise though the car has been flawlessly reliable for a 16-17 year old car that still is almost factory everything.

Anyways, no doubt, just ask anyone who's lived through such horrors, they'll tell you everything. But yes, that's why China became slowly less and less communist over the years, they came around to realizing it doesn't work very well, and leads to a massive amount of people who are poor and struggling.
624. MahFL
Quoting 617. hurricanehunter27:

NWS just upped snowfall totals for Atlanta, find that a wee bit strange. I guess they are viewing something I don't have access to. Calling for 2-4 inches in Atlanta proper tonight. Very cold rain atm. Anyone have an idea why they upped snow totals?


Cold air being sucked down from the NW, on the back side of the storm.
Quoting 597. GeoffreyWPB:

What were climate scientists predicting in the 1970s?




FAKE!

That Time magazine cover is fake. The image of the penguin is from April 9, 2007 Time magazine, but the headline that went with it on the cover was "The Global Warming Survival Guide". Someone took an image of that cover and changed the headline to "How To Survive The Coming Ice Age", and changed the date to April 9, 1977.

This just shows the level of deceit that some people go to to promote their anti-science agenda.

Here's an article that tells the story of that altered Time magazine cover:

Link
626. vis0
Was thinking of calling Grothar on the blob hot-line**on 2 blips , one off Africa other off Baja, Eastern Atlantic blip broke into 2 areas. The ePac blip is a high level rotation but a small lower level rotation is joining from the NNE. all this East of Hawaii.
http://youtu.be/9aXt1ALlUFk (784x790)

**(but noticed it was busy. callerID::"KrspyKrm")
Predictions were for it to start raining in Charlotte about 7:00 PM - it didn't........at 7:00 PM it was snowing - big flakes - didn't have any rain at the beginning just all snow!!! Looks like we are going to get more than they predicted!!
Quoting 586. weblackey:



I am delurking, uh oh.

Don't overlook this very important part of Jedkins' comment: "...it's only as good as the people who run it, but it's better than the other forms of government, despite it's many flaws and weaknesses"

I agree with that, capitalism without moderation is not healthy, nor sustainable, and not only in the ecological sense, economically too. Seems to me he wasn't bashing capitalism, he was critiquing it.


I definitely am not anti-capitalist, I'm fairly conservative, although the current republican party would probably call me a traitor liberal crazy for my stances on science and other issues. However I affirm that what I support represent what traditional conservatives would have in mind, and actually there is a growing number of young conservatives who also share my notably different views from the current generation of conservatives.

At any rate, I don't think Sar was saying I was bashing capitalism, I just think he was reflecting on the issue since I mentioned it.
629. beell

(click for watch discussion)
Quoting 622. JNFlori30A:

Looks like we are just about done with the storms here (to the west of Panama City). Had some nice downpours and respectable t&l.


Yeah inflow winds have really picked up here, and I can see the intensity of the low level jet, low clouds are racing by! With the low level jet out of the southeast, I can see why the SPC has mentioned the tornado potential, however I think it's just too cool and stable for tornadoes, and I don't think we will see any tornado warnings around Tallahassee.

However, with shear profiles what they are and such a strong low level jet, any instability and decent updrafts could lead to severe weather, which is why the SPC is playing it safe and issuing the watch just in case. We should be glad there isn't much instability, this could have been a notable tornado event if instability was stronger.

It's actually starting to thunder here pretty good, honestly this is the first decent thunder activity I've heard in a long time up here, the last time I heard a lot of thunder was when I was in the Tampa Bay area near the beginning of February, we had a pretty strong squall line down there that produced summer like intensity lightning and about an inch of rain minutes.

Everything up here this semester has been just cool and stable moderate to steady heavy rains, no heavy thunderstorms with down pours.
Hopefully that will change this evening, the cells look to be getting a bit stronger as they approach.

I'll be sure to give an update on what we get here later :)


Well what do you know, these high shear low CAPE events don't usually do much around here, but here we go, could call on the watch SPC:



Tornado Warning

TORNADO WARNING
FLC037-045-077-260045-
/O.NEW.KTAE.TO.W.0006.150226T0022Z-150226T0045Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
722 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
SOUTHWESTERN LIBERTY COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
CENTRAL GULF COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF PORT ST. JOE...

* UNTIL 745 PM EST/645 PM CST/

* AT 718 PM EST...A DEVELOPING TORNADO HAS BEEN DETECTED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF PORT ST. JOE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WHITE
CITY...HONEYVILLE...DALKEITH...HOWARD CREEK...WILLIS LANDING...FORT
GADSDEN...OWENS BRIDGE...NIXON GARDEN...JENSEN PLACE...WILMA...
VILAS...TWIN POLE...SUMATRA...KERN AND CENTRAL CITY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! LEAVE MOBILE HOMES AND VEHICLES FOR SAFER STRUCTURES.
GET TO THE LOWEST FLOOR AND PUT AS MANY WALLS BETWEEN YOU AND THE
TORNADO AS POSSIBLE.

&&

LAT...LON 2982 8532 2983 8532 2985 8535 2989 8536
2992 8539 2997 8539 3028 8489 2998 8474
2980 8531
TIME...MOT...LOC 0022Z 243DEG 43KT 2991 8530

$$

25-CAMP
@621 I'v read the AFD, and the upping of snow totals happened after the AFD was issued. New forecaster got on I guess. I am guessing MahFL has the reason, but I find cold air advection to be a bit suspect. The air is not really that cold to the NW. Then again it wont take much.
Quoting 619. wilsongti45:


Time magazines fault not the scientist's for correctly pointing out that aerosols can cause a negative radiation balance. How many times does the media misrepresent the conclusions of science? C'mon now. Argue about something with substance like the feedback of cloud formation. Then we can have a productive debate.


I think my satirical comment was misinterpreted...

I'm on team science. I got the jersey and everything. :)

Quoting 633. Naga5000:



I think my satirical comment was misinterpreted...

I'm on team science. I got the jersey and everything. :)




Don't lie Naga, we all know how secretly you are anti-science. You're one of our spies.
Quoting 633. Naga5000:



I think my satirical comment was misinterpreted...

I'm on team science. I got the jersey and everything. :)



Quote within the quote wasn't included. Not meant for you. Technical problems on my end.
"Science adjusts its views based on what is observed; faith denies observation so that belief can be preserved."
~unknown
Ugggggg. I'm usually not that nave....

Quoting 636. oldnewmex:

"Science adjusts its views based on what is observed; faith denies observation so that belief can be preserved."
~unknown


"The great thing about the internet is that quotes can be from anyone" - Abraham Lincoln
Quoting 634. VAbeachhurricanes:



Don't lie Naga, we all know how secretly you are anti-science. You're one of our spies.


I'm a Stevie Wonder truther...my secret is out.

Edit: Warning there is adult language at that link. Please confirm you are over 18 before clicking, or at the very least, have parental permission.
We just had an incredible lightning strike here, the lightning hasn't been frequent but when we've had them they've been strong so far, we just had the most intense lightning strike I've seen since being here in Tallahassee, just saw a lightning strike hit a tree about 100 yards away while I was on the back porch! The power also went off temporarily then came back on.

By the way so far we are getting very heavy rain and gusty winds about 30-35 mph, darn good storm so far!
641. 882MB
Quoting 639. Naga5000:



I'm a Stevie Wonder truther...my secret is out.




I am totally behind that movement, he looks at everything!
Quoting 616. jocapo:

the ice cap in the arctic is growing, the ice cap in the antarctic is growing. this does not happen when warmer climate prevails.


Here's a recent article from Climate Central that shows that the rate of decline of arctic sea ice is greater than the rate of increase of antarctic sea ice, and thus that the global sea ice trend is downward:

Link

Here's a short video that explains why we shouldn't be fooled by claims that arctic sea ice is increasing:

Link
Okay, so here in Delaware we literally went from a forecast of no snow to six inches in twenty four hours. What???
Is that energy over Illinois suppose to meet up with the southern system?.Looks like their about to collide.
Quoting 641. 882MB:





That clipper's almost at my doorstep. Those are decently high tops in the southeast so there's a decent amount of forcing.
Quoting 644. Stormlover16:

Okay, so here in Delaware we literally went from a forecast of no snow to six inches in twenty four hours. What???



Forecasts change quickly. For example, Odile was originally going to be a fish storm well off to the west of baja but the forecast track shifted way off to the right a couple days later and CSL took a direct hit.
Quoting 638. VAbeachhurricanes:



"The great thing about the internet is that quotes can be from anyone" - Abraham Lincoln

Whether the quote is from the quote is from Julia Childs or Humphrey Bogart is not important. I have no idea from whom the quote originated; hence, "unknown".
Quoting 643. DCSwithunderscores:



Here's a recent article from Climate Central that shows that the rate of decline of arctic sea ice is greater than the rate of increase of antarctic sea ice, and thus that the global sea ice trend is down:

Link

Here's a short video that explains why we shouldn't be fooled by claims that arctic sea ice is increasing:

Link

This article, Making sense of Antarctic sea ice changes, covers some of the confusion people have on this topic.
650. beell
Quoting 637. GeoffreyWPB:

Ugggggg. I'm usually not that naïve.



Here, Geoff. This should make it all better!

Getting a heavy rain/sleet mix here right now, which wasn't predicted. Temperatures are a few degrees above freezing, which should prevent appreciable accumulation.

With all of these systems only clipping us, I decided to see how long it's been since an appreciable snowstorm (I'd mark that at approximately 6 inches). Wilmington has not seen a half foot of snow since December 1989--26 years ago! The return period going back to 1870 is 12 years!

Mother Nature, feel free to end that streak soon--next month would be great. :)
Quoting 633. Naga5000:



I think my satirical comment was misinterpreted...

I'm on team science. I got the jersey and everything. :)




OH CAPTAIN MY CAPTAIN!

Put me in coach! Just give me a chance! :)
Quoting 651. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Getting a heavy rain/sleet mix here right now, which wasn't predicted. Temperatures are a few degrees above freezing, which should prevent appreciable accumulation.

With all of these systems only clipping us, I decided to see how long it's been since an appreciable snowstorm (I'd mark that at approximately 6 inches). Wilmington has not seen a half foot of snow since December 1989--26 years ago! The return period going back to 1870 is 12 years!

Mother Nature, feel free to end that streak soon--next month would be great. :)


Get used to it and expect even more of this next Winter with El-Nino raging on. Could be atleast moderate come Fall. Models all seem to be falling in line with each other which is something you hate to hear as it effects your active hurricane season projections.


Quoting 644. Stormlover16:

Okay, so here in Delaware we literally went from a forecast of no snow to six inches in twenty four hours. What???
The storm has pushed further north and west...
beell....Going back to my Dennis the Menace avatar! However, very nicely done! You are very talented!


4 products issued by NWS for: 6 Miles NE Tallahassee FL
More Sharing ServicesShare | Share on facebook Share on twitter Share on email Share on print Share on gmail

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC073-129-260145-
/O.NEW.KTAE.SV.W.0008.150226T0110Z-150226T0145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
810 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN LEON COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF TALLAHASSEE...
NORTH CENTRAL WAKULLA COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 845 PM EST

* AT 808 PM EST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TALLAHASSEE...OR
NEAR BROWN HOUSE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
KLEMAN PLAZA AND STATE CAPITAL COMPLEX

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE IMMEDIATELY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY.

&&

LAT...LON 3032 8457 3065 8401 3064 8400 3052 8403
3052 8404 3049 8404 3046 8404 3043 8408
3036 8408 3025 8454
TIME...MOT...LOC 0111Z 237DEG 47KT 3032 8449

$$

25-CAMP





Geeze this line really ramped up just as it came into town! Winds are quite strong here and the rain is intense, the worst is still on the way, I'm in the path of the warning!

It's worth noting I can here the FSU severe weather alert siren and I'm about 3-4 miles from campus, impressive!
657. beell
Quoting 655. GeoffreyWPB:

beell....Going back to my Dennis the Menace avatar! However, very nicely done! You are very talented!


Nah, keep it!
I don't know what you're fixin' to eat there-but I want one!
The 1.9" of snow in Boston this morning brought the Massachusetts snow severity index up from 10,839 yesterday to 11,045 today.

The record is 14,300 in the 1995-96 winter.

I think Cody should have 25" of snow in one storm like we did in Elizabeth City NC in March 1980.
659. vis0

Quoting 337. sar2401:

I know squat about rats (Vis can probably help with that) but the fact that the plague outbreaks happened as increased seaborne commerce with the Far East was increasing at the same time would seem to indicate that the native rats or other rodents served as a reservoir for some period of time. I read the study but it's a little ...dense...and my brain isn't operating on dense too well this morning. The one thing I found puzzling was their using tree rings when the some of the events were occurring in the late 18th and early 19th century, when the records in Europe and the Far East were more than sufficient for the purposes of the study. I don't know, but I think I definitely need more coffee this morning. :-)
Howd ya know? guess ya googled me>Me, circa 1998 ...was drunk (5 glasses of 3% milk, i know know, what was i thinking of).
Who sparked the global cooling myth?

From 1965-1979 there were 44 scientific papers that predicted global warming and 7 that predicted global cooling.

For GeoffreyWPB et al.
Quoting 656. Jedkins01:



4 products issued by NWS for: 6 Miles NE Tallahassee FL
More Sharing ServicesShare | Share on facebook Share on twitter Share on email Share on print Share on gmail

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FLC073-129-260145-
/O.NEW.KTAE.SV.W.0008.150226T0110Z-150226T0145Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
810 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN LEON COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF TALLAHASSEE...
NORTH CENTRAL WAKULLA COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 845 PM EST

* AT 808 PM EST...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS DETECTED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TALLAHASSEE...OR
NEAR BROWN HOUSE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
KLEMAN PLAZA AND STATE CAPITAL COMPLEX

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE IMMEDIATELY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY.

&&

LAT...LON 3032 8457 3065 8401 3064 8400 3052 8403
3052 8404 3049 8404 3046 8404 3043 8408
3036 8408 3025 8454
TIME...MOT...LOC 0111Z 237DEG 47KT 3032 8449

$$

25-CAMP





Geeze this line really ramped up just as it came into town! Winds are quite strong here and the rain is intense, the worst is still on the way, I'm in the path of the warning!

It's worth noting I can here the FSU severe weather alert siren and I'm about 3-4 miles from campus, impressive!
Wow just low power, currently running on laptop backup, wind and rain is nuts right now, this cell definitely deserves the warning, probably some of the worst conditions I've seen since being here!

Saw about 2 power flashes and the rainfall is insanely heavy!
The low pressure is unusually deep, isn't it Jedkins01?
Quoting 616. jocapo:

the ice cap in the arctic is growing, the ice cap in the antarctic is growing. this does not happen when warmer climate prevails.
The thing is, folks, this posting is correct, except that he forgot a couple of words: Northern and Southern! Normally the ice cap in the Arctic grows during Northern winter, and the ice surrounding the Southern ice cap grows in the Southern winter. Since it's now Northern winter, the Arctic sea ice is increasing, but it probably will not reach the same volume of ice that was reached last year. However, the Antarctic sea ice may increase in extent in the Southern winter greater than last year, because the melting ice sheet (not cap) sheds fresh water ice into the ocean, which freezes at a higher temperature than the salt ocean. But the Antarctic ice sheet is not growing, and the sea ice at both poles will melt back in summer. So what?
Has anyone seen how massive Moderate Tropical Storm Glenda is?



i see lots of snow on this South Radar and Current Temperatures map


its this storm going to hit the northeast yes or no!
Quoting 653. StormTrackerScott:



Get used to it and expect even more of this next Winter with El-Nino raging on. Could be atleast moderate come Fall. Models all seem to be falling in line with each other which is something you hate to hear as it effects your active hurricane season projections.



Are you trolling?
Astronomers find a shockingly ancient black hole the size of 12 billion suns
Link
Quoting 661. hurricanes2018:


LOL, you know what I got to hand it to Jason he really is cool man. Always keeping it real and never getting into a fight with anyone on the blog.


littie snow in the northeast!
Quoting 664. BaltimoreBrian:

The low pressure is unusually deep, isn't it Jedkins01?
Nahhh that is just a normal walk in the park for him. ;)
674. beell


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0101
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN FL PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST GA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 4...

VALID 260129Z - 260300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 4 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH 4 CONTINUES UNTIL 05Z. THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR A TORNADO OR TWO ARE EXPECTED TO MODESTLY INCREASE/DEVELOP EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS /THROUGH 03-04Z OR 10-11 PM EST/ ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FL PANHANDLE/FAR SOUTHWEST GA.

DISCUSSION...A MODESTLY MOIST MARITIME AIR MASS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE EARLY THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A DEEPENING/NORTHEASTWARD-MOVING SURFACE LOW /999 MB/ THAT IS LOCATED NEAR TALLAHASSEE FL AS OF 01Z. LOWER/SOME MIDDLE 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE NOW MOVED INLAND ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE FL PANHANDLE...AND THIS SAME GENERAL NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOISTURE FLUX WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS ADDITIONAL PARTS OF NORTH FL/FAR SOUTHERN GA.

AS THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE MID-SOUTH CONTINUES TO QUICKLY APPROACH THE REGION...VERTICAL SHEAR IS AND WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG. THE 00Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM TALLAHASSEE AND LATEST WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM KTLH SHOWS A LONG/CURVING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH WITH EXTREME /500+ M2 PER S2/ 0-1 KM SRH AND AROUND 80 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THAT SAID...THE RELATIVE MARGINALITY/NARROWNESS OF THE INLAND MOISTURE FLUX THIS EVENING...AND RELATED WEAK BUOYANCY WITHIN A MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...IS LIKELY TO BE AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE CERTAIN/WIDESPREAD SEVERE RISK. NONETHELESS...THE SCENARIO SHOULD SUPPORT A COMBINATION OF INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED/PREVALENT SMALL-SCALE BOWS IN ADDITION TO FAST-MOVING/TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE.

..GUYER.. 02/26/2015
Quoting 669. Gearsts:
Are you trolling?


Is what it is. There is not going to be a bust this year as so many scientist who predicted a Super El-Nino last year may want to look at what seems to be developing for 2015. Record high PDO and nino 3.4 steadily over .5C for 4 months now means this year is different from last year which didn't have a PDO above what would one expect for El-Nino to form till late last year and Nino 3.4 which didn't stay above 3.4 until October.




Quoting 653. StormTrackerScott:



Get used to it and expect even more of this next Winter with El-Nino raging on. Could be atleast moderate come Fall. Models all seem to be falling in line with each other which is something you hate to hear as it effects your active hurricane season projections.




?

I don't remember forecasting an active Atlantic hurricane season. In fact, I'm pretty sure I've posted over the past several months about how a weak AMO and continued warm ENSO conditions – which continues to appear more likely than an El Nino – are likely to favor below-average hurricane activity unless we see a dramatic change.
Quoting 662. Jedkins01:

Wow just low power, currently running on laptop backup, wind and rain is nuts right now, this cell definitely deserves the warning, probably some of the worst conditions I've seen since being here!

Saw about 2 power flashes and the rainfall is insanely heavy!
Hey stay safe buddy, looks like this event ended up being more worst than predicted.

Look at the piece of jet streak nosing into the Panhandle.



Local Storm Report


02/25/2015 0830 PM

5 miles ESE of Tallahassee , Leon County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by 911 call center.


Tree down on wire at old St. Augustine Rd and Southwood
Plantation Rd.

Quoting 675. StormTrackerScott:



Is what it is. There is not going to be a bust this year as so many scientist who predicted a Super El-Nino last year may want to look at what seems to be developing for 2015. Record high PDO and nino 3.4 steadily over .5C for 4 months now means this year is different from last year which didn't have a PDO above what would one expect for El-Nino to form till late last year and Nino 3.4 which didn't stay above 3.4 until October.





We all know this.
Quoting 658. BaltimoreBrian:

I think Cody should have 25" of snow in one storm like we did in Elizabeth City NC in March 1980.

I'm all for it, but I don't control the weather. :)

The most snow I've ever seen occurred in Fort Worth back in February 2010, when we picked up 16". That was a really fun experience, especially considering the forecast the night before the event had 3-5"...
Quoting 668. hurricanes2018:



its this storm going to hit the northeast yes or no!



It may pass just off to your south. GFS has it just off Long Island. The only northeast snow in the next couple of days is from the clipper that's approaching St. Louis.
Nothing falling in Pittsylvania county VA yet. Temps still in the upper 30's at the moment. Standing on the back porch and all is very, very quiet.
Quoting 653. StormTrackerScott:



Get used to it and expect even more of this next Winter with El-Nino raging on. Could be atleast moderate come Fall. Models all seem to be falling in line with each other which is something you hate to hear as it effects your active hurricane season projections.





Raging?
Up to 4 inches possible in D.C now.
Quoting 677. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Hey stay safe buddy, looks like this event ended up being more worst than predicted.

Look at the piece of jet streak nosing into the Panhandle.



Local Storm Report


02/25/2015 0830 PM

5 miles ESE of Tallahassee , Leon County.

Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by 911 call center.


Tree down on wire at old St. Augustine Rd and Southwood
Plantation Rd.



Interesting, that's only about a half mile away from me, and I'm not surprised!

Well it's quieting down now and the power is back on, this turned out to be a lot more impressive than I was expecting, a lot of events around here end up being duds especially this time of year lol. This really was a great thunderstorm though, amazed to not see any trees down around outside with all these tall skinny pines, as the wind was really strong for a time although there was the storm report you just showed, a lot stronger than these cool season squall lines usually bring.

What was surprising to me though was how heavy the rain was, for about 10 minutes it rained like a strong summer thunderstorm, just looking at my gauge recently and looks near 2 inches right now, most of which fell in about 20 minutes! I'll check it later tomorrow to get an exact reading after school because it's hard to read with the darkness and rain.

Also yes we were just to the right of the diverging V in the jet streak, that's where the flow is most diffluent leading to the best lift, this really got a lot better organized just as it came into the area, it's interesting because the temperature was in the low 50's with dense fog all day, but it rapidly rose into the 60's and the fog cleared just before the line moved in, there was a narrow feed of instability just ahead of it as it came in.
Quoting 682. win1gamegiantsplease:


Raging?


Come this Fall yes now no as there is no El-Nino officially yet but that looks to change by April potentially if the ONI stays above .5 in March.
Quoting 651. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Getting a heavy rain/sleet mix here right now, which wasn't predicted. Temperatures are a few degrees above freezing, which should prevent appreciable accumulation.

With all of these systems only clipping us, I decided to see how long it's been since an appreciable snowstorm (I'd mark that at approximately 6 inches). Wilmington has not seen a half foot of snow since December 1989--26 years ago! The return period going back to 1870 is 12 years!

Mother Nature, feel free to end that streak soon--next month would be great. :)


The rain/snow line much further east of 95 than I thought it would be this early. Fayetteville was seeing snow before Winston-Salem or Greensboro was.
Quoting 683. washingtonian115:

Up to 4 inches possible in D.C now.


I'm starting to worry it might mix here a little now
I'll keep it real simple and go based on climatology strictly and say this season will be average to slightly above average and based on the sst profiles with the North Atlantic and Gulf being the warmest go with 1975 as an analog. The only recent El Nino season that ended with a 5 was the 1965 season which occurred during the cold phase of the pdo and well we had Hurricane Betsy. Warm phase and with an El Nino will be really interesting. That is if we get an El Nino.



raderloop the rain is moving fast!
Moody AFB, GA (KVAX) - Base Reflectivity (0.5)
doubt I'll see a drop here in Jacksonville

#rainhateme
Quoting 688. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I'll keep it real simple and go based on climatology strictly and say this season will be average to slightly above average and based on the sst profiles with the North Atlantic and Gulf being the warmest go with 1975 as an analog. The only recent El Nino season that ended with a 5 was the 1965 season which occurred during the cold phase of the pdo and well we had Hurricane Betsy. Warm phase and with an El Nino will be really interesting. That is if we get an El Nino.


I suspect a 8 to 9 storm season with 1 ot 2 impacts to the US with 1 maybe being a major. Been to long since the US has been hit by a major and I suspect that drought is broken this year.
Quoting 691. aquak9:

doubt I'll see a drop here in Jacksonville

#rainhateme


There might be a little bit in JAX. #theresstillhope





Heavy wet snow coming (DH says it's frozen ice  s**t, not snow, I could be wrong) is coming down fast here in Raleigh, sticking to everything, road, lawns, cars, dogs, etc.
Quoting 687. VAbeachhurricanes:



I'm starting to worry it might mix here a little now
I think for once this winter you all have a chance of actually seeing some nice snow.
This is interesting, looking at the Tallahassee sounding, if we didn't have that stable layer near the surface and had much higher surface CAPE, this could have been a scary tornado event, surface to 3 km shear and helicity especially was scary high on the sounding, 934 m^2/s^2 for SFC to 3 km helicity and SFC to 1 km of 821 is scary high, thank God for low instability! lol

Basically, 250 for 0-3 km and 100 for 0-1 km is the threshold for possible supercell development and tornadoes, although that's assuming sufficient CAPE, still the values tonight were amazingly high, and it could have been a rough evening if decent CAPE was around
According to Scott, we have to be ready for another round of weak pathetic tropical waves eaten by dry air and SAL this hurricane season :-(

THIS is too sad!
I have added the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society to the list of news sources in my blog.
really? Am I reading this right..12 inches of rain?

00z NAM
Quoting 700. ncstorm:

really? Am I reading this right..12 inches of rain?

00z NAM



no, its in mm/hr.
Quoting 697. CaribBoy:

According to Scott, we have to be ready for another round of weak pathetic tropical waves eaten by dry air and SAL this hurricane season :-(

THIS is too sad!

It's sad that people won't be endangered by severe weather just because you'll be bored?
Quoting 701. VAbeachhurricanes:



no, its in mm/hr.

...and it's just the instantaneous rate for that point in time, not an accumulation.
Quoting 701. VAbeachhurricanes:



no, its in mm/hr.


okay thanks
Quoting 597. GeoffreyWPB:

What were climate scientists predicting in the 1970s?



You realize that we have orders of magnitude more computing power, better models, a lot more measurements, and Terabytes of data today compared to 1970s, right? There may still be a ways to go, but CO2 and warming link is there.

I personally hate cold and think it'd be beneficial for humans if the earth warmed up a couple degrees, we'd have Canada and Siberia as inhabitable places. The speed of warming might be a bit of a problem. but I'm confident we'll have the technology to combat the effects.
Quoting 692. StormTrackerScott:
I suspect a 8 to 9 storm season with 1 ot 2 impacts to the US with 1 maybe being a major. Been to long since the US has been hit by a major and I suspect that drought is broken this year.


Using the SSS as a measure scale for impact as a Major is a poor scale indeed.

Also note the 2008 year with Gustav and Ike as well.

Major is a relative thing save for those impacted, always as well.

Sandy October 2012



Formed October 22, 2012

Dissipated November 2, 2012

(Extratropical after October 29

Highest winds 1-minute sustained: 115 mph (185 km/h)

Lowest pressure 940 mbar (hPa); 27.76 inHg
Fatalities 233 total (direct and indirect)
Damage $68 billion (2012 USD)

Second-costliest hurricane in US history
Areas affected Greater Antilles, Bahamas, most of the eastern United States (especially the coastal Mid-Atlantic States), Bermuda, eastern Canada
Part of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season



Isaac August 2012



Formed August 21, 2012
Dissipated September 3, 2012
(Extratropical on September 1)

Highest winds 1-minute sustained: 80 mph (130 km/h)

Lowest pressure 965 mbar (hPa); 28.5 inHg

Fatalities 34 direct, 7 indirect

Damage $2.39 billion (2012 USD)

Areas affected Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba, The Bahamas, Southeastern United States (Florida, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, and Alabama)
Part of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season
Quoting 705. coldisbad:


You realize that we have orders of magnitude more computing power, better models, a lot more measurements, and Terabytes of data today compared to 1970s, right? There may still be a ways to go, but CO2 and warming link is there.

I personally hate cold and think it'd be beneficial for humans if the earth warmed up a couple degrees, we'd have Canada and Siberia as inhabitable places. The speed of warming might be a bit of a problem. but I'm confident we'll have the technology to combat the effects.

And they'll be saying that 35-40 years from now. Who knows how different the inferences will be then...
One thing is sure as a Blue Sky, the CO2 ppm will be approaching 500ppm or more in 50 years.

Its gone up 85ppm in my 55 years.

co2now,org 399.85


Thats a weally, weally, bad thing.




Over the last 800,000 years, natural factors have caused the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration to vary within a range of about 170 to 300 parts per million (ppm). The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased by roughly 35 percent since the start of the industrial revolution. Globally, over the past several decades, about 80 percent of human-induced CO2 emissions came from the burning of fossil fuels, while about 20 percent resulted from deforestation and associated agricultural practices. In the absence of strong control measures, emissions projected for this century would result in the CO2 concentration increasing to a level that is roughly 2 to 3 times the highest level occurring over the glacial-interglacial era that spans the last 800,000 or more years.


Nothing new under the sun,enjoy your evening everyone.
Quoting 706. Patrap:



Using the SSS as a measure scale for impact as a Major is a poor scale indeed.

Also note the 2008 year with Gustav and Ike as well.

Major is a relative thing save for those impacted, always as well.

Sandy October 2012



Formed October 22, 2012

Dissipated November 2, 2012

(Extratropical after October 29

Highest winds 1-minute sustained: 115 mph (185 km/h)

Lowest pressure 940 mbar (hPa); 27.76 inHg
Fatalities 233 total (direct and indirect)
Damage $68 billion (2012 USD)

Second-costliest hurricane in US history
Areas affected Greater Antilles, Bahamas, most of the eastern United States (especially the coastal Mid-Atlantic States), Bermuda, eastern Canada
Part of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season



Isaac August 2012



Formed August 21, 2012
Dissipated September 3, 2012
(Extratropical on September 1)

Highest winds 1-minute sustained: 80 mph (130 km/h)

Lowest pressure 965 mbar (hPa); 28.5 inHg

Fatalities 34 direct, 7 indirect

Damage $2.39 billion (2012 USD)

Areas affected Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba, The Bahamas, Southeastern United States (Florida, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, and Alabama)
Part of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season


The SSS is based on wind, but you're right, it is relative. Sandy was destructive due to the wide area it affected (as well as its unusual path due to a blocking high to its northeast so it had to nowhere to go but the jersey shore), though it did have pressure you'd see in a category 3 hurricane. It stalled for a couple days so places like staten island, parts of long island, and new jersey got a few days of onshore winds that pushed all that water onshore (and funneled it into parts of NYC) and caused extensive coastal flooding and damage to the subway system. On the other hand, karl hit veracruz in 2010 (a couple weeks after Earl brushed the outer banks) as a category 3 yet damage wasn't too terribly widespread there because it was a very small hurricane and there weren't many reports of hurricane-force winds it the city despite it passing 10 miles north.
Quoting 708. Patrap:

One thing is sure as a Blue Sky, the CO2 ppm will be approaching 500ppm or more in 50 years.

Its gone up 85ppm in my 55 years.

co2now,org 399.85


Thats a weally, weally, bad thing.




Over the last 800,000 years, natural factors have caused the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration to vary within a range of about 170 to 300 parts per million (ppm). The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased by roughly 35 percent since the start of the industrial revolution. Globally, over the past several decades, about 80 percent of human-induced CO2 emissions came from the burning of fossil fuels, while about 20 percent resulted from deforestation and associated agricultural practices. In the absence of strong control measures, emissions projected for this century would result in the CO2 concentration increasing to a level that is roughly 2 to 3 times the highest level occurring over the glacial-interglacial era that spans the last 800,000 or more years.






Oh neaux!
Heavy wet snow falling in Pitt county now. Sticking to anything and everything.
Quoting 712. Storms306:

Heavy wet snow falling in Pitt county now. Sticking to anything and everything.

"Sigh,"I need to move north.
Quoting 702. coldisbad:


It's sad that people won't be endangered by severe weather just because you'll be bored?



We will be lacking of rain. Keep in mind that rain is very important in the Leeward Islands.

So.. yes, it's absolutely sad. I repeat and confirm.



715. flsky
NASA mega-drought prediction. (Please ignore if this has already been posted.)
Link
Gustav and Ike were, for all intents and purposes, major hurricanes if we're defining solely wind impact. 90 and 95 kt really isn't meaningfully different from 100 kt, where major hurricane starts.
Quoting 714. CaribBoy:



We will be lacking of rain. Keep in mind that rain is very important in the Leeward Islands.

So.. yes, it's absolutely sad. I repeat and confirm.




Using the water card makes no sense in hoping for some category severe hurricane. Historically, the folks living in the Caribbean have filled up their cisterns more with slow moving tropical storms, even tropical waves. These are preferable to a faster moving mainly windstorm, which cause more damage and kill more people while dropping less rain.
.
Spare us the "woe is us, so sad" routine in dreaming about winds. Nobody wants home damage unless the damage means the government comes in put a new roof on your house. Which I've heard happens in some islands.
Quoting 702. coldisbad:


It's sad that people won't be endangered by severe weather just because you'll be bored?



Yes.

*snicker*
719. vis0

Quoting 551. nrtiwlnvragn:

Way off topic.....

Find the #1 Song on the Day You Were Born

Note: May not work for Gro
Way OFF Off topic, but  on cmment:: wouldn't a more telling tune be Find the #1 "Song on the Day You Were Conceived", i guess one can enter any date those servers searching won't go oooooohhh.

On topic but way off off cmmnt:: looks like nature in areas in & around the UsofA, is trying to force a zonal flow ....interesting (if LOWs keep going more off tyhe NE shore by several hundred miles and then building to my way of reading weather patterns & the ml-d that means Nature is putting out strong zonal flows that are trumping the ml-d's influence to curve LOWs more towards the NE, lets see if this continues for 3-4 more days. If so those that know physics enter in your models that there might be strong wind divergent/sheering at many different levels** for the next ~50-55 days)

-------again i stink at physics (no kidding) but the more changes in wind directions WITH constant or quickly replenished STRONG WINDS  at different levels of the "weather" atmospheres the more spin  their is for nature to tap into therefore build stronger storms. Gonna try and find how the winds where during the OHIO-PA. outbreak in the early 1970s, again observe if this zonal flow continues on LOWs from the south building up and heading more offshore ~NJ rather than Nw.Eng.


The wind is howling on the west coast of Florida, holy warm air advection, batman:

Mostly Cloudy and Breezy

72F

22C

Humidity87%
Wind SpeedS 25 G 41 mph
Barometer29.71 in (1006.1 mb)
Dewpoint68F (20C)
Visibility10.00 mi

Last Update on 26 Feb 12:53 am EST

Current conditions at

St. Petersburg/Clearwater Airport (KPIE)

Lat: 27.91N Lon: 82.69W Elev: 3ft.

More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather
721. vis0
why lookie there it posted at #719.

Crashed 2 times just typing this cmmnt, i'm too old to be wasting the last drops of oil in my knuckles to 3peat this. (9 crashes for ffox in 24 hrs i must've reconfigured something or WxU has the fleu, "electronic bug") i know words are cut off, have some fun guessing what they are.


It was the tale of two states today in Alabama. From a Tuscaloosa to Birmingham to Gadsden line north, everyone got measurable snow. Luckily for the big cities, that changeover to snow came late, about 8:00 pm in Birmingham, and it was all snow. Very heavy, wet snow, but no reports of significant ice. Birmingham reports totals in the 2" range. The snow has now ended for most of the state. Totals further north appear to be anywhere from 6" to 11", and it's just about impossible for traffic to move in these areas, with widespread power outages. Some of the snow totals in NW AL are the second or third highest ever, and I expect we'll find some places that don't have power and phones will report totals of 12" or more tomorrow, which should set some all-time records.

From Montgomery south, it was a day of heavy rain and some strong thunderstorms, as the snow line stayed far to the north. Totals of 1.5" to 2.5" are pretty general for this area. I had several lines of organized showers with a few thunderstorms move through, with the rain ending at 11:00 pm. None of the thunderstorms here were severe and, in my case, not even strong. My high wind gust was only 11 mph, even with the pressure down to 29.52. I haven't heard of any flooding problems beyond the usual nuisance flooding on some streets. We really needed the rain, and the soil had a lot of carrying capacity. Even with today's rain, we are still behind for the month and year.

For anyone following the WPC challenge, the WPC QPF forecast from last Sunday through 6:00 CST today showed a total of 2" to 2.5" in SE AL. From Sunday until Wednesday midnight, I had 1.15" of rain. From 000 Wednesday until 1800 today, I got another 2.65" (!). My day total rainfall though midnight on 2/25 was 2.95" (!). So, instead of around 2.5" for the period, I got 3.80". It's kind of hard to fault the WPC on this one, since I don't believe any forecasts anticipated what actually happened here today. If we ignore the predicted totals, the WPC correctly forecast we'd get substantial rain in the four day period, and they were right about that. Still, if you're going to forecast amounts, ~2.50" compared to the actual of 3.80" is a pretty big miss. What concerns me is that the WPC has pretty consistently missed in my area on upside variance, and this is yet another example.
Total bust in the forecast for me here near Mauldin, SC. They predicted at least 3 or 4 inches of snow here but all I got here was maybe 3/4ths of an inch to maybe an inch of snow and maybe an inch of sleet here. Kinda disappointed but its better than nothing. Snow was a little heavier north of I-85 and Spartanburg got some pretty good snows as well.
Quoting vis0:

Way OFF Off topic, but  on cmment:: wouldn't a more telling tune be Find the #1 "Song on the Day You Were Conceived", i guess one can enter any date those servers searching won't go oooooohhh.

On topic but way off off cmmnt:: looks like nature in areas in & around the UsofA, is trying to force a zonal flow ....interesting (if LOWs keep going more off tyhe NE shore by several hundred miles and then building to my way of reading weather patterns & the ml-d that means Nature is putting out strong zonal flows that are trumping the ml-d's influence to curve LOWs more towards the NE, lets see if this continues for 3-4 more days. If so those that know physics enter in your models that there might be strong wind divergent/sheering at many different levels** for the next ~50-55 days)

-------again i stink at physics (no kidding) but the more changes in wind directions WITH constant or quickly replenished STRONG WINDS  at different levels of the "weather" atmospheres the more spin  their is for nature to tap into therefore build stronger storms. Gonna try and find how the winds where during the OHIO-PA. outbreak in the early 1970s, again observe if this zonal flow continues on LOWs from the south building up and heading more offshore ~NJ rather than Nw.Eng.


LOL. How appropriate. Mine was "Let It Snow! Let It Snow! Let It Snow!" by Vaughn Monroe and his Orchestra. Sure worked for today for north Alabama. So, Vis, what did the ml-d have to do with today's weather? Pretty wild stuff, and most of it wasn't on the radar, so to speak.
Quoting EricfromGreenvilleSC:
Total bust in the forecast for me here near Mauldin, SC. They predicted at least 3 or 4 inches of snow here but all I got here was maybe 3/4ths of an inch to maybe an inch of snow and maybe an inch of sleet here. Kinda disappointed but its better than nothing. Snow was a little heavier north of I-85 and Spartanburg got some pretty good snows as well.
The gradient between snow and no snow was pretty sharp. We had areas with 2-4" of snow here in north central Alabama while areas 25 miles south reported all rain. This forecast always had a high bust potential, both for above and below the forecast. It really shows that we don't yet have the ability forecast these small scale changes with any accuracy. I wish people would keep today in mind when they look at the Next Big Thing in model predictions.
Quoting 705. coldisbad:
...I personally hate cold and think it'd be beneficial for humans if the earth warmed up a couple degrees, we'd have Canada and Siberia as inhabitable places.


No, we wouldn't. It takes a hell of a lot more than temperature to make a place inhabitable. For example, it's difficult to grow food when your crops are not adapted to the conditions of the region. This includes day-night cycles, insects, etc. It also doesn't help when the land you're trying to grow food on is sitting on top of a gigantic granite shield. Take a look at the geology of mid to northern Canada. It's nutritionally poor scrub land on top of a big plate of rock.

Siberia is no better. Like Canada, there a few areas conducive to agricultural, mostly in the western and southern regions. However most of Siberia is acidic podsol, progressing to frozen tundra in the north. Not really friendly to agricultural crops.

In addition, a warming of 2C isn't going to do much against arctic airmasses. It's still going to be really freakin' cold in the winter (and dark). Instead of -30 temps, you might see -25 temps. Not exactly beach weather. Those temps also imply another problem; large amounts energy use. That pretty much makes those region economically dead.

The speed of warming might be a bit of a problem. but I'm confident we'll have the technology to combat the effects.


Unlikely. And technology isn't the biggest problem anyway.
727. vis0

Quoting 670. washingtonian115:

Astronomers find a shockingly ancient black hole the size of 12 billion suns
Link

IGNORE MY WORDS, they're for future archeologists whom dig into old servers (not soil) to find the Knowledge & Gnowledge are older than time itself.

Spirit of Universe is ~128 BILLION LIGHT YEARS. a quiet ocean only moving within not without
Soul of Universe is ~60 BILLION LIGHT YEARS.  Black holes q-Novae begin to form as the seed for a big (as in coverage NOT as in loud) bang is sewn.
Self (physical) of Universe is ~20 Billion light yrs  The flower that is physics blossoms via the Big in coverage 'bang" (Modern science presently sez ~14-16 billion light yrs)

...19.99999999999 billion yrs later some are still adding fertilizer to that flower, by still thinking man cannot destroy himself via aGW/GCS. 

(Yes Grothar i missed a few 9's, my abacus string broke while trying to slide all the beads over, ...the clothing that where drying on that string)
Quoting 720. Jedkins01:
The wind is howling on the west coast of Florida, holy warm air advection, batman:

Mostly Cloudy and Breezy

72�F

22�C

Humidity87%
Wind SpeedS 25 G 41 mph
Barometer29.71 in (1006.1 mb)
Dewpoint68�F (20�C)
Visibility10.00 mi

Last Update on 26 Feb 12:53 am EST

Current conditions at

St. Petersburg/Clearwater Airport (KPIE)

Lat: 27.91�N Lon: 82.69�W Elev: 3ft.

More Local Wx | 3 Day History | Mobile Weather


Wind has been gusting to 45mph here this morning with consistant lightning flashing now to my west. These storms though may just miss my area to the west.
729. vis0

Quoting 705. coldisbad:


You realize that we have orders of magnitude more computing power, better models, a lot more measurements, and Terabytes of data today compared to 1970s, right? There may still be a ways to go, but CO2 and warming link is there.

I personally hate cold and think it'd be beneficial for humans if the earth warmed up a couple degrees, we'd have Canada and Siberia as inhabitable places. The speed of warming might be a bit of a problem. but I'm confident we'll have the technology to combat the effects.
You realize this is not, sit next to the fireplace with yer significant other (in my case a mirror) with a nice open flame going crackle crackle snap pop?

This is more like  FAMILY #1:: WHERE JOHN!!!!!!!
i DON'T KNOW" OMG I THINK HE WAS IN THE HOUSE WHEN THE WATERS FINALLY TOOK THE HOME INTO THE OCEAN... JOHN!!!!!
FAMILY#2:: i'VE NEVER SEEN THE WATER THIS HIGH WITHOUT A SEVERE STORM!
I CANNOT BELIEVE THIS WEATHER (CACKLE CRACKLE BOOM) *THUNDER* EVER SINCE 2021  NO ONE CAN PREDICT WEATHER MORE THAN 24 HRS OUT!
 *winds howling* i KNOW MY GOLF GAME WAS TO BE RAINED OUT TODAY BUT IT SNOWED AND TOMORROW Tropical storm  ZETA PI ZETA, IS GOING TO CANCEL MY TENNIS LESSONS.
BTW WHERE YOUR SON
OH HE WENT TO ALASKA to breathe in some cleaner air and TO TAKE IN THE IDITAROD.    
HOW WAS IT?
 IT WAS CANCELED DUE TO THE FACT THERE WAS NOT ENOUGH SNOW AND TO HOT FOR THE DOGS, 
(winds die down as the go into bunker due to tornado sirens) some dogs almost died from over heating.
BUT ITS WINTER , i know who'd had thunk it crackle crackle (tree blown over by winds) Following day, neighbors buried at sea on account that most cemetery are now underwater, as most at the burial being its nighttime and power is off  use candles and torches type of crackle crackle snap pop!

Of course this will not happen all in one day, but to those that lose luved ones for a reason that man generated & could've prevented, does that matter?

P.S. if you realize that odds are, when Canada (northern) & Siberia become Inhabitable that means USofA (southern),  sub tropical & Tropical areas (ALL OVER THE GLOBE) become uninhabitable (as to modern living) as the same weather extremes that bring "warmth" up towards the polar regions cause such extremes in weather patterns that droughts to deluges become more the norm, and make living their very costly TO SAY THE LEAST.

AS to your words "The speed of warming might be a bit of a problem" i thank you that you noticed that could be an issue, lets start lowering the CO2 so that we don't have to outrun that warmth as we move towards Siberia and therefore we can enjoy Constantinople for a few years.
WHAT ITS NO LONGER NAMED Constantinople? since when?
good early thurs morning..very windy right now, no rain by me yet but........HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
326 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-15 5-160-162-165-
239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-GMZ830-836-85 0-853-856-870-
873-876-262000-
SUMTER-PINELLAS-POLK-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DESOTO-COAS TAL LEVY-
COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL PASCO-
COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-
COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND CITRUS-
INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND PASCO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND MANATEE-
INLAND SARASOTA-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND LEE-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
326 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS...MAINLY
TO THE SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. ISOLATED STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
IS ANTICIPATED. ANY STORMS SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

731. vis0

Quoting 722. sar2401:

It was the tale of two states today in Alabama. From a Tuscaloosa to Birmingham to Gadsden line north, everyone got measurable snow. Luckily for the big cities, that changeover to snow came late, about 8:00 pm in Birmingham, and it was all snow. Very heavy, wet snow, but no reports of significant ice. Birmingham reports totals in the 2" range. The snow has now ended for most of the state. Totals further north appear to be anywhere from 6" to 11", and it's just about impossible for traffic to move in these areas, with widespread power outages. Some of the snow totals in NW AL are the second or third highest ever, and I expect we'll find some places that don't have power and phones will report totals of 12" or more tomorrow, which should set some all-time records.

From Montgomery south, it was a day of heavy rain and some strong thunderstorms, as the snow line stayed far to the north. Totals of 1.5" to 2.5" are pretty general for this area. I had several lines of organized showers with a few thunderstorms move through, with the rain ending at 11:00 pm. None of the thunderstorms here were severe and, in my case, not even strong. My high wind gust was only 11 mph, even with the pressure down to 29.52. I haven't heard of any flooding problems beyond the usual nuisance flooding on some streets. We really needed the rain, and the soil had a lot of carrying capacity. Even with today's rain, we are still behind for the month and year.

For anyone following the WPC challenge, the WPC QPF forecast from last Sunday through 6:00 CST today showed a total of 2" to 2.5" in SE AL. From Sunday until Wednesday midnight, I had 1.15" of rain. From 000 Wednesday until 1800 today, I got another 2.65" (!). My day total rainfall though midnight on 2/25 was 2.95" (!). So, instead of around 2.5" for the period, I got 3.80". It's kind of hard to fault the WPC on this one, since I don't believe any forecasts anticipated what actually happened here today. If we ignore the predicted totals, the WPC correctly forecast we'd get substantial rain in the four day period, and they were right about that. Still, if you're going to forecast amounts, ~2.50" compared to the actual of 3.80" is a pretty big miss. What concerns me is that the WPC has pretty consistently missed in my area on upside variance, and this is yet another example.

TOOTING TIME:: SAR2401 sez "since I don't believe any forecasts anticipated what actually happened here today."
Yet crazy me stated what happened (search for a reply to a SAR2401 cmmnt) my only prediction under 78% correct here on Wxu since 2010 was hurricane season 2014.  RECENTLY(El Niño goes back but still a fresh subject),

Posted to be on the look out 1 month before Fay & Gonzalo formed as to my knowledge the then upcoming "2WkAnom" period raised opportunities for 2.3 weak Hurricanes to form, when i read (thanks to a wxu member) ~ 3 days before Fay formed that MJO was coming i up's it to 2.3 moderate(cat3) Hurrs.   [√]

Stated no widespread AtmosRiver, just pockets of moderate rain [√],

Predicted ~18days before of a 50% chance of a TS like storm might form off Baja, CA as the most recent "2Wkanom" would end as as opposed to a moderator thinking a MODEL was picking up a TS during the Dec. 2014 AtmosRiver event, no TS formed but 2 mini swirls brought Baja moisture. [~ √ ]

Mentioned since 2012, instead of El Niño in 2012 & again 2014/15 i stated no El Niño and in November 2014 look for "Le IkodoM Niño" (for Modoki Niño areas recieving moisture BUT FROMN THE OPPOSITE directions  as rain from N or NE via Washington State to Northern Ca and eventually towards Southern Ca. or via the southern route from Baja heading N/NW towards Ca. [√] BTW thats just El Modoki spelled backwards.

(only busted forecast was when i busted my ml-d, NOT TO WORRY LADIES i had an extra one (as i told SAR2401)

How did i get prediction correct? By using an educated guess but based on Galacsics not physics, imagine if  models used both.

 WAKE UP vis0 

wow i had the weirdest dream that i had the quality cojones of stormtrackerscott, which if i my add my apologies (though he'll think its weird, like the text above wasn't, but those are facts look up my past cmmnts), i apologize as stormtrackerscott, as he would be 90% correct as to El Niños, TWO of them since 2012 as a friend whom knows her physics passed my Galacsics theories through a "model" run, type program  and after the compu'r threw up, the programs in removing how i state the ml-d influence weather since 2010, stated we should have had 2 El Ninos both moderate. Be patient stormtrackerscott, first be on the look out for what i posted on this Masters' blobyte as to the next 50-55 day wxtrend and hold on for a wild weather ride of 3-5 yrs.and science will scratch their heads but if we're in a TS lull how did we get ................

Hope you put the rain to good use SAR2401...you do collect rain water as i do, as i set my Puerto Rican home (in 2010, to do so by placing 6 blue 50 gallon rain barrels (sadly only 2 were activated...lid taken off) to drip their rain on a down-slope  (plastic barrels tied & raised up on small sturdy foundation "benches"(not drawn, tried to draw the 45 different plants ALL MY FATHER's planting, (not VID recorded ,as due to my good citizenship i'm always stopped at airports~15 times including  6 times had to leave cameras in nyc) , neighbors remove it is wind alerts are given), dripping halts when sponges get wet and when sponges become dry dripping commences. See tubes are hanging from flat small poles (don't want to attract lightning) what the tubes hang on, are a type of sturdy sponge line chord. When it rains the weighted sponge elongates and since the tubes are feed through a screw with a metal loop it creates a see-saw like action ...ah here let me draw it. Pictures on my Facebook, but sorry only for real life friends, some images of Home, pups on my Ipernity as "Senor Equis" but its mixed in with wxbabes to science to religious theories, some theories might rub some the wrong way or are too adult based. You've been doomed i mean warned.

Ahhh, i can stop talking ...the paint dried.
w.sky.is.dark..e.cen.fl.
Quoting 564. wartsttocs:



Were some of those articles that "stood out" authored by a man named Soon? Post denier-gate it is hard to believe anyone would seriously bring "the sun" thing up in regards to recent warming. I am aware of the 11 year solar cycle, but beyond that I don't think there is evidence of a longer term "cycle". (I could be wrong) If there is what causes it and what is the empirical evidence? I think just throwing out the world "cycle" without identifying it and explaining it is worthless.
Their probably longer cycles and a lot more we don't about the sun, it's cycles' and the effects it has on our planet. We've only really been studying the sun in earnest for a few years in the grand scheme of things.
Quoting 717. CosmicEvents:

Using the water card makes no sense in hoping for some category severe hurricane. Historically, the folks living in the Caribbean have filled up their cisterns more with slow moving tropical storms, even tropical waves. These are preferable to a faster moving mainly windstorm, which cause more damage and kill more people while dropping less rain.
.
Spare us the "woe is us, so sad" routine in dreaming about winds. Nobody wants home damage unless the damage means the government comes in put a new roof on your house. Which I've heard happens in some islands.
This is what insurance is for in the U.S. and yes it can be expensive, but well worth it if you live in an area that's affected by natural disasters.
737. beell
From the "Let's run with an attention-grabbing headline and worry about the science later" department.

Deadliest Tornado Outbreak in Decades Was Fueled by Smoke From Land Clearing
April 2011 saw the worst day of U.S. tornadoes since 1974, and a new analysis points to fires in Central America as part of the cause.-National Geographic/February 9th, 2015


"We're not saying that the outbreak happened because of the smoke," "We're saying that, given the conditions already in place, the smoke intensified the tornadoes."
Pablo Saide, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Iowa, in Iowa City...

"This case is such an outlier in so many ways, it makes it difficult for me to believe the findings,"
Greg Carbin, a meteorologist at the the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma...

In the hopes of convincing Carbin and the forecasting community of the power of aerosols, Saide plans to test his simulations on other tornado outbreaks.
Quoting 669. Gearsts:

Are you trolling?
Of course.
The storm tracked a bit farther west. Roads are covered and it looks like we'll be in it for a few more hours. Snow on top of snow here.
Quoting 733. tampabaymatt:




IF that verifies, then that is some welcome news for the four corners region. Crossin' fingers.

Also, in response to 722. sar2401, if i remember correctly (and I probably didn't) the WPC had your area higher on previous runs.. then lowered it as they shifted totals north and east. Soooo... hey look, it's cold out!
Quoting 735. NativeSun:

Their probably longer cycles and a lot more we don't about the sun, it's cycles' and the effects it has on our planet. We've only really been studying the sun in earnest for a few years in the grand scheme of things.


The planet doesn't warm by magic. Stop with the pseudo scientific garbage already. We have a more than solid body of evidence that you refuse to acknowledge, we get it.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
421 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015


DCZ001-MDZ013-014-VAZ026-038>040-050>054-502-507- 261700-
/O.CON.KLWX.WW.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-150226T1700Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-ROCKINGHAM-
GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-ORANGE-CULPEPER-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-
NORTHERN VA BLUE RIDGE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...ANNAPOLIS...HARRISONBURG...
CULPEPER...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...
FALLS CHURCH...BIG MEADOWS
421 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
TODAY...

* LOCATIONS...WASHINGTON DC AND MOST MARYLAND AND VIRGINIA
SUBURBS...ALONG WITH THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND NORTH-
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES.

* TIMING...THROUGH THE MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL DURING
THE MORNING COMMUTE.

* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BE SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY...
PARTICULARLY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SUBURBS.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...NEAR 30 DEGREES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$



the next storm more snow for boston!
Quoting 732. tampabaymatt:


Matt did you get any rain?..not a drop here just some wind early this morning
I've noticed that most of the warmest water in the equatorial Pacific ocean is located in the central and western Pacific basins, and a cooling trend in the east Pacific basin. I've also noticed that some of the atmospheric effects of an el nino are bakwards, characteristics of modoki el nino. So, what are the chances/probabilities of a modoki el nino developing?
Quoting 744. LargoFl:

Matt did you get any rain?..not a drop here just some wind early this morning


Same here! Not a single drop. I woke up around 3 AM and checked the radar and it looked like a solid line was heading our way. Then, when I really woke up at 5:30, my rain gauge showed nothing and n
Quoting 744. LargoFl:

Matt did you get any rain?..not a drop here just some wind early this morning


Same here! Not a drop of rain. I woke up at 3 AM and checked the radar and it looked like a solid line was heading towards us. Then, when I really woke up at 5:30, the rain gauge showed that nothing happened and everything was dry outside. Weird.....
Sorry about the semi double post.
evidence??? its flawed. growth of concrete has outpaced the warming
Quoting 748. islander101010:

evidence??? its flawed. growth of concrete has outpaced the warming


Rural and Urban areas have shown the same increasing trend. The Arctic is warming faster than just about anywhere on the planet. And if you are going to respond to my comment, at least have the guts to quote my post. Thanks for playing as always.
.17 today on top of .29 on Tuesday gives me a Monthly total so far of 3.97" for February with more rain to end out February which all short range models shows atleast a solid 1" of rain from Friday night thru Saturday across C FL.

Afghans in frantic search for avalanche survivors
BBC, 26 February 2015 Last updated at 10:24 GMT
Afghan rescuers are searching for dozens of people believed to be trapped under snow after a series of deadly avalanches north of the capital, Kabul.
Officials said at least 187 people had been killed and 129 injured after homes were deluged with snow.
Funerals for the victims, mostly from Panjshir province, have been delayed because of the snow.
The extreme weather came after a relatively dry and mild winter, and took locals by surprise. ...


Afghanistan avalanches: more than 180 dead
Officials warned of an imminent humanitarian emergency in areas most severely hit by the heavy snow
Reuters in Kabul, Thursday 26 February 2015 12.09 GMT
... “We haven’t seen this much snow, or this many avalanches, for 30 years,” said Abdul Rahman Kabiri, acting governor of the mountainous province of Panjshir, north of Kabul, where 186 people were killed and more than 100 injured in avalanches.
Despite bringing misery to so many people, the snow is vital for Afghanistan, where much of the rural population dependent on agriculture relies on snow melting in the mountains to sustain crops in the spring and summer. An unusually dry winter had led to fears of drought. ...


-------------------------------------------

Good morning from Europe with a huge cyclone over Iceland ("Winfried") and its front approaching the continent and surface low "Volker" near Sicily (embedded in a deep trough) annoying the folks in the Mediterranean.




Click to enlarge. Source.

Blizzard and Avalanche Risk in West Fjords
Iceland Review, By Eygló Svala Arnarsdóttir, February 26, 2015 09:27Updated: February 26, 2015 09:29

Well, and that's Europe as well, from Iceland down to the coast of Libya - yesterday I've read elsewhere that brutal smugglers in failed state Libya now recklessly force refugees out to sea in small dinghies, no matter how bad the weather is and how high waves may roar:

Icelandic Ship Assists in Rescue of 300 Refugees
Iceland Review, By Zoë Robert, February 26, 2015 00:02Updated: February 26, 2015 00:15
Icelandic Coast Guard vessel Týr assisted in the rescue of 284 refugees in the Mediterranean on Tuesday. A total of 184 refugees were rescued from two small dinghies north of the Libyan coast, ruv.is reports.
A further 100 refugees were rescued by an Italian patrol boat and transferred to Týr for treatment, meaning that there are currently 284 refugees, 163 men, 20 women, some of whom were pregnant, and one child, on board Týr. The patrol boat is heading for Italy and was expected to dock in Augusta in Sicily early yesterday afternoon. ...
Sub surface warm pool continues to grow further with now 5C anomalies beginning to show up. Very impressive warm pool gathering.

cloudy and cold in east haven right now with temp around 20F
The boy who cried El Nino is still at it. Lol
Quoting 745. tiggerhurricanes2001:

I've noticed that most of the warmest water in the equatorial Pacific ocean is located in the central and western Pacific basins, and a cooling trend in the east Pacific basin. I've also noticed that some of the atmospheric effects of an el nino are bakwards, characteristics of modoki el nino. So, what are the chances/probabilities of a modoki el nino developing?
Very good, unless you listen to a certain blogger on here.



LIGHT SNOW COMING TO EAST HAVEN SOON!!
Quoting 754. jrweatherman:

The boy who cried El Nino is still at it. Lol
El Nino will be here soon by spring time
Going to get hot next week could even be some areas across the interior that hit 90.

759. MahFL
I had a power outage last night from 2:30 am to 6:30 am. We got 0.47 in of rain from the squall line here in Orange Park.
Quoting 745. tiggerhurricanes2001:

I've noticed that most of the warmest water in the equatorial Pacific ocean is located in the central and western Pacific basins, and a cooling trend in the east Pacific basin. I've also noticed that some of the atmospheric effects of an el nino are bakwards, characteristics of modoki el nino. So, what are the chances/probabilities of a modoki el nino developing?


I don't even know how often they occur, last one was what 2004?
Quoting 757. hurricanes2018:

El Nino will be here soon by spring time


Yup by CPC's criteria we should have an official declaration of El-Nino this Spring as we have met the 5 month criteria and Nino 3.4 continues to rise as there is a large warm pool gathering beneath that region. I think this is why so many models have Nino 3.4 rising over 1C come June.

NINO 1 2 NINO 3 NINO 3.4 NIN0 4 N. ATL S. ATL TROPICS
MONTH 0-10S 5N-5S 5N-5S 5N-5S 5N-20N 0-20S 10N-10S
90W-80W 150W-90W 170W-120W 160E-150W 60W-30W 30W-10E 0W-360W
JAN 15 -0.4 24.1 0.4 26.00.5 27.1 0.9 29.2 0.1 26.1 0.1 25.7 0.2 27.9
DEC 14 0.1 22.9 0.8 25.9 0.8 27.4 0.9 29.4 0.0 26.8 -0.4 24.4 0.3 28.0
NOV 14 0.7 22.3 0.9 25.9 0.9 27.5 0.9 29.5 0.1 27.7 -0.5 23.5 0.3 28.0
OCT 14 0.8 21.5 0.7 25.6 0.5 27.2 0.6 29.3 0.3 28.4 -0.1 23.3 0.3 27.8
SEP 14 1.0 21.3 0.5 25.3 0.5 27.2 0.7 29.3 0.1 28.2 -0.1 23.0 0.3 27.5

some of these latest models have a Eastern Based El-Nino which is characteristic of what one would expect when looking for a stronger El-Nino. .



All of this rain across C FL being depicted by the NAM is from Friday Night thru Saturday. As usual all the models agree on this except the GFS.

Quoting 712. Storms306:

Heavy wet snow falling in Pitt county now. Sticking to anything and everything.


Greenville NC?
Here comes Summerlike temps.

We can't mix the long term trend with short term trends which are indeed influenced by short term factors like ENSO cycles, solar 11-year cycle, PDO, AMO indexes and others...
Global sticks and hiatuses are normal to follow one after the other.
We don't have to give them more importance to what they effectively have.
Quoting hurricanes2018:
El Nino will be here soon by spring time


That has been said for the past year and a half.
Quoting 765. maxcrc:

We can't mix the long term trend with short term trends which are indeed influenced by short term factors like ENSO cycles, solar 11-year cycle, PDO, AMO indexes and others...
Global sticks and hiatuses are normal to follow one after the other.
We don't have to give them more importance to what they effectively have.


And scientists who've looked at all of these different influences on temperature have shown that the warming trend from the enhanced greenhouse effect continues, unchanged.
Quoting ScottLincoln:

And scientists who've looked at all of these different influences on temperature have shown that the warming trend from the enhanced greenhouse effect continues, unchanged.


But scientists can also be wrong.
Quoting 763. win1gamegiantsplease:



Greenville NC?
Pittsylvania county VA and we have a grand total of 8 inches here.
Quoting 768. jrweatherman:



But scientists can also be wrong.

Sure they can. But are you honestly telling me that you are going to live your whole life not believing what scientists say about anything because of the tiny chance that "scientists can also be wrong?"
That just doesn't make logical sense, and the results wouldn't be in your favor.

I recommend that you look into the concept of risk and how it is typically evaluated. One big example... do emergency managers wait until the chance of a hurricane eyewall strike is 100% before they begin taking substantial action that has high cost? Do the storm surge exceedance probability maps often indicate values above 50-60%?
Quoting 766. jrweatherman:



That has been said for the past year and a half.
Quoting 768. jrweatherman:



But scientists can also be wrong.


Certainly, but without any supporting evidence that just an unjustified accusation or maybe even a libelous attack, depending on the situation.

At this point, maybe science should be a package deal...don't support 200 years of climate science, then sorry, we are all out of antibiotics and internets.
Quoting 737. beell:

From the "Let's run with an attention-grabbing headline and worry about the science later" department.

Deadliest Tornado Outbreak in Decades Was Fueled by Smoke From Land Clearing
April 2011 saw the worst day of U.S. tornadoes since 1974, and a new analysis points to fires in Central America as part of the cause.-National Geographic/February 9th, 2015


"We're not saying that the outbreak happened because of the smoke," "We're saying that, given the conditions already in place, the smoke intensified the tornadoes."
Pablo Saide, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Iowa, in Iowa City...

"This case is such an outlier in so many ways, it makes it difficult for me to believe the findings,"
Greg Carbin, a meteorologist at the the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma...

In the hopes of convincing Carbin and the forecasting community of the power of aerosols, Saide plans to test his simulations on other tornado outbreaks.

I'm glad that more research was being done. I certainly didn't find a single study convincing.

Intriguing? Raises interesting questions? Sure.
Convincing? Not yet.



El Nino start to go up in later march into april its move up fast!!
Quoting 769. Storms306:

Pittsylvania county VA and we have a grand total of 8 inches here.


Ah, southwest Virginia, where your weather becomes the Triad's problem when watching the television. I remember a while ago watching the NCAA Tourney and there was a tornado watch or something and Henry County or Halifax County had a warning and they put the game in a little corner and talked about the weather happening ~2 hrs away. God forbid too, I think Duke was playing...
Crazy winds last night but things have calmed down. No rain here at all. I'm off to the links.

Jrweatherman. - listen to the smart guys. It took me a long time but I did.
Winter Storm Remus Hits the South: Drivers Stranded on Alabama Roads Overnight; Hundreds of Thousands Without Power Published Feb 26 2015 09:05 AM EST Winter Storm Remus dumped as much as a foot of snow on the South, and its trek will continue up the East Coast on Thursday.

In addition to heavy snow, the storm system left hundreds of thousands without power. Businesses and schools were closed as the entire region slowed to a halt when the snow began to fall.

Here's the latest on the storm:

Alabama
More than a foot of snow was reported in parts of northern Alabama from Remus. The storm's highest total so far, 12.7 inches, was reported in Guin and confirmed by the National Weather Service.

The National Weather Service in Huntsville issued a local area emergency in 10 northern Alabama counties, as roads in the area became increasingly treacherous throughout the day Wednesday. Wednesday night, roads were all but impassable because of heavy snow, according to local reports.

In Marion County in northwest Alabama, at least one person was injured when a tree fell on a mobile home, the National Weather Service reported Wednesday.

A few thousand power outages lingered Thursday morning across North Alabama, according to local utility companies.

Many schools in the state have announced closures for Thursday. Click here for the latest list.

Arkansas
Snow changed to rain over most of Arkansas Wednesday night, but some parts of the state reported snow accumulations of up to 8 inches at the height of the storm.

In advance of the storm, some school districts canceled Wednesday classes with many more closings and delayed reporting for Thursday, as well.
Good Morning. We only had a few strong t-storms come through Tallahassee last night when the front/low came through. One of the strongest cells passed through downtown around 8:15 heading NE towards my parts north of town. Went outside to watch it from the garage and it was quite exciting, with all the tall trees silhouetted against the sky, swaying as the outflow got nearer; had a couple of gusts in the range of 40-50 mph really bend them over in a 60 second span then the power went out in the neighborhood. Got to see the whole event from outside and the power was back on by 11:30...............No vid as it was too dark but super cool.
Cyclone Marcia leaves thousands of tourism jobs at risk
Brisbane Times, February 26, 2015 - 6:30AM
Thousands of tourism jobs on the cyclone-hit Capricornia Coast could be lost if the region's national parks are not quickly repaired, a senior tourism figure says.
The region's big tourism drawcards - the rainforest of coastal Byfield National Park and Great Keppel Island – were both extensively damaged by Cyclone Marcia last week.
There are still 100 national parks and protected areas on the Capricornia Coast closed or badly damaged, according to Queensland Parks and Wildlife Service's Environmental Recovery Unit executive director Clive Cook. ...



The main access road to Byfield National Park after Tropical Cyclone Marcia. Photo: Queensland Parks and Wildlife Se
Whole article see link above.
780. jpsb
Quoting 424. Naga5000:

Mass agricultural production is not done in a greenhouse.

CO2 is good for your greenhouse, mass agriculture is not done in greenhouses.


Hmmm, food for thought, good info I will look into it.
Quoting 776. luvtogolf:

Crazy winds last night but things have calmed down. No rain here at all. I'm off to the links.

Jrweatherman. - listen to the smart guys. It took me a long time but I did.


Have a good one! We picked up .28 in about 35 minutes here in Orlando, lots of wind, and a clap of thunder.
The Wife was very upset because her and her visiting sisters were lined up in the living room, waiting for Empire to come on at 9:00 when the power went out...........Exciting for me and a bummer for them......................... :)
Good morning everyone. HUGE busted forecast here in Charlotte. Even after the storm had begun, local mets predicted 7-10, NWS 5-9, and TWC 5-8. Official storm total ended up at 1.8". Sad day for snow lovers
Here is the NWS Conus weather outlook for today; nice to see some potential snowpack for parts of the NW but they need more further South in the Sierras/CA to help water supplies there for the Spring once the wet season ends:

Heavy rain and mountain snow is in store for the Pacific Northwest as a fresh batch of Arctic air surges through the central U.S

Conditions will become increasingly wet over the West the next few days as a system dives southward down the British Columbia coast. Pacific moisture will fuel soaking rain and accumulating mountain snow over western Washington Wednesday night then shift south over western Oregon on Thursday. Meanwhile, a fresh batch of Arctic air will continue to plunge through the central U.S.


Quoting 782. weathermanwannabe:

The Wife was very upset because her and her visiting sisters were lined up in the living room, waiting for Empire to come on at 9:00 when the power went out...........Exciting for me and a bummer for them......................... :)


I feel your pain. That show is awful, but the wife is a big fan.
Quoting 775. win1gamegiantsplease:



Ah, southwest Virginia, where your weather becomes the Triad's problem when watching the television. I remember a while ago watching the NCAA Tourney and there was a tornado watch or something and Henry County or Halifax County had a warning and they put the game in a little corner and talked about the weather happening ~2 hrs away. God forbid too, I think Duke was playing...
Yeah the local mets are pretty crazy when it comes to weather around here. If a nice squall line starts this way, every news station will take over the entire channel for 45 mins to an hour saying how dangerous wind and lightening is. Almost like we have never had a thunderstorm here. Lol
And here is the current Conus Jet per GFS driving the NW system:




Quoting 785. tampabaymatt:



I feel your pain. That show is awful, but the wife is a big fan.
All the pre-show hype from them is what drove me outside anyway and the approaching storm was the perfect excuse for me to bail..................
789. jpsb
Quoting 586. weblackey:



I am delurking, uh oh.

Don't overlook this very important part of Jedkins' comment: "...it's only as good as the people who run it, but it's better than the other forms of government, despite it's many flaws and weaknesses"

I agree with that, capitalism without moderation is not healthy, nor sustainable, and not only in the ecological sense, economically too. Seems to me he wasn't bashing capitalism, he was critiquing it.


Unrestrained capitalism would be a cruel form of economics to live under. Capitalism moderated by humane (Christian) law and implemented by honest men is the best economic system yet devised. Once long ago in the USA we had such a system, today not so much.
Quoting 783. CarolinaHurricanes87:

Good morning everyone. HUGE busted forecast here in Charlotte. Even after the storm had begun, local mets predicted 7-10, NWS 5-9, and TWC 5-8. Official storm total ended up at 1.8". Sad day for snow lovers


Just saw some pictures my family took in High Point, looks to be about what the NWS predicted (4-8", looks to be close to half a foot maybe less). Of course they're in Raleigh's zone whereas Charlotte is GSA.

edit: looked at the preliminary report, PTI received 6.4", that's about 7 miles from where the photos were taken so not a bad guess. Proud'a myself ;^)
I have a poly-sci degree and one of the best books out there, if still in print, is the "Dictionary of Political Terms"; it defines words like socialism, communism, conservatism, etc and actually breaks down the origins of the words, the proponents, and major writings. One of the biggest problems today, in social and political circles, is that people throw the words around to try and slander people (they are commies, liberals, right-wingers, etc) as a scare tactic and they don't even know the actual meaning of the words. The world has changed alot in the past 40 years and many people/politicians/governments actually have "hybrid" forms of government or beliefs. Case in point; the Chinese are "communists" but arguably, they are currently some of the best "capitalists" in the world........Just Sayin.
792. jpsb
Quoting 625. DCSwithunderscores:



FAKE!

That Time magazine cover is fake. The image of the penguin is from April 9, 2007 Time magazine, but the headline that went with it on the cover was "The Global Warming Survival Guide". Someone took an image of that cover and changed the headline to "How To Survive The Coming Ice Age", and changed the date to April 9, 1977.

This just shows the level of deceit that some people go to to promote their anti-science agenda.

Here's an article that tells the story of that altered Time magazine cover:

Link


Nice catch, using fake data and faking documents is a serious offense. I will give the poster the benefit of the doubt that he got fooled by not going to the ordinal source. The same has happened to me, very embarrassing! These days I check my sources carefully :)
Good Morning..

Brad Panovich Meteorologist
45 mins ·

No excuses for last night it was a big miss South of I-85 and to a much lesser amount north. Still worth reading about what we do and here's, Breaking News we aren't right all the time!

Perspective on the accuracy of Meterologists
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:
Good morning everyone. HUGE busted forecast here in Charlotte. Even after the storm had begun, local mets predicted 7-10, NWS 5-9, and TWC 5-8. Official storm total ended up at 1.8". Sad day for snow lovers


Checking the overnight observations it appears it was just a little too warm. Precipitation was light rain at one point during the early morning hours and snow mixed with mist during most observations.
Quoting 785. tampabaymatt:



I feel your pain. That show is awful, but the wife is a big fan.


Funny..its the highest rated new TV show so most of America disagrees with you..I enjoy it myself..could use some Cookie here on this blog...
796. jpsb
Quoting 643. DCSwithunderscores:



Here's a recent article from Climate Central that shows that the rate of decline of arctic sea ice is greater than the rate of increase of antarctic sea ice, and thus that the global sea ice trend is downward:

Link

Here's a short video that explains why we shouldn't be fooled by claims that arctic sea ice is increasing:

Link





use image info the get the source.
Quoting 768. jrweatherman:



But scientists can also be wrong.
As can amateur bloggers!
Quoting 757. hurricanes2018:

El Nino will be here soon by spring time
Modoki, can you say Modoki all summer long.
Unrestrained capitalism would be a cruel form of economics to live under. Capitalism moderated by humane (Christian) law and implemented by honest men is the best economic system yet devised. Once long ago in the USA we had such a system, today not so much.


in a republic...if you govern under "christian" law....a type of religious based law...then you leave open the basis of your law...to the "christian" view of the elected officials...if the demographics of that populace changes...so does the application of the "christian "laws.......a very slippery slope
Quoting 716. KoritheMan:

Gustav and Ike were, for all intents and purposes, major hurricanes if we're defining solely wind impact. 90 and 95 kt really isn't meaningfully different from 100 kt, where major hurricane starts.
Good morning Kori. I commented a long time ago that Ike was worse than some of the majors we have seen..Ike was a monster.

Quoting 757. hurricanes2018:

El Nino will be here soon by spring time
Modoki, can you say Modoki all summer long.


i believe the phrase that fits would be....those that do not learn from the past.....are bound to repeat it.....we're seeing a repeat of last year...not only in the models...but in the posting of bloggers.....let me expound....

we're in the springtime barrier period.....a time when the models show grievous errors

we're seeing the enso regions of 1/2 and 3 fall......we're seeing a rise in the 3.4 and 4 regions by a weak westerly wind anomaly which was explained by the aussie mets as typical of a decaying el nino....

when we look at the westerly wind push..and also looking at the equatorial water anomalies.....we see a warm anomaly similar to last year pushing west...however it is later than last year...and we saw last year...that due to the timing...and due to ocean temperatures that had risen due to spring and summertime heating...that kelvin wave had little to no affect on ocean temperatures.....by calcualting the temp of the kelvin wave...and referencing the may/june temps of the area of ocean at the 1/2 enso regions...we can expect the same this year......

one note when looking at the water temp anomalies...is there is a very cold wave starting to traverse across the enso 4 area...when this reaches the surface in the next 30/60 days...we should see anomalies quickly drop in the 3.4 and 4 enso regions





Quoting NativeSun:
Modoki, can you say Modoki all summer long.




it wont be a Modoki
Quoting 794. Sfloridacat5:



Checking the overnight observations it appears it was just a little too warm. Precipitation was light rain at one point during the early morning hours and snow mixed with mist during most observations.



Began as rain, changed quickly to snow (VERY heavy for short periods), but what was supposed to be snow all night unexpectedly changed back to a heavy, soaking rain with just a few wet flakes mixed in. Usually our problem is a warm nose creeping up and giving us an ice storm, but this time there just wasn't enough cold air at the surface. Temps hovered between 32 and 34 degrees most of the night.

There was a very tight gradient that made this forecast so difficult- the storm had a built in "high bust potential". Southern parts of Mecklenburg County (Charlotte) got practically nothing, after the rain melted away the initial burst of snow. Northern parts of the county received between 4 and 7 inches. Wake County (Raleigh) had a very similar scenario play out, but unlike Charlotte, the heart of Raleigh was north of the rain/snow line.

Very disappointed I didn't get to see a real snow storm out of this, but can't blame the forecasters when 10 or 20 miles makes such a huge difference
Quoting 796. jpsb:






use image info the get the source.


Yes, clearly it has been trending downward. Notice how often the red curve is below the black line after say 2000 compared to before 2000, especially compared to near the beginning of the period shown.

You could probably find a graph that shows it better, in which that red curve is expanded vertically, and in which a trend line is shown.

The decline in arctic sea ice volume is even more dramatic than the decline in arctic sea ice area.
Quoting 765. maxcrc:

We can't mix the long term trend with short term trends which are indeed influenced by short term factors like ENSO cycles, solar 11-year cycle, PDO, AMO indexes and others...
Global sticks and hiatuses are normal to follow one after the other.
We don't have to give them more importance to what they effectively have.


Can someone explain this a bit more? I thinkI understand what he's saying, but I'm not absolutely sure :/
Quoting 805. LAbonbon:


Can someone explain this a bit more? I thinkI understand what he's saying, but I'm not absolutely sure :/


The trend is more important than fluctuations about the trend.
Quoting 802. Tazmanian:





it wont be a Modoki


Yup it looks as if we might be looking at a Central to Eastern Based El-Nino. Nino 3.4 is back above 0.8C and will likely go much higher come May as this sub surface warm pool surfaces and expands east toward South America. This warm pool is the reason for the drastic up tick in its nino values come June and with the PDO staying at or near record levels is a good sign that this years El-Nino will not bust infact we have met the 5 consecutive month readings of .5 or higher for Nino 3.4 so this El-Nino could be declared in April.
Quoting LongIslandBeaches:


IF that verifies, then that is some welcome news for the four corners region. Crossin' fingers.

Also, in response to 722. sar2401, if i remember correctly (and I probably didn't) the WPC had your area higher on previous runs.. then lowered it as they shifted totals north and east. Soooo... hey look, it's cold out!
No, you don't remember correctly. The challenge was if the WPC forecast for SE AL, issued last Sunday and covering the period though yesterday, would prove correct. Nothing changes in that scenario. You are certainly welcome to check the WPC archive for each 24 hour forecast issued during the 24 hour period leading up to yesterday and see if the forecast improved. You'll find that it didn't.
Quoting 722. sar2401:


(snip)


For anyone following the WPC challenge, the WPC QPF forecast from last Sunday through 6:00 CST today showed a total of 2" to 2.5" in SE AL. From Sunday until Wednesday midnight, I had 1.15" of rain. From 000 Wednesday until 1800 today, I got another 2.65" (!). My day total rainfall though midnight on 2/25 was 2.95" (!). So, instead of around 2.5" for the period, I got 3.80". It's kind of hard to fault the WPC on this one, since I don't believe any forecasts anticipated what actually happened here today. If we ignore the predicted totals, the WPC correctly forecast we'd get substantial rain in the four day period, and they were right about that. Still, if you're going to forecast amounts, ~2.50" compared to the actual of 3.80" is a pretty big miss. What concerns me is that the WPC has pretty consistently missed in my area on upside variance, and this is yet another example.



For my area, BTR airport received 1.56"; the WPC had us in the 1-1.25 range, but close proximity to the 1.25-1.5 range, so close enough to 'ballpark' for me :)
Quoting 806. jpsb:



I see our solar expert has asserted as fact that the Sun does not have any effect on Earth's climate. He should send NOAA a memo straight away.

From NOAA
One interesting aspect of solar cycles is that the sun went through a period of near zero sunspot activity from about 1645 to 1715. This period of sunspot minima is called the Maunder Minimum. The "Little Ice Age" occurred over parts of Earth during the Maunder Minimum. So how much does the solar output affect Earth's climate? There is debate within the scientific community how much solar activity can, or does affect Earth's climate. There is research which shows evidence that Earth's climate is sensitive to very weak changes in the Sun's energy output over time frames of 10s and 100s of years. Times of maximum sunspot activity are associated with a very slight increase in the energy output from the sun. Ultraviolet radiation increases dramatically during high sunspot activity, which can have a large effect on the Earth's atmosphere. The converse is true during minimum sunspot activity. But trying to filter the influence of the Sun's energy output and its effect on our climate with the "noise" created by a complex interaction between our atmosphere, land and oceans can be difficult.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/fsd/?n=sunspots

One should not assert as fact what ones does not know with certainty.


I didn't say that at all. Stop putting words in my mouth. I have tried to explain to you numerous times that the sun is one of the many forcings. You seem to think we haven't been able to measure the forcings...I really can't make this any clearer, please refrain from attributing statements to me that I didn't make.



Why is this so hard for you to understand?
812. jpsb
Quoting 799. ricderr:

Unrestrained capitalism would be a cruel form of economics to live under. Capitalism moderated by humane (Christian) law and implemented by honest men is the best economic system yet devised. Once long ago in the USA we had such a system, today not so much.


in a republic...if you govern under "christian" law....a type of religious based law...then you leave open the basis of your law...to the "christian" view of the elected officials...if the demographics of that populace changes...so does the application of the "christian "laws.......a very slippery slope

I did not bring this topic up, but since it is under discussion

light snow at my house!
Quoting 812. jpsb:


I did not bring this topic up, but since it is under discussion




Context helps...

"In 1956, the nation was at a particularly tense time in the Cold War, and the United States wanted to distinguish itself from the Soviet Union, which promoted state atheism.As a result, the 84th Congress passed a joint resolution "declaring IN GOD WE TRUST the national motto of the United States." The law was signed by President Eisenhower on July 30, 1956, and the motto was progressively added to paper money over a period from 1957 to 1966. (Public Law 84-851) The United States Code at 36 U.S.C. § 302, now states: "'In God we trust' is the national motto.""
I am going to stick to the weather as much as I can but have to respond to the post below; "In God We Trust" went went out the window for a period of time in the US when we used slave labor for a few hundreds of years and didn't start equalizing the tables for women and minorities in the Country up through the the 1960s (Civil Rights) and current social issues we are still grappling with.................I will keep quiet now..................... :)
Quoting 811. Naga5000:



I didn't say that at all. Stop putting words in my mouth. I have tried to explain to you numerous times that the sun is one of the many forcings. You seem to think we haven't been able to measure the forcings...I really can't make this any clearer, please refrain from attributing statements to me that I didn't make.



Why is this so hard for you to understand?


I'd say because he doesn't want to.
Quoting 812. jpsb:


I did not bring this topic up, but since it is under discussion



So, is this a government mandate?
thanx jp....but when we observe when was that added...and the reasoning behind it....i think it confirms my point..it sure didn't come from our founding fathers

from the dept of the treasury

The motto IN GOD WE TRUST was placed on United States coins largely because of the increased religious sentiment existing during the Civil War. Secretary of the Treasury Salmon P. Chase received many appeals from devout persons throughout the country, urging that the United States recognize the Deity on United States coins. From Treasury Department records, it appears that the first such appeal came in a letter dated November 13, 1861. It was written to Secretary Chase by Rev. M. R. Watkinson, Minister of the Gospel from Ridleyville, Pennsylvania, and read:
Quoting 764. StormTrackerScott:

Here comes Summerlike temps.




Only for some of us. :-(
extreme cold warning
for southern Ontario
issued by Environment Canada
at 10:33 a.M. EST Thursday 26 February 2015.
------------------------------------------------- --------------------
Extreme cold warning for:
=new= City of Toronto
=new= Windsor - Essex - Chatham-Kent
=new= Sarnia - Lambton
=new= Elgin
=new= London - Middlesex
=new= Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk
=new= Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand
=new= Oxford - Brant
=new= City of Hamilton
=new= Halton - Peel
=new= York - Durham
=new= Huron - Perth
=new= Waterloo - Wellington
=new= Dufferin - Innisfil
=new= Grey - Bruce
=new= Barrie - Orillia - Midland
=new= Belleville - Quinte - Northumberland
=new= Kingston - Prince Edward
=new= Peterborough - Kawartha Lakes
=new= Stirling - Tweed - South Frontenac.

------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==Discussion==


A period of very cold wind chills is expected.

A frigid Arctic airmass will combine with light to moderate winds to
produce wind chill values between minus 30 and minus 35 overnight
and early Friday morning.

While anyone who isn't dressed warmly is at risk in cold weather
conditions, some are at greater risk than others for frost bite and
hypothermia:
- homeless people
- outdoor workers
- people living in homes that are poorly insulated (with no heat or
no power)
- people with certain medical conditions such as diabetes,
peripheral neuropathy and diseases affecting the blood vessels,
people taking certain medications including Beta-blockers
- winter sport enthusiasts
- people who consume excess alcohol
- infants and
- seniors.

Wear appropriate clothing.
- Always wear clothing appropriate for the weather. Synthetic and
wool fabrics provide better insulation. Some synthetic fabrics are
designed to keep perspiration away from your body which keep you dry
and further reduce your risk.
- Dress in layers with a wind resistant outer layer. You can remove
layers if you get too warm (before you start sweating) or add a
layer if you get cold.
- Wear warm socks, gloves, a hat and scarf in cold weather. Be sure
to cover your nose to protect it.
- If you get wet, change into dry clothing as soon as possible. You
lose heat faster when you're wet.

Extreme cold warnings are issued when very cold temperatures or wind
chill creates an elevated risk to health such as frost bite and
hypothermia.

Environment Canada meteorologists will update alerts as required, so
stay tuned to your local media or weatheradio. Email reports of
severe weather to storm.Ontario(at)ec.Gc.CA or tweet with the hashtag
(hash)onstorm.

Http://weather.Gc.CA/warnings/index(underscore)e. Html?Prov=son

End/MSC

Quoting 796. jpsb:






use image info the get the source.


the image shows the decline in global sea ice
823. jpsb
Quoting 811. Naga5000:



I didn't say that at all. Stop putting words in my mouth. I have tried to explain to you numerous times that the sun is one of the many forcings. You seem to think we haven't been able to measure the forcings...I really can't make this any clearer, please refrain from attributing statements to me that I didn't make.



Why is this so hard for you to understand?


Your argument, at least as I understand it, is that the only influence the Sun has on Earth's climate can be measured in watt per meter squared at the top on the atmosphere. I disagree, I think the interact between the Earth and the Sun is far more complex and that we have much more to learn. Dr Soon work on comic rays and cloud formation being one area of interest. The 60 year cycle and 200 year cycle are also of interest. There might even be a 100,000 year cycle which might help explain the 100,000 year problem.

Re putting words into your mouth. You described as "pseudo scientific garbage" NativeSun's conjecture that the Sun effects Earth climate. I am merely offering my support to his conjecture which I do not think is "pseudo scientific garbage ".

Quoting 789. jpsb:



Unrestrained capitalism would be a cruel form of economics to live under. Capitalism moderated by humane (Christian) law and implemented by honest men is the best economic system yet devised. Once long ago in the USA we had such a system, today not so much.
Sorry, but the US has never been governed by a theocracy, as you imply by your last sentence. There are some folks pushing revisionist history, but they are incorrect. Capitalism moderated by honest folk and laws is indeed the best of all scenarios, but no thanks to laws promulgated by any religion, no matter which one.

A government and people can be moral without a religious basis.


As for weather, back to your regular programming: Central Raleigh got around 4" of heavy wet snow, a lot of tree branches and whole small trees down, one is currently hanging on the cable/phone lines serving our part of the street, eek! Hopefully it will be removed safely without losing service. I'd hate to not be able to read here ;-)
Streets are slushy but drivable, not like the ice we had last week. But tomorrow morning will be bad as all that slush is going to freeze overnight.
Quoting 802. Tazmanian:





it wont be a Modoki
No one can't say at this time if the El nino will be modoki or not or if we will have and El nino at all. Some have made it their day job to constantly post about the el nino and the 100% chance they give of development but the best thing to do is wait and see how the enso slowly evolve.

Quoting 819. ricderr:

thanx jp....but when we observe when was that added...and the reasoning behind it....i think it confirms my point..it sure didn't come from our founding fathers

from the dept of the treasury

The motto IN GOD WE TRUST was placed on United States coins largely because of the increased religious sentiment existing during the Civil War. Secretary of the Treasury Salmon P. Chase received many appeals from devout persons throughout the country, urging that the United States recognize the Deity on United States coins. From Treasury Department records, it appears that the first such appeal came in a letter dated November 13, 1861. It was written to Secretary Chase by Rev. M. R. Watkinson, Minister of the Gospel from Ridleyville, Pennsylvania, and read:
And, they don't specify which god when you look at it. Take your pick, I suppose!
Quoting beell:
From the "Let's run with an attention-grabbing headline and worry about the science later" department.

Deadliest Tornado Outbreak in Decades Was Fueled by Smoke From Land Clearing
April 2011 saw the worst day of U.S. tornadoes since 1974, and a new analysis points to fires in Central America as part of the cause.-National Geographic/February 9th, 2015


"We're not saying that the outbreak happened because of the smoke," "We're saying that, given the conditions already in place, the smoke intensified the tornadoes."
Pablo Saide, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Iowa, in Iowa City...

"This case is such an outlier in so many ways, it makes it difficult for me to believe the findings,"
Greg Carbin, a meteorologist at the the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma...

In the hopes of convincing Carbin and the forecasting community of the power of aerosols, Saide plans to test his simulations on other tornado outbreaks.
That is such good news. Since the number and severity of tornadoes has plunged since the 2011 outbreak in Alabama, that means they've stopped clearing land and burning the debris in Central America.

Greg Carbin did a good job restraining himself.
warming trend init

Quoting 823. jpsb:



Your argument, at least as I understand it, is that the only influence the Sun has on Earth's climate can be measured in watt per meter squared at the top on the atmosphere. I disagree, I think the interact between the Earth and the Sun is far more complex and that we have much more to learn. Dr Soon work on comic rays and cloud formation being one area of interest. The 60 year cycle and 200 year cycle are also of interest. There might even be a 100,000 year cycle which might help explain the 100,000 year problem.

Re putting words into your mouth. You described as "pseudo scientific garbage" NativeSun's conjecture that the Sun effects Earth climate. I am merely offering my support to his conjecture which I do not think is "pseudo scientific garbage ".


Dr. Soon's work was garbage to begin with, before he published unethically, and my statement about pseudo scientific garbage was regarding the sun as being the main driver of climate, which it clearly isn't. Cosmic rays and clouds don't fit

"Benestad (2013) compared cosmic ray flux to global surface temperature changes and found "there is little empirical evidence that links GCR to the recent global warming." In fact, since 1990, galactic cosmic ray flux on Earth has increased - "the opposite direction to that required to explain the observed rise in global mean temperatures" (Lockwood 2007). In fact, cosmic ray on flux recently reached record levels. According to Richard Mewaldt of Caltech, "In 2009, cosmic ray intensities have increased 19% beyond anything we've seen in the past 50 years." Erlykin et al. (2013)"

and

"Numerous studies have also investigated the effectiveness of GCRs in cloud formation (the third step). Kazil et al. (2006) found:

"the variation of ionization by galactic cosmic rays over the decadal solar cycle does not entail a response...that would explain observed variations in global cloud cover."

Sloan and Wolfendale (2008) found:

"we estimate that less than 23%, at the 95% confidence level, of the 11-year cycle changes in the globally averaged cloud cover observed in solar cycle 22 is due to the change in the rate of ionization from the solar modulation of cosmic rays."

Kristjansson et al. (2008) found:

"no statistically significant correlations were found between any of the four cloud parameters and GCR"

Calogovic et al. (2010) found:

"no response of global cloud cover to Forbush decreases at any altitude and latitude."

Kulmala et al. (2010) found

"galactic cosmic rays appear to play a minor role for atmospheric aerosol formation events, and so for the connected aerosol-climate effects as well."

Laken et al. (2013) found

"there is no robust evidence of a widespread link between the cosmic ray flux and clouds."

Krissansen-Totton & Davies (2013) found

"no statistically significant correlations between cosmic rays and global albedo or globally averaged cloud height, and no evidence for any regional or lagged correlations"

In the CERN CLOUD experiments, Almeida et al. (2013) found

"ionising radiation such as the cosmic radiation that bombards the atmosphere from space has negligible influence on the formation rates of these particular aerosols [that form clouds]"
"

So, yeah, pseudo science garbage. I stand by my words.
Quoting 826. weblackey:


And, they don't specify which god when you look at it. Take your pick, I suppose!


I choose Thor, he promised to rid the world of Ice Giants...I don't see any Ice Giants around. Checkmate.
Quoting 783. CarolinaHurricanes87:

Good morning everyone. HUGE busted forecast here in Charlotte. Even after the storm had begun, local mets predicted 7-10, NWS 5-9, and TWC 5-8. Official storm total ended up at 1.8". Sad day for snow lovers
Forecast saw spot on for Chapel Hill NC. I got 8" snow with some sleet and freezing rain on top. Heavy wet snow has brought down a lot of trees and limbs. It's a real winter wonderland mess!
Quoting 823. jpsb:



Your argument, at least as I understand it, is that the only influence the Sun has on Earth's climate can be measured in watt per meter squared at the top on the atmosphere. I disagree, I think the interact between the Earth and the Sun is far more complex and that we have much more to learn. Dr Soon work on comic rays and cloud formation being one area of interest. The 60 year cycle and 200 year cycle are also of interest. There might even be a 100,000 year cycle which might help explain the 100,000 year problem.

Re putting words into your mouth. You described as "pseudo scientific garbage" NativeSun's conjecture that the Sun effects Earth climate. I am merely offering my support to his conjecture which I do not think is "pseudo scientific garbage ".


Occam's razor, jpsb. Why suggest additional, as-yet-unidentified factors to try to explain something that is already explained perfectly well by the current observational data? Plurality should not be posited without necessity. By the way, the cosmic ray hypothesis is essentially dead

"A set of Monte Carlo simulations nevertheless indicated that the weak amplitude of the global mean temperature response associated with GCR could easily be due to chance (p-value = 0.6), and there has been no trend in the GCR. Hence, there is little empirical evidence that links GCR to the recent global warming."
Link

"Evidence is presented from which the contributions of either cosmic rays or solar activity to this warming is deduced. The contribution is shown to be less than 10% of the warming seen in the twentieth century."
Link

"Our analysis shows that, although important in cloud physics the results do not lead to the conclusion that cosmic rays affect atmospheric clouds significantly, at least if H2SO4 is the dominant source of aerosols in the atmosphere. An analysis of the very recent studies of stratospheric aerosol changes following a giant solar energetic particles event shows a similar negligible effect. Recent measurements of the cosmic ray intensity show that a former decrease with time has been reversed. Thus, even if cosmic rays enhanced cloud production, there would be a small global cooling, not warming."
Link
Quoting 832. CuriousAboutClimate:



Occam's razor, jpsb. Why suggest additional, as-yet-unidentified factors to try to explain something that is already explained perfectly well by the current observational data? Plurality should not be posited without necessity. By the way, the cosmic ray hypothesis is essentially dead

"A set of Monte Carlo simulations nevertheless indicated that the weak amplitude of the global mean temperature response associated with GCR could easily be due to chance (p-value = 0.6), and there has been no trend in the GCR. Hence, there is little empirical evidence that links GCR to the recent global warming."
Link

"Evidence is presented from which the contributions of either cosmic rays or solar activity to this warming is deduced. The contribution is shown to be less than 10% of the warming seen in the twentieth century."
Link

"Our analysis shows that, although important in cloud physics the results do not lead to the conclusion that cosmic rays affect atmospheric clouds significantly, at least if H2SO4 is the dominant source of aerosols in the atmosphere. An analysis of the very recent studies of stratospheric aerosol changes following a giant solar energetic particles event shows a similar negligible effect. Recent measurements of the cosmic ray intensity show that a former decrease with time has been reversed. Thus, even if cosmic rays enhanced cloud production, there would be a small global cooling, not warming."
Link


Even if they did, cosmic rays aren't a forcing, the cloud/aerosol is the radiative forcing which is covered in the chart I posted from the IPCC. It's like we are speaking a different language entirely.
Quoting Naga5000:


I didn't say that at all. Stop putting words in my mouth. I have tried to explain to you numerous times that the sun is one of the many forcings. You seem to think we haven't been able to measure the forcings...I really can't make this any clearer, please refrain from attributing statements to me that I didn't make.



Why is this so hard for you to understand?
At least you have been appointed our solar expert. I will keep that in mind whenever any sun type questions come up here. :-)
Anyone have any thoughts on how the Spring tornado season will pan out over the next few months? We know that the biggest "boom" for the Mid-West comes with strong warm Gulf flow colliding with the cooler air from late-Winter fronts entering the Plains from the Rockies. Given the current storm trajectories, and current jet pattern, I am thinking that we might have a strong tornado season this year and that if the atmosphere is responding to a potential El Nino pattern, that we might get a few "low rider" fronts that will cause some boom for parts of the Gulf Coast as well. Too early to know what the transition pattern will fall into from Spring to Summer (it could change from the current one) but I remember our Blogger "Levi" making some good correlations (which I believe he presented to SPC a few years ago) on one of the Pacific indicators with some correlations to tornado season.

Would love to hear from Levi on his thoughts on this issue for the coming few months.
836. jpsb
Quoting 819. ricderr:

thanx jp....but when we observe when was that added...and the reasoning behind it....i think it confirms my point..it sure didn't come from our founding fathers

from the dept of the treasury

The motto IN GOD WE TRUST was placed on United States coins largely because of the increased religious sentiment existing during the Civil War. Secretary of the Treasury Salmon P. Chase received many appeals from devout persons throughout the country, urging that the United States recognize the Deity on United States coins. From Treasury Department records, it appears that the first such appeal came in a letter dated November 13, 1861. It was written to Secretary Chase by Rev. M. R. Watkinson, Minister of the Gospel from Ridleyville, Pennsylvania, and read:


Actually according to wiki the phase has been in use on coins since 1864, but I would like to leave this topic, so my last words will be a quote from Alexis de Tocqueville and then one from Voltaire.

"Liberty cannot be established without morality, nor morality without faith."

"Si Dieu n'existait pas, il faudrait l'inventer."
Translation: If God did not exist, it would be necessary to invent him.
Quoting 820. georgevandenberghe:



Only for some of us. :-(
its coming not summer like but spring like in about 10 days its time for winters eviction and springs arrival
Here are the current tornado watch areas issued by SPC for 2015; not sure if this is updated for the watches issued in parts of North Florida yesterday but it looks that way:

Quoting 825. Gearsts:

No one can't say at this time if the El nino will be modoki or not or if we will have and El nino at all. Some have made it their day job to constantly post about the el nino and the 100% chance they give of development but the best thing to do is wait and see how the enso slowly evolve.
Watch us get a La Niña . :P
Quoting 839. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Watch us get a La Niña . :P
maybe la neutral
Quoting 834. sar2401:

At least you have been appointed our solar expert. I will keep that in mind whenever any sun type questions come up here. :-)


Bout time I was an expert on something. My mom would be proud.
842. jpsb
Quoting 832. CuriousAboutClimate:



Occam's razor, jpsb. Why suggest additional, as-yet-unidentified factors to try to explain something that is already explained perfectly well by the current observational data? Plurality should not be posited without necessity. By the way, the cosmic ray hypothesis is essentially dead

"A set of Monte Carlo simulations nevertheless indicated that the weak amplitude of the global mean temperature response associated with GCR could easily be due to chance (p-value = 0.6), and there has been no trend in the GCR. Hence, there is little empirical evidence that links GCR to the recent global warming."
Link

"Evidence is presented from which the contributions of either cosmic rays or solar activity to this warming is deduced. The contribution is shown to be less than 10% of the warming seen in the twentieth century."
Link

"Our analysis shows that, although important in cloud physics the results do not lead to the conclusion that cosmic rays affect atmospheric clouds significantly, at least if H2SO4 is the dominant source of aerosols in the atmosphere. An analysis of the very recent studies of stratospheric aerosol changes following a giant solar energetic particles event shows a similar negligible effect. Recent measurements of the cosmic ray intensity show that a former decrease with time has been reversed. Thus, even if cosmic rays enhanced cloud production, there would be a small global cooling, not warming."
Link


A wrote a long piece on why I believe what I do for this blog, around #410 or #510. I appreciate your taking the time to reply. but it is lunch time so I will see yall tomorrow.
NO MATTER WHAT WE SAY ,THERE IS BOUND TO BE ONE OF THE FOLLOWING EL NINO, LA NINA MODOKI. AND NEUTRAL THIS HURRICANE SEASON
Quoting 839. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Watch us get a La Niña . :P
Shhh! He's watching...
A government and people can be moral without a religious basis.


Indeed as one does not need a religion for morality, one knows a right from wrong, if you don't, one lacks empathy, not religion.

Kansas comes to mind.

Bill easing prosecution of teachers for harmful materials get Kansas Senate%u2019s OK
BY BRYAN LOWRY


A bill that would make it easier to prosecute teachers and school administrators for using lesson materials deemed harmful to minors gained initial approval in the state Senate on Tuesday.

Senate Bill 56 removes a provision in current law that protects schools from such prosecution. The bill leaves the protection intact for universities, museums and libraries.

A similar bill last year sparked controversy and did not make it to the Senate floor. This year the bill passed easily on a voice vote without a single objection.

Senate Democrats had planned to fight the bill, Sen. David Haley, D-Kansas City, said. However, Haley had stepped out of the chamber and Senate Minority Leader Anthony Hensley, D-Topeka, was in a meeting in his office when the bill came up for discussion.

more,,,,
Quoting Naga5000:


Bout time I was an expert on something. My mom would be proud.
At least it will help Mom overcome the disappointment from that terrible day when you told her you wanted to become a........sociologist!

Sorry, couldn't resist. :-)
Quoting stoormfury:
NO MATTER WHAT WE SAY ,THERE IS BOUND TO BE ONE OF THE FOLLOWING EL NINO, LA NINA MODOKI. AND NEUTRAL THIS HURRICANE SEASON
Your caps lock key is stuck.

There's also the outside chance we could get that clouds and trumpets thing on June 1 also. That would really disrupt hurricane season.
Quoting 835. weathermanwannabe:

Anyone have any thoughts on how the Spring tornado season will pan out over the next few months? We know that the biggest "boom" for the Mid-West comes with strong warm Gulf flow colliding with the cooler air from late-Winter fronts entering the Plains from the Rockies. Given the current storm trajectories, and current jet pattern, I am thinking that we might have a strong tornado season this year and that if the atmosphere is responding to a potential El Nino pattern, that we might get a few "low rider" fronts that will cause some boom for parts of the Gulf Coast as well. Too early to know what the transition pattern will fall into from Spring to Summer (it could change from the current one) but I remember our Blogger "Levi" making some good correlations (which I believe he presented to SPC a few years ago) on one of the Pacific indicators with some correlations to tornado season.

Would love to hear from Levi on his thoughts on this issue for the coming few months.



The problem last year with severe weather was that there was either a lack of moisture return, constant reinforcing arctic air (like what we've seen most of the year so far) early morning convection killing the instability, or weak buoyancy. The last few years have been rather benign in terms of tornadoes. At this same point last year, there were over twice as many tornadoes for the year as there were now. Since last year, i was wondering if teleconnections had any effect on severe weather. Maybe that could be my senior assignment this fall.
Quoting 846. sar2401:

At least it will help Mom overcome the disappointment from that terrible day when you told her you wanted to become a........sociologist!

Sorry, couldn't resist. :-)



It is my lifelong dream to have a double major in basket weaving and art history. :O)
23 more days until Spring.
Quoting 850. Climate175:

23 more days until Spring.
10 days I had enough its time for winter too move on
From NASA Earth Observatory - a quite stunning look at the Arctic

Landsat Goes Over the Top: A Long View of the Arctic


Visuals and text by Kathryn Hansen, Jesse Allen, Robert Simmon, and Matt Radcliff. Design by Paul Przyborski February 12, 2015

On February 11, 2013, the Landsat 8 satellite rocketed into space to extend a four-decade legacy of Earth observations. A few months after launch, we published a composite of images that spanned 9,000 kilometers of land from Russia to South Africa. In celebration of the satellite’s second anniversary, the mosaic concept returns with a chilly twist, this time featuring a slice of the Arctic Circle.

The Operational Land Imager (OLI) on Landsat 8 acquired this unbroken swath of images on June 21, 2014—the summer solstice—when the Sun stays above the horizon of the Arctic for at least 24 hours. While much of the region is still frozen in June, the ice is in various stages of melting.

The Landsat 8 swath begins in Sweden and Finland, then crosses the Greenland Sea and northern Greenland. The scenes then take us over North America, through Canada’s Nunavut and Northwest Territories, before ending up offshore of British Columbia. In its entirety, the flyover covers an area about 6,800 kilometers long and 200 kilometers wide (4,200 by 120 miles).

“These Landsat swaths provide stunning views of transitions across the most remote and infrequently visited areas of our planet,” said Jim Irons, NASA’s project scientist for Landsat 8.


See more (including map of flight path, individual images, and a very cool way too look at the images using GigaPan)
Quoting 851. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

10 days I had enough its time for winter too move on
So the warm up will happen in 10 days?
Quoting 853. Climate175:

So the warm up will happen in 10 days?



What warm-up?

Quoting 853. Climate175:

So the warm up will happen in 10 days?



However, it is kind of an improvement from now.
Quoting 855. GTstormChaserCaleb:






A blank comment? You must have been left speechless.
Strange I plused this blog in Toronto at about - 20C.
It was the coldest day for that day. IE 25th of Feb ever recorded for the zone. ( KOTG,) will know for sure.
So cold it hurt my checks to try and breath in the wind which made it feel like - 30/C or worse, my eyes stated to feel like they were full of sand and my ears lost their feeling.
Then I got on the plane to Paris!
There the weather was virtually zero visibility and raining with a comfortable +6/C which was to say the least almost tropical after 9 days of around minus 15/C or worse.
I went to sleep in Paris airport on the plane and woke up in Malaga airport on the pane. +21/C at the Malaga airport and clear blue skies.

So the blog is about global warming, well that's one day of transportation warming from the great lakes at about:-
43.7000° N, 79.4000° W.
To Malaga Spain:-
36.7194° N, 4.4200° W.

+7 degrees in Latitude and +41/C in temperature.
Sort of makes you think a bit if you have time too like I do!

I know we will have the goon show on with the twits on about "gulf streams and jet streams"( not to mention, IQ streams!) but as I said before, It sort of makes you think a bit about how diverse this planet is!

Here's a photo I took last week on Wednesday. Standard tourist Niagara Falls shot:-


Here's Here, a couple of degrees north of Malaga about now!
Diverse planet?
Think about it.

Quoting 854. TimTheWxMan:




What warm-up?


The warm up Keep was talking about, the GFS was showing it, although it is 10 days away we shall see, Spring is still 23 days away no matter what and the temps are still going to rise as Spring progresses once it get's here. The CPC maps change many times as do the models, so it is a wait and see.
Quoting 820. georgevandenberghe:



Only for some of us. :-(

97F in Cuba, sheesh! I don't mind pleasant spring temps, but I would just assume the 85F + weather hold off for another month or two.
Quoting 846. sar2401:

At least it will help Mom overcome the disappointment from that terrible day when you told her you wanted to become a........sociologist!

Sorry, couldn't resist. :-)


No apology needed, that was funny. :) I will never forget when I told her I was presenting a paper on science denial and she asked me if climate change was "really real"...on that note, Christmas dinner discussions are a blast at her place.
Quoting 850. Climate175:

23 more days until Spring.


Somewhere else, some other time :-(

Had a half cord of firewood delivered 2/17. Went through half of it in a week!

Quoting 858. PlazaRed:
Strange I plused this blog in Toronto at about - 20C.
.... (snip] I went to sleep in Paris airport on the plane and woke up in Malaga airport on the pane. 21/C at the Malaga airport and clear blue skies. ...

Plaza, our man "Who Came In from the Cold", lol. Welcome back in good old well tempered Europe! Hope your job abroad went smoothly.


Weather forecast for Jerez/southern Spain (Celsius). Already summerlike! I'm envious as models predict some days of "March winter" for Germany next week :-(
Alhaurin De La Torre, Malaga (PWS)
Updated: 7:03 PM CET on February 26, 2015
Partly Cloudy
65.8 °F
Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 34%
Dew Point: 36 °F
Wind: 4.0 mph from the WNW
Wind Gust: 7.6 mph
Pressure: 30.18 in (Steady)
Visibility: 6.2 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Few 5000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 360 ft

Good to see you made it back in one piece and have defrosted fully......
Quoting 862. Naga5000:



No apology needed, that was funny. :) I will never forget when I told her I was presenting a paper on science denial and she asked me if climate change was "really real"...on that note, Christmas dinner discussions are a blast at her place.


Which is why I either crack jokes, make commentary on family habits, otherwise shut my yap when I'm at the table on holidays.
2" of powder in DC today. All done and I've told the kids to shovel the walk. After a highly anomalous day of full duration school yesterday, the pattern reverted to the more typical one for this season and schools were closed today.
Quoting 866. win1gamegiantsplease:



Which is why I either crack jokes, make commentary on family habits, otherwise shut my yap when I'm at the table on holidays.


One teen is a tea partier, one teen is a socialist and the third is somewhere in the middle.

Quoting 823. jpsb:



Your argument, at least as I understand it, is that the only influence the Sun has on Earth's climate can be measured in watt per meter squared at the top on the atmosphere. I disagree, I think the interact between the Earth and the Sun is far more complex and that we have much more to learn. Dr Soon work on comic rays and cloud formation being one area of interest.


Dr. Soon's work was thoroughly discredited and debunked almost before the ink was even dry. In addition, his work is now in disgrace in light of unethical practices that have recently been discovered.

Skeptical Science has a good summary including a dozen or so papers that give the whole GCR hypothesis a thorough academic spanking.

Unless you have some publishable revolutionary new science/evidence that can revitalize the GCR argument, it's a dead issue.

At this point there is no evidence that suggests that there is another significant and as yet unknown extra-terrestrial factor affecting the Earth's climate. If you have some, by all means publish it and get it reviewed.

Re putting words into your mouth. You described as "pseudo scientific garbage" NativeSun's conjecture that the Sun effects Earth climate. I am merely offering my support to his conjecture which I do not think is "pseudo scientific garbage ".


Unless you have a credible source, then it is garbage. Discredited and disgraced science do not make for good supporting evidence.

To be clear, people like myself, Naga, Neo etc. don't WANT climate change to be real. Nor do the scientists. In fact, we'd all be quite happy if someone would come forth with some mind blowing science that showed without doubt that global warming/climate change isn't happening. We're screwed up enough as it is as a race. Why the hell would we want to also add the portent of global climate induced disasters on top of that?

The problem is no has come even close to producing such mind blowing science (even if there was some it would be difficult to find considering the endless waterfall of idiotic garbage that comes from science deniers and FUD machines). However, every contrarian piece I've ever read (and I do read them even if they're links to Anthony TWatts) basically falls flat on it's face in the opening paragraphs, usually by violating some basic and/or fundamental physical principle such as the thermodynamics and/or conservation of energy. No point in reading on after that, and also why any papers that contain such glaring errors wind up straight in the circular filing cabinet.
Quoting 858. PlazaRed:

Strange I plused this blog in Toronto at about - 20C.
It was the coldest day for that day. IE 25th of Feb ever recorded for the zone. ( KOTG,) will know for sure.
So cold it hurt my checks to try and breath in the wind which made it feel like - 30/C or worse, my eyes stated to feel like they were full of sand and my ears lost their feeling.
Then I got on the plane to Paris!
There the weather was virtually zero visibility and raining with a comfortable +6/C which was to say the least almost tropical after 9 days of around minus 15/C or worse.
I went to sleep in Paris airport on the plane and woke up in Malaga airport on the pane. +21/C at the Malaga airport and clear blue skies.

So the blog is about global warming, well that's one day of transportation warming from the great lakes at about:-
43.7000° N, 79.4000° W.
To Malaga Spain:-
36.7194° N, 4.4200° W.

+7 degrees in Latitude and +41/C in temperature.
Sort of makes you think a bit if you have time too like I do!

I know we will have the goon show on with the twits on about "gulf streams and jet streams"( not to mention, IQ streams!) but as I said before, It sort of makes you think a bit about how diverse this planet is!

Here's a photo I took last week on Wednesday. Standard tourist Niagara Falls shot:-


Here's Here, a couple of degrees north of Malaga about now!
Diverse planet?
Think about it.





December 18, 1983. Left MSP -23F. Landed at FMY +83F and humid.

871. vis0

Quoting 835. weathermanwannabe:

Anyone have any thoughts on how the Spring tornado season will pan out over the next few months? We know that the biggest "boom" for the Mid-West comes with strong warm Gulf flow colliding with the cooler air from late-Winter fronts entering the Plains from the Rockies. Given the current storm trajectories, and current jet pattern, I am thinking that we might have a strong tornado season this year and that if the atmosphere is responding to a potential El Nino pattern, that we might get a few "low rider" fronts that will cause some boom for parts of the Gulf Coast as well. Too early to know what the transition pattern will fall into from Spring to Summer (it could change from the current one) but I remember our Blogger "Levi" making some good correlations (which I believe he presented to SPC a few years ago) on one of the Pacific indicators with some correlations to tornado season.

Would love to hear from Levi on his thoughts on this issue for the coming few months.
My worry comes from the crazy science i type of, w/o getting into that portion, if the southern Jet(s) do as they are doing presently (saw jet streaks in Sat loops also was posted by a WxU member) as to inject into the northern jet bringing a stream of cooler air from the North, my worry is more the the entire eastern half to third of the UsofA for the next 50-54 days as "something" (that's right SAR2401) continues to attract the northern Jet towards the mason dixen line but nature wants to inject some southern JET towards the same area which equal lots of energy for LOWs/Fronts to tap from.
This storm (Feb 25th-26th 2015 in SE of USofA) that some call a "bust" really wasn't AS TO THE STORM (prediction where off yesterday as to rain amount & today (last nite) as to precipitation  type,  AS TO THE STORM it "wound up" with lots of energy coming down as it went off shore. 
Imagine if these LOWs wind up while over the SE heading N/NE/ENE.
Lets observe what nature serves...
Quoting 804. DCSwithunderscores:



Yes, clearly it has been trending downward. Notice how often the red curve is below the black line after say 2000 compared to before 2000, especially compared to near the beginning of the period shown.

You could probably find a graph that shows it better, in which that red curve is expanded vertically, and in which a trend line is shown.

The decline in arctic sea ice volume is even more dramatic than the decline in arctic sea ice area.

Of course there's also the fact that volume means way more than area. But if we want to talk area...


~1980-2012

Missing two years but the trends are similar.
Quoting 830. Naga5000:



I choose Thor, he promised to rid the world of Ice Giants...I don't see any Ice Giants around. Checkmate.


Thor's a good choice. You know where you stand with Thor. But, I wouldn't trust God, not after all the crap he's pulled. Better than Zeus though, at least around women. God only got one young girl pregnant. Zeus basically could repopulate a small nation with all his philandering. :D
Quoting 839. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Watch us get a La Ni%uFFFDa . :P


Yeah good luck with that. Wont see that happen with the PDO hitting monthly records recently also combine that with this growing warm pool which has already brought anomalies to 1.3C across Nino 4 and .8C across Nino 3.4. I think some are holding onto straws as they know things don't look good at all for a active hurricane season I suspect numbers in the 8 to 9 range.

Quoting 829. Naga5000:



Dr. Soon's work was garbage to begin with, before he published unethically, and my statement about pseudo scientific garbage was regarding the sun as being the main driver of climate, which it clearly isn't. Cosmic rays and clouds don't fit

"Benestad (2013) compared cosmic ray flux to global surface temperature changes and found "there is little empirical evidence that links GCR to the recent global warming." In fact, since 1990, galactic cosmic ray flux on Earth has increased - "the opposite direction to that required to explain the observed rise in global mean temperatures" (Lockwood 2007). In fact, cosmic ray on flux recently reached record levels. According to Richard Mewaldt of Caltech, "In 2009, cosmic ray intensities have increased 19% beyond anything we've seen in the past 50 years." Erlykin et al. (2013)"

and

"Numerous studies have also investigated the effectiveness of GCRs in cloud formation (the third step). Kazil et al. (2006) found:

"the variation of ionization by galactic cosmic rays over the decadal solar cycle does not entail a response...that would explain observed variations in global cloud cover."

Sloan and Wolfendale (2008) found:

"we estimate that less than 23%, at the 95% confidence level, of the 11-year cycle changes in the globally averaged cloud cover observed in solar cycle 22 is due to the change in the rate of ionization from the solar modulation of cosmic rays."

Kristjansson et al. (2008) found:

"no statistically significant correlations were found between any of the four cloud parameters and GCR"

Calogovic et al. (2010) found:

"no response of global cloud cover to Forbush decreases at any altitude and latitude."

Kulmala et al. (2010) found

"galactic cosmic rays appear to play a minor role for atmospheric aerosol formation events, and so for the connected aerosol-climate effects as well."

Laken et al. (2013) found

"there is no robust evidence of a widespread link between the cosmic ray flux and clouds."

Krissansen-Totton & Davies (2013) found

"no statistically significant correlations between cosmic rays and global albedo or globally averaged cloud height, and no evidence for any regional or lagged correlations"

In the CERN CLOUD experiments, Almeida et al. (2013) found

"ionising radiation such as the cosmic radiation that bombards the atmosphere from space has negligible influence on the formation rates of these particular aerosols [that form clouds]"
"

So, yeah, pseudo science garbage. I stand by my words.

So much time and money wasted to respond/rebut to these cosmic rays hypotheses. It's disgraceful.
The point below as to below-average numbers for February tornadoes so far is a valid one; the deep arctic air drops into the South and Mid-West this year has keep the air in the plains colder and a bit more stable and the Gulf flow has not yet been able to make a dent in the Winter there (not even close yet). Can't trust the long-term models to nail down the timing but Spring will come, eventually, to the Plains and the warmer Gulf flow will be able work it's way up.

No idea what the tornado outlook will be down the road; just noting that a quiet February could give way to a really active April and May but I am not sure what March will bring on this front.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 876. weathermanwannabe:

The point below as to below-average numbers for February tornadoes so far is a valid one; the deep arctic air drops into the South and Mid-West this year has keep the air in the plains colder and a bit more stable and the Gulf flow has not yet been able to make a dent in the Winter there (not even close yet). Can't trust the long-term models to nail down the timing but Spring will come, eventually, to the Plains and the warmer Gulf flow will be able work it's way up.

No idea what the tornado outlook will be down the road; just noting that a quiet February could give way to a really active April and May but I am not sure what March will bring on this front.


How about March as it looks very dangerous next week across the Mid South. Looking at some of these models and the moisture in flow from the Gulf of 1.5 to 1.8" along with a strong jet aloft could give way to our first real severe weather outbreak of 2015.
Given the current storm trajectories, and current jet pattern, I am thinking that we might have a strong tornado season this year and that if the atmosphere is responding to a potential El Nino pattern, that we might get a few "low rider" fronts that will cause some boom for parts of the Gulf Coast as well.

aside from the blog experts" most mets are expressing the idea that enso conditions ares going to quickly tank the next 60 days
Quoting 850. Climate175:

23 more days until Spring.


And 365 more days of insults.
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF AN...CENTRAL
MARYLAND...NORTHERN MARYLAND...SOUTHERN MARYLAND...THE DISTRICT
OF COLUMBIA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SNOW SHOWERS MAY COAT THE GROUND LATE TONIGHT...CAUSING SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A WINTER MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

$$
Quoting 832. CuriousAboutClimate:



Occam's razor, jpsb. Why suggest additional, as-yet-unidentified factors to try to explain something that is already explained perfectly well by the current observational data? Plurality should not be posited without necessity. By the way, the cosmic ray hypothesis is essentially dead

"A set of Monte Carlo simulations nevertheless indicated that the weak amplitude of the global mean temperature response associated with GCR could easily be due to chance (p-value = 0.6), and there has been no trend in the GCR. Hence, there is little empirical evidence that links GCR to the recent global warming."
Link

"Evidence is presented from which the contributions of either cosmic rays or solar activity to this warming is deduced. The contribution is shown to be less than 10% of the warming seen in the twentieth century."
Link

"Our analysis shows that, although important in cloud physics the results do not lead to the conclusion that cosmic rays affect atmospheric clouds significantly, at least if H2SO4 is the dominant source of aerosols in the atmosphere. An analysis of the very recent studies of stratospheric aerosol changes following a giant solar energetic particles event shows a similar negligible effect. Recent measurements of the cosmic ray intensity show that a former decrease with time has been reversed. Thus, even if cosmic rays enhanced cloud production, there would be a small global cooling, not warming."
Link
Hi, do you really think the sun has less influence on our climate than a minor trace gas?
Quoting 851. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

10 days I had enough its time for winter too move on
Quoting 882. NativeSun:

Hi, do you really think the sun has less influence on our climate than a minor trace gas?


Those trace gases have exerted a radiative forcing on our climate that is 10x the change in radiative forcing from the sun. That trace gas sustains the terrestrial greenhouse effect.

Quoting 882. NativeSun:

Hi, do you really think the sun has less influence on our climate than a minor trace gas?



Without that "minor" trace gas the global temperature would be about 255 Kelvin or about -18 C.
886. vis0

Quoting 847. sar2401:

Your caps lock key is stuck.

There's also the outside chance we could get that clouds and trumpets thing on June 1 also. That would really disrupt hurricane season.
Sorry SAR2401 "Trumpet thing" happened ~1989ish is one searchs when 2 astronomers in San Fransisco found the first Earth like planets where did they find them? between an array of stars that SYMBOLICALLY (a parable where such is concerned) look like trumpets and a reign of specifically angled**  light.

**(angels i state are a form of angled boson light with knowledge embedded within which can or cannot be from past beings "soul-spirit" energies that can be be picked apart via deep meditation.  Remember here on WxU and youtube ~2010/11 (on About.com/sci as "espyther in the late 1990s) i posted as to boson light BEFORE the "god particle" and i state it is not the "god particle" but a very important temporary bridge to Galacsics,
Deep stuff hey?!, and i'm a housekeeper & have a degree in being a nut ...BSBS?)
WEATHER::
Today's weather will happen tomorrow while tomorrow's happened yesterday.
887. vis0

Quoting 724. sar2401:

LOL. How appropriate. Mine was "Let It Snow! Let It Snow! Let It Snow!" by Vaughn Monroe and his Orchestra. Sure worked for today for north Alabama. So, Vis, what did the ml-d have to do with today's weather? Pretty wild stuff, and most of it wasn't on the radar, so to speak.
very late reply, just noticed my first question eva (ever) in the 10/18yrs i've been posting on wxu either on  the ml-d or what could happen if one could influence weather from the NE. i've ended my Galacsic Teachings and slowly cutting down my blogging activities (outside USofA just 'bout ended those blogs, WxU is very hard to quit once you start blogging not 'cause of the blog but its top quality members). In respect to SAR2401 a reply::
http://youtu.be/shV-buby5LI



As to ml-d as you know (: - P) SAR2401 we just went through a period of  about 14 days  i call "2WkAnom" ijn which anything that uses/taps into the "area" of space that is grounded in Galacsucs becomes "powered down" to only 33% of its MAX. Therefore the ml-d was powered down NATURALLY. From the ~21st of February for a 3 day period the planet went through an assimilation period  for the physical dimension to assimilate the next (new) Galacsics influence. YET natural influences of Galacsics DO NOT GO ABOVE 33% within the physical dimension, therefore its not detectable via simple physics (sprites are one example, not the soda Patrap someone get him a fresca) BUT the ml-d raises that Galacsics influence to 99% and reintroduces the "energy" at desired settings, which since 2009/10 is set to add 2 times the precipitation, H. winds & v. winds via the ml-d influence X each individual ml-d Area Of Influence percentage.  Since we just started to have the ml-d powered back up NATURALLY and the assimilation period ended ~24th you saw the ml-d begin to reintroduce its push-pull influence on attracting the stronger Jet towards it and since both the northern jets & southern Jets are strong (as we enter spring) they came together over ~Fl. to Ga. hence those surprise Jet streaks that came from Mexico/Tex/GoMx over Florida. AGAIN the ml-d does not create nor bring all weather to NYC it push-pull via nature more precip & the 2 main types of winds from above/below & from across and the more potential energy the more they are attracted towards  (NOT bring to) the ml-d and you saw how those influences kept regenerating almost 2 times faster than expected to create more rain, move it further northward & more winds, Hope SAR24012 read the how to add more light without raising your electric bill idea & adding more  water to your plants without raising your water bill ideas one on this page the light idea on a previous blogbyte of Dr. Masters. i recommend one Take 2 aspirins & see the physiologist, INjoy
One crucial point is that global warming didn’t “stop” during the hiatus

No, it didn't, which makes me wonder why people continue to use the word "hiatus":

hiatus (n.): a period of time when something ... is stopped

Why not just call it a slowdown, or a slowdown in atmospheric warming? "Hiatus" gives entirely the wrong impression.
Crock of bull!
Well its snowing balls of Modified snow again, dont eat the white snow either lol, Teslas theorys at work again , ahh I mean nexrads theorys ... keep an eye out for the circles in the radar when there is no blue and there should be its because of induced Hz into the strato and ionoshere and it does change the weather pattern for that area within the circumference of there new nexrad stations. Same reason the airforce/navy has built over 40 floating platforms for control in other areas of the world. Haarp And Daarpa. Are no longer the new norm its now utilized differently !!
Too many misconceptions to deal with at once, but the current pattern is totally the female baby with the aberrant accumulation of warm water off western North America probably due to the lack of upwelling resulting from an eastward displacement of "the wave". Normally this is called the "Hawaiian High" because it occupies the center of the Pacific on average. If you believe human Carbon dioxide is causing this, please show your work.
BTW, if you ever get over the papal only thing, I will be very happy to rejoin.
Quoting 885. JohnLonergan:





Without that "minor" trace gas the global temperature would be about 255 Kelvin or about -18 C.