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Are tornadoes getting stronger and more frequent?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:24 PM GMT on February 26, 2008

Are tornadoes and severe thunderstorms getting more numerous and more extreme due to climate change? To help answer this question, let's restrict our attention to the U.S., which has the highest incidence of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms of any place in the world. At a first glance, it appears that tornado frequency has increased in recent decades (Figure 1).


Figure 1. The number of EF-0 (blue line) and EF-1 and stronger tornadoes (maroon diamonds) reported in the U.S. since 1950. There is not a decades-long increasing trend in the numbers of tornadoes stronger than EF-0, implying that climate change, as yet, is not having a noticeable impact on U.S. tornadoes. However, statistics of tornado frequency and intensity are highly uncertain. Major changes in the rating process occurred in the mid-1970s (when all tornadoes occurring prior to about 1975 were retrospectively rated), and again in 2001, when scientists began rating tornadoes lower because of engineering concerns and unintended consequences of National Weather Service policy changes. According to Brooks (2013), "Tornadoes in the early part of the official National Weather Service record (1950-approximately 1975) are rated with higher ratings than the 1975 - 2000 period, which, in turn, had higher ratings than 2001 - 2007." Also, beginning in 2007, NOAA switched from the F-scale to the EF-scale for rating tornado damage, causing additional problems with attempting to assess if tornadoes are changing over time. Image credit: Kunkel, Kenneth E., et al., 2013, "Monitoring and Understanding Trends in Extreme Storms: State of Knowledge," Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94, 499–514, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00262.1

However, this increase may be entirely caused by factors unrelated to climate change:

1) Population growth has resulted in more tornadoes being reported.

2) Advances in weather radar, particularly the deployment of about 100 Doppler radars across the U.S. in the mid-1990s, has resulted in a much higher tornado detection rate.

3) Tornado damage surveys have grown more sophisticated over the years. For example, we now commonly classify multiple tornadoes along a damage path that might have been attributed to just one twister in the past.

Given these uncertainties in the tornado data base, it is unknown how the frequency of tornadoes might be changing over time. The "official word" on climate science, the 2007 United Nations IPCC report, stated it thusly: "There is insufficient evidence to determine whether trends exist in small scale phenomena such as tornadoes, hail, lighting, and dust storms." Furthermore, we're not likely to be able to develop methods to improve the situation in the near future.The current Doppler radar system can only detect the presence of a parent rotating thunderstorm that often, but not always, produces a tornado. Until a technology is developed that can reliably detect all tornadoes, there is no hope of determining how tornadoes might be changing in response to a changing climate. According to Doswell (2007): I see no near-term solution to the problem of detecting detailed spatial and temporal trends in the occurrence of tornadoes by using the observed data in its current form or in any form likely to evolve in the near future.

Are strong tornadoes increasing?
Stronger tornadoes (greater than EF-0 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale, or F0 on the pre-2007 Fujita Scale) are more likely to get counted, since they tend to cause significant damage along a long track. Thus, the climatology of these tornadoes may offer a clue as to how climate change may be affecting severe weather. Unfortunately, we cannot measure the wind speeds of a tornado directly, except in very rare cases when researchers happen to be present with sophisticated research equipment. Tornadoes are categorized using the Enhanced Fujita (EF) scale, which is based on damage (note that the EF scale to rate tornadoes was adopted in 2007, but the transition to this new scale still allows valid comparisons of tornadoes rated, for example, EF-5 on the new scale and F-5 on the old scale.) So, if a strong tornado happens to sweep through empty fields and never destroy any structures, it will never be rated as a strong tornado. Thus, if the number of strong tornadoes has actually remained constant over the years, we should expect to see some increase in these twisters over the decades, since more buildings have been erected in the paths of tornadoes. However, if we look at the statistics of U.S. tornadoes stronger than EF-0 or F-0 since 1950, there does not appear to be any increase in their number. Not surprisingly, a study accepted for publication in Environmental Hazards (Simmons et al., 2012) found no increase in tornado damages from 1950 - 2011, after normalizing the data for increases in wealth and property (note, though, that I am suspicious of studies that normalize disaster data, since they are prone to error, as revealed by a 2012 study looking at storm surge heights and damages.)

The future of tornadoes
An alternate technique to study how climate change may be affecting tornadoes is look at how the large-scale environmental conditions favorable for tornado formation have changed through time. Moisture, instability, lift, and wind shear are needed for tornadic thunderstorms to form. The exact mix required varies considerably depending upon the situation, and is not well understood. However, Brooks (2003) attempted to develop a climatology of weather conditions conducive for tornado formation by looking at atmospheric instability (as measured by the Convective Available Potential Energy, or CAPE), and the amount of wind shear between the surface and 6 km altitude. High values of CAPE and surface to 6 km wind shear are conducive to formation of tornadic thunderstorms. The regions they analyzed with high CAPE and high shear for the period 1997-1999 did correspond pretty well with regions where significant (F2 and stronger) tornadoes occurred. The authors plan to extend the climatology back in time to see how climate change may have changed the large-scale conditions conducive for tornado formation. Riemann-Campe et al. (2009) found that globally, CAPE increased significantly between 1958 - 2001. However, little change in CAPE was found over the Central and Eastern U.S. during spring and summer during the most recent period they studied, 1979 - 2001. A preliminary report issued by NOAA’s Climate Attribution Rapid Response Team in July 2011 found no trends in CAPE or wind shear over the lower Mississippi Valley over the past 30 years. However, preliminary work by J. Sander of Munich Re insurance company, presented at the December 2011 American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco, found that the number of days with very high CAPE values over the eastern two-thirds of the United States between 1970 and 2009 did increase significantly.

Del Genio et al.(2007) used a climate model with doubled CO2 to show that a warming climate would make the atmosphere more unstable (higher CAPE) and thus prone to more severe weather. However, decreases in wind shear offset this effect, resulting in little change in the amount of severe weather in the Central and Eastern U.S. late this century. The speed of updrafts in thunderstorms over land increased by about 1 m/s in their simulation, though, since upward moving air needed to travel 50-70 mb higher to reach the freezing level. As a result, the most severe thunderstorms got stronger. In the Western U.S., the simulation showed that drying led lead to fewer thunderstorms, but the strongest thunderstorms increased in number by 26%, leading to a 6% increase in the total amount of lighting hitting the ground each year. If these results are correct, we might expect more lightning-caused fires in the Western U.S. late this century, due to enhanced drying and more lightning.

Using a high-resolution regional climate model (25 km grid size) zoomed in on the U.S., Trapp et al. (2007) and Trapp et al. (2009) found that the decrease in 0-6 km wind shear in the late 21st century would more than be made up for by an increase in instability (CAPE). Their model predicted an increase in the number of days with high severe storm potential for almost the entire U.S., by the end of the 21st century. These increases were particularly high for many locations in the Eastern and Southern U.S., including Atlanta, New York City, and Dallas (Figure 3). Cities further north and west such as Chicago saw a smaller increase in the number of severe weather days.


Figure 3. Number of days per year with high severe storm potential historically (blue bars) and as predicted by the climate model (A2 scenario) of Trapp et al. 2007 (red bars).

Summary
We currently do not know how tornadoes and severe thunderstorms may be changing due to changes in the climate, nor is there hope that we will be able to do so in the foreseeable future. At this time, it does not appear that there has been an increase in U.S. tornadoes stronger than EF-0 in recent decades. Preliminary research using climate models suggests that we may see an increase in the number of severe storms capable of producing tornadoes over the U.S. late this century. However, this research is just beginning, and much more study is needed to confirm these findings.

References
Brooks, H.E., 2013, "Severe thunderstorms and climate change," Atmospheric Research, Volume 123, 1 April 2013, Pages 129–138, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2012.04.002.

Brooks, H.E., J.W. Lee, and J.P. Craven, 2003, "The spatial distribution of severe thunderstorm and tornado environments from global reanalysis data", Atmospheric Research Volumes 67-68, July-September 2003, Pages 73-94.

Doswell, C.A., 2007, "Small Sample Size and Data Quality Issues Illustrated Using Tornado Occurrence Data", E-Journal of Severe Storms Meteorology Vol 2, No. 5 (2007).

Del Genio, A.D., M-S Yao, and J. Jonas, 2007,
Will moist convection be stronger in a warmer climate?, Geophysical Research Letters, 34, L16703, doi: 10.1029/2007GL030525.

Kunkel, Kenneth E., et al., 2013, "Monitoring and Understanding Trends in Extreme Storms: State of Knowledge," Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94, 499–514, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00262.1

Marsh, P.T., H.E. Brooks, and D.J. Karoly, 2007, Assessment of the severe weather environment in North America simulated by a global climate model, Atmospheric Science Letters, 8, 100-106, doi: 10.1002/asl.159.

Riemann-Campe, K., Fraedrich, K., and F. Lunkeit, 2009, Global climatology of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and Convective Inhibition (CIN) in ERA-40 reanalysis, Atmospheric Research Volume 93, Issues 1-3, July 2009, Pages 534-545, 4th European Conference on Severe Storms.

Simmons, K.M., Dutter, D., and Pielke, R., 2012, "Normalized Tornado Damage in the United States: 1950-2011," DOI: 10.1080/17477891.2012.738642

Trapp, R.J., N.S. Diffenbaugh, H.E. Brooks, M.E. Baldwin, E.D. Robinson, and J.S. Pal, 2007, Severe thunderstorm environment frequency during the 21st century caused by anthropogenically enhanced global radiative forcing, PNAS 104 no. 50, 19719-19723, Dec. 11, 2007.

Trapp, R. J., Diffenbaugh, N. S., & Gluhovsky, A., 2009, "Transient response of severe thunderstorm forcing to elevated greenhouse gas concentrations," Geophysical Research Letters, 36(1).

Jeff Masters

Climate Change Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Just like with anything else climate related now a days, it needs more research. =o)
Are tornadoes getting stronger and more frequent?

No. Its purely random.
Increasing population and more advanced radars probably account for all the increase in tornadoes counted. Temperatures going up a degree or two might make tornadoes a little more likely at the beginning and end of the season, and more to the north, like the wisconsin tornadoes last month. But an increase of hundreds of tornadoes each year? I don't think so.
Auntie Em..says, Hmmmmm, "Could be".

Always seek shelter during a Warning though.
Good Kansas Advice considering the threat today in the Southeast.

Hey all! Just quickly dropping by. Pretty busy today. Looks like W. Central FL will be in for some pretty rough weather later today and into tonight. Add the heating of the day into this and there is a good chance for significant severe wx.
Interesting that the study included the southwest (increased severity of the monsoon, apparently) and even Los Angeles. In Southern California we don't often get severe storms but it does happen. Apparently the risk would be much greater for severe weather in the second half of the rainy season here.
OK.....can someone help me out......

we throw out the first graph shown due to better observations and more frequent observations

the second graph shows a decrease in "violent" tornadoes the past three decades (2000's would extrapolate out to +/- 48) even though we know we've been getting warmer than the previous decades

and the third graph shows that because of climate change we'll have more potential days for the chance of more and possible more violent tornadoes

why do graphs 2 and 3 not correlate better?
there was only one tornado of EF5 intensity reported during the eight year period 2000-2007 ... The previous eight year period of 1992-1999 had six F5 tornadoes

The real question here lies in these tornadoes' motives: were they trying to frighten Democrats, or do they dislike Republicans? In an election year this information is vital!

Seriously though, a very interesting post. The increased CAPE and the fewer-but-stronger western storms scenarios seem to pass the "makes sense" test. It will be exciting to see what comes of additional research.

Gotta run.. only have a few decades to figure out how to build a basement in this Dallas clay!
I wouldn't be surprised if the figures for the 2000's are very different once this year is over (possibly the next few years, if La Nina lasts that long). Come to think of it, is it just a coincidence that La Ninas have become less frequent at the same time violent tornadoes also became less frequent (until the past year - 2008 already has had more violent tornadoes than 2005 and 2006 combined)? If this is the case (there have been numerous recent studies linking La Nina to stronger, longer tracked tornadoes and bigger outbreaks; the one early this month had the most violent tornadoes in a single outbreak in 23 years), then there may be more in the future if the PDO shifts (La Ninas would become more common).
The following sounds like it is talking about last year - but it is actually from 1999 (the record snow part could also apply to this winter, and changing May to February would make it sound like it is talking about this year):

La Nina Probably Contributed to Huge Tornadoes

Cooler than normal ocean temperatures in the mid-Pacific, called La Nina, have caused many bizarre weather effects in North America, including record snow and monster tornadoes.

Start Date: 5/10/99

A rash of killer tornadoes that swept through the midwest United States in early May -- including at least one giant F-5, the most powerful category, packing winds approaching 300 miles per hour -- were driven in part by La Nina, scientists say. The cold-water condition in the mid-Pacific ocean, also credited with dropping a record 91 feet of snow on mountains in Washington state this winter, can be expected to produce more devastating tornadoes in the coming months. Already the number recorded this season is running ahead of normal expectations.
"The signal is there," said Steve Byrd, science officer for the National Weather Service in Omaha, Neb. "The incidence of tornadoes on the central Plains is slightly higher during La Nina."



Here is another:

The results indicate that El Nino events reduce tornadic activity in the southern plain states, while El Viejo events increase tornadic activity in the Ohio River Valley and Deep South. Results further show that El Nino inhibits the chances of multiple tornado outbreaks, while La Nina facilitates large tornadic outbreaks and produces more devastating tornadoes.

There has been one previous study investigating ENSO impacts on tornadoes. An unpublished manuscript by Knowles and Pielke (1993) observed that tornadoes during ENSO cold phase (La Nina) are stronger and remain on the ground longer than their warm phase (El Nino) counterparts. They further showed that there is an increased chance of large tornado outbreaks (40 or more tornadoes associated with a single synoptic system) during ENSO cold phase.


News articles on the outbreak earlier this month also had lines like this (the ones that didn't say they were caused by global warming, that is; good to see that not all news media is on the hype machine...):

The tornadoes could be due to La Nina, a cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean that can cause changes in weather patterns around the world. Recent studies have found an increase in tornadoes in parts of the South during the winter when La Nina occurs.
TVS signature...Cell Z-1 !!!!

Link



NEXRAD Radar
Valdosta Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity 1.45 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMILink
I know one thing - if CAPE increases in the future, storms that are fueled by very high CAPE (like derechos) may become stronger and more frequent (the highest CAPE values occur during extreme heat waves; below is something from July 19, 2006; the MCC that they refer to moved south from Iowa and got even stronger as it moved into (apparantly) even more unstable air):

An extremely unstable and hot airmass was in place over Iowa during the day on the 19th. The weather situation was complicated with a warm front extending from northwest into central, into southeast Iowa during the mid afternoon. Earlier in the day, and MCS moved across north central into east central and southeast Iowa. This MCS laid down an outflow boundary that pushed southwest into the state, and eventually met up with the warm front. Along and southwest of the boundary, considerable dew point pooling took place. Afternoon temperatures reached the upper 90s to near 105 with dew points in the upper 70s to mid 80s. CAPE values soared to the 8000 to 10,000 J/kg range by early evening as the lifted index fell to the -10 to -15 C. range. A very strong cap was in place with 700 mb temperatures warming to between +14 and +17 C. The freezing level was unusually high, in the 16,500 to 17,000 foot range. Thunderstorms tried to develop by the early evening, but as additional warmer and drier air pushed into the area the dissipated. After sunset a cluster of thunderstorms developed over southern Minnesota and northern Iowa along the north edge of the cap as a cold front pushed into the state from the northwest. The shear environment was quite favorable with shear in the 55 to 70 kt range in the zero to 6 km layer. The storms eventually developed into an MCC and skirted the northern edge of IOWA, Central Iowa. They produced strong winds and some hail. The hail was limited by the very warm airmass with reports of hail in the penny to nickle size range. High winds caused damage to trees and power lines with wind speeds in the 60 to 70 MPH range with the stronger storms in the Winnebago, Worth, and Bremer County areas of north central and northeast Iowa.


Also, from last year I recall the SPC or NWS saying that the CAPE was around 7,000 on August 12 - both the highest that I have ever seen; I wonder how much higher it can possibly get.
I was told by NWS employees that graph like the one above(U.S. tornadoes) and hurricane frequency graphs tend to be inaccurate because as we go back in time, all tornadoes may not have been accounted for....especially hurricanes(as technological advances increase, so do the accuracy of catching a tornado/hurricane). I actually researched about the hurricane frequency aspect of it this past summer at the NWS.
Well, if that 3rd graph is true, I've picked a good topic to be a "fan" of.

I think STL is on to the cause of the drop of tornado activity this decade so far. We could see the USA catch up quickly this year.
I have a question here for those in the know as I don't have a clue on where to look this information up. I need to drive a vehicle west originating from northeastern Ohio. I can either drive due west or take a more southern route by heading to Kentucky first and then heading west. Of issue is the fact that this vehicle is not snow worthy. Also, while I do not have to pick it up immediately, I also do not want to leave it there for very long. So, I've been trying to find any place listing the average date of the last snowfall in Ohio as well as any somewhat reliable 30 day long range forecasts for Ohio and neighboring states. I know long range forecasts are anyone's guess, but I'm sure there's probably someone's forecast out there that members here would tend to bet on more than others. I'm hoping to be able to pick up the car some weekend in March or the first week of April. As airlines charge a bunch of money when buying a ticket last minute, I'm wanting to try and pick the likely best weekend so I can buy my ticket with a little lead time and get a much cheaper rate. I'd be flying into Ohio on a Friday and driving west on the weekend. Anyone have any educated guesses on which weekend in March or maybe even first week in April might be best?
Howdy, folks! Been awhile...interesting subject matter, Dr. M
I think STL is on to the cause of the drop of tornado activity this decade so far. We could see the USA catch up quickly this year.

It will be interesting to see what happens.

Also, here is a graph of the Nino 3.4 index since 1990 - notice how the first half of this decade was similar to the early 1990s; I am not exactly sure how the 90s looked as far as tornadoes go, but I know that 1998-1999 were very active:

CAPE in the Tampa area in the 2500-3000 J/kg range. If it holds, could get real nasty just after rush hour today.
Looks like our central to south Florida folks will be hit or miss for a while...the Turkey Point reactor went down a little while ago...
Good to see you Flood,it has been a long time
Yeah House... No watches yet, but given the building instability, daytime heating and the storms continuing to build out in the Gulf, a watch is imminent... At least a Severe Tunderstorm Watch anyways. Could possibly get a Tornado Watch.
Massive power outage in Florida
An isolated tornado or two is possible. As long as the dynamics don't go "poof", they'll probably issue a watch just to be on the safe side.
NEWx, it's good to be back...how have you been?
JFV, I have power because I'm in Colleyville Texas; I have a number of employees in south Florida currently that are wihtout power...as I stated above, I think the idea is that the Turkey Point plant went down and a number of substations went down in a trip event as they tried to reroute. Going to ba a long day in Florida, kids
Things across miami dade are getting back to normal.Extremely rare event indeed.
Sure North Florida is under a tornado watch, a Red Flag for Fire with a Fire Weather Warning and what do we get. A power outage from Miami rippleing all the way up here.
They are saying everything is fine. But we are on generators way up here.
hummmmm.
Does not include Southeast miami dade and broward counties.

Someone unplugged Florida...?

36. StormW 3:49 PM EST on February 26, 2008
Hi Adrian!

Hey SW whats up?

Man iam soooo tired of this cold then hot then cold weather here.Hopefully this is the last real cool down.Iam good with my mid 80's.Check your mail here at WU when you have a chance.
Whenever I feel that I have just about had enough of this thirdworld Island I live on, then I read the dread weather you guys have to put up with, I think " this is fine, man ". I think I'll stay put...........
Hi, all.

Great comments today on a very interesting topic. (Esp. MikeSTL)

Yep, Unplugged.
Thanks for the alert StormW.
The reactors did their job.
On the Florida Outage..a root cause. Link

"It does not appear to be weather related," he said.
Good afternoon, folks.

Howdy, Floodman.
Regarding the drop in EF4/EF5 tornadoes this decade, I wonder if something else could be afoot. Former NWS meteorologist Chuck Doswell mentions this:



Doswell:

"After some discussions, [...] the NWS created the so-called Quick Response Team (or QRT), a group of people designated as "experts" regarding damage assessments for the purpose of rating tornadoes, after the La Plata, MD tornado was originally rated an F5 tornado by the local NWS survey. Subsequent analysis suggested that this was an overrating of this tornado and the QRT was established to be called in to assist any local NWS survey team in case there was a suspicion that the tornado might be given an F4-F5 rating. [...]

"For reasons that leave me completely mystified, this has had the clearly unintended effect that the initial, local NWS survey team has consistently avoided giving an event even the chance of a tornado being given an F4 or F5 rating. I don't see any plausible reason why calling in the QRT members to assist in the evaluation of an important event should be avoided, but the result has been that no tornado has been rated an F5 since the 03 May 1999 tornado in the Oklahoma City metro area. [Dropsonde: This essay was written in May 2006.] Only a handful of tornadoes have been rated F4 in the past seven years! And the QRT consistently has not been consulted in numerous tornado outbreaks in this period. [...]

"Clarification: Just for the record, I'm not advocating that there's some sort of a conspiracy within the NWS or anywhere else to downgrade tornado ratings or avoid the use of the QRT. I generally have disdain for conspiracy theories - although conspiracies certainly do occur occasionally. If an NWS preliminary survey team makes a preliminary assessment of F3 or less, and there's any cause to question their call - as in the case where photos of homes swept off their foundations by the storm are available publicly - then it seems to me that they're doing themselves and the system a disservice by not calling in a QRT to confirm their findings."



Thoughts?
That was an amazing read Jeff. Thanks for sharing.

I am prepared for the severe weather in the midwest & great lakes this spring!
I just got hail! It was fun bc I was outside and it hurt. lol
So far this year tornado wise has been active. I cant wait to find out how active it is in early may (not).
Good afternoon,

Starting to get mammatus clouds overhead....strong storms already on shore approaching......getting nasty
thank god cold weather
Looking outside to my backyard, looks dark, very dark.
Great Blog. Is there an ACE for tornadoes? I didn't lose power today, but 2 schools nearby did.
50. CybrTeddy 4:58 PM EST on February 26, 2008 Hide this comment.
So far this year tornado wise has been active. I cant wait to find out how active it is in early may (not).


The last time we saw this much early activity was, unfortunately, 1999.

234 tornadoes in Jan. & Feb. 1999

There definitely is a correlation between early activity and a strong La Nina event. 1974, the year of the Super Outbreak, was also a La Nina year: Link. So yes, I'm afraid someone may be in for it this year. I hope I'm wrong.
It appears the Orlando metro area is really going to be rocked and some rotation is apparent at the higher levels. Those people should stay very alert.
The SE corner of Polk county Fl. has very strong rotation and possibilities of concern
346 WUUS52 KTBW 262230 SVRTBW FLC101-105-119-262300- /O.NEW.KTBW.SV.W.0015.080226T2230Z-080226T2300Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 530 PM EST TUE FEB 26 2008 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN POLK COUNTY IN FLORIDA. SOUTHEASTERN SUMTER COUNTY IN FLORIDA. NORTHEASTERN PASCO COUNTY IN FLORIDA. * UNTIL 600 PM EST * AT 530 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING 60 MPH WINDS...OVER NORTHEASTERN PASCO COUNTY...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... THE GREEN SWAMP BY 530 PM EST. A TORNADO WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. REMEMBER... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING. PLEASE REPORT TORNADOES OR FUNNEL CLOUDS...WINDS OF 58 MPH OR HIGHER...HAIL THE SIZE OF PENNIES OR LARGER...AND ANY WIND DAMAGE TO YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN BY CALLING 813-645-2323.
What a time for radar failure..you gotta be kidding....
The last time we saw this much early activity was, unfortunately, 1999.

Even compared to 1999, the activity so far this year is ridiculous (even when you consider that not all of these are confirmed, though in some cases the number of confirmed tornadoes for a month can be higher than the preliminary number, which is really just the number of reports):



I also noticed that while 2007 had less tornadoes overall than 2005 and 2006, it had more tornadoes during the spring (2005 was boosted a lot during the fall by tropical cyclone tornadoes); on the other hand, 2007 had more violent tornadoes than 2005 and 2006, this year has already had just as many (according to this); and of course it had what is probably the largest and strongest tornado in history (there was a 2.5 mile wide tornado before, but it was only an F4; the F5 tornado that hit Oklahoma City in 1999 was only a mile wide).
I see a possible vortex south of Daytona Beach
Another strong rotation is in NW corner of Hillsborough county in the Lutz area.
Michael, that graph is startling. 1000 words and all... wow.

I took a second look at my Tornado History Project link for 1999. There was one violent tornado in January-February. This year we've had five already, and we've obviously not had 5x as many tornadoes. This is disturbing.
and of course it had what is probably the largest and strongest tornado in history (there was a 2.5 mile wide tornado before, but it was only an F4; the F5 tornado that hit Oklahoma City in 1999 was only a mile wide)

Pardon my ignorance, but what tornado are you referring to when you say "largest and strongest in history"?
Weather changes on the way in N.C.

From thunderstorms this morning to heavy snow warnings and winterstorm warnings.

Western slopes of N.C.= 6-12inches(+3000f.t)
Mountains 3000f.t to around 2100f.t. 2-4inches
Foothills 1500f.t to 2000f.t. 1inch possibal.Below 1500, wind snow.
Piedmont. Slight chance of a flurrie.


Also, the mountains will get gust over 55mph with all that snow.
Pardon my ignorance, but what tornado are you referring to when you say "largest and strongest in history"?

I was referring to the Greensburg tornado, which was 1.7 miles wide (I don't think there ever was an F5 tornado that big before; of course, when I say "largest and strongest" I mean both).
70. MichaelSTL 6:44 PM EST on February 26, 2008
Pardon my ignorance, but what tornado are you referring to when you say "largest and strongest in history"?

I was referring to the Greensburg tornado, which was 1.7 miles wide (I don't think there ever was an F5 tornado that big before; of course, when I say "largest and strongest" I mean both).


Sounds like a hurricane on land that size.......wow
What's the website to report severe weather? I think I see a hook right over Coconut Creek, FL.
911 locally will patch thru to the Local NWS
Never mind.
Thanks anyways though.
70. MichaelSTL 6:44 PM EST on February 26, 2008
I was referring to the Greensburg tornado, which was 1.7 miles wide (I don't think there ever was an F5 tornado that big before; of course, when I say "largest and strongest" I mean both).


Ah, I gotcha. I thought of the Tri-State Tornado, and looked it up, but it seems that it was "only" a mile wide as well.

I wonder just how intense the Mulhall tornado of 1999 truly was. It was rated F4, but chaser Roger Edwards thought it might have been more violent than the Moore tornado. A shame we'll never know for sure. They need to do more quantitative measurements of tornadoes.
Yes, http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
For a comparison, the eye of Wilma was only 2 miles wide at peak intensity (although the wind fieled was much larger with hurricane force winds 15 miles out). On the other hand, there was a tornado that was biggesr than Wilma's eye, although the article notes that the largest measured tornado was about a mile wide - of course, that is always a big problem with tornadoes as probably only a handful have been actually measured in any way besides damage, and even then, like in the 1999 Oklahoma City tornado, the 300 mph winds were not measured at the surface (by mobile Doppler radar); it was rated as an F5 based on damage. I also remember that many people said that the Greensburg tornado had one of the most impressive radar signatures they ever saw (on "regular" radar, which can't measure tornado winds accurately, I think it still had like 200+ kts though; that could just be due to its size and intensity as larger and/or stronger tornadoes show up better).
Through history, urbanization has increased, especially with new technology. So there are many areas around the U.S.(such as the Midwest regions in tornado alley) where there is sparse populations of people. One would think that everything from tornadoes/hurricanes have generally increased through time because they want to speculate "GW" did it. But as more observations set up, we can account for more tornadoes, and thus an "appearance" that tornado frequency is increasing. The thing is, we dont know how "complete" such historic documented cases are....

This is ESPECIALLY true of hurricane frequency. Before satellites, we had to rely on ship reports/landfalling storms and thus there could be a large number of hurricanes unaccounted for....This is why we just dont know whether hurricanes through long term, have been increasing/decreasing in general in any specific pattern.
Ok, I'm going to post this a second time. I know I'm not a regular poster and new or non-regulars tend to be ignored here if they only seem to be an "average joe", but I really don't know where else to go. Anyway, I posed this question earlier today.

"I have a question here for those in the know as I don't have a clue on where to look this information up. I need to drive a vehicle west originating from northeastern Ohio. I can either drive due west or take a more southern route by heading to Kentucky first and then heading west. Of issue is the fact that this vehicle is not snow worthy. Also, while I do not have to pick it up immediately, I also do not want to leave it there for very long. So, I've been trying to find any place listing the average date of the last snowfall in Ohio as well as any somewhat reliable 30 day long range forecasts for Ohio and neighboring states. I know long range forecasts are anyone's guess, but I'm sure there's probably someone's forecast out there that members here would tend to bet on more than others. I'm hoping to be able to pick up the car some weekend in March or the first week of April. As airlines charge a bunch of money when buying a ticket last minute, I'm wanting to try and pick the likely best weekend so I can buy my ticket with a little lead time and get a much cheaper rate. I'd be flying into Ohio on a Friday and driving west on the weekend. Anyone have any educated guesses on which weekend in March or maybe even first week in April might be best?"
Hello Greyelf..Heres the GFSx 10-day outlook Model.You can bookmark this one and check out in time by 10 days for a general Outlook in your area.

Link

On another thought, the highest winds in any tornado are likely to be in relatively small tornadoes (think of hurricanes; they tend to decrease in eye size and radius of maximum winds as they intensify). The F5 tornado in Canada last year wasn't very big:



For comparison, this is the Greensburg tornado:

MichaelSTL, I don't think that's correct. Tornado size has very little to do with wind speed. Also, keep in mind that large tornadoes often have multiple vorticies embedded within the walls of the larger outer vortex. These can play a major role in how much damage a large tornado does, which can vary over the course of a few hundred feet, even when hit with the same part of the tornado.

Interestingly, similar vorticies are suspected within hurricaine eye walls, which may account for the variation in damage.
Greyelf,
You can usually get cheap tickets with little advance notice on priceline. I don't know how they do with one-way, but a round trip might be similar in price. You have to bid on the flights, though. Oh, and depending on where you are coming from, it might be cheaper to fly into CAK than CLE. Check both. Flying into Pittsburgh would almost certainly be cheaper, but it's a bit of a haul from there to here. (ca. 100mi.)

Just so you know, here in northeast Ohio, we can get snow as late as early May, and April snows are common.
Here we go with those ole reliable climate models again.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 1004 PM EST TUE FEB 26 2008 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... WESTERN PASCO COUNTY IN FLORIDA. * UNTIL 1030 PM EST * AT 1004 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A TORNADO OVER NEW PORT RICHEY...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... NEW PORT RICHEY BY 1005 PM EST. JASMINE ESTATES BY 1010 PM EST. ODESSA BY 1020 PM EST. MOON LAKE ESTATES BY 1025 PM EST. LAND O' LAKES BY 1030 PM EST. THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM! MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING...AWAY FROM WINDOWS. COVER YOUR HEAD AND BODY WITH PILLOWS OR BLANKETS.
it seems the front has somewhat stalled over Tampa.
The front has moved little in 5 hours. Look at the 53 post above and the time at 5:14pm.
Looking at water vapor it appears the Subtropical jet is interacting with the cold front IMO.
There is a vortex off shore St. Pete due West about 125 miles appears off shore.
yawn tell me some in i dont no

Wasn't that a bit rude, Taz? >_>
The training rains are straining our drains.
Good Wednesday Morning to all:

6:56 AM AST WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 27, 2008

GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W....

An upper trough is situated over the Eastern half of the CONUS with the associated cold front pushing across the Gulf Mexico from the Tabasco Plain in the Southern Bay of Campeche to the Florida Peninsula and beyond. The front lies within a southwesterly upper flow regime between the associated upper trough and a weak ridge across the Caribbean. Scattered to broken multilayered cloudiness and embedded showers lies within 200 nm of the frontal boundary from Southeastern Mexico to the Western Atlantic, while covering the entire Florida Peninsula. Meanwhile, the associated surface high-pressure anticyclone is established 1030 mb over Eastern Texas at 31N/93W. This high is producing exceptionally fair and tranquil conditions over Northern Mexico, much of Texas, the Deep South, Southeast United States and the northwest corner of the Gulf behind the swath of moisture. The high is also producing a strong offshore flow with northerly winds of 25-35 knots and swells of 14 ft mainly west of 90W. As the front moves across the area these conditions should push into the Bay of Campeche and then the Gulf of Tehuantepec in the next 24 hrs. Expect storm force conditions and further upwelling within the Eastern Pacific Ocean. Expect 3-6 ft seas elsewhere across the Gulf waters but increasing to 6-10 ft as the front moves by.

The cold front continues from Central Florida northeastward to a 985 mb low over the Northeast United States near 41N/66W. This section of the front lies within a very favorable upper level environment with ample upper divergence and as a result scattered moderate to strong showers and thunderstorms lies along the front. Further east, a weak surface high is responsible for the weak surface pressure pattern across the Atlantic ahead of the front with 5-10 knot return flow and mainly fair weather.

CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION....

Due to the weakening of the subtropical ridge north of region, trades have now decrease to easterly at 10-15 knots and swells are now 3-4 ft and only 7 ft along the Colombian Coast. The bulk of the unsettle weather will be situated in the Northwest Caribbean where the cold front will enter the region bringing increase shower, wind and wave action. As for the remainder of the Caribbean, upper ridging and dry air will continue to maintain a stable airmass over much of the region, resulting in fair weather. Additionally, periods of brief passing showers can be expected across the Lesser Antilles and the Eastern Greater Antilles where the trades are advecting widespread patches of shallow moisture.


by W456
Good morning. Whew, close call with the storms last night. I don't think I'll like the lows of 43 degrees with windchills of 36 degrees tonight. Too cold for SoFlo.
Weather happens 365/24/7 for Marine Interest's
weather456 - nice review - I am not looking forward to working horses out on a track in this windy weather - promises to be a "dicey" morning. The unexpected strong gusts are great for blowing stuff around (palms, leaves..and the very worst plastic bags --most horses will swear a plastic bag can eat them)Was up on and off all night due to the wind - some very strong gusts 25mph. The Gulf must be rocking because I can hear from my house - not usual. Well I am off to work - definitely a day to wear my brain bucket - helmet, just in case - someone decides to spook.
5 years ago...this question was being researched.
I say lets expand the debate and target 2012,June 1 for a new One.


2003 Seattle Annual Meeting (November 2, 2003)
Paper No. 180-9
Presentation Time: 3:30 PM-3:45 PM
A NEW HURRICANE COASTAL IMPACT SCALE,CONTINUED WORK

Link

The ultimate goal of the proposed HIS is a tool for hurricane/weather forecasters to give coastal residents more information for preparing for a storms potential impact. As an example, Hurricane Andrew (1992) was one of the strongest storms on record (SSS category 4) but it was also a relatively small storm. Opal (1995) was a weaker storm (category 3) but it was much larger. Although Andrew caused a tremendous amount of inland wind damage, Opal actually caused more shoreline erosion and overwash. The HIS rankings reflect this (Andrew-8, Opal-11). Inclusion of the SSS in the HIS reflects the critical nature of storm strength in any such scale. Two storm surge parameters are justified because storm surge is the best measure of a hurricanes energy flux at the shoreline, and thus the potential for erosion, overwash, and property damage at and near the shore.

May 4th 2007 Greensburg Kansas Tornado. Incredible footage of the EF-5 tornado up close. Sean Wilson of Blown Away Tours along with Tim Andrews video taped this monster as they were traveling down hwy 183 with debris falling all around. Get ready for this wild ride.

Link
99. JFV 9:11 AM AST on February 27, 2008
Good Wednesday morning all!!! Hey Weather456, arent't those in-depth Atlantic Ocean weather discussions only valid during hurricane season?


no..i do them year round

102. StormW 9:45 AM AST on February 27, 2008
99. JFV 8:11 AM EST on February 27, 2008
Good Wednesday morning all!!! Hey Weather456, arent't those in-depth Atlantic Ocean weather discussions only valid during hurricane season?

Think of it kinda like 456 carrying on where I left off...during hurricane season when I post my tropical forecast, I will analyze a lot of different maps, and in my discussion will post items on the MJO, SOI, wind shear, where the TUTT(s) are located, approximation of tropical waves, etc.


Nope....i also analyse the tropics (TUTTS, ENSO, Teleconnections, the monsoon trof, etc) during the hurricane season. I only started posting them here during the off season when there is less traffic on the blog.

For example: Aug 13 2007

special tropical/subtropical systems....

an upper low is centred near 27n/91w. showers continue in the southeastern gulf of mexico where the upper level low interacting with a tropical wave along 86w. surface observations continue to indicate a broad area of low pressure centred on 1007 millibar low near 23n/83w. observation also indicate 20-25 knots which is in fair agreement with the current t numbers from ssd. sea surface temperatures are more than favourable to support development but 20-30 knots of shear is impeding development but is forecast to become more favourable. current forecast track is to head west-northwest towards central mexico/texas.

tropical depression four is centred near 12.0n/34.2w moving west near 17 knots as of 0145 utc. despite increase curve banding features with this system., the centre of circulation remains the eastern edge of the deep convective mass as some easterly shear continues to affect it. conditions still are forecast to become more favourable for additional organization and a tropical storm could form in next 12 hrs. dvorak t numbers have not change and remain at 2.0 or 30 knots. i don't think the forecast track will change much from 5 pm and the leeward islands still should closing monitor it.


and....

Excert from Sep 1 2006

As of 8amAST, Tropical Storm Florence was located at 24.4N/63.3W, moving WNW near 14mph. The storm is packing winds of 65mph and a MCP of 993mbars.

Florence has gain increased organization in the overnights and continues to organize at this moment. This morning visible imagery revealed banding developing in almost all quadrants and substantial outflow in the Eastern Semicircle of Florence's cloud canopy.
The center of Florence (which was also exposed 24hrs ago), is now located in a tightly, well define CDO (Central Dense Overcast).

According to 85H Brightness Temperature Imagery from the Navy, Florence appears to be forming an eye-wall, and could become a hurricane later today or on Sunday.

Ok, I'm trying this one last time since my last post was either lost or removed. I wanted to thank Patrap and Caffinehog for being the only two people to take the time out of their busy lives to answer my question. To the rest of you - keep your clique. I'm tired of trying to make a dent into your exclusive club. At the very least, I figured someone would say "Go away, this isn't on topic. Here's where to go to bother them with your question." I know I have never posted much here, but have from time to time - mostly ignored then too. I'm done.
111. HAARP
another reason that I would think is that as cities grow bigger and hotter they would disrupt the normal weather patterns causing disturbances in the upper atmosphere and other places...the increased building amounts may also change surface patters as there is more surface disturbances ...

Is there a reason these things dont get looked into or reported?

I would love to see a frequency MAP of these patterns and to see WHERE increases took place. Is there anywhere to find that?

Haarp, off the top of my head, I don't know of any of the type of resource that you want to find, but I'd bve interested in finding it as well. I can tell you, though, that meteorologists take into account cities when they forecast; essentially, a city acts like a hill and causes orographic lifting, leading to enhanced precipitation and other phenomenon. I'm not aware of any upper atmosphere disturbances that cities have been documented as the cause of, though.
Funny results from the Wunderpoll.Only 6 percent were most concerned about warmer temperatures,LOL.
Looking into next week,it looks like there may be some very beneficial rains for the drought stricken SE,here's hoping for you people that it happens.
Lol...warmer temperatures are the cause for all the other choices on the poll...so everyone got specific lol
no worries of drought here in the northeast:

...RECORD FEBRUARY PRECIPITATION FOR BOSTON...

WITH THE RAINFALL TOTAL OF 0.39 INCHES AT BOSTONS LOGAN
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT ON TUESDAY...A RECORD MONTHLY PRECIPITATION
RECORD HAS BEEN SET FOR FEBRUARY. THE MONTHLY PRECIPITATION TOTAL
SO FAR FOR FEBRUARY 2008 IS 7.86 INCHES.

THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 7.81 INCHES SET IN FEBRUARY 1984.

WEATHER RECORDS IN BOSTON DATE BACK TO 1872.

110. Greyelf 1:58 PM EST on February 27, 2008
Ok, I'm trying this one last time since my last post was either lost or removed. I wanted to thank Patrap and Caffinehog for being the only two people to take the time out of their busy lives to answer my question. To the rest of you - keep your clique. I'm tired of trying to make a dent into your exclusive club. At the very least, I figured someone would say "Go away, this isn't on topic. Here's where to go to bother them with your question." I know I have never posted much here, but have from time to time - mostly ignored then too. I'm done.


I only want to know what I was supposed to have posted when I DON'T KNOW THE ANSWERS TO ANY OF THE QUESTIONS!!!!! Some of us actually don't post if we don't know what the $#@% we are talking about.

OTOH, If u had asked about driving a car from the Bahamas, I may have been able to help you.

113. weatherboykris 2:13 PM CST on February 27, 2008
Funny results from the Wunderpoll.Only 6 percent were most concerned about warmer temperatures,LOL.


Well, I selected more extreme weather (and why would a 1 degree (or so) rise in temperatures matter much; I doubt I would notice if it was say, 101 degrees during a heat wave instead of 100 degrees). There is also some valid reason for me to be concerned about extreme weather, considering the last few years:

Ameren spokeswoman Susan Gallagher said more than 2,500 linemen from nine states are working to restore power. She said the company also has done a detailed analysis of the St. Louis region's weather in 2006, and found it had the most "weather events" in the nation.

"Things we had not seen recently, we're seeing a lot more of," she said, pointing to damaging wind storms this summer and a massive wintery storm last year.
Afternoon everybody.

I thought the blog header was really interesting today. One question, though:

Why is the US particularly vulnerable to tornados? I keep wondering why they aren't also common in places like China, Australia, and sub-equatorial Africa.
Severe weather isn't quite my top game.....but I do know the US has a very unique set up for tornadoes. The cold air in Canada combined with the warm-moist air from the Gulf of Mexico really enhance lows moving across the US...and provide all the ingredients necessary for severe weather. Also the jet-stream is usually in quite a favorable position over the southern states. Other places in the world don't have quite this perfect set-up of different airmass sources, and some that do aren't quite at the right latitude or location in the upper-air flow. In southern Asia the Bay of Bengal sometimes acts like the Gulf of Mexico and fuels severe storms in that area....but no location is quite as "perfect" as tornado alley here in the U.S.
116. NEwxguy 2:30 PM CST on February 27, 2008
no worries of drought here in the northeast:


We better hope that this isn't right, or a near-Biblical drought and heat wave will scorch virtually the entire U.S. this summer; it happened in 1988 (mainly in the East though, not the whole country), also a La Nina summer, so bad that it was the costliest U.S. natural disaster until Katrina:

Drought/Heat Wave Summer 1988. 1988 drought in central and eastern U.S. with very severe losses to agriculture and related industries; estimated $40.0 (61.6) billion damage/costs; estimated 5,000 to 10,000 deaths (includes heat stress-related).


At least that was the only major disaster in the U.S. in 1988 (according to the NCDC's billion dollar weather disasters page - though only $1 billion+ disasters are included, relatively few until the 1990s, the increase is of course likely due to increasing population and wealth more than more extreme weather).
I'm not surprised the sea level rise was also a popular choice. With populations near seacoasts increasing, more people are likely to be impacted. And in low-lying areas like the Bahamas and Florida, even a 1-foot increase can have detrimental effects.
121. MichaelSTL 3:42 PM EST on February 27, 2008

We better hope that this isn't right, or a near-Biblical drought and heat wave will scorch virtually the entire U.S. this summer;


WOW!! And places like Wyoming and Utah had really dry summers in 2007, with reservoir levels at their lowest in ages. If this eventuates, things are going to be even worse for the intermountain West.
I see what you're saying STL.I could even see how many people would enjoy the warmer temps,during the winter at least.Who dislikes 70 degrees in January?
I'm somewhat surprised that there wasn't an "other" option.
STL,then I guess I better hope for alot more rain,and get the resevoirs to the top.
Thats not good news for the summer
110. Greyelf 6:58 PM GMT on February 27, 2008
Ok, I'm trying this one last time since my last post was either lost or removed. I wanted to thank Patrap and Caffinehog for being the only two people to take the time out of their busy lives to answer my question. To the rest of you - keep your clique. I'm tired of trying to make a dent into your exclusive club. At the very least, I figured someone would say "Go away, this isn't on topic. Here's where to go to bother them with your question." I know I have never posted much here, but have from time to time - mostly ignored then too. I'm done.


Wow. I had no a idea that a "I do not know of any resource I would trust with a very long range forecast with a lot on money on the line" comment would have made anyone so warm and fuzzy. I guess we should all fill the page with "I dunno" every time a question is aksed from here on out. Of course a real answer might be buried in there somewhere, but c'est la vie. Better that than to have someone think we are really that cliqueish.
119. BahaHurican 4:35 PM AST on February 27, 2008
Afternoon everybody.

I thought the blog header was really interesting today. One question, though:

Why is the US particularly vulnerable to tornados? I keep wondering why they aren't also common in places like China, Australia, and sub-equatorial Africa.


I also use to wonder then a few years I discover something. Geography (location and physiograhy) played a major role. The flat open land of the great plains lies between three major airmassess. The Dry Continental tropical airmass of the mountains to the west, the warm moist tropical airmass to the south and he contintental polar airmasses to the north. Where else in the world on such a large scale (synoptic scale) a low level jets transport warm moist air at low levels from the gulf, while westerlies transport dry air from the mountains which is equivalent to the mid-levels of lower plains to the east. And along with that, the famous jet streams at 200 mb. This creates a very unstable situation, where u have mid level dry air above warm moist air. All u need now is lifting mechanism and there are several ways in which that moist air can rise and a cold front is major one. Then the jet provides the necessary spin.

The other place I wud say comes close to that is Australia but is there isnt enough lifting over the desert.

Sometimes I wonder how cud a place so perfectly fit all the neccessary conditions of tornado formation just by geography alone. I guess u guys are bad lucky.
123. BahaHurican 8:49 PM GMT on February 27, 2008
121. MichaelSTL 3:42 PM EST on February 27, 2008

We better hope that this isn't right, or a near-Biblical drought and heat wave will scorch virtually the entire U.S. this summer;

WOW!! And places like Wyoming and Utah had really dry summers in 2007, with reservoir levels at their lowest in ages. If this eventuates, things are going to be even worse for the intermountain West.

WOW!! the west has had more moisture, snow and rain, than they have had in the past 80 years, snow depths are at record highs. Just the fax, just the fax!
130. CJ5
Hello all...just checking in. I was wondering if the ghost of Ingrid is still out there..lol
WOW!! the west has had more moisture, snow and rain, than they have had in the past 80 years, snow depths are at record highs

Hint... hint...

La Nina Probably Contributed to Huge Tornadoes

Cooler than normal ocean temperatures in the mid-Pacific, called La Nina, have caused many bizarre weather effects in North America, including record snow and monster tornadoes.

Start Date: 5/10/99

A rash of killer tornadoes that swept through the midwest United States in early May -- including at least one giant F-5, the most powerful category, packing winds approaching 300 miles per hour -- were driven in part by La Nina, scientists say. The cold-water condition in the mid-Pacific ocean, also credited with dropping a record 91 feet of snow on mountains in Washington state this winter, can be expected to produce more devastating tornadoes in the coming months. Already the number recorded this season is running ahead of normal expectations.
"The signal is there," said Steve Byrd, science officer for the National Weather Service in Omaha, Neb. "The incidence of tornadoes on the central Plains is slightly higher during La Nina."


Washington state = West? Even California can get big storms during La Nina winters:

La Nina-influenced winters are often erratic, with extended periods of dry weather broken by intense periods of precipitation. Major flood events are a signature of La Nina years. According to Kelly Redmond of the Western Region Climate Center in Reno, all of California's top 10 floods occurred during La Nina winters.


I really suspect that drought in the West is more for the summer, not the winter, during La Ninas (as we have seen since last summer).
129. trunkmonkey 4:18 PM EST on February 27, 2008
123. BahaHurican 8:49 PM GMT on February 27, 2008
121. MichaelSTL 3:42 PM EST on February 27, 2008

We better hope that this isn't right, or a near-Biblical drought and heat wave will scorch virtually the entire U.S. this summer;

WOW!! And places like Wyoming and Utah had really dry summers in 2007, with reservoir levels at their lowest in ages. If this eventuates, things are going to be even worse for the intermountain West.

WOW!! the west has had more moisture, snow and rain, than they have had in the past 80 years, snow depths are at record highs. Just the fax, just the fax!


I'm going to have to check stats, but I don't think WY has got the same kind of precip this winter as other areas, particularly to the NW and south of it. Something about a rain shadow thing. A lot of water that drains through Utah to the Colorado originates in WY.

I'll see if I can find precip for WY for the last three months.

Yeah, I coulda left off the WOW!

LOL
STL, this still is all on the COAST as compared to WY, and UT. I'm going to check some records right now.
110. Greyelf 6:58 PM GMT on February 27, 2008
Ok, I'm trying this one last time since my last post was either lost or removed. I wanted to thank Patrap and Caffinehog for being the only two people to take the time out of their busy lives to answer my question. To the rest of you - keep your clique. I'm tired of trying to make a dent into your exclusive club. At the very least, I figured someone would say "Go away, this isn't on topic. Here's where to go to bother them with your question." I know I have never posted much here, but have from time to time - mostly ignored then too. I'm done.


I read your question and to answer it: Your best bet is to keep an eye on the 10 day forecast. Though this is constantly revised and could change it's about the most accurate thing you could go by.

That and check wunderground vs weather.com, and other sites that you could compare forecasts to.

In your heated response I think you forgot to mention StormW that had answered your question also *before* you posted the comment above.

Like many people said they simply just do not know the answer to your question. I know I sure dont. Just watch the 10 day, and if I were you I'd take the southern route.

You risk running into icy conditions on the northern route that time of year. Of course if it's still abnormally cold in the Kentucky area you risk ice there as well.

Best of luck to you in any case.

North Carolina

... Alleghany County...
Laurel Springs T 545 PM 2/27

... Ashe County...
Fleetwood 5.5 545 PM 2/27

... Watauga County...
Rominger 8.0 600 PM 2/27 Beech Mountain
Peoria 7.5 600 PM 2/27
Silverstone 7.5 600 PM 2/27 along Rich Mountain
Zionville 7.5 600 PM 2/27
Boone 3.5 600 PM 2/27


Snow should end by 1:00p.m Thursday here in N.C.Reports of white-outs and like blizzard like conditions.The highest elevations in N.C, slightly below 6000f.t got around and over 20inches.(Officaly 17 about 5hours ago)
North Carolina
More snow totals in.(Still another 5hours of heavy snow likely) From weatherunderground

... Avery County...
Beech Mountain 5.0 730 am 2/27 12 deg at 7 am
Elk Park 5.0 230 PM 2/27
Seven Devils 4.0 1149 am 2/27
Flat Springs 3.0 700 am 2/27 1.2 E Flat Springs
Minneapolis 3.0 225 PM 2/27
Newland 1.0 215 PM 2/27 Avery comms center

... Buncombe County...
Weaverville 3.0 700 am 2/27 4.7 NNW Weaverville
Asheville 1.0 110 PM 2/27
Asheville recreation 1.0 700 am 2/27 5.7 NNW Asheville
Enka 1.0 800 am 2/27
Swannanoa 1.0 800 am 2/27 2 S Swannanoa
Fairview T 700 am 2/27 3.8 ENE Fairview

... Graham County...
Robbinsville 9.0 930 am 2/27 9 W Robbinsville
Robbinsville 5.0 700 am 2/27 1.3 S Robbinsville
Robbinsville 4.0 930 am 2/27

... Haywood County...
Waynesville 7.0 155 PM 2/27 17 NE Waynesville
Waterville 5.0 130 PM 2/27 1 SW Waterville Lake
Maggie Valley 3.0 100 PM 2/27 4 NE Maggie Valley
Waynesville 3.0 110 PM 2/27 10 N waynesville3000ft
Maggie Valley 1.0 1230 PM 2/27 Post office report
Waynesville 0.5 1246 PM 2/27 pubic report

... Jackson County...
Dillsboro 0.5 700 am 2/27 6 NW Dillsboro
Sylva T 1117 am 2/27

... Macon County...
Franklin T 700 am 2/27 7.3 E Franklin

... Madison County...
Hot Springs 4.0 730 am 2/27
Marshall 4.0 730 am 2/27

... Mitchell County...
Buladean 8.0 215 PM 2/27 11 NNW Bakersville
Spruce Pine 2.0 730 am 2/27

... Swain County...
Newfound Gap 12.0 730 am 2/27 at 5000 feet
oconaluftee 1.0 700 am 2/27
Bryson City T 800 am 2/27

... Yancey County...
Burnsville 4.0 210 PM 2/27 9 NW Burnsville
Mount Mitchell 3.0 700 am 2/27 6 degrees at 7 am
Burnsville 2.0 700 am 2/27 4.6 N Burnsville


Follow up to this morning's synopsis

As the cold front exists the region, the associated high pressure continues to build across the Deep South producing moderate to strong offshore flow. This flow is assoicated with 20-35 knot north winds and 14-18 ft swells which are forecast to continue to push behind the front as it progresses southeastward.

I just checked some of the buoys out there and the winds and seas have subsided across the Western Gulf. Buoy 42002 in the western Gulf of Mexico has passed its peak today when it reported 13-14 ft seas and 29 knot sustain winds G 36 knots early this morning around 4-5 am. The bulk of the wave action has now moved into the central and Eastern Gulf as seen with buoy 42003 further east of afformentioned buoy.





Buoy 42001 in the central gulf


The Gulf of Tehuantepec is also experiencing another storm force event. This is about the 3rd for the year and the 4th for the winter season (December-April).



with all that upwelling along the Pacifc coast of central america, i wonder how early thier season will start. tho ssts can rebound in a matter of weeks
ok I promised my son I would ask the weather experts on underground. He missed a question on his science class in weather. The questions reads: What might happen when two air masses come together and form a warm front? answers A. steady rain B. thunderstorms C. a strong sea breeze and D. cooler temperatures. He answered B. thunderstorms and got it wrong. What do you think? Thanks
A warm front usually produces steady rain; although thunderstorms often form in the warm sector after a warm front has passed through, the front itself usually has just rain.
138. Weather456 6:04 PM CST on February 27, 2008
with all that upwelling along the Pacifc coast of central america, i wonder how early thier season will start. tho ssts can rebound in a matter of weeks


Last year had a record tying two storms in May, even though significant cooling had occurred by then in the East Pacific (cooling started as early as March, although it took until July to reach the central Pacific and thus be classified as a La Nina - I rememeber seeing something about strong La Ninas often developing in the Nino 1+2 region months before they reach the Nino 3.4 region, thus the CPC, which uses the 3.4 region, will often be months behind on the development - which was exactly the case last year).
139. weathers4me 8:18 PM AST on February 27, 2008
ok I promised my son I would ask the weather experts on underground. He missed a question on his science class in weather. The questions reads: What might happen when two air masses come together and form a warm front? answers A. steady rain B. thunderstorms C. a strong sea breeze and D. cooler temperatures. He answered B. thunderstorms and got it wrong. What do you think? Thanks


stratiform clouds are assoicated with warm fronts due to the front's gentle slope. Stratiform clouds produce steady rain. Cant be thunderstorms (not impossible) but warm fronts are not as convectively unstable as cold fronts.
Thank you weather456. Much appreciated.
Thanks for the responses after my post this morning. In regard to Hondaguy's paragraph on me not acknowledging StormW's response to me, as I said in my post 110, the post I originally made this morning was either lost or removed and at that time, I'm pretty sure he hadn't posted it yet. Either way, I do now also want to thank StormW for any help.

I can explain my being upset. The reason is that I thought for sure that the information I was seeking had to be a fairly simple find and with all of forecasters here, there was probably some site that many members use and average guy like me just doesn't know about it. I also thought that someone had to know where I might find historical weather data such as the average last snowfall in Ohio in a nice and tidy package somewhere.

In short, I'm just wanting to explain my curtness and pass around a big pan of apology brownies. I'm just anxious to pick up my Christmas present. (A convertible.)
139. weathers4me 12:18 AM GMT on February 28, 2008
ok I promised my son I would ask the weather experts on underground. He missed a question on his science class in weather. The questions reads: What might happen when two air masses come together and form a warm front? answers A. steady rain B. thunderstorms C. a strong sea breeze and D. cooler temperatures. He answered B. thunderstorms and got it wrong. What do you think? Thanks


Yes;the answer is A. D would only occur when the warm front passed a certain location,and the cold air wouldn't form simply because of the front,it would exist already. C makes no sense since most warm fronts typically form in the Midwest or Northeast. B is generally wrong,although if you were to be technical about it it's possible if the storms were near the low center ,although not farther out along the front.

my car took 2 cranks to start this morning....I'm going to blame global warming even though it might take two cranks at some point in the summer.

Seriously, let's just tie every bad weather streak into global warming and get over it already.
Tropical storm map is clear again! Is this the quiet pause as the ping pong ball passes back over the equatorial net to the northern hemisphere?

I wanted to thank other listers for answering my numerous questions too. You all have been very helpful.
Spring Tornadoes and ENSO?
April 26, 2007

Ashton Robinson Cook: Storm Prediction Center SCEP student

Oklahoma Climatological Survey
Apr 26, 2007 ... A further analysis reveals that stronger tornadoes (rated F2 or higher in the Fujita Scale) occur slightly more frequently in the La Nia ...

Link
Would somebody like to analyze this article, and post their comments??

http://www.dailytech.com/Temperature+Monitors+Report+Worldwide+Global+Cooling/article10866.htm

"Twelve-month long drop in world temperatures wipes out a century of warming

Over the past year, anecdotal evidence for a cooling planet has exploded. China has its coldest winter in 100 years. Baghdad sees its first snow in all recorded history. North America has the most snowcover in 50 years, with places like Wisconsin the highest since record-keeping began. Record levels of Antarctic sea ice, record cold in Minnesota, Texas, Florida, Mexico, Australia, Iran, Greece, South Africa, Greenland, Argentina, Chile -- the list goes on and on.

No more than anecdotal evidence, to be sure. But now, that evidence has been supplanted by hard scientific fact. All four major global temperature tracking outlets (Hadley, NASA's GISS, UAH, RSS) have released updated data. All show that over the past year, global temperatures have dropped precipitously.

A compiled list of all the sources can be seen here. The total amount of cooling ranges from 0.65C up to 0.75C -- a value large enough to wipe out most of the warming recorded over the past 100 years. All in one year's time. For all four sources, it's the single fastest temperature change ever recorded, either up or down.

Scientists quoted in a past DailyTech article link the cooling to reduced solar activity which they claim is a much larger driver of climate change than man-made greenhouse gases. The dramatic cooling seen in just 12 months time seems to bear that out. While the data doesn't itself disprove that carbon dioxide is acting to warm the planet, it does demonstrate clearly that more powerful factors are now cooling it.

Let's hope those factors stop fast. Cold is more damaging than heat. The mean temperature of the planet is about 54 degrees. Humans -- and most of the crops and animals we depend on -- prefer a temperature closer to 70.

Historically, the warm periods such as the Medieval Climate Optimum were beneficial for civilization. Corresponding cooling events such as the Little Ice Age, though, were uniformly bad news."
Good Morning ALL - hey weather456,enjoying your early morning reports - your wave forecast was really fun to see as well. I like to think that you guys are the hard science and I am on the other side of the spectra with hands-on observations. So yes, per your report and for interested surfers, yesterday the waves were about chest to shoulder high depend on which way the beach was facing. I enjoyed watching a few surfers after work, but it was just too cold for me by the time I got out of work.

Today, in agreement with Weather456, there is knee/thigh high (lower then yesterday)very clean waves (means no wind chop)The air is 47/gulf temp. is 67 winds presently off shore NE at 9-13 SRQ/WFL/GOMEX

SURFERS: LOOK FOR ANOTHER KICKER FRONT - tuesday. Unfortunately for me - the cold really deters me from getting wet.

150. thelmores 7:44 AM CST on February 28, 2008
Would somebody like to analyze this article, and post their comments??


That is crap - they obviously never heard of La Nina... Here is a very juicy article from the last La Nina of the current one's magnitude (1988):

Big Chill for the Greenhouse
Monday, Oct. 31, 1988 By EUGENE LINDEN

Already La Nina has been credited with a role in causing this summer's drought in the Midwest, the deluges that flooded Bangladesh in September and the severe hurricane season in the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. While widespread attention has been paid to the greenhouse effect -- the trend toward global warming due to the increase of carbon dioxide and other gases in the atmosphere -- some scientists believe that this winter La Nina will bring on a dramatic, though probably temporary, drop in average global temperatures. Says meteorologist and oceanographer James O'Brien of Florida State University: "We are predicting that by next year, average global temperature will retreat to 1950s levels, slowing up planetary warming by 30 to 35 years."


Also, the current global temperatures are not even below the 1971-2000 normals... much less the temperatures 100 years ago... only the coldest since 2000 (also a La Nina year; coincidence? I doubt it... and didn't last year start with record high global temperatures?) That article is just spin from coolies and denialists, who also have no idea of the effects of ENSO (what ENSO phase did last year begin with, associated with warmer temperatures, like the warmest Northern Hemisphere winter ever recorded and global land temperatures (last year), or the warmest year on record, depending on what data you look at?)
surfmom, morning. Glad to hear that.
michaelSTL re post152 Great explanation! My science background & verbal rebuttal skills are not always adequate enough for me to clearly express your posted information. FYI I just printed it out and sent it to a few people that I have flounder with in the past, trying to make your point as concisely.

Off to work, grateful that the winds have calmed down, horses are so much easier to manage without high winds. Although they will promise to be frisky with this cold snappy weather.....looks like another brain bucket (helmet) day, see you all tonight
Greetings StormW --off to work, thanks for your work! Looking forward to H-season w/you again this year.
GM all,still searching for signs of spring here in Mass.,snow in the air and 20 deg.,I don't think I'll search today. Maybe if I search the tropics for suspicious areas,that will warm me up
152. MichaelSTL 2:47 PM GMT on February 28, 2008
That is crap - they obviously never heard of La Nina...

Michael
The climate scientists that are predicting global warming
predicted a stronger El Nino

Not a La Nina

The climate did the opposite of what they were predicting.

If they can't predict that right
How are we supposed to believe that they can predict the future right?

.


....SYNOPSIS....

GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W....

A cold front has moved west of the region allowing surface ridging to take over. A sharp mid-upper level trough moving across the Eastern CONUS is digging well into the Gulf of Mexico. This feature is supporting a 1028 mb surface high over the Florida Panhandle near 31N/88W. This high is producing exceptionally tranquil conditions over the Southern United States from Texas to Florida and most of the Gulf of Mexico. The high is also responsible for weak offshore flow across the Northwest corner of the Gulf increasing towards the Southeastern Gulf where the pressure gradient becomes tightest. 3-6 ft swells everywhere with 6-7 ft seas in the SE Corner.

A cold front extends from the Caribbean across Central Cuba and the Bahamas to beyond 30N/60W. A swath of scattered cloudiness and showers extends within 120 nm either side of the front line.

by W456
161. DG136
Is the NHC ever goign to publish a tropical cyclone report on TS Erin?
http://www.surfingnosara.com/ The waves are going off for an out of season south pacific swell. All the west coast of latin america should be getting this one.
159. latitude25 9:30 AM CST on February 28, 2008
152. MichaelSTL 2:47 PM GMT on February 28, 2008
That is crap - they obviously never heard of La Nina...

Michael
The climate scientists that are predicting global warming
predicted a stronger El Nino

Not a La Nina

The climate did the opposite of what they were predicting.

If they can't predict that right
How are we supposed to believe that they can predict the future right?



In the long term, ENSO doesn't matter...

Also, here is an interesting graph that I found on another site:

Here is a plot of the sum of Wolter's MEI index, the PDO index and NAO index v HadCRU global:


Notice that after 1990, and particularly after 1998, the PDO, AMO and ENSO no longer follow global temperatures... I wonder why...


Also, here is something EXTREMELY interesting:

Why do you think your paper is highly cited?

The paper represents a sharp departure from a long-standing paradigm in paleoclimatology, which holds that the tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere circulation during the peak of the last ice age was comparable to a persistent or prevailing La Nina, a circulation mode marked by enhanced equatorial upwelling, east-west temperature contrast, and zonal trade winds. We proposed on the basis of new paleoceanographic data that the more proper analogy is instead with El Nino, i.e. marked by weaker upwelling, weaker temperature gradients, and weaker winds near the equator. This new hypothesis challenges the old premises in the field of tropical paleoclimatology, and provides a novel framework for reinterpreting parallel lines of evidence, data, and mechanisms relating to Earth's climate history of the last 30,000 years and beyond. Many authors are finding this a compelling and intriguing new concept and are eager to examine their own work in its light.


More El Ninos = ice age? Warming = more La Ninas? I am not exactly sure what the reason is, but I suspect it has to do with heat balance between the oceans and atmosphere; the oceans release heat during El Nino and absorb it during La Nina; this is also why ENSO events eventually dissipate; notice the large subsurface warm pool that has built up in the most recent event (it has also built up a lot faster than in the 1998-2000 La Nina, when it took 2 years to get this strong, some are already predicting an El Nino by next year):



Warm water is already appearing off South America (the current La Nina started in the same way at about the same time last year, although a similar thing happened in 1999, to the point where the Nino 3 region warmed to neutral, but La Nina restrengthened):

"Warm water is already appearing off South America (the current La Nina started in the same way at about the same time last year,"

That is not "warm water", that is the change in water temperature. anomaly
It's summer down there, it's supposed to change.

"in the long term, ENSO doesn't matter..."

Of course it does.

If not, all of the global warming predictions would have come with a disclaimer:

"for all the denialists, we predict a La Nina in the next two years that will cool global temperatures for the next 30-35 years. But we are still right, after this cooling global temperatures will shoot back up at a alarming rate."

"they obviously never heard of La Nina..."

You said yourself it's obvious.

And they obviously did not predict it, and
missed it.

If they can't predict something that obvious,
how are we supposed to believe they can predict the future?
we predict a La Nina in the next two years that will cool global temperatures for the next 30-35 years

ROTFL...

They meant that global temperatures would fall to levels 30-35 years ago for the next year or so... not for the next 30-35 years...

Oh, and isn't global warming a LONG TERM TREND. i.e DECADES?
Seriously, who came up with the term "global warming"?

And don't tell me Al Gore either.

Thanks in advance.
You can laugh all you want to
But that is not what that paper you quoted from 1988 said.

It said the La Nina would set global warming back 30 - 35 years.

"We are predicting that by next year, average global temperature will retreat to 1950s levels, slowing up planetary warming by 30 to 35 years."

I'm talking about the current La Nina anyway.

The one that our current climate scientists did not predict.

The same current science and current predictions about the future
that they missed completely.
I truly believe a lot of the "short-term" global warming/cooling trends that people go on and on about has a lot to do with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. It's kind of a long-term pattern which involves the ENSO but goes a little bigger than that. I had a whole massive blog on it last year which I could dig up but I'm not about to re-write it here lol. On the link above there's also a chart of the PDO index since 1900. There's a clear 30-40 year pattern....very negative in the 1940s through the 60s....went positive from the late 70s till present...and technically we're due to start going back down....and this year the PDO is indeed negative...which we can't jump on...but I think the 30-40 year cycles of the PDO are to blame for a lot of this extremist views on Global warming/cooling every time something like this happens.
The greenhouse effect was discovered by Joseph Fourier in 1824 and was first investigated quantitatively by Svante Arrhenius in 1896. It is the process by which absorption and emission of infrared radiation by atmospheric gases warm a planet's lower atmosphere and surface

Wow... Obviously it is nothing new...
Michael, why are you jumping all over the place and not following the conversation?

No one said this was new.

Since the beginning of time, there have been people predicting some sort of disaster or the other.

Just for fun....here was my blog on the PDO a year ago March 2007....you can skip the whole top part about the hurricane season lol. My thoughts haven't changed a whole lot since then, but I haven't exactly re-read the whole thing yet lol.
It said the La Nina would set global warming back 30 - 35 years.

"We are predicting that by next year, average global temperature will retreat to 1950s levels, slowing up planetary warming by 30 to 35 years."


YEAH, BUT IT ALSO SAID THIS:

some scientists believe that this winter La Nina will bring on a dramatic, though probably temporary, drop in average global temperatures

Ovbiously they were right about that (and this also shows that Levi's dumb PDO isn't everything, as the graph I posted earlier also shows, and it even includes forcings from the AMO and ENSO):



Yeah, there are some ups and downs, but look at the LONG TERM TREND!

Sheesh... I wish that I was the admin here... although I can just ignore all of you subhumans...

And this proves just how so:

166. tillou 4:54 PM GMT on February 28, 2008
Seriously, who came up with the term "global warming"?

And don't tell me Al Gore either.

Thanks in advance.


169. MichaelSTL 11:00 AM CST on February 28, 2008
The greenhouse effect was discovered by Joseph Fourier in 1824 and was first investigated quantitatively by Svante Arrhenius in 1896. It is the process by which absorption and emission of infrared radiation by atmospheric gases warm a planet's lower atmosphere and surface

Wow... Obviously it is nothing new...



170. latitude25 5:01 PM GMT on February 28, 2008
Michael, why are you jumping all over the place and not following the conversation?

Action: | Ignore User



Bye-bye!!! (and don't try to reply; you no longer exist to me)
Well well......maybe we all woke up on the wrong side of the bed this morning....lol.

I don't think the PDO shows that global warming doens't exist...it DOES....but in my blog last year I put up a temp graph like yours Michael and it goes up and down but at a "slant" which goes upward in time....like a sin curve in math but tilted upward from left to right....as I said I'm not gonna re-write my blog here though it's all written there if you want to read it. Otherwise we should probably drop this now.
Latitude...it's ok let it go....this subject gets heated really fast....no wonder some people call it a religion(rolls eyes)
Well a few thousand years ago, we would have just thrown 10 virgins in the volcano and be done with it.
177. Inyo
Or it could be that increased energy input to the atmosphere (due to increased CO2 levels)is increasing fluxuations in climate patterns, rather than simply warming the earth. That would result in cold years too and I think it has been in the climate mdoels for a long time.
Could be nearly anything....or a combination of everything....point is we really don't know yet science hasn't proved anything in this area. How can we predict it when we don't even know what the cause is for sure yet. There is no one cause either...it's a combination of a lot of things adding together, natural and man-made alike. It's a research project that should definitely continue....but based on the evidence we have right now we can't draw conclusions on how it will turn out, why and how it started, or how to help prevent the disasters they try to predict. Yes we should support climate research, and do what we can to reduce what are already toxic gases in the first place, it's not like it's gonna do any harm to take those measures and reduce them. To me it's an intriguing mystery that will take time to unravel and that's the challenge. I love it, it's weather, I mean come on, that's why we're here, we love it, lol.

End of rant
-------------------------------------------
"and I think it has been in the climate mdoels for a long time."

Are you saying that the climate models are predicting that the climate will not be static and it will change?

Wasn't that about the same time that it changed from global warming to climate change?

climate change?
"it's not like it's gonna do any harm to take those measures and reduce them"

Well, I don't know about that.

The world is in a major food shortage because too many cereal crops are being diverted to bio-fuel - right now.

Rain forests are being cut down at an even faster rate to plant palm trees for palm oil for bio-fuel.

More land in this country is being plowed and planted with corn for bio-fuel - pesticides, fertilizer, water -
15 million new acres of farm land were converted to corn in 2007, additional to previous years.

My biggest fear is that we are running helter skelter trying to fix something, that may or may not even need fixing.
and doing more damage in the process.
Quite possible....earth survived without all this technology for a long time...no reason why nature shouldn't be able to correct itself now either.
Are tornadoes getting stronger?

Are rain drops getting wetter?

LOL MP.
Global Warming? 28 degrees in Ocala, Florida last night! Cruel weather, recent rains & moderate temps had everything blooming-until last night.
"My biggest fear is that we are running helter skelter trying to fix something, that may or may not even need fixing.
and doing more damage in the process."

This is a good point. I believe global warming exists, and does need fixing, but we have to be careful about how we fix it.
For example, we've suddenly discovered that growing corn for ethanol actually puts out a lot of CO2 right now, and we won't break even for over a century. Additionally, the fertilizer that gets into the water is expected to cause a much larger dead zone in the gulf now, possibly causing the collapse of the entire ecosystem there.
It's true that we may be approaching the point of no return, but we might be past it already, or it might be far off. We don't know. We have to make sure we don't do too much damage with knee-jerk responses. We need to mount a carefully planned, tested response to global warming, and we need to follow up to see if it works and what the other consequences are.
Burning alcohols derived from vegetables should take us out at a faster pace than burning fossil fuels.
Maybe this is important to some of you. Also, I had a thought that in a couple of years someone here is going to tell us that there have been record numbers of eastern Pacific tropical cyclone public advisories and we should all be scared d;-)

from email:
TO: SUBSCRIBERS:
-FAMILY OF SERVICES
-NOAA WEATHER WIRE SERVICE
-EMERGENCY MANAGERS WEATHER INFORMATION NETWORK
OTHER NWS PARTNERS...AND NWS EMPLOYEES

FROM: THERESE Z. PIERCE
CHIEF...MARINE AND COASTAL SERVICES BRANCH

SUBJECT: CHANGE TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY
PRODUCT FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC: EFFECTIVE
MAY 15 2008

EFFECTIVE MAY 15 2008...THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER/NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER /NHC/ WILL CHANGE THE ISSUANCE CRITERIA FOR THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY /TCP/ PRODUCT FOR STORMS IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE BASIN. THIS AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY
BEGINS AT LONGITUDE 140 DEGREES WEST AND EXTENDS TO THE EAST.

THE FOLLOWING PRODUCTS ARE AFFECTED BY THIS CHANGE:

HURRICANE BASIN AWIPS ID WMO HEADING
EASTERN PACIFIC TCPEP/1-5/WTPZ/31-35/ KNHC

CURRENTLY PUBLIC ADVISORIES FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE
BASIN ARE ISSUED ONLY WHEN TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONES ARE
EXPECTED TO THREATEN LAND AREAS WITHIN 48 HOURS. EFFECTIVE MAY 15
2008...PUBLIC ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL EASTERN PACIFIC
TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONES...REGARDLESS OF PROXIMITY TO
LAND AREAS.

THIS CHANGE IN ISSUANCE CRITERIA FOR EASTERN PACIFIC /TCP/
PRODUCTS PROVIDES A UNIFORM SERVICE LEVEL ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC...EASTERN PACIFIC...AND CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
BASINS. THERE ARE NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE PRODUCT.

ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON THE /TCP/ MAY BE FOUND AT /USE LOWER CASE
LETTERS/:

HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTNHCPROD.SHTML

IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS...PLEASE CONTACT:

SCOTT KISER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MARINE AND COASTAL SERVICES BRANCH
1325 EAST WEST HWY ROOM 13126
SILVER SPRING MARYLAND 20910
PHONE: 301-713-1677 EXTENSION 121
186. franck 7:31 PM GMT on February 28, 2008
Burning alcohols derived from vegetables should take us out at a faster pace than burning fossil fuels.


Shhh! Don't tell anyone, this is a great big secret that most of the GW religious leaders will not talk about.

There is actually less available energy in a unit volume in ethanol vs gasoline. The result? More ethanol must be burned to do the same amount of work leading to more CO2, NOx, and hydrocarbon emission.
Looking through some of the earlier posts:

Hey, guys, us coolies and/or doubters cannot have it both ways. We are very quick to shoot down the warmies over any singular weather event/day/month/year as some sort of proof of GW. The same is true of the reciprocal. No single event/day/month/year/or ENSO cycle means anything in the grand scheme of multi-decadal climate change in either direction. Notice I did not cover any thought of status quo climate...if you believe that enjoy your bliss.

As to models, they are very sensitive to the slightest erroneous assumption/incorrect data/current conditions. Did I say climate models? No. Any complex physical model. I just finished (yesterday) a full rehash of Katrina in a storm surge model with a change in the tidal cycle. If the high/low tides occurred 3 hours earlier, the surge along the MS coast is very different during/after Katrina. More surge in a few areas (west, towards Slidell), but overall more than a meter less surge for most of the coast.

That is an example of the sensitivity to a single changed parameter. What if there is an analagous behavior in the climate models? Predicted drought turns into normal rainfall? Sea level rise drastically reduced? Increased shear (fewer TCs)? I am not claiming to know, but I do know that my faith in a nearly infantile field of climate modeling is not strong. We have difficulty modeling frontal passages more than a week in advance. Long-term modeling is built around not resolving such details, but just assuming they happened and assuming the results. I my view, that needs a lot of work before it can intelligently be used to plan for any future predictions.
National Hurricane Preparedness Week
History teaches that a lack of hurricane awareness and preparation are common threads among all major hurricane disasters. By knowing your vulnerability and what actions you should take, you can reduce the effects of a hurricane disaster. Hurricane Preparedness Week during 2008 will be held May 25th through May 31st.

Link

Do you Have a Family Disaster Plan?

Hurricane Awareness:

Family Disaster Plan

1.Discuss the type of hazards that could affect your family. Know your home's vulnerability to storm surge, flooding and wind.

2.Locate a safe room or the safest areas in your home for each hurricane hazard. In certain circumstances the safest areas may not be your home but within your community.

3.Determine escape routes from your home and places to meet. These should be measured in tens of miles rather than hundreds of miles.

4.Have an out-of-state friend as a family contact, so all your family members have a single point of contact.

5.Make a plan now for what to do with your pets if you need to evacuate.

6.Post emergency telephone numbers by your phones and make sure your children know how and when to call 911.

7.Check your insurance coverage - flood damage is not usually covered by homeowners insurance.

8.Stock non-perishable emergency supplies and a Disaster Supply Kit.Link

9.Use a NOAA weather radio. Remember to replace its battery every 6 months, as you do with your smoke detectors.

10.Take First Aid, CPR and disaster preparedness classes.
Hello gang, havent been here since Hurricane Season ended. I was curious as to what have been the Pacific and Atlantic ocean temps thus far. Are we above or below average?

Thanks

Will
184. groundswell 7:13 PM GMT on February 28, 2008
Global Warming? 28 degrees in Ocala, Florida last night! Cruel weather, recent rains & moderate temps had everything blooming-until last night.



Not Global Warming, think more Climate Change...it's a very touchy subject, and only time will tell who has the right spin on it, but being an extremist in either camp does everyone a disservice
OK-climate change. But with a worldwide population explosion continuing, there would seem to be little hope of bringing emissions under control. Everybody wants a nice, comfortable life, and that costs.
Hi Floodman longtime no see.

************

I'm beginning to believe that research might show that any upward trends in recorded temperatures might be demonstrated to correlate with the membership trends on WU. It seems that whenever someone rubs the GW/CC chestnut this site starts emitting more heat than light. Now I am keeping in mind that my first research methods drummed it into our heads that "correlation is not causation" but it may "Call For Further Research.
Howdy all.
Some good posts recently, and some bad ones too. The GW 's and the Status Quo keepers.
Its all good in the end.
By the way, realy nice weather here at 11n 61w, with dry season setting in. Cool, breezy days with occasional showers and all the trees flowering, and losing leaves.
Cutting fire traces and topping up watertanks in preparation for April and May, when the fires rage.
Flood,I miss your voice of logic.
Hey All........Finally been getting some frosty shots of air around the Gulf areas to keep the local waters cool a bit longer............Dropping back down to the upper 20's tonight in the Florida Panhandle...See Yall Tommorow.........
Howdy, shen...NEWx, only logic will see us through the times ahead
193. groundswell 9:25 PM GMT on February 28, 2008
OK-climate change. But with a worldwide population explosion continuing, there would seem to be little hope of bringing emissions under control. Everybody wants a nice, comfortable life, and that costs.



Research, gs...we've knwon about these issues for a very long time. We should have been researching alternatives this whole time...oh, well *SIGH*
Hello gang, havent been here since Hurricane Season ended. I was curious as to what have been the Pacific and Atlantic ocean temps thus far. Are we above or below average?

The current anomaly relative to the 1985-1993 (omitting 1991 & 1992) climatology shows a warm GoM, a cool Caribbean and a cold Pacific except for some of Central America. I personally think the anomaly-relative-to-some-other-measurement does not get enough play here and elsewhere. "Anomalous relative to what?" should cruise through your minds every time the anomalous word comes up. I am certain I could build a dataset that show a cool anomaly in the GoM right now.

Hey all, Just checking the weatherstation and to my surprise it got down to 28.6 here in zephyrhills FL.last night Brrrr.
201. severstorm
Hope you brought the Zephyrs inside.
Hi all

Nice cold front in the NW Caribbean today. We have not had many this year and if this pattern holds the Caribbean will start the 08 hurricane season with above average water temps.
Hard to believe we are only 3 months away from June 1 st !
kmanislander , another worry to worry about for a few months lol
haha

Well at least I just ordered hurricane impact resistant windows for my home. Now I can sit inside and look out while I am panicing LOL
lol hey thank god shutters arent that hard to put up
I was checking the buoys to the S of the Caymans and would you believe that the two that were out of service from around may last year are STILL out.This is almost a year now that they have not been scheduled for maintenance

You would think that two buoys in the Central and NW Caribbean would be priority items
i guess they're not worried about the buoys
Are tornadoes getting stronger and more frequent?

Nope ..just mother nature doing her thing I think...LOL
I have shutters but they are recessed ply wood with dead bolts into the side of the sill.

With a 2 storey home I need help with ladders and putting them up requires relatively calm winds. Too much work and somewhat dangerous on ladders if the wind is kicking up.

Plus Ivan ruined my windows with salt water so now is a good time to change them out
I don't normally blog off season but do lurk from time to time until June. Thought I would check in and say hi. Soon the " pre season " analysis will begin and it will be prediction time LOL

Sure don't want to see 2 CAT 5's treking through here again this year

Will check back from time to time. Watch out for those tornados. What a year its been for those. At least we get days of warning for tropical systms
kman dont be fooled by that so called hurricane proof stuff they also claimed the titanic unsinkable better be at least 200mph + rated
Hi there keeper

I know what you mean. Luckily all my windows are long and narrow (90 x 24 and 78 x 24 inch wide )so they are naturally rigid to begin with.Looking at Anderson windows for replacements

Doubt you'll see 2 Cat 5's rolling through the caribbean this season.
Lots of different views on this seasons activity but the vibe iam getting is a pretty normal season number wise with similar areas being affected.Rather cool MDR as of right now.
A strong pre-season La Nina has never resulted in a high activity tropical season.About Ninety percent of high activity seasons occur under ENSO neutral pre-season conditions.We'll see what the coming months bring.A good 6 months for the meat of the season.
Hi H23

Good to see you. I agree. Last year was unusual with Dean and Felix.
I was commenting earlier that we have not had more than a couple of cold fronts in the NW Caribbean this "winter"
Those fronts take water temps down with relatively cold temps as well as from some degree of upwelling from high winds.

By the end of March we typicaaly have had all the fronts that we will see so that bears some watching for SST's
waters off of africa are warming as if a show of a warning along east as well sst's from ny all the way to southern waters newfoundland are high which i find strange so late in winter
I do recall earlier seasons where cold front activity was down prior to the hurricane season and even though water temps were up overall activity was down. Perhaps there is a correlation between reduced cold front activity and a pre season La Nina coupled with reduced hurricane activity.

Will be interesting to see how this plays out this yr.
Kman check your mail!Thanks
how thick is that glass kman
Last year was unusual with Dean and Felix.

Perhaps, but those two storms were strikingly similar to the strongest storms in 1988, the last La Nina that was as strong as the current one:









The U.S. only got hit by a few weak storms in both years. On the other hand, what happened in 1989 (only 11 storms, but as often said, it only takes one)?
The great Hugo was the highlight of the year.The flooding from allison and Chantal were significant events also.
One of my favorite videos off all time recorded from a good friend.Peak winds of 135mph are observed along with gusts to 165.

Good evening. Good to see you Kman.
Great weather here in Trinidad. Dry season setting in slowly, and still occasional showers to keep the fires away.
Hoping for a tranquil Caribbean Hurricane season come June and beyond.......
imo more frequent cat 5's are goin to occur and they will become quicker in developing when they do occur and we have already been a witness to that lets see if pattern continues over the coming seasons
Sorry Keeper I was off looking at something online. I am waiting on price quotes for the Andersen 400 series window that has different specs depending on the design pressure tolerance of the glass ( which comes in varying thicknesses ). There are so many to choose from now, like CGI, PGT etc

Suffice it to say that I will be buying the strongest available !
Hi Pottery

Great to see so many on tonight during the " off season ". Nice and cool and windy here. So unlike summer. By late march we are in the peak of the drought with climbing temps. Have to enjoy the next 3 weeks or so
Well I am off for tonight.Time to catch up with the news ( like there is anything other than politics right !! )

Look forward to chatting with you all again real soon
god 23 the sound of that wind on that video is bone chilling. i get the same sounds when high i get high winds. In between my and my neighbors house it is exactly like a wind tunnel
hurricane23

I was in Charleston, SC during Hugo. It was like nothing I have ever seen nor wish to see again.
everyone got quiet all of a sudden
just scaning atlantic basin and near 27n 32.9w nice little spin nothing of coarse but odd
Evening everybody.

Just checking in. The cold front went through here last night. It was really cold last night after the leading edge passed. However this morning it was surprisingly warm, perhaps because there was relatively little wind. It's supposed to warm up considerably by Saturday, and I can see that as quite a reasonable happening.

More tomorrow. G'night!
$4.oo a gallon for fuel this summer? It will be tough to keep the tank full during Cape verde season.
Aloha & Gmorning. Woke to 47 degrees here in SRQ, cranky cause I am tired of being COLD - WFL surfers look to have an exciting week coming up. Get your boards ready. The front on tues should deliver some great midweek waves. Monday starts the building (1-2ft)Tuesday promises bigger waves, but expect that w/windy conditions and squally weather, Now if I understand this correctly.... We are looking at 6ft. on wednesday --still hard for me to see that in the Gulf w/out Wilma, but that seems to be what they are calling for. (i am going to check this further) a steady drop after that with waves expected to be 2-3ft. Check (as I will) Magic seaweed to verify wave heights and plan your skip school/skip work excuses accordingly. Presently the Gulf is 64 degrees - cooled off three degrees since this last front.
Good Morning All......For our friends in the SE/Along the Gulf, enjoy the nice weather over the weekend, but, as Storm has noted (and I find it interesting that local weathermen in North Florida are already talking about the possibility of a "bumpy ride" on Monday-Tuesday), SPC is predicting a high 30% probability of a severe weather outbreak as the next front crosses LA-AL-FL-GA starting on Monday......As always, keep a NOAA radio handy and it might be a good idea (if you live in a sturdy structure)to let friends and family who might live in moble homes know that they would be welcome to "stay over" on Monday if the need arises.....We'll probably have a pretty good idea of what is coming (and things can change)by mid-Monday and I'm sure that the Blog will be busy on Monday.....Take Care All and I'll See You Next Week.......
$4.00 for Gas! Glad I have a VW diesel, never the less, makes those surf safari trips to the east coast rather expensive.

The people I really feel for are the farmers - for me in the horse industry (POLO) it is now starting to really hurt. Feed, hay, alfalfa flakes, shavings,these prices are escalating every month - some times weekly. The drought intensifies this further. Many people have been serious hurt as they figured barn fee contracts based on numbers that have gone through the roof. Polo is a wealthy enclave, up until this time I have noticed that most of these people have been insulated (and very callous & unaware) until recently. Now I am observing people who are normally clueless about the world outside their comfort zone start to feel what I have been feeling every time I go to buy groceries. Maybe now they will understand what the worker is getting paid in regard to what it costs to fill my tank. The salary is not keeping up with my diesel tank or my grocery bill. Very interesting times ahead.
good morning everyone,what are the chances of south florida getting severe weather early next week?
One can find their Local 7 day forecast by inserting your Location or Zip Code in the Box on top Left of this page. Forecasts for any location worldwide.
120 hour GOM SSt model

Link
241. yamil20 9:15 AM EST on February 29, 2008
good morning everyone,what are the chances of south florida getting severe weather early next week?


The "cut-off" on the SPC forecast, for right now, is around Central Florida, but as usual, one does not know how "low" the strong low pressure system will trail accross Florida on Monday..............The West coast of Florida needs to be watching closely as well I would think...
Reliably....this is as far out as the Florida forecast can go regarding any severe weather:


Photobucket

Anybody got a minute...vocab word definitions would be appreciated. What is SPC and then per StormW's post What does SLGT and D4-5 appearing on the SPC maps mean? Thanks big
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0324 AM CST FRI FEB 29 2008

THE SQUALL LINE WILL PEAK IN INTENSITY MONDAY AFTN/NIGHT ACROSS THE LWR MS/DEEP S WITH ALL FACETS OF SVR WEATHER PSBL...THOUGH PRIMARY SVR THREAT SHOULD BE DMGG WIND GUSTS. THE LINE WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY OVER THE SERN STATES/ERN CAROLINAS AS THE STRONGEST ASCENT/LLJ AXIS BEGIN TO TRANSLATE NWD INTO THE MID-ATLC REGION.


It will be touch and go for the SE on Monday.....Just need to stay alert....
Totally cool link -post 243- really like that one ptrap - have you ever checked out www.magicseaweed.com? You might enjoy information provided there.
Thanks BIG StormW - I always feel like such a goof for these simple questions...but I got to start somewhere. LOL Off to work. bb later in the PM
Adrian,

Going back to 1950, 4 out of 5 years have shown above normal Atlantic tropical cyclone activity in La Nina years where the La Nina is an ongoing event from the prior year. The only exception is 1975

1950
1955
1971
1999

Those 4 years all had above normal activty in the tropical Atlantic.
Yikes...wasn't 1950 the year of the infamous hurricane Dog?
Good morning everyone, BTW...
Ooops, my bad...1950 was hurricanes Easy and King, both south Florida CAT 3s
There was quite a few bad ones in 1950.

Still holds the record for most majors in one season.
Tropical Cyclone Tracker ..This viewer is an interactive track of every Atlantic Tropical Cyclone and Hurricane since 1950. To view a specific hurricane, select a year from the menu
Link
'55 was a bad year for the Carolinas, '71 had no majors, and '99 had Brett...I'm afraid we'll see some action this year; only once have we gone through three contiguous years without a major
wunderground 1950 H-season archive Link
So Storm, Patrap, Sullivan...how have you been? Ive been sio caught up in work and *other* things that I've had very little opportunity to come in here...
I've been dealing with the snow, bro.

19" of snow over the previous week here with another 4-8" expected tonight.

There's another storm coming here on Tuesday and Wednesday which is looking to be on the rain side rather than snow, but the rain/snow line is within 100 miles of my place and the trend over the previous 2 week has definitely been to shift these systems southeast as they draw near. So I could be looking at another major storm as some emsemble members are still indicating a classic nor'easter which could drop over a foot of snow. Then there's another storm on models prepped to come through here next Friday and Saturday.

If everything works out on the snow side we could have a 3 foot snowpack here by next Sunday.

I don't like to think about a 3 foot snowpack heading into spring around these parts cause that only means that we have the potential for extensive flooding should we all melt at once as we did in April of 2004.


How's things been down your way?
OKay Flood, good to c ya
The usual roller coaster of Texas weather...80 degrees one day, and 35 the next. I'l be honest with you, I'm really strating to miss the occasional snow day (my kids live in St Louis with their mom, and they've had what would have been a normal winter when I grew up there...6, maybe 7 snows, all of them 4" or better). We're under a red flag warning for grass fires; the humidity here has been extremely low, and up here on the bald prairie the wind blows pretty good every day...

That having been said, hopefully you guys won't see a great deal of flooding; I grew up in little river towns in Missouri and I know from floods
Patrap, the pleasure is all mine...you stayiong healthy? You scard us there in the fall, you know
Good evening, Flood :-) Wie geht's? Haven't seen you here for a while. I have a meeting in half an hour so I have to be on my way but I'll peep in later tonight. See you!

Thanks for asking the simple questions, surfmom, and thanks for answering, StormW, it helps also other people on the blog :)
Heavy Snow Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1026 AM EST FRI FEB 29 2008

HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-
NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-
WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-
CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION...
VERNON...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...ORANGE...BARRE...FITCHBURG...
FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...
AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...SPRINGFIELD...MILFORD...WORCESTER...
AYER...JAFFREY...KEENE...MANCHESTER...NASHUA...PETERBOROUGH...
WEARE
1026 AM EST FRI FEB 29 2008

...HEAVY SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 12 PM EST SATURDAY...

A HEAVY SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO
12 PM EST SATURDAY.

THIS WARNING INCLUDES MUCH OF MASSACHUSETTS ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE MASSACHUSETTS TURNPIKE AND NORTH AND WEST OF ROUTE 128...
EXTENDING NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE.

SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY THIS EVENING...
REACHING NORTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS BY MIDNIGHT. THE SNOW WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SNOWFALL
RATES AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR.

SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE 4 TO 8 INCHES NEAR THE MASSACHUSETTS
TURNPIKE TO THE ROUTE 128 CORRIDOR...WITH AMOUNTS INCREASING TO
8 TO 12 INCHES FROM THE BERKSHIRES AND NORTHERN WORCESTER HILLS
NORTH INTO THE MONADNOCKS.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

A HEAVY SNOW WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN AN AVERAGE OF 6 OR MORE
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD OR FOR 8 OR MORE
INCHES IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD. TRAVEL WILL BE SLOW AT BEST ON WELL
TREATED SURFACES...AND QUITE DIFFICULT ON ANY UNPLOWED OR
UNTREATED SURFACES.


NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND A WIND
ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

Well, Flood, if everything works out according to the models you should be getting in on some wetter weather with those two storms for next week. Both appear to originate from full latitude trough and both bring a pretty good chunk of cold air down your direction.

I'm sure a percentage of this is just simply model over-amplification but I'm also sure that you should see some sort of weather other than dryness.
There's a pretty good temp gradient Sunday into Monday (from highs in the upper 70s to highs in the low 50s) and the locals are calling for a fairly substantial rain event; hopefully this is an indication of things to come. We just moved here in June of '07, so I don't know the weather norms very well for here...
Flood,
Your an example of the whole 48 states,the La Nina really has all of us on wild roller coaster ride.
LOL

Weather orm for Texas...except anything and everything...haha
Wie gehts, taistelutipu! It's very good to be seen...I'll be in and out over the course of the day, so hopefully I'll see you later on...enjoy your meeting (if such a thing is possible)!
Weather orm for Texas...except anything and everything...haha

I'm from Missouri, so "Don't like the weather? Stick around for an hour" is definitely in my vernacular...LOL
NEWx, you look to be getting the kind of weather I've been missing...send me some pics, huh?

Where's Bone these days?
Bonedog's job put some type of block on this site.

Jerks!!
See? That's why I always enjoyed the freedom of being part of the IT staff...no blocks, I have to test this stuff!
Flood,
We've had snow on the ground since 2nd week of Dec. with a few days of bare ground occasionally,northern new england a ton of snow,we've had snow then a rain storm then a snow storm around the boston area.Set all time precipitation records for February

Bone's company put restrictions on his web access for this site.
snowstorm tonight and tomorrow morning 4-8 inches,then a warmup next week with rain tuesday night and wednesday,this has been winter this year.
after this winter,this is one guy who will welcome discussions on the tropics again.
Good afternoon all! Benn quite some time since last I've been on here. I hope everyone has been doing well.

Just wanted to let you all know that I have update my site. I have begun entering information into my Weather 101 page with basic weather knowledge and answers to commonly asked questions that I receive.

Also, my first ever 2008 Hurricane Season predictions will be published sometime next week with a detailed explanation and current analysis of the Atlantic basin.

Still having trouble creating a graphic to use in my forecast discussion on my National Weather page, so I have not updated that yet.

Well, just wanted to let you all know that and to check up on you all. I'll be watching the computer models for where this low will travel and how far south it goes. That will be the determining factor for severe weather and how cold it gets for South and Central Florida.
Man, that's weather...I love places like San Diego to visit, but I like some wind in my face and some extremes as well; give me New England or the mid west.

That having been said, I'm sure you guys are pretty much done with winter by now; it grows a little tedious, huh?

In St Louis in '89 the average December temp was 19 degrees and the we got 29 inches of snow, followed by a January much the same with another 20 or so inches of snow; as much as I like winter, I was pretty much done with it by my birthday (February 3rd)...oddly enough, it snowed on my birthday that year as well...
Bone's company put restrictions on his web access for this site.

Maybe they classified it as weather porn ;)
Storm, I've been busier than a one armed paper hanger (to use a worn out cliche). I've been healthy, just not a lot of time and a lot of things to get done. How have you been?

Sorry about the tranny; what kind of vehicle we talking about?
I'm done with the snow when it stops snowing...lol

Meaning that I'll take the snow as it comes straight into April. But once we start getting a snowstorm with a couple of rainstorms in between during the end of March I get ready for spring and want to start putting my gardens in the ground. It's the back and forth that I can't stand. It's like make up your mind on which season you want it to be already...lol
All things must pass..winter included.
I'm with you, sullivan; unfortunately, we're going to see a lot more of the same (unpredictable weather) and it will only get worse...call it what you will, but there's some Climate Change in the air (now don't anyone go off half-cocked) and we won't see it normalize in our lifetimes, I'm afraid...if your area is known for roller coaster weather, get used to it
Maybe they classified it as weather porn ;)


Hmmm...there's a concept; maybe the proxy filters for words like raw weather, naked swirls, or maybe even stiff winds
Patrap, I forget: are you in New Orleans?
One last thing before I go to lunch...try this story on for size:

Conspiracy theory in the frozen North

Anybody around now or is everyone at lunch? I'm surfing the net and eating lunch at the same time right now.
I'm sort of checking in every now and again, cchs...how have you been?
Afternoon, everybody.

283. atmoaggie 12:10 PM EST on February 29, 2008
Bone's company put restrictions on his web access for this site.

Maybe they classified it as weather porn ;)


They prolly figured he was using too much bandwidth to DL all the pictures . . .. LOL