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Are atmospheric flow patterns favorable for summer extreme weather increasing?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:45 PM GMT on March 11, 2013

In 2010, Russia baked through its most intense heat wave in recorded history, one that killed over 55,000 people. At the same time, intense rains deluged Pakistan, bringing that nation its worst natural disaster in its history. The following year, it was the United States' turn for extreme heat, as the nation sweltered through its third hottest summer on record, and Oklahoma suffered the hottest month any U.S. state has ever recorded. The U.S. summer of 2012 was even more extreme. Only the Dust Bowl summer of 1936 was hotter, and drought conditions were the most extensive since the 1930s. All of these events--and many more unusually extreme summer months in recent decades--had a common feature, said scientists at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in Germany, in a research paper published in March 2013 in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. According to the authors, "each time one of these extremes struck, a strong wave train had developed in the atmosphere, circling the globe in mid-latitudes. These so-called planetary waves are well-known and a normal part of atmospheric flow. What is not normal is that the usually moving waves ground to a halt and were greatly amplified during the extreme events. Looking into the physics behind this, we found it is due to a resonance phenomenon. Under special conditions, the atmosphere can start to resonate like a bell. The wind patterns form a regular wave train, with six, seven or eight peaks and troughs going once around the globe". Using a complex theoretical mathematical description of the atmosphere and 32 years of historical weather data, the scientists showed that human-caused global warming might be responsible for this resonance phenomenon, which became twice as common during 2001 - 2012 compared to the previous 22 years.


Figure 1. Drought-damaged corn in a field near Nickerson, Nebraska, Aug. 16, 2012. The great U.S. drought of 2012 was the most extensive U.S. drought since the 1930s Dust Bowl. Damage from the 2012 drought is at least $35 billion, and probably much higher. The associated heat wave killed 123 people, and brought the U.S. its second hottest summer on record. (AP Photo/Nati Harnik)


Figure 2. Business was slow at the Lake Conroe, Texas jet ski rental in 2011, thanks to the great Texas drought and heat wave of 2011. Texas endured its driest 1-year period on record in 2011, and had the hottest summer ever recorded by a U.S. state. July 2011 in Oklahoma was the hottest month any U.S. state has ever recorded, and the contiguous U.S. had its third hottest summer on record. The total direct losses to crops, livestock and timber from the drought, heat wave, and record fires of the summer of 2011 are estimated at $12 billion, with a death toll of 95. Image credit: wunderphotographer BEENE.


Figure 3. Tourists wear protective face masks as they walk along the Red Square in Moscow, Russia on Aug. 6, 2010. Moscow was shrouded by a dense smog that grounded flights at international airports and seeped into homes and offices, due to wildfires worsened by the city's most intense heat wave in its history. The heat wave and fires during the summer of 2010 killed over 55,000 people in Russia and decimated the Russian wheat crop, causing global food prices to spike. (AP Photo/Mikhail Metzel)

Two fundamental atmospheric flow patterns may be resonating more often due to global warming
Earth's atmosphere has two fundamental patterns. One is a series of wave-like troughs and ridges in the jet stream called planetary (or Rossby) waves, which march west-to-east at about 15 - 25 mph around the globe. The other pattern behaves more like a standing wave, with no forward motion, and is created by the unequal heating of the equatorial regions compared to the poles, modulated by the position of the continents and oceans. A number of papers have been published showing that these two patterns can interact and resonate in a way that amplifies the standing wave pattern, causing the planetary waves to freeze in their tracks for weeks, resulting in an extended period of extreme heat or flooding, depending upon where the high-amplitude part of the wave lies. But what the Potsdam Institute scientists found is that because human-caused global warming is causing the Arctic to heat up more than twice as rapidly as the rest of the planet, the two patterns are interacting more frequently during the summer. During the most recent eleven years, 2002 - 2012, there were eight Julys and Augusts that showed this unusually extreme resonance pattern (this includes the U.S. heat wave of July - August 2012.) The two previous eleven year periods, 1991 - 2001 and 1980 - 1990, had just four extreme months apiece. Global warming could certainly cause this observed increase in the resonance phenomenon, but the researchers cautioned, "The suggested physical process increases the probability of weather extremes, but additional factors certainly play a role as well, including natural variability. Also, the 32-year period studied in the project provides a good indication of the mechanism involved, yet is too short for definitive conclusions. So there's no smoking gun on the table yet--but quite telling fingerprints all over the place."



Figure 4. The northward wind speed (negative values, blue on the map, indicate southward flow) at an altitude of 300 mb in the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere during July 2011 and July 1980. July of 2011 featured an unusually intense and long-lasting heat wave in the U.S., and the normally weak and irregular waves (like observed during the relatively normal July of 1980) were replaced by a strong and regular wave pattern. Image credit: Vladimir Petoukhov.

Commentary
The new Potsdam Institute paper gives us a mathematical description of exactly how global warming may be triggering observed fundamental changes in large-scale atmospheric flow patterns, resulting in the observed increase in unusually intense and long-lasting periods of extreme weather over the past eleven years. The paper also adds important theoretical support to the research published in 2012 by Dr. Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University, which found that the amplitude of Earth's planetary waves had increased by over 100 miles (161 km) in summer over the past decade in the Northern Hemisphere. Dr. Francis theorized that this change was connected to increased heating of the Arctic relative to the rest of the Earth, due to the observed decline in late spring Northern Hemisphere snow cover. Humans tend to think linearly--one plus one equals two. However, the atmosphere is fundamentally non-linear. What may seem to be modest changes in Earth's climate can trigger unexpected resonances that will amplify into extreme changes--cases where one plus one equals four, or eight, or sixteen. In some cases, when you rock the boat too far, it won't simply roll a bit more, it will reach a tipping point where it suddenly capsizes. Similarly, human-caused global warming is capable of pushing the climate past a tipping point where we enter a new climate regime, one far more disruptive than what we are used to.

Julys and Augusts since 1980 when quasiresonant extreme conditions were observed
The Potsdam Institute's research lists sixteen July and August periods since 1980 that have had extreme atmospheric flow patterns due to quasiresonance. These months featured severe regional heat waves and destructive floods in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, detailed below. Half of these months occurred in the most recent 11-year period, 2002 - 2012. During most of these extreme months, there was not a moderate or strong La Niña or El Niño event contributing to the extremes. Summers when a La Niña or El Niño event was present are listed in parentheses, based on the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI).

July and early August 2012: Catastrophic floods in China and Japan, as well as record-breaking temperatures during heat waves in the United States and southern Europe (weak summer El Niño)

July 2011: Record heat wave in the United States, resulting in the fourth warmest July on record nationally and the driest conditions in the southern United States ever (weak summer La Niña)

July/August 2010: Russian heat wave and the Pakistan flood, with the strongest and most persistent extreme weather conditions and the highest death tolls from heat waves and floods ever for these two regions (strong summer La Niña)

July 2006: Temperatures higher than 100°F for only the second time in Britain’s history and much of Europe experiencing a serious heat wave (weak summer El Niño)

August 2004: Much of northern Europe hit by very low winter-like temperatures and sporadic snowfalls (moderate to strong summer El Niño)

August 2003: European summer 2003 heat wave, causing a highly persistent drought in western Europe (weak summer El Niño)

August 2002: Catastrophic Elbe and Danube floods (strong summer El Niño)

July 2000: Destructive floods in northern Italy and the Tisza basin and a simultaneous heat wave in the southern United States, smashing all-time high-temperature records by that time at many sites (strong summer La Niña)

July/August 1997: Disastrous Great European Flood, which caused several deaths in central Europe, and the destroying floods in Pakistan and western United States (strong summer El Niño)

July 1994: Very strong heat wave in southern Europe, with a national temperature record of 47.2°C set in Spain (weak summer El Niño)

July 1993: Unprecedented great flood in the United States that reigned over the country from April (weak summer El Niño)

July 1989: Unusually intense and unprecedented widespread drought in the United States (weak summer La Niña)

August 1987: Severe drought in the southeastern United States (strong summer El Niño)

August 1984: Continuation of the severe heat of summer 1983, with serious drought in the United States (weak summer La Niña)

July and August 1983: Very dry conditions, severe heat, and substandard crop growth (5–35% below normal) in the Midwest United States (weak summer El Niño)

Links
Petoukhov, V., Rahmstorf, S., Petri, S., Schellnhuber, H. J. (2013), "Quasi-resonant amplification of planetary waves and recent Northern Hemisphere weather extremes" Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, (Early Edition) [doi:10.1073/pnas.1222000110]. No subscription required, but understanding this article requires a graduate-level understanding of the mathematical theory of atmospheric dynamics. Try reading instead this easy-to-read description of the paper by the authors, published at http://theconversation.edu.au.

Press release issued in March 2013 by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), "Weather extremes provoked by trapping of giant waves in the atmosphere."

In this 40-minute lecture presented in 2013 at the University of Arkansas, Dr. Jennifer Francis of Rutgers University explains the linkage between warming in the Arctic due to human-caused global warming and an observed shift in Northern Hemisphere jet stream patterns.

Linking Weird Weather to Rapid Warming of the Arctic, a March 2012 article by Dr. Jennifer Francis in the Yale Environment 360.

Francis, J.A., and S.J.Vavrus, 2012, "Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes", GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 39, L06801, doi:10.1029/2012GL051000, 2012

Jeff Masters

Climate Change Extreme Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Some good info here from the NWS Tampa's Facebook. Thought I'd share it.

Looking back at the 1993 Storm of the Century, computer models at that time had limited power compared to today's computing abilities. Here, we look at how today's high resolution local models would handle a similar storm to that of the 1993 storm.

463 LargoFl: How much change in the environment would it take for the human race to vanish?

A lot. We live where rats and cockroaches cannot, at biomass densities that rats and cockroaches cannot. Essentially they're domesticated species.
Remove our artificial environments and our exclusion of their natural predators, and their populations would be severely reduced in most places and extinct in the remainder.
503. wxmod
Quoting LargoFl:
well i cannot find any scientific site that gives an absolute possibility of human extinction other than the sun dying out...in every instance, no matter the disaster happening..some humans will surivive to rehabit the earth, but the sun dying out..is completely different..total cold, plant life and animal life total extinction...so for me..climate change doesnt worry me...the life of the sun..does..just one mans point of view from what ive read so far.


NASA MODIS satellite imagery tells it all. We are history. And with humanity, we are destroying every life form and system on the planet. Don't read about it. Look at the satellite images. The deterioration has been remarkable in the last twenty years, and there is absolutely no sign of it improving. This planet will look like Venus when we are done.
Not trying to start anything but... ITS A BEAUTIFUL DAY here in Middle Tennessee!
Here's a shot out my office window... it's still a little on the cool side at 45 degrees but the trees are starting to bud and I keep forgetting to pick up the flea and tick medicine for my yellow lab...
Happy Tuesday to all!



While this chart may be purely hypothetical, the events depicted are not! I have chosen to use the loss of arctic sea ice on the x-axis, because we know the stages of decline. We also know that Arctic Amplification is going to continue to play havoc with the climate, leading to severe droughts, extreme heatwaves and more violent storms. I've also included stages of Sea level rise (SLR) on the x-axis because the loss of the arctic sea ice will lead to accelerated melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS). What we don't know is when in the future these events will be occurring, although, the best minds on Neven's blog seem to believe that we will see an ice-free September as early as 2016. I arbitrarily placed a 1 meter SLR after a perennially ice free arctic, however comments/opinions on that are welcome.

The global impact of Climate Change is already taking a toll on infrastructure and society. This toll will only worsen unless CO2 emissions are drastically reduced or other mitigation efforts prove successful.

We Have Choices

While many of the events depicted on this chart are already unavoidable, humanity has within it's power to change the slope of the curves. While I'm not always as optimistic about a rapid transition to renewable energy as others are, I'm also not as doomerish as those who believe that we are unavoidably heading towards a mass extinction event.
The 700mb Geopotential Height anomalies from January-February of this year sure do look nice. It's a consecutive pattern of ridges and troughs, spaced out almost perfectly.

We don't usually see it this clear-cut.

510. txjac
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


This will be my only post on this and I will not respond to this. You desire to speak the truth, as we all do. One should know the truth in order to speak the truth. Truth is not based on emotions but on the hard, cold facts.

Business Insider

A History of Surpluses and Deficits in the United States

Office of Management and Budget

The Wall Street Journal

Truth is based upon the facts and not on anyone's emotions.


Link

Debunked as reported by Accuracy in Media.

I know that you said you wouldnt comment back and that is fine, just read this article. This is concerning the WSJ article you linked
I do think we all can agree that a lifestyle change IS coming for humans, it may take 200-300 years from now but a drastic change in the way we live IS coming..what we take for granted today may be a luxury item in the future..maybe even not to be had..clean water, food,an energy source for ALL people etc...for me im glad i wont be around because i like what we have now..the future doesnt look as bright anymore,not as it did in the past..something has changed.
512. txjac
Quoting LargoFl:
I do think we all can agree that a lifestyle change IS coming for humans, it may take 200-300 years from now but a drastic change in the way we live IS coming..what we take for granted today may be a luxury item in the future..maybe even not to be had..clean water, food,an energy source for ALL people etc...for me im glad i wont be around because i like what we have now..the future doesnt look as bright anymore,not as it did in the past..something has changed.


Wish I could plus more than once ..that's how I see it too. And actually it's already changed a bit too much for my taste ...
Quoting LargoFl:
I do think we all can agree that a lifestyle change IS coming for humans, it may take 200-300 years from now but a drastic change in the way we live IS coming..what we take for granted today may be a luxury item in the future..maybe even not to be had..clean water, food,an energy source for ALL people etc...for me im glad i wont be around because i like what we have now..the future doesnt look as bright anymore,not as it did in the past..something has changed.
things are to happen much sooner and faster then predicted it already is


faster and faster we go
Somewhat revelant..it involves sinkholes..


Man falls into 18-foot sinkhole while playing golf
By Kyle Porter | Blogger
March 12, 2013 11:38 am ET


More Golf: Leaderboard | Rankings | Schedule | Expert Picks | Equipment | FedEx Cup

Well if this isn't the most terrifying thing I've ever heard about happening on a golf course, I don't know what is.

St. Louis golfer Mark Mihal fell 18 feet down a sinkhole in the middle of the fairway last weekend during a round of golf in Waterloo, Ill.

Here's Mark with his first-person account:

I felt the ground start to collapse and it happened so fast that I couldn't do anything. I reached for the ground as I was going down and it gave way, too. It seemed like I was falling for a long time. The real scary part was I didn't know when I would hit bottom and what I would land on.

Oh, boy.

You should read the entire story about how one of his friends went in after him, made a makeshift sling with his sweatshirt, and helped hoist him onto a too-short-for-the-hole ladder.

Between this and the Florida bedroom sinkhole incident I suddenly feel like I need to take a long cross-continent flight somewhere.

h/t Devil Ball Golf

For more golf news, rumors and analysis, follow @EyeOnGolf and @KylePorterCBS on Twitter and like us on Facebook.
515. txjac
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
things are to happen much sooner and faster then predicted it already is


faster and faster we go



I better get back to work ...you guys are bumming me out with all of this reality! lol ...actually I'm being a bad girl anyway ...should really be working

Be back later
Quoting LargoFl:
I do think we all can agree that a lifestyle change IS coming for humans, it may take 200-300 years from now but a drastic change in the way we live IS coming..what we take for granted today may be a luxury item in the future..maybe even not to be had..clean water, food,an energy source for ALL people etc...for me im glad i wont be around because i like what we have now..the future doesnt look as bright anymore,not as it did in the past..something has changed.


S'okay. I got my motorbike and gallons of gas safely hidden. And I've watched Mad Max about six times. I'm ready.

Can you buy autogyros on ebay?
the heaviest rain bands so far


raining a little heavy here... IDK why twc calls for 2-3" around my area, NYC NWS calls for just over 1"
518. wxmod
Quoting LargoFl:
I do think we all can agree that a lifestyle change IS coming for humans, it may take 200-300 years from now but a drastic change in the way we live IS coming..what we take for granted today may be a luxury item in the future..maybe even not to be had..clean water, food,an energy source for ALL people etc...for me im glad i wont be around because i like what we have now..the future doesnt look as bright anymore,not as it did in the past..something has changed.

It doesn't look bright. That's too bad.
You didn't mention Oxygen. That's becoming short in supply. The systems that exhale Oxygen are dying.
Wow, snowing and heavy winds just started again. I guess the amounts of snow accumulating this day may set a new record compared to many, many years back, at least in my region.



News Summary: Snow ties up Europe transportation

By The Associated Press

SNOW, MAN: Frankfurt's airport closed, trains stopped running under the English Channel, and the French army was ordered to help clear roads because of an unusually late snowfall on Western Europe.

BIG CHILL: Frankfurt airport, Europe's third busiest, closed at midday after recording about five inches of snow. More than 355 flights were cancelled by mid-afternoon. North of Frankfurt, the autobahn closed after more than 100 cars and trucks crashed in a pileup and dozens were injured.

ON ICE: In southeastern England, snow and ice stranded hundreds of motorists, and many abandoned their cars.

Copyright %uFFFD 2013 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

Quoting txjac:



I better get back to work ...you guys are bumming me out with all of this reality! lol ...actually I'm being a bad girl anyway ...should really be working

Be back later


sorry don't mean to bum anyone out

there is hope
maybe this season it won't be as extreme
maybe ice won't melt as much over the arctic
maybe greenland will slow in its ice melt and movement
we don't know we have to get there first but come late july and august we will know if its still occurring and if its faster then the season before

we always hope its less but it will likly be more we have to wait and see
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Truth is every working class citizen has tightened their belts but Congress has not as the spending is out of control. As a result everybody is seeing higher taxes this year not just the rich. We are cutting teachers, firefighters, police officers, funding for NWS offices, need I go on. Also too many Americans are expecting handouts from the government that is why Obama got re elected. Truth spoken!

12Z GFS



To add to that, all these people that work for the Fed government, like myself, are in no way rich!!! I am getting furloughed starting april for 1 day per week. Thats 4 days per month i dont get paid for. All this with three kids under the age of 4

I have the urge to be like those other 47% and live off of Uncle Obama

522. wxmod
Quoting JNCali:
Not trying to start anything but... ITS A BEAUTIFUL DAY here in Middle Tennessee!
Here's a shot out my office window... it's still a little on the cool side at 45 degrees but the trees are starting to bud and I keep forgetting to pick up the flea and tick medicine for my yellow lab...
Happy Tuesday to all!



Thanks for the pretty picture of the nice blue sky. The gases in that sky are changing.
@ Barbamz

Hallo..
I hope you are safe from any risk out of this...
I think this blog is suffering from "resonance phenomenon"!
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
@ Barbamz

Hallo..
I hope you are safe from any risk out of this...


Thanks Max. I myself am safe, fortunately, because I live and work in the old city. I even don't own a car for the last years, lol, because I rarely need one. But outside the city on our roads and highways is a real mess today. Huge traffic jams.
The better side: No noise of airplanes today, because the airport is closed. Really nice and calm atmosphere.
BBL, I have to free my terrasse-balcony from snow for the third time this day. Don't want it to crash ;-)
Summit Webcam March 12, 2013 - 14:08 WGT
Green House / Fuel Pit


Quoting txjac:


Link

Debunked as reported by Accuracy in Media.

I know that you said you wouldnt comment back and that is fine, just read this article. This is concerning the WSJ article you linked


Don Irvine
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The 700mb Geopotential Height anomalies from January-February of this year sure do look nice. It's a consecutive pattern of ridges and troughs, spaced out almost perfectly.

We don't usually see it this clear-cut.

I wonder what effect this will have on the pattern for hurricane season.Maybe a equal chance of misses and hits.
503 wxmod: This planet will look like Venus when we are done.

Not Venus... but it's possible to get quite a bit closer to a Venusian-style greenhouse-runaway than anyone would have thought even a year ago
Traditionally, Earth had been placed in the middle of the HabitableZone around the Sun, with Venus being a little too close to the Sun to provide a long-term habitable atmosphere (ie one that can hold liquid water on the surface for over a billion years).
The most recent planetary atmospheric models show that Venus is by far too close to the Sun to have ever supported conditions that are favorable to the development of life, with the Earth being very close to the inner edge of habitability.
It was pouring cats and dogs outside.My socks were wet my pants were soaking wet and well...just about everything.Well the sun is out now and the skies are clear.Its just really windy outside.
Japan extracts natural gas from methane hydrates

First time it's been done, although several countries are involved in research. Experts estimate there's twice as much carbon in undersea methane hydrates than in all other fossil fuels put together. Substantial deposits exist off the Carolinas.
Quoting LargoFl:
I do think we all can agree that a lifestyle change IS coming for humans, it may take 200-300 years from now but a drastic change in the way we live IS coming..what we take for granted today may be a luxury item in the future..maybe even not to be had..clean water, food,an energy source for ALL people etc...for me im glad i wont be around because i like what we have now..the future doesnt look as bright anymore,not as it did in the past..something has changed.


Should you wish to see more evidence as to how long we can maintain our present lifestyle you only need to do some research on how long many of our resources are predicted to last.

Elements, being elements, are non renewable resources. See what the projected reserves are for:

Gold
Silver
Copper
Lead
Aluminum
Lithium
Nickel
Cadmium

These are all basic elements that we use for generating electricity and for storing electricity.

Now factor in the estimated reserves and how long these are projected to last:

Oil
Coal
Natural gas

Now factor in the fact that as each of these resources become more rare they will also become more cost prohibitive to use.

I suspect that those that are alive today are the few that would have known such creature comforts and idle time as we do now.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Should you wish to see more evidence as to how long we can maintain our present lifestyle you only need to do some research on how long many of our resources are predicted to last.

Elements, being elements, are non renewable resources. See what the projected reserves are for:

Gold
Silver
Copper
Lead
Aluminum
Lithium
Nickel
Cadmium

These are all basic elements that we use for generating electricity and for storing electricity.

Now factor in the estimated reserves and how long these are projected to last:

Oil
Coal
Natural gas

Now factor in the fact that as each of these resources become more rare they will also become more cost prohibitive to use.

I suspect that those that are alive today are the few that would have known such creature comforts and idle time as we do now.
add to that Phosphorus used in Ag..


Riverside, California (Airport)
Updated: 9:53 AM PDT on March 12, 2013
Clear
65 °F
Clear
Humidity: 45%
Dew Point: 43 °F
Wind: Calm
Pressure: 30.04 in (Steady)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 4 out of 16
Pollen: 8.40 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 817 ft

65.9 here ... was 78.1 yesterday off an 81 forecast
531 washingtonian115: It was pouring cats and dogs outside. My socks were wet, my pants were soaking wet, and well...just about everything. Well the sun is out now and the skies are clear. It's just really windy outside.

That's why ya wear shorts and a raincoat. Wearing wet pants in the rain doesn't keep you any warmer than having bare legs. And bare legs dry off extremely quickly.
The GFS has developed a very high latitude Rex Block over Canada in the longer range the past few runs.



If it verified, this would result in a displaced arctic airmass over southern Canada and the northern US.



However, the ECMWF shows a very different solution; one sans blocking.



With these large differences, longer range forecasts will be a bit lower than usual. All of the above images are from 00Z runs. Maybe the 12Z runs will be a little closer together?
Just found this online (sorry if this is old news)

Link


SSMI/SSMIS/TMI-derived Total Precipitable Water - North Atlantic
540. VR46L
Quoting JNCali:
Just found this online (sorry if this is old news)

Link




That is all Europe needs ...Kinda taking a beating today (except where I am ....Just Cold here

Still a lot of variables to iron out before we can make an accurate prediction about this coming hurricane season, but it looks like SSTs are well on their way to being very favorable. SSTs in the MDR are well above this time last year, aided by the persistent -NAO pattern we've had the past month. Could be an earlier than normal start to the CV season if this pattern persists.

March 11, 2013:



March 11, 2012:





Cazzete - Beam Me Up (Kill Mode)
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
I like that one!


Why? There isn't any snow!!
Quoting WunderGirl12:


Why? There isn't any snow!!

the map style...
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:

the map style...


Ahh!! :-D Can you check my blog out?
Quoting WunderGirl12:
LOL I thought it was a seismograph!
Quoting JNCali:
LOL I thought it was a seismograph!


NAh, It's a song. LOL. I'll modify the comment!!
Quoting JNCali:
LOL I thought it was a seismograph!


yep lol...that's how music really is like...
Quoting JNCali:
LOL I thought it was a seismograph!


Techno Seismograph!!!!
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


yep lol...that's how music really is like...
As my mother would say.. "Oh my!"
Quoting VR46L:


That is all Europe needs ...Kinda taking a beating today (except where I am ....Just Cold here



Quoting JNCali:
As my mother would say.. "Oh my!"


yep, bunch of lines that make no sense...
Was going through back pages to see if anyone mentioned the IL golfcourse sinkhole and of course, run into it on final page. There is an article on it in stltoday.com, the Post-Dispatch's website, and I believe it links to the gentleman's own website. He's a very lucky guy!

42 and sunny in S C IL, 30" w/ 10 to 20 mph WSW winds. Only 13 minutes away from 12 hrs of sunshine!:)
For those that missed it last night, here is my preliminary "forecast" (though it looks like I made it more into an informative blog on ENSO, lol) for the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season.

2013 Atlantic hurricane season preliminary forecast
Quoting PedleyCA:


Techno Seismograph!!!!


Yes sir!! :P
Flooding threat in Northern New England as well


I'll be updating my map shortly
Quoting MississippiWx:
Still a lot of variables to iron out before we can make an accurate prediction about this coming hurricane season, but it looks like SSTs are well on their way to being very favorable. SSTs in the MDR are well above this time last year, aided by the persistent -NAO pattern we've had the past month. Could be an earlier than normal start to the CV season if this pattern persists.

March 11, 2013:



March 11, 2012:




compare sst 13/12

nino nina regions compare 13/12

warming neutral



A little contribution to AGW unfortunately came from my church this evening, lol: black smoke emitted from the Sistina in the Vatican, and really lots of it, just to make the statement clear.
looks a little warm ped

565. VR46L
Quoting barbamz:

A little contribution to AGW unfortunately came from my church this evening, lol: black smoke emitted from the Sistina in the Vatican, and really lots of it, just to make the statement clear.


Yep Heard they couldn't decide .. I dare say it will happen a few times ...as there is no clear candidate
only a few days then you cool slowly after sunday

Quoting VR46L:


Yep Heard they couldn't decide .. I dare say it will happen a few times ...as there is no clear candidate


I agree.
Good entry by Dr. Masters. Look, a real scientific paper, no hand-waving, actual mathematics. The abstract had me salivating with the mention of "midlatitude waveguides" so I just had to peek. If my head wasn't hurting from calibrating my new water quality meter I would dig right in. Hope this topic lasts today ...fascinating stuff.
Heavy rain continues for us, some snow for Buffalo...
new ecmwf/gfs stay way north w trough in 1 week....no severe wx


Is happening really slowly and has so far under performed the projections.
85 for today and it may not make it if yesterdays number was just under by
a degree in Riverside and 3 degrees here. We will see. I like it on the cooler side but this isn't bad. Humidity is decent at 34% and should fall some.....
572. VR46L
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
.


Nice graphics !!!
Quoting VR46L:


Nice graphics !!!


thanks, that's one of my new ones...
574. VR46L
Quoting PedleyCA:


Is happening really slowly and has so far under performed the projections.
85 for today and it may not make it if yesterdays number was just under by
a degree in Riverside and 3 degrees here. We will see. I like it on the cooler side but this isn't bad. Humidity is decent at 34% and should fall some.....


That is hot hot hot ...and its only March !!
Rancho Palos Verdes

Small earth quake off shore at Rancho Palos Verdes, Calif

Only 10 Earthquakes over 2.5 in this area in the last 7 days.
WU still isn't showing yesterdays shocks over 2.5. May well be
out of the range they consider local....

576. VR46L
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


thanks, that's one of my new ones...


Good For you ! They look real professional compared to tracks imposed on NWS OR NHC map . Nice !! Do you have ones for the cane season too?
Quoting VR46L:


That is hot hot hot ...and its only March !!



I know and my water cooler needs parts before I can use it again.
On the topic of Dr. Masters' blog (flow patterns favoring extreme weather), models show a massive ridge amplifying across Greenland and into the Arctic over the weekend. Consequently, the AO tanks and a massive swath of 40-50 degree temperature anomalies (nearly 4.5 standard deviations) invades Greenland and the northern Canadian Maritimes region. Ice will be melting fast this spring.


ECMWF 850mb temperature anomaly
(Max Anomaly: 29.3 C or 52.7 F)




GFS 2m Temperature Anomaly
(Max Anomaly: 54.7 F)




GFS 2m Temperature Normalized Anomaly





Arctic Oscillation Crash


Quoting VR46L:


Good For you ! They look real professional compared to tracks imposed on NWS OR NHC map . Nice !! Do you have ones for the cane season too?


yes I do...I made a blog about it long ago.

I have some others that are not in there btw... only when the time comes, also for tornadoes
581. VR46L
Quoting PedleyCA:



I know and my water cooler needs parts before I can use it again.


You are gonna need Ice ,Ice .... Dont dig that song out ... Its bad !!IMO Only thing good about it is that it nicked the sample from Queen & Bowie - 'Under Pressure'
Here in Puerto Rico we are also in a dry period as the rainfall so far in 2013 is over 2 inches below normal. And it looks like the dry weather will continue for the next few days.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
318 PM AST TUE MAR 12 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH THU THEN FLATTEN
OVER THE WEEKEND AS POLAR TROUGH ACROSS ERN NOAM MOVES INTO THE ATLC.
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THEN DEAMPLIFIES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ZONAL
FLOW EXPECTED TO DOMINATE.


&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK UNDER A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. CONDITIONS BECOME
MORE UNSTABLE EARLY NEXT WEEK POLAR TROUGH ERODES THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HOWEVER MOISTURE RETURN
IS NOT SUFFICIENT FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLD SHOWERS. WINDS
ALSO STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DECENT HIGH PRES BUILDS NORTH
OF THE AREA AND TIGHTENS THE PRES GRADIENT. OVERALL...DRY
CONDITIONS WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR THE
NEXT 30 HOURS. AT THE SFC...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15
KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...DECREASING AFTER
13/03Z.


&&

.MARINE...NNE SWELLS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS. OVER THE WEEKEND A NEW GROUP OF NORTH SWELLS WILL BEGIN TO
ARRIVE INTO THE ATLC COASTAL WATERS. OVERALL...HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE FIVE-DAY FCST PERIOD.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...COMBINATION OF EXTREMELY DRY FUELS AND VERY LOW
HUMIDITIES WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER VERY HIGH OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. OVER
THE WEEKEND...CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSTABLE AS POLAR TROUGH
WEAKENS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND TEMPERATURES WARM UP
GRADUALLY. MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS PRETTY WEAK AND NOT LIKELY TO
SUPPORT ANY PRECIP EXCEPT FOR MORE CLOUDS OVER MOUNTAIN AREAS.
WINDS ALSO STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS NEW AREA OF HIGH PRES
BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA. ALL WEATHER FACTORS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE OF SIGNIFICANT FIRE ACTIVITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 82 74 80 / 0 0 0 0
STT 74 83 74 83 / 0 0 0 0
Quoting VR46L:


You are gonna need Ice ,Ice .... Dont dig that song out ... Its bad !!IMO Only thing good about it is that it nicked the sample from Queen & Bowie - 'Under Pressure'


Good video that one. Yes leaving Ice, Ice Baby where it was..... lol
Quoting LargoFl:
I do think we all can agree that a lifestyle change IS coming for humans, it may take 200-300 years from now but a drastic change in the way we live IS coming..what we take for granted today may be a luxury item in the future..maybe even not to be had..clean water, food,an energy source for ALL people etc...for me im glad i wont be around because i like what we have now..the future doesnt look as bright anymore,not as it did in the past..something has changed.
I agree with most of this--though your timeline is likely off by a full order of magnitude; the drastic changes of which you speak are much closer to 20-30 years away, according to experts. And I don't how old you are, but I myself plan to still be here in that timeframe--and I'm pretty certain my kids will be...
585. VR46L
Quoting PedleyCA:


Good video that one. Yes leaving Ice, Ice Baby where it was..... lol


I like alot of Bowies stuff actually prefer him to Queen ! Vanilla Ice ...Not to my taste
still raining...look at the snow at the upper left
IN CASE YOU ARE SITTING THERE BORED, OR JUST JOINED IN...CHECK OUT MY BLOG REGARDING THE 2013 HURRICANE SEASON..IF YOU HAVEN'T DONE SO

2013 HURRICANE SEASON OUTLOOK

don't hesitate to leave a comment or thumbs up.
Quoting PedleyCA:


Good video that one. Yes leaving Ice, Ice Baby where it was..... lol

You're cold as ice
You're willing to sacrifice our love
As we monitor pre-hurricane season signals, an important global link is the difference between Atlantic MDR SST anomalies and the rest of the global tropics. This is important because if the rest of the global tropics are cooler relative to normal than the tropical Atlantic (i.e. the difference is positive), then upward motion tends to focus in the Atlantic more than anywhere else in the globe (since it is the warmest relative to normal), which promotes more tropical activity.

I only have 6 days of data on here right now (will eventually accumulate to 90 days), but this graph will track the difference with daily values. Right now it is +0.309°C

Quoting Neapolitan:
I agree with most of this--though your timeline is likely off by a full order of magnitude; the drastic changes of which you speak are much closer to 20-30 years away, according to experts. And I don't how old you are, but I myself plan to still be here in that timeframe--and I'm pretty certain my kids will be...


In the videos KEEPER posted, (I watched them all), it said possibly 2-10 degrees by the end of the century (2100), so grand-kids?

Change will not be fun, it never is.

Personally, I'd like to see a ban on all disposable containers and utensils. THAT would get everyone's attention! I cringe at how much ash is spewed into the atmosphere by cargo ships hauling things we just throw away! (Well in 1st world countries that is!).
Big polluters: one massive container ship equals 50 million cars
Quoting Levi32:
As we monitor pre-hurricane season signals, an important global link is the difference between Atlantic MDR SST anomalies and the rest of the global tropics. This is important because if the rest of the global tropics are cooler relative to normal than the tropical Atlantic (i.e. the difference is positive), then upward motion tends to focus in the Atlantic more than anywhere else in the globe (since it is the warmest relative to normal), which promotes more tropical activity.

I only have 6 days of data on here right now (will eventually accumulate to 90 days), but this graph will track the difference with daily values. Right now it is 0.309�C

Levi you need to make another video with all this info you throw out on your twitter and here!
Quoting Gearsts:
Levi you need to make another video with all this info you throw out on your twitter and here!


I plan on posting on the hurricane season this week, since it is spring break for me.
Quoting Levi32:
As we monitor pre-hurricane season signals, an important global link is the difference between Atlantic MDR SST anomalies and the rest of the global tropics. This is important because if the rest of the global tropics are cooler relative to normal than the tropical Atlantic (i.e. the difference is positive), then upward motion tends to focus in the Atlantic more than anywhere else in the globe (since it is the warmest relative to normal), which promotes more tropical activity.

I only have 6 days of data on here right now (will eventually accumulate to 90 days), but this graph will track the difference with daily values. Right now it is 0.309C



Hi Levi. This means the Tropical Atlantic is warmer than normal right and a horseshoe pattern is developng?
Perspective

Quoting Levi32:
As we monitor pre-hurricane season signals, an important global link is the difference between Atlantic MDR SST anomalies and the rest of the global tropics. This is important because if the rest of the global tropics are cooler relative to normal than the tropical Atlantic (i.e. the difference is positive), then upward motion tends to focus in the Atlantic more than anywhere else in the globe (since it is the warmest relative to normal), which promotes more tropical activity.

I only have 6 days of data on here right now (will eventually accumulate to 90 days), but this graph will track the difference with daily values. Right now it is +0.309°C


Would it be wrong to say that vertical instability would be back to normal levels this year (compared to 2011 and 2012) because the upward motion would focus the MJO across the Atlantic and therefore make the basin wetter relative to average?

I'm running out of ideas of why it has been low the past few years.
Quoting DFWdad:


In the videos KEEPER posted, (I watched them all), it said possibly 2-10 degrees by the end of the century (2100), so grand-kids?

Change will not be fun, it never is.

Personally, I'd like to see a ban on all disposable containers and utensils. THAT would get everyone's attention! I cringe at how much ash is spewed into the atmosphere by cargo ships hauling things we just throw away! (Well in 1st world countries that is!).
Big polluters: one massive container ship equals 50 million cars

Here's a Fun One! Report about our GOV's emissions in 2010

"Fed Carbon Footprint: 121.3 Million Metric Tons; Lion’s Share is DOD"

Report from Environmental Leader.com Link
A comment posted on the bunker fuel article:

"Every day we are fooled into thinking that climate change is a problem caused by individuals and solvable by individuals is another day we fail to move towards large-scale, coordinated, societal action."

Keep that in mind the next time someone trolls you with questions about your carbon footprint. Kale with a low carbon footprint anyone?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Would it be wrong to say that vertical instability would be back to normal levels this year (compared to 2011 and 2012) because the upward motion would focus the MJO across the Atlantic and therefore make the basin wetter relative to average?

I'm running out of ideas of why it has been low the past few years.


It's been low because of the US drought.
600. ARiot
Quoting bappit:
A comment posted on the bunker fuel article:

"Every day we are fooled into thinking that climate change is a problem caused by individuals and solvable by individuals is another day we fail to move towards large-scale, coordinated, societal action."

Keep that in mind the next time someone trolls you with questions about your carbon footprint. Kale with a low carbon footprint anyone?


Those are good points.

Collective action, similar to the Allied effort in WWII would be required.

However, since that period, we have relied on individuals and small groups of people with heft funding to "advance us." Think of it. NASA is small. The military is small. The group who invented the internet, the web and similar technologies is small. Heck even factories and farms involve ever smaller groups of people.

Combine that with 30-40 years of the political drumbeat centered around "the individual" and similar short-term memes.

Shoot man, saying something like "collective action" gets you labeled as some sort of commie.

Crazy times.
Quoting TomTaylor:
On the topic of Dr. Masters' blog (flow patterns favoring extreme weather), models show a massive ridge amplifying across Greenland and into the Arctic over the weekend. Consequently, the AO tanks and a massive swath of 40-50 degree temperature anomalies (nearly 4.5 standard deviations) invades Greenland and the northern Canadian Maritimes region. Ice will be melting fast this spring.


ECMWF 850mb temperature anomaly
(Max Anomaly: 29.3 C or 52.7 F)




GFS 2m Temperature Anomaly
(Max Anomaly: 54.7 F)




GFS 2m Temperature Normalized Anomaly





Arctic Oscillation Crash



I had alluded to the upside down pattern in an earlier post, but that was referencing the displaced arctic airmass dropping south. As you bring up though, a displaced airmass has to be replaced by something, and that something is bad news for the arctic. The GFS has been showing more of a bread-and-butter Rex Block while the Euro has some differences, but the end result ends up being more or less the same for the higher latitudes: an ice-melting warm air intrusion.



12Z GFS 5-10 day 500 mb height anomalies



12Z ECMWF 5-10 day 500 mb height anomalies

The ECMWF's trend towards the GFS's solution from 00Z to 12Z also significantly increases forecast confidence of such a warm air intrusion to the high latitudes.
Quoting yonzabam:


It's been low because of the US drought.

Yes, for the Gulf of Mexico. But that doesn't explain why it has been so low across the Caribbean and rest of the Atlantic.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yes, for the Gulf of Mexico. But that doesn't explain why it has been so low across the Caribbean and rest of the Atlantic.


Well, rising air over the US means sinking air elsewhere. Sinking air = low vertical instability.

I don't know how far east this effect would extend, but tropical storms in the east to mid Atlantic have developed 'normally' the past two years, but failed to ramp up in the western section.
Quoting yonzabam:


Well, rising air over the US means sinking air elsewhere. Sinking air = low vertical instability.

I don't know how far east this effect would extend, but tropical storms in the east to mid Atlantic have developed 'normally' the past two years, but failed to ramp up in the western section.

Drought wouldn't favor rising air over the USA though, it would favor subsidence and sinking air.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Hi Levi. This means the Tropical Atlantic is warmer than normal right and a horseshoe pattern is developng?


Well just because the SST anomaly difference between the tropical Atlantic and the rest of the tropics is positive doesn't necessarily mean that the tropical Atlantic is warmer than normal. It could be colder than normal, but if the rest of the tropics were even more colder than normal, the difference would still be positive.

But in this case, yes, the positive AMO Atlantic tripole is evident.

well this latest cold front gave us some real nice soaking in kind of rain which we needed, cooled us off some too, but feels nice outside huh
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Drought wouldn't favor rising air over the USA though, it would favor subsidence and sinking air.


Really? There must be a gap in my education. I thought hot air rose.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Would it be wrong to say that vertical instability would be back to normal levels this year (compared to 2011 and 2012) because the upward motion would focus the MJO across the Atlantic and therefore make the basin wetter relative to average?

I'm running out of ideas of why it has been low the past few years.


Maybe, but remember 2010 had an even higher SST anomaly in the MDR both pre-season and during the season than we are likely to see this year, yet vertical instability was below normal over much of the tropical Atlantic during the height of the hurricane season, despite the high ACE year we had.

I was talking to Tom earlier about this. I'm not entirely sure what has been causing low vertical instability since 2010. It could be that despite favorable SSTs, African dust has been at a higher concentration than normal, thus drying out the mid-troposphere and increasing stability. However, I don't know of a dataset that quantifies this, so I don't know how SAL in recent years compares with history.
Quoting 1900hurricane:

I had alluded to the upside down pattern in an earlier post, but that was referencing the displaced arctic airmass dropping south. As you bring up though, a displaced airmass has to be replaced by something, and that something is bad news for the arctic. The GFS has been showing more of a bread-and-butter Rex Block while the Euro has some differences, but the end result ends up being more or less the same for the higher latitudes: an ice-melting warm air intrusion.



12Z GFS 5-10 day 500 mb height anomalies



12Z ECMWF 5-10 day 500 mb height anomalies

The ECMWF's trend towards the GFS's solution from 00Z to 12Z also significantly increases forecast confidence of such a warm air intrusion to the high latitudes.


The Canadian ensembles agree as well.

Day 5-10 2m Temperature Anomaly:



Day 5-10 500mb Height Anomaly:

DC might get a wintery mix thurs/friday...........
nope the winter stuff stays north of DC once again...
Quoting yonzabam:


Really? There must be a gap in my education. I thought hot air rose.


Hot air rises, but DRY air sinks. The molar mass of water (18 g/mol) is lower than that of an average molecule of dry air (diatomic nitrogen and oxygen considered, 29 g/mol). A similar contradiction by different processes happens in oceanic circulation patterns - warm oceans upwell, but oceans that experience high evaporation allow denser, saltier water to appear at the surface, causing downwelling.
Just like I expected is windy out here...
Levi, you would think that negative NAO that has dominated for the past couple of months would tend to diminuish the sal impulses but there have been some big outbreaks this year.

Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Hot air rises, but DRY air sinks. The molar mass of water (18 g/mol) is lower than that of an average molecule of dry air (nitrogen and oxygen considered, 29 g/mol). A similar contradiction happens in oceanic circulation patterns.


But, if the whole column of air is dry, doesn't that mean rising air?

It seemes to me that, in your explanation, the sinking air has to be drier than the air below it.
Well it sure got hot today....71F. Good thing is, as the temperature rose the Dewpoint went down so it wasnt too bad. Breeze felt good though.
Quoting Levi32:


Maybe, but remember 2010 had an even higher SST anomaly in the MDR both pre-season and during the season than we are likely to see this year, yet vertical instability was below normal over much of the tropical Atlantic during the height of the hurricane season, despite the high ACE year we had.

I was talking to Tom earlier about this. I'm not entirely sure what has been causing low vertical instability since 2010. It could be that despite favorable SSTs, African dust has been at a higher concentration than normal, thus drying out the mid-troposphere and increasing stability. However, I don't know of a dataset that quantifies this, so I don't know how SAL in recent years compares with history.


Levi, I came across this while searching for any historical data on the SAL. While this study does not concern the historical data on the SAL it may provide you with new information as to future weather patterns related to the SAL? See if this offers any useful information for you. Transport of desert dust mixed with North African industrial pollutants in the subtropical Saharan Air Layer

Unfortunately, I could not find any historical data sets for the SAL.
619. VR46L
Quoting bappit:
A comment posted on the bunker fuel article:

"Every day we are fooled into thinking that climate change is a problem caused by individuals and solvable by individuals is another day we fail to move towards large-scale, coordinated, societal action."

Keep that in mind the next time someone trolls you with questions about your carbon footprint. Kale with a low carbon footprint anyone?


I fail to see how a question about carbon footprint is trolling .

IF you are big into believing that man is 100% cause . then you should set an example to people who dont completely buy into it !

Also every little helps if you cut down your emission ..

Also its good for the environment even if you do not believe its 100% mans fault .
Quoting Levi32:
As we monitor pre-hurricane season signals, an important global link is the difference between Atlantic MDR SST anomalies and the rest of the global tropics. This is important because if the rest of the global tropics are cooler relative to normal than the tropical Atlantic (i.e. the difference is positive), then upward motion tends to focus in the Atlantic more than anywhere else in the globe (since it is the warmest relative to normal), which promotes more tropical activity.

I only have 6 days of data on here right now (will eventually accumulate to 90 days), but this graph will track the difference with daily values. Right now it is 0.309C

How does this match up to other years?

Positive anomaly relative to other basins is nice but it doesn't really us anything if it isn't put in context.
SURVEY

I have been thinking on trying to come up with a list of all the possible outcomes for the Atlantic tropical activity.

The only way I am able to do it is by having anyone who would like to participate to shout out their forecast. I have a list where Im putting it all together in alphabetical order, in that way we all can compare our forecasts with each other...

So what I would like to know is if any is willing to give their own forecast of the possible named storm, hurricanes and major hurricanes we could see this year in the Atlantic basin.

I'll add all the ones I get or remove the ones you ask me to. So far I have some, a broader list would be great...

Again I'll remove anyone who doesn't want to be on it or add in.

I have some thus far... who else wants to participate?
If you want to go to my blog to tell me as for more privacy it's fine with me...



I'll keep updating it as soon as I can
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Levi, you would think that negative NAO that has dominated for the past couple of months would tend to diminuish the sal impulses but there have been some big outbreaks this year.



Well the Atlantic is supposed to be dry this time of year. The moisture content of that air isn't terribly far below normal.

Quoting Levi32:


Well just because the SST anomaly difference between the tropical Atlantic and the rest of the tropics is positive doesn't necessarily mean that the tropical Atlantic is warmer than normal. It could be colder than normal, but if the rest of the tropics were even more colder than normal, the difference would still be positive.

But in this case, yes, the positive AMO Atlantic tripole is evident.



ilke this one myself

we can see sst above normal esp. so near grenland and s of baffin island between lab/greenland some are 2.59 degrees above normal near greenland

Quoting VR46L:


I fail to see how a question about carbon footprint is trolling .

IF you are big into believing that man is 100% cause . then you should set an example to people who dont completely buy into it !

Also every little helps if you cut down your emission ..

Also its good for the environment even if you do not believe its 100% mans fault .


I believe that what bappit is saying that no one individual's efforts will help to mitigate the CO2 on a global scale. When someone asks, "Well, what are you doing to mitigate the CO2?" is trolling. (Look up the definition of "blog troll")

"IF you are big into believing that man is 100% cause . then you should set an example to people who dont completely buy into it !" - This is another trollish comment. Setting examples for safe flying, swimming or driving habits are not based upon if you believe in them or not. You may not believe in them but when you do not practice them you are putting everyone within your reach at risk. When you do this on a global scale you are putting everyone on the globe at risk. .. Have you never reasoned through the thought that one should always err on the side of caution? Do you understand the ramifications when you do not do so and more than just you are being put at risk?
Quoting yonzabam:


Well, rising air over the US means sinking air elsewhere. Sinking air = low vertical instability.

I don't know how far east this effect would extend, but tropical storms in the east to mid Atlantic have developed 'normally' the past two years, but failed to ramp up in the western section.
No, drought over the Plains would be a sign of sinking air. Sinking air over the Plains would promote rising air elsewhere.
Quoting Levi32:


Maybe, but remember 2010 had an even higher SST anomaly in the MDR both pre-season and during the season than we are likely to see this year, yet vertical instability was below normal over much of the tropical Atlantic during the height of the hurricane season, despite the high ACE year we had.

I was talking to Tom earlier about this. I'm not entirely sure what has been causing low vertical instability since 2010. It could be that despite favorable SSTs, African dust has been at a higher concentration than normal, thus drying out the mid-troposphere and increasing stability. However, I don't know of a dataset that quantifies this, so I don't know how SAL in recent years compares with history.
I got your mail, thanks for the response. The problem with the vertical instability is definitely a result of the dry air in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere.

In recent years when instability has been lacking (used July-Oct of the last five years below) the low to mid levels of the atmosphere have been warmer than normal, while the upper levels have been around average -- this would tend to favor above average vertical instability. Moisture plots, however, are much more telling for the lack of vertical instability. Over the last three hurricane seasons, the tropical Atlantic has incredibly dry. Here are three very telling plots


Total Precipitable Water Anomaly




500mb RH Anomaly




300mb RH Anomaly





The next part of the problem is finding what is causing that. I went through nearly all the different oscillations and indices and it turns out mean global temperature appears to have the best correlation with dry air over the Atlantic. Below I have plotted the correlation between global mean temperatures and the same three variables (TPW, 500mb RH, 300mb RH).


Global Mean Temperature Correlated with Total Precipitable Water




Global Mean Temperature Correlated with 500mb Relative Humidity




Global Mean Temperature Correlated with 300mb Relative Humidity





These correlations not only match up, but they show almost the exact same patterns. With TPW the dry anomaly is most evident in the MDR. With 500mb RH, the dry anomaly over the last few years extends from the coast of Africa to the Lesser Antilles -- the exact same region where global temperatures have a negative correlation with 500mb RH. With 300mb RH, the dry anomaly is most evident in the Caribbean, but also extends over the MDR. Sure enough, the global temperature has it's strongest negative correlation in these same regions. Keep in mind a negative correlation between global temperatures and RH means that when temperatures are warm (positive anomaly), RH tends to be low (negative anomaly).


Hard to draw concussions without a mechanism, but the correlation sure is high...makes you wonder.
Looks like WA15 is gonna stay wet for a while with this one...
Quoting TomTaylor:
I got your mail, thanks for the response. The problem with the vertical instability is definitely a result of the dry air in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere.

In recent years when instability has been lacking (used July-Oct of the last five years below) the low to mid levels of the atmosphere have been warmer than normal, while the upper levels have been around average -- this would tend to favor above average vertical instability. Moisture plots, however, are much more telling for the lack of vertical instability. Over the last three hurricane seasons, the tropical Atlantic has incredibly dry. Here are three very telling plots


Total Precipitable Water Anomaly




500mb RH Anomaly




300mb RH Anomaly



The problem with that is the fact that if we look at the same products for the 2003-2007 time period, we get similar results.

EDIT: I see you added more, so scratch this comment.

Surface Precipitable Water Anomalies:



500mb Relative Humidity Anomalies:



300mb Relative Humidity Anomalies:

Quoting TomTaylor:
How does this match up to other years?

Positive anomaly is nice but it doesn't really us anything if it isn't put in context.


Here, I made you a quick 'n dirty plot of monthly Reynolds. The correlation with active and inactive Atlantic hurricane seasons is pretty obvious.

627. TomTaylor

Well I think the mechanism would not be the global temperature itself but the time-change of the global temperature. If the global temperature is rising (or at least the tropics temperature), since the atmosphere hasn't had the opportunity to evaporate more moisture from the ocean yet, its relative humidity will drop. Once the global temperature comes back down (like during a La Nina), the air will have more moisture than before, and the cooling temperatures will cause it to condensate.

This is why the worst Atlantic hurricane seasons come when there was an El Nino during the preceding winter which drops off into a La Nina (e.g. 2010). The cooling atmosphere in the tropics while the Atlantic SSTs are still warm causes enhanced moisture condensation. The opposite is true when global/tropics temperatures are warming as the hurricane season starts.

However, that doesn't explain 2010 being drier than normal, which again leads me to postulate an SAL problem.
Quoting Levi32:


Here, I made you a quick 'n dirty plot of monthly Reynolds. The correlation with active and inactive Atlantic hurricane seasons is pretty obvious.

Yess, got the plot out of ya.

Thanks Levi
Quoting Levi32:
627. TomTaylor

Well I think the mechanism would not be the global temperature itself but the time-change of the global temperature. If the global temperature is rising (or at least the tropics temperature), since the atmosphere hasn't had the opportunity to evaporate more moisture from the ocean yet, its relative humidity will drop. Once the global temperature comes back down (like during a La Nina), the air will have more moisture than before, and the cooling temperatures will cause it to condensate.

This is why the worst Atlantic hurricane seasons come when there was an El Nino during the preceding winter which drops off into a La Nina (e.g. 2010). The cooling atmosphere in the tropics while the Atlantic SSTs are still warm causes enhanced moisture condensation. The opposite is true when global/tropics temperatures are warming as the hurricane season starts.

However, that doesn't explain 2010 being drier than normal, which again leads me to postulate an SAL problem.
Yeah perhaps. And yeah, the Sahel influence must also be considered but it seems that Sahel Precipitation is on the upswing. Will be interesting to see how this graph evolves over the coming years

634. VR46L
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I believe that what bappit is saying that no one individual's efforts will help to mitigate the CO2 on a global scale. When someone asks, "Well, what are you doing to mitigate the CO2?" is trolling. (Look up the definition of "blog troll")

"IF you are big into believing that man is 100% cause . then you should set an example to people who dont completely buy into it !" - This is another trollish comment. Setting examples for safe flying, swimming or driving habits are not based upon if you believe in them or not. You may not believe in them but when you do not practice them you are putting everyone within your reach at risk. When you do this on a global scale you are putting everyone on the globe at risk. .. Have you never reasoned through the thought that one should always err on the side of caution? Do you understand the ramifications when you do not do so and more than just you are being put at risk?


I Dont agree with you I was always brought up to believe Do as I say , not as I do. is Hypercritical . And setting an example is key to spreading the word not posting insults at people who believe that it is part man fault . I honestly know you don't do that, but I seriously don't believe it is trollish to ask questions about Carbon footprint .



I am actually proud of my footprint , I have no car for 6 years, have not flown in 10 .Walk most places and reduce reuse and recycle in all instances so I do my bit . about the only thing that I waste is electric as I love the internet and spend too long on it .
Dry air weakened it substantially, and wind shear finished the job.

Well now I have reservations about the claim that vertical instability was actually below normal in the MDR in 2010, which is the only truly active year where the lower instability seemed contradictory.

Here's the 500mb relative humidity anomalies for Jul-Oct 2010:



Notice how most of the dry air is actually south of the region where storms develop. The African Easterly Wave corridor is plenty moist, and we obviously had a big Cape Verde season. It's very possible the dry air to the south is a result of an active wave train pulling the ITCZ farther north than normal.

Now remember SSD is our only source of "vertical instability" data, since they have created a metric for it (there are many possible metrics to measure stability).

Note where they define "tropical Atlantic" to be:



Now seeing as how this region extends all the way to the equator, it's easy to see how, due to the overlap with the region of dry air south of 10N during 2010, that vertical instability averaged below normal during the hurricane season over that region:



However, was it actually below normal in the MDR? I now doubt that.

And hey, look, for the top 9 ACE years, Jul-Oct 500mb relative humidity was actually below normal south of 10N, similar to 2010 (which is excluded from these top ACE years).

2010 was a bit drier overall than its fellow top ACE years, but I think the region defined as the tropical Atlantic by the SSD weighted the vertical instability measurements downward.

Quoting Levi32:
Well now I have reservations about the claim that vertical instability was actually below normal in the MDR in 2010, which is the only truly active year where the lower instability seemed contradictory.

Here's the 500mb relative humidity anomalies for Jul-Oct 2010:



Notice how most of the dry air is actually south of the region where storms develop. The African Easterly Wave corridor is plenty moist, and we obviously had a big Cape Verde season. It's very possible the dry air to the south is a result of an active wave train pulling the ITCZ farther north than normal.

Now remember SSD is our only source of "vertical instability" data, since they have created a metric for it (there are many possible metrics to measure stability).

Note where they define "tropical Atlantic" to be:



Now seeing as how this region extends all the way to the equator, it's easy to see how, due to the overlap with the region of dry air south of 10N during 2010, that vertical instability averaged below normal during the hurricane season over that region:



However, was it actually below normal in the MDR? I now doubt that.

Good point.

It is still odd to me that the net instability over the central tropical Atantic was below average. Yeah the main instability was focused over the MDR and likely caused more stability over the region from 10N on south to the equator, but the fact that the region as a whole experienced below average instability is still puzzling.
Looking down at the top of the sinkhole that swallowed the golfer yesterday

Only the thick interlocking roots kept the turf strong enough to very temporarily take his weight.
And ya hafta take a look at what happens after...

...a kid takes a $1 bet to splash a parking lot pothole puddle. If you haven't "been there, done that" at least once in your life, you'll never really understand . Accompanying story
Quoting aspectre:
Looking down at the top of the sinkhole that swallowed the golfer yesterday

Only the thick interlocking roots kept the turf strong enough to very temporarily take his weight.
And ya hafta take a look at what happens after...

...a kid takes a $1 bet to splash a parking lot pothole puddle. If you haven't "been there, done that" at least once in your life, ya'll never really understand

I have bad luck. If I were to be given money after jumping into a small pothole, I would.

...except with my luck, it would grow and deepen right as I was jumping.
Quoting VR46L:


I Dont agree with you I was always brought up to believe Do as I say , not as I do. is Hypercritical . And setting an example is key to spreading the word not posting insults at people who believe that it is part man fault . I honestly know you don't do that, but I seriously don't believe it is trollish to ask questions about Carbon footprint .



I am actually proud of my footprint , I have no car for 6 years, have not flown in 10 .Walk most places and reduce reuse and recycle in all instances so I do my bit . about the only thing that I waste is electric as I love the internet and spend too long on it .


Great comment VR..I like Rookie, he is very fair and I have never seen him put any poster down, also quite funny as well.

However, if the people who are passionate about global warming and saving the planet refuse to provide their own examples about what they are doing to help our planet, then its going to be real hard to convince someone who doesnt believe in GW. I hardly see that trolling in asking someone what steps they are taking. I have been lurking in Rood's blog and reading some of the "nicer" comments and skipping over the beating of the chest ones. I will say lately I have been keeping an open mind now about global warming..not saying I buy in it just yet but I'm not putting up a shield anymore..I'm taking baby steps over here, however when I see negative comments directed at people such as I who may be turning an eager ear to listen to the other side, it makes the shield come back up..I still have my own personal views about earth but I also am listening which is something I havent done in the past...
MesoWest Jurupa Valley CA US SGXWFO, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 2:49 PM PDT on March 12, 2013
Clear
85 °F
Clear
Humidity: 20%
Dew Point: 39 °F
Wind: 2 mph from the WNW
Wind Gust: 7.0 mph
Pressure: 29.96 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 82 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 4 out of 16
Pollen: 8.40 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 794 ft

I have 83.5 here right now (high)
Pretty solid slug of rain moving through my area now:

644. VR46L
Quoting ncstorm:


Great comment VR..I like Rookie, he is very fair and I have never seen him put any poster down, also quite funny as well.

However, if the people who are passionate about global warming and saving the planet refuse to provide their own examples about what they are doing to help our planet, then its going to be real hard to convince someone who doesnt believe in GW. I hardly see that trolling in asking someone what steps they are taking. I have been lurking in Rood's blog and reading some of the "nicer" comments and skipping over the beating of the chest ones. I will say lately I have been keeping an open mind now about global warming..not saying I buy in it just yet but I'm not putting up a shield anymore..I'm taking baby steps over here, however when I see negative comments directed at people such as I who may be turning an eager ear to listen to the other side, it makes the shield come back up..I still have my own personal views about earth but I also am listening which is something I havent done in the past...


Thank you NCSTORM , I agree with you . I have real respect for Rookie !

I will send you a mail as to the rest of your comment:)
Yes Rookie is one of those passionate believers in GW who doesn't go around harassing or insulting people because they don't see eye to eye with him.I have seen him discuss climate change with a more mature approach than others(who's name will not be mentioned but know who they are).Defetially a valued member here.
Quoting ncstorm:


Great comment VR..I like Rookie, he is very fair and I have never seen him put any poster down, also quite funny as well.

However, if the people who are passionate about global warming and saving the planet refuse to provide their own examples about what they are doing to help our planet, then its going to be real hard to convince someone who doesnt believe in GW. I hardly see that trolling in asking someone what steps they are taking. I have been lurking in Rood's blog and reading some of the "nicer" comments and skipping over the beating of the chest ones. I will say lately I have been keeping an open mind now about global warming..not saying I buy in it just yet but I'm not putting up a shield anymore..I'm taking baby steps over here, however when I see negative comments directed at people such as I who may be turning an eager ear to listen to the other side, it makes the shield come back up..I still have my own personal views about earth but I also am listening which is something I havent done in the past...
When it comes to empirical science, I guess I've never understood those who say, "I'd believe in or support X, but some of the people who do say mean things sometimes, so I just can't." As humans, emotions obviously play some part in every decision we make. But deciding whether we support, say, climate change, or evolution, or the Big Bang, or the existence of black holes--really shouldn't be based upon whether we've felt slighted by someone who does, or whether someone who does was hypocritical in our eyes. (And vice versa, of course.) No, it should be based solely on whether we agree with the preponderance of the evidence: the mountains of observational data collected by thousands of people over many years, along with the peer-reviewed interpretations of those data. Nothing more.

Example: I've talked with some very obnoxious types who, like me, are firm supporters of the scientific consensus that cigarette smoking causes lung cancer. I mean, very obnoxious types, people with whom I'd rather not waste one minute of my time. But that fact doesn't make me want to run out and smoke a carton of Marlboros. That would be tremendously illogical, no?

One's scientific "belief" (for lack of a more fitting word) should always stem from evidence, not emotion.
Quoting VR46L:


I fail to see how a question about carbon footprint is trolling .

IF you are big into believing that man is 100% cause . then you should set an example to people who dont completely buy into it !

Also every little helps if you cut down your emission ..

Also its good for the environment even if you do not believe its 100% mans fault .

The enormity of CO2 pollution makes questions about any individual's carbon footprint a non sequitur to the discussion. One might as well ask any number of other personal questions. Asking irrelevant personal questions is trolling.

650. txjac
Geez, somtimes when I read these comments I feel so intellectually challanged. Wish I had the time to understand half of what is said here ...
I'm usually working as I read posts (yes even now when it's well past). I really dont have a lot of left over time to read up and try to understand it all ...usually my searches are work related.

Thanks to all of you that put up with me ..your patience is greatly appreciated
Quoting VR46L:


I Dont agree with you I was always brought up to believe Do as I say , not as I do. is Hypercritical . And setting an example is key to spreading the word not posting insults at people who believe that it is part man fault . I honestly know you don't do that, but I seriously don't believe it is trollish to ask questions about Carbon footprint .



I am actually proud of my footprint , I have no car for 6 years, have not flown in 10 .Walk most places and reduce reuse and recycle in all instances so I do my bit . about the only thing that I waste is electric as I love the internet and spend too long on it .


I agree with you that one should be willing to practice what they preach. You have no idea of what I do on a personal basis and your asking me what I do by means of a blog sight is bit pointless, do you not agree? I could tell that I ride a bicycle everywhere I go, but I do not.

Here is what I "preach":

1. Consume less.

2. Plan trips for the shortest route and combine as many errands as possible into one trip.

3. Recycle all that I can.

4. Repair what is repairable instead of discarding.

5. Donate what is still unusable but I no longer need or want.

6. Adjust your thermostat.

7. Keep your tires properly inflated.

8. Keep your vehicle(s) properly tuned.

9. Drive within the speed limit.

10. Replace your car with a more mileage efficient car when it your car is due to be replaced.

11. Replace incandescent light bulbs with CFL or LED bulbs.

12. Wash clothes in the coldest water possible.

13. Wash a full load of clothes at a time without over loading the washer.

14. Dry clothes no longer to get them dry.

15. Do not completely dry clothes that will be hung in a closet.

What do I actually practice? ALL of the above.

What do I plan to further do to lessen my carbon footprint? I am always looking for ways to further reduce my carbon footprint.

I find it very interesting that you that lower your carbon footprint even though you do not seem to believe there are reasons to do so in order to mitigate the CO2 emissions. Perhaps you have discovered what I have? When you do these things it saves you a lot of money! Should this be incentive to do so, then this is incentive enough.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
SURVEY

I have been thinking on trying to come up with a list of all the possible outcomes for the Atlantic tropical activity.

The only way I am able to do it is by having anyone who would like to participate to shout out their forecast. I have a list where Im putting it all together in alphabetical order, in that way we all can compare our forecasts with each other...

So what I would like to know is if any is willing to give their own forecast of the possible named storm, hurricanes and major hurricanes we could see this year in the Atlantic basin.

I'll add all the ones I get or remove the ones you ask me to. So far I have some, a broader list would be great...

Again I'll remove anyone who doesn't want to be on it or add in.

I have some thus far... who else wants to participate?
If you want to go to my blog to tell me as for more privacy it's fine with me...



I'll keep updating it as soon as I can
You can add me if you want 16 or 17 tropical storms 8 or 10 hurricanes and 3 to 5 majors.
Remember:
Link Click it. I dare ya.
Quoting allancalderini:
You can add me if you want 16 or 17 tropical storms 8 or 10 hurricanes and 3 to 5 majors.
I'm for 18 t.s. 9 hurricanes 4 majors
18z GFS showed a rather curious system form over the Gulf of Mexico at the end of the run today. It starts out as a weak low here:



Then becomes a slightly stronger storm as it approaches and crosses over FL:







Is there any way the system depicted there could be tropical/subtropical? Or am I just way to anxious for hurricane season, lol?
Quoting interstatelover7166:
Remember:
Link Click it. I dare ya.


Before I click, I err on the side of caution, what is the link to the "cleverbot"? Is this from last year where "cleverbot" carries on a nonsensical, but humorous conversation with you?
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Before I click, I err on the side of caution, what is the link to the "cleverbot"? Is this from last year where "cleverbot" carries on a nonsensical, but humorous conversation with you?
yes
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
18z GFS showed a rather curious system form over the Gulf of Mexico at the end of the run today. It starts out as a weak low here:



Then becomes a slightly stronger storm as it approaches and crosses over FL:







Is there any way the system depicted there could be tropical/subtropical? Or am I just way to anxious for hurricane season, lol?


the 12z CMC has the same run







the cyclone phase analysis doesnt go out that far in the run so I am not able to see if its warm core or not
659. VR46L
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I agree with you that one should be willing to practice what they preach. You have no idea of what I do on a personal basis and your asking me what I do by means of a blog sight is bit pointless, do you not agree? I could tell that I ride a bicycle everywhere I go, but I do not.

Here is what I "preach":

1. Consume less.

2. Plan trips for the shortest route and combine as many errands as possible into one trip.

3. Recycle all that I can.

4. Repair what is repairable instead of discarding.

5. Donate what is still unusable but I no longer need or want.

6. Adjust your thermostat.

7. Keep your tires properly inflated.

8. Keep your vehicle(s) properly tuned.

9. Drive within the speed limit.

10. Replace your car with a more mileage efficient car when it your car is due to be replaced.

11. Replace incandescent light bulbs with CFL or LED bulbs.

12. Wash clothes in the coldest water possible.

13. Wash a full load of clothes at a time without over loading the washer.

14. Dry clothes no longer to get them dry.

15. Do not completely dry clothes that will be hung in a closet.

What do I actually practice? ALL of the above.

What do I plan to further do to lessen my carbon footprint? I am always looking for ways to further reduce my carbon footprint.

I find it very interesting that you that lower your carbon footprint even though you do not seem to believe there are reasons to do so in order to mitigate the CO2 emissions. Perhaps you have discovered what I have? When you do these things it saves you a lot of money! Should this be incentive to do so, then this is incentive enough.


Rookie , I never meant a slight on you , I really didn't !

Its just that I am of the opinion that when people talk of reducing CO2 they really should in their own life practice what they preach . And I don't believe it is trollish , I have seen several good weather bloggers ask this Question , But you are one of the few that will disclose . I believe it sets an example and leans more credence to your argument. Personally I read your posts and take them on board . To me you are an example of you can catch more flies with honey than vinegar (ie People who are not believers that it is 100% man fault would be more inclined to read your point of view than those who tend to be insulting and patronizing)
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
18z GFS showed a rather curious system form over the Gulf of Mexico at the end of the run today. It starts out as a weak low here:



Then becomes a slightly stronger storm as it approaches and crosses over FL:







Is there any way the system depicted there could be tropical/subtropical? Or am I just way to anxious for hurricane season, lol?

Notice the gradient of 500 mb heights that pass through the system. That's a tell-tale sign of a baroclinic system.
If only we could live in the world of the 15-day GFS forecast. I would love to see this. Look at the high-quality moisture this thing would be tapping into.

662. etxwx
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I believe that what bappit is saying that no one individual's efforts will help to mitigate the CO2 on a global scale. When someone asks, "Well, what are you doing to mitigate the CO2?" is trolling. (Look up the definition of "blog troll")


(Edited Rookie's post to just address the above part.)
For me, it often boils down to the way the question is worded. On a written forum, people have no facial expressions or body language to read to help them interpret the person's intent or tone. If someone says "I'm curious to know what individuals can do to reduce their carbon foot print. Do you have some examples?" it carries a different tone than "Well, what are you doing to mitigate the CO2?"
Quoting VR46L:


Rookie , I never meant a slight on you , I really didn't !

Its just that I am of the opinion that when people talk of reducing CO2 they really should in their own life practice what they preach . And I don't believe it is trollish , I have seen several good weather bloggers ask this Question , But you are one of the few that will disclose . I believe it sets an example and leans more credence to your argument. Personally I read your posts and take them on board . To me you are an example of you can catch more flies with honey than vinegar (ie People who are not believers that it is 100% man fault would be more inclined to read your point of view than those who tend to be insulting and patronizing)


No worries, VR46L. We have had enough conversations that I did not take anything in a negative way because I knew you do not intend it to be negative. You are inquisitive on many subjects and this will serve you well. Never be reluctant to learn more than what you know now. The best way I found to learn is through conversations with others. ... Talking to myself never got me anywhere that didn't involve men in white smocks and carrying butterfly nets. :)

Quoting Neapolitan:
When it comes to empirical science, I guess I've never understood those who say, "I'd believe in or support X, but some of the people who do say mean things sometimes, so I just can't." As humans, emotions obviously play some part in every decision we make. But deciding whether we support, say, climate change, or evolution, or the Big Bang, or the existence of black holes--really shouldn't be based upon whether we've felt slighted by someone who does, or whether someone who does was hypocritical in our eyes. (And vice versa, of course.) No, it should be based solely on whether we agree with the preponderance of the evidence: the mountains of observational data collected by thousands of people over many years, along with the peer-reviewed interpretations of those data. Nothing more.

Example: I've talked with some very obnoxious types who, like me, are firm supporters of the scientific consensus that cigarette smoking causes lung cancer. I mean, very obnoxious types, people with whom I'd rather not waste one minute of my time. But that fact doesn't make me want to run out and smoke a carton of Marlboros. That would be tremendously illogical, no?

One's scientific "belief" (for lack of a more fitting word) should always stem from evidence, not emotion.


then you will never win people over to further your cause if you yourself are not in the trenches proving your commitment...isnt that the whole objective to up the numbers in believers and have them vote in legislative? how can you say emotions shouldnt be tied into this?..you are one of the most passionate posters on here about GW and saving the earth?..Scientists are humans last time I checked so unless you are some type of robot, then you display emotion every time you write a post here..you cant separate the two..It comes through in your writing..I hate to tell you but you care which I must inform you is an emotion..

also, I have seen your ideology of the cigarettes too many times..come up with a new one..
poss event detected

Quoting interstatelover7166:
yes


Oh, yes! Cleverbot! I will have to give it another try. Thanks!
668. VR46L
Quoting Levi32:
If only we could live in the world of the 15-day GFS forecast. I would love to see this. Look at the high-quality moisture this thing would be tapping into.



I think Most of Florida would like to see it, as it would hardly be tropical . I noticed its cold core .... but its so late in the GFS forecast ..It would need to keep appearing to be believed!!


Anyway Good Night Folks!
Quoting VR46L:


Rookie , I never meant a slight on you , I really didn't !

Its just that I am of the opinion that when people talk of reducing CO2 they really should in their own life practice what they preach . And I don't believe it is trollish , I have seen several good weather bloggers ask this Question , But you are one of the few that will disclose . I believe it sets an example and leans more credence to your argument. Personally I read your posts and take them on board . To me you are an example of you can catch more flies with honey than vinegar (ie People who are not believers that it is 100% man fault would be more inclined to read your point of view than those who tend to be insulting and patronizing)

The "argument" doesn't change regardless of how the messenger acts. Although it certainly makes sense for someone to do as they say (and is frustrating when they don't), it really has very little to do with climate science (or any science, for that matter).

Science is the truth regardless of whether or not someone believes it to be true, and focusing on whether or not a messenger is doing something you think they should be doing is really more a distraction than an actual discussion of what the science says. This is why it could be considered trollish behavior - it borders on ad hominem, which is not a logical argument.
Quoting ncstorm:


then you will never win people over to further your cause if you yourself are not in the trenches proving your commitment...isnt that the whole objective to up the numbers in believers and have them vote in legislative?

It's not Jim's job to "win people over." The science is the truth regardless of what Jim does. If you are going to make decisions on science based not on the science itself but on what Jim does or what you think Jim does, then that really says more about you than anything - or anyone - else.

Of course you can replace "Jim" with any person you wish and it would still be accurate.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
18z GFS showed a rather curious system form over the Gulf of Mexico at the end of the run today. It starts out as a weak low here:



Then becomes a slightly stronger storm as it approaches and crosses over FL:







Is there any way the system depicted there could be tropical/subtropical? Or am I just way to anxious for hurricane season, lol?
Looks like the "Storm of the Century" wants to make a return.
Quoting ScottLincoln:

It's not Jim's job to "win people over." The science is the truth regardless of what Jim does. If you are going to make decisions on science based not on the science itself but on what Jim does or what you think Jim does, then that really says more about you than anything - or anyone - else.

Of course you can replace "Jim" with any person you wish and it would still be accurate.


I have to disagree..I'm going to even use one of the greatest scientists to prove my point in "do as I say"...

When Louis Pasteur who I can say is not Jim invented the process of Pasteurization, did he continue to drink the sour milk that wasnt pasteurized..no he led by example and dranked his own discovery which in turn led to others to adopt the milk we know of today..my point is Louis, Jim, You or I cant put ideas out there for others to commit to if one is not even following them..
12Z GFS ENSEMBLE the ones that have it



This one is at 384HR
That is good rain in FL
676. wxmod
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/mar/11/dead- pigs-chinese-river

Thousands of dead pigs found floating in Chinese river

This is from yesterday and I didn't have time to post it here. Hope you're not at the dinner table!

79 days until Hurricane season 2013!:)
678. etxwx
Quoting ncstorm:


I have to disagree..I'm going to even use one of the greatest scientists to prove my point in "do as I say"...

When Louis Pasteur who I can say is not Jim invented the process of Pasteurization, did he continue to drink the sour milk that wasnt pasteurized..no he led by example and dranked his own discovery which in turn led to others to adopt the milk we know of today..my point is Louis, Jim, You or I cant put ideas out there for others to commit to if one is not even following them..


Or perhaps people may be reluctant to post information about their personal lives on an open internet forum. Lack of specifics about what they are doing or how they live their lives should not necessarily be construed as not leading by example or not practicing what they preach. To me it's just good sense to be circumspect about posting personal information on the internet.
Rain is over...lots of run off
Quoting allancalderini:
You can add me if you want 16 or 17 tropical storms 8 or 10 hurricanes and 3 to 5 majors.


Sure, I'll put in anyone who wants to be added.

sorry for the spelling issue
681. wxmod
Quoting aspectre:
503 wxmod: This planet will look like Venus when we are done.

Not Venus... but it's possible to get quite a bit closer to a Venusian-style greenhouse-runaway than anyone would have thought even a year ago
Traditionally, Earth had been placed in the middle of the HabitableZone around the Sun, with Venus being a little too close to the Sun to provide a long-term habitable atmosphere (ie one that can hold liquid water on the surface for over a billion years).
The most recent planetary atmospheric models show that Venus is by far too close to the Sun to have ever supported conditions that are favorable to the development of life, with the Earth being very close to the inner edge of habitability.


The models are based on observation from the Earth in its present condition. I don't think there are any limits to what can happen or how fast it can happen. What I see in satellite photos is global atmospheric change. Who knows where it will go. One tipping point might quickly lead to another previously unimagined.
Lol at the models trying to develop a sub-tropical system.
It is my belief and still is to this day the the beginnings of the 1993 super storm that formed in the gulf was at one point sub-tropical.Call me crazy all you want.
683. txjac
Quoting washingtonian115:
Lol at the models trying to develop a sub-tropical system.
It is my belief and still is to this day the the beginnings of the 1993 super storm that formed in the gulf was at one point sub-tropical.Call me crazy all you want.


You're crazy Wash! That's why I like you! LOL ...
I've been following this blog for years and still can't figure what 18z and 24z etc. mean. Can someone help?
Greenwich Mean Time is also called Zulu time. I think it is military terminology. That's what the "z" stands for.
686. txjac
Quoting bappit:
Greenwich Mean Time is also called Zulu time. I think it is military terminology. That's what the "z" stands for.


Does that mean that 18z is 6:00 pm and 24Z midnight?
Quoting bappit:
Greenwich Mean Time is also called Zulu time. I think it is military terminology. That's what the "z" stands for.
Quoting txjac:


Does that mean that 18z is 6:00 pm and 24Z midnight?
Quoting ozelloslim:
I've been following this blog for years and still can't figure what 18z and 24z etc. mean. Can someone help?

00z is 8pm EDT, 06z is 2am EDT, 12z is 8am EDT, and 18z is 2pm EDT.
Quoting ozelloslim:
I've been following this blog for years and still can't figure what 18z and 24z etc. mean. Can someone help?

Z is Zulu time, aka GMT (Greenwich Mean Time). It is just another way of telling time and it is on a 24hr incriminate. Right now it is 02:08z or 2:08 GMT. Hopefully that helps.
689. wxmod
Here's a satellite photo taken today off the coast of California. Is this a new art form? Notice the top circle is about 60 miles in diameter. MODIS


Score card a little expanded....Still looking for anyone else who would like to join it..
9 people already!.... give it a try...!
Just tell me that you think the outcome of this season is, anyone's opinion counts!

Or go to my blog and give me your numbers...
If you want to make changes let me know as well.
Thanks to those who have already! :)



click on image for larger view.
Txjac we're in central time, so there is a six hour difference for standard time and 5 hour difference for daylight savings.
Quoting txjac:


You're crazy Wash! That's why I like you! LOL ...
I just wish we had the same technology like we do now to track weather back then.If we did it could've proven my theory.
Greenwich Mean Time – GMT
Greenwich Mean Time (GMT) was adopted as the world’s time standard at the Washington Meridian Conference in 1884. This conference also established Universal Time, from which the international 24-hour time-zone system grew. This is why all time zones refer back to GMT on the prime meridian. The prime meridian at Greenwich, in the United Kingdom, has served as the reference line for GMT since the late 19th century.

The prime meridian was defined by the position of the large “Transit Circle” telescope in the Observatory’s Meridian Building in 1884. The cross-hairs in the Transit Circle’s eyepiece precisely defined longitude 0° for the world. The Earth’s crust is moving very slightly all the time so the prime meridian’s exact position is now moving very slightly too. However, the original reference for the world’s prime meridian is still the Airy Transit Circle in the Royal Observatory in the United Kingdom.

GMT was at first calculated by the 24-hour clock starting at noon. However, since 1925, the day of GMT starts at midnight. GMT was later renamed to Universal Time, or UT. It is also known as UT0. It becomes UT1 when it is corrected for the irregular movements of the terrestrial poles, also known as the Chandler wobble. The Earth’s poles do not spin perfectly in a straight line.

More Developments with Time Systems
Following UT1, the concept of “UT2” was developed to correct certain seasonal variations for better time accuracy. Mechanical clocks are more regular than the sun so the atomic clock is more accurate than the Earth. The concept of Atomic Time was established with the development of mechanical clocks.

The most accurate clocks use an atomic transition in a caesium vapor, which defines a very accurate frequency. This frequency is then divided down to give seconds and minutes. Many atomic clocks are used to define a local time standard time service. There are many separate time services throughout the world and a combined mean version of their time measurement is used as International Atomic Time (TAI). TAI is the International Atomic Time scale, a statistical timescale based on a large number of atomic clocks. However, this takes no notice of the Earth’s rotation as measured by UT1 so another standard for civil time, known as Coordinated Universal Time (UTC), is used.

The Development of UTC
UTC differs from TAI by an integral number of seconds. The addition or subtraction of leap seconds to TAI produces UTC. In other words, a leap second, as measured by an atomic clock, is added to or subtracted from (although subtractions are rare) UTC to make it agree with astronomical time to within 0.9 second. The world's timing centers agreed to keep their real-time timescales closely synchronized (“coordinated”) with UTC. Hence, all these atomic timescales are called Coordinated Universal Time (UTC). UTC relates to solar motion. A constant day of exactly 24 hours is used for civil time keeping purposes.

UTC is often called GMT although the term is used on occasions for UT1. UTC is also the time broadcast since 1972 by radio stations across the world and is popularly referred to as GMT. UTC is also the time system used in aviation and is informally known as Zulu Time to avoid confusion about time zones and daylight saving time. timeanddate.com provides a more detailed explanation about UTC.

Other Time Systems
Astronomers use other measures of time, such as Terrestrial Dynamical Time (TDT), which is 32.184 seconds ahead of TAI. TDT, also known as Terrestrial Time (TT), with a unit of duration 86400 SI seconds on the geoid, is the independent argument of apparent geocentric ephemerides. Therefore:
TDT = TAI + 32.184 seconds.

TDT is used for calculating planetary positions in relation to the Earth’s center. Delta T is the difference between Earth’s rotational time (UT1) and dynamical time (TDT). TDT has been used since 1984. Prior to this, astronomers used a time measure known as Ephemeris Time (ET). Before atomic clocks, Ephemeris Time (ET) was the closest available approximation to a uniform time for planetary motion calculations.

Other time systems include:

■Barycentric Dynamical Time (TDB), the independent argument of ephemerides and dynamical theories that are referred to the solar system barycenter. TDB varies from TT only by periodic variations.
■Barycentric Coordinate Time (TCB), which is a coordinate time having its spatial origin at the solar system barycenter. TCB differs from TDB in rate.
■Sidereal Time, with unit of duration the period of the Earth's rotation with respect to a point nearly fixed with respect to the stars, is the hour angle of the vernal equinox.
■Geocentric Coordinate Time (TCG), a coordinate time having its spatial origin at the center of mass of the Earth.
Note: timeanddate.com wishes to acknowledge some of the information in this article is courtesy of the UK’s National Maritime Museum and the United States Naval Observatory. It is also important to note that this article does not mention every time system but simply provides an overview of time systems.



from time and date.com
I've actually recently changed my phone's time to GMT so I don't have to convert the timestamps on metorological products all the time. However, the drawback is that I have to convert the time for everything else. :P
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I agree with you that one should be willing to practice what they preach. You have no idea of what I do on a personal basis and your asking me what I do by means of a blog sight is bit pointless, do you not agree? I could tell that I ride a bicycle everywhere I go, but I do not.

Here is what I "preach":

1. Consume less.

2. Plan trips for the shortest route and combine as many errands as possible into one trip.

3. Recycle all that I can.

4. Repair what is repairable instead of discarding.

5. Donate what is still unusable but I no longer need or want.

6. Adjust your thermostat.

7. Keep your tires properly inflated.

8. Keep your vehicle(s) properly tuned.

9. Drive within the speed limit.

10. Replace your car with a more mileage efficient car when it your car is due to be replaced.

11. Replace incandescent light bulbs with CFL or LED bulbs.

12. Wash clothes in the coldest water possible.

13. Wash a full load of clothes at a time without over loading the washer.

14. Dry clothes no longer to get them dry.

15. Do not completely dry clothes that will be hung in a closet.

What do I actually practice? ALL of the above.

What do I plan to further do to lessen my carbon footprint? I am always looking for ways to further reduce my carbon footprint.

I find it very interesting that you that lower your carbon footprint even though you do not seem to believe there are reasons to do so in order to mitigate the CO2 emissions. Perhaps you have discovered what I have? When you do these things it saves you a lot of money! Should this be incentive to do so, then this is incentive enough.
Now if we could get China & India to do these things that would make a big difference!!
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Score card a little expanded....Still looking for anyone else who would like to join it..
9 people already!.... give it a try...!
Just tell me that you think the outcome of this season is, anyone's opinion counts!

Or go to my blog and give me your numbers...
If you want to make changes let me know as well.
Thanks to those who have already! :)



click on image for larger view.

heres mine 16-8-4
Quoting 1900hurricane:
I've actually recently changed my phone's time to GMT so I don't have to convert the timestamps on metorological products all the time. However, the drawback is that I have to convert the time for everything else. :P


I've had UTC/local time conversion completely memorized since I was 9 years old lol. Unfortunately I learned the conversions for during daylight savings time, since that is summer time when I am looking at meteorological products the most, so outside of DST I have to subtract an hour from local, or add an hour to UTC.

I don't mind too much though. I'd rather have the system down during hurricane season than at any other time of the year. Now once I move away from Alaska for graduate school, those conversions won't be fun. I won't be able to stay up for the 0z ECMWF either :(
Quoting ncstorm:


I have to disagree..I'm going to even use one of the greatest scientists to prove my point in "do as I say"...

When Louis Pasteur who I can say is not Jim invented the process of Pasteurization, did he continue to drink the sour milk that wasnt pasteurized..no he led by example and dranked his own discovery which in turn led to others to adopt the milk we know of today..my point is Louis, Jim, You or I cant put ideas out there for others to commit to if one is not even following them..
In my long experience dealing with climate change, I've found one of the most common denialist tactics is to repeatedly ask, "If you believe the planet is warming, what are you doing about it?". Now, I--and others--have answered that question dozens, perhaps hundreds, of times. I myself have gone into great detail on numerous occasions with details about my lifestyle, my carbon footprint, my own conservation efforts, and so on. And every time I've done so--literally every time--the immediate denialist response has been, "You know, if you really thought climate change was happening, you'd do more." So it wasn't too long before I realized that the question was almost always being asked as a distraction, and very seldom was it asked in earnest. And since I figured that out, I've responded to it with decreasing frequency.

The thing is, if a Michael Mann or a Kevin Trenberth or a Grant Foster or a James Hansen or a Jeff Masters or a Bill McKibben does something that adds to climate change--takes a ride in a jumbo jet, say, or forgets to turn off the light when leaving the house one morning, or sets the office thermostat to 72 instead of 76 one July afternoon--that does nothing to throw the science of climate change into doubt. Nothing. There are many who will jump up and down, shout "Gotcha!!!", and claim that it does, but that doesn't make it so. So repeatedly asking a supporter of climate change theory to explain what they do to combat that change is nothing but a disingenuous--and, let's face it, very unoriginal--ploy to get them to admit to doing something that creates CO2. And for that reason, I--and many others--refuse to waste any further time answering it. We've simply got far more important things to do...
The water temp for Buoy # 13010 is 85.1 F is that normal for this time of the Year?
Evening all.... a quick checkin before I head to bed...

We are still experiencing swells from the latest winter storm to come offshore of the CONUS... in particular mailboat sailings have been hampered due to the large swells, but coastal erosion along the eastern islands is also a big concern.

Dunno if anybody posted it, but the swells have also allegedly led to a drowning death here over the weekend.

Additionally, two men of a four-man fishing party have gone missing after boat allegedly capsized this weekend.
I'll have the chart updated tomorrow morning... 14 listed now, let's have some more!
see post 690 for reference

Thanks!
Arctic





Averaged over the 34 years of data coverage, the thickness cycle has peaked in July and reached its minimum in December. Note also that average thickness has decreased over time in all 12 months of the year, the decrease has been much greater during summer and fall months. It has also been most severe quite recently, since 2010. All this has changed the shape and the timing of the annual cycle of thickness. We can see this even more plainly if we compare the average annual cycle for times prior to 2010, to that after 2010:



Averaged over the last three years, the annual thickness cycle has peaked in May and bottomed out in November, shifting its timing by about 2 months. It has also changed its shape. Prior to 2010, the cycle showed a slower rise to maximum and faster drop to minimum, but recently the rise and fall have been at about the same rate so the cycle is more symmetrical about its peak (and is more "sinusoidal").

It's also worth noting that the annual maximum thickness is now about equal to the pre-2010 average annual minimum. The decline in sea ice thickness has combined with the decline in sea ice area to bring about the amazing decline of Arctic sea ice volume.


http://tamino.wordpress.com/2013/03/13/arctic-sea -ice-loss-part-2/
Quoting washingtonian115:
I just wish we had the same technology like we do now to track weather back then.If we did it could've proven my theory.


I recently read about this early storm. Although it was April and not March. Would've been interesting to know what was going on in 1554. Lol. It made the Texas hurricane history study where they refer to it as a "spring gale." Another site calls it an early hurricane but also alludes to another storm?

April 1554
: Fifteen of the twenty ships of the New Spain Flota,
with around 300 passengers en route from Vera Cruz to Havana, and loaded with silver and gold along the Lower Texas coast, were demolished during a springtime gale. Three of the heaviest vessels sunk immediately. The other 17 were either scattered across the Gulf of Mexico, grounded, or had capsized just off Padre Island near Devil’s Elbow...three of which were the San Estevan,
Santa Maria de Yciar, and Espiritu Santo Andres. Only300 of the 2000 aboard ship made it to shore alive. But to the misfortune of the Spaniards, they had horrible relations with the local tribe of Native Americans, known as the Karankawa. As they struggled to go south into Mexico, they had to fight them off along the way. Only two of the original 2000 ever lived to tell the tale of their misfortune. Their story prompted salvage vessels to visit the site on July 22nd(Chipman).


A rare Mexican Silver Splash from the 1554 Fleet with a Charles I Quinto.

Treasure found on the wreck of the San Andreas

Four treasure-laden Spanish ships left Vera Cruz for Havana in late April of 1554. When an early season hurricane caught the Admiral Curzo's Flota on April 28th as it entered the Gulf of Mexico, three of the four were driven northwest and wrecked on the Texas coast off Padre Island. One ship, the SAN ANDREAS, though badly damaged, managed to steer a sufficiently northerly course to outrun the hurricane, and eventually turn east for Havana. A rescue squadron under Capt Farfan found the sinking San Andreas north of Havana about a week later and off-loaded her treasure, just as second major storm struck and drove the rescue ships east of Cuba. There, on the shoals that line the coast of what is now known as the Dominican Republic, Capt Farfan's ships wrecked and were lost with the treasure of the San Andreas. More than 500 years would pass before the San Andreas' treasure would see sunlight.

In 2006 a UK-based salvage group was following the suspected track of Farfan's ships and found a 1550's Spanish wreck. They were soon able to confirm its identify because its treasure, coins and bullions, was identical to that found on the Padre Islands wrecks.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
I'll have the chart updated tomorrow morning... 12 people listed, some more please!
see post 690 for reference

Thanks!


Thanks for taking the time to do that. Now we don't have to remember where we put the scrap of paper that our prediction is scribbled on.
Quoting PedleyCA:


Thanks for taking the time to do that. Now we don't have to remember where we put the scrap of paper that our prediction is scribbled on.


cool thing right...? I have been working on that, thanks for participating...

The purpose of it is to compare our numbers with the other buddies here as well as those of TWC (if they ever give any out), the NHC outlook and at the end of the season to see who was the closest one to the actual results...

We all can argue or agree about it...lol
Sweet Dreams everyone, Should have bailed an hour ago.
Sleep Well - Stay Safe - Hang Loose
Quoting ozelloslim:
I've been following this blog for years and still can't figure what 18z and 24z etc. mean. Can someone help?


They are model times in zulu... GMT
someone asked me a good question... at any time you can contribute to the poll, not necessarily now..
695 gulfbreeze: Now if we could get China & India to do these things that would make a big difference!!

They'd use about 8times as much fossil fuel as they currently do.
And there'd be a heck of a lot less recycling going on.
Quoting Levi32:


I've had UTC/local time conversion completely memorized since I was 9 years old lol. Unfortunately I learned the conversions for during daylight savings time, since that is summer time when I am looking at meteorological products the most, so outside of DST I have to subtract an hour from local, or add an hour to UTC.

I don't mind too much though. I'd rather have the system down during hurricane season than at any other time of the year. Now once I move away from Alaska for graduate school, those conversions won't be fun. I won't be able to stay up for the 0z ECMWF either :(
What implication does the arabian sea SST have on the atlantic for hurricane season?
711. txjac
Quoting aspectre:
695 gulfbreeze: Now if we could get China & India to do these things that would make a big difference!!

They'd use about 8times as much fossil fuel as they currently do.


I'm curious as to why you suspect that?
Zulu or GMT or UTC....

If you live at longitude 0 degrees, or along the prime meridian, you don't have to worry about it...it's the same as your local time.

The places are, British Isles, Iceland, Portugal and al western African countries, as will as some Islands in the South Atlantic...

however...
Hours are added if you live to the right or subtracted if you live to the left, the further away the more hours it is...

look at the bottom pic... btw NYC EDT time is 11:12 PM or 03:12 GMT, Z or UTC
Quoting Gearsts:
What implication does the arabian sea SST have on the atlantic for hurricane season?


It has a very strong positive correlation with ENSO, but I'm not sure what else. It may affect the Indian monsoon circulation, which may affect African easterly waves, but I have not researched it much.
Quoting Levi32:


It has a very strong positive correlation with ENSO, but I'm not sure what else. It may affect the Indian monsoon circulation, which may affect African easterly waves, but I have not researched it much.


I have seen very strong waves over eastern Africa, some of them make their way across sometimes weaker. And they emerge into E Atl and some do develop... could we say the Arabian Sea has an influence as to waves making their way from there into Atl...besides what you estated?
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #2
TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDRA, CATEGORY ONE
12:23 PM EST March 13 2013
===========================================

Tropical Cyclone Watches
===========================

A Cyclone WATCH has been declared for Tropical Cyclone Sandra for Lord Howe Island

TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDRA, CATEGORY 1, is situated over the central Coral Sea and is moving to the south. The latest forecasting guidance suggests a weak category 1 system will continue tracking south over the next 24 hours. It is then expected to reintensify into a system with category 2 impacts during Thursday afternoon as it approaches Lord Howe Island.

Very rough seas, heavy swells and abnormally high tides are expected to develop about Lord Howe Island during Thursday and persist into Friday.

Gales with with damaging gusts to about 110 km/hr are expected to develop on Lord Howe Island during Thursday. Destructive wind gusts up to 150km/hr will then possibly develop late Thursday.

Areas of heavy rain which may lead to flash flooding are also expected to develop over Lord Howe Island during Thursday and persist into Friday.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I have seen very strong waves over eastern Africa, some of them make their way across sometimes weaker. And they emerge into E Atl and some do develop... could we say the Arabian Sea has an influence as to waves making their way from there into Atl...besides what you estated?
I'm not Levi, but in general a warm Arabian sea is a bad thing.

The top 10 ACE years all featured cooler waters in the Arabian Sea




Furthermore, the Sahel precipitation Index has a negative correlation with SSTs in the Arabian Sea. This means we want cooler SSTs there for above average Sahel precipitation.

Here's a new way to go green~ divest your funds away from fossil fuels.

Taking it a step farther groups of people can divest their funds as a whole as this college just did. Behold..the power of students..

At a special meeting of College of the Atlantic’s Board of Trustees on Monday, March 11, the trustees accepted a student proposal to divest the college from all fossil fuel-related investments. The divestment of all stocks goes into effect immediately.
Quoting aspectre:
695 gulfbreeze: Now if we could get China & India to do these things that would make a big difference!!

They'd use about 8times as much fossil fuel as they currently do.
And there'd be a heck of a lot less recycling going on.
We do not need that China is putting so much co2 in the air now but i get your point.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I have seen very strong waves over eastern Africa, some of them make their way across sometimes weaker. And they emerge into E Atl and some do develop... could we say the Arabian Sea has an influence as to waves making their way from there into Atl...besides what you estated?


As far as I can tell the interactions between that region of the world and Africa are not very well known.

There is a paper (Janicot, 2009) that uses a dry primitive equation model to demonstrate a possible relationship between the Indian monsoon and Sahel convection due to monsoon waves breaking off over Asia and propagating westward over northern Africa.

However, without including interactions with deep, moist convection, the results are uncertain.

The Indian monsoon seems to me to be the only significant means by which Arabian SSTs could influence African easterly waves, it seems to be a loose connection at this point. It is also possible that warm Arabian water may reduce convection over the adjacent continent, and vice versa. The MJO is by far the biggest modulator of Africa's multi-week convective cycle.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Score card a little expanded....Still looking for anyone else who would like to join it..
9 people already!.... give it a try...!
Just tell me that you think the outcome of this season is, anyone's opinion counts!

Or go to my blog and give me your numbers...
If you want to make changes let me know as well.
Thanks to those who have already! :)



click on image for larger view.

Max, I left my thoughts and number on your blog.
Quoting Levi32:


As far as I can tell the interactions between that region of the world and Africa are not very well known.

There is a paper (Janicot, 2009) that uses a dry primitive equation model to demonstrate a possible relationship between the Indian monsoon and Sahel convection due to monsoon waves breaking off over Asia and propagating westward over northern Africa.

However, without including interactions with deep, moist convection, the results are uncertain.

The Indian monsoon seems to me to be the only significant means by which Arabian SSTs could influence African easterly waves, it seems to be a loose connection at this point. It is also possible that warm Arabian water may reduce convection over the adjacent continent, and vice versa. The MJO is by far the biggest modulator of Africa's multi-week convective cycle.

Levi, is there any correlation between the strength of the Indian Monsoon and the ATL Hurricane season?
When the water is cooler in the the Arabian sea..

1. More moisture is present because it's raining &

2. Cooler sea has cooler air above that gets swept over the hot land of Africa causing further instability & enhanced waves..


Sandra..


Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Does anyone think the big one is about to hit Calf. There was a story on CNN or FOX today about all the small quakes there yesterday.
Quoting TomTaylor:
I'm not Levi, but in general a warm Arabian sea is a bad thing.

The top 10 ACE years all featured cooler waters in the Arabian Sea




Furthermore, the Sahel precipitation Index has a negative correlation with SSTs in the Arabian Sea. This means we want cooler SSTs there for above average Sahel precipitation.



That was the next thing I was going to check. That seems to make sense given that oceanic convection and continental convection often change at the detriment of each other. It's just that African convection and Indian convection often vary together in the summer. That's why MJO octants 2 and 3 are usually good for African waves.
I'll have my chart tomorrow with the new add ins..
Quoting TomTaylor:
I'm not Levi, but in general a warm Arabian sea is a bad thing.

The top 10 ACE years all featured cooler waters in the Arabian Sea




Furthermore, the Sahel precipitation Index has a negative correlation with SSTs in the Arabian Sea. This means we want cooler SSTs there for above average Sahel precipitation.



it's like the pacific El nino... in 2009 for example, the Atlantic was below average activity while the eastern Pacific bombed... we got 180 mph Rick out of there

That's alright Tom, you're an expert at this weather matter too.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Levi, is there any correlation between the strength of the Indian Monsoon and the ATL Hurricane season?


As I said, the only direct connection between the two is likely African waves, and their interaction doesn't seem to be well known yet from what I've read. It would seem to make sense that a stronger Indian monsoon would enhance African wave activity, but the question is how much.

As Tom demonstrated, historical data seems to suggest that a cooler Arabian Sea, and thus likely a stronger Indian monsoon, seems to correlate with higher Sahel rainfall.
The 2005 Indian monsoon season was one of the wettest and most destructive on record. We know what happened with tropical cyclone activity.

The correlation does seem to be there.
To answer (address an opinion) Doc's question in a word ....
yes

g'eve
ENSO is a big player too. El Nino years the high tends to shift east over India shutting down the monsoons. El Nino years we usually don't see a higher number of storms.
Quoting Skyepony:
ENSO is a big player too. El Nino years the high tends to shift east over India shutting down the monsoons. El Nino years we usually don't see a higher number of storms.


Yeah, but it's hard to tell whether the shutting down of the monsoon contributes to the impact on the Atlantic, or if the Atlantic mostly responds to the ENSO itself.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:30 PM EST March 13 2013
========================================

A tropical low situated over the far northwest Coral Sea, near 11.9S 143.6E at 1:00 PM EST, is moving to the east southeast away from the Queensland coast. The tropical low is expected to deepen and continue moving east southeast across the Coral Sea in the next few days.

The low is likely to strengthen to tropical cyclone strength on Thursday.

There is currently no direct threat to the Queensland coast throughout the outlook period.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
====================================
Thursday: HIGH
Friday: HIGH
Saturday: HIGH
alright... Gnite. My pillow wants me now...
Quoting Levi32:


Yeah, but it's hard to tell whether the shutting down of the monsoon contributes to the impact on the Atlantic, or if the Atlantic mostly responds to the ENSO itself.


I kind of think it's atleast both, plus the effects warmer Arabian Sea plays into the dust..another inhibitor.
I wish PSD Reanalysis offered correlations to Atlantic basin ACE. Guess monthly hurricane total will have to do.
96P taking on the shape of a shrimp.


Quoting Skyepony:
When the water is cooler in the the Arabian sea..

1. More moisture is present because it's raining &

2. Cooler sea has cooler air above that gets swept over the hot land of Africa causing further instability & enhanced waves..


Sandra..




Sandra is not looking to good now due to increasing shear.
Where is Sandra on this shear image....
looks like 20-30kts of shear over Sandra.


Yet the BOM has Sandra intensifying up to a Cat 2 in 24hrs.



TXPS26 KNES 130012
TCSWSP

A. 19P (SANDRA)

B. 12/2332Z

C. 23.3S

D. 161.5E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. TOO WEAK

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...SHEAR PATTERN GT 1.25 DEG FROM CONVECTION YEILDS A DT
OF 0.0. MET = 3.0. PT = 2.5. FT IS BASED ON RAPID WEAKENING AND IS
JUSTIFIED BY AVERAGE DT BEING LT 1.0 OVER PAST 6 HRS. THIS WILL BE THE
FINAL BULLETIN UNLESS SYSTEM REGENERATES.


I. ADDL POSITIONS

12/1845Z 22.0S 161.3E SSMIS


...GUILLOT

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #3
TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDRA, CATEGORY ONE
3:01 PM EST March 13 2013
===========================================

TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDRA, CATEGORY 1, is situated over the central Coral Sea and is moving to the south. The latest forecasting guidance suggests a weak category 1 system will continue tracking south over the next 24 hours. It is then expected to re-intensify into a system with category 2 impacts during Thursday afternoon as it approaches Lord Howe Island.

Very rough seas, heavy swells and abnormally high tides are expected to develop about Lord Howe Island during Thursday and persist into Friday. This may lead to beach erosion.

Gales with damaging gusts to about 60 knots are expected to develop on Lord Howe Island during Thursday. Destructive wind gusts up to 80 knots will then possibly develop late Thursday.

Areas of heavy rain which may lead to flash flooding are also expected to develop over Lord Howe Island during Thursday and persist into Friday.

Tropical Cyclone Warnings
=============================

A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for Lord Howe Island
Quoting Skyepony:
96P taking on the shape of a shrimp.








After mulling it over a bit in my head, I believe this is the most inactive four-year period for United States landfalls since 1990-1993. A total of 8 named storms have hit the US during the most recent 2009-2012 period (Claudette, Bonnie, Don, Irene, Lee, Beryl, Debby, and Isaac; Sandy doesn't count because she wasn't an actual hurricane), whereas a total of 5 struck the US during the previous period (1990-1993). Bonnie and Don were barely tropical cyclones at US landfall, so if we exclude them, that brings the tally up to 6 during this period. Pretty remarkable, but not without historical precedent. In addition to the aforementioned period, the 1970s were also relatively inactive US landfall wise, with only 5 such landfalls from 1972-1975.
Quoting KoritheMan:
After mulling it over a bit in my head, I believe this is the most inactive four-year period for United States landfalls since 1990-1993. A total of 8 named storms have hit the US during the most recent 2009-2012 period (Claudette, Bonnie, Don, Irene, Lee, Beryl, Debby, and Isaac; Sandy doesn't count because she wasn't an actual hurricane), whereas a total of 5 struck the US during the previous period (1990-1993). Bonnie and Don were barely tropical cyclones at US landfall, so if we exclude them, that brings the tally up to 6 during this period. Pretty remarkable, but not without historical precedent. In addition to the aforementioned period, the 1970s were also relatively inactive US landfall wise, with only 5 such landfalls from 1972-1975.


The difference is the two other periods you mentioned had low tropical activity period, whilst the recent U.S. hurricane drought has occurred amidst a rather active period in the Atlantic overall.

And please, Sandy counts as a hurricane landfall and always will, even if not officially.

Quoting Levi32:


The difference is the two other periods you mentioned had low tropical activity period, whilst the recent U.S. hurricane drought has occurred amidst a rather active period in the Atlantic overall.

Yeah, there's that too. Makes me wonder if there's not some sort of unforeseen climatic signal that's altering the mean Atlantic storm track, related to AGW or otherwise.


Quoting Levi32:

And please, Sandy counts as a hurricane landfall and always will, even if not officially.


As much as Ida does.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advisory
TROPICAL LOW 14U
4:47 PM EST March 13 2013
=========================================

At 4:00 PM EST, Tropical Low (997 hPa) located at 12.3S 144.4E or 130 km east northeast of Lockhart River and 535 km north northwest of Cairns has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots. The low is reported as moving east southeast at 13 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 13.3S 147.1E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 14.3S 149.6E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
48 HRS: 16.3S 154.0E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)
72 HRS: 18.2S 155.1E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Tropical Cyclone)

Additional Information
========================
T2.0 based on poorly defined wrap of 0.3 to 0.5 over the past 6 hours with generally moderate convection. MET and PAT agree. The system lies in a region of northwest shear, though movement to the east southeast should result light system-relative shear over the next 2 to 3 days. Dry air on the southern side may also result in slowed development if it entrains into the system center.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #15
TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDRA, CATEGORY ONE (17F)
18:00 PM FST March 12 2013
=========================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Sandra (990 hPa) located at 24.6S 161.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots. Position good based on multi-spectral visible imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Gale Force Winds
================
120 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
210 NM from the center in southern semi-circle
90 NM from the center elsewhere

Deep convection has decreased significantly in past 24 hours with overall organization deteriorating. Low level circulation center exposed. System lies in a high sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 25C. SANDRA tracking along the western periphery of the subtropical ridge positioned to the east.

Dvorak analysis based on shear pattern with low level circulation center about 66NM from dense overcast, yielding DT=2.0, PT=2.0, and MET=2.5. Final Dvorak number based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/3.0/W2.0/24 HRS

Most models agree on a southward movement with gradual weakening.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 26.9S 161.6E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)
24 HRS: 29.3S 161.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Cyclone)

This is the final tropical cyclone advisory from RSMC Nadi.. next advisory will be handled by TCWC Wellington at 14:30 PM UTC..
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:

I find that forecast map interesting. They expect a decoupled cyclone to intensify back to a Cat 2 before Lord Howe Island?
good morning folks!....................
not much going on today in the southland huh...
7-day for the Tampa Bay area..........
Quoting Neapolitan:
In my long experience dealing with climate change, I've found one of the most common denialist tactics is to repeatedly ask, "If you believe the planet is warming, what are you doing about it?". Now, I--and others--have answered that question dozens, perhaps hundreds, of times. I myself have gone into great detail on numerous occasions with details about my lifestyle, my carbon footprint, my own conservation efforts, and so on. And every time I've done so--literally every time--the immediate denialist response has been, "You know, if you really thought climate change was happening, you'd do more." So it wasn't too long before I realized that the question was almost always being asked as a distraction, and very seldom was it asked in earnest. And since I figured that out, I've responded to it with decreasing frequency.

The thing is, if a Michael Mann or a Kevin Trenberth or a Grant Foster or a James Hansen or a Jeff Masters or a Bill McKibben does something that adds to climate change--takes a ride in a jumbo jet, say, or forgets to turn off the light when leaving the house one morning, or sets the office thermostat to 72 instead of 76 one July afternoon--that does nothing to throw the science of climate change into doubt. Nothing. There are many who will jump up and down, shout "Gotcha!!!", and claim that it does, but that doesn't make it so. So repeatedly asking a supporter of climate change theory to explain what they do to combat that change is nothing but a disingenuous--and, let's face it, very unoriginal--ploy to get them to admit to doing something that creates CO2. And for that reason, I--and many others--refuse to waste any further time answering it. We've simply got far more important things to do...


I am so glad your so smart and arrogant!
Now, I can have a good day!
Morning everyone!

Quoting indianrivguy:
Morning everyone!


Evening Mate. I see Sheldon is still his arrogant best.
Opps did I say that out loud
Morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie. 44 degrees with a wind chill of 38 here. Woke up to no internet, glad it's back on now.

Breakfast's on the sideboard. French toast with syrup, bacon and eggs, orange juice. Enjoy!
Evening Aussie.. didn't see you about mate.

757. aislinnpaps 6:36 AM EDT on March 13, 2013

mmmm bacon :)

Good morning to all,evening Aussie.

After the dry weather that Puerto Rico has been thru for the past few weeks, some relief is comming by the weekend but will not be suficient to turn the deficit of rainfall that PR has been thru so far this year into a surplus.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
547 AM AST WED MAR 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC TOMORROW. A
TROUGH WILL CROSS THROUGH THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE HIGHER PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TAIL OF A WEAK JET AND A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THROUGH THE AREA EARLY IN
THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. MOISTURE AT 600 MB REMAINS BELOW 20 PERCENT
UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.

AT LOWER LEVELS...CLOUDS HAVE FILLED IN OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT
BUT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH HEATING DURING THE DAY. A SHEAR LINE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY AND BRING INCREASED
MOISTURE WITH A LITTLE MORE CHANCE OF RAIN...AND AS HIGH PRESSURE
FILLS IN JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA NEXT WEEK THE FLOW BECOMES
EASTERLY...LEAVING THE DISSIPATING BOUNDARY OVER OR NEARBY THE
AREA WITH MODEST MOISTURE.


&&

.DISCUSSION...THE MOST PROMINENT FEATURE ON THE RADAR THIS MORNING
WAS A FIRE BURNING ABOUT 5 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE AIRPORT.
SMOKE FROM THE FIRE COULD BE SEEN MOST OF THE NIGHT AND EXTENDED
AS FAR WEST SOUTHWEST AS GUAYANILLA UNDER THE INVERSION BASED NEAR
4800 FEET AND THE CLOUDS. ABOVE THE INVERSION...TOPPED OUT AT NEARLY
6400 FEET...THE AIR WAS MOSTLY DRY. THIS HAS KEPT THE CLOUD LAYER
QUITE SHALLOW AND INCAPABLE OF CREATING SHOWERS. AS THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT APPROACHES AND THE SHEAR LINE MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH
CUBA...SHOWERS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO GENERATE...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL
FORM BETWEEN 4 TO 5 THOUSAND FEET FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THE
NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. THE NEXT SHEAR LINE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
MOVE INTO THE LOCAL AREA ON SATURDAY AND STALL...LEAVING SOMEWHAT
BETTER MOISTURE AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. BETTER
MOISTURE IS FOUND IN THE GFS SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND AFTER NEXT
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE TAIL END OF A STRONG JET AND ANOTHER
SURFACE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BKN-OVC AT AROUND FL050 EXPECTED UNTIL
13/13Z...FEW-SCT AFTER THAT. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 10 TO 15
KTS WITH SOME SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AND A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH DIMINISHING SWELL
FROM THE NORTH NORTHEAST. MODELS DO NOT SHOW SEAS BELOW 7 FEET
FOR MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES UNTIL AFTER 8
PM AST FRIDAY. HIGH SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY AND WILL CONSIDER EXTENDING THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY BEFORE
7 AM AST TO INCLUDE THURSDAY THROUGH 6 PM AST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 71 80 71 / 0 0 0 0
STT 84 70 83 71 / 0 0 0 20
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Morning, everyone. Evening, Aussie. 44 degrees with a wind chill of 38 here. Woke up to no internet, glad it's back on now.

Breakfast's on the sideboard. French toast with syrup, bacon and eggs, orange juice. Enjoy!

Good Evening to you and TWPR and of course IRG
I'll take a big glass of Orange Juice thanks. If it freshly squeezed?
Everyone have a wonderful Wednesday. Aussie, have a wonderful Thursday!
Quoting AussieStorm:

Good Evening to you and TWPR and of course IRG
I'll take a big glass of Orange Juice thanks. If it freshly squeezed?


Freshly squeezed just this morning!
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I believe that what bappit is saying that no one individual's efforts will help to mitigate the CO2 on a global scale. When someone asks, "Well, what are you doing to mitigate the CO2?" is trolling. (Look up the definition of "blog troll")

"IF you are big into believing that man is 100% cause . then you should set an example to people who dont completely buy into it !" - This is another trollish comment. Setting examples for safe flying, swimming or driving habits are not based upon if you believe in them or not. You may not believe in them but when you do not practice them you are putting everyone within your reach at risk. When you do this on a global scale you are putting everyone on the globe at risk. .. Have you never reasoned through the thought that one should always err on the side of caution? Do you understand the ramifications when you do not do so and more than just you are being put at risk?


Asking these kinds of questions also can be a form of logical fallacy- tu quoque. Link
Good morning everyone, evening Aussie.

Got a dusting to a half an inch of snow last night. More can be expected Friday night into Saturday and early next week for me. This time last year it was in the 60s, 70s, and even 80s, sigh.
Good Morning from C FL.

Say hi to the Upper 80's and low 90's next week for highs in Orlando.
Link
Quoting LargoFl:
7-day for the Tampa Bay area..........


Yeah, those temps are for right on the coast due to the cooler ocean temps but inland temps are going to push 90 all next week.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Good Morning from C FL.

Say hi to the Upper 80's and low 90's next week for highs in Orlando.
Link
good morning, its chilly here this morning but i do hope your right, im getting a lil weary of winter,i need the warm sunshine back..come on spring.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Yeah, those temps are for right on the coast due to the cooler ocean temps but inland temps are going to push 90 all next week.


It's chilly here in Fort Myers this morning 54° but we have a warm up coming and will see upper 80's by the end of next week. BTW we were forcast for 60% chance of showers yesterday. I received a whopping .02 inch :(
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING.

* AFFECTED AREA... INLAND VOLUSIA... NORTHERN LAKE... ORANGE...
SEMINOLE... SOUTHERN BREVARD... OSCEOLA... INDIAN RIVER...
OKEECHOBEE... ST. LUCIE... MARTIN... COASTAL VOLUSIA...
SOUTHERN LAKE... NORTHERN BREVARD.

* WIND...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE FORECAST WITH
HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS.

* HUMIDITY...MINIMUM AFTERNOON VALUES AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT
WITH 4 TO 6 HOURS BELOW 35 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL LIKELY OCCUR
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

$$
still winter in the northeast states huh......
Quoting FtMyersgal:


It's chilly here in Fort Myers this morning 54° but we have a warm up coming and will see upper 80's by the end of next week. BTW we were forcast for 60% chance of showers yesterday. I received a whopping .02 inch :(


Only .22 here. I guess it's better than nothing.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Only .22 here. I guess it's better than nothing.


Yeah I suppose you are right but it sure is dry down here. I know this is our dry season but we have fire alerts every day now.
whew still cold in Georgia........
Tampa 7-day.......................
Gulf & SW Atlantic sea surface temps.

Good morning everyone,

I just pulled together the latest score card with all your thoughts, thanks to all
If anyone else wants to tell me theirs, just go to my blog and I'll add you in

check it out..

click image for larger view...
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Good morning everyone,

I just pulled together the latest score card with all your thoughts, thanks to all
If anyone else want's to tell me theirs, just go to my blog and I'll add you in

check it out..

click image for larger view...


I'm going 17 9 4.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Good morning everyone,

I just pulled together the latest score card with all your thoughts, thanks to all
If anyone else wants to tell me theirs, just go to my blog and I'll add you in

check it out..

click image for larger view...

Hey Max. How about a forecast on how many Tornadoes this year? I say 1500.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Good morning everyone,

I just pulled together the latest score card with all your thoughts, thanks to all
If anyone else wants to tell me theirs, just go to my blog and I'll add you in

check it out..

click image for larger view...
Amazing I like it a lot.excellent job.Have a great Wednesday everyone and enjoy it greatly.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Hey Max. How about a forecast on how many Tornadoes this year? I say 1500.


well, I won't be doing that one... maybe TA13x would...
Quoting allancalderini:
Amazing I like it a lot.excellent job.Have a great Wednesday everyone and enjoy it greatly.


sure, same to you! :)
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
CHILD ABDUCTION EMERGENCY
WEST VIRGINIA STATE POLICE
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
742 AM EDT WED MAR 13 2013

THIS IS AN IMPORTANT ANNOUNCEMENT REGARDING AN ABDUCTED CHILD IN
ROCK CAVE IN UPSHUR COUNTY. THE WEST VIRGINIA STATE POLICE ARE
LOOKING FOR SHAINA NICOLE TENNEY...A WHITE FEMALE 16 YEARS OLD 5
FEET 2 INCHES TALL AND 225 POUNDS WITH BLACK HAIR AND HAZEL EYES.
THE CHILD WAS LAST SEEN AT A RESIDENCE LOCATED IN ROCK CAVE WEST
VIRGINIA AND IS BELIEVED TO BE IN EXTREME DANGER. THE CHILD WAS
LAST SEEN WEARING BLACK STRETCH PANTS...GRAY SHIRT WITH A BLACK OR
GRAY HOODIE AND WHITE TENNIS SHOES. AUTHORITIES ADVISE THE CHILD
WAS LIKELY ABDUCTED BY A FAMILY MEMBER BY THE NAME OF MARGEL
TENNEY WHO IS 5 FEET 8 INCHES TALL AND 200 POUNDS WITH BLUE EYES
AND WEARING A BLACK SWEATSHIRT AND BLUE JEANS WITH RED WING BOOTS.

THEY MAY BE TRAVELING IN A 2003 TAN FORD TAURUS... WITH THE
LICENSE PLATE NUMBER 2LW 179. THEY WERE LAST SEEN TRAVELING ON
WEST VIRGINIA ROUTE 20 SOUTHBOUND NEAR THE UPSHUR AND WEBSTER
COUNTY LINE. IF YOU HAVE ANY INFORMATION ON THE WHEREABOUTS OF
SHAINA NICOLE TENNEY PLEASE CONTACT THE WEST VIRGINIA STATE POLICE
BUCKHANNON DETACHMENT AT 304-473-4200 OR THE WEST VIRGINIA STATE
POLICE... YOUR LOCAL 911 OR *SP ON YOUR CELL PHONE.

$$
Anyone heard from Patrap?
Quoting AussieStorm:

I didn't say deaths from Tornadoes.
idk...I have to go, see ya.

Thanks for those who participated...I'll get some more hopefully
Dang, Most of Florida and Alabama have red flag warnings.

Quoting AussieStorm:

Hey Max. How about a forecast on how many Tornadoes this year? I say 1500.


I'm going 950 as I don't think this upcoming season is going to be that active. This drought will likely be the main player on where we see tornadoes this year. I suspect we will see some big outbreaks from Dixie Alley up to Ill & Indiana. The traditional Tornado Alley could be quiet this year.

I find the blog post to be a very interesting article on the info that appears to be reasonable for research. I have to wonder how much is natural variability though (we know there is some variability due to natural cycles). I would definately be more interested in seeing more information on this if anyone has one, can they WU mail me.

-MWS
Quoting AussieStorm:
Dang, Most of Florida and Alabama have red flag warnings.



After an extremely wet rainy season last year from May to October it's been very DRY ever since.
Here's a nice write up from NWS ILM about Superstorm 1993 - hard to believe it was 20 years today. Great learning experience for me as I was a brand new, bright-eyed met student at Millersville. Gettin old !!

Link
hey guys how are you

Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Good morning everyone,

I just pulled together the latest score card with all your thoughts, thanks to all
If anyone else wants to tell me theirs, just go to my blog and I'll add you in

check it out..

click image for larger view...


hey add my my numbers for 2013 are

TS H MH
17 11 4
Lets see the how the warming alarmists spin this - ready, set, go !!


Link
Good morning everyone. Well the front came through the keys yesterday and ruined my chance to see the comet. Couldn't even see the sun for the cloud cover. Hopefully tonight will be clear. Our Temps have dropped. I awoke to 68 degrees and now it is 66 even with the sun rising. Glad I brought my sweater with me. Have a good day all.
Quoting Chucktown:
Lets see the how the warming alarmists spin this - ready, set, go !!


Link
Shorter: Joanne Nova proves once again that she still doesn't understand the difference between short-term noise--Nova's "cooling phase"--and long-term signal. That's too bad; her tens of ardent followers would be better served by someone who actually gets science, and isn't confused by the basics.

Anyway, just for JoNo:

warming

BTW: providing solid evidence that a contrarian non-climatologist doesn't understand science isn't "spin"; it's just the truth.
796. VR46L
Quoting Chucktown:
Lets see the how the warming alarmists spin this - ready, set, go !!


Link


Too Funny !!


I suspect they will try and swat it away !
Quoting kwgirl:
Good morning everyone. Well the front came through the keys yesterday and ruined my chance to see the comet. Couldn't even see the sun for the cloud cover. Hopefully tonight will be clear. Our Temps have dropped. I awoke to 68 degrees and now it is 66 even with the sun rising. Glad I brought my sweater with me. Have a good day all.
66 in the morning here is short sleeve weather!.We take advantage of that up here and go out on a morning stroll/jog.Nice weather indeed.Unfortunately we only get those morning lows if highs that day are going to be in the 80's or 90's.
From me!:)
Quoting Chucktown:
Lets see the how the warming alarmists spin this - ready, set, go !!


Link


No spin is needed. The lady told us she cherry-picked her data- maybe hoping she wouldn't be called on it if she admitted it herself.
Quoting Chucktown:
Lets see the how the warming alarmists spin this - ready, set, go !!


Link


Ridiculous 8yr cherry picked data and summary..
I'm not making any predictions on hurricane season until about May.I need to see how conditions set up.Especially since the nio regions have been going in and out of warm/cool.Remember last year when most people were predicting a average to below average hurricane season?.It looked like a el nio would develop but instead it did a 180 and we got more storms than anybody anticipated.I do like hurricane seasons like these because they throw people off,and shows we still have lots to lean.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I agree with you that one should be willing to practice what they preach. You have no idea of what I do on a personal basis and your asking me what I do by means of a blog sight is bit pointless, do you not agree? I could tell that I ride a bicycle everywhere I go, but I do not.

Here is what I "preach":

1. Consume less.

2. Plan trips for the shortest route and combine as many errands as possible into one trip.

3. Recycle all that I can.

4. Repair what is repairable instead of discarding.

5. Donate what is still unusable but I no longer need or want.

6. Adjust your thermostat.

7. Keep your tires properly inflated.

8. Keep your vehicle(s) properly tuned.

9. Drive within the speed limit.

10. Replace your car with a more mileage efficient car when it your car is due to be replaced.

11. Replace incandescent light bulbs with CFL or LED bulbs.

12. Wash clothes in the coldest water possible.

13. Wash a full load of clothes at a time without over loading the washer.

14. Dry clothes no longer to get them dry.

15. Do not completely dry clothes that will be hung in a closet.

What do I actually practice? ALL of the above.

What do I plan to further do to lessen my carbon footprint? I am always looking for ways to further reduce my carbon footprint.

I find it very interesting that you that lower your carbon footprint even though you do not seem to believe there are reasons to do so in order to mitigate the CO2 emissions. Perhaps you have discovered what I have? When you do these things it saves you a lot of money! Should this be incentive to do so, then this is incentive enough.

I line dry my clothing, it doesn't require energy and the clothing lasts longer, plus it doesn't shrink my shirts which is a plus given my height (2 meters).

I haven't driven my car in almost two years. I take trains, busses and walk from transit stops. Most of my grocery shopping is done as part of my evening commute home. Plus, it forces me to walk 4-7 miles a day no matter the weather.

I do not drink soda or bottled water, I use tap water as it is very energy-intensive to transport fluids.

I keep the thermostat very low in winter.

My main carbon splurge is a room AC in the summer in the bedroom so I can sleep at night, but I only run it when I am home and it is an Energy Star unit. It takes a lot less energy to move heat than to create it.

My other carbon splurge is flying to see my elderly parents 3 times a year. Considering they live 1400 miles away and there is no good train service to there, I don't have much of an option. I am considering moving to the town where they live, my company has a branch office there and it is next to a train station so I could commute by rail there as well.

I seldom eat meat other than chicken. It takes a lot less feed to make a pound of chicken than it takes to make a pound of pork or beef, and less feed means less energy expended to grow that feed. I also eat small portions of chicken with each meal and emphasize veggies and carbs more.

I seldom eat fish. The options there are not very good - either deplete wild stocks or patronize aquaculture with all the inherent environmental issues that industry has shown. That is less about carbon and more about the well-being of the oceans.

Also, I eat little prepared/processed food. It takes energy to create those products as well, and your diet will be healthier. My main exception is canned tomatoes.

When possible, buy local produce. Grow some of your own if you have space for it. Donate surpluses to food banks.

I'm an AGW skeptic. I just abhorr wasteful behavior.

For all of the chest-thumping about AGW proponents not revealing what they are doing to reduce their carbon footprint, to me, if you believe in AGW, you need to actively work on your lifestyle and promote such as well as an example.

It is not a diversion to raise this issue. The world is full of people who talk the talk and don't walk the walk, be it environmentalism, Christianity or any other belief system. Al Gore comes to mind as Exhibit A.
803. MahFL
In some parts of the USA, your not allowed to line dry, normally housing asociation rules. It's regarded as being "poor" to have to line dry.
Quoting AGWcreationists:
It is not a diversion to raise this issue.
It isn't a diversion to bring it up once. When it becomes a diversionary tactic is when it's brought up repeatedly for the dual purposes of both sidetracking the conversation away from what's happening, and trying to jump out of the closet with a "Gotcha!!!".
Quoting AGWcreationists:
The world is full of people who talk the talk and don't walk the walk, be it environmentalism, Christianity or any other belief system.
Of course, religion is by definition based upon personal faith, not evidence. Climate science, on the other hand, is based strictly on empirical science, so your analogy fails, I'm afraid.
Quoting MahFL:
In some parts of the USA, your not allowed to line dry, normally housing asociation rules. It's regarded are being "poor" to have to line dry.

I line dry within the house. But this country really does need to re-examine a lot of its concepts. Being 'rich' often equates to being wasteful.
Quoting Neapolitan:
It isn't a diversion to bring it up once. When it becomes a diversionary tactic is when it's brought up repeatedly for the dual purposes of both sidetracking the conversation away from what's happening, and trying to jump out of the closet with a "Gotcha!!!".Of course, religion is by definition based upon personal faith, not evidence. Climate science, on the other hand, is based strictly on empirical science, so your analogy fails, I'm afraid.

Hardly. The underlying concepts of hypocrisy and double standards are the same in both cases.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm not making any predictions on hurricane season until about May.I need to see how conditions set up.Especially since the ni�o regions have been going in and out of warm/cool.Remember last year when most people were predicting a average to below average hurricane season?.It looked like a el ni�o would develop but instead it did a 180 and we got more storms than anybody anticipated.I do like hurricane seasons like these because they throw people off,and shows we still have lots to lean.


good point, but look people will still do it, and plus there is no harm done for doing so, more so if they do updates on there forecast as time draws nearer and if the numbers change, it will be interesting to see how they have changed and the reasons behind that change. don't you think?
I see "Gotcha" is the new word today boys and girls..I'm having Sarah Palin flashbacks..
Quoting KoritheMan:

Yeah, there's that too. Makes me wonder if there's not some sort of unforeseen climatic signal that's altering the mean Atlantic storm track, related to AGW or otherwise.


Quoting Levi32:

And please, Sandy counts as a hurricane landfall and always will, even if not officially.


As much as Ida does.

Sandy retained a warm core all the way up to landfall. For all intents and purposes, it was a hurricane.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Moved to new blog -->
Quoting AGWcreationists:

Hardly. The underlying concepts of hypocrisy and double standards are the same in both cases.
No, they're not.

If I'm attempting to sway you to join my religion by telling you that if you do, you'll never desire fast food again, you're going to be very put out if you see me in a McDonalds stuffing a QPWC down my throat. That's because by doing so, I've just disproved the very basis of my argument to you.

OTOH, If I'm attempting to convince you to understand and support climate change theory by showing you that the planet is warming and the ice is melting, it would be illogical for you to ignore that evidence simply because you saw me driving around town in a Hummer; regardless of what I do or don't do, that warming and melting is still happening.

Can you not see the difference?
little clipper