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Arctic sea ice melting season begins

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:24 AM GMT on April 06, 2008

The annual Arctic melting season has begun. We've just passed the Spring Equinox, so the North Pole is now in 24-hour daylight. Will the melting of Arctic sea ice this year surpass last year's record? Well, we have a greater areal extent of ice over the Arctic this month compared to April of last year, thanks to some cool Arctic temperatures this winter. In particular, the ice in the Bering Straight between Alaska and Russia extends quite a bit further south than in 2007. This extra ice will likely delay the melting season a bit this year, giving some hope that we won't surpass last year's record melt. However, if weather similar to last summer occurs--unusually clear skies and high pressure over the Arctic--this extra ice will not help much, because it is all thin, first-year ice. It is the thick, 2-9 year old ice that is most able to resist summer melting, and the amount of old multi-year ice is only about half of what it was in 2007. This is apparent from images taken by the QuikSCAT satellite, which carries the SeaWinds scatterometer. This instrument emits a pulse of microwave energy that bounces off the ice and returns to the satellite. Old, multi-year ice is thicker, and reflects a different amount of microwave energy back to the satellite than thin ice, resulting in a whiter image. Thin, first-year ice appears a darker grey. It is apparent from Figure 1 that we have only about half of the old, multi-year ice that we had last year. In fact, thin first-year ice extends past the North Pole, raising the distinct possibility that this year's melt will allow one to sail a ship all the way to the North Pole in September, for the first time since humans began testing Arctic waters with ships in 1497. In addition, a large region of the old ice north of Alaska is highly fractured, making it vulnerable to melting.


Figure 1. QuikSCAT images of the Arctic from April 4, 2007 and April 4, 2008. The boundary of old, multi-year ice is marked in yellow, and 2008 has about half the old ice of 2007. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS/ORA.

How did we lose so much old ice in the past year?
Part of the lost old ice melted during the record-breaking melt season of 2007, which was fueled both by global warming and a natural (but unusual) sunny summer. Another big chunk of old ice was lost due to natural wind patterns between September 2007 and March 2008. An animation of the sea ice available from Environment Canada's sea ice page (click on "Updated QuikScat animation") reveals that strong winds pushed large amounts of old ice out of the Arctic southward along the east coast of Greenland. So, we can't blame the melting of the Arctic sea ice entirely on global warming--natural weather patterns also played a significant role.

The forecast
It's impossible to guess what the dominant Arctic weather pattern will be this summer, and what level of melting we will get. With the loss of so much old ice over the past year, though, even an average summer has the potential to melt much more ice this summer compared to last summer--all the way to the North Pole. There's also a good chance that we'll see the fabled Northwest Passage open up again, since most of the ice along the Passage is young, first-year ice. We'll just have to wait and see how the summer unfolds.

Jeff Masters

Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

FLASH!!!!:::: All WUBA severe Blog Posts are manned and Ready. !!!::::END






!!!THIS IS NOT A DRILL!!!




CIMSS shows low level vorticity increasing in the gulf and becoming more symmetrical.
I just got on site and saw that blob in the GOM. Thanks for the update on your posts. I believe it bears watching. Though here in South Florida we sure could use the rain. Just a little early for my taste.
Get a TACTICAL team on the GOM Disturbance,,.maybe some of them wunderground Guys in the back room




Call Up SAC..maybe get the SR-71 for a afternoon/evening Imaging run across the Blob with the scatterometer too.
Zoom to GOM 4-panel Water Vapor Loop Link
rain totals last 12 hrs.

502. CatastrophicDL 4:58 PM EDT on April 07, 2008
CIMSS shows low level vorticity increasing in the gulf and becoming more symmetrical.

This is an upper level feature not at all close to being tropical.Could actually stay to our south as developing low pressure futher north may keep the MCS to the south.
Ok my intentions are not to hype this blob up at all but I was just curious as to what is preventing it from becoming tropical/subtropical? I thought the Gulf's waters were warm enough and shear doesn't look horribly unfavorable. I guess it needs a closed circulation first to have a chance. Please correct me if im mistaken. :~)
Hey SouthDadeFish, good question! As you can see here, the shear is 40-50 knots which is unfavorable for development. Also, you can see here the environment that its in is dry, again not favorable. However, it has sustained for a long(ish) time :). And yes, it has to have a closed circulation to be even declared a T.D.
Everyone have a good evening and I'll BBT.....
Oh thanks. I probably should have checked recent shear maps lol. I was going by what I saw last night, which was near 20-30 knots. Also, that is a lot of dry air. Thanks for your insight HurricaneGeek, it is greatly appreciated.
The cell now nearing the TX/OK border has been given the honor of being the first tornado warned cell of the day.

It does appear to have a strong but broad circulation and it will need to condense and become more define/organized if it is to develop a tornado. The rotation is located west of Electra, TX.

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN WICHITA COUNTY IN NORTHERN TEXAS...
EASTERN WILBARGER COUNTY IN NORTHERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 433 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO ANYTIME 5
MILES WEST OF HARROLD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. TAKE YOUR
TORNADO PRECAUTIONS NOW!
LOL, yeah it's always good to check... I'm glad I could help. :)
In Arkansas - Fear of the unknown
WU severe page
Arian, while I know it isn't tropical, isn't 850mb lower level? CIMSS does show strong vorticity at 250mb, nothing at mid-level, but then vorticity at 850mb. Can't a storm have surface or low level circultation without being tropical?
Mid level shear is only 15-20 kts. With higher SST, storms have formed in this shear scene.

Tom Terry is so avoiding the blob..lol.


Yikes...
stl something wicked this way comes
Wow! what a hook echo with that thunderstorm accompanied by the warning. Link
Michael you beat me to it :-p It is quite an impressive cell.
Wow! The hook echo is curving inwards! Looks like a fish hook.

AT 454 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 1 MILE SOUTHEAST
OF HARROLD. RADAR SHOWS THAT STORM SCALE ROTATION HAS INCREASED
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH A TORNADO POSSIBLE AT ANYTIME. THIS STORM IS
MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH AND SHOULD MOVE JUST NORTH OF ELECTRA. TAKE
YOUR TORNADO PRECAUTIONS NOW!
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
456 PM CDT MON APR 7 2008

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN WICHITA AND EASTERN WILBARGER COUNTIES...

AT 456 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTER REPORTED A MULTI VORTEX TORNADO NEAR
COUNTY LINE ROAD AND HIGHWAY 287 WEST OF ELECTRA. TAKE COVER NOW!
THIS TORNADO IS MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH...TOWARD ELECTRA.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE ELECTRA...HARROLD...HAYNESVILLE
AND OKLAUNION.

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO THREAT... THIS STORM LIKELY CONTAINS
DAMAGING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS OR LARGER.
Wunderground has max hail size as 2.5 inches with that cell too. Wouldn't want to get hit in the head with hail that size
Like webcam image (I don't know where the cam is located but I do know that this is the cell we're watching). In fact I'm not even sure this is live updating but this is the storm i believe.

Link

From Wikipedia:

"The United States Census Bureau counted Electra's population as 3,168 at the 2000 census and estimated it to be 2,891 as of 2006."

Hope they are all prepared.
Based on the motion of the tornado signature on Base Relative velocity, the strongest part of the rotation looks to pass north of Electra, passing closer to Haynesville. It will likely cross SR 240 at some point.

Uhoh... The last few frames of the radar loop show that the tornado has shifted slightly SE... If that shift were to continue it would bring it dangerously close to Wichita Falls, with a population of over 100,000.
This looks to be a exceptionally powerful tornado, Maybe an EF-4?
area of disturb weather e gom disapating rapidly
cells in oak fallen apart
Cant believe that thing is still out there!
New cells are popping up southwest of Witchita Falls.
heheheheh
Good one Gulf !
Meantime, in the central tropical Atlantic, some very decent showers developing in the area north of the ITCZ. Creeping north all the time, and will obviously tend to cool the SST in that area as well, between the equator and 10 N.
boy, zooming in and rocking the loop, its looking like a "disturbance" if not getting close to a depression.

ok perhaps not, but surely we have chased less impressive blobs, this one is unusually organized.




Station 42362 - Brutus - Green Canyon 158

Wind Direction (WDIR): N ( 10 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 21.4 kts
Water Temperature (WTMP): 78.3 F



The NAM is off on this one. The GFS kinda hit it but has been iffy.
540. beell
Just never know what you're gonna find when you click on a weather map. Was checkin' on dewpoints around the tor-watch area...
Link of the day
Forecast for Hell Link
Rubottom OK????!!!

Outstanding beell

That is the newest best station, to be accessed and referenced constantly for the rest of the year.
543. beell
maybe it's french Patrap Rue Bo tome
Meantime, in the central tropical Atlantic, some very decent showers developing in the area north of the ITCZ. Creeping north all the time, and will obviously tend to cool the SST in that area as well, between the equator and 10 N.
Action: |



Well I dont know about that but as the ITCZ moves north it might actually start to moisten the area, given that the ITCZ stays this active until it moves that north. In the mean time we should start to watch the African coast because those SST's are hot and will jump start any wave that pops off.
Dang when did hell freeze over??

Saturday Night(Hell MI)
Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain and snow showers. Lows 29 to 33. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.
snow
Dat will work Cher..LOL
The cell west of Holliday TX is getting sheared and may be attempting to develop a hook.
Agreed, Chaser.
A ,lot of showers there for April. Last couple of years it was pretty dry out there.
549. DDR
Hey pottery how are you?
Someones gonna get hit hard.
Link
551. DDR
Goodnight everyone,what do you guys make of this area of cloudiness in the Central atlantic? Possibly the seasons forst tropical wave?



The MCC in the gulf seems to be going poof...Most likely will spread light to moderate rain over floirda.
Not Good....Link
I'm excellent ! DDR. Looking to the East like yourself.
How are you keeping?
DDR.... those storms are the ITCZ but they seem to be getting stronger and more north.
A wall cloud has been reported with the largest cell (just south of Wichita Falls) by a participant in the spotter network.

Wall Cloud
Time: 2008-04-08 00:13:00 UTC
557. DDR
I'm fine thanks for asking,did you get some rain in central today?
Two rotating storms on the ground...big?
Ouch...



S0 74 dBZ 36,000 ft. 63 kg/m² 100% 100% >4.00 in. 20 knots WSW (255)
6 mm rain in Central today. 20 mm for the month so far. The place is strangely green ! Long may it last.
Tornado's are possible with these storms and strong ones at that...Link
Hey can someone help me im having trouble posting images.
Toto get under the bed right now.
564. DDR
click image next to italics and paste your link in the box
Yeah I know that, but Image shack is showing an error box when I type in the URL.
why arn't there warnings (tornado) with these
Good evening, everyone!
I post images by typing this code in (put the URL in between the quotes, like "http://...."):

<img src="">

Incidently, that is how WU recommends to post images (see Dr. Masters' blog tutorial under his recommended links on the right side). It doesn't even mention the image button.
DDr and Stormchaser. Looking at the animated links of the cloud area in the central Atlantic. Movement of the cloudmass is still north and east a bit. What is creating this westerly wind at low elevations now ??
...noticed that.
Evening, Dude 77. Want to comment on my last question ?
hi all...OKC radar had reflectivity max out at 75. I never saw that happen before.
Nasti nasti cell headed towards Tulsa. VIL's been pulsin' upwards of 65-70 so far, MRV showin' rotation about two thirds of the way down. OUCH.

Link
So what's everyone talking about with this blob in GOM? I'm on iPhone so no access to loops. Can anyone post a good image of this thing for me? Much appreciated. Thanks!
Nowcast as of 7:55 PM CDT on April 7, 2008
Now
regional weather discussion... at 755 PM... a stationary front extended across Oklahoma... from just south of Tulsa... west to Guthrie... Clinton... and on west into the Texas Panhandle. A dryline was over the southeast Texas Panhandle... and extended south toward San Angelo. Warm and humid air covered the region south of the front and east of the dryline. Vertical wind profiles within the warm airmass will support severe weather into the night... although the amount of moisture will somewhat limit overall coverage and intensity of storms. Through 10 PM... the main focus of storm development will be the stationary front... mainly east of Clinton. Additional storms will be possible from the Wichita Falls Texas area... northeast toward the Oklahoma City Metro area. The strongest storms will be capable of producing large hail... and very heavy rain. Strong winds and isolated tornadoes will also be possible along and south of the warm front. The main area of storm development is expected to shift slowly toward the north and east later tonight... mainly affecting central and north-central Oklahoma.
VIL's been pulsin' upwards of 65-70 so far

Could that include hail I wonder?
scwind...I don't think a VIL can approach the upper 60's without hail. I could be wrong, tho...
574. AWeatherLover 9:10 PM EDT on April 07, 2008
So what's everyone talking about with this blob in GOM? I'm on iPhone so no access to loops. Can anyone post a good image of this thing for me? Much appreciated. Thanks!

Here you go...MCC slowing going poof light rain if any in florida.

577. aquak9 1:12 AM GMT on April 08, 2008
scwind...I don't think a VIL can approach the upper 60's without hail. I could be wrong, tho...


I was just wondering...since the "L" stands for liquid
So what's everyone talking about with this blob in GOM? I'm on iPhone so no access to loops. Can anyone post a good image of this thing for me? Much appreciated. Thanks!

This is the lastest image of the ''blob'' (It has gone poof just west, of Florida)...

VIL Density as a Hail IndicatorLink

were way ahead in tornadoes this year
notice the big jumps in tornadic activity the beginning why didn't the other years have big jumps
I still have a LOT to learn, scwind. Thanks for making me dig a little deeper.

Link
it pretty well went poof right after sun went down
Please look before you post already posted pic of MCC.Some were even thinking invest lol earlier this afternoon.This was never even close to being tropical just an upper level feature.Upper level winds are blowing at 50kts through the gulf.Have to wait 2 months or so before we worry about anything tropical in the basin.
Baroclinic,it was/is..Link
that blob was a dry run
this has been only a test of the wunder blog
early warning system
Pirates and Bergs I Spect..

LOL Pat...
Thanks for the pic Adrian. I see what you mean about it fizzling out. I think we are all a bit antsy looking for something to watch. I guess it just means more rain in Florida. Anyone know about the state of drought here? Seems like all the rain we've had in the past couple weeks should have pretty well put an end to the drought but I'm not sure if lake level are still below the norm.
Good evening all

Seems like the blob watching has died down some.
April is way too early to get worked up over showers in the GOM
The GOM thing was the remnants of Karen 07..regenerated for a preview to 08.

COMING SOON, to a Gulf or Ocean near You!!!!!


Hurricane Season 2008!!!!
June 1






594. DDR
Pottery i have no idea,maybe it has a weak area of low pressure?
All of Florida is pretty much out of drought conditions...


thank god that we got all of that rain yesterday. It really helped us out big time.
572. scwindsaloft 8:04 PM CDT on April 07, 2008
hi all...OKC radar had reflectivity max out at 75. I never saw that happen before.



It can get higher than 75, which is the top of the scale that is usually displayed, but not actually the highest the radar can read; for example:



I have even seen it reach 80 or higher before (one time something like 110+ when a radar was on the fritz).
BLOB POOF ALERT!!! Thank God the rain didn't make it to Tampa again today. This saved my plans for tomorrow. Good call drak. Earlier I would have bet my life that it would have rained today but like you said, it didn't
".. Okay Joe, we are nearing the coast of Florida,
now heading on to a Left roll to come into Runway 15, now setting... HOLY MOLEY, LOOK AT THE BLOB IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO! ITS GOING TO BE A HURRICANE IN
AN HOUR, SCRUB THE LANDING!"

STS-107
all4: why didn't the other years have big jumps

The big tornado outbreaks are not frequent ... fortunately. The outbreak in early February this year was a scary day.
yes michael it is heavy that area has comenced refire with another area refire ne gom off yuctan
se wont let me modify
he made the blog a little wide if any one have not noted it yet
Ivan,

Is that you or Mo? LOL
popin meds passing out on keyboard
".. That blob, its going to poof.."
".. No! That blob is going to become a CAT 6.."
".. The Blob will become a TD in an hour, its written in stone.."
".. Tis here blob gone an done poofed.."
".. Now you see here, this Blob will do its own thing.."
".. Those clouds are Decressing, its dying!.."
".. Just Durinal Cycles, tonight its going to go strong.."
The Typical Day at Mission Control Center latley during Hurricane Season, apparently the CAPCOM found weatherunderground, and now NASA listens to them only.
Photobucket
LOL Ivan i hope you feel better soon after taking those meds.
The comments will be painful to read this summer if you guys hype that "blob".
I know lets put all our faith into the next three blobs that form in the gulf watch them intensively until they fizzle out with little surprise so that when hurricane season starts we think nothings going to form and murphey's law kicks in and some major hurricane catches everyone off gaurd

that actually doesn't sound to bad
what is this thing in the eastern far atlantic? is this the first wave of the 2008 season? there is some rotation near 10n 35w. if this is a wave then it is an ominous sign for the coming season.
looks like a couple more severe weather outbreaks this week,stay safe out there.
615. stoormfury 8:45 AM EDT on April 08, 2008
what is this thing in the eastern far atlantic? is this the first wave of the 2008 season? there is some rotation near 10n 35w. if this is a wave then it is an ominous sign for the coming season.


Not wanting to hype anything.......but wow that sure starting to look very tropical in formation......geeessssshhhhhhhhh.
Not much of a chance to develop with this kind of shear in front of it.
I would have to say that there are some very powerful waves with spin coming off of Africa now.
Morning Storm, thanks for the update. Caught some puny waves Sunday morning b/4 work...potential for some action next Monday 4/14 in the gomex - not sure why yet, but that's what the swell charts are forecasting. Relieved to say Polo season is over - I am sure the horses will agree. It was nice to have a cooler spring then last year, although those windy days in March were Hell to work the horses out in as well as to play game. The rain that has graced our area SRQ has been a God send.......Water holes are coming up to level and pastures have a chance to replenish rather then be crispy brown. But we need more, much more --the drought continues to drive hay, alfafa & feed prices skyward. Between that and fuel prices the "little guy" is really getting slammed. Even the wealthy - who in the past were insulated from these economic realities are scaling back. As I like to say, we humans "think" we are in control..........ultimately it's the weather - Mother Nature is the real boss and like a female...ever so unpredictable.
Don't think those waves will amount to anything....perhaps just a "dress rehearsal" for things to come. Does anyone know what the status is w/the Sahara Dust so far. Is it too early for us to start to observe it? Actually I think we have to wait some on that
Greetings, from a new entity called BLOB WATCHERS INC>
Keep a Jaundiced eye on the Atlantic,
Dissapointments are Probable
Organisation is Possible
Pretty pictures are Planned.

In all seriousness though, a nice formation ?
Hi, Surfmom.
Not too early to look at the Dust and dry air . In fact, there has been very little of it this year so far. If the Itcz keeps creeping north, then the conditions that allow that may also tend to supress the flow of SAL into the Trop Atl.
well i expect vey little to come out of this convective area because climatology does not allow it. having said that the area is under low wind shear 5-10 knots. there is the slim window of oppurtunity to see a little excitement until the unfavourable conditions ahead of it take toll
Also, if you look at the loop covering that Atl. raincloud, it is seen to be blowing north/east, and not west as one would expect, for a tropical wave.
Mornin', Mr. Storm.
629. StormW 8:27 AM CDT on April 08, 2008
Looks like more bad stuff!


Somehow, I am not really concerned about tomorrow, since almost every significant severe weathe threat has busted miserably this year in that area, around Texas (different story further east), it might be related to the developing drought there. Thursday could however have a major, high risk outbreak... especially given Missouri's recent reputation for severe weather the last few years (the latest example, on March 27 there was no tornado threat at all on the SPC outlooks and very marginal hail/wind - yet there were more reports and tornadoes than yesterday).
Storm, would you care to venture into an opinion into the current conditions in the East Atlantic ?
I dont recall seeing things quite like they are now, before. ( not that "before " goes back very far ! )
Not looking for a forecast, but rather a brief summary of what may be causing what looks like a moist itcz in April, a little north than usual ?

Thanks.....
I agree with you michael. That dry air needs to reform in the mid west. I think Thursday morning is going to be more severe than tomorrow. Yet tornado possiblities are definatly up there.
Ok good, I am getting this down --been looking at that Itcz & noticing it has been slinking north. The sahara dust ingredient fascinates me --I still get so amazed at all the interlocking situations that either give us a busy season or not.

The Sahara dust is also interesting because last year as some of that made it over to FL., we notice that horses w/respiratory problems "seemed" to get worse that period of time last year when it was heavy in the air. I never noticed this stuff before, but as I learn more I begin to observe more.
The active ITCZ is because of the MJO, which is currently centered in that area (green indicates upper divergence and enhanced convection):



Here is the CPC's MJO page, useful for tracking the MJO, as well as their global tropical hazards outlook (note the current outlook for the Atlantic).
619. TampaSpin 8:59 AM EDT on April 08, 2008
I would have to say that there are some very powerful waves with spin coming off of Africa now.


Good Morning Folks.....The ITCZ has been very healthy for the past few weeks....Still too early to tell what will happen with conditions around August when the Cape Verde season kicks in but we could get a lot of very healthy waves this year (whether they actually develop and make it across the Atlantic is another matter)........
Thanks, STL and Storm. Appreciated.
re post635 - looks like some fun learning on the blog today - great question Pottery
Pottery, I know I'm not StormW but if you don't mind, I can help as well.
If you notice here there is very little, if any SAL in that region. Also, here you can see the wind shear is not totally unfavorable. Maybe a better visual of this would be in TampaSpin's post 618. Also, if conditions are favorable in Winter, then it will develop. I'm not saying this will, nor am I hinting it. But by the same token, a storm won't develop in September, if conditions aren't right. And as far as the ITCZ goes, I'm not sure either. :-)
Silly question, robs having a brain fart.

MJO stands for.......?
Thanks Michael - a bit hard for me to understand these maps - but gotta start somewhere -thx for links
P.S.
Enjoying my new highspeed connection, so I can keep up with you guys.......
Pottery, sorry, here is the working link to the second link for #639

Try this
MJO

The Madden-Julian oscillation Link
615. stoormfury 8:45 AM EDT on April 08, 2008
what is this thing in the eastern far atlantic? is this the first wave of the 2008 season? there is some rotation near 10n 35w. if this is a wave then it is an ominous sign for the coming season.


Its a weak wave or pertubation but I donot know if its a tropical easterly wave. It does consist of a low level trough and vort max near 925 mb mb. TPW loop clearly shows a westward moving wave-like cyclonic feature interacting with upper level southwesterly flow near 35W. Upper vapor winds and divergence show this southwesterly flow is associated with an upper ridge axis extending from West Africa to 50W. Surface divergence is ahead of the "axis" and surface convergence behind. Typical of waves. QuikSCAT show very weak cyclonic (trough) flow at the surface. Given that, I would say the area is just a low level reflection of upper level energy.
Thanks, Geek. 2nd one was good.
Between "The Blob" yesterday and "The Wave" today, looks like a good tune up for when the Season really starts.........
Nice, 456.
This is getting interesting.
Thanks Pat, seems like its mainly a pacific even according to that page. Or in other words a random blob outside the ITCZ. Makes sense now!

Thanks again.
currently...no tropical waves have been dectected becuz the AEJ is not established as yet. The actvity along the ITCZ is being cuzed by a different type of wave.
ok no problem pottery :)
Hansen's latest paper on CO2 targets is well worth a read.

His main point is that current targets of 550ppm or anything above 350ppm will lead to lose of all polar ice cover and the attendent catastrophic rise in sea levels.

He doesn't use models to predict this, but rather relies on a careful examination of past climate and CO2 levels.

Target Atmospheric CO2: Where Should Humanity Aim?(pdf)

James Hansen,1,2* Makiko Sato,1,2 Pushker Kharecha,1,2 David Beerling,3
Valerie Masson-Delmotte,4 Mark Pagani,5 Maureen Raymo,6 Dana L. Royer,7 James C. Zachos8

Paleoclimate data show that climate sensitivity is ~3°C for doubled CO2, including only fast
feedback processes. Equilibrium sensitivity, including slower surface albedo feedbacks, is
~6°C for doubled CO2 for the range of climate states between glacial conditions and icefree
Antarctica. Decreasing CO2 was the main cause of a cooling trend that began 50
million years ago, large scale glaciation occurring when CO2 fell to 425±75 ppm, a level
that will be exceeded within decades, barring prompt policy changes. If humanity wishes to
preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on Earth
is adapted, paleoclimate evidence and ongoing climate change suggest that CO2 will need to
be reduced from its current 385 ppm to at most 350 ppm. The largest uncertainty in the
target arises from possible changes of non-CO2 forcings. An initial 350 ppm CO2 target
may be achievable by phasing out coal use except where CO2 is captured and adopting
agricultural and forestry practices that sequester carbon. If the present overshoot of this
target CO2 is not brief, there is a possibility of seeding irreversible catastrophic effects.

Guardian UK Article



..."...different type of wave" ??
The MJO travels around the Globe ,....

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is an equatorial traveling pattern of anomalous rainfall that is planetary in scale. The mechanism and cause of the MJO is as yet not well-understood and is a subject of ongoing study.
653. pottery 9:56 AM AST on April 08, 2008
..."...different type of wave" ??


Wave Disturbances in the Tropics

Equatorial Waves
African Easterly Waves
Equatorial trapped waves (Kelvin waves)
Rossby Waves

The reason why we have to rule out AEWs is becuz these waves from within the instability of the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) over Western Africa. They are detected by looking at wave-like pertubations along the AEJ axis and potential vort (PV) fields. They tracked westward as anomalous convective signitures. The African easterly jet (AEJ) is not established.

Even if the conditions look marginal like they look now the wave is too far south in latitude...It's rare to get storms below 8 degrees latitude even in the Cape Verde Season
Surfer Wave Dude...its moving wnw.

that guy is dooooooooooooomed Pat !
OK, thanks again 456.
I can only imagine whats going through that guys mind, well besides faster faster faster.
Yeah, also for him, a bad time to remember that the life insurance policy payment cheque is in the backpack on the beach......
Just looked the visible imagery of the CATL disturbance, and what ever it is, it is showing signs of some low level turning. This could potentially be a sign of the Cape verde season to come.
weather 456
this year has seen so many anomalies in the weather pattern in the tropical atlantic, that this wave like structure could be yet an anomaoly. at the moment the SAL is very weak and the upper and midlevels are are extremely moist, making very difficult for the sahara dust to traverse the atlantic as far as the caribbean islands as has been in the past
btw....killa pic patrap.
Expect the unexpected this season.......(however not in April, maybe late May/Early June, but not early April).....
That is one wave I never want to see....although when I caught one during Wilma it felt that big......just looking at that pic. brings back the horror of that ride (I was convinced I would die)I survived (obviously) but I will never ever go into anything considered heavy again....frankly I am lucky I survived that one. I am thinking the guy is the photo is Laird Hamilton --one of if not the best heavy wave surfer in the world. Photo looks to be Teeahoupoo (sp.?) Tahiti Pls. note Wilma's waves were not that big, but they were the largest and the most beautifully formed the gomex had seen in 20 years.
i am so happy that i spotted this ATL like disturbance to stir up discussion on the coming season. now we will start to get going once again. it would be interesting to see what prof Gray et al has to say in theur April forecast
Point taken, Wannabe.
But historical parameters are surely going to be put to the test in the coming years.
We have never been here before................
663. stoormfury 10:19 AM AST on April 08, 2008
weather 456
this year has seen so many anomalies in the weather pattern in the tropical atlantic, that this wave like structure could be yet an anomaoly. at the moment the SAL is very weak and the upper and midlevels are are extremely moist, making very difficult for the sahara dust to traverse the atlantic as far as the caribbean islands as has been in the past


Also, becuz of the a more westward ridge than normal, surface flow along the Eastern ATL is reduced. This was from my Easter Weekend forecast:

Drier than normal conditions over West Africa favors more dust than wetter than normal. A more westward ridge reduces dust events across the TRP ATL than a more eastward ridge. This year we have had extremely drier than normal conditions over West Africa but below normal dust in the ATL (at least compared to the last 4-5 years). The missing link is now the sub ridge which has been anomalously westward than normal. Other effects of this, is the weakening north flow along West Africa (Canary Current) which allowed SSTs to build well above normal.

Gotta run....bbl
My thinking is is closer to what we call CISK (Conditional Instability of the Second Kind).

AFRICA LOOP

456, would appreciate your input.


Ur thinking is right, but where is the enhanced convergence coming from? Is it mid-latitude flow or becuz of the enhanced easterly of the Kelvin wave mentioned by the NHC.
STormW - -LOL CISK ---Just love the new vocab word!! - can use that word in many other areas of my life besides weather. thanks for the explain....taxes my brain somewhat, but I have a nice wad of information to chew on for the rest of the day as i go about my chores...hummm
You guys are great. Thanks again for the inputs.Interesting times are ahead, looks like.

Surfmom, it would have to be Laird, but I had not seen the ride from that angle before. He survived it too......

Got to go. BBL
What a great morning - thanks for the add on 456, Got lots of things to think about and review during the mundane tasks of the day --thanks everyone --it was a great learning session this AM--off to the four-leggeds take care ALL
669. pottery 10:26 AM EDT on April 08, 2008
Point taken, Wannabe. But historical parameters are surely going to be put to the test in the coming years. We have never been here before................


You raise a great issue in that it looks like you are assuming that GW and related climate change is in fact a reality (and I agree that if it is, that the parameters will be stretched)....However, if this is indeed the case, and as you state, it may take decades to try and nail down "scientific" correlation to support the effect on, let's say, the Atlantic Tropical Season, and for NWS to, let's say, adjust the season to go from May 1 to December 31.........Know What I mean?........Think that many of us (older folks) might have passed away by then but who knows?.............That is exactly why my mantra for the past few weeks has been expect the unexpected........Ace
#668 - Ahh Storm, aside from the weather infor. what a beautiful picture of our planet!!
BBL this PM
How is a man supposed to get any work done around here ??

I know exactly what you mean, Wannabe. The nice thing about this internet stuff, is that we will never pass away.What you see inscribed upon this screen is here forever.
In 600 years some freak will find it and say " eureka " or something
Cool Beans and have a great day (and go get some work done)........
I'm out.......
some people are wishcasting already. I thought it was a little early for that.
Link

Is this April, or AUGUST? Take ONE Guess.
tillou -- Did any of the intelligent smart FOREcasters in here ever say this was gonna develop or anything bizzare like that?

We're having fun with an unusual behavior in the eastern Atlantic for this time of year......it's been pretty boring besides the severe weather outbreaks.....we love discussing this kind of thing preparing for the season to come where we actually will have to worry about these waves developing.....and as 456 said this could be a sign of a healthy Cape Verde season to come during mid-summer.
Its April...WAY too early for cape verde season. Remember Last year we had 93L in June...but I haven't seen anything like this THIS early.

Now I doubt this will turn into a TS or anything...The water just isn't warm enough yet...but you never know.
area of disturb weather
mark 9.3n/36.1w
".. Did Someone say, a Blob?.."
Photobucket
Interesting area near Africa with a little bit of a twist. Its way too close to the equator. Shear is low and the SSTs are enough. I'm thinking once it gets out of that area of favorable TCHP there might be nothing left of it. As previously mention the convection looks to be enhanced by the ITCZ and the MJO.


Nothing is likely to develop, but it sure looks interesting for this time of year.
MLC, we are talking about the area close to Africa. 17W 5N.... (raw coordinates)
Drakoen, if we are already getting waves like this, and its April, it is a possibility that We could start seeing Cape Verde systems similar to Dean in July, The Shear, belive it or not, is below average for this time of year, SST's are warm enough to support a Tropical System, But I get the impression that The Carribean might be a breading ground, maybe because the SST's are rather warm.
Are we convinced that this is a Wave ? I am not sure ! Could be some enhanced ITCZ weather.?
693. pottery 5:10 PM GMT on April 08, 2008
Are we convinced that this is a Wave ? I am not sure ! Could be some enhanced ITCZ weather.?


The NHC 12z updated shows a trough line intersecting the ITCZ. So it is some type of trough of low pressure.
OK, Drak. I had not seen the NHC 12z till you brought it out. Thanks.
697. pottery 5:20 PM GMT on April 08, 2008
OK, Drak. I had not seen the NHC 12z till you brought it out. Thanks.


There is some low level cyclonic turning. However, is hard to get a read on the low level positive vorticity maximum because the system is so far south.
I'm surprised you are seeing turning at all so close to the equator. I cant pick it up..There still seems to be a fair amount of south/ westerly wind at mid to high altitude ?
699. pottery 5:31 PM GMT on April 08, 2008
I'm surprised you are seeing turning at all so close to the equator. I cant pick it up..There still seems to be a fair amount of south/ westerly wind at mid to high altitude ?


I'm using RAMSDIS. They have a floater and a long range view on the system.
GOES-12 Channel 3 (WV)false color image of the African Coast,click to ENlarge Link

Low Cloud Product,same image Link

IR Link
hey JFV.
Its nothing to be concerned about unless you want to get ahead on the early blob watching LOL...
OK Drack. Thanks.

Nice Link PAT, bookmarked that one.
SURFACE ANALYSIS THROUGH
1015 UTC...from the Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion Link
LSU Earth Scan Lab Link
...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ IS PRETTY ACTIVE E OF 20W. IT AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG
4N10W 2N20W...THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W AND 40W INTO NE
BRAZIL. A SFC TROUGH IS ANALYZED ON THE 12Z MAP ALONG 14/15W
WHERE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION. ANOTHER SFC TROUGH IS INTRODUCED ALONG 36W FROM 5N
TO 10N. VIS SAT PHOTOS REVEAL A WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC TURNING
ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 8N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 200 NM E OF TROUGH AXIS.
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE IS FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO MOVE WWD REACHING
50W LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
its just an area of disturb weather giving us a dry run
something to watch if any thing developes it will in all liklyhood
hit along ne coast of south america maybe as far east as trinny
if it even makes it that far but it is unusal to say the least
..looks like the remnants of Karen 07 Kinda...regenerated.

OK. So 2 troughs in the mix. Both moving west. I wonder if either will hold out to 60W. in which case I can say that it will be our first "rainy- season " rain for the year.

Corpus Christy Holiday is the traditional time for planting the garden, in these parts. And with Corpus Christy being so early this year ( May 22), I was wondering if we were going to defy the gods.
Maybe not after all !
Not much JFV. just checking out the main blog to see if anything exciting is happening.
looks like Don Rickles is the most exciting thing today!
LOL Pat... Maybe Ingrid?
Pottery... How's the weather down south? Hot and humid?
True enough, Keeper.
Its all a game of "glorious uncertainties" as we say in cricket !
Hi, 77.
88 f, 55 % Humid.
Nice cool wind at 15 mph with trees swaying around. Lovely day actually.
716. stormdude77 1:55 PM EDT
LOL Pat... Maybe Ingrid?

I was thinking Pab-Low
Lake Mary(Northern suburb of Orlando), FL.
Temp. 83F

Humidity 39%

Dewpoint 56F

Winds. NE at 10-15 MPH

Not bad...
Good afternoon all! Looks like some people have begun wave-watching like I have now just started. Quite impressive for this time of the year. Both systems are currently experiencing favorable shear and SSTs, but will likely not develop into a tropical system as they remain too close to the equator to benefit from the Coriolis effect. Surprised noone mentioned this, but these disturbances continue to inhibit the SAL throughout the Atlantic. This does not bode well for the upcoming hurricane season. Well, I'm out for a while, so play nice people and keep up the great work everyone.
Seeing these posts about the wave are reminding me of how close we really are to the beginning of the season. I'm anxious to track a real wave- we all have to admit that the study of Hurricanes is extremely fun even though they cause destruction...
agreed weatherfreak . we all believe that hurricane tracking is fun. Even though they cause serious destruction.
I don't think we'll see anything develop out of these waves, either; but its amazing how early these well-defined waves have begun to roll off the African coast. If this continues into hurricane season (and if the ITCZ shifts to the north, resolving issues with Coriolis) I think its very likely that we will see a lot of action out by Cape Verde this year.

EDIT: Ok well upon closer inspection it's not a wave, but a trough.
Hey folks, quick weather related triva question, if y'all dont mind of course that is. Anyways, what is the name of the city, which is most hurricane prone in the United States?

I'll take a guess: Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.
CCHS, re yr post 724. I mentioned this at post 623 . Good call though.

731. JFV 3:20 PM EDT on April 08, 2008
That was a very good guess Terra Nova, but the actual accurate answer is Key West FL my friend.


If that is the case, then Key West has been very lucky over the past couple of decades as they have not had any direct hits that I remember (although a few close calls with some local flooding from storm surge).......Hope it stays that way for the next several decades...KW is a great city to relax/enjoy water sports/ and party in............(and great architecture)...
Please note (any KW natives) that I did not say "live" in....I know (from being a frequent visitor in the late 60's/early 70's)that much of the old local population has been displaced by the high cost of housing and overdevelopment.......I did much prefer the "old" Key West to the current one...
the carolina's have really lucked out. They haven't had a hurricane since isabel of 2003
Also, and continuing some previous discussion, everybody knows that this is a leap year, and that leap years are far more or less something or the other, than normal ,years.
Just thought I would make that clear.
hehehe
Gah I thought waves were supposed to start in august it must be a forecoming of the rest of the season
WHY WONT A CYCLONE FORM there aren't any anywhere
Leap Year.....OK....the Season begins on May 31st......LOL
May 31 it is then LOL
It's going NNW....here we go, our 1st Cat5
Ithe the NHC should prepare Florida immediately!
LOL
740. pottery 3:58 PM EDT on April 08, 2008
May 31 it is then LOL


On a more serious note, as I know that you are one of our "front line" Bloggers down in the Caribbean, I do hope for your sake, and other regulars from down there, that we strong>don't have a very active Cape Verde season (if we do, you may need to take a few flights out of the islands during the season).....
735. hahaguy 7:37 PM GMT on April 08, 2008 Hide this comment.
the carolina's have really lucked out. They haven't had a hurricane since isabel of 2002


You mean 2003, I was hit my Isabel, it was a rough ride when I lived up there.
hey doomcaster, the funny thing is that thats what the wishcasters are going to say that in the coming months lol. woops i mixed up the years there my bad lol.
Why are some people saying that its a tropical wave when its not? If it was officially a trp wave it be listed under the tropical wave header in TWD or depicted on the TAFB surface analysis chart.
hahaguy...you got that right....no matter what everything goes N, NNW even if it is moving SW...remember that....LOL
Gotta love those wishcasters they provide lottsa laughs
663. stoormfury 10:19 AM AST on April 08, 2008
weather 456
this year has seen so many anomalies in the weather pattern in the tropical atlantic, that this wave like structure could be yet an anomaoly. at the moment the SAL is very weak and the upper and midlevels are are extremely moist, making very difficult for the sahara dust to traverse the atlantic as far as the caribbean islands as has been in the past


Also, becuz of the a more westward ridge than normal, surface flow along the Eastern ATL is reduced. This was from my Easter Weekend forecast:

Drier than normal conditions over West Africa favors more dust than wetter than normal. A more westward ridge reduces dust events across the TRP ATL than a more eastward ridge. This year we have had extremely drier than normal conditions over West Africa but below normal dust in the ATL (at least compared to the last 4-5 years). The missing link is now the sub ridge which has been anomalously westward than normal. Other effects of this, is the weakening north flow along West Africa (Canary Current) which allowed SSTs to build well above normal.
I hear you, Wannabe.
But hopefully, trinidad is still too far south, at 11 n or so, to be in the Red Zone. ( we have had some close calls for sure )
The big danger from Trop. systems is heavy rains in the mountains.
As for catching planes, my family has been here since 1817, and I'm not letting no storm etc, etc,etc ( famous last words LOL )
it is not a tropical wave. i have not noticed the inverted trough any where, as there is no clear axis. also there was no soundings recorded of anything leaving the african coast. this appears to be an area area of convectionwith some rotation at the surface.
Its a surface trough that intersects the ITCZ.... Its not a tropical wave.
456, I think some have said "wave " as in "that thing out there ". I think you and others made it clear earlier that it was not a Tropical Wave.
Right, I'm going to wash my truck. That will guarantee some rain tomorow. BBL
751. pottery 4:17 PM AST on April 08, 2008
456, I think some have said "wave " as in "that thing out there ". I think you and others made it clear earlier that it was not a Tropical Wave.


seen
Howdy, folks...if any are in here
another wet cold weekend ahead for us here in New England,would love to see some tropical weather up here.
Hey Flood, long time no Jerry. hehehe
Why are some people saying that its a tropical wave when its not? If it was officially a trp wave it be listed under the tropical wave header in TWD or depicted on the TAFB surface analysis chart.

My bad; I didn't check the charts before I posted. It does, however, strongly resemble a wave/tropical wave disturbance at first glance at a satellite image.
Look at the next two days in severe weather! Tomorrow and Thursday look to be real big in tornadoes (yesterday lacked touch downs/big supercells after that first huge one with the fish hook echo). By the way that huge cell yesterday that was the first to develop seemed to have used up all of the energy in the atmosphere, which could be a reason why all of the cells after that one failed to match up.

Usually Moderate risks out three days have a good chance of eventually being upgraded to High risk.

Exerpt from tomorrow's outlook:

A FEW
TORNADOES...SOME STRONG...WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW IS PROGD TO REMAIN SSELY BENEATH STRONGLY VEERING PROFILES
BETWEEN SFC-1KM. THE SVR RISKS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
NIGHT...LIKELY EXPANDING N AND E WITH AN ADDITIONAL RISK OF DMGG
WIND GUSTS ACROSS NCNTRL/NE TX INTO CNTRL/ERN OK AND PSBLY WRN
AR/SWRN MO.


Excerpt from Thursday's outlook:

...A HIGH SRH ENVIRONMENT AND MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL SUPPORT AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR TORNADOES...SOME OF WHICH
COULD BE STRONG/LONG TRACKED. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY.



LSU Earth Scan Lab Link
None off its coming to Virginia the weathers so boring here and unpredictable it was nicer in winter than it is now
Alright!

whatever happens with this (nothing!), blob-watching season '08 is officially underway!!

..but I don't think it has any implications for the season. Even if it becomes a tropical storm (yeah right), it won't signal anything bad. Monster seasons are foreshadowed by such occurances as Cat 5s in July.
Hi folks. Some of you may know me some may not. I was here all last hurricane season. And Since the 2008 hurricane season is coming fast i thought id join in on the chit chat. Anyway wouldnt it be something to see a depression in April? I believe in may we will get at least one depression. If anyone hasent saw my hurricane forecast go to this link and click on tropical bloggg.
Yes BLOB watching has begun!!
In an email last week, regarding this hurricane season Dr. Masters said that tuesday (today) he would be mentioning the upcoming season...since i believe today the official April hurricane season forecast was supposed to come outt.
766. K8e1
yes CaneAddict
it has
i also go by K8eCane and i frequent this blog during the season
NHC:

THE ITCZ IS PRETTY ACTIVE E OF 20W. IT AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG
4N10W 2N20W...THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W AND 40W INTO NE
BRAZIL. A SFC TROUGH IS ANALYZED ON THE 12Z MAP ALONG 14/15W
WHERE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION. ANOTHER SFC TROUGH IS INTRODUCED ALONG 36W FROM 5N
TO 10N. VIS SAT PHOTOS REVEAL A WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC TURNING
ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 8N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 200 NM E OF TROUGH AXIS. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE IS FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO MOVE WWD REACHING
50W LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

k8e1, I have my own Weather website. You should go to it and post comments on my blog. we can discuss the tropics there also my hurricane forecast is up. Click Here
Wave off Africa:

Thanks for that info from the NHC (ITCZ Discussion), CaneAddict! That feature (Trough) might increase my rain chances by weekend.
With the wave off Africa. There is some evident cyclonic turning associated with it...

And storm dude your welcome. Check out my site and subscribe if you wish.
With the wave off Africa. There is some evident cyclonic turning associated with it...

If there is any cyclonic turning associated with the wave, it will be transient in nature. This won't develop this far out in April. If anything, it should serve as a reminder that the hurricane season is fast approaching.
how long before its a cat 6
hehehehe
LOL Keeper. Good one!

And I notice how pottery and Weather456 said that it wasn't a tropical wave. My bad. I'll listen to them before listening to myself. I may know a lot about tropical weather, but I trust them more than I do myself.

Even so, it should still serve as a reminder the season is fast approaching.
its just the priming forces priming up the area for the season and the slow but progressive movement north by west of the itcz
into its normal preseason position thats it
fun to watch test out all the old sat links
how long before its a cat 6

I think I'm gonna set my hair ablaze....
The calender is saying April but the satellite images look more like July or August.

They are definitely tropical easterly african waves with 0 chance at any development.We'll ok i'll give it a 5 percent chance at tc formation.

You can catch a good view from this loop.
maybe u should try spinning the chair in front of the computer to get some cyclonic turning happening
Agreed Weather456. I doubt it will develop but it is pretty amazing to see a wave of this definition out this early.....But i do agree it is time to start BLOB watching! Im so excited.
we may be seeing the effect of those high sst's off off africa the reason behind this
in which iam hoping the cloud cover will cool it a little sst wise
so whats new with the BERMUDA HIGH???
Keeper. The cloud cover isnt going to really stop this wave from developing. ( I KNOW IT WONT DEVELOP) but if it was to develop the cloud cover wouldnt do anything but help it. Do your remember the Diurnal Max And Diurnal min?
iam talking about water temp being effected by cloud cover preventing sunlight from reaching the water and warming it even more more clouds the better for the sst's
There's an Anticyclone in the EATL, providing low shear over this wave-like feature...

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NWD ALONG 65W CROSSING BERMUDA. A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC WHILE ANOTHER RIDGE
DOMINATES WEST AFRICA AND THE IBERIAN PENINSULA. A JET STREAM
BRANCH WITH CORE WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT IS ALONG THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 29N33W ALL THE WAY NE OVER PORTUGAL
AND SPAIN. ANOTHER WIND MAXIMA UP TO 90 KT IS SEEN BETWEEN THE
CANARY AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. BROAD E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS
THE TROPICAL BELT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 10N18W.
blob watch in effect till further notice
lol
Shear is low with the ITCZ convection and the SSTs aren't too cold but this is April. This thing won't develop, but if it persists longer, it shows that perhaps we could have an interesting Cape Verde season. But this isn't a tropical wave.
Yes, Storm dude i was just about to mention that. And for those that dont already know. The next official hurricane forecast is tomorrow. (Wednesday April 9th)
LOL... I don't expect this feature/trough in the EATL to form, just stating what I see...
Satellite imagery clearly shows weak cyclonic curvature with this feature and this is reflected on 925 mb rel vort charts. QuikSCAT winds dectected winds turning about an axis extending from 5N/20W to 2N/20W. Fun to watch and analyse. Clearly the disturbance too far south to aquire any decent rotation. However, I'm not so sure its a African Easterly Wave despite having many of thier characteristics.
Extreme. Just because June is the official start of the hurricane season that doesent mean that Nothing can happen untill then. The only reason June-November is hurricane season is because tropical cyclones dont usually form in the months before or after that. Yes ia agree this is'nt a tropical wave. It is however a wave with cyclonic turning evident. The chances are low but are still there that this could perhaps become a depression. The SSTS are pretty darn hot where this wave-like feature is located. Also there is, as mentioned by someone else an anticyclone over it providing favorable shear conditions. The chance is there. I do however not anticipate development. If this was May i would probably give this a decent chance at development. Remember last year our first named storm formed on May 9th i believe or somewhere around there. So if this isnt an early storm. Come may we may see some pre-season surprises.

I will step off the soap box now.
extreme236,

long time no see.



New space station crew rockets into space

By Clara Moskowitz, SPACE.com Link
Evening Extreme; your post answered my question.

W456 - What is the difference between African Easterly Wave and a Tropical Wave? Does one have different characteristics than the other?
Also with this wave or cluster of thunderstorms, If you look closely on satellite there appears to be some disorganized banding evident.
791. TerraNova 7:58 PM AST on April 08, 2008
I'm confused...is this a tropical wave or not?


At this moment, its not a wave.
The First Man to Walk in Space and the First Woman in Space Appear at the Launch of Expedition 17

Hello CaneAddict, TerraNova, W456, and everyone else.

Extreme. Just because June is the official start of the hurricane season that doesent mean that Nothing can happen untill then. The only reason June-November is hurricane season is because tropical cyclones dont usually form in the months before or after that.

I absolutely agree. If this wave-like feature was occuring during hurricane season when the environment was more favorable this thing would have more of a chance. I wouldn't rule anything out though.

so whats new with the BERMUDA HIGH???
Extreme. Thanks for aggreeing
There were and will be Systems that find fruition in off Season Months.
But historically,we see the Lower Gom,BoC,..for early season development,and it can be extreme as early as June. Allison Showed us that in 2001.A Tropical Storm.

Taz, It's to early to predict how the Bermuda high will set up...
However, this is certainly an interesting feature. I guess everyone seems ready for Blob Watch 2008 lol

Just 54 days till the hurricane season.
1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion Link
i no that



i this want an update on what the BERMUDA HIGH is doing
Patrap. Last year May 9th we had this system form.....So Allison was not really early compared to Andrea. No offense to you. just stating a fact and my opinion.


Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

100'S of tropical waves role of the african coast in any given season with only a select few developing in tropical cyclones.Besides the fact that it is to far south just to the north of this wave windshear increases to over 40-60kts.Its april folks no need to look of the african coast it will be another 6-8 weeks before anything really has a decent chance out in that region.
I can't wait to see Dr. Masters' blog, on the steering currents for this year, it should be very interesting...
I agree H23; the Cape Verde area will not become an area to seriously monitor for genesis until maybe late June or early July. The western Atlantic (specifically the Gulf, Caribbean, and area off the southeast coast) is where early systems are most likely to develop. Not that it's impossible for things to happen in the east this time of year; but it is highly unlikely.
I dont count those Foo-Foo storms.A Lil TS or Depression aint an impact.

Not those lil Burps from the Gulf Stream like Andrea was.

Tropical Storm Allison was a tropical storm that devastated southeast Texas in June of the 2001 Atlantic hurricane season. The first storm of the season, Allison lasted unusually long for a June storm, remaining tropical or subtropical for 15 days. The storm developed from a tropical wave in the northern Gulf of Mexico on June 4, 2001, and struck the northern Texas coast shortly thereafter. It drifted northward through the state, turned back to the south, and re-entered the Gulf of Mexico. The storm continued to the east-northeast, made landfall on Louisiana, then moved across the southeast United States and Mid-Atlantic. Allison was the first storm since Tropical Storm Frances in 1998 to strike the northern Texas coastline.[1]

The storm dropped heavy rainfall along its path, peaking at over 40 inches (1,000 mm) in Texas. The worst flooding occurred in Houston, where most of Allison's damage occurred: 30,000 became homeless after the flooding destroyed 2,744 homes. Downtown Houston was inundated with flooding, causing severe damage to hospitals and businesses. Twenty-three people died in Texas. Throughout its entire path, Allison caused $6.4 billion (2007 USD) in damage and 41 deaths. Aside from Texas, the places worst hit were Louisiana and southeastern Pennsylvania..

And June 4 is only 4 days into the season,....Id say that's early.

Tropical Storm Allison Link
Also, Again last year we had tropical storm form the first day of hurricane season and cut accross florida.
W456 - What is the difference between African Easterly Wave and a Tropical Wave? Does one have different characteristics than the other?

There are three conceptual tropical wave models:

The African Easterly Waves - Ethiopia to the Cape Verdes
Inverted V Tropical Waves - Cape Verdes to the Lesser Antilles
Rheil's Tropical Waves - The Eastern Caribbean to Central America


There are several features that distinguish AEW from those waves found over the TRP ATL and CARIB.

They have two areas of max vort in the low levels poleward and equatorward the axis. In the other wave models, the area of max vort is found along the axis.

Low level convergence is ahead of the wave axis instead of behind. Most of the bad weather occurs ahead of the axis unlike the Rhiel's tropical wave where most of the bad weather occurs behind the wave axis.

Form near 15E, tracked westward as anomalous convective signitures and they do not have a surface vort/circulaton until they reach the coast.

Lastly, as these waves enter the Eastern ATL, they weaken due to the stable enviroment (dust and cool ssts).
But Ive seen Late,Very late season Neutercanes,now Sub-tropical-thing-a-ma-bobs,LOL or Hurricanes,Like Hurricane Juan in 84 Link, which flooded La. in Lafitte and Sw of New Orleans,in Late October,early November. Storm surge piled up and coffins were popping outta graves in some areas,floating away.

Juan Link

Track and rain totals. Link

Satellite Pic,Juan Link
Thanks W456!
Well whatever that blob thing is, what little convection origianlly existed with it is quickly fading.
Everning, all.
Good to see the folks gathering round the old keyboard.
Nice to see 236,Caneaddict, again. Been a while.
Nothing like a good raincloud to excite the troops ! This one is interesting though, and I for one am looking at it from the point of view that-
the SAL has been less than recent previous years
the water temps are warm
the wet season in Africa has been relatively low rainfall in areas spawning waves
the ITCZ is showing more moisture than normal

The above would seem to be conditions that would normally contradict each other to some degree.
Thats what I find so interesting here now.
.
Pottery, Long time no talk. Yes i am not usually on unless its hurricane season but i feel confident enough to say BLOB watching 08 has begun!
Yeah Addict. Its BLOB time. We were saying earlier, that since this is a leap year, the season will start on may 31 st. So you have 1 less day to prepare ! Better get movin' heheheh
Ha! Im sure we will see some pre-season surprises before the season gets under-way.
Blob alert: The blob is fading quickly
Anyone want to make any bids on how many investigative areas we will see before hurricane season?

Blob Reply: Yes it is fading quickly.
Still a large area, but losing depth fast. Now why is this ?
I think an earlier discussion suggested that it would hold together to around 50 W.
The water temps are plenty warm in the area, yet it has not been able to maintain the convection it had earlier.

Any ideas ?
825. DDR
Good night all,
Pottery i see our rain chances are high for the coming weekend,from that trough.

Stormdude77 where are you from?
before we get excited about the Atlantic season we could be watching the east pacific their season starts two weeks earlier 2006 was a good year to watch the east pacific
Stormdude77 where are you from?

I'm located in Barbados, and yes... that trough will increase rain chances this weekend (across the Windward islands)...
What was the earliest storm to form in a season?
Pottery....It is common for a disturbance to gain and lose convection. So untill the evident cyclonic turning dissipates its not done. Also whoever said the east pacific would be the place to watch. This year most likely the east pacific wont have much activity in the way of tropical cyclones. Refer to past la nina and El nina events.
All4hurricanes. I believe it was Andrea which formed suntropically NE of Florida on May 9th of last year.
GFS fantasy near Florida:

Hi DDR. But the convection appears to be dissipating, all along the ITCZ.
During La Nina years, the EPAC is not as active as the Atlantic (the EPAC is more active in El Nino years; like 2006)...
834. DDR
Stormdude77

How is your dry season shaping up so far? Do you know its been unsually wet here in Trinidad
If I'm not mistaken, the Pacific SSTs have warmed a bit, so the EPAC should be more active than last year.
I might be crazy but I thought some storm formed in March

OK place your bets what places will get hit by a devastating hurricane in the next five years

1. the Carolinas
2. Texas
3. New England
4. Puerto Rico
5. North East Coast of Florida
the great poofer
march 6th 1908 cat 2 hurricane did form all4
extreme236, I know myself you are very knowledgeable in tropical cyclones. So i would think you would know that SST's arent the only thing to make cyclones develop. Yoru facing alot of other factors that must be in place for a tropical cyclone to form also. And as stormdude said. East pacific hurricane seasons are more active in El nina years than in La nina years. Then again mother nature is unpredictable and may once again jog our minds and have an active season this year.
Thank you keeper of the gate i was pretty sure about that march storm
I believe there has been a tc form every month of the year except in January; however January has had a tc which has continued to survive from December. You might want to check, but I believe this is true.
I know that Zeta lasted to january 6th but thats the record for January storms
Keeper, You are indeed correct about a storm forming March 6th, 1908 but you are wrong about it's strength, not that it madders but it was just under the strength of a Category 2, So it was a very strong Category 1.

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us
zeta actually formed dec 30th and lasted to jan 6th
That is true, The EPAC is more active in El Nino than La Nina. I do think that since I expect there to be some effects of La Nina early in the season, I do believe at some point the ENSO will become more neutral, and neutral years for the EPAC are typically more average seasons, so 14-15 named storms for the EPAC is probably a good estimate. The cool SSTs were a major factor in inhibiting tropical cyclone developing last year since as the storms moved west, they encountered cooler waters and died out. Easterly winds were another major factor in the cyclone development, as easterly winds were rather significant during the first half of the EPAC season or so.
the eariest ever storm was on jan 18 1978 either tropical or subtropical classification
also 2 majors that year
The earliest recorded storm ever formed on January 18.

Link
actually cane A because 95 is just on the verge of cat 2 and the maps always round to the nearest 5 and due to lack of meteorological advances that storm could have easily been a cat 2
Well, it would be much better if we all went back to slingshots man. Nuclear is bad karma...........
How is your dry season shaping up so far? Do you know its been unsually wet here in Trinidad

It's very dry here (only 182 mm of rain so far for the year). During the last four years, that amount has been nearly doubled (at the end of March; especially in 2005 and 2006)
wow....that amazes me...what kind of conditions allow for a storm to form at that time? I am curious. Seriously with low SST's and a likely strong shear environment during that time, it is amazing to see a storm form.
Agreed 236. Well folks im off to bed but am glad to be back to BLOB watching 08! Night all, Catch yall tomorrow. And 236 i enjoy how me and you arent scared to state our own thoughts without agruing. night.

Always remember to book mark my site for future reference during the hurricane season and i do have my hurricane season forecast up check it out!
Good night CaneAddict. Enjoyed our discussion.
actually cane A because 95 is just on the verge of cat 2 and the maps always round to the nearest 5 and due to lack of meteorological advances that storm could have easily been a cat 2

I know bud, Just had to pick on you lol. But yeah your right it was likely a Cat. 2.
I'm out till tomorow. Have a good night all...........
so has a storm formed in every month of the year in the Atlantic?
Jan
Mar
May
Jun
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
can Ne1 find storms in the missing months?
hurricanes are like baking a cake if you dont mix all the ingredients in the right amounts its just not going to turn out
blob watch discontinued
not really sure jfv sometime tomorrow and i am sure it will show up on the blogs first as soon as it is released
Speaking of releases does NE1 know what 2007 storms retired?
OK bye I'm going to bed
so has a storm formed in every month of the year in the Atlantic?
Jan
Mar
May
Jun
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
can Ne1 find storms in the missing months?


You missed February. The Groundhog Day Storm of 1951 developed in February and moved across Florida, quickly becoming extratropical. This isn't to say that we should blob watch in February, since the storm in 1951 no doubt strengthened through baroclinic processes rather than through warm water. I question if that storm was fully tropical.

Speaking of releases does NE1 know what 2007 storms retired?

I don't think that's been decided yet. I'm thinking Dean, Felix, and Noel will be retired, though (Noel better be; Alberto and Gordon in 1994 weren't, and they clearly needed to be).
Good night CaneAddict and Pottery, see y'all later...
Oh, Bye all4hurricanes!

Hello Kori!
I think Dr. Gray's forecast will not be very high/severe (becasuse the SSTs in the Main Development Region for hurricanes are currently, below normal; at least for now, although that could change)... JMO
Good night all...cya tomorrow to see what Dr. Gray's team forecasts.
I think someone said that Dr. Gray was revising his forecast citing warmer than normal SSTs in the Eastern ATL.
Good night, Extreme! Hello W456...
hey
17-22 name storms 4-10 hurricanes and 7 cat 3 or higher hurrricnes this year
thats my hurricane forcast
I am expecting an interesting Cape Verde Season this year. The conditions out there are pointing to increase actvity out there like SSTs and the AEJ, just to name a few.
873. Tazmanian 10:27 PM AST on April 08, 2008
17-22 name storms 4-10 hurricanes and 7 cat 3 or higher hurrricnes this year


looks like another 2005. :-)
Evening, all.

Just popping for 1/2 hour after a long, work-filled day to see what's poppin' . . .

On Dr. Gray, I hope he doesn't revise upward. I think his Nov forecast wasn't too far off. The only place where he may need to adjust is in # of hurricanes. I'm not making a forecast or anything, but even considering cool to neutral conditions, I don't think we will go beyond the O storm . . .
It will be interesting to get an idea of the steering currents this year. The Bermuda high is the key, I believe...
i no its too soon to find out where are big H will end up this year but i would like a update on its where abouts where is are big H right now and how strong is it? is are big H strong right now to take any thing out to sea? or is it too weak for a storm to run right in too FL???
I'd believe another 1995 or 1999 . . . numbers-wise, anyway.

I agree, 456, that the CV season should be interesting, and particularly so depending on where the AB high sets up for the season.
877. Weather456 7:31 PM PDT on April 08, 2008
873. Tazmanian 10:27 PM AST on April 08, 2008
17-22 name storms 4-10 hurricanes and 7 cat 3 or higher hurrricnes this year

looks like another 2005. :-)



well you do no 456 that thats is my hurricane forcats and not Dr. Gray forcast right?
Hello everyone! :)
Evening, Baha! Are you in Nassau or Freeport (Grand Bahama)?
Hello HG
882. Tazmanian 10:35 PM AST on April 08, 2008
877. Weather456 7:31 PM PDT on April 08, 2008
873. Tazmanian 10:27 PM AST on April 08, 2008
17-22 name storms 4-10 hurricanes and 7 cat 3 or higher hurrricnes this year

looks like another 2005. :-)



well you do no 456 that thats is my hurricane forcats and not Dr. Gray forcast right?


yeah I know.

Gnight all
i no its too soon to find out where are big H will end up this year but i would like a update on its where abouts where is are big H right now and how strong is it? is are big H strong right now to take any thing out to sea? or is it too weak for a storm to run right in too FL???
Goodnight, W456...
i am forcasting 90 name storms this hurricane season


Look here:

LOL Taz... :-)

I think that the season will be just a tad less active. I think 17 lol
Well, By looking at this image the Bermuda high doesn't look to strong at the moment. Can anyone help me out?

884. stormdude77 10:36 PM EDT on April 08, 2008
Evening, Baha! Are you in Nassau or Freeport (Grand Bahama)?


Nassau. I didn't realize u were in Barbados. Are u Bajan, or just living there?

dude,

I wonder what would happen if a storm was travelling with a setup like this . . .
i no whats send all the hurricanes to ca
Yes, I'm Bajan... (100% Bajan at that, LOL...)
Taz, it's too early for you to be so eager . . .

LOL
re stormdude77 post #892:

That's interesting/odd. I could have sworn that just the other day I was looking at that same map it it showed the Bermuda High in Pink. (colors are what I go by lol). So could it be a typo? I don't know. Or does it change its strength so rapidly, or was I just seeing things the other day?? :-)
897.

Cool to have another islander on the board.
Those 1014 highs are low enough to be lows on other days . . .

Hmmm . .. isn't another sign of a potentially active season broad low pressure across the basin?

Anyway, I know the wind was very light here today because that high is so wimpy.
You're right, Baha! It would be interesting to see a storm in this setup, that's for sure...

Good night all
LOL
Good night to all.

I'm beat.
its june 1st evere one welcome to hurricane season
Id think a Season similar to that of 1995 or 1998,
2003, 2004, 2007.

My Predictions.
16 Named Storms.
8 Tropical Storms.
8 Hurricanes
3 Major.
Predictions for name storms to be retired in 2007, Dean, Felix, and Noel.
I think someone said that Dr. Gray was revising his forecast citing warmer than normal SSTs in the Eastern ATL.

Hmm... A few days ago (about a week ago actually) I thought I read somewhere that Dr. Gray himself said that he might increase the numbers in his April forecast.

Will be interesting to see if he revises and/or ups his forecast.

Good night all.
Possible high risk for Thursday. Some NWS forecasts are saying that this situation has the potential to rival other notorious outbreaks in the past 10 years or so.

AS DETAILS REGARDING EARLY DAY STORMS AND CONVECTIVE MODE BECOME
BETTER RESOLVED WITH TIME...AN UPGRADE TO A CATEGORICAL HIGH RISK IS
POSSIBLE IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.


IF INSTABILITY BECOMES ADEQUATE... THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE
SETUP SUGGESTS THAT THIS ONE COULD RIVAL SOME OF THE MORE
NOTORIOUS APRIL OUTBREAKS OF THE LAST SEVERAL DECADES.
its june 1st evere one welcome to hurricane season


Calm down Taz still more than 50 days left.
Alberto and Gordon in 1994 weren't, and they clearly needed to be

I can understand why Gordon needed to be retired but Haiti didn't suggest it so it wasn't but why Alberto 30 deaths and 500 million in damages extensive for a tropical storm but Retire?

They could have a universal retirement where if several countries are hit by a moderate storm and the damage/death in each country isn't enough to retire the countries meet and decide the overall damage/death is bad enough for retirement
Rise and shine bloggers
it may not be hurricane season but its close enough for us to obsess about it
Iexpect the numbers to go up in the april forecast by Gray et al. a number of factors point to this scenario.
the unusually warm sst in the region of the cape verdes.
low wind shear in the easten atl
the weakness in the sal
and finally the expected warming up of the mdr
and finally a la nina/ neutral conditions to persist almost through out the season .

all of this together sets the stage for a very active and exciting season

The 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season: A Post-Mortem
An Oddly Quiet Year for Hurricanes Link
Dr.Gray said last week at the NHC Conference that he would be upping the Forecast Numbers this Weds.
OK place your bets what places will get hit by a devastating hurricane this year

1. The Carolinas
2. Texas
3. New England
4. Puerto Rico
5. North East Coast of Florida
6. Hispaniola
7. Cuba
8. Mexico
9. Leeward Islands
10. Central america
11. Jamaica
12. Gulf Coast
OK place your bets what places will get hit by a devastating hurricane this year

1. The Carolinas
2. Texas
3. New England
4. Puerto Rico
5. Florida
6. Hispaniola
7. Cuba
8. Mexico
9. Leeward Islands
10. Central america
11. Jamaica
12. Gulf Coast
918. K8e1
carolinas
NEwhere else
920. K8e1
i think the Gulf might be safe this year
Jamaica hasn't had a direct hit in a long time
917. all4hurricanes 7:39 AM AST on April 09, 2008
OK place your bets what places will get hit by a devastating hurricane this year

1. The Carolinas
2. Texas
3. New England
4. Puerto Rico
5. Florida
6. Hispaniola
7. Cuba
8. Mexico
9. Leeward Islands
10. Central america
11. Jamaica
12. Gulf Coast


How about none of those places.
Good Morning.

I think this is the quietest streatch of Tropical weather I have seen in a few years, days of no storms. (back to back even!) I'm hoping that allows the arctic to keep its chill on and for all that first year ice to keep reflecting the sunlight.
We need a nice nostalgic and cool year with just above average rain and snowfall.
I'm hoping for high wind shear that keeps tropical storms and their heat in the tropics and mid-lattitudes and doesn't stir the oceans much.
We can all hope.
Weather 456 where would a hurricane hit then or do you think it will be all in the middle of the ocean like 2006
925. K8e1
yes biff that windshear would be great for the entire us coastline
924. all4hurricanes 7:59 AM AST on April 09, 2008
Weather 456 where would a hurricane hit then or do you think it will be all in the middle of the ocean like 2006


I was jokin....I wouldnt like any place to be devasted by hurricane this year.
924. all4hurricanes 7:59 AM AST on April 09, 2008
Weather 456 where would a hurricane hit then or do you think it will be all in the middle of the ocean like 2006


The highest risk areas per my forecast....is just along the northern Caribbean and East Coast of the US south of the North Carolina.
Betting on Folks calamity is as low as a snails belly.
We dont do that here.
Im sure you can get a line on it at Vegas on the Big board...or join the few blogging here that have such entries.
Good morning all. Looks like we have some potential severe weather outbreaks to look after today. This setup will be interesting Nova.
Hurricane Experts Likely to Raise 2008 Storm Predictions Today

By Demian McLean

April 9 (Bloomberg) -- Hurricane forecasters probably will boost the number of expected 2008 Atlantic storms when they update their prediction for the season today, meteorologists say.

William Gray and Philip Klotzbach of Colorado State University, whose predictions are closely watched by insurers, energy markets and local governments, are scheduled to release their forecast by 11:30 a.m. New York time. Their preliminary report in December predicted 13 named storms this year, including seven hurricanes, three of them major.

``We think the forecast is going to be relatively aggressive,'' Michael Schlacter, chief meteorologist at Manhattan-based Weather 2000, which serves energy traders, said in an interview. ``Conditions are favorable for the formation of Atlantic hurricanes.''

Schlacter predicted the team at CSU's Tropical Meteorology Project would forecast two additional hurricanes, one of them major, for the season that begins in June and runs to the end of November. Gray and Klotzbach have offered a preview of hurricane seasons for almost a quarter-century and typically fine-tune them at this time of year.


It has begun.
Colorado State University's next hurricane forecast will be issued on Wednesday, April 9 from the Bahamas Weather Conference By Dr. Gray..by 11:30 am EST

Summary of 2007 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity and Verification of Author's Seasonal and Monthly Forecasts published. Link


Tropical Meteorology Project's Forecasts page.Link
We are expecting a cold front next week, but, even so, I predict an early start to this years hurricane season. I think we will have something to watch next month...a wave, depression, tropical storm...something...HOPING I am wrong...I was last year...
Looks like a Bumpy,and deadly afternoon into evening StormW. Good morning to yas.
Good morning, everyone!
Lotsa Wind fetching in from here.Itsa blowing in from the GOM this morning.Link

FAll returns this Weekend too.UNYSIS 10-day GFSx Link

NWS Slidell

Long term...
moderate to strong onshore flow persists through Thursday night
before gradient relaxes as next cold front approaches Friday
morning. This front should continue to push east through the
forecast area by late Friday with a considerable amount of cold
air advection to follow into Saturday. Overnight temperatures in
the interior sections of forecast area will likely challenge the
upper 30s as deep upper level trough digs down the Appalachians.
Mild conditions to continue into early next week with a steady
warming trend through next Wednesday.
Good Morning All........Guess the weather problem of the day will be the severe weather threat for the Mid-CONUS later today.....Let's hope that it will not be that bad and that the folks out there keep an eye on the weather and news and NWS (especially if the storms get bad after dark in the evening).......
Where should I go to look for Gray's update today?
AWeatherLover: Go to google and google search coloradoe state university hurricane april forecast...
Hello, CaneAddict and AWeatherLover!
Or Aweatherlover Click Here.
Good morning stormdude77. Are you awaiting the updated hurricane forecast like i am? I personally believe they are going to aggressively up the forecast based on several factors.
Thunderstorms are moving into SW and Western Oklahoma from the Texas panhandle.
This chart will self-update:



morning all. Dont like the looks of that GFSx loop, Pat. But thanks for posting it.
I have to remind myself that the cold weather can still encroach on us here in the NE...I'm getting too used to this warm sunny weather. Yesterday it was over 70...and GORGEOUS!!!

Anyone know the history of hurricane landfalls near Tampa, Fl.? I got into a dispute..Some Tampa residents seem to think they wont get a storm with winds over 60mph... I think thats just silly. They claim there hasnt been any in over 40 years....I thought someone might have some info on this handy here. I just dont buy that arguement.

Thanks again.
Yes I am, CaneAddict! I think there's going to be much discussion, whether he lowers his numbers or not... JMO
950. LakeShadow 8:08 AM CST on April 09, 2008
morning all. Anyone know the history of hurricane landfalls near Tampa, Fl.? I got into a dispute..Some Tampa residents seem to think they wont get a storm with winds over 60mph... I think thats just silly.
Thanks again.


I can't find it right now but there is an older NWS chart (through 2001) which has all the hurricane strikes on Florida charted, going back to about the 1940's, and the Tampa area is pretty "light" on the map.....The most heavy area of strikes, on the Southern end of FL is from Naples around to Miami/FT. Lauderdale/Palm Beach, and, in the Florida Panhandle from Panama City area westward......The relative "safe zones" for Florida does seem to be from Tampa to the Big Bend on the West Coast, and, from Palm Beach to Jacksonville on the East Coast....
interesting. thanks weathermanwannabe.
Not sure what the "measuring test" is (in terms of once a storm approaches Florida or what) but here is the average probability for some of the cities in Florida (over time) which supports the earlier post......[this is from floridahurricane net]

Florida Hurricane Strike Probability Statistics
Hurricane strike probabilities are only statistical estimates.

Pensacola 1 in 8
Apalachicola 1 in 17
Tampa 1 in 25
Ft. Myers 1 in 11
Key West 1 in 8
Miami 1 in 6Palm Beach 1 in 7
Vero Beach 1 in 20
Melbourne 1 in 20
Daytona Beach 1 in 50
Jacksonville 1 in 100


Notice how Miami area has been the most prone in Florida and how Jacksonville has been the least prone........
There has been some rumblings that South Florida water restrictions might be eased a little bit.
I don't think anyone has posted this here today....this is the latest from this morning:


S. Fla. water managers may soon allow twice-a-week watering.
By Sally Apgar | South Florida Sun-Sentinel
9:52 PM EDT, April 8, 2008

Three months of rain and countywide conservation efforts have stemmed the drain on Lake Okeechobee and led to a recommendation that water managers ease the tight Phase III restrictions that now allow South Floridians to water their lawns or wash cars only one day a week.

With above-average rainfall since February, the staff of the South Florida Water Management District is recommending that the governing board adopt looser Phase II restrictions. Those restrictions would allow the majority of residents in the 16-county district — about 7.5 million people — to water their lawn two days a week.

The governing board meets Thursday.

"It's very encouraging that conditions are not mirroring what they did last year," district spokesman Randy Smith said. "Last year, the bottom fell out and we hit an all-time low in July."
Hey guys, NOAA wants us to comment on the new experimental TC windfield graphic to be used this season. See an example posted at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnhcgraphics.shtml#initialwind

This product will be produced for all storms this season.

From email:

"PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...COMMENT REQUEST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS WASHINGTON DC
1030 AM EDT WED APR 9 2008

TO: SUBSCRIBERS:
-FAMILY OF SERVICES
-NOAA WEATHER WIRE SERVICE
-EMERGENCY MANAGERS WEATHER INFORMATION NETWORK
OTHER NWS PARTNERS...USERS AND EMPLOYEES

FROM: THERESE Z. PIERCE
CHIEF...MARINE AND COASTAL SERVICES BRANCH

SUBJECT: SOLICITING COMMENTS FOR EXPERIMENTAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE WIND FIELD GRAPHIC THROUGH NOVEMBER 30 2008

BEGINNING MAY 15 2008 AND CONTINUING THROUGH NOVEMBER 30 2008
... NWS IS SEEKING USER FEEDBACK ON AN EXPERIMENTAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE WIND FIELD GRAPHIC.

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE PRODUCED WITH EACH FULL ADVISORY PACKAGE FOR
TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE ATLANTIC AND EASTERN
PACIFIC HURRICANE BASINS. THIS GRAPHIC ILLUSTRATES THE AREAS
POTENTIALLY BEING AFFECTED BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SUSTAINED WINDS OF
VARYING FORCE.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND FIELD THE GRAPHIC SHOWS AN APPROXIMATE
REPRESENTATION OF COASTAL AREAS UNDER A HURRICANE WARNING...
HURRICANE WATCH...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND TROPICAL STORM
WATCH. A WHITE DOT INDICATES THE CURRENT POSITION OF THE CENTER
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THE DASHED BLACK LINE SHOWS THE
HISTORY OF THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.

DURING PERIODS OF ACTIVE STORMS THE PRODUCT WILL BE ONLINE AT:
/USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:

HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/

A COMPREHENSIVE DESCRIPTION AND EXAMPLE IS POSTED AT:
/USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:

HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTNHCGRAPHICS.SHTML#INITIALWIND

USERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK ON THIS EXPERIMENTAL
PRODUCT BY USING THE BRIEF SURVEY AND COMMENT FORM AVAILABLE AT
/USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:

HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=TWFG

A LINK TO ALL NHC EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCTS IS ALSO PROVIDED AT
/USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:

HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTEXPERIMENTAL.SHTML
"
As a matter of factual data, in the 151 yr history of hurricanes ther has NEVER been a MAJOR hurricane (Cat III or greater) make a landfall north of Fort Pierce,FL or south of Savannah, GA.
The strike probabilities do not include that tidbit...
Make that 151 yr history of recorded hurricanes... obviously the beasties themselves have been around quite a bit longer...
957. heavyweatherwatcher 3:21 PM GMT on April 09, 2008 Hide this comment.
As a matter of factual data, in the 151 yr history of hurricanes ther has NEVER been a MAJOR hurricane (Cat III or greater) make a landfall north of Fort Pierce,FL or south of Savannah, GA.
The strike probabilities do not include that tidbit...


New Orlenes "We never get any damage from Hurricanes, they never hit there." It can happen, Hurricanes can hit anywere on the US coast, from Maine to Texas.
Dr. Gray's forecast is up...

Link
Apparently the 2008 Season will be,
15 Named Storms
80 Named Storm Days
8 Hurricanes
4 Intense Hurricanes
ACE 150.
With a higher risk for Landfall in the US than last year.
957. heavyweatherwatcher 9:21 AM CST on April 09, 2008
As a matter of factual data, in the 151 yr history of hurricanes ther has NEVER been a MAJOR hurricane (Cat III or greater) make a landfall north of Fort Pierce,FL or south of Savannah, GA.
The strike probabilities do not include that tidbit...


I have no idea if there is any scientific basis for it (or merely a matter of geometry/trajectory analysis in terms of when, and from where, storms approach the SE US coast) but I am intrigued by the fact that the majority of storms seem to follow "the curve" of the Florida Big Bend in the Gulf, or, the "the curve" from Mid-Florida up through the Carolinas before they are taken inland (to parts West of Panama City or parts North of Savannah)..........
Hit- yes, by a major, not probable... anything is possible... I've lived in FL since 1955. I grew up in S FL (Hollywood) during the middle to end of the last big 'cane cycle- we had a 'cane every year (it seemed) whether we needed them or not- and many were majors. I now live in Titusville. I live here for a reason. I understand and respect the big pinwheels...
If you look at the SSTs you'll see a tongue of cooler water inland of the Gulfstream from where it bears off from the FL coast @ ~Stuart to where it passes off- paralleling- the NC coast. South of Stuart a storm stays over very warm, shallow water; north it is a bit deeper and cooler... observational data, but I'm sure it is relevant.
Yeah....A lot of the East Coast storms like to "ride" the Gulf Stream as they head up towards the Carolinas (Floyd in 99 comes to mind)...............

Australian storm?
Just scanned Dr. Gray's report and it goes without saying that it is just a "prediction", and an early one at that, although it will be analized by us and Dr. M for days to come.........It also goes without saying (as, personally, I am not going to engage in "number speculation" this season) that I truly hope that what we do not get (reverse wishcasting...sorry)is a storm that disrupts oil production in the Gulf which would affect so many Americans nationwide in this time of high gasoline prices..........(not to mention any people, in the US or anywhere in the Carribean, which would have to deal with such an unwelcome calamity as Patrap mentioned earlier)...
1848 sept 25 landfall cat 3 or greater near fort brooke tampa bay storm was so strong surge so great that it create a new water way now in our time called new pass
the surface trough in the CATL is beginning to look like a tropical wave with an axis near 36w which will bring showers to the winwards and trinidad on the weekend.
the surface trough in the CATL is beginning to look like a tropical wave with an axis near 36w which will bring showers to the winwards and trinidad on the weekend.

Yes, and I can't wait... it's been pretty dry here (in Barbados)...
april forecast 15 named storms 8 hurricanes and 4 intense hurricanes. released 20 mins ago
also in 1848 a eastward moving major from gom made landfall on fla panhadle on oct 11 also an early season major made land fall in s cen la aug 18 cotton crop destroy that year as well thats 3 majors in one season
If you want, you can discuss the April Hurricane forecast on my blog... Link
Excerpt from the CSU REPORT

5 Current Atlantic Basin Conditions
Current conditions in the Atlantic basin are quite favorable for an active hurricane
season. Both of our early April predictors call for a very active hurricane season in 2008.
The current sea surface temperature pattern in the Atlantic is a pattern typically observed
before very active seasons. Waters off the coast of Iberia as well as the eastern tropical
Atlantic are very warm right now (Figure 6). The Azores High has also been quite weak
during the month of March. Typically, a weakened Azores High leads to weaker trade
winds that enhance warm SST anomalies due to reduced levels of evaporation, mixing
and upwelling in the eastern tropical Atlantic.
Our final April statistical model calls for a hyper-active season with an NTC of
190 (Table 10). Due to the uncertainty with current ENSO conditions, we do not feel
confident enough to raise our forecast that high at this point, however, if current trends in
the Atlantic persist, there is a possibility that the forecast could be increased more in early
June.

Yikes!!!
I'm sure the good Doctor is currently working his blog posting regarding Dr. Gray's latest forecast, and will post a new blog later today discussing his expert opinion on it. I do expect that we will get a more active year this time around. We got a break in 2006 and in 2007, but it's probably not going to last for a third year. I think someone's bound to get whacked this time. So heads up.
If anyone hasn't read as of yet...

My forecast for the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season - Issued March 10th.
It looks like SSTs in the Atlantic, are finally beginning to warm up, we'll see if it continues (although it should)...

The actual "numbers" at the end of the day/season will not be as critical as the higher probability for formation (and a threat to land) due to very favorable conditions for an active season (at present) which makes hightened awareness and preparedness all the more important this coming year..............Seems to me that weaker highs (Azores and Bermuda) may be the biggest factor in terms of where the greatest potential for a threat will emerge..........
Yeah, a weaker Bermuda high would mean more bends to the right in the track of hurricanes, which means more landfalls on the Gulf Coast and up the East coast, versus being driven deep down into Central America and Mexico like what happened last year.
Next strong cold front by the beginning of next week should somewhat cool down the GOM and Western Atlantic .....in and out....bye
1. The GOM/Tatl is still cool, but not below average for this time of year.

2. I've raised my forecast dramatically. From 3 tropical storms to 13, and from 0 hurricanes to five.

3. If the Bermuda High swings too far east we might see all fish storms again...ONOZ!

4. StormTOP/StormKat won't be here this hurricane season, because he died.

5. AWL is VERY hot.

6. I'm going to a basketball game tonight, so I won't be around.
OK place your bets what places will get hit by a devastating hurricane this year

1. The Carolinas
2. Texas
3. New England
4. Puerto Rico
5. Florida
6. Hispaniola
7. Cuba
8. Mexico
9. Leeward Islands
10. Central america
11. Jamaica
12. Gulf Coast