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Arctic Sea Ice May Reach Second-Lowest Extent on Record This Month

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 4:18 PM GMT on September 03, 2015

A burst of late-season loss over the last several weeks has put the Arctic Ocean’s ice cover within reach of the lowest extent observed in any year except 2012. The extent values tracked by the National Snow and Ice Data Center, or NSIDC (see Figure 1), show that 2015 has caught up to several other recent years in the amount of ice depleted, and is poised to surpass 2011 and 2007 if the rapid loss continues. The milestone is a timely one, given this week’s historic Alaskan visit by President Barack Obama.

NSIDC reviewed the near-term outlook for sea ice in an update posted on Wednesday: “There is still a possibility that 2015 extent will be lower than 4.3 million square kilometers, the third lowest sea ice extent, surpassing the 2011 sea ice extent minimum, and a small chance of surpassing 2007, resulting in the second-lowest daily minimum. This assumes that we continue to have sea ice loss rates at least as fast as those of 2010. This was indeed the case for the final ten days of August 2015.”

As explained by NSIDC with a swiss-cheese analogy, sea ice extent refers to the amount of ocean covered by at least 15 percent ice concentration (the dimensions of the slice of cheese), whereas sea ice area is the literal amount of ocean covered by ice, not counting the holes. Arctic ice normally reaches its maximum extent in March and its minimum in September. The ice extent drops in spring and summer largely as a result of melting (from below and above), though it can also be influenced by compaction (which pushes broken-up areas of ice together, reducing the total ice extent). Another factor is a pattern of atmospheric pressure called the Arctic Dipole, which favors Asia-to-Europe cross-polar flow that can push ice out the Fram Strait into the North Atlantic, hastening ice depletion.



Figure 1. Sea ice extent across the Arctic Ocean for the period August-November, 1979-2015. This year’s extent was just over 4.6 million square kilometers on September 2, and dropping rapidly, with only the 2012 curve falling much lower. Nine of the 10 lowest extent values have occurred within the last decade. Image credit: NSIDC.


There’s still plenty of darkness and cold air to foster ice-cover regrowth across most of the Arctic each winter, but the summer minima have plummeted in recent decades (see Figure 1). With just weeks left before net ice expansion resumes, it’s all but impossible for 2015 to catch up to 2012. That year saw the lowest extent since satellite records began in 1979 (3.41 million square km, or about 50% below the typical minimum observed in the 1980s and 1990s). However, a minimum in the vicinity of 4.2 to 4.3 million sq km seems within reach. That would be well below the average value of 4.8 million sq km predicted by an array of 38 participants in the latest monthly Sea Ice Outlook produced by the Sea Ice Prediction Network. By that time this forecast was issued (August 20), Arctic ice extent had come off near record-low values for late spring, recovered somewhat by early summer—thanks in part to a cold June across the Arctic, with relatively little melting--and dipped again in August, with fairly steady losses through the month. Then came a surprisingly strong cyclone that developed across the Beaufort Sea last week. High winds and seas from that storm helped weaken a large arm of multi-year ice extending from the central Arctic into the Beaufort Sea. The storm also brought punishing waves and erosion to the Alaskan coast near Barrow (see Figure 2).


Figure 2. High surf batters the coast near downtown Barrow, Alaska, on August 27, 2015. Image source: Barrow Sea Ice Webcam, tweeted by Brian Brettschneider


Figure 3. This intense surface cyclone disrupted a large chunk of Arctic sea ice that extended from the Central Arctic into the Beaufort Sea. Analysis for 0000 GMT on August 27, 2015, shows sea level pressure (in green); potential temperature at the tropopause, a marker of upper-level energy that can help foster surface cyclones (in black); and the extent of Arctic sea ice (grey shading, with concentration fraction shown by the bar at right). A corresponding animation shows the sequence of events beginning on August 16 and segues into a model prediction from August 2 to September 9. Image credit: Steven Cavallo, University of Oklahoma.


What’s ahead this month and beyond?
“It is still pretty stormy over the Arctic,” said Steven Cavallo, a University of Oklahoma meteorologist who specializes in polar weather. Cavallo has researched tropopause polar vortices (TPVs) and their relationship to surface cyclones. “There are a lot of TPVs around, meaning the potential for surface cyclone formation is high, so I think the forecast sensitivity is very high right now and there could still be some significant ice loss.” Recent model runs have flip-flopped in predicting additional strong cyclones over the Arctic over the next few days. Cavallo hypothesizes this could be related to the difficult-to-predict effects of tropical cyclones recurving into the polar jet stream. At the Arctic Sea Ice Blog and Forum, there’s been a lot of conversation along these lines. “People on the forum are speculating on and off about a 'train' of cyclones, either Atlantic or Pacific, injecting heat and moisture into the Arctic,” said blog/forum founder Neven Acropolis in an email. Two good places to follow the dialogue are “The 2015 melting season” thread and Acropolis’s own excellent posts.


Figure 4. Sea ice concentration for September 1, 2015, as calculated by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Areas shaded in lighter blue denote reduced concentration (area) within the overall bounds of ice extent. Image credit: NSIDC.


The ice that’s managing to persist across the Arctic this summer doesn’t look especially healthy. Polar climate specialist Jennifer Francis (Rutgers University) calls out the warning signs conveyed in the most recent ice concentration image from NSIDC (see Figure 4, at right). “Much of the ice that's left is either slushy, severely broken up, or covered in melt ponds,” Francis noted. Depletion is especially large on the Pacific side of the Arctic, she added, which recent work suggests may favor a severe winter in parts of eastern North America. Much research in the last few years by Francis and others has worked to draw connections between Arctic sea ice loss, high-latitude warming, and midlatitude winter weather. A new entry in this mini-discipline is a paper published last week in Nature Geoscience that links two modes of warm Arctic weather to subsequent winter cold downstream across East Asia and North America.

The power of this year’s still-strengthening El Niño event may be enough to swamp whatever influence the decline of Arctic sea ice might have on the upcoming winter across North America. Sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) are cooling over the western tropical Pacific in tandem with the building El Niño warmth over the eastern tropical Pacific. A number of studies (nicely summarized by Daniel Swain at California Weather Blog) suggest that the western-Pacific cooling will help lead to more storminess over the Gulf of Alaska, which in turn could finally erode the persistently warm SSTs and the “ridiculously resilient ridge” of high pressure that have prevailed in that area for most of the last two years. If so, a pathway will be carved for the classic El Niño signature of very mild winter temperatures across most of Canada and the northern United States, in line with the latest seasonal forecasts from NOAA. If, instead, we see a third consecutive winter of unusual cold across the U.S. Midwest and Northeast, it’ll be a strong sign that another player is onstage. Judah Cohen (Atmospheric and Environmental Research) bases his North American winter forecasts in part on the apparent relationship between low Arctic sea ice extent and cold Northern Hemisphere winters. “I really do think that this could be a very interesting winter and could be very informative on the interplay of tropical vs. Arctic forcing,” said Cohen in an email. “Can the Arctic, as a forcing agent of mid-latitude weather, finally step out out of the shadow of the tropics or not?”



Figure 5. Both the Arctic and Antarctic rack up more than 12 million square klilometers of sea ice extent each winter, but the summer ice depletion is greater in the Antarctic, where the ice sits at lower latitudes. Image credit: The Cryosphere Today/University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.

Why it matters
Although a coating of ice does return to most of the Arctic Ocean each winter, the persistence of ice through the summer is a vital part of the region’s ecosystem. Polar bears, ringed seals, and other wildlife use the ice as a platform for hunting prey and raising their young. Many indigenous residents of the lands circling the Arctic have also relied on the presence of year-round ice for centuries. The picture is far different at the other end of the world: instead of being surrounded by ocean, the South Pole lies at the heart of the landmass of Antarctica. Sea ice in this hemisphere develops on the fringes of Antarctica, which puts it at a lower latitude than most Arctic sea ice. As a result, nearly all of the ice that forms each winter around Antarctica melts back each summer. The average wintertime extent of ice around Antarctica has actually grown slightly in recent years, for reasons not fully understood. This is often falsely presented as “balancing” the loss of Arctic sea ice, but the Arctic loss is far more substantial than the Antarctic gain, and much more important to regional climate, ecology, and economy. Ice-free navigation is now once again possible in the Arctic along the coast of Canada (the southern route of the fabled Northwest Passage), and has been open for over a month along the coast of Russia (the Northeast Passage or Northern Sea Route.) Mariners have been attempting to sail these passages since 1497; the first time they were open for ice-free navigation without an icebreaker was in 2005 for the Northeast Passage and 2007 for the Northwest Passage. The continuing erosion of summer ice cover in the Arctic has stoked interest in expanding industrial activity across the region, including oil and gas development--an ironic turn of events, given the role of fossil-fuel-produced greenhouse gases in the worldwide warming of recent decades.

Tropical Atlantic: Tenacious Fred hangs on
Tropical Storm Fred has been in “never say die” mode, hanging on as a minimal tropical storm on Thursday morning as it drifted across the eastern Atlantic. New thunderstorms blossomed on the east side of Fred’s circulation center on Wednesday night into Thursday, despite stout wind shear of more than 35 mph. By midday Thursday, only a much smaller patch of convection was located just north of Fred’s exposed center. The shear is expected to increase, and the National Hurricane Center expects Fred to become a remnant low by Friday. NHC is mentioning the possibility, though, that Fred could spring back to life in five days, when the storm will encounter lower wind shear and anomalously warm waters of 27.5°C (82°F) over 500 miles southwest of the Azores Islands.

New tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa has potential to develop
A strong tropical wave with plenty of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity will move off the coast of Africa by Thursday night, and has the potential to become a tropical depression early next week as the storm moves west at 15 - 20 mph. The 00Z Thursday (8 pm EDT Wednesday) runs of two of our top three models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the GFS and European models, predicted that this new wave would become a tropical depression in the waters southwest of the Cape Verde islands by Monday. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 10% and 40%, respectively. The tropical Atlantic is relatively moist, has the highest sea surface temperatures of the year, and is expected to have low to moderate wind shear, conditions which favor development. The wave should take about 7 - 8 days to make it to the Lesser Antilles Islands.


Figure 6.Typhoon Kilo and Hurricanes Ignacio and Jimena, all captured in this infrared image from the GOES-West satellite at 1330 GMT (9:30 am) Thursday, September 3, 2015. Image credit: NOAA/NHC and Michael Lowry, The Weather Channel.

Pacific continues to bristle with tropical cyclones
The Northeast Pacific has a new named system, Tropical Storm Kevin. As of 11 am EDT Thursday, Kevin’s top sustained winds had increased to 50 mph. Kevin is expected to live out the rest of its life below hurricane strength over open water before increasing amounts of shear and mid-level dry air take their toll. Some moisture associated with Kevin will be working its way into Colorado and New Mexico through Saturday ahead of a large upper-level trough approaching the region, enhancing shower and thunderstorm activity there. In the Central Pacific, powerful Hurricane Jimena is very slowly weakening but remains a high-end Category 2 as it embarks on a broad cyclonic loop well northeast of Hawaii over the next few days. We’ll have to keep an eye on Jimena in the long range, as the recent runs of the GFS and European models bring Jimena back toward Hawaii from the northeast late next week, still as a tropical storm. Such a scenario might be dismissed out of hand in any other year, but with SSTs so warm in the Central and Northeast Pacific, Jimena could conceivably remain over waters at or above the threshold of 26°C (79°F) over most or all of such a trek. Meanwhile, Hurricane Ignacio, now a Category 1 storm north of Hawaii, is also weakening but remains impressively well-structured, with extensive spiral banding. Ignacio is on track to plow into the Gulf of Alaska as a powerful extratropical storm by early next week. En route, Ignacio will pass over unusually warm waters along the way, with sea-surface temperatures up to 3-4°C (5.4-7.2°F) above average (though eventually too cool to support Ignacio as a tropical cyclone).

Ultra-resilient Typhoon Kilo is now in its 14th day as a tropical cyclone, including a long spell as a major hurricane. Kilo is predicted to steadily reintensify over the next 3-4 days, again reaching Category 4 strength by Tuesday as it moves on a westward loop that will likely take it several hundred miles north of Wake Island. In the long range, Kilo may pose a threat to Japan.

We’ll be back with our next update on Friday.

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters


Arctic Climate Change Hurricane Sea Ice

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

faster and faster

thanks
nice lunch time read
yesterday Toronto saw the highest temp of 2015
hey bob you for got too add ex Erika seems like its comeing back
Good Morning Kevin

Quoting 3. Tazmanian:

hey bob you for got too add ex Erika seems like its comeing back


Taz,

She sure is. Looking Blob-worthy.

Thanks doks!
surfs up. if i surfed up there by the north pole i'd be packing you know great whites other man eaters. looks like the windshear is getting worse by erica
So Kilo's cone went from this...


...to this.


Amazing.
The remnants of Erika are indeed firing up nicely off the Southeast US coast today. We'll keep a close eye on it!

--Bob H.
Hey guys, check out Bryan Norcross' Wunderground blog- a really good article on the "Erika Emergency."
Quoting 11. BobHenson:

The remnants of Erika are indeed firing up nicely off the Southeast US coast today. We'll keep a close eye on it!

--Bob H.
Watch Erika make a come back and form stronger than she ever was!
Quoting 10. 62901IL:

So Kilo's cone went from this...


...to this.


Amazing.


That's about as bad as the model guidance with Erika!
Quoting 3. Tazmanian:

hey bob you for got too add ex Erika seems like its comeing back
Good morning Taz!! Have you given any more thought to changing your avatar?? The white water rafting one was fun and adventuresome and was fitting for you. The new one is kind of depressing and a downer. Thanks!
Quoting 13. Camerooski:

Watch Erika make a come back and form stronger than she ever was!


That shouldn't be too hard since her entire life has been nothing but a sheared mess.
17. 7544
Quoting 13. Camerooski:

Watch Erika make a come back and form stronger than she ever was!


and head back south to bahamas ?
Quoting 13. Camerooski:

Watch Erika make a come back and form stronger than she ever was!


The cmc wants her to make a come back and ride up the East coast before making her way out to sea.


Quoting 19. cyberian:



The cmc wants her to make a come back and ride up the East coast before making her way out to sea.





And I'm getting something.
Quoting 12. opal92nwf:

Hey guys, check out Bryan Norcross' Wunderground blog- a really good article on the "Erika Emergency."


I can see his point on the 5-day forecast. Rarely do they ever pan out and I don't know if they are necessary. I understand the necessity of it, but I don't think it should be part of the general public dialogue. Anyone know how to track the validity of 5-day forecasts?
Quoting 21. rxse7en:



I can see his point on the 5-day forecast. Rarely do they ever pan out and I don't know if they are necessary. I understand the necessity of it, but I don't think it should be part of the general public dialogue. Anyone know how to track the validity of 5-day forecasts?
All you ever want to know is here:http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/
Quoting 21. rxse7en:



I can see his point on the 5-day forecast. Rarely do they ever pan out and I don't know if they are necessary. I understand the necessity of it, but I don't think it should be part of the general public dialogue. Anyone know how to track the validity of 5-day forecasts?


From the last blog:

#320, Mahfl:
The Gulf Stream always helps tropical cyclones, it's warm water, not winds, I think your confused.

I was asking if Erika could cross the Gulf Stream and make it back in one piece.. i.e. head back West towards the GOM.

At the time - any other Texans/LA getting this? - the local actual had been ~98 yesterday and today, down to forecast 94 and low 90s for the next ten days with a little chance pops but now suddenly it's 94/73, 97/75, 98/74, 100/74, 100/75, 99/74, 99/74, 99/74 and 0< chance pops, a terrible disappointment updated at 11aCentral.

This has me worried that they see Erika crossing back over FL into the GOM, her windfield on Sunday big enough to give TX hot, high winds like TS Lee did in '11, bellowing up unprecedented wildfires in Centex and elsewhere. Did anybody else's forecast from TX to MS suddenly rocket up back into the 100s?
What is up with the staying power of these Pac Storms? did a container of Levitra go overboard earlier this year?

Ok so

Erika could be making a comeback Fred expected to weaken and make a comeback
91L soon to be tagged off the W coast of Africa "PRE 91L"
Also looks to be a soon to be invest behind PRE 91L


Quoting 2. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

yesterday Toronto saw the highest temp of 2015
2015 F of C?? (not that it makes a lot of difference being that hot!) ;)
Quoting 28. wunderkidcayman:

Ok so

Erika could be making a comeback Fred expected to weaken and make a comeback
91L soon to be tagged off the W coast of Africa "PRE 91L"
Also looks to be a soon to be invest behind PRE 91L



Active.
Quoting 29. JNFlori30A:

2015 F of C?? (not that it makes a lot of difference being that hot!)
2015 is year
one of my contactors told me this am
just in on lunch be done soon
back to the oven
I got to go look
I know heat index was 105
its already 98 today
heat index is the killer
Quoting 11. BobHenson:

The remnants of Erika are indeed firing up nicely off the Southeast US coast today. We'll keep a close eye on it!

--Bob H.


maybe invest 91L SOON!
No chance the upper low SE of Texas makes it down to the surface right?



maybe hit the northeast!
Last night on the WU show on TWC they were discussing El Nino and I walked in late and they were talking about how much the blob or pool was going to have on El Nino. I can't remember if it was blob or pool but they kept bringing it up and missed what they were talking about. Can anybody fill in the missing piece to the puzzle, what was the blob or pool they were talking about?
good yr for model failures
Quoting 28. wunderkidcayman:

Ok so

Erika could be making a comeback Fred expected to weaken and make a comeback
91L soon to be tagged off the W coast of Africa "PRE 91L"
Also looks to be a soon to be invest behind PRE 91L




And they was complaining about the season :P never seen so many storms fight with such persistence in one season... Never truly dead and gone attitude...
It would be nice if Erika was to comeback Fred to comeback PRE 91L possibly as TS Grace at the same time
It would be the first time we had more than 1 storm out in the Atlantic active at the same time for this 2015 season
Hurricane peak time and we have articles on sea ice.
Quoting 15. Llamaluvr:

Good morning Taz!! Have you given any more thought to changing your avatar?? The white water rafting one was fun and adventuresome and was fitting for you. The new one is kind of depressing and a downer. Thanks!



you no what deal with it you guys have no right too tell me what avatar i can or can not uesd the olny ones that can do that are mods or Admins i will changed it but when i am ready too do so and not when you guys tell me too


come back again
Quoting 39. muddertracker:

Hurricane peak time and we have articles on sea ice.


Umm mate it seems you obviously didn't read the whole blog post

Arctic Sea Ice May Reach Second-Lowest Extent on Record This Month.
What’s ahead this month and beyond?
Why it matters.
Tropical Atlantic: Tenacious Fred hangs on.
New tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa has potential to develop.
Pacific continues to bristle with tropical cyclones.
Here's a little piece I wrote about surfing beneath Erika's remnants this morning at a remote sandbar off Folly Beach. Link

Quoting 38. wunderkidcayman:

It would be nice if Erika was to comeback Fred to comeback PRE 91L possibly as TS Grace at the same time
It would be the first time we had more than 1 storm out in the Atlantic active at the same time for this 2015 season
i hope it happern i love to see three storms at the same time in the atlantic
disturbance in the upper levels near puerto rico could help them and maybe even carib boy get some showers
Quoting 42. wunderkidcayman:



Umm mate it seems you obviously didn't read the whole blog post

Arctic Sea Ice May Reach Second-Lowest Extent on Record This Month.
What’s ahead this month and beyond?
Why it matters.
Tropical Atlantic: Tenacious Fred hangs on.
New tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa has potential to develop.
Pacific continues to bristle with tropical cyclones.



:) I didn't get that far :) Seems like I need a little more caffeine :)
Quoting 41. hurricanes2018:



come back again


Fred just don't wanna quit even when he becomes post tropical he is expected to make a come back
Quoting 39. muddertracker:

Hurricane peak time and we have articles on sea ice.

Hey MT have you looked at your forecast this AM? You - in CP - are about 10m away from me in LV.
JAX long-range radar Doesn't look like there's too much precip associated with Ex-Erika.
Umm Hawaii?

Quoting 48. redwagon:


Hey MT have you looked at your forecast this AM? You - in CP - are about 10m away from me in LV.


Love Lago. Great place. LIving off that 15% chance of precip! We need it.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 21.5N 34.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 21.9N 35.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 22.3N 37.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/0000Z 22.6N 38.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/1200Z 23.0N 40.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/1200Z 25.0N 42.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/1200Z 27.5N 41.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/1200Z 30.5N 38.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
Quoting 43. Follysurfer:

Here's a little piece I wrote about surfing beneath Erika's remnants this morning at a remote sandbar off Folly Beach. Link




We had some wicked lightning from that system passing by last night. It was like the invasion scene from the recent War of the Worlds. I've been in Florida for 20 years now and have not seen lightning like I did last evening. Daughter plays soccer and they have lightning alarms, but the storm was far enough away not to trigger them.
Quoting 46. muddertracker:



:) I didn't get that far :) Seems like I need a little more caffeine :)


Two more cups should do the trick
Quoting 40. Tazmanian:






relax taz

I think it just that the dryness in the picture
has a sense of sadness to it

maybe you will change it up after cali gets the rains again
Thanks a lot for this extensive coverage of the conditions of poor arctic sea ice, doc 'n bob! Bad news for polar bears and further on for other folks like us ... And good evening from Germany.

As Norway isn't that far away from the arctic I may report that there was/is serious flooding in its southern parts due to a cyclone dubbed "Jonas" which has formed over the North Sea the last days. Wetteronline.de reports Norwegians saw up to 160 mm (6,3 inches) of precipitation in 36 hours.

Widespread flooding also halts trains
September 2, 2015
UPDATED: Flooding from the torrential rain that poured down over much of southern Norway this week has now forced the closure of both major rail lines that connect Oslo with Bergen and Kristiansand. Officials at state railroad Jernbaneverket weren't sure Thursday morning when either Bergensbanen or Sorlandsbanen could reopen.
The heavy rain triggered a landslide during the night on state highway RV7 between Orgenvika and Gulsvik in the valley of Hallingdal in Buskerud County. The slide has also blocked tracks just east of Gulsvik.
Other trains including the heavily used commuter line through Spikkestad and Asker west of Oslo were also halted and officials at state railway NSB said they were having trouble finding enough buses to provide alternative transportation. Railroad crews were struggling with washed out tracks and power failures caused by what NSB called "the extreme weather."...

Whole article see link above.


European airmass pic from yesterday shows the cyclone in the north.

Quoting 49. rxse7en:

JAX long-range radar Doesn't look like there's too much precip associated with Ex-Erika.
Our forecast has been TERRIBLE for the past two weeks, anything past 60 hours out. I mean, really total fail. Like yesterday, they had 60% heavy rain- I saw 0.03".
Duval Co has seen better forecasting here on Doc's blog, than on the NOAA site. With the exception of the sarcastic and opinionated Mr. Heard, that is.

(don't make me totally blow your cover, Mr. Heard)

oh yeah Rx7vn- that WAS some kinda light show last night!!!
Quoting 35. 69Viking:

Last night on the WU show on TWC they were discussing El Nino and I walked in late and they were talking about how much the blob or pool was going to have on El Nino. I can't remember if it was blob or pool but they kept bringing it up and missed what they were talking about. Can anybody fill in the missing piece to the puzzle, what was the blob or pool they were talking about?
It's the anomalously warm water in the Northeastern Pacific, unrelated to El Nino.
Quoting 57. aquak9:

Our forecast has been TERRIBLE for the past two weeks, anything past 60 hours out. I mean, really total fail. Like yesterday, they had 60% heavy rain- I saw 0.03".
Duval Co has seen better forecasting here on Doc's blog, than on the NOAA site. With the exception of the sarcastic and opinionated Mr. Heard, that is.
(don't make me totally blow your cover, Mr. Heard)


You see that lightning last night?!
Quoting 51. muddertracker:



Love Lago. Great place. LIving off that 15% chance of precip! We need it.


WU's LV's forecast just put us back into 101o heatwave, not counting index!
Quoting 55. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



relax taz

I think it just that the dryness in the picture
has a sense of sadness to it

maybe you will change it up after cali gets the rains again


yep thats i have plan on changing it and not be for then once CA get some good weather and storms i take some new photos with my new samsung note 5 and then i will uplode them on too here
Quoting 59. rxse7en:



You see that lightning last night?!

hey yeah- I modified my previous comment, you musta missed it- but YEAH that was some brilliant BRIGHT lightning last night, so WHITE like huge camera flashes! So WHITE, backlighting all the the trees.
Quoting 26. redwagon:

From the last blog:

#320, Mahfl:
The Gulf Stream always helps tropical cyclones, it's warm water, not winds, I think your confused.

I was asking if Erika could cross the Gulf Stream and make it back in one piece.. i.e. head back West towards the GOM.

At the time - any other Texans/LA getting this? - the local actual had been ~98 yesterday and today, down to forecast 94 and low 90s for the next ten days with a little chance pops but now suddenly it's 94/73, 97/75, 98/74, 100/74, 100/75, 99/74, 99/74, 99/74 and 0< chance pops, a terrible disappointment updated at 11aCentral.

This has me worried that they see Erika crossing back over FL into the GOM, her windfield on Sunday big enough to give TX hot, high winds like TS Lee did in '11, bellowing up unprecedented wildfires in Centex and elsewhere. Did anybody else's forecast from TX to MS suddenly rocket up back into the 100s?



Went from low 90s to mid-upper 90s here in Round Rock, Tx
Quoting 14. weatherbda:



That's about as bad as the model guidance with Erika!

Kilo also looked like it would never get its parts together.

Another interesting change in the latest prog for Jimena: there's now a possibility that it will turn left and hit Hawaii from the northeast, they're saying as a tropical storm. Approach from that direction would be unprecedented. Given the ridiculously warm SSTs this year in that patch of the ocean, I'm not so sure it wouldn't be able to regain hurricane status. Regardless of the wind, the amount of moisture that's been concentrated in Jimena over its long life would, if it gets to Hawaii, produce humongous rainfall.
Quoting 58. BayFog:

It's the anomalously warm water in the Northeastern Pacific, unrelated to El Nino.


Thanks, I was hoping somebody caught what they were talking about!
Quoting 40. Tazmanian:




you no what deal with it you guys have no right too tell me what avatar i can or can not uesd the olny ones that can do that are mods or Admins i will changed it but when i am ready too do so and not when you guys tell me too
OK, no problem. If you're not going to use the rafting avatar, could I have it? I've been searching for a really good one to use myself.
Quoting 64. Patrap:



I have to admit, that is an interesting (re?)development. Let's see if it can be sustained.
Quoting 39. muddertracker:

Hurricane peak time and we have articles on sea ice.

It's also the peak of the melt season.

Arctic Sea Ice Prepping For New Record Lows in 2016-2017?

It’s been a pretty rough Summer for Arctic sea ice. Rougher than one would expect when considering how rapidly Greenland is melting and given that the Gulf Stream appears to be slowing down.

Link
Quoting 64. Patrap:




Is that a low level spin I'm seeing just off the coast?
From the previous blog....

Quoting 314. weathermanwannabe:



If you believe the CIMSS chart below, that TUTT is just above ex-Erica (in close proximity) and helping the convective cycle (the dry sinking air from above mixing down on the periphery and helping with the baroclinic convection at the surface). Now we have to see if the TUTT follows her down and how much distance between them over the next 24. If ex-Erica is too close, it could choke off potential development, but at the right distance, it could help ventilate the system and allow some upper level outflow to develop as it drifts down. Gonna be a close call from what I can see on the WV loop:






Quoting 318. Patrap:

psssssst'

from the 8am TWD by the NHC

Atlantic Ocean

W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL
DRIFT SE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SAT AS A WEAK TROUGH SINKS
SLOWLY SE INTO THE W ATLC OFF NE FLORIDA THEN SETTLES ACROSS THE
NW BAHAMAS TO THE NE BY SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE





Interesting observations from both, of course.....I believe Patrap's posting has NHC alluding to a stalled trough just the other side of the gulfstream.

Whatever, right now the LLCoc has been exposed & "swept clean"

Quoting 69. Llamaluvr:

OK, no problem. If you're not going to use the rafting avatar, could I have it? I've been searching for a really good one to use myself.



no you cant have it that woluld be called copyright
Quoting 26. redwagon:

From the last blog:

#320, Mahfl:
The Gulf Stream always helps tropical cyclones, it's warm water, not winds, I think your confused.

I was asking if Erika could cross the Gulf Stream and make it back in one piece.. i.e. head back West towards the GOM.

At the time - any other Texans/LA getting this? - the local actual had been ~98 yesterday and today, down to forecast 94 and low 90s for the next ten days with a little chance pops but now suddenly it's 94/73, 97/75, 98/74, 100/74, 100/75, 99/74, 99/74, 99/74 and 0< chance pops, a terrible disappointment updated at 11aCentral.

This has me worried that they see Erika crossing back over FL into the GOM, her windfield on Sunday big enough to give TX hot, high winds like TS Lee did in '11, bellowing up unprecedented wildfires in Centex and elsewhere. Did anybody else's forecast from TX to MS suddenly rocket up back into the 100s?
I think what's happening is the models now want to build the high back into to Texas and the western Gulf. This will give central Texas some downslope heating and cut you off from any source of deep moisture. Thus, temperatures go back up with less chance for rain. Ex-Erica has (surprise) not been handled well by the models. Yesterday, there some general agreement about the low combining with the ULL from the Gulf and then drifting back west into the Gulf. Now, the GFS and ECMWF takes the low SE toward the northern Bahamas, with the GFS having the low in the northern Bahamas before going OTS. The ECMWF never has the low get to the Bahamas, keeping it east of there, and then having it go OTS. Neither model deepens the low much more than what it already is. The CMC, predictably, has the low traveling north up the East Coast, going inland in North Carolina, coming out through Virginia, deepening as it continues north, and eventually flattening Nova Scotia. The CMC never even initializes the existing low properly, and it's one I have no faith in right now. No model wants to bring ex-Erika back into the Gulf, which makes sense if we get a high building into the Gulf. Ex-Erika is a very weak low now, but so are the highs surrounding it. The range of possibilities I see is everything from the low dissipating within the next 36 hours to ending up much further south and closer to Florida, although retrograding west is still has a slim chance.

Most of the convection with the low is strictly diurnal now. If the convection can at least hold out overnight, things might change toward the low becoming stronger. If not, dissipation seems the most likely. I don't have much faith in any particular solution. We just have to do what we've done with ex-Erika right from the start -watch and wait.
Quoting 58. BayFog:

It's the anomalously warm water in the Northeastern Pacific, unrelated to El Nino.



More related to the PDO, right?
Quoting 70. BayFog:


I have to admit, that is an interesting (re?)development. Let's see if it can be sustained.
wind shear to high
Quoting 72. 69Viking:



Is that a low level spin I'm seeing just off the coast?

The fact that there's a whirl left at all is amazing. The only thing I can think of is that the prolonged heat and humidity over the southeast, plus subsidence ahead of that trough allowed just enough energy to be trapped and utilized through sheer thermal effect. A heat low. Now it just happens to be moving back over water where it can tap the Gulf Stream.
Quoting 77. TimTheWxMan:




More related to the PDO, right?

I've heard that, but this warming anomaly seems way beyond just that.
every storm to much wind shear this year
Quoting 78. hurricanes2018:

wind shear to high



Which is why all the thunderstorms developing are getting blown east right after developing.
Quoting 72. 69Viking:



Is that a low level spin I'm seeing just off the coast?
Yes. There is a 1013 mb low right off the Georgia coast. It's been there since early this morning and is shown on the surface chart.

Joe Bastardi@BigJoeBastardi 1h1 hour ago State College, PA

Erika loop back. should drift ESE next 2 days, then stall
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/05L/flas h-vis-short.html %u2026
Quoting 79. BayFog:


The fact that there's a whirl left at all is amazing. The only thing I can think of is that the prolonged heat and humidity over the southeast, plus subsidence ahead of that trough allowed just enough energy to be trapped and utilized through sheer thermal effect. A heat low. Now it just happens to be moving back over water where it can tap the Gulf Stream.
Ex-Erica has vacillated between an ULL and surface low for the past five days. The surface low tends to dissipate at night and then reform with the convection of the day. It's not a heat low, but it has some of the characteristics of one.
The last days I've sometimes told you that Spain was under extreme weather alert, but I didn't tell you what came out of it. Well, f.e. this:


Hail as large as chicken eggs in Bajo Aragon, northern Spain on August 31.

Edit: 300 flamingos died from this hail nearby (youtube).

Hundreds of flamingos battered to death during giant hailstone storm
The Local, Spain, Published: 03 Sep 2015 10:05 GMT 02:00
(embedded another video).
Good to see someone is bullish on MDR development. Models don't seem too excited.
Quoting 57. aquak9:

Our forecast has been TERRIBLE for the past two weeks, anything past 60 hours out. I mean, really total fail. Like yesterday, they had 60% heavy rain- I saw 0.03".
Duval Co has seen better forecasting here on Doc's blog, than on the NOAA site. With the exception of the sarcastic and opinionated Mr. Heard, that is.

(don't make me totally blow your cover, Mr. Heard)

oh yeah Rx7vn- that WAS some kinda light show last night!!!
Who is Mr. Heard? Is this one of the "in" things that most of have no idea what you're talking about? Either just say who it is, if that's even important, or don't bring it up. A half-secret is no secret.
Another poster mentioned 2002 TS Edouard....just happened to catch this pic of "landfall" @ Ormond Beach on his trip WSW

LINK

mdr is sleeping and having big Fred just to the north is not helping.
This floater is still called Erik. So we would have the new and improved Erika.


Quoting 81. hurricanes2018:

every storm to much wind shear this year


#elnino
Quoting 27. JNFlori30A:

What is up with the staying power of these Pac Storms? did a container of Levitra go overboard earlier this year?




As I posted very plainly on April 1, the true cause of warming was a spill of 1.7L of a certain fast food vendor's coffee into the Equatorial Pacific. The only other incidents were a 1.4L spill in 1982 and a 1.55L spill in 1997.

Everything posted on other than April 1 is whitewash and the real truth only leaks out every year on that date.
Quoting 49. rxse7en:

JAX long-range radar Doesn't look like there's too much precip associated with Ex-Erika.
No, there isn't, and what precipitation there is displaced east of the low center off the Georgia coast. It would be difficult for the low to deepen into anything resembling a "comeback" until the low and precipitation start coming together.
Quoting 86. barbamz:



looks like they were in the core of that
good video like how it starts slow picks up
then slow wind down
shows the result well
Quoting 39. muddertracker:

Hurricane peak time and we have articles on sea ice.


Well if there was something of real interest in the tropics then I'm quite sure they would have made it a primary blog topic.
Updated CIMMS charts (11:00 am) for the Florida area/ex-Erika remnants. Basically the same as the earlier ones: Lots of current shear with the best chance later downstream closer to the Bahamas: ironic that "Erika" needed to make it the promised land of the Bahamas to ramp up (had she survived Haiti) and now the remnants need to try to get there (on the backside) for a better chance to re-generate or try to organize..............She/It is hell bent on going to the Bahamas but that wind shear is relentless at the moment at that higher latitude:



Quoting 71. ColoradoBob1:

Quoting 39. muddertracker:

Hurricane peak time and we have articles on sea ice.

It's also the peak of the melt season.

Arctic Sea Ice Prepping For New Record Lows in 2016-2017?

It’s been a pretty rough Summer for Arctic sea ice. Rougher than one would expect when considering how rapidly Greenland is melting and given that the Gulf Stream appears to be slowing down.

Link



Melt season peaks in late July but rates are fast until late August, then they slow. We're past peak melt rate now and near minimum extent for the year. I remember in late summer 1969, the Manhattan tanker transit experiment was blocked by 50 foot ridges of ice in McClure Strait and the ship got icebound and had to be freed by its icebreaker escort. Today McClure Strait is clear of ice, probably for the next few weeks.
Another beautiful summer day in Sooo Cal, after a low of 56 this am we are at 80 now.

Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA. SSSSD (SDGE)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Thu, 03 Sep 11:19 am PDT
Most Recent Observation: Thu, 03 Sep 11:10 am PDT
Explanation of Wx and Clouds columns.
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
03 Sep 11:10 am PDT 80 19 10 S 7G15 OK
Quoting 94. sar2401:

No, there isn't, and what precipitation there is displaced east of the low center off the Georgia coast. It would be difficult for the low to deepen into anything resembling a "comeback" until the low and precipitation start coming together.

Thanks, Sar. Any models picking up on this?
Ex Erika does appear to be heading SE. May be more interesting when it hits the Gulfstream waters.

Looking East; very nice looking wave and not much Sal in the way at the moment...............Have to keep a close eye on this one in about 5 days as it gets close to the Antilles:



end of run shows a big low setting up nw grt lakes
Fred just doesn't wanna die...keeps spouting off convection.



And he's in a lot of dry air right now.

I think I will give thread the special rule 'It will not die'
"Figure 4. Sea ice concentration for September 1, 2015" in the blog post is a real mind blower.

Look at the size of the NE Passage! Throughout the history of ocean trade, that route has been closed by ice all year 'round. Until this century, that is. Now, it is wide open to shipping every year in late summer.
Quoting 103. KEEPEROFTHEGATE

It can't come soon enough!
Quoting 39. muddertracker:

Hurricane peak time and we have articles on sea ice.
It's the peak of Arctic sea ice melt, and we have people complaining that only 16 of the past 17 blog entries--including the current one--have discussed tropical cyclones.

SMH...
Quoting 105. AdamReith:

"Figure 4. Sea ice concentration for September 1, 2015" in the blog post is a real mind blower.

Look at the size of the NE Passage! Throughout the history of ocean trade, that route has been closed by ice all year 'round. Until this century, that is. Now, it is wide open to shipping every year in late summer.


There is some ice left there, but it looks more like modern art than an icepack



I watched the whole melting season on MODIS and it is very interesting to see the dynamics and the competing factors on a daily basis. I think my next book that I will buy should be about the Arctic climate system.
live cam barrows Alaska

nice mild foggy day

as air cools lots of open water to generate lots of precip

Quoting 86. barbamz:

The last days I've sometimes told you that Spain was under extreme weather alert, but I didn't tell you what came out of it. Well, f.e. this:


Hail as large as chicken eggs in Bajo Aragon, northern Spain on August 31.

Edit: 300 flamingos died from this hail nearby (youtube).

Hundreds of flamingos battered to death during giant hailstone storm
The Local, Spain, Published: 03 Sep 2015 10:05 GMT 02:00
(embedded another video).
Wow! That is some big hail, no wonder the flamingos were battered to death. Sad. Must have been a lot of other damage as well -- cars don't stand up very well to that kind of hail, nor a lot of other things including houses. Does that kind of hail happen in Northern Spain very often?
Formerly Erika moisture pluming up over BrunCo, looks to be raining very hard...can hear the thunder from up here.
Quoting 103. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

end of run shows a big low setting up nw grt lakes



Possibly Ignacio fueling the low, I remember the GFS showing something like that ~180 hrs out by Alaska. Think I posted it in one of the previous entries.
114. vis0
NOT VIEWABLE TILL 19:10UTC aka 0310EDT
CREDIT:: NOAA (combo of SPoRT products)
D&T:: 20150903;1215UTC till 20150903;1730UTC
POI:: Observing home grown('s')...&...wayward yabada

http://youtu.be/FJc7siQcZow(1116x818, 600x440below)

current conditions 3 pm airport

Temperature:

84.4°F

Dewpoint:

71.2°F

Humidity:

64%

Wind:

SSE 9 mph

Humidex:

101
Erika is back on the floaters page?

Is this a glitch or a fluke?
Quoting 116. FunnelVortex:

Erika is back on the floaters page? ???


Have her labeled as "05L" on the NHC site index page
Quoting 109. LargoFl:




[Apologies to Tijuana]

Oh, great and powerful CMC, please be right for once.
Quoting 116. FunnelVortex:

Erika is back on the floaters page?

Is this a glitch or a fluke?

possible regeneration may occur so lets watch for a while see if it does anything give it 24hrs
Fred is acting a lot like Fred in 2009.
Quoting 117. rxse7en:


Have her labeled as "05L" on the NHC site index page


It is not showing up on the NHC page so that is why I was wondering if it was a fluke or something.
Quoting 119. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

possible regeneration may occur so lets watch for a while see if it does anything give it 24hrs



But if it regenerates at this point would it still be called "Erika?"
some late afternoon pop up thunderstorms good need some rain to make it feel even more humid

current heat spell to last until next wed cooling on Thursday next week

Quoting 122. FunnelVortex:



But if it regenerates at this point would it still be called "Erika?"
well I guess thats the labels there using NHC even has it up as 05L
125. bwi
Quoting 108. ChrisHamburg:



There is some ice left there, but it looks more like modern art than an icepack



I watched the whole melting season on MODIS and it is very interesting to see the dynamics and the competing factors on a daily basis. I think my next book that I will buy should be about the Arctic climate system.


That's the NW passage -- the NE passage along the north coast of Russia has been wide open for weeks. And the southern routes of the NW passage have also been fully ice free for a while.

Here's a blog from a family that just sailed through the NW passage (southern route): http://saltykisses.net/hanging-in-the-arctic-wait ing-on-weather/
Quoting 111. CaneFreeCR:

Wow! That is some big hail, no wonder the flamingos were battered to death. Sad. Must have been a lot of other damage as well -- cars don't stand up very well to that kind of hail, nor a lot of other things including houses. Does that kind of hail happen in Northern Spain very often?

I don't have any numbers from Spain but hailstorms of this size happen elsewhere in Europe, f.e. 2013 in Germany at Reutlingen/Swabia: one of the costliest weather events in Germany the last years:

Storm Front Andreas - A 15-Minute Hailstorm With Catastrophic Consequences

Severe hail damage in 2013
Substantially damaged buildings, broken panes of glass and dented cars were the result of severe hailstorms in Germany in summer 2013.

Here a youtube video of this event and the aftermath. Watch the size of the hail at 2:40; even bigger than the recent hail in Spain.

Another video of the amazing size of that hail.
Quoting 124. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

well I guess thats the labels there using NHC even has it up as 05L

Guess we wait to see at 5pm.
If you look at the vis-loops on ex-Erika posted below, a lower level swirl (perhaps trying to form an LLC) is clearly shooting down to the SE towards the Bahamas but all the t-storm tops are getting blown off to the East. Have to see whether that swirl will survive the trek down towards the Bahamas and then it's a matter of trying to put some meat on the bones if the sheer cooperates and it can keep convection closer to the center in a few days:





We saw a very sad show on TV recently about an island in Alaska that may have to be abandoned because the ice, which usually acts as a barrier to storms, has receded so much the island is at risk of being inundated. There are many other inhabited islands facing the same fate. Very sad to see people whose family have lived in a place for thousands of years being forced to move.
The blog is ice everywhere.No more hot tropics to comment.Maybe this is about to change with the tw in Africa.
Quoting 119. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

possible regeneration may occur so lets watch for a while see if it does anything give it 24hrs

Regeneration for what? Waste of time?
What has been striking about these waves is that they show a tremendous spin while still over Africa. I believe we are lucky that is has been an el Nino year, because this could have been an extremely active season.

Quoting 132. Grothar:

What has been striking about these waves is that they show a tremendous spin while still over Africa. I believe we are lucky that is has been an el Nino year, because this could have been an extremely active season.




We will see if the pattern continues into next season and if the el ninio recedes. Too early to tell, but should be something to keep an eye on.
Torrential monsoon thunderstorms converge over Phoenix in striking timelapse
By Angela Fritz September 3 at 11:18 AM

Good night with this. Have a nice weather evening!
For those who are interested in the state of the ice in the Arctic, here is another picture of the ice on the east side of Axel Heiberg Island in the north of the Canadian Archipelago from 01.09.2015 which can be seen best in EOSDIS to show how the ice looks like in its fragmented glory. Note this is a region that has never melted out in the modern age. In a lot of places the ice looks very fragile and vulnerable.



Here a link to todays EOSDIS map, where you can see the low pressure system that will impact the ice in the Laptev Sea. I'm still amazed about this EOSDIS site, even when the clouds block the view for much of the place, there is always something interesting to watch.
Agree with Grothar below; with the current ridging pattern that we saw earlier (not counting Fred), the CV waves had the opportunity to send two tropical storms (Danny and Erika) into-towards the Leeward Islands (long-track storms). Thankfully, shear and some dry air issues kept them in check. Given nice rainfall in the Sahel this year producing some robust waves the Caribbean continues the current lucky streak of no major hurricanes barreling into the Lesser Antilles in recent years. Have to see what happens with the next wave exiting Africa downstream but had this been a neutral or La Nina year (with less shear), the outcome might have been different, and worse, as to Danny and Erika.........Even then, we lost lives in the Caribbean from Erika.
Quoting 132. Grothar:

What has been striking about these waves is that they show a tremendous spin while still over Africa. I believe we are lucky that is has been an el Nino year, because this could have been an extremely active season.

Yes, I concurr. Amazing show in Africa this year!
As I wrote earlier this morning, remnants of Erika should be meandering for a few days off the coast of FL and GA. Steering currents appear to be weak, but there should be some drifting to the SE. Not much help having it much more at this time.
Here is the link to the Eumetsat Africa time loop; impressive look to these recent waves:

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/afrika_animasjon.html

Fred giving his dying breath

Quoting 128. weathermanwannabe:

If you look at the vis-loops on ex-Erika posted below, a lower level swirl (perhaps trying to form an LLC) is clearly shooting down to the SE towards the Bahamas but all the t-storm tops are getting blown off to the East. Have to see whether that swirl will survive the trek down towards the Bahamas and then it's a matter of trying to put some meat on the bones if the sheer cooperates and it can keep convection closer to the center in a few days:








amazing how she's survived all this time. cv seeds, huh patrap...
Quoting 141. serialteg:



amazing how she's survived all this time. cv seeds, huh patrap...


I am amazed; remember the "over-land" radar loops with what looked to be an "eye" over Southern GA yesterday (and the rain bands pounding Jax).........................This little seed will not quit..............
Quoting 120. weathergirl2001:

Fred is acting a lot like Fred in 2009.




Except that Fred was much further south and didn't persist as a TS like this Fred is doing
Quoting 131. prcane4you:

Regeneration for what? Waste of time?

its whatever ya want to call it I guess
iam not expecting anything
more than a swirl with thunderstorms displace
to the se of it but hey who knows really

just getting a little interest because of floaters on it
Quoting 131. prcane4you:

Regeneration for what? Waste of time?
if on west side of pr watch for the Lightning nice little shower bubbling up
Quoting 100. rxse7en:


Thanks, Sar. Any models picking up on this?
Yes, the GFS and ECMWF move the weak low toward the northern Bahmas, with the GFS having it actually get to the northern Bahamas. Both models have it hang around for a couple of days and then send it out to sea. Given that the model performance for Erika/ex-Erika has been terrible, and some of the flip-flopping over the last two days, I expect it will change again.
Quoting 142. weathermanwannabe:



I am amazed; remember the "over-land" radar loops with what looked to be an "eye" over Southern GA yesterday (and the rain bands pounding Jax).........................This little seed will not quit..............
The low is going to have an impossible time unless it's able to get some convection going over it. It's now fully exposed and the presentation has deteriorated markedly since this morning. The only hope otherwise is that the trough approaching from the west might increase the available energy enough for the low get something going. Of course, it has been killed off about six times, so I wouldn't put anything past it now.
Quoting 136. weathermanwannabe:

Agree with Grothar below; with the current ridging pattern that we saw earlier (not counting Fred), the CV waves had the opportunity to send two tropical storms (Danny and Erika) into-towards the Leeward Islands (long-track storms). Thankfully, shear and some dry air issues kept them in check. Given nice rainfall in the Sahel this year producing some robust waves the Caribbean continues the current lucky streak of no major hurricanes barreling into the Lesser Antilles in recent years. Have to see what happens with the next wave exiting Africa downstream but had this been a neutral or La Nina year (with less shear), the outcome might have been different, and worse, as to Danny and Erika.........Even then, we lost lives in the Caribbean from Erika.
Nevertheless, even weak TS can be killers as Erika, and caused terrible damages. Don't forget last week tragedy in Dominica, they still finding bodies, while the waters subsided the number is close to 30, and there are still people missing...Damages are over the hundred of millions......
Quoting 148. sar2401:

The low is going to have an impossible time unless it's able to get some convection going over it. It's now fully exposed and the presentation has deteriorated markedly since this morning. The only hope otherwise is that the trough approaching from the west might increase the available energy enough for the low get something going. Of course, it has been killed off about six times, so I wouldn't put anything past it now.


The pending LLC looked really good just coming off the coast but it is deteriorating rapidly as it moves down..........You are correct; continued convection after/if it makes it to the Bahamas is the only possible hope at this point............But as you noted, we have to wait until it's "really" gone........................ :)
So the CMC is back to playing "this game"...

INIT 03/2100Z 22.0N 35.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 22.4N 36.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 22.7N 38.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/0600Z 23.0N 40.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/1800Z 23.5N 42.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/1800Z 26.0N 43.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/1800Z 29.0N 40.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/1800Z 31.0N 38.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION

Well this is a first
Interestingly, the CMC also wants to put a tropical system into Southern California.

Ah, good old CMC

154. FOREX
Quoting 152. JrWeathermanFL:

INIT 03/2100Z 22.0N 35.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 22.4N 36.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 22.7N 38.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/0600Z 23.0N 40.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/1800Z 23.5N 42.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/1800Z 26.0N 43.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/1800Z 29.0N 40.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/1800Z 31.0N 38.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION

Well this is a first
Is this for Fred?
lake breeze generated thunder storms with daytime heat collisions
lots of daytime heat
heat index is 102 still

Quoting 153. FunnelVortex:

Interestingly, the CMC also wants to put a tropical system into Southern California.

Ah, good old CMC




I have no problem with this coming true. None.
Quoting 156. TimSoCal:



I have no problem with this coming true. None.
maybe a little rain dance would help the cmc out
Quoting 120. weathergirl2001:

Fred is acting a lot like Fred in 2009.


Poor Fred Flintstone. He could never match the fury of his wife!
Quoting 98. georgevandenberghe:



Melt season peaks in late July but rates are fast until late August, then they slow. We're past peak melt rate now and near minimum extent for the year. I remember in late summer 1969, the Manhattan tanker transit experiment was blocked by 50 foot ridges of ice in McClure Strait and the ship got icebound and had to be freed by its icebreaker escort. Today McClure Strait is clear of ice, probably for the next few weeks.


That would be peak melt season, because it ain't freezing yet.
current rad shot my local region

Very last call as I'm not sure whether the following spectacular pictures were already posted in here:



More Spectacular Images from the MUOS-4 Launch
by Nancy Atkinson on September 2, 2015

I'm in bed for good now. Busy day ahead tomorrow.
of course erika will regenerate. she will have the last laugh.
Quoting 125. bwi:



That's the NW passage -- the NE passage along the north coast of Russia has been wide open for weeks. And the southern routes of the NW passage have also been fully ice free for a while.

Here's a blog from a family that just sailed through the NW passage (southern route): http://saltykisses.net/hanging-in-the-arctic-wait ing-on-weather/


Hope they make it. This is risky even with the reduced ice of recent years. Clear on the satellite maps we see does not always mean clear water, it means there is not a lot of ice. And if there is pack ice nearby wind shifts can move it en-masse quickly and a narrow strip of clear water next to the coast becomes a death trap for the boat.

My fear is that now that the late summer Arctic is not coast to coast ice through the passages, people (and tramp steamers) are going to start navigating it and have accidents. An accident with a ship carrying hazardous cargo or a lot of fuel would be a disaster for the region.
Heading home and everyone have a safe weather evening. Even though we are going into the peak period, the current "look" out there in the Atlantic basin is a little weird looking (with the exception of the wave exiting Africa). Lots of shear contributing TUTT cells out there (particularly in the Central-Caribbean and Northern Gulf) but some low shear pockets out there as well in the mid-Atlantic . Have to see what happens in the short-term on the Florida low/trof and later in the period with the wave.



Quoting 159. ColoradoBob1:



That would be peak melt season, because it ain't freezing yet.


Melt rates are fastest in mid to late summer. Extent is lowest in mid to late September, you're right and I had
a semantic miss.
Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) Changes Effective October 13, 2015

Excerpt:

2. Increasing the horizontal resolution from T254 (about 55km) to
TL574 (about 33km) for the first 192 hours (8 days) of model
integration, and from T190 (about 70km)to TL382 (about 55km)
between 192 hours and 384 hours of model integration.

3. Increasing vertical resolution from 42 levels to 64 levels for
0-384 hours (0-16 days) forecasts.


Erikas remnants can't a break. If there's a spin still by tomorrow morning I'd be impressed. The shear is so strong right now.
86. barbamz

The most expensive insurance pay out in North America is Hail Damage. Year after year after year.

That is why I have long considered it a perfect measure of climate change. If the storms are getting stronger, the hail is getting larger. Why ? Because a softball hail stone is not the same thing as pea sized one. To make a softball you have to go to the top of the troposphere. To make pea sized stone , you're 3 miles below that.

It's like the discussion of forest fires, ......... A Bic lighter, and a brick kiln are both fire . One burns pine needles, one fuses clay. The fires out West are making bricks. Not burning pine needles.
Quoting 166. georgevandenberghe:



Melt rates are fastest in mid to late summer. Extent is lowest in mid to late September, you're right and I had
a semantic miss.


around just before or just after sept 15th
extent begins its increase
need about -10 c air temps
for ice to form in ocean surface water
sea water cools from the top down
ice acts as an insulator of sst heat
so depending how warm the water is
and how cold the temps get
determines the ice we get
I am sure evaporated cooling plays a significant role as well
as the cooling air is force over the abnormal
open warmer waters lots of things to consider
and many many more feedbacks i am sure
Quoting 158. weatherbro:



Poor Fred Flintstone. He could never match the fury of his wife!
Hi Weatherbro! Good to see you back!
Will be interesting to see what the current T.Wave exiting Africa can make of the conditions in the MDR
Vertical instability is on the rise , in both the MDR & the Caribbean, from the low points through the season so far.

Carib


tropical Atlantic
remember back in ericas past there was a mid level area displaced from the low level. it was a chronic problem why she didnt develop further. take a peek at one of the last vis. shots of the day. leftover erica has her little mid level swirl and its displaced from the low levels.
SST Constructed Analogue August update. Colder anomalies that the previous.


looks like the rain only gets as far as west end of city here seems high pressure will push it all back west more hot humid conditions too come

178. JLPR2
Quoting 176. Gearsts:




GFS seems more interested this afternoon on our yellow X, also there's Fred.
ex e swirl off ne fla area

Trade winds are dead over the MDR.
181. JLPR2
Ha! Hurricane Fred. XD
Quoting 181. JLPR2:

Ha! Hurricane Fred. XD

Seems like Fred will be staying with us longer than previously thought.The NHC keeps pulling the plug at the end of the forecast period but Fred has been defiant.
184. Wrass
Th
Quoting 180. Gearsts:

Trade winds are dead over the MDR.

wind shear still to high


watching???
Quoting 179. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

ex e swirl off ne fla area


Erika is karen in disguise...Good evening Keep.
188. Wrass
Woops Sw fl coast no tower anvils for 10 years now. Haven't seen one. Only Mushrooms. What happened! Any ideas.
Quoting 179. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

ex e swirl off ne fla area




Are we seeing 30kt shear in this image?
If Wunderground is correct we have 91L but its winds are pretty low. Only 15mph.
AL, 91, 2015090318, , BEST, 0, 106N, 153W, 15, 1010, DB
AL, 91, 2015090318, , BEST, 0, 106N, 153W, 15

AL, 91, 2015090318, , BEST, 0, 106N, 153W, 15, 1010, DB we have invest 91L NOW


INVEST 91L going out to sea!!
Invest 91L should get a boost from a strong convectively-coupled kelvin wave pushing eastward across the Atlantic. Upper-level winds should become very conducive for development once the wave emerges offshore, and dry air should not be an issue until day 5 or so. I'd put development odds at 80%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fred, located several hundred miles west-northwest of the
Cape Verde Islands.

A tropical wave located just offshore of the west coast of Africa is
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. This system has
the potential for some gradual development as it moves westward at
15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent
We now have 91L.


Everybody say hello to Grace. Grace will be our house guest for few days or mabey even longer as it all depends on her health. Please make her feel welcome.


Grace is looking good as she prepares to take a dip into the Atlantic. Looks like Henri is trailing right behind her.
The early models will have 91L on an almost straight due west for a number of days.


202. FOREX
Quoting 201. Grothar:

The early models will have 91L on an almost straight due west for a number of days.



That means some of us will see a SW movement.
Kilo could be the longest duration of a storm 15 days and doesn't seem to be disappearing anytime soon
Quoting 194. hurricanes2018:



INVEST 91L going out to sea!!
How do you know?
Quoting 202. FOREX:

That means some of us will see a SW movement.


I should remain a low rider for a number of days. Also, look to the Gulf this weak. When that much troughiness stays around this time of year, something could develop. Hey, FOR, it looks like our little Blobus Ohmyus is on its way. I haven't been concerned about any system this year except this on and possible one behind it.
206. SLU
This one could be very interesting to track.

Hey guys nice to finally see 91L up and going
91L could make the carribean but the question is will it be strong and go north or stay a tropical storm and go more west into the gulf
Quoting 194. hurricanes2018:



INVEST 91L going out to sea!!


I don't think so

But it too early to tell but what I will say it will move due W for the next few days
Quoting 208. James1981cane:

91L could make the carribean but the question is will it be strong and go north or stay a tropical storm and go more west into the gulf



Yep if it does make it into the Caribbean I see two options

Option 1 it moves WNW into the Greater Antilles and get mashed like Erika or

Option 2 it stay W for most of the trip across the Caribbean turning WNW and NW and into the GOM
Quoting 210. wunderkidcayman:



Yep if it does make it into the Caribbean I see two options

Option 1 it moves WNW into the Greater Antilles and get mashed like Erika or

Option 2 it stay W for most of the trip across the Caribbean turning WNW and NW and into the GOM

Yes that's exactly what I meant it needs to stay more west If it wants to survive
Quoting 206. SLU:

This one could be very interesting to track.


If the Bams is correct it will enter the Caribbean but that would depend on how strong and how fast it develops. If it strength quickly a turn towards the north like Fred will be the most probably scenario.
Quoting 210. wunderkidcayman:



Yep if it does make it into the Caribbean I see two options

Option 1 it moves WNW into the Greater Antilles and get mashed like Erika or

Option 2 it stay W for most of the trip across the Caribbean turning WNW and NW and into the GOM
Any chance Honduras and the rest of CA receive tropical activity this year? 13/18 departments are having their worst drought in a very long time. We need rain asap.
Interesting to see we have 91L now. Will be an interesting one to track, shouldn't have much issue in the near-future. If it can get going sooner rather than later, I wouldn't be surprised if we see it intensify into a hurricane. Conditions appear to be very conducive with SSTs of ~28C, very low shear (5-10kts at most) and not much dry air - the sort of conditions we see rapid intensification occur at. Hopefully it'll give some needed rain for the islands of the Caribbean and not give too much trouble for Dominica who are still recovering from Erika.
205. Grothar 11:59 PM GMT on September 03, 2015

I should remain a low rider for a number of days.

Gro- thanks, now I got that song by War stuck in my head. They were a GREAT band...
Quoting 212. allancalderini:

If the Bams is correct it will enter the Caribbean but that would depend on how strong and how fast it develops. If it strength quickly a turn towards the north like Fred will be the most probably scenario.

Yes you are correct I think it will be a weaker system in my opinion
The next model run will be interesting
to put in perspective last years 7th storm didn't come till october
Quoting 215. aquak9:

205. Grothar 11:59 PM GMT on September 03, 2015

I should remain a low rider for a number of days.

Gro- thanks, now I got that song by War stuck in my head. They were a GREAT band...


Sorry, aqua. We will, we will rock you!!!!!
With the way things have been in the Atlantic this year seems 91L will most likely have the same fate as Danny and Erika.There is just no getting around the TUTT for storms.It's been like Hades hell hound guarding the caribbean and to some extent the U.S.
JFV alert on dr m blog i can smell it
Quoting 201. Grothar:

The early models will have 91L on an almost straight due west for a number of days.





Solid ridging across the Atlantic
The letter G next? ;)
Quoting 201. Grothar:

The early models will have 91L on an almost straight due west for a number of days.




So...Will I have class on Tuesday?
;o)
Quoting 223. Gearsts:

The letter G next?
Yep this year done well so far. My new predictions are 11,5,3.
Quoting 224. RobDaHood:


So...Will I have class on Tuesday?
;o)



nop its a snow day
Quoting 226. Tazmanian:




nop its a snow day

ROFL
Hey Taz.
Quoting 227. RobDaHood:


ROFL
Hey Taz.



hello
how is the wind shear on invest 91L
Hi Everybody


Will anything come of this?
...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER WESTERN AFRICA WIT AXIS EXTENDING FROM
16N14W TO 08N14W...MOVING W AROUND 10 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES
WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 10W-18W AND IS LARGELY LOW-
AMPLITUDE. ABUNDANT MOISTURE SURROUNDS THIS WAVE AND A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS TRYING TO DEVELOP. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 07N-15N BETWEEN 14W-20W.
Quoting 231. Chicklit:

Hi Everybody


Will anything come of this?
...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER WESTERN AFRICA WIT AXIS EXTENDING FROM
16N14W TO 08N14W...MOVING W AROUND 10 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES
WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 10W-18W AND IS LARGELY LOW-
AMPLITUDE. ABUNDANT MOISTURE SURROUNDS THIS WAVE AND A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS TRYING TO DEVELOP. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 07N-15N BETWEEN 14W-20W.





hello why not uesd this tell you a lot more on whats happening


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fred, located several hundred miles west-northwest of the
Cape Verde Islands.

A tropical wave located just offshore of the west coast of Africa is
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. This system has
the potential for some gradual development as it moves westward at
15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percen


and we have 91L so i would say yes there a ch
Quoting 230. hurricanes2018:

how is the wind shear on invest 91L


Atlantic Deep Layer Wind Shear
Thanks Taz, I didn't see it was already designated 91L

My sweet dog had to be put down Sept. 1st so I am temporarily running on empty :-(
I don't want to update my picture, though.
That was from 2006 when I joined WU. Anyway, we were good while it lasted!
Lowrider by War (in honor of 91L):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RUJGml0cKYo
KEEP
CALM
and
CARRY ON
WATCHING THE ATL

Okay, it works better with the colour background and the little crown thingie ....

:o)

Evening all, just stopping in to say the weather was schitzo today .... the north side of New Providence was sunny, 90x, light breezes; the south side of the island was 80x, overcast and rainy.....
None of this would have mattered much if the power had been on between 2 and 6 p.m. ...

At least it's supposed to drop to 77 tonight ....
AL, 91, 2015090318, , BEST, 0, 106N, 153W, 15, 1010, DB
AL, 91, 2015090400, , BEST, 0, 107N, 169W, 20, 1010, DB
238. txjac
Quoting 234. Chicklit:

Thanks Taz, I didn't see it was already designated 91L

My sweet dog had to be put down Sept. 1st so I am temporarily running on empty :-(
I don't want to update my picture, though.




I am very sorry, I know the pain, as many of us do on this blog
You can see how happy he was with you ...remember the good times.
Love my animals
Quoting 234. Chicklit:

Thanks Taz, I didn't see it was already designated 91L

My sweet dog had to be put down Sept. 1st so I am temporarily running on empty :-(
I don't want to update my picture, though.
That was from 2006 when I joined WU. Anyway, we were good while it lasted!



you are most welcome
Quoting 234. Chicklit:

Thanks Taz, I didn't see it was already designated 91L

My sweet dog had to be put down Sept. 1st so I am temporarily running on empty :-(
I don't want to update my picture, though.
That was from 2006 when I joined WU. Anyway, we were good while it lasted!


Sorry to hear that.
Mine is getting to be a very old man. Don't even like to think about that.
Keep your pic. It's a good way to honor a dear friend.
241. SLU
Quoting 234. Chicklit:

Thanks Taz, I didn't see it was already designated 91L

My sweet dog had to be put down Sept. 1st so I am temporarily running on empty :-(
I don't want to update my picture, though.
That was from 2006 when I joined WU. Anyway, we were good while it lasted!



Sad to hear Chicklit, my condolences, I know your pets become like family , I have 2 cats and love them to pieces, hang in there and remember the fun times with your dog.
243. SLU
Quoting 222. Drakoen:



Solid ridging across the Atlantic


I didn't want to get technical. :)
Quoting 243. SLU:




Impressive LLC on Fred, that is very well defined.
Invest 91 track looks to be largely westward. Should the windwards/leewards be concerned..
248. SLU
I see no reason why 91L can't become a hurricane in the short term

SHEAR (KT) 14 14 12 12 11 4 4 5 5 8 9 14 13

SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.6 28.1 27.7 27.6 27.8 27.9 27.7

700-500 MB RH 64 66 67 69 70 73 73 69 65 62 59 54 53
249. JLPR2
GFS showed 91L as a decent TS until it was slammed by shear east of the Antilles.

Quoting 214. Envoirment:

Interesting to see we have 91L now. Will be an interesting one to track, shouldn't have much issue in the near-future. If it can get going sooner rather than later, I wouldn't be surprised if we see it intensify into a hurricane. Conditions appear to be very conducive with SSTs of ~28C, very low shear (5-10kts at most) and not much dry air - the sort of conditions we see rapid intensification occur at. Hopefully it'll give some needed rain for the islands of the Caribbean and not give too much trouble for Dominica who are still recovering from Erika.


91l headed our direction would be a nightmare. A few Thousand already homeless or lost all possessions. To put another storm or anything resembling a storm in the midst of all the chaos here in dominica would probably render the island inhabitable.
Quoting 203. Austin72893:

Kilo could be the longest duration of a storm 15 days and doesn't seem to be disappearing anytime soon

Ignacio and JImena aren't doing too badly either.
91L already has some good structure. Have to see how it takes when it fully enters the Atlantic, but this is a robust wave.
Quoting 175. Drakoen:

SST Constructed Analogue August update. Colder anomalies that the previous.




Okay, is this map showing the development of a large cold low over the NE Pacific, dipping as far south as California?
Quoting 234. Chicklit:

Thanks Taz, I didn't see it was already designated 91L

My sweet dog had to be put down Sept. 1st so I am temporarily running on empty :-(
I don't want to update my picture, though.
That was from 2006 when I joined WU. Anyway, we were good while it lasted!

Oh, that's too bad. I fear the day that's coming for Radar Dog too. Dang...
Quoting 250. java162:



91l headed our direction would be a nightmare. A few Thousand already homeless or lost all possessions. To put another storm or anything resembling a storm in the midst of all the chaos here in dominica would probably render the island inhabitable.
Uninhabitable might be a little much, but I hope you don't see any more storms this year
Quoting 234. Chicklit:

Thanks Taz, I didn't see it was already designated 91L

My sweet dog had to be put down Sept. 1st so I am temporarily running on empty :-(
I don't want to update my picture, though.
That was from 2006 when I joined WU. Anyway, we were good while it lasted!


So very very sorry to hear that. Positive vibes, prayers and hugs. I just recently lost Marley (avatar) very devastating. I've always enjoyed you on the blog.
Quoting 212. allancalderini:

If the Bams is correct it will enter the Caribbean but that would depend on how strong and how fast it develops. If it strength quickly a turn towards the north like Fred will be the most probably scenario.
Remember the fine job the models did with Erika? Until 91L is a developed low, they are likely to do at least as fine a job with this system. The first thing it has to do is make it to 40w.
Looks like a decent chance of Tornadoes in the midwest from Friday thru Sunday.There is something for us to track afterall.
Quoting 204. Gearsts:

How do you know?
I believe he has an app that says that about once an hour for any storm. There's a reason he's on my list.
Hot off the presses, here's the latest ONI data from ERSSTv4 and OISSTv2. The latest value for JJA ( 1.22) was the 6th highest on record since 1870, (behind 1905, 1902, 1877, 1997, & 1987), however this dataset is likely a low outlier in this case, as these values have been running ~.2-.25C below what has been reported lately from the HADISST, OISSTv2, & Kaplan Extended SSTv2 datasets. The lack of direct satellite data input (especially to infill data sparse regions as is the case w/ HADISST) significantly lowers the value of ERSSTv4, especially wrt real-time ENSO monitoring. The tri-monthly Equatorial SOI (CPC) was tied with 1997 for the lowest value on record, and ironically, we were also tied with 1997 in the Darwin-Tahiti SOI (BOM) this past month for 5th lowest August SOI value since 1876, (-19.8) behind 1882, 1896, 1934, & 1982. The July-August Bi-monthly MEI Value ( 2.37 sigma) was the 2nd highest on record, & this officially gives the current El Nino the 3rd highest peak value (since 1950), only surpassed by the 1982-83 & 1997-98 Super El Ninos. Any further intensification of the ongoing El Nino from this point forward would likely result in a "Super" event.

ERSSTv4 ONI (1990-Present)



NOAA's OISSTv2 ONI (2000-Present)


Quoting 261. Gearsts:


What doe that mean?
Quoting 262. washingtonian115:

What doe that mean?
Big El nino
Quoting 206. SLU:

This one could be very interesting to track.




But... will it survive the wind shears ?
Quoting 252. Stoopid1:
91L already has some good structure. Have to see how it takes when it fully enters the Atlantic, but this is a robust wave.

I'm gonna start plussing all your posts for two reasons- my dau graduated from UNF, and you're local.

Peace, neighbor.
Quoting 249. JLPR2:

GFS showed 91L as a decent TS until it was slammed by shear east of the Antilles.




Danny and Erika's PART 2 :((( May just die east of us... leaving us dry again.
Quoting 247. Grothar:



Those blobs with white in them especially that big , you have to watch carefully!
Fred is still here..



And plenty of "Green Over Gambia" for 91L

Quoting 260. Webberweather53:

Hot off the presses, here's the latest ONI data from ERSSTv4 and OISSTv2. The latest value for JJA ( 1.22) was the 6th highest on record since 1870, (behind 1905, 1902, 1877, 1997, & 1987), however this dataset is likely a low outlier in this case, as these values have been running ~.2-.25C below what has been reported lately from the HADISST, OISSTv2, & Kaplan Extended SSTv2 datasets. The lack of direct satellite data input (especially to infill data sparse regions as is the case w/ HADISST) significantly lowers the value of ERSSTv4, especially wrt real-time ENSO monitoring. The tri-monthly Equatorial SOI (CPC) was tied with 1997 for the lowest value on record, and ironically, we were also tied with 1997 in the Darwin-Tahiti SOI (BOM) this past month for 5th lowest August SOI value since 1876, (-19.8) behind 1882, 1896, 1934, & 1982. The July-August Bi-monthly MEI Value ( 2.37 sigma) was the 2nd highest on record, & this officially gives the current El Nino the 3rd highest peak value (since 1950), only surpassed by the 1982-83 & 1997-98 Super El Ninos. Any further intensification of the ongoing El Nino from this point forward would likely result in a "Super" event.

I guess I'll throw in HADISST while I'm at it, this dataset updated unusually early this month, however the updates to this dataset lag by 1 month, thus ONI data is only available thru MJJ.
Hadley Centre Sea Ice & Sea Surface Temperature Version 1 (HADISST) Oceanic NINO Index (ONI) (1990-Present)

The latest ONI value ( 1.29) is a new record high for MJJ in HADISST, beating out 1987...


Quoting 267. BaltimoreBrian:

Today's abridged selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment. Visit my blog for today's complete selection in comment #1388.



What happened to early Mars' atmosphere? New study eliminates one theory



Many North American birds may lose part of range under climate change scenarios

Ice sheets may be more resilient than thought, say scientists

Key radar fails on $1 billion NASA environmental satellite

Warming Oceans Putting Marine Life 'In a Blender'

Brian your blog is all out of whack. Where is the current entry?
Quoting 266. CaribBoy:



Danny and Erika's PART 2 :((( May just die east of us... leaving us dry again.




you mean part 3
Quoting 265. aquak9:


I'm gonna start plussing all your posts for two reasons- my dau graduated from UNF, and you're local.

Peace, neighbor.


I'm in my senior year for computer science now. UNF has been amazing, no regrets at all. I live off campus just east of downtown.
Quoting 273. Stoopid1:


I'm in my senior year for computer science now. UNF has been amazing, no regrets at all. I live off campus just east of downtown.
Go treat yourself to Monroe's Barbeque on Beach Blvd, across from the KFC. It'll make you cry.
Quoting 274. aquak9:

Go treat yourself to Monroe's Barbeque on Beach Blvd, across from the KFC. It'll make you cry.


I'll have to do that, I drive by it all the time but never thought to stop and try it.. The nearest BBQ joint by me is Cotten's, slogan being "Cotten's is king". that was enough to scare me away.
Wolfberry my blog is coming up for me--check again and let me know please.
Quoting 275. Stoopid1:


I'll have to do that, I drive by it all the time but never thought to stop and try it.. The nearest BBQ joint by me is Cotten's, slogan being "Cotten's is king". that was enough to scare me away.
Just get the Rib and Wing combo. I swear, it's so good. So's the mac n cheese, and greens, and - wait -
(Great, now I'm hungry) - but they close earlier IN THE WINTER - there, I had to make that post weather-related somehow...
TXNT25 KNES 040002
TCSNTL

A. 05L (ERIKA)

B. 03/2315Z

C. 30.9N

D. 79.9W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. TOO WEAK

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY DUE TO A LACK OF ACTIVE,
DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN 1.25 DEGREES OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. THIS
WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL
Quoting 276. BaltimoreBrian:

Wolfberry my blog is coming up for me--check again and let me know please.


I think he figured seeing 2014 that something was wrong/


ERIKA Floater Page IS BACK UP
Quoting 276. BaltimoreBrian:

Wolfberry my blog is coming up for me--check again and let me know please.

When I clicked over there was nothing on your current blog. It is back to where it was so all is good, must have been a glitch that caught my computer off guard. Thanks Bro, really enjoy your blog.


wow invest 91L will go up fast at 2am 40% and 60% at 2am
It will be interesting to see how much latitude Ignacio can gain in the north-central Pacific. I suspect less than the NHC has forecasted, but it is rare for any troipcal system to travel north of 30N in the basin so this is neat to me.


An eye is re-appearing. Re-strengthening to a hurricane again looks very possible.
Typhoon Kilo... still spinning.

Quoting 281. Wolfberry:


When I clicked over there was nothing on your current blog. It is back to where it was so all is good, must have been a glitch that caught my computer off guard. Thanks Bro, really enjoy your blog.


You're welcome wolfberry :)
Kilo became a tropical depression on August 20th. It may make it beyond three weeks as a tropical cyclone, the ACE value could be pretty significant if it regains category three status.
So I've always joked that the only thing that could make Seattle better would be hurricane parties...

Seriously though, a tropical storm in AK or BC? Any thoughts, comments and knowledge would be welcome because I'm just going to assume I'm seeing things...



Quoting 288. Seattleite:

So I've always joked that the only thing that could make Seattle better would be hurricane parties...

Seriously though, a tropical storm in AK or BC? Any thoughts, comments and knowledge would be welcome because I'm just going to assume I'm seeing things...





CPHC is forecasting Ignacio to become post tropical beforehand. Maybe a strong extratropical cyclone.

Quoting 289. TropicalAnalystwx13:


CPHC is forecasting Ignacio to become post tropical beforehand. Maybe a strong extratropical cyclone.




Aha! I knew I was missing something... Thanks.
Ignacio could be a powerful system over northern Canada. This could be interesting to track, remnants into territorial Canada? Slim chance, but that would be fascinating.
fail, see below
Prediction: If 91L has an upper high with it maybe a monster storm. Otherwise it will be just a big POOF.

For those of us, like myself, who believe there are more things in play in this world than just Mother Nature, computer models, and learned experience, does it sort of bother any of you about "Gloria (in excelsis Deo)'s" current designation... 91l?

I mean, in seven days, on Sept. 11th, it could be right over U.S. territory, Puerto Rico, with who knows where after that.

I know I told you (mainly sar), about 10 days ago, that "confused" Erika would end up as a category 3 hurricane moving into Charleston, S.C., and that's apparently been a bust (though still, it's out there in the Gulf Stream south of there, and still active). But I'm still going to be keeping my eye on our latest potential CV, simply because this September is considered a "month of doom" for so many people who think about things in ways beyond the scientific, and historical. :-)

Jo
What??? More things play than nature?  Nature is all that is around you, you did not create it.  This is what has what is, and what will be. We are byproducts....until artificial I.  Computers will rule us, but...still can't control the #@$%^& weather.
sorry
299. MahFL
Quoting 140. FunnelVortex:

Fred giving his dying breath




Fred has done this 2 times already, he's not dead.
Quoting 294. Gearsts:




Then it dies east of us... ONCE AGAIN :/
The low that was ex-Erika has once again dissipated. There's a current blow up of convection in the general area of the former low but, as far as I can tell,it's east of there, and being caused by energy coming off the coast from a trough moving in from the northwest. If that convection can keep going overnight, the low may reform under or closer to the convection in the morning. This low, or trough, has not been able to do anything consistent. There is dry air over the CONUS that will be moving out over the coast tomorrow as well. Combined with a westward expanding high and 30 knot shear, ex-Erika is now hanging on with its bare teeth. The 06z GFS is all over the place with this low, showing it disappearing and reappearing considerably east of the Bahamas before it disappears all together by Tuesday. I expect something resembling a low to plague us over the Labor Day weekend while still never being able to organize.





Just remembered 4 years ago I finally made an account here yesterday lol
303. vis0
This

represents::

1) earth not washing its hair for over 10 days
2) dakster left the spahfetti making machine ON when dakster left to visit the SE.
3) WHO CAREs lets sing OH OH spagettiOHs. (sit down ncstorm, i didn't say dance to it)
4) Not to worry webberweather53 is on the case...it equals 3,653,173,235,334.34cents..."for you only 49.99" -Earl Shibe
5) Earth on hr 80 began to play the ...   best. ...   hits. ...  of.   ...   Wil.  ...  liam.  ...  Shatner. (CREDIT:: ricderr in using islanders101010? space bar]

weather relation?, Artic Ice melts faster as more warmer air is mixing poleward in part, due to weird jetstream.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fred, located several hundred miles west-northwest of the
Cape Verde Islands.

A tropical wave located just offshore of the west coast of Africa is
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. This system
shows signs of organization and has the potential for some
development as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical
Atlantic during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent


wow invest 91L
91L. Now at 40 to 60%
Quoting 306. hurricanes2018:


Strange that the main GFS line is so far south of the majority of the ensembles.
Quoting 308. Forsaken:

Strange that the main GFS line is so far south of the majority of the ensembles.
I was just thinking the same thing. Anyone have an answer why?
Van Morrison riffs, vis0... really? :-)

I must say I've always loved your posts, as you're either somehow beyond the normal knowledge curve here, or you're well and truly a total psychotic. :P

I'm leaning toward the former, honestly. :-)

But you're nice, funny, and with some really excellent links to current scientific news, and I, for one, am totally glad you're on board here with all of us. Long may that continue, even though I rarely understand a single thing you're saying/implying/proving. :-)

Jo
Latest Euro shows former Erika getting blocked in the Atlantic from heading OTS, then forced west by building HP.
Hmm 91L got bumped up to 40/60

If this keep up we could be seeing code red sometime later today or this time tomorrow
Quoting 313. wunderkidcayman:

Hmm 91L got bumped up to 40/60

If this keep up we could be seeing code red sometime later today or this time tomorrow
Bermuda Bound..IMO.
Quoting 313. wunderkidcayman:

Hmm 91L got bumped up to 40/60

If this keep up we could be seeing code red sometime later today or this time tomorrow

Just did a blog update on the Atlantic tropics...talk about Fightin' Fred and 91L. Fred may be with us for quiet some time as a meandering storm southwest of the Azores. My take on 91L is that it will most likely be a bit like Danny, becoming a hurricane in the MDR (Main Development Region) afterwards weakening while aiming for the Caribbean or western Atlantic. More details in the blog update.
316. vis0
anigif::


A year or so ago a WxU member was typing as to the transfer of Equatorial warmth towards Alaska.
To me the tongues of warmer vapour in this AniGif lambasting AK. & Greenland look like if fires were slowly setting the polar regions' ice/snow "on fire".
317. vis0
How many watts of energy has Kilo converted to wind & rain?
Quoting 317. vis0:

How many watts of energy has Kilo converted to wind & rain?

VisO..

Here's a LinkO
Did search..
Much effort before ingestion of my caffeine liquids.
Possible answer in PDF..
Tooo much for my head this am..
Have at it.. :)

(If your referring to ACE, there are links in WU somewhere)
Best I can do for ya this am.. :)
Quoting 313. wunderkidcayman:

Hmm 91L got bumped up to 40/60

If this keep up we could be seeing code red sometime later today or this time tomorrow
Daniel/ erica part 3.........flop
Quoting 308. Forsaken:

Strange that the main GFS line is so far south of the majority of the ensembles.
because its wrong as usual
Quoting 310. mjwillman:.


You have been a member since 2013 and this is your first comment..
Absolutely absurd..
I, for one, Cannot take you seriously..
Suggestion..
Why don't you use WU mail and hammer that out with him..??
Sigh..
i doubt you will see any development with the new invest until Fred moves out of the picture.
more model failure this time Fred Hes more west than the earlier models have said. i think we did see a gfs have him making the mid atlantic but most failed. i remember one had him up by Morrocco
91L...... JUST MORE HYPE THAT WILL FLOP
Fred barely survives....

5:00 AM AST Fri Sep 4
Location: 22.1 N 37.2 W
Moving: W at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
Quoting 319. neverhappensinflorid:

Daniel/ erica part 3.........flop


Daniel? Don't you mean Danny? Wasn't a flop, reached Cat 3.

Erica killed all those people in Dominica.
Getting ready for the florida hype again with 91l down the road.... im sure they will have it hitting florida 5 to 7 days out a but it wont
331. MahFL
Quoting 322. islander101010:

i doubt you will see any development with the new invest until Fred moves out of the picture.


Fred is too far away to affect 91L.
332. MahFL
TWC just said 91L will be a fish storm.
Quoting 332. MahFL:

TWC just said 91L will be a fish storm.
of course it will
Quoting 331. MahFL:



Fred is too far away to affect 91L.
but the sal and shear isnt... 91l goes ots and poof
335. MahFL
Fred again creating convection :

336. MahFL
Quoting 334. neverhappensinflorid:

but the sal and shear isnt... 91l goes ots and poof


You did not mention sal and shear in your post.
Quoting 297. ATLsweather:

What??? More things play than nature?  Nature is all that is around you, you did not create it.  This is what has what is, and what will be. We are byproducts....until artificial I.  Computers will rule us, but...still can't control the #@$%^& weather.

They sure are trying to control the weather, hope we are never that smart, as it will be the end for humans.


Image sorta washed out, but you can still tell 91L already has an impressive structure..
TWC just said 91L will be a fish storm this morning
91L will going up to 80% in five days soon and 60% in 48 hours at 8am
I'm not terribly worried about 91L becoming anything threatening, although it does appear it's going to take a path identical to Danny and Erika, it's probably also going to meet a similar fate.
345. FOREX
Quoting 344. CybrTeddy:

I'm not terribly worried about 91L becoming anything threatening, although it does appear it's going to take a path identical to Danny and Erika, it's probably also going to meet a similar fate.
It was mentioned earlier that it was going to be a fish storm by TWC, although I did not hear that myself, just from other bloggers.
Why hasn't NHC updated on Fred yet?
Quoting 346. weatherbda:

Why hasn't NHC updated on Fred yet?


Why would they? Next advisory isn't due out until 11am EDT.
Quoting 347. CybrTeddy:



Why would they? Next advisory isn't due out until 11am EDT.



Oops, thought they would since they updated the invest at 8am too.
Good morning over there. Rome/Italy and areas to its south are under the gun of extreme weather today. Estofex issued a level three for them:



Storm Forecast from Estofex, Valid: Fri 04 Sep 2015 10:00 to Sat 05 Sep 2015 06:00 UTC, Issued: Fri 04 Sep 2015 10:20, Forecaster: PUCIK
A level 3 was issued for parts of Central Italy mainly for excessive precipitation, large to very large hail, tornadoes and severe wind gusts. ...
SYNOPSIS
Ahead of the advancing short-wave trough crossing Iberia, strong southwesterly flow is advecting a plume of steep lapse rates over the Western and Central Mediterranean. Combined with very moist lower troposphere, high values of CAPE are forecast. 00 UTC Pratica di Mare and Palma sounding already show 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE combined with more than 20 m/s of DLS. Surface observations show dewpoints well over 20 deg C at some stations near the coastlines. As lapse rates get even steeper, it is likely that CAPE will locally exceed 3000 J/kg.
DISCUSSION
... Balearic Islands towards Central Italy and the Adriatics coastline ...
An impressive setup is forecast with moderate to high CAPE values overlaping with 20 to 30 m/s of DLS. Such setup favours strong, very well organised DMC, including long-lived supercells or large MCS. Satellite loops are already showing pronounced thunderstorm in a belt from Balearic Islands towards Sardegna and Corsica. Storms will gradually progress eastward during the day towards Italy. The highest risk of severe weather will develop along the western coastline of Central Italy especially in the evening and night hours as low level shear exceeds 10 m/s and SREH reaches more than 250 m2/s2. The most prominent threat will be excessive precipitation, given the very high moisture content in the atmosphere, as well as training pattern of cells, which is already evident on the satellite. Due to the very strong DLS and steep lapse rates, storms will be capable of large to very large hail and severe wind gusts. Especially in the evening and night time, tornadoes will certainly be possible given the ramp up in the LLS and low LCLs of the storms evident from the soundings. It is likely that storms will be ongoing to the early morning hours without any signficant weakening of the activity.
A small Lvl 3 is issued for an area with the highest combined risk. ...



Development of stormsystems with very cold cloud tops in the Mediterranean (updating loop).
It's gradually organizing.
Quoting 344. CybrTeddy:

I'm not terribly worried about 91L becoming anything threatening, although it does appear it's going to take a path identical to Danny and Erika, it's probably also going to meet a similar fate.


If it makes it to the western Atlantic instead of going out to sea, only thing I'd worry about is if it stays organized just enough and goes just north of the Leewards and PR, which Erika (and aside from organization Danny) didn't do. That's the sweet spot.
Quoting 353. win1gamegiantsplease:



If it makes it to the western Atlantic instead of going out to sea, only thing I'd worry about is if it stays organized just enough and goes just north of the Leewards and PR, which Erika (and aside from organization Danny) didn't do. That's the sweet spot.
IF it gets there...
Quoting 309. unknowncomic:

I was just thinking the same thing. Anyone have an answer why?
Different initialization points and the strength of the storm.
356. JRRP
Quoting 344. CybrTeddy:

I'm not terribly worried about 91L becoming anything threatening, although it does appear it's going to take a path identical to Danny and Erika, it's probably also going to meet a similar fate.


well....


ONLY 60% IN five days
Becoming a little better organized.


watching !!


something to watch on the east coast!!
91L looking more and more like Grace. Looks better than TS Kevin ever did
Quoting 354. Camerooski:

IF it gets there...

Quoting 353. win1gamegiantsplease:



If it makes it to the western Atlantic instead of going out to sea, only thing I'd worry about is if it stays organized just enough and goes just north of the Leewards and PR, which Erika (and aside from organization Danny) didn't do. That's the sweet spot.
Sorry Viking, didn't see your earlier post. We do this all the time.
Quoting 105. AdamReith:

"Figure 4. Sea ice concentration for September 1, 2015" in the blog post is a real mind blower.

Look at the size of the NE Passage! Throughout the history of ocean trade, that route has been closed by ice all year 'round. Until this century, that is. Now, it is wide open to shipping every year in late summer.


It's open but still dangerous to make this transit esp at places where the pack ice is still close to the coast.
As I've posted before, I worry about poorly insured and supported freighters trying it and experiencing an accident..

Oh what a beautiful Morning!
If you substitute the beach for the cornfields this song is very apropo for this morning on the NW FL coast!
Oh What A Beautiful Morning!

Quoting 363. Camerooski:

91L looking more and more like Grace. Looks better than TS Kevin ever did



Kevin is in the E PAC
I say NHC bumps up TWO to code red in either 5day or both 48hr and 5 day

I think 91L will take a similar path like Danny and Erika towards the E Caribbean IMO
91L looks good now but probably won't do much more than go OTS to the fishes. Here's to watchin another one for the next week or so. let's see how much pump up and hype we can get out of this one lol.
378. JRRP
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 58 sHace 59 segundos Ver traducción
#91L is in a favorable environment for genesis now, but a suppressed CCKW awaits. Interaction between 9/8-9/12
91L is going too be a big one i think this one will have the best ch out of the other 2 to with stan the shear better
Quoting 378. JRRP:

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 58 sHace 59 segundos Ver traducción
#91L is in a favorable environment for genesis now, but a suppressed CCKW awaits. Interaction between 9/8-9/12


IF it's not the SAL, then it's the windshears.

AND if it's not the SAL AND the windshears, THEN IT'S A SUPRESSED CCKW :(((

Enough is enough.
381. JRRP
Quoting 380. CaribBoy:



IF it's not the SAL, then it's the windshears.

AND if it's not the SAL AND the windshears, THEN IT'S A SUPRESSED CCKW :(((

Enough is enough.

lol
Here's to watchin another one for the next week or so. let's see how much pump up and hype we can get out of this one lol.


OH YEAH BRUTHA!!!!

...this one is the mother of all storms....cat 5 in the making......destruction.....even if only a fish storm....well...the fish are gonna suffer........people all over the eastern seaboard.....in any atlantic island.......eastern seaboard of mexico.......please for the love of all things holy....board up now and evacuate....cruise ships....cancel all operations and move your ships across the panama canal to the pacific immediately.....disney...universal..sea world...bush gardens even....close up shop for the next two weeks to keep the tourists out.....cancel all major sporting events.....suspend all air traffic......all states should declare a state of emergency and nationalize the state guard...people...stay indoors once you have evacuated....

WHEW....

i think that takes care of hype!!!!!

Now....i can wait and see what happens and watch the events take shape as they happen
Quoting 380. CaribBoy:



IF it's not the SAL, then it's the windshears.

AND if it's not the SAL AND the windshears, THEN IT'S A SUPRESSED CCKW :(((

Enough is enough.



take a a chill pill
Quoting 383. Tazmanian:




take a a chill pill


LOL already done
Quoting 380. CaribBoy:



IF it's not the SAL, then it's the windshears.

AND if it's not the SAL AND the windshears, THEN IT'S A SUPRESSED CCKW :(((

Enough is enough.

If it is the suppressed convection side of a CCKW then that actually helps formation based on one of Schrecks papers due to increased upper level outflow and enhanced vorticity


Finally a very beautiful clear blue sky with instability :)

No wind, no SAL, flat sea, extremly hot! Very nice weather for beach goers. I love september-october-november.
387. MahFL
Humidity here in Orange Park has fallen below 60 % in what seems like weeks, currently 57%.
388. SLU
Quoting 380. CaribBoy:



IF it's not the SAL, then it's the windshears.

AND if it's not the SAL AND the windshears, THEN IT'S A SUPRESSED CCKW :(((

Enough is enough.


#SuperElNino

389. SLU
Quoting 386. CaribBoy:



Finally a very beautiful clear blue sky with instability :)

No wind, no SAL, flat sea, extremly hot! Very nice weather for beach goers. I love september-october-november.


How much rain have you had for the year. St Barts looks like the Sahara.
Quoting 388. SLU:



#SuperElNino




Lol yes, so I'm not surprised. But somewhat disappointed
91L

91L is almost a depression right now, they could declare it later today. It has the convection and structure already, and nothing looks to be slowing the organization down.
This wave looks very impressive, and lots of moist atmosphere ahead of it.
But if it organizes too quickly into a strong storm then it will drift north and re-curve out to open seas.
Quoting 374. hydrus:





how fast is invest 91L moving
Quoting 389. SLU:



How much rain have you had for the year. St Barts looks like the Sahara.

The wind shear will increase as winter approaches, especially at lower latitudes, associated with a lower latitude Pacific jet generated by El Nino conditions.
I am curious if the ex-Ignacio low that will drift over Alaska/Canada will then drift southeast into the Great Lakes and Midwest for a drenching late-summer storm.
Quoting 105. AdamReith:

"Figure 4. Sea ice concentration for September 1, 2015" in the blog post is a real mind blower.

Look at the size of the NE Passage! Throughout the history of ocean trade, that route has been closed by ice all year 'round. Until this century, that is. Now, it is wide open to shipping every year in late summer.


You need to add the text "European " to "history of ocean trade". The start of the European exploration coincided with the Little Ice Age starting around 1500. Had exploration started around 1000 AD during with the Medieval Warm Period we might be discussing the "re-opening of the NE passage".
Quoting 395. hurricanes2018:



how fast is invest 91L moving

About 16 mph.


watching ex-Erika
Very interesting.... 7+ days remaining in the Atlantic

Tropical Depression FRED Forecast Discussion

Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive

000
WTNT41 KNHC 041446
TCDAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 04 2015

Fred consists of a tight swirl of low clouds with intermittent
bursts of deep convection. There has been no scatterometer data over
the cyclone for several hours, but it appears that the circulation
is not as vigorous as it was yesterday. Dvorak T-numbers are
gradually decreasing, and on this basis, the initial intensity has
been lowered to 30 kt.

The shear is forecast to remain high during the next 48 hours or so,
resulting in additional weakening. Fred is expected to become a
remnant low tonight or Saturday, however, most of the global
models suggest that the shear near the system could relax in 3
days. If Fred still exists by then, and given that the ocean is
anomalously warm in the North Atlantic, there is a chance of
regeneration. This would likely occur after Fred or its remnants
recurve into the mid-latitude westerlies.

The depression is moving toward the west or 280 degrees at 9 kt,
steered by a subtropical high to its north. A strong mid-latitude
trough is forecast by the global models to deepen in the central
Atlantic during the next 2 days, and this pattern will force Fred to
recurve northeastward. This is indicated in the NHC forecast, which
follows the reliable dynamical guidance very closely. It is
interesting to note that the GFS global model in the past couple of
runs keeps Fred lingering across the North Atlantic for more than a
week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 22.3N 38.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 22.6N 39.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 23.0N 41.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/0000Z 24.0N 42.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/1200Z 25.0N 42.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/1200Z 28.0N 40.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
96H 08/1200Z 30.5N 36.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H 09/1200Z 34.0N 31.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION

$$
Forecaster Avila
Quoting 389. SLU:



How much rain have you had for the year. St Barts looks like the Sahara.


Less than 200 mm (8"). Record dry...
No wonder 91L is developing so quickly.... it's in 28-29 degrees Celsius water.
Hey everyone.  Had a busy morning and just logged on.  Amazing; the Atlantic Ocean (blob city) looks like the ITCZ that we normally see stretching between Africa and the Caribbean this year, decided to move North by several hundred miles......................................



Not terribly dry around it? Some on SE side...
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 388. SLU:



#SuperElNino



No season in recent times was as dull as 2013, and this year is already better than that- that's what I'm thankful for. I think 2013 was rock bottom, and especially starting next year, I believe we will see a turn back towards more robust Atlantic activity.
Quoting 394. AlexanderRG:

This wave looks very impressive, and lots of moist atmosphere ahead of it.
But if it organizes too quickly into a strong storm then it will drift north and re-curve out to open seas.


Greetings RG..Indeed, and this is a very organised looking system considering it has just emerged off the West African coast. Dangerous hurricanes are made in this way. I hope it stays away from land.