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Arctic sea ice in record retreat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:42 PM GMT on July 08, 2011

The summer melt season is in full swing in the Arctic, and sea ice there is in record retreat. Arctic sea ice is currently at its lowest extent on record for early July, according to estimates from the National Snow and Ice Data Center and University of Bremen. Moreover, Arctic sea ice volume is at its lowest on record, according to the University of Washington Polar Science Center, and during June 2011, was reduced by nearly half (47%) compared to its maximum at the beginning of the satellite era, in 1979. The latest surface analysis from Environment Canada shows a 1039 mb high pressure system centered north of Alaska, which is bringing clear skies and plenty of ice-melting sunshine to the Arctic. The combined action of the clockwise flow of air around the high and counter-clockwise flow of air around a low pressure system near the western coast of Siberia is driving warm, southerly winds into the Arctic that is pushing ice away from the coast of Siberia, encouraging further melting. This pressure pattern, known as the Arctic Dipole, was dominant over the Arctic during June, leading to June having the 2nd lowest extent on record, and the record low extent observed at the beginning of July. The Arctic Dipole began emerging in the late 1990s, and was unknown before then; thus climate change is suspected as its primary cause. The Arctic Dipole has become increasingly common in the last six years, and has contributed significantly to the record retreat of Arctic sea ice.


Figure 1. Arctic sea ice extent as of July 7, 2011, as estimated by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Ice extent during the first week of July was slightly less than the previous record low set in 2007 (dashed green line.)

The previous all-time record year for sea ice loss: 2007
The all-time summer Arctic sea ice melt occurred in 2007, when a "perfect storm" of weather conditions came together to cause a stunning amount of ice loss. Unusually strong high pressure over the Arctic led to clear skies and plenty of sunshine. Arctic winds, which usually blow in a circular fashion around the Pole, instead blew from the south over Central Siberia, due to the Arctic Dipole pattern, injecting large amounts of warm air into the Arctic. Sea ice loss, which had been 20% in the summer of 2006 compared to the summer of 1979, doubled to 39% in 2007, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. In one year, as much ice was lost as in the previous 28 years. Compared to the 1950s, over half of the Arctic sea ice had disappeared.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent since 1900, as estimated from satellite and ship reports compiled by Walsh and Chapman (2001). Image credit: University of Illinois cryosphere group.

The forecast
Summertime Arctic sea ice loss since 2007 has not been as severe, due to cooler and cloudier conditions. However, ice loss in 2008 - 2010 was worse than any year prior to 2007, and the amount of old, thick, multi-year ice has suffered steep declines. How often, then, might we expect to see a "perfect storm" of weather conditions capable of triggering record sea ice loss like in 2007? Well, at the December 2008 meeting of the American Geophysical Union, the world's largest scientific conference on climate change, J.E. Kay of the National Center for Atmospheric Research showed that Arctic surface pressure in the summer of 2007 was the fourth highest since 1948. Cloud cover at Barrow, Alaska was the sixth lowest. This suggests that once every 10 - 20 years a "perfect storm" of weather conditions highly favorable for ice loss invades the Arctic. The last two times such conditions existed was 1977 and 1987.

The latest 1-week forecast from the Canadian GEM model shows the Arctic Dipole pattern continuing, but with high pressure gradually weakening over the Arctic. This should decrease the southerly winds blowing warm air into the Arctic, and help slow down the current record retreat to just below record levels. However, the latest 2-week forecast from the GFS model shows high pressure will build back in over the Arctic during the last half of July, which would tend to increase the flow of warm air into the region again. Overall, it appears that the weather conditions during July 2011 will end up not being as favorable for ice loss as July 2007 was, but the ice is more vulnerable to melting than in 2007 due to the significant loss of old, thick, multi-year ice since 2007. It is too early to tell what may occur during August, but the forecast for July leads me to believe that we will come very close to breaking the 2007 record for all-time ice loss in September, but fall just short. Of the seventeen outlooks issued in early June by various scientific groups, only four called for 2011 to exceed 2007 for summer Arctic sea ice loss.


Figure 3. Distribution of individual Pan-Arctic Outlook values (June Report) for September 2011 sea ice extent. Image credit: ARCUS.

Invest 96L in the Atlantic little threat
An area of disturbed weather (Invest 96L) in the Gulf of Mexico centered a few hundred miles west of Tampa, Florida has become disorganized due to high wind shear of 15 - 25 knots. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts the shear will be a moderate 10 - 20 knots over the next two days as 96L moves slowly northwards towards the Florida Panhandle. The shear should keep any development slow. Water vapor satellite images show that 96L is located on the east side of an upper-level low pressure system centered over southern Louisiana. This upper level low is pumping dry, stable air into the west side of 96L, which will retard development. There is no sign of a surface circulation in 96L, and none of the reliable computer models is developing it. NHC is giving 96L a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. The storm has brought a region of 2 - 4 inches of rain to the coast near Tampa, and portions of the Florida Panhandle coast will likely receive 2 - 4 inches of rain this weekend when 96L moves in.


Figure 4. Radar estimated rainfall from 96L as of Friday morning.

My Arctic sea ice page has more info on Arctic sea ice, including why we care about it, and predictions on when it might all disappear.

My next post will be Monday, unless there's some unexpected development to report.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting islander101010:
it says mojo is in our basin but is it really? the mdr regions looks pretty dry at the moment.
The presence of the MJO does not directly mean there will be more convection in the region. Similarly, the lack of the MJO does not mean we can't have convection in the region. The MJO's presence favors convection, but it is not the sole factor involved in the intensity and coverage of convection in a region.

With that in mind, the MJO is in our basin but the signal, or strength, of the current upward pulse in our region is very weak. While it is forecasted to strengthen and remain in our region for the next week or two, keep in mind these are only model forecasts and the models we have are not very good at forecasting the MJO.
1502. beell
Another change to the SPC Storm Reports for you storm counters.

New: Starting July 8, 2011 the Storm Reports page has been updated to display both the new un-filtered reports side by side with the filtered version. For more info about the differences click here. Additionally, the links to display storm reports in Google Maps have been added.
spc.noaa.gov
spc.noaa.gov/FAQ 6.11
Central Caribbean Wave is offically back fully over open water

18Z map



sat



shear will soon drop down to 5-15kts well expected by 48 hours

Quoting BahaHurican:
Afternoon all, except Aussie, and a good night to u...
Iwas just thinking those Brazilian girls are going to have to hang down their heads and cry.... lol Letting the US beat them.... LOL

But from what I've seen, that US team is a pretty strong one this year. Not surpising they have been hard to beat...

'Nuff respec'....

The US womens team has always been the dominate team in world of womens soccer. If the Brazilians beat then it would be the first time ever the US was knocked out at the quater finals.
can anyone post the link for the nogap from navy
don't need to worry I found it
1507. aquak9
it was so horrid steamy yesterday here in Jacksonville, FL. Yes the Kestral is calibrated, yes that is the heat index next to newly planted okra. I'll be harvesting steamed okra!

Cloudy here in South Central Texas most of the day and still 101 degrees, now that is Hot. Looks like there is rain within 50 miles of me
Today wasn't much better. I got dehydrated pulling weeds. Temp was only about 90 but the dewpoint was 82


Quoting aquak9:
it was so horrid steamy yesterday here in Jacksonville, FL. Yes the Kestral is calibrated, yes that is the heat index next to newly planted okra. I'll be harvesting steamed okra!
look at 20 west!!
Hope this holds up for us Aqua.

new map is out!!
1513. Mucinex
Quoting aquak9:
it was so horrid steamy yesterday here in Jacksonville, FL. Yes the Kestral is calibrated, yes that is the heat index next to newly planted okra. I'll be harvesting steamed okra!



Eeeewwwww! Extra-sticky Okra!
If it was in the red clay, it'd be OkraJerky,though.

Speaking of red clay, I didn't know Jacksonville had dark soil and not clay.
Got 30 seconds of sprinkles and temp has dropped to 94, nice relief and I will take anything to keep it under 100.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Central Caribbean Wave is offically back fully over open water

18Z map



sat



shear will soon drop down to 5-15kts well expected by 48 hours

That tropical wave will be coming ashore in central America within the next 48hrs, so its not really a concern. However, it will interact with the monsoon trough to draw it further north. In the process convection over central America and the SW Caribbean will be enhanced. This will strengthen a weak upper anticyclone over the SW Caribbean which will allow upper level conditions to improve over the region. This upper level anticyclone should follow the wave as it heads into central America, however, so development within the next several days is unlikely. Perhaps by the weekend we could get something going, but this also looks a little iffy at this point and development will be slow and will take some work due to the broad monsoonal trough and competing convection over the epac and central America.

We will have to wait and see though, if anything happens at all it should stay in the west Caribbean region and take a long time to get its act together. Also expect lots of rain in central America.
Quoting TomTaylor:
The presence of the MJO does not directly mean there will be more convection in the region. Similarly, the lack of the MJO does not mean we can't have convection in the region. The MJO's presence favors convection, but it is not the sole factor involved in the intensity and coverage of convection in a region.

With that in mind, the MJO is in our basin but the signal, or strength, of the current upward pulse in our region is very weak. But it is forecasted to strengthen and remain in our region for the next week or two. However, keep in mind these are only model forecasts and the models we have are not very good at forecasting the MJO.
thanks models have been a tease climatology rules this july does not look like a few yrs ago where we had at least a couple storms just south of cuba just alot of rain
1517. HarryMc
Quoting aquak9:
it was so horrid steamy yesterday here in Jacksonville, FL. Yes the Kestral is calibrated, yes that is the heat index next to newly planted okra. I'll be harvesting steamed okra!



Add a little patty of butter next to the okra plant and have sauteed okra. Yum.
Unfortunately a huge portion of radar returns in Texas is virga again
Here's what we're looking at.

12z GFS, 12z CMC, 12z NOGAPS all develop a tropical cyclone in the SW Caribbean by next Saturday. The ECMWF shows no system, but defiantly lower pressures and some vort in that area on the 16th of Saturday. Such a system will likely have competition from the EPAC, will be slow to develop and won't be very intense.
1520. aquak9
mucinex- we have gray sandy soil. Red clay is way further north, in Georgia. But my garden beds are filled with a gardening mix, not Florida sand.
Quoting beell:
Small Moderate Risk Area

click any graphic for full discussions




I am getting SOOO SICK of all this rain!!!
hi guys are the models still developing a system in the western carribean haven't been on since friday ???
1524. Patrap
1525. beell
Quoting TaylorSelseth:
I am getting SOOO SICK of all this rain!!!


I am getting SOOO SICK of all YOUR rain, also!
(j/k)

Quoting beell:


I am getting SOOO SICK of all YOUR rain, also!
(j/k)



Wish there was some way we could send it down to folks down there!
1527. beell
Quoting TaylorSelseth:


Wish there was some way we could send it down to folks down there!


Well, we could work something out-I could send you my water bill...
It's only 5:30, but the storm clouds have made it really dark here, and I'm quite a bit north of the nasty super-cell on the ND/SD border.
Quoting Seflhurricane:
hi guys are the models still developing a system in the western carribean haven't been on since friday ???


Looking like it but steering seems to be similar to Arlene and last year.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Here's what we're looking at.

12z GFS, 12z CMC, 12z NOGAPS all develop a tropical cyclone in the SW Caribbean by next Saturday. The ECMWF shows no system, but defiantly lower pressures and some vort in that area on the 16th of Saturday. Such a system will likely have competition from the EPAC, will be slow to develop and won't be very intense.


Hello? Anyone? Bueller?
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Hello? Anyone? Bueller?
Meh, it's pretty meaningless if a model spins up a storm a week away, butterfly effect and all that.
Quoting TaylorSelseth:
Meh, it's pretty meaningless if a model spins up a storm a week away, butterfly effect and all that.


Not if multiple models are showing it and are consistent. Did the exact same thing too for Arlene.
1534. Guysgal
I have just changed to using IE 7 as my browser and now I have lost part of the right side of the blog and the like, dislike boxes have vanished. Any ideas on how I can make this right again?
Oh-oh, there's a troll out impersonating Taz. Where's Keeper?
1536. Torgen
Quoting TaylorSelseth:
Oh-oh, there's a troll out impersonating Taz. Where's Keeper?


Don't acknowledge him, "-" and "!".
1537. aquak9
Quoting TaylorSelseth:
Oh-oh, there's a troll out impersonating Taz. Where's Keeper?


I don't have a ban hammer, but I have a chainsaw. Tell me where at.
1538. Torgen
Quoting aquak9:
mucinex- we have gray sandy soil. Red clay is way further north, in Georgia. But my garden beds are filled with a gardening mix, not Florida sand.


Hey waterdog, what do you use for soil amendments? I add cow manure and potting soil to my raised beds, but the soil just turns back to sand every year. I suppose it's all seeping down into the yard, leaving the "junk" high and dry.
Gotta break it out
1544. Grothar
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Gotta break it out
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Gotta break it out


Need help Teddy. You got to hear this old song.

Grothar, that will work. ;)
strong cold front going through here right now , the temp dropped over 10F in about a hour.
1549. Grothar
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Grothar, that will work. ;)


I don't know the sign for a wink, so I hope this will do.

1550. bappit
Quoting BahaHurican:

Happy Bahamian Independence Day!
Yall should just sit back and watch Lurkster and the Taz imposter have a conversation between themselves. Most likely they're the same person.
Quoting Guysgal:
I have just changed to using IE 7 as my browser and now I have lost part of the right side of the blog and the like, dislike boxes have vanished. Any ideas on how I can make this right again?


Use firefox. There is a certain type of post (that is probably in the last 50) that messes it up for IE users.
1553. aquak9
hahaha..trolls are supposta have a GOOD name?

Torgen- you have wu-mail.

I'm gonna let this troll play out for a little while. Might be harmless, we'll see.
1554. Grothar
Quoting StAugustineFL:
Yall should just sit back and watch Lurkster and the Taz imposter have a conversation between themselves. Most likely they're the same person.


I know Lurkster. He is no troll.
Quoting Grothar:


I know Lurkster. He is no troll.


If you say so I respect that. Just saw the join date and the one lonely post. Thought something may have been going on there.
1556. Levi32
Quoting tramp96:


Is there any correlation between the subtropical ridge and the MJO?


Well one might think so, but according to NCEP reanalysis data, perhaps not much of one, at least during the hurricane season.

This image is of the 500mb anomalies associated with the 200 days during the Atlantic hurricane season with the highest MJO amplitude in phase 1 since 1974. Note the lower than normal 500mb anomalies over the SE US with blocking to the north of that, a pattern we are used to seeing when tropical activity threatens the U.S. coast. However, with the exception of some weak positive anomalies in the eastern Atlantic, the subtropical 500mb ridge does not seem to have a significantly different strength when the MJO is in phase 1 during the summer.

1558. Grothar
Quoting StAugustineFL:


If you say so I respect that. Just saw the join date and the one lonely post. Thought something may have been going on there.


He's been looking at the blog for years. I believe he had another name awhile back, but couldn't remember it. Must be an old guy like me. LOL I convinced him to join again. I keep telling him to post something, but he's afraid of aqua! hehehe
1559. aquak9
Quoting Grothar:


I know Lurkster. He is no troll.

ok, Gro, I trust you.

(waves brightly to Lurkster) Welcome to WU!
My avatar seems to be MIA....for me, anyway....can you see it ? :)
1561. Grothar
Quoting Levi32:


Well one might think so, but according to NCEP reanalysis data, perhaps not much of one, at least during the hurricane season.

This image is of the 500mb anomalies associated with the 200 days during the Atlantic hurricane season with the highest MJO amplitude in phase 1 since 1974. Note the lower than normal 500mb anomalies over the SE US with blocking to the north of that, a pattern we are used to seeing when tropical activity threatens the U.S. coast. However, with the exception of some weak positive anomalies in the eastern Atlantic, the subtropical 500mb ridge does not seem to have a significantly different strength when the MJO is in phase 1 during the summer.



Levi, I usually don't have to ask you anything, because I usually know all the answers anyway. I just have two quick questions:

1. When do you expect the tropics to begin getting a little active. (real question)

2. What is the meaning of life?

1562. Grothar
Quoting EYEStoSEA:
My avatar seems to be MIA....for me, anyway....can you see it ? :)


No, at least I cannot. But don't worry EYES. It is the content of one's character that is important, not their avatar. If you still can't get your image, I promise when I return, I will help you restore it.
1563. aquak9
I'm not levi...heck I haven't even stayed at a Holiday Inn Express. But hey, I got this one:

1. When do you expect the tropics to begin getting a little active. (real question)

2. What is the meaning of life?

1. In two weeks.
2. Gophers.
Another wave nails Uganda with crop & stock killing hail.
1565. Grothar
Quoting aquak9:
I'm not levi...heck I haven't even stayed at a Holiday Inn Express. But hey, I got this one:

1. When do you expect the tropics to begin getting a little active. (real question)

2. What is the meaning of life?

1. In two weeks.
2. Gophers.


No wonder lurker is afraid to come on. At least post a shear pattern or something.
Quoting Grothar:


No, at least I cannot. But don't worry EYES. It is the content of one's character that is important, not their avatar. If you still can't get your image, I promise when I return, I will help you restore it.


Well, Otay.....hmmm....gotta put my thinking cap on ~~~~ TY, Grothar :))
Quoting Grothar:


Levi, I usually don't have to ask you anything, because I usually know all the answers anyway. I just have two quick questions:

1. When do you expect the tropics to begin getting a little active. (real question)

2. What is the meaning of life?



1. In two weeks.

2. For us to do whatever we want to do.
1568. aquak9
Quoting Grothar:


No wonder lurker is afraid to come on. At least post a shear pattern or something.

Here is the most common shear pattern.



And maybe it's not gophers, maybe it's goats.
Quoting Grothar:


Levi, I usually don't have to ask you anything, because I usually know all the answers anyway.

no need to be so humble grothar
Quoting aquak9:

Here is the most common shear pattern.



And maybe it's not gophers, maybe it's goats.



LOLOLOL...now that Is FUNNY :000
1571. Levi32
Quoting Grothar:


Levi, I usually don't have to ask you anything, because I usually know all the answers anyway. I just have two quick questions:

1. When do you expect the tropics to begin getting a little active. (real question)

2. What is the meaning of life?



1. With the MJO gaining amplitude in phase 1 right now, I would expect a gradual increase in activity right through mid-month and probably until at least the 20th. The models are hinting strongly at another monsoonal development and the African wave train is about to get going, so we may have some activity to deal with this month. The real meat of the season won't arrive until August, but we may get something respectable here in July.

2. 42.
1572. bappit
Quoting EYEStoSEA:
My avatar seems to be MIA....for me, anyway....can you see it ? :)

Yes, it's a pretty gray.
1573. aquak9
The real meat of the season won't arrive until August, but we may get something respectable here in July.

Goats have real meat. Did you know more goat and sheep meat, and dairy products, are consumed worldwide, than cow products?

(dodges rotting veggies, runs)
if we got a hurricane now its will go out to sea!!
1575. Levi32
Using the same dates as in #1556, it is interesting to note that the mean temperature anomaly pattern when the MJO is in phase 1 has lots of warmth in the tropical Atlantic. This illustrates what we often talk about, how the MJO will tend to "hang out" where the water is warmest relative to normal.

1576. Levi32
Quoting aquak9:
The real meat of the season won't arrive until August, but we may get something respectable here in July.

Goats have real meat. Did you know more goat and sheep meat, and dairy products, are consumed worldwide, than cow products?

(dodges rotting veggies, runs)


Lol....you're real funny Aqua.
interesting tropical wave between 45w and 50w
1578. Grothar
Quoting Levi32:


1. With the MJO gaining amplitude in phase 1 right now, I would expect a gradual increase in activity right through mid-month and probably until at least the 20th. The models are hinting strongly at another monsoonal development and the African wave train is about to get going, so we may have some activity to deal with this month. The real meat of the season won't arrive until August, but we may get something respectable here in July.

2. 42.


So you let computers do your thinking for you ? LOL Maybe they were on to something. (Wonder how many will get that?)
Quoting aquak9:
The real meat of the season won't arrive until August, but we may get something respectable here in July.

Goats have real meat. Did you know more goat and sheep meat, and dairy products, are consumed worldwide, than cow products?

(dodges rotting veggies, runs)
As they say on Wikipedia [citation needed]
1580. Levi32
Quoting Grothar:


So you let computers do your thinking for you ? LOL Maybe they were on to something.


Hey, now. I have spoken of July staying fairly active through the first 15-20 days of the month until the MJO leaves (it may hang around longer than that now). With no existing features on the table, one must consult the models for hints on what the next mischief-maker may be.
1581. bappit
Levi is always hungry. It's always tidbit this and real meat that.
1582. Grothar
Quoting Levi32:


Hey, now. I have spoken of July staying fairly active through the first 15-20 days of the month until the MJO leaves (it may hang around longer than that now). With no existing features on the table, one must consult the models for hints on what the next mischief-maker may be.


I was referring to question #2. (Wonder how many will get that?) The models are interesting for the month.
1583. Levi32
Quoting bappit:
Levi is always hungry. It's always tidbit this and real meat that.


You couldn't be more correct.
Given 27 same-size cubes whose nominal values progress from 1 to 27, a 3×3×3 magic cube can be constructed such that every row, column, and corridor, and every diagonal passing through the center, comprises 3 cubes whose sum of values is 42.
Forty-two is a pronic number and an abundant number; its prime factorization 2 · 3 · 7 makes it the second sphenic number and also the second of the form { 2 · 3 · r }. As with all sphenic numbers of this form, the aliquot sum is abundant by 12. 42 is also the second sphenic number to be bracketed by twin primes; 30 is also a pronic number and also rests between two primes. 42 has a 14 member aliquot sequence 42, 54, 66, 78, 90, 144, 259, 45, 33, 15, 9, 4, 3, 1, 0 and is itself part of the aliquot sequence commencing with the first sphenic number 30. Further, 42 is the 10th member of the 3-aliquot tree.
42 is the product of the first three terms of Sylvester's sequence; like the first five such numbers it is also a primary pseudoperfect number.
It is the sum of the totient function for the first eleven integers.
It is a Catalan number. Consequently; 42 is the number of noncrossing partitions of a set of five elements, the number of triangulations of a heptagon, the number of rooted ordered binary trees with six leaves, the number of ways in which five pairs of nested parentheses can be arranged, etc.
It is the reciprocal of the sixth Bernoulli number.
It is conjectured to be the scaling factor in the leading order term of the "sixth moment of the Riemann zeta function". In particular, Conrey & Ghosh have conjectured

where the infinite product is over all prime numbers, p.[1][2]
It is the third pentadecagonal number. It is a meandric number and an open meandric number.
42 is a Størmer number.
42 is a perfect score on the USA Math Olympiad (USAMO)[3] and International Mathematical Olympiad (IMO).[4]
In base 10, this number is a Harshad number and a self number, while it is a repdigit in base 4 (as 222).
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2011

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS ANALYZED FROM
13N44W TO 5N51W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS AT THE LEADING
EDGE OF AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND IS WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER
LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ANALYZED ALONG 76W S
OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY THAT COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. WAVE
IS BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE AND JUST TO THE E OF OF AN UPPER LOW
WITH NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ANALYZED ALONG
92W/93W S OF 23N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS AT THE EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE INDICATION
OF MOISTURE AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND THUS NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/
CONVECTION.

Still think we'll see 2 named this month, one next week and one in the last week of July. Maybe a hurricane.
1587. bappit
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:

Wikipedia.
1588. Dakster

YIKES AQUAK9... I didn't know that...

I wonder if dog or cat is higher than goat, seeing as how those cultures have more people in the world that any other. I won't knock it, but I sure as heck won't try it either!

This hot weather has got to go... Mowed the grass and about passed out... BTW, that was a high heat index there water dog... I bet you went for a nice dip in the ocean or was that boiling?

Quoting Guysgal:
I have just changed to using IE 7 as my browser and now I have lost part of the right side of the blog and the like, dislike boxes have vanished. Any ideas on how I can make this right again?



sure downlode firefox 5 and it will fix evere thing
1590. bappit
Quoting Dakster:

YIKES AQUAK9... I didn't know that...

I wonder if dog or cat is higher than goat, seeing as how those cultures have more people in the world that any other. I won't knock it, but I sure as heck won't try it either!

The idea of cat or dog milk is a bit scary.
18z NOGAPS and 18z GFS all continue to agree a Tropical cyclone might spin up in the Caribbean by Saturday. ECMWF ensembles are showing a single area of 1009 mb pressures with a closed isobar in the same time frame in the SW Caribbean. UKMET shows similar.
must haveLink
something going up!!
Nice and quiet for now.

1596. JRRP
GFS still showing a very strong TW in the CATL
1597. aquak9
"I think the problem, to be quite honest with you, is that you've never actually known what the question is."

Best final line I've read in a long time. Good job, 1911.

bappit- you really made me laugh, yes that's it, Levi is always hungry. I forgot what it was like to be his age, eat all ya want, never gain a pound. Now I'm gonna be looking at all his posts for food-related references.

Dak- yeah it's been mizz'rable.
Quoting Levi32:


1. With the MJO gaining amplitude in phase 1 right now, I would expect a gradual increase in activity right through mid-month and probably until at least the 20th. The models are hinting strongly at another monsoonal development and the African wave train is about to get going, so we may have some activity to deal with this month. The real meat of the season won't arrive until August, but we may get something respectable here in July.

2. 42.

Levi the nao forecast shows a strong probability that august will be a positive nao. Does this place the US in more danger because last year in August there was a negative nao which had the trough recurve all the hurricanes? Also, do you see the texas ridge moving anytime soon because its extremely hot and dry there. thanks
1599. JLPR2
Quoting JRRP:
GFS still showing a very strong TW in the CATL


That's no wave, that's a low, a step ahead from a wave.

Hmm...
1600. Dakster
Hey Presslord... How are things going? Prepped and ready for the "season"? (I hope you don't need to put plans into action though!)
Quoting Dakster:
Hey Presslord... How are things going? Prepped and ready for the "season"? (I hope you don't need to put plans into action though!)


Hey mon! we are ready....and would like to be unneeded...
I think I have a good joke for everyone tonight.

A guy walks into the gym he belongs too. He's kinda toned, but he wants to be toned enough to attract the ladies. So he walks over to his trainer to ask him something. His question was "What machines do I need to work on to get a bit more toned so I can attract the ladies?" His trainer told him "The ATM machine in the lobby."
1603. Dakster
caneswatch +1 - LOL... And so true.
1604. Grothar
Good Day to all

Very dangerous pattern for the month of august for the US. Our NAO is going to become positive which means no more trough like last year that recurved the hurricanes.. The East And Gulf Coast need to watch out this august...
1607. aquak9
yo, Joe.
---
Old Chinese Proverb....Put detergent on top shelf.... and you will jump for joy!
Quoting JRRP:
GFS still showing a very strong TW in the CATL

could you send me that link??
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Where've you been Rick? LOL
Quoting JRRP:
GFS still showing a very strong TW in the CATL

that my friend, is a low end tropical cyclone, what's that date on that ? July 17th?
Good Evening from North Florida. So the remnants of ex-96 L looking better over land and bringing us more rain this afternoon than a few days ago when it was moving North off the West coasts of FL givng the rest of the Peninsula the rain.....Perhaps it was meant to be.......
The SOI index reached a milestone tonight as it has crossed into negative territory (-0.1) for the first time since early April 2010. However, is anything significant in terms of El Nino appearing soon, as it has to go down to -8 and below to then have a El Nino in the making.

Quoting caneswatch:


Where've you been Rick? LOL


Just for you canes! Thinking about the balloons for Grothar.
Quoting neutralenso:

Levi the nao forecast shows a strong probability that august will be a positive nao. Does this place the US in more danger because last year in August there was a negative nao which had the trough recurve all the hurricanes? Also, do you see the texas ridge moving anytime soon because its extremely hot and dry there. thanks


This shows the opposite...negative NAO. Negative NAO patterns, but not excessively negative, are the patterns that allow U.S. landfalls

img src="Photobucket">
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The SOI index reached a milestone tonight as it has crossed into negative territory (-0.1) for the first time since early April 2010. However, is anything significant in terms of El Nino appearing soon, as it has to go down to -8 and below to then have a El Nino in the making.



No...in fact, it generally has to be below -0.5 for about 3 months. The ESNO update from NOAA indicates the possibility now of returning to La Nina late fall.
Quoting bappit:

Happy Bahamian Independence Day!
Thanks, bappit....

If independence means sitting around and doing practically NOTHING all day, I am a champion at it.... lol
Quoting Hurrykane:


No...in fact, it generally has to be below -0.5 for about 3 months. The ESNO update from NOAA indicates the possibility now of returning to La Nina late fall.


However,the Aussies in their ENSO updates say is -8. Here is the last update by them that talk about the number in the soi section.

Link
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


However,the Aussies in their ENSO updates say is -8. Here is the last update by them that talk about the number.

Link


Ahh...I see. However, I have my reason for personal preference of -.5 How are you tonight?
Quoting Hurrykane:


Ahh...I see. However, I have my reason for personal preference of -.5 How are you tonight?


Doing good. Preparing for the meat of the season as I am in hurricane alley and with the pattern that may shape up, the NE Caribbean may be a hot spot for some systems to track.
I wonder if meandric is in the Officeal Scrabble[TM] Dictionary....

1624. aquak9
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Old Chinese Proverb....Put detergent on top shelf.... and you will jump for joy!


Old Chinese Meteorologist Proverb:
Man with one thermometer, knows the temperature.
Man with two thermometers, will never be sure.
1625. Jax82
Quoting aquak9:


Old Chinese Meteorologist Proverb:
Man with one thermometer, knows the temperature.
Man with two thermometers, will never be sure.


Man with 3 thermometers, has too many thermometers.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Get up and dance Baha...

Oh. That. Going to do that later at Junkanoo.... lol
The best part of today [Wunderblogging all day is only second-best today.... lol] is knowing I don't hae to get up and go to work tomorrow.... Whoohoo!!!!
Quoting Hurrykane:


This shows the opposite...negative NAO. Negative NAO patterns, but not excessively negative, are the patterns that allow U.S. landfalls

img src="Photobucket">

Well then explain 2010.. in august 2010 last year we had a negative nao which caused the trough to recurve all the hurricanes
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Just for you canes! Thinking about the balloons for Grothar.


Haha thanks Geoffrey! What kind did you want for him?
1630. Levi32
Interesting. I've been playing around with MJO data a bit today, and decided to take a look at what phase the MJO was in on the dates of major hurricane landfalls in the United States. By my count there have been 18 of them since 1974, when the MJO data starts. Interestingly, there is not a significant pattern. The distribution is slightly skewed towards phases 1 and 2, but a great deal of the points fall within the "igloo" or whatever you want to call that inner circle where the MJO is ill-defined.

In a sense this should be expected, since the MJO's greatest influence is on newly-developing tropical disturbances. Another possible explanation may be that the MJO was usually in a favorable phase during the time when these storms formed, but given that a significant portion of these storms were medium- long-track hurricanes, the MJO may have moved on to the east as the hurricanes tracked in the opposite direction, resulting in the MJO not being in the vicinity of the storms by the time they made landfall. This is why the MJO is the most useful when dealing with tropical cyclone formation regions and frequency, not maximum intensity or landfall locations.

MJO Phase Points on the Dates of U.S. Major Hurricane Landfalls since 1974:

Quoting Levi32:
Interesting. I've been playing around with MJO data a bit today, and decided to take a look at what phase the MJO was in on the dates of major hurricane landfalls in the United States. By my count there have been 18 of them since 1974, when the MJO data starts. Interestingly, there is not a significant pattern. The distribution is slightly skewed towards phases 1 and 2, but a great deal of the points fall within the "igloo" or whatever you want to call that inner circle where the MJO is ill-defined.

In a sense this should be expected, since the MJO's greatest influence is on newly-developing tropical disturbances. Another possible explanation may be that the MJO was usually in a favorable phase during the time when these storms formed, but given that a significant portion of these storms were medium- long-track hurricanes, the MJO may have moved on to the east as the hurricanes tracked in the opposite direction, resulting in the MJO not being in the vicinity of the storms by the time they made landfall. This is why the MJO is the most useful when dealing with tropical cyclone formation regions and frequency, not maximum intensity or landfall locations.

MJO Phase Points on the Dates of U.S. Major Hurricane Landfalls since 1974:


Levi which nao phase usually has lots of US hurricane landfalls? we are going to be a positive phase in August
Quoting Levi32:
Interesting. I've been playing around with MJO data a bit today, and decided to take a look at what phase the MJO was in on the dates of major hurricane landfalls in the United States. By my count there have been 18 of them since 1974, when the MJO data starts. Interestingly, there is not a significant pattern. The distribution is slightly skewed towards phases 1 and 2, but a great deal of the points fall within the "igloo" or whatever you want to call that inner circle where the MJO is ill-defined.

In a sense this should be expected, since the MJO's greatest influence is on newly-developing tropical disturbances. Another possible explanation may be that the MJO was usually in a favorable phase during the time when these storms formed, but given that a significant portion of these storms were medium- long-track hurricanes, the MJO may have moved on to the east as the hurricanes tracked in the opposite direction, resulting in the MJO not being in the vicinity of the storms by the time they made landfall. This is why the MJO is the most useful when dealing with tropical cyclone formation regions and frequency, not maximum intensity or landfall locations.

MJO Phase Points on the Dates of U.S. Major Hurricane Landfalls since 1974:

wait did you find the phase for when the major hurricane made landfall or when it formed?

I would think the MJO's influence is greatest, or most important, when a storm is just trying to form. Once its already a hurricane, I would think its influence would still be there, but just not as important.

Just my guess at it
very warm water temp everywhere!!
Thanks for the update.

In the Arctic, areas of the ocean are once again warmer than usual: the Labrador Current region's warmth spills over into Hudson Bay, while western Greenland is only about 12C warmer than average. This will increase heat build-up in this region.



Interestingly, a stretch in the Central Caribbean with higher moderate shear overtop the tropical wave is also cooler than the surrounding water. A likely cause is the high moisture content of the atmopshere funneled by the large Bermuda High, while the shear itself is an effect of the cooler waters. Drought across the southern CONUS is allowing the northern Gulf to heat up more quickly than usual.
Quoting Jax82:


Man with 3 thermometers, has too many thermometers.


man with 3 thermometers is a climate change scientist

Quoting Levi32:
Interesting. I've been playing around with MJO data a bit today, and decided to take a look at what phase the MJO was in on the dates of major hurricane landfalls in the United States. By my count there have been 18 of them since 1974, when the MJO data starts. Interestingly, there is not a significant pattern. The distribution is slightly skewed towards phases 1 and 2, but a great deal of the points fall within the "igloo" or whatever you want to call that inner circle where the MJO is ill-defined.

In a sense this should be expected, since the MJO's greatest influence is on newly-developing tropical disturbances. Another possible explanation may be that the MJO was usually in a favorable phase during the time when these storms formed, but given that a significant portion of these storms were medium- long-track hurricanes, the MJO may have moved on to the east as the hurricanes tracked in the opposite direction, resulting in the MJO not being in the vicinity of the storms by the time they made landfall. This is why the MJO is the most useful when dealing with tropical cyclone formation regions and frequency, not maximum intensity or landfall locations.

MJO Phase Points on the Dates of U.S. Major Hurricane Landfalls since 1974:



Rather strange findings Levi. I have since knowing the little i do know, have seen a greater in my mind anyways,influence of Tropical Development during stronger Moisture conditions. Not dry ones. MJO brings the added moisture i would have thought to get a storm going. I have no idea tho since i have not looked into the history that deep. I do believe the Caribbean it seems is much more influenced by MJO than without the added Moisture not there!
Do any of you get a message that says 404 not found, every once in a while when trying to reload the blog?
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Do any of you get a message that says 404 not found, every once in a while when trying to reload the blog?



I have seen that before.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Rather strange findings Levi. I have since knowing the little i do know, have seen a greater in my mind anyways,influence of Tropical Development during stronger Moisture conditions. Not dry ones. MJO brings the added moisture i would have thought to get a storm going. I have no idea tho since i have not looked into the history that deep. I do believe the Caribbean it seems is much more influenced by MJO than without the added Moisture not there!


No, it's quite true that the positive MJO strongly correlates with increased tropical cyclone activity, though it is less important during the peak of the season.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Interestingly, a stretch in the Central Caribbean with higher moderate shear overtop the tropical wave is also cooler than the surrounding water. A likely cause is the high moisture content of the atmopshere funneled by the large Bermuda High, while the shear itself is an effect of the cooler waters.
The higher shear is due to an upper level low over the west Caribbean which has kinda detached from the TUTT. The cooler SSTs over the central Caribbean is likely due to the stronger trade winds over the central Caribbean. The central Caribbean is notorious for having the strongest trade winds in the entire Caribbean. Stronger winds means more mixing, upwelling, and evaporative cooling which cools SSTs.
Quoting neutralenso:

Levi which nao phase usually has lots of US hurricane landfalls? we are going to be a positive phase in August


Excerpt from a paper from Elsner (et.al)

The relationship between October-January NAO and hurricane tracks is more complex.
A weak fall/winter NAO is associated with weaker middle latitude weather systems (and thus less
precipitation) over North America and Europe. The relatively dry fall/winter season continues
into spring and the dry conditions subsequently lead to a tendency for greater middle tropospheric ridging during the summer and fall. Ridging over the eastern and western sides of the North
Atlantic basin during the hurricane season displaces the middle tropospheric trough of lower
pressures to the north. The trough, which induces hurricane movement to the north and east,
is therefore unable to recurve hurricanes that are moving westward toward the United States
thus increasing the probability of landfalls along the Gulf and southeast coasts. Support for
this hypothesis comes from the positive correlation between monthly precipitation totals from
January through May at stations in a region extending from Ohio to Massachusetts and fall/winter
NAO values. In other words, weak fall/winter NAO conditions lead to less precipitation, more
ridging, less recurvature, and a higher probability of landfall
Quoting KoritheMan:


No, it's quite true that the positive MJO strongly correlates with increased tropical cyclone activity, though it is less important during the peak of the season.


I agree, but not sure how Levi found what he found. I am sure he did his work tho as he never short takes anything!
Quoting Hurrykane:


Excerpt from a paper from Elsner (et.al)

The relationship between October-January NAO and hurricane tracks is more complex.
A weak fall/winter NAO is associated with weaker middle latitude weather systems (and thus less
precipitation) over North America and Europe. The relatively dry fall/winter season continues
into spring and the dry conditions subsequently lead to a tendency for greater middle tropospheric ridging during the summer and fall. Ridging over the eastern and western sides of the North
Atlantic basin during the hurricane season displaces the middle tropospheric trough of lower
pressures to the north. The trough, which induces hurricane movement to the north and east,
is therefore unable to recurve hurricanes that are moving westward toward the United States
thus increasing the probability of landfalls along the Gulf and southeast coasts. Support for
this hypothesis comes from the positive correlation between monthly precipitation totals from
January through May at stations in a region extending from Ohio to Massachusetts and fall/winter
NAO values. In other words, weak fall/winter NAO conditions lead to less precipitation, more
ridging, less recurvature, and a higher probability of landfall

So what do you see happening next month and september?
1645. beell
Quoting Levi32:
Interesting. I've been playing around with MJO data a bit today, and decided to take a look at what phase the MJO was in on the dates of major hurricane landfalls in the United States. By my count there have been 18 of them since 1974, when the MJO data starts. Interestingly, there is not a significant pattern. The distribution is slightly skewed towards phases 1 and 2, but a great deal of the points fall within the "igloo" or whatever you want to call that inner circle where the MJO is ill-defined.

In a sense this should be expected, since the MJO's greatest influence is on newly-developing tropical disturbances. Another possible explanation may be that the MJO was usually in a favorable phase during the time when these storms formed, but given that a significant portion of these storms were medium- long-track hurricanes, the MJO may have moved on to the east as the hurricanes tracked in the opposite direction, resulting in the MJO not being in the vicinity of the storms by the time they made landfall. This is why the MJO is the most useful when dealing with tropical cyclone formation regions and frequency, not maximum intensity or landfall locations.

MJO Phase Points on the Dates of U.S. Major Hurricane Landfalls since 1974:



Interesting, for sure, Levi. Would be curious to see if a better correlation exists in the western and eastern Pacific since this is where the zonal wind anomaly of the MJO is thought to be most evident.

Or maybe EPAC and Western Caribbean?

Quoting neutralenso:

So what do you see happening next month and september?


Here's the current MSLP MEANS for the months of AUG/SEP

img src="Photobucket">


img src="Photobucket">

I did some research the other day...I have always used 1024mb as the point to determine Negative NAO phase...in other words, above 1024 would be positive. My research verified that the "normalized" or avg pressure of the A/B high is 1024 mb.
Quoting Hurrykane:


Here's the current MSLP MEANS for the months of AUG/SEP

img src="Photobucket">


img src="Photobucket">

I'm sorry but the map didnt load on my computer. Could you please explain what it shows for august and september like either its a bad sign for the US or a good sign? Thank You
Just curious. Anybody got anything for 1482? Scanned the blog since then and didn't see any replies...

Thanks in advance if you do.
Quoting neutralenso:

I'm sorry but the map didnt load on my computer. Could you please explain what it shows for august and september like either its a bad sign for the US or a good sign? Thank You


See if this works




1650. tramp96
Quoting BLee2333:
Just curious. Anybody got anything for 1482? Scanned the blog since then and didn't see any replies...

Thanks in advance if you do.


1494
Quoting Hurrykane:


See if this works





im sorry but my computer wont show me any images just words. Could you please explain if august and september are good or bad for the US? thanks
Quoting neutralenso:

im sorry but my computer wont show me any images just words. Could you please explain if august and september are good or bad for the US? thanks


Sure...August looks like the subtropical ridge noses right up to the ridge over the east coast, centered just south of west Virginia...1015mb

Sep may provide some recurves, provided storms are not pushed too far south when they come off Africa, however, the orientation suggests that all the systems we may see in Sep, may not recurve.
Quoting Hurrykane:


Sure...August looks like the subtropical ridge noses right up to the ridge over the east coast, centered just south of west Virginia...1015mb

Sep may provide some recurves, provided storms are not pushed too far south when they come off Africa, however, the orientation suggests that all the systems we may see in Sep, may not recurve.

So basically a dangerous pattern for the US correct? and thank you
Wow, I really need this coffe! I scanned right over that response. I think it may have had to do with the word "developed" in it which caused my brain to block the whole response out...

Anyhow, thank you Grothar for posting and Tramp for finding it!
Quoting neutralenso:

im sorry but my computer wont show me any images just words. Could you please explain if august and september are good or bad for the US? thanks



Those are the peak months for Tropical Activity so, with that and only seeing what the current trends are looking. Best guess would be by the end of July the activity will start going and with the current position of the Bermuda High, the ConUs is possibly in serious trouble. We was spared last year by a persistent trough. That trough might not be there this year if the Bermuda High stays in that position.
Quoting BLee2333:
Just curious. Anybody got anything for 1482? Scanned the blog since then and didn't see any replies...

Thanks in advance if you do.


Found this short-term temperature model for Kuwait and SE Iraq: Link

Fixing Iraq's War-Torn Weather Service
Quoting Hurrykane:


Excerpt from a paper from Elsner (et.al)

The relationship between October-January NAO and hurricane tracks is more complex.
A weak fall/winter NAO is associated with weaker middle latitude weather systems (and thus less
precipitation) over North America and Europe. The relatively dry fall/winter season continues
into spring and the dry conditions subsequently lead to a tendency for greater middle tropospheric ridging during the summer and fall. Ridging over the eastern and western sides of the North
Atlantic basin during the hurricane season displaces the middle tropospheric trough of lower
pressures to the north. The trough, which induces hurricane movement to the north and east,
is therefore unable to recurve hurricanes that are moving westward toward the United States
thus increasing the probability of landfalls along the Gulf and southeast coasts. Support for
this hypothesis comes from the positive correlation between monthly precipitation totals from
January through May at stations in a region extending from Ohio to Massachusetts and fall/winter
NAO values. In other words, weak fall/winter NAO conditions lead to less precipitation, more
ridging, less recurvature, and a higher probability of landfall

thanks. I've heard that during a negative NAO the Azores/Bermuda high is more spread out, whereas during the positive NAO its more focused and concentrated over the Azores, meaning we usually see more landfalls during the negative phase.
Quoting TampaSpin:



Those are the peak months for Tropical Activity so, with that and only seeing what the current trends are looking. Best guess would be by the end of July the activity will start going and with the current position of the Bermuda High, the ConUs is possibly in serious trouble. We was spared last year by a persistent trough. That trough might not be there this year if the Bermuda High stays in that position.

Well im hearing that the trough last year was caused by a negative nao phase which had that persistent east coast trough but the models show a positive nao phase in august meaning less troughiness more ridging so it will be a dangerous year for the US..
big east coast trough end of this week!!
1662. ackee
Quoting neutralenso:

Well im hearing that the trough last year was caused by a negative nao phase which had that persistent east coast trough but the models show a positive nao phase in august meaning less troughiness more ridging so it will be a dangerous year for the US..
which area of the us and carrib do u think would be most at risk if the Bermuda HIGH remain at it current postion
Quoting neutralenso:

Well im hearing that the trough last year was caused by a negative nao phase which had that persistent east coast trough but the models show a positive nao phase in august meaning less troughiness more ridging so it will be a dangerous year for the US..


That is exactly correct! But, one cannot be certain what will occur that far in advance. Beyond 2 weeks is even very difficult. But, when you start looking at general Patterns influenced by the ESNO conditons being nuetral, one would have to highly suspect that this will be a VERY ACTIVE YEAR for ConUs Tropical Storms. The size of those storms is what is in doubt in reality at least in the back of my Brainy!
Quoting Hurrykane:


Sure...August looks like the subtropical ridge noses right up to the ridge over the east coast, centered just south of west Virginia...1015mb

Sep may provide some recurves, provided storms are not pushed too far south when they come off Africa, however, the orientation suggests that all the systems we may see in Sep, may not recurve.


You can't tell exactly what is going to be happening synoptically across the US until a storm approaches. The subtropical ridge is constantly shifting ever so slightly all the time. I refuse to believe that anyone can forecast that a certain area of the US has a "better" chance of getting hit by a tropical system based on the forecast position of the subtropical ridge a month or two in advance.
Quoting ackee:
which area of the us and carrib do u think would be most at risk if the Bermuda HIGH remain at it current postion


Currently and only Currently........Texas and Louisiana would be at highest Risk if and only if the same Bermuda High held in that position.
Quoting Hurrykane:


Here's the current MSLP MEANS for the months of AUG/SEP

img src="Photobucket">


img src="Photobucket">

I did some research the other day...I have always used 1024mb as the point to determine Negative NAO phase...in other words, above 1024 would be positive. My research verified that the "normalized" or avg pressure of the A/B high is 1024 mb.
hurrykane, where are you getting your MSLP maps from?
i think you are going to see lots of fish storms this year on the east coast in august
1668. srada
Hey Guys,

I posted this a while ago by Allan Huffman who said that the East Coast would get more troughs and had asked the question about this turning more storms out to sea..I also posted model runs of the A/B high retrograding back which would set up more landfall for the US..seeing how the conversation today has taken that turn, I ask again, who will win? the high or troughs?

"However, I am seeing signs in the 11-15 day period that the Bering Sea positive height anomaly may retrogress towards eastern Asia which would send a trough into the Aleutians and perhaps ridging into the western US, and more troughiness in the eastern US.

Link
1669. JLPR2
Hmm looking at the current deep steering layer and considering it stays like that, the NE Caribbean could have a few scares and CA/Mexico would be sitting ducks. The US Gulf Coast seems to be guarded by that big high.

Quoting tramp96:


1494
If that's the Iraq qtn, I'd also suggest sat24.com or intellicast.com.

Quoting ackee:
which area of the us and carrib do u think would be most at risk if the Bermuda HIGH remain at it current postion
Just about all of us would potentially be under the gun at some point, ackee, depending on the actual location of the high at a given time. The thing about this setup is that it reduces the likelihood of an early recurve. So July-August systems might be more likely to end up moving through the Caribbean and Bahamas, Aug-Sep storms might end up anywhere from Bermuda to New York, including the GoM. IIRC, the only area that's not favored under this pattern is SW CAR [I mean Guatemala / Honduras], and that's only true until October rolls around. But really the basin is "open for business", and it's difficult to be specific. Just about all of us potentially would be at risk.
Quoting Chucktown:


You can't tell exactly what is going to be happening synoptically across the US until a storm approaches. The subtropical ridge is constantly shifting ever so slightly all the time. I refuse to believe that anyone can forecast that a certain area of the US has a "better" chance of getting hit by a tropical system based on the forecast position of the subtropical ridge a month or two in advance.
Hey, Chuck... best illustration of this for me is the new gridded forecast map TAFB is producing...

Quoting TampaSpin:


Currently and only Currently........Texas and Louisiana would be at highest Risk if and only if the same Bermuda High held in that position.
So these storms would be forming in the GoM, then?

Because if not, there's the whole Caribbean island archipelago, possibly the Yucatan, and alternatively the Bahamas / TCI and FL in the way....
1673. JLPR2
Quoting BahaHurican:
So these storms would be forming in the GoM, then?

Because if not, there's the whole Caribbean island archipelago, possibly the Yucatan, and alternatively the Bahamas / TCI and FL in the way....


That's called being US-centric. I have gotten used to it after four years of WU-blogging. :\
Quoting JLPR2:


That's called being US-centric. I have gotten used to it after four years of WU-blogging. :\
LOL.... I thought he meant this monsoonal pattern would mean more formation in the GOM itself, like last year's Alex...
1676. JLPR2
Quoting BahaHurican:
LOL.... I thought he meant this monsoonal pattern would mean more formation in the GOM itself, like last year's Alex...


XD
I'm sure he didn't mean the islands Mexico or CA are less important or anything, he just focused on the US areas of impact.

Why would storms not form in the Caribbean or CATL?
Currently a fair amount of shear in the CAR [due at least partially to a large ULL there] plus monsoonal development seems to take much longer to pull together, meaning worst impacts often end up in GOM as opposed to Car...
Evening everyone I have not been on since last year.Got some cool lightning off the south side of Grand Cayman tonight associated with the tropical wave moving through im guessing I took some pics I'm not sure how to post a pic but here is the link..for those interested

Link
This reminds me of this time last year.Where it was dead and people looked and prayed to the models to produce a storm.I'll just sit back and relax.Speaking of sitting back my Husband is taking me out to dinner tomorrow at my favorite seafood resturant.Hiya!!!

Quoting JLPR2:
The US Gulf Coast seems to be guarded by that big high.


Until it moves, pretty much.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Currently a fair amount of shear in the CAR [due at least partially to a large ULL there] plus monsoonal development seems to take much longer to pull together, meaning worst impacts often end up in GOM as opposed to Car...


IIRC, last I checked the GFS was predicting shear to decrease across most of the Caribbean, and even if it doesn't this appears to be a SW Caribbean event only. Its a week away, so shear's going to change more than likely.

Quoting Saltydogbwi1:
Evening everyone I have not been on since last year.Got some cool lightning off the south side of Grand Cayman tonight associated with the tropical wave moving through im guessing I took some pics I'm not sure how to post a pic but here is the link..for those interested

Link
Excellent pic.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


IIRC, last I checked the GFS was predicting shear to decrease across most of the Caribbean, and even if it doesn't this appears to be a SW Caribbean event only. Its a week away, so shear's going to change more than likely.


Does this look like decreasing shear to you?

00z GFS develops a system just off of Africa...





Quoting KoritheMan:


Does this look like decreasing shear to you?



Well, last I checked was 72 hours ago ;)
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
00z GFS develops a system just off of Africa...







Definitely looks like enough closed isobars on that second image to justify labeling it a tropical cyclone.

Still, this is only of trifling importance as of now, given the uncertainty.
Quoting KoritheMan:

Excellent pic.



Thanks ;-)
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
00z GFS develops a system just off of Africa...







July Cape Verde systems are extremely rare, but remember back in 2008 the GFS did catch Bertha first, if it shows this in several more runs.. its possible.
00z GFS is very interesting so far...

1). Develops a CV wave

2). Develops a system off of the SC coastline

3). Has a monster monsoonal system winding up over CA.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
00z GFS is very interesting so far...

1). Develops a CV wave

2). Develops a system off of the SC coastline

3). Has a monster monsoonal system winding up over CA.
I think this all hints at the tropics being more active in the future as July closes out and as we get into early august.
1693. JRRP
lol

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
00z GFS develops a system just off of Africa...





same wave over Africa levi mentioned earlier today over east Africa.
1695. Gearsts
Quoting JRRP:
lol

link to that run?
Quoting TomTaylor:
same wave over Africa levi mentioned earlier today over east Africa.


Same one.
Quoting Gearsts:
link to that run?


Link
Very skeptical with any possible CV development or development off the SC coast until we see persistent consistency and model support from the ECMWF, or from both the CMC and NOGAPS. Note however, the GFS shows a 2nd impressive (probably invest) wave behind the first.
Quoting JRRP:
lol

Bret and Cindy?.Is that you!?.Please stay out in the ocean...
Quoting JRRP:
lol

And speaking of which what time frame is this from?
1701. JLPR2
Quoting KoritheMan:

Until it moves, pretty much.


Yeah :\ That proves it's pretty much impossible to know what areas are in risk since it all changes in a blink of an eye.
Ah, weather is so unpredictable.
Quoting JLPR2:


Yeah :\ That proves it's pretty much impossible to know what areas are in risk since it all changes in a blink of an eye.
Ah, weather is so unpredictable.
That's what makes it so unique.Before the weather channel turned into a boatload of crap/advertising I use to watch them almost everyday for hours(please don't ask why).Every hour the weather would change,and it would keep me glued to the T.V screen.
1703. JRRP
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Very skeptical with any possible CV development or development off the SC coast until we see persistent consistency and model support from the ECMWF, or from both the CMC and NOGAPS. Note however, the GFS shows a 2nd impressive (probably invest) wave behind the first.

+1
1704. JRRP
Quoting washingtonian115:
And speaking of which what time frame is this from?

102h and 126h


... see u later

Quoting JRRP:

102h and 126h


... see u later
Thanks.And good night to you to.
1707. JLPR2
Quoting washingtonian115:
That's what makes it so unique.Before the weather channel turned into a boatload of crap/advertising I use to watch them almost everyday for hours(please don't ask why).Every hour the weather would change,and it would keep me glued to the T.V screen.


Agreed.
But... but...
Why? :P
1708. JLPR2
Quoting TampaSpin:
OK..........which one of you is JFV......cause i don't understand what the heck your FBook post means! Can someone help me out here....LOL...UNREAL!






Guess he was referring to this.............OH WELL!


Whaa?

Are you offended? I'm sorry, that wasn't my intention. But why else would you answer the US/Caribbean question with only US locations?

Are you seriously asking if either one of us is JFV, really?
If you really joined in Sept 2 07 that means I joined before you with my original handle JLPR and Baha has been around since 05.

End of discussion.
Hello Africa... Welcome to the machine...
GFS shows 2 systems emerging from Africa... There is another after this one shown...



it will be shown... Eventually


WARFIGHTER GFS 96 HRS OUT CV SYSTEM DEPICTED

Unlike most such model projections, the possible CV storm is only about three days out. That is a very short timespan, so if continuity persists, especially within other models, we could easily see development from this. We should see the incipient wave emerge from west Africa in about 48 hours, give or take.

It is worth noting that if this wave develops into a tropical cyclone, or even nearly, it is likely the harbinger of an active season. This same situation occurred last year with Invest 92L nearly becoming a tropical depression during the middle of June. Before that, it was Bertha in 2008.

The reasons for why this happens isn't exactly clear to me, but it could be an indicator that the MDR is very favorable for development.
1712. JLPR2
Quoting sunlinepr:
Hello Africa... Welcome to the machine...
GFS shows 2 systems emerging from Africa... There is another after this one shown...



it will be shown... Eventually




yeah, the second one would be bad news for us, but it is so far away I feel safe. :D
1713. JLPR2
Quoting KoritheMan:
Unlike most such model projections, the possible CV storm is only about three days out. That is a very short timespan, so if continuity persists, especially within other models, we could easily see development from this. We should see the incipient wave emerge from west Africa in about 48 hours, give or take.

It is worth noting that if this wave develops into a tropical cyclone, or even nearly, it is likely the harbinger of an active season. This same situation occurred last year with Invest 92L nearly becoming a tropical depression during the middle of June. Before that, it was Bertha in 2008.

The reasons for why this happens isn't exactly clear to me, but it could be an indicator that the MDR is very favorable for development.


Yeah, plus the weak SAL outbreaks this should be a rather intense CV season.
Quoting JLPR2:


Yeah, plus the weak SAL outbreaks this should be a rather intense CV season.


Is there a starting and ending date for the CV season, based on Stat. Data? If not (I believe there isn't), that would be a good project...
1715. JLPR2
Quoting sunlinepr:


Is there a starting and ending date for the CV season, based on Stat. Data?


I'm not sure, but I believe the most active time for the CV season is August-September.

That's all I'm sure of. xD
Quoting JLPR2:


I'm not sure, but I believe the most active time for the CV season is August-September.


Well, I hope that I have time enough to pick up the avocados from our tree... Si es que engordan...
1717. JLPR2
Quoting sunlinepr:


Well, I hope that I have time enough to pick up the avocados from our tree... Si es que engordan...


I hope you do, those are great with just about anything and they seems to be a little on the expensive side as of late.
1718. OCF
Looking at the Western U.S. water vapor image (from the NHC version of the satellites), there's something kind of odd looking. There's a rotating band of moisture from northwestern Mexico (not Baja) through Arizona and far eastern California and then Nevada, then eastward over Utah. That's the summer monsoon flow, and it looks pretty normal. You'd think with that circular pattern, it would be rotating around a high, but instead, there's that ULL over Texas smack dab in the center of it, rotating in the opposite direction.

Different layers, I suppose, but it still looks odd.
WROTE MY FIRST BLOG!

for those interested, I talk about the west caribbean monsoonal deal and the east atlantic/west african tropical wave deal
look like tropical wave got some t.storm with it
here we go!!
look at 51 west and 80 west!!
Nice U.S. Coast Guard security camera video of a waterspout forming, then moving across the decks of a Coast Guard cutter at Base Support Unit Miami:

Quoting beell:


Interesting, for sure, Levi. Would be curious to see if a better correlation exists in the western and eastern Pacific since this is where the zonal wind anomaly of the MJO is thought to be most evident.

Or maybe EPAC and Western Caribbean?



This webpage shows tropical storm formation by mojo phase.
205 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TRPCL ATLC EXTENDS FROM NEAR 14N47W
TO 6N53W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE CONTINUES TO PRECEDE A SURGE OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS
AROUND THE WAVE AXIS CONFIRMED BY AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS
FROM 0100 UTC. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE AXIS.


Quoting Grothar:


I was referring to question #2. (Wonder how many will get that?) The models are interesting for the month.


I may be late to this party again, but at least I brought my towel.
Quoting JLPR2:
Hmm looking at the current deep steering layer and considering it stays like that, the NE Caribbean could have a few scares and CA/Mexico would be sitting ducks. The US Gulf Coast seems to be guarded by that big high.



That steering level is for a CAT4-CAT 5 storm. This would be more indicative:
tropical wave near the lesser Antilles reminds me of the morning Felix would be born..well it occurred in the night lol however the wave with a low pressure in its axis looked similar to this one! it is wise we monitor this one much!
nhc says latin american is in for some heavy rain the muddy roads down there are like driving on snow
000
ABNT20 KNHC 111139
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
NOT EXPECTED...SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
1736. P451
Quoting sunlinepr:


Is there a starting and ending date for the CV season, based on Stat. Data? If not (I believe there isn't), that would be a good project...


Starting the last 10 days of July you begin to expect development. It really cranks up around August 20 and shuts down at the end of September.

Development since 1851 (Atlantic) and 1949 (Pacific).





tropical wave looking better this morning!!
1738. P451
Quoting Hurrykane:


That steering level is for a CAT4-CAT 5 storm. This would be more indicative:


Thats a real nice weakness between the two highs. If there were a threat deep in the Atlantic it'd most likely be heading for that weakness.
the butterfly islands got to be the one island in the atlantic that gets hit the most
1741. P451
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
wow!!



Looks like a repeat of several days ago. As of now it looks likely to have a similar outcome as well.
Just curious guys. when do u guys see that gulf ridge weakining?
1736 great animation.
The storms north of 40, seem so odd.
Is that just Gulf Stream eddies?
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
tropical wave looking better this morning!!
Quoting P451:


Starting the last 10 days of July you begin to expect development. It really cranks up around August 20 and shuts down at the end of September.

Development since 1851 (Atlantic) and 1949 (Pacific).





wish you could get it slower you got to be a super mind to pick it up that fast
1745. P451
Past 5 days: Shear:




Past 5 days: SAL:

For lack of anything to stare at. This will probably be gone soon.
1747. P451
Quoting biff4ugo:
1736 great animation.
The storms north of 40, seem so odd.
Is that just Gulf Stream eddies?



They are certainly Gulf Stream related.




Quoting islander101010:
wish you could get it slower you got to be a super mind to pick it up that fast


I can make it display slower. Next time I go to post it.

I took the images from HERE and compiled them.

Quoting P451:


Thats a real nice weakness between the two highs. If there were a threat deep in the Atlantic it'd most likely be heading for that weakness.


Would have to agree with you. My take on it is, we've noticed the waves exiting Africa being pushed southward. If you look at the orientation of the EATL ridge, and with it being stronger, would have a tendency to push a system southward. The system would then most likely move WNW toward the weakness, but if it is inline with the Caribbean, about 12N, then it would most likely catch the second ridge.
1749. SLU
Quoting Tazmanian:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 111139
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
NOT EXPECTED...SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$


Didn't expect them to circle it so quickly
1750. P451
1751. P451
Quoting Hurrykane:


Would have to agree with you. My take on it is, we've noticed the waves exiting Africa being pushed southward. If you look at the orientation of the EATL ridge, and with it being stronger, would have a tendency to push a system southward. The system would then most likely move WNW toward the weakness, but if it is inline with the Caribbean, about 12N, then it would most likely catch the second ridge.


Good point. We're about to get a good look at whether or not that southward suppression continues or not with that new big wave coming off Africa quite a bit further north than the others had been so far.

Quoting Hurrykane:


Would have to agree with you. My take on it is, we've noticed the waves exiting Africa being pushed southward. If you look at the orientation of the EATL ridge, and with it being stronger, would have a tendency to push a system southward. The system would then most likely move WNW toward the weakness, but if it is inline with the Caribbean, about 12N, then it would most likely catch the second ridge.
Any possibility in the SW CAribbean ? I see it has pretty good vorticity and shear is not bad and lowering.
Quoting P451:


I can make it display slower. Next time I go to post it.

I took the images from HERE and compiled them.

thanks love those graphs john h. always relied on them
New CPAC invest:

CP, 90, 2011071106, , BEST, 0, 73N, 1655W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 110, 50, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
Thanks,

I appreciate that.
1750, looking at the average slope, we still have 4+ weeks till hurricane #1.
I'm glad the rain isn't waiting that long. Got soaked yesterday with more than 3". Hope the fires get this too.
1756. pottery
Good Morning, all.
I found that the Dawn this morning was very Yellow and pretty.
Then I realised that the NHC has painted the sky with their yellow crayon....

Now why on Earth would they do that???>>?

Please have it Removed.
When will the Gulf Ridge weaken?
Quoting washingtonian115:
That's what makes it so unique.Before the weather channel turned into a boatload of crap/advertising I use to watch them almost everyday for hours(please don't ask why).Every hour the weather would change,and it would keep me glued to the T.V screen.
When I was a kid my family first got cable in 1996 and I became a compulsive viewer of TWC's tropical update. Hurricane Fran made me obsessed with hurricanes, LOL.
Any thoughts on why the blob in the SW Caribbean didn't really get a mention . Seems to be vertically stacked at all levels, heavy convection firing cold cloud tops, not much shear and shear dropping.
1761. beell
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


This webpage shows tropical storm formation by mojo phase.


Awesome, nrt!
I assume the "Phase" corresponds to "Octant". If so, it appears the MJO is a definitely a factor in the EPAC for phases 1 & 8. Which is kind of what I thought based on the available literature. Would have to include the MJO as a factor in the North American Monsoon of the desert SW also.

A westerly low level wind anomaly is absent from much of the ATL MDR with the exception of western Africa and the western Caribbean/BOC. The West African Monsoon and its attendant low level westerlies could be enhanced quite a bit from the MJO in this part of the world during peak CV season. Same could be said for the MJO's role in the somewhat infrequent intrusion of the EPAC monsoon into our basin.

At the risk of going against strong, almost religious belief by some that the MJO is an important factor in TC genesis in the ATL MDR...I'll stop just short of making that statement for now, lol.

A thanks here for the breakfast food for thought!
1762. FLdewey
Morning wunderpeeps... what's the good word for this fine Monday?
1763. JRRP
1764. beell
Quoting FLdewey:
Morning wunderpeeps... what's the good word for this fine Monday?


blasphemy
1765. FLdewey
Quoting beell:


blasphemy

Sooo... we're still talking global warming? :-p
Quoting beell:


blasphemy


ah...one of my favorites...
Quoting P451:


Good point. We're about to get a good look at whether or not that southward suppression continues or not with that new big wave coming off Africa quite a bit further north than the others had been so far.





Morning All.

Could be our first signal of neutral conditions taking hold of the atmosphere.


Tracks of landfalling hurricanes indicate that East Coast landfalling storms tend to form in the central Atlantic and curve northward just off the Leeward Islands while Florida landfalling storms are more likely to form further west. There are less storms forming in the central Atlantic, where East Coast landfalling hurricanes tend to form, during neutral years than during cold years. This may explain why there are fewer hurricanes making landfall along the East Coast than in Florida during neutral years.

The physical mechanism(s) that cause the decrease in hurricane landfalls along the East Coast during neutral years are not clear at the present time. Some factors that may contribute to this are lower SST’s and increased vertical shear during neutral years in the central Atlantic, resulting in the reduction of tropical cyclone formation where East Coast landfalling hurricanes are most likely to originate. It is possible that the subtropical high is more elongated during neutral years, blocking hurricanes from hitting the East Coast and causing them to track further south towards Florida. Also, stronger easterlies close to the equator during neutral years may be steering storms on a more zonal path, keeping them at lower latitudes and preventing them from reaching the East Coast.
1768. beell
Quoting FLdewey:

Sooo... we're still talking global warming? :-p


Sorry, Dewey. That was probably a little obscure on my part. Talking MJO blasphemy.

Quoting presslord:


ah...one of my favorites...


*looks around, checks for lightning*

Good Morning, Press.
1770. FLdewey
MJO?

Are we going to start talking about the ridge again?

That's okay obscurity is my middle name.

Ship it!


If all that tropical moisture from the Caribbean makes it into the BoC, the shear will not be that bad.
1772. srada
Progress Energy will stand to make considerable dollars tomorrow with AC units blasting..a scorcher here in Eastern NC tomorrow..the news said this morning some inland counties will feel like 110..nothing like a winds of 13 mph blowing nothing but hot air

Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 95. Heat index values as high as 104. West wind between 7 and 13 mph.
Quoting FLdewey:
MJO?

Are we going to start talking about the ridge again?

That's okay obscurity is my middle name.

Ship it!


the whole 'humping the ridge' thing is my territory...Back off!
this ones yellow circle is alittle bigger than the last one
Verification of medium-range MJO forecasts with TIGGE, unfortunately only an abstract.

Excerpt:

The results indicate that ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts) and UKMO (United Kingdom Meteorological Office) generally yield the best performances in predicting the MJO; however, they do not always show similar skills. ECMWF performs well in simulating the maintenance and onset of the MJO in phases 1–4, whereas UKMO and NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) perform well in simulating the maintenance and onset of the MJO in phases 5–8. Thus, the best-performing numerical weather prediction (NWP) centre varies with the phase of the MJO.
1777. Levi32
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


This webpage shows tropical storm formation by mojo phase.


Very cool. Thanks for the link!
1779. FLdewey
Quoting presslord:


the whole 'humping the ridge' thing is my territory...Back off!


Listen, I wasn't going to specify what it was that we were gonna dun be doin to dat ridge.

Maybe they were just going to talk.
1780. beell
Outlook upgrade to Moderate Risk for damaging winds.

click for full Outlook graphics and text
Quoting TaylorSelseth:
When I was a kid my family first got cable in 1996 and I became a compulsive viewer of TWC's tropical update. Hurricane Fran made me obsessed with hurricanes, LOL.
disagree when they got something to talk about they will be there. they got a great crew this yr it for normal people people not like me obsessed with any little clouds during the season


Look for yellow circle in SW caribbean at 2pm est.
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Monday, July 11th, with Video

Nice tidibt. I got a couple of questions.
1: The big texas ridge. do you see it weakining anytime soon in the future?
2: Can you explain why dean and felix in 07 both went into mexico/central america?
Thank You
it appears from latest satelite photos that aLLC istrying to form near 12N 52.5Wwithin the tropical wave approaching the southern windwards.
The tropics are smokin!! yellow cirlce rock but red ones two tone talks!!
Quoting Levi32:


Very cool. Thanks for the link!


There is another webpage, MJO with ENSO. I have not found any text to go with those webpages, so I am not clear what they mean "with ENSO". Nino, Nina or when in either.
1790. Levi32
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


There is another webpage, MJO with ENSO. I have not found any text to go with those webpages, so I am not clear what they mean "with ENSO". Nino, Nina or when in either.


Hmm. That is rather ambiguous. Thanks though.

The name of the page itself may provide a clue:

"MJO Tropcial Cyclone Formation Composite with Interannual Part Retained"

I'm not sure what the "interannual part" refers to.
90W is 08W now.. I have my doubts that 90C, the 1st invest of the CPAC season, has any chance.

08W (click pic to animate)



Dr Masters got quoted in this article encouraging protesters to come to the White House from August 20-Sept. 3 against the proposed Keystone pipe line from Canada oil sands to the Gulf of Mexico.

During a discussion the other day it was pointed out if we don't burn it up someone else will.. This article says other wise. Apparently the move to pipe it to China or across the Pacific was already blocked.
Quoting DestinJeff:


The Password is:

Frijole



Beall said it's 'blasphemy'...ya can't have two words...it's confusing...please communicate with each other and simplify this process...
Quoting Skyepony:
90W is 08W now.. I have my doubts that 90C, the 1st invest of the CPAC season, has any chance.

08W (click pic to animate)



Dr Masters got quoted in this article encouraging protesters to come to the White House from August 20-Sept. 3 against the proposed Keystone pipe line from Canada oil sands to the Gulf of Mexico.

During a discussion the other day it was pointed out if we don't burn it up someone else will.. This article says other wise. Apparently the move to pipe it to China or across the Pacific was already blocked.


Actually the move is to pipe it to Prince Rupert or Kitimat, and ship it to China, which I believe is the plan they will go with.
90C from the Indian Scatterometer


Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


There is another webpage, MJO with ENSO. I have not found any text to go with those webpages, so I am not clear what they mean "with ENSO". Nino, Nina or when in either.


I went to this one first & scrolled over all the months, then the one that doesn't mention ENSO & all the months were highlighted like i'd already been there. They the same?
Quoting Skyepony:
90W is 08W now.. I have my doubts that 90C, the 1st invest of the CPAC season, has any chance.

08W (click pic to animate)



Dr Masters got quoted in this article encouraging protesters to come to the White House from August 20-Sept. 3 against the proposed Keystone pipe line from Canada oil sands to the Gulf of Mexico.

During a discussion the other day it was pointed out if we don't burn it up someone else will.. This article says other wise. Apparently the move to pipe it to China or across the Pacific was already blocked.


Hi Skye. CPC today in their weekly update has nino 3.4 down to -0.1C from 0.1C that was last week. In general,the Pacific cooled a tad,even the 1-2 area went down.

Link
Quoting DestinJeff:
Has anybody seen Ike on hear?


A bit over the weekend.
Quoting Skyepony:


I went to this one first & scrolled over all the months, then the one that doesn't mention ENSO & all the months were highlighted like i'd already been there. They the same?


No, different storm counts between the two for the same month.
1802. SQUAWK
Quoting DestinJeff:
Has anybody seen Ike on hear?


I think it rained on him and I was waiting for him to report but haven't seen him. Unlike him to miss a rain event.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


No, different storm counts between the two for the same month.


I see now. That could use some more text..

Thanks for the Indian Scatterometer, I've looked for that here & there since they launched it.



Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Hi Skye. CPC today in their weekly update has nino 3.4 down to -0.1C from 0.1C that was last week. In general,the Pacific cooled a tad,even the 1-2 area went down.

Link


It never moves is a straight line up or down for long. The general trend is still there.

This warming should be short lived. ESPI is up to -.33. There is still that lag though. I don't expect substantial cooling til the cool streak moving along the equator though the Atlantic works it's way over South America.

Orca~ you got a link or something? I haven't seen anything like that about Alberta.
1806. Buhdog
Greetings from Cape Coral fl....Rain last night from ex 96l's tail last night! dare i say i am missing the sun a little?
Hot & humid conditions in central US a very dangerous situation. Heat index ~115 degrees
National Weather Hazards
About to get hit with a lovely bow-echo, see you on the other side...
Good morning everyone.

I wouldn't be so quick to write this tropical wave off, even if it does appear to be weakening. It has a small vort. max, and it has a well-defined inverted V-signature. Even if it won't develop in the next few days, it will need to be watched as it enters the Western Caribbean.



We should have a similar set-up to Arlene in a few days from now, but I'm not so sure we'll get "Bret" this time. When we were watching for Arlene, the Atlantic basin favored lowering pressures, while the Pacific didn't really. This time, the Pacific favors lowering pressures, more than the Atlantic. Thus, instead of the Atlantic getting "Bret", I think the Eastern Pacific will get Dora.



Lastly, there is a strong tropical wave over western Africa, one of the most well-defined so far this season, if not the most well-defined one. This will need to be watched very closely as it exits Africa over the next 2-3 days, as the GFS is beginning to show an area of low pressure develop with the system, a sign that the Cape Verde season is not too far behind. One thing to note, if we get a system in July, which I believe we will (2), and it forms east of 77W and south of 25N, we will likely have at least an average season.
wow!! lets hope not!!
Nasty storms are gonna hits Cincinnati today. Northern Ohio and Michigan are already getting hit.
I'm on the Anticyclonic side of the derecho, will see what happens.
Orka~ It's odd, the pro oil sites say China will eventually get a pipeline or is eyeing a pipeline, seeing articles back to 2005. In the antipipeline camp it is claimed that the natives have stopped any hope China has of putting a pipe west to the Pacific for China. I'd rather not have the air pollution killing Americans & move on into a new era of clean power. China is buying resources across the globe..

Since like '07, the oil companies are decimating the wild horse herds out west over this pipeline while BLM has turned it's back. Recently I went to see the newest or if it had ended & like before the articles are full of Trojans trying to attack my PC.