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Arctic Sea Ice Goes Far Beyond Record Low Extent for May

By: Bob Henson 4:01 PM GMT on May 20, 2016

The sea ice that coats the Arctic Ocean each winter and erodes each summer is going through its most depleted spring since modern observing began. The Danish Meteorological Institute reported the lowest sea ice extent of any April in the Arctic’s 38-year-long satellite record. As luck would have it, the primary satellite sensor used by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) for extent measurement began producing spurious data in April. A similar microwave imager from another satellite is now in the process of being intercalibrated to ensure consistency of the long-term record. Even with that caveat, it’s clear that the unusually rapid ice loss from April is steaming ahead. NSIDC’s Mark Serreze confirmed in an email that the 2016 Arctic sea ice extent is indeed at record-low levels for May, as implied by Figures 1 and 2. Different agencies use different algorithms to measure sea ice extent, but the slight variations that result do not affect the big picture.


Figure 1. Extent of Arctic sea ice for each year since 1979. The 2016 values in recent weeks through May 18 are shown as a dashed red line, denoting the provisional state of the data for the last few weeks. NSIDC cautions that “quantitative comparisons with other data should not be done at this time.” Image credit: NSIDC Charctic Interactive Sea Ice Graph.


Figure 2. Arctic sea ice extent for the past five years as tracked by the Danish Meteorological Institute. The 1979-2000 average is depicted as a gray line; the gray shading denotes one standard deviation from that average. Image credit: Danish Meteorological Institute.

This year’s hasty ice retreat has been fueled by incredibly mild temperatures across the Arctic during much of the winter and spring--a byproduct of El Niño atop longer-term warming from human-produced greenhouse gases. At Barrow, Alaska, every day since January 1 has been above average except for January 22, February 6, and a stretch from March 28 to April 3. Alaska’s Climate Division 1, which covers the North Slope, is having its warmest year to date by far (see Figure 3), with the January-to-April average of 2.7°F beating the previous record (–1.4°F, from 2014) by an eye-popping 4.1°F. Another red-letter data point: snow cover disappeared from the open tundra at the NOAA Barrow Observatory on May 13. Assuming that no snow cover returns this spring--an increasingly good bet--this is the earliest melt-out date by far in 74 years of recordkeeping at the Barrow lab, beating out May 24, 2002. Conditions have also been exceptionally mild on the other side of the Arctic. The town of Longyearbyen in Svalbard, Norway--the northermost civilian community on the planet--has had only one below-average day in 2016 thus far (see Figure 4).


Figure 3. Average January-through-April temperatures from 1925 to 2016 for Alaska’s Climate Division 1, covering the North Slope (which includes the Arctic Ocean coastline). Image credit: NOAA/NCEI.


Figure 4. Daily temperatures (red and blue traces) from April 2015 to April 2016 for Svalbard Airport, Norway. The black line shows normal (average) temperatures for each day. The smoothed average for Svalbard has been above normal for the entire 12-month period. Only one day in 2016 has fallen below average (denoted when the midpoint of a temperature bar for a given day is located below the solid black line]. Image credit: Norwegian Meteorological Institute.

Mild readings still on tap across the Arctic
Recent runs of the ECMWF and GFS models maintain high pressure over the central and western Arctic for the next 1 to 2 weeks. This implies plenty of sunlight over large parts of the ice pack, which will facilitate ice loss. The 00Z Friday run of the GFS model keeps warmer-than-average surface temperatures across the entire Arctic Ocean throughout the extended range. At times, the warmth will extend across large parts of boreal Siberia, Alaska, and Canada, which will keep land-based snow melting quickly. Northern rivers are already feeding large volumes of relatively mild water into the Arctic ahead of usual. April’s snow cover extent across the Northern Hemisphere was the lowest in 50 years of recordkeeping, according to the Rutgers University Global Snow Lab.

Another downside of premature snow cover loss is the potential for early-season wildfire across the far north. A prime example is Canada’s disastrous Fort McMurray fire, which exploded in early May as record heat swept over a snowless landscape. Although the fire still surrounds the city, some 85 to 90 percent of Fort McMurray’s structures were saved, and residents may be able to return beginning in early June. Media interest in the event has waned in recent days, but the fire continues to rage, with a new burst of growth this week. On Thursday, the fire covered some 1.2 million acres--twice the size of Rhode Island--and was beginning to extend into Saskatchewan. As noted by blogger Robert Scribbler, this fire already has spanned more area than all of Alberta’s fires in 2015 combined. Soot from the Fort McMurray fire, and from major wildfires burning across parts of Siberia, could exacerbate the loss of sea ice by falling atop the ice and darkening the surface, thus increasing its ability to absorb sunlight.


Figure 5. A group trying to rescue animals from Fort McMurray wait at road block on Highway 63 near as smoke rises from a forest fire near Fort McMurray, Alberta on May 6, 2016. Canadian police led convoys of cars through the burning ghost town of Fort McMurray Friday in a risky operation to get people to safety far to the south. Image credit: Cole Burston/AFP/Getty Images.


Figure 6. Satellite imagery showing the extent of sea ice on September 11, 2015, the date of the year’s minimum extent. The minimum of 4.41 million square kilometers was about 700,000 sq km below the 1981-2010 average, shown here as a gold line. Image credit: NASA Goddard Scientific Visualization Studio.

Record low sea ice extent this summer? Too soon to tell
Strange as it seems, there is no guarantee that this spring’s headlong melt will lead to the lowest Arctic sea ice minimum extent on record. Even with the unprecedented head start, more than two-thirds of the melting in a typical year has yet to occur. The final outcome of the melt season will hinge largely on the weather and the circulation patterns that unfold over the next three months or so--especially the amount of sunshine in June and July and the presence of winds and ocean currents that can shove thick, older ice toward lower latitudes. In 2012, the ice extent was just slightly below average in early June, but rapid melt later that month helped push the ice extent to its lowest value on record: 3.41 million square kilometers.

Some of the world’s top sea ice watchers will soon be putting their skills to work predicting the outcome of this year’s summer melt. A community forecasting project that began in 2008 has been operating as the Sea Ice Prediction Network since 2013. Each year SIPN compiles and releases outlooks from all interested parties who dare to predict the dates of ice-free conditions. Last year’s three monthly outlooks, issued in June, July, and August, included a total of 105 submissions employing various types of prediction (e.g., statistical techniques and modeling-based approaches). The forecasts issued in August 2015 spanned a vast range, from 0.98 to 5.6 sq km. The average of the August predictions--4.8 million sq km--was closer to the mark, but it still came in higher than the observed minimum of 4.41 sq km observed on September 11.

Sea ice prediction remains an embryonic science, and the SIPN website is an excellent place to follow that science as it evolves in real time. SIPN will be soliciting contributions several weeks ahead of its June, July, and August reports; here’s a tentative schedule.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Bob Henson

Extreme Weather Arctic Sea Ice

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Bob. You have a great weekend too...
Thanks for the update Mr. Henson.
Those of us who knew this was going to be a "different" event than the past 3-4 here..was when the NWS 4 pm wording became concerned with the radar presentation and other factors.

It was very late June early July like for the experienced.

That TVS was very close to us round 10:40pm


and the good news is!
Thanks Mr. Henson!
Great post, Mr. Henson.

But: Svalbard is a territory of Norway. The name of the town is most likely Longyearbyen (biggest settlement on the archipelago).
From the previous blog

Quoting 375. daddyjames:

Pretty cool image of the aftermath of a lightning strike in Texas (from the TWC).
It happened overnight, so no one was in any danger.


I know things can evolve over time, but when Greg Forbes is already posting TORCON numbers like these so early and over such a period of time, you tend to get a little nervous:







Thanks for the new Post Mr. Henson...
Quoting 4. Patrap:

Those of us who knew this was going to be a "different" event than the past 3-4 here..was when the NWS 4 pm wording became concerned with the radar presentation and other factors.

It was very late June early July like for the experienced.

That TVS was very close to us round 10:40pm




Pat the light show was crazy last night! I never seen that much lightning in awhile. Thank God we never lost power
Indeed bigwess, it was a adrenaline pumper for a spell there fo sho'
Thank You for that great post and the comparative chart is awesome; you can clearly see the lowest levels, as they should be, in the summer months (bottoming out in September) with the ice recovery period starting again in Fall and Winter as things cool down again; March and April of 2016 is clearly below the recent averages due to the mild temps.

Not sure of the research in this area but given the documented longer term Arctic warming issues, and current research on jet stream fluctuation issues (with the polar jet at its fastest-circular in the Winter due to the temp differentials between the Northern and Mid-Latitudes and wavier in the Summer or during mild Winters) the combination of the current El Nino and those recent warm air inflows due this past mild-Winter makes perfect sense in terms of this year. However, in terms of the longer-term Arctic warming issues, it is quite possible-probable that Co2 trapped around the polar regions when the jet closes off in the Winter, has contributed to the long term warming trend over the past few decades.
http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/index.html

HighlightsAir temperatures in all seasons between October 2014 and September 2015 exceeded 3°C above average over broad areas of the Arctic, while the annual average air temperature (+1.3°) over land was the highest since 1900.
Quoting 7. elioe:

Great post, Mr. Henson.

But: Svalbard is a territory of Norway. The name of the town is most likely Longyearbyen (biggest settlement on the archipelago).


Fixed! Thanks for the catch.
Quoting 10. daddyjames:

I know things can evolve over time, but when Greg Forbes is already posting TORCON numbers like these so early and over such a period of time, you tend to get a little nervous:










Indeed, next week looks like a pretty classic late-May pattern for Great Plains severe weather. We will be keeping tabs on it!
Quoting 16. BobHenson:



Fixed! Thanks for the catch.


Grothar is gonna snap over this maybe.

I was serving with Him in Tromso,Norway in 84'. He is stickler for Norwegian etiquette and syntax..

: )
19. SLU
Here we go!!

.ATLC 24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL WAVE S OF 09N ALONG 36W MOVING W
15 KT. S OF 08N E OF 37W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL WAVE S OF 10N ALONG 41W. S OF 09N
BETWEEN 40W AND 42W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
And the dense forests and plants in Alaska and Canada (or other near Arctic regions) do not extend into the higher latitudes-actual polar region where the iciest regions/glaciers are located. As such, that region does not get the benefit of much Co2 reduction from plants and vegetation every spring and summer that we usually see in the lower latitudes. And when you add permafrost melt into the mix, that releases methane, there does not appear to be an end in sight to the current warming trend in the Arctic.
21. SLU
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi · 6h6 hours ago  Pennsylvania, USA

Global temp drops dramatically for May, still likely record for month as variance not as great as previous months
Another circular spin (like yesterday afternoon) showing up on the radar loops for the complex in the Northern Gulf; another wannabe system hampered by too much sheer to develop:


Southeast sector loop
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
ST. JOHNS COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...
NORTHEASTERN PUTNAM COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...
CLAY COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...
DUVAL COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 130 PM EDT

* AT 1245 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF MAXVILLE TO NEAR BARDIN...MOVING
NORTHEAST NEAR 40 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. REPORTS OF TREES DOWN IN NORTHEAST
FLORIDA.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JACKSONVILLE...SAINT AUGUSTINE...PALATKA...ORANGE PARK...GREEN COVE
SPRINGS...HASTINGS...JACKSONVILLE INTERNATIONAL ARPT...UNF...EAST
PALATKA...MIDDLEBURG...PONTE VEDRA BEACH...FRUIT COVE...MANDARIN...
ARLINGTON...NEPTUNE BEACH...WORLD GOLF VILLAGE...SAINT AUGUSTINE
BEACH...ORTEGA...CRAIG FIELD AND GEORGE`S LAKE.

Quoting BobHenson:
At Barrow, Alaska, every day since January 1 has been above average except for January 22, February 6, and a stretch from March 28 to April 3
Yet some of those in AGW/CC denial - or taken in by FF industry propaganda - will often say things like say "See! Not everyday was above average, and that "proves" that global warming is a lie."

While it boggles the mind to see such ignorance in the comments here and at denialist blogs on the internet, I appreciate the reasoned and rational approach of you, Jeff, and the other featured WU bloggers. While others are pronouncing that a "blue-water event" is coming to the Arctic Ocean this year, you take the rational and objective approach that it is to early to tell if we will have record low extent this year, let alone a melt-out and blue water event.

Thanks, Bob, for your excellent contributions to discussions of both weather and climate issues.
Quoting 18. Patrap:



I would like to visit Tromsö someday. I'm really embarrased, how lazy I've been to travel. I haven't ever even been to the northern part of my country. I have visited Sweden and Estonia, but not Russia or Norway. Tromsö is less than 1000 km away. And there would be flights to Svalbard...
Jedkins is one of the Florida sea breeze-convection experts around here (and FSU Met Student); wondering on his take as to whether the squall line that has developed on the Eastern side of North Florida is related to the interaction of the front coming across from the Gulf interacting with the warm Atlantic sea breeze flowing in from the East.  
Quoting 27. weathermanwannabe:

Jedkins is one of the Florida sea breeze-convection experts around here (and FSU Met Student); wondering on his take as to whether the squall line that has developed on the Eastern side of North Florida is related to the interaction of the front coming across from the Gulf interacting with the warm Atlantic sea breeze flowing in from the East. %uFFFD


Did the line of storms trick the NWS? The NWS was calling for the storms to weaken as they approached the east coast.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1020 AM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016

.UPDATE...
A linear shaped MCS with a squall line on its leading edge raced
across the Florida panhandle early this morning. This system is
now losing its forward momentum and weakening rapidly as it bumps
into the western periphery of a mid level ridge and encounters
much drier mid level air. This is evidenced by satellite which has
shown steady cloud top warming over the past hour or two. Out
ahead of this system across our area, areas of fog has lifted into
a low stratus deck for most locations north of a line from
Gainesville to St Augustine. This will delay the onset of heating
in these areas. But for locations along the I-75 corridor where
some clearing has already allowed temps to rebound to around 80
degrees, resulting in cape values already in excess of 1500 J/KG,
isolated strong storms will be possible as the leading edge of
the aforementioned MCS propagates towards those areas this
morning.

Going forward through the rest of the day, the forecast is
extremely difficult. The question becomes how much will the
cloud shield from the MCS limit heating and will it just delay the
heating or limit it for the entire day. These are huge questions
regarding how convection will ultimately evolve through the day
across our area. The thicker cloud cover and earlier onset of
precip (possibly in the form of stratiform rain for many
locations) could significantly impact the overall forecast today.
Given the latest trends, we will increase cloud cover and lower
temps a few degrees for most areas north of Gainesville and St.
Augustine. This will help lower the severe threat for these areas,
but as already mentioned, a few isolated strong to severe storms
will be possible across our southern zones as a complex of
thunderstorms moves through that area through early this
afternoon.
Take note of the developing cumulus clouds moving from SW to NE out in front of the squall line down across central Fl.
Quoting 26. elioe:



I would like to visit Tromsö someday. I'm really embarrased, how lazy I've been to travel. I haven't ever even been to the northern part of my country. I have visited Sweden and Estonia, but not Russia or Norway. Tromsö is less than 1000 km away. And there would be flights to Svalbard...

I can't believe this.
Pack some things and go tomorrow!
I'm from Holland but been there several times, will be there in August again, and will do another recon there because I might want to emigrate. To Tromsö. Perhaps next year. I will set up an airco importing firm and ready a patch for growing coffee (to be sold to Friele) after which I will be a billionaire Gates would say sir to.
Quoting 26. elioe:



I would like to visit Tromsö someday. I'm really embarrased, how lazy I've been to travel. I haven't ever even been to the northern part of my country. I have visited Sweden and Estonia, but not Russia or Norway. Tromsö is less than 1000 km away. And there would be flights to Svalbard...


Tromso was my first taste of the Arctic circle at age 24. Being from deep south,it was enlightening at the time.



Quoting 31. cRRKampen:


I can't believe this.
Pack some things and go tomorrow!
I'm from Holland but been there several times, will be there in August again, and will do another recon there because I might want to emigrate. To Troms%uFFFD. Perhaps next year. I will set up an airco importing firm and ready a patch for growing coffee (to be sold to Friele) after which I will be a billionaire Gates would say sir to.


Boone N.C. was our first pic, but now Tromso is seeming more and more a better reality.

Having traded and winter trained with laplanders in 84, its a wunderful place,and the northern lights are like a beignet.

I loathe Summer in NOLA.

Quoting 24. Xulonn:

Yet some of those in AGW/CC denial - or taken in by FF industry propaganda - will often say things like say "See! Not everyday was above average, and that "proves" that global warming is a lie."

While it boggles the mind to see such ignorance in the comments here and at denialist blogs on the internet, I appreciate the reasoned and ration approach of you, Jeff, and the other featured WU bloggers. While others are pronouncing that a "blue-water event" is coming to the Arctic Ocean this year, you take the rational and objective approach that it is to early to tell if we will have record low extent this year, let alone a melt-out and blue water event.

Thanks, Bob, for your excellent contributions to discussions of both weather and climate issues.


I've mentioned in a couple of the recent blogs about how unlikely it is for a "blue water" event to occur this year. Even with ideal conditions there's still too much ice for that to happen. It would take an extraordinary series of events to reach "ice-free" this year.

Could it happen? Yes. Will it happen? Unlikely. A record minimum is far more likely to occur. However as Dr. Masters points out, that greatly depends on the conditions during peak insolation. We've had other years rocket out of the gate, only to come to be saved by cloud cover during late June.

Regardless, this takes away from the main point which is the arctic is warming, and much faster than the rest of the globe. This year may not end up being ice free, but in the very near future it will be.
CARIBBEAN SEA...

The surface ridge that dominates the central and E Atlantic
extends S-SW across the northern Caribbean, thus generating a
tight pressure gradient that support fresh to near gale force
winds S of 16N between 70W and 78W, including the Gulf of
Venezuela. To the S, The proximity of the EPAC Monsoon Trough is
supporting scattered moderate convection S of 10N between 80W
and 84W. Moderate trades prevail across the reminder of the
basin as noted in scatterometer data. A similar weather pattern
will prevail during the next "24 months"

I cant remember the last time we have gone this long this late in the year virtually cloud free.....
my grass which receives irrigation is starting to turn brown....
anyone in Cayman have any concerns about our water table?
I know we ro the deep wells but soon that will be so saline we may have to start desal again
Quoting 19. SLU:

Here we go!!

.ATLC 24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL WAVE S OF 09N ALONG 36W MOVING W
15 KT. S OF 08N E OF 37W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL WAVE S OF 10N ALONG 41W. S OF 09N
BETWEEN 40W AND 42W NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
What's happening?
Quoting 37. washingtonian115:

What's happening?
First Twave.
Quoting 31. cRRKampen:

Pack some things and go tomorrow!


Yes, I'll pack some things, grab my bicycle, and be there in 8 days or so, LOL.

Currently bus+plane Tampere-Helsinki-Oslo-Tromsö would be at least 140€. Between June and August, there is a bus service between Northern Finland and Norway, travelling that route would be only 120 €. And I don't have a car or driving license. Perhaps I'll try to get my friend to be my driver, when he has vacation during September, the gasoline would likely cost less than 100 €.

Quoting 33. Patrap:



Having traded and winter trained with laplanders in 84 [...]


Now YOU'RE the one breaching the etiquette :) :)
There are lots of tropical waves out there at the moment but too far South yet for coreolis to take effect; a good sign for a potentially very active Cape Verde season but in the meantime, the Caribbean needs rain so a best case scenario is for these early ones to bring some needed rain to the lower Antilles (like the sheared one entering the Southern Caribbean now):


41. SLU
Quoting 37. washingtonian115:

What's happening?


The wave train has taken off.
dust going to knock on their butt...we have had no dust for weeks which was a great window for rain under different circumstances....:(
Quoting 40. weathermanwannabe:

There are lots of tropical waves out there at the moment but too far South yet for coreolis to take effect; a good sign for a potentially very active Cape Verde season but in the meantime, the Caribbean needs rain so a best case scenario is for these early ones to bring some needed rain to the lower Antilles (like the sheared one entering the Southern Caribbean now):



I stand corrected per the comment below; one T-wave but an increasingly active, and healthy looking, Central Atlantic ITCZ............................ :)
you can clearly see where the dust is inhibiting that wave.....
Quoting 40. weathermanwannabe:

There are lots of tropical waves out there at the moment but too far South yet for coreolis to take effect; a good sign for a potentially very active Cape Verde season but in the meantime, the Caribbean needs rain so a best case scenario is for these early ones to bring some needed rain to the lower Antilles (like the sheared one entering the Southern Caribbean now):



Quoting 44. 19N81W:

you can clearly see where the dust is inhibiting that wave.....




Yup; but it makes for such pretty Caribbean sunsets..........................
we would go without the sunsets for some relief thats for sure...
Quoting 45. weathermanwannabe:




Yup; but it makes for such pretty Caribbean sunsets..........................
Quoting 47. 19N81W:

we would go without the sunsets for some relief thats for sure...



Your neck of the woods may have to wait until June and August for some rain relief:




Quoting 31. cRRKampen:


I can't believe this.
Pack some things and go tomorrow!
I'm from Holland but been there several times, will be there in August again, and will do another recon there because I might want to emigrate. To Tromsö. Perhaps next year. I will set up an airco importing firm and ready a patch for growing coffee (to be sold to Friele) after which I will be a billionaire Gates would say sir to.


Even the most extreme AGW scenarios don't have sufficient warmth for coffee in Trosmo.

(I am trying it in pots alongside my citrus in DC.. got plants last month)
ya looks that way
Quoting 49. weathermanwannabe:



Your neck of the woods may have to wait until June and August for some rain relief:





Quoting 33. Patrap:



Boone N.C. was our first pic, but now Tromso is seeming more and more a better reality.

Having traded and winter trained with laplanders in 84, its a wunderful place,and the northern lights are like a beignet.

I loathe Summer in NOLA.




A thousand pluses. I loathe the comparatively short DC metro summers here which aren't nearly as soul sucking, mind destroying, and enervating as what you have to deal with down there!
Arctic sea ice is a measurable symptom of AGW, great measuring stick to get people's attention. Arctic as a whole is meting, it's not reversible, and it's getting faster, and will continue to roll downhill. It's been code red and we talk code red, and give the green light to continued fossil fuel usage, with no slow down in sight, as we barrel towards 9 billion people by 2040/2050. These vastly poor will have major energy needs. Food production must double by then. Best time we get real serious. We're no where close.
11 days a way too june 1st
It looks like the area of development is setting up just to my east and the S.W. flow off the GOM is going to keep the S.W. coast clear for now.

But I'm hoping the line decides to back build into my area, but I'm not all that confident. East coast of Florida is going to get a lot of action today.

Quoting 32. Patrap:



Tromso was my first taste of the Arctic circle at age 24. Being from deep south,it was enlightening at the time.






That place looks familiar for some reason. :)
Quoting 34. Xyrus2000:



I've mentioned in a couple of the recent blogs about how unlikely it is for a "blue water" event to occur this year. Even with ideal conditions there's still too much ice for that to happen. It would take an extraordinary series of events to reach "ice-free" this year.

Could it happen? Yes. Will it happen? Unlikely. A record minimum is far more likely to occur. However as Dr. Masters points out, that greatly depends on the conditions during peak insolation. We've had other years rocket out of the gate, only to come to be saved by cloud cover during late June.

Regardless, this takes away from the main point which is the arctic is warming, and much faster than the rest of the globe. This year may not end up being ice free, but in the very near future it will be.


eighteen years ago I proposed the Santa Swimming pool where people picked the day that the 89N and poleward latitude circle would be completely ice free. I expected this to occur before my retirement thirty years hence (now twelve years or so if I retire at 70) I still expect it to occur before that date.

Ice free Arctic Ocean will occur much later because fast ice on the Canadian side will persist in a strip along that coast decades after the rest melts out annually every summer making the straight north, single longitude line passage over the pole a reality.

(No one took me up on it.)
Quoting 22. weathermanwannabe:

Another circular spin (like yesterday afternoon) showing up on the radar loops for the complex in the Northern Gulf; another wannabe system hampered by too much sheer to develop:



No complaints here!
There has been no significant warming since 1997, errr, I mean 2016!
Weak low east of Florida Penninsula shows up in ECMWF 12z run at 192 hours and it moves westnorthwest torwards Jacksonville We shall see if it pans out.

Quoting 60. Tropicsweatherpr:

Weak low east of Florida Penninsula shows up in ECMWF 12z run at 192 hours and it moves westnorthwest torwards Jacksonville We shall see if it pans out.

The GFS also shows a T.S in that area around that time.We could have Bonnie before months end.
Quoting 60. Tropicsweatherpr:

Weak low east of Florida Penninsula shows up in ECMWF 12z run at 192 hours and it moves westnorthwest torwards Jacksonville We shall see if it pans out.




But what I do see is a change in the overall setup that would be more favorable for tropical development somewhere down the line. Bermuda High is trying to get established with a more easterly/southeasterly flow.

That will allow a more typical "rainy/wet" season pattern to setup for my area.

These systems developing across Texas and racing across the Gulf Coast to Florida are not what we typically see during the hurricane season (summer type pattern).
What do you see?

Everyone have a great and safe weather weekend; weather deteriorating again West of Tallahassee and I got the go-ahead to go home early. See Yall next week.
Quoting 63. NoobDave:

What do you see?




A Big RED Square...
As most of the models are now showing low pressure near the Bahamas in the day 8-9 window, they're also showing a big drop in wind shear across that area as well as the Caribbean. Caribbean and Gulf wind shear has been very high, bearing all the fingerprints of El Nino, which despite being in decline has been ruling the weather patterns in that region. I've watched the models closely for a couple weeks, and they've been very persistent in showing that shear decreasing, but always around day 10 or further out. They're still doing so, but now the timeline is slowly moving up. I didn't buy the initial "fakes", but now I'm starting to see signs that we will start to transition to a more normal pattern as El Nino loses its grip. It's typical of the models to rush the transition. As Sflroidacat5 put it, post 62, it's basically just a transition to a more normal wet season pattern for Florida and the Caribbean. Pretty much on cue given the calendar. And of course, as the summer pattern sets in the tropical cyclone risk increases, especially if wind shear close to home diminishes and stays near to below average for most of the season, which I think it will. I'm still not really on the active season bandwagon, but I think it will at least be a more "traditional" season in that places like the Caribbean won't be so unusually hostile as they've been recently.
we will see how it pans out but if the models just keep pushng the days back and back past the original time that it was supposed to have backed off then perhaps the el nino pattern is way more dug in than expected. I can tell you with 100% certainty there is nothing normal about this May in the Caymans....not even day time showers....i really need a change for June...but I think it will take something significant to shift the pattern....
Quoting 66. MAweatherboy1:

As most of the models are now showing low pressure near the Bahamas in the day 8-9 window, they're also showing a big drop in wind shear across that area as well as the Caribbean. Caribbean and Gulf wind shear has been very high, bearing all the fingerprints of El Nino, which despite being in decline has been ruling the weather patterns in that region. I've watched the models closely for a couple weeks, and they've been very persistent in showing that shear decreasing, but always around day 10 or further out. They're still doing so, but now the timeline is slowly moving up. I didn't buy the initial "fakes", but now I'm starting to see signs that we will start to transition to a more normal pattern as El Nino loses its grip. It's typical of the models to rush the transition. As Sflroidacat5 put it, post 62, it's basically just a transition to a more normal wet season pattern for Florida and the Caribbean. Pretty much on cue given the calendar. And of course, as the summer pattern sets in the tropical cyclone risk increases, especially if wind shear close to home diminishes and stays near to below average for most of the season, which I think it will. I'm still not really on the active season bandwagon, but I think it will at least be a more "traditional" season in that places like the Caribbean won't be so unusually hostile as they've been recently.
Quoting 67. 19N81W:

we will see how it pans out but if the models just keep pushng the days back and back past the original time that it was supposed to have backed off then perhaps the el nino pattern is way more dug in than expected. I can tell you with 100% certainty there is nothing normal about this May in the Caymans....not even day time showers....i really need a change for June...but I think it will take something significant to shift the pattern....

It takes the atmosphere sometime to catch up to what is happening in the oceans.The same thing happened in 2010.
The ECMWF and its ensembles have been bouncing around the idea of development in the Caribbean and Gulf in the extended range. I've favored the GFS solution of potential development north of the Greater Antilles for the past few days, so it's nice to see ECMWF cave for at least one run and give us temporary consensus. Wind shear forecasts indicate the upper-level environment might be more conducive near and north of the Bahamas as opposed to farther south, and high pressure across the NW Atlantic/NE USA/SE Canada region favors lower heights/pressures off the SE coastline.
still thinking there is going to be sheared trough from the bahamas down to nicaraqua. action should pick up in the nw carib. mid week
Earlier today I was driving and witnessed something I'd never seen before.. A single arc of lightning swung from very high up in the storm clouds down to the ground. It then pulsed three times, paused and pulsed two more times.. anyone else witness something like that? I wish I had it on video :/
And the parade begins as we got the first Tropical Waves of 2016 at surface analysis.

73. SLU
Quoting 72. Tropicsweatherpr:

And the parade begins as we got the first Tropical Waves of 2016 at surface analysis.




Yippee!
Quoting 57. georgevandenberghe:



eighteen years ago I proposed the Santa Swimming pool where people picked the day that the 89N and poleward latitude circle would be completely ice free. I expected this to occur before my retirement thirty years hence (now twelve years or so if I retire at 70) I still expect it to occur before that date.

Ice free Arctic Ocean will occur much later because fast ice on the Canadian side will persist in a strip along that coast decades after the rest melts out annually every summer making the straight north, single longitude line passage over the pole a reality.

(No one took me up on it.)


September 7th 2030. Mark it down!
Wxrisk.com
3 hrs ·
**NOTFICATION ** HERE COMES THE WARMTH !! Midday 12z FRI GFS shows SIGNIFICANT warm lots of sun some humidity for all 4 days of long holiday weekend
MAX TEMPS 85-90 for Thurs May 26 Friday May 27 Saturday May 28 Sunday May 29 Monday May 30... for ALL of MD DEL VA MD WVA as well as TN KY
Good evening! New site showing hazards to certain regions is online since yesterday. As much as I can see, there is no threat of a tropical cyclone for Germany, but volcanic hazards aren't out of question (which is true ;-)

About ThinkHazard!
ThinkHazard! is a new web-based tool enabling non-specialists to consider the impacts of disasters on new development projects. Users of ThinkHazard! can quickly and robustly assess the level of river flood, earthquake, drought, cyclone, coastal flood, tsunami, volcano, and landslide hazard within their project area to assist with project planning and design.
ThinkHazard! is a simple flagging system to highlight the hazards present in a project area. As such, a user is only required to enter their project location - national, provincial or district name. The results interface shows a user whether they require high, medium or low awareness of each hazard when planning their project.
ThinkHazard! also provides recommendations and guidance on how to reduce the risk from each hazard within the project area, and provides links to additional resources such as country risk assessments, best practice guidance, additional websites. ThinkHazard! also highlights how each hazard may change in the future as a result of climate change.



ThinkHazard! holds local data for the countries displayed in this map. Global data is available for river flood, earthquake, cyclone, water scarcity, and landslide. The tool code is open source, to encourage other users to adapt the tool to their needs. The code can be found on Github. Current instance version is 1.3.2 .

BTW, as Dave Petley says in his famous landslide blog, he contributed some work to show the hazards of landslides (and his blog also provides some infos about that deadly landslide in Sri Lanka some days ago).
Quoting 75. washingtonian115:

Wxrisk.com
3 hrs ·
**NOTFICATION ** HERE COMES THE WARMTH !! Midday 12z FRI GFS shows SIGNIFICANT warm lots of sun some humidity for all 4 days of long holiday weekend
MAX TEMPS 85-90 for Thurs May 26 Friday May 27 Saturday May 28 Sunday May 29 Monday May 30... for ALL of MD DEL VA MD WVA as well as TN KY


The rule of thumb that Memorial day always has lousy weather, seems to have broken down in the 21'st century :-)

Could use the warmth!

Chill has put my garden WAY behind most mid May periods esp. this decade after a long run of warm Mays.
It still looks pretty shredded and beat up from all of the hail 5/2.
The week of severe weather as forecast by models over the past two weeks is almost here. A threat for severe weather will exist across most of the Plains every day this week. The combination of adequate (but not extreme) shear as well as extreme CAPE and great moisture return means significant severe weather will also be possible. No day stands out as high risk material to me at this point, but the aforementioned combination means some interesting and dangerous things may play out over the next 7 days.


Yay!!!! We now have the first two official tropical waves of the season
IMO we had our first few waves few days ago
Cyclone Roanu: Bangladesh moves 2 million people from coast
Coastal districts expected to be hit by storm surge on Saturday, following heavy rains and landslides in Sri Lanka this week
Reuters in Dhaka, Friday 20 May 2016 18.30 BST
Bangladesh is relocating around 2 million people from its coastal areas ahead of cyclone Roanu's anticipated landfall on Saturday evening, an event that also has authorities in neighbouring India and Myanmar on edge. ...


Click to enlarge.


Current progress of Roanu's tattered COC.
Quoting 76. barbamz:

Good evening! New site showing hazards to certain regions is online since yesterday. As much as I can see, there is no threat of a tropical cyclone for Germany, but volcanic hazards aren't out of question (which is true ;-)

About ThinkHazard!
ThinkHazard! is a new web-based tool enabling non-specialists to consider the impacts of disasters on new development projects. Users of ThinkHazard! can quickly and robustly assess the level of river flood, earthquake, drought, cyclone, coastal flood, tsunami, volcano, and landslide hazard within their project area to assist with project planning and design.
ThinkHazard! is a simple flagging system to highlight the hazards present in a project area. As such, a user is only required to enter their project location - national, provincial or district name. The results interface shows a user whether they require high, medium or low awareness of each hazard when planning their project.
ThinkHazard! also provides recommendations and guidance on how to reduce the risk from each hazard within the project area, and provides links to additional resources such as country risk assessments, best practice guidance, additional websites. ThinkHazard! also highlights how each hazard may change in the future as a result of climate change.



ThinkHazard! holds local data for the countries displayed in this map. Global data is available for river flood, earthquake, cyclone, water scarcity, and landslide. The tool code is open source, to encourage other users to adapt the tool to their needs. The code can be found on Github. Current instance version is 1.3.2 .

BTW, as Dave Petley says in his famous landslide blog, he contributed some work to show the hazards of landslides (and his blog also provides some infos about that deadly landslide in Sri Lanka some days ago).

You don't want to punch California in there, it is High on everything except Cyclone or Coastal Flood....
Interesting times in the arctic. Its too early to know if the arctic will be ice free this summer but we all have a guess (lets call ice free less than 1 million km^2) Let see how lucky Wundercommentors are - Vote now Yay or Nay! If Nay, how about 2 million km^2? Who says we don't even set a record?
Wet Bulb Near 35 C — Heatwave Mass Casualties Strike India Amidst Never-Before-Seen High Temperatures

Never-before-seen high temperatures and high humidity are resulting in thousands of heat injuries and hundreds of heat deaths across India. In some places, wet bulb readings appear to be approaching 35 C — a level of latent heat never endured by humans before fossil fuel burning forced global temperatures to rapidly warm. A reading widely-recognized as the limit of human physical endurance and one whose more frequent excession would commit the human race to enduring an increasing number of episodes of killing heat. A boundary that scientists like Dr. James Hansen warned would be exceeded if a human-forced warming of the world was not halted.

Link
Quoting 84. Snacker2:

Interesting times in the arctic. Its too early to know if the arctic will be ice free this summer but we all have a guess (lets call ice free less than 1 million km^2) Let see how lucky Wundercommentors are - Vote now Yay or Nay! If Nay, how about 2 million km^2? Who says we don't even set a record?


Area or extent? And using which data set?
And finally 
...
Another upper level devil, this time parked over the northern Sacramento Valley. Winds are howling along the coast, pumping up the upwelling of cold subsurface water. Winds are also gusting strongly inland as cold air aloft falls to the surface. Not much moisture yet, but some showers have popped over the valley this afternoon and moderate rain and snow have fallen in the northern mountains, especially around Mt. Shasta. The longer the upper low sits, the greater the chances for it to pull in some decent moisture from the Pacific.
Quoting 79. wunderkidcayman:



Yay!!!! We now have the first two official tropical waves of the season


You have to look back to see if what you post is already in the blog to not have duplicated things posted.Only 7 posts back.
'Half a million flee homes' as Sri Lanka grapples with deadly floods, landslides

Severe flooding in Sri Lanka has forced half a million people to flee their homes across the island nation, officials say, as the death toll from days of torrential rain and landslides rose to more than 60.

Link
Quoting 78. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The week of severe weather as forecast by models over the past two weeks is almost here. A threat for severe weather will exist across most of the Plains every day this week. The combination of adequate (but not extreme) shear as well as extreme CAPE and great moisture return means significant severe weather will also be possible. No day stands out as high risk material to me at this point, but the aforementioned combination means some interesting and dangerous things may play out over the next 7 days.


Entirely possible that there won't be a high risk issued this year.
Quoting 63. NoobDave:

What do you see?




A Mayan ruin.
" Yippy, and Yay " ?

Really ? Cheering for tropical waves?

Given the amount of energy we've seen in the system this year be care full what you cheer for.
Protests over massive power outage
Agitated residents of the North Karachi and Nazimabad town attacked the offices of K-Electric
Published: 17:00 May 20, 2016, Gulf News, Mohammad Ashraf, Correspondent
Karachi: An overnight power breakdown incited heat-struck citizens to attack private electric utility offices and rally on the roads to protest over the first major collapse of electricity supply during the ongoing heat spell.
The city plunged into darkness and electric fans and air-conditioners came to a halt in large parts of the city’s southern, eastern and central districts at around midnight on Thursday. The lights came back on several hours later.
The agitated residents of the North Karachi and Nazimabad town attacked the offices of electricity supplier K-Electric. ...


Farmer suicides soar in India as deadly heatwave hits 51 degrees Celsius
Sweltering country seeks the relief of the monsoon, but this year's downpour could be up to 11 days late as officials blame climate change
Independent, Ian Johnston Environment Correspondent, 8 hours ago

Drought pushes food prices up
FRANCISTOWN: The worst drought ever experienced in the Southern African region in 34 years has caused a hike in the price of agricultural products with potatoes being the worst affected.
ByLebogang Mosikare, Thu 19 May 2016, 10:59 am
Quoting 93. RobertWC:

" Yippy, and Yay " ?

Really ? Cheering for tropical waves?

Given the amount of energy we've seen in the system this year be care full what you cheer for.


The vast majority of tropical waves are harmless and bring beneficial rains to the Caribbean. I expect a certain rather parched user in the Caribbean who always complains about his rainfall deficit will be rather excited.
Quoting 93. RobertWC:

" Yippy, and Yay " ?

Really ? Cheering for tropical waves?

Given the amount of energy we've seen in the system this year be care full what you cheer for.
Its not like they're cheering for a major hurricane.Its like cheering for the first official kick off game of the season.
Quoting 91. CybrTeddy:



Entirely possible that there won't be a high risk issued this year.

Stop with that negativity. We haven't seen one since June 2014.
Quoting 86. wartsttocs:



Area or extent? And using which data set?

Hey C'mon, there's no money on this. If the chart at NSIDC shows less than 1 million km^2 its a blue ocean event. My vote is we'll make it.
95. CybrTeddy
The vast majority of tropical waves are harmless and bring beneficial rains to the Caribbean.

That was the old climate.


I don't know if you have noticed , but we crossed Rubicon . The old patterns are melting, like butter the Punjab. The 7% rule is taking over, See South Carolina last fall, see Texas, last May. See Texas this April.
See the 500,000 fleeing their homes tonight in Sri Lanka , none of these are Cat 5 Canes, but they sure ruined everyone's life style.
Quoting 97. washingtonian115:

Its not like they're cheering for a major hurricane.Its like cheering for the first official kick off game of the season.


Given the amount death and misery these things bring , "yippy and yay" . Are child like, and foolish. Too bad they aren't on Sri Lanka tonight. They could be "yippy and yaying" in chest deep water. A long with 500,000 people.
102. SLU
Quoting 95. CybrTeddy:



The vast majority of tropical waves are harmless and bring beneficial rains to the Caribbean. I expect a certain rather parched user in the Caribbean who always complains about his rainfall deficit will be rather excited.


Thank you sir.

From January to May is the dry season in the Caribbean. It's only when the first tropical waves arrive does our rainy season start. 70% of our annual rainfall comes from tropical waves. It's especially important this year since we are still in a major El Nino-induced drought. Only about 10% to 15% of tropical waves actually become tropical storms while only a generous 3 to 5% become major hurricanes and that's in the active seasons. Some years have 0% like 2013.
Cyclone Roanu looks better as it approach Bangladesh and that is definitely not good news.

Nice and dry day outside. Looks like we will get a break until mid to late next week when yet another deep Western trough settles into the Great Basin. Looking forward to the Memorial Day Holiday Weekend, the afternoon updated Climate Prediction Center Outlook suggests more unsettled weather is ahead. In their Experimental Week 3 to week 4 Outlook, no real change with cooler than normal temperatures due to above normal rainfall chances.

I think I'm going to have a heart attack!


Quoting 94. barbamz:

Protests over massive power outage
Agitated residents of the North Karachi and Nazimabad town attacked the offices of K-Electric
Published: 17:00 May 20, 2016, Gulf News, Mohammad Ashraf, Correspondent
Karachi: An overnight power breakdown incited heat-struck citizens to attack private electric utility offices and rally on the roads to protest over the first major collapse of electricity supply during the ongoing heat spell.
The city plunged into darkness and electric fans and air-conditioners came to a halt in large parts of the city’s southern, eastern and central districts at around midnight on Thursday. The lights came back on several hours later.
The agitated residents of the North Karachi and Nazimabad town attacked the offices of electricity supplier K-Electric. ...


Farmer suicides soar in India as deadly heatwave hits 51 degrees Celsius
Sweltering country seeks the relief of the monsoon, but this year's downpour could be up to 11 days late as officials blame climate change
Independent, Ian Johnston Environment Correspondent, 8 hours ago

Drought pushes food prices up
FRANCISTOWN: The worst drought ever experienced in the Southern African region in 34 years has caused a hike in the price of agricultural products with potatoes being the worst affected.
ByLebogang Mosikare, Thu 19 May 2016, 10:59 am




Wow! And I thought I had it bad here in Houston.
Quoting 88. BayFog:

Another upper level devil, this time parked over the northern Sacramento Valley. Winds are howling along the coast, pumping up the upwelling of cold subsurface water. Winds are also gusting strongly inland as cold air aloft falls to the surface. Not much moisture yet, but some showers have popped over the valley this afternoon and moderate rain and snow have fallen in the northern mountains, especially around Mt. Shasta. The longer the upper low sits, the greater the chances for it to pull in some decent moisture from the Pacific.


I bundled up and went for a 6 mile hike in the blowing snow a few miles north of Truckee earlier today. Meanwhile, the gauge at my house just now registered 0.01 inches of melted snow.

Click to enlarge.

Good night with the current photo of a new webcam of my German town Mainz, looking at our 1000 years old cathedral from southeast. It's the first high resolution webcam of Mainz. I live quite close btw. As I've heard some weather data should be enclosed to the website of the camera soon. So far, there's an archive available to look at the photos 24/7 of the last days. - Currently quite nice weather, as to be seen, with a peak of temperatures on Sunday, only to be followed by another plunge, associated with thunderstorms.
Webcam link for updates and the archive.
Quoting 84. Snacker2:

Interesting times in the arctic. Its too early to know if the arctic will be ice free this summer but we all have a guess (lets call ice free less than 1 million km^2) Let see how lucky Wundercommentors are - Vote now Yay or Nay! If Nay, how about 2 million km^2? Who says we don't even set a record?
Doubt we'll see < 1 million km^2 this decade; the thermodynamic problem is just too big.

It could easily happen by the end of the 2020s, though.
The 7% rule . Is starting to bite. The Colorado floods. The Lake District floods. The South Carolina floods.
The Houston floods.
These are not one off events. All of them rained a foot of rain in 24 hours. Without a tropical cyclone to help.


The list is long , and getting longer. The 7% rule is taking over.
Pretty nasty squall line off of Tampa. Who wants to bet it'll be nothing more than a few drops of rain by the time it reaches the coast?

102. SLU
Nice job.

But you live in the old world.
I assume it might be one of these tropical waves, that may trigger the possible system near the end of the month.
Quoting 63. NoobDave:

What do you see?




Oh! Umm...someone about to lose at centipede? ;)
115. MahFL
Quoting 60. Tropicsweatherpr:

Weak low east of Florida Penninsula shows up in ECMWF 12z run at 192 hours and it moves westnorthwest torwards Jacksonville We shall see if it pans out.




Oh yeh ?
List jumps to 89 predictions

14-6-3 Gatorwx
14-8-2 Originalllt
17-6-3 Chithom
16-8-3 Ryang
Quoting 84. Snacker2:

Interesting times in the arctic. Its too early to know if the arctic will be ice free this summer but we all have a guess (lets call ice free less than 1 million km^2) Let see how lucky Wundercommentors are - Vote now Yay or Nay! If Nay, how about 2 million km^2? Who says we don't even set a record?


Not really. You can say with an extremely high level of confidence that the arctic won't be ice free this year. Think of it this way. Take a look at 2012. The loses in 2012 were 3+ sigma. Even if we had such conditions this year (a huge if), it still wouldn't be enough to break the ice-free barrier. You'd need 4-5+ sigma losses, a mind boggling combination of arctic heating combined with winds for a ridiculous amount of transport.

A new record is at best 50/50 until we get to peak insolation. The loses this year have been quite dramatic to be sure, but again there have been other years that have started fast and ended up slow due to unusual weather patterns helping to preserve the ice.

This by no means should be taken as "the arctic is fine" or "the arctic is recovering" post, because it isn't. The ice is wrecked beyond any hope of recovery. It's only a matter of time before we have ice free arctic summers (and all the havoc that's going to wreck on weather patterns in the northern hemisphere).
Quoting 118. Gearsts:

Just imagine last year we had record shear in the caribbean blowing all the way to 80 knots at times.
Quoting 116. MaxWeather:

List jumps to 89 predictions

14-6-3 Gatorwx
14-8-2 Originalllt
17-6-3 Chithom
16-8-3 Ryang
I see 4-6-3 Gearsts on your list? I think my numbers were 14-6-3.
Quoting 120. Gearsts:

I see 4-6-3 Gearsts on your list? I think my numbers were 14-6-3.

Yes. Good catch! I just took care of it

Kyon5 I got you down. 90th prediction
Quoting 118. Gearsts:


Looks like low shear for basically the first half of June it appears from the CFS. That will certainly open the window for storms.
123. SLU
CaribBoy on tonight?

Quoting 122. Climate175:

Looks like low shear for basically the first half of June it appears from the CFS. That will certainly open the window for storms.
Evening all .

Sure hope that setup changes before ASO... Some nasty landfall potential in there....
Quoting 110. CybrTeddy:

Pretty nasty squall line off of Tampa. Who wants to bet it'll be nothing more than a few drops of rain by the time it reaches the coast?




Yep. Weakening. Central and southern Pinellas should get a little bit of rain out of it. Third time this week the line has fizzled off of northern Pinellas.
The snow has slowed down now; 0.21 inches melted in my PWS. A little over 3 inches on my picnic table out back.

I also see 5 deer out in the woods behind my house, pushing snow off the brush with their noses. They are funny this afternoon, bouncing around like a bunch of baby goats!
Quoting 125. Bucsboltsfan:



Yep. Weakening. Central and southern Pinellas should get a little bit of rain out of it. Third time this week the line has fizzled off of northern Pinellas.


Um I am in Largo and it is pretty nasty here
Quoting 99. Snacker2:


Hey C'mon, there's no money on this. If the chart at NSIDC shows less than 1 million km^2 its a blue ocean event. My vote is we'll make it.


Not for extent and not this year. The NSIDC minimum for 2012 is a little less than 3.5 mil and that year had the Great Arctic Cyclone. Even with the headstart I would be shocked to see this year drop below 3 never mind 1.
Quoting 127. Hurricanes101:



Um I am in Largo and it is pretty nasty here


It filled in and we are getting pretty heavy rain up here.

The wave train has started up.
Quoting 117. Xyrus2000:



Not really. You can say with an extremely high level of confidence that the arctic won't be ice free this year. Think of it this way. Take a look at 2012. The loses in 2012 were 3+ sigma. Even if we had such conditions this year (a huge if), it still wouldn't be enough to break the ice-free barrier. You'd need 4-5+ sigma losses, a mind boggling combination of arctic heating combined with winds for a ridiculous amount of transport.

A new record is at best 50/50 until we get to peak insolation. The loses this year have been quite dramatic to be sure, but again there have been other years that have started fast and ended up slow due to unusual weather patterns helping to preserve the ice.

This by no means should be taken as "the arctic is fine" or "the arctic is recovering" post, because it isn't. The ice is wrecked beyond any hope of recovery. It's only a matter of time before we have ice free arctic summers (and all the havoc that's going to wreck on weather patterns in the northern hemisphere).


I agree (I'm random an erratic with my posts). One factor I looked up which I found interesting. In the 1920s to about 1950 there was a warming period in the Arctic, the first that could be observed with some clout though said to be regional to the Atlantic. I looked at the hurricanes through 1954 in that time and Florida got slammed very hard in that as did New England, compared with the past 20 years with 2004 and 2005 being an exception as a larger melt begins. I have no idea if this is a correlation or not but it would make some sense, or not idk but it was an interesting thing.
Quoting 125. Bucsboltsfan:



Yep. Weakening. Central and southern Pinellas should get a little bit of rain out of it. Third time this week the line has fizzled off of northern Pinellas.


I take that one back. It strengthened at landfall and we got a really nice rain.
Quoting 108. AdamReith:

Doubt we'll see < 1 million km^2 this decade; the thermodynamic problem is just too big.

It could easily happen by the end of the 2020s, though.


Yeah that's about when I'm expecting it. When this happens a strip of thick multiyear ice will persist near the Canadian coast for many years after the rest of the Arctic routinely melts out in summer.
134. IDTH
Quoting 118. Gearsts:



That almost looks too unrealistic for June.
Quoting 123. SLU:

CaribBoy on tonight?




Something interesting may happen this year.. after last year's disappointment.
It will be a dud for the western Carib we have to hang on to this fing El Niño till next year it's so dry here here people going crazy!
Quoting 135. CaribBoy:



Something interesting may happen this year.. after last year's disappointment.
Bs
Quoting 134. IDTH:


That almost looks too unrealistic for June.
Still is
Quoting 119. washingtonian115:

Just imagine last year we had record shear in the caribbean blowing all the way to 80 knots at times.
Quoting 123. SLU:

CaribBoy on tonight?


Levi mention the CFS having a wet bias over the MDR or something.
Quoting 136. 19N81W:

It will be a dud for the western Carib we have to hang on to this fing El Niño till next year it's so dry here here people going crazy!

You sound a little bit trollish.
141. SLU
Quoting 139. Gearsts:

Levi mention the CFS having a wet bias over the MDR or something.


Yes it does
Quoting 136. 19N81W:

It will be a dud for the western Carib we have to hang on to this fing El Niño till next year it's so dry here here people going crazy!



According to WKC, this year will be very interesting especially in the W Caribbean! He could be right who knows...
It would be a dramatic shift we are full on drought
Quoting 142. CaribBoy:



According to WKC, this year will be very interesting especially in the W Caribbean! He could be right who knows...
Quoting 139. Gearsts:

Levi mention the CFS having a wet bias over the MDR or something.


Why not a dry bias instead lol. Seriously I'm feeling sad now ;)
Quoting 142. CaribBoy:



According to WKC, this year will be very interesting especially in the W Caribbean! He could be right who knows...


Doesn't he say that every year?
Quoting 130. HurricaneFan:


The wave train has started up.


Is that like the Peace Train?
Quoting 139. Gearsts:

Levi mention the CFS having a wet bias over the MDR or something.


If you watch his video, he thinks the MDR will be below normal in tropical activity with closer to home being normal to slightly above normal.
Quoting 143. 19N81W:

It would be a dramatic shift we are full on drought



Last year was extremely dry here because of El Nino. Less than 20 inches of rain fell from jan 1st to dec 31th. Trust me I know it's not pretty.
Quoting 104. pureet1948:

Nice and dry day outside. Looks like we will get a break until mid to late next week when yet another deep Western trough settles into the Great Basin. Looking forward to the Memorial Day Holiday Weekend, the afternoon updated Climate Prediction Center Outlook suggests more unsettled weather is ahead. In their Experimental Week 3 to week 4 Outlook, no real change with cooler than normal temperatures due to above normal rainfall chances.

I think I'm going to have a heart attack!





It rained most of the day here, so that graphics is correct for at least my little area in AK, it did snow Weds. in Tok, AK.

It will be interesting to watch the level of sea ice this year. Hope that NASA can get a replacement sat. up as soon as possible. I know it takes time.
That's my point many people on here and the models keep forcasting poop for lack of a better word. I think with climates changing so dramatically the models are quite frankly poop.

It's all a poop show......
This place is dead ......reefs are white ....its kinda sad because everyone here is in a cubicle in a law firm or accountancy firm or bank no one is seeing how we are dying
Quoting 148. CaribBoy:



Last year was extremely dry here because of El Nino. Less than 20 inches of rain fell from jan 1st to dec 31th. Trust me I know it's not pretty.
Really?.....the models are a bunch of
Quoting 145. Bucsboltsfan:



Doesn't he say that every year?
152. IDTH
Quoting 150. 19N81W:

That's my point many people on here and the models keep forcasting poop for lack of a better word. I think with climates changing so dramatically the models are quite frankly poop.

It's all a poop show......
This place is dead ......reefs are white ....its kinda sad because everyone here is in a cubicle in a law firm or accountancy firm or bank no one is seeing how we are dying


You sure like the word poop.
Quoting 150. 19N81W:

That's my point many people on here and the models keep forcasting poop for lack of a better word. I think with climates changing so dramatically the models are quite frankly poop.

It's all a poop show......
This place is dead ......reefs are white ....its kinda sad because everyone here is in a cubicle in a law firm or accountancy firm or bank no one is seeing how we are dying



That last part is only going to get worse as the next generation coming up doesn't know what playing outside is. They are attached to their smart phones, laptop computers, tablets, and games. We didn't have that growing up - we went outside and flew kites, fished, went to the beach (and not just with our parents because we were forced), we bicycle riding, to parks, etc...

My kids must think the air outside is poison because it's like pulling teeth to get them to go out for anything. Even in my poor health I enjoy walking around outside - as long as there are no bears or moose around.

I couldn't wait to leave the house to go outside when I was a kid. You just couldn't keep me indoors...
They should actually come visit and have a look around and look up in the sky instead of making these assumptions on a computer model that is pulling in analog data from decades past. You can't compare analogs anymore especially not in an extreme El Niño event. Why does an amateur have to tell a professional that? No clouds no rain weird winds heat like an oven vegetation dying and we continue with the same drama crap models? If we see even a lick of a tc it would nothing less than a miracle region is dead dead dead
Quoting 142. CaribBoy:



According to WKC, this year will be very interesting especially in the W Caribbean! He could be right who knows...
Quoting 148. CaribBoy:



Last year was extremely dry here because of El Nino. Less than 20 inches of rain fell from jan 1st to dec 31th. Trust me I know it's not pretty.


Lucky you, that is over twice what I got(7.82")....
I can't say the s word
I have respect for the site
But I am frustrated
Quoting 152. IDTH:


You sure like the word poop.
Quoting 155. PedleyCA:



Lucky you, that is over twice what I got(7.82")....
I was in CA last year it was unreal
I feel for you I really do

Quoting 155. PedleyCA:



Lucky you, that is over twice what I got(7.82")....
Quoting 158. 19N81W:

I was in CA last year it was unreal
I feel for you I really do




I hope you islanders get some rain soon.
Quoting 154. 19N81W:

They should actually come visit and have a look around and look up in the sky instead of making these assumptions on a computer model that is pulling in analog data from decades past. You can't compare analogs anymore especially not in an extreme El Niño event. Why does an amateur have to tell a professional that? No clouds no rain weird winds heat like an oven vegetation dying and we continue with the same drama crap models? If we see even a lick of a tc it would nothing less than a miracle region is dead dead dead



You're basically long-windedly saying that the model initializations of a wet Caribbean are wrong; that's definitely a good place to start. But again, you can't use backyard weather to make explicit, untestable (aka, not scientific) claims that a hurricane won't traverse the western Caribbean this year. I don't care if you ARE native to the Caymans; that would've been like me saying back in 2012 that we would never get Isaac because of the persistent dry conditions over the plains, or in 2005 saying that because spring troughing preceded summer ridging over the eastern US, we wouldn't get Katrina. You destroy your position before it even begins.
Quoting 155. PedleyCA:



Lucky you, that is over twice what I got(7.82")....


I can't believe you only got 7.82"... That's crazy...
Quoting 161. Dakster:



I can't believe you only got 7.82"... That's crazy...


This year so far it is 5.22".... but I don't know when we will see any more....
Quoting 162. PedleyCA:



This year so far it is 5.22".... but I don't know when we will see any more....


2021?
Quoting 117. Xyrus2000:



Not really. You can say with an extremely high level of confidence that the arctic won't be ice free this year. Think of it this way. Take a look at 2012. The loses in 2012 were 3 sigma. Even if we had such conditions this year (a huge if), it still wouldn't be enough to break the ice-free barrier. You'd need 4-5 sigma losses, a mind boggling combination of arctic heating combined with winds for a ridiculous amount of transport.

Don't forget waves, Xyrus. Waves haven't been a player in the Central Arctic Basin (CAB) to this point, and still aren't. At some point, however, they will become extremely important in melting the ice. That point probably isn't this year, though.

ADS-NIPR (formerly IJIS) extent dropped below 11 million sqkm today (5/21). That's earliest ever. The previous fastest drop to 11 m was last year and occurred on May 29; the next after that was June 3, 2011. So, the melt this year has been extremely fast. That means almost nothing about what this year's melt will be ultimately. The melting thus far overwhelmingly is in areas that melt out every year, so they'll have no direct impact on the seasonal low. However, all that open water will suck up more heat as we reach peak insolation.

It's an interesting year. I agree with you, though, about 50/50 for a new record. Second place looks pretty likely and third looks like a slam dunk. But as always it comes down to weather.

Edit to Add: This is from user DavidR over on the Arctic Sea Ice Blog.


Looks like we're just above that 4-sigma change at present --at least in extent.
Quoting 163. Dakster:



2021?


Well, I hope we get some before then. The El Nino wasn't very good to the South of Calif. We are headed into the DRY season soon, might be there already. There is a 20% chance of some tomorrow, crosses fingers it is our area.
Quoting 165. PedleyCA:



Well, I hope we get some before then. The El Nino wasn't very good to the South of Calif. We are headed into the DRY season soon, might be there already. There is a 20% chance of some tomorrow, crosses fingers it is our area.


Wet up here... Actually have a puddle at the end of the driveway. I hope you get some soon.
Quoting 166. Dakster:



Wet up here... Actually have a puddle at the end of the driveway. I hope you get some soon.


You still have another hour before sundown? I see you have lots of rain chances.
Yeah now it will rain for days on end... Well, they call it rain. More mist /drizzle.

More than an hour of light left, the sun goes down in an hour - but it never really gets dark anymore.
169. 882MB
Quoting 116. MaxWeather:

List jumps to 89 predictions

14-6-3 Gatorwx
14-8-2 Originalllt
17-6-3 Chithom
16-8-3 Ryang


Hey Max, put me down as 17-8-5. Thanks :)
Quoting 168. Dakster:

Yeah now it will rain for days on end... Well, they call it rain. More mist /drizzle.

More than an hour of light left, the sun goes down in an hour - but it never really gets dark anymore.


Mist/Drizzle is better than nothing. Land of the Midnight SUN
Quoting 170. PedleyCA:



Mist/Drizzle is better than nothing. Land of the Midnight SUN


For sure. I will take it. Don't want the city to burn down. That Fort Mac fire is still going strong. They think months before those people can move back.
euro seems to like something going on 200 plus but does not seem sure where its going to happen
Good Morning... :)

Time to wake up from hibernation.

Some subtropical type activity if conditions allows by start of season.
Quoting 174. WxLogic:

Good Morning... :)

Time to wake up from hibernation.

Some subtropical type activity if conditions allows by start of season.


Wellcome. Getting close to start watching those 364 hour models! Scratch that - 5 day models...... Anyway, that time of the year is almost here. Do you have any thoughts about the 2016 season?
Quoting 140. Gearsts:

You sound a little bit trollish.
It's been pretty bad there.
Without Twave activity traversing the basin, the Caribbean is hard pressed for precipitation. If the MDR produces this year that could mean persistence of dry conditions in the WCar.

Quoting 175. Bucsboltsfan:



Wellcome. Getting close to start watching those 364 hour models! Scratch that - 5 day models...... Anyway, that time of the year is almost here. Do you have any thoughts about the 2016 season?


Hi Bucs... well, in my opinion, I expect it to be avg. to slightly above avg. I do believe this El Niño episode assisted just enough in the destabilization of the Caribbean and Gulf so these would tend to be "hot spots" this year.



jbs latest hurricane prediction has s florida in his cone of doom
GFS. CMC, and Euro are all now picking on something forming near the end of the month.
Well something is missin then
Quoting 177. WxLogic:



Hi Bucs... well, in my opinion, I expect it to be avg. to slightly above avg. I do believe this El Niño episode assisted just enough in the destabilization of the Caribbean and Gulf so these would tend to be "hot spots" this year.




183. elioe
Quoting 84. Snacker2:

Interesting times in the arctic. Its too early to know if the arctic will be ice free this summer but we all have a guess (lets call ice free less than 1 million km^2) Let see how lucky Wundercommentors are - Vote now Yay or Nay! If Nay, how about 2 million km^2? Who says we don't even set a record?


I'll stick with my February prediction of 3.59 million km². I think that North Pole will be ice-free first time on September 11, 2017. And that it will be ice-covered on June 15, 2030 for the last time, at least for a century.
Still working on a forecast, but I will say that la nina conditions tend to favor increased landfalls. Big key will be when those conditions start to impact ATL wx...
185. elioe
NSIDC sensors really need more calibration. They are showing Gulf of Finland being ice-covered. And they claim, that the median ice coverage for May 20 includes parts of Gulf of Finland and Gulf of Riga. Lol.

Don't think I ever suggested something wouldn't traverse our area. On another note not a cloud strong e se winds and already smoking hot. Where are you a native then? Don't put that much in these long run models they seem to only get it right once it's already happening. Sort of like a desk chair athlete screaming at the tv.
Quoting 160. KoritheMan:



You're basically long-windedly saying that the model initializations of a wet Caribbean are wrong; that's definitely a good place to start. But again, you can't use backyard weather to make explicit, untestable (aka, not scientific) claims that a hurricane won't traverse the western Caribbean this year. I don't care if you ARE native to the Caymans; that would've been like me saying back in 2012 that we would never get Isaac because of the persistent dry conditions over the plains, or in 2005 saying that because spring troughing preceded summer ridging over the eastern US, we wouldn't get Katrina. You destroy your position before it even begins.
Quoting 185. elioe:

NSIDC sensors really need more calibration. They are showing Gulf of Finland being ice-covered. And they claim, that the median ice coverage for May 20 includes parts of Gulf of Finland and Gulf of Riga. Lol.




The median sea ice overlay has nothing to do with sensors, it is based on a time period for comparison.
Weatherman: a dangerous job for sure :-)


19.05.2016: WATCH: Bryan Hughes weatherman GIRLY SCREAM as he spot Giant Spider on his screen's map live on air. TV station WOWK, which covers West Virginia, told fans that Bryan Hughes' girly scream was real and that he'd been genuinely shocked by the creepy crawlie
189. elioe
Quoting 187. Naga5000:



The median sea ice overlay has nothing to do with sensors, it is based on a time period for comparison.


Well, I was unclear. With sensor calibration I referred to the current ice situation only. But surely they used some sensor to get the data between 1981 and 2010. Perhaps the correct wording for what they should do about the median sea ice overlay is "reassess the quality of their data"...
Possible GOMEX mischief in 10 days?

06z GFS


00z ECMWF

18 killed as cyclone Roanu hits coastal districts
Bangladesh, Online Desk | Update: 19:48, May 21, 2016
At least 18 people were killed and 50 others injured due to landslides and storms, triggered by the cyclonic storm Roanu which made the landfalls in the country’s coastal districts on Saturday.
According to our correspondents and UNB news agency, of the dead, a child in Chittagong city, six in Banshkhali, mother and child in Sitakunda, a woman in Patuakhali’s Dashmina upazila, two in Tajumuddin of Bhola, three in Kutubdia of Cox’s Bazar, three including mother and daughter in Noakhali and one in Lakshmipur.
Besides, four people went missing as two sand-laden cargoes sank in the Meghna River in Ilisha of Bhola’s Sadar upazila during the heavy rains in the morning, Bhola sadar police station officer-in-charge Khairul Kabir told the news agency. ...

Whole article see link above.
192. elioe
Quoting 190. CybrTeddy:




The GFS prediction is fascinating. A tropical depression making landfall in Georgia/South Carolina on May 31, while another tropical cyclone is forming in the Gulf of Mexico... Three pre-season TCs would be a record, I guess?
I liked Levi's analogy on the season ahead. As long as that negative tripole exists in the Atlantic Basin look for the MDR to be shut down for the most part, possibly enhancing the Caribbean on down the road and even the Gulf of Mexico if waves can get to that point.

I wouldn't be surprised if we get the majority of the activity this year outside the MDR corridor, especially the eastern most part. What few storms we get could very well be problematic to land area's, but we have to wait and see.

You can clearly see the developing negative tripole within the last seven days.


As you can see it beginning to take shape in the overall anomaly patterns currently, but will it hold for the season?


Source Credit: tropicaltidbits.com
Just got back inside after being caught in a surprise downpour.... wasn't expecting this much thunderstorm activity based on the imagery....





Am I wrong to think there should be more activity near TnT at this time of year?
Quoting 186. 19N81W:

Don't think I ever suggested something wouldn't traverse our area. On another note not a cloud strong e se winds and already smoking hot. Where are you a native then? Don't put that much in these long run models they seem to only get it right once it's already happening. Sort of like a desk chair athlete screaming at the tv.

I think it has been explained many times before that it takes the atmosphere sometime to catch up with what's going on in the oceans (the lagging affect).The rain will come but taking your frustration out on the bloggers here for posting models will not make that rain come any faster.
197. SuzK
Hi MaxWeather! Please add me to your list for 16-6-2. Thank you!
Quoting 150. 19N81W:

That's my point many people on here and the models keep forcasting poop for lack of a better word. I think with climates changing so dramatically the models are quite frankly poop.

It's all a poop show......
This place is dead ......reefs are white ....its kinda sad because everyone here is in a cubicle in a law firm or accountancy firm or bank no one is seeing how we are dying

How are the stingrays holding up??
This Tropical Wave looks fairly decent IMO. Still too far south for any development, but if Tropical Waves continue to look decent it may mean that the Cape Verde season won't be as inactive as people are saying.
Quoting 190. CybrTeddy:

Possible GOMEX mischief in 10 days?

06z GFS


00z ECMWF




It's too far out yet to be reliable, even if multiple models show it. I mean the Euro/GFS/CMC were showing an EPAC storm a few weeks ago in the 10 day range but we saw how that materialised. Although it appears the MJO will be giving a boost of upward motion to the Eastern Atlantic come early-mid June so we could see the next storm then.

Good to see the wave train starting up now, let's hope they'll give a nice soaking to those in the Caribbean who need it!

SPC is still calling for an active week next week.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0412 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

VALID 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
AN ACTIVE SEVERE-WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
MO VALLEY/MIDWEST. THIS WILL GENERALLY BE ATTRIBUTABLE TO
SEMI-PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGHING WEST OF THE ROCKIES AND
NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD-DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH A
PARTICULARLY MOISTURE-RICH/STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO OZARKS/MIDDLE MS VALLEY...IN THE
ABSENCE OF LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING.

CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT AT LEAST CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISKS ARE
PLAUSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST DAY 7/FRIDAY. IT SHOULD ALSO BE
NOTED THAT GRAPHICAL RISK ADJUSTMENTS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE NEEDED AS
MESOSCALE DETAILS ARE RESOLVED.

DAY 4/TUESDAY...INCREASING/NORTHWARD RETURNING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT/DRYLINE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
LOWER-AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER
MIDWEST...SHOULD LEAD TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS RISKS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO LOWER/MIDDLE MO VALLEY.

DAY 5/WEDNESDAY...AS THE DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH OVERSPREADS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF IA/IL/MO/INDIANA...AND POSSIBLY AS FAR
NORTH AS WI/MI PENDING EARLY-DAY CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER. AT LEAST A
CONDITIONAL-TYPE SEVERE RISK COULD EXIST SOUTHWESTWARD NEAR THE
FRONT ACROSS KS AND/OR NEAR THE OK/TX DRYLINE. HOWEVER...STORM
COVERAGE-RELATED UNCERTAINTIES IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK/NEUTRAL
LARGE-SCALE FORCING CURRENTLY PRECLUDES A GRAPHICALLY DEPICTED
SEVERE RISK ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS.

DAY 6/THURSDAY...IT APPEARS THAT A NORTHEASTWARD-EJECTING SOUTHERN
STREAM TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
APPROACH THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. A RELATED STRENGTHENING OF
WESTERLIES ALOFT SHOULD OVERSPREAD A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO MO VALLEY/MIDWEST WITH A PROBABLE
SEVERE RISK OVER PARTS OF THESE REGIONS.

DAY 7/FRIDAY...CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATIONS ARE THAT AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR /IN THE
ABSENCE OF LOCALIZED CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING/ AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR PROBABLE PARTICULARLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO OZARKS/ARKLATEX.

..GUYER.. 05/21/2016
Day 2 for tomorrow

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS A BROAD PORTION OF THE
GREAT PLAINS ON SUNDAY.

...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE CONUS/CANADA
SUNDAY...HIGHLIGHTED BY A NORTHEASTWARD-PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES TO NORTHERN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT
WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHILE A SOUTHWARD
EXTENDING DRYLINE WILL BE A FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS INCLUDING WESTERN OK/TX...
ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH...WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS/MODEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN CONJUNCTION
MODESTLY STRENGTHENING MID/HIGH-LEVEL WESTERLIES...WHILE FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL TEND TO BE WEAKER SOUTHWARD INTO WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST
TX. BENEATH AN ADVECTING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER...INCREASINGLY RICH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH MIDDLE/UPPER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL
RESULT IN STRONG DESTABILIZATION NEAR/EAST OF THE DRYLINE AS IT
EXTENDS NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF KS/OK/TX.

THAT SAID...A POINT OF CURRENT UNCERTAINTY RELATES TO THE POSSIBLE
PERSISTENCE/EXTENSIVENESS OF EARLY-DAY CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHWEST TX SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL THAT
THIS CONVECTION COULD PERSIST AND FORWARD PROPAGATE AS A
SLOW-MOVING/LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL
TX /AND POSSIBLY EVEN THE TX COAST/...WITH AT LEAST SOME DAMAGING
WIND RISK SHOULD THIS OCCUR. EARLY-DAY CONVECTION-ASSOCIATED
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING COULD ALSO REFOCUS A LATE-AFTERNOON SEVERE RISK
SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTHWEST TX INCLUDING THE CAPROCK VICINITY/TX
SOUTH PLAINS/LOW ROLLING PLAINS.

REGARDLESS...GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE PRESENCE OF 35-45 KT
OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING... PARTICULARLY
ACROSS FAR WESTERN OK AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST/WEST TX NEAR/EAST OF THE
DRYLINE. SOMEWHAT HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES /ENHANCED RISK/ MAY BE
WARRANTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION AS MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTIES ARE
BETTER RESOLVED.


...NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
INITIALLY...ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION ON THE EDGE OF STRONGER
CAPPING ALOFT...A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS COULD DEVELOP AS EARLY
AS SUNDAY MID/LATE MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST KS/EASTERN NEB
INTO SOUTHEAST SD. WHILE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/MODERATE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT SOME HAIL POTENTIAL IF/WHERE
STORMS FORM...THE OVERALL RISK SHOULD BE MITIGATED BY WEAK
CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/
AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT. WHILE CAPPING WILL INITIALLY
PREVAIL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TO OCCUR BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN A NNE-SSW CORRIDOR ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS/WESTERN NEB AND POSSIBLY FAR SOUTHEAST WY/NORTHEAST CO IN
VICINITY OF THE FRONT/NORTH OF A SURFACE LOW. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE POSSIBLE. WHILE THE
DEGREE OF FORCING/COLD FRONT...NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS ABOVE THE
SURFACE...AND RELATIVELY MODEST BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT
THE OVERALL TORNADO RISK...A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH PARTS OF WESTERN/NORTHWEST NEB MOST LIKELY TO HAVE A
TORNADO RISK/LARGER HAIL POTENTIAL GIVEN SOMEWHAT GREATER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT ALOFT. AS THE
COLD FRONT CONTINUES EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD...STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
EVENTUALLY MERGE/GROW UPSCALE AND INCREASE IN OVERALL COVERAGE
SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS THEY SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NEB INTO NORTHERN/WESTERN KS...WITH AT LEAST
SEVERE WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL CONTINUING.

...SOUTH FL...
A COUPLE OF STORMS CAPABLE OF STRONGER WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE ENTIRELY
RULED OUT MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FL PENINSULA. THIS AREA WILL BE
REEVALUATED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS FOR ANY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

..GUYER.. 05/21/2016

Quoting 197. SuzK:

Hi MaxWeather! Please add me to your list for 16-6-2. Thank you!

Better post it in his blog as well, in case Max misses your post in here.
Quoting 193. ILwthrfan:

I liked Levi's analogy on the season ahead. As long as that negative tripole exists in the Atlantic Basin look for the MDR to be shut down for the most part, possibly enhancing the Caribbean on down the road and even the Gulf of Mexico if waves can get to that point.

I wouldn't be surprised if we get the majority of the activity this year outside the MDR corridor, especially the eastern most part. What few storms we get could very well be problematic to land area's, but we have to wait and see.


Just as a note, here's May 21st 2015:



Mid-August (when the peak of the hurricane season starts) 2015:



SSTs can and will change over the next few months. If we have an SST set up similar to 2015 for the peak of the hurricane season, things will be very interesting indeed. Especially considering we won't have 50-80kts of wind shear over the Caribbean all season. Most models are predicting an SST set up similar to 2015:





205. SuzK
Quoting 203. barbamz:


Better post it in his blog as well, in case Max misses your post in here.


Thank you very kindly Barbamz! I have done as you advised. Best wishes!
seems as if the shear is easing somewhat in the central & western carib
204. Envoirment
11:34 AM EDT on May 21, 2016
I was about to put the same thing.Actually sst were at record levels in the MDR for so late in the season last year and honestly if if wasn't for El nino I think 2015 could have been very active and even more destructive than what it was.We managed to squeeze out 11 name storms in some of the worst condition seen in years over the atlantic which is why I think if the sst profile reverses in the MDR like last year and the caribbean is open we could see a slightly above average hurricane season.


faster and faster we go
Quoting 189. elioe:



Well, I was unclear. With sensor calibration I referred to the current ice situation only. But surely they used some sensor to get the data between 1981 and 2010. Perhaps the correct wording for what they should do about the median sea ice overlay is "reassess the quality of their data"...

Based upon what evidence...?
210. bwi
Today's update from the JAXA-ADS measure (aka IJIS) h/t ASIF ice watchers

Earliest date for IJIS sea ice extent to drop below 11,000,000 km2

1. May 20, 2016
2. May 29, 2015
3. June 3, 2011

Average date
2003-2015: June 9
2000s: June 15
1990s: June 24
1980s: July 3

211. elioe
Quoting 209. ScottLincoln:


Based upon what evidence...?


For example, more direct observations of Finnish Meteorological Agency.

(Jäätä = ice , Vettä = water , Normaalitilanne = normal conditions)


Quoting 199. HurricaneFan:

This Tropical Wave looks fairly decent IMO. Still too far south for any development, but if Tropical Waves continue to look decent it may mean that the Cape Verde season won't be as inactive as people are saying.



A lot of years I've seen tropical waves that look like tropical storms in late May into June and July and then come August, September and October and the waves look like they've come down with the flu. So you are correct in that it may signal an active season or it may not at all. Like the sheriff said in the movie Deliverence, "lets just wait and see, what comes out of the river".
Quoting 211. elioe:



For example, more direct observations of Finnish Meteorological Agency.

(Jt = ice , Vett = water , Normaalitilanne = normal conditions)





The FMA is using a mean, not median, and a different baseline. The two are not comparable.

As for the map showing there to be some sea ice there, and other data showing no ice (even the graphic in #208 shows no ice there), it is possibly an artifact of resolution, or a misreading of the sensor data. In the long term, this ice melts out anyways so it shouldn't be an issue. And as long as it is consistent in it's misreading, there would also be no issue if that were the case. My guess is it's simply a resolution problem. (If I am understanding what it is you are talking about here).
We dont look to Africa in June nor May for activity.



215. DDR
Hey baha,the rainy season here actually started a few weeks ago,a couple weeks early but welcomed,thanks to some troughs,but we usually get our first big rains in the last half of May,so this is normal.
Quoting 195. BahaHurican:



Am I wrong to think there should be more activity near TnT at this time of year?
216. elioe
Quoting 213. Naga5000:



The FMA is using a mean, not median, and a different baseline. The two are not comparable.

As for the map showing there to be some sea ice there, and other data showing no ice (even the graphic in #208 shows no ice there), it is possibly an artifact of resolution, or a misreading of the sensor data. In the long term, this ice melts out anyways so it shouldn't be an issue. And as long as it is consistent in it's misreading, there would also be no issue if that were the case. My guess is it's simply a resolution problem. (If I am understanding what it is you are talking about here).


On May 12th, there were only small chunks of ice at the end of Gulf of Bothnia. Those have likely melted by now given our temperatures reaching +15 - +20 each day. No ice in lakes on either side of Gulf of Finland either. So it can't be a resolution issue, has to be another type of glitch. Of course, this localized error doesn't affect much the total area/extent of sea ice in Northern Hemisphere, which has been shown in multiple sources to be record low by a large margin. But if there are some numerical weather or climate forecast models using NSIDC data as input in their initializations, while the data shows a patch of tens of thousands of sq.km. to be ice-covered, while in reality it's ice-free with surface temperatures between +8 and +14 C, the error might significantly hinder the performance of such models.
Quoting 214. Patrap:

We dont look to Africa in June nor May for activity.




in normal times this is farfromnormal
Quoting 214. Patrap:

We dont look to Africa in June nor May for activity.




Traditionally, we do not look to Africa in June nor May for activity... but in light of our changing climate and increasing amount of unprecedented climate events we should not assume that what has been will continue to be.. imho
Climatology still rules the roost.

How many May and June Canes have you seen the last 10-20-30 years?

Image courtesy of KTLA CH-5 Los Angeles..

This Tank ET-94 is headed to be paired with the Shuttle already at the California Science Center.
Quoting 220. PedleyCA:

Image courtesy of KTLA CH-5 Los Angeles..

This Tank ET-94 is headed to be paired with the Shuttle already at the California Science Center.


That trip by Barge began here like a Month ago.

Last space shuttle tank leaves New Orleans by sea, not air for its journey to L.A.


The 15-story external tank known as ET-94 was meant to latch onto a space shuttle, thrust it into outer space and then detach and burn up in a blaze of glory.

But tragedy altered its destiny. ET-94 remained solidly on Earth. It narrowly survived Hurricane Katrina and is now the last of a fleet of 136 external tanks.

On Tuesday, it began a decidedly different journey, by sea, from New Orleans, to its new home in Los Angeles.

For the next five weeks, ET-94 will be strapped to an ocean barge. It will cross the Panama Canal, ride up the Pacific Coast and dock in Marina del Rey in mid-May. Then, like the space shuttle Endeavour before it ET-94 will ride through Los Angeles streets before arriving at the California Science Center in Exposition Park. There, it will go on permanent display with the Endeavour.

BREAKING NEWS!

This just in: Invasive Nile Crocodiles Were Captured in Florida, DNA Study Confirms

So, be careful if you are walking around, it seems as if there may be a breeding population already established (yes, they are maneaters).
And if you want to get all sciencey - a link to a pdf of the paper is below.

Molecular Analyses Confirming the Introduction of Nile Crocodiles, Crocodylus niloticus Laurenti
1768 (Crocodylidae), in Southern Florida, with an Assessment of Potential for Establishment, Spread,
and Impacts
.

Michael R. Rochford, Kenneth L. Krysko, Frank J. Mazzotti, Matthew H. Shirley, Mark W. Parry, Joseph A.
Wasilewski, Jeffrey S. Beauchamp, Christopher R. Gillette, Edward F. Metzger III, Michikoa A. Squires, and
Louis A. Somma




Edit: The statement regarding breeding population of Nile Crocodiles is totally and completely my speculation and has in no way been established scientifically.
Caiman crocodilus (the Spectacled Caiman) is the only non-native crocodilian species that is verified as being established in Florida.
I wonder if they have a pair of boosters to go along with it?
Quoting 225. PedleyCA:

I wonder if they have a pair of boosters to go along with it?
likely its going on display
The first part of what you said was informative the second not so much. Pretty sure all I was doing was expressing my opinion on a public forum. I think the attack came from the other side. Blog on

Quoting 196. washingtonian115:

I think it has been explained many times before that it takes the atmosphere sometime to catch up with what's going on in the oceans (the lagging affect).The rain will come but taking your frustration out on the bloggers here for posting models will not make that rain come any faster.
They have to wear sunscreen now😊
Quoting 198. JNFlori30A:

How are the stingrays holding up??

Quoting 225. PedleyCA:

I wonder if they have a pair of boosters to go along with it?


231. SLU
Quoting 215. DDR:

Hey baha,the rainy season here actually started a few weeks ago,a couple weeks early but welcomed,thanks to some troughs,but we usually get our first big rains in the last half of May,so this is normal.


Hey man DDR. Didn't see you all last year. How are you?
Quoting 227. 19N81W:

The first part of what you said was informative the second not so much. Pretty sure all I was doing was expressing my opinion on a public forum. I think the attack came from the other side. Blog on


You said what people were forecasting were poop.
Quoting 226. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

likely its going on display


Right, they are going to stand it all up. I found a picture.

More info here: exhibit
Oh come on poop is a funny word anyway your right my apologies that was in appropriate obviously it's not poop I guess perhaps it was frustration.
Quoting 232. washingtonian115:

You said what people were forecasting were poop.
Continental dry air will be pushing its way down the Peninsula with this next front. That will delay the "rainy" season pattern for at least next week here in S.W. Florida.



Day 3, Surface Map - shows the front clearing all of Florida.
236. DDR
Hey,I'm good,thanks for asking,hope you are as well,life has me very busy these days.
Quoting 231. SLU:



Hey man DDR. Didn't see you all last year. How are you?
Quoting 195. BahaHurican:



Am I wrong to think there should be more activity near TnT at this time of year?

Rains are pretty early in fact.
It was a Severe dry season, especially the temps.
We expect some showers in May, and rains to begin properly in June, normally.
The showers over the last 2 weeks have been most welcomed, as we were losing a lot of forest to fires.
Quoting 218. JNFlori30A:

Traditionally, we do not look to Africa in June nor May for activity... but in light of our changing climate and increasing amount of unprecedented climate events we should not assume that what has been will continue to be.. imho


Everytime I see this sort of chart I'm reminded of Hurricane Dennis.

Link
See anything unusual?

Quoting 239. NoobDave:

See anything unusual?




Nope...
Quoting 239. NoobDave:

See anything unusual?



Yes small square of 35C (95F) waters
Quoting 215. DDR:

Hey baha,the rainy season here actually started a few weeks ago,a couple weeks early but welcomed,thanks to some troughs,but we usually get our first big rains in the last half of May,so this is normal.
Hey, DDR. At least my timing is on... :-)

I guess I'm more used to seeing Twave formations with showers extending further north....
Quoting 223. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



Evidently still a lot of wind shear over the Caribbean.
oddly enough as we move closer to the hurricane season we are actually drier and are seeing less convection than the middle of our winter months...in fact over the last few weeks virtually cloud free for most of the days. So either its getting worse or the Bermuda high has become so large its impacting all the way to us.
Quoting 243. BayFog:


Evidently still a lot of wind shear over the Caribbean.
Quoting 244. 19N81W:

oddly enough as we move closer to the hurricane season we are actually drier and are seeing less convection than the middle of our winter months...in fact over the last few weeks virtually cloud free for most of the days. So either its getting worse or the Bermuda high has become so large its impacting all the way to us.

Usually when we see that dry a May, June ends up super rainy. Not sure how quickly you guys will see a change.... maybe 10 days from now, if that Twave survives. Anyway, it seems something will have to come along and destabilize the atmosphere down there in a dramatic way.
By mid week next week a major pattern change for the Mid Atlantic and New England. The Mid Atlantic and New England have been pretty chilly (below average) for a while.

Above average temperatures on Wednesday next week. The pattern pretty much stays that way. A chance for those swimming pools and lakes to possibly warm up a little before Memorial Day weekend (when many pools open in that part of the country for the summer).

Right now I can imagine that the lakes and pools are pretty chilly for swimming in the Mid Atlantic and New England region. Way too cold for me.




To illustrate my point, this storm [the 1926 Nassau Hurricane] formed in the last part of July. It has a typical track for that time of year. Most June and early July majors impact the WCAR and GOM. Thus if we see a CV style storm any time soon, we may be able to talk seriously about shifts due to AGW. Right now I'm not seeing anything to suggest that any early storm would start east of 50W ....
Area between 60 - 80 W and 20 - 30 N could potentially see subtropical cyclogenesis over the next 10 14 .... other than that I'm not seeing huge potential. Still a lot of hindering factors out there.
One hell of a supercell up in Montana.

May Gray is still with us... but it was clear early today, but didn't get hot here. 73.4F right now...
Quoting 252. Gearsts:

Bonnie and Colin?
What a 1030mb area of high pressure can do...

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 7h7 hours ago
Thats quite an ensemble signal for a subtropical genesis setup. Big ridge to north means watch beneath in long range
Quoting 254. TropicalAnalystwx13:

What a 1030mb area of high pressure can do...


Memorial weekend is coming up! Looks like it will finally be nice enough to spend long hours outdoors.
Quoting 262. Gearsts:





What is it?


Record-Breaking Heat Grips India Amid Rash of Farmer Suicides

One agricultural region, Marathwada, located in the Indian state of Maharashtra, saw some 400 suicides through mid-May this year, according to a report published on Tuesday in The Indian Express newspaper. Over the past 16 months, 1,548 distressed farmers have been reported dead from suicide in the region, the paper said.

Link


Sorry but the Daily Mail put this up first –

Why sea ice in Antarctica has INCREASED while the Arctic melts: Nasa study reveals how climate change has affected the poles

Nasa combined data on sea temperature, land form and ocean depth
Found geology and Southern Ocean are responsible for the difference
These influence the strength and direction of winds and ocean currents
Winds drive formation of Antarctica’s sea ice cover and help sustain it


Read more: Link
Quoting 264. RobertWC:



Record-Breaking Heat Grips India Amid Rash of Farmer Suicides

One agricultural region, Marathwada, located in the Indian state of Maharashtra, saw some 400 suicides through mid-May this year, according to a report published on Tuesday in The Indian Express newspaper. Over the past 16 months, 1,548 distressed farmers have been reported dead from suicide in the region, the paper said.

Link



That's truly awful.
268. SLU
Quoting 236. DDR:

Hey,I'm good,thanks for asking,hope you are as well,life has me very busy these days.


Yes i'm great. Hope you find time to hang out with us this year. It could be interesting.
The models have been showing a low pressure form near florida either heading into the gulf or florida it looks like the models have been consistant with something so looks like next weekend is gonna be fun to watch stay tuned






























Well it seems we will see a dry summer here in the south.
271. SLU
Quoting 248. BahaHurican:


To illustrate my point, this storm [the 1926 Nassau Hurricane] formed in the last part of July. It has a typical track for that time of year. Most June and early July majors impact the WCAR and GOM. Thus if we see a CV style storm any time soon, we may be able to talk seriously about shifts due to AGW. Right now I'm not seeing anything to suggest that any early storm would start east of 50W ....


Yes and even if we get a Cape Verde storm in May or June (east of 45W) which is going to be a record, who's to say there was never one prior to 1851 before the hurricane database was established in the pre-AGW era. Maybe it happens on a timescale of once every 200 years? Recorded history has shown us that it's possible in even normal climatic conditions.







Quoting 266. CybrTeddy:



That's truly awful.


75% of India lives in rural areas. They are preyed up on by lenders extending loans at over 10%. To drill wells, lay pipelines to water sources that never work out.

This whole story reminds me of the Syria. When 1.5 million people were driven off the land.

India and Pakistan are flirting with disaster.

Both governments are clueless . Although, the Pakistanies are digging mass graves, after last year when people rotted in ambulances, because the bodies came in so fast.

How the "Hoax" has pulled off all these deaths is beyond me.
Quoting 269. James1981cane:

The models have been showing a low pressure form near florida either heading into the gulf or florida it looks like the models have been consistant with something so looks like next weekend is gonna be fun to watch stay tuned


































Does it show it going eastward towards the Texas Coast? You've got my eyebrows raised because the models are suggesting an Easterly wave moving across the Gulf next weekend into the early days of June. I really do not see any significant change in the current pattern even into the Extended Range. That does not bode well if we have some sort of tropical or sub tropical system meandering in our backyard.

Get back with me as soon as you can.
Quoting 273. pureet1948:




Does it show it going eastward towards the Texas Coast? You've got my eyebrows raised because the models are suggesting an Easterly wave moving across the Gulf next weekend into the early days of June. I really do not see any significant change in the current pattern even into the Extended Range. That does not bode well if we have some sort of tropical or sub tropical system meandering in our backyard.

Get back with me as soon as you can.



Calm down Pureet. Absolutely nothing to worry about right now and don't be upset if he doesn't "get back to you as soon as you can."
Quoting 258. pureet1948:


.



Good job quoting another source without citation... http://spacecityweather.com/surprise/
Quoting 275. jeffs713:



Good job quoting another source without citation... http://spacecityweather.com/surprise/


I didn't think he wrote that. Gotta cite your sources.
GFS looked sexy at 6 and 12z. I'll take it; last week's storms weren't enough. I'm greedy and inconsiderate. :P
looks like in the 0Z GFS has the ridge weaker and it just slides up the east coast which is the possiblility so we are looking at a GOM threat or a east coast threat to early to tell how the ridge will be at the time weak or strong
279. 882MB
00Z GFS model moving up in timeframe, and intensity, with our "Potential" subtropical, or tropical development late next week north of Hispaniola.
Quoting 279. 882MB:

00Z GFS model moving up in timeframe, and intensity, with our "Potential" subtropical, or tropical development late next week north of Hispaniola.


yea I see that it depends on how strong the ridge is where it will go looking like it might be quite strong despite this model run I'm thinking south Carolina florida and GOM is in the mix so lets wait and see what we got here
Quoting 278. James1981cane:

looks like in the 0Z GFS has the ridge weaker and it just slides up the east coast which is the possiblility so we are looking at a GOM threat or a east coast threat to early to tell how the ridge will be at the time weak or strong


The ridge is oriented enough that being on either side of it will make a huge difference. West side it's Gulf Coast ahoy, and east side it's north ahoy.
Quoting 281. KoritheMan:



The ridge is oriented enough that being on either side of it will make a huge difference. West side it's Gulf Coast ahoy, and east side it's north ahoy.



The ridge will decide what happens so will wind shear that's a important ingredient needed for development also sea surface temps
Quoting 270. hotroddan:

Well it seems we will see a dry summer here in the south.


That's what La Nina usually does.
Quoting 224. daddyjames:

BREAKING NEWS!

This just in: Invasive Nile Crocodiles Were Captured in Florida, DNA Study Confirms

So, be careful if you are walking around, it seems as if there may be a breeding population already established (yes, they are maneaters).
And if you want to get all sciencey - a link to a pdf of the paper is below.

Molecular Analyses Confirming the Introduction of Nile Crocodiles, Crocodylus niloticus Laurenti
1768 (Crocodylidae), in Southern Florida, with an Assessment of Potential for Establishment, Spread,
and Impacts
.

Michael R. Rochford, Kenneth L. Krysko, Frank J. Mazzotti, Matthew H. Shirley, Mark W. Parry, Joseph A.
Wasilewski, Jeffrey S. Beauchamp, Christopher R. Gillette, Edward F. Metzger III, Michikoa A. Squires, and
Louis A. Somma




Edit: The statement regarding breeding population of Nile Crocodiles is totally and completely my speculation and has in no way been established scientifically.
Caiman crocodilus (the Spectacled Caiman) is the only non-native crocodilian species that is verified as being established in Florida.


Yes. Remember that hurricane that came through and blew the bejesus out of south Florida there in... I guess it was '92? Well some fellow had an exotic reptile operation right in its path. Nothing to be found of it afterward. I think it was the New Yorker where I read about it.

Yes, here it is:
Link

Edit: Arrrg! Hard to believe thit that was 24 years ago!~
well CMC has whatever..coming into say Melbourne,then riding up the east coast of florida..........
towards the end of this coming week,just finally something to watch and maybe track..CMC has a LOW coming into east coast of florida..Euro has the Low down by the keys and last run of GFS has the Low in the gulf..yes too early yet and model runs will change thru the coming days, just interesting that this early..3 models are picking up on something.
I think the ridge will be stronger it might go into the gulf
the last GFS had this going into the gulf ?
Quoting 289. James1981cane:

the last GFS had this going into the gulf ?
waiting for the new run to finish..but we have many days to watch this..too early yet.
now this GEFS model has whatever it will be..in south florida...................................
Quoting 285. MontanaZephyr:



Yes. Remember that hurricane that came through and blew the bejesus out of south Florida there in... I guess it was '92? Well some fellow had an exotic reptile operation right in its path. Nothing to be found of it afterward. I think it was the New Yorker where I read about it.

Yes, here it is:
Link

Edit: Arrrg! Hard to believe thit that was 24 years ago!~


LOL - I know I lived there (well, in Broward county) when Andrew hit.

Where I used to work, the USDA station located off of Old Cutler Road in Pinecrest, you could note what time it was in the afternoon (2pm or 3pm depending upon whether daylight savings was in effect) when the 3 Macaw parrots (Andrew escapees from Parrot Jungle) would fly by on their daily "patrol". At the station, I personally saw: red-tailed boas, a monitor lizard (which one I don't know), basilisks (aka "Jesus Christ" lizards], iguanas (of course), Mynah birds, Monk parakeets, and a coyote (who ate the domestic turkey that found its way and was living on the property). Oh, and the resident population of peacocks that lived there as well.

And BTW - no reminding me of how old I am!

Quoting 292. daddyjames:



LOL - I know I lived there (well, in Broward county) when Andrew hit.

Where I used to work, the USDA station located off of Old Cutler Road in Pinecrest) you could note what time it was in the afternoon (2pm or 3pm depending upon whether daylight savings was in effect) when the 3 Macaw parrots (Andrew escapees from Parrot Jungle) would fly by on their daily "patrol". At the station, I personally saw: red-tailed boas, a monitor lizard (which one I don't know), basilisks (aka "Jesus Christ" lizards], iguanas (of course), Mynah birds, Monk parakeets, and a coyote (who ate the domestic turkey that found its way and was living on the property). Oh, and the resident population of peacocks that lived there as well.




I grew up in Fort Lauderdale. One of my good friend's from back then was really into reptiles, and his dad was one of the main people in the local herpetological society. One day (pre Andrew I believe), I went over to his house after school to see a Nile monitor someone had caught and dropped off to his dad. I'll never forget that big lizard in his bathtub while his dad and another guy tried to de-tick it.
Looks like this one has the ridge a bit stronger but not by much at least we are in agreement something might form
(Essentially) the forecast for the Plains/Oklahoma for the next 7 days:

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND COUPLE OF TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY/MID-EVENING
{Sigh}

Eventually my luck is going run out, and hail "large-enough-to leave-significant-dents-in-the-car" (my own classification system) will be experienced. I hate hail.
sure around the edges of the path of andrew captive animals got loose but where he came onshore it killed everything that was not hunkered down. a friend drove through homestead a week after it hit he told me it smelled like death. so many little critters got killed.
Quoting 293. Naga5000:



I grew up in Fort Lauderdale. One of my good friend's from back then was really into reptiles, and his dad was one of the main people in the local herpetological society. One day (pre Andrew I believe), I went over to his house after school to see a Nile monitor someone had caught and dropped off to his dad. I'll never forget that big lizard in his bathtub while his dad and another guy tried to de-tick it.


I myself had - at one time - an 11 foot Burmese python and a 6 foot Boa constrictor (i love snakes). Would not do it again (the python). At about 11 feet and above - you really need 2 people to safely handle it.

BTW - I am sure you know what your "handle" refers to - any indication of what you do or interests?
And you have WU mail.
see too early yet..now GFS has it on the atlantic side..run to run it will change huh..
trough digging south into s.eastern us
Good morning, unfortunately with more bad news from Bangladesh:

23 dead as Cyclone Roanu wrecks havoc in Bangladesh
IBT, By Pavitra Dwibhashyam, May 22, 2016 09:58 BST
At least 23 people have been killed when Cyclone Roanu lashed southern Bangladesh on 21 May. Around 500,000 were forced to flee their homes as the storm's heavy rains led to floods and landslides in numerous areas.
Hundreds of houses and businesses were submerged and trees uprooted in southern districts, while many villages in low lying areas were inundated, officials said. Although the storm weakened by the evening, rains continued to batter the area. ...


301. beell
Philadelphia, Philadelphia International Airport

Time: 8:54
Wind: NW 8
Sky: Overcast
Temp: 56°F
Dp: 49°F
RH: 77%
Press: 1011.2 mb
Very warm temperatures in Germany today - but beware, the cold front of low "Barbara" (lol, it's me) is on the way to enter the country and to trigger thunderstorms tonight and tomorrow.


Current temperatures in Europe (updating).


Current IR loop (updating).

Current SYNOPSIS from Estofex:
Amplified pattern remains in store over Europe. Deep trough over W-Europe acquires a neutral tilt during the forecast and transformation into a cut-off over the Alps will be in progress. Downstream ridge axis extends from the Adriatic to the Baltic Sea with another trough over E-Europe showing no significant shift to the east.
At lower levels, an extensive frontal boundary bisects Europe and reaches from Norway to Germany to the W-Mediterranean and arches back towards S-Portugal. Uncertainties exist where surface cyclones evolve along that boundary, but lee cyclogenesis over NW Italy during the night is a reasonable forecast. Another vortex seems to evolve over Denmark with a potential third and very weak one over SE Germany. This scenario would result in faster frontal motion over S-Germany and the W-Mediterranean. ...



Surface map for tomorrow.

Let's see what happens; I'm out until later this evening, so I have to rely on the display of the real sky, not the screen, weatherwise :-) .... Wish you a nice Sunday, folks!
Joplin tornado happened five years ago this evening.

Quoting 300. barbamz:

Good morning, unfortunately with more bad news from Bangladesh:

23 dead as Cyclone Roanu wrecks havoc in Bangladesh
IBT, By Pavitra Dwibhashyam, May 22, 2016 09:58 BST
At least 23 people have been killed when Cyclone Roanu lashed southern Bangladesh on 21 May. Around 500,000 were forced to flee their homes as the storm's heavy rains led to floods and landslides in numerous areas.
Hundreds of houses and businesses were submerged and trees uprooted in southern districts, while many villages in low lying areas were inundated, officials said. Although the storm weakened by the evening, rains continued to batter the area. ...





It seems like any time something happens in Bangladesh people die. Cyclones right before or right after the monsoon kicks up can't be helpful.
Quoting 270. hotroddan:

Well it seems we will see a dry summer here in the south.


*facepalm*

I can't believe it. My prediction for pop up storm season (15 storms in any one day, 6 strong, 4 severe, 5 weak) may have to be revised.

Feth you, Storm God.
Your eyes are not deceiving you folks.Yes this is a map for May not August.
Quoting 306. washingtonian115:

Your eyes are not deceiving you folks.Yes this is a map for May not August.

Imagine what August itself will be like with it already looking like it.
Quoting 307. Climate175:

Imagine what August itself will be like with it already looking like it.


Not a good combination with the analog year tracks (higher frequency on guaranteed US landfall tracks through the Gulf) and how powerful "close to home" systems already can be.
Quoting 306. washingtonian115:

Your eyes are not deceiving you folks.Yes this is a map for May not August.



Here's a comparison to the last few years:







2016 is ahead by quite some way.
12z GFS is running, let's see what it shows for the potential storm.
More likely a Memorial Day heat wave for the East Coast. But I'm not sure I'd want to get in the water from the Mid Atlantic northward.

Water temperature at Atlantic City, New Jersey is 56 degrees. That will give you hypothermia pretty quickly without a wet-suit.
These impulses that keep going over the same areas just won't leave Patrap alone. They've certainly had some juice to them; and shear thankfully. This one today has excellent divergence, passable convergence and zero vorticity. Shear has fallen off some in the area of this complex. Could be a redo of afternoon blobation attempt we saw just a couple days ago over the Gulf.
Last three impulses to come through Florida brought roughly 47 wind damage reports and four tornadoes.  Not to mention some record rains for some areas.  Not catastrophic, but the same areas keep getting systems again and again and again.  Really a big part of the El-Nino story for America.  Texas, Arkansas, Mississippi, Oklahoma, and Louisiana.  Florida's been, as expected, above average for severe weather too.  Late bloom to severe season begins now.  Heat really arrives and now we get to see the cap break on our year in climate to come.  Buckle up.
Quoting 316. Climate175:



Arthur was the Independence Day Storm. Ana was the Mother's Day Storm. Will Bonnie be the Memorial Day Storm?
12z GFS has a tropical storm making landfall on the South Carolina/North Carolina Border.
Quoting 316. Climate175:


I haven't seen any models giving this whatever it is..any real bad winds..which is a good thing..so far anyway.
Quoting 322. Climate175:

12z GFS has a tropical storm making landfall on the South Carolina/North Carolina Border.
No TS winds.
Quoting 324. Gearsts:

No TS winds.
Who knows what it could be, we just got to watch over the next few days.
Quoting 261. washingtonian115:

Memorial weekend is coming up! Looks like it will finally be nice enough to spend long hours outdoors.



Good beach weekend if you don't go in the water. Water likely still way too cold
Quoting 232. washingtonian115:

You said what people were forecasting were poop.


Well the truth is THAT's likely to verify!


Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service New Orleans la
510 am CDT sun may 22 2016

Short term (today through Tuesday night)...

Cold front, extending from the Florida and Alabama coastal waters
to near the coast of Louisiana, is expected to continue pushing a
bit further south into the northeast Gulf of Mexico as an upper
trough amplifies down into the southern mid Atlantic coast.
The boundary may not move much more along the southwest and south
central Louisiana coast today. A surface ridge with drier and
slightly cooler air has been pushing south to the north of the
frontal boundary, and this change in airmass should hold through
at least today and tonight before the high pressure area becomes
centered east of the area later on Monday.

The first in a series of minor shortwave troughs is approaching
from the western Gulf Coast, and this has been helping fire off
an area of scattered thunderstorms, some strong to severe, along
the frontal boundary over the immediate coastal area of southwest
and south central Louisiana and the near-shore coastal waters.
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
continue expanding east across the southeast Louisiana coastal
areas early this morning, and there is a slight chance for some
showers and possibly a few thunderstorms to develop a bit inland
over areas mainly south of I-10. The stronger thunderstorms should
remain mostly over the coastal waters west of Southwest Pass, and
could produce very strong gusty winds and hail this morning.
Convective activity should diminish a bit late this morning and
this afternoon and thermal gradient reverses between the Gulf and
land. The combination of the weak cold air advection and periods
of thicker clouds this morning should help keep temperatures in
check compared to yesterday's hot readings which reached 90 for
the first time this Spring at many locations. Highs today should
top out in the mid 80s with lower humidity.

A mid/upper ridge (between two troughs over both the west and east
coasts) will be sliding slowly east from the upper Mississippi
Valley to the Southern Plains today, reaching the Great Lakes
region to the lower Mississippi Valley and western Gulf Coast on
Monday. It is unclear show much weak shortwave energy and/or upper
level divergence will move along the stalled frontal boundary
tonight and Monday, however the European model (ecmwf) model continues to suggest
some isolated coastal showers and thunderstorms will develop over
the southwest areas tonight and western areas on Monday, so have
continued this trend from the previous forecasts. Temperatures
over the northern and eastern areas are expected to drop well into
the 60s again tonight, but then most areas are expected to be
warmer tomorrow with highs returning to the upper 80s.

The upper low associated with the East Coast trough will be
lifting northeast towards the New England coast Monday night and
Tuesday while a series of shortwave troughs moving into a mean
trough over the West Coast keeps a stagnant pattern there. The
ridge over our region will be flatter allowing weak disturbances
to move over the ridge in the southern belt of the stronger
westerlies. The surface high pressure ridge will be centered east
of the region with southerly winds expected. This will allow a
more Summer-like pattern on Tuesday with isolated diurnal showers
and thunderstorms expected to develop as the seabreeze works
inland.

Quoting 326. georgevandenberghe:



Good beach weekend if you don't go in the water. Water likely still way too cold
My family and I are going to a theme park and if there is a storm off the east coast by then,rip currents will be a problem as well.
Seems like this year has been quiet for severe Tornados in the US. Thank you _____.
331. elioe
Quoting 326. georgevandenberghe:



Good beach weekend if you don't go in the water. Water likely still way too cold


I'm planning on having a whole week dedicated to gardening and swimming in my original hometown. Lake surface temperatures have reached at least +12 C. Good weather for most of the week too.
Interesting,GEFS model takes whatever into the FLA/GA border then inland...
Grew up on NJ Shore. Spring/early Summer quite the tease along the beach. Days would start off hot until about the noon seabreeze shift and the temp would drop from 85F to 60F seemingly immediately. Summer doesn't come full swing to the NJ Shore until July 4th weekend, 8 weeks later it is basically over. Too short for me and that is why I live further south. As a kid our warmest ocean temps in late August were low seventies (and that was toasty). Now they flirt with 80F which was unheard of 35+ years ago.

Ran track in high school. Our track was the boardwalk along the ocean. February and March practices were miserable. It may have been in the 40's at the school, but by the time we jogged the mile to the beach, it was usually windy and 10F colder.

Same story for Long Island. Watch "Jaws." All the tourists arrive July 4th weekend for the summer.

Quoting 312. Sfloridacat5:

More likely a Memorial Day heat wave for the East Coast. But I'm not sure I'd want to get in the water from the Mid Atlantic northward.

Water temperature at Atlantic City, New Jersey is 56 degrees. That will give you hypothermia pretty quickly without a wet-suit.
Michael Ventrice %u200F@MJVentrice 3h3 hours ago
Some weakness in vertical wind shear over the western sub-tropical Atlantic next week.

Levi Cowan %u200F@TropicalTidbits 19m19 minutes ago
GEFS Day 7 vs. 500mb anomaly from all 30 May/June TC formations near SE U.S. coast since 1975 (23 tropical, 7 not)
Looking foreward to the JUNE predictions from all of the forecast agencies . with what i am seeing now i expect the numbers to point to an active if not a very active season. Be prepared.
Quoting 333. HaoleboySurfEC:

Grew up on NJ Shore. Spring/early Summer quite the tease along the beach. Days would start off hot until about the noon seabreeze shift and the temp would drop from 85F to 60F seemingly immediately. Summer doesn't come full swing to the NJ Shore until July 4th weekend, 8 weeks later it is basically over. Too short for me and that is why I live further south. As a kid our warmest ocean temps in late August were low seventies (and that was toasty). Now they flirt with 80F which was unheard of 35 years ago.

Ran track in high school. Our track was the boardwalk along the ocean. February and March practices were miserable. It may have been in the 40's at the school, but by the time we jogged the mile to the beach, it was usually windy and 10F colder.

Same story for Long Island. Watch "Jaws." All the tourists arrive July 4th weekend for the summer.




Yeah, I grew up vacationing in Ocean City, Maryland each summer when I was living in the Washington D.C. area. I remember the water being chilly, but I handled it. The water would get up into the low 70s towards the end of the summer. I'm not sure I could deal with it today. Since living in Florida for the past 20 years, I don't like cold water.

I'll be in Cocoa Beach for a couple weeks in June to just surf as much as possible. I'm hoping I get a few good days mixed in there.

Quoting 322. Climate175:

12z GFS has a tropical storm making landfall on the South Carolina/North Carolina Border.


Two years in a row, what luck!
Was out last Wednesday NC/SC border. Water 73F here. Hopefully our Memorial Day storm comes a little early, but most likely the best waves will be Tuesday (work day). Lol. Enjoy Cocoa.

Won't catch me in anything under 78F without some neoprene. I'm a whimp these days.

Quoting 336. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, I grew up vacationing in Ocean City, Maryland each summer when I was living in the Washington D.C. area. I remember the water being chilly, but I handled it. The water would get up into the low 70s towards the end of the summer. I'm not sure I could deal with it today. Since living in Florida for the past 20 years, I don't like cold water.

I'll be in Cocoa Beach for a couple weeks in June to just surf as much as possible. I'm hoping I get a few good days mixed in there.


Quoting 337. win1gamegiantsplease:



Two years in a row, what luck!
If it rides up the coast it will get rid of what ever "rain deficit" we had.I don't see how we're still in one after all of the rain we've had.
Very quiet across the US weatherwise. Too quiet.
This little impulse is caught up in some interesting winds, should move ESE and lose any connected vorticity but strengthen as a MCS before it crosses Florida and enters the Bahamas and maybe forms a low in the process. Very active area. Something forming in the Bahamas northward could happen during the next week.
Quoting 333. HaoleboySurfEC:

Grew up on NJ Shore. Spring/early Summer quite the tease along the beach. Days would start off hot until about the noon seabreeze shift and the temp would drop from 85F to 60F seemingly immediately. Summer doesn't come full swing to the NJ Shore until July 4th weekend, 8 weeks later it is basically over. Too short for me and that is why I live further south. As a kid our warmest ocean temps in late August were low seventies (and that was toasty). Now they flirt with 80F which was unheard of 35 years ago.

Ran track in high school. Our track was the boardwalk along the ocean. February and March practices were miserable. It may have been in the 40's at the school, but by the time we jogged the mile to the beach, it was usually windy and 10F colder.

Same story for Long Island. Watch "Jaws." All the tourists arrive July 4th weekend for the summer.




September is an underrated month to go down the shore, especially the first half. They call it "locals summer". Tourists have picked that up in recent years though.
Hello and happy Sunday to all

93 predictions on my list as I speak.
I feel happy im fast approaching my goal of 100.

Remember you can change your numbers at any time, let me know!
A week and a half left before all is over!
September is a gem.

Quoting 343. wxgeek723:



September is an underrated month to go down the shore, especially the first half. They call it "locals summer". Tourists have picked that up in recent years though.
This was issued an hour ago.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0676
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0139 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST KS TO TX SOUTH PLAINS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 221839Z - 222045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE BY 20-21Z. LARGE BUOYANCY AND SUFFICIENT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD FAVOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH ALL HAZARDS
POSSIBLE INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL.

DISCUSSION...18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES THE DRYLINE NEAR THE CO/KS
BORDER SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INTO FAR EAST-CENTRAL NM AND THEN SOUTH INTO
THE PERMIAN BASIN. CU HAS BEGUN TO FORM ALONG THE NM/WRN TX
PANHANDLE PORTION OF THE DRYLINE...WHILE DOWNSTREAM TCU/SMALL CBS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE. AIR MASS
IS QUITE MOIST FOR THIS LONGITUDE WITH 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS BEING
MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. THIS IS YIELDING AN
UNCAPPED...STRONGLY BUOYANT ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE OF 2500-3500
J/KG. WHILE DEEP SHEAR IS MODEST CURRENTLY PER 18Z AMA
RAOB...DEEP-LAYER WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN INTO THIS EVENING. PRIMARY
INITIAL RISK SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL...WITH ALL HAZARDS BECOMING MORE
PROBABLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

..GRAMS/HART.. 05/22/2016


ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

This is the current radar for AMA.

It's too quiet.
GEOS-5 has that possible storm looking more together today.

Red alert.



SEL0

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 190
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
250 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
WEST TEXAS INCLUDING THE PANHANDLE

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 250 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE AND SPREAD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. VERY
LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH A RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 90 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
LUBBOCK TEXAS TO 20 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF GARDEN CITY KANSAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27020.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0677
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/WRN NEB...S-CNTRL SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 221954Z - 222130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WATCH ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY 21Z.

DISCUSSION...AT 1930Z...SLOWLY DEEPENING CU WAS NOTED ALONG A WEAK
SFC BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM WRN NEB INTO S-CNTRL SD...WITH CG ACTIVITY
RECENTLY NOTED ACROSS CHERRY COUNTY. SOME CU WAS ALSO NOTED ALONG A
DRYLINE NEAR THE NE/CO/KS BORDERS. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
ACROSS THIS AREA...AS SAMPLED BY THE 18Z LBF SOUNDING...IS
CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE BUOYANCY.
THE MODIFIED LBF SOUNDING YIELDS MLCAPE OF AROUND 2000 J/KG...WHICH
IS IN AGREEMENT WITH RECENT MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATES. THE OBSERVED
WIND PROFILE FROM THE SOUNDING AND LNX VWP INDICATES FAVORABLE
EFFECTIVE HELICITY OF AROUND 150-200 M2/S2...THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
IS RELATIVELY WEAK AND SOME UNFAVORABLE BACKING OF THE MIDLEVEL FLOW
WAS NOTED AS WELL.

IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK VORT MAX IS APPROACHING SW NEB...BUT IT IS
UNCLEAR IF THIS FEATURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE AND SUSTAIN
DEEP CONVECTION...GIVEN SOME RESIDUAL CAPPING AND VERY DRY AIR ALOFT
NOTED ON THE LBF SOUNDING. LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ASCENT WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EWD
OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN...WITH INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
EXPECTED IN THE 22-00Z TIME FRAME.

ONCE INITIATION OCCURS...SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME TORNADO RISK WILL ALSO
EXIST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN PART OF THE MCD AREA...WHERE
LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE BACKED IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN CO. STORM MODE MAY BECOME
INCREASINGLY MIXED WITH NWD EXTENT GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF BACKED
MIDLEVEL FLOW...BUT INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
SEVERE RISK EXTENDING INTO CNTRL SD.

..DEAN/HART.. 05/22/2016
Shortest. Forecast. Discussion. Ever.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
208 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

High pressure sliding east across the region will give us dry
conditions and winds shifting to the south. The warm up will
continue Monday and Tuesday with highs in the lower 80s. Lows
tonight and Monday night will be in the middle 50s to around 60
degrees, and Tuesday night in the lower to middle 60s.

Models show an upper level wave moving across the area Tuesday
into Tuesday night. GFS/Canadian bring some precip into our far
west/northwest counties as early as 12z Tuesday, while the ECMWF
is a bit slower. ECMWF/Canadian keep precip light and scattered
at best through 12z Wednesday, while GFS shows more significant
QPF. Prefer the less aggressive ECMWF/Canadian solutions. Went
with low chances for showers and thunderstorms in our far west
counties Monday night, with scattered showers and storms slowly
spreading east Tuesday into Tuesday night.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

Few changes to the long term. Unsettled SW H5 flow will persist
while we remain warm sector. This will result in on and off chances
of convection through the period. Confidence in timing and coverage
are still in question given the lack of a frontal presence, and lack
of significant features aloft. Plenty of moisture means any storms
could produce locally heavy rain, perhaps locally gusty winds. You
will see several periods in the forecast with a 40-50 percent chance
of rain. However it will not rain the entire time. There will be
breaks. Otherwise warmer than normal temperatures with more summer
like humidity. Continue to favor a MOS/Ensemble MOS blend for
temps/PoPs.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1127 AM CDT Sun May 22 2016

Through Monday morning, P6SM, SKC, light winds.

Will Sunspots or El Nino make man made global warming that is decimating Arctic sea ice go away? Not a chance...


353. beell

Current RAP Sfc-6 km shear

Healthy shear values approaching Nebraska portion of the dry line. Probably some decent upslope surface flow over extreme southeastern WY and northeastern CO in response to the surface low/lee trough along the front range also.
354. Slayz
why are some people using an anomaly map as the current set map for the mdr and north atlantic ?
Quoting 354. Slayz:

why are some people using an anomaly map as the current set map for the mdr and north atlantic ?

To quickly determine if it is above/below normal for an average temperature determined from a set period of time.
Quoting 353. beell:


Current RAP Sfc-6 km shear

Healthy shear values approaching Nebraska portion of the dry line. Probably some decent upslope surface flow over extreme southeastern WY and northeastern CO in response to the surface low/lee trough along the front range also.


Is that good?
Is that bad?
Is it just is?
Or is that relative to where you are located and when you might be there?
Wow I know we say it every year but I really can't believe how hot it is in Cayman already and yes again with virtually cloud free at least when I took off a couple hours ago
Last few years please go away now we need rain

Quoting 257. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Quoting 309. Grothar:




it took me a while, but it definitely is Snoopy!
Quoting 346. HaoleboySurfEC:

September is a gem.



This is true in MD also
Columbus day weekend at ocean city was a family rite for years
361. beell
Quoting 356. daddyjames:



Is that good?
Is that bad?
Is it just is?
Or is that relative to where you are located and when you might be there?


First and foremost, It is just is.
If you're a weather geek, you might say this man-made construct of statistically notable 0-6 km shear values are beneficial to the development of supercells.
If you're a cow, a quail, or a coyote in Nebraska, you might be more of a cow, a quail, or a coyote than usual.
Same for some of the human population.

I am in Philadelphia at present. I have been here a week. I have not seen a cow, a quail, or a coyote. I feel good-how about you, dj?
:)
Quoting 361. beell:



First and foremost, It is just is.
If you're a weather geek, you might say this man-made construct of statistically notable 0-6 km shear values are beneficial to the development of supercells.
If you're a cow, a quail, or a coyote in Nebraska, you might be more of a cow, a quail, or a coyote than usual.
Same for some of the human population.

I am in Philadelphia at present. I have been here a week. I have not seen a cow, a quail, or a coyote. I feel good-how about you, dj?
:)


Doo-ing well thank you. I am sure if you look around a bit you'd see a coyote! They are everywhere.
Hopefully you are having time to go out and have a good time!
Where is this disturbance going? Looks like the low affecting the Northeast should help push this through Florida sometime tomorrow. Going to have the whole night to hang out and really get blobby. Should Continue on a general ESE pattern and end up just north of the Bahamas. Gonna have awhile to hang out over open water and then get a drink from the Gulf stream possibly. And not to mention shear that is more conducive. I'll believe it when the NHC break out the yellow alert crayon.
Quoting 361. beell:



If you're a weather geek, you might say this man-made construct of statistically notable 0-6 km shear values are beneficial to the development of supercells.


Must be nice being a weather geek . . . . I'm just a regular, one-of-a-millon, run-of-the-mill, dime-a-dozen, garden-variety geek.

Statistically speaking - I am definitely within the normal distribution
Consistant



366. beell
The mid-range tropical tickle potential off the US east coast appears to be initially extra-tropical. An increasingly negative-tilt upper trough providing good diffluence aloft and subsequent development of a surface low. Certainly looks to have a decent chance of achieving marginal tropical storm or sub-tropical storm status over the gulf stream. The ECMWF keeps the surface low under the diffluence and farther off the coast-which makes some sense.

Some tilting with height ADDED: of the circulations to the northwest of the trough axes (yes, that is the plural of axis-i didn't make the rules!) at the surface, mid, and upper levels in this evening's 18Z GFS-valid next weekend-ish. Standard disclaimer regarding 10 day forecasts applies.


Both frames from the 05/22 18Z GFS @ 111 hrs-10 m winds, mslp (left), 200 mb heights, winds (right)
While possible tropical development is going to be fun to follow, these storms today just absolutely exploded in coverage and intensity. Next week is going to be very bad. Worst stretch of severe weather in some time coming; going to steal the show over the next seven days and possibly beyond. Big uptick in severe weather coming. Rain totals going to be a big story going through May and June. Many of these areas have already had enough and need a break.
18z GFS takes the subtropical or tropical storm up the the East Coast.
GFS ensembles.
I can't wait to start reading live data from HH flights!
Gulf Stream is very warm, never know how fast these systems can intensify.
Significant tornado SW of Big Spring, TX a few minutes ago:



Parent tornado looks to have been accompanied by an anticyclonic tornado briefly:



Supercell is now cycling.

Dryline bulge FTW.
Tornado warnings all the way from South Dakota to Texas on severestudios
Fort McMurray fire update.

Image (and some info) courtesy of Alberta Agriculture and Wildfire: Fort McMurray Area Update as of May 22, 3pm



Notables:
The Fort McMurray wildfire remains out of control. It is estimated to cover 522,892 hectares, including 741 hectares in Saskatchewan. There are 17 additional fires in Alberta.

There are 1,880 firefighters, 104 helicopters, 295 pieces of heavy equipment and 29 air tankers currently battling the fires (all 18).

ATCO employees are on the ground restoring critical utility infrastructure.
Gas and electricity service has been restored to about 90 per cent of undamaged structures in Fort McMurray.

Oil sands companies losing up to $50 million a day as fires rage: analysts
(cRRKampen, I know your reaction already . . . . )

Things are looking up - but residents still won't be allowed to return until June 1st.
Quoting 373. yonzabam:

Tornado warnings all the way from South Dakota to Texas on severestudios


Most of those are severe thunderstorm warnings. Watches stretch across the high plains. Only tornado warnings at the moment are in NW Texas.
Quoting 371. Climate175:

Gulf Stream is very warm, never know how fast these systems can intensify.




Did this new wave off Africa just get plotted in the last hour or so?
Quoting 376. redwagon:





Did this new wave off Africa just get plotted in the last hour or so?

Yep
Quoting 376. redwagon:





Did this new wave off Africa just get plotted in the last hour or so?
Yes, I usually don't start looking at that until July though.
Where this thing goes is the question If the ridge is strong the it could go into the GOM, but right now it looks to be weaker so anywhere from the gulf coast to the east coast should watch for this
Quoting 380. James1981cane:

Where this thing goes is the question If the ridge is strong the it could go into the GOM, but right now it looks to be weaker so anywhere from the gulf coast to the east coast should watch for this
Nothing there yet to watch so don't worry to much.
Why does this site lock up my phone every time I log in?
Tropical wave is over the central tropical Atlantic with axis
approximately extending from 10N38W to 01N40W and moving W at 10
kt. The wave coincides with a 700 mb trough and associated
relative vorticity aloft in the vicinity of the wave axis from
05N to 08N. Saharan Air Layer and CIRA layer precipitable water
imagery from the surface to 850 mb show low moisture in the way
environment that along with strong deep layer wind shear hinder
convection at the time.

Tropical wave is over the far SE Caribbean with axis
approximately extending from 14N61W to 04N61W and moving W at 15
kt. CIRA layer precipitable water imagery from the surface to
850 mb show moderate moisture in its environment supporting
showers S of Granada and adjacent W and E waters. Further
convection is being hindered in part by strong deep layer wind
shear in the region.

same old..............


Benjamin Franklin's chart of the Gulf Stream, made with his cousin in 1786. Click map to expand.

Quoting 382. Gearsts:

Nothing there yet to watch so don't worry to much.


I know I was saying if something forms
Published on May 20, 2016

Precipitation (falling rain and snow) is our fresh water reservoir in the sky and is fundamental to life on Earth. This video shows the most detailed and worldwide view of rain and snowfall ever created and uses satellite measurements from the Global Precipitation Measurement Core Observatory, or GPM, a joint mission between NASA and the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA).

Tracking precipitation from space with satellites provides information of where, when, and how much it rains and snows anywhere in the world and gives insight into the behavior of our weather, climate, and ecological systems.

To download near real-time global precipitation data visit: http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/deta...

For more information on GPM visit: http://pmm.nasa.gov/GPM

This video is an abridged 2-D version of a Science On a Sphere production, a film that is projected onto a spherical screen developed by NOAA. On this platform, audiences can view the film from any side of the sphere and can see any part of Earth. The film concludes with near real-time global precipitation data from GPM, which is provided to Science On a Sphere roughly six hours after the observation.

To download this movie formatted for a spherical screen, visit NOAA's official Science On a Sphere website below:
· Narrated film: http://sos.noaa.gov/Datasets/dataset....
· Near real-time global precipitation data: http://sos.noaa.gov/Datasets/dataset....

Credit: NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center/Joy Ng
Music credit: ‘Tides’ by Ben Niblett and Jon Cotton, ‘Developing Over Time’ by Ben Niblett and Jon Cotton from the KillerTracks catalog.

This video is public domain and along with other supporting visualizations can be downloaded from the Scientific Visualization Studio at: http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/deta...





Quoting 312. Sfloridacat5:

More likely a Memorial Day heat wave for the East Coast. But I'm not sure I'd want to get in the water from the Mid Atlantic northward.

Water temperature at Atlantic City, New Jersey is 56 degrees. That will give you hypothermia pretty quickly without a wet-suit.
'

Brisk. I remember those years, watching the water temps on Channel 2's revolving met gauges.

(I also remember "Nicky and Phil, you're next." You gotta be a local from the 1980's to remember that little stunt. :))
I was just looking at a few of the echo tops in that cluster and some are hovering at 59,000 feet pushing 90+ kg/m2 of vertically integrated liquid. These are beasts to say the very least. Unbelievable.

Quoting 372. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Significant tornado SW of Big Spring, TX a few minutes ago:



Parent tornado looks to have been accompanied by an anticyclonic tornado briefly:



Supercell is now cycling.

Dryline bulge FTW.
Well our long-awaited surface low offshore of North Carolina is finally here but does not look impressive tropically-speaking. However computer models are hinting at some development northeast of the Bahamas next week just prior to the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season, more details on my latest blog post.
391. vis0

Quoting 385. BaltimoreBrian:



Benjamin Franklin's chart of the Gulf Stream, made with his cousin in 1786. Click map to expand.


vis0 sez resized for ...
Quoting 390. NCHurricane2009:

Well our long-awaited surface low offshore of North Carolina is finally here but does not look impressive tropically-speaking. However computer models are hinting at some development northeast of the Bahamas next week just prior to the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season, more details on my latest blog post.
Could it be possible if the low coming off the United States become at least subtropical.
393. vis0
  • SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
    Watch for Nebraska,South Dakota. Expires at 300 AM CDT

  • SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
    Watch for Oklahoma,Texas. Expires at 300 AM CDT

  • SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
    Watch for Nebraska,South Dakota. Expires at 300 AM CDT

  • TORNADO Watch
    for Texas. Expires at MIDNIGHT CDT 
  •  
  • SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
    Watch for Kansas,Nebraska. Expires at MIDNIGHT CDT

  • SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
    Watch for North Dakota,South Dakota. Expires at 100 AM CDT

  • TORNADO Watch for
    Kansas,Oklahoma,Texas. Expires at 1000 PM CDT
Quoting 392. HurricaneAndre:

Could it be possible if the low coming off the United States become at least subtropical.



Yes it is possible We just I have to wait and see I would give it a 30% chance of development
Completely forgot when mentioning the Joplin EF5 tornado anniversary, but May 22nd marks the 101st anniversary of the only other Cascade Range volcano to erupt in the 20th century aside from Mt St Helens. Lassen Peak, California [Link]
Quoting 381. BaltimoreBrian:

Lake Mead drops to record low: What now? (with video)


Besides the Washington state pipeline, there is a push to run a pipeline from Alaska to California to pump glacier water to California. This is water that Alaska just loses to the Ocean.
Got some malware from the main blog. Probably via some advertisement.
Quoting 358. 19N81W:

Last few years please go away now we need rain




Do you actually want the rain or is all this talk simply a PC way of saying you want a hurricane?
Quoting 382. Gearsts:

Nothing there yet to watch so don't worry to much.


It's all going to Louisiana, because I know everything.
400. vis0
SEL7

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 197
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1000 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA
CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 1000 PM
UNTIL 300 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THIS REPLACES TORNADO WATCH 191. SEVERE-THUNDERSTORM RISK
WILL PERSIST FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...WITH DAMAGING GUSTS AND SPORADIC LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST OF IMPERIAL NEBRASKA TO 30 MILES NORTH OF PIERRE SOUTH
DAKOTA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 191. WATCH NUMBER 191 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT
AFTER 1000 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 190...WW 192...WW 193...WW
194
...WW 195...WW 196...

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25030.


...EDWARDS STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 197

VALID 230405Z - 230540Z

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW IML
TO 20 ENE MHN TO 25 N ANW TO 40 SSW 9V9 TO 10 WSW 9V9 TO 45 SSW
PIR TO 30 NNW PIR.

..DIAL..05/23/16

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...ABR...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WS 197

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

NEC009-017-029-041-063-085-103-111-113-117-135-17 1-230540-

NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BLAINE BROWN CHASE
CUSTER FRONTIER HAYES
KEYA PAHA LINCOLN LOGAN
MCPHERSON PERKINS THOMAS
$$


SDC065-075-085-119-230540-

SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

HUGHES JONES LYMAN
SULLY
$$


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
401. vis0
SEL6

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 196
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
845 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 845 PM
UNTIL 300 AM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...SUPERCELLS AND OTHER NEIGHBORING STORMS HAVE AGGREGATED
INTO A LARGE CLUSTER ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION.
A COLD POOL IS INCREASINGLY EVIDENT IN WEST TEXAS MESONET DATA IN
THE TRAILING AIR MASS...AND AN MCV ALSO APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING.
THESE FACTORS...ALONG WITH OTHERS COVERED IN SPC MESOSCALE
DISCUSSION 684...SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR THE COMPLEX TO SHIFT DOWN THE
RED RIVER VALLEY AND PRODUCE OCCASIONALLY DAMAGING WIND...AS WELL AS
SOME HAIL.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST
SOUTHWEST OF ALTUS OKLAHOMA TO 35 MILES EAST OF WICHITA FALLS
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 190...WW 191...WW
192
...WW 193...WW 194...WW 195...

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28025.


...EDWARDS





STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 196

VALID 230425Z - 230540Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..DIAL..05/23/16

ATTN...WFO...OUN...

&&

STATUS REPORT FOR WS 196

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

OKC031-033-055-057-065-067-075-137-141-230540-

OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

COMANCHE COTTON GREER
HARMON JACKSON JEFFERSON
KIOWA STEPHENS TILLMAN
$$


TXC009-023-077-155-197-275-485-487-230540-

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY
FOARD HARDEMAN KNOX
WICHITA WILBARGER
$$


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$


Quoting 399. KoritheMan:



It's all going to Louisiana, because I know everything.
And that's why your my sensei.
Looks like the 00Z GFS shows the ridge a bit stronger has it moving in the north eastern Bahamas then into eastern florida then it stalls on the east coast of florida the ridge determines everything we have to wait and see
Quoting 405. Gearsts:





that's after it stalls over eastern florida
The gfs has this like a Andrew katrina kinda track it goes through florida in the gulf that's what I predict the ridge I suspect will be strong
Narrowly misses the Gulf on the 0z GFS run; ridge moves east just a little too late. It gets picked up by a significant shortwave diving out of southeastern Canada (which is typical before anyone says anything stupid about a trough being unprecedented in the summer). On the positive side, trough phasing + divergence = large hurricane east of the Carolinas. Eye candy. :D
Quoting 408. KoritheMan:

Narrowly misses the Gulf on the 0z GFS run; ridge moves east just a little too late. It gets picked up by a significant shortwave diving out of southeastern Canada (which is typical before anyone says anything stupid about a trough being unprecedented in the summer). On the positive side, trough phasing + divergence = large hurricane east of the Carolinas. Eye candy. :D

tHE RIDGE will be strong I think this will end up somewhere in the gulf
Quoting 409. James1981cane:


tHE RIDGE will be strong I think this will end up somewhere in the gulf


The ridge will likely be strong because it's nearly June; that part is obvious. Climatology doesn't really favor sharp left hooks from Florida to the Gulf Coast this early in the year, though. Which of course doesn't mean it can't happen.
To highlight the uncertainty at play here:





Realistically, either of these solutions could verify. Neither one are particularly bad.
Also, nipping this in the bud now since the inevitable doomcasting is thusly imminent: even if this hypothetical Bonnie successfully enters the Gulf, it's still early June, and conditions are still unfavorable. It's not going to be a significant hurricane for anybody; in fact, it has an abundantly higher chance of reaching hurricane strength east of the Gulf, so keep your pants on. The Gulf isn't magical because it produced Katrina.
Quoting 410. KoritheMan:



The ridge will likely be strong because it's nearly June; that part is obvious. Climatology doesn't really favor sharp left hooks from Florida to the Gulf Coast this early in the year, though. Which of course doesn't mean it can't happen.


I think this thing will end up in the gulf maybe max strength low end tropical storm
Quoting 413. James1981cane:



I think this thing will end up in the gulf maybe max strength low end tropical storm
There is nothing yet to track!
Quoting 414. Gearsts:

There is nothing yet to track!


Yea but no matter what we will see at least a disturbance so that's what I mean
Quoting 415. James1981cane:



Yea but no matter what we will see at least a disturbance so that's what I mean


We should see a disturbance. Talk like a meteorologist. :P
Quoting 416. KoritheMan:



We should see a disturbance. Talk like a meteorologist. :P


Well The NAM model doesn't really show anything but something trying to form in the gulf and the CMC 00Z shows two systems trying to overpower the other one in the gulf and one on the east coast of florida models suggestmoving toward florida and gulf
Quoting 417. James1981cane:



Well The NAM model doesn't really show anything but something trying to form in the gulf and the CMC 00Z shows two systems trying to overpower the other one in the gulf and one on the east coast of florida models suggestmoving toward florida and gulf


That's because the NAM is a mesoscale model. It's not a tropical model.
Quoting 418. KoritheMan:



That's because the NAM is a mesoscale model. It's not a tropical model.


Sorry I meant the NavGem
The Euro model hows the disturbance in the GOM at 192 Hours interesting the ridge is very strong
Quoting 420. James1981cane:

The Euro model hows the disturbance in the GOM at 192 Hours interesting the ridge is very strong


What? There's barely a pressure bulge in the sea level pressure fields at that point; definitely not a Gulf disturbance. It actually ends up in GA/SA.
Wha
Quoting 421. KoritheMan:



What? There's barely a pressure bulge in the sea level pressure fields at that point; definitely not a Gulf disturbance. It actually ends up in GA/SA.


There was lowering pressure in the gulf !!!!
Quoting 422. James1981cane:

Wha

There was lowering pressure in the gulf !!!!


How long have you been reading models? >_>
Quoting 374. daddyjames:

(cRRKampen, I know your reaction already . . . . )



Moving on... I'd hate to repeat :)
Quoting 423. KoritheMan:



How long have you been reading models? >_>

well I have been tracking hurricanes since I was 12 I'm 19 but I just started reading models so I'm kinda new to it
Quoting 425. James1981cane:


well I have been tracking hurricanes since I was 12 I'm 19 but I just started reading models so I'm kinda new to it


What parameter were you using when you said the ECMWF showed it in the Gulf?
I was using the MLSP and Anomaly under the upper dynamics category
Quoting 427. James1981cane:

I was using the MLSP and Anomaly under the upper dynamics category


k, cool. Then what do you think led to the discrepancy?
What I think I am seeing on the models is that actually there are two disturbances one near cuba and one in the south eastern Bahamas . They are fighting for energy one goes into the gulf and the other strengthens which causes the GOM disturbance to get sucked in to the one headed for eastern florida then out to sea if I am right we have two watch which one overpowers the other
about a week ago my character posted around june 1 we will be dealing with some sort of sheared trough from nicaraq. to and through the bahamas. this prediction has not changed much.
Not great if you want a warming MDR.
thanks for postin the gfs that would be bad news for our island friends in the nw carib.
melbourne nws is talking "While the GFS and ECMWF both continue to show a piece of
the upper level low hanging back near the Bahamas this weekend,
considerable uncertainty remains in regards to the expected
evolution of any surface-related feature. The GFS remains the
stronger of the two solutions with a closed surface low moving
toward the Peninsula on Sunday while the ECMWF keeps the system as
an open wave (though it too tries to close off a surface circulation
early next week)."
Ok the GFS has this consistently hitting near Georgia florida border (note every run it seems like the ridge is stronger) which should mean this disturbance if something forms should hit from Georgia to the gulf coast so we will keep a eye on it that's what my local news said
439. MahFL
Quoting 412. KoritheMan:

The Gulf isn't magical because it produced Katrina.


Oh come on Kori, you it's going to be DOOM !
Quoting 438. James1981cane:

Ok the GFS has this consistently hitting near Georgia florida border (note every run it seems like the ridge is stronger) which should mean this disturbance if something forms should hit from Georgia to the gulf coast so we will keep a eye on it that's what my local news said


I'm a little confused why it's northward ho in the models with this, especially given that the ridge was much stronger on all the models in the 0z suite. My guess is that the 500 mb pattern isn't telling the whole story; there's likely a trough of some sort below that.
Quoting 433. Gearsts:

Not great if you want a warming MDR.



I don't. Bring on the homegrown stuff. :P
When was the last time Georgia's been hit by a Tropical Storm??
Quoting 442. JrWeathermanFL:

When was the last time Georgia's been hit by a Tropical Storm??


Tammy in 2005.
Quoting 439. MahFL:



Oh come on Kori, you it's going to be DOOM !


Audrey's country sister Bonnie may live out in the boonies, but she sure knows how to put on a good show.

*cue water/bread panic*
445. MahFL
Quoting 383. Kenfa03:

Why does this site lock up my phone every time I log in?


The page has 14 scripts running, that's probably why.
Good Morning. Active day today in parts of Conus:




Very complex looking pattern (and severe weather potential) between the position of the jet and cut-off lows today:




Quoting 443. KoritheMan:



Tammy in 2005.


I thought Tammy technically made landfall in Atlantic Beach, FL. Close enough to GA though.
Quoting 408. KoritheMan:

Narrowly misses the Gulf on the 0z GFS run; ridge moves east just a little too late. It gets picked up by a significant shortwave diving out of southeastern Canada (which is typical before anyone says anything stupid about a trough being unprecedented in the summer). On the positive side, trough phasing + divergence = large hurricane east of the Carolinas. Eye candy. :D
So possibly a Captain trough saves the U.S again type of event. Keeping in mind this is still a week out.
In terms of the global tropics, things are quiet with the exception of lots of cloudiness in the Western Pacific and a good looking complex, again, in the Indian Ocean: (to the East of Africa)



And finally, while the El Nino is rapidly dissipating, because of the time lag (with the atmosphere slower to respond), shear is still very high across the tropical Atlantic (as normal for the month of May).


Quoting 449. Geoboy645:

So possibly a Captain trough saves the U.S again type of event. Keeping in mind this is still a week out.
I'm tired of the rain and if we add anymore we could be looking at flooding so it can get kicked out to sea as far as I'm concerned.
The billionaire, who called global warming a hoax, warns of its dire effects in his company’s application to build a sea wall.

Donald Trump says he is “not a big believer in global warming.” He has called it “a total hoax,” “bullshit” and “pseudoscience.”

But he is also trying to build a sea wall designed to protect one of his golf courses from “global warming and its effects.”

The New York billionaire is applying for permission to erect a coastal protection works to prevent erosion at his seaside golf resort, Trump International Golf Links & Hotel Ireland, in County Clare.

A permit application for the wall, filed by Trump International Golf Links Ireland and reviewed by POLITICO, explicitly cites global warming and its consequences — increased erosion due to rising sea levels and extreme weather this century — as a chief justification for building the structure.


Link
GEOS-5 pushed the possible storm back in time from first closing off at 201hrs instead of 138hrs. Trends a little stronger over the Bahamas again..
Happy national turtle day! Out 'till later!
Ya just a little bit of shear
Is 50 to 70 knots normal for May 23?
Quoting 451. weathermanwannabe:

And finally, while the El Nino is rapidly dissipating, because of the time lag (with the atmosphere slower to respond), shear is still very high across the tropical Atlantic (as normal for the month of May).



457. MahFL
Quoting 456. 19N81W:

Ya just a little bit of shear
Is 50 to 70 knots normal for May 23?



Yes it's normal, remember you only get 1/2 a storm on ave forming in June. The other months are of course more active.
and the weekly....or should i say weakly.....ENSO values are in...and the 3.4 region.....has plummeted to a 0.2 value......now i know this guy....who back in decemeber....said la nina values in june....he was laughed at....called a fool by one.....could he possibly be right.......ahhhhh...if he is....it was just a lucky guess...a hunch.......a fantasy come to life.....of course...only time will tell
Quoting 454. Skyepony:

GEOS-5 pushed the possible storm back in time from first closing off at 201hrs instead of 138hrs. Trends a little stronger over the Bahamas again..



ECMWF does the same (essentially) has it a little closer to the coast.
We'll have to wait a bit longer to see if/what happens.

OK and Texas seem to be the center of action today. To all of us "High Plains Drifters" - stay safe.

Have a fantastic day everyone.
Quoting 456. 19N81W:

Ya just a little bit of shear
Is 50 to 70 knots normal for May 23?

Certainly pretty normal for an El Nino flow pattern in May with the elongated Pacific Jet moving across Mexico and parts of Central America into the Western Caribbean:








Quoting 448. JrWeathermanFL:



I thought Tammy technically made landfall in Atlantic Beach, FL. Close enough to GA though.


I don't even remember Tammy, that's how many storms we had to track that year. I'll have to find the last storm to hit Georgia, I know the last hurricane was David in 79
Quoting 414. Gearsts:

There is nothing yet to track!
Right. Personally I won't take anything seriously until AndreBrooks transforms into HurricaneAndre. That's the warning sign I pay attention to.
We're at 7 days 14 hours and counting...till the Atlantic Hurricane Season Starts.

This is Atlantic Launch Control.

Quoting 362. daddyjames:



Doo-ing well thank you. I am sure if you look around a bit you'd see a coyote! They are everywhere.
Hopefully you are having time to go out and have a good time!


We have coyotes in College Park MD but the population is not large. I just see one every once in awhile and it's probably the same one. They are a very adaptable species and I'm surprised there aren't more.
Foxes are abundant here and of course deer.





Varying models about a possible Subtropical/Tropical Storm Bonnie.
CMC showing a possible Colin and Danielle
Quoting 462. Llamaluvr:

Right. Personally I won't take anything seriously until AndreBrooks transforms into HurricaneAndre. That's the warning sign I pay attention to.
Did someone call me. Yeah I been changed to HurricaneAndre on my phone, just forgot to change over on my laptop.
Quoting 463. Patrap:

We're at 7 days 14 hours and counting...till the Atlantic Hurricane Season Starts.

This is Atlantic Launch Control.



"Main Engines on standby by, Engines on standby"
with today EL nino update its safe too say that EL nino is now %100 gone and its safe too say that we are now at %100 at neutral now we need too see where things go from here

18MAY2016 24.3 0.2 26.9-0.1 28.1 0.2 29.4 0.6
I am not putting too much faith into a possible storm around June 1st in the Gulf or Atlantic near Florida just due to the current shear levels (unless there is a drastic drop).  You will notice that we recently had several complexes in the Gulf that soaked Florida with rain and t-storms but basically "flew" across the Gulf and Florida into the Atlantic along the fast flow.  Just my personal opinion that sheer will still be too high a week or so out (I could be wrong) as you are talking about an average 30-40 knot drop over the course of about 9 days:

GFS - US - SL Pres/Prec - 9day
I'm personally rooting against a system in that region as I leave Thursday on a 4 day cruise to Nassau.
Link
My latest tropical Update on the potential subtropical to even tropical storm off the southeast coast this coming weekend,
NASA Visible Earth - Early Breakup of the Beaufort Sea Ice

"Every spring, the expansive pack of sea ice that coats the Beaufort Sea during the winter starts to thin and break up when the spring sunlight arrives and temperatures rise. Normally, that breakup does not reach full swing until late May. In 2016, much of the Beaufort Sea's ice started breaking up by mid-April.

"It really is quite remarkable," noted Walter Meier, an ice specialist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. "There is always fracturing of the ice, but it seems to have become more prevalent and more widespread in recent years. This region used to be mostly multi-year ice, which is quite a bit thicker. Now, most of the Beaufort is seasonal, first-year ice. The thinner ice is weaker and more easily broken up by the winds."

In 2016, unusually warm temperatures during the first few months of the year set the stage for the early breakup. In April, a high-pressure system producing strong southeasterly winds parked itself over the Beaufort Sea and sent chunks of ice swirling in a clock-wise direction in the Beaufort Gyre."

See also :
- NOAA - Arctic set for record-breaking melt this summer
- Beaufort final update - Neven's Arctic Sea Ice Blog
getting warmer

Quoting 470. DaronB:

I'm personally rooting against a system in that region as I leave Thursday on a 4 day cruise to Nassau.
That's when they always happen.Everytime you are either about to go on vacation or are on vacation.
Quoting 473. bigwes6844:

getting warmer




Now if shear was minimal then Florida and/or overall SE Coast could be in the cross hairs if models are correct.
Quoting 412. KoritheMan:

Also, nipping this in the bud now since the inevitable doomcasting is thusly imminent: even if this hypothetical Bonnie successfully enters the Gulf, it's still early June, and conditions are still unfavorable. It's not going to be a significant hurricane for anybody; in fact, it has an abundantly higher chance of reaching hurricane strength east of the Gulf, so keep your pants on. The Gulf isn't magical because it produced Katrina.

Yep. And you could also argue, that the Gulf didn't produce Katrina since she was Katrina upon entering the Gulf.
84 hours:



108 Hours:

Early Gulf-Formed Hurricanes Can Be Deadly

“Gulf-formed storms have three nasty characteristics besides forming close to us: they form early in the season, their forward speed often accelerates as they make landfall and, most troublesome of all, they often intensify as they make landfall.”

Read more here Link
- Africa Food Crisis 2016: El Niño Drought To Make More Than 50 Million Go Hungry, UN Says - I.B.Times, on 05/23/16. (w/ video)

El Nino has caused severe droughts in some regions of the continent, especially in the Horn of Africa and southern Africa. Globally, the weather phenomenon is stretching resources thin in Central America, South America, the Caribbean and Southeast Asia, according to the Science and Development Network, a nonprofit science and technology news site.
"The collective impact of the El Niño phenomenon has created one of the world’s biggest disasters for millions of people, yet this crisis is receiving little attention," Stephen O'Brien, the United Nations' humanitarian chief, said.
The affected populations include millions of children globally who are or are likely to become malnourished from the droughts. The U.N. expects that food supplies in affected areas will largely run out by July and the crisis will continue until its peak between December and next April.


See also : - El Niño and fighting leave 80 million in food crisis - SciDev.net, on 05/23/16.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 452. washingtonian115:

I'm tired of the rain and if we add anymore we could be looking at flooding so it can get kicked out to sea as far as I'm concerned.


Park the low over the Orlando area. We have had some beneficial rain lately, but we could use plenty more, especially with the many hot, dry, breezy days we've been having to dry everything up.

I guess we could see a scenario like TS Beryl 2012, otherwise, I think it will skim the coast of the Carolina's or be out to sea entirely (assuming a system actually forms).
Quoting 474. washingtonian115:

That's when they always happen.Everytime you are either about to go on vacation or are on vacation.


I managed to get through my annual bahamas fishing trip without a tropical threat from the GFS (reliably
forecasting ten of the past two systems). Did see a waterspout but those are common down there.

I'm glad these guys don't do the trip in September and not just for TC risk.

test
The Real War on Science
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