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Arctic sea ice bottoms out near all-time low; August was Earth's 4th - 8th warmest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 6:11 PM GMT on September 17, 2011

Arctic sea ice extent hit its minimum on September 9 this year, falling to its second lowest value since satellite measurements began in 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center . More than one third (35%) of the Arctic sea ice was missing this summer, compared to the 1979 - 2000 average. This is an area about the size of the Mediterranean Sea. The 2011 sea ice minimum was very close to the all-time record low set in 2007; in fact, the University of Bremen rated the 2011 loss the greatest on record. For the fourth consecutive year, and fourth time in recorded history, ice-free navigation was possible in the Arctic along the coast of Canada (the Northwest Passage), and along the coast of Russia (the Northeast Passage.) Mariners have been attempting to sail these waters since 1497.

While the record low sea ice year of 2007 was marked by a very unusual 1-in-20 year combination of weather conditions that favored ice loss (including clearer skies, favorable wind patterns, and warm temperatures), 2011's weather patterns were much closer to average. The fact we pretty much tied the record for most sea ice loss this year despite this rather ordinary weather is a result of the fact that large amounts of thicker, multi-year ice has melted or been flushed out of the Arctic since 2007. As a result of the loss of this old, thick ice, both 2010 and now 2011 set new records for the lowest volume of sea ice in the Arctic, according the University of Washington PIOMAS model. Given the very thin ice now covering most of the Arctic, we can expect truly dramatic sea ice loss the next time 1-in-10 year or 1-in-20 year warmth and sunshine invades the Arctic. We are definitely on pace to see the Arctic virtually sea ice-free in summer by 2030, as predicted by several leading Arctic sea ice scientists. I expect we'll see more than half of the Arctic ice gone and the North Pole liquid instead of solid by the summer of 2020, and probably sooner.


Figure 1. Arctic sea ice extent in 2011 (blue line) compared to the record low year of 2007 (dashed green line) and average (thick grey line.) Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center .

When was the last time the Arctic was this ice-free?
We can be sure the Northwest Passage was never open for ice-free navigation--particularly ice-free navigation for multiple years in a row--between 1900 and 2000, as we have detailed ice edge records from ships (Walsh and Chapman, 2001). It is very unlikely the Passage was open between 1497 and 1900, since this spanned a cold period in the northern latitudes known as "The Little Ice Age". Ships periodically attempted the Passage and were foiled during this period, and the native Inuit people have no historical tales of the Passage being navigable at any time in the past.

The Northwest passage may have been open multiple years in a row for ice-free navigation at some period during the Medieval Warm Period, between 1000 and 1300 AD. A better candidate was the period 6,000 - 8,500 years ago, when the Earth's orbital variations brought more sunlight to the Arctic in summer than at present. Funder and Kjaer (2007) found extensive systems of wave generated beach ridges along the North Greenland coast that suggested the Arctic Ocean was ice-free in the summer for over 1,000 years during that period. Prior to that, the next likely time was during the last inter-glacial period, 120,000 years ago. Arctic temperatures then were 2 - 3°C higher than present-day temperatures, and sea levels were 4-6 meters higher.

However, it is possible that the recent summer low-ice conditions in the Arctic are unprecedented for the past 800,000 years, according to a 2011 press release by Project CLAMER, a European group dedicated to climate change and European marine ecosystem research. They found that a tiny species of plankton called Neodenticula seminae that went extinct in the North Atlantic 800,000 years ago has become a resident of the Atlantic again, having drifted from the Pacific through the Arctic Ocean thanks to dramatically reduced polar ice. The 1999 discovery represents "the first evidence of a trans-Arctic migration in modern times" related to plankton, according to the UK-based Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science, whose researchers warn that "such a geographical shift could transform the biodiversity and functioning of the Arctic and North Atlantic marine ecosystems."

It is possible we'll have a better idea of historical ice-free conditions in the Arctic in the next few years. A new technique that examines organic compounds left behind in Arctic sediments by diatoms that live in sea ice give hope that a detailed record of sea ice extent extending back to the end of the Ice Age 12,000 years ago may be possible (Belt et al., 2007). The researchers are studying sediments along the Northwest Passage in hopes of being able to determine when the Passage was open during the past 12,000 years.

References
Belt, S.T., G. Masse, S.J. Rowland, M. Poulin, C. Michel, and B. LeBlanc, "A novel chemical fossil of palaeo sea ice: IP25", Organic Geochemistry, Volume 38, Issue 1, January 2007, Pages 16-27.

Funder, S. and K.H. Kjaer, 2007, "A sea-ice free Arctic Ocean?", Geophys. Res. Abstr. 9 (2007), p. 07815.

Walsh, J.E and W.L.Chapman, 2001, "Twentieth-century sea ice variations from observational data", Annals of Glaciology, 33, Number 1, January 2001 , pp. 444-448.

August 2011: Earth's 4th - 8th warmest on record
August 2011 was the globe's 8th warmest August on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated August the 4th warmest on record. Land temperatures during August were the 2nd warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 12th warmest on record. Ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean's Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the coast of Africa to the coast of Central America between 10°N and 20°N latitude, were 0.8°C above average, the 4rd warmest August on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 6th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). For more details on global extremes during August, see the details from weather historian Christopher C. Burt.


Figure 2. Departure of temperature from average for August 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Maria hits Newfoundland
Hurricane Maria hit Newfoundland, Canada yesterday afternoon near 3:30 pm local time as a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. However, the hurricane's strongest winds were over water, and the storm brought very little in the way of strong winds or heavy rain to the island. Cape Race at the southeast tip of Newfoundland saw sustained winds of 41 mph, gusting to 54 mph at 3:30 pm Friday as the center of the storm passed. Winds in the capital of St. John's peaked at 37 mph, gusting to 46 mph, at 10:30 am local time. Maria's strike makes this Newfoundland's second consecutive year with a hurricane strike, something that has never occurred since hurricane record keeping began in 1851. Last year, Hurricane Igor killed one person on Newfoundland, and damage exceeded $100 million, making Igor the most damaging tropical cyclone in Newfoundland history.


Figure 3. Satellite image of Hurricane Maria taken at 12:15 pm EDT September 16, 2011. At the time, Maria was a Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds. Image credit: NOAA Environmental Visualization Lab.

Invest 97L
For the first day since August 18, we don't have a named storm in the Atlantic. However, we have a new area to watch. A tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa Friday and is now 300 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands is moving west at 10 - 15 mph. The wave has developed a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity and spin, and has been designated Invest 97L by NHC. Wind shear as diagnosed by the SHIPS model is light, 5 - 10 knots, and is predicted to stay light to moderate through Tuesday morning. Ocean temperatures are 27.5°C, one degree above the threshold typically needed for a tropical storm to spin up. Water vapor satellite images show 97L is embedded in a moist environment.

Most of the models develop 97L into a tropical depression by Tuesday; NHC gave the disturbance a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday in their 2 pm Tropical Weather Outlook. 97L should head west or west-northwest towards the Lesser Antilles over the next six days, and could arrive in the islands as early as Friday--though most of the models predict a later arrival. It is likely 97L will encounter the usual troubles storms this year have had with wind shear and dry air on the long trek across the Atlantic.

I'll have a new post on Monday, when I'll discuss the long-range hurricane outlook for the rest of September.

Jeff Masters

Climate Change Climate Summaries Sea Ice Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Sorry to hear it. We had another 4/10th of an inch today here south of Houston. And I see parts of Texas south of you (some near Corpus, some near Victoria) with a good 2-3 inches today. So you just are getting unlucky.

I do think we have one more good day of moisture for the southern part of Texas tomorrow so maybe tomorrow will be your day. Rain chances will definitely go down by the end of the week.

Quoting bohonkweatherman:
95 sunny with heat index over 100 here south of Austin, again not a drop of rain, showers are isolated and scattered unfortunately. Dryer air moving into Texas
Quoting Neapolitan:
Down one millibar:

AL, 98, 2011091900, , BEST, 0, 119N, 371W, 25, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 225, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,



geting stronger
97L still not having its stuff together at 8 p.m.

Interesting one to watch though.
1005. JLPR2
Quoting Neapolitan:
Down one millibar:

AL, 98, 2011091900, , BEST, 0, 119N, 371W, 25, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 225, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,


Strengthening slowly and getting closer to TD status.
Quoting JLPR2:


Strengthening slowly and getting closer to TD status.


98L don't play to the roller caster please.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
ORANGE CIRCLE
We interrupt regular global warming, tropics, and agw posts for a breaking tropical news story. Bob,?
INVEST Ninety-Eight now has a Thirty Percent Chance Of Developing Into A TC Within Forty-Eight Hours.

Sorry, my number keys are either typing spaces or something else.

It's still there.
My bet it survives.
1010. JLPR2
From barely developing it, SHIPS now brings 98L to a 65mph storm at 13.4N 57.9W.

Link
Quoting Chicklit:
97L still not having its stuff together at 8 p.m.

Interesting one to watch though.


97L has been deactivated.
Quoting JLPR2:
From barely developing, SHIPS now brings 98L to a 65mph storm at 13.4N 57.9W.

Link


the models are more optimistic than 6 hrs. ago.
Quoting JLPR2:
From barely developing, SHIPS now brings 98L to a 65mph storm at 13.4N 57.9W.

Link


extremly interesting
Quoting Chicklit:


the models are more optimistic than 6 hrs. ago.


Good
Completely random, but still about this season's storms so...
2011 Preliminary Damages Per Storm
1- Irene (BLEEP)
2- Lee >$250,000,000
3- Arlene $223,400,000
4- Katia ~$157,000,000
5- Emily(lol) >$5,000,000
98L still has a long way to go.
will have to check back in a.m.
reading life of pi, finally!
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Completely random, but still about this season's storms so...
2011 Preliminary Damages Per Storm
1- Irene >$10,100,000,000
2- Lee >$250,000,000
3- Arlene $223,400,000
4- Katia ~$157,000,000
5- Emily(lol) >$5,000,000
I'm suprised Emily cost more than One U.S. Dollar.
1018. bird72
Alright folks, see this loop and go to 22 n, 66w, are my eyes or the ULL is developing in something tropical.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.ht ml
Quoting interstatelover7165:
I'm suprised Emily cost more than One U.S. Dollar.

LOL
But seriously. The damage is from the flooding it caused in SE Puerto Rico.
Quoting FortBendMan:
Sorry to hear it. We had another 4/10th of an inch today here south of Houston. And I see parts of Texas south of you (some near Corpus, some near Victoria) with a good 2-3 inches today. So you just are getting unlucky.

I do think we have one more good day of moisture for the southern part of Texas tomorrow so maybe tomorrow will be your day. Rain chances will definitely go down by the end of the week.

Most of Texas got very little rain it just is not me, a few areas did get good rain but those are few and far between, I have family all over Texas and no one received more than quarter of an inch all week.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Completely random, but still about this season's storms so...
2011 Preliminary Damages Per Storm
1- Irene >$10,100,000,000
2- Lee >$250,000,000
3- Arlene $223,400,000
4- Katia ~$157,000,000
5- Emily(lol) >$5,000,000


No! Don't post that! People will attack you and say that Irene was over-hyped and that those numbers are false!
1022. BDADUDE
Quoting Tazmanian:






43 is this right once you got ues too it
Must have been a lot of shrinkage involved in water that cold.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


No! Don't post that! People will attack you and say that Irene was over-hyped and that those numbers are false!

I BLEEPED Irene's damages. XD
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Completely random, but still about this season's storms so...
2011 Preliminary Damages Per Storm
1- Irene >$10,100,000,000
2- Lee >$250,000,000
3- Arlene $223,400,000
4- Katia ~$157,000,000
5- Emily(lol) >$5,000,000

Yea, that Lee number is very preliminary; I've heard numbers as high as $2 or $3 billion in Pennsylvania alone.
1026. ryang
Quoting JLPR2:
From barely developing it, SHIPS now brings 98L to a 65mph storm at 13.4N 57.9W.

Link


Westerly shear increasing at the end though...
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Most of Texas got very little rain it just is not me, a few areas did get good rain but those are few and far between, I have family all over Texas and no one received more than quarter of an inch all week.


I hope you get some rain soon. Where are you located? We got pretty good rains today and they say a 60-70% chance tomorrow. :)

LBAR Is best model so far on 98L~ Error in nm for Today's 12.6 & yesterday's 37.9 forecast.


Twin~ I don't get the scam. No one has been given any reimbursement for being sick from the dispersant & oil fumes. People are going to CO to detox, tests are finding the VOCs from the oil & dispersant pollution in their blood in high amounts. People are moving to get away from it to stay well with no compensation. Others just brought their kids to the gulf like the commercial said & ended up with them in the ICU..
Quoting Neapolitan:

Yea, that Lee number is very preliminary; I've heard numbers as high as $2 or $3 billion in Pennsylvania alone.

Could you give me a link to that?
Quoting Tazmanian:





it was fun water teamper was a vary nic 43 and i want swiming has well


This Florida girl does NOT go in water much below 90! BRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR

Too each his own!!!!! Celebrate the differences.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Yea, that Lee number is very preliminary; I've heard numbers as high as $2 or $3 billion in Pennsylvania alone.


Read that the total damages from flooding associated with Lee might be around 5.2 billion in the CONUS, most of which being in the NE. If so, Lee would almost tie Allison, and would be the 2nd most destructive TS to hit the USA. If that's the case, Lee and Irene will probably both be retired in 2012.
Quoting Landfall2004:


This Florida girl does NOT go in water much below 90! BRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR

Too each his own!!!!! Celebrate the differences.


hahahaha, I was thinking that if that didn't translate to something over 85F no way I go.
Quoting indianrivguy:


hahahaha, I was thinking that if that didn't translate to something over 85F no way I go.


Oops--never thought he was reporting a different temp. scale. Can't be C b/c 28C = 82F. I took it as 43F.
1035. beell
Quoting ryang:


Westerly shear increasing at the end though...


Same conclusion here, fwiw.

SW/W shear begins to ramp up as 98L nears 60W. In part to an upper level trough (axis indicated) backing into the central Caribbean. Between 96-120 hrs would be my guess for this system to attain some organization. The current upper level trough to its N should prohibit much development until then. Overall, the word "hostile" comes to mind. Butt who nose, may look different in 2-3 days.

09/18 18Z GFS 200mb @ 132hrs
Quoting bird72:
Alright folks, see this loop and go to 22 n, 66w, are my eyes or the ULL is developing in something tropical.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.ht ml



It's getting a little more moisture associated with it but the strong vorticity is still in the upper levels. Compare the 200mb (upper level vort here, then click on lower levels to compare. On 850mbvort (near the surface) you can see something there at the east end of Cuba, that is associated with the inverted trough east of FL & not the ULL your looking at.
Quoting pub123:
Translation = The planet is continuing to cool as it cycles through normal long-term patterns.

BTW - Only one agency that uses a separate set of algorithms, or in this case an algoreithm, was even close to the reading of the level of extent the good doctor sites. In fact, the arctic was adding areas the size of Manhattan many times a day about 10 days back.

You also have to remember many of these so-called "warmest" time periods are within the equipment's error thresholds and therefore meaningless.

Do you have evidence of this cooling? Here's a temperature graph showing otherwise (please note that this is actually from a denier site):

Uh-oh

P.S. -- Pay attention to the red 13-month running average trendline, not the order 3 polynomial trendline intended added just this month with no explanation.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
.


great game brother Cane... WOOT!!
Quoting Neapolitan:

Do you have evidence of this cooling? Here's a temperature chart (please note that this is actually from a denier site):

Uh-oh


Correct me if I am wrong... the south pole ice has been expanding for approx that last 10 years?
Quoting indianrivguy:


great game brother Cane... WOOT!!
WOOP WOOP! Went to the game with a bunch of friends, etc etc...game was intense. Loud as hell. Great game though...proud of them.

I'm pretty sure we'd be 2-0 if we had the full team out there when we were playing Maryland.
1043. JLPR2
Well now, models seem to be in pretty good agreement that 98L will affect the Lesser Antilles.

1044. BDADUDE
deleted
Quoting BDADUDE:
Must have been a lot of shrinkage involved in water that cold.





nop
1046. JLPR2
Messy.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Correct me if I am wrong... the south pole ice has been expanding for approx that last 10 years?


2008-2010 it was up a tad..This year's Antarctica sea ice freeze fell a little short of average.

Global sea ice over all is down.
Quoting JLPR2:
Messy.


Pulled together a lot better though. That ultra elongated where it wants to close at both ends can take a little longer..west-ho.
1049. JLPR2
LLC is messy, but doesn't need much to close off and become better defined.
Vort is strengthening too.
Quoting TexasHurricane:


I hope you get some rain soon. Where are you located? We got pretty good rains today and they say a 60-70% chance tomorrow. :)

Southeast of Buda, we have less than a 20 percent Monday with dry air moving behind a very weak front, no cool air behind it. Front on Wednesday will be much cooler but moisture here will be limited is what I am hearing? Today it was near 100 with 50 percent humidity, darn right miserable perfect for storm or heavy rain. There is a good storm south of me moving southeast, lots of lightning. I have to vote my area and Austin area as easily one of top 5 for Worst Summers ever. We had 85 days over 100, over 60 days in the 90s. I have 7 inches of rain and Austin 9 inches. We had the Oak Fire months ago, then the Cedar Park Fire, Leander Fire, Steiner Ranch Fire and the Bastrop Fire all around us that has really hurt this area in several ways but people and their assistance has been beyond Awesome. Without the dead or dying Trees near Bastrop that fire would not have been nearly as bad, last time i heard it was 90 percent contained. But it is Sept 18th and our heat index was above 105 today, i have never seen anything like this 2011 weather year. Been thru Hurricanes in Texas and in La, been thru some pretty good tornadoes in my life, been flooded out of 2 homes with several feet of water and have seen some hail that went thru some roofs but this heat, drought and fires has drained me in every way because I have seen animals suffer and die out there and there is nothing I can do to help them. I have been flooded out of 2 homes in my life with several feet of water in them too. I do have lots of feed and water out for the hundreds of birds around but that is about all i can do. Now I am making trips to Bastrop to help them but I am praying for any relief and I hope i never see a horrible weather year like this. Give me the Heat, Give me a drought, give me a few fires but don't give me all 3 together at the same time. I have to laugh to stop from losing my sanity. Austin airport got a trace this week, i got a trace and Camp Mabry received 2 tenths this week. Family members within 50 miles of me received about the same as I did.
1052. ryang
Quoting beell:


Same conclusion here, fwiw.

SW/W shear begins to ramp up as 98L nears 60W. In part to an upper level trough (axis indicated) backing into the central Caribbean. Between 96-120 hrs would be my guess for this system to attain some organization. The current upper level trough to its N should prohibit much development until then. Overall, the word "hostile" comes to mind. Butt who nose, may look different in 2-3 days.

09/18 18Z GFS 200mb @ 132hrs


That explains it, thanks!
Quoting JLPR2:
Messy.


I wouldn't say messy, especially for an invest at 30%.
Golfball size hail in TX tonight.


Quoting BDADUDE:


Where is that?
1055. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I wouldn't say messy, especially for an invest at 30%.


Well it's not exactly the most organized LLC ever. Needs to mix out the multiple swirls.
HWRF wins the first model run on 99L with only 8.3nm of error. The rest are no where close.
Considering the damage estimates I've seen...I believe there is a high likelihood of Tropical Storm Lee becoming the second ever tropical storm to be retired.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I wouldn't say messy, especially for an invest at 30%.

Sloppy. really goodnight.
>
1059. Drakoen
Quoting JLPR2:
Messy.


Descent pass indicating an elongated center or circulation with 98L.
Quoting JLPR2:


Well it's not exactly the most organized LLC ever. Needs to mix out the multiple swirls.


Still, it has come a long way over the past 24 hours. Its low-level circulation is tightening up, and its getting better organized. I wouldn't doubt Code Red tomorrow.
Quoting Drakoen:


Descent pass indicating an elongated center or circulation with 98L.


Quoting Orcasystems:


Correct me if I am wrong... the south pole ice has been expanding for approx that last 10 years?

Well, Dr. Masters--and the comment to which I was responding--talked about the Arctic Sea.

But in addition to what skyepony said in #1047, as has been noted any number of times, the Arctic Sea and Antarctica are, well, polar opposites: the former is an ocean surrounded by land, while the latter is land surrounded by sea. Because of that, the dynamics between the two are very different, so no direct comparisons can or should be made between them. But at any rate, heat has been building up in the deep waters around Antarctica, leading to such phenomena as the recent invasion of warmer-water crabs.

And so on...
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Completely random, but still about this season's storms so...
2011 Preliminary Damages Per Storm
1- Irene >$10,100,000,000
2- Lee >$250,000,000
3- Arlene $223,400,000
4- Katia ~$157,000,000
5- Emily(lol) >$5,000,000
I'm suprised Emily cost more than One U.S. Dollar.
1066. DFWjc
Quoting Skyepony:
Golfball size hail in TX tonight.




Where is that?


Just North of DFW is getting some nasty weather...
Quoting DFWjc:


Just North of DFW is getting some nasty weather...


Where at?
Quoting Neapolitan:

Well, Dr. Masters--and the comment to which I was responding--talked about the Arctic Sea.

But in addition to what skyepony said in #1047, as has been noted any number of times, the Arctic Sea and Antarctica are, well, polar opposites: the former is an ocean surrounded by land, while the latter is land surrounded by sea. Because of that, the dynamics between the two are very different, so no direct comparisons can or should be made between them. But at any rate, heat has been building up in the deep waters around Antarctica, leading to such phenomena as the recent invasion of warmer-water crabs.

And so on...


If its "Global Warming" ... shouldn't the South Pole be melting also?
We should wind shear really pick up on Tuesday or so as it begins to feel the effects of the Upper trough to its west.



" " this post if you're tired of people bashing other people because of what they are posting, and wish we would all just get along!
1074. nymore
Quoting Neapolitan:

Well, Dr. Masters--and the comment to which I was responding--talked about the Arctic Sea.

But in addition to what skyepony said in #1047, as has been noted any number of times, the Arctic Sea and Antarctica are, well, polar opposites: the former is an ocean surrounded by land, while the latter is land surrounded by sea. Because of that, the dynamics between the two are very different, so no direct comparisons can or should be made between them. But at any rate, heat has been building up in the deep waters around Antarctica, leading to such phenomena as the recent invasion of warmer-water crabs.

And so on...
yea all the warm water crabs that live in water temps of 34 degrees.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
" " this post if you're tired of people bashing other people because of what they are posting, and wish we would all just get along!
MEEEEEEE
Quoting KoritheMan:


" " if you want everyone to stfu.


lol.

1
My computer doesn't like the plus key...it also makes it invisible on the post.
calm down

it is what it is
and what ever its
meant to be
Sonca and Roke in the Pacific basin.



Quoting IceCoast:
Sonca and Roke in the Pacific basin.





Just going to do a random guess, 'cause I don't follow WPAC systems.

First one: Cat. 2

Second one: Strong tropical storm
Ok so we now have 3 invests now. Which one is 97L, 98L and 99L?
1084. dibird
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
" " this post if you're tired of people bashing other people because of what they are posting, and wish we would all just get along!


Thank you! Lurker here...
1085. BDADUDE
Hurricane spider.
Quoting tropicfreak:
Ok so we now have 3 invests now. Which one is 97L, 98L and 99L?


We have two invests -- 97L was deactivated this morning.

98L:



99L:

Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Southeast of Buda, we have less than a 20 percent Monday with dry air moving behind a very weak front, no cool air behind it. Front on Wednesday will be much cooler but moisture here will be limited is what I am hearing? Today it was near 100 with 50 percent humidity, darn right miserable perfect for storm or heavy rain. There is a good storm south of me moving southeast, lots of lightning. I have to vote my area and Austin area as easily one of top 5 for Worst Summers ever. We had 85 days over 100, over 60 days in the 90s. I have 7 inches of rain and Austin 9 inches. We had the Oak Fire months ago, then the Cedar Park Fire, Leander Fire, Steiner Ranch Fire and the Bastrop Fire all around us that has really hurt this area in several ways but people and their assistance has been beyond Awesome. Without the dead or dying Trees near Bastrop that fire would not have been nearly as bad, last time i heard it was 90 percent contained. But it is Sept 18th and our heat index was above 105 today, i have never seen anything like this 2011 weather year. Been thru Hurricanes in Texas and in La, been thru some pretty good tornadoes in my life, been flooded out of 2 homes with several feet of water and have seen some hail that went thru some roofs but this heat, drought and fires has drained me in every way because I have seen animals suffer and die out there and there is nothing I can do to help them. I have been flooded out of 2 homes in my life with several feet of water in them too. I do have lots of feed and water out for the hundreds of birds around but that is about all i can do. Now I am making trips to Bastrop to help them but I am praying for any relief and I hope i never see a horrible weather year like this. Give me the Heat, Give me a drought, give me a few fires but don't give me all 3 together at the same time. I have to laugh to stop from losing my sanity. Austin airport got a trace this week, i got a trace and Camp Mabry received 2 tenths this week. Family members within 50 miles of me received about the same as I did.


Do ya live near the Uhland area? San Marcos is my old stomping grounds. I attended 4 fantastic years at Texas State and graduated in 2009 with a B.S. in Environmental Science and Geology. I work in Dallas now :(. I guess we go where the work takes us. I miss the rivers, the people, and most of all...the lifestyle of the area. Hope all is well with the fires. I used to drive highway 21 twice a week to College Station. I can't imagine what it looks like now.
1088. will40
Quoting tropicfreak:
Ok so we now have 3 invests now. Which one is 97L, 98L and 99L?




Link
Quoting nymore:
yea all the warm water crabs that live in water temps of 34 degrees.

If you'll read carefully, you'll note I used the comparative adjective "warmer", not "warm". You really have to pay attention to the details...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Just going to do a random guess, 'cause I don't follow WPAC systems.

First one: Cat. 2

Second one: Strong tropical storm


Depends on which agency you go by, this is JTWC.

WTPN32 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 19W (SONCA) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 33.2N 142.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY



------------


WTPN31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18W (ROKE) WARNING NR 030
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 26.3N 130.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
1091. Patrap
Quoting Neapolitan:

If you'll read carefully, you'll note I used the comparative adjective "warmer", not "warm". You really have to pay attention to the details...



plus 10 to the 6th powa'
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
calm down

it is what it is
and what ever its
meant to be


Que sera, sera.
Quoting IceCoast:


Depends on which agency you go by, this is JTWC.

WTPN32 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 19W (SONCA) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 33.2N 142.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY



------------


WTPN31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 18W (ROKE) WARNING NR 030
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 26.3N 130.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY


85 knots (100 mph) and 55 knots (65 mph).

Awesome! I nailed it!

lol.
1094. DFWjc
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Where at?


Well it just rolled thru here in North Richland Hills, fast little sucker... large lightening, a few pops of thunder and within 5 minutes it already near Arlington moving NW to SE...
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
WOOP WOOP! Went to the game with a bunch of friends, etc etc...game was intense. Loud as hell. Great game though...proud of them.

I'm pretty sure we'd be 2-0 if we had the full team out there when we were playing Maryland.
pretty sure if the Buckeyes didn't have similar off season issues and losing the core and coach, the Canes would surely be 0-2...just sayin'
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


We have two invests -- 97L was deactivated this morning.

98L:



99L:





99L RIP
1097. DFWjc
Quoting Altestic2012:
"+" if you're absolutely fed up with Neapolitan spewing his liberal AGW agenda!


"+" if you don't care about people B G and C'ing just because someone make an opinion that doesn't support their ideology...
1098. nymore
Quoting Neapolitan:

If you'll read carefully, you'll note I used the comparative adjective "warmer", not "warm". You really have to pay attention with these things...
You can just say king crabs because that is what your referring to.
1099. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Still, it has come a long way over the past 24 hours. Its low-level circulation is tightening up, and its getting better organized. I wouldn't doubt Code Red tomorrow.


Oh yes, it's organizing, wouldn't surprise one bit it if it goes red at 8am.

If current trend continues tomorrow we should have a nicely organized LLC and an almost TD.
Quoting BDADUDE:
Hurricane spider.
that is just a "nickname" for it, it is called a Golden Orb or Golden Silk Orb, also nicknamed a "banana spider"...be careful of them as they will bite and put a hurtin' on ya.
Pretty good liking typhoon for the latitude it's at. Good thing it isn't trekking up the coast of Japan.

Skyepony "Sick Gulf residents continue to blame BP.
Many people living near the site of the BP oil spill have reported a long list of similar health problems.
"
952 twincomanche "Just trying to scam the system."

That's easy to say, but have you got any proof that BP would try to scam the system?
99L is pretty much poof...98L needs some work...

Quoting IceCoast:
Pretty good liking typhoon for the latitude it's at. Good thing it isn't trekking up the coast of Japan.



Small typhoon is small.
Out of all the invests ATM, it looks like 98L is superior. Some organization, consistent convection.
Quoting Orcasystems:


If its "Global Warming" ... shouldn't the South Pole be melting also?

The South Pole is melting, of course. That is, land-ice is disappearing. Sea ice is not, for the most part, and for at least the following two reasons:

1) Ozone levels over Antarctica have dropped, causing stratospheric cooling and increasing winds which lead to more areas of open water that can be frozen.

2) The Southern Ocean is freshening because of increased rain, glacial run-off and snowfall. This changes the composition of the different layers in the ocean there causing less mixing between warm and cold layers and thus less melted sea ice.

As I said earlier, there are huge differences between the Arctic and Antarctica, and the climate dynamics between the two are particularly complex.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Small typhoon is small.


Ya sure is small, but certainly packing a punch. Just look at her compared to Roke.

POSS.T.C.F.A.
98L/INV/XX
MARK
11.15N/38.39W
Quoting IceCoast:


Ya sure is small, but certainly packing a punch. Just look at her compared to Roke.



Small systems tend to pack more of a punch than the larger ones.
Quoting aspectre:
Skyepony "Sick Gulf residents continue to blame BP.
Many people living near the site of the BP oil spill have reported a long list of similar health problems.
"

952 twincomanche "Just trying to scam the system."

That's easy to say, but have you got any proof that BP would try to scam the system?
What I was trying to say was that the individuals were trying to scam the system.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Small systems tend to pack more of a punch than the larger ones.


Exactly, just look at Charley.
Quoting aspectre:
Skyepony "Sick Gulf residents continue to blame BP.
Many people living near the site of the BP oil spill have reported a long list of similar health problems.
"

952 twincomanche "Just trying to scam the system."

That's easy to say, but have you got any proof that BP would try to scam the system?
There is no evidence with any credibility to suggest that anyone has any health problems from the spill.
Quoting twincomanche:
There is no evidence with any credibility to suggest that anyone has any health problems from the spill.


The government said that for years about agent orange too... just sayin'

1111. tropicfreak

Pretty good example
1114. Patrap
WP182011 - Tropical Storm ROKE

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery

click image for Loop

Okinawa is the Large island to the West,Sw





Quoting KoritheMan:


Small systems tend to pack more of a punch than the larger ones.


Yep.

1116. JLPR2
Cute. LOL!
Quoting JLPR2:
Cute. LOL!


LOL.
Jose Jr.
1120. DFWjc
Quoting Neapolitan:

The South Pole is melting, of course. That is, land-ice is disappearing. Sea ice is not, for the most part, and for at least the following two reasons:

1) Ozone levels over Antarctica have dropped, causing stratospheric cooling and increasing winds which lead to more areas of open water that can be frozen.

2) The Southern Ocean is freshening because of increased rain, glacial run-off and snowfall. This changes the composition of the different layers in the ocean there causing less mixing between warm and cold layers and thus less melted sea ice.

As I said earlier, there are huge differences between the Arctic and Antarctica, and the climate dynamics between the two are particularly complex.



Earth's axial tilt or obliquity varies from 24.5 degrees to 22.1 degrees over the course of a 41,000-year cycle. The current angle is 23.4 degrees. Changes in axial tilt affect the distribution of solar radiation received at the earth's surface. When the angle of tilt is low, polar regions receive less insolation. When the tilt is greater, the polar regions receive more insolation during the course of a year. Like precession and eccentricity, changes in tilt thus influence the relative strength of the seasons, but the effects of the tilt cycle are particularly pronounced in the high latitudes where the great ice ages began.
Anyone know how big Sonca is across? Its sure is a pretty lil' thang.
1122. jpsb
Quoting Neapolitan:

Do you have evidence of this cooling? Here's a temperature graph showing otherwise (please note that this is actually from a denier site):

Uh-oh

P.S. -- Pay attention to the red 13-month running average trendline, not the order 3 polynomial trendline intended added just this month with no explanation.
I have one of those too




I like mine better ;)
1125. ackee
seem like 98L has really improve on the vorticity map tonight
Any recent ASCAT pass for 98L?
Good night All.
Quoting twincomanche:
Oh stop with the conspiracy crap unless you have some facts to present.


I beg your pardon? VA.. the government, refused for years to acknowledge agent orange had any long term illnesses, or was killing folks. No conspiracy there, just a fact.

I don't see how you can be so certain that "no one" is sick. Who told you that was the case, or is it just opinion?

Also, it is rude as hell to accuse me of pushing "conspiracy crap". Nothing in my comment warranted your mean spirited reaction.

G-night TA13
1132. j2008
Quoting Patrap:
WP192011 - Typhoon SONCA

click image for Loop dee loop,






Very impressive looking typhoon!! If anybody cares Hurricane Phillipe formed in 2005 today, meaning we are two storms behind 2005 now......and if we dont start churning storms out soon again, I might not be able to survive the GW talk. LOL
1134. j2008
Quoting IceCoast:
Is that rain in texas????? (Gasp)
At the peak of the spill, here in mobile the air smelled horrible. Any exposure gave headaches. I don't know how much long term damage there was/is, but I was here. I had a headache for days after the smell diminished. Was like a combination of fresh pavement and industrial cleaners. You know they say open the windows when you use powerful cleaners? Well, there were no windows to be opened. And we got sick. Im sure those working the cleanup got it worse than we did, too. I dont care what you may think about boloney claims. There may be some. But I'll tell you with certainty, we got real ill down here.
1136. JLPR2
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Any recent ASCAT pass for 98L?


Quoting indianrivguy:


I beg your pardon? VA.. the government, refused for years to acknowledge agent orange had any long term illnesses, or was killing folks. No conspiracy there, just a fact.

I don't see how you can be so certain that "no one" is sick. Who told you that was the case, or is it just opinion?

Also, it is rude as hell to accuse me of pushing "conspiracy crap". Nothing in my comment warranted your mean spirited reaction.

G-night TA13
Sorry if I was mean. Just no facts in evidence.
Quoting twincomanche:
There is no evidence with any credibility to suggest that anyone has any health problems from the spill.


Posted you some links back there. People's Doctors are sending their blood to labs & the results comeback with off the chart levels of hexane & other VOCs found in the dispersant used & oil vapors. You either haven't looked at the evidence or don't believe in Chemistry & hematology. Knowing people & a Dr in the area, I've heard some first hand stories..People have died. Also BP has payed no one for claiming to be sick..I don't see where people are scamming BP by saying they are sick..most are paying for detox out of pocket & then moving away with no compensation.
1139. will40
98L needs to consolodate all those centers
1041 Orcasystems "Correct me if I am wrong... the south pole ice has been expanding for approx that last 10 years?"

There is strong evidence that Antarctica is currently losing nearly as much glacial ice as Greenland,
and weaker (shorter timeframe, greater margin of error) evidence that its glacial ice loss is increasing at a rate such that Antarctica is poised to begin losing more than Greenland within the next few years*.
ie Antarctica's loss rate will still be smaller as a percentage of its total than Greenland's, but there's so much more of Antarctica than of Greenland...

* If it hasn't already begun. There's been a rather large time lag between data collection and data analysis, then another (albeit not as large) time lag between analysis and publication.
Quoting Skyepony:


Posted you some links back there. People's Doctors are sending their blood to labs & the results comeback with off the chart levels of hexane & other VOCs found in the dispersant used & oil vapors. You either haven't looked at the evidence or don't believe in Chemistry & hematology. Knowing people & a Dr in the area, I've heard some first hand stories.. Also BP has payed no one for claiming to be sick..I don't see where people are scamming BP by saying they are sick..most are paying for detox out of pocket & then moving away with no compensation.
I just dont see any links to the cause. I don't doubt the blood tests.
1142. RTLSNK
Quoting twincomanche:
Oh stop with the conspiracy crap unless you have some facts to present.


If you would like to read the facts for yourself, simply Google Agent Orange and read.

We sprayed 20 Million Gallons of it all over Vietnam.

WARNING - For those of you who have weak stomachs, do not read or scroll all the way down to the end of the article where there are true and factual photos of the effects of Agent Orange on adults and children. They are horrible to see and yet they are the facts that you so sarcasticly are inquiring about.

If you would like some personal "facts" about the effects on those of us in the military who were actually in contact with Agent Orange during our tours in Vietnam, or you would like to know the "facts" about our children that were born with birth defects caused by our contamination with the chemical after we returned to the States, you can send Grothar or I a WU-mail.

We may not answer you, but you can send it.
Oh Yeah...:)

Quoting IceCoast:




can you plzs link that and not post them right on the blog it mass up the srcolling on the blog when you move the pages up and down it makes it slow
1145. DFWjc
Quoting j2008:
Is that rain in texas????? (Gasp)


Yep yep...from Dallas CBS weatherman

Larry Mowry
Looks like heavy rain moving in south Arlington toward Mansfield. Probably some hail in there too.
16 minutes ago via Twitter

Larry Mowry
Radar estimating 2.5" of rain fell from Garland to Sacshe in NE Dallas County.
Like · · @CBS11Larry on Twitter · 17 minutes ago via Twitter

Larry Mowry
Areas from Denton to Lewisville to Keller and to the west are done with the storms.
@CBS11Larry on Twitter · 18 minutes ago via Twitter

Larry Mowry
Flood Advisory for Dallas County. Rainfall rates around 4" per hour. Usual low lying spots filling up with water, ponding on roadways.
1146. jpsb
Quoting Neapolitan:

The South Pole is melting, of course.


West Antarctic ice field is breaking up a bit, East Antarctic (much bigger) is growing. Over all Antarctic ice is increasing. Or so I have been told, but my info is 2 or 3 years old.

Also there a numerous causes of lose of Arctic ice, temperature not being the primary one. It is also significant that Arctic ice never shrank to or below the level of 2007.
Quoting twincomanche:
Sorry if I was mean. Just no facts in evidence.


Its all good, we can disagree and be civil bro. And I am skeptical of your statement. Reading post 1135 by SouthALWX I believe it, I think he is telling the truth. Sure, there will be some fraud, but in my opinion there was to much volatile vapor for it NOT to affect at least some folks. Time will tell, prolly in a bad way.
1150. Patrap
,,,indeed
1151. lhwhelk
Quoting j2008:
Is that rain in texas????? (Gasp)

Apparently only meaningful if you live in Dallas. My rain guage this morning registered <1/4". Come on, 98, we're rooting for you!
Quoting j2008:
Is that rain in texas????? (Gasp)


Awesome lightening show here in San Antonio.
1156. beell
Quoting twincomanche:
WTF, read all the posts.


Which ones?
About the Dust Bowl?
Poverty in America?
Agent Orange?

So many to choose from,lol.
Settle down guys.
1158. will40
When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.
1159. j2008
Sorry , I had to step out for a bit, I'm glad the people of Dallas are getting some rain, heres rooting for the rest of you in texas!! Ohh and not to forget the rest of the states being affected, lets hope 98 stays week and brings some rain to SE coastline. Sorry bout the west casting there.........
1160. DFWjc
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


And I am sick of the 9/11 first responders saying they got sick of all that crap in the air. Give me a break.


yeah because air-bourne asbestos doesn't kill people, just smoggy air does...

1161. jpsb
Vampires come out at night and werewolves too.
Quoting JLPR2:
Cute. LOL!
Should be Tropical Storm Ophelia. Has the same amount of organized convection that Jose had.
1163. JLPR2
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Should be Tropical Storm Ophelia. Has the same amount of organized convection that Jose had.


LLC isn't as defined.
Yo nutjob Pat. Thanks for the nice sat links tonight. Last night you posted a link to one with an orange color, from LSU maybe.. anyway, I "thought " I bookmarked it but apparently not.. would you share again kind sir eerrrr nutjob :)
1165. will40
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Should be Tropical Storm Ophelia. Has the same amount of organized convection that Jose had.



maybe when it consolidates more
Quoting twincomanche:
I just dont see any links to the cause. I don't doubt the blood tests.


The VOCs in the blood tests are the same in the dispersant & oil...someone living in a clean environment wouldn't have things like m,p-Xylene, hexane, and ethylbenzene in their blood. They are finding that & other markers in really sick people that live around the area or visited & got in the water on the wrong day. Some were in the wrong place & got sprayed by dispersant. Look around links are everywhere.. Here's one FL family that got the typical symptoms..turns out their pool had dispersant in it.. They didn't outlaw that stuff in a bunch of countries for no reason.. the link was made along time ago. If you can't see the link..well Gulf is open..take a swim, enjoy some crabs.
1167. JLPR2
But 99L is now heading to an area of lower shear (20knots), yesterday it was 40-50knots.

Wouldn't surprise me if this grabbed at least a TD number.
Quoting lhwhelk:

Apparently only meaningful if you live in Dallas. My rain guage this morning registered <1/4". Come on, 98, we're rooting for you!

I thought wishcasting was against the rules?
What if this turns out to be a category 5 monster that ruins half of the caribbean and lands as a major hurricane in galveston?

I'd rather cheer for cold fronts sweeping down providing some rain.
1169. DFWjc
Quoting RussianWinter:

I thought wishcasting was against the rules?
What if this turns out to be a category 5 monster that ruins half of the caribbean and lands as a major hurricane in galveston?

I'd rather cheer for cold fronts sweeping down providing some rain.


are you kidding me, do you know what the odds of that happening...
1171. lhwhelk
Quoting RussianWinter:

I thought wishcasting was against the rules?
What if this turns out to be a category 5 monster that ruins half of the caribbean and lands as a major hurricane in galveston?

I'd rather cheer for cold fronts sweeping down providing some rain.

Not wishcasting. (I did, after all, get "Ike'd.") But unfortunately at this time of year, our moisture can only come from something tropical. No-one wants a big hurricane, but a little tropical depression or tropical storm could make a big difference to all of us in Texas.
1172. j2008
Quoting DFWjc:


are you kidding me, do you know what the odds of that happening...

Especially this year, hardly anything can get above TS status, although I'd better watch what I say. My luck is that everything will be a hurricane from now on.
Quoting Skyepony:


Posted you some links back there. People's Doctors are sending their blood to labs & the results comeback with off the chart levels of hexane & other VOCs found in the dispersant used & oil vapors. You either haven't looked at the evidence or don't believe in Chemistry & hematology. Knowing people & a Dr in the area, I've heard some first hand stories..People have died. Also BP has payed no one for claiming to be sick..I don't see where people are scamming BP by saying they are sick..most are paying for detox out of pocket & then moving away with no compensation.


I also wouldn't be too surprised to see leukemia and bone marrow cancer rates go up along the coast due to benzene exposure. Benzene is a hydrocarbon that is often found in gas and oil wells and is soluble, unlike most other hydrocarbons, in water. So exposure to the water near the site, or the air near the site, or even on shore would not be a good thing for anyone.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


And I am sick of the 9/11 first responders saying they got sick of all that crap in the air. Give me a break.


You should try to research the subject before you make a statement like that...

By COURTNEY HUTCHISON, ABC News Medical Unit
Sept. 1, 2011

For many of the nearly 50,000 9/11 first responders, the wounds of the Twin Tower attacks are far from healing. According to two studies published Thursday in the British journal Lancet, these rescue workers continue to struggle with respiratory illness, depression, and post traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and many of them may be at increased risk for developing a number of cancers.

ABC News
1180. DFWjc
Quoting j2008:

Especially this year, hardly anything can get above TS status, although I'd better watch what I say. My luck is that everything will be a hurricane from now on.


But still come on, all of us wishcast, but that doesn't mean that we want a Cat 1-4 hurricane hitting any particular area of CONUS..
1182. pcola57
Quoting Skyepony:


The VOCs in the blood tests are the same in the dispersant & oil...someone living in a clean environment wouldn't have things like m,p-Xylene, hexane, and ethylbenzene in their blood. They are finding that & other markers in really sick people that live around the area or visited & got in the water on the wrong day. Some were in the wrong place & got sprayed by dispersant. Look around links are everywhere.. Here's one FL family that got the typical symptoms..turns out their pool had dispersant in it.. They didn't outlaw that stuff in a bunch of countries for no reason.. the link was made along time ago. If you can't see the link..well Gulf is open..take a swim, enjoy some crabs.


This so so sad,
Many of my friends used to be oyster/shrimp/charter boat captains and now they do landscape work or in the local fish markets unloading seafoods from other parts of the country..local people DO Not eat the "catch of the day" anymore..the health problems are occuring and will continue to do so..all you have to do is lay on your beach towel for awhile and then take it home to wash it...it definitely has an petroluem odor...This issue cannot and will not go away by paying people off..This is only my humble view point...for what it's worth
blog wars got to luv em
Quoting bambamwx:


You should try to research the subject before you make a statement like that...

By COURTNEY HUTCHISON, ABC News Medical Unit
Sept. 1, 2011

For many of the nearly 50,000 9/11 first responders, the wounds of the Twin Tower attacks are far from healing. According to two studies published Thursday in the British journal Lancet, these rescue workers continue to struggle with respiratory illness, depression, and post traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and many of them may be at increased risk for developing a number of cancers.

ABC News


I wanted to point out how misinformed he was. Way to set in his ways.
1185. j2008
Quoting DFWjc:


But still come on, all of us wishcast, but that doesn't mean that we want a Cat 1-4 hurricane hitting any particular area of CONUS..

Yea very good point, I hate to see any place damaged by a storm, but as much as I wish against it, it happens.
1186. hcubed
Quoting DFWjc:



Earth's axial tilt or obliquity varies from 24.5 degrees to 22.1 degrees over the course of a 41,000-year cycle. The current angle is 23.4 degrees. Changes in axial tilt affect the distribution of solar radiation received at the earth's surface. When the angle of tilt is low, polar regions receive less insolation. When the tilt is greater, the polar regions receive more insolation during the course of a year. Like precession and eccentricity, changes in tilt thus influence the relative strength of the seasons, but the effects of the tilt cycle are particularly pronounced in the high latitudes where the great ice ages began.


And, add to that the NUTATION: "...A periodic variation in precession: in other words, a wobble on top of the main wobble of Earth's axis. The chief cause of nutation is the Moon moving in an orbit that is inclined (by 5°) to the ecliptic. This lunar nutation amounts to a +/− 9″ back-and-forth jiggling of Earth's poles every 18.6 years (the time it takes for the Moon's orbit to come around to the same relative position again). The net result is that, instead of describing a perfectly circular path in the sky, every 25,800 years or so, due to precession, the precessional path of Earth's axis is more like the crinkly shape of a cookie-cutter...

From the Wiley book of Astronomy.

So if the larger changes in the earth's tilt can cause ice ages, then smaller "wobbles" COULD cause variations in the insolation, and changes in earth's temps.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I wanted to point out how misinformed he was. Way to set in his ways.


Got it
1188. pcola57
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
blog wars got to luv em


It's like a child care blog sometimes...but you, Skye,Pat and all the reg's(can't name them all...not enough blog space!!) know that this too shall pass...LOL!!
Patrap, thanks for all the images, models, charts and humor you bring to the blog!



For those of us in SE Texas and Louisiana, rain chances are still up for a little while longer. For the Houston area the coastal showers will probably start picking up again. Hooray!
1191. gugi182
Where do you think 98L will head and what will be intensity forecast for 98L?
1192. jpsb
Quoting pcola57:


local people DO Not eat the "catch of the day"
Here in Galveston we get tar balls washing up all the time, I guess yall are not taking about tar balls. Crude all by itself in low concentrations should not be deadly or even unhealthy (unless you eat it) so some thing else must be going on. Dispersant?
1194. j2008
Quoting gugi182:
Where do you think 98L will head and what will be intensity forecast for 98L?

Most likey a slow build up in intensity, and 10mph W. movement, on average. That means one day it might apply and another day it won't apply.
Quoting Patrap:



Thanx,

Blog tuff's like shear, always go null after awhile.

But me tinks a lesson was learned tonight.

Never send someone something you wouldnt want to have posted in the open.

He failed the snuff test, badly.

Any Corporate owner would NEVER post a private e/wu-mail,

Food fer thought.



G'night.


Night
With absolutely no name calling by me, GefferyWPB...you are "poofed" for that insensitive comment.
Quoting gugi182:
Where do you think 98L will head and what will be intensity forecast for 98L?


Here you go
1199. jpsb
Quoting hcubed:


And, add to that the NUTATION: "...A periodic variation in precession: in other words, a wobble on top of the main wobble of Earth's axis. The chief cause of nutation is the Moon moving in an orbit that is inclined (by 5°) to the ecliptic. This lunar nutation amounts to a +/− 9″ back-and-forth jiggling of Earth's poles every 18.6 years (the time it takes for the Moon's orbit to come around to the same relative position again). The net result is that, instead of describing a perfectly circular path in the sky, every 25,800 years or so, due to precession, the precessional path of Earth's axis is more like the crinkly shape of a cookie-cutter...

From the Wiley book of Astronomy.

So if the larger changes in the earth's tilt can cause ice ages, then smaller "wobbles" COULD cause variations in the insolation, and changes in earth's temps.
Interesting, but 9" inches is pretty small (and not I am not bragging). Hard to imagine a 9" change in the tilt of a 4,000 mile ball having a noticeable effect.
Quoting Skyepony:


The VOCs in the blood tests are the same in the dispersant & oil...someone living in a clean environment wouldn't have things like m,p-Xylene, hexane, and ethylbenzene in their blood. They are finding that & other markers in really sick people that live around the area or visited & got in the water on the wrong day. Some were in the wrong place & got sprayed by dispersant. Look around links are everywhere.. Here's one FL family that got the typical symptoms..turns out their pool had dispersant in it.. They didn't outlaw that stuff in a bunch of countries for no reason.. the link was made along time ago. If you can't see the link..well Gulf is open..take a swim, enjoy some crabs.


+++100,000
me too g-night
Quoting tropicfreak:
Settle down guys.


I pray for BLOG PEACE
1206. jpsb
Quoting carcar1967:


I pray for BLOG PEACE
peace thru strength, HooRaa.
Quoting jpsb:
Here in Galveston we get tar balls washing up all the time, I guess yall are not taking about tar balls. Crude all by itself in low concentrations should not be deadly or even unhealthy (unless you eat it) so some thing else must be going on. Dispersant?


I would be very hesitant to say that crude is not unhealthy. I would be willing to say that some components are probably more benign than others, but the toxicological properties of some are probably nothing to sneeze at.


For instance, long-chain hydrocarbons are probably less of a concern than short-chain hydrocarbons that can get into the air more readily. There are sulfur-bearing hydrocarbons that may have some unpleasant effects too. Also included are aromatic hydrocarbons, these are the really fun molecules that no one wants floating around in their blood.


One of the really fun effects of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) is when they get processed by an enzyme in the liver called Cytochrome P450 they get oxidized and make epoxides. Epoxides are pretty reactive beasts and after another step they can bind irreversibly to DNA and prevent replication. It's for that reason that there are recommendations not to eat the burnt bits of food.
1208. jpsb
Quoting nofailsafe:


I would be very hesitant to say that crude is not unhealthy. I would be willing to say that some components are probably more benign than others, but the toxicological properties of some are probably nothing to sneeze at.


For instance, long-chain hydrocarbons are probably less of a concern than short-chain hydrocarbons that can get into the air more readily. There are sulfur-bearing hydrocarbons that may have some unpleasant effects too. Also included are aromatic hydrocarbons, these are the really fun molecules that no one wants floating around in their blood.


One of the really fun effects of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) is when they get processed by an enzyme in the liver called Cytochrome P450 they get oxidized and make epoxides. Epoxides are pretty reactive beasts and after another step they can bind irreversibly to DNA and prevent replication. It's for that reason that there are recommendations not to eat the burnt bits of food.


Hmmm, looks like I'm wrong, I never figured crude was a threat to human health. I mean in the relatively small quantities that one might be exposed to because of a spill. hmmm.
Quoting jpsb:


Hmmm, looks like I'm wrong, I never figure crude was a threat to human health. I mean in the relatively small quantities that one might be exposed to because of a spill. hmmm.


A ball of tar sitting on the ground probably won't kill you, but I'd still pick it up with some gloves.
1210. pcola57
.
Hello all. What's the word on the tropics tonight?
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Hello all. What's the word on the tropics tonight?




98L is
Figures. Peek in to check on the tropics and there's every conversation going on except tropics. How very typical. Enjoy. L8R!
TampaSpin's model graphic for 98L looks interesting.
Quoting moonlightcowboy:
Figures. Peek in to check on the tropics and there's every conversation going on except tropics. How very typical. Enjoy. L8R!


Hey I came in to talk about the tropics!
Hi Taz :)
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Hi Taz :)



00z comeing in and hi
1219. JLPR2
Quoting moonlightcowboy:
Figures. Peek in to check on the tropics and there's every conversation going on except tropics. How very typical. Enjoy. L8R!


Same old WU. XD


You should try to research the subject before you make a statement like that...

By COURTNEY HUTCHISON, ABC News Medical Unit
Sept. 1, 2011

For many of the nearly 50,000 9/11 first responders, the wounds of the Twin Tower attacks are far from healing. According to two studies published Thursday in the British journal Lancet, these rescue workers continue to struggle with respiratory illness, depression, and post traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and many of them may be at increased risk for developing a number of cancers.

ABC News


I wanted to point out how misinformed he was. Way to set in his waysclass='blogquote'>Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I wanted to point out how misinformed he was. Way to set in his ways.
PTSD is something you have to learn to live, with i was a firefighter for 30 years. Still pull the 12 year old boy out of the swimming pool everynight. But it was not the pool builders fault or the fence people. it just happened, so sometime when you take a job things happen to you so you need to learn to get over them
1221. JLPR2
Ha! And now there are three.



GFS is insisting on bringing 97L back from the dead.
1222. WoodyFL



1223. Tygor
SWEET SWEET RAIN IN TEXAS :) Hope everyone gets a little soaking!
Yes it is Taz! Let's check it out!
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Yes it is Taz! Let's check it out!





ok
00z GFS 69 Hrs
At 24 hours the GFS shows a strong low pressure riding up the north wall of the Gulf Stream south of Nova Scotia. There is a small chance this will be subtropical. 98L is near 11.5 N 38 W as a small closed low.
At 48 hours the 00Z GFS run shows the northern low just south of Cape Race Newfoundland at about the same strength. 98L is near 12 N 42W and deeper by 1 millibar. A new Cape Verde disturbance is near 15 N 22 W.
1231. WoodyFL
Quoting MidwestGuy:


You should try to research the subject before you make a statement like that...

By COURTNEY HUTCHISON, ABC News Medical Unit
Sept. 1, 2011

For many of the nearly 50,000 9/11 first responders, the wounds of the Twin Tower attacks are far from healing. According to two studies published Thursday in the British journal Lancet, these rescue workers continue to struggle with respiratory illness, depression, and post traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and many of them may be at increased risk for developing a number of cancers.

ABC News


I wanted to point out how misinformed he was. Way to set in his waysclass='blogquote'>Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I wanted to point out how misinformed he was. Way to set in his ways.
PTSD is something you have to learn to live, with i was a firefighter for 30 years. Still pull the 12 year old boy out of the swimming pool everynight. But it was not the pool builders fault or the fence people. it just happened, so sometime when you take a job things happen to you so you need to learn to get over them


Don't want to jump into a private argument, but I believe Geoff was being sarcastic. He was responding to someone else's remark. I understood it after he had explained it to someone else. That should not be directed at him, but others who had made an insentive remark. This sort of misunderstanding happens all the time on the blog, which is why i dont post much. If you read back to the earlier posts youll see what he really meant. He was defending them, not criticizing.
Hope you like it Conner....

The 00Z run of the GFS by 60 hours shows the northern low east of Newfoundland and not in a place where it can be tropical.

By 72 hours 98L is near 12 N 47 W and the same strength. The new Cape Verde low is near 17 N and 27 W heading WNW. A new low has formed near 9.5 N 31 W.
I'm thinking about doing some blogs on the influence of weather on great historic battles. Weather and Warfare. Would anyone be interested in that? Carrhae, Teutorborg Forest, Cannae, Cynocephalae. Maybe more if there is interest in it.

The 00Z run of the GFS at 84 hours shows the deep tropical Atlantic presenting a diseased appearance. With three lows.

98L is near 12.5 N 49.5 W and is still the same strength.

The Cape Verde low is near 18 N 28.5 W and is not strengthening much either as it heads WNW.

Our 3rd low is near 10.5 N 33 W and weak.
1236. WoodyFL
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
I'm thinking about doing some blogs on the influence of weather on great historic battles. Weather and Warfare. Would anyone be interested in that? Carrhae, Teutorborg Forest, Cannae, Cynocephalae. Maybe more if there is interest in it.



Don't forget the Spanish Armada.
The 00Z run of the GFS at 96 hours shows 98L continuing to move west at about the same strength near 12.5 N 52 W. As a tropical depression, and it seems to have been a tropical depression for 2 days at this point.

The Cape Verde low is now moving more northwestward near 20 N 29 W at about the same strength. There is a weakness in the ridge to its north.

The 3rd low is near 12.5 N 35 W and looking weaker.
1239. Bielle
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
I'm thinking about doing some blogs on the influence of weather on great historic battles. Weather and Warfare. Would anyone be interested in that? Carrhae, Teutorborg Forest, Cannae, Cynocephalae. Maybe more if there is interest in it.


Was on a cruise a few years ago where a lecturer talked about the role of ocean currents in historic battles. It was fascinating. I'd enjoy anything you can come up with.
Quoting WoodyFL:


Don't forget the Spanish Armada.


Nope. Almost as effective as Japan's typhoons destroying Kubalai Khan's invasion fleet. Twice.

And Napoleon's invasion of Russia.
Great. I have Mondays and Tuesdays off so I can do the first one this week.
Good to see this line of rain moving through Texas. Hope it holds together for a while.

Y'all play nice. :)

1243. Bielle
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Great. I have Mondays and Tuesdays off so I can do the first one this week.


Keep us posted. I might miss a comment on the blog that it's done, so I'd appreciate an WU email, if that is not too much trouble.
The 00Z run of the GFS at 108 hours shows 98L near 12.5 N 56 W continuing at about the same strength, as a depression.

The Cape Verde Low is near 21 N 29 W at the same strength as well. Moving northwest, it is unlikely to be a factor on the other side of the Atlantic.

The 3rd low is refusing to die and is near 14 N 36 W.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
blog wars got to luv em


Think they'll do a reality show??
1246. WoodyFL
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Nope. Almost as effective as Japan's typhoons destroying Kubalai Khan's invasion fleet. Twice.

And Napoleon's invasion of Russia.



What, he didn't learn the first time?
Quoting Bielle:


Keep us posted. I might miss a comment on the blog that it's done, so I'd appreciate an WU email, if that is not too much trouble.


I will do that. It will likely be an entry I work on for 2 days.
Quoting WoodyFL:



What, he didn't learn the first time?


Kublai Khan needed more than one lesson and he got more than one lesson!
Kublai Khan's invasion attempts were in 1274 and 1281 I believe. I'm not looking that up while doing the GFS run commentary. In Japan the typhoons that wrecked Kublai's fleets are referred to as 'kamikaze', the Divine Wind.
1251. WoodyFL
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Kublai Khan's invasion attempts were in 1274 and 1281 I believe. I'm not looking that up while doing the GFS run commentary. In Japan the typhoons that wrecked Kublai's fleets are referred to as 'kamikaze', the Divine Wind.


Yes, I know. That term was used in World War II for quite another reason.
The 00Z GFS run at 120 hours shows 98L a little deeper and bigger located near 14 N 60 W closing in on the Lesser Antilles. Still probably a tropical depression

The Cape Verde low is near 22 N 29 W and drifting at about the same strength.

The 3rd low is near 15 N 37 W, still very weak but there.
Quoting WoodyFL:


Yes, I know. That term was used in World War II for quite another reason.


I am aware of that.
Quoting ncstorm:
I am really noticing some censorship on this blog..Two people posted private emails..one person's post was removed..the other person's email stayed where he replied at the end..when are you people going to wake up and see this blog for the hypocrisy?


What are you talking about?
The 00Z run of the GFS at 132 hours shows 98L in the Caribbean near 14.5 N 62 W at the same strength, still probably a strong tropical depression.

The Cape Verde low is still near 22 N 29 W and weakening

The 3rd low is near 16 N 38 W and slightly weaker.
Looks like the comments counter if OFF...... or is going nuts...

4727 and my previous was 4727....
1258. hcubed
Quoting jpsb:
Interesting, but 9" inches is pretty small (and not I am not bragging). Hard to imagine a 9" change in the tilt of a 4,000 mile ball having a noticeable effect.


Well, according to Wiki, they have a different value:

"...The principal term of nutation is due to the regression of the moon's nodal line and has the same period of 6798 days (18.6 years). It reaches plus or minus 17″ in longitude and 9″ in obliquity..."

And this: "...In addition to this steady decrease [in axial tilt] there are much smaller short term (18.6 years) variations, known as nutation, mainly due to the changing plane of the moon's orbit. This can shift the Earth's axial tilt by plus or minus 0.005 degree..."
The 00Z run of the GFS at 144 hours shows 98L just SW of 15 N 65 W and a little deeper, possibly reaching tropical storm strength. Finally.

The Cape Verde low is dead.

The other low is near 17 N 38.5 W and is about the same strength.
The long term shift in the axial tilt is downwards at this time, and will continue to be for thousands of years.
1263. WoodyFL
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


I am aware of that.


I guess it would be a good blog when things are slow on here.
1264. jpsb
Quoting WoodyFL:


Don't forget the Spanish Armada.
Valley Forge
The 00Z run of the GFS at 156 hours shows 98L near 16 N 68 W and weaker--back to tropical depression strength, instead of borderline TD/TS strength.

The other low is near 17 N 39.5 W and continues to be weak.
1266. JLPR2
Eumetsat 4z

The 00Z run of the GFS at 168 hours shows 98L weakening to an open wave, 'centered' near 16.5 N 68.5 W

The central Atlantic low is opening up as well and is near 18 N 41 W
The 00Z run of the GFS at 180 hours shows 98L closing up again but still weak near 17 N 69 W. The central Atlantic low is losing its identity.
98L GOOOOOOO
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
You can't please everyone...





your going too in up geting ban one day by posting off topic videos photos so on and so on
1272. WoodyFL
Quoting jpsb:
Valley Forge


That would be a good one.
The 00Z run of the GFS at 192 hours shows neither 98L nor the central Atlantic low having definition.
1274. jpsb
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Nope. Almost as effective as Japan's typhoons destroying Kubalai Khan's invasion fleet. Twice.

And Napoleon's invasion of Russia.
Twice? I knew once but I did not know twice. Also I believe the Persians lost most of their fleet when invading Greece under Zerces.
1275. WoodyFL
Quoting JLPR2:
Eumetsat 4z



What is that?
Quoting WoodyFL:


Don't want to jump into a private argument, but I believe Geoff was being sarcastic. He was responding to someone else's remark. I understood it after he had explained it to someone else. That should not be directed at him, but others who had made an insentive remark. This sort of misunderstanding happens all the time on the blog, which is why i dont post much. If you read back to the earlier posts youll see what he really meant. He was defending them, not criticizing.
oh well never mind
By 288 hours there are still no tropical lows of interest.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
The 00Z run of the GFS at 192 hours shows neither 98L nor the central Atlantic having definition.


lol
how nic noaa put up 99L

The 00Z run of the GFS at 336 hours shows a new Cape Verde low near 12.5 N 22.5 W

Seems in the season considering that is October 3rd.

A large broad low has formed in the western Caribbean, covering much of it. Its 'center' seems to be east of the northern Nicaragua coast.
1281. Seawall
Quoting ncstorm:
I am really noticing some censorship on this blog..Two people posted private emails..one person's post was removed..the other person's email stayed where he replied at the end..when are you people going to wake up and see this blog for the hypocrisy?


Yep, and it's not going to change in the near future, I fear.
Quoting CaribBoy:


lol


Corrected.
1284. jpsb
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
The long term shift in the axial tilt is downwards at this time, and will continue to be for thousands of years.
Cooler? (In the northern latitudes that is).
1285. JLPR2
Quoting WoodyFL:


What is that?


Eumetsat is a satellite just like the GOES13. GOES13 catches images of the Atl and the US, Eumetsat of Europe.
goood night
The 00Z run of the GFS at 360 hours shows the broad west Caribbean low interacting with a very deep trough in the southeast USA and seeming to transfer its energy to a new, sub 1004 mb low on the GA/SC coast.

The Cape Verde low is stationary, which seems weird. A slight northward drift.
1288. JLPR2

LOL! 99L gets a Floater but not 98L? What's up with that?
1289. JLPR2
I really hate the Goes 13 blackout. :|
But no floater for 98L.
Quoting Tazmanian:
how nic noaa put up 99L


1291. jpsb
Quoting JLPR2:

LOL! 99L gets a Floater but not 98L? What's up with that?
Saving fuel. Gas is very expensive up there ya know.
Quoting MidwestGuy:
oh well never mind


I was being sarcastic. To know me on here is to trust me on here. Although I may throw a joke or two.
makes no sense
Quoting JLPR2:

LOL! 99L gets a Floater but not 98L? What's up with that?

Quoting jpsb:
Cooler? (In the northern latitudes that is).


Yes, cooler at both poles.

The change in axial tilt does not change how much solar energy the earth receives. It does change its distribution.

The smaller the axial tilt is, the less solar energy the poles receive and the more solar energy the tropics receive.

If the axial tilt were zero the poles would get no solar radiation at all while the tropics received more.

If the axial tilt were 54 degrees everywhere would get the same amount of solar radiation. And that's not a typo. At 45 degrees the poles would still get a little less solar radiation than the equator.

A tilt of 54 degrees would be a strange world. Both the tropics and the poles and everywhere in between would have seasons, but the average temperatures would be the same everywhere!
Quoting Tazmanian:
how nic noaa put up 99L



Yes, nice shot !
1296. JLPR2
Quoting HuracandelCaribe:
makes no sense



Yeah. And Eumetsat just does't cut it.

The best we have is this:

But 98L is almost completely out of frame.
384 hours shows the Cape Verde low moving west, but still weak. And very late, being Oct 5.

The coastal low on the SE coast has been absorbed by a larger low to the north.

It seems the GFS doesn't predict anything more than one marginal tropical storm for the next 16 days!
1298. JLPR2
Oh wait.

98L seems ready for take-off. I wonder if it'll actually get going today.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
384 hours shows the Cape Verde low moving west, but still weak. And very late, being Oct 5.

The coastal low on the SE coast has been absorbed by a larger low to the north.

It seems the GFS doesn't predict anything more than one marginal tropical storm for the next 16 days!




hurricane season may be ending
1300. JLPR2
On the other view(site), 98L's LLC looked sort of messy but on this view it looks, great!

Winds are at max 25mph, but very nice.
1303. JLPR2
Quoting sunlinepr:


Wouldn't it be surprising if these two systems develop and visit us? XD
That would be one chaotic week.
Quoting jpsb:
Valley Forge


Valley Forge was not actually a severe winter. It was bad preparation.

Philadelphia, PA recorded 4 snowstorms between December and the first week of March of 4 or more inches but none were close to a foot.

And the coldest it got in Philadelphia was 6 above zero, not exceptional. And every month had milder spells when it reached 55 or more.

Valley Forge may have gotten to zero when Philly hit 6+, but that is not unusual. It was bad provisioning and preparation that made Valley Forge a disaster.
Quoting sunlinepr:


Your thoughts on that little "spaceship"...lol...
Quoting Tazmanian:




hurricane season may be ending


The fish in Lake Sabine (Tex/La border) think the season is over. Trout, red fish and flounder are schooling and heading out to sea in large numbers. This indicates that the fall migration pattern has started.
Quoting Orcasystems:


If its "Global Warming" ... shouldn't the South Pole be melting also?
Absolutely not. It's global warming, not south pole warming. We take the average temperature change across the entire planet to determine trends, not just Antarctica.
1311. JLPR2
98L is up to 60%

1. A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1450 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND MORE
CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

Sound the red Alert Alarm!
1312. vince1
Quoting twincomanche:
There is no evidence with any credibility to suggest that anyone has any health problems from the spill.
If you think Corexit is of no consequence to one's health, perhaps you should go take a drink or bathe in it. ;) I met a lady who escaped that madness in the Gulf by way of Montana. The chronic welts that had developed on her legs mysteriously disappeared with only the scars remaining AFTER she moved. Yes, this is an anecdote but one of many. She isn't out to scam anyone, but she made it her life's mission to get herself and her family out of harm's way.

Corexit literally disintegrates red blood cells...it's highly toxic and, in spite of the EPA instructing BP to use a less toxic dispersant (and heck, one with even more efficacy!), BP kept right on going (money talks; i.e. they had a chummy connection with Nalco who had already provided gobs of the stuff on the cheap). So when the EPA is not stepping outside of its bounds, it is absolutely useless in protecting those it was established to protect. Crony capitalism/quasi-fascism stink to high hell but are sadly very much alive today.
swflurker, what?
Quoting JLPR2:
On the other view(site), 98L's LLC looked sort of messy but on this view it looks, great!

Winds are at max 25mph, but very nice.


I think it looks better there cause it crops off all the ugliness of the southern other vorticity.

OCEANSAT caught 98L a few hours later. Definitely pulled together more.

Quoting swflurker:
How do like your crow?


I said the 00Z GFS run predicts that. I didn't say I did.
1318. JLPR2
Quoting Skyepony:


I think it looks better there cause it crops off all the ugliness of the southern other vorticity.



Yeah, you're right, but the increase in convection has probably helped 98L organize further, next pass should be interesting.
1319. JLPR2
AL, 98, 2011091906, , BEST, 0, 117N, 372W, 25, 1008, LO

AL, 99, 2011091906, , BEST, 0, 170N, 471W, 25, 1010, DB
Quoting swflurker:
Most of us here, unless an invest is numbered, don't really care about model runs beyond 96 hrs! So to save blog space, keep it short! TIA


I've had others say they like them. So I suggest you just put me on ignore. My posts are at least on topic.
Quoting swflurker:
P.S. Most of us have the links to the model runs. Unless someone asks, keep it to yourself!

You do not run the blogs. So I'll ignore you and move on. Goodnight, swflurker.
1325. JLPR2
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:

You do not run the blogs. So I'll ignore you and move on Goodnight, swflurker.


Well said.
Thats quite an MCC over southern Senegal, JLPR2.

It's too bad we don't have radar coverage in west Africa. I'd like to see how the storm clusters there compare with MCC's here.

I see the NHC has 60% for 98L.
1328. JLPR2
Looking better.

And with that I'm off to bed.
Goodnight everyone!
1329. JLPR2
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Thats quite an MCC over southern Senegal, JLPR2.

It's too bad we don't have radar coverage in west Africa. I'd like to see how the storm clusters there compare with MCC's here.



That spin has looked great for two days, I wonder if it'll hold together for one more.
If it does, it'll pretty much be an instantaneous CV storm, just add water. XD
Yup! There was one run of the GFS a few days ago that brought a system into the Atlantic about now, and turned it into a hurricane before it reached the Cape Verde islands!

I don't think that's ever happened and I doubt it will now. But I think it looks good!

Track will probably be NW and stay out to sea after the Cape Verdes.
This is a video clip of a depiction of the battle of Carrhae (June 9-12, 53 B.C) I really like the Suren (Saka) archers and their uniforms. You can see them very briefly at 34 seconds and from 6:22-6:35. The first segment is mostly introductory about the politics and background before the battle. The next two segments show the real action.

The heat really fried the Romans.

Alexander the Great was smarter. He invaded near the same location and fought the battle of Guagemala where he defeated the Persian empire---in October!
Don't know if posted yet but this is a pretty cool photo sequence taken from the ISS:

Link
Quoting farupnorth:
Don't know if posted yet but this is a pretty cool photo sequence taken from the ISS:

Link


That's very cool. I especially enjoyed the lightning under the clouds. It would've been better, however, if we knew which country was which though, lol.
morning
it looks certaun now that ophelia will affect the windwards and barbados later this week. the gfs is saying that the system will increase in forewaed speed and weakens in the caribbean. the other models have it moving slower.
Quoting stoormfury:
morning
it looks certaun now that ophelia will affect the windwards and barbados later this week. the gfs is saying that the system will increase in forewaed speed and weakens in the caribbean. the other models have it moving slower.
i think they will have it getting to cat 2 or 3 by friday but by tommorow i think it will fall apart dont get to excited
Morning Aqua and all,
Woke up at 2:30, thought the world was going to end. It was thunder!! *G* And lovely rain. The wind though was very strong, almost shook the house. I lay there listening to it howl. It's been quite a while since I've heard that.
1339. aquak9
Ais, that's good news. I see Houston got/is getting some rain too, and there's a hint of more throughout the week.
But I don't wish the 8.1 inches I got in a 6hour period on you.
Enjoy it. Heck, freeze some and save it for posterity.
Quoting aquak9:
Ais, that's good news. I see Houston got/is getting some rain too, and there's a hint of more throughout the week.
But I don't wish the 8.1 inches I got in a 6hour period on you.
Enjoy it. Heck, freeze some and save it for posterity.


LOL, love it!

Houston is getting even more than here according to the radar. Shreveport, LA had around 3.5 inches and Arkansas had around 5.5 I think? Not as much here, but that's all right. Houston looks like it will get a good amount.
Can someone explain how or why WU shows co-ordinates for 98 at 2a.m. at 11.7 37.2 yet stormpulse shows 9.7 39.5 at 2 a.m. As I am in Grenada, those two degrees make a big difference to my preps.
Quoting leicesterlass:
Can someone explain how or why WU shows co-ordinates for 98 at 2a.m. at 11.7 37.2 yet stormpulse shows 9.7 39.5 at 2 a.m. As I am in Grenada, those two degrees make a big difference to my preps.

me too am in grrenz whats poppin i wonder if the country is able to deal with any storm?
Good morning, 98L developing and Roke is going to strafe the east coast of Japan.
98L
caribbeantracker01:

me too am in grrenz whats poppin i wonder if the country is able to deal with any storm?
Although worse for the wear, we survived IVAN but don't think we will come back as quickly from another direct hit.
1348. WxLogic
Good Morning...
Quoting leicesterlass:
Can someone explain how or why WU shows co-ordinates for 98 at 2a.m. at 11.7 37.2 yet stormpulse shows 9.7 39.5 at 2 a.m. As I am in Grenada, those two degrees make a big difference to my preps.


Until a real center forms it's not a bad idea to keep watching it.
LinkNHCTropicalCyclonePage
Hi WxLogic, where do you think 98L is headed?
Quoting Skyepony:


Posted you some links back there. People's Doctors are sending their blood to labs & the results comeback with off the chart levels of hexane & other VOCs found in the dispersant used & oil vapors. You either haven't looked at the evidence or don't believe in Chemistry & hematology. Knowing people & a Dr in the area, I've heard some first hand stories..People have died. Also BP has payed no one for claiming to be sick..I don't see where people are scamming BP by saying they are sick..most are paying for detox out of pocket & then moving away with no compensation.


Lol. Oh the irony. In the meanwhile, they have no idea that we're having a widespread vitamin D deficiency that is costing us 4 TRILLION dollar in medical expense over the next 10 years!
Ooops.

"Leading UK polar scientists say the Times Atlas of the World was wrong to assert that it has had to re-draw its map of Greenland due to climate change.

Publicity for the latest edition of the atlas, launched last week, said warming had turned 15% of Greenland's former ice-covered land "green and ice-free".

But scientists from the Scott Polar Research Institute say the figures are wrong; the ice has not shrunk so much."

Naughty. Link

(however, before anyone tries to claim it's some conspiracy, note the following: 'The Times Atlas is not owned by The Times newspaper. It is published by Times Books, an imprint of HarperCollins, which is in turn owned by Rupert Murdoch's News Corporation.' Same conglomerate behind Fox.)
Off to my classroom. Everyone have a great Monday!
I have decide that the models are pretty much usless until you at least have a closed low, or possobibly even a depresion.

After they get a fix on the closed low they are pretty darn good for the first 4 days.

Now for our new RED circle, hum,
1355. WxLogic
Quoting Chicklit:
Hi WxLogic, where do you think 98L is headed?


Hi Chicklit... For at least the next 48 to 72HR it should be heading to the W to WNW (at times).

Here's the current steering (as you know) which shows a pretty respectable Bermuda High which extends over to the E GOM:



Can't disagree with 98L being a Carib. type system such as Emily.
Blog has a lot of new faces (and some familiar ones too).

Totally different complexion than a month ago.

Looks like we have two contestants.

For those of us in the SEUS, 98L looks like the one that could get closer, and 99L has the more aggressive intensity scheme.

Both look to be a threat to the Leewards.
I hope Levi makes a new video today. His last one is from the 16. He makes complated things SEEM simple.
1358. WxLogic
As far as conditions are concern... 98L is currently under a very little SAL environment:



Moisture wise... is located in the middle of a decent moisture (high PW) envelope that will assist in further enhancing the environment for development.





Finally, it has a quite decent and well shaped 850MB/700MB VORT, and which should be able to propagate to 500MB once it detaches some more from the Monsoonal TROF:



Quoting aislinnpaps:


LOL, love it!

Houston is getting even more than here according to the radar. Shreveport, LA had around 3.5 inches and Arkansas had around 5.5 I think? Not as much here, but that's all right. Houston looks like it will get a good amount.
The front split 100 miles west of Austin and 100 miles east of Austin, Austin and my area did not get even a trace of rain, now dry air has moved in. It is suppose to cool off later this week with no rain here. I will take the cooler weather since it was near 100 here Sunday.
Good Morning All.

Invest 98L is now up to Code Red, as I expected it would today. There is deep convection atop a well-defined center or circulation, as an earlier ASCAT pass caught. The invest is well on its way to tropical depression status, and it may become one tomorrow morning, if not today.



Meanwhile, poor 99L is still being sheared, but it is beginning to lessen over the system. It has very little thunderstorm activity, but a well-defined swirl, and it wouldn't surprise me to see 99L become a tropical depression eventually.

Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
The 00Z run of the GFS at 96 hours shows 98L continuing to move west at about the same strength near 12.5 N 52 W. As a tropical depression, and it seems to have been a tropical depression for 2 days at this point.

The Cape Verde low is now moving more northwestward near 20 N 29 W at about the same strength. There is a weakness in the ridge to its north.

The 3rd low is near 12.5 N 35 W and looking weaker.
For us in PUerto Rico "El grito De Lares" an insurrection for the independence of PUerto Rico,September 23, 1868 failed mostly because the help that were expecting in the island from the DR, some Ships full with weapons and men, couldn't cross the Mona Canal, their was a Hurricane crossing the Channel. A Weather fact that changed history for our island.
A lot of the models aren't showing as much shear as they were yesterday. In fact, the LGEM doesn't weaken the system through 120 hours.


1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1450 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

2. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIMITED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SMALL AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
wow go to bed with a low orange wakeup with a low red
And yeah, I'd look forward to reading a piece on warfare and weather. Many interesting examples over the years which have greatly impacted the course of history.
Quoting weatherh98:
wow go to bed with a low orange wakeup with a low red


Just wait until the "go to bed with a tropical storm, wake up with a rapidly intensifying hurricane" happens.

Does it every year..
New EPAC invest:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep962011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201109191149
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 96, 2011, DB, O, 2011091906, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP962011
EP, 96, 2011091906, , BEST, 0, 124N, 932W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Quoting Neapolitan:
New EPAC invest:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep962011.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201109191149
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 96, 2011, DB, O, 2011091906, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , EP962011
EP, 96, 2011091906, , BEST, 0, 124N, 932W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,


Expected.

That'll be Hilary.
One big example is the Battle of Britain - clouds obscured RAF pilots view when bombing targets around Berlin, accidentally hitting civilian areas. It was responded to, and the Blitz began, cutting short the battle. The Luftwaffe, according to one historian, may have ran out of time anyway due to the British weather.

Being an island does have significant advantages.

Little closer to the topic - the most fatal hurricane* of all time still to this date in 1780 wrecked several ships involved in the American Revolutionary War.

(* - not the most fatal tropical cyclone, that distinction unfortunately is given to the 1970 Bhola Cyclone. That is a little different - it wasn't a part of a war per se, but it was a huge impact in beginning the Bangladeshi Liberation War due to the poor handling by the Pakistani government at the time in response).
ex 97L looking better
Another good lines of storms came through Houston this morning (well good in that they brought more rain - bad if they knocked down any trees although ultimately it will do way more good than harm). Another. 83 inches of rain at my house which gets me close to 3 inches in 3 days.

The rain will let up in this part of Texas later this morning likely. We may have light rain the next two days with a slightly better chance of rain Thursday in advance of a cold front that definitely will cool things down and dry the air again.

Hopefully my Texas friends did as well as we did.
Well, I'm off to the place called High School.

Be back this afternoon (3:45ish).
Looks like Orlando's first front should arrive by Sunday/Monday-Our first taste of Fall!
Quoting Cotillion:
One big example is the Battle of Britain - clouds obscured RAF pilots view when bombing targets around Berlin, accidentally hitting civilian areas. It was responded to, and the Blitz began, cutting short the battle. The Luftwaffe, according to one historian, may have ran out of time anyway due to the British weather.

Being an island does have significant advantages.

Little closer to the topic - the most fatal hurricane* of all time still to this date in 1780 wrecked several ships involved in the American Revolutionary War.

(* - not the most fatal tropical cyclone, that distinction unfortunately is given to the 1970 Bhola Cyclone. That is a little different - it wasn't a part of a war per se, but it was a huge impact in beginning the Bangladeshi Liberation War due to the poor handling by the Pakistani government at the time in response).


It's a fascinating subject....there was a hurricane which had a big impact on our revolution....the details are fuzzy to me....but I once read a book about it...also, I remember the scene from "Patton' regarding the weather lifting...
1376. JLPR2
Waited till 2:30am to see 98L get bumped to red but now I'm a zombie at a university. :\
Thankfully I only have two classes.

Also, it seems like 98L isn't ready to be a TD just yet, needs to maintain heavy convection. As of now 98L is behaving in a similar way to Maria.
1378. Patrap
Morn Padre'
1379. hydrus
My mind ain't what it used to be...and, frankly, it was never that great....I recall Patton asking the Chaplain to pray for the weather to lift...and the Chaplain said "I'm not sure how the Almighty will receive a prayer to help us kill our enemies...and I'm pretty sure Patton replied with a string of profanity..."
Quoting weatherbro:
Looks like Orlando's first front should arrive by Sunday/Monday-Our first taste of Fall!

Not disagreeing with you, but where'd you see that? Intellicast's 10-day forecast for Orlando calls for highs from 87 to 90 through the middle of next week, along with lows from 72 to 75.

In my many years in South Florida, it's been fairly consistent: the first real chill of fall always shows up during the last 10 days of October. There may be a few teasers ahead of that, but I've never broken out the light jackets before then.
1382. ncstorm
The 00z Euro..a lot of lows off the NC coast.



1383. ncstorm
00Z CMC


06 Nogaps..Islands..
Quoting Neapolitan:

Not disagreeing with you, but where'd you see that? Intellicast's 10-day forecast for Orlando calls for highs from 87 to 90 through the middle of next week, along with lows from 72 to 75.

In my many years in South Florida, it's been fairly consistent: the first real chill of fall always shows up during the last 10 days of October. There may be a few teasers ahead of that, but I've never broken out the light jackets before then.


Well Accuweather.com has sunny-p cloudy skies with highs in the 80's and lows in the 60's by early next week on their 15 day outlook.

A few models want to stall it initially before another piece of energy chucks it on through here by mid-week.
one things for sure we've had northerly componant to our winds here in swfl for the lastbweek or so,imo floridas seasons over as the contental airmass should inhibit any strong tc should it headvtowards the area imo
Quoting Patrap:





The Siege of Bastogne was an engagement between American and German ... American forces were relieved by elements of General George Patton's 3rd Army. .... The American soldiers were outnumbered and lacking in cold-weather gear, ...

The Siege at Bastogne,

The Siege of Bastogne was an engagement between American and German forces at the Belgian town of Bastogne, as part of the larger Battle of the Bulge.

The goal of the German offensive was the harbor at Antwerp. In order to reach it before the Allies could regroup and bring their superior air power to bear, German mechanized forces had to seize the roadways through eastern Belgium.

Because all seven main roads in the Ardennes mountain range converged on the small town of Bastogne, control of its crossroads was vital to the German attack.

The siege lasted from 20-27 December when the besieged American forces were relieved by elements of General George Patton's 3rd Army.


You know, I just watched Band of Brothers (by HBO) the other day - first time in a while.

The 101st Airborne still disagree with the interpretation of Patton's 'rescue'.
Hi HT,

I was interested in this and checked the NHC database for PR, they don't show a storm within 2 deg of the island in all of 1868. Wikipedia doesn't mention a storm connection either. Do you have a link to the source of this information? Thanks.

Quoting HuracanTaino:
For us in PUerto Rico "El grito De Lares" an insurrection for the independence of PUerto Rico,September 23, 1868 failed mostly because the help that were expecting in the island from the DR, some Ships full with weapons and men, couldn't cross the Mona Canal, their was a Hurricane crossing the Channel. A Weather fact that changed history for our island.
98L very close to TD status IMO.

Ice Melting?
Link
1392. kwgirl
Good morning all. Despite Dr. M's topic of this blog, it looks like we have two invests to watch and they are keeping the discussion in that direction. Thank Goodness.

The weather here in the Keys this weekend definitely had a "fall" feel to it. At least in the Keys. Sunny and dryer weather. Even had some cool breezes off of building thunderstorms. Scattered clouds definitely kept the temps down somewhat. I guess that's why we call it partly sunny rather than partly cloudy. Now to watch the invests and hope they don't get too strong. The first of October in the Keys has had some history of bad hurricanes hitting, I believe in 1910 and 1911. We don't need anything like that again! I will be in and out looking at your valued opinions of these storms, but know it will take a while to get a good handle on them. I'm keeping everything crossed for luck. Luck to keep the storm away from the keys or at least make it a weak one. Have a good day!
98L looks good,may be reaching end of our atlantic lull of the season. i think Ophelia is only few dozen hours away
Quoting FortBendMan:
Another good lines of storms came through Houston this morning (well good in that they brought more rain - bad if they knocked down any trees although ultimately it will do way more good than harm). Another. 83 inches of rain at my house which gets me close to 3 inches in 3 days.

The rain will let up in this part of Texas later this morning likely. We may have light rain the next two days with a slightly better chance of rain Thursday in advance of a cold front that definitely will cool things down and dry the air again.

Hopefully my Texas friends did as well as we did.
The Austin area and within 80 miles got little to no rain. Good rains at San Antonio, around Waco and Houston also but that is about it for here, unfortunately the front Wed night is suppose to come thru dry here. Looks to be dry for quite some time after that next front, hot the next 3 days.
I'm NOT HAPPY THE RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO STRENGHTEN! 98L = EMILY = MARIA. Organazing then decoupling then reorganazing then being sheared.. and so and so and blablabla. BORING!!!!!!!!!!!!!! WHY THE ATLANTIC ALWAYS DO THAT. REALLY S..Ks
1396. hydrus
MJO forecast..
Quoting hydrus:
MJO forecast..


EXCELLENT!
Quoting stormpetrol:
98L very close to TD status IMO.


Definitely better organized than yesterday. Lets see what the future holds. It has been a weird year. Crown Weather seems to think that it will develop but because of the strength of the high, the llc will outrun the convection (we've see that before).
1399. hydrus
Link
Quoting SPLbeater:
98L looks good,may be reaching end of our atlantic lull of the season. i think Ophelia is only few dozen hours away
The predicted path is a bit unsettling...
NOAA's Climate Services division has released a drought map showing the departure in precipitation from normal for the period from October 1, 2010, to August 21, 2011:

Uh-oh

The Climate Prediction Center says that the hardest hit areas of this map will be in overall drought conditions for at least the next 12 months.

Not good...
1401. basti11
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Good Morning All.

Invest 98L is now up to Code Red, as I expected it would today. There is deep convection atop a well-defined center or circulation, as an earlier ASCAT pass caught. The invest is well on its way to tropical depression status, and it may become one tomorrow morning, if not today.



Meanwhile, poor 99L is still being sheared, but it is beginning to lessen over the system. It has very little thunderstorm activity, but a well-defined swirl, and it wouldn't surprise me to see 99L become a tropical depression eventually.



98L has a 2 in 10 chance to make it into the caribbean...imo 98L IS GOING TO BE A SEA RIDER...
1403. basti11
just like i said last week a major cold front is on the way for friday dropping temps for morning lows in the lower 40s n of the lake and the upper 40s south...the highs will struggle to reach the mid 70s...HURRICANE SEASON IS OVER for the GOM...only ones still in the soup or tampa south...i called this last week and people were calling me and idiot...i told you guys i know the GOM ansd i been following hurricanes for over 20 years...so you people along the gulfcoast can relax take a deep breath we beat the odds for 2011....the odds now of anyone getting hit by a hurricane along the gulfcoast range from 60/1 to 200/1...
1404. basti11
unless something develops in the WESTERN CARIBBEAN fla has nothing to worry about...i do think the action will pick up in the caribbean and threaten south fla next week...also the cuba and the bahamas are still in the soup so keep a watchful eye out..
1406. Drakoen
Here is a qualitative depiction of the upper level flow around 98L. Notice the upper level troughing to the north and far-off the northwest over by the Greater Antilles. Eastern Atlantic upper level ridge extends outward towards the large trough in the subtropical Atlantic meeting at the axis of upper level convergence, which could have an impact on 98L if it gains any poleward movement. One thing that I have been noticing on the the water vapor imagery on the Atlantic over the last couple of days is the amount of convection filling in and degenerating the upper level lows in to upper trough. We may see shear abate over the MDR over the next couple of days as the subtropical jet stream moves to the north.

Quoting Isometric:


Ahh...I sigh in disgust everytime this guy gives a forecast. Usually not even close.
Quoting basti11:
unless something develops in the WESTERN CARIBBEAN fla has nothing to worry about...i do think the action will pick up in the caribbean and threaten south fla next week...also the cuba and the bahamas are still in the soup so keep a watchful eye out..


I feel the exact same way. They are almost humerous :)
1408. basti11
Quoting Isometric:


Ahh...I sigh in disgust everytime this guy gives a forecast. Usually not even close.



you think what you want pal i been on the money...i dont even recognize you...you must be a newbie...i been on since 2004
1409. ackee
which storm was the most intresting to track this seasons ?

A IRENE
B KATIA
C LEE
D MARIA
E NATE
F EMILY
1410. HCW
1411. hydrus
Quoting Drakoen:
Here is a qualitative depiction of the upper level flow around 98L. Notice the upper level troughing to the north and far-off the northwest over by the Greater Antilles. Eastern Atlantic upper level ridge extends outward towards the large trough in the subtropical Atlantic meeting at the axis of upper level convergence, which could have an impact on 98L if it gains any poleward movement. One thing that I have been noticing on the the water vapor imagery on the Atlantic over the last couple of days is the amount of convection filling in and degenerating the upper level lows in to upper trough. We may see shear abate over the MDR over the next couple of days as the subtropical jet stream moves to the north.

Great post Drak..Things could get busy again...Quite a bit of season left and October can be fierce.
1412. 3211976
Ex 97L is stating to join  with 98L from the northeast.
Let's see if that is the last energy kick to start things rolling.

1413. hydrus
Quoting ackee:
which storm was the most intresting to track this seasons ?

A IRENE
B KATIA
C LEE
D MARIA
E NATE
F EMILY
Irene..Horrible to see the destruction tho..
Quoting hydrus:
Link The predicted path is a bit unsettling...


I like that map... noticed it was an experimental. Hope to see that one make more appearances.
Good Morning to all from Soo Cal
OK, I went in Vacation in June to DFW and 2 nights were rained out. That was the last rain until this weekend, where I also took the weekend off to head for the Hill Country.

I think I need to take more time off and travel the state.
Quoting basti11:



you think what you want pal i been on the money...i dont even recognize you...you must be a newbie...i been on since 2004


Been lurking here since the discussions of Katrina in 2005. I never post because I am by no means an expert at the weather. Looks like you fall into that same category it seems. Except you post comments that don't even come close to what really happens.


I am patient with stupidity but not with those who are proud of it. ~Edith Sitwell

1418. ackee
Quoting stormpetrol:
98L very close to TD status IMO.
SEEM LIKE jamaica, cayman, and cuba have had a quite seasons so far does seem like that wont change anytime soon unless SW carrb have some suprise
*98L rips 99L's clothes off*
*99L is now naked*
1421. hydrus
Quoting whepton3:


I like that map... noticed it was an experimental. Hope to see that one make more appearances.
Go to NOAA web site and click hurricane on the left column..You will find more maps like it there..
Quoting basti11:



ok its monday not in the mood to argue but every post you made so far this morning makes you really look stupid


Agreed. Monday morning is no time to argue. In fact, my stupidity is rapidly growing larger the longer I converse with you.

Where's that dawg-gone ignore button?
1423. basti11
Quoting Isometric:


Agreed. Monday morning is no time to argue. In fact, my stupidity is rapidly growing larger the longer I converse with you.

Where's that dawg-gone ignore button?



great press it do us both a favor pal
NEW BLOG
1425. jpsb
Quoting Cotillion:
Ooops.

"Leading UK polar scientists say the Times Atlas of the World was wrong to assert that it has had to re-draw its map of Greenland due to climate change.

Publicity for the latest edition of the atlas, launched last week, said warming had turned 15% of Greenland's former ice-covered land "green and ice-free".

But scientists from the Scott Polar Research Institute say the figures are wrong; the ice has not shrunk so much."

Naughty.

(however, before anyone tries to claim it's some conspiracy, note the following: 'The Times Atlas is not owned by The Times newspaper. It is published by Times Books, an imprint of HarperCollins, which is in turn owned by Rupert Murdoch's News Corporation.' Same conglomerate behind Fox.)
Does not matter, 15% of Greenland ice cover melted in the last 12 years is now "a fact" in the popular press. So that is that, it's a done deal. Good luck trying to convince believers other wise.
NEW BLOG!!!!!
The sea ice (Climate Change) scare tactic is getting old quick. The creator of the internet (Al Gore) has the largest carbon footprint in all of TN. Apparently he's living proof that manmade global warming is BS... Put down your progressive kool-aid and sip on the real deal Holyfield story below! Nuff said!
===================================

World Atlas ice loss claim exaggerated: Credit: Reuters/Svebor Kranjc

By Nina Chestney

LONDON | Mon Sep 19, 2011 3:27pm EDT

LONDON (Reuters) - The Times Atlas of the World exaggerated the rate of Greenland's ice loss in its thirteenth edition last week, scientists said on Monday.

The atlas, published by HarperCollins, showed that Greenland lost 15 percent of its ice cover over the past 12 years, based on information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Colorado in the United States.

The Greenland ice sheet is the second biggest in the world and significant shrinking could lead to a global rise in sea levels.

"While global warming has played a role in this reduction, it is also as a result of the much more accurate data and in-depth research that is now available," HarperCollins said on its website on Monday.

However, a number of scientists disputed the claim.

"We believe that the figure of a 15 percent decrease in permanent ice cover since the publication of the previous atlas 12 years (ago) is both incorrect and misleading," said Poul Christoffersen, glaciologist at the Scott Polar Research Institute (SPRI) at the University of Cambridge.

"We concluded that a sizable portion of the area mapped as ice-free in the Atlas is clearly still ice-covered."

Other scientists agreed.

"These new maps are ridiculously off base, way exaggerated relative to the reality of rapid change in Greenland," said Jeffrey S. Kargel, senior research scientist at the University of Arizona.

The Times Atlas suggested the Greenland ice sheet has lost 300,000 square kilometers in the past 12 years, at a rate of 1.5 percent per year.

However, measurements suggest this rate is at least 10 times faster than in reality, added J. Graham Cogley, Professor of Geography at Trent University, Ontario, Canada.

"It could easily be 20 times too fast and might well be 50 times too fast," he added.

Last year, a U.N. committee of climate scientists came under fire for bungling a forecast of when Himalayan glaciers would thaw.

The panel's 2007 report, the main guide for governments in fighting climate change, included an incorrect projection that all Himalayan glaciers could vanish by 2035, hundreds of years earlier than scientists' projections.